hand, as i mentioned, it considers that the activity gap will close throughout the projection horizon, a period in which the economy will accumulate growth above its potential. this is consistent with gdp growing in 2019 between 2. 75 % and 3. 5 %. this range is below the range we expected in march, mainly reflecting the effects of the negative surprise of activity in the first quarter. actually, this projection assumes that the economy will resume higher rates of annual expansion in the second half of this year. for 2020 and 2021, higher growth rates are foreseen, between 3 % and 4 % in both years ( table 3 ). page 4 of 18 on the expenditure side, compared with march, the biggest adjustments are seen in gross fixed capital formation ( gfcf ), a component that, instead of growing 6. 2 % this year as projected, will grow only 4. 5 %. this revision owes to a great extent to the poor first - quarter performance of the machinery and equipment component. this weakness has continued, according to partial second - quarter data. it must be noted that this occurs in the context of high inventory buildup towards the end of 2018 and the increased uncertainty surrounding the external scenario. in any case, the other part of investment — construction and other works — has remained dynamic and forward going forward signs are still positive. on one hand, related stock market data point to a favorable development. on the other, the large - scale investment projects that are currently in progress — especially in mining — do not register delays and have been unfolding according to plan. along the same lines, the various surveys of investment projects have not seen any downward and continue to foresee larger amounts for 2019 - 2020, compared with the amounts invested in the period 2017 - 2018 ( figure 8 ). turning to concessions, the authorities have announced a significant increase in them as from 2020, in particular in hospitals, roads and airports. add to this the announced approval of a set of complementary works that will be executed in 2019 and 2020. the information of the association of engineering consulting firms ( aic ) for the first quarter of 2019 shows that detail engineering — which covers projects scheduled for one or two years ahead — shows high annual growth rates. in terms of housing investment, although it began the year with a zero contribution to construction gdp, sales remain high and the outlook reflected in the may business perceptions report is positive. in any case, the monthly entrepreneurs confidence index ( imce ) for the construction

michael gondwe : supervision of non - banks and microfinance institutions remarks by dr michael gondwe, governor of the bank of zambia, at the opening ceremony of the macroeconomic and financial management institute of eastern and southern africa ( mefmi ) regional workshop on “ supervision of non - banks and microfinance institutions ”, lusaka, 8 april 2013. * * * the mefmi programme officer, distinguished resource persons, mefmi staff, participants, ladies and gentlemen, it gives me great pleasure to officiate at this workshop on supervision of non - bank financial institutions and microfinance organised by the financial sector management programme of mefmi. may i take this opportunity, on behalf of mefmi and on my own behalf, to welcome you all to this important workshop and, in particular, to welcome you to lusaka. i urge you to make some time to visit and sample some of the beautiful spots that our city and country has to offer. i also wish to welcome and thank our distinguished resource persons mr. japheth katto from capital markets authority of uganda, mr. nkosilathi moyo from world vision here in zambia, mrs. rachel mushosho from the reserve bank of zimbabwe and mr. kagisanyo kelobang from the african development bank ( afdb ) in tunis for accepting invitations to present at this workshop and hope that their participation will enrich the deliberations of this workshop as well as increase the knowledge of the participants. ladies and gentlemen, non - bank financial institutions are a significant component of the financial sector as their assets constitute a significant proportion of the total financial sector assets in most countries in the region. similarly, microfinance institutions play a critical role in poverty alleviation and economic empowerment of marginalized communities in our region. as such these institutions are systemically important as they can exacerbate the fragility of the financial system particularly where there is lack of effective regulation. over the past few years, we have seen a trend where these institutions have increased in numbers in our region ; some have been established as part of financial conglomerates while others are on a standalone basis. sadly, our supervisory and regulatory structures for this sector in the mefmi region have remained rather incoherent and somewhat underdeveloped to handle the challenges that have been identified with this sector. the trend makes it more important than ever for supervisors in the region to get together and talk about