then do you think it is working? ladies and gentlemen, we are partners and stakeholders in this transformation and therefore we must be careful of the messages we send. we need to have frank and open dialogue on where we are going, how we get there, the remaining challenges we face and how to address them. the central bank remains committed to consultation with you and on that note, i want to thank your president for the way he has engaged the bank as a key contributor to the foreign exchange market development committee. he has been leveraging the wealth of information and expertise freely available at the bank and we in turn have learned a great deal from him, which has helped to improve the service we deliver. thank you. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

in march 2008 to around us $ 712 in november, but is currently trading above us920 per ounce. however other commodities have not fared as well. from a high of us $ 2250 per ounce in march 2008, platinum prices declined to us $ 771 per ounce, before recovering to current levels of around us $ 1130 per ounce. aluminium prices reached levels in excess of us $ 3300 per ton in july 2008, but by february 2009 the price had declined to below us $ 1300 per ton and currently around levels of us $ 1540 per ton. similar trends are evident in the behaviour of other commodity prices. of course, oil price developments have benefited us. having reached levels of almost us $ 150 per barrel in july last year, international oil prices declined to below us $ 35 per barrel, and are now at levels around us $ 57 per barrel. commodity prices in general are likely to remain subdued in line with global growth 2. 6 the turmoil on the international financial markets has also impacted on the destination and size of capital flows. not surprisingly, capital flows to the developing and emerging market economies have declined, with the international institute of finance expecting flows to emerging markets to decline from over us $ 900 billion in 2007 to around us $ 165 billion in 2009. this has implications for exchange rates and the financing of current account deficits in these countries, at a time when export markets are under pressure. capital is in fact flowing back to the us, the source of the current crisis. we are told that this is a “ flight to quality ” or “ risk aversion ”. an irony indeed. 3. the implications for the south african economy 3. 1 given south africa ’ s close trade and financial links with the global economy, it is not surprising that the south african economy would be affected by these adverse developments. after 4 years of gdp growth around or in excess of 5 per cent, the growth rate declined to 3, 1 per cent in 2008, with a contraction of 1, 8 per cent in the fourth quarter. current indications are that the negative trend continued in the first quarter of this year. the high frequency data indicate that the manufacturing sector in particular remains under pressure : recent data from statistics south africa show that manufacturing output in the first quarter of 2009 declined by 6, 8 per cent relative to the previous quarter, while mining production declined by 12, 8 per cent over the same period. the utilisation of manufacturing productive capacity declined to its lowest level