said, growth outcomes in 2021 and early 2022 generally surpassed expectations. revisions to our mpc growth forecasts were therefore consistently to the upside – in contrast with the pre - covid period, where we were generally revising growth downward. for instance, at that unscheduled april 2020 mpc meeting, we envisioned growth of 2. 2 % in 2021, a number we eventually marked up to 4. 9 %. our estimates of slack in the economy also narrowed over time, mainly because of better - than - expected growth. page - 3 - of 8 in these circumstances, the view of the mpc was that we had provided about the right amount of policy support. our assessment was also that it would be appropriate to start moving away from emergency - level interest rates during the course of 2021. by the fourth quarter of 2021, we had a whole new different. fortunately, unlike some of the advanced economy central banks, we had not committed to forward guidance on interest rates. nor had we changed our framework in ways that made it more backward looking, for instance through average inflation targeting. we also did not have to worry about the sequencing of balance sheet policies, a factor which appears to have complicated timely policy adjustments elsewhere. the path to policy normalisation we started the normalisation cycle with a relatively modest 25 basis point increase at the november 2021 mpc. this was, incidentally, only a few days before fed chair powell said he was retiring the term ‘ transitory ’ for inflation. the sarb ’ s gradual pace of normalisation continued with interest rate increases in january and march of this year. from may, we started seeing evidence of inflation persistence. thus, we accelerated the pace of tightening, to 50 basis points, and then stepped it up further in july, hiking by 75 basis points. those decisions were shaped by a deteriorating inflation forecast, with a strong likelihood of a sustained target breach, starting with the unexpectedly high may print, at 6. 5 %, as well as the june outcome of 7. 4 %. the rand had also begun weakening after a period of resilience. furthermore, inflation expectations were clearly rising, both in survey results and as implied in financial market variables. now that we have got rates back up from 2020 ’ s record lows, the question we face is how quickly we need to get to positive real rates, and ultimately a more neutral stance. in turn, this depends on just how persistent higher inflation will be. here ’ s

francois groepe : opportunities and challenges – the south african national payment system address by mr francois groepe, deputy governor of the south african reserve bank, at the pasa international payments conference, sandton, 25 july 2016. * * * introduction ladies and gentlemen, good morning. it is an honour and a pleasure to address the second pasa international payments conference, and i would like to thank the organisers for the invitation to open the proceedings. the timing of this conference is highly appropriate as we are entering a new phase in the south african payment and financial regulatory environment, coupled with significant changes to the international regulatory architecture and framework. not only do we have to contend with challenges in our domestic environment, but we need to be cognisant of the challenges facing the global economy, such as pedestrian growth, low commodity prices, increased geopolitical risks, and a high degree of market uncertainty and volatility. all these factors combined make the economic and financial environment very challenging and rapidly evolving. this morning, i will take a look at the current payment system landscape, highlighting some of the opportunities and challenges that we can expect to face in the near future and where we, the regulators, would like to see the national payment system in the next few years. legislation, regulation, governance, and the south african national payment system the south african payment system has not escaped the fallout of the most recent global financial crisis. following the crisis, global regulators increased their scrutiny of payment systems and of financial market infrastructures ( or fmis ). this has resulted in numerous regulatory reforms, including legislation to strengthen the financial regulatory architecture. south africa will have new, far - reaching and overarching, financial sector legislation by the end of 2016. from a payment system perspective, it will include the introduction of new and more comprehensive regulations as well as expanded oversight and supervision by various regulators. furthermore, as you are aware, the committee on payments and market infrastructures ( or cpmi ) of the bank for international settlements ( bis ) as well as the international organisation of securities commissions ( iosco ) 1 published new principles for fmis in april 2012. as a result of the new international and domestic regulatory requirements, as mentioned above, it has become necessary to re - evaluate the national payment system act 78 of 1998 ( nps act ). the factors that will have to be taken into account include access and participation criteria, licensing criteria in line with international standards for fmis, the governance arrangements in