. what will be the overall state of the economy? 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches this year economic growth will accelerate to 3. 5 %, up from 3. 3 % in 2019, and will reach around 4 % in the following years. the monetary policy easing will contribute to the faster economic growth. high private consumption and investment will remain the main economic growth drivers. at the same time, the contribution of net exports to gdp will remain negative on the back of the real sector ’ s considerable need for investment imports. real household income will grow at a fast pace, which will further narrow the wage gap with neighboring countries and thus make ukrainians more interested in working in ukraine rather than abroad. the 2020 – 2022 current account deficit will remain acceptable the deficit narrowed to 0. 7 % of gdp in 2019. an important factor behind the decrease in the deficit was the compensation received by naftogaz of ukraine from russian gazprom under a ruling of the stockholm arbitration court. however, apart from that, the current account deficit shrank due to the decreased trade deficit in goods, steady growth in services exports, and smaller amounts of repatriated dividends. the current account deficit will range from 3 % to 4 % in 2020 – 2022. in particular, the wider deficit will be caused by large volumes of investment imports and decreased proceeds from natural gas transit. however, this will be offset by greater capital inflows to the private sector amid an improvement in the investment climate. what does the implementation of the forecast depend on? further cooperation with the international monetary fund remains the basic assumption of the macroeconomic forecast. the nbu expects that a new cooperation program with the imf will be signed in the coming months, after the ukrainian parliament approves the required draft laws. the new cooperation program, official borrowing and nonresidents ’ sustained interest in domestic treasury bonds and bills will sustain the rise in international reserves every year, despite ukraine going through a period of peak external public debt payments. international reserves will exceed usd 29 billion in 2020, and will continue to rise in the coming years. in this light, the nbu believes any delay in entering into a new cooperation agreement with the imf to be the key risk to its forecasts. risks to macrofinancial stability also persist. these risks could mainly arise from ukrainian court rulings on the responsibility and liability of the former owners of insolvent banks to the state. if materialized, these risks could

% on refinancing loans. the interest rate on three - month certificates of deposit will continue to equal the key policy rate. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches on the one hand, taking into account improved inflation expectations and the inflation forecast, the current and projected decrease in interest rates on nbu operations will maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia savings. on the other hand, the cut in nbu interest rates will support economic recovery on the back of persisting macrofinancial stability. the nbu will continue to cut its key policy rate, provided the fx market remains stable and inflation declines over the forecast horizon. when easing fx restrictions and transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime, the nbu will take into account the need to maintain the high attractiveness of hryvnia assets. the nbu's revised macroeconomic forecast envisages further key policy rate cuts. the key policy rate will be cut gradually, and provided the conditions allow it, so as not to undermine the trend towards a steady decline in inflation or fx market stability. that said, the nbu is not compelled to stick to its key policy rate forecast. given high uncertainty, any further decisions and revisions of the nbu's key policy rate forecasts will largely depend on whether or not the forecast's assumptions materialize, as well as on the trends of key macroeconomic and financial indicators. thank you for your attention! 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches