in the number of failures. until the middle of last september, the crisis was largely financial. you will recall that until the failure of a systemic us institution, the emerging economies had not been affected, or barely, by the economic slowdown. following the bankruptcy of the us investment bank, the crisis suddenly worsened and spread throughout the whole world, affecting not only the financial system but also the real economy at the same time. a type of adverse feed - back loop was thus created, which has characterised the last two quarters. i repeat : we are in a period of market correction which is still under way and is of a very great magnitude. in this context, the hypothesis is being discussed in many countries of just nationalising the banks. some say that this would be a way of giving back confidence to the markets and to investors, which are still concerned that credit institutions remain too fragile. what do you think of this? when speaking of nationalisation, there are two options. the first option is that the state takes control of a bank, but without changing the legal framework. the company would remain governed by private law and the government is a simple shareholder. the second option is that the state changes the very nature of the credit institution, which becomes governed by public law. from my point of view, if state control were to prove necessary, it would by far be preferable it to be carried out on the basis of the first option. the aim is thus to guarantee a temporary state presence in the company, giving the government an exit strategy? precisely. the credibility of the choices is also dependent on the existence of a strategy to return to a normal situation. in the same way that we, as a central bank, have to have an exit strategy from monetary policy in exceptional times, governments must think of an exit strategy from extraordinary measures of economic policy. for monetary policy, “ exit strategy ” means that interest rates cannot fall any further? for central banks exit strategy means the clear path for unwinding the unconventional measures taken. this is essential to guarantee our fellow citizens that they can count on us not only to take today ’ s bold decisions but to make sure that price stability is ensured in the medium and long run. coming back to nationalisations, do you believe that public control of the banks is inevitable in order to get out of this crisis? in these circumstances it is very important to be humble. and to look at the facts and the figures in each particular case. there is

per barrel in the next three years. according to our preliminary estimates, the expansion of oil output under the new opec + agreements will add about 0. 1 pp to gdp growth this year and 0. 2 – 0. 3 pp next year. another important growth driver is domestic demand, including both consumer and investment demand. considering these trends, we have revised our economic growth forecast for this year upwards from 3 – 4 % to 4 – 4. 5 %. after the recovery, the economy will expand at a pace close to its potential. we forecast that gdp will equal 2 – 3 % in the next two years. the possibility to achieve higher economic growth rates will depend both on the expansion of production and logistics capacities and on labour resources, their expertise and performance. t hird. monetary conditions have been progressively adjusting to the earlier increases in the key rate, but are still accommodative. the yield curve of federal government bonds, which is used by banks as a benchmark for the interest rates they set for their clients, has significantly increased for maturities of up to three years, while staying almost unchanged in the long end. the rise in short - term yields reflects both our recent decisions and market expectations regarding the future key rate path. shifts in long - term yields are minor. among other things, this is an evidence of market participants ’ confidence that monetary policy will finally bring inflation back to the target. i would like to reiterate that these are long - term interest rates, rather than our key rate as such ( as is often stated ), that determine the affordability of credit for companies ’ investment purposes and of mortgage loans. as compared to yields on federal government bonds, interest rates on loans and deposits have responded more slowly and rose less significantly. our today ’ s decision is aimed at accelerating this process. an increase in interest rates will help restore households ’ propensity to save. growth in retail and corporate lending is close to its highest rates recorded in recent years. many borrowers seek to take out loans as soon as possible at lower interest rates. we have raised our lending growth forecast for this year. mortgage lending will continue to expand fast, while slightly decelerating after the amendments to the subsidised mortgage lending programme become effective. speaking of unsecured consumer lending, we can already observe the first signs of overheating. this lending segment has been growing faster than we forecast in april. on 1 july, we returned risk weights for