is so important for overall economic growth. leading indicators for the labor market are pointing to a likely pickup in the pace of employment gains over the course of this year. many new hires are preceded by firms posting job openings. according to the labor department, at the end of october, there were 3. 4 million job openings, up from 2. 3 million a year earlier. as conditions in the labor market start to improve, workers are more willing to quit a job to search for a better job. while the quit rate has been unchanged at 1. 5 percent for the past 8 months, quits as a proportion of total separations increased to 49 percent in october from 41 percent a year earlier. also encouraging, employment in temporary help services has increased by 494, 000 since september 2009. firms often hire temporary workers as a precursor to adding permanent staff. finally, initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to edge downward, indicating that the risk of losing a job is diminishing ( chart 3 ). there are risks associated with every economic forecast. some risks are to the upside, while others are to the downside. an important downside risk for this year is the housing market. recall that the housing market was the epicenter of the financial shock that resulted in the great recession. unlike the real economy, which has shown recent signs of strengthening, housing markets showed some tentative signs of life early last year that gave way to further weakening later in the year ( chart 4 ). this pattern likely reflected in part the conclusion of tax credits supporting housing purchases. bis central bankers ’ speeches of particular note, house prices increased moderately early last year, but resumed their decline as the year came to a close. in october, the corelogic national house price index was down 3. 9 percent from a year earlier ( chart 5 ). house price declines were reported in all but 11 states. house prices in arizona and florida, two of the housing boom states, declined by 8 percent. distressed sales as a fraction of all repeat - sales increased to more than 40 percent after having declined into the low 30s earlier in the year. some housing economists are forecasting house prices to fall by 10 percent or more this year. the growing inventory of defaulted mortgages continues to weigh down any recovery in the housing market. according to the most recent mortgage metric report by the office of the comptroller of the currency and the office of thrift supervision, there were 598, 000 newly initiated foreclosures

deal with the present. the economic environment in which we operate today is a direct consequence of the demographic and productivity shifts taking place. low neutral interest rates are very real, and they ’ re here to stay. conclusion the facts have changed, and so it is time to change our minds also. it is often said that change is hard. but, experience teaches us that it is better to prepare for the future than wait too long. ultimately, failure to prepare often means preparation for failure. 1 united nations, world populations prospects : key findings and advance tables, 2015 revision. 2 antonin bergeaud, gilbert cette, and remy lecat, productivity trends in advanced countries between 1890 and 2012, review of income and wealth, volume 62, issue 3, pp. 420 – 44, september 2016. 3 shigeaki fujiwara, yuto iwasaki, ichiro muto, kenji nishizaki, and nao sudo fujiwara, developments in the natural rate of interest in japan, bank of japan review, october 2016 ; kathryn holston, thomas laubach, and john c. williams, measuring the natural rate of interest : international trends and determinants, journal of international economics, volume 108, supp. 1, pp. s59 - s75, may 2017. 4 thomas m. mertens and john c. williams, tying down the anchor : monetary policy rules and the lower bound on interest rates, federal reserve bank of san francisco, working paper series, may 2019. 5 richard h. clarida, vice chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, the federal reserve ’ s review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications practices, speech delivered at the federal reserve bank of minneapolis, april 9, 2019. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches