##2 set an average wage increase for 2023 almost 1 pp higher than those agreed during the third quarter, while an indicator of wage growth in new online job openings 11 declined for two consecutive months to 4. 9 % in december ( from 5. 2 % in november and 5. 3 % in october ). however, looking ahead workers ’ pressures to regain lost purchasing power might be significant, especially since upcoming wage negotiations will take place in a context of a tight labour market. the unemployment rate remained at 6. 6 % in december, its lowest level since the euro was launched, and firms ’ perceived degree of labour shortage has also stabilised at very high levels in historical terms. thus, we should monitor wage and mark - up development to identify the potential emergence of second - round effects on inflation. this depreciatio n increased the co st o f euro area pro ducers, given that mo st impo rted inputs are deno minated in do llars, resulting in so me expo rt market share being lo st ( estimated at aro und 2. 5 % in 2022 ). leiva - leo n, d., j. martinez - martin and e. ortega ( 2022 ). “ exchange rate sho cks and inflation co - movement in the euro area ”, international journal of central banking, 18 ( 1 ), pp. 239 - 275 data fro m indeed, an emplo yment website that aggregates jo b listings fro m tho usands o f websites, including job bo ards, staffing firms, asso ciations, and co mpany career pages. the global context and the reopening of china weaker global demand, particularly in key advanced economies, is contributing to the moderation of commodity prices on international markets and easing inflationary pressures. economic growth in the united states continues to slow due to tighter financing conditions. however, it remains stronger than expected, mainly supported by private consumption, with households continuing to spend their stock of savings, strong and widespread jobs growth and unemployment at very low levels. in addition, the inflation path may be conditioned by the end of the zero - covid policy in china and the subsequent reopening of the chinese economy. once the surge in infections has passed, the chinese economy will foreseeably regain dynamism supported by consumption, amid a recovery in mobility and the more contact - intensive activities, along with the release of pent - up demand. although

credit impulse – is already evident. we should expect to see the latter link to real activity assert itself soon. third, as regards the cash flow channel of monetary policy, we have seen a significant shift of funds between overnight deposits ( with very low remuneration ) and time deposits ( whose remuneration is more sensitive to market interest rates ). furthermore, in net terms, money supply is decelerating rapidly, with m3 growth slowing from around 9 % in september to 4 % in january. fourth, the housing sector is a key area to watch given the turnaround in financial conditions, as well as the sharp increase in house prices in some economies over the last decade. there was significant evidence of exuberance in this market in some countries before the pandemic, as has been repeatedly emphasised by the european systemic risk board. 16 all in all, it is therefore crucial that we monitor how all these elements may affect monetary policy transmission in the next quarters. conclusion in sum, recent data on euro area inflation and some of its key determinants are somewhat encouraging, but the overall situation still requires caution. the evidence so far is very preliminary and there are several areas that require careful monitoring : the residual pass 15 huennekes, f., and p. ko hler - ulbrich ( 2023 ). “ what information does the euro area bank lending survey pro vide on future lo an develo pments? ”, ecb eco no mic bulletin, issue 8 / 2022, box 7. esrb repo rt " vulnerabilities in the residential real estate secto rs o f th e eea co untries ”. through of past inflationary shocks and the symmetry of the pass - through of recent energy price declines to core inflation ; labour market and wage developments ; the possible effects of the chinese reopening ; the resilience of the euro area economy and the transmission of ecb monetary policy decisions. all these will have to be assessed as part of the full projections exercise under way in the run - up to our march meeting.