samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
national bank of serbia introductory speech at the presentation of the inflation report – august 2021 dr jorgovanka tabakovic, governor belgrade, 18 august 2021 ladies and gentlemen, esteemed members of the press, dear colleagues, allow me to bid you welcome to the live presentation of the august inflation report after more than a year, with a sincere wish that in the coming period we continue to hold press conferences in this manner. apart from monetary policy decisions and our estimates about inflation movements, one of the spotlight topics in the world, i believe that the fact that we have revised our most important macroeconomic projections will be of special interest and importance to you. i am sure that you all know very well that when the national bank of serbia revises its projections and communicates that to the public, such revisions are always based on serious and detailed analyses and firm arguments. this is the reason why we stand before you today, in a good mood and ready to answer any questions you may have. though the risks emanating from the international environment still persist, the serbian economy continues to grow, even faster than initially expected. such movements were largely supported by a comprehensive package of measures adopted already at the start of the pandemic. i have emphasized that publicly several times before and i will do so again – timely and well - calibrated measures of monetary and fiscal policies minimised the economic consequences of the pandemic, accelerating the recovery of our economy. we reacted timely and adequately, and that way, at the time of greatest uncertainty, we prevented the spillover of the pandemic - induced crisis on the fall in business and consumer confidence. at the same time, we managed to preserve the labour market and production capacities of the economy. illustrative of this is the fact that we ended the year 2020 with one of the best economic results in europe, and this year we expect to maintain the leading economic performance. chart 1 revisions of serbia's gdp growth projections for 2021 and the medium term ( in % ) ( y - o - y rates, in % ) chart 2 gdp growth projection 6. 5 6. 0 4. 5 4. 0 - 4 - 8 old projection source : nbs. medium term new projection ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii source : nbs. the pre - crisis gdp level was exceeded already in q1 – one quarter earlier compared to the initial estimates, and the recovery extended in q

monetary policy must work in concert to reduce the impact of a decline in labor demand ; neither can do it alone. returning to the question posed at the beginning, this model suggests that the federal reserve is performing about as well as it can on both mandates. the federal reserve ’ s accommodative policy has offset much of the impact of product demand shocks and so has kept inflation near target. however, this policy has been unable to offset the large adverse shocks to labor demand. the model implies that, in terms of employment, there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve on its own. bis central bankers ’ speeches
the executive board ’ s internal work. we are discussing this at present. the riksbank is constantly working on improving our analysis methods and our methods of communicating our decisions. it will therefore be particularly exciting and interesting to see the assessment of monetary policy, which two external experts have made and which will be ready soon. it will no doubt contribute to a serious discussion of monetary policy and how the framework for the policy can be further developed in a small open economy like sweden. i look forward to these discussions. thank you!

