##year decline ever in the related time series ), joblessness remains very high, with more than bis central bankers ’ speeches 4. 4 million people out of work, reaffirming the need to persevere with the reforms and policies that have driven the improvements to date. it is also interesting to see that, during the fourth quarter of 2014, residential investment posted quarter - on - quarter growth of 0. 4 %, meaning it has increased for four consecutive quarters. these figures confirm the change in cycle and a moderately upward trajectory. in turn, open - market house prices, according to ine figures, are estimated to have increased by 0. 3 % in 2014, following six years of declines. the year - on - year rate in the fourth quarter was 1. 8 %, suggesting incipient – but growing – price rises, albeit with notable differences across regions and real estate market segments. lastly, house - purchase figures for february announced yesterday also indicate a clear recovery, especially in second - hand housing. underpinning the growth forecasts for our economy for 2015 and 2016 are the growth of private domestic demand and the strength of exports, along with the lower tax burden and the monetary stimulus measures adopted by the ecb, which are already having a significant impact on the cost of financing both for firms and households. our current forecast – which is scheduled for review in june, september and december – is for spanish gdp to grow by 2. 8 % over the course of 2015, and by 2. 7 % in 2016. as to employment, the march figures reinforce our view that the unemployment rate should continue to fall, down to around 20 % of the labour force by the fourth quarter of 2016. in europe, the figures appear to support the view that the risks of deflation have been averted and that the economies of the monetary union and of the european union as a whole are recovering and gaining momentum. if the spanish economy is to benefit from these changes and likewise enjoy sustained higher growth, it will be essential to persevere with the reforms geared to adding market flexibility and boosting investment. admittedly, however, the european and international financial context is unprecedented. the us exit from quantitative easing, with the interest rate rises that the markets expect, and the proliferation of negative interest rates on various financial and government debt markets, make for an unprecedented scenario that poses undoubted risks to financial stability with potentially highly volatile movements in financial asset prices. but if the risk of def

. the erosion of this culture, as occurred in some euro area member countries under european union bail - out programmes, would truly be most negative for the stability of the financial system. second, the legislative amendments must strike an appropriate balance between the rights of creditors and those of debtors, especially the socially excluded, and i should like to highlight the advisability of concentrating efforts in the field of social policies : a country as economically, socially and institutionally developed as spain has sufficient resources to face up to and resolve the most dramatic and unacceptable situations of exclusion and need without affecting financial stability in the process. all these issues have been duly discussed in this congress, which is why i shall focus on the situation of our banking system and on our economic outlook. bis central bankers ’ speeches role and situation of spanish banks i should first like to highlight the crucial importance of banks in resource allocation and their role of intermediation between those supplying and demanding financing. mass access to owner - occupied housing would be almost inconceivable without their intermediation. mortgage lending is a very important segment of the financial intermediation in which credit institutions engage. as at december 2014, mortgage loans for house purchase extended by credit institutions to households amounted to slightly over €541 billion, more than 40 % of total bank lending. the number of outstanding mortgage loans for house purchase is at present 5. 8 million, a large percentage of which ( 82 % ) are at floating rates, which has allowed for the transmission of the eurosystem ’ s more accommodative monetary policy to household financing conditions. the quality of mortgage lending is crucial for the quality of our banks ’ assets and, ultimately, for their solvency and stability. a deterioration in the quality of mortgage assets would affect the conditions on which financial institutions themselves are funded, since it might lead to a downgrading of mortgage market securities and that, in turn, might ultimately worsen borrowing conditions for households and firms. that said, spanish banks are better placed today than one or two years ago to cope with the increase in the demand for credit that our economy will see with the recovery in activity and higher growth. this is due to three interrelated factors. first, the improvement in financial markets, in particular in the euro area. the monetary policy measures adopted by the european central bank and the reforms to the institutional framework of the euro have made a decisive contribution here. second, the recovery in the spanish economy, one component of