633 - 36. new york : macmillan press. - - - - - -. 1991. the golden age of the quantity theory. princeton : princeton university press. - - - - - -. 2000. " highlights of the bullionist controversy. " department of economics research report, university of western ontario, no. 2000 - 2. https : / / economics. uwo. ca / people / laidler _ docs / highlightsof. pdf. murphy, antoin e. 2009. the genesis of macroeconomics : new ideas from sir william petty to henry thornton. new york : oxford university press. okun, arthur m. 1973. " upward mobility in a high - pressure economy. " brookings papers on economic activity, no. 1, pp. 207 - 61. https : / / www. brookings. edu / wpcontent / uploads / 1973 / 01 / 1973a _ bpea _ okun _ fellner _ greenspan. pdf. palma, nuno. 2022. " the real effects of monetary expansions : evidence from a large - scale historical experiment. " the review of economic studies 89 ( 3 ) : pp. 1593 - 627. pozsar, zoltan. 2022. " war and interest rates. " credit suisse economics, august 1, 2022. https : / / advisoranalyst. com / wp - content / uploads / 2022 / 08 / zoltan - pozsar - aug - 2 - warand - interest - rates - 1. pdf. robinson, marc. 2020. bigger government : the future of government expenditure in advanced economies. arolla press. rogoff, kenneth s. 2022a. " institutional innovation and central bank independence 2. 0. " imes discussion paper series, no. 2022 - e - 9. https : / / www. imes. boj. or. jp / research / papers / english / 22 - e - 09. pdf. - - - - - -. 2022b. " the age of inflation : easy money, hard choices. " foreign affairs 101, no. 6 ( november / december 2022 ). rogoff, kenneth s., barbara rossi, and paul schmelzing. 2022. " long - run trends in longmaturity real rates 1311 - 2021. " nber working paper, no.

bank for price and financial system stability a. marshall long - term late 19th century prolonged deflation i. fisher deflation ( 1873 - 1896 ) k. wicksell ・ evolution of the quantity theory of money 1929 - 1930s great by country depression * differs and region great inflation extreme deflation i. fisher j. m. keynes ・ harms of deflation ・ principle of effective demand high inflation m. friedman r. e. lucas jr. t. j. sargent ・ reconfirmed role of money and expectations 1970s * differs by country and region chart 8 iii. looking ahead : lessons from history historical downtrend in global real interest rate 7 - year moving average, % - 5 - 10 cy1317 note : figures are calculated based on gdp - weighted nominal interest rates and inflation rates using available data for eight countries : italy, the netherlands, france, spain, the united kingdom, germany, the united states, and japan. source : schmelzing, p., " eight centuries of global real interest rates, r - g, and the'suprasecular'decline, 1311 - 2018, " bank of england staff working paper, no. 845 ( 2020 ). chart 9 iii. looking ahead : lessons from history discussions over the monetary policy targets overseas proposals description higher inflation target … raise the target [ from 2 percent ] to, say, 3 or 4 percent ( bernanke, 2017 ) average inflation targeting … targeting average inflation over a multiyear period ( clarida, 2019 ) price - level targeting … [ targeting ] the level of prices on a steady growth path, rising by ( say ) 2 percent per year ( bernanke, 2017 ) temporary price - level targeting … apply a price - level target … only to periods around zlb episodes, retaining … the current 2 percent [ inflation ] target at other times ( bernanke, 2017 ) inflation target range … [ setting a ] goal within that range …, perhaps year by year, depending on specific economic circumstances ( rosengren, 2018 ) nominal gdp targeting … targeting the growth rate or the level of nominal gdp ( svensson, 2019 ) sources : bernanke, b. s., " temporary price - level targeting : an alternative framework for monetary policy, " the brookings institution, october 12, 2017, https : / / www. brookings. edu / blog / ben - bernanke / 2017 / 10 / 12 / temporary - price - level -