, respectively. the third - quarter estimate was the strongest quarterly growth in more than a decade. more important, four of the past five quarters have seen growth rates of 3. 5 percent or more, with only the wintry first quarter as the exception. the philadelphia fed ’ s survey of professional forecasters estimated that fourth - quarter growth would moderate to 2. 7 percent. some recent tracking estimates are now placing it over 3 percent. we won ’ t know what the official first estimate will be until the end of this month, but even that slight slowdown would lead to full - year growth in 2014 that is a bit higher than many had expected. bis central bankers ’ speeches looking forward, i believe we will see growth averaging about 3 percent in 2015 before edging down to a long - term trend growth rate of about 2. 4 percent. recent data also show a stronger contribution from consumer spending, which accounts for more than two - thirds of the gdp. significant improvement in household balance sheets and a stronger employment picture have helped support a more confident consumer. real personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) have grown at a 4. 5 percent annual pace over the past three months. manufacturing also continues to show strength. recent figures from the philadelphia fed ’ s manufacturing business outlook survey, the national ism manufacturing index, and industrial production all indicate that the manufacturing sector is expanding at a healthy pace. strong consumer and business spending has supported consistent gains in the labor market. nonfarm employment expanded by 252, 000 jobs in december, giving us 11 consecutive months of 200, 000 - plus job growth. for the full year, we had average monthly gains of 246, 000 in 2014, compared with 194, 000 in 2013. in fact, we added nearly 3 million jobs in 2014, the most in a calendar year since 1999. those job gains have led to a steady decline in the unemployment rate, which is now 5. 6 percent, down more than a point from a year ago. even the broader measure of unemployment, referred to as u - 6, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part time for economic reasons, has fallen to 11. 2 percent. inflation is running at about 1. 5 percent, which is below the fed ’ s long - term target of 2 percent, as measured by the year - over - year change in the price index for pce. yet, i and many other economists anticipate that inflation will gradually move toward the target as the transitory

treasuries portfolio, except for those assets held as collateral for traditional discount window operations. should the fiscal authority ask the central bank to engage in lending outside of its normal operations, the fiscal authority should exchange government securities for the nongovernment assets that would accumulate on the central bank ’ s balance sheet as a result. this type of swap would ensure that the full authority and responsibility for fiscal matters remained with the treasury and congress and the fed ’ s balance sheet remained essentially all treasuries. congress has mandated the goals of monetary policy to promote price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long - term interest rates. asking monetary policy to take on ever more fiscal responsibilities undermines the discipline of the fiscal authorities and the independence of the central bank. central banks and monetary policy are not and cannot be real solutions to the unsustainable fiscal paths many countries currently face. the only real answer rests with the fiscal authorities ’ ability to develop credible commitments to sustainable fiscal paths. it is a difficult and painful task to be sure, but a monetary solution is a bridge to nowhere at best, and the road to perdition at worst – a world of rising and costly inflation and a weakening of fiscal discipline. references plosser, charles i., “ credible commitments and monetary policy after the crisis, ” speech presented at the swiss national bank monetary policy conference, zurich, switzerland, september 24, 2010. plosser, charles i., “ ensuring sound monetary policy in the aftermath of crisis, ” speech presented at the u. s. monetary policy forum : the initiative on global markets, new york city, february 27, 2009. sargent, thomas, “ where to draw lines : stability versus efficiency, ” new york university working paper ( september 6, 2010 ). sargent, thomas, and neil wallace, “ some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic, ” federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review, 5 ( fall 1981 ), pp. 1 – 17. see plosser ( 2009 ) and plosser ( 2010 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches