- based counterfactual exercises. the impact of the march 2016 measures and the impact of the december 2016 measures are assessed via modelbased counterfactual exercises. lending rates refer to rates to nfcs. * changes in lending rates are based on monthly data, the reference period for which is may 2014 to august 2017. latest observation : 4 october 2017. 2 notes : hicp inflation and real gdp growth are based on the september 2017 mpe ; the median and range reflect estimates of hicp inflation and real gdp growth over the projection horizon in the absence of monetary policy support ; these estimates are obtained from three different exercises : bmes, the sapi task force and the expert group. latest observation : 2017 q2 for real gdp and 2017 q3 for hicp. 3 see remarks by v. constancio, “ growth, adjustment and resilience in the euro area ” at the forum villa d ’ este, cernobbio, 1 september 2017. 4 bayoumi, t. and b. eichengreen ( 2017 ), “ aftershocks of monetary unification : hysteresis with a financial twist ”, imf working paper no. 17 / 55. 5 notes : the dynamic factor model ( u2 core ) is based on the full 93 hicp items from each of 12 countries. super - core is based only on those items in hicp excluding food and energy that are sensitive to slack as measured by the output gap. the range includes exclusion - based measures, trimmed means and a weighted median. latest observation : august 2017 and september 2017 for hicp excluding food and energy. latest observation : august 2017 and september 2017 for hicp excluding food and energy. 6 for more details see remarks by v. constancio, “ understanding and overcoming low inflation ” at the ecb conference on “ understanding inflation : lessons from the past, lessons for the future? ”, frankfurt am main, 21 and 22 september 2017 6 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches 7 ibid, for a detailed discussion 7 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches

vitor constancio : growth in a more resilient euro area remarks by mr vitor constancio, vice - president of the european central bank, on a panel entitled " the global economy : prospects for broad - based growth ", at the 32nd annual g30 international banking seminar, washington dc, 15 october 2017. * * * ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to be part of such a distinguished panel. in my remarks today, i would like to reflect on the euro area ’ s recent economic developments and prospects. in doing so, i will outline the role monetary policy has played – and will continue to play – in supporting the recovery, while also touching upon some of the additional policies required to firmly secure a self - sustained recovery. the main message i would like to convey is that the euro area economy is experiencing a broadbased, robust and resilient recovery, which is underpinned by the monetary policy measures introduced by the ecb since june 2014. despite this favourable growth dynamics, inflation developments have been subdued. we remain confident that the continued closing of the output gap will lead inflation to return to our medium - term objective, yet this return remains conditional on a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation. looking beyond monetary policy, considerable reforms have been implemented and institutional progress has been achieved since the crisis, but supply - side policies are still required at the national level to boost potential growth, while at the euro area level, further institutional reforms are needed to enhance the functioning of emu. recent economic developments and prospects in the second quarter of 2017, euro area real gdp expanded for the 17th consecutive quarter, growing by 2. 3 % year - on - year and exceeding our expectations from earlier in the year. growth is also becoming more broad - based across euro area countries, showing the lowest dispersion since the beginning of the monetary union. the flow of survey data in the third quarter has been encouraging and bodes well for continued growth momentum in the period ahead. robust economic activity is also being translated into a substantial amount of job creation. almost 7 million more people are now employed in the euro area than in mid - 2013, which implies that all of the employment losses recorded during the crisis have been offset. the improving labour market combined with increasing household wealth, strong consumer confidence and favourable financing conditions should all support continued robust private consumption. investment prospects also look promising, which reflects both the need to make up for forgone investment in previous years as