, despite this, we still see labour market conditions tightening further. surveying a range of indicators reveals mixed evidence as to the extent of current overheating pressures. investment in the real economy remains well below its previous peak. 9 overall credit growth is subdued as households continue to reduce their debts. the modified current account of the balance of payments – an important indicator of imbalance – recorded a small surplus in the most recent data. 10 while these measures are not indicative of significant overheating pressures currently, past episodes demonstrate that the position can change quickly. as the economy moves closer to full employment, there is a need to guard against the risk that economic conditions give rise to 4 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches overheating dynamics. to date, the tightening of the labour market has not been accompanied by significant evidence of strong wage or price pressures. however, further increases in aggregate demand may lead to overheating in the economy. financial system resilience and macroprudential policy so, we find ourselves in the interesting position of considering a potential slowdown in the international environment and the uk leaving the eu. and at the same time, also worrying about potential overheating from a domestic perspective. the potential for a wide range of future outcomes, and associated uncertainty, is indeed challenging. to guard against these risks, we need to build resilience. resilience in households, resilience in businesses, resilience in the public finances and resilience in the financial system. this is important to withstand future downturns. if buffers are built up during the good times, policy can react during a downturn. counter - cyclical policy therefore offers a way to moderate the effects of downturns, supporting demand in the economy when necessary. however, the ability to implement counter - cyclical policy relies crucially on taking advantage of positive growth periods to build the buffers. given our continued strong growth right now, reducing ireland ’ s high debt to safer levels should remain a priority – both in order to protect the public finances in the face of risks and to lay the foundations for sustainable future growth. ireland ’ s debt - to - gni11 ratio remains elevated and above 100 per cent. reducing the debt burden is vital to future - proofing the economy to weather possible shocks. the unpredictability of corporate tax revenues in recent years points to the dangers of relying on what might prove to be a partly transitory surge in revenues to fund lasting

and outlook given i have the opportunity to speak to the iiea and given the timeliness of this speech following the announcement of yesterday ’ s monetary policy measures, i will begin by focusing on the euro 1 / 8 bis central bankers'speeches area and global economic outlook. just yesterday, i returned from a meeting of the governing council of the european central bank. a key concern of the council was uncertainty. specifically, the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism appear to be leaving marks on economic sentiment. on account of this, the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are still tilted to the downside. incoming data have continued to be weak, in particular in the manufacturing sector, reflecting the slowdown in external demand compounded by some country and sector - specific factors. the impact of these factors is turning out to be somewhat longer - lasting, which suggests that the near - term growth outlook will be weaker than previously anticipated. this assessment is broadly reflected in the march 2019 ecb staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. these projections foresee annual real gdp increasing by 1. 1 % in 2019, 1. 6 % in 2020 and 1. 5 % in 2021. compared with the december 2018 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real gdp growth has been revised down substantially in 2019 and slightly in 2020. ireland ’ s trade and financial openness is a fundamental structural characteristic of the economy. this is most evident from the familiar multinational brands headquartered here. the irish economy is highly integrated with the international economy, both in terms of trade and with global financial markets, and particularly with regard to cross - border capital flows. over recent decades, ireland has benefited very positively from developments in the global economy and the move toward high value, low volume trade. this has provided many benefits in terms of revenue and employment. for example, multinationals are estimated to account for 22 per cent of total employment. 3 however, this means structural shocks emanating from abroad can have an important bearing on the performance of the economy. these can include changes in global trade or international taxation regimes. indeed, the structure of ireland ’ s economy means that it can even be affected by idiosyncratic shocks facing individual sectors or firms operating here. whilst providing many positives, this openness therefore also increases the propensity – and sensitivity – of the irish economy to global shocks – be they structural shocks i just described, or cyclical – driven by