samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
example, the latest cbi survey shows 62 % of manufacturers reporting some spare capacity – which is virtually in line with the average for the decade before the financial crisis. 6 the evidence on wages and prices is also consistent with the view that spare capacity is not exerting as much downward pressure on inflation as the mpc expected last summer. in the manufacturing sector, underlying wage growth is back up to the 4 – 5 % level already, though is more subdued in the services sector. and after quite widespread pay freezes last year, the latest pay settlements data from income data services show that the most popular range for pay settlements is currently 2 – 3 %, which is where four out of ten pay settlements are now being struck. if the recovery continues and headline inflation remains relatively high, there may be a further upward drift in pay growth in the private sector, offsetting some of the downward pressure on wage growth from the public sector. uk inflation performance that brings me to the final area where the uk economy has performed very differently to expectations last summer – headline inflation. the uk has just experienced the second significant upward spike in inflation in the last couple of years. since the beginning of 2008, when the financial crisis and the ensuing recession might have been expected to push down inflation, consumer price inflation in the uk has averaged 3 % – above the 2 % target and more than one percentage point higher than average cpi inflation in the pre - recession period of growth. our inflation rate is clearly influenced by external factors in the world economy, such as a volatile oil price, and these have clearly made the control of inflation more difficult over the last two or three years. but if these global forces were solely to blame for higher inflation, they would be having a similar effect in other major economies. as chart 6 shows, the us and the euro area have seen lower and more stable inflation over the last couple of years, with inflation averaging around 1¾ % since the beginning of 2008. us inflation has recently been pushed up to over 2 % by higher petrol prices, but to a much lesser extent than in the uk. according to the labour force survey measure, unemployment peaked at 11. 9 % in mid - 1984 and 10. 6 % in early 1993. approximately two years after the start of the recession in both cases, unemployment was 10. 2 % at end - 1981 and 10. 4 % at end - 1992. in the april 2010 quarterly industrial trends survey, 62 % of manufacturers reported that they were working

attention.
on ’ stablecoins ’ ”, 5 december 2019. [ 9 ] see frost, j., gambacorta, l., huang y., shin, h. and zbinden, p. ( 2019 ), “ bigtech and the changing structure of financial intermediation ”, bis working papers, no 779, bank for international settlements, april. [ 10 ] see cœure, b. ( 2019 ), “ towards the retail payments of tomorrow : a european strategy ”, speech at the joint conference of the ecb and the national bank of belgium on “ crossing the chasm to the retail payments of tomorrow ”, brussels, 26 november. [ 11 ] ibid. european central bank directorate general communications sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 frankfurt am main, germany tel. : + 49 69 1344 7455, e - mail : media @ ecb. europa. eu website : www. ecb. europa. eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts related topics rules and procedures governance central banking international relations money risks disclaimer please note that related topic tags are currently available for speeches and introductory statements to the press conferences ( with q & a ) from 2018 - 19 only. copyright 2019, european central bank banking sector target instant payment settlem

