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of growth : 3 month on 3 month annualised awe growth for regular pay is 2. 9 %. but wage data are volatile and can mislead. between 2014 and 2016, the 3 month on 3 month measure annualised awe gave readings well above 3 % which did not translate into sustained higher rates of pay growth. and, perhaps in keeping with changes in workers ’ risk appetite, labour market indicators like the unemployment rate have signalled tightness for most of my time on the mpc without translating into pay pressure. the mpc ’ s november inflation report forecast, which is the best collective judgement of the committee, is that inflation will peak around 3 % this year. in the later part of the forecast period, as the impact of externally generated inflation pressure wanes, domestic inflation pressures, particularly pay, rise so that inflation is slightly above the target at the 3 year forecast horizon. the forecast is based on the increase in bank rate to 0. 5 % which the committee agreed at its last meeting and on the market path for interest rates, which implies bank rate rising to 1 % over the next three years. at the november meeting i voted against increasing bank rate. i did so not because i had a markedly different view to the majority of the right trade - off between output / inflation over the forecast period – or to put it another way, on the limits to tolerance of above - target inflation. in this respect, i share the overall framework of the committee. our framework, however, depends crucially on our estimation of the phillips curve – both the slope and level. given the uncertainties i have described and the serial disappointments we have had in recent years in forecasting the impact of unemployment on pay growth, there is in my view a not immaterial risk that the trade - off is not as it currently appears and that domestic inflation pressure will undershoot the committee ’ s collective expectation. in my view the low level of domestic pressure on inflation now, the absence of second round effects from the deprecation of sterling, and inflation expectations around their historical averages, make it possible to wait i have quoted the shorter - term measure for regular pay, rather than total that i use elsewhere, as the inclusion of bonuses in total pay leads to more short - term volatility in that series. 3 - month - on - 3 - month annualized growth for total pay was 2. 1 % in august but had been above 3 % earlier in the year, and