?, national bank of romania, macroeconomic modelling and forecasting department, bucharest university of economic studies ; basten, c. ( 2006 ) : business cycle synchronisation in the euro area : developments, determinants and implications, working paper series, research notes 22, deutsche bank research ; stremmel, h. ( 2015 ) : capturing the financial cycle in europe, working paper series, no. 1811 / june 2015, european central bank ; sybille, l. ( 2012 ) : has the euro changed business cycle synchronization? evidence from the core and the periphery, ifo working paper no. 122 ( www. cesifogroup. de ) ; gouveia, s. and correia, l. ( * * * ) : some facts about business cycles synchronisation across the euro area countries : the case of small countries, centre for transdisciplinary development studies ( cetrad ), department of economics, sociology and management ( desg ), university of tras - os - montes and alto douro ( utad ), portugal. bis central bankers ’ speeches brought cycles together, although a few efficient and credible shock absorbers were devised at the eve of the euro. further on, there is some evidence on the increasing correlation between real cycles and financial cycles across different groups of eu member states, as provided by meller and metiu ( 2015 ) 5. such a pattern emerges regardless of different sources and well - documented differences in frequencies and amplitudes between real and financial cycles. moreover, researchers from the bank for international settlements have shown that the correlation between real and financial cycles gets stronger over time as the duration and amplitude of financial cycles increases. the main explanation for the increasing correlation between the real and financial cycle is the so - called “ unfinished recession ” phenomenon, according to which globalization and a more activist monetary policy, which fails to take into account the state of the financial cycle, eventually cause a bigger recession down the road 6. we are left with two more interesting features of cyclical ( co ) movements. the degree to which real and financial cycles converge across groups of member states is neither constant, nor does it increase in linear fashion over time. all the previously described processes might deliver the periods of high synchronisation, followed by rapidly collapsing convergence. finally, the ( in ) famous duality between the core and the peripheral countries emerges as a theme here as well, as country groups

is expected to average 4. 6 % in 2023, which is higher than foreseen in the december projections. subsequently, it is projected to come down to 2. 5 % in 2024 and 2. 2 % in 2025, as the upward pressures from past supply shocks and the reopening of the economy fade out and as tighter monetary policy increasingly dampens demand. as inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, the governing council last week decided to increase the three key ecb interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with our determination to ensure the timely return of inflation to our 2 % medium - term target. the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data - dependent approach to our policy rate decisions, which will be determined by our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. the key ecb interest rates remain our primary tool for setting the monetary policy stance. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches the reduction of the asset purchase programme ( app ) portfolio – the second topic for today's hearing – is part of our monetary policy normalisation. as of the beginning of this month, the app portfolio has been declining at a measured and predictable pace of €15 billion per month on average and will continue to do so until the end of june 2023. the subsequent pace will be determined over time and the governing council will regularly reassess the pace to ensure it remains consistent with the overall monetary policy strategy and stance, to preserve market functioning and to maintain firm control over short - term money market conditions. conclusion let me now conclude. with war in europe and high inflation requiring immediate action, policymakers may be inclined to divert their attention from long - term challenges – but we must all strive to keep up our efforts to address the existential crisis of climate change. for us at the ecb, this means continuing to make progress on our climate roadmap. 2 this week we will publish the first climate - related financial disclosures of the eurosystem's corporate sector assets held for monetary policy purposes, and of the ecb's own funds and the staff pension fund. we will be joined in the coming weeks by all eurosystem central banks, which will disclose climate information on their own eurodenominated non - monetary policy portfolios. besides helping us be more transparent about our climate impact, these disclosures