the euro area, and well within the range observed during previous soft landings across major economies. the resilience of the labour market is itself a reflection of the unusual mix of shocks that have hit the euro area, with labour shortages leading firms to hoard more labour, and higher profits and lower real wages making it easier for them to do so. 10 4 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches as a result, the usual propagation from slower growth to heightened unemployment risks and lower demand did not happen to the same extent. now, we are still facing several uncertainties regarding future inflation, especially in terms of how the nexus of profits, wages and productivity will evolve and whether the economy will be hit by new supply - side shocks. and it will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above - target inflation have passed. the strong labour market means that we can take time to gather new information, but we also need to be mindful of the fact that the growth outlook remains uncertain. all of this underpins our determination to be data dependent and to take our policy decisions meeting by meeting. conclusion let me conclude. our policy decisions have successfully kept inflation expectations anchored, and inflation is projected to return to 2 % in the latter part of next year. considering the size of the inflation shock, this unwinding is remarkable in many ways. even though millions of businesses and workers have been independently striving to protect their profits and incomes, our 2 % inflation target has remained credible and has continued to anchor the inflation process. this speaks to the value of the policy frameworks that central banks have built up over the last 30 years, focusing on price stability and central bank independence. and it is why we will not waver from our commitment to bring inflation back down to our target for the benefit of all europeans. as the late footballer and manager sir bobby robson said, " the first 90 minutes are the most important ". similarly, we will not rest until the match is won and inflation is back at 2 %. 1 for a complementary discussion about how monetary policy cycles have evolved during the last half century in many advanced economies and how the current cycle in those countries differs from the past, see forbes, k., ha, j. and kose, m. a. ( 2024 ), " rate cycles ", paper presented at the ecb forum on central banking, sintra. 2 babura, m. et al. ( 2023

##gs of some of the anti - crisis measures and the inflexibility of budgeting processes are also at the origin of the strong deterioration of debt levels. spread of t en - year government bonds vis - a - vis germany basispoints jul / 08 jan / 09 es jul / 09 ie jan / 10 jul / 10 it jan / 11 pt jul / 11 gr source : ecb. a focus on the measures with the shortest implementation lags as well as a regular reassessment of the adequacy of the size of the respective fiscal stimulus might have saved substantial funds in several countries and put them in a better position to weather the next crisis. we need to get back to the rules - based fiscal system that for decades proved to be best suited for providing long - term stability. an improved fiscal framework and well - functioning supervisory and warning procedures in europe are even more important as recent years have taught us that we cannot rely on financial market mechanisms as the penalizing factor for bad fiscal behavior. one week before lehman brothers went bankrupt, rating agencies still rated it as “ investment grade. ” markets responded far too late and then overreacted. currently, we are in a situation of self - fulfilling prophecies where major rating agencies can actually trigger a crisis just by announcing it. – the final lesson i should like to draw from the experience of these past years is that we need to rethink the role of rating agencies. the liberalization of financial markets, which enhanced the influence of commercial ratings, is irreversible. monetary policy, however, needs to reduce its dependence on assessments made by rating agencies. in that respect, the approach of the bis central bankers ’ speeches u. s. federal reserve might be a good example for europe. furthermore, competition among rating agencies needs to be reinforced and supervised. 3. it is up to politics to let the euro unfold its full benefits we are currently back in a situation of high economic uncertainty and mounting pressures on the financial markets. in view of a sheer endless sequence of emergency meetings and new crisis measures, some people are beginning to lose confidence in the common currency and in international policy cooperation. i would therefore like to add a few thoughts on the global role of the common european currency and on the benefits the euro offers to euro area citizens. in the first years after the introduction of the euro, the citizens of the euro area profited from having a common currency in many respects. in spite of a series of