lars rohde : the danish economy against the background of global economic developments speech by mr lars rohde, governor of the national bank of denmark, at the annual meeting of the association of danish mortgage banks 2014, copenhagen, 2 october 2014. * * * firstly, i am pleased to note that your annual meeting is on 2 october this year, not 26 september as it was last year. it has been moved from the anniversary of the peace in lund on 26 september 1679, when denmark definitively surrendered the provinces of scania, halland and blekinge to sweden, to the anniversary of the referendum on 2 october 1972, when a majority of the danes voted to join the ec. surely that signals a positive, forward - looking attitude. as regards the international economy, the 1st half of the year was a little weaker than expected at the turn of the year. growth is expected to pick up in the 2nd half of 2014 and in 2015. the us economy grew in the 1st half of 2014, while economic development was weaker in the euro area. the german economy slowed down a little in the spring following strong growth at the beginning of the year. unlike previously, greece, portugal and spain are now also experiencing sound growth. that is not the case in france and italy, which are both struggling with considerable structural problems. their competitiveness has deteriorated over a number of years, and france will not comply with the recommendation to reduce its budget deficit to 3 per cent of gdp by 2015. euro area price inflation has been decreasing for some time and was 0. 3 per cent in september according to the preliminary data. this is substantially below the ecb ’ s target of inflation close to, but just under, 2 per cent. the ecb ’ s deposit rate, which determines money market interest rates, has been negative since 11 june. against the backdrop of weakening euro area growth momentum, weak credit growth and declining inflation, the ecb reduced its rates of interest further with effect from 10 september. the deposit rate is now negative by 0. 2 per cent. in addition, the ecb announced two new purchase programmes to support lending to the private sector. and loans for up to 4 years are provided at a rate of interest of 15 basis points. in other words, a series of non - standard measures have been introduced. the markets do not expect monetary policy interest rates to be raised again until sometime during 2017. so the period of very low interest rates – also in denmark –

nils bernstein : global recovery and the danish economic outlook speech by mr nils bernstein, governor of the national bank of denmark, at the annual meeting of the association of danish mortgage banks, copenhagen, 22 april 2010. * * * the global economy is on the mend. the latest indicators point to a faster recovery than previously expected. there is considerable regional variation, and it is likely to be a bumpy ride. the emerging and developing economies show the strongest growth. countries like china, india and brazil are now less affected by the economic crisis, while growth is more subdued in the old oecd countries, especially europe. global gdp contracted by 0. 6 per cent in 2009, the strongest fall in output since world war ii. for comparison, global growth peaked at more than 5 per cent before the slowdown set in. the crisis originated in the usa, but europe experienced the most severe setback. indeed, the recovery now seems to be stronger in the usa than in europe. the us business sector has once again demonstrated its adaptability. however, the main driver of the global economic recovery is the very accommodative economic policy. many countries have historically low monetary - policy interest rates and very high budget deficits. budget deficits of such magnitude may only exist for a relatively short period of a few years. most countries are facing a consolidation challenge in the coming years, and some have to start already this year. optimism about the global economy is only moderate because it is still uncertain whether the recovery will be self - sustaining. this means whether private demand will be able to take over when fiscal policies are tightened again. the global recovery is illustrated by the rebound in world trade after the strong drop. before the crisis, the limelight was on international imbalances, especially the large us currentaccount deficit and china ’ s equally large surplus. the crisis has not eliminated these imbalances, and the discussion of the exchange rate of the chinese currency should be viewed against that backdrop. the market focus has shifted to fiscal imbalances – sovereign risk has taken centre stage. the imf expects the government debt of the old oecd countries taken as one to reach 110 per cent of gdp by 2014. this is an alarming figure, but it covers considerable variation across countries. greece is an example of how slippery the slope can be if a country is too complacent for too long. but greece ’ s tribulations have also highlighted the eurosyst