be to preserve macroeconomic stability while maintaining the soundness of the financial system as this has been key to address adverse shocks in the past as well as to create a solid basis to achieve a sustainable economic growth. as a conclusion, allow me to summarise with the following points : as we have and will be discussing these days in different forums, our economies are, again, vulnerable to external shocks arising from other regions. even though we have made significant improvements, particularly regarding the strengthening of the economic fundamentals of our economies, which is reflected in a lower volatility of the main macroeconomic prices including lower inflation rates, bis central bankers ’ speeches strengthened financial systems, more sound fiscal balances, improvements in productivity and so on, we are not exempt, now and in the future, from experiencing these kind of shocks that at the end affect not just economic and financial variables but most important the well being of our populations. as policy makers, we have the responsibility to preserve those economic fundamentals and to come up with policy actions that may reduce their negative impact, or even better that could make our economies less vulnerable to their effects. in this context, i am glad to be here and looking forward to the discussion of our challenges as we may come up with specific policy actions that may be needed now or in the future to address these challenges. thank you very much for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches

edgar barquin : recent economic trends and policy issues presentation by mr edgar barquin, president of the central bank of guatemala, at the jp morgan investor seminar, central america panel, on the occasion of the iadb annual meetings, montevideo, uruguay, 17 march 2012. * * * i would like to thank jp morgan for the opportunity to share my views on this panel. in addressing the recent economic trends in guatemala and the main policy issues, i would first like to highlight some specific features of the current international context that directly affect guatemala ’ s economy. then i will give you a quick overview of recent trends and prospects of guatemala ’ s main economic variables, and finally i will share with you the main policy challenges we are or will be facing in the near future. regarding the current international context, i would like to highlight six elements : first, the deterioration of global economic prospects, which is already being reflected in the weakening of global trade. lower economic prospects are also on the horizon for most latin american countries as well as some key emerging economies such as china and india. second, high frequency indicators suggest a recovery of economic activity in the united states of america, though the sustainability of this recovery is still uncertain due to high levels of unemployment, problems in some key markets such as the housing market, potential risks due to the problems in the euro area and fiscal consolidation issues, among others. third, uncertainty arising from the euro area debt crisis with potential spillover effects to other regions and financial markets. fourth, declining commodity prices that have contributed to easing of headline inflation in most developing countries. however, prices are still high, particularly oil prices. fifth, high levels of unemployment remain in most advanced economies including the united states and the euro area as a whole. and sixth, insufficient progress in developing medium term fiscal consolidation in advanced economies that could deepen global imbalances. regarding recent trends and prospects of guatemala ’ s main economic variables, first of all i would to highlight that the recovery of economic activity continued in 2011 ; in that year, gdp increased by 3. 8 percent, though still below the pre - crisis levels. for 2012 we are expecting a growth rate between 2. 9 percent and 3. 3 percent, mainly due to the impact of the international environment i just mentioned. as regards exports, after experiencing negative growth rates in 2009 due to the crisis, the growth rate in 2011 was the highest of the last 13 years or more, at 23. 6 percent. this performance was mainly