with apprenticeships is skewed in favour of the former. let us not forget that the constitution assigns the responsibility for professional training to italy ’ s regional authorities. theoretical and academic teaching at university still prevails over technical and practical content and there are still very few graduates in technical and scientific subjects. 6 these are all factors that distance italy ’ s education system from the needs of industry. one possible policy that would not weigh on the public finances could be to boost professional qualifications and encourage the new higher - education technical colleges that are offering technical specialization courses to high - school graduates, which are making their students highly employable but which are limited in availability because they are linked to local conditions. other no - cost policies could be devised : for example, simplifying the bureaucratic, administrative and informative framework both of apprenticeship contracts and, at the other end of the spectrum, of phds ; speeding up the technology transfer from universities to firms by promoting ways to share intellectual property and revenues from patents among researchers and universities ; and finally, promoting international cooperation : education policies have remained national, yet various european countries are harmonizing their university systems. competitiveness the problems of the education system interact with those of the production system, creating a vicious circle : on the one hand there is a lack of qualified human capital that limits firms ’ propensity to innovate, on the other, take - up of innovative see oecd, education at a glance 2017, oecd publishing, paris, 2017. technologies is low, thus reducing the return on skills and discouraging investment in human capital. 7 in the almost twenty years between 1999 and 2017, investment in intangible goods, more than half of which on r & d and patents, only grew by 30 per cent in italy compared with 70 per cent in france and germany and 140 per cent in spain. in relation to gdp, investment in intangibles in italy ( 3 per cent ) is today below that of germany ( 4 per cent ) and france ( 6 per cent ) and on a par with that of spain that has almost doubled in the meantime. the spread of the new digital technologies, while growing, is still below the euro - area average. as recently as last year, fewer than 10 per cent of italian firms had introduced a supply chain management system, more than a third less than in germany and france. 8 the fragmentation of the production system into many micro and small firms is the main cause of

did consumer confidence in may, suggesting that the pause in consumption may have been transitory. moreover, stronger demand would be more consistent with an environment that remains quite supportive of growth, with low interest rates, low gasoline prices, solid real income gains, a high ratio of household wealth to income, healthy levels of business and household confidence, and continuing strong job creation. indeed, current forecasts for second - quarter gdp growth are for a rebound to around 2 - 1 / 4 percent. 3 for example, according to the bureau of economic analysis, a 70 percent confidence band around the estimate of first - quarter gdp would extend from negative 0. 7 percent to 1. 7 percent, which implies that the spending data should be taken with a grain of salt. analysis by board staff finds that lagged employment growth provides a better signal of current - quarter gdp or employment growth than does lagged gdp growth. for example, the may blue chip forecast for second - quarter real gdp growth was 2. 3 percent, and the federal reserve bank of atlanta ’ s gdpnow forecasting model predicted 2. 5 percent, as of may 17. bis central bankers ’ speeches inflation remains below the 2 percent target of the federal open market committee ( fomc ), with total inflation as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures at 3 / 4 percent over the 12 months ending in march and core inflation at 1 - 1 / 2 percent, both slightly higher than a year earlier. core inflation has been held down by falling import prices, owing in large part to the rise in the dollar, as well as the indirect effects of lower oil prices on core prices. as the recent financial market tensions have eased, oil prices have increased and the dollar has weakened a bit on net. if oil prices and the dollar remain broadly stable, inflation should move up further over time to our 2 percent objective. inflation expectations seem to be under some downward pressure. some survey - based measures are at the low end of their recent historical ranges. market - based measures of longer - term breakevens have declined significantly since mid - 2014 and stand near all - time lows. while i see expectations as staying reasonably well anchored, it is essential that they remain so and that inflation return over time to the 2 percent objective. the easing in global financial conditions since mid - february and the associated waning in downside risks are welcome, and in part reflect expectations that the fomc would move more slowly in removing monetary accommodation. however