proof of concept connects firms to a specifically built, offline version of rtgs so that the live rtgs system is protected. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches references bank of england ( 2018 ), financial policy committee statement from tis meeting, 12 march 2018, available at : https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / statement / fpc / 2018 / financial - policy - committee - statement - march - 2018 bank of england ( 2017a ), stress testing the uk banking system : 2017 results, 28 november 2017, available at : https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / stress - testing / 2017 / stress - testing - the - uk - banking - system2017 - results bank of england ( 2017b ), a blueprint for a new rtgs service for the united kingdom, 9 may 2017, available at : https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / paper / 2017 / a - blueprint - for - a - new - rtgs - service - for - the - uk carney, m ( 2018 ), the future of money, 02 march 2018, available at : https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / speech / 2018 / mark - carney - speech - to - the - inaugural - scottish - economicsconference central banking ( 2018 ), initiative of the year, 23 jan 2018, available at : https : / / www. centralbanking. com / awards / 3333176 / initiative - of - the - year - bank - of - englands - fintech - accelerator cunliffe, j ( 2018 ), looking after our money, 26 february 2018, available at https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / - / media / boe / files / news / 2018 / february / looking - after - our - money - speech - byjon - cunliffe. pdf george, e ( 1996 ), risk reduction in payment and settlement systems ’ a bank of england quarterly bulletin article, 9 december 1996, available at : https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / - / media / boe / files / quarterlybulletin / 1996 / risk - reduction - in - the - payment - and - settlement - systems. pdf hauser, a ( 2017 ) the bank

balance, in recent months. inflation remains below the federal reserve ’ s 2 percent symmetric objective, which has been true for most of the past seven years. the price index for core personal consumption expenditures ( pce ), which excludes food and energy prices and is a better indicator of future inflation than overall pce prices, increased 1. 7 percent over the 12 months through september. foreign growth remains subdued. while there are signs that the decline in euroarea manufacturing is stabilizing, the latest indicators on economic activity in china remain sluggish, and the news in japan and in many emerging markets has been disappointing. overall, it appears third - quarter foreign growth was weak, and the latest indicators point to little improvement in the fourth quarter. more broadly, the balance of risks remains to the downside, although there has been some improvement in risk sentiment in recent weeks. the risk of a disorderly brexit in the near future has declined significantly, and there is some hope that a u. s. – claudia sahm shows that a 1 / 2 percentage point increase in the three - month moving average of the unemployment rate relative to the previous year ’ s low is a good real - time recession indicator. see claudia sahm ( 2019 ), “ direct stimulus payments to individuals, ” policy proposal, the hamilton project at the brookings institution ( washington : thp, may 16 ), https : / / www. hamiltonproject. org / assets / files / sahm _ web _ 20190506. pdf. - 3china trade truce could avert additional tariffs. while risks remain, financial market indicators suggest market participants see a diminution in such risks, and probabilities of recessions from models using market data have declined. the baseline is for continued moderate expansion, a strong labor market, and inflation moving gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective. the federal open market committee ( fomc ) has taken significant action to provide insurance against the risks associated with trade conflict and weak foreign growth against a backdrop of muted inflation. since july, the committee has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 3 / 4 percentage point, to the current range of 1 - 1 / 2 to 1 - 3 / 4 percent. it will take some time for the full effect of this accommodation to work its way through economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. i will be watching the data carefully for signs of a material change to the outlook that