, supported by firm commodity prices, high employment levels, and the effect of the cumulative easing in monetary policy. we at the bank project that the canadian economy will grow by 1. 4 per cent this year, 2. 4 per cent in 2009, and 3. 3 per cent in 2010. the emergence of excess supply in the economy should keep inflation below 2 per cent through 2009. both core and total inflation are projected to move up to 2 per cent in 2010 as the economy moves back into balance. there are both upside and downside risks to the bank's new projection for inflation ; these risks appear to be balanced. in line with this outlook, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the inflation target over the medium term. given the cumulative reduction in the target for the overnight rate of 150 basis points since december, including the 50 - basis - point reduction announced last week, the timing of any further monetary stimulus will depend on the evolution of the global economy and domestic demand, and their impact on inflation in canada. with that, paul and i would now be pleased to answer your questions.

- term inflation expectations and wage growth remain elevated, and corporate pricing behaviour is normalizing only slowly. 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches since we will be discussing housing in more depth today, let me provide some additional detail now. the rise in interest rates has cooled demand for housing. since february 2022, housing resales have declined by 33 % and house prices by about 10 %. but shelter price inflation has picked up, running at above 6 %. structural pressures in our housing market are slowing the return of inflation to target. shelter price inflation has become more broad - based, with rent and other accommodation expenses increasing, in addition to the ongoing rise in mortgage interest costs, which is related to our policy rate increases. we look forward to discussing these housing dynamics with you in more depth. the combined impact of all these pressures on inflation is that we now expect inflation to be about 3½ % through to about the middle of next year. as excess supply in the economy increases, inflation should ease in 2024 and reach 2 % in 2025. overall, inflationary risks have increased since july. the forecast we released last week has inflation on a higher path than we expected last summer. in addition, rising global tensions, particularly the war in israel and gaza, have increased the risk that energy prices could move higher and supply chains could be disrupted again, pushing inflation up around the world. with clearer evidence that monetary policy is working, my colleagues on the bank's governing council and i judged last week that we could be patient and hold the policy rate at 5 %. however, to be confident that our policy rate is high enough to get inflation back to 2 %, we need to see more easing in our measures of core inflation. we will continue to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability, and we will monitor risks closely. our decision last week reflected our best efforts to balance the risks of over - and undertightening. we don't want to cool the economy more than necessary. but we don't want canadians to have to continue to live with elevated inflation either - and we cannot let high inflation become entrenched in the economy. if inflationary pressures persist, we are prepared to raise our policy rate further to restore price stability. in summary, we have made a lot of progress reducing inflation, but we are not there yet, and we need to stay the course. when price stability is restored, the economy will work better for everyone