s forecast that next year ukraine will receive more than usd 38 billion in international assistance remains relevant. this financing will enable the nbu to maintain an adequate level of international reserves to ensure the sustainability of the fx market. the course of the war continues to be the key risk to inflation dynamics and economic development the war continues and poses the risk of a further reduction in economic potential, in particular due to the loss of people, territories, and production facilities. the speed of the economy's return to normal functioning conditions will depend on the nature and duration of the war. the main risks remain the same : the emergence of additional budget needs, mainly those to maintain defense capabilities the likelihood of an additional hike in taxes, which – depending on its parameters – might drive up pressures on prices further damage to infrastructure, especially energy and port infrastructure, which will restrain economic activity and put supply - side pressures on prices a deepening of adverse migration trends and a further widening of labor shortages on the domestic labor market. at the same time, positive scenarios could also materialize, resulting, among other things, from the continued acceleration of european integration processes and recovery in the energy sector. in order to maintain fx market sustainability, prevent expectations from becoming unanchored, and to gradually bring inflation back to its target, the nbu board decided to raise the key policy rate from 13. 0 %, to 13. 5 % the nbu sees a need to tighten its interest rate policy to reverse the inflation trend and bring back inflation to its 5 % target on the policy horizon. a higher key policy rate will help keep inflation expectations under control and support real yields on hryvnia instruments. this will fuel interest in hryvnia term deposits, and thus help reduce pressures on the exchange rate and prices, as temporary inflation drivers wear off. safeguarding the sustainability of the fx market will remain an important factor in bringing inflation back onto a downward trajectory. given the sufficient amount of international assistance, the nbu's ability to compensate for the structural currency deficit in the private sector and smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations will remain strong. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches the nbu will take further decisions to tighten its interest rate policy at upcoming meetings of the board on monetary policy issues if there are persistent signs of unrelenting inflationary pressures and the threat that inflation expectations might become unanchored. thank you for your attention! 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

, there are a couple of points where i do not agree entirely with the authors ’ conclusions. one such point is how the riksbank should act if inflation has been below, or above, target for a long period of time. professors giavazzi and mishkin suggest that if inflation has been below target for a long period of time, monetary policy should partly compensate for this by being extra expansionary in the future. as i understand it, the background to this is the developments in recent years, when inflation has been below the target. here it is worth pointing out that when inflation has been below target level for a long period of time, there have been good explanations for this. the most recent episode has mainly been due to the fact that productivity growth has been surprisingly high. as was observed in the evaluation, this was something that most forecasters missed. the authors put forward two arguments in favour of monetary policy compensating for persistent deviations from the inflation target. the first is based on the assumption that deviations from target may be a sign that the analysis and forecasting models used by the riksbank tend to over - estimate inflation. of course, we are constantly working on ways of improving our assessments and trying to learn from forecasting errors we have made. if our analysis and forecasting models do not function satisfactorily, we must attempt to correct the deficiencies. in my opinion, this would be a more natural measure than compensating for forecasting errors by means of an extra expansionary policy. the second argument is based on the idea that it might be beneficial to express the target in terms of a path for price levels instead of in the form of a target for the inflation rate. the difference from an inflation target, which may be considered rather subtle, is that if the inflation target is not met, it is regarded as a “ bygone ” under the current strategy. this is to say, if inflation is for instance below the target for a long period of time, one does not need to compensate for this by then allowing inflation to be above the target for a period of time. instead, one looks ahead and aims to bring inflation back in line with the target of 2 per cent. if one instead has a target path for the price level, if prices are below the path this must be counteracted by more rapid inflation during a period of time to enable a return to the path prices were following before the deviation