samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
big to fail ” issue. we are confident that the banks in the commission of experts will continue to cooperate constructively on achieving a solution. we are aware that, for the big banks, the regulatory measures being discussed are associated with costs. however, first of all, these costs are primarily a reflection of the fact that a subsidy in the form of a de facto “ too big to fail ” guarantee will be reduced. yet since the cost to the taxpayer is reduced to the same extent, this does not constitute a cost to the economy as a whole. and second, alternative measures, such as the prohibition of business activities, would be associated with considerably higher costs for the banks. in addition, we are convinced that, in the long term, the big banks will also benefit from more stringent regulatory requirements. the most recent crisis showed that a stable financial system is a basic prerequisite for the long - term competitiveness of our financial centre. this is particularly true of wealth management, an important line of business for swiss banks. consequently, an appropriate solution to the “ too big to fail ” issue in switzerland could strengthen our banking system in the long term and ensure that it is well placed strategically.

monetary policy stance will continue to support the recovery in the euro area, it is essential that fiscal and structural policies strengthen the prospects for economic growth over the medium term. as regards fiscal policies, the european commission ’ s 2013 winter forecast reflects progress in reducing fiscal imbalances in the euro area. the euro area - wide general government deficit is expected to have declined from bis central bankers ’ speeches 4. 2 % of gdp in 2011 to 3. 5 % of gdp in 2012 and is projected to be reduced further to 2. 8 % of gdp this year. governments should build on this progress with a view to further restoring confidence in the sustainability of public finances. at the same time, fiscal consolidation must be part of a comprehensive structural reform agenda to improve the outlook for job creation, economic growth and debt sustainability. in the view of the governing council, it is of particular importance at this juncture to address the current high long - term and youth unemployment. to this end, further product and labour market reforms are needed to create new job opportunities by supporting a dynamic, flexible and competitive economic environment. we are now at your disposal for questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches
be done in several areas, such as raising the flexibility and adaptability of the individual euro area economies and paying close attention to cost competitiveness in the various economies. the achievements of emu and our monetary policy support the reforms that are urgently needed in many countries. we look forward to welcoming you wholeheartedly into the euro area. thank you very much for your attention.

caveat to this rule is that in situations where there is unusually high uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets, it could sometimes be unwise to add more uncertainty through unanticipated policy decisions. in her survey, petra geraats points out that transparency can have both information effects and incentive effects. one incentive effect which is not mentioned in the paper, but which i believe is very important in practice, is the effect transparency has on the internal decision process. this effect is difficult to detect for outside observers, but i have observed how transparency has changed the motivation and discipline of the economists within norges bank. by publishing our own interest rate forecast, each sector expert will see how his or her judgment might affect policy. moreover, by following the principle that what is communicated externally should reflect the internal decision process, we need to think extra hard about what we do internally. transparency makes the public better capable of evaluating the central bank ’ s analyses and policy assessments. if these are not of sufficient quality, we will be criticised ( for example by the norges bank watch, of which petra geraats was a member in 2004 ). public scrutiny disciplines the internal process and, i believe, results in better monetary policy.
the field on topics related to the digitalization of banking services, including presentations on how banks can strategically position themselves in rapidly changing financial markets, new paradigms for financial page 6 of 7 inclusion, risk based oversight and regulatory compliance and career development. you will have the benefit of an excellent team of resource persons, most of who are senior officials in the financial services industry in east africa, and who have come here to share their expertise with you. i am confident that the presentations and discussions in this banking school will offer you valuable insights and contribute to the development of your careers. thank you for listening. page 7 of 7

