to emphasize the importance of considering structural change, which can significantly impact inflation developments. whether it's the productivity slowdown i previously mentioned in my remarks on r - star, or shifts in wage dynamics – understanding these structural changes is essential for informed policy decisions. i am confident that many of the topics discussed here today and throughout the conference will resurface in one form or another during the ecb's next strategy review. i wish us all an interesting conference with many ideas to share and take home. thank you! i want to thank thomas zorner ( oenb, monetary policy section ) for his excellent research and support in putting together these opening remarks. bibliography blinder, alan, ehrmann, michael, de haan, jakob and jansen, david - jan ( 2022 ) : central bank communication with the general public : promise or false hope?, no 2694 working paper series, european central bank. benigno, gianluca, hofmann, boris, nuno, galo and sandri, damiano ( 2024 ) : quo vadis, r *? the natural rate of interest after the pandemic, bis quarterly review march 2024, bank for international settlements. borio, claudio, hofmann, boris and zakrajsek, egon ( 2023 ) : does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?, bis bulletin no 67, bank for international settlements. ringwald, leopold and zorner, thomas o. ( 2023 ) : the money - inflation nexus revisited, journal of empirical finance, vol. 73, pp 293 – 333. stelzer, anna, spisso, karen and zorner. thomas o. ( 2024 ) : central banking beyond 2021 : analyzing unconventional policies and preparing for future challenges, oenb occasional paper ( forthcoming ). 4 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches 5 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches

the early stages of the current financial crisis, the cesee countries performed relatively well compared to other world regions, and increases in risk premiums and downward revisions of growth prospects were rather contained. however, with the tightening of the crisis in the fall of 2008, the collapse in world trade and the global increase in risk aversion, emerging market economies in general came under considerable constraint. moreover, country - as well as region - specific vulnerabilities moved into the focus of market participants and investors. credit default swaps increased, but the increase was not at all homogeneous across cesee countries. with the change in global investors ’ sentiment, growth prospects for cesee countries had to be revised downwards substantially in the recent past. since the cesee region experienced growth rates well above the western european average, the turn in economic activity looks particularly sharp. according to the latest forecast by the european commission, gdp growth in several cesee and commonwealth of independent states ( cis ) countries will be below the euro area average, implying that the catching - up success of previous years will come to a temporary halt. among the countries hit hardest by the financial crisis are ukraine, the baltic countries and hungary. however, cesee countries must not be seen as a homogenous region. the financial crisis has a stronger impact on countries with weaker economic fundamentals, insufficient policy credibility and large economic imbalances. but the outlook for the cesee region as a whole still remains more optimistic than for the euro area. and in the years to come, the region will have higher trend growth rates, on average, than the " old " eu member states, simply because they are still in the process of convergence toward higher gdp per capita. thus, cesee will remain a driver of economic growth in europe for the foreseeable future. for the moment, however, direct and indirect external support is needed as a decisive measure to prevent recession in cesee from becoming worse than in the euro area. although the catching - up process in most cesee and cis countries over the last years was impressive, it was also characterized by some erroneous trends. let me stress two aspects that have made the affected countries extremely vulnerable to external shocks. first, in some countries credit has probably been expanded too fast. the rapid process of financial deepening needed to fund the elevated rates of economic growth in the cesee region was often accompanied by a rise in foreign ownership in the banking system. this was typically a win - win situation