the fed ’ s accommodative monetary policies. and credit availability to both households and small businesses has improved. in recent months, as i noted earlier, there has been some softness in the economic data. recent indicators of both household spending and business investment have slowed, and industrial output has declined. the commerce department ’ s initial estimate was that real gross domestic product was nearly flat in the first quarter of 2015. if confirmed by further estimates, my guess is that this apparent slowdown was largely the result of a variety of transitory factors that occurred at the same time, including the unusually cold and snowy winter and the labor disputes at ports on the west coast, both of which likely disrupted some economic activity. and some of this apparent weakness may just be statistical noise. i therefore expect the economic data to strengthen. all of that said, the headwinds facing our economy have not fully abated, and, as such, i expect that continued growth in employment and output will be moderate over the remainder of the year and beyond. despite the recovery i noted in home prices and a greater number of home sales, residential construction activity remains quite low. i mentioned the ongoing issues with mortgage credit, but more generally, many years of a weak job market and slow wage gains seem to have induced many people to double - up on housing, and many young adults continue to live with their parents. population growth is creating a need for more housing, whether to rent or to own, and i do expect that continuing job and wage gains will encourage more people to form new households. nevertheless, activity in the housing sector is likely to improve only gradually. the pace of business investment has also been only modest during this recovery, and some of the reasons might persist a while longer. businesses seem not to have had sufficient confidence in the strength and durability of the recovery to undertake substantial capital expenditures. moreover, some analysts have suggested that uncertainty, not only about the strength of the recovery but also about economic policy, could be a significant factor. and the fact that many businesses seem to be holding large amounts of cash may suggest that risk aversion is playing a role. weak investment in the energy sector is also likely to persist. this represents the negative side to the fall in oil prices, one being felt by the oil - producing regions of the country. new domestic oil drilling has plunged over the past few months, and we have also seen a slowdown in activity in sectors that supply oil production companies,

joachim wuermeling : prospects for european monetary union speech by prof joachim wuermeling, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, as part of the " finanzwelt europa " ; series of talks hosted by the landesbank hessen - thuringen and the representation of the state of hessen to the eu, brussels, 11 october 2017. * * * 1. introduction ladies and gentlemen this is the second time i have had the pleasure of visiting the representation of the state of hessen in brussels this year. in june, i spoke about current developments in the euro area at a lunchtime event dedicated to financial market policy. since then, a number of occurrences have affected all of us as european citizens, in our economic and political roles, and also at the bundesbank. the fact that the landesbank hessen - thuringen and the representation of the state of hessen to the eu are coming together to discuss europe as a financial community in its “ finanzwelt europa ” series of lectures highlights the important role that hesse plays in europe ’ s financial framework. i would therefore like to thank the organisers for giving me this opportunity to talk to you. the bundesbank operates in a policy field that is already communitised in the euro area : monetary policy. our bundesbank logo consists of yellow stars on a blue background, which shows how strongly the bundesbank considers itself part of the eurosystem. the eurosystem can only pursue sound monetary policy in a stable currency union. this is why the bundesbank is taking part in the current reform debate. the title of my speech contains a key term : “ prospects ". i believe it is almost more important now than ever to talk about the prospects of the eu and the economic and monetary union. the word “ prospects ” has several layers of meaning. first, it can imply guidance – a compass or a roadmap. what should the eu look like in one, five or ten years ’ time? second, it generates clarity, hope – and ideally even enthusiasm. if the debate surrounding european policy is outlookbased instead of being limited to questions that are certainly important, but rather technical ; if the citizens of europe can see which direction we are heading, then it becomes clear what europe stands for and why it is worth standing up for europe. and third, prospects always point to the future. those who are forward -