jean - pierre roth : global and swiss economic outlook introductory remarks by mr jean - pierre roth, chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the end - of - year media news conference, zurich, 10 december 2009. * * * by and large, our assessment of the economic and monetary situation is the same as in september 2009, with economic and financial developments running according to expectations. risks remain significant, and for this reason we are maintaining our expansionary monetary policy. global economic outlook before i address the outlook for the swiss economy, allow me to briefly examine economic developments at the international level, since they affect the outlook for switzerland. signs of a recovery in global economic activity gathered strength during the second half of 2009. the ongoing normalisation of conditions on the interbank and financial markets, together with the monetary and fiscal stimuli, supported a recovery in production, especially in the manufacturing industry. however, the legacy of the crisis still weighs heavily. the economic rebound of the past few months is largely the result of public sector intervention, and is not yet anchored firmly enough. except in emerging asia, the rebound has only partly redressed the losses sustained in 2008 and early 2009. capacity utilisation rates are still generally low, and access to bank lending remains difficult in some countries. moreover, both the labour market situation and the need to restore savings levels are weighing on household consumer spending. therefore, we still hold the view that the return to global equilibrium will be slower and more uncertain than is usually the case at the end of a recession. swiss economic outlook the swiss economy is also on the road to recovery : swiss gdp growth turned positive in the third quarter. however, value added continued to contract in the manufacturing industry. overall, demand for labour is still falling and unemployment numbers are on the rise. we are projecting a moderate recovery for 2010. private consumption growth will be held back by weak household income growth. exports will benefit from a gradual return to strength of external demand. this should allow manufacturing production to recover, albeit unevenly across the different segments. in particular, new orders in the equipment goods segment will probably continue to suffer from the excess capacity at the international level. in switzerland, too, the increase in manufacturing production will not be enough to allow excess production capacity to be reabsorbed. consequently, equipment investment is unlikely to see any improvement for several quarters, and there could be a fall in the number of manufacturing jobs. in the construction industry, on the other hand

philipp hildebrand : global economic prospects and key challenges for monetary policy summary of a speech by mr philipp hildebrand, member of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the money market event, zurich, 23 march 2006. the complete speech can be found in german on the swiss national bank ’ s website ( www. snb. ch ) * * * summary current economic developments are basically in line with the snb ’ s expectations. global economic activity is robust and the outlook is bright. the snb expects broad - based growth of over 2 % for 2006 and a moderate rate of inflation of approximately 1 %. in addition to the usual economic risks, monetary policy today is faced with three key challenges. first, the effects of globalisation on inflation must be anticipated. second, the way in which the interaction between globalisation and an ample supply of liquidity affects the price development of several assets needs to be analysed. the snb's monetary policy concept enables it to take a long - term view and to recognise possible distortions early on. third, identifying the neutral interest rate has become more difficult in today's environment. many factors tend to support a lower neutral interest rate, while others would support a higher neutral rate. against this background, the snb will continue the gradual normalisation of its monetary policy. the scale and timing of this normalisation process will depend on further economic developments. owing to a favourable inflation trend and well - anchored inflation expectations, we are in a position to cautiously approach a neutral interest rate level.