according to eurosystem calculations, the output gap will return to close to zero by the end of the year ( - 0. 6 % ). the non - standard monetary policy that we have been conducting since 2014 is contributing to this acceleration of growth in the euro area, by fostering very favourable financing conditions and by supporting domestic demand. in concrete terms, this acceleration results in more jobs – over 6 million jobs created in the euro area since the start of 2013 – and in a pick - up in investment. corporate investment in particular, decisive for supply capacity, is clearly recovering : up 4. 7 % in 2015, 6 % in 2016, and is expected to be up 4 % in 2017 and 2018. [ slide ] this improvement in investment is underpinned notably by ongoing growth in lending to the private sector, at 2. 5 % year - on - year in august 2017 for firms and at 2. 7 % for households, with interest rates also remaining very low. we are also observing favourable developments in inflation, which is gradually moving back towards our target of 2 % over the medium term [ slide ]. after peaking at the start of 2017, the inflation rate stood at 1. 5 % year - on - year in september. this performance remains below our inflation aim, partly reflecting headwinds due to the past appreciation of the exchange rate. however, for 2017 as a whole, euro area inflation, at 1. 5 %, should be much higher than a year ago. for the next few years, we foresee inflation at 1. 2 % in 2018 and at 1. 5 % in 2019 – with a change in composition : less “ energy ” inflation, more underlying inflation. this represents a first success : our monetary policy measures have succeeded in warding off the risk of deflation which was still threatening the euro area last year – we mustn ’ t forget that inflation was declining in april 2016, standing at - 0. 2 %. that said, despite the progress made towards our target, it is still incomplete. underlying inflation, excluding energy and food, has admittedly increased – rising from 0. 8 % in the first quarter of 2017 to 1. 1 % in september 2017 – but it page 3 sur 8 still remains at subdued levels, despite the strong recovery in activity and employment. a significant factor is the relatively low nominal wage growth. among the cyclical factors, i would like to mention two in particular : first, persistent slack in the labour market

banking union. here too, progress could be rapid. - a fiscal accelerator, once we have increased trust between member states and made headway towards greater economic convergence : the euro area budget could be used to finance, for the benefit of all countries, certain “ european common goods ” such as digital technology, energy transition, security, migration controls. - an institutional accelerator : i. e. first and foremost a euro area finance minister, president of the eurogroup and member of the commission, page 8 sur 8 backed by a european treasury ; but also a euro area parliament group, in order to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the institutions and decisions. the latter two accelerators, fiscal and institutional, would require treaty changes, unless they were to be very limited. but this must not stop us from making progress straightway on the first two, in order to breathe new life into economic union. * * i would like to conclude my speech today by quoting stefan zweig, one of the most famous austrian authors. he wrote a beautiful text after his visit to the banque de france in paris in 1932. viii but he above all paid tribute to his home town in the following words : “ for the genius of vienna — a specifically musical one — was always that it harmonized all the national and lingual contrasts. its culture was a synthesis of all western cultures. whoever lived there and worked there felt himself free of all confinement and prejudice. ” ix i admire this viennese spirit, which combines audacity and liberty, and which was the cradle of the greatest minds of our contemporary era. today, as europe ’ s time may be here again, i hope that this spirit will continue to inspire us. thank you for your attention. i i would like to thank p. andrade, p. antipa, g. cette, m. dujardin, o. garnier, a. lojschova, b. mojon and b. rudelle for their help in preparing this speech. ii eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, september 2017. iii see e. g. blanchard ( o. ), cerutti ( e. ), and summers ( l. ) ( 2015 ) “ inflation and activity - two explorations and their monetary policy implications, ” national bureau of economic research working paper no. 21726, november. iv guilloux - nefussi ( s. ) ( 2016 ) " globalization, market structure and