rates on hryvnia term household deposits. yields on hryvnia instruments exceeded current and expected inflation. as a result, hryvnia term household deposits and households'investments in domestic government debt securities continued to rise, which was in line with the nbu's tasks. in view of the expected acceleration of inflation in 2024 and the upward shift of the balance of risks, the nbu considers it appropriate to keep the key policy rate unchanged. this will help maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments, which will limit demand on the fx market, while also helping the nbu to discharge its mandate for 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches safeguarding exchange rate sustainability. in addition, the nbu will maintain an active presence on the fx market to smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations within the scope of the managed exchange rate flexibility regime. in turn, maintaining exchange rate sustainability will remain an important tool for keeping 2024 inflation and inflation expectations in check, and for bringing inflation to its target range in 2025. the baseline scenario of the nbu's forecast, which assumes that ukraine will receive sufficient international financing and that security risks will subside from next year, provides for a slight reduction in the key policy rate starting in h2 2024. at the same time, the nbu will adapt its monetary policy if the balance of risks for inflation and exchange rate sustainability changes. any further decisions on the key policy rate will depend on inflation dynamics, the state of the fx market, the regularity of international aid inflows, the evolution of security risks, and other factors. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

easing will continue to be also driven by the nbu's interest rate and currency policy measures. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the economy returned to growth in 2023, and the recovery will continue in the coming years the economy has been recovering throughout the entire 2023 thanks to the high adaptability of businesses and households to wartime conditions and thanks to the loose fiscal policy supported by large - scale international financing. in q4, the growth in real gdp exceeded expectations, primary due to better harvests of late crops and the development of alternative export routes. this created grounds for an improvement in estimates of real gdp growth for the whole of 2023, to 5. 7 %. the economic growth will continue despite the war. in 2024, real gdp will rise by 3. 6 %, mainly thanks to budget expenditures remaining high in view of expected sufficient inflows of international financial assistance. in 2025 – 2026, economic growth will accelerate to 4 % – 6 % per year, thanks to a decline in security risks, which is the main assumption of the nbu's forecast, an improvement in consumer and investment sentiments, and the implementation of european integration reforms. in the post - war period, the loose fiscal policy will continue to support the economy. at the same time, the budget deficit will significantly narrow as the internal resource base increases. international financial support of ukraine will continue, albeit declining in volume. this will enable the nbu to maintain international reserves at a high level and ensure exchange rate sustainability thanks to external support and the nbu's consistent policy, ukraine's international reserves increased by 42 % in 2023 to usd 40. 5 billion. despite delays in international aid disbursement at the beginning of the year, its regularity is anticipated to resume in the coming months. under the baseline scenario of the nbu's forecast, ukraine is expected to receive about usd 37 billion in foreign loans and grants in 2024. as security risks expectedly decline in the coming years, ukraine will restore its ability to independently finance its own needs, and so the volume of official external financing will taper off. at the same time, this aid will be enough to maintain a sufficient level of international reserves and ensure exchange rate sustainability. combined with domestic market borrowing, international support will also help meet the still significant fiscal needs of the government. the course of the war continues to be the key risk to inflation dynamics and economic development the war is grinding on