now like to outline the outlook for the global economy and switzerland in more detail. i will then look at monetary and financial conditions and the snb ’ s monetary policy. in the first quarter, the growth of the global economy was weaker than expected, across the board. in many emerging markets, particularly china, economic activity lost strength. in the euro area, the recession continued, and in the us, the recovery remained hesitant. the only advanced economy to gain significant momentum was japan. however, in the quarters ahead, global growth is likely to firm up gradually. in the us, the recovery will be supported by the labour market and rising asset prices. in japan, the very expansionary economic policy is having an invigorating effect. due to the upturn in world trade and the improvement in financing conditions, the euro area is also likely to emerge gradually from recession. in addition, the burden imposed by budget consolidation will be lower next year. overall, however, the outlook remains uncertain. the risk of a deterioration in the global economy continues to be high. as before, the biggest risk remains a renewed deterioration in the euro area financial and sovereign debt crisis. even though our baseline scenario bis central bankers ’ speeches assumes a gradual solution of the crisis, it is possible that tensions could re - emerge on financial markets at any time. swiss economic outlook in switzerland, the economy experienced a temporary revival in the first quarter, as expected, and real gdp rose by 2. 3 %, in annualised terms. thus, we experienced more favourable growth than our neighbouring countries. the difference is primarily attributable to domestic demand. once again, growth was mainly driven by private consumption and investment in residential construction. these demand components benefited from the relatively robust labour market, a continued strong inflow of immigrants and the favourable financing conditions. in particular, the supply of credit in switzerland is currently having a much stronger effect on the real economy than in most european countries. in the case of exports, however, there are no indications of a lasting revival. since the beginning of 2011, real exports have been moving sideways. they are being held back not only by the high value of the swiss franc, but also by the subdued momentum in world trade. moreover, investment by swiss companies is hesitant. one reason for this is uncertainty about further developments in the global economy. however, further factors dampening investment activity are pressure on profit margins and the continued overcapacity in parts of the manufacturing industry.

news conference 15 december 2022, 10. 00 am introductory remarks by thomas jordan ladies and gentlemen it is my pleasure to welcome you to the news conference of the swiss national bank. i would also like to welcome all those who are joining us today online. after our introductory remarks, the members of the governing board will take questions from journalists as usual. monetary policy decision i will begin with our monetary policy decision. we have decided to tighten our monetary policy further and to raise the snb policy rate by 0. 5 percentage points to 1. 0 %. in doing so, we are countering increased inflationary pressure and a further spread of inflation. it cannot be ruled out that additional rises in the snb policy rate will be necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term. to provide appropriate monetary conditions, we are also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. the snb policy rate change applies from tomorrow, 16 december 2022. banks ’ sight deposits held at the snb will be remunerated at the snb policy rate of 1. 0 % up to a certain threshold. sight deposits above this threshold will be remunerated at an interest rate of 0. 5 %, and thus still at a discount of 0. 5 percentage points relative to the snb policy rate. with this tiered remuneration of sight deposits and open market operations, we are ensuring that the secured short - term swiss franc money market rates are close to the snb policy rate. andrea maechler will examine the implementation of our monetary policy in more detail later. inflation forecast i would now like to address the development of inflation. inflation has declined somewhat in recent months, and stood at 3. 0 % in november. this decrease was above all attributable to page 1 / 4 berne, 15 december 2022 thomas jordan news conference smaller price increases for oil products. however, inflation is still clearly above the range we equate with price stability, and is likely to remain elevated for the time being. our new conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the snb policy rate is 1. 0 % over the entire forecast horizon ( cf. chart 1 ). up to the beginning of 2023, the forecast is below that of september owing to the somewhat lower oil price. from mid - 2023 onwards, the new forecast is higher and stands at 2. 1 % at the end of the forecast horizon. that our new forecast is higher over