this year. but norges bank's regional network enterprises are a little more optimistic than they were earlier this year and expect some increase in activity ahead. there are still wide differences across industries. companies supplying goods and services to the petroleum industry are still doing well. in the construction industry, activity is low and companies expect a further decline ahead. sales of new homes are sluggish, but activity in the secondary home market is high and prices have risen markedly so far this year. labour market tightness has eased in recent years, as have recruitment difficulties facing businesses. registered unemployment has increased somewhat from a very low level. at the same time, employment has continued to edge up and the employment - topopulation ratio is high. chart : wage growth is high wage growth has risen over several years. while pay increases have been high, they have not kept pace with the rise in prices. we expect wage growth to reach 5. 2 percent this year, which is the same rate as last year. chart : inflation has slowed, but is still above target inflation has fallen markedly since the end of 2022. in may, consumer prices were 3 percent higher than one year ago. excluding energy prices, which have decreased, inflation is around 4 percent. in norway, like in other trading partner countries, goods inflation has fallen sharply, particularly imported goods inflation. services inflation is still elevated, partly owing to the sharp rise in labour costs in recent years. with modest growth in productivity, higher pay increases mean that businesses are facing higher costs. this could contribute to keeping inflation elevated ahead. chart : the policy rate will probably be kept unchanged for some time in order to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable time horizon, it will likely be necessary to maintain a tight monetary policy stance for somewhat longer than envisaged earlier. in recent months, inflation has been a little lower than expected. at the same time, the economy appears to be performing slightly better than we had expected, and wages appear to be rising faster. both developments indicate that it will take longer to bring inflation back to target. if the policy rate is lowered prematurely, inflation could remain above target for too long. if the economy evolves as we currently envisage, we will keep the policy rate at 4. 5 percent to the end of the year before a gradual easing of monetary policy can begin. towards the end of the projection period, the policy rate will be close to what we now assess to be a neutral range somewhat

vis the other banks. the result of this clearing is sent four times a day to nbo. there the balances of banks ’ accounts with norges bank are adjusted. when the banks have been notified that the settlement in norges bank is in order, the banks adjust their customers ’ accounts. all the large banks participate in these settlements. dnb and sparebank 1 smn also participate in the settlement in norges bank on behalf of smaller banks. today, norges bank has published a new survey of payment costs using data from 2013. the overall social costs of using cash, payment cards and giro payments amount to just under nok 15 billion, 3 or 0. 6 percent of mainland gdp. the estimate includes the costs for both providers and users of payment services. these costs have declined since they were last estimated in 2007. compared with other countries, the costs of the norwegian payment system are low. this is a benefit to customers and represents a comparative advantage for the norwegian business sector. there are several reasons why payment costs are low in norway. new technology resulted in an early introduction in norway of cost - efficient electronic systems. banks led with new solutions, and the public adopted them quickly. banks have collaborated on both the establishment and the operation of new services. the resulting economies of scale made it possible to keep costs low. norwegian and nordic banks are at the forefront of developments in this area. norway is among the world leaders in the use of payment cards. eight out of ten card transactions take place using bankaxept, one of the solutions that banks have developed. according to norges bank ’ s estimates, the social cost of using bankaxept is around nok 3 per payment. by comparison, payments using international payment cards cost society nok 13, or four times as much. credit card use is increasing. it is the point of sale, typically a shop, which pays the costs connected with use, and not the cardholder. while the merchant pays around nok 0. 10 when the customer uses bankaxept, the merchant must usually pay between 1 and see norges bank papers 5 / 2014. bis central bankers ’ speeches 2 percent of the purchase amount when the customer chooses visa or mastercard. merchants are free to pass on this cost to card users, but this seldom happens in norway. customers are thus not charged correct prices when given a choice of payment solution. the result can be that an inexpensive solution – bankaxept – is supplanted