samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
bankers'speeches

plots ” that show the fomc participants ’ modal outlooks for the short - term rate trajectory. if the participants were to provide confidence bands around their paths, they probably would be very wide because the economic outlook is uncertain and the linkage between the instrument of monetary policy – the federal funds rate target range – to financial market conditions is loose and variable. in conclusion, i believe that the fomc is continuing to make progress towards our dual mandate objectives. however, i have become somewhat more uncertain about the growth outlook given the lack of a sharp rebound in economic activity in recent months from the weak first quarter. with respect to inflation, as long as we see further improvement in the labor market and anchored longer - term inflation expectations, i am somewhat less worried that inflation will stay too low. thus, i continue to expect that monetary policy normalization is likely to begin later this year. thomas laubach and john williams ( 2003 ), “ measuring the natural rate of interest, ” review of economics and statistics 85 ( 4 ), 1063 – 70. the frbny dsge model also estimates that the natural rate of interest is currently close to zero. see marco del negro, marc giannoni, matthew cocci, sara shahanaghi and micah smith, why are interest rates so low? liberty street economics blog, may 20, 2015. with the benefit of hindsight, one could argue that the federal reserve should have raised short - term interest rates more aggressively over this period. bis central bankers ’ speeches longer - term, i expect that the trajectory of short - term interest rates after lift - off will likely be relatively shallow. this is due, in part, to my reading that monetary policy today is not as accommodative as one might think judging just from the level of short - term rates. but, the path will ultimately be determined by how the economic outlook evolves and how financial market conditions respond to monetary policy. i expect that there will be many twists and turns in the road ahead. as we make this journey, i will do my best to explain what i am seeing and how i think i might react as conditions change in the future. thank you so much for your kind attention. i would be happy to take a few questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches
reuters datastream and bank calculations. note : uk data refer to lending to non - financial corporates by uk resident monetary financial institutions ( mfis ) for 2018q1. german data refer to lending to enterprises and the self - employed by germany resident banks in 2018q1. table 7 : british business bank vs. kfw dimension age total assets assets as a share of annual nominal gdp employees british business bank 4 years £1. 4bn kfw 70 years ( from 1948 ) €472. 3 billion < 0. 1 % 16 % 6, 284 sources : british business bank, kfw group, ons, eurostat and bank calculations. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches

thomas jordan : swiss national bank ’ s monetary policy decision and assessment of the economic situation introductory remarks by mr thomas jordan, chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the media news conference of the swiss national bank, berne, 18 june 2015. * * * ladies and gentlemen it is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the swiss national bank ’ s ( snb ) news conference. as usual, i shall begin by outlining the governing board ’ s monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. this will be followed by jean - pierre danthine ’ s presentation of our annual financial stability report and fritz zurbrugg ’ s comments on financial market developments. after that, we will be happy to take your questions. monetary policy decision let me begin with our monetary policy decision. the snb has decided to leave the target range for the three - month libor unchanged at between – 1. 25 % and – 0. 25 % and interest on sight deposits at the snb is to remain at – 0. 75 %. negative interest rates in switzerland make holding investments in swiss francs less attractive and will help to weaken the swiss franc over time. overall, the swiss franc is significantly overvalued. in formulating our monetary policy, we take account of the exchange rate situation and its impact on inflation and economic developments. we will therefore remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, in order to influence monetary conditions. our new conditional inflation forecast does not differ greatly from the one we presented in march. inflation will reach its low point in the third quarter of 2015, at – 1. 2 %. for the subsequent period, the new inflation forecast is slightly higher than in march due to the rise in oil prices. the short and medium - term forecast is up slightly, by 0. 1 percentage points to – 1. 0 % for 2015 and to – 0. 4 % for 2016. the forecast continues to indicate that inflation will move back into positive territory at the beginning of 2017 ; there will be a slight slowdown in the rate of increase as the year progresses. the inflation forecast for 2017 is down by 0. 1 percentage points, to 0. 3 %. the conditional forecast assumes that the three - month libor will remain at – 0. 75 % over the entire forecast horizon, and that the swiss franc will weaken. global economic outlook as our inflation forecast is heavily influenced by economic developments abroad, let me
committed to create a robust regulatory environment where innovation can thrive within. thank you for being here and for your continued commitment to responsible innovation and value creation. let us embark on this journey of " innovation reimagined " together. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

