, may 22, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / files / yellen20150522a. pdf. - - - - - - - - ( 2016 ). “ the outlook, uncertainty, and monetary policy, ” speech delivered to the economic club of new york, march 29, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / yellen20160329a. htm. - - - - - - - - ( 2017 ). “ statement, ” testimony before the committee on banking, housing, and urban affairs, february 14, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / testimony / files / yellen20170214a. pdf.

hours of production workers – a comprehensive measure of labor input that reflects the extent of part - time employment and opportunities for overtime as well as the number of people employed – fell, remarkably, by nearly 10 percent from the beginning of the recent recession through october 2009. although hours of work have increased during the expansion, this measure still remains about 6 - 1 / 2 percent below its pre - recession level. for comparison, the maximum decline in aggregate hours worked in the deep 1981 – 82 recession was less than 6 percent. other indicators, such as total payroll employment, the ratio of employment to population, and the unemployment rate, paint a similar picture. particularly concerning is the very high level of long - term unemployment – nearly half of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months. people without work for long periods can find it increasingly difficult to obtain a job comparable to their previous one, as their skills tend to deteriorate over time and as employers are often reluctant to hire the longterm unemployed. bis central bankers ’ speeches although the jobs market remains quite weak and progress has been uneven, overall we have seen signs of gradual improvement. for example, private - sector payrolls increased at an average rate of about 180, 000 per month over the first five months of this year, compared with less than 140, 000 during the last four months of 2010 and less than 80, 000 per month in the four months prior to that. as i noted, however, recent indicators suggest some loss of momentum, with last friday ’ s jobs market report showing an increase in private payrolls of just 83, 000 in may. i expect hiring to pick up from last month ’ s pace as growth strengthens in the second half of the year, but, again, the recent data highlight the need to continue monitoring the jobs situation carefully. the business sector generally presents a more upbeat picture. capital spending on equipment and software has continued to expand, reflecting an improving sales outlook and the need to replace aging capital. many u. s. firms, notably in manufacturing but also in services, have benefited from the strong growth of demand in foreign markets. going forward, investment and hiring in the private sector should be facilitated by the ongoing improvement in credit conditions. larger businesses remain able to finance themselves at historically low interest rates, and corporate balance sheets are strong. smaller businesses still face difficulties in obtaining credit, but surveys of both banks and borrowers indicate that conditions are slowly improving for those firms as well. in contrast