from the consensus forecasts up through 2014 / q2 are linearly interpolated. figures for the bank ’ s opinion survey on general public ’ s views and behavior exclude inflation expectations by respondents whose annual inflation expectations were ±5 % or greater. the output prices di in the tankan represents the difference between the share of firms that raised prices in the preceding three months and the share of firms that lowered prices. 3. in the right - hand graph, inflation expectations of firms are taken from the tankan and those of households are taken from the bank ’ s opinion survey. for experts ’ and markets ’ inflation expectations, data from the consensus forecasts, the quick survey, and the inflation swap rate are used as indicated by their respective lines. sources : ministry of internal affairs and communications, ” consumer price index ” ; consensus economics inc., “ consensus forecasts ” ; quick, " quick monthly market survey ( bonds ) " ; bloomberg ; bank of japan. strengthening the framework for continuous powerful monetary easing chart 8 ( 1 ) yield curve control short - term rate : minus 0. 1 % long - term rate : around 0 % short - term rate : minus 0. 1 % long - term rate : around 0 %. the yields may move upward and downward to some extent depending mainly on developments in economic activity and prices. ( 2 ) asset purchases ( target amount of net purchases ) etfs : 6 tril. yen per year j - reits : 90 bil. yen per year etfs : 6 tril. yen per year j - reits : 90 bil. yen per year the bank may increase or decrease the amount of purchases depending on market conditions. ( 3 ) commitment ( future monetary policy commitment ) inflation - overshooting commitment “ the bank will continue expanding the monetary base until the year - on - year rate of increase in the observed cpi ( all items less fresh food ) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner. ” inflation - overshooting commitment forward guidance for policy rates “ the bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short - and longterm interest rates for an extended period of time. ” chart 9 inflation momentum ( measured by 2 percent - passage probability ) 0. 9 0. 9 0. 8 0. 8 0. 7 0. 7 0. 6 0. 6 0. 5 0. 5 0. 4 0. 4 0. 3 0. 3 0. 2 0. 2 0.

. amid relatively weak inflation rates, inflation expectations are likely to remain somewhat weak through the adaptive formation mechanism. therefore, i believe there is little likelihood of the momentum increasing under the current policy. another way to assess the momentum in inflation is the pace at which price rises will lead to achievement of the price stability target of 2 percent. chart 9 shows a statistical estimate of the probability of japan's inflation rate reaching 2 percent within two years. 2 based on the assumption that the average of the changes in the monthly inflation rate over the past year will continue, the 2 percent - passage probability has declined since may 2018. this suggests that the momentum in inflation has weakened somewhat. moreover, the 2 percent - passage probability calculated using the cpi for all items less fresh food and energy has been almost 0 percent since mid - 2016, indicating that the momentum over the past year or so was mostly attributable to energy prices. in other words, it is possible to conclude that, under the current monetary policy, the momentum in inflation has not strengthened enough to achieve the price stability target as soon as possible. second, i believe that it is unnecessary for the bank to conduct policy changes so as to allow some degree of fluctuation in the long - term yields, at a time when the cpi forecasts of the policy board members have been revised downward. personally, i am concerned about this policy change, in that it is possible that the long - term interest rate target level of around 0 percent will gradually lose significance if expectations of a rise in long - term yields heighten in financial markets. the timing of achieving the price stability target may be delayed if interest rates rise, whether temporarily or not, in a situation where inflation expectations and prices have not risen sufficiently. furthermore, one advantage of yield - curve control is that it strengthens the monetary easing effects by maintaining long - term interest rates at around 0 percent when they are subject to upward pressure ; however, controlling long - term yields in a flexible manner is thought to weaken such effects. third, as for the bank's commitment regarding future monetary policy changes and forward guidance for policy rates, my view is that, taking into account the current situation in which the observed inflation rate is still evidently far from the 2 percent price stability target, it is important for the bank to make clear the influence of its monetary policy on prices and to show its strong determination to achieve the price stability target. it is true that enforcing the bank's commitment is desirable,