recently due mainly to the decrease in housing investment. the advance estimates of real gdp for the july - september quarter increased at an annual rate of 1. 6 percent on a quarter - on - quarter basis. business fixed investment has continued to increase against the background of high corporate profits, and the deceleration in the growth of private consumption has been moderate supported by the increase in household income and the drop in gasoline prices. therefore, the u. s. economy is likely to realize a soft landing and to move toward sustainable growth. however, it is important to continue to pay attention to the extent of adjustment in housing prices and whether this affects private consumption, as these factors could impact on production and exports in japanese industries, for example, in the it - related industry. upside risks should also be watched closely, such as the risk of inflation expectations rising in the u. s. economy, given that the rate of resource utilization is high. taking a look at the global economy as a whole, the chinese economy continues to expand strongly, and in the euro area, the momentum of economic recovery is becoming more evident. oil - producing countries, such as those in the middle east, continue to experience an economic boom. the global economy is likely to keep expanding even in the face of a modest slowdown in the u. s. economy, as expansion in other economies may be expected to offset it. the second factor is whether strong corporate performance will continue. corporate profits continue to be high as indicated in the semiannual book closings for the first half of fiscal 2006, and business fixed investment continues to increase. although machinery orders, a leading indicator of business fixed investment, declined substantially in the july - september quarter, this does not indicate a change in the underlying trend of business fixed investment, because the decline was partly a reaction to the sharp increase in the previous quarter and is largely attributable to the fall in orders for cellular phones. the uptrend in corporate profits and business fixed investment is evident in the september tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in japan ) as well as in the results of various surveys conducted on small firms. however, the bank does not consider the current state of business fixed investment indicative of overheating. the recent growth in business fixed investment has been supported by the fact that firms are factoring the ongoing rapid growth of the global market into their business strategies, and at the same time are still displaying a strong tendency to evaluate investment profitability

jean - pierre danthine : does cash have a future? summary of a speech by mr jean - pierre danthine, vice chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the assemblee generale de l ’ association des alumni hec, lausanne, 8 may 2014. * * * the complete speech can be found in german on the swiss national bank ’ s website : www. snb. ch. one of the traditional tasks of the swiss national bank ( snb ) is to provide the economy with banknotes and coins. since the establishment of the snb, banknotes have constituted the most visible link to the population. as an everyday article of use, but also symbolically, banknotes embody the quality, security and stability of the snb, and of switzerland in general, not least of all also for the rest of the world. it is therefore of key importance that the snb undertake the task of cash supply and distribution conscientiously. the role that banknotes play in the public ’ s trust in the institution and its decisions is not to be underestimated. in turn, this trust is an important prerequisite for the snb to be able to fulfil its core monetary policy mandate, and thereby ensure price stability. due to technological developments in the post - war period, the significance of cash declined, as measured in terms of economic performance. since the beginning of the 1990s, however, the demand for cash has hovered at a stable level, and since 2008, in the wake of the financial crisis, there has even been a marked increase. thus the technological advances of the last 25 years – especially the internet – have not significantly diminished the demand for cash. people still appreciate cash as a store of value and a means of payment. it is visible and tangible, which makes it especially valuable when there is uncertainty about the stability of banks. in addition, interest rates have been very low for some time now, and therefore the opportunity costs of holding cash are also low. however, the significance of cash as a payment instrument, too, remains unimpaired. in this regard, two essential characteristics stand out : as legal tender, cash is widely accepted and extremely reliable to use. nevertheless, technology is constantly moving forward in terms of new forms of electronic payment as well as in the area of digital forms of money. what is more, the share of the population which grew up without bank cards, the internet and mobile telephone