samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
, and that should help support the recovery. in the meantime, we are using our tools to help build a bridge from the solid economic foundation on which we entered this crisis to a position of regained economic strength on the other side. i want to close by thanking the millions on the front lines : those working in health care, sanitation, transportation, grocery stores, warehouses, deliveries, security — including our own team at the federal reserve — and countless others. day after day, you have put yourselves in harm ’ s way for others : to care for us, to ensure we have access to the things we need, and to help us through this difficult time. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

the incoming data. both the timing and the pace will be proportionate to the evolution of the inflation outlook in relation to our price stability objective. if the evolution of the inflation outlook supported by incoming data allows a further normalisation of monetary policy, we stand ready to adjust our instruments accordingly. meanwhile, we will continue to fully reinvest the maturing securities acquired in the context of our asset purchase programmes past the date on which we start raising the key ecb interest rates. whenever we face renewed pandemic - related threats of market fragmentation that are a risk to price stability, the reinvestments that we undertake under the pepp can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions to counter those threats. moreover, we can design and deploy new instruments to counter any threats to price stability that may emerge as we move along the path of policy normalisation. conclusion let me conclude. the scottish philosopher david hume once said that a wise person proportions their beliefs to the evidence. likewise, i think the evidence should proportion a wise person ’ s actions. this is as true for a wise monetary policymaker pursuing price stability as it is for a wise judge delivering a sound verdict, or a wise construction worker securing structural integrity. in our case, it is our evidence - based monetary policy strategy that enables us to do exactly this. and by paving the way for gradual normalisation with significant policy optionality to account for uncertainty, we are putting it into practice. we will proportion our actions to the evidence. that way, our commitment to maintain medium - term price stability remains rock - solid. 1 lenaerts, k. ( 2021 ), “ proportionality as a matrix principle promoting the effectiveness of eu law and the legitimacy of eu action ”, keynote speech at the 2021 ecb legal conference on “ continuity and change – how the challenges of today prepare the ground for tomorrow ”, 25 november. 5 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches 2 lagarde, c. ( 2022 ), “ monetary policy in an uncertain world ”, speech at “ the ecb and its watchers xxii ” conference, frankfurt am main, 17 march. 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches
it will seek input from the entire ecosystem to co - design practical methods for implementing - and supervising - the ai act. that is why i am today calling on volunteer companies in the financial sector to contact the acpr staff to take part in our work. for the stability of the financial sector, we must collectively master the uses of ai ; together, let's rise to this challenge! thank you for your attention. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

denis beau : mastering ai in the financial sector - let us collectively rise the challenge! speech by mr denis beau, first deputy governor of the bank of france, at the paris financial centre event devoted to artificial intelligence, paris, 11 december 2024. * * * ladies and gentlemen, first of all, i would like to thank the organisers for their invitation to this paris financial centre event devoted to artificial intelligence ( ai ) : it gives me the opportunity to continue the dialogue that we at the banque de france and the acpr have been conducting with financial players on this important matter for the industry. i'll be brief on the observation : ai is one of the most powerful forces driving the current transformation of the financial sector. its adoption has accelerated with the advent of generative ai, which has made the opportunities in terms of productivity, customer interaction, compliance management, etc. more accessible - and visible to all. as supervisors, but also as users of these new technologies, every day we can see the speed and potential of this phenomenon. naturally, these technologies can give rise to many risks, for all financial system participants as well as for the stability of the system as a whole. it is essential that they are properly managed : the following round - table discussion will shed light on these risks and the operational challenges they present. i'll mention just one of them now, but not the least important : cyber risk. in my view, it is a good illustration of the complex issues we are facing. ai amplifies cyber risks, not least because it is used by attackers to increase their effectiveness ; ai also has its own specific vulnerabilities ( such as the risk of data poisoning ). conversely, ai can provide the antidote, and improve it security management, for example, by helping to detect suspicious behaviour or new threats. greater cooperation is needed in this area between data scientists and cybersecurity specialists, in order to unlock the full potential of ai for cybersecurity. i would now like to turn to the regulatory and supervisory aspects that a supervisor naturally thinks of when discussing the opportunities and risks of ai. the european union has been a pioneer in this field, with the ai act. this will mainly concern the financial sector for two use cases : creditworthiness assessment for granting credit to individuals, and risk assessment and pricing in health and life insurance. the acpr should be responsible for enforcing this regulation, as market surveillance authority. this new regulation, and
state, and i don ’ t think that i need to highlight the scope of the problem here. similarly, i think the effect on the economy of an energy shortage should be fairly straightforward : energy is one of the key inputs in any value - added production process. less energy availability will translate into lower output. the solutions to the energy problem will take time – unfortunately, there is no magic pill here. we will need to invest in infrastructure for hydro - electricity, natural gas transportation and transmission, and more efficient power plants. moreover, we will need to move to greater private sector participation in the energy sector. that means there will, once again, be a need for less, but more effective regulation – one that safeguards the rights of both producers and consumers, while ensuring adequate incentives for the exploitation of our natural resources the most important incentive here will be prices. unfortunately, a large part of our energy problems today can be traced to a mispricing of fuels. under - pricing any commodity will always lead to a shortage – that ’ s one of the fundamental axioms of economics. letting the market decide the price is one way of ensuring that future shortages are averted. but remember that markets do not have morals – and that ’ s why we will need regulation to make sure that those markets serve and protect the interests of all stakeholders. at this point, i would also like to touch very briefly upon the state bank ’ s efforts to accelerate economic growth. as you may know, any central bank ’ s primary policy tool is the discount rate – the basic interest rate which acts as an anchor for all other rates in the economy. unlike most central banks, and similar to the us federal reserve, the state bank has a dual mandate : it must tackle the issue of maintaining price stability, i. e. inflation, while also keeping an eye on economic growth. the preamble to the sbp act of 1956 defines that the institution has “ to regulate the monetary and credit system of pakistan and to foster its growth in the best national interest with a view to securing monetary stability and fuller bis central bankers ’ speeches utilization of the country ’ s productive resources ”. so at the state bank, we need to pay close attention to both monetary stability and fuller utilization of the country ’ s resources. that is a tough balance to strike in the best of times. the bank ’ s policy is to use any room available to cut interest rates in order to promote economic growth. after being in doubledig

