most affected by the pandemic. evidence suggests that this access to credit has supported the operational continuity of these businesses and helped mitigate the drop in investment. for its part, the asset purchase program announced by the central bank in june has helped to improve financing conditions in the banking and corporate bond market. in this context, the outlook for investment has also improved with respect since the last mp report, based on the recent evolution of imports of machinery and equipment, large - scale energy - related projects and the recently announced public investments and reactivation measures for the period 2021 - 22. considering the performance of the economy in the second quarter, the gradual withdrawal of the most stringent sanitary measures and the temporary boost from income support policies, the projection scenario limits the economic contraction foreseen for 2020. thus, it is estimated that this year gdp will fall between - 4. 5 and - 5. 5 % ( between - 5. 5 and - 7. 5 % in the june mp report ). this range remains wider than usual, reflecting the greater uncertainty surrounding the impacts of the pandemic. by 2021, gdp will grow between 4 and 5 % ( between 4. 75 and 6. 25 % in the june mp report ), and in 2022 it will grow between 3 and 4 % ( same as in mp report ), respectively. 1 fondo de garantia para pequenos empresarios ( guarantee fund for small entrepreneurs ). the evolution of activity will be determined by progress in controlling the pandemic and the ability of businesses and households to overcome its adverse effects. the projection assumes that the sectors where human interaction is most important will continue to be affected as long as there is no vaccine, so it will take several quarters for them to return to pre - pandemic activity levels. at the same time, both businesses and individuals will be able to recover their income levels as activity recovers, a process in which monetary policy support will be critical. greater global control of the pandemic will also allow the external momentum to improve significantly next year compared to 2020. as for spending, after contracting by 4. 2 % this year, total consumption will resume positive growth in 2021 and 2022, consistent with a recovery in employment and household income, and with the positive short - term effect of the withdrawal of pension savings. plus, the low base that will be left by this year ’ s contraction. the projection is that the recovery of economic growth will result in

##s data. figure 13 new housing sales in santiago ( thousands of units ) turnkey other source : chilean chamber of construction. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 14 housing prices ( index, base 2008 avg = 100 ) cchc bcch rm bcch previous fs report sources : central bank of chile ( bcch ) and chilean chamber of construction ( cchc ). figure 15 household indebtedness ( rdi ) and financial burden ( rci ) ( percent of disposable income ) rdi rci ( right axis ) source : central bank of chile based on sbif, suseso and svs data. bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 16 cross - country comparison of capital adequacy indexes ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( percent ) median 25th and 75th percentiles chile min - max ( 1 ) effective equity over risk - weighted assets. 2016 figure uses effective capital increases in 2016 for chile, ceteris paribus, plus the effect of the ccf reduction ccf ( 20bp ). ( 2 ) korean rep. and iceland with last available data for 2014. ( 3 ) maximum means 90th percentile. source : central bank of chile based on sbif and imf data. figure 17 banks with car equal to or higher than 10 % under stress scenario ( * ) ( percent of system's assets ) ( * ) six - month figures. results of stress tests presented in financial stability reports. source : central bank of chile based on sbif data. bis central bankers ’ speeches