samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
group report. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

mojmir hampl : outlook for global interest rates speech by mr mojmir hampl, vice governor of the czech national bank, at the official monetary and financial institutions forum ( omfif ) roundtable for public sector asset managers, london, 30 january 2018. * * * my contribution to today ’ s discussion on global interest rates will focus on the equilibrium real rate of interest. the equilibrium rate, which determines the development of interest rates in the long run, has decreased around the world by about 4 percentage points since the 1980s, as documented, among others, by the influential studies of holston, laubach, and williams and rachel and smith ( 2017 ). very recently, it seems to me, the process has started to reverse, but any progress toward a higher rate is likely to be slow. equilibrium values do not change abruptly. seven principal reasons have been identified for the decrease in this parameter observed in the past : the first is a decrease in growth expectations caused primarily by the great recession and the ensuing process of de - leveraging. gloomy prospects depress demand for capital and, in consequence, also the equilibrium interest rate. currently, however, notions of secular stagnation are losing steam, and growth expectations have slowly been recovering to pre - crisis levels. it is perhaps useful to remind ourselves that secular stagnation has been declared many times in the past – by malthus, after the great depression, and during the 1970s and 1980s – only to be refuted by continued growth. second, we have seen a steady decrease in dependency ratios, which has stimulated excess savings and therefore lowered the equilibrium rate. this trend, too, will reverse soon, as the increase in the share of the elderly population will outpace all other population groups. dependency ratios around the world will rise, which will buoy the equilibrium rate. third, inequality has risen in past decades, again adding to the increase in the mean savings rate. but note that we are now observing a decrease in ( at least ) wage inequality in many countries, including the czech republic. inequality, broadly defined, has decreased in most countries around the world since the crisis ( world bank, 2016 ). i believe that the discussion on inequality tends to be overly pessimistic. fourth, more and more developing countries have been getting fully integrated into the world economy, releasing their supply of savings into global markets and giving rise to the notion of a “ savings glut ”. i see no reversal here
francois groepe : recent economic and regulatory developments keynote address by mr francois groepe, deputy governor of the south african reserve bank, at the webber wentzel leadership network, johannesburg, 4 march 2015. * * * introduction good morning, ladies and gentlemen. thank you for inviting me to the webber wentzel leadership network, which is aimed at reinforcing your firm ’ s dedication to the future of south africa and underscores the role that young professionals should play in the advancement of our country ’ s democracy. i look forward to sharing my views on the recent international and domestic economic developments, as well as changes to the financial regulatory architecture. international economic developments we have entered the seventh year since the start of the great recession, and despite the significant elapse of time, the global recovery can be characterised as uneven. global economic growth decelerated significantly to an annualised rate of 3, 4 per cent in the final quarter of 2014 compared to the 4, 6 per cent recorded in the third quarter. this slowdown can largely be attributed to the slower growth recorded in both advanced economies, as well as a number of the large emerging market economies, such as china and india. the us economy, after expanding strongly by 5, 0 per cent in the third quarter of 2014, slowed to 2, 2 per cent in the fourth quarter. overall economic activity expanded by a solid 2, 4 per cent during 2014, which represented a notable improvement in economic conditions following the contraction of 2, 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2014. although the us unemployment rate ticked up marginally to 5, 7 per cent, this could be attributed to the slight improvement of 0, 2 percentage points in the labour force participation rate to 62, 9 per cent and which can broadly be interpreted as an improvement in labour market conditions. although headline cpi inflation has declined to – 0, 1 percentage points and personal consumption expenditure inflation stands at 0, 2 percentage points ( year - on - year ), it is likely that monetary policymakers will look through the oil price shock. core personal consumption expenditure inflation is at 1, 3 per cent and services inflation is at 2, 1 per cent, very close to the us fed ’ s 2 per cent goal. wage growth ticked up to 2, 2 per cent in january. it is anticipated that the federal open market committee will commence with the process of interest - rate normalisation during the course of this year, despite its use of the term “ patient ”

