/ key / date / 2019 / html / ecb. sp190916 ~ ca7... 16. 09. 2019 reflections on monetary policy page 4 of 18 sources : eurostat, dg - ecfin and ecb staff calculations. latest observations : july 2019 for retail trade and august 2019 for consumer confidence. the strength of employment growth has been a central feature of the euro area recovery in recent years and, so far, the labour market has been relatively resilient to the current slowdown. employment is still increasing : the number of people employed has risen by 11. 2 million since the employment trough in mid2013. the unemployment rate stands at 7. 5 percent, its lowest level since july 2008. despite some moderation, surveys such as the purchasing managers ’ index ( pmi ) continue to signal positive overall employment growth in the third quarter. for the construction and services sectors, the pmi employment indices remain above their long - run averages, pointing to labour market resilience in sectors less exposed to trade tensions. however, in the more externally - oriented manufacturing sector, employment indicators have been in contractionary territory for four months, illustrating that the euro area labour market is not immune to global developments ( chart 5 ). chart 5 pmi indicator of employment in the euro area ( index level ) https : / / www. ecb. europa. eu / press / key / date / 2019 / html / ecb. sp190916 ~ ca7... 16. 09. 2019 reflections on monetary policy page 5 of 18 source : markit. latest observations in q2 2019 : sector - specific averages of the values in july and august. the continued threat of protectionism and other geopolitical risks, such as the possibility of a disorderly brexit, are clearly weighing on confidence. business investment has been slowing down since early 2018 and was relatively subdued in the first half of this year. the negative effects of persistent uncertainties on the euro area economy are especially evident in the manufacturing sector, which is most exposed to trade developments. let me elaborate on the contrast between developments in the manufacturing and services sectors, which is evident in activity, confidence, employment and price data. the manufacturing sector has been underperforming the more domestically oriented services sector since 2018 ( chart 6 ). the pmi manufacturing output index has been in contractionary territory for seven consecutive months, decreasing to 47. 4 in the first two months of

world. it is the largest economy in eastern europe, the balkans and the middle east, second in the black sea basin and sixth among emerging market economies. unlike most of the new member states at the start of negotiations, turkey already has a functioning market economy, which is far advanced in meeting the economic chapters of the acquis communautaire. this is because of the start of the development of the market economy goes back to 1950, relationship with the eu back to 1963 and the completion of the customs union back to 1995. indeed, turkey is the only country that completed customs union without being a member. in a sense, turkey is more integrated to the european markets than many new members and other candidates. when you look at the current account, turkey has the second largest share after poland in total trade volume towards the eu - 15. and as of august 2005, the share of the eu - 25 in turkey ’ s total exports and imports are 52. 5 percent and 42. 4 percent respectively. furthermore, 52 percent of the total number of tourists visiting turkey so far in 2005 are eu citizens. viewing turkey ’ s capital account, it is noticeable that in the last two years, 85 percent of total foreign direct investment inflows to turkey came from the eu. that figure was 71 percent on average in the last fifteen years. in consequence, the turkish membership to the eu will nourish this close economic relationship further. turkey ’ s membership will not only create a market for the eu in favour of both consumers and firms, but also help the eu to become closer geographically to the middle east, russia, black sea and central asia markets and so increase its competitiveness. as you all know, turkey is an important regional power at the crossroads of important energy, transportation and communication networks. it can also be said that turkey is the only country in the region with the necessary institutional structure and capacity for integrating the region to the world economy through business association networks and partnerships. 6 in addition to this, in terms of the eu ’ s long - term energy policy including petrol, natural gas and water sources, the increasing importance of the middle east and caspian region has made turkey a bridge to the energy sources in the region. with this strategic location, it is in the geo - strategic interest of the eu to have turkey as a member with regard to the foreign and security policies dimensions. and, i believe that the turkish accession will be a strategic opportunity for europe. distinguished guests, despite