the federal reserve as lender of last resort. as a foundation for this discussion, i will briefly touch on a number of these challenges and issues. stigma a long - standing challenge to the utility of discount window borrowing is the perception of stigma. during times of stress, signs of banking sector weakness are often magnified through small and independent actions of institutions, which may add to the reluctance to borrow from the central bank when other sources may be available. the perception of stigma existed long before the new dodd - frank disclosure requirements, and it is possible that public disclosure of the borrowing — even with a two - year delay — may create a greater deterrent. regardless of the timing of the disclosure, the reality is that market participants have a strong interest in identifying any public signals of bank financial health, including discount window lending. even where the market is just making educated guesses about discount window lending ( for example, by looking at public - facing liquidity management activities of banking institutions ), the - 10 stigma risk can be an important consideration for banks trying to manage public perceptions of their financial condition. the federal reserve cannot entirely eliminate discount window borrowing stigma through regulatory fiat. one of the key sources of stigma seems to be the spectrum of reasons that a bank may choose to borrow from the discount window : the need for borrowing could be due to market disruptions in the provision of liquidity or a scarcity in the total amount of reserves in the banking system but could also indicate a specific borrower ’ s growing financial stress. of course, it is possible that a combination of factors may lead a bank to access the discount window — as stress on banking institutions builds, there may be a “ pullback ” on the ordinary liquidity tools banks use, accompanied by increased demands for liquidity. in this context, discount window lending becomes one additional data point for the market to interpret — while the signal it may send is unclear, one can easily imagine that the market may be skittish and fixate on any sign of financial weakness. the broader issue, however, is the health of the banking system and particular financial institutions, which can be affected by a number of other factors. for example, as we saw with svb, the public messaging around the sale of securities and the prospective capital raised were both public announcements that altered the perception of the institution ’ s financial health and risk profile. in short, while discount window “ stigma ” is an important issue, it is a subset of a broader concern —

price, which both help to dampen the inflation outlook. for 2013, we still anticipate inflation of – 0. 2 %. for 2014 and 2015, the inflation forecast is down in each case by 0. 1 percentage points and is now at 0. 2 % and 0. 6 % respectively. consequently, no inflation risks can be identified for switzerland in the foreseeable future. global economic outlook the snb ’ s inflation forecast is embedded in a global economic scenario. i would therefore like to begin with our assessment of the global economy. global economic recovery continued as expected in recent months, with the main drivers being the us, the uk and china. in the euro area, by contrast, growth lacked momentum and inflation slowed considerably more than expected. in many emerging economies, too, economic activity was rather sluggish. the outlook for the global economy has not changed significantly since the september monetary policy assessment. our forecasts suggest that growth will pick up gradually in the bis central bankers ’ speeches coming quarters. further recovery is likely to be underpinned by a number of factors, including stable international financial markets, a less restrictive fiscal policy and a very expansionary monetary policy in the major advanced economies. europe, however, will continue to experience below - average growth, with banks ’ restrained lending policies and ongoing uncertainty hampering investment activity. in addition, the high level of unemployment in this region will also hold back private consumption. uncertainty about the continued recovery of the global economy remains high overall. in many advanced economies, room for manoeuvre in economic policy is being constrained by the fact that interest rates are already very low and government indebtedness is high, making the global economy especially prone to shocks. we expect that the euro area will overcome the crisis in the medium term. however, the forthcoming assessment of banks ’ balance sheets could cause some ripples. furthermore, exiting from unconventional monetary policy measures is as yet uncharted territory. spikes on international financial markets therefore cannot be ruled out during the process of normalising monetary policy in the major currency areas. swiss economic outlook i will now look at economic developments in switzerland. the economy continued to develop favourably in the third quarter. annualised real gdp was up by slightly more than 2 %. unlike the previous quarter, goods exports grew substantially. domestic demand, however, lost some momentum. on the output side, manufacturing in particular recorded positive growth, having previously fallen for three successive quarters. construction continues to be