continues to slow. rebounding automobile production should help prices for new and used cars continue to moderate as cars become more available. more broadly in the economy, profit margins may narrow as buyers become more price sensitive and pull back on spending. earnings calls from nonfinancial corporations already show increasing awareness of resistance to price increases. non - housing core services inflation is a broad category that accounts for more than half of the core pce index. inflation in that category looks quite persistent amid strong postpandemic demand for travel, dining out, and medical care. disinflation in these services will likely require some combination of slowing demand and further recovery in supply. one potential avenue of disinflation is that a decline in prices for some goods may help lower related services prices. for instance, an eventual retreat in car prices may feed into lower prices for car insurance, repairs, and rentals, reversing some of their increases over the past two years. 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches another potential source of disinflation is that wage growth has moderated somewhat, even as the labor market remains very strong by most measures. payroll employment growth was extraordinarily robust in january and february, unemployment remains near record lows, and job openings remain very elevated. nonetheless, there are some signs that the labor market is softening at the margin. the federal reserve board staff's measure of private employment using data from the payroll processing firm adp suggests that job gains slowed in january and february. job postings from indeed show a noticeable decline. and the quits rate has retraced more than half of its pandemic - era rise, falling steadily from a 3 percent peak in late 2021 to 2. 5 percent in january. that could be significant, as much of the surge in wage growth a year ago may have been driven by outsized wage gains of those changing jobs and by employers raising wages to retain existing workers. this wage moderation may partly reflect some improvement in labor supply. labor force participation edged up to 62. 5 percent in the most recent data. prime - age participation is now back to pre - pandemic levels. in addition, new estimates show higher population growth over the past year amid a rebound in immigration. over time, there is reason to believe that rising productivity also may aid supply. i see three potential sources of rising productivity growth. first, increased innovation associated with the spurt of new businesses since the onset of

lisa d cook : the us economic outlook and monetary policy speech by ms lisa d cook, member of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the 2023 midwest economics association 87th annual meeting, cleveland, ohio, 31 march 2023. * * * thanks to president kasey buckles and the program committee for affording me the opportunity to give the c. woody thompson memorial lecture. it is a pleasure to be back in the midwest. before joining the federal reserve, i taught economics at michigan state university, which i chose for its bird's - eye view of the industrial midwest. big 10 rivalries aside, ohio and michigan share quite a lot, including many of the same economic concerns and interests. today i would like to outline my views on the trajectory of u. s. economic developments and what they imply for the appropriate path of monetary policy. 1 this is an especially challenging time to be an economic analyst or policymaker. recent developments in the banking sector have added to existing uncertainties about recovery from the pandemic shock and developments abroad. in that context, the economic and policy outlook needs to balance data dependence with forward - looking analysis. recent data show greater momentum in inflation and economic activity, but recent banking developments may suggest greater headwinds for financial conditions and the economy going forward. the u. s. economy assessing the current state of the economy requires revisiting the pandemic and its economic repercussions. from the perspective of the nber business cycle dating committee, the 2020 recession was unprecedented. of the 35 recessions since 1858, only 8 spanned months in the single digits from peak to trough. the one in 2020 was severe, but it spanned only two months from peak to trough and was the shortest recession on record. however, the pandemic's economic effects reverberated through 2021 and 2022. inflation surged during the recovery amid pandemic - induced disruptions to supply, while demand for goods was boosted by a shift away from in - person services, and overall demand was supported by monetary and fiscal policy. russia's invasion of ukraine in february 2022 was a further supply shock to the global economy, driving up prices for energy and other commodities. last june, u. s. inflation hit a peak of 7 percent as measured by the 12 - month change in the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) index. in response, the federal reserve has been using its monetary policy tools to restore price