to its pre - pandemic growth path. the number of vacant jobs is at its peaks. high demand for labour resources is demonstrated by companies in construction and transport, a whole range of manufacturing enterprises, and in trade. these are the industries that started to bounce back earlier and were recovering faster and where demand exceeds prepandemic levels. a further expansion of output is possible through a restoration of the inflow of labour migrants, but — first of all — through an increase in labour productivity. this all means that after the rebound of the economy completes, it will develop more smoothly, at a more gradual pace, as compared to the recovery growth of output observed over the last 12 months. in a situation when companies experience a shortage of workers or components, monetary policy measures promoting demand will not increase output or consumption. for instance, if the demand for cars rises even more, this will not boost their output, when there are no parts, but will only increase the queues for them and speed up price growth. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches as regards inflation, it is above the forecast rate, and inflation expectations remain high. in august, annual inflation was 6. 7 %. according to the steady indicators of inflation measuring the inflation rate without volatile components, inflationary pressure continued to considerably exceed our target in both august and early september. indeed, inflation is impacted by multiple factors that do not depend on our monetary policy. the most important of them are world commodity prices, the country ’ s fruit and vegetable harvest, and bottlenecks in global supply chains ( container shipments, microcircuit manufacture, etc. ). it has been stated recently that these factors should be completely ignored if monetary policy cannot influence them. this opinion leaves out one essential circumstance, namely, the fact that all these factors impact inflation expectations which, in turn, influence consumers ’ sentiment and behaviour. hence, they drive inflation across a wide range of products. higher inflation expectations boost demand and increase the extent of the pass - through of higher costs to consumers. as a result, companies have the opportunity to almost completely pass costs to prices and thereby maintain or even increase their profits, which in turn discourages them to take efforts in order to reduce costs and improve labour productivity. monetary policy should prevent the inflationary spiral from getting out of control. therefore, it should respond to transitory factors to the extent they transform into steady factors through higher inflation expectations. this is especially relevant when households ’ inflation expectations and

- side risks, logistics problems and bottlenecks in production chains remain a significant risk as these issues may persist longer than we estimate today. the abovementioned problem of a limited availability of labour resources is another risk, which is becoming increasingly important. moreover, this problem may become even more serious. this is equally relevant for both the russian labour market and the constraints experienced by other economies. a decline in global demand due to a slowdown in the world economy may become a disinflationary risk. this may happen, for instance, in the case of a large - scale new wave of the pandemic, accompanied by extensive lockdowns in the majority of countries. another scenario where inflationary pressure might also weaken faster in the russian economy is a quick easing of the restrictions on foreign travel for both outbound tourism and the inflow of labour migrants. there is a number of factors, the potential impact of which is uncertain today. in the first place, these are the volumes and quality of the grain and vegetable harvest this year both in russia and worldwide. moreover, it is still uncertain how steady global inflation is and how fast and extensively other central banks will respond to it. winding up, i would like to comment on our future actions. we hold open the prospect of further key rate rises at the upcoming meetings. we will assess whether it is reasonable to increase the key rate, as well as how long the key rate should be maintained at the level achieved taking into account economic developments, inflation trends, and largely the balance of risks to future inflation, including those associated with persistently elevated inflation expectations. in addition to the baseline scenario, we also consider various other scenarios of potential developments in the russian and global economies. the three scenarios describing the key possible circumstances in the external environment were released last week in the monetary policy guidelines for the next three years. monetary policy will be able to bring inflation back to the target regardless of whether the baseline or an alternative scenario materialises. thank you all for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches