the matching of job seekers with job vacancies has functioned better than expected and to date this year the wage statistics show increases that, if anything, are slightly lower than expected. during the past year, however, there have been certain signs of incipient tensions between demand and supply. firms are already having difficulties in recruiting some categories of labour. shortages have not yet reached alarmingly high levels in general but each measurement is higher than the previous one. moreover, the situation is more strained in some parts of the country than in others. it also seems to be considered that those in work have increased their negotiating strength. how else is one to explain that, according to the negotiating parties, wage demands in the coming round are higher than on the previous occasion? that at least is the picture which has emerged in recent weeks. could this be a sign that the swedish economy is approaching the point at which the increase in wage costs begins to accelerate, albeit from moderate levels? if that is the case, it can be concluded that, if the present rate were to continue, the swedish economy is moving towards a situation where resource utilisation will be unduly strained. a gradual adjustment of demand to the long - term growth trend can result from a spontaneous slowdown in the economy, for instance because external demand slackens. it could also come from more subdued household demand for durable goods after the extensive purchases in recent years. another possibility is a damper on demand from a diminishing effect of the positive supply shocks that have depressed prices and thereby benefited real wages. to some extent there have been a number of signs of more subdued growth in the rest of the world, above all in the united states. moreover, new statistics suggest that swedish households are not quite as optimistic as before. somewhat weaker car sales may be an indication of more subdued demand for durables. asset prices also seem to be in a calmer phase. all of this may point to some slowdown in the development of demand. but is it enough? it is still a matter of forward indicators and we have not yet seen any clear outcome in the statistics. neither does there seem to be any notable fall - off in labour demand. the number of new job vacancies continues to be comparatively high, at least to date. in the absence of a sufficient slowdown in demand, an adjustment to the long - term growth path will need to be achieved with interest rate increases by the riksbank. it seems to me

i. e. more people choosing to start up companies and companies growing. the entrepreneurs'share of the work force in sweden is low. compared with other oecd countries, sweden was ranked no. 19 in 2000. secondly, we should invest more in knowledge and education, at all levels and for everyone. research belongs here too, as does the link between research and new products - innovations. education promotes both economic growth and individual welfare. the third area can be called the renewal of working life. a good, rich society must make use of the productive force that all people have. to make this possible probably requires new thinking in many areas. so, how about access to capital, this is surely decisive for growth? certainly, but capital seeks to go where it will obtain the best return. attractiveness, an ability to attract and retain investments, is created by entrepreneurs, research & development and competence. in an increasingly globalised market, regions and places compete with one another for investments. the most important factor in attracting investments is tied to people's capacity. the key to growth is human capacity and will. this reasoning can be applied to small places such as trosa municipality, but also to regions and countries such as europe or sweden. the eu competes with the usa ; recently the usa has often been superior with regard to productivity, growth and inflow of capital. an important question for europe is whether the common market, single currency and co - operation can achieve the same degree of dynamism as in the usa. and how to pursue a european welfare policy without losing competitiveness. excessively deep social chasms, extensive crime and social maladjustment could become an internal threat to growth. source : the national social insurance board analyses 2002 : 3 " older people's exit from the labour force - now and in the future. " oecd, dsti / ind ( 2002 ) 11 : " benchmarking : fostering firm creation and entrepreneurship ". even with good microeconomic conditions and a well - tended macropolicy, we will not be able to avoid fluctuations in economic activity ; this is built into the way the economy functions. however, we can subdue the fluctuations through stability and predictability and above all, we can have a different development in welfare than we have had since the 1970s. thank you for listening!