funds rate will continue to be guided by the incoming data and its implications for the outlook for inflation and economic activity. i will be looking for compelling signs that inflation has peaked and for more consistent indications that inflation is on a downward path, in determining both the appropriate size of future rate increases and the level at which the federal funds rate is sufficiently restrictive. i expect that once we achieve a sufficiently restrictive federal funds rate, it 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches will need to remain at that level for some time in order to restore price stability, which will in turn help to create conditions that support a sustainably strong labor market. maintaining a steadfast commitment to restoring price stability is essential to support a sustainably strong labor market. to this point, unemployment has remained low as we have tightened monetary policy and made progress in lowering inflation. i take this as a hopeful sign that we can succeed in lowering inflation without a significant economic downturn. it is likely that as a part of this process, labor markets will soften somewhat before we bring inflation back to our 2 percent goal. while the effects of monetary policy tightening on the job market have generally been limited so far, slowing the economy will likely mean that job creation also slows. and if there are unforeseen shocks to the economy, growth may slow further. it's important to keep in mind that there are costs and risks to tightening policy to lower inflation, but i see the costs and risks of allowing inflation to persist as far greater. these dynamics make the difficult decisions facing the fomc even more challenging, but it is absolutely necessary that the committee achieves our goal of price stability. from the late 1960s through the mid - 1980s, the u. s. economy experienced high inflation, high unemployment, and declining living standards. during that time, policymakers prematurely eased monetary policy when the economy weakened, and inflation remained high. the fomc was forced to return to tightening monetary policy, causing a deep recession in 1981 and 1982. this is an important lesson that guides my thinking about monetary policy and my continued support for policy actions that will continue to lower inflation. it is also important to remember that today's inflation is a global concern. this is because some of the factors driving inflation in the united states are global, including the disruption to goods production and trade during the pandemic, the shutdown and reopening of large economies, and the more recent disruption of food and energy supplies due to

in both the february 2020 and 2021 outgoing rotation groups. earnings are weekly and were compared with all members of the outgoing rotation group in february 2020. 2 see the federal reserve banks'small business credit survey : 2021 report on employer firms ( pdf ) fielded in september – october 2020. 3 see the frbs'small business credit survey in note 2 as well as small business credit survey : 2021 report on firms owned by people of color ( pdf ) released on april 15, 2021. 4 data comparisons are for the period between february 2020 and march 2021. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches