samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
for all items excluding fresh food is likely to increase toward the end of this year due to rises in prices of such items as energy, food, and durable goods, and the average for fiscal 2022 is expected to exceed 2 percent, at 2. 3 percent. however, unless we assume that prices of commodities such as crude oil will continue rising in the future, it is projected from the beginning of 2023 that the positive contribution of the rise in energy prices to the cpi will wane and the pass - through of cost increases will weaken gradually. as a result, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi for all items excluding fresh food is expected to decelerate from fiscal 2022 to 1. 4 percent for fiscal 2023 and 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2024. in terms of inflation that also excludes energy, for which prices see significant short - term fluctuations, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi is likely to increase moderately in positive territory on the back of improvement in the output gap, rises in medium - to long - term inflation expectations, and in wage growth. that said, even in fiscal 2024, which is the end of the projection period, the rate of increase is expected to only be at around 1. 5 percent. in sum, achievement of the price stability target of 2 percent in a sustainable and stable manner is not yet envisaged at this point. iii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy basic thinking on monetary policy let me now talk about the bank's conduct of monetary policy. the bank conducts monetary policy with the aim of achieving the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner. achieving the price stability target does not mean that the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi temporarily reaches 2 percent due to an exogenous increase in import prices such as energy, but rather that the rate registers 2 percent on average over the business cycle. from this perspective, it is necessary to examine the sustainability of price increases by comprehensively assessing the outlook for prices, as well as the underlying output gap, medium - to long - term inflation expectations, and wage developments, in addition to various measures of core inflation, which exclude temporary fluctuations. what is important is to achieve a virtuous cycle where wages and prices rise simultaneously and people's living standards improve amid continued growth in the economy. in this regard, japan's economy is still on its way to recovery from the down

report on the economic governance framework. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches
##s, the proceeds would presumably be employed to redeem gse debt. in effect, a private investor whose holding of gse debt has been redeemed receives, in exchange, either the mortgage - backed security sold by the gse or other assets sold by those who acquire the mortgage - backed security. in either case, the grossing - up or its reversal does not affect the net demand for high - quality securities. 6 the concern of some observers that large sales of mbs will be difficult to absorb runs counter to the evidence that gse - backed mbs, being aaa - rated securities, already trade as part of the large worldwide market for high - quality corporate debt and u. s. treasury issues. gse sales of mbs, matched with redemptions of debt, will be readily absorbed in the vast market without a significant change in the relative interest rate spreads of such investments. at the most, the grossing - up and liquidation of mbs and the corresponding gse debt might conceivably affect the mbs - gse interest rate spread at the margin. moreover, unwinding mbs financed by gse debt does not affect the level of home mortgage debt outstanding or of mortgage interest rates. indeed, we have found little, if any, evidence that the spread of home - mortgage interest rates over comparable - maturity u. s. treasuries are affected at all by variations in the size of gse portfolios. 7 in fact, contrary to the expectations that mbs portfolio accumulation lowers home mortgage interest rates, the spreads apparently widened as the portfolios grew from 1995 to 2003. in any event, since the development of the mbs market, the determinants of interest rates that finance home purchase have exhibited little, if any, response to the size of gse portfolios. the past year provides yet more evidence of this independence, with gse portfolios not growing and mortgage spreads, as well as the spread between yields on gse debentures and treasury securities, declining further. despite the turmoil at fannie and freddie during the past two years, home mortgage markets have functioned well. indeed, as an indication that the yield on debt owed by gses is wholly a function of the yield's perceived status as government guaranteed, the credit default swaps of both fannie and freddie have barely budged as the disruption in the markets for gse equities has deepened. the mbs - gse or gse - treasury

on the size of the gse balance sheets, we put at risk our ability to preserve safe and sound financial markets in the united states, a key ingredient of support for housing. financial instability coupled with the higher interest rates it creates is the most formidable barrier to the growth, if not the level, of homeownership. huge, highly leveraged gses subject to significant interest rate risk are not conducive to the long - term financial stability that a nation of homeowners requires.
preserve their prosperity with patience, pragmatism, and persistence. dear angela, you were an exceptional leader in exceptional times. congratulations. 1 adenauer, k. ( 1946 ), die demokratie ist fur uns eine weltanschauung - aus einer grundsatzrede zum programm der cdu, 6 march 2 merkel, a. ( 2021 ), speech to mark the day of german unity, 3 october. 3 naim, m. ( 2022 ), the revenge of power – how autocrats are reinventing politics for the 21st century, st martin's press, new york. 4 roll, e. ( 2009 ), die kanzlerin – angela merkels weg zur macht, ullstein, berlin, p. 108. 5 weber, e. ( 2022 ), merkel – macht der freiheit, netflix. 6 merkel, a. ( 2005 ), government policy statement, 30 november. 5 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches

