to the normalization of volume car sales ( figure 5 ). about this year 2019, partial activity data for the first quarter show annual variations smaller than those at the end of last year. this combines a higher basis of comparison and, especially, a poor performance of the mining sector ( figure 6 ). this worsened in february because of downtime in geographic areas affected by the intense highland winter, according to the ine ’ s manufacturing production index, which fell 9. 4 % in said month. several indicators suggest that the lower growth of early this year will be a rather limited phenomenon. about demand fundamentals regarding the determinants of demand, it is worth noting that borrowing costs continue to be favorable by historic standards and that both supply - and demand - side conditions have improved in recent quarters. in terms of expectations, signals are mixed. while consumer expectations ( ipec ) show a decline with respect to the end of the year, the business component ( imce ) shows an improvement in the same period, where worth noting is the progress in the construction sector. in the labor market, the national unemployment rate has been stable around 7 %. on the investment side, the latest survey of the capital goods corporation ( cbc ) ratified the significant increase in projects under execution that we saw at the end of 2018. it even revised upward investment plans for this and the next two years, with special emphasis on 2020, with investment in mining projects continuing to contribute the most according to the survey. inventories posted a significant increase throughout the year, where accumulated buildup went from 0. 5 % to 1. 3 % of gdp between 2017 and 2018, largely concentrated in the exporting sector and imports of machinery and equipment. chilean exports performed well during 2018, partly reflecting an increase in volume exports from all economic sectors in general. worth noting were shipments manufacturing products, which reached their highest nominal growth since 2011, supported also by the favorable evolution of the international prices of many of these products ( figure 7 ). iv. international scenario internationally, there has been a more marked slowdown in growth in the main economies. the data was particularly weak in the eurozone, with a significant adjustment of trade inside and outside the region in the fourth quarter of 2018. in china, growth went from 6. 8 % in the first quarter, to 6. 4 % in the fourth. moreover, concerns about how intense this global deceleration may become have been exacerbated. different shortterm activity indicators

our business perception report informe de percepciones de negocios. cpi inflation has been below expectations, mainly reflecting the drop in international fuel prices, which more than offset the seasonal price increases of some perishable foods and the peso depreciation. thus, in october the cpi rose 1. 5 % y - o - y, which again placed it temporarily below the tolerance range. in contrast, the core measure cpiefe brought no major surprises and continued to increase up to 1. 6 % annually in the same month. two years ahead inflation expectations remain around 3 % ( figure 3 ). in the international financial markets, movements in the last few months have been largely determined by news about the future course of monetary and fiscal policies in the united states. recall that, after the signs delivered by the federal reserve last may, the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus was expected to begin in september. this drove up long - term interest rates by more than 100 basis points in the u. s., the currencies depreciated against the dollar and volatility increased, with particularly harsh effects on emerging economies. later on, as such withdrawal did not occur in september, interest rates receded some and calm returned to the markets. although this resulted in some improvement of the external lending standards to emerging economies, our baseline scenario considers the possibility of recurrent episodes of volatility during the transition towards more normal financial conditions. for one thing, the temporary nature of the u. s. fiscal agreements could bring new tensions in early 2014, although this seems less likely. at any rate, external lending conditions are less favorable than they were early in the year. compared with september, long - term interest rates dropped as the federal reserve kept the asset purchase plan unchanged, and at the same time international stock markets improved. several emerging market currencies depreciated against the dollar – the chilean peso included – which was trading at more than $ 520 per dollar in november and has recently surpassed $ 530. the real exchange rate, as i said, has risen to near its 15 to 20 years ’ average. in terms of the outlook for global growth, developed economies are still in a process of gradual recovery. in the third quarter, the u. s. exceeded market consensus expectations bis central bankers ’ speeches and, although inventory accumulation played a part, the improved performance of the housing and labor markets, combined with better entrepreneurial and consumer expectations, the behavior of