a policy mistake, creating substantially more inflation than can be explained by the supply shock itself. this point cannot be emphasised enough. the goal of ensuring that inflation does not go well beyond the inevitable price rise called for by the supply shock, through second - round effects, largely explains why the mpc has to respond despite low demand pressures. to take a simple example, imagine an economy where there is a small supply shock, such as a modest increase in world oil prices. the central bank observes inflation somewhat above target in the near term. however, other items in the inflation basket remain stable, so the price increase is confined to fuel and immediately related items such as transport. firms, households and workers do not change their views of inflation, except for the near term. wage settlement rates do not pick up and firms do not seem to be raising mark - ups. financial markets do not start to price more inflation compensation into instruments such as government bonds. in these circumstances, it is an easy choice for the central bank to rely on its credibility and make no policy changes. inflation will very likely return to target after a year without further action. of course, not all policy decisions are so easy. they become harder when the shocks are large and persistent, or when there are multiple overlapping shocks. it is also not always straightforward to determine, given data lags, if inflationary pressures are broadening. there are no definitive sources you can trust for early warning. at the same time, it can be dangerous to wait too long for perfect information because delays can make the problem page 3 of 8 worse. furthermore, it is never clear how much credibility one has until you have lost it. these situations pose some of the most challenging balancing acts for monetary policy. what are the data telling us? let me now put aside the textbook and talk about our real - world decisions. as we went into the july mpc, we were confronted with tighter global financial conditions or higher global funding costs for countries like south africa. in addition, we faced lower global economic growth projections due to factors that included slower growth in china, the continuing war in ukraine, necessary monetary policy tightening synchronised across the world, and the tapering of commodity prices. while growth globally has been revised downwards, inflation has been revised upwards in most countries and has turned out to be more persistent. inflation is expected to be above targets in most advanced and emerging market economies, both this year and next year. south africa has not escaped

proactive way with every household – as a collective as well as with individual members – in their jurisdiction. their role is to promote health, prevent disease and detect disease early, and support treatment, rehabilitation and palliation ; and to do this in a way that both develops capacity and shared responsibility for health care between service providers and service users. since 2010, community oriented primary care has been implemented in tshwane in nine ward - based sites built on a partnership between the university of pretoria ( family medicine ), the department of health and fpd ( foundation for professional development ) in collaboration with private sector companies especially it, health care providers and npos. the initiative involves inter - disciplinary and inter - professional practice. schools and local ngos are used as the premises for health posts and professional nurses head these phc outreach teams and provide clinical and mentoring support. these health posts work very closely with health facilities within the geographic area and former home - based care givers are being trained to provide door - to - door services with each community health care worker being assigned 200 households. households are registered using mobile phone technology, giving the care workers a more accurate way to capture data and focus interventions. the geomed system currently registers households and has 8 modules to assess the health status of each family member. to date 14 745 households have been visited and registered and about 40, 000 individuals have completed a health status assessment. health posts have begun interventions, especially around tb and immediate health care needs. fourth - year medical and other university of pretoria students are attached to health posts, thereby learning on site and providing much - needed services, while community health workers are being trained on site and in a continuous way. bis central bankers ’ speeches in this way the five principles that guide copc, namely local situational analysis, comprehensive care, equity, practice with science, and service integration around users, are being given effect, building communities and partnerships, and making a real difference to people ’ s lives. this is an example of how, working together, we can make a real difference to the lives of our people and communities. to get things done we need to work together, and this requires trust and confidence which is essential for building a healthy and equitable society. this evening you have all taken time out of your busy schedules to come here and contribute to noah, an important initiative and example of the generosity of spirit and willingness to give both financially and personal time : one of the hallmarks of many south africans