a point estimate, as in the european commission survey. we find that households provide values that are in line with official releases. 7 concerning firms, in our quarterly survey of inflation and growth expectations we ask companies to provide point estimates for both nationwide hicp inflation at different horizons, and own selling price changes. we see this survey as particularly valuable because quantitative price expectation surveys for businesses are scarce — a surprising fact, given that firms ultimately set the prices of goods and play a key role in wage setting, either through their associations ( collective bargaining ), or on an individual basis. 8 concerning property price developments, our housing market survey, conducted quarterly on a large sample of real estate agents, enables us to monitor current and expected house prices, as well as rents, and more generally to follow the main trends of the housing market. 9 we also devote considerable research efforts to using price expectations data. topics include how inflation expectations form, to what extent they are anchored, how inflation expectations influence agents ’ decisions ( including pricing decisions ), and how best to derive estimates of agents ’ inflation expectations from market data. 10 in 2018, the eurosystem set up the price - setting microdata analysis network ( prisma ), with a view to improving our understanding of price - setting behaviour, and gaining new insights into a key element of monetary policy transmission. prisma exploits various sets of granular data, including those underlying official price indices such as the consumer price index, as well as scanner data and online prices. microdata on prices are useful for studying the price - setting process, such as frequency, size and distribution of monthly price changes, a line of research that would not be possible using aggregate indices only. a recent, interesting example of what one can do with such data is a banca d ’ italia paper that singles out those individual prices that change only infrequently. almost by definition, such prices generally have a lot of inertia, and in fact they had barely changed for years. however, with the recent surge in inflation they are now displaying a distinct, if still moderate, upward trend. ( other prices are much more volatile, and it is more difficult to extract obvious signals from them ). 11 another paper based on the prisma dataset, on quality adjustment, will be presented in this meeting. 12 let me emphasise in closing that i am mentioning this network, not only because of the interesting topics it has been addressing, but also because it is

fabio panetta : credit and the financing of firms address by mr fabio panetta, deputy director general of the bank of italy, at the federazione delle banche di credito cooperativo lazio umbria sardegna, “ reload banking. la banca del domani per un nuovo sviluppo dell ’ italia ”, rome, 21 june 2013. * 1. * * the macroeconomic environment and the credit market euro - area gdp continued to contract in the first quarter of 2013, with the cyclical weakness spreading across countries. domestic demand is reflecting the impact of private and public sector deleveraging and the worsening of credit conditions. exports declined for the second successive quarter. the cyclical indicators have shown a small improvement in recent months, although the levels are still low. according to eurosystem forecasts, gdp will fall by 0. 6 per cent over the year as a whole. in italy the economic situation shows little sign of improving. in the first quarter of 2013 output contracted more than in the rest of the area, mainly owing to the decline in domestic demand. for the first time in four years exports decreased, in response to the reduction in demand from the other euro - area countries and a slowdown in sales outside europe. industrial production declined further in april before picking up slightly. analysts expect the decline in gdp to ease during the present quarter ; economic activity seems likely to stabilize in the second half of the year. according to oecd forecasts, gdp in italy will fall by 1. 8 per cent on average this year ; this would bring the cumulative contraction since 2007 to around 8. 5 percentage points, larger than that recorded during the depression of the 1930s. credit market conditions are one of the most critical aspects of the macroeconomic situation in italy. in the first four months of this year lending to firms diminished by just under 4 per cent on an annual basis ; lending to households also contracted, although to a lesser degree. the reduction in borrowing costs came to a halt last autumn, and lending rates are still above the euro - area average. small and medium - sized enterprises face increasing difficulties. the decrease in lending reflects the weakness of demand for loans, which in turn is associated with the reduction in investment, the deterioration in consumer confidence and the weakness of the property market. but the reduction in bank credit, and the increase in its cost, can also be ascribed to the tightening of supply conditions. evidence pointing in this direction