are no economic causes for armed aggression within a world of free trade and free enterprise. ” 2 both kant and mises also stressed the importance of another condition for peaceful coexistence : political democracy. mises, however, explained that in “ a world of growing government power, there exist economic causes of war. ” as a case in point, he mentioned governments of commodity - producing countries arranging a cartel to monopolize markets. mises acknowledged that “ the wars of the twentieth century have been, to be sure, economic wars. but they have not been caused by capitalism, ” but by subordinating businesses under government control – which in turn might have been influenced by a “ military - industrial complex, ” one might add. he concludes – and this is where it gets very topical : “ [ … ] the policy of aggression and conquest is self - defeating. even if technically successful in the short run, it would never attain in the long run the ends at which the aggressors are aiming. ” this leads me to my second point, the economic consequences of war. military conflict usually benefits only a few individuals and companies, while inflicting suffering on the vast majority. wars might not immediately trigger a recession because, initially, stepped - up arms production and military spending may even fuel economic expansion. in welfare terms, however, war is more likely to have a negative impact on household spending, as a bigger portion of gdp is channeled into ( rather unproductive ) investment. as aggregated demand increases and bottlenecks emerge in the supply of sought - after products, inflation increases too. in the medium term, this hampers business and consumer confidence, which eventually dampens growth. historically, high inflation has mainly been a consequence of war3, and has also led to the establishment of central banks to address money and financial instability. 4 in ukraine, where the war has exclusively been taking place, the economy is in a deep recession, due to the enormous damage and cost of the war. the vienna institute for international economic studies expects the country ’ s gdp to slump by about one - third compared to 2021. the ukrainian economy might, however, grow again in 2023. 5 in contrast, the economy of the aggressor has proved more resilient than projected. it is taking western sanctions longer than expected to bite. still, russian gdp is set to contract by 3. 5 % this year and by a similar amount next year, when

and catalyst for structural changes. despite more exchange rate volatility ahead, we could seize this opportunity to strengthen the fundamentals of the economy and reap long - term benefits that are likely to be greater than short - term costs of adjustment. for the banking sector, having a competitive and efficient banking sector is of extreme importance in the world where competition is borderless. for this, the bank of thailand is ready to provide an enabling environment for the thai financial sector. today, the bank of thailand has embarked on several important measures to enhance efficiency, strength and access of the thai banking system. new banking licenses were granted, including new subsidiary license for foreign commercial banks who want to operate their businesses in thailand. this should further increase competition, thereby raising the efficiency of the financial system. in addition, the bank of thailand has liberalized the opening of branches of thai banks to allow them more flexibility in managing branch network and reducing costs. further financial liberalization to facilitate regional integration is also considered. the asean central banks are negotiating the common standard of qualified asean banks ( qabs ). this will allow awarded banks to operate on a region - wide basis. and along with more liberalization, the bank of thailand has ensured that financial institutions are stable. so even though the thai banking sector is already well - equipped with capital and sound positioning, the bank of thailand has strengthened their capital bases earlier this year, following basel iii, and in line with international standard. as we already know, the payment and settlement systems are the backbone of the modern economy. in this regard, the bank of thailand has laid down financial market infrastructure to facilitate business operations. this year the imaged cheque clearing and archive system ( icas ) coverage will be expanded across the country to speed up the provincial cheque collection and clearing. this will help promote a more efficient payment system, enabling fast, safe, and secure financial transactions. the bank of thailand also encourages the use of electronic payment by coordinating with relevant parties to build infrastructure to facilitate this process. concluding remarks ladies and gentlemen, despite many roles that the bank of thailand plays in ensuring economic and financial stability, i would like to say that the bank of thailand ’ s policy alone cannot ensure sustainable economic growth. given thailand ’ s structural shortcomings, there is the need to improve thailand ’ s infrastructure and productivity, by improving technology and innovation. the well - being workforce and quality of education and training are also crucial to increasing competitiveness. for this, long