samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
of essence. bis central bankers ’ speeches

in this sector. what is more, robust domestic demand also played a role this time round. significant increases in real salaries and the continued labour market upturn had a positive impact on private consumption, while the robust financial health of the corporate sector coupled with a rosy business outlook helped to stimulate investment. final domestic demand thus rose 2 % in 2007, compared to 1. 7 % in the prior year. thanks to burgeoning demand, employment was up sharply, with the unemployment rate edging down to 2. 6 % in seasonally adjusted terms by december. the swiss economy is thus experiencing a period of virtually full employment and has been able to benefit from the flow of workers from the european union and the flexibility this brings. the economic figures for 2007 are all the more pleasing given that prices have remained stable despite the hike in commodity prices. over the year as a whole, prices increased by 0. 7 % on average. however, by december, inflation was up 2 % – an acceleration primarily attributable to the sharp jump in the price of oil. in such a favourable climate, it was important for monetary policy not to stimulate the economy any further. by persisting with excessively low interest rates, we could have aggravated inflationary risks and thereby disturbed the macroeconomic equilibrium. the snb therefore maintained its monetary normalisation course by lifting the libor target range by 25 basis points on three occasions. the three - month libor thus rose from 2. 1 % at the beginning of the year to 2. 75 % in september. in view of the considerable financial uncertainty and the effect this was having on growth prospects for 2008, we subsequently left the target range unchanged and stabilised the libor at the 2. 75 % mark. we have since maintained this position. turmoil on the financial markets the financial storm of the last nine months has challenged our assessment criteria. such turmoil poses considerable risks for the future. before i deal with these issues, please allow me first to look at the factors which have brought us to this situation. after several years of rising home prices in the united states, there was a trend reversal to the downside which hit the high - risk sub - prime mortgage segment hard. it was when credit rating agencies began a massive downgrading of sub - prime mortgage - backed securities that the global financial markets realised the full enormity of what was happening. during the summer months of 2007, the prices and liquidity of these securities plummeted. this turn
bank continuing success. thank you, mr. chairman.

sin will always be with us, several developing countries, including mexico and malaysia, have recently been able to borrow from international investors in their own currencies, and there is good reason to believe that this trend will continue. another reason to develop local currency bond markets is that it is desirable that local firms that need to borrow have the option of doing so in their own currency. in this regard, the ebrd's initiative to gain access to local currency funding for onlending to the private sector, rather than requiring that private sector borrowers take foreign currency loans, should be strongly commended and encouraged. given the greater sophistication and financial strength of the international financial institutions, they are in a much better position to in essence provide hedges against the risks of foreign currency financing than are local institutions. the ebrd has been able to gain such access in some countries, and it deserves our encouragement as it seeks to broaden this initiative. 3. graduation despite many setbacks, and an unexpectedly difficult beginning, the transition process has on the whole been successful - more so in some countries and less so in others in which the ebrd operates. this year, eight of the countries of operation of the ebrd are already full - fledged eu member states, and other countries of operation are preparing to achieve this status in the next few years. the bank has started a process of shifting resources away from the new european union member states to countries in south eastern europe and the cis. looking forward, further discussions of the process of graduation from ebrd financing will take place later this year, within the context of the next capital resources review. this exercise should be oriented towards formulating the bank's strategy on graduation through the year 2010. i believe that the ebrd should continue to shift its operations away from the more developed countries that are already in the eu, and should strengthen its focus on operating in the less advanced countries of operation, where the challenge of transition is greater, and where the available capital and knowledge resources are more limited. it would be useful to set guidelines for the dates by which the bank would phase out and cease operating in certain countries - but these guidelines should leave room for some flexibility, particularly in fields of operation in which the ebrd has special technical expertise. * * * in conclusion, let me say that the remarkable success of the ebrd in fostering transition in the region deserves the appreciation of all its shareholders. i wish the
with its potential. against the background of this encouraging overall picture, we face two main areas of uncertainty at present. the first is the impact of the strong exchange rate for sterling. the strength of sterling in recent years has impacted on virtually all areas of the economy - agriculture and some service industries as much as manufacturing. but the effects have undoubtedly been felt most severely by manufacturing. the frustration felt by those who have built up efficient and competitive businesses, only to find their market position threatened by a rise in the exchange rate over which they have no control, is entirely understandable. in our judgments on interest rates, we consider it extremely important to take account of differences in the conditions that different sectors of the economy, and different regions of the country, may be facing. for that reason, our 12 agents, located around the country, keep closely in touch with local business and provide us with a continuous and very up - to - date feedback on local business conditions. visits like my own today provide valuable opportunities for mpc members to supplement at first hand the feedback we get from our agents. the message we get - that the rise in sterling has been, and is, causing severe strains, comes through loud and clear and we give that considerable weight in our judgments about interest rates. the difficulty we face is that, while some part of sterling ’ s rise in the past few years probably reflects underlying strengths in the uk economy - the sustained growth in activity in recent years and the more flexible and competitive structure of the economy - it is very likely that sterling at its present levels is unrealistically high, and that this is principally a reflection of the persistent weakness of the euro over the past year or so rather than factors directly related to sterling. to compound the difficulty, it is in fact very hard to see why the euro has remained relatively weak at a time when growth in the euro - area economies as a whole has recovered strongly. for the moment, in judging the appropriate level of interest rates, we take very carefully into account the weakness of the uk ’ s external sector, and the impact particularly on manufacturing, as an immediate factor off - setting in part the buoyancy of domestic demand. but we also have to take into account the possibility further ahead that, if the exchange rate moves back to more realistic levels, as we expect, the boost that could bring to external demand could only be accommodated, without strain on the supply capacity of the economy as a whole, if domestic demand has moderated

