front, as seen in the fact that the unemployment rate has declined to around 3. 5 percent, and is likely to follow an improving trend with the economy expected to continue growing at a pace above its potential. in this sense, the decline in crude oil prices is a supporting factor. therefore, trend inflation rates are expected to rise steadily going forward and, as the effects of the decline in crude oil prices on a year - on - year basis dissipate, the 2 percent cpi inflation is likely to be achieved. the timing of this could be either earlier or later to some extent, depending on future developments in crude oil prices ; however, based on the assumption that crude oil prices are expected to rise moderately from the recent level, the cpi is likely to reach 2 percent in or around fiscal 2015 ( chart 1 ). needless to say, the bank maintains its policy stance that it will make adjustments as necessary without hesitation, when there are changes in trend inflation, in order to achieve the price stability target at the earliest possible time. the bank will not respond to developments in crude oil prices themselves, but in conducting monetary policy, it will closely monitor how they affect inflation expectations – or, in other words, whether conversion of the deflationary mindset will nevertheless proceed. thank you very much for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches

the size of the total system declined slightly in 2008 but increased subsequently to reach usd 67 trillion in 2011 ( equivalent to 111 per cent of the aggregated gdp of all jurisdictions ). the global estimate for the size of the shadow banking system has increased by some usd 5 to 6 trillion since last year. • the shadow banking system ’ s share of total financial intermediation ( which includes banks, insurance and pension funds, public financial institutions and central banks ) has decreased since the onset of the crisis and has remained at around 25 per cent in 2009 – 2011, after having peaked at 27 per cent in 2007. in broad terms, the bis central bankers ’ speeches aggregate size of the shadow banking system is around half the size of banking system assets. • there is also a considerable diversity in the relative size, composition and growth of the non bank financial intermediaries across jurisdictions. for example, the size of the shadow banking system in us and a number of other jurisdictions continues to be large relative to the regular banking system. the us has the largest shadow banking system, with assets of usd 23 trillion in 2011, followed by the euro area ( usd 22 trillion ) and the uk ( usd 9 trillion ). • there is also considerable divergence among jurisdictions in terms of : ( i ) the share of non - bank financial intermediaries ( nbfis ) in the overall financial system ; ( ii ) relative size of the shadow banking system to gdp ; ( iii ) the activities undertaken by the nbfis ; and ( iv ) recent growth trends. • even during the period immediately following the global financial crisis ( 2008 – 11 ), the shadow banking system continued to grow, although at a slower pace, in seventeen jurisdictions ( half of them being emerging market and developing economies undergoing financial deepening ) and contracted in the remaining eight jurisdictions. • among the jurisdictions where data is available, interconnectedness risk tends to be higher for shadow banking entities than for banks. shadow banking entities seem to be more dependent on bank funding and are more heavily invested in bank assets, than vice versa. shadow banking in india notwithstanding the data constraints in actual evaluation of its size, the shadow banking sector in india is still small in size compared to its counterparts in advanced economies. in 2011, assets of other financial institutions ( ofis ) in india were usd 375 billion vis - a - vis bank assets of usd 1518 billion and gdp of usd 1766 billion. the assets of the shadow banking system accounted for 21 percent of