##nts / speech / brainard20160912a. htm. - - - - - - - - ( 2017 ). “ understanding the disconnect between employment and inflation with a low neutral rate, ” speech delivered at the economic club of new york, new york, september 5, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20170905a. htm. - - - - - - - - ( 2018 ). “ navigating monetary policy as headwinds shift to tailwinds, ” speech delivered at the money marketeers of new york university, new york, march 6, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20180306a. htm. bureau of labor statistics ( 2017 ). “ estimating the u. s. labor share, ” monthly labor review ( february ), https : / / www. bls. gov / opub / mlr / 2017 / article / estimating - the - uslabor - share. htm. hooper, peter, frederic s. mishkin, and amir sufi ( 2019 ). “ prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy : is the phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating? ” paper presented at the u. s. monetary policy forum, new york, february 22, https : / / research. chicagobooth. edu / igm / usmpf / usmpf - paper. international monetary fund ( 2019 ). “ a weakening global expansion, ” world economic outlook update. washington : imf, january, https : / / www. imf. org / en / publications / weo / issues / 2019 / 01 / 11 / weo - updatejanuary - 2019. kiley, michael t., and john m. roberts ( 2017 ). “ monetary policy in a low interest rate world, ” brookings papers on economic activity, spring, pp. 317 - 96, https : / / www. brookings. edu / wp - content / uploads / 2017 / 08 / kileytextsp17bpea. pdf. organisation for economic co - operation and development ( 2019 ). “ oecd sees global growth slowing, as europe weakens and risks persist, ” press release, march 6, http : / / www.

the past eighteen months, the committee expects economic growth to moderate somewhat next year. real output is anticipated to expand 3¼ to 3¾ percent, somewhat less rapidly than in recent years. the unemployment rate is likely to remain close to its recent very low levels. energy prices could ease somewhat, helping to trim pce inflation next year to around 2 to 2½ percent, somewhat above the average of recent years. conclusion the last decade has been a remarkable period of expansion for our economy. federal reserve policy through this period has been required to react to a constantly evolving set of economic forces, often at variance with historical relationships, changing federal funds rates when events appeared to threaten our prosperity, and refraining from action when that appeared warranted. early in the expansion, for example, we kept rates unusually low for an extended period, when financial sector fragility held back the economy. most recently we have needed to raise rates to relatively high levels in real terms in response to the side effects of accelerating growth and related demand - supply imbalances. variations in the stance of policy - or keeping it the same - in response to evolving forces are made in the framework of an unchanging objective - to foster as best we can those financial conditions most likely to promote sustained economic expansion at the highest rate possible. maximum sustainable growth, as history so amply demonstrates, requires price stability. irrespective of the complexities of economic change, our primary goal is to find those policies that best contribute to a noninflationary environment and hence to growth. the federal reserve, i trust, will always remain vigilant in pursuit of that goal.