our two countries have developed. two - way trade between canada and china increased more than fivefold over the past decade and a half, and our exports to that country now exceed $ 20 billion a year. british columbia has seized this opportunity ; for example, china bought just under one - third of the province ’ s exports of forestry products last year, compared with only 4 per cent in 2001. our governments have also worked to encourage trade and investment through accords, trade missions and other agreements with china. 6 and the growth in foreign direct investment in both directions speaks to the deep links that have been formed. 7 on the financial side, the bank of canada signed a $ 30 billion canadian dollar / renminbi bilateral swap arrangement with the people ’ s bank of china in 2014. this paved the way for r. garnaut, l. song and c. fang, “ reform and china ’ s long - term growth and development, ” in deepening reform for china ’ s long - term growth and development ( canberra : anu press, 2014 ) : 3 – 25. b. s. bernanke, “ international capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the united states 2003 – 2007, ” banque de france, financial stability review, no. 15 ( february 2011 ) : 13 – 26. l. morel, “ the direct effect of china on canadian consumer prices : an empirical assessment, ” staff discussion paper no. 2007 – 10, bank of canada, 2007 ; m. francis, “ the effect of china on global prices, ” bank of canada review ( autumn 2007 ) : 13 – 25. according to the international energy agency, china ’ s oil consumption rose to 10. 6 million barrels per day in 2014, from 4. 6 million barrels per day in 2000. examples include the canada – china foreign investment promotion and protection agreement, the joint declaration on canada – china clean technology cooperation, and the memorandum of understanding aimed at increasing british columbia ’ s lumber exports to china. for more information, see http : / / www. international. gc. ca / trade - agreements - accords - commerciaux / agr - acc / fipa - apie / china - chine. aspx? lang = eng, http : / / news. gc. ca / web / article - en. do? nid = 1036379, and https : / / news. gov. bc. ca / stories

still only one - fifth of what it is in the united states. this means china still has a lot of room to catch up by adopting existing advanced technologies. as part of this process, the share of agricultural workers in china will continue to shrink, to the benefit of more productive sectors. with chinese incomes rising, education levels should follow suit and boost productivity. these improvements in human capital could potentially more than make up for the decline in the working - age population. 11 one implication for canada is that china ’ s demand for commodities should remain high and grow from a higher base, even if the country ’ s economic growth is slower and less reliant on natural resources. according to united nations population projections, china ’ s working - age population is estimated to decline by 4. 5 per cent between its 2014 peak and 2030. international monetary fund, world economic outlook database, october 2015. these values are based on j. bailliu, m. kruger, a. toktamyssov and w. welbourn, “ how fast can china grow? the middle kingdom ’ s prospects to 2030, ” staff working paper no. 2016 – 15, bank of canada, 2016. ibid. bis central bankers ’ speeches solving the chinese puzzle my third point is that history shows that the transition to the next stage of development is difficult to manage, takes time and is quite likely to be uneven. if china is to achieve its potential to grow, it will have to avoid what economists call the “ middle - income trap, ” in which developing countries that seem destined to join the club of advanced economies suddenly see their growth stagnate for many years. 12 chinese authorities recognize that their specific challenge is to shift from an economy fuelled by investment to one supported by domestic consumption. another is to boost productivity. to meet these challenges and to achieve the economy ’ s potential, chinese authorities are working to fit a number of pieces together – much like a chinese puzzle. there are many pieces, but let me mention three. comprehensive social safety net the first one is outside the purview of central banking but crucial to achieving the rotation of demand toward consumption. i ’ m talking about a comprehensive social safety net. in advanced economies that have a public pension system, unemployment insurance and healthcare, risks are pooled, and people can spend more of their income because there is relatively less need to save for a rainy day. that ’ s why people in developed countries save an average of