partners will, among other things, contribute to the growth in international reserves to about usd 35 billion as of the end of this year. this will strengthen the nbu's capability to further maintain exchange rate sustainability and gradually ease fx restrictions. as before, the key assumption of the forecast is that high security risks will persist until early 2024. the war continues. the key risk to this forecast is that the war lasts longer and is fiercer than anticipated. they could have a significant adverse effect on economic activity, while also worsening inflation and exchange rate expectations. this will pose additional challenges to the country's macrofinancial sustainability. the war is also generating other risks. they include : the emergence of additional budgetary needs and substantial quasi - fiscal deficits in the energy sector difficulties with, or the halt in, the operation of the " grain corridor " and greater problems arising from the limitations imposed on imports of ukrainian food by some european countries further damage inflicted on energy infrastructure, which could again cause substantial power shortages a slower decline in global inflation than expected. conversely, the rapid implementation of ukraine's recovery project, together with european integration reforms, could significantly accelerate the pace of economic growth. the arrival of substantial financing for recovery could also provide ukraine with greater opportunities for easing fx restrictions. taking into account the risks outlined above, high uncertainty, and a significant amount of expected budget expenditures, maintaining exchange rate sustainability amid a pursuit of currency liberalization plans will require the nbu to continue to take a monetary policy approach that makes hryvnia - denominated savings highly attractive. with this in mind, the nbu board decided to keep the key policy rate at 25 %. keeping the key policy rate at 25 %, introducing additional instruments for preventing household savings from being eroded away by inflation, coupled with measures to increase competition among the banks for time deposits, contributed to greater exchange rate sustainability. these same instruments boosted demand for hryvnia instruments, while cutting demand for fx. at the same time, exchange rate sustainability is primarily being ensured by tight currency restrictions. their effectiveness wanes over time, while their restrictive effect on business activity grows in intensity. it is therefore becoming increasingly desirable to liberalize fx restrictions in the foreseeable future. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches to this end, the nbu is making policy efforts to establish appropriate preconditions for an easing of administrative controls. with uncertainty still being high and the risks of current account balances

4 shows the spread between the three - month unsecured rate and the three - month overnight index swap rate, which is a standard measure of interbank market tension. until 9 august 2007, which is often said to mark the start of the financial crisis, the unsecured euro interbank market was characterised by a very low spread of around five basis points. after the announcement by bnp paribas that it would freeze some funds, the spread increased by a factor of 12 to around 60 basis points. after the collapse of lehman brothers and the events surrounding the last weekend of september 2008, 10 the rates shot up further, eventually reaching a maximum of 186 basis points. the increase of rates in september 2008 is mirrored by the amount of funds deposited with the ecb at that time. chart 4 : interbank market source : f. heider, m. hoerova and c. holthausen ( 2009 ), op. cit. the events of the last two years have not only shown that even the most liquid funding markets for banks can seize up within days, but also proved that long - standing economic relationships across different market segments can suddenly break down precisely as a result of the links between banks. future regulation will take into account liquidity risk and prescribe sound liquidity policies. how banks have fared during the recent financial crisis the recent financial crisis has illustrated how banks ’ own business models and incentives can have a major impact on financial stability. in this regard, recent international evidence suggests that banking strategies that rely primarily on generating non - interest income or for an analysis see heider, f., m. hoerova and c. holthausen ( 2009 ), “ liquidity hoarding and interbank market spreads : the role of counterparty risk ”, ecb working paper ( forthcoming ). washington mutual, the largest s & l institution in the united states, was seized by the fdic and sold to jpmorgan chase. at the same time, negotiations on the tarp rescue package stalled in the us congress. over the weekend, it was reported that british mortgage lender bradford and bingley had to be rescued, and the benelux countries announced the injection of €11. 2 billion into fortis bank. on the following monday, germany announced the rescue of hypo real estate and iceland nationalised glitnir. attracting non - deposit funding are very risky. 11 there is also evidence, for example by andrea beltratti, from