in housing markets ; for example, the financial policy 2 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches committee of the bank of england has the authority to tighten ltv or dti limits when threats to financial stability emerge from the u. k. housing market. stricter ltv or dti limits find some measure of success. one study conducted across 119 countries from 2000 to 2013 suggests that lower ltv limits lead to slower credit growth. 16 in addition, evidence from a range of studies suggests that decreases in the ltv ratio lead to a slowing of the rate of house price appreciation. 17 however, some other research suggests that the effectiveness of ltv limits is not significant or somewhat temporary. 18 other macroprudential policies focus on lenders. first and foremost, tightening bank capital regulation enhances loss - absorbing capacity, strengthening financial system resilience. in addition, bank capital requirements for mortgages that increase when house prices rise may be used to lean against mortgage credit growth and house price appreciation. 19 these policies are intended to make bank mortgage lending more expensive, leading borrowers to reduce their demand for credit, which tends to push house prices down. estimates of the effects of such changes vary widely : after consideration of a range of estimates from the literature, an increase of 50 percentage points in the risk weights on mortgages would result in a house price decrease from as low as 0. 6 percent to as high as 4. 0 percent. 20 these policies are more effective if borrowers are fairly sensitive to a rise in interest rates and if migration of intermediation outside the banking sector to nonbanks is limited. of course, regulatory reforms and in some countries, macroprudential policies are still being implemented, and analysis is currently under way to monitor the effects. so far, research suggests that macroprudential tightening is associated with slower bank credit growth, slower housing credit growth, and less house price appreciation. borrower, lender, and securitizationfocused macroprudential policies are likely all useful in strengthening financial stability. loan modification in a crisis even though macroprudential policies reduce the incidence and severity of housing related crises, they may still occur. when house prices drop, households with mortgages may find themselves underwater, with the amount of their loan in excess of their home ’ s current price. as atif mian and amir sufi have pointed out, this deterioration in household balance sheets can lead to a substantial drop in consumption and employment.

vast array of information we have at our disposal. of course, that includes the standard econometric toolkit. but we have also been increasingly relying on text analytics and machine learning. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches as a result, this conference is highly relevant for us at the federal reserve, and likely those at other central banks as well. more timely and accurate information and improved methodological techniques permit federal reserve staff to produce better estimates of the evolving economic outlook, which allows policymakers to make moreinformed decisions. it is reassuring to know that the use of these nontraditional data and techniques for academic research and for policy is no longer in its infancy. the breadth and depth of studies captured in the agenda display the material inroads of these data and methods into economic research. i am pleased to see colleagues and important contributors to this field on the conference program. jed kolko, julapa jagtiani, arthur turrell, and hal varian will discuss issues related to the opportunities and challenges for government and privatesector institutions in response to nontraditional data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. similarly, an academic panel with jesus fernandez - villaverde, sydney ludvigson, stephen hansen, and chiara farronato will discuss how these data and methods have helped push the research frontier in subjects ranging from macroeconomic modeling to online markets. as i noted in recent remarks, there has been a surge in excitement and trepidation about generative ai. 3 the range of social effects from this new technology could be broad. jack clark, one of the co - founders of anthropic, will soon offer a keynote, and i am sure we are all looking forward to hearing his insights on the practical applications of this new ai technology and the potential use cases for economic research and policymaking. i am especially interested in seeing progress on " explainable ai, " which can bridge the divide between the technical sphere and users. i am looking forward to any discussions on this area. these generative ai tools could also have implications closer to home, as they may influence how we conduct central bank communications. there is a growing literature that uses natural language processing techniques to discern how communications by central bankers are perceived by the news media, and, in turn, how that influences financial markets. the presentations by christopher neely, clara vega, xin zhang, and xu zhang will discuss the state of the art on this subject, which