##mittances - in - recent - history fsb report on enhancing cross - border payments : https : / / www. fsb. org / wp - content / uploads / p090420 - 2. pdf all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches the covid - 19 crisis has accentuated these trends and brought new challenges. the covid - 19 crisis has accelerated these trends. temporary closure of shops and restaurants, or the desire to socially isolate led people to increasingly turn to online shopping. and many shops are encouraging contactless forms of payment over the use of cash. in the uk, data from link, the uk ’ s largest cash machine network, suggests that cash transactions have plummeted. since the uk lockdown began ( 24th of march ), atm cash withdrawals in the uk have dropped by around 60 %. 4 a recent link survey found that 75 % of survey respondents are using less cash than before the crisis. 5 and online sales have taken off, jumping to 30 % of total retail transactions in the uk in april 2020 from just over 18 % a year earlier. 6 to make these stats more real, my parents have for the first time in their lives begun shopping for groceries online. now, i don ’ t know whether my dad ’ s extreme grumpiness about having someone else pick his produce means he ’ ll return to shopping in - person once it ’ s safe for him to do so or whether the convenience of having someone arrive at his door with his groceries will win him over. in time, we ’ ll see how enduring the broader shifts are. indeed, in that same link survey, 76 % of respondents said that the coronavirus crisis will affect their future cash use. internationally, covid - 19 has also exacerbated challenges in sending remittances. 7 and many countries, advanced and developing, has necessitated sharp increases in government to person payments – raising new challenges. 8 4 link : coronavirus crisis means cash use down but uk still withdrawing £1billion from atms each week : https : / / www. link. co. uk / about / news / coronavirus - cash - usage - data / see link article above. ons : internet sales as a percentage of total retail sales : https : / / www. ons. gov. uk / businessindustryandtrade / retailindustry / timeseries /

0. 1 additional us - china tariffs implemented in may and june 2019 - 0. 5 - 0. 4 - 0. 2 - 0. 1 - 0. 2 additional marginal reduction in gdp in the event that … us - china raise tariffs on all imports to 25 % - 0. 5 - 0. 5 - 0. 1 - 0. 1 - 0. 2 us imposes 25 % tariffs on all auto imports and all countries reciprocate - 1. 2 - 0. 3 - 0. 3 - 0. 2 - 0. 4 - 2. 1 - 1. 2 - 0. 6 - 0. 4 - 0. 8 total if all measures are implemented sources : bank calculations. notes : the table shows the peak impact over a three - year period. table 2 : weighted average bilateral tariffs tariffs imposed by : the us china us the eu on imports from : china the us the eu the us prior to any measures taken 2. 6 9. 1 3. 3 3. 0 with measures already implemented 13. 7 22. 4 3. 7 3. 3 with contemplated measures as well 25. 0 25. 0 6. 7 7. 7 sources : bank calculations. notes : measures already implemented are the us tariffs on steel and aluminium and the reciprocated 25 % tariff on $ 250bn of us imports from china. contemplated measures are 25 % us tariffs on all imports from china and retaliatory measures and the us tariffs on eu motor vehicles and parts. moreover, these estimates may underestimate the non - linear effects of tariffs on tightly integrated global supply chains. in this regard, the early indications are not promising. the more hostile and uncertain trading environment is coinciding with sharp slowdowns in global trade, manufacturing, industrial production and capital goods orders ( chart 7 ). as a consequence, the quality of global growth has deteriorated. across the g7, the growth rate of business investment has almost halved since its peak in late 2017, leaving the global expansion more reliant on consumer spending ( chart 8 ) and reducing its resilience. 6 bis analysis finds that increasing shares of private consumption in gdp can be a leading indicator of future growth slowdowns. the work suggests a number of possible mechanisms : consumption that is financed by debt could mean that subsequent spending is more constrained ; households may choose to consume from equity gains related to house price rises during expansions but may need to cut spending if those rises reverse ; and