feds notes. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, september 2. — — — ( 2021 ). " research data series : index of common inflation expectations, " feds notes. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, march 5. christiano, lawrence, martin eichenbaum, and sergio rebelo ( 2011 ). “ when is the government spending multiplier large? " journal of political economy, vol. 119 ( february ), pp. 78 – 121. clarida, richard h. ( 2020 ). " the federal reserve ’ s new framework : context and consequences, " speech delivered at “ the economy and monetary policy, ” an event hosted by 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches the hutchins center on fiscal and monetary policy at the brookings institution, washington ( via webcast ), november 16. — — — ( 2021 ). " the federal reserve ’ s new framework and outcome - based forward guidance, " speech delivered at “ somc : the federal reserve ’ s new policy framework, ” a forum sponsored by the manhattan institute ’ s shadow open market committee, new york ( via webcast ), april 14. eggertsson, gauti b. ( 2011 ). “ what fiscal policy is effective at zero interest rates? ” in daron acemoglu and michael woodford, eds., nber macroeconomics annual2010, vol. 25 ( chicago : university of chicago press ), pp. 59 – 112. powell, jerome h. ( 2020 ). " new economic challenges and the fed ’ s monetary policy review, " speech delivered at “ navigating the decade ahead : implications for monetary policy, ” a symposium sponsored by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, held in jackson hole, wyo., august 27. woodford, michael ( 2011 ). “ simple analytics of the government expenditure multiplier, " american economic journal : macroeconomics, vol 3 ( january ), pp. 1 – 35. woodford, michael, and yinxi xie ( 2020 ). " fiscal and monetary stabilization policy at the zero lower bound : consequences of limited foresight, " nber working paper series 27521. cambridge, mass. : national bureau of economic research, july. 1 the views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of other federal reserve board members or federal open market committee participants. i would like to thank chiara scott

luis de guindos : interview in la vanguardia interview with mr luis de guindos, vice - president of the european central bank, and la vanguardia, conducted by mr manel perez and published on 12 april 2020. * * * what is your assessment of the global economic situation in the midst of this coronavirus crisis? the global economy will enter recession and so will the european economy, albeit an even more severe one. the ultimate fall in gdp will depend on how long the lockdown lasts. international bodies have calculated that the economy will shrink by 2 % to 3 % for each month of lockdown. so one and a half months would be around 5 %. three months would be double that. do these calculations also apply to the spanish economy? spain had an advantage at the start of this crisis – it was seeing growth that was higher than the average of its euro area peers. but it also had a problem – its economy is more exposed to the crisis as it is more dependent on services like tourism, which are heavily affected by the pandemic. this makes it very likely that spain will experience a deeper recession. and coming out the other side of the crisis, what do you think the economic recovery will look like? in the euro area, the most likely scenario is that we will see some signs of growth starting in the third quarter, but we will have to wait until 2021 to see a genuine recovery in economic activity. in any case, 2021 will not be able to make up for all of the downturn in 2020. i think the shape of the recovery will be somewhere between a v and a u, but we have to remember that everything will depend on the length of the economic shutdown imposed by the fight against the pandemic. governments are implementing active fiscal policies to stop the crisis getting worse. in spain, business associations are complaining that the tax payment schedule has remained the same, which could lead to liquidity problems. they are calling for tax deferrals and even exemptions. what is your opinion? first of all, it ’ s important to remember that the basis for the recovery will depend on successfully protecting the economy ’ s productive capacity. if this is achieved, economic activity will rebound more strongly. to answer your question : first you have to consider that firms will see a drastic fall in their revenue, so it ’ s essential that they receive relief from their tax burden. the state ’ s tax receipts will also fall dramatically. it