change their focus in order to generate revenue. attention has switched to the liabilities side of the balance sheet as the banks seek to make best use of the large amounts of surplus funds that have built up. banks have been managing down the cost of their liabilities in order to improve deposit margins. they have been helped by a switch by customers from time deposits to savings and current accounts as the opportunity cost of holding liquid balances has fallen. by some reckonings surplus deposits in hong kong are the highest in the world in relation to gdp. a lot of these funds have been invested in increased holdings of debt securities, which now account for about 22 % of the total assets of retail banks compared with only 8 % at the end of 1997. the upward sloping yield curve has encouraged this process and made it profitable. another approach adopted by a number of the retail banks has been to develop sources of non - interest income by moving into the wealth management business. this means using the branch network to cross - sell products like mutual funds, insurance and securities to the client base. these relates to “ retail banks ”, which comprise all locally incorporated banks and branches of foreign banks which are active in retail and commercial banking in hong kong. efforts are paying off, particularly for the larger banks, and are now having a discernible impact on the bottom line. a less successful aspect of the increased emphasis on the consumer has been the foray by a number of banks into the credit card business. prior to 2002, this provided the only area of buoyant lending growth in hong kong. in retrospect, this should perhaps have flashed more of a warning signal, but with credit card receivables starting from a very low base, it was not surprising that the amount outstanding should expand rapidly. the quality of the card portfolio actually held up well for some time. but the cumulative effects of deflation, rising unemployment and increasing indebtedness were taking an increasing toll. coupled with the delayed impact of the more permissive bankruptcy regime introduced in 1998, these factors produced an explosion of personal bankruptcies in 2002. bankruptcy petitions jumped to almost 27, 000 in that year and the charge - off ratio for credit cards rose to 13. 25 %, compared with 5. 46 % in 2001. in the first quarter of this year, the bankruptcy situation seems to have improved a bit, with the number of petitions falling to 6, 119. credit card charge - offs have also shown signs of slackening off
tiber - eu framework 8 european commission, digital operational resilience framework for financial services : making the eu financial sector more secure, consultation document. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

jean claude - trichet : hearing before the economic and monetary affairs committee of the european parliament speech by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank, before the economic and monetary affairs committee of the european parliament, brussels, 10 september 2008. * * * madame la presidente, mesdames et messieurs les membres de la commission economique et monetaire, je me rejouis de ce troisieme echange de vues avec votre commission au cours de cette annee. je commencerai mon intervention par une evaluation de la situation economique et monetaire, en expliquant les raisons sous - jacentes a nos recentes decisions de taux. je me pencherai ensuite sur les developpements sur les marches financiers en vous donnant de plus amples informations sur les operations de politique monetaire que la bce a menees face aux tensions demeurant sur le marche monetaire. des weiteren freue ich mich das von ihnen aufgeworfene thema der interdependenz zwischen den vereinigten staaten von amerika und der eurozone zu erortern. zudem mochte ich naher auf die entwicklung der wettbewerbsfahigkeit innerhalb der eurozone eingehen. abschließend erfolgt ein inflationsausblick auch im hinblick auf ihre frage, ob eine phase hoherer preissteigerungsraten vor uns liegen konnte. economic and monetary developments since my previous appearance before the european parliament on 9 july when i presented the ecb ’ s annual report for 2007, annual inflation rates have remained at high levels well above those consistent with price stability. this is mainly the result of both the direct and indirect effects of past surges in international energy and food prices. in addition, upside risks to price stability over the medium term have continued to prevail in a context where the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be strong. looking ahead, inflation in the euro area is likely to remain high for quite some time, moderating only gradually during the course of 2009. according to the latest ecb staff projections the average annual inflation rate is foresee
the woods as recent events attest. moreover, we have not yet put in place the strengthening of the international financial architecture that would enable us in the future to place less reliance on the imf to deal with potential systemic crises. thus it is better to have the imf fully equipped if a quick response to a pending crisis is essential.

research - based universities on the scale of the best elsewhere in order to exploit our comparative advantage in the english language and regain britain ’ s place at the frontiers of knowledge? or is it a matter of raising standards of education in schools to enable the workforce as a whole to use the new technology? third, is the existence of overlapping jurisdictions affecting economic performance in the uk and elsewhere - in areas such as tax, competition policy, the regulation of mergers, patents, insolvency law, and recent changes to corporate governance? and can “ economic cooperation ” overcome some of these problems, and, if so, how? with those questions in mind, let me now introduce our four speakers this afternoon. first, niall fitzgerald, chairman and ceo of unilever, who has been instrumental in the recent relaunch of the transatlantic business dialogue. second, donald johnston, the secretary - general of the oecd since 1996, who served in the canadian cabinet during the 1990s. the oecd is conducting a study to quantify the potential benefits of closer economic cooperation between the eu and us. third, john snow, the us treasury secretary, who will be joining us on a video link later in the session. fourth, gerrit zalm, the vice prime minister of the netherlands and finance minister since 1994. so, without further ado, let me turn to niall fitzgerald.
of 3. 6 percent over the last decade. total horticulture production also reached an all - time high of 320 million tonnes, growing at an annual average rate of 4. 4 percent over the last 10 years. india is now one of the leading producers of milk, cereals, pulses, vegetables, fruits, cotton, sugarcane, fish, poultry and livestock in the world. buffer stocks in cereals currently stand at 91. 6 million tonnes or 2. 2 times the buffer norm. these achievements represent, in my view, the most vivid silver lining in the current environment. 5. shifting the terms of trade in favour of agriculture is the key to sustaining this dynamic change and generating positive supply responses in agriculture. experience shows that in periods when terms of trade remained favourable to agriculture, the annual average growth in agricultural gross value added ( gva ) exceeds 3 per cent. hitherto, the main instrument has been minimum support prices, but the experience has been that price incentives have been costly, inefficient and even distortive. india has now reached a stage in which surplus management has become a major challenge. we need to move now to policy strategies that ensure a sustained increase in farmers ’ income alongside reasonable food prices for consumers. 6. an efficient domestic supply chain becomes critical here. accordingly, the focus must now turn to capitalising on the major reforms that are underway to facilitate domestic free trade in 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches agriculture. first, the amendment of the essential commodities act ( eca ) is expected to encourage private investment in supply chain infrastructure, including warehouses, cold storages and marketplaces. second, the farmers ’ produce trade and commerce ( promotion and facilitation ) ordinance, 2020 is aimed at facilitating barrier - free trade in agriculture produce. third, the farmers ( empowerment and protection ) agreement on price assurance and farm services ordinance, 2020 will empower farmers to engage with processors, aggregators, wholesalers, large retailers, and exporters in an effective and transparent manner. with this enabling legislative framework, the focus must turn to ( a ) crop diversification, deemphasising water - guzzlers ; ( b ) food processing that enhances shelf life of farm produce and minimises post - harvest wastes ; ( c ) agricultural exports which enable the indian farmer take advantage of international terms of trade and technology ; and ( d ) public and private capital formation in the farm sector. the committee on doubling farmers income

revolution. can the cii be its spearhead? i leave you with these ideas and dare you to dream. thank you. 1 nasscom : indian start - up ecosystem, 2019 ( november ). 2 economic survey 2019 – 20, chapters 2 and 3, government of india. 3 world development report ( 2020 ), “ trading for development in the age of value chains ”, world bank. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches
season, and the much younger member of staff who would otherwise have to do it would be much better occupied at home with his family. well, that is all i wish to say. i hope you all now understand better why we are having this conference in palle ’ s honour. and i hope you will find it a fruitful occasion professionally as well, as palle would certainly have wanted.

why the current turbulence has primarily affected the interbank markets at the core of our modern global financial system and why this weakness was not foreseen before last summer. because they were focusing on the balance sheets of the regulated banking institutions, observers wrongly underestimated the actual degree of leverage in the financial system as a whole – i mean all the leverage generated not only by the activities of commercial banks, but also by highly leveraged institutions, sivs, conduits, lbo - financed firms, etc ; that is, the leverage of all institutions that, implicitly or not, was predicated on backup credit lines being provided by regulated institutions in times of stress. looking forward i believe that the financial integration that has taken place in the euro zone since the advent of the euro in 1999 has contributed importantly to a remarkable rise in living standards and greater financial and economic stability. it follows that continued financial integration is essential to further the remarkable progress of europe. so the question is : what lessons should we draw from the current financial turbulence that can help to make the future course of european financial integration both stronger and more immune to financial disturbances at its core? i do not pretend to have an answer to this question – at least not yet. but in closing let me offer just four thoughts that are relevant to it. first, firm euro zone monetary policy will continue to play a key role in fostering further european financial integration. the european central bank has shown great success in maintaining an appropriate monetary stance while at the same time fine - tuning its liquidity operations in the interbank market so as to ensure that its overnight rate remains broadly on target, and that monetary conditions continue to be set effectively given prevailing macroeconomic conditions. and the ecb has also been a leading central bank in taking action to address dislocations in the longer - term interbank money markets, even though this has proven difficult to realise given that the term premium comes from banks ’ own uncertainties about liquidity and counterparty risks. my second thought is that there is clearly a need for greater transparency in financial markets on both sides of the atlantic. this can take many forms. one is to reduce product complexity : i expect to see more emphasis on financial assets – including structured products – that have simpler features to make them less illiquid in difficult market conditions. another is more refined rating scales for these assets, giving investors a better sense of their risk characteristics. there are signs that this is already happening in the marketplace,
cooperation. i would be pleased to answer any questions you may have.

