a result of these employment trends, and on the basis of consistent - across - countries assumptions on productivity growth, potential gdp growth is projected to decline in the decades to come. for the eu15, the annual average potential gdp growth rate will fall from 2. 2 % in the period 2004 - 2010 to 1. 3 % between 2031 and 2050. an even steeper decline is foreseen in the new member states ( eu10 ), because of both demographic developments and the underlying assumption that productivity growth rates in these countries will converge to those of the eu15. in greece, that convergence is also expected to lead to a fall in productivity growth, contributing to a decline in potential gdp growth from an annual average rate at 2. 2 % in the period 2004 - 2010 to below 1 % per year in the 2030s and 2040s. public spending projections population ageing is projected to lead to increases in public spending in most eu member states by 2050 on the basis of current policies although there is wide disparity in those increases across countries. in more than one third of the member states, the long - term budgetary impact of the projected increases will be at least 5 % of gdp. these countries have so far made only limited progress in reforming their pension systems or are experiencing maturing pension systems. for the new member states ( eu10 ) as a whole, the increase is projected to be much smaller, but this situation reflects mainly institutional changes. a switch to private pensions scheme in poland is expected to make a substantial contribution to a decline in public pension spending in the new member states. 4 excluding poland, age - related spending is subject to increase by more than 5 % of gdp. most of the projected increase in public spending will be on pensions, health care and long - term care. offsetting savings in areas as education and unemployment benefits are likely to be limited. with respect to greece, data on public spending projections are not available as such projections have not yet been submitted. however, according to projections prepared in 2002, pension expenditures will rise from 12. 4 % of gdp in 2005 to 22. 6 % of gdp in 2050. 5 the net increase in total old age - related expenditure ( excluding spending on long - term care, for which no official figures are available ) is projected to be 11. 5 percentage points of gdp, reaching 32. 7 % of gdp in 2050. this compares with rises in pension expenditures by slightly more than 2 percentage points

, despite an adverse global financial landscape and macroeconomic environment, their tier 1 car would be maintained at 8 - 10 % in 2009 and 2010, as already stated. within the euro area co - ordinated framework, the €28 billion banking support package arranged by the ministry of economy and finance in close co - operation with the bank of greece addresses both the issues of the capital base and liquidity of the banks, so as to minimize the risks from the global crisis on the real economy. the banks, in turn, will channel the available liquidity to the real economy, because this is also in their own interest, since their own profitability depends on giving loans. to restore medium - term liquidity, the guarantee of the greek state, will be provided to credit institutions for the issuance of new medium - term loans, as well as for notes that will be issued or refinanced up to the end of 2009 and for a maturity of up to 3 years. the total amount of this guarantee will not exceed €15 billion and it will be provided either against a commission and the provision of adequate collateral or without collateral, but against a higher commission. measures for strengthening the capital base : credit institutions may benefit, on a voluntary basis, from the purchase by the greek state of preference redeemable shares, up to an aggregate amount of €5 billion. these shares will pay a fixed annual return of 10 % and they will be eligible as tier i capital, allowing credit institutions to enhance their capital base. the state plan has now entered its implementation phase and most of the banks are preparing their participation, but the impact of the measures will be felt more in the 2nd quarter of 2009. despite popular belief, greek credit institutions are ready to make use of the measures. although specific criteria have been already set, a fair distribution of the total available amount of €28 billion remains an extremely delicate task. it is also difficult to estimate how much each bank will ultimately draw and which part of the whole amount must be retained to be used in a later stage. it should be noted that, in exchange of the government bonds and guarantees, the bank of greece will have to assess, process and monitor on a continuous base the volume and the variety of the collaterals given by the banks. this means that we will have to be constantly alert and the relevant mechanisms at the bank of greece must operate efficiently at full capacity for as long as it will be deemed necessary. basically, the aim of the