pace above its potential through fiscal 2016. in fiscal 2017, although demand related to hosting the olympic games will underpin the economy, the growth rate is expected to slow to around a level somewhat below the potential, mainly because of a fall in household spending due to the consumption tax hike. looking at the medians of the policy board members ’ forecasts in the january 2016 outlook report, the real gdp growth rate is projected to be 1. 1 percent for fiscal 2015, 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2016, and 0. 3 percent for fiscal 2017. looking at the outlook in detail by major component, business fixed investment is projected to continue to see a moderate increase on the back of a marked improvement in corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. private consumption is projected to generally remain resilient, reflecting the developments in real disposable income. housing investment is expected to continue picking up, underpinned by the continued steady improvement in the employment and income situation and the low levels of housing loan rates. industrial production is likely to start picking up as the inventory adjustments progress, and thereafter is likely to follow a moderate increasing trend, supported by an increase in final demand at home and abroad. exports, which have been picking up, are expected to head toward a moderate increase for the time being since automobile - related exports are likely to continue increasing on the back of firm sales developments in the united states, europe, and china. however, in the longer run, exports are expected to tend to mark a fall rather than a clear increase, given the decline in expected growth in emerging and commodity - exporting economies, protracted low commodity prices, and the resulting excess in production capacity related to materials and energy. on the price front, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices. nevertheless, as the underlying trend in prices steadily rises and the effects of the decline in bis central bankers ’ speeches crude oil prices dissipate, the rate is likely to accelerate toward 2 percent – the price stability target. looking at the medians of the policy board members ’ forecasts in the january 2016 outlook report, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ), excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, is projected to be 0. 1 percent for fiscal 2015, 0

association ; ministry of economy, trade and industry ; ministry of internal affairs and communications. chart 6 employment and income situation in japan various measures of labor market conditions cy 1990 - 2019 avg. = 0, standard deviation cy 1990 - 2019 avg. = 0, standard deviation labor shortage labor shortage - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 active job openings - to - applicants ratio employment conditions di ( tankan ) ( ) labor input gap - 3 - 4 cy 80 employment rate gap unemployment rate short - term unemployment rate long - term unemployment rate - 3 - 4 cy 80 notes : 1. figures for each measure of labor market conditions are normalized by the standard deviation from 1990 to 2019. 2. figures for the active job openings - to - applicants ratio and the unemployment rate for 2022 / q4 are october - november averages. 3. the labor input gap and the employment rate gap are bank staff estimates. 4. figures for the short - and long - term unemployment rates up through 2001 are on a semiannual or annual basis. sources : ministry of health, labour and welfare ; ministry of internal affairs and communications ; bank of japan, etc. chart 7 employment and income situation in japan number of employed persons s. a., mil. persons s. a., cy 2019 = 100 employee income y / y % chg. - 2 employed persons ( left scale ) regular employees ( right scale ) total cash earnings number of employees employee income non - regular employees ( right scale ) cy 07 note : figures for regular employees and non - regular employees prior to 2013 are based on the " detailed tabulation " in the labour force survey. source : ministry of internal affairs and communications. - 4 12 / q1 14 / q1 16 / q1 18 / q1 20 / q1 22 / q1 notes : 1. q1 = march - may, q2 = june - august, q3 = september - november, q4 = december - february. the figure for 2022 / q4 is that for december. 2. employee income = total cash earnings ( monthly labour survey ) × number of employees ( labour force survey ) 3. figures from 2016 / q1 onward are based on continuing observations following the sample revisions of the monthly labour survey. sources : ministry of health, labour and welfare ; ministry of internal affairs and communications. chart 8 producer prices final demand - intermediate demand ( fd - id ) price indexes ( all commodities ) goods and services prices