jean - claude trichet : interview with le monde interview by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank, conducted by mr pierre - antoine delhommais and mr arnaud leparmentier, 17 november 2009. * * * the euro area economy grew by 0. 4 % in the third quarter. is the crisis over? after the second quarter figures, which were still slightly negative, this positive growth confirms that we have indeed come out of the period of free fall which characterised the six months following the collapse of lehman brothers. the figures confirm our baseline scenario, that of a progressive and gradual revival of the economy. what we are now observing is more favourable than we projected some months ago. that said, we must remain cautious. there is still a lot of uncertainty, as much at the global level as at the level of the euro area, particularly concerning next year ’ s growth. we cannot yet claim victory. is there a risk of a relapse, like in 1937 after roosevelt ’ s first stimulus plan? uncertainty, as i said, is an important characteristic of the period that we find ourselves in. we have observed, in recent past, the eruption of events which were unforeseen in terms of their severity. we observed also during the six - month period of global economic free fall that the decisionmakers could not rely on reliable analytical instruments. in particular the central bankers noted during this period that economic reality was rendering obsolete, week after week, the analyses and projections of the most tried and tested models. throughout this period we had to rely mainly on the wisdom and experience of our collegiate decision - making authorities. today we have regained a reasonable level of confidence in our analytical tools. but a great deal of uncertainty remains. we are seeing differences in growth between the different countries of the euro area, for example between france and germany, which is recovering more quickly. is this not worrying? for the governing council of the ecb, what matters is the euro area as a whole. it is for this area that the governing council has responsibility for issuing the single currency ; an area made up of sixteen countries inhabited by 330 million european citizens. what matters is the interest of an entire continent, in the same way as the us federal reserve disregards the differences between massachusetts, california or missouri, which are nonetheless significant. the quantitative divergences in the euro area are no different in nature from those observed among the different states in the us. furthermore,

just of the united states, but of the entire international community. i noted with great interest yesterday the comments of my colleague ben bernanke at the economic club of new york. i quote : “ the federal reserve will continue to monitor these developments closely. we are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. our commitment to our dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the us economy, will help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability ”. this is a very important statement from my colleague, with whom i have a very good relationship. is the euro set to replace the dollar as a reserve currency? the euro was not created to compete with the us dollar or to replace the dollar as international reserve currency. it was created in order to complete the single european market and to bring stability and prosperity to europe. the success of the euro in deepening the single market for the past 11 years has been remarkable. imagine what the single market of the united states would be like if there were different currencies in california, florida and new york state. the ecb does not campaign for the international use of the euro. we let economic agents and investors make their own decisions. were the root causes of the crisis economic or financial? the trigger was clearly financial. the financial sphere had generally underestimated the risks. more than six months before the crisis erupted in august 2007, i myself, speaking on behalf of my colleagues, the central bank governors, warned of the probability of a major market correction owing to the fact that risk was being underestimated, in terms of both quantity and price. given the extremely close links between the financial sphere and the real economy, the entire system was potentially unstable, as we have seen. the decision - makers at the global level have a fundamental responsibility : we must make the financial economy and the real economy at the global level much more resilient and much less vulnerable. is the g20 the starting point for the response? in historical terms, the current period is marked by a very profound change in global governance. the fact that the g20 has become the leading authority for governance at the international level is fundamental. do not forget that the structure of the g20 was set up following the asian financial crisis. at that time the industrialised countries considered that if a medium - sized