the sugar protocol and the special preferential sugar ( sps ) agreement. effective from july 2006, the eu preferential price has gradually eroded – altogether, the industry will experience a 36 percent price cut, with the final price reduction coming into effect next year. the local sugar industry therefore needs to implement relevant reforms so as to quickly adapt to the world market. • mineral water exports : earnings from mineral water have grown exponentially over the last decade. receipts are expected to be around $ 136 million this year. cumulative to july, mineral water earnings rose by 15 percent, compared to the same period last year. • fish exports : fish exports have faired quite well in the last couple of years. earnings are expected to exceed $ 110 million this year and grow steadily in the next 2 years. cumulative to july, fish exports rose by around 19 percent over the same period last year. • timber exports : timber earnings ( includes mahogany ) have been performing well, with earnings expected to improve steadily in 2009 and 2010. for the first time this year, receipts are expected to be over $ 50 million. positive developments in the mahogany industry are anticipated to boost revenue into the future. cumulative to july, earnings rose by 25 percent compared to the same period in 2007. • gold exports : in line with production gains, gold earnings are expected to rebound to $ 36 million this year. next year, receipts are anticipated to soar to slightly over $ 100 million, a historical first. the recovery of this sector coincides well with the high prevailing gold prices, currently around us $ 828 per ounce ( september average ). • imports : in line with the economic contraction, imports fell last year. however, imports have since picked up and are expected to grow by 15 percent this year to around $ 3. 2 billion. cumulative to july, imports expanded by 23 percent. the increase in imports was underpinned by higher payments for intermediate goods ( 12 % ), consumption goods ( 9 % ), and investment goods ( 3 % ). • food, beverages and tobacco imports : cumulative to july, imports of food, beverages and tobacco expanded by 37 percent over the year for the comparable period. strong annual growth is forecast for the year, with a gradual pick up projected for the next 2 years. the increase in global food prices underpins a substantial part of the current strong growth. • mineral fuel imports : domestic imports of mineral fuel ( excluding re - exports ) have risen considerably since 2000. last year

sada reddy : fiji ’ s economy presentation by mr sada reddy, deputy governor of the reserve bank of fiji, to the fiji nz business council, suva, 3 october 2008. * * * outline the outline of my presentation is as follows : • global economic conditions • domestic economic conditions • summary global economic conditions global growth is slowing. in its july 2008 forecast, imf expected global growth to slow to 4. 1 percent in 2008 and to soften further to 3. 9 percent in 2009. however, in light of the severe global financial crisis, which unfolded in the last few weeks, there is a high likelihood that global growth may further decline. we therefore expect our major trading partners and visitor source markets to have a sluggish outlook for the next two years. emerging economies, like china and india, may experience some slowdown in growth but will continue to experience relatively high growth rates and may provide some stability to global growth. economies 2008 ( f ) 2009 ( f ) australia 4. 2 2. 6 2. 6 new zealand 3. 1 0. 5 1. 7 us 2. 0 1. 8 1. 4 euro - zone 2. 6 1. 3 0. 9 japan 2. 0 0. 9 0. 9 china 11. 9 9. 9 9. 1 india 9. 0 7. 5 7. 6 singapore 7. 7 4. 2 4. 6 south korea 5. 0 4. 4 4. 3 source : consensus forecast & asia pacific consensus forecast – sep - 08 domestic economic conditions • gdp growth : after contracting in 2007 ( - 6. 6 % ), our economy is showing some recovery in 2008 ( 1. 7 % ). forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are 1. 4 percent and 1. 9 percent, respectively. these forecasts were released by the macroeconomic policy committee in july 2008. these growth rates are too low and insufficient to generate adequate employment. however, fiji ’ s economy has been very resilient despite the global economic slowdown and massive increase in fuel and food prices. • major drivers of economic growth : the major positive contributors to the forecast medium - term growth are tourism ( transport and wholesale & retail trade and hotels & restaurants ), agriculture, manufacturing and mining sectors, which more - thanoffset the negative contributions from community, social & personal services sector. • visitor arrivals : visitor arrivals are at historical highs. a strong recovery in visitor arrivals by an annual 12 percent was seen in the first eight