. global measures of uncertainty have fallen from their record highs earlier in the year, but remain at elevated levels. and the recovery is incomplete because there is still much ground to recover. for the euro area, a similar assessment applies. the incoming data show a strong recovery, but also one that is uneven, uncertain and incomplete. our latest macroeconomic projections signal that output will rebound in the third and fourth quarters by 8. 4 % and 3. 1 %, respectively, broadly in line with the expected pace set out in the june projections. growth is projected to average - 8 % in 2020, 5 % in 2021 and 3. 2 % in 2022. but only towards the end of the projection horizon is output projected to return to its pre - pandemic level. both hard and soft indicators have rebounded sharply since april, but in most cases they remain notably below pre - pandemic levels. for example, by june industrial production had recovered around two - thirds of the trough, but still remained approximately 11 % down on february. highfrequency indicators such as mobility data, electricity consumption and credit card transactions displayed progressive improvement in july and august, although these data are highly seasonal which prevents us from drawing strong conclusions. the unevenness of the recovery is highlighted by the divergence between services and industry, in contrast to the crisis a decade ago when activity in these sectors moved in tandem. the 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches services pmi declined to 50. 5 in august from 54. 7 in july, while the manufacturing pmi continued to improve marginally. retail trade has returned to pre - pandemic levels but expenditure on several consumer services remains exceptionally low. with consumer and business services accounting for 55 % of the euro area economy, it is clear that a full recovery requires a more significant rebound in these sectors. indeed, around five million fewer people were employed in the second quarter of this year relative to the end of 2019, and if the current strength of the rebound does not continue – or fails to spread across all sectors – it is unlikely that they will all be re - employed in the near term. while the various job - retention schemes introduced by governments have so far been effective in cushioning the fall in income and preventing a more precipitous decline in employment, and the numbers of people enrolled in those schemes are falling as activity picks up, keeping job support schemes in place is critical to avoid a sharp increase in unemployment later in the year.

“ selling ” sepa to the wider public. you may also be aware that eu regulation 2560 – the so - called price regulation which was enacted in 2001 – is currently up for review. regulation 2560 applies to the customer - to - bank domain. it is the clear intention to broaden the scope of regulation 2560 from credit transfers and card payments to include direct debits. so, at the end of this review process, banks will very likely face a situation where the prices for cross - border direct debits will not be allowed to be higher than the prices for national direct debits. this may have an additional dampening effect on prices. in any case, an increase in national prices, as a result of the review, would clearly be against the spirit of the review and severely affect banks ’ reputation and credibility in the eyes of their customers. multilateral interchange fee for direct debits costs and prices are not only a matter of concern in the customer - to - bank domain, but in the bank - to - bank domain too. the multilateral balancing payment ( mbp ) – or “ multilateral interchange fee ” as i prefer to call it, because that is what it essentially is – has proven to be a thorny issue. today ’ s practice regarding multilateral interchange fees ( or “ mifs ” ) for national direct debits varies across countries. so, what should be done for the sepa direct debit scheme? a european solution has to be found by the banks which is also agreeable to the european competition authority. but sepa direct debits have to be rolled out in a little more than one year from now. this will hardly be enough time to find a comprehensive solution that meets all needs and answers all concerns. we face a situation where bankers run the risk of not being able to deliver the direct debits by november 2009. this is not acceptable, because sepa direct debits are a vital piece in the sepa puzzle. it would threaten the very existence of a single euro payments area, run counter to the goals of the lisbon agenda, reverse all the work and efforts invested in this project, and throw the payments sector back into the “ dark ages ” of fragmentation along national borders. i would therefore like to test an idea with you. as i said before, we need a european solution, but we won ’ t have it ready in one year ’ s time. defining and implementing this solution