. the forward - looking indicators suggest further growth in jobs over the months ahead with vacancies at a very high level. our central forecast is for the unemployment rate to decline to below 4 per cent later this year and remain below 4 per cent next year. if this comes to pass, it would be a significant milestone. australia has not experienced unemployment rates this low since the early 1970s, almost half a century ago. the main source of uncertainty about the outlook continues to be covid - 19. the pandemic is not yet behind us and it is entirely possible that there will be more outbreaks. it also remains to be seen how households use all those savings that they have accumulated over the past two years. there are major geopolitical uncertainties and our largest trading partner, china, is working through a difficult adjustment in its property market. the sharp pick - up in inflation in parts of the 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches world, especially in the united states, has come as a surprise and is an additional source of uncertainty about the outlook. inflation for the first time in several decades, inflation has become a major issue in the global economy, although it is worth noting that inflation rates in most of asia remain low. in the united states, cpi inflation is running at more than 7 per cent and in the united kingdom it is expected to be at a similar rate soon. in germany, inflation is 5. 7 per cent and in new zealand it is 5. 9 per cent. these are the highest rates in decades and the higher inflation is turning out to be more persistent than earlier expected. this lift in inflation largely reflects the surge in global demand for goods during the pandemic coinciding with a reduced ability of the global economic system to produce and distribute goods. a related factor in a few countries, including the us and the uk, has been a decline in labour force participation, which has reduced the supply of labour and contributed to stronger wages growth. higher prices for petrol, electricity and gas have also pushed inflation up in many countries. in australia, we too have had higher inflation than we and others expected, although the increase here is smaller than in many other countries. in headline terms, inflation is 3½ per cent and in underlying terms it is 2. 6 per cent. we are feeling the effects of global supply - chain problems and higher oil prices, but we have not seen the same increases in goods prices as have occurred in the united states. it

centre. the centre will encourage regional sharing and analysis of cybersecurity information within the financial services sector. it is expected to begin operations soon. conclusion let me conclude. financial regulation remains work - in - progress. we must press on with the reform agenda and see it through to full, timely, and consistent implementation. at the same time, we must evaluate the effects of the reforms put in place and make adjustments where appropriate, to maximise their effectiveness and minimise their costs. we must strengthen the foundations for sound risk management and good conduct by working with the industry to embed deeply a culture of responsible risk - taking and ethical conduct. 6 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches we must prepare our regulatory and supervisory frameworks for the technological changes sweeping the industry - addressing new risks while promoting innovation, harnessing the benefits of technology, and promoting growth and opportunity in our societies. thank you. 7 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches