fomc meeting, if the economic data over the next year turn out to be broadly consistent with the outlooks that the fomc sees as most likely, which are roughly similar to the outlook i have already laid out, the fomc anticipates that it would be appropriate to begin to moderate the pace of purchases later this year. under such a scenario, subsequent reductions might occur in measured steps through the first half of next year, and an end to purchases around mid - 2014. under this scenario, at the time that asset purchases came to an end, the unemployment rate likely would be near 7 percent and the economy ’ s momentum strengthening, supporting further robust job gains in the future. as i noted last week in our regional press briefing, a few points deserve emphasis. first, the fomc ’ s policy depends on the progress we make towards our objectives. this means that the policy – including the pace of asset purchases – depends on the outlook rather than the calendar. the scenario i outlined above is only that – one possible outcome. economic circumstances could diverge significantly from the fomc ’ s expectations. if labor market conditions and the economy ’ s growth momentum were to be less favorable than in the fomc ’ s outlook – and this is what has happened in recent years – i would expect that the asset purchases would continue at a higher pace for longer. second, even if this scenario were to occur and the pace of purchases were reduced, it would still be the case that as long as the fomc continues its asset purchases it is adding monetary policy accommodation, not tightening monetary policy. as the fomc adds to its stock of securities, this should continue to put downward pressure on longer - term interest rates, making monetary policy more accommodative. third, the federal reserve is likely to keep most of these assets on its balance sheet for a long time. as chairman bernanke noted in his most recent press conference, a strong majority of fomc participants no longer favor selling agency mbs securities during the monetary policy normalization process. this implies a bigger balance sheet for longer, which provides additional accommodation today and continuing support for mortgage markets going forward. fourth, even under this scenario, a rise in short - term rates is very likely to be a long way off. not only will it likely take considerable time to reach the fomc ’ s 6. 5 percent unemployment rate threshold, but also the fomc could

i met with mayor finch and key economic development staff to discuss bridgeport ’ s redevelopment initiatives. local efforts such as these and your business council are essential complements to the fed ’ s support for economic recovery. i applaud the efforts of state and local governments and community leaders to bolster the recovery in bridgeport, stamford and elsewhere in the district. i also met with joan carty from the connecticut housing development fund. we discussed innovative approaches for addressing the foreclosure crisis here and across the state. housing has been a major impediment to a more rapid economic recovery and we at the fed have been working hard to help homeowners and the overall housing market recover. afterwards, i spoke with small business leaders about the opportunities and challenges they are facing today. i traveled to sikorsky aircraft corporation with several goals in mind. i wanted to learn how sequestration was affecting ground - level operations, to understand the local and regional economic impact of sikorsky, and to view state - of - the - art manufacturing at work. after this program, i will be meeting with joseph carbone of the workplace to discuss best practices and emerging approaches to workforce development, particularly his innovative program for the long - term unemployed which i understand he is piloting in five different cities bis central bankers ’ speeches across the nation. at the end of the day i will be meeting with university of connecticut ( uconn ) stamford campus staff, your own executive director chris bruhl and other officials to learn about the ecosystem that is being created to spur further economic development locally. i ’ ll end the day with a meeting with governor malloy to better understand the complex issues and opportunities facing the state. the agenda for these visits is always packed, but that ’ s part of the point – to meet with a diverse array of representatives in order to get a comprehensive picture of what ’ s happening on main street and its interaction with state and national developments. at the end of my talk i will be happy to answer any questions you have about the economic outlook from my perspective. as always, what i have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the federal reserve system or the federal open market committee, also known as the fomc. national economic conditions i would like to begin by taking stock of where we are at the moment. then i will address my expectations for the performance of the economy over the remainder of 2013 and into 2014. since the end of the great recession