if the new opec + agreement is fully complied with. further on, oil prices are expected to gradually rise to usd 45 per barrel in 2022 as global demand picks up and oil stock levels decrease. another key assumption of our forecast is the duration of the coronavirus pandemic and the restrictions implemented in russia and abroad. our estimates suggest that governments will be gradually lifting or considerably easing the majority of current restrictions in the second quarter. in this case, we can expect that in the third and fourth quarters economic activity will be recovering quarter - on - quarter. the economic situation will be returning to normal step - by - step. the direct adverse impact of the restrictions primarily falls on this quarter, while their secondary effects will continue to manifest in the future. according to our surveys, over 80 % of the businesses across various industries have been experiencing the influence of the coronavirus pandemic and current 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches restrictions. companies ’ business sentiment has materially declined. it will take time to restore business processes, logistics and production chains, offset the reduction in profit and revenue, build up reserves and savings that have been used to a greater or lesser extent over the second quarter. combined with uncertainty regarding potential changes in the external environment, this will limit production, investment and consumer activity. in these conditions, gdp will shrink yearon - year in the third and fourth quarters, that is the annual rate of economic growth will be negative. according to the bank of russia ’ s forecast, gdp will overall decrease by 4 – 6 % in 2020. the major contributor to this reduction will be a decline in exports that may reach from 10 % to 15 %. moreover, fixed capital investment will also substantially decrease ( by 6 – 10 % ) compared to the previous year. companies will be primarily using their financial resources to restore their daily operations. uncertainty about the prospects of domestic and external demand will be confining investment plans. the decline in production and investments will be confining the opportunities for an upturn in income. consumer demand will be shrinking. the measures implemented by the government and the bank of russia will support the economy, and specifically the most affected industries. economic growth in 2021 – 2022 will largely be recovery - type. according to our forecast, gdp will expand by 3 – 5 % in 2021 and by 1. 5 – 3. 5 % in 2022. gdp growth will be promoted by a further implementation of national projects. however, our baseline forecast factors

our actions, show how they influence interest rates and the economy as a whole, and to convince people, proceeding from facts, that bank of russia forecasts on inflation are coming true. inflation has slowed down to about 7 % ( as we predicted a year ago ) and inflation expectations also gradually abate. as a matter of fact, we have switched from measures to prevent the inflation spiral from unwinding to the policy of persistent reduction of inflation and inflation expectations and we are sure that our consistent and smooth actions will help us reach the 4 % inflation target in late 2017 without having an adverse impact on economic growth. the consistent and predictable monetary policy is a factor of reducing general uncertainty for business and, hence, the best environment for decision - making, i. e., the best conditions for growth in lending and investment activity. a desire to help the economy through premature cutting interest rates may have an opposite effect. we should stick to sound conservatism here. in order not to reproduce unstable imbalanced growth output and labour productivity should grow faster than income and demand. this will provide incentives for businesses to optimise costs and look for profitable segments. our policy is spearheaded precisely at this. bis central bankers ’ speeches it goes without saying that a more responsible fiscal policy ( given the smaller budget deficit we will be able to cut rates faster ) and competition development would be conducive to faster inflation reduction. now, let me say a few words about current issues of monetary policy : they are more technical, but no less important, since they are related to the transition from the structural liquidity deficit to its structural surplus. i would like to emphasise once again that this transition does not affect the central bank ’ s ability to manage the money market rate and with its help to influence all the other rates in the economy, lending and deposit activity, the economy, and inflation. however, in order to ensure this ability the bank of russia should change its operational activity and start to actively mop up liquidity. these operations comprise deposit operations, issue of bank of russia bonds and sale of assets, for example, the ofz portfolio. given the expected structural surplus growth, we have also decided to raise the required reserve ratio by 0. 75 percentage points from 1 august. in order to stimulate deposit dedollarisation we decided to leave the difference between the ratios on ruble - and foreign currencydenominated deposits intact. we also have plans to cancel ineffective exceptions to this ratio