, the real gdp growth rate is currently projected to reach 2. 7 percent ( 2. 8 percent in the july assessment ) in fiscal 2013, 1. 5 percent ( 1. 3 percent ) in fiscal 2014, and 1. 5 percent ( 1. 5 percent ) in fiscal 2015 ( chart 1 ). my view is more or less in line with this baseline scenario. to highlight some differences, however, my baseline projections of the real gdp growth rates for fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015 are somewhat lower than the median of the forecasts. this relatively conservative outlook has remained unchanged since the time of assessment in april ( when the april 2013 outlook report was released ) and july this year. the main reason i have maintained this outlook is that while the additional economic measures to be introduced by the government will likely raise the economic growth rates for fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015, i believe that at present this positive effect may be offset by other countervailing factors – namely, the moderate recovery pace of real exports and industrial production. indeed, the actual export performance has been unimpressive so far ( chart 2 ) ; and, i judged that the outlook for real exports and industrial production should be adjusted downward to some extent as well. a look at developments in overseas economies shows that the economic growth landscape has changed drastically this year. in other words, the growth dynamic has been reversed, and emerging and commodity - exporting economies are losing momentum while advanced economies are improving. this dynamic is likely to continue since the pace of increase in the economic growth rate is likely to be faster in advanced economies than in emerging and commodity - exporting economies in the future. however, the recovery path in the advanced economies is neither robust nor strong, since their output gaps are likely to remain negative throughout the projection period. 1 although the the imf ’ s world economic outlook ( october 2013 ) reports that the real gdp growth rate for advanced economies is projected to reach 1. 2 percent in 2013, 2. 0 percent in 2014, and 2. 5 percent in 2015. that for emerging economies and developing countries is projected to reach 4. 5 percent, 5. 1 percent, and 5. 3 percent, respectively. the output gap, whose projection is available for advanced economies up to 2014, is reported to be minus 2. 9 percent in 2013 and 2. 5 percent in 2014. the oecd economic outlook ( november 2013 ) reports that the output gap for the oecd economies is projected to be minus 2. 6

##suading market participants. schelling once noted that " to communicate a commitment requires more than the communication of words... one has to communicate borio and filardo ( 2007 ) argue that the changes in gdp gap in foreign countries make the slope of the aggregate supply function flatter, while a study by staff of the federal reserve does not support the evidence on the effect of globalization ( ihrig, kamin, lindner, marquez ( 2007 ) ). we need to collect more microeconomic empirical evidence in assessing the price setting behavior of japanese firms, including the issue as to whether calvo - type or taylor - type staggered price adjustments are made. evidence that commitment exits ". it is important to implement monetary actions in a consistent manner based on the fundamental framework notably under the circumstances of imperfect public information. conclusion 16. the new policy framework of the boj has improved both transparency and flexibility. there is room for further improvement in transparency and communication policy. yet, we should be mindful of the limits of our knowledge and of transparency, as well as of the liability to distortion of communication in the process of consensus formation on decision making. references [ 1 ] bernanke, b. s., " the logic of monetary policy, " remarks before the national economists club, december 2004. [ 2 ] borio, c., and a. filardo, " globalisation and inflation : new cross - country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation, " working papers no. 227, bank for international settlements, 2007. [ 3 ] habermas, j., " between facts and norms : contribution to a discourse theory of law and democracy, " mit press, 1992. [ 4 ] ihrig, j., kamin, s. b., lindner, d., and j. marquez, " some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis, " international finance discussion papers, no. 891, federal reserve board, april 2007. [ 5 ] iwata, k., " the role of the price stability anchor in extricating japan from deflation, " at the symposium sponsored by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, august 2005. [ 6 ] iwata, k., " housing and monetary policy in japan, " at the symposium sponsored by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, september 2007. [ 7 ] morris, s., and h. s. shin, "