own shares will diminish, and they will reduce their consumption. it will also be less attractive to invest in new production capacity. share price movements may also have a negative impact on business and household expectations. registered unemployment has edged up over the past year, to 3. 3 per cent in october ( seasonally adjusted 3. 5 per cent ). unemployment has risen in all counties and among all occupational groups, except in primary industries. in sør - trøndelag unemployment was 3. 7 per cent. unemployment is highest in oslo, aust - agder and finnmark. it has increased most in oslo and akershus in the course of the past year. even though unemployment in manufacturing has edged up in recent months, the increase in unemployment so far is primarily the result of restructuring and reduced activity in some service sectors. unemployment has increased most in eastern norway, where there is a heavy concentration of these industries. the aviation industry is undergoing restructuring. the ict industry has reduced activity considerably over the last year. in spite of the slight increase in unemployment, household borrowing has been high over a long period. over the past year, growth in credit to households has stood at over 11 per cent. house prices remain high. household financial saving ( net lending ) has dropped to almost zero in the past couple of years. strong growth in household consumption will exert continued pressures on prices and wages. there are clear indications that household income is rising substantially. at the same time, the level of financial saving appears to be low. all in all, this suggests that growth in household demand for goods and services will remain high. there will probably be a shift in demand towards imported goods and services. in the central government budget for 2003, the allocations for the purchase of goods and services and for transfers show underlying growth of 4. 6 per cent and estimated real growth of 0. 5 per cent. the effect of the draft budget on demand is estimated to be mildly positive. the central government budget includes a proposal to increase the use of petroleum revenues by nok 2 billion in real terms in 2003. the structural deficit in 2002 appears to be higher than was assumed this spring. the projections for the use of petroleum revenues up to 2010 have been revised downwards considerably since the long - term programme, the national budget for 2002 and the revised national budget for 2002 were presented. the krone has appreciated considerably since summer 2000. there may be several reasons for this. relationships in the foreign exchange market

in the private service sector and the retail trade. productivity growth in the private sector was higher in norway than in the us through the 1990s, for example. high productivity growth in many service industries has contributed to this. the growth rates for the 1990s must to some extent be seen in connection with cyclical developments during this period which started with a recession and ended with a tendency towards overheating in the labour market at the end of the period. productivity growth has been particularly strong in the retail sector, financial services and postal and telecommunications services. these are industries that have undergone extensive changes in structure, technology and market adaptation. it has not been as strong in transport and commercial services. these changes have been associated with productivity gains - and thereby higher wages and income growth - for larger groups. in addition, this has contributed to keeping inflation at a low level and spurring large new investment projects. this may also have amplified the strong expansion in the norwegian economy at the end of the 1990s, which could imply that the sharp growth in services has contributed to the relatively high real rate of interest in norway in recent years. we know that variations in productivity can influence the real exchange rate. when an economy goes through a period of high productivity growth and high returns on many investment projects, real interest rates will normally increase. over time, the real interest rate must reflect the economy's longterm growth potential. when real interest rates rise in our country relative to other countries, we have to expect that the real exchange rate will move in line with the same pattern that can be observed when we increase the use of petroleum revenues in the domestic economy. there is symmetry here. a decline in productivity growth will have the opposite effect. developments in the 1990s may, over a very long time horizon, prove to have been an episode - and the considerable structural changes in the services sector a one - off event. this would imply that the economy will tend to return to its previous path. but it is also possible that we will see a new round of pronounced productivity gains thanks to new technology and new structures.