continue its moderate recovery trend and the effects of the decline in demand following the consumption tax hike are expected to wane gradually. the year - on - year rate of change in the consumer price index, excluding volatile food and the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, is expected to be around 1¼ percent for some time. it is expected to subsequently follow an uptrend again from the second half of this fiscal year and reach about 2 percent around the middle of the current projection period from fiscal 2014 to 2016. quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, dubbed qqe, has so far been producing its intended effects. the bank will continue with qqe, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. if the outlook changes due to the manifestation of risk factors and it is judged necessary for achieving the price stability target, the bank will make adjustments without hesitation. i have high hopes that foreign financial institutions will continue to play the significant role they have played in japan ’ s economy in the past 30 years and will contribute to the robust growth of japan ’ s economy in the future. with such hopes, let me conclude my speech today. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

chart 1 may 2023 inflation projection and its outcome ( y - o - y rates, in % ) ( in pp ) 16. 2 - 1 - 2 13. 7 - 3 - 4 10. 2 - 5 7. 6 - 6 5. 0 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 2 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 unprocessed food processed food energy industrial products excluding food and energy services - 12 june sept. dec. jan. feb. mar. sources : sors and nbs calculation. * y - o - y inflation peaked in march. source : nbs. also, in the majority of neighbouring countries, just as in the euro area and the usa, since the start of the year core inflation has trended at a higher level than headline, therefore a priority of central banks ’ monetary policies will be to ensure that core inflation continues on the downward path. a more detailed overview of core inflation trends in serbia and the neighbouring countries is available in one of the text boxes in our may report. chart 3 headline and core inflation movements from 2021 to 2024 ( y - o - y rates, in % ) headline inflation core inflation source : eurostat. according to our latest projection, inflation will return within the bounds of the target tolerance band of 3±1. 5 % most likely in may, which is somewhat earlier than what we expected in the february projection. this is also indicated by our nowcasting model through which we obtain and process around 30, 000 prices of products and services from around 130 internet sites in real time, and within which we develop techniques that rely on artificial intelligence. so far, this model has been rather reliable in assessing current inflation, and we will continue to develop it in the coming period. 2 of 10 chart 4 inflation projection chart 5 current inflation and one - year ahead inflation expectations ( y - o - y rates, in % ) ( y - o - y rates, in % ) current inflation financial sector * corporate sector * financial sector - bloomberg ( y - 2 3 6 3 6 source : nbs. 3 6 3 6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 sources : gallup, ipsos / ninamedia, bloomberg and nbs. * ipsos and gallup until december 2014, ninamedia since december 2014, and ipsos since january 2018. in the remainder of the year, we expect inflation to slow further and move around the 3 %