, and 3. 2 to 4. 2 percent for 2016. 5 the main growth engines are sustained exports on the back of robust u. s. economic performance and a pickup in domestic private spending. greater manufacturing exports to the united states should continue to drive an all - important sector of the mexican economy, manufactured goods, particularly the automotive industry. lower gasoline prices in the united states could provide an even greater boost to demand in this sector. in addition, recovery of the mexican construction sector should continue in the wake of the restructuring of the private - sector housing industry. the consumer in mexico is not overly indebted, another factor which should further aid housing - sector recuperation. as growth continues, employment and the real wage bill will likely expand, boosting domestic consumption. finally, mexican banks are in a solid position overall, from which they are ready to support private - sector expansion. there are downside risks to this scenario. first, relatively low levels of consumer and producer confidence could remain stagnant. second, social unrest may have negative effects on economic activity. third, continued declines in oil production would further dampen the mining sector, with negative implications for overall gdp. lower oil prices would also put stress on the public finances. it is worth noting that the importance of oil in the mexican economy continues to diminish. the county ’ s oil production platform has been declining since 2004. while oil exports account for a low, decreasing fraction of total exports, currently the oil trade balance is relatively small. the direct negative impact of cheaper oil is on mexico ’ s public finances, since the government - owned oil producer ( pemex ) is a net oil exporter. for 2015, the government ’ s exposure to price fluctuations is hedged. 6 on the upside, u. s. economic strength could gain more force, and greater - than - currently expected benefits from mexican structural reforms could start to kick in. my second focus for mexico is on the financial markets. global volatility has certainly hit domestic markets, but they have operated with ample liquidity and without disruption. in particular, the weakening of the peso since mid - 2014 largely reflects global factors such as generalized dollar appreciation and the drop in oil prices. foreign - exchange ( fx ) adjustment has been orderly, as reflected by high trade volumes and low bid - ask spreads. also, the derivative markets have allowed investors to hedge fx risks, as evidenced by the short peso position recently seen in the chicago

peso - dollar futures markets. 7 however, the share of peso - denominated government bond holdings by nonresidents remains high and has even increased recently to reach new records. also, mexico ’ s yield see blue chip economic indicators ( 2015 ), top analysts ’ forecasts of the u. s. economic outlook for the year ahead, january ; and banco de mexico ( 2014 ), quarterly report, july - september 2014, summary, november. for details on the mexican government ’ s oil hedge, see shcp ( 2014 ), “ el gobierno federal cubrio la totalidad de los ingresos petroleros para 2015. ” comunicado de prensa 097 / 2014. for an outlook of real and financial variables see, for example banco de mexico ( 2014 ), encuesta sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en economia del sector privado : diciembre 2014, december. bis central bankers ’ speeches curve has shifted downward and flattened in the last year. in other words, the peso has depreciated, but interest rates remain not too far from their all - time lows. the relative resilience of the domestic financial markets during recent months does not mean that the economy is immune to future shocks. uncertainty on the timing and pace of u. s. monetary normalization still looms, making it likely the ride in financial markets will be bumpy and posing challenges for the management of long - term fixed - income positions, among others. in this context, authorities must take a proactive stance, first by fortifying macroeconomic fundamentals in order to provide a shield against external forces. second, they must remain on alert, identifying possible systemic financial risks in time to make adjustments. one final point concerns monetary policy and inflation. as you know, from march 2013 to june 2014, the bank of mexico cut its policy interest rate target by 150 basis points in the context of weak economic activity. during 2014, inflation tended to remain above the upper limit of the variability interval around the permanent target of 3 percent. major factors for these pressures came from tax hikes implemented since the beginning of the year, and certain agricultural price increases. inflation will likely be lower during 2015 given favorable base tax effects, more moderate gasoline and electricity price adjustments, and the elimination of national long - distance phone charges. in fact, january first - half inflation was 3. 1 percent