at 4. 4 percent for 2022, largely exceeding the past average of 3. 5 percent. the recovery in overseas economies becoming clearer recently is attributable to the economic measures in the united states and the acceleration in vaccinations in advanced economies. economic activity, including services consumption, has improved in the united states and europe amid progress with vaccinations. such improvement, along with a continuing recovery in the chinese economy, has been pushing up the global economy as a whole through trade activity. turning to the corporate sector in japan, exports and production have increased steadily, supported by the recovery in overseas economies ( chart 2 ). according to the june 2021 tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in japan ), while many firms in the face - to - face services industry have continued to view their business conditions as " unfavorable, " overall business conditions have improved for four consecutive quarters. on the back of improvement in corporate profits as a whole, business fixed investment has picked up, mainly for machinery and digital - related investments, albeit with weakness in some industries. the business fixed investment plans in the june 2021 tankan indicate that the year - on - year rate of change in such investment for fiscal 2021 is likely to show a steady increase of 9. 4 percent. thus, in the corporate sector, a virtuous cycle from profits to business fixed investment has been seen, triggered by an increase in external demand that reflects the recovery in overseas economies. as for the outlook, corporate profits are likely to continue improving on the whole on the back of a recovery in domestic and external demand, despite being pushed down by cost increases due to a recent rise in international commodity prices. under these circumstances, an uptrend in business fixed investment is expected to become clear. turning to the household sector, the pace of improvement has been slower than in the corporate sector. private consumption has been stagnant with public health measures remaining in place ( chart 3 ). consumption of durable goods has been steady, partly on the back of an expansion in stay - at - home demand. on the other hand, that of services, including eating and drinking as well as accommodations, has remained well below the pre - pandemic level. for the time being, private consumption, mainly of face - to - face services, is likely to be at a relatively low level due to the impact of covid - 19. that said, the situations in other countries where vaccination

financial institutions. i hope that the private sector's efforts on climate change will be further encouraged through the bank's new measure, which could be the world's first such attempt, in that it ensures flexibility while avoiding involvement in micro - level resource allocation as much as possible. conclusion lastly, i would like to talk about the economy of niigata prefecture. while the economy of niigata prefecture has remained in a severe situation due to the impact of covid - 19, it has been picking up. it is expected to continue recovering, but there is still a need to be aware of downside risks as the future course of covid - 19 remains uncertain. however, looking at the development trajectory of the economy, i believe that niigata prefecture is well equipped with the innovative capabilities to weather the uncertain post - pandemic era. for example, niigata's rice and sake, which are famous throughout japan, are not simply products of nature ; their production has grown into high value - added industries that were developed through research and development to make the most of the local climate and water quality. there are also many examples of technologies and know - how handed down in the region that have become the basis of world - renowned local industries, such as metal processing in the tsubame - sanjo area, which developed from the casting of japanese nails in the edo period, and hemp fabric in the uonuma region, which is famous for its " snow bleaching " during the agricultural off - season. speaking of the accumulation of experience and facilities, niigata, which has produced oil and natural gas from long ago, is also one of japan's leading energy prefectures, equipped with technology for resource development and recycling, and pipelines that connect to the tokyo metropolitan area. while the society as a whole is making efforts to address climate change, i hope that niigata will take advantage of its environment to boldly take on the challenge of entering new businesses and thereby lead the country in terms of making such efforts. next year will mark the 100th anniversary of the opening of the ohkouzu diversion channel on shinano river. japan's first weir equipped with modern technology has protected the echigo plain from devastating damage caused by the overflowing of shinano river and has supported the development of niigata. i would like to close my remarks by expressing my respect for the great innovations of our ancestors and my hope for the further