the latest data, manufacturing production is 5 % up on a year ago compared with growth of just 1. 5 % in the services sector over the same period. 3 while some of this rebound in the manufacturing sector may reflect temporary factors – such as the turnaround in the global stock cycle – it also shows that british industry is able to take advantage of the recovery in the global economy with the additional support of a competitive exchange rate. the ability of british manufacturing industry to provide strong impetus to private sector growth will be an important offset to the drag to domestic demand from the rebalancing of public finances over the next few years. there is also evidence that strong growth in the global economy is benefiting parts of the services sector. earlier this week, the airport operator baa reported a 7. 6 % annual rise in traffic volumes at heathrow airport in september – driven by strong business travel growth to asia and other emerging markets. from the position a year ago – when demand had fallen sharply at home and abroad in the wake of the financial crisis – this turnaround is impressive. so my verdict on the recovery would be “ so far, so good ”. but we have to recognise that we are still at an early phase of the upswing. it is not surprising, therefore, that growth is uneven across sectors and from quarter to quarter, and that confidence is still somewhat fragile. the state of confidence is not helped by the negative tone of much of the economic commentary at present – which seems to reflect a high degree of nervousness about the data is latest available : for manufacturing it relates to the three months to august and for services to the three months to july. progress of the recovery. but this raises the obvious question : if things are so good, why do they feel so bad – to some people at least? there are three elements which appear to be underpinning these concerns about the sustainability of growth in the current economic climate : the prospects for the global economy ; the prospective impact of the government ’ s fiscal tightening ; and the legacy of the financial crisis. i will discuss these three issues in turn before coming back to the crucial issue of how the bank of england ’ s monetary policy can best support the recovery. the global economic outlook a serious setback for the global economy would have major repercussions for the growth of the uk economy. our economy has a very international focus, and exports, international business activity and the financial sector all play a part in creating strong linkages

elvira nabiullina : review of recent inflation developments in russia and economic outlook statement by ms elvira nabiullina, governor of the bank of russia, in the follow - up to the board of directors meeting, moscow, 17 december 2021. * * * good afternoon, we have made the decision to raise the key rate by 100 basis points to 8. 50 % per annum. inflation is still high. our decision is aimed at ensuring its reduction to the target by the end of next year. i would now dwell on the reasons behind our today ’ s decision. i will start out with inflation. its acceleration in october and november was caused by both transitory and steady factors. the former include delays in harvesting, soaring prices for new year ’ s holidays abroad, as well as the persistent deficit in the car market due to disruptions in component supplies, and a number of other supply - side constraints. even if we leave aside the surge in product and service prices, we have the stable component of inflation which considerably exceeds our target. this is because the growth of demand still surpasses the capacities to ramp up supply. in this context, our special focus is to ensure that the monetary policy is well - balanced. what do we mean by that? it is the stable component of inflation related to demand trends that monetary policy impacts directly. however, we should not ignore temporary factors. according to the experience of the last three months, these factors are not only accelerating overall price growth, but are also intensifying inflation expectations. hence, temporary factors are becoming steady. when inflation expectations remain high, we need more time and a more significant tightening of monetary policy to be able to return inflation to the target. if we delay this, both inflation and inflation expectations will continue to go up. of course, a very tight policy aggressively responding to transitory factors could bring inflation back to 4 % more quickly. however, this would entail a slump in economic activity and a subsequent considerable deviation of inflation downwards from the target. the objective of a well - balanced monetary policy is to ensure price stability and limit sharp fluctuations in inflation, whether upwards or downwards. our baseline forecast assumes that inflation will decrease to 4 – 4. 5 % by the end of 2022. it takes into account both a reduction in the steady component of inflation and the reverse — disinflationary — influence of a part of temporary factors. in other words, we assume that prices for certain products and services