marzunisham omar : opening address - 25th apg typologies workshop 2024 opening address by mr marzunisham omar, deputy governor of the central bank of malaysia ( bank negara malaysia ), at the 25th apg typologies workshop 2024, kuala lumpur, 11 november 2024. * * * selamat datang and selamat pagi. this means welcome and good morning in the malay language. it is a great honour to welcome all of you to the 25th apg typologies workshop. to our foreign guests, welcome to kuala lumpur and welcome to bank negara malaysia. hosting this for the fourth time, i have always found this workshop beneficial to stay ahead of evolving trends in money laundering, terrorism financing and proliferation financing ( ml / tf / pf ). with the new round of mutual evaluations ( me ) on the horizon, workshops such as this have become even more important, enabling us to come together to discuss and learn from each other on emerging financial crime typologies. ladies and gentlemen, all of us share a common vision to preserve the integrity of our financial system. financial crimes are like an endemic that could ravage a country. one, it evolves quickly, requiring adaptive strategies to monitor and respond to the symptoms. two, it spreads quickly, and needs to be detected earlier and stopped, or it will create havoc. three, it requires a precise and comprehensive approach to effectively combat it. today, i will offer three characteristics of a robust approach to combating financial crimes, namely : 1. " a " - - adapting our strategies ; 2. " p " - - partnering across all stakeholders ; and 3. " g " - - growing our capabilities ; or, in short, apg. before i elaborate, allow me to briefly comment regarding the abuse of legal persons and cyber - enabled fraud. recent high - profile corruption and ml scandals, such as those exposed by the panama and pandora papers, have shed light on the sophisticated misuse of corporate structures. criminals exploit these complex setups to conceal true ownership, thus evading detection and oversight. meanwhile, the digitalisation trend has also heightened the effect of cyber - enabled fraud. the global anti - scam alliance reported that at least 25 % of the global population has been affected by fraud, that is one in four people, with global losses from scams 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches accounting for 1.

this, medium - term nominal interest rates will be lower. in addition, rational forwardlooking agents recognise that this will generate above - target inflation in the future, which lowers expected real interest rates over the whole period, further stimulating demand and inflation from today. this works perfectly in the textbook. yet even theoreticians, and practitioners alike, including our governing council, soon realised that turning theory into practice raised additional issues. let me discuss three. 1. the time horizon of forward guidance in theory, a small commitment reaching into the distant future is enough – through the power of rational expectations on all the expected real interest rates – to have a powerful impact today. this stretches credibility in two senses : first is it a realistic description of the way the world and expectations work? even michael woodford has been working on models of limited planning horizon that mitigate its power. the second way in which time stretches credibility is whether long - dated commitments are believable. 2. defining dates or states it was recognised long ago that so - called “ open ended ” ( or “ delphic ” ) forward guidance was not 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches very effective and there was a shift towards more conditional “ odyssean ” guidance, which is “ calendar - based ” and / or “ state - contingent ”. but “ calendar - based ” or “ state - contingent ” forward guidance pose other challenges which are quite evident in the current policy debate. “ calendarbased ” is very clear and easy for markets to understand ( “ i ’ ll meet you at 8pm ” v “ i ’ ll meet you half an hour after i leave home ” ). but it ’ s the commitment that is the most hostage to fortune because large shocks can occur in the interim. “ state - contingent ” is less risky in this respect because it adjusts according to evolutions in the economy. state - contingency gives us flexibility on timing, but experience tells is sometimes less clear and hence less powerful for markets. the ecb ’ s current forward guidance on interest rates states that they will remain at their current level until three state - contingent criteria are met, but with one calendar element due to sequencing. i will come back to them in my second part. for comparison, in the united states, the fed has currently two calendar - based forms of guidance : it will “ soon be appropriate to raise the target range ” for the federal funds rate and “ bringing them to an end in