with implications for the permanent income of the female workers affected. in the chilean case, this is illustrated by the fact that 63 percent of the workers who emptied their pension fund accounts after withdrawing their pension savings are women. about women ’ s expectations for returning to the labor force, the cbc conducted a study that collected the testimony of a group of women who left their jobs to devote themselves to care giving and found three groups with different types of expectations. one group includes those who expect to go back to the work once the sanitary situation returns to normal. another group includes those who believe that they will not return to the labor force after the crisis, with this expectation being more recurrent in older women. finally, those who do “ estimating non - remunerated household work 2020 ” statistics division, central bank of chile. ipec, may 2021, adimark. edin and gustavsson ( 2008 ), “ time out of work and skill depreciation, ” industrial and labor relations review ; hernanz and jimeno ( 2018 ), “ inestabilidad laboral en el empleo, duracion del desempleo y depreciacion del capital humano, ” cuadernos economicos de informacion comercial espanola ice. page 10 of 27 expect to return to the labor market, but in more flexible jobs that allow them to reconcile personal duties and paid work. women ’ s attitude towards returning to the labor force will depend on both the duration of confinements and school closures, and the recovery of the traditionally more feminized areas of economic activity. however, a higher prevalence of the latter two groups harbors the risk of a slower recovery of participation rates, or that in the future we will see an increase in the underutilization of the female labor force in terms of occupations with shorter working hours or lower productivity, such as self - employment or informality. all of the above should make it clear that while a full normalization of the labor market would require reversing the loss of jobs and the exit of women from the labor force, this will not necessarily occur automatically as activity levels recover. in other words, the abrupt, prolonged and traumatic exit of hundreds of thousands of women from the labor market in 2020 has economic, social and cultural ripple effects that may extend well beyond the normal cycle and become a bottleneck to a robust, sustained and equitable economic recovery. therefore, analyzing the evolution of the

years ( cbc ) capital goods imports and ipsa ( 1 ) ( billions of dollars ) ( thousands of dollars of 2013 ; million of dollars of 2013 ) real ipsa ( t + 7 ) capital goods imports and ipsa ( 1 ) 1, 700 1, 500 1, 300 1, 100 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 ii iii iv ii iii iv ii iii iv ( 1 ) quarterly moving averages. ( 2 ) series deflated by the capital goods import price index, with base year 2013 = 100. spliced with the base year 2008 = 100 series using annual changes. for second quarter, data for the first quarter of that year are repeated. ( 3 ) excludes other transport vehicles. ( 4 ) four - quarter moving average. for each version of the cbc survey, includes 5 - year forecasts, considering the current year. sources : central bank of chile, bloomberg, and capital goods corporation ( cbc ). figure 16 output gap ( 1 ) ( level, percentage points ) mar - 21 report jun - 21 report - 4 - 8 - 12 - 16 ( 1 ) historic estimates of the gap have changed because of recalculation of potential gdp. the forecast uses the multivariate filter, which factors in the new non - mining trend gdp ( 20212030 average : 2. 9 % ). ( 2 ) dotted lines show forecast. source : central bank of chile. page 22 of 27 figure 17 inflation forecast ( annual variation, percent ) cpi mp report jun. 21 core cpi ( * ) mp report jun. 21 forecast ( * ) measured by the cpi minus volatiles. sources : central bank of chile, national statistics institute ( ine ), and health ministry of chile. figure 18 total factor productivity ( tfp ) growth in chile ( * ) ( percent ) tfp 1997 - 2019 mean 2011 - 2019 mean - 1 - 2 - 3 ( * ) annual growth in tfp for non - mining gdp. for details, see the monetary policy meeting's minutes released together with this monetary policy report. source : central bank of chile. page 23 of 27 figure 19 mpr corridor ( * ) ( percent ) 4. 0 corridor fts 3. 5 confidence interval : 66 % ees confidence interval : 33 % forward 3. 0 2. 5 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 jun / 23 mar / 23 dec / 22 sep / 22 jun / 22 mar /