weather and a port strike in los angeles. we had some unusual weather ourselves. however, our best judgement is that the data we have received so far remain consistent with the view that the impact of the oil price shock is proving to be faster than initially expected, not larger. outside of the energy sector, other areas of the economy appear to be doing well. in particular, the segments of non - energy exports that we have been expecting to lead the recovery have been doing so, and we expect this trend to be buttressed by stronger u. s. growth and the lower canadian dollar. our business outlook survey indicates that capacity constraints are beginning to emerge for exporters, which is promising for new investment. and, although we still have material slack in our labour market, the market ’ s fundamentals have begun to improve. even so, companies remain cautious about new investment and hiring intentions. weighing these various forces acting on the economy, we are anticipating a rebound in growth in the second quarter, and a move to above - trend growth thereafter, for annual growth of 1. 9 per cent this year. this projected growth profile gets us back on track to use up our excess capacity around the end of 2016, at which time inflation will settle sustainably on bis central bankers ’ speeches 2 per cent. we see the risks around this projection as roughly balanced, but they will be reassessed continuously as new data become available. the main risk is the size and duration of the negative impact of the oil shock, weighed against the positive forces that are building in the non - energy export sector. our outlook is for the positives to begin to reassert themselves during the second quarter, and to do so clearly in the second half of the year. the interest rate cut of january and the lower canadian dollar are working to speed up the transition. to give just one example, exporting companies with existing contracts denominated in u. s. dollars are seeing an immediate 8 per cent increase in canadian - dollar cash flow, and will be able to compete more aggressively for future sales. inflation as measured by total cpi today is running at about 1 per cent, well below our 2 per cent target. this is largely due to the drop in gasoline prices, a temporary effect. but total cpi inflation would be even lower than 1 per cent, in fact quite close to zero, were it not for exchange - rate effects, which are boosting total inflation by 0. 6 to 0. 7 percentage points

of 2015q4, commodities accounted for 41 per cent of our exports, roughly one - third of which were energy products. bis central bankers ’ speeches context : impact of the commodity boom on canada a broad - based boom in global commodity markets began in the early 2000s. it was fuelled by growing demand from emerging - market economies. canada was a big beneficiary of the rising prices. our terms of trade – the price of our exports relative to that of our imports – improved substantially. so did our real gross domestic income ( gdi ), which is a measure of the purchasing power of income generated in canada. the terms of trade directly boosted gdi by approximately 7 per cent between 2002 and 2013. 2 rising commodity prices also boosted economic activity, particularly business investment, which generated job growth in the natural resource sector. in 2014, business investment in the oil and gas extraction sector peaked at almost $ 80 billion. as commodity prices and canada ’ s terms of trade improved, the canadian dollar strengthened. from a low of about 62 cents u. s. in 2002, the dollar rose to average around parity between 2010 and 2013. this increase was not merely coincidental. in addition to the improvement in our terms of trade, other factors, such as international interest rate differentials and safe haven flows, were at play. all of these elements influenced the level of the canadian dollar. 3 in this environment, canada ’ s flexible exchange rate helped to prevent the economy from overheating. as the canadian dollar appreciated, it became a headwind for some industries in the non - commodity export sector. this, in turn, reinforced incentives for capital and labour to shift to commodity - producing sectors and regions. indeed, workers migrated in large numbers to regions of the country that were benefiting from job creation in the natural resource sector. the oil boom in alberta provides the strongest example. between 2002 and 2013, more than a quarter of a million people moved here from other provinces. we also saw the number of workers commuting to alberta double during this period, rising to about 8 per cent of the province ’ s workforce. assessing the magnitude of the shock i ’ m sure many of you felt the benefits of higher commodity prices. you likely witnessed changes in your neighbourhoods and city. but, by late 2014, you may have begun to feel a cold wind blowing. with the significant decline in commodity prices, the economy was faced with a material shock. let me turn to my first question