a sustained pace in 2018, supported by strong domestic demand and a notable increase in exports. investment should remain robust thanks to favourable financing conditions and the positive business outlook. net exports are expected to pick up in 2018 and be supportive of growth. the upswing is expected to continue in 2019 – 2020 with a gdp growth rate which should remain above - potential growth, despite a slight slackening in global demand. [ slide 5 ] in france too, the ongoing recovery has led to a strong decline in the unemployment rate which fell to 8. 9 % in the fourth quarter of 2017. since 2015, job creation has been boosted by measures to reduce labour costs ( cice, prs, sme hiring scheme ) [ i will come back to french structural reforms in more detail later ]. although the unemployment rate is still too high, 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches notably among young people, our latest projections forecast a steady decline until 2020. net job creations are expected to remain strong as the economy improves. following improvement in the labour market, wage growth is expected to build up, supporting households ’ disposable income and underpinning solid private consumption dynamics. [ slide 6 ] deflationary risks have disappeared in the euro area. headline inflation printed at 1. 3 % in march while core inflation is stable at 1. 0 %. we are now out of the deflationary risk zone although inflationary developments still remain subdued. yet, the ongoing economic upturn and the labour market improvements are expected to pave the way to increasing inflationary pressures, preparing for a return of inflation to a rate below, but close to, 2 % over the medium term. our forecast is 1. 7 % for 2020. [ slide 7 ] this gradual rise in inflation in the euro area and improvement in the outlook for inflation is due in large part to the accommodative monetary policy of the ecb. we are now increasingly confident that inflation will soon be on a sustained path of adjustment back towards our inflation aim, and so justify our course of gradual normalisation. and we won ’ t give in to fiscal dominance : nobody should expect us to delay a warranted monetary normalisation in order to accommodate the debt problems of any member state. 2. our structural acceleration : france is catching up [ slide 8 ] monetary policy plays its full role but cannot be the only game in town, as it may have only a limited impact on national economic adjustments within the euro area. since the

”. against this backdrop, the paris financial centre has many assets. paris hosts one of the most developed capital markets in continental europe, the first asset management industry, a leading bond market, the largest commercial paper market with neu - cp and the largest private equity investor in continental europe. moreover, paris offers an attractive pool of highly skilled staff in financial services. the french government and the french financial authorities, including the banque de france, are also working together to facilitating the dissemination of sound and safe financial innovations and fostering the scaling up of sustainable finance. these investments are protected by a very resilient banking system, accompanied by consistent regulation. let me remind you that paris is already home to the european securities and markets authority and will soon host the european banking authority. in addition, the paris court of appeal was granted an 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches international chamber last february, with international commercial affairs falling within its remit. that will duly complete the paris court organisation, which already includes an international chamber in its commercial court. last but not least, let me stress that the french authorities are making sure that the paris financial centre and its participants benefit from a streamlined and business - friendly regulatory framework, for instance in areas such as bond issuance and securitisation. meanwhile, significant efforts have been made by the french government to alleviate the tax regime and social contributions of “ impatriates. ” starting in 2016 under the previous government, they have been amplified by the new one, including on the eve of the business summit last january. * * * france is changing, for the better. but it is still dependent on its economic environment, obviously. let me conclude with two wishes. first : that europe is courageous enough to strengthen itself through this cyclical upswing. combining more reforms in france and more fiscal stimulus in germany, as will happen, is welcome but not sufficient : we need a stronger economic union in the euro area to avoid overburdening monetary policy by the next recession. and second, that the united states and the g20 are clear - sighted enough to address their economic challenges through multilateral answers, and not unilateral ones : here too, france is a reliable partner. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches