monthly bulletin. in this respect the ecb ’ s strategic framework has in my view important advantages compared to an inflation targeting strategy. the ecb strategy permanently and comprehensively captures longer run risks to price stability within its monetary analysis. in the inflation targeting framework - to the contrary - reacting to potential asset price booms will always have the flavour of introducing an exceptional escape clause in the strategy. proponents of inflation targeting have recommended to simply extend the horizon of the inflation forecast beyond the standard one to two year policy horizon. i doubt that serious inflation forecasts can be derived at this horizon given the uncertainty surrounding asset price boom periods. 28 thus i fully share the view that the longer horizon in inflation targeting is basically a substitute for a more structured assessment of risks to price stability. 29 this risk assessment is part of the ecb ’ s monetary analysis. in order to maintain the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, it is important to foster the public understanding of the implications of the ecb ’ s monetary policy strategy. the fact that our monetary analysis uses a comprehensive assessment of the liquidity situation that may, under certain circumstances provide early information on developing financial instability is an important element in this endeavour. conclusions let me conclude. experience with past asset price boom episodes tells us that we should be very careful in calling a boom, which is observable, a bubble. such labelling will always contain a substantial degree of arbitrary judgment. nevertheless, empirical evidence also reveals that it is possible to find characteristics of potentially dangerous asset price boom developments, which are useful from a policy maker ’ s point of view to identify risks to long run price stability. the methodologies to identify those threatening booms certainly need to be refined. in particular, we have to know more to which extent we can rely on empirical analyses which, out of necessity or lack of sufficient recent boom - bust cycles, have to pool information from various boom episodes, happening in different countries under very specific and furthermore time - varying financial systems. not all boom or bubble episodes are threatening financial stability. policy makers should not fall into the fallacy of attempting to eliminate all risk from the financial system. either they would be unsuccessful ( moral hazard ) or they are likely to hamper the appropriate functioning of a market economy where risk taking is of the essence. with regard to the optimal monetary policy response to asset price bubbles, i would argue that its informational requirements and its possible - and difficult to assess - side effects are in reality very onerous. empirical

also started out with reform ambitions. yes, indeed. lots of governments have good intentions. the oecd has commented positively on that recently. above all, reform means getting people on board. i sometimes take a taxi and i often talk to the taxi driver. many of them have paid huge sums for a licence, which they intend to sell later to guarantee themselves a pension. it ’ s only logical that the taxi drivers will fight for their jobs. if you suddenly changed the rules to try to break the taxi market open, it would really cost a lot of money. let ’ s assume that in the paris region alone there are more than 30, 000 taxis. the costs 3 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches for a licence can be as high as €200, 000. if you want to buy out those rights, you ’ re already talking about billions. those are amounts that are suddenly macroeconomically relevant. this is what you also see with labour market reforms. the incumbents, the insiders, are protected when there are reforms, while the newcomers who want a job have to be more flexible. belgium has been held up as a champion of reform. were you surprised? a bit. at the same time it is good to acknowledge that there have been reforms. nevertheless we know that there are still huge challenges. belgium is still some way behind germany, where there ’ s money left over and they don ’ t know what to do with it. which reforms are needed most urgently now? there are several. reforms to pensions, the labour market and justice for example are recognised as being crucial in italy. education and training are also crucial in my view. flanders has a good education system, but training for jobs on the shop floor could be better. should we be worried about automation and robotisation? productivity growth has been the source of wealth since time immemorial. but there are other ways of countering negative redistribution effects than blocking progress. that ’ s what we have the government ’ s redistribution policies for. there are also things that robots can ’ t do. human interaction will remain important in many service jobs. these are currently often quite badly paid jobs, such as waiting tables or caring for the elderly in retirement homes. there is a reason why these professions are known as “ bottleneck jobs ”. whether their wages will rise if demand increases further? i don ’ t know. in any case in the future it will be not just about having the right skills on