claudia buch : the deutsche bundesbank's 2016 financial stability review speech by prof claudia buch, deputy president of the deutsche bundesbank, at the press conference to unveil the deutsche bundesbank's financial stability review, frankfurt am main, 15 november 2016. * * * ladies and gentlemen i would like to welcome you, on my behalf and on behalf of andreas dombret, to the unveiling of the 11th edition of the deutsche bundesbank ’ s financial stability review. the stability of the financial system has been the topic of much discussion over the past year. interest rates, which have remained low for years, are currently in the focus of the debate. these low interest rates reflect weak global economic growth. at the same time, they are encouraging increased risk - taking and an expansion of borrowing. it is impossible to pinpoint exactly when interest rates will go back up again. market players are capable of getting it wrong when it comes to assessing risks and future economic growth. to illustrate the point, let ’ s compare this with election forecasts. most forecasts got the outcome of the us presidential election wrong : only 11 out of 96 forecasts predicted the election outcome correctly. 1 the election forecasts took into account average “ standard ” forecast errors from the past. however, these errors were exceeded by a considerable margin in the actual election. this is not actually anything to worry about if isolated errors ( eg in individual us states ) cancel each other out. however, if all the individual forecasts are systematically biased in the same direction, they won ’ t cancel each other out. and if all observers rely on forecasts, this can lead to false certainties. at this moment, if we look at the financial markets, we see a danger of market participants holding false certainties – and thus, expecting interest rates to stay low, and asset prices to stay high, over the long term, taking excessive risks. on the whole, risks could be systematically underestimated, and the value of collateral for lending operations could be overstated. the surprise that sets in when the opposite occurs is all the greater. in the financial markets, surprise news leads to abrupt price corrections – as was shown by the markets ’ response to the brexit vote. market interest rates can jump up, leading to a significant need for adjustment with the potential for adverse consequences for the real economy. financial stability considerations therefore warrant the build - up of risk buffers so

- central bankers'speeches in turn, fundi tshazibana, vice - chair of the ngfs, the secretariat and i will continue to make sure all members'voices are heard and that our work caters to different needs. because as we heard throughout the day, the needs of african central banks and supervisors can differ from those of their asian or european counterparts. for instance, when we talked about the ngfs climate scenarios earlier, it became clear that applying them in the african context comes with specific challenges that need to be addressed, such as data gaps. this is why these regional outreach events are a great opportunity to facilitate more tailored and focused exchanges among members and observers from the same region. to strengthen cooperation and intensify knowledge sharing between members that have a lot in common. to understand regional needs. to make sure issues that matter to our members are well reflected in our work agenda. i think today's event made good on these promises and was very successful. we aim to ensure that all our members can benefit from the ample expertise within our global and diverse network. building capacity is crucial in this process. it is essential to equip and empower all members with the necessary skills and knowledge to address climate and nature - related risks. the ngfs actively promotes capacity building across its members and beyond. expanding these efforts is a top priority for me. we need to ensure that all our members can fully participate in and benefit from ngfs activities. the ngfs will work to develop targeted training programmes, and promote collaboration among members to effectively address climate and nature - related risks. i encourage all of you to make use of the existing training platforms and resources. i would be happy to hear your ideas on how we can improve our training resources and tailor them to your needs. looking ahead, we really need all hands on deck! because we have a lot planned for this year. the ngfs aims to explore new frontiers. for instance, early in 2025 we plan to release the first vintage of the short - term scenarios, which will complement the existing long - term scenarios. our work on adaptation is also progressing very well – thanks also to our colleagues from the national bank of rwanda who co - lead the ngfs task force on adaptation. we published a first note at cop29 and are planning to release a more comprehensive analysis for cop30. 4 strengthening climate adaptation is essential for building resilient economies and safeguarding the well - being of our communities. implementing measures