their ccyb frameworks in this direction. at the ecb, we strongly support this positive neutral cyclical buffer approach. with this characterisation of the conjunctural situation, let me offer a few specific reflections on how research can support policy - making in the face of current challenges. the first concerns macroprudential capital buffer releases. deciding the appropriate timing for the release of accumulated macroprudential buffers is challenging. in our view, this decision should be linked to clear constraints in the supply of bank credit due to banks'capital positions. while research so far has focused on broader macrofinancial signals for capital releases, i see scope to complement this work with analyses of conditions and banks'behaviour that would justify releases. this would surely help making capital releases more effective in reducing the pro - cyclical effects of bank credit in periods of economic distress. the second reflection concerns positive neutral capital buffers. as i have mentioned, this approach is increasingly being used across countries, including those in the banking union. models to assess the overall benefits of the positive neutral versus a purely risk - based buffer framework could be very useful in substantiating policy makers'support for this approach. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches finally, so far, i focussed on macroprudential capital. but this year reminded us that also liquidity issues can become quickly systemic. on the one hand, we saw shocks to market liquidity in the united kingdom last autumn, when price falls in core government bond markets led to forced selling by non - bank financial intermediaries, and risked becoming self - reinforcing. on the other hand, earlier this year we saw shocks to funding liquidity, where deposit redemptions at an unparalleled speed led to the largest ever bank failures in the united states, and the abrupt merger of a global systemically important swiss bank following liquidity outflows. these episodes are a stark reminder that more efforts are needed to understand and mitigate systemic liquidity risks. increased digitalisation and use of social media may at some point require a review of the design of microprudential liquidity standards for banks, such as the liquidity coverage ratio. more importantly, the gradual and systemwide decline in liquidity implies that a macroprudential perspective on liquidity will become more relevant going forward. in principle, the existing regulation already provides some scope to introduce liquidity measures for systemic liquidity risk for banks.

luis de guindos : macroprudential policy and research - learning from challenging times dinner speech by mr luis de guindos, vice - president of the european central bank, at the european central bank fifth macroprudential policy and research conference, jointly organised with the international monetary fund, frankfurt am main, 17 october 2023. * * * it is with great pleasure that we host the fifth ecb macroprudential policy and research conference, the first one to be held in person since the beginning of the pandemic. this conference aims to preserve close ties between the research community, practitioners and policymakers in the macroprudential policy field which, especially in the euro area, is still relatively young. from my point of view, the macro - financial challenges we are currently facing certainly provide a strong motivation to further strengthen the ties between research and policy. let me highlight some of the challenges that lie ahead from a macroprudential perspective and point to some areas where i believe research could support policymaking in the current environment. economic activity remains subdued and is expected to stagnate until year end with risks tilted to the downside. inflation is declining but is expected to continue being clearly above our definition of price stability. over the past 14 months, we have raised our policy rate at an unprecedented pace, by a cumulative 450 basis points, and significantly reduced the size of the ecb's balance sheet, leading to tighter financing conditions. in this context, the euro area financial stability outlook is fragile, as the financial system adapts to a higher interest rate environment. real estate markets are in a downturn, a severe one for commercial real estate. so far, most firms and households have not endured material stress, although it will take some time before the full impact of higher borrowing costs, high inflation and weak growth is felt. on the positive side, bank capital positions in the euro area are sound and the results of the stress test carried out by the ecb in 2023 confirm that the euro area banking system could withstand a severe adverse scenario. experience tells us, however, that banks might be unwilling to use regulatory capital buffers to absorb losses, opting instead for de - leveraging to preserve capital ratios. this is because the use of regulatory buffers comes with limitations, for example, to dividend pay - outs. here is where macroprudential policy comes to the fore. certain macroprudential capital buffers can be released,