2025 * sources : sors and nbs. * nbs estimate. as the global economy continues to rebound, and by extension external demand, and due to the anticipated pick - up in the implementation of investment projects in road, energy and utility infrastructure, as of 2024 we expect serbia ’ s gdp growth to accelerate to 3. 0 – 4. 0 %, and then return to the pre - pandemic growth trajectory of around 4 % annually. as i already underlined, our external position continued to improve in q2 this year. relative to h1 2022, the goods exchange deficit decreased by eur 2. 1 bn, thanks to the lower energy balance deficit amid the falling global prices of energy, lower import in terms of quantity and increased export of electricity, as well as growth in manufacturing exports at high rates. it is important to underline that despite dampened external demand, manufacturing exports remained high as a result of prior investments in tradable sectors. together with the rising surplus in services trade and in the secondary income account, this has helped the current account deficit to equal only eur 527 mn or 1. 6 % of gdp in the first six months of the year. with this in mind, we now project the annualised current account deficit at a much lower level, around 2. 5 % of gdp, compared to the 4. 5 % we projected in may. the anticipated pick - up in the investment cycle and the associated import of equipment and 6 of 10 intermediate goods, as well as an increase in export capacities and a rebound in external demand – which will mostly offset increased import – will keep the current account deficit at 4 % of gdp over the medium term. this is a level that ensures external sustainability. in the first seven months, inflow under fdi measured more than eur 2. 4 bn, exceeding the current account deficit several times and thus helping to boost appreciation pressures. in response to these pressures, the nbs net purchased foreign currency in the amount of eur 2, 455 mn in the first seven months. according to our estimate, net fdi inflow of around 5 % of gdp in the medium term will continue to fully cover the current account deficit, as in the previous eight years, thus supporting the sustainability of our external position. moreover, we expect fdi to remain highly diversified in terms of geographies and projects, and mostly channelled to tradable sectors. i would like to emphasize once

) budget balance ( rhs ) - 150 - 2 - 4 - 300 - 450 - 600 - 750 nbs transactions in the fx market, monthly ( rhs ) * eur / rsd, monthly average ( lhs ) * * - 900 - 1, 050 - 6 - 1, 200 source : nbs. * + net purchase ; - net sale. * * eur 1 in rsd. - 8 source : 2014 ministry of finance. - 10 2024 * 2026 * source : ministry of finance. * projection according to the fiscal strategy for 2024 w ith forecasts for 2025 and 2026. ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, over the past several years, our economy was exposed to shocks from the international environment unprecedented in the recent history. if we had not reacted duly with appropriate measures, in coordination with the serbian government, these shocks would have left immeasurable negative consequences on our country ’ s economy. the lesson we have learned in these 11 years with me at the head of the nbs is that the measures undertaken and the results achieved are indeed important, but perhaps even more so are the conditions in the country at the moment a crisis breaks out. therefore, it was critical that with appropriate reaction we not only preserved macroeconomic and financial stability, economic growth and the living standard of our citizens, but we also built up reserves to fortify serbia ’ s resilience to external challenges. i will name only two indicators – the country ’ s “ savings ” and the savings of our citizens. the country ’ s “ savings ” or fx reserves, which are a national resource of vital economic importance in hedging against external shocks, were doubled during these 8 of 10 11 years with me leading the nbs. in other words, the stock of reserves we had when i came to the bank is equal to the amount we additionally accumulated in these 11 years, therefore at end - july they measured eur 23. 1 bn. this is their highest level on record, and it exceeds all measures normally used to assess their adequacy ( import coverage, money supply and short - term foreign debt, the imf ’ s ara, etc. ) i need not emphasize how important this fact is in terms of hedging against risks from the international environment and securing overall macroeconomic stability going forward. chart 14 dinar savings chart 13 value and structure of nbs fx reserves ( in eur mn ) securities foreign cash and deposits abroad