will unwind in the second quarter. the other new factor we had to take into account was the federal budget. for the purposes of our mpr and interest rate announcement, we took a close look at the finance department ’ s projections of the multiplier effect of the fiscal shock. our analysis is that the department ’ s projections are reasonable in that they are within the range of estimates you would find in the economic literature, as well as in our own staff research. there is, of course, greater uncertainty as to how the budget measures will affect growth in the longer term, particularly since they will need to work their way through the household sector. in our report, we outlined the risk that households may be more inclined to save than historical experience would suggest. taking all of these changes on board, our projected growth profile is generally higher than it was in january. we are now projecting real gdp growth of 1. 7 per cent this year, 2. 3 per cent next year and 2 per cent in 2018. our forecast suggests that the economy will likely use up its excess capacity somewhat earlier than we predicted in january – sometime in the second half of 2017. however, there is more than the usual degree of uncertainty around that timing. it is always tricky to estimate an economy ’ s potential output, and the difficulty is compounded when the economy is going through a major structural adjustment, as canada is right now. we know that the collapse in investment in the commodity sector will mean a slowdown in the economy ’ s potential growth rate. in the near term, we ’ ve lowered our estimate of potential output growth from 1. 8 per cent to 1. 5 per cent. in terms of the bank ’ s primary mandate, total cpi inflation is currently below our 2 per cent target. the upward pressure on imported prices coming from the currency depreciation is being more than offset by the impact of lower consumer energy prices and the downward pressure coming from excess capacity in the economy. as these factors diminish, total inflation is projected to converge with core inflation and be sustainably on target sometime in the second half of next year. to sum up where we are, while recent economic data have been encouraging on balance, they ’ ve also been quite variable. the global economy retains the capacity to disappoint further, the complex adjustment to lower terms of trade will restrain canada ’ s growth over much of our forecast horizon, and households ’ reactions to the government ’ s fiscal measures will bear

gent sejko : the role of central banks and the banking sector on the path to eu welcome address by mr gent sejko, governor of the bank of albania, at the annual conference of the bank of albania, co - organised with the albanian association of banks, tirana, 13 november 2024. * * * honourable minister of finance honourable madam minister of state and chief negotiator, honourable chair of parliamentary committee on economy and finance, dear president of the albanian association of banks shella, dear fellow governors and guests it is a great honour and pleasure to welcome you all to the annual conference of the bank of albania. please allow me, in this occasion to congratulate the albanian association of banks for its 25th anniversary. the albanian association of banks, the co - organiser of this conference, has proven to be a serious collaborating and coordinating platform for the banking industry, in addition to being a visionary institution and our important partner on our journey towards development and modernisation. this conference, the 17th one, is a crucial moment in our annual business schedule as it always offers a solid ground for communicating with our institutional partners, field experts and the public at large. it enables us to look away from the challenges of the present, to consider issues of strategic importance for the sustainable and long - term development of albania, as well as to try - through open and constructive dialogue, to identify the policies and adequate instruments for addressing them. in this view, i would like to highlight that despite the rapid economic and political developments of the year we are leaving behind, the long - term headline from 2024 will be our receiving of a green light and the start - in october - of the official process of negotiations for membership in the union european. this new chapter poses a busy agenda ahead of regulatory, legislative and institutional reforms. their realisation is both a prerequisite for our membership, as well as a major and indispensable step on our way of progress. for this reason, we have decided to dedicate the proceedings of this conference to the role of central banks and the banking sector in the integration process. dear guests, before addressing my views on our conference's topic, i would like to focus briefly on the current status of the albanian economy and its financial system. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches albania of 2024 offers a completely different economic reality compared to a decade ago, when the country received the status of potential candidate for membership. despite