in 2006 to 45, 5 per cent in 2011. as of 2011, 32, 3 per cent of the population were living below the national planning commission ’ s lower bound poverty line, compared with 42, 2 per cent in 2006. the gini coefficient, which reflects income inequalities remains high but declined from 0, 72 to 0, 69. the focus on economic infrastructure expenditure in the ndp is key. the recent government budget provides for capital expenditure by the major state - owned companies of almost r400 billon to be spent on infrastructure during the coming three years, the bulk of this on electricity and transport infrastructure. this should have a positive impact not only on current growth during the build phases, but also on future growth as infrastructure bottlenecks are eased. the investment outlook from the government and state - owned enterprises therefore looks positive, and should help with the crowding in of private sector investment. we are also seeing favourable signs in the construction sector, particularly in civil construction. the outlook for private sector fixed investment is also more positive, despite relatively low levels of business confidence. having been relatively subdued during the past few years, growth in gross fixed capital formation by the private sector increased from 3, 9 per cent in 2012 to 5, 5 per cent in 2013. part of this increase was related to green energy investment. this indicates that if the near - term constraints can be eased and business confidence improves, there is scope for further growth in fixed investment, and this could allow for a rotation away from consumption expenditure towards investment as the main driver of growth. in 2013, the contribution of consumption expenditure to gdp growth had declined to 1, 7 percentage point, compared with 2, 3 in the 2012, while the contribution of gross fixed capital formation was unchanged at 0, 9 percentage points. in contrast to the mining sector, the manufacturing sector also shows tentative signs of having turned the corner following particular strike - related challenges during 2013, particularly in the motor vehicle sector. the manufacturing pmi had been below the neutral level of 50 index points for the second half of 2013 and early 2014, has now returned to above 50. we are hopeful that these green shoots will lead to a sustained recovery in the sector amid a recovery in motor vehicle exports in particular. there are also significant opportunities for south africa at the regional level. according to the latest world economic outlook, economic growth in sub - saharan africa is expected to average 6, 1 per cent in 2014 and 5, 8 per cent in 2015

commencement of tapering in september did not occur, and markets overscrutinised every bit of data coming out of the us for possible indications of the start of the process. an extremely volatile period of “ risk on ” and “ risk off ” episodes ensued, particularly for those countries that had been the previous beneficiaries of the capital inflows. indications of slowing employment growth in the us were seen as good news for emerging markets, as it implied a delay of either tapering or normalisation. as a result, emerging market exchange rates, including the rand, experienced a high degree of volatility in the face of these changing flows. as shown in a recent paper by eichengreen and gupta, the countries most affected were those with large current account deficits and those with relatively large and liquid financial markets which allowed for investors to be better able to rebalance their portfolios. the issue was further complicated by the fact that the markets initially conflated tapering, which related to the slowdown of fed asset purchases, with monetary policy tightening or normalisation of short - term policy rates. it appears now that the financial markets generally accept that tapering by the us fed will proceed at a steady pace. however, the next phase of normalisation, that of the timing and extent of the us policy rate cycle, is now the subject of intense speculation. already we have seen the market reaction to the fed statements following the most recent fomc meeting, bis central bankers ’ speeches when there were indications that the timing of the first policy rate adjustment may occur sooner than previously believed. there is little doubt that this process will not proceed in a linear fashion : the outlook for the coming interest rate cycle is likely to keep changing and be affected by the ebbs and flows of data coming out of the us. the outlook may also be complicated by the monetary policy exit strategies of the uk, japan and the ongoing challenges faced by the eurozone. while emerging markets, including south africa, are likely to experience periods of relative stability, as is the case at the moment, we do expect volatile periods ahead. thus while a sustained recovery in the us is critical to ending the global financial crisis, and is good news, in the short run it introduces increased risks and volatility with consequences for growth, capital outflows, commodity prices, exchange rate depreciation and inflation in many emerging markets. but this volatile global financial market environment is not the only challenge facing us