sayuri shirai : japan ’ s economic and price developments and monetary policy – underlying inflation trend and inflation expectations speech by ms sayuri shirai, member of the policy board of the bank of japan, at a meeting with business leaders, shimane, 25 november 2015. * * * accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. i. introduction good morning. i feel honored to have an opportunity to meet with the local government officials and business representatives here today. let me also express my sincere gratitude for your kind cooperation with the activities of the bank of japan ’ s matsue branch. today, i would like to talk about the bank ’ s baseline scenario of the outlook for economic activity and prices through fiscal 2017 as well as risks to the scenario, as described in the october 2015 outlook for economic activity and prices ( hereafter the outlook report ). accordingly, i also will present and explain my views. ii. japan ’ s medium - term outlook for economic activity and risk assessment let me begin with japan ’ s economic activity. a. outlook for economic activity in the bank ’ s baseline scenario of the outlook for economic activity, the projected growth rate for fiscal 2015 was revised considerably downward while the projections for fiscal 2016 and 2017 were more or less unchanged, compared with those in the july 2015 interim assessment. nevertheless, domestic demand is likely to increase and exports are expected to continue increasing moderately on the back of the recovery in overseas economies. a virtuous cycle among production, income, and spending is likely to be maintained in the corporate and household sectors. firms ’ and households ’ growth expectations and potential economic growth are also likely to rise moderately in line with continued accommodative financial conditions. in fiscal 2017, the rate of economic growth is likely to decelerate significantly – mainly due to the effects of the planned consumption tax hike and cyclical deceleration in business fixed investment – but is still likely to remain positive ( chart 1 ). my outlook for economic activity is somewhat lower than the median of the policy board members ’ forecasts : around 1 percent for fiscal 2015 ; a little less than around 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2016 ; and slightly above 0 percent for fiscal 2017, owing to a significant decline in the growth rate, due, for example, to the planned consumption tax hike. let me explain in some detail. for fiscal 2015, my projection is lower than that in the july 2015 interim assessment, reflecting the negative economic growth recorded in the

all over the country shall be to build up national centralized individual and enterprise credit information databases and “ provide convenient, quick and highly efficient credit information services to government departments, financial regulatory departments, financial institutions, enterprises and individuals according to law ”. meanwhile, “ all regions and departments shall actively support the building and development of financial credit information system and make full use of its credit information resources to strengthen credit building and management ”. third, supervision should be intensified to cultivate and regulate the credit information market development. the effectiveness of legislations and rules will be compromised without an effective law enforcement mechanism. therefore, the pbc will continue to strengthen the supervision over credit information market to protect legitimate rights and interests of market participants, regulate credit information service market, foster the compliance of credit reporting agencies and create a credit information environment for orderly competition and fair service. in addition, efforts will be made to actively expand the use of credit information products, cultivate market needs for credit information services, and establish an effective mechanism to encourage credit information product innovation and development so as to satisfy the diversified, specialized and multi - layered needs for credit information services. under the precondition of strict supervision, improved system and safeguarding the safety of information, the credit service market will be opened in a sequenced and appropriate way, and advanced management experience and skills of foreign countries will be introduced. fourth, public education of credit information should be enhanced. enterprise and individual are the main providers of credit information data, and constitute an important part of credit information system building. strengthening the public education of credit information, enhancing the enterprises and individuals ’ awareness of credit information system and encouraging their active participation are indispensable for the sound and sustained development of credit information system. with the efforts made in recent yeas, social awareness of credit information is basically in place, and enterprises and individuals are more aware of abiding by laws, keeping promise, respecting contract and paying debt. over the past year since the databases were launched, nearly 300 thousand people have inquired their credit reports at their own initiative. about 180 thousand enterprises who have not borrowed from the bank established their own credit files on a voluntary basis, which have enhanced their transparency and broadened their financing channels. in the future, under the guidance of the state council, the pbc will actively cooperate with relevant government departments and continue to create a benign external environment so as to promote the sound and sustained development of credit information industry. iii. the important role of credit institutions should be