, our analysis demonstrates that even if growth were to return to between 2 and 2. 5 percent per year – an optimistic scenario – debt as a share of gdp would continue to rise under the bis central bankers ’ speeches current fiscal balance and debt structure. this underscores that the current regime is not sustainable. second, while fiscal reform is definitely needed, restoring economic growth remains a crucial ingredient to achieving a sustainable fiscal regime. puerto rico slipped into recession in 2006, and a decade later a recovery has yet to materialize. any fixed level of debt will grow even more burdensome if the economy is shrinking. consequently, this long deep recession has exacerbated the island ’ s fiscal woes. much of last week ’ s analysis focused on a key contributor to economic growth – the labor force – so let me point out a few conclusions that i drew from that work. puerto rico ’ s outmigration remains an important concern, and is both a cause and an effect of the economic decline. although the skills of those who have migrated to the mainland look much like those who remain, the departure of tens of thousands of residents each year represents a huge drain on puerto rico ’ s potential growth. among those who remain on the island, low labor force participation, an aging population and relatively poor preparation for skilled jobs represent significant headwinds to growth. while our analysis seems to paint a somewhat dark picture of economic conditions on the island, it ’ s important to remember that there are significant opportunities for action that can leverage the island ’ s strengths to foster economic growth. these include its bilingual adult population, an open economy occupying a central position in the caribbean, wide experience as host to international corporations, and close economic ties to the u. s. mainland. it is in exactly this spirit that we present this analysis – in the hope that it will help policymakers focus on actions that can help to restore growth and prosperity to the commonwealth. going forward, we will stay engaged in this effort. middle - wage jobs returning let me conclude by returning to the theme of the labor market. job growth is essential to the vitality of an expansion, but the types of jobs being created are also important. while the labor market has continued to add jobs at a solid pace, many remain concerned about a lack of job opportunities for the middle class. indeed, growth of middle - wage jobs has been lackluster for the past few decades, with gains occurring disproportionately in higher -

william c dudley : “ remarks at the new york fed ’ s economic press briefing on the regional economy ” opening remarks by mr william c dudley, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the economic press briefing on the regional economy, federal reserve bank of new york, new york city, 18 august 2016. * * * jaison abel, jason bram, hunter clark, giacomo de giorgi, richard deitz, jack gutt, andrew haughwout and joseph tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. good morning and welcome to the new york fed ’ s economic press briefing. i am pleased to have this opportunity to speak with the journalists covering our region. you are an important communication channel to the people in our district. this morning i want to focus on economic conditions in our region, giving particular attention to job growth. i also want to discuss our ongoing work on puerto rico. as always, what i have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the federal open market committee or the federal reserve system. the new york fed is deeply committed to serving our region. this commitment manifests itself in several ways. we produce business surveys and local economic indexes to help our constituents track regional economic conditions. my staff writes papers and blog posts on economic issues important to our region. we meet with a number of advisory boards comprised of community and business leaders. and, i regularly visit different parts of our district so that i can meet with local businesses, community development professionals, and the people who live and work here. this on - the - ground intelligence is valuable to me and helps inform my view of the region and the economy, which, in turn, plays an important role in shaping my outlook on policy. let me now talk a bit about job growth in our region. job growth in the region nationally, the labor market has added 2. 4 million jobs over the past year. and, the strong jobs reports released over the past two months have helped allay concerns that arose earlier this year that job growth was beginning to stall. indeed, these reports reinforce my view that labor market conditions continue to improve. turning to conditions closer to home ; job growth in our region has generally been somewhat below the national pace. one important exception is new york city, where job growth has been strong, despite the relatively sluggish performance of the financial services industry. in the past, the city has counted on job growth from wall street to fuel economic growth