assumed that the next season will also be below average. chart 7 revisions of euro area gdp growth projections for 2023 chart 8 global mineral fertiliser prices ( in % ) ( end - of - quarter, in usd per tonne ) 2. 5 1, 000 previous projection new projection 2. 1 2. 0 1. 4 1. 5 ( index, 2010 = 100 ) tsp urea potassium chloride price of fertilisers ( rhs ) 1. 2 0. 9 1. 0 0. 5 0. 5 0. 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0. 0 imf ecb source : consensus forecasts. consensus forecasts source : world bank. the materialisation of these risks, which we underlined in our previous reports, reflects on our projections of key macroeconomic indicators for serbia, which are now closer to the alternative scenario from the august projection. in the remainder of the conference, we will present our latest projections and the underlying assumptions. * * * in the third quarter, inflation in serbia moved in line with our expectations presented in august. almost two - thirds of the contribution to y - o - y inflation continues to come from elevated food and energy prices. however, in our august projection we expected inflation to peak in september this year. still, due to the surge in global energy prices in the past months and their continued spillover to imported inflation, together with the effects of the drought at home and in most of europe, domestic inflation continued to climb past our expectations to 15. 0 % y - o - y in october, reflecting the materialisation of the abovementioned risks. all central banks, including the nbs, base their projections on similar assumptions of movement in the global prices of energy and other primary commodities, relying on the assessments of relevant international institutions and the movement in market futures for the coming period. since it is precisely the global prices of energy and primary commodities that departed significantly up from what international institutions and futures expected under the impact of several intertwined shocks during last and this year, inflation in all countries proved to be stronger and more durable than anticipated. one of our text boxes from the november inflation report deals with this matter and suggests that the above factors have resulted in similar departures of inflation outturns from inflation projections of other inflation - targeting central banks in the region, as well as the european central bank. elevated imported inflation has also fuelled a rise in core inflation, i

0 2. 5 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 3 6 3 6 source : nbs. 3 6 3 6 0. 0 1'20 4'20 7'20 10'20 1'21 4'21 7'21 10'21 1'22 4'22 7'22 10'22 source : nbs. our decision to continue tightening monetary conditions at home was due to lingering global cost - push pressures and the persistent rise in imported inflation. we have been tightening monetary conditions continually but gradually since october last year, taking into account the fact that inflation in serbia is mostly determined by costpush pressures from the international environment, which are entirely or for the most part beyond the influence of the nbs ’ s monetary policy measures. since april this year, we raised the key policy rate by 350 basis points to 4. 5 %. interest rates on deposit and lending facilities were increased likewise to 3. 5 % and 5. 5 %, respectively. by raising its interest rates further, the nbs is seeking to contain the second - round effects of rising global food and energy prices on other prices in the domestic market through inflation expectations, as well as to ensure that inflation strikes a downward path and retreats within the bounds of the tolerance band until the end of the projection horizon. chart 12 dinar exchange rate and nbs transactions in the fx market ( eur / rsd ) * * chart 13 interest rates on new loans ( weighted average values, p. a., in % ) ( in eur mn ) nbs transactions in the fx market, monthly ( rhs ) * eur / rsd, monthly average ( lhs ) * * - 150 - 300 - 450 - 600 - 750 - 900 - 1, 050 - 1, 200 source : nbs. * + net purchase ; - net sale. * * eur 1 in rsd. dinar household loans * dinar corporate loans * key policy rate household loans in euro terms * corporate loans in euro terms * euribor 3m - 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 source : nbs and european banking federation. * excluding revolving loans, current account overdrafts and credit card debt. the nbs ’ s monetary policy tightening has spilled over to interest rates in the markets of money, loans and savings, confirming the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the interest rate channel. the normalisation of the