is also dependent on the growth outlook in asia in general and china in particular. global growth has implications for our own monetary policy through a number of channels. higher global growth may, in the absence of productivity growth, result in either higher world inflation or tighter monetary policies in high growth economies. at the same time, strong world growth is generally positive for commodity prices, which may cause the rand to be stronger. often the implications of world growth developments for monetary policy are far from clear, and this underlines the uncertainties we face. 3. global imbalances although the world economy may have achieved a degree of immunity from cyclical downturns in the united states, it is probably still true to say that if the us had to catch a cold, the rest of the world would run the risk of catching a bad case of flu. the possible disorderly unwinding of global imbalances is a case in point. the main manifestations of the global imbalances are the current account deficit in the united states and the current account surpluses in a number of asian economies and the oil exporting economies. the dominant view in the market appears to be that it is not a question of if, but rather when and how the adjustment will take place. as i noted earlier, the imf view is that although there is a risk of a disorderly adjustment, a smooth market - led adjustment is the most likely outcome. by contrast, in the 2005 annual report of the bank for international settlements it was noted that the unwinding of the imbalances could be uncomfortable, either through profound market turbulence or a protracted period of slow world growth. a number of solutions to the problem of global imbalances have been proposed. in his keynote address to the recent conference on macroeconomic challenges that was organised by the bank, professor david llewellyn argued that none of the proposed solutions would be sufficient on their own, and that unless a number of solutions were implemented concurrently, a negative outcome was more likely. in his view, the required adjustment includes increased savings in the us including a reduction in the fiscal deficit ; reduced savings in china, combined with improved social security safety nets in that country ; a move away from the dollar peg by asian economies and a depreciation of the us dollar ; and a rise in aggregate demand in japan and the euro area, accompanied by structural reform in the latter. unfortunately there does not appear to be a co - ordinating mechanism to

recently. private payroll employment ( figure 1 ) increased by nearly 250, 000 jobs per month, on average, in the three months ending in february, and by about 190, 000 jobs per month, on average, over the past 12 months. at the same time, layoffs in the public sector appear to be moderating. together with a lengthening of the average workweek, these employment gains have contributed to a significant increase in aggregate hours worked ( figure 2 ). the increase in hours worked is encouraging, because the decline in hours during the recent recession was extraordinary. from the peak of this series in december 2007 to its trough in february 2010, aggregate hours on the job by production workers fell by a remarkable 9 – 1 / 2 percent ; by comparison, production - worker hours declined by “ only ” 5 – 3 / 4 percent during the severe 1981 – 82 recession. currently, hours worked are still about 4 percent below the pre - recession peak – a clear improvement from where we were two years ago, but still far from where we would like to be. the government estimates payroll employment – the number of jobs – from a survey of businesses – the establishment survey. a monthly survey of about 60, 000 households, which bis central bankers ’ speeches provides the data needed to construct the national unemployment rate, offers an alternative estimate of the number of jobs. employment as estimated from the household survey, adjusted to correspond as closely as possible to the concept of employment measured in the establishment survey ( figure 3 ), also shows an improvement in the labor market – indeed, by somewhat more than in the establishment survey. i should note, however, that month - to - month changes in this measure are much more volatile than the employment measure from the establishment survey, which is why the federal reserve puts more weight on the establishment survey for the purposes of short - term forecasting. the positive signs from the labor market have shown through to measures of labor utilization : after hovering around 9 percent for much of last year, the unemployment rate ( figure 4 ) has moved down since september to 8. 3 percent in february, and the share of employment represented by people working part time for economic reasons, an indicator of underutilization, has declined modestly. surveys of households and firms about their attitudes and expectations offer yet another window on job market developments. since the summer, household expectations for labor market conditions over the next year have gotten brighter ( figure 5 ), unwinding a deterioration registered earlier last year. business