created for highly skilled employees, whereas jobs for medium or lowskilled workers grew slowly ( see figure 3 ). 5 / 16 bis central bankers'speeches explaining the slow post - crisis recovery : demand or supply? while slower productivity advances may have been weighing on economic growth since the early 2000s, it cannot explain why recoveries towards potential growth were so weak and slow. bob hall ( 2017 ) tries to identify sources of stagnation tendencies in his sintra paper by looking at developments in real earnings per member of the population in six major advanced economies ( france, germany, italy, spain, the united kingdom and the united states ) between 2000 and 2014. he regards this as a particularly suitable metric, because it measures the well - being of a majority of populations. in the seven years following the start of the financial crisis, germany in particular but also france appear to have experienced little stagnation, with positive annual growth rates of labour earnings. the most stagnating economies were italy and spain with negative annual growth rates of almost 2 %, whereas the uk and the us saw more moderate stagnation. hall suggests assessing the plausibility of factors explaining stagnation tendencies by 6 / 16 bis central bankers'speeches decomposing real earnings per capita into seven components ( the labour share of total income, multifactor productivity, the capital - output ratio, hours per worker, the employment rate, the labour - force participation rate and the ratio of working - age population to total population ). table 1, taken from his paper, shows the annual growth rates for five of these components between 2007 and 2014. first of all, the many green ( favourable, mostly positive values ) cells in the first row illustrate the relatively positive developments for german workers. second, the declining labour share in total income ( see first column “ share ” ) is a broad - based international problem, which hall characterised as “ the hot topic in quantitative macroeconomics ”. ( not only is it present in the us, many european countries and japan but also in china ; see karabarbounis and neiman ( 2014 ), figures ii and iii, and hall 2017, figure 2 ). third, protracted unemployment weighs particularly on labour earnings in southern europe ( “ employment rate ” column ). the primary stagnation factor in france is the labour share while in the uk it is productivity. finally, the single red ( negative value ) cell in the last column ( “ participation ” )

olli rehn : financial stability in the world of geopolitical fragmentation and rapid technological change speech by mr olli rehn, governor of the bank of finland, at the 2023 risklab - bofesrb conference on systemic risk analytics, organised by the risklab ( at arcada ), the bank of finland and the european systemic risk board, helsinki, 8 june 2023. * * * good morning ladies and gentlemen, friends and colleagues, let me welcome you to the conference on systemic risk analytics, jointly organised by the risklab [ at arcada ], bank of finland and the european systemic risk board. i also welcome you to the bank of finland – suomen pankki – the fourth oldest central bank in the world, established in 1811. in my opening remarks, i will focus on financial stability in the world of geopolitical fragmentation and rapid technological change. meanwhile, i will not even touch upon monetary policy, as we have just started the ecb's silent period a few hours ago. let me begin by noting that the global financial system and banking system have remained remarkably resilient after the global financial crisis, despite recently being hit by waves of unexpected shocks : covid - 19, russia's brutal and illegal war against ukraine, and a sharp increase in inflation. however, the failure of the silicon valley bank and some smaller banks in the us, as well as the forced sale of credit suisse to ubs just three months ago – the " march madness " – reminded us that we can never take financial stability for granted. with that in mind, i am very much looking forward to hearing steven cecchetti's views on how to make banking safer, in his keynote speech right after these opening remarks. i also appreciate the strong focus of this conference on non - bank financial intermediation and climate risks. the role of non - banks like money market funds and insurance companies in the global financial system has clearly been increasing. and it goes without saying that climate change, if not properly addressed, may create serious risks also to financial stability. dear colleagues, in the last few years, we have seen that crises can happen at any time and take unexpected forms. just after the world had recovered from the pandemic, the war broke out in europe. the geopolitical environment is now changing as rapidly as it did in the late 80s and early 90s. at that time, the berlin wall crumbled, the soviet