in the aftermath of the crisis. fifth, our framework is designed to avoid spiral dynamics between house prices and credit volumes. since the mortgage measures were initially flagged in late 2014, there has been a sharp moderation in expectations for annual gains in house prices, since it is widely understood that persistently - high rates of increase in house prices are not likely in a system in which measures place ceilings on lti and ltv ratios. moreover, our macroprudential regulations can be tightened if there is emerging evidence of elevated risks in the mortgage market. finally, it is important to appreciate that many factors influence the dynamics of house prices. while rising incomes typically might support some gain in house prices, the prospect of future expansion in housing supply and tightening in the global funding conditions for lenders are significant factors that may place downward pressure on house prices over the medium term. the range of uncertainty about the future path for house prices is an important risk factor that motivates the need for ceilings on lti and ltv ratios. these refinements will improve the design of the framework and will take effect from january 1, 2017. looking to the future, the revised framework should require adjustments only if there are material 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches changes to the macro - financial environment that require a tightening or loosening of these measures. it is important to appreciate that saving a deposit for a house is a basic requirement that ensures better long - term outcomes both for the borrower and the lender, in terms of more affordable mortgages and lower credit risk. everybody gains from the prudent borrowing and lending patterns that are essential for a stable financial system : our mortgage measures are designed to deliver this objective. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches

philip r lane : the european financial system after brexit address by mr philip r lane, governor of the central bank of ireland, at reuters newsmaker event, london, 28 october 2016. * * * good morning! i can think of no better location to speak about the implications of brexit for the european financial system than here in canary wharf. before i turn to my main topic, let me briefly mention a few points in relation to the near - term implications of brexit. first, while the economic and market reaction to brexit has been relatively orderly so far in the uk and the rest of the eu ( in part due to the monetary accommodation provided by the bank of england and the easing of yields across europe ), the transition towards the phase of active uk - eu negotiations that will begin in spring 2017 may trigger a more substantial re - assessment of post - brexit economic prospects. in particular, if the momentum in the negotiations is in the direction of a more severe form of brexit, this may damage consumer and investor confidence. while the effects might be qualitatively similar in both the uk and the wider eu, it is likely that the impact will be asymmetric, in view of the relative size of the uk and eu economies. second, the large movement in the sterling - euro exchange rate represents an important stabilising mechanism by which the equilibrium real exchange rate depreciation associated with the downward shift in the relative economic prospects for the uk is partly attained through a step adjustment in the currency. it also shifts the financial terms of trade, with uk owners of foreigncurrency assets enjoying a valuation gain. while incumbent foreign holders of sterling assets have suffered a valuation loss, the decline in sterling may entice new foreign investors attracted by the decline in the relative price of uk assets. finally, in relation to the exchange rate, it is important to keep in mind that the recent depreciation of sterling against the euro is in the wake of a sustained appreciation phase between early 2013 and the middle of 2015. third, the extensive linkages between the uk and ireland mean that irish economic performance is especially sensitive to shifts in uk output levels and the sterling - euro exchange rate. accordingly, the central bank of ireland has adjusted its 2017 growth forecast from 4. 2 percent to 3. 6 percent. the scale of this revision shows the material impact of brexit on the irish economy ; at the same time, the irish economy is