rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less fresh food, excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hikes ) was 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2014, 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2015, and 2. 1 percent for fiscal 2016. b. overseas economies i would now like to give an overview of overseas economies. these are expected to moderately increase their growth rates as advanced economies continue to see firm recovery and its positive effects gradually spread to emerging economies. according to the projections for global economic growth released by the international monetary fund ( imf ) in april 2014 in its world economic outlook, global growth is projected to strengthen to 3. 6 percent in 2014 and then to 3. 9 percent in 2015, rising at a moderate pace to reach a rate exceeding its long - term average. looking at respective major countries and regions, in the united states, real gdp for the january - march quarter of 2014 decreased from the previous quarter, mainly due to the effects of the unusually severe winter weather, but has returned to a moderate recovery trend. as for the outlook, the pace of recovery is expected to gradually rise, led mainly by private demand – such as firm private consumption – as accommodative financial conditions are expected to be maintained and fiscal drag is likely to weaken. the euro area economy is recovering moderately, registering positive growth for four consecutive quarters. although faced with structural problems such as excess debt, it is expected to continue recovering moderately, supported in part by improvement in household and business sentiment. regarding risks to the economy, close attention needs to be paid to a possible prolonged disinflationary trend and the effects of the situation in ukraine and russia. the chinese economy continues to see stable growth, although it has been growing at a somewhat reduced pace, mainly in real estate - related areas. the chinese authorities have taken the stance of continuing to pay consideration to economic activity while progressing with structural reforms, and already have taken some policy measures to underpin economic activity. in addition, external demand is expected to continue improving moderately, mainly in advanced economies, and thus the chinese economy is likely to continue to see stable growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace. meanwhile, some of the other emerging and commodity - exporting economies remain weak in a situation where they are facing issues regarding, for example, current account balance and inflation rates. these economies will likely continue to lack growth momentum for the time being, but are expected to gradually increase their growth rates due to positive effects of the recovery

angle. the challenges for central bankers in the current ims let me move on to the challenges for central bankers in the current ims. i would like to raise three aspects. first, the implementation of macro - prudential policy. the recent global financial crisis has brought to the forefront the importance of macro - prudential policy. we have not been able to nail down its definition nor come up with a comprehensive toolkit. it may take some time before we can make it truly operational. but, we do need to recognize that it took a couple of decades before the importance of price stability for macro - economic stability was fully appreciated and became embedded in central banks ’ monetary policy framework worldwide. second, dealing with tail risks. taking preemptive action to avoid the emergence of bubbles which can seriously harm the economy means implementing measures to prevent the build - up of tail risks or occurrence of low - frequency, high - severity events. the independence and the need for a clear mandate are often emphasized as an important basis for a macroprudential authority. however, i believe that is not enough. a fundamental change in the way economic policy is perceived is called for. a collective understanding within society that it would be acceptable and appropriate for the macro - prudential authority to take away the punch bowl when conditions still seem to be benign, is necessary. this is a large change from the current policy paradigm, where measures are typically introduced after specific negative shocks occur. third, the cross - border spillover effects of policy actions. due to continuing globalization and financial innovation, the interlinkages among economies and financial markets continue to strengthen. in this environment, regardless of whether it is monetary policy or macroprudential policy, policy - makers will have to inevitably be cognizant of the cross - border implications of their policy actions. it also needs to be recognized that there will be feedback effects from overseas economies and markets which will influence domestic economic and financial conditions. forums such as the bis have played critical roles in enhancing central bank communication and cooperation over the years. their importance will increase further in such an environment. independent evaluation office of the international monetary fund. the ieo released a report titled the “ imf performance in the run - up to the financial and economic crisis : imf surveillance in 2004 – 07 ” in january 2011. bis central bankers ’ speeches i will not go into details here, but issues such as strengthening the plumbing of the financial system though, for example, further