gleaned from the current crisis, we need to consider some more basic questions ; questions that will help guide us when positioning indonesia during this era of globalization. for instance, what is the best equilibrium for our economy : between the domestic market and export market, between the financial sector and real sector, between the outward orientation and inward orientation of our financial sector, particularly our banks, between relying on domestic financing or foreign financing. such questions require a fair, thorough and in - depth thought process. it is imperative to answer these questions if we want to develop a more resilient national economy to future turbulence. prospects and challenges in 2009 distinguished guests, allow me to further explain the horizon we face in 2009. one issue that can be considered undeniable is that all countries around the world face an economic downturn. indonesia is no exception. for us, the effects of the crisis began to be felt during the last quarter of 2008. the economic slowdown will be more obvious in 2009, particularly during the first semester. estimations we ran at end of 2008 projected that our domestic economy in 2009 will grow in the range of 4 % - 5 %. certainly not too bad when compared with the projections of many other countries. however, observing the current global trend, the downside risk will increase. in line with efforts to protect economic growth, the key here is how to maximize domestic market potential to bolster domestic economic activities. the foremost element of this policy is to expedite the implementation of a fiscal incentive package and the 2009 national budget. well - controlled inflation as well as government, political party and public expenditure for the upcoming general election, will also help underpin public purchasing power. in addition, certain policies that must be intensified include measures to improve the business climate and reduced domestic business costs. the implementation of such policy should not require any additional funding, however, more focused and determined actions to detangle the knots are necessary. we hope that during this year of the general election, such policies can be continued and even intensified. meanwhile, along with tumbling commodity and fuel prices as well as solid rice production, the interest rate in 2009 is expected to decline, in the range of 5. 0 - 7. 0 %. if current developments persist, however, the lower limit of this range is expected. questions often arise on the prospect of our balance of payments this upcoming year. based on detailed calculations performed at the end of last year, we estimate that the current account will run

, data, and analysis underlying the proposed reforms. of course, this process must also incorporate the opportunity to solicit meaningful public comment. it is absolutely imperative that stakeholders - including bankers - share their views with policymakers on regulatory reform proposals. all of the comments, data, and analysis enable policymakers to make informed decisions throughout the rulemaking and proposal process. information about the intended and unintended impacts of these initiatives is especially informative. if the fed and other banking agencies have not provided sufficient context, data, and analysis to satisfy stakeholder questions or concerns, commenters should provide that perspective as well. as you know, there are a number of regulatory rulemakings under consideration by the board and the other bank regulatory agencies. some have already been published for comment including the proposal to implement basel iii " endgame " by significantly expanding capital requirements and bringing the threshold for compliance down to include all banks over $ 100 billion in assets from only the largest gsib banks, and the expansion of the long - term debt requirement from only the largest banks again to all 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches banks over $ 100 billion in assets. still other proposals have not yet been published or moved to the next stage of the rulemaking process, including the community reinvestment act rulemaking, the further consideration of climate guidance, and others. the board has also publicly indicated it may propose additional revisions in the future to regulation ii. i recognize that in some instances, multiple, interrelated proposals out for comment at the same time may complicate or even frustrate the ability to provide meaningful comment. even so, i strongly encourage your participation to inform the rulemaking process. this audience is uniquely positioned to provide real - world feedback about the intended and unintended consequences of agency rulemakings. i look forward to all of the stakeholder comments and feedback throughout the current and upcoming regulatory rulemaking processes. i look forward to our conversation. 1 the views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the federal open market committee or the board of governors. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches