magud n and s sosa ( 2010 ), ‘ when and why worry about real exchange rate appreciation? the missing link between dutch disease and growth ’, imf working paper series wp / 10 / 271. menzies g and g heenan ( 1993 ), ‘ explaining the recent performance of australia's manufactured exports ’, rba research discussion paper no 9310. shifting the dial : 5 year productivity review, report no. 84, canberra. quesnay f ( 1759 ), tableau economique, reprint, 3rd edition, macmillan, 1972, london. smith a ( 1776 ), an inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, straham and cadell. solow rm ( 1987 ), ‘ we ’ d better watch out ', new york book review, p 36. productivity commission ( 2017 ), stone j ( 1981 ), ‘ australia in a competitive world : some more options ’, stan kelly lecture, melbourne, 16 november. available at < http : / / esavic. org. au / 385 / images / 1981 _ johnstone _ competitiveaustralia. pdf >. van der ploeg f ( 2011 ), ‘ natural resources : curse or blessing? ’, http : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2017 / sp - ag - 2017 - 11 - 15. html journal of economic literature, 49 ( 2 ), pp 366 – 420. 15 / 16 16 / 11 / 2017 where is the growth going to come from? | speeches | rba endnotes [ * ] this speech has benefited from helpful discussion with and assistance from liz kendall. several other colleagues also made some useful suggestions, including jarkko jaaskela and tom rosewall. these figures are actually for the 1959 / 60 financial year, the first year for which australia has quarterly national accounts comparable to current data. the share has fallen more noticeably since the peak if the calculation is expressed as of manufacturing exports as a share of gdp, but this is affected by the cycle in the terms of trade. the physiocrats believed that wealth was derived from agriculture. for example, quesnay ( 1759 ) described how the economy functions, deriving wealth only from agriculture. see also hughes ( 1980 ) for a discussion. the productivity commission also replaced the bureau of industry economics and the economic planning advisory commission. its first chair, gary banks, delivered the stan kelly lecture in 2013 ( banks

of their assets. the net result is that they have been well funded, with minimal need to issue bonds over the past year. accordingly, their offshore issuance has dropped noticeably and this has led to a sizeable reduction in their transactions in the swap market ; as shown in graph 1, the major banks in australia have not issued senior unsecured us dollar bonds since february 2020 ( though there has been some issuance of tier 2 bonds ). this reduction in demand to borrow australian dollars in the swap market has seen the basis on both short - term and long - term swaps fall to low, or even negative, levels. indeed, for a brief period, the premium on very short - term swaps dropped very sharply, to as low as −175 basis points for 1 - week swaps ( graph 2 ). in other words, the cost of swapping australian dollars into us dollars became quite expensive. in recent years, this significant increase in the cost of obtaining us dollars in short - term swaps had been commonplace for some other currencies ( e. g. euro and yen ) at year - end, but not for the australian dollar ( graph 3 ). however, this year the effect of elevated year - end demand for us dollars in swap markets on the australian dollar basis has been much larger than normal. this is consistent with the smaller supply of us dollars from the australian banks than in the past. graph 2 graph 3 the spot market for australian dollars the reserve bank's various policy measures – including the bond purchase program – have also had an influence on the value of the australian dollar. over the 2 months leading up to the introduction of the reserve bank's package of policy measures in november, australian interest rates declined relative to those abroad and the australian dollar depreciated by 5 per cent in trade - weighted terms ( graph 4 ). the policy measures have placed, and continue to place, downward pressure on the australian dollar, including the extension of the bond purchase program announced in february. graph 4 since early november, however, other factors have contributed to an appreciation of the australian dollar, which is currently around the upper end of its range of recent years. in particular, there has been a general improvement in the outlook for global growth, which has been associated with an appreciation of a range of currencies against the us dollar and a marked increase in many commodity prices. indeed, the price of iron ore has increased by around 40 per cent since