projection horizon. finally, it uses as a working assumption that public expenditure will follow a trajectory consistent with the fiscal rule and the administration ’ s announced budgetary consolidation path. the process of growth normalization will be slow. of particular concern is the behavior of investment, which the baseline scenario estimates will drop for the third year in a row. indeed, this year several indicators, among which the survey of the capital goods corporation, the levels of imports of capital goods and business confidence, anticipate a further drop in investment. moreover, the housing sector will have a limited performance after being highly dynamic in 2015, and public investment will follow a trajectory consistent with the objectives of fiscal consolidation. however, towards 2017 non - mining investment should restart growing at a pace matching the recovery of the overall economy ( figure 4 ). about the current account, we believe that this year ’ s deficit will be smaller than we thought in march and will show no big changes in 2017. in particular, the trade balance outperformed the march forecast in the first quarter, driven mainly by volume exports of goods, especially copper, and tourism - related services. furthermore, a slowdown in capital goods imports is expected because of adjustments in investment. in addition, there are generally upward revisions to non - copper export prices. consumption, meanwhile, continues to grow at around 2 percent. details of the domestic economy ’ s baseline scenario are shown in table 1. in this context, we foresee further adjustments in the labor market in the coming quarters. lately, annual growth in salaried employment slowed down significantly, to 0. 5 percent in the last moving quarter. the national unemployment rate has adjusted more gradually, thanks to increased self - employment, so it is still low by historic patterns ( figure 5 ). by regions, in the north of the country unemployment has risen more sharply than in other areas. firms interviewed for may ’ s business perception report – a quarterly publication of the bank – reveal increased labor availability together with lower wage claims. looking into the march survey of the university of chile, we also see an increase in the unemployment rate in greater santiago, to 9. 4 percent, confirming the weakening of the labor market. the evolution of employment and real wages, which have slowed down in annual terms in the last year, implies slower growth in the wage mass. this, coupled with still low household expectations, is consistent with positive, yet moderate, growth in consumption ( figure 6 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches turning

david opiokello : basel ii and its impact on financial services in uganda address by mr david opiokello, acting deputy governor of the bank of uganda, at the opening of the 6th east african banking school, kampala, 3 july 2006. * * * background i am pleased to speak to you this morning at the 6th east african banking school annual seminar. since launching the banking school, the annual school is increasingly becoming a prestigious regional event for bankers and all other key players in the financial services sector. this is yet another commendable contribution towards capacity building and harmonization efforts within the financial sector of the east african sub - region. it is incumbent upon all of us stakeholders to continuously review the standards set by the school to ensure that we not only maintain but strive to improve them going forward. on behalf of governor e. t. mutebile, the patron of the uganda institute f bankers, i would like to formerly welcome the invited resource persons in their respective capacities and all distinguished participants. the subject i was asked to speak on namely “ basel ii and its impact on financial services is a complex one and i wish to state from the outset that the implementation of basel ii remains very much “ work in progress ”. briefly, the basel committee on banking supervision ( “ the committee ” ) issued a revised capital adequacy framework which is widely called basel ii in june 2004. this framework has been endorsed by the central bank governors and heads of banking supervision of the g - 10 countries. the group of ten ( g - 10 ) is made up of eleven ( 11 ) industrial countries namely ; ( belgium, canada, france, germany, italy, japan, the netherlands, sweden, switzerland, united kingdom and united states ). the committee believes that the revised framework will promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry worldwide. the new accord is designed mainly for internationally active banks and is to be implemented as of year end 2006. however one year of impact studies or parallel calculations has been allowed for the most advanced approaches to be implemented as of year end 2007. the committee recognizes that the adoption of basel ii may not be the first priority for the nong10 countries. furthermore the imf and world bank are of the view that future financial sector assessments will not be conducted on the basis of adoption of or compliance with the revised capital framework. rather, assessments will be based on the countries performance relative to the requirements of the committee ’ s core principles for effective banking