now. the fact that we have highlighted developments in house prices and household indebtedness has nothing to do with financial stability. it is because we are concerned about future inflation and growth. developments in asset prices can in certain situations be a sign of risks to inflation and the real economy that need to be taken into account. one problem is that it may be difficult in the forecasting and analysis work to know how to interpret major fluctuations in house prices and prices of other assets. one reason for this is that the models used to make forecasts do not have sufficiently sophisticated descriptions of the financial sector and its interplay with the real economy. the problems are particularly great when house prices and credit growth have over a long period developed in a manner that is not sustainable in the long term. given the analysis and forecasting tools we use today, it is difficult to say whether a sudden correction in house prices will occur, or whether we can count on a calmer and more prolonged adjustment. at the same time, the riksbank must take into account the risks when conducting its monetary policy. if house prices and household indebtedness increase rapidly over a long period of time, there is a risk of imbalances building up. these imbalances may force an adjustment further ahead and in the worst case may have severe consequences for the real economy and inflation. if house prices rebound, this could lead to subdued demand further ahead through both a decline in household consumption and reduced investment in construction. this type of development could in the longer term lead to both inflation being below target and to weaker growth in the economy. it is difficult to manage this type of risk. one possibility is to make changes in the interest rate slightly sooner or later than would otherwise be justified on the sole basis of the forecasts for inflation and the real economy. it is hoped that such a policy will contribute to a smoother adjustment process and help to avoid a more abrupt correction. a two - year horizon is a good decision rule, but it cannot always work in all situations. there are now signs of some slowdown in the housing market. for the first time in two years the median price for houses has fallen, according to swedbank ’ s boindex. moreover, the rate of increase in household borrowing from mortgage institutions is now slightly lower than it was in the spring. of course, it is impossible to draw any far - reaching conclusions solely on the basis of these observations. however, we will make a
jeanne ( 2002 ) argue one should think of this aspect in terms of an insurance. see issing ( 2002 ). see borio and lowe ( 2002 ) and borio, english and filardo ( 2003 ). see blinder ( 1999 ). “ new environment ” hypothesis in the following. the reasons suggested are that for quite some time inflationary pressure might not show up in inflation itself, due to a ) low pricing power of firms, b ) positive supply side developments and c ) well anchored low inflation expectations. it has been argued that central banks ’ focus on ( consumer ) price stability is insufficient and financial imbalances would have to be addressed directly. this direct response could consist of two parts. it would first involve trying to avoid ( or at least subdue ) the building up process of financial imbalances and second - if the former was unsuccessful ( or insufficient ) - to smooth the adverse consequences when imbalances are being unwound. policy implications i have at previous occasions already stated my doubts that price stability should be added to the list of causes triggering financial instability. i do not deny the fact that financial fragility can be significant in times of low inflation. but the latter statement that low inflation is not a sufficient condition for financial stability and the former that low inflation causes financial instability, are worlds apart. here i would like to focus on two particular aspects, which is the trade - off question with respect to the “ new environment ” hypothesis and the related relevance of the problems associated with identifying asset price bubbles. in the spirit of tinbergen if the central bank has one policy instrument, i. e. monetary policy, it can only achieve one independent goal, which is price stability. an intuitive division of labour is to assign the objective of financial stability to a financial regulatory authority, which sets up a prudential supervisory framework. this regulatory authority can but must not be the central bank. in this scenario with two authorities following one objective each, none of the authorities would be subject to a policy trade - off, as the number of instruments matches the number of objectives. nevertheless this reasoning cannot be used to exclude all conflict situations. in practice central banks ’ responsibilities concerning financial stability vary a lot. for example, no general financial stability objective can be derived from the treaty or the statute of the ecb. nevertheless the ecb has the task to contribute to policies pursued by the competent authorities relating to the stability of the financial system [ art. 105 (

the final conclusion is that there is no easy choice, which is not a surprising result in a complex world.
will work together towards preserving thailand ’ s existing savings culture, in order to keep it an integral part of thailand ’ s economic development for tomorrow and beyond. thank you.

prasarn trairatvorakul : towards a multi - polar currency and reserve system speech by dr prasarn trairatvorakul, governor of the bank of thailand, at the high - level conference on the international monetary system, zurich, 10 may 2011. * * * governor hildebrand, managing director strauss - kahn, distinguished speakers, ladies and gentlemen, 1. i would like to thank the co - hosts, the swiss national bank and the international monetary fund, for inviting me to speak at this high - level conference. so far in this session, we have listened to a number of insightful presentations by well - known speakers. to avoid repeating what has been said, i will try to frame my talk from the perspective of a small emerging market economy. my focus will be on the three problematic issues facing emerging market economies and the current international monetary system, and how we may think of what needs to be done to put our international monetary system on a more sustainable path. 2. let me start with the first issue. as of now, excess global liquidity generated under the current international monetary system is complicating the conduct of macroeconomic policy in many emerging market economies. although the expansion of the global economy has strengthened in the past few quarters, economic cycles and thus monetary policy stance among various regions greatly differ. this has been widely regarded as a key push factor for international capital flows into emerging markets. the additional liquidity infused into these economies occurs at a time when it is necessary to withdraw economic stimulus and normalize or even tighten monetary policy. this is an example of the inconsistency between global liquidity and regional economic cycles. 3. the second issue is the current international monetary system which is not aligning with the changing structure of the global economy. as we all know, one outcome from the current crisis is the growing role of emerging market economies, particularly in asia. this multi - polar economic landscape is something for policymakers to consider whether there is a need to move to a multi - polar currency system. the end goal should be to retain the efficiency of the current system while enhancing its stability going forward. 4. the third issue is, despite the shortcomings of the current international monetary system, the international community has not been able to make a transition to an alternative system. in practice, it is difficult to identify a currency to compete with the us dollar as there are certain criteria to qualify as reserve currency. first, a
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callaghan, cassino, vehbi, & wong ( 2019 ). 3 see the monetary policy handbook ( williams, et al., 2019 ). 4 see hawkesby ( 2019 ). inflation dynamics : upside down, down under? figure 1 : estimated real neutral interest rates % % us uk euro area new zealand - 1 - 1 source : bloomberg and reserve bank of new zealand in addition to these structural trends, a number of cyclical factors contributed to a moderate global slowdown in 2019. a key factor was persistent policy uncertainty, particularly around brexit and us - china trade relations. the slowdown experienced by our trading partners began to feed through to new zealand, and was one part of our decision to lower the ocr by 75 basis points over the course of the year. now let ’ s focus on how global slowdowns transmit to new zealand. global transmission channels : a framework new zealand is a small open economy that is tightly integrated with the rest of the world. our economic growth cycle is highly correlated with those of our trading partners ( figure 2 ), and our financial system relies on funding from international markets. we are part of a global supply chain, and when global growth slows, so does ours. figure 2 : annual gdp growth in new zealand and trading partners source : haver analytics, stats nz, reserve bank of new zealand estimates in aggregate, our internal models suggest that a one percentage point decrease in tradingpartner growth typically translates to a 0. 6 percentage point decrease in new zealand ’ s growth, and much of this occurs quite rapidly. 5 we find it useful to split the impact of global shocks into three transmission channels ( figure 3 ), which i will address in turn : • • • trade channel ; financial market channel ; and uncertainty channel. figure 3 : how we analyse the impact of global shocks on the new zealand economy source : reserve bank of new zealand ( callaghan et. al., 2019 ) the trade channel the first channel of transmission is through global trade. when considering global influences on new zealand exports, we have historically focused more on export prices than volumes. this reflects that in the past new zealand ’ s exports have been dominated by primary sector products whose production volumes are relatively insensitive to fluctuations in short - term demand. 6 export prices tend to fall in tandem with the global economy — low global demand should lower prices. however, throughout 2019 several temporary factors held up new zealand ’ s commodity prices. african sw
. source : central bank of chile. bis central bankers ’ speeches

remarks on the chilean economy mario marcel 1 / governor, central bank of chile april 2017 1. the last few months have brought mixed signals for the chilean economy. recent data suggest the global outlook appears more favorable, particularly for emerging economies. on the one hand, activity data and expectations in advanced economies have been more upbeat, marked by better than expected performance by the manufacturing sector and a more positive outlook following years of stagnation. as a result, deflationary risks have dissipated, as inflation is expected to return to more normal levels. the federal reserve ( fed ) has continued to normalize monetary policy and monetary authorities in europe and japan appear to have set aside the possibility of additional stimulus measures. markets have incorporated these changes in their expectations avoiding any serious disruptions. along with better signs in advanced economies, activity in china has remained relatively stable, which contrasts with what had been observed one year ago. 2. in this context, there has been a generalized increase in willingness to take on risk in financial markets, increasing stock market indices, reducing sovereign risk premiums and increasing capital flows to emerging markets. commodity prices have also benefitted. copper, our main export product, has been trading at prices near its two year highs and prospects for the next few years have improved, which has had a material impact on the chilean terms of trade. thus, based on better growth prospects for our trading partners, favorable external financial conditions and increased terms of trade, the baseline scenario included in our monetary policy report published the first days of this month, considered that, for the next two years, the chilean economy will receive an external impulse higher than considered at the end of 2016, when our previous report was published ( figure 1 ). / breakfast presentation at the council of the americas, april 20th, 2017. figure 1 trading partners gdp terms of trade ( * ) ( annual change, percent ) ( index ; 2013 = 100 ) 4. 5 4. 5 4. 0 4. 0 mar. 17 mar. 17 3. 5 3. 5 dec. 16 3. 0 3. 0 dec. 16 sep. 16 sep. 16 2. 5 2. 5 avg. 00 - 07 avg. 10 - 15 ( * ) for comparison effects with the new 2013 benchmark compilation, the tot of previous reports are adjusted to 100 for 2013. source : central bank of chile. 3. on the domestic front, inflation has been consistent with what was expected in december. the annual variation of the
we must act now, and we must act together, to secure a cleaner and greener future. 1 link to “ ngfs glasgow declaration action ” : www. ngfs. net / sites / default / files / ngfsglasgowdeclaration. pdf 2 / 2 committed to bis central bankers'speeches

