and show a gradual increase as the aggregate supply and demand balance is expected to continue improving with the moderate recovery. international commodity prices are currently bearish, partly reflecting concerns over the european sovereign debt problems ; though these prices may follow a moderately rising trend owing to an expected increase in demand for food and energy in line with the growth in emerging economies. assuming that medium - to long - term inflation expectations remain stable, the rate of change in the cpi is projected to gradually rise to a range of above 0. 5 percent and less than 1 percent toward the second half of fiscal 2013. thereafter, it will likely not be too long before the rate reaches the “ price - stability goal in the medium to long term ” of 1 percent for the time being, as specified in the statement released by the bank of japan ( hereafter, bank ) in february 2012. the aforementioned outlook is the scenario the bank considers to be the most probable : it is, in other words, its baseline scenario. as described in detail in the outlook for economic activity and prices, or the outlook report for short, the following four major risks concerning the outlook for economic activity warrant attention : ( 1 ) uncertainty related to developments in overseas economies ; ( 2 ) uncertainty with regard to reconstruction - related domestic demand ; ( 3 ) uncertainty associated with firms ’ and households ’ medium - to long - term growth expectations ; and ( 4 ) issues related to japan ’ s fiscal sustainability. among those risks, i personally am particularly mindful of those relating to adverse spillovers of the european sovereign debt issues and political developments to the baseline scenario. there are mainly two types of price - associated risks. the first type concerns developments in firms ’ and households ’ medium - to long - term inflation expectations ; the second type relates to developments in import prices. with this second type, the possibility exists that crude oil prices will surge, mainly as a reflection of geopolitical risk. if that does occur, japan ’ s terms of trade will experience deterioration, which will squeeze firms ’ profits and reduce households ’ purchasing power, and ultimately it will have an adverse effect on the whole japanese economy. impact of european sovereign debt problems on the japanese economy concerning european sovereign debt problems, the impact can be ascertained mainly by means of three channels – international trade, finance, and exchange rates. with international trade, it would seem that the direct impact on japan ’ s exports has been limited, given that exports to the euro area account for only around 10 percent

david dodge : monetary policy report update opening statement by mr david dodge, governor of the bank of canada, at a press conference following the release of the monetary policy report update, ottawa, ontario, 13 july 2006. * * * today, we released our july monetary policy report update, which discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of canada's inflation - control strategy. overall, the bank's outlook for growth and inflation in canada is largely unchanged from that in its april monetary policy report ( mpr ). growth in the first half of 2006 appears to have been a little stronger than projected, and the canadian dollar has traded in a higher range than was envisaged in the april mpr. the economy is currently judged to be operating just above its production capacity. growth in 2007 - 08 is expected to be a little weaker than was anticipated in the april mpr, owing primarily to the lagged effects of the higher canadian dollar. with some anticipated moderation in u. s. growth, combined with past interest rate and exchange rate increases, the canadian economy is projected to return to its production capacity by the end of 2008. the bank projects economic growth of 3. 2 per cent in 2006, 2. 9 per cent in 2007, and 2. 8 per cent in 2008. total cpi inflation is expected to average just over 1 1 / 2 per cent from mid - 2006 to mid - 2007 with the reduction in the gst lowering the inflation rate by 0. 6 percentage points over this period - and then return to the 2 per cent target and remain there through the projection period. core inflation should also remain at about 2 per cent through to the end of 2008. there are important upside and downside risks to the bank's projection. but the bank continues to judge that these risks are roughly balanced, with a small tilt to the downside later in the projection period because of the possibility of a disorderly resolution of global imbalances. on 11 july, the bank kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 4. 25 per cent. the current level of this policy rate is judged, at this time, to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term. the bank will continue to monitor global and domestic economic and financial developments, including adjustments in the canadian economy, relative to its projection.