the continued weakness in the international economy. however, the consensus forecast is that the prospects for global growth for 2010 have not changed for the worse. growth in this year is largely expected to come from the emerging market economies, such as china and india, as the advanced economies are projected to experience low to moderate growth. in light of the outlook for the global economy and recent adverse weather conditions, the bank has revised its projection of the performance of the domestic economy for this fiscal year. the domestic economy is currently being forecasted to contract marginally in the range of 0. 0 per cent to 1. 0 per cent for fiscal year 2010 / 11. this is in contrast to our earlier forecast of marginal growth for the fiscal year. the change in projection is largely due to the extent of the fall - out in the june quarter and the impact of tropical storm nicole in the december quarter. the forecast for a marginal decline in the fiscal year as a whole therefore depends on there being growth in the march 2011 quarter. domestic inflation for fy2010 / 11 is expected to be at the upper end of the revised forecast range of 6. 0 per cent to 8. 0 per cent and within the original target range of 7. 5 per cent to 9. 5 per cent. this projection is underpinned by continued low consumer demand, a stable exchange rate and continued moderation in inflation expectations. the risks to the inflation projection are balanced. the downside risks continue to be a greater than anticipated contraction in demand due to sharper than expected reductions in real incomes. the upside risks include adverse weather conditions and higher than anticipated increases in international commodity prices. given the above factors, the central bank will remain vigilant in monitoring developments in the international and domestic economy. in addition, despite the projected uptick for inflation in the december quarter, the medium - term outlook indicates a resumption of the downward path. against this background, the bank will continue to be cautious in easing its monetary policy stance. conclusion ladies and gentlemen, the successes we have had to date in the macroeconomic indicators have been assisted by the on - going consolidation of the fiscal accounts. the fiscal authorities have been meeting their targets under the imf stand - by arrangement and from all indications the quantitative targets under the september review have also been met. both local and foreign investors continue to monitor the country ’ s progress carefully. they have so far indicated their approval by the preference shown for jamaican financial assets. this must not be taken

already been quite successful, although this has occurred without the full measures being in place for accountability and transparency. by improving these, we can do better. in addition, the bank has strengthened and modernised its supervisory capabilities. full supervisory autonomy was established in line with the basel core principles with the implementation in 2015 of the banking services act, 2014. statutory responsibility for 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches the maintenance of overall financial system stability, that is, responsibility for macroprudential surveillance and measures, was added to the bank's mandate through amendments to the bank of jamaica act in 2015. so it is not surprising that some people think that bank of jamaica is already independent even though it is not. now, i would like to outline why i believe that establishing de jure central bank independence could represent a seismic shift in jamaica's economic fortunes. returning to my map, since 2013, jamaica has been pursuing economic reform programmes with the support of the international monetary fund. the main pillars of these programmes have been ( i ) structural reforms to boost growth and employment ; ( ii ) actions to improve price and non - price competitiveness ; and ( iii ) sizable fiscal adjustments, supported by extensive fiscal reforms. the outcome has been the best macroeconomic environment in jamaica for generations. jamaica currently has low interest rates, low inflation and declining unemployment while output growth is accelerating. investors have taken note of changes in jamaica's fiscal management. yields on government of jamaica global bonds have been trading below their emerging market counterparts even as uncertainties in emerging markets have been increasing. and goj jamaican - dollar bond yields, unusually, have been even lower than yields on usdollar - denominated global bonds. you probably can proffer a number of reasons why domestic bond yields have been lower than global bond yields, but, whatever explanation you favour, you have to conclude that the sure money is currently on jamaica. this is the background against which the proposals for modernising the central bank should be seen. for those of you who have not yet had a chance to examine the bill, let me give you a few highlights. the bank will be given a clear legal mandate that identifies the maintenance of price stability and financial stability as the bank's principal objectives, with price stability as the primary objective. to oversee the delivery of the mandate, there will be a change to the tenure of board members, staggering their appointments and making the tenure long enough to provide for personal independence and the development of sufficient