— a commodity closely associated with prospects for chinese growth. another contributor to the slump in commodity prices is the fact that they are generally priced in us dollars. so, a period of us - dollar strength relative to other currencies can lead to lower prices for those commodities, all else being equal. foreign exchange markets this brings me to currency markets, which can give another perspective on prospects for economic growth. many factors affect exchange rates on any given day. still, at the root, exchange rates signal expectations for the relative strength of economies and differences in interest rates. so, it is not a surprise that the us dollar has outperformed virtually every major currency since the start of the year. this reflects both the prospects for continued us growth and policy - rate increases by the federal reserve. the prospect for higher us interest rates is slowing or reversing capital flows to emerging markets. in previous years, this would have raised fears of capital flight, leading to sharp increases in interest rates and significant currency weakness across many emerging markets. so far, at least, the message from currency markets is somewhat more encouraging. virtually all emerging markets have seen their currency decline against the us dollar, as you would expect. and while several emerging - market currencies have shown significant weakness this year, extreme movements have been confined to two currencies — the argentine peso and the turkish lira. in fact, the weakness in the currencies of those two countries may well reflect a risk i mentioned earlier — among other risks, of course — that the independence of those central banks has been put into serious doubt. it can be perilous for an economy if investors come to believe that the outlook for inflation is coming under political influence. by the way, this highlights one of the best attributes of canada ’ s monetary policy framework. every five years, after extensive research and consultation, the government agrees in writing on the bank ’ s inflation target, and gives us the 4 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches operational independence to pursue that goal. interest rate expectations — ois and finally, to the money markets. expectations for canadian short - term interest rates are best captured in the overnight index swap market, or ois. participants in the ois market can use the swaps to hedge exposure to future bank of canada policy rate changes, or to speculate on them. we watch this market closely because it provides the average forecast of market participants for the path of our policy rate. when the market shifts

fact, the european perspective becomes much more important as time passes. why is that? well, because there are many challenges that are in fact supranational by their very nature. that is to say, you can ’ t really respond to these challenges, and you can ’ t really address the problems at national level if they are supranational. just let me give you an example : security is not something that people can actually address only at national level. unfortunately, we have seen this very frequently through various terrorist actions. everything in economics now is basically global. so it ’ s even beyond being only european. it ’ s actually all over the place. the more we integrate, the better we ’ ll be placed to address economic issues of this nature. think about defence. does it make sense today saying that countries are able to defend themselves against global challenges? well, less and less. think about another challenge : migration. migration is not a problem of one country. it ’ s a problem, a challenge and an opportunity for a group of countries. in this case, the european and eurozone countries are certainly called to respond to this challenge. all this means that having a european perspective has become essential to understand today ’ s problems and the possible solutions. the key 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches question that you will be asked more and more in the future is “ what can we achieve together? ” we count on you to embark on this long journey : we invite you to be our ambassadors, to continue the conversation on europe in your schools and cities, with your relatives and friends. you will have an important role to play in tomorrow ’ s europe, but that role, that responsibility, starts today. you give us not only hope for a better future, but you also inspire us to continue our work. we should be the ones to be thankful to you. finally, let me express a special “ thank you ” to the teachers here for making this event happen, and for the wonderful guidance and support you have given to your students. let me also add a “ thank you ” to some people who are not here, who are your families, for the support they must have given to you to be able to reach such an achievement today. you are very lucky to be so well taught – even if you might not have realised it ; or even if your teachers might not be aware of how much good they have given to you ; or even if your families