still reflected significant uncertainty, with no primary dealer placing more than 50 percent probability on any particular target range. like the dealers, the market participants also report wide individual distributions of beliefs. likewise, when primary dealers were asked about the timing of the announced change in reinvestment policy, the average of their responses was a relatively flat distribution of possible dates, with almost equal probability on the announcement occurring in the fourth quarter of 2017, the first two quarters of 2018, or the second half of 2018 ( figure 5 ). again, the individual distributions were narrower but still showed a significant amount of uncertainty. highlighting the usefulness of also surveying market participants, expectations in the market survey are distinctly shifted toward an early announcement date relative to the expectations of the primary dealers. - 9the surveys reveal that while beliefs are dispersed across participants, importantly individual survey participants are also significantly uncertain - - in other words, any given participant does not appear to have firmly decided on the likely path of policy. the general point is that while we often measure and report differences in views across individuals, the uncertainty that individuals feel internally is also relevant. recent survey results that show that market participants assign a positive probability to a wide range of outcomes also suggest that the factors that exacerbated the taper tantrum - dispersed but firmly held beliefs - - may be less pronounced in current circumstances than they were at the time of the taper tantrum. the market reaction to the release of the minutes of the march 2017 fomc meeting supports this interpretation of the interaction of uncertainty and fed policy communications. the minutes reported that, “ provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the committee ’ s reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year. ” 14 as was shown in figure 5, in the march 2017 surveys, respondents placed the most weight, 71 percent for the primary dealers and 57 percent for the market participants, on an announced change in reinvestment policy not occurring until 2018 at the earliest. presumably, the april survey will reveal a shift in these distributions. it is noteworthy, however, that even though the statement in the minutes of the march fomc meeting regarding committee members ’ expectations for announcing changes in the reinvestment policy was not aligned with market expectations, there was see board of governors ( 2017 ), p. 3. - 10 only a muted market reaction. 15 perhaps in part, that

a memo to governor sherman j. maisel concluding that the federal open market committee was required to consider the goals of the employment act. see howard hackley ( 1971 ), “ responsibilities of the board under the employment act of 1946, ” memorandum, board of governors of the federal reserve system, february 11. - 3 ( fomc ) decisions. 6 but the same annual report made no reference to the employment act. for some people, there wasn ’ t any question of whether the employment act of 1946 should be a top priority. from its earliest days, the civil rights movement included full employment on a list of economic objectives deemed necessary to achieve the goals of freedom and political equality. several leaders of that movement carried forward that goal into the 1960s, including the rev. martin luther king and my cousin floyd mckissick, sr., but i would like to focus on an individual who probably did as much as anyone to establish maximum employment in 1977 as a goal assigned specifically to monetary policy. that person was coretta scott king. she had been a civil rights activist since attending the 1948 progressive national convention, where economic rights were discussed alongside other issues. after her husband ’ s assassination, mrs. king carried on his work for nonviolence, civil rights, and peace, but she was particularly focused on his economic justice agenda. four days after mlk ’ s death, in a speech at memphis city hall, she said that the right to employment had been on his mind : “ every man deserves a right to a job or an income, ” she said. “ our great nation … has the resources, but his question, ” ( she means dr. king ’ s question ) “ was : do we have the will? ” 7 a month later, she led a long - planned march in washington known as the poor people ’ s campaign, to push for bringing troops home and creating jobs and economic see board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 1976 ) 62nd annual report 1975 ( washington : board of governors, june, p. 51, https : / / fraser. stlouisfed. org / files / docs / publications / arfr / 1970s / arfr _ 1975. pdf? utm _ source = direct _ download. see david p. stein ( 2016 ), “ ‘ this nation has never honestly dealt with the question of a peacetime economy ’ : coretta scott king and the struggle for a nonviolent economy in the 1970s, ”