samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
in preparing these remarks. 1 financial stability report - 2024 - bank of canada 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

gauge the strength of the economy as it approaches its capacity to produce and to reduce the amount of monetary stimulus in place in a timely and measured manner. what do we mean by those terms? " timely " relates to the fact that there is always a lag between our policy actions and their effect on the economy. we must be timely because our actions take a year to 18 months to have their full effect on output, and 18 months to 2 years to have their full effect on inflation. " measured " relates to the judgments that we will make as we approach full capacity. if the economic data going forward tell us that we are taking up excess capacity more quickly than expected, we would have to reduce monetary stimulus more quickly. but if the data suggest that the return to full capacity is going more slowly than we thought, we would then need to move more slowly. there are still important risks and uncertainties in the outlook. some are working on the upside and others on the downside. given the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the economy, output growth could be even stronger than projected. but it is also possible that some of the recent strength in spending on consumer durables may have been borrowed from the future, so that the growth of household expenditures may be weaker than expected. at the same time, there is still considerable uncertainty about the timing and strength of the pickup in business investment in north america, mainly because of the continued weakness in profits. moreover, recent developments in the middle east could have implications for crude oil prices and the global economy. the canadian and u. s. situations on 16 april, canada became the first g - 7 country to raise interest rates following the most recent economic slowdown. central banks should always tailor their monetary policies to their own circumstances. and while canada faces many of the same risks as the united states, there are some differences in our situations that are worth noting. although the first - quarter national accounts data are not yet out in canada, we expect that final demand has made up a larger share of canada's growth in the first quarter, while the contribution to growth from inventories constituted a smaller share than in the united states. it is always difficult to measure excess capacity with precision. however, it is clear that the canadian economy is now nearer its level of potential than we expected it to be just a few months ago. the key issue facing both the u. s. and canadian economies is business investment — when it will resume and how strong that
. regulation and innovation must go hand in hand. regulation is the responsibility of the reserve bank. innovation should be the driving force of idrbt and all the banks present here. together, we can make our financial sector resilient and make it an aid to the growth of our economy and welfare of our people. 62. once again, hearty congratulations to all the award winners today and compliments to idrbt for its efforts to recognize excellence in innovation by banks. bis central bankers ’ speeches

weekly economic - related columns in the press, the educational classes, the public lectures, the professional assistance to the public and other similar. these are normal activities of the academia and the educational institutions in a developed world, since their primary purpose is to create public goods for the society. social return or the social impact have now become an ever - increasingly important objective for profit - seeking financial institutions, while in our economy education is only limited to the strict and traditional classroom teaching. analyses and comments almost always approach the criticism, and very rarely – not to say hardly ever – they approach explaining and interpreting a certain economic phenomenon. against this backdrop, responsible finance goes beyond the financial system ’ s boundaries ; it stretches to all the players that can and it is their responsibility to guarantee it in all possible ways. i invite all the interested players to co - operate in order to guarantee financial responsibility, providing an active contribution according to their role in economy.
, tiff and i would be pleased to take your questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches

$ 250 billion, will decline roughly in tandem. 2 qt would complement increases in the policy rate, putting upward pressure on interest rates at maturities where households and businesses typically borrow. but let me underline that our primary tool is the policy interest rate, and adjustments to the pace and timing of the removal of monetary stimulus will focus on our policy rate. this reflects several considerations. changing the policy rate to speed or slow the economy has a long history, and interest rate changes are easier to calibrate and communicate. our policy rate is a nimble tool, and we have used it to deliver low, stable and predictable inflation since the bank of canada began inflation targeting in 1991. changing the policy rate will therefore 1 see p. beaudry, “ our quantitative easing operations : looking under the hood ” ( speech delivered virtually to the greater moncton chamber of commerce, the fredericton chamber of commerce and the saint john region chamber of commerce, fredericton, moncton, saint john, december 10, 2020 ). 2 the level of settlement balances was near zero before the pandemic. for a variety of reasons, including investor preferences shifting toward safe and liquid assets, changes to the payment system in canada, and regulatory changes that encourage the greater use of central bank deposits, the appropriate level of settlement balances will likely be higher than it was before the pandemic, although still much lower than it is now. when the bank approaches that lower level, it can be expected to once again start traditional modest bond purchases to accommodate its normal course of operations. see t. macklem, “ economic progress report : monetary policy for the recovery ( speech delivered virtually to federation des chambres de commerce du quebec, montreal, september 9, 2021 ). - 9remain our most important monetary policy tool. and as we said in january, canadians should expect a rising path for interest rates. conclusion let me conclude. these are anxious times. the russian invasion of ukraine is deeply troubling and has injected new uncertainty. this comes atop continued uncertainty about the evolution of covid - 19, even as the world makes its way out of the omicron variant. supply chain disruptions also continue, distorting the price and availability of many goods. all of these issues featured prominently in our deliberations leading to yesterday ’ s decision, and we will need to manage through them. but slack in the economy is absorbed, there is solid momentum, and inflation is too high
to grow over time at a non - inflationary and therefore sustainable pace. the longer economic growth is sustained, the more benefits we will see in terms of improved incomes and employment. [UNK]

