and electronic media must have had some dampening effect on expectations, as some surveys have suggested. it would not be surprising if the household sector had become more sensitive to news about interest rates, given the increased debt and debt servicing loads that it is now carrying. to cut a long story short, the next set of producer and consumer price inflation data that we received was more reassuring. true, it was only one quarter's information and that was not enough to change our numerical forecast of inflation, but it did lead us to conclude in our may statement on monetary policy that there was no longer an upward risk to our inflation forecast. the subsequent set of data confirmed a similar picture. with two quarterly sets of more reassuring price data now behind us, we were able in our recently released august statement on monetary policy to conclude that the cpi increase will peak at 3 per cent per annum in the second half of next year. as was widely noticed, we also refrained from making the point we have been making for the past year or so about it'being unlikely that there would be no further rises in the course of the expansion '. that does not mean that further rises could not happen ; it only means that in our present estimation there is no longer a more than 50 per cent possibility of it happening. this is a pretty comfortable position in which to be. we are not expecting to change monetary policy in the near term, and when we look further into the future we no longer see a clear probability of it moving in one direction rather than the other. importantly, this is also the collective view of the market, as shown by the yield curve and by economists'forecasts. of course, individuals do not all share this view, but on average that is the collective forecast. i do not intend to say any more about the economy or monetary policy at this stage, but, of course, am happy to answer any questions that you have on these subjects. i am also happy to answer any questions on the other important area of the bank's responsibilities, namely financial system stability. within that general area, the subject that has attracted the most recent attention has been the regulation of the retail payments system by the bank's payments system board. i know that committee members have met with the various industry participants, including members of the bank's payments policy department, to discuss the main issues, and, of course, i would be happy to address any questions members have on that subject.

digital money and infrastructure could increase the efficiency and resilience of wholesale markets where money and assets are tokenised. broader financial stability risks 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches before i turn the floor open to questions, it would be remiss not to briefly mention that our focus on financial stability extends beyond the areas of payments and market infrastructure. as i discussed last year, and as set out by recent editions of the financial stability review, we see risks to financial stability as taking two broad forms. 5 traditional cyclical risks generated from within the financial system these include the effects of higher interest rates or an economic downturn on the resilience of households, firms and banks. these types of risks have long featured in our surveillance work and will continue to do so. non - cyclical risks generated from outside the financial system these have become more prominent in recent times and there is generally little historical precedent to guide us in navigating them. foremost here are geopolitical risks, operational risks ( including but not limited to cyber risks ) and the risks associated with climate change. our assessment is that this second category of risks continue to build in troubling ways. they not only have the potential to be systemic, but could also cut across the financial system, economy and society in complex ways. for these reasons, the rba and other member agencies comprising the council of financial regulators are stepping up the intensity of work in these areas. at the same time, the worsening threat landscape – which is more structural than cyclical in nature – requires industry to actively prepare for a much more challenging operating environment in the years ahead. thank you. 1 rba ( 2024 ),'payments system board 2024 annual report '. 2 rba ( 2024 ),'merchant card payment costs and surcharging ', issues paper, 15 october. 3 rba and australian treasury ( 2024 ),'central bank digital currency and the future of digital money in australia ', september. 4 jones b ( 2024 ),'financial innovation and the future of cbdc in australia ', speech at the intersekt conference, melbourne, 18 september. 5 see, for instance, rba ( 2024 ),'financial stability review ', september ; jones b ( 2023 ),'emerging threats to financial stability – new challenges for the next decade ', sydney, 31 october. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches