domestic demand is being maintained by a continued expansionary economic policy, combined with an optimistic view of the future in both the household and corporate sectors. in addition, growth abroad is expected to rise during the forecast period. this will contribute to an increased demand for swedish export products, which in turn will benefit business sector investment as resource utilisation rises. our picture of a recovery in the swedish economy is also supported by new statistics published after the monetary policy report. according to statistics sweden ’ s first preliminary compilation of the national accounts for the second quarter of this year, swedish gdp increased by 1. 2 per cent, compared with the first quarter ( seasonally - adjusted ). this is slightly more than the 0. 9 per cent we have assumed in our report, and also slightly more than other forecasters have expected. gdp has thus increased for five quarters in a row and has recovered half of the large fall totalling 8 per cent that took place during the previous five quarters. ( figure : gdp per quarter ). the picture of continued good growth is also supported by the national institute of economic research ’ s economic tendency survey, which was presented at the end of july. although the indicator fell between june and july this year, the fall was marginal and the indicator still points to the mood among companies and households being much stronger than normal. ( figure : economic tendency survey ). the purchasing managers ’ index in sweden rose to 64. 2 on the other hand, which can be compared with a figure of 62. 4 in the previous month. it was primarily increased orders and production that contributed to the rise. ( figure : purchasing managers ’ index ). moreover, new statistics show that industrial production has continued to increase strongly, and slightly more than market expectations, while the production of services has remained at an almost unchanged level. however, industrial production is still far below the earlier peak levels. ( figure : industrial and services production ). brighter labour market the recovery in the labour market has also continued. employment began to rise during the fourth quarter of last year, and unemployment has begun to fall. the forecast in our monetary policy report is that unemployment will fall fairly slowly, and be just over 7. 5 per cent in the year 2013. ( figure : labour and employment and unemployment ). since the report was published the labour force surveys for june have been published. these show that employment increased slightly more, and that unemployment was lower during the second quarter of this year, than we had forecast. inflation

is needed in the old ones. the old countries in the eu have presently a highly unfavourable demographic situation, as previously broad age groups are retiring and the base of active people to support them is being reduced. in sweden today, each person in the active population supports 0. 29 people over 65 ; by 2030 this ratio is estimated to have risen to 0. 42. the corresponding figures for italy and belgium are even more alarming. one way to reduce the dependency burden and increase the labour force is to try to get people that are unemployed, sick or in early retirement back to work. historically, however, the most reliable way to steadily boost the labour force has been immigration, as has been the case in the united states, for example. experiences and studies also show that people with the most advanced qualifications and best training most often have the greatest incentive to move, partly because the wage differential is bigger and partly because they find linguistic and cultural barriers easier to overcome. so to consolidate the welfare in the old countries, an increase inflow of highly qualified labour from the new member states would be desirable. the question is whether this is not correspondingly a disadvantage to the new member states. they have a somewhat different demographic situation, their dependency burden is lower today, but will later rise sharply and in several countries exceed italy ’ s or sweden's in 20 - 30 years. there is also a risk that it would be the best - qualified labour that would emigrate first. meetings in a broader circle having considered these prospects, i would like to provide an insight into how the enlargement changes the functioning of the eu. the riksbank participates in a large number of eu committees. i myself am a member of the economic and financial committee ( efc ), where senior officials from the finance ministries and deputy governors of the central banks in the eu discuss economic issues. the fact that there are now 25 countries instead of 15 and therefore considerably more at the table implies changes, of course. on the one hand, there is less scope for each country - the central banks, for example, don ’ t participate as often in the efc after the enlargement and the speaking time per person places greater demands on concise, brief contributions. on the other hand the discussion has been vitalised by the new countries, which in some ways are less bound by tradition and which have new angles of approach, sometimes for the simple reason that many leading decision - makers in the new member