to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next monetary policy meeting in march and we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy. keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. moreover, from the beginning of march 2023, the app portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace, as the eurosystem will not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data - dependent and determined meeting by meeting. we stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate to ensure that inflation returns to our medium - term target. we are now ready to take your questions. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

. we are committed to using our policy interest rate to return inflation to target and will do so forcefully if needed. let me now say a few words about the governing council ’ s deliberations. we of course discussed the economic impact of the invasion of ukraine. the war has led to higher and more volatile energy prices. the war has also disrupted trade, increased uncertainty and caused volatility in financial markets. this will weigh on global growth, particularly in eastern europe. the impact of the war on growth in canada is likely to be small for two reasons. first, our economic links to ukraine and russia are very limited. and second, while the war has reduced global growth overall, it has increased the demand and prices for commodities we produce and export, such as oil, potash and wheat. we spent considerable time discussing the impact of higher inflation on canadians and on their inflation expectations. people are increasingly expecting inflation will be higher for longer. but they continue to see inflation coming down, and their longer - term inflation expectations are still anchored on the 2 % target. finally, we discussed the impact of increasing our policy interest rate. while we have been clear that canadians should expect a rising path for interest rates, seeing their mortgage payments and other borrowing costs increase can be worrying. we will be assessing the impacts of higher interest rates on the economy carefully. we also discussed where rates might end up — how high will they need to go? i know many canadians have the same question. so let me share the governing council ’ s thinking. canadians should expect interest rates to continue to rise toward more normal settings. by more normal we mean within the range we consider for a neutral rate of interest that neither stimulates nor weighs on the economy. the neutral interest rate isn ’ t something we can measure directly. we have to estimate it. and our estimate is between 2 % and 3 %. today we raised the policy rate to 1 %, still well below neutral. this is also below the pre - pandemic policy rate of 1. 75 %. 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches it is important to remember that we have an inflation target, not an interest rate target. this means governing council is not on autopilot to a pre - set destination for the policy interest rate. how high rates go will depend on how the economy responds and how the outlook for inflation evolves. the economy has entered this period of excess demand with considerable momentum and high inflation, and we are committed