, would not have been possible without this underlying agreement. whether this consensus is a result of the role played by spanish economists, as enrique fuentes set out to demonstrate in his major work published by the real academia de ciencias morales y politicas, will be something for historians to decide. i would, however, venture to say that in the economic debate in spain heterodox positions, or those furthest removed from the central strand of current economic thought, are relatively marginal. concerning qualitative aspects, i have no doubt that another of the factors behind spain's dynamism is the improved management of spanish firms. and behind this lies a process in whose beginnings barcelona was a driving force. i refer here to the expansion and quality of our business schools, which enjoy great prestige internationally. in the business school rankings of recent years, three spanish institutions have systematically been in the top 30 worldwide. i would not wish to conclude this review of the factors contributing to the momentum of the spanish economy in the past 20 years without referring to the important role decentralisation has played. decentralisation is not free from risks - and i shall in fact deal with some that are most relevant to us but it has acted in spain as a powerful economic, social and cultural dynamo, in a similar way to what happened in post - war germany with the creation of the landers. * * * * * let us look now to the future. in the light of the trajectory of recent decades, what can we say about the future of the spanish economy in the medium and long term? to tackle the future from a useful perspective, i shall follow epictetus ’ s recommendation for gaining knowledge of the world. the stoic philosopher divided worldly matters into two : those that depend on us and those that do not. this classification is useful because, when talking about the future of the economy, it is worth focusing on those things that depend on the behaviour of economic agents and all those who intervene in framing economic, regulatory or supervisory policies, without wasting time regretting what we cannot change or influence. among the things beyond our control is, for example, the external environment, including the european economy which is so important for spain, since our influence on developments in the rest of the world is very limited. it is also important to realise that the starting position of the spanish economy with its strengths and weaknesses, which is the basis for predicting its short - term trajectory, is a given and

##ary discipline rules. and to date the stability objective has been reasonably met. but this is an area where we cannot lower our guard. as i have said, one of the advantages behind spain's growth differential when compared with other european countries is the fact that our public spending / gdp ratio is below 40 %, while in other countries it is close to or exceeds 50 %. the need to maintain this comparative advantage must be clear. and this means that when public demands for education and health care exert pressure on territorial governments, especially at times when the growth of revenue is not as high as it currently is, it will be necessary for increases in education spending, which are so important for growth, to be offset by cuts in spending intended for other less priority areas. as regards health care, it should be recalled that there is extensive potential for improving management, potential which we must harness. it is important to bear in mind the experiences of other european countries that opted for a model of increasing public spending on health but which, nevertheless, did not attain the desired results. decentralisation has accounted for much of our strength in recent decades and growth in the coming years will depend greatly on which direction we take. employers, for instance, have recently issued a warning about the potential impact of decentralisation on certain regulatory aspects affecting market integration. the example of germany's economic history in the 60 years since the second world war, which may very briefly be described as 40 years of vigorous expansion and almost 20 years of sluggishness, should be food for thought when extracting all the strong and favourable aspects of decentralisation and avoiding those phenomena entailing risks to the efficient working of the economy, on which any lasting improvement in well - being ultimately hinges. finally, another policy area to which great heed should be paid when seeking to sustain healthy public finances in the medium and long run is that of social security. admittedly, the forecasts available denote a lack of major problems in the social security system in the coming years ; however, looking further ahead, it is clear that if changes are not made, the system may become a considerable deadweight holding back growth in the spanish economy. when the long - term consequences are taken properly into account, it is fairly clear that the sooner social security reform begins, the less costly it will be. or stated the other way round, if social security reform continues to be delayed, we may find ourselves faced with a truly dangerous dilemma : either