sabine mauderer : walking the talk - transition plans as catalysts for the net - zero transition speech by dr sabine mauderer, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the 9th green finance forum " changing or pretending – between ambition and reality ", euro finance week, frankfurt am main, 14 november 2023. * * * check against delivery 1 looking back and moving forward ladies and gentlemen, who here still remembers the 1970s? probably not too many of you. let us wind back the clock fifty years. what can we see? first, we see a war in the middle east and surging energy prices. second, as a result, we see decision - makers debating measures to reduce energy costs and to increase energy efficiency. think about the car - free sundays in germany, for instance. third, we see a global economy facing weak growth and high inflation. fifty years later, we are in a different setting but it might be helpful to take into account some of the lessons learned back then. the horrific attacks by hamas on israel on 7 october have sparked a new escalation of violence in the middle east. the conflict is adding to economic uncertainty at a time when the global economy " is limping along " 1 – to use the words of the imf – and inflation has not yet been completely defeated. in particular, the flare - up of violence poses renewed risks to energy prices. this comes just a year and a half after russia's invasion of ukraine sent global energy prices soaring. these events, like those of 1973, highlight just how vulnerable western economies are to swings in energy markets because of their heavy dependence on fossil fuels. there are two important levers we can use to reduce this vulnerability. first, we ought to increase energy efficiency – so we can get more bang for our watts. second, we need to ramp up our use of renewable energy to lower the carbon intensity of the energy we consume. experience gained fifty years ago offers valuable lessons. back then, german companies faced strong economic headwinds, too. amid these challenges, they proved their innovative strength and their ability to adapt their business models to the changing conditions. high energy prices prompted substantial efficiency improvements and research into alternatives to fossil fuels. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches of course, history is not repeating itself – there are important differences between the 1970s and now. today, german firms and other european corporates have understood that they need to wean themselves off

attach to an interest rate change of 25 base points at the next governing council meeting. it should be clear, however, that this probability is critically dependent on the assumption of a fixed interest rate spread between the expected onemonth rate and the deduced expected minimum bid rate. a one base point change in the assumed spread would lead to a change in the probability of a 25 base point hike by 4 base points. given the current money market distortions, however, considerable fluctuations in the spread between the one - month rate and the minimum bid rate cannot be ruled out. one reason could be tensions on the swap market owing to a decline in market participants ’ willingness or ability to take risks. our assessment of financial markets ’ uncertainty regarding their interest rate forecast could also be distorted by the current financial market turmoil because of variations in the risk premia contained in the three - month money market interest rates : in order to estimate market participants'uncertainty regarding their interest rate forecast, we derive the risk - neutral density from options on the three - month euribor future. the more certain market participants are about their point forecast on the three - month euribor, the smaller the standard deviation of the estimates should be. we therefore usually interpret a change in the expected three - month euribor distribution as indicating a change in financial markets ’ expectation of eurosystem policy rates. however, currently we cannot rule out the possibility that the financial market turbulence has caused volatility in the risk premium which is currently contained in the interest rate for unsecuritised three - month - money ( euribor ). in order to obtain an answer to the question of what factors are driving an expected change, we continuously analyse the development of the euribor - forward three - month eonia swap spreads. that is the difference between an implied three - month interest rate derived from euribor rates and one derived from eonia swaps. in general, this spread provides information on liquidity premiums for different maturities in the money market. financial market expectations of a steady decline in money market uncertainty would imply not only an ongoing drop in liquidity premiums but also lower premiums for time periods further in the future compared to less distant time spans. 5. 2. 2 financial - market - based expectations on important economic indicators in addition to this money - market analysis, we monitor the development of capital marketoriented measures of risk premia. assuming freedom from arbitrage in capital markets,