. global measures of uncertainty have fallen from their record highs earlier in the year, but remain at elevated levels. and the recovery is incomplete because there is still much ground to recover. for the euro area, a similar assessment applies. the incoming data show a strong recovery, but also one that is uneven, uncertain and incomplete. our latest macroeconomic projections signal that output will rebound in the third and fourth quarters by 8. 4 % and 3. 1 %, respectively, broadly in line with the expected pace set out in the june projections. growth is projected to average - 8 % in 2020, 5 % in 2021 and 3. 2 % in 2022. but only towards the end of the projection horizon is output projected to return to its pre - pandemic level. both hard and soft indicators have rebounded sharply since april, but in most cases they remain notably below pre - pandemic levels. for example, by june industrial production had recovered around two - thirds of the trough, but still remained approximately 11 % down on february. highfrequency indicators such as mobility data, electricity consumption and credit card transactions displayed progressive improvement in july and august, although these data are highly seasonal which prevents us from drawing strong conclusions. the unevenness of the recovery is highlighted by the divergence between services and industry, in contrast to the crisis a decade ago when activity in these sectors moved in tandem. the 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches services pmi declined to 50. 5 in august from 54. 7 in july, while the manufacturing pmi continued to improve marginally. retail trade has returned to pre - pandemic levels but expenditure on several consumer services remains exceptionally low. with consumer and business services accounting for 55 % of the euro area economy, it is clear that a full recovery requires a more significant rebound in these sectors. indeed, around five million fewer people were employed in the second quarter of this year relative to the end of 2019, and if the current strength of the rebound does not continue – or fails to spread across all sectors – it is unlikely that they will all be re - employed in the near term. while the various job - retention schemes introduced by governments have so far been effective in cushioning the fall in income and preventing a more precipitous decline in employment, and the numbers of people enrolled in those schemes are falling as activity picks up, keeping job support schemes in place is critical to avoid a sharp increase in unemployment later in the year.

myun - shik yoon : opening address - bok - snu institute for research in finance and economics international conference " changing inflation dynamics " opening address by mr myun - shik yoon, senior deputy governor of the bank of korea, at the bok - snu institute for research in finance and economics international conference " changing inflation dynamics ", seoul, 3 november 2017. * * * introduction good morning, ladies and gentlemen. i am very pleased that the bank of korea and seoul national university are co - hosting this international conference today on inflation dynamics, which have recently drawn attention from academia and central banks around the world. i welcome you all most sincerely. let me express my special gratitude to professor chan wook park, vice president of seoul national university, who will deliver some welcome remarks shortly. i would also like to thank professor kiyotaki, our keynote speaker, and all of our session moderators, speakers, discussants and panelists. i am very grateful as well to professor yeongseop rhee, director of the snu institute for research in finance and economics, and his staff, for their efforts in so thoroughly preparing this conference. recent inflation conditions the global economy has been emerging recently from a long - term economic slowdown, as economic conditions in both advanced and emerging market economies are now improving. this is assessed as due in large part to the active and bold monetary policies to achieve economic recovery pursued by the world ’ s central banks, which have been often referred to as ‘ the only game in town. ’ when we look at inflation, however, we find that it has not emerged from its much reduced level seen since the global financial crisis. and there have thus been active discussions recently on the weakened linkage between economic activities and prices, and on the changes in inflation dynamics that have led to talk of so - called “ missing inflation. ” in korea as well, our economic activities continue to improve steadily, thanks to the favorable global conditions for example and despite the recent uncertainties surrounding our domestic and overseas conditions. but core inflation, which reflects our demand - side inflationary pressures, is still in the mid - 1 % range. research on the recent persistently low inflation discussions of the causes for the divergence between economic conditions and prices are developing actively these days. the most representative argument concerns a so - called phillips curve flattening, involving a weakened relationship between economic slack and inflation. specifically, it is said that the degree to which economic