##s of around r37 billion. more recent 3 may to august 2013. according to the jp morgan em currency index, comprising brazil, chile, china, singapore india, hungary, mexico, russia, turkey and south africa. mid - 2014 to mid - march 2015 ( since then, however, the us dollar has depreciated marginally, but traded generally sideways. ). market analysts ’ models were showing that the us dollar performance was consistent with an actual 100 bps increase in the us policy rate. bis central bankers ’ speeches data from the central securities depository7 reveals that, in the year - to - date, non - residents bought r20, 1 billion worth of equities and r861 million worth of bonds, amounting to total inflows of r21, 0 billion. south africa ’ s vulnerability to us policy tightening is augmented by our dependence on external financing to deal with the current - account deficit. south africa is, however, not alone in this episode of asset reallocation away from emes, whereby portfolio inflows in 2015 are expected to fall below 2008 levels, according to the institute of international finance8. this, however, reflects a “ lengthening drought ” in capital flows, rather than a sudden stop. has divergence in monetary policy impacted investment positions in emes? in the wake of the gfc, investors piled into em equities and debt amid abundant liquidity, low interest rates and low growth in aes. these inflows, however, did not always reflect domestic economic fundamentals, whilst the em outlook also became increasingly uncertain over the past four years. as a result, a major concern with the fed ’ s upcoming tightening cycle is that global investors will further reallocate portfolios away from em assets and back towards the us given better growth prospects, rising yields and the perception of a more secure investment environment. a weaker exchange rate for south africa would probably raise implied rand volatility, adding to overall risk aversion and weak sentiment towards rand - denominated assets. although the nominal effective exchange rate of the rand was reasonably stable during 2014, relative to baskets of commodity - exporting or large emes, it depreciated by about 10 per cent on a tradeweighted basis during 2015 to date due to the combination of domestic and global developments already discussed. for south africa, the favourable impact of a weaker currency on the trade account have not been forthcoming for a few years

on uniform principles, which are applied appropriately, taking into account the size and complexity of the issuer. and our securities laws must be consistently enforced. just as alberta played a lead role in reshaping the canada pension plan to make it a model for the world, i trust that the government of alberta and the calgary business community will play a lead role in establishing a uniform framework for securities regulation in canada – a framework that will help to develop this city's potential beyond the oil and gas sector. economic issues before concluding, i'd like to say just a few words about our most recent thinking on what we at the bank of canada see happening globally and in our national economy. last month, i attended the group of seven meetings in germany. the discussions on the global economy were very much in line with what we had set out in the bank's january monetary policy report update. global prospects remain very favourable. while weakness in the u. s. housing sector is likely to continue for a short while, the weakness doesn't appear to have spread to the rest of the u. s. economy, and growth is expected to pick up over the course of 2007. the bank judges that the canadian economy was operating at, or just above, its production capacity at the end of last year. we continue to project that it should operate near its capacity throughout 2007 and 2008. total cpi inflation at the national level should average just above 1 per cent in the first half of this year, returning to the 2 per cent inflation target in early 2008. core inflation should remain near 2 per cent through to the end of next year. that's a look at our base - case economic projection. but if there's one thing we can be certain about, it's that the economy will not evolve exactly as set out in our base case. so, a very important part of our outlook is the assessment of the risks surrounding our projection. there are risks on both the upside and the downside. the main upside risk to our inflation projection continues to come from stronger household demand in canada. consumption could be stronger than expected, as households borrow against increased equity in their homes. various indicators of household credit have also shown strong growth over the past year. the main downside risk continues to come from the united states where, as i mentioned, clear weakness remains in the housing sector. but there are some encouraging signs. the slowdown in the u. s. housing and automotive sectors does