degree of acceleration of productivity growth that appears unlikely - - the imbalance between the growth in labor demand and the expansion of potential labor supply of recent years must eventually erode the current state of inflation quiescence and, with it, the solid growth of real activity. in this context, the economic outlook sketched out for the united states by both the office of management and budget and the congressional budget office is realistic, even in some sense conservative. but you should recognize the range of possible long - term outcomes, both significantly better or worse, has risen markedly in the last year. an acceleration of productivity growth, should it materialize, would put the economy on a higher trend growth path than they have projected. the development of inflationary pressures, on the other hand, would doubtless create an environment of slower growth in real output than that projected by omb or cbo. a re - emergence of inflation is, without question, the greatest threat to sustaining what has been a balanced economic expansion virtually without parallel in recent decades. in this regard, we at the federal reserve recognize that how we handle monetary policy will be a significant factor influencing the path of economic growth and, hence, fiscal outcomes. given the wider range of possible outcomes that we face for long - term economic growth, the corresponding ranges of possible budget outcomes over the next five to ten years also has widened appreciably. in addition to the uncertainties associated with economic outcomes, questions may be raised about other assumptions behind both projected receipts and outlays. with regard to the former, it is difficult to believe that our much higher - than - expected income tax receipts of late are unrelated to the huge increase in capital gains, which since 1995 have totaled the equivalent of one - third of national income. aside from the question of whether stock prices will rise or fall, it clearly would be unrealistic to look for a continuation of stock market gains of anything like the magnitude of those recorded in the past couple of years. on the outlay side, the recently enacted budget agreement relies importantly on significant, but as - yet - unspecified, restraints on discretionary spending to be made in the years 2001, 2002, and thereafter. supporters of each program expect the restraints to fall elsewhere. inevitably, the eventual publication of the detail will expose deep political divisions, which could make the realization of the budget projections less likely. in addition, while the budget agreement included significant cuts in medicare spending, past experience has shown us how difficult medicare is

christopher j waller : payments innovation, technical standards, and the federal reserve's roles speech by mr christopher j waller, member of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the international organization for standardization technical committee 68 financial services 44th plenary meeting, hosted by the federal reserve bank of minneapolis, minneapolis, minnesota, 17 may 2024. * * * thank you, president kashkari, for the introduction, and thank you to the conference participants for the opportunity to speak with you. 1 as you all know, the payment system relies on the kind of cooperation and collaboration that this body represents. so, let's begin by acknowledging that ongoing effort. from its founding, the federal reserve has played a central role in payments. we seek to foster a payment and settlement system that is safe and efficient. such a system promotes a vibrant economy, since it allows for participation from a broad range of individuals and businesses without requiring them to invest heavily in bilateral arrangements. technical standards are the common language used by payment system participants like businesses, financial institutions, payment system operators, and payment service providers. technical standards can help contribute to payment system safety and efficiency, benefitting the full range of participants. technical standards for payments are in no way new - we have had them in place for decades, and those standards make it more efficient to process a check, access cash at an atm, and carry out other functions less visible to consumers but essential to the payment system. as payments technology advances at a rapid pace, technical standards must also evolve. and they must do so in a way that supports innovation while promoting safety, efficiency, and interoperability among a growing number of payments products and technologies. today i will share some perspectives on technical standards, particularly in the context of evolving payments technology. everything old is new again but before getting to that, i would like to provide some historical context since the benefits of standardization within an evolving payment system predate this current wave of innovation. let's start with some early examples from u. s. payments history. the free - banking era from 1837 to 1863 experienced significant fragmentation and corresponding frictions in the payment system as competing banknotes circulated across different geographical regions, requiring costly and inefficient trading of various forms of currency and featuring high levels of fraud and counterfeiting. 2 later, during the national banking era from 1863 to 1913, checks were becoming a predominant form of payment at the same time that the population of the united states was