. 8 s. a., ratio s. a., % 1. 7 1. 6 1. 5 1. 4 1. 3 1. 2 1. 1 1. 0 0. 9 0. 8 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 cy85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 sources : ministry of health, labour and welfare ; ministry of internal affairs and communications. cy 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 chart 6 private consumption confidence indicator related to private consumption consumption activity index s. a., cy [UNK] s. a. improved consumption activity index ( travel balance adjusted, real ) cy05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 worsened economy watchers survey ( household activity ) cy 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 notes : 1. the consumption activity index is based on boj staff calculations. figures for the consumption activity index ( travel balance adjusted ) exclude inbound tourism consumption and include outbound tourism consumption. the figure for 2017 / q4 is the october - november average. 2. figures for the " economy watchers survey " are those for the current economic conditions di. sources : bank of japan ; cabinet office. chart 7 outlook for economic activity and prices ( as of january 2018 ) y / y % chg. real gdp fiscal 2017 forecasts made in october 2017 fiscal 2018 forecasts made in october 2017 fiscal 2019 forecasts made in october 2017 cpi ( all items less fresh food ) + 1. 9 + 0. 8 + 1. 9 + 0. 8 + 1. 4 + 1. 4 + 1. 4 + 1. 4 + 0. 7 + 1. 8 + 0. 7 + 1. 8 note : figures indicate the medians of the policy board members'forecasts ( point estimates ). figures for the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) exclude the effects of the consumption tax hike. source : bank of japan. chart 8 consumer prices y / y % chg. introduction of qqe ( april 2013 ) - 1 cpi ( all items less fresh food ) cpi ( all items less fresh food and energy ) - 2 cy10 note : figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate. source : ministry of internal affairs and communications. chart 9 corporate savings amount outstanding of cash and deposits by firm size amount outstanding, tril

covid - 19 waning gradually, but the pace is expected to be only moderate while vigilance against covid - 19 continues. thereafter, as the impact subsides globally, the economy is projected to keep improving further with overseas economies returning to a steady growth path. looking at details of the outlook for each fiscal year, in the second half of fiscal 2020, with economic activity resuming and the impact of covid - 19 waning gradually, the economy is expected to continue picking up, mainly for exports and production, although downward pressure is expected to remain strong in the services industry in particular. thereafter, in fiscal 2021, as the impact of covid - 19 wanes at home and abroad and the growth rates of overseas economies rise, an improving trend in the economy is expected to become evident, partly supported by accommodative financial conditions. in fiscal 2022, the economy is expected to continue growing firmly, with demand at home and abroad increasing in a well - balanced manner. in terms of the medians of the policy board members'forecasts in the october 2020 outlook report, the real gdp growth rate is minus 5. 5 percent for fiscal 2020, 3. 6 percent for fiscal 2021, and 1. 6 percent for fiscal 2022. however, this outlook is based on the assumption that covid - 19 will not spread again on such a large scale that the wide - ranging public health measures will need to be reinstated. it also is based on the premises that, while the impact of covid - 19 remains, firms'and households'medium - to long - term growth expectations will not decline substantially and the smooth functioning of financial intermediation will be ensured with financial system stability being maintained. however, the assumption and premises entail high uncertainties. within the bank's baseline scenario, i support the assessment of the current situation but have a cautious view on the future outlook for the following two reasons. first, i expect that the world trade volume will continue to grow firmly for the time being. at the same time, there is high uncertainty as to whether the growth trend will be maintained through the second half of the projection period given that the rate of increase had been slowing since around the middle of 2018, before the outbreak of covid - 19, mainly affected by the u. s. - china trade friction. indeed, japan's export and production levels had already been on a downtrend prior to the outbreak, which i believe warrant