i would have given some useful hints for the better ordering of the universe. 3 9. let me polish up my crystal ball and look forward to 2035, as i once did to 2020, in the sadly defunct ministry of economic planning and development, our long - term think tank of times past. what do i see, twenty or so years ahead? i see three major interrelated strands ahead : • first, there will be an inescapable and massive transformation of all aspects of society, underpinned by inexorable globalisation. • second, this will be driven by transformational technologies, policy changes and international agreements. these will lead to greater availability and rapidly declining cost of communication, transport, health care, education and food. • third, i see a complete make - over of banking, business, industry and social life. in short, in the next two decades to 2035, i see a substantial transformation of the world as we know it. 10. think on it. how many of you here tonight, how many businesses that you run, will continue exactly as they are, or indeed survive twenty years? not all : not many, i guess. so we must give a thought to our legacy. what will we leave behind? prosperity? or the decline and fall of the wannabe tiger of the indian ocean? 11. global warming and sea level rise – that ’ s firmly on the cards : but that ’ s nothing compared to what else may be out there. for i see the driving forces of cheaper, faster and more reliable transport and communication running rough - shod over our present amiable tranquillity, unless we act now. banking will be transformed : • mobile may become the main delivery channel for banking and payment services. alfonos the wise ( 1221 – 1284 ), on studying the ptolemaic system of the universe, gingerich, owen ( 1990 ), “ alfonos the tenth as a patron of astronomy ”, in marquez - villanueva, francisco ; vega, carlos alberto, alfonso x of castile : the learned king ( 1221 – 1284 ) : an international symposium, harvard university, pp. 30 – 45. bis central bankers ’ speeches • we shall have bankless banking, no counters, no backrooms, no paper, no sky - high buildings. • there will be more common currencies and digital currencies, with corresponding declines in fewer exchange transactions. • in

with 10 - year peso rates close to 7 % and indexed rates at 2. 6 %. these levels were observed in october 2021 and before that in february 2011. most of this recent increase is related to external financial conditions. consumer interest rates are at 28 %, while commercial rates are around 15 %, values not seen for more than a decade. meanwhile, housing rates remain at just over 4 %. real bilateral meetings commercial and consumer loans fell by more than 2. 2 % and 3. 0 %, while housing loans grew by 2 %. projections and monetary policy decisions a key driver for declining inflation is that the economy continues with the adjustment process which started this year, after the large imbalances it accumulated in 2021. in our forecasts, the economy will begin to contract in annual terms from the end of the third quarter of 2022 and continue to do so in 2023. this will keep the activity gap in negative territory for several quarters, which is consistent with the spending adjustment required to reduce inflation to the 3 % target within two years. the spending adjustment will also reduce the high level of the current account deficit. in the rolling year ending in the second quarter of 2022, the current account accumulated a deficit of 8. 5 % of gdp, its highest level in several decades. this reflects the significant imbalances between public and private savings and spending in 2021. the projection foresees a decrease in the current account deficit in the coming years, consistent with the adjustment of spending on tradables and an increase in public and household savings after the imbalances of 2021. the adjustment of the economy will imply negative growth in activity and demand in 2023, implying several quarters of contraction. after that, the economy will resume growth rates close to its potential level. in the latest ipom projections, we anticipate a gdp growth range of between 1. 75 and 2. 25 this year, a fall of between - 1. 5 and - 0. 5 next year, and growth between 2. 25 and 3. 25 % in 2023. preliminary activity data for the third quarter ( imacec ) confirm the generalized weakness of practically all sectors, with relevant contractions in commerce, industry and construction. private consumption will continue to tighten, reflecting the end of the large income support measures adopted in 2021, the slowdown in the labor market and the effects of monetary policy. in investment, a weak performance is anticipated for the remainder of 2022 and all