that time, the efforts of europe ’ s politicians and central bankers have confounded many sceptics by making the euro an economic and political reality. clearly, the transition to a single currency did not take place in a vacuum. on the contrary, a number of factors shaped the path towards emu. some of these factors had a positive impact. i am referring here, in particular, to the remarkable progress that has taken place in establishing a climate of stable prices throughout the european union. this development undoubtedly reflects the consensus that now exists among central bankers and politicians alike, concerning the appropriate role of monetary policy in the general conduct of economic policy. also, one should not forget the dramatic events of 1989, which not only led to german unification and the fall of the iron curtain but also redefined the parameters of the economic and political environment in europe. yet there were also other factors which, had it not been for the determination of those committed to emu, could have significantly delayed or even derailed the whole process. of these, the ems crisis of 1992 - 93 immediately springs to mind. as a result of this crisis, many of those who already doubted the feasibility of emu became increasingly sceptical as to whether we would actually achieve our stated goal. thus when we consider the events of the last decade in particular, we must appreciate that the driving force towards the introduction of a single currency was, above all, the political will of the actors involved. in this regard, belgium ’ s politicians and its central bankers should be congratulated on the commitment that kept their country at the forefront of the integration process. this commitment could and still can be seen at various levels. at the political level, the policies pursued both by the government and by the bank ensured that the belgian franc became a stabilising force in the ems and that belgium was ready to be a founding member of the euro area. this achievement owes a great deal to the efforts of many persons. i can only mention a few of them, such as former prime minister dehaene, the former governors verplaetse and godeaux, and the present governor quaden, who is often seen as mr. euro here in belgium. equally, sometimes behind the scenes, i should recall the dedication of persons both from the treasury and from the bank for their contributions to monetary union. among them i should like to single out two individuals. the first is jacques van ypersele de strihou who,

narrative of a continued broad - based expansion is echoed in the latest september 2018 staff projections. real gdp is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2. 0 % in 2018, 1. 8 % in 2019 and 1. 7 % in 2020. while risks to growth remain broadly balanced, those related to global factors, including the threat of increased protectionism, the finalisation of the brexit negotiations and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are gaining prominence. turning to inflation developments, euro area headline inflation reached 2. 1 % in september 2018, up from 2. 0 % in august 2018, which largely reflects higher energy costs. based on the latest oil futures prices, headline inflation is expected to remain around the current level for the remainder of the year. according to the latest september 2018 staff projections, inflation is expected to rise to 1. 7 % in 2018, 2019, and 2020, which is unchanged since the june exercise. the stable path masks changes in inflation components, with the decline in the contribution of the energy component over the projection horizon expected to be offset by the gradual increase in underlying inflation. 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches while measures of underlying inflation remain generally subdued, they are increasing from previous lows. as the labour market continues to tighten this should lead to higher nominal wage growth, which in turn should support underlying inflation. overall, we remain confident that the underlying strength of the euro area economy will continue to support the gradual build up of price pressures in order for inflation to return to levels below, but close to, 2 %. yet, much of the medium - term increase in inflation that we predict is based on the premise of quite some degree of monetary policy accommodation. against this backdrop, this month we began reducing our monthly net asset purchases to €15 billion and we continue to anticipate that – subject to incoming data confirming the medium - term inflation outlook – net purchases will cease at the end of this year. that being said, in order to ensure that a sufficient degree of monetary accommodation continues to support the further build - up of headline inflation, the governing council decided to : reconfirm its forward guidance on the likely path of our policy interest rates, whereby rates are expected to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2 % over the medium term ; restate the intention to continue to