indonesian economy would be more stable, balanced, and growth at reasonable rate in the range of 5, 5 – 5, 9 %. many of the supporting factors remain in place, including stronger export and improving business confidence which should provide an enabling environment for growth. bis central bankers ’ speeches 26. bank credit is projected to grow at 15 – 17 % range which is reliable with the effort to bring the current account to a healthier. that being said, we expect the current account deficit to continue shrinking below 3, 0 %. indeed, latest trade figure already pointed to an upbeat - sign as shown by the surplus of trade balance in february and march 2014. 27. inflation will remain under control and within its target corridor of 4. 5 % ±1 % in 2014. with many uncertainties ahead, it is wise to keep the inflation rate low to ensure that the economy remains competitive and to minimize pockets of instability, whether through excessive growth of bank credits or asset price bubbles. closing distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen 28. i would like to end my talk this morning by stressing that despite many roles that bank indonesia plays in ensuring economic and financial stability, bank indonesia ’ s policy alone cannot ensure sustainable economic growth. 29. a sustainable growth requires a structural reform for having a reliable infrastructure, – in terms of physical, financial, institutions, and human capital – as an enabler for indonesia to grow and break into the high - income level bracket. 30. if infrastructure development is unable to keep up with expanding economy and growing demand of the population, the economic growth is constantly constrained to achieve its full potential. encouragingly, in indonesia, progress has been observed in many projects although room for improvement remains. 31. i believe the next administration remain placing emphasize on the structural reform, while bank indonesia will continue to ensure a stable financial and economic environment, so that businesses can continue to thrive and individuals can enjoy better standards of living on a sustainable basis. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

gleaned from the current crisis, we need to consider some more basic questions ; questions that will help guide us when positioning indonesia during this era of globalization. for instance, what is the best equilibrium for our economy : between the domestic market and export market, between the financial sector and real sector, between the outward orientation and inward orientation of our financial sector, particularly our banks, between relying on domestic financing or foreign financing. such questions require a fair, thorough and in - depth thought process. it is imperative to answer these questions if we want to develop a more resilient national economy to future turbulence. prospects and challenges in 2009 distinguished guests, allow me to further explain the horizon we face in 2009. one issue that can be considered undeniable is that all countries around the world face an economic downturn. indonesia is no exception. for us, the effects of the crisis began to be felt during the last quarter of 2008. the economic slowdown will be more obvious in 2009, particularly during the first semester. estimations we ran at end of 2008 projected that our domestic economy in 2009 will grow in the range of 4 % - 5 %. certainly not too bad when compared with the projections of many other countries. however, observing the current global trend, the downside risk will increase. in line with efforts to protect economic growth, the key here is how to maximize domestic market potential to bolster domestic economic activities. the foremost element of this policy is to expedite the implementation of a fiscal incentive package and the 2009 national budget. well - controlled inflation as well as government, political party and public expenditure for the upcoming general election, will also help underpin public purchasing power. in addition, certain policies that must be intensified include measures to improve the business climate and reduced domestic business costs. the implementation of such policy should not require any additional funding, however, more focused and determined actions to detangle the knots are necessary. we hope that during this year of the general election, such policies can be continued and even intensified. meanwhile, along with tumbling commodity and fuel prices as well as solid rice production, the interest rate in 2009 is expected to decline, in the range of 5. 0 - 7. 0 %. if current developments persist, however, the lower limit of this range is expected. questions often arise on the prospect of our balance of payments this upcoming year. based on detailed calculations performed at the end of last year, we estimate that the current account will run