speeches published date : 27 may 2022 welcome remarks by mr edward s. robinson, deputy managing director ( economic policy ) & chief economist, monetary authority of singapore, at the 9th asian monetary policy forum on 27 may 2022 1 good morning, md mas mr ravi menon, president nus and chairman of the abfer council, professor tan eng chye, fellow central bankers, distinguished speakers, ladies and gentlemen. together with my co - organisers, professor bernard yeung and professor steve davis, i am pleased to welcome you to the 2022 asian monetary policy forum. 2 in its ninth year now, the ampf comes at an especially opportune time for macroeconomists to advance the discussion on emergent issues in the global economy. after the great moderation, the world has experienced a series of severe shocks, each presenting a stern test for policymakers. 3 the two most recent disruptions — the covid - 19 pandemic and the russia - ukraine conflict — have raised fresh issues for monetary economics and international finance. soon after the lehman crisis, queen elizabeth, during a visit to the lse, posed an inconvenient question : “ why didn ’ t anyone see this coming? ” conceivably if her majesty made another visit today, she may very well ask the same question about global inflation. a comprehensive research agenda to address this query would require pulling together at least four strands of concerns. 4 the first is about the need for a careful identification of each economic shock. early on during the covid - 19 crisis, several macroeconomists including martin eichenbaum and jason furman recognised that the global pandemic was imposing an unfamiliar mix of shocks. it was not simply that the pandemic lowered aggregate supply by making workers ill, or that mobility restrictions reduced demand from private consumption. instead, dynamic interactions between the supply and demand disturbances were causing discontinuous shifts. 5 the current spate of inflationary shocks, including those catalysed by geopolitical events in february, has also highlighted that the supply side can be pertinent for business cycle gyrations, alongside the more commonly - recognised aggregate demand fluctuations. supply - side factors can no longer be regarded as low - frequency phenomena relevant only as determinants of long - term growth. rather, in a globalised world, shocks in one jurisdiction can lead to gridlock in production via supply chain linkages, leading to short -

ravi menon : money at a crossroads - public or private digital money? summary of panel remarks ( virtual ) by mr ravi menon, managing director of the monetary authority of singapore, at the imf seminar on money at a crossroads, 18 april 2022. * * * summary of remarks by ravi menon a crypto asset or token is about digitally representing anything we regard as having value, putting encryption around it on a distributed ledger, where the ownership of the asset can be ascertained and verified, and it can be transferred securely. in singapore and in mas, we are excited about the potential to build a crypto or tokenised economy. cryptocurrencies, about which there is so much excitement, is just one sliver of the crypto ecosystem or economy comprising a variety of tokenised assets. cryptocurrencies are crypto assets which perform a payments function and try to mimic money. private cryptocurrency is unlikely to perform the functions of money because its value is unstable and it is not backed by the central bank or the government. stablecoins are pegged to a fiat currency and therefore derives stability, but it is not clear that all stablecoins, which purport to have a backing, are indeed backed adequately. without such backing, it is hard to imagine how they will fulfil the function of money. stablecoins will become a more prominent feature as long as their backing is strong. they could potentially challenge the currencies of some smaller emerging market economies. if they are used widely, they could lead to currency substitution and the potential loss of money sovereignty in these countries. with respect to central bank digital currencies ( cbdcs ), mas makes a careful distinction between wholesale cbdcs and retail cbdcs. both are digital currencies issued by the central bank. for wholesale cbdcs, mas sees a variety of potential use cases. they can be used in the interbank system on a decentralised ledger to facilitate cross - border payments and transactions. mas has conducted successful experiments with the industry and other central banks on wholesale cbdcs. this is an interesting development to watch. most of the impactful use cases are going to be in wholesale cbdcs for, for example, cross - border payments, and cross - border trade finance. for retail cbdcs, mas is keeping an open mind. we want to make sure we have the technology, governance, and policy structures to