y v reddy : asian perspective on growth – outlook for india address by dr y v reddy, governor of the reserve bank of india, at the g30's international banking seminar, hosted by the monetary authority of singapore, singapore, 18 september 2006. * * * distinguished friends, i am delighted to be here at the g30's international banking seminar hosted by the monetary authority of singapore. indeed, it is an honour and privilege to be amidst the global gurus of financial world. i divide my humble presentation into five parts : namely the contours of indian economy ; the major challenges facing the indian economy ; the impact of global imbalances on india ; some not easily quantifiable strengths of india and ; india's growing economic relations with asia. contours of indian economy • the indian economy has been growing at an average annual growth rate of nearly 6 per cent since the 1980s, and at over 8 per cent during the last three years. a draft approach paper to the eleventh five year plan ( 2007 - 08 to 2011 - 12 ) suggests that the economy can grow between 8 and 9 per cent per year. • india has also shown considerable resilience during the recent years and avoided adverse contagion impact of several shocks. • the inflation rate has been low and stable since the mid - 1990s moderating to around 5 per cent per annum. the common intention of the government and the reserve bank of india is to maintain annual inflation below 5 per cent in the medium term. • we see a consistent increase in gross domestic investment rate from 23. 0 per cent of gdp in 2001 - 02 to 30. 1 per cent in 2004 - 05. the gross domestic saving rate has also improved from 23. 6 per cent to 29. 1 per cent over the same period, contributed by a significant turn around in public sector saving. • the productivity of capital use, as measured by the incremental capital output ratio ( icor ), has been high by asian standards and is showing downward trend reflecting improvement in productivity growth as well as more intensive use of existing capacity. this point to prospects for sustained high growth in future, given the existing level of investment in the economy, coupled with upward trend in domestic savings. • a noteworthy development during the recent years has been the continued recovery in manufacturing sector. this has been supported by domestic as well export demand, increased capacity utilization, augmentation of capacities and improvements in private business and consumer confidence. • the services

sector accounts for 60 per cent of gdp and has been growing at 9 per cent per annum since the mid - 1990s, with potential for creating jobs and generating additional income. • there has been a significant decline in the poverty ratio during the 1990s as reflected in the latest survey of 2004 - 05 by the national sample survey organisation. the growth performance and potential augurs well for addressing concerns relating to disguised unemployment, seasonal unemployment and underemployment in the years ahead. • the fiscal position of the government, both central and states, is undergoing consolidation in terms of targeted reduction in fiscal deficit indicators. • the current account deficit ( cad ) to gdp ratio has been moderate in india. the current account remained in surplus during 2001 - 02 to 2003 - 04, before turning into a modest deficit since then. it is expected to continue to be in the range of 2 to 3 per cent under the projected outlook of 8 to 9 per cent growth rate during the eleventh five year plan. india's foreign exchange reserves now stand roughly at us $ 165 billion and are well in excess of total external debt of the country. • the financial markets, especially the money, government securities and forex markets have been nurtured and developed in view of their critical role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. • the financial sector has acquired greater strength, efficiency and stability by the combined effect of competition, regulatory measures, policy environment and motivation among the market players including banks. • the workers enjoy considerable freedom of movement, expression and rights, especially through unionisation which, while making some changes difficult, ensures a vibrancy and timely improvisation to deal with competition. major challenges for sustenance of indian growth process • first, the poor state of the physical infrastructure, both in terms of quantity and quality. the most important issue here is regulatory framework which is being addressed by the government. technological developments and rapid enhancement of domestic construction capabilities should aid the process of speedy and efficient implementation. given the healthy fundamentals of the domestic financial sector and the enhanced interest of foreign investors, funding should not pose any serious problem. one other concern has been the cost recovery, which is expected to improve with more public - private partnership. there are grounds for optimism for a medium term resolution of these issues. • second, fiscal consolidation. the recent budget of the central government brings the consolidation on track, targeting a gross fiscal deficit of three per cent of gdp by 2009 while eliminating revenue ( current ) deficit. our studies on state finances