to live in the future rather than in the present : not that they fail to work while it is called for to - day, but they see the country not merely as it is, but as it will be, twenty, fifty, a hundred years hence. ” 1 i ’ m reasonably confident that mr. robinson would view this as an awkward segue, but his quote is also instructive to the operations of monetary policy. the federal open market committee – the fomc – meets eight times per year to set the path of monetary policy over the next six to seven weeks. all 12 presidents of the various regional federal reserve banks – including me – and the seven governors of the federal reserve board, including chairman bernanke, contribute to these deliberations. ( actually, right now, there are only five governors – two positions are unfilled. ) however, the committee itself consists only of the governors, the president of the federal reserve bank of new york and a rotating group of four other presidents ( currently minneapolis, philadelphia, dallas and chicago ). see robinson ( 1966 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches as i said, the committee meets eight times per year. its deliberations concern the appropriate readjustment of monetary policy to the new information received since the last meeting. but, as was true of the early settlers of our great continent, the committee has to keep in mind its medium - term and indeed long - term goals when making those readjustments. and it must also keep in mind the public ’ s understanding of those goals. this perspective – that good policy responds to the current conditions so as to achieve certain well - communicated future goals – will be a key theme for the remainder of my remarks. they will be divided into three parts. the first part is about the fomc ’ s objectives and my thoughts regarding them. in the second part, i discuss the fomc ’ s performance relative to those goals in the past three and a half years since the beginning of the great recession. finally, i close with an analysis of recent fomc decision - making. here, my discussion is perhaps a little more disengaged than usual, since i dissented from – that is, formally disagreed with – the last fomc decision. and here it seems especially a propos to remind you that my remarks here today reflect my thoughts alone, and not necessarily those of others in the federal reserve system, including my colleagues on the federal

mr. sherwin reviews economic prospects and challenges for asia and the pacific region address by the deputy governor of the reserve bank of new zealand, mr. murray sherwin, to the new zealand institute of international affairs in wellington on 15 / 10 / 98. i was asked to discuss the economic prospects for asia and the pacific. i ’ m going to take a fairly liberal interpretation of the topic. you will not be surprised that my comments are framed within a high degree of uncertainty about the direction of the global economy. events of the past year or more have been dominated by a growing sense of contagion spreading from the initial thai problems, and now affecting most parts of the world. even over the last couple of months, we have seen russia and latin america faltering, and a substantial re - rating of corporate profit prospects in the usa and europe. as we look forward to 1999 and 2000, we can do no better than guess at when these downward influences will run their course, and when robust, sustainable, recovery will commence within the asian region. however, i will offer a few guesses on asia ’ s prospects. i will also offer some observations on the nature of the adjustments and transitions now being worked through in asia, especially within the financial sectors of the affected countries. the asian growth story the asian growth story, over three decades or more, has been extraordinary, with sustained annual expansions of the order of 7 to 10 percent. that is more than just a statistical nicety. not only has asian economic success supported growth in the rest of the world, it has been the driving force in the most profound process of poverty alleviation in human history. by world bank estimates, where 60 percent of east asians lived in absolute poverty ( i. e. less than us $ 1 per day ) in 1975, 20 percent were living in absolute poverty in 1995. the numbers living in poverty have declined, the severity of poverty has declined, life expectancy has climbed, infant mortality rates and literacy indicators have all improved in tandem with economic growth. growth created jobs for the poor, and provided opportunities to expand their productivity. the asian miracle was real and tangible. of course, paul krugman made himself famous, and unpopular in some parts, by arguing that while asia had generated extraordinary growth over an extended period, there was no magic formula that the rest of us could borrow in order to imitate that growth performance. to use krugman ’ s now - famous line