the initiation of policy firming ; consequently, expectations for the trajectory of the federal funds rate were little changed on balance. see chung and others ( 2011 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches the federal reserve ’ s balance sheet over a period of about five years that would commence following the initiation of policy firming. figure 6 shows the results of simulations of the frb / us model to gauge the effect of these asset purchases on the unemployment rate and core personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) inflation. for this purpose, the baseline path ( denoted by the dashed line in each panel ) is constructed using historical data in conjunction with the latest set of consensus projections from the survey of professional forecasters conducted by the federal reserve bank of philadelphia. then the staff model is used to simulate the counterfactual scenario in which the fomc never conducts any asset purchases ( denoted by the solid line in each panel ). 7 the pace of recovery under the baseline scenario is expected to be painfully slow. but the counterfactual scenario suggests that conditions would have been even worse in the absence of the federal reserve ’ s securities purchases : the unemployment rate would have remained persistently above 10 percent, and core inflation would have fallen below zero this year. of course, considerable uncertainty surrounds those estimates, but they nonetheless suggest that the benefits of the asset purchase programs probably have been sizeable. my final observation concerning the fomc ’ s asset purchase program pertains to the importance of clear and effective communications in the years ahead. as i noted earlier, both theory and empirical evidence suggest that market prices and yields at any particular time reflect both the federal reserve ’ s current securities holdings and also markets participants ’ expectations for its future holdings. consequently, a shift in expectations concerning the trajectory of the federal reserve ’ s balance sheet could have an important effect on financial conditions going forward. in particular, financial conditions depend on market expectations not only concerning the amount of the fomc ’ s purchases but also concerning the anticipated timing and pace of the eventual unwinding of those holdings. for example, financial conditions would likely tighten immediately if market participants came to expect a more rapid renormalization of the federal reserve ’ s balance sheet. in contrast, if market participants were to anticipate a more gradual renormalization, financial conditions would likely become more stimulative. to illustrate the potential importance of such changes in expectations, figure 7 depicts a scenario in which markets come to anticipate that the federal reserve

main street program to allow tribally owned enterprises to participate in main street lending while still continuing to provide distributions back to their tribal governments. similarly, we expanded the ppp liquidity facility to include non - depository community development financial institutions ( cdfis ) because of their ability to reach minority small business owners, including those in indian country. financial access the covid - 19 pandemic has exacerbated an already challenging landscape for financial access in indian country, where native minority depository institutions ( mdis ), credit unions, and cdfis are making exceptional efforts to serve native americans on and off tribal lands. 11 in 2018, the board worked with the cicd to convene native american financial institutions on the flathead indian reservation in montana and discuss how best to collaborate to maximize the impact for their communities. we remain committed to helping these vital financial institutions provide critical financial services in their communities. despite the significant efforts of native banks, cdfis, and credit unions, for many native americans, banking and credit access remain challenging. over 16 percent of american indians and alaska natives were unbanked in 2019, and survey research finds that only one in three native american respondents have a strong or very strong the minneapolis federal reserve ’ s center for indian country development website has an interactive map of banks and credit unions owned by, and cdfis primarily serving, american indian, alaska native, and native hawaiian individuals and communities at https : / / www. minneapolisfed. org / indiancountry / resources / mapping - native - banks. - 5relationship with lenders. 12 one reason for these low levels of banking relationships is a lack of proximate bank branches. majority - native american counties, on average, have only 3 bank branches, which is below the 9 - branch average in nonmetro counties, and well below the 26 - branch overall average for all counties. 13 this is exacerbated by low rates of broadband and cellular access in indian country, where it is reported that 28 percent of tribal lands and 48 percent of rural tribal lands are not covered by broadband. 14 native small businesses struggle to access bank capital even during normal economic times. native - owned small businesses also struggle to access cra - motivated loans. from 2014 to 2018, the total dollar amount of cra small business and small farm lending per capita in majority - native american or alaska native census tracts was less than half of what it was in majority - non