levels. improved employment, lowered oil price and low interest rates have increased household real income and consumption. in the corporate sector, investments have been supported by accommodative monetary policy and improving financial conditions. although investments have been very low for a long time, there is finally some positive signs available. looking at the european central bank staff projections from september, euro area gdp growth rate is projected to pick up from 1, 4 % in 2015 to 1, 8 % in 2017. inflation is projected to be 0, 1 % in 2015, and gradually increase to 1, 1 % in 2016 and to 1, 7 % in 2017. bis central bankers ’ speeches 3. russia russian economy has faced economic headwinds. the largest impact has come from the fall of the oil price that occurred since the middle of 2014. this illustrates the dependence of the economy on exports of oil, oil products as well as gas. a decreasing oil price easily puts the exchange rate on a downward slide. that has been the case also in russia. the fall of the oil price also has pushed down domestic demand in russia this year. this has pressed the gdp to a level that in the second quarter was 4. 6 % lower than one year earlier. there are signs that the slide may have stopped. however, for example the bank of russia in its latest forecast projects that this year the decline of the gdp will amount to 3. 9 – 4. 4, if the oil price stays at slightly below 50 dollars per barrel for the rest of the year. similar to the crisis of 2009, russia ’ s imports have fallen significantly this year, reacting strongly both to diminishing domestic demand and the weakening of the rouble. in terms of their value in euros, imports of goods and services into russia fell by 20 % in the first half of this year from the first half of 2014. expectations about the fall of the import volume for the entire year 2015 range between 20 and 30 %. regarding another burden, gdp growth in russian slowed down already years earlier befor oil price declined and sanctions due to geopolitical tensions. this slowdown reflected the economy ’ s systemic shortfalls like low level of fixed investments. this is naturally the fundamental burden when thinking about the future, about russia ’ s growth perspectives in a longer term. 4. finland finland is falling further behind euro area growth. according to the last bank of finland forecast from june 2015, finland will not catch up with the pace of recovery in

endgame " remains critical. the basel iii framework, with its stringent 1 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches capital and liquidity standards, addresses key vulnerabilities by ensuring banks hold adequate reserves to withstand financial disruptions. even as debates unfold across the atlantic, with the incoming us administration re - evaluating regulatory priorities, it is essential to remind ourselves that robust implementation of basel iii is a foundational building block for long - term financial stability. [ slide 2 roadmap of today's talk ] as you can see on this slide, i will first give you an overview of the esrb and its functions. next, i will discuss key risks to eu financial stability, based on the esrb's recent systemic risk assessment and major trends behind these risks. finally, i will share some thoughts with you on how we believe the esrb needs to change and develop in the continuously evolving systemic risk landscape. [ slide 3 esrb organisational chart ] the esrb benefits from a large and diverse membership. at the general board there are national supervisory authorities, national central banks, the ecb, the european supervisory authorities ( esas ), the commission. in addition to the steering committee, which sets strategy, there are two advisory committees, technical and scientific, that are both created by statute. the advisory technical committee considers topics from a policy perspective and is the primary operational arm of the esrb. it is the central hub for the esrb's analytical work. the advisory scientific committee, adopts a more academic perspective. composed of 15 external academic experts plus the chair of the advisory technical committee, it conducts research and provides advice to support other parts of the esrb's structure. [ slide 4 key risks in the eu financial system ] despite the challenges in the macro - financial environment over the past few years, the eu financial system has remained resilient. let me summarise our current view of the key risks to eu financial stability. [ slide 5 macro - risks : pursuing growth while nurturing financial stability ] in our latest risk assessment, we have identified three key financial stability risks facing the eu financial system. these are outlined on this slide. they concern : ( 1 ) the macroeconomic environment and potential balance sheet stress in the private sector ; ( 2 ) vulnerabilities in financial markets that can lead to disorderly market corrections ; and ( 3 ) deteriorating asset quality, and consequent funding risks in the banking sector. overall,