essentially at the level that many observers identify as the natural rate. this rate is very far from a bright line – it cannot be observed directly, and estimates of its level are subject to great uncertainty. 1 so we look to a wide range of labor market indicators to assess the overall health of the labor market. many of those indicators suggest that the labor market is strong. to mention a few of these, job openings are at an all - time high by some measures. the “ quits ” rate – the rate at which employees voluntarily leave their jobs – is about at pre - crisis levels. surveys of individuals and businesses suggest that the ease of finding and filling jobs is similar to that experienced in the mid - 2000s. even though we are near the natural rate of unemployment, there is still room for improvement on several margins. important among these is the labor force participation rate. if someone leaves the labor force for any reason, even temporarily, that person is not counted as unemployed. so the labor force participation rate is also a key determinant of the unemployment rate. labor force participation is influenced by many factors, including the age structure of the population and individuals ’ perceptions of the availability of jobs. bis central bankers ’ speeches participation rose steadily from the 1970s through the 1990s as increasing numbers of women entered the formal workforce. that process ran its course, and, around the year 2000, participation began a gradual decline because of population aging and the continuation of other long - term trends, particularly the decline in participation among prime age males. from 2008 through 2013, participation dropped sharply by 3 percentage points, but has remained about flat, on net, since late 2013 in a context of strong job growth and declining unemployment. economists estimate that, as the population ages, participation will naturally tend to decline at a trend rate of about 0. 2 percentage point per year, so this period of flat participation actually represents an improvement against the post - crisis cyclical drop. today, participation is near its longer - run trend as estimated by a group of fed economists whose work is widely cited on these issues. 2 some other estimates suggest that there is still a shortfall in participation, and, of course, estimates of the trend participation rate are surrounded by fairly wide bands of uncertainty. i am inclined to believe that there are potential workers at the margins of the labor market who will return as the recovery continues, the labor market tightens further and wages increase. the u. s. participation rate for workers in the 25 –

’ s population is not only large but also young with 55 % at less than 30 years old and becoming increasingly urbanized. there is also greater involvement of the private sector in the economy following the period of adjustment post - crisis. private investment which was initially slow to adjust has now shown prospects for a stronger recovery. the potential for greater investment is driven by the rising infrastructure requirements throughout the region that is estimated at usd 160 billion for the period 2006 - 2010. there has also been growing interest in resource - based industries. the investment climate has also improved amidst the better economic conditions and more efficient functioning systems that have been put in place. financial and corporate reforms and restructuring have supported these developments an area in which the payoff has been significant is the financial sector. the banking sectors in the asean region as a whole have increased their resilience and ability to manage risks as reflected by their profitability, asset quality and capitalization, all which have generally strengthened since the asian crisis. the renewed strength in the banking sectors have been underpinned by recapitalisation programmes, rationalization and consolidation and improvements in banking supervision and regulation. the implementation of financial reforms has not only increased the capacity but the resilience of the financial system. similarly, corporate balance sheets across the region have strengthened considerably with significantly improved standards of corporate governance. with the more positive investment climate, it has resulted in a resumption of investment activities. a major development since the crisis has been the development of the capital markets, in particular, the bond market. this has led to greater diversification of sources of financing for the corporate sector. in malaysia, the bond market now accounts for almost 90 % of gdp with the size of the corporate debt securities market now exceeding the public debt securities market. there has also been increased attention to greater financial inclusion, to reduce income disparities and achieve more balance growth. the stronger domestic financial sectors in the asean economies have also allowed for greater liberalization and deregulation to occur. this has not only enhanced the range of business opportunities for the financial institutions but also their potential to expand beyond domestic borders and building further on regional linkages. increased asian regional complementarities post - crisis, asean has further increased intra - regional trade and investment linkages within asean and with the other major economies in the region. intra - asian trade now accounts for more than half of the total trade of the region. the emergence of china and india has created new export markets for asean, thus divers