guide our assumptions about the magnitude and persistence of the effects of supply disruptions on economic activity and inflation. 3 overall, our analysis suggested the supply factors were holding back productive capacity by more than their impact on demand, suggesting the output gap was likely narrower than projected in july. the pandemic ’ s unusual nature makes it hard to pinpoint when the impact of these supply disruptions will peak. in october, we estimated that this would happen sometime toward the end of 2021, before gradually dissipating over 2022. but gauging how quickly supply issues will be resolved — and hence how much productive capacity exists compared with demand — is difficult. 3 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches as a result, we are looking at a wide range of data, including labour market indicators, to assess the amount of slack in the economy, and our decisions will increasingly depend on how these data evolve. our decision yesterday so where do things stand now? let me first turn to some good news. last week ’ s labour force survey provided a very strong indication that canada ’ s job market has largely recovered in most sectors. workers have rejoined the workforce, notably in the service sector, and companies have hired to meet demand. on top of this, job vacancies across the country are near record highs. moreover, since our most recent report in october, economic data continue to show a rebound in activity associated with reopening the economy. third - quarter gdp data showed impressive consumption - led growth of 5. 4 percent — in line with our october forecast. that said, the level of gdp was still about 1½ percent below where it was at the end of 2019 before the pandemic began. and the flooding in british columbia is likely to temporarily weigh on growth in the fourth quarter. however, in terms of supply constraints and inflation dynamics, the picture remains mixed. while there are early signs that some supply constraints are easing, such as for semiconductors, most constraints remain largely unresolved. moreover, as governing council noted in this week ’ s policy discussions, the floods in british columbia are likely to worsen backlogs at the port of vancouver and disrupt shipping by rail and truck. then there is the omicron variant. we expect to learn more about how this will impact public health and the economy in the weeks to come. hopefully, omicron will turn out not to be too serious, but there is a risk that it could hold back services consumption. in

mark carney : canada ’ s new polymer bank notes – celebrating canada ’ s achievements at the frontiers of innovation remarks by mr mark carney, governor of the bank of canada, at the presentation of new polymer bank notes, bank of canada, ottawa, ontario, 20 june 2011. * * * i am very proud to represent the bank at this historic unveiling of a new generation of bank notes. secure, durable and innovative, these new notes are at the frontier of bank note technology. they will set a benchmark worldwide and will help maintain the confidence canadians already have in their currency. designing and issuing bank notes that you can trust is an important element of the bank ’ s mandate to promote the economic and financial welfare of our country. this new series of bank notes combines innovative technology and canadian ingenuity. they were developed by a team of physicists, chemists, engineers and other experts from the bank of canada and from across the bank note industry. this work was borne out of necessity. beginning in 2001, counterfeiting in canada increased dramatically, to levels that were very high by canadian and international standards. by 2004, counterfeiting was at a historic peak of 470 counterfeit notes detected per one million notes in circulation. the bank responded with an aggressive strategy to deter counterfeiting, which included training retailers to recognize genuine notes, working with law enforcement to catch and prosecute criminals, and improving the quality of those notes in circulation. we succeeded. today there are only 35 counterfeit notes detected per million notes – a more than ten - fold reduction. of course, even one counterfeit note is one too many! that is why the bank is continuing to work closely with our partners in law enforcement and that is why we are investing heavily in new technology to stay ahead of counterfeiting threats. and we are. the polymer notes we are introducing today are unique. there is simply no other currency like it. these new notes combine transparency, holography and other sophisticated security elements. these new bills are not only more secure ; they are also more cost effective. in addition, we have independently verified that the environmental footprint of polymer notes will be smaller than that of currency made from cotton - based bank note paper. the new bills will last at least 2. 5 times longer than cotton - based bank note paper bills, and after being removed from circulation, for the first time in canada, they will be recycled into other products. safer, cheaper, and greene