, most recently, 6 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches the coronavirus pandemic, which has affected and changed almost every aspect of our public and private lives. you see the wide range of possible key factors. what happens now with the key factors in the scenario process? the key factors are bundled in the phase called scenario generation. the aim here is to generate a relatively small number of meaningfully distinguishable scenarios. a total number of three to five scenarios is envisaged. the finished scenarios will not only be described in text form, we also plan to show them in graphical form in order to make it easy to visualise this specific part of the future. this makes a scenario more tangible. the last step, scenario transfer, is actually no longer part of the scenario process. in this final phase, we as decision - makers can use the finished scenarios for specific purposes, such as strategic planning. now we have learned a lot about the methodology of strategic foresight and the scenario process, looked at practical examples and identified the megatrend of digitalisation as a key factor for the future development of cash. for us at the bundesbank, it is now a matter of putting theory into practice. this year we will compile the key factors and prepare the scenario generation. in spring 2023, we expect to have completed the core of the scenario process and produced the scenario transfer and reporting. incidentally, being able to present the results of our study next year or the year after – possibly at this wonderful conference – is, in my view, a plausible and realistic scenario. 8 conclusion ladies and gentlemen, when we talk about cash against the backdrop of an increase in new digital payment methods, one might get the impression that it is about the “ old world versus the new world ”. this supposed duality is not new. if we think back, around the turn of the millennium there was a real hype about everything that was called the new economy. new economy was a term used to describe internet start - ups, which often relied on little physical capital to generate, at times, staggering market valuations. this was in contrast to the old economy. think of brick - and - mortar car plants, for example. with the passage of time, we can say that “ the new has become a bit old and the old a bit new ”. economic structures have become integrated. the basic market forces still apply : the companies that survive are those that are competitive and offer a

bank of japan ’ s monthly report of recent economic and financial developments1 bank of japan, communication, 17 / 12 / 98. the bank ’ s view2 the economic deterioration in japan has moderated somewhat, mainly as a result of the increase in public investment. with respect to final demand, business fixed investment has been declining significantly, and housing investment continues to be sluggish. private consumption, as a whole, shows some weakness. meanwhile, net exports ( exports minus imports ) are basically on an upward trend, and public investment has started to increase considerably. reflecting this development of final demand and some progress in inventory adjustments, especially in those of durable goods, the decline in production has been slowing. corporate profits continue to worsen, and employment and household income conditions have deteriorated as the ratio of job offers to applications has recorded a historical low and winter bonuses are expected to decrease. financial conditions are improving in some firms with the effects of the policy measures taken by the government and the bank. nonetheless, firms apparently cannot remove their anxiety about fund - raising conditions. consequently, corporate and household sentiment remains cautious, and a recovery has not been observed in private demand. with the implementation of the government ’ s comprehensive economic stimulus package and recently launched emergency economic measures, the economy is likely to be underpinned mainly by public investment towards [ = during? ] the first half of fiscal 1999. furthermore, the bank ’ s monetary and financial measures and the government ’ s measures to alleviate the credit crunch are expected to take effect gradually. nevertheless, an immediate self - sustained recovery in private demand is hardly expected since corporate profits and household income are deteriorating and the constraints from corporate finance are likely to persist for some time, owing to cautious lending attitudes of private banks. moreover, attention should be paid to the effects of the appreciation of the yen since early autumn and the uncertainty in financial and economic developments abroad. to lead japan ’ s economy into a steady recovery, it is important to prepare an environment where firms and households can regain confidence in japan ’ s economic future by, for instance, promptly restoring the stability of the financial system. with regard to prices, reflecting the expansion in the output gap, wholesale prices are on a downtrend, and corporate service prices are weakening. consumer prices have increased slightly above the previous year ’ s level, owing to the rise in prices of perishables. excluding this effect, however, consumer prices basically continue to be weak. as for the outlook, the economic deterioration is