. 3 per cent in 2021, with gdp returning to its pre - pandemic level at the end of the year. however, growth slowed to 0. 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2021 and is expected to remain weak during the first quarter of 2022. the prospects for the economy will depend on the course of the russia - ukraine war and on the impact of economic and financial sanctions and other measures. at the same time, other headwinds to growth are now waning. in the baseline of the staff projections, the euro area economy should still grow robustly in 2022 but the pace will be slower than was expected before the outbreak of the war. measures to contain the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant have had a milder impact than during previous waves and are now being lifted. the supply disruptions caused by the pandemic also show some signs of easing. the impact of the massive energy price shock on people and businesses may be partly cushioned by drawing on savings accumulated during the pandemic and by compensatory fiscal measures. over the medium term, according to the baseline of the staff projections, growth will be driven by robust domestic demand, supported by a stronger labour market. with more people in jobs, households should earn higher incomes and spend more. the global recovery and the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support are also contributing to this growth outlook. fiscal and monetary support remains critical, especially in this difficult geopolitical situation. inflation inflation increased to 5. 8 per cent in february, from 5. 1 per cent in january. we expect it to rise further in the near term. energy prices, which surged by 31. 7 per cent in february, continue to be the main reason for this high rate of inflation and are also pushing up prices across many other sectors. food prices have also increased, owing to seasonal factors, elevated transportation costs and the higher price of fertilisers. energy costs have risen further in recent weeks and there will be further pressure on some food and commodity prices owing to the war in ukraine. price rises have become more widespread. most measures of underlying inflation have risen over recent months to levels above two per cent. however, it is uncertain how persistent the rise in these indicators will be, given the role of temporary pandemic - related factors and the indirect effects of higher energy prices. market - based indicators suggest that energy prices will stay high for longer than previously expected but will moderate over the course of

some of the intrinsic features of the g20 come again to the fore : the g20 is composed of countries with different economic structures, different political systems and different short - term interests. such diversity makes it obviously harder to reach consensus, harder for instance than at the level of the g7 which is a similar forum, whose death was also declared prematurely. the g20 remains important for policy dialogue with a view to reaching a common understanding on economic challenges shaping the outlook. such a common understanding is a key condition for being ready to act in a globally cooperative manner when the need arises. therefore, the main question now is how to further improve the g20 ’ s effectiveness as an informal forum for economic policy dialogue. the imf points to the fact that “ growth dynamics further diverge ” at the global level and states that, in particular. “ the advanced economies have recently gained some speed, while the emerging market economies have slowed [ and that ] the emerging market economies, however, continue to account for the bulk of global growth. within each group, there are still broad differences in growth and position in the cycle ” ( see weo, october 2013, chapter 1 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches let me throw out, for discussion among the panellists, three ideas : first, it is essential to return to a more focused agenda. the g20 should concentrate on topics where it can bring genuine value added compared to the activities of the formal institutions which, at the global level, deal with economic policy matters. since the core of the g20 remains the finance ministers and central bank governors ’ meetings, the g20 is not ideally placed to deal with e. g. food security or labour issues. thus, the number of work streams and working groups should be reduced. but the group is well placed to discuss global economic and financial challenges, such as financial regulatory reform, tax issues, macroeconomic policies and global financing. what we need is an effective division of labour between the g20 and the international organisations, with the latter providing technical / analytical input to the informal setting of the g20, but also receiving political signals on key orientations for an effective functioning of the international organisations in the global economy, e. g. that the imf should refine its surveillance of the global economy ; what the priorities and timetables of the fsb should be in terms of global financial regulation ; what route the oecd should take on tax evasion or tax transparency. my second idea –