policy rates, particularly in the euro area ( slide 9 ). the trend line is much flatter than in the past – that is, markets expect less monetary policy tightening for each incremental improvement in the medium - term inflation outlook. such correlation patterns do not imply causality. but they do suggest that the market may have started internalising our new forward guidance, especially regarding the conditions that we need to see to start raising policy rates. 3 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches first, we want to see inflation reaching 2 % well ahead of the end of our projection horizon and we want it to remain at 2 % thereafter. and, second, realised progress in underlying inflation needs to be sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2 % over the medium term. in other words, given the significant uncertainty surrounding inflation projections many years out, we want to see clearer signs that inflation is reliably moving towards our 2 % target. this will imply a more patient reaction function, consistent with the previous scatterplot analysis, and hence may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target. two additional developments corroborate the view that investors have started internalising our more patient reaction function. one relates to the distribution of risks around the future interest rate outlook. after the announcement of our new strategy and forward guidance, the risk distribution around the future evolution of the 3 - month euribor has been truncated from the top, meaning that investors have effectively priced out contingencies that foreshadow a very steep increase in policy rates ( slide 10 ). such expectations are consistent with our new september ecb staff projections, which show that inflation is expected to remain below our 2 % target in the medium term. the second development relates to the distribution of risks around the future inflation outlook. since the beginning of the year, the balance of risks priced in by investors has noticeably shifted to the upside. option prices, for example, currently suggest that, in the united states, the market attaches a probability of around 80 % that inflation over the next five years will, on average, be above the federal reserve ’ s 2 % aim ( left - hand chart, slide 11 ). 4 in the euro area, the priced - in probabilities are smaller but have also increased visibly to nearly 40 %. this is also increasingly reflected in the euro area bond market. the compensation that investors demand for uncertainty around the future inflation outlook – the inflation risk

development in indian country. i greatly value the research and thought leadership of the cicd, as well as their input on policy decisions regarding indian country and work to deepen our engagement with tribal communities. the covid - 19 pandemic the covid - 19 pandemic is bringing hardship to all our communities, and the health of tribal communities is suffering disproportionately. hospitalization rates for native americans are 4. 3 times the rate for whites, adjusting for age, according to the centers for disease control and prevention. 4 we are thinking about those in indian country who have lost loved ones and those who are struggling with the virus. the covid - 19 pandemic is also causing significant economic hardship in indian country, affecting the many small businesses that are the backbone of tribal economies. 5 indian country faces significant challenges associated with “ various data collection and reporting issues, such as small sample size or large margins of error, ” which are sometimes referred to by the term asterisk nation. 6 this lack of data makes it challenging to evaluate how economic developments are impacting indian country. to assess the real - time economic impacts of covid - 19 on indian country ’ s economic centers for disease control and prevention ( cdc ), covidview ( atlanta : cdc, november 5, 2020 ), https : / / www. cdc. gov / coronavirus / 2019 - ncov / covid - data / covidview / index. html. https : / / www. minneapolisfed. org / article / 2020 / indian - country - small - businesses - face - strong - headwinds - incovid - 19 - recovery. september 8, 2020. federal reserve bank of minneapolis. “ american indians and alaska natives may be described as the ‘ asterisk nation ’ because an asterisk, instead of data point, is often used in data displays when reporting racial and ethnic data, ” according to the ncai policy research center ( 2020 ), “ the asterisk nation, ” 2020, https : / / www. ncai. org / policy - researchcenter / research - data / data. - 3experience in the covid - 19 conversation, the federal reserve bank of minneapolis conducted a series of pulse surveys with tribal governments, tribally owned enterprises, and tribal member businesses, as well as hosted meetings with tribal leaders and national organizations. 7 the surveys found that two - thirds of businesses in indian country saw a