apt. a member who consistently strives for an unduly low interest rate will find, if he or she gets their way, that sooner or later the inflation target is exceeded. the opposite holds, of course, for those who always prefer a higher interest rate. i expect we shall have to learn to live with this type of monetary policy personification. but i hope that in time the discussion that follows our decisions and published minutes will still lead to a wider understanding, among people in general as well as in markets, of the deliberations and choices the executive board has to make. for market players i continue to believe that fundamentally it is most important to arrive at their own sound assessments of inflation. those who do so are likely to be fairly close to the mark in their predictions of the repo rate, at least in the somewhat longer perspective. 3. the current monetary policy situation let me now consider the present situation, starting from the inflation report the riksbank presented last week. the assessment in the inflation report the signs of a global recovery have been confirmed and also become stronger since the june report. the riksbank has accordingly made an upward revision to the forecast for gdp growth in the oecd area, to an annual rate of not quite 2. 5 % up to the end of 2001. the growth is occurring on a wide front. the asian and european economies are recovering, from different initial situations, and the slowdown in the united states is expected to be milder than we counted on earlier. even with the prospect of higher global economic growth, international price pressure is assumed to remain relatively low. one reason for this is that after the asian crisis and its repercussions, there is still unutilised capacity in the world economy. another important factor is increased price competition. in addition, the pass - through from external price increases to prices in sweden will be dampened by an appreciating krona. in our main scenario, moreover, the barrel price of crude oil is assumed to fall back from the present level around us $ 23 to just over us $ 17. the stronger international growth has also contributed to an upward revision of the riksbank ’ s forecast for the domestic economy. growth is now expected to be 3. 6 % this year, followed by 3. 8 % and 3. 0 % in 2000 and 2001. the upward revision also mirrors higher domestic demand growth. firms as well as households are optimistic about the future.

winston dookeran : the state of the economy in trinidad and tobago and the outlook for 2001 address by mr winston dookeran, governor of the central bank of trinidad and tobago, to the trinidad and tobago chamber of industry and commerce, 16 may 2001. * * * good morning ladies and gentlemen once again it is a pleasure to be here to address you today. in keeping with past discussions i want to share with you my thoughts on the state of the economy today. some analysts in the media have commented on a number of current economic issues e. g. the possibility of a slowdown, interest rates, private sector credit, consumer confidence. today, however, i want to focus on five main themes and perhaps i may be able to clarify some of these topical issues. my themes are as follows : 1. what are the major characteristics of our current economic expansion and how does this expansion differ from previous ones? 2. what is the nature of private sector credit in the economy at this time? 3. what is the current monetary policy framework? 4. what impact if any will the current slowdown in the us have on the local economy? 5. what are the major downside risks and challenges as we continue into 2001? introduction trinidad and tobago is entering the eighth year of a long period of economic expansion, the second time in the post independence period that we have had such an experience. this expansion is significantly different from that of the mid and late seventies although there are several similarities. in particular this current phase of continuous growth has not been directly driven by an improvement in the country ’ s terms of trade as occurred in the 1970 ’ s with the first oil shock. indeed in the present period higher commodity prices have supported the buoyancy in the economy while the sustained level of growth we are now experiencing is a direct consequence of the policies introduced during the adjustment phase of the 1980 ’ s. you may recall that trinidad & tobago introduced a number of structural reforms in the aftermath of adjustment – trade, tax, privatization, tariff and financial reforms – that provided a platform for the current investment upswing in the oil and gas sector in particular. many analysts have suggested that the market – friendly reform policies which were undertaken and the investments made thereafter contributed significantly to the current economic performance. today the economy is reaping the rewards of these first generation reforms and as the economic conditions continue to improve, the time will be appropriate to introduce second - generation reforms such as labour market reforms, pension reform