closer to 2 % in the absence of load - shedding. south africa's underwhelming economic performance is not new ; the country's chronic low - growth problem predates the pandemic. in the five - year period before covid - 19, growth averaged just 1 % – compared to the 3. 5 % growth achieved by a typical emerging market economy. one of the main challenges to achieving higher growth is weak investment levels. south african investment lingers close to 16 % of gdp compared to the 25 % level achieved by comparative peers. from a macroeconomic perspective, a key constraint to achieving higher investment levels in south africa is persistent fiscal dissaving. high public debt levels raise the risk premium, pushing up the cost of borrowing to around 11 % today. 2 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches the low - investment problem is worsened by the composition of public spending, which is geared more towards current consumption than infrastructure. the reversal of the economy's terms of trade risks worsening the fiscal outlook. between january 2020 and march 2022, the prices for south africa's major commodities – such as gold, iron ore, platinum group metals and coal – doubled. since then, however, these prices have been falling consistently and by as much as 23. 8 % over six months alone. as funding needs grow, and as domestic saving remains weak, the need for foreign savings has widened. the current account deficit is now expected to expand from 0. 5 % in 2022 to 3. 3 % by 2025. headline inflation rose sharply this past year, surpassing the upper end of the 3 – 6 % inflation target band in april 2022 and reaching a 13 - year high of 7. 8 % in july 2022. inflation has since moderated, albeit with some volatility, and finally returned to the target band in june 2023, when it reached 5. 4 %. the moderation can largely be attributed to lower global food and fuel prices in recent months, as well as lower imported inflation due to easing supply chain disruptions and easing demand conditions. a more pronounced moderation in inflation is expected in the latter years of the forecast horizon, with headline inflation expected to ease to an annual average of 5. 0 % in 2024 and 4. 5 % in 2025. the risks to inflation are still assessed to be on the upside. rising services inflation and elevated administered price inflation continue to put upward pressure on prices. these pressures are

; and sexual harassment. as we know, diverse organisations are more resilient and more responsive, and better placed to serve the public. that spirit of public service extends to our engagements with stakeholders through our economic roundtables, publications, investor sessions, monetary policy and financial stability forums, as well as our corporate social investment ( csi ) work. our csi efforts are geared towards broadening the understanding of monetary policy, growing the pool of skills in areas such as economics and finance, and supporting people from disadvantaged communities. this includes bursaries for 102 students from first - year to master's level, and partnerships with four universities, to develop programmes that focus on monetary policy, financial stability and economic journalism. conclusion 6 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches as the sarb is approaching the final stretch of its strategy 2025, i am pleased that significant progress has been made in its implementation. despite the prevailing global and domestic economic conditions, we remain on course to deliver against our five strategic focus areas ( sfas ) and the enablement functions that support our strategy. as i indicated earlier, high inflation remains a concern and played a significant role in the sarb's inability to achieve its target set out in its sfa 1 : keeping inflation within the target range of 3 – 6 %. appropriate monetary policy actions have contributed to an easing of inflation, with the consumer price index at 5. 4 % in june 2023. this again underscores the sarb's commitment to price stability. enhancing resilience to external shocks, the basis of sfa 4, also proved challenging in the face of high government debt levels. despite the many challenges to central banking that have emerged in recent years, both globally and domestically, i am confident that we have the human capacity to analyse those challenges and to work together with our partners in the public and private sectors to increase the resilience of our economy and financial system to meet any challenges head - on. in this ongoing process, central banks need to remain focused on their core mandates as the best way to ensuring that the economy can grow. we must hold fast to our mandate of ensuring price stability in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth – and we must do so without fear, favour or prejudice. in doing so, we will ensure that the economy has a stable foundation – one that is resilient and flexible in addressing the many challenges we will undoubtedly continue to face. i would like to express a heartfelt