, " unconventional monetary policies in the euro area, japan, and the united kingdom, " journal of economic perspectives, vol. 32, no. 4 ( 2018 ) : 147 - 72. wages. the number of job openings has increased significantly, with the active job openings - to - applicants ratio currently standing in the range of 1. 6 - 1. 7, a level that exceeds the peak of the bubble period in the late 1980s ( chart 3 ). labor market conditions have been tightening across japan, and the active job openings - to - applicants ratios recently have exceeded 1 in all prefectures, which was not observed even in the bubble period. at the same time, the unemployment rate has declined in a wide range of regions. an improvement in the labor market has been widespread across generations as well. for example, the unemployment rate of the younger generation aged 15 - 24 rose substantially amid the japanese financial crisis of the late 1990s, and declined only moderately for a long time after that ( chart 4 ). however, the situation has changed dramatically in the past few years. the youth unemployment rate has declined to a level below that of the bubble period, and labor market conditions for new graduates have created more of a seller's market than ever before. with the perception of labor shortage heightening further, the number of long - term unemployed workers - - those unemployed for over a year - - has been declining steadily, although it used to be considered quite difficult for them to find a job. in addition, improvement in the employment situation has contributed to providing new job opportunities for those who had not participated in the labor market before. the population aged 15 - 64 that has played a major role in the labor market, or the so - called working - age population, has been declining from the peak in around 2000. on the other hand, the number of employed persons recently has been increasing substantially ( chart 5 ). this is a result of labor participation by women and seniors promoted through improvement in employment together with the development of various labor - related measures by the government. in addition, the poverty rate, which has risen moderately since the 1990s, recently seems to have flattened or declined somewhat. the declines in the youth unemployment rate and long - term unemployment rate, as well as the increase in labor participation by women and seniors, are significant not only in terms of increasing the current employment and production but also strengthening the growth potential of the economy in the future. people acquire skills through actually working each day and thereby

, if the problems become more complex and prolonged, downward pressure on the global economy could heighten not only through the gradual spread of the negative effects on trade activity, but also deterioration in firms'fixed investment stance and cautiousness in financial market sentiment. looking back, the great depression of the 1930s is well known as a period when protectionist policies prevailed around the world. subsequent research suggests that what mainly brought about the significant global economic downturn was severe deflation under fiscal and monetary policies not responding appropriately, rather than protectionist policies. 3 therefore, policy authorities worldwide should bear in mind the importance of fiscal and monetary policy management. furthermore, attention should be paid to the fact that it is difficult to analyze the effects of protectionist moves on the economy. 4 this is partly because trade structure characterized by the network of global supply chains is far more complex compared to that in the 1930s, the share of trade volume in the global economy has increased, and the amount of global capital flows has become massive. the bank will thoroughly examine the consequences of recent developments in the trade friction and their potential effects on japan's economy. b. outlook for prices as for the outlook for prices, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi in japan is likely to increase gradually with the economy continuing on an expanding trend. the outlook for prices is considered to be determined basically by two factors : the supply - demand balance of the economy as a whole and people's expectations for future price developments. regarding the supply - demand balance, the tendency of demand exceeding supply is likely for example, see douglas a. irwin, clashing over commerce : a history of us trade policy ( chicago : university of chicago press, 2017 ), 397 - 400. while traded goods were mainly primary products at the time of the great depression, the share of manufactured goods in trade is large at present. as the proportion of manufactured goods increases among traded goods, trade volume tends to fluctuate to a larger degree in response to changes in income. for details, see douglas a. irwin, trade policy disaster : lessons from the 1930s ( cambridge : mit press, 2012 ), 167n25. to continue with the economy following an expanding trend. as actual wages and prices increase along with this development, people's inflation expectations are expected to rise gradually, and thus moderate inflation is more likely to be achieved. there are various risk factors to the outlook for prices as well. for example, we cannot deny the possibility