value, this limit is estimated to be lek 7. 7 billion. the monetary program for 2004 forecasts that the bank of albania financing of the budget deficit will be lek 7. 5 billion. this financing by the bank of albania is necessary in covering the budget deficit, considering a small growth of the m2 and lek deposits. the monetary program forecasts that the increase of lek deposits during 2004 will be sufficient in covering the other part of lek 12. 5 billion of the deficit financing from the banking system. the following table shows the allocation as to trimesters of the budget deficit financing for the banking system. table 9. allocation of the budget deficit financing ( lek billion ). t1 t2 t3 t4 banking system financing 7. 2 4. 2 3. 6 5. 0 20. 0 - bank of albania 1. 9 1. 9 1. 9 1. 9 7. 5 - commercial banks 5. 3 2. 3 1. 7 3. 1 12. 5 the bank of albania financing is assumed to be the same throughout the four trimesters, providing thus the financing performance from commercial banks according to the demand forecasted by the government. however, the allocation of the bank of albania financing may undergo potential changes depending on the liquidity performance of the banking system from one trimester to the other. 3. 2. 3 credit to the economy the business needs for borrowing to support their businesses have been growing in these recent years. the same tendency is expected for 2004, too. credit to the economy for the next year is forecasted to increase by lek 16. 5 billion. compared to the credit balance increase in 2003, this one is nearly lek 3. 6 billion, or 28 percent higher. the credit to the economy forecast is based on its performance during the last nine months. albeit the high - level of liquidity during this year, the credit balance increase was lower than in the previous years. in the next year, the credit balance increase in lek is expected to keep the same rates, marking an annual increase of lek 2 billion in absolute value. foreign currency credit increase is expected to be nearly lek 14. 5 billion, or 88 percent of the total increase of the credit to the economy. the difference between the credit interest rates in lek and those in foreign currency is assumed to be one of main reasons of the slow increase of credit in lek. moreover, the high level of the banking

navigating the great transition : an emerging market perspective speech by dr. veerathai santiprabhob governor of the bank of thailand school of international and public affairs, columbia university october 5, 2016 ladies and gentlemen, it is a pleasure for me to be here in new york and to have a chance to participate in the policy discussion at sipa. given the increasingly complex policy challenges facing the global community, the contribution that sipa makes in educating future leaders to serve the global public interest is critical. i would like to thank professor ito for inviting me. he was one of my early mentors at graduate school and i have benefitted from his many insights ever since. this coming weekend i will be attending the annual meetings of the imf and the world bank. as you know, this is one of the biggest global forums for addressing issues related to the global economy and world financial market. the discussions will be especially pertinent this year given the complex and highly unpredictable state of the world that we face. former premier wen jiabao once described china ’ s growth performance as “ unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable ”. this seems like an apt description of the global economy at this juncture. unstable because the proliferation of popular discontent fueled by rising income inequality amidst ongoing international conflicts have greatly elevated geopolitical uncertainty. unbalanced because with anemic recovery of advanced economies, much of the growth in the global economy continues to be driven by emerging markets. in many cases, most prominently in china, this growth has been fueled by increasing leverage. uncoordinated because in a highly integrated world, monetary policy and financial regulatory policy generate substantial cross - border spillovers yet they are being conducted with almost exclusive focus on domestic mandates. and finally, unsustainable because a world in which up to a third of all government bonds in some advanced economies are held by their own central bank and over a third of all developed - country government bonds trade at negative nominal yields cannot be a viable long run equilibrium. this precarious state of affairs is, to a large extent, a reflection of key fundamental forces that have been at play for some time, with their impact now becoming increasingly self - evident. what i want to do today is to set out these underlying forces, draw out their implications for monetary policy, and offer some tentative suggestions of how central banks may respond. in doing so, i will focus from the perspective