samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries ”, ecb working paper series, no 1777. bundesbank trade balance data corrected for the so - called “ rotterdam effect ”, that is, the fact that german intra - area imports are “ inflated ” by imports from ( mainly ) the netherlands which are actually imports from countries outside the euro area. bis central bankers ’ speeches several factors suggest that these developments are not purely cyclical. on the demand side, estimates by the ecb, as well as the imf and the european commission, suggest that – with the exception of greece – the majority of current account adjustment in deficit countries has been “ non - cyclical ”. 3 “ non - cyclical ”, however, does not mean “ structural ”. what it means is simply that, though falling demand did depress imports during the crisis, potential growth has fallen as well. thus, when the output gap closes, current account positions should not substantially worsen. “ non - cyclical ”, however, does not mean “ structural ”. what it means is simply that, though falling demand did depress imports during the crisis, potential growth has fallen as well. thus, when the output gap closes, current account positions should not substantially worsen. on the supply side, there is also evidence of structural shifts in deficit countries that should help sustain their export performance. cost competitiveness – measured in terms of real effective exchange rates deflated by unit labour costs ( ulcs ) – has improved strongly since the start of the crisis. in most cases real effective exchange rates now stand close to 1999 levels or even below. that suggests much of the pre - crisis “ excesses ” have been reversed. to give some examples, in ireland the improvement in cost competitiveness from peak to trough is close to 50 percentage points. in greece and latvia the figure is around 30 percentage points. spain and cyprus have seen improvements of 20 – 25 percentage points, while for portugal the figure is around 15 percentage points. in each case, the largest part of the improvement has come from relative cost adjustments rather than changes in the nominal exchange rate. what is less well known is that we have also seen cost adjustments in surplus countries. in germany, ulc growth relative to the euro area has accelerated strongly in recent years, on the back of more robust wage growth and slowing productivity. that has translated into a small correction in its cost position relative to its euro area partners. however, thanks to the de

’ health, happiness and success for the year 2020. now, i welcome your questions. faqe 5 nga 5
sabine lautenschlager : european banks - the quest for the best business model speech by ms sabine lautenschlager, member of the executive board of the european central bank and vice - chair of the supervisory board of the european central bank, at the ecb forum on banking supervision, frankfurt am main, 7 november 2017. * * * the banking sector is going through tough times. having emerged from a major crisis, it faces challenges and change. but one thing has not changed, and it never will. a bank needs a sustainable business model. it has to earn revenues ; it has to keep its costs in check ; and it has to keep its risks under control. how all this is done has changed, however. many things that still worked a couple of years ago no longer work today. let me quickly highlight a few points. profitability is low for many banks. first, for a long time, economic growth was low. together with low interest rates, that has put a brake on a traditional source of revenue. banks, in particular those that have not found a profitable market niche, need to diversify their sources of revenue. digitalisation might offer a solution, but it is certainly not the only one. second, some national banking markets in europe are overbanked and therefore overly competitive. so there is a need for consolidation – consolidation which leads to stronger banks with viable business models. third, many banks still have high costs, partly because of their large branch networks. but how large do these networks actually need to be in this age of digital banking? fourth, some banks are still weighed down by impaired balance sheets. they need to get rid of legacy assets such as non - performing loans. fifth, some banks could improve the way they handle risks. they need to establish a strong risk culture, set up adequate risk governance and integrate it into their overall structure. and finally, all banks have to adapt to more stringent rules. it is true that they come at a cost, but in the long run, their benefits are greater. society benefits in any case, but so do the banks. strong rules help to win people ’ s trust, and that is an important asset for banks. a few banks still have some way to go – they still need to adapt their business models ; they need to find their competitive advantage. those banks which want to prosper in the future need to act now. and it is indeed possible to prosper, even in tough

times. across the euro area, we see about two dozen large banks which constantly outperform their peers. they are based in different countries, they are of different sizes, and they have different business models. so it is not about a single successful business model. it is about the whole set - up of how to do banking today. and, as these banks show, it is possible to succeed – that is encouraging, for us and for the banks. these are challenging times for banks ; there is no doubt about that. one thing is clear, though : tomorrow ’ s business models will look different from today ’ s. but hasn ’ t that always been true? 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches thank you for your attention. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches
lesetja kganyago : honouring the life and legacy of a doyen of black business address by mr lesetja kganyago, governor of the south african reserve bank, at the memorial service for the late dr sam motsuenyane, sandton, johannesburg, 7 may 2024. * * * good afternoon, and let me once again share my deepest condolences to mme motsuenyane and the family, the bakwena - ba - modimosana farming clan and dr motsuenyane's many near and dear friends. there are so many black men and women in south africa who can relay a story of when they first heard about the legendary sam motsuenyane – starting as far back as the 60s, 70s, 80s and, of course, the decades that followed. i mentioned those three decades specifically because, as a black person, and an african in particular, it was painfully difficult to start a business, to operate in a politically volatile and economically hostile environment. but dr motsuenyane took the courageous decision to defy the apartheid policies aimed at excluding him from the formal economy. and defy the odds, he surely did. i was a youngster when the tales of him and other doyens of black business were shared with me by our elders. there was such respect and pride when these stories were told of a man who was relentless in his drive for excellence, for success, for growth, for wealth creation, for economic development, and most importantly, for uplifting communities. for nearly eight decades, he worked tirelessly across so many areas – starting with the founding of nafcoc in 1964, followed by a dream to establish a bank that would serve the unbanked and underserved african community. that perseverance and determination paid off. when i visited him in winterveldt, he lamented the many members of his family and friends who told him to throw in the towel when it seemed they were not going to raise the capital needed to get a banking licence. but true entrepreneurs do not give up. inspired by black business owners in the united states who had established their own bank, he and others set out to convince people from across the country to invest. any amount, big or small, was welcomed as they moved one step closer to realising this dream. a genius strategic move sealed the deal. in 1972, he, together with a group of business

development of black - owned businesses and economic liberation. he lived an exemplary life, one that was in true service of humankind. robala ka khotso mokwena! 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches
3 this is covered in detail in the rba ’ s annual reports / rba / 2016 / operations - in - financial - markets. html. 4 / 4 reports : www. rba. gov. au / publications / annual - bis central bankers'speeches

other hand, we have to keep pace, incentivize and support financial innovations. so how is the central banking community grappling with the new and innovative payment eco - system? according to the central banking fintech benchmarks survey ( 2023 ), over 80 % of central banks pointed to payment innovations and central bank digital currencies ( cbdcs ) as top research priorities. about two thirds of the central banks have created innovation hubs, although more in advanced than in developing economies, and half of the central banks use machine learning technologies or artificial intelligence. regulatory and legislative changes are taking place intensively. according to imf – wbg fintech survey, 73 % of surveyed jurisdictions review and amend their policy frameworks with a view on encouraging fintech investments, innovation and adoption. the oversight and supervisory profile of central banks is changing as well. as we have to supervise non - bank payment institutions, we deal with entities with different risk profiles and put greater focus on issues such as transparency, pricing, market conduct, consumer protection. the flourishing of new technologies requires increased focus on cybersecurity. overall, changes in the financial scenery require regulatory, organizational and operational redesign in central bank perimeter. one of the most explicit responses of central banks to the digitalized and modern uptakes in the payment industry is the idea of launching cbdcs. currently, central bank 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches money for retail is available only in physical form - cash, but the rapid digitalization is underlining the risks of diminished use of cash and its role as a monetary anchor. to make sure that money supply remains in the hands of central banks, cbdcs are increasingly gaining prominence, in particular retail cbdc. according to the latest data 114 countries, representing over 95 percent of global gdp, are exploring a cbdc. three years ago, only 35 countries were considering a cbdc. eleven countries have fully launched a digital currency. in the g20 countries, 18 are now in the advanced stage of cbdc development. ecb plans to complete investigation phase by the end of this year. motivations for the issuance of cbdcs go beyond maintaining monetary sovereignty. it is also about strengthening monetary policy pass - through in digital era, combating the illicit use of money, strengthening competition for e - money payment providers, improving payments efficiency and safety, and promoting financial inclusion for underbanked citizens. of course, it does not come without risk
v k sharma : the framework for pre - empting systemic financial risks inaugural address by mr v k sharma, executive director of the reserve bank of india, at the world risk workshop 2012, organized by r - square risklab, mumbai, 6 february 2012. * * * the views expressed are those of the author and not of the reserve bank of india. for all the like - never - before - and - hopefully - never - after financial, fiscal, economic and social costs of the global financial crisis, the one perverse benefit of it, nevertheless, has been that it has tellingly focussed attention of global law and policy makers and head honchos of finance and banking industry, also like never before, on risk and the risk management imperative as also compelled a cathartic reappraisal of how risk should be defined and measured! as someone has famously said, what you cannot see, you cannot measure and what you cannot measure, you cannot manage. for such is the insidiousness of risk that its under - pricing is perceived as low, or no risk, and, therefore, policy makers, regulators, supervisors, economic agents including banks, business and industry are caught unawares and blind - sided when risk suddenly eventuates. however, before i take forward the subject - matter of risk identification, ( under - ) pricing, management, and prevention of future crises, it would only be appropriate that i deal, in some detail, with the genesis of the crisis. the recent financial crisis has thrown into sharp relief, as never before, the critical and important role of “ asset price ” inflation / asset bubbles also, as opposed to that of shop floor / products / services inflation alone, as a key variable, in monetary policy response. for what happened was unprecedented in that with monetary policy focussed only on traditional cpi, interest rates were kept low in spite of exploding prices of assets like real estate / property, credit assets, equity and commodities. and this was all made possible because of huge current account surpluses in china and other emes, and huge private capital inflows into emes in excess of their current account deficits, getting recycled back as official capital flows into government bonds of reserve currency countries, especially the usa, resulting in compression of long term yields which, in turn, translated into lower long term interest rates even for the riskier asset classes mentioned above. this chasing of yield, due to global savings glut, in turn

- with – apple basis ”. * * case - shiller us national home price index is published quarterly. the latest one is available up to quarter ended september 2011. the level of the index was compared with quarterly average of daily gold price since april 2000. bis central bankers ’ speeches
the exchange rate regime in sweden is today decided by the government, while the riksbank decides on issues concerning its implementation. if the government decides to join erm2, the swedish finance minister and the riksbank governor will be parties to a common accord with euro area finance ministers and the ecb on a central rate between the swedish krona and the euro in erm2. and it is on this occasion the important step is taken, meaning a modification of the monetary regime. there are no simple criteria for determining the most appropriate central parity rate. what the riksbank can do is to use the various models at our disposal and combine their results with expert knowledge and good judgement to try to narrow down a reasonable interval and analyse the consequences of different choices. all models and forecasts at the riksbank's disposal now suggest that the real exchange rate will appreciate in the coming years. the question is by how much. the different models give a wide range of estimates for the real appreciation, ranging from a few per cent up to 10 per cent from the current level. with the realistic assumption that inflation will be about the same in sweden as in the euro area in coming years, this implies an interval for the nominal sek / eur rate that extends from approximately 8. 20 to a little more than 9 kronor. even if the riksbank thus participates actively in the preparations for euro introduction it will not, as an independent and non - political institution, be actively involved in the referendum debate. in 1997, the riksbank's governing board took a decision in favour of early participation in the emu as a response to the government report on emu membership chaired by professor lars calmfors. however the present executive board has not taken any common position ahead of the referendum, although the personal views of several board members on emu are well publicised, including my own pro - euro stance. the euro area performance since 1999 and swedena€™s situation so what can we say about the state of the monetary union, some three years after its inception? let me first emphasize that three years is a very short time span to evaluate a project of this scale, not nearly enough for anyone to make an authoritative judgement. but, undoubtedly, for those who had great expectations regarding convergence, increased competition and higher productivity during these first three years the euro will have been a disappointment in some respects. many were hoping that the creation of the euro, with

stabilise the economy. the same could in fact be said about the euro area countries : with structural reforms and more solid foundations for fiscal policy, the present emu - countries would have much better possibilities for employment growth and productivity gains. monetary union is putting pressure on both industry and politicians to improve their performance in the years to come.
development of the banking system in the recipient country. and, here, the degree of confidence is key. iv. efforts to channel remittances through banks and other licensed or registered financial service providers are to be welcomed for several reasons. one important point is that the balance of payments can more accurately reflect economic transactions of migrants who are working abroad and transferring money home. therefore, we are ready to support initiatives to ensure that everybody has the possibility of transferring money home in an easily accessible, secure and efficient way. for example, the bundesbank took part in the task force on remittances set up by the committee on payment and settlement systems and the world bank. this task force agreed on “ general principles for international remittance services ”, which focus on payment system aspects. furthermore, we take part in international efforts to improve the data on remittances. my colleague jens walter pointed out this morning that the remittance market has to cope with various statistical problems. owing to the multitude of channels used for remittances, it remains difficult to capture the whole picture of personal cross - border remittances. the channels vary with respect to the country concerned and the individual remitter involved. in this regard, different demographic structures and financial systems of the residing and receiving countries, convenience and cost of the remitting method are important. owing to the – usually – small amounts remitted per transaction and the multitude of channels, the compilation of exact and complete statistics remains a difficult task. i am convinced that our conference will contribute to a better understanding of the economic role of remittances. remittance flows are an important and stable source of funds for many countries. they are a substantial part of financial inflows for countries with a large migrant labour force. although not all money transfers are captured in official statistics, formal remittances nevertheless constitute the second largest source of external funding for developing countries, exceeded only by foreign direct investments. they are ahead of both capital market flows and official development assistance. for some developing countries, remittances account for an even higher share than fdi. current trends suggest that remittance flows will continue to increase in the next few years. ladies and gentlemen, i firmly believe that this conference will help to make remittances easier, cheaper and more secure. even if germany offers the best possible conditions for sending remittances, improvements might still be needed in some receiving countries.

/ ssm. pr230320 ~ 9f0ae34dc5. en. html 2 the global economy : a delicate moment ( imf. org ) 5 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches
##irable outcome. if it results in a significant reduction in the inflation rate, it will represent a soft landing, which in turn opens up the opportunity for a reversal in the interest rate cycle. however, many unknowns stand in the way and ultimately, inflation outcomes will determine the monetary stance. iv. domestic inflation dynamics over the past year, the nature of inflation has changed in significant ways. chart 4 provides a broad picture of the dynamics. headline inflation began to accelerate in the second half of 2009 – 10, at a time when growth was still relatively sluggish. it stayed high through 2010 – 11, actually accelerating in the last quarter of the year. in the first two months of 2011 – 12, that pattern has persisted. however, the relative importance of the drivers of inflation clearly changed over the period displayed. food inflation was the predominant contributor in the early phase, but a resurgence of energy prices in the post - crisis environment began to play an increasingly important role. the prices of non - food manufactured products, which the rbi views as a reflection of demand pressures, began to rise noticeably in early 2010, but saw their rate of increase stabilize and even moderate somewhat in the third quarter of 2010 – 11. however, that pattern was short - lived and the rate of inflation for this category surged in the fourth quarter, a momentum that has clearly persisted into the current year. the changing contributions of different drivers are very sharply brought out in the decomposition exercise displayed in chart 5. the analysis looked at recent patterns in terms of three periods of roughly equal lengths over the past 14 months, beginning april 2010. in the first period, food and energy, reflecting classic supply - side forces, were the primary contributors to inflation. non - food manufacturing inflation, which, to the extent that it represents demand pressures, was not insignificant, suggesting that pricing power was present. in the second period, the weight of the contribution shifted dramatically towards commodities other than energy. the contribution from food moderated a bit, as did that from non - food manufacturing, suggesting that the pass - through or “ generalization ” risk was moderating. however, this pattern was short - lived. in the last period, energy returned as a major contributor and the sharp increase in the contribution of non - food manufacturing indicated that producers were able to pass on higher input costs without too much difficulty. the strength of the pass - through in this period indicated that demand conditions remained bis central bankers ’ speeches quite robust, even as some early

24 ; pp80 5 nabard annual report – 2023 - 24 ; pp10 6 nafpo. 2023. farmer producer organisations in india : state of sector report. national association of farmer producer organisations, new delhi. 7 agricultural statistics at a glance, 2022 6 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches
two decades, through the basel committee on banking supervision, to improve bank supervision and regulation. the revised capital accord, now almost fully developed, places much greater emphasis, implicitly and explicitly, on improved risk - management systems. all of this has the potential for placing even more responsibility on commercial banks for reducing both their own and systemic risk. most financial institutions will neither need nor be expected to achieve the complex risk - management practices required by the new basel accord for large, complex banking organizations, but their operations will not be unaffected. success, indeed survival, requires that we all adapt. the recent experience of the u. s. banking system suggests that it has begun to prepare itself for the task.

the wheel ” but those who are generally more competent at what they do. this also means keeping the risks of digitalisation in check, what should also be the benchmark for institutions. it is not individual ideas we are talking about, but a bank ’ s overall package – including risk management. thank you. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches