items may be offset with possible adjustments to others. the draft state budget for 2013 sets an overall general government deficit target, in national accounts terms, of 4. 5 % of gdp, in line with european commitments. that is down from 6. 3 % envisaged for 2012, excluding from that figure the impact of the measures to support banks which must be recorded this year ( amounting to around 1 pp of gdp ). the budget envisages that the public debt ratio will increase from 85 % of gdp in 2012 bis central bankers ’ speeches ( including €30 billion of frob debt due to the drawdown in december of the credit line agreed with the european authorities ) to 91 % of gdp in 2013. the fiscal effort these targets entail is highly ambitious ( around 2 pp in terms of the cyclically adjusted primary deficit ), in a setting which will remain difficult. the macroeconomic scenario accompanying the budget envisages that gdp in real terms will contract 0. 5 %, as a result of the 2. 8 % fall in national demand which would be partly offset by a 2. 3 pp contribution by the external sector. the main difference between this macroeconomic setting and that of the imf or the european commission is the lower decline in gross capital formation projected in the budget. achievement of the targets set for 2013 may be jeopardised if tax receipts are affected by lower economic activity. expenditure in the state and social security budget is dominated by the interest on government debt, spending on contributory pensions and unemployment benefits. the sharp rise in these items reflects the increase in debt and the higher cost of new issues, demographic trends and the unfavourable performance of the labour market. to offset this expansionary trajectory, the budget adopts an austere stance on other expenditure items, in particular the remuneration of public employees and real investment. lastly, i must mention that the budget for 2013 saw the culmination of one of the most important agreements of the toledo pact, namely the separation of the social security system ’ s funding sources : on one hand, contributory pensions, funded solely by social contributions and, on the other, non - contributory supplements and non - contributory pensions, funded by taxes. this separation, which began to be applied in 2002, will finally be completed in 2013. the bank restructuring process finally, i would like to comment on the bank restructuring process under way further to the agreement entered into with the european authorities last july.

that the banking union is incomplete. we have not yet finished the work we began ten years ago. although the single supervisory and resolution mechanisms are fully operational, the european deposit insurance scheme ( edis ) is still pending. in the absence of political consensus, work is currently under way on an intermediate solution, namely the bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework ( cmdi ). last june5 the council of the eu agreed on a joint position with the european parliament, which has to be ratified. without going into detail, i firmly advocate aiming for the creation of this common framework, in order for the banking union to have true substance. in conclusion, the uncertain and changing environments in which banks operate today require that supervisory processes also be adapted so as to quickly and flexibly capture all elements related to their risk profile and be able to establish timely corrective and mitigating measures. supervision needs to be more efficient, targeted and transparent, both now and in the future. as with the world around us, supervision also has to evolve, if it is to fulfil its purpose : ensure a robust and stable financial system that provides the real economy with the resources it needs for its activity. banks ’ ability to react to unexpected shocks, and the existence of operational frameworks that strengthen their resilience in vulnerable digital environments with unforeseen or deliberate failures, will be key elements of tomorrow ’ s supervisory agenda. nor must the other aspects i have mentioned be neglected, such as governance, climate risk management and liquidity. if it is to be efficient, supervision needs to evolve in step with changes that impact the financial system. lhttps : / / www. consilium. europa. eu / en / press / press - releases / 2024 / 06 / 19 / bank - crisis - management - and - depositinsurance - framework - council - agrees - on - its - position /.