approach remains conservative as we assess risks and conduct monetary policy. inflation stays close to 4 %. more so, it has never climbed above this figure since the second half of 2017. although the rise in inflation early next year is set to be driven by transient factors, considering the need to limit their negative effects and ensure a speedy return of inflation to 4 %, it is critical that the response of monetary policy is well - timed. a consistently conservative monetary policy stance will enable us to curb both inflation risks and the response of inflation expectations. this will lay the groundwork for looser monetary policy by late 2019 – early 2020, if the situation unfolds consistent with our forecast. before i proceed to answer your questions, let me also inform you about the changes we want to introduce beginning in march 2019 as regards our communications related to key rate decisions. first, a key rate press release in the follow - up to our policy board meeting will include a reforecast. second, a monetary policy report will be published in a week after a board meeting. these arrangements will serve to better reflect the logic of the already made decision. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

##ciation, and the oil price growth stipulated by the scenario. let me remind you that according to the scenario oil price will be $ 80. this is our baseline scenario. at the same time we are aware of the pessimistic sentiments in the market due to the dynamics of oil contract quotations observed over the last months. therefore, alongside with the baseline forecast, we have worked out an alternative scenario bis central bankers ’ speeches which we consider to be unlikely to develop and which provides for oil price fall to $ 60 per barrel from early 2015 and during the whole three - year period. in this case russian economy will require more profound adjustment to the new conditions in 2015 – 2016. in this scenario, the current account surplus will amount to approximately $ 40 billion in 2015. it will further increase due to the slight rise of non - oil and gas exports and decline of imports. economic growth rates will depend on the pace of import substitution. slow development of import - substituting production in 2015 – 2016 may result in “ mild ” recession. nevertheless, output and employment decrease will be considerably less than in 2008 – 2009. in this scenario we expect economic recovery growth to over 5 % in 2017. under this scenario, in 2015, inflation acceleration may be higher than in the baseline scenario due to the lower ruble appreciation during the year which is also expected due to the compensation of the exchange rate overshoot. during the following two years, due to the deeper output gap inflation will decrease even faster than stipulated in the baseline scenario reaching the target of 4 % before late 2017. meanwhile, the monetary policy will be aimed at stabilisation of inflation expectations, prevention of inflation spiral and its gradual decrease due to the prospects of economic growth. it is also possible that under this scenario we will be able to ease our policy even earlier. as the capital outflow during this period will mainly result from external debt payments, in this scenario we estimate the total capital outflow to be at the same level as in the baseline scenario. under this scenario we are ready to allocate about $ 85 billion for fx transactions in order to stabilise the balance of payments that is also acceptable from the foreign exchange reserve adequacy point of view. it should be noted that the reserve level will be restored following the economy adjustment to the new conditions as we intend to conduct mainly reverse transactions. the bank of russia will undertake operations in the foreign exchange market based on the balance of payments forecast and the estimation of balances