those seeking to adapt to the changes occurring in demand, from those spurious novelties that provide no significant improvements and which should be blocked as soon as possible. in other words, what is truly important should be separated from what is simply showy. in this respect, cryptoassets or cryptotokens are one of the most striking developments in this area, going by the extensive media coverage some of them – such as the bitcoin – are receiving. but this does not mean that they are the most important or even the most promising innovation. indeed, in my view, their current use poses more risks than benefits : they have a low level of acceptance as a means of payment, they are subject to extreme 3 / 6 volatility, they have numerous operating vulnerabilities and they have been related to fraudulent or illicit activities in many cases. i shall not, however, give an exhaustive list of the risks of crypto assets, since the position of the banco de espana in this connection is well - known. but i will draw attention to how important it is to disassociate cryptoassets or tokens from their underlying distributed ledger technology. distributed ledger technology offers interesting possibilities insofar as it allows, in short, a ledger book to be shared securely among various agents. although this technology is not yet sufficiently mature, it has the potential to generate efficiency gains and cost cuts in activities that require continuous reconciliations among various agents, either because such activities are relatively non - standardised, involve a high number of intermediaries or require complex processes. areas such as securities trading and post - trading, international settlements, collateral management, trade finance and the management of digital identities might benefit from the use of this technology once it ultimately matures. also, the programming of smart contracts on a distributed network might add further gains in efficiency, by providing for the automation of processes. this is so, especially, in the case of complex contracts that give rise to multiple transactions distributed over time or conditional upon one another. other innovations receiving less media attention than cryptotokens nevertheless appear to be more mature and are, in practice, exerting a notable impact on the way in which financial institutions in general, and banks in particular, provide their services. i am referring specifically to big data, artificial intelligence and what is known as cloud computing. big data offer clear potential for enhancing and personalising the supply of financial services. true, financial institutions have for

; orange bars for latin america ; blue bars for developed. solid bars show change from december 2019's statistical cutoff ; hollow bars show changes with respect to max and min. ( 2 ) increase ( decrease ) indicates depreciation ( appreciation ). ( 3 ) multilateral exchange rate. source : bloomberg. figure 3 change in 5 - year cds and embi since december 2019 mp report ( * ) ( basis points ) 5 - year cds spread sudafrica mexico brasil colombia rusia indonesia chile peru espana portugal grecia italia francia australia reino unido china japon n. zelanda alemania ee. uu. rep. corea hungria noruega polonia - 100 embi spread sudafrica mexico india - 50 colombia indonesia hungria malasia chile brasil peru rusia polonia china - 100 ( * ) green bars stand for emerging economies ; orange bars for latin america ; blue bars for developed. solid bars show change from december 2019's statistical cutoff ; hollow bars show changes with respect to max and min. multilateral exchange rate. source : bloomberg. figure 4 2020 growth forecast in latest monetary policy reports ( * ) ( annual change, percent ) - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 ee. uu. eurozona china a. latina ( * ) evolution of forecasts from mp reports of september 2018 to march 2020. source : central bank of chile. figure 5 commodity prices 2020 forecasts terms of trade ( usd / lb ; usd / barrel ) ( index, 2013 = 100 ) 3. 00 2. 75 2. 50 2. 25 2. 00 copper oil ( 1 ) evolution of the forecast between the mp reports of march 2019 and march 2020. ( 2 ) red diamonds show forecasts for the period 2020 - 2022 contained in the mp report of march 2020. source : central bank of chile. figure 6 how do you feel about the performance of your business over the next six months? very preoccupied slightly preoccupied not preoccupied unfolding of social conflict effects of covid - 19 global economic situation tightened lending standards how will your firm's number of employees evolve in 2020 with respect to today? will drop significantly will drop slightly will not change source : business survey, central bank of chile. will increase slightly figure 7 national unemployment rates and extended measures total employment ( contribution to annual change, percentage points ) self - employed salaried informal 3 total employment ( percent ) potential rate ( 4 ) unemploy '