). 3 ). we therefore revised down our forecast slightly in the short term. in 2008 we envisaged a gradual recover in productivity. after that, our assessment was that productivity growth would develop roughly in line with the trend rate of increase. several factors indicate that the long - term rate of increase in productivity will remain relatively high, although it will not be as high as during the years at the beginning of the 2000s. globalisation is one such factor, and will probably continue to be a driving force behind productivity for a long time to come. integration within the eu is deepening. the countries in eastern and central europe who have moved away from planned economies have many years of rapid development ahead of them before they catch up with western europe. the international competition in the product and labour markets and the financial integration process will thus continue to increase during the foreseeable future. the deregulation implemented in sweden in the 1990s in the communication and transport sector has probably already had its main impact on productivity. there is of course still scope for reforms to increase competition further and thereby also productivity. 14 but without such new initiatives the deregulation will probably not contribute as much to future growth. investments in it will probably fuel productivity for a long time. earlier experiences show that major development phases, such as electricity and the combustion engine, affected productivity growth over several decades. 15 as yet we know very little about the delayed effects on productivity from earlier it investments and reorganisations. hopefully, the productivity project i mentioned earlier will increase this knowledge. all in all, the indications are that long - term productivity growth will be slightly lower than in the past 10 - 15 years. the riksbank ’ s assessment is that the long - term rate of increase in productivity in the economy as a whole has fallen slightly to 2. 25 per cent a year. this is lower than during the period 1995 - 2006, when productivity growth was on average 2. 6 per cent a year, but slightly higher than the level of around 2 per cent a year that applies if the 1980s are included. the riksbank ’ s assessment is well in line with what, for instance, the national institute of economic research has assumed regarding long - term productivity growth in the economy. 16 in conclusion, let me briefly summarise my main message today. the rapid increase in productivity growth is an important explanation for the earlier low inflation. over the past year there has been a decline in productivity growth. this is assessed to be

, t. ( 2004 ), ” labour quality and productivity : does talent make capital dance? ”, background facts on economic statistics, 2004 : 07, economic statistics department, statistics sweden. hao, j., manole, v. and van ark, b., ( 2007 ), ” intangible capital and growth – an international comparison of france, germany, netherlands, united kingdom and the united states, the conference board, to be published. haskel, j. and marrano, m g., ( 2007 ), ” how much does the uk invest in intangible assets? ”, cepr discussion papers, dp6287. hakanson, c. ( 2007 ), “ effects of organizational change on firm productivity ”, essay presented at sveriges riksbank ’ s conference on “ understanding and predicting productivity growth ”, stockholm, 30 november - 1 december, 2007. itps, ( 2007 ), “ foreign companies 2006 ”, report series s2007 : 005. national institute of economic research, ( 2005 ), “ productivity and wages up to 2015 ”, special study no 6, may 2005. national institute of economic research, ( 2007 ), wage formation report 2007. lundberg, l. and karpaty, p. ( 2004 ), ” foreign direct investment and productivity in the swedish manufacturing industry 1990 - 2000 ”, in ” the internationalisation of the business sector – effects on employment, productivity and r & d ”, itps report series a2004 : 014. lundgren, s. ( ed. ), edquist, h. and wallgren, a. ( 2007 ), tillvaxt i otakt ( growth out of time ), sns forlag. sveriges riksbank, ( 2007 ), box : ” the riksbank ’ s company survey ”, monetary policy report 2007 : 3. oller, l - e., ( 2007 ), “ revisions of production data in the swedish national accounts ”, background facts on economic statistics, 2007 : 2, economic statistics department, statistics sweden.