cent. this was a marginally smaller see carmen m. reinhart and kenneth s. rogoff, “ this time is different : eight centuries of financial folly ”, sns, 2010. bis central bankers ’ speeches improvement than we were counting on in july ( unemployment 0. 1 of a percentage point higher ). cpi inflation was 3. 3 per cent in july. cpif inflation ( 1. 6 per cent ) and cpif inflation excluding energy ( 1. 1 per cent ) were much lower. all of these outcomes were marginally ( 0. 1 of a percentage point ) lower than expected. i said at the monetary policy meeting in july that there was still a risk that inflation would increase more than we were expecting, particularly in 2012 and 2013. this was partly because inflation had recently been held back extra hard by the strengthening of the krona. i also pointed to the risk of rising energy and commodity prices in the world market, higher wage increases than expected due to pressure in the labour market, and higher inflation and wage expectations due to the high cpi inflation. but so far, inflation has been marginally lower than expected and energy and commodity prices have fallen. the outlook for 2012 and 2013 depends, for instance, on developments in international economic activity and on the result of the coming wage bargaining rounds in the labour market. the financial markets during the summer developments in the financial markets have been dramatic over the summer. share prices, government bond yields and exchange rates have fluctuated substantially. this turbulence is one factor that could have significance for future forecasts. this is essentially due to renewed concern over sovereign debt problems in the euro area and the united states. focus has primarily been on four issues : public finances in greece, the risk of problems spreading to spain and italy, potential problems in the european banks and the management of the debt ceiling and public finances in the united states. new support package for greece at the beginning of the summer there was particular concern over developments in greece. after a series of meetings of various policy - making bodies within the eu as well as a vote of confidence and a decision on budget - strengthening measures, structural reforms and the sale of state - owned companies in the greek parliament it was decided in mid - july that greece would receive a further support package from the euro area and the imf. this led to a slight fall in the yield on greek government bonds from their extremely high levels ( see figure 11 ). spain and italy in the danger zone at the

rate with uncertainty bands per cent, quarterly average 90 % 75 % 50 % outcome forecast source : the riksbank bis central bankers ’ speeches 9. gdp in the usa usd billion, fixed prices earlier gdp revised gdp source : bureau of economic analysis 10. forward - looking indicators economic tendency indicator : index, average = 100, standard deviation = 10 purchasing managers ’ index : seasonally - adjusted index economic tendency survey purchasing managers ’ index note. the broken line represents the average 2000 – 2011. sources : national institute of economic research and swedbank bis central bankers ’ speeches 11. government bond yields 10 year maturity, per cent germany greece ireland italy spain portugal source : reuters 12. government bond yields 10 year maturity, per cent 6. 0 6. 0 5. 5 5. 5 5. 0 5. 0 4. 5 4. 5 4. 0 4. 0 3. 5 3. 5 3. 0 3. 0 2. 5 2. 5 usa 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 germany 1. 5 1. 0 sweden 1. 0 0. 5 0. 5 0. 0 0. 0 source : reuters bis central bankers ’ speeches 13. stock market developments index, 1 january 2006 = 100 sweden ( omxs ) euro area ( euro stoxx ) usa ( s & p 500 ) emerging markets ( msci ) source : reuters 14. krona exchange rate, tcw index index, 18 november 1992 = 100 note. the outcomes are daily rates and the forecasts refer to quarterly averages. data are updated with new outcomes after the publication of the july monetary policy report. source : the riksbank bis central bankers ’ speeches