problems pale by significance. it is for these reasons that the bank is also investing in its research capacity. for example, in our quarterly inflation report the bank now shows alternative scenarios for inflation and output under different assumptions about how the world works. alongside this, the bank is putting greater effort into developing a pluralist set of approaches to model - building, drawing on other disciplines. operating in the corridor in time, these investments in data and research will narrow the corridor of uncertainty. but for now, the key public policy question is what to do when operating in it? rocket - scientists, of the real rather than metaphorical kind, have a clear answer to this question : avoid really bad outcomes. 7 this is sometimes called a “ minimax ” strategy – the aim being to minimise the chances of the maximum possible loss. it is the policymakers ’ equivalent of the hippocratic oath – “ do no harm ”. so what, then, are these avoidable - at - all - cost scenarios? let me consider three from a potentially long list. they are chosen not because they are probable outcomes, but precisely because they are improbable contingencies against which it would be useful to safeguard, consistent with the hippocratic oath. one adverse scenario is that the economy could stall in its recovery, deflationary forces could set in and monetary policy could be trapped for a protracted period at the zero lower bound. this is not so much secular stagnation as secular deflation. and you do not have to look too hard to find real - world examples. the most widely studied is, of course, the japanese experience since the bursting of its bubble in the early 1990s. in the quarter - century since, nominal gdp in japan has barely budged. and while real gdp growth in japan has averaged 0. 7 % per year since 1997, this has been offset by a persistent fall in prices of, on average, over 1 % per year. similar deflationary concerns, albeit on a lesser scale, have been voiced recently in the euro - area. so how great are these risks in the uk today? at least to my ear, the mood music is different. from its trough, real gdp in the uk has risen by 7 % and nominal gdp by 19 %. uk real gdp has risen at or above trend for each of the past four quarters. it is expected to continue varian ( 2014 ), tuckett et al ( 2014 ). for example

s time to bow out gracefully. of course, as with any departure, there ’ s lots to do to ensure a smooth transition – and i want to highlight three key actions for market participants in the months ahead. https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / speech / 2019 / andrew - hauser - speech - at - risk - live - 2019 - london https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / bank - overground / 2020 / why - do - firms - need - to - accelerate - the - transition - from - libor - benchmarks see ‘ the future of libor ’ section at https : / / www. theice. com / iba / libor and https : / / www. fca. org. uk / news / statements / fca - consults - onnew - benchmark - powers https : / / www. theice. com / publicdocs / ice _ libor _ consultation _ on _ potential _ cessation. pdf https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / pressreleases / files / bcreg20201130a1. pdf and https : / / www. fca. org. uk / news / statements / fca - response - iba - proposed - consultation - intention - cease - us - dollar - libor all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches and @ boe _ pressoffice 1. moving all new business off libor the first priority is to break the remaining grip of libor on new lending and other business as soon as possible before the end of 2021. sterling markets, where my main responsibilities lie, start in a reasonable place : - many sterling swaps – the primary hedging instrument – have referenced sonia rather than libor for some time. that transition was given a further kick by the adoption of a ‘ sonia first ’ trading convention in interdealer markets in october. 6 - in sterling loan markets, all customers discussing new or refinanced lending with their banks should have been offered a non - libor alternative since the end of september. and new loans for anyone still unable to avoid using libor in the near - term should include a clear mechanism to ensure those loans are converted to an alternative ahead of end - 2021. but there ’ s further to go. in sterling