the united states continue to look favorable. a key question in assessing those longer - run prospects is whether productivity growth in the years ahead will more closely resemble the substantial gains evident since 1995 or whether it will revert to the weaker performance of the period from 1973 to 1995. the most recent record of productivity growth reinforces the view that future growth will follow the higher trend of the past halfdecade. productivity is a cyclical variable that typically falls in recessions. however, during the most recent downturn, productivity never declined and instead continued to grow at a fairly strong pace. moreover, after september 11, many economists feared that productivity growth would suffer a severe setback as businesses diverted resources to improving security and developing contingencies in the event of another terrorist attack. instead, according to labor department data released last week, output per hour in the nonfarm business sector has risen 5. 3 percent over the past four quarters, its best performance since 1983. how should we interpret this truly extraordinary performance? cyclical forces probably played some role. and, as i noted, increased caution has probably pushed many companies to find ways to get more productivity from their workers. but these efficiency gains were likely facilitated by the capital investments of recent years. adjusting to new technologies takes time, and it is plausible that such an adjustment process has continued to boost productivity this year. while cyclical forces and lags in the assimilation of new technologies have been important, their influence is likely to be transitory. more fundamentally, i believe that the trend in productivity has ratcheted up, and this development has been the driving force behind the recent extraordinary productivity growth. thus, it seems to me that with last week ’ s easing in monetary policy, the pieces are in place to engender a gradual strengthening in economic activity in coming quarters. with the real federal funds rate now below zero, monetary policy is providing considerable support to the interest - sensitive sectors of the economy. similarly, fiscal policy remains conducive to growth. the uncertain mood among businesspeople - - and more recently households - - may continue to damp spending for a while longer. but with inventories now seemingly in better alignment with sales and with much of the restructuring associated with the high - tech overhang now behind us, some important sources of economic weakness over the past two years should begin to disappear. as a result, with underlying productivity gains likely to remain strong, business profits and household income should resume their uptrend, setting

transformations in economic and financial relations globally force us to re - think the design of economic policies in order to better contribute to the progress of our society. in particular, these forums are instrumental for central banks in its role of providing guidance for economic policies that are not in their mandates. let me add that in order to exert this role of assessing public policies, central banks need to be granted with political and operational independence, in order to provide recommendations free from political pressure or vested interests. the theme of this conference, financial integration and inclusive development, is particularly timely at this current juncture of the world economy. global economic growth is at its lowest level since the global financial crisis, partly as a consequence of the high level of uncertainty surrounding trade and international relations. this weakness of the global economic landscape is adding to the new challenges that have emerged over the last decades : population aging, migration, security threats, the emergence of new economic and political powers, and climate change, to mention only some. and this evolution has taken place in an era of increasing globalization, that is being threatened by the emergence 2 / 3 of protectionist measures, and of digitalization and rapid development of new technologies. together, these developments constitute a new frontier for policies that make it necessary to promote mutual understanding and make extensive coordinated efforts in the field of policies. in order to preserve the benefits derived from financial interconnectedness and technological innovation, it is now of the essence to put in place an internationally agreed response that allows to achieve the benefits of innovation while ensuring the mitigation of its potential risks. policy - makers have the responsibility to support the research and analysis to base to foster growth and fight inequalities. in this conference we are going to debate on a number of challenges that our countries are currently facing : from technological innovations in finance to migration flows in search for better opportunities, going through increasing financial interdependences or the need of boosting financial education. i have no doubt that the quality of the discussions we have today will allow us to deepen our understanding of these challenges and, hopefully, allow us to draw some useful conclusion in terms of economic policy. i leave the floor now to mr. isidro gonzalez, deputy secretary general of the union for the mediterranean, thanking him as well as you all for your presence here today, and thanking mr. senen florensa, president of the executive committee of iemed, for the cooperation in the organisation of this event. now