krone exchange rate may move more in the short term than is necessary in the long term. the krone may be expected to depreciate at a later stage because higher real interest rates, combined with expectations of a depreciation of the krone, contribute to convergence between the expected real return on capital invested in norway and in other countries. moreover, there may be additional fluctuations in the krone exchange rate if market expectations concerning the use of petroleum revenues deviate from what is actually the case. given today's exchange rate, it would appear that foreign exchange operators have already priced in an increase in the use of petroleum revenues. the cyclical divergence between norway and other countries is reflected in forward rates in norway, the us and germany. forward rates are expected short - term interest rates that can be derived from long - term bond yields. market expectations point to interest rates of about 6½ per cent in norway in the long term. interest rates above 6 per cent are expected in the us, and a little below 6 per cent in germany. norwegian interest rates are now somewhat higher than expected short - term interest rates in the long term. this reflects a relatively tight monetary stance and tight economic conditions. on the other hand, interest rates in the us and germany are exceptionally low as a result of the downturn. short - term rates have not been that low in the us for 40 years. the wide difference between the economic situation and short - term interest rates in norway and abroad is one of the driving forces behind the appreciation of the krone. forward rates ahead indicate that the market expects the interest rates differentials to diminish as the cyclical divergence narrows. the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates was not as strong during the period when equity prices rose sharply towards the end of the 1990s and to the first quarter of 2000. this was a period when the quest for equity gains was also important for exchange rate developments. financial markets have since shifted their focus. even if the krone is strong, expectations concerning the krone are not particularly strong. if kroner are bought forward for delivery a few years ahead, and the exchange rate is agreed today, it will be at an exchange rate that is on a par with the average exchange rate for the 1990s. the cyclical divergence that is reflected in the krone exchange rate is not entirely disassociated from our position as an oil economy. at least since the end of the 1990s, it

these markets : but there is no corresponding data matrix at the global level. it will be important that the emir dataset can be linked to other datasets to understand the total balance sheet exposures. the adoption of common identifiers, such as the legal entity identifier ( lei ), across the various granular data initiatives is critical to facilitate these linkages. another challenge posed by globalisation is the dual roles played by multinational firms in production and in the international financial system. 1 it is increasingly difficult to interpret national economic and financial accounts, given the mis - match between the global - level integrated 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches activities of international firms and the residency - based concepts that underpin national accounting. in particular, the scale of cross - border intra - firm transactions is a severe challenge in working out the implications of observed balance of payments flows. the wide spread use of special purpose entities in the financial transactions of multinational firms further adds to the difficulty in accurately capturing the underlying trends. at european and global levels, developing a shared understanding among statisticians of the international activities of multinational firms is a high priority due to the threat to the relevance of statistics. the statistical system will also need to become more agile, as the activities of multinational firms evolve at a rapid pace and the underlying rules and manuals can take several years to catch up. so, from a financial stability perspective, in identifying next steps for escb statistics, an important priority is to continue the painstaking work to develop sufficient momentum and trust across jurisdictions to enable more data sharing at a global level across these various dimensions. let me turn to the data requirements for effective macroprudential policymaking. in particular, let me focus on borrower - based measures such as loan - to - value ( ltv ) or debt - to - income ( dti ) ceilings that can help improve the stability of mortgage markets. since risks are concentrated in the higher - risk tail of the distribution of mortgage loans, it is very helpful to have granular, loan - byloan data in calibrating borrower - based measures. in particular, a full risk assessment requires a capacity to match loan data with borrower characteristics such as income level, employment status, household composition, non - mortgage debts and other financial assets and liabilities. in relation to gaining an overview of the aggregate debts of a household, it is important to highlight the value of a comprehensive consumer credit register. since loan balances and