non - deliverable forward exchange rate, which tracked each other very closely until the end of 1998, when they began to diverge. the decoupling suggests that the market has drawn the obvious conclusion from the fact that, since the linked exchange rate was introduced in 1983, the renminbi has depreciated by more than 70 %, while, during the same period, the hong kong dollar has remained rock solid. and this was confirmed by the calmness with which the market took the raising of the possibility of greater flexibility for the renminbi exchange rate by premier zhu. our own study further suggests that, contrary to popular intuition, a devaluation of the renminbi might actually provide a stimulus to the hong kong economy : this is because the positive impact on demand arising from the complementarities between the two economies would outweigh the negative impact of any loss of competitiveness in those relatively few activities where the two economies remain in competition with each other. such complementarities are in part reflected in hong kong ’ s role as a major entrepot for mainland exports. for any renminbi devaluation, while hong kong ’ s own direct trade balance with the mainland will deteriorate, our re - exports of mainland origin should rise. indeed, with the surge in mainland re - exports activities since the early 1980s, the margins earned on such re - exports are now larger than all other components of hong kong ’ s trade with the mainland combined. conclusion i have suggested in this address that china ’ s accession to the wto will bring benefits to hong kong on a number of fronts. wto entry will see a vast and rapid increase in china ’ s external trade. not all of this additional trade will go through hong kong, but nor will it all avoid hong kong. more important still, the stimulus to liberalisation, globalisation and better corporate governance will expand and deepen hong kong ’ s well - established role as a fund of professional expertise, a centre of international experience and a source and channel of investment. hong kong ’ s banking sector, with its strong reputation and long involvement in mainland business, stands to benefit greatly from the liberalisation in this area, providing that it can position itself to make the best out of the opportunities. in the monetary sphere, the various predictions about the future development of the renminbi in the light of wto membership - which include the possibility of greater exchange rate flexibility - would most likely have positive implications

, of course, much still to be done on these subjects. i understand that the discussions over the past few days have been lively and, at times, quite passionate. there is, i think, one main reason for this - and it is the same reason why this meeting has attracted such an excellent attendance. central bank governance is a field in which great change is taking place. a number of drivers are forcing this change. they include the quest for efficiency and greater effectiveness ; the lessons learned from crises ; political pressure - and its converse political opportunity ; and what has from time to time been referred to as “ fashion ” but which i think can be more generously described as best practice. we have heard many times these last few days the familiar disclaimer that there is no “ one model that fits all ”. many of you have stressed the uniqueness of your governance arrangements only to be reminded subsequently that these are arrangements familiar to one, two or even several other central banks. the modesty and diffidence with which experiences have been described is, of course, to be expected among central bankers. but there is, i think, a very pleasing mismatch between this and the enthusiasm with which all of us have been drinking up information about each other. this demonstrates that the bis network is far more than an academic exercise. it also reflects an important truth : that, although our economic and political environments may differ widely, although we may pursue different policies and follow different legal structures, we all face a number of constants. finance, money and banking behave in very similar ways no matter where we find ourselves, the more so with globalisation and liberalisation of markets. politicians and the media the world over have the same qualities and the same vices. and so for that matter do central bankers. the human factor, which is at the root of all of our discussion on governance, is universal. for this reason, while we must continue to work on the principle that “ no single model fits all ”, there is much that we can learn from each other, and this process of fruitful exchange will, i am sure, continue long into the future. i congratulate all of you on the excellent discussions you have had, and the bis for organising such a productive meeting. and i wish you all a very pleasant time in your well - earned relaxation this afternoon.