additionally, there is the possibility of the global production chain disruptions being compounded, particularly amid the sanctions imposed on russia. a third channel is through the negative effects on uncertainty and confidence. a fourth channel is the financial implications, insofar as escalating inflationary pressures result in a tightening of the monetary policy stance. based on the analysis of these channels, the direct effects of the war on spanish foreign trade are expected to be moderate, as its bilateral trade flows with russia are relatively limited. nevertheless, the indirect effects may be significant. spain ’ s share of energy products imported from russia is admittedly relatively small ( 6 % of the total in 2019 ) and lower than that of countries such as germany and italy ( 17 % and 22 %, respectively ). however, its high dependence on external energy sources and the impact of the war on energy prices on the international markets have already triggered a major negative shock to our international purchasing power. given the crucial role of these commodities in production processes and the limited capacity in the short term to substitute these energy inputs from russia, a hypothetical interruption of the supply of energy products from russia to europe would have a significant impact on activity and inflation in the euro area. that impact would be more pronounced in the economies that are more dependent on russian gas, with the consequent indirect effects on the spanish economy. the war has also adversely affected uncertainty, as shown by the fact that the decline in household confidence in march, after the conflict broke out, was the largest in the time series. consequently, a delay in the gradual recovery that was under way in the spanish economy should be expected. thus, the banco de espana ’ s latest macroeconomic projections described a scenario of weaker momentum in activity and greater inflationary pressure than in the previous december 2021 projections. specifically, the projections envisage that gdp will grow by 4. 5 % in 2022, 2. 9 % in 2023 and 2. 5 % in 2024. in the area of prices, the april projections pointed to an average rate of change of 7. 5 % in the hicp in 2022. inflation is expected to then drop sharply to 2 % and 1. 6 % in 2023 and 2024, respectively. it should be stressed that this sharp slowdown is based on two assumptions. the first is that there will be a slowdown in the growth of energy prices, in line with those on the futures markets. the second is that a moderate wage growth

of gdp by 2050. likewise, the repealed sustainability factor will be replaced by the new “ intergenerational equity mechanism ” which, by means of a specific - purpose increase in social security contributions, envisages bolstering the social security reserve fund and adopting new measures as from 2032, depending on developments in pension spending relative to gdp. the specifics of these new measures will need to be negotiated in due course. according to government estimates, there would be an initial increase in social security contributions of 0. 2 % of gdp between 2023 and 2032, which could generate accumulated income amounting to 2. 3 % of gdp in the reserve fund by 2032, which includes the possible increase in value of the stock over time. moreover, it has been established that the under the baseline scenarios of the national statistics institute, the airef and eurostat, this ratio ( defined as the ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged 16 to 64 ) will rise from 30 % at present to between 57 % and 61 % in 2050. for more details, see p. hernandez de cos ( 2021 ), “ the spanish pension system : an update in the wake of the pandemic ”, occasional paper no 2106, banco de espana. intergenerational equity mechanism adjustment may not exceed 0. 8 pp of gdp per year, including any potential new measures. therefore, based on the estimated impact of the measures adopted in the first phase of the reform, additional measures will be required to balance the system in the long term. the second part of the pension system reform envisages a series of steps to be spelt out over the course of 2022. prominent among the measures that have been announced or that are pending approval or final design include occupational pension schemes, a review of maximum social security contribution bases and maximum pensions, a new contribution system for self - employed workers, and a review of the reference period for calculating the regulatory base. in recent years, the banco de espana has, in various documents and reports, set out certain principles that should govern the pension reform. first, once the level of benefits the system should provide has been established at the political level, it is crucial that the strategy be rounded off by setting revenue levels and other system parameters ( e. g. the retirement age ) to ensure the system ’ s funding. as part of this strategy, it would also be desirable to strengthen the link between contributions made and benefits