hand, is still higher than normal. unemployment varied between 6 and 8 per cent around an average of 7 per cent during the ten years preceding the financial crisis. 16 if the current rate of fall in unemployment continues, it will reach a normal level in the autumn of 2011. although, the assessment in the monetary policy report is that this will not take place so quickly, we should remember that both the riksbank and others have underestimated the strengthening of the labour market in recent years ( see figure 20 ). monetary policy must also take into account how the development of the economy affects wage formation. monetary policy must resist the temptation to stimulate production and employment in the short term over and above the level that is compatible with a stable development of wages and inflation. a very rapid improvement of the labour market may lead to problems in the wage negotiations that will begin in the autumn. wage formation has worked well in the last 15 years and this has helped to keep inflation at a low and stable level. it would be unfortunate if wage negotiations had to be conducted in a situation where there is overheating on the labour market. in the current situation, the shortage of labour is probably a better measure of how strained the labour market is than unemployment. the shortage of labour in the business sector was back to an almost normal level in the fourth quarter of 2010. in several parts of the business sector, however, the shortage was greater than normal, for example in the manufacturing industry and the construction industry, and for several types of labour, for example technical white - collar workers in the industrial sector and computer consultants ( see figure 21 ). the fact that the shortage of labour is already so high even though unemployment is still higher than normal indicates that matching on the labour market has deteriorated. this is also indicated by the beverage curve, which shows the relation between unemployment and vacancies. this has shifted outwards, that is a certain level of vacancies is compatible with a higher rate of unemployment. in part, this may be a cyclical phenomenon, but the change is so large that it may also relate to a structural deterioration ( see figure 22 ). one difficulty at present is to assess whether the normal rate of unemployment has changed due to the financial crisis and economic policy. in connection with a severe downturn, the sustainable rate of unemployment ( nairu ) usually increases, at least initially. but the nairu will probably also be affected by the labour - market reforms implemented in recent years. some

andriy pyshnyy : national bank of ukraine press briefing - monetary policy decisions speech by mr andriy pyshnyy, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at a press briefing on monetary policy decisions, kyiv, 14 september 2023. * * * the board of the national bank of ukraine has today decided to cut the key policy rate to 20 %. the further pullback in inflation and the nbu's ability to ensure fx market sustainability are making it possible to continue the cycle of key policy rate cuts while maintaining the sufficient attractiveness of hryvnia savings. such a step will support the economic recovery without posing threats to macrofinancial stability. although headline inflation has been declining faster than expected, core inflation is close to the nbu's forecast in year - on - year terms, inflation slowed to 8. 6 % in august. price movements came out better than the nbu anticipated, primarily due to an increase in the supply of food products. however, the drop in core inflation ( down to 10 % in year - on - year terms ) was close to the forecast the nbu made in july. the nbu's measures to keep hryvnia assets attractive and the fx market sustainable played an important role in easing underlying price pressures. among other things, the nbu's actions helped further improve exchange - rate and inflation expectations. the overall downtrend in inflation is set to persist, but there is little to no potential for a rapid slowdown in price growth on the one hand, better harvests will continue to restrain price increases in the following months. the impact of the fixing of some utility tariffs will also remain. the nbu is committed to persevere in ensuring the sustainability of the fx market to keep exchange - rate and inflation expectations in check. on the other hand, business costs will remain under significant pressure to increase because of war - related losses as well as higher prices for electricity and fuel. although significant amounts of official financing have maintained ukraine's international reserves at a high level, further international support is vital amid significant budgetary needs official financing enables the nbu not only to make up for a significant shortage of foreign currency in the market, but also to maintain international reserves at a high level. in august, they exceeded usd 40 billion. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches budget revenues and investments are not sufficient to meet expenditures. international aid will therefore continue to be the primary