job - to - job transition rate unionisation rate 0. 027 * * ( 0. 010 ) constant 0. 299 2. 876 * 1. 239 - 1. 249 0. 432 - 0. 125 ( 0. 794 ) ( 1. 347 ) ( 1. 459 ) ( 0. 676 ) ( 0. 800 ) ( 0. 288 ) observations adjusted r - squared 0. 603 0. 566 0. 604 0. 617 0. 644 0. 856 newey - west robust standard errors in parentheses * * p < 0. 01, * p < 0. 05 sources : ons, barclays and bank calculations. notes : estimation period is 1992q2 - 2018q2 for specifications 1, 2 & 3. for specifications 4 & 5 the sample begins in 1995q1 due to data limitations. the dependent variable for these models is the four - quarter growth rate of whole economy total average weekly earnings. as such, the residuals from these regressions will be serially correlated, and so we report newey - west standard errors. specification 6 is run on annual data back to 1892 ; the dependent variable is annual nominal wage growth. trend productivity growth is calculated as a five - year trailing average. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches

of performance records will be invaluable in establishing how robust borrowers are to different economic circumstances. in this way, economic downturns when they come should not prove too much of a shock to the ratings scales. of course, i do not wish to sound complacent regarding the avoidance of'procyclicality '. capital is after all meant to be a cushion against volatility, also referred to as'unexpected'loss, but measuring the unexpected is something of an oxymoron. some of our researchers at the bank of england recently reviewed the usefulness of various predictive models of banking problems, but unfortunately our conclusion at the moment is that banking crises are each unique in its own way. in the area of financial stability at least, there appears to be some merit in sam goldwyn's admonition that one should'never make forecasts, particularly about the future '. so whilst we may be able to ensure that the banking system is protected against the normal ups and downs of a developed economy, more extreme events will continue to require tailored solutions. changing composition of bond markets i have speculated on the possible long - term effect of the new basel framework on securities markets. i want briefly to touch on a third topic and that is the significant change that the markets seem likely to face in the composition of the bonds being issued. a recent bis report on trends in collateral in wholesale financial markets shows that the share of us government bonds within the dollar bond markets decreased from over 44 % to under 29 % between march 1994 and september 2000, with the increase mainly in bonds issued by financial institutions and government sponsored agencies. worldwide, the share of government bonds decline from 53 % to under 45 %. of the g10 countries, only in japan is the share of government bonds on the increase. in the us, the congressional budget office recently projected that the government debt might be repaid as early as 2006. from a macro - economic perspective, sound government finances are clearly desirable. smaller government borrowing requirements can also encourage private sector issuance or " crowding in " to revert to the terminology of a similar debate from the early 1980s. for financial markets, however, shrinking government bond markets have a number of potential implications that could be relevant to financial stability. first, government bond markets have tended to be more volatile in recent years. volatility makes government bonds less reliable as a hedge and as a benchmark for pricing, and market participants have been