there has been a resumption in the growth of mutual funds after the decline in qiv 2009, due to uncertainties about changes in the pricing mechanism. balance of payments the balance of payments data for the first quarter show ( relative to the previous quarter ) : a sharp increase in energy exports, largely due to prices a reduction in non - energy exports significantly lower imports reflecting soft domestic demand ( both consumption and investment ) the external current account has returned into surplus and there has been an increase in official reserves of some us $ 459 million so far this year. as at june 2010, gross official reserves stood at us $ 9. 1 billion ( 12. 5 months of imports ). this excludes us $ 3. 1 billion held in the heritage and stabilization fund. outlook the short - term outlook for the economy of trinidad and tobago is uncertain and will be dependent on the strength of the ongoing global recovery and the level of fiscal support that the government will be able to provide. it is reasonable to expect that for the next several months, the level of external demand will continue to facilitate continued expansion of the petrochemical sector at current price levels. on this basis, even if the non - energy sector remains flat, real gdp growth for the year as a whole should reach 1 to 1. 5 per cent. the continued stagnation in the non - energy sector could, however, have adverse consequences for unemployment which could easily rise to the 6 – 6. 5 per cent range. moving forward, a strong recovery of the non - energy sector will be the key to a faster rate of growth of output and employment in 2011. while monetary conditions could contribute through a much sharper reduction in bank lending rates, the original impulse will need to come from the public sector. in this context the fy 2011 budget will be challenged to secure the right balance between the need for maintaining an adequate level of capital expenditure and stimulating business activity, on the one hand, and the medium term objective of fiscal consolidation on the other. urgent energy tax reform to encourage oil and gas exploration and the need to incorporate new initiatives, including for poverty alleviation programmes, will further complicate fiscal policy. as noted above, the sharp rise in headline inflation will present additional challenges for economic policy. continued increases in food prices will certainly affect wage demands and other price setting behaviour and could soon be reflected in core inflation. in these circumstances, monetary policy would need to be more active in the fight against inflation. of

for greater collaboration with others. in this regard, i would like to see greater collaboration between cartac and other like - minded regional institutions such as the university of the west indies, cemla and the ccmf. in closing, i wish to remind you all that this meeting is taking place the day before two successive national holidays, corpus christi and indian arrival day. the timing is therefore opportune for you to experience some of our country's religious and cultural heritage and to partake in our delicious indigenous cuisine. i thank you and wish you all a very productive meeting. bis central bankers ’ speeches