per barrel in the next three years. according to our preliminary estimates, the expansion of oil output under the new opec + agreements will add about 0. 1 pp to gdp growth this year and 0. 2 – 0. 3 pp next year. another important growth driver is domestic demand, including both consumer and investment demand. considering these trends, we have revised our economic growth forecast for this year upwards from 3 – 4 % to 4 – 4. 5 %. after the recovery, the economy will expand at a pace close to its potential. we forecast that gdp will equal 2 – 3 % in the next two years. the possibility to achieve higher economic growth rates will depend both on the expansion of production and logistics capacities and on labour resources, their expertise and performance. t hird. monetary conditions have been progressively adjusting to the earlier increases in the key rate, but are still accommodative. the yield curve of federal government bonds, which is used by banks as a benchmark for the interest rates they set for their clients, has significantly increased for maturities of up to three years, while staying almost unchanged in the long end. the rise in short - term yields reflects both our recent decisions and market expectations regarding the future key rate path. shifts in long - term yields are minor. among other things, this is an evidence of market participants ’ confidence that monetary policy will finally bring inflation back to the target. i would like to reiterate that these are long - term interest rates, rather than our key rate as such ( as is often stated ), that determine the affordability of credit for companies ’ investment purposes and of mortgage loans. as compared to yields on federal government bonds, interest rates on loans and deposits have responded more slowly and rose less significantly. our today ’ s decision is aimed at accelerating this process. an increase in interest rates will help restore households ’ propensity to save. growth in retail and corporate lending is close to its highest rates recorded in recent years. many borrowers seek to take out loans as soon as possible at lower interest rates. we have raised our lending growth forecast for this year. mortgage lending will continue to expand fast, while slightly decelerating after the amendments to the subsidised mortgage lending programme become effective. speaking of unsecured consumer lending, we can already observe the first signs of overheating. this lending segment has been growing faster than we forecast in april. on 1 july, we returned risk weights for

assess how our earlier decisions have been influencing monetary conditions, aggregate demand, and inflation. we will also consider how quickly supply - side constraints have been weakening and, accordingly, what level of the key rate is needed to bring inflation back to the target. according to our revised forecast, the average key rate next year will equal 6. 0 – 7. 0 % per annum. further on, as inflation expectations go down and inflation decelerates, the key rate will return to its long - term neutral range. we still estimate this neutral range to be at 5 – 6 %, provided that inflation is close to the bank of russia ’ s target of 4 %. thank you all for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches