total number of poor people is still a problem. if the fruits of globalisation do not continue to spread to more countries with a poor population and within countries, there is also a risk of more states collapsing or other political problems that could slow down growth in the poor countries, and also have negative consequences for the rest of the world. the growing discrepancy between different regions is therefore worrying. this was clearly illustrated during the 1990s, when growth in asia averaged 7 per cent, while the figures for latin america and africa south of the sahara were 3. 4 per cent and 2. 3 per cent respectively. there is a huge contrast between, for instance, china, which has succeeded in lifting around 400 million people out of extreme poverty over the past twenty years, and africa south of the sahara, where the number of poor people increased by 150 million during the same period. in addition to weak states and internal conflicts, the african continent is hard hit by hiv / aids, which in some countries has reduced the average length of life from 55 years in 1990 to below 40 years in 2002, and left many children and young people to their own devices, without any adult authority. one of the most important challenges in future is thus to try to integrate africa into the global economy to a greater extent. here, both the african countries themselves and we in the industrialised world can make important contributions. some historical reflections on globalisation and technological changes despite all the talk of the “ new ” global economy, the present international economic integration is actually no new phenomenon. during the fifty years prior to the first world war, there was considerable cross - border mobility for both goods and capital. then, as now, the increased globalisation was driven by trade liberalisation and major technological advances, thanks to the development of railways, steam engines and electricity. in some respects the integration was even more extensive at the beginning of the 20th century than it is today. for instance, foreign direct investment was a much greater percentage of gdp, labour was much more mobile across national borders and even agriculture was more liberalised. however, in other respects it can reasonably be claimed that the world economy is more interlaced now than it was a hundred years ago. the first difference is that a much larger percentage of the countries in the world now participate in the global economy, after opening up their borders to trade and investment and adopting liberal market reforms. another aspect that should be highlighted is that although the net flows of international capital are lower

economic upswing to ensure that the inflation target is attained and that economic developments in the period ahead are stable. it is also what most forecasters appear to be expecting. however, it is worth emphasising that it is not possible at present to determine exactly when it may be appropriate to make a first adjustment of the interest rate level. this will depend as usual on how the riksbank assesses the inflation outlook and on the new information received regarding economic developments. thank you. 1. averages for the periods 1970 - 1989 and 1995 - 2003 1970 - 1989 1995 - 2003 inflation gdp growth real wage increase, whole economy change in productivity, whole economy source : statistics sweden 2. proportion of open unemployed members in different unemployment benefit funds per cent of members hotel and restaurant workers building workers commercial employees industrial workers transport workers seko htf sif m unicipal workers local government officers graduates teachers government officers note. htf = the salaried employees ’ union. sif = the swedish union of clerical and technical employees in industry. seko = the union of service and communication employees. the building workers ’ funds consist of the building union ’ s and the swedish painters ’ union ’ s unemployment benefit funds. the industrial workers ’ funds consist of the unemployment benefit funds of the swedish metal workers ’ union, the swedish forest and wood trade union, the swedish food workers ’ union, the swedish paper workers ’ union, the swedish graphic workers ’ union and the industrial workers ’ union. the number of members in the unemployment benefit funds included in the chart comprised in 2003 around 88 per cent of the total number of unemployment benefit fund members in sweden. source : national labour market board. 3. different measures of inflation annual percentage change cpi und1x - 1 - 1 source : statistics sweden 4. different agents ’ expectations of inflation two years ahead per cent purchasing managers labour market organisations - 1 m oney market agents - 1 source : prospera