command trust from investors and the public. for these reasons, the reputable credit agencies have still reaffirmed their positive assessment of the thai economy. indeed, the recent economic conditions have underscored the importance of preserving sound macroeconomic fundamentals in order to create resilience in the face of unexpected shocks. domestically, the recent economic slowdown has put some small businesses and indebted households under financial strains. loan quality has deteriorated somewhat, with npl increasing slightly as a result, but these risks have been contained to specific sectors. the banking system and corporate sector remain strong and have coped with the slowdown well, owing to their improved risk management policies. externally, like many emerging markets, thailand faced a couple episodes of capital flow volatility in recent years. the economy, however, has withstood these challenges reasonably well. for instance, during the “ taper tantrum ” in may 2013 and our own political unrest towards the end of 2013, thai baht had swung by more than 10 percent in a year, fluctuating from 30 baht per us dollar to 28 and back to close to 33 baht. despite this volatility, market reactions ( in terms of outflows ) have been relatively dampened. foreign participation in the thai bond market decreased from a peak of 13 percent to the current level of around 10 percent of total outstanding public sector bond. the strong local institutional investor base was able to pick up from where foreigners left. despite foreigners exiting the thai bond market, total portfolio outflows last year ( 2014 ) amounted to a mere 1 percent of our international reserves. a flexible exchange rate, a relatively balanced external position and a modest external exposure, altogether acting as the first line of defence, contributed to the success. the bank of thailand is also equipped with comprehensive policy tools, along with ample international reserves, that can be used as a backstop to deal with disruptive capital flows and to examples of anti - corruption measures are 1 ) the construction sector transparency initiative ( cost ) which promotes transparency in state enterprise projects and 2 ) integrity pacts which oversee purchase plans of government and state enterprise projects. among the big projects already implemented are 1 ) suvarnabhumi airport phase ii 2 ) the blue line metro extension, and 3 ) bangkok ngv bus purchase plan. total corporate debt / total corporate equity. bis central bankers ’ speeches safeguard financial stability. in fact, these are our multiple lines of defence available at our disposal.

3 %. tourism continuous recovery shall give a better support to growth this year. the tourism sector has a significant impact on thai economy as the sector accounts for 12 % of gdp and employs over 20 % of total employment, both directly and indirectly. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the drag factors that will drop off in 2023, there was a huge inventories drawdown, which equivalent to 4 % of gdp. we expect that to happen much less this year. more fiscal spending would be disbursed once the fiscal budget is approved in april and accelerate in the second half of the year. exports will expand as global good cycle returns ( expect export value to be positive in 2024 compared to - 1. 7 % yoy in 2023 ). on the inflation front, the disinflation process has been faster than expected ( peaked at 8 % in august 2022 / 7 months later back to our target range of 1 - 3 % ). recently, headline inflation figures were negative and will remain negative until april, but deflation risk is quite low for several reasons. first, the recent negative headline inflation was mainly due to supply factor, especially government subsidies on energy and electricity prices. if we exclude the subsidies, the headline number would still be positive. second, the price decreases were not broad - based, the categories of goods and services with price declines were around 25 % of total cpi basket, while the other 75 % are either stable or increasing. third, inflation expectations are well - anchored within the target range around 2 %, and we do not observe broad weakness in consumption that would usually be observed in deflation circumstances. on the financial front, we expect non - performing loans ( npls ) to increase, but low chance of an npl cliff ( npl is at 2. 7 % as of q4 / 23 ). in addition, some corporate bonds may face repayment difficulties, especially in the high yield segment, but impact should be limited and contained. meanwhile, financial markets will remain volatile. why an increase in npl is not a surprise : during the crisis, a lot of measures were implemented to support borrowers, such as regulatory forbearance measures to encourage debt restructuring. when the economy is going back to normal, it is not appropriate to continue with these measures as their continued existence could create undesirable and unintended consequences. with the fact that we have significant shares of borrowers under various kinds of supporting