manufacturing pmi global growth rate ( imf projections ) s. a., di. global economy advanced economies emerging and commodity - exporting economies 6. 0 y / y % chg. 5. 5 5. 0 2020 : + 3. 4 % 4. 5 2018 : + 3. 6 % 4. 0 3. 5 3. 0 2. 5 1. 5 2019 : + 3. 0 % average from 1980 through 2018 : + 3. 5 % 2. 0 projections 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 cy12 - 0. 5 cy 00 notes : 1. in the left chart, figures for the global economy are the " j. p. morgan global manufacturing pmi. " figures for advanced economies as well as emerging and commodityexporting economies are calculated as the weighted averages of the manufacturing pmi using gdp shares of world total gdp from the imf as weights. advanced economies consist of the united states, the euro area, the united kingdom, and japan. emerging and commodity - exporting economies consist of 17 countries and regions, such as china, south korea, taiwan, russia, and brazil. notes : 2. in the right chart, figures for 2019 and 2020 are the imf's projections as of october 2019. sources : ihs markit ( © and database right ihs markit ltd 2019. all rights reserved. ) ; imf, etc. chart 2 i. economic developments world semiconductor shipments s. a., q / q % chg. - 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 cy 00 note : figures are based on staff estimates using wsts data. chart 3 i. economic developments exports, production, and business sentiment exports and production business conditions di ( tankan ) 115 s. a., 2012 / q1 = 100 di ( " favorable " - " unfavorable " ), % points real exports manufacturing nonmanufacturing production - 5 - 10 - 15 cy 12 - 20 cy 12 sources : ministry of finance ; ministry of economy, trade and industry ; bank of japan. chart 4 i. economic developments business fixed investment business fixed investment plans ( tankan ) y / y % chg. software investment ( tankan ) fy 2005 = 100 all industries construction retailing accommodations, eating & drinking services fy 2019 fy 2018 fy 05 average ( fy 2004 - 2018 ) y / y % chg. r & d expenditure manufacturing transport equipment chemicals -

been high, particularly in straight bonds. growth in monetary aggregates in terms of m2 + cds year - to - year average outstanding has continued at around 3. 0 per cent. 3. looking at individual components of final demand, public - sector investment will be supported by implementation of public works included in the government ’ s supplementary budget for fiscal 1996 for the time being, but it is expected to follow a declining trend. net exports, on the other hand, are likely to continue to be steady even after the recent large increase. this reflects the robust increase in overseas demand, and the recovery in the price competitiveness of japan ’ s manufacturing industry supported by the yen ’ s depreciation until early spring. in these circumstances, corporate profits on the whole are expected to continue improving in fiscal 1997 although with varied strength across sectors. business fixed investment is also expected to continue increasing, mainly reflecting 1 ) increases in corporate profits, 2 ) further progress in capital stock adjustments, and 3 ) the rise in information - related investment. however, because of the remaining balance - sheet adjustment pressures and the absence of leading industries, the increase in business fixed investment is unlikely to gather significant momentum for the time being. the growth in the employees ’ income has been rising gradually owing to the increase in bonus payments and the moderate recovery in employment growth, reflecting the improvement in the labor market conditions. this shows that the recovery in the business sector has spread to the household sector. thus, recovery in personal consumption is expected to continue after the reaction to the rise in demand ahead of the consumption tax hike subsides in the near future. however, the pace of recovery is likely to be moderate considering the increases in the tax burden, such as the rise in the consumption tax. meanwhile, housing investment, which is in a generally favorable environment including low interest rates, is expected to recover somewhat in the second half of fiscal 1997, although it has recently been weak reflecting the reaction to the surge in demand ahead of the consumption tax hike. 4. with respect to price developments, the downward pressure on domestic prices from the increase in manufactured imports has weakened, as the rise in import penetration rate has paused. on the other hand, the upward pressure on import costs from materials prices has also subsided owing to the decline in crude oil prices since spring 1997 and the appreciation of the yen. thus, import prices are not exerting significant upward nor downward pressure on domestic prices. meanwhile, final demand will continue to recover on the whole,