point to further deceleration in economic activity. in addition to the deepening tourism slump, the mid - july domestic turbulence and working day losses due to religious holidays dampened production activities. therefore, although the sharp drop in july ’ s industrial production was offset by a rapid recovery in august, we expect production to fall below the second - quarter level in the third quarter. yet, i would like to remind you that working day losses caused by the holiday in september will make it difficult to track the underlying trend in production as in july. despite weaker domestic demand, growing eu demand continued to bolster turkey ’ s exports in the third quarter. turkey ’ s market shifting flexibility continues to cushion exports against the negative effects of geopolitical tensions on external demand. we expect domestic demand and economic activity to recover starting from the last quarter of 2016. thanks to more accommodative monetary conditions and other measures, the recovery in consumer loans in recent months support our projections of improvement in the last quarter. against this background, we envisage that the economic growth will be mild in 2016, which is marked by consecutive adverse shocks. in view of waning uncertainties in the upcoming period, we assess that producer and consumer confidence will be re - built, demand - stimulating policies will support consumption expenditures and negative contribution of net exports will fall, which will all contribute to economic recovery. in addition to the partial improvement both in tourism revenues and exports to russia in the normalization process, we envisage that the recently released incentive packages will contribute to growth next year. on the other hand, uncertainties regarding the pace of global growth and monetary policies of advanced economies as well as the course of capital flows and geopolitical developments pose a downside risk to growth. moreover, the persistent contraction in the tourism sector and the gradual decline in the favorable effects of commodity prices are likely to cause some increase in the current account deficit in the short term ( chart 14 ). esteemed guests, as you all know, food, energy and import prices also play a great role in inflation forecasts. therefore, before moving on to forecasts, i will briefly talk about our assumptions regarding these variables. we revised our assumptions for crude oil prices for the upcoming period upwards compared to 7 / 10 bis central bankers'speeches the july inflation report, while our assumptions for usd - denominated import prices saw some downward revision ( charts 15 and 16 ). as depicted on the slide, in terms of annual averages

levels of safety, security and reliability. perhaps the most significant contribution of technology has been in attempting to bring down the cost of financial services by using economies of scale. technology has also been used in removing geographical barriers and reaching out to the unbanked – the poor are unreached but not unreachable. the use of electronic payment modes to disburse the governments social benefit transfers illustrates this point. technology should be used in such a manner that you have a diversified product range to bridge the supply gap at the same time keeping in view the customers convenience in mind. bis central bankers ’ speeches has it delivered in india in terms of reducing the costs? if not why? is the government / regulatory intervention the best way forward? what are the advantages or dangers to such an approach? channel security to compete successfully in today ’ s tough market place, financial institutions need to retain the trust of their customers – a trust which relies not only on their capacity to deliver good value services, but also on their ability to protect people, assets, premises and the highly sensitive data they hold. there is always an element of hidden fear as far as it based operations are concerned, the fear of the unknown. banks need to ensure that the best of controls and security measures are in place. customer education is the key to customer trust. are there steps taken towards customer education as far as it based service delivery channels are concerned? are these adequate? how to bridge the gap? having identified some of the gaps, let me now try and offer suggestions to bridge these gaps. it and business alignment alignment can be described as the timely and appropriate application of it in harmony with business objectives, strategies and requirements. alignment occurs when the respective strategies are interwoven in such a way that the right things are done to deliver greater value to the organisation. after all, a successful alignment is a two way relationship, a give and take between it and business. though it has the capability to reduce costs, standardise processes, the benefits of successful it - business alignment are beyond these i. e. increased efficiency of implementation & integration, reduced cycle time, increased enterprise agility and the ultimate benefit of improving the bottom line. until recently it played a docile role in business planning. it is now time for banks to move over from being merely an implementation tool to shaping business strategy. the principal difficulty is that there are few instances of business oriented it strategies as most are focussed on technology products of one shape or another