been upgraded from $ 71 billion to $ 88 billion, chiefly on the back of a higher value of oil and gas exports. the balance of the financial account of the private sector has also been raised from with $ 20 billion to $ 35 billion. this is based on the actual data for the first two months of the year along with greater opportunities for the buildup of foreign assets given the higher export revenues. over a mediumterm horizon, balance of payments trends remain unchanged. this year ’ s revision of the estimate for foreign currency reserves from $ 52 billion to $ 59 billion comes a result of higher foreign currency purchase volumes based on the fiscal rule in the context of higher oil prices. in conclusion, i would like to make the following comment. should the situation unfold according to our baseline forecast, we hold open the prospect of a key rate reduction somewhat sooner than we assumed back in december last year. we do not rule out that this may occur in 2019. the bank of russia will make its key rate decisions, as it always does, taking into account inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast as well as risks posed by external conditions and the reaction of financial markets. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

consumer loans to the pre - pandemic level. however, given recent months ’ data, we will soon make a decision on additional macroprudential measures to cool down this segment of the retail market. 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches i will now speak on possible risks to the forecast. proinflationary risks continue to prevail. we consider that the main risk is a potential anchoring of inflation expectations at a high level. fuelled by high inflation expectations, temporary growth might become sustained. there is a slight increase in risks associated with a possible faster normalisation of monetary policies in advanced economies. as a result, market volatility in emerging market economies might intensify, which can affect exchange rate and inflation expectations. there are also certain risks caused by structural changes in the labour market due to the pandemic. the demand for some professions is declining, whereas the demand for others is rising. this is confirmed by data on a record - high increase in vacant jobs. adjusting to the new needs of the economy requires time for specialist retraining. consequently, this provokes local staff shortages. the situation is aggravated even more due to the restrictions on the inflow of labour migrants, which affects construction and seasonal agricultural works most seriously. the situation in the labour market might increase companies ’ costs. proinflationary risks associated with the environment in global commodity markets persist. nonetheless, june — july recorded the first signs of a decline in world prices. therefore, i would say that this risk is less acute than at the moment of our previous key rate meeting. furthermore, investment from the national wealth fund and geopolitical risks are still in the focus of our attention. disinflationary factors are much weaker. a rich harvest might result in a more significant seasonal decrease in food prices. the pandemic situation is still uncertain. the spread of new coronavirus strains worldwide might force countries to introduce new restrictions and disrupt production and supply chains, which in turn might slow down global economic recovery. for russia, this would involve a decrease in external demand and intensify disinflationary risks, on the one hand. on the other hand, if borders are closed, domestic demand will remain elevated longer, which might become a proinflationary factor. in conclusion, i would like to comment on monetary policy prospects. beginning from march, we have raised the key rate by a total of 2. 25 percentage points. we will