be shaped by brexit. until the turn of the year, the uk economy had been growing around its trend rate. as the mpc had anticipated, this year increased brexit uncertainty is causing volatility in the uk data. output increased by 0. 5 % in the first quarter of this year, boosted by an important contribution from companies bringing forward production to build stocks ahead of the potential 29th march cliff edge. growth in the second quarter will be considerably weaker, in part due to the absence of that stock building effect and brexit - related, temporary shutdowns by several major car manufacturers. 12 recent data also raise the possibility that the negative spillovers to the uk from a weaker world economy are increasing and the drag from brexit uncertainties on underlying growth here could be intensifying. the latest surveys point to no growth in uk output. looking across the first half of the year, in my view, underlying growth in the uk is currently running below its potential, and is heavily reliant on the resilience of household spending. the intensification of trade tensions has increased the downside risks to global and uk growth. in this regard, the news at the weekend that the us and china agreed to restart trade talks is welcome – though as we have learnt, progress today is no guarantee of progress tomorrow. to recap, the direct effect of the measures announced thus far would have only a marginal impact on the uk, of - 0. 1 % of gdp. that would rise to - 0. 4 % if all measures, including auto tariffs, were implemented. if there were a brexit - style business confidence shock in the us and china, the total impact on the uk would start to be material, rising above - 1 % of gdp ( table 3 ). since the middle of last year, expectations of uk rates three years ahead have fallen by around half a percentage point and 10 - year gilt yields are similarly lower. that would roughly offset the hit to uk gdp in the downside scenario of a significant, brexit - like hit to us and chinese business investment. but global trade tensions are not the only factors influencing uk financial conditions. they also remain highly sensitive to the perceived probabilities of different brexit outcomes. that ’ s because asset prices are mean expectations, reflecting the weights that market participants place on every possible outcome. as the mpc noted in the minutes to its june meeting, several major car

gent sejko : bank of albania's achievements in 2024 address by mr gent sejko, governor of the bank of albania, at the end - of - year meeting with the media and the governor's award ceremony, tirana, 16 december 2024. * * * dear media representatives, dear students, dear participants, welcome to our traditional end - of - year meeting! the bank of albania holds this annual event every end of year to extend our gratitude and to thank you, media colleagues, for your work in conveying and communicating our policies and activities. as traditionally, we also hand out the governor's award for the best diploma thesis. dear journalists present here today, as well as all those who, for various reasons, were unable to join us in this year - end celebration ; throughout 2024, you have worked tirelessly to transmit with objectivity, truthfulness, and in real time the entire activity of the bank of albania. for this, i sincerely thank you! through your work, the bank of albania has been able to communicate to the public its decision - making in the field of monetary policy and financial stability, announce regulatory amendments, and provide the latest updates in the areas of banking supervision, payment systems, financial education and inclusion, and financial digitalization. your professionalism has enabled us to have an effective communication, helping to transmit our policies in the economy, and consequently, preserving price stability, financial sector stability, and macroeconomic stability in the country. new technological developments and global uncertainties render the communication of central banks with the public even more important. for albania, this communication becomes even more valuable, as individuals are challenged by the unsatisfactory level of financial literacy, particularly digital literacy. nevertheless, thanks to your work and in close collaboration with you, we have succeeded in conveying to the public the stance and expected consequences of every policy undertaken, reflecting the truth and eliminating any misinterpretation or deviation from it. since this is also our closing meeting for this year, i would like to briefly address some of our most recent achievements and the challenges we are facing. the latest data for 2024 on macroeconomic developments in albania, show that the positive performance of the economy coupled with the increased employment and revenues, have led to elevated income for businesses and households, which in turn are reflected in higher household's spending and business investments. in parallel with these developments, inflation has been rapidly declining, fully recovering from the