eurosystem, which is the guardian of the euro for the sake of the people of europe, knows that our fellow citizens want the single currency to be at least as solid as were their previous national currencies : in france, to give only one example, 96 % of the people are calling for the euro to be at least as solid as the franc ; needless to say that it is the same in germany and in all other countries of the monetary union. that is the reason why i fully subscribe to the declaration of our president, wim duisenberg, in the name of the governing council : “ european citizens can be assured that the future of the euro is that of a strong currency, based on price stability and the strength of the european economy. ” a stable, a solid, a strong euro is in the interest of europe. – on the people ’ s republic of china, i would like to praise the highly responsible attitude which has been adopted by beijing during the asian crisis. china has played a decisive role in helping stabilize the full body of the region and has gained an immense credit not only in asia but in the global community as a whole. i entirely share the sentiment of premier zhu on the role of the prudent monetary policy of the people ’ s bank of china in that success. i have been impressed by the quality of the contributions delivered in the occasion of the 21st century forum. if there is a lesson i draw from the exchange of views, here under the auspices of the national committee of the chinese people ’ s political consultative conference, it would be the decisive importance of foreign direct investments in the development of the economy of china. fdi ’ s are the best recipe for a successful and balanced globalization.

francois villeroy de galhau : secular stagnation and growth measurement speech by mr francois villeroy de galhau, governor of the bank of france, at the secular stagnation and growth measurement conference, organized by the bank of france, paris, 16 january 2017. * * * accompanying slides ladies and gentlemen [ slide 1 ], i am very pleased to welcome you all to paris, for this conference on “ secular stagnation and growth measurement ”. we should always be cautious when using expressions as categorical as “ secular stagnation ”, and which describe the long term : alvin hansen, who coined it in 1938 with his famous “ full recovery or stagnation ”, lived long enough – until 1975 – to see thirty years of almost full recovery, instead of stagnation. nevertheless, this risk, popularized again recently by larry summers, is a matter of concern for central bankers. why? because a persistent slowdown in trend output growth could make the economy more vulnerable to shocks that push the natural interest rate below the effective lower bound. whether secular or lasting for many years, very slow growth and inflation also challenge the efficacy of conventional monetary policy tools. they can affect the sustainability of public and private debt. and beyond central banking concerns, they can also alter the functioning of our social models. let me just clarify that i will not speak about monetary policy today, as we are in our “ silent period ” before the governing council meeting. allow me to say simply that some of the more recent comments about a “ come back of inflation ", which would allegedly put the governing council under strain, seem greatly exaggerated. so, where do we stand? the slowdown in per capita growth in advanced economies can actually be traced back to the 1970s [ slide 2 ]. it worsened in several stages, the latest starting in the mid2000s, after the ict revolution and before the great recession. the issue is that this prolonged slowdown raises questions about future potential growth, largely due to uncertainty about productivity trends. to assess the risks, i would like to elaborate on the three hypotheses that form the basis for today ’ s conference [ slide 3 ] : first, are we simply underestimating growth? second, is the slowdown a demand phenomenon? third, is it a persistent phenomenon due to a slowdown in the pace of innovation? 1. are we underestimating growth? new technologies usually lead to a mismeasurement of output.