louis kasekende : econometric analysis and policy changes in africa opening remarks by dr louis kasekende, deputy governor of the bank of uganda, at the seventeenth conference of the african econometric society, kampala, 25 july 2012. * * * ladies and gentlemen, let me begin by welcoming everyone to this conference and, to those of you who have travelled from abroad, to uganda. the theme of the conference is “ econometric analysis and policy challenges in africa ”. it is a theme which is close to my own heart as a central banker, because i am frequently faced with having to make policy decisions in circumstances in which our knowledge of critical relationships in the economy – for example the relationships which underlie the monetary transmission mechanism – is somewhat rudimentary. in many cases, decisions must be taken even though there exist no strong empirical evidence drawn directly from our own economy to inform our assumptions about the economic relationships which are relevant to these decisions. instead we have to fall back on what economic theory tells us about the nature of these relationships, supplemented in some cases by empirical evidence of similar relationships from other african countries, if such evidence exists. hence inevitably the expected outcomes of decisions are often clouded in uncertainty ; of course in a probabilistic world outcomes are always uncertain, but the degree of uncertainty is probably greater in africa than in many other parts of the world, because our economies have been the subject of much less rigorous empirical research than economies elsewhere. clearly this is not a satisfactory basis for making decisions which affect the lives of millions of people. it is a problem which affects policymaking in many different areas of macro and micro economics, from monetary policy, to public finance, to agricultural policy. econometric analysis can make a valuable contribution to the understanding of the policy challenges in africa because it is the key research tool available to economists for the testing of hypotheses against the data, for establishing causal relationships and for the measurement of relationships posited by economic theory. in the final analysis, if we want to strengthen our analysis of economic relationships, there is no substitution for taking theory to the data in a statistically rigorous manner. econometrics is also a valuable tool for aiding economic forecasting, which is essential for policymaking in many areas. although there has been much progress over the last few years, supported in no small measure by the african econometric society, the volume of econometric research on all aspects of african economies

bank of uganda remarks by louis kasekende ( phd. ), deputy governor, bank of uganda … … … … … … … … …. at the launch of the orient bank ’ s financial literacy programme – the orient bank business academy … … … … … … … … …. kampala, 30 august 2016 the chairman and members of the board of directors of orient bank ltd, the managing director / ceo of orient bank ltd, all distinguished guests, the media fraternity, ladies and gentlemen, good morning! let me thank the board and management of orient bank for inviting me to today ’ s launch of the bank ’ s financial literacy and entrepreneurship programme – the orient bank business academy. financial education and entrepreneurship training are critical in helping citizens to participate fully in the development process. they both help to alleviate demand side constraints to financial inclusion and empower citizens to better manage their personal resources that are vital in developing small and mediumsize enterprises. i want to highlight three issues which are relevant for this business academy initiative. the first is the level of entrepreneurship in uganda and the related high mortality rate of businesses. uganda is ranked as one of the most entrepreneurial countries in sub - saharan africa and the world. according to the global entrepreneurship monitor ( gem ) 2014 data, uganda had an early - stage entrepreneurial activity rate ( the proportion of the population aged 18 - 64 years who either are a nascent entrepreneur or owner - manager of a page 2 of 7 new business ) of 36 percent compared to the sub - saharan african average of about 28 percent. yet, the attrition rate is also relatively very high with a failure1 of businesses estimated at a rate of 26 percent relative to the average of about 16 percent for sub - saharan africa. so, what accounts for this high failure rate? according to the said gem report, engaging in unprofitable business accounted for more than one in every three instances of business discontinuation, and this can result from a wide range of factors such as continued informality of businesses, misconception of a business idea to management challenges and problems of getting and managing finances. this failure rate means that very few small firms ever grow into bigger firms to attain economies of scale and contribute to formal employment creation. this is compounded by low growth expectations of ugandan entrepreneurs with the gem data estimating that only ten percent of the early stage enterprises expected to employ at least 5 employees within the subsequent five years the second issue relates to some perceptions being