economic research, march ; revised november 2023 ), https : / / www. nber. org / system / files / working _ papers / w31010 / w31010. pdf. see ryan a. decker and john haltiwanger ( 2023 ), “ surging business formation in the pandemic : causes and consequences? ” paper presented at the brookings papers on economic activity conference, held at the brookings institution, washington, september 28 – 29, https : / / www. brookings. edu / wpcontent / uploads / 2023 / 09 / 4 _ decker - haltiwanger _ unembargoed. pdf. on march 25, 2024, this speech was updated to add a new footnote 6 and renumber the remaining footnotes. - 14 adjustments can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to 2 percent while striving to maintain the strong labor market. i have covered a lot of ground with you today, material that you will learn more about if you choose further study of macroeconomics, or economics more generally. i hope you will find, as i have, that this journey feeds your curiosity, sharpens your thinking, and expands your horizons. note : percent change in the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index from 12 months ago. core refers to the price index excluding food and energy. the gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the nine shaded recession periods extend from april 1960 through february 1961, december 1969 through november 1970, november 1973 through march 1975, january 1980 through july 1980, july 1981 through november 1982, july 1990 through march 1991, march 2001 through november 2001, december 2007 through june 2009, and february 2020 through april 2020. source : bureau of economic analysis ; personal consumption expenditures price index via haver analytics. 2. subcomponents of personal consumption expenditures price indexes note : data extend through january 2024. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the shaded recession period extends from february 2020 through april 2020. source : bureau of economic analysis via haver analytics. note : percent change in various market - rate rent indexes and the housing services category of the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index from 12 months ago. corelogic, realpage, and zillow measure market - rate rents — that is, rents

the formation of these expectations in the absence of full knowledge of the underlying structure of the economy. 2 for example, considerations of how the public learns about the economy and the objectives of the central bank can affect the form of the optimal monetary policy ( gaspar, smets, and vestin, 2006 ; orphanides and williams, 2007 ). furthermore, when the public is unsure about the central bank's objectives, even greater benefits may accompany achieving a stable inflation rate, as doing so may help anchor the public's inflation expectations. these studies also show why central bank communications is a key component of monetary policy ; in a world of uncertainty, informing the public about the central bank's objectives, plans, and outlook can affect behavior and macroeconomic outcomes ( bernanke, 2004 ; and orphanides and williams, 2005 ). conclusion uncertainty – about the state of the economy, the economy's structure, and the inferences that the public will draw from policy actions or economic developments – is a pervasive feature of monetary policy making. the contributions of bill poole have helped refine our understanding of how to conduct policy in an uncertain environment. notably, we now appreciate that policy decisions under uncertainty must take into account a range of possible scenarios about the state or structure of the economy, and those policy decisions may look quite different from those that would be optimal under certainty. for example, policy actions may be attenuated or augmented relative to the " no - uncertainty benchmark, " depending on one's judgments about the possible outcomes and the costs associated with those outcomes. the fact that the public is uncertain about and must learn about the economy and policy provides a reason for the central bank to strive for predictability and transparency, avoid overreacting to current economic information, and recognize the challenges of making realtime assessments of the sustainable level of real economic activity and employment. most fundamentally, our discussions of the pervasive uncertainty that we face as policymakers is a powerful reminder of the need for humility about our ability to forecast and manage the future course of the economy. references bernanke, ben s. ( 2004 ). " fedspeak ", speech delivered at the meetings of the american economic association, san diego, january 3, www. federalreserve. gov / boarddocs / speeches / 2004 / 200401032 / default. htm. bernanke ( 2007 ) and the references therein. _ _ _ _ _ _ _