free trade and flirting with protectionism. 3 future of international trade looking at the global landscape, positive economic data are not only coming from europe. for the first time since a brief surge in growth in 2010 we are experiencing a synchronised recovery that is taking place broadly across europe, the united states, as well as in china and emerging market economies. this synchronised recovery will support international trade and vice versa. at the same time, we have witnessed public attacks on international trade and the system that supports it, which is based on the free flow of goods and capital. protectionist sentiment in developed economies is rising. promises to cut back on free trade have resounded with voters in some developed countries. while it is still unclear what – if any – protectionist policies will actually be implemented and how they will affect international trade, it is clear that leaders in government and business have not been able to persuasively defend the virtues of free trade, and that the future of international trade will depend precisely on their ability to do just that. let me brief you about this discussion and the action that has to be taken. we have to adopt a stance that is both correct and compassionate. that is : restrictions on international trade will do much more harm than good and would be a historic mistake. and we must be compassionate : even though the reasoning of those who call for protectionism is ultimately wrong, we have to recognise that there are parts of society who believe international trade is responsible for taking away their jobs. 3. 1 is free trade useful? for a long time, the usefulness of international trade has been undisputed, and international policymakers have concentrated on ever - more detailed arrangements and standards. that is no longer the case anymore : the core of the international trade system is being questioned. protectionism is back, and even mercantilism, dead for centuries, has reared its ugly head again. in this context, i am convinced that this trend is leading us down the wrong path. the social and economic issues that countries across europe and around the world are facing are not at odds with the conventional wisdom regarding international trade, and they cannot be solved by falling 2 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches back into protectionism. what globalisation statistics show is that economic integration does indeed raise aggregate wealth. worldwide exports and imports have reached roughly 60 % of global gdp1, and there has been a surge in global economic integration in recent decades. at the same time

this sense, leaders in institutions, government, and business should not discount or oppose sensible measures in the field of regulations or social security, because these measures help defend the consensus that free trade is beneficial for us all. 3. 3 outlook for future free trade agreements at this point, and after so much gloom, it is time to not only talk about the threats to international trade but to share a few ideas about the opportunities opening up for trade. one development that is sure to gain in importance in the coming years and decades is trade not only in goods, but in services. historically, we have focused on trade in what are known as tradable, manufactured goods. but technology is continually expanding the range of tradable services. think about internet e - commerce platforms that can provide their distribution service from anywhere in the world, think about a professional consultant, a programmer or even a medical doctor, professionals who use modern technological tools of collaboration and communication and who can provide their services from anywhere in the world. in fact, we could very easily be holding our meeting today by video conference, although i myself very much prefer making and maintaining contacts on a personal basis. there will surely always be a need for personal dialogue. the planned trans - pacific partnership contained provisions that addressed the blurring between tradable goods and supposedly non - tradable services. even though the future of the treaty is currently uncertain, finding an international trade framework for digital goods and services will continue to be highly relevant. there are more examples of developments favourable to international trade. one such example is the trade facilitation agreement, which entered into force on 22 february 2017 after it was ratified by two - thirds of the world trade organization ’ s members. 9 another example is the ceta treaty between the european union and canada that is in the process of being ratified and adopted. 10 the “ one belt, one road ” initiative was promoted with much publicity at a summit in beijing just ten days ago. 11 while it remains to be seen whether the proposed project will meet european standards of fairness and transparency, it clearly shows that enthusiasm for international trade is far from dead. 4 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches 4 conclusion ladies and gentlemen, i have argued that even if international trade is far from dead, we can no longer take it for granted that the conditions and moods favouring international trade will prevail in the future. in europe and in other developed countries, there is an open discussion on the merits and draw