growth threshold of 50 points. growth in the us, especially, is very robust and, on this side of the atlantic, the uk has exceeded expectations ( blue ring ). particularly important for switzerland were the surprisingly favourable economic indicators in europe this summer. in the second quarter of 2013, the euro area reported positive growth for the first time in six quarters. there are encouraging signs from the peripheral economies, especially. since mid - year, for instance, these countries have again been recording surpluses on their current accounts. nevertheless, these signs must be put into perspective. the improvement in the peripheral economies is beginning from a very low base level and the unemployment figures are oppressive. the banking system is very fragmented and unhealthy bank balance sheets give rise to declining levels of lending. this hampers the monetary policy transmission mechanism. in addition, there are sustained high levels of public and private debt. all of these factors are likely to hold back economic developments in the peripheral economies for some time yet. moreover, the euro area remains extremely heterogeneous. chart 8 shows the level of real gross domestic product ( gdp ) in the euro area and its largest members, as well as for switzerland. in italy and spain, gdp is just under 10 % below the maximum pre - crisis level, while in germany it has been above the precrisis figure since 2011. given the subdued developments in the euro area, it is surprising how well the swiss economy has performed. in switzerland, gdp is already almost 5 % above the pre - crisis level. however, it should be borne in mind that, over the past few years, economic growth has been extensively supported by the increase in the population. in terms of gdp per capita, switzerland has not yet quite returned to the pre - crisis figure, unlike germany, for instance, where per - capita gdp is now almost 3 % above the pre - crisis level. the growth driver in switzerland has thus been the domestic economy, while the contribution provided by foreign trade has been relatively modest. there are substantial differences from one industry to another. in general, the services industries are growing and business remains very lively in construction. in manufacturing, by contrast, which is traditionally cyclical and export - oriented, developments have been less advantageous, and equipment investment has also suffered in switzerland. the output gap remains negative, so that there is no pressure on wages and prices in the foreseeable future. the outlook is favourable, since we expect that the gradual recovery of

it is transparent and credible. in the case of the snb, the inflation forecast provides implicit information about the expected interest rate path. at present, however, the minimum exchange rate against the euro is also in place. with short - term interest rates close to zero, the minimum exchange rate makes it possible, for the foreseeable future, to ensure monetary conditions that are appropriate for the swiss economy. irrespective of any kind of forward guidance, international monetary policy is extremely expansionary. this has had a stabilising effect on international financial markets, as reflected bis central bankers ’ speeches by the situation in spring, when long - term interest rates sank to a historically low level and risk markets benefited from strong capital inflows. various stock indices recorded new historical highs and risk premia for corporate bonds have steadily narrowed. this positive sentiment was also reflected in volatility measures which had returned to the levels prevailing before the financial crisis. first attempt to normalise monetary policy in the us together with a revival of the economy in the us, this favourable environment resulted in the federal reserve making a first attempt to initiate the process of normalising monetary policy. on 22 may 2013, the chairman of the federal reserve, ben bernanke, first mentioned the possibility that the ongoing third quantitative easing programme might be tapered off. the possibility that the federal reserve might announce a reduction in the monthly bond purchase programme sparked an increase in long - term us interest rates, which had risen by over 100 basis points by the beginning of september ( cf. chart 4 ). all other major markets reacted in the same way – this included interest rates in germany – despite the fact that the course of monetary policy in the euro area actually pointed to sustained expansion. the tapering debate coincided with a more favourable economic outlook in the advanced economies. this, in turn, increased uncertainty with regard to the future monetary policy path of the major central banks, and term premia – which form part of bond yields – rose. however, at the same time, short - term interest rates stayed firmly in place. despite the recent increase, bond yields in advanced economies are at a very low level in historical terms. the impact on foreign exchange markets varied. the currencies of the emerging economies reacted particularly strongly, with capital outflows exerting very substantial downward pressure, as can be seen in chart 4. this shows that a number of emerging economies are still vulnerable to foreign portfolio investments, or hot money flows.