the members of the federal open market committee ( fomc ) and debate what is the appropriate next step for u. s. monetary policy. all in all, there is a lot to keep myself and my colleagues fully engaged with the communities we represent. next, i ’ ll review recent developments in the national and regional economy, and at the end of my talk will be happy to answer any questions you have about the economic outlook. as always, what i have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the federal reserve system or the federal open market committee. national economic conditions let me begin by taking stock of where we are at the moment. then i will address my expectations for the performance of the economy over the remainder of 2013 and into 2014. according to the national bureau of economic research, which determines the timing of economic recessions and expansions, the current expansion began in mid - 2009, more than four years ago. however, the expansion has been subdued so far, as the average annual growth rate of real gdp has been just 2. 2 percent over the past four years. while that growth bis central bankers ’ speeches rate is near most fomc participants ’ estimates of the u. s. economy ’ s longer - run growth rate as well as those of many outside analysts, a more rapid pace of growth likely is necessary to reduce meaningfully the significant economic slack that developed during the great recession. consistent with the modest pace of economic growth, improvement in labor market conditions has been slow. even though the unemployment rate has declined by 2. 7 percentage points from its peak of 10 percent in october of 2009, there are still many people that want jobs but are not counted as unemployed because they are not actively looking for work. an alternative measure of labor market conditions, the employment to population ratio, which is not influenced by changes in the number of these workers, has shown limited improvement. job loss rates have fallen, but hiring rates remain depressed at low levels. taken together, the labor market still cannot be regarded as healthy. numerous indicators, including the behavior of labor compensation, are all consistent with the view that there remains a great deal of slack in labor markets. nevertheless, as i have stated in earlier speeches, i see persuasive evidence of improving underlying fundamentals for much of the private sector of the u. s. economy. key measures of household leverage have declined and are now near the lowest levels they have been in well over a decade. household net

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