eba research on the ‘ sme supporting factor ’ introduced as part of crr found no evidence that it was effective in reducing pricing or increasing lending. eba - op - 2016 - 04 report on smes and sme supporting factor. pdf ( europa. eu ) 7. that said, there is a legitimate question about how far the current capital framework should capture risks 20 + years in the future. i return to this point later on. 8. you may find it counterintuitive that the 2050 temperature outcomes do not differ wildly across these two scenarios – but that reminds us that changes in climate policy take a long time to feed through to climate outcomes. 9. risks outside the scope of the exercise include traded risk for banks, and mortality risk for life insurers. it is worth noting that the impact could also be lower, most obviously because the modelling constraint of a fixed balance sheet in the cbes limited firms ’ room to adapt to evolving risks. 10. within the corporate sector, the industries with biggest losses from the transition are mining ( including extraction of petroleum and natural gas ), manufacturing, transport and wholesale & retail trade. the cumulative impairment rate on lending to these sectors averaged 35 %. insurers projected heavy corporate bond and equity losses in similar sectors, especially oil and gas. 11. it ’ s also probably fair to say that our ability to model the naa scenario is more incomplete than the ea and la scenarios – so there are greater risks of uncaptured or unanticipated losses in that scenario. 12. based on analysis on the location of impairments within the four - digit postcodes analysed. 13. and we know there are gaps. since this was our and the firms ’ first exercise we deliberately chose not to capture all possible sources of risk. 14. but this is something that the bank will be exploring further, and where we have invited external analysis and research to inform our views. we will be holding a conference later in the year to discuss.

##ness but also because its fortunes were tied to the pace of recovery in the most severely affected economies. moreover, with the economy already hamstrung by a legacy of vast and growing public debt, there was little room for local fiscal stimulus. adopting a longer view of growth and development, the authorities took the opportunity of using the support on offer from the multilaterals to formulate and implement a broad slate of reforms. at the end of the process, the programme promises an even stronger financial architecture, a clear path towards fiscal and debt sustainability and, importantly, the entrenchment of macroeconomic stability as a basis for more investment and steady growth. since february 2010, we have embarked resolutely on the reform path and have made good progress to date. the international monetary fund, which has played a key role in global surveillance and advice, has a unique and privileged view of cross - country developments. it is not very often, however, that we have the opportunity to have senior officials from that institution discuss the issues and solutions that are specific to our region and for them to receive feedback on those views from practitioners across the region. discussions at events such as the annual meetings of the fund and the world bank need to satisfy the needs of a large number of constituents. they therefore tend to be either too “ global ” in their plenary discussions or too fragmented in their selection of issues related to the caribbean for there to be meaningful regional perspectives. we therefore welcome this initiative to present the regional economic outlook right here in jamaica and the bank of jamaica is happy to be the appointed place for what will follow over the next two hours or so. so, again, let me welcome you to this presentation of the regional economic outlook by the imf and the discussion to follow. we look forward to your active participation. thank you.