the economy will return to positive growth from fiscal 2010 to fiscal 2011. 5 if we regard the level of gdp at its most recent peak marked in fiscal 2007 as 100, then the level of gdp is likely to be 94 in fiscal 2009, 95 in fiscal 2010, and still only 97 in fiscal 2011. global structural adjustments, rather than a passing phase of a regular business cycle, lie behind the current global economic downturn. during the worldwide boom after 2002, various imbalances or excesses were accumulated on a global scale, and the difficulties in adjusting these imbalances are currently stifling the global economic recovery. for more details, see the speech “ recent economic and financial developments and the conduct of monetary policy ” i delivered at a meeting with business leaders in nagano in july 2009, a summary of which is available on the bank ’ s web site. according to the world economic outlook released by the international monetary fund ( imf ) in january 2010, the year - on - year growth rate of the world economy decelerated to 3. 0 percent in 2008, from much higher rates of around 5 percent a year between 2002 and 2007. although the growth rate plunged to minus 0. 8 percent in 2009, the largest negative growth since world war ii, it is projected to recover to a positive rate of 3. 9 percent in 2010 and 4. 3 in 2011. japan ’ s exports depend on the situation in overseas economies. as mentioned later, it is highly uncertain as to whether they will continue recovering. however, the organisation for economic co - operation and development ( oecd ) composite leading indicator and the new orders index within the manufacturing ism report on business released by the institute for supply management in the united states, both of which are regarded as leading indicators of japan ’ s exports, continue to show improvements. i believe that exports are likely to continue increasing, at least for the time being. comparing the recent levels of production, the real gdp growth rate, and exports with those before the january – march quarter of 2008, they are at the levels reached in the first half of the 2002, 2005, and 2006 calendar years, respectively. every april and october, the bank releases its outlook for economic activity and prices ( the outlook report ), and in the intervening january and july makes interim assessments of the outlook laid out in the outlook report. in the interim assessment made in january 2010, the policy board members took the view that growth prospects remain broadly unchanged compared with

' s large - scale stimulus measures. meanwhile, exports are expected to follow a moderate upward trend on the back of improvement in overseas economies. reflecting this outlook, japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential through the projection period. looking at the medians of the policy board members'forecasts in the january 2017 outlook report, the real gdp growth rate is projected to be 1. 4 percent for fiscal 2016, 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2017, and 1. 1 percent for fiscal 2018 ( chart 4 ). let me explain the outlook in detail by major component. as for business fixed investment, with some time lag, the past slowdown in emerging economies and yen appreciation are likely to exert downward pressure for the time being, mainly in manufacturing firms. however, throughout the projection period, it is likely to continue to see a moderate uptrend. this is because, in a situation where extremely stimulative financial conditions - - such as low interest rates and accommodative lending attitudes - - have been maintained, fixed investment will be positively affected by the effects of fiscal measures including projects conducted under the fiscal investment and loan program and tax reductions for capital investment, as well as by moderate improvement in growth expectations. moreover, corporate profits are projected to improve, but even if they become weaker than expected to some degree, business fixed investment is likely to be supported in particular by investment ( 1 ) in redevelopment projects in view of the 2020 tokyo olympics, ( 2 ) in research and development for growth areas, ( 3 ) in labor - saving machinery and equipment in order to deal with labor shortages, and ( 4 ) for maintenance and replacement of equipment to address deterioration from aging. private consumption is expected to increase moderately, supported by a steady improvement in employee income, as well as the wealth effects stemming from a rise in stock prices and the effects resulting from the set of stimulus measures. housing investment is likely to continue improving. exports will likely continue their pick - up trend for the time being, as the effects of the slowdown in emerging economies wane, and thereafter are projected to increase moderately. this is because it is forecasted that the growth rate of the world trade volume will accelerate gradually with the further recovery in overseas economies, and that japan's share of exports will increase moderately, due in part to a worldwide recovery in the sector of capital goods. industrial production is projected to increase modestly, reflecting a rise in demand at home