as of january 2023 ( chart 11 ). even compared with around 2008, when the cpi rose triggered by higher import prices of crude oil and other items, price hikes have spread across a wider range of items. let us also look at other indicators that take into consideration the price change distribution. in terms of both the trimmed mean - - calculated by excluding items that belong to the upper and lower 10 percent of the price change distribution - - and the mode - - which is the inflation rate with the highest density in the distribution - - the year - on - year rates of change in the cpi have increased to around 3 percent and around 1. 5 percent, respectively ( chart 11 ). however, those increases have fallen short of a 4. 3 percent rise in the headline cpi. one thing that is clear from those indicators is that, even though the pass - through of cost increases has been spreading to a wider range of items, the overall cpi has been significantly pushed up by a small group of items such as energy. as will be touched on again later when i explain the outlook for prices, the contribution made by items that have led cpi inflation is likely to become markedly smaller as the rise in import prices subsides. consequently, the overall cpi inflation rate is expected to decelerate. while using the indicators that i just explained, the bank will continue to examine the underlying trend in prices. ii. outlook for and risks to economic activity and prices a. outlook next, i would like to turn to the outlook for japan's economic activity and prices. japan's economy is likely to continue recovering with the impact of covid - 19 and supplyside constraints waning, although it is expected to be affected by slowdowns in overseas economies and high commodity prices. from a medium - to long - term perspective, the economy is projected to continue growing at a pace above its potential as a virtuous cycle from income to spending intensifies gradually. as presented in the outlook for economic activity and prices ( outlook report ) decided by the bank at the january 2023 monetary policy meeting ( mpm ), the medians of the policy board members'forecasts for real gdp growth rates are 1. 7 percent for fy2023 and 1. 1 percent for fy2024 ( chart 12 ). the rate of increase in consumer prices is expected to decelerate noticeably for the time being, given that ( 1 ) the contribution from higher import prices, which

such as issuance conditions for corporate bonds. therefore, in order to improve market functioning while maintaining accommodative financial conditions, the bank decided to modify the conduct of yield curve control. as the range of 10 - year jgb yield fluctuations has been expanded, long - term interest rates have risen accordingly. however, in continuing with monetary easing under the framework of yield curve control going forward, the expansion has a greater merit of facilitating the transmission of monetary easing effects by improving the functioning of bond markets. as i have explained thus far, japan's economy has started to show signs of a virtuous cycle, as evidenced by the overall high levels of corporate profits and moves to increase wages. however, it is premature to conclude that the price stability target has been achieved. thus, i believe that, in its conduct of monetary policy for the time being, it is necessary for the bank to maintain monetary easing and thereby support the economy. thank you. economic activity, prices, and monetary policy in japan speech at a meeting with local leaders in fukushima march 1, 2023 nakagawa junko member of the policy board bank of japan chart 1 overseas economies world economic outlook global pmi y / y % chg. imf projections s. a., di world - 2 manufacturing - 4 cy 90 source : imf. services cy 07 note : figures for manufacturing are the j. p. morgan global manufacturing pmi. figures for services are the j. p. morgan global services business activity index. source : copyright © 2023 by s & p global market intelligence, a division of s & p global inc. all rights reserved. chart 2 corporate sector in japan corporate profits business conditions s. a., tril. yen s. a., tril. yen di ( " favorable " - " unfavorable " ), % points all industries manufacturing nonmanufacturing - 20 sales ( left scale ) " favorable " - 40 current profits ( right scale ) cy 07 " unfavorable " - 60 cy 90 notes : 1. based on the tankan. all enterprises. there is a discontinuity in the data for december 2003 due to a change in the survey framework. 2. shaded areas denote recession periods. source : bank of japan.. notes : 1. based on the financial statements statistics of corporations by industry, quarterly. excluding " finance and insurance. " 2. figures from 2009 / q2 onward exclude pure holding