mixed dynamics. business price expectations continued to decline in april - may. inflation expectations of households came in at 9. 3 - 9. 4 % during this period. however, we expect that inflation decline to 4 % will bring down inflation expectations of households and businesses. analysts ’ expectations remain anchored at the inflation target of close to 4 %. fifth. monetary conditions are softening. this is driven by changing expectations of domestic and external financial market players. first, this is enabled by revised expectations as to the path of the bank of russia key rate ; second, by an adjustment in expectations and yields in the external financial market against the background of changes in major central banks ’ rhetoric – which i have mentioned. ofz yields are declining in this environment, enabling a potential reduction in deposit and lending rates. between april and may, a number of major banks revised downwards their interest rates on several deposit products ; interest rates on mortgage loans were also beginning to trend down. today ’ s decision to cut the key rate alongside the signal we have sent out will work to solidify these trends. medium - term outlook. the outcome of opec + negotiations remains uncertain. we look to further concerted actions by deal parties to warrant smooth oil price dynamics over the forecast horizon. based on their actual movements since the year start, we have upgraded the average annual urals crude price in our baseline scenario from $ 60 to $ 65 per barrel in 2019 and from $ 55 to $ 60 per barrel in 2020. we retain our conservative assumptions for 2021 whereby the oil price is expected to reach $ 55 per barrel. key balance of payments figures in the baseline scenario have also been adjusted to oil price movements and the expected dynamics of the global economy. this year ’ s current account balance is estimated to total $ 98 billion ( approx. 6 % of gdp ) and drop subsequently to $ 50 billion ( approx. 3 % of gdp ) in 2021. this is attributed to downward oil price trends and expanding imports as economic growth accelerates. the private sector ’ s financial account balance in 2019 is set to amount to approx. $ 50 billion ( 3 % of gdp ). financial transactions of private sector balance already reached $ 35 billion in the first five months of the year. we expect it to drop substantially in the second half of the year 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches compared to both the past year ’ s last six months and the first six months of this year. the main reasons behind this outlook are as follows. first

loan to be fixed when opening this account. we have had a discussion on this subject, so hopefully this arrangement will become standard practice. focus should also be turning to the issue of long - term housing rent, an item that should possibly be higher up on our agenda. this is in fact an alternative to mortgage loans, which enables those who cannot afford to take out a mortgage loan, but do need better housing conditions. now let me say a few words about financial resources for the real sector. corporates have indeed been more active borrowers this year and credit portfolios have been on the rise. having said this, we realise that this growth has occurred on the back of the need to plug holes — to fight the consequences of the pandemic and lost revenue. the currently low interest rates still have the potential to encourage growth in lending — as a business growth strategy. advancements in the stock market enable corporate customers to attract resources on more favourable terms, which is key to long - term projects. we look to low inflation to carry positive implications for such long - term investment strategies. the financial market should meet the needs of any companies, large and small. we are championing both crowdfunding and factoring for small - sized companies, as well as the growth sector of the moscow exchange. a lot of our efforts are now focused on so - called green finance — a business strategy of environmental responsibility and human capital development aiming to deliver on objectives far beyond profits. companies embracing this strategy should enjoy financing on more favourable terms. we all understand that advancing financial innovations are encouraging competition, in this way giving impetus to a reduction in consumer and business costs. you are well aware of our recently launched and operating faster payments system and the marketplace. we are also exploring the potential launch of a digital ruble — we are indeed prepared for an open discussion on the issue and all its nuances. hopefully, we will hold a dedicated digital ruble meeting with the senators before the end of this year so that we make the right assessment of prospects and risks a national digital currency would involve. now, the last point i would like to comment on in a little more detail is an issue the speaker 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches has already raised, and one we are very concerned about. this is the issue of stock market development. this market is undergoing drastic and rapid changes. retail investment is becoming a mass phenomenon, with the numbers of retail investors growing very rapidly. in two years alone, the