growth, average hours worked, and job - finding rate. the lmi is scaled to be comparable with the unemployment rate, and thus provide a simple benchmark against which to judge whether the unemployment rate is evolving in a manner consistent with broader labour market conditions. see k. zmitrowicz and m. khan, “ beyond the unemployment rate : assessing canadian and u. s. labour markets since the recession, ” bank of canada review ( spring 2014 ) : 42 – 53. increases in involuntary part - time work were observed across age groups and accounted for virtually all of the increase in the share of part - time employment. for additional details on the evolution of labour force participation rates and part - time employment across age groups and regions, see c. cheung, d. granovsky and g. velasco, “ changing labour market participation since the great recession : a regional perspective, ” discussion paper no. 2015 – 2, bank of canada, february 2015. l. b. kahn and e. mcentarfer, “ employment cyclicality and firm quality, ” nber working paper no. 20698, november 2014. p. diamond and a. sahin, “ shifts in the beveridge curve, ” federal reserve bank of new york staff report no. 687, august 2014. t. lane, “ drilling down – understanding oil prices and their economic impact ” ( speech to madison international trade association, madison, wisconsin, 13 january 2015 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches $ 60 per barrel and monetary policy did not respond, gross domestic income would be about 4 1 / 2 per cent lower by the end of 2016. 13 that would affect incomes of canadians. while some regions will clearly bear more of the brunt than others, the impact will be felt across the country. nearly one - third of the goods and services purchased by the alberta energy industry are drawn from other provinces – and so are the workers. 14 lower incomes would also lead to an increase in household imbalances. we laid all this out in our january monetary policy report. many of the negative effects of lower oil prices on growth happen swiftly. energy - related firms are already paring back investment and hiring intentions. we expect capital investment in the oil and gas sector to fall by about 30 per cent in 2015. this is huge given the importance of investment in this sector for overall growth. current spot prices are below fullcycle break - even cost estimates for most oil sands projects, which can

sector, combined with continued moderate growth in household spending, should boost business confidence and investment – investment that will contribute to higher productivity growth. but this growth is expected to be offset by a further slowing in trend labour input, such that potential output growth remains fairly stable at about 2 per cent ( with a range of ± 0. 3 percentage points ). the projected slowdown in the growth rate of trend labour input ( from 0. 8 per cent in 2013 to 0. 5 per cent in 2016 ) is the result of the continuing demographic trends i mentioned earlier. this could change a little if older people stay in the workforce longer or increase the average number of hours they work. whether or not they do so will depend importantly on their financial situation and whether they think they can afford to retire. for example, if 15, 000 additional workers over 55 decide to stay in the labour force next year, we could expect the growth rate of trend labour input to remain stable. the growth rate of trend labour productivity is expected to continue to increase in the next few years, reaching an above - average rate of 1. 4 per cent in 2015. since the recession, we have seen strong investment in the mining, oil and gas sector ( chart 6 ). given the time it takes for these investments to translate into stronger output, the continued expansion of infrastructure in this sector is expected to contribute to future productivity growth. the bank expects to see greater investment across most sectors of the economy. investment in machinery and equipment ( m & e ) and in research and development ( r & d ), which have been slower to recover, are expected to gain strength as foreign activity, in particular u. s. demand, accelerates. in addition to contributing directly to productivity through capital deepening ( the amount of capital available per worker ), investment in m & e and r & d are associated with the adoption and creation of new technologies and processes that have a further positive effect on productivity. other factors that are expected to contribute to the recovery in the growth of trend labour productivity include canada ’ s highly educated workforce, which will be able to adapt quickly to new technologies. 7 as well, we expect firms to continue to adjust to the strong canadian dollar as they adapt to highly competitive international markets. stronger investment also means more new jobs. already we are seeing job creation in occupations that demand relatively high skill levels in industries with above - average wages. recent experience has shown how new technologies and industries can emerge from although canada has a