, assessing macroprudential measures in a consistent manner requires accounting for spillovers, including to the real economy, also taking account of their impact on various sectors as well as layers of interaction between those sectors. conclusion let me conclude. the ecb has been working hard on developing analytical tools for the effective implementation of macroprudential policy. the ecb ’ s new legal competences in macroprudential policy relate primarily to the power to top - up measures adopted by national authorities and the assessment of possible spillovers to other countries in connection with the reciprocity principle laid down in the legislation. in this vein, the ecb has been analysing the numerous macroprudential measures adopted by member states that, so far, we have decided not to aggravate. concerning the governance framework, we have created an internal macroprudential coordination group and established the macroprudential forum – integrating the governing council and the supervisory board – to discuss all matters related to financial stability and macroprudential policy. we are taking our new responsibilities very seriously. the robustness of our assessments is key and, for this reason, analytical and research work in the macroprudential policy area has been stimulated and has been fruitful, as evident in my gross, m. and j. poblacion, ( 2015 ), “ assessing the efficacy of borrower - based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro - macro model for european households ”, ecb working paper no. 1881. see also ampudia, m., h. van vlokhoven and d. zochowski, ( 2016 ), “ financial fragility of euro area households ”, journal of financial stability, forthcoming ; see also : ecb working paper series no. 1737. for details, see the household finance and consumption network webpage, https : / / www. ecb. europa. eu / pub / economic - research / research - networks / html / researcher _ hfcn. en. html. bis central bankers ’ speeches remarks. since march this year, the ecb started publishing a macroprudential bulletin 18 that will inform about the analytical work being done, the policy decisions adopted and assessed, as well as analysis of relevant regulatory developments. this will further contribute to enhance transparency in our assessments. we look forward to maintaining a lively dialogue with the community of people in official institutions, in the financial sector and in academia who are interested in the

the eventual terms of the uk ’ s departure from the european union. on the home front, interest rates on government securities remain a significant risk factor. the protectionist stance of us trade policy vis - a - vis china, with which a complex negotiation is under way, and the european union, already hit by last year ’ s introduction of aluminium and steel tariffs, could be accentuated. further uncertainty stems from the slowdown under way in the chinese economy, partly linked to initiatives designed to limit private sector borrowing, and from the difficult political and economic conditions of important emerging economies. a no - deal brexit could have serious consequences even if the direct impact on international trade, while strong for the united kingdom, may prove limited for italy and for the eu as a whole. any financial market malfunctions could have major repercussions for all the countries involved and this issue is currently being looked at very closely. together with the supervisory authorities the italian government has prepared a number of contingency measures. these provide for an adequate transition period to guarantee the integrity and business continuity of the markets and of intermediaries – both british intermediaries operating in italy and italian intermediaries established in the uk – and to safeguard investors and customers. important decisions have already been taken by the european commission, which is currently working to ensure the continuity of financial transactions between european intermediaries and british central counterparties. the single resolution board ( srb ) has also announced that it will be flexible with european banks in the event that securities issued in the uk no longer count towards the minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities ( mrel ). as national and european authorities have recalled on many occasions, banks must nevertheless play an active role in the preparations for a no - deal scenario. since the mid - november peak, yield spreads between ten - year government bonds and the corresponding german securities have narrowed by around 80 basis points. at 250 basis points on average this week, the risk premium on italian government bonds nonetheless remains high, around double what it was on average in the first four months of last year. the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has not disappeared. an agreement with the commission was reached for 2019, but for 2020 - 21 numerous questions remain open, especially the future of the ‘ safeguard clauses ’, whose cost has now gone up to 1. 2 per cent of gdp in 2020 and 1. 5 per cent in 2021. were they to be deactivated without any countermeas