##ed out, the pace of recovery is likely to be moderate for the time being. chart 2 shows the june 2020 world economic outlook ( weo ) update released by the international monetary fund ( imf ). according to the baseline scenario on the left - hand side of the chart, the timing of recovery for real gdp growth rates is expected to differ across regions, depending on the timing and severity of the spread of covid - 19 as well as the magnitude of the impact public health measures have on economic activity. in china, where the spread of the disease was contained at an early stage, the real gdp growth rate fell sharply for the january - march quarter, but returned to its pre - pandemic level for the april - june quarter, as projected. the scenario for advanced economies is quite different. real gdp growth rates fell considerably - - more so than in china - - for the april - june quarter. although the rates are likely to follow a recovery trend, they are expected to return to prechart 2 world economic outlook ( imf ) baseline scenario ( forecasts for real gdp ) risk scenarios ( deviation from the baseline scenario ) q1 2019 = 100 % pts. faster - than - expected recovery starting in the second half of 2020 second major outbreak in 2021 world advanced economies emerging market and developing economies other than china china q1 q2 q3 cy 2019 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 - 2 - 4 - 6 cy 2019 note : figures in the right - hand graph are deviation rates of global real gdp from the baseline scenario. source : imf, " world economic outlook ( june 2020 ). " pandemic levels only in or after 2022. meanwhile, the real gdp growth rates of emerging and developing economies other than china have declined less sharply and recovered with greater momentum relative to advanced economies. nonetheless, their return to pre - pandemic levels is expected to lag behind china by about a year. the baseline scenario i have referred to assumes that the impact of covid - 19 will wane as early as the second half of this year. however, there is a distinct possibility that this assumption may not be realized, given that several countries have already either suffered or shown indications of a resurgence in cases. the right - hand side of chart 2 provides two different risk scenarios from the imf, in which global real gdp deviates from the baseline scenario : an upward deviation scenario that assumes a faster

- than - expected recovery starting in the second half of 2020, and a downward deviation scenario that assumes a second major outbreak of covid - 19 next year. specifically, the global real gdp is expected to deviate upward by approximately 3 percent in the first scenario and downward by about 5 percent in the second. particularly, if the second scenario materializes, the global economic depression will intensify and become prolonged ; thus, it is necessary to pay further attention to developments in the global economy and their effect on business and household sentiment as well as on global capital markets and the financial system. b. japan's economy next, i would like to turn to economic developments in japan, starting with real gdp growth rates. in chart 3, the line graph shows developments in the real gdp growth rate and the bar graph shows the contribution of each demand component to the growth rate. the first preliminary estimate of the real gdp growth rate for april - june 2020 registered negative growth for the third consecutive quarter since october - december 2019, marking minus 7. 8 percent on a quarter - on - quarter basis and minus 27. 8 percent on an annualized basis. the decline for the april - june quarter is significantly larger than that for the january - march quarter of 2009, immediately after the collapse of lehman brothers. the chart shows a significant decline in both domestic demand - - mainly private consumption - - and exports, which reflects the stagnation in economic activity at home and abroad caused by the covid - 19 pandemic. chart 3 real gdp growth rate and breakdown by demand component s. a., ann., q / q % chg. - 5 - 10 - 15 private consumption government spending imports real gdp - 20 - 25 private business fixed investment, etc. exports change in inventories, etc. - 30 cy 2013 source : cabinet office, " quarterly estimates of gdp for april - june 2020 ( first preliminary estimates ). " chart 4 shows the outlook for japan's economy. as presented in the july 2020 outlook for economic activity and prices ( outlook report ), the medians of the bank of japan policy board members'forecasts for real gdp growth rates are minus 4. 7 percent for fiscal 2020, 3. 3 percent for fiscal 2021, and 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2022. japan's economy is likely to improve gradually from the second half of 2020, but the pace is expected to be only moderate chart 4 outlook for economic activity and prices ( july 2020 outlook