john c williams : finding balance in the economy remarks by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the economic club of new york, new york city, 30 may 2024. * * * as prepared for delivery introduction i'm honored to be here today among so many economic club of new york members, fellows, students, and staff. the club has the privilege of hosting incredible speakers, but it's our members who truly create the robust, dynamic environment for our discussions. thank you for being part of this wonderful organization. as i look ahead to the end of my term as club chair, i'd like to thank my predecessor in this role, marie - josee kravis ; our board members ; our tireless president and ceo, barbara van allen ; and the small yet remarkably productive staff of the club. when i began my term as chair back in june of 2020, the ecny was strong and vibrant, all thanks to their vision, commitment, and hard work. at the same time, 2020 was a period of tremendous uncertainty for the ecny. after all, our hallmark was in - person events. with the onset of the pandemic, we needed to reinvent what it meant to be the ecny in very short order. we all quickly came together and innovated to an incredible degree so that we could reach our members in new ways. zoom became our meeting room, and we later found success in hybrid events. we launched new programs, including a series focused on diversity, equity, and inclusion, the innovation and social impact challenge, and the podcast. and we did it while maintaining the financial strength of the club. here is one statistic that captures the dramatic evolution of the club. over the past four years, we held 100 events, or 25 per year, on average. that compares to 660 events in the prior 113 years, or about six per year. that's over a 300 percent increase in productivity! there are many exciting things planned for the future, and i look forward to watching the club evolve and prosper in the years to come. for today's discussion, i'll transition away from my role as ecny chair and back to my job as president of the new york fed. i'll spend some time focusing on how the federal reserve is working to achieve both maximum employment and price stability. i'll also discuss the progress we've seen

our objectives. in terms of my forecast for the economy, i expect gdp growth this year to be between 2 and 2 - 1 / 2 percent. i expect the unemployment rate to be about 4 percent at the end of this year, and then move gradually down to its longer - run level of 3 - 3 / 4 percent thereafter. as the growth of economic activity gradually slows and demand and supply continue to come into better balance, i expect overall pce inflation to moderate to about 2 - 1 / 2 percent this year, before moving closer to 2 percent next year. it goes without saying that the outlook is uncertain. the risks are two - sided, with geopolitical events and china's growth outlook prominent examples. because of this, we will continue to keep an eye on the totality of the data, so that we make policy decisions that ensure that we get inflation sustainably back to 2 percent while maintaining a strong labor market. conclusion i'll close with this. we have seen a great deal of progress toward our goals over the past two years. i am confident that we will restore price stability and set the stage for sustained economic prosperity. we are committed to getting the job done. 1 for a discussion of the importance of job switchers for aggregate wage dynamics see fatih karahan, ryan michaels, benjamin pugsley, ayegul ahin, " do job - to - job transitions drive wage fluctuations over the business cycle?, " american economic review, 107 : 5 ( may 2017 ) : pp. 353 – 57. 2 martin almuzara, babur kocaoglu, and argia sbordone, " is the recent inflationary spike a global phenomenon?, " federal reserve bank of new york liberty street economics, may 16, 2024. 3 federal reserve bank of new york, multivariate core trend inflation ( march 2024 update ). 4 federal reserve bank of new york, survey of consumer expectations ( april 2024 survey ). 5 federal reserve bank of new york, global supply chain pressure index ( april 2024 update ). 4 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches 6 jaison r. abel and richard deitz, " supply chain disruptions have eased, but remain a concern, " federal reserve bank of new york liberty street economics, may 20, 2024. 7 board of governors of the federal reserve system, federal reserve issues fomc statement, may 1, 2024. 5 / 5