( see figure 5 ). the price rise may be a consequence of the expectation that demand will increase, but oil stocks are large and the opec countries have good capacity to increase their production, which should have a restraining effect on the oil price. other commodity prices – metals, foods and other agricultural products – have also risen in recent months ( see figure 6 ). usa the united states is currently suffering its most prolonged recession since the 1940s. it started back in december 2007. according to our most recent forecast, the us economy will shrink by an average of around 3 per cent in 2009. growth is expected to be positive again with effect from next year. since the monetary policy meeting in july the national accounts figures for the second quarter of this year have been published. they showed that gdp fell by only 0. 3 per cent between the first and second quarters of this year, which was slightly better than we anticipated. employment continued to fall in july, but less than expected, and unemployment fell by a tenth of a percentage point, which was better than market expectations. imf, world economic outlook update, july 8 2009. cpi inflation in the united states fell to - 2. 1 per cent in july, but when food and energy prices are excluded it fell to 1. 5 per cent ( see figure 7 ). the underlying inflation rate measured in this way has been relatively stable in recent years and has only declined slightly over the past year. an important condition for a turnaround and stabilisation in the us economy is that house prices touch bottom and begin to rise again. developments in real house prices in the united states since 1950 comprise a good example of a price bubble ( see figure 8 ). the question now is how far house prices will fall before the turnaround comes. the federal reserve notes in its most recent monetary policy report that developments in the housing market remain weak, although there are some signs of an improvement. 3 euro area gdp growth in the euro area remains weak. according to the forecast in the monetary policy report, gdp in the euro area will fall by an average of almost 5 per cent in 2009. next year we are expecting largely zero growth and after that a fairly weak increase. domestic demand in particular is expected to be weak for a long time to come in the euro area. the weak domestic demand means that the euro area is dependent on a boost from abroad – in particular the united states and other important trading partners – to be able to make a recovery. since

elizabeth genia : the papua new guinea economy and managing fx demands in papua new guinea's domestic foreign exchange market speech by ms elizabeth genia, governor of the bank of papua new guinea, at the australia - png business forum, gold coast, australia, 14 may 2024. * * * daba namona, morning tru, and good morning olgeta. i would like to recognise the traditional owners of the land on which we meet, the yugambeh [ yug - um - bay ] people, and pay respect to their elders, past, present and emerging. i extend this acknowledgement to all indigenous leaders here today, from australia, papua new guinea and beyond. i also thank the australia png business council for your exceptional efforts in arranging this forum every year. i am delighted to be part of this session and to be sharing the stage with professor chand for this discussion. let me start with a quick review of the economy and recent developments. the latest estimates from the imf and the world bank anticipate growth for png of 4. 6 percent and 4. 8 percent respectively for 2024. this growth is expected to be driven by agriculture prices and, importantly, by the reopening of the porgera mine. but the slow return of porgera to pre - production levels and the civil unrest in january have moderated the otherwise positive expectations of growth. agricultural exports continue to receive a boost from the increase in global commodity prices in 2022. while prices moderated in 2023, cocoa prices are experiencing significant increases this year following a drought in west africa, a region that normally supplies up to 80 % of global cocoa demand. coffee prices have also risen sharply, in part due to excessively dry conditions in brazil impacting on coffee harvests and supply from that region. the climate will continue to impact the prices of key food crops, and climate change will see changes in producing regions. this is something png will need to monitor, as we will be affected just as surely as other growing regions, and this underscores the need for sustainable farming practices and green finance initiatives. 1 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches but for now, we are benefitting from negative climate outcomes in other regions. we know that at least 80 percent of our population are directly affected by the performance of our agricultural sector, which in turn makes up 20 percent of papua new guinea's gdp. our agriculture exports are the life