– 2025 the critical infrastructure destructions deepened the decline in ukraine's gdp in q4 2022 ( to 35 % yoy ). trading businesses and the services sector adapted to power outages rather quickly. this, coupled with stronger performance in q3, led to an upward revision of estimated decline in real gdp in 2022 to 30. 3 %. the nbu expects growth in real gdp to be weak in 2023, at 0. 3 %. the deterioration of the forecast compared to the october estimates was primarily caused by consequences of the energy sector destructions and the revision of the main assumption of the duration of security risks. the forecast assumes in 2023 ukraine will manage to avoid further significant destruction of its energy infrastructure, while businesses and authorities will take effective measures to neutralize the consequences of the damage inflicted earlier. the economy will grow in 2024 – 2025, driven by a decline in security risks, along with a resumption of proper operation of ports, an increase in harvests, a gradual recovery in production, an improvement in logistics, and a pick up in domestic demand, including thanks to the return of displaced persons. the loose fiscal policy will also play an important role. all of the above will push up ukraine's real gdp by 4. 1 % in 2024, and in 2025 economic growth will accelerate to 6. 4 %. international aid, coupled with cooperation with the imf, will finance ukraine's substantial budget deficit, and maintain international reserves at a sufficient level. in 2022, ukraine received over usd 32 billion in international assistance, of which over usd 14 billion was in the form of grants. this enabled the country to finance a larger portion of the consolidated budget deficit, and to increase international reserves, to usd 28. 5 billion by the end of the year. currently, reserves are sufficient to safeguard the stability of the fx market. in view of the already announced international aid and progress made in negotiations with the imf, overall official financing in 2023 could exceed usd 38 billion. this will enable ukraine to refrain from the monetary financing of the budget deficit in 2023, and to maintain international reserves at a sufficient level even in the face of longer - lasting high security risks. international reserves are expected to hit about usd 27 billion by the end of 2023, and will continue to rise. the key assumption of the forecast is that security risks will start to decline significantly from early 2024. a prolonged war and further destruction

domestic financial markets such as widening current account deficit, growth slowdown, growing fiscal deficit and sticky inflation, to name just a few. the uncertainty and volatility associated with the financial markets are expected to continue at least for the foreseeable future, as the “ new normal ”. managing the market risks in this context is a major challenge for the corporates and the banks alike. 3 ) market risk is the most dynamic among the major risks, positions and hence the risks can change much more frequently in quick time in comparison to other risks. the financial stability reports of the reserve bank have presented the results of coordinated stress tests of scheduled commercial banks in respect of, inter alia, market risk. these tests conducted on balance sheet and off balance sheet positions show that banks are indeed vulnerable to sharp movements in market prices. market risk is a risk practitioners delight at least from the perspective of quantifying them while it is not so straightforward for credit risk and would border on the difficult in respect of operational risk. of course, there are major issues in respect of statistical methodologies in measuring market risk and var based measures have been derided for underestimating risks. the issue is about the lack of having acceptable alternatives vis - a - vis accepting the imperfections and supplementing with other measures. i will further elaborate later in my speech. bis central bankers ’ speeches 4 ) with a view to adopting the basel committee on banking supervision ( bcbs ) framework on capital adequacy which takes into account the elements of credit risk in various types of assets in the balance sheet as well as off - balance sheet business and also to strengthen the capital base of banks, reserve bank of india decided in april 1992 to introduce a risk asset ratio system for banks ( including foreign banks ) in india as a capital adequacy measure. reserve bank had issued guidelines to banks in june 2004 on maintenance of capital charge for market risks on the lines of “ amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risks ” issued by the bcbs in 1996. the market risk positions subject to capital charge requirement are : ( i ) the risks pertaining to interest rate related instruments and equities in the trading book ; and ( ii ) foreign exchange risk ( including open position in precious metals ) throughout the bank ( both banking and trading books ). with the introduction of cds, calculation of capital charge has been specified for banks using cds as a protection buyer or seller. 5 ) a major action as part of basel iii framework