the impact has differed from one country to another. when we look back, we see that the resilience of countries in the face of the crisis has been determined mainly by four structural factors. it is possible to examine them under four headings as ( 1 ) floating exchange rate regime ( 2 ) resilience of the banking system ( 3 ) countercyclical monetary policy and ( 4 ) room for maneuver provided by the fiscal discipline implemented in the pre - crisis period. countries implementing a fixed exchange rate regime have been hit more severely by the crisis compared to those implementing a floating exchange rate regime. in countries with free capital flows, a floating exchange rate regime, – by enabling monetary authorities to adopt a flexible approach in the face of a liquidity crunch in markets – acts as a safety valve preventing over - contraction of the economy, under rapidly deteriorating international liquidity conditions. as a matter of fact, in countries implementing a floating exchange rate regime, economic activity exhibited smaller fluctuations before and during the crisis. moreover, countries under a floating exchange rate regime experience a stronger economic recovery compared to those under a fixed exchange rate regime. the second structural factor that determines the resilience of countries against the crisis is the structure of the banking system. in this period, factors such as asset quality of the banking system, keeping leverage ratios at manageable levels, and proper implementation of regulatory and supervisory activities played an important role in containing the damage and credit crunch in financial markets. the last two factors that determine the level of impact of the crisis on countries are monetary and fiscal policy practices that are considered as cyclical movements in the economy. in those countries, which observed fiscal discipline, implemented countercyclical monetary policies, prevented excessive increases in private sector ’ s indebtedness ratios in the precrisis period, central banks and governments had the room for maneuver to implement monetary and fiscal policies that could recoup demand shocks. owing to the aforementioned reasons, many countries, including turkey, has been able to be resilient beyond expectations, in the face of the crisis. however, it was undoubtedly impossible to fully avoid the adverse effects of the crisis. in fact, an analysis of quarterly growth rates of world economies suggests that almost half of the economies contracted in the final quarter of 2008, and more than 90 percent in the first half of 2009. the first half of 2008 became a period where problems driven by the crisis were ignored by the markets. nevertheless, despite certain monetary policy measures that

. 2 points. i would like to conclude my speech with our assessment of inflation and monetary policy. in the first half of the year, we expect seasonally adjusted monthly inflation to hover below 4 percent on average, and around 3 percent except for january. until the end of may, when inflation will peak, some temporary effects will be observed, similar to what we saw in january. after may, we will enter a disinflation period in which we will see a rapid decline in annual headline inflation. in this period, both the favorable base effects and, more importantly, the continued decline in the underlying trend of inflation will be effective. in this process, the continued rebalancing in domestic demand, completed wage revisions and further improvement in expectations driven by the fall in headline inflation will play an important role. thus, firstly, we expect seasonally adjusted monthly inflation rate to fall below 2. 5 percent, and then around 1. 5 percent in the last quarter of the year. as inertia in services prices will be resolved in this process and the monetary stance will continue to be managed in line with the targets, the downtrend in the underlying trend of inflation towards historical averages will continue throughout 2025. our mandate and objective is to bring inflation down on the targeted path. we consider the rebalancing process in domestic demand, the normalization in credits, the transition to the turkish lira and the improvement in pricing behavior as a whole within the monetary transmission mechanism. thanks to our strong monetary tightening, the underlying trend of inflation, credit growth, and growth in imports of gold and consumption goods have significantly decreased in line with our projections since the previous inflation report. 11 / 12 bis - central bankers'speeches the transition to turkish lira deposits is also taking place as we had projected. we believe that the current level of tightness and the tools at our disposal are strong enough to ensure that all these processes continue as anticipated. accordingly, we will maintain the current level of the policy rate until there is a significant decline in the underlying trend of inflation and until inflation expectations converge to the projected forecast range. as for deposit rates and credit supply, we will not tolerate any volatility that may undermine monetary transmission. in this framework, we will continue with strong liquidity sterilization in a preemptive manner. the monetary tightness will be reassessed if a significant deterioration in the inflation outlook is foreseen. before concluding my remarks, i would