distinguished guests, it is notable that, botswana now has a majority of regional banks or panafrican banks. aspirations. this is fitting for regional integration however, the immediate practicality is the potential to facilitate regional trade, which by extension, implies a larger market and improvement of prospects for industrialisation, economic diversification and inclusive growth, particularly given trade facilitation afforded by the african continental free trade area agreement, as well as the support provided by the regional economic communities such as sadc. the expectation is that the appreciation and knowledge of the african context and institutions by the panafrican banks would enable easier and productive engagement of the banks with local businesses. given what i have said about areas of financing need, digitalisation and trade opportunities, it is fitting to, therefore, introduce access bank plc to botswana ’ s economic recovery and transformation plan ( ertp ). i look forward to your active participation alongside your competitors in this national development and economic transformation effort, intended to accelerate economic diversification and inclusive growth and help to transition the country to high - income status by 2036. at a high level, the critical elements include promoting export - led growth involving integration of the domestic industry into the global value chains ( incidentally your presence in botswana is exactly that ) ; harnessing of information and communications technology, digitalisation, for the purposes of efficiently and competitively driving economic activity industries / businesses ; and for growth of new promoting enhanced use and productivity of domestically mobilised financial resources and therefore generate higher levels of industrialisation ; fostering infrastructure development and efficiency of provision of government services for greater impact on private sector operations. i believe, mr wigwe, that these are well aligned to your strategic intent for the botswana market and that you are well endowed to be part of this, especially as i believe you have aspirations to improve on the current position of the bank, of a p9. 1 billion asset base ( as at august 31, 2021 ) and 5th largest bank in the botswana market. operating environment, strong banks and financial stability honourable minister and distinguished guests, what i have spelt out is only possible in a stable and conducive operating environment. from the side of government and the bank, i can confidently state that botswana offers a well - developed public infrastructure, encompassing a liberal business operating environment, legal protection and respect for property rights, efficient and independent judiciary and, in general, macroeconomic stability, as the credit rating institutions ( moody ’ s and s & p

in semi - structural models, which unlike structural or dsge models, incorporate more inertia in consumption and less influence of forward - looking inflation expectations. this is why we should rely on a suite of models, and on actual data as much as on models. - the restrictive effects on activity, while being in mean reversed in 2025, are quicker than the dampening effects on inflation : hence we should be patient and consistent, including in our explanations to the broad public. the estimated transmission lags of monetary policy in the literature vary from one year5 to more than two years6. but interpreting these lags is more art than science. overall transmission lags of monetary policy to inflation can vary over time and across jurisdictions, depending on factors such as the level of interest rates, the phase of the cycle and the sectoral structure of the economy ( e. g. share of manufacturing, services, or housing ). in the current tightening cycle, several factors suggest that the lag in transmission of policy to the real economy may be at the upper end of the two - year range. first, the current tightening cycle started from exceptionally low levels of real interest rates – as measured by nominal ois rate deflated by market inflation expectations. 5. smets and wouters ( 2005 ) ; see also ecb nawm model presented in p. lane ’ s lecture on 16 / 02 / 2023, “ the euro area hiking cycle : an interim assessment ”. badinger and schiman ( 2023 ), measuring monetary policy in the euro area using svars with residual restrictions. american economic journal : macroeconomics 2023, 15 ( 2 ) : 279 – 305, or ; see also ecb - base model. page 9 sur 14 they reflect the financing conditions perceived by private agents when they take consumption or investment decisions. their evolution depends on our policy decisions, but also on inflation expectations. real rates increased significantly from historically low levels ( - 4 % for the 2y real ois rate in march 2022, see lhs panel ) but remained negative at all maturities until mid - december last year ( blue line on the rhs panel ). it is only from the end of 2022 that we achieved positive real rates. as we estimate the neutral rate r * to be close to zero, we are now clearly in restrictive territory. page 10 sur 14 second, the proportion of fixed - rate long - term loans is particularly high by historical standards