red curve in the figure is actual unemployment. the yellow curve in the figure shows a calculation of equilibrium unemployment using what is known as an unobserved components model. the upper and lower confidence intervals for this calculation method mean that the current level of equilibrium unemployment can be said, with 95 per cent confidence, to lie between just over four per cent and nine per cent. the grey curve shows a calculation using an alternative unobserved components model, while the blue curve is a calculation based on what is known as a structural var model, which includes gdp and unemployment. when it is considered that it is unclear which of the three methods of calculation should be used, uncertainty over the equilibrium level will increase. this can be seen from the variation, depending on method, of the estimates of equilibrium unemployment. see, for example, forslund ( 2008 ) for a discussion of factors affecting the level of equilibrium unemployment. this state of long - term economic equilibrium is the same as saying that the economy is in a steady state. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 2 unemployment and model estimates of equilibrium unemployment10 per cent of labour force unemployment svar uc gap uc trend cycle note : the diagram only shows the so - called point estimate for the svar and uc trend cycle models. the uncertainty / error margin associated with these two calculation methods is thus not shown. source : the riksbank so, even though the calculations shown in the figure are based on historical data, the level of equilibrium unemployment cannot afterwards be determined with any degree of certainty. this is because equilibrium unemployment is not observable. given this uncertainty, it could be asked whether equilibrium unemployment is a stable enough measure to use in the assessment of actual resource utilisation. the fact that estimates of equilibrium unemployment vary heavily over time and depending on the calculation model used provides a good illustration of the risk in having blind faith in the exactness of the estimated unemployment gap. this uncertainty means that deciding which view to take of long - term unemployment is always, ultimately, a matter of judgement. figure 3 shows the riksbank ’ s present assessment of equilibrium unemployment, together with the latest assessments from the national institute of economic research and the ministry of finance. unlike in figure 2, this is a matter of more long - term calculations of equilibrium unemployment. in figure 2, nairu ( non - accelerating inflation rate - of - unemployment ) has been calculated. the terms nairu and equilibrium unemployment are sometimes used as synonyms. there is, however

the matching of job seekers to vacancies. this is because matching seems to work less efficiently for young people, in comparison with unemployed people of other ages. young people thus have higher unemployment than older people. another group that tends to have a higher average rate of unemployment consists of those born abroad. a report by statistics sweden ( 2010 ) shows that the degree of employment among those born abroad amounts to 58 per cent in swedish metropolitan regions, which can be compared with 82 per cent for those born in sweden. 11 however, there are substantial differences between the different groups born abroad. the employment rate is lowest for those born outside of europe, and lower for those born outside of the nordic region than for those born in the nordic countries. it also appears to take a long time before immigrants from other countries manage to enter the swedish labour market. this means large welfare losses for both the individual and swedish society, and that a well - needed injection of resources to the swedish labour market risks being lost. integration work is therefore important to turn this trend around. integration work should emphasise the importance of education as there has been a large immigration of groups lacking basic education. the possibilities to find work are affected to a great extent by the level of education the job seeker has. upper - secondary school education is usually a basic requirement when recruiting staff and, according to the swedish employment service, most jobs that do not require an upper - secondary school education have disappeared forever from the swedish labour market. a worrying development is that the percentage of unemployed with only secondary school education has increased substantially in the age groups below 35 years. this is because a large percentage does not obtain complete grades at upper - secondary school. so it is not surprising that the swedish public employment service points to the fact that there has been a rapid inflow to the labour force in recent years of people in groups that have difficulty finding jobs quickly. this increase is partially linked to people being transferred from the social insurance office to the swedish public employment service. at the same time, the swedish public employment service has been given the main responsibility for people who have immigrated to sweden. the so - called vulnerable groups, which according to the swedish public employment service will have difficulty finding work, include, for instance, young people with little education and people born outside of europe. as shown in figure 5, the percentage of people registered as unemployed and belonging to vulnerable groups rose in 2008 and 2009. this percentage has since remained at a level that is much higher than for