, thus increasing china ’ s public debt ratio, which is now low at 60 % of its gdp. leaving at the top, as the biggest risk, the rebalancing of the economy which, however, will take years and, in my view, markets will have to learn to live with this. 2. 2 oil prices since june 2014, oil prices have declined by more than 70 %, after having stabilised above us $ 100 per barrel for four years and, more generally, after rising almost continuously since early 2000. by january 2016, oil prices traded around us $ 30 per barrel, a level not seen in the past 12 years ( see figure 7 below ). in the context of weak global growth and zero or negative rate monetary policies, lower oil prices are both a fiscal and monetary policy challenge for major economies. while the positive impact on oil importer countries, and especially households and corporates, should materialize in the medium term, the negative impact on oil exporter countries, particularly on fiscal balances and the exchange rates, is more immediate and could be amplified by the energy export dependence for respective countries. bis central bankers ’ speeches in a monetary policy context, the lower inflation observed in the euro area, for example, driven in part by the oil price decline, could de - anchor inflation expectations from the ecb ’ s target. furthermore, in the us, the pressure on oil prices and subsequent pass - through to lower inflation levels could impact the economy in such a way as to delay the pace of normalisation of the federal reserve ’ s monetary policy. it should also be noted that ( like in 1985 ) today ’ s low oil price is due to a combination of weak global demand and oversupply from oil - producer countries and hence, it is suggested, prices could stay stubbornly low for quite some time. referendum on brexit the uk has entered the final pre - election period for the referendum on britain ’ s possible exit from the eu ( brexit ), which will take place on 23 june 2016, the outcome of which is very uncertain at this stage. i will say a few more things on the importance of the british referendum for the rest of the eu tomorrow morning in my lecture on europe ’ s political economy at the event hosted by the singaporean - german chamber of industry and commerce. today, i will limit myself to only one comment. it seems that the weak pound is the only “ certainty ” across the spectrum of financial markets

should be supportive of economic growth. the greek economy in the current year is forecast to be driven mainly by export growth, albeit at a slower pace, and a rise in private consumption. private consumption will be supported by the continued robust performance of the tourism sector, the ongoing recovery of the labour market and the improved disposable income of households, while investment will benefit mainly from a stabilisation of the real estate market. hicp inflation fell to 0. 8 % in 2018, from 1. 1 % in 2017. the absence of significant further increases in indirect taxation during 2018, the sharp drop in international crude oil prices as from october 2018 and strong base effects were among the main factors behind weaker inflation developments. looking forward, hicp inflation in 2019 is expected to fall to lower levels, as a result of low international crude oil prices, a slowdown in global activity and trade, as well as strong competition in the domestic retail food market. fiscal policy in 2017, for the third consecutive year, the general government primary balance exceeded the programme target. an overperformance is also expected for 2018, according both to the introductory report on the 2019 budget and to bank of greece forecasts. however, the public investment programme was once again underexecuted in 2018. moreover, considerable delays were observed in the clearance of general government arrears to suppliers, despite targeted disbursements under the loan agreement. these developments, which have been observed repeatedly in recent years, tighten credit supply constraints, thereby depriving the real economy of much - needed financing resources and weighing on long - term growth, as also pointed out by the european commission in its enhanced surveillance report. for 2019, an expansionary fiscal package amounting to roughly 0. 6 % of gdp is envisaged, partly offset by a curtailment of 0. 3 % of gdp in public investment programme expenditure. more importantly, possible further fiscal expansion in the run - up to the elections could put public finances at risk. the banking system developments in the greek banking system during 2018 were marked by an accelerating return of bank deposits, banks ’ improved liquidity situation and diversification of funding sources through access to the interbank market and away from emergency liquidity assistance ( ela ) of the bank of greece, a small recovery of bank credit and the maintenance of capital adequacy ratios at satisfactory levels. however, bank profitability remained weak. in early 2018, an eu - wide stress test exercise was