and global growth. speaking of the governing council of the ecb, let me say a few words on our monetary policy. it is following, with confidence and with patience, a path of gradual normalisation. but one shouldn ’ t focus excessively on the sole instrument of monthly net asset purchases : whether we end them in september or taper them somewhat more gradually is not a “ deep existential ” question … there are two more important issues : first, we prefer, as in irish dancing, a four - hand reel rather than a solo ; we will rely more and more on the entire policy package, including the sizeable stock of acquired assets, the forthcoming reinvestments and the forward guidance on interest rates. and we will follow a predictable sequence. second, the timing of this sequence will depend on the inflation outlook and its progress towards our target of close to but below 2 %. we will accordingly monitor the impact of the exchange rate evolution – which is a source of uncertainty –, and be ready to reassess if necessary. fiscal devaluations have also been considered by countries aiming at boosting competitiveness through changes in their tax system, typically by cutting labour and / or capital taxes, while rising consumption taxes. 9 this shift in the tax system increases the competitiveness of domestic firms with respect to foreign ones, both in domestic and export markets. in practice, however, 3 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches there are empirical limits to this strategy. a race to the bottom on corporate tax rates also raises increasing challenges about the social fairness of globalisation – and hence its sustainability – as president macron stressed in davos … and as is even pointed out sometimes in debates about ireland. recent research has put emphasis on the noticeable influence that fiscal policy can have on variations in imbalances, including in the us and germany. in this respect, the recent us tax reform adopted by congress is expected to significantly boost the us economy, which is already at full employment, leading in turn to increasing imports and a widening external deficit. so, it clearly risks increasing global imbalances. 10 symmetrically, within the euro area, some countries with large positive current accounts recently experienced budget surpluses ( e. g. in 2017, 0. 9 % of gdp in germany and 0. 7 % of gdp in the netherlands ). this suggests that a fiscal boost in those countries could help to correct intra - euro area imbalances, be it through public investment spending or

of the euro area ( ii. ). i. continued strong vigilance is needed to navigate through an increasingly uncertain world a. persistent threats against a backdrop of intense geopolitical uncertainty and a less favourable macroeconomic environment than expected, the financial industry faces a combination of very “ traditional ” risks and some relatively new ones. 1 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches since the summer, there has been a series of negative surprises : a resurgence of trade tensions between the united states and its partners, notably china ; tensions surrounding the italian budget ; the british parliament ’ s rejection of the brexit deal ; and, closer to us, the scale and duration of the so called gilets jaunes movement. this climate has weighed on the macroeconomic environment, which is now unquestionably less favourable than anticipated a few months ago. according to the imf, global growth could slow to 3. 5 % in 2019 from 3. 7 % in 2018. france ’ s economic growth is also slowing, albeit to a lesser extent than in other european countries thanks to a rise in purchasing power and robust domestic demand. in 2019, france should grow at a pace faster than in germany, and close to the average pace for the euro area. this context of uncertainty exacerbates risks already faced by financial intermediaries. debt levels among economic agents remain high. this is particularly true for france where debt has been rising consistently over the past fifteen years, and now stands at 75 % and 60 % of gdp respectively for non - financial corporations and households – in stark contrast with the trends observed in neighbouring european countries and other advanced economies. the downward revision to growth forecasts raises even greater concerns over the sustainability of this debt and the amplifying role it could play in the event of an upward shock to interest rates or a downward shock to activity. similarly, it makes the ( still necessary ) process of balance sheet cleansing even harder for those financial intermediaries that have been unable to finish it or have put it off since the last crisis, and still bear the scars in the form of legacy non - performing loans. the increased uncertainty in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is also weighing on markets, where valuations still seem elevated in a medium - term perspective. this raises the risk of abrupt and marked downward corrections in financial asset prices, particularly as market liquidity seems more fragile since the last financial crisis. from a more forward - looking perspective, the downward revision to growth forecasts