incidentally, we will have the opportunity to hear one of these researchers tomorrow. the current crisis could even lead to a more significant increase in economic inequality than its predecessors, as it is more pervasive and profound than previous crises. unfortunately, ukraine is all too familiar with many of these problems we expect that unemployment in ukraine will peak at 11. 5 % in q2 2020 due to the corona crisis, compared to 8. 2 % last year. as the gradual easing of quarantine measures that has started in may continues and the economy recovers, unemployment will also decline in h2 2020, but will remain higher than last year. the job losses that hit ukrainians as businesses closed down have not only complicated job search efforts by increasing the workload per vacancy, but also have shown that there will be no easy solution to the labor migration problem in ukraine. some ukrainians working abroad did not even return home for the quarantine, as they in particular feared the prospect of becoming jobless in ukraine. they chose remaining abroad and being temporarily unemployed over coming home and struggling to find any work at all after the lockdown is lifted. and those who did return are now forced to compete against “ local ” laid - off workers for jobs that rarely pay as much as these migrants earned in other countries. for this reason, migrant workers have been leaving ukraine again in search of better pay since quarantine restrictions were partially relaxed. demand for ukrainian workers in poland, for example, has not disappeared. however, most of the problems in the ukrainian labor market are not related to covid - 19. first, one of the systemic problems of the ukrainian economy has for years been the mismatch between job seeker skills and employer requirements. late last year, a third of companies cited labor shortages as being one of the key factors limiting production, according to business surveys. this partially explains why unemployment in 2019 was quite high despite significant demand for labor from businesses. not the least role in this is played by the fact that the ukrainian education system does not keep 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches up with the changes in the modern labor market, which are taking place under pressure of globalization and technological progress. as a result, according to the state statistics service, in ukraine about a third of employees with higher education worked in a profession that does not require such. this is one of the highest rates in europe. • second, low productivity. despite having grown over the past 15 years, productivity is

still low. ukraine is below the top one hundred countries in an ilo ranking of countries by productivity. in 2019, labor productivity in ukraine was lower not only compared to eu member states, but also relative to several former soviet countries. • third, population decline and aging. ukraine ranks 12th in the world in terms of population decline, according to world bank data. overall, ukraine has 11 pensioners per 10 employees. as a result, the pension fund needs constant additional contributions from the state budget. this diverts public funds from being spent on investment and education, and weighs on potential gdp growth. the high workload on employed individuals further increases the already elevated levels of informal employment. in 2019, one in five workers in ukraine was employed informally. according to the ilo forecast, by 2024, the burden on the working population by dependent people will increase compared to 2019 even more – by 6 %. • fourth, labor migration, as i have mentioned already. there are no exact data on the number of ukrainians working abroad. however, according to various estimates, it is about 3 million people. some of them are seasonal workers. last year, an average of approximately 2. 5 million of our citizens were abroad at a given point in time, according to nbu estimates. for us, this presents a double challenge. not only does labor migration affect the quantity and quality of labor resources and labor productivity in ukraine, but also it makes our economy heavily dependent on remittances. ukraine ranks 12th globally in terms of total incoming remittances and is in the top 15 countries by the remittances to gdp ratio ( not counting island states ). • fifth, low labor force participation. in particular, the labor force participation of women in ukraine is insufficient compared to europe. while the labor force participation of men in the population aged 15 and older is 65 %, that of women is 49 %. this is due to difficulties with accessing childcare services, and the low availability of part - time employment. in its turn, low labor force participation puts a drag on potential gdp growth. how can monetary policy help in such cases? a dual mandate whereby a central bank pursues both price stability and full employment is not particularly commonplace in today ’ s world. the reserve bank of australia and the u. s. federal reserve have pursued dual mandates since post - war times, as has the reserve bank of new zealand since a year ago. however, making monetary policy decisions