91 members and 14 observers covering five continents, around 85 % of global emissions, 88 % of the global economy and all global systemically important banks. and it continues to expand its coverage, reach and range of activities. activities which know no taboos and cover all the core missions of central banks and supervisors : microprudential, macroprudential and monetary policy. ngfs activities let me outline some of the ongoing activities of the ngfs that contribute towards taking immediate action to deal with climate - related risks. i will base this discussion on what the green swan book refers to as two “ epistemological breaks ” that central banks and supervisors need to consider. two ways to radically revisit conventional thinking and attitudes towards policy action. two paths to do justice to the exceptional nature of the climate crisis. two avenues for immediate action. the first proposed break refers to the importance of taking a forward - looking approach in the analysis and management of climate - related risks. this differs from traditional approaches to risk which typically use historical regularities to project possible future outcomes and are ill - suited for identifying the possible emergence of black or green swans. to close this gap, the ngfs has published macrofinancial scenarios on the potential long - term consequences of the climate crisis and climate policies. under the leadership of the bank of england ’ s sarah breeden, the ngfs will next week publish new vintages of the scenarios that were first released in june 2020. these scenarios provide a framework for analysing the impact of physical and transition risks under different climate policy assumptions. while they have been developed for use by central banks and supervisors, they may also be useful for governments, academia and private sector entities. with these scenarios, the ngfs provides – and intends to regularly update – an important public good for all stakeholders, public and private, to help them engage in forward - looking climate - risk analysis under a common and consistent global reference framework. while they are an important piece of the puzzle, scenarios alone cannot mitigate climate - related risks. scenarios need to be developed into stress testing methodologies for assessing risks and vulnerabilities on an ongoing basis. this is the type of analysis and policy assessment that is the bread and butter for central banks and supervisors for so many other sources of risks. [ 6 ] thanks to the shared experiences of its wide - ranging membership and its collaboration with academia, the ngfs is uniquely placed for its work on climate scenarios and stress testing to feed

that is consistent with balanced developments in the economy has fallen. this is reflected in the low level of global interest rates. the decline in real interest rates has been particularly marked over the past 15 – 20 years. in 2001, when inflation targeting in norway was adopted, real long - term interest rates were around 3 percent. now, the same interest rates are around zero. chart : forces driving the fall in the global real interest rate the causes of the decline in interest rates are complex. in recent years, extraordinary measures by many central banks have pushed down long - term rates. over a longer time horizon, the factors behind the decline in interest rates are more structural in nature. the savings glut in 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches emerging economies, particularly china and oil exporting countries, has been one important factor. savings have probably also increased in many countries as a result of demographic developments and a more uneven distribution of income. at the same time, investments in many advanced economies have been low, possibly reflecting prospects for low returns on investment in productive capital. in the wake of the financial crisis, conditions of a more cyclical nature have also contributed to the fall in interest rates. while deleveraging has pulled up savings, greater uncertainty may have dampened the willingness to invest. these developments have consequences for monetary policy. the level of the real interest rate that is consistent with balanced developments in the economy is usually referred to as the neutral interest rate. the difference between the actual real interest rate and the neutral real interest rate provides an indication of whether monetary policy is expansionary or contractionary. a real interest rate that is below the neutral rate stimulates economic growth, while a higher real interest rate dampens growth. the neutral interest rate is not directly observable. central banks must nevertheless form a perception of how expansionary or contractionary monetary policy is. in the past few decades, international estimates of the neutral real interest rate have fallen and are now at 1 percent or below in many countries ( see rachel et al ( 2015 ), laubach et al ( 2015 ), hamilton et al ( 2015 ), constancio ( 2016 ) and zhu ( 2016 ) ). obviously, international interest rate developments affect norwegian interest rate setting, particularly through the exchange rate channel. and norges bank ’ s estimate of the neutral interest rate has been gradually revised down in pace with international developments. the bank ’ s forecasts are now based on the assumption that a neutral nominal money market rate