risks facing the chilean economy. this institutional continuity is important when we are only a few months away from a new congress and a new administration, a transition that always involves challenges and in which it is important for the newcomers to be familiar with the prospects for the economy. in the past few months, domestic activity has evolved as expected. the stronger external impulse has consolidated, with still favorable financial conditions, trading partners that, on average, are somewhat more dynamic and better terms of trade. nonetheless, inflation has stayed below the forecasts of the september mp report. most of the difference is related to the more volatile items in the basket, as core inflation — which we measure with the so - called cpiefe1 — is near expected levels. the projections that i will present to you in a moment assume that the convergence of inflation will take somewhat longer than we anticipated in the last mp report. this considers the effect of the recent surprises and the evolution of the exchange rate up to the report ’ s statistical cutoff. it also assumes that activity growth will gradually speed up its pace, from its bounded present levels to above potential in the second half of 2018, yielding the way to close the output gap that will help inflation to converge within the projection horizon. in any case, there are still significant risks surrounding the baseline scenario depicted in this mp report. on the one hand, some sectors still lag behind in the recovery process, especially some relating to investment. on the other hand, a scenario in which the economy does not return to higher growth rates in the coming months, can affect the recovery of growth in the medium term. in particular, because even though expectations have improved in general, they have done so by anticipating a better future economic performance rather than by current results. in this context, we have held the monetary policy rate ( mpr ) at 2. 5 % since may and we expect that, if the baseline scenario comes true, we will keep the monetary impulse near its current levels, to begin withdrawing it only once the economy begins to close the activity gap. anyway, it is important to carefully monitor any downward deviations of inflation in the short term, because in the context of a weak economy, low inflation and some measures of medium - term inflation expectations remaining somewhat below 3 %, the convergence of inflation could be affected, in which case it would be necessary to make the already expansionary monetary policy more so. the financial conditions have helped to shape the macroeconomic scenario described above. borrowing remains

transversal effort to involve the technological dimension in the different areas of our work. through several concrete initiatives, including technological laboratories and an observatory, we will enhance our capacity to comprehend, analyze and formulate hypotheses about the impact of disruptive technologies on the bank's business model and financial intermediaries, adopting innovations that can help us maintain the quality and availability of the services provided by the bank. we also aspire to perfect the regulatory framework in a timely manner in order to advance in those areas that offer an opportunity to strengthen the financial system and mitigate risks in the event that some of these disruptive technologies become accessible to everyone in the financial industry. our 2018 - 2022 strategic plan also includes various initiatives to strengthen the bank's insertion in its economic and institutional environment. i can mention some efforts to simplify regulations, ensure environmental and financial sustainability, active transparency and financial education. with this we seek to reflect that the central bank of chile, despite being an autonomous institution of an essentially technical nature, is recognized as part of the society in which it must lead by example as an organization. as we have said before, this strategic plan does not intend to reinvent the bank or ignore its great achievements, but to recognize that the prestige gained is always exposed to new challenges and demands and that must be conquered day after day. likewise, this is neither an exhaustive plan nor a list of the only relevant topics for the institution, but a select set of actions that are necessary for achieving the expected results in the five focal points listed above. this plan represents a commitment that includes all of us making up the central bank of chile, to enrich our main asset as a public institution : trust. trust is a mirror against which we can be appraised with the eyes of the rest of the country. that trust, more than norms and laws, is precisely what sustains the legitimacy and autonomy of our institution. therefore, the new congress and administration that will assume their respective functions in march, will be met by a central bank that, using the competences and mechanisms granted by its organic law, will have updated its corporate agenda and will continue to be a crucial institutional player to generate the conditions of macroeconomic stability on which the country's progress is based. thank you. figure 1 inflation indicators ( * ) ( annual change, percent ) services cpi cpiefe - 1 goods - 2 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 3 ( * ) as from january 2014