mpc expects the core inflation forecast of 1. 5 - 2. 5 percent. but, there are important risks to these forecasts. on the growth momentum, data for the first three months of 2008 point to gdp growth close to 6 percent, up from the previous quarter of 5. 7 percent. during the first three months of this year, private consumption and investment, which constitute almost 70 percent of total demand, are firming up. meanwhile, the disbursement rate of central government budget during the first half of fiscal year 2008 was also up from the same period last year. moreover, we see a pick - up in consumption of durable goods as confidence increases, aided in part by the continued strong growth of farm income by 21. 1 percent during the first quarter of 2008. as for the strength of the investment engine, private investment indicators have continued the uptrend while investor confidence has been boosted by the public investment plan over the next 5 years. during the first three months of this year, the private investment index was up by 7. 2 percent from the same quarter of 2007. though we know that actual disbursement of government investment expenditure may not occur till the final quarter of this year, the strong government commitment has already led to stronger investor confidence. additional expenditure for land acquisition for mega projects would also boost domestic demand to some degree. this should prompt the pent - up demand for private investment, which has been held back over the past several years, to begin to materialize. turning to the external sector, the strong trading partners ’ demand, seen in 2007, will unlikely reoccur in 2008. the world now expects the us economy to weaken substantially. clearly, we will have to wait quite sometime for the clear upturn of the us economy after the us fed ’ s sharp and substantial interest rate cuts to shore up the economy and confidence. since the us crisis will most dominantly affect the thai economy through the trade channel, we also have to watch for growth trends in europe and asia to see how extensive the adverse impacts of the us recession are. nevertheless, during the first three months of 2008, the value of exports continued to grow strongly by 21. 1 percent. but, this was outpaced by the growth of imports of 34. 5 percent, resulting in a small trade deficit. however, we expect the overall trade balance in 2008 to be in surplus due to the expansion of exports to new markets. as for the current account,

ewald nowotny : european monetary union – past, present and future, in honor of alexandre lamfalussy speech by prof dr ewald nowotny, governor of the central bank of the republic of austria, at the lamfalussy lectures conference, budapest, 31 january 2014. * * * i am very glad to be here in budapest again as a guest of the hungarian central bank, with which the austrian central bank ‒ the oesterreichische nationalbank – has very close relations, not the least because both our central banks are in the same imf constituency as our friends from turkey, the czech republic and a few other countries. i am a humble central banker and not a diplomat, so i may be frank and remind you that close relationships are not necessarily always easy relationships. in fact, our two central banks recently faced some difficult issues, revolving especially around some foreign - owned banks. but i also want to underline that both our central banks have always been committed to finding workable and fair solutions, and i am quite optimistic that at the end of the day, we – and our governments – will find such solutions. we all know very well that in matters of external and of internal affairs there may be situations of disagreement, but history teaches us that we should never go so far as to see each other as enemies. the hungarian central bank and especially my friend, governor gyorgy matolcsy, are to be commended for the brilliant idea of establishing the lamfalussy prize and the lamfalussy lecture : i gladly accepted this prize in honour of baron alexandre lamfalussy, who perfectly exemplifies the model of the great liberal, open minded hungarian that journalist and author paul lendvai impressively described in his brilliant book “ the hungarians ”. i recently gave my wife this book in recognition of her hungarian roots. baron lamfalussy can also serve as a symbol of – and as a role model – for the personal and intellectual ties between central europe and western europe and therefore also for the relationship between the “ ins ” and “ outs ” of economic and monetary union. thus it is no coincidence that in two weeks, the belgian central bank will also hold a special conference in honor of alexandre lamfalussy, a conference, by the way, where lamfalussy will personally attend the presentation of a book on his life coauthored by his son. alexandre lamfalussy lives in truly interesting times