and others have also been withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. central banks are expected to further tighten monetary policy substantially over the next 6 months. global economic growth in 2023 is likely to be slower. tighter financial conditions, coupled with a squeeze in real incomes as a result of rising prices, will exert a drag on growth. it is difficult to forecast the extent of the growth slowdown next year given the complex interplay of multiple factors. it may be more instructive to think of possible scenarios. a good scenario would be what policymakers and analysts call a “ soft landing ”, where growth slows down sufficiently to reduce inflation but the economy avoids recession. given how high inflation has climbed and the degree of monetary policy tightening that may be necessary to bring inflation down, the pathway to achieve such a scenario is quite narrow. a more likely variant of a good scenario is a mild, short - lived technical recession that tames inflation and sets the stage for a sustained recovery in growth. a bad scenario is a deeper recession in some of the major economies even as inflation is brought down : a so - called “ hard landing ”. such a scenario could occur if monetary policy tightening precipitates sharp dislocations in financial markets. in many countries, financial vulnerabilities have increased due to a run - up in private sector debt during the last ten years of highly accommodative monetary policies. overvalued assets and high debt could magnify any growth slowdown. an ugly scenario would be one where growth stagnates while inflation remains high – stagflation. this could happen if fresh supply shocks or disruptions further boost inflation while monetary policy tightening sharply reduces economic activity. stagflations are rare but when they occur, they present difficult policy dilemmas for governments and central banks. economic growth in singapore is expected to moderate further in 2023 in tandem with the slowdown in our major trading partners. the extent of the growth moderation will depend in part on how the scenarios for the global economy will pan out. as of now, we expect neither a recession nor a stagflation in singapore next year. but there are considerable downside risks in the global economy which bear close watching. multi - pronged approach to inflation dealing effectively with inflation requires a multi - pronged approach. monetary policy to directly dampen inflation fiscal support to help vulnerable groups cope with inflation sound labour market adjustments to prevent inflation becoming entrenched first, monetary

implemented this framework in january 2015 with a one year transition period for the industry to be familiar with the framework before the requirements are legislated in january 2016. 13. while many financial advisors do their work professionally, it is also a reality that compensation system can shape sales behaviours, and sales - based remuneration models may not always align the interests of financial advisers with the consumers. 14. under the bsc framework, a major proportion of a representative ’ s remuneration will be based on whether the representative has acted professionally such as consumer needs analyses, recommendation of suitable products, and adequate disclosures. this bsc initiative will help to align the interests of financial advisers with their customers. over the longer term, the bsc framework will boost consumer confidence in the professionalism of the financial advisory industry. strengthening the resilience of the life insurance industry : rbc2 15. let me now turn to the new risk - based capital framework or rbc2. why the move from rbc to rbc2? 16. insurance regulators around the world are adopting risk - based capital and singapore has been a frontrunner with our current insurance risk - based capital ( rbc ) framework introduced in 2004. this risk framework has served us well, and our insurers have navigated largely unscathed through recent financial crises ; while the framework allowed for regulatory bis central bankers ’ speeches intervention in a timely and effective manner. now, i know this begs the question – if it isn ’ t broken, why fix it? 17. the answer is that the operating environment for global finance including insurance, has and will become increasingly complex given the more connected global markets, the vulnerability of contagion, an overall low interest rate environment that pushes investors including insurers to target more risky higher - yielding products and potential new risk areas such as in some emerging markets or in technology risks. 18. it is important that our insurance capital framework remains relevant and effective and that insurers operating in singapore are well - capitalised to weather different crises and risk forms. 19. at the global level, the international association of insurance supervisors ( iais ) has also embarked on the development of capital standards for internationally active insurance groups ( “ iaigs ” ) ; while the international accounting standards board is expected to finalise its guidance on insurance contracts under ifrs4 sometime this year. progress on rbc2 20. last year, mas published our second consultation paper, which outlined our key proposals for rbc