michelle w bowman : welcoming remarks - " toward an inclusive recovery " welcoming remarks ( via webcast ) by ms michelle w bowman, member of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at " toward an inclusive recovery ", a research seminar sponsored by the board of governors of the federal reserve system, washington dc, 20 october 2022. * * * welcome, and thank you for joining us to discuss topics important to the nation's economy. this research seminar is part of the federal reserve's series of events called " toward an inclusive recovery. " today's seminar, hosted by the board of governors, will focus on how the covid - 19 pandemic affected educational outcomes and the subsequent impact we anticipate for transitions to the labor force. we have invited accomplished researchers to discuss their work - and what practical lessons might be drawn from it - that could help inform community development practice and public policy considerations. as i am sure you are aware, the pandemic created significant disruptions for our students and the education system. at the onset of the pandemic, steps taken to slow the spread of covid - 19 resulted in widespread closures of businesses and schools. many, myself included, were immediately concerned about the negative effects on education from changes that included shifting to virtual instruction, lack of access to technology, and changes to the accessibility and provision of childcare. it is critical to consider that access to education at every step along a student's learning path serves as a pipeline into the labor force and enables future generations of americans to participate and thrive in our dynamic labor market. the disruption of education throughout the pandemic undoubtedly led to an absence of workers in the labor force, creating a shortage that held back the early economic recovery. education outcomes, including learning losses and achievements, take time to measure, aggregate, and analyze. as we enter the fourth academic year affected by the pandemic, data on student performance are becoming more available. much of this early data confirms our initial concerns. for example, early test scores show that throughout the country nine - year - olds suffered a decline in learning outcomes during the pandemic. but other data also indicate that learning losses were unequal and disproportionately affected low - performing students and low - income students. it is likely that the sudden shift to online classes contributed to the learning declines. according to the board's 2020 survey of household economics and decisionmaking ( the shed ),

fixed investment continues at a similar pace for the remainder of the year, we estimate its share in gdp to reach around 22 %. this is an important assumption for creating a basis for the acceleration of economic growth to around 4 % in the medium run. taking into account the further improvement in the business environment, favourable monetary conditions, faster implementation of infrastructure projects and positive labour market trends, we estimate that growth will be driven by domestic demand, investment and household consumption. we also expect that exports will retain double - digit growth rates on the back of earlier investment and the rise in external demand. we expect higher investment to also push up imports of equipment and intermediate goods. chart 9 gdp growth projection ( y - o - y rates, in % ) i source : nbs. ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i * * * ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, i would like to conclude the first part of the conference with the actual and expected movement of inflation and the monetary policy measures adopted. in year - on - year terms, inflation has slowed down since the start of the year. the slowdown was anticipated and stated in the previous issues of the report, though it was stronger than expected. this resulted from lower dinar - denominated import prices due to low inflation in the international environment and the dinar ’ s appreciation in the previous period, and from the still low food production costs. that inflationary pressures are still low is suggested also by core inflation, which declined to 0. 8 % year - on - year in march and april, its lowest level since changes in consumer prices have been used as a measure of inflation. compared to the previous inflation report, short - term inflation expectations fell even more – to 2. 5 % for the financial and 2. 8 % for the corporate sector, remaining anchored within the target corridor. these are the main reasons why the new medium - term inflation projection is somewhat lower than the previous one. chart 10 contribution of cpi components to y - o - y inflation ( in pp ) chart 11 one - year ahead inflation expectations ( y - o - y rates, in % ) corporate sector financial sector * financial sector - bloomberg - 1 - 3 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 petroleum product prices administered prices nonfood core inflation processed food prices fruit and vegetable prices sources :