cpiefe inflation ( 1 ) ( percent ) ( annual change, percent ) cpi 2. 5 cpiefe 2. 5 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 1. 5 4. 5 4. 0 4. 0 3. 5 1. 0 1. 0 4. 5 3. 0 3. 0 2. 5 2. 5 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 0 basket basket basket basket 1. 5 cpiefe 1. 0 0. 0 3. 5 cpi 1. 0 0. 5 0. 5 0. 0 0. 0 abr. jul. oct. ( 1 ) as from january 2019 the lines use the new indexes with annual base 2018 = 100, so they are not strictly comparable with earler figures. blue ( red ) diamonds show the annual cpi ( cpiefe ) variation using the 2013 = 100 basket. as from february 2018, they show the annual change that is obtained by splicing the 2013 = 100 basket series with the monthly variations in the 2018 = 100 basket. sources : central bank of chile and national statistics institute ( ine ). source : national statistics institute ( ine ). figure 2 exchange rate and goods efe ( annual change, percent ) tcn ( right axis ) goods efe ( * ) - 1 - 5 - 2 - 10 - 3 - 15 jul. jul. 17 jul. 18 19 19 ( * ) as from january 2019 the line uses the new indexes with 2018 = 100 annual base, so they are not strictly comparable with past figures. sources : central bank of chile and national statistics institute ( ine ). figure 3 selected cpi prices ( indexes, january 2018 = 100 ) mobile phone services telecom package services 101 105 100 100 new cars air transport services 110 160 - - - - 2013 basket - - - - 2018 basket source : national statistics institute ( ine ). figure 4 immigration chile's population ( * ) ( thousands of persons ) ( millions of persons ) 20. 5 20. 5 20. 0 19. 5 19. 0 18. 5 18. 5 18. 0 18. 0 17. 5 19. 5 19. 0 17. 5 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 20. 0 ( * ) population estimates and forecasts using each census. for 2002 the updated figures published in 2014 are used. source : national statistics institute ( ine ). figure 5 annual gdp growth domestic demand ( contribution, percentage

to grow 3. 3 % and 3. 4 % in 2019 and 2020, identical to the latest figures published by consensus forecasts and a little below the imf ’ s january projections ( figure 10 ). turning to the terms of trade, most commodities increased their prices after the december report. in the baseline scenario, prices for copper and oil are expected to be somewhat higher than predicted in december. a copper price of $ 2. 9 per pound is forecast for this year and the next two, which compares with the prices of $ 2. 85 and $ 2. 80 per pound that we assumed in december for 2019 and 2020, respectively. in the case of oil, average brent - wti average prices are expected of $ 62 per barrel in 2019 and 2020 ( 59 dollars for both years, in december ) and $ 60 in 2021. with this, and the revisions to the historical numbers, the terms of trade should increase this year by a higher rate than we thought in december, but in terms of levels, they will be similar ( figure 11 ). v. 2019 – 2021 outlook our baseline projection assumes that the boost that the chilean economy will receive from abroad in the next two years will be milder than it was in the last two. it will be still be positive, however, combining the downward adjustment of world growth and somewhat more favorable financial conditions than were foreseen in december. at home, the recent evolution of demand and prospects for consumption and investment continue to indicate that the economy will narrow its capacity gaps further over the coming quarters. about the magnitude of these gaps, however, the mix between lower headline inflation and strong nonmining gdp imply that they will exceed previous projections, which, as has been noted, is consistent with the expansion of the labor force coming from massive immigration, among other factors. in order to tone down uncertainties about the values of this and other structural parameters used in the calibration of monetary policy, the board has decided to update these estimates in the monetary policy report next june. v. 1. activity in our baseline scenario, we expect the chilean economy to grow between 3 % and 4 % in 2019. this range runs somewhat below our december forecast ( 3. 25 % to 4. 25 % ), due to a poor - than - expected mining performance which, as i just mentioned, is clearly noticeable in the figures early this year. for 2020, we foresee that the economy will grow between 3 % and 4 %, a