and now i take pleasure in presenting you, mr temmeyer, with your retirement certificate and you, mr muller, with the letter awarding you the position of new president of the regional office – and, as an expression of my gratitude, a bouquet for each of you. felbermayr, g., j. groschl and i. heiland ( 2022 ), complex europe : quantifying the cost of disintegration, journal of international economics, vol. 138, september 2022 and mayer, t., v. vicard and s. zignago ( 2019 ), the cost of non - europe, revisited, economic policy, vol. 34, april 2019. a study conducted on behalf of the european commission estimates that eu gdp is as much as 8 to 9 % higher thanks to the single market ; see in't veld, j. ( 2019 ), quantifying the economic effects of the single market in a structural macromodel, european commission, discussion paper 094, february 2019. 6 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches 2 cambridge econometrics ( 2024 ), london's economy after brexit : impact and implications. 3 deutsche bundesbank ( 2023 ), the impact of digitalisation on labour productivity growth, monthly report, march 2023. 4 deutsche bundesbank ( 2024 ), dynamism in the german corporate sector down overall in last two decades, monthly report, march 2024. 5 see studie zum grundungsstandort sachsen ( 2022 ), pp. 76 f. 6 see studie zum grundungsstandort sachsen ( 2022 ), pp. 48 f. 7 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches

financial stability implications of the current geopolitical situation cepr paris symposium : panel on systemic risk : where is the next financial crisis coming from? 02. 06. 2022 | paris | claudia buch thank you very much for inviting me to speak here at the cepr ( center for economic and policy research ) symposium and particularly on this panel in honour of richard portes. richard ’ s work has been tremendously important for the economics profession in europe. the centre for economic policy research has been a central hub for innovative research and constructive policy discussions ever since its foundation in 1983. i remember very well the many bundesbank conferences – particularly at our conference centre in eltville – that richard attended. his contributions to the debates were always extremely insightful, based on excellent research of his own and his network, but they also highlighted the political constraints and relevant issues surrounding real - world policy decisions. and, like others on this panel, i have learned a great deal from richard during our work for the european systemic risk board. so : thank you very much richard for all that you have done for our profession, for bringing expert minds together, and for improving research and evidence - based policy - making in europe. we look forward to working with you in the same spirit in the future. more than ever, we need both – good research on society ’ s most pressing issues and evidence - based policymaking. today ’ s panel is about the origins of the next financial crisis. clearly, our job would be much easier if we had an answer to this question. if we knew what risks were highly likely to materialise, we would simply concentrate on monitoring those risks, mitigate the associated vulnerabilities within the financial system, and ensure that the system is sufficiently resilient. at the current juncture, however, assigning probabilities to specific risk scenarios and quantifying their impacts is hardly feasible. the international monetary fund ’ s recent world economic outlook gives a long list of risks to the economic outlook, and many of these risks are highly correlated. today, i would like to make three points : first, the global financial system has weathered the storms of the pandemic quite well. risks in the financial system were contained especially due to the massive public policy support that protected the real economy. also, the banking system has been more resilient thanks to the global financial sector reforms of the past decade. second, precisely because the financial system has performed well during the