what is more, tightening in the credit supply conditions for corporate lending receded in this period ( chart 11 ). chart 10. chart 11. tl loan rates commercial loan standards * ( 4 - week average, percent ) ( net change ) source : brsa, cbrt. * banks are requested to state the change in the demand for credit. net percentage change of indexed responses indicates the direction of the change in credit demand. the index is calculated as [ the sum of percentages for ( increased somewhat + increased considerably ) ] – [ the sum of the percentages for ( decreased somewhat + decreased considerably ) ] + 100. index values greater than 100 signify increase in credit demand. source : cbrt. as a result of these developments, credit growth gained pace in the last quarter of the year ( chart 12 ). accordingly, annual rate of growth in total credit stock materialized around 16 percent at the end of the year, slightly higher than the 15 percent benchmark level for the medium term ( chart 13 ). total credit growth proved robust in early 2013, and the uptrend of 13 weeks in credit volume stood close to the past years ’ average. chart 12. chart 13. loan growth rates annual growth rate of loans ( adjusted for exchange rate, 13 - week average, annualized, percent ) ( percent ) source : cbrt. source : cbrt. bis central bankers ’ speeches there is a risk of further acceleration in credit in the forthcoming period. financial conditions index continued to ease with rapid capital inflows, improving credit supply conditions, and accommodative liquidity policy ( chart 14 ). this outlook necessitates a cautious stance against macro financial risks. given these evaluations, i would like to remind that in its first monthly meeting of 2013, the committee highlighted the faster - than - expected credit growth and signaled that macroprudential measures might be continued should this trend persist. chart 14. financial conditions index * for further details on financial conditions index, see cbrt economic notes no. 12 / 31 and report 2012 - iv, box 5. 2. source : cbrt. 2. macroeconomic developments and assumptions now, i will talk about the macroeconomic outlook and our assumptions which constitute the basis for our forecasts. first, i will summarize the recent inflation developments, and then compare the short term forecasts in the october inflation report with the actual year - end inflation data in 2012. then, i will continue

erkki liikanen : independent institutions and rule of law are essential for successful convergence speech by mr erkki liikanen, governor of the bank of finland, at the 7th ecb conference on central, eastern and south - eastern europen ( cesee ) countries " institutional quality and sustainable economic convergence ", frankfurt am main, 5 october 2017. * * * first a comment from the history of enlargements. the first post - cold war – enlargement negotiations started in march 1993. these were concluded in spring of 1994. austria, finland and sweden joined in january 1995. i was one of the negotiators then. in the middle of these negotiations, in june 1993, the danish presidency hosted copenhagen european council. the council wanted to show the path to 10 central and eastern european countries who desired to become a member of the eu. the summit defined three key pillars, preconditions for the membership : the membership requires : 1. the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities 2. the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the union 3. the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union. in the summit in essen in 1994 the pre - accession strategy was confirmed and it turned out to be very successful. four years later, in july 1997 the european commission assessed the candidate countries in her opinion. this opinion was a pre - condition for membership negotiations. i was a member of that european commission. the first chapter of the commission opinion analysed the political criteria with the title democracy and the rule of law. the judiciary, its structure and its functioning got a particular attention. it is no surprise to anyone that these issues remain a corner stone in the european union. when joining the eu, the countries took the commitment to respect these principle. it is also very important that european commission monitors the developments closely and takes also actions, when needed. the enlargement negotiations were launched in march 1998 in brussels. w e can all agree that economic convergence in the cesee countries has been a success. with the help of foreign investment and especially market access to the european union, countries in the region have been able to lift their incomes significantly. for example, during the past 25 years real per capita gross domestic product in hungary and the czech republic increased by