did earlier in the post - world war ii period. exports, of course, were a much smaller share of world gdp in those years. and many, perhaps most, producers, as exchange rates moved in their favor, accordingly chose to pick off only the low - hanging trade fruit, so to speak. such opportunistic exports obviated large up - front financial commitments to foreign markets. as trade barriers have been lowered over the decades, much has changed, evidenced by the emergence of critical mass in many export markets, the growing importance of multinational firms, and the rise of production processes that are integrated across borders. * * * the interaction of a wide range of economic forces, which adjust at national borders to create what we call the current account balance, has proved difficult to predict with any precision, primarily because of the difficulty of forecasting exchange rates. these same forces have lessened our ability to anticipate the consequences of a buildup of either a surplus or a deficit. in addition, numerous issues that have arisen with respect to the adjustment of the u. s. current account remain unresolved. one is the effect of asian official purchases of dollars in support of their currencies. such intervention may be supporting the dollar and u. s. treasury bond prices somewhat, but the effect is difficult to pin down. another issue is the influence of still - growing globalization, arguably one of the key factors that has facilitated the financing of the u. s. current account deficit. there is little evidence that the growth of globalization has yet slowed. the dramatic advances over the past decade in virtually all measures of globalization have resulted in an international economic environment with little relevant historical precedent. 7 i have argued elsewhere that the u. s. current account deficit cannot widen forever but that, fortunately, the increased flexibility of the american economy will likely facilitate any adjustment without significant consequences to aggregate economic activity. 8 that argument will be tested, i suspect, by possibly new twists and turns that will emerge in a seemingly ever - more complex international economic and financial structure. the r² of a simple regression using quarterly data since 1952 is 0. 5. adding a trend to reflect the influence of other factors such as the greater income elasticity of demand of u. s. imports relative to that of exports raises the r² to 0. 7 and does not reduce the significance of the connection between home mortgage debt and the current account. to be sure, the rapid globalization of the latter part of

digital currency for retail and wholesale payments in mauritius. we are determined to make our country a leader in the region, where a well - regulated central bank - issued digital currency becomes a reality. i am pleased to announce that, as part of its financial literacy strategy, and to contribute to the emergence of a new breed of mauritian tech entrepreneurs, the bank will launch early next year a fintech competition. this competition will target college and university students and will serve as an incubator hub to develop apps that will benefit consumers of financial products and services. cybersecurity remains paramount for the bank. we are living in a world where cyberattacks on the banking industry are increasing and are being committed with more sophisticated tools. the bank is already monitoring the sw ift customer security programme. it is conscious that additional tools and precautions must be taken by the industry as a whole. the bank wishes to have an industry approach to this problem and proposes to come up with an enhanced cybersecurity framework for the banking industry. this framework will be based on the latest bank for international settlements and the financial stability institute standards and principles. my vision is a banking landscape where technology will redefine bank - customer interaction. i want a dynamic banking landscape without impediments for mobility, flexibility, accessibility, and security. let the future of the banking industry show the truth in the statement uttered by the great charles darwin. i quote : “ it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. it is the one that is the most adaptable to change! ” end of quote. ladies and gentlemen, we need to own the change process of our country. whether you are from the business community or from the media, you all have a determining role to play in sketching this new economic and financial landscape. i hope that you are as eager as i am to dive into the future! on that note, i take this opportunity to convey to you, on behalf of the board of directors, staff members of the bank and in my own name, our warmest regards and best wishes for the upcoming festive period. i thank you for your attention. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches