samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
bis central bankers ’ speeches

in the late 2014 date of the policy guidance. this would effectively tighten financial conditions not only by changing the expected path of short - term interest rates, but also by bringing forward the expected start of balance sheet normalization. regional economic conditions let me turn now to the regional economy, the focus of our presentations today. since our last briefing, the recovery in the region has picked up some steam. as attendees at previous regional press briefings may recall, the new york fed produces economic activity indexes to help monitor the performance of the regional economy. based on these measures, activity in new york state and new york city has expanded at a healthy clip, while new jersey ’ s growth continues at a more moderate pace. in puerto rico, the activity index produced by the government development bank for puerto rico shows that the island ’ s downturn appears to have ended, but the pick up that we noted at our last briefing has not persisted and the level of activity there has stalled. looking at payroll employment, however, the pattern of recovery is a bit more positive, though mixed across the region. new york state and new york city saw faster job growth than the nation since our last briefing. job creation in the city has been particularly robust and employment in the city is now above its pre - recession peak. in new jersey, however, employment stands only slightly above where it was at our last briefing and still is well below its previous peak. in puerto rico, employment continues to fluctuate near its lows, with no sign of a pickup. job polarization our special topic today is the issue of job polarization. as i have visited different parts of the district – most recently trips to long island, syracuse and buffalo – employers have told me that they are beginning to add jobs, particularly in high - tech fields. these jobs can best be characterized as high skilled and technologically advanced. i have heard similar stories from our small business advisory council, our upstate advisory council and even our community banks. these anecdotes are reflected in our research on labor market dynamics. over the past three decades, job opportunities have become increasingly concentrated in high wage / high skill occupations and low wage / low skill occupations, while job opportunities for those in the middle have been shrinking. at the same time, there has been a growing gap in wages between jobs that pay the most and those that pay the least. taken together, this phenomenon is often referred to as job polarization. the root causes of job polar
are seeing in the repo market are driven by forces outside of monetary policy, like regulatory constraints, which are particularly visible at the end of the month and quarters. also the demand for bunds has been partly driven by flight to quality in the face of high level of political uncertainty. that might be abating now. we can ’ t do much to alleviate that. but you don ’ t see the ecb taking it all upon itself? the implementation of monetary policy is based on the de - centralisation principle so it will remain that way. is there a way to direct more of those 50 billion euros to germany if they ’ ve used up their allowance? we have flexibility to reallocate part of that capacity. greece has made clear progress. but any inclusion of greece in qe depends on a successful debt sustainability review, which in turn requires a decision on easing the greek debt burden. what do you need to declare greek debt sustainable? we ’ ve made it clear that we first want to see a performing adjustment programme. and this we have. then we want the concerns over the sustainability of greek debt relieved. this means we have a clear sequence. the first step was for the greek government and the four institutions to agree on a new set of policies that allows for the conclusion of the programme review and for the imf to go to their board. the policies are now being discussed and voted by the greek parliament, as we speak. this is a positive step. it ’ s been a huge effort for the greek government and it ’ s done. the next step is agreeing on measures that address debt sustainability concerns. the framework was set by eurogroup ministers in may 2016 and it will not change. this will be discussed next monday in brussels and i hope they can find an agreement. these measures would be implemented in mid - 2018, at the end of the programme, but what we would like to see as ecb is a clear description of the debt measures and how much they would contribute to the sustainability of greek debt. we need a sufficient degree of specificity. once these conditions are met, there can be a successful conclusion of the review by the esm and there can be a successful discussion in the imf board. these are all preconditions for us to start a discussion in the governing council on qe inclusion. then the governing council will have a discussion on technical measures to be taken. this will include an assessment by the governing council on debt sustainability and other

euro area. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches
as investments, will add to the already significant technical calculation problems. moreover, not all investments are equally appropriate for strengthening the future potential for growth. while the proposal on tradable deficit permits is interesting, it may be difficult to put into operation. 1 / 1

