base. there is still some risk of resurgence in volatility and risk - aversion in global financial markets, depending on sentiments around the evolution of the pandemic and perceptions around the efficacy of policy interventions. this would have significant implications for capital flows to emerging markets, and in turn their currencies and inflation outlook. in our november monetary policy committee ( mpc ) meeting, we assessed the overall risks to the growth outlook as balanced, but acknowledge this as a tentative assessment, which is open to adjustment given the wide range of shocks hitting the economy, uncertainties involving the effectiveness of policy, and the sensitivity of sentiment to news flow. we revised our 2020 growth forecast marginally upwards from a contraction of 8. 2 % projected at our september meeting to a contraction of 8 % on the assumption of a stronger recovery in the third quarter of this year. we further expect the economy to grow by 3. 5 % and 2. 4 % in 2021 and 2022 respectively. our quarterly projection model ( qpm ) also points to a large output gap that will only narrow over the remainder of the forecast period but still remain negative in 2022. the main drag on medium - term growth is that we expect negative growth in investment this year and next year in both the public and the private sector. admittedly, this is only a forecast, but if it holds, it will have profound implications for the future productive potential of our economy. structural issues, such as electricity supply challenges and a constrained fiscal environment, also remain key obstacles to the economic recovery in the medium term. the overall risks to the inflation outlook at this time appear to be to the downside in the near term and balanced over the medium term. one of the key factors explaining the projected downward movement in core inflation is the lower increase in medical insurance prices in 2021. however, we noted that evidence points to this reduction as temporary and likely to reverse in 2022. some internal work done by our economic research department shows that medical schemes built up significant cash surpluses under lockdown, as members were avoiding hospitals and other medical facilities except for emergency treatments. to reduce these surpluses, most medical schemes are implementing smaller price increases for 2021. our engagements with medical schemes suggest larger increases will resume in 2022, once the excess reserves from the lockdown are depleted. rentals and owner - occupied rentals have also been on a downward trend, although this has been factored into our forecast. furthermore, our projections of unit

millison narh : macroeconomic management and regional integration keynote address by mr millison narh, deputy governor of the bank of ghana, at the west african institute for financial and economic management ( waifem ) regional course on macroeconomic management and regional integration, accra, 8 – 19 march 2010. * * * director general of waifem, prof. akpan h. ekpo, course facilitators and participants, distinguished invited guests, ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of the governor, mr. kwesi amissah - arthur, let me welcome you all to this opening ceremony of the regional course on macroeconomic management and regional integration. i am pleased to welcome you all to accra, especially those visiting us for the first time ; please feel at home and do take some time off your otherwise busy work schedule to visit some of our historical landmarks as well as tourist attractions, and to get a taste of the well - known ghanaian hospitality. i also wish to thank waifem for organizing this course, and indeed for generally sustaining such efforts in line with its principal objective of building capacity for debt, macroeconomic and financial sector management in its constituent countries. i thank you for inviting me to deliver the keynote address and to chair the opening ceremony. from a cursory glance at your work program, it is clear to me that the course is rather integrated, as it covers topics ranging from research methods to the basics of macroeconomics, advanced macroeconomics, econometrics and regional integration issues. i am certain that an excellent faculty has been put at your disposal to facilitate the respective topics, and i am sure that your participation in the course shall indeed be beneficial. ladies and gentlemen, the theme for this course, “ macroeconomic management and economic integration ”, could not have been better chosen. the recent global financial crisis has re - emphasised the need for more efficient macroeconomic management and the promotion of economic integration among our economies. as you will recall, the impacts of the recent global financial crisis on fragile economies such as ours, have ranged from falling exports, a drop in remittances, reduced access to trade finance, lower levels of foreign direct investment, and potential reductions in further foreign aid flows. among the coping strategies that have been suggested at different fora is to boost domestic resources as foreign financing from export revenues to development assistance continues to dry up. another recommendation is to accelerate economic integration among our economies so as to limit the