six months of the life of the ecb and the transition from the emi will be released to the media on thursday 15 april 1999. it was also agreed to release the ecb ’ s first monthly bulletin on tuesday 19 january 1999. – 5 – swap agreements with the federal reserve system and norges bank the governing council took the opportunity of the forthcoming introduction of the euro on 1 january 1999 to review and adjust existing swap agreements between euro area central banks on the one hand and the federal reserve system and norges bank on the other. first, the governing council jointly agreed with the federal reserve system that the existing bilateral agreements of six euro area national central banks – the central banks of belgium, germany, france, italy, the netherlands and austria – with the federal reserve system will be allowed to lapse as they expire. second, the current swap agreements between euro area national central banks and norges bank will be replaced by a new swap agreement between the ecb and norges bank amounting to euro 1, 535 million as from 1 january 1999. ecb budget for 1999 the governing council approved the ecb ’ s budget for 1999, which gives the ecb the green light to recruit around 150 additional staff ( both permanent and temporary ) needed to support the new operational activities which the ecb will take on from 1 january 1999. this will bring the ecb ’ s permanent staff to around 700, with nearly 50 limited contract staff. * * *

it is an encouraging signal that financial market participants are apparently prepared to attribute a credibility bonus to our stability - oriented monetary policy shortly before its official start. at the current juncture, the outlook for the euro area economy is still very much influenced by the uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the world economy in 1999. these uncertainties have negatively affected indicators of industrial confidence in the euro area and have fuelled expectations of a slowdown in economic activity in the short term. very recently, a first estimate of real gdp – 3 – growth in the euro area in the third quarter of 1998 has been released by eurostat, suggesting a growth rate of 2. 4 % against the third quarter of 1997. this would be around one - half of a percentage point lower than the average growth rate of 3 % in the first half of 1998, compared with the first half of 1997. other indicators of real activity were mixed up to november. while order books and capacity utilisation point to a less optimistic assessment of growth prospects, consumer confidence remained high and retail sales continued to increase at a broadly stable pace up to september, i. e. the latest month for which data are available. also, the decline in unemployment, after pausing in the summer months, resumed, with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 10. 9 % in september to 10. 8 % in october. the factors underpinning the currently low increases in the hicp continued to include falling energy prices, downward movements in producer prices, subdued wage growth and slight decreases in unit labour costs. on balance, the overall environment described above does not point to significant upward or downward pressure on prices in the short term, as also reflected in all available forecasts for 1999. nevertheless, factors contributing to risks to price stability on both sides need to be taken into account. on the one hand, downward risks relate to the global environment and potential repercussions on the euro area, for example via import prices and further pressure on producer prices. these developments will be monitored closely. on the other hand, unexpected upward pressure on wages and a relaxation of the fiscal stance would clearly alter the general environment. therefore, we will also carefully monitor the outcome of ongoing wage rounds, the plans for fiscal policy in 1999 and over the medium term, as well as their implementation towards compliance with the stability and growth pact. in conclusion, the actual situation, characterised by monetary growth compatible with continued price stability and the absence of immediate upward or downward pressure on prices, justifies