move away from the chf 1. 20 level until january 2013, in other words, after many months of declining risk premia. second, the swiss franc has not weakened fundamentally against the euro during the course of this year, although risk premia have declined further. nevertheless, many market participants expect a renewed depreciation in the swiss franc in view of the progress in the euro area. the value of the swiss franc is still high at present. as can be seen in chart 2, the trade - weighted, inflationadjusted exchange rate for the swiss franc, for instance, is currently about 10 % above its long - term average. the minimum exchange rate continues to prevent an undesired tightening of monetary conditions should the upward pressure on the swiss franc intensify once again in view of the current uncertainty. exceptional circumstances still apply for monetary policy clearly, exceptional circumstances still apply for monetary policy. this is the case not only for switzerland and the euro area, but also for the us, japan and the uk. as you know, the ecb reduced its refinancing rate by a further 25 basis points two weeks ago. in the us and japan, current quantitative easing measures are giving rise to a further expansion in central bank balance sheets. the fact that monetary policy in the advanced economies is likely to remain exceptionally expansionary for some time to come can be seen in market expectations for reference rates ( cf. chart 3 ). at the moment, the markets are assuming that the federal reserve will increase its key interest rate in the second quarter of 2015, the ecb in the fourth quarter of 2015 and the snb in the first quarter of 2016. last year, a number of central banks introduced the principle of forward guidance, in order to further increase the effectiveness of their expansionary monetary policy. forward guidance involves the provision of information on the expected movement of short - term interest rates. to some extent, information of this kind has already been provided by central banks in the past. what is new with forward guidance is that some central banks give an explicit indication of how long they expect low interest rates to continue. for instance, the federal reserve and the bank of england have tied the assessment of their respective reference rates to a threshold for the unemployment rate. at the moment, an intense debate is raging as to whether forward guidance can actually increase the effectiveness of monetary policy in a zero interest rate environment. what is crucial for the effectiveness of forward guidance is that

the models that underline that, you don ’ t take into account climate change. you ’ re missing a big chunk of the risks that are looming on the horizon and that will be upon us much quicker than we think. so if only in respect of that work, we must take climate change into account. added to that, when we invest, we have to be mindful as well and how we do that is being debated in our strategy review. plus when we do supervision and when we look at how banks are valuing their liabilities and their assets, we need to ask them whether they take climate change risk into account as well. so there are multiple ramifications where we need to ask ourselves : do i need to change? is climate change really part of my thinking? i will insist on that. at this moment, the british people are voting. how important is the outcome for europe? i think the outcome that will close the loop of uncertainty that we have lived with for the last couple of years is very important. business people and any economic actor, whether you ’ re in a family or whether you ’ re in enterprise, will tell you : “ i need to know where i stand and what is the environment where i will invest, operate in? if we don ’ t know, then we don ’ t invest. then we don ’ t create jobs, then we don ’ t trade ”. and that ’ s what has happened a little bit with the uk, because we didn ’ t know and we still don ’ t know to this day, what is the likely outcome. at the end of today we might know a little bit more. it won ’ t be final because we still have probably a transition period which needs to be gone through, but at least some clarity will emerge out of tonight, i hope. if boris johnson wins, brexit will happen. what will be the effect on the european economy? there will be negative consequences in the short term for all economies, predominantly the uk, and within the european union some countries will be more at risk than others. ireland is a case in point which will be sort of first affected. the netherlands might be affected as well because it has a close relationship with the uk. germany as well, the automotive industry. but clearly the major impact will be on the uk. mario draghi will go into history as the man who saved the euro. what would you like your legacy to be? i ’ m