economies, including advanced and emerging economies, and the national authorities ’ conduct of macroeconomic policy. the current state of the economy based on the developments in overseas economies, i will now turn to japan ’ s economy. japan ’ s economy has been picking up due mainly to the improvement in overseas economies and the effects of various policy measures. exports, mainly to high growing emerging and commodity - exporting economies, have been increasing since the spring of 2009. correspondingly, the level of capacity utilization in domestic firms is gradually picking up. although there is not yet sufficient momentum to support a self - sustaining recovery, consumption, backed mainly by demand for eco - friendly automobiles and electrical appliances that has been underpinned by policy measures, is picking up. moreover, it has become evident that the decline in business fixed investment has been leveling out. the economy is likely to continue picking up. on the back of favorable conditions in overseas economies, exports and production are likely to increase somewhat more than projected and, albeit with some swings, to perform firmly. policy support will continue for the time being, as represented by an extension of the purchase support measures for electrical appliances that have been highly effective. in addition, the fact that housing starts have started to increase is a welcoming sign. when houses are built, there are spillover effects on electrical appliances and furniture. markets have once been concerned about the so - called “ double dip, ” but we judge that the possibility of the economy experiencing another plunge has fairly receded. then, how about the sustainability of the recovery going forward? the point is, when the effects of economic stimulus measures taken during the financial crisis dissipate, whether there is sufficient momentum for a self - sustaining recovery in private demand to offset the waning effects of stimulus measures. if private demand has not recovered sufficiently, the once concerned plunge in the economy will take place at a delayed timing. however, if the improvements in exports and production are sustained, capacity utilization will improve and profits will recover through an increase in sales. then conditions will be in place for business fixed investment to recover, and the broad - based recovery will be in sight, and it will gradually extend to small firms that compose the bases of industries and to households through wages and dividends. if the uptrend continues, to the extent the runaway is long, the base for economic recovery will firm up. the timing of the recovery spreading over to small firms and households needs to be considered with a certain margin. firms

- age poverty, education issues, income and asset inequality, and dualism in the labor market, we should not limit our research scope to solely monetary policy. let's say we successfully win the fight against inflation. even so, high levels of prices will still remain as a burden on the cost of living, and this cannot be managed solely through monetary policy. in order to reduce korea's high costs for essentials compared to major economies, we need to ponder more foundational solutions, such as diversifying supply channels and reforming the distribution system ( im et al., 2024 ). the low birth rate & an aging population, through the spiral of regional imbalances & overconcentration in the capital, have been hampering korea's growth potential for a long time ( chung et al., 2023 ; hwang et al., 2023 ). we urgently need to find a way to break this vicious cycle. the high level of household debt also needs to be controlled so it doesn't hinder financial stabilization. recently, the debt ratio decreased due to the upward revision of nominal gdp after the national account base year was changed. it remains unchanged, however, that the household debt issue is still a threat to the korean economy, so we must continue working hard to stabilize it downward ( lee & kang, 2023 ). we cannot expect sustainable growth without addressing these structural problems, as we will face a huge social shift in the light of climate change and ai innovations. this explains why the bank of korea needs to become a top - tier think tank in korea by advocating for structural reform and working closely with the government and related institutions, not only just conducting monetary policy. various interest groups may create some noise as change is brought to a deep - rooted structure. indeed, some might be skeptical of or criticize the bank of korea, which has no legal authority to do so, for dealing with sensitive social issues. however, because the bank of korea is free from those interests and has no legal authority, it can analyze the current status from a more neutral perspective and propose solutions from the longterm view. with a responsibility to provide a blueprint for economic growth, we must continue playing our role in offering alternatives for structural reform. however, even our policy proposals will be nothing but empty echoes if they are not backed by expertise. for our policy messages to resonate and gain consensus, the quality of our research should gain trust from the outside the