of licensing and enforcement before moving to the bank of zambia. to say something about my academic qualifications, i graduated with a bachelor of laws degree from university of zambia, thereafter a master of laws degree from harvard where i was a fulbright scholar and a phd from university of london, centre for commercial law studies, queen mary and westfield college. allow me to mention that all my studies were done on scholarship. bis central bankers ’ speeches apart from my work, i am also involved in service to the public and to the church through sitting on various bodies. i was not appointed to this position my chance ; it took effort and hard work to be noticed. i believed in myself and knew i had to put in the best to achieve anything i wanted to achieve. so what message do i carry for you this afternoon? my theme is that you can do it! to you the students, i want to encourage you to see yourselves as leaders. you are the future of this nation. you are part of the cream that need to push this country forward. i would like you to realise that academic and professional qualifications are an integral part of settings yourselves up for one ’ s life. by being here, you are establishing a path for your successful career whether as an employee or an entrepreneur. the knowledge that you are gaining is assisting in developing and enhancing your ability to think and perceive as well as manage the various situations that life offers. the outcome of your academic development will obviously have a positive impact on your family, society, culture and country at large. make sure you take full advantage of this opportunity. it sets the stage for the rest of your future. if you graduate from here with poor grades will mean you have limited your access to top notch institutions, should you, for example, wish to get an advanced qualification. you are limited even to apply for scholarships. and in situations of competition, the best will be selected. zcas is one of the renowned institutions in zambia. one thing you must realise is that not everyone has the opportunity to be enrolled in an institution of higher learning to obtain an academic or professional qualification. therefore, you must make the best of this opportunity to be here at zcas and indeed, be thankful to god. many of your friends are not able to have this opportunity. i am also aware that for quite a good number, it is a great sacrifice by your parents to send you here. you should ensure that this investment pays off by putting in your best. discipline for many of

achieving an inflation rate of 2½ per cent two years ahead. norges bank ’ s views on the inflation outlook are presented three times a year in the inflation report. our projection for inflation in the period ahead is presented as well as our assessment of the balance of risks surrounding this projection. the executive board ’ s updated assessments are presented in connection with the monetary policy meetings every six weeks. immediately after each meeting, the bank issues a press release and holds a press conference. the key interest rate is set on the basis of an overall assessment of the inflation outlook two years ahead. our inflation projections and our views on the balance of risks associated with these projections provide a summary of these assessments. norges bank ’ s inflation projection is our assessment of the most probable outcome of the rise in cpi two years ahead. in setting interest rates we also place emphasis on the probability distribution – or the balance of risks – surrounding the projection. therefore, we also publish our judgement of the risk associated with our own projections. the phasing in of petroleum revenues has to be counteracted by a tighter monetary policy than would otherwise be the case. this may be accomplished through an adjustment of the interest rate, an appreciation of the krone or both. small countries have experienced fairly wide exchange rate fluctuations. the swedish krona has depreciated by more than 10 per cent since summer 2000. the australian dollar has weakened by over 30 per cent since spring 1997. the uk, canada and new zealand have also experienced wide exchange rate fluctuations. the norwegian krone, on the other hand, has been relatively stable. a monetary policy that is oriented towards low and stable inflation will contribute to stabilising aggregate demand and output. as a result, the central government budget will not normally have to be used actively to stabilise the economy. an increase in unemployment that is due to a higher rate of increase in labour costs than implied by productivity growth cannot be offset by low interest rates or higher public spending and tax cuts, but requires changes in the functioning of the labour market. the planned use of petroleum revenues implies that the sheltered sector will lay claim to a larger share of the labour force. this will probably cause a decline in manufacturing employment. the ensuing deterioration in competitiveness may lead to restructuring. in the long run, monetary policy cannot influence overall employment or its distribution across industries. norway ’ s terms of trade flucture widely. this is largely attributable to variations in the oil price. however,