going forward, the global economy is expected to continue growing at a moderate pace. in the world economic outlook ( weo ) released by the international monetary fund ( imf ), growth projections have continued to be revised upward, and both advanced and emerging economies are expected to maintain their firm growth through next year. at international conferences i have recently attended, a frequently used phrase has been " synchronous growth " of the global economy. at those conferences, participants from various economies all looked brighter than they used to, which has given me the strong impression that the global economy has entered a new stage. ii. economic developments in japan : long - lasting recovery next, i will touch upon developments in japan's economy. the economy has improved steadily this year, backed in part by the developments in the global economy that i just outlined. real gdp for the july - september quarter registered relatively high growth of 2. 5 percent on an annualized basis, representing positive growth for the seventh consecutive quarter since the january - march quarter of 2016. in detail, japan's exports have been on an increasing trend, mainly led by it - related goods exports to asia. domestic demand has also increased. specifically, business fixed investment has continued on an increasing trend with corporate profits improving. private consumption has been increasing moderately, albeit with fluctuations, against the background of steady improvement in the employment and income situation. public investment also has remained at a relatively high level due in part to the implementation of the government's stimulus measures formulated in fiscal 2016. as these developments show, japan's economy is currently expanding moderately in a well - balanced manner, supported by multiple factors - - namely, external demand, domestic private demand, and domestic public demand. another salient feature of japan's recent economy is that the benefits of the economic expansion have been spreading to a wide range of economic entities. according to the bank's tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in japan ), the diffusion indexes ( dis ) for business conditions have continued to be positive, not only for large enterprises and manufacturers but also for small enterprises and nonmanufacturers ( chart 2 ). also, by region, the dis have improved significantly for all regions. the current economic recovery is also characterized by its long duration. the duration of the current recovery phase, which started in december 2012, likely reached 60 consecutive months in november 2017 ( chart 3 ). this exceeds the 57 months of the izan

s. economic activity therefore still looks unlikely to accelerate and remains vulnerable to downside risks. i personally have remained cautious about the outlook for the u. s. economy throughout. however, forecasts by private - sector economists have fluctuated greatly since the beginning of 2010. 8 the divergent views regarding the outlook have probably been caused by differing opinions regarding the time it will take to resolve the balance - sheet problems. a risk common to many advanced economies is the sharp growth in public debt. when the market ’ s confidence in fiscal sustainability declines, economic activity is negatively affected due to the adverse feedback loop between financial and economic activity. in some peripheral european countries, such a negative feedback loop has already materialized, creating persistent tensions in financial markets. however, this has not spread to other regions so far thanks to the establishment and expansion of support mechanisms to maintain stability in the region such as the european financial stability facility. the political unrest in north africa and the middle east is believed to have been triggered by rising food prices, which meant that a growing part of the population was thrown into poverty. at the meeting of the group of twenty ( g - 20 ) finance ministers and central bank governors held in february 2011, it was agreed to create a new study group charged with examining the impact of rising global commodity prices on global economic and financial conditions and reporting back to the g - 20. forecasts for u. s. economic growth for both 2010 and 2011 by private - sector economists as of the beginning of 2010 averaged between 3. 0 and 3. 5 percent. in the summer of 2010, the forecasts were revised downward to levels well below 3. 0 percent, and were then revised upward again toward the end of 2010. these fluctuations in the forecasts caused swings in the sentiment of households, firms, and financial markets, and led to increased volatility in economic activity. bis central bankers ’ speeches iii. growth potential of the japanese economy so far, i have talked about the outlook for the japanese economy from a cyclical perspective. i would now like to discuss it from a longer - term perspective. since 1990, following the bursting of the bubble economy, japan ’ s average annual growth has hovered at a low level of around 1 – 2 percent. the sustained economic expansion from fiscal 2002 to 2007 was in reality supported by a global financial bubble. with the benefit of hindsight, i am afraid i have to say that it is clear the self - sustaining growth mechanism during that period was not sufficiently