the growth prospects of emerging markets. india, together with brazil, russia and china, could be over half the size of today ’ s six largest industrialised economies by 2025, and in less than 40 years they could overtake them. 8 looking ahead to 2050, china would be the world ’ s largest economy and india would be its third largest, behind the united states. a similar picture emerges from other studies, with some nuances. 9 see imf, “ world economic outlook ”, september 2007. see forbes'global 2000 _ rank. html ). see forbes'list billionaires _ rank. html ). see merrill lynch and capgemini, “ world wealth report, 10th anniversary ”, 1996 - 2006. see d. wilson and r. purushothaman “ dreaming with brics : the path to 2050 ”, global economics paper no 99, goldman sachs, 1 october 2003. see e. g. j. hawksworth “ the world in 2005 : how big will the major emerging market economies get and how can the oecd compete? ”, price waterhouse coopers, march 2006 ; s. poncet “ the long - term growth prospects of the world economy : horizon 2050 ”, cepii working paper no 2006, 16 october 2006. of list ( http : / / www. forbes. com / lists / 2007 / 18 / biz _ 07forbes2000 _ the - global - billionaires ( http : / / www. forbes. com / lists / 2007 / 10 / 07billionaires _ the - worlds - if history is any guide, these developments are unsurprising. it suffices to recall how significant india ’ s weight in the world economy was two millennia ago, when the middle kingdoms were ruling in india and the roman empire was ruling in europe and north africa. at that time, india was by far the world ’ s largest economic power, accounting alone for about a third of world output. 10 moreover, at par with china, it subsequently remained the largest economy in the world for several centuries, until the eve of the industrial revolution. seen from this long - run perspective, the rapidly growing importance of india in today ’ s world economy seems to be a return to normality. the developments we observe today are therefore likely to be the precursor of a profound rebalancing in the distribution of world output tomorrow. these developments call for constant monitoring and cooperation in the

npls. i hope that greek banks will find the means and the instruments necessary in order to continue disposing of the npls. from your long experience as finance minister of spain and your participation in the eurogroup from 2011 to 2018, in a particularly difficult period for greece, what does the greek government need to do in order to persuade its european partners to achieve a reduction of the primary surplus targets for 2021 – 22? first of all, i don ’ t want to lecture anybody. each country is different. i think that the greek government knows perfectly well what it has to do. but i think there are two recommendations that are valid for every european country. the first is to be competitive, and the greek economy is now competitive. the second is that it is very important to have a banking industry that works. so it is very important to focus on the situation of the banks. fiscal policy is beyond the remit of the ecb. however, a general observation is that once you start making your public finances sounder and better, you start reaping the various benefits. i think that this is something which is happening now in greece. interest rates have fallen significantly, spreads are narrowing and even rating agencies have started to improve their rating of greek bonds and their outlook. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches although there appears to be a detente in the us - china trade war, do you think that it still poses a threat to the european economy? what other risks are of concern to the ecb? the signing of phase 1 of the trade agreement between china and the united states was a positive step and provides some relief from trade policy uncertainty. markets reacted very positively. we will see what happens next. regardless of this trade agreement ’ s various potential implications for europe, it is very important that we defend our rules - based multilateral trade system. we believe it is the key to creating prosperity and wealth all over the world. it ’ s the approach that ’ s supported by the european institutions, and the ecb fully agrees with it. is the ecb concerned about the impact of the coronavirus on the european economy? the outbreak of the coronavirus is an important element that has had a huge impact on equity markets and commodity prices. i think we have to be very prudent. we are in the first stage of this outbreak and know very little about the characteristics of the virus so far. we have quite a lot to learn so it would be a