when compared to historical levels, the household sector continues to appear resilient at an aggregate level. tracker rate borrowers, and in particular those with a history of previous repayment challenges dating back to the global financial crisis, appear to explain the modest rise in early arrears cases seen up to the middle of last year. however, challenges remain. we recognise that there is a proportion of mortgages in long - term arrears where resolution of these arrears will require system - wide initiatives and we will continue to work with firms and with the broader system on this. we cannot be complacent, notwithstanding the robustness of our framework and our work to enhance consumer protections and supports for those in difficulty. finally, i should add that we continue to look to mitigate the risks to consumers of financial services from increased costs beyond the mortgage market. this has included work to enhance the transparency in the investment market around fees and the risks of complex products. and we have also implemented new regulatory regimes for short term and high cost credit, as well as running high impact consumer awareness campaigns on frauds and scams, including scams relating to advance fee fraud. regulatory priorities let me turn to our plans for 2024. every year we set our priorities for financial regulation and supervision in the context of our domestic and international responsibilities and current and emerging issues in the large and increasingly complex financial sector that 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches we regulate. overall, the financial system in ireland – and across europe – has proved to be financially and operationally resilient in the face of the turmoil of recent years. however, as the sector continues to grow in size, complexity and connectivity, we need to continue to deal with the medium - term implications of the evolving system and ensure that our policy frameworks remain fit for purpose for the future. our overarching objective remains ensuring we have a stable, resilient and trustworthy financial sector, operating sustainably in the best interests of the public and consumers. particular milestones in our work programme this year include putting in place a revised and modernised consumer protection code, continuing to progress work both internationally and domestically to address systemic risks from the non - bank sector, and implementing both the individual accountability framework and the new credit unions ( amendment ) act. we will in particular work with the department of finance on implementing recommendations from the retail banking review, in developing a framework to protect access to cash services and the resilience of

means that the domestic expenditure level in the euro area is running substantially below the output level. a related point is captured in figure 4 that shows the time - varying accounting contribution of net exports to gdp in the euro area. while net exports were quite significant during 2010 – 2013 and again during 2015 ( the first full year of the ecb ’ s accommodative monetary strategy ), the accounting contribution of net exports was marginally negative during 2016. 3 / 10 bis central bankers'speeches third, the extent and composition of international financial linkages matter for external spillovers that operate through financial channels. drawing on my joint research with gian maria milesiferretti of the international monetary fund, figure 5 shows the expansion in the size of international balance sheets ( relative to world gdp ) since 1990. furthermore, it illustrates the increase in prominence of financial centres as intermediaries of international financial assets and liabilities and the rising prominence of emerging and developing countries as holders and issuers of international financial positions. in relation to the former, the intermediation of financial flows through international financial centres calls for a deeper level of analysis in order to understand the underlying sources and 4 / 10 bis central bankers'speeches destinations for international financial flows, which is hampered by the considerable data gaps in the tracking of international financial transactions. in relation to the latter, increasing interdependence means that close monitoring of financial conditions in emerging economies is essential in evaluating risks to domestic financial conditions in advanced economies. fourth, the external value of the euro has varied sharply across time. this matters for the transmission of shocks and policies both through output and financial channels. as an illustration, figure 6 shows the euro - dollar rate over 1999 – 2017. even if 1999 – 2001 depreciation and 2002 – 2007 appreciation of the euro against the dollar had limited direct impact on the conduct of monetary policy during the 1999 – 2007 period, these medium - term fluctuations plausibly exerted considerable influence on financial conditions in the euro area, given the extensive bilateral linkages between the us and european financial systems and the unique role of the dollar in the international financial system. 3 5 / 10 bis central bankers'speeches more recently, it is plausible that diverging monetary strategies between the ecb and the federal reserve played a role in the appreciation of the euro against the dollar from mid - 2012 to mid2014 and the subsequent depreciation in the second half of 2014 and early 2015. however, in evaluating the transmission mechanisms of