wage growth tracker. series show 12month moving averages of the median percent change in the nominal hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart. workers are assigned to wage quartiles based on the average of their wage reports in both the current population survey and outgoing rotation group interviews ; workers in the lowest 25 percent of the average wage distribution are assigned to the 1st quartile, and those in the top 25 percent are assigned to the 4th quartile. - 5strong labor market was expected to persist. in december 2019, the median federal open market committee ( fomc ) participant expected the aggregate unemployment rate to remain below 4 percent through the end of 2022 while inflation was expected to move back up to the committee ’ s 2 percent objective. 5 had this long, non - inflationary expansion continued as the committee forecast, gaps in employment and earnings across groups may have continued to narrow as well. the labor market following the covid - 19 pandemic the expansion, however, was cut short by the covid - 19 pandemic. in april 2020, the unemployment rate, as shown in figure 6, briefly surged to 14. 8 percent, its highest rate since the great depression while the share of americans seeking jobs ( not shown ) plummeted. moreover, those same groups that had benefited from the strong prepandemic labor market — african american and hispanic workers, women, and individuals without a college degree — generally fared worse at the onset of the pandemic. although some of these groups typically experience greater losses in economic downturns, factors unique to the pandemic, including greater exposure to the industries most affected by lockdowns, also contributed to disparities in job losses. for instance, unlike a typical recession, the pandemic disproportionately affected service industries, which employ a larger share of women than industries like construction and manufacturing, which are generally more cyclically sensitive. the december 2019 median forecast of fomc participants is taken from the summary of economic projections ( sep ), which is available on the board ’ s website at https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / fomccalendars. htm. fomc participants submit projections of future economic activity and their individual views of the appropriate path of monetary policy conditional thereupon four times a year. these projections are published as the sep. the sep is neither a consensus forecast nor

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