second criterion on which our assessment is based is confidence, since meeting the first criterion – convergence – is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a sustained adjustment. the governing council wants to be sure that the expectation of an upward adjustment in inflation has a sufficiently high probability of being realised and is being met on a sustainable basis, i. e. not as the result of a transitory shock or measurement error. in other words, we need to build strong confidence in the accuracy of our baseline outlook for inflation : the range of possible outcomes around that baseline path should be reasonably contained. this is our second criterion for a sustained adjustment. at our last governing council meeting, we have communicated our increasing confidence that inflation will converge towards our inflation aim of below, but close, to 2 %. how can we substantiate today that inflation convergence has sufficiently strong legs to support its upward trajectory towards our aim? by looking at a broad range of indicators of price pressures, for example measures of inflation trends, notably including core inflation indices. as these underlying inflation statistics – available today – contain information that is valuable for predicting the level of headline inflation in the future, when short - term shocks that may influence its level today have faded away, we want to cross - check our medium - term projections for headline inflation with these measures. in parallel, an eye on capacity utilisation and the extent of unutilised resources can help reinforce our confidence in inflation convergence as a more robust real economy is likely to support a build - up of broad - based price pressures looking forward. our third criterion, resilience, measures the robustness of inflation convergence to a partial withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. if the inflation outlook is overly dependent on monetary support, the upward adjustment cannot be considered sustained. so, we want to verify that the path would be maintained even in less supportive monetary policy conditions. today, we are still some distance away from meeting all three criteria at the same time. so, we still need patience and persistence in steering our policy conduct. patience is necessary because it takes time for price pressures to build up, and to be reflected in the information that forms the basis for our assessment of progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. persistence is necessary because the recovery in inflation is, in itself, a consequence of the prevailing accommodative monetary policy stance. even if incoming data were to validate the expectation of a gradual build - up of inflationary pressures, this would not be

the banking crises of 2023 : some initial reflections paolo angelini deputy governor of banca d ’ italia remarks at the event “ promoting accountability in times of crisis ”, tenth annual meeting of the working group on financial and economic stability of the the international organization of supreme audit institutions ( intosai ), hosted by the corte dei conti rome, 8 november 2023 i am happy to be here at such distinguished event to share some thoughts about the banking crises of last spring. such events triggered reflections in the international fora about possible improvements of the current supervisory and regulatory framework on banks and of the existing resolution tools. this is the topic of my remarks today. 1. the recent banking crises in less than two months – from 8 march to 1 may 2023 – four mid - sized us banks ( silicon valley bank, silvergate bank, signature bank, first republic bank ) and a globally significant swiss one ( credit suisse ) were shut down, put into receivership, rescued or closed. the event, involving banks with overall total asset exceeding $ 1, 100 billion, was the most significant system - wide banking stress in terms of scale and scope since the great financial crisis. it sent shockwaves throughout the global financial system. in the two weeks following 8 march asset prices worldwide fell, quite sharply for banks ’ equities, and the cost of insuring against bank default surged. wide - scale public support measures were deployed by the us and swiss authorities to manage the crises and mitigate the impact of the stress, including significant central bank liquidity provision to banks, the activation of fx swap lines, government backstops and guarantees, an extension of deposit guarantee schemes ; in the case of credit swiss a complete write - off of additional tier 1 ( at1 ) instruments was also effected, a decision which has sparked a lively debate about the legitimacy of the decision as well as on the loss absorption capacity of this class of instruments. thanks to the effective management by the us and swiss authorities, the crisis was brought under control. the us s & p 500 and the eurostoxx 500 indexes in europe recovered their pre - crisis levels in a few weeks ( fig. 1 ). the impact on the bank component of the indexes has been more intense : in europe the latter has gradually caught up with the market index, in the us it is still well below. a strong and long - lasting effect was recorded by figure 1 us and eu stock market indexes ( indexes