, published following our meeting last week. most of my fomc colleagues expect the economy to grow between 5. 8 percent and 6. 6 percent in 2021, and the median projection is that the unemployment rate will fall to 4. 5 percent by the end of the year. my own expectation is for strong growth and a rebound in the labor force participation rate once the economy fully reopens. this would include schools resuming fulltime in - person learning, which would enable parents who reduced their hours or left the workforce to oversee virtual education and childcare to return to fulltime work. as of february, the level of payroll employment is still 9 - 1 / 2 million below the pre - pandemic peak and more than 11 million below where it would have been based on the trend before the pandemic. i believe that job creation will continue, but i still see considerable uncertainty about the strength of that improvement and how long it may take to reach the federal reserve ’ s maximum - employment goal. i am also concerned that the extended period of economic restrictions will contribute to further business closures. severe restrictions on mobility and commerce were implemented in many areas to control the spread of the virus, but they came at a very high economic cost. there is some evidence, which i will discuss in a moment, that small businesses fared better in states with less - stringent restrictions. while the headline unemployment rate has continued to fall, the number of people who report being unemployed for more than six months has continued to rise, suggesting a risk of scarring — meaning that some 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches individuals could see an erosion of their skills and their connections to the labor market. although economic activity in the travel, leisure, and hospitality sectors has continued to lag the recovery, there have been some bright spots elsewhere. two that are particularly important for oklahoma are agriculture and energy. commodity prices for some crops have increased dramatically in the past few months, particularly soybeans and corn, reflecting higher export demand and some limits on global supply. increased prices are providing better cash flow and improved credit terms for farmers. agricultural manufacturers and other suppliers are reporting order backlogs through the summer months, and there are some reports of firmer or increased prices for farmland. meanwhile, the recent surge in oil prices has returned west texas intermediate back up near the levels of early 2020, when it began to fall sharply. the rebound in prices reflects the improved outlook for the global economy given significant

recent years by the banking supervision department remained in place. one of the main channels through which accommodative monetary policy succeeded in impacting on economic activity is credit to households. this credit increased, its cost declined, and the reduction of the interest rate thus led to a marked reduction in the price of consumer credit, and subsequently to the increase of such credit, which in the end supported the increase in private consumption by a relatively rapid prate in recent years, primarily in 2015. private consumption, which makes up 55 percent of gdp, was the dominant factor in contributing to growth this year, and partly offset the weakness in activity that derived from the decline in exports and investments. this was also reflected in employment. budgetary policy in 2015, which was based primarily on the interim budget, reflected a decline in the cyclically adjusted deficit – that is, the budget net of the effects of the deviation of growth from the long term rate – to 2. 7 percent of gdp. as such, the policy reduced the fiscal stimulus ( that is, its countercyclical effect ). this is a reasonable policy given that the level of the cyclically adjusted deficit is still relatively high, and that the accommodative monetary policy supported activity. the decline in the deficit, together with a relatively rapid increase in the gdp deflator, and the erosion pf the cpi - indexed debt, supported the continuation of the decline in the share of public debt in gdp, the opposite of its trend in most advanced economies, and of their average level. the interest payment burden remains high relative to the oecd average, but is in a trend of decline, which has accelerated in the past two years. this decline derives not only from the decline in the debt ratio but also in the active policy of the ministry of finance accountant general ’ s division, which acted to roll over the debt at today ’ s low rates, and also to reduce the roll over risk by extending the duration of the debt. the reduction of the debt repayment burden – from about 4. 5 percent of gdp in 2010 to about 2. 5 percent of gdp today frees up significant resources for other uses. the deficit ceiling that was set for the 2016 budget and the reduction of vat and corporate taxes bis central bankers ’ speeches in response to enhanced tax collection that derived to a great extent from the strength in real estate transactions, are liable to halt the continuation of these positive developments. the success in dealing with the