retirements plus total sick leave, including the qualification days and absence during the sick - pay period which when translated becomes approximately 400 000 full - time posts ( source : sou 2002 : 5, an action plan for increased ill - health at work. ) source : sou 2002 : 5, an action plan for increased ill health at work. that the pensioner support ratio, which expresses the number of professionally active in relation to those retired due to ill - health or old age, is moving up from 2. 1 in 2000 to 1. 4 in 2030, according to statistics sweden's population forecasts. this means that if potential growth is to be sustained through more people working, more need to participate in working life in the higher age groups. another method of raising potential growth would be to invest so heavily that the productivity of the labour force increased sufficiently to allow one worker to support one pensioner in the future. capacity for renewal to summarise, much has changed recently in the swedish economy. the external framework is currently characterised by a substantial fiscal policy and monetary policy stability, which facilitates planning and decision - making for both households and companies. these fundamental conditions, together with a marked increase in openness to the world around us, give reason to believe in a continued favourable development in productivity. at the same time, one should remember that many markets in sweden still show clear signs of poor competition. this involves considerable costs. i believe that the swedish economy has considerable unutilised potential for stronger development if we concentrate on this, i. e. how we shall increase the " speed limit " in the economy. it is not enough to have good macroeconomic conditions ; a policy for growth is concerned more with microeconomics than macroeconomics. it is a question of creating good incentives for individuals and people to behave in a rational social manner in their roles as economic agents. what is profitable and attractive behaviour for the individual should also be profitable for the whole. this takes me into the field of politics, which is not part of the riksbank's responsibilities. however, this is a field where i have been very involved in my previous career roles. i would therefore like to very briefly round off by saying something about what i personally believe could increase the long - term growth potential in sweden. i believe that the stimulance for increased growth capacity in the swedish economy can be found in three main arease, which concern, firstly, efforts to promote entrepreneurship,

the number of hours worked is usually one quarter in sweden, while the time lag between gdp and employment is usually twice as long, that is, six months. a well - known relationship between economic activity and activity in the labour market was formulated by arthur okun in the early 1960s. 1 this describes a negative relationship between gdp growth and changes in unemployment, which has become known as “ okun ’ s law ”. he found, for instance, that the us economy needed to grow by at least 3 per cent to avoid an increase in unemployment. okun ’ s law can thus be interpreted as a short - term relationship that expresses the link between changes in economic activity and changes in activity in the labour market. as the relationship between growth and employment is dependent on factors such as labour market policy, productivity, social norms and demography, the relationship varies between different countries and different periods in time. okun, a. m. ( 1962 ), “ potential gnp : its measurement and significance ”, american statistical association, proceedings of the business and economics statistics section, pp. 98 – 104. a recently - published economic commentary on the riksbank ’ s website 2 estimates this relationship using swedish data. 3 the study shows that there is a relatively strong link between gdp growth and unemployment, a link that has also varied over time. the connection has increased over time and between 2004 and 2008 it was relatively high, which indicates that unemployment was more sensitive to changes in gdp during this time. however the relationship has weakened over the past year, when gdp fell heavily without unemployment rising as much as one would have expected, given the historical relationship. according to the study, a gdp growth of more than 2. 8 per cent is now needed for unemployment to decline, which can be compared with the historical average of 2. 3 per cent. at present a higher level of economic growth is thus required to change the level of unemployment compared to the average historical relationship since 1980. the time lag between gdp and unemployment also appears to have increased during the 2000s. thus, it now takes longer before the full impact of a change in growth has an effect on unemployment in sweden. what is different this time? part of the explanation for unemployment not having risen as much as one might have expected given the historical relationship could be that not all of the economy has suffered. the main fall in employment has been in the manufacturing industry, while the services sector, which is more labour intensive, has fared better