edged back again. brent blend futures prices nevertheless indicate that oil prices will remain high several years ahead. export prices for norwegian natural gas largely follow developments in oil prices with a lag. since autumn 2005, prices for norwegian gas exports have risen substantially according to the quarterly reports of the oil companies statoil and hydro. in the next few years, natural gas will account for a steadily larger share of total petroleum production on the norwegian continental shelf. petroleum investment has reached a high level after three years of strong growth. in 2005, investment was close to nok 87 billion, and it is expected to edge up again this year. the large ormen lange and snøhvit projects have contributed to high petroleum investment, and high oil prices have fuelled activity even at oil fields that have been in production for a long period. the development of the skarv idun fields will contribute to holding up petroleum investment from 2007. information from our regional network suggests that petroleum investment provides considerable impulses to activity in norway ’ s coastal regions. according to the network, suppliers to the petroleum sector are expecting strong growth to continue in the coming months. the level of investment is assumed to remain high next year, before declining somewhat the following year when ormen lange and snøhvit are scheduled for completion. no plans have so far been adopted for new projects of a similar size, but continued high oil prices are expected to contribute to high investment both in exploration and in fields in operation in the years ahead. there are prospects of strong growth in the government pension fund - global. given our assumption for oil price developments ahead ( oil futures ), spending in line with the expected real return on the fund implies that the structural, non - oil deficit may increase by close to nok 15 billion at 2006 prices in both 2008 and 2009. with a period of strong expansion in the norwegian economy, somewhat lower petroleum revenue spending will be in line with the fiscal rule. our projections are based on the assumption that fiscal policy will generate some stimulus to total demand and output in 2008 and 2009, but somewhat less than the expected return on the fund would imply. economic growth in sweden, the uk and the euro area is high. economic developments in china and india remain strong. gdp growth in the us and japan has slowed. consumer price inflation among a number of our trading partners is high as a result of rising energy prices, but the increase in prices for other goods and services remains moderate. continued solid

new year address by the governor of the banque de france – paris, 9 january speech by francois villeroy de galhau, governor of the banque de france, chairman of the acpr press contact : delphine cuny ( delphine. cuny @ banque - france. fr ) page 1 of 5 i would like to start by extending, on behalf of the banque de france and the acpr, our warmest wishes to you with whom we work, day - in, day - out : financial centre players, elected representatives and public officials, and journalists. in the turbulent environment of 2024, we will need more than ever to counterbalance the pessimism of intelligence with the optimism of the will, and to remind ourselves that a full life combines both professional commitment and personal ties. so, first and foremost, i wish you much joy with those you love as well as in all your new projects in 2024. this year promises to be an eventful one : monetary union was 25 years old on 1 january, we will be celebrating 10 years of the european banking union, and france will of course be hosting the olympic games. there will also be two elections of key importance for our country beyond our borders : the european elections in june and the us elections in november. because the year ends " in four ", i would like to follow a process of simple addition and share 2 + 2 wishes with you. * * the first two wishes follow on from those i made before you a year ago. i would like to return to the economic progress achieved in 2023, and invite us to " finish the job ". 1. 1 less inflation and more stabilisation inflation remains the main concern of our fellow citizens, and our main mission as a central bank. at the beginning of 2023, i stated here before you that french inflation would pass its peak in the first half of the year – it has since declined from 7. 3 % in february to 4. 1 % in december i – and that we should reach the terminal interest rate " by the summer " – this occurred in early september. i also made a “ commitment ” that barring any new shocks we would bring inflation down towards 2 % by 2025 at the latest. a year ago, many people were expressing polite – or not so polite – scepticism. today, our forecast is much more widely accepted and believed : average inflation of 2. 5 % in 2024 and