nout wellink : the labour market in 2040 – greyer but full of vitality speech by dr nout wellink, president of the netherlands bank and chairman of the basel committee on banking supervision, at the symposium “ demographic ageing : a broader view ”, science center nemo, amsterdam, 11 october 2007. * * * imagine : it is the year 2040. those who turn 32 this year will then be 65 and so are now halfway there. demographic ageing will have reached its pinnacle in 2040. more than 4 million dutch people will then be older than 65, working out at a quarter of the population, whereas that age group now makes up less than 15 %. for every person over - 65, there will be just two compatriots aged between 20 and 65 1. in such a greying society, our cities and towns will look quite different to now. amsterdam city centre is likely to be a largely pedestrian zone, allowing for wider footpaths. political pressure will have forced the monument conservation authority to relax its rules. large groups of older people in the city will have been obliged to remove thresholds, install stair lifts and knock through walls. the two universities in the capital will have been forced to merge because of the smaller inflow of new students. only a handful of the many places of entertainment around rembrant square will still remain, but the classical performances at the concertgebouw and the muziektheater aan ’ t ij will be sold out every night. subsidies for museums may even have been scrapped owing to the overwhelming increase in visitor numbers. and here, in nemo, where today ’ s children make their first discoveries in the area of science and technology, there may be a shopping mall with stores full of books, golfing equipment, spectacles, hobby accessories, fine chocolates and garden tools. of course this is mere speculation. time will tell what life will really be like in 2040. but it ’ s a sure thing that the older people of the future will have a major influence. today we are looking at the economic consequences of population ageing. i want to talk to you about the impact of ageing on the labour market and how we can prepare ourselves for it. labour force in 2040 for a start, the average worker in 2040 will be older than at present and so have more work experience. owing to the rise in the number of pensioners, he will have fewer

work in italy fell by 560, 000 between the second quarter of 2008 and the fourth quarter of 2009, largely among fixed - term and part - time employees and persons who are formally self - employed but in almost every way have the characteristics of wage - earners. the first half of 2010 saw a sluggish recovery, with a gain of 40, 000 jobs. as in other european countries, the impact of the recession was attenuated by large - scale resort to short - time programmes. between september 2008 and august 2010 a total of 1. 8 million hours of wage supplementation were authorized, equivalent to about half a million full - time workers each year. from the onset of the crisis, the government extended eligibility for these benefits to additional workers. the unemployment rate has reached 8. 5 per cent of the labour force, including off - the - books workers. for a fuller assessment of the state of the labour market, many national and international statistical agencies also use other measures of underutilization of labour. in addition to the officially unemployed, such measures also count workers on short - time programmes like wage supplementation, discouraged workers ( those who want jobs and are available to work but have given up active search for a job because they have lost hope of finding one ), and those who have part - time but want full - time jobs. in italy, counting only the first two of these categories, the labour underutilization rate is above 11 per cent of the potentially employable, about the same as in france and higher than in the united kingdom and germany. * * * italy faced the crisis with a budget deficit still close to 3 per cent of gdp and a public debt that, though gradually diminishing, was still high by international standards. the response to the crisis was prudent, and the repercussions on the public finances were smaller than in other countries, thanks in part to the absence of bank bailouts. if fully implemented, the measures of the three - year public finance package approved in july, curbing current expenditure and reducing tax evasion, could bring the debt ratio back onto a downward path. the euro - area countries have responded to the recession of recent months both individually, with fiscal policy measures designed to contain sovereign risk and prevent contagion, and collectively, with new institutions and rules. this demonstration of cooperation, solidarity and firm resolve has consolidated the euro. though the process has not yet been completed, it has shown that the countries