recession and then to compare this decrease with other, similar episodes in canada, or elsewhere. child ’ s play, you might think. this could be the first approach that our descendants – future economists, yet to be born, with no inkling of what we just lived through – would take : to study and compare economic cycles in canada. examining the economy from this angle, they would observe that the recession of 2007 – 09 did not seem to be any more serious than previous recessions in canada and that, in fact, it was much shorter ( chart 1 ). the behaviour of employment would m. dao et p. loungani ( 2010 ), “ the human cost of recessions : assessing it, reducing it, ” imf staff position note no. spn / 10 / 17, international monetary fund, 11 november. with the publication of the national accounts for the first quarter of 2011, scheduled for 30 may, statistics canada will begin a historical review of the past four years. bis central bankers ’ speeches seem to confirm such a diagnosis : employment losses were much less serious and, compared with other recessions of the past 30 years, jobs were regained much sooner ( chart 2 ) but any diagnosis based on a narrow, mechanistic reading of statistical measures of economic activity could prove to be false, or at the very least, incomplete. if our descendants were open - minded enough, they might be led to examine some of the headlines from this time : « l ’ economie canadienne paralysee », la presse, le 31 mai 2008 “ a financial drama with no final act in sight, ” new york times, 14 september 2008 « nous sommes au milieu d ’ une crise grave », le droit, le 25 septembre 2008 “ it couldn ’ t get worse, but it did, ” new york times, 12 october 2008 « l ’ economie canadienne s ’ atrophie encore », la presse affaires, le 2 mars 2009 « nous etions au bord de la catastrophe, » le devoir, le 18 juillet 2009 on the basis of their preliminary diagnosis, our descendants might wonder what all the fuss was about. let us hope, however, that curiosity spurs these future economists on to further inquiry. behind this first impression hides a much more complex reality. canada ’ s economy weathered a very violent storm, but thanks to wise precautions and appropriate navigation,

jean boivin : the “ great ” recession in canada – perception vs reality remarks by mr jean boivin, deputy governor of the bank of canada, at the montreal chartered financial analyst ( cfa ) society, montreal, 28 march 2011. * * * introduction i am very pleased to be able to deliver this speech today to the montreal cfa society – my first speech in quebec as a deputy governor of the bank of canada. as active stakeholders in the quebec and canadian economies, you are at the centre of the economic life of the country. thus, i don ’ t have to tell you that the past few years have been challenging. barely three years ago, the financial crisis was a source of major concern worldwide. this unprecedented event had serious and costly repercussions, which we continue to feel today. in the aftermath of the crisis, the global economy entered a recession that we can rightly characterize as “ great. ” economic activity in the g - 7 countries dropped by more than 5 per cent. according to the international monetary fund ( imf ), the number of unemployed persons around the world jumped by more than 30 million, most of them from advanced economies. 1 this is a striking figure, especially when we think of it as almost equal to the entire population of canada. the canadian economy was not spared : it still faces major difficulties, and significant risks remain on the road ahead. yet, it is also true that the country ’ s economic prospects have improved since the crisis, as we see in montreal, which has enjoyed the strongest growth among canadian urban centres. in fact, coming out of the recession, canada is a leader among the g - 7 countries. employment and economic activity have surpassed their prerecession levels. in light of the progress we have made, we can now ask : what was the real extent of this recession? what are the lessons to be learned, and what are the implications for the future? the purpose of my speech today is to reflect on events that are still fresh in our minds. let us remember, however, that the answers to these questions will become clearer over time, as new data and analysis become available. 2 the recession : first impressions at first glance, the answers seem simple. after all, a recession is defined as a generalized and sustained decrease of economic activity, of which the broadest measure available is gdp. it would then appear that our task is simply to measure the extent of the decrease in gdp during the most recent