the regulatory reform process under way is probably the most significant overhaul of the financial regulatory architecture since the 1970s. despite its ambitious scale, the bank is preparing itself to embrace this expanded mandate in its quest to promote, maintain, and ensure a more stable financial system. that will hopefully allow all of us to sleep more soundly at night, knowing that our savings and investments are safer. bis central bankers ’ speeches
implement reforms alone. we bis central bankers ’ speeches need your partnership. we need your support. for it is only if we work together that any structural reform agenda would be truly transformative towards durable and inclusive economic growth. thank you and a pleasant day to all. bis central bankers ’ speeches

caleb m fundanga : framework of cooperation between the bank of zambia and the university of zambia opening remarks by mr caleb m fundanga, governor of the bank of zambia, at the signing ceremony of the memorandum of understanding between the bank of zambia and the university of zambia, lusaka, 30 june 2010. * * * the vice chancellor, university of zambia – prof. stephen simukanga the deputy governor – administration and university council chairperson – dr tukiya kankasa - mabula distinguished professors and lecturers from unza colleagues from the bank members of the press distinguished ladies and gentlemen ; it gives me great delight, on behalf of the bank of zambia, to welcome you all to this important signing ceremony of the memorandum of understanding between the bank of zambia and the university of zambia. the mou that we are about to sign today provides a framework for the support to the economics department and research activities in the department. ladies and gentlemen ; the bank of zambia continues to view the university of zambia and the copperbelt university as strategic partners in the economic development of zambia. it is for this reason that the bank has for several years now been involved in the support of various capacity building programmes at the two tertiary learning institutions. this support has taken various forms, including the following : salary supplementation to fifteen ( 15 ) academic staff in the department of economics at unza and nineteen ( 19 ) academic staff in the school of business at the copperbelt university ( cbu ) ; full sponsorship of five undergraduate students at third and fourth year level at cbu and five students at masters degree level at unza ; financial support in the acquisition of books and periodicals ; purchase of equipment such as computers and computer software. the bank of zambia acknowledges the various efforts being made by the university to improve its infrastructure and the delivery of quality university education and research. we are also mindful of the various funding constraints faced by the university as it expands its programmes to meet the ever increasing demand for its services. the bank is therefore, proud to respond to the university ’ s call for partnership with industry and other stakeholders in order to realise its noble objectives that cannot presently be fully funded from public resources and students fees. in this regard, the bank of zambia has seen it fit to not only extend this support, but to also streamline and enhance it in order to better align this support with strategic objectives of both the bank and the university. ladies and gentlemen ; as you are aware, the bank of zambia has been providing
to these global factors in our decision - making. at the reserve bank of australia we are very conscious of these global forces. we still feel that, thanks to our floating exchange rate, we have a high degree of monetary autonomy from a cyclical perspective. so from that viewpoint, the textbook still applies. at the same time, though, we feel that we have no autonomy when it comes to shifts in the global equilibrium real interest rate. if we were to maintain our interest rate in the face of a decline in the global rate, our exchange rate would appreciate, likely moving us away from our goals for inflation and unemployment. so we have to move too and this has been a consideration in our recent thinking on interest rates. the second response to the uncertainty about the shifting stars is to accept a degree of flexibility in inflation outcomes. given the global forces at work, short - term inflation control looks harder than it once was and 2 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches there is more uncertainty about what is required to deliver this control. when inflation targeting was first introduced, a great deal of emphasis was placed on central banks achieving their targets as precisely as they could. they wanted to do this to demonstrate their commitment to inflation control and to build their credibility as inflation fighters. but times have now moved on and this opens up the possibility of a refined approach. in my view, the uncertainty about the stars increases the already strong case for a flexible inflation target. and in some cases, there is nothing wrong in using that flexibility. from a welfare perspective, what is important is that we deliver low and stable inflation. while people in financial markets pay very close attention to whether inflation is 1. 6 per cent or 2. 0 per cent or 2. 2 per cent, most people in the communities that we serve don ’ t see much difference in these numbers. and most of the time, nor should they ; they all constitute low inflation. in fact, many people in our communities are incredulous that we would be too worried over whether inflation was 1. 6 per cent, 2. 0 per cent or 2. 2 per cent. they ask, ‘ haven ’ t you got something more important to worry about?'in australia, we have long had a flexible inflation target. our target is to achieve an average rate of inflation, over time, of between 2 and 3 per cent. we also see the inflation objective as nested within the broader objective of welfare maximisation. so the question the reserve

small open economy with a floating exchange rate and flexible inflation target. thank you. 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches
sarb remains committed to fulfilling its primary mandate of maintaining price stability in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth. in addition, we will pursue this objective ‘ without fear, favour or prejudice ’, as the constitution calls upon us to do so. thank you. page 7 of 7

its capacity to handle future economic and financial crises continues to be debated. page 3 of 7 south africa and the south african reserve bank ( sarb ) have continued to be active participants in international efforts to promote constructive dialogue as we seek global solutions to global challenges. as part of this work, we interact with many of the countries that you represent, be it as a member of the imf, the g20 2, brics 3, the southern african development community ( sadc ), the association of african central banks, and various standard - setting bodies and regulatory forums. the initiatives that the sarb has been involved in since we last met include the following : • there have been ongoing discussions about providing adequate resources to ensure that the imf can fulfil its role at the centre of the gfsn. • enhancing the effectiveness of the brics contingency reserve arrangement ( cra ) has also remained top of the agenda. the cra is a self - managed contingent reserves arrangement instituted to forestall short - term balance of payments pressures, provide mutual support, and further strengthen financial stability. • another priority has been strengthening the macroeconomic research capability to support the cra. • in the region, the sadc real time gross settlement system 4 has continued to gain momentum. between july 2013 and february 2019, more than 1 million transactions were settled on the platform, representing a value of r5. 5 trillion. • in addition, we have successfully collaborated with the european central bank, the bank of england and the bundesbank to develop certain skills of sarb staff members and to share and transfer knowledge in areas related to the sarb ’ s domestic and regional work. 2 group of twenty ( finance ministers and central bank governors ) 3 brazil, russia, india, china, south africa 4 previously known as the sadc integrated regional electronic settlement system ( siress ) page 4 of 7 the independence of central banks and the south african reserve bank ’ s role in the south african economy another topic that has been prominent over the past two years or so, and which seems to be gaining momentum, relates to central bank independence. in the words of kenneth rogoff, ‘ with the global rise of populism and autocracy, central bank independence is under threat ’. 5 this applies to many countries, developing and advanced, including south africa. south africa ’ s disappointing economic performance over the past 10 years has contributed to growing calls for the expansion of the mandate of the
arjuna mahendran : the latest financial crisis and sri lanka speech by mr arjuna mahendran, governor of the central bank of sri lanka, at the international research conference, colombo, 7 december 2015. * * * professor yi fu lin, dr. harsha de silva, distinguished delegates, ladies and gentlemen. welcome to this 8th research conference by the central bank of sri lanka. i must congratulate dr. nandalal weerasinghe and his colleagues who have developed this tradition which in no small way has established the central bank of sri lanka on the international research map as a meeting place for the profound minds of several leading academic and banking institutions. this conference itself is no small feat to have organized given that we have participants from several parts of the world in europe and asia including several areas that we have very strong relationship with as a country, and i think this is a great testimony to the continuing tradition that we have evolved in the central bank in terms of creating another center of excellence in sri lanka. in my opening remarks i thought i would perhaps take a leaf from professor lin ’ s commentary just now, and perhaps adapt sri lanka ’ s situation in terms of the structuralism or the lack of it that professor lin discussed. now when you look at the total economy, we have in the last five years gone through a fairly challenging period. as professor lin said we had the great recession of 2008 and its immediate aftermath what you found was that three strands of relatively new economic activism manifested themselves. in the first instance you saw a huge pump - priming effort by the people ’ s republic of china, which in its wake created perhaps the strongest commodity price boom that we have seen in recent history. that i think was a key take away from that period and china to some extent prevented the world from falling into a depression by stimulating its economy, and as professor lin has now elaborated to us, it falls in line with his perception that in times of recession developing countries are well - advised to go ahead and really stimulate domestic infrastructure construction etc. to take on the slack caused by international events. secondly we saw the major central banks of the world, that includes the united states, the europe, the united kingdom, japan and switzerland, creating money on an unparallel basis which for my calculations to date add up to about 8 trillion dollars worth of new money created in the last 5 to 6 years. that is significant. that ’ s the second strand that emanated

