rate will be set. it may be the case that as a result of the recent turmoil there has been more of a need than usual that the riksbank comments on the course of events, without anticipating the interest rate decision. assessing monetary policy now let us look back and discuss the material for assessing monetary policy, which came about on the initiative of the committee on finance. it is for me quite special this time. this is the first occasion on which the material for assessing monetary policy actually covers decisions that i have been party to. i do not intend to say a great deal about any conclusions in the material in this brief introduction. the point is that it is the committee on finance that assesses us. however, i would like to raise several issues of principle about assessment in general and about assessing monetary policy in particular. these issues have in various ways left their mark on the formulation of the material. for several reasons, it is important that we are assessed. as i mentioned earlier, one reason is that we become more efficient and develop our work methods. monetary policy acts with a lag and must therefore be based on forecasts. if we are to be as proficient as possible in forecasting future developments then we must continuously take heed and incorporate new knowledge, both new theories and everything else that is happening in the economy “ right now ”. one might say that it is similar to navigating with a nautical chart that is continuously being redrawn a bit. but it is not enough to have the latest shipping forecast and an up - todate chart in order to be a skilful skipper. in order to learn just how much the rudder needs to be adjusted in rough seas, one has to learn from experience. hopefully, one becomes more skilful at maintaining one ’ s course each time one has to parry. and, for monetary policy to be as efficient as possible, we must, in the same way, learn from past events. another reason concerns our role as an independent authority. it presupposes that the general public has ample opportunity to insight into our activities and that we are regularly examined. so assessment is important to us – both from an efficiency perspective and a democratic perspective. however, for the assessment to meet these purposes, there are a couple of factors to be taken into account. what can monetary policy achieve? to begin with, the demands – the actual base for the assessment – should be founded on what monetary policy can actually achieve. monetary policy

of great significance for sweden. financial market developments during the summer have not entirely been in line with expectations. equity price developments have been relatively weak. both short - term and long - term interest rates have accordingly been weaker than we anticipated. the cause of this weaker development in interest rates has been uncertainty, primarily about the strength of the us economic upswing and the effect of the high oil price on global growth. however, the uncertainty seems again to have diminished somewhat recently, partly as a result of more robust labour market data in the united states. this has led to a recovery in the stock market. when the riksbank in its inflation reports looks ahead a couple of years, it is important not to be too influenced by the recent weeks ’ movements in the financial markets, but rather to stick to our fundamental, longer - term assessment of economic developments. as long as we don ’ t markedly change our view of future economic prospects and the inflation outlook, there is, in my opinion, neither any reason to change the view from the early summer of future financial conditions. interest rates today are low in an historical perspective and they can be expected to rise somewhat as global resource utilisation picks up. at the same time, the krona should appreciate somewhat, partly due to the continued substantial surpluses in sweden ’ s trade with other countries. the oil price and monetary policy in may, the riksbank forecast international inflation to increase during the year, primarily as a result of rising global resource utilisation. developments since then point to a somewhat stronger rise in prices than expected. to some extent this is due to the unexpectedly high price of oil. a couple of weeks ago the oil price reached record - high levels and is today roughly as high as during the oil crisis in1979 - 80. an unexpectedly steep increase in global demand for oil, not least from the rapidly growing chinese economy, seems to have been a significant driving force behind the rise in the oil price in 2004. this has led to a marked decrease in the idle capacity in the oil sector. other relevant factors include unease over the situation in the middle east and the various circumstances surrounding the russian company yukos. the rapid, short - term changes that have characterised the price formation in the oil market also point to a not insignificant element of speculation. exactly what weight should be attributed to different factors from time to time is difficult to establish. but it is clear that the overall price rise in 2004 has been demand - driven to