##2 = 100 ) usa eurozone japan england source : consensus forecasts, september. in the june - august period, non - farm employment increased for the first time since the second quarter of 2008, in seasonally adjusted terms. parallel to this development, the upward trend in unemployment rates reversed. in the mentioned period, unemployment rates increased in annual terms while they decreased compared to the second quarter in seasonally adjusted terms ( figure 30 ). indicators such as capacity utilization rates and per capita hours worked suggest that resource utilization remains low throughout the economy. given that ample slack would continue to be an obstacle to investment and employment, recent signs of improvement in employment data is not expected to turn into a significant recovery, suggesting that unemployment is likely to remain elevated for an extended period of time. therefore, unit labor costs and domestic demand would continue to support disinflation. figure 30 : unemployment rates ( seasonally adjusted, percent ) nonfarm unemployment rate unemployment rate source : turkstat, cbrt. as i have mentioned before, the tightness in credit conditions has been on an easing trend. accordingly, developments in the credit market would begin to support domestic economic activity as of the fourth quarter of the year and the impact of monetary policy is expected to be more visible in the medium term. however, the rising domestic borrowing requirement of the government, ongoing problems in the global economy, and elevated levels of unemployment would continue restraining credit expansion. overall, economic activity is expected to recover gradually, with annual growth rates posting positive figures starting in the last quarter. however, resource utilization is anticipated to remain below the long - term average for some time. in this context, our medium - term forecasts envisage that the output gap – albeit closing faster than envisaged in the july report – will remain disinflationary until mid - 2012. although global economic growth is expected to follow a gradual path, commodity prices continued to follow a rising trend in the third quarter, with the growing perception that recovery is on the way ( figure 31 ). accordingly, oil prices were above our assumption of usd 60 per barrel in the third quarter ( figure 32 ). therefore, the previous assumption of end - year oil price levels are revised up from usd 60 per barrel to usd 70 for 2009, from usd 70 to usd 75 for 2010, and from usd 70 to usd 80 for 2011 and thereafter. moreover, in line with oil prices, imported input prices are also assumed to increase gradually throughout the forecast horizon

the terms of trade, which have continued to surprise on the upside, boosting our national income. the outlook for investment in the resources sector has also improved, due to both higher levels of sustaining capital investment and the commencement of some new projects. after five years of declining mining investment as lng projects were completed, we are expecting an increase over the coming year ( graph 6 ). non - mining business investment is also on an upward trend as firms invest in additional capacity. by contrast, investment in residential construction is likely to be a drag on the economy for the next few years. after six years of strong growth, residential construction is now declining and this is likely to continue for a while yet. https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2019 / sp - gov - 2019 - 05 - 21. html 7 / 16 5 / 21 / 2019 the economic outlook and monetary policy | speeches | rba graph 6 in comparison with the gdp data, the labour market data over the past year have painted a stronger picture of the economy and have mostly surprised on the upside. more people have joined the labour market and job creation has been strong, with employment increasing by 2½ per cent over the year, compared with growth in the working - age population of 1¾ per cent. the unemployment rate has also declined over the past year ( graph 7 ). https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2019 / sp - gov - 2019 - 05 - 21. html 8 / 16 5 / 21 / 2019 the economic outlook and monetary policy | speeches | rba graph 7 recently, though, some labour market indicators have softened a little : the unemployment rate ticked up to 5. 2 per cent in april ; the underemployment rate has also moved a little higher as there are more part - time workers who are seeking additional hours ; job advertisements have declined ; and hiring intentions have come off their earlier highs. at the same time, the vacancy rate remains high, monthly employment growth remains firm and hiring intentions remain above average. taking these various indicators together, the labour market continues to be resilient, although our expectation is that employment growth will slow to be broadly in line with growth in the working - age population. the other element of the labour market that i would like to comment on is wages. as the labour market has strengthened over the past year, wages growth in the private sector has picked up. by contrast, wages growth in