strong macroeconomic fundamentals, which include the manageable inflation environment, a strong and resilient banking system, prudent fiscal position, and a high level of international reserve buffer. with all these developments as backdrop, we expect an even firmer economic recovery next year. based on official government projections, gdp will swing from a contraction of 7 - 9 percent this 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches year to a growth of 6. 5 to 7. 5 percent next year. the imf ’ s latest gdp forecast for the philippines for next year — at 7. 4 percent — is close to the high end of the government ’ s projection. inflation is manageable at 2. 5 percent in the first nine months of the year. it is seen to settle between 1. 75 – 3. 75 this year, and 2. 0 to 4. 0 percent next year and in 2022. favorable inflation gives room for the bsp to further ease monetary policy, in case needed. exports and imports will rebound from negative territory this year to 5. 0 - percent and 8 - percent growth, respectively, next year. fdis will rise to usd 7. 0 billion next year. overseas filipino remittances will rebound from a contraction of 2 percent this year — an improvement from our previous forecast of 5 percent contraction — to a growth of 4 percent next year. year - to - date, remittances dropped by only 2. 6 percent as of august. our overall external position will stay healthy. the balance of payments will post a surplus of usd 8. 1 billion this year and usd 3. 4 billion next year. the current account will also remain in surplus, at usd 6. 0 billion this year and usd 3. 1 billion next year. meanwhile, the gross international reserves will continue to hit new highs of usd 100 billion this year and usd 102 billion next year. our recovery prospects are supported by a whole - of - government approach to addressing the crisis. the national government has rolled out massive relief and mitigating measures, and boosted the country ’ s healthcare capacity. congress immediately passed critical bills to support the government ’ s covid response. for our part, the bangko sentral ng pilipinas ( bsp ) has been quick and decisive in responding to the crisis. our actions were meant to, first, boost market confidence and cushion economic activity ; second, provide liquidity to complement government programs ; third, sustain financial stability ; and fourth

. i joined the cbi in september 1986, just as the “ lawson boom ” was getting underway. and i was the cbi ’ s director of economic affairs from 1989 until the end of 1993 as boom turned to bust and the uk economy went through the last major recession before the global financial crisis of 2008 / 9. we also went through a great deal of upheaval on the policy front – with a major surge in inflation in the 1980s, joining the erm in 1990 and then leaving it two years later, and also having to deal with a very large public sector deficit in the wake of the early 1990s recession. perhaps when i was appointed to the mpc in 2006, twenty years after i joined the cbi, alarm bells should have been ringing in the business community. both my periods of involvement with national economic policy - making have coincided with periods of major economic turbulence in the uk economy! maybe you can take some comfort from the fact that my term on the mpc finishes at the end of may – which should usher in a calmer period for the uk economy and policymaking if past experience is any guide! from a personal point - of - view, however, this has been a fascinating period to be involved with uk economic policy - making. in my view, the actions taken by the mpc from the autumn of 2008 and through 2009 played a key role in stabilising the uk economy in the face of the mpc members typically undertake 2 - day regional visits which include around 4 in - depth discussions with individual companies and 3 meetings with groups of business executives. since i joined the committee in october 2006, i have undertaken 35 regional visits of this sort. bis central bankers ’ speeches negative and destructive forces created by the global financial crisis. but now that we have passed the worst phase of that crisis, a reassessment of policy is needed. i have been arguing for some time that we should be gradually removing some of the monetary stimulus provided in the depths of the recession by raising interest rates to reflect the improvement in the economy at home and abroad and to counter the rather worrying tendency of inflation to run significantly above the 2 % target set by the government. in recent months, however, there have been concerns about the sustainability of the uk economic recovery which might seem to weaken this case for higher interest rates. the gdp data for the final quarter of last year were disappointing, even allowing for the impact of the snow, and there are worries about the impact of fiscal