will be slightly more unutilised resources in the swedish economy in the coming years than we had previously assumed. our forecast of resource utilisation in sweden has also been affected by the revisions statistics sweden recently made to the national accounts. these indicate that productivity growth in the economy was higher than estimated during the greater part of the 1990s. this in turn indicates that the economy's long - term potential growth rate may be slightly higher. to summarise, i can conclude that the pictures of economic activity in sweden and in the rest of the world are similar to the extent that there appear to be some unutilised resources and that growth will not exceed its long - term potential over the coming years. developments are currently being restrained by the unease over iraq. there is also still great uncertainty regarding the size of the adaptations that remain after the earlier rises in share prices and other asset prices. some figures indicate that most of the adjustments have now been made, but the picture is not unambiguous. nevertheless, a recovery is under way, after what must be regarded in many areas, and particularly in sweden, as a fairly mild slowdown. our forecasts indicate an average gdp growth over the coming years in line with the economy's long - term sustainable rate and resource utilisation is expected to remain largely unchanged over this period. this means that economic activity and the labour market are not expected to put any great pressure on prices and wages at present or in the coming years. there is, of course, a risk that developments will follow completely different paths than those we anticipate in our main scenario. this could in turn entail both upside and downside risks for inflation. the downside risk that concerns us most is connected to international developments. there are problems in the euro area in particular that could lead to a weaker development. the upside risks are mainly linked to domestic price - setting and wage formation. the rise in energy prices pushes up costs in other parts of the economy and can spread. it could also affect expectations and wage demands. we are facing collective wage bargaining rounds in the autumn, which will play a decisive role for the future of the economy. all in all, we have come to the assessment that the risk spectrum is neutral ; we see equally large risks for a lower inflation path than in our main scenario as for a higher path. repo rate lowered 0. 25 percentage points the riksbank's total assessment is that inflation measured at the rate

##cies and corporate scandals in the usa. gradually, unease increased because of security policy developments. the financial unease gradually infected the real economy ; confidence among companies and consumers began to fall in several countries over the summer and it became increasingly clear that total demand had been negatively affected. this contributed to enabling the riksbank to lower the repo rate twice during the autumn, measures that were in my assessment quite fitting under the circumstances. what we can observe today, compared with one year ago, is that the questions baffling forecasters are roughly the same and that they are dominated by the question of how far the adaptation process following from the stock market bubble has come. today an additional factor making assessments more difficult is the threat of war in the middle east. we do not know whether there will be a war or how it will all end. the crisis also creates uncertainty that makes it difficult to correctly interpret economic signals. in addition, the more prolonged the crisis is, the greater the risk that the actual uncertainty will have a negative effect on the real economy. i shall now turn towards the future and discuss developments over the coming 1 - 2 years. right conditions for a recovery in the usa … one difference now compared with the situation one year ago is that the adaptation of the imbalances in the us economy has probably progressed further. consolidation of balance sheets has continued, productivity is strong and normal business activity patterns indicate that the conditions should be relatively favourable for an increase in industrial production during the spring. low stocks levels in relation to sales and an investment ratio that is below the long - term trend would indicate this is the case. an expansionary economic policy provides further support for the optimism. however, the question most people are asking themselves now, as they were in 2002, is whether the adaptation to the imbalances has reached a sufficient stage to enable a broad, lasting increase in demand that can take over as the driving force behind a production increase. it is much too early to be able to give a clear answer here. if we look at households in the usa, we can see that they have become more passive since the december inflation report was published. the explanation could be the security policy unease and the still weak stock markets. continuing high oil prices will also cut into disposable incomes. however, the expansionary economic policy should partly counteract these effects. all in all, i believe that the picture of a relatively prolonged recovery in the usa, where growth gradually increases over the year and