parameters of the balance of payments. we proceed from the fact that the global economy will be bouncing back faster than we expected in february. this will be driven by a large - scale fiscal stimulus in advanced economies and the mass vaccination of people worldwide. the growth of the global economy will boost the demand for russian exports. taking into account this factor and the slower recovery of oil production under the opec + agreements, we have raised our forecast for oil prices from 50 to 60 us dollars per barrel this year and to 55 us dollars per barrel next year. the forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at 50 us dollars per barrel. accordingly, we have also increased the forecasts for exports and the trade surplus. as domestic demand has been expanding, we have revised the imports forecast upwards. the current account surplus will grow to 56 billion us dollars this year from 34 billion us dollars last year. now, i would like to discuss in detail risks that are beyond our baseline forecast. proinflationary risks are primarily associated with increased inflation expectations. as inflationary pressure is stronger and supply - side factors exert additional influence on price growth, inflation expectations may stay elevated for longer time. consequently, the saving ratio may decline faster, with consumer activity rising above expectations. as always, there are risks related to the external sector, including changes in the geopolitical environment. we have always taken them into account. in a situation where these risks materialise, an increase in volatility in financial markets may speed up inflation, which we factor in when making our decisions. there are also disinflationary risks, yet the probability of their materialisation is lower and they are mostly associated with the fact that demand growth may turn out to be below our expectations. this group of risks may also include a faster reopening of borders, as a result of which demand may shift from domestic consumption to foreign travels. the risk of new coronavirus strains or lower paces of vaccination persists, which, in contrast, may reduce people ’ s mobility and limit consumption growth, especially in the services sector. if the situation develops not in line with our baseline scenario, we will be responding so as to bring inflation back close to its 4 % target over the forecast horizon. winding up, i would like to comment on the future path of the key rate. today, we have first published the ranges of the average bank of russia key rate for a calendar year over the forecast horizon. according to our

government debt is good or bad, as i have already mentioned, is a sham question to a certain extent. another sham question is a choice between the financial stability and economic growth. both the central bank and the ministry of finance are being quite often criticised for focusing monetary and fiscal policies respectively on the problem of financial stability to the detriment of economic growth. in actual fact, economic growth is impossible without financial stability. while a stable budget is the basis of financial stability. it is possible to stake money, including government one, at the microlevel, at the level of small specific projects. to take risks at the macrolevel means to endanger economic growth and social stability. bis central bankers ’ speeches an important question is how to finance the deficit : through reserves or through debt? strictly speaking, both options lead to growth in net debt ( net of reserves ) and consequently to debt burden accumulation. that is why this choice is also a sham one to a large extent. nevertheless, since the commodity market risks are high, we believe that today the priority should be given to debt financing and keeping reserves for more complicated scenarios, when the access to debt financing is even more difficult. moreover, no doubt that the available reserves serve as an insurance from the market point of view and make the access to debt financing somewhat easier. in conclusion i would like to say a few words about how to reach the path of strong economic growth amid tough monetary and fiscal policies and prudent build - up of government debt. the matter is the structure of budget expenditure, rather than its volume, and the use of structural reform potential. the external conditions push the economy towards structural changes and balanced structural reforms may accelerate this process and make it less painful. the emphasis should be put on those industries, which turned out to be competitive in the current situation without government support. only they could become an efficient engine of development amid new reality. as it often happens, the best way to help businesses in the current conditions is not to interfere. the deficit resources of government support should be concentrated on assistance to the most vulnerable population groups, as well as on the development of infrastructure and human capital. bis central bankers ’ speeches