outlook for potential growth. estimates of these measures have always been imprecise but are especially difficult given the rapid changes wrought by the pandemic. in the projection, economic slack is absorbed in the second half of 2022. to help manage the uncertainty surrounding this assessment, we will be watching a broader spectrum of indicators of slack, including a range of labour market measures. the outlook for inflation reflects the dynamics of overall demand and supply in the economy, as well as a number of temporary factors. in recent months, consumer price index inflation has risen above the bank ’ s 1 to 3 percent target range. three major factors are behind this temporary strength, all related to the pandemic. first, gasoline prices rebounded from very low levels a year ago and are now above pre - pandemic levels. second, other prices that had fallen sharply last year with plummeting demand are now recovering to more normal levels with the reopening of the economy. and third, disrupted global value chains and pandemic - related supply constraints, including shipping bottlenecks and a global shortage of semi - conductors, have pushed up the prices for cars and some other goods. overall, supply bottlenecks are creating sharper movement in prices that is pushing inflation temporarily higher, and these supply issues now look more important than previously thought. as a result, inflation is now projected to be somewhat above the target band through 2021. but these temporary effects are forecast to dissipate near the end of this year and inflation is forecast to ease back toward 2 percent in 2022. we expect the factors pushing up inflation to be temporary, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain, and we will be watching them closely. longer term, given our commitment to hold the policy rate at the effective lower bound until slack is absorbed, the economy is projected to move into modest excess demand, so inflation is slightly above target through 2023 before moving toward target in 2024. in sum, the reopening of the economy and the strong progress on vaccinations have given us reason to be more optimistic about the direction of the economy. but we are not there yet, and we are mindful that the process is likely to be bumpy, and some scars will remain. at today ’ s decision, the governing council judged that the recovery still needs extraordinary support from monetary policy. we remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation

and 34 who have a university degree is still below the average for the main industrial countries, despite the significant increase in recent years following the university reform of 2002. the university drop - out rate is 60 per cent, nearly twice the average for the leading countries. the proportion of graduates who go on to earn a postgraduate qualification is very small, so that italy is fourth from the bottom in the ranking of oecd countries. the bulk of the recent increase in the number of graduates has consisted of students doing a shorter course. in the last two years matriculants have converged above all on law and the political and social sciences. more generally, by international standards the study courses of italian university students appear biased towards the humanities and social sciences and away from technical and scientific subjects. part of the difference is due to the fact that, in contrast with italy, shorter - course university degrees in other countries are mainly in technical subjects. but another part of the explanation is to be found in the high rents enjoyed by some professions, which distort families ’ choices, and in firms ’ insufficient demand for high technical and scientific qualifications. fewer public resources are allocated to higher education in italy than in many other advanced countries. this is the flip side of the larger volume of resources allocated to primary and secondary education. the basic political choice was to privilege early education to the detriment of investment in advanced knowledge. this is not a far - sighted choice in a world in which innovation is the key to growth. the public resources allocated to higher education in italy appear even smaller when compared with those made available to anglo - saxon university systems, despite their having a great many private institutions. the manner of intervening is different, however : in the united states, for example, it is mainly in the form of direct financing of deserving students and their families through scholarships and personal loans ; in italy, as in the rest of continental europe, the bulk of funds serve to finance the universities. 4. looking ahead by now nobody in italy should have any doubts about the urgent need to revive economic growth. the present lively cyclical upturn is certainly not sufficient to trigger a rapid solution to the structural defects of italy ’ s productive system. for the reasons that i have tried to set out here, education is one of the most important aspects of a reform strategy aimed at altering the context in which that system operates. in a modern economy the public sector organizes and regulates the market, produces public goods and corrects external