production does not look very promising. sugar production is expected to decline further significantly this year due to continuing milling problems and drop in cane production. lower cane production is due largely to very low rainfall this year while mill up grade works has not delivered the efficiencies that were expected. consumption indicators show that consumer spending has recovered somewhat. net value added tax ( vat ) collections in the first 6 months of the year rose by around 7 percent on a yearly basis ; a good part of this growth in vat revenue could be due to the growth in tourism. bank lending figures also support some increase in consumption demand. looking ahead, recent survey results on future business expectations indicate a strengthening of investor confidence as more businesses expect an increase in investment in plant and machinery as well as in building and construction. labour market sentiments also look positive. in line with our expectations, growth in exports was positive in the first four months of the year, rising by 16 percent, on an annual basis. this is attributed to increases in earnings from fish, mineral water, timber and gold. looking ahead, total exports are expected to grow by 12 percent this year. last year, exports fell by 16 percent. on the other hand, imports declined by 7 percent annually in the first four months of this year. however, for the year as a whole, imports are expected to grow by 10 percent. the slower growth in imports against a higher growth in exports naturally has a positive influence on our balance of payments. this is reflected in the trade balance declining by 20 percent to $ 469 million in the first four months of the year. as far as the inflation rate is concerned we have seen a significant slowdown in recent months as the effects of the devaluation worked through the economy. the inflation rate fell to 5. 4 percent in july after peaking at 10. 5 percent in april. another important economic indicator that we monitor closely is our level of foreign reserves. i am pleased to say that the foreign reserves have held up very well so far this year and is currently at around f $ 1. 2 billion, equivalent to between 3. 5 to 4 months of imports of goods and non - factor services. let me now move to the topic that you had asked me to speak on i. e. the economic contribution of tourism and the way forward. ladies and gentlemen, over the past 5 years, the total estimated contribution of the tourism sector to the economy, taking into account both its direct and indirect impact as

long - standing sources of financial vulnerabilities. first differentiation : although we “ did the job ” for banks and insurers, we didn ’ t do it for other non - bank financial intermediaries. nbfi has exhibited recently several vulnerabilities related to liquidity risk, such as liquidity mismatch issues in open - ended funds, or the excessive use of leverage, leading to liquidity strains notably in the event of unanticipated spikes in margin calls in times of stress. this is the common pattern of the three financial instability episodes we have experienced recently : the dash for cash of mmf in march 2020, the commodity market this year, and also pensions funds use of derivatives in the uk, resulting in fire sales of gilts. it is high time that we moved forward to enhance the regulatory framework for nbfi that will ensure better liquidity management on financial markets. currently, the design, calibration and use of existing tools is the responsibility of market participants whose incentives are not always aligned with financial stability goals. tackling systemic risks in nbfi may therefore require the development of additional rules both for leverage and for liquidity management in case of systemic risk developments. stricter requirements as well as a macroprudential approach would contribute to prevent ex ante moral hazard, and thus avoid ex post central bank interventions. second, interest rates are going up at a time when the level of public and private debt are at historic highs in many countries – 97 % of gdp at end 2020 vs 79 % page 6 sur 11 of gdp in the aftermath of the gfc. in particular, nominal debt levels have increased by a total of almost $ 90 trillion for all fsbii member jurisdictions in the post - gfc period. however, with debt maturity profiles spread out over time and much of the borrowing at fixed rates, these vulnerabilities remain contained. a third necessary differentiation is that each country stands in a different place. if i may take the example of the french financial sector, both banks and insurers have proven quite resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions, suffering no contagion from the financial turmoil caused by the political crisis in the uk. in terms of profitability, orderly rising interest rates should also have a progressive and positive effect on banks net interest margin. all of these factors explain that cds premiums of french banks, for example, have remained lower so far on average than that