which is higher than the past average. these developments are attributable to the acceleration in vaccinations. 1 in the united states in particular, the economic recovery has gained momentum, with economic activity resuming and on the back of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies. this has in turn contributed to pushing up the global economy through trade activity. having said that, there are various risk factors with respect to the outlook for the global economy, such as the course of covid - 19 and international commodity prices. thus, accompanying downside risks continue to warrant attention for the time being. next, i would like to turn to japan ’ s economy, starting with recent economic developments. chart 3 shows the trend in economic conditions in terms of three indicators released by the cabinet office : the coincident index, the leading index, and the economy watchers survey's diffusion index ( di ) for current economic conditions. the coincident index, which shows the magnitude and tempo of current economic developments, started to decline moderately in 2018. the decline accelerated in a phased manner due to the consumption tax hike in october 2019 as well as the global spread of covid - 19 and the resultant implementation of public health 1 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches measures in 2020. the coincident index has been rising from the bottom hit in may 2020 ; however, the pace seems to have been somewhat slow since the middle of 2020. this trend holds true for the leading index, which shows the magnitude and tempo of future economic developments. in the economy watchers survey, the di for current economic conditions below 50 indicates that the proportion of respondents who answered that economic conditions are bad or slightly bad exceeds the proportion of those who answered that they are good or slightly good. although the di has been improving after declining to 10. 6 in april 2020, the pace of improvement has been slow. it has only just reached the level seen from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, when its decline accelerated due to the impact of the consumption tax hike. therefore, it can be said that economic activity is picking up but at an insufficient pace. next, i will touch on japan ’ s economic developments by looking at real gdp growth rates. in the left panel of chart 4, the line graph shows developments in the real gdp growth rate and the bar graph shows the contribution of demand components to the growth rate, such as private consumption and business fixed investment. the first preliminary estimate for the april - june quarter of 2021 marked a

, 000 – with two stipulations : first at least a quarter of the branches should be located in unbanked villages with a maximum population of 10, 000 ; and second, their performance in financial penetration will be a criterion for giving banks branch licences in metro and large urban centres. 52. by far our most high profile development campaign of the reserve bank in recent years has been our aggressive pursuit of financial inclusion. why is financial inclusion important? it is important because it is a necessary condition for sustaining equitable growth. there are few, if any, instances of an economy transiting from an agrarian system to a postindustrial modern society without broad - based financial inclusion. as people having comfortable access to financial services, we all know from personal experience that economic opportunity is strongly intertwined with financial access. such access is especially powerful for the poor as it provides them opportunities to build savings, make investments and avail credit. importantly, access to financial services also helps the poor insure themselves against income shocks and equips them to meet emergencies such as illness, death in the family or loss of employment. needless to add, financial inclusion protects the poor from the clutches of the usurious money lenders. 53. the extent of financial exclusion is staggering. out of the 600, 000 habitations in india, less than 100, 000 have a commercial bank branch. just about 40 per cent of the bis central bankers ’ speeches population across the country have bank accounts, and this ratio is much lower in the northeast of the country. 54. these statistics, distressing as they are, do not convey the true extent of financial exclusion. even where bank accounts are claimed to have been opened, verification has often shown that the accounts are dormant. few conduct any banking transactions and even fewer receive any credit. millions of households across the country are thereby denied the opportunity to harness their earning capacity and entrepreneurial talent, and are condemned to marginalization and poverty. 55. over the last few years, the reserve bank has launched several initiatives to deepen financial inclusion. our goal is not just that poor households must have a bank account, but that the account must be effectively used by them for savings, remittances and credit. 56. even as much of the development mandate of the reserve bank is driven by moral suasion, we have not shied away, where necessary, from using our regulatory authority to drive development objectives. even though purists might question this