continue longer than i had earlier anticipated due to the persistent strength of the dollar and weakness in energy prices. however, i continue to expect a gradual return to our 2 percent objective as the transitory factors that have held down inflation dissipate. in assessing the current state of the u. s. economy, there are divergent signals, with weakness in some spending and production indicators, but robustness in a number of labor market indicators. in the fourth quarter, investment spending for both equipment and structures fell, and net exports and inventory investment were drags on growth. these developments partly reflect the slowing of global growth and the impact of the dollar ’ s appreciation since mid - 2014. this weakness has been particularly evident in u. s. manufacturing. however, the latest ism non - manufacturing index suggests the possibility of a slower pace of growth also in the matthew higgins, jonathan mccarthy, paolo pesenti and joseph tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. bis central bankers ’ speeches services sector, which has been relatively robust. consumer spending growth – which had been a brighter spot for most of 2015 – also slowed notably in the fourth quarter. in contrast, the u. s. labor market has remained healthy and supportive of growth. over the course of 2015, payroll employment increased an average of about 228, 000 per month. although the january increase of 151, 000 was below last year ’ s pace, other aspects of the report were strong. the january data indicated substantial gains in wages and hours worked, which implies healthy real income growth for the household sector. moreover, the amount of slack in the labor market continues to diminish based on a number of measures. the unemployment rate declined to 4. 9 percent. this was accompanied by further declines in both the share of people working part - time that would like full - time work, as well as the share of people not part of the labor force. consistent with a tighter labor market, the share of the working - age population that is employed has risen gradually, and the labor force participation rate has stabilized. while the weakness in some indicators has led me to make small reductions in my forecast, my overall outlook has not changed substantially. in making this determination, a central question is how to reconcile these cross - currents. one has to also factor in that the real gdp growth rate in the fourth quarter was only 1. 0 percent and the four - quarter change was 1. 9 percent – low even by the subdued standards of this expansion. it

banks that has gradually been built up, the banque de france and the bank of japan, in parallel, have been regional pivots of the central bank function. after the second world war in particular, our two institutions favoured co - operation with the central banks of economic regions undergoing reconstruction and newly emerging markets. finally, during the twentieth century, we carved out a place for ourselves in the world by adapting to the new international functions : the more dynamic the international markets were, like in the 1920s and in stages from the 1960s onwards, the more our two banks ’ international functions developed. this morning ’ s session, concerning the history of our economies and institutions, will enable us to shed light on all these aspects. the afternoon ’ s session will focus on developments in our economies and institutions in an increasingly globalised world. globalisation is not a new phenomenon. the past 150 years of diplomatic and economic relations between our two countries are proof of this. however, the scope and the speed of the current stage of globalisation have far outstripped anything experienced in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. in a globalised world, the french and japanese economies have found themselves in very different environments, with france and germany leading a very structured regional institutional construction with the european union, first in terms of trade, then at an economic and monetary level, while japan has been the economic leader of a de facto integrated area, with remarkable dynamism thanks to its productive, capacity and technological investment. growth of international capital flows has resulted from domestic policies and global factors, such as the increasing interdependence of economies. the french and japanese economies have benefited from this while experiencing an unprecedented boom in technical progress and productivity growth, mainly as a result of considerable investment in information and communication technologies. thanks to technological progress and financial globalisation, the efficiency of financial markets has strengthened over the decades. cross - border links between markets are closer than ever, yet the current crisis is revealing the persistent nature of the risks to financial stability. thus, the existence of trust - based relationships built on long - standing mutual experience is a particularly strong asset for central banks to help them respond to uncertainty. their network can enable them to find ad hoc solutions such as those adopted in a concerted and co - ordinated manner in december to facilitate market liquidity during a period of great uncertainty. relations between the banque de france and the bank of japan are particularly valuable in the analysis, comparison and understanding of differences in of