the 2019 siepr economic summit, stanford institute of economic policy research, stanford, california, march 8, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / powell20190308a. htm ; richard h. clarida ( 2019 ), “ the federal reserve ’ s review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices, ” speech delivered at the 2019 u. s. monetary policy forum, sponsored by the initiative on global markets at the university of chicago booth school of business, new york, february 22, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / clarida20190222a. htm. lael brainard ( 2016 ), “ the " new normal " and what it means for monetary policy, ” speech delivered at the chicago council on global affairs, chicago, illinois, september 12, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20160912a. htm. see, for instance, lael brainard ( 2015 ), “ normalizing monetary policy when the neutral interest rate is low, ” speech delivered at the stanford institute for economic policy research, stanford, california, december 1, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20151201a. htm ; and kathryn holston, thomas laubach, and john c. williams ( 2016 ), “ measuring the natural rate of interest : - 2the policy rate by only 1½ percentage points before hitting the effective lower bound — in contrast to previous decades when the policy rate would have been cut by 4½ to 5 percentage points, on average, to buffer the economy from an adverse shock. the reduced scope to cut the interest rate could increase the frequency and duration of periods when the policy rate is pinned close to zero, unemployment is elevated, and inflation is below target. in turn, the greater likelihood of extended periods of low inflation at the lower bound risks eroding inflation expectations and further compressing the scope for cutting the interest rate. the risk here is a downward spiral where the scope for cutting the interest rate gets compressed even further, the lower bound binds even more frequently, and it becomes increasingly difficult to move inflation expectations and inflation back up to target. the experience of some foreign central banks illustrates the challenges associated with such

at the fastest pace in decades. economic output has likely surpassed its pre - pandemic peak, but even with this progress, there are over 10 million people still without jobs who are either actively looking for employment or have since left the labor force. employment has been recovering rapidly in the sectors of the economy related to goods production and sales, but the services economy has been much slower to recover. employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors is down by more than 3 million jobs since february of 2020. 1 as the recovery in the labor market and spending on goods and services continues to gain momentum, we are seeing upward pressures on consumer prices. in recent months, inflation has risen to well over the federal reserve ’ s longer - run goal of 2 percent. this rise has reflected, in part, the fact that inflation numbers at the onset of the pandemic were very low. as those low values drop out of the 12 - month average of price changes, this measure of inflation has increased and will likely increase further. but there is more to the recent rise in inflation than just these measurement issues. the impressive upswing in economic activity has played an important role as it has led to a number of supply chain bottlenecks and put upward pressure on prices for many goods. these upward price pressures may ease as the bottlenecks are worked out, but it could take some time, and i will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches my outlook as needed. post – covid - 19 economic outcomes we know that economic downturns are hardest for lower - income people, those with less education, and some minority groups. i believe that government responses to the pandemic — the lockdowns, school closures, and economic restrictions on businesses — significantly widened differences by income, education, race, and gender, and those disparities have persisted during the recovery. for example, we know that those with a high school education or less were among the hardest hit in the downturn last spring, and i am concerned about those individuals falling behind. in 2020, 20 percent of prime - age adults with less than a bachelor ’ s degree experienced a layoff, 8 percentage points higher than for those with at least a bachelor ’ s degree. 2 it seems that women, and especially minority women, have shouldered a larger share of adverse labor market impact because of limited child care options and the need to assist school - aged children with remote learning during the