specifically, but not only, oil prices. the problem of the us balance of payments has also cast a cloud over the global economy for a considerable time. having said all this, the overall global picture is a relatively optimistic one. the same global growth is one of the factors providing a boost for the growth which israel's economy is currently enjoying, but it is not the only one. israel's growth derives from the government's macroeconomic policy during the last few years, expressed in fiscal discipline - in accordance with the fiscal targets it determined - and in a series of reforms ( in the labor market, the capital market, the ports, etc. ), privatization ( of banks, and companies like bezeq and el - al ), and investment in the infrastructure ( for example in the railway system ). another aspect of the same strategy is the monetary policy pursued by the bank of israel, which focuses mainly on maintaining low inflation in line with the government's target. against this background, and assuming that the government will persist in the macroeconomic policy, the bank of israel recently published its forecasts for 2006, which show an expected growth rate of about 4. 3 percent for gdp, and an even higher rate of 5. 4 percent for business - sector product. investment is expected to rise by 4. 5 percent, and it must be understood that economic growth in the last two years has not led to a resurgence of investments ; if growth is sustained, the day will come when a resurgence of investments will provide it with additional momentum. it is only natural that at the present time, in the run - up to a general election, questions should arise as to whether these forecasts, and those from other sources, are still valid. we are in a period of political uncertainty, which goes together with economic uncertainty, even if we are talking of a relatively short period of a few months, and it is good that the period of uncertainty should be relatively short. it is therefore well worthwhile to dispel all this uncertainty here and now, at least in the economic area. it is vital that the new government, however it is composed, be committed to the same macroeconomic strategy and structural reforms that created the conditions for healthy and sustained growth. domestic and foreign investors must be sure that this strategy is not at issue, and that everyone is committed to it. and it is important that they should feel that right away. on our part, the bank of israel will continue

later than we projected in july. • the main upside risks to inflation relate to the possibility of a stronger - thananticipated recovery in the global economy and more robust canadian domestic demand. • on the downside, the global recovery could be even more protracted than projected. in addition, a stronger - than - assumed canadian dollar, driven by global portfolio movements out of u. s. - dollar assets, could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. • on tuesday, 20 october, the bank reaffirmed its conditional commitment to maintain its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 1 / 4 per cent until the end of june 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. • the bank retains considerable flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, consistent with the framework that we outlined in the april mpr. • our focus in the conduct of monetary policy is on achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. the exchange rate should be seen in this context. it is an important relative price, which the bank monitors closely. • what ultimately matters is the exchange rate's impact in conjunction with all other domestic and foreign factors on aggregate demand and inflation in canada. to put it simply, the bank looks at everything through the prism of achieving our inflation target. with that, mr. chairman and committee members, paul and i would now be pleased to answer your questions.