sethaput suthiwartnarueput : navigating the thai economy through global uncertainty speech by dr sethaput suthiwartnarueput, governor of the bank of thailand, at the association of international banks ( aib ) dinner talk, siam, 4 august 2023. * * * khun somlak tinmanee, chairman of the aib khun payong srivanich, chairman of the tba distinguished guests, it is a great pleasure to be here again. given this broad topic, i will cover three areas today. first, i will share with you my thoughts about the economy, where it is now and where it is heading. second, i will talk about the bank of thailand ( bot )'s policy responses to the economic conditions, both on the monetary policy side and on the financial policy side. and third, the risks i see going forward that we should be paying attention to. part 1 : the stage of economic recovery on the topic of the economy, the short message is that recovery is intact, with growth and inflation moving back to targets. the broad contours of where we see the economy going are along the lines of what we anticipated, though there is some degree of softness. initially, economic recovery was largely driven by domestic factors - consumption, services, and tourism. this is still the case, but there is some softness. on the growth front, gdp numbers for q2, due later this month, are likely to come out a bit softer than expected, as exports have been impacted by global factors like china's slowdown and late recovery in the electronic cycle. on the other hand, domestic consumption is growing quite well, with a forecast of well above 4 %. given the softness we have seen in the first half of the year, our latest gdp forecast of 3. 6 % could be revised slightly downward, but we still expect to see growth within the long - term potential range of 3 4 %. the second half should still hold up quite well compared to the first half, mainly driven by tourism. we still maintain our forecast of 29 million tourists this year despite fewer chinese tourists than expected. non - chinese tourists have compensated for the shortfall, but we see some softness in total spending. we see the same story in terms of inflation. the disinflation process in thailand has been faster than expected. the latest headline cpi outturn of 0. 23 % in june - 23 is probably the lowest

tarisa watanagase : thailand's weathering the global downturn address by dr tarisa watanagase, governor of the bank of thailand, at a luncheon with eu ambassadors, bangkok, 3 february 2009. * * * your excellency ambassador hotek, excellencies, honourable guests, ladies and gentlemen, i am delighted to join this luncheon gathering of prominent ambassadors of the council of european union in thailand, under the presidency of ambassador ivan hotek of the czech republic. indeed, i would like to extend my sincere appreciation to ambassador hotek for his kind invitation for me to update excellencies from the eu countries on recent economic developments in thailand and the prospects for 2009. let me begin with the overview of thailand's economic performance. the thai economic performance was satisfactory for 2008 as a whole. gdp is estimated to grow by around 3. 6 percent, driven by the growth momentum during the first three quarters of the year. notably, from october 2008 onwards, economic developments have been deteriorating. during the fourth quarter of 2008, exports weakened considerably, falling by 9. 4 percent from the same quarter of the previous year. since october, exports showed large reduction in manufacturing products, especially high - technology products. on the domestic side, demand as well as consumers'and investors'confidence have deteriorated as evidenced by several indicators reported by the bank of thailand, including the business sentiment index, which fell to the lowest level at 34. 4 in november last year. in light of this, businessmen and the press started to become concerned about the potentially higher unemployment, which exacerbated confidence further. turning to economic stability, inflation pressure has dissipated starting august 2008. headline and core inflation rates, which were at 9. 2 and 3. 7 percent respectively at their peaks in july 2008, fell to 0. 4 and 1. 8 percent at the end of the year. as for the financial sector, our banking system is healthy in terms of profitability and capital base. i will return to touch on the financial sector later on. economic stability on the external front is also very strong. for 2008, the current account recorded a small deficit of 0. 2 billion us dollar. our international reserves amounted to 111 billion us dollar, which is 4 times of short - term external debt. the exchange rate remains competitive and stable. for 2008, the capital account recorded an overall surplus of 12. 8 billion us dollar, of which foreign direct investment or fdi was