as a drag on commodity prices. the south african reserve bank estimates that the price of a basket of south african export commodities like gold, platinum and coal has declined by 20 per cent in us dollar terms over the past 12 months to september 2015. south africa ’ s economic growth has disappointed in recent years. in 2014, real gross domestic product ( or gdp ) growth registered 1, 5 per cent and the latest projections estimate that real gdp growth in 2015 will also be around 1, 5 per cent. this falls short of the estimated population growth of 1, 6 per cent, the slow growth outcomes have been registered despite expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and mainly relate to a number of structural impediments in the zoltan, j. ( ed. ) 1999. “ chapter 1 : the new american revolution ”. in are small firms important? their role and impact. new york : springer science + business media. bis central bankers ’ speeches south african economy, such as the electricity constraints ; the small pool of skilled labour and certain infrastructure bottlenecks. several sectors experienced contractions in output volumes in the second quarter of 2015. in the case of agriculture, this was the result of drought which reduced the size of the maize crop by about 30 per cent from that of the previous year. the electricity sector suffered from a lack of capacity as unplanned maintenance disrupted supply, resulting in numerous instances of load - shedding. this in turn contributed to a reduction in manufacturing and mining output, exacerbating the impact of already lustreless domestic and global demand. as could be expected in an environment of slow growth, employment creation has also been weak recently. for instance, underlying employment in the formal sectors of the economy has declined by 0, 3 per cent over the year to the second quarter of 2015, taking out the distortion arising from the election - related 130 000 temporary government employees added to the second - quarter 2014 base level of employment. employment declines have been concentrated in the goods - producing part of the economy while services employment has been more stable. overall, unemployment remains elevated at around 25 per cent of the workforce. the international price of oil have more than halved since mid - 2014 causing inflation outcomes in south africa to have been favourably affected, with the most recent reading of the consumer price inflation rate, at 4, 6 per cent, quite close to the midpoint of the 3 – 6 per cent inflation target range. however, due to base effects,

christian noyer : public and private debt – imbalances of global savings introductory speech by mr christian noyer, governor of the bank of france and chairman of the board of directors of the bank for international settlements, at session 3 “ public and private debt – imbalances of global savings ”, aix - en - provence economic forum, aix - en - provence, 6 july 2012. * * * in introduction to this session, i would like to make seven remarks. my first remark is inspired by the very title of this session. in advanced countries, the average public debt to gnp ratio is 100 %. in emerging countries, the figure is 30 %. this is a very wide gap, and it represents one of the global economy ’ s largest imbalances. and one of the least mentioned. it also represents a complete reversal of the situation compared with just over twenty years ago. at that time, i remember well, i was chairman of the paris club, and emerging countries came to ask for the rescheduling of their debt. second remark, global demand is still fairly concentrated on the advanced countries. not only is their debt higher, but their savings ( as a ratio of gnp ) are lower. the g7 countries alone still account for 56 % of global consumption. the problem is clear. how can we hope to raise our level of consumption if we need to reduce our level of debt and increase our savings? and if the advanced countries ’ consumption stops growing, what will happen to global economic growth and particularly that of emerging countries with entirely export - oriented economies? which brings me to my third remark : we need the emerging countries to continue investing their savings in advanced countries. we therefore need properly functioning international financial markets. in a world where the savings and financing needs are so geographically dislocated, properly functioning financial markets are a prerequisite for economic growth. but, today the capital markets appear very unsettled and full of anomalies, and not just in europe. • for example, certain sovereigns ( the usa and uk for example ) borrow today at historically very low nominal interest rates and at negative real interest rates despite the fact that their deficits are around 10 % of gnp and that doubts exist regarding the future evolution of their debt levels. • another anomaly : large corporations have accumulated unprecedented cash reserves ( several trillions of dollars ) despite numerous highly profitable and unexploited investment opportunities around the world, unsatisfied