##g. % points - 1. 0 cpi ( less fresh food ) cpi ( less fresh food and energy ) cpi estimates ( less fresh food, energy, and policy effects ) - 2. 0 11 12 cy 2011 - 1. 5 - 2. 0 21 cy 2011 11 12 - 25 trimmed mean ( left scale ) weighted median ( left scale ) diffusion index ( right scale ) - 50 notes : 1. in the left panel, figures are adjusted for consumption tax hikes and the introduction of free preschool education. in addition to the above, figures for " cpi estimates ( less fresh food, energy, and policy effects ) " also exclude the effects of policies concerning the provision of free higher education and the " go to travel " campaign. 2. in the right panel, " diffusion index " is defined as the share of increasing items minus that of decreasing items. sources : ministry of internal affairs and communications, " consumer price index " ; bank of japan, " measures of underlying inflation. " turning to the outlook for prices, according to the medians of the policy board members'forecasts presented in the january 2021 outlook report, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) is expected to increase gradually from minus 0. 5 percent for fiscal 2020 to 0. 5 percent for fiscal 2021, and to 0. 7 percent for fiscal 2022, as shown in chart 4. if we look at the output gap and medium - to long - term inflation expectations - - both of which affect the underlying trend in prices - - the output gap, shown in the left panel of chart 12, continues to indicate a significant excess supply, although the gap itself had narrowed after having recorded an excess supply of over 4 percent in the april - june quarter of 2020. inflation expectations have declined since the end of 2019, as confirmed in the right panel of the chart. bearing in mind that the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest, with uncertainty over when the spread of covid - 19 will subside, it is difficult to project at this stage that the inflation rate will gather momentum toward approaching the 2 percent price stability target, with the output gap shifting to excess demand and inflation expectations rising. 1 chart 12 output gap and inflation expectations output gap synthetic indicators of inflation expectations %, % points labor input gap capital input gap output gap 2. 0 y / y % chg. firms, households, and experts ( quick survey ) firms, households, and

a bank or credit union. 2 this choice could have significant implications for a consumer ’ s financial well - being, both good and bad. these cards, with their visa and mastercard branding, make it easy for consumers to make purchases online, but do not carry the same robust federal protections as debit or credit cards and their use does not establish a relationship with a financial institution that can serve as the entry point for other financial services such as loans. as more and more new products are introduced to the financial marketplace, it becomes more important for consumers to be able to evaluate and compare products ’ benefits and potential costs. many consumers seek the advice of friends and family when making financial decisions. online social networks are increasingly playing this role as a source of financial information, particularly among younger consumers. 3 at the same time, it is crucial that they also have access to accurate, comprehensive, and unbiased financial information. starting financial education early successfully navigating the volumes of financial information out there, whether from advertisements, advisors, or social media, requires critical skills based on a foundation of numeracy, language arts, and decisionmaking that is first developed in school. it is important that these skills be included in curriculum and measured in student achievement tests. if our schools can ’ t spare the resources to provide financial literacy as a subject unto itself, i believe that the concepts required for sound financial decisionmaking should, at a minimum, be incorporated into existing subject areas. math problems can involve consumer financial calculations. social studies classes can help students understand the real world financial issues and decisions they will face as young adults. i also think that the work many of you are doing to make financial lessons more appealing to school aged children is extremely important given the competition for attention from media and web - based entertainment and games. more broadly, financial education is a life - long endeavor. sound financial decisions are made when consumers have access to information that is clear and culturally relevant and that is provided at critical “ teachable ” moments, such as when a consumer is financing education, buying a car, starting a family, purchasing a house, or planning for retirement. these are just a few examples. as academicians, practitioners, and policymakers, we need to identify as many of these moments as possible and determine how best to support positive financial outcomes for consumers at those moments. corey stone and joshua sledge ( 2010 ), “ financial first encounters : an examination of the fractured financial landscape facing youth today. ”