health crisis. in addition, once the restrictions related to the coronavirus have been lifted, they can also no longer exert downward pressure on prices. the second precondition is an entrenched economic recovery. this is because the economy in the euro area will then have to stay on course without the support of emergency monetary policy measures. this does not mean, of course, that monetary policy and fiscal policy will no longer support economic and price developments, but the direct coronavirus - related measures should then be rolled back in both policy areas. you see, the current projections indicate that economic output in the euro area is already set to exceed its pre - crisis level in the first quarter of 2022. furthermore, the forecast suggests that the underutilisation of aggregate economic capacity in the euro area will no longer be exceptional next year. that would no longer be a crisis year, in my opinion, if the assumptions regarding the course of the pandemic and expectations about its economic impact turn out to be substantially confirmed. owing to the uncertainty that still persists, we are unable to set a date for exiting monetary policy crisis mode very far in advance. however, to avoid having to end the pepp abruptly, net purchases could be scaled back gradually beforehand. it will then become clear whether the overall envelope for the pepp ended up being used in full or not. in any case, it was right for the ecb governing council not to commit itself either way on this score. 5 conclusion ladies and gentlemen, according to charles rosenberg, “ epidemics ordinarily end with a whimper, not a bang ”. 9 the incidence of the disease declines only gradually – an unspectacular yet inevitable sequence for a last act. all the more reason, then, to talk about the conditions under which the emergency situation can be considered over from the perspective of monetary policy. we should not wait for a bang. thank you for your attention. 4 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches 1 rosenberg, c. e. ( 1989 ), what is an epidemic? aids in historical perspective, daedalus, vol. 118, pp. 1 - 17. 2 deutsche bundesbank, outlook for the german economy for 2021 to 2023, monthly report, june 2021. 3 deutsche bundesbank, households ’ motivations for saving during the pandemic and their implications for the projection, monthly report, june 2021. 4 european central bank, eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for

njuguna ndung ’ u : cooperation between the bank of mauritius and the central bank of kenya remarks by prof njuguna ndung ’ u, governor of the central bank of kenya, at the signing ceremony of the memorandum of understanding between the bank of mauritius and the central bank of kenya, central bank of kenya, nairobi, 8 august 2011. * * * mr. rundheersing bheenick, governor of the bank of mauritius ; members of the press ; colleagues ; ladies and gentlemen ; i am privileged to welcome governor rundheersing bheenick of the bank of mauritius to nairobi and to the central bank of kenya. governor, we thank you for making the time to be here at this auspicious occasion and trust that you are having a pleasant stay so far. ladies and gentlemen : today ’ s event is a monumental one in that it marks the establishment of formal supervisory relations between the central bank of kenya and the bank of mauritius. we began the process of establishing formal cooperation between the bank of mauritius and the central bank of kenya in 2009 and today ’ s signing of the memorandum of understanding between the bank of mauritius and the central bank of kenya will be a culmination of that process. the mou is premised on the need to enhance cooperation in the sharing of supervisory information between our two institutions. it will help define and guide our working relationships in addition to enabling the smooth exchange of supervisory information between us. one kenyan bank ( i & m bank ) has already established a presence in mauritius while other banks are also considering exploring opportunities in mauritius. similarly, banks from mauritius have direct and indirect commercial relations with our kenyan institutions. ladies and gentlemen : the global financial crisis has reinforced the importance of effective dialogue and collaboration between banking supervisors. indeed, one of the biggest lessons learnt from the financial crisis has been the need for better regulation of financial institutions. the crisis has also provided an abundance of examples highlighting the importance of supervisory cooperation. as a result, a key initiative of the basel committee on banking supervision has been to recommend enhanced promotion of cooperation between supervisors globally in order to facilitate an efficient exchange of information. such coordination and communication is the basis for promoting robust risk management practices and developing sound supervisory standards. cross - border cooperation is a prerequisite for establishing effective resolution techniques for systemically important banks having cross - border operations. it is therefore apparent that it is no longer possible for any one regulator to adequately supervise institutions that operate across the globe, hence