world trade. - industrial production also shows signs of stabilization and indicators, such as retail sales, travel receipts and new car registrations, suggest that the recession is gradually coming to an end. soft data ( such as the economic sentiment indicator and the purchasing managers ’ index ) indicate a more optimistic outlook for the months ahead. - lastly, encouraging indications are emerging with regard to employment. over the first five months of the year, dependent employment flows have been positive and significantly higher than previous years. however, unemployment still remains exceptionally high and is expected to fall only gradually. recovery in 2014 is feasible overall, recent developments in the greek economy support the forecast of a gradual return to positive growth in 2014. by 2014 : - the fiscal drag will be considerably lower compared to previous years ; - competitiveness gains and higher external demand for greek products and services will bear fruit in terms of better export growth ; - liquidity constraints will loosen further ; and - the benefits of structural and institutional reforms will be more evident. however, recovery hinges upon, first, a reversal of the decline in investment and, second, a faster growth of exports. bis central bankers ’ speeches improvements in business and overall confidence strengthen the prospect of a recovery in investment as : ( i ) firms are gaining access to alternative sources of financing, such as corporate bond issues ; ( ii ) the absorption of eu funds has increased ( by april 2014, the absorption rates for the programming period 2007 – 2013 rose to 79. 3 %, bringing greece to third place in the eu ) ; ( iii ) the creation of a greek investment fund will have a positive effect on foreign capital inflows ; and ( iv ) the first quarter of the year marked the restart of major infrastructural projects. the second factor expected to contribute favourably to growth is a rise in exports. historically, export performance has been closely related to cost competitiveness, in particular unit labor costs relative to trading partners. in fact, over the period 2000 – 2009, wage competitiveness has declined by about 25 %. exports of goods and services ( excluding receipts from shipping ) have underperformed exports of the eu17 by a similar margin. however, this close relationship between wage competitiveness and relative export performance broke down after 2009 : while wage competitiveness has improved by more than 25 % since 2009, exports of goods and services ( excluding receipts from shipping ) have outperformed eu17 exports by just 5 %. historical correlations would have predicted an outper

. at the same time, though, we also see certain sectors of the economy that have suffered less or no losses from the crisis, but still do not reduce – as one would reasonably expect – their non - performing loan ratios. regarding the industries that are directly related to tourism ( accommodation and food service activities ), during the crisis their shares in terms of both value added and employment have increased. at the same time, however, the non - performing exposures as a ratio of total loans to these sectors has also risen, to 54. 3 % at the end of the first half of 2016, a level much higher than the corresponding npe ratio for the total economy ( 45. 1 % ). this is a phenomenon that needs to be investigated and addressed. 3rd debt the third major challenge lying ahead pertains to the launch of in - depth discussions with our partners on debt relief measures. debt relief is crucial, in both the long and the short run. for, if the greek debt is seen as unsustainable, the country ’ s predicted exit to markets in 2018 will not be feasible. therefore talks have to begin now and conclude as soon as possible. besides, the discussion of ways to alleviate the greek debt is a commitment undertaken by our partners as early as in 2012, and reaffirmed last may, but not fulfilled as yet. * * * the role of tourism in the new growth model unquestionably, the problems i mentioned are large and hard to solve. but i believe that we can overcome them, if we act with prudence, determination and mutual understanding. i also believe that the greek economy has the ability and the potential to return to a sustainable upward path through a new extroverted growth model, taking advantage of its strong comparative advantages and the opportunities presented. in this process, tourism has a key role to play, for the following reasons : it is by definition an extroverted industry. it has been comparatively less hit by the recession and has preserved its productive capacity. especially from 2013 onwards, it has shown remarkable growth performance, as i already mentioned. second, it represents a sizeable share of gdp. in 2015, travel receipts contributed directly about 8 % of gdp, compared with 5 % in 2008. in terms of macroeconomic multipliers, various studies estimate that every euro in tourist spending adds €2. 2 - 2. 6 to gdp. research also suggests that the sectors which benefit the most from the development of the tourism