and a high debt - to - income ratio of borrowers — from august. the bank of russia will stand ready to further increase macroprudential add - ons to prevent the accumulation of systemic risks and to ensure financial stability. since our meeting in april, the balance of risks has tilted even more towards proinflationary risks. elevated inflation expectations as a response to high inflation and low interest rates still pose a major risk. with fears of future price growth, people tend to spend more today and save less for tomorrow. this makes prices grow even more rapidly. disinflationary risks look weaker. they are connected with, firstly, a faster reopening of borders. in this case, domestic demand may partly shift to imports of tourism services, easing domestic demand - side pressure on prices. secondly, if the pandemic deteriorates, depending on the pace of vaccination and the spread of new coronavirus strains, the global economy will grow much more slowly. thirdly, a bumper harvest may cause inflation to slow down. as far as monetary policy prospects are concerned, we are prepared to step up actions needed to bring inflation back to the target. as i have already mentioned, the board of directors sees the necessity of further increases in the key rate at upcoming meetings. we will determine the scope and pace of increasing the key rate based on our assessment of the level of sustained inflationary pressure, the timeframe for inflation expectations stabilisation, as well as the forecast 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches of further movements of aggregate demand and supply. our monetary policy will ensure annual inflation to return to the near 4 % target in the second half of 2022. thank you for your attention! 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches

elvira nabiullina : review of recent inflation developments in russia and economic outlook statement by ms elvira nabiullina, governor of the bank of russia, in the follow - up to the board of directors meeting, moscow, 14 june 2019. * * * today, the bank of russia has decided to cut its key rate to 7. 50 % per annum. we also revised our end - 2019 inflation forecast downwards by 0. 5 pp, to 4. 2 - 4. 7 %. should our baseline forecast materialise, we hold open the possibility of a further rate cut at one of the upcoming board meetings. we assume that we may shift to neutral monetary policy before mid - 2020. i will now highlight the factors we considered while making today ’ s decision. first. there is a stable trend towards inflation slowdown. it is attributed to the bank of russia ’ s key rate decisions including the preemptive hike in the second half of last year. we passed the inflation peak of 5. 3 %, slightly lower than we expected, in march. inflation slowing down from this lower peak is overall in line with our forecast. in the february - may period, prices rose by approximately 0. 3 - 0. 4 % a month, seasonally adjusted. that means that the monthly growth pace has returned to the lowest readings since last august and stands near 4 % in annual terms. annual inflation fell to 5. 1 % in may, and came in at 5 % precisely as at the beginning of this week. this dynamics is attributed to the following factors. the effect of the vat increase on inflation has run its course. the ruble ’ s strengthening since the beginning of the year made an additional contribution to inflation slowdown. higher oil prices and overall favourable conditions in financial markets helped. international investors ’ interest in russian assets recovered, which was the most distinctive in the ofz market. the agreements on retail fuel prices between the russian government and oil majors are continuing to play a significant role. consumer petrol prices rose in may by 2. 8 % year on year, and their growth is likely to be moderate in the near future. that said, the new regulation in this market, in particular, the offsetting mechanisms ( including reverse excise duties ), is rather complicated. currently, it is hard to accurately estimate its medium - term economic effectiveness, especially for scenarios providing for tangible oil price fluctuations. moderate domestic demand is also curbing inflation. this calls for a