4. 6 percent. let me explain : growth of exports in our main sectors, whether textiles, seafood and tourism, is buoyant. the order books are full for the textile sector. since our competitors have higher levels of inflation, for example in china, we believe that prospects are improving for our exporters. our export revenues reached a record level of 15. 2 billion rupees in the first quarter of 2011 ( quarter on quarter ) compared to the last five years. tourist arrivals for the first quarter are also a record. we believe that the current estimate of tourist arrivals for the year, which is around 980, 000, may in fact surpass the onemillion mark. there are unprecedented levels of growth to date, 25 percent in one case and 40 percent in others. of course, these growth rates are for smaller markets, not for major ones, but they show that the diversification efforts and promotional campaigns, conducted by the mtpa and others, are beginning to bear fruit. there are constraints such as air access, and if these constraints are reviewed and corrected, there is no reason why we may not exceed the figure of one million tourist arrivals. so, the tourism sector is doing very well. but we need to focus on target markets ; there are traditional markets, two or three markets that are in bad shape. the english market and the italian market are on the decline, so is the belgian market. europe is losing ground in some areas. let me come back for a moment on what is happening locally before proceeding to the international front. i was saying that fdi flows had fallen very drastically. if we take the figures for the first quarter of 2011, they represent about 25 percent of the fdi flows we had received during the first quarter of 2010. as you are all aware, we depend mainly on these flows for our balance of payments equilibrium. our balance of payments, in terms of visible trade, is in deficit. we make up for this deficit by the revenues from services and fdi flows and by draw downs from foreign currency loans by government. if the trends we observed in the fdi flows do not reverse, we may have problems further down the line. these problems may affect our economic fundamentals drastically and could even affect the value of the rupee. we believe this is a concern not only for the central bank, but also for the country, and a signal to authorities concerned to redouble their efforts to continue to attract more fdi flows

##mic level of gdp in the fourth quarter of last year, while the slovenian economy caught up with it a quarter earlier. the rapid and comprehensive response of monetary and fiscal policies to the shock, together with the progress in vaccination, have been instrumental in the speedy recovery. our joint efforts for strengthening the resilience of the european banking system over the last decade also played an important role. the strong economic rebound after the reopening of the economies and covid - related supply chain disruptions lead to global supply shortages and, in turn, the pick - up of inflation. its increase was not unexpected, given the collapse of energy prices in 2020, but turned out to be stronger, broader and more persistent than we anticipated. the terrible war on the eu's doorstep and sanctions against russia have exacerbated global supply constraints, pushed up energy and commodity prices and caused the euro area and global inflation to surge further. this accelerated the process of the global winding down of the historic monetary stimulus and – together with lower growth prospects – added to this years ’ marked decline in the stock and bond markets. the worry thus arose as to whether these developments could tip our economies into a recession. despite higher living costs and a devastating war, economic growth in the euro area and in slovenia continues, albeit at a slower pace than would otherwise be the case. we cannot completely rule out a fall in gdp in the coming quarters, but so far there are more arguments in favour of continued growth, which is also the baseline scenario of june projections by the eurosystem and banka slovenije. however, the uncertainty is great and there are considerable risks to the forecast due to the war and geopolitical tensions. in sum, we are currently in an unusual and challenging situation. according to many economic indicators – such as high employment, labour shortages, capacity utilisation in manufacturing, elevated inflation and over - valuation of housing markets – we are high in the business cycle. at the same time, our monetary policy is still exceptionally accommodative after coping with the lengthy period of deflationary pressures and the pandemic shock. the situation is particularly challenging as certain financial vulnerabilities have built up over the last few years, in particular the high indebtedness of some countries and companies, overvalued housing markets across europe and accumulated risks in non - bank financial institutions. [ monetary policy ] given the euro area inflation stands above 8 % with little signs