samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
rate by 25 basis points to half a percent. and we indicated that we expect interest rates will need to rise further. we also said that we will be considering when to end the reinvestment phase of our large - scale asset purchases and allow the bank ’ s holdings of government of canada bonds to begin to shrink. this is a process known as quantitative tightening, or qt. the timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of qt, will be guided by the bank ’ s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2 % target. in closing, i want to emphasize to all canadians that the bank is determined to control inflation. with that, senior deputy governor rogers and i will be happy to take your questions. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

2025. 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches what does all of that mean for inflation? we've come a long way from the 8. 1 % inflation we saw last summer. as i mentioned, annual cpi inflation was down to 4. 3 % in march, led by falling goods price inflation, and we see further declines ahead. that's good news. but many canadians are still struggling to manage the rising cost of living, and prices of many things that people need to buy are still rising too quickly. food price inflation is just under 10 %. we expect food price inflation to come down in the months ahead, but services price inflation will take longer. continued strong demand and the tight labour market are putting upward pressure on many services prices, and those are expected to decline only gradually. we expect it will take until the end of 2024 to get inflation all the way back to the 2 % target. when we met last week, the bank's governing council discussed whether we've raised rates enough, and we considered the likelihood that the policy rate may need to remain restrictive for longer to return inflation to the 2 % target. governing council also discussed the risks around our projection. the biggest upside risk is one i just mentioned - that services price inflation could be stickier than projected. the key downside risk is a global recession. if global banking stress re - emerges, we could be facing a more severe global slowdown and much lower commodity prices. overall, we view the risks around our inflation forecast to be roughly balanced, but with inflation still well above our target, we continue to be more concerned about the upside risks. let me conclude. our job at the bank of canada is to get inflation all the way back to the 2 % target. we are encouraged with the progress so far. and seeing inflation get down to 3 % this summer will be welcome relief for canadians. but let me assure canadians that we know our job is not done until we restore price stability. price stability is important because it restores the competitive forces in the economy and allows canadians to plan and invest with the confidence that their money will hold its value. that's the destination - we are on our way and we will stay the course. with that summary, the senior deputy governor and i would be pleased to take your questions. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches
counterparties for bilateral repo transactions with the bot and act as intermediaries in forwarding liquidity adjustments resulting from bilateral repo transactions with the bot to other market participants. to further enhance trading in the market and ensure that financial institutions have sufficient liquidity for their day - to - day operations, the bank of thailand is in the process of phasing out the repurchase market that bot currently operates and introduce a full - fledged private bilateral repurchase market. future challenges would center around improving the clearing and settlement system. these markets require a minimum turnover in order to function smoothly and cost effectively. a regional perspective : risks from currency and maturity mismatches in addition to developing local bond markets, asian countries have also embarked on a regional initiative to promote the development of the asian bond market. asian countries have long enjoyed the highest saving rates in the world. in recent years regional central banks have also built up a large addition to their foreign reserves. such a large pool of domestic savings should be channeled into long - term investment in the domestic markets to support growth and development in the region. at present however, the dominant financing tools in most asian countries still continues to be short - term bank loans, and bond markets in the region still remain underdeveloped. the bulk of local savings has instead been channeled to international financial centers with a wider alternative for investment and well - developed financial markets. at the same time, asia is a recipient of short - term portfolio flows that had been destabilizing and highly volatile. these funds have further aggravated the problem of maturity and currency mismatches making the region more vulnerable to fluctuations in international capital movements. creating a more stable financial system developing regional bond markets for asia : asian savings for asian investment efficient and liquid bond markets in asia - both at the local and regional levels, would enable the private sector as well as the public sector in asia to raise and invest long - term capital without the currency and maturity risks which accompany international capital flows into the region. development of regional bond markets will help governments and businesses in the region reduce currency and maturity mismatches. aside from providing stable and long - term financing alternatives for businesses and public sector agencies in the region, this would also help strengthen the financial system in the region by making available a diverse choice of alternatives for investment, as well as support economic growth through more stable financial systems in the region. the necessity to develop a regional bond market while many countries in the region have begun

broader benefits to our economies, and together with other financial centres such as hong kong, tokyo, and sydney, create a more vibrant financial ecosystem across asia. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
luis de guindos : benjamin moll ’ s contribution to macroeconomics remarks by mr luis de guindos, vice - president of the european central bank, on the occasion of the award of the bernacer prize to benjamin moll, professor of economics at princeton university, organised by the bank of span, madrid, 23 november 2018. * * * it is a pleasure for me to celebrate with you the award of the 2018 bernacer prize to benjamin moll, professor of economics at princeton university. benjamin ’ s work — on cross - country income differences, misallocation of resources, and the role of income and wealth distributions in macroeconomics — has quickly gained the influence and recognition that other researchers can only hope to achieve much later in life. this makes him the perfect candidate for the bernacer prize, which is awarded to an outstanding young european economist working in the fields of macroeconomics and finance. the prize has specifically been awarded for benjamin ’ s “ path - breaking contributions to incorporate consumer and firm heterogeneity into macroeconomic models and use such models to study rich interactions between inequality and the macroeconomy. ” traditionally, much of the macroeconomic research disregarded the role heterogeneity across households plays in macroeconomic outcomes, such as aggregate output or inflation. under the “ representative agent ” paradigm, it was assumed that microeconomic heterogeneity was not important to understanding aggregate outcomes. while this assumption enabled a convenient approximation to be made, for a couple of decades we have known that it is clearly at odds with reality. for example, extensive empirical literature has documented that differences in disposable income, the available stock of wealth, or the exposure to unemployment risk have quantitatively important effects on households ’ choices, including how much they consume and save and how much labour they supply. this literature was, however, unable to assess the implications of household heterogeneity for macroeconomic outcomes. and this is where benjamin ’ s research comes in ; it provides a unified theoretical framework for modelling interactions between individual households and the macroeconomy, and also accounting for the role of economic policies, including monetary policy. 1 in this framework, which he developed jointly with greg kaplan and gianluca violante, macroeconomic outcomes result from the interaction of a large number of households characterised by a realistic degree of heterogeneity in their income, and in their consumption and saving decisions. benjamin ’

, “ monetary policy according to hank ”, american economic review, vol. 108 ( 3 ), march, pp. 697 – 743. 2 gabaix, x., lasry, j. - m., lions, p. - l. and moll, b. ( 2016 ), “ the dynamics of inequality ”, econometrica, vol. 84, no 6, november, pp. 2071 – 2111. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
the brisbane summit or the structural reform agenda of the chinese presidency last year. and some of you may also remember the debt reduction targets of the toronto summit. beyond continuing the work of the existing g20 work streams, it is also the privilege and, indeed, the duty of every presidency to generate new inputs. 1 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches 2. priorities of the german presidency the german g20 agenda rests on three main pillars : building resilience, improving sustainability and assuming responsibility. to this end, germany has set three main priorities for discussions between finance ministers and central bank governors and among the g20 working groups within the “ finance track ". these are enhancing resilience promoting investment, especially in africa ; and shaping digitalisation let me go a bit deeper into these issues, starting with resilience. the recent financial crisis has underpinned how important resilience is. while the crisis is considered to have passed, its negative consequences have not yet been completely overcome. making our economies more resilient means improving their ability to cope with economic shocks, but also responding appropriately to longer - term structural challenges like demographic change or digitalisation. the more resilient national economies are, the more resilient the world economy is as a whole. in economic terms, strengthening national resilience is a positive externality. in order to strengthen national resilience, the german presidency is seeking an agreement on a set of principles in baden - baden. rather than prescribing specific measures or reforms, such principles can act as a guide for g20 members when considering different actions aimed at enhancing the resilience of their economies. moreover, they complement other ongoing g20 initiatives and priorities, including the 2016 hangzhou enhanced structural reform agenda. the principles on resilience, which are currently being discussed in the g20, should aim to ensure sound public finances and to reduce vulnerabilities in the private sector. with respect to the real economy, they should advocate a favourable business environment, flexible labour market conditions and efficient social security systems. furthermore, monetary policies should be in line with central banks ’ mandates and should not overstretch them or undermine the legitimacy of central banks ’ independence. finally, g20 members should remain committed to the principle of open markets and crossborder trade – a point i come back to later in my speech. the second priority of the german presidency within the finance track is related to the objective of stimulating investment, particularly in africa

living in a period of heightened uncertainty at the moment. in times like these, the g20 is a precious treasure. the german presidency is seeking to guard this treasure and ensure its value is further enhanced. thank you for your attention. 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches
known as tegova standards. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches therefore, we expect them to increase the quality of the data, to reflect the real value of the immovable property market in order to respond to all the needs and demands mentioned above, with the final goal of maintaining the financial stability of the country. i wish you fruitful panel discussions on such an interesting and tangible topic. thank you! 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

understanding that the world is constantly changing. we have had to develop our preparedness, capacity and flexibility to innovate, sometimes with the help of old insights, as the circumstances have demanded it of us. the riksbank is not unique ; rather, this development of monetary policy can be seen at most other central banks. 1 1 see, for example, cgfs ( 2019 ), bailey et al. ( 2020 ), bernanke ( 2020 ), ingves ( 2020 ) and adrian ( 2020 ). 2 the financial markets are constantly changing – central banks need to adapt as mentioned above, today i intend to address two main changes. the first of these concerns the development of the financial sector in recent decades. globally and in sweden, the financial markets have grown larger, both in terms of the volumes traded and in terms of the number of financial instruments. the second change is that the global level of interest rates has fallen. this is having a substantial effect on the scope for policy rate adjustments to stimulate the economy, and there has been lively discussion in recent years of how this should be managed. i therefore do not intend to discuss this specific issue today, but refer to the comprehensive academic literature. 2 many analysts would argue that both of these changes, at least partly, share a basis, namely higher global saving, which, in turn, is a result of the world having become richer. 3 but i would like to separate them, as the discussion has primarily come to focus on the lower level of interest rates. the fact that the financial sector has also changed in several respects is something that needs to be given more attention, considering that the conditions on the financial markets steer how monetary policy is designed and acts. allow me, therefore, to make a brief digression on the subject. in the 1970s and 1980s, the world's capital markets were gradually deregulated. this, combined with good global growth, which is to say a richer world, and the development of information technology, led to strong development on the global financial markets in terms of outstanding volumes, turnover and new instruments. the development had major advantages. with less regulation, the financial sector ’ s basic functions – executing payments, allocating savings to investments and managing risk – could be better managed, at the same time as the strong growth on the financial markets contributed to the strong growth in the global economy. but a larger financial sector has also led to greater potential risks, as exemplified by the financial crisis
year after year, we are faced with the threat of stronger and more severe natural disasters, rising sea levels and the resulting negative impacts including the displacement of our communities. according to the 2017 climate vulnerability assessment report for fiji that was jointly compiled by the world bank and the fijian government, climate change is expected to magnify the severity and frequency of these disasters. it estimates that output that is lost every year due to 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches tropical cyclones and floods could increase by 50 percent to as much as 6. 5 percent of gdp by 2050. in the wake of covid - 19, new challenges and opportunities have obligated global leaders to rethink and re - focus on how best to keep their economies, businesses and livelihoods afloat, while at the same time collaborating globally to share resources and strategies to cope with emerging as well as on - going concerns such as climate change risks. similar to the current pandemic, the effects of climate change are far - reaching. the resulting impact on the most vulnerable and poorest segments of society become even more significant as they face more - than - double the usual risks of poverty when scarce resources become overstretched. while climate change deepens poverty, financial inclusion can build the resilience of individuals to sudden and extreme climate events. financial services designed specifically for the unbanked and vulnerable populations can potentially increase the affordability of climatefriendly products and services as well as improve access to adaptation tools. for this reason, it is important that we work together to find workable, sustainable solutions that will allow us to live and grow responsibly while respecting our environment. thus, the concept of building better and stronger economies through sustainable / green finance can unlock opportunities for awareness & capacity building. also, collaboration and leveraging tools that facilitate lending to green and socially inclusive projects can strengthen resilience. as central bankers and policy makers, the onus is on us to ensure that we lead this positive change within the financial industry that we regulate and oversee. inclusive green finance is a new and evolving policy area, not only for fiji, but amongst afi member institutions, and the rbf is grateful to afi and the afi network for bringing this very relevant issue to the fore for discussion. inclusive green finance and gender inclusive finance despite the overall progress in financial inclusion the world over, women are still disproportionately excluded from the formal financial system. according to the last global findex

##terate my thanks to the board, management and staff for your support and cooperation with the reserve bank ’ s policies and guidelines. i also salute this institution on its 20th anniversary of existence and for the role that it has played in fiji ’ s economic development. once again, my warm congratulations and all the very best in your future endeavors. vinaka vakalevu. bis central bankers ’ speeches
0. 8 ( 0. 2 ) 4. 5 ( - 0. 1 ) 6. 4 ( 0. 1 ) 6. 5 ( 0. 3 ) 4. 9 ( - 0. 2 ) 1. 1 ( 0. 0 ) 1. 2 ( - 0. 4 ) 3. 6 ( 0. 0 ) 2. 0 ( 0. 2 ) 2. 5 ( 0. 4 ) 1. 6 ( 0. 0 ) 1. 4 ( - 0. 3 ) 0. 5 ( 0. 0 ) 4. 8 ( 0. 0 ) 6. 3 ( 0. 0 ) 6. 0 ( 0. 0 ) 5. 2 ( 0. 0 ) 1. 2 ( 0. 0 ) 2. 1 ( - 0. 1 ) notes : 1. figures are calculated using gdp based on purchasing power parity ( ppp ) shares of the world total from the international monetary fund. 2. figures in parentheses are the difference from the october 2016 world economic outlook projections. source : international monetary fund. avg. growth rate ( 1980 - 2015 ) : + 3. 5 % imf projections emerging market and developing economies - 1 advanced economies world economy - 2 cy 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 note : as of october 2016. source : international monetary fund. " outlook for economic activity and prices " ( january 2017 ) forecasts of the majority of policy board members y / y % chg. fiscal 2016 forecasts made in october 2016 fiscal 2017 forecasts made in october 2016 fiscal 2018 forecasts made in october 2016 real gdp cpi ( all items less fresh food ) + 1. 2 to + 1. 5 - 0. 2 to - 0. 1 [ + 1. 4 ] [ - 0. 2 ] + 0. 8 to + 1. 0 - 0. 3 to - 0. 1 [ + 1. 0 ] [ - 0. 1 ] + 1. 3 to + 1. 6 + 0. 8 to + 1. 6 [ + 1. 5 ] [ + 1. 5 ] + 1. 0 to + 1. 5 + 0. 6 to + 1. 6 [ + 1. 3 ] [ + 1. 5 ] + 1. 0 to + 1. 2 + 0. 9 to + 1. 9 [ + 1. 1 ] [ + 1. 7 ] + 0. 8 to + 1. 0 + 0.

will not pretend otherwise. but when you consider the broad sweep of history, you must admit that canadians have always had to deal with powerful global forces and uncertainty, some more potent than the ones we face today. yet here we are, in a thriving modern economy. that is not to say things are perfect. far from it — sectors and regions of our country continue to struggle, and policy - makers have lots of work to do. still, consider what we have been through 5 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches over the past decade — the global financial crisis, the subsequent slow recovery, the collapse of oil prices, and political uncertainty abroad. despite all of that, canada ’ s economy is operating close to capacity, inflation is on target, labour force participation is up across almost all age groups, and the jobless rate is near historic lows. in my experience, one should never underestimate the ability of canadians to face and overcome challenges, using the same tools they always have — hard work and ingenuity. i wish you the very best for 2020. 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches
necessity for very large and energy consuming efforts in the area of statistics. although there are many angles which should be noticed, i would stress those which i think can give us “ the large picture ” of what should be done. the first lesson of the crisis was that timely, more granular and more inclusive data is needed. and let me note here that probably monetary statistics is one of the most explored examples, where the granularity and inclusiveness of data becomes the next inevitable developmental step. the aggregate monetary data should capture all sub - sectors of the financial sector, including insurance companies, pension funds, investment funds, other financial intermediaries and the shadow banking system. also, for the purpose of tackling the issue of cross - border financial flows, consolidated data for banking or insurance groups seems inevitable. this requires a serious reshaping of the monetary statistics. i think that the eurosystem offers a good example of concrete steps being undertaken to translate the need for granular and more comprehensive set of data, into a reality. first, the eurosystem is developing a securities holdings statistics database. “ securities holdings represent a field where exposures are often concentrated, and a lack of sufficiently comprehensive, consistent and granular information has been identified ” ( draghi 2012 ). second, more detailed balance sheets information of all financial intermediaries have been developed. third, a matrix of integrated sector accounts has been devised and is published on a quarterly basis. fourth, quarterly information on cross - border holdings of financial assets and liabilities by euro area residents is compiled, allowing for monitoring of cross - border exposures. the second lesson of the crisis was that data production should be multipurpose. the granularity of the data means in fact better use of the micro - foundations of the macro statistics. albeit the need for more granular data primarily came as a result of the requirements of the macro - prudential oversight, their weight for the monetary policy is very large as well. as monetary policy - makers we want to act proactively and this requires identification of the risks in advance, which very often requires “ going beyond the aggregates ”. hence, both for monetary policy purposes and financial stability purposes, variety of granular data and indicators are needed, which allows for data “ outliers ” and “ tail risks ” to be noticed. it is more natural than to seek for harmonized data collection systems, serving both mandates of central banks, monetary policy and financial stability

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