energy prices, and the resolution of a major part of supply chain bottlenecks. inflationary pressures subsided in the past year also on account of other import and producer prices. this was coupled with the disinflationary effect of external and domestic aggregate demand, with tighter monetary conditions. in january, y - o - y inflation dropped further, to 6. 4 %, fully consistent with our nowcast model, supported by artificial intelligence. according to our estimates, inflation decelerated further in february, to 5. 5 % y - o - y. ( slide 5 ) in relation to occasional discussions about inflation factors and peaks in serbia and other central european countries, let me just introduce a few facts : inflation rise in serbia over the past three years was mostly driven by food and energy prices – which account for 53 – 75 % of y - o - y inflation and are crucially affected by global factors. 3 / 8 bis - central bankers'speeches in comparable central european countries, inflation spiralled up to highs unseen in decades, though peaking at different points in time. in serbia, inflation peak was reached somewhat later and was generally lower than in those countries, so the high base effect from the same period in 2022 was also comparatively lower. serbia's inflation peaking later compared to other countries may be explained by the fact that in the first wave of the energy crisis our state assumed the major part of the cost burden. it thus reduced uncertainty in the domestic market and mitigated the first wave of the crisis, while in the majority of other countries, the bulk of these price adjustments were made abruptly already in 2022. also, core inflation, excluding the prices of food and energy and measuring the impact of monetary policy, edged up less in serbia than in the majority of comparable central european countries over the past three years. ( slide 6 ) the second topic builds on the first one. last year was marked by the further tightening of monetary conditions by the majority of central banks, which is certainly one of the factors behind the declining inflation path. the nbs was one of the first to tighten monetary conditions as of october 2021, nd our timely and well - calibrated decisions allowed for a more moderate response in 2023. in 2023, we lifted the key policy rate by a total of 1. 5 percentage points and as of july it equals 6. 5 %. further, in september, using the required reserve tool, we permanently mopped up a portion of

jorgovanka tabakovic : overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in serbia introductory speech by dr jorgovanka tabakovic, governor of the national bank of serbia, at the presentation of the inflation report – may 2016, belgrade, 24 may 2016. * * * ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the presentation of the may inflation report. as always, we will give you an overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends and our expectations for the period ahead. let me start and conclude my speech by discussing the same topical news! we have revised our gdp growth projection for 2016 from 1. 8 % upwards. we now expect that the serbian economy will end this year with a growth between 2. 3 % and 2. 5 %. allow me to underline that, given the current movements, it is far more likely that the year - end gdp growth rate will be at the upper bound of the projection range, i. e. at 2. 5 %. and it is not that we are being overly optimistic ; this projection is based on models, mathematics and indicators. if we compare the latest macroeconomic data with those presented in the february report, it is evident that the economic recovery of the republic of serbia has continued, and more importantly, that the growth is based on long - term sustainable foundations. and that is why the macroeconomic outlook for the period ahead has been revised upwards relative to the previous report. in the first three months of the year, fiscal deficit contracted by a quarter from the same period last year and equalled 1. 7 % of the estimated gdp, as compared to 2. 4 % in the same period a year earlier. the current account deficit of the balance of payments has more than halved compared to the corresponding period in 2015 – it equals 3. 3 % of the estimated gdp and remains fully covered by foreign direct investments. our fiscal outlook has improved in response to a sustainable rise in tax revenue, while the narrowing of the current account deficit has been driven by more favourable trends in external trade. last time we met at the presentation of the february report, we expressed no doubts as to the continuation of growth in exports and economic activity in the coming years. indeed, the growth has continued up, and has done so at an even faster pace than expected. export growth, measured in euro terms, was exceptionally strong – it came at 13. 4 % yеаr - on - year in the first quarter, and is without any doubt