in interest rates. i see no urgent need for further specific legislation in these areas as you are seriously addressing the challenges yourselves. let me recapitulate : solutions may differ, but should serve the following purposes – in random order : – refinancing risk must be reduced, – the need for any top - up collateral must be met before it becomes relevant, – the procyclical impact of home financing should be dampened, – and the vulnerability of homeowners to extraordinary changes in financing conditions must be reduced. it will require a huge effort, but you have already come a long way. keep up the good work! thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches
s support. the requisite convergence of supervisory practices needs to become a reality very soon. i know that eiopa is making this a priority. incidentally, the three - year review of the european supervisory authorities ( esas ), is underway. following a public consultation proposed by the european commission, the draft legislation looks to strengthen the authorities ’ and chiefly eiopa ’ s role and powers without calling into question the existing architecture. this should support the goal of increased convergence in supervisory practices, which should in turn promote improved effectiveness. accordingly, the proposal represents a positive step forward for europe. however, a close eye should be kept on the place given to national supervisors, especially regarding the question of internal models and supervisory colleges. they should remain within the national supervisors ’ realm of competence, while eiopa ’ s mediation role is essential and should be reinforced, especially with regard to cross - border issues. however, this is incompatible with assuming responsibility for validating national internal models. as for the eiopa role on cross - border cases and its guidance for national supervisors that some member states would favour, such exchanges could take place within dedicated coordination platforms. beyond regulatory adaptation, the challenges ahead relate to technological and environmental changes, which are new and yet crucial matters for attention for insurers, regulators and supervisors. insurance players, of all sizes and risk exposures, are facing the digital revolution, which is inescapable as the developments in other business sectors such as travel, tourism or catering show. to remain competitive in terms of customer relationships, insurers will need to raise their customer experience to the highest levels. this will require them to fundamentally review their processes, tools and information systems. it also calls for an upgrade of their human resources policies. the risks associated with the digital revolution are numerous, but i would like to stress the bigger risk associated with procrastination. this risk seems particularly important to me and it will be an essential focus of attention for supervisors. the digital revolution has other ramifications that require the attention of supervisors. one of them is the increasing inclusion of insurance products within package deals. this is particularly the case for affinity insurance products. these often involve the multiplication of intermediaries in the value chain. this phenomenon can blur responsibilities and the intrinsic economic value of these products, and we are therefore vigilant as consumer protection is especially important in a strengthened european regulatory framework for product governance ( via the insurance distribution directive in particular ). another

euro area governance, both by strengthening fiscal frameworks and improving crisis management mechanisms. much remains to be done. but if we keep on the right track, we will emerge from the crisis better equipped to take advantage of the opportunities offered by our common currency. bis central bankers ’ speeches
bankers ’ speeches

