than previously estimated. the global environment becomes more uncertain because of the shifting of global economic landscape. i still remember, two years ago, we have had a discussion about the two - speed world recovery, i. e. slow recovery in advanced economies, and much faster recovery in emerging bis central bankers ’ speeches economies. now, the situation has turned around. the united states ’ economy has strengthened, the european economy has shown signs of escaping the crisis, while emerging economies have slowed down. in other words, the phenomenon of a three - speed world recovery has emerged [ graph 1 ]. table 1 revision of global growth forecast 2013 graph 1 a three speed world recovery 7. second, the wide - spread uncertainties as consequences of the us policy ’ s indecisiveness, not only related to the withdrawal of ultra - accommodative monetary stimulus but also the debt ceiling crisis and the us government shutdown. these prolonged unfavorable circumstances have triggered global investors to re - evaluate risks and caused excessive reactions, which have led to turmoil in the global financial markets, including in indonesia [ graph 2 ]. bis central bankers ’ speeches graph 2. capital flows & the idr / usd exchange rate 8. third, the uncertainty of global commodity prices. in line with the sluggish global economic growth and heightened volatility in the global financial markets, commodity prices have continued its downward trend, confirming the end of commodities super - cycle era [ graph 3 ]. graph 3 global commodity prices distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 9. the three main global issues i mentioned previously have inevitably affected the performance of indonesia ’ s economy. amidst the robust domestic demand, intense global pressures have put more burden on the current account. bis central bankers ’ speeches 10. the current account deficits have occurred since the fourth quarter of 2011 [ graph 4 ]. furthermore, sliding commodity prices which have started since the beginning of 2012 have affected exports that finally led to growing current account deficits. graph 4 the current account 11. these substantial current account deficits are not only caused by trade balance deficits but also overburdened by prolonged services and income balance deficits [ graph 5 ]. on the other hand, foreign portfolio investment flows have fluctuated associated with changes in sentiment, known as risk - on and risk - off behavior in global financial markets. together with the issues of current account deficits, turbulence in domestic financial market creates deterioration of the indonesia balance of payment posture. graph 5

boediono : macroeconomic impact of climate change – opportunities and challenges ( keynote speech ) keynote speech by prof dr boediono, governor of bank indonesia, at bank indonesia ’ s annual international seminar on “ macroeconomic impact of climate change – opportunities and challenges ”, nusa dua, bali, 1 - 2 august 2008. * * * fellow governors, distinguished speakers and scholars, ladies and gentlemen, good morning! it is indeed a pleasure and an honor for me to welcome all of you to bank indonesia ’ s annual international seminar in this beautiful and majestic island of bali. this seminar has become one of bank indonesia ’ s annual traditions, and this year ’ s event marks its 6th “ anniversary ”. it is truly heartwarming to see the presence of distinguished guests in the audience – fellow governors, deputy governors distinguished speakers and scholars from various world leading universities. we are truly delighted by your attendance. we are looking forward to having lively discussions and hearing your valuable insights. having this good mix of participants we can surely hope for richer policy perspective on global warming and climate change. in this same island last year, during the 2007 un climate change conference, 187 nations have acknowledged the unequivocal evidence of global warming and risks of severe climate change impacts. the bali road map produced by that conference was a significant milestone in the global drive to address the issues arising from global warming and climate change. the inter - governmental panel on climate change ( ippc ) concluded that global warming could cause significant change to biological and physical systems, such as an increase in tropical cyclone intensity, changes in precipitation pattern, salinity of the sea, wind patterns, the reproductive period of animals and plants, species distribution and population, epidemics, and also influence various ecosystems in high latitude ( including the arctic and antarctic ), high altitude locations, as well as coastal ecosystems. some of these effects will only be felt in the long run, some in the not too long run and some, such as the rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather with all of its consequences, are already evident now. however, we need to recognize the fact that there is an asymmetry in the capability of citizens and governments in the developing and developed countries in coping and mitigating the crises ’ adverse impacts. it is now agreed that to effectively respond to such a global challenge, we need a global and coordinated agenda of actions. in developing such an agenda, we ought to bear in mind that for