example, since late 2007, as the subprime - generated financial turmoil gained momentum, uganda ’ s continued economic expansion has not been adversely affected. in fact, according to uganda bureau of statistics ( ubos ), real economic growth was registered at 9. 8 percent in 2007 / 08 and is projected at 8. 1 percent in 2008 / 09. although direct exposure to crisis - related debt is very limited, vulnerabilities in sub - saharan financial markets may become more exposed. as a result, perceived risks of a protracted us downturn, or even recession, and what that would mean for africa ’ s and in particular uganda ’ s growth momentum may be intensified. the economic slowdown in the us and europe could naturally affect demand for uganda ’ s exports. coupled with the pass - through effects of ongoing price hikes in oil and food - commodities, the harsher external environment today may inevitably place downward pressure on our growth prospects in the immediate period. there may be also an impact from reduced private transfers to uganda especially as industrialized economies take a hit in terms of reduced gdp growth and market liquidity. there is also the possibility of reduced aid flows from developed countries to low income countries. a prolonged poor performance in the industrial economies may also be reflected in reduced interest from offshore players in the ugandan market. however, given our strong and favourable macroeconomic fundamentals, it is expected that foreign direct investment to the ugandan economy will maintain a sustained upward trend. iii. conclusion bank of uganda will continue to closely monitor and assess the possible effects of the ongoing turmoil in the international financial market on uganda ’ s economy and will effect necessary policy actions to ensure overall macroeconomic stability. however, as the country continues to experience robust economic growth, the bank of uganda is always wary of the vagaries of our linkage to the global financial system. in addition, the economic cooperation and integration being pursued both regionally and globally will aid in addressing any effects of the exogenous shocks on the domestic economy.

start saving up now for the higher future tax payments? this is a central question in economic policy, but we ’ re basically without a clue when it comes to finding out what applies. constant focus on the relevance of the statistics released is a challenge for the producers of statistics. there will always be demand for more statistics, but then reality and budget constraints kick in. consequently, it may be necessary to cut down on some statistical areas in order to increase focus on other and more relevant statistics. it is quite a challenge to become constantly better at optimising the use of the available data sources. a case in point is the challenges of registering the growing output in the services sector in a modern economy and capturing internet activity. statistics must be accurate and preferably timely in order to be useful. crises, especially financial crises, often erupt suddenly and sometimes surprisingly. this is a great challenge for economic statistics as they are only available with a certain lag. moreover, the crisis we have just been through was way out on the periphery of the probability distribution. we have not seen the financial markets react as dramatically and globally over the last 60 years as they did during the most recent financial crisis. this undermines the belief that we could have predicted the crisis if only we had had more statistics. for an unprecedented situation it is, of course, no use analysing historical data, believing that you can predict the crisis. the problem was more likely our failure to understand fully the available data. we must become better at understanding the interplay between the financial and real sides of the economy. a lot of research seeks to incorporate the financial sector into theoretical models of the real economy. and we have a long way to go in this area as well. consequently, there is no risk that statisticians will be out of a job right away! thank you for your attention.