overnight financing rate ), which is the global benchmark short rate in us dollars, is assumed to be between 3. 5 percent and 4. 5 percent. finally, we assume our exports will grow by 6 percent and our imports by 5 percent as global demand recovers and as international trade normalizes. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches let me end by saying that the bsp will continue to support policies that promote price stability, financial stability, and an efficient payments and settlement system, which we think are essential for sustainable and inclusive growth. thank you very much. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

inflation projections. the chart on the left shows the bsp's forecasts on inflation over the coming months. the darkest part in the middle of the blue graph indicates that we expect average inflation to fall within our target range of 2 percent to 4 percent in 2024 and 2025. the balance of risks to this latest inflation outlook has shifted to the downside, and this is due largely to the implementation of rice tariff reduction. we still face some upside risks for inflation. these risks will come from higher domestic prices of food items other than rice from transport charges and from electricity rates. on the right side, we show the trend in inflation expectations based on our survey of external forecasters. the green line shows how inflation expectations for 2024 have evolved. the blue and red lines are expectations about future inflation rates in 2025 and 2026. the surveys show inflation expectations are well anchored, implying that we have to worry less about second - round effects of supply shocks. evolving inflation conditions show that the bsp can hold its policy settings steady for the time being. if price pressures continue to ease, it will be possible for the bsp to consider a less restrictive monetary policy stance. nonetheless, lingering supply concerns and geopolitical risks warrant continued and close monitoring of risks to the inflation outlook. the national government's policies and programs play an important part in helping ease inflation pressures. shown here are some of the short - term government initiatives to improve food supply that are expected to help. one is tariff modification and importation measures, a prominent example of which is eo 62. there is also the strong push to enhance productivity through the provision of high - quality seeds, farm and fishery gear and equipment, and other policies that address supply issues. banks remain healthy along with price stability, the bsp assigns high priority to financial stability. i am pleased to report that our banks are in good shape. their balance sheets are strong, their operations are profitable, and they are very liquid. the graph shows that our banks remain well - capitalized and highly liquid. the chart on the left, the brown bar, refers to international standards for capital adequacy. the dark purple bar refers to the banks'actual capital adequacy. as you can see, the actual capital that banks hold exceeds - very significantly - [ the ] international standards for capital. the chart on the right shows the liquidity coverage of our banks. 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches the brown