data for october point to a weak start to the fourth quarter, survey - based confidence indicators up to december have improved further from low levels, overall indicating a continuation of the gradual recovery in economic activity. looking at 2014 and 2015, output is expected to recover at a slow pace, in particular owing to some improvement in domestic demand supported by the accommodative monetary policy stance. euro area economic activity should, in addition, benefit from a gradual strengthening of demand for exports. furthermore, the overall improvements in financial markets seen since the summer of 2012 appear to be working their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. in addition, real incomes have benefited recently from lower energy price inflation. at the same time, unemployment in the euro area remains high, and the necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and the private sector will continue to weigh on economic activity. the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. other downside risks include higher commodity prices, weaker than expected domestic demand and export growth, and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries. bis central bankers ’ speeches according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation was 0. 8 % in december 2013, compared with 0. 9 % in november. this outcome was broadly as expected and reflected lower services price inflation. on the basis of prevailing futures prices for energy, annual inflation rates are expected to remain at around current levels in the coming months. over the medium term, underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued. at the same time, inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2 %. the risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be seen as broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to higher commodity prices and stronger than expected increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity. turning to the monetary analysis, data for november support the assessment of continued subdued underlying growth in broad money ( m3 ) and credit. annual growth in m3 was broadly unchanged at 1. 5 % in november, after 1. 4 % in october, following two consecutive declines in september and august. annual growth in m1 remained

g. those related to low productivity and the poor functioning of our labour market ). historical evidence of prior european programmes recently analysed by banco de espana experts highlights the presence of substantial synergies between, on the one hand, the implementation of major investment plans and, on the other, the application of structural reforms geared to improving how the main product and factor markets function. 2 the funds could actually also be used to mitigate the costs that these reforms sometimes incur for some cohorts in the short term, in the pursuit of the benefits that they would generate for society as a whole in the medium and long term. again, it would be particularly desirable to properly evaluate the different alternative reforms. to duly nurture the debate and political decision - making, these assessments of the potential reforms must provide a comprehensive analysis. estimations of their overall impact must be complemented with a better understanding of the microeconomic effects, in particular on the population groups most affected by the reforms, and of the impact during the transitional period until the public policies take full effect. these developments will enable the assessment to be better integrated into economic policymaking, by providing thoroughgoing information on the short, medium and long - term effects. the importance of the use of administrative data and making them available to researchers the second element i wish to refer to is the need to have data that inform the decision - making process. 3 data are also the raw material that feeds the evaluation process. without appropriate, 3 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches quality, timely and sufficiently granular data, a good evaluation is not possible. in the private sector they talk about the data economy. new sectors of activity have risen round data compilation and monetisation ; and other, more traditional sectors have seen their competitive dynamics crucially affected by the use of data or by technology, as the changes in the financial sector – to use an example close to home – testify. the public sector cannot fall behind in data processing. greater data storage and processing capacity has increased exponentially the possibilities of extending our knowledge of reality. the general government sector is not impervious to these developments. indeed, as part of its daily activity it amasses a vast amount of information which, once appropriately processed, can be crucial in making a reliable diagnosis of the problems society faces, and also of the most suitable policies to address them. the crossing and sharing of data by the different segments of government increases diagnosis and evaluation capacities in an accelerated fashion. making