happens there will no doubt be some disruption, as always, and more so as it will be the first fed tightening for nine years and the ecb will be easing policy at the same time. so there is likely to be some turbulence in asset and foreign exchange markets. on the whole, though, i think we should regard the fed ’ s likely actions as a positive development. fed policy is still likely to be quite expansionary for some time. the punch bowl isn ’ t being taken away, its contents are just being made a little less potent. while that is going on our own economy continues its adjustment to the end of the investment phase of the “ mining boom ”. the massive run - up in resources sector capital spending that was a natural response to earlier very high prices is reversing, causing a drag on demand. so we hope for other sources of demand to speed up to help make up the difference. some of them are, though not as seamlessly as any of us would like. i ’ ve talked a lot about this before so i won ’ t labour the point. it is a major transition. we can hope to assist it, and the reserve bank is doing that, and will continue to lend what support it can, within the limits of its powers and consistent with its mandate. the decline in the exchange rate is assisting the transition ( as it assisted in absorbing the earlier phase of the mining boom ). but we have always said we cannot hope to fine - tune this transition, however much we may wish otherwise. looking back at the history of such episodes, of which there have been a few over the past century or more, if we come through this terms of trade event with neither a major outbreak of inflation in the upswing nor a major crash in the downswing, even if we have a period of sub - average growth in the process, we will have done far, far better than in any previous event of this kind, let alone one of this magnitude. i still think that is the most likely outcome. even so, the lower terms of trade mean that, all other things equal, the path of future incomes is not as high as it might have looked a few years ago. even allowing for the fact that we all knew, intellectually, that at least part of the boom was not permanent, there is a human tendency to project what we see now ( good or bad ) into the future. eventually reality intrudes and we have to re

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