. 0 source : central bank of chile. table 1 domestic scenario ( variacion anual, porcentaje ) 2018 ( f ) jun. 18 report gdp mining gdp non - mining gdp domestic demand domestic demand ( w / o inventory change ) gross fixed capital formation total consumption goods and services exports goods and services imports current account ( % gdp ) ahorro nacional bruto ( % del pib ) gross fixed capital formation 1. 5 - 2. 0 1. 8 3. 1 1. 8 - 1. 1 2. 7 - 0. 9 4. 7 - 1. 5 20. 6 21. 6 2019 ( f ) sep. 18 report jun. 18 report 2020 ( f ) sep. 18 report jun. 18 report sep. 18 report 3. 25 - 4. 0 4. 0 - 4. 5 3. 25 - 4. 25 3. 25 - 4. 25 3. 0 - 4. 0 2. 75 - 3. 75 4. 1 3. 7 4. 5 3. 6 5. 2 6. 7 - 2. 1 20. 3 21. 6 4. 6 4. 1 5. 0 3. 8 4. 9 6. 2 - 2. 2 20. 3 21. 7 3. 9 3. 6 4. 5 3. 4 3. 4 3. 8 - 2. 5 20. 6 21. 9 3. 7 3. 7 4. 5 3. 4 4. 2 4. 4 - 2. 6 20. 5 22. 1 3. 5 3. 6 3. 9 3. 5 2. 5 2. 6 - 2. 6 20. 7 22. 2 3. 3 3. 7 3. 9 3. 6 2. 8 2. 8 - 0. 3 20. 5 22. 4 ( f ) forecast. source : central bank of chile. figure 6 us - china trade ( percent of each country's gdp ) 35 35 united states other imports chinese imports30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 china other imports us imports 30 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 source : bloomberg. figure 7 nominal exchange rate and multilateral measures real exchange rate ( index, 2017 - 2018 = 100 ) ( index, 1986 = 100 ) mer - 5 oer mer 2003 - 2017 average tcr mer - x jul. jul. ( 1 ) dotted vertical line shows punteada corresponde al ci

percent to 3. 0 percent between march and june. the baseline scenario assumes that the economy will slowly regain strength towards the second half of this year, with annual expansion increasing towards the latter months of 2014. this projection assumes some degree of investment payback, given the costs of internal and external financing. the mpr has been lowered by 100 basis points over the past few quarters and, as already mentioned, long - term interest rates are at their lowest in recorded history, even below those that prevailed in the 2009 recession. also risk premiums have diminished. there is also the effect of net exports, part of which we saw in the first quarter, resulting from both higher prices in dollars and the reallocation of internal resources derived from the real depreciation of the currency. add that the developed world will perform better. finally, there is the impulse coming from public spending, particularly investment, because of the low budget execution of 2013. in the opposite direction point the aforesaid deterioration in business confidence and the downward revisions to the investment project agenda made by the chilean capital goods corporation for 2014. the 2014 current account deficit forecast is revised downwards mainly because of the foreseen deceleration in investment and a slight increase in savings because of lower private consumption. in the trade balance this is visible mainly in a downward revision to imports. accordingly, the baseline scenario includes a current account deficit of 2. 5 percent of gdp in 2014 ( 3. 6 percent in march ). the lower outlook for expenditure also implies that, at trend prices, the deficit will decline further, to 2. 2 percent of gdp ( 3 percent in march ) ( table 2 ). the forecast path for inflation rests on several assumptions. for one, in that the passthrough from the peso depreciation to prices will be in line with its historical pattern. in addition, the board uses as a methodological assumption that the real exchange rate ( rer ) will remain close to current values, as it is now within the range that is considered consistent bis central bankers ’ speeches with its long - term fundamentals. it also uses as a working assumption that nominal wages will be adjusted in line with productivity and the inflation target. the baseline scenario also uses as a methodological assumption that the mpr will follow a path comparable to that that can be inferred from the prices of financial assets outstanding at the statistical closing of this monetary policy report ( figure 8 ). the baseline scenario reflects the events that are