by the adequacy standard. ladies and gentlemen, esteemed colleagues until recently, hardly anyone could have imagined that the world would face the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the energy crisis and such heightened geopolitical tensions at almost the same time. at present, there are many great unknowns – the duration of the ukraine conflict and its possible long ‐ term consequences for global trade, as well as the prices and availability of energy, industrial raw materials and food. uncertainty also refers to the complexity of the functioning of global markets in the conditions of geopolitical tensions and global value chain disruptions, speed of normalisation of monetary policies of leading central banks and the effects on global financial conditions, etc. for the time being, we judge the risks to the projection of global and domestic growth to be tilted to the downside, and those to inflation – to the upside. as the economic policy makers, we are faced with multiple challenges. you may, however, rest assured that the government and the nbs will pursue a consistent and responsible economic policy and do everything to make sure our economy is strengthened further, just as we did after the pandemic broke out. in this way, we will increase our economy ’ s resilience further and stand ready to respond to all challenges coming from the international environment. going forward, we will continue to carefully monitor and evaluate factors from the domestic and international environment, which will determine our future decisions and steps. depending on geopolitical developments and the movement in key inflation factors from the domestic and international environment, the nbs will estimate whether there is a need to tighten monetary conditions further or whether the effects of past tightening ensure a sustainable return of inflation within the target tolerance band over the projection horizon. delivering price and financial stability in the medium term remains the nbs ’ s monetary policy priority, while supporting further economic growth and development, a further rise in employment and a favourable investment environment. i now give the floor to my colleagues from the economic research and statistics department to present our latest projections in more detail.

in the imf's estimate, ensures external sustainability. over the coming years, the current account deficit is expected to contract gradually towards 5 % of gdp ( assuming a normalisation of energy prices ) and to be covered by net fdi inflows to a substantial degree. chart 12 current account and fdi projection chart 13 dinar exchange rate and nbs transactions in the fx market ( in % of gdp ) ( eur / rsd ) * * - 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 source : nbs. * nbs projection. 2022 * secondary income services current account 2023 * 2024 * primary income goods fdi ( in eur mn ) 1, 000 - 200 - 400 - 600 - 800 nbs transactions in the fx market, monthly ( rhs ) * eur / rsd, monthly average ( lhs ) * * - 1, 000 - 1, 200 source : nbs. * + net purchase ; - net sale. * * eur 1 in rsd. depreciation pressures also stemmed from increased risk aversion amid uncertainty prevailing in the international financial market and households ’ elevated demand for cash in the initial weeks of the conflict. fdi inflow worked in the opposite direction, measuring eur 745 mn in the four months of the year and remaining diversified by project and geographical region. the nbs alleviated depreciation pressures by intervening in the fx market, thereby providing additional fx liquidity to banks, and, in april, also by raising the key policy rate. as a result, the dinar remained almost unchanged against the euro. by preserving exchange rate stability, we prevented the spillover of rising import prices of food and energy to other prices from being compounded by the effects of dinar depreciation, which was the case in previous episodes of robust growth in these prices. by doing this, we also prevented a fall in consumer and investment confidence. at the same time, i wish to reiterate that, thanks to a responsible conduct of economic policy and the proactive measures taken over the past years, we increased our fx reserves in order to be able to use them for responding to crises such as these which we have been facing in the past two years. despite hefty interventions in march, serbia ’ s fx reserves remained adequate at eur 14. 1 bn at end ‐ april, covering five months ’ worth of the import of goods and services, which is almost twice the level prescribed