8 per cent in 2013 to 2. 5 per cent in both 2014 and 2015. this implies that the economy will return gradually to capacity over the next two years or so. • our recent analysis has given us an improved, yet still incomplete, understanding of the inflation picture. we now believe the effect of heightened retail competition will subtract about 0. 3 percentage points from core inflation in 2014. this effect will be more persistent than initially thought. • this finding, though, does not explain all of the weakness in inflation. and so, we are exploring whether the output gap has a greater impact on inflation than previously bis central bankers ’ speeches believed, especially when the gap is persistent. this interpretation seems to be relevant for other countries, as well as canada. • while increased competition will have a permanent effect on the level of prices, it will have a transitory effect on the rate of inflation. as such, we believe policy should look through it. • although the fundamental drivers of growth and future inflation appear to be strengthening, inflation is expected to remain well below target for some time, and therefore the downside risks to inflation have grown in importance. at the same time, risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed. • weighing these considerations, the bank judges that the balance of risks remains within the zone articulated in october, and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. the timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences this balance of risks. with that, tiff and i would be pleased to take your questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches

##ve customers over the years and measures were required to be taken by the banks to protect the customers. while it is good to know that banks have played their roles in investing in robust security systems, they must also ensure that customers play their part in protecting their own assets and savings. the reminder and greater awareness from the banks through this campaign is timely. it will not only reinforce the need for constant vigilance from all parties, but also help create an environment where everyone is risk conscious and responsible in protecting the interests of each other. these initiatives would not achieve the desired outcomes without effective bis central bankers ’ speeches communication, and the media has a critical role to play in conveying the message from the banks. we have always acknowledged the importance of the media and i would like to record bank negara malaysia ’ s appreciation for the assistance rendered by the media in creating awareness of this issue in the past. we hope that with the support of the media on this occasion too, this campaign will be a success, and the public will have heightened levels of understanding and vigilance over this issue. on behalf of bank negara malaysia, i would like to thank all the banks for taking this initiative to undertake this joint e - banking awareness campaign. our thanks also to cyber security and the police force for your ongoing efforts to collaborate with the banking industry. i wish all of you the best and assure you that bank negara malaysia will continuously support you in this noble effort. bis central bankers ’ speeches