information concerning fed policies and programs, we recently unveiled a new section of our website that brings together in a systematic and comprehensive way the full range of information that the federal reserve already makes available, supplemented by explanations, discussions, and analyses. 2 we will use that website as one means of keeping the public and the congress fully informed about fed programs. second, at my request, board vice chairman donald kohn is leading a committee that will review our current publications and disclosure policies relating to the fed's balance sheet and lending policies. the presumption of the committee will be that the public has a right to know, and that the nondisclosure of information must be affirmatively justified by clearly articulated criteria for confidentiality, based on factors such as reasonable claims to privacy, the confidentiality of supervisory information, and the need to ensure the effectiveness of policy. for links and references, see ben s. bernanke ( 2009 ), " federal reserve programs to strengthen credit markets and the economy, " testimony before the committee on financial services, u. s. house of representatives, february 10. the website is located at http. / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / bst. htm. the economic outlook and the fomc's quarterly projections in their economic projections for the january fomc meeting, monetary policy makers substantially marked down their forecasts for real gdp this year relative to the forecasts they had prepared in october. the central tendency of their most recent projections for real gdp implies a decline of 1 / 2 percent to 1 - 1 / 4 percent over the four quarters of 2009. these projections reflect an expected significant contraction in the first half of this year combined with an anticipated gradual resumption of growth in the second half. the central tendency for the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 was marked up to a range of 8 - 1 / 2 percent to 8 - 3 / 4 percent. federal reserve policymakers continued to expect moderate expansion next year, with a central tendency of 2 - 1 / 2 percent to 3 - 1 / 4 percent growth in real gdp and a decline in the unemployment rate by the end of 2010 to a central tendency of 8 percent to 8 - 1 / 4 percent. fomc participants marked down their projections for overall inflation in 2009 to a central tendency of 1 / 4 percent to 1 percent, reflecting expected weakness in commodity prices and the disinflationary effects of significant economic

slack. the projections for core inflation also were marked down, to a central tendency bracketing 1 percent. both overall and core inflation are expected to remain low over the next two years. this outlook for economic activity is subject to considerable uncertainty, and i believe that, overall, the downside risks probably outweigh those on the upside. one risk arises from the global nature of the slowdown, which could adversely affect u. s. exports and financial conditions to an even greater degree than currently expected. another risk derives from the destructive power of the so - called adverse feedback loop, in which weakening economic and financial conditions become mutually reinforcing. to break the adverse feedback loop, it is essential that we continue to complement fiscal stimulus with strong government action to stabilize financial institutions and financial markets. if actions taken by the administration, the congress, and the federal reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability - - and only if that is the case, in my view - - there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery. if financial conditions improve, the economy will be increasingly supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, the salutary effects of the steep decline in energy prices since last summer, and the better alignment of business inventories and final sales, as well as the increased availability of credit. to further increase the information conveyed by the quarterly projections, fomc participants agreed in january to begin publishing their estimates of the values to which they expect key economic variables to converge over the longer run ( say, at a horizon of five or six years ), under the assumption of appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of new shocks to the economy. the central tendency for the participants'estimates of the longer - run growth rate of real gdp is 2 - 1 / 2 percent to 2 - 3 / 4 percent ; the central tendency for the longer - run rate of unemployment is 4 - 3 / 4 percent to 5 percent ; and the central tendency for the longer - run rate of inflation is 1 - 3 / 4 percent to 2 percent, with the majority of participants looking for 2 percent inflation in the long run. these values are all notably different from the central tendencies of the projections for 2010 and 2011, reflecting the view of policymakers that a full recovery of the economy from the current recession is likely to take more than two or three years. the longer - run projections for output growth and unemployment may be interpreted as the committee