60 % since their trough in 2009, outperforming euro area exports as a whole. · the volume of tradable goods and services in the economy increased cumulatively between 2010 and 2017 by approximately 14 % relative to non - tradables in terms of gross value added. 3. the outlook for the greek economy following the stagnation of 2015 – 2016, gdp growth returned to positive territory in 2017 ( 1. 5 % ) and picked up to 1. 9 % in 2018. recent real gdp data point to continued expansion in the second quarter of 2019 ( 1. 9 % y - o - y ). thanks to the improved economic conditions and to the reforms implemented since 2010, the unemployment rate, though still high, fell to 16. 9 % in the second quarter of 2019, from 27. 8 % at the end of 2013. looking forward, the bank of greece expects that economic activity will remain on a positive growth trajectory, expanding by 1. 9 % in 2019 ( that is by 2. 3 % year - on - year in the second semester of 2019 ) and above 2 % in 2020. 3 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches the outlook is subject to downside risks, related both to the external and the domestic environment. the global growth and trade slowdown due to the imminent trade war could affect export growth more markedly, while the disorderly brexit, geopolitical tensions and the recent increase in oil prices are further significant downside risks. a possible sharp correction in global capital and financial markets could increase the cost and reduce the availability of funding, particularly for the private sector. there are also downside risks on the fiscal front, associated with ongoing court rulings on pension cuts, which could weigh on debt sustainability. in addition, an exacerbation of the refugee crisis could hurt tourism and trade. however, there are also domestic opportunities, relating to a rapid implementation of structural reforms in greece and the reduction ( both direct and indirect ) of the primary surplus fiscal targets. the fact that greece still lags behind its peers and competitors in almost all indices of structural competitiveness, is a huge opportunity for a rapid catch - up which should be exploited. 4. future challenges despite the progress made so far, major short - and medium - to long - term challenges and crisisrelated legacies remain. a ) medium - to long - term challenges the main medium - to long - term challenges are the following : · the high public debt (

an exceptionally strong pace, but the external sector was subtracting from growth. inflation at this time was also above 3 per cent. even so, we did not use monetary policy to rein in the rapid growth of domestic demand because, for the economy as a whole, growth was not excessive and was not threatening our inflation objective over the medium term, despite being above it in the short run. while monetary policy is directed at the economy as a whole, it does not mean that we have to direct an equal amount of attention to each of its components. those parts that are obviously exhibiting a serious imbalance will attract more of our attention than those that are relatively well behaved. this explains why we have spent so much time talking about, and researching, the excessively rapid growth in housing credit and, until recently, house prices. while other economic variables were more important for the overall macro - economic outlook, for example consumption and wage growth, their behaviour was not as clearly aberrant and therefore not in need of such intensive study. the forecast for gdp growth in 2004 that i presented before is based on the view that domestic demand will slow from its former rapid pace, but at the same time the subtraction from growth due to the external sector will gradually diminish. consumption has recently slowed a bit, although it continues to be supported by strong employment growth and will benefit from the tax cuts later in the year. business fixed investment, particularly in building and structures, will add to growth but not to the same extent as in recent years. residential investment is expected to subtract from growth and government spending will add to it. overall, expected gdp growth of 3¾ per cent would be a good outcome. at this stage, we are not assuming a significant drought effect over the coming twelve months, but this remains a downward risk, given the dry conditions prevailing in some parts of the country so far this year. on the inflation front, we do not see a problem over the next twelve months. beyond that, the picture is of necessity more difficult to quantify. last time we met we were slightly troubled by the fact that inflation in the non - traded sector was over 4 per cent, and that if this continued it might imply a medium - term outlook for inflation somewhat above 3 per cent. this is still a risk, but we have taken some comfort from the fact that some of the sectors that were pushing it up - such as house - building and property services - should slow as