it is still possible to achieve this, but we do need to be prepared for other outcomes as well, including a sharper rise in unemployment. given the world we are living in, there are many sources of uncertainties at present and we could be knocked off that narrow path. recent data as the board navigates this path, it is paying close attention to developments in the global economy, household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. i would like to say a few words about each of these in light of the recent data. first the global economy, which is in a challenging position. the imf is predicting a period of weak growth, especially in advanced economies ( graph 5 ). even so, recent forecast revisions have tended to be to the upside, following stronger news on labour markets and household spending on services in several countries. a change in china ’ s covid policy has also improved the near - term outlook there. graph 5 advanced economy gdp growth * ppp - weighted % imf forecast % - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 6 * - 6 imf estimate for 2022 ; imf forecast for 2023 and 2024. source : ceic data the main global issue though is still inflation. headline inflation has peaked in most economies and is now coming down due to the resolution of supply side problems, softer demand for goods and a decline in some commodity prices ( graph 6 ). even so, there is still uncertainty about how quickly inflation will come back down. in many countries, the prices of services are still increasing quickly and wages growth is above the rate that is consistent with sustainable achievement of inflation targets. reflecting this, in underlying terms, inflation is proving to be uncomfortably persistent. while most central banks are forecasting that inflation will be back to target within two to three years, there is a range of other plausible scenarios where it occurs quicker or slower. graph 6 consumer price inflation year - ended % united states euro area % % - 2 canada united kingdom % - 2 sources : rba ; refinitiv in australia, the monthly cpi indicator for january published last week provided support to the idea that headline inflation has also peaked in australia ( graph 7 ). this monthly indicator is still experimental and can be volatile from month to month, so some caution is required. but the year - ended inflation rate showed a welcome decline from 8. 4 per cent in december to 7. 4 per cent in january. graph 7 monthly cpi indicator headline inflation, year

cannot pursue any economic policy avenue other than one which, firstly, provides for and boosts higher employment growth or, on the other side of the same coin, brings about swifter and more sustainable gains in our productivity and competitiveness ; and, secondly, helps curb the growth of our public and private debt with a view to subsequently reducing it. in economic policy, hits and misses only become clearly manifest after some time. just like big vessels which, owing to their great inertia, can only change course or speed slowly, an economy such as ours also moves with considerable inertia : correcting mistakes takes time and, almost always, entails losses in income and well - being, and social instability. our experience – both in the pre - crisis expansionary phase while the imbalances were accumulating and during their correction and the recovery of growth – should help us avoid errors, persevere with reforms to safeguard and enhance our competitiveness, and fulfil our public finance commitments in the european union. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches