index ( cpi ) for all items excluding fresh food was projected to increase moderately due partly to the narrowing of the negative output gap as the economy picked up gradually and to a moderate rise in commodity prices on the back of the continued relatively strong growth in emerging and commodity - exporting economies. meanwhile, attention should be paid to the possibility that the recent appreciation of the yen was likely to exert downward pressure on domestic prices by holding down import prices. the median of the forecasts for the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi was minus 0. 4 percent for fiscal 2010, plus 0. 1 percent for fiscal 2011, and plus 0. 6 percent for fiscal 2012. regarding the above forecasts for economic activity and prices presented in the bank ’ s october 2010 outlook report, the following risks warrant attention. the fiscal year in japan starts in april and ends in march. bis central bankers ’ speeches first, if the pace of already robust growth in emerging and commodity - exporting economies accelerates further as a result of strong domestic demand and the continued inflow of risk money from advanced economies pursuing prolonged monetary easing, this may push up economic activity in japan and result in stronger - than - expected growth. however, such growth could be followed by the unwinding of risk exposure, which may result in larger adjustments in financial and economic activity, thus posing a downside risk to the japanese economy from a longer - term perspective. second, with regard to the advanced economies of europe and the united states, the bank feels that, overall, uncertainty remains high and risks are tilted to the downside. in the united states, the pace of recovery in the labor market is likely to be only moderate, and households in particular remain burdened by balance - sheet adjustments. therefore, it will remain difficult for the self - sustaining virtuous circle of growth in production, income, and spending to operate properly. in europe, there are concerns that, in 2011, the effects of economic stimulus measures could wane with the implementation of fiscal austerity programs. in addition, concerns over the sovereign risk of some european countries might have adverse effects on economic activity through a rise in long - term interest rates and a deterioration in market sentiment. third, turning to the situation in japan, if uncertainty about the outlook for overseas economies heightens further and the foreign exchange and stock markets become unstable, this might lower firms ’ medium - to long - term growth expectations and lead to a deterioration in household sentiment,

centre for health protection, department of health, respectively. all other figures are from the world health organization ( who ). figures for europe are the sum of figures for the european union ( eu ) and the united kingdom. figures for latin america are the sum of figures for the major economies in the region. figures for other emerging economies are the sum of figures for south africa, russia, turkey, and the major economies in the nies, asean, and the middle east. figures show 7 - day backward moving averages. source : ceic. chart 2 i. economic developments corporate sector in japan ( 3 ) real exports and imports s. a., cy 2015 = 100 ( 4 ) industrial production s. a., % of real gdp - 2 real trade balance ( right scale ) real exports ( left scale ) s. a., cy 2015 = 100 production inventories - 4 real imports ( left scale ) cy 06 - 6 note : based on bank staff calculations. figures for 2022 / q1 are those for january. sources : cabinet office ; ministry of finance ; bank of japan. cy 06 notes : 1. shaded areas denote recession periods. 2. the figure denoted by the circle to the right is calculated using projections by the ministry of economy, trade and industry for february and march 2022. the inventories figure for 2022 / q1 is that for january. source : ministry of economy, trade and industry. chart 3 i. economic developments corporate sector in japan ( 5 ) real exports by region ( 6 ) real exports by type of goods s. a., 2016 / q1 = 100 s. a., 2016 / q1 = 100 150 140 140 130 130 120 china < 21. 6 > united states < 17. 9 > nies, asean, etc. < 36. 3 > other economies < 15. 0 > eu < 9. 2 > cy 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 notes : 1. based on bank staff calculations. figures in angle brackets show the share of each country or region in japan's total exports in 2021. figures for 2022 / q1 are those for january. 2. figures for the eu exclude those for the united kingdom for the entire period. sources : ministry of finance ; bank of japan. s. a., 2016 / q1 = 100 s. a., 2016 / q1 = 100 intermediate goods < 22. 4 > motor vehicles and related goods