cepr paris symposium – 8 december 2023 “ global imbalances : what ’ s new? ” speech by agnes benassy - quere, second deputy governor of the banque de france welcome to the banque de france. we are extremely happy with our partnership with the cepr. the symposium is its most visible part, and having it in paris means a lot to us - we really appreciate this collaboration. my topic today is global imbalances. i will start with a few stylized facts, first coming back to the old period of the gold standard. the long history of global imbalances : decline and re - emergence of global imbalances in the xxist century global imbalances are not new : they were already very large during the gold standard period. on my slide [ slide 3 ], the left - hand graph shows countries with current account surpluses up to around 6 % of gdp. the right - hand graph shows countries with around 10 % of gdp deficits. the price – specie flow mechanism, which should have corrected imbalances under the gold standard, was not working properly. starting in years 1970 ’ s, with the introduction of flexible exchange rate regimes, external adjustment would hopefully be facilitated. [ slide 3 : global imbalances have a long history ] the 21st century started off with growing current account imbalances, followed by a contraction of these imbalances after the global financial crisis [ slide 4 ]. then, after the covid crisis, global imbalances started to grow again. several explanations were given for the re - emergence of global imbalances in the 21st century : consumption smoothing, international capital mobility, more efficient allocation of capital, but also the savings glut as well as the exorbitant privilege. we should not worry, however, about the imbalances themselves, but about their persistence and their accumulation. an abundant literature about allocation puzzles analyses the distortions that hinder the efficient allocation of capital, cause an accumulation of net foreign asset positions, and induce a need for constant refinancing for some countries. our question today is the re - emergence of imbalances after 2020, and whether this mechanism differs from previous events. [ slide 4 : decline and re - emergence of global imbalances in the xxist century ] the euro area is an instructive illustration : current account imbalances increased before the global financial crisis and decreased afterwards [ slide 5 ]. interestingly

kyrylo shevchenko : national bank of ukraine press briefing monetary policy statement speech by mr kyrylo shevchenko, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at a press briefing on monetary policy, kyiv, 9 december 2021. * * * dear colleagues, please be informed that the nbu board has decided to raise the key policy rate to 9 % per annum. the decision is aimed at neutralizing the impact of additional pro - inflationary risks, improving inflation expectations, and ensuring steady disinflation toward the nbu ’ s target of 5 %. what price dynamics followed the previous nbu board meeting on monetary policy issues? the growth in consumer prices decelerated to 10. 9 % yoy in october. the nbu estimates inflation continued to decline in november. the decline was driven by : the vanished effect of the last year ’ s low comparison base better harvests gathered this year administrative decisions on public utility rates the strengthening of the hryvnia in previous months the impact of the nbu ’ s previous decisions to tighten its monetary policy. at the same time, disinflation was somewhat slower than the nbu had predicted in itsoctober forecast. the decline in inflation was restrained by : higher pressures on prices of an increasingly wider list of consumer - basket goods and services due to the rise in food and energy prices businesses ’ higher expenses on logistics and wages domestic consumer demand remaining robust despite a slight deterioration in consumer confidence and the quarantine restrictions. additional pro - inflationary risks have also materialized. first, rising geopolitical tensions are affecting prices of ukrainian assets and fx market conditions. second, global prices for natural gas and food exceed the nbu ’ s expectations and are likely to remain high in the coming months. third, higher global inflation is prompting leading central banks to step up their monetary policy tightening. in turn, this lowers investor interest in assets of emerging markets ( including ukraine ). moreover, emerging market central banks are also actively raising their rates. for example, yesterday the central bank of brazil hiked its rate by 150 bp, to 9. 25 % per annum. this means the competition for foreign capital is getting stronger among emerging markets. how will prices change further on? inflation will continue to decline gradually until the end of this year and throughout the whole of 2022. 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches this year ’ s record - high harvest and a correction in global prices will help decelerate food price inflation