roger w ferguson, jr : us current account deficit - causes and consequences remarks by mr roger w ferguson, jr, vice - chairman of the board of governors of the us federal reserve system, to the economics club of the university of north carolina at chapel hill, chapel hill, north carolina, 20 april 2005. * * * i would like to address an issue that is receiving increasing attention lately : the u. s. current account deficit. not since joining the federal reserve board have i seen this topic show up in the financial press as frequently - and so often with such ominous overtones - as it does these days. several reasons for this come to mind. most obviously, at about 6 percent of gross domestic product, the current account deficit is now larger than it has ever been in our nation's history ; that, by itself, attracts attention. also, because the current account deficit reflects the excess of our country's imports over our exports, the deficit's descent into record territory has helped crystalize fears that the economy is losing competitiveness and that u. s. jobs and incomes are suffering as a result. finally, the larger the current account deficit becomes, the greater the number of observers who believe that a correction, and one with significant implications for the u. s. economy, is imminent. such expectations have contributed to, and in turn have been reinforced by, the slide in the dollar over the past few years. although views differ as to when a correction will take place, nearly all agree that the current trajectory of the u. s. current account deficit is unsustainable. this consensus reflects the simple logic that the deficit is causing the net indebtedness of the u. s. economy to rise more rapidly than u. s. income. in 1985, our foreign assets were about equal to our foreign liabilities, so that our net international investment position was roughly zero. by 1995, our investment position had deteriorated to negative 4 percent of gdp, and by 2004, we estimate this negative position to have reached about one - fourth of gdp. if current account deficits continue to boost the negative international investment position, eventually the cost of servicing that position, which so far has been quite modest, would rise to an unsustainable level. obviously, the current account would have to adjust to ensure that excessive debt burdens are not maintained. if nearly all observers agree that an adjustment of the u. s. current account deficit is inevitable, few agree

small businesses ; in contrast, about onethird of respondents cited poor sales as their most important problem. commercial bank responses to the sloos continue to indicate reduced demand for loans from small businesses. similarly, a poll conducted by the independent community bankers of america on january 8 revealed that a lack of loan demand was the factor most frequently cited by member institutions as constraining small business lending. improving prospects for small business lending in 2010 improvement in a number of the conditions that depressed lending in 2009, however, lead me to be somewhat optimistic that we may begin to see an increase in bank loans later this year. first, economic conditions, the most important determinant in the demand for, and availability of, small business lending, have improved considerably since the early and middle part of last year. in particular, spending by businesses and households appears to have gained some momentum. however, unemployment remains high, and concerns about the pace of job creation this year may restrain the consumer spending that is essential to overall business confidence. encouragingly, financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth, with notable declines in many risk spreads, some resumption of securitization activity, and a rebound of equity prices since their market low in early 2009. while financing conditions certainly remain tight for many small businesses, conditions would be considerably worse were it not for the action taken by the federal reserve and other government agencies in response to the financial crisis. beginning in september 2007, the federal reserve sharply reduced its target for the federal funds rate, which influences interest rates throughout the economy, and since december 2008, the target has been near zero. to improve mortgage market functioning and support housing markets and economic activity more broadly, the federal reserve has purchased large amounts of debt and mortgage - backed securities issued by fannie mae, freddie mac, and ginnie mae in addition to purchasing long - term treasury securities to help improve conditions in private credit markets. in the context of the enormous stress in many markets that characterized the financial crisis, the federal reserve also established new lending facilities and expanded existing facilities to respond to the unusual absence of liquidity in important markets and thereby enhanced the flow of credit to businesses and households. in particular, the federal reserve has provided support to securitization markets, which had been an important source of funding for loans to households and businesses. securitization markets ( other than those for mortgages guaranteed by the government or government - sponsored enterprises ) essentially shut down in mid - 2008.