important thing, in contrast to the previous and other growth cycles, is that it is growing without an increase in loans and without a real estate bubble. with lending growth that is below nominal gdp and a current account surplus in the balance of payments. as long as these two things continue, the spanish economy will keep growing faster than the rest. the recommendation, which is also valid for portugal, greece and ireland, and even for italy, is this : stabilise the banking sector and the credit markets. and maintain competitiveness. then you will do better than average. 3 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches the public message is quite clear. are there more discreet messages in private? no, none. i say the same thing in public that i do in private. have the ecb ’ s non - standard measures run their course? no. we can still increase bond purchases or lower interest rates further, which means that we still have the same tools available. what is happening is that the secondary effects are becoming more tangible. and each measure has less of a return. i look at the effects, and these can vary greatly. i am worried by risk taking in the asset management sector against the background of low interest rates. it is a matter of concern for me. banks are now better capitalised, they have more liquidity, and they are much safer than they were. but they face low profitability, which is a problem. supervision is centralised and is more suitable than when it was the remit of national authorities. but in the area of asset management and investment funds, what we see is that, in a low interest rate environment, their investment strategy always moves towards increased risk, in the sense of assets with potentially greater returns and greater risks but that are less liquid. and there is also more leveraging, not to the extent seen in the united states, but still more than before. and the supervision in this sector is not comparable with that in the banking sector. there is a risk. if they are asked for units to be paid out they have to do so within two or three days. i see a potential risk of liquidity imbalance. that is what worries me the most at the moment. and, while it may not technically be a secondary effect of monetary policy, because its causes are structural, i am concerned by the banking sector ’ s low profitability. are you in favour of changing or widening the ecb ’ s mandate? or of defining more

- side risks, logistics problems and bottlenecks in production chains remain a significant risk as these issues may persist longer than we estimate today. the abovementioned problem of a limited availability of labour resources is another risk, which is becoming increasingly important. moreover, this problem may become even more serious. this is equally relevant for both the russian labour market and the constraints experienced by other economies. a decline in global demand due to a slowdown in the world economy may become a disinflationary risk. this may happen, for instance, in the case of a large - scale new wave of the pandemic, accompanied by extensive lockdowns in the majority of countries. another scenario where inflationary pressure might also weaken faster in the russian economy is a quick easing of the restrictions on foreign travel for both outbound tourism and the inflow of labour migrants. there is a number of factors, the potential impact of which is uncertain today. in the first place, these are the volumes and quality of the grain and vegetable harvest this year both in russia and worldwide. moreover, it is still uncertain how steady global inflation is and how fast and extensively other central banks will respond to it. winding up, i would like to comment on our future actions. we hold open the prospect of further key rate rises at the upcoming meetings. we will assess whether it is reasonable to increase the key rate, as well as how long the key rate should be maintained at the level achieved taking into account economic developments, inflation trends, and largely the balance of risks to future inflation, including those associated with persistently elevated inflation expectations. in addition to the baseline scenario, we also consider various other scenarios of potential developments in the russian and global economies. the three scenarios describing the key possible circumstances in the external environment were released last week in the monetary policy guidelines for the next three years. monetary policy will be able to bring inflation back to the target regardless of whether the baseline or an alternative scenario materialises. thank you all for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches