, the ecb is regularly reproached in the media for a lack of transparency. the european parliament, for example, recently called on the ecb, in announcing a decision on interests rates, to make public the minutes of the relevant meeting and the distribution of votes. i am not certain whether this information would actually enhance transparency. minutes can also lead to misunderstandings, because the weight given to different arguments is not always clear. besides, there is a danger that member states would check out the consequences for their own country of their central bank president ’ s stance. that is not the intention, since all members of the ecb council decide for the euro area as a whole. integral publication of the minutes could also change the nature of the discussions. nonetheless, we take the criticism seriously and regularly explore possibilities for improving communication, one result being a clarification of our monetary approach in may of this year. communication not only influences policy, but also the policymakers. central bankers are continuously subject to media attention. they can hence explain decisions and strengthen the confidence of market parties. but they also need to watch their step, because statements are sometimes interpreted like those of the delphi oracle. in other words, people hear what they want to hear. it is completely understandable that journalists enjoy analysing the decision - making in the ecb council. but as a central banker, you must always be aware of how far these interpretations can go. the press likes to divide the members of the ecb council into hawks and doves. and i once mentioned in an interview that structural reforms would lead to lower inflation, theoretically giving scope for interest - rate reductions. the next day ’ s headline in the financieele dagblad was : “ wellink : interest - rate reduction in return for structural reforms ”. that is obviously not what i meant, but it shows that a slight remark can sometimes have major consequences. nederlandsche bank ’ s relationship with the media this brings me to the relationship between dnb and the media. the traditional image of central banks as ivory towers is outdated. the bank has regular contacts with the media, and the days when it only communicated through publications such as annual and quarterly reports are long gone. over the past year, members of the bank ’ s governing board gave more than 50 speeches, and as many as 150 interviews and television appearances. in addition, during the introduction of the euro, a documentary maker from the dutch broadcasting company vpro

shocks to which others are responding are similar to those with which the mpc must contend. to my mind, there are some important differences in this regard : first, cost pressures are stronger in the us. american unit costs have increased by 3 % in the past year and are growing above historical averages, while unit costs in the uk are currently rising by around half that rate or at a speed notably below that consistent with the inflation target. 4 second, the uk economy is twice as open as the us and is therefore more exposed to global weakness, dragging on exports. 5 third, this also means that pass - through of weak global inflation, compounded by exchange rate appreciation, is likely to exert a greater and more persistent drag on uk inflation. partly as a result, after adjusting for one - off factors, core inflation is firmer in the us than the uk. fourth, the stance of fiscal policy differs markedly. the uk is undergoing the largest fiscal consolidation in the oecd, with the structural deficit projected to decline by around 1 percentage point a year on average over the next four years, having fallen only 1 / 3 percentage point on average over the past three. in contrast, us fiscal policy is expected to loosen notably over next three years. finally, the bank of england ’ s control over macroprudential policy reduces the need to use monetary policy to address financial stability considerations. recall that, despite an expansion that started two years before our own, the fed has only raised rates to our lofty level of ½ %. this last point is not facetious. as my mpc colleague jan vlieghe argued in a speech yesterday, a variety of structural factors have likely depressed the so called equilibrium interest rate, or the rate consistent with the economy operating at full employment and inflation at target. 6 bank staff have estimated many of these drivers. in my long - held view, rate rises, when they come, are likely to proceed at a gradual pace and to a limited degree for some time. most economics is at the margin, and the tightening of monetary policy – once warranted – is likely to be marginal for some time. given all of that, what are the prospects for a rate rise in the uk? last summer i said that the decision as to when to start raising bank rate would likely come into sharper relief around the turn of this year. well the year has turned, and, in my view, the decision proved straightforward : now is not yet the