outcomes have been higher than expected and the risk of inflation is still on the upside. we aim to tighten policy without the swedish economy having to enter a recession, a so - called soft landing. however, with weaker economic activity abroad and at the same time continued high and broad inflationary pressures, it is important to be prepared for the tightening to be severely felt by many households and companies. high inflation and, at the same time, ever higher interest rates on mortgage loans, consumer credit and corporate finance will be tough for many households and companies, not least those with small margins. but, we cannot allow inflation to become entrenched at high levels. by raising the interest rate now, we will bring inflation down again. this is our mandate from the swedish parliament ; low and stable inflation will result in better economic development for all. the frameworks we have built are worth defending, but we have built up vulnerabilities that we need to manage. today, i would particularly like to highlight the question of investments : how can we ensure sufficient investment to build longterm resilience without further increasing household and corporate indebtedness? does the fiscal policy framework contribute to a lack of investment in defence, infrastructure, education and climate transition? can it be reformed so that we maintain budgetary discipline but at the same time open up for long - term investment that will improve the functioning of the economy, which also helps alleviate inflationary pressures by reducing supply side problems. 14 the riksbank will act to bring inflation back to the target. but, monetary policy is affected by the functioning of the fiscal policy framework and the labour market. we therefore need to facilitate a discussion on the economic policy framework and the long - term conditions for the swedish economy over the next 30 years. i hope that our discussion today can be a starting point. references attinasi, maria grazia, and mirco balatti ( 2021 ), “ globalisation and its implications for inflation in advanced economies ”, economic bulletin 4 / 2021, european central bank. auer, raphael and andreas m. fischer ( 2010 ), “ the effect of low - wage import competition on u. s. inflationary pressure ”, journal of monetary economics 57, pp. 491 - 503. breman, anna ( 2022 ), “ inflation and monetary policy in the shadow of a war ”, speech at sveriges riksbank, 23 march, sveriges riksbank. economic commission

economy during the forecast period. when analysing the state of the economy i have focused on understanding how much can be attributed to cyclical fluctuations and how much to structural factors. in practice it is of course difficult to precisely distinguish between structural and cyclical factors, but it is nevertheless important to analyse this as monetary policy can only affect the latter. i have also asked myself what the relatively strong development of the swedish household sector in relation to the weaker situation in the industrial sector means for monetary policy. all in all, i thought it was reasonable to leave the repo rate unchanged, for two main reasons. first, i think it would be wrong to lower the repo rate further in a situation in which the economy is improving. second, i believe that a lower repo rate today could increase the risks associated with household indebtedness in the longer term. i will now explain my thinking about monetary policy today in more detail and describe how i see the current situation in the swedish economy, what i believe monetary policy can achieve and how i see the situation in the period ahead. divided demand – the explanation is to be found abroad i would like to begin by looking back in order to describe my view of the situation today. approximately five years have passed since the financial crisis began in earnest and these have been turbulent years for the global economy. sweden is highly affected by what happens abroad but we have coped much better than many other countries, partly because we have not been hit by problems resulting from an excessive level of debt in either the public or the private sectors. figure 2 weak developments abroad have affected sweden gdp, quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally - adjusted data - 3 - 3 - 6 - 6 kix - 9 usa emu - 12 - 9 - 12 sweden - 15 - 15 note. kix is an aggregate of countries that are important for sweden ’ s international transactions. sources : bureau of economic analysis, eurostat, national sources, and statistics sweden bis central bankers ’ speeches after the sharp downturn in 2008 – 2009, swedish gdp growth initially recovered quite quickly. unfortunately, the improvement in the rate of growth stopped short when the financial crisis developed into a debt crisis in europe, and this has restricted swedish exports. this has happened directly, as the euro area is sweden ’ s largest export market, and indirectly, as the euro area affects industrial activity in other parts of europe and asia that in turn are important growth markets for the swedish manufacturing industry