risk towards market participants better able to absorb it. the markets are not signaling risks of instability at global level. 3. exchange rates and external imbalances according to the indicator calculated by the federal reserve, between february 2002 and january 2005 the effective exchange rate of the dollar fell by 15 per cent in both nominal and real terms. over the same period the euro appreciated by 24 per cent in nominal terms and by 21 per cent in real terms. the yen strengthened by 7 per cent ; in real terms it depreciated by 3 per cent. in 2004 the central banks of the asian countries again intervened on the foreign exchange market with massive purchases of dollars. in japan the official reserves rose to $ 850 billion, in china they grew by about $ 200 billion to exceed $ 600 billion ; in the other asian countries they now amount to $ 830 billion. reserve assets, mostly denominated in dollars, are equal to about 18 per cent of gdp in japan and to about 37 per cent in china. generally low rates of inflation and the peg to the dollar have enabled some asian countries to improve their competitiveness : since february 2002 the real effective exchange rates of the currencies of china, hong kong and malaysia have fallen by between 9 and 17 per cent. the competitiveness of thailand and taiwan has remained unchanged, while that of south korea and singapore has deteriorated slightly. after the financial crisis of 1997 the reference to the dollar in the management of exchange rates resulted in only limited changes in competitiveness among the emerging and newly industrialized asian countries, thereby encouraging the growth of regional trade, which has increased to about half the total. this integration reflects the spontaneous development of vertical integration of production within the region, in which each country tends to specialize in one phase of production. in the last ten years china ’ s share of international trade has increased significantly. it takes 13 per cent of japan ’ s exports and 17 per cent of those of the other emerging asian countries : it imports capital goods and components from japan, south korea and taiwan. it exports manufactures, for some ten years now mainly to the markets of the industrial countries. as globalization proceeds, the emerging asian economies, which have very low labour costs and faster productivity growth than the united states, cannot pursue policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate against the dollar for ever. such policies risk boosting inflation and fueling excessive increases in the prices of financial and real assets. in 2004 the large external deficit of the united states had

luzzatto fegiz, “ la distribuzione del reddito nazionale ”, giornale degli economisti e annali di economia 9 ( n. s. ), 1950, 341 – 354. a. baffigi, a. brandolini, l. cannari, g. d ’ alessio, “ l ’ indagine sui bilanci delle famiglie italiane. metodi, confronti, qualita dei dati ”, bank of italy, mimeo, 2015. see c. f. citro, “ from multiple modes for surveys to multiple data sources for estimates ”, survey methodology 40, 2014, 137 – 161. see a. baffigi, “ all ’ origine dell ’ indagine sui bilanci delle famiglie della banca d ’ italia ”, bank of italy, mimeo, 2015. on the usefulness, but also on several limitations attributed to the use of the “ representative method ”, an influential opinion was that expressed by corrado gini in an article co - authored with luigi galvani. see c. gini and l. galvani, “ di una applicazione del metodo rappresentativo all ’ ultimo censimento italiano della popolazione ( 1° dicembre 1921 ) ”, annali di statistica, series 6, 4, 1929, 1 – 107. z. griliches, “ data and econometricians – the uneasy alliance ”, american economic review papers and proceedings 75, 1985, 196 – 200. bis central bankers ’ speeches rather of intense, if at times thorny, dialogue. in the early 1990s, i remember governor carlo azeglio ciampi ’ s reluctance to accept my proposal to create a statistical division within the research department on the grounds that the bank ’ s economists were those who knew best which statistics were needed, and therefore were also best suited, as potential users, to being involved in their production. a good example of the need for dialogue between data producers and economic analysts is credit rationing. in order to estimate the extent to which households have no access to credit, we require a complex set of interrelated questions, first asking respondents whether they had thought about applying for a loan, then whether they actually made the application, and finally whether they got it. credit - rationed borrow