subsidised mortgage loans slightly contracted in october, but still equals nearly 30 % of the disbursements. concessional lending terms will remain in place until the end of 2021 h1. a number of programmes launched to support corporate lending have already been terminated. we are going to monitor how market interest rates and non - price lending conditions will be adjusting in this situation. the current economic situation is another essential factor influencing our decisions. the epidemiological situation has worsened today, which expectedly has a restraining effect, but this impact is currently considerably lower than in 2020 q2. although the situation is not uniform across industries, the decrease in economic activity is not as drastic as in spring and early summer when large - scale anti - pandemic restrictions were in place. furthermore, companies and households have already adjusted to the changed environment to a certain extent, including additional requirements. therefore, we may rather talk of a pause in recovery processes. we can observe that economic trends and financial flows are changing unevenly. they have returned to normal or even exceeded this level in a number of sectors, while other industries are far from a complete recovery. specifically, industries manufacturing and selling consumer and investment goods have increased their financial flows above pre - pandemic levels. in contrast, sectors producing intermediate goods ( that is, intended for further processing ) and many consumer service industries are still to restore their financial flows and business activity. if we estimate the year 2020 in general, gdp will decline by about 4 % owing to high performance in q3. the economy bounced back significantly in response to the easing of restrictions and support measures. it is also worth noting that, amid limited opportunities to travel abroad this year, households kept over 1. 5 trillion rubles earlier spent for outbound tourism. in 2020, these funds could partially be saved, but a portion of this amount was spent in russia, propping up domestic demand. fiscal measures provide significant support to the economy. this year, budget spending increased by over 14 % against 2019. 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches recovery growth is expected to resume steadily in spring 2021. given the economic situation and price movements, the ratio of proinflationary and disinflationary factors and risks has altered considerably. indeed, demand trends, especially amid the drastic aggravation of the epidemiological situation, continue to contain price growth. however, this impact is currently offset by the above - mentioned proinflationary factors.

of the crisis. according to our estimates, we consider that the potential for monetary policy easing has been exhausted. its further easing could additionally increase proinflationary risks. nonetheless, monetary policy will remain accommodative on average throughout 2021, supporting the recovery of the russian economy. the baseline scenario provides for a gradual return to neutral monetary policy. we will assess the timeline and pace for this return taking into account our goal to maintain inflation at our target. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches