. the cost level in the norwegian business sector has increased sharply in comparison with our trading partners. a rise is followed by a fall, and oil prices have fallen by more than half since last summer. as activity and earnings from the petroleum sector decline, oil service companies must seek entry into other markets. with a high domestic cost level, that task may prove demanding. chart : fall in petroleum investment a decline in activity on the norwegian continental shelf has long been anticipated. the fall in oil prices has accelerated and amplified an announced decline in activity. norwegian exports to other oil - producing nations are also in decline. this does not mean that the oil age is now nearing an end. nearly half of known oil and gas reserves on the norwegian continental shelf have not yet been extracted2. large new discoveries have been made over the past few years and the norwegian oil service industry is still receiving new orders. nevertheless, the norwegian economy must now adapt to considerably lower demand from the oil sector. after many years of relatively high wage growth in norway, the domestic cost level must again be brought more closely into line with that of our trading partners. a necessary adjustment of the cost level can occur in two ways : through lower wage growth than in other countries or through a depreciation of the krone exchange rate. estimate based on calculations in blix prestmo, strøm and midsem ( 2015 ) : ringvirkninger av petroleumsnæringen i norsk økonomi [ spillovers from the petroleum industry to the norwegian economy ]. forthcoming report from statistics norway. petroleum - related exports from mainland norway are also included. including reserves approved for development by holders of oil rights and other proven resources in fields and discoveries. see the shelf in 2014, norwegian petroleum directorate. bis central bankers ’ speeches over time, monetary policy can only influence inflation. monetary policy cannot assume a primary responsibility for delivering the necessary structural changes in the norwegian economy. but via the exchange rate channel, monetary policy can help facilitate the necessary restructuring process. chart : high wage growth ( incl. the depreciation of the krone ) without our own national currency the situation would have been more challenging. the social partners would have had to go it alone. the experience of some european countries shows that this can be demanding. with a floating exchange rate, the necessary adjustment of the cost level can take place faster and be less painful. the krone exchange rate functions as a stabiliser. the

andreas dombret : the marathon has only just begun – what will come after the stress test? opening statement by dr andreas dombret, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the press conference following publication of the comprehensive assessment results, frankfurt am main, 26 october 2014. * 1. * * introduction – the marathon has only just begun ladies and gentlemen what we have just completed – a comprehensive balance sheet assessment and a tough stress test for the 130 largest banks in the euro area – can only be described as a tour de force. dr elke konig has just presented the results of the exercise. i will now look ahead to the future. i will use the same metaphor which dr konig has already used, and which appears entirely appropriate here in frankfurt today. while we are sitting here in this room, a couple of thousand people are still outside running the frankfurt marathon. a marathon is, without a doubt, an enormous challenge. and anyone who intends to run a marathon should first undergo a rigorous health check to find out whether he or she will even be physically up to the task. the comprehensive assessment was an extremely thorough check - up, including a demanding “ cardiac stress test ”. you now know the outcome : germany ’ s large banks are robust enough to withstand even severe stress. this is certainly an encouraging result, as for the banks, the marathon is only just beginning. competition is becoming tougher and more international ; regulation is becoming stricter, and supervision more european ; in addition, the economic setting is challenging – think “ lowinterest - rate environment ” – and technology is continuously evolving. surviving and prevailing under these conditions is akin to a marathon. in addition, theoretically being able to withstand even severe stress will not automatically guarantee that the runner will finish the race. even though he or she may be in very good shape at the starting line, the runner can still make many mistakes during the race. and, in future, there will be no more “ sovereign paramedics ” at the side of the road to help stumbling banks back on their feet. 2. profitability – competition is tough and international what the exercise conducted over the past 12 months has shown is that germany ’ s largest banks are able to withstand even severe stress. that will certainly help them to finish the marathon – but will not be enough to enable them to win it. that aim will require not only resilience but also the ability to outrun the competition –