##ar as real interest rates will not substantially move up in the medium term. indeed, the rise in prices would push up the denominator of the debt - to - gdp ratio, an effect that is currently dominating the dynamics. it is nevertheless important to outline a realistic path for continuing the gradual recovery in the high levels of public debt to gdp that started last year. it would be an important signal of credibility for financial markets, which could translate into lower sovereign risk premiums. the budgetary margins that will become available and those created with the moderation of the dynamics of other expenses will make it possible to provide financial support to the economy. temporary and targeted support, with interventions aimed at households and firms in greater difficulty, will not compromise the state of the public finances and will also help to contain pressures on inflation. let me now turn on the euro area. in its latest projections, released in early september, the ecb revised gdp growth estimates to 0. 9 per cent in 2023, from 3. 1 per cent in 2022 ; with a month of additional data, the imf has revised them down to 0. 5 per cent, signalling a substantial halt. consumer price developments are no less concerning : inflation rose to 10. 7 per cent in october. net of energy and food, the most volatile components, core inflation rose to 5. 0 per cent. more than 60 per cent of the increase in consumer prices recorded in the last twelve months has been caused, directly and through the effects on production costs, by the increases in energy prices. this share rises to almost 80 per cent if we also take into account the effects of food prices not relating to energy, but which have also been affected by the conflict in ukraine. the growth of consumer prices in the euro area is projected to be above 8 per cent on average in 2022 ; it would then gradually fall to below 6 per cent over the course of next year and converge towards a value close to the ecb's 2 per cent target in the second half of 2024. expectations derived from the prices of inflationlinked swaps as well as those based on surveys carried out in october, such as those conducted by the ecb on monetary analysts or those of other private institutions, provide a similar picture. the expectations of households, as suggested by the ecb survey, display slightly higher values : 5 per cent by the end of 2023 and 3 per cent over a 3 - year horizon. this could reflect not

, is what type of architecture for cross - border payments platforms could complement or partially replace the correspondent banking network. one option is to make ‘ local ’ systems interconnected so that participants can clear and settle payments across systems ( in one or more currencies ) without participating in each of them. another option is to build up cross - border and / or multicurrency payment platforms allowing each participant to clear and settle payments across jurisdictions and / or currencies with their counterparties. our own thinking is that, while we are debating, we should bear in mind the need to achieve results quickly. that is why we are investigating how far we can go using the currently available infrastructure. an example of a payment system that can be used in various ways for providing quick and safe cross - currency solutions for instant payments is tips. from may 2022, following an agreement between the riksbank and the eurosystem, swedish banks will be able to settle their instant payments in krona in real time in tips. moreover, investigations are currently underway to explore the common instant payment infrastructure in order to provide a cross - currency solution for instant payment. a further step, currently at the ‘ proof of concept ’ stage, could be a direct interconnection between two systems for processing instant payments, namely tips and the buna platform. this would be an example of cross - currency, cross - continent payment systems integration, a path that could in the future become a sort of new frontier for central banks and private systems operators. cooperation is key for countering the consequences of the pandemic at a lower cost. luckily, it seems that multilateralism is regaining vigour. this is essential as polarization, distrust and inequalities are still pervasive in our societies. payments across jurisdictions are the bread and butter of future growth and prosperity, as they are a fundamental condition for the international mobility of goods and services, capital, and people. let us join forces to enhance them to the best of our ability. designed by the printing and publishing division of the bank of italy