directly in terms of greater issuance of corporate bonds. in terms of the transmission mechanism, we introduced full allotment for our monetary policy tenders, allowing banks to access all the liquidity they need. we also introduced measures to encourage banks to lend. we took the interest rate on our deposit facility into negative territory, meaning that banks have to pay to leave cash deposited with us. in addition, we introduced a range of targeted long - term repos designed to explicitly reward banks for increasing lending. evidence that our monetary policy is working let me now turn to the current economic situation in the euro area, and what it means for the monetary policy outlook. the monetary stimulus put in place by the ecb is clearly working, supporting a broad - based and resilient recovery in the euro area. since the beginning of 2015, euro area gdp growth has been solid in every quarter. the preliminary flash estimate for the fourth quarter of 2016 is 0. 5 %, with similar growth expected in the first quarter of this year. the december eurosystem staff projections for gdp growth were 1. 7 % for this year, and 1. 6 % for both 2018 and 2019. the economic sentiment indicator rose in january to its highest level since 2011. sentiment improved in industry, services and the household sector, mainly driven by improved sentiment regarding future economic conditions. new industrial orders increased in november, with a notable pick - up in new export orders over the past year. more broadly, global activity and trade gathered positive momentum in the second half of 2016. the recovery has also supported employment growth in the euro area. the unemployment rate fell to 9. 6 % in december, its lowest rate since may 2009. over four million more europeans are employed now than was the case three years ago. there are signs, too, that our measures to restore the monetary policy transmission mechanism and unblock the flow of credit to the economy are taking hold. lending rates have steadily declined throughout the euro area and the dispersion of rates across countries has narrowed. 4 credit provision continues to strengthen. annual growth in credit to euro area households increased in december to 2. 0 % and growth in credit to businesses rose to 2. 3 % – the highest growth rates in more than four years. lower lending rates and the recovery in activity have bolstered corporate profitability, with a consequent increase in investment. inflation has also increased. the flash estimate for euro area annual hicp inflation in january is 1. 8

guy debelle : the outlook for the australian economy opening keynote speech by mr guy debelle, deputy governor of the reserve bank of australia, at the cfo forum, sydney, 15 may 2018. * * * thanks to lynne cockerell for her help in preparing this speech. today i would like to talk about the bank ’ s outlook for the economy. we published this in the statement on monetary policy ( smp ) earlier this month. 1 this set of forecasts was little changed from the previous set of forecasts we released three months earlier. this is because the economy, both domestically and globally, has been evolving generally in line with our expectations. when reading through the bank ’ s forecasts, i think it is useful to avoid false precision. an important question to ask is : are these revisions to the bank ’ s outlook consequential for the monetary policy decision? similarly you can ask, do i think these changes affect my own decisions about my household or my business? a tenth or two of a percentage point here or there on the outlook for gdp or inflation is unlikely to matter that much for any of those decisions. often, these revisions reflect the new information that has come to hand over the previous quarter. this leads us to reassess the starting point for our forecasts of where the economy is then likely to go. in making this assessment, we ask whether the incoming data have been viewchanging or view - validating. over the previous three months ( and, indeed, the three months before that too ), the data have generally been view - validating. the forecasts that are published can best be characterised as the modal forecast for the economy. that is, they are the path for the economy which we think is most likely to occur. but there are a number of risks to that outlook. the smp talks about some of those uncertainties too. today i will also spend some time drawing out some of the issues around those uncertainties. 2 the central forecast as i just said, the forecasts we have just published are little changed from those we published in february. table 1 shows the bank ’ s outlook for gdp growth, the unemployment rate and inflation until june 2020. this is generally the time horizon that is relevant for the board ’ s deliberations on monetary policy. the forecasts embody a number of technical assumptions. these include that the cash rate 1 / 13 bis central bankers'speeches evolves broadly in line with