we protect people from unnecessarily paying for openly pushed services they do not need and overspending on fees. i will spare you the details, but will say that we are developing regulatory measures to reduce consumer costs related to interaction with financial institutions. that would present an opportunity to improve people ’ s well - being, and we should use it. an increase in consumer lending should be proportional to income growth. if that is the case, people can solve their financial problems through credit, rather than having to consume less and economise on the basics to pay debt. the optimum tool to contain overly rapid growth is direct restrictions for banks to issue loans of certain categories ( these restrictions are defined as ‘ macroprudential limits ’ in the draft law before the duma ). unlike other tools, they will not add burdens on bank capital. that is, they will not hinder the expansion of industrial, mortgage and other lending but will help us limit the risks of excessive debt burdens of consumers. we look to the duma ’ s support in this issue. lending to major corporate borrowers has also been expanding. this year, it has recorded solid growth outrunning the pre - pandemic level. importantly, lending to small businesses is growing at record high paces, helped in particular by governmental programmes for small and medium3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches sized businesses. our monetary policy, aimed at reducing inflation and returning it to the 4 % target, will help entrepreneurs who are investing in business development so they can make definite plans for the future. that will be possible thanks to low inflation, which works for predictability and lowers business risk. also, loan rates are steadier with inflation close to the target, which means that it is easier for companies to forecast debt burdens. now on to our forecast. under the baseline forecast, next year inflation will come close to the target of 4 – 4. 5 %. our policy rate will range between 7. 3 % and 8. 3 % on average over the year. that level is relatively high but necessary to bring inflation back to target in the course of next year as we work towards that. i would like to stress again that the bank of russia ’ s policy will not hamper economic activity. on the contrary, it will foster sustained and balanced growth. we have to understand that sustained growth rates are certain to be lower than in the current rapid economic recovery. the key rate is on course

ruble exchange rate dynamics. however, sustainable oil price reduction comparable to last year ’ s patterns does not seem feasible. the oil market will remain volatile, with oil prices changing in both directions. oil price fluctuations are followed by fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. however, one - way change in the ruble exchange rate has stopped. this means that the exchange rate impact on the inflation will gradually wear out. the restraining influence of low economic activity will begin to fully impact inflation dynamics in the second half of 2015. by this time, the effect of temporary factors, such as the depreciation of the ruble and foreign trade restrictions that have led to acceleration in consumer prices growth, will be exhausted. as we have already noted, inflation will reach its peak in 2015 q2, and afterwards it is forecast to fall. in march 2016, inflation will approximate to 9 % before falling down to 4 % in the medium run. such inflation dynamics will be accompanied by economic recovery. the bottom of economic recession is expected in 2016 q1, later on the economy will start growing on a quarterly basis. by that time the initial adjustment of the economy to the new environment will be over. higher global oil prices, the economic recovery of trade partner countries, and the formation bis central bankers ’ speeches of new sources of financing will also contribute to this growth. in 2017, economic recovery is expected to exceed 6 %. we shall continue to regularly update our forecast by monitoring movements of a wide range of indicators taking into account not only annual inflation dynamics, but also quarterly, monthly and weekly ones. if new pro - inflationary factors do not appear and inflation decelerates according to our forecast, we shall continue cutting the key rate. in conclusion, i ’ d like to note that although the current economic slowdown is of both structural and cyclical nature, structural factors and the need to create new growth sources still play a major role. this means that monetary policy measures are not sufficient to solve all the problems facing the economy. special efforts are needed to promote new investments in the economy, improve business climate, increase the mobility of labour and its skills, enhance the efficiency of natural monopolies and government expenditure, improve state governance, and develop infrastructure and logistics. only these efforts will ensure sustained long - term economic growth based on increasing productivity and economic structural changes. bis central bankers ’ speeches