gabriel makhlouf : opening remarks - financial industry forum opening remarks by mr gabriel makhlouf, governor of the central bank of ireland, at the financial industry forum, dublin, 21 april 2023. * * * good morning everyone, welcome back to the central bank for our third meeting of the financial industry forum. we have a good agenda ahead of us and i look forward to hearing from you all. as i've said before, engaging with you – our key industry stakeholders – is of critical importance to our work, and engagement with our stakeholders from across the community is at the heart of our strategy. the objective is a better understanding of the issues we all face. as part of today's meeting, we will discuss the key themes emerging from the forum's subgroups. last october, you asked to nominate alternates to attend the subgroups which resulted in 63 representatives from 14 bodies attending meetings. it's provided us with considerable scope, diversity of perspective and experience, and will contribute greatly to a strong and meaningful platform for shared, strategic dialogue. the current macroeconomic conjecture some of us have just returned from attending the spring meetings of the world bank and international monetary fund's ( imf ) spring meetings in washington dc. so you might find it useful if i gave you a quick overview of some of the issues that arose there. mark cassidy, our director of financial stability, will give a more detailed presentation shortly. the discussions in washington were dominated by the complex challenges facing the global economy including : economic and macro - financial implications of geopolitical fragmentation ; heightened financial stability risks in the wake of recent market turbulence with focus on both banks and non - banks ; policy making in a high interest rate environment ; and how to tackle soaring public debt. as you are all aware, the financial system is being challenged by the stresses that are being brought upon it by necessary monetary policy tightening. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches since the events in the united states in early march, we have been focused on potential financial stability implications, the possible indirect effects and channels of contagion. risks in the non - bank sector may arise especially from liquidity mismatch and leverage, which could adversely affect market conditions should risks materialise. the imf's sluggish outlook for the global economy reflects the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, russia's war in ukraine and growing

meeting - by - meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. in particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. we are not pre - committing to a particular rate path. the decisions taken today are set out in a press release available on our website. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches i will now outline in more detail how we see the economy and inflation developing and will then explain our assessment of financial and monetary conditions. economic activity the economy grew by 0. 4 per cent in the third quarter, exceeding expectations. growth was driven mainly by an increase in consumption, partly reflecting one - off factors that boosted tourism over the summer, and by firms building up inventories. but the latest information suggests it is losing momentum. surveys indicate that manufacturing is still contracting and growth in services is slowing. firms are holding back their investment spending in the face of weak demand and a highly uncertain outlook. exports are also weak, with some european industries finding it challenging to remain competitive. the labour market remains resilient. employment grew by 0. 2 per cent in the third quarter, again by more than expected. the unemployment rate remained at its historical low of 6. 3 per cent in october. meanwhile, demand for labour continues to weaken. the job vacancy rate declined to 2. 5 % in the third quarter, 0. 8 percentage points below its peak, and surveys also point to fewer jobs being created in the current quarter. the economy should strengthen over time, although more slowly than previously expected. the rise in real wages should strengthen household spending. more affordable credit should boost consumption and investment. provided trade tensions do not escalate, exports should support the recovery as global demand rises. fiscal and structural policies should make the economy more productive, competitive and resilient. it is crucial to swiftly follow up, with concrete and ambitious structural policies, on mario draghi's proposals for enhancing european competitiveness and enrico letta's proposals for empowering the single market. we welcome the european commission's assessment of governments'medium - term plans for fiscal and structural policies, as part of the eu's revised economic governance framework. governments should now focus on implementing their commitments under this framework fully and without delay. this will help bring down budget deficits and debt ratios on a sustained basis, while prioritising growth - enhancing