. the real gdp growth rate for the july - september quarter of 2015 increased by an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 1. 4 percent, which exceeds the potential growth, due mainly to an increase in domestic private demand. that for the octoberdecember quarter registered minus 1. 1 percent on an annualized quarter - on - quarter basis, due partly to the effects of irregularly warm weather. as for the outlook, although the sluggishness in exports and production will probably remain for some time, domestic demand is likely to follow an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending being maintained in both the household and corporate sectors, and exports are expected to increase moderately on the back of emerging economies moving out of their deceleration phase. thus, japan ’ s economy is likely to be on a moderate expanding trend. specifically, the economy is expected to continue growing at a pace above its potential through fiscal 2016. thereafter, through fiscal 2017, it is projected to maintain its positive growth, although with a slowing in its pace to around a level somewhat below the potential growth rate, due mainly to the effects of a front - loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to and after the consumption tax hike planned in april 2017. according to the bank ’ s january 2016 outlook for economic activity and prices ( hereafter the outlook report ), the medians of the policy board members ’ forecasts for the economic growth rate – 1. 1 percent for fiscal 2015, 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2016, and 0. 3 percent for fiscal 2017 – were more or less unchanged from the forecasts presented in october 2015. 2. prices next, i will talk about price developments. the year - on - year rate of change in the consumer price index ( cpi ) for all items less fresh food has generally been about 0 percent, with the decline in energy prices and the increase in non - energy prices broadly offsetting each other. the rate of change for all items less fresh food and energy – one of the indicators that capture the underlying trend in the cpi – has remained positive for 28 months and has been at a level above 1 percent recently. in addition, looking at annual price changes in all cpi bis central bankers ’ speeches items less fresh food, the share of price - increasing items minus the share of price - decreasing items has shown a marked increase since spring 2015, albeit with some fluctuations. with regard to the outlook, the year - on

, causing a contraction of 5. 2 % in curacao whilst the effect of the closing of only the isla refinery would mean that the real gdp of curacao would contract by 2. 5 %. private consumption will drop because of lay - offs, which is a result of a decline in activities in other important export sectors, namely tourism, wholesale & retail trade, and transportation. meanwhile private investment will drop since no investments will be taking place at the isla refinery. public consumption will contract as the government will receive less tax income. exports will drop and will result in lower foreign exchange revenues due to the decline in the refining fee, transportation activities, tourism activities and re - exports by the free - zone companies. imports will decline as well, due to a decline in domestic spending, less tourism spending, less free - zone re - exports and no import of goods and services by the isla refinery. the inflation rate will increase as the non - oil merchandise imports from venezuela will be replaced by imports from other countries at a higher price. the unemployment rate will rise with 0. 5 %. the international financial services sector has been an important pillar of the economy of curacao since the 1930. however, over the past twenty years, the sector has experienced a gradual decline due to among other things, the termination of the tax treaty with the united states and the abolishment of the us foreign withholding tax. also, increased competition from taxexempt jurisdictions has affected our international financial services sector. one of the main tax measures that had an impact on the sector, was the enactment of a new fiscal regime in 2001 to be in full compliance with the policies of the oecd for fair tax practices. the nfr ended the distinction between onshore and offshore entities. however, institutions that already existed in 1999 have been given a transitional phase of 20 years to be able to adapt to the new offshore regime. after the exemption period, offshore companies will be subject to the onshore tax regime. this grandfather clause will end in 2019. these pie charts depict the total foreign exchange income from the export of goods and services by economic sector. although its contribution has declined over the past 20 years ( 6 % compared to 18 % ), the international financial services sector still remains an important economic pillar of curacao. overall, the sector represents approximately 6 % of the total gdp of curacao. the sector provides labor intensive high - skilled employment to more than 1, 000 persons and