this may also result in lower credit growth through the winter and spring. credit growth by borrower sector and house prices. 12 - month rise. per cent non - financial corporate sector households house prices sources : norwegian association of real estate agents, eff, finn. no, econ ef, econ and norges bank sg gausdal 31. 01. 03 the sharp rise in electricity prices may lead to lower growth in consumption this year. higher electricity expenses reduce household purchasing power. many enterprises will also be facing higher costs. on the other hand, high electricity prices generate revenues for central and local government. electricity prices 1 january 1998 = 100 spot prices incl. tax and grid rental electricity prices index in the cpi * * electricity ( including grid rental ) accounts for 3. 3 % of cpi jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 sources : statistics norway, nordpool, viken energi and norges bank sg gausdal 31. 01. 03 higher electricity prices will result in a sharp increase in the consumer price index this winter. the year - on - year rate of increase in the consumer price index may approach 4 per cent in january and february. underlying inflation will also be affected. for example, this can be the result of higher rents and higher costs in some business sectors. however, these effects can to a large extent be disregarded. assuming that weather conditions remain fairly normal over the next year, the rise in prices at the same time next year will be that much lower. electricity prices will then make a comparable negative contribution to overall inflation. conclusion in retrospect, developments over the past decade feature several elements of a normal business cycle. following a long period of expansion in the 1990s, the economy is stagnating as a result of overheating in the labour market, high wage growth and high borrowing in the private sector. the new guidelines for monetary policy were introduced in march 2001 when there were pressures in the economy, expectations of increased use of petroleum revenues and growing divergence between cyclical developments in norway and abroad. today, after close to two years of inflation targeting, experience shows that monetary policy has an impact on inflation. in this respect, the experience has been uplifting. future developments are uncertain. our internationally exposed sectors may be hard hit because this time the tightening has to a large extent been the result of a strong krone and a downturn in our export markets. it may take time to

of the fall of the iron curtain. we recall from those times the russian word glasnost, which means openness. mikhail gorbachev sought to modernise the soviet union and used glasnost as a means of reducing corruption and abuse of power. in western democracies, the term glasnost took on a broader meaning, and was associated with detente between east and west in the 1980s. 11 as mentioned, the shift towards a more decentralised economy both in norway and abroad reflected the failure of centralised planning. monetary policy is an important component of the economic policy framework. 12 in my lecture here last year, 13 i noted that it can be demanding for the political authorities to ensure price stability because low interest rates are often more popular than high interest rates. an appropriate interest rate may therefore be demanding to see nou ( official norwegian report ) 1973 : 36 om prisproblemene ( on price problems ). for an account of economic policy in norway in the twentieth century, see tore jørgen hanisch, espen søilen and gunhild j. ecklund ( 1999 ) : norsk økonomisk politikk i det 20. arhundre. verdivalg i en apen økonomi ( economic policy in norway in the 20th century. ethics in an open economy ), høyskoleforlaget. see i. e., chapter 5 in the norwegian act on securities trading. in norway, the concept is also associated with jahn teigen ’ s contribution “ glasnost ” in the national final of the eurovision song contest 1988. during the financial crisis last winter the government wrote : “ monetary policy is the first line of defence in countering a setback in the economy ”. see report no. 37 ( 2008 - 09 ) to the storting ( norwegian parliament ) “ om endringer i statsbudsjettet 2009 med tiltak for arbeid ( on changes in the 2009 budget and labour measures ), ministry of finance, p. 6. the lecture entitled “ on keeping promises ”, remarks by endre stavang and henrik syse and francis sejersted ’ s summary of the debate have been published in nytt norsk tidsskrift 1 / 2009. set in government corridors. 14 most government authorities in democratic countries have solved this problem by delegating interest rate setting to an independent central bank. but