, melbourne, 19 august. bis central bankers ’ speeches doubt that will not discourage some readers from using their rulers to measure the graphs and focus on revisions down to the nearest 0. 1 percentage point! also, some commentators will be tempted to draw attention to what they might describe as “ large ½ percentage point changes ” when the forecasts are revised, even though any such revisions may reflect much smaller adjustments if it is the case that the forecasts have merely crossed rounding barriers. 6 the key point i ’ d like to make here is that if we judge any forecast revision to be of substance worth noting, we ’ ll note it! to emphasise this point further, it is worth remembering that the available data are subject to a degree of measurement error. in the case of real gdp, for example, quarterly growth rates can easily be revised up or down by ½ percentage point or more in the first four years after the initial estimate ( graph 1 ). 7 the recent revision to gdp growth – of 0. 2 percentage points in the september quarter of 2015 – was relatively minor, though the data now suggest that gdp growth picked up in the second half of 2015 to be more in line with the strength that was apparent in a range of indicators of the labour market and business conditions at that time. starting points a critical element of forecasting is to have a sense of where the economy is now and in which direction it ’ s currently heading. this comes from carefully dissecting the incoming economic data in an attempt to disentangle signals from noise and determine the extent to which shocks will be long - lived or transitory. 8 in addition to publicly available data, we make use of information obtained from our business liaison program. we also use information gleaned from econometric models, which include both single - equation models of individual variables as well as larger models that attempt to capture the behaviour of multiple variables simultaneously. the various information sources that we use don ’ t always provide a clear message about where we are and where we are heading. indeed, it is naive to think that the truth can reside in a single source of data or a particular model. to an extent, this reflects the usual noise in the various types of information, as well as uncertainty about the strength of different economic relationships. combining information from a variety of sources, and models, typically results in more robust conclusions than relying exclusively on a single source. the behaviour of inflation provides a timely example. a wide range of information suggests

media - centre / speeches / australias - new - horizon - climate - change - challenges - andprudential - risk >. < https : / / www. fsb - tcfd. org / > summerhayes g ( 2019 ), ‘ financial exposure : the role of disclosure in addressing the climate data deficit ’, climatewise and university of cambridge institute for sustainable leadership, london ( february ). available at < https : / / www. cisl. cam. ac. uk / news / news - pdfs - or - prs / financial - exposure - geoff - summerhayes. pdf > see ngfs < https : / / www. banque - france. fr / en / financial - stability / international - role / network - greening - financialsystem > gencost 2018 © reserve bank of australia, 2001 – 2019. all rights reserved. https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2019 / sp - dg - 2019 - 03 - 12. html subscribe : 10 / 10