this is probably an explanation for the price increases being surprisingly low. some productivity improvements and indications of shrinking profit margins in the economy as a whole also indicate that deregulations and increasing competition play an important role. i furthermore consider that the stabilisation - focused macropolicy and measures such as the tax reform have moreover increased the potential growth in the swedish economy. the strong growth that the riksbank - assuming an unchanged repo rate - calculates with, is slightly too low in my view. at the same time, i have a somewhat less optimistic appraisal than the majority of the mode of functioning of the labour market and competition in a number of markets in sweden. however, my assessment is that the low inflationary expectations are making it take a longer time before overheating tendencies are expressed in increasing consumer prices. this leads me to make the assessment that prices will not start to rise until the end of the forecast period but that price increases will then be stronger than the majority believes. my assessment is therefore that inflation at the end of the forecast period, in my main scenario, will end up marginally over the forecast that was reported in the last inflation report, which the executive board majority did not find reason to revise. my assessments of developments during the next two years differ then only marginally from the majority view. i am more concerned about the price tendency and the risks i see in developments after the forecast horizon. the assessments of the use of resources and future production possibilities are uncertain. structural changes of the swedish as well as the international markets make it particularly difficult to draw conclusions about future growth prospects. there is a risk that we go to excess. high, increasing indebtedness calculated as a share of gdp for both households and companies make me concerned for financial imbalances that can be on their way to being created, although our knowledge of what can be assumed to be long - term sustainable development is small. in my view, there is a risk that we overestimate potential output in the coming years and that we therefore accept an excessively high level of demand in the economy. low inflation expectations and the effects of deregulations and increased competition can lead to the excessively strong demand not producing an effect on cpi until a late stage, but primarily in other parts of the economy. the economic consequences that can ensue from an incorrect assessment can be high. although the probability of a dramatic development is small, the high costs that can

upswing in the usa has contributed to strengthening expectations of faster long - term growth in sweden as well. it is therefore important to understand whether an american level of growth is sustainable in the long - term and whether anything similar can take place in sweden. an important basis for the favourable development in the usa is probably the focus on budget consolidation and price stability that has guided economic policy there for a long time. we have had a similar development in these areas in sweden, although the process started later here. at the same time, there are similarities with regard to the strong penetration of information technology in the economy, although we are also later in this development. as in the usa, high asset prices and strong optimism have stimulated demand and increased the level of indebtedness in the swedish economy. although it is not yet possible to write off the risk of financial imbalances building up the usa imbalances that can have negative effects for the american economy - it now seems as if the american economy may be on its way to a soft landing. however, there still remain the global financial imbalances that have been built up over many years with very high saving in japan and very low saving and high indebtedness in the usa. we have still not seen how these imbalances are to be resolved and the consequences this will have for the world economy. although there are some indications that the swedish economy is experiencing a similar development as the american, the structural differences cannot be disregarded, which probably create greater inertia in the swedish economy than in the american. one such area is the labour market. considerable barriers to competition remain in the swedish economy as well. another difference is that the cyclical upswing we are now experiencing is taking place at the same time as an increase in growth and resource use in the rest of the world. we cannot therefore benefit in the same way as the usa from there being unused resources in the rest of the world. conclusions the riksbank makes the assessment now that gdp growth will be over 4 % this year and average over 3 % during the next two years. this rise is taking place after a number of years with considerable growth. despite this, inflation is low and is expected to remain so for the whole forecast period. we cannot with certainty determine the processes concealed behind the weak increase in prices. i drew the conclusion during the spring that we had probably underestimated the output gap, ie the amount of unused resources available in the economy initially and