and will return to target within the first half of 2024. furthermore, the albanian economy is expected to continue to grow during this period, while balance sheets of enterprises and households are expected to remain - overall - sound. notwithstanding this overview, challenges to transition economies are still present. the transition report accurately emphasises that the geopolitical conflicts and tensions bring inevitable crucial structural changes. first, these conflicts are accompanied by increased migration with long - term consequences in both home and host countries. albania, a country with a rich migration history, has experienced the positive and negative sides of this 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches phenomenon. in one side, this phenomenon has generated foreign exchange inflows and an overall increase of know - how and expertise, which are indispensable for the country's development. on the other side, it dampens the labour force - particularly in its most qualified segments - and harms the long - term growth prospect. for this reason, i think a better coordination at national level is needed, to take care that benefits originating from migration and the free movement of persons are divided at a fair manner between countries. second, the geopolitical tensions are reflected in an increased protectionism, production chain fragmentation and re - orientated foreign direct investment flows towards friendly countries, as well as a decelerated globalisation process. third, the geopolitical tensions reduce attention on structural reforms, which have been and remain the sole instrument for a more rapid and sustainable economic growth. in view of the above, the task of policy - makers, in both national and international level, is to know these challenges and take care for minimising their consequences. in particular, the conduction of structural reforms, which has slowed down since the outbreak of the pandemic across all regional countries, should be restored as a national strategic priority across all transition countries. the implementation of this policy would enable cancelling out the possible negative effects and achieving certain economic benefits. dear ladies and gentlemen, thank you again for your participation and i invite you to contribute in further elaborating and analysing the messages provided in this report. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

in infrastructure, housing, retail, banking, telecoms and tourism continues to accelerate, sustaining growth rates in most sub - saharan african countries. in the year ahead global financial market conditions, in other words global liquidity, are likely to become more challenging. this should, however, be offset by improving growth prospects in the real economy. countries with sound fiscal and monetary positions and those with higher savings rates are likely to benefit from this complex interplay of rising interest rates and improving economic performance in advanced economies. in this complex milieu, south africa ’ s economic performance is disappointing. projected gdp growth of 1. 5 per cent this year will mark the fourth consecutive year of slowing growth. global factors, in particular falling commodity prices and declining global liquidity, are contributing to our below par performance. furthermore, lower demand for commodities from china and slow growth in europe, our major trading partner, have affected our export performance. however, in the main, the reasons for our slow growth are domestic. the five month - long strike in the platinum sector, followed by a month - long strike in the iron and steel industry, resulted in negative spill - over effects for the entire economy. these two strikes reduced manufacturing output and depressed household consumption, which negatively impacted on the performance of retailers, contributing to the downward revision to our growth forecast. strikes are not usually a macroeconomic issue. they tend to occur every few years and are generally settled peacefully and speedily. but in the past two years strikes appear to be longer and more violent, with an apparent breakdown in the tried and tested dispute resolution processes contained in our labour relations regime. without assigning blame to any party for this breakdown, a fraught labour relations environment cannot be consistent with policies aimed at growing labour intensive sectors of the economy. of particular concern are high salary settlements that are out of kilter with inflation and productivity growth. firms often adjust to such salary increases by reducing staff numbers. about 48 000 jobs have been shed in the mining sector in the past two years and more mining companies have announced plans to reduce staff numbers. similarly, in the past few months, the media have reported on planned retrenchments by mtn, telkom and ellerines. in a country with an unemployment rate of 25. 5 percent, this trend has to be of concern to policy makers. the second immediate constraint on the economy has been electricity supply. electricity production has been flat for almost six years. while energy efficiency has enabled many firms and