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economy. according to our estimates, a 4 % - points drop in growth in china would lower german gross domestic product by roughly a quarter percentage. such a slump is not be expected at present, however. all things considered, the neighbouring asian countries – owing to their geographical proximity and strong economic links – are likely to feel the negative effects more severely than the western industrial nations. we are seeing a clear correction in the industrial sector, in which excess capacity is being reduced. this is also confirmed by german exporters and producers on site. growth in trade and services still seems to be good, however. retail sales are clearly increasing and many “ new economy ” firms are rushing towards ever new records in sales and profits. consumer demand still appears to be intact. risks exist on account of high levels of debt in local government and state - owned enterprises. many observers still rate the data quality of cyclical indicators as a challenge. for example, there are numerous monthly indicators for the industrial sector, but reliable data on the services sector are often available only on a quarterly basis. china is now tackling this problem. at the beginning of september, the national bureau of statistics announced that it would calculate gross domestic product in future in accordance with international standards. the chinese currency, the renminbi, is playing a key role in the economic and political transformation. in the export - oriented growth model it was an important management tool, but its significance as an actively used instrument is waning given advancing transformation and stronger orientation to services. the internationalisation of the renminbi has come a long way over the past few years. the renminbi has now becomes established as a trading currency. according to data supplied by the international payment service provider swift, in august the renminbi overtook the japanese yen among the most traded currencies. although cross - border payments are currently well below the use of the us dollar or the euro, its share of now 2. 8 % is remarkable. as recently as 2012, it ranked in twelfth place with a share of merely 0. 8 %. this constantly increasing use of the renminbi as a transaction currency is also the outcome of the worldwide expansion in clearing houses. one example of this is the launch of the clearing bank in frankfurt am main last year. the renminbi has thus already taken its first step to being a trading currency. the next step to becoming an investment currency is still being hampered by a number of capital controls. but the barriers are constantly being