strengths – and something i could tell you also enjoyed. during g20 meetings, for example, you would get up and talk to other leaders around the table. you would listen, discuss and negotiate. you would walk over to the colleagues drafting the communique for the meeting, taking out your pen, crossing out sections and making sure that key sentences were included. i have never seen any other leader do this – and at many key moments it proved critical. thanks to your inclusive and consensus - driven style, you were instrumental in forging a compromise when greece's future in the euro area was on the line. we held a crisis 3 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches meeting during one weekend in july 2015. the meeting went on well into the early hours. many leaders had already left the room, but you stayed until a solution was found, together with me and a few others. i was there as managing director of the international monetary fund. we managed to find a way to keep greece inside the euro area, and you played a crucial role in getting us there. the consequences of greece exiting would have been much greater than any risks posed by another rescue package. it was the right decision, as we now know, even if some at the time were not convinced or had their doubts. your keen interest in understanding complex issues, often completely immersing yourself in the matter in question, helped you during those intense meetings. i remember one occasion when you pored over the imf's model assumptions about greece's debt sustainability. thankfully our calculations broadly survived your scrutiny, but you made sure to question and fully understand them. it was rare to see this kind of attention to detail from someone in your position. it impressed me. but it was no coincidence that you were always the best prepared person in the room. you were the best in class at school, and that work ethic never left you. yet knowing your brief inside out had another benefit for you : it meant that you didn't have to rely on others. you could take matters into your own hands – and deliver the outcomes that no one else could. the moral force your pragmatism, however, never drifted into opportunism. the clarity of your moral compass made sure of that. and this is the third attribute, angela, that stands out : your moral force. you served four terms as chancellor, a total of 16 years. everything you did during those 5, 860 days
the positive outcome of the stress tests, the major challenges are still there : for instance the drastic reduction of the non - performing loans and the ability to provide liquidity to the greek real economy ( new loans to businesses ). in view of the end of the current programme in august 2018 and a return to european normality, the greek people look into the future with optimism, which i also share, provided that there is no complacency, no slackening of effort, and authorities do not let up on reforms, especially in the public sector, cutting red tape, etc. the overwhelming majority in greece still want to be within the core of europe. this is our legacy as a nation that goes back to our history and our tradition. after all, the name of our continent europe comes, in the first place, from an ancient greek mythological figure, a beautiful young lady with whom zeus, the father of the twelve greek gods, fell in love, but since she was refusing his advances, he decided to transform himself into a bull to catch her and bring her to mount olympus, the mountain of gods in northern greece, where i come from! concluding remarks in closing, i understand that public sentiment in central and eastern european countries is not very strong right now in favour of joining the single currency and that euro area accession is seen by some as a byword for the loss of sovereignty. the crisis has certainly made the euro area look less attractive for future members. in my view, the issue is ultimately, on the one hand, for the eurozone to persist with completing the emu project and, on the other hand, for candidate countries to be at a par with the rest of the eurozone on all fronts ( sustainable convergence ). after all, cee member states have considerable discretion over the timing of their accession into the euro area. amid the uncertainty about the euro area ’ s architecture, a wait - and - see approach for final outcomes is perhaps the safe - bet policy, given that any decision to adopt the single currency, once made, is irreversible, since the costs of exit by far outweigh the benefits. thank you very much for your attention.

