, reaching the mto ; ( v ) consolidation effort exclusively on the expenditure side ; ( vi ) increase in the implicit interest rate on public debt to 4. 4 % in 2020 ( 3. 9 % in 2012 ). source : banco de portugal. ii. the post - troika period the challenges that lie ahead after the conclusion of the economic and financial assistance programme are not smaller than those faced in the course of the programme. more specifically, we must be able to answer the following questions : how can we ensure that the return to the financial markets is not reversed? how can we ensure sustained and balanced economic growth of the portuguese economy within the euro area? as mentioned by the president and mr. buti, to answer these questions certain conditions must be fulfilled both at domestic and external level ( figure 6 ). at domestic level, and in the short run, the adjustment process of the portuguese economy must go forward. this means, inter alia, to proceed with the consolidation of public accounts, improve banking system profitability, push on with the household and corporate balance sheet adjustment, create a social security network for long - term unemployed and to set up conditions inducing potential output growth in portugal. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 6 conditions for a successful exit of the programme looking further ahead, a new institutional framework must be established, on the basis of a broad consensus, fostering behaviours consistent with the maintenance of fundamental macroeconomic balances and the economy ’ s competitive capacity. in this context, the first point to have in mind is social cohesion. the ongoing sectoral shift in the portuguese economy suggests that unemployment rates should remain high over a protracted period of time. safeguarding social cohesion is key so we can manage unemployment in line with its structural nature. in fact, a mechanical exercise conducted in banco de portugal shows that an 8 per cent annual growth of external demand up to 2020 would have a cumulative reducing impact of 7 p. p. on the unemployment rate ( to around 11 per cent ), which means that the solution to our unemployment problem does not lie on the demand side. we must be able to free up and generate entrepreneurial skills, attract foreign direct investment and boost our productive sector. at the same time, we must create support schemes to re - train long - term unemployed with a view to increase their employability. in addition to social cohesion, there are two other conditions which i find important. the first is the creation of a political consensus on

come up with minimum benchmarks to guide its application and regulation. these may include : the need for creation of enabling environments for private sector initiatives to thrive ; continuous private - public sector dialogue to facilitate formulation of innovative policy solutions ; and balancing access with stability to safeguard integrity and stability of the financial system. further, today ’ s scenario building process will benefit a lot from the lessons of the four scenarios of the scenario building 2020 by cgap and dfid. these are : ( a ) existence of untapped opportunities in the environment that can be exploited through innovation. ( b ) the fact that opportunities are available everywhere including post - conflict countries which can potentially be exploited through branchless banking. ( c ) successful branchless banking regimes may be vulnerable to disruptions like court decisions and other underlying forces which make branch - intensive strategies unviable. however, data - enabled phones may present the best strategy to mitigate such risks. ( d ) successful transition to a cashless society may present a big challenge to successful mobile phone money transfer service providers, regulators, and the economy. ladies and gentlemen : i would like to reiterate that while the central bank welcomes innovative products, it evaluates all such products to ensure safety and efficiency concerns are adequately addressed. the central bank has the necessary capacity to properly evaluate and appraise technology driven financial services to ensure they meet international standards and provide comprehensive consumer protection. finally, may i assure you that the central bank will always strive to provide an enabling legal and regulatory framework to encourage innovations by all players in our financial sector in order to enhance access to financial services. in this regard, we will continue to work with stakeholders as we are doing today to put in place an enabling environment for business to thrive. with these remarks, ladies and gentlemen, it is now my pleasant duty to declare this workshop open.