lending support to consumer demand. various central banks eased their monetary policy in the autumn in light of modest inflation and the economic risks. moreover, they signalled that they would probably leave their policy rates at a low level for an extended period of time. the snb is maintaining its existing baseline scenario for the global economy, and expects momentum to remain modest over the short term. the monetary policy easing is likely to contribute to the economy – and thus also inflation – picking up again over the medium term. risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside. chief among them are still trade tensions and the possibility of the persisting weakness in manufacturing activity spreading to the economy as a whole. swiss economic outlook according to the initial estimate, the swiss economy grew by 1. 6 % in the third quarter. this growth was primarily driven by manufacturing, where value added increased significantly thanks to strong growth in the exports of pharmaceutical products. the other industries in the manufacturing sector recorded a more modest expansion, in line with the slowdown in manufacturing worldwide. the labour market continues to be a mainstay of the economy. employment figures rose again slightly, and the unemployment rate persisted at a low level through to november. gdp is likely to expand by around 1 % in 2019, and the snb expects growth of between 1. 5 % and 2 % in 2020. the stronger expansion next year reflects the gradual firming expected in global economic activity as well as an exceptional effect. the latter stems from the fact that the forecast includes the revenue generated by major international sporting events, which is likely to increase growth by around half a percentage point. monetary situation and inflation expectations let me now move on to address monetary conditions – that is to say, exchange rates and interest rates – as well as inflation expectations. page 2 / 6 berne, 12 december 2019 thomas jordan news conference the external value of the swiss franc has remained stable since the monetary policy assessment in september. there has also been scarcely any change in the trade - weighted exchange rate over 2019 as a whole, although it initially declined before appreciating again in the summer. the swiss franc thus remains highly valued, and the situation on the foreign exchange market is still fragile. short - term interest rates are close to the snb policy rate. the long - term swiss franc rates reached new lows in the summer, and have recovered only slightly since. this pattern reflects global interest rate movements. the yield on 10 - year swiss confederation bonds currently

while people ’ s faith in the currency is an essential precondition for successful monetary policy, organising public lectures on religion may seem a little farfetched. however, allow me to reassure you that ben has also published over 150 academic articles on monetary policy, macroeconomics and financial markets. he is therefore a most logical candidate to give the karl brunner distinguished lecture, even on a topic that may seem unusual at first sight. born in louisville, kentucky, benjamin friedman went to harvard university with the intention of studying law, but soon realised that economics suited him better. he pursued his studies at harvard and at cambridge university in england. early in his career, ben worked for various entities of the federal reserve system and at morgan stanley. in 1972, at the age of 25, he was appointed assistant professor of economics at harvard university. ben has remained a loyal faculty member at harvard for five decades, including a three - year spell as the chairman of the economics department. page 2 / 4 when ben recently celebrated 50 years as a professor at harvard, many of his former students travelled from all around the world to attend the occasion. the interaction with his students has been of utmost importance to ben, and he would remain in contact with them for decades following their graduation. a number of these former students today occupy leading positions in academia, central banking and government. this shows that ben has been not only an outstanding researcher, but also an influential teacher of economics. spending 50 years in the same place is not as unusual as one might think, at least not when we consider some of the great enlightenment thinkers ben so deeply admires. take immanuel kant, who developed his philosophy without ever leaving his hometown of konigsberg. according to legend, kant became such an integral part of the city that people would set their watch by the time he left his house for his afternoon walk. whether ben ’ s daily routines have the same effect on the people in cambridge, massachusetts, we do not know. what we do know is that, fortunately for us, ben is not quite as averse to travelling as kant was. most importantly, he lets his mind travel, exploring not only the world of economics but many other disciplines as well. but let me say a few more words about ben ’ s contributions to monetary economics. his research covers all aspects of monetary policy. it spans everything from the technical details of how central banks steer short - term interest rates in money markets to fundamental questions about the mandate