form of brexit will be damaging for ireland, with a “ no - deal ” brexit especially so. the mission of the central bank of ireland is to serve the public interest by safeguarding monetary and financial stability and by working to ensure that the financial system operates in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy. recognising the risks from brexit, and in line with our mandate and mission, our work has focused on ensuring that the risks to the irish economy are understood and that financial stability and consumer protection risks are identified and mitigated to the greatest extent possible. this is 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches particularly pertinent for the “ cliff - edge ” risks associated with a hard or no - deal brexit. we have also been working to ensure that regulated firms deliver on their responsibilities of preparing appropriately for these risks. for students of business, finance and accounting here in dkit you will no doubt be following developments with interest. brexit has forced us all to think about how we can be best prepared for such a disruptive event, not least the students of politics. the central bank supports the development of expertise in the fields of economics, business and finance, particularly for young people, such as the central bank of ireland ’ s generation €uro student ’ s award for young economists in ireland which i will launch later today when i visit st. mary ’ s college. this competition gives us an opportunity to recognise excellence in the next generation. it also gives students the chance to build valuable life skills while challenging themselves to learn more about the work performed by the central bank of ireland, the european central bank, and the eurosystem more widely. they will learn how monetary policy decisions are taken to ensure stable prices, and how key economic policies affect our daily lives. the central bank of ireland is also an employer of graduates, who have an opportunity to make a difference in the roles they undertake. our three year programme has over 70 graduates working across regulation, central banking and operations. our graduates come from a diverse range of backgrounds as we value the difference that people can bring. we will be coming to your career fair in dkit on 16th october, so make time to come and talk to us. i will now hand over to mark cassidy, the central bank ’ s director of economics and statistics who will give a short presentation, after which i look forward to an engaging discussion with you. thank you. 1 as articulated by a

area growth is set to remain modest for some time yet. the irish economy turning now to the irish economy, i should say that the central bank ’ s spring bulletin is due to be published to - morrow. it will be giving a fairly detailed analysis of how we see the outlook for the economy. i will confine my remarks today, therefore, to a few general observations. over the past year or so, the pace of economic growth has slowed greatly in the wake of a much more subdued international performance. with such a high dependence on international trade and a disproportionately large ict sector, it was inevitable that ireland would feel the draughts from the developments in the international economy. it was also clear that the high growth rates experienced since 1994 would decline as the economy increasingly encountered infrastructural pressures and labour market tightness, and this inevitably happened. however, the speed of the deceleration in gnp growth was much faster and its extent was significantly greater than expected. such a sharp deceleration was clearly going to be felt in people ’ s pockets and on the jobs front. given the deterioration in the general international economy, the immediate cause of the slowdown here is the weakness of demand. export growth here last year is now estimated to have been only about 4 ¼ per cent, compared with average annual increases of 19 per cent, for example, in the three years to 2000. with such a large traded sector, this slowdown was bound to be felt right through the economy. this has spilled over into domestic demand with both consumption and investment demand showing only modest growth last year. with business and consumer confidence indicators quite weak, it is unlikely that there will be much of a recovery in domestic spending in the short - term. on top of this, we have the outbreak of hostilities in iraq and the major uncertainties that this adds to the equation. at present, we are factoring in only modest growth this year in domestic spending. with only a small pick - up in export growth, gnp growth is likely to be a little less than 2 per cent. there is also some downside risk to this forecast. in this more difficult environment, the pursuit of prudent policies will leave us well - placed to participate in the upturn in the world economy when it comes. an important element in this is that, the rate of increase in public expenditure needs to continue its downward path to a more sustainable level ; it should be contained to the