to very pressing issues of global trade, namely sanctions and supply bottlenecks. two papers use the embargo after the first russian invasion of ukraine in 2014 to study how firms in france and latvia adjusted to the shock. the third paper examines how supply bottlenecks due to covid19 affected the performance of global value chains. this type of research is extremely important now, as we try to adjust to the multiple shocks europe and the world have suffered over the past three years. while the dampening effects of globalization on low inflation in the pre - covid era were overall deemed modest, the undoing of globalization, alongside the green transition, may well imply rapid and large level effects on the price level. as such, how we adapt to such persistent trade shocks is clearly of high value to central banks. 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches - two more sessions look at macro issues of high policy relevance. one is the session on dollar dominance. the dollar is now more important in terms of invoicing and reserves than it was at the end of breton woods, a paradox, given that this was a system designed to have the dollar at its core. the papers in the session look at the determinants and effects of dollar dominance, both now and in a historical perspective. in my opinion, the energy transformation of the us in the last several years from a large net energy importer into a net energy exporter, combined with the much higher energy prices worldwide, has played an important role in the recent dollar strength. this is an idea that is perhaps worth exploring, if you have not already done so. the other session looks jointly at fiscal and emu governance issues, issues that unfortunately are with us again. this session is anchored by the second keynote by elias papaioannou, who will talk about " international unions and international integration ". elias is a distinguished academic, but in fact he did start his career at the ecb, and so he is, so to speak, a member of our family. - finally, while this edition of the workshop is especially affected by fast - moving policy problems, we should never forget structural issues. after all, structural issues were our main focus for years before the pandemic hit, and issues like the labour market effects of automation or low productivity growth may well keep us busy even after the war has ended and inflation is at bay. as such, the workshop also contains one session dedicated to labour markets, and another dedicated

tobin said that we know little about predicting inflation. that remains true today. in a world prone to supply disruptions and susceptible to political uncertainties, monetary policy can only try to buffer the effects of external shocks on the real economy and on inflation. the past two years have seen an escalation of violence, with russia's unjustified war against ukraine and the unfolding of the middle east crisis last autumn. 2024 is a year of increased electoral activity. there are five months to go to us elections, the outcome of which could alter the course of the global economy. nationalist parties made major gains across the euro area in the european parliament elections, challenging leaders in germany but also france, where snap elections have been called. monetary policy has navigated in the turbulent waters of heightened uncertainty in the past several years. it will continue to navigate in those turbulent waters in the period ahead. 4. climate change challenges at the ecb we have a very clear mandate, which is enshrined in the treaty and has a focus on price stability. we also have an important role to play in addressing the challenge of climate change, always within the limits of our mandate. physical and transition risks can threaten price stability, but also become a source of instability and vulnerability for the financial system, thereby also affecting the transmission of monetary policy. at the same time, in addition to the risks created by climate change, adapting to climate change can bring opportunities, as required investment will bring new, 4 / 7 bis - central bankers'speeches more efficient and more sustainable forms of development, towards a more resilient and green economy. the financing of these investments is also an opportunity for the financial system and the more efficient use of the savings of european citizens. at the ecb we have different sets of actions, from risk management to better macroeconomic modelling and to including climate change risks and mitigation measures in many aspects of our work. 5. policy challenges related to recent political developments monetary policy has a single anchor in price stability, and that anchor is immune to political influence. as an independent institution, the ecb will continue to conduct its monetary policy to attain its price stability objective. the ecb has earned its credibility by focusing on this objective, and not being diverted by political pressures. it will continue to be led by its mandate in the future. the economic agenda of some of political parties is disconcerting, because it includes such policies as increased protectionism and highly expansionary fiscal