” the metrics for achieving these outcomes also varied across participants. a few months later, in march 2021, i made my first submission for the summary of economic projections as an fomc member. my projection had inflation above 2 percent for 2021 and 2022, with unemployment close to my long - run estimate by the second half of 2022. given this projection, which i believed was consistent with the guidance from december, i penciled in lifting off the zero lower bound in 2022, with the second half of the year in mind. to lift off from the zlb in the second half of 2022, i believed tapering of asset purchases would have to start in the second half of 2021 and conclude by the third quarter of 2022. this projection was based on my judgment that the economy would heal much faster than many expected. this was not 2009, and expectations of a slow, grinding recovery were inaccurate, in my view. in april 2021, i said the economy was “ ready to rip, ” and it did. 1 i chose to look at the unemployment rate and job creation as the labor market indicators i would use to assess whether we had made “ substantial further progress. ” my projection was also based on the belief that the jump in inflation that occurred in march 2021 would be more persistent than many expected. see jeff cox ( 2021 ), “ fed ’ s waller says the economy is ‘ ready to rip ’ but policy should stay put, ” cnbc, april 16. - 3there was a range of views on the committee. eleven of my colleagues did not have a rate hike penciled in until after 2023. with regard to future inflation, 13 participants projected inflation in 2022 would be at or below our 2 percent target. in the march 2021 sep, no committee member expected inflation to be over 3 percent for 2021. as i argued in a speech last december, this view was consistent with privatesector economic forecasts. 2 when inflation broke loose in march 2021, even though i had expected it to run above 2 percent in 2021 and 2022, i never thought it would reach the very high levels we have seen in recent months. indeed, i expected it would eventually fade, due to the nature of these shocks. all the suspected drivers of this surge in inflation appeared to be temporary : the one - time stimulus from fiscal policy, supply chain shocks that previous experience indicated would ease soon, and a surge in demand for goods. in addition, we

swedish property market more liquid. at the same time, it is also conceivable that potentially negative developments in the international market could more easily spread to the swedish market. if, for instance, an investor were to make losses on another country ’ s market, it is conceivable that the investor would sell swedish property to cover the loss. prices could thus change quickly even without any change in the underlying factors. that was the commercial property market. what about the housing market? why have house prices risen so much? as you know, house prices have also risen substantially since the mid - 1990s. a person who bought a house ten years ago would be able to sell it now for a price more than double what he paid for it then. prices of tenant - owned apartments have probably risen even more 1. it is more difficult to analyse prices of tenant - owned apartments. the statistics are more uncertain. but in principle, the reasoning with regard to the market for single - family dwellings also applies to the market for collectively owned according to estate agents statistics ( maklarstatistik. se ) the price per square metre for a tenant - owned apartment has risen by 300 per cent in ten years. dwellings. the substantial increase in house prices has gone hand in hand with the increase in household indebtedness. of all the loans granted to households, 85 per cent have property as collateral. a sharp fall in property prices combined with households experiencing difficulty in paying their loans could therefore cause problems for the banks. a central issue here is whether house prices have been pushed up by exaggerated optimism or by speculation. despite the rapid upturn in prices, i do not believe that we are currently seeing any general overvaluation of the property market. this is because there are a number of factors that can largely justify the rise in prices 2. firstly, interest rates have been historically low in recent years. since the riksbank introduced its inflation target, in the mid - 1990s, the inflation rate has become lower and has stabilised. a more stable development in inflation also means that the real interest rates – interest rates excluding inflation – have fallen. at the end of 1996, after the crisis years, the real variable mortgage rate was around 7 per cent. today it is around 2 per cent. lower real interest rates mean that it becomes cheaper for households to take out loans when buying housing. the low interest rates are therefore an important driving force behind the price increases. secondly, developments in