newly created exporting firms. i ’ m sure i don ’ t have to remind this audience that many firms were wiped out in the crisis. normally, as the economy gets back to full capacity, the overall population of businesses picks up and more firms enter the export markets, creating new products, new services and, most importantly, new jobs. unfortunately, company population growth has been very bis central bankers ’ speeches sluggish since 2008, and preliminary data indicate this population did not increase at all in 2013. the ingredients are in place, however, so we remain hopeful that this process will resume in 2014 – 15. all things considered, then, we are cautiously optimistic about our exporting future. it will take more than a few months to establish a trend, and then still longer for it to translate into more investment and hiring by companies, but it looks like the natural sequence we ’ ve been hoping for is getting under way. conclusion let me sum up. it is simply not possible to have a fulsome discussion of the outlook for canada ’ s inflation rate and our monetary policy without an understanding of the effects the exchange rate is having on the economy. but trying to control the loonie is off the table, as far as we are concerned at the bank of canada. a floating loon is a thing of beauty, and so is a floating loonie, at least from this economist ’ s perspective. our job is to understand the context, and adjust short - term interest rates to meet our inflation target. that job is tough enough. it is the job of the market to watch the economic data unfold and grind out the implications for other financial markets, including the exchange rate, on a daily basis. that, too, is a tough job, but it is not ours. the fact is, the bank can ’ t do its job well unless the market does its job well, and vice versa. and the bank has been working to bring more transparency to the various elements of uncertainty that have been making its job more difficult, and this additional transparency is helping the market do a better job. and all that is more than just talk – it means that business people like you can do a good job, too. bis central bankers ’ speeches

along the way, there will be a gradual reduction in our financial stability risks, such as household imbalances. this is a natural sequence that we will monitor carefully. its starting point, and the most critical ingredient, is a substantial recovery in exports. where will that critical revival of exports come from? well, energy exports are already leading the way. this is the main source of natural growth in our economy today – new energy exports, new investment, new jobs. furthermore, higher oil prices are boosting incomes across the entire country, and that creates jobs, too. but growth in energy exports alone cannot make up for the loss of exports we have experienced since the crisis. non - energy exports also will contribute, but they have been very sluggish for several years, at least until recently. after a weak start to the year, there has been a surge in non - energy exports in the past few months. about half of this rebound was weather - related, as exports were delayed during the winter. but underneath these fluctuations we are starting to see some early signs of recovery. the fact is, though, that the global economy remains an uncertain place and, as forecasters, we are wary of the serial disappointment it has delivered us in recent years. europe is obviously the biggest question mark. nonetheless, the u. s. economy appears to be back on track and is now showing signs of higher investment spending, which is usually associated with stronger exports of canadian machinery and equipment, packaging materials, industrial materials, and business services. many of these sectors are also sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, so the lower dollar is providing an additional boost to foreign sales. certainly, we should expect to see our forecast coming true right here in drummondville, as this has always been an export - intensive part of the country. companies here are investing to diversify their product lines and their customer bases and are positioning themselves for new growth. we now see the region ’ s traditional focus on textiles and furniture giving way to a broad range of technical, value - added manufacturing in machinery and equipment, building and packaging materials, and plastic and rubber products – some of the very sectors we expect to see leading our export recovery. nevertheless, some other export sectors have been struggling since well before the financial crisis. for them, the restructuring road is proving long and difficult, so some of the lost ground may only be made up over an extended period of time. we can also expect to see brand - new export activity from