replaced over time by new firms exporting new goods and services. as a consequence, the composition of canada ’ s exports has also changed since the crisis. exports of services in categories such as technical, travel, financial and management services, have taken the lead, while some traditional goods, such as motor vehicles and parts, have seen their shares decline. by mid - 2016, non - energy exports had fully recouped their previous drop, and today, total exports are almost 10 per cent above their pre - crisis peak. monetary policy has played a key role in this adjustment. we estimate that if we had not lowered our policy rate in 2015, the economy would be roughly 2 per cent smaller today — a difference of almost $ 50 billion — and there would be about 120, 000 fewer jobs. government fiscal stimulus measures also contributed importantly to growth, and this has meant a better mix of monetary and fiscal policy. without this fiscal stimulus, interest rates would have had to have been even lower than they were. all things being equal, this would have meant even more household debt and an increased longer - term vulnerability for the economy. as we look ahead, we project that business investment will be a key driver of economic growth. business investment has also been slower to materialize than we expected, but it has been strong across the board over the first half of this year. further, in our most recent bos, our regional staff found that companies were more focused on expanding capacity than they were previously. indeed, businesses across an increasing range of sectors say they expect sales growth to improve further, and hiring intentions have reached a record high. given all this evidence, we could see by the beginning of summer that the economy ’ s adjustments to lower oil prices were essentially complete. to be clear, the impact of the shock was still visible in energy - intensive areas of the country. but this was being offset at the macro level by greater strength in other areas. so, in july, and again earlier this month, we raised our key policy interest rate. between those two rate hikes we saw a long string of stronger - than - expected economic data, culminating in the gdp report at the end of august that showed an annual growth rate in the second quarter of 4. 5 per cent. as we noted in our most recent interest rate announcement, this pace is unlikely to be sustained, and recent data point clearly to a moderation in the second half of the year. still, the expansion is becoming more

on its way home. and although we are confident that the economy has made significant progress, we cannot be certain of exactly how far there is left to go. the economic progress we have seen tells us that the moves we took to ease policy in 2015 were the right thing to do. at a minimum, that additional stimulus is no longer needed. but there is no predetermined path for interest rates from here. monetary policy will be particularly data dependent in these circumstances and, as always, we could still be surprised in either direction. we will continue to feel our way cautiously as we get closer to home, fostering economic growth and keeping our inflation target front and centre. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches