’ speeches therefore, the stimulus should be prioritized and carefully planned to leave some policy space for future needs. ladies and gentlemen, i would like to end my talk today by stressing that we now live in a different and difficult world. current global risks from the slowdown in advanced economies have clearly heightened. given good economic fundamentals, the thai economy should be resilient enough to cope with such risks. i would like to urge investors not to swing between over pessimism and over - confidence and behave in a herd - like manner. instead, all parties, public and private, should be cautious and prepared for the global risks in moving the country forward. it is my firm believe that protecting domestic purchasing power and let everyone have equal chance to benefit from the economic growth can strengthen the future well being of the thai economy in a sustainable manner in years ahead. without further delay, may i officially open the fitch ratings ( thailand ) ’ s 2011 10th anniversary annual conference and wish everyone a fruitful deliberation. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches

revision. a consequence of this is that the official cash rate ( ocr ) may be less predictable simply because the world in which we are making our decisions is less predictable. another challenge of uncertainty and low investment both globally and domestically is the downward pressure this creates on the global and domestic neutral interest rate. as a small open economy, our neutral interest rate is heavily driven by the global rate and we cannot escape this. a falling neutral interest rate will increasingly push the reserve bank to the limits of conventional monetary policy space, as we need to lower rates by a greater degree in order to achieve the same amount of stimulus as when the neutral rate was higher. so, what can monetary policy do to offset the effects of global uncertainty and support our long - term prosperity? monetary policy response to uncertainty the reserve bank can contribute to a stable economic environment by continuing to focus on fulfilling its dual - mandate. firstly, maintaining low and stable inflation enables organisations and individuals to carry out meaningful financial planning, by reducing overall uncertainty. this is something that is nearly impossible when prices are high and volatile or falling uncontrollably. secondly, when employment is near its maximum sustainable level, firms have a stronger incentive to make productivity - enhancing investments that raise their capacity. 5 this is hard to identify precisely, but is partly associated with the ongoing shift from manufacturing to services within the economy, with services contributing relatively lower measureable investment. 6 see nolan, pomeroy, and zheng ( 2019 ). uncertainty can affect the monetary policy response through the execution of this dualmandate. in particular, it is now more suitable for us to take a risk - management approach. in short, this means we look to minimise our regrets. we would rather act quickly and decisively, with a risk that we are too effective, than do too little, too late, and see conditions worsen. this approach was visible in our august ocr decision when we cut the rate by 50 basis points. it was clear that providing more stimulus sooner held little risk of overshooting our objectives — whereas holding the ocr flat ran the risk of needing to provide significantly more stimulus later. we can also address uncertainty through our communication and forward guidance, which are broad - ranging. we reveal our assessment of the economy — good or bad — to the public, so they can make decisions based on the best possible information amid the prevailing uncertainty. we voice the types of policies we believe may be needed to sustain long and prosperous growth —