samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
24 ; pp80 5 nabard annual report – 2023 - 24 ; pp10 6 nafpo. 2023. farmer producer organisations in india : state of sector report. national association of farmer producer organisations, new delhi. 7 agricultural statistics at a glance, 2022 6 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches

01. 07. 2022 closing ceremony of the academic year 2021 - 2022 centro de estudios monetarios y financieros ( cemfi ) pablo hernandez de cos governor good afternoon rector and colleagues. and good afternoon class of 2022. it is a pleasure for me to participate in this graduation ceremony together with carlos andradas, rector of the universidad internacional menendez pelayo, and rafael repullo, director of the cemfi. i would especially like to thank carlos andradas for being here today. as you know the main activity of the universidad internacional menendez pelayo takes place in the summer in the delightful, charming and vibrant city of santander ( you can take this description at face value, with no need to apply a haircut due to my own origins in the region ). so i greatly appreciate his coming to madrid to participate in this graduation ceremony. the partnership of the cemfi with the universidad internacional menendez pelayo, dating back to 2006, has been instrumental in improving our ability to attract first - rate students and the quality of our graduate programme, and i am very grateful for this. our society needs this constant drive for excellence, especially in the present circumstances. these are difficult times. following the covid - 19 pandemic and its economic consequences, the russian invasion of ukraine last february has provided a further negative shock, heightening uncertainty and worsening inflationary pressures and growth prospects. this is a particularly challenging environment for economic policy. to address current structural and cyclical challenges we need to rely on the analysis and advice of well - trained economists whether they are in the academia, in the public administration, central banks or the private sector. this is why it is so important to have academic institutions like cemfi, that produce groundbreaking research and invest heavily in boosting the single most important determinant of economic growth : human capital. students of the class of 2022, what you take from here – your knowledge and the tools needed to analyse and understand reality – is the accumulated capital stemming from what is probably the most important investment you will make in your whole life. you have invested your time and effort. and the yield on this investment will be a wide array of opportunities. but, above all, this human capital you now possess is something that nobody can take away from you. it will accompany you everywhere you go and you can apply it in every endeavour you may undertake.
here during the next two days. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

opening the capital market is that foreign capital inflows contribute to economic growth – not only directly, through capital accumulation, but also indirectly, through the associated benefits of the improvement of financial infrastructure. they expanded from 220 trillion us dollars to 1, 726 trillion us dollars during the period according to international financial statistics of imf. but there are many instances where large capital flows have proved to be something of a double - edged sword. they bring great benefits, but also pose risks and policy dilemmas. here the words of imf managing director dominique strauss - kahn are very apt. last week in shanghai, he warned that “ capital flows can lead to exchange rate overshooting, credit booms, asset price bubbles, and financial instability ”. what then are the risk factors inherent in international capital flows? firstly there is the procyclicality of these flows, and secondly, there is the dilemma countries face in their policy responses to them. pro - cyclicality of capital flows once their capital markets are liberalized, capital flows bring about increased economic volatility. capital flows are essentially pro - cyclical. put more simply, capital inflows surge greatly during economic booms, but decline or go into reverse during economic slowdowns. in boom periods, large - scale capital inflows can trigger internal imbalances by driving inflation up and increasing asset prices. at the same time they can cause or worsen external imbalances as well, for example, by widening a current account deficit through currency appreciation. massive surges in capital flows can also increase systemic risk in the financial sector by aggravating maturity and currency mismatches between assets and liabilities of financial institutions. in an economic downturn, or when exuberance turns to “ angst ”, in contrast, foreign capital flows out rapidly. this brings in its train currency depreciation and a sudden drop in foreign reserves. real sector economic activities also slow further, due to balance sheet effects arising from currency depreciation as well as a double drain of liquidity – from both the domestic financial and foreign exchange markets. there was an abrupt and massive outflow of capital after the global financial crisis erupted. the emerging market economies experienced very severe turbulence in financial markets, even though they were not at the epicenter of the financial crisis. the impossible trinity another problem arising from cross - border capital flows is the worsening of conflicts between a country ’ s internal and external policy goals. in an open
5 under these assumptions, the cbo calculates that, by 2030, the federal budget deficit will approach 9 percent of gdp - more than four times greater as a share of gdp than the deficit in fiscal year 2006. a particularly worrisome aspect of this projection and similar ones is the implied evolution of the national debt and the associated interest payments to government bondholders. minor details aside, the federal debt held by the public increases each year by the amount of that year's unified deficit. consequently, scenarios that project large deficits also project rapid growth in the outstanding government debt. the higher levels of debt in turn imply increased expenditures on interest payments to bondholders, which exacerbate the deficit problem still further. thus, a vicious cycle may develop in which large deficits lead to rapid growth in debt and interest payments, which in turn adds to subsequent deficits. according to the cbo projection that i have been discussing, interest payments on the government's debt will reach 4 - 1 / 2 percent of gdp in 2030, nearly three times their current size relative to national output. under this scenario, the ratio of federal debt held by the public to gdp would climb from 37 percent currently to roughly 100 percent in 2030 and would continue to grow exponentially after that. the only time in u. s. history that the debt - to - gdp ratio has been in the neighborhood of 100 percent was during world war ii. people at that time understood the situation to be temporary and expected deficits and the debt - to - gdp ratio to fall rapidly after the war, as in fact they did. in contrast, under the scenario i have been discussing, the debt - to - gdp ratio would rise far into the future at an accelerating rate. ultimately, this expansion of debt would spark a fiscal crisis, which could be addressed only by very sharp spending cuts or tax increases, or both. the cbo projections, by design, ignore the adverse effects that such high deficits would likely have on economic growth. but if government debt and deficits were actually to grow at the pace envisioned by the cbo's scenario, the effects on the u. s. economy would be severe. high rates of government for example, in 2030, five of the six scenarios imply deficits ranging from 1 - 1 / 2 percent of gdp to nearly 14 percent of gdp ; a sixth scenario is capable of producing a surplus, but it relies on the confluence of a very favorable

us a system of government, and a culture of enterprise, that has propelled the united states to the greatest prosperity the world has ever experienced. the contributions of our national leaders, people like president ford, have sustained and promoted that culture in the most difficult of circumstances and have given us the tools to improve upon this inheritance in ways that we have yet to imagine.
you bring their best. may the best team win! 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

