have to undertake in order to make their public - debt paths sustainable. a second risk is the possibility of persistently higher oil prices, which may hamper global growth. a third contingency regards a recovery in japan that is slower than expected. financial markets and capital flows by the time recession ended in the united states and mexico, financial markets had attained more normal conditions. indeed, global uncertainty and fears expressed in the flight to quality which had disturbed the mexican stock, currency and bond markets during the crisis, eased substantially by the middle of 2009. since then, asset prices have rebounded, if not at a steady pace. in particular, the mexican stock market has surpassed its pre - crisis highs, although this year it has experienced downward adjustments. bond spreads, as expressed by the jp morgan embi for mexico, have tightened and stabilized during the first half of 2011 to around 160 basis points, slightly above its average in the same period of 2006. consistently, the domestic yield curve has shifted downward, especially for the short - and middle - term interest - rate structures. these developments seem to reflect both lower country - risk perception and expected inflation based on the difference between nominal and real interest rates in domestic bond markets. additionally, the mexican peso has gained value against the u. s. dollar, although somewhat less vigorously than the currencies of many other emerging economies. the lesser extent of mexican peso appreciation may be partly due to the uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the u. s. economic rebound in light of the tight links between both economies. moreover, recent news of further 7 sovereign - debt problems in some economies in the european monetary union ( emu ) has triggered international financial volatility, putting transitory for example, this year, blue chip forecasts for u. s. output growth for 2011 fell from 3. 2 percent to 2. 5 percent and for 2012 from 3. 3 percent to 3. 0 percent from february to july. however, the corresponding projections for mexico were raised from 3. 9 percent to 4. 3 percent ( 2011 ) and from 3. 8 percent to 4. 0 percent ( 2012 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches pressure on the peso exchange - rate. until the weak fiscal and financial situation of the emu is solved comprehensibly, an event that may yet take some time, additional financial turbulence from this source cannot be ruled out. as in other emerging economies, the upsurge in financial asset prices since 2009

sufficiently. it ’ s a lack of collective vigilance, but also of solidarity, because warning a neighbour that their internal imbalances risk doing them no good, that ’ s what solidarity is. in the same way, governments can be inspired by reforms which have proven successful in other countries : why not benefit from that collective richness? have the member states, notably france, gone far enough in respect of structural reforms? the efforts undertaken are going in the right direction, but it ’ s no easy task. the countries of the euro area are facing a double challenge : preparing for the future by investing particularly in the digital economy, big data and the environmental transition, while managing the burden of the past, namely, public and private debts. their room for manoeuvre is therefore limited, and the factors supporting growth in the euro area today, the favourable financing conditions, cheap energy and the weakness of the euro, are by nature temporary. to secure the future, the measures that are likely to increase productivity and labour market participation have to be emphasised from now on. the ecb started its programme for purchasing public and private debt ( quantitative easing ) in march. is it working? the first months have been encouraging : contrary to what some were saying, we have had no difficulty finding assets to buy, indicators of the inflation expectations are showing signs of recovery, lending to non - financial corporations is trending upwards, the recovery trajectory is there to be seen and we expect inflation to move back towards 2 %. but we are only at the start of these asset purchases, which we plan to maintain until september 2016, and in any case until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, in line with our objective. it would be quite premature to start talking about the end of this programme. bis central bankers ’ speeches