, or even exceeding the target range, on a sustained basis. the sarb ’ s forecast for gdp growth for 2018 was revised down from 1. 7 % to 1. 2 %, while the forecasts for both 2019 and 2020 were slightly higher at 1. 9 % and 2. 0 % respectively. following the broad - based contraction of 2. 2 % in the first quarter of 2018, indications based on high frequency data suggest continued sluggish performance of the economy in the second quarter, but with a likelihood that a technical recession will be avoided. as indicated previously, with south africa having no fiscal space and monetary policy similarly currently not being able to provide further stimulus, the attention needs to firmly shift towards fully restoring confidence and urgent implementation of structural reforms to help lift the potential rate of growth of the south african economy. page 11 of 12 conclusion let me conclude by reiterating the remarks made by robert shiller of yale university on the subject of the fourth industrial revolution : “ you cannot wait until a house burns down to buy fire insurance on it. we cannot wait until there are massive dislocations in our society to prepare for the fourth industrial revolution. ” indeed, it is up to us whether we succeed in the fourth industrial revolution – whether it will be a time of great promise or a time of great peril, both for the continent and for our country. new technologies will transform the world we live in. the exponential speed and scope of this transformation brings with it the potential for unlimited possibilities and endless opportunities, but also massive challenges. educational institutions need to understand the implications of the fourth industrial revolution in order to better prepare their students for this new future. our fate is in our hands. we cannot afford to be left behind, and institutions such as the university of zululand have an important role to play in ensuring that we are not left behind. thank you for your attention. page 12 of 12

under current abnormal circumstances. the further danger we face is that as the balance sheets of the central banks expand rapidly, down the line there may be inflationary pressures. central banks will have to be ready to absorb this excess liquidity, but without killing off the recovery. 4. 6 the g - 20 recognises that even within the framework of a co - ordinated response, local conditions will shape the nature of the response of individual countries. while many countries responded with substantial interest rate reductions, these responses were carried out in the context of very low inflation in many instances, and the need to provide liquidity to ailing banking sectors. while the response of the south african reserve bank may appear to be less strong than in many other countries, it should be borne in mind that we started out with a relatively high inflation rate and a relatively healthy banking system. we are seeing a slowdown in the rate of inflation and, although it is relatively sticky, we still expect to be back within the target over the medium term. this has allowed for a 350 basis point reduction in the repurchase rate to date. a continuation of this slowdown of inflation, in part a result of the widening output gap, may allow for further monetary easing. 4. 7 as part of stimulus packages, many countries have focused on increasing expenditure on infrastructure. this cannot happen overnight. we have been fortunate that our infrastructural expenditure programme has been accelerating for the past few years, and has therefore come on stream at a time when it is most needed. this has been most fortuitous. anyone travelling on our national roads will have been frustrated by the inconvenience of the scale of the road upgrades, but we have to remember the positive side : that this infrastructural expenditure is helping to underpin domestic expenditure. furthermore, such expenditure will help to increase the potential output of the economy over time, and therefore raise the sustainable long term growth rate. according to national treasury estimates, public sector infrastructure expenditure is expected to average 9, 7 percent of gdp over the coming three fiscal years, compared to 4, 5 per cent in the 2005 / 6 fiscal year. during the current fiscal year, total expenditure by the sa national roads agency ltd ( sanral ) on roads is estimated at r19, 6 billion, compared to r2, 2 billion in 2005 / 06. i am sure your truck drivers will be pleased when all this construction is completed. 4. 8