country can continue to build their business and generate the sustained growth in output and employment that will provide permanent improvements in living standards.
growth, we will need to continue to remove monetary stimulus before the excess supply in the economy is completely absorbed. the pace and extent of this action will depend on the balance of domestic and external developments and on their implications for pressures on capacity and inflation in canada. now malcolm and i will be happy to take your questions.

payments now, i will talk about japan ’ s balance of payments. the current account surplus registered 3. 3 trillion yen last year. in the years for which a comparison can be made, it was the lowest figure recorded after 1985 ( chart 6 ). behind that, the trade surplus in electronic appliances almost disappeared and fuel imports increased materially after the suspension of nuclear power plants. on a quarterly basis, the current account balance registered a deficit for the first time in the october – december quarter last year, and is expected to remain in deficit in the january – march quarter. having said all that, the deficit in the quarterly current account balances fundamentally reflects solid imports thanks to resilient domestic demand due to the front - loaded increase in demand prior to the consumption tax hike this april. therefore, i do not expect the current account deficit to persist after the consumption tax hike. the deficit we see most recently is taking place under those somewhat unique circumstances. by contrast, according to the “ balance of payments development stage theory ”, 1 the current account balance changes from a surplus to a deficit in the long run as a result of the demographic change. it looks as though the recent increase in fuel imports is accelerating crowther ’ s “ balance of payments development stage theory ” explains long - term patterns of change in a country ’ s balance of payment structure as the economy advances from a debtor to a creditor country, and eventually to the one that liquidates its overseas assets. bis central bankers ’ speeches the change in the current account balance. the state of the economy – be it a trade surplus or deficit, or a current account surplus or deficit – is ultimately the result of people ’ s rational decision - making. it is irrelevant from the social welfare perspective. that leads me to conclude that it is not appropriate to say that a surplus is a good thing while a deficit is bad. nonetheless, if the current account deficit continues, meaning that a domestic saving and investment balance will shift from a surplus to a deficit, there is a possibility that the advantage japan has achieved by financing its deficits through ample domestic savings might change in the long run. c. overcoming deflation, and saving and investment balance let me now elaborate on the nexus between the saving and investment balance and the overcoming of deflation. i will start with the saving and investment balance under deflation. in japan, excess savings have been decreasing in the household sector, whereas they have been increasing in the corporate sector ( chart 7 )
an ageing population, i expect, but they will adapt more smoothly if we have some realistic discussion of the issues. i am sure that this will provide business opportunities of one form or another for the more alert and innovative market participants, including in the financial planning industry. i wish you well in your deliberations here today, and in your future efforts to serve the community. 6 / 6

the key to taking advantage of these opportunities. thank you for listening and i would be very happy to answer any questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches
. see tarullo, “ tailoring community bank regulation and supervision ” ; and jerome h. powell, “ regulation and supervision of community banks “ ( speech at the annual community bankers conference sponsored by the federal reserve bank of new york ). bis central bankers ’ speeches

