their historical lows, as the key factors that were mainly thought to have driven these rates down over the past forty years - such as demographic shifts, stagnant productivity growth, increased market power, higher risk aversion and sustained demand for safe assets - do not seem likely to revert sufficiently to produce a significant and lasting increase in real interest rates in the coming years. 1 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches on the other hand, recent market indicators suggest that equilibrium long - term real interest rates have risen. also, some new estimates of the natural interest rate - defined as the " long - run " equilibrium rate after shocks have dissipated - indicates that this rate may have risen in several advanced countries in the past few years. as i will discuss in a while, this shift could indicate that at least some structural drivers of real interest rates have changed direction or that the natural interest rate is adjusting to a new economic environment possibly characterized by higher levels of public debt. the future evolution of the natural interest rate has significant implications for monetary policy. accurately assessing the long - run trend of the natural rate is essential for central banks, as this rate serves as a crucial reference point for monetary policy. the difference between the real interest rate and the natural rate provides valuable insight into a central bank's monetary stance and aids in evaluating various policy options. however, the natural rate is an abstract concept, and its estimates often carry considerable uncertainty, particularly in the post - pandemic period. since the natural rate is not directly observable, understanding its determinants has become vital for effective monetary policy. i am confident that the fruitful discussions we will have during this conference will deepen our understanding of these determinants and clarify where natural rates and other relevant interest rates may stand in the years ahead. in these opening remarks, i would like to take a moment to briefly review the key empirical long run trends we have observed in interest rates, as well as the primary explanations put forth in the literature. following that, i will walk you through the main agenda of the conference. 3. drivers behind the trends in interest rates over the past forty years ( up to the covid - 19 pandemic in 2020 - 2021 ), we have seen a remarkable decline in nominal interest rates across the globe. for example, during the 1981 to 2020 period, nominal returns on u. s. treasury bonds, both short and long term, dropped significantly. the 2 - year treasury bills experienced a

changes in the economic environment, with no unnecessary dogma or rigidities. in order for this process to continue over time it needs to be balanced and operate in the context of an inflation rate in line with the target. otherwise it will become just an unsustainable acceleration calling for drastic adjustments with its related costs in lost output and employment. evidently, as a country we continue to face challenges, particularly related to maintain sustainable growth rates for long periods and not create tensions on price stability. guaranteeing low and stable inflation is the best contribution that the central bank of chile can make to prosperity in this new century of independent life that is beginning for our republic. thank you. figure 1 ees : inflation expectations ( percent ) inflation indicators ( annual change, percent ) - 3 - 3 ipc ipcx at december 2010 a diciembre del 2011 one year ahead two years ahead ipcx1 sources : central bank of chile and national statistics institute. figure 2 monetary policy interest rate ( percent ) real interest rate gap : real mpr minus indicated neutral interest rate ( percent ) - 3 - 3 - 6 - 6 rate implicit in the cbc's forecasting models rate resulting from consumption - based model source : central bank of chile. figure 3 imacec ( index, 2003 = 100 ) contribution to gdp growth ( real annual change, percentage points ) - 5 - 5 - 10 - 10 - 15 iii iii iii - 15 gfcf inventory change government consumption private consumption net exports gdp ( 1 ) seasonally - adjusted series. ( 2 ) goods and services exports minus goods and services imports. source : central bank of chile. figure 4 loans by type of credit ( annual change, percent ) lending interest rates ( percent ) - 10 - 10 - 20 - 20 consumer corporate housing consumer, 181 days to one year consumer, over three years commercial, 30 to 89 days commercial, 181 days to one year housing, over three years ( 1 ) provisional data for august 2010. ( 2 ) sum of commercial and foreign trade credits. ( 3 ) weighted averaged rates of all operations performed in the month. ( 4 ) non - indexed rates. ( 5 ) uf - indexed rates. sources : central bank of chile and superintendence of banks and financial institutions. figure 5 gdp growh in selected regions and countries ( 1 ) ( annual change, percent ) monetary policy rates in the world ( percent ) - 5 - 5 - 10 - 10 america latina ee. uu