a level playing field, stimulating interest in hong kong among islamic countries, encouraging product development, and raising market awareness within hong kong, particularly through the educational work of the treasury markets association. all of this work looks both to the past and to the future for inspiration. looking to the past, we have the still - recent experience of the asian financial crisis, one element of which was the undeveloped state of some of our financial markets, in particular the debt market. many of the market - development initiatives on which we have been working have been intended to address these deficiencies. more recently, the current financial crisis serves as a reminder that some aspects of market development may be taken too far, where, for example, they privilege the process of intermediation and neglect the financial and economic realities that lie behind it. the caution inculcated by the asian financial crisis, and a natural conservatism in many markets in this region, seem to have helped us avoid the worst excesses we have seen in more developed markets. looking more positively to the future, this region is poised to become the centre of economic growth and wealth creation in the world. indeed we are already a long way down that path. so far, a great deal of the wealth created has been diverted into markets elsewhere in the world. market development in this region, on a foundation of efficient infrastructure and sound regulation, will help retain more of that wealth for investment within the region. this evening ‘ s gala event celebrates the 40th anniversary of one of the world ’ s foremost financial publications. it is therefore only proper to say something about the vital role of the media in financial market development. the media can, i think, be seen as a kind of complementary, parallel infrastructure to the financial infrastructure that i have briefly described. the media are, of course, more visible, and much more diverse, but they also make use of similar technologies, whether advanced or traditional, and at various points they intersect with the financial infrastructure. modern markets are, in fact, dependent on the media, whether in their provision of real - time information second by second, or in the more reflective analysis of market trends, or in the exposure of scandals and malpractices. it is no coincidence that hong kong is both a financial centre and a world media centre. at least seventeen international news agencies, 29 international or regional newspapers, and another 29 magazines have a presence in hong kong, and all of them have some interest in financial affairs. we have

spending on services has been strong, following its covid slump. spending on many services is now back in line with the pre - pandemic trend, although spending on international travel is one exception. these divergent patterns are also evident in the bank ’ s liaison, with some firms reporting that demand is still strong, while others are reporting a noticeable softening. it is also worth noting that business surveys continue to report that trading conditions are above average. graph 10 household consumption per capita december 2019 = 100 index goods index services trend ( 2014 – 2018 ) sources : abs ; rba looking forward, we expect a period of subdued consumption growth, especially in per capita terms. this slower growth will help establish a better balance between supply and demand in the economy and support the return of inflation to target. there is a range of offsetting factors bearing on this outlook. on the positive side, households ’ wage and salary income increased by more than 10 per cent over the past year, people have been finding jobs, and a large stock of additional savings was accumulated over the pandemic period. on the other side, though, interest payments are increasing quickly at a time when inflation is also high ; based on the interest rate increases that have already occurred ( including yesterday ’ s ), total required mortgage payments are expected to reach 9½ per cent of household disposable income later this year, which will be around a record high ( graph 11 ). housing prices have also been declining, although it is difficult to determine the effect of this on spending as there had earlier been a large run up in prices. and the pool of additional savings is spread unevenly across the community. given this wide range of factors influencing consumption, the board will be closely monitoring the spending data at each of its monthly meetings. graph 11 housing mortgage payments quarterly ; share of household disposable income % scheduled payments % projections historical estimate interest scheduled principal extra payments sources : abs ; apra ; rba turning now to the labour market, the recent data suggest that conditions remain tight, although the rapid pace of hiring in some sectors last year has slowed. the number of job vacancies is still very high and many firms in the bank ’ s liaison program are reporting that they are planning to increase headcount further ( graph 12 ). notwithstanding this, in january employment declined by 11, 500 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3. 7 per cent. our interpretation is that this decline in employment largely reflects changing