further financial integration. interchange fees let me conclude by touching on interchange fees, the topic of today ’ s workshop. the fees have turned out to be a rather controversial issue, not only in europe but also worldwide. the eurosystem ’ s position is neutral on interchange fees. but clarity is needed so that banks and other payment service providers can decide on future investments. that clarity has now been provided in the commission ’ s proposal for an interchange fee regulation, which we very much welcome. even with a cap on interchange fees, banks should seize the opportunities that a “ sepa for cards ” offers. the growth potential for cards at the point of sale is still substantial in europe, especially in some countries. the favourable outlook for card transactions is a business case in itself, even for a scheme that operates with a low interchange fee. building the european union is a slow and laborious but ultimately rewarding process. the migration to sepa credit transfer and direct debit marks the completion of another element in that construction, and there are more to come. i am sure that today ’ s workshop will give us new insights and help pave the way for further design and construction work, which is of such value to the people of this continent. finally, a word of thanks to the colleagues of the banca d ’ italia for their warm welcome and hospitality. and, of course, thank you all for attending this workshop today. unfortunately, i soon have to leave for frankfurt, so let me wish you “ buon appetito ” and a fruitful afternoon session. see http : / / www. ecb. europa. eu / pub / pdf / other / virtualcurrencyschemes201210en. pdf. bis central bankers ’ speeches

the likelihood of a recession has thus risen considerably. what is your expectation for economic growth? our latest projections put euro area growth at 0. 8 % for this year. but that is now out of date. we will certainly have to adjust our projection significantly downwards. below 0 %? we don ’ t know yet. the greatest uncertainty is how long the crisis will last. originally, many economists thought that there would be a short, sharp crisis and that things would subsequently pick up again quickly. it very much depends on how quickly the spread of the virus can be contained, but also on the economic policy reaction. you have done intensive research on financial crises of the past. is there any crisis that was similar? the current situation cannot be compared with the 2008 financial crisis. that crisis originated in the financial system. today we are looking at a shock to the real economy that is affecting many countries at the same time and for that reason is so devastating for the global economy. if we want to draw a comparison, we should look at other pandemics. the spanish flu? yes, for example – that pandemic was indeed devastating. the precise figures are not known, but between 20 and 100 million people died back then. now we are in a much better situation. first, medicine is much more advanced. during the spanish flu pandemic, many people died from secondary bacterial infections which can now be treated more effectively. and we are economically in a much better position to deal with a shock of this nature. why? the internet puts a whole range of technical options at our disposal that allow us to continue working. our social security systems are much better. people will only stay at home if they continue to be paid when they get sick. at the same time, there is now more international division of labour than there was back then, so we feel the impact more strongly if supply chains break down. the economy is estimated to have contracted by 6 % at the time of the spanish flu. is this 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches virus crisis economically less bad? no - one can say, but we will play our part in containing the economic consequences of this crisis. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches