унутрашња употреба national bank of serbia opening remarks at the presentation of the inflation report – february 2019 dr zeljko jovic, vice governor belgrade, 13 february 2019 унутрашња употреба ladies and gentlemen, esteemed members of the press, dear colleagues, welcome to the presentation of the february inflation report. we will give you an overview of the current macroeconomic developments, our new inflation and economic activity projections, as well as monetary policy decisions in the period since the previous report. to begin with, i would like to stress that the year 2018 was marked by positive economic trends. according to the preliminary data of the serbian statistical office, gdp growth equalled 4. 4 %, which is its highest increase in ten years. though the second half of the year saw a slowdown in external demand growth, domestic factors are to be credited for the high growth rate. here i primarily have in mind the improvement of the business climate, favourable financial conditions, positive labour market trends, as well as the accelerated implementation of infrastructure projects. growth forecast for this year has been kept at 3. 5 %, while in the following years we expect growth to pick up further to around 4 %, resting on sustainable grounds. chart 1 inflation projection ( y - o - y rates, in % ) 12 3 2016. source : nbs. 12 3 chart 2 gdp growth projection ( y - o - y rates, in % ) 12 3 12 3 - 1 - 2 iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv source : nbs. even in conditions of strong economic growth, inflation continued to move within the target tolerance band ( 3. 0±1. 5 % ), in accordance with our expectations. it has been low and stable for more than five years straight – in december it measured 2. 0 % y - o - y, which is its average value for the whole of 2018 as well. for the following two years, i. e. until the end of the projection horizon, we expect stable inflation movements within the target band. serbia ’ s economic programme continues to yield strong results, as was recently noted by the international monetary fund. favourable fiscal trends continue – in 2018, for the second year in a row, the budget posted a surplus and the central government public debt decreased to 53. 6 % of gdp at

collective interests, and, on the other hand, a means to avoid mass litigations that hinder the normal functioning of courts and compromise citizens'access to justice. i must commend the organisers for not only selecting diverse topics but also bringing together speakers from the academia, legal practice, and regulatory bodies. i wish you a successful event, interactive presentations, and continued collaboration after this conference. i believe that while working, you will always keep in mind that you should strive for justice – strive for it because it exists, even if imperfect, and because it must be our ideal and our goal. i hope our guests will enjoy serbia and belgrade, and if this is their first time staying here, i hope that this will be just one of the first meetings in a series, right here in belgrade. thank you for your patience. our expectations from gatherings of this type are such that they should not burden you, but encourage you to achieve concrete results. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches