40, 000 jobs in 2022. such a boost in demand and employment would greatly benefit the businesses and workers, such as yours, who have suffered the most during this crisis. chart 5 : at peak, the boost to consumption per capita would be $ 500 in 2021q4 a. total consumption b. hard - to - distance — hospitality per capita, nominal and seasonally adjusted at annual rate per capita, nominal and seasonally adjusted at annual rate dollars 3, 000 dollars 50, 000 2, 600 45, 000 2, 200 1, 800 40, 000 1, 400 35, 000 baseline — january mpr upside risk note : mpr is the monetrary policy report. sources : statistics canada and bank of canada calculations 1, 000 baseline — january mpr upside risk note : mpr is the monetrary policy report. sources : statistics canada and bank of canada calculations key downside risks while it is a useful exercise to assess the potential effects on households dipping into their accumulated savings, this positive surprise is not guaranteed. there are also important downside risks. in january, we identified a few key risks that are still relevant. - 10 in particular, in the near term, there is the risk of another wave of infections and lockdowns as more contagious variants spread, the rollout of the vaccines is delayed, or the vaccines are less effective against the variants. over the medium term, businesses may face increasing financial stress. we could see more firms close as the recovery progresses slowly and our economy restructures in response to more persistent shifts in behaviour. for example, the post - pandemic world will likely see more people working from home and shopping online. this could reduce the demand for office and retail space and related services in downtown areas. consequently, more businesses could permanently shut their doors and let employees go. there are about 850, 000 fewer jobs now than a year ago, and the ranks of the long - term unemployed are increasing. prolonged spells of unemployment could erode workers ’ skills and make it more difficult for them to find a job. 8 while new firms may be established and workers retrained, this will take time. monetary policy stimulus will be needed for an extended period to mitigate these risks and support both the restructuring and recovery of our economy. our decision so, let me now turn to how all of this fed into the bank ’ s interest rate decision yesterday. as we prepared for the decision, my colleagues

had to face amid a flood of capital. third, the exit from these measures has not been easy. while the post - crisis environment provided an opportunity to gradually normalize the reserve requirements levels ( thus supplying an additional counter - cyclical tool ), they remain high by european standards. however, despite all these obstacles, i think the resort to unconventional policy instruments had 3 major advantages. bis central bankers ’ speeches i would name first the fact that they certainly managed to limit the size of the disequilibria. i have no doubt that the outcome would have been a lot worse had we been complacent and relied entirely on the self - corrective behaviour of markets. i will give here just one example : forex interventions limited significantly exchange rate fluctuations, with the appreciation during the massive capital inflows and the depreciation after the crisis outbreak not exceeding 25 percent. in the absence of such interventions, the magnitude of fluctuations could have been as high as 40 to 60 percent. the foreign exchange purchases made before the crisis not only limited the unsustainable leu appreciation and the associated loss of export competitiveness, but supplied the ammunition for subsequent interventions to cushion the currency depreciation once the outbreak of the crisis changed the direction of the flows. and i believe this is the second benefit of the approach. last, but not least, thinking outside the box allowed us to avoid incurring losses after 2006. while profitability should not be a concern for a central bank, this development proved very fortunate from the perspective of the political economy. on the one hand, it allowed the nbr to preserve its independence in relation to the government by not generating quasi - fiscal deficits in a period with an increasing fiscal imbalance. on the other hand, it helped preserve institutional credibility in relation to the banks subject to nbr supervision, which were closely monitored in terms of capital adequacy. moreover, through our actions we wanted to avoid rewarding the speculative behaviour several commercial banks were engaged in ( i. e. carry trade ) and instead incentivize them to focus on their core activities. bis central bankers ’ speeches