against that risk, in the form of a 25 - basis - point reduction in the policy interest rate. our interest rate cut occurred in the context of widespread easing in financial conditions around the globe. no fewer than 25 central banks eased their monetary policies in the early months of 2015. all of this monetary policy easing led to lower rates across the entire yield curve. what was behind this easing? many central banks were adding stimulus in response to persistent economic slack and below - target inflation. this easing, coupled with the positive implications of lower energy prices for world growth, should help the global economy pick up through the year. the bank expects global economic growth to strengthen and average about 3 1 / 2 per cent over the 2015 – 17 period. here in canada we saw that some of the effects of lower oil prices, such as the lower household spending i mentioned earlier, were clearly being felt in late 2014 and early 2015. our updated forecast in the april mpr suggests that the canadian economy saw no growth in the first quarter. while the impact of the oil price shock is happening faster than initially expected, it does not appear to be larger than we anticipated in january. bis central bankers ’ speeches outside of the energy sector, other areas of the economy appear to be doing well. the segments of non - energy exports that we expected to lead the recovery are doing so, and we expect this trend to be buttressed by stronger u. s. growth and the lower canadian dollar. the results of our business outlook survey suggest that capacity constraints are beginning to emerge for exporters, which is promising for new investment. and, although we still have material slack in our labour market, the market ’ s fundamentals have begun to improve. even so, companies remain cautious about new investment and hiring intentions. weighing these various forces acting on the economy, we anticipate a partial rebound in growth in the second quarter, and a move to above - trend growth thereafter, for annual growth of 1. 9 per cent this year. this projected growth profile gets us back on track to absorb our excess capacity around the end of 2016, at which time inflation will settle sustainably at 2 per cent. we see the risks around this projection as roughly balanced, but they will be reassessed continuously as new data become available. the main risk to our outlook is the size and duration of the negative impact of the oil shock, weighed against the positive forces that are building in the non - energy sector. our outlook is for the

gabriel makhlouf : publication of the financial stability review 2024 : 2 opening remarks by mr gabriel makhlouf, governor of the central bank of ireland, on the publication of the financial stability review 2024 : 2, dublin, 4 december 2024. * * * welcome to the central bank for the publication of our second financial stability review of 2024. since the last review in june, we have seen a turn in the global interest rate cycle, with many central banks being able to start reducing interest rates. this change of stance largely reflects progress in reducing inflation, and increased confidence that inflation will reach its target levels in a sustainable manner in many countries. the fact that this level of disinflation has been achieved without significant instability speaks to the continued resilience of the global financial system. however, while inflationary risks may have receded, risks to the growth outlook have come to the fore. economic growth has been stable, but some forward - looking indicators of activity have weakened, particularly in europe, and there are diverging forecasts across regions. the key risks centre around uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions, which raise the prospect of lower trade and gdp growth. a protectionist and fragmented world has negative implications for economic activity domestically and internationally, as well as for the resilience of households, firms and the financial sector. and with debt - to - gdp levels in many countries increasing recently, weak growth raises concerns over the ability of governments to support the economy in the event of a shock. financial markets have experienced periods of volatility since the last review, albeit these have been short - lived. this highlights underlying fragility in market sentiment, and the potential for market disruption if expectations change quickly or if there are further escalations in the geopolitical environment. compressed risk pricing in corporate debt markets and stretched equity valuations in some sectors leaves markets open to a swift repricing. as we have been warning for a number of years now, high levels of leverage in certain parts of the non - bank sector, and increasing interconnectedness between nonbanks and global banks, could amplify any shock to financial markets. turning to commercial real estate ( cre ), global and irish markets continue to adjust, and prices are showing some signs of stabilisation. however, there is still uncertainty over the full scale of the downturn in these markets. and in ireland, vacancy rates in the dublin office market remain high and