in infrastructure investment and an upswing in other areas of investment. the labour market is also strong, with many people finding jobs. this year, we will also benefit from a further boost to liquefied natural gas ( lng ) exports. the lower exchange rate and a lift in some commodity prices are also assisting. against this generally positive picture, the major domestic uncertainty is the strength of consumption and the housing market. we will be releasing a full updated set of forecasts in the statement on monetary policy ( smp ) on friday. close readers of the smp will notice that we will now be publishing forecasts for a wider set of variables than has previously been the case. 1 we hope that this helps people understand the various forces shaping the economy. today, i can give you a summary of the key numbers. our central forecast is for the australian economy to expand by around 3 per cent over 2019 and 2¾ per cent over 2020 ( graph 4 ). for 2018, the outcome is expected to be a bit below 3 per cent. this type of growth should be sufficient to see further gradual progress in lowering unemployment. graph 4 5 / 13 bis central bankers'speeches these forecasts are lower than the ones we published three months ago. for 2018, the outcome is affected by the surprisingly soft gdp number in the september quarter and the abs's downward revisions to estimates of growth earlier in the year. we are expecting a stronger gdp outcome in the december quarter, with other indicators of economic activity painting a stronger picture than suggested by the september quarter national accounts. for 2019 and 2020, the forecasts have been revised down by around ¼ percentage point, largely reflecting a modest downgrading of the outlook for household consumption and residential construction. i will talk more about this in a moment. the outlook for the labour market remains positive. the national unemployment rate currently stands at 5 per cent, the lowest in over seven years ( graph 5 ). in new south wales and victoria, the unemployment rate is around 4¼ per cent. you have to go back to the early 1970s to see sustained lower rates of unemployment in these two states. the forward - looking indicators of the labour market also remain positive. the number of job vacancies is at a record high and firms'hiring intentions remain strong. our central scenario is that growth will be sufficient to see a modest further decline in unemployment to around 4¾ per cent over the next couple of years. graph 5 6 / 13 bis central bankers '

philip lowe : the year ahead address by mr philip lowe, governor of the reserve bank of australia, to the national press club of australia, sydney, 6 february 2019. * * * i would like to thank andrea brischetto for assistance in the preparation of this talk. thank you for the opportunity to address the national press club. it is an honour to have been invited. the media and the rba have a special relationship. most people in the community hear the rba's messages through the media. you report on what we say, you filter it and you critique it. we also help you with your work. the rba is a reliable source of information and analysis on issues that your audiences care about, including interest rates, housing prices and jobs. this means we have a strong mutual interest in understanding one another. i hope that today will help strengthen that understanding. this is my first public speech for 2019, so i would like to talk about the year ahead and some of the key issues that the rba will be focusing on. i will first discuss the global economy and then turn to the australian economy and particularly the outlook for household spending. i will finish with a few remarks on the outlook for monetary policy. at the outset, i want to emphasise that we don't have a crystal ball that allows us to see the future with certainty. i know many of you are looking for definitive answers to questions like, ‘ where will the cash rate be this time next year? ’, ‘ how much will housing prices fall? ’, ‘ when will wages growth reach 3 per cent? ’. they are all good questions. the reality, though, is that the future is uncertain. none of us can say with certainty what will happen. what the rba can do, though, is highlight the issues that are likely to shape the future, explain how we are thinking about those issues, and discuss how they fit into our decision - making framework. that is what i hope to do today. the global economy i will start with the global economy, because what happens overseas has a major bearing on what happens in australia. my main point here is that while some of the downside risks have increased, the central scenario for the world economy still looks to be supportive of growth in australia. it is worth recalling that 2018 was a good year for the world economy. growth in the advanced economies was above trend in the first half of the year, unemployment rates reached their lowest levels