in the second half of the year the us current account deficit climbed higher still – to over 6 % of gdp – and thus reaching an all - time high, the global imbalances did not appear to destabilise the greenback. on the whole, however, the real exchange rates are trending very close to their long - term averages ( cf. graph 2 ). against the background of a robust global economy, commodity prices rose yet further, with oil and gold being in particularly strong demand. however, if energy resources and gold are excluded from the equation, raw material prices in dollar terms are at a similar level to the beginning of 2004. while the price of oil receded from its high - water mark in the wake of hurricane katrina to back within the region of usd 60 a barrel, the gold price is trading at a 24 - year high of over usd 500 an ounce. a number of factors have contributed to this increase in price. the physical demand for gold has intensified significantly, rising by about 40 % this year alone in india, which is the largest market. increased demand at the central banks of emerging countries and in oil - producing countries is also being reported. moreover, the currently low real interest rates push down the opportunity costs of interestfree investments, such as gold. given, too, that the gold market is largely illiquid, even small shifts in demand can trigger serious price effects. in view of the fact that implicit inflation expectations are still firmly anchored – according to inflation - protected bonds and surveys – inflation fears can hardly be considered to be the main driver behind this gold price increase. snb ’ s performance taking into consideration the development of the gold price, the snb yielded an average annual return of just below 1 % on its assets between 1980 and 2005 ( end of september ). while interest - bearing assets posted a higher average yield during this period, the snb had to settle for overall losses in gold. the annual yield – including the gold price movements – fluctuated very strongly between minus 25 % and plus 20 %. for the assessment of future developments in earnings, these figures are only of limited significance, however. the level and spread of our earnings are determined by the balance sheet total, the structure of the assets and the achievable financial market yields. since these measures change over time, it is rather difficult to estimate the long - term earnings potential of the snb. at the end of 2004, the national bank ’ s assets

and there are weeks where decades happen ”. the strongest turbulences in the international market were felt in march last year, when the vix index, colloquially also known as the “ fear index ”, reached an almost five times higher level than the average recorded in the previous decade. international investors consequently adjusted their portfolios, which affected sovereign bond markets of emerging economies. in serbia, activity in the dinar securities market almost immediately normalised and the key stabilising role was played by the coordination of monetary and fiscal authorities in defining economic policies and the preserved confidence that the country is run well. ( slide 9 ) the results of regression analyses confirm that we preserved the full efficiency of the interest rate channel in serbia, which means full transmission of changes from repo to 3 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches belibor rates, and then further complete transmission from belibor rates to the interest rates of commercial banks. also, the embi coefficient on dollar debt, which is statistically relevant in all equations, indicates that the fall in lending rates is also aided by the fall in the country risk premium. i will here remind you of our econometric assessment of embi determinants for serbia, which shows that movements of the risk premium for serbia over the long term are not determined by global factors only, but that the fall in the risk premium was also driven by domestic factors such as inflation, fiscal metrics, resolving the issue of non - performing loans, indicators of external position and economic growth. ( slide 10 ) such assessments build also on the conclusion that, thanks to our measures, financing terms for corporates maintained their stimulating character even during the crisis. to what extent corporate financing terms were favourable before the crisis and to what extent they remained so even during the crisis, was estimated based on the financial conditions index. movements in this indicator over a longer term show that all components reflecting economic policy have considerably contributed to favourable terms of financing. nbs monetary policy measures gave the greatest contribution to such movements. further, the increase in serbia ’ s credit rating and the decline in the country risk premium enabled companies also to tap financing in the international market under favourable terms. besides, fdi inflow broadens the spectrum of corporate sources of financing. even in 2020 the majority of these factors continued to exert a positive impact on corporate financing terms, especially favourable terms of financing in the domestic credit market, and the preserved credit activity, thanks to anti - crisis measures of the nbs and