, but the failure of hiring to rise with vacancies could also indicate that firms perceive the prospects for economic growth as still insufficient to justify adding to payrolls. alternatively, subdued hiring could indicate that firms are encountering difficulties in finding qualified job applicants. as is true of the other indicators i institute at the university of california, los angeles ). on the cyclicality of college enrollment, see andrew barr and sarah turner ( 2013 ), “ down and enrolled : an examination of the enrollment response to cyclical trends and job loss ( pdf ) ”, paper presented at the perc applied microeconomics workshop, held at texas a & m university, college station, texas, march 20. for research showing that the high numbers of workers seeking disability status is correlated with sectoral employment declines and demographics and not correlated with the rate of workplace injuries, see norma b. coe and matthew s. rutledge ( 2013 ), “ why did disability allowance rates rise in the great recession? ( pdf ) ” center for retirement research paper 13 – 11 ( chestnut hill, mass. : center for retirement research at boston college, august ) ; and john merline ( 2012 ), “ the sharp rise in disability claims ( pdf ) ”, federal reserve bank of richmond, region focus ( second / third quarter ), pp. 24 – 26. the effects of the great recession on retirements are difficult to identify. during the recession and immediately after, the losses in wealth may have put upward pressure on labor force participation ; the persistently weak labor market may have subsequently contributed to more retirements and thus put downward pressure on participation. perhaps as a result of these confounding forces, early research on the effects of the great recession on retirement finds unclear results. for example, see alan l. gustman, thomas l. steinmeier, and nahid tabatabai ( 2011 ), “ how did the recession of 2007 – 2009 affect the wealth and retirement of the near retirement age population in the health and retirement study? ” nber working paper series 17547 ( cambridge, mass. : national bureau of economic research, october ). for a discussion of these developments, see richard w. johnson ( 2012 ), “ older workers, retirement, and the great recession ( pdf ) ” ( stanford, calif. : russell sage foundation and the stanford center on poverty and inequality, october ). see tomaz cajner, dennis mawhirter, christopher nekarda,

increases and tightening conditions in the labour market, which also carry the potential for overheating of the economy and higher inflation. these are a source of concern because they could ultimately damage the economy. one feature of the strong performance of the economy is the growth in private sector credit. the cumulative growth in the past three years was over 50 per cent and it is now increasing at an annual rate above 20 per cent. as we started from a level of indebtedness relatively low by international standards, growth on this scale may not be a cause of immediate alarm. on all previous experience, however, it would be unsustainable in the longer term without inflationary consequences. the ready availability of credit at relatively low interest rate levels has been a contributory factor to the excessive rises last year in house prices which are now at historically high levels in real terms and by reference to average earnings. house prices have risen by 40 - 50 per cent since 1994. there are predictions that a further substantial rise in prices this year is likely. we may not be far from a situation where home ownership will be beyond the reach of persons on average incomes. there seems to be a perception that the central bank can exercise some legal authority in restricting credit. it has no such authority. any restriction would be inconsistent with european union practice. besides, it would be unworkable as demand would probably be met by overseas lenders. the introduction of the single currency will facilitate access by overseas lenders. the bank continues to monitor the conditions applied by the credit institutions in lending for house purchase. it has warned these institutions repeatedly of the dangers inherent in high rates of credit growth and any relaxation of lending standards. insofar as the bank can establish, 100 per cent mortgages have been issued only in exceptional cases where properties were being purchased for investment. the bank would not encourage this practice and the credit institutions have been so advised. economic and monetary union preparation for emu is a dominant feature of the work of the central bank at the moment. our duty is to ensure, as best we can, that ireland continues to fulfil the entry requirements, in particular the requirement on inflation, and that the banking and financial system in general is well prepared for the single currency. it now seems virtually assured that emu will start on schedule on 1st january 1999 and that a substantial majority of european union countries will participate from the outset. control of monetary policy will pass immediately to the governing council of the european central bank and