. despite these positive signs, the rate of job loss remains high and the unemployment rate has continued its steep rise. job insecurity, together with declines in home values and tight credit, is likely to limit gains in consumer spending. the possibility that the recent stabilization in household spending will prove transient is an important downside risk to the outlook. in conjunction with the june fomc meeting, board members and reserve bank presidents prepared economic projections covering the years 2009 through 2011. fomc participants generally expect that, after declining in the first half of this year, output will increase slightly over the remainder of 2009. the recovery is expected to be gradual in 2010, with some acceleration in activity in 2011. although the unemployment rate is projected to peak at the end of this year, the projected declines in 2010 and 2011 would still leave unemployment well above fomc participants'views of the longer - run sustainable rate. all participants expect that inflation will be somewhat lower this year than in recent years, and most expect it to remain subdued over the next two years. policy challenges monetary policy in light of the substantial economic slack and limited inflation pressures, monetary policy remains focused on fostering economic recovery. accordingly, as i mentioned earlier, the fomc believes that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will be appropriate for an extended period. however, we also believe that it is important to assure the public and the markets that the extraordinary policy measures we have taken in response to the financial crisis and the recession can be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner as needed, thereby avoiding the risk that policy stimulus could lead to a future rise in inflation. 1 the fomc has been devoting considerable attention to issues relating to its exit strategy, and we are confident that we have the necessary tools to implement that strategy when appropriate. for further discussion of the federal reserve's " exit strategy " from its current policy stance, see " monetary policy as the economy recovers " in board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2009 ), monetary policy report to the congress ( washington : board of governors, july ), p. 34 - 7. to some extent, our policy measures will unwind automatically as the economy recovers and financial strains ease, because most of our extraordinary liquidity facilities are priced at a premium over normal interest rate spreads. indeed, total federal reserve credit extended to banks and other market participants has declined from roughly $ 1. 5 trillion at the end of 2008 to less

– and europe – to insignificance. but we can and must come together again, as we did in 1950 when facing the challenge of reconstruction, and in 1990 when page 10 sur 10 facing the challenge of reunification. if we can deal with the present challenge of strategic autonomy, we will have begun to answer kissinger's question. thank you for your attention. eurostat, flash estimate of headline inflation in november 2023 average of year - on - year inflation rates between january 1999 and october 2023 iii nagel, j., and villeroy de galhau, f., gedanken fur franzosisch - deutschen freundschaft, le couple francoallemand est necessaire, joint opinion piece, 13 november 2023 iv around 1 % per year between 1998 and 2019, against 0. 5 % for france v oecd, pisa ( programme for international student assessment ) 2022 results, 5 december 2023 vi european commission, europe ’ s digital decade : digital targets for 2030 vii oecd, population projections viii for example, for summarising, extracting and classifying data, or for generating computer code or text. ix bruegel, venture capital : a new breath of life for european entrepreneurs?, 10 february 2022 x villeroy de galhau, f., europe ’ s growth gap : reconciling keynes and schumpeter, high - level lecture at college of europe in bruges, 31 march 2021 xi imf, geoeconomic fragmentation : what ’ s at stake for the eu, 30 november 2023 xii gopinath, g., europe in a fragmented world, speech, 30 november 2023 xiii european commission, 2023 strategic foresight report, july 2023 xiv villeroy de galhau, f., and weidmann, j., towards a genuine capital markets union, 4 april 2019 xv nagel, j., and villeroy de galhau, f., fostering european unity : time for a genuine capital markets union, published in french in les echos and in german in handelsblatt on 14 november 2022 xvi lagarde, c., a kantian shift for the capital markets union, speech, 17 november 2023 xvii european commission, european economic forecast, autumn 2023 – statistical annex, november 2023 xviii for example, to finance the ngeu recovery programme and macro - financial