a central bank can and cannot do in order to get japan's economy back on track. in exploring the boundary between what a central bank can and cannot do, we have tried to find the right boundary by not being shackled by precedents, thinking hard, and acting with courage. even after short - term interest rates reached virtually zero percent, we adopted a new framework of quantitative easing and have been providing ample liquidity. this was unprecedented in the central bank history. in addition, we also came up with an extremely unusual measure for a central bank last fall, namely the direct purchase of the shareholdings of banks in the interests of financial system stability. i am nevertheless aware that voices have been heard calling for further efforts on the part of the bank of japan for revitalizing japan's economy. and, let me assure you here that we are committed to making the most of our wisdom and courage to further explore what we are able to do and to carry it out. thank you for your attention.

the april 2018 outlook report, the real gdp growth rate is projected to be 1. 6 percent for fiscal 2018, and 0. 8 percent each for fiscal 2019 and 2020. let me explain the outlook in detail by major component. first, business fixed investment is likely to continue increasing. this is because, in a situation where extremely stimulative financial conditions are maintained, fixed investment will be positively affected by an improvement in corporate profits, the materialization of the effects of projects conducted under the fiscal investment and loan program as well as the effects of investment - enhancing tax incentives, and a moderate improvement in growth expectations. specifically, an increase is likely to be seen in investment such as, ( 1 ) that intended for domestic capacity expansion in line with the economic expansion ; ( 2 ) that related to the 2020 olympic games and urban redevelopment projects ; ( 3 ) that aiming at improving efficiency and saving labor in order to deal with, for example, the labor shortage ; and ( 4 ) in research and development for growth areas. private consumption is expected to follow a moderate increasing trend, due mainly to an increase in employee income as well as replacement demand for durable goods, and housing investment is expected to remain more or less flat. exports will likely continue their increasing trend for the time being, as those of capital goods and it - related goods, in which japan has a comparative advantage, are likely to be firm. thereafter, they are expected to continue their moderate increasing trend, due mainly to the improvement in overseas economies. industrial production will likely continue to increase firmly for the time being, and thereafter is projected to continue on a moderate increasing trend. the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) is likely to increase toward 2 percent. this is because, although upward pressure of energy prices is likely to wane moderately, firms are likely to gradually shift their stance toward raising wages and prices with the improvement in the output gap, and inflation expectations are expected to gradually rise. looking at the medians of the policy board members'forecasts in the april 2018 outlook report, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) is projected to be 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2018 and - - on a basis excluding the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike - - 1. 8 percent each for fiscal 2019 and 2020. developments in prices since the release of the april 2018 outlook report have been slightly weak relative to what had