substantially from simple rules, it should be possible to explain the reasons for this. these criteria are important guidelines in forecasting an interest rate that provides a reasonable balance in monetary policy. of course, the criteria cannot provide a precise instruction as to how the interest rate should be set, but points to factors we should have taken into account and assessed. in some contexts, the various criteria may be in conflict. in these situations, it is particularly important to exercise judgment in the trade - off between the different objectives of monetary policy. uncertainty surrounding future interest rate developments what i have said so far about interest rate forecasts have perhaps left the impression of an exaggerated belief in control. this was not my intention. our recent history underscores that economic developments involve a great deal of uncertainty. even if the bank publishes a forecast for the interest rate, this does not mean that the interest rate will follow the forecast throughout the projection period. forecasts for inflation, output, the interest rate and other variables are based on an assessment of the current situation and a perception of how the economy functions. disturbances to the economy may result in changes in the forecasts. our ambition must be to reduce uncertainty with regard to our own response pattern. that actual interest rate developments will deviate somewhat from norges bank's forecast must be expected to be the rule rather than the exception. there is, in other words, substantial uncertainty associated with future interest rates. i would draw your attention to the fact that the executive board, when providing a more precise indication of where the interest rate level should lie over the coming four month period, operates with an interval of around one percentage point. uncertainty does not of course diminish as we look further ahead. this is a familiar situation for financial market participants, who are constantly changing their expectations concerning future interest rates as the economy is exposed to disturbances. market participants ’ interest rate expectations can be calculated on the basis of observed money market rates. the deviation between market expectations and the actual interest rate has been substantial in periods. one important reason for this is that the norwegian economy has been exposed to for more about these criteria, see qvigstad, j. f. q. ( 2005 ) : “ when does an interest rate path “ look good ”? criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path - a practician ’ s approach ”, staff memo 2005 / 6, norges bank, se www. norges - bank. no. unexpected disturbances, often originating in the

jwala rambarran : the proposed new regulatory regime for credit unions feature address by mr jwala rambarran, governor of the central bank of trinidad and tobago, at the sixty third annual general meeting of the telephone workers ’ credit union co - operative society limited, port of spain, 16 march 2013. * * * ladies and gentlemen, i sincerely thank the board of telephone workers ’ credit union for the kind invitation to deliver the feature address at your sixty third annual general meeting. it is indeed an honour for me to be part of this occasion. in june 1950, telephone workers ’ credit union opened its doors with 38 members and a share capital of $ 51. sixty three years later, you can boast a membership in excess of 5, 000 and a resource base of nearly $ 415 million. this enduring journey of building wealth for generations of your members is certainly testimony to the significant resilience of telephone workers ’ credit union and a clear indication that you are living up to your motto “ progress through self reliance ”. in fact, i am aware of a few other credit unions whose journeys are broadly similar to telephone workers ’ credit union and which can boast of their own achievements. for this reason, i want to underscore that the central bank recognizes the important contribution that credit unions are making to our society, especially in reaching out to the ordinary working men and women who are underserved by traditional financial institutions. indeed, i find it a fitting tribute to the global credit union movement, which has always stressed the brotherhood of man that, the new pope who is known for his concerns for the poor, chose for the first time the name of saint francis of assisi, whose prayer is widely recognized as the official prayer of credit unions worldwide. for more than 65 years, the credit union movement in trinidad and tobago has been putting this ideal of the brotherhood of man into practice in the socio - economic field. credit unions have been helping their members to develop a savings habit, to educate them on financial matters, and to finance small business start ups, even while experiencing considerable turbulence and consolidation. today, about one - third of the population are members of credit unions and collectively manage some $ 9. 5 billion in assets, or almost 4 percent of the total assets of the entire financial system. in effect, ladies and gentlemen, the credit union movement has contributed to financial deepening in the trinidad and tobago economy, bringing financial services closer to their members, their families and their communities.