ravi menon : economic dynamism amidst demographic change transcript of remarks by mr ravi menon, managing director of the monetary authority of singapore, at the ips singapore perspectives 2018, singapore, 22 january 2018. * * * ladies and gentlemen, good morning. i want to first thank ips for the opportunity to share my thoughts with this large audience. i would also like to commend ips for convening a conference on what is an important, existential topic : the implications of demographic change. i will focus my presentation on the economic implications of demographic change : what it means for economic growth and economic dynamism. the two are different. my presentation will centre around two broad themes. first, i will describe our demographic trilemma – the constraints and the choices we need to make. second, i would like to argue that demographics is not destiny – why economic dynamism is not a numbers game and how we can remain dynamic amidst this demographic challenge. 1 / 17 bis central bankers'speeches let ’ s start with the total fertility rate, or tfr. by the way, we must be one of the few countries in the world where most people know what tfr stands for! it is indeed an existential issue for us. the tfr is the starting point of all demographic analysis. singapore has had a sustained decline in its tfr. our tfr fell from around 1. 8 in the 1980s ( which is already below the replacement level of 2. 1 ) to about 1. 3 in the early 2000s. this has weighed heavily on resident population growth as seen from the relatively close correlation with the tfr. there appears to be three distinct phases in the last 30 years : in the 1990s, both the tfr and resident population growth declined in tandem. in the 2000s, the tfr continued to decline but resident population growth recovered. this reflected net positive immigration as the number of new citizens and permanent residents grew. in this decade, the tfr appears to have stabilised at around 1. 2 – 1. 3 while resident population growth fell sharply reflecting the tightening of immigration flows. 2 / 17 bis central bankers'speeches the next two slides are a thought experiment. they are not a forecast or prediction but aim to illustrate the implications of having very low resident population growth. first, let us assume that we have zero net immigration starting from this year. the resident working - age population – this is defined as citizens and permanent residents between the ages of 15

internationalisation of the rupee : is it time to shift gears? 1 good evening. it gives me great pleasure to be part of the annual day event of the foreign exchange dealers association of india ( fedai ). since its inception in 1958, fedai has played a crucial role in the smooth conduct of foreign exchange business and development of forex markets. this role assumes greater significance in today ’ s age of rapidly evolving forex markets and innovations in financial products and instruments. 2. the global situation continues to experience uncertainty on multiple fronts, be it economics, geopolitics, or climate related. coming close on the heels of the covid - 19 pandemic, these challenges have caused the plates of both policymakers and market participants alike to be full. i would, therefore, like to take this opportunity amidst this august gathering to share some thoughts on the progress of the indian rupee ( inr ) on the path of greater acceptance in international markets, or “ internationalisation ”, its benefits and risks and conclude by offering a few suggestions which might aid the rupee ’ s onward journey. before proceeding, it might be a good idea, however, to do a quick recap of the journey of rupee markets thus far which will set the backdrop for our main theme of rupee internationalisation. 3. the early stages of foreign exchange management in the country emphasized on control of foreign exchange by regulating demand due to its limited availability. various controls were imposed on forex transactions through the foreign exchange regulation act ( fera ) of 1947, which was subsequently replaced by a more comprehensive and rigorous framework through fera, 1973. the approach to external sector management underwent a paradigm shift in the 1990s driven by the economic reforms keynote address delivered by shri t rabi sankar, deputy governor, reserve bank of india at the annual day event of the foreign exchange dealers association of india ( fedai ) on october 20, 2022 at mumbai. introduced in 1991. in line with the recommendations of the high - level committee on balance of payments ( chairman : dr c rangarajan, 1993 ), exchange rate of rupee was made market determined in 1993. in 1994, india accepted article viii of the articles of agreement of the international monetary fund ( imf ) making inr fully convertible on the current account. with enactment of the foreign exchange management act ( fema ) in 1999 to replace fera, the approach shifted from that of conservation to the management of foreign exchange through fa