elvira nabiullina : review of recent inflation developments in russia and economic outlook statement by ms elvira nabiullina, governor of the bank of russia, in the follow - up to the board of directors meeting, moscow, 6 september 2019. * * * today, the board of directors has decided to reduce the key rate to 7 % p. a. if economic conditions are in line with our forecast, we will look into further key rate reduction at one of the upcoming meetings. let me dwell on the main factors behind the decision. first. annual inflation has already approached 4 %. our estimates suggest that as of the year - end it will fall within the range of 4. 0 - 4. 5 %. meanwhile, inflation is forecast to stand at 3. 5 - 4. 0 % in the opening months of next year. this is largely associated with the fact that the vat rate increase will be factored out from the calculation of annual inflation. this may be considered as a purely technical factor. sustainable trends point to inflation of about 4 %. second. inflation expectations of households and businesses remain elevated. therefore, we stay focused on their dynamics. right now, i will not highlight the figures we released last week. however, i would like to note that previously we abstained from posting the results of surveys on household inflation expectations during ‘ the week of silence ’. we have discussed this issue and from now on we will publish these data as soon as they are released. it is essential that the market promptly receives the information which the board of directors consults when making its decision. the bank of russia will continue to publish its analytical commentary that summarises and estimates expectations of households, businesses and analysts, after ‘ the week of silence ’. third. monetary conditions are continuing to loosen. we expect that both previous and today ’ s key rate decisions will underpin this trend. market expectations for interest rates shifted downwards on the back of the signals in the followup to the board meetings in june and july. this was also driven by the shifting expectations for monetary policies of the us fed and the ecb as the economic growth outlook for the us and euro area deteriorated. the decline in interest rates comes with an easing of non - price lending conditions in terms of maturities and volumes. the easing of both price and non - price monetary conditions contributes to expansion in lending. according to our estimates, corporate lending will rise by 7 - 10 % while retail lending will increase

treasury recently estimated that the fund attracts $ 15 in nonfederal investments for every dollar it invests in a cdfi. 4 in addition, the government provided new market - based incentives to attract private capital to community development. for example, the low - income housing tax credit program, created in 1986, offers credits to investors in affordable rental housing. the affordable housing developments, in turn, often rely on community - based organizations to help with development, financing, and property management. more than 2 million units of affordable rental housing have been built as a result of investors using the incentives offered by the program since its inception. 5 today, nationwide, there are more than 1, 000 certified cdfis with a collective $ 25 billion in assets. 6 these organizations have loaned and invested billions of dollars in our nation's most distressed communities and have attracted many conventional investors into underserved areas. for small businesses in particular, cdfis provide critical funding because many traditional creditors view such loans as too risky or, sometimes, too small to be profitable. as a complement to lending, cdfis offer training and technical assistance to their customers, directly or through partnerships, thus increasing borrower capacity and mitigating loan risk. successful cdfi borrowers often graduate to conventional financing as their needs grow, david erickson ( 2006 ), " community capitalism : how housing advocates, the private sector and the government forged new low - income housing policy, 1968 - 1996, " journal of policy history, vol. 18 ( 2 ), pp. 167 - 204. the cdfi fund was established by the riegle community development and regulatory improvement act of 1994, pub. l. no. 103 - 325, 107 stat. 2369. u. s. department of the treasury, office of performance budgeting and strategic planning ( 2009 ), fy 2010 budget in brief ( washington : department of the treasury ). national council of state housing agencies ( 2007 ), state hfa factbook : 2006 ncsha annual survey results ( washington : ncsha ). cdfi data project ( forthcoming ), " providing capital, building communities, creating impact – fiscal year 2007 ". previous reports can be found at http : / / cdfi. org / index. php? page = dataproject - c. thereby attracting the participation of mainstream lenders while freeing up cdfi resources to plant new seeds in the community. 7 current challenges and opportunities for cdfis cdfis have certainly