the ecb ’ s accommodative monetary policy, it is important to bear in mind the relative stability of the dollar - euro rate since spring 2015. 4 taking into account these empirical patterns, how should we think about the interactions between external spillovers and the ecb ’ s monetary policy? in the inward direction, the euro area is affected by macro - financial conditions in the rest of the world through trade, exchange rate and financial channels. the relative prices of tradable goods ( especially commodities and other non - differentiated goods ) are determined by global supply and demand conditions. most obviously, the analysis of the global factors driving the persistent and large - scale fluctuations in oil prices has been a priority for all central banks in recent years. in addition, global excess capacity may have constrained pricing for various manufacturing sectors in recent years. in addition to their influence on the terms of trade, external demand conditions also may boost domestic output levels, especially in situations in which domestic expenditure levels are weak. for the euro area, an expansion in net exports clearly played an important role in sustaining output during 2010 – 2013 and again in 2015. furthermore, it is plausible that the depreciation in the external value of the euro between mid2011 and mid - 2012 and again between mid - 2014 and mid - 2015 contributed to the expansion in net exports, while the appreciation phases from mid - 2010 to mid - 2011 and mid - 2012 to mid - 2014 6 / 10 bis central bankers'speeches represented headwinds to recovery in the euro area. 5 with the exception of currency reversal during the euro crisis phase of mid - 2011 to mid - 2012, the euro persistently appreciated against the dollar from mid - 2010 to mid - 2014. during this period, the federal reserve implemented several phases of quantitative easing. in turn, the sharp depreciation of the euro against the dollar from mid - 2014 to mid - 2015 correlates with the adoption by the ecb of an accommodative monetary strategy, including asset purchase programmes, a negative deposit rate, forward guidance and targeted long - term refinancing operations. at this broad level, it seems clear that differences in the phasing and scope of monetary strategies account for some proportion of the medium - term swings in the exchange rate over this period. while figure 2 showed that bilateral trade vis - a - vis the us is relatively limited, the importance of the euro - dollar rate for exporters and importers in the euro area

be a key area of focus for the central bank this year. i 4 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches look forward to hearing karel ’ s contribution on this critically important topic. for my part, i will be interested in recovery and resolution and the insurance guarantee schemes. two areas that are not included in the scope of the call for advice but could be considered by eiopa in the call for advice are i ) when an insurance firm holds a large reinsurance asset that is not collateralised, the firm is exposed to significant credit risk which may not be fully reflected in the capital charge and ii ) the ability for national supervisory authorities to apply a capital add on where there are prudential concerns. thank you for your attention this morning. i will now pass you to our first keynote speaker of the morning, the chairperson of eiopa, gabriel bernardino. i am delighted to be introducing him at our conference. gabriel will address “ challenges and opportunities for the insurance sector : the european perspective ”. 1 with thanks to brian balmforth, jenny minogue, attracta jennings, jade crofton, chris joyce and tim o ’ hanrahan for their assistance in preparing these remarks. 2 central bank of ireland strategic plan 2019 – 2021 ( 2019 ). 3 the probability risk and impact system ( prism ) is the central bank ’ s risk - based framework for the supervision of regulated firms. it supports our challenging firms, judging the risks they pose to the economy and the consumer and mitigating those risks we judge to be unacceptable. 4 personal injuries commission : second and final report of the personal injuries commission ( july 2018 ) 5 central bank of ireland : behaviour and culture of the irish retail banks 6 central bank of ireland : enforcement action 7 royal commission into misconduct in the banking, superannuation and financial services industry : final report 8 group of 30 : banking conduct and culture - a permanent mindset change 9 lane, philip r. : the brexit discontinuity ( 2019 ) ; sibley, ed : safety and soundness – strategic priorities for the next three years 10 lane, philip r. : economic letter – climate change and the irish financial system ( vol. 2019 no. 1 ) 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches