u. s. virgin islands — and is the area the new york fed is responsible for. i spent yesterday and today meeting with district business leaders, community organizers, and elected officials, hearing about their work, their successes, and their challenges. people ’ s experiences are influenced by the macro level, but their local economy plays an equal, and often more important role in shaping their economic opportunity. one aspect of the fed that we don ’ t talk about enough is the work our regional economists and our outreach teams do, trying to understand what ’ s going on at the local level. while the u. s. economy has been growing for the last 10 years, analysis by new york fed economists shows that not everyone is feeling the benefits equally. growth is concentrated in the largest cities like new york and san francisco, and those who benefit the most are those who already have high incomes. 2 a large part of this is because current economic conditions favor highly skilled workers who tend to flock to cities. these big metropolitan areas are successful, but they also suffer from some of the starkest wage inequality in the country. by contrast, upstate new york is less unequal, but the disappearance of manufacturing jobs has held back growth. more equal wage growth is only good news if people have jobs. but many have found themselves in the position of leaving the area in which they grew up to look for work. the albany area has bucked this trend. the mix of colleges and universities specializing in innovative subjects like nanotechnology, and high - tech businesses, alongside its position as a state capital, has created a real economic success story. i know there are a lot of students in the room, and choosing suny was a wise move. investing in an education that equips you for the future will pay off over the long term. the tale of many economies so what can the fed do about this complex picture — the tale of many economies i ’ ve talked about today? 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches monetary policy is an important tool, but it alone cannot address all the economic issues that we face. the policies we enact at the fomc are vitally important for sustaining growth at the national level, but they can ’ t determine everything that happens at the local level. this is where our community development work comes in. through our research and outreach, we put data and analysis into the hands of community leaders to give them tools to strengthen their local economies. we have programs that use

we tend to focus a lot on data such as the inflation rate, employment, unemployment, and gdp growth. but, that ’ s not all — we also collect and analyze enormous amounts of other information to help us assess the state of the economy and the economic outlook. 1 so, what does all that information tell us about the current economic outlook? after surging ahead last year, the u. s. economy appears now to be growing at a more moderate pace. i expect gdp growth to be around 2 - 1 / 4 percent this year, moderately above my estimate of the long - run sustainable growth rate for the economy. in my past speeches, i often mentioned the fact that we ’ re nearing the longest expansion on record. well, as of this month, i can finally say that we ’ ve reached that milestone. the economy has been growing for 121 months — a little over 10 years. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches while this is undoubtedly good news, the headline data mask a more nuanced economic picture. consumer spending has been an important driver of growth, and the most recent readings have been very positive. however, other signs point to slowing growth. in particular, the latest indicators suggest that business fixed investment has softened and that manufacturing production is in decline. and the outlook for growth outside the united states has dimmed, which will weigh on demand for u. s. products. this mixed picture is mirrored in the employment data. on one hand, the unemployment rate, which stands at 3. 7 percent, is near the lowest we ’ ve seen in 50 years. on the other, job growth has slowed this year relative to last year ’ s pace. finally, turning to prices, the latest data show that underlying inflation is 1. 6 percent, below our 2 percent goal. the major challenge with inflation that ’ s persistently lower than 2 percent is that low inflation feeds into inflation expectations. if inflation stays too low, people will start to expect it to stay that way, creating a vicious cycle, pushing inflation further down over the longer term, and making it harder to achieve our goals through monetary policy. the second district all of these numbers tell the story of the u. s. economy at the macro level, but they ’ re not always reflected in the real experiences of americans across the country. i referred at the beginning of this speech to the second district — which includes new york state, parts of new jersey and connecticut, puerto rico, and the