anywhere between 2. 0 and 3. 4 percent this year as the pandemic disrupts a wide range of industries. but by next year, we expect a strong bounce - back with a growth of 8. 0 to 9. 0 percent. on inflation, bsp estimates for this year up to 2022 show that it will stay within the target range of 2. 0 to 4. 0 percent, thus providing an enabling environment for businesses to recover. on external accounts, latest bsp estimates show that our overall balance of payments position ( bop ) will stay in surplus this year in the amount of us $ 0. 6 billion, equivalent to 0. 2 percent of gdp, and then increase to us $ 2. 4 billion next year, equivalent to 0. 6 percent of gdp. our gross international reserves ( gir ) are projected to settle at us $ 95 billion by the end of this year. this will be the highest year - end figure on record and will provide 8. 5 months ’ worth of import cover. foreign direct investments ( fdis ) are expected to still post net inflows this year in the amount of us $ 4. 1 billion, and then increase to us $ 6. 5 billion next year. foreign portfolio investments are also seen to continue posting net inflows in the amount of us $ 2. 4 billion this year and us $ 3. 4 billion next year. remittances, which support consumption of many filipino households, are expected to contract by 5. 0 percent this year as the covid - 19 crisis forces layoffs in host economies. but by next year, we expect remittances to rebound to a growth of 4. 0 percent as economic activities in various parts of the world gradually recover. the high quality of labor that filipinos provide make them highly in - demand across the globe, and so the contraction in remittances forced by the pandemic is expected to be short - lived. on the banking sector, our banks remain strong and stable, and they continue to play a significant role in cushioning the impact of headwinds and fuelling economic growth for the philippines. banks are able to keep credit growing in support of consumption and production activities — all the while keeping their bad debts low and capitalization levels high. our financial and economic resilience has been recognized and affirmed by several external organizations. the most recent was moody ’ s investor services affirming the philippines ’ credit rating of “

baa2 ” with a “ stable ” outlook on july 16, 2020. in june, japan credit rating agency upgraded our credit rating to a - from bbb +. earlier, s & p and fitch have affirmed their rating of bbb + and bbb, respectively. 5 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches the prestigious publication, the economist, also acknowledged the philippines ’ relatively strong financial strength based on four metrics, namely public debt, foreign debt, cost of borrowing, and reserve cover. it assessed the philippines as the 6th best among 66 emerging economies, and number one among its southeast asian peers. this slide shows the rating actions of the three global credit rating agencies – fitch, moody ’ s, and s & p. as of 30 june 2020, 39 countries have been downgraded while there had been 101 negative outlook revisions. viewed in this light, moody ’ s confirmation of the philippines ’ credit rating of “ baa2 ” with a “ stable ” outlook should be seen as a resounding vote of confidence for the country. the bsp reiterates its commitment to use its entire arsenal of policy tools and instruments in a timely and prudent manner to help cushion the economy from the potential fallout. the relatively benign inflation outlook in the policy horizon provides space for monetary policy adjustments to complement the national government ’ s efforts in mitigating the adverse impact of the public health crisis. the pandemic highlighted the need to expand the reach of digital payments. efficiency in retail payments is really about speed, convenience and affordability, which can clearly be supported by a shift to electronic payments. thus, a key outcome of the national retail payment system is to increase adoption of electronic retail payments to 50 percent by 2023, if not sooner. the bsp envisions an accelerated uptake of e - payment services, through digital platforms like the instapay and pesonet, in the next three years. we have gained significant strides in this direction through the adoption of the national qr code standard, as well as the use of online payment facilities for government transactions. we have gained significant strides in this direction through the adoption of the national qr code standard as well as the use of online payment facilities for government transactions. on the legislative front, the bsp will push for the passage of the following priority bills : • amendment to republic act nos. 1405 and 6426, the laws pertaining to the secrecy of bank deposits ; • amendment to republic