our new purchase programmes for abss and covered bonds. it will be released at 3. 30 p. m. let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. following four quarters of moderate expansion, euro area real gdp remained unchanged between the first and second quarter of this year. survey data available up to september confirm the weakening in the euro area ’ s growth momentum, while remaining consistent with a modest economic expansion in the second half of the year. looking ahead to 2015, the outlook for a moderate recovery in the euro area remains in place, but the main factors and assumptions shaping this assessment need to be monitored closely. domestic demand should be supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing improvements in financial conditions, the progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and lower energy prices supporting real disposable income. furthermore, demand for exports should benefit from the global recovery. at the same time, the recovery is likely to continue to be dampened by high unemployment, sizeable unutilised capacity, continued negative bank bis central bankers ’ speeches loan growth to the private sector, and the necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors. the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside. in particular, the recent weakening in the euro area ’ s growth momentum, alongside heightened geopolitical risks, could dampen confidence and, in particular, private investment. in addition, insufficient progress in structural reforms in euro area countries constitutes a key downward risk to the economic outlook. according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation was 0. 3 % in september 2014, after 0. 4 % in august. compared with the previous month, this reflects a stronger decline in energy prices and somewhat lower price increases in most other components of the hicp. on the basis of current information, annual hicp inflation is expected to remain at low levels over the coming months, before increasing gradually during 2015 and 2016. the governing council will continue to closely monitor the risks to the outlook for price developments over the medium term. in this context, we will focus in particular on the possible repercussions of dampened growth dynamics, geopolitical developments, exchange rate developments and the pass - through of our monetary policy measures. turning to the monetary analysis, data for august 2014 continue to point to subdued underlying growth in broad money ( m3 ), with the annual growth rate increasing moderately to 2. 0 % in august

. unlike cutting fat, which permanently elevates the levels of productivity, these gains in output per hour are often temporary, as more demanding workloads eventually begin to tax workers and impede efficiency. but the impressive performance of productivity also appears to support the view that the step - up in the pace of structural productivity growth that occurred in the latter part of the 1990s has not, as yet, faltered. indeed, the high growth of productivity during the past year merely extends recent experience. over the past seven years, output per hour has been growing at an annual rate of more than 2 - 1 / 2 percent, on average, compared with a rate of roughly 1 - 1 / 2 percent during the preceding two decades. although we cannot know with certainty until the books are closed, the growth of productivity since 1995 appears to be among the largest in decades. arguably, the pickup in productivity growth since 1995 reflects largely the ongoing incorporation of innovations in computing and communications technologies into the capital stock and business practices. indeed, the transition to the higher permanent level of productivity associated with these innovations is likely not yet completed. once the current level of risk recedes, businesses will no doubt move to exploit the profitable investment opportunities made possible by the ongoing advances in technology. however, history does raise some warning flags concerning the length of time that productivity growth remains elevated. gains in productivity remained quite rapid for years after the innovations that followed the surge in inventions a century ago. but in other episodes, the period of elevated growth of productivity was shorter. regrettably, examples are too few to generalize. hence, policymakers have no substitute for continued close surveillance of the evolution of productivity during this current period of significant innovation. in summary, as we noted last week, “ the [ federal open market ] committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still - robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. however, incoming economic data have tended to confirm that greater uncertainty, in part attributable to heightened geopolitical risks, is currently inhibiting spending, production, and employment. inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained. ” in these circumstances, the committee believed that the actions taken last week to ease monetary policy should prove helpful as the economy works its way through this current soft spot.