and costs and, importantly, how we articulate and communicate that balance to others. much has changed since the mortgage measures were first introduced. there are longer - term, structural, trends at play that merit deeper focus. globally, interest rates have been on a downward path. the role of non - bank financial institutions in the housing market has expanded considerably, while housing supply overall in ireland has recovered more slowly than many people expected. compared to 2015, we can now draw on more experience and analysis to inform our framework review. we have access to better information thanks to the central credit register. other countries have also adopted similar measures, so we can learn from their experiences. this 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches means that it is a good time to tackle some deeper questions, like our overall toolkit, or the benefits and costs of the measures, or the interactions with other policies. we in the central bank are keen to hear your views and gather your perspectives on : what a sustainable mortgage market looks like to you ; whether you think the mortgage measures have been effective in achieving their goals ; what you see as the most important factors driving broader housing and mortgage market developments in ireland, and what you think the central bank should focus on as part of our framework review. the more feedback we gather from stakeholders and the wider community, the stronger our framework review will be. with this in mind, i encourage you to also share your views via our online survey and to share the survey link with your friends, family and peers. the online survey can be accessed at www. centralbank. ie / survey. we plan to publish our own assessment of what we have learned from both the listening events and the online survey in the second half of this year and we plan to complement this with emerging research from our own teams. i look forward to hearing your perspectives today. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

- zero scenario results in a contraction of the surpluses for middle eastern countries. conversely, the g - cubed model depicts the same scenario leading to an expansion of the current account surplus. for oil - exporting nations, it is logical to anticipate reduced revenues along the path to net zero. in a forward - looking model like g - cubed, the immediate response is a proactive adjustment by consumers and investors, translating to a short - term surge in current accounts with reduced consumption and investment. [ slide 20 : climate transition impact on trade balances : a tale of two models ] to what extent can we anticipate forward - looking behaviors in the short and medium term? this question carries significant implications for policymakers [ slide 21 ]. relying solely on ex - ante modeling may prove insufficient, and we need to identify proxies that can effectively assess the impact of macro shocks similar to climate or transition - related shocks, be they associated with productivity, cost structures, etc. the progress made in macro - modeling over the past five years has been significant, but the next step is to find a clear answer to these very key questions. [ slide 21 : policy conclusions ] the modeling capacity regarding the impact of the green transition on macroeconomic variables has undergone a very significant upgrade in recent years. nevertheless, a series of fundamental questions are still unresolved, and we should stay attentive to possible divergence among countries or regions following different pathways in the transition process. the synergy of macro modeling and econometric evidence will be key for advancing our understanding and informing effective policy - makers. we hope that cepr scholars will provide insightful answers to these crucial questions. thank you very much for your attention.