( april 2016 ) : pp. 57 - 67. 9 kathryn holston, thomas laubach, and john c. williams, " measuring the natural rate of interest : international trends and determinants, " journal of international economics 108 ( may 2017 ) : s59 - s75. 10 these issues are discussed in detail in " adapting the laubach and williams and holston, laubach, and williams models to the covid - 19 pandemic, " and " measuring the natural rate of interest after covid - 19, " by kathryn holston, thomas laubach, and john c. williams. 11 federal reserve bank of new york, measuring the natural rate of interest. 12 oxford covid - 19 government response tracker, blavatnik school of government, university of oxford. 13 note that we no longer produce hlw estimates for the united kingdom because the model does not provide a good fit for the data. the estimates for the uk were highly imprecise even before the pandemic and the subsequent data has exacerbated this problem. 14 thomas laubach and john c. williams. " measuring the natural rate of interest, " review of economics and statistics 85, no. 4 ( november 2003 ) : 1063 - 70.

, uncertainty about the implications of the united kingdom leaving the eu remains high, in a setting in which the spanish economy has significant exposure to this country in terms of services exports and financial ties. this uncertainty is also affected by the context of low returns in europe's financial system and of the fragility of certain institutions. on the domestic front, several factors of vulnerability persist. one of them arises from the level of public indebtedness ( which i will refer to later ) and that of certain segments of the household and corporate sectors, which entails high reliance on foreign saving and represents a source of weakness in the face of possible increases in the cost of borrowing. also, despite efficiency improvements, our economy remains highly sensitive to potential increases in commodities prices, particularly, oil prices. from a medium - term perspective, the high structural component of the unemployment rate, an ageing population and low productivity are the main factors limiting the sustained growth of our economy. i shall now review the main features of the budget. budgetary policy in 2017 the macroeconomic forecasts accompanying the draft state and social security budgets for 2017 involve the prolongation of the current expansionary phase. specifically, they estimate real gdp growth of 2. 5 %, accompanied by a recovery in prices, so that nominal gdp growth is slightly above 4 %. the macroeconomic projections used in the preparation of the draft budget are broadly compatible with the scenario that i have just referred to, which forms the backdrop to the latest forecasts of the banco de espana, and also with the consensus scenario of private analysts. real growth in 2017 under the consensus scenario is somewhat lower than 5 / 9 projected by the banco de espana ( 2. 5 % as against 2. 8 % ), but the nominal gdp growth forecasts are in line with each other. the deficit target for general government as a whole is 3. 1 % of gdp for 2017, which is compatible with the requirements of the stability and growth pact and involves a projected reduction of 1. 4 pp of gdp. achievement of this target is essential for spain to resolve its situation of “ excessive deficit ” ( more than 3 % of gdp ) in 2018. public debt, according to the draft budget, will be 98. 8 % of gdp in 2017, down 0. 6 pp of gdp from 2016. the slight downward trend of recent years, from the peak of 100. 4 % in 2014, is therefore extended. in this macroeconomic context, it should come as