action where necessary. boundaries in nance are being redrawn, as new players disrupt markets, or disappear altogether. in payments, for example, we have seen that new rms can often have different business models, can initially target market subsegments, and are often better equipped to utilise data and attract younger clients. we also see a trend to more frictionless payments, with some incumbents struggling to keep pace with technological change. these changes create opportunities but also pose challenges and risks. to deal with these in the decade ahead will require awareness, understanding and agility on the part of consumers, industry and central banks. it ’ s a constant learning process, for everyone. moving from the nancial system to the wider economy, there is considerable uncertainty around the scale and pace of any decline in uk trade now that it has left the single market. the central bank has modelled an eu / uk free trade agreement scenario with the results showing that irish output would be around 3. 5 per cent lower by 2028 than if the uk had remained an eu member. and if wto rules applied, output would be 5 per cent lower. 13 in the long term, what matters is productivity growth. as paul krugman has said, “ productivity isn't everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything. a country ’ s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker. ” 14 the world is experiencing a global productivity slowdown. and as the oecd and the imf have indicated, understanding productivity in the irish economy is important if we want to assess the longer run prospects for ireland ’ s future prosperity. 15 16 productivity, along with the rise of non - bank nance, technological innovation and the future economic relationship with the uk are just a few of the challenges we will face over the next decade. and i haven ’ t even mentioned climate change. so how should we meet these challenges? it ’ s about continuing to focus on the fundamentals, about managing the short term while planning for the medium term, ensuring our frameworks are t - for - purpose and learning the lessons of the past while preparing for the future. it ’ s also about being prepared to challenge ourselves. 17 economic transitions have been a feature of society throughout history. building economic resilience is the most effective way to help societies manage them. 18 there is no one - off solution to the challenge

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