24 / 26 bis central bankers'speeches exports by $ 1 billion ( a 90 % collapse ). and as regards the argument on jobs and the domestic industry, the winners from the 2009 tire safeguards were alternative foreign exporters ( in asia and mexico ), while domestic us tire producers were secondary beneficiaries. that is why the liberal consensus is that trade wars are bad for everybody. another reason why trump is wrong is his misleading focus on trade deficits ; it overlooks the fact that the total trade deficit reflects the shortfall in savings by households, businesses and the government, i. e. the excess of their combined spending over their income. a necessary condition, therefore, for narrowing the us trade deficit is to achieve a higher savings rate relative to the us investment rate. at a time when the level of savings is very low, the prospective deterioration in the us current account deficit of around us $ 150 billion a year ( due to the spending bill signed into law last month ) will almost inevitably reduce the overall level of savings. this will also cause the trade deficit to widen, bringing to mind the reagan administration, under which the us experienced twin deficits, i. e. a fiscal and a current account deficit. if tariffs are imposed to a large extent and they are persistent, a trade war will break out, which may lead to competitive devaluations between the us and china. we ’ ve seen all this before through currency wars and beggar - thy - neighbour policies. in economic theory and history, rising twin deficits may only be resolved by a stronger currency, as was the case of the stronger dollar in the 1980s under president reagan and post - german reunification with a stronger deutschmark ( see figure 18 ). today, economic theory and investment portfolio developments point to a strong us dollar, but measures of protectionism ( the opposite pole to globalisation ) focusing on the domestic economy self - interest and not taking account of the interconnections in a global economy, negatively affect the us dollar exchange rate. the us current account deficit can be funded by countries with large current - account surpluses coming from private sector investors in japan and europe, who have been pushed out of their domestic markets as a result of extensive quantitative easing programmes by their respective central banks. but, as central banks start tapering their asset purchases and wind down their unconventional easing monetary policies, there is little prospect for increased demand. at the moment, markets seem to expect that the us

, it is timely for insurers including intermediaries, to assess how best to improve insurance penetration going forward. there are some fundamental questions that need to be asked. would attracting a larger agency force be the most effective solution in this more liberalized environment? or, should the focus perhaps be on expanding the diversity of the intermediaries in general, to ensure consumers have more alternatives to receive high - quality and suitable advice? whatever the response to these questions, what is obvious is that investing in human capital is an important common denominator, not only to enhance the existing level of expertise of intermediaries but also to attract the right people to ensure a continuous supply of talents into the profession. it is from this perspective that an incentive package is being considered by the bank to subsidize the costs related to minimum professional qualifications for fas. we hope that it will entice more agents to consider upgrading themselves to become successful fas. growing demand for independent financial advisory services as our economy continues its track towards high income nation status, and as our society becomes more affluent and discerning, we envisage an increasing demand and preference for high - quality, independent and personalized advisory services among financially - savvy consumers. apart from rising levels of disposable income and financial sophistication, malaysians are expected to live longer now than ever before. it is projected that by 2040, 17 % of the malaysian population will live beyond the age of 60 years old compared to about only 8 % of the total population in 2010. this creates the need for more effective long - term financial planning on the part of consumers to ensure they have sufficient funds to see them through their golden years. in this respect, as part of the government ’ s initiative to encourage savings among malaysians to better prepare for their retirement, the government had announced a tax relief of rm3, 000 for individuals who have bought an annuity plan for the next 10 years commencing in 2012. bis central bankers ’ speeches an increased competition within the financial sector and evolving demographic structures has also led to the introduction of new and more complex financial products offered by financial service providers. while financial consumers now have a greater array of choice, the challenge is in choosing the most appropriate financial product commensurate to their needs. lessons learned from other markets showed that high - profile cases of mis - selling of investment - linked and pension products extols the importance of ensuring consumers are properly advice