5 % and 2. 5 % in 2007 and between 1. 3 % and 2. 5 % in 2008. most recent forecasts by international organisations give a broadly similar picture. compared with the september 2006 ecb staff projections, the ranges for 2006 and 2007 are somewhat lower, largely reflecting the assumption of lower energy prices. in this context, let me remind you of the conditional nature of these projections, which are based on a series of technical assumptions, including market expectations for short and long - term interest rates as well as for oil and non - energy commodity prices. in the governing council ’ s view, the outlook for price developments remains subject to upside risks, stemming in particular from a pass - through of previous oil price increases which is stronger than assumed in the baseline scenario, the possibility of renewed oil price increases and additional increases in administered prices and indirect taxes beyond those announced and decided thus far. more fundamentally, given the favourable momentum of real gdp growth observed over the past few quarters and the positive signs from labour markets, wage developments could be stronger than currently expected. therefore, it is crucial that the social partners continue to meet their responsibilities. wage agreements should take into account productivity developments in connection with the still high level of unemployment and positions in price competitiveness. it is also important that wage settlements move away from automatic, backward - looking indexation mechanisms. turning to the monetary analysis, annual m3 growth was unchanged at 8. 5 % in october, remaining close to the highest rates observed since the introduction of the euro, which points to inflationary risks at medium to longer horizons. increasing interest rates have exerted some influence over monetary developments in recent months, although as yet mainly by triggering shifts among the components of m3 rather than constraining the expansion of m3 itself. in particular, the annual growth rate of m1 has moderated somewhat, reflecting shifts from overnight deposits into other components of m3 which offer more market - related returns. more generally, the rate of monetary and credit expansion remains rapid, reflecting the low level of interest rates and the strengthening of economic activity in the euro area. in particular, loans to the private sector continue to grow at double - digit rates on an annual basis, their dynamism remaining broadly based across the household and corporate sectors. in the context of rising interest rates, the growth of household borrowing has shown signs of stabilisation in recent months, albeit at very high growth rates. by contrast, the growth of borrowing by non - financial corporations continues to trend upwards

ida wolden bache : a somewhat faster rise in the policy rate speech by ms ida wolden bache, governor of norges bank ( central bank of norway ), during " arendalsuka ", on the outlook for the norwegian economy and the policy rate decision, arendal, 18 august 2022. * * * accompanying slides of the speech. good afternoon everyone and let me first of all thank sparebanken sør for allowing us to use this lovely building. this was once the arendal branch of norges bank. the branch was closed in 1989, and at that time inflation in norway was on its way down from a high level. today, after a long period of low and stable inflation, inflation is again high. the central bank ’ s role is to ensure price stability and promote economic stability. the decisions we take affect people ’ s finances. i was acutely aware of this responsibility, as were the other members of the monetary policy and financial stability committee, when we convened yesterday to set the policy rate. chart : a somewhat faster rise in the policy rate after thorough discussions, we decided to raise the policy rate by 0. 5 percentage point to 1. 75 percent. the decision was unanimous. this means that we are raising the policy rate somewhat faster than indicated by the policy rate forecast published in june. the policy rate will most likely be raised further in september. our aim is to dampen the pressures in the norwegian economy and bring inflation down towards the 2 precent target. 1 with yesterday ’ s decision, we have reversed the policy rate cuts made at the beginning of the pandemic. let me explain the reasons for our decision. chart : inflation is above target this chart shows two different measures of inflation in norway. headline inflation is shown by the dark blue line. the light blue line shows the rise in consumer prices excluding energy prices and tax changes. this is an indicator of underlying inflation that is intended to capture the longer - term inflation trend. both curves tell the same story : inflation is high. inflation has recently increased rapidly and at a markedly faster pace than projected in the june report. food prices in particular have pulled up inflation through summer, surprising to the upside. high energy prices are adding to the upward pressure on headline inflation. but prices for a range of other goods and services have also increased more than expected. chart : inflation is high in many countries part of the explanation for the high level of inflation can be found outside norway ’ s