##polating further when structural factors supporting high volumes remain intact. terms of trade, including gold, weakened 6. 3 % from 2011q1 to 2014q2. excluding gold, the decrease is 7 %. physical volume production, iron, 2005q1 to 2014q2. bis central bankers ’ speeches it is also worth noting that south africa ’ s export markets continue to shift. in particular, the african market is becoming much more important for us. 3 europe the trajectory of europe remains an important determinant of global macroeconomic conditions and for south african outcomes. in recent years, weakness in the european economy has meant that there have been few real benefits to sa despite major rand depreciation against the euro. 4 as with the united states, we appear to be witnessing a seachange in european policy – although this could not possibly be described as normalisation. the question for south african monetary policy is whether these changes will offset us normalisation, fully, partially, or not at all. from a real economy perspective, a sustainably growing europe is crucial, but this may take considerable time to materialise. it is very hard to imagine europe returning to growth with its current institutional configuration and policy settings. the contradictions are too overwhelming. household consumption and investment across euro area has and will remain weak so long as banks remain in financial distress and property values and the housing markets are depressed. europe ’ s financial sector needs a clearing out of bad debt. the emphasis on fiscal austerity – clearly correct for over - indebted sovereigns – would, cumulated across europe, weigh too heavily on growth in the absence of any other demand stimulus and an exuberantly strong currency. germany has stood out for its strong growth in the midst of stagnation by its neighbours, but its longer - term interests cannot be served by endless stagnation in the euro area. the country seems too integral to the rest of europe, via positive and negative spillovers, to continue indefinitely on a real depreciation - based economic strategy. it cannot declare independence from europe. rather, europeans probably need to think of themselves less like we do these days – less as small open economies subjected to the vagaries of currency fluctuations and capital flows – and more like a continental super - economy if the region as a whole is to prosper. it is, perhaps, out of recognition that the old “ normal ” cannot go on that the ecb has moved resolutely in the

mugur isrescu : 50th anniversary of romania's entry to the circuit of international financial institutions speech by mr mugur isrescu, governor of the national bank of romania, on the occasion of 50 years since romania joined the international monetary fund and the world bank, bucharest, 31 january 2023. * * * distinguished audience, in december 1972, romania joined the international bank for reconstruction and development ( world bank ) and the international monetary fund ( imf ). at that time, romania was the first – and remained until 1989 - the only country from the treaty of warsaw and comecon ( council for mutual economic assistance ) that had entered the circuit of international financial institutions. to mark this anniversary, the national bank of romania has launched into circulation, for numismatic purposes, a silver coin. the obverse of the coin depicts the old palace of the national bank of romania, the inscription " romania " in a circular arc, the coat of arms of romania, the face value " 10 lei " and the year of issue " 2022 ". the reverse of the silver coin has the logos of the international monetary fund and the world bank and the inscriptions in romanian " romania's accession to the international monetary fund and the world bank " and " 50 years ". that moment in 1972 became part of a number of further positive decisions that put romania in the global economic family : joining the general agreement on tariffs and trade ( gatt ) in 1971 ; acquiring preferential trading status with the european common market in 1973 ; being granted the most - favored - nation status by the united states congress in 1975 ; obtaining facilitated access to credits from the export - import bank and the commodity credit corporation ( ccc ). over the same period of time, mixed capital companies were established in romania as well as abroad, including, within the banking sector : banque franco - roumaine, anglo - romanian bank, banca italoromena, frankfurt bukarest bank ag, misr romanian bank. the brand of the american bank - manufacturers hanover trust - was visible in university square, right in the heart of bucharest, and in premium data technology romcontroldata was operating in the country. unfortunately, during the 1980s the authorities in bucharest weakened the relationship between romania and the west, including those with the bretton woods institutions, almost close to severing all ties. after the fall of the communist regime, the normalization of the relationship led to a new beginning. as