pessimistic is the imf [ international monetary fund ] at 5. 0 percent. our own forecasts [ at the central bank ] are quite consistent with [ finance ] sec. ben's. we, [ the economy ], should be between 6. 0 percent and 7. 0 percent this year. the point is, the economy - even after adjusting for inflation, after removing the effects of inflation on values - we are actually seeing the economy grow by 7. 6 percent last year to 6. 0 percent this year. the importance of targeted assistance and non - monetary measures to support the hardest hit so, the real problem is how to assist the most vulnerable. of course, from a political standpoint, how to address the needs of the middle class because they are the most articulate among all the other voters. we support all the measures that the government is doing. my own reading is, please correct me if i am wrong, is that the imports are finally coming in. that is the case with sugar. but i do agree with congressman [ stella ] quimbo that imports are important short - term measures because, clearly, we cannot increase [ agricultural ] production quickly in three months. agriculture takes a long time. so, imports are necessary, but they will not totally defuse the price increases. in the case of pork, because of swine flu, people actually prefer fresh pork to frozen pork. so, similarly, the imports are, in many cases, not available very, very quickly in places that are far away from manila. one of the other reasons why inflation was higher than expected was because the economy was stronger than expected. in other words, demand was actually strong. you 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches can see in the chart, year - on - year spending in hotels and restaurants was almost 25 percent higher. that is some form of revenge spending [ as ] people have not gone out and eaten [ since the pandemic ]. you can see how crowded the restaurants are. vehicle sales are up [ by ] 31 percent. fortunately, there is some recovery in international tourism. it is still way below what it used to be. finally, you can see unemployment, by historical standards, is quite low. in short, the economy can take the policy rate increases. the real issue is how one can have targeted assistance to the most vulnerable. taking a long - term view on development external [ credit rating ] analysts, for instance, [

one useful approach would be for the fomc to provide the public with a quantitative, working definition of price stability. the definition of price stability would be expressed as a range of measured inflation, with the lower boundary of the range a safe distance from zero. what i have in mind here is not a formal inflation target but rather a tool for aiding communication. the main purpose of this quantification of price stability would be to provide some guidance to the public and to financial markets as they try to forecast fomc behavior. in a situation like the current one, with inflation presumably near the bottom of the acceptable range and trending down, and with considerable slack remaining in the real economy, the fed could make use of this quantitative guidepost to signal its expectation that rates will be kept low for a protracted period, and indeed that they would be reduced further if disinflation were not contained. if private - sector forecasts also called for disinflation, confirming the downward risk to price stability, then medium - term bond yields should accordingly be low, supporting the fed ’ s reflationary efforts. in principle, one could communicate a similar message, though perhaps less precisely, without a quantitative measure of price stability. what is missing from the purely qualitative communication approach, however, is an exit strategy. at some point in the future, if all goes well, inflation will stabilize, and interest rates will begin to rise. the task of communicating the timing of that switch to markets with a minimum of confusion and uncertainty is crucial and difficult. a quantitative measure of price stability provides one objective basis that bond market participants could use to help forecast the change in policy stance. for example, they would know that as disinflation risk recedes and inflation forecasts begin to cluster in the middle to upper portions of the price stability range, the fed is quite likely to react. and, indeed, the forecasts of bond market participants and the resulting rise in private yields will help to contain inflation, doing some of the fed ’ s work for it. in closing, for me the lesson of the may 6 statement was to underscore the vital importance of central bank communication. in a world in which inflation risks are no longer one - sided and short - term nominal interest rates are at historical lows, the success of monetary policy depends more on how well the central bank communicates its plans and objectives than on any other single factor. ideally, the fomc would