years. in fact, spanish data in may showed unemployment falling to just under 20 per cent for the first time since the global financial crisis. in south africa, no such improvement is being forecast. in fact, the imf numbers show our unemployment deteriorating, from about 25 per cent now to around 27 per cent in three years ’ time. over the past five years, average wages and salaries have consistently outpaced inflation. from 2011 to 2015, annual headline inflation stood at 5 per cent, 5, 7 per cent, 5, 8 per cent, 6, 1 per cent and 4, 6 per cent. average wages and salaries, by contrast, grew by 7, 6 per cent, 7, 5 per cent, 9, 3 per cent, 7, 7 per cent and 8, 5 per cent over the same period. employment growth has slowed every year from 2011 to 2015. the other two are bosnia and herzegovina as well as the former yugoslav republic of macedonia. these are more complicated cases than greece or spain, but both were affected by the violent breakup of yugoslavia and the loss of historical markets. bis central bankers ’ speeches it is quite extraordinary for unemployment to remain so high throughout an economic cycle. compare south africa with brazil, a country similar in many ways. when brazil ’ s economy boomed, unemployment fell to below 5 per cent. since then, brazil has fallen into a deep recession, with growth close to minus 4 per cent in each of the past two years, the worst performance in a century, including the great depression. unemployment has more than doubled ; it is now over 10 per cent. this is a terrible economic experience. but if we could get unemployment in south africa to 10 per cent, that would be viewed as a tremendous success. there isn ’ t much to envy about brazil ’ s economy these days, but i would happily take their unemployment rates. many observers look at south africa ’ s levels of joblessness and reflexively describe them as unsustainable. but they have persisted for around two decades, so it is a bold prediction to say that they cannot continue. a better interpretation is that we have very unusual, even unnatural, labour market dynamics. this implies that we have vast scope for improvement. almost every other country has a larger share of its people in work – and most have a larger share participating in the workforce. the national development plan sets unemployment goals of 14 per cent by 2020 and 6 per cent by 2030. for labour force participation rates

joseph yam : the wto - china ’ s future and hong kong ’ s opportunity speech by mr joseph yam, jp, chief executive of the hong kong monetary authority, at a conference co - sponsored by the cato institute and the hong kong centre for economic research on “ globalisation, the wto, and capital flows - hong kong ’ s legacy, china ’ s future ”, held in hong kong, on 4 september 2000. * * * i feel honoured to be invited to deliver the keynote address at today ’ s conference on the implications of china ’ s prospective entry into the world trade organisation ( wto ). this is a timely conference for, although the arrangements for china ’ s entry into the wto are not yet signed and sealed, it looks very likely that they will be agreed soon. the cato institute takes a special interest in the relationship between economic change and government policy throughout the world, and it is appropriate that it should be following this historic event closely. the hong kong centre for economic research - now, i note, more than 20 years old - has established a solid reputation for independent research into public policy and economic affairs : it is therefore well positioned to provide the hong kong and regional perspective. it also seems right to me - despite the heavy rainfall we ’ ve been having this summer - that hong kong should be the venue for this conference. the reasons, i hope, will become clear in this address. on behalf of the hong kong sar government, i extend a warm welcome to all of you who are visiting hong kong from overseas, particularly those who are here for the first time : i hope that this will be an enjoyable and memorable stay. the broad implications of china ’ s accession to the wto what will china ’ s accession to the wto mean for china and the rest of the world? for china - which is already the world ’ s ninth largest trading entity - it will mean more external trade, and external trade of a better quality. there will be substantial tariff reductions among china ’ s existing trading partners and there will be access to more trading partners for china. at the same time, china will be cutting its tariffs on a broad range of products, from agricultural to industrial. tariff reductions allow comparative advantage greater play. they will help eliminate trade distortions and facilitate more efficient allocation of resources among the trading partners, thus further promoting economic growth globally. the world bank ’ s estimates give an indication of the growth potential of china ’ s