j. n. ( 2020 ), “ corporate bond market dysfunction during covid - 19 and lessons from the fed ’ s response ”, hutchins center working papers, no 69, october. [ 16 ] cera, k. et al. ( 2020 ), “ the role of bank and non - bank interconnections in amplifying recent financial contagion ”, financial stability review, ecb, may. https : / / www. ecb. europa. eu / press / key / date / 2020 / html / ecb. sp201119 _ 1 ~ 4a1ff0daf9. en. html 6 / 7 20 / 11 / 2020 covid - 19 and the liquidity crisis of non - banks : lessons for the future [ 17 ] although lvnav funds guarantee constant prices under normal market conditions, they are designed to lose this characteristic and convert into a variable net asset value ( vnav ) fund if the price of the underlying assets changes by 20 basis points or more. the higher riskiness of the underlying assets was likely amplified by the risk of conversion into a vnav fund, as a number of lvnav funds were close to breaching the regulatory limits on net asset value during the recent period of volatility. investors may therefore have redeemed early during the recent stress episode and contributed to additional outflows and liquidity shortages in these funds. [ 18 ] de guindos, l. and schnabel, i. ( 2020 ), “ the ecb ’ s commercial paper purchases : a targeted response to the economic disturbances caused by covid - 19 ”, the ecb blog, 3 april. [ 19 ] swing pricing rules can discourage investors from selling shares in funds and can provide fund managers with additional time to adjust their portfolios, mitigating the risk of fire sales. there are mixed results in studies that assess the effectiveness of swing pricing. see, for example, lewrick, u. and schanz, j. f. ( 2017 ), “ is the price right? swing pricing and investor redemptions ”, bis working papers, no 664, october ; and jin, d. et al. ( 2019 ), “ swing pricing and fragility in open - end mutual funds ”, imf working papers, no 19 / 227, international monetary fund, november. [ 20 ] d ’ avernas, a., vande
threats, the so called big bad wolves. we remain mindful of the risks that could threaten the strength of the economy. risks to price stability. on top of our watchlist is any possible dislodgement of inflation expectations should strong second round effects ( transport fare adjustments and power rate hikes ) appear because of possible price pressures emanating from any short - term volatility in international oil prices on the back of geopolitical tensions. risks to financial stability. we are mindful of market behavior in reaction to the monetary policy divergence across major advanced economies – timing of us fed tightening and prospects of further easing by the ecb and boj. we are watchful of possible increased financial market volatility as market agents price / or mis - price risk based on their interpretation of the actions of authorities. there could be shifts from market complacency to panic. we are also closely monitoring household debt levels and corporate leverage and comparing these against bank lending standards. risks to growth outlook. we monitor growth developments in our trading partners – us, japan, china. in our domestic radar screen, we are monitoring possible spikes in commodity prices, delays in infrastructure and reconstruction projects, natural disasters as well as logistics bottlenecks. keeping the house of bricks in order we cannot accurately predict when these bad wolves will attack … but we can build buffers. let me focus on three strategies to keep our house in order : investing for the future, enhancing our policy tools, and putting the synergy principle in action. investing for the future 1. the national government is committed to investment - led growth. the ng will ramp up infrastructure spending, from 2. 7 percent of gdp in 2013 to 5. 0 percent of gdp by 2016. higher allotment for infrastructure is doable now because we have sufficient fiscal space to do so. bis central bankers ’ speeches 2. the bsp, for its part, remains steadfast in maintaining price and financial stability to provide a macroeconomic environment supportive of investments. we will also continue to strengthen our regulatory framework for financial inclusion. 2 enhancing our policy tools 1. the bsp will continue to proactively use its enhanced tool set. we are well aware that the deployment of these tools is just as ( if not even more important ) than the tools themselves. you can therefore expect the bsp to balance timing and calibration of the use of its policy levers. this approach should have been evident in the recent series of

commitment regarding reporting of otc derivatives. i appreciate the hard work that has gone into it by the teams from ccil and financial markets department of rbi as well as the fimmda, fedai, pdai and market participants. thank you all for having achieved another milestone in making the indian financial system, transparent, safe and robust. bis central bankers ’ speeches
needs to happen, and if the arrc members, the official sector, and end users and other market participants all jointly coordinate in finalizing these plans, then a successful transition can be made with the least disruption to the market, leaving everyone in a better place. bis central bankers ’ speeches

jean - claude trichet : interview in the wall street journal interview with mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank, in the wall street journal, conducted by messrs brian blackstone and marcus walker on 19 january 2011. * * * wsj : if 2008 and 2009 were years of crisis, and 2010 was a year of stabilization and recovery. how do you see 2011? what should davos participants be focused on this year? trichet : since the start of the recovery, in the third quarter of 2009, the real economy has surprised up on the upside. this is encouraging. i see 2011 as a year of continuous hard work, to make the financial sector more resilient and to improve the soundness of fiscal policies. the crisis, which started in 2007 and intensified in september 2008 revealed the fragility of the financial sector first and then the relative vulnerability of public finances in the advanced economies. wsj : what worries you most? trichet : to consider that because we managed to avoid a depression and are now experiencing the recovery, we could lose momentum in the reforms that are still urgently needed. that is the main danger. wsj : this year austerity becomes pan - european. but a recent united nations report said austerity risks a renewed economic downturn. do you agree? trichet : no, we do not. i do not buy the very simple reasoning that would suggest that pursuing sounder fiscal policy would hamper growth. on the contrary, i think that appropriate fiscal retrenchment in countries that need it is part of growth enhancement, because sustainable public finances makes a difference in terms of improving confidence of households, enterprises, investors and savers, which is decisive to foster growth and job creation. wsj : does the u. s. have it wrong? it is engaging in even more fiscal stimulus. trichet : it ’ s not for me to give a lecture to other advanced economies. we have our own responsibilities. in our own case we strongly believe that fiscal soundness is confidenceenhancing and therefore part of a growth - enhancing strategy. wsj : in your recent ecb press conference you made repeated references to the july 2008 rate hike and said the ecb is never pre - committed not to move interest rates. were your remarks over - interpreted as hawkish? trichet : i have nothing to add to what i have said last thursday ( ecb press conference on 13
you manage the euro transition smoothly and without any problems and that euro brings a positive change into in your lives.

