, it comes as a reflection of the seasonality which is typical of balance of payments figures. second, we look to normalisation in the accumulation of foreign assets, which has quickened considerably since the middle of the past year in the context of strengthened external, including geopolitical risks. our medium - term economic growth outlook is essentially the same. 1 - 1. 5 % gdp growth in the current year is expected to accelerate gradually to 2 - 3 % in 2021. having said that, our forecast will largely depend on the timeframes and successful implementation of the national projects along with other fiscal policy decisions. discussions are currently underway about possible options of spending the liquid part of the national wealth fund in excess of the 7 % of gdp cap. as we look into such options, it is imperative that we remember the key objective of the fiscal rule, which is to reduce the reliance of the economy, of the real exchange rate and of public finances on a volatile energy price environment so that they all become stabilised in a state equivalent to the oil price cut - off. we have largely delivered on this objective, with the impact of oil price fluctuations on the russian economy having considerably weakened. current suggestions are essentially focused on changes to the rule. they could result in either direct or indirect change in the cut - off price, entailing a strengthening of the real ruble exchange rate and undermining competitiveness of our products. alternatively, the stabilising mechanism of the fiscal rule could be undermined, yet again adding to the vulnerability of the russian economy to fluctuations in external environment. more so, the 7 % of gdp cap was set a long time ago ; yet another review is needed to establish whether this volume of liquid assets is adequate to resist to sharp and lengthy change in external conditions. as we review these and similar suggestions, we urge to fully consider the benefit and loss balance driven by change in macroeconomic conditions which may be tangible enough. approaches to fiscal and structural policies will have a significant impact on both our forecast and estimates of the balance of risks for inflation. this will in turn determine the monetary policy path. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

deeper insight into the economy. this is the second most important factor that we took into account. economic growth in the first half of the year has been lower than expected. we predicted that business activity might slow down somewhat at the beginning of the year on the back of the following factors : the vat hike, a likely slowdown in growth of the global economy and demand for russian goods and services, and the implementation period of the major national projects scheduled for the second half of the year. some of these factors had a stronger effect than expected. in particular, budget expenditure dynamics. we will be able to take a deeper insight into the economic growth slowdown after detailed gdp statistics are released. however, the 2018 data released in april and preliminary q1 2019 estimates allow us to update our gdp forecast for this year. in particular, the revision is associated with lower export growth rates and a tempered outlook for growth in the global 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches economy and external demand. we have left the forecast for consumer and investment demand unchanged in view of the expected rise in public expenses in the second half of the year. as a result, we have updated the 2019 economic growth forecast from 1. 2 - 1. 7 % to 1 - 1. 5 %. third. proinflationary risks have declined over a one - year horizon. first, we no longer expect any deferred effects of the vat hike. second, the us fed consistently eased it rhetoric since the year start amid the expected slowdown of global economic growth. all else being equal, this constrains the risks of considerable capital outflow from emerging markets. in march - april, we noticed that the risks of accelerated growth in prices of certain food products diminished. overall, they remain moderate, though current food inflation was somewhat higher in may than in the previous three months, seasonally adjusted. moving forward, we expect that record crop areas, early spring, and overall favourable weather will bring a good harvest of vegetables, grains and other crops. domestic and global grain prices have been down since the beginning of the year. this contains proinflationary risks for food products. as regards monthly growth in prices of non - food goods and services, it held close to or below 4 % in annual terms in march - may. fourth. we factored in that inflation expectations of households and businesses remain elevated against both the inflation target and the minimum levels reached in the opening months of 2018. inflation expectations show