, growth, employment and inflation would have been considerably lower. more specifically, the estimated average annual contribution of the unconventional measures to euro area inflation is between 0. 3 and 0. 5 percentage points ( see chart 14 ). the estimated level of real gdp at the end of 2019 without the package of unconventional measures is between 2. 5 and 3. 0 percentage points lower than the observed level, and employment is estimated to be about 2. 5 million lower in the absence of the measures. chart 14 no - measures counterfactual ( percentage points ) source : ecb calculations. note : the boxplot depicts a range of assessments, comprising the eurosystem staff assessment based on a suite of models and the assessment documented in rostagno, m. et al., op. cit. by contrast, the role of fiscal policy in supporting the euro area economy has been limited ( see charts 1517 ). while the current mildly expansionary fiscal stance is providing some support, the more fiscal policy contributes to boosting long - term growth potential and providing cyclical stabilisation, the quicker will be the effects of monetary policy interventions on inflation and the economy. in this regard, it is worth keeping in mind that the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy is particularly strong in an environment in which inflationary pressures are muted and the expected interest rate path is not very steep. chart 15 euro area fiscal stance and change in the output gap ( percentage points ) source : ameco database ( european commission spring forecast ). note : the fiscal stance is approximated by a change in the ratio to gdp of the cyclically adjusted government balance. chart 16 contributions to euro area real gdp growth ( annual gdp growth in percentages ; contributions in percentage points ) source : ecb staff calculations based on eurostat data. notes : real gdp growth and demand components in 2019 are from december 2019 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. chart 17 government balances ( percentages of gdp ) sources : december 2019 broad macroeconomic projections for the euro area, imf world economic outlook october 2019 for other countries, and ecb staff calculations. notes : the projection for japan is adjusted to include the recently announced fiscal stimulus. it assumes an overall stimulus of jpy 13 trillion, distributed evenly over calendar years 2020 and 2021 with a positive effect on gdp growth of 0. 3 percentage points in both years. for china, the estimated “ augmented ” fiscal numbers, which include estimated offbudget spending and debt

framework that could be applicable in all major financial markets. we will welcome comments on this proposal when, as i expect, the federal reserve issues a notice of proposed rulemaking to implement it domestically, probably by using the federal reserve ’ s authority under the securities exchange act of 1934 to supplement our prudential regulatory authorities. but it is also important to continue analysis of other macroprudential policy options that would address the risks associated with short - term wholesale funding. indeed, even the fsb proposal does not extend to sfts backed by government collateral, a very important source of short - term wholesale funds. asset management activities have commanded considerable attention lately, both internationally at the fsb and domestically at the financial stability oversight council ( fsoc ). the asset management industry has grown rapidly since the financial crisis, both in terms of the dollar amount of assets under management and in the concentration of assets managed by the largest firms. these trends may well continue as stricter prudential regulation makes investment in certain forms of assets more costly for banks. to the extent that asset management vehicles hold relatively less liquid assets but provide investors the right to redeem their interests on short notice, there is a risk that in periods of stress, investor redemptions could exhaust available liquidity. under some circumstances, a fund might respond by rapidly selling assets, with resulting contagion effects on other holders of similar assets and, to the degree they had not already been subject to redemption pressures, other asset management vehicles holding those assets. the use of leverage by investment funds, including through derivatives transactions, could create interconnectedness risks between funds and key market intermediaries and amplify the risk of such firesales. considerable work is needed, first, to develop better data on assets under management, liquidity, and leverage, in order to fill the information gaps that have concerned so many academics and policy analysts. then there is more work to be done in assessing the magnitude of liquidity and redemption risks, including the degree to which those risks vary with the type of assets and fund structure. and finally, we will need tools that will be efficient and effective responses to the risks identified. both the short - term wholesale funding and asset management examples point to the broader objective for macroprudential policy of developing what we might term “ prudential market regulation ” – that is, a policy framework that builds on the traditional investor protection and market functioning aims of securities regulation by incorporating a system - wide perspective. like