11 per cent down ). unemployment we think will continue to rise somewhat during 2010, though a reversal of net migration flows will serve to limit this. the current recession has resulted in a significant deterioration in the labour market position of the young in the worst affected countries. in germany, the unemployment rate has hardly moved during the recession, whether at the aggregate level or among the under - 25s. in the usa, which has seen its aggregate unemployment rate double from about 5 to about 10 per cent, youth unemployment went up only slightly faster from 12 to 19 per cent. but in ireland youth unemployment has jumped from less than 10 per cent to over 31 per cent in the past two years – much faster than the aggregate rate which has gone from 4. 7 to 13. 3 per cent. ( spain has had an even worse experience ). this has to be turned around : and that will require determination. some lessons can be learnt from past experience here. this is the fourth major recession i have lived through, though i was only in primary school for the dip of the mid - 1950s which prompted the sea - change in economic policy and gave us the outward - looking globalised society we live in today. globalisation has allowed us to converge in average living standards to the european frontier, but globalisation also does seem to be associated with heightened volatility, and the depth of the current downturn reflects the over - heated expansion that preceded it, which in turn was fuelled by credit sucked - in to ireland all too readily from the globalised financial system. in short, we did not manage our engagement with the global economy in a manner consistent with stable growth. but if globalised economies can fall far, their recovery can also be vigorous. the spectacular recovery of employment and fall in unemployment after the deep recession of the mid - 1980s has rightly been attributed among other things to the wage restraint that characterized the social partnership from 1987 on. wage restraint is all the more important now, when price levels have been falling, with the result that nominal wage rates that might have been viable a couple of years ago, no longer make commercial sense. the problem is even worse because of the unsustainable upward drift in wages that occurred in the mid 2000s. i am sorry to bang on about this, but central banks aim at overall price stability to help ensure that wage and price planning can be carried out in a manner that ensures stable growth. when, as in ireland today, inflation undershoots

martin redrado : the central bank of argentina passed the test article by mr martin redrado, governor of the central bank of argentina, published in clarin newspaper on 5 august 2007. * * * this time, the epicenter was not latin america, southeast asia or southern africa. the financial turbulence of the past few days comes from the developed world – more specifically, the united states. real estate prices, which have been falling for more than twelve months now, have begun to affect the quality of the assets in the mortgage market. in particular, banks and mutual funds trading mortgages in the subprime market have passed on increased risk to the system. this has led to a massive sale off in most of the higher - yield asset classes, including emerging market securities, to cover losses in the markets of origin. against this turbulent backdrop, which leads to a new risk assessment and tighter credit, argentina has shown that it has the necessary exchange rate and monetary tools to provide its population with a horizon of solvency and predictability. in this context, the central bank of argentina is like a chess player playing simultaneous games, since monetary policy cannot have an erratic or spasmodic behavior. instead, each “ move ” must be in line with the global strategy applied in multiple chessboards, that is, preserving the value of currency, the stability and depth of the financial system, and the equilibrium in the monetary market. from this perspective, special attention should be given to the downstream effect of each “ move, ” since often, “ sacrificing a pawn ” may seem costly in the short - term, but healthy and consistent with the main goals of the framework in place from a strategic point of view. action taken – encompassing a set of financial and banking regulations and direct intervention in the monetary, foreign exchange and financial asset markets – should not be interpreted in isolation. instead, it responds to a preventive and consistent strategy developed in the past few years to ensure the necessary “ artillery ” to prevent frights in times of international financial turbulence. prudential foreign reserve accumulation is an example that speaks for itself. as with every insurance policy, it represents an “ abstract ” benefit while it is not used, but a “ concrete ” one in financial stress situations : the $ 44 billion in the central bank ’ s coffers were enough to discourage speculation that might have increased uncertainty. if this is coupled with the positive inflow of dollars coming from the external surplus, the potential