of the national accounts ’ eyes before you change your view. all data are noisy, including the national accounts. by the time you have seen something in the national accounts and are sure it isn ’ t just noise, several quarters will have passed. if you wait that long, you will be well behind the curve in catching a change in economic momentum. portents for the future now that we ’ ve seen this pick - up in global activity, we must then ask : what next? will the 7 / 10 bis central bankers'speeches expansion continue at its current rate, pick up further, or peter out? part of the question here is whether expansions can continue unabated or whether something forces them to ‘ die of old age ’. while one could argue that this is a relatively new upswing, many economies have in fact been expanding ever since the end of the global financial crisis, and are now quite close to being at full capacity. countries such as the united states and japan are generally regarded as being already at full employment. does this mean that they can ’ t keep going like this for much longer? the academic literature, at least, seems to suggest that long - lived expansions are no more likely to end than shorter ones, at least beyond some point ( rudebusch 2016 ). i think we can take some comfort from that. we should then ask whether we would expect the current expansion to be any different from past expansions. a common pattern is that expansions end because they came together with an unsustainable build - up in leverage. globally, leverage does not seem to have increased much this time around. at least, it hasn ’ t increased to the extent seen in the leadup to the global financial crisis. of course there are some areas where debt has increased rapidly, in ways that deserve further investigation. whether credit expansions pose a problem isn ’ t always clear - cut, except in hindsight. so we should be cautious when we see them, and should factor them into our assessments of how long an expansion might last. in thinking about how long and how strong the global expansion could be, a lot will depend on productivity growth. this isn ’ t the place to dwell on the ‘ secular stagnation ’ debate in detail. but i will note that productivity itself can be cyclical. productivity growth has been weak in some major advanced economies. it ’ s not clear that this will continue once spare capacity in these economies has been fully absorbed

. it's intended to cover all of the wholesale fx industry. this is not a code of conduct for just the sell side. it is there for the sell side, the buy side, non - bank participants and the platforms ; its breadth is both across the globe and across the whole structure of the industry. the code is intended to apply to all aspects of the wholesale foreign exchange market. in the code itself, we spell out what we actually mean by the wholesale fx market. the one noteworthy part of the fx industry to which the code generally doesn't apply is the retail market, as that is generally governed by retail - specific regulation in the relevant jurisdiction. i am chairing this work, with simon potter of the federal reserve bank of new york leading the work on developing the code and chris salmon of the bank of england leading the adherence work. our working group comprises representatives of the central banks of all the http : / / www. bis. org / press / p150511. htm. bis central bankers ’ speeches major fx centres, drawing on the membership of the markets committee which is comprised of heads of the market operations areas of the 15 major currency areas. 2 given our roles, we are all very much interested in the effective functioning of the fx market. again, it is very much a global effort reflecting the global nature of the foreign exchange market. this work is also very much a public sector - private sector partnership. in that regard, we are being ably and vigorously supported in this work by a group of market participants, chaired by david puth, ceo of cls. the group contains people from all around the world, including australia, on both the buy side, including corporates and asset managers, and the sell side, along with trading platforms, ecns and non - bank participants, drawing from the various foreign exchange committees ( fxcs ) and beyond. hence all parts of the market are being involved in the drafting of the code to make sure all perspectives are heard and appropriately reflected. at the outset we decided to split the topics we intend to cover in the code into two parts. the first phase is the material we intend to put out in two months'time in may. it covers areas such as ethics, information sharing, execution ( including mark - up ) and confirmation and settlement. the second phase will cover topics such as governance, risk management and compliance, as well as further aspects of execution including e - trading and platforms ( including