john iannis mourmouras : some reflections on post - globalisation and trump's trade war keynote speech by professor john iannis mourmouras, deputy governor of the bank of greece, at a conference jointly organised by the society of international economic law and the european university of cyprus, nicosia, 14 april 2018. * * * your excellency, ambassador mavroyiannis, former minister, professor flogaitis, esteemed colleagues, dear students, ladies and gentlemen first of all, i would like to thank the organisers, the society of international economic law and the european university of cyprus for the kind invitation to address a conference that features such a dynamic group of participants, comprising distinguished professors, but also young scholars from the legal profession with promising futures. it is the second time in the recent past that i am addressing a law conference. the first time was a speech on the future of the economic and monetary union ( june 2016 ) addressed to members of the committee on international monetary law of the international law association ( mocomila ) upon the invitation of my good friend, professor christos gortsos, chair of the board of directors of the ila ’ s greek branch. in my keynote speech today, i will discuss the issue of globalisation and its diminishing role in today ’ s world, an era that has become known as post - globalisation and also talk about the worrying prospect of a global trade war and its implications. after a brief introduction presenting the waves of globalisation throughout history, i will present my hypothesis on the future of globalisation and whether it has come to an end. the third section of my speech relates to the economic aspect of post - globalisation, that is, its economic effects with particular emphasis on trade and finance. the fourth section addresses the aspect of politics and security in the new multipolar world as regional poles thrive. the fifth section discusses the adverse distributional effects of globalisation. the sixth section takes a closer look into the populist phenomenon as a reaction to globalisation, particularly in our continent, europe. in the final section of my speech, i discuss the prospect of a global trade war being triggered by the latest unilateralist moves and shift in the united states ’ trade policy under president donald trump. 1. introduction in order to set the background for my speech today, we are now at an inflection point for the process of globalisation, which started in the late 19th

, their impact on china ’ s economy will knock a mere 0. 3 % off china ’ s gdp growth rate ( china ’ s gdp growth target this year is 6. 5 % ). an escalation into a trade war is thus a real danger and it could likely have significant negative effects on global activity, raise price pressures given that trade wars are stagflationary ( meaning that they simultaneously damage growth and stimulate inflation ) and could spill over into broader 23 / 26 bis central bankers'speeches international tensions, and there is always danger of an intensification in trade frictions in the next downturn ( be it us or global ). both countries ’ lists are, for now, just threats. over the next two months, america ’ s list will be open for public consultation ( there is no deadline for the tariffs to come into force ). china has said that it will wait for america to move. china ’ s president xi seems to have offered an olive branch to the us president. in a speech at a high - profile event last tuesday he promised increased imports, accelerated access to china ’ s insurance and other financial sectors, lower tariffs ( e. g. on imported cars ) and greater protection for intellectual property, which is the hot potato in the us - china trade fight. 7. 2 the reasons behind president trump ’ s decisions and why he is wrong president trump ’ s decisions confirm his long - standing protectionist ‘ america first ’ agenda, based on a desire to protect us workers and specific us industries. he also claims that the us tariff list was drawn up in response to china ’ s alleged theft of american firms ’ intellectual property from outsourcing the production of myriads of goods to china. take for instance my iphone : it has been designed and developed by apple in california, but its assembly takes place in china. now the americans accuse china of stealing the design of their technology. but the question is why do they outsource their production in the first place? copying technology is not new in world history. it is how japan became a global force in car production, copying mercedes and ford production and now produces better cars than the germans and the americans ( toyota ). and that was an era when there was no outsourcing from either germany or the us. so why is the trump administration really introducing such protectionist measures? trump is the first post - war us president to challenge the conventional wisdom that the global economy has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity thanks to