##alization and geoeconomic fragmentation, which would also be reflected in r *. another key challenge is high public debt. the long - term trajectory of r * is a crucial determinant of fiscal sustainability, while unsustainable public debt may raise the natural rate. in sum, current information suggests that the natural rate is likely to hover close to the pre - pandemic levels. this said, what is certain is that the ongoing secular shifts and the risk of new shocks leave the outlook for r * highly uncertain. in any case, policy makers need to form an opinion on r * and long - term real rates. how can this challenge be addressed? 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches in my view, policy makers and researchers need to be guided by the following three principles : modesty, openness and flexibility. as to modesty, researchers should acknowledge the limitations and the uncertainty regarding both the underlying assumptions and the estimates of the natural rate. policymakers, in turn, may have to depart from the expectation of basing their decisions on the point estimates of r *. failing to acknowledge the high degree of uncertainty underlying r *, we risk ending up with false perceptions and policy biases. the second principle, openness, may help address these challenges. as the underlying drivers of r * appear too complex to be compressed into a single estimate, assigning a path for the natural rate by following a broad - based and data - based approach may be a more effective approach. for instance, we may want to explore new indicators, such as measures of innovation activity, to gain a timely view on tfp growth. a close and continuous dialogue between research and policy is crucial in this context. this conference provides an excellent example in this regard, as it features invited speeches and sessions that are highly policy relevant, covering key challenges for monetary policy and topical themes in e. g. fiscal policy, robotics, and wage inequality. when it comes to the third principle, flexibility will remain essential in forming views on the future of r *. most notably, flexibility is warranted to adjust our views on the natural rate over time, when new signals from its underlying forces emerge. to conclude, estimates of the natural rate of interest r * can, to some degree, serve as a point of orientation, if policymakers acknowledge that they are only summary statistics, which distil certain aspects of the data and are subject to the underlying assumptions and uncertainties. measures of the

and socio - economically disadvantaged clientele is minimized. to translate this into action, the report has suggested that banks may use the services of the “ business facilitators ” to bring people and the banks together without having to handle 6 / 7 cash and the “ business correspondents ” who will bring them together and will also handle cash for providing doorstep services. nbfcs, ngo - mfis, section 25 companies, cooperative societies, corporate entities, post - offices, etc. can be identified as possible correspondents while even informal entities like farmers ’ clubs, ngos, cooperatives, rural kiosks, socially conscious individuals, etc. can work as the facilitators. all of us at rbi and our governor, in particular, have appreciated the suggestions and we hope that the banks will use these avenues to accelerate the process of financial inclusion. before i conclude let me compliment cab, undp and the planning commission for very thoughtfully designing the programmes mainly for the state government officials who are at the cutting edge of human development initiatives. the programme on “ human development and state finances ” covers substantially the whole gamut of human development and financing issues. all of you will have the opportunity to hear and interact with well - known academicians and practitioners like shri sridharan, dr. seeta prabhu, prof. j b g tilak, prof. d k srivastava, dr. amarjeet sinha besides undp administrator, dr. kemal dervis, shri jayant patil, finance minister, government of maharashtra and other experts in the high power panel discussion scheduled in mumbai. i will also urge you to use this programme as a platform to interact among yourselves and share experiences as seldom you have an occasion when so many development practitioners come together at one place and get also to hear from so many renowned people. i am sure this programme will help you realize the importance of your role in the process of the country ’ s development and reinvigorate you intellectually and emotionally to seize the opportunity to realize the millennium development goals of the un and human development goals of the tenth five year plan. i wish your deliberations in the programme a grand success. 7 / 7