government saving behavior, 273 – 304, cambridge, cambridge university press, 1994. g. d ’ alessio and s. iezzi, “ over - indebtedness in italy : how widespread and persistent is it? ”, bank of italy, mimeo, 2015, and l. bartiloro, v. michelangeli and c. rampazzi “ the vulnerability of indebted households during the crisis : some evidence from the euro area ”, bank of italy, mimeo, 2015. see, for instance, the financial stability report or research documents such as that by s. magri and r. pico, “ the household credit market after five years of crisis and recession : evidence from the survey on household income and wealth ”, banca d ’ italia, questioni di economia e finanza ( occasional papers ) 241, 2014. i extensively discussed the problems in measuring inflation expectations in my ph. d. dissertation, later published as price expectations in rising inflation, amsterdam, north - holland, 1984. l. guiso, t. jappelli and d. terlizzese, “ earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving ”, in a. ando, l. guiso and i. visco ( eds ), saving and the accumulation of wealth. essays on italian household and government saving behavior, 214 – 245, cambridge, cambridge university press, 1994. bis central bankers ’ speeches spanish households. 13 yet we should not overlook the difficulties that respondents face in answering probabilistic questions. in the survey for 1989, 57 per cent of households anticipated a rise in income, by 6. 5 per cent on average, but as many as one out of five households did not answer. in the last wave of the survey the proportion of households which failed to provide an answer fell to below 5 per cent, but the overwhelming majority, 83 per cent, predicted no income change one year ahead. this might be reasonable given the recent income dynamics, but may also signal their difficulty to account for uncertain outcomes. there is a need for further research, but experimenting on measuring expectations is a worthy exercise. it has undoubtedly enhanced the survey ’ s reputation. indeed, charles manski included it among the few “ major platforms for methodological exploration and substantive research ” on the use of probabilistic formats to elicit expectations. 14 manski also mentioned only one survey of firms using probabilistic questioning to elicit business expectations

speech speech by governor lars rohde at the annual meeting of finance denmark 2018 check against delivery 3 december 2018 thank you for inviting me to speak here today. in an age when partnerships are discontinued, and walls are built between countries, i find it important to focus on the considerable advantages to our society and its continued development which rule - based international cooperation offers. i have chosen to talk about three topical issues which, in their separate ways, relate to cross - border cooperation and which are essential to financial stability in denmark. they are : anti - money laundering, crisis resolution of mortgage credit institutions and the banking union. but first i would like to express my appreciation of the good cooperation we have had in many areas. you contributed strongly to the process of connecting the danish krone to target2 - securities. it is a great step forward that danish banks are now able to settle securities via the single european settlement platform. many of you have also helped to launch kronos2, and we have jointly achieved significant results in the payments council. in the fsor, we have increased the cyber resilience of the financial sector, and we have agreed to perform sophisticated tests of the resilience of the individual institutions in the coming years – known as the red team tests. - - - - unfortunately, money laundering has been on everyone's lips in 2018. a simple search in infomedia shows that the danish word " hvidvask " has been used four times as frequently this year as in 2017. side 1 af 6 we have witnessed extensive misuse of the financial infrastructure for illegal activities. there has been and still is a need to strengthen efforts in this area. at danmarks nationalbank we are interested in this issue because money laundering can jeopardise financial stability. customer and investor confidence is an essential prerequisite for providing financial services. so, loss of confidence can be very harmful for a bank. if confidence in a single participant is eroded, this may rapidly have an impact on the rest of the sector. the reputation of the authorities and the country may also be severely affected. this became very clear to me at the imf annual meeting in october when i received many enquiries about the money laundering challenge in the danish financial sector. banks play a key role in the financial infrastructure. and with this role comes an important social responsibility. a responsibility for ensuring that their businesses are not used for illegal activities. the number of suspicious transactions reported to the anti - money laundering