nominal terms, within the latest available projections of the imf. also, the trajectory of the public debt is downward, public investments are higher than the value of the budget deficit and the draft envisages contingencies for withstanding adverse volatilities in the exchange rate and interest rates. also, a table of medium - term projections for public finances is attached to the draft budget. the table suggests fiscal consolidation will continue in the medium term horizon. from this perspective, the bank of albania finds that the deficit of social security schemes, health insurance schemes and other social securities is at around 4. 6 % of the gdp or 2. 6 times higher than the overall budget deficit. analysed in greater detail, the deficit of the social security scheme, also known as the pension scheme, is expected to be at around 1. 5 % of the gdp, within the projections made in the reform of this system, and set on a downward trend. on the other hand, the deficit of the other schemes is more stable. beyond the counter - cyclicality of various elements in these schemes, the bank of albania judges that spaces should be considered for further reducing their structural deficit. the draft budget 2019 introduces a novelty in terms of explicitly assessing the potential risks to the realisation of the budget. the bank of albania welcomes this novelty and encourages that it become an integral part of annual and medium - term budget plans. with regard to these risk scenarios, the bank of albania has the following comments : first, the assessment of the impact from potential negative shocks, on the economy and public finance, should be accompanied by the identification of measures that need to be taken in order to cut expenditures and comply with the budget deficit value. second, the assessment of the risk arising from public - private partnership programmes, the so - called ppps, suggests that deviations from the requirements of the law for annual ppp payments to the level of 5 % of tax revenues of the previous year will be covered through the increase in revenues. the bank of albania judges that, beyond this regulatory mechanism for the purpose of complying with the legal ceiling, the potential increase in the budget deficit should be avoided by reducing budget expenditures. moreover, this reduction should target – to the maximum possible extent – budget sectors that generate such deviations. the sanctioning of this principle serves to maintain budget balances, maintain balances in the inter - sectorial allocation of funds and discipline the contracting of such programmes. the bank of

in the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate. this is the natural next step in executing our strategy to achieve our dual mandate goals. looking ahead, with inflation moving toward the target and the economy in balance, the stance of monetary policy can be moved to a more a neutral setting over time depending on the evolution of the data, the outlook, and the risks to achieving our objectives. in terms of the fed's balance sheet, the committee began to slow the pace of decline of our securities holdings in june. that process is going smoothly and as planned, and the level of reserves remains well above ample. the economic outlook before i close, i'll share my forecast for the other " e, " the economy. i expect gdp growth this year to be around 2 to 2 - 1 / 2 percent. i expect the unemployment rate at the end of this year to be around 4 - 1 / 4 percent, and thereafter to move gradually down to my estimate of its longer - run level of 3 - 3 / 4 percent. with the labor market in balance, i expect the process of disinflation to continue. specifically, i expect overall pce inflation to moderate to around 2 - 1 / 4 percent this year and to be near 2 percent next year. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches that's my base case. but it's important to emphasize that the outlook remains uncertain, and i am attentive to signs of a shift in economic conditions. three areas are particularly in focus. one is the possibility of a significant further weakening in the u. s. labor market. the second is a sharp slowdown in global growth that could spill over onto our shores. and third, the experience of the past year shows that the process of disinflation is not always smooth and can surprise both to the upside and downside. conclusion we've come a long way from the unacceptably high inflation and overheated labor market that we experienced two years ago. monetary policy has been unequivocally focused on returning inflation to our 2 percent longer - run target. the risks to our two goals are now in better balance, and policy needs to adjust to reflect that balance. of course, one clear lesson of the past several years is that the future is highly uncertain. therefore, our decisions will be data - dependent, with a keen eye on the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals. 1