##p, i. e. 0. 5 % of annual gdp, to achieve a structural public balance in equilibrium. in this regard, if the ratio between the total tax take and gdp is taken as reference, it stood at approximately 35 % last year, around 6 pp lower than that recorded in the euro area as a whole ( decreasing to around 3 pp when the arithmetic mean of the various countries is considered ). spain is particularly notable for its low level of consumption taxation, in international comparisons, and for a low revenueraising capacity in respect of environmental taxes. specifically, the simulation presented on the slide assumes that potential economic growth will stand at slightly above 1 %, the gdp deflator will converge towards 2 % from the mid - 2020s, and average interest rates on debt will rise only moderately from their present levels. moreover, it should be emphasised that debt reductions would be greater under alternative scenarios in which the potential economic growth rate rises, highlighting the importance of pursuing policies in this respect, which i will now go on to discuss. 11 ( ii ) policies to foster long - term growth in the strategies to reduce public debt in the medium and long term, the role played by policies to promote sustained growth in activity and employment must be at least as important as that of the multi - year budget plans. at the start of my testimony, i stressed that the key objective of economic policy at the current stage of the crisis must be to ensure the most favourable conditions possible for when the economy emerges from lockdown. however, more persistent adverse effects on certain sectors after the pandemic has been brought under control cannot be ruled out, although it is undoubtedly too early to anticipate how extensive they will be, or which activities will bear the brunt of the impact. further, certain tentative indications suggest that, in the long term, demand could fall in some sectors, such as retail trade, and increase in others, such as logistics, technology, and it systems. in view of this possibility, it would seem advisable to make the relevant preparations through arrangements to ease cross - sectoral and cross - company reallocation and to strengthen the lifelong learning of workers, especially considering that a priori the cross - sector transferability of knowledge between potential losers and potential winners does not appear to be particularly feasible. 12 for illustrative purposes, if, as a result of implementing structural reforms, potential growth were to rise by 0. 5 pp per annum, the debt ratio under

that, unlike permanent employees, temporary workers can scarcely count on any protection once their contract expires, unless exceptional measures are deployed that are tantamount to such protection. beyond considerations of fairness, the high proportion of temporary employment in our labour market makes for a high procyclicality of employment, which tends to exacerbate the depth of recessions, in addition to generating negative effects on productivity, which i shall refer to later. higher labour turnover and the high rate of part - time employment chiefly affect the young. this group is particularly vulnerable in these circumstances, since it has fewer buffers to withstand unexpected declines in income, and the public insurance mechanisms available to them are limited compared with other groups. moreover, the young had still not recouped their levels of income and wealth prior to the financial crisis. set against the high uncertainty mentioned, preparing macroeconomic projections with the usual methodologies is an enormously difficult task. this is why the banco de espana opted, in its publication on 20 april, to prepare several alternative scenarios using different analytical tools. 2 in any of the scenarios considered, confinement would translate into a very severe contraction in spanish gdp in 2020, all the greater the longer the period during which it is necessary to retain the restrictions on economic activity, and with greater risks that the see banco de espana ( 2020 ), “ reference macroeconomic scenarios for the spanish economy after covid - 19 ”, analytical articles, economic bulletin, 2 / 2020. liquidity problems many economic agents are currently facing will lead to situations of insolvency. looking ahead to next year, these scenarios outline a recovery in activity and employment which, nonetheless, would be insufficient for gdp to attain its pre - covid - 19 trend level. specifically, in the two scenarios recently published by the banco de espana that seem most realistic at present, having ruled out the third which projected a shorter and more moderate recession, gdp is expected to fall by 9. 5 % and 12. 4 %, respectively, in 2020 ( and post subsequent increases of 6. 1 % and 8. 5 % in 2021 ). 3 the figures in the first of these scenarios do not differ significantly from those reported by other national and supranational institutions, public and private alike. thus, for example, the spanish government, the international monetary fund ( imf ) and the european commission have recently projected declines in our economy of 9. 2 %, 8 % and 9. 4 % for