bank of japan ’ s march review of monetary and economic trends in japan bank of japan, monthly economic review, 18 / 3 / 97. a moderate economic recovery continues in japan as private demand shows increasing firmness. with respect to final demand, public - sector investment has decreased while net exports have continued on an increasing trend. housing investment has remained at a high level and business fixed investment is increasing steadily. a moderate recovery in personal consumption has continued on the whole, while passenger car sales have increased significantly. meanwhile, inventories on the whole are at appropriate levels. reflecting these developments, industrial production has shown a steady increase and labor conditions on the whole have continued to improve moderately. meanwhile, prices have stopped declining, and monetary aggregates have continued to grow at 3. 0 - 4. 0 per cent. with regard to personal consumption, sales at department stores and supermarkets are improving moderately, albeit with some fluctuations owing to such factors as weather conditions. outlays for travel have continued to increase. sales of electrical appliances are increasing on the whole, although the pace of growth in personal computers and cellular telephones has decelerated. passenger car sales have recorded buoyant two - digit growth year - toyear for five consecutive months since october 1996. among leading indicators of business fixed investment, machinery orders have increased steadily on average. they rose significantly in the fourth quarter 1996 and showed a marginal decline in january 1997 from the average of the fourth quarter. construction floor area has also continued to pick up moderately. with respect to housing investment, housing starts in terms of the seasonallyadjusted annual rate have continued to be at a high level, although they have decreased for three consecutive months owing to the reversal of the rise in demand ahead of the consumption tax rate hike. regarding public - sector investment, public works contracted showing developments in orders have decreased significantly since the end of 1996 compared to the high level recorded in the previous year, which reflected the large economic stimulus package. as for actual implementation of public works, with a time lag after orders, the seasonally - adjusted level of shipments of public - related goods increased until summer 1996, but has been decreasing since autumn 1996. real exports are on an increasing trend reflecting the moderate expansion of overseas economies and the effects of the yen ’ s depreciation since summer 1995. although real imports are increasing, reflecting such elements as the rise in domestic demand, the recent pace of increase has been moderate, a reflection of the depreciation of the

is to extend these intelligence activities to new financial institutions and products to detect possible problems. the existing framework at the bank of japan, financial markets department ( 2009, 2010 ), “ the development and challenges of japan ’ s money markets : tokyo money market survey ” ( available only in japanese ). bis central bankers ’ speeches bank of japan is versatile and can incorporate new elements relatively easily. however, problems remain about the depth or intensity of these intelligence activities : that is, the quantity and quality of information currently available may not be sufficient for detecting possible risks. thus, we are only at the starting line, and there is still a long way to go. finally, i should emphasize that market intelligence has significantly improved central banks ’ economic statistics, and will continue to do so in the future. we have learned from the failures in the summer of 2007, that we must extend the coverage and improve the quality of statistics concerning non - depository financial institutions. we can also take advantage of new methods and new information sources to get the best use of market information in constructing timely statistics, as shown in the case of property prices. in closing, i would like to emphasize again the point i stated in the introduction, the point that i would most like to convey to you. central bank statisticians should be more than good statisticians, simply maintaining the quality of existing statistics. they should also be good sleuths or intelligence agents, detecting signs of future developments that may change those statistics, and thus may change our world. thank you for your kind attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches