in the first quarter. consumers also remained optimistic about the prospects for the economy as a whole, although they were still somewhat reluctant to commit to the purchase of durable goods. current developments in enhancing the strength of the financial regulatory environment include the publication of the companies amendment bill, with the purpose of improving the administration and effectiveness of the companies act ; the south african reserve bank amendment act to enhance the bank ’ s governance framework and to uphold its public interest role ; and the proposed draft banks amendment bill, taking into account new international best practices and standards as issued by the basel committee on bank supervision, and to align the provisions of the existing banks act with the new companies act. in addition to international efforts to strengthen the overall robustness of the regulatory environment, some countries have responded by reforming national regulatory systems. these reforms include the extension of central banks ’ powers with regard to supervision, market conduct and consumer protection ; the provision of more appropriate structures and policy instruments to assess and mitigate “ systemic risks ” ; the need to address the “ too - bigto - fail ” moral hazard problems associated with systemically important financial institutions ; and the need to close the regulatory gaps that were prevalent in the build - up to the financial crisis. although some countries are proceeding with regulatory changes, a degree of international convergence around a common international framework is needed. i have briefly highlighted the key issues raised in the financial stability review. more detailed analyses are available in the publication itself, and will be highlighted by the authors ’ presentations. i trust that you will find these interesting, stimulating and relevant to the current environment and invite you to provide comment as part of the important process of ongoing debate on financial stability. thank you.

to 1, 4 per cent in 2018. the uk growth forecast for 2017 was revised up by 0, 4 per cent in the latest weo update, to 1, 5 per cent. by all accounts, the deflation fears which once gripped the advanced world, apart from japan, seem to be abating. this is partly due to the increase in oil prices following the agreement among opec11 members and several other major producers to limit supply. emerging markets are set to accelerate from an estimated growth of 4, 1 per cent in 2016 to 4, 8 per cent in 2018. as the imf points out, this projection largely reflects a gradual normalization of conditions in a number of large economies that are currently experiencing macroeconomic strains. china is expected to grow by 6, 5 per cent in 2017, as a policy bias of easy fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy is expected to remain in place. however, the rapid expansion of credit, combined with insufficient progress in addressing corporate debt, raises the risk of a sharper slowdown or a disruptive adjustment. india is forecast to grow by 7, 2 per cent in 2017, although this forecast was trimmed somewhat due to the government ’ s decision to demonetise almost 90 per cent of the currency in circulation. this move induced a temporary negative consumption shock owing to cash shortages and payment disruptions. both brazil and russia are expected to return to positive growth in 2017. so while the global economy is expected to turn the corner this year, there are a number of risks that warrant attention. these include the possible shift towards inward - looking policies, the continued threat of a potentially severe slowdown in china, greater protectionism, a sharper - than - expected tightening in global financial organization of the petroleum exporting countries conditions ( as monetary policy in advanced economies is expected to be less accommodative going forward ), and increased geopolitical tensions related to the rise of populism ; and brexit, amongst others. as much as a fiscal stimulus from advanced economies should be positive, the change to a less accommodative monetary policy stance in advanced economies, in particular the us, combined with a stronger us dollar, can have adverse consequences for emerging markets, including accelerating capital outflows and putting the rebound in emerging market economies in jeopardy. however, having said this, it is also true that emerging markets are more resilient than before as macroeconomic fundamentals have improved considerably and vu