4. 5 per cent. assuming that there are no unexpected adverse developments, there is merit in maintaining the status quo as far as the monetary and credit policy measures are concerned, while pursuing with the reform process. hence, unless unforeseen circumstances emerge, the current measures should in the normal course remain till the next monetary and credit policy in april 2004. against this backdrop, the reserve bank expects the growth momentum to be reinforced, inflation to be contained as indicated, financial stability continued to be maintained and external sector to perform well. in conclusion, may i say that the overall developments in the economy are favourable and provide the main springs for a strong revival of investment by industry? thank you.

account of fruits, vegetables, mineral oils, fuels, and cotton textiles. two important international factors have contributed to more than the unanticipated upward pressure on prices. first, international oil prices have remained firm. the average price of opec basket had reached us $ 29. 5 a barrel at the end of 2003, while us prices are hovering around us $ 32 a barrel. the global oil prices today are thus about 10 per cent higher than they were at the time of the mid - term policy statement. the outlook for oil prices in the near term appear highly uncertain. secondly, world primary commodity prices have also increased in 2003. these trends, along with revival of growth and falling excess capacities in several advanced economies have brought about a noticeable shift in the outlook for prices. the fear of deflation in advanced economies has been replaced by a possible upward pressure, led by increases in commodity prices. no doubt, these international developments enhance the probability of international transmission of inflation. at the same time, there are three favourable factors to counter these recent adverse global developments. first, in the normal course, it is expected that the inflation rate would fall in the period mid - january to march 2004. secondly, there are cushions in terms of food stocks and ample forex reserves. thirdly, our economy has, in recent years, shown remarkable resilience in absorbing shocks including on the oil front. in view of all these factors, it is possible that the downward bias may not be attainable but it appears that the range of 4. 0 per cent to 4. 5 per cent for inflation indicated in the mid - term review continues to be relevant for policy purposes unless there are unanticipated severe shocks. it may be noticed that the policy assumption in april 2003 was 5. 0 - 5. 5 per cent and the latest assessment placing it in the range of 4. 0 - 4. 5 per cent demonstrates that, overall, inflationary situation continues to be benign for 2003 - 04. there has been a marginal improvement in central government finances since the mid - term policy statement. the gross fiscal deficit of the central government as at the time of mid - term review which was higher by 40. 3 per cent ( based on fiscal data available up to september 2003 ) is now higher by 12. 3 per cent ( based on fiscal data available up to november 2003 ) over the corresponding periods of last year. similar improvement is also seen on the revenue account, which was higher by 37