. programming would make us creators of the technology rather than simply users. unfortunately, programming is attracting few graduates, despite the potential it offers for job creation, business development and economic wealth. the example of india is one we might wish to draw on. our students have the intelligence ; what is needed is the training, the exposure and the will. in closing, let me express my appreciation to all those who have played a part in transforming the bank ’ s environs, namely the frank collymore hall and the grande salle, into an it learning setting and especially to janice marshall who approached me with the idea, and to her staff who were intimately involved in the hosting of this fair. to the students who will be the focus of this fair over the next three days, i encourage you to be as open and as inquisitive as you wish to be as you move from booth to booth. i hope, too, that you see this event as a veritable investment in our future - yours, the bank ’ s and the country ’ s. i would especially like to thank novaline brewster for looking after the logistics of this event. i thank you all for being here today.

what are the risks that oil prices will stay around their current level for a time – and maybe go even higher? it ’ s hard to say – but the market is not discounting the possibility of even higher oil prices. options prices point to an increase in near - term uncertainty – and an increasing concern about further large price rises. using us consumer expenditure deflator to adjust for inflation. there are risks on the downside too : the last time the world economy slowed significantly, oil prices slumped. could a slowdown in the world economy cause oil prices to collapse again? projections for the growth in oil demand over 2007 and 2008 have been revised downwards a little recently. but much may depend on the pattern of any slowdown – and in particular whether china continues to expand strongly even as the us economy slows. what ’ s the likely impact of higher oil prices on the uk economy? twenty or thirty years ago, sharp increases in energy prices coincided with much higher inflation and much lower growth. over the last four years, our experience has been very different : inflation has been better behaved, and growth much steadier. there are several reasons for that, including major changes to the energy intensity and flexibility of the uk economy. but one important difference has been monetary policy. unlike in the 1970s, the mpc ’ s focus has very clearly been on controlling inflation. today, higher energy prices are an important influence on interest rate decisions. that is because they have an immediate impact on inflation, which has the potential to fuel inflationary expectations. and they may also affect the balance between overall demand and supply, though it is hard to judge the timing and size of this effect. soaring oil prices were an important reason why some members of the mpc, including myself, were reluctant to cut interest rates when the economy slowed in 2005. the policy dilemma today, in 2007, global developments – in financial and oil markets – are posing downside risks to output as well as upside risks to inflation. that ’ s a very difficult combination. so how well placed is the uk economy to weather these headwinds? as far as output goes, we start from a strong position. the latest official figures show annual growth still above its average rate, as it has been for more than a year, reflecting robust domestic spending by households and businesses as well as a buoyant world economy. but in the last month, the businesses surveys have started to weaken – a few quite sharply. and retail spending may