to 2. 5 percent, and 1. 2 to 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively ( chart 8 ). turning to prices, they are likely to be under considerable downward pressure from the effects of a particular factor - - namely, the significant decline in mobile phone charges. however, as for other items, price cuts that aim at stimulating demand have not been and are not likely to be observed widely. thereafter, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi is expected to increase gradually, on the back of the output gap continuing to improve along with economic recovery and the effects of the reduction in mobile phone charges dissipating. in the april outlook report, the forecasts of the majority of policy board members for the year - on - year rate of change in the core cpi are in the range of 0. 0 to 0. 2 percent, 0. 5 to 0. 9 percent, and 0. 7 to 1. 0 percent for fiscal 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively ( chart 8 ). however, the outlook for economic activity and prices remains highly unclear. in particular, the impact of covid - 19 on domestic and overseas economies continues to require close and careful monitoring. the outlook is based on the assumption that the impact of covid - 19 will wane gradually and then almost subside in the middle of the projection period. however, the pace of the vaccine rollout and the effectiveness of the vaccines entail uncertainties, and thus there is a risk that downward pressure on economic activity will increase. it is also uncertain how firms'and households'appetite for spending and their behavior, including price setting, will change due to the shock caused by covid - 19 that has pushed down the economy considerably. moreover, if covid - 19 has a larger impact than expected, attention should be paid to the risk that deterioration in the real economy will affect financial system stability, thereby exerting further downward pressure on the real economy. ii. conduct of monetary policy with regard to the bank's policy conduct, i would like to talk about ( 1 ) policy responses in light of the impact of covid - 19 and ( 2 ) further effective and sustainable monetary easing. a. policy responses in light of the impact of covid - 19 let me first touch on policy responses in light of the impact of covid - 19. the bank has conducted powerful monetary easing since march 2020 in response to

expectations upward for both the short term and the medium to long term. like other advanced countries, japan had been witnessing the phenomenon of the rate of increase in the cpi becoming less sensitive to changes in the output gap over recent years – the so - called flattened phillips curve. nonetheless, the bank assessed that the cpi inflation was likely to rise gradually based on the already - mentioned considerations : ( 1 ) an expected further improvement in the output gap ; ( 2 ) expected tighter labor market conditions, partly as a result of growing economic activity ; and ( 3 ) rising inflation expectations of firms and households. the increase in international commodity prices and the yen ’ s depreciation also contributed to the rising inflation prospects. based on these observations, it was expected that the uptrend in the cpi would probably be achieved, even though those movements would be partially offset by downward pressures stemming from intense competition among domestic firms, intensified cross - border competition under deepened globalization, and advances in information and telecommunication technology. the growth rate of the core cpi was thus estimated to be within the range of 0 – 1 percent in fiscal 2006 and would approach the level of slightly below 1 percent in fiscal 2007. in march 2006, the bank thus concluded that it was time to exit the qe policy since the conditions laid out in the commitment had been fulfilled. 6 therefore, the decision was made to reintroduce the standard uncollateralized overnight call rate as an operating target for money market operations instead of the outstanding balance of current accounts at the bank. also, the new target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate was set at effectively 0 percent. at the same time, the bank adopted a new framework for the conduct of monetary policy by setting the “ understanding of medium - to long - term price stability. ” this is the level of the cpi inflation rate currently recognized as price stability by each member of the policy board of the bank. an agreement was made among board members that a range of such an inflation rate would remain approximately between 0 and 2 percent with the median of 1 percent. it was also agreed that the rate would be reviewed annually. you may wonder why the range of inflation was lower than that of many other advanced countries. this is because the bank found it important to take into account past price movements : namely, the average rate of inflation over the previous few decades had been lower than that of major overseas economies and had been low even during the bubble period of the 1980s. in addition, japan