the revision of the inflation forecast is a clear sign that deflation risks have increased once more. global economic outlook the snb ’ s inflation forecast is embedded in a global economic scenario. let me now discuss our assessment of the global economy. global economic developments continue to be mixed. the us, uk and china all saw robust growth in the third quarter. in the euro area and japan, by contrast, it was weaker than expected. in addition, inflation in the advanced economies was below central bank targets – in some cases by a considerable margin. in the euro area, it is only just in positive territory. the decline in commodity prices, above all crude oil, will curb inflation further over the short term. we continue to assume that global economic growth will gradually firm over the course of next year. the considerable fall in oil prices should be a contributory factor. however, the bis central bankers ’ speeches prospects for individual countries vary widely. for the us, we are expecting that growth will remain robust over the next few quarters, leading to better utilisation of economic capacity. for the euro area, by contrast, we have revised the growth forecast downwards once more, and the outlook for this region remains very subdued. the picture for the emerging economies is mixed. china will continue to be a driver of the global economy, although it is likely to see a gradual weakening of growth. for india, growth prospects are picking up again. the outlook for brazil and russia, by contrast, remains muted. overall, the global economic outlook is still very uncertain and dominated by downside risks – the most important of which are the continuing difficult conditions in the euro area and a possible escalation in geopolitical tensions. swiss economic outlook i will now look at economic developments in switzerland. following a weak second quarter, real gdp growth was unexpectedly favourable in the third. on the demand side, the increase was supported predominantly by goods exports, with manufacturing the main beneficiary of the strong export demand. however, private and public consumption also picked up, after having registered only lacklustre growth in the first half of the year. momentum in equipment investment, by contrast, remained weak. in part, growth was also boosted by special factors, including an unusually large increase in value added in the healthcare industry. despite the positive developments of the third quarter, utilisation of economic capacity remains unsatisfactory. we are assuming that growth will be markedly lower in the fourth quarter. in particular, export

new ideas and identify opportunities to deepen collaboration at the regional level. these are important matters as it enables policy makers to formulate new development policies and better strategies. it has been a very productive symposium. the dedication and commitment expressed by those who have participated so actively in the various sessions should energise and inspire us all to strive even harder and achieve more to improve the well - being of our communities. on behalf of bank negara malaysia, let me take this opportunity to express our thanks to the oecd and infe, and the moderators, speakers and discussants in making this event a success. i would also like to thank all delegates for your active participation throughout this symposium. i hope you have gained valuable insights for charting your own national strategies for financial education. enjoy the rest of your stay in malaysia, and we look to the opportunity to welcome you back in the future. bis central bankers ’ speeches