amando m tetangco, jr : managing external debt, a move to ensure economic growth speech by mr amando m tetangco, jr, governor of bangko sentral ng pilipinas ( the central bank of the philippines ), at the launch of the foreign loan approval and registration system ( flares ), manila, 20 march 2012. * * * i wish to thank everyone for joining us today for the launch of flares or the foreign loan approval and registration system. this is the newest bsp electronic innovation and is part of our continuing efforts to enhance the delivery of services to our stakeholders. the vision through the years, the bsp has consciously and progressively adopted measures to move towards a paperless system. taking advantage of the prevalence of the internet and the robustness of the philpass, the flares project certainly takes us another step closer to this vision. as you saw from the presentation of the operational highlights, flares will facilitate the submission of applications for approval and registration of loans via the internet … payment of processing fees will likewise be more convenient, using the branch network of participating banks …. finally, participants will be able to monitor the status of applications online … it is our expectation therefore that flares … in addition to improving operational efficiency … will also move us towards greater transparency in our delivery of services to stakeholders. today, flares is realized because of the active partnership of a select group of banks – banco de oro, bank of the philippine islands, land bank of the philippines and the philippine national bank. …. i would also like to express our appreciation to the public and private sector borrowers who provided useful feedback and cooperated in the pilot testing of flares. …. of course, this project would not be possible without the creative ideas and critical support of the officers and staff of the bangko sentral ng pilipinas who collaborated to see the project to its completion, particularly the international operations department under the international sub - sector, the information technology sub - sector, the payments and settlements office, and the financial accounting department. the reason the launch of flares is indeed quite timely, in light of all the developments in external debt dynamics across the globe. while i don ’ t believe the philippines is about to enter any kind of external debt crisis … any time soon …. i believe now is a good time to take stock … and be reminded ( through the experiences in other jurisdictions ) of the possible consequences – both intended and otherwise – of

slowing foreign growth contributed to a decline in exports and a fall in import prices over the second half of last year. in contrast, the recent step - down in longterm rates and easing in the dollar have lessened pressures on yields in emerging markets and provided more policy space in some cases. see international monetary fund ( 2019 ) and organisation for economic co - operation and development ( 2019 ). - 4in the united states, financial markets saw substantial volatility late last year, which may still be affecting sentiment. from september to december of last year, financial conditions tightened considerably, with the stock market falling as much as 20 percent, and corporate bond premiums rising. this year, much of that tightening has reversed : the s & p 500 has made up more than half of its earlier losses, and corporate risk spreads have reversed much of their earlier tightening. long - term treasury yields rose from september through november and have since more than retraced, returning to the levels of early 2018. while the dollar has edged down from the peaks reached in the fall, it is about 7 percent higher than the lows seen early last year. overall, the softer spending data in the u. s. and the slowdown abroad, along with earlier financial volatility, are likely weighing on the modal outlook and might in turn warrant a softening in the modal path for policy. risks to the outlook let me turn now to the second category of crosscurrents facing the u. s. economy : the risks around the modal outlook. policy uncertainty has been elevated recently and has been cited as an important factor in the financial volatility late last year. although some of the risks have been anticipated for some time, recent events have brought them into heightened focus, and the accumulation of these risks could lead to some erosion in sentiment that could in turn feed into activity. trade dispute escalation remains a risk. the tariffs and trade disruptions that have occurred so far are estimated to have had relatively modest effects on aggregate growth and inflation, although damaging disruptions have been concentrated in some sectors, such as soybeans. while recent reports suggest some progress, the prospect of - 5additional tariffs in the trade conflict with china or on automobiles have been cited frequently as a risk in earnings reports and reports from business contacts. the recent longest - ever government shutdown created hardship for many families and has increased attention on upcoming fiscal negotiations. on current estimates, the debt ceiling will need