the need for monetary policy to be forward looking. but i believe this approach also applies to the revitalization of older communities. now, i am by no means a community development expert or a hockey player. during my lifetime, i have lived in several older communities, including rochester, ny, and birmingham, al, where i was born. i attended college in nashville, tn, and graduate school in chicago. i have lived and worked in new york city, as well as in and around los altos, ca, near the heart of silicon valley, and for almost eight years now, i have lived here in philadelphia. bis central bankers ’ speeches it occurs to me that often older communities seek to turn back the clock to restore their past glories. a variation is to chase the puck. but in so doing, they find themselves perpetually in the past, never quite catching up and usually falling further behind. these are unlikely to be successful strategies. it is appropriate to learn from the past. but trying to restore the past is not a strategy for success. as most of you are aware, rebuilding and revitalizing our older cities is not about the past but our ability to seize the future. the philadelphia of tomorrow will not the philadelphia of the past, nor should it be. there are many opportunities for productive transitions and improvements. indeed, we should seek to exploit the latest innovations to make philadelphia, like many of our postindustrial cities represented here today, wonderful places to live, work, and play. we have to acknowledge that our world has changed, and it continues to change at a very rapid pace. embracing that change in order to reinvent the future of our cities is hard work, but it can pay off handsomely. the extent to which we are able to see where emerging trends are headed – where the puck will be, if you will – gives us the chance to take advantage of the opportunities they present. that will allow our communities to be more successful and more effective. i want to spend the remainder of my brief time discussing a few emerging issues for you to consider over the next few days, as you participate in the conference workshops and plenary sessions. emerging trends my comments will focus on the labor market and the importance it plays in shaping the future of our nation, but more relevant for this group, how it is shaping the future of our cities. the financial crisis and great recession led to severe dislocations in many sectors of our economy

, respectively. the third - quarter estimate was the strongest quarterly growth in more than a decade. more important, four of the past five quarters have seen growth rates of 3. 5 percent or more, with only the wintry first quarter as the exception. the philadelphia fed ’ s survey of professional forecasters estimated that fourth - quarter growth would moderate to 2. 7 percent. some recent tracking estimates are now placing it over 3 percent. we won ’ t know what the official first estimate will be until the end of this month, but even that slight slowdown would lead to full - year growth in 2014 that is a bit higher than many had expected. bis central bankers ’ speeches looking forward, i believe we will see growth averaging about 3 percent in 2015 before edging down to a long - term trend growth rate of about 2. 4 percent. recent data also show a stronger contribution from consumer spending, which accounts for more than two - thirds of the gdp. significant improvement in household balance sheets and a stronger employment picture have helped support a more confident consumer. real personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) have grown at a 4. 5 percent annual pace over the past three months. manufacturing also continues to show strength. recent figures from the philadelphia fed ’ s manufacturing business outlook survey, the national ism manufacturing index, and industrial production all indicate that the manufacturing sector is expanding at a healthy pace. strong consumer and business spending has supported consistent gains in the labor market. nonfarm employment expanded by 252, 000 jobs in december, giving us 11 consecutive months of 200, 000 - plus job growth. for the full year, we had average monthly gains of 246, 000 in 2014, compared with 194, 000 in 2013. in fact, we added nearly 3 million jobs in 2014, the most in a calendar year since 1999. those job gains have led to a steady decline in the unemployment rate, which is now 5. 6 percent, down more than a point from a year ago. even the broader measure of unemployment, referred to as u - 6, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part time for economic reasons, has fallen to 11. 2 percent. inflation is running at about 1. 5 percent, which is below the fed ’ s long - term target of 2 percent, as measured by the year - over - year change in the price index for pce. yet, i and many other economists anticipate that inflation will gradually move toward the target as the transitory