sounder footing for future cross - border activities – on the one hand setting strict expectations, but on the other hand also providing greater transparency and certainty. i am confident that we can expand upon our strong partnership in this new environment. thank you for your attention. i wish you a fruitful and successful symposium. 1 i. e. a period during which the uk is no longer part of the eu but will remain within the single market and the customs union ; this 21 - month phase, which starts on 30 march 2019, creates time : time for policymakers to develop the rules of a new partnership ; and time for businesses to adapt to the new reality strategically and thoughtfully – rather than hastily. 2 the options still on the table are a “ no deal ” scenario and one with quite limited freedoms for financial services, as set out in ceta ( the comprehensive economic and trade agreement between canada and the eu ). these scenarios would mean two things for financial transactions between the uk and the eu. first, the “ no deal ” scenario would mean that the eu and uk would trade under rules set by the world trade organization – where coverage of services sectors is thin at best. services providers would then have to apply for comprehensive licenses in both jurisdictions and have all the necessary elements of a fully functioning bank ready in both places. and second, even a ceta - like deal would most likely not mean far - ranging freedoms to provide financial services in the respective foreign jurisdiction – and thus force services providers to apply for comprehensive licenses in both jurisdictions. 3 this could be achieved either through a general revision of the eu ’ s equivalence procedure and its scope, or by agreeing a bilateral arrangement with the united kingdom. 4 the european securities and markets authority ( esma ) is most likely to become responsible for emir - related decisions of equivalence. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches

cent of items in the consumer price index ( cpi ) were recording price rises of more than 3 per cent per annum. so, the problem has been a broad - based one. this is why the board is focused on bringing inflation down. the board understands that the rise in interest rates has put additional pressure on the households that have mortgages. but the alternative of lower interest rates and high inflation for a prolonged 1 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches period would be even worse for these households, as well as all the households without mortgages. it would also make it more likely that inflation expectations would adjust upwards. and if this were to happen, it would be much more costly to address, involving high inflation for longer and even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment to bring it down. recent developments in inflation are encouraging. since peaking at 7. 8 per cent in the december quarter of 2022, inflation declined to 4. 1 percent at the end of 2023. nevertheless, inflation is still too high. as you know, since the early 1990s the board has had a target for annual consumer price inflation of between 2 and 3 per cent on average over time. the new statement on the conduct of monetary policy endorses this but makes it more explicit that we should be aiming for the middle of the range – 2. 5 per cent. so, we have some way to go to meet our target. i should add here that we are not unique in experiencing a period of above - target inflation. inflation has been a challenge in most economies around the world – particularly those with which we typically compare ourselves. at least initially, this was a result of global supply chain issues coupled with strong demand for goods and rising energy prices. this saw inflation around the world rise to rates not experienced for many years, if not decades. as these influences have subsided, global inflation has eased and there has been encouraging progress towards central banks'targets. but services sector inflation remains high in many countries, partly reflecting demand remaining above supply and the associated tightness in labour markets. on tuesday, we released our updated forecasts for the economy and inflation. these forecasts have inflation returning to within the top of the target range – 3 per cent – in 2025 and to reach the midpoint of the target range in 2026. importantly, these forecasts are conditioned on the assumption that inflation expectations remain anchored around the midpoint of the target range. furthermore, these are our central forecasts and