deviations were corrected by the economy. otherwise, it would have started pressuring the credibility of the fixed exchange rate. while in the previous monetary system, more fretful analysts might have speculated that the economy would be adjusted through devaluation – the weakening of the currency ’ s value – which would have allowed inflation to remain higher, luckily this is not an option in the monetary union. there is a greater concern upon making long - term economic decisions in the monetary union : whether the euro area ’ s central banks ( that is, the eurosystem as a whole ) are able to keep the pan - european average inflation rate at a suitable level. this means that in the medium term, the inflation rate has to remain below but close to 2 %. while in austria or slovenia, or in estonia for that matter, inflation may temporarily differ from that of the euro area, we have to look at the whole picture when making decisions. the ability of the euro area to keep inflation close to 2 % over the entire past decade has inspired confidence. the average inflation rate has remained slightly below 2 % throughout the history of the single currency and annual inflation has mostly ranged within 1. 5 – 2. 5 %. however, we must not be distracted by our success. the euro area ’ s inflation indicator was over 2 % at the beginning of this year, and, most recently 2. 4 %. this is worrying. bis central bankers ’ speeches the more detailed picture is, of course, more diverse and future monetary policy measures will also have to take that diversity into account. on the one hand, the european economy is just recovering from a deep economic recession. unemployment is higher than usual, the relatively high debt burden is inhibiting borrowing activity in many countries and the majority of the recent price hike stems from global factors, such as the price growth of energy and food on the global market. the prices of other goods and services, on the other hand, have been posting quite modest growth rates. therefore, the inflation expectations of entrepreneurs and consumers have remained close to the historical average. if the price hike of commodities stops, the increase in the euro area ’ s prices could remain below 2 % already next year. however, looking at the data from another angle, we can find proof to arguments which insist that the current euro - area interest rate level is not suitable for guaranteeing the low inflation rate that corresponds to the price stability goal. although the general public focuses on the debt crisis of certain

cleviston haynes : the right mix of solutions to our challenges is within our reach welcome address by mr cleviston haynes, governor of the central bank of barbados, at the 33rd adlith brown memorial lecture, bridgetown, 8 november 2018. * * * it is my honour and pleasure on behalf of the management and staff of the central bank of barbados to welcome all of you this evening to this 33rd adlith brown memorial lecture, which is being held during the 50th anniversary of the annual monetary studies conference. dr. adlith brown, in whose name this series of lectures is dedicated, began her academic journey in 1968, the same year the regional programme of monetary studies was established. dr. browne would eventually become the fourth coordinator of this programme from 1980 – 1984. i did not know her personally, but there is an image in my memory of a slender, active lady at my first conference back in 1981. many complimentary remarks about her contribution to the profession and to this conference have been made by those who truly knew her. as this year marks the golden anniversary of the annual monetary studies conference, i am sure that all of you will agree that she would have been justly proud of this momentous achievement. tonight ’ s lecture will be delivered by the noted caribbean economist dr. arnold mcintyre. dr. mcintyre has built - up over three decades of regional experience in macroeconomic policy and economic research in small open economies, international trade policy and development and regional integration, as well as working with the regional institutions, namely the caribbean development bank, the organisation of the eastern caribbean states secretariat, the caribbean export development agency, the caribbean regional negotiating machinery ( now the office of trade negotiations, caricom secretariat ) and the caribbean regional technical assistance centre ( cartac ). his current post is deputy division chief, caribbean division 1, western hemisphere department, international monetary fund. his training, exposure and academic acuity renders him more than adequately qualified to speak authoritatively on caribbean economies. although, knowing arnold as i do, he may have been tempted to speak on our shared passion – west indies cricket. in several of our conversations about economic developments, he often says, “ ok. let ’ s now discuss what is truly important. ” tonight, however, it is caribbean economies that take centre stage. the focus of tonight ’ s lecture will be on the critical issues and challenges of strengthening economic growth and resilience in the caribbean. this topic is relevant and