quarter. labour market conditions have deteriorated dramatically, as indicated by the unprecedented take - up rate of employment support schemes. of course, these government measures should help to support jobs and income and hence cushion consumption in these difficult circumstances. looking ahead, we are faced with a cloud of uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches the economic damage it will leave behind, which makes the job of forecasting macroeconomic developments more difficult than usual. growth scenarios prepared by ecb staff suggest that, this year, gdp could fall by between 5 percent in a mild scenario and 12 percent in a severe scenario. as the containment measures are gradually lifted, these scenarios foresee a recovery in economic activity. obviously, the extent of the contraction and the recovery will depend crucially on how long the containment measures are in place, the extent to which supply capacity and domestic demand are permanently affected, and the success of policies to mitigate the economic impact for businesses and workers. as regards inflation developments, headline inflation decreased further, to 0. 4 percent in april ( from 0. 7 percent in march ) according to first estimates, mainly due to the large drop in oil prices. based on current oil price expectations, inflation is likely to fall much further in the coming months. in this unprecedented environment, the decisive and targeted policy measures the ecb has taken since early march have provided crucial support to the euro area economy, notably to those sectors most exposed to the crisis. they support ample liquidity conditions, protect the smooth flow of credit to households and businesses, and preserve favourable financing conditions for all sectors and countries. under our pandemic emergency purchase programme, or pepp, as well as under our other asset purchase programmes, by the end of this year we will have purchased more than €1 trillion of bonds. these purchases, also thanks to their in - built flexibility, are helping to forestall an undue tightening of financing conditions and to counter the severe risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the outlook for the euro area posed by the coronavirus pandemic. we have made the conditions of our targeted longer - term refinancing operations ( tltro iii ) substantially more attractive. we have also launched a new series of non - targeted pandemic emergency longer - term refinancing operations, or peltros, to ensure sufficient liquidity to the financial system. finally, we substantially eased our collateral rules to ensure that banks can make full

change in the use of currencies is very unlikely. question : you were chairing the “ paris club ” for rescheduling the debts. did that help you in your present function, and what are the perspectives for these countries in overcoming the high debts? trichet : i have a very vivid memory of the crisis of the emerging countries debt in the 80s. and i was very happy to contribute, as chairman of the paris club, to the success of the egyptian debt rescheduling at the end of this difficult period. we always learn a lot – all of us – from such demanding experience. that being said, we are in a totally different situation today with the difficulties starting in the industrialized world. question : various central banks see the need to preserve the stability for prices. you are quoted as saying that there is no need to have a global monetary policy. could you elaborate? trichet : to my knowledge all central banks are aiming at ensuring price stability. this is very important. but the fact that they pursue the same goal does not mean that they have the same monetary policy stance for a very simple reason : their economies are not the same with different structures, a different environment and different shocks to cope with. so, we must be clear on what we understand with international policy coordination. it does not mean a unique policy stance for the entire world. but it means monetary policies geared towards domestic price stability, sound and sustainable public finances and flexible economic structures. it also means very close and confident cooperation between policymakers of all systemically important economies of the world. question : are there any agreements expected to take place during your visit in egypt? trichet : today, 26 november, i will have the pleasure to sign with dr farouk el okdah, governor of the central bank of egypt, a memorandum of understanding which will intensify the cooperation between the ecb and the central bank of egypt ahead of the start by 1 january 2009 of a new programme of technical assistance in the field of banking supervision. the aim of this programme, which will involve the ecb in partnership with the national central banks of bulgaria, the czech republic, france, germany, greece, italy and romania is to gradually strengthen banking supervision in egypt towards basic basel ii compliance, in line with the strategy devised by the central bank of egypt. the european commission will finance the new programme starting next year in the framework of the cooperation between egypt and the european union. furthermore, i will have