use of the renminbi for the measurement and settlement of cross - border flows and, through this channel, as a reserve currency. 7 the latter includes the so - called “ belt and road initiative ”, the china development bank, the export - import bank of china, and recently created multilateral organizations such as the new development bank and the asian infrastructure investment bank, in combination with the growing global network of foreign exchange swap lines between the people ’ s bank of china and central banks abroad. notwithstanding the remarkable advances of recent years, progress towards a deeper and more extended internationalization of the renminbi remains once a currency ’ s international use for transactional purposes has been established, incentives for trading partners to stabilize exchange rates against it lead them to accumulate reserves denominated in that currency, as well as to seek contingent liquidity provision from the part of its issuer, thus resulting in its use also as a means to store value. limited and with important geographical differences in both outcomes and perspectives. 8 on the one hand, china ’ s greater significance and influence in asia compared to that at the global scale, certainly add to the renminbi ’ s other advantages in explaining the important role of this currency at the regional level. the latter is explained partly by the numerous official measures and initiatives purposely aiming at greater economic interaction between china and other asian countries. however, trade is undoubtedly the main force driving the wider cross - border use of the renminbi in the region. indeed, recent trade figures show that around one half of chinese imports originate in asia, a development that is in turn reflected in the renminbi ’ s dominant role as reference for the determination of the value of other currencies in the region, above and beyond those of the dollar or the euro, 9 while also featuring prominently as the currency of choice for payments with china. going forward, the current prospects of continued growth of the chinese economy, albeit at lower rates than in the past, in conjunction with likely deeper and more extensive linkages between china and other economies in the region, as well as anticipated reforms in the former allowing a freer use of its currency externally, support the expectation of a further strengthening of these trends over the next several years. the importance of trade in enhancing the international role of the renminbi is also illustrated by the fact that this currency has become the see eichengreen, b. and d. lombardi ( 2017 ) : “ rmbi or rmbr? is

remarks by mr. javier guzman calafell, deputy governor at the banco de mexico, on “ emerging economies in a new global cycle : central bank perspectives ”, at the 9th annual conference organized by the central reserve bank of peru and the reinventing bretton woods committee “ new challenges for global economic integration ”. cusco, peru, july 24, 2017. 1 i thank the banco central de reserva del peru and the reinventing bretton woods committee for the invitation to participate in this event. after having reached a post - crisis low in 2016, global economic activity seems to be transitioning to a faster, although still moderate, growth trajectory starting this year. the recovery is supported by the upturn in global merchandise trade, notably in capital goods, and an improved dynamism in the industrial sector, especially in manufacturing. the improved economic situation in the advanced economies is particularly noteworthy. naturally, this has enhanced confidence in the global economic outlook and reduced the perception of risks deriving from tail scenarios, although these cannot be completely ruled out. notwithstanding these positive developments, the world economy seems to have lost part of the long - term dynamism displayed in the past, as global gdp growth during 2017 - 2022 is forecast to be, on average, almost one percentage the opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the institutional position of the banco de mexico or of its board of governors as a whole. point lower than in the pre - crisis years of 2000 - 2007. furthermore, the current juncture continues to be characterized by a number of important risks. to start with, the future evolution of the global economy faces a high level of uncertainty related to the lack of clarity and details about the direction to be taken by economic policy in the united states, particularly on the fiscal, regulatory and trade fronts. second, the recent strengthening of a widespread sentiment against globalization, along with the political support it has been able to garner, certainly threatens to stall, and in some instances even reverse, the progress towards the economic and financial integration of the global economy achieved over the last decades. third, as the ongoing recovery continues, it is natural to expect that the normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies will begin to generalize. while this should in principle be considered as a positive development, it is not free of risks, as it implies a tightening of financial conditions for emerging market economies ( emes ) and a major policy shift with potential