will involve making this kind of intermediate, more qualitative assessment. the implied forward rates on which the forecast in the inflation report published on 23 february was based reflected a 15 - day average as per 9 february. on 16 february, an unexpectedly low cpi outcome was published for january. this led to a downward movement of the implied forward rate, which we stated that we considered reasonable in the press release in connection with the interest rate decision. at present, the implied forward rate is slightly higher than it appeared immediately after publication of the unexpectedly weak cpi outcome for january. however, in the short term the differences are marginal. the current implied forward rate path entails the repo rate remaining unchanged until summer and then subsequently being increased gradually. we executive board members will thus take a stance with regard to which monetary policy conclusions can be drawn from the information received since the end of february at our meeting on 27 april. let me say a few words here on my own view of the situation. the february inflation report contained the forecast that international economic activity would remain relatively stable over the coming years. since the report was published, the oil price has risen by almost 10 dollars per barrel which is clearly higher than the forecast in the report. the forward prices for oil have risen, which indicates that there may also be reason to expect a higher oil price for some time to come. experiences from recent years are that the international upturn in economic activity has been surprisingly resilient to increases in the oil price. revised national accounts for the united states have been received, which show that growth was marginally stronger at the end of 2005 than was indicated by preliminary figures. the most recent labour market statistics for the united states indicate a continued favourable development, although the monthly statistics for household consumption indicated some slackening of demand. the purchasing managers index for the manufacturing industry in march indicated a small decline for the united states, while the index continued to improve for the euro area. other indicators for the euro area such as the european commission ’ s surveys show a positive development recently. growth in asia has been stronger than we had assumed. all in all, my opinion is that international economic activity appears slightly stronger now than we assessed in the february inflation report. for sweden, the assessment in the inflation report was that gdp growth would be relatively high in the coming years. statistics sweden has since then published national accounts for the fourth quarter of 2005. these figures show that gdp growth was somewhat lower than expected, although the outcome for earlier periods

government finances are in good condition. for several years now the public sector – unlike earlier periods of large american current account deficits – has shown a surplus in savings. all in all, there are thus many factors indicating that confidence in the american economy can quickly be recovered. if this is true, the economic decline will not last very long. the most likely situation is therefore that although the high level of indebtedness, the large deficit in savings in both the household and corporate sectors, combined with over - investment in certain sectors, will subdue growth for a time, there will be no dramatic or prolonged economic recession. however, in order to increase saving in the economy and thus correct the constant deficit on the current account, it is necessary that growth is not primarily driven by increases in consumption. net export and investment should instead be the motors behind growth to a larger extent than before. bringing about this state of affairs requires a weaker dollar exchange rate. one can therefore look with scepticism on the idea that tax cuts will bring the american economy out of its decline. how will sweden be affected? the american economy affects developments in the rest of the world through many different channels, with exports to the usa as the most direct channel and the one where the effects are easiest measured. however, exports to the usa are only responsible for a couple of per cent of gdp in sweden and have a similar significance for the euro area. spread effects via the expectations that largely govern consumption, investments and the stock market are probably much greater, although more difficult to measure. nevertheless, there are numerous indications that the swedish economy is more sensitive to developments in the usa than the economies in the euro area. for instance, shareholding is more widespread among swedish households and many of the major " swedish " multinationals – in which swedes have invested a substantial part of their shareholdings – are very dependent, directly or indirectly, on developments in the usa. developments in the swedish economy in recent years have shown many similarities to developments in the usa. rapidly rising share prices, a strong gdp growth driven by both investment and consumption and an increase in indebtedness is a description that fits both the swedish and american economies in recent years. however, the increase in economic activity began later in sweden and has not really had the same speed as that in the usa. moreover, the rise in sweden was preceded by a period where adjustments following the crisis at the beginning of the 1990s had forced down investment and consumption considerably