and as mentioned, the most important, perhaps the only, instrument available to the authorities in addressing this challenge is to restrain petroleum revenue spending. petroleum revenue investment let me now turn to the government pension fund global. see for example the national budget for 2010, box 3. 1, p. 53. it took a generation from the time the first oil field was discovered in the north sea until the government began to set aside economic rent. the government petroleum fund was established in 1990 and the first transfer to the wealth fund was made in 1996. each year since that time, as a savings plan, the government has set aside a portion of current income from petroleum activities as deposits in the fund. today, the value of the fund is around nok 2. 6 trillion, or about 115 per cent of 2009 gdp in norway. new transfers will likely be made to the fund for perhaps a little more than another decade. the fund will in that case continue to grow and may reach twice its current size. the actual build - up of the fund may span a short generation. the fund will thereafter enter a new phase. with lower revenues from oil and gas activities, it will no longer receive capital transfers from the government. when oil and gas revenues cease to provide the government with economic rent, only the annual real return on the fund can be used on a permanent basis. in the mid - 1990s, oil prices were around usd 20 per barrel and revenues were set aside. this year the oil price must be over usd 50 per barrel to generate sufficient oil revenues to make transfers to the fund. we must be prepared for wide variations in oil prices, and the first year without transfers of oil revenues – but rather withdrawals – may be approaching. increase in equity share under the fund ’ s investment strategy, more equities are purchased when equity prices fall and fewer when prices rise. thus, the fund purchased a large volume of equities in the period from 2001 to 2003 and during 2008 and 2009. as a result the fund currently holds a little more than 1¾ per cent of listed european equities and roughly 1 per cent of all listed equities. the fund ’ s stock holdings are spread across different countries, sectors and regions. in the early days of the fund, the benchmark portfolio was restricted to investments in western europe, north america, japan, brazil and a limited number of countries from all over the world. today the benchmark portfolio is more diversified and includes a large number

will continue to be important factors ahead. the key policy rate also has a direct impact on household and corporate demand. the rate reduction in 2014 stimulated consumption and investment. now that growth has gained a foothold, we can take our foot off the pedal a little. gradually higher interest rates will reduce the pressure that would otherwise have been generated by higher activity, higher employment and higher wage growth. a third channel is often referred to as the expectations channel. for monetary policy to be effective, changes in the key policy rate must pass through to market rates. monetary policy effectiveness increases if changes in the key policy rate influence expectations of future interest rate levels. an investment is made to provide a profit over a number of years, and mortgage payments have to be met throughout the term of the loan. so today ’ s interest rate level is not the only important factor. the interest rate path we published last week showed that the key policy rate will probably be raised gradually. when households and firms perceive signals concerning future interest rate developments as credible, the impact of interest rate increases that lie ahead may occur earlier. communication enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy communication about the evolution of the economy is therefore an important part of norges bank ’ s monetary policy. we communicate our view of the economic situation and our monetary policy trade - offs in various ways. the bank ’ s most important channel of communication is the monetary policy report. the report contains a thorough review of new information that is relevant to the evolution of the norwegian economy and the background for the interest rate decision. last week, the bank launched a new product – pengepolitikken kort fortalt [ monetary policy in brief ]. [ 1 ] we believe there is a need for this. this product is designed for norwegian readers looking for a more generalised, brief description of the background for the interest rate decision. the fundamental message conveyed is of course the same as in the bank ’ s monetary policy report. norges bank has published forecasts for the key policy rate three to four years ahead since 2005. if the economy evolves as envisaged by norges bank, this is the bank ’ s best forecast for future key policy rate levels. the interest rate forecast is thus a summary of the message in the monetary policy report. it is important to remember that the interest rate forecast is a conditional forecast and not a promise. the interest rate path has been revised frequently, and sometimes fairly substantially – as during the financial crisis and in the wake