alia, from the restricted access of russian banks and companies to external markets. in order to normalise the situation with foreign exchange liquidity, the bank of russia has introduced reverse transactions to provide it. interest rates on these transactions have been decreased to the level of libor rates plus 0. 5 pp. the volume of foreign exchange liquidity provision is determined by the demand estimates based on the balance of payments forecast. the next one - year repo auction of 15 december will accept eurobonds and provide for the possibility of early deal termination by borrowers. in the near future the bank of russia also intends to consider the introduction of foreign exchange lending secured by non - marketable assets. foreign exchange loans, extended by banks to companies with stable income in foreign currency, are supposed to be eligible as collateral. bank of russia forecast the current situation requires updating the forecasts and adjusting the policy to ensure financial and price stability enabling the economy to adjust to the new conditions and start developing as quickly as possible. the “ guidelines for the single state monetary policy in 2015 and for 2016 and 2017 ” stipulate that the removal of sanctions and trade restrictions results in certain inflation decrease and moderate acceleration of economic growth. we take this possibility into account but base our policy decisions on the forecasts providing for long - term sanctions. the baseline forecast the bank of russia currently applies in the decision - making approximates scenario iiib published in the aforementioned document. we expect average oil prices to be $ 80 per barrel during the next three years. this average price results from consensus forecast of the leading analysts. bis central bankers ’ speeches in the scenario under consideration the current account surplus remains on the acceptable level of $ 56 billion in 2015. in 2016 and 2017, no significant changes in the current account balance are expected either. the development of import substitution will boost domestic production. the service sector will see similar trend. conditions for diversification of the economy will be established. contribution of net exports to gdp will be positive. according to the bank of russia estimates, in these conditions economic growth rates will remain close to zero in 2015 – 2016, however in 2017, when import substitution and increase in non - commodity exports become more apparent, we expect gdp to grow up to 1 – 1. 2 %. higher growth rates in the next three years require structural reforms, primarily measures aimed at real improvement of business climate and higher labour productivity. the inflation level is currently affected by the actual ruble depreciation and the imposed

import restrictions but, according to our estimates, these factors will contribute to inflation increase only till late 2015 q1, afterwards, the inflation will start declining. by late 2015, inflation will fall to 8 %. inflation is forecast to slow down to the target of 4 % by late 2017. these dynamics are largely connected with the increased inflation expectations. in this regard, the bank of russia intends to conduct its monetary policy to prevent further aggravation of inflation and inflation expectations. as i have mentioned, under the baseline forecast the current account surplus will amount to $ 56 billion in 2015 which is below the possible capital outflow we estimate to reach up to $ 120 billion next year. next year the volume of external debt payments will also approximate to $ 120 billion, of which banking sector debt payments will amount to $ 42 billion, including interest payments. non - financial sector debt payments are estimated to be $ 77 billion, including interest payments. we have made special calculations based on the reporting data received from banks and the survey of 40 largest companies. according to our estimates based on these data, more than 10 % of these payments refer to intergroup transactions. another 20 % can be refunded in the international markets. at least 15 % can be redeemed through the partial use of cushion of liquid foreign exchange assets accumulated by banks and state - owned companies. the remaining 55 % of debts subject to redemption which make about $ 65 billion can be covered from the current account balance and reduction of international reserves. according to our calculations, operations to close the gap of the balance of payments will require about $ 70 billion next year. the bank of russia will carry out transactions aimed at maintaining stability of the balance of payments, i. e. the financial stability, in the stipulated volumes. we believe that the international reserves are sufficient to carry out foreign exchange transactions in such volume. meanwhile, in the next three years, the reserves level will be significantly above the generally accepted adequacy indicators. there definitely will be no deficit of foreign exchange liquidity given these parameters of the balance of payments and the volume of our operations. we indent to conduct the aforementioned fx repos, extend foreign currency loans and carry out occasional direct fx buy / sell transactions, inter alia, to accumulate and use government reserve funds. it should be noted that under this scenario the ruble should appreciate considerably next year due to both the compensation of the currently observed exchange rate overshoot or, in other words, excessive depre