the bank of mexico estimates that gdp will grow between 2 and 2. 8 percent in 2014 and between 3. 2 and 4. 2 percent in 2015. consensus analysts ’ point forecasts fall within these intervals. 2 the balance of risks for the growth scenario is to the upside. the possibility of higher - thananticipated economic expansion in the united states, as well as more constructive see inegi and banco de mexico ( 2014 ), encuesta mensual de opinion empresarial del sector manufacturero, september. see banco de mexico ( 2014 ), quarterly report, april – june 2014, summary, august ; and blue chip economic indicators, september 2014. bis central bankers ’ speeches investment sentiment stemming from progress in the implementation of structural reforms, contributes to this assessment. financial market developments since february, international financial market volatility has declined considerably due to expectations that the normalization of u. s. monetary policy will take place later than previously thought, and in a gradual way. a return to the search for yield has implied downward shifts for mexico ’ s yield curve, together with the long end of the u. s. curve. intermittent breaks in the calm since the end of july reflect the swinging of market expectations for the start of u. s. monetary tightening back toward an earlier timeframe, and heightened geopolitical pressures. in this context, the dollar has appreciated, and the prices of some emerging - market financial assets have fallen somewhat. in mexico, the recent increase in global risk aversion has fueled a higher term premium for government bonds and along with it, a steeper yield curve. however, the peso has depreciated less than the currencies of many other emerging - market economies. both markets have behaved in an orderly manner, with traded volumes high and bid - ask spreads tight. going forward, greater financial volatility and further downward pressure in asset prices cannot be ruled out. interest rates on a wide variety of securities in advanced countries, including high - yield bonds, remain close to all - time lows amid market uncertainty and speculative conditions, suggesting that these levels are not sustainable. in the monetary policy meeting of last july, the u. s. federal reserve said that it was within closer reach of its medium - term targets. also, many fomc members noted that if convergence to these targets accelerates, it would be appropriate to begin the tightening phase sooner than previously foreseen. in the

in physical infrastructure, and enhancing public security. concluding remarks mexico has seen an incipient economic upturn this year, driven by stronger external demand and higher domestic spending. the panorama is favorable given more consistent u. s. economic performance and mexican structural reforms in the first stages of implementation. mexico ’ s economy has benefited from the continuation of portfolio capital inflows amid benign financial conditions, notwithstanding some recent volatility. however, a change in market sentiment could trigger a reversal of this relative financial bonanza at any moment. although mexico enjoys strong macroeconomic fundamentals, financial risks should continue to be monitored. continuation of recent upward trends in inflation as well as factors that may generate additional price pressures are risks that must be carefully watched in order to make convergence to the permanent inflation target a reality. current discussions on recovering the real value of the minimum wage underscore the need to keep the upper hand in the fight against inflation. finally, progress on structural reform is encouraging, but implementation over time must be adequate for expected benefits to fully materialize. bis central bankers ’ speeches