rates as soon as core inflation stabilises, or even better, when it starts falling. however, it's different in reality. because of the transmission lag, the central bank should correctly stop raising rates before inflation peaks. 3 the problem of this 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches academically and practically correct approach is that people can see that inflation is still high and might think that the central bank is not determined to fight inflation because rates have stopped rising. the economically incorrect approach of raising rates until cost - push inflation turns around leads to an overshooting. the resulting recession will be deeper than necessary. professor oldich ddek and i described this precisely in an article called tamers of cost - push inflation. 4 it's also why we have set the monetary policy horizon at spring 2024 in the last two forecasts. 5 if the central bank is credible enough, ceasing to increase rates before inflation turns around does not have to be a problem. however, everything needs to be properly explained. so, i argue that the cnb's interest rates are already at a level that is dampening economic activity. the short - term interest rate in the czech republic is now at its highest level since 1999. we have the tightest monetary policy in more than twenty years. growth in the quantity of money in the economy is slowing considerably. m1 is falling by 6. 3 % year on year in nominal terms ( september 2022 ), while the average for 2015 – 2019 was growth of 9. 3 %. m2 is rising by 5. 5 % year on year in nominal terms ( september 2022 ), while the average for 2015 – 2019 was 7. 8 %. if we deflate the monetary aggregates by the consumer price index, the monetary developments are already significantly restrictive for the economy. the year - on - year change in net new mortgages was - 82 % in september ( - 77 % in august and - 71 % in july ). the year - on - year change in net new loans to corporations was - 64 % ( - 40 % in august and - 70 % in july ). the demand - pull inflation pressures from the domestic economy are now moderating and household consumption is even falling in real terms. a policy of stable interest rates is therefore now the right one. however, credibility is about the long term, about consistency, and about actions rather than words. we have the second - highest international reserves in europe after

speech price stability : the foundation for a strong economy july 08, 2022 john c. williams, president and chief executive officer remarks at the university of puerto rico – mayaguez, mayaguez, puerto rico as prepared for delivery it's a pleasure to be here this morning at the university of puerto rico's beautiful mayaguez campus. thank you for that kind introduction. this visit is part of the new york fed's broader commitment to serving the diverse economies in the federal reserve's second district, which — in addition to puerto rico — includes the u. s. virgin islands, new york state, northern new jersey, and parts of connecticut. here in puerto rico, we supervise four commercial banking organizations that account for a large part of the deposit and lending activities on the island. we also provide cash services to depository institutions located in puerto rico and the u. s. virgin islands. to take one example, the new york fed coordinated an extensive effort to keep cash operations on the island functional following hurricane maria, ensuring adequate supply and meeting the demand for much - needed currency. we also study issues that affect the communities here, and our economists monitor economic conditions that inform our work. 1 i'll start by saying that i am so pleased that in many respects the puerto rican economy has recovered strongly from the hurricanes and the pandemic. over the course of my visit, i've had the opportunity to hear firsthand from business, government, and community leaders about what is happening on the island. i met with government officials to discuss the commonwealth ’ s economic plan and pandemic recovery. i also heard from executives about how the banking sector is faring. and i met with leaders of cooperativas to hear about what they're doing to help residents improve their access to credit and financial services. i took a short flight here from san juan after a full day of engagements yesterday, and i spent the earlier part of this morning at the aeronautical and aerospace institute of puerto rico, where i learned about this growing industry. needless to say, the views from the ground and the air have been delightful. the u. s. economy has experienced a tremendous rebound since the darkest days at the onset of the pandemic. but now, inflation is sky - high, and it is the number one danger to the overall health and stability of a well - functioning economy. the war in ukraine and the recent lockdowns in china, on top of