- mobile financial workers. since the eu has a harmonised approach to financial regulation, regulatory competition among member states should not be a driving factor in determining locational choices within the eu. this applies a fortiori to the euro area, since the ecb - led ssm provides a unified institutional framework for the supervision of banks. accordingly, the bank's approach to authorising and regulating financial firms is firmly embedded in the wider european system of financial supervision ( esfs ). in particular, the bank has a well - established approach to authorisations, in line with the practice of our continental peers. we implement our mission statement of “ safeguarding stability, protecting consumers ” by ensuring that the applicant comply with all relevant eu and national legislative and prudential requirements. these requirements protect consumers of financial services from the potential effects of fraud or failure and assure the various types of funders of financial entities that corporate governance safeguards are robust. in addition, the stability of the domestic and international financial systems is a key focus for the bank and international regulators, with well - designed recovery and resolution plans for financial firms ( especially systemically - important institutions ) an important element in limiting contagion and protecting taxpayers in the event that a firm goes bust. the bank is committed to providing a clear, consistent, open and transparent authorisation process, while ensuring a rigorous assessment of the applicable regulatory standards. the authorisation gateway forms an important part of our supervisory model, based on assertive risk - based supervision in line with international standards, and underpinned by the credible threat of enforcement. to ensure transparent and predictable authorisation timelines for highvolume processes, the bank publishes on a semi - annual basis its service standards in respect of processing authorisations : coincidentally, the latest report in this series will be published later today. in relation to unique and complex applications, the authorisation process is inevitably more layered than routine cases, requiring a substantial commitment of resources and the assembly of dedicated project teams with the requisite technical skills and internal governance processes. to deliver an efficient and robust regulatory regime, the bank has expanded its target staffing levels in recent years, subject to the capacity to recruit and retain those with the required skills and experience. since the establishment of the ssm, the ecb, with input from the relevant national competent authority ( in ireland, the bank ), is the competent authority for granting banking licences. the assessment criteria are detailed, rigorously applied and unchanged
, cross - border activity within the euro area is still relatively limited, even though it is gaining in importance : a trend gradually increasing the level of competition and efficiency in the financial system. • further work is needed in order to achieve the goal of a single market for financial services. to this end, the ecb and the eurosystem are actively involved in several initiatives that help foster financial integration, including : the launch of target2, the new payment platform for the financial system, which is planned for the end of 2007 ; the european commission ’ s green paper on mortgage credit in the eu. the mortgage credit market is an important segment of the banking and retail markets, with an outstanding volume of more than €4 trillion in the eu, which corresponds to around 40 % of eu gdp. euro area mortgage markets are not yet fully integrated, and i believe there is great potential for further integration in this respect ; and the single euro payments area ( sepa ) project, the aim of which is to integrate the market for retail payment services. to sum up, these examples clearly show that the euro is having a remarkable impact, particularly on the financial market segments that are more directly affected by the single currency and monetary policy, such as fixed - income markets. hence, interdependence within the euro area is becoming stronger. 2. my second remark is about the actual functioning of emu. before the launch of the euro, some experts feared that a single monetary policy would not suit a group of countries that were still diverse. but, after nearly a decade, the euro area has proved to be a success. the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across euro area countries has grown since the 1990s and remains high. there is evidence of a stronger common euro area cycle that accounts for a large part of the business cycle fluctuations. a. furthermore, however favourable the previously mentioned statistics are, they cannot fully capture the fact that the euro area has become more resilient to external developments than its individual member countries ever were before the launch of the euro. national economic policies have become better coordinated and the intraeuropean impact of external exchange rate turbulences has been of course totally removed. b. let me give you some specific examples of this increasing resilience : since 1999, the euro area has successfully weathered several common shocks, including the bursting of the dotcom bubble, the ripple effects of the terrorist attacks in the united states on 11 september 2001, the surge in global

be done in several areas, such as raising the flexibility and adaptability of the individual euro area economies and paying close attention to cost competitiveness in the various economies. the achievements of emu and our monetary policy support the reforms that are urgently needed in many countries. we look forward to welcoming you wholeheartedly into the euro area. thank you very much for your attention.
prospects. this gives us a good picture of the state of the norwegian economy. after a period of high activity and little spare capacity, the network now reports weak overall economic growth. at the same time, there are wide differences across industries. while companies supplying goods and services to the petroleum industry are enjoying strong growth, the construction industry is experiencing a decline in activity. few new homes are being built. in the secondary housing market, many homes have not been sold, and house prices have fallen. we cannot use the policy rate to fine - tune developments in individual sectors. at the same time, we are attentive to industries that stand out. a sharp upswing or decline in some industries may have substantial spillover effects or more lasting effects that may change the economic outlook. this may then also have implications for the orientation of monetary policy. slide 9 : the policy rate is likely close to the level needed to tackle inflation monetary policy is now having a tightening effect on the economy, and we have not yet seen the full effects of the past rate hikes. the committee assesses that the policy rate is likely close to the level needed to tackle inflation. at our monetary policy meeting in november, we signalled that we will probably raise the policy rate in december, and we believe there will likely be a need to maintain a tight stance for some time ahead. there is substantial uncertainty surrounding economic developments. over the past couple of years, inflation has repeatedly been underestimated, and we have had to revise up our policy rate forecasts. it is demanding to make economic forecasts – particularly now that the economy has been exposed to major shocks, and because we have little experience of the current high inflation. i cannot therefore make any promises about the interest rate outlook. what i can promise is that we will adapt monetary policy to the economic outlook. with effective 5 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches interaction between wage determination, fiscal policy and monetary policy, we are well poised to return inflation to target while avoiding a severe economic downturn. 6 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches

for some time – is crucial if the fund is to deliver the returns we expect in the longer term. thank you for your attention.
we look forward to welcoming estonia into the euro area! thank you very much for your attention. see “ reinforcing economic governance in the euro area ”, available on the ecb ’ s website ( www. ecb. europa. eu ).

, when the overheating pressures became most apparent. efforts to reduce wage growth and contain rapid credit growth during that period also proved largely ineffective. in the end, the macroeconomic imbalances accumulated by the estonian economy were quite significant, and the magnitude and speed of the adjustment that followed were indeed dramatic. however, the estonian economy, and the citizens that support it, adapted rather quickly to the new economic environment, proving a remarkable capacity for adjustment. this speaks for the flexibility of estonia ’ s economy and the “ alertness ” of its people. the new economic environment required prompt, determined action and the adoption of difficult policy measures. the implementation of such measures contributed to estonia ’ s prudent fiscal record and the rapid unwinding of the external and internal imbalances that had built up during the boom years. competitiveness is gradually being restored and the current and capital account balance has recorded a surplus since the beginning of 2009. the adjustment of nominal wages has been, and will continue to be, an essential element of the gradual correction of competitiveness losses and the return to sustainable output growth. developments in the public sector, where nominal wages declined by around 10 % in 2009, contributed to the adjustment of wages in the economy as a whole. sustainable wage dynamics, with increases in line with productivity progress, will continue to be crucial to restoring competitiveness and maintaining a low inflation environment. encouragingly, estonia ’ s economic recession appears to be over, but as you know, this is no time for complacency. with this in mind, it will be particularly important for estonia and other euro area countries to support the reallocation of domestic resources to export - oriented, high value added sectors in order to ensure a return to sustainable external positions. to encourage sustainable job creation, it is important to ensure that wages remain sufficiently flexible. finally – but crucially from the ecb ’ s perspective – the estonian authorities must remain alert, and take forceful action if necessary, to ensure that the low inflation environment that has been achieved in the recent past is sustained over the years to come. the experiences of estonia and various euro area countries over the past few years highlight the importance of rigorous and effective surveillance inside the single currency area. in line with the treaty, the ecb attaches great importance to the notion of sustainability. a country must only be eligible to adopt the euro when it has achieved a high degree of sustainable convergence and its economy is in a position to fully reap the
country. thank you for your attention today and for your warm and generous friendship. meegwetch, merci, thank you.

distort the market for the viable banks. another challenge is to improve banking practices and banking culture. reform of banking regulation is part of this change. apart from stricter capital requirements, the new regulatory framework will also gradually develop stricter standards for bank liquidity. the risks of making long - term commitments with excessively volatile funding have been amply revealed during the recent crisis. i regard improved regulation as an absolute necessity after the experiences of the last four years. at the same time, we must acknowledge that regulation alone is not enough. bis central bankers ’ speeches therefore, what the ongoing reforms really aim for is a change in the culture of banking. banking must renounce the excessive adventurism of the last decade and develop a stability culture of its own, so that citizens will once more see banking as an engine of solid economic progress rather than a conduit for short - term speculation. macroprudential policy one of the key lessons of the latest global financial crisis is that central banks – and other authorities – need to pay much more attention to financial stability and macroprudential oversight. new institutions in which central banks play a key role have been created to identify systemic risks and to take appropriate action. examples of such institutes include the european systemic risk board ( esrb ) in the eu, the financial policy committee ( fpc ) within the bank of england and the financial stability oversight council ( fsoc ) in the united states. macroprudential policy is still in its formative phase. but it is clear that new tools need to be developed in order to complement the more traditional instruments of monetary policy. these tools will pertain to capital standards, lending practices, and liquidity management of credit institutions. and the tools must work in relation to the changing financial market situation, preventing the development of excessive systemic risks and contagion. the recent financial crisis painfully showed how quickly financial crises can spread over national borders in a world of integrated financial markets and systems. because of the everdeepening financial integration, financial cycles are likely to be highly correlated across countries also in the future. in such a world, a successful macroprudential policy in any country entails positive externalities in the form of reduced financial risks in other countries. conversely, erring on the side of inaction produces negative externalities to other countries, as financial problems will spread across national and currency borders. i argue that in the absence of effective international coordination, national policymakers are likely