01 and 0. 09 with the s & p 500 index and the bloomberg us aggregate bond index respectively since 1970. importantly, gold has often worked as a ‘ safe haven ’, a hedge against tail risk. 11 this is also well documented in the literature. 12 to mention but one familiar example, in 2022, a financially turbulent year, gold outperformed all the other major investible asset classes with the exception of cash, showing a return close to zero ( in dollars ) while everything else was deeply negative : specifically, global bonds lost 16 per cent, 13 and global equity around 14 per cent, 14 of their respective values. ( the increased demand for gold that i mentioned earlier is an obvious factor ). source : bloomberg data, annualised standard deviation of real returns in the period 1971 - 2022. additional statistics, in nominal terms, are provided by the world gold council ( link ). for a comprehensive review, see o ’ connor, f. a., lucey, b. m., batten, j. a. & baur, d. g. ( 2015 ), ‘ the financial economics of gold — a survey ’, international review of financial analysis, 41, 186 - 205. ssga, gold as a strategic asset class, march 2023. bis, what share for gold? on the interaction of gold and foreign exchange reserve returns, november 2020. see panfili, f., daini, f., potente, f., & reale, g. ( 2015 ). l ’ oro come ‘ safe haven asset ’? evidenze empiriche basate su un confronto fra diverse attivita finanziarie ( only in italian ) ; and baur, d. g. & mcdermott, t. k. ( 2010 ). is gold a safe haven? international evidence. journal of banking & finance, 34 ( 8 ), 1886 - 1898. bloomberg global aggregate bond index. msci world index. political risk is linked to tail financial risk, but has features of its own. a recent study by the imf15 investigates the reasons behind the steady rise in the share of gold holdings in official reserve assets since the global financial crisis, particularly in emerging and developing economies. 16 according to the study, reserve managers view gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks ; as a result, gold shares increase with political uncertainty. in addition, reserve managers in emerging markets

they are back near pre - crisis levels. by contrast, spending on construction has lagged behind for longer. between 2008 and 2014 it contracted uninterruptedly, weighing heavily on the overall investment - to - gdp ratio, which to date has hardly risen at all. yet even this sector has shown some signs of a revival starting last year. the signs are clearer in the residential sector, which has long benefited from tax incentives for the renovation of existing buildings, while the non - residential construction sector is still struggling to pick up and public investment has been on a trend decline since 2010. why has investment returned to growth, at least in machinery and equipment? the bank of italy ’ s econometric model can give us some quantitative answers. according to our estimates, 1 almost half of the growth recorded is attributable to the improvement in the credit market : the strongly expansionary monetary policy stance has recently led to a reduction in the cost of capital and fostered more relaxed supply conditions. yet the gradual improvement in demand and increased confidence on the part of firms have also contributed by one third ; if the favourable economic situation continues, then this factor ’ s contribution should increase. lastly, government policies to encourage spending on capital goods have also made a significant contribution, which we estimate at around one fifth of the total. as is well known, various tax incentive schemes for see the box ‘ the trend in investment and the cyclical recovery ’ in the bank of italy ’ s annual report for 2015, 2016. investment have been set up and implemented in recent years, especially in favour of advanced technology. the results of the bank of italy ’ s annual business survey ( to which, as always, the bank ’ s regional research network has made a vital contribution ) show that in 2016 tax benefits for investment provided considerable support, and will do so to an even greater extent in 2017. we estimate that these benefits are going to boost investment by 3. 5 percentage points overall in the period 2016 - 18. the fact that they are of limited duration is also important : part of their short - term effect is that firms bring forward their spending plans. our surveys show that in 2016 investment was higher for small and medium - sized manufacturers, which had been particularly hard hit by the recession. they also indicate that investment will expand further this year : the share of manufacturing firms that plan to increase investment in 2017 was much higher than the share of those planning to reduce it. the slowdown recorded in the early