of paramount importance. as the recent surge in cases in some states demonstrates, much is still unknown about how the pandemic will play out in the months ahead. that said, there have been signs that we may be past the worst of the extreme economic distress, and early indications of a recovery have started to emerge. as states began to open up and people returned to eating in restaurants and shopping in stores we've seen sizable increases in consumer spending. we've also seen increases in building permits, signaling a turnaround in the construction industry. 3 people have been getting back to work and the unemployment rate has started to edge down. although this improvement is welcome, the economy is still far from healthy and a full recovery will likely take years to achieve. 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches one of the things that's been unique about this recession is the lightning speed of events. traditional macroeconomic data sources — like the labor market report and gdp — are published with lags of weeks or months and don't typically allow one to see the changes within the month or quarter. in response, economists at the federal reserve and elsewhere have increasingly turned to analyzing a wide variety of high - frequency data, which — as the name suggests — are published daily or weekly, with only short reporting lags. 4 high - frequency data give us more timely and granular information about what's going on in the economy in between the standard macro data releases. they also help us paint a more detailed picture of people's behavior and how it's changing in the midst of unprecedented circumstances. these data tell us whether small businesses are hiring and whether people are eating in restaurants, staying in hotels, and boarding airplanes. when states started to reopen, signs from both the standard macro data and the high - frequency granular data have been encouraging. together, they indicate that we've likely seen the low point of the downturn and that the overall economy has begun to recover. even in new york, the hardest hit state, we have seen initial signs of a turnaround. surveys of manufacturing and services firms rebounded significantly in june, following record lows in april and may, and revenues of small businesses in new york have gradually picked up as well. 5 in contrast to these positive signs, we are seeing some indications of a slowing in the pace of recovery in states that are currently experiencing large - scale outbreaks. this is a valuable reminder that the economy's fate is in

##extricably linked to the path of the virus. a strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained containment of covid - 19. turning to the question of what the goals for recovery are : one measure of success is a return to the sustained growth and historically low unemployment that we had attained before the pandemic. i know this seems a long way from where we are today and may seem unreachable during these darkest days of the recession. but history teaches us that the economy can get back to full strength, even after deep downturns. policy responses the unique nature of this recession and the uncertainty that comes with it mean that the policy responses — public health, fiscal, and by the fed — need to be designed to reflect the nature of the pandemic and the challenges it poses to the economy. although i will focus on events in the united states, it is important to stress that this is a global health and economic crisis. most other countries are facing similar challenges and are likewise engaged in a range of policy actions. our economic prospects are tied to our ability to contain the spread of the virus, care for those who fall ill, and develop effective treatments. in addition, fiscal policy has played a critically important role in providing financial support to families, small businesses, and those who are out of work during the crisis. this timely support contributed greatly to the rebound in consumer spending and jobs that we have seen over the past two months. the federal reserve has taken rapid and significant actions to stabilize critical parts of our financial system and to support the flow of credit, thereby helping position the economy for a strong and sustained return to maximum employment and price stability. in march, the federal open market committee ( fomc ) brought the target range for the federal funds rate to near zero. 6 the fomc has indicated that it expects to keep interest rates at this level until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. 7 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches bringing interest rates down to near zero makes it easier for households and businesses to meet their borrowing needs and fosters favorable financial conditions that will help promote a rebound in spending and investment. in addition, the fed has been conducting large - scale repo operations and purchasing sizable quantities of u. s. treasury securities and agency mortgage - backed securities to support market functioning at a time of extraordinary volatility in markets. 8 these actions averted a