2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches macroeconomic imbalance procedure over time and across countries remains essential to increase the resilience of the euro area economy. strengthening economic and monetary union remains a priority. the governing council welcomes the ongoing discussions on completing the banking union and the capital markets union, and on further enhancing the institutional architecture of our economic and monetary union. we are now at your disposal for questions. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
impaired to a point where economic growth and welfare may be materially affected. see : www. ecb. europa. eu / pub / fsr / html / index. en. html 4 see for example for a theoretical explanation : korinek, a. and a. simsek ( 2016 ) “ liquidity trap and excessive leverage ”, american economic review 2016, 106 ( 3 ) : 699 – 738, g. b. eggertsson and p. krugman ( 2012 ) “ debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap : a fisher - minsky - koo approach ”, the quarterly journal of economics, volume 127, issue 3, 1 august 2012, pages 1469 – 1513. 5 see for example bean, c., m. paustian, a. penalver and t. taylor ( 2010 ), “ monetary policyafter the fall, ” in macroeconomic challenges : the decade ahead, federal reserve bank ofkansas city, issing, o. ( 2011 ), “ lessons for monetary policy : what should the consensus be? ”, imf working paper wp / 11 / 97, april, white, w. r. ( 2006 ), “ is price stability enough? ”, bis working papers no. 205, april, and white, w. r. ( 2009 ), “ should monetary policy ‘ lean or clean? ’ ”, federal reserve bank of dallas working paper no. 34. 6 see constancio, v. ( 2018 ) “ financial stability risks and macroprudential policy in the euro area ”, speech by vitor constancio, vice - president of the ecb, at the ecb and its watchers xix conference, frankfurt am main, 14 march 2018 and references therein, and svensson, l. ( 2017 ) “ cost - benefit analysis of leaning against the wind, ” journal of monetary economics 90, 193 – 213. 7 see cecchetti et al. ( 2000 ) ; borio ( 2012 ),, hanson, kashyap & stein ( 2011 ), 8 see crockett, a. d. “ marrying the micro - and macro - prudential dimensions of financial stability ”, remarks before the eleventh international conference of banking supervisors, held in basel, 20 – 21 september 2000. borio, c. ( 2003 ), “ towards a macroprudential framework for financial supervision and regulation? ”

