, 2 percent over the medium term. this situation changed somewhat after 2012, when the rate of change in the harmonized index of consumer prices ( hicp ) began to decrease continuously. the decline occurred across a wide range of goods and services in the face of a re - deterioration in the output gap and a price drop in various commodities ( charts 7 and 8 ). nevertheless, the hicp excluding food and energy remains at around 1 percent. following the decrease in hicp, short - term inflation expectations declined significantly, whereas medium - to long - term inflation expectations decreased moderately ; they currently stand at around 1. 8 percent. the inflation swap rate ( implied five - year forward rate, five years ahead ) strengthened a declining trend from mid - 2014 and reached around 1. 5 percent by early 2015, which triggered concerns over the risk of disinflation. thereafter, the inflation swap rate has increased moderately and recovered to around slightly below 2 percent, owing to the impact of the ecb ’ s asset purchase program ( including an announcement effect ) and the greater - than - expected performance of economic activity and prices. but most recently, the gap from the target has somewhat widened, partly owing to the recent re - drop in crude oil prices ( chart 6 ). a recent decline in the inflation swap rate is also observed in japan. this might be a reflection of a decrease in inflation risk premium associated with declining oil prices rather than declining inflation expectations. c. gap between households ’ price perception and price performance in japan : different feature from the euro area i would now like to turn to households ’ price expectations and spending patterns. owing to the lack of comparable data, i will use short - term data ( about one year ahead ). from the boj ’ s opinion survey on the general public ’ s views and behavior, the following data are available from june 2006 : ( 1 ) the perception diffusion index ( di ) of present price levels ( the present price perception di ) ; ( 2 ) the one - year - ahead price di ; and ( 3 ) the one - year - ahead spending di. from the european commission ’ s business and consumer surveys, i will use the following data from 1999 : ( 1 ) the price trend di over the previous twelve months ; ( 2 ) the price trend di over the next twelve months ; and ( 3 ) the spending expectation di for major purchases ( such as furniture and electrical or electronic devices ) over the next twelve months. bis central bankers ’ speeches

leading role in shaping the development of the country ’ s payment systems, in line with its statutory mandate to promote safe, efficient and reliable payment systems. we have taken important steps to correct price signals associated with the use of different payment instruments, and created market mechanisms to better align incentives at the institution level. along the way there was resistance, but we had experienced that left to its own devices, the market is not capable of making strategic changes necessary to drive payment efficiency, financial inclusion and competitiveness. but, cooperation is key. 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches indeed, the various measures that were implemented have been instrumental in accelerating the e - payment agenda forward, only because of the cooperation of the industry, sometimes with a bit of nudging. but truth be told, we have been able to achieve so much. today, the payments industry is no longer the exclusive domain of banks. the advent of fintech driven by the increasingly inexpensive and pervasive internet and mobile technology has encouraged the entry of more agile non - bank players as potential disruptors or collaborators of the incumbent players. this has set the stage for an exciting new era in payments, an era in which the industry is expected to take on a larger role in delivering a more robust and efficient payments system for malaysia. the bank will facilitate this in three key ways : i. first, through policy initiatives to encourage collaborative competition or ‘ co - opetition ’ ; ii. second, by further strengthening industry alignment ; and iii. third, by supporting more inclusive governance arrangements for the development of the payment system. policies to promote co - opetition as a key enabler for greater efficiency, competition and innovation network effects are critical to an efficient payment system. the larger the network of a payment system, the more valuable it is to users of the payment system. instead of duplicating resources to build costly and overlapping payment infrastructures, the industry should collaborate at the infrastructure level to improve the network architecture and achieve this more quickly, thus benefitting from economies of scale and new opportunities to serve customers better. competition should continue to exist at the product level, where industry players compete to deliver a positive user experience through value - added product offerings. this would not only avoid market fragmentation, but also allow a more optimal use of scarce industry resources. such ‘ co - opetition ’ is not new in malaysia. we used to have three atm networks in the country. in 1997, the three atm networks were consolidated