( chart 2 ). the largest falls have been in the accommodation and dining sectors ( over 90 % ). but sectors such as arts and recreation, construction and education have fallen by more than 40 %. utilities, food production and real estate have been among the least affected. generally speaking, the greater a sector ’ s reliance on personal contact, the larger its fall. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches chart 2 : falls in output by sector industry output, hit to level, % accomm. & food other service arts & recreation construction education transp. & storage admin. & support distribution manufacturing extraction health professional, etc info. & comms electricity agriculture water financial real estate public admin. & def. - 20 - 40 - 60 - 80 - 100 sources : ons and bank calculations. note : data to april 2020. this sharp contraction in economic activity has been accompanied, unsurprisingly, by a sharp fall in working hours. globally, it is estimated that hours worked in q2 were almost 11 % lower than prior to the crisis, equivalent to over 300 million full - time workers. 5 the imf forecast that the advanced economy unemployment rate will double this year to over 8 %. and the ilo estimate that the crisis could increase unemployment globally by anywhere between 5. 3 and 24. 7 million people. 6 in the uk, employment data to april from the labour force survey ( lfs ) does not point to a sharp contraction so far. but other, more timely, labour market indicators suggest a sharp fall in employment. claims for universal credit have risen by 2½ million since mid - march and administrative data from hmrc point to a large rise in joblessness. claimant count measures of unemployment have risen by around 1½ million since the start of the year. in addition, over 9 million jobs are estimated to have been furloughed as part of the government ’ s job retention scheme. 7 a further more than 2. 5 million self - employed workers are claiming income support. and perhaps as many as 8 million employees are working fewer hours for a variety of reasons. 8 taken together, this means that perhaps as much as half the uk workforce is currently either unemployed or underemployed. this, too, has no historical precedent. ilo ( 2020a ). ilo ( 2020b ). the total number of jobs furloughed may not equa

subject to a number of risks. considering that in june domestic demand – and output – already was showing faster than foreseen velocity, we cannot rule out gaps closing faster than assumed in the baseline scenario. nor can we rule out that some part of that strength responded to merely temporary factors, such as the earthquake, and output will slow down before we think. in the global context, several risks are still latent. u. s. growth may weaken more than foreseen, with effects on financial markets – in particular stock index reversals – and new postponements of the monetary stimulus withdrawal. the fiscal accounts in developed economies – especially in some countries in europe – is still cause for concern, mainly because of their effects on perceived risks and in the final recovery of the world economy. furthermore, measures adopted in china to limit credit growth and prevent an overheating may result in a weaker world economy and lower commodity prices. as usual, the persistence of global imbalances entails risks both on capital flows across economic areas and on the behavior of parities between different currencies. in the recent past, the trajectory of international food prices has reopened the concern on its future performance and its impact on inflation, given the high degree of pass - through we observed in chile from world price hikes in 2007 and the first half of 2008. overall, it is not that clear that, if wheat prices continue to rise internationally, the local economy will replicate them, because domestic margins have remained fairly large. if any of these scenarios materializes, there will be direct consequences for the growth and inflation scenario foreseen by the board. after considering all the elements described, the board believes that the balance of risks for inflation and output is unbiased, and we reiterate that we will continue to use our policies with flexibility so that projected inflation stands at 3 % in the policy horizon. concluding remarks let me finish with some short reflections. after several years of heavy turbulences and natural disasters, the chilean economy is on a very good standing to continue on a path of sustained growth. price stability has been preserved, preventing inflation from affecting the purchasing power of citizens, especially those with less income and thus less capability to protect themselves against this menace. growth has consolidated, pushing the rate of job creation to levels we had not seen in years. the contribution of monetary policy to this good performance is unquestionable. it has been flexible enough to be able to be applied when facing sharp