need robust recovery and resolution arrangements for ccps, to preserve financial stability in all circumstances. before i leave you to discuss this complex issue, i would like to offer a few thoughts : – the cornerstone principle of resolution is always financial stability : this should be achieved through the continuity of ccp services when possible, but not at the expense of the financial survival of ccp members and clients. – the permanent cost of such a regime should be assessed carefully in order to preserve incentives in favor of central clearing. ccps already have properly sized financial resources and a sound business model that must be preserved. – resolution arrangements should balance predictability for ccp participants and flexibility for the resolution authorities, whose task to preserve financial stability in the most extreme circumstances should not be hampered. – and lastly, cooperation between authorities and consistency at the international level are key to ensure efficient resolution planning and resolution actions, and to avoid regulatory loopholes and arbitrage. this conference is indeed illustrative of the spirit for further international cooperation in this field. thank you for your attention. i wish you a very fruitful conference. bis central bankers ’ speeches
novel. environmental threats were here in both the 19th and the 20th century. still, history has placed it on us to solve them, and this involves both the banking industry and central banks. it is up to us to act wisely, and in this tight spot between great expectations of the regulators and the inherited excessive freedoms, act in the general interest and in the name of the market, capitalism and democracy. throughout history, banks were and they remain temples that are eagerly built and that epitomise power, and at the same time they were not favoured by those who had to pray in them. but they will remain a necessity in every society. therefore, if you see every investment in our citizens and economy as an investment in the future, then the following anniversary will also be celebrated as a period of successful continuity. happy anniversary! 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

) 2018 ( new projection ) 2019 ( new projection ) 6, 6 2, 2 ( in index points ) ( in % ) 6, 4 2, 0 2, 7 2, 5 2, 3 2, 0 1, 7 1, 4 1, 1 - 1 1, 5 - 2 china russia usa italy germany euro area gdp, s - a ( lhs ) * eurocoin ( lhs ) eurozone composite pmi ( rhs ) - 3 i iii i iii i iii i iii i iii i iii i iii i iii i iii i iii 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 sources : eurostat, markit group and banca d ’ italia. sources : imf weo ( october 2017 ) and imf weo update ( january 2018 ). * eurostat preliminary estimate for q4 2017. both supply - side factors and expectations that demand will rise more rapidly with global growth acceleration. in january, the brent oil price exceeded usd 70 per barrel, which is its highest level since december 2014. owing to higher energy prices, global inflation is somewhat higher than in the earlier period, but still no stronger inflationary pressures are expected in the majority of countries. in addition, based on oil futures that we use in our projection, we do not expect further growth in global oil prices. of course, deviations are possible both for oil prices and prices of other primary commodities. chart 5 oil and copper price movements ( average monthly prices, in usd ) chart 6 prices of primary agricultural commodities and their futures 10. 000 9. 000 8. 000 ( usd / t ) 7. 000 6. 000 5. 000 4. 000 3. 000 2. 000 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 price of brent oil per barrel ( lhs ) brent oil futures ( lhs ) price of copper per ton ( rhs ) source : bloomberg. copper futures ( rhs ) 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 corn wheat source : cbot - chicago boаrd of trade. also, the leading central banks continue to pursue diverging monetary policies due to different economic cycle phases of their economies, while financial conditions remain favourable. thus,
undertook interventions to contain volatility in the foreign exchange market. it calibrated its liquidity operations in a manner that balanced financial stability considerations and medium - term inflation risks. moreover, to protect the depositors of the banking system from any undue decrease in interest rates by the banks, sbp imposed a minimum rate of 6 percent on savings deposits and has recently linked this minimum rate to its repo rate. the minimum rate on savings deposits now stands at 6. 5 percent. as a result of these actions, the weighted average lending rate declined by 423 basis points by end - july 2013 while deposits of the banking system grew by 15. 9 percent and the depreciation of the exchange rate was limited to 5. 1 percent in fy13. moreover, a declining interest rate environment did contribute in a marginal pick up in loans to some sectors of private businesses in fy13 and q1 - fy14. however, as has been the case for some years now, most of the credit disbursed during fy13 was utilized for working capital requirements only ; loans availed for fixed investments show retirement. thus, there has been no real broad - based recovery in credit utilization by the private sector. as a result, real private investment expenditures have declined for the fifth consecutive year, reaching 8. 7 as percent of gdp in fy13. this shows that higher interest rates were not the major constraining reason for the private sector credit off - take. two fundamental factors responsible for the lackluster increase in credit demand are : persistence of energy shortages and deterioration in law and order conditions. unless we overcome these, chances of reviving the economy through monetary policy stimulus would remain thin. despite being in the imf program, going forward, however, the challenges remain. the pressure on the external front has not fully abated. the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank as of october end, 2013 stand at us $ 4. 3 billion and rupee dollar parity at rs106 per dollar. moreover, there are certain performance criteria for the imf loan that we have to meet. we also need to implement strict reforms on the fiscal side. it needs to be understood that these reforms are absolutely essential. the aim of these reforms is to balance the budget in the medium term and reduce public debt to create space for private sector investments. further, we need to be highly cautious and selective in terms of public expenditures as our debt burden continues to grow

wong for their contributions to the material in this speech. this assumes that the average size of new migrant households is not that different from that for existing residents. this a strong assumption, so the 200, 000 figure should be treated as an upper bound. ellis l ( 2019 ), ‘ lumps, bumps and waves ’, address to the ai group, geelong, 4 october. ellis l ( 2014 ), ‘ space and stability : some reflections on the housing – finance system ’, address to the citi residential housing conference, sydney, 15 may. these are the only economies for which comparable data on advertised rents or new rental contracts are available to us.
are somewhat greater, but on balance they still justify a fair degree of optimism. in short, i am confident that the euro area economy is likely to experience sustained non - inflationary growth in the future, thereby contributing to growth and economic stability on a global scale.

, deep and liquid euro area capital market may lead to greater use of the euro through lower transaction costs. this may, in turn, facilitate the development of the euro as a vehicle currency for trade and commodity pricing. in addition, if international investors and issuers consider the euro to be a stable currency, they will hold euro assets to minimise risk in their internationally diversified portfolios. only if investors outside the euro area are confident that their purchasing power will be preserved over time will they engage in euro - denominated financial activities. besides price stability, the current and expected growth performance of the euro area economy is an additional factor behind the attractiveness of the euro. sustained non - inflationary growth in the euro area economy is thus also likely to have beneficial effects on market expectations and encourage the international use of the euro. looking at official international uses, the euro is the second most widely used official reserve currency after the us dollar. the gap between the two currencies, however, is wide. according to the latest available data, at the end of 1999 the euro accounted for around 13 % of the world's official foreign currency holdings compared with a us dollar share of around 70 %. as an anchor currency, the euro plays a role in the exchange rate regime of more than 50 countries outside the euro area. the solutions adopted by these countries range from very close or even full links to the euro, such as the formal entitlement to use the euro as legal tender, to looser types of anchoring, such as peg arrangements and crawling fluctuation bands. it will be no surprise to you to hear that developments in the eu accession countries are of particular importance for the ecb. after all, these countries are expected to join the eu in a few years'time. furthermore, it is worth recalling that the proper adoption of the acquis communautaire also includes the provisions relating to economic and monetary union. the central banks of the current candidate countries will therefore also become candidates for the adoption of the euro at a later point in time. this is reflected in the fact that the existing close links between the euro area and the accession countries have further intensified. to give just two examples, the euro has inherited from the deutsche mark the role of vehicle currency for exchanging other european currencies in accession countries. furthermore, it is worth pointing out that the share of the euro in the reserves of eu accession countries has increased somewhat since 1999 and now actually exceeds the
and japan from january 1995 through march 1999. source : for japan, ministry of internal affairs and communications ; for sweden, switzerland, and the euro area, statistical office of the european communities ; for canada, statistics canada ; all via haver analytics.

and most complex institutions. moreover, the basel ii framework is inherently dynamic ; it will be able to adapt to ongoing innovation and change. but i also want to convey today that basel ii remains very much a work in progress. as we proceed toward the implementation of this framework, success will require that bank regulators, the banking industry, the congress, and other relevant parties engage in an ongoing and frank dialogue, and that policymakers be open - minded, flexible, and ready to make needed adjustments. for our part, the federal reserve is committed to getting basel ii right. financial innovations in mortgage and other markets as in years past, the chicago fed has chosen wisely in selecting the theme of the conference. innovations in the financing of homes and other real estate have come at a remarkable pace over the past decade or more, leading to more sophisticated and flexible instruments, more liquid markets, and better risk - sharing. taking full advantage of these innovations has required banks and other institutions to make important improvements in risk measurement and risk management. financial innovations and improved risk management have not been limited to real estate finance, of course. securitization, improved hedging instruments and strategies, more - liquid markets, greater riskbased pricing, and the data - collection and management systems needed to implement such innovations have also occurred in other retail and wholesale markets. in my talk, i will use the terms " bank " and " banking organization " interchangeably. a second major contribution of basel i was that it created international standards for measuring bank capital. in my judgment, these developments, on net, have provided significant benefits. borrowers have more choices and greater access to credit ; lenders and investors are better able to measure and manage risk ; and, because of the dispersion of financial risks to those more willing and able to bear them, the economy and the financial system are more resilient. to be sure, rapid financial innovation carries some risks, if new instruments are used improperly or if the market infrastructure that facilitates the trading of those instruments is inadequate. regulators must be aware of and ready to mitigate those risks. overall, however, the public interest is served both by the prudent use of new financial instruments and by the improvements in risk - measurement and risk - management practices that prudent use requires. implications for financial regulation as market participants innovate and markets become more efficient and sophisticated, bank regulators and supervisors must ensure that they do not fall behind. indeed, a