schemes, it is natural that some loans are going to become npls. financial stability remains sound with banks'robust capital buffers, high liquidity, and high provisioning levels relative to npls. furthermore, s & p expects npl to be 3. 3 % and 3. 5 % in 2024 and 2025 respectively, lower than previous forecast of 5 % for 2024. some high yield corporate bonds may face delayed payments and rollover difficulty due to idiosyncratic reasons, but not a systemic problem. moreover, the scope of impact is limited since high yield bonds only account for 7 % of the whole market and holders are concentrated in high net - worth individuals. thb volatility is high compared to regional peers from various reasons. ( thb depreciated about 6 % year - to - date ) 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the uncertain magnitude of advanced economies'monetary policy direction has contributed to the volatility. concerns on the domestic front last year led to 9. 9 billion usd outflow from equity and bonds markets. ( 2024 year - to - date outflow dropped down to 1. 6 billion usd ). however, external stability remains safe and solid, given current account surplus, high international reserves, and low external debts. part iii : if the economy continues to recover, why do people feel like it isn't? despite ongoing economic recovery, many people, especially low - income group, might not feel better off since growth is distributed unevenly. 40 % of consumption growth last year were contributed by only 10 % of households, especially high - income group. from sectoral perspective, spending was also concentrated in services ( services contributed about 80 % of consumption growth ), especially in hotel and restaurant which involves only 8 % of total employees or around 3. 2 million persons. hence, workers in other sectors might not feel the recovery as strongly as the workers in these sectors. on the income side, non - farm employee's income improved by 10 % compared to pre - covid level. but the income growth distribution was concentrated in certain groups. 9 million self - employed workers are still worse off with 9 % lower income than the pre - covid level. ( as of q4 / 23 ) furthermore, high debt burdens and high costs of living make people feel worse off. ( household debt is at 90. 9 % of gdp in q3 / 23, higher than sustainable threshold at 80 % /

monetary union is not viable in the absence of a banking union. more recently, with the recovery in the euro area still fragile, new geopolitical tensions have led to an unprecedented refugee crisis and increased uncertainty. finally, matters such as the consequences of brexit, different approaches among member states regarding banking union, and the slow progress in establishing a single european deposit insurance scheme, have been hindering further progress in securing the financial system architecture needed to enhance stability. ssm has been the catalyst for the banking union of the eu. it provides a framework for common rules and policies across the euro area banking sectors ; it enhances single supervisory treatment over segmented national practices. but it also has to cope with increased uncertainty in two areas : the possibility of major changes in the future regulatory framework and the way that new regulation is going to be applied. bis central bankers ’ speeches