christian noyer : demographic shifts – threats or opportunities? opening remarks by mr christian noyer, governor of the bank of france and chairman of the board of directors of the bank for international settlements, at the montreal conference : “ demographic shifts – threats or opportunities? ”, montreal, 11 june 2012. * * * ladies and gentlemen, it is a real pleasure for me to open this session of the montreal conference on demographic shifts. i am no demographics expert, you know, but i will try to give my opinion of central banker on this extremely important matter. there is no major uncertainty as to the demographic shifts that are in progress. we already have a clear idea of the likely demographic trends for the coming decades and, even more importantly, of their age and geographical breakdowns. we must capitalise on this knowledge to analyse the potential impacts of these shifts and determine how they could contribute to decision - making. in that regard, i would like to raise a few points that are relevant to central bankers. i will focus on the case of developed countries and more particularly on europe, where demographic developments are mainly driven by the combination of longer life expectancy and a low fertility rate. as regards the latter, it is comforting to note that this rate in france and canada is less problematic than those in most economies of the same group. when considering demographic developments, much attention is paid, legitimately, to public debt issues. but demographic shifts can also impact the macroeconomic environment more broadly. i will briefly discuss the impact of demographic shifts on potential growth and monetary policy. then, i will discuss other likely macroeconomic and financial stability outcomes, via the impact of ageing on savings and investment. 1. direct impact on potential growth and monetary policy ageing can weigh on monetary policy notably through its impact on potential output. for a central bank, potential output and output gap developments are of major concern. from a more practical point of view, among many other measures, the eurosystem uses taylor - like rules to determine its monetary policy stance. according to these rules, the central bank ’ s rate should be close to the natural interest rate, i. e. the rate consistent with output at its potential level and stable inflation. the difficulty lies in how to assess the gap between observed and potential output. you see that potential output matters in our reaction function and since demographic developments are a key parameter for potential output, demographics ultimately directly concern monetary policy as well. what are the main consequences of demographics for

denis beau : financial markets - driving innovation and connectivity opening remarks by mr denis beau, first deputy governor of the bank of france, at the paris financial seminar, co - organised by the hong kong monetary authority and paris europlace, hong kong, 16 january 2019. * * * ladies and gentlemen, i am very pleased to open this seminar jointly organised by paris europlace and the hong kong monetary authority ( hkma ). a new year is usually the time when we regain confidence in the future and in our collective ability to prepare for it. * * * however there are many uncertainties weighing on the global economic outlook. in europe, there are still many uncertainties about the outcome of brexit negotiations and the vote over the withdrawal agreement. caution requires that we all be prepared for a no - deal scenario. public authorities and most importantly market participants have all prepared serious contingency plans to address and master the cliff - edge risks associated with such a no - deal scenario. as a result, we can expect that those risks will be appropriately managed, without financial stability implications, should such a scenario occur. outside europe, global trade tensions are also generating additional uncertainties. protectionism can indeed be a temptation, but in my view it should not be an option. let ’ s be clear : our economies are increasingly integrated, and research conducted at the banque de france suggests that a rise in protectionism on a large scale ( i. e. a generalised trade war scenario ) would have a negative impact on global growth. yet these uncertainties can be turned into opportunities and i would like to emphasise that. it is worth noting that eu member states remained impressively united behind their negotiator, michel barnier, during the brexit talks. this unity must now be directed towards achieving an ambition : completing and strengthening the economic and monetary union. this period of uncertainties actually reminds us that bilateral and multilateral cooperation are quite valuable, as they are a common wealth enhancer, especially when the issue at stake is financial regulation and financial stability. at the end of 2017, central bankers and supervisors reached a very important agreement on the basel iii post - crisis regulatory reforms. this agreement must now be implemented in various jurisdictions to further increase the soundness of the banking system. since the great financial crisis, other issues have emerged. cyber - risks have risen significantly over the last few years and the financial sector remains a primary target. the surge of crypto -