s analysis referred to earlier. projected to slow from an annual average pace of 3. 6 per cent per year over 2011 - 21 to 3 per cent per year over 2022 - 30. in west asia 5, gdp growth has been uneven over the past two decades, slowing in the 2010s under the effects of political turmoil and military conflict. the world bank estimates that potential growth halved between the 2000s and 2010s, with the slowdown driven by broad - based decelerations in capital stock, in total factor productivity and in workingage populations. the pandemic has further damaged these drivers, with output contracting by 3. 6 per cent in 2020. a rebound in 2021 was insufficient to reverse the decline in output. potential output growth is projected to remain lacklustre, growing by about 2. 5 per cent a year during 2022 - 30. a reduction in the contribution of labour to potential growth is expected to be partly offset by an anaemic improvement in tfp growth and stronger investment. human capital accumulation is projected to slow owing to weaker growth in the working - age population. to sum up these trends, global growth was slowing down ahead of the pandemic relative to its performance up to the global financial crisis ( gfc ). this loss of speed was led by aes but emdes were pulled in by 2010 - 2011. only east and south asia proved resilient and maintained historical growth trends. even in these regions, the share of labour in output and its contribution by way of quality has fallen while capital accumulation has moderated. it is said that east and south asia will become the world ’ s centre of gravity and capital accumulation will continue to contribute more than half of gdp growth 6. the rest will have to come from productivity, a subject to which i will turn shortly. 5 which overlaps with north africa in the world bank ’ s analysis. 6 panagariya, a. ( 2023 ). asia is where the economic centre of gravity is shifting to ; india has to be part of it. the indian express. may 22. potential growth is weakening broadly across asia with all drivers – tfp growth, labour force growth, and capital accumulation – slackening. east asia is expected to be the emde region with the sharpest decline in both aggregate and per capita potential growth during 2022 - 30, mainly reflecting slower capital accumulation and tfp growth. the second largest decline in potential growth in 2022 - 30 is projected for central asia

of the story. the bank recently established the canadian fixed - income forum to enable a continuing dialogue, and we ’ ve modified our operations to help alleviate some of these issues. the governing council believes it ’ s important to continue studying the matter, not just as it pertains to government bonds, but also to other asset classes. given the new regulatory architecture, we may not know just how resilient market liquidity is until there ’ s a true stress event. let me now turn to vulnerabilities being created by persistently very low interest rates in canada. the post - crisis situation has quite naturally fuelled the accumulation of household debt, as well as heightened activity in the housing sector. we can observe other elements of risky financial behaviour, but these two vulnerabilities have been our main focus for some time and have continued to grow in importance since our last fsr. in terms of household debt, income growth hasn ’ t kept pace with increases in borrowing, since mortgage growth continues to rise. more borrowing was expected, given the reductions in our policy interest rate earlier this year. it ’ s important to remember that while rate reductions have increased vulnerabilities at the margin, they ’ ve also mitigated the risk to the bis central bankers ’ speeches financial system by helping offset the decline in incomes and employment tied to the drop in commodity prices. our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the number of highly indebted households in canada, by which i mean those whose debts are more than 350 per cent of their annual gross income. not only are there more of these highly indebted households, they also carry a growing share of household debt. these people are more likely to live in british columbia, alberta or ontario, where house price gains have been the largest. the governing council ’ s reading of the situation is that these vulnerabilities are quite highly concentrated – about 720, 000 households fall into this vulnerable category. in terms of the housing market, we continue to see regional markets evolving along different tracks, as we ’ ve indicated before. activity in the energy - producing regions of alberta, saskatchewan, and newfoundland and labrador has declined noticeably, which was expected following the decline in oil prices. the housing markets of toronto and vancouver have seen renewed momentum, driven by stronger employment growth and migration, both interprovincial and international. the governing council ’ s base - case scenario continues to be a constructive one : housing activity should stabilize in