digital currency may help to maintain competition in the payments market and offer the characteristics of legal tender. looking ahead, norges bank will assess further how well the solutions being considered are able to offer the necessary and desirable characteristics. then we will decide whether to proceed with testing. this is a long - term undertaking, and it is still too early to draw any conclusions. this work also interfaces with other measures to ensure a sound payment system and confidence in the monetary system. we must consider the combination of measures, by both public and private entities, that can best enable us to perform our social mission. the payment system is changing. new structural features like vertical integration, internationalisation, new market entrants and increased concentration of providers suggest that norges bank must assess how it will perform its role. our ambition must be to maintain a payment system that is at least on par with comparable countries. i said at the outset that a nation needs an efficient and secure payment system. if it does not function, that nation ’ s currency will lose its place in the monetary system. and therefore, for every central bank that issues a currency, it is important to govern and control developments in the payment system. this is the core issue : only norges bank can provide final and secure settlement in norwegian kroner. this will be the fundamental tenet for ensuring that the payment system in norway continues to be efficient and up - to - date. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches

while opec passively accommodates any remaining demand by increasing its production capacity. alternatively, opec can take a more active position and push up prices even further by capping production. only a few years ago, a long - term price of around usd 20 - 25 ( in real value ) per barrel was the normal estimate. analyses such as that presented by the imf suggest that the long - term oil price level may be considerably higher than this. let us return to the norwegian economy, and the possibilities and challenges facing norway. the projections in inflation report 1 / 05, published on 16 march, are based on a gradual increase in the interest rate. this is in line with financial and foreign exchange market expectations. it is assumed that the exchange rate will shadow movements in the forward exchange rate. this implies that the krone will remain fairly stable around the current level in the years ahead. mainly as a result of persistently high oil prices and expectations that oil prices will remain high, investment in the petroleum sector may reach record levels this year. the investment intentions survey for the petroleum sector points to very high growth. the level is expected to remain high throughout the projection period. activity in the petroleum sector will have spillover effects on the mainland economy, initially on the engineering industry and the construction sector. the scale of petroleum investment and its spillover effects are highly uncertain. the last time petroleum investment showed a sharp increase, in 1997 / 1998, growth was substantially stronger than had been assumed. an upturn occurred in the norwegian economy as a whole at the same time. the unexpected increase in petroleum investment contributed to an economic upturn that was substantially stronger than projected. if oil prices rise further or remain at the current high level for a long period, petroleum investment may again amplify the cyclical upturn to a greater extent than projected. the upturn in mainland fixed investment is broadly based. improved profitability, higher capacity utilisation and solid export growth will contribute to continued investment growth in goods - producing industries. demand for services is expected to continue to expand for a period ahead with an attendant increase in investment in service sectors. when growth in the economy gradually slows, investment growth will probably slacken. mainland exports of goods and services will continue to benefit from solid global growth this year. later in the period, a continued loss of market shares as a result of high cost levels will dampen export growth. growth in private consumption is expected to remain high this year and next.