actually do, but they are a reflection of the policymakers ’ views of appropriate policy. some have noted that the median path steepened ever so slightly. this should not come as a particular surprise as it likely just reveals greater confidence that the economy is improving. the rebound after the bad winter seems to be progressing, the outlook for unemployment is a bit better, and the inflation rate appears to be firming. the changes in the dots thus simply tell us something about individual policymakers reaction to the change in economic conditions. the fomc statement notes that the committee will adjust future funds rate decisions based on the progress toward our objectives. so, it is entirely reasonable that the expected path of “ appropriate policy ” should adjust as we close in on those objectives. indeed, it would be surprising if they did not behave in such a manner. i believe that we are closing in on our goals – perhaps faster than some people might think. so, while i supported the recent policy statement, i have growing concerns that we may have to adjust our communications in the not - too - distant future. specifically, i believe the forward guidance in the statement may be too passive, given underlying economic conditions. the benefits of systematic monetary policy let me now turn to the importance of conducting monetary policy in a systematic manner. by systematic policy, i mean conducting policy in a rule - like manner as opposed to relying on discretion. decisions are always made period by period, but in a rules - based approach, the decisions are guided by the rules. discretion is the opposite of rules - based decisionmaking. discretionary decisions are made without being constrained by past promises or previous forward - looking statements. the monetary policy debate over whether rule - like behavior is preferable to pure discretion dates back at least to henry simons in 1936. 1 more recently, in their nobel prize - winning henry c. simons, “ rules versus authorities in monetary policy ”, journal of political economy, 44 : 1 ( february 1936 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches work, finn kydland and ed prescott demonstrated that a credible commitment by policymakers to behave in a systematic rule - like manner leads to better outcomes than discretion. 2 since then, numerous papers using a variety of models have investigated the benefits of rule - like behavior in monetary policy and found that there are indeed significant benefits. policies characterized by commitment have been shown to lead to more economic stability. in fact, the mainstream theoretical models that we use for monetary and macroeconomic analysis are

john c williams : eclipse remarks by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the federal home loan bank of new york 2024 member symposium, new york city, 11 april 2024. * * * as prepared for delivery introduction good morning. the federal home loan bank of new york and the new york fed share a commitment to supporting economic strength in communities and households in our region. i look forward to speaking more about that in my discussion with president jose gonzalez in a few minutes. before we get to that conversation, i'll spend some time focusing on how the federal reserve is working to achieve our goals of maximum employment and price stability. i'll also discuss the significant progress we've seen in restoring balance to the economy and bringing inflation back down to the federal open market committee's ( fomc's ) 2 percent longer - run goal. finally, i'll share more on the trajectory of the fed's balance sheet as well as my view on where the economy is headed overall. now i need to provide the standard fed disclaimer that the views i express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the fomc or others in the federal reserve system. the dual mandate i'll turn to the numbers in a minute. but first, by a show of hands, how many of you witnessed the solar eclipse earlier this week? i'll leave the complex explanations of cosmic phenomena to dr. massimino, who i expect will give a fascinating presentation later today. but simply stated, an eclipse happens when several things are perfectly aligned. or, in the immortal words of pink floyd, when " everything under the sun is in tune. " like monday's eclipse, the federal reserve's dual mandate has two goals that need to be in tune with one another : maximum employment and price stability. restoring price stability is essential to achieving a sustainably strong labor market that benefits all. the overarching objective of monetary policy now is to properly balance restoring price stability and maintaining maximum employment, and the fomc remains strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time. strong employment, lower inflation the good news is that over the past year we have made considerable progress toward this objective. demand - supply imbalances have diminished. global supply chains, which were severely disrupted during the pandemic and early in the recovery, have 1 / 5 bis - central bankers '