pressure on inflation from weakness in the economy, and weigh that against the upward pressure on inflation from higher input prices and supply chain disruptions. so let me tell you what we're doing in preparation. in recent years, we have invested in better information on supply chains, trade links and the connections between sectors. and this is helping us analyze the effects of supply disruptions including tariffs. we have begun assessing the possible consequences of different tariff scenarios, and present an example in this mpr. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches we are stepping up our outreach activities across the country to hear directly from those affected by trade uncertainty. this includes augmenting our surveys of businesses and consumers to better understand how trade uncertainty is affecting their decisions and how they would cope in the event of a trade conflict. we will update you on our analysis and assessments as developments unfold. having restored low inflation and reduced interest rates substantially, monetary policy is better positioned to help the economy adjust to new developments. as always, the bank will be guided by our monetary policy framework and our commitment to maintain price stability over time. with that, the senior deputy governor and i would be pleased to take your questions. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

mark carney : summary of the latest monetary policy report opening statement by mr mark carney, governor of the bank of canada, at the press conference following the release of the monetary policy report, ottawa, 22 april 2010. * * * good morning. i am pleased to be here with you today to discuss the april monetary policy report, which the bank published this morning. global economic growth has been somewhat stronger than projected, with momentum in emerging - market economies increasing noticeably and moderate recovery underway in most advanced economies. global growth is now projected to average slightly above 4 per cent a year through 2012. in canada, the economic recovery is proceeding somewhat more rapidly than expected in january. it is supported by continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, improved financial conditions, the rebound in global economic growth, more favourable terms of trade, and increased business and household confidence. this year should mark the turning point when the private sector takes over from the public sector as the primary source of growth. gdp is now projected to grow by 3. 7 per cent in 2010 before slowing gradually to 3. 1 per cent in 2011 and 1. 9 per cent in 2012. this profile reflects stronger near - term global growth, very strong housing activity in canada, and the bank ’ s assessment that policy stimulus resulted in more expenditures being brought forward in late 2009 and early 2010 than expected. at the same time, the persistent strength of the canadian dollar, canada ’ s poor relative productivity performance, and the low absolute level of u. s. demand will continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in canada. the bank estimates that gdp in the first quarter of 2010 was about 1 per cent below its peak in the third quarter of 2008 and some 2 per cent below its potential. the economy is expected to return to full capacity in the second quarter of 2011, one quarter earlier than projected in january. the outlook for inflation reflects the combined influences of stronger domestic demand, slowing wage growth, and overall excess supply. core inflation, which has been somewhat firmer than projected in january, is expected to ease slightly in the second quarter of 2010 as the effect of temporary factors dissipates, and to remain near 2 per cent throughout the rest of the projection period. total cpi inflation is expected to be slightly higher than 2 per cent over the coming year, before returning to the target in the second half of 2011. despite the firming of the global and canadian recoveries, there are considerable risks around the bank ’ s outlook.