under exceptional conditions are markets perfect and even under competitive equilibrium, credit markets may ultimately witness credit rationing owing to insufficient information i. e. information asymmetry. when lenders cannot assess the risk profile of borrowers adequately, they mistake good risks as bad ones and vice versa. lenders typically respond to insufficient information about borrowers by increasing interest rates. since credit is now expensive for low risk borrowers, they are driven out from the market whereas high risk borrowers finding credit cheap are brought in. this makes the portfolio riskier and interest rates rise to reflect this. higher interest rates create incentive even for good risks to take up riskier projects so as to have higher returns to compensate for higher cost of loan. furthermore, some borrowers may have incentive not to repay, because without information sharing they can still obtain loans from other lenders. thus, with the problems of moral hazard ( lack of penalty for non - payment ) and adverse selection ( i. e. higher interest rates attract riskier borrowers or make borrowers take more risks ), lenders ration credit i. e. given two entities with identical risk profiles, one will get a loan and the other will not. credit bureaux / credit information companies ( cics ) which enable sharing of credit information among lenders are an institutional arrangement to deal with moral hazard and adverse selection problems on account of information asymmetry. shared information allows better assessment of risk profiles of potential borrowers ( i. e. deals with adverse selection ) bis central bankers ’ speeches and creates incentive for borrowers to pay on time by limiting borrowers ’ ability to access credit from other lenders ( i. e. deals with moral hazard ). credit information bureaux have thus come into existence to deal with the information asymmetry issues and have come a long way since the first credit registry started functioning in usa in the mid - 19th century. cics deal with the problems associated with asymmetric information in the following ways, by : i. mitigating adverse selection by allowing loans to be extended to safe borrowers who had previously been priced out of the market, resulting in higher aggregate credit. studies analysing the effect of cics on credit markets found a positive effect on the volume of bank credit as a percentage of gdp and a decrease in credit risk. it was also found that firms in countries with better credit information systems were less credit constrained. ii. mitigating moral hazard by either incentivising
relied on a loose form of calendar or date - based guidance, in which they committed to leave rates low for “ an extended period of time. ” in some cases, a more specific time frame was mentioned, such as mid - 2014 or mid2015. the commitment was not unconditional, however. there was a clear, if implicit, understanding that, if the state of the macroeconomy and the inflation outlook were to change materially, the central bank would respond appropriately. the bank of canada pioneered the use of conditional guidance in april 2009. 2 it committed to hold the policy rate at its effective lower bound through the second quarter of 2010, conditional on the outlook for inflation. the bank ’ s guidance succeeded in changing market expectations regarding the future path of interest rates, providing the desired stimulus and thereby underpinning a rebound in growth and inflation in canada ( chart 2 ). 3 in more recent applications, forward guidance has become more explicitly outcome - or databased, with some central banks identifying thresholds such as specific rates of inflation or unemployment which, if crossed, would prompt a reconsideration of their policy track. the second form of unconventional monetary policy employed by many central banks involves purchasing large amounts of government bonds or other financial instruments. “ quantitative easing, ” as it is generally known, is viewed as a complementary and more direct means of easing credit conditions, exerting immediate upward pressure on the prices of the assets that were purchased, as well as those of other assets, through a process of at the zero lower bound, interest rate risk is asymmetric : short - term rates can rise, but they cannot fall. this asymmetry causes the mean or expected outlook for short rates to be greater than the modal or most likely path. thus, guidance can lower long - term rates by reducing uncertainty about the future path of short - term rates, even if it does not change the modal expectation as to the duration at the lower bound. for a review of the evolution of forward guidance, see m. carney, “ monetary policy after the fall ” ( eric j. hanson memorial lecture, university of alberta, edmonton, 1 may 2013 ). see z. he, “ evaluating the effect of the bank of canada ’ s conditional commitment policy, ” discussion paper no. 2010 – 11, bank of canada, 2010 ; and m. woodford, “ methods of policy accommodation at the interestrate lower bound, ” paper presented at the jackson

