by 2. 8 percentage points, a contribution rate of 56. 7 percent. new driving forces are growing fast, with strategic emerging industries gathering strength, and the development of digital economy, photovoltaic technology, and new energy vehicles leading the world. in the first three quarters, investment in high - tech industries increased by 11. 4 percent year on year, and the output of solar cells, charging piles, and new energy vehicles rose by 63. 2 percent, 34. 2 percent, and 26. 7 percent, 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches respectively. the balance of payments has seen improved soundness. china's current account has maintained a reasonable surplus, and its cross - border trade, investment, and financing have become more active. china's economy is expected to grow by around 5 percent this year, continuously maintaining a leading position among the major economies and playing as an important engine and stabilizer for global economic growth. recently, the international monetary fund ( imf ) has revised up its forecast for china's economic growth to 5. 4 percent. ii. complex and severe international situation the world is facing many uncertainties and challenges, such as intensified geopolitical conflicts, widespread trade protectionism, as well as high inflation, high interest rates, and high debt. looking forward, the global economic recovery is sluggish. the geopolitical games, the cumulative effects of tightened global liquidity, the potential financial risks as well as the extreme weather events are important factors that may affect the growth of the global economy. according to the world economic outlook released by the imf in october, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow down from 3. 5 percent last year to 3 percent this year and 2. 9 percent next year. the tight monetary policies in the major developed economies have played a restraining role in controlling inflation, leading to an overall decline in inflation but impairing investment and consumption. the diverging situation of emerging economies and tightened global liquidity have increased uncertainties in the growth of highly indebted economies. financial risks are evolving. as inflationary pressures ease and the risk of economic recession rises among countries, major central banks will end rate hikes at the right time, which may blunt the marginal impact of tight monetary policies on currency exchange rates, stock markets, and cross - border capital flows in various countries. however, the cumulative effects will loom larger, and risks in some economies and sectors still deserve close attention. global

randal k quarles : progress on the transition to risk - free rates speech by mr randal k quarles, vice chairman for supervision of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the financial stability board roundtable on reforming major interest rate benchmarks, washington dc, 10 april 2019. * * * i am pleased that we have this opportunity to meet with many of the institutions active in helping to achieve a transition from libor to the risk - free rates identified by working groups in each of our jurisdictions. the financial stability board ( fsb ) has coordinated the international effort to reform interest rate benchmarks at the direction of the g - 20. this is an important effort across the globe, but nowhere is it of more importance than in the jurisdictions relying on libor. let ’ s review the reasons that we are here. by the time of the financial crisis, much of the global financial system had come to rely on libor. and yet libor was a very poorly structured rate ; contributing banks were asked to submit quotes without any requirement of evidence of transactions or other facts to back them up, which made them susceptible to manipulation. thanks to subsequent reforms, contributors now provide this type of evidence where possible, but libor is based on an underlying market with so few transactions that there is relatively little direct evidence they can provide. many submitting banks are uncomfortable with this situation, and some sought to stop their participation. as a result, the official sector has had to step in to support libor by securing a voluntary agreement with the remaining banks to continue submitting through 2021. at the same time, the official sector has convened national working groups to help develop alternative risk - free rates and navigate a very complicated transition. many people have used reference rates with little thought. the experience with libor should teach us that this has to change and that we cannot risk making this kind of mistake again. banks should conduct at least as much due diligence on the reference rates that they use as they conduct on the creditworthiness of their borrowers. the national working groups convened by many of the fsb member authorities have performed that type of diligence with the secured overnight funding rate, or sofr, and the risk - free rates identified in other jurisdictions. that effort has been a clear and positive example of public - private sector cooperation. these alternative risk - free rates have been created or substantially reformed to ensure that robust, transaction - based rates that accurately represent well