lars rohde : developments in the world economy, the danish economy and in its mortgage credit system speech by mr lars rohde, governor of the national bank of denmark, at the annual meeting of the danish mortgage banks ’ federation, copenhagen, 3 april 2014. * * * the international economy is recovering. the upswing is gaining momentum in the usa, and euro area gdp has increased in the last three quarters. with the exception of greece, southern europe was also picking up at the end of 2013. on the other hand, growth has declined in the emerging economies, mainly as a result of weaker development in domestic demand. the us economy is now so strong that the federal reserve in january began the previously announced tapering of its asset purchases. at the same time, some emerging economies – including argentina, brazil and turkey – saw capital outflows and pronounced weakening of their currencies. this should also be viewed in the context of a deteriorated growth outlook and internal imbalances in these economies. but the countries affected represent only some 5 per cent of global trade, so the derived effects of this turmoil on the advanced economies are presumably limited. the same applies to the turmoil in ukraine. so far, it has not led to large fluctuations in the international financial markets, except in russia. in the euro area, price inflation has decreased in the last couple of years, to 0. 5 per cent in march. core inflation has also declined. besides subdued wage developments, the low rate of inflation is attributable to downward pressure on import prices, to some extent reflecting the appreciation of the euro. in addition, factors such as the freer movement of labour and stronger international competition exert sustained downward pressure on import prices and hence on the overall rate of wage and price increase. in denmark, economic activity is picking up, although the growth pattern has been somewhat uneven. there are positive signs in the labour market, with falling unemployment and a rise in the number of people in employment, especially in the private sector. but the number of part - time employees has grown. private consumption has not recovered yet, although the foundation for increased consumption is in place. the level of private savings has been high for some years. interest rates remain historically low, while real wages are set to rise, partly due to low – but nevertheless positive – price inflation. add to this positive consumer expectations and rising net wealth. although the households ’ average gross debt ratio remains high, and some households may have

jens thomsen : brief overview of the danish economy statement by mr jens thomsen, member of the board of governors of the national bank of denmark, at the meeting of the danish economic council, copenhagen, 5 december 2006. * * * developments in 2006 reflect extraordinarily high demand in the danish economy. the growth in demand will continue in 2007, but it is forecast that gdp growth will fall to approximately 2 per cent, leaving the rest of demand to be covered by net imports. this indicates that the danish economy is close to its capacity limit. higher wage increases are also expected. if the growth in demand for danish goods exceeds productivity growth, the pressure on the labour market will increase, unless the supply of labour is expanded. this labour requirement can hardly be met domestically, and it is difficult to judge how far sufficient resources can be provided from abroad. it is stated in line with danmarks nationalbank that even if the economy has become more flexible there is still a considerable risk of overheating. such overheating will, as stated, lead to significantly higher wage increases, and thereby an extended period of low growth. on this basis danmarks nationalbank has recommended that demand be curtailed. the economic council also recommends a tightening of fiscal policy.