i cannot subscribe to. the only thing i can say is that sometimes i think people in the financial markets have to brush - up on their english lessons to understand when we say nothing yet has been decided for march. it is not our communication which is flawed, it is the hype that is being provoked by people with vested interests. if you would look at what we communicate, i think this is quite clear. the situation has changed since december, we will reexamine and reassess and possibly, if needed, also correct. and we are fully determined to fulfill our mandate. this has been communicated by the ecb and it should be taken for what it is : a strong commitment. but to construct out of this already individual measures, that is speculation. why has the situation changed since december? you highlighted a lot of positive things in the economy. there are several factors which have intensified. one is the oil price, which since december was at one point down close to 40 %, now it ’ s only 20 %. that is something to assess – the volatility – whether you look through it or whether there is a risk of it becoming entrenched. the second is china and other emerging market economies. if we only had the domestic economy, i would not say that downside risks have increased. from the domestic point of view we might be at neutral. what would buying bonds or cutting rates even more into negative territory do for the economy? you ask exactly the questions that we will discuss in march. everything is on the table. is unconventional monetary policy becoming conventional? unconventional measures play an important role. they have been effective, but in a specific circumstance of a very prolonged recessionary and deflationary environment. i do not consider that this is the new normal. if you ask me about secular stagnation, it ’ s a theory that we obviously take very seriously. but to say we accept it as the new normal would not be in line with what the ecb - president has said at his last press conference : “ we continue to fight. ” normally you don ’ t fight the normal, you fight the abnormal. are financial markets becoming too dependent on central banks coming to the rescue every time there is a drop in equity markets? what is moving us is not to support one sector or asset class over another. our mandate is the overall health of the economy. but we need financial markets as a transmission channel. bis central bankers ’ speeches if you

invest. private sector investment has also been lacking. but government does have an important role to play in providing the environment conducive to private sector investment. for example, a notable area where private sector investment has been severely lacking is in the mining sector. this may be due in part to uncertainties created by the regulatory environment, and lack of investment in rail infrastructure which has impeded the ability of the mines to get the ores to the ports. this also illustrates how government investment does not necessarily crowd out private sector investment. to the contrary it can also crowd in investment, as in this example. michael spence sums it up appropriately as follows : “ put bluntly, growth requires investment, and that means present sacrifice for future gain. the job of leaders is in part to get everyone on board, to build a consensus behind a forward - looking vision, underpinned by a growth and development strategy that is credible. multiple classes of participants and organized stakeholders need to be willing participants. these include labour, unions, businesses and entrepreneurs, civil society organizations, and households at various levels in the income distribution. ” it is not only investment in fixed capital that is essential. human capital is as important, if not more so. it is generally recognised that south africa ’ s schooling situation is seriously lacking in various respects, but of equal concern is the lack of training for technical skills. it is an indictment, for example, that south africa needs to import skilled artisans such as welders. germany has a very well established system of apprenticeships, but south africa has gone backwards in this respect. not only does an undertrained and undereducated workforce constrain economic growth, it reinforces the cycle of unemployment and widening bis central bankers ’ speeches inequalities. as michael spence has noted, in a world in which knowledge and connectivity are increasingly the basis for value creation, failures in the educational system are the surest form of exclusion there is. it would be inappropriate for me to conclude without saying something about monetary policy and inflation, and the contribution monetary policy can make to the growth and employment trajectory. we know that unemployment has serious socioeconomic consequences, but so does high inflation. it is difficult to find examples in history where sustained economic growth and high inflation went hand in hand. but it is easy to find glaring examples of high inflation contributing to socioeconomic dislocation. the inter - war years in germany, latin america in the 1980s, and closer to home