in a certain area. we also hope that next year, along with the transposition of the updated capital requirements directive, our arsenal will be complemented by the possibility to impose additional sectoral capital requirements for commercial banks. they would allow increasing capital requirements for separate loan types – for instance, to purchase housing registered in a particular city. and finally : both the nature and economy love balance or, in other words, one ’ s misfortune can turn out to be another ’ s find. in this case, it also cannot be ruled out that the current health emergency may give an impetus to the housing market in some respect. for instance, an increase in remote work gives rise to a need for a separate working space, which may encourage households to look for more spacious homes, while savings made due to restrictions on travel or leisure may encourage investment in housing. i understand that such considerations may sound overly optimistic and reassuring, thus i would like to add a warning : it is not yet time to pop the champagne cork. we are now in our second lockdown, which may not be the last one. this time, forecasting its fallout on the economy and, simultaneously, on the real estate market is definitely not a simple task. meanwhile, there is, unfortunately, an extremely wide array of risks unfolding before our eyes. for example, will the housing market maintain its high resilience level? or will households be able to successfully meet their existing liabilities? the pandemic and the imposed economic restrictions have hit catering, accommodation and travel - related services particularly hard. it is true that these activities account for a minor share of gdp, comprising less than 2 %. however, these sectors typically employ younger staff aged between 18 and 35. and it is young people who are the most active homebuyers or tenants. dear all, the commercial real estate market showed signs of uncertainty even before the second lockdown. and the recent trends indicate that the outlook of this segment remains uncertain. 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches the pandemic may tilt the scales to the benefit of the housing market, yet the implications for the commercial real estate market will often be the opposite. for instance, the vacancy rate of office space in vilnius is projected to increase substantially next year, which will certainly be mostly determined by the shift to remote work. moreover, the pandemic has disrupted brick - and - mortar trade and accelerated a shift towards electronic commerce, which adds to the pressure in some

parts of the commercial real estate market. for instance, rental income of certain shopping centres fell by nearly one - third in the second quarter of the year. limited data available for the third quarter suggests that partially lifted movement restrictions have also brought rental income from commercial property back to its previous level. nonetheless, it looks like the commercial sector is set to undergo significant changes, which require adequate preparation and a realistic assessment of future prospects. hence, the commercial real estate market is facing serious challenges, which will become even more daunting if the current situation leads to a structural break and evolve into “ a new normal ” in the post - pandemic world. the situation of real estate developers and construction enterprises is also far from unambiguous. it is true that financial performance of construction companies remain sustainable, the existing stock of liquid assets is much larger than before the previous crisis, while the debt level is now much lower. however, the problem is that this sector is particularly vulnerable to internal and external shocks due to its pro - cyclicality. let me explain what i mean. the global economy is obviously going through the biggest shock since world war ii. growth forecasts for the world ’ s major economies do not indicate a rapid recovery, while global trade has slowed down. all of this means that lithuania ’ s economic growth in the near future should also be more sluggish than that to which we have become used to. looking back at the previous crisis, memories of which have not yet faded away, it can be stated that the construction sector is usually among the first to feel the effects of economic deterioration. therefore, it is necessary to think several steps ahead, duly assess the risks taken and build up sufficient buffers for inevitable contingencies in order to adequately adapt to the changing situation in the real estate market. this implies careful preparations for potential developments. dear viewers and listeners, as much as we are concerned about the current issues, we cannot forget the risks that have built up before the pandemic and are relevant to all segments of the real estate market. today, these risks have to be observed and assessed with particular care. first of all, i would like to mention demography. lithuania ’ s population is ageing, despite noticeable improvements in the country ’ s migratory balance. the european commission ’ s estimates continue to show that the share of people aged between 18 and 35 in the country ’ s population will decrease by approximately one - fifth in a decade ’ s time. if