management function in the bou including the manner in which risk management issues in the bou should be reported to the board of directors of the bou. i would like to appreciate in a special way the bank of england and the deutsche bundesbank for providing resource persons for this workshop. ms. sue milton from the centre for central bank studies ( ccbs ) of the bank of england and mr. nobert rothe from the centre for technical central bank cooperation of the german ( ctcbs ) bundesbank are here because of the good relationship that exists between the bank of uganda and these two central banks. i am glad to report that this is not the first time that the two central banks have supported the bank of uganda. in february 2007, for example, ccbs and ctcbs facilitated a regional workshop on business continuity and risk management for senior managers, which were hosted by bank of uganda. participants who attended that workshop were from the central banks of kenya, tanzania and malawi. also some staff from the bou have attended seminars, workshops and other training arrangements organised by both these two central banks. therefore, i very much welcome sue milton and nobert rothe, and hope that they will find time during their visit to sample a few tourist attractions in entebbe, as well as kampala and its environs. it is my hope and belief that the outcome of the workshop will be an invaluable contribution to the ongoing efforts to establish sound programmes for the management of risks and business continuity. i also hope that this workshop will provide an opportunity for the board to assess better and to evaluate better the bank's performance in the areas of business continuity and risk management going forward. i wish you all fruitful deliberations.
. 5 2. 5 united states 1. 5 1. 5 euro area. 5. 5 united kingdom −. 5 jan−22 apr−22 jul−22 −. 5 oct−22 source : consensus economics. note : expected gdp growth in the monthly issues of consensus forecasts since the beginning of 2022 ; latest observation : september 2022.

a broadly similar picture. according to the median respondent in the ecb survey of monetary analysts conducted in late august, inflation is expected to stand at 4. 4 per cent, on average, in 2023 and at 2. 1 per cent in 2024. at the same time, the median household participating in the ecb consumers expectations surveys foresees inflation at 5 per cent in the next 12 months and at 3 per cent at 3 - year see neri et al. ( 2022 ). horizon. this latter level stands somewhat above those of market participants and economic experts, possibly reflecting a greater relevance of backward ‑ looking elements in the expectation formation mechanism of households. a more granular analysis shows that the upward revision of inflation expectation ( over all horizons ) has been more intense for less affluent households. the share of the most volatile inflation components, namely energy and food items, in these households ’ consumption basket is, however, much higher and may lead them to revise their expectations more frequently and significantly. in other words, the observed rise in expectation from household surveys may simply mirror what is happening in the energy and food sectors, and may therefore be reversed as soon as pressures on the price of these items diminish. moving on to wages, even though requests have been made in some countries for increases greater than those recorded in recent years, their growth in the euro area remains, as already mentioned, around 2 per cent ( net of one - off components ). in addition, the ecb forward - looking wage tracker points to a very gradual acceleration of wages in the last part of 2022 and in 2023 ( figure 5 ), although some tension may arise in countries where wages ( especially minimum wages ) react almost mechanically to actual inflation. my reading of these data makes me confident that, at the moment, there is no evidence that medium - term expectations are drifting away from the price stability objective, nor are there signs of pernicious spirals between prices and wages. indeed, the high level of inflation expectations in the coming quarters, reflecting the standard price growth inertia and the persistence of energy prices at very high levels, rapidly declines in the subsequent years, in line with the eurosystem / ecb ’ s projections as well as most others. 7 should energy prices prove to be higher than what is currently projected, their negative demand effects via purchasing - power and wealth losses would probably contribute to curbing actual and expected inflation and, in turn, wage requests
properly communicated to our constituency, the filipino public, through such documents as the inflation report and regular press statements. we welcome your comments on the contents of the report and hope that you will continue to actively participate in the public dialogue on the monetary policy process. thank you and good morning.

heartened by your show of support. as the economist adam smith once said, and i quote : “ civilized society stands at all times in need of the cooperation and assistance of great multitudes. ” bis central bankers ’ speeches it is our hope therefore that the same spirit of cooperation and collaboration will characterize our pursuit of continuing reforms in 2013 and the years ahead. and now, let us offer a toast to all of us coming together for an even stronger, more responsive, more inclusive, and more successful philippine banking system that will underpin a strong and vibrant philippine economy that will bring prosperity and a better quality of life to our country and our people. cheers! bis central bankers ’ speeches
medium to long term because of two factors : first, bulk of the country ’ s external debt have medium and long - term maturity, and second, they carry fixed interest rates. on the banking sector, the philippine banking system remains sound and stable. preliminary data as of end - november 2021 show that total assets of the banking system grew by 7. 0 percent year - on - year to p20. 4 trillion amid improving economic activity. asset expansion was mainly funded by deposits, which increased by 9. 2 percent to p15. 8 trillion.. banks remain profitable. as of end - september 2021, banks ’ net profit grew by 35. 8 percent yearon - year. return on assets ( roa ) was steady at 1. 0 percent, while return on equity ( roe ) rose to 8. 1 percent from 7. 9 percent in the previous year. credit activity has also improved. loans extended by universal and commercial banks rose 4. 6 percent in december, up for the fifth straight month. 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches banks are lending more to msmes following the bsp ’ s move to count loans to msmes as alternative compliance with the reserve requirement. as of the week ending 20 january 2022, p209. 2 billion worth of loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises ( msmes ) were used as alternative compliance to the reserve requirement, up from p8. 7 billion reported in april 2020. to further support msmes, the bsp extended the effectivity of some relief measures until end2022, including the increase in the single borrower ’ s limit from 25 to 30 percent. asset quality of banks remains sound. the non - performing loan ratio of the philippine banking system fell to 3. 99 percent in december from 4. 35 percent in november. based on industry feedback, banks expect their npl ratios to remain relatively low and loan - loss provisions to stay high. this is consistent with the bsp ’ s projection that npl ratio of banks will remain in the single - digit territory in the coming years, well below the double - digit figures seen in the aftermath of the 1997 asian financial crisis. the financial institutions strategic transfer or fist act serves as a standby mechanism for banks to dispose their non - performing assets. this law, complemented by recently issued guidelines on the prudential treatment of restructured loans and provisioning requirements, will support effective management of banks ’ npls. banks are well capitalized.

budget act for 2015 stipulates that €2. 5 billion of the bundesbank ’ s profit will be used for budgetary financing, and excess amounts will be used for debt repayment. bis central bankers ’ speeches
already working on this. norges bank is particularly focused on improving the common infrastructure for payment services, which will provide a solid foundation for competition, innovation and security in the payments market. our ambition is to contribute in making a sound norwegian payment system even better, in dialogue and collaboration with the industry. 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches

. and already next week – on 9 november – we will be hosting an open webinar about the project. further to my remarks on cbdc, i would also like to comment briefly on the central bank money we already have, namely cash. in order to fulfil its functions in the payment system and contribute to efficiency, it is important that cash is both available and easy to use, ie that the public has real opportunities to obtain and use cash. norges bank will continue to issue cash and work to facilitate its use as long as this is appropriate and cost - effective for society. real - time payments a common infrastructure can be regarded as a collective good that benefits us all. payment solutions should therefore build on a common underlying infrastructure that is secure and fast and operates at low cost. providers can then compete freely for customers through various applications and interfaces. norwegian banks have traditionally agreed on good common solutions for the payment system infrastructure, but owing to developments in technology and market structure in recent years, payment services have increasingly become a competitive arena. customer contact through payment services has gained increased strategic importance for banks and other providers. at the same time, this may have weakened incentives to develop common solutions. real - time payments are payments where funds are available in the payee ’ s account within seconds of payment initiation – 24 / 7. a well - functioning solution for real - time payments is an important part of an efficient payment system. we expect the share of real - time payments to increase in the years ahead. chart 6 real - time payments norway ’ s banking sector established a common infrastructure for real - time payments ( called “ straks ” ) in 2013. the solution had some shortcomings and it took many years before it was adopted by several of the larger banks. an improved solution, called “ straks 2. 0 ”, was introduced in 2020 and is used by all the banks. straks 2. 0 is a clear advance on the previous solution. before straks 2. 0, the payee ’ s account was credited before interbank settlement had been completed. the payee ’ s bank ran the risk that the funds from the payer ’ s bank might not arrive as agreed. for all practical purposes, this risk has now been removed, with liquidity set aside at the central bank to guarantee settlement. although the removal of settlement risk is a positive step, this is not enough. the real - time payment infrastructure must be further developed.
public for the first time in a separate section of the regular report on nbs activities. we are taking part in this gathering because of our profound conviction that today ’ s topic is essential for the quality of transition in serbia. please note that we are more than willing to give our modest contribution to all other actions and ideas! thank you for your attention!

jorgovanka tabakovic : overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in serbia introductory speech by dr jorgovanka tabakovic, governor of the national bank of serbia, at the presentation of the inflation report – may 2016, belgrade, 24 may 2016. * * * ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the presentation of the may inflation report. as always, we will give you an overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends and our expectations for the period ahead. let me start and conclude my speech by discussing the same topical news! we have revised our gdp growth projection for 2016 from 1. 8 % upwards. we now expect that the serbian economy will end this year with a growth between 2. 3 % and 2. 5 %. allow me to underline that, given the current movements, it is far more likely that the year - end gdp growth rate will be at the upper bound of the projection range, i. e. at 2. 5 %. and it is not that we are being overly optimistic ; this projection is based on models, mathematics and indicators. if we compare the latest macroeconomic data with those presented in the february report, it is evident that the economic recovery of the republic of serbia has continued, and more importantly, that the growth is based on long - term sustainable foundations. and that is why the macroeconomic outlook for the period ahead has been revised upwards relative to the previous report. in the first three months of the year, fiscal deficit contracted by a quarter from the same period last year and equalled 1. 7 % of the estimated gdp, as compared to 2. 4 % in the same period a year earlier. the current account deficit of the balance of payments has more than halved compared to the corresponding period in 2015 – it equals 3. 3 % of the estimated gdp and remains fully covered by foreign direct investments. our fiscal outlook has improved in response to a sustainable rise in tax revenue, while the narrowing of the current account deficit has been driven by more favourable trends in external trade. last time we met at the presentation of the february report, we expressed no doubts as to the continuation of growth in exports and economic activity in the coming years. indeed, the growth has continued up, and has done so at an even faster pace than expected. export growth, measured in euro terms, was exceptionally strong – it came at 13. 4 % yеаr - on - year in the first quarter, and is without any doubt
declined substantially from the end of february through the middle of march and have generally remained steady thereafter. this reflects the bank of japan ’ s ample provision of funds through contracts that mature after the fiscal year - end as well as the progress in implementing the financial - system stabilization measures. it should be noted, however, that the levels of the above rates and premium are still high compared with those prevailing before autumn 1997, which can be attributed to the continuing cautious attitudes of market participants toward credit risk. meanwhile, with the releases of weak economic indicators, long - term government bond yields have fluctuated in a historically low range and stock prices have been declining since the end of march. with respect to monetary aggregates, the growth in money stock continued to be rather high in february due to the substantial shift of funds away from investment trusts. meanwhile, private bank lending remains sluggish. however, with an increase in corporate financing via the capital market, a substantial fall in overall corporate fund - raising seems to have been avoided. banks remain cautious in extending loans with a view to improving their mediumterm profitability and financial soundness. fund - raising costs of firms continued to be high according to their credit standing. in such circumstances, some firms, especially small and medium - sized firms, have been facing difficult financing conditions and this effect on the economy continues to warrant a careful monitoring.

less fresh food is projected to be in the ranges of minus 0. 6 to minus 0. 4 percent for fiscal 2020, 0. 2 to 0. 5 percent for fiscal 2021, and 0. 5 to 0. 8 percent for fiscal 2022. of course, this outlook entails extremely high uncertainties, since it depends on the consequences of covid - 19 and their impact on domestic and overseas economies. if the strict public health measures are reinstated, economic activity could be constrained significantly again. moreover, attention should be paid to whether the second - round effects of a shock from covid19 will significantly depress the economy. specifically, whether the liquidity problem will shift to a solvency one and affect the financial system, thereby further pushing down the real economy, should be monitored. it also matters whether firms ’ and households ’ growth expectations will decline, leading to cautious spending attitudes. at present, it seems possible to avoid these risks owing to the government ’ s and the bank ’ s responses, but future developments warrant attention. lastly, let me touch on the bank ’ s thinking on future conduct of monetary policy. the bank considers it important to continue providing support for financing and maintaining stability in financial markets by conducting the three measures, which have been effective. since the economic and financial impact of covid - 19 is highly uncertain, the bank, for the time being, will closely monitor this impact and not hesitate to do whatever it takes as a central bank if necessary. thank you. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches