prasarn trairatvorakul : global risks and the outlook for thailand address by dr prasarn trairatvorakul, governor of the bank of thailand, at the fitch ratings ( thailand ) ’ s 10th anniversary annual conference, bangkok, 1 september 2011. * * * distinguished speakers and panelists, ladies and gentlemen, i would like to thank fitch ratings ( thailand ) ’ s for inviting me to give an opening address at this year 10th anniversary annual conference. i also like to say that the conference theme “ global risks and outlook for thailand ” is most timely and should stimulate quite active discussion among the distinguished audience in this room. i am sure that the conference will help bring new insights on how we should look at the world, advanced, and asian economies in the period ahead underlined by great uncertainties. for my part, i would like to highlight some key issues that can have potentially significant policy implications. i will touch briefly on three areas, namely the prospects of the advanced and asian economies, thailand ’ s economic outlook, and finally the key policy challenges going forward. at the outset, it is fair to say that prospects of the global economy could be quite murky over the year ahead. there are greater uncertainties with regard to the speed of recovery and additional policy actions in the us and eurozone economies, and the risks of misforecasting are high. worldwide, policymakers and markets have anticipated that the us sluggish recovery could face further downside risks as us fiscal and monetary policies could run out of “ bullets ” to provide the much needed stimulus. for the eurozone, doubts on the potential contagion of sovereign debt crisis to other european countries remain, reflecting the ineffective impact of domestic policy on the economic recovery in these economies. looking ahead, a more positive sentiment on the eurozone is contingent on the growth performance of germany and france in particular. but, recent signs of economic weakness in external and domestic demand in these countries have been somewhat worrisome, and new data release could either calm or jerk market sentiments. despite these rather gloomy prospects in advanced economies, i remain cautiously optimistic on the performance of asian economies for the rest of this year. my assessment is conditional on the ability of asian economies to maintain economic resilience and pursue an appropriate policy mix to preserve economic and financial stability. evidenced since the 2009 us crisis, major economies in asia have been able to cushion the adverse impact of global economic roller coaster by expanding

atchana waiquamdee : brief look at financial market indicators opening remarks by dr atchana waiquamdee, deputy governor for monetary stability, bank of thailand, at the workshop on financial market indicators, bangkok, 7 june 2007. * * * good morning, and allow me to welcome you to bangkok, and to this morning ’ s workshop on financial market indicators. the issue we are about to discuss today, namely the use financial indicators, itself is not a new topic. especially in more developed financial markets, the use of financial indicators has been integral to the well - functioning of markets. in those cases, utilizing financial market indicators in the policy - making process is nothing new. in many of the emerging markets of asia, however, this has not been the case. financial indicators in the emerging markets have been more difficult to come by, and even much more difficult to interpret – due largely to gaps in market development. yet, as the financial markets of asian economies began to gather both depth and breadth, more and more financial market indicators are becoming readily available for policy use. since the availability of the indicators in emerging markets is rather recent and the fundamental conditions in these markets are still very dissimilar to those of the more matured ones, the use of financial market indicators in emerging markets for policy purposes merits much thought and attention. so what exactly are we talking about when referring to financial market indicators? interpreted broadly, this can include relatively simple indicators, such as interest rates, interest rate spreads, and returns. they include other measures related to the value of financial or tangible assets like bonds, stocks, housing, and gold. and of course they also include more sophisticated, data - intensive estimates of risk, which we hope to discuss today. for central banks, one of the main questions that arises is whether financial market indicators are useful in setting monetary policy. and if so, which ones are most useful for central banks, and for what purpose? in general, financial market indicators are used by central banks to : ( 1 ) gauge market sentiment with regards to expected changes to policy variables ; ( 2 ) identify types and sources of shocks to the economy ; and ( 3 ) predict future developments in economic activity and inflation. such predictions of longer - term inflation are also useful in checking how markets view the credibility of the authorities ’ commitments to their final price target. so financial indicators can be used to double check econometric and judgmental predictions as well as flag a problem of