optimist about the us economy in the medium term, people are still a bit nervous about the path from here to that medium term. and, unfortunately, the global economy continues to be more dependent on us - led growth than is ideal, due to the chronic weakness of japan and the apparent lack of dynamism in europe. one issue which i think could well come more sharply into focus this year is the value of the us dollar, which has come down in trade - weighted terms by about 12 per cent since the peak. the fall against the euro has been particularly noticeable – of the order of 25 per cent. against the yen the fall has been much smaller. substantial changes in exchange rates rarely occur without some controversy, because they always create winners and losers – so they can be uncomfortable for some. all countries concerned will have an interest in how exchange rate movements, especially among the big currencies, affect their economies, and i suspect we may see a good deal of discussion about this in the year ahead. then there is, of course, the mooted military campaign to disarm the iraqi regime. right now, this is probably the number one identifiable source of uncertainty cited by international decision - makers. historically, wars have usually been expansionary and inflationary for the combatants. but i suppose at present the uncertainty may be less about the conflict itself and more about the nature of the world which might follow it, so that previous experience, including the gulf war of 1991, may not provide a useful guide as to what to expect. the world must have been an extremely uncertain place after world war ii, or in the early 1950s with the korean war and the apparent threat of confrontation at times between the nuclear powers during the cold war. yet this environment of geo - political tensions did not ultimately prevent the 1950s and 1960s from being a period in which prosperity increased fairly steadily in the western industrial economies. so perhaps we should take care not to overstate these uncertainties. underlying economic forces are still important. i venture to suggest that the continued rapid expansion of the chinese economy will probably have a more profound impact on the world economy in the next ten years than a conflict with iraq. the australian economy the above makes clear, i trust, that the international environment facing australia has been far from favourable over the past couple of years. yet economic growth has remained pretty strong, driven by domestic demand. this has been associated with a widening in the current account deficit, which is now receiving some attention

all over the country shall be to build up national centralized individual and enterprise credit information databases and “ provide convenient, quick and highly efficient credit information services to government departments, financial regulatory departments, financial institutions, enterprises and individuals according to law ”. meanwhile, “ all regions and departments shall actively support the building and development of financial credit information system and make full use of its credit information resources to strengthen credit building and management ”. third, supervision should be intensified to cultivate and regulate the credit information market development. the effectiveness of legislations and rules will be compromised without an effective law enforcement mechanism. therefore, the pbc will continue to strengthen the supervision over credit information market to protect legitimate rights and interests of market participants, regulate credit information service market, foster the compliance of credit reporting agencies and create a credit information environment for orderly competition and fair service. in addition, efforts will be made to actively expand the use of credit information products, cultivate market needs for credit information services, and establish an effective mechanism to encourage credit information product innovation and development so as to satisfy the diversified, specialized and multi - layered needs for credit information services. under the precondition of strict supervision, improved system and safeguarding the safety of information, the credit service market will be opened in a sequenced and appropriate way, and advanced management experience and skills of foreign countries will be introduced. fourth, public education of credit information should be enhanced. enterprise and individual are the main providers of credit information data, and constitute an important part of credit information system building. strengthening the public education of credit information, enhancing the enterprises and individuals ’ awareness of credit information system and encouraging their active participation are indispensable for the sound and sustained development of credit information system. with the efforts made in recent yeas, social awareness of credit information is basically in place, and enterprises and individuals are more aware of abiding by laws, keeping promise, respecting contract and paying debt. over the past year since the databases were launched, nearly 300 thousand people have inquired their credit reports at their own initiative. about 180 thousand enterprises who have not borrowed from the bank established their own credit files on a voluntary basis, which have enhanced their transparency and broadened their financing channels. in the future, under the guidance of the state council, the pbc will actively cooperate with relevant government departments and continue to create a benign external environment so as to promote the sound and sustained development of credit information industry. iii. the important role of credit institutions should be