to be predictable and consistent in delivering low and stable inflation in the medium term. as the key risks in the monetary policy pursuit still emanate from the international environment, the nbs will continue to closely monitor and analyse movements in the international financial and commodity markets and assess their impact on economic developments in serbia. allow me to conclude by saying that our economic policy has made the economy more vital and capable of addressing the market challenges we had faced in the past and those that lie ahead. serbia is now a country where doing business and finding a job is easier and the living standard is rising on sustainable grounds. of course, further improvements are still possible, first and foremost by means of structural reforms which will sustain a further rise in investment, competitiveness, profitability and employment. this will enable us to preserve the achieved results and respond to future challenges. i will end my introductory address here and give the floor to my colleagues from the department for economic research and statistics to present a detailed analysis of the current developments and our latest macroeconomic projections.

. according to preliminary data of the serbian statistical office, gdp growth in the first quarter this year equalled 2. 3 % y - o - y. excluding the seasonal effect, quarterly gdp growth equalled 0. 9 %, meaning that economic activity has upheld the upward trajectory for 18 consecutive months. though growth in external demand slowed down as of mid - 2018, according to our estimate, the achieved gdp growth is attributable to domestic factors. a key contribution to growth came from fixed investments, which posted an s - a growth of 7. 4 % in the first quarter – namely, private investment by 8. 0 %, and government by 4. 7 %. serbia ’ s economy has become more attractive to investors mainly owing to the improved business climate and favourable financial conditions, while the implementation of infrastructure projects has also accelerated. in regard to this, we should note the increased profitability of the economy, which ended the previous year with a net profit of rsd 500 bn. this is an important source of investment and indicates that investment in our economy pays off. our growth forecast for this year has been retained at 3. 5 %, and we expect it to pick up to around 4 % in the coming years, with growth resting on firm grounds, primarily owing to the preserved macroeconomic stability. chart 7 contributions to y - o - y gdp grow th rate − expenditure side ( in pp ) chart 8 fixed investment ( s - a, in pp. ) - 3 - 2 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 6 - 12 2009 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 net exports government consumption and investment private sector investment household consumption gdp ( in % ) sources : sors and nbs calculation. * nbs estimate for q1 2019. т1 - 8 - 10 2019 * government investment private investment fixed investment ( in % ) sources : sors and nbs calculation * nbs estimate for q1 2019. growth sustainability is also confirmed by the greater integration of our economy in the global economic flows – both trade and capital, since fdi inflows are on the rise. although affected by the slack in external demand and steel quotas, the export of goods recorded a 7. 9 % y - o - y increase in q1 2019, owing to the expansion of supply on account of earlier investments and accelerated sale of the surplus of agricultural commodities carried over from 2018. on the other hand, the expansion of output and investment boosted the import of equipment and intermediate