samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
. investment activity remains lively. the banking sector is faced with the uncertainties that have arisen out of the developments in the us real estate market together with the structured products that relate to this market. it is possible that the contribution of the swiss financial sector to gdp growth will fall as early as the fourth quarter of this year, due to a drop in the volume of activity on financial markets. other factors could also have an impact during the course of 2008, for instance, via a decline in the total wage bill paid by the sector. against this backdrop, swiss gdp growth is likely to settle at around 2 % in 2008. this easing - off should allow for a reduction in the level of capacity utilisation. in a moment i will outline the risks attached to our baseline scenario. developments in monetary and financial conditions since the onset of the sub - prime credit crisis in august, yields on long - term swiss confederation bonds have remained almost unchanged. for 10 - year maturities, the rate has fluctuated around 3 %. for shorter maturity bonds, however, the search for quality investments has resulted in a drop in rates. yields on two - year maturities, for instance, have fallen from 3. 0 % to 2. 0 %. however, this decline has been partly offset or even fully neutralised by an increase in risk premiums, in particular in the case of issuers with poor ratings. since september, the depreciation in the us dollar has accelerated. the swiss franc has also strengthened a little against the euro, although the movements were more volatile in nature. monetary and financial conditions can also be analysed in terms of volumes. special attention should be given to commercial lending, since a shortage of credit in the current circumstances would be equivalent to a tightening in monetary conditions. however, no effect of this kind can be identified in switzerland, not even in the most recent statistics. on the contrary, trends that have been observed over a period of several years continue to hold. the gradual slowdown in the growth of mortgage loans, whose rate of increase is now below 4 %, is persisting. the growth in other lending is still picking up pace, confirming the momentum of the business cycle. these loans are now growing at a rate of 16 %, which is faster than in the boom period of 1999 and 2000. at this rate, the level attained during that previous boom will soon be reached again. the behaviour of the monetary aggregates might appear to contradict

. 23 1. 33 1. 22 0. 46 0. 09 0. 52 0. 63 inflation forecast of september 2007 with libor at 2. 75 % and of december 2007 with libor at 2. 75 % q1 forecast september 2007, libor at 2. 75 % forecast december 2007, libor at 2. 75 % q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 0. 66 1. 20 1. 50 1. 38 1. 57 1. 69 1. 75 1. 80 1. 85 1. 91 1. 96 2. 00 1. 62 2. 14 1. 54 1. 56 1. 51 1. 47 1. 46 1. 46 1. 48 1. 51 1. 53 1. 55
which is why adequate training to carry out the validation of models and capital adequacy assessments will be of fundamental significance. supervisors still have a lot of work to be done in order to implement basel ii. we understand that it is important to disclose, as soon as possible, an overview of our implementation plans to the industry while we internally make all the studies necessary to support the numerous decisions to be made. the next steps include, for example, the evaluation of simpler alternatives for smaller institutions ( non - bank and small banking institutions, the definition and disclosure of aspects of national discretion, the definition of eligibility criteria for irb, and, finally, the release of an “ advanced regulation notice ” - open to public / industry comments, and a country quantitative impact study considering revised aspects of national discretion.

severe losses require capital injections, while some countries have to boost domestic demand to compensate for too much dependency on exports. the important point here is to draw a clear difference between fiscal stimulus, liquidity management and monetary policy. the difference between liquidity management and monetary policy is not clear for many observers nowadays, but it is nonetheless fundamental. in moments of market disfuntionality, for instance, monetary easing sometimes does not work. it is important to mention that in some circumstances liquidity management is the critical issue. of course, we should not forget the need for price stability in order to have the basis to restore growth. in this regard and despite recent criticism, inflation targeting continues to be the most appropriate monetary regime to coordinate inflation expectations in both mature and emerging economies, not only providing transparency but also taking due consideration of time lags and uncertainties in the process of monetary policy implementation. in fact, the combination of short - term flexibility with the permanent commitment to price stability embedded in the framework makes it particularly suitable to the current environment. while disinflation will possibly be fast in mature economies, creating adequate conditions for monetary counter - cyclical actions in different countries, in emerging economies disinflation will probably be slower, particularly where the authorities have not prevented inflation from escalating recently, or where they did not retain a vigilant attitude. in any case, inflation targeting is the most suited framework to coordinate the public ’ s inflation expectations, particularly in an environment marked by growing uncertainty.
chaudron and r. de sousa van stralen. developing macroprudential policy for alternative investment funds, towards a framework for macroprudential leverage limits in europe : an application for the netherlands ; to be published in october 2017 13 see www. esrb. europa. eu / pub / pdf / reports / 20160718 _ strategy _ paper _ beyond _ banking. en. pdf, page 4 : “ to operationalise macroprudential instruments for which a legal basis has already been created, in particular by providing advice to the european securities and markets authority ( esma ) on the aifmd framework for leverage requirements. ” 14 “ margins and haircuts as a macroprudential tool ”, remarks by vitor constancio, vice - president of the ecb, at the esrb international conference on the macroprudential use of margins and haircuts, frankfurt am main, 6 june 2016. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches

this range of views, commenters also suggested a range of potential board actions – from no action to prohibiting trading or ownership of commodities associated with catastrophic risk, strengthening prudential safeguards ( such as reducing caps on the amount of permitted activities ), strengthening risk - management practices, enhancing public disclosure, requiring additional capital, increasing regulatory coordination, and developing risk - management best practices. the federal reserve has been reviewing the comments and considering what steps would be appropriate to address the risks posed by physical commodities activities. the board has discretion with regard to the complementary activities approved under section 4 ( k ). we are also considering whether additional restrictions are appropriate on bis central bankers ’ speeches merchant banking investments to ensure that the investments are truly passive. moreover, we are exploring measures such as additional capital requirements, enhanced riskmanagement requirements, and additional data collection and reporting requirements on physical commodities activities to help ensure that such activities do not pose undue risks to the safety and soundness of financial holding companies and their subsidiary depository institutions, or to financial stability. conclusion our review of the commodity - related activities of the firms we supervise is ongoing. we are assessing the potential risk of physical commodities activities to the safety and soundness of the financial holding companies engaged in these activities. in doing so, we are focusing on the risk to safety and soundness presented by specific activities and on whether those risks can be appropriately and adequately mitigated. in addition, we are conducting a careful and thorough assessment of the costs and benefits of financial holding company engagement in these activities. our work includes a complete assessment of the comments we received in response to the anpr. we expect to issue a formal notice of public rulemaking regarding these matters in the first quarter of next year. thank you for your attention. i would be pleased to answer any questions you might have. bis central bankers ’ speeches
convenience, safety, and well - being of the filipino people in mind. thank you and i wish everyone a fruitful conference. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches

, as well as capacity building and awareness programs of the bsp, we are seeing banks lean toward sustainable financing. finally, e is for excellence. excellence requires mastery and commitment in all aspects of professional practice. the very same tenet requires us, central bankers, to master our craft and continually improve our competencies. in the bsp, we capitalize on programs to attract, develop, and retain talent. we have relentlessly pursued excellence through competency trainings, scholarship programs, and mentoring arrangements. we also leverage on digital technologies and data analytics for decision making and continuing education of our employees. in the same way, the bsp endeavors to embed a culture of excellence and good governance among supervised financial institutions. cpas are a big part of this. cpas play an important role in promoting transparency in financial reporting and in reinforcing market discipline. thus, it is paramount to know the best practices in accounting and auditing, and the latest regulatory developments. 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches you must be abreast of the latest on philippine financial reporting standards, basel reforms, digital transformation, and sustainability, among other important topics. last july, members of the financial sector forum ( fsf ) — comprised of the bsp, the securities and exchange commission, the insurance commission, and the philippine deposit insurance corporation — entered into a memorandum of agreement with the professional regulatory board of accountancy on the establishment of a “ one - stop - shop ” framework for accreditation of external auditors. this goes to show how regulators value your role in the economy, and we expect all of you in picpa to be our partners in the pursuit of economic recovery and growth by consistently observing the highest level of professionalism. as cpas in your respective industries, being flexible in your action plans to surmount the current headwinds and work toward an inclusive, long - term growth will help you and your organization take full advantage of the possibilities awaiting at the close of this health crisis. rest assured, the bsp will always be a partner in pursuing advocacies that promote the development of the accountancy profession. we count on picpa and its members in helping safeguard the soundness of financial institutions and the financial system. again, congratulations on your 76th annual national convention and i wish everyone a productive discussion ahead. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches
with a downturn that is more protracted. investment has been a strong factor behind the upward phase in recent years and proponents of the u scenario consider the economy has been hit by excessive investment, so that an unduly large capital stock must now be adjusted. this adjustment is accentuating the economic slowdown, making this more difficult to counter than seemed likely earlier. it will take time — perhaps a long time — for the interest rate cuts to have an effect on demand from households and firms. moreover, the conditions for a quick recovery have been worsened by the imbalances that have accumulated in the economy. this scenario envisages that the u. s. labour market is still so overheated that if it prices fall while commodity prices rise, at the same time as a weaker dollar adds to the cost of imports, then inflation will move up even though growth is weak. the federal reserve might have more difficulty in handling this scenario because if inflation is threatening to rise, the interest rate would be less available for turning activity upwards. there is also the possibility of the promised tax cuts taking time to materialise, which would be liable to postpone a recovery. instead of the slowdown turning upwards after one or, at most, two quarters in the v scenario, this would take another two quarters or a total of about a year. the pessimistic scenario — the l then there are one or perhaps several pessimistic scenarios in which the imbalances in the u. s. economy undergo a painful correction that paralyses the economy or delays the recovery for a very long time. this path can be described as a capital l ; the economy loses speed and then fails to get going again, proceeding instead at a snail ’ s pace. one assumption behind scenarios of this kind is that measures of economic policy are not capable of reversing the trend. in the l scenario, the higher productivity growth is checked, corporate investment is cut back and consumer confidence is muted by falling share prices, thereby accentuating the downward path. in a negative spiral, share prices, investment and consumption all decline at the same time as worried investors abroad become averse to placing their funds in the u. s. economy. the problems are accentuated by the saving imbalances. when money ceases to flow into the united states, the dollar falls. the relatively limited size of foreign trade means that a correction of the massive current - account deficit takes time. the united states has

