import restrictions but, according to our estimates, these factors will contribute to inflation increase only till late 2015 q1, afterwards, the inflation will start declining. by late 2015, inflation will fall to 8 %. inflation is forecast to slow down to the target of 4 % by late 2017. these dynamics are largely connected with the increased inflation expectations. in this regard, the bank of russia intends to conduct its monetary policy to prevent further aggravation of inflation and inflation expectations. as i have mentioned, under the baseline forecast the current account surplus will amount to $ 56 billion in 2015 which is below the possible capital outflow we estimate to reach up to $ 120 billion next year. next year the volume of external debt payments will also approximate to $ 120 billion, of which banking sector debt payments will amount to $ 42 billion, including interest payments. non - financial sector debt payments are estimated to be $ 77 billion, including interest payments. we have made special calculations based on the reporting data received from banks and the survey of 40 largest companies. according to our estimates based on these data, more than 10 % of these payments refer to intergroup transactions. another 20 % can be refunded in the international markets. at least 15 % can be redeemed through the partial use of cushion of liquid foreign exchange assets accumulated by banks and state - owned companies. the remaining 55 % of debts subject to redemption which make about $ 65 billion can be covered from the current account balance and reduction of international reserves. according to our calculations, operations to close the gap of the balance of payments will require about $ 70 billion next year. the bank of russia will carry out transactions aimed at maintaining stability of the balance of payments, i. e. the financial stability, in the stipulated volumes. we believe that the international reserves are sufficient to carry out foreign exchange transactions in such volume. meanwhile, in the next three years, the reserves level will be significantly above the generally accepted adequacy indicators. there definitely will be no deficit of foreign exchange liquidity given these parameters of the balance of payments and the volume of our operations. we indent to conduct the aforementioned fx repos, extend foreign currency loans and carry out occasional direct fx buy / sell transactions, inter alia, to accumulate and use government reserve funds. it should be noted that under this scenario the ruble should appreciate considerably next year due to both the compensation of the currently observed exchange rate overshoot or, in other words, excessive depre

elvira nabiullina : review of recent inflation developments in russia and economic outlook statement by ms elvira nabiullina, governor of the bank of russia, in the follow - up to the board of directors meeting, moscow, 6 september 2019. * * * today, the board of directors has decided to reduce the key rate to 7 % p. a. if economic conditions are in line with our forecast, we will look into further key rate reduction at one of the upcoming meetings. let me dwell on the main factors behind the decision. first. annual inflation has already approached 4 %. our estimates suggest that as of the year - end it will fall within the range of 4. 0 - 4. 5 %. meanwhile, inflation is forecast to stand at 3. 5 - 4. 0 % in the opening months of next year. this is largely associated with the fact that the vat rate increase will be factored out from the calculation of annual inflation. this may be considered as a purely technical factor. sustainable trends point to inflation of about 4 %. second. inflation expectations of households and businesses remain elevated. therefore, we stay focused on their dynamics. right now, i will not highlight the figures we released last week. however, i would like to note that previously we abstained from posting the results of surveys on household inflation expectations during ‘ the week of silence ’. we have discussed this issue and from now on we will publish these data as soon as they are released. it is essential that the market promptly receives the information which the board of directors consults when making its decision. the bank of russia will continue to publish its analytical commentary that summarises and estimates expectations of households, businesses and analysts, after ‘ the week of silence ’. third. monetary conditions are continuing to loosen. we expect that both previous and today ’ s key rate decisions will underpin this trend. market expectations for interest rates shifted downwards on the back of the signals in the followup to the board meetings in june and july. this was also driven by the shifting expectations for monetary policies of the us fed and the ecb as the economic growth outlook for the us and euro area deteriorated. the decline in interest rates comes with an easing of non - price lending conditions in terms of maturities and volumes. the easing of both price and non - price monetary conditions contributes to expansion in lending. according to our estimates, corporate lending will rise by 7 - 10 % while retail lending will increase