it is daily observations of the bloomberg benchmark 20 year gilt. chart 2 : investment grade corporate yields have also moved lower in recent years per cent source : merrill lynch chart shows the nominal yield on the average uk corporate bond with a maturity of more than 18 months. the average maturity is typically 10 - 12 years. bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 3 : market implied measures of long - term inflation expectations have been stable per cent 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 - 1 20 - year average ( rpi ) inflation rate implied by comparing the yield on nominal and index - linked gilts headline cpi inflation source : ons and bank calculations chart 4 : unit wage cost growth has not returned to pre - crisis rates unit wage costs year on year growth ( % ) - 1 - 2 source : ons and bank calculations. unit wage cost defined as whole economy awe divided gdp per worker bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 5 : companies ’ investment intentions are above average differences from averages since 2000 ( number of standard deviations ) cbi - 1 bcc - 2 - 3 - 4 source : bank of england, bcc, cbi, cbi / pwc and bank calculations chart 6 : corporates are increasing the amount that they invest relative to the amount that they save £ millions - 5000 - 10000 - 15000 - 20000 private non financial corporates financial balance source : ons bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 7 : the 10 year real rate beginning in 10 years is very low by historical standards per cent - 1 - 2 source : bank of england chart 8 : the availability of credit to firms has improved oct dec aug dec jun sep dec mar jun sep dec mar small medium large overall these cells indicate bank ’ s agents ’ national assessments of corporate credit availability. the greater the intensity of red, the tighter credit availability ; the greater the intensity of green, the looser credit availability. yellow indicates normal conditions. includes bank and non - bank credit. bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 9 : term premia have been a significant driver of the decline in yields change in expected policy rates change in term premia change in nominal interest rates basis - 10 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 - 60 - 70 - 80 - 90 uk source : bank calculations chart shows estimates of contribution to change in 10 - year government bond yields between end july 2014 and end april 2015. derived using the model described in malik, s and meldrum a chart 10 : central banks will purchase around $ 125

emphasises that this slowdown in innovation will be one contributing factor to a generalised slowdown in growth that is also driven by demography, educational attainment, inequality and a public sector debt overhang. see mokyr ( 2014 ) for the optimists ’ case see mckinsey ( 2013 ) for an outline of the potential of these and other technologies bis central bankers ’ speeches because they are by their nature unobservable, term premia must be estimated. chart 9 shows one estimate of the effect of term premia on uk government bond yields over the period since august of last year, using a technique based on that of adrian, crump and moench ( 2013 ). more information about how these estimates are arrived at will soon be available on the bank ’ s forthcoming staff blog, but the main message is that over this period term premia were a big driver of the move lower in yields. there are several potential practical developments that one could attach to declining uk term premia. one that has featured heavily in our market intelligence gathering is spillovers from international monetary policy actions. 17 in august of last year, financial markets began to anticipate that the european central bank ( ecb ) would embark on a programme of asset purchases, and it has subsequently announced that it intends to expand its balance sheet by €1trn over the coming 18 months. of course this action is not exogenous – it is itself a reflection of the headwinds facing the euro area economy. between the ecb and the bank of japan ( which is continuing its programme of qualitative and quantitative easing announced in early 2013 ), central banks will purchase the equivalent of around $ 125bn worth of assets per month between now and september 2016 ( chart 10 ). you could say that the quantitative easing baton has been passed from the uk and us to the ecb and boj. that these large flows ( or the anticipation of them ) would have spillover effects on borrowing rates in the uk should not be a surprise. the ecb and the boj purchases will be equivalent in value to all of the net issuance by advanced economy governments over the next 18 months. and given that uk government bonds and other government bonds are ( to varying degrees ) substitutes, it is natural to expect their prices to co - move – in much the same way that if the ecb were to buy $ 1trn of eurozone butter we might expect the price of british margar