period average. sources : cabinet office ( 2013 ), " annual report on the japanese economy and public finance 2013 " ; bank of japan. chart 10 ii. price developments environment surrounding prices output gap and prices % output prices di ( tankan ) y / y % chg. di ( " rise " - " fall " ), % points large enterprises output gap ( left scale ) cpi ( less fresh food, right scale ) - 2 - 1 - 4 - 2 - 6 - 3 small enterprises - 10 - 20 - 8 cy 85 - 4 - 30 - 40 - 50 cy 85 notes : 1. the cpi figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate. the output gap is based on boj staff estimations. notes : 2. there is a discontinuity in the data of the output prices di in december 2003 due to a change in the survey framework. sources : ministry of internal affairs and communications ; bank of japan. chart 11 ii. price developments boj's forecasts of the cpi ( october 2018 outlook report ) y / y % chg. 2. 0 fiscal 2019 + 1. 4 % cpi ( all items less fresh food ) 1. 5 fiscal 2020 + 1. 5 % fiscal 2018 ( y / y % chg. ) + 0. 9 % 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 fy 12 note : figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate. forecasts are the medians of the policy board members'forecasts excluding the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike ( point estimates ). sources : ministry of internal affairs and communications ; bank of japan. chart 12 iii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy yield curve control % 1. 2 recent jgb yield curve 1. 0 0. 8 target level of the long - term interest rate : around zero percent 0. 6 0. 4 short - term policy interest rate : minus 0. 1 percent 0. 2 0. 0 - 0. 2 - 0. 4 residual maturity, year source : bloomberg. chart 13 iii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy strengthening the framework for continuous powerful monetary easing ( decided on 31 july, 2018 ) taking more time than expected to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent. maintaining the output gap as long as possible within positive territory is appropriate. persistently continuing with powerful monetary easing forward guidance for policy rates " the bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels

to the level seen at the start of 2020, services consumption has been slow to pick up, due in part to the impact of the resurgence of covid - 19. given uncertainty as to when the pandemic will subside, consumption will likely remain weak for some time. chart 5 real consumption cy 2019 = 100 104. 6 98. 2 93. 3 87. 3 cy2013 durable goods non - durable goods services overall ( consumption activity index, real ) source : bank of japan, " consumption activity index. " let us take a closer look at developments in the employment situation, which underpin private consumption. as presented in the left panel of chart 6, the unemployment rate, after having climbed to 3. 1 percent, improved slightly to 2. 9 percent ; however, the rate remains at a high level compared with that prior to the covid - 19 outbreak. to examine in more detail changes in the number of employed persons, chart 7 compares the number of employed persons by gender and age group between the average for the 2013 - 2019 period and the total for 2020, with the latter reflecting the impact of covid - 19. the chart reveals that, for each age group, in 2020 the number of employed persons started to trend downward. this is primarily attributed to the decrease in the number of non - regular employees, with the younger generations and women exhibiting significant changes. yet, for women aged 25 - 64, there was an increase in the number of regular employees, despite the extent of the decrease in the number of non - regular employees. as can be seen in the right panel of chart 6, the year - onyear rate of change in nominal wages has been negative since april 2020. in particular, it saw a larger decline again at the end of 2020, primarily reflecting a decrease in special cash earnings ; how this will affect future consumption is a matter of concern. chart 6 labor market conditions unemployment rate nominal wages and labor force participation rate % % y / y % chg. 61 - 1 60 - 2 unemployment rate ( left scale ) 58 - 4 source : ministry of internal affairs and communications, " labour force survey ( basic tabulation ). " chart 7 special cash earnings total cash earnings labor force participation rate ( right scale ) cy85 1985 90 contractual cash earnings 59 - 3 cy 16 2016 changes in number of employed persons female 10, 000 persons 10, 000 persons - 20 - 10 - 40 - 20 - 30 note : figures are based on continuing observations following