##ably in all our interests to make a sound diagnosis of the health of our banking system. now let ’ s take a closer look at the survey. the check - up covers three areas. first, it analyses profitability on the basis of business figures – here, we look not only at the institutions ’ planning and forecasts up until 2021, but also at how the annual results would change under the assumption of different interest rate levels in the future. we supplemented these quantitative analyses with qualitative questions, whereby the banks and savings banks gave a uniform assessment of the future of their institution and the banking sector. the second area is stress testing. in this context, we analysed what would happen to the capital base of the institutions if they had to cope with particular external stress events. for the first time, in addition to the classic stress factors of interest rate, market and credit risk, we also stress tested residential real estate. residential real estate also formed part of the third area of analysis, in which we examined other 1 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches key risks. besides risks in the residential real estate sector, we performed a detailed analysis of lending standards and the position of building and loan associations. our examination centres on the question of how the low - interest - rate environment is affecting the resilience of banks and savings banks. in order to grasp the effects of possible future interest rate levels on credit institutions, we calculated how the profitability of the institutions would change if the interest rate level were to move in one direction or the other. what were the underlying scenarios we used? for the first area, the analysis of profitability, we first asked the institutions to provide their threeyears plans using a uniform template and requested forecasts for a further two years. in addition to this, we examined supervisory interest rate scenarios : a sustained low - interest - rate environment, a positive interest rate shock of 200 basis points, a negative interest rate shock of 100 basis points, and a turn in the yield curve of + 200 basis points at the short end and – 60 basis points at the long end, each at the beginning of this year. the institutions ’ balance sheets could be altered for some scenarios, and not for others. for the stress test, the impact of a positive interest rate shock of 200 basis points was compared with that of a continued low - interest - rate environment. the scenario also assumes a 200 basis point increase in the probability of default and a 20 % increase in the

andreas dombret : results of the low - interest - rate survey conducted by the bundesbank and bafin opening statement by dr andreas dombret, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the press conference presenting the results of the low - interest - rate survey conducted by the bundesbank and bafin, frankfurt am main, 30 august 2017. * * * 1. introduction ladies and gentlemen are you familiar with the german smartphone app “ app zum arzt ”? it advises the user on which medical check - ups they should have. i can only recommend it to everyone, given that prevention is clearly the best cure. despite all the fintech mania, however, we banking supervisors have not yet morphed into app developers – though for us, too, prevention is a high priority. and it was precautionary motives that led us to once again conduct the low - interest - rate survey. in this third instance, after our surveys in 2013 and 2015, we want to establish exactly how healthy the german banks and savings banks are at this moment in time, and how susceptible they are to future ailments. that is why we gave the small and medium - sized credit institutions overseen by the bundesbank and bafin a comprehensive check - up ; the large institutions that are directly overseen by the ecb are excluded from this survey. over the past few months, we asked 1, 555 institutions about their profitability and resilience – in numerical terms, that ’ s 88 % of all german institutions. with aggregate total assets of around €3, 000 billion, they represent roughly 41 % of the entire german banking sector. thanks to the results of the survey, we can provide an exclusive insight into the current and future risk situation facing german banks and savings banks. the survey was based both on assumptions made by the institutions and on stress scenarios defined by the supervisors. before mr roseler and i present the results, let me begin by saying one thing. without a doubt, the low - interest - rate survey consumed a great deal of time and money. i would therefore like to take this opportunity to thank the participating banks and savings banks as well as their associations and it service providers. you all deserve a huge thank you, because without your cooperation, a survey like this would not be possible. but i am certain that the insights to be gained from this check - up justify the effort – after all, it is unquestion