its somewhat more negative position at the start of this year, lagging the other domestic demand components. external demand, meanwhile, will maintain its positive contribution to gdp, but with lower contributions than during the crisis years. several risk factors cloud this central scenario of recovery. first, the growth outlook for the euro area continues to point to moderate increases in activity in the coming quarters, likewise subject to downside risks. moreover, further headway in fiscal consolidation will be inevitable, which does not allow expansionary budgetary policies to be applied in the short term. in these circumstances, it is of great importance that any tax reform should prove conducive to economic efficiency and growth. with regard to private debt, credit may not be expected to recover at the aggregate level until economic growth has done so. meanwhile, the necessary deleveraging should continue to be compatible with the positive restructuring of credit, as attested to by the latest developments. in conclusion, i would say that economists and, even more so, those of us who work in the monetary and financial field, tend to focus on the short or very short term. but i would like to close my address with a reflection on the medium and long term. the twin engines of economic growth are demographic growth and increased productivity. our worrying population trend responds to complex economic, social and cultural factors that cannot be rapidly changed. but that does not mean that action should not be taken, as far as possible, to improve this trend. productivity growth is directly related to capital formation, which is in turn connected to saving. accordingly, any policy wishing to be effective in enhancing productivity must be underpinned by incentives to save and the lifting of any related institutional obstacles, something which is also connected to the reforms that boost competitiveness and legal certainty. spain must persist with reform policy geared to these objectives. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

the agenda, to identify best practice, avoid unnecessary fragmentation and help achieve according to boar et al. ( 2020 ), as of late 2019 central banks representing a fifth of the world ’ s population reported that they were likely to issue cbdcs very soon. [ https : / / www. bis. org / publ / bppdf / bispap107. pdf ] “ an update on digital currencies ”, a speech by governor lael brainard at the federal reserve bank of san francisco, august 2020. [ https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20200813a. htm ] “ payments in a digital world ”, a speech by christine lagarde at the deutsche bundesbank online conference on banking and payments in the digital world, september 2020. [ https : / / www. ecb. europa. eu / press / key / date / 2020 / html / ecb. sp200910 ~ 31e6ae9835. en. html ] interoperability across borders. in this sense, i believe the role of international organisations and standard - setters, such as the bis in its role as a hub for central banks, could prove essential. cross - border payments : another topic of growing interest regardless of its importance, expanding access to a central bank ’ s balance sheet by making a cbdc available to households and non - financial corporations is only one of many ways in which technological innovation may help enhance the monetary and payment system. indeed, given how dynamic the payments market is nowadays, we need to keep abreast of and closely monitor any private initiatives that may overlap in the field of action of a cbdc. this is because they may ultimately prove to be equally viable options for achieving the same goals or remedying some of the common and long - standing shortcomings that traditional channels have faced. in that respect, the current landscape of evolving market infrastructures poses several telling examples, but in the interest of time i will concentrate today on one particular area, namely payments that have a multi - country dimension. cross - jurisdictional payments enjoy growing interest all over the world, not only because of their potential as a test bed for new technologies, but also due to the growing relevance of e - commerce, international trade and migration. 5 indeed, according to the cpmi chair, sir jon cunliffe, global financial transfers amounted to well