moderating, although it remains elevated. 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches looking ahead, economic growth is expected to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025. this reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending as borrowing costs ease. business investment is also expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and residential investment is forecast to grow robustly. overall, with the economy strengthening, excess supply will be absorbed next year and into 2026. cpi inflation moderated to 2. 7 % in june after increasing in may, and broad inflationary pressures continued to ease. the bank's preferred measures of core inflation have now been below 3 % for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the cpi is near its historical average. corporate pricing behaviour has largely normalized, and near - term inflation expectations have come down, although they are still above normal. however, shelter price inflation remains high. inflationary pressures are also evident in services that are closely affected by wages, such as restaurants and personal care. the bank's preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2a½ % in the second half of 2024 and ease further in 2025. cpi inflation is forecast to come down below core this fall and settle sustainably around the 2 % target next year, but it's unlikely to be a straight line. as always, there are risks around our inflation outlook. globally, geopolitical uncertainty is high. here in canada, the biggest downside risk is that household spending could be weaker than expected. on the upside, inflation in shelter and other services could prove more persistent. let me conclude. with broad price pressures continuing to ease and inflation expected to move closer to the 2 % target, governing council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. in recent months, we have continued to make progress bringing inflation down. with the target in sight and more excess supply in the economy, the downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations. we need growth to pick up so inflation does not fall too much, even as we work to get inflation down to the 2 % target. we are carefully assessing the downward pull on inflation from ongoing excess supply, and the pressures from shelter and other services that are holding inflation up. monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. the bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price

to see that lenders are taking a reasonable and controlled approach. all such sales must also comply with the affordability and suitability provisions set out in the consumer protection code. mortgage arrears resolution strategies : looking further ahead unsustainable mortgages, buy to let and negative equity mortgages, along with enhanced resources and infrastructure, are our immediate priorities in the follow up work with the banks. frankly, with such a difficult and complex issue there is a capacity constraint in the banks and we are wary about pressing to improve all the aspects of the banks strategies simultaneously for fear of not making sustainable progress on any as a consequence. however, looking further ahead we will plan to examine more closely the banks pre - arrears strategies, for example, and will, as i said earlier be both reviewing the effectiveness of the code of conduct on mortgage arrears and assessing banks ’ compliance with it. as part of the central bank ’ s on - going research on the mortgage market, a household income survey is being conducted. the survey will provide a more accurate picture of the financial position of a representative sample of mortgaged households. it is due to be in the field very shortly, with results and analysis being published later in the year. the immediate focus of our efforts has been on the seven largest lenders that account for nearly 90 % of the mortgage market ( by value ) and three quarters of arrears over 90 days. however, we will be following up with the other lenders who have sent in strategies to give them feedback and to press for improvements as needed. we are also in parallel undertaking some consumer research to inform our work. in conjunction with the household income survey i just mentioned, our consumer protection division is conducting a survey on a subsample of borrowers who are in pre - arrears and arrears and are in the mortgage arrears resolution process. the research will involve borrowers who have mortgages with four mainstream lenders and are in the marp since 1 january 2011, when the revised code came into effect. we want to understand the borrower ’ s experience and treatment when in the marp. the research will focus on areas of the marp which would not be easily learned from a client file during an inspection such as whether the information received by the customer was explained clearly and the type of support the customer received from the lender when going through the marp. our findings will feed into the review of the ccma planned for