framework by producing a detailed monetary policy report, similar to those issued by many central banks around the world. one aspect of such a report could highlight the policy paths implied by a few taylor - like or robust rules and use them as benchmarks to set and communicate policy in a more systematic, rule - like way. i will begin with a brief overview of my thoughts about the economy and the fomc ’ s most recent policy decisions before i discuss the role that systematic policy can play in the communication of policy. the economy and the recent policy decision first, the economy. my overall view of the economy is fairly optimistic. after a first quarter buffeted by winter storms, i believe we are poised to grow at a rate somewhat above trend bis central bankers ’ speeches for the remainder of this year and next before reverting back to trend, which i see as about 2. 4 percent. steady employment growth and healthier household balance sheets will support consumption activity. the current data suggest economic strength is fairly broad based, as evidenced by recent indicators and the optimism expressed by firms in both the manufacturing and service sectors. as for inflation, recent readings have moved a bit higher, mitigating somewhat the concerns that low inflation will persist or decline further. we have ample monetary accommodation in the economy to ensure that we will be able to achieve our 2 percent target over time. it is important, however, that we continue to reinforce our commitment to that goal so that inflation expectations remain well anchored near our target. at the meeting last week, the fomc released its latest summary of economic projections ( sep ). the outlook going forward was largely unchanged. while real gdp growth for 2014 was marked down, which reflected the disappointing first quarter, the outlook for the second half of the year and the projections for 2015 and 2016 were unchanged. unemployment projections were reduced slightly, and the inflation forecast remained stable. my own submission for economic growth was generally in line with my colleagues. but my forecast for unemployment was a bit lower in the near term. specifically, i think the unemployment rate may reach 5. 8 percent by the end of this year and 5. 6 percent by the end of 2015. my view of inflation is that it will stabilize at about 2 percent in 2015. some market participants and commentators have focused on the so - called dot charts and the movement of the implied median funds rate for 2014 – 16. i would remind everyone that the dots are not a forecast of what policymakers think the committee will

quarters that the unemployment rate will move back up significantly when these discouraged workers reenter the labor force. based on research by my staff, i am less concerned about this possibility. 1 first, it is important to realize that labor force participation rates can decline for reasons other than a rise in discouraged workers. indeed, we have seen steadily declining participation rates since 2000 that reflect demographic changes, most notably the aging of the baby boomers. this trend is continuing and has long been expected to accelerate. second, detailed analysis of the current population survey ’ s micro data indicates that about three - quarters of the decline in participation since the start of the recession in december 2007 can be accounted for by increased retirements and movements into disability. some of shigeru fujita, “ on the causes of declines in the labor force participation rate, ” research rap special report, federal reserve bank of philadelphia, february 6, 2014. bis central bankers ’ speeches these increases might have been driven by the state of the economy. for example, some baby boomers may have moved their retirement decision forward after losing a job. nevertheless, few of these individuals are likely to reenter the labor force. so, while i do expect some discouraged workers to reenter the labor force as the economy improves, i still believe the overall unemployment rate remains a good summary statistic of labor market conditions. the business sector is also entering the year on a positive note. at the national level, manufacturing activity accelerated over the final three months of 2013. the philadelphia fed ’ s business outlook survey of regional manufacturing, which is a reliable indicator of national manufacturing trends, also showed that manufacturing activity picked up in the second half of 2013. in january, the survey ’ s general activity index posted its eighth consecutive positive number. expectations for manufacturing activity six months ahead also remained positive. this gives me some hope that business fixed investment, which has been generally lackluster during the course of the recovery, will pick up somewhat this year. indeed, we saw a nice rebound in equipment spending in the fourth quarter. inflation has been running below the fomc ’ s long - run goal of 2 percent. the fed ’ s preferred measure of inflation is the year - over - year change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or pce inflation. it came in at 1. 1 percent last year. it is important to defend our 2 percent inflation target from both below and above. but i believe inflation is likely to move up. economic growth is