##lay of worry about moderating global economic growth, given heightened trade tensions, with implications for future oil demand. the main source of additional oil supply is the same as it was back in 2014 : the united states. for reference, the world consumes about 100 million barrels of oil per day. back in 2008, us production was about 7 million barrels per day. by 2014, the shale revolution had pushed that figure up to 12 million. today, us production is over 15 million barrels per day, more than double the 2008 level. that is 2 million more than just a year ago, and us exports of oil have risen by the same amount over that time. these us developments dwarf canadian production — we produce about 5 million barrels per day and export just over 3 million. weak global oil prices have a direct impact on canada, as we well know from our experience in 2015 – 17. this affects all producers, in the east and west. although the canadian economy overall had largely completed its adjustment to lower oil prices by mid - 2017, adjustments to cost structures, and to wages and employment in oil - producing regions, have continued. indeed, the share of oil and gas production in the canadian economy has declined since 2014, from about 6 per cent to about 3½ per cent today. the recent decline in world oil prices has been magnified in western canada, as the discount applied to our heavy oil, western canada select, widened to a record. this is largely due to transportation constraints, but was compounded this autumn by maintenance shutdowns in some key us refineries. since our october rate decision, the heavy oil discount has declined somewhat as us refineries have come back on line. however, in recent weeks, the discount has also spread to the price for western canadian light crude oil, edmonton par, as stored inventory has hit record levels. alberta ’ s initiative to impose output reductions and add more rail capacity 5 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches will help clear the backlog, and more pipeline capacity would certainly help in the long term. while we did not prepare a completely new economic forecast for yesterday ’ s decision, we will do so between now and our next decision in january. it is already clear that a painful adjustment is developing for western canada, and there will be a meaningful impact on the canadian macroeconomy. that said, given the consolidation that has taken place in the energy sector since 2014, the net effects of lower oil prices on the canadian economy

sides of the issue. in terms of the canadian economy, it is fair to say that the data released since our october mpr have been on the disappointing side. while the gdp data for the third quarter were close to our expectations overall, the underlying composition of growth was not, and the economy has less momentum going into the fourth quarter than we believed it would. 4 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches while recent data from the housing sector have been softer than expected, we believe this is the result of a significant adjustment in new construction from single dwellings to multiples, and this adjustment has prolonged the slowdown in housing construction that began earlier this year. population and employment growth, and therefore fundamental demand for housing, remain strong. credit growth has also steadied, and all of this supports our view that the market is stabilizing. business investment unexpectedly declined in the third quarter. we had identified earlier this year the likelihood that uncertainty over the future of nafta would hold back investment decisions. it now appears that this effect was very strong during the summer, when uncertainty was at its peak. the other big factor restraining business investment was the delay in the trans mountain pipeline project. the signing of cusma is likely to support a rebound in investment, particularly given ongoing capacity constraints, although governments still need to implement the agreement. furthermore, the federal government ’ s recently announced tax changes will lead to a further strengthening in investment. this would also suggest continued growth in exports, which have been supported by strong foreign demand, but constrained by tight capacity. in its latest gdp release, statistics canada revised downward its historical estimates of economic growth. most of these revisions pertain to shifts in economic structure beginning in 2015, as the economy was adjusting to steep declines in oil prices. it may seem odd that developments in 2015 could still be affecting our view of the economy in 2018, but they do. the level of gdp today is now believed to be nearly 1 per cent lower than previously thought. the effect of this revision on the inflation outlook will depend on how much of that shift is in demand and how much is in supply or economic capacity, and therefore how our estimates of the gap between the two are affected. we will say more about this in our january mpr, once our analysis is complete. much of governing council ’ s discussion was focused on oil. global oil prices are well below our forecast assumptions made in our october mpr, primarily due to supply forces. there is also an important over