times. as technologies advance and digital forms of money increasingly enter the field, policymakers will not be able to remain “ on the sidelines ”. there are two sides to every coin, after all. on that note, i would like to wish you all a very pleasant and interesting evening. you still have to decide between an excellent red and an equally excellent white wine. the choice is yours. perhaps a coin toss will help. thank you. 1 deutsche bundesbank ( 2018 ), payment behaviour in germany in 2017 – fourth study of the utilisation of cash and cashless payment instruments. 2 ibid. 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches 3 deutsche bundesbank ( 2019 ), the cost of payment methods in the retail sector, monthly report, june 2019, pp. 65 – 79. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches

from existence, at least as far as transactions are concerned. none of us have a crystal ball to tell us how the match will end. but we can look at existing 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches evidence. in my brief remarks this evening, let us turn to the hypothetical question : how would the coin toss change, if one of the sides were to vanish? supply and demand factors behind cash usage ladies and gentlemen, in germany, cash remains as popular among private households as ever. if asked directly, 88 % of german households would be in favour of keeping the option of using cash for everyday transactions. 1 this generally “ cash - loving ” attitude is reflected in the data on actual cash usage. we know from our own analysis that 74 % of all point - of - sale transactions are made using banknotes and coins. 2 but this number is declining – albeit gradually and from a high level by international standards. in some countries, cash usage is already significantly lower than in germany. in principle, the declining use of cash could be driven by weakening demand. this could occur if alternative means of payment were to appeal more in relative terms to private households. we as central bankers take a neutral stance towards such a consumer - driven process. however, the declining usage of cash could also be driven by a weakening supply as the existing cash infrastructure erodes. such adjustments could stem from both private and public entities and could hamper the adequate provision of cash. the reasons for this may be complex, yet the implications would be straightforward : households would have to adjust, too. once obtaining cash simply becomes “ too cumbersome ”, switching to electronic alternatives is the rational decision, but it means less choice and it may pose several social challenges : think of ensuring financial inclusion in an ageing population. think of providing a non - electronic alternative in times of political crisis or in the event of large - scale cyber attacks. any rational decision is preceded by a cost - benefit analysis. while we may see the benefits of different payment methods, we also need to understand their underlying cost structures. we looked in a recent study at the overall transaction costs of cash compared to debit and credit card payments in the german retail sector. 3 cash did turn out to be the most cost - efficient payment instrument for retailers when accounting for cost drivers such as cash handling, fees for card payments and payment infrastructure provision. but, looking ahead, several factors need to be understood better. to name just a few : how is