the unexpected economic strength has been the resilience and adaptability of canadian households and businesses. lockdowns through the second wave had much less economic impact than they did through the first wave. and as restrictions were eased, the economy bounced back quickly with substantial job gains in february and march. the third wave is a new setback, and we can expect some of these job gains to be reversed. but the performance of the economy in recent months has increased our confidence in the underlying strength in the recovery. with the vaccine rollout progressing, we are expecting strong consumption - led growth in the second half of this year. fiscal stimulus from the federal and provincial governments will also make an important contribution to growth. strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a solid rebound in exports and business investment, leading to a more broad - based recovery. overall, we now project that the economy will expand by around 6½ percent this year, slowing to about 3¾ percent in 2022 and 3¼ percent in 2023. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches you won ’ t be surprised to hear that we also spent some time discussing what is happening in the housing market. the pandemic has led to some unique circumstances. with so many households working and studying at home, we see many people wanting more living space. and interest rates have been unusually low, making borrowing more affordable. while the resulting house price increases are rooted in fundamentals, we are seeing some signs of extrapolative expectations and speculative behaviour. given elevated levels of household debt and the risks that households may overstretch in the face of rising housing prices, we welcome the recent proposal by the superintendent of financial institutions to introduce a fixed floor to the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages. new measures just announced in the federal budget will also be helpful. we are watching developments in the housing market very closely, and we will have more to say about this in our financial system review next month. the governing council also spent time discussing estimates of the amount of slack in the economy and the outlook for potential growth. with the economy proving more resilient to the pandemic and vaccines rolling out, we are hopeful there will be less labour - market scarring and less lost capacity than we earlier feared. bankruptcies have been low, and surveys of investment intentions and our own business outlook survey both suggest that many companies are speeding up investments in digital technologies. these factors are reflected in our decision to

recovery evolves in line with or stronger than in our latest projection, then the economy won ’ t need as much qe stimulus over time. further adjustments to our qe program will be gradual, and we will be deliberate both in our assessment of incoming data and in the communication of our analysis. we are committed to providing the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective. with that, let me stop and turn to you for questions. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches