rate and real interest rates. that could become the prelude to costlier adjustments in the future. our monetary policy has already given proof of its high capacity to adapt to drastic changes in macroeconomic conditions and this latest shock will not be the exception. thank you very much. figure 1 output gaps gdp ( percent ) ( annualized quarterly change, percent ) - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 12 - 12 - 8 ii iii iv ii iii iv dec. ’ 09 report ii iii iv ii iii iv mar. ’ 10 report ( 1 ) fourth quarter of 2009 indicators correspond to forecasts in the baseline scenario. ( 2 ) closing of national accounts as published in march. source : central bank of chile. figure 2 retail sales and new car sales ( indices, 2003 = 100, seasonally - adjusted series ) 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 non - durable goods ( 1 ) new cars durable goods perception indices ipec current situation ipec situation in 12 months imce current situation imce situation in 6 months ( 1 ) sold during moving quarter. ( 2 ) figure above ( below ) 50 points indicates optimism ( pessimism ). sources : adimark, car association asociacion nacional automotriz de chile, central bank of chile, chamber of commerce camara nacional de comercio and icare / universidad adolfo ibanez. figure 3 lending interest rates ( * ) loans to firms and households ( moving four - week average, percent ) commercial 30 - 89 days ( * ) weighted average rates. consumer over 3 years ( annualized change in the moving quarter of the nominal seasonally - adjusted series, percent ) - 10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 consumer housing commercial sources : central bank of chile and superintendence of banks & financial institutions. figure 4 nominal exchange rate ( indices, jan / 2 / 2006 = 100 ) real exchange rate ( indices, 1986 = 100 ) mer mer - 5 oer 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 1995 - 2009 average 1990 - 2009 average rer source : central bank of chile. figure 5 inflation indicators ( annual change, percent ) - 3 cpi cpix cpix1 - 3 cpi w / o foodstuffs and energy sources : central bank of chile and national statistics bureau ( ine ). figure 6 world growth ( annualized quarterly change, percent ) commodities prices ( indices jan / 2 / 2006 = 100

measuring the economy ’ s productive capacity and, therefore, trend gdp, the output gap and inflationary pressures. according to the survey of damages from the earthquake and tsunami delivered by the government on march 23, the cost to replace the destroyed capital stock amounts to 20. 94 billion us dollars. following the reasoning described above, this figure is the equivalent to the gross value of the lost capital stock. how then can we estimate the net value of the capital destroyed? estimates in our national accounts indicate that between the years 2000 and 2008 the net value of the capital stock was around 63 percent of the gross stock. applying this percentage directly, we estimate that the damage to the net capital stock, consistent with the figure disclosed by the government, is 13. 2 billion us dollars. if we consider that the net capital stock amounted in 2009 to an estimated 435 billion us dollars, the aforementioned loss is equivalent to nearly 3 percent of the total. therefore, given a loss of 3 percent in the net capital stock, the board estimates that during this year the level of trend gdp will fall 1. 0 % to 1. 5 % because of the catastrophe. the magnitude of the short - term impact of the natural disaster depends on the share in national gdp of the hardest hit regions, the sectoral composition of production by region and the duration of downtime in productive processes, among other factors. in 2008, regions vi, vii and viii produced nearly 16 % of national gdp, mostly concentrated in the manufacturing sector. as for the labour market, the three regions generate almost one fifth of national employment. the board estimates that the disaster had a negative effect of about 3 percentage points on first - quarter gdp growth. in the second quarter, assuming a gradual normalization of productive processes, the effect is reduced to around 2 percentage points. these assumptions are based on a scenario in which the reduction in output is concentrated in regions vi, vii and viii, and primarily affects the manufacturing sector. it is important to consider that the difficulties caused by the catastrophe in the making of spending decisions may hold down demand, and it is likely that some short - term effects will be seen in consumption and inventories. with respect to inflation, problems in production or distribution will probably increase the price level immediately, an effect that should be temporary for the most part. the usual economic statistics for march could give a better approximation of the immediate effects of the earthquake and tsunami. overall, the complexity of an accurate reading of the data must be taken into account