while the global community continues to debate and explore possible solutions to manage spillovers and spillbacks of policies in advanced economies, for emerging economies, there is a need not just to preserve existing tools available to us, but to constantly refresh our policy toolkit to deal with the multifaceted risks confronting our economies and to be flexible in implementing them. pragmatism is key. policy configuration will need to be pragmatic and premised on the risk that is being managed. indeed, macroprudential policies have been found to be effective in managing financial cycles and associated risks, such as excessive credit growth and asset price inflation. nevertheless, sizeable shifts in capital flows could cause disorderly financial market conditions and excessive exchange rate movements. in pursuit of preserving stability, policymakers must therefore be able to avail ourselves to a broad range of policy toolkit. globalisation of human capital lastly, i will briefly touch on what globalisation means for the average person in today ’ s economy. being skilled alone is no longer a guarantee of employment. with offshoring of jobs, workers are now competing in a fluid workplace, against a global workforce. a job that is available locally today can be effortlessly transferred to a different country tomorrow. essentially, the increasingly dynamic nature of work underscores the importance for workers to constantly adapt, re - skill and up - skill. a global workforce also means that borders no longer limit the search for preferred jobs. in fact, globally, 258 million people, almost the size of indonesia ’ s entire population, are living in a country that is not of their origin. another aspect is the intensification of globalisation of information. technology has brought the world into the palm of our hands. last year, 3 in every 4 persons were active on a social media platform. in fact, if facebook were a country, with 1. 5 billion active users, it would be the largest country in the world today. in the span of a decade, social media has become a bona fide global marketplace, marketing tool, recruitment platform and social scene. all this points to the double - edged nature of globalisation : while it may have brought people closer together, it also introduces the challenge of promoting greater appreciation of cultural, ideological and sociopolitical diversity. conclusion globalisation, once envisioned to be a beacon of unity, has fueled increasing polarisation in recent years. let ’ s remind ourselves that in this globalised world, it is important for the contented

sethaput suthiwartnarueput : thailand - a resilient future speech by dr sethaput suthiwartnarueput, governor of the bank of thailand, at the association of international banks ( aib ) dinner talk, bangkok, 24 july 2024. * * * mr. giorgio gamba, chairman of the aib distinguished guests, it is a great pleasure to be here again. before getting to the topic'thailand – a resilient future ', we have a somewhat challenging present that we need to get through. i would like to share with you about the challenges that we are facing now and likely to face going forward and clarify some misconceptions about what is going on. part 1 : if the economy is recovering, why does not it feel like it is? let me start with the bank of thailand ( bot )'s economic outlook. we have been saying in our monetary policy committee statements that the economy is gradually recovering. recovery is there, but it is slow and very uneven. we expect the gdp growth this year of 2. 6 %, but a lot of people probably say they do not see nor feel it. why is that? i think there are a couple of reasons. first, domestic demand or consumption has been recovering quite well, but manufacturing production has seen much less recovery and remains below pre - covid level. last year, consumption grew at 7. 1 %, which is as high as we have ever seen, and is still going strong in first quarter of this year. however, most of the consumption growth is heavily concentrated in services ( about 80 % ). we also see increased competition from imports, especially from china as reflected in the increasing share of imports from china in the consumption basket. so, the increase in consumption has not necessarily translated into increases in domestic manufacturing activities. in addition, manufacturing production is facing structural headwinds – key exports drivers like petrochemicals saw exports to china drop by 30 % in the last three years due to china's greater self - reliance policy. second, while the incomes of both non - agricultural employees and self - employed workers have recovered back to pre - covid level, their recovery paths are very different. self - employed workers like merchants, taxi drivers and people working in service sectors, had a huge dip in earnings during covid, which suggested large wealth foregone. so, if you ask people whether they feel like things have recovered or things are