these economies remains far below the levels implied by pre - crisis trends. in contrast, economic activity in the emerging market economies has not only fully made up the losses induced by the global recession, but is also rapidly approaching its pre - crisis trend. to cite some illustrative numbers, if we were to extend forward from the end of 2007 the 10 - year trends in output for the two groups of countries, we would find that the level of output in the advanced economies is currently about 8 percent below its longer - term trend, whereas economic activity in the emerging markets is only about 1 – 1 / 2 percent below the corresponding ( but much steeper ) trend line for that group of countries. indeed, for some emerging market economies, the crisis appears to have left little lasting imprint on growth. notably, since the beginning of 2005, real output has risen more than 70 percent in china and about 55 percent in india. in the united states, the recession officially ended in mid - 2009, and – as shown in figure 3 – real gdp growth was reasonably strong in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of this year. however, much of that growth appears to have stemmed from transitory factors, including inventory adjustments and fiscal stimulus. since the second quarter of this year, gdp growth has moderated to around 2 percent at an annual rate, less than the federal reserve ’ s estimates of u. s. potential growth and insufficient to meaningfully reduce unemployment. and indeed, as figure 4 shows, the u. s. unemployment rate ( the solid black line ) has stagnated for about eighteen months near 10 percent of the labor force, up from about 5 percent before the crisis ; the increase of 5 percentage points in the u. s. unemployment rate is roughly double that seen in the euro area, the united kingdom, japan, or canada. of some 8. 4 million u. s. jobs lost between the peak of the expansion and the end of 2009, only about 900, 000 have been restored thus far. of course, the jobs gap is presumably even larger if one takes into account the natural increase in the size of the working age population over the past three years. of particular concern is the substantial increase in the share of unemployed workers who have been without work for six months or more ( the dashed red line in figure 4 ). long - term unemployment not only imposes extreme hardship on jobless people and their families, but, by eroding these workers ’ skills

the industry are taking in order to manage their own exposures. the fsf takes an active interest in this area. its interest is not just to the narrow question of determining which data items to disclose but in the whole process of information disclosure. the fsf is promoting the development of high standards for accounting and auditing, the establishment of public - interest bodies to oversee the standardsetters'work, and the development and adoption of best - practice disclosure. let me elaborate a little on the fsf's interest in the transparency and disclosure practices of the reinsurance sector. after the events of september 11, 2001, and the significant downturn in global equity markets in 2001 - 02, questions arose whether reinsurance capital might erode to the point that primary insurance capacity would deteriorate. also at that time anecdotal reports of the industry's growing involvement in credit risk transfer activities, both as investors and as sellers of credit protection, led to concern that such involvement increased the risk that reinsurance difficulties could have wider implications in the financial system. the fsf found that the absence of adequate information at the time made it difficult to assess the knock - on effects of potential difficulties in the sector on primary insurance and on other areas of the financial system. as a result, the fsf encouraged and supported efforts by the iais and its working groups ( task force re and the reinsurance transparency group ) to shed light on these issues. the first and second global reinsurance market reports have since been released and have been well received by fsf members and other users of information. despite limitations arising, in part, from different accounting conventions, the reports provide analysis that enables stakeholders to gain deeper insight into the structure and profile of the reinsurance industry and its links with other sectors of the wider financial system. forum members have expressed an ongoing interest in further information on the reinsurance industry's systemic links. in this regard, i would also like to welcome the recent work by the g30 on the reinsurance sector and international financial markets. contained in the g30 report is a chapter on transparency that sets out a framework to improve the disclosure of risk information by reinsurers. with financial markets and product offerings constantly evolving, firms and the industry must release timely, comprehensive, and meaningful information to enable counterparties, investors, and regulators to do their evaluation and analysis. early and continuous dialogue about regulatory developments one area that is now receiving attention in both the private and the official communities