run, demographics of the elderly are a given. thus, reviewing the current social welfare framework in order to make it viable on a sustainable basis, taking into consideration the longer - term changes in demographics, is an enormous challenge. iv. conclusion when one looks back into history, the “ global shifts ” examined by professor eichengreen are happening continuously. i believe japan ’ s catching - up with the advanced economies through its post - war miracle and its ensuing transition to slow growth, as well as the current high growth of china and india, can be understood as examples of the “ global shifts ” ( slide 12 ). high growth cannot last forever. in concluding, i would like to emphasize that what is important here is to introduce a smooth transition from high growth to stable growth. even emerging economies which are currently enjoying high growth will likely face, in the future, the same challenges that japan is currently struggling with. for this, preventing bubbles, reviewing business models and preparing for changes in demographics are especially important. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches

is on pace to more than double. 3 owners - equivalent rent is similarly on pace to nearly double this year. 4 sometime early next year, though, i expect to see the upward pressure on inflation from these forces to ease as future increases in new or renewed leases moderate and the full effects of monetary policy tightening make their way to housing services prices. beyond housing, i expect goods price inflation to continue to moderate as monetary policy now and going forward slows the pace of increase in aggregate demand, supply problems ease, and supply and demand come into better balance. there is some evidence that goods supply production and delivery problems tied to the pandemic are improving, with supplier delivery times and reports of items in short supply continuing to drop. in terms of service price inflation, we saw a step - down in airfares and other travel - related services last month, but i am uncertain about how these services, as well as food services, and nonmarket services prices will evolve going forward. nominal wages have been growing quickly, and i ’ ll be watching closely to see how wage growth evolves and feeds into inflation. the atlanta fed ’ s wage growth tracker hit another record in july for its 24 years of data, a 12 - month rate of 6. 7 percent wage growth. i don ’ t expect wage increases to ease up much unless and until there is a significant softening in the labor market. one way to anticipate future wage growth is through quit rates. most people who quit their jobs are moving to others that pay significantly better, so i take quits as one signal about where wages are headed in the near see christopher j. waller ( 2022 ), “ the red hot housing market : the role of policy and implications for housing affordability, ” speech delivered at the “ recent fiscal and monetary policy : implications for u. s. and israeli real estate markets ” conference, march 24, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / waller20220324a. htm. tenants ’ rent, which rose 3. 3 percent in 2021 and has already increased another 4. 3 percent through the first seven months of 2022, is on pace to more than double this year. similarly, owner ’ s equivalent rent rose by 3. 8 percent in 2021 and has risen another 3. 8 percent in the first seven months of this year. - 7term. quits are near their highest level over the