. 8 we are seeing the effects already. june trade data showed steel exports fell the most since 2008, with little movement in july. moreover, the value of consumer goods subject to a 10 - per cent import tariff fell almost 23 per cent in july, following a run - up in the previous months. regarding inflation, we estimated that canada ’ s countermeasures would temporarily boost inflation by about 0. 1 percentage point until the third quarter of 2019. the most recent inflation report from statistics canada showed no impact from the tariffs on prices to date. still, some beer and pop manufacturers have announced plans to raise prices in response to the rising cost of aluminum cans. the outlook for growth and inflation in canada is also affected by tariff disputes between big players such as the united states and china. these disputes can cause shifts in global markets that affect the prices of many of the commodities we produce. reflecting this, the prices of base metals and some agricultural products have softened. saskatchewan was among the provinces to experience this effect earlier in the summer. it is important to recognize that the challenges facing canadian exporters are not only about nafta and tariffs. concerns about weak business investment, firms see k. charbonneau and a. landry, “ estimating the impacts of tariff changes : two illustrative scenarios, ” bank of canada staff analytical note no. 2018 - 29 ( september 2018 ). this estimate includes the impact of tariffs previously imposed by the united states on canadian softwood lumber and newsprint as well as the new tariffs on steel and aluminum. table 4 of the july mpr provides details on these tariffs. although the us international trade commission recently overturned the newsprint tariffs, this is not expected to meaningfully change the estimate from the july mpr. - 6building new capacity outside our borders, and declining market shares existed long before the current trade tensions emerged. competitiveness issues have been hampering canadian businesses for some time, even while foreign demand has been growing. market share in the united states for canada ’ s non - energy goods has, in fact, been declining over the past 15 years. 9 the effect has been particularly acute in the manufacturing sector. this trend has meant a much lower share of employment for most manufacturing industries, including automotive and parts and clothing. regardless of what transpires on the trade policy front, the bank will still need to better understand the competitiveness issues to assess the extent to which canada has permanently lost market share and export capacity

. 10 yesterday ’ s decision let me now turn to governing council ’ s policy deliberations that led to yesterday ’ s decision. it will not surprise you to hear that the implications of the current trade environment were front and centre. as i just outlined, we have already incorporated into our forecast the expected negative effects of uncertainty on business investment and exports, as well as the effects of us tariffs and canadian countermeasures imposed so far. these estimates are highly uncertain and may need to be adjusted as we get more information about the nafta negotiations and how businesses are adjusting their plans. our practice is to not incorporate scenarios that have yet to occur, even though they may be the subject of ongoing discussions. that said, the risks to growth related to trade policies are not just on the downside, particularly in light of the ongoing negotiations. there is some significant upside as well. nonetheless, it is important to understand that certain trade developments can result in complex trade - offs for monetary policy. on the one hand, protectionist measures can be costly in terms of growth and incomes, particularly as businesses and people adjust. a recent study by the bank for international settlements ( bis ) shows how virtually all regions in canada, mexico and the united states could expect lower real wages if these countries reverted from nafta to world trade organization tariff rates. 11 on the other hand, protectionist measures create risks to the upside for inflation, especially when the economy is operating near full capacity. in weighing these for more details, see n. labelle st - pierre, “ decomposing canada ’ s market shares : an update, ” bank of canada staff analytical note no. 2018 - 26 ( august 2018 ) ; and d. brouillette, j. dorich, c. d ’ souza, a. gagnon and c. godbout, “ what is restraining non - energy export growth? ” bank of canada staff analytical note no. 2018 - 25 ( august 2018 ). see t. webley, “ characterizing canada ’ s export sector by industry : a supply - side perspective, ” bank of canada staff analytical note no. 2018 - 27 ( august 2018 ). see r. auer, b. bonadio and a. levchenko. “ the economics of revoking nafta, ” bis working papers no. 739 ( august 2018 ). - 7trade - offs, you can be sure that governing council will not lose sight of our