domestic economy. after all of these are put together into the “ oven ”, the raw forecast emerges. but this is not the forecast that is presented to policy makers or the public. the economists examine the result, 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches and exercise judgement regarding the likelihood of various variables, factors that the models do not cover, and more. the final result is the forecast that was published two days ago and is presented before you. this forecast serves as an ingredient — important though not exclusive — in the formulation of the situational assessment that forms the basis for the monetary committee ’ s decisions. the forecast indicates expected growth of 3. 5 percent this year ( as we said, the past is still before us ), 3. 2 percent in 2017 and 3. 1 percent in 2018. it indicates a gradual slowdown in private consumption after an exceptional increase this year, growth in public consumption of more than 4 percent this year and 1. 5 percent in the next two years, in line with the two - year budget, and a gradual acceleration of exports supported by a gradual recovery that the international organizations project in world trade. together with the central scenario in the forecast, the research department also presents the uncertainty that exists in the forecast. this is illustrated by a fan chart, which shows 66 percent of the distribution of possible outcomes. the uncertainty in the forecast is derived from uncertainty in the exogenous variables inserted into the model, chiefly in relation to the global environment. by the end of 2017, the breadth of outcomes ranges from growth of slightly more than 2 percent to about 4. 5 percent. another important component in assessing the picture based on which policy is formulated is the development of the relevant exchange rate ( the effective exchange rate ), which has been in a trend of appreciation for the past two years. this was affected not only by basic economic forces, but also by the very accommodative policies of our main trading partners ( which, according to the updated assessment of the federal funds rate, is expected to become less accommodative in the coming year ). according to the forecast, inflation is expected to return to within the target range in 2017, but the range of uncertainty surrounding the timing of that return to the range is broad. in addition to the forecast regarding the macroeconomic picture, the forecast presented by the research department to the committee also includes the path of the interest rate that is consistent with the macroeconomic picture emerging from the forecast and that supports

john iannis mourmouras : implications of the uk vote to leave the eu – a view from the south panel intervention by professor john iannis mourmouras, deputy governor of the bank of greece, at the bank of italy - omfif main meeting, rome, 22 september 2016. * * * intervention in a panel meeting with lord ( norman ) lamont, former uk chancellor of the exchequer, ambassador antonio armellini, and philip middleton, deputy chairman, ernst and young, omfifadvisory board, moderated by fabio pannetta, deputy governor, banca d ’ italia, at the banca d ’ italia - omfif main meeting in rome ( italy ) on 22 september 2016. disclaimer : views expressed in this speech are personal views and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions i am affiliated with. ladies and gentlemen, it is a great honour for me to take part in such a distinguished panel. on this very important matter of implications of the uk vote to leave the eu, i would like to focus on a couple of issues : firstly, on the potential effects of brexit on the dynamics of european integration and indeed offer a southern point of view and, more particularly, make five points from the south on the brexit vote. secondly, i will examine the implications of brexit on what central banks do in terms of monetary policy, including the ecb. 1. a southern view on brexit ’ s implications for the eu the european union is currently facing crises on multiple fronts ( anaemic growth, high unemployment, persistently low inflation close to deflation, a debt crisis, an ongoing migrant crisis ), but brexit represents the biggest medium - to long - term challenge of all. point number 1 : a deeper look into some european failures that influenced the brexit vote euroscepticism is now a strong sentiment in europe. populist, authoritarian parties are in government or in a ruling coalition in nine ( 9 ) countries of the eu. this is an alarming figure. referendums in italy and hungary, and national elections next year in the netherlands, the czech republic, france and germany, are expected to reinforce this eurosceptic mood. eurocrats should take note of this reality. beyond the obvious economic concerns which triggered the uk vote to leave the eu, everyone agrees that the eu needs to address the issue of its democratic deficit and accountability. this is obviously