. eu ) ). 2 see stephen g. hall & george s. tavlas & yongli wang, 2022. " drivers and spillover effects of inflation : the united states, the euro area, and the united kingdom, " discussion papers 22 - 13, department of economics, university of birmingham ( https : / / ideas. repec. org / p / bir / birmec / 22 - 13. html ). 3 see bianchi, francesco and melosi, leonardo, inflation as a fiscal limit ( september 21, 2022 ). frb of chicago working paper no. 2022 - 37 ( https : / / papers. ssrn. com / sol3 / papers. cfm? abstract _ id = 4205158 ) 7 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches
the reader is personally affected by a story, the harder that becomes. as the chief diplomatic correspondent for europe at the new york times, you, mr erlanger, have the challenging task of bringing europe closer to a predominantly american readership. please allow me to say that, with your engaging as well as informative articles, you accomplish that task with panache. once again, please accept my sincere congratulations on being awarded the karl klasen journalism prize. and to you, the audience, thank you for your attention. 1 deutsche bundesbank ( 2017 ), the danger posed to the global economy by protectionist tendencies, monthly report, july, pp 77 – 91, and the literature cited there. 2 k klasen ( 1970 ), die verwirklichung der wirtschafts - und wahrungsunion in der ewg aus sicht der deutschen bundesbank, in europa - archiv, 13, p 453. 7 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches

can play a greater role in pulling the world economy out of the great recession and returning it to a path of sustainable growth. taking maximum advantage of positive growth spillovers would be the way forward. and this premise, together with the absence of a global jurisdiction for economic policy, is the basis of my argument for international cooperation to achieve a global solution. however, we should always bear in mind that the benefits of positive growth spillovers can only be reaped if negative financial spillovers are at the same time prevented. danke schoen. references committee on international economic policy and reform ( 2011 ), “ rethinking central banking ”, brookings institution, washington. cottarelli, carlo ( 2012 ), “ fiscal policy in advanced economies : fiscal adjustment, efficiency and growth ”, presentation at the milan catholic university, march 13. perotti, roberto ( 2011 ), “ the ‘ austerity myth ’ : gain without pain? ”, bis working papers, no. 362. reinhart, carmen m. and m. belen sbrancia ( 2011 ), “ the liquidation of government debt ”, nber working paper, no. 16893. bis central bankers ’ speeches
and that is very helpful for the euro area. let me close with one final remark. in 2015, lithuania took a major step to strengthen its ties with its european partners ( as yves mersch said ). faced with the russian war against ukraine, the european union has moved even closer together. i very much 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches hope that this horrible aggression will end soon. and that we can all concentrate our efforts on shaping a peaceful and prosperous future for the continent of europe. 1 bank of lithuania, lithuania will receive euro banknotes from the central bank of germany, press release, 21 august 2014. 2 european central bank, euro changeover successfully completed in lithuania, press release, 16 january 2015. 3 bank of lithuania, bank of lithuania receives a prestigious global award for financial market development, press release, 15 june 2023. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches

data gaps initiative ( dgi - 2 ) – first progress report, september 2016. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
70th anniversary today and the new m. p. was juha sipila, who forming a new government today. the agenda has developed but not fundamentally changed. we have three major tasks. 1. we need to restore cost competitiveness of our economy. this is the pre - condition to create growth and jobs. social partners. 2. we need to make structural reforms to promote growth and improve possibilities to create jobs. here the new government needs to move fast with decisions and their implementation. 3. we need to consolidate our public finances. we cannot move a growing debt burden to our children and grand - children. here we need a strong government and functioning relations between social partners. today i want to congratulate oras for its 70 - year history. i want to extend my congratulations to all in the company, the employees, the management, and the owners. the success has required major efforts for a long time from all of them. thank you! bis central bankers ’ speeches

the proper price signals don't reach the end - users and thereby impede an efficient choice of payment instrument. so if we want to speed up development in payment services, we need to increase competition in the market and reduce the disincentives. based on our past finnish experiences in major payment innovations, i predict that the implementation and penetration of mobile payments among the general public will take its time following the introduction of a general and user - friendly mobile payment solution. our payment habits are deeply rooted. merchants need time to adapt their systems. banks want to be assured that the business model of the new payment instrument is a sufficiently rewarding opportunity for them. here too we face the traditional chicken - and - egg situation. still, i am convinced that recent developments in ict in general and in mobile technology in particular have provided a solid platform for building a new generation of payment technology. my forecast is that the convenience and efficiency of mobile payments will have general appeal among advanced users of mobile phones.
- claude trichet, 21 i have spoken out in favour of the creation of a finance ministry for the euro area under the oversight of the european parliament. this ministry could be responsible for preventing economic and fiscal imbalances, managing sapir, a. ( ed. ), fragmented power : europe and the global economy, bruegel, 2007 ; and jamet, j. - f., “ the optimal assignment of prerogatives to different levels of government in the eu ”, journal of common market studies, 49, 2011, pp. 563 – 584. “ completing europe ’ s economic and monetary union ”, a report prepared by j. - c. juncker, in close cooperation with d. tusk, j. dijsselbloem, m. draghi and m. schulz, 22 june 2015. building a capital markets union, eurosystem contribution to the european commission ’ s green paper, 21 may 2015. rawls, j., a theory of justice, harvard university press, 1971. see also cœure, b., “ revisiting the european social contract ”, speech given at the european conference at harvard – europe 2. 0 taking the next step, cambridge, massachusetts, 2 march 2013. chopin, t., “ vers un veritable pouvoir executif europeen : de la gouvernance au gouvernement ”, question d ’ europe no 274, robert schuman foundation, 15 april 2013 ; and veron, n., “ the political redefinition of europe ”, opening remarks at the conference organised by the swedish financial markets committee ( fmk ) on “ the european parliament and the financial markets ”, stockholm, 8 june 2012. “ building europe, building institutions ”, speech by jean - claude trichet, president of the ecb, on receiving the charlemagne prize 2011 in aachen on 2 june 2011. bis central bankers ’ speeches crises in the euro area and managing the budgetary capacity envisaged by the five presidents ’ report, as well as representing euro area governments in international economic and financial institutions. b ) what to do in the short term none of what i have mentioned will be possible without the support of european citizens. what do they expect? that unemployment will fall and growth will strengthen. there is a temptation to leave it up to the low oil price and the ecb ’ s accommoda

” supervisor this is a far - from - ideal situation. these few words of caution have all the more weight and relevance as we have had a very successful first year of european supervision. the setting - up of the ssm has taken banking supervision in the euro area to a new level – not just institutionally but also in the goals we set for ourselves and the supervised banks. my heartfelt wish is that we continue to aim for those goals. let me close by extending a big thank you on behalf of the executive board of the ecb to all the panellists, speakers and organisers of the conference, who have contributed so much to the success of the ssm ’ s first anniversary. ladies and gentlemen, colleagues, i thank you for your interest in our first ecb forum on banking supervision. i hope that you all enjoyed the remarkable series of deep and thoughtful discussions on this first anniversary. i wish you all a safe trip home. bis central bankers ’ speeches
wish you all some fruitful but at the same time pleasant days here in tirana. i am sure that our representatives of bank of albania will present their main views in a transparent way and i look forward to the discussion that will be started by the panel members. i now give the floor to the chairman for starting the open forum.

ardian fullani : recent economic and financial developments in albania speech by mr ardian fullani, governor of the bank of albania, at the joint press conference of the imf mission with the ministry of finance and the bank of albania, tirana, 11 november 2008. * * * the regular visit of the imf ’ s eu1 european department mission is made in the context of the last review of the current 3 - year prgf – eff arrangement between the albanian authorities and the imf board of directors. this last review coincides with a sensitive outlook of the world economy, which is facing a highly intensive and uncommon global market correction. given this situation, present and future prospects still remain vague and uncertain. however, worth to note is that the albanian economy has exhibited admirable immunity to these developments. in this context, the prudent and systematic work of the bank of albania, both in terms of maintaining the macroeconomic balance at home and safeguarding the banking system ’ s financial stability, has provided an overwhelming contribution. over the last two years, the bank of albania has been an active actor in both directions, analyzing carefully all the risk factors and taking various measures to minimize their materialization in practice. in our work we have been guided by the philosophy that one cannot build authority in the market through the mechanical use of a set of instruments but through the market perception and trust in the policies pursued by the authorities. the conservative policy – the increase of the interest rate extended in a time period of 18 months – is the concrete application of this philosophy. in addition, measures have been taken in terms of amending and constantly improving the legal and regulatory package. the entire process of measures and decisions has aimed at ensuring the financial system ’ s efficiency and stability. the latest regulatory amendments, which have brought a new dimension to the banking business in relation to the customers, foreign currency lending, investments in parent banks and internal control, are of particular importance. the bank of albania will persistently make an assessment of the existing regulatory framework and aim at improving it, in order to address the present and potential risks. i believe the set of actions taken recently by the central bank have been a kind of intensive therapy which has contributed to the increase of the banking system ’ s immunity. with reference to the economic and financial situation at home, i would like to inform you that the bank of albania shares the same opinion with the imf and the ministry of finance regarding the current period as of end