edge risks of a hard brexit have been largely addressed. in addition to the preparations by individual firms, this has included the temporary permission by the european authorities for the uk central securities depository ( csd ) to continue to serve irish securities during the transition to an alternative eu27 csd arrangement. there are some remaining risks of consumer detriment. the irish and uk financial systems are closely connected, with uk firms and firms from gibraltar providing financial services to irish consumers, including insurance and payment services. we have worked with the european and uk authorities to ensure that those firms providing services to irish consumers are able to continue to do so in the event of a hard brexit. the vast majority of uk - based firms have taken appropriate action, but not all have to date. in this context, i am pleased that the central bank of ireland has worked with the department of finance to support the drafting of legislation to create a temporary run - off regime that will protect insurance customers in event of a no - deal brexit. in terms of financial stability risks, our assessment is that the improvements in the resilience of the financial system over the last decade provide a vitally - important buffer. taken together, the more balanced macroeconomic profile, the restructuring of the irish banking system, the muchhigher capital and liquidity ratios, the decline in the non - performing loan ratio and the more intrusive supervisory regime mean that the capacity to absorb negative shocks is much greater than in the past. conclusions while there remains much uncertainty about the final nature of brexit, the central bank of ireland ( and, more generally, the international central banking and regulatory community ) has been active since the calling of the referendum in preparing for the full range of brexit scenarios. our near - term focus is in ensuring that our contingency planning covers the unfolding situation, while continuing to work with those firms that have not yet finalised their brexit plans. regardless of the precise outcome, the intrinsic discontinuity represented by any form of brexit means that it is certain the 2020 edition of the european financial forum will be discussing a fundamentallydifferent european financial system compared to the system that has been in place for the last several decades. 1 see for example lane, philip r., ( 2019 ), climate change and the irish financial system, economic letter, vol. 2019, no. 1, central bank of ireland 3 / 3 bis central bankers

john hurley : prospects for the irish economy and banking sector address by mr john hurley, governor of the central bank and financial services authority of ireland, at a bloomberg business lunch, dublin, 16 october 2007. * * * the economic outlook remains broadly positive at the global level but the international environment is clearly somewhat more uncertain following the financial market turbulence that began in early august. central banks have sought to limit the impact of financial market developments on real economic activity. the provision of additional liquidity has brought some measure of stability and there are signs of improvement in the key inter - bank market, although some difficulties still remain it is impossible to say how long it will be before such markets will fully return to their normal functioning ; market participants remain uncertain about where exposure to risk lies and, while this continues to be the case, some tensions may persist. with regard to monetary policy, as far as the euro area is concerned, more information will be needed on the impact of recent developments before drawing any further conclusions in that regard. the turbulence also seems to signal the need for changes in the financial system that are likely to centre on issues such as transparency – including the links between on - and off - balance - sheet vehicles – making improvements to risk management frameworks, valuation standards and market functioning including looking at the role of rating agencies. although the irish banking system had relatively little direct exposure to many of the original sources of turbulence, there has inevitably been some pressure on interest rates, resulting from the tensions in the inter - bank market and some generalised tightening of credit conditions seems likely as a result. one cannot rule out other possible direct effects on the economy, such as a reduction in confidence for example, but the main concern centres on indirect effects at this stage, in particular, the possibility of a sharper than expected us slowdown. this could impact on the domestic economy through its extensive trade and investment links with the us. there are other risks that could affect the prospects for growth domestically also, including exchange rate movements and oil price developments. in its most recent bulletin, the bank projected some deceleration in domestic growth. gnp is likely to expand by about 4¾ per cent this year but the growth rate will probably drop to about 3¼ per cent next year. this arises from the combined effect of declines in housing output and a likely slowing of consumption growth next year from its current very high levels. inflation is likely to ease, however, with an average hicp rate of 2. 8 per cent