in these markets. 3 in contrast, researchers have not found evidence of these behaviors in corporate bond markets, where traditional dealers still intermediate most trades and there is much less high - frequency trading. 4 see joint staff report : the u. s. treasury market on october 15, 2014 ( pdf ), u. s. department of the treasury, board of governors of the federal reserve system, federal reserve bank of new york, u. s. securities and exchange commission, u. s. commodity futures trading commission, july 13, 2015, and conference summary : the evolving structure of the u. s. treasury market ( october 20 - 21, 2015 ) ( pdf ), federal reserve bank of new york, october 20, 2015. see tobias adrian, michael fleming, daniel stackman, and erik vogt, has liquidity risk in the treasury and equity markets increased?, liberty street economics ( blog ), october 6, 2015. see dobrislav dobrev and ernst schaumburg, the liquidity mirage october 9, 2015. see tobias adrian, michael fleming, or shachar, daniel stackman, and erik vogt, has liquidity risk in the corporate bond market increased?, liberty street economics ( blog ), october 6, 2015. bis central bankers ’ speeches, liberty street economics ( blog ), apart from such episodes of sudden volatility, questions about whether liquidity in fixedincome markets has broadly deteriorated are difficult to answer definitively. in exploring these topics, it is important to distinguish between treasury and corporate bond markets, which have different characteristics. in treasury markets, traditional measures of liquidity, such as bid - ask spreads, have been fairly stable in recent years. 5 but the changing market structure has also meant smaller average trade sizes, 6 and participants now must break up their larger trades and employ complicated strategies in order to avoid moving prices. accurately measuring the effect of trading on prices, perhaps the most fundamental gauge of market liquidity, can be quite difficult in such an environment. 7 there are also differences between on - the - run treasury securities, the securities that were most recently issued and that are the most liquid, and offthe - run treasury securities. however, observable measures such as the spread between onand off - the - run treasury securities do not show any trend change in liquidity between the two market segments since the financial crisis. in corporate bond markets, estimated bid - ask spreads have declined, indicating

richard h clarida : us economic outlook and monetary policy speech by mr richard h clarida, vice chairman of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the 35th annual nabe economic policy conference & quot ; promoting global growth and domestic economic security & quot ;, washington dc, 28 february 2019. * * * thank you for the opportunity to participate in the 35th annual economic policy conference of the national association for business economics. before we begin our conversation, i want to share a few thoughts about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. 1 current economic situation and outlook the u. s. economy expanded at a robust pace in 2018, and my baseline outlook for 2019 foresees somewhat slower but still - solid growth in the year ahead. in july, just about four months from now, the current economic expansion will become the longest on record. the federal reserve is charged by the congress with achieving and sustaining a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, and the economy is as close as it has been in many years to meeting these goals. the unemployment rate is near the lowest level recorded in 50 years, and average monthly job gains have continued to well outpace the increases needed over the longer run to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force. most measures of nominal wage growth are running at or somewhat above the 3 percent pace, and recent wage gains have been strongest for lowerskilled workers. moreover, the strength of the labor market appears to have encouraged people to join the labor force and others, who might have left it, to continue working. the labor force participation rate - the share of people who are either working or looking for work - - has moved up 1 / 2 percentage point over the past year, and the participation rate of prime - age workers ( those 25 to 54 years old ) has risen about 1 - 1 / 2 percentage points over the past few years. inflation, as measured by the 12 - month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures ( pce ), is estimated to have been a little bit below 2 percent of late, largely because of recent declines in energy prices. however, core pce inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation, is estimated to have been about 2 percent. market - based measures of inflation compensation have moved lower, on net, since last summer, though they have increased some recently, and some survey - based measures of longer