##3. results of the bsp ’ s survey of private sector economists showed their mean inflation forecast at 4. 4 percent for 2021. most economists saw the risks to the inflation outlook for 2021 as tilted to the upside due to persistent supply disruptions and rising global oil prices. nevertheless, for 2022 and 2023, economists expect inflation settling within target at 3. 5 and 3. 1 percent, respectively. liquidity in the financial system remains ample. domestic liquidity expanded by 8. 3 percent year1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches on - year to p14. 8 trillion in november 2021, extending an uptrend since july. as i mentioned, the various liquidity - easing measures of bsp have injected some 2. 3 trillion pesos into the financial system, the equivalent of 12. 5 percent of gdp. meanwhile, outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of reverse repurchase placements with the bsp, increased at a faster rate of 3. 5 percent year - on - year in october from 2. 7 percent in september. the continued recovery in bank lending activity reflects the sustained expansion in business activity amid easing quarantine restrictions, declining covid - 19 cases, and increased vaccinations. the country ’ s external sector continues to provide sufficient buffers to ward off the potential adverse effects of external headwinds. our gross international reserves, which stood at us $ 107. 7 billion as of end - november 2021, continue to provide ample cushion against unforeseen demand for foreign exchange liquidity. this is equivalent to 10. 2 months ’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. it is also about six to nine times the country ’ s short - term external debt, based on residual and original maturity, respectively. amid the strong rebound in external demand in key trade partners, the country ’ s exports of goods increased by 16 percent in january to september 2021. meanwhile, following the gradual resumption of domestic economic activities and restocking of inventories, imports of goods grew at a much faster rate of 30. 2 percent in the same period. this resulted in a wider trade deficit of us $ 36. 6 billion and has caused the overall balance of payments ’ position to the reversal of the deficit of us $ 665 million in the first nine months of 2021, from a us $ 6. 9 billion surplus in the same period last year. the country ’ s external sector remains supported by

have benefits for everyone. of course, it is clearly impossible to coordinate the y2k activities of millions of individual establishments. to help fill this void, numerous organizations have emerged as clearinghouses of information, and other institutions and consortiums are functioning as vehicles for system testing. the federal reserve, for instance, has established an extensive, separate and dedicated computer environment for the purpose of testing with its depository institution customers, and as we speak the securities industry is undergoing a five - week long series of tests to assess its ability to conduct business through its network of institutions. bank supervisors, including the federal reserve, are holding their banks accountable for the effectiveness of their y2k efforts, and i can assure you that there will be regulatory consequences for banks that do not fulfill their obligations. but many other organizations are on their own to test their critical systems with their key suppliers and customers. because this situation is ubiquitous, complex, and fragmented, it is a very difficult task to quantify the aggregate costs of y2k remediation. similarly and perhaps more importantly, we also have no national scorecard on how effective our economy is being in our remediation efforts, and until quite recently very little national preparedness information at all. under these circumstances, it is not hard to understand why the millennium bug is viewed as such as unpredictable phenomenon, and why it has attracted so much gloom and doom commentary. so, what is being done? the short answer is a great deal is being done. in january the president ’ s commission on the year 2000 issued the first of its promised quarterly assessments of the state of preparation in our country and internationally. more recently we have had helpful assessments from the congress and various security analysts. from these and other sources, let me review for you our understanding of the status of efforts by the private sector, government entities, and the world community to deal with the year 2000 problem. as far as the private sector is concerned, efforts to deal with the millennium bug have been steadily intensifying and are now proceeding very rapidly. i think it is a good sign that in the last few days articles have been appearing in the business press that the numerous y2k remediation boutiques which sprang up over the past two years are beginning to experience a slowdown in activity and are starting to look for other things to do. in congressional testimony last spring, i suggested that the private sector might spend approximately $ 50 billion between 1998 and 2000 to tackle the y2k