expect the widespread and effective application of information and other technologies to significantly increase productivity and reduce business costs. certainly, we can already see dramatic improvements in quality control that have sharply reduced costly product rejects and lost time, while computer and satellite technology has markedly improved the efficiencies of moving goods through even more sophisticated, just - in - time, inventory systems. with computer - assisted design, experiments can be evaluated in a virtual reality setting, where mistakes can be readily corrected without the misuse of time and materials. and new technologies have had extensive applications in the services sector - - for example, in health services, where improvements in both diagnosis and treatment have been singularly impressive ; in airline efficiency and safety ; and in secretarial services now dominated by word processing, faxes, and voice and electronic mail. the accelerated pace of technological advance has also interacted with the rapid rise in financial innovation, with the result that business services and financial transactions now are transmitted almost instantaneously across global networks. financial instruments have become increasingly diverse, products more customized, and markets more intensely competitive. the scope and size of our financial sector has grown rapidly because of its ability to facilitate the financing of products and services that are themselves valued highly in the marketplace. our nation ’ s financial institutions, as a consequence, are endeavoring to find more effective and efficient ways to deliver their services. in this environment, america ’ s prospects for economic growth will depend greatly on our capacity to develop and to apply new technology. unfortunately, we have found that we never can predict with any precision which particular technology or synergies of technologies will add significantly to our knowledge and our ability to gain from that knowledge. for instance, alexander graham bell initially viewed the telephone solely as a business instrument - - merely an enhancement of the telegraph for use in transmitting very specific messages. indeed, he offered to sell his telephone patent to western union for only $ 100, 000, but he was turned down. similarly, marconi, at first, overlooked the radio ’ s value as a public broadcast medium, instead believing its principal application would be in the transmission of point - to - point messages, such as ship - to - ship, where communication by wire was infeasible. moreover, we must recognize that an innovation ’ s full potential may be realized only after extensive improvements or after complementary innovations in other fields of science. according to charles townes, a nobel prize winner for his work on the laser, the attorneys for bell

chip survey estimates that real gdp grew 1. 5 percent in the final three months of 2023. the atlanta fed's gdp now model, based on data in hand, currently stands at 2. 2 percent. an important part of that moderation comes from business investment and government spending, both of which showed rapid growth earlier in 2023 that didn't appear sustainable. consumer spending also accounted for much of the surprising strength in gdp growth earlier in the year, but here the slowdown so far appears more tentative. factors such as high interest rates, a depletion of excess savings, and a pickup in credit card usage all portend slower growth ahead, but it is unclear how much of that slowing has already occurred. since 1 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches consumer spending accounts for more than two - thirds of gdp, this component of demand is obviously critical for the outlook. we'll find out more about consumer spending tomorrow from the report on december's retail sales. turning to the labor market, over the course of 2023, there have been increases in labor supply amid slowing demand for labor, and i expect this to continue to bring the labor market into better balance. some have seen the latest jobs report as in conflict with this story, so let me explain why i don't see it that way. the short version is that i see the surprises in the december jobs report as largely noise against a trend of ongoing moderation that supports progress toward 2 percent inflation. the unemployment rate in december held steady at 3. 7 percent while employers added 216, 000 jobs, which was more than expected and an increase from the 173, 000 created in november and 105, 000 in october. while that looks like a modest acceleration in job creation, i remind myself that revisions to monthly payrolls have been downward for most of 2023 - from the first to the third estimate employment gains were revised down in 9 of 10 job reports. given this recent history of revisions, there is a good chance december will be revised down. furthermore, with growth expectations moderating over coming quarters, employment gains are likely to slow. we can see that this is already happening if we look at progress over the previous quarters. average monthly payroll gains over the fourth quarter were 165, 000, a step down from the 221, 000 average in the third quarter and 257, 000 in the first half of 2023. this data shows an improving balance between labor supply and demand. likewise, an uptick