opening remarks at oenb monetary policy panel by andrew bailey given at oesterreichische nationalbank, annual economic conference, vienna published on 23 may 2022 remarks this is a time of very large economic shocks, and particularly very large external shocks, most recently from russia ’ s invasion of ukraine. i say that as someone who wholeheartedly supports the cause of ukraine and the assistance we must give. we are in a period of rapidly rising energy, goods and some food prices. these are the most visible prices too. this is by far the main cause of high inflation, and is painful, particularly for those less well off. what can and should monetary policy do? there is a very important distinction between : whether monetary policy can anticipate and stop the effects on inflation of shocks ; and, if not, whether it should respond when they happen? with shocks such as pandemics and wars, the answer to the first question is more likely to be “ no ”. but the answer to the second is very much “ yes, monetary policymakers can and must take the actions needed to return inflation to target over a period that avoids unnecessary volatility in the economy ”. it is domestic actions that have to get us back to price stability. for monetary policy, the choice of policy actions is influenced by the nature of the shock we are facing. in the uk we are facing a very big negative impact on real incomes caused by the rise in prices of things we import, notably energy. we expect that to weigh heavily on demand. we judge the appropriate degree of monetary tightening taking that into account. what i reject is the argument that in our response to covid the bank ’ s monetary policy committee let demand get out of hand and thus stoked inflation. the facts simply do not support this. on the latest number, uk gdp in march was only 0. 6 % above its pre - covid level, and it is substantially below the path it was expected to follow pre - covid. what we do have is a very tight labour market. but that does not look like a story about rapid demand growth. the labour force has shrunk by around 1 % since the onset of covid. it looks much more like an impact from the supply of labour. the job of the bank of england is to return inflation to target at a time when a very large headwind from external shocks, and an internal shock from a fall in the labour force, are reducing real

janet l yellen : the economic outlook and monetary policy speech by ms janet l yellen, chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, to the economic club of washington, washington dc, 2 december 2015. * * * thank you to the economic club of washington for inviting me to speak to you today. i would like to offer my assessment of the u. s. economy, nearly six and half years after the beginning of the current economic expansion, and my view of the economic outlook. i will describe the progress the economy has made toward the federal open market committee ’ s ( fomc ) goals of maximum employment and stable prices and what the current situation and the outlook imply for how monetary policy is likely to evolve to best foster the attainment of those objectives. the economic outlook the u. s. economy has recovered substantially since the great recession. the unemployment rate, which peaked at 10 percent in october 2009, declined to 5 percent in october of this year. at that level, the unemployment rate is near the median of fomc participants ’ most recent estimates of its longer - run normal level. 1 the economy has created about 13 million jobs since the low point for employment in early 2010, and total nonfarm payrolls are now almost 4 – 1 / 2 million higher than just prior to the recession. most recently, after a couple months of relatively modest payroll growth, employers added an estimated 271, 000 jobs in october. this increase brought the average monthly gain since june to about 195, 000 – close to the monthly pace of around 210, 000 in the first half of the year and still sufficient to be consistent with continued improvement in the labor market. despite these substantial gains, we cannot yet, in my judgment, declare that the labor market has reached full employment. let me describe the basis for that view. to begin with, i believe that a significant number of individuals now classified as out of the labor force would find and accept jobs in an even stronger labor market. to be classified as unemployed, working - age people must report that they have actively sought work within the past four weeks. most of those not seeking work are appropriately not counted as unemployed. these include most retirees, teenagers and young adults in school, and those staying home to care for children and other dependent family members. even in a stronger job market, it is likely that many of these individuals would choose not to work. but some who are counted as out of the labor force might