at 5. 1 percent in 2006 and 4. 9 percent in 2007. this is the first time since the early 1970s that the global economy has registered and is expected to continue to register high growth of around 5 percent over a period of some years. looking at the growth rates of individual countries, the developed economies have not necessarily been growing faster than in the past ; rather, the countries contributing to the current high growth are the emerging economies that have taken off, one after another, as economic globalization progressed. these countries have increased their overall presence in the global economy and have contributed greatly to the high global growth rate. asian emerging economies in particular have enjoyed high growth rates for many years, and their share in the global economy has increased so much that they have become an engine of global economic growth. this is evident from the imf's latest projection of world economic growth, which was revised in september. based on a substantial upward revision of the growth projection for asian emerging economies, the projected growth rate of the world economy has been pushed up despite the downward revision of the growth projection for the u. s. economy. ii. the current state of the japanese economy i would now like to turn to the current state of the japanese economy. the current phase of economic recovery began in january 2002. in november, it will have lasted for four years and ten months, exceeding the izanagi boom, the longest postwar economic expansion ( 57 months during 1965 - 70 ). looking at recent economic developments, exports have continued to increase against the background of the expansion of overseas economies, which i have just outlined. by destination, exports to the united states have maintained their steady growth as a whole, although growth in automobile - related goods has slowed somewhat. exports to europe and east asia have continued their solid increases, and those to other regions, particularly the oil - producing countries, have registered high growth. corporate profits have been high despite the surge in prices of raw materials such as crude oil. large manufacturing firms in particular have made successive upward revisions to their profit estimates due to the increase in exports coupled with the depreciation of the yen. in this situation, business sentiment remains favorable and business fixed investment continues to increase. according to the september tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in japan ) conducted by the bank's research and statistics department, if firms'business plans for fiscal 2006 are realized, current profits will register growth for the fifth consecutive year ( since 2002 ), and business fixed

a broader range of regions. these views are generally comparable with the imf's world economic outlook and forecasts by other international organizations and private research institutes. global economic growth is likely to remain robust even with a modest slowdown in the u. s. economy, as the growth of emerging economies has increasingly become self - sustained. recent developments in japan's exports show that goods, particularly capital goods and automobiles, in which japanese firms have a competitive edge, are being exported to an increasing number of countries. according to the september tankan, firms perceived overseas demand for japanese products as exceeding supply in the current period and continuing to do so in the future. this implies that at this point firms do not feel that the slowdown in u. s. economic growth will substantially affect overseas demand for japanese products. however, if a greater - than - expected downward adjustment in housing prices occurs in the united states, it may lead to lower growth rates in the u. s. economy via, for example, a deceleration of growth in private consumption. if the pace of u. s. economic growth decelerates unexpectedly, adjustment pressure may build up in the it - related sector. global demand for it - related goods has so far been on a steady uptrend due partly to the rapid growth in emerging economies, such as the bric economies ( brazil, russia, india, and china ). however, the pace of global increase in the supply of itrelated goods has also been rapid, and thus if downside risks to the outlook of the u. s. economy materialize, the balance between supply and demand of it - related goods may be disturbed. in addition, inflation expectations may rise, if the u. s. economy does not slow considerably in a situation where resource utilization, namely in production capacity and labor, is high. one of the factors supporting the sustained expansion of the global economy is the continuing stable financial conditions and generally subdued inflationary pressures due at least in part to the appropriate conduct of monetary policy in countries around the world. any changes to the picture may adversely affect the global economy, and be accompanied by shifts in international capital flows and repricing in financial markets. with the fall in crude oil prices, it is becoming increasingly likely that inflation pressures in the united states will gradually ease as economic growth decelerates moderately. however, risks in the united states of a slowdown in economic growth or an acceleration in the inflation rate still require attention