euro area annual inflation is expected to rise to 10 % in september. this means that average inflation during the third quarter stood at 9. 3 %, a figure somewhat higher than anticipated in the ecb's last forecast exercise ( 9. 1 % ). 3 more importantly, euro area inflation is expected to remain above 9 % during the fourth quarter. the rise in energy and food prices is the main factor behind the high levels of inflation in the region. the depreciation of the euro has also contributed to upward price pressures, particularly by increasing the price of commodity imports. specifically, according to the flash estimate, the price increases over the past year in the energy and food components of the consumer price index stood at 37 % and 11 %, respectively, in september. these two components account for almost 70 % of the increase in consumer prices in the euro area over the past year. nonetheless, inflationary pressures are also spreading to the less volatile components of the consumer basket. underlying inflation, which excludes food and energy consumer prices, is expected to hit 4. 8 % in september. this is more than double the figure recorded at the beginning of the year ( 2. 3 % in january ). in this case, certain pandemic - related factors may have facilitated a faster than expected pass - through of inflationary pressures. first, the bottlenecks i referred to earlier, which since 2021 have constrained the supply response to growth in demand. but also the strong demand for home renovation or, more recently, the rapid pace of resumption of activities involving more social contact, after two years of demand constraints. 4 moreover, the labour market has so far performed relatively robustly in europe, an issue i will come back to later. in this context, and in view of the escalation of the energy conflict with russia, we expect the inflationary episode in the euro area to be more intense and longer - lasting than we initially thought before the summer. this is reflected in the latest ecb staff forecasts, which, https : / / ec. europa. eu / eurostat / documents / 2995521 / 14698140 / 2 - 30092022 - ap - en. pdf / 727d4958 - dd57 - de9f - 996599562e1286bf these projections were published on 8 september, with a data cut - off date of 22 august. pacce, del rio and sanchez ( 2022

flows to emerging economies. as regards the medium and long term, the nature and functioning of transactions differ from those for short - term transactions. the financial services provided by banks for longer - dated terms are, essentially, financing and the extension of guarantees and bonds needed to participate in international tender procedures. on many occasions these are syndicated operations, or operations performed by several banks from various countries. we should highlight here the role played by export credit companies. this activity is subject to the rules set under the oecd arrangement on officially supported export credits, or the oecd consensus, as it is usually called. the oecd consensus the oecd consensus, signed in 1976, has regulatory status in the european union and seeks to prevent financial facilities granted by a state to an exporter from distorting bis central bankers ’ speeches competition and giving an exporter an unfair advantage against competitors from other countries. the consensus also works on the assumption that official support is warranted only if there is a “ market failing ” that prevents the private sector from properly meeting its task as a financier. the consensus sets common rules for exports in the medium and long term, understanding as such terms over two years, and specifies that official support may take the form of either direct public financing of the export, or the underwriting by the public sector of the refund of the export financing granted by private institutions. in spain, cesce ( spanish export credit insurance agency ) pursues its activity on behalf the state, complementing that of the banking system. among its operations, what affords the greatest value added is the coverage of credit risk arising from a spanish export, of a relatively high amount, at a term of over two years, habitually financed by a bank. such coverage is the norm for exports towards countries with appreciable risk and in transactions which, frequently, have the sovereign guarantee of the importing country. cesce also provides underwriting on the state ’ s behalf for the political risks associated with exports ( the main such risk being default by the sovereign or by the institutions backed by the sovereign ), except in operations at less than two years in eu and oecd countries, where it is considered that there is a sufficiently developed private underwriting market ; it also extends guarantees and bonds for participating in international tender procedures and projects. from 1998 to 2007 there was a strong expansion in international banking activity in financing for spanish companies ’ international activity. banks took on a relevant