to be a responsible stakeholder. we seek to achieve this — by putting in place mechanisms to closely monitor market developments and behaviours ; by continually improving our regulatory regimes to mitigate risks in the financial system ; by building buffers and planning for contingencies on sunny days, and by swiftly implementing contingency plans when storm clouds approach ; and by contributing to policy deliberation and standard setting at international regulatory forums. we also build resilience by enabling market participants to seize new opportunities to deepen and expand hong kong ’ s role as an ifc. this brings me to my third word : opportunity. opportunity for many decades hong kong has been intermediating the trade, investment, and financial flows between china and the world. today over 60 per cent of foreign direct investment into the mainland is routed through hong kong. a similar figure applies to china ’ s outward investments. hong kong is the pre - eminent fund - raising venue for mainland corporates, through equity ipos, debt issuance, bank lending, and various forms of private investment. in recent years, two major developments in financial linkage have been gaining momentum. one is the continuous opening of the mainland ’ s financial markets to global investors through the various northbound connect schemes with hong kong. the other is the increasing southbound traffic, again through the connect schemes, that enables mainland investors to invest in overseas financial assets. these are significant developments. they demonstrate china ’ s confidence and willingness to be connected to the global financial markets. the southbound schemes also send a clear 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches message : as china ’ s economy grows and its people become more affluent, both institutional and retail investors look for more diversified allocation to overseas assets. let me offer some context here. when we think about the northbound traffic, we should bear in mind that, in global terms, china ’ s stock and bond markets are second in size only to their us counterparts. for the southbound traffic, we are talking about managing the wealth of the world ’ s second largest economy and most populous country. and we are only in the early stages of these two - way flows through the connect schemes. hong kong is the natural choice of venue to host the connect schemes. quite apart from our excellent ecosystem and proven resilience, we have a strong record as the mainland ’ s trusted partner in its entry into the global financial system. we have been able to assist in achieving the desired outcomes while ensuring the integrity and stability of the mainland ’

stronger than expected, which, combined with a lower exchange rate, helped too. the positive story for non - mining investment can be seen in this next graph, which shows the bank's successive forecasts over the years as well as the actual outcomes – the black line ( graph 5 ). for a number of years we were forecasting a lift in investment that did not come. during this period of flat business investment, glenn stevens gave speeches bemoaning the lack of animal spirits in the business community. but over the past couple of years, things finally turned around. the long - forecast pick - up in investment finally arrived and it has been stronger than expected. we expect this upswing in investment to continue for a while yet. 8 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches the fact that growth was stronger than expected is largely accounted for by a positive surprise on both mining and non - mining investment. the terms of trade were also stronger than expected, which, combined with a lower exchange rate, helped too. the positive story for non - mining investment can be seen in this next graph, which shows the bank's successive forecasts over the years as well as the actual outcomes – the black line ( graph 5 ). for a number of years we were forecasting a lift in investment that did not come. during this period of flat business investment, glenn stevens gave speeches bemoaning the lack of animal spirits in the business community. but over the past couple of years, things finally turned around. the long - forecast pick - up in investment finally arrived and it has been stronger than expected. we expect this upswing in investment to continue for a while yet. 9 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches in the context of its forecast evaluation, the board at its recent meeting also reviewed the various arguments that have been made by commentators for alternative courses of monetary policy. the timing of this review has no particular policy significance. it is good practice to consider the issues and arguments from all angles, and we do this as part of our regular processes. as you know, following its deliberations at the november meeting, the board again decided to maintain the cash rate at 1. 5 per cent, where it has been since august 2016. the central messages also remain the same. first, the economy is moving in the right direction and further progress is expected in lowering unemployment and having inflation consistent with the target. second, the probability of an increase in interest rates is higher than the probability