costs well in excess of their financial capacities. ultimately, they coped by resorting to external support. d ) the ‘ too big to fail ’ issue is especially pronounced in switzerland as i ’ ve mentioned, in switzerland, too, a package of state support measures for ubs in 2008 was unavoidable. the capital injection of around chf 6 billion from the confederation amounted to some 10 % of federal receipts, while the distressed assets of up to usd 60 billion that the snb was willing to take on represented some 10 % of gdp. 6 in its 2011 dispatch on the ‘ too big to fail ’ ( tbtf ) legislation, the federal council noted that this commitment was associated with considerable risks for taxpayers, and that future rescue packages might not be financially sustainable for switzerland. 7 this is because the ‘ too big to fail ’ issue is especially pronounced here in switzerland. the two big banks, ubs and credit suisse, have very large balance sheets relative to gdp, owing to their substantial international activities ( cf. slide 3 ). at the same time, they also have a significant market share of domestic lending and deposit business, and are major players in the area of payment transactions. moreover, in an international comparison, three other banks which have been designated as systemically important by the snb – postfinance, raiffeisen group and zurcher kantonalbank – also have very large balance sheets relative to gdp. for example, raiffeisen and zkb relative to swiss gdp are about double the size of the largest us banks relative to us gdp. 8 shortcomings in the tbtf regulations before the crisis ladies and gentlemen, the global financial crisis has clearly demonstrated that, not least for switzerland, the ‘ too big to fail ’ issue is real and the costs and risks for society as a whole are too high for this state of affairs to be simply accepted. cf. horton et al. ( 2009 ). cf. swiss national bank ( 2008 ). cf. swiss federal council ( 2011 ). share of balance sheet total relative to swiss and us gdp respectively at end - 2017 : zkb 25 % ; raiffeisen 34 % ; ubs 138 % ; credit suisse 112 % ; jpmorgan chase 13 % ; bank of america 12 %. page 5 / 14 a ) ‘ too big to fail ’ issue : recognised but insufficiently addressed by regulation... looking back today, it is clear that this issue was underestimated

. in order to solve this problem, enhancing supply capacity through business fixed investment is essential, and this will likely take some time. in particular, supply and demand conditions of semiconductors have been tighter than ever because of the existing trend of acceleration in digitalization, as seen in the spread of 5g networks and electrification of vehicles, and because of an expansion in online demand due to the outbreak of the pandemic. therefore, a possible recovery in production might be hampered by shortages of parts such as semiconductors. besides parts shortages, various supply - side constraints have emerged on a global basis. these include stagnation of logistical services, such as shipping, and labor shortage in the united states, for example. as the impact of covid - 19 wanes, the demand imbalance and bottlenecks on the production and logistics sides are likely to essentially head toward a resolution. that said, it is necessary to carefully examine the extent to which supply - side constraints will remain. the third factor concerns developments in overseas economies. supported by aggressive macroeconomic policies taken in advanced economies, overseas economies are likely to continue recovering steadily on the whole, albeit with variation across countries and regions. that said, relatively high inflation has continued in the united states and europe for longer than initially expected, and market participants are speculating that central banks in those economies might reduce monetary accommodation earlier than expected. in the latest world economic outlook, the international monetary fund ( imf ) warns that " great uncertainty surrounds inflation prospects. " in addition to the debt problems in the real estate sector, the chinese economy entails a risk of a decline in medium - to long - term growth potential. these developments should be monitored, as they could affect global financial markets, for example, and in turn weigh on overseas economies. in addition, let me touch on the impact of a rise in commodity prices as a risk related to overseas economies ( chart 5 ). prices of a wide range of commodities, such as crude oil, natural gas, and copper, have increased clearly of late. in the meantime, the depreciation of the yen has also pushed up commodity prices in yen terms. since japan depends heavily on imported resources, the rise in commodity prices in itself means an outflow of income to resource - exporting countries. however, this is only one aspect of the impact of the rise in commodity prices. in order to examine the impact on japan's economy as a whole, it is important to also take into account