are judged to be roughly balanced over the projection horizon. globally, on the upside, the boost in confidence as advanced countries restore fiscal sustainability could generate greater - than - expected offsets to the fiscal consolidation. on the downside, global private demand around the world, including in the united states, may be insufficient to sustain the recovery. in canada, there are important two - sided risks to the outlook for private demand. on the upside, private demand might have greater momentum than expected, reflecting strong confidence and easy credit conditions. on the downside, it is possible that households reduce expenditures more than currently anticipated or that the recovery in business investment is further delayed. since april 2010, with improvements in the economy, the bank has ended its extraordinary conduct of monetary policy. on 20 april 2010, the bank removed its conditional commitment, which had provided considerable additional stimulus during a period of very weak economic conditions and major downside risks to the global and canadian economies. on 1 june 2010, the bank raised its target for the overnight rate by one - quarter of one percentage point to 1 / 2 per cent. as part of that interest rate decision, the bank re - established its normal operating framework for the implementation of monetary policy. on tuesday, 20 july 2010, the bank raised its target for the overnight rate by a further one - quarter of one percentage point to 3 / 4 per cent. these decisions leave considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in canada, the strength of domestic spending, and the uneven global recovery. given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook, any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments. with that, tiff and i would be pleased to take your questions.

the moment. on the positive side of the ledger, many firms that were heavily affected by the shutdowns are now rehiring and lifting hours as the restrictions are eased in most of the country. this is most clearly evident in the retail, hospitality and arts & recreation sectors ( graph 2 ). some other firms have also hired large numbers of people as they respond to the increase in demand as a result of the pandemic. the supermarkets are a good example of this. https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2020 / sp - gov - 2020 - 07 - 21. html 2 / 13 21 / 07 / 2020 covid - 19, the labour market and public sector balance sheets | speeches | rba graph 2 but on the other side of the ledger, there are also factors working in the opposite direction. through our business liaison we are hearing that many firms, including in the construction sector and in professional services, were able to keep many of their employees over recent months because they had a pipeline of work to complete. but as new orders have declined, this pipeline is drying up. if it is not replaced soon, hours worked in these businesses will decline further, just at the same time that other parts of the economy are coming back to life. some firms have also used recent months to reconsider their business models. in some cases this is because of the decline in demand that is likely to persist, but for others there has been a reassessment of how they manage their workforce. some firms have identified new opportunities and there has been plenty of innovation. yet despite this, restructuring and the uncertainty about future demand is likely to weigh on the labour market as it recovers. adding to this complicated picture is the fact that the unemployment rate is likely to increase further, even with the recovery underway. this is because many of the people who lost their jobs over recent times have been classified as not in the labour force and so are not counted as unemployed. as the labour market continues to improve, we expect many of these people will start looking for jobs, and thus be classified as rejoining the labour force. this will push up the measured unemployment rate at the same time that the share of the working - age population with a job is also rising. we saw an https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2020 / sp - gov - 2020 - 07 - 21. html 3 / 13 21 / 07 /