november 2018 and as of november 2019. gdp is gross domestic product ; pce is personal consumption expenditures ; core pce excludes food and energy items. gdp growth and inflation projections are four−quarter percent changes through 2019 : q4 ; the unemployment rate projection is for 2019 : q4. source : federal reserve bank of philadelphia, survey of professional forecasters ( retrieved from https : / / www. philadelphiafed. org / research−and−data / real−time−center / survey−of− professional−forecasters ), and real−time data set : full−time series history ( retrieved from https : / / www. philadelphiafed. org / research−and−data / real−time−center / real−time−data ). figure 2. estimates of the neutral rate of interest and the natural rate of unemployment have been falling fomc blue chip neutral real rate of interest ( r * ) cbo natural rate of unemployment ( u * ) percent percent 2. 5 6. 0 2. 0 5. 5 1. 5 5. 0 1. 0 4. 5 0. 5 4. 0 note : the federal open market committee ( fomc ) data are quarterly, extend through september 2019, and are projections of these measures over the longer run. the blue chip data are biannual, extend through june 2019 for r * and october 2019 for u *, and are projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. the congressional budget office ( cbo ) data are biannual and extend through august 2019. for the left panel, the projections are for 10 years in the future ; the right panel shows the natural rate projection for the current quarter at the time of the projection. the neutral real interest rate is the 3−month treasury bill rate projection ( cbo ) or the federal funds rate projection ( fomc and blue chip ) minus the source ’ s inflation projection. source : for fomc, summary of economic projections, available on the board ’ s website at https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / fomccalendars. htm ; for blue chip, wolters kluwer, blue chip economic indicators and blue chip financial forecasts ; for cbo, congressional budget office ( the budget and economic outlook ) and federal reserve bank of st. louis ( alfred ). figure 3. overall and core personal consumption

in the ways that banks serve their customers and in the challenges faced by low - and moderate - income communities. the time is ripe to modernize the cra regulations to make them more effective in making credit available in low - and moderate - income areas at a time when technological and structural changes in the banking industry allow banks to serve customers outside of the areas with branches that have traditionally defined a bank ’ s community. as we update the rules, it should be possible to achieve better outcomes - - both providing banks with the greater clarity and predictability they seek while also facilitating better provision of credit, investments, and banking services in low - and moderate - income areas. there are several outcomes that we will work toward in the interagency rule - writing effort. first, we should seek to modernize the definition of assessment areas in such a way that the core focus remains the credit needs of local communities. the definition in the existing cra regulation of a bank ’ s assessment area - - that is, the area in which we evaluate a bank ’ s cra performance - - reflects a banking environment when interstate banking was not yet allowed, and physical branches were necessary to serve the deposit and lending needs of bank customers. technological advances and changing consumer preferences have made it possible for banks to serve customers far outside of their physical branches - - for example, online and on mobile devices. clearly, it is time to find a way to expand the area in which the agencies evaluate a bank ’ s cra activities. at the same time, it is important to retain a focus on place - - and in particular the credit needs of local communities. we are confident that there are ways to expand the area where we evaluate a bank ’ s cra performance without losing the regulation ’ s focus on the unique role banks play in meeting local credit needs and providing services that are only possible by using branches. treasury ’ s recommendation that the agencies revisit the regulations to allow cra consideration for a bank ’ s activities in its assessment area, as currently delineated around branches and deposit - taking automated teller machines, as well as in low - and moderateincome areas outside that branch footprint, is a reasonable place to start our interagency discussions. second, banks should be encouraged to seek opportunities in areas that are underserved. currently, a bank ’ s performance in its major markets is evaluated most closely and weighs most heavily in its cra rating. this emphasis has resulted in what banks and