the higher the gvc participation of a country, the greater are the gains from trade as it allows participating countries to benefit from the comparative advantage of others in the gvc. more than two - thirds of world trade occurs through gvcs. 18. world bank ( 2020 ) 3 research findings suggest that one per cent increase in gvc participation can boost per capita income levels of a country by more than one per cent. india ’ s gvc integration, as measured by the gvc participation index, has been low ( 34. 0 per cent, as a ratio of total gross exports ) relative to the asean countries ( 45. 9 per cent as a ratio to total gross exports ). this needs to change. 19. global shifts in gvcs in response to covid - 19 and other developments will create opportunities for india. besides focusing on diversifying sources of imports, it may also be necessary to focus on greater strategic trade integration, including in the form of early completion of bilateral free trade agreements with the us, eu and uk. v. infrastructure as force multiplier for growth 20. in india, the progress made on physical infrastructure in the country in the last five years needs to be viewed as no less than a dynamic shift. road construction, the primary mode of transportation in india, has increased from 17 kms per day in 2015 - 16 to close to about 29 kms per day in the last two years. india is the third largest domestic market for civil aviation in the world with 142 airports. on airport connectivity, india ranked 4th among 141 countries in the global competitiveness report, 2019 of the world economic forum. in telecommunication, the overall tele - density ( number of telephone connections per 100 persons ) in india at end of february 2020 was 87. 7 per cent. growth of internet and broadband penetration in india has increased at a rapid pace. total broadband connections rose almost ten times – from 610 lakh in 2014 to 6811 lakh in february 2020 – enabling large expansion in internet traffic. india is now the global leader in monthly data consumption, with average consumption per subscriber per month increasing 168 times from 62 mb in 2014 to 10. 4 gb at end - 2019. the cost of data has also declined to one of the lowest globally, enabling affordable internet access for millions of citizens. 21. the shipping industry is the backbone for external merchandise trade as around 95 per cent of trading volume is transported through ships by sea routes. the average turnaround

provide ongoing support, as capacity utilisation is high and profitability has been sustained. at the same time, as a result of the improved economic conditions and wage moderation, employment and labour force participation have increased significantly and unemployment rates have fallen to levels not seen for 25 years. while being dampened by higher commodity prices, consumption growth should continue to contribute to economic expansion, in line with rising employment. these factors are also reflected in the march 2008 ecb staff macroeconomic projections. annual real gdp growth is projected to lie in the range of 1. 3 % to 2. 1 % in 2008, and to be between 1. 3 % and 2. 3 % in 2009. in comparison with the december 2007 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges projected for real gdp growth in 2008 and 2009 have been revised downwards, reflecting weaker global demand, stronger pressure from commodity prices and less favourable financing conditions than were foreseen in december. available forecasts from international organisations broadly confirm this outlook. in the view of the governing council, uncertainty about the prospects for economic growth remains unusually high. downside risks to the outlook for economic activity continue to exist. they relate mainly to a potentially broader than currently expected impact of financial market developments. further downside risks stem from the scope for additional commodity price rises, protectionist pressures and the possibility of disorderly developments owing to global imbalances. with regard to price developments, according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, the annual hicp inflation rate was 3. 2 % in february 2008, unchanged from january. this confirms the strong upward pressure on inflation in the short term, stemming mainly from the increases in energy and food prices in recent months. looking ahead, we expect a more protracted period of relatively high rates of inflation than we did a few months ago. the annual hicp inflation rate will most likely remain significantly above 2 % in the coming months and moderate only gradually later in the year. the march 2008 ecb staff macroeconomic projections foresee annual hicp inflation of between 2. 6 % and 3. 2 % in 2008, and between 1. 5 % and 2. 7 % in 2009. compared with the december 2007 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the projected ranges for hicp inflation have shifted upwards, mainly reflecting significant additional increases in food and energy prices. it is important to recall that these staff projections are based on a number of assumptions which are of a purely technical nature and unrelated to policy intentions.