0. 6 % last quarter. the forecast for 2021 is 1. 1 %, 0. 1 of a percentage point lower than last quarter. the conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the snb policy rate remains at – 0. 75 % over the entire forecast horizon. global economic outlook our inflation forecast is based on assumptions regarding the development of the global economy. the signs from the global economy remain mixed. gdp growth picked up in the first quarter, with all large economies recording above - average expansion. however, manufacturing output again tended to weaken in a number of countries. this has been accompanied by subdued capital spending and a decline in the global trade in goods. the weakening in industrial activity is attributable to various factors, including difficulties faced by specific sectors – in particular the automotive industry – as well as the impact of protectionist measures and increased uncertainty. on the labour markets, the signals have remained positive overall. employment figures have risen again in the advanced economies. unemployment has continued to decline, and is now page 3 / 5 berne, 13 june 2019 thomas jordan news conference at or close to historic lows. this favourable situation on the labour market is supporting consumer demand. in our baseline scenario for the global economy, we expect growth in the coming quarters to remain in line with potential. in the advanced economies, expansionary monetary policy is lending support, as is fiscal policy in some countries. inflationary pressure is likely to remain moderate. the risks to this baseline scenario for the global economy are still to the downside. however, they are more pronounced than at our previous monetary policy assessment. chief among them are political uncertainty and trade tensions, which could lead to renewed turbulence on the financial markets and a further dampening of economic sentiment. swiss economic outlook i shall now turn to the economic outlook for switzerland. the swiss economy also gathered momentum at the beginning of the year. according to the initial estimate, gdp grew by 2. 3 % in the first quarter. growth was broad - based across the different sectors of the economy. labour market developments were also positive. employment figures continued to rise, and the unemployment rate remained stable at a low level. production capacity in switzerland was well utilised overall. as regards the developments in the second quarter and the months thereafter, the surveys and leading indicators are currently presenting a mixed picture. all in all, however, they point towards momentum remaining favourable. even in manufacturing, which is likely to be affected most directly by weaker industrial activity,

general meeting of the ocbf 17 june 2022 economic and financial situation and outlook in the context of the war in ukraine speech by denis beau, first deputy governor ladies and gentlemen, i am delighted to be with you today on the occasion of your annual general meeting. last year, i spoke before you about the outlook for the euro area economy in the wake of the health crisis. since then, new lockdowns in china and especially the war in ukraine have created new shocks for the european economy and financial system. today, i would like to share with you our analysis, at the banque de france and the acpr, of the outlook and the resulting short - term, macroeconomic and subsequent macrofinancial risks, which guide our actions as a central bank and supervisor in our mission to preserve monetary and financial stability. i will end my remarks with the longer - term challenges we collectively face, associated with climate change and the digitalisation of finance, which should not be overshadowed by the war in ukraine and its consequences. these challenges still require resolute and immediate action from all of us, and in this context i will say a few words about the role we can play as supervisors and central bankers to help banks in their transition to a sustainable economy and digitalised finance. 1. macroeconomic risks and outlook the war in ukraine and the lockdown in china weighed heavily on the rebound in activity in europe, and particularly in france, which had gathered pace in the second half of last year. they also strongly amplified, extended and diffused to consumer prices the rise in producer prices, initially driven by rising energy and raw material prices. in other words, we are now facing a " slowflationary " shock whose magnitude and duration remain highly uncertain at this stage. nevertheless, the baseline scenario for the euro area as a whole, as set out in the ecb's recently published forecasts, remains that of continued growth, albeit at a more moderate pace of 2. 8 % in 2022 and 2. 1 % in 2023, with growth revised upwards to 2. 1 % in 2024. this baseline scenario also includes higher and more persistent inflation, of 6. 8 % in 2022, 3. 5 % in 2023 and 2. 1 % in 2024. the risk to this baseline scenario is clearly one of lower growth and higher inflation. for france, we will publish our new forecasts on 21 june and i cannot give you any scoops today