them directly related to covid - 19. u. s. imports have been disrupted both at the point of export and at u. s. ports, with backups at major ports larger than some have ever experienced. thus, a lack of inputs and a lack of labor to use them have created a dramatic headwind for gdp. fortunately, there is already evidence that the delta surge has begun to wane and, with the reopening of schools ( and the expectation that they will remain open in most areas ), that the worst effects of delta, medically and economically, may be behind us. likewise, fears that delta would lead health officials to mandate more severe business restrictions have not materialized. furthermore, the spread of the delta variant has raised vaccination rates even in areas where they had been low, which will help contain the spread of the delta variant. all of this recent experience encourages me to believe that the moderation in the expansion of economic activity in recent months that is directly related to the delta surge will be a temporary phenomenon. i expect that this slowdown has only delayed the economic recovery into the first half of 2022, and thus i moved what i thought would be strong growth in the second half of this year into the first half of next year. this delay means that my medium - term outlook for economic growth really has not changed much at all, and that i forecast the strong recovery will continue. the labor market is healing 1 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches let me now turn to the recent job reports. for the month of august, i and many forecasters expected the economy would create 700, 000 jobs or more, but the initial number came in at a disappointing 235, 000. hopes turned to september, but that report disappointed as well, with 194, 000 jobs created. despite these unexpectedly low numbers, there is still some good news from the september report — namely, that the disappointing number was due to unexpected declines in employment by state and local governments that may be attributed to limited labor supply that will work itself out in coming months. private payrolls increased a healthy 317, 000 jobs in september, and the july and august payrolls were revised up by 169, 000 jobs. nevertheless, the numbers are concerning, given that as many as 8 million workers may have rolled off unemployment insurance programs in september. it is difficult to imagine that, going forward, these workers will continue to remain on the sidelines. this suggests we may be in for very

andreas dombret : back home – making the g20 summit commitments work speech by dr andreas dombret, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the 14th euro finance week, frankfurt am main, 15 november 2011. * * * introduction ladies and gentlemen, the recent g20 summit in cannes was another decisive step towards a more resilient international financial system. the work to develop a new regulatory framework is slowly but surely nearing completion. nevertheless, we still have a long way to go to make the commitments work back home. ultimately, it is the globally consistent implementation and transposition of the agreed policy measures into national laws and regulations that will count. in terms of effectiveness and consistency of these internationally agreed reforms and standards, it is therefore a great plus for the international community that the fsb is strengthening its implementation monitoring. i would like to focus on three key areas where consistent implementation is most critical : 1. addressing the risks posed by systemically important financial institutions ( sifis for short ), 2. strengthening oversight and regulation of the shadow banking system and 3. putting into effect the new capital and liquidity standards for banks, known as basel iii. i would now like to briefly discuss these areas in more detail. dealing with sifis the past few months have witnessed substantial progress in tackling the sifi problem. in cannes, the g20 endorsed the comprehensive policy framework presented to them by the financial stability board ( fsb ). the requirement for sifis to hold additional capital above the basel iii minimum standards – which was specified by the basel committee on banking supervision – lies at the heart of this concept. to this end, an initial set of 29 global systemically important banks has been identified. to take account of dynamics within the financial system, the set will be updated annually with respect to its number as well as its composition. sifis will have to meet the additional loss absorbency requirements with common tier 1 capital, which is a particularly good buffer for covering losses. the specific amount will be determined on the basis of each sifi ’ s systemic importance, currently ranging from 1. 0 % to 2. 5 % of risk - weighted assets. i very much appreciate the fsb ’ s recommendations, as such capital add - ons are an appropriate measure for improving the resilience of sifis, forcing their owners to take greater responsibility for their actions. moreover, they put a price tag on the implicit government guarantee that