and slightly positive in 2022 ( 0. 2 % ). the conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the snb policy rate remains at −0. 75 % over the entire forecast horizon. the long - term inflation expectations are well anchored and stand at around 1 %. global economic outlook the coronavirus pandemic and the measures implemented to contain it led to a historic downturn in the global economy in the first half of 2020. with the decline in new infections and the easing of the containment measures in the summer months, economic activity increasingly resumed. this resulted in the global economy posting a strong recovery in the third quarter. nevertheless, gdp remained significantly below pre - crisis levels in most countries. infection numbers have unfortunately risen again rapidly in europe and the us since october. in response to this, numerous containment measures have once more been adopted, and the population has become more cautious again when it comes to activities with a higher risk of infection. recent indicators show that this is once more having a detrimental impact on economic activity. in various countries, this could even result in gdp shrinking in the fourth quarter. however, the effects can be expected to be smaller than in spring given that many countries have opted for less severe containment measures. in our baseline scenario for the global economy, we anticipate that the pandemic will be brought back under control in the foreseeable future, and that appropriate measures will prevent further waves of infection. the economic recovery should therefore regain momentum in the course of next year. the monetary and fiscal policy measures adopted worldwide are providing important support in this regard. however, it is likely that global production capacity will be underutilised for some time to come and inflation will remain modest in most countries. this scenario is subject to a high level of uncertainty, and there are risks on the upside and downside alike. on the one hand, the pandemic or trade tensions could additionally hamper economic activity. on the other, the fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented could support the recovery more strongly than anticipated. swiss economic outlook through to late summer, the swiss economy also recovered markedly and more strongly than originally expected from the first wave of the pandemic. following a record increase, gdp page 2 / 4 zurich, 17 december 2020 thomas jordan news conference was still 2 % below the pre - crisis level in the third quarter, having been more than 8 % below in the second quarter. however, in october coronavirus also spread rapidly again in switzerland.

the medium term despite the raising of the snb policy rate is attributable to stronger inflationary pressure from abroad and the fact that price increases are spreading across the various categories of goods and services in the consumer price index. the new forecast puts average annual inflation at 2. 9 % for 2022, 2. 4 % for 2023 and 1. 8 % for 2024 ( cf. table 1 ). without today ’ s snb policy rate increase, the inflation forecast would be even higher over the medium term. global economic outlook i will now move on to the economic outlook. global growth momentum has continued to slow down. at the same time, inflation in many countries is markedly above central banks ’ targets. accordingly, numerous central banks have further tightened their monetary policy. in our baseline scenario for the global economy, we expect this challenging situation to persist for now. global economic growth is likely to be weak in the coming quarters, and inflation will remain elevated for the time being. over the medium term, however, inflation abroad should return to more moderate levels, not least due to the increasingly tighter monetary policy in many countries. our scenario for the global economy is subject to significant risks. the energy situation in europe could worsen again. at the same time, high inflation could become embedded and require renewed stronger monetary policy responses abroad. finally, the coronavirus pandemic remains an important source of risk for the global economy. swiss economic outlook what is the economic outlook for switzerland? gdp grew at an annualised rate of 1. 0 % in the third quarter. economic momentum thus remained similarly modest as in the preceding quarters. while many service industries fared well, there was a renewed slight decline in value added in manufacturing. the situation on the labour market remained positive. employment continued to rise, and unemployment decreased again slightly. overall production capacity has been well utilised. switzerland ’ s gdp is likely to grow by around 2. 0 % this year. however, weaker demand from abroad and the high energy prices are likely to curb economic activity markedly in the coming year. against this backdrop, we expect gdp growth of around 0. 5 % for 2023. page 2 / 4 berne, 15 december 2022 thomas jordan news conference our forecast for switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to high uncertainty. a stronger economic downturn abroad or a pronounced energy shortage in switzerland would, in particular, have a negative effect. monetary policy outlook ladies and gentlemen, allow me to