, like a number of other central banks, uses one of these models for forecasts and simulations. the riksbank ’ s model is called ramses ( riksbank ’ s aggregate macromodel for studies of the economy in sweden ). in ramses, goods and labour markets are assumed to be in monopolistic competition and wages and prices are sticky. however, the ramses model analysis is only part of the forecasting process, which is also based on other statistical analyses and of course assessments. in the short term, that is to say the current quarter and one quarter ahead – what is usually called “ now - casting ” – we use different statistical models and indicators to make an assessment of the current situation. this analysis strives for the best possible accuracy in the forecasts and is often only vaguely anchored in economic theory. however, this type of forecast has a relatively good accuracy in the short term ( up to one year ahead ). 6 the forecast produced by the now - casting is then entered into the large dsge model and forms a basis for the model ’ s longer - term forecasts. the international forecast for all quarters is then also made outside of ramses and entered as input into the model. as all models are simplifications of reality, however, the final analysis must always contain elements of assessment that correct the results from the model. in addition, some markets, for instance, the financial markets, are not entirely reflected in these models. 7 the latter play an important role in the current stage, which is affected substantially by the financial turbulence. general equilibrium models are an important analysis tool as they provide a consistent picture of the economy. they can therefore also be used for policy analysis and to analyse alternative scenarios. f. e. kydland and e. c. prescott “ time to build and aggregate fluctuations ”, econometrica 50, 1982, 13451370. o. j. blanchard, “ the state of macro ”, nber working paper series, august 2008. see m. k. andersson and m. lof. sveriges riksbank economic review 2007 : 1. c. e. tovar. “ dsge models and central banks ”. bis working papers no 258. 2008. some facts about economic cycles according to economic theory, fluctuations in growth thus arise as a result of various external shocks affecting the economy. the size of the fluctuations is in turn affected by the functioning of the economy.

##ical of the new family enter into circulation as from july 1st, 2006. today, we are announcing the publication of the features and the facial value of the notes and coins of the metical of the new family. the purpose of this ceremony is to announce the beginning of the process aiming at familiarizing the public with the new notes and coins, particularly in relation to minimum security features in order to facilitate the transactions as from july 1st, 2006. as we have been informing, the entry into circulation of the notes and coins of the metical of the new family will not imply immediate withdrawal of notes and coins currently in circulation. the simultaneous circulation of notes and coins currently in circulation and the notes and coins of the metical of the new family starts on july 1st, 2006, and will last for six months. during the period of simultaneous circulation, there will be a process of gradual introduction of the metical of the new family. therefore, there will not be any exchange posts. the notes and coins of the metical of the new family will be obtained normally in the course of commercial and banking transactions. july 1st, 2006 only marks the beginning of the circulation of the metical of the new family and the beginning of conversion operations. therefore, our behaviour should be equal to that we have shown when an introduction of new facial values of our currency takes place. payments using either notes and coins of the metical currently in circulation as well as those of the metical of the new family can be made until december 31st, 2006, and the change received either in one family of the metical or in the other. as from january 1st, 2007, the notes and coins of the metical currently in circulation, which could still be held by the public, may be changed to notes and coins of the metical of the new family at the banking institutions until december 31st, 2007, and at the banco de mocambique until december 31st, 2012. the effective conversion will occur on july 1st, 2006. this means that all banking accounts and the prices of goods and services expressed in meticais will be converted to the metical of the new family. for this purpose, i would like to stress the following aspects established under decree nº 55 / 2005, of december 27th : • in order to adjust the accounting procedures to the conversion process, within the 2006 financial year, we will have two accounting reports : the first ( reported to june 30th, 2006 ) should be in the metical currently