nils bernstein : denmark ’ s economy against the background of the financial sector crisis speech by mr nils bernstein, governor of the national bank of denmark, at the annual meeting of the danish bankers association, copenhagen, 8 december 2008. * * * thank you for inviting me to speak today. i will try to look forward. first i would like to talk about the economy. for the first time since world war ii, there are widespread concerns that the industrialised world will see a fall in output next year. large parts of the global economy are in – or heading for – a recession. naturally, denmark is not unaffected by this situation, as we export one third of all our output. moreover, consumers are tightening their purse strings. widespread talk about a crisis, tough times and falling housing prices affect the propensity to buy. it is a bit of a paradox. on the one hand it may seem sensible for us as individual consumers to show restraint and save a little " for a rainy day ", but on the other hand this sensible behaviour may be negative for the economy overall. pessimism can be self - fulfilling if we all look on the dark side. there is no reason to do so. actually, next year most households will see a sizeable increase in their real disposable incomes due to sustained high wage increases and lower taxes. at the same time, inflation is expected to be lower. we expect zero growth and rising unemployment next year, but nevertheless, it is important to remember that denmark goes into recession from a situation with low unemployment, extensive labour shortages and relatively high wage increases. many comparable countries are in a very different situation. in the usa and many euro area member states, the economy is reversing at a time when unemployment is considerably higher. this difference is essential in terms of the economic - policy approach chosen. the fact that denmark has not launched packages of fiscal stimulants, as many other countries have, reflects responsible economic policy – not the opposite. when will the tide turn again? when will we see renewed progress? most forecasters believe that the global economy will turn sometime during 2009. in denmark's case we may have to wait until 2010. but let me emphasise that such estimates are subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. so far, there are no indications that the current real economic development in denmark can be labelled a " crisis " – provided that we act sensibly. let us save the word " crisis " for a time

jens thomsen : brief overview of the danish economy statement by mr jens thomsen, member of the board of governors of the national bank of denmark, at the meeting of the danish economic council, copenhagen, 5 december 2006. * * * developments in 2006 reflect extraordinarily high demand in the danish economy. the growth in demand will continue in 2007, but it is forecast that gdp growth will fall to approximately 2 per cent, leaving the rest of demand to be covered by net imports. this indicates that the danish economy is close to its capacity limit. higher wage increases are also expected. if the growth in demand for danish goods exceeds productivity growth, the pressure on the labour market will increase, unless the supply of labour is expanded. this labour requirement can hardly be met domestically, and it is difficult to judge how far sufficient resources can be provided from abroad. it is stated in line with danmarks nationalbank that even if the economy has become more flexible there is still a considerable risk of overheating. such overheating will, as stated, lead to significantly higher wage increases, and thereby an extended period of low growth. on this basis danmarks nationalbank has recommended that demand be curtailed. the economic council also recommends a tightening of fiscal policy.