, the share of green energy in total energy demand and energy intensity of gdp. in the baseline scenario, the indian economy grows at the rate of 6. 6 per cent per year – which is its average growth rate over the last decade – but without taking actions to fulfil its environmental commitments. a decline in energy usage per unit of economic activity by 2. 3 per cent annually is assumed with steady carbon sequestration at 0. 3 gigatonnes. this scenario is associated with increasing emissions. an alternate scenario retains the gdp growth assumption of 6. 6 per cent per year. it focuses on meeting immediate ndc objectives like reducing emission intensity and raising renewable energy's share to 50 per cent in electricity generation by 2030. achieving net zero emissions by 2070 would require even more energy efficiency, with energy intensity declining to 5. 0 per cent by 2070. green energy's share should reach 70 per cent by 2070. under this scenario, greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2032 - 33 and india reaches net zero by 2070. energy consumption in 2070 is projected to be 1. 8 times the level of 2021 - 22, compared to 7. 2 times in the baseline scenario, but it will be difficult to maintain the longterm growth rate of 6. 6 per cent. a second alternate scenario assumes that india would achieve annual real gdp growth of 9. 6 per cent between 2023 - 24 to 2047 - 48 which is required for it to become an advanced economy by 2047. with respect to climate goals, however, the assumptions in this scenario are the same as in the baseline. higher growth would translate into even higher energy requirements and emissions. the total primary energy requirement and net ghg emissions are estimated to be 12. 5 times and 10. 5 times higher, respectively, than their levels in 2021 - 22. the best scenario, assuming a gdp growth of 9. 6 per cent per annum over the period 2023 - 48 while adhering to the ndc commitments, will require more aggressive efforts than the current ndc targets, involving sharper declines in energy intensity and a higher proportion of green energy. energy intensity, which has been steadily declining since the 1990s, needs to decrease by 5. 4 per cent annually, and green energy's share must rise to around 82 per cent by 2070. energy consumption in 2070 would be 3. 1 times higher than in 2021 - 22. india ’ s aspiration to become an advanced

towards a greener cleaner india 1 good morning to you all! i am delighted to be here again at the prestigious annual central banking seminar, a flagship event of the federal reserve bank of new york for which it has earned global renown. it is truly an honour to interact with central bankers from around the world, our community of tomorrow. you embody the theme of india ’ s g20 presidency – vasudhaivya kutumbakam : the world is one family. the climate is striking back in my past interactions in this seminar, i have dwelled on macroeconomic stability ; price stability ; exchange rate stability ; financial stability – all essentially issues centered around the core competence of conservative central bankers from which we are reluctant to stray. after all, central banks stand for stability. today, however, i will venture to address a theme which threatens to overwhelm all these aspects of stability – the sum of all fears, to borrow the name of a gripping 2002 movie starring ben affleck and morgan freeman. it is a theme about which several central banks have expressed reservations about engaging in order to avoid mission creep, while others have expressed inability in view of lacking the instruments inaugural address delivered by michael debabrata patra, deputy governor, reserve bank of india ( rbi ) at the new york fed central banking seminar organised by the federal reserve bank, new york, on october 9, 2023 at new york, usa. valuable comments received from soumasree tewari, ranjeeta mishra, harendra behera, asish thomas george, and editorial help from vineet kumar srivastava are gratefully acknowledged. to deal with it. the stark ominous reality is that the climate is striking back. central banks cannot be immune or inactive any longer. climate change is not new. the earth ’ s climate has changed in the past, and quite drastically. the smithsonian national museum of natural history has released findings about the earth ’ s temperature over the last 500 million years 2. they show warm temperatures dominating most of the time, with global temperatures repeatedly rising above 26. 6 degree celsius ( °c ) and even above 32°c – much too warm for ice sheets or perennial sea ice. in fact, polar caps cannot exist when the temperature crosses 18°c. this is the fever line. about 250 million years ago, it was too hot for even swamps to exist! in the last 100 million years, global temperatures have peaked twice. in