i mentioned earlier, the year - on - year growth in the goods price index based on the point - of - sale ( pos ) data collected through chain stores appears to have slowed. the price index based on the pos data covers only around 20 percent of the consumer price index ( cpi ) in terms of its weight, so the trend in the pos data - based index may not necessarily affect overall prices immediately. service prices, which have a substantial weight in the cpi, may have a pent - up potential for a rise following the recent increase in hourly wages for non - regular employees. unlike changes in food and clothing prices, changes in prices of individual services, which are provided by many small firms, are seldom featured in media reports, making it difficult to keep track of them. therefore, looking at consumer price statistics is the only way to examine the trend of overall service prices. as for the outlook, while the year - on - year growth rate of prices of food products and durable consumer goods are expected to peak out as indicated by the pos data, the key will be the extent to which prices of individual services, with their pent - up potential for a rise, can offset that. however, house rent and imputed rent, which have a large weight in service prices, are strongly correlated with wages, and given the results of the labor - management wage negotiations this spring, it may be difficult to expect much of a rise in rents. house rent and imputed rent are not adjusted for quality associated with the passage of time, so the presence of a downward bias in consumer price statistics has been pointed out. with respect to public service prices, which also have a large weight, there are various factors that constrain price bis central bankers ’ speeches increases. one such factor is the norm applied to prices by those who are reluctant to tolerate a hike in fees for public services. in consideration of all these factors, it is highly uncertain whether or not an increase in service prices will offset an expected drop in the year - on - year growth rate of goods prices, resulting in a higher growth or a similar rate of growth in overall prices. although people ’ s inflation expectations over the medium to long term are relatively stable, their expectations over the short term have been affected in a backward - looking manner by the recent price trend that reflects energy price movements. this is clearly apparent in firms ’ inflation expectations indicated in the tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in

on the real economy - - was an acute disease, so to speak, so it was clear what solutions should be prescribed. meanwhile, the problem that has emerged recently can be described as a chronic disease, given that dollar - denominated debts built up by emerging economies, including china, and commodity - exporting economies during the period of monetary easing in the united states are coming to the fore again as a debt overhang issue since the start of a liftoff by the federal reserve. it will probably take a long time before this problem can be cured. looking back at developments in the world economy during the recent period, the annualized growth rate of the u. s. economy, which is the driving force of the world economy, was a low 0. 8 percent in the january - march quarter because of the sluggishness in industrial production accompanying the appreciation in the u. s. dollar and the decline in commodity prices and because of unfavorable weather conditions in the winter. according to the nowcast by regional bis central bankers ’ speeches federal reserve banks and other forecasts, the growth rate appears likely to be somewhat higher in the april - june quarter. however, the u. s. employment statistics for april, the latest month for which the data is available, showed a slight slowdown in employment after a period of firm growth. with the economic recovery phase about to enter its eighth year, the economic cycle is presumed to be gradually reaching maturity. therefore, at the beginning of the year, there were even voices of concern over a possible economic downturn. although such fears have proved unfounded, there is the risk that productivity growth will be sluggish as business fixed investment continues to lack momentum amid the prolonged slowdown in emerging and commodity - exporting economies. under these circumstances, i am paying attention to the risk that a squeeze on firms ’ profit margins may affect employment, income, and consumption if wages increase too rapidly relative to the productivity growth because of tight labor market conditions. meanwhile, the chinese economy is generally regaining stability despite a slight slowdown mainly in exports and production, as the effects of the economic stimulus measures taken by the authorities are apparently starting to appear. the exchange rate of the chinese yuan, which became a source of the instability in the global financial markets since last year, has recently stayed stable and the stock market is also in a state of calm. the somewhat moderate decline in the yuan ’ s effective exchange rate following the recent pause in the rise