, those with historically higher shares of flexible rate mortgages also experienced stronger contractions of consumption following a tightening in monetary policy ( chart 23, right panel ). [ 27 ] a generalised increase in the share of flexible rates of mortgages could thus translate into an amplified monetary policy transmission mechanism to consumption. at the same time, the significant amount of excess savings amassed by euro area households during the covid - 19 pandemic ( chart 24 ) will continue to act as a buffer for consumption during this period of high inflation and will exert downward pressure on the price of capital. both effects could thus dampen the transmission of higher policy rates to the economy and inflation. however, support for higher demand may only be partial : first, a large share of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic accrued to the wealthiest households with a lower propensity to consume and, second, a substantial part of the excess savings is likely to be reabsorbed via weaker borrowing dynamics and – among lower - income households – to finance the price increases for essentials like food and heating. in this context, it is also important to keep in mind that euro area households generally have lower levels of indebtedness than those in the united states, which may explain part of the difference in transmission in the euro area compared with the united states. chart 23 fixed - rate mortgage share and consumption response to contractionary monetary policy shock ( left panel : share of variable mortgages as a percentage of new loans ; right panel : x - axis : share of fixed mortgages as a percentage of total new business, y - axis : peak reaction of consumption ( percentage ) after a 25 basis point tightening of the policy rate ) sources : ecb ( mir ), ecb staff calculations and corsetti et al. ( 2020 ). notes : the right panel shows peak impacts of monetary policy shock on consumption and average share of fixed mortgages in 2007 - 15 as reported in corsetti et al. ( 2020 ). the latest observation is for december 2022. chart 24 household excess savings during the pandemic ( left panel : household excess savings flows, eur billions ( seasonally adjusted ), right panel : stock of accumulated household excess savings ( eur billions, cumulative increase since 2019q4 ) sources : eurostat, ecb staff calculations. notes : excess household savings flows are calculated by multiplying the difference between the actual savings rate and the savings rate in 2019q4 for

12month - ahead expectations for house price growth, amid tightening financing conditions. the share of respondents expecting tighter credit access ( for any type of credit ) peaked in october 2022 at almost onethird of survey respondents. in parallel, the share of respondents expecting to apply for a new mortgage over the next 12 months declined to 8. 9 per cent in october 2022, from 10. 3 per cent in april 2022. understandably in a higher - rate environment, the likelihood of applying for mortgage refinancing ( by existing mortgagors ) decreased to 12. 2 per cent in october 2022, from 18. 1 per cent in october 2021 ( chart 11, right panel ). chart 11 mean interest rate expectations ( left panel ), credit tightness indicators ( right panel ). ( left panel : percentage, right panel : percentage of respondents ) sources : ces. notes : left panel : weighted estimates. mean interest rate expectations for mortgages and savings over time. the question reads : “ in 12 months from now, what do you think will be the interest rate on mortgages ( on savings accounts ) in the country you currently live in? ”. the latest observations are for december 2022. right panel : weighted estimates. share of respondents out of all mortgagers who expect i ) harder credit access in twelve months ’ time ( blue line ), ii ) to apply for a new mortgage ( yellow line ), and iii ) to refinance their mortgage over the next 12 months ( red line ). the latest observations are for october 2022, and december 2022 for credit access. households on an adjustable - rate mortgage – which accounts for roughly 8 per cent of households – are particularly feeling the bite of higher interest rates ( chart 12, left panel ). since july 2022 the share of households reporting that lower interest rates would be best for their household has begun rising, mirrored by a declining share of those preferring higher interest rates since september 2022. the upward trend is particularly visible among households with an adjustable - rate mortgage, who are most directly affected by the rise in interest rates. conversely, households with a fixed - rate mortgage, who are not as immediately exposed to higher interest rates, hardly changed their attitude towards interest rate changes. expectations for spending from respondents with an adjustable - rate mortgage are also more sensitive to changes in expected interest rates. on average, respondents tend to reduce their expected real spending growth when they increase their expectations about future