world of integrated capital markets one may also have good reason to argue the other way round. why are long - term capital flows, driven by perceived rates of capital productivity, less " real and fundamental " than trade flows? would it not also be possible to argue - based on recent experience - that capital flows to the united states were, for a long time, the fundamental causative change which effected - as a consequence - the deterioration in the current account? be that as it may, traders, investors and central bankers would be well advised to accept the fact, and be prepared for it, that in the short - and medium - term surprises are always possible in the forex markets. this was so in the past and will continue to be so in the future. smallness and connectedness : some facts let me now talk about the sfr, about its main features as a currency which is traded and held in international portfolios. the sfr plays a minor part on the stage of the global currency game - it is a dwarf among giants, so to speak. its position may be described by means of three indicators. first, by the sfr's share in the global turnover in foreign exchange trading. volume composition in forex ( daily foreign - exchange transactions, $ billion tradi ng wi t h ot her currenci es tradi ng wi t h us dol lar £ y dm aud ffr chf this chart is based on data collected by the bis in 1998, i. e. during the period prior to the introduction of the euro. the columns illustrate the composition of an average daily volume of approximately 1. 5 trillion usd by currencies. the usd clearly predominates. this is shown by the size of the lower areas, which represent the respective trading volume vis - a - vis the usd. it seems very likely that the advent of the euro has not significantly changed the pre - eminence of the dollar. the new figures to be expected this year will be instructive in this regard. the sfr accounted for usd 100 billion, i. e. approximately 7 % of the total daily volume in 1998. this may seem modest, but relative to the size of our economy it is a very respectable figure. the swiss franc is trading currency number 5, ranging behind the big three and sterling, but well ahead of the currencies of much larger countries like australia and canada. economically more important than the

is needed between, on the one hand, inclusive rules and institutions, and, on the other, compensatory transfers. both must be constantly calibrated, given that o the destructive power of each shock depends on its intensity and duration, and o there will always be a shock that no rule or institution may ever prevent – and that is technological innovation. the most effective strategy to overcome the challenges posed by technological innovation consists of ensuring an inclusive growth of potential output. this means promoting the sustainable growth of gdp per capita while simultaneously involving all the communities and classes of the working age population in the production process. entrepreneurs and managers are particularly prominent actors in such a strategy. so, let me stop here, and congratulate the bank for its increasingly relevant mission, and for bringing us together today to reflect on it. thank you. www. bportugal. pt bibliography : alexandre, fernando, helder costa, miguel portela, miguel rodrigues ( 2018 ), asymmetric regional dynamics : from bust to recovery, working paper series, nipe, universidade do minho amador, joao ( 2017 ), portugal e o comercio internacional, essays series, francisco manuel dos santos foundation associacao empresarial de portugal ( 2019 ), dinamicas socioeconomicas regionais, aep estudos e estrategia baldwin, richard ( 2016 ), the great convergence : information technology and the new globalization, harvard university press coady, david and allan dizioli ( 2018 ), income inequality and education revisited : persistence, endogeneity and heterogeneity, applied economics, vol. 50, no. 25, pp. 2747 – 61 de mello, luiz, dutz, mark a. ( 2012 ), promoting inclusive growth : challenges and policies, paris : oecd and the world bank farole, t., m. roberts, j. park, and c. hooton ( 2018 ), assessing the economic potential of europe ’ s regions, washington, dc : world bank gill, indermit s., raiser, martin ( 2012 ), golden growth : restoring the lustre of the european economic model ( vol. 2 ) : main report ( english ), europe and central asia studies, washington dc, world bank. international monetary fund ( 2017a ), government finance statistics yearbook, 2016, vol. 40, international monetary fund, washington d. c. (