move around the target midpoint in the year that follows. the stability of the exchange rate has become a new normal for serbia. before august 2012, stronger volatility was allowed, which led to the strengthening of inflationary pressures, business uncertainty, high exchange rate differences and the increase in 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches non - performing loans, whereas from that time on, one of the basic characteristics of the national bank of serbia and the overall financial system is the relative stability of the exchange rate of the dinar against the euro. record high fx reserves of over eur 25 bn at end - may are an important factor of our country's stronger resilience to any potential shock from the international environment. economic activity stepped up to 4. 7 % y - o - y in q1. we expect economic growth to reach 3. 5 % in 2024 overall, and to accelerate to 4 – 5 % from 2025, supported by investments within the " leap into the future – serbia 2027 " programme, subsiding global inflationary pressures and more favourable financial conditions. owing to the generally good economic situation in the country, a significant number of banks expect loans to the corporate and household sectors to grow by over 5 % this year and next, as reported in the latest bank lending survey. the trust we have built is best confirmed by the growth in savings and their record levels. namely, dinar savings rose from under rsd 18 bn at end - 2012 to over rsd 159 bn now and fx savings from eur 8. 3 bn to eur 14. 9 bn. all data show that we managed to preserve and additionally strengthen the stability of the banking sector despite the numerous challenges and risks which serbia, as a small and open economy, was exposed to in the prior period. this was also recognised by international investors and rating agencies. in april 2024, standard & poor's upgraded serbia's outlook from stable to positive, placing our country at a half a step away from investment grade. the national bank of serbia's unwavering commitment and a proactive approach, along with the constructive cooperation of the banking sector, have created the regulatory prerequisites for the approval of numerous debt repayment facilities to businesses and households, facilitated natural persons'access to bank financing and improved the protection of the interests of financial services consumers. and why do i always say that our successes are shared – because we would not be able to do it without

2 24. 2 21. 5 5. 7 5. 0 4. 0 ( in % ) 8. 0 4. 5 chart 4 share of investment in nominal gdp 5. 3 4. 5 previous projection new projection 4. 5 2021 * 2022 * 2023 * 2024 * 2025 * 2026 * sources : sors and nbs calculation * nbs estimate. 21. 5 20. 0 previous projection new projection 20. 0 2021 * 2022 * 2023 * 2024 * 2025 * 2026 * sources : sors and nbs calculation * nbs estimate. high economic growth rates are also recorded by some advanced countries – some european countries, but above all the united states and china, whose rising demand brings many specificities, but also leaves consequences on the movement of prices and other macroeconomic indicators globally. expectedly, the faster global economic recovery reflected on inflation movements in almost all countries. the news on the invention and distribution of the vaccine spurred optimism as to the global economic recovery, leading to a sudden rise in demand, to which the supply could not adjust in the short term, given the still present restrictions and halts in global supply chains. this led to a sudden hike in the global oil price, as well as in the prices of primary agricultural commodities, metals and different materials used in industry and construction. as a consequence, inflation rose to 5. 4 % in the united states, to 6. 5 % in russia, to 2. 2 % in the euro area, while in germany y - o - y inflation climbed to 3. 8 % in july, its highest level in almost three decades. chart 5 primary commodity price index chart 6 cpi for selected countries ( 2010 = 100 ) ( y - o - y rates, in % ) non - energy price index agriculture energy * metals and minerals * * 5. 4 3. 8 2. 2 1. 9 germany usa euro area * italy - 1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 source : world bank. * crude oil, natural gas and coal. * * copper, aluminium, iron ore, lead, nickel, zinc and tin. - 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 source : eurostat, fed, destatis, istat * hicp speaking of serbia, despite the fact that some market segments have witnessed price increases, mostly as a consequence of the globally rising cost - push pressures, headline inflation continues to move around the target