is a difficult undertaking. we would all benefit from a resolution of the problems in the euro area. the actions by the ecb have brought a period of calm to financial markets, and so bought more time. but, as the president of the european central bank, mario draghi, has said on many occasions, only politicians can produce lasting solutions to the problems facing the euro area, whether by restoring competitiveness to the periphery or creating a framework for a transfer union. the euro area illustrates a major problem for the world economy as a whole – the need to rebalance domestic demand away from countries with trade deficits to those with trade surpluses. without that, an increasing number of countries are coming to the view that only a lower real exchange rate will provide the stimulus to demand that their economies require. several have taken action to achieve that end. that is a recipe for competitive depreciations, what some have called “ currency wars ”. yet the existing configuration of exchange rates is unlikely to deliver stability. for almost two decades the world has struggled with, but failed to resolve, this problem. so it is hard to be optimistic about how easy it will be to manage the resulting tensions. the fall in our own exchange rate, of some 25 % between late 2007 and the beginning of 2009, has reduced the gap between our exports and imports in real terms from around 3½ % of gdp to around 1½ %. but the persistence of the current account deficit is evidence that an adjustment of sterling of that order was certainly necessary for a full rebalancing of our economy. with that diagnosis and prescription, what then is the prognosis : what does 2013 hold in store for the uk economy? on friday we shall see the first official estimate for growth in the fourth quarter of last year. as we saw throughout last year, quarter to quarter changes in growth rates tell us little about the underlying strength of the economy, affected as they are by one - off factors such as the diamond jubilee and the olympics. the continuation of the “ zig - zag ” pattern of growth rates last year means that, whether negative or positive, growth in q4 will almost certainly turn out to have been considerably weaker than in q3. inflation too has disappointed recently. it is set to remain above target for much of this year – in part because administered and regulated prices, such as those for electricity and gas, rail fares and university tuition fees, will put unusually strong upward pressure on inflation.

2017 ) “ final report : recommendations on outsourcing to cloud service providers ”, december, available at : https : / / www. eba. europa. eu / sites / default / documents / files / documents / 10180 / 2170121 / 5fa5cdde - 3219 - 4e95 - 946d0c0d05494362 / final % 20draft % 20recommendations % 20on % 20cloud % 20outsourcing % 20 % 28eba - rec - 201703 % 29. pdf? retry = 1 let me stop here. i have no doubt that the quality of the discussions we have today will allow us to deepen our understanding of these challenges in order to draw useful conclusions in terms of economic policy. and allow me to express once again my gratitude to the co - organisers of this event for making this conference possible, and to wish all the participants a very fruitful meeting and a pleasant stay in istanbul.