work that entail high contact and pose greater risks of exposure to infection. see steven brown ( 2020 ), “ how covid - 19 is affecting black and latino families ’ employment and financial well - being, ” urban institute, urban wire : race and ethnicity ( blog ), may 6, https : / / www. urban. org / urban - wire / how - covid - 19 - affecting - black - and - latinofamilies - employment - and - financial - well - being. despite this, cortes and forsythe find that the larger increases in job losses suffered by individuals from disadvantaged groups, such as hispanics, younger workers, those with lower levels of education, and women, can be explained only in part by occupation and industry affiliation ; see guido matias cortes and eliza c. forsythe ( 2020 ), “ the heterogeneous labor market impacts of the covid - 19 pandemic, ” upjohn institute working paper series 20 - 327 ( kalamazoo, mich. : w. e. upjohn institute for employment research, may ), https : / / research. upjohn. org / cgi / viewcontent. cgi? article = 1346 & context = up _ workingpapers. - 6decline in participation and boosting the productive capacity of the economy. 8 persistent spells out of employment risk harming not only the prospects of these individuals, but also the economy ’ s potential growth rate. regarding the other side of our dual mandate, the 12 - month change in total personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) prices picked up from 0. 5 percent in april to 1. 4 percent in august. over the same period, core pce price inflation picked up from 0. 9 percent to 1. 6 percent, supported lately by increases in prices of durable goods, including those for used cars and household appliances. 9 while inflation may temporarily rise to or above 2 percent on a 12 - month basis next year when the march and april price readings fall out of the 12 - month calculation, my baseline forecast for inflation over the medium term is for it to remain short of 2 percent over the next few years. support for a broad - based and inclusive recovery recent research indicates that the coronavirus aid, relief, and economic security ( cares ) act played a significant role in supporting aggregate demand in the spring and summer. enhanced unemployment benefits offset the lost income of many lower - wage and services workers

holding back employment and spending, increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells, leading more businesses to shutter, and ultimately harming productive capacity. the recovery will be broader based, stronger, and faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy both provide continued support to the economy. while monetary policy has helped keep credit available and borrowing costs low, fiscal policy has replaced lost incomes among households experiencing layoffs and businesses and states and localities suffering temporary drops in revenue. monetary policy finally, let me turn to how the new statement on longer - run goals and monetary policy strategy will help monetary policy achieve its goals. the new statement on goals and strategy seeks to align monetary policy with key longer - run changes in the economy. 12 the combination of a low neutral interest rate, underlying trend inflation the new statement is available on the board ’ s website at https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / files / fomc _ longerrungoals. pdf. information about the review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications can also be found on the board ’ s website, at https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / review - of - monetary - policystrategy - tools - and - communications. htm. in addition, see lael brainard ( 2020 ), “ bringing the statement on longer - run goals and monetary policy strategy into alignment with longer - run changes in the economy, ” speech delivered at “ how the fed will respond to the covid - 19 recession in an era of low - 9below 2 percent, and the low responsiveness of inflation to resource slack embodied in a flat phillips curve reduces the amount we can cut rates to buffer the economy, weakens inflation expectations, and could lead to worse employment and inflation outcomes over time. consequently, it is important to strengthen our ability to achieve our employment and inflation goals by committing to a path of policy and lowering borrowing costs along the yield curve. the new statement on goals and strategy makes several key changes that should significantly improve the way the committee conducts monetary policy. it eliminates the previous reference to a numerical estimate of the longer - run normal unemployment rate and instead defines the statutory maximum level of employment as a broad - based and inclusive goal. it commits that the committee will aim to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rather than the previous reference to deviations, which could be in either direction. by eliminating the rationale for removing