a difficult context like the current one, macroeconomic projections, albeit detailed like those referring to these two scenarios, are to be intended as purely indicative and are closely linked to the assumptions on prices and availability of raw materials, which are, in turn, largely determined by developments in the conflict in ukraine. in any case, the risks for economic growth are still tilted downwards. they stem from geopolitical tensions as well as from the outlook for other economies, first and foremost the us economy, where, also due to the strong tightening of monetary conditions, many indicators suggest a possible contraction in economic activity in the next 12 months. further negative effects could derive from a potentially sharp slowdown in china, mainly connected with the fragility of the construction sector. the persistence of inflation at high levels for longer than currently expected would obviously be a further negative risk for the purchasing power of households'incomes. despite the worsening outlook, italy's debt - to - gdp ratio continues to improve. it is currently estimated at around 145 per cent in 2022, 5 percentage points less than in 2021 and 10 points less than the peak achieved in 2020 : about half of the increase recorded due to the pandemics has therefore been recovered. over the next three years, the debt - to - gdp ratio should continue to fall, although likely at a more moderate pace. several factors will affect the future dynamics of public debt. general government net borrowing is currently projected on a descending path. in the latest assessment by the italian ministry of economics and finance, it would settle at about 5 per cent of gdp this year and just above 3 per cent next year ( against over 7 per cent in 2021 and 9. 5 per cent in 2020 ). the increase in yields on government securities will raise debt - servicing costs in nominal terms. however, the high average residual maturity of the debt ( close to 8 years ) will slow the 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches transmission of higher interest rates to debt servicing costs. for example, this year the average cost of debt has remained quite stable, at 2. 5 per cent, despite yields rising from less than 0. 5 per cent to above 3 per cent for 10 - year bonds. due to the necessary normalisation of monetary conditions in the euro area, the cost of debt servicing is set to increase further. it is worth pointing out that as interest rates are rising to contrast the growth in inflation, this would not worsen servicing costs in real terms insof

lower than was expected last april. despite these deteriorating prospects, however, aggregate demand is holding up. in italy we can actually observe a better - than - expected resilience, for example in the service sector, also thanks to the continuing recovery of tourism flows, and in the labour market. in this highly uncertain framework, the bank of italy's latest economic bulletin presented two projection scenarios for the italian economy. the first assumes that gas flows from russia to italy remain on average at the levels observed in recent months and that the prices of raw materials are in line with those of recent futures contracts. in this scenario, gdp growth would fall from close to 3. 5 per cent in 2022 to less than 0. 5 per cent in 2023. gdp, in particular, would decline in the last quarter of this year, and then gradually recover from the second quarter of 2023. 1 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches the weakness of economic activity would reflect both that of consumption – which would diminish, following the decrease in the purchasing power of households – and that of investments in machinery and equipment – which would decelerate due to high uncertainty and the increase in financing costs. the worsening of international trade would also have an impact, as real exports would grow much more slowly after increasing at a rate of more than 10 per cent, both in 2021 and 2022. the second, more adverse scenario, assumes that energy supplies from russia to europe are permanently shut off starting in the final quarter of this year and are gradually, albeit only partially, replaced with alternative sources next year ; oil and gas prices are therefore projected to rise to around 50 per cent more than was contemplated in the first scenario. these developments would be accompanied by a further slowdown in world trade and a sharp rise in uncertainty. in this case, italian gdp would fall by over 1. 5 per cent next year, while inflation would exceed 9 per cent, 2. 5 percentage points more than in the first scenario. both of these scenarios were drawn up before the publication, earlier this week, of italy's gdp growth in the third quarter, which was substantially better than expected ( an increase of 0. 5 per cent quarter - on - quarter, against widely held expectations of a negative figure ). these new data suggest that growth should, ceteris paribus, be somewhat higher this year and this effect would mechanically carry on to the next year. these new relatively surprising data confirm that, in