relatively high after the financial crisis. diagram 10. the riksbank ’ s indicator for risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system deviation from mean value - 1 - 2 systemic riskindicator non - financial corporate sector banking sector property market husehold sector external environment note. a higher value means greater risks and vulnerabilities. for all series included, see d. krygier and p. van santen ( 2020 ), “ a new indicator of risks and vulnerabilities in the swedish financial system ”, staff memo, sveriges riksbank. source : the riksbank. 16
, i agree that one needs to put the money where the mouth is. the benefits of the euro can only be reaped to the full if its dynamics are acknowledged. in this respect, the euro is a catalyst for more growth and employment, while it is a challenge for european policy makers to shape the right climate. in a way, the swiss also face this challenge - the more, now that the eu is on the brink of a sizeable enlargement. following winston churchill´s address here half a century ago, the time might come when sensitive questions on sovereignty and neutrality no longer tilt the balance against playing an active role in europe. in fact, an historic breaking point might have been reached with the recent, public majority support for membership of the united nations. should switzerland ever decide to take part in european integration, i am convinced that you will embrace the euro as warmly as the dutch did on 1 january.

tool in furthering the cause of a level playing field between countries and across institutions. ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude. looking back in history, we are a far cry now from where we were fifty years ago, when our predecessors introduced formal banking supervision in the netherlands. looking forward into the future, i am pretty sure that our successors will not be celebrating the centenary of the act on the supervision of credit systems, or even the centenary of insurance supervision 20 years from now. we will have entered a cross sectoral world long before then! and as to the topic they will be discussing, that could well depend on the turning we take on the crossroads that we are at now. thank you for your attention. i wish you all an interesting and entertaining conference.
randall s kroszner : remarks on “ liquidity and monetary policy ” remarks by mr randall s kroszner, member of the board of governors of the us federal reserve system, to the u. s. monetary policy forum, washington, dc, 9 march 2007. * * * i ’ m pleased to be here today to participate in this discussion about liquidity and monetary policy. apparently many others are having a similar discussion – a quick search of lexisnexis turned up 2, 795 separate articles in the past six months alone that mentioned the word “ liquidity ” in the context of its abundance in financial markets. the use of the term liquidity in these articles spans a wide variety of meanings – perhaps 2, 795 of them! rather than grapple with the definition of the rather slippery concept of liquidity in my short remarks here, i will focus on aspects of global financial markets that many analysts associate with liquidity and that are particularly relevant for monetary policy – namely, the relatively low level of long - term interest rates in both real and nominal terms and the resulting relatively flat slope of yield curves around the world. 1 i want to emphasize that, given the openness of capital markets, explanations of these phenomena should have an international component. i will argue that the flatness of the term structure reflects both the global balance of saving and investment, through its effect on real interest rates, and currency competition, through its effect on expected inflation and inflation risk. i should note at the outset that the views i express here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues in the federal reserve system. of course, flat and even inverted yield curves in advanced economies are nothing new. we know that the short end of the yield curve is dominated by monetary policy and cyclical factors. to abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks would be expected to no longer be important. 2 such forward rates reflect not only market expectations of future short - term interest rates but also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation. the short - term forward rate ten years ahead estimated from the yield curve for u. s. treasury coupon securities has ranged between 4 - 3 / 4 percent and 5 - 3 / 4 percent over the past year, nearly

https : / / press. princeton. edu / titles / 11240. html. - 13 while transparency and fairness are pillars of due process, i appreciate that there are other approaches worth considering on this matter. with this growing field of law and macroeconomics, i hope to see and implement many interdisciplinary solutions on the path forward.