jean - claude trichet : the changing role of communication introductory remarks by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank, at a dinner with members of the “ internationaler club frankfurter wirtschaftsjournalisten ”, frankfurt am main, 15 december 2008. * * * ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome to all of you and thank you very much for your invitation to this club evening. i am happy to see many familiar faces in the audience tonight. communication is a very important issue for all times. being here in frankfurt i am thinking of the very profound remark by goethe : “ niemand wurde in gesellschaften viel sprechen, wenn er sich bewuβt ware, wie oft er die anderen missversteht “. nevertheless let me be bold enough to share with you some thoughts on communication and central banks. communication is a key element for central banks to enhance the effectiveness, predictability and credibility of their monetary policy decisions. it becomes even more important in difficult times, when the economic outlook darkens and confidence weakens. it seems to me that central banks have improved their communication significantly in good times – and also in bad times – while some years ago communication was almost seen as a breach of their professional code. why this change? why did central banks decide to become transparent? prior to the 1990s, central banks were very much working on the assumption that monetary policy effectiveness is greatest when the central bank systematically surprises the markets. the old belief was based on the notion that a central bank would measure the success of its actions by the extent to which economic activity could be raised and maintained above potential. if rational individuals already expect a certain change, they adjust their behaviour to that expectation. and that means that a monetary policy change would have no effect. in the past fifteen years, however, two important developments changed the theory and practice of central banking. first, the assumption that successful monetary policy acts by surprises and is made by a sequence of isolated steps has been the subject of thorough theoretical scrutiny and is now close to oblivion. it became clear that policy - making by surprises and isolated steps will bear no lasting effect on the economy once the public recognises the intentions that motivate the monetary authority. a monetary policy strategy made of isolated actions with the intention of boosting output above potential is bound to lose effectiveness because the short - term inflationary impact of that policy soon becomes embedded in price and

bandid nijathaworn : global markets outlook opening speech by mr bandid nijathaworn, deputy governor of the bank of thailand, at the global markets outlook conference series 2007, organised by deutsche bank, bangkok, 8 january 2007. * * * thank you very much and good morning, first, let me thank deutsche bank for inviting me to give the opening remark this morning. last year, i was also honoured with the same opportunity, so i am very pleased to be back doing this again this year, addressing this important conference. a lot of things have happened to both the global markets and to thailand since the time we met last year. and compared to last year, to be speaking on the economy and the markets this year, i think, is much more challenging. at this time, although the mood in the markets is positive, i think considerable uncertainty still looms in the global economy to the extent that even the best of our analysts still do not seem to be coming to a common view on the key issues. for example, the pace of global slowdown and how much further would the us dollar need to adjust. but, this is, in essence, the nature of markets, and a variety of views will provide the markets with the needed latitude and balance for its continued growth and stability. so, i very much look forward to today's conference, and to the presentation on some of these issues, as well as on this year's outlook. as for my part this morning, given the limitations of time, i want to share with you my thoughts on a few issues that i think will be important for the global economy and for thailand this year. these are my own views on the global outlook and the implications for thailand. first, the global economy. conventional market view at this time is for the global economy to slow somewhat from last year, growing at about 4. 9 percent compared to a growth of 5. 1 percent last year. so, as the numbers suggest, the current view is for a moderate slowdown, reflecting for the most part a slower pace of expansion in the us. this is essentially a soft - landing scenario in the sense that the us will experience only a moderation in growth without major adverse impact on asset prices. from thailand's point of view, the slowing of global growth will have important implications for our export sector. exports, particularly last year, have been the key driver of thailand's performance. therefore, for