andriy pyshnyy : national bank of ukraine press briefing - monetary policy decisions speech by mr andriy pyshnyy, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at a press briefing on monetary policy decisions, kyiv, 27 april 2023. * * * dear colleagues, the board of the national bank of ukraine has decided to keep its key policy rate at 25 % per annum. this will support the effects of previous measures to improve attractiveness of hryvnia assets, help maintain sustainability of the fx market, and form proper conditions for the continuation of steady disinflation trend and for easing fx restrictions. from the start of the year, inflation has been declining faster than expected, including thanks to the nbu's measures to support exchange rate sustainability however, the impact of the war keeps the price pressure and production costs high a€ “ in particular, due to difficulties of running business and setting up logistics during the war. inflation will decelerate to 14. 8 % in 2023 and will return to a single - digit level in the next years inflation will decelerate this year thanks to a combined effect from lower global energy prices, restrained domestic demand, and the impact of the nbu's monetary policy. already this year, the economy will return to growth, which will accelerate in the coming years on the back of a decrease in security risks assumed by the forecast in view of the rapid recovery in the energy system and the loose fiscal policy, the nbu improved its economic growth forecast for 2023, from 0. 3 % to 2. 0 %. provided that the assumptions about the security situation materialize, no significant shortages of electricity are expected, except for some local and situational shortages that might occur in h2. at the same time, an increase in budgetary spending on the back of large volumes of international financial assistance will support economic activity and consumption. significant volumes of official financing, coupled with the further development of the domestic debt market, will prevent the need for monetary financing of the sizeable budget deficit. despite an increase in the government's tax revenues and domestic borrowing, these funds are not enough to finance the considerable expenditures of the state budget in wartime and during the post - war recovery. international assistance will remain an important source of financing to meet state budget needs. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches overall, inflows from international partners could exceed usd 42 billion this year. the inflows from

growing further amid significant budget expenditures, the key prerequisite for preserving exchange rate stability and sustaining the decrease in inflation is to make sure that hryvnia savings are attractive. to maintain exchange rate sustainability, improve expectations, and steadily reduce inflation, the nbu will continue to ensure the needed monetary conditions. keeping the key policy rate high will support the effects of the nbu's previous measures and leave room for further growth in the investment appeal of hryvnia savings. at the same time, the improved macroeconomic situation, including a deeper decline in inflation and the accumulation of a comfortable amount of international reserves, is creating prerequisites for revising the key policy rate forecast. the updated macro forecast envisages the launch of a cycle of key policy rate cuts in q4 2023. even if such a scenario materializes, monetary conditions will remain fairly tight over the forecast horizon as inflation continues to slow, inflation expectations improve, and real returns on hryvnia instruments remain high. the nbu stands ready to adjust the time and pace of changes in the key policy rate in view of fx market developments, inflationary dynamics, the sustainability of international support, and the effectiveness of measures to make hryvnia instruments attractive. our monetary policy decisions will continue to be consistent with our key goals of reducing inflation and maintaining exchange rate sustainability. thank you for your attention! 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches