the board ’ s website at www. federalreserve. gov / events / conferences / 2011 / rsr / default. htm. see paul calem, francisco covas, and jason wu ( 2011 ), “ the impact of a liquidity shock on bank lending : the case of the 2007 collapse of the private - label rmbs market ( pdf ), ” august 15 ; and andrew cohen ( 2011 ), “ rating shopping in the cmbs market ( pdf ), ” september. see viral acharya ( 2011 ), “ governments as shadow banks : the looming threat to financial stability ( pdf ), ” september ; franklin allen and elena carletti ( 2011 ), “ systemic risk from real estate and macro - prudential regulation ( pdf ), ” august 22 ; xavier freixas and jean - charles rochet ( 2011 ), “ taming sifis, ” september 7 ; and joon - ho hahm, hyun song shin, and kwanho shin ( 2011 ), “ non - core bank liabilities and financial vulnerability ( pdf ), ” august 27. for papers related to capital requirements, see ian christensen, cesaire meh, and kevin moran ( 2011 ), “ leverage regulation and macroeconomic dynamics ( pdf ), ” august 18 ; and enrico perotti, lev ratnovski, and razvan vlahu ( 2011 ), “ capital regulation and tail risk ( pdf ), ” july. for a paper related to risk retention rules for securitization, see john kiff and michael kisser ( 2011 ), “ a shot at regulating securitization ( pdf ), ” september 9. bis central bankers ’ speeches

##down be an artifact of antiquated measurement? third, how tight is the labor market? given our mandate of maximum employment and price stability, this question is at the very core of our work. but answering it in real time in a dynamic economy as jobs are gained in one area but lost in others is remarkably challenging. in august, the bureau of labor statistics ( bls ) announced that job gains over the year through march were likely a half - million lower than previously reported. i will discuss how we are using big data to improve our grasp of the job market in the face of such revisions. these three quite varied questions highlight the broad range of issues that currently come under the simple heading “ data dependent. ” after exploring them, i will comment briefly on recent developments in money markets and on monetary policy. a century of industrial production our story of data dependence in the face of change begins when the fed opened for business in 1914. world war i was breaking out in europe, and over the next four years the war would fuel profound growth and transformation in the u. s. economy. 1 but you could not have seen this change in the gross national product data ; the department of commerce did not publish those until 1942. the census bureau had been running a hugh rockoff ( 2004 ) analyzes the change that accompanied a 44 - month expansion starting in 1914. - 3census of manufactures since 1905, but that came only every five years — an eternity in the rapidly changing economy. in need of more timely information, the fed began creating and publishing a series of industrial output reports that soon evolved into industrial production indexes. 2 the indexes initially comprised 22 basic commodities, chosen in part because they covered the major industrial groups, but also for the practical reason that data were available with less than a one - month lag. the fed ’ s efforts were among the earliest in creating timely measures of aggregate production. over the century of its existence, our industrial production team has remained at the frontier of economic measurement, using the most advanced techniques to monitor u. s. industry and nimbly track changes in production. what are the consequences of an oil price spike? let ’ s turn now to the first question of the consequences of an oil price spike. figure 1 shows u. s. oil production since 1920. after rising fairly steadily through the early 1970s, production began a long period of gradual decline. by 2005, production was at about the same level as it had been 50 years