projected to receive benefits. notably, this year about 5 individuals are between the ages of 20 and 64 for each person aged 65 or older. by the time most of the baby boomers have retired in 2030, this ratio is projected to have declined to around 3. in addition, government expenditures on health care for both retirees and non - retirees have continued to rise rapidly as increases in the costs of care have exceeded increases in incomes. to avoid sharp, disruptive shifts in spending programs and tax policies in the future, and to retain the confidence of the public and the markets, we should be planning now how we will meet these looming budgetary challenges. achieving long - term fiscal sustainability will be difficult. but unless we as a nation make a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, in the longer run, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.

spencer dale : 2010 – a progress report speech by mr spencer dale, executive director and chief economist of the bank of england, at the kent business school 21st anniversary dinner, canterbury, 1 december 2010. * * * i would like to thank ryan banerjee, rohan churm, and geoff coppins for their considerable help in preparing this speech. the views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of other members of the monetary policy committee. introduction it is an honour to be invited here this evening to help you and the business school celebrate its 21st anniversary. birthdays are a natural time to pause and reflect – especially those that mark a coming of age. reflecting on your first 21 years, much has changed since the business school was founded. some of you may remember that 1989 was the year in which nigel lawson resigned as chancellor and the berlin wall fell. you may remember less well that it was also the year that kylie and jason enjoyed four number 1 hits and coronation street attracted its largest ever audience to watch alan bradley meet his grisly end under a blackpool tram. how time flies. the economy has also had its fair share of ups and downs since then. after the 1990s recession, we enjoyed 63 quarters of consecutive growth, withstanding en route the effects of black wednesday and the dotcom bubble. inflation targeting was introduced, the monetary policy committee created and we benefitted from a sustained period of low and stable inflation. but as you know, this period of great stability came to an abrupt end with the largest financial crisis for at least a generation. output fell like a stone and inflation was buffeted by a series of price level shocks. i want to continue this theme of reflection in my comments tonight. however, with 2010 drawing to a close, i will restrict my observations to events over the past year – and what they may herald for the future – rather than your entire 21 years. a progress report for 2010. this has certainly been a busy year. the uk economy continued along the road to recovery. a new coalition government was formed and set in train what is planned to be the largest fiscal consolidation of the post - war period. the government also announced a major reform of the structure of financial regulation, assigning considerable new responsibilities to the bank of england. these events have taken place against a backdrop of strong global recovery, but one in which some countries, most notably within the euro area, continue to face acute fiscal and banking pressures, and large imbalances between surplus