most vulnerable segments. as the new governor of the central bank of chile, i want to confirm to this commission our commitment to carry on the work done to this date, always ensuring high technical rigor in the analyses and decisions, as well as making every effort to take our institution to the highest possible standards. our responsibility is twofold. on one hand, keeping inflation low and stable, favoring sustainable growth. on the other, using our powers to identify and address the risks that could jeopardize the normal functioning of our financial system. this, of course, seeking to preserve the conditions that will foster economic growth and the welfare of the population. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 1 banks'average cds ( basis points ) liquidity conditions ( basis points ) 500 100 u. s. jul. 11 jul. ene. 10jul. 10ene. 11jul. 11 europe u. s. japan eurozone ( 1 ) simple average of 5 - year cds premiums. dotted line marks statistical cutoff date of previous report. ( 2 ) u. s. includes citigroup, goldman sachs, merrill lynch, jp morgan chase and bank of america. ( 3 ) europe includes societe generale, deutsche bank, ubs ag, santander, bbva and unicredit. ( 4 ) difference between the libo rate and the overnight indexed swap ( ois ), both at three months. for the eurozone, difference between euribo rate and respective ois. source : bloomberg. figure 2 manufacturing output ( * ) ( annual change, percent ) manufacturing pmi ( index, based = 50 ) - 10 - 10 - 20 - 20 india brazil china brazil china ( * ) for china, data up to november 2011 ; for the rest, up to october. source : bloomberg. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 3 interest rates in us dollars and pesos in local market ( porcentaje ) - 2 interest rates on private sector bonds ( 1 ) ( porcentaje ) - 2 libor + 90 - day on - shore spread ( us $ ) libor + 180 - day on - shore spread ( us $ ) aaa 90 - day deposits trated on stock exchange ( $ ) 180 - day deposits trated on stock exchange ( $ ) aa a ( 1 ) vertical dotted line marks statistical cutoff date of september's report. ( 2 ) considers long - term interest rates on corporate and bank

ipsa has increased about 17 % this year and more than 30 % since december 2015. although these numbers might ring some bells, the performance of the chilean index does not differ significantly from other regional stock markets and its recent behavior might just be a catch up from very low levels. measured in real terms, its current value does not seem to be an outlier either ( figure 7 ). figure 7 msci : latin america real ipsa ( fixed - base index : january 2013 = 100 ) ( fixed - base index : january 2001 = 100 ) mexico latin chile america colombia peru brazil 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 sources : central bank of chile and bloomberg. 12. the prolonged strike at the escondida, the open - pit copper mine with the world ’ s largest production, will have a very important effect on our first quarter gdp figures. it already did in the imacec of february, which showed a yoy contraction of 1. 3 %, with a fall of 17. 1 % of its mining component. since the strike ended in late march and resuming normal production levels is not instantaneously, the figures of that month will also be affected. if you add the continued weakness in construction, the economy could experience an expansion close to 0 % in the first quarter of the year. however, one should not forget that the strike at escondida, while very relevant to explain the first quarter figure, is a oneoff event that is not expected to generate significant spillovers on activity elsewhere in the economy, nor on inflation. 13. for these reasons we reduced our growth forecast for 2017, and we are now projecting gdp will be in the 1 - 2 % range ( 1. 5 - 2. 5 % in december ). at the same time, for 2018 we are expecting the economy to grow between 2. 25 and 3. 25 % ( table 1 ). the growth recovery is based on the fact that the economy does not appear to have any relevant imbalances, the mining - related investment adjustment is expected to end, and as i mentioned at the beginning of my presentation, the global outlook appears more favorable. fiscal policy is assumed to follow the fiscal consolidation path announced by the government. table 1 domestic scenario ( annual change, percent ) gdp domestic demand domestic demand ( w / o inventory change ) gross fixed capital formation total consumption goods and services exports goods and services imports current account ( % of gdp ) gross national saving ( % of