ball ( 2014 ), “ long - term damage from the great recession in oecd countries, ” nber working paper series 20185 ( cambridge, mass. : national bureau of economic research, may ) ; and robert e. hall ( 2014 ), “ quantifying the lasting harm to the u. s. economy from the financial crisis, ” nber working paper series 20183 ( cambridge, mass. : national bureau of economic research, may ). see robert f. martin, teyanna munyan, and beth anne wilson ( 2014 ), “ potential output and recessions : are we fooling ourselves? ” ifdp notes ( washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, november 12 ) ; carmen m. reinhart and kenneth s. rogoff ( 2009 ), this time is different : eight centuries of financial folly ( princeton : princeton university press ) ; valerie cerra and sweta chaman saxena ( 2008 ), “ growth dynamics : the myth of economic recovery, ” american economic review, vol. 98 ( march ), pp. 439 - 57 ; and davide furceri and annabelle mourougane ( 2009 ), “ the effect of financial crises on potential output : new empirical evidence from oecd countries, ” oecd economics department working papers 699 ( paris : organisation for economic co - operation and development, may ). for a different view, see bis central bankers ’ speeches figure 1 shows such an effect for the u. s., u. k., euro - area and canadian economies since 2008. the underlying pattern is an interesting one. economists and policymakers have tended at first to view a decline in output as a cyclical shock to demand and to realize only gradually over time that a crisis has done substantial and lasting damage to the productive capacity of the economy. 5 as a result, estimates of the gap between actual and potential output often narrow over time, partly through higher actual output but also through lower estimates of potential. for example, figure 2 shows that the congressional budget office has made a series of downward revisions to its estimates of potential output in recent years. 6 this supply - side damage has typically appeared both in the labor market and in the capital stock. 7 long spells of unemployment cause skills to atrophy and make it more difficult for workers to find new jobs, raising the natural rate of unemployment for those who do remain in the labor force and causing others to throw in

philip n jefferson : communicating about monetary policy speech by mr philip n jefferson, vice chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at " central bank communications : theory and practice ", a conference hosted by the federal reserve bank of cleveland, cleveland, ohio, 13 may 2024. * * * introduction thank you, ed, for the kind introduction and for the opportunity to speak. 1 you and the organizers of this conference have put together an excellent program on a very important topic, central bank communication, which is key for effective transmission of monetary policy to the economy. to fulfill our dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and price stability, it is vital that we make good monetary policy decisions and that we communicate those decisions to the public effectively. today, i'll do three things. first, i'll discuss the channels that the federal reserve currently relies on in its communications with the public. second, i'll offer a few historical examples of how economic thinking on monetary policy communication has evolved over time. along the way, i'll highlight how president mester has contributed to this evolution. and, finally, i'll share some thoughts on the communication challenges that policymakers face. current federal reserve communication channels currently, fed policymakers communicate often. the fed publishes a statement after every federal open market committee ( fomc ) meeting, fomc minutes three weeks following each meeting, a summary of economic projections ( sep ) four times a year, and monetary policy, financial stability, and supervision and regulation reports twice a year. the chair holds a press conference after every fomc meeting and testifies in front of congress on the monetary policy report twice a year. other written communications from the board and the 12 federal reserve banks, as well as policymakers'speeches, interviews, and other appearances, help inform the public about the fed's goals and its strategies to achieve those goals. communication isn't only about talking, it's about listening also. listening is reflected in our activities. in addition to listening to the steady beat of economic data, the board and the reserve banks conduct numerous surveys of financial market participants, businesses, and families. some of what we hear is summarized in the beige book published eight times a year. and the fed has many forms of community outreach, including fed listens events where fed policymakers go into local communities to hear directly from people living and working there. alternatively, sometimes representatives from communities come to us. for example,