we would even get an extra boost from pent - up demand. for instance, as showrooms reopen, car sales could bounce back, fuelled by a rebound in household income and low borrowing costs. we could see a similar rebound in home resales and home construction, as transactions and projects that were put on hold restart. - 4chart 2 : many paths for the economic recovery are possible real gross domestic product ( gdp ), chained 2012 dollars, quarterly data $ billions 2, 500 2, 250 2, 000 1, 750 1, 500 1, 250 range of scenarios note : the dark grey shaded area refers to the 2008 – 09 recession. sources : statistics canada and bank of canada calculations and projections gdp last observation : march 2020 how close we get to this kind of best - case scenario depends on many factors. there is a risk that the domestic and global recovery could occur in fits and starts, in line with the ebb and flow of the virus and repeated loosening and tightening of containment measures in the months to come. it is also unclear how long it will take for jobs to return after containment measures are lifted. many people have lost their jobs in the shutdown, and this is deeply concerning. there are some reasons for optimism. layoffs are concentrated in the services sector, where during normal times labour mobility is high. that is usually indicative of lower costs of hiring workers ( chart 3 ). once businesses reopen, rehiring for these jobs may be relatively fast if not hampered by high search costs and skills mismatches. the temporary nature of the layoffs coupled with supportive government programs should also make it easier for workers to find new jobs or return to the jobs they had. chart 3 : industries most affected by covid - 19 have higher job turnover 2019 share of employed by job tenure, annual data accommodation and food business and support wholesale and retail information, culture and recreation construction all industries 1 – 3 months professional, scientific and technical other services 4 – 6 months transportation 7 – 12 months forestry, fishing and mining, oil and gas manufacturing agriculture health care education finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing public administration utilities 40 % note : the shares represent the proportion of workers with a given job tenure as a share of employment in an industry. job tenure is measured in months. the larger the share of short tenures, the higher the expected turnover. last observation : 2019 sources : statistics canada and bank of canada calculations canada ’ s dependence on exports

, however, complicates the recovery. many canadian exporters are tied into complex global supply chains. when a factory in canada is ready to resume production, but there are still shutdowns in other parts of the world, there is a risk that customers may not yet be ready to take delivery, or that the factory may not be able to source parts in other regions. indeed, this is what we saw during the initial phase of the outbreak, as factories around the world struggled to source components in china. just as the effects of the pandemic have been highly asymmetric, the recovery process is expected to vary significantly across sectors and regions of the world economy. some industries may quickly resume their growth, while others could struggle for longer ( chart 4 ). how an industry fares will depend on its ability to source labour and capital and on business confidence that demand will rebound. the best - positioned firms are those that were least affected by containment measures or that could offer services remotely. industries deemed essential as well as those that offer substitute products saw high demand during the containment period. these include some health care services and social assistance, grocery stores, food manufacturers and deliveries. in contrast, industries relying on face - to - face contact with the public were hit hard. air transport, cruises, hotels and accommodations and restaurants, for example, are suffering. chart 4 : some sectors will be down for longer while others will suffer a substantial impact in production over time large potential decline of production hotels, food and recreation air and passenger travel retail and wholesale trade manufacturing energy construction small short estimated time to recovery long note : size of bubble corresponds to percentage share of canadian output. sources : statistics canada and bank of canada calculations for different reasons, as i mentioned earlier, the energy sector faces particular challenges. the collapse in demand for raw materials had begun even before the virus hit canada, as the crisis took hold in china — the world ’ s largest commodity importer. most commodity prices fell, but the oil market was most severely affected. while supply was relatively inflexible, demand collapsed and prices fell sharply. this was exacerbated by a price war involving russia and saudi arabia. even with a truce in that conflict, the drop in demand has meant storage capacity is nearly exhausted. for a few hours in april, one major benchmark of global oil prices turned deeply negative. these are the latest troubles for a canadian oil and gas industry already undermined by the drop in prices that occurred