- by - period optimisation of short - term gains in terms of output stabilisation or, more generally, on political opportunism. if we are to reach consistent decisions, we must make sure that all available information is used systematically. this is especially important during prolonged periods of largerthan - usual forecast errors. in such situations, additional data and information can help assess the likelihood that the forecast errors are not just due to unpredictable shocks, but to underlying structural changes in the economy. 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the snb is currently investing in such alternative data and information. this helps us to improve our understanding of inflationary pressures and assess the possibility of a change in the underlying inflation regime. for example, we are monitoring disaggregated cpi data more closely. we are also experimenting with machine - learning models that are trained using a large set of economic and alternative indicators. furthermore, we collect additional data from our network of regional representatives who conduct one - on - one discussions about the current economic situation in switzerland with around 250 company managers throughout the country every quarter. the statistics gathered from these talks – for example on firms'inflation expectations, but also on other evidence, such as changes in companies'price - setting behaviour – can be useful in assessing regime changes before they show up in the official statistics. systematically collecting and evaluating as much information as possible is crucial. however, in a situation of exceptionally high uncertainty, a key challenge for policymakers is to find the right balance between waiting for additional information and not falling behind the curve. this brings me to the third principle for decision - making : determination. determination the literature provides arguments for both a wait - and - see approach and more aggressive policies, depending, for example, on whether the uncertainty is related to measurement, the effectiveness of policies, or unforeseen developments. in practice, in an environment such as the one we face today, mixed signals on the persistence of inflation might tempt policymakers to postpone further reaction to inflationary pressures until uncertainty about future inflation has receded. yet uncertainty must not mean indecision. a risk management approach to policymaking sometimes calls for decisive action. at times, the optimal policy decisions may be those that provide insurance against particularly bad, though very unlikely, events. the snb's tightening of its monetary policy over the past year should be seen in this context. towards the end of 2021, at a time when the inflation outlook was still

speech embargo 8 november 2018, 6. 30 pm ten years after the crisis : evolving markets and the challenges for the snb money market event andrea m. maechler and thomas moser member of the governing board / alternate member of the governing board ∗ swiss national bank geneva, 8 november 2018 © swiss national bank, zurich, 2018 ( speech given in french ) ∗ the speakers would like to thank dirk faltin, fabio panzera and nicolas stoffels for their support in drafting this speech. they also thank bernd aumann and alain kouo as well as snb language services. page 1 / 9 ladies and gentlemen, i wish you a warm welcome to the swiss national bank ’ s money market event in geneva. ten years ago, back in the autumn of 2008, none of us knew when or how the crisis would end. at the time, central banks adopted a raft of measures to tackle multiple challenges in quick succession. having exhausted the conventional monetary policy toolkit, they turned to more innovative approaches, cutting their short - term interest rates to unprecedented levels and substantially expanding their balance sheets. today, a decade later, the worst fears have evaporated, economic growth has returned to a robust level in many parts of the world, and some central banks have started to gradually tighten their monetary policy. for the snb, though, it is still too early to contemplate taking such action. at our last monetary policy assessment in september, we decided to maintain our expansionary monetary policy stance. although economic developments are favourable, inflationary pressures remain low. moreover, the swiss franc remains highly valued and the situation on the foreign exchange market is still fragile. against this backdrop, the contours of a ‘ new normal ’ are emerging for central banks. while there are still many significant unknowns in the political, geopolitical and economic arenas, one thing is certain : the environment in which the central banks operate has evolved considerably, mainly due to structural changes. some of these changes had already begun well before the crisis, but they have accelerated in the intervening period. i am thinking here of the digitalisation of the economy, for example, as well as the emergence of new technologies on the financial markets. in this speech, i would like to outline how the snb has had to adapt – and continues to adapt – to make sure it is always in a position to fulfil its mandate. to illustrate this point, i want to focus on three