in our arsenal. then we would have location - based measures. let me tell you that i ’ m still a bit sceptical about focusing only on real estate prices. why? firstly, we must keep in mind that we have a mandate to ensure the stability of the entire financial system. secondly, stability in the real estate sector is not sufficient enough for financial stability in general. yes, trends in the real estate sector are extremely important. for prudential policy they are important to the extent that they relate to developments in credit, balance sheets of financial institutions and, the financial system as a whole. but at the same time – the real estate sector is not the only one to keep an eye on. imbalances in other asset markets, vulnerabilities in the banking sector – these also demand our equal attention. let us look at the expansion of credit which is most likely the culprit of “ speeding ” prices. some colleagues distinguish between “ productive ” and “ non - productive ” credit, because not every credit contributes equally to economic growth. a loan to finance a business is much more productive than a mortgage to buy an old apartment. non - productive credit instead of fuelling the economy might be felt as a heavy load. so should macroprudential policies be active in steering credit structure towards some desirable levels? for example, imposing different risk weights on different types of credit? what measures do we already have in order to start implementing such policy? today we will hear about prudential policy experiences in different countries. and i ’ m excited to open the floor to needed and well - targeted discussions. 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches i wish you an interesting day and fruitful exchange of views. and now i gladly pass the microphone to our keynote speaker, our good friend governor ingves. please, stefan, the floor is yours. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

plots ” that show the fomc participants ’ modal outlooks for the short - term rate trajectory. if the participants were to provide confidence bands around their paths, they probably would be very wide because the economic outlook is uncertain and the linkage between the instrument of monetary policy – the federal funds rate target range – to financial market conditions is loose and variable. in conclusion, i believe that the fomc is continuing to make progress towards our dual mandate objectives. however, i have become somewhat more uncertain about the growth outlook given the lack of a sharp rebound in economic activity in recent months from the weak first quarter. with respect to inflation, as long as we see further improvement in the labor market and anchored longer - term inflation expectations, i am somewhat less worried that inflation will stay too low. thus, i continue to expect that monetary policy normalization is likely to begin later this year. thomas laubach and john williams ( 2003 ), “ measuring the natural rate of interest, ” review of economics and statistics 85 ( 4 ), 1063 – 70. the frbny dsge model also estimates that the natural rate of interest is currently close to zero. see marco del negro, marc giannoni, matthew cocci, sara shahanaghi and micah smith, why are interest rates so low? liberty street economics blog, may 20, 2015. with the benefit of hindsight, one could argue that the federal reserve should have raised short - term interest rates more aggressively over this period. bis central bankers ’ speeches longer - term, i expect that the trajectory of short - term interest rates after lift - off will likely be relatively shallow. this is due, in part, to my reading that monetary policy today is not as accommodative as one might think judging just from the level of short - term rates. but, the path will ultimately be determined by how the economic outlook evolves and how financial market conditions respond to monetary policy. i expect that there will be many twists and turns in the road ahead. as we make this journey, i will do my best to explain what i am seeing and how i think i might react as conditions change in the future. thank you so much for your kind attention. i would be happy to take a few questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches