christian noyer : economic and financial crisis – the post - g20 outlook speech by mr christian noyer, governor of the bank of france, at a luncheon organised by the hong kong general chamber of commerce, hong kong, 11 june 2009. * * * ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure for me to speak to you today. at a time when the regulation of the financial and banking sectors is being discussed in - depth, this meeting is a unique opportunity for exchanging our ideas and thoughts on the most topical issues. i would like to raise three questions that seem absolutely essential today, a couple of weeks after the g20 summit and the spring meetings of the imf. these three questions are the following : • what is the economic and financial outlook? • what type of financial regulatory framework are we moving towards? • how can we strengthen financial stability at the international level? what is the economic and financial outlook? after the recession that has been affecting the world economy since september 2008, the first signs of a recovery are being examined very closely. while in the first quarter output data confirmed a further decline at a similar or stronger pace than by end - 2008, survey indicators point to deceleration of the slowdown in the second quarter, which justifies cautious optimism. indeed, i see several reasons for hoping that “ the worst is behind us ”. the strength, the scope and the synchronisation of the crisis were exceptional and the risks that continue to weigh on the world economy should not be underestimated. the first wave of the crisis consisted in the drying - up of liquidity on financial markets, a collapse in confidence and world trade. although this first wave has not subsided, a second wave could hit the world economy. on the one hand, the feedback effects between the financial sector and the real economy would curb the availability of loans. on the other hand, the rise in unemployment, which lags the contraction in activity, may affect household consumption. however, the factors that lend support to a recovery are also significant. they stem not only from a natural rebalancing of the economy but also from an exceptional fiscal and monetary stimulus. firstly, disinflation, which has been more rapid than expected, boosts households ’ purchasing power and should partly offset the deterioration in the labour market. [ in the euro area, disinflation could result in a 3. 5 - point year - on - year increase in purchasing power in 2009 ; the

. in particular, this text will increase consumer confidence, while providing legal certainty for economic operators. this governance principle can be supplemented by three operational principles. first, using ai proportionately and progressively. with a simple rule : the more critical the use case for our activty, the more we have to do it ourselves. for institutions like ours, this goes to the fundamental issue of data : some of the data held by central banks and financial supervisors are too confidential to be stored on a thirdparty cloud infrastructure. second, experimenting without delay, even with simple use cases, to find the right way of integrating ai into our activity, leading to an " augmented agent " rather than a " substituted agent ". indeed, we can expect ai to significantly reshape the patterns of human - machine interactions. finding the right combinations will encourage the adoption of the new tools, by winning the buy - in of users, which is a crucial issue. third, collaborate with others, to share best operational practices and to build a coherent ai supervision framework. of course, i am thinking first of international cooperation, because ai - related issues are by their very nature global. in this area, while there may be nuances in terms of how to proceed, i note above all that many 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches jurisdictions are expressing similar concerns, which should enable international cooperation to move forward. but we also need to cooperate with authorities in other sectors, especially competition, cyber security, fundamental rights and even the green transition, as ai - related concerns are largely interconnected. in my view, these different forms of cooperation are an essential condition if we are to contribute to the emergence of the most relevant and resilient ai models, in other words, if we are to influence the development of the technology in the direction of the general interest. thank you for your attention. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches