the past. as i have indicated in previous speeches, this approach to forward guidance can backfire if the policy is misunderstood. 5 5 for example, if the public hears that the policy rate will be lower for longer, it may interpret this news as policymakers saying that they expect the economy to be weaker for longer. if the message is interpreted in that way, then the forward guidance will not succeed and may even weaken current spending. i believe we should think of forward guidance as part of systematic approach to decisionmaking and not an independent policy tool that attempts to bend expectations. as monetary policy becomes normalized, we have the opportunity to ensure the public understands that forward guidance is an integrated part of a systematic approach to policy. so, what additional steps can we take to increase transparency? i think that the fomc could improve communication and transparency by preparing a more comprehensive monetary policy report on a regular basis, perhaps quarterly. currently, the chair testifies before congress twice a year and submits an accompanying written report. in addition, the chair holds press briefings four times a year when participants present their economic projections. i think there is an opportunity to combine these efforts into a more comprehensive report on monetary policy as many other countries do. the report would offer an opportunity to reinforce the underlying policy framework and how it relates to current and expected economic conditions. ideally, this report would incorporate a discussion of robust systematic rules i referred to a moment ago. such a discussion would provide the opportunity to inform the public about the expected future path of policy conditioned on how the economy evolves. publishing a monetary policy report with an assessment of the likely near - term path of policy rates, in conjunction with its economic forecast, would also provide added discipline for policymakers to stick to a systematic, rule - like approach. providing information about how that path is likely to evolve forces policymakers to think more deeply and systematically about policy. communication about that path, in turn, gives the public a much deeper understanding of the analytical approach that guides monetary policy. while i am discussing transparency, i also want to touch on another misconception. some commentators express the view that dissent causes dissonance and therefore confuses the communications. in fact, letting the public know about our debates and differing views is more transparent than hiding behind false consensus. monetary policymaking is conducted by committee, and divergent views can and often do exist. while this can be clumsy at times, such governance mechanisms have great strength in preventing institutions from

cases, internationally. this occurs through meetings with our boards of directors and advisory councils, conversations with local and international business leaders, as well as briefings on economic conditions by our research staffs. all this helps contribute to a rich and comprehensive mosaic of the national economy. in this way, we are able to make the best informed decisions possible to achieve the goals of monetary policy that congress has set for us in the federal reserve act. specifically, congress mandates that the fed should conduct policy to “ promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long - term interest rates ”. since moderate long - term interest rates generally result when prices are stable, it is often said that congress has given the fed a dual mandate. i believe the diversity of opinion around the fomc table is one of its great strengths and serves to improve the quality of our decision - making. as the famous american journalist walter lippmann once said, “ where all men think alike, no one thinks very much ”. but that bis central bankers ’ speeches diversity of views also requires me to note that i speak for myself and not the federal reserve board or my colleagues on the federal open market committee. economic outlook now let me turn to the state of our economy. we have now seen 10 quarters of real gdp growth since mid 2009, when the great recession officially ended. however, growth has not been particularly robust or smooth. to many, it occasionally feels like we take two steps forward only to take one step back. we finished 2011 with real gdp at 1. 6 percent, compared to 3. 1 percent in the prior year. there were some perfectly understandable reasons for the weakness last year, given the unexpected shocks we experienced early in the year. yet, the economy persevered. we saw growth accelerate across each of the four quarters, from less than half of a percent in the first quarter to 3 percent in the fourth quarter. i anticipate that we will continue to see moderate growth of around 3 percent in 2012 and 2013. that outlook puts me in a slightly more optimistic camp than some forecasters. for instance, the philadelphia fed ’ s first - quarter survey of professional forecasters reported average estimates of real gdp growing 2. 3 percent in 2012 and 2. 7 percent in 2013. business spending, especially investment in equipment and software, remained relatively healthy last year, buoyed by solid growth in corporate earnings. results from the philadelphia fed ’ s monthly business outlook survey of manufacturers