to decline to 6. 3 % at year - end 2019 and reach 5. 0 % at the end of 2020. that said, inflation will already be in the target range of 5 % + / - 1 pp in early 2020, as planned. the disinflation will primarily be due to the tight monetary policy. inflation will be also 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches curbed by : prudent fiscal policy driven by the repayment of large volumes of public debt in 2019 – 2020 ; slower wage growth, as domestic wages converge with wages in neighboring countries and migration moderates ; relatively low exchange rate volatility resulting in low imported inflation ; a decrease in energy prices in the global markets ; weak growth in raw food prices. these factors will make core inflation decline to 5 % in 2019, down from 8. 7 % in 2018, and to a level below 4 % in 2020 – 2021. at the same time, the further planned increases in administered prices, which are required to bring them to market levels, will impact consumer price inflation. the nbu has also performed scheduled revisions of other macroeconomic forecasts last year, the ukrainian economy grew more rapidly than in any of the past seven years – by 3. 3 % according to our latest estimates. however, real gdp growth will slow to 2. 5 % this year, as predicted. the slowdown will be driven by the tight monetary policy necessary to bring inflation down to the target level and by the conservative fiscal policy intended to finance significant public debt repayments this year. in addition, the grain harvest is expected to decline from the record levels that made agriculture the primary driver of economic growth. another factor will be a gradual deceleration of growth in the global economy and trade, including due to protectionist measures. private consumption will remain a key driver of growth as real household income – wages, pensions, and remittances from abroad – continues to grow. although investment activity will slow down, it will remain an important driver of demand for investment imports. as a result, even given a revival in export - oriented industrial production and record grain exports, imports will grow faster than exports in real terms. consequently, the contribution of net exports will remain negative, although smaller than before. next year, real economy growth will start to accelerate, hitting 2. 9 % in 2020 and 3. 7 % in 2021. the growth will mainly be propelled by a gradual easing in monetary policy, which will bolster domestic demand

%. prices for grains and iron ore remained almost unchanged. uncertainty over the spread of the novel coronavirus, and stronger turbulence on financial and commodity markets saw the ukrainian fx market respond with deteriorated sentiment and 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches increased nervousness. this has led to a sizeable increase in demand for foreign currency, which exceeded the supply, starting last week. the nbu has been active on the interbank foreign exchange market since last week in order to smooth out large fluctuations of the exchange rate. this week alone, net fx sales by the nbu reached usd 700 million, and the central bank is ready to conduct more fx interventions if necessary. despite the fact that the psychological factor is the only reason for the fx market turmoil, it poses a risk of a deterioration in inflation expectations, which can later affect consumer prices. although so far the global spread of the novel coronavirus has had little effect on economic growth and inflation in ukraine, the nbu will most probably have to revise its macroeconomic forecasts in april. after all, the following consequences of the spread of the coronavirus have not yet impacted economic activity and inflation in ukraine : the downward pressure on prices and a cooling of the global economy monetary policy easing by central banks of the leading economies and ukraine ’ s trading partners in response to these processes measures taken by governments to prevent the spread of covid - 19. apart from the drop in global prices caused by the coronavirus, disinflation in ukraine will be driven by the recent rise in competition between crude oil producers. this will keep energy prices at record lows, which will also impact prices for ukrainian exports. overall, the effect of all these factors on economic growth and inflation in ukraine will be mixed, adding to the uncertainty. what other factors did the nbu consider when making its monetary policy decision today? the nbu board continued to rely on the key assumption that cooperation with the imf will continue. signing a new agreement with the imf will make the ukrainian economy less vulnerable in a time of turbulent global markets and during a period of heavy public debt repayments. investors ’ perception of ukraine will also depend on ukrainian court rulings on the responsibility and liabilities to the state of the former owners of insolvent banks. the risk arising from the global spread of the novel coronavirus could, if realized, drive the global economy into a recession and cause a significant slowdown in the ukrainian economy. a dramatic decline in global demand and investors