- by - period optimisation of short - term gains in terms of output stabilisation or, more generally, on political opportunism. if we are to reach consistent decisions, we must make sure that all available information is used systematically. this is especially important during prolonged periods of largerthan - usual forecast errors. in such situations, additional data and information can help assess the likelihood that the forecast errors are not just due to unpredictable shocks, but to underlying structural changes in the economy. 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the snb is currently investing in such alternative data and information. this helps us to improve our understanding of inflationary pressures and assess the possibility of a change in the underlying inflation regime. for example, we are monitoring disaggregated cpi data more closely. we are also experimenting with machine - learning models that are trained using a large set of economic and alternative indicators. furthermore, we collect additional data from our network of regional representatives who conduct one - on - one discussions about the current economic situation in switzerland with around 250 company managers throughout the country every quarter. the statistics gathered from these talks – for example on firms'inflation expectations, but also on other evidence, such as changes in companies'price - setting behaviour – can be useful in assessing regime changes before they show up in the official statistics. systematically collecting and evaluating as much information as possible is crucial. however, in a situation of exceptionally high uncertainty, a key challenge for policymakers is to find the right balance between waiting for additional information and not falling behind the curve. this brings me to the third principle for decision - making : determination. determination the literature provides arguments for both a wait - and - see approach and more aggressive policies, depending, for example, on whether the uncertainty is related to measurement, the effectiveness of policies, or unforeseen developments. in practice, in an environment such as the one we face today, mixed signals on the persistence of inflation might tempt policymakers to postpone further reaction to inflationary pressures until uncertainty about future inflation has receded. yet uncertainty must not mean indecision. a risk management approach to policymaking sometimes calls for decisive action. at times, the optimal policy decisions may be those that provide insurance against particularly bad, though very unlikely, events. the snb's tightening of its monetary policy over the past year should be seen in this context. towards the end of 2021, at a time when the inflation outlook was still

relatively benign, we began to tolerate a certain nominal appreciation of the swiss franc. in june this year, we raised the snb policy rate by half a percentage point, and in september by another 0. 75 percentage points. this was done in order to counter the risk of a further build - up of inflationary pressures and to bring inflation back within the range of 0 % to 2 % that we equate with price stability. we do not aim to fine - tune inflation within this range. however, when faced with large shocks that increase the risk of persistent movements of inflation away from the range, determined action is necessary, irrespective of whether these movements are below or above the range. determined action today is consistent with our resolute response to deflationary pressures in the past. finally, i would like to conclude my remarks with a comment about the importance of humility. conclusion 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the snb decides its policy using an approach that is simultaneously pragmatic, consistent and determined. this allows us to fulfil our commitment to price stability in the face of economic shocks in a manner that is both flexible and resolute. in and of itself, such an approach provides no guarantee of success. from time to time, we miscalculate and misjudge the situation. it is therefore important that we remain humble and open - minded when reaching our decisions. in order to improve our understanding of a continuously changing economy, we draw on work from researchers both inside and outside the snb. i am very pleased to note that the academic part of our conference offers a wide range of contributions on many of the issues i have mentioned. i look forward to interesting discussions and an open exchange of views. it is now my pleasure to give the floor to andrea, who will chair the first panel. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches