of oil, with fluctuations and considering the brent - wti average, is slightly below those at the cutoff date of the previous report. the copper price rise has coincided with a well - stocked market despite supply - side problems, in the context of a weak dollar. china's low interest rates and better performance lend support to higher prices in the short term. in any case, although its price is not expected to remain stable, it is projected to average more than june's estimates. in our baseline scenario, the pound of copper should trade at an average of $ 2. 75 in 20172018, and at $ 2. 70 in 2019. stronger economic growth in the developed world has also consolidated. the united states, like it did several quarters ago, shows a good performance of consumption and a dynamic labor market. europe has seen a strong recovery in its growth rates, all across the economies making up the group, beyond the differences that persist among them in variables such as the size of the gap and the unemployment rate. growth in japan surprised positively, and expectations have been revised upwards. meanwhile, inflation has tended to subside and the monetary authorities of the developed world have made no big changes to their monetary policy strategies. nevertheless, the market has been incorporating some moderation into its vision of the us monetary policy and some more intensity in that of the eurozone, which partly explains the global depreciation of the dollar. emerging currencies have benefited from the weak dollar, the better prices of commodities and increased risk appetite. comparing the statistical closures of this and the previous reports, the peso has appreciated by around 4. 5 %, which, in real terms, translates into a decrease of approximately 3. 5 % of the real exchange rate. thus, at the last cutoff date it was fluctuating around 90 in its 1986 = 100 measurement, lower than its averages of the last 15 or 20 years. moreover, in the days following the statistical closure, the peso has continued to appreciate in both nominal and real terms. as a working assumption, the baseline scenario of this report assumes a slight depreciation in real terms over the projection horizon ( figure 7 ). turning to the performance of the emerging economies, in the first half of the year china grew 6. 9 % annually, exceeding expectations. these figures raise the baseline scenario estimate, although some moderation in activity is assumed for the second half, in line with the latest data on manufacturing output,

central bank of chile october 2019 third statistics conference : “ measuring the economy in the digital age ” opening remarks by mario marcel, governor of the central bank of chile october 1 - 2, 2019 – santiago, chile good morning, it is a great pleasure to welcome you to the third statistics conference organized by the central bank of chile ( cbc ), on “ measuring the economy in the digital age ” that brings together distinguished experts on macro statistics from many agencies and countries around the globe. this conference follows the one on “ statistics for financial and monetary analysis ” in 2015 and on “ measuring the economy in a globalized world ” in 2017 and it is becoming a landmark event for the cbc, and i hope for all participants as well. the conference we are opening today will address the opportunities and challenges that digitalization imposes on us in interpreting and analyzing increasingly dynamic economic and financial phenomena. the digital economy digitization is progressively changing the way we understand our world, by creating new business models and processes, generating new smart products and services, with lower costs and more timely delivery, all of which is reshaping consumer behavior. major questions are emerging about the ability of our conventional toolkit to measure economic activity in the face of such changes. digital products, services and means of economic interaction are making the task of identifying economic phenomena more challenging, especially for economic and financial statistics. traditionally, economic transactions were governed by the interaction between producers and households. in the digital age, households have become firms, and, in turn, producers hire the households ’ services directly. seemingly, free products and services have also emerged. all this calls for a revision of a number of assumptions behind gdp as a measure of the population ’ s well - being. what exactly is the digital economy is an issue still under discussion. according to the organization for the economic co - operation and development ( oecd ), the focus is on digital transactions, that is, those that order or deliver products using digital means. according to this definition, one important feature of digitization is the massiveness of peer - to - peer services intermediated by platforms such as airbnb, uber, or ebay, which facilitate transactions of goods and services. the international monetary fund ( imf ), in turn, defines the digital economy as the use of digital information. working groups of international experts are being convened to elaborate on these definitions and to propose a general framework for measuring the digital economy. the structural changes associated with digitization result in