forward as to why these relationships may have changed. one reason may be that when inflation has been brought down to a low level, price and wage setting behaviour is different. households as well as firms in sweden count on inflation remaining low. another reason may be increased competition, for instance due to deregulations, globalisation and it commerce. a third reason may be that our assessments of resource utilisation are faulty and the actual level is lower than we have assumed to date. economic growth can then be higher for a time, without generating increased price pressure. a fourth reason may be a higher productivity trend and an ability to produce more goods and services without generating increased prices ; in other words, a higher potential growth rate. this could lead to higher growth being feasible for longer without inflation taking off. there are arguments in favour of each of these explanations but the empirical support is not clear - cut. the issue of potential growth and higher productivity has recently attracted particular attention in the light of economic developments in the united states, for example. productivity growth in sweden has improved but we do not yet have any notable evidence that potential growth has risen as it has in the american economy. an expected increase in trend productivity can also affect components of demand. the prospect of higher corporate profits leads to higher share prices for listed companies. besides prompting companies to step up investment and improving the supply of venture capital, the appreciation of shareholdings may make households feel more wealthy and stimulate consumer demand. the strong upward stock market trend in stockholm in recent years may be a sign that players have incorporated expectations that economic growth in sweden will be appreciably higher than earlier. the relative paths of supply and demand in the swedish economy and the development of the inflation propensity are obviously central issues in the assessment of inflation. if supply and demand develop at the same rate, no inflationary pressure will build up. this is what seems to have happened for a time in the united states. but there is, of course, a risk of one of them predominating and that would alter the conclusions for monetary policy. the questions about trend productivity and other matters that may have altered the relationship between growth and inflation are one of several elements of uncertainty in the riksbank ’ s forecasting work. when constructing assessments and material for decisions it is therefore important to check what is happening and be alert to any signs of changes that should be taken into account. the current assessment the inflation report we are publishing today presents a picture

to meet these challenges over the long term, other policy areas than monetary policy will have to be used. here, i would like to name two important areas : education and oversight of competition. in light of technological developments and population increases, opportunities for life - long education and professional development will be completely decisive. even well - educated professional groups that have previously had low unemployment have started to become aware of a growing risk of being automated out of work. this applies, for instance, to investment advice, financial accounting and legal support. other experts can describe this area better and in more depth than i do here, but to me it seems obvious that increasing numbers of us will have develop our skills further several times in the courses of our professional lives. the other important policy area is that of competition oversight and regulation. new technology brings new actors and some of these have become very large global actors. in markets characterised by high entrance barriers, synergies and network effects, far too much power can easily be concentrated in the hands of a flodberg and loof, staff memo, december 2017. https : / / www. riksbank. se / globalassets / media / rapporter / staffmemo / svenska / 2017 / staff _ memo _ 171220 _ 1 _ sv _ sfx829la. pdf 4 few dominant actors. national politicians play an important part here : in cooperation with other countries, they must oversee and, when necessary, regulate different markets to safeguard the public interest. the contribution of monetary policy at present, we can observe that the very low level of interest rates and the riksbank ’ s asset purchases have had clear effects. inflation, which has shown a rising trend since 2014, was around 2 per cent last year and long - term expectations are anchored to the target. the swedish labour market is moving in the right direction and employment has increased by 240, 000 over the last three years. but unemployment for those born abroad remains high. refugees settling in sweden often lack a strong link to the labour market when they arrive. only half of refugees are in employment after eight years in sweden. but it is positive that their establishment on the labour market looks like it is starting to go faster. as you know, there are no guarantees in the forecasting business. it has taken a decade, but it seems as though the global economy has finally recovered enough from the after - shocks of the financial crisis to start a new chapter and that central banks in our