assess how our earlier decisions have been influencing monetary conditions, aggregate demand, and inflation. we will also consider how quickly supply - side constraints have been weakening and, accordingly, what level of the key rate is needed to bring inflation back to the target. according to our revised forecast, the average key rate next year will equal 6. 0 – 7. 0 % per annum. further on, as inflation expectations go down and inflation decelerates, the key rate will return to its long - term neutral range. we still estimate this neutral range to be at 5 – 6 %, provided that inflation is close to the bank of russia ’ s target of 4 %. thank you all for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

mixed dynamics. business price expectations continued to decline in april - may. inflation expectations of households came in at 9. 3 - 9. 4 % during this period. however, we expect that inflation decline to 4 % will bring down inflation expectations of households and businesses. analysts ’ expectations remain anchored at the inflation target of close to 4 %. fifth. monetary conditions are softening. this is driven by changing expectations of domestic and external financial market players. first, this is enabled by revised expectations as to the path of the bank of russia key rate ; second, by an adjustment in expectations and yields in the external financial market against the background of changes in major central banks ’ rhetoric – which i have mentioned. ofz yields are declining in this environment, enabling a potential reduction in deposit and lending rates. between april and may, a number of major banks revised downwards their interest rates on several deposit products ; interest rates on mortgage loans were also beginning to trend down. today ’ s decision to cut the key rate alongside the signal we have sent out will work to solidify these trends. medium - term outlook. the outcome of opec + negotiations remains uncertain. we look to further concerted actions by deal parties to warrant smooth oil price dynamics over the forecast horizon. based on their actual movements since the year start, we have upgraded the average annual urals crude price in our baseline scenario from $ 60 to $ 65 per barrel in 2019 and from $ 55 to $ 60 per barrel in 2020. we retain our conservative assumptions for 2021 whereby the oil price is expected to reach $ 55 per barrel. key balance of payments figures in the baseline scenario have also been adjusted to oil price movements and the expected dynamics of the global economy. this year ’ s current account balance is estimated to total $ 98 billion ( approx. 6 % of gdp ) and drop subsequently to $ 50 billion ( approx. 3 % of gdp ) in 2021. this is attributed to downward oil price trends and expanding imports as economic growth accelerates. the private sector ’ s financial account balance in 2019 is set to amount to approx. $ 50 billion ( 3 % of gdp ). financial transactions of private sector balance already reached $ 35 billion in the first five months of the year. we expect it to drop substantially in the second half of the year 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches compared to both the past year ’ s last six months and the first six months of this year. the main reasons behind this outlook are as follows. first