- side risks, logistics problems and bottlenecks in production chains remain a significant risk as these issues may persist longer than we estimate today. the abovementioned problem of a limited availability of labour resources is another risk, which is becoming increasingly important. moreover, this problem may become even more serious. this is equally relevant for both the russian labour market and the constraints experienced by other economies. a decline in global demand due to a slowdown in the world economy may become a disinflationary risk. this may happen, for instance, in the case of a large - scale new wave of the pandemic, accompanied by extensive lockdowns in the majority of countries. another scenario where inflationary pressure might also weaken faster in the russian economy is a quick easing of the restrictions on foreign travel for both outbound tourism and the inflow of labour migrants. there is a number of factors, the potential impact of which is uncertain today. in the first place, these are the volumes and quality of the grain and vegetable harvest this year both in russia and worldwide. moreover, it is still uncertain how steady global inflation is and how fast and extensively other central banks will respond to it. winding up, i would like to comment on our future actions. we hold open the prospect of further key rate rises at the upcoming meetings. we will assess whether it is reasonable to increase the key rate, as well as how long the key rate should be maintained at the level achieved taking into account economic developments, inflation trends, and largely the balance of risks to future inflation, including those associated with persistently elevated inflation expectations. in addition to the baseline scenario, we also consider various other scenarios of potential developments in the russian and global economies. the three scenarios describing the key possible circumstances in the external environment were released last week in the monetary policy guidelines for the next three years. monetary policy will be able to bring inflation back to the target regardless of whether the baseline or an alternative scenario materialises. thank you all for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

mario draghi : euro conference latvia keynote speech by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, at the euro conference latvia, riga, 12 september 2013. * * * ladies and gentlemen, i expect that many of you are familiar with the film dream team 1935. one of the most popular films in latvia last year, it tells the story of the latvian team that won the first european basketball championship in 1935. the film shows how the players overcame a series of obstacles to win the competition – and the vital contribution of their resolute team spirit. this story reflects on latvia and the euro in two ways. first, it reminds us of latvia ’ s historic position as part of europe. since riga became a member of the hanseatic league in 1282, this region has been an essential part of european integration. i am pleased that by joining the euro next year, latvia is strengthening its place at the heart of europe. second, the story highlights the determination of latvians to strive for their goals. the crisis in 2008 dealt this country a severe blow. yet the people here have shown remarkable resolve to overcome their difficulties and meet the criteria for euro entry. the authorities have protected citizens ’ wealth and ensured financial stability by maintaining the exchange rate within the agreed band, despite pressure from some outside advisers to devalue. they have undertaken an effective fiscal consolidation. and the nominal wage adjustment that has taken place across the country has, among other factors, helped to close the current account deficit by more than 10 percentage points of gdp since 2008. it is no wonder that many observers have pointed to latvia, a country that is outside the euro area, as an example to those that are inside. i understand that some people here have questions about adopting the euro. joining the single currency is a decision of great importance for any country. but i would like to reassure those with concerns that there are many good reasons to join the euro area today. in particular, new members of the euro area can benefit from the lessons we have learned since 1999. there are three lessons that i would like to emphasise here today. first, we have learned that the euro as a currency works. second, we have learned the types of policy that lead to prosperity within monetary union, and also the ones that do not. and third, we have learned that we need to complete the institutions of our economic and monetary union. let me discuss these lessons in a little more detail. the success of the euro the