samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
and bargaining, changes in patterns of international trade, etc. thus, i am very glad that this wide range of perspectives will be covered in our conference. finally, my colleagues and i intend this conference to serve you as a forum to exchange thoughts and ideas. with that, i wish you active participation and fruitful discussions. thank you. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches

gediminas simkus : descending from the inflation peak - lessons and insights welcome address by mr gediminas simkus, chairman of the board of the bank of lithuania, at the economics conference " descending from the inflation peak : lessons and insights ", vilnius, 3 october 2023. * * * dear guests, distinguished speakers, ladies and gentlemen, dear all, it is my great pleasure to welcome you to the 7th annual economics conference, organised by the bank of lithuania. this year's topic is on descending from the inflation peak and the lessons so far. in the words of john f. kennedy, change is the law of life. and that is true speaking of economic life over the last year. most importantly, inflation was forced to change its direction and is on the way down. the specifics of the current inflation, monetary policy stance and how we proceed from here will be addressed by our keynote speaker, doctor philip lane. i am sure that for a large audience of distinguished policymakers, academics, and people having a general interest in economics, philip needs no introduction. he is ecb's chief economist and a member of the executive board. dear philip, thanks for being with us. ladies and gentlemen, inflation demon has many heads and we need to chop - off all. in lithuania and the euro area more generally, this particular episode was sparked by a number of unprecedented supply - side shocks hitting the economy in quick succession. a once - ina - lifetime global pandemic, supply - chain bottlenecks, the return of the full - scale war to the european continent, energy crises were severe disruptions. also highlighting the importance of the supply - side shocks to the economy. prompt response of fiscal and monetary policies was effective. it prevented the economies from a prolonged period of suppressed activity and financial stresses after pandemic shock. inflation, in quite literate terms, was an unexpected price to pay. a year ago, it peaked well into the double digits in lithuania. the good news – it's on the declining path since and approached 4 percent based on september's flash estimate. the reasons for such a trend are twofold. first, abating supply - side pressures as pandemic - related bottlenecks eased and energy prices declined. for lithuania, the latter is of particular importance. energy was not only directly accountable for one - third of the average annual inflation last year, but it also contributed to price increases through indirect channels. second,
integration with our asean neighborhood will require continued vigilance on the part of the bsp and more active involvement from our banks. most of the policy directions i have outlined are geared to sustain what we have started even before the global financial crisis. we believe that this strategy remains appropriate amid heightened volatility in the market. today ’ s summit issues a timely notice for us to be flexible and adaptive to shifting market dynamics. for investors in particular, a good strategy is to recognize and seek out new opportunities. the philippines offers a host of them, and it is our hope that you also see and positively respond to their great, untapped potential. thank you, and have a pleasant afternoon. bis central bankers ’ speeches

philippine economy mirrors the southeast asian experience. after the pursuit of strategic, targeted and purposeful reforms over the last two decades, the philippines now enjoys an economic bright spot, with 76 consecutive quarters of positive gdp growth. moreover, this sustained economic expansion was achieved in an environment of generally low and stable inflation. the continued stability and soundness of the financial system also contributed to the economy ’ s resurgence. the external sector has been a pillar of strength for many years. given expectations of strong growth of 7. 0 - 8. 0 percent over the medium term, we expect philippine contribution to the overall asean + 3 output to rise over time. 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches so, is it time to relax? in fact, the concept note prepared for this seminar comprehensively captures the emerging challenges that confront the asean + 3 economies in the new world order and during this time of the fourth industrial revolution. among the issues that the distinguished panel of speakers will be addressing today include those relating to demographic transition, the rapid rise of disruptive technologies, raising productivity, and accelerating further market integration among the asean + 3 economies. the way governments tackle policymaking and the way businesses are operated are being altered by megatrends like those earlier mentioned, along with a rebalancing of the world economy, furious urbanization, climate change, and the adoption of inward - looking policies. these trends cannot be ignored. they contribute to the uncertainties faced by the region and by the individual countries that comprise it. as we confront these challenges, globalization and greater regional integration remain key. however, i believe that for these growth engines to continue to pay off amid global uncertainties, there has to transpire a seamless fusion between conventional growth models and forwardlooking strategies aimed at ensuring sustained economic resilience in a technology - savvy future. this is indeed an exciting time for the region and there is no better venue to discuss our endless potential and possibilities. we look forward to the insights our keynote speaker and distinguished panelists will share with us today. thank you and welcome once again to the bsp - amro joint seminar! 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches
4 in an increasingly complex risk landscape, this gives supervisors more time to focus on the most material risks facing banks. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches so, embedding a strong data culture in supervision is no longer a choice. it is an unquestionable business need. but how exactly do we go about it? supervision at your fingertips : suptech tools clearly, not all supervisors are data scientists. their job is to scrutinise the health of the banks they supervise. bearing in mind the challenges they may face, our goal must be to implement data - driven solutions in a safe and user - friendly way. at ecb banking supervision, a key element of our new digital strategy 2024 - 28 is the idea of "'supervision at your fingertips ". the aim is to enable supervisors to access key information about the risks facing the banks they supervise in just a few clicks, combining the powers of technology, data and innovation. think of it as a " smartphone for supervisors " with a wide range of applications that supervisors can customise to their tasks and preferences. over the past three years, we have been working with national supervisors to develop supervisory technology ( suptech ) tools in order to address a number of pressing business needs. 5 more than a dozen of these tools have already gone live and are making the daily work of supervisors easier. today, over 3, 500 colleagues across european banking supervision can use them to improve risk analysis, the consistency of decision - making and collaboration. athena, a platform driven by artificial intelligence, is one example. it helps supervisors find, extract and compare information from a wide variety of sources, ranging from bank documents and supervisory reports to news articles and other external data. think of it as chatgpt for supervision – helping supervisors identify patterns, extract key insights and improve the quality of their work. but with the development of generative ai, we are also entering uncharted waters. as with any new technology, it brings the challenge of the unknown. this means we have to take all the necessary steps to guard against potential risks. for this reason, athena operates in a safe and secure environment tailored to our supervisory needs, providing supervisors with robust results while ensuring data confidentiality. moreover, we have been clear that supervisors will remain in the driving seat when it comes to taking final supervisory decisions. supervisory judgement is – and always will be – at the core of effective, risk - based supervision. at the same time,

come together and foster a " community of practice " to share knowledge, data, best practices and ai tools ". see bank for international settlements ( 2024 ), " artificial intelligence and the economy : implications for central banks ", bis annual economic report, 25 june. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches
as well as adding to the global demand for resources, this had particular significance for australia because japan ’ s proximity lowered transport costs and made certain mineral discoveries economically viable. see blainey ( 1963 ) pp187, 190. see blainey ( 1963 ) p303 ; mckenzie see belkar, cockerell and kent ( 2007 ). see blainey ( 1963 ) p194 ; doran ( 1984 ) ; withers et al ( 1985 ). see blainey, ( 1963 ), p248. see blainey, ( 1963 ), p289. this boom differed from the episodes in the 19th century in that it was more capital intensive. partly this reflected supply factors, as global capital markets had developed significantly since the turn of the century. partly it was also technological, as some of the resources could only be developed with large - scale investment. mining investment rose from about ½ per cent of gdp in 1960 to a peak of almost 3 per cent in the early 1970s. export prices rose strongly, particularly in the early 1970s, resulting in a large swing in income towards exporters. the current account of the balance of payments moved to surplus, an outcome that has not been repeated since. employment grew strongly in the second half of the 1960s, by close to 3 per cent per annum, due to large - scale immigration and increased female participation. wages rose strongly, and the centralised wage fixing system spread the increases widely through the community. the nominal exchange rate remained relatively fixed until towards the end of the boom, the eventual appreciation of the exchange rate in the early 1970s coming too late to benefit the economy. money supply growth picked up to over 20 per cent per annum in the early 1970s and fiscal policy also became expansionary. inflation rose sharply. tariff cuts were introduced in 1973 to help control inflation, but the benefit of this was later offset by the imposition of import quotas to try to protect manufacturing jobs. by the mid 1970s, both the australian economy and the global economy were experiencing severe difficulties, primarily flowing from the adverse consequences of very high inflation. the boom therefore ended ; mining investment fell to low levels, and commodity prices stagnated. ( d ) the late 1970s / early 1980s boom the fourth major boom was in the late 1970s / early 1980s. this boom was largely driven by the energy sector, in particular steaming coal, oil and gas. this followed the second of the oil price shocks in the late 1970s. in addition, the increased cost

sydney, 25 september. [ 11 ] using a broader measure of essential expenses, these figures rise to about 15 per cent for all borrowers and about 50 per cent for highly leveraged borrowers. [ 12 ] for a broader discussion about the decision to float the australian dollar, see stevens g ( 2013 ), ‘ the australian dollar : thirty years of floating ’, speech to the australian business economists ’ annual dinner, sydney, 21 november. blade disclaimer notice
analysis can provide an important contribution to this work. although we now have better information about household debt, important pieces of the puzzle are still missing. the riksbank ’ s data collection was a first measure and there is no older, historical information on debts at the household level. and, as many others have said before me, we do not have any information on household wealth either. today, i intend to speak above all about the new results from the analysis of the riksbank ’ s data on the debts of individual ’ s and households and explain how these relate to other studies of household indebtedness. i also want to explain why the results should be viewed in the light of the vulnerabilities in the swedish financial system. let me begin, however, by saying a few words about why household debt is a cause of concern to the riksbank at all. international stakeholders, for example the imf, the oecd and the eu, have also been concerned. the risks associated with high household indebtedness have also been discussed at other central banks. the riksbank warned about these risks already prior to the financial crisis ( see, for example the speech made by stefan ingves on 4 october 2013 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches household debt can threaten sustainable growth the riksbank has long pointed out the risks associated with the development of household debt. when household debt is analysed, the debts are usually placed in relation to something else. as most households pay their borrowing costs using their current incomes rather than their assets, the debt ratio, that is debts in relation to disposable incomes, is often used as an illustrative measure of risk. 2 since 1995, the aggregate household debt ratio, that is total household debt as a percentage of disposable income, has increased from 90 to 174 per cent, and it is expected to continue to increase in the years immediately ahead. although the aggregate debt ratio has grown somewhat more slowly in recent years, it is still very high in an historical perspective ( see chart 1 ). chart 1. aggregate debt ratio per cent sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank this has led to the households becoming increasingly sensitive to shocks such as a loss of income, falling asset prices or rising interest rates. our primary concern is not that the households will cause the banks any major loan losses. as we have pointed out for some time, our assessment is that this risk is limited. however,

riksbank can do is to inspire confidence in the inflation target, which can in turn provide a starting point for the negotiations. the inflation target and the industrial agreement have worked well together since 1997. they can continue to do so. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches
. in europe, it seems the banking industry is very prudent in front of new investments. this may partly reflect caution due to over investments in the past, as for 2 k. but it may also mirror the risks currently a deficient vision of the future. maybe there are not enough incentives – such as competition? * * * can regulation be used to enhance competition? this was the case with the internal market programme. twelve or fifteen national regulations were replaced by a harmonized one. active competition policy was pursued. so a level playing field was created in a great number of sectors. and the regulatory costs were lower than in the past. but in general, regulation can be a double - edged sword. the first priority is that markets are dynamic and search for growth. sometimes, however, regulation is also required where market failure is evident. the eu commission's regulation ( 2560 ) on euro payment fees was the first step towards forcing the banking sector to do something about the intra - eu cross - border payment systems. by regulating the fees that banks were able collect from cross - border euro - denominated payments within the eu, the commission – in effect – cut the banks'income and forced them to develop cost saving measures in the processing of these payments. the new draft on the new legal framework for payments is coming soon. this framework should have the effect of harmonising the general terms of payment transmission throughout europe. this means that a payment initiated by a finnish customer in helsinki to an italian bank's customer in milan or a portuguese bank's customer in lisbon to a german bank's customer in wilhelmshaven - or wherever in europe - must not take longer than 3 banking days. knowing the diverse terms of payment in use today, this will inevitably force the banking industry to improve their operations. this development will also benefit all companies involved with europe - wide trade. banks have committed themselves to creating the single euro payments area, sepa through their cooperation forum the epc ( european payments council ). this development should result in an integrated euro payments market. work on the definition of common payment instruments is in progress, but the infrastructure for handling them is still obscure. different levels of ict usage in europe and different traditions cause controversies in this sepa work. the only option for europe is to succeed in creating such an internal payments infrastructure that benefits the end customer and enhances economic growth. we must not build sepa according to the lowest common denominator ; instead

in helsinki and virtually, will help us in deepening our understanding of the global economy – including the dynamics driving the current great power competition, which always also matters to smaller countries like finland. thank you for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
legislation it has been shown conclusively that existing laws do not prevent private legislation from changing government decisions on budgetary aggregates ( tax benefits are granted which reduce revenues, and laws are passed which raise expenses ), imposing an order of priorities on the government different from the one it approved, and adversely affecting growth and employment. an amendment to the law is required which will ensure that all initiatives by knesset members will have to be checked in the light of the budget policy determined by the government. all the private bills introduced in the last two years must be covered by this amendment. 2. monetary policy, aimed at preserving price stability and supporting financial stability. the more firmly established this stability, the lower the rate of interest needed to maintain it. stability and low interest are another essential key to sustainable growth. without stability, there is no investment, and without investment, there is no growth. certain additional steps are required to complete monetary policy, just as in the case of fiscal policy : – the abolition of the ceiling on treasury bills issues. – the abolition of the exchange - rate band. – the abolition of the remaining foreign - currency controls, and making the nis fully convertible. – unification of tax rates on interest income of individuals and mutual funds, without affecting total revenue from this source. these adjustments would shift the center of gravity of monetary policy from the banks to the financial markets, and enable price stability to be achieved at a lower rate of interest. furthermore, and no less important, these changes would make the financial markets more efficient, improve their competitive structure, and thereby encourage savings and support growth. 3. in addition to the two anchors mentioned above, we must give attention to various aspects of the labor market and wages policy in the public sector. the relevant topics are : a. the law currently in force determines that the minimum wage is updated according to the average wage. to avoid exposing the minimum wage to irrelevant changes in the wage structure in the economy, and to comply with the original concept underlying the law ( ensuring a minimum income for workers at low wage levels ), it would be better to link the minimum wage to the consumer price index ( cpi ). in order to share the fruits of economic growth with those at low wage levels, the possibility of adding the rise in productivity should be examined. efficient methods of enforcing the law should be introduced. at the same time, the salaries of the most senior public - sector office holders, which are currently indexed to the average wage, should

will encourage them requires a transparent and credible long - term policy.
. finally, i would like to express my sincere thanks to all of the staff, both in the central bank and financial regulator, for their work and commitment in contributing to a very successful year. this concludes my opening remarks. my colleagues and i are now available to answer questions. 3 / 3

in much the same was as the fomc is focused on the us as a whole, the governing council of the ecb has to take a euro - area - wide perspective : while national developments have to be taken into consideration, monetary policy cannot be tailored to the specific needs of individual member states. the real problem with heterogeneity, and that is a concern to me, is that a number of countries have obviously failed to meet the obligations and requirements of a currency union. the persistent problems of countries in refinancing their debt are only the symptoms of the problems, not the problem itself. the financial crisis has revealed unsustainable developments in some member countries – developments which were already in existence before the crisis : too much public spending, unproductive use of capital inflows, losses of competitiveness. those were just some of the shortcomings which had been carelessly neglected, not least by the financial markets. painful adjustment processes, including structural reform and budget consolidation, are essential to restore the ability of the countries concerned to live up to the demands of the single monetary policy. 3. 2 fiscal stabilisation measures were necessary but they undermined the basic founding principles of emu ensuring financial stability in the euro area required and justified fiscal aid for greece and the establishment of a temporary stabilisation mechanism. nevertheless, these particular measures have undermined the foundations of emu. the establishment of emu was based on principles that were deemed necessary in order to make the euro a stable currency. according to the principle of subsidiarity, economic policies other than monetary policy remain the responsibility of national governments. with regard to fiscal policy, rules and institutional arrangements were established to ensure sound fiscal policies in the member states. furthermore, a “ no bail - out ” clause stipulated national responsibility of each country for repaying its own public debt. bis central bankers ’ speeches rules for sound public finances are of particular importance in a monetary union since the incentives for excessive borrowing are even greater in a monetary union than they are anyway. excessive borrowing can also place a strain on the conduct of a stability - oriented monetary policy. unsound public finances are the achilles heel of a monetary union of independent states. purchases of government bonds for monetary policy purposes, for example, harbour the risk of blurring the boundaries between monetary and fiscal policy, particularly given high government deficits and debt levels. this might harm the credibility of monetary policy. a little earlier i said that monetary