the continued weakness in the international economy. however, the consensus forecast is that the prospects for global growth for 2010 have not changed for the worse. growth in this year is largely expected to come from the emerging market economies, such as china and india, as the advanced economies are projected to experience low to moderate growth. in light of the outlook for the global economy and recent adverse weather conditions, the bank has revised its projection of the performance of the domestic economy for this fiscal year. the domestic economy is currently being forecasted to contract marginally in the range of 0. 0 per cent to 1. 0 per cent for fiscal year 2010 / 11. this is in contrast to our earlier forecast of marginal growth for the fiscal year. the change in projection is largely due to the extent of the fall - out in the june quarter and the impact of tropical storm nicole in the december quarter. the forecast for a marginal decline in the fiscal year as a whole therefore depends on there being growth in the march 2011 quarter. domestic inflation for fy2010 / 11 is expected to be at the upper end of the revised forecast range of 6. 0 per cent to 8. 0 per cent and within the original target range of 7. 5 per cent to 9. 5 per cent. this projection is underpinned by continued low consumer demand, a stable exchange rate and continued moderation in inflation expectations. the risks to the inflation projection are balanced. the downside risks continue to be a greater than anticipated contraction in demand due to sharper than expected reductions in real incomes. the upside risks include adverse weather conditions and higher than anticipated increases in international commodity prices. given the above factors, the central bank will remain vigilant in monitoring developments in the international and domestic economy. in addition, despite the projected uptick for inflation in the december quarter, the medium - term outlook indicates a resumption of the downward path. against this background, the bank will continue to be cautious in easing its monetary policy stance. conclusion ladies and gentlemen, the successes we have had to date in the macroeconomic indicators have been assisted by the on - going consolidation of the fiscal accounts. the fiscal authorities have been meeting their targets under the imf stand - by arrangement and from all indications the quantitative targets under the september review have also been met. both local and foreign investors continue to monitor the country ’ s progress carefully. they have so far indicated their approval by the preference shown for jamaican financial assets. this must not be taken

the impact of the lower energy prices, however, were increases in the prices of some agricultural products, particularly in july. this mainly reflected the lagged impact on food prices of drought conditions from late - 2009 to mid - 2010. we are projecting that there will be an up - tick in inflation in the december quarter with headline inflation expected to be within the range of 2. 0 per cent to 3. 0 per cent. the projected acceleration in inflation in the december quarter is largely influenced by the above average rainfall experienced by the island at the end of september caused by the passage of tropical storm nicole, which led to severe damage to local crops and the road network. in this context, there is expected to be some increase in the prices of select agricultural commodities, particularly in november and december. however, the government has announced plans to import certain food items, which could partly mitigate some of these increases. in addition, the recent increases in the prices of oil, corn and wheat on the international market are expected to continue in this quarter. real sector economic activity is estimated to have remained weak during the september quarter, with real gdp contracting in the range of 0. 0 per cent to 1. 0 per cent relative to the sharp decline in the june 2010 quarter. in fact, real gdp contracted by 2. 0 per cent in the june quarter relative to the bank ’ s estimate of a decline in the range 0. 0 per cent to 1. 0 per cent. the decline in the june quarter followed three consecutive quarters of deceleration in the pace of decline. the areas in which the declines were sharper than we had estimated were agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacture, transport storage & communication and financing & insurance services. the estimated out - turn in the review quarter reflected continued contraction in the nontradable industries as the tradable industries are estimated to have recorded marginal growth. in particular, construction, manufacture, finance & insurance and electricity & water supplies are estimated to have been the major industries to decline in the quarter. mining & quarrying was the major influence on growth in some tradable industries. in the context of the excessive rainfall at the end of september, the bank ’ s projections indicate that real gdp will marginally contract or expand in the december quarter in the range – 0. 5 per cent to 0. 5 per cent. most industries are projected to contract, with the exceptions being mining & quarrying and hotels & restaurant. outlook looking ahead, there are concerns about