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##il over the longer haul. the recent shift in expectations, however, has been substantial enough and persistent enough to direct business - investment decisions in favor of energy - cost reduction. over the past decade, energy consumed, measured in british thermal units, per real dollar of gross nonfinancial, non - energy corporate product in the united states has declined substantially, and this trend may be expected to accelerate in coming years. in japan, as well, energy use has declined as a fraction of gdp, but these savings were largely achieved in previous decades, and energy intensity has been flat more recently. we can expect similar increases in oil efficiency in the rapidly growing economies of east asia as they respond to the same set of market incentives. but at present, china consumes roughly twice as much oil per dollar of gdp as the united states, and if, as projected, its share of world gdp continues to increase, the average improvements in world oil - intensity will be less pronounced than the improvements in individual countries, viewed separately, would suggest. * * * we cannot judge with certainty how technological possibilities will play out in the future, but we can say with some assurance that developments in energy markets will remain central in determining the longer - run health of our nations'economies. the experience of the past fifty years - - and indeed much longer than that - - affirms that market forces play a key role in conserving scarce energy resources, directing those resources to their most highly valued uses. however, the availability of adequate productive capacity will also be driven by nonmarket influences and by other policy considerations. to be sure, energy issues present policymakers with difficult tradeoffs to consider. the concentration of oil reserves in politically volatile areas of the world is an ongoing concern. but that concern and others, one hopes, will be addressed in a manner that, to the greatest extent possible, does not distort or stifle the meaningful functioning of our markets. barring political impediments to the operation of markets, the same price signals that are so critical for balancing energy supply and demand in the short run also signal profit opportunities for long - term supply expansion. moreover, they stimulate the research and development that will unlock new approaches to energy production and use that we can now only barely envision. improving technology and ongoing shifts in the structure of economic activity are reducing the energy intensity of industrial countries, and presumably recent oil price increases will accelerate the pace of displacement of energy - intensive production facilities.