##pates and confidence increases. the weaker economic outlook implies greater and more persistent economic slack than previously anticipated, with the canadian economy now expected to return to full capacity by the end of 2013. as a result, core inflation is expected to be slightly softer than previously expected, declining through 2012 before returning to 2 percent by the end of 2013. bis central bankers ’ speeches the projection for total cpi inflation has also been revised down, reflecting the recent reversal of earlier sharp increases in world energy prices as well as modestly weaker core inflation. total cpi inflation is expected to trough around 1 per cent by the middle of 2012 before rising with core inflation to the two per cent target by the end of 2013, as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed. there are several significant risks to the inflation outlook in canada. the three main upside risks relate to the possibility of stronger - than - expected inflationary pressures in the global economy, stronger momentum in canadian household spending, and the possibility of a faster - than - expected rebound in business and consumer confidence, due to more decisive policy action in the major advanced economies. the three main downside risks relate to sovereign debt and banking concerns in europe, the increased probability of a recession in the u. s. economy, and the possibility that growth in household spending in canada could be weaker than projected. reflecting all of these factors, the bank yesterday maintained the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. with the target interest rate near historic lows and the financial system functioning well, there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in canada. the bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. with that, tiff and i would be pleased to take your questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches

the information to take decisions. without it, evaluation and transformation of the business model will not be possible. against this background of technological change, i would like to refer briefly to the recent announcement of the launch of the “ libra ” project, the virtual currency sponsored by facebook. the reaction by the public sector, supervisors and central banks to this announcement has, to put it mildly, been shrouded in caution. 13 / 15 testifying to this is the letter sent last week by the us authorities to facebook. in its first paragraph, a request – or rather a demand – is made for the implementation of the project to be delayed while its potential consequences are evaluated. the same paragraph indicates that the libra project “ is intended to rival us monetary policy and the dollar ”. i do not think this is an exaggerated reaction, since the irruption of big tech has potentially systemic implications. customer relations i think it is also important to talk about customer relations as another key factor of any future business model. i shall not dwell on this point, the ground for which has been previously covered. but i would like to point out that this change is the only means of responding to the challenge the sector faces to restore its image and reputation. society has changed in terms of its demands of the financial sector. the rules governing customer - bank relations have likewise changed. a good example of this is the recent law on real estate lending. banks should, therefore, change to respond to the new social and regulatory reality. evidently, legal cases from the past continue to weigh on and hamper the restoration of image. but if banks change their behaviour today they will be laying the foundations on which to build the industry ’ s future reputation. in this respect, last year we saw a decline in claims lodged against banks. according to the banco de espana 2018 annual claims report, published last wednesday, the number of claims processed by the bank last year fell by more than 50 % on 2017 to close to 19, 700. 1 nonetheless, the total percentage of rectifications by banks relative to those estimated by the banco de espana was 70. 6 %, a similar percentage to that of 2017. in any event it should be borne in mind that, since 2013, the annual claims figures have shown strong year - to - year oscillations, generally linked to the impact of specific legal rulings. 14 / 15 business model evidently, banks should analyse their current business models with a view to assessing