importance of countries getting their houses in order. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches
most of the speeches delivered at gatherings such as this are normally at a highly abstract and generalized level appealing to your sense of patriotism and urging you to help the country in a vague manner. but i wish to deviate from this tradition as i would like to make ten specific and concrete proposals for your consideration and through this forum to the larger community of overseas pakistanis all over the world. each proposal is targeted at a different segment of this group and you can pick and choose according to your own personal preferences and interests. some of these proposals are doable in the near future but others will take some time to crystallize. the purpose of presenting these proposals before you is to provoke some further thinking, debate and discussion. it will be quite understandable that some of these ideas are rejected after thoughtful evaluation but even if a couple of these ideas survive and are implemented, my purpose would have been achieved. first, the country is faced with a shortage of skilled manpower that is in high demand for sustaining the growing economy. while we have hundreds of thousands of educated unemployed, we have at the same time vacancies for hundreds of thousands of people in different skill categories. we would therefore like you to help fill in this gap by setting up institutions of learning for imparting vocational training and technical and science education ranging from universities, colleges, post - high school institutes to post - primary and secondary school apprentice workshops. the curriculum, content, the pedagogical tools and testing methods in these institutions should be designed and delivered in such a manner that the employers compete with each other to hire the products of these institutions. the government is encouraging private - public partnership in this area and has a number of existing physical facilities that can be used for this purpose. the federal government has formed an independent authority for technical and vocational education and you should approach this body with your specific proposals. second, groups of enlightened overseas indians and chinese have not only established institutions of higher learning in their countries of origin such as the indian business school at hyderabad set up in collaboration with kellog school at northwestern university and carnegie - mellon but they are also helping the existing institutions of learning and healthcare. some of you, i know, are helping aga khan university or shaukat khamam hospital but we need more of such quality institutions dispersed all over the country. we need them not only in karachi, lahore and islamabad but we need them in peshawar, quetta, hyderabad, sukkur, bahawal

. weber, m., ( 1918 ), politics as a vocation, speech at munich university ( german original, politik als beruf, published in : gesammelte politische schriften, munchen 1921, pp. 396 – 450. weber, m., ( 1919 / 1994 ) the profession and vocation of politics ” in max weber : political writing ”, trans. r. spears, cambridge university press.
the pandemic has also clearly refocused people ’ s attention on the environment. we cannot miss this opportunity to reduce and prevent climate risks and finance the necessary green transition. all of the available evidence shows that climate - related risks are real and have major consequences for our economy. a disorderly transition to a low - carbon economy could pose systemically relevant risks. given how interconnected our financial sector is, we need to address these risks together. the transition to a carbon - neutral economy will also provide new opportunities for growth, which can be unlocked by ambitious investment programmes. the eu will need up to €470 billion of additional investment every year to reach its current climate and environmental policy goals. next generation eu will strengthen the role of public budgets in green infrastructure financing. at the same time, the transition can only be successful if the private sector contributes as well. the financial system should be a catalyst for this change. policymakers should thus create the necessary conditions for the financial sector to do what it does best : allocate capital where it is most needed. the renewed sustainable finance strategy announced by the european commission should help to ensure that externalities associated with climate change are correctly reflected in prices. at the same time, we need to remove all obstacles to the development of a cross - border market for sustainable financial products. in other words, we need to finally complete the banking union and create a genuine capital markets union. and deep and liquid capital markets will also go a long way towards strengthening the international role of the euro and bolstering europe ’ s strategic autonomy. everybody needs to be ready for the profound changes currently sweeping our economies and our societies. the ecb ’ s ongoing strategy review will ensure that its monetary policy strategy is fit for purpose, both today and in the future. listening to european citizens ’ expectations and better understanding their economic concerns and expectations before making decisions is an important part of this review. if the right actions are taken now, this crisis can be an opportunity for us to create the conditions for more inclusive, greener and more digital growth. to come back to jean monnet ’ s words, this crisis can be an opportunity for europe to take a step towards the forms of organisation of the world of tomorrow. conclusion let me conclude. almost 60 years ago to the day – on 23 september 1960 – the europe bridge crossing the rhine between kehl and strasbourg was inaugurated. it has become a symbol of how close our two countries have become. the success of

. structural reforms are crucial to a better performing eu economy, i. e. an economy with higher potential growth, more employment opportunities and greater resilience to shocks. efforts to accelerate key economic reforms are now more important than ever.