rather quickly. some even seemed to believe that a modest drop in us interest rates would be sufficient to coax everything back into place once again. but by now most have realised how unlikely these problems are to disappear so quickly. there is every reason to believe that the coming months could prove difficult as a result, and there is correspondingly little reason to believe that the crisis is past. uncertainty abounds. a huge investment bank like merrill lynch could not foresee that, in only two weeks ’ time, it would have to write down billions of dollars ’ worth of outstanding debt. the ceo of the company has had to pack his bags and leave, albeit with a generous going - away present. the largest bank in the world is also beset by the restlessness, and it isn ’ t yet fully clear what the effects will be, but that ceo has received his marching orders as well. and according to the latest reports, while there are reported write - downs of a mere 20 billion dollars on subprime mortgages, the actual amount could in the end be between 250 and 300 billion. one cannot help but wonder whether market participants in iceland and elsewhere preferred to suffer through a shaky third quarter in the hope of some redemption in the fourth quarter, and in the process, avoided recording some items that should have appeared in third - quarter accounts. no one is going so far as to allege that the global markets are besieged by a broad - based movement to violate the law or act contrary to ethical business practice, but it could nonetheless be that the rules are stretched quite a bit, though perhaps within the limits of legality and even ethics. in so doing, companies everywhere are factoring in the value of assets for which there is, at present, no market. to be sure, assessing the market value of assets that are not marketable, either for the short term or for the long term, is a tricky matter. in the vast majority of cases, a market will develop at a later date, and if the companies in question have the wherewithal to hold them until that market develops, there is no reason to harbour any real anxiety. but assets that end up at a fire sale are another matter entirely. so it is difficult to determine market value when the market is sticky and virtually closed. all of these conditions kindle suspicions and undermine faith, and as it seems, the real problem is not so much a growing lack of liquidity as a growing lack of faith.

norman t l chan : black bear – blue ocean – wanton noodle speech by mr norman t l chan, chief executive of the hong kong monetary authority, at the hong kong management association fellowship award dinner, hong kong, 26 november 2013. * * * dennis ( sun ), alfred ( chan ), victor ( lee ), ladies and gentlemen, 1. i feel very honoured to have been invited to speak at the hkma fellowship dinner tonight. this is not only because the hong kong management association has been a forerunner in enhancing the standards of management and governance in hong kong, but also because the hong kong management association and the hong kong monetary authority share the same initials “ hkma ”! hence, attending the fellowship dinner tonight has double meanings for me as the chief executive of the hkma. 2. management is crucial as it embraces knowledge, skills, culture and leadership that would guide and shape the future of an organisation, whether it is public sector or private sector body or whether it is profit - seeking or non - profit - making entity. there is no doubt that, with increased globalisation and technological innovation, markets in different geographical localities have become more interconnected. one author has described the phenomenon as the “ world has become flat ”. 3. an important outcome of the interconnectedness of markets is that competition has become much more intense and ferocious. talking about competition, let me share with you this story. 4. one day two men went together hiking in the mountain. while happily walking and talking, they bumped into a giant black bear which was apparently in a bad mood and in need of some nutritious food. even though this was their very first encounter of a big bear in the wilderness, the ferocity displayed by the bear cast no doubt in their minds that their lives were at stake. so the two of them ran as fast as they could downhill and soon they reached the flat land at the bottom of the hill. unfortunately the bear appeared to be quite determined to get the catch of the day and was chasing them from 50 yards behind. suddenly one man stopped running and took out his running shoes from his knapsack to put them on. the other guy was very puzzled and asked : “ what are you doing, you stupid? i don ’ t think you can run faster than the bear even with your running shoes on! ” the other guy replied : “ yes, i know this. but it would be good enough if i can run faster than you