of objectives : the objectives of economic and financial stabilisation on the one hand, and the objectives of prevention and better resilience to terms of trade shocks on the other. as regards economic and financial stabilisation, macroeconomic policies, in particular fiscal policies, play a central role in this field. of course, in order for these to be implemented, it is necessary to have sufficient countercyclical room for manoeuvre. consideration should also be given to how fiscal consolidation policies can preserve investment priorities for sustainable development, based on the development of infrastructure and human capital ( health, education ). the effects of fiscal consolidation can thus be mitigated by changes in the composition of government revenue and expenditures, more favourable to long term growth. as regards the exchange rate, the optimal policies to be put in place in developing countries facing exogenous shocks are the subject of debate. while exchange rate flexibility cushions a terms of trade shock, it is also associated with risks of amplification, via the triggering of inflationary spirals or the foreign exchange losses that economic agents must bear. fixed exchange rate regimes have the advantage of anchoring the expectations of economic agents and thus providing a favorable framework for investment. they will of course be all the more credible if they benefit from a convertibility guarantee, as is the case of the franc zone monetary unions. furthermore, for poor and vulnerable countries with limited access to international financing and sometimes dependent on official development assistance, the coordination of national public authorities and international development partners is an important issue. the effective implementation of macroeconomic stabilisation policies is conditional on the financing of their balances of payments, often under the aegis of the imf. in this regard, i would 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches like to welcome the commitment, announced simultaneously by the cemac member countries on 23 december, to open and rapidly conclude bilateral negotiations with the imf in order to better structure their adjustment efforts. at the same time, the imf should adjust its intervention tools and the conditionalities associated with its programmes in poor and vulnerable countries in order to fully respond to the scale of commodity price shocks. first, the imf should provide, directly or indirectly, a volume of financing commensurate with the shock. second, the objective of the imf should be to find ways of making the least costly fiscal adjustment in terms of growth, while strengthening its recommendations on the prevention of this type of shock. this brings me to

francois villeroy de galhau : what responses to terms of trade shocks in poor and vulnerable countries? speech by mr francois villeroy de galhau, governor of the bank of france, at the bank of france - ferdi ( fondation pour les etudes et recherches sur le developpement international ) conference, paris, 24 january 2017. * * * good morning and welcome to all in the auditorium of the banque de france. it is a great pleasure to welcome you here with patrick guillaumont, president of ferdi and coorganiser of this conference, to whom i extend my warmest greetings. i would also like to welcome jan gunning, professor emeritus at the free university of amsterdam, as well as all the speakers who honour us with their presence. the banque de france has established research partnerships with several foundations and universities : the paris school of economics, the toulouse school of economics and the fondation nationale des sciences politiques. the partnership with ferdi ( fondation pour les etudes et recherches sur le developpement international ), which we are pleased about, focuses on extending and enriching discussions and research on monetary and financial issues related to development, including : the financing of development, in particular the mobilisation of domestic and international savings, the competitiveness of african countries and exchange regimes and strategies, regional integration in africa, which was the theme of our first conference in 2014, the “ curse ” of commodities in low - income countries, and the management of the dutch syndrome and the terms of trade cycles, i. e. changes in the relative prices of exports compared to imports : this is the theme of today ’ s conference. the subject chosen is highly topical, following the very sharp drop in commodity prices, in particular oil prices, between mid - 2014 and early 2016, the effects of which on exporting countries had been underestimated, both by the countries themselves, but also by the international financial community. thus, the economic growth forecasts for sub - saharan africa made by the main international organisations were revised downwards only very late. in january 2016, the imf still expected sub - saharan africa to grow by 4 % in 2016 and by 4. 7 % in 2017, but the forecasts in the october 2016 global economic outlook were only 1. 4 % for 2016 and 2. 9 % for 2017, almost solely as a result of the recession in the oil economies. the ivorian economy