and fabian winkler ( 2020 ), “ how robust are makeup strategies to key alternative assumptions? ” finance and economics discussion series 2020 - 069 ( washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, august ), https : / / doi. org / 10. 17016 / feds. 2020. 069. see don kim, cait walsh, and min wei ( 2019 ), “ tips from tips : update and discussions, ” feds notes ( washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, may 21 ), - 12 making those adjustments, tips - based 5 - and 10 - year inflation expectations were 1. 41 percent and 1. 66 percent, respectively, on the final day of the third quarter, up from the lows experienced in march but well below their historical average. finally, it is useful to consult measures of underlying trend inflation. 15 a variety of estimates using time - series models suggest that underlying trend inflation may have moved down by as much as 1 / 2 percentage point over the past decade. 16 it is difficult to anticipate how long it will take to achieve the conditions set out in the forward guidance. the september summary of economic projections shows that most participants do not currently anticipate that the policy rate will depart from its lower bound by the end of 2023. when it does lift off, the policy rate could be expected to change only gradually, reflecting the commitment to remain accommodative until inflation has moderately exceeded 2 percent for some time. of course, the pace of the https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / econres / notes / feds - notes / tips - from - tips - update - and - discussions20190521. htm. see lael brainard ( 2017 ), “ understanding the disconnect between employment and inflation with a low neutral rate, ” speech delivered at the economic club of new york, new york, september 5, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20170905a. htm. stock and watson introduced an estimate of trend inflation that assumed time - varying volatility. cecchetti and others provided an update of that model that estimated trend inflation for core pce prices in 2017 as about 1 - 1 / 2 percent in the past few years, compared with readings above 2 percent in the 2006 – 08 period ( see figure 4. 1

sound banking practices. 9 this includes, for example, waiving certain fees, easing restrictions on check - cashing, expanding availability of credit, providing alternative service options, and offering alternative payment options. prudent efforts to modify terms on new or existing loans will receive favorable cra consideration. in addition, financial institutions will receive cra consideration for community development activities, e. g., activities that help to revitalize or stabilize low - or moderate - income geographies such as support for food services and digital access, as well as lending, investment and service activities that support health care and small businesses, particularly for low - and moderate - income individuals or communities. in terms of supervisory focus, the fed has prioritized monitoring to evaluate the impact on consumers to ensure that banks work in good faith with consumers, apply fair treatment and mitigate consumer harm. we are monitoring consumer loan deferrals and modifications and corresponding servicing activities to ensure banks'responsiveness. we are also monitoring consumers'needs regarding access to funds, including stimulus payments, through traditional deposit accounts, as well as for individuals without a traditional banking relationship who utilize pre - paid cards. conclusions taken together, these steps demonstrate the fed's strong commitment to help the u. s. banking system support the u. s. economy and protect consumers during the covid - 19 pandemic. we are aware, however, that many low - and moderate - income and minority communities remain severely impacted. the regional partnership between the new york fed and socially responsible providers of capital continues to inform our understanding of the needs for access to credit for these critical small businesses. we will continue to work with you to ensure that the financial system acts as a source of strength to support all segments of the u. s. economy. thank you. 1agencies issue revised interagency statement on loan modifications by financial institutions working with customers affected by the coronavirus 2federal reserve provides additional information to financial institutions on how its supervisory approach is adjusting in light of the coronavirus 3agencies announce changes to the community bank leverage ratio 4the fed has also taken action to support the provision of credit by larger institutions. federal banking agencies provide banks additional flexibility to support households and businesses and federal reserve board announces temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio rule to ease strains in the treasury market resulting from the coronavirus and increase banking organizations ’ ability to provide credit to households and businesses 5federal reserve actions to support the flow of credit to