' t read too much into the monthly swing. the modest increase in october might partially reflect some payback to the stronger growth in september. overall, household balance sheets continue to be in generally good shape, and this position should help maintain spending going forward. on the business side of the economy, the s & p global u. s. manufacturing purchasing managers index ( pmi ) rose slightly in november but still stands at a level indicating a slight deterioration in overall business conditions among manufacturers for the fifth straight month. today's institute for supply management manufacturing survey had a 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches similar leaning. these readings are consistent with industrial production data for manufacturing remaining flat, as it has been for the past several months. but these aggregate data mask quite different performances for interest - sensitive sectors and other businesses not so affected by rates. in the spring of 2022, when the fomc began raising interest rates, production by more interest ratea€ “ sensitive manufacturers, such as business equipment, grew at about the same rate as production by less rate - sensitive manufacturers. but starting around the middle of 2023, when the policy rate hit its peak, those stories diverged, and production by interest - sensitive manufacturing declined, while other manufacturing rose, driving a sizable gap between the two types of industries. this divergence is an indication to me that, even after the committee cut rates 75 basis points, restrictive policy is working the way it is intended to, affecting production in sectors where rates matter. it is also a reminder that there is still some distance to go in reducing the policy rate to neutral. as that occurs, i expect the gap between the two types of industries will narrow. as for the service sector, which is the larger share of business activity, the november s & p global u. s. pmi continued to increase, extending the strong momentum for services over the past year or two. while the picture for economic activity is pretty clear right now across the major data that we look at, things aren't as clear in recent data on the labor market. as expected, the october employment report showed very little increase in the number of jobs, but likely because of the temporary effects of the recent hurricanes and the strike at boeing, which also affected businesses serving boeing and its workers. the strike is over, and it is likely that most of the job losses from the hurricane have reversed. so i do expect a rebound in payroll data in the november employment report that

italy ’ s economic policy stance, lessened tensions with the european institutions and greater monetary accommodation, yields on italian government securities have declined significantly, falling to historically low levels ; yields on ten - year bonds now stand at around 1 per cent. the spread with the corresponding german bonds has narrowed, falling from the peak of almost 290 basis points recorded at the end of may to approximately 130 basis points this week ( figure 1 ). however, it remains higher than the spread of other euro - area countries such as spain and portugal. for italy, the reduction in the spread was in part due to the fall in the debt redenomination risk premium, which came to almost 30 basis points, nearing the level recorded at the start of 2018. accommodative financial conditions attenuate the contractionary effects that stem from the global situation ; for our economy, this is an opportunity that should not be missed. looking forward, the average debt burden is expected to remain on a downward path, reducing the effort needed to reach a primary surplus that is capable of ensuring balanced public accounts. the decline in interest rates on government securities has already significantly lowered the cost of wholesale bank funding and of corporate bond issues. interest rates on bank loans to firms and households also fell slightly, though they ran the risk of increasing significantly had tensions not abated on the government securities market over the course of the year. the fiscal stance tries to strike a difficult balance between ensuring sustainable public finances and supporting the economy. to counter the cyclical slowdown effectively, the choice of measures must be based on their effect on aggregate demand ; in addition, guaranteeing the attainment of the balances envisioned is essential to avoid a decline in private sector confidence. in order to reduce the debt - to - gdp ratio decisively and durably, we must improve the growth outlook through concrete initiatives that improve the environment in which economic activity takes place. removing uncertainty on the current and future situation of the public finances is essential to protecting savings, which can only be amassed and increased if the economy grows at sufficiently high rates along a stable and sustainable path. monetary policy and savings inflation in the euro area remains at levels that are still too low, and these low levels are pushing down short - term inflation expectations. the risk of a de - anchoring of medium - to long - term expectations has emerged as they have moved further away from the price stability aim ( figure 2 ). the inflation expectations at the five - year horizon of the participants