the medium term despite the raising of the snb policy rate is attributable to stronger inflationary pressure from abroad and the fact that price increases are spreading across the various categories of goods and services in the consumer price index. the new forecast puts average annual inflation at 2. 9 % for 2022, 2. 4 % for 2023 and 1. 8 % for 2024 ( cf. table 1 ). without today ’ s snb policy rate increase, the inflation forecast would be even higher over the medium term. global economic outlook i will now move on to the economic outlook. global growth momentum has continued to slow down. at the same time, inflation in many countries is markedly above central banks ’ targets. accordingly, numerous central banks have further tightened their monetary policy. in our baseline scenario for the global economy, we expect this challenging situation to persist for now. global economic growth is likely to be weak in the coming quarters, and inflation will remain elevated for the time being. over the medium term, however, inflation abroad should return to more moderate levels, not least due to the increasingly tighter monetary policy in many countries. our scenario for the global economy is subject to significant risks. the energy situation in europe could worsen again. at the same time, high inflation could become embedded and require renewed stronger monetary policy responses abroad. finally, the coronavirus pandemic remains an important source of risk for the global economy. swiss economic outlook what is the economic outlook for switzerland? gdp grew at an annualised rate of 1. 0 % in the third quarter. economic momentum thus remained similarly modest as in the preceding quarters. while many service industries fared well, there was a renewed slight decline in value added in manufacturing. the situation on the labour market remained positive. employment continued to rise, and unemployment decreased again slightly. overall production capacity has been well utilised. switzerland ’ s gdp is likely to grow by around 2. 0 % this year. however, weaker demand from abroad and the high energy prices are likely to curb economic activity markedly in the coming year. against this backdrop, we expect gdp growth of around 0. 5 % for 2023. page 2 / 4 berne, 15 december 2022 thomas jordan news conference our forecast for switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to high uncertainty. a stronger economic downturn abroad or a pronounced energy shortage in switzerland would, in particular, have a negative effect. monetary policy outlook ladies and gentlemen, allow me to

analysts as illustrated in the x - axis. in order to see how large a proportion of times the riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the x - axis, then study the red column on the y - axis. riksbank nier consensus time series model ( ar ( 1 ) ) sources : statistics sweden, the national institute of economic research, consensus forecasts and the riksbank figure 12. ranking for the cpi following year per cent note. the y - axis shows how large a percentage of times analysts have been better than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in the x - axis. in order to see how large a proportion of times the riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the x - axis, then study the red column on the y - axis. riksbank nier consensus time series model ( ar ( 1 ) ) sources : statistics sweden, the national institute of economic research, consensus forecasts and the riksbank figure 13. the cpix with uncertainty band annual percentage change 90 % 75 % 50 % und1x - 1 dec - 02 - 1 dec - 03 dec - 04 dec - 05 dec - 06 dec - 07 dec - 08 dec - 09 dec - 10 sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank figure 14. repo rate with uncertainty band per cent, quarterly averages 90 % 75 % 50 % reporanta dec - 02 dec - 03 dec - 04 dec - 05 dec - 06 dec - 07 dec - 08 dec - 09 dec - 10 source : the riksbank