capital requirements they need to have. some banks are resisting this strongly. they argue that tighter regulations will drive financial transactions into the world of “ shadow banking ” where the activities will be regulated lightly. in my view, international banks need to accept tighter regulation, which will mean lower returns on capital in good years due to lower leverage. in return, this approach should help them avoid the frequent bis central bankers ’ speeches crises and losses of bank capital which have been seen in the last two decades or so. hence, in the long - term, bank shareholders should be no worse off as a result. finally, emerging / developing economies have been subject to wide swings in financing from abrupt withdrawal of funds in 2008 to significant inflows recently, and as a result they are starting to implement capital controls. the risk is that these may spread unless financial flows become less erratic and more long - term and stable. 7. concern about commodity bubble and high - yielding products over the past several decades, the world financial system has produced a seemingly endless series of bubbles ( e. g. the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble and the yen carry trade ). each bubble had its apologists before it burst, who argued that it was rational and that “ this time is different. ” historically, commodities ( apart from oil ) were in a downward trend for over 100 years until 2002. since then the entire decline has been reversed and commentators are talking about a “ paradigm shift. ” compared to historical trends, commodities are as over - priced as the us stock market during the “ tech bubble ” of 2000. the parabolic rise in commodity prices has serious consequences and it is open to question whether the world economy is strong enough to support their continued gains. it is particularly damaging to inflation and growth in emerging market economies which are relatively heavy users of commodities. with interest rates at current low levels, investors are looking for high - yield products ; but high yield brings high risks as well. for example, some banks are marketing synthetic etfs tracking an index which are not collateralised by the underlying investment in the index but by other assets with the return guaranteed by a swap with a counterparty which involves counterparty risk. some etfs are offering a leveraged return up to 3x that on the index. the imf, among others, has expressed its concerns ( in the financial stability report april 2011 ) and pointed out that the computer - driven trading used by these products could lead to another “ flash - crash ” like

jorg asmussen : interview in borsen - zeitung interview with mr jorg asmussen, member of the executive board of the european central bank, in borsen - zeitung, published on 12 september 2013. * * * the summer in the euro area was rather quiet this time – compared with previous years. after the ecb ’ s summer break, do you feel properly relaxed and fit for the next all - night crisis talks in brussels? i ’ ve been back at work since the second week of august. it ’ s almost a tradition at the ecb for german members of the executive board to take an early summer vacation and then hold the fort in august. so my vacation is already just a memory. but on a serious note : how hot will it get in the much forecasted “ hot autumn ”, with new discussions about greece, ireland, portugal and co.? “ hot autumn ” is an interesting term, but i think it ’ s overestimated. even if many people, for widely diverging reasons, think that the world will look different on 23 september – following the parliamentary elections – it is not true. the introduction of the eurobonds and the end of consolidation, etc. will not come about on 23 september either. instead, in this autumn too, we will have to gradually confront the existing difficulties. what is the most pressing topic? greece will certainly be at the top of the agenda again, with two urgent issues that will need to be resolved this autumn under the ongoing programme. first, it is set to run a budget deficit in 2015 and 2016 that will need to be corrected during the troika programme review at the end of september, because greece has introduced a medium - term fiscal strategy. second, the ongoing programme reveals a financing gap in the second half of 2014 on the part of the donor countries, which will also need to be closed to ensure the involvement of the international monetary fund ( imf ), because imf involvement requires a programme that is fully funded for 12 months in advance. is that the gap of around eur 4 billion up to eur 4. 5 billion? i ’ m always amazed at the kind of speculation heard about such figures. that figure was given by the minister of finance wolfgang schauble. the exact amount cannot be quantified at all yet, and i wouldn ’ t like to speculate. the level will for one depend on the extent to which greece will be able