6 cpi s. a., y / y % chg. 2. 0 all items less fresh food ( core cpi ) 1. 5 all items less fresh food and energy 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 cy 2013 / apr. oct. 14 / apr. oct. 15 / apr. oct. 16 / apr. source : ministry of internal affairs and communications. note : figures are adjusted for the effects of consumption tax hikes. oct. 17 / apr. oct. 18 / apr. oct. 19 / apr. chart 7 output gap 2. 5 % 2. 0 excess demand ( upward pressure on prices ) 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 excess supply ( downward pressure on prices ) - 1. 5 cy 2013 / q1 q3 14 / q1 q3 source : bank of japan. note : based on staff estimations. 15 / q1 q3 16 / q1 q3 17 / q1 q3 18 / q1 q3 19 / q1 chart 8 inflation expectations 2. 5 y / y, ann. avg., % households ( over the next five years ) 2. 0 firms ( five years ahead ) 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 cy 2005 source : bank of japan. notes : 1. figures for households are from the opinion survey on the general public's views and behavior, estimated using the modified carlson - parkin method. 2. figures for firms are from the tankan ( general prices, summary of " inflation outlook of enterprises, " all industries and all enterprises ). chart 9 yield curve control 1. 2 % 1. 0 target level of the long - term interest rate : around zero percent 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 short - term policy interest rate : minus 0. 1 percent 0. 2 0. 0 - 0. 2 residual maturity, year chart 10 outlook for price levels % prices will go up one year from now prices will go up over the next five years cy 2013 / mar. sept. 14 / mar. sept. 15 / mar. sept. 16 / mar. sept. 17 / mar. sept. 18 / mar. sept. 19 / mar. source : opinion survey on the general public's views and behavior, bank of japan. notes : 1. disregarding the effects of consumption tax hikes. 2. figures

utilizing artificial intelligence ( ai ), robotic process automation ( rpa ), and other technologies. in addition to developing a working environment that further encourages the labor participation of senior citizens and women, innovations in areas such as automation and labor - saving technologies are important for the social development of our economy in dealing with demographic changes brought about by an aging population. experience suggests that, once this type of business fixed investment begins, including that intended for domestic capacity expansion, firms will also proactively consider renewing other plants and equipment, thereby making it unlikely that demand for fixed investment will decline significantly even in the presence of some uncertainty regarding the economy. indeed, despite previous concern over a drop in business fixed investment, the real gdp growth rates for the january - march and april - june quarters of 2019 actually registered quarter - on - quarter increases. this could be regarded as an indication of the resilience of japan's economy to downward pressure and uncertainties arising from overseas economies. c. outlook for japan's economy japan's economy is likely to continue on an expanding trend throughout the projection period - - that is, through fiscal 2021. in fiscal 2019, exports are projected to continue showing some weakness for the time being, reflecting the effects of the slowdown in overseas economies, and the pace of increase in business fixed investment is likely to decelerate temporarily, mainly in manufacturing. on the other hand, private consumption likely will increase as the employment and income situation continues to improve. after the consumption tax hike scheduled for october, private consumption and housing investment are likely to be pushed down for some time. however, the rate of increase in business fixed investment is expected to rise somewhat, due in part to increases in investment related to urban redevelopment projects as well as labor - saving investment. public investment is also likely to increase, due mainly to the implementation of the supplementary budgets for fiscal 2018 and the promotion of policy measures for national resilience. moreover, exports are projected to return to their moderate increasing trend, with overseas economies growing moderately on the whole. following a likely decline in the second half of fiscal 2019 due to the effects of the consumption tax hike, private consumption and housing investment are expected to head gradually toward a recovery in fiscal 2020. the economy is projected to be underpinned mainly by the continued increasing trend in exports, with the growth rates of overseas economies rising, and an expansion in public expenditure accompanying the hosting of the olympic games to be held in tokyo in 2020. japan's