1 trillion — by the end of 2021. 2 in this environment, it ’ s no wonder companies were reluctant to invest to expand their export capacity. another difference between these crises is that, this time, trade in services has been affected much more than trade in goods ( chart 2 ). the impact on services was barely visible during the global financial crisis, whereas services fell along with goods in 2020. and overall, services haven ’ t recovered, even as goods have rebounded. chart 2 : canadian exports : global financial crisis compared with covid - 19 pandemic ( nominal data, seasonally adjusted annual rate, index : start date = 100 ) index t - 2 t - 1 t t + 1 t + 2 t + 3 t + 4 t + 5 t + 6 t + 7 t + 8 start date ( t ) + / - number of quarters goods — gfc source : statistics canada goods — covid - 19 services — gfc services — covid - 19 start dates : global financial crisis ( gfc ), 2008q3 ; covid - 19 pandemic, 2020q1 last observation : 2020q3 consider international tourism exports, which are vital to british columbia. tourism has basically come to a full stop. canadian education exports have also been hit by the pandemic. when a foreign student comes to canada to study, the tuition counts as an export of education services. before the pandemic, this was 1 d. de munnik, j. jacob and w. sze, “ the evolution of canada ’ s global export market share, ” bank of canada staff working paper no. 2012 - 31 ( october 2012 ). see also t. macklem, “ regearing our economic growth ” ( speech to the w. edmund clark distinguished lecture, queen ’ s university, kingston, ontario, january 10, 2013 ). 2 bank of canada monetary policy report, january 2020, p. 2. - 4a large and fast - growing activity. in 2019, educational services exports were almost $ 14 billion, an increase of 67 percent from 2015. the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on trade in services has significant implications for canada. services exports are only about a quarter of the size of goods exports. but services exports had been growing much more quickly than goods exports before the pandemic ( chart 3 ). chart 3 : services exports outperformed goods exports before covid - 19 ( seasonally adjusted

many mortgages are securitizedbundled together and sold to investors - widespread losses in the mortgage market could also have implications for market liquidity and overall financial stability. further, since mortgage insurance in canada is backed by the federal government, large losses could have fiscal implications. 1 / 8 bis - central bankers'speeches that's a lot of doom and gloom, so let me be clear that these are tail risks - they're not our forecast. from a monetary policy perspective, our forecast includes the expectation that households will continue to adjust their saving and spending patterns to absorb the impact of higher mortgage payments. and as interest rates come down that impact will fade, and consumption will gradually pick up. from a financial stability perspective, canadians have a long history of paying their mortgages. even through the 2008 – 09 global financial crisis, canada never saw a mortgage arrears rate above 0. 5 %. more recently, our mortgage market has fared well through a period of economic turbulence and a sharp rise in interest rates. arrears rates have risen but remain near historically low levels. given our recent experience, it's a good time to reflect. and even if the economy is getting back to something approaching normal, we're still expecting a future with more economic volatility and generally higher interest rates than we saw over much of the past two decades. another reason it's a good time to reflect is that mortgage finance rules are one of the levers policy - makers sometimes use to deal with housing affordability. house prices are primarily a function of the balance between supply and demand. but since most people borrow to buy a house, prices are also affected by the cost and availability of housing credit. the cost and availability of housing credit are, of course, influenced by central bank policy rates. they're also influenced by government policy and regulations. so this is what i'm going to talk about today. i'll start with a few key concepts to make sure we're all on the same page. then i'll offer a brief history lesson covering some important policy changes in canada's mortgage market. finally, i will draw out a few comparisons of mortgage finance in jurisdictions that do things differently than we do. the objective is to see what we can learn and where there might be opportunities for change. mortgages 101 home ownership is widely considered to be good for society, so governments in most countries like to provide incentives for it by ensuring that housing