currency area eventually. and hopefully, this will happen in the not too distant future. in this regard i wish to mention that two major documents on romania ’ s path to the euro area ( an analytical report and a plan of action ) have been recently completed and have been subjected to the scrutiny and approval of the political parties and the parliament. i was one of the vice - chairs of the national commission which guided the completion of the two documents. i should say that we are not oblivious to what it takes for accession to be a success. no matter how much one wishes to put accession on a fast lane, success hinges on having achieved a critical mass of real and structural convergence with the euro area. the lessons of the euro area crisis remind us starkly this reality. the more robust the euro area turns, as a result of institutional and policy reforms, the better for us. when it comes to reforms of the euro area, i would highlight the respect for rules and their 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches enforcement, on one hand, and the introduction of risk - sharing schemes on the other. among the latter i range a collective deposit insurance scheme ( edis ) which, together with a much stronger resolution fund ( srf ) would complete the banking union, and the introduction of instruments that can help member states deal with asymmetric shocks. a euro area budget does make sense in this respect. let me make a few remarks on the macroeconomic scene in europe. the economic recovery of recent years has been heavily dependent on non - standard operations of the main central banks and very low interest rates. there are still large public and private debts, which are especially burdensome in the euro area – and which complicate the mission of policy normalization, of unwinding special operations of the ecb. fortunately, some countries in our region ( including romania ) enjoy a much better situation in this respect. the very low inflation is prompting some to argue that policy normalization may have to wait still, but perverse effects need not be underplayed. but it is likely that policy normalization – understood as a return to positive real policy rates, will be quite a time consuming process, particularly in europe. major risks persist, or even grow, in the global economy ; they are due to interconnectedness and synchronicity of business cycles, the search for yield that has stimulated big bubbles again, a propensity to resort to protectionism measures ( which adds to fragmentation
. the finance minister of germany proposed a sort of “ quid pro quo ” between edis and the sovereign exposure of the banks. these are elements that we have to explore, but the important issue is to take steps in the right direction in 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches order to complete the banking union and to try to bridge the stalemate of sorts that we now have in europe on how to complete banking union. i would also like to stress the importance of the capital markets union. the capital markets union is going to be key, mainly because of the brexit disturbance. we need to have much more profound, deeper and more liquid capital markets in europe. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

npls. i hope that greek banks will find the means and the instruments necessary in order to continue disposing of the npls. from your long experience as finance minister of spain and your participation in the eurogroup from 2011 to 2018, in a particularly difficult period for greece, what does the greek government need to do in order to persuade its european partners to achieve a reduction of the primary surplus targets for 2021 – 22? first of all, i don ’ t want to lecture anybody. each country is different. i think that the greek government knows perfectly well what it has to do. but i think there are two recommendations that are valid for every european country. the first is to be competitive, and the greek economy is now competitive. the second is that it is very important to have a banking industry that works. so it is very important to focus on the situation of the banks. fiscal policy is beyond the remit of the ecb. however, a general observation is that once you start making your public finances sounder and better, you start reaping the various benefits. i think that this is something which is happening now in greece. interest rates have fallen significantly, spreads are narrowing and even rating agencies have started to improve their rating of greek bonds and their outlook. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches although there appears to be a detente in the us - china trade war, do you think that it still poses a threat to the european economy? what other risks are of concern to the ecb? the signing of phase 1 of the trade agreement between china and the united states was a positive step and provides some relief from trade policy uncertainty. markets reacted very positively. we will see what happens next. regardless of this trade agreement ’ s various potential implications for europe, it is very important that we defend our rules - based multilateral trade system. we believe it is the key to creating prosperity and wealth all over the world. it ’ s the approach that ’ s supported by the european institutions, and the ecb fully agrees with it. is the ecb concerned about the impact of the coronavirus on the european economy? the outbreak of the coronavirus is an important element that has had a huge impact on equity markets and commodity prices. i think we have to be very prudent. we are in the first stage of this outbreak and know very little about the characteristics of the virus so far. we have quite a lot to learn so it would be a