a very high exchange rate. these events are, of course, related to one another and are really different sides of the same coin. it is worth noting that these developments have not led to unusually large shifts in the industry structure of employment, and they are unlikely to do so. while employment in the mining sector has increased by around 70, 000 people, or 40 per cent, over the past couple of years, its share of total employment is still low and the mining boom will not change the fact that the vast bulk of australians work in the services sector. instead, due to the capital - intensive nature of mining, it is in the investment figures where the evidence of structural change is clearest. over the next few years, mining - sector investment will reach new highs as a share of gdp, and is likely to account for around 40 per cent of total business investment ( graph 2 ). structural change is also clearly evident in the export numbers, with resources now accounting for around 60 per cent of total exports, up from 35 per cent a decade ago. graph 2 this boom in the mining sector and the terms of trade is having positive spillover effects to a number of areas of the economy, including parts of the services sector. it has delivered a very substantial increase in australia ’ s real income and this increase has boosted spending. but the accompanying high exchange rate is also having a contractionary effect on a number of sectors of the economy. the manufacturing sector is clearly one of these. over the past decade there has been little growth in manufacturing output and the level of employment has declined, particularly over bis central bankers ’ speeches the past couple of years ( graph 3 ). exports of manufactured goods also remain below the level reached in 2008. this stands in contrast to the volume of global trade which has regained its earlier peak. graph 3 notwithstanding these trends, manufacturing still has an important role to play in the australian economy. it employs around 950, 000 people and accounts for 9 per cent of output. this role is, however, changing. realistically, australia cannot hope to be a large - scale producer of relatively standardised, plain - vanilla, manufactured goods for the world market. but what we can be is a supplier of manufactured goods that build on our comparative advantages : our educated workforce ; our ability to design and manufacture specialised equipment ; our reputation for high - quality food ; our research and development skills ; and our expertise in mining - related equipment. inevitably, the high exchange rate means that the

sea indicate that the world is not necessarily a safer place than in previous decades. the global backdrop and the south african economy let me now turn to the influence that this global backdrop has had, and is likely to have, on the south african economy. these statistics use credit data at market value, converted at ppp - adjusted exchange rates. page 7 of 12 as i have mentioned above : the relatively benign global environment, coupled with the failure of key risks to materialise, has supported a continued inflow of capital towards emerging markets in 2017 – and south africa was no exception. iif statistics show that, in the first 10 months of the year, net non - resident purchases of south african debt instruments totalled us $ 4. 9 billion, up from us $ 1. 9 billion in the whole of last year. such inflows, up to the last couple of months, have helped the country [UNK] s financial assets to weather unfavourable domestic growth developments as well as political and policy uncertainty without any major, or lasting, consequences. for example, from early january to the end of august 2017, the rand [UNK] s trade - weighted exchange rate depreciated by only 2. 5 % and the yield on the benchmark r186 government bond declined by 35 basis points. in addition to global factors, downside surprises in domestic inflation figures for most of the first half of the year as well as a reduced deficit on the current account have contributed to the resilience of domestic fixedincome assets. yet, south africa [UNK] s domestic problems have prevented the country from fully benefiting from the benign global backdrop that historical experience and international comparisons would suggest. in fact, while the global risks seen at the start of 2017 did not materialise, several domestic risks became a reality, especially later in the year. this was illustrated by the depreciation of 6. 3 % in the nominal effective exchange rate of the rand and a rise of 53 basis points in the benchmark r186 government bond yield from the end of august to the end of october 2017. real economic growth failed to display any meaningful acceleration after a poor performance in 2016, despite the rebound in agricultural production following the previous year [UNK] s drought. at present, the sarb forecasts average growth of only 0. 7 % in 2017, after a mere 0. 3 % last year. hence, the gap between south african gdp growth and world gdp growth, which was minimal up to 2013,