as investors struggle to re - assess this violent turn in the wind. already snarled by supply bottlenecks, persistent high inflation and tightening financial conditions, the global economy is being dragged to the edge of a precipice. the immediate implications are expected to be lower growth, higher inflation and disruptions to financial markets. the longer - term implications are disruptions to global supply chains if physical infrastructure such as pipelines and ports are destroyed. if sanctions turn away demand, trade and investment, there could even be de - globalisation. talk of stagflation has leapfrogged into the discourse on global economic prospects. the question that is uppermost is : will monetary policy still be tightened just enough to quell persisting inflation? or will it turn out to be excessive and snuff out the global recovery? already high frequency indicators suggest that global growth is losing steam in the first quarter of 2022 with the surge and ebb of omicron. multilateral institutions expect that in the baseline scenario, the pace of global gdp growth may lose up to 2 percentage points over this year and the next. private sector estimates indicate that if the price of crude rises to $ 150 per barrel, it will knock of another 1. 6 per cent of global gdp, while raising global inflation by another 2 per cent. on one issue at least, there seems to be some certainty. although monetary policy has a predominantly domestic orientation, the effects of the imminent shift in gears will not be confined domestically. it will spill over to emerging market economies, and it will spill back to systemically important ones. it is always easier to go into accommodation than to come out. this brings back 1 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches memories of 2013 and the infamous ‘ taper tantrum ’. it also focuses the spotlight on india. in 2013, india became one of the ‘ fragile five ’ economies that were roiled by financial market turbulence and, therefore, perceived as most at risk when tapering would actually begin. the indian rupee or inr was among the worst affected currencies at that time, as foreign investors pulled out funds from emerging market economies as an asset class in anticipation of rising yields in advanced economy markets. will this time be different? in the rest of my address, i propose to deal with this vexing subject head - on by assessing global macroeconomic and financial conditions then and now, the state of the indian economy in terms of its underlying fundamentals, and

into the future – serbia expo 2027 " programme. as a result, in the next two years total investment should exceed 25 % of gdp. favourable and predictable business conditions, the quality of the workforce in serbia, as well as good digital and transport connectivity, provide the conditions for further integration of serbia into value chains with eu countries and for productivity growth. in a world of geopolitical tensions and market fragmentation, serbia is a small economy that can attract investments from all corners of the world, which will also have positive effects on our further growth and development. in conclusion, but no less important, our further progress in the process of european integration, in line with the findings of the imf's analysis, should result in mutual benefits in the form of income growth. the benefit for serbia comes from advancing the structural reform agenda, further strengthening of institutions, and the transfer of knowledge and technologies, while the eu benefits through the additional opening of the single market for goods, capital, and labour. so, let me repeat, we are talking about significant potential for mutual benefits. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches thank you for your attention. i now give the floor to mr ratnovski to guide us through today's event. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches