budi mulya : exit strategy in advanced countries and their implications for the emeap region remarks by mr budi mulya, deputy governor of bank indonesia, in the 6th executives ’ meeting of east asia - pacific central banks ( emeap ) monetary and financial stability committee ( mfsc ) meeting, chiang mai, thailand, 14 november 2009. * * * let me start by commending dr. krishna srinivasan and dr. eli remolona for the excellent presentations on this very timely and important issue. a vast discussion on exit strategy has been hovering around us recently, which involve so many ways and aspects. however, today, i will focus on three main aspects ; first, the strategy itself ; second, the implications it will bring ; and third, the challenges it will leaves us with. the strategy for exit let me begin with the first part : the strategy for exit. the biggest challenge is determining the timing to exit. on this issue, i believe we share the same understanding that it will depend on the state of the economy and the financial system of a country. nonetheless, given the still uncertain and fragile global economic recovery, especially those of the advanced economies, i have a conviction that we should err on the side of further supporting demand and financial repairs. accordingly, the exact answer would be don ’ t rush. in relation to this, it is always relevant to ask about the authorities ’ commitment, especially the fed, to err on the side of being too late, rather than too early, in starting their tightening cycle. the next issue is the sequence of exit. in this respect, the complexities lie on the interaction between fiscal vs. monetary, and conventional vs. unconventional policy. it is relevant for us to ask which one will come first. should credible commitments to mediumterm fiscal consolidation precede monetary tightening? would withdrawal of current extraordinary liquidity support and deposit guarantee accelerate or offset monetary tightening? similarly, should central banks raise interest rates before they unwind unconventional monetary policies, or the other way around? in this respect, let me recall that the g20 recommends that central banks can raise interest rates before they dry up liquidity. however, let me also balance this view with the fact that abundant liquidity inside the system tends to impede any central banks attempt to raise short term interest rate, like the one occuring in the us. thus, credibility would be the issue. how to exit is another issue

yi gang : speech at bank of thailand - bank for international settlements conference speech by mr yi gang, governor of the people's bank of china, at the bank of thailand - bank for international settlements conference " central banking amidst shifting ground ", bangkok, 2 december 2022. * * * distinguished governor sethaput suthiwartnarueput, general manager agustan carstens, president christine lagarde, governor philip lowe, governor perry warjiyo, professor raghu rajan, good morning! on behalf of the people's bank of china, i would like to extend my sincere congratulations to the bank of thailand on its 80th anniversary. it gives me great pleasure to speak at this conference. i would like to take this opportunity to say something about growth and inflation. i recall that about one or two years ago, we were still debating whether the inflationary pressure was transitory or entrenched. since the beginning of this year, however, most advanced economies started tightening monetary policies. many central banks are hiking interest rates aggressively at a much faster pace than previous tightening cycles. and also, many emerging markets and low - income countries have seen pressures of local currency depreciation, capital outflows and inflation at the same time. meanwhile, indicators such as mortgage rates and pmis throughout the world show that the likelihood of a slowdown or a recession sometime next year is on the rise. central banks are faced with a delicate balancing act of fighting inflation and keeping the economy growing at the same time. as for china, our cpi right now is about 2 %. this is particularly due to a bumper harvest in grain and stable energy prices. our gas and oil prices follow global trends. our electricity prices have basically been stable since the beginning of the year. looking for next year, the inflation forecast is in the moderate range. china's growth rate, however, is right now somewhat slower than expected due to covid and other factors. our third quarter growth rate is 3. 9 % on a year - on - year basis. but as you see, we have a pretty accommodative monetary policy in place to help with economic recovery and maximize employment. and our focus is growth right now. we recently cut the required reserve ratio ( rrr ) by 25 basis points, and also led the market interest rates lower a little bit. on top of its aggregate dimension, our monetary policy also has a structural side that is providing much needed support to