above its potential growth rate throughout the projection period. the upside and downside risks to the bank ’ s baseline scenario regarding the economy mentioned in the outlook report include the following : ( 1 ) developments in exports ; ( 2 ) the effects of the consumption tax hikes ; ( 3 ) firms ’ and households ’ medium - to long - term growth expectations ; and ( 4 ) fiscal sustainability in the medium to long term. the bank assesses that these risks are balanced as a whole. as for my own overall risk assessment related to the economy, the downside risks remain somewhat greater than the upside ones, although the degree of downside risks has lessened to some extent compared to october 2013 and january 2014. first, there is the risk that the rate of increase in exports will be more moderate than projected. there is a possibility that the u. s. economic recovery pace will be slower than projected as a result of sluggish performance in the housing sector and relatively slow recovery in the employment conditions for long - term unemployed workers and involuntary part - time workers. tepid performance in emerging economies, disinflation in the euro area, and geopolitical problems should also be monitored closely. second, there is a risk of domestic private consumption becoming weaker. since it is estimated that the rate of nominal wage increases will remain below the cpi - based inflation ( including the effects of the consumption tax hikes ) throughout the projection period, it is possible that real income may decrease and that consumer sentiment as well as households ’ medium - to long - term expectations for growth and income may not improve. on this front, i disagreed four times in row with the bank ’ s risk assessment, which appeared in the public statements released after the monetary policy meetings ( mpms ) held in january through early april this year. this disagreement reflects my concerns that the public statements referred only to developments in overseas economies as a risk factor, and did not mention the pace of improvement in the employment and income situation in japan, even though it was pointed out in the october 2013 outlook report. however, the april 2014 outlook report clearly stipulates the effects of the consumption tax hikes as a risk factor by almost reinserting the related description included in the october 2013 outlook report. the current report also refers to consumer sentiment as an additional new factor ( as well as the employment and income situation and developments in prices ) with regard to the transmission channel of how the consumption tax hikes may affect private consumption. i take

year suggesting revisions to the text to make the report easier to understand for the public. on this, i am glad to note that my proposal in october was incorporated in the latest report. this revision also reflected my repeated suggestion over the past years to insert a brief summary of the report. the bank is now keen to steadily improve its communication, albeit at a rather gradual rate, particularly toward promoting the reader friendliness of its public documents. these improvements can be considered a good example of the bank achieving its intention to strengthen its external communication : this was incorporated in the bank ’ s strategic priorities for fiscal 2014 – 2018, released in late march 2014, which describes the basic principles of the bank ’ s business operations and organization. one of its key features is that the bank expressed that it will engage in bank - wide efforts to steadily fulfill its mission of expression seems more appropriate not only because it reflects my own outlook, but also because it is a better description of the bank's baseline scenario. regarding the latter, the median of the policy board members ’ forecasts of the inflation rate is 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2015 and 2. 1 percent for fiscal 2016 ; so the projected year of achieving “ 2 percent ” is fiscal 2016. given that the bank is committed to achieving “ 2 percent, ” it is better to provide a clear focus on the timing when 2 percent will be reached, rather than providing an expression of “ around 2 percent. ” bis central bankers ’ speeches achieving the price stability target of 2 percent ; the document gave priority to strengthening external communication to ensure broad public confidence. this new move reflects my call to place greater emphasis on external communication – stressed ever since i assumed my position as a policy board member. especially in light of achieving the 2 percent target, public understanding is indispensable. concrete actions specified in the report include the following : ( 1 ) making full use of information technology, for example through improvements to the bank ’ s web site, and enhancing the in - house tours of its head office and branches ; ( 2 ) strengthening the bank ’ s communication with various people, firms, and economic organizations ; ( 3 ) publishing the findings from its research and analysis in effective ways ; and ( 4 ) supporting the activities of the central council for financial services information and associated committees to promote financial literacy among the public. related departments of the bank have already prepared detailed plans to put the new strategic priorities into practice. accordingly, the bank will continue to do its best to implement