remarks on the post - pandemic landscape for central bank statistics 11th ifc biennial conference pablo garcia silva, deputy governor, central bank of chile august 25th 2022 i want to thank the organizers for the opportunity to participate in this distinguished panel, providing some remarks on the challenges we face as central banks and as providers of statistics, particularly in the environment we live today, as the pandemic recedes. central banks are keenly aware of the need to provide timely, accurate, and in - depth understandings of the changing economy. this not only to inform correctly policy making, but also to satisfy the shifting demands of society regarding the environment we live in. this inevitably implies trade - offs. operative and budgetary constraints mean that a careful balance of timeliness, accuracy, and depth needs to be achieved. the ever - expanding complexity of economic relationships, and the speed at which policies have had to adapt to very large shocks, imply in my view that compared to a not so distant past timeliness is today at a premium. the times of change we live in require us to react promptly. this, however, carries the cost that both the accuracy and the depth of data will be inversely related to its timeliness. this brings about the implication that both policy making needs to consider the implicit uncertainty of the environment, and also that statistics providers need to be candid about those uncertainties when communicating with the public. central banks have found that venturing into the digital transformation with an increasing use of big data, a process that was accelerated because of the sanitary crisis, helps ease somewhat these trade - offs. many central banks have broadened the analysis using less traditional sources derived from the so - called " open " data available on the internet. they started to apply big data techniques, such as web scraping, machine learning or text analysis, for collecting and transforming data on prices, job vacancies or retail sales, among others. as a result, it became possible to release new indicators with higher frequency and timeliness. this has contributed to a better understanding of economic phenomena, providing up to date empirical support to the implementation of monetary policy and financial stability mandates. new sources of information in our case, at the central bank of chile we have embarked in several efforts to expand and improve the data available. for the first time, starting in june, we released regional gross domestic product and household consumption on a quarterly basis, with a lag of a few months. this advance enhances data robust

stagnation... research provides several different explanations for the falling trend in global real interest rates. 3 the explanation that has probably received the most attention recently is the theory of secular stagnation, developed by the american economist lawrence summers. 4 according to him, weaker global demand and lower growth, which can be long - lasting, lie behind the low level of interest rates. the weak demand is, in turn, due to various structural factors that have led more people wanting to save and fewer wanting to invest. both of these parts tend to push the real interest rate down. demographic factors may provide an explanation for why the willingne ss to save has increased. average life expectancy in the population has risen in both developed countries and emerging economies in recent decades. this may lead more people to wish to save for their old age. in a lifecycle perspective, saving is highest in middle age, when most people ’ s earnings are highest and they are very motivated to save prior to retirement. so the greater number of middle - aged people today may thus provide an explanation for the increase in saving. if the saving is intended for future retirement, one effect of the falling real interest rates may also be that many people need to save even more to reach their saving targets. another explanation for the increase in saving, particularly during the 2000s, has been put forward by the former chairman of the federal reserve, ben bernanke. 5 according to him, the increase in saving that occurred in china and other asian 3 see fischer ( 2016 ), sveriges riksbank ( 2017a ) and rachel and smith ( 2015 ) for an attempt to quantify the significance of the various explanations. 4 see summers ( 2014 ). 5 see bernanke ( 2015 ). 7 emerging economies, as well as in the major oil - producing countries, contributed to the downward pressure on interest rates. this is because the large current account surpluses in these regions have been invested on the global capital markets, resulting in low real interest rates. the falling trend in real interest rates may also be due to a reduced willingness to invest. in an article that has attracted much attention, the famous american economist robert gordon claimed that the pace of innovation has declined sharply since the 1970s. 6 in his opinion, growth between 1870 and 1970 was abnormally high thanks to relatively simple and growth - promoting innovations, such as electricity and the combustion engine. according to gordon, it will not be possible to repeat this growth as today