controlling interest rates along the way. at the outset, the money - growth ranges were interpreted as intermediate objectives, with the ultimate objective being to reduce inflation. the 1979 monetary policy report described the policy as " the gradual reduction of rates of increase of the monetary aggregates in order to curb inflation. " the initial ranges for money growth were high to reflect the prevailing inflation rate but were to be gradually lowered over time. initially, growth targets were set for m1, m2, and bank credit, although the emphasis was on the m1 measure. but after the downward shift in velocity for m1, associated with the introduction of nationwide now accounts and other innovations, the fomc downplayed its m1 target in late 1982 and shifted emphasis to m2 and m3. with deregulation and innovation making velocity less predictable, in late 1982 the fomc also began a gradual return toward an interest - rate operating strategy. the monetary aggregate targets were described as being " set with the aim of slowing the expansion of money over time to rates consistent with the economy's productive potential at reasonably stable prices. " money - growth targets were evolving toward a point when they would be consistent with the fomc's price - stability objective. in 1995, the language describing the money - growth ranges changed in an important way. up to that point, the money - growth target ranges appeared to apply to the period immediately ahead and were being gradually adjusted to be consistent with a transition toward lower inflation. the money - growth for a good discussion of the evolution of the role of money in monetary policy, see meulendyke ( 1968 ). ranges were re - interpreted at this time to apply not to the period immediately ahead but rather to some intermediate and hypothetical period when price stability would be achieved and the pattern of velocity would be " normal. " the purpose of the m2 growth rate range was " to serve as a benchmark for a rate of growth of m2 that would be expected under conditions of reasonable price stability and historical velocity behavior. " the same language was used thereafter, until the congress last year removed the requirement that money - growth ranges be reported to the congress. there are two explanations for this change in 1995 in the interpretation of the money - growth ranges. first, the new approach reflected a reduced willingness of policymakers to adjust monetary policy in response to deviations of money growth relative to the target range. this reluctance reflected the diminished confidence of policymakers in the signal from such deviations as a result of

– assumes that dubai crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent 35 u. s. dollars per barrel to the range of 45 – 50 dollars per barrel toward the end of the projection period, that is, fiscal 2018. based on this assumption, the bank projects that the timing of the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi for all items less fresh food reaching around 2 percent – the price stability target – will be during fiscal 2017. comparing the projections in the april outlook report with those in the january outlook report, the projected rate of increase in the cpi for fiscal 2016 is lower, mainly reflecting downward revisions in projections for real gdp growth and wage increases. iii. the bank ’ s monetary policy management effects of “ qqe with a negative interest rate ” i would now like to turn to the bank ’ s monetary policy management. the bank introduced “ qqe with a negative interest rate ” at the january 2016 monetary policy meeting ( mpm ). global financial markets had been volatile since the turn of the year, and there was an increasing risk that an improvement in the business confidence of japanese firms and conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed and that the underlying trend in inflation might be negatively affected. “ qqe with a negative interest rate ” was introduced in order to preempt the manifestation of this risk and to maintain momentum toward achieving the price stability target of 2 percent. “ qqe with a negative interest rate ” continues with the qqe framework employed so far but enhances monetary easing effects by adding the new dimension of a negative interest rate. the basic concept of transmission mechanisms of the bank ’ s policy has not changed. let me explain in more detail. first, qqe raises inflation expectations through the bank ’ s strong and clear commitment to achieving the price stability target of 2 percent and through large - scale monetary easing to underpin the commitment. second, qqe puts strong downward pressure on nominal interest rates across the entire yield curve through massive purchases of jgbs. these two channels result in a decline in real interest rates. the decline in real interest rates boosts business fixed investment and housing investment through a decline in interest rates on business and housing loans. the boost in economic activity improves the output gap, which together with rising inflation expectations, lifts prices. “ qqe with a negative interest rate ” exerts stronger downward pressure on interest rates across the entire yield curve by lowering long - term yields through