. linkages are rapidly increasing as we have seen about a three - fold expansion of the intra - asean trade over the past 20 years. asean also remains attractive in terms of investment since it accounted for an increased share of global foreign direct investment, about 5 percent five years ago but increased to about 14 percent in 2020. i think that all of you would probably agree that asean is a good place to be. thailand admittedly is not the largest market in asean as we are about half the size of indonesia. we are also no longer the fastest growing economy by any stretch of the imagination as vietnam is growing much faster than we are. but if you buy the argument that asean is a good place to be, then thailand is not a bad place to be to take advantage of the opportunities in asean. even though we are neither the largest economy nor the fastest growing economy, in many ways, thailand is the most connected economy in asean, not from a financial standpoint but from a real standpoint. let me share some thoughts on why thailand is a very connected economy. what kinds of things do we think of if we think about the well - connected economy? it has to have strong trade and investment linkages, good logistics, a good production hub, and a high degree of labor access. if we look at each of those dimensions, thailand is still an interesting place to be. in terms of trade, if we look at the share of intra - asean exports, the top of the list is singapore. however, it is not entirely their export because roughly 40 percent of singapore exports are transshipment from other places, so let us exclude singapore. next on the list is malaysia accounting for about 20 percent of intra - asean exports, but a large share of malaysian exports goes to singapore. thailand is next on the list at 18 percent. but if you ask which economy in asean is the most closely linked in terms of trade with other countries, and more broadly, in terms of diversity of products it exported and coverage of the countries it traded with, it turns out to be thailand. for example, thailand is the largest source of imports for seven of the nine asean countries, excluding thailand. the only two countries, where it is not thailand, are brunei, where it is malaysia, and singapore, where it is malaysia, but if you are talking about links from a trade standpoint with other countries, it turns out it is thailand. in terms of investment, the largest source of direct investment

we have a low level of external debt compared to our high level of international reserves and are running large current account surpluses consistently in the years preceding the crisis. therefore, our overall external position is strong. unlike other countries in the region, which have lower international reserves or higher external debts, they are more vulnerable to these swings in investor sentiment and resumption of risk - off trade. this transmission channel is thus not very worrisome for us as we are in a good position to handle capital outflows given our external strength. the second channel is the impact on the real economy from trade and investment, both direct and indirect. the direct channel is very small as the share of thai exports to russia and ukraine are only about 0. 4 percent of total thai exports, and the same applies to investment flows. the main issue we are more concerned about is the indirect effects that the situation will lead to supply chain disruptions or other impacts on the world economy that will have a knock - on effect on thailand. from the demand side, the global economy is going solidly in the major economies like the us and europe in the period leading into the conflict. we hence perceive that the recovery of the global economy is still quite strong and intact. although the russia - ukraine conflict will dampen the global economy, the situation is not likely to derail the recovery. it is important to note that the russia - ukraine conflict is a huge supply shock caused by commodity prices and certain selected materials that are important in the russia and ukraine export space. overall, it is still not a global economic or financial crisis. it may look like a crisis in russia, but the spread to other places seems to be limited, for example, the contagion of the risk that it translates to a european economic crisis is not very likely. that is another reason why both the direct and indirect impact of the russia - ukraine conflict on the thai economy via trade and investment will not be substantial. the third and the main transmission channel of the impact of the russia - ukraine conflict on thailand is through inflation. the surge in commodity prices has resulted in a much higher inflation outlook in thailand. we will be releasing our public estimate of the headline inflation later after our monetary policy committee meets. even though the headline inflation had jumped to 5. 3 % last month, we view that it is still manageable in thailand because it is concentrated in certain key segments, like energy and raw foods. therefore, inflation has not spread as broadly