factors and some upward pressure from a further tightening in u. s. labor and product markets, i expect inflation to move up to the fomc ’ s 2 percent objective over the next few years. of course, inflation expectations play an important role in the inflation process, and my forecast of a return to our 2 percent objective over the medium term relies on a judgment that longer - term inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored. in this regard, recent measures from the survey of professional forecasters, the blue chip economic indicators, and the survey of primary dealers have continued to be generally stable. the measure of longer - term inflation expectations from the university of michigan surveys of consumers, in contrast, has lately edged below its typical range in recent years. however, this measure often seems to respond modestly, though temporarily, to large changes in actual inflation, and the very low readings on headline inflation over the past year may help explain some of the recent decline in the michigan measure. 6 marketbased measures of inflation compensation have moved up some in recent weeks after declining to historically low levels earlier in the fall. while the low level of these measures appears to reflect, at least in part, changes in risk and liquidity premiums, we will continue to monitor this development closely. convincing evidence that longer - term inflation expectations have moved lower would be a concern because declines in consumer and business expectations about inflation could put downward pressure on actual inflation, making the attainment of our 2 percent inflation goal more difficult. monetary policy let me now turn to the implications of the economic outlook for monetary policy. reflecting progress toward the committee ’ s objectives, many fomc participants indicated in september that they anticipated, in light of their economic forecasts at the time, that it would be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by the end of this year. some participants projected that it would be appropriate to wait until later to raise the target funds rate range, but all agreed that the timing of a rate increase would depend on what the incoming data tell us about the economic outlook and the associated risks to that outlook. in the policy statement issued after its october meeting, the fomc reaffirmed its judgment that it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds rate when we had seen some further improvement in the labor market and were reasonably confident that inflation would move back to the committee ’ s 2 percent objective over the medium term. that initial rate increase would reflect the committee ’ s judgment

a data aggregator, or a cyber attack. for community banks with limited resources, the necessary investments in api technology and in negotiating and overseeing data - sharing agreements with data aggregators and third - party providers may be beyond their reach, especially as they usually rely on service providers for their core technology. some fintech firms argue that screen scraping - - which has drawn the most complaints about data security - - may be the most effective tool for the customers of small community banks to access the financial apps they prefer - - and thereby necessary to remain competitive until more effective broader industry solutions are developed. clearly, getting these connectivity questions right, including the need to manage the consumer protection risks, is critically important. it could make the difference between a world in which the fintech wave helps community banks become the platforms of the future, on the one hand, or, on the other hand, a world in which fintech instead further widens the gulf between community banks and the largest banks. tradeoffs the different approaches to integrating banks into the fintech stack represent different risks and tradeoffs. connectivity solutions that require intermediaries such as data aggregators and rely on screen scraping potentially create repositories of consumer credentials for hackers to target. banks argue that if such a repository is breached, thousands of banks could be - 11 - impacted. 22 further complicating things, because screen scrapers operate without contractual relationships with the banks from which they pull information, banks have little leverage or ability to vet the security of the screen scrapers ’ systems and methods or their overall risk. in these circumstances, some commentators have noted that if a data aggregator or third - party developer is breached, it may not be clear who would bear responsibility for any losses - - the bank, the data aggregator, the fintech developer, or the consumer. some third - party developers have included terms and conditions that specifically limit their liability to consumers. 23 it is not clear the extent to which many consumers understand the risks involved with sharing their banking credentials, the more limited liability accepted by many third - party developers relative to their bank or credit card issuer, and the fact that the third - party developers may in turn provide those credentials to others in some instances. on the other side of the debate, fintech companies are concerned that banks could use their control over consumer data access in the context of bilateral contracts with data aggregators to leverage their position in order to impede competition elsewhere in the stack. this argument about access