expect construction to continue advancing to meet the underlying expansion in housing demand from population growth and the strong economy. in addition, low interest rates will continue to be a key factor supporting growth in housing activity. as reported in the latest summary of economic projections, released in december, most fomc participants see the current target range for the federal funds rate as likely to remain appropriate this year as long as incoming information remains broadly consistent with the economic outlook i described earlier. in closing, let me say that i would also appreciate hearing what is on your minds. as a policymaker, i particularly value opportunities to travel outside of washington to hear your perspectives on the national and local economies. these conversations improve our work at the fed by helping us make better - informed decisions. 1 1. these remarks represent my own views, which do not necessarily represent those of the federal reserve board or the federal open market committee. 2 2. see, for example, aditya aladangady, laura feiveson, and andrew paciorek ( 2019 ), “ living at home ain ’ t such a drag ( on spending ) : young adults ’ spending in and out of their parents ’ home, ” feds notes ( washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, february 5 ). 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

the unemployment rate has consistently run around 1 percentage point below the national average — at last count, it was 2. 8 percent. let me now turn to the main topic of my talk today. my colleagues and i at the federal reserve pay close attention to developments in the housing sector, in part because it has historically been such an important driver of economic growth. in the national economic data, the part of gdp that includes homebuilding activity is referred to as residential fixed investment. this measure summarizes a variety of housing - related activities, including spending on the construction of new single - family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, real estate brokers ’ fees, and a few other smaller components. if we look at the growth of residential fixed investment in periods since world war ii that are defined as economic expansions, we see that this broad category has increased at an average rate of around 7 percent per year, faster than the roughly 4 percent pace of gdp growth in those same periods. and, as many of you know from experience, the opposite is true as well — that housing activity tends to experience relatively large declines in economic downturns. in particular, residential fixed investment declined an average of about 15 percent annually during periods defined as recessions, compared with an average annual rate of decline in gdp of just 2 percent in those same periods. these numbers illustrate that residential fixed investment is particularly sensitive to where we are 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches in the business cycle. the strong economy we are experiencing now has an obvious upside for the housing sector : a robust job market translates into higher incomes, greater confidence, and more people looking to buy a new home or considering whether to make a change from their current home. yet even though the financial crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble occurred more than a decade ago, all of us here are no doubt aware of the lasting imprint that those developments left on the housing market. on an annual basis, both new and existing home sales did not increase again until 2012, and they remained at modest levels for several years thereafter. given the large and persistent inventory overhang of unsold homes in the aftermath of the crisis, the construction of new homes was also sluggish for many years into the recovery. part of the weak recovery in the housing market during the first few years of this expansion can be traced to extremely tight mortgage credit conditions. despite the fact that the fed slashed interest rates and kept them low for