. the cpix excludes the effects of indirect taxes, subsidies and mortgage costs from the cpi. the cpif excludes the direct effects on the cpi of changes in mortgage rates. the average cpix / cpif inflation is 0. 4 percentage points lower than the target when measured using real - time data for the period 1997 – 2011. bis central bankers ’ speeches but if inflation expectations are anchored to the target at the same time as average inflation is deviating from the target, this means that the long - run phillips curve is no longer vertical, but sloping downwards. this relationship is supported by data and shown in figure 3. the red circles show the outcome for unemployment and the gap between cpi inflation and the target of 2 per cent from the first quarter of 1998 and up to the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. the black line is an estimated long - run phillips curve. if the average inflation rate would deviate substantially from the target, it is hardly likely that inflation expectations would still remain anchored to the target. the estimated long - run phillips curve is therefore reasonably only relevant in moderate deviations from the target. it is thus marked as a dashed line for average inflation that deviates more than 1 percentage point from the target. that the long - run phillips curve is no longer vertical for inflation expectations anchored to the target has been noted for the united states in the period 2000 – 2011 by jeffrey fuhrer ( 2011 ) at the federal reserve bank of boston. bis central bankers ’ speeches higher average unemployment when average inflation undershoots the target the right - hand square on the long - run phillips curve in figure 3 shows an average inflation rate that is 0. 6 percentage points below the target, which thus corresponds to the deviation in sweden during the period 1997 – 2011. this deviation gives an average unemployment rate of 7. 3 per cent. the left - hand square corresponds to an average inflation that is on target, at 2 per cent, which gives an average unemployment rate of 6. 5 per cent. the difference between these figures is thus 0. 8 percentage points. for sweden it thus appears that an average inflation rate 0. 6 percentage points below the target has led to an 0. 8 percentage points higher average unemployment rate over the past 15 years than would have been the case if average inflation has been on target. 16 this estimate appears fairly robust for various assumptions. if one, for example, uses cpix and cpif inflation ( which on average have undershot the target by

lars nyberg : the securities market today and tomorrow speech by mr lars nyberg, deputy governor of the sveriges riksbank, at a conference organised by dataforeningen, stockholm, 10 november 2004. * * * first, thank you for inviting me to speak at this conference about the swedish securities market today and tomorrow. securities markets are of course a significant part of a modern economy and fulfil several important functions, which include mediating information, supplying capital and acting as a channel for risk management. they also undergo an almost continuous process of change, which offers new challenges to operators in the financial sector as well as to public authorities. it is therefore particularly exciting - and important - to be able to discuss these developments here today. developments in the securities markets in recent years have been dramatic in many respects. for instance, we have experienced an intensive stock market upturn, followed by one of the largest crashes in modern times. it shares went from being unbeatable profit - makers according to tabloid headlines to being worth only a fraction of what was promised. however, i am not here to discuss earnings, although the bubble phenomenon is an interesting subject in itself. today i intend to concentrate mainly on structural change processes. we have relatively recently witnessed some tendencies to increased integration in trading in financial instruments. this includes the closer linking of the stock markets in stockholm, helsinki, tallinn and riga through the establishment of omx and - prior to this - the stock markets in amsterdam, brussels, lisbon and paris through euronext. an example of far - reaching integration in the clearing and settlement of securities transactions is euroclear. the agreement on a merger of the swedish and finnish central securities depositories is another example of tendencies towards integration in the securities market. understanding developments in the securities markets and what these in turn mean for the future requires an understanding of the economic driving forces behind them. today i shall discuss some long - term trends that i consider of particular importance. these include changes in the population structure, the demography ; technological developments ; internationalisation ; changes in ownership structure and - as i mentioned at the beginning - changes in what we usually refer to as the financial infrastructure. this refers to the financial markets'railways and bridges ; all of the systems that enable financial transactions to be made and the data regarding them to be transported as efficiently as possible, for instance, stock markets, clearing and settlement systems. in addition to these economic driving forces, regulations play an important role for