early march ” for net asset purchases. 3. degree of commitment however, no central bank can define in advance all the states under which policy rates will remain fixed. in this sense, we cannot totally bind our hands with rules, and should keep some element of discretion facing unexpected data or events. forward guidance is never setting policy on auto - pilot. there will always be an element of judgement, including about the distribution of risks around the staff projections. central banks should be predictable, but not precommitted. forward guidance in uncertain times let me fine tune this general discussion in uncertain times, because we are certainly living through such an unexpected period : the unprecedented “ covid economy ”, geo - political tensions including ukraine, the energy crisis, and the two great transformations ahead – digital and ecological. forward guidance is a trade - off between the benefits of signalling intentions in advance and the constraints this places on future actions. in periods of high uncertainty, these effects accrue to both sides. on the one hand, indicative policy paths can help reduce unnecessary volatility and clarify ambiguity. on the other hand, in volatile situations, policy makers need to be more agile to respond to new data and risks. let me therefore turn back to the three practical issues i discussed earlier and try to draw three lessons for uncertain times : 1. the time horizon : even in normal times, forward guidance loses power over the longer term, as i said. but the greater the uncertainty, the shorter the forward guidance should be. its reasonable horizon at present should be a matter of quarters rather than years. 2. the balance between calendar and state dependency : in the very short run, dates are more efficient to influence markets and economic agents ’ expectations. but beyond the horizon of some months, state - contingent forward guidance is more preferable. and it should rely not only on forecasts – models are fragile in uncertain times – but also significantly on actual data. we should listen to the present and real world of price and wage setters – businesses and households –, who are at least as important as macromodelling or market expectations. 3. in the face of uncertainty, not being precommitted is an absolute imperative. the two most important words for central bankers recently are “ agility ” and “ humility ” – frankly, these are more than just words, they are the daily reality for us. jay powell rightly promises to be “ humble and nimble ”. we at the ecb

further converge national legislation and boost competition in the market for payment services, improving the transparency and reliability of the products offered to firms and the public. by standardizing the payment instruments made available by sepa and employing advanced technology for e - commerce and mobile and internet communications it will be possible to create a more modern payment market, in line with european and italian policies to increase the spread of information technology. sepa will bring substantial benefits to all concerned. firms will be able to make and receive payments via a single account at any european bank. using the iso standard, which can be see “ la sepa e i suoi riflessi sul sistema dei pagamenti italiano ”, tematiche istituzionali, banca d ’ italia, november 2013 ( http : / / www. bancaditalia. it / pubblicazioni / temist / sepa - riflessi - sistema - pagamenti / testo. pdf ). bis central bankers ’ speeches integrated with banks ’ own management software, will foster innovation in several ways, from integrating the collection process to rationalizing accounting procedures. there will be significant advantages for small firms as well. sepa will also facilitate the use of internet and innovative communication systems such as tablets and smartphones, offering consumers flexibility in the use of different means of payment at low costs. users ’ payments and collections with firms and the public sector will improve with the use of electronic instruments. from the banks ’ point of view, retail payment services not only account for a large part of total expenditure and revenue, 2 but they are an important route to customer loyalty through the provision of high - quality services at affordable prices. although european market integration may entail a loss of position in the very short term, in a longer perspective it will enlarge the potential supply and open the way for advanced technology products. similar benefits await non - bank providers of payment services and managers of retail payment systems who are called on to create a europe - wide network. i would like to make a final comment on the importance of sepa for italy. non - cash means of payment are used less in our country than elsewhere in europe. paper - based payment instruments are still widely employed, although they are more costly for issuers and less secure for users. the characteristics of the italian market and the payment habits of the population reflect the structural characteristics of the productive system, such as the limited use of more advanced means of communication,