##lendars. htm. - 2outcomes rather than the outlook corresponds to the shift in our monetary policy approach that suggests policy should be patient rather than preemptive at this stage in the recovery. outcomes recent data indicate that activity has picked up this year. after a dip in the final months of 2020, personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) stepped up considerably so far this year, and spending on durable goods has been particularly strong. this pattern appears consistent with a quick spend - out from the consolidated appropriations act ( caa ) stimulus checks at the turn of the year, particularly among lower - income households that may have previously exhausted the funds provided in the cares act ( coronavirus aid, relief, and economic security act ). 3 like the spending data, the labor market data turned more positive in january and february following weakness at the end of 2020. although the unemployment rate has moved down 1 / 2 a percentage point since december, the k - shaped labor market recovery remains uneven across racial groups, industries, and wage levels. 4 the employment - to - population ( epop ) ratio for black prime - age workers is 7. 2 percentage points lower than for white workers, while the epop ratio is 6. 2 percentage points lower for hispanic workers than for white workers — an increase in each gap of about 3 percentage points from pre - crisis lows in october 2019. see, for example, the difference in high - frequency indicators of consumer spending between measures of total spending and spending in low - income zip codes in the weeks following the payment of stimulus under the caa. data are available from opportunity insights at https : / / www. tracktherecovery. org. for further discussion of differing spend - out of covid stimulus payments for different levels of household wealth, see, for example, ezra karger and aastha rajan, “ heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume : evidence from covid - 19 stimulus payments, ” working paper no 2020 - 15 ( chicago : federal reserve bank of chicago, may, revised october ), https : / / www. chicagofed. org / publications / working - papers / 2020 / 2020 - 15. see lael brainard ( 2021 ), “ full employment in the new monetary policy framework, ” speech delivered at the inaugural mike mccracken lecture on full employment, sponsored by the canadian association for business economics ( via webcast ), january 13, https : / /

www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20210113a. htm ; and lael brainard ( 2021 ), “ how should we think about full employment in the federal reserve's dual mandate? ” speech delivered at the ec10, principles of economics, lecture, faculty of arts and sciences, harvard university, cambridge, mass. ( via webcast ), february 24, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20210224a. htm. - 3workers in the lowest - wage quartile continued to face staggering levels of unemployment of around 22 percent in february, reflecting the disproportionate concentration of lower - wage jobs in services sectors still sidelined by social distancing. 5 the leisure and hospitality sector is still down almost 3. 5 million jobs, or roughly 20 percent of its pre - covid level. this sector accounts for more than 40 percent of the net decline in private payrolls since february 2020. overall, with 9. 5 million fewer jobs than pre - covid levels, we are far from our broad - based and inclusive maximum - employment goal. inflation similarly remains far from the goal of 2 percent inflation on average over time. both headline and core pce inflation were below 2 percent on a 12 - month basis throughout 2020 and came in at 1. 5 percent in january. finally, while vaccinations are continuing at an accelerating pace, over two - thirds of the adult population have yet to receive their first dose, and there are risks from more contagious strains of the virus, social - distancing fatigue, and vaccine hesitancy. 6 outlook as the economy reopens, the potential release of pent - up demand could drive stronger growth in 2021 than we have seen in decades. however, it is uncertain how much pent - up consumption will be unleashed when social distancing completely lifts, and how much household spending will result from the new stimulus and accumulated savings. with pce accounting for roughly 70 percent of the economy, this uncertainty about consumption spending contributes to uncertainty about activity, employment, and inflation. for more information on this analysis, see the box “ disparities in job loss during the pandemic ” in board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2021 ), monetary policy report ( washington : board of governors, february ), pp