narodna banka slovenska, imricha karvasa 1, 813 25 bratislava, slovak republic www. nbs. sk strategies, and they also changed how slovakia was perceived within the european union. as was noted today, the road to fulfilling the criteria was a little bit bumpy. slovakia had previously been on a floating exchange rate, so the major issues included the sustainability of the inflation criterion and the exchange rate pass - through to prices. but the discussions were frank and turned out successful. in terms of the technical issues and the technical changeover, the euro adoption was much less bumpy. i ’ m glad that although we took some its profits, the banking industry is very happy with the euro adoption. the same goes for the citizens and firms, and no major political party is explicitly against it, either. the euro adoption in slovakia is praised mainly for supporting exchange rate stability, ease of travel, and business. that is pleasing, because it has not been the case in each country that adopted the euro. several participants stressed that slovakia could be a role model for countries joining the euro in the future. it was good to hear this from distinguished international economists, and even better to hear it from a czech economist. now the question is how we should look at the euro per se. the euro is not a guarantee of prosperity, not something that automatically makes you richer once you adopt it. the common currency is not a blank cheque. it ’ s very important to bear in mind that there are good examples and bad examples. it is not set in stone whether you will prosper or struggle after entering the euro area. other policies are extremely important. when a country joins the euro area, it gives up the exchange rate as a demand stabilisation tool, so it should prepare other policies to fight against asymmetric shocks, including macroprudential, fiscal, labour market and other structural policies. today we saw a very lively discussion about the future of the common currency. i really liked the point that we should not see the euro as a blame game between european institutions and member states. everybody should understand that it ’ s kind a of a shared responsibility. we should try hard to figure out how to reform our governance framework in order to incentivise european institutions, as well as the member states themselves, to see the euro as a common concern. we talked a little bit about the potential next recession and crisis. we heard how the policy space
fiji. it is our job to ensure there is a competitive market that upholds the value of transparency and accountability and a level playing field for all. the active participation of women in the economy, as well as contributing to economic growth, is something that microfinance facilitates and something we can all be proud of. the onus is on each one of you present here today to work hand in hand to provide your families a means to better your standard of living. the time cannot be more opportune for those who bis central bankers ’ speeches are thinking of making a difference in their lives to be part of microfinance and the whole financial inclusion drive. ladies, please take this moment to reflect on the positive changes that microfinance has brought about in your family, community and the nation at large. you are doing something special, so i urge you to keep up the momentum. we all know that an economy is only as good as its individual units that encompass it. i have always believed that “ financial inclusion is not about giving handouts to anyone, it ’ s about helping the people to help themselves ”. once again, i thank mr. casagrande and mr. munoz for their kind invitation. i wish them and their team at spbd every success. i also would like to express my appreciation to spbd for continuing to contribute to the development of microfinance in fiji. may you continue to do so for many more years. to all you award nominees here today, i wish you the best and congratulate you on your achievements. in my mind, even if you miss out on a prize, you are all still winners. vinaka vakalevu. bis central bankers ’ speeches

we have with the banks. i would therefore also like to thank the representatives of the supervised institutions for the mutual trust we have built up together. i am thinking in particular of the risk directorates. in the vast majority of cases, we work in a calm and constructive manner, in the common interest of a more resilient european banking sector. this is an important asset. given the difficult challenges that lie ahead in the very near future, in europe and around the world, we will need more than ever to rely on these relationships of trust. it's now time for me to conclude. i would like to thank you for your attention, both on site and remotely, and to thank the various speakers for the quality of the debates and presentations. let us continue to work together to ensure that the ssm remains the world - class supervisor that we have built : an asset for a resilient and competitive 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches european banking sector, a token of confidence for european citizens and, last but not least, a support for our common currency and european integration as a whole. thank you all very much. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches
oct. jan. apr. jul. oct. jan. united states united kingdom source : datastream and jp morgan chase & co. ( a ) equity and property indices rebased to jan. 06 = 100. euro area jan. apr. jul. oct. feb. may. - 20 aug. source : bloomberg. ( a ) 3 - month libor spreads over 3 - month overnight index swap ( ois ) rates. ( b ) solid lines show 3 month historical data, with dotted lines derived from forwards. chart 5 : sub - prime mortgage losses chart 6 : monoline cds prices ( a ) us $ billions default losses to date ( a ) projected losses ( cashflow method ) projected writedowns losses to date ( market prices ) ( b ) sources : bloomberg, banks'financial statements and bank calculations. ( a ) estimated default losses to date on subprime securities based on cumulative delinquency rates. ( b ) net of hedging. • • sources : bank of england, barclays capital, goldman sachs, imf and moodys. ( a ) average of bid and offer premia of five - year senior debt cds contracts. chart 7 : key strands of fsf work supervisory framework and oversight − capital arrangements − liquidity buffers − risk management practices − off balance sheet activities underpinnings of the originate and distribute model • uses and role of credit ratings • market transparency • supervisory and regulatory responsiveness to risks • authorities ’ ability to respond to crises

. and the final area is leaning against the credit cycle when it threatens stability. the zeitgeist embraced the seductive idea that either there wasn ’ t a bubble or if there was a bubble that there was nothing you could do about it. which was dangerous nonsense, as events have proved. this is not about fine tuning the credit cycle. but we do need to be prepared to take the punchbowl away before the party gets completely out of control. that was the view 50 years ago. forward to the past. this will have a national dimension to it, a regional dimension in europe through the eu ’ s new systemic risk board, but it will also have a global dimension too. the extent of co - operation between nations will have to intensify in this area. in the monetary policy area, it is important that we listen to each other and understand each other but in a world of floating exchange rates we can, on the whole, go back to our countries and make our own decisions. in the financial stability area, i won ’ t say we have to co - ordinate with a capital “ c ” but we are going to have to move from listening to each other towards co - operation. that will be healthy, but not easy. and it might entail rethinking the division of labour between host and home prudential regulation. these areas of shadow banking and a macroprudential approach to supervision and regulation lie ahead for the fsb agenda and for the g20 agenda. they will sustain important parts of the reform programme into next year and beyond.
mario draghi : trade, competitiveness and europe opening remarks by mr mario draghi, governor of the bank of italy and chairman of the financial stability board, at the 2nd efige ( european firms in the global economy ) scientific workshop and policy conference, rome, 18 june 2010. * * * it is a honour and a pleasure for the bank of italy to host the second efige scientific workshop and policy conference. efige stands for “ european firms in the global economy : internal policies for external competitiveness ”, and no topic could be more relevant for the policy debate today : we are in the aftermath of a global recession that may have redesigned the comparative advantages of nations ; that is challenging the capacity of most european economies to maintain competitiveness. foreign trade has been one of the main channels of contagion in the global crisis since 2008. the case of italy is emblematic. despite a financial structure with many strong points, from the stability of the banking system to the financial health of households and firms, italy suffered greatly the international crisis. in 2009 italy ’ s gdp contracted by 5 per cent, more than the whole euro area, more than in any other time since world war ii. despite some recovery since the second half of 2009, industrial production is still one fifth below the cyclical peak recorded in the spring of 2008. the survey of italian firms that the bank of italy conducts every year has allowed us to unveil the mechanisms through which the crisis propagated within the productive system. the large and sudden fall of demand in international markets led exporting firms to sharply cut back production, investment and purchases. these direct cutbacks have spread over through the supply chain : larger firms could offload a good part of the non - diversifiable risk due to the fall in demand on small suppliers. this effect was possibly amplified by relocations and re - internalizations of some production activities. hence the crisis also hit firms less open to foreign trade. more broadly, the increasingly widespread international supply chains have contributed to the universal reach of the crisis, compounding the effects of distressed financial markets. it has been a big shock. looking ahead, the point is now to understand to what extent trade flows and the geographical patterns of global production networks have been reshaped by the crisis. how has the position of individual firms and countries changed? what can the impact be of the necessary unwinding of global imbalances in the years to come? in 2008 and 2009

budgetary discipline, but what we need above all is progress on structural reforms in order to enhance growth potential, within a renewed european pact. that should be our ambition.