ahead even if interest rates remain at their current low level. 13 af jochnick ( 2015 ) described why income was expected to be negative. 14 the riksbank has communicated that the interval of 3. 5 – 4. 5 per cent is a reasonable assumption for the level of the long - term normal repo rate ( sveriges riksbank, 2010 ). there is a great deal to suggest, however, that the normal level of interest rates has fallen ( see, for instance, armelius et al., 2014, and holston, laubach and williams, 2016 ). for example, members of the us central bank ’ s monetary policy committee, the fomc, have recently lowered their assessment of the level of the long - term us policy rate from just over 4 per cent to just under 3 per cent. 7 chart 5. yield in accordance with the forward curve but funding at the repo rate per cent repo rate forward curve - 1 - 1 note. projection of the repo rate extended from the forecast in the monetary policy report in oc tober 2016. the forward curve is estimated on 26 october 2016. source : the riksbank changed interest rate environment directly impacts the riksbank ’ s profit and dividend up to now, the bond purchases have thus been profitable for the riksbank. there are, however, good reasons to anticipate counteracting losses in the period ahead, but it is still unclear what the total effects on the riksbank ’ s financial position will be. the effects depend, of course, on how the interest rate develops in the long term. what is clear, however, is that the interest rate risk on our balance sheet has increased substantially. the interest rate risk will also be reflected in major fluctuations in the riksbank ’ s profit and its dividends to the government. this is due to the practice of market valuation of the assets on the riksbank ’ s balance sheet. 15 i mentioned earlier that the forecast for the dividend - qualifying income for 2015 and 2016 has been transformed from a loss of sek 14 billion into a profit of sek 13 billion over the last year or so. a major part of this improvement can be explained by the increase in the market value of the bond portfolio due to interest rates being lower than expected. a back - of - the - envelope calculation shows how interest rate changes now have a considerable impact on the riksbank ’ s

the ecb has also announced a new support programme, outright monetary transactions ( omt ) which enables unlimited purchases of government bonds in countries that apply for emergency loans and thus accept the conditions for such loans. in the monetary policy report published in july 2012, the riksbank ’ s assessment was that the long - run sustainable unemployment rate is in the interval 5 – 7. 5 per cent. the mid - point of the estimated interval is thus 6. 25 per cent. there are also other estimates of the long - run sustainable unemployment rate. in the latest issue of its report “ wage formation in sweden ”, the national institute of economic research assesses this rate to be around 7 per cent at present, but that it will fall to around 6 per cent in the years immediately ahead ( see wage formation in sweden 2012, national institute of economic research ). according to a calculation by lars svensson of how the deviation between the actual inflation rate and the inflation target affects unemployment, the mid - point of the riksbank ’ s estimated interval is at 5. 5 per cent ( see “ correction of the riksbank ’ s estimate of the long - run sustainable unemployment rate ”, appendix 2, minutes of the monetary policy meeting, july 2012 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches have levelled out. this differs from the situation in norway where prices continue to increase, and in denmark, where there has been a significant fall in prices. figure 8. real house prices index, 1995 = 100 norway finland denmark sweden sources : statistics sweden and national sources. figure 9. household wealth and debt per cent of disposable income financial wealth ( excluding tenant - owned apartments and collective insurance schemes ) real wealth debt note. the broken line is the riksbank ’ s latest forecast ( from the monetary policy report, february 2013 ). sources : statistics sweden and the riksbank. bis central bankers ’ speeches developments on the swedish housing market thus appear to be much calmer now than before the financial crisis. however, it is of course important to constantly analyse whether developments can pose risks to financial or macroeconomic stability. the development of household indebtedness could lead to problems if housing prices began to fall for some reason or if unemployment began to increase sharply in connection with a downturn. in order to assess to what extent this constitutes a risk we need to analyse the risk of a fall in housing prices and the extent to which the level of debt makes the households vulnerable. in