sides of the atlantic : look especially at the encouraging figures for services ( estimated at 4. 6 % in october in the euro area, down from a peak at 5. 6 % in july ). the latest developments in israel and the oil market shouldn ’ t significantly change this trend : each day we are moving further from a general commodity shock like in 2021 - 22. page 13 sur 14 • as we are confident on our target, we can be patient on our instrument. “ intelligent patience ”, so to speak, which is quite different from stubborn obstinacy : we ’ ll adapt to data, including on economic activity – and i still think we should and can avoid recession, preferring a soft landing path. but the question too quickly shifted from “ when will you stop hiking? ” to “ when will you start cutting? ”. well, in a mountainous environment, there aren't just peaks and descents : there are also plateaus, where you can experience the effects of altitude and appreciate the view. that's what we'll probably be doing for at least the next several meetings and the next few quarters. i said as early as last january that we would probably finish raising rates " by summer 2023 " - and we have done so ; today i won't give a date for the first rate cut. rather than a calendar, i do believe that there is one key criterion for getting through this future " navigation lock " : x a return to an inflation outlook that is compatible with our 2 % target, firmly and durably. firmly in the sense of being supported by actual data on headline inflation, as well as on underlying inflation and wages. durably in the sense of forecasting 2 % sufficiently ahead of the end of our projection horizon, and including a decline towards 2 % of households ’ and businesses ’ inflation expectations. * * * let me wrap up with the famous words of winston churchill, who declared in the house of common in 1940 : “ we shall not flag or fail ( … ). we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength ”. xi in a world subject to increasing conflictuality, you can be sure that we, as central bankers, shall never surrender against inflation and thus do our part to reduce what i called “ domestic conflicts ”. we should do it with humility, focusing on our primary mandate and on actual data, rather than claiming to forge the whole economic future ; and with pragmatism, facing

among others more volatile long term interest rates. but we shall deliver by 2025 with increased confidence : expect our next meetings, as said, to be a bit more boring. but if this is synonym for somewhat reduced page 14 sur 14 uncertainty and intelligent patience before future rate cuts, nobody should regret it. thank you for your attention. f. fukuyama, the end of history and the last man, 1992. g. gopinath, the temptation to finance all spending through debt must be resisted, financial times, 27 october 2023. iii f. villeroy de galhau, the future of multilateralism : three hard facts, three needs and one belief, speech at emerging markets forum, 11 october 2023. iv p. - o. gourinchas, resilient global economy still limping along, with growing divergences, imf blog, 10 october 2023. v g. lorenzoni, and i. werning, " inflation is conflict ", working paper 31099, national bureau of economic research, april 2023. vi o. blanchard, " the wage price spiral ", the quarterly journal of economics, august 1986, 101 ( 3 ), 543 - 565. vii c. lagarde, policymaking in an age of shifts and break, speech, jackson hole, 25 august 2023. viii f. villeroy de galhau, monetary policy in uncertain times, speech at london school of economics, 15 february 2022 ix below 2. 5 %, attention is low and insensitive to the actual level of inflation, but when inflation is above this threshold, inflation attention rises strongly with inflation. korenok et al. ( 2022 ) find similar results for a large sample of countries using google searches for inflation. o. de bandt et al., ( 2023 ) also show the good forecasting properties on future inflation developments from data on inflation perception derived from newspapers. this warrants monitoring such data from newspapers and social media. x f. villeroy de galhau, how monetary policy will defeat inflation : channels and locks, speech at centre des professions financieres, 17 february 2023. xi w. churchill, house of commons, 4 june 1940. i ii