' speeches the key risk to the forecast is that the war in ukraine will last longer. if materialized, this risk will delay economic recovery and the return of inflation to its target. what will the nbu's monetary policy stance be in future? according to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic forecast, the key policy rate will remain at 25 % at least until q2 2024. if risks materialize, the nbu is prepared to continue to act decisively, if this is required to safeguard economic stability and to ensure inflationary processes remain under control. if required, the nbu stands ready to take additional measures to protect international reserves, increase monetary transmission, rein in inflationary pressures, and to maintain economic stability in the country. today, the nbu took fx regulation decisions that will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery. starting from 9 am on 21 july 2022, the nbu set and fixed a new official uah / usd exchange rate of uah 36. 57 per usd 1. this step will improve the competitiveness of ukrainian producers, converge exchange rate conditions for various groups of businesses and households, while also supporting the resilience of the economy during the war. the nbu's decision to fix the hryvnia exchange rate at uah / usd 29. 25 from the first hours of the war helped ensure the stable functioning of the financial system. today, the fixed exchange rate remains the stabilizer of the economy. that said, the war has lasted for almost five months, during which the ukrainian and global economies have changed significantly. therefore, the official exchange rate of the hryvnia fixed on 24 february lost its relevance and gradually stopped being an anchor for expectations. with that in mind, the nbu has made a one - time correction in the hryvnia official exchange rate against the u. s. dollar and fixed it at a new level. the new exchange rate will become an anchor for the economy in a time of uncertainty. keeping the exchange rate fixed will enable the nbu to maintain control over inflation dynamics and to support the uninterrupted functioning of the financial system. this is a key precondition for the stable operation of the economy, which is vital in wartime. the nbu also took some additional measures to balance supply and demand on the fx market. first, the nbu allowed the banks to sell cashless fx to individuals with the purpose of depositing it for three calendar months or more,

andriy pyshnyy : introductory speech - workshop on monetary policy in emerging markets introductory speech by mr andriy pyshnyy, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at the nbu - eabcn workshop on monetary policy in emerging markets, kyiv, 15 december 2023. * * * dear colleagues, welcome to our traditional workshop on monetary policy in emerging markets. for the third time, we gather to discuss the main challenges for central banks and outline ways to overcome them in emerging markets. first and foremost, i would like to express my gratitude to the euro area business cycle network ( eabcn ) for their support in organizing this event. for the second consecutive year, we are organizing this workshop together, and i sincerely appreciate our productive collaboration. this year, we have placed a special emphasis on understanding the causes and consequences of the new wave of inflation worldwide. the one that shook the world during the post - pandemic recovery and gained particular momentum after the onset of the war in ukraine. almost every country in the world has felt the new wave of inflation, with emerging markets being the most affected. this is confirmed by the economic outlook presented by the imf in october. according to the imf, in 2022, inflation in developed countries averaged 7. 2 %, while in emerging markets, it was 10. 1 %. in some emerging markets, inflation exceeded 20 %. among these countries is ukraine, where we observed a substantial inflationary surge driven by the escalation of the war. the causes of inflationary processes, and even more importantly, the nature of risks for its escalation, can vary significantly across different countries. it seems that inflation has attacked the world from all sides, and in each country, it is targeting the'vulnerable'points in defense : from both demand and supply sides through uncertainty and turbulence in global energy and food markets through structural fragmentation in labor markets and changes in production and supply chains through potential debt crises and financial destabilization ultimately, through the security risks and active military conflicts. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches all of these factors have presented distinctive challenges for central banks, particularly given the constraints of our toolkit. in particular, these challenges stem from structural liquidity surpluses, escalating debt burden, dependence on the policies of developed nations, and the dynamics of international capital markets. economic theory and practical experience have demonstrated successful strategies in addressing inflation. nevertheless, today we