t know how the situation in the middle east will be resolved. so, we have made an assumption that the related uncertainties will dissipate in the second half of 2003. our projections for the global and canadian economies are based on this assumption. so, let me now turn to the canadian outlook. after growing significantly faster than potential during the first half of 2002, canada's economy slowed to a growth rate close to potential in the second half of the year. even with this slowdown, the level of demand has remained near capacity since the middle of last year. as we look forward, we foresee below - potential growth in the first half of the year. but we anticipate increased demand pressures in the second half of 2003 and into 2004, as global uncertainties diminish. however, with an appropriate reduction in the amount of monetary stimulus, we see the level of output remaining close to capacity during 2003 and into 2004. as i said earlier, recent inflation rates have come in somewhat higher than expected. this reflects certain one - off price increases, such as higher insurance premiums, but also some broadening of price pressures as a result of stronger demand. the one - off factors will hold the core rate of inflation well above the 2 per cent target in the first half of this year. in the second half and into 2004, we expect the core rate to ease, as the effect of the one - off factors diminishes and the removal of monetary stimulus keeps demand pressures in check. the outlook for total cpi inflation this year will continue to be importantly affected by developments in crude oil prices. with oil and gas prices where they are now, we could see cpi inflation rates between 4 and 4. 5 per cent in the first quarter. if oil and gas prices decline in the second half, as futures prices suggest they will, then total cpi inflation would move back down in line with core inflation. let's remember that the stance of monetary policy remains stimulative. to return inflation to the 2 per cent target over the medium term, we will need to remove some of the stimulus. in other words, we will need to raise interest rates. a number of elements will come into play in determining the pace at which we will reduce monetary stimulus. let me reiterate them. first, although much of the recent run - up in inflation was the result of special factors, we can't rule out the possibility that demand pressures are becoming more prominent

guy debelle : the global code of conduct for the foreign exchange market speech by mr guy debelle, assistant governor ( financial markets ) of the reserve bank of australia, at the fx week asia conference, singapore, 31 august 2016. * * * thank you for having me here today to talk about the global code of conduct for the foreign exchange market. as you may know, phase 1 of the code was launched in new york in late may. 1 today i will reiterate the motivation for the work we are doing on the global code, then update you on where we are at with the process and outline the way forward. why is the work going on? as i have stated on previous occasions, the foreign exchange ( fx ) industry is suffering from a lack of trust in its functioning. this lack of trust is evident both between participants in the market, but at least as importantly, between the public and the market. the market needs to move toward a more favourable and desirable location, and allow participants to have much greater confidence that the market is functioning appropriately. a well - functioning foreign exchange market is very much in the interest of all market participants. this clearly includes central banks, both in their own role as market participants but also as the exchange rate is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. in a globalised world, the foreign exchange market is one of the most vital parts of the financial plumbing. the global code sets out global principles of good practice in the foreign exchange market to provide a common set of guidance to the market, including in areas where there is a degree of uncertainty about what sort of practices are acceptable, and what are not. this should help to restore confidence and promote the effective functioning of the wholesale fx market. to that end, one of the guiding principles underpinning our work is that the code should promote a robust, fair, liquid, open, and transparent market. a diverse set of buyers and sellers, supported by resilient infrastructure, should be able to confidently and effectively transact at competitive prices that reflect available market information and in a manner that conforms to acceptable standards of behaviour. the work to develop the global code commenced in may last year, when the bank for international settlements ( bis ) governors commissioned a working group of the markets committee of the bis to facilitate the establishment of a single global code of conduct for the wholesale fx market and to come up with mechanisms to promote greater adherence to the code. 2 there are two important points worth highlighting :