became lord mayor. this year the lord mayor ’ s charity “ pitch perfect ” is focussed on two educational charities in which i have a special personal interest – the educational work of the london symphony orchestra and chance to shine, the campaign to regenerate cricket in state schools which, in five years, has already brought the opportunity to play competitive matches to more than one million children, over 40 % of whom are girls. your personal commitment nick to support these causes in times of great financial difficulty is a tribute to you and also to the charitable instincts of the city of london. we thank you for that work, and i am sure that everyone here tonight thanks both you and the lady mayoress for the splendid hospitality which you have extended to us all this evening. so i invite you all to rise and join me in the traditional toast of good health and prosperity to “ the lord mayor and the lady mayoress ”, nick and claire anstee.

generate the continuous rise in prices to which monetary policy should respond. a continuous rise in prices would ordinarily be associated with strong money growth, wage inflation, rapid increases in money spending and an excess of demand over the supply capacity of the economy. the uk economy exhibits none of these traits – annual broad money growth is around 1 %, growth in regular pay is close to 2 % and money spending growth is around 3 % ; all of which are significantly lower than the average growth rates recorded before the crisis. and a range of indicators point to spare capacity in the economy rather than excess demand. perhaps most obviously, unemployment is around 8 %, three percentage points above the average levels before the crisis – a million fewer people in work. the monetary policy committee judges that it is likely, though not certain, that this spare capacity will press down on inflation. that seems to be happening in both the united states and the euro area where underlying inflation is falling. no one should take this as a sign of complacency. the mpc is conscious that there are always risks to the upside, and the apparent rise in inflation expectations is one that concerns us. we have always explicitly recognised that there is a significant chance that inflation may turn out to be above target. a forecast is not a single number ; it is an assessment of risks. in our may forecast, the mpc judged that, under prevailing market interest rates, the odds were in favour of inflation remaining above target over the next year, whereas, looking two to three years ahead, the odds were on inflation being below the target. there are always risks to the outlook – on both sides – and to ignore them in either direction would be foolish. what the mpc must do is continually update its assessment of those risks, and set policy in order that, on balance, inflation remains on track to meet the target in the medium term. no one should doubt our determination to meet the target. the inflation target introduced in 1992, and the new regime for monetary policy decision - making introduced in 1997, have shown beyond doubt that monetary policy in the united kingdom is dedicated to maintaining low and stable inflation. indeed, for ten years, i was, to my frustration, regularly described as a hawk. but i am neither hawk nor dove. everyone on the committee votes according to his or her judgement of the outlook for the economy. i have not changed. the committee has not changed. circumstances have changed. when confidence, output and trade around the