nearly 6 years since the start of the crisis, the level of output in the economy is still 2 % below its peak in 2008. a conservative extrapolation of the pre - crisis trend would suggest that uk output is some 15 – 20 % below where it would have been expected to be by this time in the absence of the crisis. it seems unlikely that we will recover much of that gap and in any case the calculation is getting less precise and less relevant. eventually, economic historians may work out what happened to potential output and we should establish a new reference point. as things stand today, it is difficult to know precisely where the new sustainable growth path of the economy lies ( especially as data for the past few years are still likely to undergo significant revision by the ons ). but with unemployment still elevated, and diminishing signs of inflationary pressure in both goods and labour markets, we can be reasonably confident that the economy needs to grow strongly for some time to come, to regain a stable and sustainable medium - term trajectory. the challenge for the mpc is to assess when inflationary pressures will be building and thus when we need to start withdrawing stimulus, so that once we have eliminated slack in the economy, monetary policy is consistent with stable, sustainable growth and hence stable inflation around the target ( subject of course to the other forces acting on the economy at the time ). that ’ s an extremely optimistic expectation of what policy can achieve, so let me put it slightly differently. the realistic challenge for the mpc is to avoid a big mistake either by choking off the recovery too soon, leaving the economy in a quagmire, or by allowing inflationary pressures to build excessively, requiring a sharp tightening in interest rates ( and the potential for another recession ) to bring inflation back under control. forward guidance is a policy framework designed, amongst other things, to help avoid big mistakes. we can encourage and probe growth in the economy by committing not to tighten policy until the economy has used up more of its spare capacity. on one view the policy is simple – we must give the economy plenty of time to establish the recovery before we start to raise interest rates or unwind asset purchases. at another level, some critical judgements are bis central bankers ’ speeches going to be needed because the timing is inevitably uncertain. given those uncertainties, forward guidance delivers a framework within which the mpc can explore the scope for economic expansion without putting price and financial stability at risk. that guidance

more, broader, market participants means a wider range of potential employment opportunities for those keen to join the market. workforce diversity differs across sectors ( figure 4 ) and across firms within sectors. but it also means that service providers need to get better at relationship management, investing more in understanding increasingly diverse customer needs. it is striking, for example, that portfolio managers in asia are twice as likely to be female ( figure 5 ) ; and the gender mix of retail fx trading in europe – a rapidly growing market segment – is approaching 50 / 50 ( figure 6 ). it would be too simplistic to say that service providers need to be as diverse as their customer base. 14 but recruiting from a broader diversity pool and hiring people with different life experiences helps firms understand the mindset of their clients better, improving customer engagement and ultimately increasing returns. https : / / newfinancial. org / wp - content / uploads / 2016 / 06 / women _ in _ uk _ finserv _ 2016 _ final. pdf see for instance, p. 11 of the 2016 cfa report on gender diversity in investment management at : https : / / www. cfainstitute. org / en / research / survey - reports / gender - diversity - report all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / publications / pages / speeches / default. aspx figure 5 : female representation in portfolio management by region15 figure 6 : gender breakdown of retail fx traders16 my final point is on culture. public authorities and firms right across the financial spectrum have put an enormous amount of effort into culture change in recent years. painful fines and enforcement actions have led to intense scrutiny of internal conduct. over 330 firms have signed the uk women in finance charter, committing themselves to supporting the progression of women into senior roles, setting and publishing progress against gender diversity targets, linking senior executive pay to those targets, and appointing a named senior executive to be accountable for gender diversity. 17 and the fx global code that i mentioned earlier has introduced clearly defined standards demonstrating which behaviours are no longer acceptable, rebuilding trust in the market and removing obstacles to open, non - biased recruitment. these higher ethical standards will make the sector more accessible and inclusive, improving the number of opportunities, but also strengthening the appeal of working in the fx market. https : / / www. oliverwyman. com / our - expertise / insights / 2016 / jun / women - in - financial - services