growth among our trading partners is in prospect. as global capacity utilisation increases to a more normal level, demand for norwegian exports might remain buoyant. a growing number of export enterprises are facing capacity constraints, particularly in the production of metals and refined petroleum products. export growth in the years ahead will probably occur in industries such as the engineering and shipbuilding industries. production growth is now high in these sectors, and employment is rising after declining for several years. high growth in the global economy has also pushed up prices for non - oil commodities. rising commodity prices and buoyant activity in markets that are important for norway have generated growth impulses to the norwegian economy. since may this year, commodity prices have varied widely, but on the whole edged up since end - june. international equity markets have stabilised since the turbulence in may, and have edged up since the previous monetary policy meeting. the benchmark index on the oslo stock exchange is now about 15 per cent higher than at the beginning of the year. interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. in the us, there are now expectations that the rate tightening cycle is nearing an end, and that the policy rate will be lowered in the course of next summer. a rise in key rates is expected over the next year in the euro area, sweden, the uk, australia, japan and switzerland. in the june inflation report, norges bank assumes that money market rates among our trading partners will gradually increase over the next three years. the path for domestic and external interest rates does not imply considerable changes in the krone exchange rate. growth in disposable income has been high in recent years. lower interest expenses as a result of the decrease in interest rates and relatively high real wage growth have resulted in an increase in household purchasing power. the rise in house prices may also have fuelled growth in private consumption. with high growth in employment and falling unemployment, consumption growth is expected to be high again this year. since the publication of the june inflation report, electricity prices have increased to a further extent than expected. forward prices for next winter have also increased. higher electricity prices may in isolation reduce household purchasing power somewhat. on the other hand, growth in household income is high and there are market expectations of a fall in electricity prices later next year. a continued rise in house prices may contribute to holding up consumption growth

, with fairly wide variations around that level. variations in energy prices may also lead to wide monthly variations in consumer price inflation. high electricity prices may lead to a pick - up in cpi inflation through 2006. through next year, a more moderate rise in energy prices may lead to lower cpi inflation. the rise in prices for non - energy products has been moderate in recent years and has been marked by developments in import prices. in norway, price impulses from imported consumer goods have been negative virtually every year since the mid - 1990s. this is partly due to increased trade and a shift in imports towards low - cost countries. price impulses from imported consumer goods are expected to continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in the period ahead, but to a lesser extent than in previous years. the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services pushed up cpi inflation up to this year. from autumn 2004 to autumn 2005, the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services picked up. since the beginning of the year, domestic inflation has edged down, hovering around 1. 3 per cent. adjusted for the reduction in day - care rates in january this year, the year - on - year rise in domestic prices has been 1. 6 per cent. the rise in prices has been lower than expected for both goods and services. there may be several factors behind the low inflation rate. strong competition between various producers within the food industry and construction industry may have had a dampening impact on inflation. in addition, productivity growth in retail trade has been high in the past few years. intensified competition may also have contributed to curbing the rise in prices for banking and insurance services. several factors point to higher inflation in the period ahead. capacity utilisation in the norwegian economy is rising, which will push up the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services. a tighter labour market will probably lead to higher wage growth in the coming years. the rise in oil prices is pushing up producer input costs. increased electricity costs may also translate into higher prices for domestically produced goods and services. outlook for the years ahead monetary policy will increasingly have to reflect the constraints facing some norwegian industries. oil prices are of importance for the activity level in the norwegian economy and central government revenues. in recent years, oil prices have risen sharply. crude oil prices rose to about usd 75 per barrel over the summer, partly owing to the conflict in the middle east and reduced production in nigeria and the us. in recent weeks, oil prices have