. in april, we calculated that the protraction of the conflict in ukraine could mean about 2 percentage points less growth overall, for this year and the next. the most recent forecasts of the main international organizations are similar. however, more adverse developments cannot be ruled out. if the war should lead to an interruption in the supply of gas from russia, gdp could decline on average over the two years. inflation reached 6. 8 per cent in march, its highest point since the start of the 1990s ; it fell by half a percentage point in april, thanks to the recent the governor ’ s concluding remarks annual report 2021 banca d ’ italia measures on fuel, electricity and gas. until now, there has been no sign of price pressures being transmitted to salaries, partly because of the characteristics of italy ’ s collective bargaining system, designed to limit the repercussions of increases in inflation due to energy shocks. other factors include the still incomplete recovery in terms of the number of hours worked, the reduction of profit margins observed in 2021, and the government measures to reduce the impact of the energy crisis on household and business incomes. the increase in imported commodity prices is an unavoidable tax for the country. government action can redistribute the effects of inflation between households, factors of production, and present and future generations, but it cannot wipe out the overall impact. as regards households, interventions calibrated according to their general economic condition rather than individual incomes are more effective in countering the repercussions of inflation on inequality. among other things, targeted measures enable the role of prices to be better preserved as an incentive to invest in renewable sources and to save energy. despite the deterioration of the economic outlook, the most recent assessments by the european commission indicate that the debt - to - gdp ratio will continue to decline both this year and the next. in the last few weeks, we have nevertheless observed an increase in the yield spread between italian government securities and the corresponding german bund which, for ten - year bonds, has repeatedly gone above 200 basis points. this sudden increase does not reflect any abrupt changes in the underlying economic conditions : the net international investment position is robust, italy ’ s producers are successfully competing on the outlet markets, and the level of household and business indebtedness is low by international standards. the increase does, however, call attention to the structural fragility represented by the high level of public debt ; it confirms the need to continue firmly

hub for us gas. figure 2 contributions to consumer price growth ( percentage changes and percentage points ) non - volale components −1 euro area food and energy −1 non - volale components −1 −1 united states food and energy sources : based on eurostat and u. s. bureau of labor statistics data. note : 12 - month percentage changes. banca d ’ italia the governor ’ s concluding remarks annual report 2021 figure 3 forecasts for consumer price growth in the euro area ( per cent ) consensus economics internaonal monetary fund sources : consensus economics and international monetary fund, april 2022. figure 4 wage growth ( percentage changes ) united states euro area sources : european central bank and u. s. bureau of labor statistics. note : annual percentage changes of quarterly data ; negotiated wages net of one - off payments for the euro area, and the employment cost index for the united states. the governor ’ s concluding remarks annual report 2021 banca d ’ italia figure 5 advanced and emerging economies : share of world gdp ( per cent ) advanced economies emerging economies of which : china source : based on international monetary fund data. figure 6 world population and per capita gdp ( 1990 = 100 ) per capita gdp populaon sources : based on world bank and maddison project data. banca d ’ italia the governor ’ s concluding remarks annual report 2021 figure 7 labour productivity in the private sector ( 1995 = 100 ) germany france euro area italy source : based on eurostat data. note : value added per hour worked, in real terms. figure 8 distribution of employment by firms ’ employee size class ( per cent ) france italy germany 0−9 10−19 20−49 50−249 250 + source : based on eurostat data. note : firms in the non - agricultural private sector, excluding financial firms and insurance companies. the governor ’ s concluding remarks annual report 2021 banca d ’ italia figure 9 difference between male and female activity rates ( percentage points ) italy european union germany france source : based on eurostat data. figure 10 capitalization and credit quality of italian banks ( per cent ) non - performing loans as a share of total loans ( right - hand scale ) common equity er 1 rao source : supervisory reports. note : non - performing loans as a share of total loans ( net of loan loss provisions ) ; end - of - year data ; the data for 2021 are provisional. banca d ’ italia the governor ’ s concluding remarks annual report 2021 figure 11