sweden, where the amount outstanding of banknotes has been decreasing rapidly, and those of some emerging and developing economies, where infrastructure for banknotes is underdeveloped. while bordo and levin [ 2017 ] present research from the standpoint of advocates, cœure [ 2018 ] and amamiya [ 2018 ] raise issues to be considered from a central bank's viewpoint. exerted on the economy in the wake of the crisis, it will be necessary to respond with vigorous expansionary macroeconomic policies. if the response is inadequate or delayed, the economy will fall into deflation and face difficulty escaping from it. fourth, regarding a financial crisis, however, there is no better way than to prevent it. in doing so, ex ante and ex post financial regulation - - monitoring excessive risk - taking behavior of financial institutions and setting up a resolution mechanism - - as well as macroprudential policy - analyzing and assessing systemic risk in the financial system as a whole and taking policy measures based on it - - play key roles ( wakatabe [ 2015 ], pp. 142 - 147 ). regrettably, after japan's financial crisis, policymakers across the globe could not prevent the global financial crisis. they did, however, succeed in preventing another great depression by taking swift and bold policy responses after the crisis. 9 for example, central banks with inflation targets managed to keep their economies from falling into severe deflation even after the crisis. 10 moreover, financial authorities including central banks have proceeded globally with the development of financial regulations, so as not to repeat a disaster like the global financial crisis ever again. through these efforts, in an ever - changing economy, central banks must be vigilant and prepared for possible future financial crises at all times. iv. promotion of financial and economic education putting all this in perspective, we could gain a good sense of the most desirable qualities and skills of people working in the financial industry. let me start with simple examples. as the data revolution proceeds, there likely will be greater demand for those educated in kuttner, iwaisako, and posen [ 2015 ] point out, " although the united states and many european countries were also hit hard by the collapse of the housing market in the late 2000s, most responded decisively, partly because policymakers in those countries were determined not to repeat japan's experience in the 1990s " ( pp. 31 - 32 ). some economists argue that, if the 2 percent inflation target

of january 2018 ) global pmi di, % pts. y / y % chg., % pts. global manufacturing pmi output index projection for cy 2018 revision world 3. 9 + 0. 3 advanced economies 2. 3 + 0. 3 united states 2. 7 + 0. 2 euro area 2. 2 + 0. 6 4. 9 + 0. 1 6. 6 + 0. 6 global services pmi business activity index emerging market and developing economies china cy 13 note : figures are from the j. p. morgan global pmi. figures above 50 indicate improvement and below 50 show deterioration on a month - on - month basis. source : ihs markit ( © and database right ihs markit ltd 2018. all rights reserved. ). note : figures in the column “ revision ” indicate differences from the projections as of january 2017. source : imf, “ world economic outlook update, january 2018. ” chart 2 global economy global semiconductor demand by end use bil. usd automotive industry, etc. consumer computer, etc. communications cy 13 cy 16 note : “ communications ” includes smartphones, “ computer, etc. ” includes pcs and data centers, “ consumer ” mainly represents household electrical appliances, and “ industry, etc. ” includes industrial robots. source : semiconductor industry association, 2017 and 2014 factbook. chart 3 japan ’ s economy real gdp growth and breakdown by component ann., q / q % chg. private consumption government spending imports real gdp private business fixed investment, etc. exports change in inventories, etc. - 5 - 10 - 15 cy 1313 cy 15 15 16 16 source : cabinet office, “ quarterly estimates of gdp for october - december 2017 ( first preliminary estimates ). ” 17 17 chart 4 japan ’ s economy medians of the policy board members ’ forecasts ( as of january 2018 ) y / y % chg. real gdp fy 2017 forecasts made in october 2017 fy 2018 forecasts made in october 2017 fy 2019 forecasts made in october 2017 cpi ( all items less fresh food ) excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike + 1. 9 + 0. 8 + 1. 9 + 0. 8 + 1. 4 + 1. 4 + 1. 4 + 1. 4 + 0. 7 + 2. 3 + 1. 8 + 0. 7 + 2. 3 + 1. 8 notes : 1. figures indicate the forecasts ( point estimates ) presented in