a moderate increase as overseas economies move out of their deceleration phase. thus, japan ’ s economy is likely to be on a moderate expanding trend. according to the bank ’ s july 2016 outlook for economic activity and prices ( hereafter the outlook report ), the medians of the policy board members ’ forecasts for the economic growth rate are 1. 0 percent for fiscal 2016, 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2017, and 0. 9 percent for fiscal 2018, and the economy is expected to continue growing at a pace above its potential through the projection period. 2. prices next, i will talk about price developments. the year - on - year rate of increase in the consumer price index ( cpi ) for all items less fresh food and energy has decelerated somewhat recently, as firms ’ price - setting stance has become relatively cautious against the background of relatively weak developments in some indicators of private consumption. the rate of change for all items less fresh food has been slightly negative. looking at annual price changes across all cpi items less fresh food, the share of price - increasing items minus the share of price - decreasing items has maintained its historically high level, but is declining slightly at present. with regard to the outlook, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) is likely to be slightly negative or about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices, and, as the underlying trend in inflation steadily rises, accelerate toward 2 percent. meanwhile, assuming that crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent level, the baseline scenario is that the timing of the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi reaching around 2 percent will be during fiscal 2017, although this is accompanied by considerable uncertainties including those surrounding overseas economies going forward. specifically, the medians of the policy board members ’ forecasts of the yearon - year rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) presented in the july 2016 outlook report are 0. 1 percent for fiscal 2016, 1. 7 percent for fiscal 2017, and 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2018. 1 individual policy board members made their forecasts assuming that dubai crude oil prices would rise moderately from the recent 45 u. s. dollars per barrel to around 50 dollars per barrel toward the end of the projection period ; that is, fiscal 2018. under this assumption, the contribution of energy prices to the year - on - bis central

jorgovanka tabakovi : a new global context - challenges of an uncertain future speech by dr jorgovanka tabakovi, governor of the national bank of serbia, at the 31st kopaonik business forum, kopaonik, 4 march 2024. * * * slides accompanying the speech esteemed members of the government, representatives of the diplomatic corps, members of the business community, fellow economists, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, how much is the ideal from the famous sentence worth today : " government of the people, by the people, for the people "? it is a sentence of abraham lincoln on the new birth of freedom in his gettysburg address, delivered in 1864 in honour of the soldiers who fell at gettysburg in one of the decisive battles of the american civil war. today we speak about the challenges of an uncertain future, though future is always uncertain. however, we live in a time when the past is uncertain too and is often intentionally falsified in order to use that fake money to buy believers for new theories to which real money and real values need to be redistributed. in december last year, we celebrated 150 years of the serbian dinar as the national currency. marking that important anniversary, i said that few nations in the world can boast of having a currency of their own for a century and a half. in addition to the conventional national symbols - coat of arms, flag and anthem, the spirit and strength of a country are made up of its tradition, culture and national currency. the duration of these state symbols is an indicator of how long - lasting, how stable and how enduring a nation is. they are a reflection of the history and achievements of a nation, and they are of essential importance for its sovereignty and reputation in the world. no matter what we discuss during these three days, it will all be pointless if a part of our people does not have the right to their own currency and basic means of livelihood. no one has the right to deny our people the right to their own currency, nor the right to live in peace, and this calls for the response of each and every person and institution in order to have a future at all! it is easy to remain untouchable and lofty, to not get involved in the problem, to stand aside, to dispense advice, to stand up and preach, to confidently talk about theory. it is easy to flaunt your moral convictions, to