2 global pmi di, % pts. global manufacturing pmi output index global services pmi business activity index cy 2013 note : figures are from the j. p. morgan global pmi. figures above 50 indicate improvement and below 50 show deterioration on a month - on - month basis. source : ihs markit ( © and database right ihs markit ltd 2019. all rights reserved. ) chart 3 real gdp growth and breakdown by component ann., q / q % chg. - 5 private consumption private business fixed investment, etc. government spending exports imports change in inventories, etc. real gdp - 10 - 15 - 20 cy 2013 cy source : cabinet office, " quarterly estimates of gdp for october - december 2018 ( first preliminary estimates ). " 18 18 chart 4 outlook for economic activity and prices ( january 2019 outlook report ) medians of policy board members'forecasts, y / y % chg. real gdp cpi ( all items less fresh food ) ( reference ) excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike and policies concerning the provision of free education fiscal 2018 [UNK]. 9 [UNK]. 8 forecasts made in october 2018 [UNK]. 4 [UNK]. 9 fiscal 2019 [UNK]. 9 [UNK]. 1 [UNK]. 9 forecasts made in october 2018 [UNK]. 8 [UNK]. 6 [UNK]. 4 fiscal 2020 [UNK]. 0 [UNK]. 5 [UNK]. 4 forecasts made in october 2018 [UNK]. 8 [UNK]. 6 [UNK]. 5 note : the direct effect of the consumption tax hike on the cpi for fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020 is estimated to be 0. 5 percentage points for each year. the direct effects of policies concerning the provision of free education on the cpi for fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020 are estimated to be minus 0. 3 percentage points and minus 0. 4 percentage points, respectively. source : bank of japan, " outlook for economic activity and prices ( january 2019 ). " chart 5 household consumption consumer confidence index consumption before and after tax hikes apr. 1996 and apr. 2013 = 100 105. 1 s. a. 104. 6 103. 9 100. 0 99. 4 improved worsened tax hike in april 2014 ( from 5 % to 8 % ) tax hike in april 1997 ( from 3 % to 5 % ) 96. 7 13 fy 1996 14 fy 2013 note : the latest figures are as of december 2001 and december 2018. source : cabinet office, " synthetic consumption index. " 13cy 2013 14 note : households of two or more persons. consumer

confidence index is composed of four categories : " overall livelihood, " " income growth, " " employment, " and " willingness to buy durable goods. " there are discontinuities between march and april 2013, and between september and october 2018, due to changes in the survey method. source : cabinet office, " consumer confidence survey. " chart 6 consumer prices measures of underlying inflation consumer price index 2. 0 y / y % chg. y / y % chg. % points 1. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 5 0. 0 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 - 0. 5 trimmed mean cpi ( all items less fresh food ) - 1. 5 weighted median cpi ( all items less fresh food and energy ) diffusion index ( right scale ) - 2. 0 - 1. 0 cy 201112 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 note : figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate. source : ministry of internal affairs and communications, " consumer price index. " - 50 cy cy112011 1212 notes : 1. the latest figures are as of december 2018. 2. the diffusion index is defined as the share of increasing items minus that of decreasing items. the share of increasing / decreasing items is the share of items in the cpi ( less fresh food, consumption tax adjusted ) whose price increased / decreased from a year earlier. sources : bank of japan, " measures of underlying inflation " ; ministry of internal affairs and communications. chart 7 output gap and inflation expectations output gap %, % points y / y % chg. 5. 07 % ( 1990 / 4q ) 1. 78 % ( 1997 / 1q ) 2. 02 % ( 2007 / 4q ) 2. 0 synthetic indicators of inflation expectations y / y % chg. firms, households, and experts ( consensus forecasts ) 1. 57 % ( 2018 / 2q ) firms, households, and experts ( quick survey ) firms, households, and markets ( inflation swap rate ) 1. 5 1. 0 - 2 0. 5 - 4 0. 0 cy 10 - 2 - 4 labor input gap capital input gap - 6 output gap reference : cpi ( all items less fresh food and energy ; right scale ) - 8 cy 1985 notes : 1. the data of the output gap in the left - hand graph are the estimates by the bank's staff as of january 30, 2019