is that ukraine will receive a total of usd 45 billion in financial aid loans and grants this year. these disbursements remain the main source of covering the high budget deficit, which stands to widen to almost 29 % of gdp this year. through aid, ukraine has also been able to finance its considerable current account deficit, and the nbu has maintained a high level of international reserves and balanced the fx market. ukraine's needs for external financing in the years ahead will remain significant despite the gradual mobilization of domestic financial resources and fiscal consolidation. 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches an important assumption underlying the forecast remains the sufficiency and regularity of such aid, which requires that ukraine meet its commitments to international partners. this will make it possible to finance the budget's critical expenditures and avoid having to rely on monetary financing, going forward. for its part, the nbu will be able to maintain international reserves at above usd 40 billion despite making significant interventions to preserve the sustainability of the fx market amid further currency liberalization measures, among other things. the key risk to the forecast is the longer duration and the unpredictable nature and intensity of the war the war continues. the nbu has revised its main assumption regarding the longevity of high risks to security. the updated forecast envisages that they will persist until at least the end of 2024. uncertainty over the length of the war remains high. an expedited end to the war would promote faster economic growth and eliminate a large part of the inflationary risks. by contrast, if security risks were to persist for longer than currently expected, they could lead to additional losses of ukraine's economic potential and heavier inflationary pressures throughout the forecast horizon. the following risks also remain relevant : decreased or less regular disbursements of international aid emergence of additional budget needs to maintain defense capabilities and substantial quasi - fiscal deficits, in the energy sector in particular significant damage to port and energy infrastructure that will restrain exports adverse trends in migration. in contrast, the implementation of large - scale reconstruction projects in ukraine could help accelerate the economic recovery significantly. what is more, economic growth in the short run may be quicker than expected, if the capacity of sea export routes increases more significantly. taking into account the balance of risks and the need to continue to ensure that hryvnia - denominated assets are highly attractive, especially as fx market participants adjust to the managed flexibility of the exchange rate, the nbu board has decided not to

##bank and most other central banks becoming more open and clear. another important reason is that we have quite simply regarded it as a means of more easily achieving our objective and of making monetary policy more efficient. there are three main aspects i would like to emphasise in this context : • firstly, it will be easier to communicate that the interest rate decisions made are really aimed at achieving low and stable inflation. this provides greater credibility and helps to anchor expectations around the target. it was an important reason why the riksbank began to publish its inflation forecasts and other material on which decisions are based early on in the new inflation - targeting system. i do not believe that it would have been possible to build up confidence in the price stability target as quickly as we did if we had not been as open as we were regarding our work and our decisions. • secondly, openness and clarity are currently an important part of monetary policy in itself. you could say they are one of the tools in our toolbox. so what do i mean by this? there is a relationship between interest rates with different durations. and expectations of short - term interest rates, which the central bank governs, are important to the long - term interest rates. a central bank can therefore ” indirectly ” influence interest rates with longer durations by influencing expectations of shortterm interest rates. greater influence over interest - setting throughout the economy – the yield curve – makes the impact of monetary policy more effective. this is often called conducting monetary policy with the aid of “ management of expectations ”. and the best way to do this is to provide good information. • the third and final aspect is that increased openness and clarity “ outwards ” can contribute to our working more efficiently within the riksbank. this is a quite important argument. the more open we are, the easier it is for others to evaluate how well our monetary policy functions. this gives us an extra incentive to do a good job. what has the process towards openness and clarity resulted in? the path towards becoming more open and clear has not always been easy, it has at times caused some debate. two issues in particular have been the subject of lively discussion over the past year. the first is that we now publish our own forecasts for the interest rate path. the second concerns how representatives of the riksbank send signals regarding the interest rate in speeches and press releases. interest rate path a natural step towards openness in february 2007 we presented for the