. but in comparison to other countries, bahamian bank lending could stand to be larger, and still be prudent. that is, particularly, if we incentivise more lending of the right mix, to fund more counter - cyclical business and investment growth. in the process, the economy could also be sustainably larger and more prosperous. the transformation needed is to decrease the number of cents out each dollar of income earned that must be spent on imports. there are five conditions precedent for confident bank lending : - sufficient capital sufficient liquidity sufficient information about borrowers a clear ability to collect on problem loans confidence in the general prospects for the economy bahamian banks at this point have plenty of capital and liquidity. what they lack is borrower information, and perhaps confidence in collecting problem loans, and / or confidence in the business prospects for the bahamas. the central bank is already progressing several initiatives that will improve bank confidence to lend. this includes a program of reducing the industry ’ s aggregate non - performing loans, establishing a bahamian credit reporting bureau, and commencing a program to move more domestic transactions from cash to electronic methods. just in 2017, the central bank relaxed capital controls on access to financing in foreign currency for enterprises, that would make our credit policies more countercyclical, and therefore of a more sustained impact on stronger growth. two issues are highly relevant in the aml / cft context. first, “ sufficient information ” about a customer extends beyond the customer ’ s financial standing, to the customer ’ s potential to ensnare the bank in a financial crime matter. the central bank, the bahamian government, and the public sector overall have undertaken a great many reforms, in this area that you will hear about during this conference. one benefit from these reforms is that bahamian banks and other financial institutions will be able to deal with their customers with greater confidence regarding the customer ’ s non - involvement in financial crime. furthermore, through its regulation and supervision, the central bank will be able to demonstrate to interested stakeholders that the bahamian banking system is reasonably well insulated against aml / cft risks. our colleagues at the other bahamian financial regulators have taken or are taking similar steps to lift public and private confidence in the aml / cft robustness of their regulated entities. we can never guarantee that no customer will ever put tainted money into a bahamian financial institution. we are, however, approaching the day when we can undertake that no bahamian

get. ” it ’ s helpful because it gives the perceptions of normal people ( and not economists! ) about whether there are a lot of open positions. this survey continues to report that it ’ s relatively easy to find work, which is a very good sign about the strength of the economy. 2 beyond the economic data and surveys, financial market indicators are a critical source of up - tothe minute information on how investors view the economy. in addition, stock prices and interest rates affect the spending decisions of households and businesses, and the value of the dollar affects demand for exports and imports, so these are important factors shaping the economy ’ s trajectory. more broadly, i look at a wealth of data on international financial market developments and banking conditions, which feed into my understanding of the global outlook. finally, and perhaps least well known, i spend a great deal of time speaking with members of the public, at our board and advisory group meetings, community and business leader forums, and events like today ’ s. i get immense value from their insights, whether it ’ s the challenges they face in filling positions, their plans for capital investments, or how global developments are influencing their decisions. these discussions provide a huge amount of detail and texture to the economic picture. one of the great strengths of the federal reserve system is our extensive networks of contacts in our communities, and we share what we learn from these conversations when we meet at the fomc. being " data dependent " means taking this holistic view when thinking about the economy and monetary policy. not all of these types of data draw headlines the way shifts in the stock market do, but together they provide a much richer and more complete depiction of what ’ s happening. and they also tell me whether the signals we ’ re getting from the markets are reflected in the economy as a whole. 2018 tailwinds in thinking about where the economy is heading, it ’ s worth reflecting on where we were 12 months ago. at the start of last year the message i was getting — from business leaders, economic data, and the markets — was one of overwhelming positivity. this reflected three tailwinds : strong global 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches growth, fiscal stimulus, and quite accommodative financial conditions. each of these was giving the economy an extra boost. indeed, these tailwinds provided even more of a boost over most of 2018 than forecasters had anticipated. fast forward 12 months and indicators in europe and