prasarn trairatvorakul : overview of the global economy statement by dr prasarn trairatvorakul, governor of the bank of thailand, at the international monetary and financial committee ( imfc ) twenty - fourth meeting, international monetary fund, washington dc, 24 september 2011. * * * on behalf of the constituency representing brunei darussalam, cambodia, fiji, indonesia, lao p. d. r., malaysia, myanmar, nepal, philippines, singapore, thailand, tonga and vietnam. global and domestic policy actions the imfc is convening at a time when global growth outlook has dimmed considerably since our spring meeting. recovery in major advanced economies has weakened in the last several months. meanwhile, growth in emerging market economies has moderated. stresses in the eurozone periphery have not abated and have impacted larger economies, undermining market confidence. consequently, the clearest risks currently to the global economy are unstable debt dynamics, sluggish economic performance, banking sector funding stresses and policy responses perceived by markets as inadequate. further, risk aversion in the current environment has already had an impact on emerging market economies, including those with strong fundamentals. risks to the global economy and financial system demand decisive policy responses. for advanced economies with some fiscal space, this means a credible medium - term fiscal consolidation plan and policy flexibility to support growth in the near term. eurozone economies under market pressure should deliver credible commitment to fiscal consolidation and implementation. while we welcome the measures announced at the eurozone summit in july, further resolute measures to strengthen the banking sector, credibly restore debt sustainability in the eurozone periphery, and lift long - term growth potential through structural reform are necessary to restore market confidence in the short term and contribute to global growth and stability in the long term. the fund should be pro - active in proposing solutions and mediating their adoption. we believe that progress in structural reforms will be key to restoring growth in the mediumand long - term. although each crisis is different, our efforts during the asian crisis that brought about a relatively fast recovery may provide a useful lesson for countries facing current difficulties. from our experience, the determination to undertake and stick with structural reforms, particularly in the financial sector, was a crucial factor that led to an improvement in confidence, competitiveness and growth. the fund ’ s response i ) global financial safety nets ( gfsn ) with substantial downside risks to growth in the global

past by compilers to flag reported securities as erroneous. a machine learning algorithm approximates the human decision making process. • the register of institutions and affiliates data ( riad ) system develops a prototype for record linkages based on machine learning tools. • the bundesbank ’ s research data and service center ( rdsc ) makes use of record linkage methods that are based on supervised machine learning to automatically link several data sets on companies. the result is a mapping table with company identifiers. • seasonal adjustments are improved by using random forests of conditional inference trees. this approach assesses the seasonal nature of a given time series with a high degrees of accuracy and can be used to improve tests for seasonal patterns in the data. given the increasing importance of european statistical projects and the potential to learn from experience, international cooperation is crucial. under the auspices of the ecb ’ s statistical committee ( stc ), a task force on machine learning has been established with the aim to exchange experiences and ideas for machine learning applications in central banks statistics. seite 10 von 18 deutsche bundesbank, directorate general communications wilhelm - epstein - strasse 14, 60431 frankfurt am main, germany, tel : + 49 ( 0 ) 69 9566 3511 or 3512, fax : + 49 ( 0 ) 69 9566 3077 presse @ bundesbank. de, www. bundesbank. de reproduction permitted only if source is stated. what are the implications for the production of knowledge? the production of central bank statistics is not an end in itself but a central element in the creation of knowledge – knowledge about the structure and functioning of the financial system, knowledge about its interaction with the real economy, and, not least, knowledge about the effects of policy measures affecting the financial system. the last step – the expost evaluation of policy effectiveness – is a crucial element of the transparency and the accountability of central banks. data alone do not provide the necessary information. data need to be combined with appropriate models – be they formal or informal – and with appropriate empirical techniques to generate knowledge. only then can we make statements about causes and effects of policy measures. in short, we need to go beyond correlations and should aim at establishing causalities. improving identification through heterogeneity identification of policy effects using aggregate data is challenging and often not possible. the identification of causal effects thus requires sufficiently detailed data. heterogeneity across institutions, individuals, or countries