regulations. finally, the success of exchange linkages is highly dependent on investors ’ interest in cross - border trades via the linkages. to achieve this, the linkages must provide a cost efficient solution for investors ’ trading needs. there is also a need to cultivate asian investors ’ interest in cross - border investments. asian investors ’ investment portfolios traditionally reflect a strong home bias. to help profile non - domestic securities and enhance investors ’ trading interest in these securities, regional exchanges could explore the possibility of cross - trading or cross - listing of securities, particularly in neighbouring exchanges where information barriers are low. more efforts should be taken to facilitate local and foreign investors ’ participation in our markets. however, investors ’ interest in cross - border trades is also in part, driven by their level of confidence in how markets are characterised by sensible regulation and high standards of corporate governance. enhancing corporate governance and regulation there has been much focus on the corporate governance and regulation of exchanges in many jurisdictions. as institutions of system - wide or systemic importance, the issues relating to the corporate governance of exchanges are for the most part similar to the issues for banks and insurance companies. weak corporate governance of such institutions can undermine public confidence in the financial system. however, unlike other financial institutions, exchanges perform varying degrees of supervisory and regulatory functions over their members and listed companies. potential conflicts of interests exist between these regulatory functions and the exchanges ’ commercial functions. these conflicts may be accentuated for demutualised and listed exchanges. while profits are not irrelevant to other exchanges, they are the primary motive for shareholders of listed exchanges. regulators worldwide have been grappling with these issues as more exchanges demutualise and list. mas believes that credibility in governance and regulation is a vital commercial asset for exchanges. investors are more likely to invest and trade on an exchange if they are confident that they can do so without being defrauded or without other investors having an unfair advantage. exchanges that operate fair, efficient and transparent markets, where rules are enforced in an impartial way, will have a competitive advantage. mas and sgx share a strong commitment to maintaining high standards of corporate governance. we take a collaborative approach in working together to continually keep abreast of best practices. no single model has gained universal acceptance, and no model is good for all time. we will continue to work closely together to further enhance the governance and regulatory arrangements relating to sgx where appropriate. conclusion east asian economies have seen robust growth in 2003.
adnan zaylani mohamad zahid : resilience and stability of the islamic financial services industry in an evolving risk environment welcoming remarks by mr adnan zaylani mohamad zahid, assistant governor of the central bank of malaysia ( bank negara malaysia ), at the 22nd islamic financial stability forum, kuala lumpur, 27 may 2024. * * * it is my pleasure to welcome everyone to the 22nd islamic financial stability forum, held in conjunction with the global forum on islamic economics and finance ( gfief ). i hope the discourses happening at gfief this week can serve as an action - oriented platform to build stronger cooperation towards shaping a better future. one in which, islamic economics and finance play a greater role in promoting inclusive growth, resilience and shared prosperity. the theme of today's forum, " resilience and stability of the islamic financial services industry in an evolving risk environment, " is indeed poignant in guiding our journey forward amidst shifts in the operating landscape. current global risk landscape poses challenges and opportunities in islamic finance the complexities of the financial world are ever - increasing. it becomes more evident that traditional risk paradigms are being challenged by a multitude of factors. ranging from geopolitical tensions to elevated inflation, moderating global trade, as well as technological disruptions and climate change. against this backdrop, we witness a growing expectation for the financial sector not only to maintain its resilience but to also assume a greater role in supporting sustainable economic transformation. this expectation arises from the pressing need to drive necessary changes at the scale and the speed needed to achieve the sustainable development goals ( sdgs ). the un conference on trade and development and the imf estimate that a significant funding gap of approximately usd 4. 3 trillion in global annual investments is needed to make strides in the sdgs. while this may appear as a staggering figure, this is equivalent to only around 1 % of the usd379 trillion of the total financial assets held by banks, institutional investors and asset managers. the modern financial sector stands at a crossroads of unprecedented challenges and opportunities. against this backdrop, financial institutions must not only anticipate emerging risks but also adapt swiftly to mitigate these risks. at the same time, there is the expectation to progressively enhance the vibrancy of the finance industry in order to keep meeting the needs of the society and economy. capitalising on emerging trends for more innovative and impactful solutions in islamic finance, financial transactions

in malaysia, as well as globally. on this note, ladies and gentlemen, i have great pleasure in declaring open the payment systems forum and exhibition 2005. thank you.