etc. ). sources : ministry of finance ; cabinet office ; bank of japan. chart 4 i. economic and financial developments household sector labor market conditions nominal wages s. a., ratio 7 s. a., % unemployment rate ( left scale ) y / y % chg. 1. 6 active job openings - to - applicants ratio ( right scale ) 1. 8 1. 4 1. 2 - 2 1. 0 special cash earnings ( bonuses, etc. ) non - scheduled cash earnings 0. 8 - 4 scheduled cash earnings total cash earnings 0. 6 cy 05 0. 4 - 6 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 note : in the right chart, q1 = march - may, q2 = june - august, q3 = september - november, q4 = december - february. figures from 2016 / q1 are based on continuing observations following the sample revisions. sources : ministry of internal affairs and communications ; ministry of health, labour and welfare. chart 5 i. economic and financial developments the bank's forecasts for economic activity and prices ( july 2020 outlook report ) y / y % chg. real gdp cpi ( all items less fresh food ) fiscal 2020 - 5. 7 to - 4. 5 [ - 4. 7 ] - 0. 6 to - 0. 4 [ - 0. 5 ] forecasts made in april - 5. 0 to - 3. 0 - 0. 7 to - 0. 3 fiscal 2021 + 3. 0 to + 4. 0 [ + 3. 3 ] + 0. 2 to + 0. 5 [ + 0. 3 ] forecasts made in april + 2. 8 to + 3. 9 0. 0 to + 0. 7 + 1. 3 to + 1. 6 [ + 1. 5 ] + 0. 5 to + 0. 8 [ + 0. 7 ] + 0. 8 to + 1. 6 + 0. 4 to + 1. 0 fiscal 2022 forecasts made in april notes : 1. these figures show the forecasts of the majority of the policy board members and those in brackets indicate the medians. the forecasts are constructed as follows : each policy board member's forecast takes the form of a point estimate - - namely, the figure to which she or he attaches the highest probability of realization. these forecasts are then shown as a range, with the highest figure and the lowest figure excluded. in the april

##prudential policy. they fulfill their respective functions in monitoring risks and financial imbalances in the entire financial system. the bank regularly releases the financial system report, which analyzes and assesses the stability and functioning of the financial system as a whole. the bank began its release back in 2005, before the global financial crisis occurred. since then, this semiannual report has been released to convey the bank ’ s thinking on risks and issues facing japan ’ s entire financial system. through this release, the bank works to grasp risks in the financial system as a whole, and to share a common understanding with a wide range of participants in the system, including financial institutions. i think this process is fundamental to identifying financial imbalances at an early stage and implementing, with appropriate timing, measures that are considered to be effective in containing risks. in relation to the three issues i mentioned earlier, there are two key points. first, it is important to improve the quality of the assessment of financial developments so that macroprudential measures can be implemented with appropriate timing. second, it is also important to increase the scope of analysis to cover not only banks but also the entire financial system. bis central bankers ’ speeches from that viewpoint, the results of various analyses are set out in the financial system report. as an example, let me introduce the financial activity indexes ( faixs ) ( chart 3 ). the bank began their compilation in 2012. the faixs aim to detect, as early as possible, overheating in financial activity that could lead to systemic risk. they are a selection of 14 financial indicators, such as the total credit - to - gdp ratio and the land prices to gdp ratio, and measure how far individual indicators deviate from their historical trends. the financial system report provides overheating or overcooling assessments of individual indicators in a “ heat map ” format, where red shading shows that the indicator in question is tilted toward overheating, blue indicates overcooling, and green represents everything in between. through a comprehensive analysis and assessment of these indicators, the bank works to gauge the accumulation of macro financial imbalances. of course, the heat map is not perfect. let me offer the example of the total credit - to - gdp ratio, which is a typical indicator of the financial cycle ( chart 4 ). it is difficult to grasp the underlying trend of the ratio, given the overwhelming magnitude of the emergence and bursting of the asset