such as germany ( 5. 4 per cent ), the netherlands ( 5. 4 per cent ), austria ( 4. 4 per cent ) and norway ( 3 per cent ). 24 i describe this in more detail in, for instance, svensson ( 2011a ). national institute of economic research ( 2012, figures 12 and 43 ). data gathered from eurostat and the bureau of labor statistics. as a result of the differences in publication dates between the countries, the most recent figures refer to july with regard to the united kingdom and norway, and to september for the netherlands, germany, austria, sweden and the united states. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 5 unemployment per cent of the labour force, seasonally - adjusted data austria norway usa sweden netherlands united kingdom germany sources : the bureau of labor statistics and eurostat i am sure most people would agree with me that actual unemployment is much higher now than any reasonable estimate of long - run sustainable rate of unemployment, even if i know of course that estimates of long - run sustainable rate of unemployment are uncertain. 25 why has monetary policy been so stringent that it now results in such low inflation and such high unemployment, a target fulfilment that must be regarded as very poor? why did the riksbank begin to raise the repo rate in summer 2010, despite the fact that the forecast for cpif inflation was below the target and the forecast for unemployment was above any reasonable estimate of the long - run sustainable rate of unemployment? 26 the reason could be that monetary policy has been aimed at limiting household debt, although this purpose was not as clearly stated as has been the case more recently. a more expansionary monetary policy, in line with what karolina ekholm and i have advocated, would have led to a better outcome in terms of inflation and unemployment. by the long - run sustainable rate of unemployment, also known as the long - run equilibrium rate of unemployment, i refer to the rate of unemployment in steady state, where the economy is in a state of what is known as balanced growth, the effect of all shocks has waned and expectations are fulfilled. this should not be confused with other more short - run equilibrium concepts. according to rogerson ( 1997 ), this is the only equilibrium concept for unemployment that is well - defined. the ministry of finance ’ s ( 2011 ) assessment from april 2011 entails a long - run sustainable rate of unemployment of 5 per cent. the national institute of economic research ’

and balances ”. the fact that different members make slightly different assessments and reach different conclusions is thus not so remarkable. however, in the case of the riksbank, the differences between the minority and the majority have been so great and so persistent that it has become evident that they are not merely temporary differences in, for instance, the assessment of economic developments. it rather seems to be a case of more profound differences in the ways of regarding monetary policy and what it can achieve. this need not necessarily be a problem, either. but it does require, at least, that a thorough analysis is made of the differences and that one attempts to evaluate, as far as possible, both points of view. the arguments in favour of a higher policy rate so how has the policy conducted by the riksbank in recent years been justified? why hasn ’ t the executive board wanted to conduct the more expansionary policy advocated by the see, for example, calmfors ( 2012 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches minority? such a policy would have had better target attainment in terms of inflation and unemployment, with higher inflation closer to the target and lower unemployment closer to a long - run sustainable rate. my view is that the arguments have not been particularly clear, at least earlier on, and that the stated motives have varied. 2 recently, however, the arguments appear to have converged somewhat. the main arguments against a more expansionary policy that have been put forward lately are that this type of policy would be too risky, given the size of household debt. 3 let me therefore use this argument as a starting point for my reasoning. the discussion among the executive board members to a large extent reflects a broader international debate on the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability, on whether household debt is too high and, if so, whether monetary policy should be used to try to limit indebtedness – although the swedish debate does contain a number of specific characteristics. in brief, one can say that those who believe the repo rate should be held extra high appear to think as follows. 4 if the interest rate is too low, households take on too much debt. a large share of the loans households take on are used to buy housing, which also pushes up housing prices. if indebtedness and house purchases are based on overly optimistic calculations, there is a risk of a heavy fall in housing prices when the mood changes, for some reason. if prices were to fall, many households would find