economic costs – either side of that central estimate? put more bluntly, they ask : what could go wrong? they then frame their policy setting accordingly, seeking to have a high probability of avoiding the most costly outcomes. that is, they too practise a form of risk management. this will mean that the setting of policy is altered on the basis of a shifting assessment of the balance of risks. this might be associated with a significant change in the central forecast, but need not be and often is not. on such occasions, those looking for a'justification'for the policy move in a shift in the central forecast itself might not find it. there can, equally, be other periods in which the forecast is signalling that some action is likely to be required in due course, but not necessarily immediately, and where policy - makers believe that there is uncertainty about the outlook or about the effect of policy on the economy. they might perceive some benefit in waiting a little while for further information before acting, judging that, even if that turned out to be an error, it would not be a costly one. the assessment of risks is, however, inherently judgemental : there is no data series called'balance of risks'that can be looked up, no econometric model to produce an answer. so not everyone will reach the same assessment of the balance of risks at any given time, and it would not be uncommon for a significant proportion of observers to be unable to pick the exact timing at which policy, in its efforts to manage risks, might be adjusted. indeed, if policy is about right most of the time, incremental adjustments are highly likely to be'on balance'decisions. there may therefore be plenty of people disagreeing with the decision on the day. that said, the rba has not in recent years been, by international standards, what one could call an activist central bank. the evidence is that the rba has actually been rather less likely than most of its international counterparts to move rates in any given month, having made an average of just over two rate changes per year over the past decade. the range within which the cash rate has moved has also been narrower than those of most comparable central banks. 4 alert readers will notice that the bank of japan is not included above. the reason for that is that the zero lower bound for interest rates was a binding constraint in japan – hence there was a long period of unchanged rates. had it been feasible to lower rates

around and make electronic payments more easily. the bank is building part of the infrastructure that stands at the centre of this new system that will allow funds to be exchanged instantaneously so that customers can have very quick access to their funds. our work is on schedule and is now being used in industry testing. financial institutions are also working hard on their internal systems so that customers can take advantage of the new system. developments look to be on track to allow the first payments to be made through this new system towards the end of the year. a related focus of the payments system board is the important role that new technologies can play in promoting efficiency and competition. in recent meetings the board has discussed the opportunities that distributed ledger technology could offer in the payments system and in financial market infrastructures. and it is also interested in the potential for fintech to deliver improved customer experiences. the board is therefore taking a keen interest in the work being done by the australian payments council on digital identity and customers ’ access to their banking and payments data. i hope that you have all come across the new $ 5 banknote, which was issued by the bank from early september last year. the note was well received by the community. you might also have noticed that last friday we released the design for the new $ 10 banknote. like the new $ 5, the new $ 10 will have world - leading security features, including the clear top - to - bottom window and a rolling colour effect that changes as the banknote is tilted. it will also have two raised bumps to assist people with vision impairment. just like the current $ 10 note, the new note will feature two 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches of australia ’ s most famous writers, dame mary gilmore and banjo paterson. the printing presses are busy printing the new notes and they will be issued from september this year. we are also finalising the design of the new $ 50 banknote, which we plan to issue next year. one other matter that i would like to bring to your attention is that we are in the process of commissioning an external review of the efficiency of our operations. we want to make sure that we are continuously improving as an organisation and we are seeking outside assistance to identify opportunities for improvement. the review will be focused primarily on operational and administrative matters and not on our policy frameworks. it will commence within the next month and i will be in a position to share the key conclusions with the committee when we meet later in the year.