per barrel in the next three years. according to our preliminary estimates, the expansion of oil output under the new opec + agreements will add about 0. 1 pp to gdp growth this year and 0. 2 – 0. 3 pp next year. another important growth driver is domestic demand, including both consumer and investment demand. considering these trends, we have revised our economic growth forecast for this year upwards from 3 – 4 % to 4 – 4. 5 %. after the recovery, the economy will expand at a pace close to its potential. we forecast that gdp will equal 2 – 3 % in the next two years. the possibility to achieve higher economic growth rates will depend both on the expansion of production and logistics capacities and on labour resources, their expertise and performance. t hird. monetary conditions have been progressively adjusting to the earlier increases in the key rate, but are still accommodative. the yield curve of federal government bonds, which is used by banks as a benchmark for the interest rates they set for their clients, has significantly increased for maturities of up to three years, while staying almost unchanged in the long end. the rise in short - term yields reflects both our recent decisions and market expectations regarding the future key rate path. shifts in long - term yields are minor. among other things, this is an evidence of market participants ’ confidence that monetary policy will finally bring inflation back to the target. i would like to reiterate that these are long - term interest rates, rather than our key rate as such ( as is often stated ), that determine the affordability of credit for companies ’ investment purposes and of mortgage loans. as compared to yields on federal government bonds, interest rates on loans and deposits have responded more slowly and rose less significantly. our today ’ s decision is aimed at accelerating this process. an increase in interest rates will help restore households ’ propensity to save. growth in retail and corporate lending is close to its highest rates recorded in recent years. many borrowers seek to take out loans as soon as possible at lower interest rates. we have raised our lending growth forecast for this year. mortgage lending will continue to expand fast, while slightly decelerating after the amendments to the subsidised mortgage lending programme become effective. speaking of unsecured consumer lending, we can already observe the first signs of overheating. this lending segment has been growing faster than we forecast in april. on 1 july, we returned risk weights for

elvira nabiullina : review of recent inflation developments in russia and economic outlook statement by ms elvira nabiullina, governor of the bank of russia, in the follow - up to the board of directors meeting, moscow, 23 july 2021. * * * good afternoon, we have made the decision to raise the key rate by 100 basis points to 6. 50 % per annum. our today ’ s decision is based on the updated macroeconomic forecast that was significantly revised. the growth of the russian economy sped up in the second quarter, and inflationary pressure turned out to be higher and more persistent than forecast. some sectors are already demonstrating signs of overheating. inflation expectations also continued to go up. given the observed trends, we have revised our inflation forecast upwards by one point. this year, it will equal 5. 7 – 6. 2 %. the important step in our policy, which we have made today, is needed to bring inflation back to the target. we expect inflation to slow down to 4. 0 – 4. 5 % next year and stay close to 4 % further on. nonetheless, our policy will not contain the steady rates of economic growth. i would now dwell on the factors behind our today ’ s decision. i will start out with inflation. as of 19 july, inflation was 6. 5 % in annualised terms. this is considerably above the target and is close to five - year peaks. high growth rates are driven by both temporary and steady factors. according to our estimates, steady factors dominate at the moment. they are associated with the fact that expanding demand in many industries exceeds their potential to ramp up output and imports. this accelerates price growth as well. as to the product groups where prices rose the most in the second quarter, these are construction materials, furniture, and cars. when people expect prices to rise faster, they decide to make large purchases earlier. to do this, they use both savings and borrowings. growth in consumer lending again sped up to a quite high rate, which was driven by accommodative monetary policy, among other things. on the other hand, accommodative policy lowered the demand for bank deposits, especially given accelerated inflation. there are also other markets where price growth was rather caused by one - off factors and limited supply. this is tourism, for instance. only a part of foreign destinations have been reopened, whereas russian resorts ’ infrastructure is still insufficient to accept the entire tourist