2023 and a reduction in expected inflation. furthermore, the decomposition of long - term interest rates shows a growing preponderance of external risk factors, while domestic risk factors have decreased ( figure 11 ). in any case, real rates show movements of a smaller magnitude. the nominal exchange rate has continued to fluctuate significantly in recent months. compared to the previous year - end, the peso depreciated by around 1 %. finally, domestic bank credit continues to be slow, amid a constrained supply and limited demand. the different credit categories show low annual variations by historic standards, while interest rates remain high. the third - quarter bank lending survey indicates that credit supply conditions have become more restrictive, in the face of tight demand. structural parameters as we said in september, in this report we updated our estimation of the structural parameters used in our medium - term projections. the new estimate covers trend growth and the neutral interest rate. it is important to note that trend growth is related to the medium - term growth capacity of the economy. therefore, when we estimate it, we refer to a long period of time, usually a decade. the bank also constantly estimates potential growth, which is a different concept, more closely associated with the evolution of the economy's short - term productive capacity. in any case, in the medium term, the two variables — trend and potential growth — converge. we estimate that for the period 2023 - 2032 the trend growth of non - mining gdp will average 2. 2 %, following the same declining trend that we anticipated in our june 2021 estimate. at that time, we projected that trend growth would average 2. 9 %, although the baseline period was different : 2021 - 2030. the main difference with the previous projection is that in the shorter term it factored in a recovery in hours worked and labor participation rate after the covid shock. in the current estimate, which starts in 2023, these variables have already made most of their recovery. thus, in the next few years, they will no longer contribute as importantly to trend growth. towards the end of the period, the convergence of hours worked to the oecd average becomes more important, which will gradually reduce the contribution of the labor factor. low growth in total factor productivity continues to be expected, which is supported by its consolidation of a downward trend ( figure 12 ). our neutral mpr estimate puts it at 3. 75 %, within a range between 3. 5

rosanna costa : implications of climate change and ecosystem services degradation for macroeconomic and financial stability opening remarks by ms rosanna costa, governor of the central bank of chile, at the xxvi annual conference of the central bank of chile, santiago de chile, 27 november 2023. * * * welcoming good morning to the speakers, discussants, and everyone who is here attending in person and to those who are following us via streaming. we welcome you to the twentysixth annual conference of the central bank of chile entitled " implications of climate change and ecosystem services degradation for macroeconomic and financial stability. " let my first words be to thank the team that has worked very hard to make this event possible and that has arranged the magnificent line - up of speakers and discussants that we will have over these two days. motivation and context over the last years we have seen dire warnings of the deterioration of nature and its consequences. we have witnessed record temperatures in many countries, reduced river levels, devastating fires, droughts, and extreme weather events. in parallel, we have seen a severe disruption of multiple ecosystems around the world and massive loss of wildlife. in this context, on the one hand, several scientific publications draw attention to what is happening and predict the outlook to be far from auspicious. the latest reports on climate change and biodiversity by the ipcc and the ipbes show that we are running very short on the commitments made to halt the damage to nature, thus risking the crossing of multiple tipping points which can have consequences on our societies. on the other hand, policymakers, businesses and households, are increasingly taking actions to reduce their impact on the nature and driving a transition to a sustainable economy. all these activities and climate change itself have repercussions on the economy, the financial system and the welfare of society. the natural question that arises is : how is this challenge being addressed by central banks? not all central banks have the same mandates or economic tools, but there are several common areas in which our institutions should advance and contribute towards a more sustainable economy, always respecting our mandates, objectives, and activities. but it should be mentioned that our role is not to be a climate policymaker. in other words, central banks are not here to provide recommendations or enact policies to safeguard the environment. 1 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches in fact, at the central bank of chile we do not have an explicit mandate regarding climate change. our goals established by law are to