friends and family. if you are fortunate enough to find a job that is a good match for your skills and ambition, you still have to ask yourself : will housing be affordable? will the commute be a nightmare? will my partner be able to find meaningful employment too? i ’ ll bet a few people in this room have had prize candidates slip away once they realized that they could not afford greater toronto area housing prices, or were not keen to spend hours commuting to work every day if they lived further out. as the expansion continues, history tells us that job churn will pick up as employment continues to grow. this should lead to more employers finding it necessary, and worth their while, to offer higher wages. job churn is technically the sum of all workers who change jobs from an existing job, enter the workforce by obtaining a job, leave their job ( voluntarily or not ) or quit the labour force altogether ( e. g., through retirement or becoming a discouraged worker ). aside from the lingering effects of the oil price shock, the aging workforce may also be contributing to slow job churn. older workers tend to value stability more than younger workers do. see o. kostyshyna and c. luu, “ the state of labour market churn in canada, ” bank of canada staff analytical note no. 2019 - 4 ( january 2019 ). interestingly, labour mobility has increased significantly in the last 20 years. bank staff have found that the mean absolute difference in employment rates between provinces has converged to be the same as the difference between us states. see d. amirault and n. rai, “ canadian labour market dispersion : mind the ( shrinking ) gap, ” bank of canada staff analytical note no. 2016 - 3 ( march 2016 ). what structural factors could weigh on wage growth going forward? all that said, some forces that have been weighing on wage growth are structural, and therefore are likely to persist. in fact, these forces are not unique to canada ; they are being felt in many advanced economies. 13 how innovation is playing out in the global economy is at the centre. technological advances have lowered demand for many types of routine jobs, both cognitive and manual, in all advanced economies, including canada. these losses have been more than offset by jobs in other sectors that are experiencing stronger employment and wage growth. high - tech workers are the most obvious example. at the same time, more and more workers have to compete for

of our 6 september interest rate announcement, the risks around the basecase projection are judged to be a little greater than at the time of the july update. the main upside risk relates to the momentum in household spending and housing prices, while the main downside risk is that the u. s. economy could slow more sharply than expected, leading to lower canadian exports. the bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced. on 17 october, we left our key policy rate unchanged at 4. 25 per cent. the current level is judged, at this time, to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term. we at the bank will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of risks, as well as to economic and financial developments in the canadian and global economies.