kingdom also pose another major challenge to the functioning of the single market. situation of the spanish economy let me now move on to the spanish economy. the strength of the recovery is proving notable. on the latest estimates, our gdp is estimated to have grown by around 3. 1 % in 2017, that is to say, similar growth to that in 2015 and 2016 ; for the third year running, the growth of our economy is expected to have clearly exceeded that observed for the euro area as a whole. indeed, last year we regained the level, in real terms, of our pre - crisis gdp. there are two key features of this recovery. firstly, it is proving to be most job creationintensive. however, we are still far from attaining the employment levels prior to 2008. the second notable feature is that our recovery, which has been intense and prolonged, is proving compatible with the correction of the imbalances that emerged in the years running up to the crisis ; in particular, it is proving compatible with the maintenance of a substantially positive external balance. 4 / 6 in 2017 we posted a current account balance of around 2 % of gdp, a figure not far removed from that observed in the four preceding years. admittedly, transitory or temporary factors – such as low oil prices and low interest rates, for instance – have exerted an influence on this surplus ; but largely it is due to gains in external competitiveness and also to the reduction in the economy ’ s financing costs, a development in which the eurosystem ’ s monetary policy has played a crucial role, as have the structural reforms made since 2011. outlook on the latest banco de espana projections, which we published last december, the current upturn may be prolonged over the coming years with significant growth in activity and employment, albeit at lower rates than those observed in the last three years. this moderation in the increase in activity would be firstly attributable to the lesser momentum of demand - side policies. specifically, we expect the impulse derived from fiscal and monetary policy to be lower, as well as lower growth of private consumption compared with that in recent years. as regards gross capital formation, investment in housing will be spurred by the generation of employment and the availability of low - cost financing. this latter factor will also be conducive to business investment, further to the far - reaching clean - up of corporate balance sheets in recent years. with respect to external demand, exports may be expected to continue out

##growing the rate of expansion of the very markets on which they are targeted, which reflects the gains in competitiveness i referred to earlier. but i believe mention should also be made of a structural change, namely the most notable growth in the number of spanish companies permanently – not just occasionally – orienting their activity towards foreign markets, without forgetting the gains in market share in their domestic markets, as gains in competitiveness enable firms to compete better not only abroad but also, obviously, in the domestic market against imports. risks the spanish economy has moved into 2018 on the back, we may say, of significant expansionary inertia. on the external front, and in europe as a whole, we do not yet know and it is not easy to estimate the impact that the united kingdom ’ s exit from the european union may have, the impulses that the protectionist policies in various countries are prompting and the effects that may stem from the re - balancing of the chinese economy. in the financial domain, the valuations of certain assets in some jurisdictions and segments of the capital markets have increased most markedly, suggesting that there has been an increase in the risk of there being corrections in the coming years potentially affecting financial stability. i would also like to refer to the economic risks posed by the political situation in catalonia. in our financial stability report, published early last november, the banco de espana estimated a range for the economic impact of the tensions in catalonia drawing basically on assumptions about their duration and intensity. the conjunctural information for the final 5 / 6 quarter of 2017 indicates that economic activity is expected to have slowed in catalonia in the closing months of the year to a greater extent than in the other main regions with the greater gdp ; at the same time, it seems clear that the application of article 155 of the constitution has contributed to easing economic tensions, as shown by recent developments on financial markets, where a correction has been observed in the higher volatility and more negative dynamics that stock markets and the spanish sovereign debt risk premium had experienced in the opening weeks of october. indeed, the risk premium stood today below 85 basis points relative to the german benchmark, the lowest level since 2010, following the upgrade announced by a rating agency. if in the coming months we achieve normalisation, understanding by normalisation a situation in which political agents act with a real observance of our entire legal framework to the letter, and i would stress real observance, that would very likely lead to a