of the service sector. so, to continue with the news analogy, here ’ s the lede : i expect gross domestic product, or gdp, to increase around 5 ½ to 6 percent this year. my current forecast accounts for strong growth in the first half of 2021, but also balances some slowing of growth in the remainder of the year relative to the first half. now i ’ ll turn to employment, something i know many of you as business leaders watch closely. job gains by and large have been strong in recent months. on average, 750, 000 jobs were added per month over the three months through august, and the unemployment rate now stands at 5. 2 percent. at the same time, we ’ re seeing indications that the labor market recovery is being impaired by the recent covid surge. job gains slowed noticeably in august, with the weakening concentrated in sectors most sensitive to the pandemic, including leisure and hospitality. health concerns, early retirements, and childcare challenges continue to weigh on labor supply. 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches anecdotally, a lack of immigration and work visas is affecting labor supply as well. another storyline that ’ s taken hold is the cycle of hires and quits in the labor market. clearly, demand for workers is very high — we see this in an elevated number of job postings and hires. at the same time, people are leaving their jobs in large numbers, either to look for new work or exit the labor force altogether. these conditions reflect the extraordinary nature of the pandemic, and also illustrate that we still have a long way to go until we achieve the federal reserve ’ s maximum employment goal. in fact, there are over five million fewer jobs today than before the pandemic, and the unemployment rate is still far above levels reached early last year. when tracking progress toward maximum employment, it ’ s important to take two points into consideration. first, even if job postings are at a record high, job postings are not jobs. these vacancies won ’ t be filled instantly — it takes time for employers to find the right workers. and second, a full recovery means a recovery in employment, not just lower unemployment. employment dynamics are driven by both the unemployment cycle and the labor force participation cycle. because employed workers are more likely to remain attached to the labor force, these cycles are interrelated, as lower unemployment raises participation by reducing labor force exits. this relationship also means

like investments that fall due, income is generally reinvested. therefore, foreign exchange reserves tend to rise even when we do not need to purchase additional foreign exchange. the other component of returns is changes in the value of foreign exchange reserves. we value all investments at market prices and in swiss francs. consequently, changes in the prices of interest - bearing paper and shares as well as exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the net result for investment. if the swiss franc strengthens against the investment currencies, this results in a valuation loss on the foreign exchange reserves. the chart shows the net investment result since the first quarter of 2010 for the foreign exchange reserves, as well as for the individual components. the dominant role of exchange rate movements is clearly evident. in the past, too, exchange rate movements have posed by far the greatest risk to our portfolio. taking a long - term view, exchange rates have been responsible for about 80 % of the total risk on the foreign currency reserves. reform of interest rate benchmarks following last year ’ s revelations that libor interest rates had been manipulated, various activities to reform the libor and other interest rate benchmarks are under way. the snb is involved in these reform activities at both international and national level. the objective is to improve the credibility and acceptance of the existing interest rate benchmarks or, where appropriate, to take steps to ensure the provision of robust alternative interest rate benchmarks. international efforts are being coordinated by the financial stability board on behalf of the g20 countries. they involve not only central banks and supervisory authorities but also an international group of private sector financial market participants. they are examining, first, the extent to which the existing libor interest rates fulfil the requirements laid down by securities supervisors last july ( the iosco standards ). second, they are investigating whether there are alternative interest rate benchmarks which would better meet the needs of the market and the requirements of supervisory authorities in the longer term. alternatives to the libor are being developed by the private sector group, which also includes swiss representatives. the financial stability board plans to present the results of its work in the middle of next year. at the international level, activities are also under way to regulate the interest rate benchmarks as well as other important reference variables on the financial markets. in bis central bankers ’ speeches london, the libor is already now subject to a supervisory regime. in brussels, a bill has been proposed which would regulate all interest rate bench