although the story on this front is mostly reassuring, it warrants monitoring. projections from the survey of professional forecasters suggest that longer - run inflation expectations – which appear to be most relevant for predicting future inflation – have remained at 2 percent since the end of 2012. household surveys, such as university of michigan surveys of consumers, suggest that households ’ longer - run inflation expectations have remained in a narrow range throughout the crisis and the recovery, although they have stayed in the lower end of that range over the past year. in contrast, market - based measures of inflation compensation, such as inflation swaps and the difference between nominal and inflation - indexed treasury bond yields, have declined noticeably over the past year and a half at longer - term horizons. of course, factors other than inflation expectations, such as changes in liquidity premiums and inflation risk premiums, may be at play. although the balance of evidence thus suggests that long - term inflation expectations are likely to have remained fairly steady, the risks to the near - term outlook for inflation appear to be tilted to the downside, given the persistently low level of core inflation and the recent decline in longer - run inflation compensation, as well as the deflationary cross currents emanating from abroad – a subject to which i now turn. over the past 15 months, u. s. monetary policy deliberations have been taking place against a backdrop of progressively gloomier projections of global demand. the international monetary fund ( imf ) has marked down 2015 emerging market and world growth repeatedly since april 2014. in the second half of 2014, persistently weak aggregate demand in japan and the euro area led to heightened deflationary pressures. the policy response to these pressures and the anticipated divergence between the policy trajectory in these economies and the united states contributed to a 10 percent appreciation in the dollar in inflation - adjusted terms through the spring of this year, pushing down net exports and restraining activity in the united states. net exports subtracted nearly 1 percentage point from the annual rate of u. s. bis central bankers ’ speeches gross domestic product ( gdp ) growth in the first part of the year, and the most recent trade data suggest another substantial subtraction in the third quarter. more recently, weakness in foreign demand has extended to emerging market economies, which now account for about half of world output and have been an important source of growth for more than the past decade. growing recognition of this weakness pushed the dollar up further to 15 percent above its

levers that can make a difference by encouraging solutions that are tailored to local needs and circumstances. it does this by encouraging banks to provide affordable and sustainable mortgage products to qualified low - and moderate - income families. this helps those families have a chance to purchase homes sustainably and build equity. in addition, by encouraging banks to work with the community to identify tailored rental and homeownership investment opportunities, the cra helps encourage the construction of affordable housing where it is needed most. see, for example, the center for neighborhood technology ’ s housing and transportation ( h + t ) affordability index at https : / / htaindex. cnt. org / about /. the path forward in our effort to refresh the cra regulations, we will continue to honor the purpose of the cra by encouraging banks to engage in local community and economic development initiatives. i am confident that there are ways to update the areas where we evaluate a bank ’ s cra performance without losing the core focus on place. we should do more to encourage banks to offer deposit and credit products designed to help rent - burdened customers save for homeownership and build strong credit scores that will enable them to succeed in obtaining mortgage credit on favorable terms. we should do more to encourage banks to lend to the underserved entrepreneurs and small businesses that hold the promise of providing jobs and growing local economies. even as the economy looks strong overall, significant challenges remain for low - and moderate - income areas, making the cra and its focus on local credit needs more important than ever. i look forward to hearing from you over the next several months to help inform our interagency effort to refresh the cra regulations. this conference is an opportunity for anhd members to envision the future for new york ’ s neighborhoods and discuss critical actions to achieve that vision. i know you have a full agenda today, replete with pressing conversations on the compelling challenges that face your neighborhoods. i want to applaud your work to ensure that all of new york ’ s neighborhoods are communities of opportunity. thank you.