assessment by financial institutions in disaster areas. it conducted the funds - supplying operation three times, with the total amount of loans to date reaching 332 billion yen. ii. economic activity and prices a. overseas economies next, i will talk about the current economic situation. overseas economies achieved robust growth from around 2005 onward, led by improved productivity in many economies, owing to the advance of globalization and increased participation of emerging economies in the global market. during this time, however, various countries experienced economic imbalances, such as the housing bubble in the united states and the investment bubble in some peripheral european countries that resulted from the stable currencies and lower interest rates following the european monetary unification. these imbalances gradually emerged as the financial market turmoil in the united states and europe, triggered by the drop in u. s. housing prices. the turmoil grew into a global financial crisis after the lehman shock in the autumn of 2008. the interaction between the financial market turmoil and economic deterioration led to the crisis of a sharp downturn in the global economy. in response, countries around the world adopted large - scale monetary and fiscal measures, and as a result, the global economy started to pick up around spring 2009. consequently, the global economy as a whole is on a recovery path, although there is a divergence between the performance of slowly recovering industrialized countries and rapidly growing emerging and commodity - exporting economies. at present, the pace of recovery is slowing. the u. s. economy is being weighed down by damaged balance sheets among households in particular, due to the bursting of the housing bubble, and also by the effects of the disaster in japan and high crude oil prices. in europe as a whole, the pace of recovery remains moderate : while the german economy is robust, the economies of some peripheral countries with troubled fiscal conditions, such as greece, are faltering. in contrast, rapid growth continues in emerging and commodity - exporting economies such as china and brazil. in some countries, however, there are signs of economic slowdowns due to monetary tightening aimed to counter inflationary pressures, and production has been sluggish due to supply shortages of parts following the earthquake in japan. as for the outlook, the global economy is expected to stay on a recovery trend ; however, the degree of uncertainty remains high because of risk factors such as a further deterioration in the fiscal conditions in some peripheral european countries, an overheating of emerging and commodity - exporting economies, and a surge in

##s are progressing ahead of japan suggest that private consumption, including that of face - to - face services, is expected to pick up again in japan. the employment and income situation, which shows the underlying developments in private consumption, has remained weak but not deteriorated significantly. the unemployment rate rose last year but subsequently has been at around 3 percent. against this background, employee income has turned positive on a year - on - year basis. it is likely to start picking up with a time lag following the recovery in domestic and external demand, and then increase moderately. in sum, an uptrend in private consumption is expected to become evident as the impact of covid - 19 wanes gradually and employee income increases. it is projected that the virtuous cycle that has started to operate in the corporate sector will spread to the household sector, thereby intensifying the cycle in the overall economy. the bank presented the projected real gdp growth rates in its outlook report released last week ( chart 4 ). what i have explained so far outlines the background of the outlook for economic activity. in terms of the medians of the policy board members'forecasts, the real gdp growth rate is projected to be relatively high at 3. 8 percent for fiscal 2021, and then be 2. 7 percent for fiscal 2022 and 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2023. this baseline scenario of the outlook for economic activity entails high uncertainties regarding the consequences of covid - 19 - - including the spread of variants - - and their impact, and thus risks are skewed to the downside for the time being. that said, there is a possibility that the vaccine rollout will accelerate and economic activity will improve by more than expected. with the global economy recovering from the depression triggered by the impact of covid - 19, international commodity prices have risen recently. attention should be paid to future developments in these prices and their impact on japan's economy. the bank will continue to closely examine developments in economic activity at home and abroad. price developments next, let me talk about price developments ( chart 5 ). the year - on - year rate of change in the consumer price index ( cpi ) excluding fresh food dropped to minus 1 percent last december, mainly reflecting a decline in energy prices and the effects of the " go to travel " campaign on price indices. however, when excluding the effects of various temporary factors, it has remained slightly positive and been steady compared with the degree of deterioration in the economy