share of the commodity sector in the economy will decline toward its pre - boom level. by 2020, the sector could account for roughly 40 per cent of exports, compared with about in 2015, many of these commuting interprovincial workers returned to their home province. chartered aircraft passenger traffic at fort mcmurray international airport, a proxy for this trend, fell by half between 2014 and 2015. s. s. poloz, 7 january 2016. http : / / mayorofvancouver. ca / news / 2015 - record - year - television - and - film - vancouver. bis central bankers ’ speeches 50 per cent in 2014. similarly, the sector ’ s share of business investment could fall to 40 per cent, compared with 56 per cent in 2014. lower commodity prices will lower incomes and are likely to lower the economy ’ s potential output. this is the result of a number of factors, primarily the drop in investment in the resource sector, but also the rise in the price of imported capital, which negatively affects investment in all industries. with less investment, the country ’ s stock of capital will be smaller than it otherwise would have been, lowering the economy ’ s productive capacity. 13 the extent to which potential gdp is permanently lower will depend on how much capacity is rebuilt in the non - commodity sector. as well, low oil prices could spur companies to innovate and achieve greater efficiencies in their production cycles. we are studying these questions now and will update our estimate of potential output in our april monetary policy report. assumptions and assessments while our modelling exercise laid out a plausible longer - term scenario for the economy, it is subject to many assumptions. three are worth noting : ( i ) the magnitude – whether we have accurately assessed the extent of the declines in business investment ; ( ii ) the timing – both with respect to the pickup of non - commodity exports and the reallocation of labour ; and ( iii ) our assumption of flat oil prices. let me say a few words about our oil price assumption. in the near term, the risks to oil prices appear to be balanced. while elevated inventories still represent the main downside risk, we now have an upside risk in the form of a faster - thanexpected decline in u. s. oil production. in contrast, over the medium term, the risks remain tilted to the upside. the significant reductions in oil investment since late 2014 could leave future increases in global demand unmet

in canadian society since 1935. we ’ re just a little younger than the persons case - next year, we celebrate the 70th anniversary of our founding. and we ’ re keenly aware of our place in this country ’ s civic infrastructure. the bank was founded at a time when this country was struggling to define itself and to survive the economic and social turmoil of the great depression. let ’ s remember that, during the 1930s, canada ’ s economy shrank by more than that of any nation other than the united states and took longer to recover. the depression hit especially hard in western canada - at its peak, an estimated two - thirds of the people in the rural prairies were on some form of government relief. during this time, the first elements of canada ’ s social welfare system were being created. and new social pressures were altering the economic and political life of the nation. in this environment, the bank of canada opened its doors in march 1935, to provide an effective, centralized monetary authority for canada. then, as now, our mandated role has been to regulate credit and currency in the best interests of the economic life of the nation and, generally, to promote the economic and financial welfare of canada. to that end, the bank ’ s monetary policy contributes to solid economic performance and rising living standards for canadians by keeping inflation low, stable, and predictable. we issue bank notes that canadians can use with confidence that they will be widely accepted. the new $ 50 is a good example of that. we also promote a safe, sound, and efficient financial system, and provide funds - management services for the government of canada. our work is hardly the stuff that usually gets people excited. no one has erected a statue to celebrate really effective monetary policy. but no civic infrastructure is more important than one that allows all citizens to have confidence in the value of money and in the soundness of their economy. building a civic infrastructure that promotes social, economic, and political confidence is no easy task. it requires hard work by dedicated individuals. irene parlby was such an individual. her support of the united farmers of alberta, and her subsequent political career, began as a struggle to improve the incredibly harsh conditions faced by women on alberta ’ s farms. as societies have progressed, and economies have become more open and connected around the world, there has been growing attention paid to the ideas of economic, social, and cultural rights. these are part of a larger body of human rights law that developed following world