2 % this year to close to 3 % in both 2000 and 2001. consumer price increases, as measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices ( hicp ), have recently resumed their upward trend, as expected. in october the annual rate of change in the overall hicp was 1. 4 %, up from 1. 2 % in september and august owing to higher price increases for food and non - energy industrial goods. the impact of higher oil prices on energy prices in the hicp, which had accounted for most of the upward pressure since june 1999, was countered in october by more moderate increases in other energy components. some additional counterweight to the upward movement in goods prices came from a further moderation of increases in prices in the services sector. in general, the overall upward trend is expected to continue until early 2000 as a result of the increase in oil prices since spring 1999. forecasts available suggest that price increases will nevertheless remain below 2 % in the course of 2000 and 2001. however, the actual developments will very much depend on the behaviour of a number of factors, and in particular on wage developments remaining in line with price stability. in addition, our assessment has to take due account of prevailing uncertainties. on the upside, these relate to, inter alia, the behaviour of money and credit aggregates, the developments in oil prices and the path of the effective exchange rate, all of which are closely monitored with regard to their impact on price stability. on the downside, main factors are linked to the effects of deregulation and liberalisation. in conclusion, the current monetary policy stance should ensure a sustainable expansion of non - inflationary economic activity in the euro area. in line with its monetary policy strategy, the governing council will remain vigilant with regard to any risks to price stability arising either from domestic or from external sources and act in a timely manner. let me now give the floor to the vice - president to introduce some of the additional topics we discussed during our meetings. the governing council today also took a decision on the subject of the minimum reserve system. as you may be aware, interbank liabilities are not subject to reserve requirements. in this respect, the ecb allows those credit institutions which cannot provide evidence of their interbank liabilities - in the form of debt securities issued with an agreed maturity of up to two years or money market paper to apply a standardised deduction to the aforementioned liabilities in the computation of their reserve base.

since january 1999 this standardised deduction has been set at 10 % for both types of securities. today, following a review of new statistical evidence available, the governing council decided to increase the standardised deduction to 30 %. this decision shall have effect as from the determination of the reserve requirement to be fulfilled in the maintenance period starting on 24 january 2000. a separate press release presenting this decision and some background information on standardised deductions from the reserve base will be issued to you here today. the governing council today approved the ecb ’ s budget for 2000, which gives the ecb the green light to recruit further staff needed to support the ongoing activities of the ecb. this will bring the ecb ’ s staff to slightly over 1, 000 ; the number of staff employed to date stands at 750. at its meeting on 18 november 1999 the governing council approved the publication of an update of the book on “ european union balance of payments statistical methods ” ( the “ b. o. p. book ” ). this important book documents the statistical methodologies applied in member states in compiling balance of payments statistics and, as such, improves the transparency of the compilation of euro area statistics. this new version includes additional chapters on : ( i ) investment income ; ( ii ) estimation methods, especially for goods, investment income and portfolio investment ; ( iii ) financial derivatives ; and ( iv ) the stocks compiled for international investment position statistics. the book was published on the ecb ’ s web site at 4 p. m. yesterday and will be available from the ecb in hard copy format during the course of next week. finally, let me inform you that the general council discussed the monetary policy objectives, strategies and intentions of the non - participating eu central banks against the background set by the monetary policy of the eurosystem. this is the second time that such an exercise has been undertaken since the ecb was established.