stronger than expected, which, combined with a lower exchange rate, helped too. the positive story for non - mining investment can be seen in this next graph, which shows the bank's successive forecasts over the years as well as the actual outcomes – the black line ( graph 5 ). for a number of years we were forecasting a lift in investment that did not come. during this period of flat business investment, glenn stevens gave speeches bemoaning the lack of animal spirits in the business community. but over the past couple of years, things finally turned around. the long - forecast pick - up in investment finally arrived and it has been stronger than expected. we expect this upswing in investment to continue for a while yet. 8 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches the fact that growth was stronger than expected is largely accounted for by a positive surprise on both mining and non - mining investment. the terms of trade were also stronger than expected, which, combined with a lower exchange rate, helped too. the positive story for non - mining investment can be seen in this next graph, which shows the bank's successive forecasts over the years as well as the actual outcomes – the black line ( graph 5 ). for a number of years we were forecasting a lift in investment that did not come. during this period of flat business investment, glenn stevens gave speeches bemoaning the lack of animal spirits in the business community. but over the past couple of years, things finally turned around. the long - forecast pick - up in investment finally arrived and it has been stronger than expected. we expect this upswing in investment to continue for a while yet. 9 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches in the context of its forecast evaluation, the board at its recent meeting also reviewed the various arguments that have been made by commentators for alternative courses of monetary policy. the timing of this review has no particular policy significance. it is good practice to consider the issues and arguments from all angles, and we do this as part of our regular processes. as you know, following its deliberations at the november meeting, the board again decided to maintain the cash rate at 1. 5 per cent, where it has been since august 2016. the central messages also remain the same. first, the economy is moving in the right direction and further progress is expected in lowering unemployment and having inflation consistent with the target. second, the probability of an increase in interest rates is higher than the probability

. growth this year and next is expected to exceed 3 per cent, before easing in 2020 as the boost from the large increase in liquefied natural gas exports tapers off. inflation is expected to pick up gradually, but to remain low. the graph also shows the range of uncertainty, based on historical experience. while the public focus is normally on the central scenario, it is important to recall that the range of possible outcomes is quite large. 6 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches as the minutes discuss, one of the current sources of uncertainty is the pace of growth in consumer spending. over the past couple of years, consumer spending has been growing reasonably firmly and faster than disposable income. our central scenario is for household spending to continue growing at around its current rate and for income growth to pick up to be in line with spending growth. but there are conflicting forces at work. the strong employment growth is positive for income and consumption growth. but working in the other direction are flat real wages at a time when debt levels are high and housing prices are falling in our largest cities. we are continuing to assess the balance of these forces. as we do this, we are watching the housing market closely. there has recently been considerable public attention paid to declining housing prices in sydney and melbourne. it is important to remember that these declines come after very large run - ups in housing prices in these two cities, which made purchasing a home difficult for a significant number of people ( graph 4 ). it is also worth pointing out that this adjustment is taking place against the backdrop of a strong world economy, a positive australian economy, low unemployment, low interest rates, strong population growth and only limited pockets of excess housing supply. this is a reasonably favourable backdrop against which to be having an adjustment in the housing market. but we do need to watch things closely. 7 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches the minutes also report that the board evaluated the forecasts made by the bank this time last year. the board does this type of evaluation exercise annually. over the past year, the economy performed more strongly than expected a year ago and the unemployment rate came down by more than expected. at the same time, though, the stronger growth and labour market did not translate into more inflation ; wages growth and inflation turned out to be pretty close to expectations. the fact that growth was stronger than expected is largely accounted for by a positive surprise on both mining and non - mining investment. the terms of trade were also