institute for international economics, january. board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2017 ). “ fomc issues addendum to the policy normalization principles and plans, ” press release, june 14. — — — — ( 2018a ). “ federal open market committee reaffirms its “ statement on longer - run goals and monetary policy strategy, ” press release, january 31. — — — — ( 2018b ). monetary policy report ( pdf ). washington : board of governors, february 23. brainard, lael ( 2015 ). “ normalizing monetary policy when the neutral interest rate is low, ” speech delivered at the stanford institute for economic policy research, stanford, california, december 1. — — — — ( 2016 ). “ the ‘ new normal ’ and what it means for monetary policy, ” speech delivered at the chicago council on global affairs, chicago, september 12. — — — — ( 2017 ). “ understanding the disconnect between employment and inflation with a low neutral rate, ” speech delivered at the economic club of new york, new york, september 5. congressional budget office ( 2018 ). bipartisan budget act of 2018 : cost estimate. 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches ( pdf ) washington : cbo, february 8. kiley, michael t. ( 2015 ). “ low inflation in the united states : a summary of recent research, ” feds notes. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, november 23. kiley, michael t., and john m. roberts ( 2017 ). “ monetary policy in a low interest rate world ( pdf ), " brookings papers on economic activity, spring, pp. 317 – 396. nakata, taisuke, and sebastian schmidt ( 2016 ). “ the risk - adjusted monetary policy rule, ” finance and economics discussion series 2016 – 061. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, august. simon, john, troy matheson, and damiano sandri ( 2013 ). “ the dog that didn ’ t bark : has inflation been muzzled or was it just sleeping? ( pdf ) ” chapter 3 in world economic outlook : hopes, realities, risks. washington : international monetary fund, april. 1 see various issues of the international monetary fund ( imf ) world economic outlook and world economic outlook ( weo ) updates. 2 see board of governors ( 2018b ). 3 the national financial conditions

index is available on the federal reserve bank of chicago ’ s website a t www. chicagofed. org / publications / nfci / index. other indexes of financial conditions, such as the indexes published by the federal reserve banks of kansas city and st. louis, tell a similar story. 4 for example, the imf 2018 weo updates ( see note 2 ) estimates that the tax cut legislation will raise the level of u. s. gdp 1 - 1 / 4 percent by 2020. 5 the congressional budget office ( 2018 ) estimates that increased spending caps will allow additional spending worth about 3 / 4 percent of gdp in fiscal year 2019. 6 see brainard ( 2017 ). 7 see board of governors ( 2018a ). 8 see, for example, kiley and roberts ( 2017 ), nakata and schmidt ( 2016 ), and brainard ( 2015, 2016 ). 9 see blanchard ( 2016 ) and simon, matheson, and sandri ( 2013 ). 10 over the 12 months through january, average hourly earnings were up 2. 9 percent relative to a year earlier, the highest 12 - month change in almost nine years. the employment cost index rose 2. 6 percent last year. 11 see board of governors ( 2018b ). 12 as laid out in board of governors ( 2017 ), the caps determining the degree of reinvestment of maturing securities in the system open market account are increasing gradually. the caps on the monthly runoff in the portfolio are expected to reach their maximum levels of $ 30 billion for treasury securities and $ 20 billion for agency debt and mortgage - backed securities later this year. the actual pace of runoff will vary, however, depending on the volume of securities maturing in any given month. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches