axel a weber : oil price shocks and monetary policy in the euro area text of the whitaker lecture by professor axel a weber, president of the deutsche bundesbank, at the central bank and financial services authority of ireland, dublin, 11 may 2006. references to the speech can be found on the deutsche bundesbank ’ s website. * * * introduction dear john hurley, dear dr ken whitaker, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your kind invitation to dublin. i am very pleased to have this opportunity to share my views with you. and i am honoured to give this year ’ s whitaker lecture. ken whitaker has been the intellectual mastermind behind the theoretical and practical sea change in irish economic policies in general. especially with his book on economic development in 1958. and let me mention that his rigorous arguments against protectionism and isolation and for macroeconomic stability are still relevant today despite all the achievements we have made in this respect in europe over the past few decades. ken whitaker has not only made a crucial contribution to the intellectual foundations of solid macroeconomic policies in ireland, also he has not shied away from the more onerous challenge of implementing his views in day - to - day policy, not least during his term as irish central bank governor from 1969 to 1976. ken whitaker ’ s tenure as central bank governor fell at the time of the first oil price shock. this is a subject that is once again high on the agenda of monetary policymakers all over the world and it is the topic i shall focus on in my following remarks. the world is, indeed, once again facing a substantial rise in oil prices. prices have nearly tripled since mid - 2003 and have now reached nominal record levels ( usd70 per barrel brent crude on a monthly average in april 2006 ). putting it even more starkly : taking the low - point of oil prices at the end of 1998 ( usd10 per barrel brent ) and thus interpreting the developments since then as a single prolonged oil price shock, the scale of the shock is greatly magnified. moreover, the current oil price level is perceived to be persistent, as is reflected by brent crude oil futures remaining at elevated levels. these developments are creating imminent upside risks to price stability. consequently oil prices figure prominently on the risk agenda of the ecb ’ s governing council. this is documented by last week ’ s assessment that inflationary risks persist and continue to lie on the upside. upside risks for future price stability arise, amongst others, from additional

radovan jelasic : serbia in transition speech by mr radovan jelasic, governor of the national bank of serbia, on the occasion of celebrations of “ st vitus day of diaspora in serbia ”, belgrade, 29 june 2007. * * * ladies and gentlemen, mrs cubrilo, it is a great pleasure to me to greet you all on behalf of the national bank of serbia on the occasion of the traditionally organized celebrations of “ st vitus day of diaspora in serbia ”. serbia is in a whirl of change and you are the ones who can best see effects of transition and judge what next serbia has to do to regain its rightful place among the moderately developed countries. allow me to begin by “ reporting ” the results achieved over the last year : 1. price stability – last time serbia recorded a 4. 4 % rate inflation was in the bygone 1963. in the meantime, we have grown so used to the abnormal inflationary environment manipulated by the state to cheat on its citizens and to scoop additional tax revenue that it feels almost strange now that inflation is suddenly gone. as for our dinar – the very image of our country – it has never felt freer floating along other currencies. foreign exchange reserves are at their record high of us $ 12. 2 billion and the price of capital, though slowly, is doubtless falling in contrast to its price in countries whence you came where such price, though slowly, is doubtless rising! if not this year, i hope to see these two sets of lending rates meet half way within the span of the next 3 to 5 years. 2. if there is anything in serbia now that resembles european union, it is the banks – 80 % of the banking sector is in foreign majority ownership, with foreign meaning eu countries. just as we are unable at the moment to use our bank account in frankfurt to effect transactions in paris – though both accounts are in the same currency – so shall we be able to have a single account for transactions across the whole of europe only once serbia joins european union and banks set up their branches in serbia instead of daughter banks. in the meantime, our payment cards are accepted at 1, 800 atms and over 50, 000 pos terminals. 3. as for the rest of the financial sector, insurance companies, voluntary pension funds and leasing companies – a notable step forward has also been achieved. transfer of remittances from abroad represents one of the key