of the world economy. in this sense, and beyond the severe negative effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 – 2009, we must recognize that during the past decade the chilean economy was blessed with a benign international scenario, with extraordinarily advantageous commodity prices and financial conditions. notwithstanding, lately the high commodity price cycle has come to an end, hitting commodity - exporting countries including chile. meanwhile, although international financial conditions are still good, the process of monetary policy normalization in some large developed economies is expected to begin soon. we must not forget that copper, our main export, traded at nearly 4 dollars per pound for an extended period, and now it is closer to 3 dollars and may fall further in the long term. moreover, during the last decade, coincidentally with higher prices and supply shortages, investments in mining have increased significantly around the world. bis central bankers ’ speeches chile was no exception. during the 1990s and early 2000s, mining investment averaged 2 to 3 points of the country ’ s gdp. between 2006 and 2013, this figure rose to 5 points of gdp, peaking in 2012 at 6. 5 percent of gdp. this phenomenon not only allowed the country to enlarge its mining capacity, but also created major productive linkages toward other sectors, including construction, trade, and manufacturing industries. the north of our country, especially cities such as iquique, antofagasta, and la serena, has seen strong development and growth thanks to the positive impact of this phenomenon. however, this investment cycle, as has been noted on numerous occasions, has entered a matured stage, resulting in a decline in the number of projects under way. this is also true of other metal - exporting economies like australia and peru, although differing in intensity and timing, and is symptomatic of this phenomenon. however, the aforementioned maturation of the global cycle of copper investment is not the only reason behind the slowdown in mining investment. delays, postponements and cancellations have also been attributed by industry participants to domestic problems related to water shortages and high energy costs, to excessive delay in the definition of projects and legal issues with some of them, as well as to problems with communities and increased costs. among the factors behind the deceleration, there is also the fact that reconstruction works after the earthquake and tsunami of february 2010, including the associated fiscal boost, have tended to recede as the process is completed, explaining also part of the economic slowdown.

##endence of pensions and central bank of chile. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 9 cpi inflation ( * ) ( annual change, percent ) cpiefe inflation ( * ) ( annual change, percent ) - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 june 2014 report sept. 2014 report ( * ) gray area, as from the third quarter of 2014, shows forecast. sources : central bank of chile and national statistics institute ( ine ). figure 10 mpr and expectations ( percent ) mpr fbs, 2nd half august 2014 ees, august 2014 forward ipom septiembre forward, september 2014 report source : central bank of chile. bis central bankers ’ speeches table 1 international baseline scenario assumptions gdp growth 2014 ( f ) report, mar. 14 report, jun. 14 trading partners'gdp 3. 5 3. 7 3. 6 united states eurozone japan china india rest of asia ( excl. japan, china and india ) latin america ( excl. chile ) 2. 2 - 0. 4 1. 5 7. 7 4. 4 3. 9 2. 6 2. 7 1. 2 1. 5 7. 3 5. 4 4. 1 2. 3 lme copper price ( us $ cent / lb ) brent oil price ( us $ / barrel ) terms of trade - 3. 2 world gdp at ppp 3. 1 2015 ( f ) report, mar. 14 report, sept. 14 report, jun. 14 report, sept. 14 2016 ( f ) report, sept. 14 ( annual change, percent ) 3. 4 3. 9 3. 9 3. 8 3. 9 2. 4 1. 0 1. 6 7. 3 5. 4 4. 1 2. 0 2. 1 0. 8 1. 0 7. 3 5. 4 4. 0 1. 7 2. 9 1. 5 1. 1 7. 2 6. 3 4. 5 3. 4 3. 1 1. 7 1. 0 7. 2 6. 2 4. 4 3. 0 3. 0 1. 7 1. 5 7. 2 6. 2 4. 5 2. 6 3. 2 1. 8 1. 2 7. 0 6. 5 4. 8 3. 3 ( levels ) - 0. 9 - 0. 5 - 0. 8 - 0.