tiff macklem : central banking - navigating in a new world remarks by mr tiff macklem, governor of the bank of canada, at the 30th conference of montreal " international economic forum of the americas ", montreal, quebec, 12 june 2024. * * * good afternoon. it's always great to be back in montreal, my hometown. and i could not be more pleased to be here with joachim nagel, president of the deutsche bundesbank. thank you for visiting us in canada. since i'm on my home turf, let me start us off with a few words about where we find ourselves in economic history. key lessons from high inflation canada and germany have just come through the biggest inflation we've experienced in 40 years. and as painful as this has been, it has highlighted some lessons. i will focus on three in the canadian context. first, we ignore the supply - side of the economy at our peril. as central banks, we tend to focus on the demand side because that's what we influence with interest rates. but coming out of the pandemic, we learned that it is much easier to restore demand than supply. high inflation was a stark reminder that supply shocks can cumulate and persistand when they intersect with periods of strong demand, the inflationary consequences can be large. looking ahead, technological change, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and shifting trade and investment flows all suggest we may experience more supply shocks than we did in the past. businesses and central banks need to be ready. second, inflation is painful - that's not a new lesson, but for many of our citizens it was their first experience with high inflation. and it has been painful. inflation harms people and the economy, and it corrodes trust in our market - based system. the rising cost of living made life harder for everyone, especially those who had less to start with. people were working hard, but their paycheques didn't buy what they used to. that made people feel cheated and angry. recent history has been a stark reminder that inflation is our common enemy. the third lesson is the value of central bank credibility and public trust. we did not have that in the 1970s, and the costs of unwinding inflation were very high. this time, our track record on inflation control combined with our forceful monetary response brought inflation back down at much lower economic cost. but public trust and central bank credibility

lynn patterson : adjusting to the fall in commodity prices – one step at a time remarks by ms lynn patterson, deputy governor of the bank of canada, to the edmonton chamber of commerce, edmonton, alberta, 30 march 2016. * * * introduction good afternoon. thank you for inviting me here today. it ’ s a pleasure to be in edmonton and speaking to the chamber of commerce. when i accepted this invitation, it took me all of about 10 seconds to decide what my topic would be : the impact of lower commodity prices on canada ’ s economy, which is important to all of us. as business leaders in alberta, you know this better than most because you are experiencing it first - hand. at the bank we have committed a lot of resources to understanding the impact on the economy of the drop in prices, and so i thought it would be helpful to share some of our insights, from a macro perspective, into the adjustment we are facing. oil prices alone are down by well over 60 per cent since the highs we experienced in mid2014. given the supply dynamics that we are currently faced with, it is highly unlikely that we will see those levels again in the coming years. while this price drop is affecting all canadians, it is being felt most acutely here in alberta and other oil - producing regions. we at the bank are well aware of the toll this is taking on firms and the hardship it means for many individuals and families. yet the message that i want to share with you today is that canada ’ s economy is diverse and dynamic enough to achieve, in time, a new balance of economic growth. while energy and other commodities will continue to play a very important role in the domestic economy, we don ’ t expect that they will account for as large a share of our exports as they did in the recent past. 1 i want to focus on three key questions that are top of mind for us at the bank and, most likely, for many of you. first, how do we assess the impact of this shock? second, how will the economy adapt and how long will it take? and third, what will the economic landscape look like when it ’ s done? in answering these questions, i will highlight a simulation of the commodity price shock that we ran through one of our economic models to help us understand the implications for the economy. i will also describe in some detail the insights into the adjustment process that the model gave us. let me begin with some context. as