, and had therefore fostered the rapid growth of emerging countries. as a result, the share of emerging countries in the world gdp increased while that of g7 countries declined to around 50 percent in the latter half of the 2000s from two - thirds in 1990. the volume of global trade has increased greatly due to the formulation of gvcs. chart 3 shows the global trade volume relative to the world real gdp. it basically continued to be flat during the 1980s, which means the growth rate of the global trade volume had been almost the same as that of the economy. however, it has soared since the 1990s, and the global trade volume increased faster than real gdp. multinational companies demand and supply a wide variety of goods internationally to produce final goods under gvcs. so the growth rate of the trade volume is higher than that of the demand for final products. moreover, they constructed production bases in various regions of the world in forming gvcs. therefore, the increase in the trade of capital goods, such as machine tools and construction machines, also contributed to the increase in trade volume. you might have noticed that, in chart 3, global trade volume kinked after the global financial crisis in the late 2000s and became flat again. we will come back to this point later. asia is the heart of gvcs and, as you know, china has come to be called " the workshop of the world. " multinational firms established the production system, where china is the final place for assembling a product, and the surrounding asian countries supply capital goods and parts. they chose asia as a manufacturing base because they can mass - produce and export products at low cost due to the inexpensive and abundant labor force and industrial sites. also, they expected asia to become a prospective market of consumer goods, because of its large population. another reason, i think, is that governments in asia eased restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector in order to attract direct investment. so how did the gvcs affect economic growth in asia? firms in developed countries have arranged development and production bases through gvcs by seeking the efficiency of each process to reduce production costs and increase value added. hence, asian countries became the production bases of gvcs induced by foreign direct investment, and acquired high technology and know - how. on this point, they are different from the cases of the united kingdom and the united states, which used to be " the workshops of the world. " while production in the united

consensus economics inc., " consensus forecasts " ; bank of japan. chart 3 changes in jgb yield curve since the introduction of qqe with a negative interest rate 2. 0 % april 3, 2013 ( the day before the decision to introduce qqe ) january 28, 2016 ( the day before the decision to introduce qqe with a negative interest rate ) 1. 5 july 27, 2016 ( the bottom of 10 - year jgb yields ) 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 - 0. 5 year source : bloomberg. residual maturity chart 4 qqe with yield curve control inflation - overshooting commitment inflation rate yield curve control % 1. 2 recent shape of jgb yield curve 1. 0 0. 8 0. 6 2 % target level of the long - term interest rate " around zero percent " short - term policy interest rate " minus 0. 1 percent " 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0 - 0. 2 - 0. 4 0 1 year expansion of monetary base continues 9 10 15 20 residual maturity source : bloomberg. chart 5 manufacturing conditions manufacturing pmi s. a., di global economy advanced economies emerging and commodity - exporting economies cy 10 note : figures for the global economy are the j. p. morgan global manufacturing pmi. figures for advanced economies as well as emerging and notes : commodity - exporting economies are calculated as the weighted averages of the manufacturing pmi using ppp - adjusted gdp shares of notes : world total gdp from the imf as weights. advanced economies consist of the united states, the euro area, the united kingdom, and japan. emerging and commodity - exporting economies consist of 17 countries and regions, including china, south korea, taiwan, russia, and brazil. sources : imf ; ihs markit ( © and database right ihs markit ltd 2017. all rights reserved. ) ; haver. chart 6 world economic outlook released by the imf world real gdp growth rate y / y % chg. 2004 - 2007 average : + 5. 3 % [UNK]. 6 [UNK]. 4 + 3. 2 + 3. 1 1990 - 2003 average : + 3. 3 % imf projection ( jan. 2017 ) - 1 cy 90 source : imf. chart 7 consumption activity index s. a., cy 2010 = 100 consumption activity index ( adjusting travel balance, real ) cy 05 note : figures for the consumption activity index exclude inbound tourism consumption and include