has durably depressed demand and therefore prices, through the phillips curve ; while the slope of the phillips curve seems to have decreased in recent decades, it is still positive. the phillips curve remains well alive : in the bad news of “ missing inflation ”, this is the good news for monetary policy. the second factor is the strong decrease of the price of oil after 2014 that lowered the inflation rate both directly, through the energy component of consumption prices, and indirectly. it is estimated that these two factors have led to a 1 pp decrease in the annual inflation rate. unconventional monetary policy was successful in mitigating these disinflationary effects. absent this page 6 sur 9 policy, in - house and ecb computations show that annual inflation would have been around 0. 3pp lower between 2014 and 2019 ( on average per year ). after the onset of the pandemic, our monetary policy measures have also stabilized and then reversed the fall in inflation expectations. according to estimates from the ecb, all the measures taken since the beginning of the pandemic should contribute cumulatively around 1pp to the annual inflation rate over 2020 - 2022iv. inflation expectations have picked up and long - term market based inflation expectations are currently above their pre - covid levels ( marketbased inflation expectations 5y / 5y are close to 1. 6 % today ). b. beyond covid, the ecb has a powerful “ quartet of tools ” to keep its monetary policy as accommodative for as long as necessary. euro area hicp inflation increased to 1. 6 % in april 2021, from - 0. 3 % in december 2020, while core inflation remained subdued at 0. 7 % in april and 0. 2 % at the end of last year. however, this rebound is primarily due to transitory factors and base effects, which are expected to fade out of annual inflation rates early next year. underlying price pressures are expected to increase somewhat page 7 sur 9 this year, owing to short - term supply constraints and the recovery in domestic demand, although they remain subdued overall, in part reflecting low wage pressures. this assessment is broadly reflected in the baseline scenario of last march ecb staff projections for the euro area. it foresees annual inflation at 1. 4 % in 2023. there is today in the euro area no risk of lasting return of inflation. we will continue pepp net asset purchases “ until at least the end of march 202

in the future ; the importance of internal anchors and the study and research of external ones, and ; the need for establishing capacities ; are included in the research work ’ s agenda of the bank of albania. it is a great pleasure that we already have the possibility to cooperate with a remarkable partner as oxford university, a distinguished institution for the high - level research in political and economic sciences. for this collaboration, i hope and i believe that many issues i discussed above would have an answer, partial or a complete one. the one thing i strongly desire is the involvement of as many domestic and regional researchers. i would like to guarantee all the interested persons that we are open in this direction. on the other hand, i am confident that the collaboration we made official today, shall provide a sensitive contribution towards the education and establishment of professional capacities at national level. please allow me to close my speech returning once more to the argument of professional technicians. i still think that we need to educate our technicians ; furthermore, we should make them independent financially and politically ; and afterwards, we should educate them again. on the other hand, the building of capacities is not an “ individual ” issue ; it is an institutions ’ issue ; in fact it is a process independent from human resources. this because capacities should be based on “ processes ” and not on people, for long - living. the good anchors are not used only from institutions which relate policies with them. they are instruments in the hand of public, as strong arguments to encourage government ’ s agencies towards the compilation and implementation of long term sustainable polices. i believe that the european values may play decisive role in this direction, by strengthening and supporting the establishment of respected institutions, where the criticism occurs independently from the political processes and targets. that is the reason we have chosen the collaboration with the oxford university.