age and experience of the workforce has grown ; more people have gone into higher education and higher - paid occupations. but on top of that underlying trend, we ’ ve seen sharp movements, in both directions, during the recent cycle. both the drop in job creation during the great recession, and the corresponding pick - up during the recovery, were skewed towards the less skilled, less well paid end of the jobs market. chart 8, which plots the differences in job creation across three classes of occupational characteristics, depicts one aspect of that pattern5. you can see similar differences in rates of job creation between young and old, less and more educated. and as i outlined in the introduction, the effect of these swings was to add materially to the growth of average earnings during the downturn and to subtract from it in 2013 and 2014. unskilled employment generally more cyclical before asking why this has happened let me make a few points about the estimates. first, there are some approximations involved. one involves the mix of surveys : we ’ re estimating the impact of compositional changes on lfs pay data and assuming the effect simply carries over to the awe. that ’ s the most reasonable assumption, but it ’ s an assumption nonetheless. also, because of the way we ’ ve done this regression – for the sake of simplicity it ’ s been estimated in one go, using the entire 20 - year sample – we ’ re implicitly as i said, there are potentially hundreds of detailed occupational descriptions from which lfs respondents can choose. the ons ’ s standard scheme then makes high - level classifications – “ high skill ” occupations, for example, whose job creation rates are plotted in blue in chart 7, are defined as “ managers, directors, professional, associate professional and technical ” ; “ low skill ” refers to sales and “ customer services, process and plant operatives, elementary ”. bis central bankers ’ speeches assuming that changes in each of the characteristics have constant effects over time6. but there ’ s a substantial economic literature explicitly devoted to explaining changes in some of these coefficients, notably the labour - market returns to better qualifications ( the “ skill premium ” ). i ’ ll come back to this point later. second, the estimated compositional effects have been driven mainly by changes in the mix of people, and their individual characteristics, not by shifts in employment across sectors. pay clearly differs across industries, even controlling for those characteristics. and on occasion sectoral shifts

, either organically, or through the isda protocol. the message remains clear : those who can transition away from libor should do so on terms that they themselves agree with their counterparties. conclusion libor transition is challenging. it has been embedded in the financial system for a number of decades across a broad range of products. but we are moving away from libor and the problems of libor. this means facing up to transition now, taking action to ensure new issuance moves to robust alternative rates and concrete plans are in place to deal with https : / / www. parliament. uk / business / publications / written - questions - answers - statements / written - statement / commons / 2020 - 0623 / hcws307 / all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches legacy exposures. the uk government announcement on its intention to legislate and the finalisation of the isda protocol are important steps in the ‘ endgame ’ becoming clearer. there is more to do and work is underway to remove the remaining barriers to transition. after john has spoken we ’ ll be joined by the chairs of the uk and us industry groups who continue to lead this work, building consensus on key areas such as product conventions and cash fallback mechanisms. hopefully, the message is now clear to those who have remained on the side - line : this is a necessity not a choice and there are eighteen months left to transition. and, for the avoidance of doubt, i ’ m taking it that eighteen months in libor is past the middle of the seventh, so you don ’ t need to get up now, stretch and sing ‘ take me out to the ball game ’ before john speaks. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches