the early stages of the current financial crisis, the cesee countries performed relatively well compared to other world regions, and increases in risk premiums and downward revisions of growth prospects were rather contained. however, with the tightening of the crisis in the fall of 2008, the collapse in world trade and the global increase in risk aversion, emerging market economies in general came under considerable constraint. moreover, country - as well as region - specific vulnerabilities moved into the focus of market participants and investors. credit default swaps increased, but the increase was not at all homogeneous across cesee countries. with the change in global investors ’ sentiment, growth prospects for cesee countries had to be revised downwards substantially in the recent past. since the cesee region experienced growth rates well above the western european average, the turn in economic activity looks particularly sharp. according to the latest forecast by the european commission, gdp growth in several cesee and commonwealth of independent states ( cis ) countries will be below the euro area average, implying that the catching - up success of previous years will come to a temporary halt. among the countries hit hardest by the financial crisis are ukraine, the baltic countries and hungary. however, cesee countries must not be seen as a homogenous region. the financial crisis has a stronger impact on countries with weaker economic fundamentals, insufficient policy credibility and large economic imbalances. but the outlook for the cesee region as a whole still remains more optimistic than for the euro area. and in the years to come, the region will have higher trend growth rates, on average, than the " old " eu member states, simply because they are still in the process of convergence toward higher gdp per capita. thus, cesee will remain a driver of economic growth in europe for the foreseeable future. for the moment, however, direct and indirect external support is needed as a decisive measure to prevent recession in cesee from becoming worse than in the euro area. although the catching - up process in most cesee and cis countries over the last years was impressive, it was also characterized by some erroneous trends. let me stress two aspects that have made the affected countries extremely vulnerable to external shocks. first, in some countries credit has probably been expanded too fast. the rapid process of financial deepening needed to fund the elevated rates of economic growth in the cesee region was often accompanied by a rise in foreign ownership in the banking system. this was typically a win - win situation

klaus liebscher : european economic and monetary union - how to continue a success story? speech by dr klaus liebscher, governor of the austrian national bank, at the international financial and economic forum, vienna, 13 november 2003. * * * ladies and gentlemen, by the end of last month, the successful era of president willem duisenberg at the helm of the european central bank came to an end. at the beginning of this month, mr. jean - claude trichet became second president of the european central bank. certainly, already this change at the top of the ecb provides a good opportunity for both looking back and looking into the future. moreover, from a broader perspective, we are at the threshold of the historic event of the accession of five central european and three baltic countries as well as two mediterranean islands to the european union. when eleven eu member states entered the third stage of the economic and monetary union by adopting the common currency, the euro, on the 1st of january 1999, this historic step was accomplished in such a smooth way that it is often simply taken as a matter of fact. however, looking back, it should be highlighted that there were not at all any problems, despite heightened uncertainties in the international financial markets following the turbulences in asia, russia and brazil. certainly, this was due to the fact that this step was indeed well - prepared. moreover, the acting persons, and in particular the first president of the ecb, willem duisenberg, whose appointment became effective already as of june 1st 1998, had a strong commitment and merited high credibility. in the meantime, the ecb became a successfully working institution, the eurosystem prepared and realized a great number of logistical, operational and organizational issues - highlighted by the smooth cash changeover in 2002. and the euro establishes itself as a leading world - currency. in 2002, the share of the euro in the settlement and invoicing of global exports of individual euro area countries to countries outside the euro area has risen to between 40 % and 58 %. moreover, the euro has been well - received in the financial markets. in particular, a significant european corporate bond market has emerged. further to its role in trade and financial markets, the euro has been used by many third countries as an important official reserve currency and as an anchor in their exchange rate regimes. the success of the economic and monetary union in europe can be measured not only by looking at all that what happened, but also by