##es offered around 90 % of the 10 - year yield with only one - fifth of the duration risk. looking into 2019, a further flattening of the yield curve is expected, with the long end of the curve moving up less than the short end and the us 10 - year government bond yield is expected to remain within its recent trading range, moving gradually higher, near the area of 3 %. turning to the euro area, and given that the correlation between us treasuries ( usts ) and german bunds has remained high ( 70 % ), the latter should follow usts, but only drift slightly higher from their low levels given modest inflation expectations, the euro area ’ s weak economic momentum and enhanced political risks. thank you very much for your attention!

“ global risks and prospects for 2019 ” keynote speech by professor john ( iannis ) mourmouras senior deputy governor bank of greece former deputy finance minister at omfif - camri panel in singapore “ trade, china and brexit : global economic challenges for 2019 ” singapore, 25 january 2019 1. introduction dear professors, distinguished panellists, ladies and gentlemen, i would like to thank the centre for asset management research and investments at the national university of singapore and omfif for the kind invitation and say that i am very happy to be back in singapore. i was here in march 2016 upon an invitation from the lee kuan yew school of public policy to discuss the role of negative interest rates in terms of the transmission of monetary policy and its impact. today, my focus is on the main risks for the financial markets this year, which could result in heightened uncertainty across the global economy, prompting certain cassandras to foretell a global economic downturn and even a recession. the synchronized global expansion of 2017 gave way to a disparate growth picture in 2018. growth in the united states has remained solid ( 2. 9 % ), bolstered by fiscal stimulus. in contrast, activity in the euro area has been somewhat weaker than previously expected near 1. 7 %, owing to slowing net exports. in the emerging economies, growth edged down to an estimated 4. 6 % in 2018, as a number of countries with elevated current account deficits experienced substantial financial market pressures and appreciable slowdowns in activity. all in all, global growth is projected to moderate from 3. 7 % in 2018 to 3. 5 % in 2019, before picking up slightly to 3. 6 % in 2020, as economic slack dissipates, monetary policy accommodation in advanced economies is removed, and global trade gradually slows. according to imf estimates, advanced - economy growth will gradually decelerate toward potential, falling to 2 % in 2019 as monetary policy is normalized and capacity constraints become increasingly binding. softening global trade and tighter financing conditions will result in a more challenging external environment for emerging economies with emes ’ growth expected to tick down at 4. 5 % in 2019. in china, gdp growth slowed to 6. 6 % in 2018, its lowest annual rate since 1990. a further moderate slowdown in chinese growth is expected this year ( at 6. 2 % ), as increased trade tensions could offset the positive effects of the stimulus package.