euro area were accompanied by some decoupling of yields from those in the united states, as differentials between euro area long - term interest rates and comparable rates in the united states have widened. as regards the evolution of the world economy, recent developments tend to confirm the picture of a mild overall improvement in the external environment beyond the euro area. as before, however, the main features range from continuously strong growth of the us economy to continuously weak output in japan. for the euro area, only a few additional data for economic indicators have become available, and the assessment of forthcoming gdp developments is currently complicated by the fact that the next release will be based on revised data in accordance with the new concept of the european system of accounts ( esa 95 ). industrial production declined at the beginning of this year, and data on retail sales volumes suggest that the pace of growth slowed down somewhat around the turn of the year, but recently there are preliminary indications of some improvement. recent developments in the labour market show a somewhat decelerating employment growth towards the end of last year. the rate of unemployment remained unchanged in march 1999, following two consecutive declines in january and february. industrial confidence declined further in the first quarter of 1999, but preliminary april figures from the european commission point to a slight improvement. given the latest developments up to april, it would appear that consumer confidence reached a peak at the beginning of this year since when it has moderated slightly. as expected, the trend towards decreasing inflation rates appears to have been reversed in march. in march the annual rate of increase of consumer prices as measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices ( hicp ) was 1. 0 %, compared with 0. 8 % in the previous four months. this was essentially a consequence of the substantial rise in oil prices which began in mid - february feeding through to energy prices in the hicp. in addition, unprocessed food prices have continued to exert some upward pressure on overall price increases in recent months. excluding the more volatile hicp components of energy and food, the rate of increase in consumer prices in march remained at 1. 1 % - i. e. unchanged from the rate observed in february and marginally lower than that recorded at the turn of the year. in conclusion, at this point in time the general outlook for price stability remains favourable. although the lower effective exchange rate of the euro and the rise in oil prices may lead to some upward pressure on headline hicp inflation in the coming months

national budgetary and structural policies are reviewed to detect any inconsistences and emerging imbalances while major budgetary decisions are still under preparation. the european semester reinforces the preventive arm of the stability and growth pact, introduces a new procedure for addressing macroeconomic imbalances, and places greater emphasis on monitoring national fiscal frameworks, identifying macrostructural growth bottlenecks and detecting macrofinancial risks in the member states ( see kohler - toglhofer, w. and part p. ( 2011 ), “ macro coordination under the european semester ”, monetary policy and the economy, issue 4, oesterreichische nationalbank ). 22 / 22 bis central bankers'speeches