both ratios as minimum requirements in 2018, subject to a review period and proper calibration. i look forward to the outcome of the relevant work of the committee. third, governments that are lagging in their effort to consolidate debt and deficits should keep in mind that the current levels of yields cannot be taken for granted and that yield normalisation could take place in a differentiated way across jurisdictions, renewing the fragmentation of euro area capital markets. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches
expect the effects to eventually reverse as restrictions to movement and business activity are being relaxed. the macroeconomic policy action taken over the recent months, both at the national and the european level, will play an important role in reactivating demand once effective medication and vaccines against covid - 19 become available. however, the pandemic happened at a time when we had already experienced more than a decade of slowing expansion of global trade and global value chains. this trend was intensified by the financial crisis and by unresolved trade disputes. are we now just undergoing a reversal of unsustainable past globalization trends as certain underlying factors have run out of steam? or has the world economy indeed entered a phase of de - globalization? my personal view is that the covid - 19 crisis will reinforce a trend that has been observed for quite some time, but it is probably not a “ game changer. ” so far, we cannot speak of a shortening or even dismantling of global value chains. after all, the rather swift revival of global value chains following the easing of restrictions over the summer months has demonstrated their stability and their potential for supporting the recovery. but apart from empirically observable trends there is another issue : the covid - 19 crisis may have changed our views on how to position our economies within global value chains. after all, supply chains are complex network structures rather than chains, so that weaknesses in single, remote links may endanger the whole structure. future strategic decisions may be rather guided by safety and resilience considerations than purely be based on efficiency grounds. upstream bottlenecks should be identified and avoided by broadening the supplier base to improve resilience. supply chains will need to rely more on digitalization and automation to exploit real - time data to allow fast and flexible production and stock policies. dani rodrik wrote in april, “ crises come in two variants : those for which we could not have prepared, because no one had anticipated them, and those for which we should have been prepared, because they were in fact expected. covid - 19 is in the latter category. ” [ unquote ] shocks are diverse but happen with regularity. this crisis taught us a lesson, so let ’ s hope we learn from it to be better prepared when the next crisis hits. i now hand over to robert stehrer, scientific director at the vienna institute for international economic studies, who is going to chair the discussion and who will introduce pol antras.

pol is going to reflect on these questions in much more detail in this lecture. robert hausmann. 2020. transformation of global supply chains in the manufacturing industry as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. financial and economic review 19 ( 3 ). 130153. dani rodrik. 2020. will covid - 19 remake the world? project syndicate. april 6, 2020. page 2 von 2
for your attention. 1 based on gdp at market rates. 2 nordhaus, w. d. ( 2018 ) : speech delivered at the nobel banquet in stockholm, 10 december 2018. 3 blomgren, a. et al ( 2015 ) “ industribyggerne 2015 ”. iris report 2015 / 031 ( norwegian only ). 4 world bank “ ease of doing business index ”. data. worldbank. org / indicator / ic. bus. ease. xq 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches

key ecb interest rates were not being passed on to firms and households to the same extent in every euro area country. we were witnessing a serious disruption in the monetary policy transmission mechanism which, if left untended, would have posed a profound threat to price stability. the ecb responded with two sets of policies. first, central bank liquidity was made available to banks for up to three years, and the range of collateral that banks could use to access central bank money was expanded. this helped reduce fragmentation in banks ’ funding conditions. second, the ecb announced outright monetary transactions ( omts ) in the summer of 2012, which removed redenomination risk in government bond markets stemming from fears of a possible euro area break - up. 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches yet the sovereign debt crisis left a deep scar on the economy. unemployment rose steeply, firms cut back on investment and loan delinquencies increased. even though financial fragmentation was diminishing, banks began to shrink their balance sheets and became less willing to lend. this produced a renewed cycle of contracting credit growth and weak demand dynamics. inflation drifted downwards. with inflation now well below our objective, the ecb faced a new type of policy challenge. we needed not only to repair the transmission problems created by deleveraging banks. we also needed to expand our policy stance to counteract deflationary pressures. so in june 2014 we launched our targeted longer - term refinancing operations, which once more provided long - term liquidity to banks – but conditional on extending credit to the private sector. we introduced negative rates on excess reserves to further encourage banks to lend to households and businesses. and soon after, we announced our asset purchase programme ( app ), buying asset - backed securities and covered bonds. faced with a continued decline in inflation and a heightened risk of a de - anchoring of inflation expectations, in january 2015 we expanded the app to include public sector securities. since then, both the size and duration of our asset purchases have been recalibrated in response to changes in the inflation outlook. our asset purchases have also been complemented by further cuts in policy rates and the use of forward guidance. communicating our expectations about future policy, along with the conditions that would warrant a change in the policy stance, has successfully contributed to reducing uncertainty around the expected future path of short - term interest rates, thereby helping to preserve accommodative financial conditions. supported by these policy measures,
interest rates, we expect that some parts of the economy will be more sensitive to higher borrowing costs and will slow earlier or more sharply. the response will be somewhat uneven. some industries more than others will see fewer vacancies or even job losses. we ’ ll be looking beyond headline employment numbers to gauge how different groups in the labour market are adjusting. last year, we launched our new dashboard of indicators to help us assess the overall health of the labour market and where we are relative to maximum sustainable employment. 7 ( see the appendix ). labour supply that brings me to the second component of getting back to balance : labour supply. the labour market is also being — and will continue to be — profoundly affected by supply - side developments that are beyond the scope of monetary policy. that brings us back to one of the frequently asked questions : “ where are all the workers? ” the short answer is most of them are working and some have retired. we now have half a million more people employed than we did before covid - 19 hit. but an increase in retirements and less immigration early in the pandemic have reduced labour force growth. that ’ s another reason the labour market is so tight. these demographic shifts have played a big role in the supply of labour. in canada, as in many advanced economies, the age group that grew the fastest in recent years was those aged 65 and over. that ’ s not pandemic - related, it ’ s simply the aging of the baby boomers. those over 65 tend to have the lowest labour force participation rate, and that has been pulling down the growth of canada ’ s labour force in recent years. 8 immigration has typically helped canada ’ s labour force grow. but the pandemic disrupted immigration flows. borders closed, and canada fell short of its 2020 immigration target by about 156, 000 people, or an estimated 100, 000 workers. fortunately, immigration is bouncing back as border restrictions return to normal. canada met its immigration target of 401, 000 in 2021. and, based on the has largely reversed. for more details, see a. lam, “ canada ’ s beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market, ” bank of canada staff analytical note ( forthcoming ). 7 see t. macklem, “ our monetary policy framework : continuity, clarity and commitment ” ( speech delivered virtually to the empire club of canada, toronto, ontario, december 15, 2021 ). 8 health concerns related to the pan

growth and on the cost and availability of credit in canada. weighing the implications of these considerations, the bank views the risks to its projection for inflation as balanced. against this backdrop, the bank judges that the current level of the target for the overnight rate – 3 per cent – remains appropriate. we will continue to monitor carefully the evolution of risks, together with economic and financial developments in the canadian and global economies, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
by appropriate and timely actions. recent decisions by the governing council regarding both policy rates and liquidity provision show that we are ready to make the necessary decisions. many instruments remain available should further risks materialize. there should be no doubt that the eurosystem will ensure that price stability, as currently defined, will be maintained in the euro area. bis central bankers ’ speeches

##ance, to expand its reach, and to lift millions more of our countrymen from poverty to a better quality of life through microfinance. again, my congratulations to all our awardees, to citi and all those involved in this annual search for outstanding microentrepreneurs. mabuhay ang pilipinas! salamat po sa inyong lahat.