the finnish economy continued to grow in the first months of 2022. the turnover of all key sectors has exceeded the pre - pandemic level and employment has continued to rise, and growth in investment was robust. the main constraints of the finnish economy were shortages of materials and labour. russia ’ s invasion of ukraine has cast a new veil of gloom over the outlook for our economy. there is considerable uncertainty over the economic impact of the russia - ukraine war. the extent and duration of the war are unknown, and neither do we know what economic policy measures will be taken to alleviate the coming economic effects. [ slide 7 ] finnish views on joining nato have changed moreover, i would stress that uncertainty may sometimes be the worst state of all. examples are many but to think about the times around the brexit referendum, the penultimate us presidential elections or the italian referendum. premiums declined remarkably after the electoral events, even if the outcomes were not the ones initially desired by the markets. in finland, the geopolitical situation currently is the biggest source for uncertainty. we don ’ t have a vote on geopolitics, but our domestic debate on the possible nato membership is similar enough. hopefully, this piece of uncertainty is resolved sooner rather than later, at least the polls are clear. to end my introductory remarks in a positive tone, i would like to note that the solid financial position of the finnish corporate sector and the solid underlying conditions for the finnish economy in early 2022 provide a silver lining to the otherwise foggy landscape. dear colleagues, after these words, i ’ d like to give the floor to vice president thomas ostros from the eib. following his words, the results of the eib investment survey for finland will be presented, followed by a talk by professor otto toivanen from aalto university and a high level panel, focusing on investment dynamics and investment gaps in finland. with this, i hope you will seize the opportunity to enjoy the presentations and the panel discussion of the distinguished speakers and actively participate in today ’ s discussions. thomas, please, the floor is yours. thank you senior adviser juuso vanhala for the background work for this speech! links in the text kokkinen, arto & obstbaum, meri & maki - franti, petri ( 2021 ) : bank of finland ’ s long - run forecast framework with human capital, bof economics review, 10 / 2021. ( external link ) lindblad,

the fact that whereas ongoing investment projects will be carried on despite changes in prevailing uncertainty, the uncertainty will heavily affect decisions on new investments. in contrast, supply factors have eroded growth in business fixed investment more or less throughout the period under review. from the early 2000s until 2015, supply factors either had a slowing impact on investment growth or did not have a significant impact on its rate of growth. it is noteworthy that during the years of rapid growth in the first half of the 2000s, investment was fueled by robust demand, which masked the structural problems in their supply. in 2015 – 2017, supply - side factors both strengthened investment growth and dampened the rise in prices for investment, and at the same time, partly offset the weakness stemming from global uncertainty. the stronger investment growth in these years was mainly due to the temporary improvement in total factor productivity. coming to the more recent years, the recovering of the economy before the pandemic was accompanied with encouraging signs of investment. the gathering of momentum did not last, however, as it started dampening already in late 2019. the real blow came in 2020 with the arrival of the pandemic. this induced huge uncertainty into the economy, many companies experienced a sharp contraction in turnover, forcing them to adjust their cost structures accordingly and lower risk appetite. [ slide 5 ] the financial position of non - financial corporations remains strong in spite of the covid - 19 and the disruption caused to many firms, the non - financial corporations sector as a whole improved its profitability and financial position in 2020 and 2021. ( see bank of finland bulletin, 2021. ) while the value added created by the corporate sector decreased, compensation of employees declined and firms received public financial support. ultimately the corporate sector ’ s profit share managed to increase. 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches [ slide 6 ] changes in revenue and expenditure of non - financial corporations from 2019 to at the same time, the investment rate declined less than had been feared. better profitability and a stronger financial position were facilitating investment growth for the coming years, once the pandemic would recede and the fading of uncertainty would improve the outlook for production. in early 2022, before russia ’ s invasion of ukraine, finland ’ s economy had largely recovered from the pandemic. gdp had already surpassed its pre - pandemic level during the first half of 2021, and the economy continued to grow strongly in the latter part of the year. indicator data and our short - term models suggest that