most recently, in january, to 0. 5 per cent. this latter revision was particularly sharp, and if correct would represent the slowest global growth rate since world war ii. the situation in advanced economies is actually worse as, within these global growth projections, the significant downward revisions to growth in the advanced economies, which are expected to contract this year by 2 per cent, are balanced by relatively better performance in emerging markets. these exceptionally unfavourable global economic and financial conditions are making our own already very difficult domestic economic situation worse. ireland is now experiencing an unprecedented contraction in output, which is set to persist this year and next. while the initial downturn in activity was driven by the sharp decline in the irish property and construction sectors, this has now broadened out into a marked weakening of domestic demand, which is being significantly amplified by the contraction in export demand as a result of the movement into recession of all our main trading partners. reflecting the scale and speed of developments, irish economic performance has deteriorated markedly – the contraction in activity has deepened significantly, there has been a sharp rise in unemployment and a rapid deterioration in the fiscal position. with the global recession deepening and domestic demand exceptionally weak, the overall outlook for growth has continued to deteriorate in recent months. based on what is currently known, our latest unpublished estimates suggest that gdp will fall by over 6 per cent this year, with a broadly similar fall likely in the level of employment. this is likely to result in an unemployment rate averaging over 11 per cent for the year. however, risks to this outlook remain to the downside. no one should be in any doubt about the seriousness of the global situation, which is not easing, and the seriousness of our own difficulties. we face significant challenges and it is critical for present and future generations that we work together now to confront them. if we do so, our economy will recover and has the potential to grow solidly again in the medium term. our economy ’ s strengths are important in this respect. we still have favourable demographic trends, there is the capacity for a rebound in productivity growth, the irish labour market continues to be more flexible than most and at the start of the crisis public debt as a percentage of gdp was low. however, the achievement of this potential is not inevitable and is contingent on sound economic management. this calls for timely and what are inevitably unpalatable measures in the short - run to ensure that the public finances remain sustainable, as well as pursuing

benoit cœure : interview in alternatives economiques interview with mr benoit cœure, member of the executive board of the european central bank, in alternatives economiques, conducted by ms sandra moatti and published in the may 2015 issue of the magazine. * * * there is a great deal of discussion about the effects of qe. what can you hope to achieve when long - term yields are already extremely low? within the euro area, the transmission channel that is almost the most important in my view is confidence. confidence that the ecb will take its mandate to keep inflation below, but close to, 2 % seriously. before we took this step there had been doubts about the willingness of the ecb to respect its mandate. but it was the only substantive measure possible in the circumstances ; we had run out of conventional measures because the scope to lower key rates had been exhausted. the second channel is to lower borrowing costs, which aren ’ t negligible for companies and households. the policies combating fragmentation in the euro area have borne fruit ; now when interest rates for government borrowing fall it has a noticeable effect on corporate borrowing costs across the euro area – which was not the case even two years ago. that ’ s essential if investment is to recover. sure, rates are already low, but since qe was announced and implemented at the start of march long and very long - term interest rates have fallen significantly in all countries, including germany and france, and even more in spain, italy and those most affected by the crisis, such as ireland and portugal. the third channel works through portfolio rebalancing : it ’ s still too soon to assess that. bank and non - bank investors who sell us their securities have a very strong incentive to invest elsewhere rather than leave their money doing nothing, with deposits at the ecb costing – 0. 20 % p. a. the sharp upturn in the real economy should encourage them to lend more to business. in that sense, the time is right : the impact of qe is being felt just as the recovery is being confirmed, and it will reinforce it. it ’ s a mechanism that is potentially powerful. the final channel, of course, is the exchange rate : this is not an objective in itself, but it reflects market participants ’ expectations of the different monetary policies being pursued on each side of the atlantic. if you include the oil price too, you have a combination of factors favouring recovery and investment