analysis, personal income and outlays, via haver analytics. core goods pce core services pce motor vehicles pce note : pce is personal consumption expenditures. source : bureau of economic analysis, personal income and outlays, via haver analytics. figure 5. fomc participants project a higher federal funds rate path 3. 0 annual percent march 2022 2. 5 3. 0 2. 5 december 2021 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 1. 5 september 2021 1. 0 0. 5 1. 0 june 2021 0. 0 0. 5 0. 0 note : figure reports the median expectation of fomc participants for the federal funds rate at the end of the year indicated. source : summary of economic projections, available on the board ’ s website at https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / fomccalendars. htm. figure 6. three soft landings federal funds rate, percent monthly - 2 - 2 note : the shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research ( nber ) : december 1969 to november 1970, november 1973 to march 1975, january 1980 to july 1980, july 1981 to november 1982, july 1990 to march 1991, march 2001 to november 2001, december 2007 to june 2009, and february 2020 to april 2020. source : federal reseve board, statistical release h. 15, " selected interest rates ". figure 7. longer - run expectations remain wellanchored in their historical ranges 5. 0 monthly percent 5. 0 4. 5 4. 5 4. 0 4. 0 3. 5 3. 5 3. 0 3. 0 2. 5 2. 5 2. 0 2. 0 note : the series are medians of the survey responses about average inflation during the next 5 to 10 years. march data are preliminary. source : university of michigan surveys of consumers.

committee on payment and settlement systems. second, this conference will focus on the integrative processes in the field of payments within the european union. we are all aware that the financial integration in europe is important for both the increase of competition and the support of economic growth. ever since the single currency was introduced, the integration of financial markets has advanced much faster in terms of integration in the field of payments. however, the crisis has conditioned a segmentation of the european financial markets, while the convergence of payment habits has been an ongoing process supported in large by the european sepa project. the implementation of sepa project has inspired new integration processes in the european union, which proved to be necessary in times of economic and financial instability, such as building the banking union by establishing the single supervisory mechanism, the single resolution mechanism for banks and the unique rules regulating the deposit insurance schemes. therefore, the integration in many fields is a consequence of the bis central bankers ’ speeches monetary integration in the european union, which was timely foreseen in the field of payments where we have gradual and continued integration. however, the ultimate goal of sepa is not to make the users of payment services behave uniformly, but to harmonize principles, business practices, and rules and technical standards for conducting payments. in that respect, recently, the main focus was the migration of credit transfers and direct debts under the sepa standards, with the deadline for the members of the euro area being august 2014. in the period ahead, the efforts within the sepa project are expected to aim towards harmonization of card payments. this is understandable considering the fact that the latest empirical research confirms the positive influence of the transfer from currency to electronic payment instruments on consumption, trade and economic growth, with the effects of card usage being the greatest, compared to other payment instruments1. third, besides novelties in the field of payments, this conference traditionally includes the trends in securities settlement systems. therefore, the discussions will be aimed towards the implementation of the “ target2 securities ” project, which is expected to facilitate realtime cross - border settlement of transactions in securities on the “ delivery versus payment ” principle, by integrating transaction accounts and securities accounts on a single platform. this project is aimed towards strengthening the integration of the financial market infrastructure, which is expected to contribute towards increasing competition, lower costs for settlement and greater financial stability. discussions related to this topic will also include the latest trends in collateral and liquidity management taking into account the latest changes in