started to ease as it observed a lessening in inflation concerns, left rates unchanged for three meetings as it waited for more information, and then continued to ease. lessons for current monetary policy with the knowledge of past experiences in hand, let me say a few words about the current monetary policy cycle and the extent to which future policy is likely to resemble, if at all, past experiences. between march 2022 and july 2023, the fomc raised the target range for the federal funds rate 5 - 1 / 4 percentage points. our strong actions have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, and our restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back our policy restraint later this year. 4 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches getting back to the title of my talk today : will this time be different? my answer is, of course it will. every time is different. but we can still learn from past episodes. we cannot know if there will be unanticipated exogenous shocks that require a policy response different from what will be envisaged at the beginning of the easing cycle. all we can do is assess the risks as best we can, given the available information and our best forecasts. in the absence of unanticipated exogenous shocks, policymakers can weigh multiple factors, including keeping policy restrictive enough to tamp down a possible resurgence of inflation due to the strength of aggregate demand or easing sooner to avoid an undue increase in unemployment. unfortunately, the history that i have reviewed today suggests that we should not be surprised if some kind of unanticipated shock occurs. given that we must accept that uncertainty is present, we consider the risks that can affect our outlook and forecasts. looking ahead, i see at least three key risks. first, as i mentioned at the beginning, consumer spending could be even more resilient than i currently expect it to be, which could cause progress on inflation to stall. second, employment could weaken as the factors supporting economic growth fade. third, geopolitical risks could remain elevated, and a widening of the conflict in the middle east could have greater effects on commodity prices, such as oil, and on global financial markets. i remain cautiously optimistic about our progress on inflation, and i will be reviewing the totality of incoming data in assessing the economic outlook and

we will be monitoring developments in the labor market closely. once the temporary shocks that have been holding down economic activity pass, we expect to again see the effects of policy accommodation reflected in stronger economic activity and easing on interest rates ( pdf ), ” working paper ( evanston, ill. : kellogg school of management, northwestern university, june ) ; stefania d ’ amico and thomas b. king ( 2010 ), “ flow and stock effects of large - scale treasury purchases, ” finance and economics discussion series 2010 – 52 ( washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, september ) ; joseph gagnon, matthew raskin, julie remache, and brian sack ( 2011 ), “ large - scale asset purchases by the federal reserve : did they work? ( pdf ) ” federal reserve bank of new york, economic policy review, vol 17 ( may ), pp. 41 – 59 ; and eric t. swanson ( 2011 ), “ let ’ s twist again : a high - frequency event - study analysis of operation twist and its implications for qe2 ( pdf ), ” working paper series 2011 – 08 ( san francisco : federal reserve bank of san francisco, february ), and brookings papers on economic activity ( forthcoming ). see hess chung, jean - philippe laforte, david reifschneider, and john c. williams ( 2011 ), “ have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events? ( pdf ) ” working paper series 2011 – 01 ( san francisco : federal reserve bank of san francisco, january ). bis central bankers ’ speeches job creation. however, given the range of uncertainties about the strength of the recovery and prospects for inflation over the medium term, the federal reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate. on the one hand, the possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support. even with the federal funds rate close to zero, we have a number of ways in which we could act to ease financial conditions further. one option would be to provide more explicit guidance about the period over which the federal funds rate and the balance sheet would remain at their current levels. another approach would be to initiate more securities purchases or to increase the average maturity of our holdings. the federal reserve could also reduce the 25 basis point rate of