ceecs : net international capital inflows ( 2003 - 2008 average ) ( as a percentage of gdp ) current account balance net capital inflows reserve assets - 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 bulgaria czech republic estonia hungary latvia lithuania poland romania slovak republic slovenia romania slovak republic slovenia source : our calculations based on data from imf weo database. ( 1 ) inflows - outflows ( excluding reserve assets ). ( 2 ) a minus sign indicates reserve accumulation. fig. 8 ceecs : gross external debt ( year - end stocks, as a percentage of gdp ) czech republic estonia bulgaria hungary latvia lithuania poland source : our calculations based on imf weo and wold bank database. bis central bankers ’ speeches fig. 9 ceecs : changes in selected variables before and after the last global crisis ( 2009 - 12 versus 2003 - 08 periods ; as a percentage of gdp ) current account gdp capital inflows - right scale domestic credit - right scale - 5 - 17 - 10 - 33 - 15 bulgaria czech republic estonia hungary latvia lithuania poland romania slovak republic slovenia source : our calculations based on imf weo and international financial statistics database. ( 1 ) changes in average balances. - ( 2 ) changes in average annual growth rates. - ( 3 ) changes in average annual flows. bis central bankers ’ speeches - 50

nout wellink : on the euro and exports, speculation and global trade speech by dr nout wellink, president of the netherlands bank and president of the bank for international settlements, on the occasion of a luncheon conference of the limburgse werkgevers vereniging, herten - roermond, 26 january 2005. * * * i shall speak to you about the euro and the consequences of its rising rate for the exports sector. but i shall also dwell on the global causes as well as the macro - economic effects of the strong euro. consequences of a rising euro rate for businesses exchange rate movements may have considerable impacts, in particular at the level of industrial operations. while perhaps it was not the low dollar rate that finished fokker, adverse exchange rates did play a role in that company ’ s fate. this stiff westerly wind rose just when fokker was most in need of the right updraught. and, if you will allow me to use an example from your region, oce – which over the course of time has proved a rich source of supervisory board members for dnb – realises much of its turnover in us dollar. in addition, many of its competitors are based in the united states or in countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar. small wonder that they keep a sharp eye on the exchange rate of the euro. on the one hand, exporters are recording declining sales and are compelled to settle for lower profit margins as a result of the high euro rate, whereas, on the other, citizens and businesses are benefiting from cheaper products from abroad. a case in point is the moderating effect of the rising euro rate on the increasing oil price. since early 2003, the dollar price for a barrel of crude oil has gone up by 48 %, while expressed in euro the price increase amounts to 21 %. also some of the activities of financial institutions profit from exchange rate fluctuations. an increase in the number of businesses hedging against – or speculating for – exchange rate fluctuations leads to higher commission income from currency translations and future contracts. the euro exchange rate not only influences the proceeds from business activities, like imports and exports. exchange rate movements also work through to the value of assets and liabilities expressed in foreign currencies. the 20 % fall of the dollar rate in 2003 translated into a eur 4 billion loss for dutch businesses, approximately 1 % of dutch national output. the net wealth effects of exchange