inflation of up to 0. 3 percentage point per annum over the period 2000 - 05. using similar methodologies, chen et al. ( 2007 ), and helbling t., f. jaumotte and m. sommer ( 2006 ), “ how has globalisation affected inflation?, ” imf world economic outlook, chapter 3 ( april ), report findings of a similar magnitude for other countries and regional groupings. however, for some caveats on these accounting methodologies see ball, l. ( 2006 ), “ has globalisation changed inflation? ” nber working paper no. 12687. see ecb ( 2007 ), monthly bulletin, december. important. reforms would help to enhance market efficiency and benefit european consumers in the form of lower prices. in order to allow consumers to profit from lower farmgate prices, adequate competition in the downstream sectors ( food processing, retail trade and catering ) and compliance with single market provisions are necessary. the successful conclusion of the doha round of world trade negotiations should also help to improve the functioning of global trade in general, and of agricultural markets in europe and worldwide in particular. turning to risks of inflationary pressures from emerging economies, currently, some limited inflationary pressures appear to be originating from nms ( chart 7 ). these recent import price increases primarily reflect the lagged impact of higher energy and raw materials prices which have pushed up the prices of virtually all euro area import suppliers. however, while the share of the nms economies in euro area imports is rather significant, at around 11 %, the relatively limited increases in their export prices – actual and expected – are unlikely to make them a significant source of imported inflation in the euro area. turning to china and india, a noteworthy feature of both countries is the significant upturn in inflationary pressures recently. in china, food prices have been by far the main contributor to this recent rise in cpi inflation, whereas non - food prices have remained remarkably stable. on the one hand, an upside risk is that, admittedly, higher domestic inflation could feed into wages and, eventually, export prices. on the other hand, ongoing and expected developments in domestic prices and costs in the nms as well as in china and india suggest that potential risks to inflation originating from these two regions are relatively contained. 24 nevertheless, economic development, robust wage increases and terms of trade deterioration in low - cost countries, as well as increasing sophistication, variety and technological content of exports

chain ). as shown in chart 6b, hicp subcomponents have also exhibited sizeable price differentials, in particular with three energy - related items displaying the highest increases over 1996 - 2006 ( between + 5. 5 % and + 7. 5 % ), while three ict - intensive internationally traded goods exhibit the lowest increases ( between - 5 % and - 14 % ) over the period. trade theory would suggest that enhanced trade between developed and developing countries places downward pressure on the relative returns to unskilled workers – whereby the relative real return to the factor used intensively in the production of a good whose relative price falls / rises should also fall / rise according to the stolper - samuelson proposition. however, real wage developments have remained similar across all skill groups in the euro area ; see further details in ecb ( 2008 ), “ globalisation, trade and the euro area macroeconomy, ” monthly bulletin, january. see, e. g. pula g. and f. skudelny ( 2007 ), “ the impact of rising imports from low - cost countries on euro area prices and labour markets : some preliminary findings, ” paper presented at ecb conference “ globalisation and the macroeconomy ”, july ; molnar m., n. pain and d. taglioni ( 2006 ), “ the internationalisation of production, international outsourcing and oecd labour markets, ” oecd economics department working papers 561. overall, numerous estimates suggest a small net dampening impact of globalisation on euro area inflation of 0 - 0. 3 percentage point per annum over the last 5 - 10 years when taking into account the net impact of disinflationary effects of increased trade openness in the manufacturing sector and strong commodity price increases. on the basis of several accounting methodologies, including aggregate and sectoral analysis, ecb research finds a direct dampening effect of import openness on euro area producer price inflation of 0. 1 - 1. 0 percentage point per annum for the manufacturing sector over the period 1996 to 2004. 21 likewise, aggregate data shows a dampening impact on euro area consumer price inflation of 0. 05 - 0. 2 percentage point per year on average. 22 the outlook : upside risks to inflation related to globalisation overall, while the empirical evidence would lend support to the idea of a favorable relative price shock associated with globalisation, there have been recently signals that the