course, seasonally adjusted, [ zero percent inflation on an m - o - m basis is ] about 0. 3 percent. of course, an optimistic person would say, " finally, the supply shocks have ended, and we are on a target - consistent [ inflation ] path. " and that, indeed, is our forecast. [ headline inflation slowing ] from 8. 7 percent in january to 8. 6 percent this month [ february ] is a big thing because the m - o - m [ change ] is zero. what was really shocking was the january [ m - o - m inflation ] numbers - 1. 7 percent in just one month. facing supply pressures of domestic and international origins 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the causes of supply shocks are varied. they started with the [ ukraine - russia ] war [ that led to ] expensive fertilizer, expensive oil. all of those things are fading now. what we have is very unusual [ inflation ] : things that are small in the budget of a typical consumer are the main drivers of inflation, like onions and sugar. the problem there, especially in the case of sugar, is there were months when price increases were 5. 0 percent in just one month. and there were periods when year - on - year [ inflation ] was at 100 percent, largely because of protectionism and the fact that a bureaucracy [ that is ] very, very protective of the sugar industry determines how much should be imported. the other one [ domestic driver of inflation ] is [ the price of ] onions. we are talking of 50 percent [ price ] increases because of the weather, the virus killing pigs [ swine flu ] - in some cases, we had to kill the pigs. in other words, when it comes to bad luck, when it rains, it pours. year - end inflation seen to settle within target now, the last month [ m - o - m inflation figures ] - if that is a good predictor of the future - had a zero [ percent ] increase in prices from january to february. if you adjust for seasonality - because january [ inflation ] is usually higher than february, other things being equal - the increase is about 0. 3 percent. our main forecast is by november or december this year, headline inflation - which is essentially the price index [ this year ], divided by the price index 12 months ago - will be back to below 4. 0 percent, and it will be close to

the reopening of economies, remittances grew by 5. 1 percent in 2021 and 2. 4 percent in the first quarter alone of this year. another source of foreign exchange are receipts from business process outsourcing services. they grew by 9. 5 percent last year. in lien with the depreciation of other emerging market currencies due to the ukraine - russia conflict, the peso posted a manageable year - to - date depreciation of 2. 6 percent to 52. 37 pesos. the bsp observes a market - determined exchange rate policy. it intervenes only to ensure orderly market conditions and prevent excessive short - term volatility. another strength of the philippine economy is our sound and stable financial system, an offshoot of a long list of regulatory reforms since the asian financial crisis. prudent lending standards help banks keep their bad debts manageable while ample capitalization enables them to absorb shocks. credit rating agencies share the view of the philippine economy ’ s resilience. amid a wave of credit rating downgrades globally resulting from the pandemic, the philippines has managed to maintain all its investment - grade credit ratings. while policymakers were preoccupied with pandemic response, we did not lose focus on our vision of a stronger and more inclusive post - covid economy. the bsp is contributing to this vision through its digital transformation agenda. by 2023, bsp aims to digitalize at least half of retail payments and onboard at least 70 percent of filipino adults to the formal financial system through transaction accounts. complementing the agenda is the new financial products and services consumer protection act. the law improves the resolution mechanisms for financial consumer complaints, including those involving cybercrimes. the bsp has also issued six digital banking licenses. the covid - 19 pandemic emerged as a catalyst for digitalization. as a result of the pandemic, the volume and value of electronic payments in the country grew exponentially. the bsp also contributes to the vision of a stronger post - covid philippine economy through its sustainable finance agenda. we have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate sustainability principles into their operations. we are also among the early investors in the bank for international settlements ’ green bond fund and the asian green bond fund. we did not sit idly by as the virus raged. congress approved three landmark laws that further open the philippines to foreign investors. there are the amended retail trade liberalization act, the