5 de octubre de 2017 presentation of the iii seminar in economic history banco de espana luis m. linde governor good morning and welcome to the banco de espana for our iii seminar in economic history. the seminars in economic history organised by the banco de espana were launched three years ago, in 2015. the first one was held on the occasion of the retirement of pedro tedde de lorca, who for many years was the member of the directorate general of economics and statistics in charge of the economic history programme and that, by the way, has been recently elected as a member of the spanish royal academy of history. last year, in october, we celebrated the second edition of the seminar. the main purpose of these seminars is to bring together economic historians from academia and economists from the bank to engage in research into economic episodes of the past with relevance for the economic problems of today. for many years the banco de espana has devoted substantial resources to research in economic history. this tradition goes back to the mid - 1960s when a project was launched to publish, in one volume, a series of essays tracing the origin and development of the banco de espana, one of the oldest banks of issue, originally established in 1782 as “ banco de san carlos ”. the result was el banco de espana. una historia economica and ensayos sobre la economia espanola a mediados del siglo xix, both published in 1970. a few years later, a group of researchers : rafael anes, carlos fernandez pulgar, diego mateo del peral, pedro tedde and gabriel tortella, undertook a far - reaching project on the history of the spanish banking system. the result was la banca espanola en la restauracion, published in 1974. since then, a number of books have been published by the bank of spain, sometimes in collaboration with commercial editors. to mention just two of these books : el servicio de estudios del banco de espana, 1930 - 2000 ; and un siglo de historia del sistema financiero espanol ( in spanish and english ). moreover, the early history of the bank has been covered by three volumes written by tedde de lorca : el banco de san carlos ( 1782 - 1829 ) ; el banco espanol de san fernando, 1829 - 1856 ; and el banco de espana y el estado liberal, 1847 - 1874. the banco de espana has also shown

unemployment rates are at a high. on the prices front, sluggish demand and labour market slack are strongly influencing areawide inflation developments. the growth rate of the harmonised index of consumer prices has stood at a level below 1 % since october 2013, with figures that have generally tended to surprise on the downside. as in the case of activity, the results of the projection exercise under way will allow for calibration of the effects on the current price scenarios and, in particular, on the risk – flagged by the ecb council at its recent meetings – that the area may become immersed in a prolonged period of too - low inflation. turning to the spanish economy, we are all mindful that the crisis that broke in mid - 2008 was of unprecedented depth and extent in our recent history and caused acute losses in activity and employment. fortunately, since the second half of 2013, the spanish economy has perceptibly been experiencing a recovery, which began with positive, moderate quarter - onquarter rates of change in gdp as from 2013 q3 and which has continued in 2014 to date. this recent improvement in activity rests on a broad set of factors : some, such as the drastic correction of the external imbalance, have been helping underpin production for some time ; others, such as the progressive normalisation of the financial environment, are more recent. bis central bankers ’ speeches here, both the easing of grave uncertainty, which at one point threatened the current configuration of the euro area, and the restoration of confidence in our banking system following the restructuring and recapitalisation drive undertaken, which culminated in january, have proved decisive. against this background, the contributions to activity of external demand and national demand are being re - balanced. national demand is showing a brisker pace of recovery than initially envisaged, based on the increase in household consumption and investment in equipment over the past two quarters, and on some slowing in the fiscal adjustment following the revision of the adjustment path last summer. in fact, household spending, in a setting of improved confidence resulting largely from the gradual improvement in the labour market and from some recovery in disposable income, is showing moderate growth, despite the fact that the necessary reduction of household debt is still exerting something of a contractionary effect on expenditure. further, investment in capital goods is looking buoyant, in light of the improved business climate and increased investment activity by exporting firms. the contractionary course of residential investment has slowed