pandemic may also have contributed to this. in any event, the latest indicators of export orders point to a slowdown in trade flows. amid so much uncertainty, preparing macroeconomic projections is even more complicated than usual. the banco de espana ’ s latest forecasts, 1 published on 5 april, confirm that the gradual recovery in activity has been blown off course by the invasion of ukraine : gdp growth has been revised down and inflation up, compared with the previous projection exercise in december 2021. these projections were prepared on the basis of still - incomplete information for the first quarter of the current year. according to the data available, the recovery in activity continued in the period leading up to the war. this is reflected, for example, in the information on social security registrations, despite the effects of the spread of the omicron variant of covid - 19, probably due to the beneficial effects of the high rate of vaccination. however, the same social security registrations data also show that employment growth had already begun to falter in march and early april, following the invasion of ukraine. through the above - mentioned channels, the war has led the output growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to be revised downwards by 0. 9 pp ( to 4. 5 % ) and 1 pp ( to 2. 9 % ), respectively. specifically, in the case of the 2022 revision, on banco de espana estimates, higher commodity prices, increased uncertainty and the lower growth of world markets will reduce growth by 0. 7 pp, 0. 6 pp and 0. 5 pp, respectively. these factors by far outweigh others operating in the opposite direction. these include the fact that, on the latest quarterly national accounts ( qna ) figures published, 2 gdp grew more vigorously in the second half of 2021 than anticipated in the december projection exercise. likewise operating in favour of output growth is the stimulus provided by the measures included in the national plan to respond to the economic and social consequences of the war in ukraine, approved on 29 march by the spanish cabinet, 3 to which i will refer briefly later on. in any event, assuming that the war will not extend over a long time horizon, activity will continue to be underpinned by the foreseeable improvement in the epidemiological see “ macroeconomic projections for the spanish economy ( 2022 - 2024 ) ”, box 1, “ quarterly report on the spanish economy ”, economic bulletin, 1 / 2022

may emerge in the consultation. we want to shorten the period of uncertainty as much as possible. accordingly, after making any appropriate refinements ( for example, in relation to first time buyers, and to the potential future use of private mortgage insurance as floated in the consultation paper ), we will move quickly to confirm the parameters of the standing regime. almost all of the discussions that i have participated in at this committee over the past few years have naturally focused on the banks, but of course this is only one element of the central bank ’ s mandate and it is worth reminding that almost 9 out of 10 staff of the central bank are actually engaged in numerous tasks other than the prudential supervision of banks. ( there are, of course, other aspects of banking oversight that staff deals with, such as the consumer protection and conduct of business aspects of bank regulation ). indeed, the microprudential banking supervisory decision making now largely passes under the control of the eu single supervisory mechanism ( ssm ), which came into operation on november 4. the ssm does not, however, mean less work for us, but rather more work, inasmuch as the procedures of the ssm require a further expansion of our bank supervisory staff as well as a reorganisation of their function. indeed, after three years during which staffing levels have not risen, the central bank now needs to increase staff numbers again, not just because of ssm, but also because of the additional complexity of new international regulations covering non - bank financial services ( which form the heart of the ifsc ), new rules on bank resolution and other new mandates. ( much of the costs here are recovered from the industry ; indeed all regulatory costs could be so recovered, instead of having the effect of eating into the central bank ’ s surplus income to be transferred to the exchequer ; and the central bank has suggested this to successive governments. ) having already absorbed a sizable increase in staffing during 2010 – 11, we are currently engaged in an extensive review of our internal organisation to ensure the conditions for steady improvements in the effectiveness of our work, which relates to essential matters which, especially when they work well, are not obviously visible to the general public. the review is examining a range of issues including internal structures, career paths and internal processes. i expect significant beneficial changes to both organisational structures and practices within the central bank as a result of the review. our effectiveness will be enhanced by our carefully designed and efficient headquarters building at