words, it is a response by the bsp to various issues that hamper the potential for growth of msmes. given the multiplicity of challenges, a collective and collaborative approach is the most ideal strategy to promote inclusive growth. closer coordination of various players will ensure that complementarities and synergies are identified among and across efforts and unnecessary duplications minimized. on a broader scale, this coordinated approach is also the value proposition of the national strategy for financial inclusion ( nsfi ), the platform for public and private sector coordination to ensure synergy of efforts for a systematic approach to countrywide development through financial inclusion. this is exactly the type of coordination that has made the cma a success. for 14 years now, we — the bsp, citibank, citi foundation and microfinance council of the philippines, inc. ( mcpi ), together with the members of the national selection committee and the country teams, and other microfinance advocates – have worked together to constantly improve the design and implementation of the program. thank you everyone! and most of all, we thank and congratulate our cma winners and finalists, as well as the other microentrepreneurs across the country for your steadfast and dedicated efforts that make lives better not only for your families but also for your communities. maraming salamat sa inyong lahat! mabuhay ang cma winners natin! mabuhay ang filipino microentrepreneurs! mabuhay po tayong lahat! 1 national winner honie navor ( granite and tiles ), luzon winner richiel vargas ( gloves, bonnets, and armbands ), visayas winner angelita dagoc ( guitars ), mindanao winner marcelina occena ( herbal oils ). others are special awards for agri ( organic fertilizer ), community leadership ( pastries and candies ), green / sustainable business 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches ( recycled rubber tires ), and youth ( tablea and coffee ). 2 a value chain is defined as a set of actors, suppliers, processors, and aggregators who conduct linked sequence of value - adding activities involved in bringing a product from its raw material stage to the consumers. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

point that final domestic demand remains flat and the rebalancing process in the economy is going on as envisaged. owing to the monetary tightening, the growth rate of final domestic demand is expected to remain moderate in the forthcoming period, as suggested by the recent loan and orders data ( chart 13 ). accordingly, our inflation forecasts are based on the assumption that domestic demand will decelerate further during early 2012. chart 13. chart 14. growth rates of business and consumer loans 3 - month ahead expectations for orders ( 13 - week average, adjusted for exchange rate effect, annual percent change ) ( up - down, seasonally adjusted, percent ) source : cbrt. source : cbrt. as i mentioned at the beginning, global growth forecasts have been revised significantly downwards since the publication of the october inflation report mainly owing to the euro area. thus, projections for export - weighted global growth index for turkey also pointed to a lower pace of growth for external demand ( chart 15 ). hence, we based our inflation forecasts on an outlook of weaker external demand compared to the previous period. bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 15. export - weighted global economic activity index * ( 2009q1 = 100 ) * for methodology, see inflation report box 2. 1 “ foreign demand index for turkey ”. 2010 – ii, source : cbrt, bloomberg, consensus forecasts 2011 october and 2012 january bulletins. in sum, we revised our output gap forecasts upwards for the second half of 2011 considering the stronger - than - expected economic activity in the third quarter. meanwhile, due to the deterioration in the global growth outlook, we estimate that aggregate demand conditions will provide a stronger support to disinflation in the medium term compared to the previous reporting period. we also revised our assumptions for commodity and oil prices slightly upwards. considering the recent developments and futures prices, we revised our assumptions for oil prices upwards from usd 100 to usd 110 per barrel for 2012 and to usd 105 for 2013. accordingly, our assumptions for import prices were also subject to a slight upward revision ( chart 16 ). in addition, we preserved our assumptions for the annual rate of increase in food prices at 7. 5 percent throughout the forecast horizon. chart 16. revisions in the assumptions for oil and imports prices oil prices ( usd / barrel ) source : bloomberg, cbrt. import prices ( 2003 = 100 ) source : cbrt, turkstat. bis central bankers ’ speeches 3. inflation and monetary policy