john c williams : eclipse remarks by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the federal home loan bank of new york 2024 member symposium, new york city, 11 april 2024. * * * as prepared for delivery introduction good morning. the federal home loan bank of new york and the new york fed share a commitment to supporting economic strength in communities and households in our region. i look forward to speaking more about that in my discussion with president jose gonzalez in a few minutes. before we get to that conversation, i'll spend some time focusing on how the federal reserve is working to achieve our goals of maximum employment and price stability. i'll also discuss the significant progress we've seen in restoring balance to the economy and bringing inflation back down to the federal open market committee's ( fomc's ) 2 percent longer - run goal. finally, i'll share more on the trajectory of the fed's balance sheet as well as my view on where the economy is headed overall. now i need to provide the standard fed disclaimer that the views i express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the fomc or others in the federal reserve system. the dual mandate i'll turn to the numbers in a minute. but first, by a show of hands, how many of you witnessed the solar eclipse earlier this week? i'll leave the complex explanations of cosmic phenomena to dr. massimino, who i expect will give a fascinating presentation later today. but simply stated, an eclipse happens when several things are perfectly aligned. or, in the immortal words of pink floyd, when " everything under the sun is in tune. " like monday's eclipse, the federal reserve's dual mandate has two goals that need to be in tune with one another : maximum employment and price stability. restoring price stability is essential to achieving a sustainably strong labor market that benefits all. the overarching objective of monetary policy now is to properly balance restoring price stability and maintaining maximum employment, and the fomc remains strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time. strong employment, lower inflation the good news is that over the past year we have made considerable progress toward this objective. demand - supply imbalances have diminished. global supply chains, which were severely disrupted during the pandemic and early in the recovery, have 1 / 5 bis - central bankers '

2. 2 %. second, when looking forward from now until the early part of 2003, although recent developments in oil prices have lowered short - term price pressures, there are still some factors that could keep annual inflation rates above 2 % for several months to come. yet this short - term outlook is related both to base effects and to indirect taxes and administered prices, i. e. to temporary developments. third, when looking beyond the short term, we consider that both the overall economic environment and the euro exchange rate, which has strengthened since early this year, will contribute further towards reducing inflationary pressure. moreover, we expect the indirect effects of previous increases in oil prices and other factors to further unwind. although wage - related risks remain in place, they are judged less likely to materialise as long as the economic environment does not change substantially. the assessment which guided today's monetary policy decision was that, overall, the prospect has strengthened for inflation to fall below 2 % in the course of 2003 and to remain in line with price stability thereafter. our decision should also help to improve the outlook for the euro area economy by providing a counterweight to some of the existing downside risks to economic growth, thereby supporting confidence. the most likely scenario is that economic growth will gradually recover in the course of 2003 towards rates more in line with potential. falling inflation should support real disposable income and, together with a reduction in the gap between perceived and actual inflation rates, should underpin private consumption. moreover, we expect an improvement in world demand. this, and the low level of interest rates, should benefit investment. let me point out that, with today's decision, the key ecb interest rates have reached a very low level by historical standards. the governing council will continue to monitor closely all factors that may affect the prospects for inflation in the euro area. the outlook for the euro area economy will also very much depend on visible progress in other policy areas. regarding fiscal policies in the euro area, i would like to reiterate that budgetary discipline strengthens the conditions for sustainable growth of gdp and employment. therefore, sound fiscal positions, as enshrined in the treaty and further developed in the stability and growth pact, are in the interest of all the member states. given the disappointing fiscal developments in some countries and the challenges which have emerged to the eu fiscal framework, we welcome the moves to correct or prevent excessive deficits, i. e. the implementation of