july jan. july oct. household activity - related - 10 jan. jan. jan. oct. note : in the left - hand chart, figures are from the reference series in jcb consumption now, which take changes in the number of consumers into account. figures are the arithmetic averages of the corresponding age groups in five - year increments. the baseline is the average for the corresponding half of the month for 2016 through 2018. sources : nowcast inc. / jcb, co., ltd., " jcb consumption now " ; cabinet office. chart 4 i. economic developments global economy global growth rate ( imf forecasts in the world economic outlook ) cy 2022 : + 4. 9 % y / y % chg. cy 2021 : + 5. 9 % cy 2019 : + 2. 8 % - 3 - 4 - 5 longer delivery times - 1 - 2 average from 1980 through 2019 : + 3. 5 % s. a., di delivery delays index ( pmi ) cy 2020 : - 3. 1 % japan imf forecasts ( october 2021 weo ) - 6 cy 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 united states cy 19 euro area note : in the right - hand chart, delivery delay index = 100 - suppliers'delivery times index. figures for the united states and the euro area are for the respective manufacturing pmis. those for japan are for the au jibun bank japan manufacturing pmi. sources : imf ; ihs markit ( © and database right ihs markit ltd 2021. all rights reserved. ). chart 5 i. economic developments supply - side constraints confirmed new cases of covid - 19 in southeast asia 80 7 - day moving average, persons per 100, 000 population world semiconductor demand ( wsts ) 160 s. a., bil. dollars cy 2022 malaysia thailand vietnam cy 2021 world semiconductor shipments forecasts as of aug. 2021 trend from cy 2000 to cy 2017 cy 2020 jan. mar. may. may sept. sep. jul. july nov. cy00 note : in the right - hand chart, figures are based on staff calculations using world semiconductor trade statistics ( wsts ) data. source : haver. chart 6 ii. price developments commodity prices and prices of transactions among businesses international commodity prices monthly avg., cy 2015 = 100 producer prices in japan crude oil ( dubai ) y / y % chg. copper - 2 - 4 -

november 15, 2021 bank of japan japan's economy and monetary policy speech at a meeting with business leaders in nagoya kuroda haruhiko governor of the bank of japan ( english translation based on the japanese original ) introduction it is my great pleasure to have the opportunity today to exchange views with a distinguished gathering of business leaders in the tokai region. i would like to take this chance to express my sincerest gratitude for your cooperation with activities of the bank of japan's nagoya branch. we had to exchange views online since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus ( covid - 19 ) last year, but today are able to hold an in - person meeting for the first time in a year and nine months, given the recent low level of confirmed cases. i am grateful to meet with you face - to - face at this gathering. although economic activity in japan had been considerably constrained by the successive waves of covid - 19 since last year, positive signs toward normalization of economic activity are at last starting to be seen due to the widespread vaccinations and a substantial decline in the number of confirmed cases of covid - 19. at the same time, however, the global resumption of economic activity has triggered a new issue of supply - side constraints, which have caused shortages in raw materials and parts. today, while elaborating on these points, i would like to explain the bank's view on japan's economic activity and prices based on the outlook for economic activity and prices ( outlook report ) released last month, as well as its thinking behind the recent conduct of monetary policy. i. economic developments let me start by talking about the current situation for japan's economy and its outlook ( chart 1 ). the economy has continued to pick up from the bottom hit in spring last year, but the recovery has been somewhat slower than initially expected. due to the spread of the delta variant in summer, private consumption was stagnant for a protracted period, mainly for face - to - face services. exports and production, which had been increasing firmly to date, have been somewhat weak recently due to delays in the procurement of parts that reflect the spread of covid - 19 in southeast asia. the outlook for japan's economy is that, for the time being, downward pressure stemming from vigilance against covid - 19 is likely to remain on services consumption, and exports and production are expected to remain in a temporary deceleration phase due to