mark carney : living with low for long remarks by mr mark carney, governor of the bank of canada, at the economic club of canada, toronto, 13 december 2010. * * * introduction i would like to thank the economic club of canada for this opportunity to reflect on the current economic and financial trends. i am sure many in this room would like me to stop at the title, “ living with low for long, ” so you can go merrily into the christmas holidays, content that i have just provided an early present of extraordinary guidance on future canadian monetary policy. however, i am not bearing gifts today. canadian monetary policy will continue to be set, as it has in the past, for overall canadian conditions and guided by our 2 per cent inflation target. in my remarks today, i will focus on the factors that have led to a low - interest - rate environment in major advanced economies, and the implications of this environment for financial stability and economic growth. global economic outlook current turbulence in europe is a reminder that the crisis is not over, but has merely entered a new phase. in a world awash with debt, repairing the balance sheets of banks, households and countries will take years. as a consequence, the pace, pattern and variability of global economic growth is changing, and canada must adapt. for the crisis economies, the easy bit of the recovery is now finished. temporary factors supporting growth in 2010 – such as the turn in the inventory cycle and the release of pentup demand – have largely run their course. fiscal stimulus is turning to fiscal drag and, for some countries, rapid consolidation has become urgent. household expenditure can be expected to recover only slowly. this all implies a gradual absorption of the large excess capacity in many advanced economies. this is not surprising. history suggests that recessions involving financial crises tend to be deeper and have recoveries that take twice as long. in the decade following severe financial crises, growth rates tend to be one percentage point lower and unemployment rates five percentage points higher. 1 the current u. s. recovery is proving no exception. in such an environment, very low policy rates in the major advanced economies could be in place for a prolonged period – a possibility underscored by the recent extensions of unconventional monetary policies in the united states, japan and europe. this tendency towards low - interest rates is being reinforced by structural forces. the global economy is rapidly becoming multi - polar, with emerging - market economies now driving commodity prices, representing almost

francois villeroy de galhau : what responses to terms of trade shocks in poor and vulnerable countries? speech by mr francois villeroy de galhau, governor of the bank of france, at the bank of france - ferdi ( fondation pour les etudes et recherches sur le developpement international ) conference, paris, 24 january 2017. * * * good morning and welcome to all in the auditorium of the banque de france. it is a great pleasure to welcome you here with patrick guillaumont, president of ferdi and coorganiser of this conference, to whom i extend my warmest greetings. i would also like to welcome jan gunning, professor emeritus at the free university of amsterdam, as well as all the speakers who honour us with their presence. the banque de france has established research partnerships with several foundations and universities : the paris school of economics, the toulouse school of economics and the fondation nationale des sciences politiques. the partnership with ferdi ( fondation pour les etudes et recherches sur le developpement international ), which we are pleased about, focuses on extending and enriching discussions and research on monetary and financial issues related to development, including : the financing of development, in particular the mobilisation of domestic and international savings, the competitiveness of african countries and exchange regimes and strategies, regional integration in africa, which was the theme of our first conference in 2014, the “ curse ” of commodities in low - income countries, and the management of the dutch syndrome and the terms of trade cycles, i. e. changes in the relative prices of exports compared to imports : this is the theme of today ’ s conference. the subject chosen is highly topical, following the very sharp drop in commodity prices, in particular oil prices, between mid - 2014 and early 2016, the effects of which on exporting countries had been underestimated, both by the countries themselves, but also by the international financial community. thus, the economic growth forecasts for sub - saharan africa made by the main international organisations were revised downwards only very late. in january 2016, the imf still expected sub - saharan africa to grow by 4 % in 2016 and by 4. 7 % in 2017, but the forecasts in the october 2016 global economic outlook were only 1. 4 % for 2016 and 2. 9 % for 2017, almost solely as a result of the recession in the oil economies. the ivorian economy