the euro area is currently somewhat higher than expected as a result of the higher oil prices. the ecb warned that if the increase in oil prices is sustained, it would also have an impact on inflation rates during the rest of 2002. in the united kingdom, for 2001 as a whole, real gdp growth averaged 2, 2 per cent, the highest among the g - 7 countries. the united kingdom could, however, not avoid the global slowdown, which caused quarter - on - quarter growth in 2001 to decelerate registering zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2001. the economy, however, managed to recover marginally in the first quarter of 2002 with preliminary estimates showing that gdp increased by a seasonally adjusted and annualised rate of 0, 3 per cent. given the united kingdom ’ s significant exposure to economic and financial developments in the united states, improvements in the us economy are expected to positively impact on economic prospects in the united kingdom. this will support continuing growth in domestic demand resulting from the more expansionary monetary policy since the beginning of 2001 and a fiscal stimulus, largely in the form of planned rises in general government spending. growth for 2002 is expected to average 2 per cent. 5. japan japan continues to experience recession - the most severe of the past decade. however, the increasing economic activity in the united states and asian economies has led to an increase in japanese exports. this increase in exports, which accounts for about 10 per cent of the economy, recently prompted the bank of japan to raise its assessment of the economy for the second straight month - the first back - to - back upgrade in 19 months. the japanese central bank stated in its april monthly report that the japanese economy still continues to deteriorate as a whole, but concluded that the pace has moderated somewhat. 6. emerging economies recent economic attention on latin america has focused on the crisis in argentina and its implications for the rest of the region. argentina ’ s financial markets came under increasing pressure in 2001 because of the growing fear of a debt default and the end of the peso ’ s peg to the dollar. a 66 per cent decline in the peso since the government abandoned a decade - old peg to the dollar in early january has triggered steep price increases. in march, inflation was 4 per cent ( month - on - month ), the highest in 11 years. despite months of talks on an imf sponsored recovery package, both the argentinean government and the imf remain divided on a number of issues

. economic growth is not sustainable in an inflationary environment and is easier to achieve within an expansionary monetary policy framework, but becomes more challenging within a contractionary policy framework. however, it is important to realise that this is a challenge that we can successfully confront. it is within this context, a global one, that the executive management institute of south africa has to place itself. in order to train the managers and business leaders of tomorrow, you must grasp the complexities of the environment that confronts them. i commend emisa for its community work and i wish you well as you chart your future course.