. another example would be the financial services industry, where fintech is driving gains in productivity. statistical agencies are hard at work on this. as discussed in the paper by crouzet and eberly, digitalization has led statistical agencies to underestimate investment, particularly in intangibles. a consequence is that central banks are working with estimates of potential output today that may be revised up in the future. the recent historical revisions to us gdp data, which improved the measurement of investment in intangibles such as software, indicate that this could be important. a similar exercise in canada has delivered a large upward revision in investment, and, hence, potential output, beginning in 2014. this makes one wonder about what revisions may be forthcoming for 2015, 2016 and, of course, today. the spread of digital technologies may also help explain the slow, measured growth of international trade. we know that cross - border supply chains have complicated the task of gathering accurate data on trade. digital technologies are making it even easier to fragment production globally. and digital ordering, payments and service delivery are making it easier for transactions to occur that fall below customs reporting thresholds or are missed altogether. the point is that our ability to measure the impact of digital technology is continually playing catch - up with the technology. at the same time, the diffusion of digital technologies to other sectors is itself a gradual process. we have seen a similar scenario before — it was several years before we could measure the rise in aggregate productivity that followed the increase in spending on information and communications technology in the 1990s. positive revisions to the history of potential output could help explain the underperformance of inflation over the past five years. this underperformance has occurred in a wide swath of economies, both advanced and emerging. these countries have, on average, a high level of internet penetration — a possible proxy for the pace of adoption of digital technologies. related to this, empirical evidence of the so - called amazon effect on inflation, like the walmart effect of 20 years ago, has so far been limited. but we need to bear in mind that this work relies on estimates of potential output that may be revised up in the future. of course, it would be considered risky to conduct monetary policy based on an assumption that we were enjoying a pickup in aggregate supply. central bankers would generally require empirical evidence of the phenomenon before embracing it, because the consequences of being 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches wrong could be

was overcome, inflation was tamed, the public finances were brought under control. this is clearly another story, one that took a benign turn thanks also to the many infrastructural changes that had made it possible for monetary policy to play its proper role within a transparent and well - organised financial architecture. it is natural, today, to take it for granted that a transparent and well - organised financial architecture necessarily includes a smooth, well - functioning and economical payment system for clearing and settlement. but this is a relatively recent achievement, one that has benefited greatly from the information and communication technology revolution. in the mid - 1980s the payment system, and not only in italy, was rather neglected and far from well - organised. tommaso was convinced that central banks ’ tasks should comprise not only money creation franco modigliani and tommaso padoa - schioppa, “ la politica economica in una economia con salari indicizzati al 100 % o piu ”, in moneta e credito, no. 117, march 1977, and “ the management of an open economy with ‘ 100 % plus ’ wage indexation ”, in essays in international finance, princeton university, no. 130, december 1979. bis central bankers ’ speeches and inflation targeting but also improving the mechanisms of monetary circulation, instituting reliable and efficient infrastructures, and what is now called “ transaction banking ”. in a market economy the costs of a dysfunctional payment system could be just as great as those deriving from volatile inflation rates. this was particularly evident in italy, where at the time the settlement of cheques or the completion of a credit transfer were long and cumbersome processes that involved a fragmented set of bilateral arrangements among banks. the reforms that tommaso padoa - schioppa promoted at the end of that decade successfully bridged the gap between italy ’ s system and that in place in the other major economies. in a first phase, from 1989 to 1993, the reform involved the system for netting in central bank money, with the launch of dedicated projects for various payment types ( customer paper - based and electronic, inter - bank, foreign exchange, securities trading ). he then promoted a national, centralised real - time gross settlement system in central bank money that exploited the most advanced technologies and that would quickly make central banks the leaders in this sphere. eventually, the system was adapted to be fully integrated into the network of euro