. moreover, the upturn in investment that began last year has also continued during the first half of 2005. export growth, however, was somewhat weaker than expected during the first half of the year owing to the dip in international economic activity. however, monthly data for goods exports and the nier's business tendency data for new export orders point to a slight pick - up recently. the high productivity growth in recent years indicates continued good growth in the swedish economy in the coming years. it has meant that companies have been able to increase their production with their existing work forces. this in turn has improved the cost situation for companies and held back price increases in the economy. the low inflation rate has made it possible to conduct an expansionary monetary policy for a comparatively long period. at the same time, the high productivity and relatively good corporate profitability can be expected to be reflected in favourable wage growth in the period ahead. altogether, this means that the prospects for good for firm growth in domestic demand and employment over the coming years. 2 / 4 compared with the assessment in june, we today have somewhat more expansionary monetary policy. the budget bill that was presented in september also suggests that fiscal policy, particularly in 2006, will be slightly more expansionary that we anticipated then. that indicates that we might have to revise up our growth forecasts for the swedish economy somewhat in the years ahead. all in all, this means that growth appears able to remain firm in the coming years. gradually, however, growth should slacken somewhat, which is in line with a normal cyclical pattern with a normalisation of growth in investment and productivity. less expansionary economic policy is also expected to contribute to somewhat lower growth in 2007 and 2008. capacity pressures to rise gradually as regards developments in the labour market, the assessment of the current tendencies has been made more difficult by the change in methods in the labour force survey. with this reservation, it can nevertheless be said that there are signs that the situation in the labour market is improving. according to the national accounts the number of hours worked began to rise in the second quarter this year. however, we have not yet been able to see any marked increase in employment since average working hours have risen. when there is an upturn in the economy existing staff are initially used more intensively, and only at a later stage do firms add to their workforces. labour market indicators, however, are pointing to a gradual pick - up in employment. for instance, the

is expected to continue slackening. orders from the export market have so far declined in 2008. new statistics on foreign trade indicate that a slowdown can be expected during the second quarter, roughly in line with the assessment made in the april monetary policy update. but it is difficult to compare foreign trade in recent months with the corresponding period last year, as we have had a leap year this year and the easter holiday came unusually early. this has an effect on the number of business and working days. employment has continued to increase relatively strongly in recent months and unemployment is still falling slightly. but there are also indications that the labour market will weaken in the future. the number of redundancy notices in april was double that in the same month last year. at the same time, it is still difficult to find the right competence to fill job vacancies in some industries. the demand for labour has declined in recent months, for instance, the number of newly - reported vacancies has declined. this picture is confirmed by the national institute of economic research ’ s most recent economic tendency survey, which indicates a declining need for new recruitment in the business sector. the survey also shows that companies ’ views of the swedish economy have deteriorated. all in all, the confidence indicator for the business sector has moved from being stronger than normal to slightly weaker between april and may. the consumer tendency survey also indicates that consumers have become increasingly pessimistic. their view of the swedish economy has continued to deteriorate and they have also become gloomier with regard to their own economy. at the same time, households ’ inflation expectations one year ahead have risen significantly. however, it can also be noted that households perceive the current inflation rate to be much higher than it actually is. prior to our next monetary policy meeting we will receive measures of inflation expectations among other groups which must also be analysed ( prospera ). the new national accounts for the first quarter that were published earlier today show that growth in the first quarter was weaker than we had expected. they also show that labour productivity increased slightly in the first quarter of this year, after having fallen for most of 2007. we will be closely analysing what the new gdp statistics otherwise entail for our assessments prior to our next meeting in july. preliminary statistics indicate a lower rate of wage increase than we had estimated – both for blue - collar and white - collar workers – during the first months of this year. one possible reason for this is the