hit places along the regional shoreline. against this, reconstruction began soon after the storm was over and has likely intensified since then. the repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed infrastructure, homes, and businesses is likely to continue for some time. programs will need to be well designed in order to achieve maximum beneficial impact. for instance, on the housing front, it will be important to ensure that program design and funding recognize that our region has a wide variety of housing types – including multifamily and public housing – that are in need of repair post - sandy. in other words, one - size - fits - all solutions may not work well here. past studies suggest that reconstruction spending provides a powerful stimulus to local economies, both in its direct effects and its associated multiplier effects. thus, i expect that reconstruction will provide a similar sizeable boost to our regional economic activity, and one that is likely to continue well into 2013. all this analysis must be viewed as early and provisional. putting all the factors together, at present i expect that economic activity in our region was adversely affected in october and november, but will show a noticeable rebound starting in december. in addition to the economic costs in terms of lost activity there are, of course, the costs in terms of human suffering to the millions of people who were adversely affected – above all those who lost homes and loved ones, but also the many others who were cold and without power for days on end, spent hours getting to and from work, waited on long gas lines, and experienced the stress of not knowing what lies ahead. we are also tracking the impact of sandy on schools and students. in new jersey, 60 percent of schools were closed more than one and a half weeks. the storm shut down all new york city schools for a full week, and many schools across the region remained closed the following week. hardships borne by students and families are also reflected in record low post - storm attendance rates. the new york city department of education moved quickly to relocate schools from damaged buildings to temporary premises, enabling children to resume their studies. but even two weeks after the storm, schools that had to be relocated had attendance rates below 70 percent, a huge drop from their regular rates of over 90 percent. research shows that lost school days and relocations can significantly impair student learning. the good news is that the situation is getting closer to normal every day. today, only 9 out of a total of 1, 750 new york city

. s. economy, or the entrepreneurialism and inventiveness of our people. nor do they doubt that we have the resources and capability to overcome the challenges we face. but they do wonder whether our political system is capable of putting the national interest above partisan interests and making the tough choices needed to address these challenges. if a credible bipartisan agreement is reached, it will strengthen global confidence in the u. s. and underscore to the world that our country remains a great place to do business and invest in. failure would suggest a degree of political dysfunction that could undermine u. s. economic leadership and could encourage global corporations and investors to invest elsewhere. make no mistake : credible fiscal consolidation will not be painless, no matter what form it takes. the burden will be felt across many sectors of the economy and we must expect that the resulting fiscal drag will exert some restraint on economic growth. nevertheless, there is no reason why a carefully crafted plan would need to put the economic recovery at risk. a credible plan, after all, would likely have very positive effects on confidence. in particular, i believe that business investment would respond positively to a credible plan. more generally, reducing uncertainty over future tax rates, entitlements and other spending programs has to be a positive development in terms of reducing uncertainty that can constrain economic activity. by clarifying the rules of the road, a credible fiscal plan is likely to reduce the incentive of households and businesses to delay spending and investment. this would likely offset fiscal drag to a meaningful degree. bis central bankers ’ speeches conclusion to sum up, while it is still too early for a precise estimate of the economic impact of sandy, i expect a negative impact on fourth quarter national and regional economic growth, but a minimal long run effect nationally and regionally. this has happened during a period where too many people remain without the jobs that they need to help support their families and themselves. although the economy continues to expand, we must grow faster if we are to put all of our jobless workers and idle businesses back to work. meanwhile, price increases are likely to be at or slightly below our 2 percent longer - run objective over the next few years. many parts of our region were showing a stronger pace of growth than the country as a whole before the storms hit – and i am hopeful that sandy will not have pushed us off this trajectory for long. the recovery of housing markets are important part of this renewed growth, although certain