is solid in countries like france, finland and ireland. germany has a large internationally exposed industrial sector, which is feeling the effects of the slowdown in growth in the us and asia. in a survey, growth forecasts for germany have been revised downwards this year from 3 per cent a few months ago to a good 2 per cent. economic growth prospects for sweden and the uk are also weaker than a few months ago. however, the easing of monetary and fiscal policy in many countries should contribute to a pick - up in growth and reduce the risk of a pronounced international downturn. the norwegian economy will be particularly hard hit by an international downturn if this translates into a sharp fall in oil prices and other commodity prices that are important for norwegian exports. this would lead to lower export revenues and slower growth. employment would also be affected. an international downturn would also lead to lower prices for imported goods and services and thereby reduce domestic inflation. if other nordic countries are negatively affected, this will have an impact on the supply of labour in norway since the nordic labour market has become increasingly integrated. continued pressures in the norwegian economy consensus forecasts. available labour resources are limited in the norwegian economy. the labour force participation rate is high. vacancies are numerous, particularly in the health sector, schools and the construction industry due to a shortage of teachers, nurses, dentists and construction workers. extensive use of disability and sickness benefits is limiting the supply of labour. reforms such as contractual pension schemes, which were stepped up through the 1990s, cash allowances for families with small children and an increased number of vacation days this year and next also contribute to reducing the effective labour supply. the country as a whole is experiencing labour shortages, but the differences between regions and industries are considerable. in eastern norway, where service industries are very important, unemployment has declined the last year. from 1998 to 2000 alone, employment in private services rose by 26 000 nationwide. in southern and western norway, unemployment rose last year, largely reflecting the decline in manufacturing employment since the beginning of 1999. unemployment has declined again recently. employment in the public sector has also increased markedly in recent years. over the last 30 years, the public sector and private services have laid claim to an increasing share of labour resources in norway, a trend that will probably continue. the tight labour market reflects a high activity level in the norwegian economy. the mainland economy is experiencing an upturn, but growth is low. growth in private consumption has been moderate the

global crisis provides further support to this notion. sweden ’ s growth rate rebounded post - crisis, but should be roughly in line with its average over the previous decade as the global economy recovers in coming years. in south africa ’ s case, the floating currency supported economic growth in the wake of the argentine crisis of 2001, and in the current crisis the economy suffered a quite modest decline in the economy of 1. 7 % in 2009. other factors also played an important role in supporting the economy in this period, including counter - cyclical fiscal policy and sustained high commodity prices. real currency depreciation is, however, only one part of what it takes for economies to weather adverse shocks or to counter domestic economic developments that weaken competitiveness. achieving a new sustainable economic growth rate after a shock or internal adversity requires economic adjustment – changes in rates of return to different economic activities and shifts in labour and capital between those activities. adjustment should be easier to achieve when an economy is reasonably diversified. for south africa, large commodity, manufacturing, financial and services sectors helps to keep the economy going even when one or more of them runs into trouble. this economic diversification is also critical to thinking about where to get the financial means to assist the economic adjustment process. and here an important idea comes from norway, with which south africa shares a commonality in a strong natural resource base. the idea is to shepherd natural resource earnings and use it for long term, inter - generational, development. there are various ways this use of resource rents can be channelled into higher welfare, through direct transfers of income to households, stronger communitarian claims on private sector firms involved in extraction, or through more highly developed public services. but achieving anything via these channels depends on some ground rules being set out and protected in policy, regulation and / or law. one ground rule is the approach taken by the fiscal authorities to set the taxation of the resource rent at a level commensurate with sustainable long - term extraction and the life of the endowment. another ground rule is how to manage the pay out of the revenues accruing from the resource. the benefit to citizens needs to spread over generations, rather than consumed up - front. this implies that public borrowing needs to be carefully managed to ensure that future resource revenues are not committed in advance to debt repayment. a focus on long - run infrastructure development by the public finance authorities could help to ensure that additional borrowing pays back the debt without reducing the