see the economies would take off like a rocket and so you say inflation is going to accelerate really sharply. i ’ m sure models exist that would have that feature, but given the persistence of inflation, which many models don ’ t fully capture, we are saying we also need to see actual inflation, the outcomes, especially across the indicators ; especially we need to strip out the volatile elements sufficiently in the neighbourhood of where you want to get to. everyone ’ s going to agree : yes, it ’ s credible to say compared to where we are now, these forecasts you have, this 3 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches outlook assessment you have is credible. in order for rates to go up, you have to be forecasting inflation targets however you ’ re interpreting it at that point, and that has to be a credible forecast given that … lane : so, some people will say – you think – that the jump is too big. so, if inflation today is low and you forecast a high number two years from now, it ’ s fair to say, well, we ’ ve not seen it. we ’ re seeing inflation move maybe sometimes in an incremental way. so the connection between the outcome and the forecast is basically saying there ’ s a modelling error and maybe it ’ s safer to wait until the actual realised inflation is not too far away. it ’ s fantastic to have this conversation with you, just a few days after this major event, so thanks again for coming here. i know people in the audience are going to want to ask questions. i have a couple more things. when i listen to mario draghi and particularly the tone of the conversation around fiscal in the last couple of months, which has been slightly different from even his previous comments, and i look at your very explicit charts about the effect on the output gap in the eurozone, it seems to me that the ecb is saying : when it comes to next responding to the ups and downs of the cycle, potentially downs over the next few years, fiscal is the new monetary. is that right? lane : i don ’ t think that ’ s the way to think about it. i ’ ve skipped over it, as i was conscious it was running a bit long – but in the concluding section of the speech, which i ’ m sure is online by now on the ecb website, i do emphasise that our mandate is unconditional. we will do what it takes. whatever

4 ) a question on, there is a slight contrast in the guidance on rates and qe and the guidance on rates explicitly allows for cutting rates further. the guidance on qe doesn ’ t mention the potential for upping the pace of asset purchases. does that imply that the hurdle to increasing that pace as you have done in the past is quite high this time around? lane : to the last point, i ’ m pretty sure in the statement, the generic couple of sentences saying we stand ready to adjust all of our instruments as needed. so you ’ re over - reading, i think. equally, you ’ re over - reading, i think [ on question 3 ]. remember now we have a tltro rate as well. so when we think about the multiplicity of rates, you have many different rates. so it ’ s just seen as correct english to say the key ecb interest rates – it ’ s not some encoded signal about the mro. the whole question of how we think about the market reacting to our policy moves in turn begs the question : how do we think about the run - up to the meeting? how do we think that policy rates move beforehand? i don ’ t particularly think we ’ re like that. obviously, next time we have the possibility to look and review. trying to calibrate exactly – these are market - determined rates – so trying to exactly hit some perfect yield curve is not how we think about it. so i am not overly tracking the short - term movements you mentioned. because i would like to conclude that what we saw before the meeting, already the ten days before the meeting, there ’ d been quite a lot of movement. 5 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches so to us, it ’ s really … i tell you how the forecast process works, is essentially all of this converts into an overall picture. the big impact on the forecast is through lending rates. so we ’ d be looking at where are lending rates to the real economy? how are they responding to what ’ s happened? that ’ s really a big driver of the macro - forecast for the outlook of inflation. i know people in the market have a concern about all of these different segments, but i ’ m not overly concerned. what we do – so as policymakers, as the governing council – we ’ re focussed on what is the toolbox relevant for today. like any central bank, plenty of research is going on, on