, petroleum - related exports, which account for about a quarter of mainland exports, will likely decrease due to a decline in global offshore investment. it will likely take time for the effects of lower oil prices on the mainland economy to become fully visible. so far, unemployment has only shown a slight increase. a flexible labour market appears to be curbing the rise in unemployment. employment growth has also remained firm, although an increasing mismatch between the number of unemployed and job vacancies points towards more slack in the labour market. in regions and sectors closely linked to the petroleum sector, unemployment has increased. bis central bankers ’ speeches weaker growth prospects may reduce the willingness of mainland firms to invest. on the other hand, improved competitiveness will provide a basis for expanding capacity in some sectors. in addition, housing investment is likely to support overall investment activity. house price inflation remains high. growth in household consumption has been moderate in recent years and household saving has reached a high level, in spite of low interest rates. the pension reform and uncertainty surrounding economic developments have probably induced households to increase saving. overall, we expect growth in private consumption to remain moderate ahead and the saving ratio to remain at a high level. debt - to - income ratios for norwegian households are high, reflecting a long period of rapidly rising house prices. low interest rates on loans to households are expected to fuel house price inflation, while prospects for weaker income growth and somewhat higher unemployment may have a dampening impact further ahead. for some time, based on experience from the recent financial crisis, financial stability considerations have to some extent influenced monetary policy. put in other words : we have been “ leaning against the wind ”. as a small open economy, norway is highly influenced by economic developments abroad. many advanced economies have experienced a difficult time since the global economy was severely hit by the financial crisis. global growth is expected to pick up. the fall in oil prices is a positive factor for the world economy. but the picture is mixed. in the us, the recovery seems to be on a firm footing. developments in the uk and sweden, two of norway ’ s major export markets, have also been positive, although inflation remains a challenge. the situation in the euro area appears to be more problematic. a large portion of the workforce is unemployed and production equipment stands idle. inflation is worryingly low. through winter, a number of central banks have undertaken unconventional monetary policy easing, and market expectations with regard to key rates in trading partner countries

bought by the oil companies. consequently, these operations should not have any impact on the real exchange rate. in 2015, government spending of petroleum revenues over the budget is estimated to be higher than the revenues received in kroner. government petroleum revenue spending over the budget has increased over time, in pace with the increasing size of the fund. and recently, the government ’ s net cash flow from the petroleum sector started to decline. as a consequence, norges bank will move from a position of selling surplus kroner to selling foreign currency in order to finance petroleum revenue spending. however, the effect on the real exchange rate will still be determined by the amount of petroleum revenues spent over the fiscal budget. it is not norges bank ’ s intention to influence the krone exchange rate through these foreign exchange transactions. accordingly, purchases are distributed evenly through the year. at the end of each month, norges bank announces the size of the daily purchases or sales of kroner for the coming month, based on estimates of oil revenues and fiscal spending. the amount can be interpreted as our best estimate for the remaining months of the year. the economic outlook let me now turn to the outlook for the norwegian economy. we are about to leave behind us 15 golden years. the norwegian economy has made use of favourable tailwinds and seized the opportunities offered. the other side of the coin is an economy that has become increasingly dependent on oil, and thereby more vulnerable to changes in oil prices and petroleum revenues. and as we know, oil prices have fallen by nearly 50 percent since last summer. the vulnerability manifests itself in several ways. a large share of the business sector and the labour market is linked to the petroleum sector in norway and in other countries. revenues received from the state ’ s direct financial interest in the petroleum sector ( sdfi ). bis central bankers ’ speeches petroleum investment, which has long been an important driver of growth in the norwegian economy, is now expected to fall in the years ahead. the fall in oil prices in recent months has accelerated and amplified an announced decline in the activity level on the norwegian continental shelf. lower oil prices reduce oil company cash flows and reduce the profitability of new investments. field development projects that are now underway will be affected, although to a limited extent. in addition, some new projects may be postponed or cancelled. lower demand for goods and services from the petroleum sector has spillover effects on the mainland economy, with a dampening effect on labour demand