ahead, the rate of growth can still be expected to accelerate in the world economy and in swedish export markets. developments in equity markets also indicate expectations of a continued strengthening of economic activity in the period ahead. the rise in equity prices around the world, which began in the spring last year, has continued. at the same time, long - term international interest rates have fallen recently. it is difficult to determine how much of this is due to lower optimism about growth in the coming years or if it perhaps is more indicative of lower expectations of inflation. looking ahead, there is reason for some concern regarding developments in long - term interest rates, partly against the background of the weak us public finances. upswing also evident in sweden, but the picture is not entirely clear with that, i am now ready to discuss the swedish economy. allow me to begin by noting that the swedish economic outlook last year changed in approximately the same way as internationally. during the first half of the year, the economic outlook became increasingly pessimistic. in sweden, it was mainly investment that was weaker than expected. the weak economic activity was also reflected in the riksbank ’ s forecasts of inflation. this in turn was a contributory factor in the riksbank ’ s decisions to cut the repo rate on three occasions for a total of one percentage point. during the latter part of the year, however, the outlook became somewhat less pessimistic. in sweden, the weak investment was countered by favourable growth in consumption, both private and public, and a rise in exports. the assessment at the end of the year was that growth had increased gradually in 2003 and would reach 1. 5 per cent. growth in 2004 and 2005 was forecast to be approximately 2. 5 % both years, which on the whole is somewhat faster than what the riksbank considers to be possible in the long term without giving rise to inflation. new swedish data support this scenario, but the picture is still not entirely unambiguous. the national accounts for the third quarter showed higher growth compared with previous quarters. household consumption also rose, as did exports. at the same time, business tendency data are indicating growing optimism among firms during the latter part of the autumn, while retail sales continue to grow at a historically high level. but growth in industrial production was relatively weak in october and november while there was a reduction in the number of new orders. moreover, new estimates of the public finances indicate that public consumption this year may

not improbable that some of the payments now made separately in rix will move to other platforms that enable instant payments. it is clear at any rate that the taxonomy used for payments ( large - value / retail, instant settlement / batch settlement and time - critical / not time - critical ) will become more blurred. the riksbank is standing at a crossroads here. should the riksbank continue to supply solely an infrastructure equivalent to rix that is primarily suitable for largevalue, time - critical payments during office hours on weekdays and leave the other settlement of payments between financial institutions to the private sector? or should the riksbank also supply an infrastructure that enables settlement in central bank money in seconds 24 / 365? or to put it a different way : should the riksbank's payment system be open all the time? do we need a settlement service 24 / 365? the answer is not entirely clear, but much indicates that the riksbank will find it more difficult to carry out its task of promoting a safe and efficient payment system in the future if we don't raise our level of ambition regarding the services now offered to rix participants. i see two main reasons for this. first, settlement in central bank money is the safest means of settling payments. private settlement platforms can, with the aid of the central bank, imitate part of the security offered by settlement in central bank money. in sweden, this is done by the institutions that are participants in bir allocating money in a special client funds account in rix that acts as collateral for the payments settled in bir. this hybrid system has enabled instant payments in sweden without the riksbank ’ s payment system having to be rebuilt from scratch. as long as the volumes are relatively small, this type of system is fully adequate, but financial stability will become increasingly dependent on the reliability of these hybrid systems if the volumes increase substantially. sooner or later one therefore reaches a point where it is difficult to see the value of a hybrid system that tries to copy the safety offered by central bank money if the central bank could just as well offer this settlement itself. the riksbank would in addition be able to offer participants better and more cost - efficient liquidity management than is possible in a private system. second, the payment system is one of the economy's critical infrastructures. the institution that is responsible for the settlement of payments between financial institutions gains a considerable influence over the payment system as a