. the improvements that stand out relate to the achieved and preserved low and stable inflation, relative stability of the exchange rate, adequate level of fx reserves and stronger fiscal position. as confirmed by concentration indices, the agencies also emphasise the higher sectoral and geographical diversification of investments and exports, enabling more balanced economic growth. they also state full coverage of the current account deficit by the fdi inflow, unlike the situation before the global financial crisis of 2008, when portfolio investments, as the most volatile category of inflows, were the dominant source of financing of the then twin deficit. they estimate that the responsible conduct of economic policy has created room for the adoption of extensive monetary and fiscal measures that have mitigated the effects of the pandemic and created conditions for economic growth. they conclude that political stability, with the majority support for president vucic ’ s politics, is a guarantee of the continuity of sound 5 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches economic policies, which is among the key factors that bring serbia closer to the investment grade. what lies ahead of us? although the fight against the pandemic continues, with everything that has been done, it is now easier to look ahead, to plan and think about how to provide citizens with a higher standard of living and how to further improve our competitive position. what do the projections and movements of different indices and composite indicators tell us? ( slide 14 ) given that there is a significant degree of correlation between the corporate financial conditions index and gdp trends, this index can also be used as one of the economic activity indicators. the dynamics of its movement in 2020, indicating that exceptionally favourable conditions of corporate financing have been preserved, suggests that we can expect financial conditions to provide a positive contribution to economic recovery in the coming period as well. ( slide 15 ) in 2021, we expect a two - digit growth rate of serbian commodity exports, which passed the resilience test in practice last year. this growth will be led by supply - side factors – further growth in investments in export - oriented sectors, but also by the recovery of external demand, supported by the expected successful vaccination process worldwide. successful vaccination should also help create the conditions for the recovery of services, primarily tourism and transport. in the first quarter of this year serbia recorded a current account surplus ( of close to eur 160 mn ) as a result of the improvement of all current account components, mostly trade, with exports rising 16. 6 % and imports declining

jean - pierre landau : international monetary arrangements speech by mr jean - pierre landau, second deputy governor of the bank of france, before the reinventing bretton woods committee, beijing, 6 september 2010. * * * opinions expressed are solely mine and do not represent the views of banque de france or the eurosystem. international financial and monetary arrangements are currently extensively debated. for many countries, both advanced and emerging, the crisis has shown that there is a close link between internal and international financial stability. in addition, rebalancing of the world economy stands at the forefront of the g20 policy agenda and there is a perception it may be difficult to achieve under current arrangements. according to an apt definition, an international monetary system consists of ( i ) exchange rate arrangements ; ( ii ) capital flows ; and ( iii ) a collection of institutions, rules, and conventions that govern its operation ( carney, 2009 ). explicit or implicit “ rules of the games ” form the backbone of such a system. this is an ambitious approach and it may seem too normative to some. but it has a long history, starting with the gold standard, from which the phrase “ rules of the games ” originated. the bretton woods system itself was built around an elaborate framework of rules, disciplines and support mechanisms aimed at ensuring convertibility for the current account – but, crucially, not the capital account –, together with fixed but adjustable exchange rates. with the generalisation of flexible exchange rate regimes, the normative approach to the international monetary system was somehow weakened. capital account liberalisation led to entrust international financial markets with the “ disciplining ” function. when it became apparent that the discipline could often lead to abrupt capital flows reversal and crisis, the international community attempted to strengthen the imf surveillance and develop its facilities so as to pre - empt such shocks and make them more manageable. that is, basically, where we are today. everything must be done to ensure that imf surveillance works. but, like any “ disciplinary ” approach, it meets with three essential difficulties : first, diverging interests between countries ; second, enforcement problems ( the imf has naturally more leverage on countries that need its help than on others ). finally there is a perception of asymmetry in imf surveillance ; it may be compounded by a more fundamental and natural asymmetry between surplus and deficit countries, when it comes to implementing adjustment measures. and, some would say, there