european central bank : press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank, and mr lucas papademos, vice - president of the european central bank, berlin, 4 may 2005. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice - president and i are very pleased to welcome you to the press conference here in berlin. today is the 11th time that the governing council has met outside frankfurt, and i would like to thank president weber for his invitation and hospitality. let me also express our gratitude to the staff of the deutsche bundesbank for their excellent organisation of today ’ s meeting. let me now report on the outcome of today ’ s meeting, which was also attended by commissioner almunia. on the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we continue to see no significant evidence of a build - up of underlying domestic inflationary pressures in the euro area. accordingly, we have left the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the exceptionally low level of interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum provides considerable support to economic activity in the euro area. at the same time, continued vigilance with regard to upside risks to price stability is warranted. allow me to elaborate on our decision, turning first to the economic analysis. regarding the current situation and the short - term outlook for economic activity, recent data and survey indicators are, on balance, on the downside. some of the downward risks to economic growth identified earlier, in particular those related to persistently high oil prices, appear to have partially materialised over the past few months. at the same time, when looking beyond the short term, conditions remain in place for stronger real gdp growth. on the external side, euro area exports should continue to be supported by foreign demand. on the domestic side, investment should benefit from the very favourable financing conditions, the robust corporate earnings currently being observed and ongoing improvements in corporate efficiency. consumption growth should evolve broadly in line with expected developments in disposable income. downside risks to economic growth continue to be related to oil price developments and global imbalances. turning to price developments, according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, annual hicp inflation was 2. 1 % in april, unchanged from march. over the coming months, annual hicp inflation rates are likely to remain around these levels. wage increases have remained contained over recent quarters and, in the context of moderate economic growth and weak labour markets, this trend should continue for

european central bank : press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank and mr lucas papademos, vice - president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 4 november 2004. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice - president and i will now report on the outcome of today ’ s meeting of the governing council of the ecb. persistently high and rising oil prices have had a visible direct impact on consumer prices this year, and inflation is likely to remain significantly above 2 % in the coming months. this is a worrisome development, but there is no strong indication as yet that medium - term inflationary pressures are building up in the euro area. in particular, wage growth appears to remain limited, in the context of ongoing moderate real gdp growth and weak labour markets. against this background, we have decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged at their present levels, which are very low by historical standards. however, there are upside risks to price stability over the medium term. strong vigilance is therefore warranted with regard to all developments which could increase such risks. i shall now explain our assessment in more detail, turning first to the economic analysis. the economic recovery started in the second half of 2003, and we saw positive developments in the first half of 2004. although short - term indicators have become more mixed, the basic determinants of economic activity remain consistent with continuing economic growth in 2005. on the external side, we see some moderation taking place following a period in which the world economy has experienced its strongest dynamism in many years. nevertheless, euro area exports should continue to benefit from positive global demand conditions in 2005. on the domestic side, investment should be supported by the global environment, the very favourable financing conditions in the euro area, improved earnings and greater corporate efficiency gained through business restructuring. furthermore, scope exists in the euro area as a whole for private consumption to strengthen, particularly once labour market prospects improve more visibly. however, this outlook is surrounded by continuing uncertainty, in particular stemming from recent developments in oil markets. on the one hand, the magnitude and nature of this shock differ from earlier experiences, when oil price rises were much stronger and mainly due to supply constraints. in addition, the oil intensity of production is significantly lower in the euro area. on the other hand, recent oil price increases constitute a nonetheless sizeable adverse shock to the euro area economy. if oil