is based on figure 4 in the latest available paper draft ( august 2020 ). the closure of childcare facilities and schools was a key element of the lockdown measures that were implemented in many countries. a renewed surge in infection numbers could result in such measures being reintroduced. fuchs - schundeln et al. ( 2020 ) estimate that, in germany, up to 11 % of employees could be forced to stop working and stay at home instead in case school closures are extended. adams et al. ( 2020 ) present survey data indicating that childcare duties imposed a much larger burden on women during the coronavirus crisis. alon et al. ( 2020 ) conclude that women in particular will have to cope with substantial financial losses as a result of the additional burden due to childcare duties. it is likely that single mothers with low incomes are particularly affected by such losses. collectively, the available evidence is consistent in concluding that government - imposed lockdown measures primarily affect people in lower income brackets, younger employees and women, especially those with children childcare duties. the containment measures are thus at least temporarily contributing to a reinforcement of existing social inequalities. closing remarks i would now like to conclude my remarks. the covid - 19 pandemic has affected different parts of our society in different ways. the heterogeneous evolution of case numbers resulted in lockdown measures of varying stringency, which were in part contingent on the sectoral composition of individual countries. as a result, the economic impact of the containment measures was more severe in some countries than in others. the decisive measures taken by fiscal policy makers at national and european level as well as the ecb ’ s monetary policy will help to mitigate a looming economic divergence between individual european countries. it will be essential to find a common european response to these shared challenges, and to implement it on the basis of the ground - breaking decisions taken at the eu summit in july. the funds available under the next generation eu instrument should be used to strengthen the growth potential of all countries in a sustainable manner. in this context, measures to foster the transition of the economy to green and digital technologies should play a central role. at the same time, such measures can permanently reduce differences among individual euro area countries. this is also beneficial for monetary policy. a lower degree of divergence in economic developments within the euro area increases the effectiveness of monetary policy measures. completing the architecture of the euro area would also facilitate the implementation of adequate european

the current hiking cycle, the first leg of monetary policy transmission – to financing conditions – has been very strong. compared with previous hiking cycles, firms'lending rates have increased at a faster pace and credit volumes have weakened more markedly. transmission to the bank lending channel is likely to continue unfolding as lenders may become more prudent in light of rising funding costs and a slowing economy. moreover, interest rates on outstanding debt will continue to increase as loans are progressively repriced. all in all, in my view, the transmission of our policy tightening to financing conditions seems to be well underway. the second leg of transmission relates to the way in which changes in financing conditions will affect economic activity, as firms and households adjust their plans for consumption, investment and savings accordingly. the transmission of monetary policy tightening to the real economy is proceeding at a slower pace, with a substantial share of the transmission still in the pipeline. for example, real estate activity has slowed down amid the weakening of property valuations. for the economy as a whole, modelbased estimates continue to suggest that, owing to the typical lags in monetary transmission, the bulk of the impact of our tightening is expected to materialise only in 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the course of this year and thereafter. 1 the downward impact of our tightening so far on gdp and inflation is estimated to average around 2 percentage points over the 2023 - 25 period, with the strongest effect expected on gdp growth this year and on inflation over the next two years. it is also worth noting that the speed of transmission varies across the euro area. in particular, the transmission to households is likely to be faster in countries where variable rate mortgages predominate over mortgages at fixed rate. at the same time, uncertainties regarding transmission remain, mainly in relation to two sources. first, the current hiking cycle is unprecedented in speed. moreover, it follows a long period of accommodative monetary policy and was accompanied by the recalibration of balance sheet policies, all of which limits comparability with historical regularities. second, the tightening of our policy stance occurred in reaction to an unprecedented constellation of shocks hitting the euro area over the last three years, which had a disruptive effect on economic conditions and the inflation environment. the fact that we are still confronted with the overlapping legacy effects of these shocks may imply that monetary policy transmission is proceeding differently this time around compared with what historical regularities might suggest. the