government command of output as a percentage of gnp in england. other 19th century legal changes that supported individuals from adverse side - effects of economic change included recognition of limited liability companies and constraints on the ability of courts to sentence debtors to prison. anson et al ( 2017 ), for example, discuss the emergence of the bank of england as lender of last resort. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches to mention one, the young men ’ s christian association ( ymca ) was founded in 1844, at around the time of engels ’ pause. it was established explicitly to meet the housing and social needs of young men who had moved from rural towns and villages to find work in factories in the cities. it soon grew into a regional, and in time global, network offering financial, housing, training and social support, to both men and women, cushioning the recessionary hit to societies. and that remains its role today. the story, then, is of a social infrastructure emerging to support workers and societies buffeted by technological change. these institutions aimed either to reduce the length or to limit the costs of adjustment by displaced workers. by enhancing skills and mitigating hardships, the incidence and cost of recessionary adjustment was reduced, for individuals and societies. and this, ultimately, was the difference between the living standards escalator of the golden era and the travellator of its malthusian predecessor. joseph schumpeter spoke powerfully about the forces of “ creative destruction ”. the lesson of history seems to be that we need both to “ cultivate the creative ” and to “ disarm the destructive ” if innovation is to translate into rising levels of social, human and infrastructural capital and, then, higher living standards. it is only by establishing strong institutional roots that technological fruit can subsequently be harvested. future growth and future institutions from the past and present to the future. what lies in store for future economic growth? it is difficult to know with any confidence. but if history is any guide, the story of growth will hinge on the interplay between the two “ i ” s – the disruptive forces of innovation on the one hand, the stabilising role of institutions on the other. there is an active debate underway on the first of these – the likely future path of innovation. some have recently argued that the pace of innovation may be declining. the argument here is that

their clinical competence in diagnosing illness and prescribing solutions. in a world of individual medical records and data - hungry diagnostic algorithms, much of the process of diagnosis and prescription might fall to machine rather than human. indeed, the uk prime minister has recently suggested a strategy to deliver just that. but that is unlikely by itself to eradicate the need for doctors. patients are still likely to want to discuss their diagnosis and prescription. and they will want this advice delivered personally and empathetically. in surveys of patient satisfaction it is a doctor ’ s bedside manner, rather than clinical competence, that matters most. in future, that balance between social and clinical skills may shift further. and, most likely, those social skills will be demanded from flesh - and - blood rather than robo - doctors. if both the nature of a career and the skills it requires are changing, does this carry implications for educational institutions? that seems likely. for decades, the primary focus of these institutions has been on providing young people with cognitive skills. that model has worked well in meeting the needs of the skill - shifts seen through each of the three industrial revolutions. carney ( 2016 ). pm speech on science and modern industrial strategy, available here : https : / / www. gov. uk / government / speeches / pm - speech - onscience - and - modern - industrial - strategy - 21 - may - 2018 for example : https : / / vanguardcommunications. net / doctor - online - review - study / all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches whether that model will meet the needs of the fourth industrial revolution seems more questionable, for two reasons. first, in future it seems very likely young and old alike will be in equal educational need – to train, retrain and retrain again through their 60 or 70 - year careers. second, the skills these people require for the future world of work will no longer be cognitive. rather, they are likely to be more evenly balanced between the cognitive, technical and social – head, hands and heart. it has become rather trite to talk of the need for “ life - long learning ”. but never has the need for such learning likely to have been greater given the longer span and greater volatility in future career paths. making these career transitions will itself call for a particular set of skills – personal resilience, problem - solving and flexibility. as is now