purposes. the fund is strictly and effectively " out of bounds " to special interests. it is important that this remains a feature in the future. we now have close to fifteen years of a rapidly expanding fund behind us, and it is becoming more likely that the fund will be a very long - term savings plan. the plan is underpinned by a political commitment to spend only the expected real return of four per cent over the business cycle. nevertheless, we should not underestimate the risk that extraordinary economic circumstances could turn a surplus into a deficit. the accumulation of capital in the fund reflects the depletion of a non - renewable resource, which is exchanged for financial assets through the fund ’ s investments. sound returns on these investments will help us cope with future financial commitments linked to an ageing population. but at the same time as the wave of an ageing population flows towards us with its demand for public services and increased consumption, we also should ask if investments in norway could be an alternative to those we make in international financial markets. and clearly, a good argument could be made for investing more in schools, universities and research to develop our human capital. but that should be possible in any case, given the increased spending the fiscal rule already allows for. it could also be argued that we should invest more in our domestic infrastructure, for example roads and highways. this may be important for regional reasons. but on the margin, these investments are probably not adding very much to our economic growth. to illustrate this point, the net present value of road projects in the new 10 - year national investment plan is estimated at some minus nok 20 billion after positive effects on road safety and the environment have been taken into account. 1 among other important tasks in coming years and decades, the government would need return from financial assets to provide for future pensioners. we can probably expect that productivity and real wages will continue to grow in parallel, and future pensioners would most likely want to take part in that welfare gain. this may imply that government expenditures will increase more than the overall growth in the economy, as the number of pensioners is growing fast and the demand for healthcare also will be higher. although real wages increase, it will not be easy to raise the tax level. thus, the government will need return from financial assets to finance the increased expenditure for pensioners. international capital markets have played a crucial role in allowing us to follow the strategy for extraction of petroleum. we drew heavily on borrowing

taking place in the swedish labour market, there may be reason to expect a reduction in the supply of swedish labour to norway. the supply of labour is also affected by developments in persons on disability benefit and sickness absence. the trend in sickness absence has reversed and is now rising, and the number of persons on disability benefit continues to show a steady increase. this is offsetting the rise in the supply of labour stemming from inward labour migration when we look at the labour market as a whole. behind us, we have a period of moderate wage settlements. it appears that the wage settlements this spring will, as expected, result in somewhat higher wage growth. measured in terms of relative labour costs in a common currency, competitiveness can be estimated to be close to 8 per cent weaker than the average for the past 30 years. over the past 30 years, manufacturing industry has been scaled back in waves. ahead of these periods, the manufacturing sector ’ s competitiveness deteriorated. the last wave came after the turn of the millennium. the decline has now come to a halt, or at least taken a break, in spite of the strong real exchange rate. high export prices, solid demand for many norwegian export goods and buoyant growth in oil - related industries are making a contribution. according to statistics norway ’ s business sentiment survey of industrial leaders, growth in production and employment is expected to continue in the period ahead. according to norges bank ’ s regional network, capacity utilisation is high in manufacturing, particularly among suppliers to the oil industry. norges bank ’ s regional network is an important part of the information basis for our analyses of the norwegian economy. information about the state of the norwegian economy is available earlier than information provided by official statistics, and it is edifying to have closer contact with the labour market and business and industry throughout the country. the main impression from the latest round of interviews is that demand and output are rising in all sectors. growth is expected to remain high over the next six months. the industry structure in north and south trøndelag does not differ substantially in most sectors from the country as a whole. the exception is the primary industries, which play a far more important role in these two counties than in the rest of the country. the share employed in the public sector is also somewhat higher than in norway as a whole. developments in north and south trøndelag counties are largely consistent with the overall picture for norway. suppliers to the petroleum industry and business sector services