economic research, march ; revised november 2023 ), https : / / www. nber. org / system / files / working _ papers / w31010 / w31010. pdf. see ryan a. decker and john haltiwanger ( 2023 ), “ surging business formation in the pandemic : causes and consequences? ” paper presented at the brookings papers on economic activity conference, held at the brookings institution, washington, september 28 – 29, https : / / www. brookings. edu / wpcontent / uploads / 2023 / 09 / 4 _ decker - haltiwanger _ unembargoed. pdf. on march 25, 2024, this speech was updated to add a new footnote 6 and renumber the remaining footnotes. - 14 adjustments can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to 2 percent while striving to maintain the strong labor market. i have covered a lot of ground with you today, material that you will learn more about if you choose further study of macroeconomics, or economics more generally. i hope you will find, as i have, that this journey feeds your curiosity, sharpens your thinking, and expands your horizons. note : percent change in the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index from 12 months ago. core refers to the price index excluding food and energy. the gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the nine shaded recession periods extend from april 1960 through february 1961, december 1969 through november 1970, november 1973 through march 1975, january 1980 through july 1980, july 1981 through november 1982, july 1990 through march 1991, march 2001 through november 2001, december 2007 through june 2009, and february 2020 through april 2020. source : bureau of economic analysis ; personal consumption expenditures price index via haver analytics. 2. subcomponents of personal consumption expenditures price indexes note : data extend through january 2024. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the shaded recession period extends from february 2020 through april 2020. source : bureau of economic analysis via haver analytics. note : percent change in various market - rate rent indexes and the housing services category of the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index from 12 months ago. corelogic, realpage, and zillow measure market - rate rents — that is, rents

year, uncertainty remains as elevated. what has changed is the nature of the uncertainty. last year, we were uncertain how far down the economy will go, in the face of an unprecedented pandemic. this year, the uncertainty is in both directions : a much stronger recovery or a much 2 / 9 bis central bankers'speeches dampened one. singapore economy the singapore economy had recouped in the first quarter of 2021 the aggregate output loss incurred during the pandemic. the recent tightening of domestic restrictions and border controls will cause a near - term setback to segments that make up about 8 % of the economy. the consumer - facing industries ( retail trade, food & beverage, and land transport services ) will be most affected by the tightening measures. the travel - related industries ( air transport, accommodation, arts, entertainment & recreation ) are likely to see further delay in their recovery. construction and marine & offshore engineering activity may be hindered by labour shortages from the border restrictions on the entry of foreign workers. but the economic impact of the current restrictions will be significantly less severe than during the circuit - breaker last year. the majority of businesses remain in operation. the broader economy should see a recovery in the second half of this year alongside strengthening global demand and further progress in our vaccination programme. trade - related activities such as manufacturing and wholesale trade will be supported by resilient global trade flows and robust upswing in the global tech cycle. modern services, particularly the financial and ict sectors, are set to expand at a firm pace this year, amid a pickup in credit intermediation activities and the ongoing digitalisation of business processes which has been accelerated by the pandemic. moreover, compared to a year ago, singapore is much better equipped to handle the pandemic, with more effective testing and tracing, swift isolation of infected cases, and vaccination. singapore ’ s gdp growth could exceed the upper end of the 4 to 6 % forecast range, barring a setback to the global economy. last month, the official forecast range was maintained at 4 to 6 % in light of the deterioration of the domestic covid - 19 situation and consequent phase two ( heightened alert ). mti, together with mas, will review the forecast range in august when preliminary estimates for q2 gdp are available. the resident unemployment rate should continue to gradually decline. total employment expanded by 14, 000 in q1 this year, the first expansion after four consecutive quarters of