per barrel in the next three years. according to our preliminary estimates, the expansion of oil output under the new opec + agreements will add about 0. 1 pp to gdp growth this year and 0. 2 – 0. 3 pp next year. another important growth driver is domestic demand, including both consumer and investment demand. considering these trends, we have revised our economic growth forecast for this year upwards from 3 – 4 % to 4 – 4. 5 %. after the recovery, the economy will expand at a pace close to its potential. we forecast that gdp will equal 2 – 3 % in the next two years. the possibility to achieve higher economic growth rates will depend both on the expansion of production and logistics capacities and on labour resources, their expertise and performance. t hird. monetary conditions have been progressively adjusting to the earlier increases in the key rate, but are still accommodative. the yield curve of federal government bonds, which is used by banks as a benchmark for the interest rates they set for their clients, has significantly increased for maturities of up to three years, while staying almost unchanged in the long end. the rise in short - term yields reflects both our recent decisions and market expectations regarding the future key rate path. shifts in long - term yields are minor. among other things, this is an evidence of market participants ’ confidence that monetary policy will finally bring inflation back to the target. i would like to reiterate that these are long - term interest rates, rather than our key rate as such ( as is often stated ), that determine the affordability of credit for companies ’ investment purposes and of mortgage loans. as compared to yields on federal government bonds, interest rates on loans and deposits have responded more slowly and rose less significantly. our today ’ s decision is aimed at accelerating this process. an increase in interest rates will help restore households ’ propensity to save. growth in retail and corporate lending is close to its highest rates recorded in recent years. many borrowers seek to take out loans as soon as possible at lower interest rates. we have raised our lending growth forecast for this year. mortgage lending will continue to expand fast, while slightly decelerating after the amendments to the subsidised mortgage lending programme become effective. speaking of unsecured consumer lending, we can already observe the first signs of overheating. this lending segment has been growing faster than we forecast in april. on 1 july, we returned risk weights for

face. nonetheless, the loan portfolio has expanded by nearly 15 %, specifically 14. 7 %, since the beginning of the year. the number of borrowers has increased by 63. 6 % since early 2020, to exceed 450, 000 companies. we know that small and medium - sized businesses develop predominantly owing to their profits, their equity, which is not bad, and that nowadays a large number of enterprises have had an opportunity to apply to banks and receive these loans during this period. indeed, companies applied for loans because they were forced to do that and it was primarily associated with their need to make up for decreased revenues in the second quarter. the preferential lending programmes launched by the government were essential in this regard, including both the 0 % wage loan and 2 % programmes. banks have granted over 0. 5 trillion rubles since the beginning of the year within these programmes. i would like to remind you that, in order to support these programmes, to maintain lending, the bank of russia also launched its preferential refinancing instrument for banks, in addition to the one that existed earlier, with the limit of 500 billion rubles exactly to support the portfolio of projects. we are well aware that, although the lending programmes with state guarantees, sureties, as well as corporate sureties have expanded, preferential programmes are not accessible to all enterprises, but only to a small portion of them. the objective of our programme was to incentivise banks to maintain their 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches lending amounts. in other words, those banks that did not reduce their sme lending considerably, including both under preferential and standard programmes, received funds from the central bank at a rather attractive interest rate, recently equalling 2. 25 %. this was a resource that truly helped maintain lending volumes. a survey by opora russia — we are closely monitoring your survey findings — shows that businesses generally record a higher accessibility of loans in recent months. we appreciate this view. nonetheless, we can see that currently loans are mostly concentrated with large banks, but we are confident that both banks with a basic licence and regional banks will be capable to significantly contribute to the small business development and become more flexible since they better understand clients ’ interests and regional specifics. we are going to advance this segment of the banking system. not only large banks have had access to our special - purpose instrument : 55 banks have used it, including regional banks and those banks that received corporate sureties.