deterioration in short - term profitability and cash flow. pressures on profit margins and cash flows have been unrelenting. the earnings estimates of securities analysts for the s & p 500 in 2001, which presumably reflect the guidance that these analysts are getting from corporate management, have been revised downward by nearly 1 percent per week since february. to be sure, the pace of downward revision has slowed this month, but the adjustments remain negative. earnings weakness is evident pretty much across the board but especially for high - tech firms, where the previous extraordinary pace of expansion has left oversupply in its wake. much of the profit squeeze results from a rise in unit labor costs. gains in compensation per hour picked up over the past year, responding to a long period of very tight labor markets and the effects of an energy - induced run - up in consumer prices. faster increases in hourly compensation, coupled with the cyclical slowdown in the growth of output per hour, have elevated the rate of increase in unit labor costs. in effect, fixed costs, both labor and nonlabor, are being spread over a smaller production base for many industries. the sharp rise in energy costs has also pressed down directly on profit margins, especially in the fourth and first quarters. a substantial portion of the rise in total costs of nonfinancial, non - energy corporations between the second quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year reflected the increase in energy costs. prices paid for natural gas and petroleum products by these corporations continued to rise into the first quarter, but have eased this spring. electric power prices, however, continued to rise sharply through last month. going forward, the prospect for higher electricity costs is most pronounced, of course, in california. the rise in natural gas prices last quarter contributed directly and indirectly ( through its effect on the cost of electrical power generation ) much of the rise in overall energy costs for nonfinancial, nonenergy corporations. because we import little natural gas, higher prices largely result in a transfer of income from natural gas users to natural gas producers. nonetheless, these higher prices are likely to weigh on the economy in the short run because the increase in capital spending by energy producers is unlikely to offset the drag on spending by energy consumers. if overall final demand holds up reasonably well, the rate of inventory liquidation must begin to slow as inventory levels shrink toward operational targets. production and imports, taken together, would rise toward the level of final sales as inventories are brought into

speech by governor lars rohde at the ecb central bank communications conference check against delivery 15 november 2017 ladies and gentlemen, first let me thank you for inviting me to speak at this conference. it is a special pleasure to have this chance to share views and experiences on a matter close to my heart – namely danish monetary policy and communication. slide 2 : never explain – never apologize " never explain – never apologize " : it has been said that it was the motto of the bank of england from 1920 to 1944 when the bank was led by governor norman. it has also been said that norman – somewhat of a character – enjoyed the secrecy and the mystery that the role of a central banker enabled him to have. he often adopted a false identity when travelling. central bankers preferred to operate in secret back then. like a sphinx, many central bankers like to be mysterious and inscrutable. but when it comes to communication, a lot has changed since then. central banks'most powerful tool today is still their ability to set interest rates, but communication has come very high on the agenda. today we see open - mouth operations conducted by the federal reserve and other central banks and they are using forward guidance as an effective tool. by doing so, usually others in the financial industry will take the appropriate actions. it underscores the power of the communication tool. side 1 af 4 slide 3 : five lines about a new monetary policy when denmark in 1982 decided to stop a decade - long tradition of devaluating the danish krone to counter past policy mistakes, the announcement was a one - pager – five lines announced the big news. it was in fact one of the biggest news about danish monetary policy for many years, but it was told in five lines and sent by the government to newspapers and the national news agency in copenhagen. the danish central bank did not publish a press release, or anything else, and it was not mentioned in its annual report with a single word. it ’ s hard to understand today. an epoch - making event like denmark's decision to quit decades with devaluations of the danish krone was announced in a few words. it ’ s quite clear for everybody that a lot of things moved slower 35 years ago. financial markets were not as tense as they are today and neither twitter nor facebook were even invented. denmark has ever since shown both the will and the ability to pursue a fixed exchange - rate policy. another big event in the danish monetary - policy history