. increased investment in infrastructure will have a positive impact on all other segments of construction, as well as on the rest of the economy – above all the growth of industry, trade, transport, tourism and catering, as well as sectors such as finance and real estate. new investment projects will also boost productivity, production capacities, as well as the production and export of higher value - added goods and the reduction of the import component of exports. 3. third, we expect the share of fixed investment in gdp to go up on these grounds and to soon exceed 25 %, staying above that level in the medium term. for the sake of reminder, total fixed investment in 2021 amounted to eur 12 bn, which is much higher than in the period 2009 – 2012 when it averaged around eur 6 bn a year or around 18. 5 % of the then, significantly lower gdp. 4. fourth, we expect export of goods and services to continue growing at double - digit rates in the medium run. what will continue to work in favour of the country ’ s external position is the expansion of export capacities of the domestic economy, as well as the anticipated global economic recovery which we believe will go on despite the current unfavourable geopolitical situation that will hopefully be settled in a compromise soon. as a result, export of goods and services is likely to exceed 60 % of gdp by 2026. 5. fifth, we estimate that overall, savings and investments will continue to grow to the same degree in the next three years as well, which will keep the country ’ s external position within sustainable bounds in the medium term even in volatile global conditions. 5 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches 6. sixth, the preserved labour market in the pandemic conditions and a further rise in employment and wages represent the most significant source of personal consumption growth, which will, in our estimates, remain on a sound footing, contributing to economic growth, while not generating any major inflationary pressures. economic growth is accompanied by an increase in production capacities, which means that there is no overheating of the economy, nor is this expected over the projection horizon. 7. finally, owing to all the results achieved, we are a half a step away from investment grade rating. going forward, we expect serbia to officially join the group of investment grade - rated countries, which is a process that not even the pandemic halted, but only temporarily postponed. this is not a wish list, but rather a result

sources of funding for new investments. and that nothing is maintained on its own is confirmed also by the situation with sberbank in serbia and sberbank group. while others hesitated and allowed uncertainty over the fate of the banking group to fuel fears over the safety of savings deposits, the nbs was among the first in the region to respond, demonstrating preparedness and responsibility, with one goal only – to maintain confidence in the banking system, to preserve financial stability and to protect the interest of households, businesses and owners. we implemented all the necessary and legally prescribed activities in the shortest possible timeframe, after which sberbank srbija became a part of a strong local banking group. as of 1 march, aik banka is the owner of sberbank in serbia. thus, a stable and sound bank, with balance sheet assets worth eur 1. 5 bn, with 180 thousand clients and a 4 % market share, continued to operate successfully. what happens with sberbank group in the region is no longer relevant for our market. we will always act without delay in order to protect the interest of our citizens. ( slide 6 ) the third topic i will speak about today are inflation factors and the objectivity in interpreting data. let me first go back to the statements of some individuals who said that low inflation in serbia from 2013 onwards is exclusively the result of low inflation abroad. is this really so? if we go deeper into historical analysis of inflation movements, and this seems to be only appropriate path to take, we arrive at indisputable facts : from 2008 to 2012 average inflation in serbia was 9 % and in the euro area 2. 1 %. in addition to high inflation, households, corporates and government faced unfavourable financing conditions – they borrowed at high interest rates, while dinar instalments of their fx - indexed loans increased also on account of depreciation of the dinar. and then from end - 2013 we lowered inflation to around 2 %, after which it averaged 2. 2 % in serbia, while measuring 1 % in the euro area. ( slide 7 ) in addition to incontestable statistical data, we analysed the extent to which global and domestic factors determined inflation dynamics in serbia over the past 15 years, as well as which factors prevailed in different periods. the results of the analysis point to the obvious conclusion that until end - 2012 inflation in serbia was considerably higher and more volatile than in most other countries covered