mark carney : the g - 20 ’ s core agenda to reduce systemic risk remarks by mr mark carney, governor of the bank of canada, at the international organization of securities commissions ( iosco ) meeting, montreal, 10 june 2010. * * * introduction it is a pleasure to be here at this important meeting. it comes at a critical time, as we all work to repair a global financial system that has failed our citizens. given this failure, the g - 20 ’ s agenda to reshape the global financial system is comprehensive and radical. the coming weeks and months will be pivotal to its success. the time for debate and discussion is drawing to a close. policymakers now need to decide and to implement. recent tensions in europe have underscored this urgency. market volatility over the past couple of months has reflected both macroeconomic forces and heightened regulatory uncertainty. a flurry of tangential proposals has sown confusion about the focus and intent of regulatory reform. could taxation and regulatory fiat really address too - big - to - fail? are markets part of the problem or part of the solution? this past weekend in busan, south korea, g - 20 finance ministers and central bank governors refocused on the core reform agenda of capital, resolution, and market infrastructure. later this month in toronto, g - 20 leaders can be expected to harden that resolve. today, i would like to focus on the g - 20 ’ s core agenda, whose objective is to create a more resilient, global financial system. i will begin by discussing the nature of systemic risk and then move to the three principal strategies to mitigate it : increasing the resiliency of financial institutions ; enhancing the robustness of financial markets ; and reducing the interconnectedness between institutions and between institutions and markets. iosco is an important contributor to the g - 20 process. we share a common purpose. reducing systemic risk is at the heart of the iosco principles. your ongoing efforts to enhance investor protection and market integrity will also serve to build a more resilient financial system. systemic risk systemic risk is the probability that the financial system will not function as needed to support economic activity. mitigating systemic risk is challenging because it requires identifying the essential elements of a complex, modern financial system. what is essential changes as the system evolves. 1 in reducing some aspects of systemic risk, policy - makers will undoubtedly increase others. as a consequence, we will need to remain vi
##quisite condition for each country to achieve sustainable growth, but not a sufficient condition. in formulating macroeconomic policy, the traditional emphasis was to ensure domestic stability or to put one ’ s house in order. however, the simple sum of each country ’ s policy actions may not necessarily achieve an optimal outcome at the global level. although policy - makers in each country may be acting rationally from its own individual perspective, collectively there is the risk of a fallacy of composition. currently, many central banks in advanced economies have entered the realm of unconventional monetary policy such as the purchase of various types of assets to spur growth and to buy time as the sectors of the economy go through balance - sheet repairs. however, as the domestic monetary transmission mechanism is constrained, there may also be unintentional cross - border spillover effects, such as increases in capital inflows to other countries. the effects could also feedback to the originating country. meanwhile, central banks in emerging economies have also shifted toward monetary accommodation or relaxed recent tightening moves. these steps are necessary to support growth. but what this global monetary accommodation ultimately means for global bis central bankers ’ speeches commodity prices and inflationary pressures, and as a result to global macro - economic stability, is something that will likely require close monitoring. another dimension would be the tendency to focus on external demand to spur domestic growth. this is a natural reaction when domestic demand is fragile. when the global economy as a whole is growing rapidly this would not be an issue, but when global growth is weak, this could mean taking away possible opportunities from other economies. if rapidly growing emerging economies were to succumb to the temptation to resist the appreciation of one ’ s currency, this could be counterproductive from a global perspective. the third lesson is that although measures taken by central banks, both individually and collectively, have been successful in stabilizing the economy and the financial system during the crisis, policy - makers, including central banks, cannot be complacent. for example, the ecb ’ s omt has significantly taken away tail risks in the euro zone. this respite is probably, nonetheless, only temporary and this opportunity must be used to fundamentally resolve the root causes of the crisis within the euro area. another example would be the central bank swap lines which were introduced during the height of the crisis after the collapse of lehman brothers and still function as a backstop to maintain stability in global interbank markets. the swap lines substantially reduced stress

the conference a complete success and hope all of you will enjoy your stay in tirana! 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches
created by politicians out of thin air. as one of my predecessors, mr lino spiteri, wrote recently, “ they don ’ t make magic wands that work any more. ” in the real world, a key precondition for prosperity is higher productivity. it should, therefore, be our common task, but particularly that of the political class, to promote policies and practices that are conducive to a more efficient use of the nation ’ s scarce resources.

the euro should enhance the economy ’ s potential to grow faster. the elimination of exchange rate risk and currency conversion costs should result in increased trade, while the lower interest rate and inflation environment of the euro area should make for reduced business costs and greater macroeconomic stability. combined with the fiscal discipline associated with monetary union, this is expected to translate into higher credit ratings and better investment prospects. from a central banker ’ s viewpoint, moreover, a key benefit of euro area membership will be the elimination of the costs inherent in managing a small, vulnerable currency like the maltese lira and their replacement by the greater security and credibility afforded by a strong international currency. euro adoption necessary but not sufficient viewed from this perspective, therefore, the euro is but one element in a continuum of changes necessary to enhance the international competitiveness of the maltese economy. the benefits of the single currency will not suffice, especially in the presence of downside risks to global growth such as higher oil prices, a potentially disorderly unwinding of current account imbalances and the rise of protectionism. although the ongoing preoccupation with the level of the external reserves will cease once we join the euro area, moreover, any imbalance between what we buy and sell abroad will continue to cause the depletion of assets or the accumulation of liabilities, and be reflected in the country ’ s international investment position. any loss of competitiveness, therefore, will still result in slower growth. raising productivity a key challenge in setting out to overcome this challenge, a primary objective should be the correction of existing macroeconomic imbalances. output growth must, therefore, match spending growth more closely, and a key element in bridging that gap is increased productivity. put differently, since we are price takers in the markets that matter, notably those for electronics and tourism, we must have a cost structure that does not discourage investment. domestic inputs, particularly labour, must be competitively priced. and since the cost of labour in malta is relatively high, we must increase the value of output per employee. once again, the only way forward is through productivity growth. in this regard, there is much room for improvement. the level of productivity has remained roughly unchanged since 2001, while it is projected to increase at an annual rate of only 1 % to 2 % in 2007 and 2008. for a country that is highly dependent on exports, this is not good enough when many of our competitors are achieving faster productivity growth. faced with
especially those with a large amount of fixed - rate loans and long - maturity securities. in any case, the rise in interest rates was much milder in japan than in the united states and europe, as was the impact on banking businesses and the financial system. on the whole, japan's financial system has been maintaining stability. financial institutions have sufficient capital bases and stable funding bases to withstand various types of risks, including the global rise in interest rates and gfc - type stress. financial intermediation has continued to function smoothly. iii. lessons learned and challenges ahead before i conclude, i would like to talk about the lessons learned and the challenges ahead. as i said at the outset, even if we understand the economic and financial situations and the risks associated with them, it is difficult to predict what kind of shocks will happen in the future. but this does not mean that we cannot prepare for unknowns. on the contrary, the episodes i mentioned today all highlight the importance of what we do during normal times in order to react nimbly when we face a crisis. the role of central banks prompt enhancement of the swap lines was possible based on the experience at the time of the gfc and day - to - day communication and collaboration among central banks. the market instability during the pandemic and the banking sector turmoil after the pandemic showed that, when the financial system is under stress, market conditions can deteriorate rapidly due to liquidity and funding concerns, and the risk of a negative feedback loop increases. in such a situation, it is important for central banks to maintain market confidence by fulfilling the gllr and mmlr functions. recently, we are required to respond to crises even more rapidly and on a larger scale. so, close communication among central banks during normal times is key. 4 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches a central bank also needsto keep close communication with financial institutions and monitor risks on a daily basis to fulfill its llr function in a timely manner. allow me to talk a bit about my own experience. back in the early 2000s, when japan's financial system was still unstable, i was leading a team in charge of monitoring financial institutions and coordinating llr functions at the bank. we tried to get as detailed information on individual banks as possible, including the expected daily inflow and outflow of deposits in the near future, eligible collaterals, and so on. as you know well, every bank is different. whether we decide

settlement systems. in this regard, your suggestions and comments will be extremely valuable. thank you very much for your kind attention. this article is excerpted and translated from a speech given by yasuo matsushita, governor of the bank of japan, to the japan center for economic research in tokyo on february 28, 1997.
france and germany. these ratios have risen sharply since the crisis, on average by around 70 percentage points. companies are not just saving more of their earnings. they are doing so in a more liquid form than previously. as among consumers, business confidence has risen in lockstep with profits. but this good news has been banked, not invested. despite the sunshine, many companies are still engaged in roof - repair. growth in the uk, the us and some other countries remains solid, if unspectacular. but caution increases the chances of world growth continuing systematically to underperform, as it has since the crisis. by generating an asymmetric response to good and bad news, it may also skew growth risks to the downside, again as we have seen. while emphasizing the downside, it is important not to forget the potential for upside risks. the upside risk that has generated most attention over recent weeks has been wage growth. at a headline level, this picked up to 2. 7 % for regular pay growth on an annual basis in april, from a low of 0. 7 % as recently as the summer of last year. this is around 0. 2 percentage points higher than forecast in the bank ’ s may inflation report. this pick - up in wage growth is welcome. indeed, this rise is a necessary ingredient for getting inflation back to target in the period ahead. equally, were wage inflation to continue to surprise to the upside as the labour market tightens, this could pose an upside risk to inflation, with corresponding implications for the mpc ’ s monetary policy stance. see bunn and rostom ( forthcoming ). bis central bankers ’ speeches it is important also, however, to place this wage news in context. this most recent upside surprise comes against a backdrop of wage growth having surprised to the downside for much of the past two years. up until last month, wages had surprised to the downside in 11 of the past 18 months. that has left the level of regular pay in the economy 2 % lower than we expected 18 months ago, even with the recent news. second, one explanation for the recent weakness of wages has been the compositional effects of a greater number of lower - skilled, lower - paid workers entering the job market. this has clearly had some, probably temporary, depressing effect on wage growth. over the postcrisis period as a whole, however, compositional effects have not depressed wages. rather,

##bold ( university of pennsylvania ), matthew gentzkow ( stanford ), nick bloom ( stanford ), helene rey ( lbs ), bryan kelly ( yale ), jianqing fan ( princeton ). on september 23 2022, we hosted raj chetty ( harvard ) talking about “ the economic impacts of covid - 19 : evidence from a new public database built using private sector data ”.