element in creating that opportunity is the provision of rigorous education and ongoing training to all members of our society. this proposal is not novel ; it is, in fact, the strategy that we have followed successfully for most of the past century and a strategy that we now should embrace with renewed commitment. over the long sweep of american generations and waves of economic change, we simply have not experienced a net drain of jobs to advancing technology or to other nations. since the end of world war ii, for example, the unemployment rate in the united states has averaged less than 6 percent with no apparent trend ; and as recently as 2000, it dipped below 4 percent. moreover, real earnings of the average worker have continued to rise. over the past century, per capita real income has risen at an average rate of more than 2 percent per year, declining notably only during the great depression of the 1930s and immediately following world war ii. incomes trended higher whether we had a trade deficit or a trade surplus and whether international outsourcing was large or small. more fundamental economic forces have apparently been at work. research on wealth creation in both emerging and developed nations strongly suggests that it is the knowledge and the skill of our population interacting under our rule of law that determine our real incomes, irrespective of the specific jobs in which these incomes are earned and irrespective of the proportion of domestic consumption met by imports. these upward trends in the standard of living, however, mask the stress that significant parts of our workforce endure. joseph schumpeter, the renowned harvard professor, called the process of progress “ creative destruction, ” the continuous scrapping of old technologies to make way for the new. standards of living rise because the cash flows of industries employing older, increasingly obsolescent, technologies are marshaled, along with new savings, to finance the production of capital assets that almost always embody cutting - edge technologies. workers migrate with the capital. this is the process by which wealth is created, incremental step by incremental step. the process of creative destruction has been accompanied by an ever - growing conceptualization of economic output. ideas rather than materials or physical brawn have been by far the greatest contributors during the past half - century to our average annual increase of 3 - 1 / 4 percent in real gross domestic product. technological advance is continually altering the shape, nature, and complexity of our economic processes. to effectively manage this ever - increasing complexity, our labor force has had

richard h clarida : us economic outlook and monetary policy speech ( via prerecorded video ) by mr richard h clarida, vice chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the foreign policy association, new york city, 16 june 2020. * * * it is my pleasure to meet virtually this evening with the members and invited guests of the foreign policy association ( fpa ). 1 i am truly honored to receive the foreign policy association medal. past honorees have included sheila bair, anne - marie slaughter, paul volcker, jeanclaude trichet, and my federal open market committee ( fomc ) colleague john williams — and so with this award, i am indeed in select company. although i have been very much looking forward to receiving this award in person, that, of course, is not possible tonight, but i greatly look forward to attending a future dinner to convey in person my genuine appreciation to the members of the fpa for this special honor. since mid - march, i, along with my fomc colleagues, have been working from home. indeed, just last week, we held our scheduled june meeting via secure teleconference. and while i certainly miss the opportunities for face - to - face interactions along the corridors of the board ’ s eccles building, i am grateful to have the ability to work from home and want to convey my deep gratitude to all of those on the frontlines of the crisis, who are working outside the comfort of their homes in grocery stores, hospitals, and other businesses that provide essential services. current economic situation and outlook while the coronavirus ( covid - 19 ) pandemic has taken a tragic human toll measured in terms of lives lost and suffering inflicted, the pandemic has also inflicted a heavy toll on the levels of activity and employment in the u. s. economy, as a direct result of the necessary public health policies put in place to mitigate and control the spread of the virus. real gross domestic product ( gdp ) declined at a 5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of the year and will almost surely continue to contract at an unprecedented pace in the second quarter. the unemployment rate, which reached a 50 - year low of 3. 5 percent as recently as february of this year, surged to 14. 7 percent in april, an 80 - year high. in may, there was a notable rebound in employment and decline in unemployment, and these developments