projected to receive benefits. notably, this year about 5 individuals are between the ages of 20 and 64 for each person aged 65 or older. by the time most of the baby boomers have retired in 2030, this ratio is projected to have declined to around 3. in addition, government expenditures on health care for both retirees and non - retirees have continued to rise rapidly as increases in the costs of care have exceeded increases in incomes. to avoid sharp, disruptive shifts in spending programs and tax policies in the future, and to retain the confidence of the public and the markets, we should be planning now how we will meet these looming budgetary challenges. achieving long - term fiscal sustainability will be difficult. but unless we as a nation make a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, in the longer run, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.

ben s bernanke : economic and financial conditions and the federal budget before the committee on the budget speech by mr ben s bernanke, chairman of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the us house of representatives, washington dc, 9 june 2010. * * * chairman spratt, ranking member ryan, and other members of the committee, i am pleased to have this opportunity to offer my views on current economic and financial conditions and on issues pertaining to the federal budget. the economic outlook the recovery in economic activity that began in the second half of last year has continued at a moderate pace so far this year. moreover, the economy – supported by stimulative monetary policy and the concerted efforts of policymakers to stabilize the financial system – appears to be on track to continue to expand through this year and next. the latest economic projections of federal reserve governors and reserve bank presidents, which were made near the end of april, anticipate that real gross domestic product ( gdp ) will grow in the neighborhood of 3 - 1 / 2 percent over the course of 2010 as a whole and at a somewhat faster pace next year. 1 this pace of growth, were it to be realized, would probably be associated with only a slow reduction in the unemployment rate over time. in this environment, inflation is likely to remain subdued. although the support to economic growth from fiscal policy is likely to diminish in the coming year, the incoming data suggest that gains in private final demand will sustain the recovery in economic activity. real consumer spending has risen at an annual rate of nearly 3 - 1 / 2 percent so far this year, with particular strength in the highly cyclical category of durable goods. consumer spending is likely to increase at a moderate pace going forward, supported by a gradual pickup in employment and income, greater consumer confidence, and some improvement in credit conditions. in the business sector, real outlays for equipment and software posted another solid gain in the first quarter, and the increases were more broadly based than in late 2009 ; the available indicators point to continued strength in the second quarter. looking forward, investment in new equipment and software is expected to be supported by healthy corporate balance sheets, relatively low costs of financing of new projects, increased confidence in the durability of the recovery, and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment and expand capacity as sales prospects brighten. more generally, us manufacturing output, which has benefited from strong export demand, rose at