increase to 1. 7 % in 2017, up from 0. 7 % in 2016, mainly on account of higher oil prices and in line with the rebound in world economic activity. † imf, world economic outlook, january 2017. figure 2. real gdp growth ( year - on - year ) in major economies the most astonishing fact about the world economy is that it has grown every single year since the early 1950s. it has very rarely grown by less than 3 % since the early 1950s and only four times by less than 2 % - in 1975, 1981, 1982 and 2009. the first three were the result of oil price shocks, triggered by wars in the middle east and federal reserve disinflation. the latter was caused by the great recession after 2008 ’ s global financial crisis. the following slides summarise the imf ’ s january predictions for this year about the major blocks of the world economy. let ’ s start with the us. the us outlook output growth is projected to rise to 2. 3 % in 2017 and 2. 5 % in 2018. both business and consumer confidence are at their 15 - year peak, suggesting that the us economy is buoyant at the end of the obama administration. in addition, after the latest fomc meeting, the fed ’ s expectations for cpi inflation in 2017 are at 1. 8 % - 1. 9 %, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 1. 7 % - 1. 8 %. the eurozone outlook focusing on the economic developments in the euro area, the economic sentiment indicator for the euro area rose to 107. 8 in december 2016, reaching the highest since june of 2011, while consumer confidence remains at negative territory of - 5. 10, but in the highest level the last 20 months. as far as inflation data concerned, according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, annual hicp inflation had continued to rise in december 2016, to 1. 1 %, after 0. 6 % in november, while core inflation ( flash estimate ) increased to 0. 9 % in december, up from 0. 8 % in november. inflation expectations, as measured by the five - year inflation - linked swap rate, edged up to 1. 77 % at the beginning of december, close to the values recorded at the beginning of this year, slightly higher than prior to the start of the pspp last year. moreover, the december 2016 eurosystem staff projections foresee the euro area hicp inflation at 0

arrangements. fortunately, it left no systemic impact in other market segments. but, we may not be so lucky next time and, therefore, i would exhort all banks to look at the need to have an effective bcm as more than a mere technology issue, although technology may be the most important component in the arrangements. i had earlier mentioned about the need for taking care of a few cs. i shall add one more c to this. this pertains to clarity. there are many challenges ( yet another c which can be overcome ) in respect of appropriateness of the it model for each bank. more often than not, it provides solutions for business and not the other way around. with the stabilisation of cbs, it is now the optimal time for business to commence their process of demanding from it. and once the clarity of requirements is established, the choice ( one more c ) of the correct ( c again! ) it solution would be smooth. to this end, we need to re - orient our efforts so that it systems are our slaves and not vice - versa. finally, in banking, it is imperative to create income efficiencies, technology - driven efficiencies and service efficiencies to reduce cost structures. as technology matures and improves, so will the skills, processes, and bottom lines. and once the banks get it right, they will get much more for far less. i wish the workshop all success. bis central bankers ’ speeches