in recent years, and we expect continued strong growth in the years ahead. the national budget for 2006 presents projections for the period to 2009. the projections are based on the assumption that the price of oil will fall from the current level to nok 260 per barrel. this is lower than long - term futures prices but is a high price estimate in relation to historical prices. productivity growth in service industries is compared here. there may be sources of error due to choice of method in the production of national accounts figures, but the main impression can also be supported by the use of other sources. comparing developments in productivity in manufacturing is of little relevance since the structure of this industry varies widely among the nordic countries. seniorpolitikk og ia - avtalens delmal om a øke pensjoneringsalderen. ( norwegian only ) report no. 04 / 2005. national insurance administration. 4 / 8 we know little about future oil prices. the chart shows actual developments since 1960 and the projections in the last long - term programmes and in the national budget for 2006. we see that considerable weight has systematically been given to the prevailing oil price when making projections. just as systematically, there have been surprises that have resulted in a different path for the actual oil price. the lesson is that today ’ s oil price should not be regarded as a forecast of future prices, not even if the level is priced into long - term futures. substantial uncertainty must be expected. the management of the petroleum fund will be part of the state pension fund. this essentially involves a name change. the capital will not be earmarked for pension payments. on the other hand, the intention has long been for the capital in the petroleum fund to be used as a means of easing the burden in connection with the large pensioner cohorts expected from about 2015. with the assumptions set out in the last national budget, only a share of the rise in pension payments ahead can be financed by an increase in returns on the fund. the bulk of the increase must be financed by higher ordinary tax revenues. a number of analysts have calculated that with high oil prices the petroleum fund will be sufficiently large to finance pension payments. norges bank has analysed the uncertainty surrounding such expectations. we have looked at the probability that the capital in the petroleum fund will be sufficient by calculating developments in market value and pension payments using a model with uncertainty. we have used statistics norway ’ s projections for pension payments. standard assumptions concerning uncertainty with respect

it indicates a slightly stronger development abroad. inflation prospects in the next few years also appear to have held up rather well on the whole. in february, when we chose to raise the repo rate, our conclusion was that the interest rate should perhaps be increased at a somewhat slower rate than was anticipated according to the interest rate path on which the forecasts in the inflation report were based. personally, i do not see any reason in the current situation to change that assessment, although international developments now look slightly better than we had anticipated in february. this is something i will discuss with my colleagues when we meet next week. the strong level of economic activity and the inflation forecast indicate, however, that it will again be necessary to gradually shift monetary policy onto a less expansionary path to ensure that inflation remains close to target.