downgrade is likely more structural in nature, as it represents the continued adjustment of the sector to global oil prices of us $ 50 – 60 per barrel, rather than the much higher prices of five years ago. this adjustment process is also being reflected in wages and other costs, and in housing market developments in alberta. importantly, as investments in the oil patch are pared back, canada ’ s growth slows. but, when those investment levels stop falling, canada ’ s growth will pick up, even if oil sector investment does not, as other areas of growth come to dominate the data. second, uncertainty about future trade policies has risen again in canada. we have seen subdued business investment in most sectors for the past two years, but were hopeful that the combination of the signing of cusma and the government ’ s accelerated investment incentive would lead to a pickup in investment. while the overall effect remains to be seen, doubts about the ratification of cusma remain a downside risk to our investment outlook. related to this, exports have started 2019 on a very weak note. although the data are a bit puzzling, perhaps affected by severe weather, we have taken them at face value in updating our forecast, leaving room for further growth in future months. for both investment and exports, then, we have reason to expect more growth in the second half of 2019. 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches third, we have been monitoring developments in the housing market very closely in order to understand how the effects of local tax changes, changes in mortgage guidelines and past rises in interest rates would play out. in part, the analysis is complicated by the adjustment of previously frothy markets — the greater toronto and vancouver areas — to a significant revision in price expectations. many other markets across the country — such as halifax, montreal, ottawa and winnipeg — are seeing solid activity. this is what would be expected in an economy that is growing, with rising population and a strong labour market. this means that as the situation stabilizes in toronto and vancouver, the canadian housing sector should return to growth overall later this year. on top of this, mortgage rates have eased in the wake of a drop in global bond yields. related to this, home furnishings and renovations were two bright spots in an otherwise dim picture for retail sales at the start of the year. it is worth noting that the retail data may also have been affected by severe weather. fourth, there have been several fiscal announcements since our last report.

release that would give a brief assessment of the economic situation in canada and explain why we chose either to change interest rates or to leave them unchanged. this would also give us an opportunity to link the latest developments more directly to the underlying economic trends in the medium term - the 18 to 24 months over which the effects of monetary policy actions are spread. integrating the information in these eight press releases with our other key monetary policy statements throughout the year would provide a more regular, frequent, and continuous account of our views on the canadian economy. in the end, if the bank does its job of keeping people well informed, we expect that economic analysts, market participants, and the public generally will be clearer about the factors that influence monetary policy and will be in a better position to anticipate the direction of policy. this has certainly proven to be the case in the united states, the euro zone, and the united kingdom. there could, of course, be extreme cases that might call for an immediate policy response from the bank rather than waiting for the next scheduled announcement date. the new arrangements would not preclude such an option. it would be used very infrequently, however, and only under extraordinary circumstances. details of this new approach to announcing interest rate changes will be issued next tuesday and will be posted on the bank ’ s web site, along with an invitation for comments from the public. we plan to implement this system in the autumn, with the first date for interest rate action set for november 2000. concluding remarks to conclude, let me return to my main points regarding our economic situation. the canadian economy has been performing very well in recent years and the bank expects that it will continue to do so. the task for monetary policy is to ensure that the economy stays on an expanding but non - inflationary path. monetary policy faces some challenges in the period ahead - challenges arising from several uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook. the key uncertainty is the future performance of the us economy and the implications for canada. from this perspective, what matters most is that the us monetary authorities succeed in bringing their high - flying economy onto a more sustainable track. another important challenge for monetary policy will be to keep demand and supply here at home in balance at a time when the application of new technology may well be transforming canada ’ s economy and moving it onto a higher growth path. but we are not sure of that yet. while the recent productivity gains are encouraging, it is too early to tell if this