levels. looking ahead, the slowing economy is likely to lead to some increase in the unemployment rate. fiscal support measures to cushion the impact of higher energy prices should be temporary and targeted at the most vulnerable households and firms to limit the risk of fuelling inflationary pressures, to enhance the efficiency of public spending and to preserve debt sustainability. structural policies should aim at raising the euro area ’ s growth potential and supporting its resilience. inflation inflation rose further to 9. 1 per cent in august. energy price inflation remained extremely elevated, at 38. 3 per cent, and it was again the dominant component of overall inflation. market - based indicators suggest that, in the near term, oil prices will moderate, while wholesale gas prices will stay extraordinarily high. food price inflation also rose in august, to 10. 6 per cent, partly reflecting higher input costs related to energy, disruptions of trade in food commodities and adverse weather conditions. while supply bottlenecks have been easing, these continue to gradually feed through to consumer prices and are putting upward pressure on inflation, as is recovering demand in the services sector. the depreciation of the euro has also added to the build - up of inflationary pressures. price pressures are spreading across more and more sectors, in part owing to the impact of high energy costs across the whole economy. accordingly, measures of underlying inflation remain at elevated levels and the latest staff projections see inflation excluding food and energy reaching 3. 9 per cent in 2022, 3. 4 per cent in 2023 and 2. 3 per cent in 2024. resilient labour markets and some catch - up to compensate for higher inflation are likely to support growth in wages. at the same time, incoming data and recent wage agreements indicate that wage dynamics remain contained overall. most measures of longer - term inflation expectations currently stand at around two per cent, although recent above - target revisions to some indicators warrant continued monitoring. risk assessment in the context of the slowing global economy, risks to growth are primarily on the downside, in particular in the near term. as reflected in the downside scenario in the staff projections, a long - lasting war in ukraine remains a significant risk to growth, especially if firms and households faced rationing of energy supplies. in such a situation, confidence could deteriorate further and supply - side constraints could worsen again. energy and food costs could also remain persistently higher than expected. a further deterioration in the global economic outlook could be

complexity of otc derivatives, had been a major factor, if not in triggering the collapse of lehman brothers and the near - default of aig, at least in amplifying market disruptions in their aftermath. at the pittsburgh summit in september 2009, g20 leaders committed themselves to increasing the resilience and transparency of otc derivatives markets, including through mandatory central clearing of standardised otc derivatives. as a result, the share of otc derivatives cleared centrally has increased markedly, especially in the otc interest rate and credit derivatives segments ( see chart 1 ). as evidenced by the financial stability board ( fsb ), there also seems to be scope for substantial further growth in central clearing, especially for interest rate swaps ( irs ) and credit default swaps ( cds ) ( fsb, 2016 ). inevitably, the increased share of central clearing has been associated with further risk concentration in ccps. this in itself is not a concern. as long as ccps are superior risk managers and act as pillars of strength rather than sources of contagion during potential crisis situations, they act as risk poolers, not risk takers, and they therefore reduce the overall level of risk in the global financial system ( not to mention other benefits such as a more efficient use of scarce collateral ). in this respect, they are c1 share of centrally cleared transactions in otc derivatives markets ( % ) s2 s1 s2 s1 s1 s2 s1 s2 s1 s2 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 interest rates swaps credit default swaps source : fsb data, ecb calculations. fundamentally different from banks, whose social function is to transform risk and maturity. in addition, the financial resources included in the ccp recovery waterfall provide for “ built - in bail ‑ in ” of their shareholders and clearing members. nevertheless, in order to ensure that this is the case and that ccps can withstand not only tail events but “ tail of tail ” events involving the default of multiple clearing members, policymakers have in recent years embarked on an ambitious agenda to enhance their robustness. the adoption by the cpmi and the board of the international organization of securities commissions ( iosco ) of the principles for financial market infrastructures ( pfmi ) ( cpmi - iosco, 2012 ), related guidance on financial market infrastructure recovery ( cpmi - iosco, 2014 ) and the fmi annex to the fsb ’ s key attributes