aina bilit y sust bond issuance increases 2025, it increases from 6. 5 % to 7. 7 % of gdp tariffs ( [UNK] in semester ii - 25 ) immigration euro area / united kingdom, china geopolitical trade fragmentation : supply disruption : trade war, sanctions energy dominance : oil supply demand ffr for asset the usa, china, mexico, canada, euro area / the united kingdom trade diversion : asean, latin amerika reducing immigration, tightening customs deportation of illegal immigrants ust yield rises commodity market : 25 % : steel, aluminium, motor vehicles from the euro area / uk, followed by retaliation 25 % : machinery / electronics and chemicals from china. china retaliates with 10 % increasing penalties for illegal entry and overstaying inflation rises risk export commodity prices oil prices ( 2025 - 26 ) global inflation ( 2025 - 2026 ) global gdp growth ensuring nato members meet the requirements for ﬁscal spending of 2 % of gdp on defense cut aid to ukraine. ending the conﬂict in ukraine through negotiations with russia settling the conﬂict in the middle east smaller cuts in the ffr, ust yields rising ust yield rises notes : flows into u. s. - trade [UNK] ( supply shock ) have a negative impact on gdp usd strengthens financial assets and a positive impact on inﬂation. - tax cuts ( demand shock ) have a positive impact on both gdp and inﬂation exchange rate depreciation and foreign portfolio investment outflows from emes source : bank indonesia, adapted from various sources smaller cuts in global interest rates geopolitical conflict main policies : [UNK] increase import prices 2. impact on the global economy the direction of trump's policy table 1. global economic growth performance and outlook ( % ) 2024 * 2025 * 2026 * world 3. 5 3. 3 3. 2 3. 1 3. 0 advanced economies 2. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 7 1. 8 united states 1. 9 2. 9 2. 7 2. 1 2. 3 euro area 3. 4 0. 4 0. 8 1. 2 1. 3 japan 1. 0 1. 9 0. 0 1. 2 0. 6 4. 1 4. 4 4. 2 4. 1 4. 0 china 3. 0 5. 2 4. 8 4. 5 3. 9 india 6. 8 7. 7 7. 0 6. 7 6. 7

cross - border economic and financial transactions, maintain stability and build sustainable economies, while prioritizing national interests. this initiative will be realized through figure 22. direction of innovation and digital payment system acceptance in bspi 2030 digital innovation and acceptance fostering innovation of payment services c litera strengthening digital literacy and acceptance y services services data public economic transaction data risk consumer protection data industry bank - nonbank payment services innovation market intelligence design thinking snap instrument channel data center sandbox payment services qris bank indonesia data as a service kyc aml - cft cyber fraud unfair competition bi - digital innovation center industry & bi collaboration payment info bi led payment clear supervisory technology - regulatory technology reporting - regulation - supervision source : bank indonesia two programs, namely : ( i ) expanding the scope of cross - border qris cooperation ; and ( ii ) preparing national payment system infrastructure that is ready to connect internationally ( figure 23. ). existing qris cooperation between indonesia and malaysia, thailand, and singapore will be expanded to japan, south korea, india, united arab emirates ( uae ) and saudi arabia. cross - border payment connectivity will also be driven through interconnected payment system infrastructure channels, both bilaterally and multilaterally. on the retail side, bank indonesia is pursuing bi - fast interconnection multilaterally through project nexus with malaysia, thailand, singapore, the philippines, and india with the involvement of the bank for international settlements ( bis ). bank indonesia is actively involved in the stage iii development of project nexus by preparing a roadmap for multilateral interconnection between five asean member states and india for the use case of remittances. in terms of wholesale payment system infrastructure connectivity, the bi - rtgs modernization, as previously mentioned, is being prepared from the outset to anticipate and meet future cross - border interconnection demand. rtgs interconnection has also become a g20 agenda promoted through the initiative of enhancing cross - border payments, which needs to be anticipated early, considering indonesia ’ s position as a g20 member. fifth, bank indonesia will continue digital rupiah development in the advanced experimentation stage with a focus on replicating the function of the wholesale market and financial market deepening. this will be achieved through three main programs as follows : ( i ) experimentation in terms of issuance, transference, and redemption of the securities ledger ; ( ii ) experimentation in terms of using digital securities for the use cases of monetary operations and other