with price stability. economic actors are confident that the snb will also be able to keep inflation well under control over the long term. in view of the stable inflation expectations, it is not surprising that long - term rates have changed little since the beginning of the year. the yield on ten - year confederation bonds has fluctuated between – 0. 1 % and + 0. 2 % since the start of 2018. andrea maechler will examine exchange rate and interest rate developments in more detail later. monetary policy outlook let me summarise the key points with regard to monetary policy. we anticipate that our economy has expanded by around 2. 5 % this year. in line with a gradual slowdown in the global economy and high capacity utilisation in switzerland, domestic growth is likely to stabilise at around 1. 5 % next year. the inflation forecast for this year is unchanged ; for 2019 and 2020 it is somewhat below our forecast last quarter. the swiss franc is still highly valued. given the slightly muted inflation outlook and the continued fragility in the exchange rate situation, our expansionary monetary policy remains appropriate. with the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, we support economic activity and ensure price stability. ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. it is now my pleasure to give the floor to fritz zurbrugg. page 4 / 4

economic developments abroad, as these have a considerable bearing on the inflation and economic outlook in switzerland. the global economy is somewhat less robust than it was a few months ago. although the pace of growth remains strong worldwide, it is no longer quite as pronounced as at the beginning of the year. one reason for this is that the economic recovery is already well advanced in many countries, and momentum is slowing as a result of the high utilisation of production factors. another reason is that a number of uncertainties are hampering growth. in this context, global growth lost momentum somewhat in the third quarter. this was largely attributable to special factors, such as production losses in the german automotive industry and extreme weather events in japan. economic expansion in the us and china remained robust. employment figures in the advanced economies rose again and unemployment continued to decline. the growth in international trade in goods also continued. in our baseline scenario for global economic developments, we anticipate solid growth in the coming quarters. in the short term, the world economy is set to continue to expand somewhat above potential, benefiting from the clear improvement in the labour market situation and the ongoing expansionary monetary policy in the advanced economies. however, a gradual slowdown is likely in the medium term. nevertheless, we also see significant risks to this baseline scenario, primarily in connection with political uncertainties and protectionist tendencies. these risks have considerable potential for damage. the resulting uncertainty alone can curb growth and weaken the resilience of the global economy. for instance, surveys indicate that trade tensions have prompted companies to reassess their investment plans and value chains. as far as brexit is concerned, uncertainty remains high following the postponement of the vote in the uk parliament. the tension surrounding italy ’ s fiscal policy also persists. all these risks could lead to turbulence in the financial markets, jeopardise global economic growth, and also influence monetary policy. page 2 / 4 berne, 13 december 2018 thomas jordan news conference swiss economic outlook i shall now turn to the economic outlook for switzerland. according to initial estimates, swiss gdp fell by an annualised rate of 0. 9 % in the third quarter. despite this decline, gdp was still 2. 4 % higher year - on - year thanks to the strong expansion in the previous quarters. how are we to assess this development? first, a slowdown in momentum was to be expected after several very strong quarters. second, the decline in gdp