turalay kenc : the turkish economic outlook and monetary policy – challenges and policy response remarks by mr turalay kenc, deputy governor of the central bank of the republic of turkey, at the eu ambassadors meeting, ankara, 28 january 2016. * * * i would like to start by thanking his excellency ambassador cornelis van rij for the opportunity to share with such distinguished audience some views about the turkish economy, the challenges stemming from a very volatile external environment, and the policy approach that has been implemented to cope with these challenges. the turkish economy has shown a relatively robust performance in the face of major external and internal shocks. gdp growth is estimated at around 4 percent in 2015 with an expected gradual strengthening of economic activity in 2016 and in 2017. the rise in gdp growth rate observed in 2015 is mostly attributed to strong private consumption. private investment recorded a moderate recovery. the challenging external conditions especially geopolitical events in the region have adversely affected exports. however, the economic recovery in most eu member states enabled turkey to largely compensate its loss in other exports markets as turkey increased exports to the eu countries by more than 10 percent in euro terms in 2015. this outcome also highlights turkish exporters ’ resiliency in adopting to adverse economic conditions. of course, probably the most significant development of the last year or so has been the sharp decline in oil prices. turkey, being an energy importing country benefited from lower oil prices in many dimensions. the current account deficit fell from $ 52 billion in june 2014 to below $ 35 billion in november 2015 in 12 month rolling terms. this sharp improvement in the current account balances is also greatly helped by prudent macro - economic polices including monetary, macro - prudential and fiscal policies. tight monetary policy, well - targeted macroprudential measures and strong fiscal balances have all contributed to lower levels of domestic demand by stabilizing loan growth and reducing risk taking behavior. going forward, the current levels in oil prices and depressed producer prices in most part of the world due to weak economic activity are expected to lead to further improvements in external balances. therefore, it is highly likely that turkey will record a current account deficit of below 4 percent of its gross domestic product in 2016, representing a major achievement in satisfying the norm of the european union ’ s macroeconomic imbalances procedure. unlike these positive developments in the economy, inflation increased and its outlook worsened in 2015 reflecting the pass - through from the tl

peter praet : the state of the global economy speech by mr peter praet, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the 4th world policy conference, vienna, 9 december 2011. * * * i would like to thank for john hutchinson and arnaud mehl for their contributions in the preparation of this speech. ladies and gentlemen, it is a real pleasure to be here in vienna to exchange views on the future of global governance. vienna is certainly a city with a long tradition of discussing issues with a global dimension. following my invitation to speak at this conference, i remembered that, almost 200 years ago, it was here that the famous congress of vienna attempted to forge what came to be known as the “ concert of europe ”. this marked the creation of a new global order and a major turning point in world history. the global economy today is also at a turning point. what we have been observing since the unprecedented financial market tensions in mid - 2007, is not merely the unfolding of a global financial and economic crisis. we have been observing the emergence of a new global order, which is occurring at a faster pace than was anticipated prior to the crisis. the exact form this new world will take is unclear. but the need for sound global governance, which we will discuss today and tomorrow, is becoming ever more apparent. on the economic front, several important changes have already occurred. the g20 has replaced the g7 as prime forum for international economic cooperation. the financial stability board has been established to address vulnerabilities and develop regulatory and supervisory policies conducive to global financial stability. bodies based at the bank for international settlements in basel, which are of keen interest to the central banking community, have also been reformed and their membership enlarged to relevant emerging market players. in assessing the state of the global economy today, i would like to emphasise that we are at a crossroads. in this respect, i would like to make three specific points. firstly, i will describe the outlook and risks for the global economy and euro area. i will then discuss the interplay between the current prospects and key policy challenges : namely global real and financial imbalances as well as liquidity and capital flow volatility. finally, i will briefly comment on major governance challenges in the eurozone. * let me commence by depicting how i see the outlook and key risks for the global economy and euro area at this juncture. against a background of heightened uncertainty