gabriel makhlouf : opening remarks - economics winter workshop opening remarks by mr gabriel makhlouf, governor of the central bank of ireland, at second annual " economics winter workshop ", organised by the central bank of ireland, dublin, 20 december 2024. * * * good morning everyone, it is my great pleasure to welcome you all to the central bank of ireland for our second annual " economics winter workshop. " building on the success of last year's inaugural event, it is fantastic to see this workshop going from strength to strength. the program ahead promises a very interesting array of speakers and papers, addressing some of the most pressing issues at the forefront of our work here in policy institutions. this workshop is being held following a turbulent few years for countries around the world, including ireland. policymakers have navigated the profound economic disruptions of the covid - 19 pandemic, the geopolitical upheaval following russia's invasion of ukraine, and the resulting surge in inflation - levels not seen in most advanced economies since the 1970s. at last week's ecb governing council meeting, we made the decision to cut our three policy rates by 25 basis points, reflecting confidence that the disinflation process remains on track. for us, sound policymaking rests on a foundation of robust, evidence - based research. only by delving deeply into understanding individual questions can we fully comprehend and address the complexities of the broader economic landscape. research plays a central role in fulfilling our mandate at the central bank of ireland. earlier this year, for example, our thematic signed article on housing in ireland demonstrated how rigorous internal research directly informs and enhances our policy advice and communication. this thematic article approach is something we plan to continue into the future, exploring some of the most relevant questions for the irish economy. today's sessions and policy panel reflect the four main pillars of our research agenda : the small open economy, new horizons, central bank frameworks, and the evolving financial system. these themes guide our efforts to navigate a rapidly changing global economy. while we are fortunate to have highly skilled researchers within the bank, we recognize that collaboration with external academics and institutions strengthens our capacity to do policy - relevant research. initiatives such as our research affiliates program are helping us forge valuable connections, and we were delighted to host our first two visiting scholars this year. looking ahead, we are excited to welcome several more scholars and research affiliates next year as part of our continued commitment

11 per cent down ). unemployment we think will continue to rise somewhat during 2010, though a reversal of net migration flows will serve to limit this. the current recession has resulted in a significant deterioration in the labour market position of the young in the worst affected countries. in germany, the unemployment rate has hardly moved during the recession, whether at the aggregate level or among the under - 25s. in the usa, which has seen its aggregate unemployment rate double from about 5 to about 10 per cent, youth unemployment went up only slightly faster from 12 to 19 per cent. but in ireland youth unemployment has jumped from less than 10 per cent to over 31 per cent in the past two years – much faster than the aggregate rate which has gone from 4. 7 to 13. 3 per cent. ( spain has had an even worse experience ). this has to be turned around : and that will require determination. some lessons can be learnt from past experience here. this is the fourth major recession i have lived through, though i was only in primary school for the dip of the mid - 1950s which prompted the sea - change in economic policy and gave us the outward - looking globalised society we live in today. globalisation has allowed us to converge in average living standards to the european frontier, but globalisation also does seem to be associated with heightened volatility, and the depth of the current downturn reflects the over - heated expansion that preceded it, which in turn was fuelled by credit sucked - in to ireland all too readily from the globalised financial system. in short, we did not manage our engagement with the global economy in a manner consistent with stable growth. but if globalised economies can fall far, their recovery can also be vigorous. the spectacular recovery of employment and fall in unemployment after the deep recession of the mid - 1980s has rightly been attributed among other things to the wage restraint that characterized the social partnership from 1987 on. wage restraint is all the more important now, when price levels have been falling, with the result that nominal wage rates that might have been viable a couple of years ago, no longer make commercial sense. the problem is even worse because of the unsustainable upward drift in wages that occurred in the mid 2000s. i am sorry to bang on about this, but central banks aim at overall price stability to help ensure that wage and price planning can be carried out in a manner that ensures stable growth. when, as in ireland today, inflation undershoots