remarks by luigi federico signorini at the presentation of the bank of italy ’ s report on economic developments in lombardy luigi federico signorini deputy governor of the bank of italy milan, 5 july 2017 italy has emerged from the longest and deepest recession in peacetime memory. slow and hesitant at first, the recovery is gradually strengthening, and for two years now the trend has been clearly positive. of course, the road ahead is still long and fraught with uncertainty. notwithstanding its recent growth, italy ’ s gdp remains seven percentage points below the level of early 2008. spain ’ s is about to reach that level, while france and germany have already outstripped it by five and eight points respectively. nor should the risks on the horizon be underestimated. and yet, even taking account of the lost ground that will be difficult to make up, recent economic developments have been undoubtedly favourable. in the first three months of this year italy ’ s gdp grew by 0. 4 per cent, exceeding the expectations of the leading forecasters. exports have continued to expand. in the last few years the growth in italian export sales has outpaced that in demand from outlet markets. this was not the case between 1999 and 2009, when italian firms struggled to keep up with competition from emerging economies and even from the other developed countries. the improved export capacity of italian firms has been especially important as it has supported gdp growth in the most testing times of the crisis. since 2010 italy ’ s market shares have stabilized. since 2013 there has been a surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. italy ’ s net foreign debtor position has diminished rapidly in recent years, from 25 per cent of gdp in 2013 to 15 per cent at the end of last year. the investment - to - gdp ratio had shed five percentage points since 2007, when in 2014 it hit a postwar low of 17 per cent. the fall in investment was one of the most conspicuous signs of the crisis : the poor economic outlook discouraged it and its collapse in turn lowered gdp and productivity, making the outlook even worse and triggering a vicious circle. years of low investment led to fixed capital not being renewed, lowering production capacity and contributing to weak gdp growth on the supply side too. however, little by little since 2014 investment has recovered, though the trends by sector and type vary greatly. purchases of capital goods – machinery, equipment and transport equipment – have risen by almost 11 per cent in the last three years : as a share of gdp

28th assiom forex congress speech by the governor of the bank of italy ignazio visco parma, 12 february 2022 economic outlook, inflation and monetary policy in 2021, the world economy recovered more than expected. economic activity delivered a positive surprise in italy as well, with gdp growing by 6. 5 per cent. in recent months, growth has been curbed by the new wave of infections, but it is expected to pick up again starting in the spring with the gradual improvement in the health situation. at global level, according to the latest scenario published by the international monetary fund ( imf ), gdp will expand by 4. 4 per cent in 2022, half a percentage point less than was forecast in october. in the short term, risks are mainly on the downside ; besides being influenced by the course of the pandemic, these risks stem above all from the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the impact they could have on the cost of commodities, especially energy products, and on trade in intermediate inputs along global value chains. according to our latest estimates, italy ’ s gdp growth will near 4 per cent this year on average, and will then slow in the next two years. since the second half of 2021, a significant, and for the most part unexpected rise in inflation has been observed in several countries. on the supply and cost side, this has been due above all to the steep increase in fossil fuel energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks and the rise in international transport costs. in the united states, a role was played by the strong growth in demand and the rise in wages, in part connected with the exit of many previously employed persons from the labour force. pressures on the final prices of goods and services will likely be stronger than initially estimated, but should abate in 2023. in the euro area, twelve - month inflation reached 5. 1 per cent in january, the highest level since the start of the monetary union. rising energy prices contributed directly for more than half of this figure : even net of the most volatile components, the increase recorded since the second half of 2021 has largely reflected higher energy costs. differently than in the united states, consumer price pressure due to the recovery in production activity, which today is not far from 2019 levels, has been modest so far. the rise in natural gas prices has been exceptional ; though they declined after peaking in december, in europe they are still almost seven times what they were in early 2020. this is a