wait considerably longer before raising short - term rates. the fact that inflation is coming in well below the fomc ’ s 2 percent objective is relevant here. most fomc participants currently do not expect short - term rates to begin to rise until 2015. to reiterate what i said last week, some commentators have interpreted the recent shift in the market - implied path of short - term interest rates as indicating that market participants now expect the first increases in the federal funds rate target to come much earlier than previously thought. setting aside whether this is the correct interpretation of recent price moves, let me emphasize that such an expectation would be quite out of sync with both fomc statements and the expectations of most fomc participants. regional economic conditions turning to the regional economy, my colleagues and i at the new york fed continually track conditions in our district, and we have a number of tools we use for that purpose. to promote growth in our local communities, we publish extensive data and analysis on the local economy. we provide outreach initiatives, such as our workshops on access to global markets to help small businesses learn about loan programs and sources of credit enhancements. we also run an annual video festival for college students in the second district. in this program student teams produce videos aimed to help young adults make bis central bankers ’ speeches sound personal financial decisions. a panel of advertising and video professionals selects winning video productions for screening in local movie theaters. as you know, even states as wealthy as connecticut have large pockets of poverty. so, we target some of our work specifically to low - and moderate - income groups. we have worked hard to help neighborhoods that face high foreclosure rates. this work is important obviously because foreclosures are a terrible event for those who lose their homes. but beyond that, this work is important because high levels of foreclosures affect neighbors ’ home values, the local tax base and economic vitality more broadly. we have provided housing counselors and community groups with the latest information on mortgage conditions via mortgage briefs, roundtables, presentations and an interactive web tool that shows very local monthly delinquency and foreclosure conditions. this past fall we hosted a conference on distressed residential real estate to share new expert analysis with senior policymakers and practitioners from across the nation. your new commissioner of housing – whom i note, formerly worked at the new york fed – attended that conference. we also conduct a periodic poll about the credit needs of

“ a land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold : do emigrants have over - optimistic expectations about incomes abroad? ” journal of development economics 102 : 116 – 27. potter, simon. 2011. “ improving survey measures of inflation expectations. ” march 30, 2011, speech at the forecasters club of new york. bis central bankers ’ speeches potter, simon. 2012. “ improving the measurement of inflation expectations. ” june 7, 2012, speech at the barclays 16th global inflation - linked conference, new york. robertson, john c., ellis w. tallman, and charles h. whiteman. 2005. “ forecasting using relative entropy. ” journal of money, credit, and banking 37, no. 3 : 383 – 401. stein, jeremy c. 2013. “ yield - oriented investors and the monetary transmission mechanism. ” proceedings of the symposium banking, liquidity, and monetary policy. svenson, ola, and goran nilsson. 1986. “ mental economics : subjective representations of factors related to expected inflation. ” journal of economic psychology 7 : 327 – 49. van der klaauw, wilbert, wandi bruine de bruin, giorgio topa, simon potter, and michael bryan. 2008. “ rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations : preliminary findings. ” federal reserve bank of new york staff reports, no. 359, december. williamson, maureen r., and alexander j. wearing. 1996. “ lay people ’ s cognitive models of the economy. ” journal of economic psychology 17, no. 1 ( february ) : 3 – 38. bis central bankers ’ speeches