the slowdown in the emerging countries, risks that are pretty significant for the euro area. there are also downward pressures on prices in the manufacturing sector as a result of surplus output and the very high unemployment level. but monetary policy alone will not solve all the problems. is the situation in greece under control now? discussions are ongoing and are still intensive at the political and technical levels, but the will to succeed is there and the atmosphere of the discussions has improved considerably. it is distinctly more positive than it was at the beginning of the year. a great deal of progress has already been made through these negotiations. significant reforms have been voted in. the banks will be able to be recapitalised. nevertheless, the situation remains very fragile in this country. after the debt crisis, isn ’ t the migration crisis the next threat to european cohesion? or does it represent more of an opportunity? europe must show that it is a prosperous and secure area. in the short term migration will have an economic impact in the form of a fiscal expansion with some positive impact on growth. germany ’ s fiscal situation is likely to deteriorate by around 0. 3 % to 0. 4 % of gdp in 2016 and 2017. this deterioration will be weaker in other countries. in the long term we will also have to look at the impact of the refugee crisis. this population is different, and care will have to be taken in integrating the migrants into the labour market, especially in germany. in the medium term, from a demographic point of view, it can be a positive factor. the key issue is that of integrating migrants into the labour market in line with their profiles. all of these economic aspects are known and straightforward. from an economic perspective, this situation is not insurmountable ; it is above all a political issue. the more integration we achieve at the economic level, the more it will be accepted politically. but all of this cannot be done in a day. europe needs a young and well - trained workforce. we can create an opportunity out of a tragic situation, but it is not going to be easy. it is possible for a country to organise migration, and we have already done so in the past. the issue of security to combat the threat of terrorism will become a major challenge for governments in the months to come. france has already said that it will take a few liberties with the european deficit limits. shouldn ’ t the fiscal straightjacket on member states be loosened? this has

been a little bit overstated, because the security figures are quite low in the budgets, and it is not prohibitively expensive to strengthen security. of course, it is relevant from a fiscal bis central bankers ’ speeches point of view, but the amounts are not very high. by contrast, if we include the cost of national defence under security, then the figures are potentially higher. however, it should be emphasised that this is not the source of france ’ s fiscal woes : it also has a well - known structural problem. how can we counter the surge in nationalist and populist currents in europe from an economic perspective? by delivering the prosperity and economic security that was promised when we created the euro area. today, we have the same level of economic output as we had eight years ago. the crisis caused significant economic and social pain, notably in the countries that experienced a drop in their living standards. inequality has risen as a result of unemployment. this is unacceptable socially and has political consequences. there is no obvious willingness to integrate the euro area further. we are at a turning point. integration at the financial level is progressing, but the european project as a whole needs to be further deepened. we must resist the temptation to go into reverse ; we shouldn ’ t agree to stand still : we must forge ahead towards more integration. as a central banker, i am more of an observer than an actor in this area. monetary policy is only one part of this. but even the harshest critics acknowledge that the ecb is an institution that functions well and has the capacity to take decisions and to avoid catastrophes. the same effectiveness would be required at the political level, even if, admittedly, it is more difficult. and, as i said earlier, the crisis did not reveal the weaknesses of monetary union, but rather the weaknesses of an incomplete monetary union. bis central bankers ’ speeches