partners will, among other things, contribute to the growth in international reserves to about usd 35 billion as of the end of this year. this will strengthen the nbu's capability to further maintain exchange rate sustainability and gradually ease fx restrictions. as before, the key assumption of the forecast is that high security risks will persist until early 2024. the war continues. the key risk to this forecast is that the war lasts longer and is fiercer than anticipated. they could have a significant adverse effect on economic activity, while also worsening inflation and exchange rate expectations. this will pose additional challenges to the country's macrofinancial sustainability. the war is also generating other risks. they include : the emergence of additional budgetary needs and substantial quasi - fiscal deficits in the energy sector difficulties with, or the halt in, the operation of the " grain corridor " and greater problems arising from the limitations imposed on imports of ukrainian food by some european countries further damage inflicted on energy infrastructure, which could again cause substantial power shortages a slower decline in global inflation than expected. conversely, the rapid implementation of ukraine's recovery project, together with european integration reforms, could significantly accelerate the pace of economic growth. the arrival of substantial financing for recovery could also provide ukraine with greater opportunities for easing fx restrictions. taking into account the risks outlined above, high uncertainty, and a significant amount of expected budget expenditures, maintaining exchange rate sustainability amid a pursuit of currency liberalization plans will require the nbu to continue to take a monetary policy approach that makes hryvnia - denominated savings highly attractive. with this in mind, the nbu board decided to keep the key policy rate at 25 %. keeping the key policy rate at 25 %, introducing additional instruments for preventing household savings from being eroded away by inflation, coupled with measures to increase competition among the banks for time deposits, contributed to greater exchange rate sustainability. these same instruments boosted demand for hryvnia instruments, while cutting demand for fx. at the same time, exchange rate sustainability is primarily being ensured by tight currency restrictions. their effectiveness wanes over time, while their restrictive effect on business activity grows in intensity. it is therefore becoming increasingly desirable to liberalize fx restrictions in the foreseeable future. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches to this end, the nbu is making policy efforts to establish appropriate preconditions for an easing of administrative controls. with uncertainty still being high and the risks of current account balances

yakiv smolii : financial inclusion forum - opening speech speech by mr yakiv smolii, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at the financial inclusion forum, kyiv, 12 june 2019. * * * dear ladies and gentlemen, participants of the second international financial inclusion forum. today, the slogan leaving no one behind unites us all. why this particular slogan, you may ask. first, as a un member country, ukraine shares and supports the global sustainable development goals. we apply the principle leaving no one behind. second, if we explain the meaning of the term “ financial inclusion ” in one word, this word would be accessibility. technical accessibility and price accessibility. at present, over one third of people all over the world still have no access to financial services. our mutual goal is to reduce the share of ukrainians in this huge number. i will not be mistaken if i confidently say that all present here are aware of the fact – financial inclusion offers broader opportunities for people. access to loans advances business and access to insurance creates a safety cushion. for the least secured social groups, an access to high quality financial services means safety today and social mobility tomorrow. numerous studies, particularly by such respected international institutions as the world bank and the international monetary fund, have proved a strong connection between financial inclusion and financial stability. at the macroeconomic level this translates into the country ’ s capacity to tackle crises. at a personal level, it gives ukrainians a chance to be prepared for rapid changes and unexpected developments that have permeated the life of our country for the past two decades. ladies and gentlemen, it should be noted that financial inclusion is not only about an increase in the number of consumers of financial services, or their sales, so to say. it is about social responsibility – transparency and clarity of products to their consumers. protection of consumers is important because it is the prerequisite for the safe use of loans. it is impossible for anybody to benefit from the full potential of financial services without financial literacy. this is where the nbu sees great opportunities for everybody gathered here. anyone has a purpose and anyone can play a role : commercial sector can develop new technologies and offer progressive solutions 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches nongovernmental organizations can ensure control and enhance communal capacity in an informal way while we at the public sector will continue creating conditions for the increased well - being of ukrainians. what are our plans? first. the nbu will improve the