i will focus on today. in particular, regulations and market practices regarding capital for trading book activities, for risk - management systems within institutions, 9 and for margin requirements can – especially if they are too focused on short - run volatility – lead to procyclicality in asset prices and a general amplification of the procyclicality of the financial system as a whole. let me explain. the value - at - risk ( var ) methodology has come to dominate not only riskmanagement systems within institutions, but also the setting of capital requirements on their trading books by the basel committee on banking supervision, 10 and the way that institutions think about setting margin requirements in their securities - financing operations or the initial margin for over - the - counter derivatives. the var methodology essentially uses recent historical data to estimate the losses on the trading book ( typically over a one - to sixty - day period ) that would come from a negative shock whose size would be exceeded only ( say ) an estimated one per cent of the time. problems can arise if most participants in a given market use the same short historical period to calculate a simple var, which is then used to carry out risk management within institutions for a given allocation of economic capital, to calculate regulatory capital requirements, and to set margin requirements for counterparties. when that happens, the dynamics of asset prices could be most unfortunate in response to a significant shock. consider first the case of an improvement in the fundamentals of a given asset. this would lead to an increase in the market price of that asset and, typically, to a reduction in the volatility of its price as well. this, in turn, would lead to a lower var for the existing portfolio. as a result, the capital requirements would fall, a bigger trading book could be held for a given allocation of economic capital, and margin requirements could be lowered for counterparties. those counterparties, in turn, would participate more actively in markets. 11 market liquidity would increase as more trading occurred in a growing range of assets. perceived risk would fall as asset prices rose and volatility continued to fall. a " virtuous circle " for prices and volatility would result, not unlike what was seen in the 2003 - 06 period. as a result, however, assets may become overvalued as risks become underpriced. next, consider what would happen if there was a downward shock to asset prices, resulting from a change in fundamental
much of its goals but there is still a long journey ahead as most international currencies have evolved over several decades. the impact of the chinese economy on asia has been significant with many countries now counting china as their largest trading partner, and in some cases, among the largest foreign investors. reflective of the underlying fundamental economic changes, the rise of the renminbi, although gradual, is inevitable with important implications not only to asia but to the rest of the world. undoubtedly, the renminbi is more important to asia than anywhere else. given this, asia including malaysia must be ready for this transition of the increased internationalisation of the renminbi and its potential role with asia ’ s integration path and thus contributing towards further unlocking the potential of the region. bis central bankers ’ speeches

of the main determinants of financial stability, which is their mandate. this is a shared conviction. at the one planet summit in paris in december 2017, the banque de france, with the support of other central banks and supervisors, launched the network for greening the financial system ( ngfs ), which now comprises some 30 central banks, supervisors and international organisations, including four asian members, and will certainly attract more in the coming years. * * * let me now conclude by quoting nassim nicholas taleb, the famous author of the black swan. he once wrote that uncertainties can be like the wind which “ extinguishes a candle and energises fire ”, and added the following : “ you want to use them, not hide from them. you want to be the fire and wish for the wind ”. my wish is that the ongoing uncertainties will become the wind that deepens our bilateral and multilateral cooperation. on that hopeful note, i wish you a very happy new year and for the time being an inspiring and fruitful conference. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
common good and reason continue to be the main driving forces guiding these institutions. thank you very much for your attention, and my congratulations to all this year ’ s cunef graduates 7 / 7

