##economic perspective. then comes a presentation by jaime caruana, who will draw some lessons from the recent crisis and the international financial integration. in the afternoon we will feature sujit kapadia and prasanna gai with an analysis of financial contagion using a network model. in addition, there will be two panels that will review financial risk management with two important nuances : its incidence in emerging economies on one hand, and on systemically significant financial institutions, on the other. the economists invited to these panels include michael bordo, paul mcculley, martin redrado, jose dario uribe, martin wolf and roberto zahler. finally, charles calomiris will share with us his vision on the current crisis and the implications of the works presented in this conference. two intense days that hold in store enormous technical content that, without any doubt, will make a fundamental contribution to our future view of macroeconomic and financial phenomena. i want to finish by thanking rodrigo alfaro, dale gray and jorge selaive for their work in putting together this conference. also mauricio calani, monica correa and soledad gallardo, and our institutional affairs management for their help in organizing this event. i also want to thank the many authors and discussants of the papers for their dedication to preparing their valuable presentations. to all of you, dear participants, i wish you two days of fruitful discussion. thank you.

system itself will shape eventual outcomes. our analysis shows that tighter credit conditions imposed on a widespread and persistent basis by the banking system would lead to worse macro - financial outcomes than would otherwise be the case. banks should use the extraordinary policy support being provided to maintain a sustainable supply of credit to businesses and households through the recovery. so, uncertainty remains high, but the benefits of resilience built up in recent years is most evident now. among the factors that led to the better starting position as we entered the covid - shock is the enhanced policy framework that has been put in place in recent years, covering prudential supervision, recovery and resolution, and macroprudential policy. today we are announcing the outcomes of our latest regular reviews of our macroprudential tools. before turning to the mortgage measures, i would note that the countercyclical capital buffer ( ccyb ) rate remains at zero per cent. given the current outlook, we do not expect to announce a change in the ccyb rate through 2021. we are giving explicit guidance on this because we want to provide as much clarity as possible to banks and facilitate the usability of those buffers. just to emphasise, again : buffers that have been appropriately built up in recent years are now there to be used to absorb losses and support the economy through this period of uncertainty. i will focus my policy remarks on the outcome of the annual mortgage measures review. the mortgage measures have the twin objectives of strengthening borrower and lender resilience and reducing the likelihood of an adverse credit - house price spiral emerging. this year the review focused on understanding the impact of the covid - 19 shock on the housing and mortgage markets. it drew on extensive analysis and stakeholder engagement on the effectiveness of the measures. at our most recent meeting, the commission of the central bank agreed that the measures – as currently designed and calibrated – continue to meet their objectives and decided that they will remain unchanged for 2021. the implications of the covid - 19 shock continue to feed into housing demand, supply, market activity and prices. housing supply is likely to remain below pre - pandemic levels, and indeed below estimates of medium - term demand, for an extended period. house price developments have been relatively stable and market expectations are tilted toward minimal change over the next year. housing transactions and mortgage activity have recovered since the summer, but still have some way to go to reach pre - pandemic levels. that