september ecb staff projections foresee average annual hicp inflation at between 3. 4 % and 3. 6 % in 2008, and between 2. 3 % and 2. 9 % in 2009. the higher inflation projections for 2008 and 2009 mainly reflect higher energy prices and, to a lesser extent, higher food and services prices than assumed previously. in this context, it is important to recall the conditional nature of the ecb staff projections. they are based on a number of assumptions that are of a purely technical nature and unrelated to policy intentions. in particular, the technical assumptions for short - term interest rates reflect market expectations as at mid - august. moreover, it should be noted that the projections are based on the assumption that oil and non - oil commodity prices, while remaining at elevated levels, will exhibit greater stability over the projection horizon than has been the case in recent months, in line with prevailing futures prices. it is the governing council ’ s view that, at the policy - relevant medium - term horizon, there are upside risks to the outlook for price developments. these risks include the possibility of renewed increases in commodity prices and of previous rises having further and stronger indirect effects on consumer prices. there is particularly a very strong concern that the emergence of broad - based second - round effects in price and wage - setting behaviour could add significantly to inflationary pressures. moreover, the upside risks to price stability could be aggravated by unexpected rises in indirect taxes and administered prices. against this background, it is imperative to ensure that medium to longer - term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored at levels in line with price stability. broad - based secondround effects stemming from the impact of higher energy and food prices on price and wagesetting behaviour must be avoided. the governing council is monitoring price - setting behaviour and wage negotiations in the euro area with particular attention. all parties concerned – in both the private and the public sectors – must meet their responsibilities in this regard. the governing council has repeatedly expressed its concern about the existence of schemes in which nominal wages are indexed to consumer prices. such schemes involve the risk of upward shocks in inflation leading to a wage - price spiral, which would be detrimental to employment and competitiveness in the countries concerned. the governing council calls for these schemes to be abolished. the monetary analysis confirms the prevailing upside risks to price stability at medium to longer - term horizons. in line with our monetary policy strategy, we take the view that the sustained underlying strength of monetary and credit expansion in the euro

european central bank : press conference – introductory statement introductory statement by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank and mr lucas papademos, vice - president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 4 september 2008. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice - president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today ’ s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by commissioner almunia. on the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, at today ’ s meeting we decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the information that has become available since the last meeting has confirmed that annual inflation rates are likely to remain well above levels consistent with price stability for a protracted period of time and that upside risks to price stability over the medium term prevail. while the growth of broad money and credit aggregates is now showing some signs of moderation, the still strong underlying pace of monetary expansion points to continued upside risks to price stability over the medium term. the latest economic data also confirm the weakening of real gdp growth in mid - 2008. this reflects partly an expected technical reaction to the strong growth seen in the first quarter as well as dampening effects from global and domestic factors, including direct and indirect effects from high commodity prices. in this environment, it remains imperative to avoid broad - based second - round effects in price and wage - setting. in full accordance with our mandate, we emphasise that maintaining price stability in the medium term is our primary objective and that we are resolute in our determination to keep medium and long - term inflation expectations firmly anchored in line with price stability. this will preserve purchasing power in the medium term and support sustainable growth and employment. on the basis of our assessment, the current monetary policy stance will contribute to achieving our objective. we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead. allow me to explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. according to eurostat ’ s first estimate, following strong quarterly growth of 0. 7 % in the first quarter, euro area real gdp contracted by 0. 2 % in the second quarter of 2008. in terms of quarter - on - quarter growth, private consumption declined by 0. 2 % and there was a perceptible weakness in investment, which fell by 1. 2 %. growth in both euro area imports and exports declined by 0. 4