policy rate increase, the inflation forecast would be significantly higher. global economic outlook i will now move on to the economic outlook. global economic growth has slowed considerably in recent months. at the same time, inflation in many countries is markedly above targets. in response, numerous central banks have further tightened their monetary policy. in our baseline scenario, we expect this challenging situation to persist for now. global economic growth is thus likely to remain weak in the coming quarters. in particular, the energy situation in europe, the loss of purchasing power due to inflation, and tighter financing conditions are having a dampening effect. inflation will remain elevated for the time being. however, the importance of temporary factors such as supply bottlenecks is likely to diminish over the medium term. the increasingly tighter monetary policy in many countries should also help inflation gradually return to more moderate levels. our scenario for the global economy is subject to significant risks. for example, the energy situation could worsen again. at the same time, high inflation could become embedded and require stronger monetary policy responses abroad. finally, the coronavirus pandemic continues to pose important downside risks to growth. swiss economic outlook in switzerland, gdp growth in the second quarter was lower than expected, at 1. 1 %. this was mainly due to weaker performance in manufacturing. the short - term outlook has deteriorated. by contrast, the situation on the labour market has remained positive. the further development of the economy is likely to be shaped by the economic slowdown abroad and the availability of energy in switzerland. to date, the prices of natural gas and electricity in particular have risen sharply. for this year, we anticipate gdp growth of around 2 %. this is roughly half a percentage point lower than at the last monetary policy assessment. the level of uncertainty associated with the forecast remains high. the biggest risks are a global economic downturn, a page 2 / 4 zurich, 22 september 2022 thomas jordan news conference worsening of the gas shortage in europe and a power shortage in switzerland. furthermore, a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic cannot be ruled out. monetary policy tightening ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy. i would like to explain today ’ s decision. last quarter, our conditional inflation forecast indicated that, without a further tightening of monetary policy, inflation would be above the range consistent with price stability at the end of the forecast horizon. this meant that further interest rate increases might be needed to stabilise

are improving. conditions in the euro area money markets are improving. the volumes in the interbank money market ( eonia ) have virtually doubled since summer, and are now back to the levels prevailing before august 2007. the overall reduction in central bank liquidity has brought the interbank ( eonia ) rate closer to the policy rate, which is an important step towards going back to our pre - crisis framework. euro area activity recovered in the second quarter of 2010 … economic activity in the euro area is recovering. according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, gdp grew by 0. 4 %, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2010, after increasing by 1. 0 % in the second quarter. while no breakdown is available for the third quarter of 2010, all components contributed positively to quarterly gdp growth in the second quarter. in particular, domestic demand contributed quite strongly for the first time since the crisis, namely by 0. 5 percentage point. … and surveys point to ongoing growth into the fourth quarter. looking beyond the third quarter, survey indicators, such as the purchasing managers ’ index ( pmi ) and european commission business surveys for the manufacturing and the services sectors, point to ongoing growth in october. consumer confidence increased in october and stood above its long - term average, pointing to a gradual recovery in euro area consumption. good prospects for households ’ income from the stabilisation in the labour markets … the sentiment in the survey data finds its support in a number of encouraging developments, both in the household and in the non - financial corporations sector. on the household side, labour markets are stabilising, with employment levels remaining stable in the first and the second quarters of 2010, while hours worked increased by 0. 2 %, quarter on quarter, in both these quarters. the effect of the crisis on hours worked was far stronger than that on the number of persons employed. therefore, the upturn has also been stronger in terms of the hours worked. moreover, the unemployment rate has stabilised in the last few months and stood at 10. 0 % in the third quarter of 2010. overall, the stabilisation in the labour markets is creating good prospects for household income and, thereby, also for private consumption. indeed, the breakdown of households ’ income shows that the share of compensation of employees has increased recently, while the contribution of net social benefits has declined. … and upward trend in production and new orders. as to non - financial corporations, we can observe an increasing improvement