, through the recapitalisation and consolidation processes undertaken, the clean - up of balance sheets and the reform of the savings banks. upcoming challenges nevertheless, however positive this return to normal – which has now been evidenced by the tests conducted in the run - up to the ssm – has been, especially following the turmoil experienced, there is no respite, as there are major challenges ahead for spain ’ s banks, as there are for the banks of our european partners. in particular, banks will have to learn to live with the considerable increase in regulatory demands. these will arise especially from the imminent entry into force of the liquidity and provisioning requirements included in the basel iii accord, and from the foreseeable introduction of additional measures, such as those that will demand separation in some cases between the investment banking business ( proprietary trading, market - making, etc. ) and the traditional banking business, or that will require banks to have liabilities available that may be converted into equity in the event of resolution. at the same time, greater restrictions can be expected on the admittance of internal asset risk assessment models when they represent savings in regulatory capital. in turn, within the framework of the ssm, work can be expected to begin to try to harmonise the regulatory differences that persist ( for example, in the calendars for application of the capital deductions established in basel iii ) as well as supervisory practices ( for example, relating to the approval of internal risk assessment models ). insofar as greater harmonisation can be expected to be conducive to stricter supervisory practices, in each area the new supervisory framework will generally tend to raise the bar for all european banks. hence, in order to adapt to the new regulatory and supervisory environment, many banks will need to make further efforts to strengthen their own funds. moreover, this will have to be done against a complicated macroeconomic backdrop in europe, where economic conditions bis central bankers ’ speeches are still prone to vulnerability and interest rates remain very low, acting as a brake on improvements in the quality of loanable assets, growth in lending and recovery in interest margins. that said, at the banco de espana we are convinced that spain ’ s banks will successfully adapt to all these challenges, adjusting where necessary their business strategies, improving where possible their efficiency levels and harnessing any opportunities the market may offer to continue to bolster their balance sheets in keeping with the new demands. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’
treatment as possible to such issues as new types of transactions accompanying progress in information technology ( i. e., fund transactions using customers ’ computer terminals ).

mitigate the negative feedback loop from weakening economic conditions to the functioning of the financial sector. lower policy rates would also have the effect of shoring up business and consumer confidence. the latest inflation forecasts continue to show subdued price pressures, with headline inflation expected to settle at around the middle of the target range for 2009 and at the lower bound of the target range for 2010. on balance, downside pressures on prices predominate due mainly to expectations of a marked deceleration in global economic activity, which is expected to continue to dampen imported inflation and inflation expectations, and weaker domestic demand conditions. in addition to the reduction in its policy rates, the bsp also moved to ensure that there is sufficient liquidity in the system. the bsp : 1. enhanced the existing peso repurchase agreement ( repo ) facilities through relaxed valuation and a broader list of acceptable collaterals ; 2. established a us dollar repo facility to augment dollar liquidity in the foreign exchange market and ensure the ready availability of credit for imports and other legitimate funding requirements ; 3. reduced the regular reserve requirement by two percentage points on 14 november 2008 ; 4. liberalized rediscounting guidelines which include increasing the rediscounting budget to p40 billion in 14 november 2008 and to p60 billion on 02 march 2009, aligning rediscounting rate with the rrp rate, easing the npl ratio requirement and increasing loan value of all eligible papers ; and 5. launched the credit surety fund ( csf ) program which provides guarantee to small cooperatives to ensure continued access to financing of small businesses. the bsp has also acted swiftly to bolster confidence in the financial system, through timely communication and greater transparency. moreover, to safeguard the confidence in the banking system, the monetary board approved on 30 october 2008 the guidelines allowing financial institutions to reclassify financial assets from categories measured at fair value to those measured at amortized cost. financial institutions were allowed to reclassify their investments in debt and equity securities from their held for trading or available for sale categories to the held to maturity or the unquoted debt securities classified as loans. the bsp also allowed banks not to deduct unrealized mark - to - market losses in computing for the 100 percent asset cover for fcdus, effective until 30 september 2009 ). this reduced the need for banks to source dollars from the foreign exchange market. what lies ahead for the philippine economy? in
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, professor carl walsh of the university of california, santa cruz, the new honorary adviser to imes, will share his views on monetary policy frameworks under a low inflation and interest rate environment from an academic perspective. as the author of the textbook monetary theory and policy, which is a must - read for central bank economists, and of various other significant contributions to the literature, he is one of the most influential academics in this field. next, the paper presentations will focus on the following four topics : first, optimal monetary policy taking international capital inflows into account ; second, the reversal interest rate ; third, the tinbergen rule for financial stability and price stability ; and fourth, the impact of prolonged low nominal interest rates on banking stability. the final and concluding session will be the policy panel discussion, moderated by see powell ( 2018a ) for the current view of the federal reserve board. see rajan ( 2015 ) for a discussion of the spillover. professor athanasios orphanides of the massachusetts institute of technology, another honorary adviser to imes. as panelists, we will have mr. christian hawkesby, assistant governor of the reserve bank of new zealand ; mr. klaus masuch, principal adviser to the director general economics of the european central bank ; and mr. masazumi wakatabe, deputy governor of the bank of japan. i hope that the theoretical and practical discussions in this conference will deepen our understanding of central bank design under a continued low inflation and interest rate environment. thank you for your attention. references borio, claudio e. v., and philip william lowe, “ asset prices, financial and monetary stability : exploring the nexus, ” bis working paper no. 114, bank for international settlements, 2002. heider, florian, farzad saidi, and glenn schepens, “ life below zero : bank lending under negative policy rates, ” ecb working paper series no. 2173, european central bank, 2018. maddaloni, angela, and jose - luis peydro, “ bank risk - taking, securitization, supervision, and low interest rates : evidence from the euro - area and the u. s. lending standards, ” review of financial studies, 24 ( 6 ), 2011, pp. 2121 – 2165. powell, jerome h., “ monetary policy influences on global financial conditions and international capital flows, ” speech at “ challenges for monetary policy and the g
e - kyc database for the sharing of customers'transactional and nontransactional data. the government of jamaica is also in the process of developing a national identification system ( nids ) which will provide a quicker method of identity assurance and verification thus making it easier for banks to onboard customers. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches

business investment has resulted from weak demand and uncertainty about the pace of the recovery. tfp is equally important and has generally accounted for most of the variation in productivity over time, but is less well understood and so more difficult to forecast. the second question – what will happen with productivity going forward – is the subject of intense debate. the range of forecasts is wide, and the historical record provides ample ground for humility. this summer, many will be carrying robert gordon ’ s massive the rise and fall of american growth to the beach ( or perhaps to the lake, here in the midwest ), which argues the pessimistic view. 7 for balance, maybe bring along brynjolfsson and mcafee ’ s the second machine age, which take a more optimistic view and is a great deal shorter. 8 one factor that may contribute to low productivity growth is the notable decline in recent decades in measures of the dynamism of our economy. entrepreneurs start new firms ; most of them fail, but a few of them succeed, grow very rapidly, and account for significant amounts of job formation. older firms shrink or go out of business if they fail to keep up with innovation and advances in productivity. workers change jobs and move around the country ( or the world ) as their careers evolve and as companies grow and shrink. these processes can be painful and messy for both workers and firms, but they are essential to the allocation of resources to their highest, most productive uses. the high levels of innovation and fluidity of our economy have long been thought to be among the principal reasons for our high and rising living standards. bis central bankers ’ speeches the slowdown in essentially all of these processes is seen in declining rates of creation and destruction of both firms and jobs. start - ups : start - ups are a key driver of productivity growth. although it may feel that we are living in an age of disruption, the birthrate of startups has actually been in decline since the 1970s. 9 new firms can be loosely grouped into two categories : those started by “ lifestyle entrepreneurs ” who want to be their own boss, but who have little prospect or desire for high growth ; and those founded by transformational entrepreneurs who start businesses that aspire to grow dramatically and change their industry. before 2000, the decline in new firm entry was mainly in the first sort ; since 2000, it is also found among the so - called transformational firms. while the drop in the formation of lifestyle - type firms