2018. in the first six months of 2020, inflation averaged at 2. 5 percent, which is within the national government ’ s target of 2. 0 – 4. 0 percent for this year. latest bsp baseline forecasts indicate that inflation could settle at 2. 3 percent which is at the lower end of the national government ’ s target range of 2. 0 to 4. 0 percent for 2020 and 2021. our robust external payments position, which provides adequate buffers against global risks and shocks, is another source of strength. 1 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches the country ’ s balance of payments ( bop ) position recorded a surplus of us $ 7. 8 billion in 2019, a turnaround from the us $ 2. 3 billion deficit registered in 2018. from january to may 2020, the bop position posted a surplus of us $ 4. 0 billion. the peso has been broadly stable supported by the philippines ’ strong external payments position. while most regional currencies have depreciated against the us dollar, the peso has appreciated. the peso, which closed at 49. 56 on 16 july, appreciated by 2. 17 percent on a year - to - date basis against the us dollar. as a consequence of the asian financial crisis in 1997, the philippines gradually accumulated foreign reserves as a self - insurance against a currency crisis. as of end - june 2020, the country ’ s gross international reserves ( gir ) stood at an all - time high of us $ 93. 3 billion, the highest ever in philippine history. this is enough to cover 8. 4 months ’ worth of imports of goods and payments for services and primary income. it is also equivalent to 7. 3 times the country ’ s short - term external debt based on original maturity. the country ’ s favorable external debt profile likewise supports the external payments position. as of end - march 2020, the philippines ’ external debt stock stood at us $ 81. 4 billion, lower by us $ 2. 2 billion compared to end - december 2019 level. note that the philippines ’ external debt - to - gdp ratio was 59. 7 percent progressively fallen to 21. 4 percent as of end - march 2020. in 2005. it has our debt - to - gdp ratio remains as one of the lowest among asean member countries. we are also fortunate that the bsp and the industry stakeholders have already laid the groundwork for a safe and efficient payments and settlements system in the country. the national

jean claude - trichet : the emergence of china in the global economy – a european perspective speech by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank, at the chinaeurope business meeting, frankfurt am main, 8 november 2007. * * * ladies and gentlemen, it is with great pleasure that i am here, today, to address this distinguished audience on such an interesting and topical issue such as the emergence of china in the global economy. “ globalisation ” is the catch - word often used to describe the current era, and one of those evocative terms that everybody tends to grasp in quite different ways : some as a threat, others as an opportunity. this also applies to one important ingredient of globalisation, which everyone would probably recognise as its most distinctive feature today : the impressive rise of countries such as china – but also brazil, russia, or india – in the world economy. these are only the most prominent economies in a much broader group which the world bank labelled as “ emerging countries ” for the first time in 1981. when focusing on china, however, it would be more appropriate to talk about a “ re - emerging ” country. together with india, china was indeed estimated to account for nearly half of world output in 1820, on the verge of the industrial revolution. and after a historic trough in the mid - 1970s of around 8 % of world gdp, these two countries are now “ back on stage ”, expected as they are to become the world ’ s first and third largest economies by 2050. the emergence of china and its impact on the global economy have both been well documented. as you all know, this topic has in recent years attracted the attention of public opinion, especially with regard to the economic relations between china and the united states. this relationship – one of the cornerstones of our global economy today – has brought great benefits to both economies and to the world at large, but it has often also been surrounded by no small amount of debate, for instance with regard to the contribution of china to the us current account deficit. us - china developments have thus far been the focus of much debate, but what has perhaps received less attention is europe ’ s stake in this whole issue, particularly in the context of the impressive expansion of its economic ties with china over the past few years. a famous london - based economics magazine has recently gone as far as criticising european policy makers for having taken much longer than their american counterparts to “ wake up ”