##3. results of the bsp ’ s survey of private sector economists showed their mean inflation forecast at 4. 4 percent for 2021. most economists saw the risks to the inflation outlook for 2021 as tilted to the upside due to persistent supply disruptions and rising global oil prices. nevertheless, for 2022 and 2023, economists expect inflation settling within target at 3. 5 and 3. 1 percent, respectively. liquidity in the financial system remains ample. domestic liquidity expanded by 8. 3 percent year1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches on - year to p14. 8 trillion in november 2021, extending an uptrend since july. as i mentioned, the various liquidity - easing measures of bsp have injected some 2. 3 trillion pesos into the financial system, the equivalent of 12. 5 percent of gdp. meanwhile, outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of reverse repurchase placements with the bsp, increased at a faster rate of 3. 5 percent year - on - year in october from 2. 7 percent in september. the continued recovery in bank lending activity reflects the sustained expansion in business activity amid easing quarantine restrictions, declining covid - 19 cases, and increased vaccinations. the country ’ s external sector continues to provide sufficient buffers to ward off the potential adverse effects of external headwinds. our gross international reserves, which stood at us $ 107. 7 billion as of end - november 2021, continue to provide ample cushion against unforeseen demand for foreign exchange liquidity. this is equivalent to 10. 2 months ’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. it is also about six to nine times the country ’ s short - term external debt, based on residual and original maturity, respectively. amid the strong rebound in external demand in key trade partners, the country ’ s exports of goods increased by 16 percent in january to september 2021. meanwhile, following the gradual resumption of domestic economic activities and restocking of inventories, imports of goods grew at a much faster rate of 30. 2 percent in the same period. this resulted in a wider trade deficit of us $ 36. 6 billion and has caused the overall balance of payments ’ position to the reversal of the deficit of us $ 665 million in the first nine months of 2021, from a us $ 6. 9 billion surplus in the same period last year. the country ’ s external sector remains supported by

system, robust external payments position, and a manageable fiscal deficit. the philippine economy has the essential elements to post a strong recovery this year. moving forward, the bsp ’ s actions and policy thrust will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches the bsp will remain vigilant over the current inflation dynamics and operating environment with a forward - looking perspective to ensure that the monetary policy stance supports economic recovery and addresses any risks to our price stability mandate. it addition, bsp will intensify its monitoring and surveillance over its supervised institutions to ensure that they remain responsive to emerging risks and to promote the continued soundness, stability, resilience, and inclusivity of the banking system. lastly, the bsp will continue to adopt policies that will strengthen the economy ’ s resilience to external shocks. these will include maintaining a market - determined exchange rate, sustaining a comfortable level of reserves, and keeping the country ’ s external debt manageable. i said this before, and i ’ ll say it again : we should not let this unprecedented crisis go to waste. let us learn from it. let us all continue to discover and tap into our inner strengths. our shared fortitude as a nation will enable us to withstand all adversities and come out of this pandemic as economic champions. may our award - winning members never tire of leading the capital market in conceptualizing and implementing new and bold strategies for the industry and for our country. continue to reform, innovate, and transform. again, congratulations to our awardees and to the pds group. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches