out in order to understand how vulnerable the system is to a specific shock and the extent to which the shock will be contagious. the input of research has been invaluable in guiding central banks and the output of the macroprudential research network ( or mars as it was known ) was surely vital in helping central banks get macroprudential regulation up and running. at the same time as research has been progressing, the institutional structure of regulation and supervision has also undergone considerable reform. the european systemic risk board was created in the wake of the global financial crisis following the recommendations of the high level group chaired by jacques de larosiere. the de larosiere report focused on the need to move beyond microprudential supervision and give due attention to ensuring the stability of the financial system as a whole. as part of the process of implementing its recommendations, macroprudential regulation became a central bank core task. the research conducted in fora such as this one provides valuable inputs to this work. we have also seen major changes in the area of microprudential supervision with agreement on 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches the goal of european banking union and the creation of the single supervisory mechanism and the single resolution mechanism. the single supervisory mechanism seeks to provide a consistent method of supervising 120 significant european banks. once again research input is crucial to building up that method. to reap the full benefits of these institutional changes, it is important that the banking union be completed by creating a common deposit insurance scheme and setting up a credible common fiscal backstop to the single resolution fund that underlies the single resolution mechanism. perhaps strengthening the financial resources of the esm could provide a way forward in this respect. research clusters were only recently set up by the heads of research in order to encourage interaction and collaboration between escb researchers working on fields of common interest. it is planned that each research cluster will have an annual workshop where papers, selected on the basis of academic quality, will be presented and discussed. the workshops will provide an opportunity for researchers from national central banks and the ecb to get together and discuss advances in their respective fields – something that will have particular benefits for researchers who work in smaller central banks. i trust that you will find the atmosphere at the first workshop of this cluster conducive to encouraging such cooperation in order that policy in this area can move forward. if the global financial crisis has taught us anything it is surely that we, as central bankers,

crisis driven mainly by sizeable fiscal deficits and the domestic currency depreciations vis - a - vis the us. 3. 2 brexit as far as brexit is concerned, with the deadline approaching, financial services firms have no choice, but to continue preparing for the worst outcome ( " no deal " ), hoping for the best. the closer we get to 29 march without a deal, the more business from the city of london will be transferred and staff either hired locally or relocated. many companies have already confirmed they are moving or adding staff and / or operations elsewhere. it has been projected that up to 7, 000 jobs may relocate from the city to dublin and paris, and more firms will relocate to new york, so why not also to singapore? following the heavy defeat of pm may ’ s eu withdrawal agreement at the house of commons on tuesday 15 / 1, there are now four possible brexit scenarios : 1. a delayed brexit 2. no - deal brexit 3. a second referendum and 4. a general election. i am probably not the ideal person to project on the final outcome, although i have lived in the uk for more than a decade. the british are probably the most sophisticated electorate in europe, but for me as a pro - european, all i can say is that even great nations sometimes make mistakes. having said that, i have confidence in british diplomacy and uk institutions, so no matter what, the uk will face economic hardship in the short - term, but in the medium - term the country, including the city of london as a major financial center, will not only sail through, but also thrive. 3. 3 european elections 2019 is a year of multiple elections in the eu, the most significant of which is the vote for the new european parliament, without the uk. there are three risks arising, first of all, from the electoral uncertainty and what kind of a parliamentary formation will come out of the european elections, from migration, a risk which is also linked with the general situation in terms of geopolitics in our continent and beyond and, last but not least, populism. next may ’ s elections for the new european parliament are going to be the litmus test of populist strength. if the ruling class and mainstream political parties do not show evidence that they have truly heard the message from ordinary people on the street ( who are worried about migrants and jobs ), the electorate will want to