forge a consensus on how much inflation is too much and oblige our public administrators to operate within our expectations. if some find an easy inflation hedge at the expense of those on fixed contracts, we all lose in the end because the injustice of it will become intolerable to those at the losing end of events. the burden of fostering a low inflation environment rests not only on the government. as you blast off into your own spheres of endeavour – as you ramp up your productivity and do more in a day using less fuel and less paper – you help to keep costs from continuously rising. productivity improvements are the single most effective way to grow income while keeping prices stable. it thus becomes a business objective, a managerial guidepost and a personal resolution. at the end of the day, your actions, your voices and your advice will be invaluable inputs into the mix that keeps government and central bankers true to their promise and you true to your clients. plan for success this year and rest assured that we will do our part to maintain the integrity of those plans. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

expected to be interrupted temporarily, with inflation projected to breach the upper end of the target range towards the end of the june 2024 quarter. this is expected to reflect mainly seasonally higher agricultural food prices, a normalisation in electricity rates following significant declines in the same quarter of 2023, and higher transport - related inflation, due to the uptick in oil prices. thereafter, inflation is projected to return to the target range and generally remain there over the next eight quarters, with the exception of a few months in 2025. the current outlook for inflation is lower than the previous forecast that was shared with you in february 2024. the improved outlook is mainly due to the removal from the forecast of the second increase in public passenger vehicles ( ppv ) fares, which was scheduled for april 2024. this is consequent on the government's recent 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches announcement to postpone the second increase. processed food prices and the cost of meals away from home were also revised downward due to lower international grains prices. this is partly offset by the incorporation in the forecast of the announced increase in the national minimum wage and higher energy and transport - related inflation, due to higher international oil prices. notwithstanding the improved outlook, the mpc considered that the risks around the forecast were skewed to the upside over the next eight quarters. in particular, while core inflation has moderated, it remains close to the upper end of the target range. additionally, both measured and survey - based indicators of businesses'inflation expectations, although lower, have remained above the inflation target. larger - thanprojected regulated price adjustments could also influence higher inflation. there are also some upside risks that are external to jamaica that could influence higher inflation. these include higher - than - projected international oil prices and worsethan - anticipated weather conditions due to the emerging la nina weather phenomenon that could result in a more active 2024 hurricane season. on the flip side, the factors that could result in lower - than - projected inflation include weaker - than - projected global growth, which could reduce domestic demand and imported inflation. the mpc noted that a decision to reduce interest rates will depend on incoming data related to the risks to inflation noted above. in particular, the evolution of wage adjustments, inflation expectations and core inflation are important factors that will guide the mpc's decisions on policy rate adjustments and other monetary policy actions in the future. the bank will maintain heightened surveillance of the risks to inflation.