the federal open market committee, with the help of r & s, has been wrestling with for a long time. while i could be wrong, as of today, i do not foresee that some all - powerful artificial intelligence will be able to perfectly balance the risks of doing too little or too much. therefore, i expect that long into the future, we'll be relying on the knowledge and good judgment of the people of r & s to weigh the risks and to help in providing options to monetary policymakers so that they can make informed decisions. in closing, congratulations on a century of service to the fed and the american people. i have every expectation that the next 100 years of the division of research and statistics will be just as integral to the prosperity and well - being of the american people as it has been to date. thank you! references brainard, william c. ( 1967 ). " uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy, " american economic review, vol. 57 ( may ), pp. 411 – 25. dessaint, olivier, thierry foucault, and laurent fresard ( 2023 ). " does alternative data improve financial forecasting? the horizon effect, " journal of finance, forthcoming. greenspan, alan ( 2003 ). " monetary policy under uncertainty, " speech delivered at a symposium sponsored by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, jackson hole, wyoming ( august 29 ). keynes, john maynard ( 1921 ). a treatise on probability. london : macmillan. knight, frank h. ( 1921 ). risk, uncertainty and profit. boston : houghton mifflin. powell, jerome h. ( 2018 ). " monetary policy in a changing economy, " speech delivered at " changing market structure and implications for monetary policy, " a symposium sponsored by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, jackson hole, wyoming ( august 24 ). schmanski, bennett, chiara scotti, clara vega, and hedi benamar ( 2023 ). " fed communication, news, twitter, and echo chambers, " finance and economics discussion series 2023 - 036. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, may. soderstrom, ulf ( 2002 ). " monetary policy with uncertain parameters, " scandinavian journal of economics, vol. 104 ( march ), pp. 125 – 45. 1 the views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the board of governors or the

a barrier to the use of electronic payments, the federal reserve has recently proposed modifications to regulation e that would eliminate the requirement for paper receipts on small - dollar payments. 8 the federal reserve must, however, also be mindful of how changing payment practices can affect risk in the payments system and take regulatory action, when appropriate. for example, the federal reserve recently modified regulation cc to reallocate the liability for unauthorized remotely the term " conversion " generally refers to " check - to - ach conversion, " in which data from a check is used to create an electronic funds transfer that is cleared and settled over the ach network. such transactions include accounts receivable ( arc ), point - of - purchase ( pop ), and back - office conversion ( boc ) transactions. check 21 became effective in october 2004. before check 21, banks were required to present the original paper check to the paying bank unless the paying bank had agreed to accept presentment of the check electronically. see board of governors of the federal reserve system, report to the congress on the check clearing for the 21 century act of 2003, april 2007. http : / / www. federalreserve. gov / boarddocs / rptcongress / check21 / check21. pdf ( 491 kb pdf ) see 71 fr 69500 ( 72 kb pdf ) ( december 1, 2006 ). st created checks among depository institutions, shifting liability to institutions that are better positioned to understand and mitigate those risks. 9 clearly, both regulators and the private sector have a role to play in the continuing evolution of the payments system. regulators must continue to evaluate and adjust their rules in light of new realities in the marketplace. at the same time, the private sector must put forward sound and prudent innovations that address the needs of the marketplace, including the need to control risk. characteristics of successful innovation our conference organizers have challenged us to think about " what ’ s next. " one tool to help understand the future is to analyze why certain innovations have been successful in the past. infrastructure changes have been one source of successful innovation. much of the innovation in the early days of electronic payments involved building new electronic processing systems for ach and card systems, and then gradually expanding electronic access to these core systems. the goal of these infrastructure changes was typically to speed up payments and reduce the societal costs of dependence on paper. following the implementation of check 21, the banking industry and the reserve banks are again