a slowdown in overseas economies and intensification of supply - side constraints, while upward revisions were made for fy2023 and fy2024. d. price developments in japan next, i would like to talk about price developments in japan. the year - on - year rate of increase in the consumer price index ( cpi ) for all items less fresh food has accelerated to 2. 4 percent ( chart 9 ). this acceleration reflects the fact that ( 1 ) the effects of the reduction in mobile phone charges, which had held down inflation, have essentially run their course, ( 2 ) energy prices have continued to register a relatively high increase, and ( 3 ) firms have been increasingly passing on higher raw material costs to selling prices, especially for food products. other indicators that capture the underlying trend in consumer prices have exhibited the following developments. the trimmed mean of the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi - calculated by excluding items belonging to the upper and lower 10 percent of the price change distribution - - has increased to the range of 1. 5 - 2. 0 percent due to price rises in a wide range of food products. however, in terms of the mode, which is the inflation rate with the highest density in the price change distribution, the rate of increase has been relatively marginal, in the range of 0. 5 - 1. 0 percent. while these indicators show price rises driven by goods and services that reflect the higher costs of some raw materials, my view is that, on the whole, selling prices have not risen as much as raw material prices. in terms of the baseline scenario of the outlook for prices, the medians of the policy board members'forecasts presented in the july outlook report for the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi less fresh food are 2. 3 percent for fy2022, 1. 4 percent for fy2023, and 1. 3 percent for fy2024 ( chart 1 ). considering the elevated crude oil prices and the time it has taken thus far for cost increases such as of raw materials to be actually passed on to selling prices, it is highly likely that price rises driven by cost - push factors will continue for the time being, mainly for energy and food products. upward pressure on costs stemming from inefficiency in logistics due to the prolonged situation surrounding ukraine is also likely to induce such rises. inflation rates are projected to subsequently fall to a level below 2 percent as the

china < 21. 6 > nies, asean, etc. < 36. 3 > other economies < 15. 0 > notes : 1. based on staff calculations. figures in angular brackets show the share of each country or region in japan's total exports in 2021. figures for 2022 / q3 are those for july. 2. figures for the eu exclude those for the united kingdom for the entire period. sources : ministry of finance ; bank of japan. source : ministry of economy, trade and industry. chart 5 corporate sector in japan business conditions manufacturing " favorable " di ( " favorable " - " unfavorable " ), % point nonmanufacturing di ( " favorable " - " unfavorable " ), % point " unfavorable " - 10 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 30 - 30 - 40 - 40 - 50 - 50 - 60 - 60 - 70 cy 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 - 70 cy 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 notes : 1. based on the tankan. all enterprises. 2. shaded areas denote recession periods. source : bank of japan. chart 6 corporate sector in japan corporate profits business fixed investment s. a., tril. yen s. a., tril. yen y / y % chg. 25 20 private nonresidential investment ( sna, nominal ) tankan ( actual ) tankan ( planned investment in current fiscal year as of the june survey of each year ) sales ( left scale ) current profits ( right scale ) cy 07 - 10 - 15 - 5 notes : 1. based on the financial statements statistics of corporations by industry, quarterly. excluding " finance and insurance. " 2. figures from 2009 / q2 onward exclude pure holding companies. 3. shaded areas denote recession periods. source : ministry of finance. - 20 fy 07 note : the tankan figures include software and r & d investments and exclude land purchasing expenses. r & d investment is not included before the march 2017 survey. the figures are for all industries including financial institutions. sources : cabinet office ; bank of japan. chart 7 household sector in japan sales trends by business type department stores supermarkets convenience stores dining - out travel ratio to the same month in cy 2018, % fast food restaurants outbound family restaurants inbound pubs and izakaya ( japanese - style