. for now, the growth perspectives remain strong in the us, as confirmed by recent robust labour market data, and option - implied distributions of inflation expectations show upside risks to inflation. in that context, markets expect the fed to cut interest rates less this year than previously anticipated. the expectations component is estimated to account for about two - thirds of the increase in the 10 - year treasury yield since mid - september. page 4 sur 6 the macroeconomic picture is different in the euro area. the disinflation trajectory is more clear - cut and the macro outlook is weaker. the contagion to european yields from higher us interest rates has thus been limited so far : monetary policy perspectives could and should rightly decouple. but spillovers on the bond markets operate also through the global risk channel. in a more uncertain global environment, investors require higher compensation for lending long term, which results in higher term premia. the contribution of the term premium to the change in ois 10 - year rates since mid - september is almost 15 bp. the impact of this rise in the term premium on financial conditions in the euro area is however mitigated by the depreciation of the euro / dollar exchange rate which has occurred during the same period. c ) the role of unwinding qe shouldn ’ t be overstated some commentators argue that the end of qe has contributed to the rise in long - term yields. this interpretation goes back to the initial objective of qe. asset purchase programmes were launched in times of crisis and when rates were at the effective lower bound ( elb ) for two reasons : 1 ) to preserve an effective monetary policy transmission when specific market segments were under strain – which is not relevant today, and 2 ) to provide additional policy space when required ( i. e. monetary stance purpose ). in that latter case, purchases of long - term bonds aimed at compressing the term premium and therefore the long term yields, to stimulate aggregate demand. in principle, “ quantitative tightening ”, i. e. the full unwinding of all large scale asset purchases would drive the market back to the status quo ante. but there page 5 sur 6 are two reasons to discount this ; and the wording itself of “ qt ” is somewhat misleading. first, passive and bounded “ qt ” is not the symmetric of active and open - ended qe : qe ramped up quickly but unwinds much more slowly. recent research i finds

education changes lives – it definitely changed mine! the strength of st mark ’ s is the alumni association of st mark ’ s college in jane furse. addressing their 20th anniversary fundraising dinner in december 2005, i was impressed by the effort and remarked that it was indeed rare for former pupils of a black school to honour their school and commit themselves to raising funds for the institution. while education remains primarily a responsibility of government, private financial commitment is indispensable. strong alumni associations in the us, for example, contribute substantial sums of money to their institutions. in south africa, especially among blacks, there seems to be little interest among alumni to look back and support their old institutions. i do, however, acknowledge the nascent pockets of alumni associations of former black schools that are emerging in some parts of the country. this is a culture that we should endeavour to nurture. the relationship with a school does not and should not end with matriculation. we must seek to inculcate in learners that when they proceed to higher education, join the world of work or business, they remain representatives of their former schools in the community, country and the world at large. it is therefore heartening to be part of this fundraising drive, particularly because the friends of st mark ’ s have opened their hearts and wallets to deepen and widen an existing initiative by former pupils of st mark ’ s who have taken it upon themselves never to allow their alma mater to die. these are alumni who are proud of, and seek to build an everlasting relationship with their alma mater – a relationship to be treasured, nurtured and cultivated. these are men and women who value so much what they got out of st mark ’ s that they have developed a sense of community around the ownership of the st mark ’ s brand. they have decided that the st mark ’ s brand will be preserved and enhanced for current and future generations. the importance of building strong alumni associations cannot be overemphasised. the continued involvement and support of alumni have proved to be the hallmarks of long - term success and sustainability of schools and colleges in many parts of the world. as pressure on education budgets mounts the world over, fundraising events like these are no longer intended to raise supplemental income to fund “ extras ”, but have become essential components of schools ’ budgets. fundraisers are the financial lifeline for st mark ’ s college – a matter of life and death. while alumni associations may be instrumental