for example unlike gfc when it took seven years for the euro area gdp and almost twelve years for unemployment to return to its pre - crisis level, this time it took only one year to return to pre - crisis level and unemployment to hit record low. these developments are also relevant for some of the cesee transition economies with strong trade and financial ties with the advanced europe. this was a showcase of how a sizable and wellcoordinated monetary and fiscal mix can mitigate the adverse effects of a large exogenous shock. unfortunately, while calibrating our exit strategies and reverting to a normal mode, another shock wave came pushing energy and food prices further up the curve, hence accelerating inflation while overshadowing growth recovery. thus, after a decade of persistently low inflation and difficulties of central banks in reaching inflation targets, last year this trend reversed and we have been witnessing a return of inflation across almost all economies. about half of the emerging economies have inflation higher than 7 %, which is the highest share in the last two decades. in north macedonia, as a highly open and import dependent economy, inflation has reached 8. 8 %. although supply shocks tend to be temporary and usually limited to price changes of a limited number of consumption items, the recent data points that price shock may be more persistent and more broadly based than initially anticipated. for example, in emerging economies, more than half of the items of the consumption basket have high inflation, including services that tend to have more persistent effect. more persistent and broad - based price changes may lead to " backward - looking " inflationary expectations, as was the case before 1990, affecting the wage - setting process. in fact, the latest consumer survey of the ec indicates that inflation expectations in most of the cesee economies have already picked up. so, how temporary and how strong the effects can be? according to the latest imf forecast, the current crisis may result in higher global inflation by 3. 6 p. p. with stronger effect in emerging economies, where it is estimated to average close to 9 %. in a regional context, expectations go up to 8. 0 %. on the other hand, the growth prospects are gloomier, with global growth forecast trimmed by 1. 3 p. p., with similar downgrade for the cesee region ( 1. 7 p. p ), where growth is revised down to 3. 0 % on average. the economic loss will not be contained during this year,

dimitar bogov : world savings day - the importance of savings in macedonia speech by mr dimitar bogov, governor of the national bank of the republic of macedonia, in front of the banking association of the economic chamber of macedonia, marking 31 october the world savings day, skopje, 31 october 2017. * * * ladies and gentlemen, dear bankers and guests, it is a great pleasure to address you on the occasion of marking the world savings day. this is the day when we emphasize the important role of savings, not only in terms of its role as a source of funding for the banks, but also its immediate importance for the economy as a whole and for maintaining financial stability. all of us, you as bankers and we in the national bank, as regulators, have many times been convinced in the truth of the saying that maintaining bank stability reflects the depositors ’ confidence. this year, the banks enjoyed the trust of the population, regardless of the unfavorable influence of the domestic political developments on the ordinary citizen and the depositor. this is also confirmed by the latest available data on the movement of household deposits. as of september, household deposits show a very solid growth rate of 5. 8 %, which is an important indicator for stabilizing depositors ’ expectations and perceptions amid unstable environment and restraint of economic agents from investment in the first half of this year. the positive movements in household savings contributed to the growth of the lending activity, so according to the latest available data as of september 2017, loans increased by 4. 3 % on an annual basis, with a solvency that is almost twice as high as the statutory levels and volume of liquidity that enables optimal day - to - day operation. it is also worth noting that in spite of the political environment, the deposit growth and the trust in banks have been achieved in the environment of historically lowest interest rates, both on the financial markets in the euro area and on the domestic interbank market. also, allow me to mention that in the forthcoming medium - term period, the deposit market will urge banks to make even greater efforts to modernize and increase their offer. we live in times of global digitalization, great advancements in information technology and its daily use in the financial sector. innovation and application of modern technologies globally put competitive pressure on the traditional forms of banking, and encourage banks to constantly adapt, be proactive and inventive, and by changing their business models to new phenomena and conditions, ensure