benoit cœure : the consequences of protectionism panel contribution by mr benoit cœure, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the 29th edition of the workshop " the outlook for the economy and finance ", " villa d'este ", cernobbio, 6 april 2018. * * * in the two decades before the financial crisis, trade growth was a major contributor to higher living standards worldwide, with world imports growing at roughly twice the rate of output. the integration of many emerging economies into global trade, notably through participation in global value chains, boosted incomes and lifted millions of people out of poverty. since the crisis, however, trade has provided noticeably less support to economic growth. trade growth has barely kept pace with output growth, and has even lagged behind it in a number of years. as a result, the current economic expansion in the euro area has been driven largely by domestic demand, supported by substantial monetary policy accommodation. more recently, world trade has shown tentative signs of renewed vigour. last year, world goods trade grew by more than 5 %, the strongest rate for seven years, against less than 4 % for world gdp. yet, the nascent recovery in trade is at risk of being derailed by the introduction of impediments to global economic integration. there are signs that the anti - globalisation sentiment that has become more pervasive since the crisis has begun to be translated into actual policy measures. many commentators have expressed concerns that the tariffs recently announced by the us administration represent the first step towards a “ trade war ”, potentially leading to a broader reversal of globalisation. retaliatory measures have already been announced by some economies. these steps are taken despite the benefit of trade for aggregate welfare being one of the rare points of consensus for economists. in a recent poll in which economists were asked whether the announced tariffs would improve americans ’ welfare, the respondents were split between disagree and strongly disagree. 1 see university of chicago, igm economic experts panel : www. igmchicago. org / surveys / steeland - aluminum - tariffs? utm _ source = feedburner & utm _ medium = email & utm _ campaign = feed % 3a + igmforum + % 28igm + forum % 29 at the same time, the benefits of globalisation have not been spread evenly, neither across nor within countries, something that economists have not given sufficient consideration for a long time.

past labour market reforms have contributed to job creation and reduced unemployment. it is important that governments continue in this direction and do not reverse past reforms just at the point when they are starting to bear fruit. moreover, the governing council reiterates its full support for all efforts which foster market flexibility and enhance competition. this also applies to the agricultural markets. against the background of a marked increase in international food commodity prices, further liberalisation and reforms in eu agricultural markets would help to enhance their efficiency and benefit european consumers through lower prices. we are now at your disposal for questions.