- 81 aug - 81 jun - 81 apr - 81 feb - 81 dec - 80 oct - 80 aug - 80 jun - 80 apr - 80 feb - 80 dec - 79 oct - 79 aug - 79 jun - 79 apr - 79 feb - 79 dec - 78 oct - 78 aug - 78 jun - 78 apr - 78 feb - 78 inflation including energy and food core inflation figure 9 : changes in performance due to policy source : cecchetti et al ( 2004 ), figure 4. figure 10 : indicators of long - term inflation expectations in the euro area 3. 0 3. 0 2. 5 2. 5 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 1. 5 1. 0 france ( 2013 maturity ) ( 1, 2 ) 1. 0 euro area ( 2012 maturity ) ( 1, 3 ) euro area ( 2015 maturity ) ( 1, 3 ) 0. 5 0. 5 spf consensus economics 0. 0 1999m01 0. 0 2000m01 2001m01 2002m01 2003m01 2004m01 2005m01 2006m01 the ten - year break - even inflation rate reflects the average value of inflation expectations over the maturity of the index - linked bond. it is calculated as the difference between the nominal yield on a standard bond and the real yield on an inflation index - linked bond, issued by the same issuer and with similar maturity. issued by the french government linked to the french cpi excluding tobacco. issued by the french government linked to the euro area hicp excluding tobacco. survey of professional forecasters conducted by the ecb on different variables at different horizons. participants are experts affiliated with institutions based with the european union. this measure of long - term inflation expectations refers to an annual rate of hicp expected to prevail five years ahead. survey of prominent financial and economic forecasters as published by consensus economics inc. this measure of long - term inflation expectations refers to an annual rate of inflation expected to prevail between six and ten years ahead.

alan greenspan : risk transfer and financial stability remarks by mr alan greenspan, chairman of the board of governors of the us federal reserve system, to the federal reserve bank of chicagoa€™s fourty - first annual conference on bank structure, chicago, illinois, ( via satellite ), 5 may 2005. * * * chicago is the birthplace of modern financial derivatives markets. so this conference seems an appropriate place in which to reflect once more on the prodigious growth of these risk - transfer instruments and their implications for financial stability. two years ago at this conference i argued that the growing array of derivatives and the related application of more - sophisticated methods for measuring and managing risks had been key factors underlying the remarkable resilience of the banking system, which had recently shrugged off severe shocks to the economy and the financial system. at the same time, i indicated some concerns about the risks associated with derivatives, including the risks posed by concentration in certain derivatives markets, notably the over - the - counter ( otc ) markets for u. s. dollar interest rate options. today i will pursue those concerns about concentration in greater depth, drawing on discussions that federal reserve staff have had with market participants. i will also address concerns that some observers have expressed about the use of credit derivatives to transfer risk outside the banking system and about the growing role of hedge funds in bearing risk in derivatives markets and the financial system generally. derivatives - potential benefits and risk - management challenges perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth. as a consequence of the increasing demand for these products, the size of the global otc derivatives markets, according to the bank for international settlements ( bis ), reached a notional principal value of $ 220 trillion in june 2004. indeed, the growth rate of the otc markets was more rapid in 2001 - 04 than over the previous three years. at the same time, the growth rate of exchange - traded derivatives exceeded the growth rate of otc derivatives over 2001 - 04. throughout the 1990s, the chicago futures and options exchanges debated whether the growth of the otc markets was good or bad for their markets. the data seem to have resolved that debate. in the united states, the commodity futures modernization act of 2000 has permitted healthy competition between the exchanges and the otc markets, and both sets of markets are reaping the benefits. the benefits are not limited to those that use derivatives. the use of a growing array of derivatives