commission ( published on july 14 ), respectively. 2. in the right - hand chart, figures are the import values of mineral fuels. the ratio to nominal gdp for 2022 / q2 is obtained by using the nominal gdp for 2022 / q1. sources : cabinet office ; haver ; japan center for economic research ; atlanta fed ; european commission ; ministry of finance. chart 9 iii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy real interest rates synthesized inflation expectations indicator nominal interest rates % 4. 0 1. 6 3. 5 japan 3. 0 united states 2. 5 germany y / y % chg. 1. 4 1. 2 2. 0 1. 0 1. 5 0. 8 1. 0 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 0 0. 2 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 jan. apr. jan. oct. july apr. july 0. 0 cy 07 note : in the right - hand chart, figures are obtained by synthesizing the inflation expectations of firms, households, and experts. those inflation expectations are taken from the tankan for firms, the opinion survey on the general public's views and behavior for households, and the quick survey for experts. sources : bloomberg ; bank of japan ; quick, " quick monthly market survey < bonds >. " chart 10 iii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy wages and prices wages and prices revision of wages ( compiled by rengo ) quarterly annual base pay increases and summer bonuses y / y % chg. y / y % chg. cpi ( less fresh food ) nominal wages ( full - time employees ) - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 3 fy 85 - 3 19 / q1 rate of wage increase ( including regular wages ) % fy 2019 fy 2020 fy 2021 fy 2022 base pay increase ( groups that can be aggregated ) 2. 1 1. 9 1. 8 2. 1 0. 6 0. 5 0. 6 0. 6 small firms : + 0. 7 % bonuses ( survey for large firms ) y / y % chg. 21 / q1 summer winter summer winter summer japan business federation ( keidanren ) - 2. 2 - 9. 0 - 8. 3 - 5. 2 13. 8 nikkei inc. - 5. 4 - 8. 6 - 2. 9 0. 8 10. 5 manufacturing : + 11. 8 % nonmanufacturing

for all items excluding fresh food is likely to increase toward the end of this year due to rises in prices of such items as energy, food, and durable goods, and the average for fiscal 2022 is expected to exceed 2 percent, at 2. 3 percent. however, unless we assume that prices of commodities such as crude oil will continue rising in the future, it is projected from the beginning of 2023 that the positive contribution of the rise in energy prices to the cpi will wane and the pass - through of cost increases will weaken gradually. as a result, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi for all items excluding fresh food is expected to decelerate from fiscal 2022 to 1. 4 percent for fiscal 2023 and 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2024. in terms of inflation that also excludes energy, for which prices see significant short - term fluctuations, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi is likely to increase moderately in positive territory on the back of improvement in the output gap, rises in medium - to long - term inflation expectations, and in wage growth. that said, even in fiscal 2024, which is the end of the projection period, the rate of increase is expected to only be at around 1. 5 percent. in sum, achievement of the price stability target of 2 percent in a sustainable and stable manner is not yet envisaged at this point. iii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy basic thinking on monetary policy let me now talk about the bank's conduct of monetary policy. the bank conducts monetary policy with the aim of achieving the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner. achieving the price stability target does not mean that the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi temporarily reaches 2 percent due to an exogenous increase in import prices such as energy, but rather that the rate registers 2 percent on average over the business cycle. from this perspective, it is necessary to examine the sustainability of price increases by comprehensively assessing the outlook for prices, as well as the underlying output gap, medium - to long - term inflation expectations, and wage developments, in addition to various measures of core inflation, which exclude temporary fluctuations. what is important is to achieve a virtuous cycle where wages and prices rise simultaneously and people's living standards improve amid continued growth in the economy. in this regard, japan's economy is still on its way to recovery from the down