and most liquid settlement asset of all. however, while central bank money is currently available to commercial banks in digital form in our centralised payment systems ( in the euro area this means the target2 system ), it is not currently available on blockchain. in other words, central bank money cannot be used to buy and settle tokenised assets directly on blockchain ( equities, bonds, units in funds recorded on a blockchain ). but if we do not adapt central bank money to the tokenised world, players could turn to other, less secure settlement assets, generating both counterparty and liquidity risk and, ultimately, financial stability risk. if this were to happen, it would be a real step back in terms of financial stability. indeed, these other settlement assets – first - generation crypto - assets such as bitcoin, or secondgeneration assets, also known as stablecoins – do not possess the three attributes of a currency ( i. e. a unit of account, instrument of exchange and store of value ) and cannot therefore be characterised as one. they also represent specific money laundering, liquidity, market and operational risks that may turn out to be systemic and raise monetary sovereignty issues for global stablecoins such as the one launched by paypal. to deal with these risks and ensure financial stability, it is vital to establish a clear and appropriate regulatory framework : the european mica regulation, which came into force in june 2023, covers the issuance of and provision of financial services on crypto - assets and stablecoins and is a major step forward. however, regulation is only one building block : central banks need understand these new technologies and innovate to be able to provide central bank money services adapted to a financial system in digital transition, both for exchanges between financial intermediaries, which have the greatest impact on financial stability, and for day - to - day payments made by citizens, both domestically and across borders. the ecb and eurosystem ncbs have made a major commitment in this area with the digital euro project, which has just entered a new preparatory phase with experiments in " wholesale ” central bank digital currency exchanges between financial intermediaries ( slide 8 ) the banque de france is playing a highly proactive role in this quest to pave the way for the issuance of a central bank digital currency. this is especially the case for uses between financial intermediaries, on which we have been conducting experiments

emmanuel tumusiime - mutebile : the impact of oil price volatility and its implications for the economy and for macroeconomic stability speech by mr emmanuel tumusiime - mutebile, governor of the bank of uganda, at the dialogue on “ the impact of oil price volatility and its implications for the economy and for macroeconomic stability ”, kampala, 25 february 2015. * * * good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, 1. introduction the theme of my talk will be uncertainty about the future path of oil prices and what this means for the medium to long term future of the ugandan economy. uncertainty is a very important concept in economics, in particular because it has profound implications for long term investment decisions by the private sector. uncertainty in respect to oil prices, and thus public revenue in oil producing economies, also has important implications for fiscal sustainability. in the second half of 2014 the global oil market suffered one of its largest price shocks for many years. inevitably, this has led economic agents to re - examine their long term forecasts for oil prices. for example, one of the sources of economic forecasts that we use in the bank of uganda had made a forecast, in march 2014, of crude oil prices at $ 148 per barrel in the second quarter of 2019, the same source has now revised down its forecast for the crude oil price in the same period to $ 81 per barrel, a fall of 46 percent. i do not intend to offer my own opinion on the price of oil over the long term, because it is almost impossible to make such a forecast with any reasonable degree of confidence. the 2014 oil price shock, unexpected as it was, has forced many analysts to question the assumptions which previously underlay their long term forecasts and, as a result, the future path of oil prices has become much more uncertain. the greater uncertainty about the future price of oil has prompted major oil companies to put on hold their investments in high cost oil production projects, such as deep water drilling in the atlantic ocean. oil companies are now much less confident than they were before mid 2014 that long term oil prices will be high enough to allow these high cost projects to be viable. the key point that i want to emphasise is not that long term oil prices will necessarily be lower than previously forecast, it is that the future long term path of oil prices has become much less certain. in 10 years time, global oil prices could be above $ 100 per barrel, but