petar chobanov : what to expect for banks and the economy in 2024 speech by mr petar chobanov, deputy governor of the bulgarian national bank, at the opening of the " banks and business " conference, organised by the capital newspaper, sofia, 5 december 2023. * * * first of all, i would like to thank the organisers from'capital'for inviting me to take part in today's conference, which over the past decade has established itself as an important event in the area of finance in bulgaria. the subjects on today's agenda are extremely important and highly topical in the field of banking services. the new year 2024 is a natural continuation of the macroeconomic and global processes that originated with the onset and spread of the covid - 19 pandemic. since 2020, we have been faced with a unique situation in the world economy, in which the dynamism of events is predetermined by a series of shock events. the pandemic caused by covid - 19 has created conditions for monetary and fiscal relaxation which made economic agents have unrealistic expectations, and also for inflation comparable with the oil price shocks of the 1970s. in early 2022, with the start of the military invasion in ukraine, the cumulating economic shocks intensified, exacerbating the supply chain issues in the global economy and creating pre - conditions for the outbreak of an energy and food crisis, and with recent developments in the middle east these conditions have the potential to escalate and grow into a much broader humanitarian crisis by its nature. turning to the national specifics in bulgaria, we are meeting the year 2024 confronted with the already mentioned external challenges, and at the same time it should be noted that it seems that one of the safeguards inherent to the economy, which would arise from the declaration and implementation of a clear and consistent fiscal conservatism, will be lacking. on the other hand, in national conditions, especially considering our future entry into the euro area, the most effective macroeconomic policy is precisely the synergistic interaction between monetary and fiscal policies, which is somehow underestimated and sent into the background, while a kind of priority is given to fiscal dominance. the bnb's position on the fisc has always tended towards moderate conservatism, combined with the precise setting and planning of budget buffers that have the potential to provide fiscal space in the realisation of significant economic risks. for

social insurance administration uses to execute its payments. it is the swedish national debt office ’ s job, in its role as bank to the central government, to pay pension money to a number of banks as instructed by the social insurance offices. these banks in turn distribute money to the pensioners ’ accounts in their own banks, if the pensioners have bank accounts there. for those pensioners who have accounts in banks other than those with which the swedish social insurance administration has an agreement, the money is forwarded to these banks through bankgirocentralen. the pensioners who do not have a bank account at all are instead given a payment slip that can be redeemed at any bank or at svensk kassaservice. the swedish national debt office makes the payment of pension funds by temporarily, over the day, using its credit with the riksbank. this debt must be repaid before the end of the day as the riksbank may not finance government expenditure. the debt office therefore borrows money on the money market towards the end of the day. this money is deposited in the swedish national debt office ’ s account with the riksbank, through the rix system, which sets the debt office ’ s account to zero before the end of the evening. bank a, which is the final instance to pay out ingrid's pension, will require cash, which in turn is ordered from the riksbank. the payment for the cash is made by bank a withdrawing money from its account with the riksbank via the rix system. after this, bank a can collect money from a cash depot with the aid of a cash - in - transit firm, which distributes cash to the banks / atms and to svensk kassaservice. it is only after all these stages that ingrid can collect her pension in cash from a bank, svensk kassaservice, rural postman or through a debit card in a supermarket. these payments of cash in themselves generate a new flow of information through the same and other infrastructures. this example, which is very simplified, and not in any way exhaustive, shows that complex planning, infrastructure and timing of the payment flows and information flows is necessary to make even simple and foreseeable payments. in this example the payment orders and money flow between the riksbank ’ s rix system, bankgirocentralen, the banks and the swedish national debt office. these