speech at the presentation of the annual financial stability report for 2017 dr jorgovanka tabakovic, governor belgrade, 30 july 2018 ladies and gentlemen, members of the press and dear colleagues, welcome to the presentation of the annual financial stability report for 2017. today we have the pleasure to present a report about a year marked by exceptionally positive developments, in serbia and the international environment alike, as well as by the results we have achieved. owing to this, financial stability has not only been maintained, but also reinforced, which is reflected in a financial system that is to a large degree resilient to any potential future shocks. global economic growth stepped up in 2017, which reflected positively on the growth prospects of central, eastern and south - eastern european countries and pushed their risk premiums down. on the other hand, risks in the international commodity and financial markets persisted, primarily those associated with volatile movements in global oil prices and divergent monetary policies of the ecb and fed. thanks to improved structural characteristics and favourable growth prospects, coupled with the enactment of well - timed measures and regulations and full coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, serbia is now more resilient to potentially adverse effects from the international environment. this was confirmed in 2017 by credit rating upgrades by all three rating agencies, successful completion of the three - year stand - by arrangement with the international monetary fund and a decline in the country risk premium to its historic low. the national bank of serbia remained cautious in the conduct of monetary policy in 2017 due to uncertainties in the international financial and commodity markets. as inflationary pressures were running low, the key policy rate was cut by 0. 25 pp on two occasions, feeding through into lower cost of borrowing for the government, corporate and household sectors. favourable interest rates are one of the key drivers of credit growth, which means that by easing its monetary policy the national bank of serbia encouraged the increase in investment and private consumption and supported sustainable economic growth. in 2017 the national bank of serbia achieved its key objectives – it ensured monetary and financial stability. throughout the year inflation was low and stable, moving within the new target band, which was lowered from 4 % ±1. 5 pp to 3 % ±1. 5 pp as of early 2017. the fact that inflation stood at the 3. 0 % target in december only confirms that the decision to lower the inflation target was correct. at the same time, inflation expectations of the financial and corporate sectors have been anchored within the target band for quite

james mcandrews : credit growth and economic activity after the great recession remarks by mr james mcandrews, executive vice president and director of research of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the economic press briefing on student loans, federal reserve bank of new york, new york city, 16 february 2015. * * * accompanying tables and figures can be found at the end of the speech. good morning and let me welcome you to our press briefing focusing on developments in the student loan market. my remarks will concentrate on the role of credit markets more generally during this economic expansion. as a reminder, these remarks reflect my own views, and not those of the federal reserve bank of new york or of the federal reserve system. first, let me say a few words on the current economic outlook. real gdp grew 2. 4 percent over the course of 2014. as new york fed president dudley noted earlier this month, despite what appears to be a soft first quarter, we expect that real gdp growth will continue over the next couple of years at a similar rate, supported by solid underlying fundamentals and accommodative financial conditions. unemployment should continue to decline and approach 5 percent by late this year. because of the recent sharp fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar, inflation will be very low over the coming months. however, as these temporary factors dissipate, economic slack declines further and inflation expectations remain stable, inflation should slowly move up toward the federal open market committee ’ s longer - run objective of 2 percent. using data from the national income and product accounts, this expansion so far has exhibited unusual features compared to previous long expansions. most notably, the pace of growth during the early years of this expansion was well below that of the early years in previous long cycles ( table 1 ). among the factors for the slower growth were unusually low contributions from residential investment and from nondurables and services consumption. in contrast, the contribution from durables consumption, particularly for motor vehicles, was similar to that observed in previous expansions. even though real gdp growth has picked up some in the past two years, these patterns are still evident ( table 2 ). the slow growth during the current expansion, what we might call the long shallow recovery, is likely a result of a confluence of many factors including constrained monetary and fiscal policies, demographic factors and economic and financial developments abroad. today, i ’ d like to consider developments in credit markets in the context of this