key risk to inflation dynamics and economic development the war continues. accordingly, the risks of a further decline in economic potential remain, in particular due to the loss of people, territories, and production facilities. the speed of the economy's return to normal will depend on the nature and duration of the war. 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches what is more, it continues to generate the following risks : the emergence of additional budget needs, mainly those to maintain defense capabilities the likelihood of an additional hike in taxes, which – depending on its parameters – may drive up pressures on prices further damage to infrastructure, especially energy and port infrastructure, which will restrain economic activity and put supply - side pressures on prices a deepening of adverse migration trends and a further widening of labor shortages on the domestic labor market. there is also a risk of increased geopolitical tensions in the world amid the war in the middle east, the electoral cycles in some countries, and russia's attempts to form a coalition of states. at the same time, a number of positive scenarios are still likely to materialize, resulting from further acceleration of european integration processes and recovery in the energy sector. in order to maintain the sustainability of the fx market, bring inflation back to its target over the coming years, and keep inflation expectations in check, the nbu board decided to keep the key policy rate at 13 % per annum given that inflation has not yet peaked, and that pro - inflationary risks have even increased for the coming months, the nbu believes it appropriate to remain cautious while conducting its interest rate policy, and to take prudent measures to safeguard the sustainability of the fx market. to counteract price pressures, the nbu suspended its interest rate policy easing cycle in july. this has supported interest in hryvnia savings, the interest rates of which currently provide adequate protection against inflationary depreciation. in particular, the inflow of households'hryvnia term deposits resumed in the fall, and investments in domestic government debt securities continued to grow. the policy of protecting hryvnia savings from being eroded away by inflation will continue to help limit pressures on the fx market and preserve international reserves. using the regime of the managed flexibility of the exchange rate, the nbu will compensate for the structural shortage of foreign currency in the private sector and smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations. the exchange rate will fluctuate moderately in both directions in response to changing market conditions, which will further strengthen the

days into the war. in the first hours of the invasion, and further on, the nbu received overwhelming support from central banks and international organizations and institutions. the unprecedented support we have obtained from the international monetary fund, the world bank, the european union, and the united states has been truly invaluable, and has enabled ukraine not only to confront the consequences of the war, but also to look ahead and plan for long - term recovery. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches we took full advantage of this help, and now that we are on the path to recovery, we are actively exchanging our experience with our colleagues from other countries, via events such as this workshop. sharing knowledge is also a powerful resource, and, we are excited to share our expertise with you while continuing to refine our approaches. the challenges facing us may differ, but we all share a common goal – to create a sustainable economy capable of ensuring the stable development of countries. i believe that integrated approaches, the exchange of experience, and international cooperation are key elements for success in this endeavor. today we will review cutting - edge research into topics such as fx interventions, capital controls, international reserves, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies. we will be honored to hear a report from leading imf economists jesper linde and marcin kolasa on the integrated policy framework. i'm confident that their presentation will set the foundation for fruitful discussions on the practical aspects of an integrated approach. another highlight of today's workshop will be a presentation of the imf's extended quarterly projection model, or qpm. following the qpm presentation, we will hold a panel discussion with leading industry experts, chaired by natan epstein of the imf, about the specifics of implementing an integrated approach in our core macro models. this is of great practical importance to us, as we have been working closely with the imf team to improve our own modeling toolkit. i hope that today's event will be a source of new ideas and solutions for us all. thank you for your attention, and i wish you productive discussions!. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches