output going forward, as well as the future growth rate of the economy and the trend for inflation. we use judgment to decide on a course of action, keeping in mind that the " ship " of the economy responds slowly to a change in the policy interest rate, and that there could be headwinds or tailwinds to deal with. and because we get monthly data on inflation and output, we can correct our course, if necessary, on subsequent policy interest rate announcement dates. let me expand on this. in conducting monetary policy, the bank uses three main strategies to reduce uncertainty. first, we use a variety of models to produce economic projections and to examine alternative assumptions about key variables. the use of multiple models helps to provide comprehensive for further details on uncertainty in the conduct of monetary policy, see p. jenkins and d. longworth. 2002. " monetary policy and uncertainty. " bank of canada review ( summer 2002 ). available at : http : / / www. bankofcanada. ca / en / review / 2002 / longworth _ e. pdf. p. l. bernstein. 2006. " risk : the hottest four - letter word in financial markets. " in global perspectives on investment management : learning from the leaders, 221, edited by r. n. sullivan and j. j. diermeier. charlottesville, va : cfa institute. information and analysis, and helps to guard against policy errors that could result from relying on a single economic model. the models we use range from single - equation indicator models to multiequation reduced - form models to dynamic stochastic general - equilibrium models, such as our newest model of the canadian economy, totem. 4 the second strategy we use to reduce uncertainty is to bring together a variety of information and indicators before we make an interest rate decision. these include both quantitative and qualitative measures covering international and domestic economic developments, the regional business outlook, monetary and credit conditions, and the views and expectations of financial market participants. as we sift through this information, we try to look through the noise and discern fundamental trends. we look carefully at both corroborating and non - corroborating evidence. finally, we apply judgment. the bank of canada does this by means of a committee that debates the issues and comes to a decision. interestingly, research suggests that the composition of a committee and the structure of a meeting can affect the quality of decision making, both in central

calls for policy responses at the national level but also at the international level. it also calls for the consideration that such policy responses may have implications that extend beyond the domestic borders, benefits may also be derived from cross border coordination of policy responses to increase the prospects of achieving the desired outcomes. our conference today focuses on the impact of economic and financial globalisation on the role of central banks, as well as to assess how central banks can effectively contribute to promote stability in this environment. in particular, the conference will be looking at the implications and challenges that globalisation brings to the mandate of the central banks in preserving monetary and financial stability. the pace and nature of globalisation has also brought significant stress to the international financial architecture. the current financial crisis has highlighted the vulnerabilities in the international financial architecture, leading to renewed thinking about the reform of the global financial system. tonight, joseph stiglitz will be speaking on " strong institutions for growth and crisis management ". tomorrow, we will address some of the specific management challenges central banks face in a globalised environment. we will discuss some recent developments of central banks'cooperation and the areas for reform of the international financial architecture. ladies and gentlemen, the crisis presents an opportunity for us to re - evaluate, promote and embrace sustainable long terms solutions. our focus is for the discussion to contribute to the means through which central banks can contribute more effectively in promoting stability and economic growth. this conference will provide an opportunity to reassess our traditional views on many of the issues before us. on this note, i wish you a very engaging and substantive conference.