fourth quarter of this year. parallel to this, the bsp, in partnership with the world wildlife fund ( w w f ) philippines, the world bank, and industry associations will conduct vulnerability assessments and stress testing exercises with volunteer banks. the bsp will leverage on the results of said exercise in the issuance of supplemental stress testing guidelines, and enhancement to the prudential reportorial requirements. these exercise will enable the bsp to gather more data and information for financial surveillance analysis and policy development. within the bsp, we have also embraced sustainability principles with the formal launch of our sustainable central banking program. we have taken significant strides in this space as a recognized champion of the sustainability agenda. first, the bsp has invested usd 550 million in the green bond fund of the bank for international settlements. second, we are conducting a vulnerability assessment of the bsp branches in the region to determine our potential losses in case of severe hazards. along this line, we launched a design competition for the new bsp complex to be built in new clark city. the bsp complex is envisioned to become a global benchmark for a smart, green, and modern facility that promotes environmental sustainability and efficiency. finally, we continue to strengthen engagement with varied stakeholders in the domestic and international fronts to intensify our campaign for the adoption of sustainability principles. to further strengthen financial stability, the bsp is supporting key legislations. these include the deposit secrecy bill, financial consumer protection act, and the amendments to the agri - agra mandatory credit allocation. the bsp is pushing for the amendment of the bank secrecy laws to ensure the conduct of effective supervision of banks. we believe that bsp should be granted unimpaired access to information on depositors to fulfill its supervision mandate and protect the interests of depositors. 5 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches the financial consumer protection bill will provide a comprehensive financial consumer protection regime that consolidates financial inclusion, financial education, good governance, and effective supervision for the purpose of consumer protection. meanwhile, the amendments to the agri - agra law recommends a financing approach that considers the requirements of the broader agricultural ecosystem. the proposed amendments to the law are envisioned to strengthen rural development and improve well - being of agricultural and rural community beneficiaries. in closing, we look forward to baiphil ’ s utmost support and commitment as we pursue our financial sector stability and resiliency agenda. aside from further training and conduct of fora, baiphil

target of 3. 0 percent ± 1. 0 percentage point for 2021. based on latest data, we expect point inflation for november to range from 3. 3 to 4. 1 percent. the latest cpi outturn is consistent with the bsp projections that while inflation could remain elevated in the near term, it would start to fall within the target range by the end of the year. meanwhile, inflation expectations remain firmly aligned with the baseline projection path for 20222023. results of the bsp ’ s survey of private sector economists for november 2021 showed an elevated mean inflation forecast of 4. 4 percent for 2021, 3. 5 percent for 2022 and 3. 2 percent for 2023. liquidity in the financial system remains ample, expanding by 8. 2 percent year - on - year in september 2021. this was faster than the 6. 9 - percent growth recorded in august on a monthon - month seasonally adjusted basis, m3 rose by 1. 3 percent. credit activity increased 2. 7 percent in september 2021, faster than the 1. 3 - percent expansion in august. the continued growth for the second month in outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks reflects the modest recovery in banks ’ overall lending attitudes along with 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches improved economic prospects. as of end - september 2021, gross non - performing loan ratio of the philippine banking system ( pbs ) stood at 4. 4 percent, higher compared to 3. 5 percent a year ago. the uptick, however, was accompanied by loan - loss provisioning with a non - performing loans coverage ratio of 84. 4 percent. the philippine banking system remains well - capitalized. as of the second quarter of 2021, its capital adequacy ratio is at 17. 2 percent, well above the 10 percent minimum threshold set by the bsp and the 8 percent set by the bank for international settlements. on the external front. the sustained rebound in key economies has spurred external demand. the country ’ s exports and imports of goods increased by 21. 3 percent and 31. 6 percent, respectively. cash remittances from overseas filipinos grew by 5. 6 percent in january to september 2021, from a 1. 4 percent contraction in the same period in 2020. meanwhile, business process outsourcing services in the first half of 2021 remained strong despite the disruption in business activities around the world. net foreign direct investments for the first eight months of 2021 increased due to positive foreign investor sentiment