, bis central bankers ’ speeches i. e. those for july and august, show a certain moderation in the rate of job creation in this period, albeit still in a positive vein. labour costs continued to moderate in the first half of the year, reflecting the greater flexibility with which firms can adjust their labour conditions to the macroeconomic environment. if the trend prevailing in the past year and a half continues, the rise in employment may put the unemployment rate at around 20 % in 2016 q4. in the realm of inflation, the recent energy price falls have interrupted the course of recovery of the cpi. after posting positive year - on - year rates in june and july, for the first time in nearly a year, the overall price index slipped back ( by – 0. 4 % ) in august. it is important, however, to emphasise the temporary nature of this new bout of disinflation, linked to the recent oil price fall in the international markets. in fact, the rate of change of the cpi excluding energy increased by 0. 9 % in august, growing slightly faster than in july, while the indicator which excludes unprocessed food as well, so - called “ core inflation ”, grew by 0. 7 %. the latest data have not invalidated the outlook for gradual recovery of inflation reflected in the most recent forecasts. budgetary policy in 2016 as i have said in previous appearances before the senate, the primary objective of budgetary policy is to ensure that the recovery is underpinned by lasting stability. in particular, it is indispensable to persevere with the strategy of fiscal consolidation leading to the stabilisation and subsequent reduction of the public debt ratio. the improvement in the cyclical conditions envisaged in the macroeconomic scenario used to prepare the draft budget has a positive effect on public finances owing to increased tax collection, a further drop in unemployment benefits and a progressive reduction of the average interest rates paid on public debt. all this means that the budgetary policy measures to meet the budget deficit targets are less costly. specifically, the draft state budget envisages economic growth of 3. 0 % for 2016, slightly below the 3. 3 % projected for 2015, with growth of domestic demand and a progressive recovery of inflation rates which would lead to an increase in nominal gdp of nearly 4 %. against this background, the overall general government deficit for the coming year will foreseeably stand below 3 %, the ceiling established in

as i reported to this very parliament, early this year the banco de espana approved its strategic plan, whose essential content has been made public. based on an analysis of the challenges facing the institution and its main strengths and weaknesses, the plan sets out the priority objectives for the coming years and the actions required to accomplish them. aside from the importance of this exercise from the standpoint of internal coordination, i believe the drawing up and publication of this plan is a fundamental transparencyenhancing factor that will facilitate evaluation of the effectiveness of the bank ’ s actions. accordingly, under the strategic plan our activities will be subject to assessments. should you see fit, we could report to this house on the content of the strategic plan, headway made in its implementation and the results of the assessments. i will now turn to another aspect that is key to understanding the correct configuration of an independent authority : good governance. this is understood not only in terms of observing certain basic principles of public action ( such as efficacy and effectiveness ) or of impartiality and due diligence, but also of implementing procedures and collegiate decisions to ensure that the primary institutional course of action is to uphold the public interest. as i have already said, the banco de espana has collegiate bodies, such as the governing council and the executive board. these, along with the governor and the deputy governor, make up its governing bodies. the fact that these collegiate bodies have broad powers in relation to the functions of the bank and that a majority ( six ) of the members of the governing council are elected and have recognised competence in the field of economics, the financial system or the legal arena, reinforces the independence of our institution. https : / / eur - lex. europa. eu / legal - content / en / txt / html /? uri = celex : 52019xb0308 ( 01 ) & from = en a further good governance practice is having a structure of committees to support the governing bodies. these are able to appropriately assess and address the various matters that fall within the organisation ’ s remit, ensuring an overall view and that all the relevant areas of the institution participate in the analysis of the issue concerned. this is the situation currently existing at the banco de espana, which has a solid structure based on an audit committee and 12 other committees, some with a very significant mandate, such as the steering committee and the recently created financial stability committee. this modus operandi is particularly important for