’ s audience. i won ’ t quiz you about the federal reserve, but one aspect of our work that you may be familiar with is the fed ’ s “ dual mandate. ” these are the two goals set by congress : maximum employment and price stability. given these goals, our focus is studying and understanding the wide range of developments that affect employment, unemployment, and inflation. the economic outlook so, what are these developments telling us about the current economic outlook? i ’ ll start by saying that the economy continues to grow at a strong rate. the reopening of the economy means more jobs, more demand for products, and good momentum toward a full recovery. but, even with the strong pace of growth we are seeing, a full recovery from the 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches pandemic will take quite some time to complete. we ’ re seeing this process of adjustment to rapidly changing circumstances reflected in the data showing a record number of job openings, supply bottlenecks in sectors such as autos, and sharp increases in prices for some goods and services that are in high demand. one data point that is useful to look at to better understand these dynamics is gross domestic product, or gdp. thanks to widespread vaccinations and robust fiscal support, we saw rapid growth in the first half of the year. looking ahead to the remainder of the year, there are indications in the most recent data that the spread of the delta variant is weighing on consumer spending and jobs, and the pace of growth appears to be slowing somewhat relative to the first half. overall, i expect inflation - adjusted, or real, gdp to increase around six percent this year. turning to employment, job gains have been strong in recent months, on balance — particularly in sectors that were especially hit hard at points during the pandemic, such as leisure and hospitality. this growth in demand translates into large numbers of people getting back to work. we ’ ve seen an average of 750, 000 jobs added per month over the three months through august. and the unemployment rate continues to come down, and now stands at 5. 2 percent. but i cannot stress enough that we still have a long way to go to get back to our maximum employment goal. for example, there are still over five million fewer jobs today than before the pandemic, and the unemployment rate is still far above the levels reached early last year. a more nuanced picture appears when you look more closely at the employment

conversations reflects the unique aspects of the north country economy, which suffered outsize job losses at the onset of the pandemic and continues to experience a reduction in tourism owing to border closures. this area, like many across the second district and around the country, has its challenges. but i expect a strong recovery will take hold here, supported by the improvement in the broader u. s. economy. the fed ’ s policy response this brings me to the fed ’ s policy response. in its december 2020 statement, the fomc said it would continue asset purchases at the current pace until it sees substantial further progress toward our maximum employment and price stability goals. 1 given what i explained earlier, i think it ’ s clear that we have made substantial further progress on achieving our inflation goal. there has also been very good progress toward maximum employment, but i will want to see more improvement before i am ready to declare the test of substantial further progress being met. assuming the economy continues to improve as i anticipate, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year. i will be carefully assessing the incoming data on the labor market and what it means for the economic outlook, as well as assessing risks such as the effects of the delta variant. 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches it is important to remember that even after the asset purchases end, the stance of monetary policy will continue to support a strong and full economic recovery and sustained attainment of 2 percent average inflation. in particular, the fomc has indicated that it will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level until the economy reaches conditions consistent with its assessments of maximum employment, and inflation has reached 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. there is still a long way to go before reaching maximum employment, and over time it should become clearer whether we have reached 2 percent inflation on a sustainable basis. conclusion to close, i ’ ll say that it ’ s clear that the pandemic is far from over, both in terms of its effects on health and its effects on the economy. the unusual nature of this crisis means that this recovery is far different than anything we have seen before. but with time, i am confident that the economy will continue to move ever upward. thank you, and i look forward to your questions. 1 board of governors of the federal reserve system, federal reserve issues fomc statement, december 16, 2020