is expected to be the driving force of global growth, the real gdp growth rate for the january - march quarter has decelerated considerably, due in part to effects of adverse weather conditions. nevertheless, the economy continued its robust recovery trend supported by household spending – as seen in private consumption rebounding from a fall in winter – against the background of the favorable employment and income situation in particular. the u. s. economy is expected to continue to see growth led mainly by private demand, starting from firm household spending. in addition, the european economy, in which the momentum for recovery had been weak, has recently been seeing a clear increase in private consumption, reflecting the effects of the decline in crude oil prices and of a rise in stock prices. it also has been seeing a pick - up in business sentiment and production activity resulting from an bis central bankers ’ speeches improvement in exports and corporate results due to the depreciation of the euro. going forward, the european economy is expected to continue to see moderate recovery with the permeation of the effects of depreciation of the euro and those of the monetary easing measures by the european central bank ( ecb ). meanwhile, turning to emerging economies, the growth momentum of the chinese economy has been sluggish against the backdrop of the deceleration in fixed asset investment and continued inventory adjustments. nevertheless, it is likely to follow a generally stable growth path as there are likely to be effects of the authorities ’ policy measures to support economic activity, although the pace of growth is expected to be somewhat reduced. other emerging economies and commodityexporting economies have continued to lack momentum on the whole, but are expected to gradually increase their growth rates, mainly as the recovery in advanced economies spreads to them. in sum, the global economy – mainly advanced economies – is expected to continue recovering moderately, and against this backdrop, japan ’ s exports are expected to increase moderately. of course, various uncertainties – including the pace of growth in the u. s. economy, the prospects regarding the european debt problem, including developments in greece, developments in the emerging and commodity - exporting economies, and geopolitical risks – continue to call for close attention. in a situation where exports have been picking up and, as i will explain later, private consumption has been resilient, production has been picking up. corporate profits have increased to historical highs and business sentiment has generally stayed at a favorable level ( chart 3 ). under these circumstances, with regard

in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ) were 0. 8 percent for fiscal 2015, 2. 0 percent for fiscal 2016, and 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2017 ( chart 5 ). although the timing of reaching around 2 percent depends on developments in crude oil prices, it is projected to be around the first half of fiscal 2016, assuming that crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent level. thereafter, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi is likely to be around 2 percent on average. concluding remarks in conclusion, let me touch on the economy of hokkaido prefecture. the economy has been recovering moderately, although some weakness has been observed in some aspects, such as the public construction sector, which largely affects small firms. turning to final demand, there are somewhat weak developments in terms of the bis central bankers ’ speeches decline in public investment, but a marked increase in the number of foreign visitors to japan has been underpinning demand. moreover, over the period of more than a year since the consumption tax hike, even durable consumer goods and housing investment have started to level off. meanwhile, as seen in the steady improvement in the employment and income situation, a virtuous cycle from income to spending has been operating in the region in the same way as in japan as a whole. in hokkaido prefecture, there are plenty of topics associated with encouraging tourism. for example, yoichi city became the setting for massan, a morning drama serial by japan broadcasting corporation ( nippon hoso kyokai, nhk ). in addition, the hokkaido shinkansen will commence its operation by march 2016, and it is scheduled to be extended to sapporo city. these topics show that hokkaido prefecture will receive further attention going forward. moreover, sapporo city has announced its intention to bid for the 2026 winter olympics, and this will increase the opportunity for hokkaido prefecture to display to the world its appeal. other than tourism, hokkaido prefecture has strength in the food industry on the back of its abundant agricultural and fishery resources. i have heard that hokkaido prefecture now faces problems such as lower production of raw milk resulting from increasing abandonment of farming as well as slack in unloading in the fishing industry, but i expect that production of higher value - added goods will be promoted through efforts such as healthy - do, which is the certification system of functional food that the hokkaido government is making efforts to popularize. other initiatives include promoting hokkaido prefecture as a back - up base for