basis points effective 10 august 2018. the strong policy actions recently taken by the bsp are meant to rein in inflation expectations and prevent sustained supply - side price pressures from driving further second - round effects. we expect inflation to revert to target over the policy horizon. we enjoy resilient economic growth. while the latest gdp outturn shows a lower figure relative to last year ’ s and last quarter ’ s growth figures, we still remain above the long - term average trend of 5. 3 percent ( for 2000 – 2017 relative to 6. 0 percent for q2 2018 ). the economy has achieved uninterrupted growth for the past 78 consecutive quarters even in the midst of the global financial crisis in 2008 – 2009. we have sustained fiscal discipline. the fiscal deficit is expected to be contained within 3 percent of gdp ( 2. 3 percent of gdp as of the 1st half of 2018 ). this supports effective government spending and sustainability to meet debt obligations. our external position is strong. our gross international reserves ( gir ) remains an ample buffer. as of end - july 2018, our gir of us $ 76. 9 billion is equivalent to 7. 4 months ’ worth of imports of goods, and payments of services and primary income. it is also equivalent to 4. 1 times the country ’ s external debt maturing in the short term. likewise, the economy ’ s key external debt indicators are favorable. as of q1 2018, external debt - to - gdp ratio was just 23. 0 percent. moreover, the country ’ s external debt remained largely medium - to long - term in nature ( 80. 5 percent of total external debt ). this means that fx requirements for debt payments are well spread out and, thus, more manageable. we are committed to maintaining a flexible and market - determined exchange rate which allows us to conduct independent monetary policy focused on assessment of domestic conditions. this likewise promotes our resilience against external shocks. recent depreciation of the peso is attributed to both fundamental and non - fundamental factors. fundamental factors include : ( i ) higher demand for imports of capital goods, raw materials and 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches intermediate products in support of our growing economy ; and ( ii ) dollar debt repayments, prepayments, and outward investments. meanwhile, non - fundamental factors reflect various market sentiments over domestic and external developments adding more pressure on the peso. we remain confident that the philippine economy ’ s solid fundamental

our analyses show weak monetary pressures on inflation. money supply expanded at slow paces during 2013, supported mainly by the private - sector demand, which was marked in the first half of the year. lending remained weak, reflecting economic agents ’ low demand for financing and banks ’ conservative lending policies. lowering credit interest rates in the fourth quarter did not boost the credit demand. at year - end, the annual change in the banks ’ loan portfolio settled at – 1. 2 %. * * * our baseline projections for future economic developments show a gradually recovered growth rate in 2014. alongside the positive external demand, private - sector demand will improve this year. private - sector arrears payment is believed to improve this sector ’ s liquidity and ease the banks ’ balance sheets. also, accumulating financial savings and easing monetary policy stimulus will materialise into better performance of private investment and consumption. besides improvement, the albanian economy is expected to operate below potential over the period ahead. below - potential economic growth and weak inflation pressures from the external sector will lead to a low inflation rate. at the end of discussions, the supervisory council decided to lower the key interest rate by 0. 25 percentage points, to 2. 75 %. given the available information, the bank of albania deems that the expected economic and financial outlook requires maintaining an easing monetary policy over the quarters ahead to help create the proper conditions for meeting inflation target in the medium term. bis central bankers ’ speeches