a context of restrained access to capital markets for emerging market economies. secondly, since 2002 the current account balance is projected to remain positive in 2007 for six consecutive years, an unprecedented event since the mid - 1940s. argentina is taking advantage of structural changes in the world economy that yield high commodity prices for several of its exporting products. this fact, combined with factors such as the abundance of natural resources, a reasonable infrastructure and the high level of education standards, put the country in an interesting competitive position in the global economy. shipments of manufactured products ( of both agricultural and industrial origin ) are leading the growth of exports. this increase has occurred together with a greater diversification in terms of products and, especially, destinations. this has been boosted by a very active trade policy pursued over the last years to open and diversify markets. for example, the number of countries argentina sells its products has grown steadily from 159 in 1999 to more than 190 in 2006. this factor clearly helps mitigating the risks associated with adverse shocks in some of our trade partners. and, despite a likely deceleration in the us and, probably, in europe, i am not expecting a significant shift away from this scenario any time soon. today, commodity prices depend almost exclusively on the long - term equilibrium between supply and demand in each particular market. and these balances have been virtually unaffected by recent financial turmoil. especially, for soft commodities, where demand seems to be immune to recent developments. in fact, agricultural prices have shown persistent upside movements recently associated with a structural change : a sustained growth in demand ( rather than negative supply shocks as in other times in history ). steady demand is based on higher consumption from emerging market economies worldwide. the middle east, southeast asia and latin america are delivering the best economic performance of the last decades. together, they act as a positive factor that balances ( and also mitigates ) the prospective weakness in the us and europe. wheat prices, for instance, showed a new record high last month explained by higher demand coming from the emerging world ( mainly india ). this will keep inventories low and the ratio stock - consumption at minimum levels. escalating shipments have also their grounds on the increasing use of agricultural products such as corn as inputs for producing substitutes to fossil fuel ( to be consumed in industrial countries ). according to recent usda studies, corn needs for energy demand will grow, in quantity, more than the world ’ s total production for, at least, the

between small and large bank customers. my reading is clear : the intellectual stature and experience of all players involved in the controversy prove that there is no single policy or one optimal approach that could be defined in a vacuum. every policy option has its costs and benefits : there is no such thing as a free lunch. the key is to choose whether we want to avoid “ going long ” or “ falling short ”. naturally, beyond any attempt to mitigate this trade - off, the strategy and policy choice will crucially depend on the attitudes of the government and its people towards risk. it will also depend on their intertemporal considerations, because the profit and loss profile of alternative regimes will not always coincide. furthermore, past trends in the relevant economy and the starting conditions will naturally affect our policy choice. our central bank ’ s approach to monetary policy in and for the specific circumstances of the argentine economy can be understood in this framework. this approach is three - fold : ( 1 ) a robust monetary policy that ensures the equilibrium between supply and demand ( 2 ) a counter - cyclical scheme of foreign reserve accumulation to mitigate vulnerabilities and reduce macroeconomic volatility ; and ( 3 ) a managed floating exchange rate regime. our economy has been systematically prone to recurring and marked macroeconomic instability episodes. the occurrence of shocks ( in terms of trade or in the conditions to access external financing, among others ) and the existence of shock - amplifying mechanisms have been a source of recurring macroeconomic instability in the past. these trends were often underscored by the macroeconomic policy itself, which tended to behave procyclically. this explains the preventive approach underlying the current monetary policy design and also reveals our asymmetric approach to the shocks affecting the domestic economy. on numerous occasions we have insisted on the idea that the past haunts us and leads us to adopt a prudent and asymmetrical strategy in response to exogenous forces : until enough evidence proves otherwise, we are forced to “ dramatically shift the burden of proof ” and assume that every negative shock is permanent and that, a priori, positive forces are temporary. naturally, this has a bearing on economic policy as a whole. therefore, a prudent fiscal strategy of building up excess savings in good times should be a natural consequence of this asymmetric approach to shocks. the same happens in the monetary and financial field. the buildup of liquidity buffers in good times allows us