human resources. in terms of gender equality, tokushima prefecture has one of the highest proportions of women working as business executives, in management positions, or on councils of local governments, suggesting that women are playing a prominent role in the region. looking back at the history of the prefecture's economy, the indigo and salt manufacturing industries flourished by taking advantage of the climate and nature. these industries have developed over time, and agriculture still flourishes in the areas where indigo was cultivated. the raw material processing technology used in salt production is one of the roots of the chemical industry, which has become a major industry of the prefecture's economy. thus, tokushima prefecture has a history of achieving sustainable development by reinventing itself to meet the changing needs of the times. it is my hope that its economy will continue to develop further by promoting initiatives that are ahead of their time. the bank, through its tokushima office and takamatsu branch, will continue to gather information and exchange views in order to contribute in any way possible to various efforts to revitalize the region. thank you very much for your attention. japan's economy and monetary policy speech at a meeting with local leaders in tokushima december 8, 2021 amamiya masayoshi deputy governor of the bank of japan introduction i. economic developments ii. price developments iii. financial conditions surrounding firms and the bank's conduct of monetary policy iv. current situation of and outlook for tokushima prefecture's economy chart 1 i. economic developments real gdp ann., q / q % chg. 20 / q4 + 11. 8 21 / q1 - 4. 1 q2 + 1. 5 q3 - 3. 0 570 s. a., ann., tril. yen cy 15 note : figures are based on the first preliminary estimates for the july – september quarter of 2021. source : cabinet office. chart 2 i. economic developments corporate sector exports and production corporate profits s. a., cy 2015 = 100 s. a., tril. yen 19 / q4 real exports industrial production cy 06 current profits cy 06 note : in the right - hand chart, figures are based on the financial statements statistics of corporations by industry, quarterly and exclude " finance and insurance. " figures from 2009 / q2 onward exclude pure holding companies. sources : ministry of finance ; ministry of economy, trade and industry ; bank of japan. chart 3 i. economic developments household sector confidence indicator ( economy watchers survey

which such an increase in spending will bring about a sales increase at consumption - related firms and wage increases for those working there, and thereby encourage a further increase in consumption. the third point is the effects of the government's economic stimulus package formulated last month. while the extent to which the package will push up the economy also depends on the supplementary budget and thus should be closely examined, there will likely be the synergy effects of monetary and fiscal policy mix. that is, the bank has pursued powerful monetary easing measures so that short - and long - term interest rates will be stable at low levels. in this situation, an expansion in fiscal spending is likely to have greater stimulus effects without leading to a rise in interest rates. it is therefore expected that the latest stimulus package will underpin the economy through the synergy effects. taking these points into account, it is projected as a baseline scenario that the recovery trend in the overall economy will gradually become evident through next year, as downward pressure stemming from supply - side constraints and covid - 19 wanes and the effects of the economic stimulus package materialize. risk factors however, as i mentioned at the outset, the outlook for japan's economy entails extremely high uncertainties. the following risk factors warrant attention. first, there remain uncertainties over whether services consumption will pick up steadily during the covid - 19 era. as explained, consumption of face - to - face services, such as eating and drinking as well as accommodations, has been picking up. that said, anecdotal information from firms suggests that vigilance against covid - 19 is sticky and thus people are reluctant to hold large year - end parties or go on a group trip. in some european countries, the number of confirmed cases has resurged despite progress with vaccinations, and cases of the new omicron variant, which is considered to be highly contagious, have been detected. given persistent risk aversion of households in japan, mainly of seniors, the extent to which consumption will recover continues to warrant attention. the second factor is a risk that the effects of supply - side constraints will be amplified or prolonged ( chart 4 ). as mentioned earlier, the issue of parts shortages caused by the spread of covid - 19 in southeast asia has started to dissipate. that said, there remains a fundamental problem that firms'supply capacity has not been able to keep up with the surge in demand, mainly for digital - related goods