of inflation at 1. 7 percent should be viewed as both a success and a wake - up call. we cannot be complacent. a policy - rate path that remains too restrictive for too long could induce an undershooting of our inflation target over the medium term and impede growth. should that occur, we would risk damaging our credibility. after all, credibility can be damaged by both overshooting and undershooting inflation objectives. in an environment of high uncertainty, a prolonged period of stagnation and weak investment could have lasting consequences for inflation. our task going forward is to chart a rate path that removes additional layers of restriction so that the recovery is enhanced. although i have focused on monetary policy, in my view, the contributions of fiscal and structural policies to macroeconomic stability are equally important. furthermore, 5 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches completing the banking union and the capital markets union ( cmu ) is crucial to mobilising the investments needed to promote growth and employment. a single market for capital will enhance the european union's ( eu's ) productivity and competitiveness and increase the euro area's supply capacity and autonomy while supporting mediumterm price stability and economic welfare. finally, i would like to highlight the following factors, which, in my view, explain the success of the ecb's monetary policy so far in bringing inflation towards its 2 - percent target amid a series of shocks, which started with the pandemic and continued with the war in ukraine : first, the institutional independence of the ecb and the national central banks comprising the eurosystem. second, a commitment to the 2 - percent inflation target, using key interest rates as the primary policy tool, supplemented with non - standard measures when required by macroeconomic and monetary conditions. third, a pragmatic, flexible and gradual approach in an environment of heightened uncertainty. fourth, clear and effective communications from the ecb. in a world prone to supply disruptions and susceptible to geopolitical and political uncertainties, monetary policy needs to remain an anchor of stability and confidence. in my view, the ecb has performed efficiently - and credibly - in bringing down inflation in a timely manner while avoiding a recession. we will continue to be data - dependent, assessing all incoming information at each of our forthcoming monetary - policy meetings. we stand ready to proceed with further policy easing in a stepwise approach as warranted in order to safeguard a stable macroeconomic

new markets, following the improvement in competitiveness, openness has increased substantially, and the economy has started to rebalance towards tradable, export - oriented sectors. the share of total exports in gdp increased from 19. 0 % in 2009 to 36 % in 2018. exports of goods and services, excluding the shipping sector, have increased in real terms by 60 % since their trough in 2009, outperforming euro area exports as a whole. the volume of tradable goods and services in the economy increased cumulatively between 2010 and 2017 by approximately 14 % relative to non - tradables in terms of gross value added. the rebalancing of the economy towards the internationally tradable sectors was facilitated by increases in the relative prices and net profit margins of tradable goods and services. it is worth underlining the fact that, in 2017, the estimated net profit margins of tradables were three times higher than those of non - tradables. thanks to the improved economic conditions and the reforms implemented, the unemployment rate, though still high, fell to 19. 2 % in the first quarter of 2019, from 27. 8 % at the end of 2013. 3. the outlook of the greek economy following the stagnation of 2015 – 2016, gdp growth turned positive in 2017 ( 1. 5 % ) and pickedup to 1. 9 % in 2018. recent real gdp data point to continued, albeit decelerating, expansion in the first quarter of 2019 ( 1. 3 % y - o - y ). looking forward, the bank of greece expects that economic activity will remain on a positive growth trajectory, growing by 1. 9 % in 2019 and 2. 1 % in 2020. the catching - up effect from a long depression is projected to counterbalance the negative effect of the global slowdown. growth will be driven by robust, though decelerating, export performance ; solid private consumption growth, supported by rising employment and gradually rising compensation per employee ; and increased investment spending, reflecting the implementation of new investment projects, thanks to the gradual improvement in both confidence and financing conditions, as the acceleration in npl reduction is expected to improve bank lending. the outlook is subject to downside risks, related both to the external and domestic environment. the global growth and trade slowdown could affect export growth more markedly, while a disorderly brexit is also a significant downside risk to the forecast. a possible sharp correction in global financial markets could