john c williams : all about data remarks by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the binghamton university, binghamton, new york, 10 october 2024. * * * as prepared for delivery introduction good morning. i'm so pleased to be here at binghamton university, a true gem of the suny system. meeting with students, educators, and business and community leaders is a valuable and enjoyable part of my job. the new york fed represents the federal reserve system's second district, which includes new york state, northern new jersey, western connecticut, puerto rico, and the u. s. virgin islands. this is a diverse region made up of many smaller local economies. therefore, it's important for me and my colleagues at the new york fed to collect data and learn about the challenges and opportunities facing all of the communities we serve. that said, monetary policy affects everyone, and the federal reserve is committed to using its tools to achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. today, i will talk about monetary policy and how the fed is working to fulfill this dual mandate. i'll also give you my outlook on the u. s. economy. before i do, i will give the standard fed disclaimer that the views i express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal open market committee ( fomc ) or others in the federal reserve system. obsessing over data as i've traveled around the southern tier region, i've enjoyed seeing the emergence of the colors of autumn. tracking fall foliage is a hobby for many. what i like is that it's all about data. " leaf peepers " submit field reports on changing color conditions, and experts pore over the information. one forecast predicts we will hit peak foliage in four days. 1 at the fed, we're equally obsessed with data. in our case, we study data about the economy - whether here in the district, across the country, or around the world. so, i'll highlight some of the data that help my understanding of how the economy is performing relative to our dual mandate goals, as well as what policy actions we can take to achieve these goals. when inflation became unacceptably high and the labor market exceptionally tight, the fomc acted with resolve to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent longer - run target. the committee

' s strong actions have helped bring the economy much closer to our 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches goals. imbalances between supply and demand in the economy have mostly dissipated, even as the economy and employment have continued to grow. and inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index, has declined from over 7 percent in june of 2022 to just 2 - 1 / 4 percent in the latest reading. there's still some distance to go to reach our goal of 2 percent, but we're definitely moving in the right direction. the data paint a picture of an economy that has returned to balance, or in a word that the english majors in the room may appreciate, " equipoise. " in light of the progress we have seen in reducing inflation and restoring balance to the economy, the fomc decided at its most recent meeting to lower the interest rate that it sets. simply put, this action will help maintain the strength of the economy and labor market while inflation moves back to 2 percent on a sustainable basis. moving to price stability i'll go further into our policy decision and what it means for the economic outlook in a minute. but first, i'll give more details about each side of our dual mandate, starting with inflation. i'll use an onion analogy that i have found useful over the past two years to demonstrate how inflation's three distinct layers are normalizing at different rates. 2 the onion's outer layer represents globally traded commodities. as the economy started to rebound from pandemic shutdowns and demand began to soar, inflation surged, then rose further when russia invaded ukraine. since then, supply and demand have come into balance, and these prices have generally been flat or falling. the middle onion layer is made up of core goods, excluding commodities. demand for goods rose sharply as the economy emerged from the pandemic downturn - just as global pandemic - related supply - chain disruptions significantly hampered supply. but, as seen in the new york fed's global supply chain pressure index, those supply pressures have eased, and core goods inflation has returned to pre - pandemic norms. 3 the inner onion layer comprises core services. although this category is taking the longest to normalize, the disinflationary process is well underway here too. for example, measures of underlying inflation that tend to be heavily influenced by core services inflation today average around 2 -