acri association of italian savings banks 2019 world savings day address by the governor of the bank of italy ignazio visco rome, 31 october 2019 the economic outlook the trade tensions, the slowdown in china and the persistent uncertainty concerning the united kingdom ’ s withdrawal from the european union have continued to affect the global economy. international trade, which has been declining since last autumn, seems to have contracted in the second quarter as well ; for the year as a whole, it is expected to increase but at a rate of less than 1 per cent, the lowest since 2009. in recent weeks, the international monetary fund revised downwards its growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 for nearly every country. going forward, global demand may benefit from the stimulus measures implemented in the major economies, but the risks remain significant and are aggravated by the high level of public and private sector indebtedness in many countries. in the euro area, the sharp drop in industrial activity, especially in germany, has thus far been partially offset by the performance of the service sector. however, this sector has also started to show signs of weakness. among the main economies, gdp decreased in germany while it continued to grow in france and spain in the second quarter. if the contraction in the german economy persists, it will inevitably spread to other countries. in italy, economic activity seems to have remained substantially unchanged during the summer, after having grown just slightly in the second quarter. the manufacturing sector has suffered heavily from the close production and trade ties with germany, as well as from the negative effects stemming from the global context ; the sector ’ s weakness seems to have been offset by a slight expansion in services and construction. in the surveys carried out by the bank of italy between september and october, firms expressed less unfavourable opinions on the economic situation and on the trend in demand for their own products in comparison with the opinions expressed at the start of the year. the higher planned investment likely also reflects the reintroduction of tax incentives in april ; instead, firms that sell in germany further downsized their expenditure plans. despite the contraction in world trade, exports continued to grow in the second quarter ; italy ’ s current account surplus has helped to further reduce its net foreign debtor position, which is now close to balance. the new tariffs applicable to the european union, announced by the united states administration, will affect a limited share of italian exports to the us but the indirect effects could be significant. thanks to the decline in uncertainty surrounding

inclusiveness is not only an antidote to inequality, it is also a powerful driver of economic development and resilience. that is why we need to pursue inclusive growth. in labour markets, o. bandiera, a. kotia, i. lindenlaub, c. moser and a. prat, “ meritocracy across countries ”, nber wp no. 32375, 2024. w. dauth, o. schlenker and s. findeisen, “ organized labor versus robots? evidence from micro data ”, iza dp no. 19192, 2024. l. lagos, “ union bargaining power and the amenity - wage tradeoff ”, iza dp no. 17034, 2024. c. lipowski, a. salomons and u. zierahn - weilage, “ expertise at work : new technologies, new skills, and worker impacts ”, zew dp no. 24 - 044, 2024. j. m. barrero, n. bloom and s. j. davis, “ the evolution of work from home ”, journal of economic perspectives, 2023. this means tackling the barriers that have long marginalized certain groups, including migrants and women. the literature has increasingly recognized the important role of immigrants in the economy – in particular their contribution to innovation, labour market fluidity and female participation – and has found that their skills are primarily complementary to those of natives. 7 another important aspect, that has received less attention, is the impact of highskilled immigration on firms. a paper on this topic, to be presented tomorrow, demonstrates the positive impact of high - skilled migration on firm performance and employment. 8 regardless of how important these aspects are, we cannot avoid mentioning the host of challenges posed by the ageing of advanced societies, a particularly pressing concern in italy. the political debate has often focused on illegal immigration, but awareness is growing that a proper management of migration flows is important to counter the decline in labour force caused by ageing. another part of the solution to the ageing problem must come from increasing labour force participation. policies in this area are also essential, and involve, inter alia, promoting female participation in the labour market ( another pressing concern in italy ). regarding the study of gender gaps, we are honoured to have as our second keynote speaker professor claudia olivetti, a leading economist in this important field.