slide 10. treasury yield spread ( 10 year to 2 year ) • slide 11. payroll revisions • slide 12. consumer price index inflation revisions much of what i have shared today comes from an economic outlook speech i gave a few weeks back. if you would like to read the full remarks, you can look for those on the board ’ s website. 2 i hope you do. but even more so, i hope these slides today have helped show that you and your students don ’ t have to wait for a speech from a fed policymaker to get an update on the u. s. economy. you can use fred to access and analyze the data yourselves. i hope that reviewing these data series has been as fun for you as it has been for me or that at least i ’ ve sparked some ideas for how you can use this tool in the classroom. thank you. see christopher j. waller ( 2023 ), “ something ’ s got to give, ” speech delivered at the distinguished speaker seminar, european economics and financial center, london, united kingdom, october 18, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / waller20231018a. htm. using economic data to understand the economy christopher j. waller member board of governors of the federal reserve system beyond the numbers at the federal reserve bank of st. louis november 7, 2023 the views expressed here are my own and do not reflect those of the board of governors or the federal open market committee. 1. real gross domestic product note : dashed line of 2. 1 percent is the average growth rate of real gdp between 2000 : q1 and 2019 : q4. the shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research ( nber ) : march 2001 – november 2001, december 2007 – june 2009, and february 2020 – april 2020. source : federal reserve bank of st. louis ( 2023 ), “ real gross domestic product and average real gross domestic, product, ” fred economic data ( accessed october 27, 2023 ), https : / / fred. stlouisfed. org / graph /? g = 1b1m6 ; u. s. bureau of economic analysis. 2. contributions to real gdp 2022 - present source : federal reserve bank of st. louis ( 2023 ), “ contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product : personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of

goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment, ” fred economic data ( accessed october 27, 2023 ), https : / / fred. stlouisfed. org / graph /? g = 1aj0j ; federal reserve bank of st. louis ( 2023 ), “ real gross domestic product, ” fred economic data ( accessed october 27, 2023 ), https : / / fred. stlouisfed. org / graph /? g = 1aj0r ; u. s. bureau of economic analysis. 3. change in payroll employment 2021 - present note : dashed line of 183, 000 is the average change in payroll employment between january 2010 and december 2019. source : federal reserve bank of st. louis ( 2023 ), “ all employees, total nonfarm and average all employees, total nonfarm from january 2010 to december 2019, ” fred economic data ( accessed november 1, 2023 ), https : / / fred. stlouisfed. org / graph /? g = 1b1n3 ; u. s. bureau of labor statistics. 4. vacancy - to - unemployment ratio note : the shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research ( nber ) : march 2001 – november 2001, december 2007 – june 2009, and february 2020 – april 2020. source : federal reserve bank of st. louis ( 2023 ), “ job openings : total nonfarm / unemployment level, ” fred economic data ( accessed october 27, 2023 ), https : / / fred. stlouisfed. org / graph /? g = 18bay ; u. s. bureau of labor statistics. 5. labor force participation rate note : the shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research ( nber ) : march 2001 – november 2001, december 2007 – june 2009, and february 2020 – april 2020. source : federal reserve bank of st. louis ( 2023 ), “ labor force participation rate, ” fred economic data ( accessed october 27, 2023 ), https : / / fred. stlouisfed. org / graph /? g = 1aj8i ; u. s. bureau of labor statistics. 6. personal consumption expenditures inflation note : dashed black line is the federal open market committee ’ s longer - run inflation objective of 2 percent. the shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the national