the ppv fare increase, which is scheduled to take effect in april 2024. without the impact of this 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches second increase in ppv fares, inflation at december 2024 would fall within the target range. whilst some key drivers of headline inflation, such as inflation expectations and the exchange rate, have remained generally stable and grains prices have declined and are projected to continue to fall, the risks to the inflation outlook remain elevated. on the upside, higher than projected second - round effects from the ppv fare increases, higher wage adjustments in the context of a tight labour market and a further deterioration in supply chain conditions could influence higher inflation. in particular, while shipping prices and oil prices have remained below their peak, they have recently risen amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. the factors that could lead to lower - than - projected inflation include weaker - than - projected global growth, which could reduce domestic demand and imported inflation, resulting in lower rates of price change. in the context of the inflation outturn and outlook, the mpc decided to maintain : ( i ) the policy interest rate ( the rate offered to deposit - taking institutions ( dtis ) on overnight placements with bank of jamaica ) at 7. 0 per cent ; and ( ii ) relative stability in the foreign exchange market. the mpc, however, decided to tighten jamaica dollar liquidity conditions more aggressively. the committee also decided to maintain heightened surveillance of these risks to the inflation outlook and will base its future monetary policy decisions on the incoming data related to the strength of the potential risks to inflation noted above. let me now look at the foreign exchange market. foreign exchange market the foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable, reflecting continued strong tourism and remittance flows as well as the effect of the actions taken by the bank. to prevent undue volatility in the foreign exchange market, boj has sold approximately us $ 907 million via its b - fxitt facility over the 12 months to end - january 2024. when these sales are set against boj purchases, however, the result is that the bank net purchased approximately us $ 1. 3 billion over the period. in the context of the stability in the exchange rate, the general downward trend in dollarization has continued, with individuals and businesses reflecting an increased preference to hold jamaican dollars. update and outlook for the jamaican economy i will now give a brief update on the jamaican economy. real gdp, which

recorded an increase of 7. 8 per cent for the 12 - month period ending in february 2011. headline inflation for the month of february was minus 0. 4 per cent. with january ’ s decline of 0. 2 per cent, inflation for the 11 months of the fiscal year - to - date is 6. 7 per cent. it is now quite clear that the target for fiscal year 2010 / 11 is likely to be comfortably achieved. at the same time, there was a weaker than projected performance of the economy in terms of gdp growth last year. this came in the context of adverse local and international weather conditions ( tropical storm nicole, ash clouds in europe ) and the temporary fall - out that the economy experienced, particularly the tourism sector, from the disturbance in west kingston in may. however, looking forward to the next 12 months, it is expected that with lower interest rates and an abundance of credit resources there will be an increase in investments in the productive sectors of the economy. in this regard, the central bank is projecting gradual recovery in the coming fiscal year with gdp growth expected to be in the range of 1. 0 to 2. 0 per cent. the initiatives being spearheaded by the planning institute of jamaica to identify and synchronize high impact projects that enhance inner city communities, improve the economic infrastructure and protect the environment should result in a further acceleration of growth as they come on stream. ladies and gentlemen, interest rates in the money market are now at the lowest we have seen in several decades. this is not a phenomenon to pass over lightly. it has no doubt been brought about in part by the confidence exhibited by the multilateral financial institutions in jamaica ’ s economic programme, a confidence that has been affirmed by the credit rating agencies. of greater significance, confidence in the country ’ s economic prospects has been demonstrated by the willingness of local investors to accept lower and lower rates on their investments. foreign investors have also shared this optimism by their overwhelming participation in the global bond that was offered in february. with the policies that were undertaken in 2010, jamaica is being set firmly on a path for sustainable growth and development. the on - going reforms in the financial sector will further increase its stability and soundness. stable financial markets will reassure investors about the safety of their investments. ladies and gentlemen, fiscal year 2011 / 12 is set to be a year of accelerated progress and i urge you to be a part of the change. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches