. 2. the forecasts of the majority of the policy board members are constructed as follows : each policy board member's forecast takes the form of a point estimate - - namely, the figure to which he / she attaches the highest probability of realization. these forecasts are then shown as a range, with the highest figure and the lowest figure excluded. the range does not indicate the forecast errors. 3. the cpi forecasts in this table are based on the previous 2015 - base index. source : bank of japan. chart 5 cash and deposits held by households japan united states tril. usd 1, 100 1, 050 3. 1 tril. 1, 000 usd tril. yen 37 tril. yen trend line for 2010 - 2019 trend line for 2010 - 2019 cy10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 cy 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 note : the figures for the united states include mmf. sources : federal reserve ; haver ; bank of japan. chart 6 business fixed investment y / y % chg. private privatenonresidential nonresidentialinvestment investment ( sna, ( sna, nominal ) nominal ) tankan tankan ( planned ( plannedinvestment investmentinincurrent currentfiscal fiscalyear yearasasofofthe thejune junesurvey surveyofofeach eachyear ) year ) - 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 fy 06 note : the tankan figures include software and r & d investments and exclude land purchasing expenses. r & d investment is not included before the march 2017 survey. the figures are for enterprises of all sizes and in all industries including financial institutions. sources : cabinet office ; bank of japan. chart 7 the bank's measures in response to covid - 19 chart 8 fund - provisioning measure to support efforts on climate change from a central bank standpoint, the bank provides funds to financial institutions for investment or loans they make to address climate change based on their own decisions. amid the uncertain external environment, it can respond flexibility to changes in circumstances while avoiding direct involvement in micro - level resource allocation as much as possible. eligible counterparties eligible investment / loans • • financial institutions that disclose a certain level of information on their efforts to address climate change of the investment / loans made by counterparties as part of their efforts, those that contribute to japan's actions to address climate change terms and conditions • •

hikes help inflation rates moderate. however, given that the rate of increase in services prices has remained high through wage growth, mainly in advanced economies, there is a risk of inflation rates staying elevated, as well as a risk of financial conditions tightening further. thus, attention is warranted on the possibility of overseas economies deviating downward from the bank's baseline scenario. second is geopolitical risks and developments in prices of commodities, including grain. the prices of grain and other commodities have declined on the whole after reaching their peak around the middle of 2022 ; nevertheless, they may put stronger downward pressure on economic activity depending on various geopolitical factors including the situation in ukraine. the third factor is firms'and households'medium - to long - term growth expectations. advances in digitalization, which reflect the experience of covid - 19 and labor shortages, as well as efforts regarding labor market reform are expected to have positive effects on japan's growth potential. meanwhile, some firms have revised their strategies regarding supply chains, based on heightened concern over geopolitical risks and the experience of supply - side constraints caused by the pandemic. this implies that the trend of globalization, which has supported the growth of the global economy to date, is starting to change. such structural changes could exert both positive and negative effects on japan's medium - to longterm growth expectations and the potential growth rate. 2. risks to prices a risk factor for prices is firms'price - and wage - setting behavior in coming months. in the face of steep increases in raw material costs, moves to raise selling prices have been spreading even to firms that had not changed their selling prices for long ( chart 11 ). in this situation, medium - to long - term inflation expectations of economic entities, such as households, firms, and market participants, have also been rising. if rises in observed and expected inflation rates continue and create synergy effects, this could lead inflation to become higher than expected. meanwhile, there is also a possibility that the opposite will occur, if moves to rush the passthrough of cost increases to selling prices pause, supported by the projected high corporate profits. as for wages, the annual spring labor - management wage negotiations this year resulted in the highest wage growth rate since 1993. however, it is necessary to closely monitor future developments, considering that wage increases depend on business performance, even with a severe labor shortage. iii. the bank's monetary policy next, i