##2, and then begin to decline to 5. 2 % in 2023 and 3. 8 % in 2024. on a quarterly basis, global inflation is forecasted to graph 1. a. prospects of inflation in developed countries peak at 10, 0 % in the third quarter of 2022 before declining to 5. 2 % in the fourth quarter of 2023. the highest increase in inflation is in developed countries, from 5. 2 % in 2021 to 7. 2 % in 2022 before declining to 3. 2 % in 2023 with a more aggressive response to monetary tightening and forecasts for a decline in energy and food prices ( graph 1. a ). inflation in the us and the euro area is expected to rise to the highest of 7. 0 % and 8. 8 % in 2022. for emerging market and developing economies ( emdes ), inflation is expected to rise from 7. 3 % in 2021 to 10. 6 % in 2022, before falling to 6. 5 % in 2023 ( graph 1. b ). the rise in inflation in 2022 differs from country to country, with lower increases in asia than in latin america. after that, starting in mid - 2023, inflation will decrease in china, india, the asean - 5 region, and latin america. overall, the impact of political - economic fragmentation on inflation in emdes was not as high as in aes, except in latin america. the inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the russia - ukraine political tensions and the us - china trade war will not be prolonged, so that inflationary pressures from high world energy and food prices will ease at the end of 2023 before returning to a low and stable level in 2024 as predicted above. the high interest rate policy is predicted to be maintained for a longer period ( “ higher for longer ” ) graph 1. b. prospects of inflation in eme countries %, yoy %, yoy i ii iii us euro area source : consensus economics iv i ii iii japan england iv i ii australia canada i ii iii iv i ii iii china india thailand philippines malaysia vietnam source : consensus economics iv graph 2. a. fed funds rate ( ffr ) forecast % 5. 25 % the fed : implied rate ( fed funds future ) ecb : implied rate ( overnight index swaps ) 3. 25 current implied rate : 3. 86 current implied rate : 1. 4 3. 00 5. 00 4. 71 4

indonesia ( kki ) event, which encourages msme to go export and go digital, continues to be improved, as well as synergy with the goverment in the successful gernas bbi and bangga berwisata # diindonesiaaja ( bwi ) movement involving all 46 bank indonesia representative offices. meanwhile, msme access to financing is facilitated to support compliance with inclusive financing regulations, among others through mapping the trends of msme financing via multiple e - commerce channels and partnerships, as well as facilitating business matching. bank indonesia will also support the green msme campaign, beginning with studies and pilot projects to hone existing practices. bank indonesia continues to support the growing role of the sharia economy and finance as a new source of economic growth. implementation of a halal value chain ecosystem, both locally and internationally, is being expanded in terms of the participants, institutions and supporting infrastructure. halal value chain ecosystem development will continue to prioritize the leading sectors of halal food and modest fashion. in terms of sharia finance, sharia money market deepening is pursued through, among others, development of foreign exchange transaction instruments and the inclusive bi sukuk. support to increase the optimization of sharia social finance as an alternative source of financing for the major sectors of the sharia economy continues to be encouraged, especially through productive waqf. in addition, business linkages through a series of sharia economic festival ( fesyar ) events in three regions ( java, sumatra, eastern indonesia ) and the international indonesia sharia economic festival ( isef ) event will continue to be facilitated. the center of excellence for the sharia economy and finance is also being improved continuously through higher education as an important part of implementing strategies for increasing public literacy. to that end, bank indonesia continues to strengthen synergy with various parties, both within the national sharia economy and finance committee ( kneks ) as well as with islamic boarding schools ( pesantren ), the sharia economic community ( mes ), business associations, banks, as well as scholars, academics and the wider community. bank indonesia strengthen policy synergy with the government to support a sustainable economy characterized by a stable, inclusive, and green financial system. in response to the future challenges associated with climate change, which could threaten economic stability, and as bank indonesia ’ s active contribution in achieving the low - carbon target, bank indonesia carry out a comprehensive transformation by strengthening green finance policies