in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) were 0. 8 percent for fiscal 2015, 2. 0 percent for fiscal 2016, and 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2017 ( chart 5 ). although the timing of reaching around 2 percent depends on developments in crude oil prices, it is projected to be around the first half of fiscal 2016, assuming that crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent level. thereafter, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi is likely to be around 2 percent on average. concluding remarks in conclusion, let me touch on the economy of hokkaido prefecture. the economy has been recovering moderately, although some weakness has been observed in some aspects, such as the public construction sector, which largely affects small firms. turning to final demand, there are somewhat weak developments in terms of the bis central bankers ’ speeches decline in public investment, but a marked increase in the number of foreign visitors to japan has been underpinning demand. moreover, over the period of more than a year since the consumption tax hike, even durable consumer goods and housing investment have started to level off. meanwhile, as seen in the steady improvement in the employment and income situation, a virtuous cycle from income to spending has been operating in the region in the same way as in japan as a whole. in hokkaido prefecture, there are plenty of topics associated with encouraging tourism. for example, yoichi city became the setting for massan, a morning drama serial by japan broadcasting corporation ( nippon hoso kyokai, nhk ). in addition, the hokkaido shinkansen will commence its operation by march 2016, and it is scheduled to be extended to sapporo city. these topics show that hokkaido prefecture will receive further attention going forward. moreover, sapporo city has announced its intention to bid for the 2026 winter olympics, and this will increase the opportunity for hokkaido prefecture to display to the world its appeal. other than tourism, hokkaido prefecture has strength in the food industry on the back of its abundant agricultural and fishery resources. i have heard that hokkaido prefecture now faces problems such as lower production of raw milk resulting from increasing abandonment of farming as well as slack in unloading in the fishing industry, but i expect that production of higher value - added goods will be promoted through efforts such as healthy - do, which is the certification system of functional food that the hokkaido government is making efforts to popularize. other initiatives include promoting hokkaido prefecture as a back - up base for

about how tighter financing conditions will affect the economy, and whether the effects will be stronger or weaker than in the past. firms have not faced a steep rise in funding costs for more than a decade, while the economy has changed considerably in that time – and may still be changing after the pandemic. this means that we need to observe closely the impact of our measures over time. we might already be seeing some early indications of their effects across sectors. a marked divergence has emerged between manufacturing activity, which looks to be contracting, and services, which are expanding – especially in the leisure and tourism sectors. this can largely be explained by continued reopening effects : people are consuming more of the services they were denied during the pandemic, such as travel and eating out, while spending less on goods that they stocked up on during lockdowns. but monetary policy may also be playing a role. tighter financing conditions may already be constraining households ’ total spending, forcing them to substitute between sectors. and spending on durable goods is likely to be more affected by higher financing costs, as some of these are typically bought on credit. by contrast, for this summer at least, our consumer surveys show that tighter monetary policy is not going to affect people ’ s holiday plans. as our rate increases percolate through the economy, we will get a clearer picture of how much the tightening we have already done is biting – and how much more is needed to ensure that inflation is decisively squeezed out of the economy. conclusion let me conclude. the motto of the sparkassen is “ weil ’ s um mehr als geld geht ”. and this, in many ways, also applies to the ecb. our job is to create money and to preserve its value. but we do so because, in the long run, price stability produces the best and fairest outcomes for people and businesses. today, to return to my analogy, the airplane is still climbing – and it will keep going until we have enough speed to glide sustainably and land at our destination. but the reaction function we have laid out will help to strike the right balance for our monetary policy decisions in the future : between further tightening to tame inflation on the one hand and uncertainty about the speed and strength of policy transmission on the other. one thing, however, is certain : we will keep moving forward – determined and undeterred – until we see inflation returning to our 2 % medium - term target in