( chart 2 ). the largest falls have been in the accommodation and dining sectors ( over 90 % ). but sectors such as arts and recreation, construction and education have fallen by more than 40 %. utilities, food production and real estate have been among the least affected. generally speaking, the greater a sector ’ s reliance on personal contact, the larger its fall. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches chart 2 : falls in output by sector industry output, hit to level, % accomm. & food other service arts & recreation construction education transp. & storage admin. & support distribution manufacturing extraction health professional, etc info. & comms electricity agriculture water financial real estate public admin. & def. - 20 - 40 - 60 - 80 - 100 sources : ons and bank calculations. note : data to april 2020. this sharp contraction in economic activity has been accompanied, unsurprisingly, by a sharp fall in working hours. globally, it is estimated that hours worked in q2 were almost 11 % lower than prior to the crisis, equivalent to over 300 million full - time workers. 5 the imf forecast that the advanced economy unemployment rate will double this year to over 8 %. and the ilo estimate that the crisis could increase unemployment globally by anywhere between 5. 3 and 24. 7 million people. 6 in the uk, employment data to april from the labour force survey ( lfs ) does not point to a sharp contraction so far. but other, more timely, labour market indicators suggest a sharp fall in employment. claims for universal credit have risen by 2½ million since mid - march and administrative data from hmrc point to a large rise in joblessness. claimant count measures of unemployment have risen by around 1½ million since the start of the year. in addition, over 9 million jobs are estimated to have been furloughed as part of the government ’ s job retention scheme. 7 a further more than 2. 5 million self - employed workers are claiming income support. and perhaps as many as 8 million employees are working fewer hours for a variety of reasons. 8 taken together, this means that perhaps as much as half the uk workforce is currently either unemployed or underemployed. this, too, has no historical precedent. ilo ( 2020a ). ilo ( 2020b ). the total number of jobs furloughed may not equa

willingness of companies to take back furloughed workers will depend importantly on their expectations about future demand for their goods and services. the stronger those expectations, the lower the likelihood of job losses. firms will not make workers redundant if they need to rehire them, at a cost, soon afterwards. this lowers unemployment risk, raises household incomes, confidence and spending and thereby boosts firm revenues and employment, in a virtuous cycle. back in the 1950s john hicks called this dynamic a “ super - multiplier ” – “ super ” because the cumulative effects are amplified when emerging from recession. 15 there is survey evidence to support this dynamic. the british chambers of commerce ’ s ( bcc ) weekly survey suggests firms ’ demand and employment intentions have moved upwards in lockstep since april ( chart 11 ). indeed, employment was close to balance by mid - may. surveys of employment intentions and vacancies have also recently recovered from low levels. chart 11 : bcc survey balance composite output reported employment - 20 - 40 - 60 - 80 - 100 sources : bcc and bank calculations. notes : chart shows bcc quarterly survey and dashed lines show more recent weekly survey after covid - 19 crisis began. a further mitigating factor is that household savings rates appear to have risen, involuntarily and significantly, due to social distancing policies. a bank of england survey in conjunction with ipsos mori suggests the aggregate saving ratio is broadly unchanged, although with considerable heterogeneity across income cohorts ( chart 12 ). but it is possible these survey respondents did not capture the involuntary increase in households ’ cash balances when they answered questions about their savings behaviour. haldane ( 2020 ). hicks ( 1950 ). all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches for example, sterling deposits held by households and companies in banks have increased sharply over the past few months, by around £120 billion ( chart 13 ). that is consistent with a significant rise in the saving ratio. these higher involuntary savings could be drawn down to finance future spending, at least by some households. in aggregate, they potentially dwarf any voluntary rise in savings for precautionary purposes. chart 12 : saving rates by income ( net balance ) net balance increased savings ( % ) - 5 - 10 - 15 up to £19, 999 £20, 000 - £34, 999 £35, 000 - £54,