yield curve. third, as for exchange - traded funds ( etfs ), the increase in the amount outstanding of the bank ’ s holdings will be tripled from “ an annual pace of about 1 trillion yen ” to “ an annual pace of 3 trillion yen, ” and also tripled for japan real estate investment trusts ( j - reits ) from “ an annual pace of about 30 billion yen ” to “ an annual pace of about 90 billion yen. ” in addition, the bank will make etfs that track the jpx - nikkei index 400 eligible for purchase. these measures aim to preempt the manifestation of a risk that conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed, and to maintain the improving momentum of expectation formation. going forward, the bank will continue with the qqe, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. it will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and if it is judged necessary for achieving the price stability target, the bank will make adjustments without hesitation. this policy stance remains unchanged. iii. outlook for economic activity and prices under the expansion of the qqe let me now turn to the bank ’ s outlook for economic activity and prices under the expansion of the qqe, based on the outlook for economic activity and prices ( outlook report ) released at the end of october. on the real economy front, while the bank steadily carries out the recently expanded qqe, a virtuous cycle from income to spending is expected to be maintained in both the household and corporate sectors as domestic demand, such as private consumption and business fixed investment, is likely to remain firm and exports are expected to head for a moderate increase. therefore, japan ’ s economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, which is estimated to be around 0. 5 percent or lower, as a trend. put in bis central bankers ’ speeches terms of the median of nine board members ’ forecasts of the real gdp growth rate, this was 0. 5 percent for fiscal 2014, 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2015, and 1. 2 percent for fiscal 2016 ( chart 10 ). on the price front, as i just explained, with japan ’ s economy continuing to grow at a pace above its potential, the output gap is expected to stay on its improving trend and continue to advance within positive territory. due partly

000 smes accruing over €3. 2bn of tax warehousing liabilities to revenue as of january this year, while 7 per cent of smes reported deferring payments to both trade creditors and to landlords during 2020. 2 in ireland, new bank debt did not feature heavily in the pandemic response, as the policy approach here was skewed heavily towards direct wage subsidy and grant support. 3 this more direct form of support meant the exchequer bore an additional burden in shouldering the pandemic shock, but now means debt overhang is less of a risk in aggregate to the irish business sector than it will be in many european economies. despite this, a huge amount of support was needed for those smes entering the pandemic with outstanding bank debt. the need for liquidity support among bank borrowers is evident in the payment - break take up rates in 2020 : 21 and 18 per cent among local smes and corporates, respectively. even now, with a stronger than expected recovery, 10 per cent of irish sme bank loans are non - performing, while another 29 per cent are classified by lenders as being at high risk of distress. what might an ideal insolvency regime look like in the face of such a build - up in liabilities, along with the existence of a complex combination of creditors? well, conceptually at least, we think it would look a lot like the small company administrative rescue process – or scarp – introduced by the government last year. 4 the key policy issues we see will therefore revolve around the operation and implementation, rather than design, of the scheme. scarp aims to provide a lower cost and more accessible mechanism to restructure the liabilities of distressed small enterprises. the mechanism is based on the irish examinership system. without such a coordination mechanism, creditors may benefit from “ free riding ” by allowing other creditors to move first in offering haircuts to the borrower. aware of this possibility, each creditor may individually refuse to engage. alternatively, a creditor may adopt a particularly hard line in isolation without taking into account the wider implications of its actions. in each case, there is a risk of inefficient outcomes where unnecessary liquidations emerge. research from the united states shows that small businesses are often liquidated inefficiently due to the high costs and difficulty in accessing bankruptcy courts. 5 this research also highlights the role that key creditors