future investment implied by capital goods orders in the us and euro area ( slide 4 ). in addition to the decision maker panel survey and findings of the the bank ’ s own agents, a range of survey results suggest that brexit related uncertainty is an important factor weighing on investment in the uk despite otherwise favourable conditions for capital expenditure ( slide 5 ). relative to other components of demand, exports have benefited from sterling ’ s depreciation and stronger than expected global demand. at the same time and not withstanding their role in increasingly integrated global value chains, growth in imports has been sluggish, meaning that net trade has provided support to gdp growth. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches taking all of these together leads me to conclude that, although the resilience of growth in the wake of the referendum has been welcome, the broad channels through which we would have expected demand to adjust to a vote to leave the eu are now operating. as a result, gdp growth has slowed from average quarterly rates of 0. 7 % in 2014 and 2015 to 0. 4 % more recently. for those of you who, like me, have had to assess and categorise past uk slowdowns as either u - or v - shaped, i consider what we are witnessing as more of a saucer - shaped slowdown and pretty unusual for that ( slide 6 ). given the long horizon over which the effects of brexit could play out, we are likely to be on the flat part of the saucer for some time – as embodied in the mpc ’ s forecast for gdp growth which remains at 0. 4 % per quarter over the 3 - year forecast horizon, conditional on households and companies basing their decisions on the expectation of a smooth adjustment to new trading arrangements. if realised, that will leave the economy about 2 % smaller by 2020 than the may 2016 mpc forecast would have implied. and that growth shortfall is in spite of the fact that global growth has strengthened more than expected in the may 2016 mpc forecast. the biggest risk i see to that outlook for demand is around the resolution of the current uncertainty about our eventual trading arrangements and the path that will be followed to reach them. were that uncertainty to be lifted, i can see a case for why uk whole economy demand could grow more strongly, more in line with, for example, recent manufacturing indicators. equally, were uncertainty to persist at current levels

’ s withdrawal from the eu. but to be successful, monetary, and indeed financial stability, policy must be effectively delivered. that requires the efficient implementation of decisions. and it requires stable and effective core sterling markets and payments infrastructure. the bank has a long history of outstanding execution of decisions, of scanning the horizon for emerging vulnerabilities in markets, and of using its position to address them. in keeping with this history, these are things i will prioritise in my term as deputy governor for markets and banking. beyond define, decide, deliver, there is of course ‘ describe ’. improving our communications internally and externally is a key priority of the bank ’ s vision 2020 strategy, because better communication will support our mission to deliver monetary and financial stability. a new focus of our communications is on schools. we started last week in merseyside and over the next year bank staff are visiting 200 schools covering 9 % of the pupil population. but engaging with traditional stakeholders remains important, on which note let me take some of your questions. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches references bailey, a, ( 2017 ) ‘ the future of libor, ’ speech given at bloomberg, available at : https : / / www. fca. org. uk / news / speeches / the - future - of - libor broadbent, b. ( 2017 ) ‘ brexit and interest rates, ’ speech given at the london school of economics, available at : http : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / publications / documents / speeches / 2017 / speech1009. pdf carney, m. ( 2017 ) opening remarks to the bank of england ‘ independence – 20 years on ’ conference, available at : http : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / publications / pages / speeches / 2017 / 999. aspx cunliffe, j. ( 2017 ) ‘ the phillips curve : lower, flatter or in hiding?, ’ speech given at the oxford economics society, available at : http : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / publications / documents / speeches / 2017 / speech1008. pdf all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches