action where necessary. boundaries in nance are being redrawn, as new players disrupt markets, or disappear altogether. in payments, for example, we have seen that new rms can often have different business models, can initially target market subsegments, and are often better equipped to utilise data and attract younger clients. we also see a trend to more frictionless payments, with some incumbents struggling to keep pace with technological change. these changes create opportunities but also pose challenges and risks. to deal with these in the decade ahead will require awareness, understanding and agility on the part of consumers, industry and central banks. it ’ s a constant learning process, for everyone. moving from the nancial system to the wider economy, there is considerable uncertainty around the scale and pace of any decline in uk trade now that it has left the single market. the central bank has modelled an eu / uk free trade agreement scenario with the results showing that irish output would be around 3. 5 per cent lower by 2028 than if the uk had remained an eu member. and if wto rules applied, output would be 5 per cent lower. 13 in the long term, what matters is productivity growth. as paul krugman has said, “ productivity isn't everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything. a country ’ s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker. ” 14 the world is experiencing a global productivity slowdown. and as the oecd and the imf have indicated, understanding productivity in the irish economy is important if we want to assess the longer run prospects for ireland ’ s future prosperity. 15 16 productivity, along with the rise of non - bank nance, technological innovation and the future economic relationship with the uk are just a few of the challenges we will face over the next decade. and i haven ’ t even mentioned climate change. so how should we meet these challenges? it ’ s about continuing to focus on the fundamentals, about managing the short term while planning for the medium term, ensuring our frameworks are t - for - purpose and learning the lessons of the past while preparing for the future. it ’ s also about being prepared to challenge ourselves. 17 economic transitions have been a feature of society throughout history. building economic resilience is the most effective way to help societies manage them. 18 there is no one - off solution to the challenge

about the review later this year. macroprudential frameworks the macroprudential framework, which as many of you know, has been transformed over the past decade. our polices have focused on strengthening the resilience of both banks and borrowers. they include borrower - based measures, the other systemically important institutions ( o - sii ) buffer and the counter cyclical capital buffer ( ccyb ). we are also looking to introduce a systemic risk buffer ( syrb ). i announced last december a review into domestic property funds. given the growth in this form of nancial intermediation in recent years, and its importance for the domestic commercial real estate market, you would expect us to be looking closely at the resilience of this form of nance. you would expect us to be reaching a judgement on how well placed this segment of the funds sector is to absorb – rather than amplify – any potential adverse shocks in the future. and that is exactly what we are doing. beyond domestic property funds, i support my ecb colleague, vice - president de guindos, in his call for the development of a broader macroprudential framework for the non - bank sector to ensure it can sustain nancing of the real economy under different economic conditions and mitigate pro - cyclical risk - taking, excessive leverage, liquidity, and maturity transformation. 21 a way of looking at the central bank ’ s role is through both horizontal and vertical dimensions. horizontally, one of the central bank ’ s key strengths is its comprehensive mandate. this includes regulating the funds, insurance, and banking sectors. but also our wide macroprudential, conduct and consumer protection responsibilities. being both the securities markets regulator and the macroprudential authority means we have a comparative advantage in terms of our assessment of risks in the non - bank sector. using the interconnected nature of our mandate to tackle the interconnected nature of the nancial system is a key area of focus for me. it is fundamental to the delivery of our mission to safeguard monetary and nancial stability and ensure that the nancial system operates in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy. european frameworks the vertical dimension of our role includes our integration into the frameworks of european nancial supervision. being part of the eurosystem and the single supervisory mechanism ( ssm ), the european system for financial supervision, and wider international fora means we should be relatively more effective in