emphasise that both fiscal and monetary policies play a countercyclical role, that is, they address the issue of overcoming the downturn and bringing the economy back to its potential. this is certainly a top - priority task in the current situation, yet it is critical to remember what is absolutely essential for sustainable long - term development and an increase in economic potential, labour productivity and, accordingly, households ’ incomes. to tackle this task, we need incentives to increase private investments and develop private initiatives and should enhance the flexibility of the labour market, which primarily depends on the business climate and other structural factors. the level of our economic potential after the pandemic and how quickly the economy will regain it are crucial for both our macroeconomic forecast and monetary policy. as you know, this uncertainty of supply - and demand - side factors is a key point in our forecast scenarios. they are presented in the draft monetary policy guidelines for 2021 – 2023 published last week. we are going to update our forecast estimates following the board of directors ’ meeting scheduled for october. yet, our approaches to the set of scenarios and key forecast assumptions in the scenarios will remain unchanged. winding up, i would like to make my traditional comments on monetary policy prospects. the main path of the monetary policy easing has already been passed — since june 2019, the key rate has decreased by 350 basis points, including by 200 basis points this year, to reach its record low. we still see some room for reducing the key rate, but we will consider the necessity to use this room and the time when this should be done. as shown in the monetary policy guidelines, both under the baseline and alternative scenarios, the bank of russia will be capable to tackle the task of maintaining price stability, that is, keeping inflation at our target close to 4 %. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

). you are aware that lending continued this year, unlike in prior times of crisis. more so, we have seen record growth in mortgage lending, which is the point the speaker has made. for all these welcome developments, our central focus should remain with the real target, which is to make housing more available to people, and not to stage a kind of race for records. our housing market has indeed a lot of growth potential : it is true that mortgage lending has yet to become as common as it is in many other countries. however, we should bear in mind, first, that mortgage debt has been taking years to accumulate there and, second and most important, the accumulation of this debt should tally with a rise in household incomes. hence the need to prevent the emergence of a bubble in this market and the real risks this bubble would carry, in order of priority, for people, developers and banks. this sector needs a long - term development 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches plan based on market principles. i cannot agree more with the speaker on this subject : the government ’ s concessional lending programme indeed helped stave off market failure at times of crises. at this point in time however, we are seeing that demand for mortgage loans is in a way increasingly translating into a stampede, leading to unjustified price growth in several regions. ultimately, developers and banks stand to take advantage of this programme, rather than consumers. it would do no harm to support them ; however, our key objective is the availability of housing. we should focus increasingly on targeted support programmes, which includes the efforts to support the overall supply and demand balance. let me explain : there are more and more consumers willing to make use of low rates and take out mortgage loans. they could service the debt, but they have no money for the down payment. it is common knowledge that a mortgage loan with a low down payment is risky, which means that people might lose their homes. the banking system would in turn have to deal with more underperforming loans, ultimately leading to a rise in interest rates for all. that is why it is in our interest to stem growth in this lending segment, in line with global practices. therefore, we are discouraging banks from issuing such loans. also, a housing savings project is in the works and will hopefully gain support. this is when savings for housing become a down payment. they would be kept in a special account, with the terms of a future mortgage