) in guiding decisions on future prices and wages. i shall come back to the expectations of households and businesses later on, as they are more difficult to measure and influence. at this stage i would like to concentrate on market expectations, and the way in which the central bank should guide them. the essential variable here is the credibility of its communication and action. this credibility is underpinned first by a solid institutional foundation : i would just like to point out that this year marks the 30th anniversary of the law of august 1993 granting michael woodford, interest and prices : foundations of a theory of monetary policy ( 2003 ), princeton university press. page 5 of 19 the banque de france its independence. secondly, it requires unwavering determination and capacity to act : let me reiterate firmly here today, not just our forecast but also our commitment, alongside christine lagarde, to bring inflation back towards 2 % in the euro area and france by end - 2024 / 2025. credibility ultimately means renewing our communication : since last year, like all other major central banks, we have stopped giving the markets “ forward guidance ” in the form of a commitment to a path of key rates that is unconditional and / or extended over time, as this no longer appears suited to today ’ s highly uncertain environment. however, market expectations of the future path of key interest rates are an essential determinant of medium and long - term interest rates, those that matter the most for investment and spending decisions. we therefore need to aim, with humility, for a “ new predictability ” in our communication. 6 to do this we need to overcome at least one challenge, which relates to the overly strict interpretation of what “ deciding meeting - by - meeting ” means. as witnessed with our meetings at the end of last october and in december, this would lead to surprises and excessive volatility. monetary policy deserves better than a “ live ” prediction contest, or an overinterpretation of statements by different individuals. on 2 february, on the contrary, we made it clear that we intended to raise our key rates by another 50 basis points on 16 march, and that we would then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy. refusing to give long - term and unconditional “ guidance ” does not preclude providing some short - term visibility, today or tomorrow. the main thing is that our future decisions shall remain dependent, first and foremost, on the economic data

which was already well above the 10 - year average2. we are hopefully all concerned about the delays in implementing the paris agreement. the banque de france has conducted simulations on the basis of macro - financial scenarios developed by the ngfs, the network for greening the financial system : a late and disorderly transition would have far more adverse effects, ranging between 10 % and 20 % of world gdp by the end of the century ( compared with up to 7 % of gdp for an orderly transition ). beyond cop26, globally coordinated governmental forward - looking guidance is therefore necessary to anchor concrete and credible commitments, such as the one taken by the european union in its fit for 55 programme. and yes, policies to fight climate change should imperatively include an appropriate carbon price. be assured that central banks will do everything they can do. the ecb monetary policy strategy review, concluded last summer under president lagarde ’ s leadership, sets out an ambitious action plan leading up to 2024. but central banks and, beyond, financial intermediaries cannot substitute for adequate – and sometimes difficult – public policies. the green transition does hold risks – including for inflation –, but it also offers economic and financial opportunities, as new technologies gradually reach scalability. the sooner we start, the more positive ( or the less negative ) the economic balance will be. 2 / let me now turn to the second major transformation underway : the digital transformation. here, europe is still lagging behind the united states and china. it is of the utmost importance to remain at the technological frontier in order to reap the benefits of innovation in terms of productivity and growth, as the winner often takes all. beyond the economic fallouts, it is also a matter of strategic autonomy. these disruptions are also reflected in the monetary, financial and payments spheres – which we scrutinize as central banks and supervisors –, where digitalisation is bringing about a triple revolution – and it is far from over : ( i ) first, the arrival of new players : new actors born from the tech world – fintechs and bigtechs – are challenging historical players with radically new approaches to financial services and at present much less regulation ; ( ii ) second, the emergence of new assets : crypto - assets from the blockchain universe in the form of tokens : they will not be credible as “ crypto - currencies ”, but could be used as settlement means – think of stablecoins for instance