, or even exceeding the target range, on a sustained basis. the sarb ’ s forecast for gdp growth for 2018 was revised down from 1. 7 % to 1. 2 %, while the forecasts for both 2019 and 2020 were slightly higher at 1. 9 % and 2. 0 % respectively. following the broad - based contraction of 2. 2 % in the first quarter of 2018, indications based on high frequency data suggest continued sluggish performance of the economy in the second quarter, but with a likelihood that a technical recession will be avoided. as indicated previously, with south africa having no fiscal space and monetary policy similarly currently not being able to provide further stimulus, the attention needs to firmly shift towards fully restoring confidence and urgent implementation of structural reforms to help lift the potential rate of growth of the south african economy. page 11 of 12 conclusion let me conclude by reiterating the remarks made by robert shiller of yale university on the subject of the fourth industrial revolution : “ you cannot wait until a house burns down to buy fire insurance on it. we cannot wait until there are massive dislocations in our society to prepare for the fourth industrial revolution. ” indeed, it is up to us whether we succeed in the fourth industrial revolution – whether it will be a time of great promise or a time of great peril, both for the continent and for our country. new technologies will transform the world we live in. the exponential speed and scope of this transformation brings with it the potential for unlimited possibilities and endless opportunities, but also massive challenges. educational institutions need to understand the implications of the fourth industrial revolution in order to better prepare their students for this new future. our fate is in our hands. we cannot afford to be left behind, and institutions such as the university of zululand have an important role to play in ensuring that we are not left behind. thank you for your attention. page 12 of 12

speech by daniel mminele, deputy governor of the south african reserve bank, at the university of zululand, mbali international conference richard ’ s bay 1 august 2018 the fourth industrial revolution and the future of work : some implications for central banking introduction good morning, ladies and gentlemen. i would like to start by thanking the university of zululand for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you on an issue which will invariably have an impact on all of our lives, namely ‘ the fourth industrial revolution and the future of work ’. policymakers ( including fiscal and monetary authorities ), business entities and academic institutions all around the world are grappling with the implications of the fourth industrial revolution and what this means for the future of work. this issue also formed part of the theme of the 10th brics1 summit that was concluded in johannesburg last week. indeed, this topic is also relevant for an institution such as yours, as education is the key to unlocking benefits and avoiding the potential negative repercussions. machines are developing at a rapid speed and their application is becoming increasingly sophisticated, which undoubtedly has massive implications for education and the skills set required for moving successfully into the future. the future requires not only a 1 brazil, russia, india, china, south africa page 1 of 12 different skills set, but also a different way of learning, a commitment to lifelong development, with young people at the coalface of this change. against this brief background, i would like to share with you a few thoughts about how the future of work is changing the world of work, and some initiatives of international organisations such as the g202 in this regard. i would also like to explore some of the implications for central banking. what is ‘ the future of work ’, and how is it changing the world of work? one could argue that a country ’ s experience of the fourth industrial revolution depends on certain socio - and macroeconomic fundamentals, such as the level of its development and the skills set of its labour force, among other things. but this does not change the fact that preparedness is essential. for many emerging markets, structural impediments have hindered development to such an extent that artificial intelligence is not an immediate possibility, and the adaptation of new technology to local conditions in these economies is therefore likely to be slower. nonetheless, adaptation is inevitable. there appears to be a great deal of emphasis on the fourth industrial revolution currently taking place, perhaps more so than was the case with