our 2 percent inflation objective. market - based measures of inflation compensation suggest inflation expectations remain well anchored. for instance, the five - year, five - year - forward cpi inflation compensation measure based on treasury inflation - protected securities has remained range bound around 2. 2 percent since declining about 0. 2 percentage point in june — consistent with the fomc ’ s 2 percent objective for pce inflation. 16 the tips measure is based on cpi inflation, which generally runs a bit above pce inflation. - 9survey - based measures also suggest longer - run expectations remain well anchored. recent analysis of the survey of consumer expectations ( sce ) concludes that “ in august 2021 consumers ’ five - year ahead inflation expectations were as well anchored as they were two years ago, before the start of the pandemic. ” 17 longer - term inflation expectations in the university of michigan survey of consumers have moved mostly sideways in the past four to five months, and the current reading of the federal reserve board index of common inflation expectations remains well within the range that prevailed before 2014. while one - year ahead measures in the sce and the michigan survey have seen large increases, these short - term measures tend to move with consumers ’ experience of contemporaneous inflation. so what do these developments imply for the path ahead? one clear lesson is that we need to be humble about our ability to correctly anticipate future economic conditions given the unpredictability of the virus. we had expected a smooth rotation from goods spending to services spending during a complete reopening this fall, but delta has slowed this process. partly as a result, employment gains flatlined in august in the leisure and hospitality sector, where many of the job losses have occurred. as a result of delta, the september labor report may be weaker and less informative of underlying economic momentum than i had hoped. payroll employment is now between 5 and 8½ million short of where it would be in the absence of the pandemic. the unemployment rate adjusted for pandemic - related olivier armantier, fatima boumahdi, leo goldman, gizem kosar, jessica lu, giorgio topa, and wilbert van der klaauw ( 2021 ), “ have consumers ’ long - run inflation expectations become unanchored? ” federal reserve bank of new york, liberty street economics, september 24, https : / / libertystreeteconomics. newyorkfed. org / 2021 / 09 /

2 percentage point gap that existed in december 2020 had been closed by august 2021. the census bureau estimates that the number of non - employed individuals citing one of these factors as their main reason for not working rose from 2. 0 million in wave 34 of the household pulse survey ( reflecting data collected from july 21 to august 2 ) to 4. 7 million in wave 37 ( reflecting september 1 to september 13 ). for more information, see https : / / www. census. gov / programs - surveys / household - pulsesurvey / data. html. these data are reported by burbio through september 20. for the most recent update, see https : / / info. burbio. com / school - tracker - update - latest. - 5some parents to delay their plans to return to the labor force. similarly, covid - related challenges have reduced the availability of day care, preschool, and after - school care, further complicating parental return - to - work decisions. 11 research has shown that the pandemic has taken a significant toll on the labor market status of many mothers, particular black and hispanic mothers, mothers with younger children, and mothers with lower incomes. 12 with record - high job openings and an unemployment rate just above 5 percent, the headline vacancy - to - unemployed ( v / u ) ratio has risen above 1 vacancy per job seeker and is now at pre - pandemic levels. some cite this ratio of job openings to job seekers as indicating we are close to full employment. but virus conditions may be driving an important wedge between labor supply in the near term relative to the medium term. it is instructive to consider the period 2017 to 2019 when the v / u ratio remained in a tight range around a value of 1. 2, similar to its july value. although prime - age unemployment declined by less than half a percentage point over this period, that modest decline was accompanied by a 2 million increase in the prime - age labor force, which raised the prime - age epop ratio about 1½ percentage points. see, for example, claire cain miller ( 2021 ), “ ‘ can ’ t compete ’ : why hiring for child care is a huge struggle, ” new york times, september 21, https : / / www. nytimes. com / 2021 / 09 / 21 / upshot / child - care. html. recent research found that women with very young children, who accounted for 10 percent of the prep