next year. it may be lower than that in view of the uncertainties stemming from international political tensions and the rise in oil prices, although this appears to have run its course. in the united states output is expected to grow by 3 to 4 per cent, in line with its potential ; in asia growth should be between 6 and 7 per cent, and in japan, between 2 and 2. 5 per cent. the rapid expansion in world trade is expected to continue, although not as fast as this year. the euro - area economy will continue to grow in the last part of the year and in 2005. in view of recent trends, the expansion of the italian economy appears uncertain. industrial production has not yet shown any sign of recovery. preliminary estimates indicate that in october the level was no higher than at the end of 2003. gross domestic product rose by 0. 5 per cent in the first quarter and 0. 3 per cent in the second ; the increase is expected to remain about the same in the third quarter. for the year as a whole the estimated increase is 1. 2 per cent, which is well below the average for the other european countries. household consumption is increasing in line with gdp. the sharp upturn in world trade concerns italy ’ s exports as well ; if the recovery observed in the second quarter continues, they may increase by as much as 5 per cent in volume in 2004. after falling sharply in 2003, investment is showing signs of recovery. according to a survey conducted by the bank of italy ’ s branches between 17 september and 7 october on 4, 157 firms, including 3, 094 in industry excluding construction and 1, 063 providing non - financial services, capital spending in 2004 will be only slightly below the amount initially planned ; the recovery in investment is expected to continue in 2005, both in the service sector and in industry. in the first nine months of the year, the majority of firms saw their turnover increase in nominal terms with respect to the year - earlier period ; during the third quarter orders showed some improvement with respect to june ; a large percentage of firms in industry and services expect demand to pick up further in the next six months. in view of the favourable performance of international trade, it is expected that output will be sustained by exports. poor competitiveness on the domestic market will entail a sharp rise in imports ; gdp growth will be faster than this year ; however, on the basis of current trends, it will amount to less than 2 per cent

will be calibrated in the future, closer to the issuance date of a digital euro, to reflect prevailing economic conditions. while this initiative is advancing quickly, a long road still lies ahead before people contemplate paying with digital euro. in october 2023, the governing council of the european central bank launched a digital euro preparation phase, which we will use to ( i ) finalise our design and analyses, ( ii ) continue testing functionalities, including by presenting them to potential users, and ( iii ) select providers to help develop the architecture. we will also continue to dialogue with market participants, merchants and consumers as we strive to build a digital euro that matches their expectations. let me stress that the decision to issue a digital euro has not yet been taken. such a decision must be taken collectively, following a democratic debate involving the european parliament and member states. that debate began last summer with the presentation of a proposal for a regulation by the commission and will continue alongside the work being done by the eurosystem. conclusion as you can see, central banks are firmly resolved to support innovation, not only by helping to establish an appropriate regulatory framework, but also by innovating in their own right. thank you for your attention. i would be delighted to answer any questions. 7 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches