s ability to deliver stable inflation, but also raised a question about whether long expansions inevitably lead to destabilizing financial excesses. era iii, 2010 and after : monetary policy and the emerging new normal the third era began in 2010 as the recovery from the great recession was taking hold. my focus in discussing this era will be on a “ new normal ” that is becoming apparent in the wake of the crisis. i will fast - forward past the early years of the expansion and pick up the story in december 2015. 9 the unemployment rate had fallen indeed, as i noted at this symposium last year, inflation ran surprisingly low in the second half of the 1990s ( powell, 2018 ). this was an odd recession to classify. the collapse of the tech bubble was followed by several quarters of generally slow positive growth. regarding declaring the 2001 recession, the nber business cycle dating committee stated, “ before the [ september 11 ] attacks, it is possible that the decline in the economy would have been too mild to qualify as a recession ” ( nber, 2001, p. 8 ). ben bernanke ( 2012 ) surveyed the early years of the recovery at this symposium in 2012. - 6 from a peak of 10 percent to 5 percent, roughly equal to the median fomc participant ’ s estimate of the natural rate of unemployment at the time. at this point, the committee decided that it was prudent to begin gradually raising the federal funds rate based on the closely monitored premise that the increasingly healthy economy called for more - normal interest rates. the premise was generally borne out : growth from the end of 2015 to the end of 2018 averaged 2. 5 percent, a bit above the 2. 2 percent rate over the previous five years ( figure 2, panel a ). the unemployment rate fell below 4 percent, and inflation moved up and remained close to our 2 percent objective through much of 2018 ( figure 2, panels b and c ). that brings us to 2019. before turning to issues occupying center stage at present, i want to address a long - running issue that i discussed here last year : tracking the “ stars ” that serve as guideposts for monetary policy. 10 these include u *, the natural rate of unemployment, and r *, the neutral real rate of interest. unlike celestial stars, these stars move unpredictably and cannot be directly observed. we must judge their locations as best we can based on incoming data and then add an element of risk

masaru hayami : the role of japan amid the changing international financial environment speech by mr masaru hayami, governor of the bank of japan, at the executive board of directors ’ meeting of the japan foreign trade council, held in tokyo, on 7 june 2000. * 1. * * introduction thank you for inviting me to the 263rd executive board of directors ’ meeting. it is a great pleasure to have this opportunity to address such a distinguished audience. it also brings back memories of my days as one of the council ’ s executive directors and vice chairman under chairman mimura. your invitation today allows me to be here again, for the first time in almost ten years since i left the council to become chairman of the japan association of corporate executives. knowing that many of you come from trading companies which are active globally, today i ’ d like to share my ideas from the viewpoint of the role of japan amid the changing international financial environment. 2. tensions generated by globalization having previously worked for the bank of japan for 34 years, i had a chance to work in the then foreign department, our london office and other positions related to the bank ’ s international activities. it was a great experience for me to attend important international meetings such as the bis and the then g5 meetings. then, two years ago, i returned to the bank of japan as governor. now, representing the bank, i have a chance to again take part in various international meetings. attending such meetings, i have noticed two things. first, the number of international meetings has multiplied over the years. in this context, of particular note is that the presence of emerging - market countries, particularly the asian economies, has also increased. one reason for this is somewhat paradoxical in that since the asian currency crises of 1997, there is a consensus that the economic and financial stability of emerging - market economies is crucial for global economic and financial stability. indeed, the rise in the number of international meetings and participants evidences the extent to which economies are becoming globalized. the second thing i have noticed is that various kinds of tensions have arisen as the market economy has become more globalized. i clearly recall ngo activists surrounding the wto ’ s ministerial conference in seattle last december. the imfc meeting, which i attended in late april on the day after the g7 meeting, was also the target of similar protests. how can it be that the imf, a pivotal contributor to the development of the liberalized market economy after