june. moreover, russia's attacks in the south of ukraine will also have an impact on price dynamics. the disinflation trend will continue in the coming years : inflation will decline to 8. 5 % in 2024 and to 6 % in 2025. lower security risks will allow restoring optimal logistical routes and increasing industrial production and crop harvests. this will also enable investment inflows to ukraine. a further decline in global prices will also contribute to the slowdown in inflation. these factors outweigh the pro - inflationary impact of an increase in domestic demand, a rise in wages, and changes in some utility tariffs in the post - war period. the economy has proven to be resilient to new challenges of the war and is to grow by 2. 9 % this year an increase in domestic demand contributed to the further revival of economic activity. on the other hand, the economy has been restrained by constant missile attacks, blocking of the grain corridor, and damage inflicted on infrastructure. trade barriers imposed on ukrainian agricultural products had an adverse effect on business. at the same time, actual results of q1 turned out to be better than envisaged in the previous macroeconomic forecast. economic activity continued to pick up in q2, in both the manufacturing and services sectors. in the coming years, economic growth will accelerate, based on the nbu's forecast assumption about a decline in security risks in mid - 2024. exports will recover more actively after maritime logistics is restored and attacks on infrastructure cease. the gradual return of migrants will spur consumer demand, and investment will pick up during the country's reconstruction. the loose fiscal policy will remain important for stimulating the economy. taking this into consideration, the nbu forecasts real gdp growth at 3. 5 % in 2024 and 6. 8 % in 2025. since the start of the year, ukraine has received almost usd 27 billion from international partners. this was much more than the amount of the nbu's sales of foreign currency to balance the fx market. thanks to regular inflows of external assistance, ukraine's international reserves reached an all - time high of usd 39 billion as of the end of june. thanks to the external support, the government was able to cover the wide budget deficit without resorting to monetary financing. international assistance is expected to reach usd 42 billion as of the end of this year. international support will remain very important for maintaining macrofinancial stability in the coming

##plete rapidly on the back of the need to maintain exchange rate stability and imbalances will keep building up in the economy. what are the current price dynamics? in april, inflation accelerated to 16. 4 % yoy. in particular, core inflation rose by 13 %. in monthly terms, prices grew by 3. 1 %. according to the nbu ’ s preliminary estimates, inflation continued to grow in may. as of now, inflation is restrained by : ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ a certain recovery in the economic activity a gradual setting up of logistics an increase in supply from domestic producers and importers an excess of agricultural inputs and a relatively low demand for them the nbu fixing the official exchange rate and limiting its fluctuations on the interbank market, and the government imposing administrative caps on prices. the liberation of ukraine ’ s northern regions ( kyiv, chernihiv, and sumy oblasts ) and the ukrainian army ’ s resistance in southern and eastern regions restrained the deterioration in inflation expectations. at the same time, the disruption of production and logistics by the war is fueling inflation. high global energy prices also remain a significant inflationary factor, putting pressure on consumer inflation, both directly and indirectly, through higher production costs. third, ukraine is also in part importing global inflation, which has hit a record - high. in particular, the current inflation rate in the united states and euro area countries is over 8 %. how will prices behave in future? despite the gradual recovery of the economy, the upward trend in inflation will continue over the coming three months. this could worsen inflation expectations even further, and encourage depositors to convert their hryvnia savings into fx ones. for this reason the nbu has decided to return to an active interest rate policy to prevent these negative trends. why did the nbu raise the key policy rate significantly? after considering several scenarios, the nbu decided to raise the key policy rate by a whole of 15 pp, to 25 % per annum. the nbu believes that a slight increase in the key policy rate wouldn ’ t have had the desired influence on the financial and economic system. the first reason for this is that the monetary transmission mechanism has only a limited effect in wartime. second, this would have resulted in depositors taking a wait - and - see approach and, investors having weak interest in hryvnia assets. third, to revive interest in hryvnia assets, their yields must exceed expected inflation rates