##kuda. he has eschewed controversial issues such as visits to the yasukuni shrine. he will endeavour to cultivate ties with china and india while staying steadfast with the us. nonetheless, there are several potential wildcards in the region. first, the road to denuclearising the korean peninsula remains long and difficult. second, cross - strait relations between taiwan and beijing are entering a critical phase. beijing is concerned that in the run - up to the taiwan presidential election in march next year, president chen shui bian may make one last throw of the dice which may compel china to act. how the us handles this issue will be crucial in maintaining stability across the strait. third, myanmar cannot return to the status quo ante after the government ’ s crackdown on monk - led protests. instability in myanmar can affect its immediate neighbours and hurt the reputation of asean. national reconciliation and an agreement on phased changes and power sharing is the only way to prevent another widespread protest, which may end up in a bloody uprising to bring about change. therefore, asean and singapore, and so too china and india, fully support the mission by the un secretary general ’ s special advisor, mr ibrahim gambari, to help the various parties in myanmar work towards genuine dialogue and compromise. however, this compromise is not so easy to achieve. myanmar ’ s military rulers, the many ethnic groups and the political players deeply distrust one another. the rulers are also highly suspicious of the outside world. this psyche of distrust was borne out of the violent and divisive history of myanmar after world war ii, its complex national make - up of many diverse ethnic groups and, until the recent agreements on ceasefire, the fighting with insurgents. there is no quick and easy solution. negotiations will be long and complicated. we will need to give mr gambari some time to start the process and make patient progress. asia ’ s rising share in world gdp however, myanmar and the other flashpoints i have mentioned are unlikely to derail asia ’ s growth. there is a sense of deja vu that this is asia ’ s century. the statistics speak for themselves. in 1980, asia accounted for just 19 % of global gdp in ppp terms. today, it is 36 %, almost doubled. by 2020, it is expected to reach 45 %. for many of you, figures on global wealth held by high net worth individuals in asia - pacific may be more interesting.

, is the global driving forces i mentioned earlier. but the relationship between wages and unemployment has not broken down. there are now signs in many countries that wage growth is rising on the back of a broadening upturn and a tightening labour market. chart 9 unemployment and wage growth. 1 ) selected advanced economies. percent norges bank economic perspectives 15 february 2018 wage growth ( l. h. s ) unemployment ( r. h. s. ) 1 ) belgium, denmark, finland, france, germany, ireland, italy, japan, netherlands, portugal, spain, south korea, sweden, switzerland, the uk and the us. unweighted average. sources : thomson reuters and norges bank expansionary monetary policy in many countries never before have global interest rates been as low as today over such a long period ( chart 10 ). the interest rate level was moving down long before the 2008 crisis. what lies behind this is a prolonged decline in long - term real interest rates owing to structural changes. low productivity growth and weaker labour force growth have diminished the growth capacity of advanced economies and dampened the willingness to invest. at the same time, groups and countries with a high saving rate account for a larger share of income growth, partly owing to demographic changes and wider income gaps. both lower investment and higher saving have contributed to depressing real long - term interest rates. chart 10 global real interest rates. yield on 10−year government bonds adjusted 1 ) for inflation. 14 oecd countries. percent – 1 – 1 1 ) austria, belgium, canada, denmark, france, germany, italy, japan, netherlands, norway, sweden, switzerland, the uk and the us. unweighted average. sources : thomson reuters and norges bank when the financial crisis engulfed the global economy in 2008, central banks responded forcefully. during the crisis, the european central bank, the bank of england and the federal reserve cut their policy rates by 4 to 5 percentage points. many central banks still found it difficult to provide a sufficiently accommodative monetary stance, and the room for further interest rate cuts was gradually exhausted. norges bank economic perspectives 15 february 2018 central banks were led into unknown territory and implemented unconventional measures. they have purchased securities on a large scale. in addition, a barrier has been breached. in the euro area, denmark, sweden, switzerland and japan, policy rates have been cut to below zero. monetary policy has been stretched far. the purpose of the large - scale asset