example clothing imports, towards low - cost countries seems to be substantial again this year. structural changes in world trade have been important for the norwegian economy, not least for the rise in prices for imported goods and services. the shift in imports towards low - cost countries has come gradually. we have expected that the import pattern would gradually become more stable, but if the shift continues, the price - dampening effects of increased imports from low - cost countries in asia and central and eastern europe may persist longer than assumed. the change in china ’ s exchange rate regime in july, with a 2 per cent revaluation of the chinese currency, may over time have an impact on price developments for imported consumer goods. the global economy economic growth among trading partners appears to be somewhat lower this year than in 2004. in the years ahead, growth is expected to be relatively stable. the outlook for growth in different regions indicates that the imbalances in the global economy, with a large deficit in the us and large surpluses in a number of other countries, will persist. there are particularly large imbalances both in the us balance of trade and current account. persistent trade deficits have pushed up us foreign debt to a high level. this is partly due to the federal budget deficit. moreover, us households have a high level of consumption and a low level of saving. this may be related to a more rapid rise in the us population than in other oecd countries. this suggests in isolation that saving in the us is somewhat lower and investment somewhat higher, but the impact is now considerably greater than implied by demographic factors alone. the imbalances may persist, and may increase. international capital markets are deep and liquid with an ample supply of credit for us borrowers. so far, there is no indication that the us has problems in financing its deficit. if creditors begin to fear a fall in prices and withdraw from the market, substantial corrections may nevertheless be triggered. this may lead to higher interest rates and perhaps also a fall in us equity markets that spills over to other countries ’ financial markets. in that case, the dollar will also depreciate. the household debt burden in the us may be another source of instability if households abruptly reduce both housing demand and consumption. strong demand in the us has sustained growth in the world economy. we assume that growth will slow somewhat in the us in the period ahead. a more pronounced downturn cannot be ruled out, however. an abrupt and pronounced down

- pierre roth, an internal seminar on the history of the swiss currency in the 19th and 20th centuries was organised in the autumn of 2008 and in the spring of 2009. it became clear that no work yet existed which covered the entire period of the history of the swiss franc. it was this realisation that laid the foundation for this book. the book was ultimately written by expanding on the material derived from the internal seminar. as you will be able to conclude for yourself after reading the work, the result can certainly be considered a resounding success. the book by professor baltensperger is a beautifully illustrated work with fascinating contents. it is not only an attractive book, but is also a very valuable working tool. a special feature of this history of the swiss currency is that it was not written by a historian, but from the perspective of a monetary theorist. nevertheless, the author is not only an outstanding monetary theorist and academic teacher, he also has rich practical experience hans von keler, * 1925, german theologist. bis central bankers ’ speeches as an economic policy advisor. the snb ’ s governing board would like to thank ernst baltensperger for having made such a significant contribution to the understanding of the swiss franc. we would also like to thank the publishing house, nzz libro, and all the individuals participating in this project for their careful handling and publishing of this book. it is now my pleasure to give the floor to hans - peter thur. bis central bankers ’ speeches