the imf ’ s annual report on exchange arrangements and exchange restrictions ( areaer ). the index ranges between 0 ( no restrictions ) and 1 ( total restriction ). figure 4 gross external financing needs change in gross external financing needs, 2018 - 06 ( per cent of gdp ) algeria tunisia lebanon egypt emde average turkey morocco - 5 - 10 jordan gross external financing needs, 2018 source : imf, world economic outlook, october 2019. note : gross external financing needs = current account deficit plus short - term debt. figure 5 net capital flows ( per cent of gdp ) algeria egypt - 2 - 1 - 4 fdi portfolio other investments - 6 net financial flows fdi portfolio other investments jordan net financial flows lebanon - 5 - 2 - 4 fdi portfolio other investments - 10 net financial flows fdi portfolio other investments morocco net financial flows tunisia - 1 - 1 fdi portfolio other investments net financial flows fdi source : imf, world economic outlook, october 2019. note : net flows are given by inflows minus outflows. portfolio other investments net financial flows table 1 current account balance and general government deficit ( per cent of gdp ) algeria egypt jordan lebanon morocco tunisia current general current general current general current general current general current general account gov't account gov't account gov't account gov't account gov't account gov't balance deficit balance deficit balance deficit balance deficit balance deficit balance deficit - 16. 4 - 15. 3 - 3. 7 - 10. 9 - 9. 0 - 8. 5 - 19. 3 - 7. 5 - 2. 1 - 4. 2 - 9. 7 - 5. 3 - 16. 5 - 13. 1 - 6. 0 - 12. 5 - 9. 4 - 3. 7 - 23. 1 - 8. 9 - 4. 0 - 4. 5 - 9. 3 - 6. 2 - 13. 2 - 6. 6 - 6. 1 - 10. 4 - 10. 6 - 3. 7 - 25. 9 - 8. 6 - 3. 4 - 3. 5 - 10. 2 - 5. 9 - 9. 6 - 4. 8 - 2. 4 - 9. 4 - 7. 0 - 4. 8 - 25. 6 - 11. 0 - 5. 4 - 3. 7 - 11. 1 - 4. 6 source : imf, world economic outlook, october 2019. table 2 current account position and foreign exchange debt exposure current

monetary policy after a perfect storm : festina lente speech by fabio panetta governor of the bank of italy 3rd bank of finland international monetary policy conference on ‘ monetary policy in low and high inflation environments ’ 1 helsinki, 26 june 2024 good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. i would like to thank the bank of finland for organizing this conference, and governor rehn for inviting me. it is a great pleasure to be here. finland has been crowned the happiest country in the world for the seventh consecutive year in the recently published world happiness report : 2 i am really happy to be part of that happiness. we are at a turning point in the european monetary policy cycle. in june, the governing council decided to cut the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points after holding them at high levels for nine months. turning points inevitably attract attention, and the policy debate is now focused on the next steps : ecb watchers are eagerly looking for clues about the pace of the normalization path. i will briefly review what has happened to inflation over the past three years. i will then discuss some of the remaining concerns about the disinflation process, namely price developments in the services sector and the role of profits, input costs and labour costs. after that, i will examine the outlook for inflation and growth from a forward - looking perspective. i will outline my thoughts on the evolution of monetary policy before concluding. my main message is that the disinflation process requires two ingredients. we must keep adjusting policy rates to complete the process and smoothly reach our 2 per cent inflation target in a scenario where our expectations turn out to be broadly correct. but i would like to thank piergiorgio alessandri, marco bernardini, francesco corsello, alessandro notarpietro, marianna riggi, alessandro secchi, fabrizio venditti and eliana viviano for their contributions and comments. festina lente – “ hasten slowly ” – is the latin motto that epitomised a decisive but calm policy action for augustus, the first emperor of rome. the motto was also used in xvi - century florence by cosimo i de ’ medici, whose fleet aptly adopted as a symbol a turtle endowed with sails. helliwell j. f., r. layard, j. d. sachs, j. - e. de neve, l. b. aknin and s. wang ( eds. ), 2024