gdp gap ( pf ) refers to gdp ’ s deviation from trend calculated with a production function. sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank bis central bankers ’ speeches 9. hours gap per cent hours gap ( hp ) hours gap - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 6 note. hours gap ( hp ) refers to the deviation of hours worked from trend calculated with a hodrick prescott filter. hours gap refers to the deviation of hours worked from the riksbank ’ s assessed trend for hours worked. sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank 10. gdp gap, september and in real time per cent september 2011 real time - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 8 note. september 2011 refers to the pf gap. real time refers to the hp gap except from october 2010 and onwards when the pf gap is used. sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank bis central bankers ’ speeches 11. capacity utilisation per cent, seasonally - adjusted data capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector mean, 1996 - 2008 source : statistics sweden 12. employment rate percentage of population aged 16 – 64 employment rate mean, 2000 - 2008 source : statistics sweden bis central bankers ’ speeches 13. ru indicator and gdp gap standard deviation and percentage gdp gap ( pf ) ru indicator - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 note. the ru indicator has been normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1. the reference period is 1996 – 2008. gdp gap according to production function ( pf ) approach. sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank 14. actual and long - term unemployment per cent of labour force aged 16 – 64 unemployment unemployment, forecast mean, 2000 - 2008 long - term unemployment note. forecast refers to ages 15 – 74 sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank bis central bankers ’ speeches 15. unemployment gap per cent - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 4 - 4 note. unemployment gap refers to the deviation between actual and long - term unemployment in figure 14. sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank 16. labour shortages percentage of companies, seasonally - adjusted data labour shortages mean, 1996 - 2008 source : national institute of economic research bis central bankers ’ speeches 17. beveridge curve per cent

it is assumed that the actual capital stock corresponds with the potential capital stock. the development of the capital stock in the period ahead has been based on the riksbank ’ s investment forecast. figure 6 shows the development of the number of hours worked and the potential level of these. the development of potential hours in the future is determined by demographic developments, the assumption that there will be a trend increase in labour force participation among older people and an assessment of the effects of economic policy. these assessments have led to the potential number of hours worked presently exceeding the indications of the hp trend. figure 7 shows gdp and two measures of potential gdp : the hp trend and the pf approach. the difference between potential gdp calculated with the hp trend and with the pf approach is not so large. the most important difference between the measures is the potential development of hours. in the pf approach, the development of potential hours is based on assessments with no hp trend element. figures 8 and 9 show the measures of resource utilisation based on gdp and potential gdp, in addition to hours worked and potential hours worked, that were the result of these calculations. they indicate that resource utilisation is largely normal this year. the gdp gap based on the hp filter is slightly higher than normal, while the gdp gap based on the pf approach is slightly lower than normal. the reason for the difference lies in the assessment of the potential number of hours worked. the hours gap based on the hp filter is slightly higher than normal, while the hours gap used in the pf approach is slightly lower than normal. difficulties in calculations, but reasonable view of present situation there are several problems with the method of calculating potential gdp i have just described. among others, these include the calculations of potential labour, capital stock and tfp. the difficulty of assessing potential gdp is also illustrated by the way that assessments of the gdp gap have changed over time. attention has been drawn to this, not least by sveriges riksbank, monetary policy update, september 2011. bis central bankers ’ speeches orphanides. 11 among other observations, he shows that the estimates of the gdp gap for the united states for a certain year, made by the international monetary fund ( imf ), have changed radically between the various dates of calculation, and draws the conclusion that gdp growth should be focused on as the basis for monetary policy, rather than the gdp gap. figure 10 presents estimates of the gdp gap in real time and in accordance with