u. s. newspapers ( including the nation ’ s premier paper, the dallas morning news ) ; ( 2 ) a weighted count of tax - code provisions that are scheduled to expire ; and ( 3 ) the extent to which professional forecasters disagree with one another about future levels of inflation and government purchases. the baker - bloom - davis index begins in january 1985 and runs through the present. high values of the index signal an elevated level of economic policy uncertainty. from 1985 through 2007 – prior to the 2008 – 09 recession – the index has a mean of 94, and it exceeds 150 only 2 percent of the time ( one month in 50 ; just six times in over 23 years ). the index rose to above - average levels in the fall of 2007 and stayed at or above 94 – but below 150 – through the summer of 2008. then, between august and september 2008, the index nearly doubled, rising from 96 to 188. since september 2008, the index has at no time dropped below 100, and it has exceeded 150 on 31 occasions – more than half the time. it has soared above 200 twice : for two months in 2011, coincident with that year ’ s debt - ceiling debate, and in december 2012, when a compromise implementation of sequestration was being hammered out. it ’ ll be interesting to see what happens with the index in the wake of the past week ’ s developments ( or lack thereof ) in washington. the point is that starting with the collapse of lehman brothers in september 2008, economic policy uncertainty has been consistently high, and half the time it has been extraordinarily high. it ’ s difficult to prove “ beyond a reasonable doubt ” that this elevated uncertainty is causally related to the weak recovery we ’ ve experienced. but the hypothesis is surely sensible, the timing is certainly auspicious, and enough careful confirming analysis has been done to say that the preponderance of evidence favors the proposition that not just recent policy decisions, but also the manner in which those decisions were arrived at, have been a significant hindrance to economic expansion. the kinky stuff : monetary policy as to monetary policy, i would submit there are several links between monetary policy and economic uncertainty. first, though, some background. ordinarily, monetary policy works by influencing the current and expected near - term levels of short - term interest rates. once short - term interest rates hit zero, however, the fed turned to unconventional policies. by using massive purchases of

to report the bank's decision. meanwhile, the bank releases the guideline for money market operations simultaneously in english and japanese via its internet web site. thus, almost instantaneously, people around the globe can know the bank's decision. when there is a policy change, the governor, as the chairman of the policy board, holds a press conference about an hour after the mpm to explain the changes carefully to the public. even when there is no policy change, the governor holds a monthly press conference two business days after the first mpm of the month. the japanese and the english version of " the bank's view " of the monthly report of recent economic and financial developments and the japanese version of " the background " are released on the next business day after the approval of " the bank's view " at the first mpm of the month. the english version of " the background " is released on the next business day following the release of " the bank's view. " the minutes of the mpms are approved at the mpm held around one month after the meeting concerned and released after approval. transcripts of mpms are published ten years after the meetings concerned. i. publication of the outlook and risk assessment of the economy and prices ( the outlook report ) now i would like to talk about the outlook report, which is a report on the outlook for the economy and prices for the period twelve to 18 months ahead. the outlook report is released after it is discussed at the second mpm in april and october. in the report, the standard scenario for japan's economy and the risk factors that might cause a revision to the standard scenario are explained, and the policy board members'forecast of changes in price indexes and real gdp growth rate is included as a reference. at mpms thereafter, the standard scenario and risk factors in the report are discussed from the longer - term perspective. in short, the report provides a common basis for the members'discussions on the state of the economy. concluding remarks i have attended nearly 90 mpms during my term of office as deputy governor of the bank of japan, the post i was appointed to about the same time the new bank of japan law of 1997 came into effect. as a member of the policy board, i have taken part in important decision - making concerning monetary policy, such as changing the level of the target of the policy interest rate and implementing quantitative easing measures unprecedented in the history of central banks. when