utilities ; i assure you, we are experiencing, appropriately, that “ or higher ” side of the spectrum. like our infrastructure peers we are challenged to maintain the integrity of existing operations while contending with a brave new world ; constrained by the demands of cost recovery and limited resources ; challenged by the multiplicity of risk and compliance frameworks with which to comply and governance and stakeholder bodies to satisfy ; conscious that we have to defend across an extended front while our adversary need only find a single point of entry ; and keenly aware that we must be perfect every day, our foe successful but once. these are heavy burdens ; i speak not to you, but of you. with that context these remarks ( i assure ) reflect my own views and do not necessarily represent those of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system. ( the best aside i ever heard in such a disclaimer came from former supreme court justice scalia, who was speaking to the economic club of new york, coincidentally the same week of his untimely passing. upon noting that the views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the supreme court or the government of the united states he added, slyly, “ they rarely do! ” this may be one of those occasions. ) provocative question number 1 : to what extent might the 2 - hour recovery time objective ( known in industry parlance as the “ 2 - hour rto ” ) alter the incentive structure and reaction function of an fmi operator responding to an “ extreme but plausible ” event, precipitating sub - optimal outcomes? encouraging timely recovery following a severe disruption is a difficult thesis with which to argue, and our policy brethren are to be commended for urging financial market infrastructures ( fmi ) to examine critically their recovery capacities. this supervisory impulse has already yielded rich dividends in encouraging the wholesale services operated by the reserve banks to question assumptions, to consider out - of - the - box solutions, and to prioritize the achievement of technical diversity and the assurance of data integrity as anchor elements of our resiliency regime. at the same time, i wonder if specifying a two - hour threshold, notwithstanding its noble intent, may alter the incentives and the reaction function for a financial market infrastructure when responding to an extreme event. could it, for example, encourage an fmi under duress to invoke prematurely contingency and failover procedures before an accurate diagnosis has been rendered? alternatively, could it encourage an

services has meant that labour markets have been resilient and remain tight. here in australia, employment growth has been strong and the unemployment rate has been 1 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches close to around 3½ per cent for a year now, which is the lowest level of unemployment for almost half a century. the participation rate is also at a record high, and many women and young people are benefiting from this. this is one of the positive legacies of the policy response to the pandemic and it is something we should all welcome. the recent data indicate that there has been some easing in the labour market, with firms reporting that it is less difficult to find workers than it was late last year. nonetheless, employment growth is still strong at a time of rapid population growth. we expect employment to continue to grow, but below the rate of growth in the labour force. as a result, the unemployment rate is forecast to rise gradually to reach around 4½ per cent late next year. the australian economy is currently experiencing a period of below - trend growth and this is expected to continue for a while yet. many households are facing a painful squeeze on their budgets and consumer demand has slowed considerably, not least because high inflation is eroding people's real incomes. the increase in interest rates is also weighing on disposable incomes for many households, although others are benefiting from the higher interest earned on their savings. the rba's staff are working hard to look beyond the aggregate figures and to understand where the financial pressures are most acute and the impact these pressures are having on people. it is clear that some households who borrowed at low interest rates during the pandemic are finding conditions very difficult, as are some renters. looking forward, the bank's central scenario is that economic growth remains subdued for the rest of this year before gradually picking up to around 2¼ per cent by end 2025. the ongoing moderation in inflation will mean that real incomes start rising again and this will ease the financial pressures that people are feeling. business investment has also been in an upswing as firms respond to the pressures on capacity utilisation. and dwelling investment is expected to increase again next year, after the recent difficulties in that sector. recent monetary policy decisions i would now like to turn to the reserve bank board's monetary policy decisions since the previous hearing in february. since that hearing, there have been six board meetings. at three of those the board