samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
and negotiating skills. a historian berkovi documented that " dubrovnik entered into numerous international political and trade relations [ and was ] able to utilize [ this ] wisely and skilfully in the defense of [ its ] independence, sovereignty and economic growth ". and as a central banker of a country that has recently joined the euro area, five months ago, i must say that this is also not the first time we use hard currency here. dubrovnik had a mint, called zecca, from 14th to 19th century that minted its own much appreciated and sought after currency. to conclude, old dubrovnik based its prosperity on openness and trade, while at the same time building its resilience through smart and prudent economic, fiscal and development policies. this multifaceted strategy cannot be a better lesson against the backdrop of today's challenges. with this historical hindsight, i wish all of us productive and fruitful discussions and i am happy to give the floor to the managing director of the imf, ms kristalina georgieva. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

##fp improvements. even if we consider these estimates as somewhat optimistic, welfare advances would be substantial. but how to get structural reforms right? there are in general two dimensions of structural reforms. first, and in principle the easier one, are the reforms that bring us closer to the efficiency frontier. that said, it is quite likely that most of the low hanging fruits of productivity gains from sectoral reallocation and imports of foreign technology have been collected and further improvements may require a new generation of reforms. this second generation are the reforms that expand the frontier. they encompass, among others, product market reforms, competition policy, labour market reforms, public finance and taxation ( including social security system ), human capital development, innovation policy, etc. can we and should we act on all or most of these different fronts simultaneously? probably. do we as economists and policymakers truly understand all the synergies, complementarities and marginal effects of different reforms? probably not to the extent that we would like. are we on the same boat when it comes to their positive gains and externalities? i would dare say yes. we also have to keep in mind the political economy dimension of the process. we need to ensure broad support for the reform agenda especially since there might be some short - term costs of certain reforms. in that sense, lacklustre support for market economy and democracy as well as low faith in justice systems in cee countries compared to long establishes democracies might complicate matters further. this is where policy transparency and communication plays an important role. clearly, not everything we do will always get full support from the broad public, particularly in the case of structural reforms with long - term gains and short - term costs, but sometimes boldness is rewarded beyond our expectations. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches
boost confidence in the euro area ’ s banks. bis central bankers ’ speeches

. this has led us to adapt our communication, which is based on the intention to keep rates low for a prolonged period. given the low level of inflation, investors are anticipating a qe package between now and the end of the year. are they mistaken? our new long - term liquidity lending ( tltro ) programme, which will be launched in september, will in particular enable banks to address their major bond refinancing needs. as a result, the banks will not only be encouraged to lend more and at more favourable conditions, but they will raise less funding on the markets. this liquidity will be returned to investors, which they can use to buy other assets. so we shouldn ’ t be expecting a genuine qe package? last month we launched a package of measures that will be activated in september and december before being renewed on a quarterly basis. barring any new circumstances, we need to take time to measure the effects. when you talk about large - scale asset purchases, which assets do you mean, exactly? to be really effective, bearing in mind the limited size of the private capital market in europe, this type of programme is likely to include mainly government bonds. bis central bankers ’ speeches the new longer - term loans to banks are conditional on them granting credit. don ’ t you think they will use them to purchase sovereign bonds as in the past? they could do it to invest their liquidity on a temporary basis before finding a permanent home for it. the banks are aware that it is not wise to be over - exposed to sovereign debt. the link between banks and governments, which is what prompted the sovereign debt crisis, is now monitored very closely. the euro has not really fallen despite the fall in the key interest rates. is this a concern for you? we have noticed that following the new measures, a persistent rising trend has been halted. we are confident that when the new measures are implemented, they will underpin an accommodative monetary policy. the euro area needs such a policy – unlike other major currency areas, which are at a completely different phase of the economic cycle. and this rebalancing is likely to be reflected, over time, in the external value of the euro. a portuguese bank has triggered turmoil on the european markets. are the euro area and its banks still a cause for concern despite all the firewalls that have been put in place? the banking union that the european central bank is actively preparing for will
medium - term goal for bis central bankers ’ speeches inflation, provided the community can understand their temporary nature and expectations of ongoing inflation remain well - anchored. accordingly, the view of the board at the recent meeting was that while the impact of the floods on the short - term path of output and prices would be quite substantial, monetary policy should not respond to those effects. likewise, while the recovery efforts may add a little to aggregate demand over the latter part of 2011 and 2012, those effects should be manageable. while we could not assess the impact of cyclone yasi at the board meeting, our assessment of the medium - term outlook is not very different now. the outcomes for inflation in the latter part of 2010 were quite moderate and a little lower than we had thought they would be at the time of the last hearing. to what extent this represents a genuinely lower trend, as opposed to noise, is, as always, difficult to say. there would appear to be some association between consumer caution, reports of widespread discounting in the retail sector and the very high exchange rate. if that connection is in operation then the question arises as to how long such cautious behaviour might continue – and this is one of the uncertainties to which we point in the section on “ risks ” in the outlook chapter of the statement. there are of course other uncertainties as well. but stepping back, underlying inflation has fallen by a substantial amount from the peak in 2008. it is worth recording that a combination, on the latest figures, of a 5 per cent unemployment rate and an inflation rate clearly “ in the 2 ’ s ” is a pretty favourable one by the standards of recent decades. turning finally to monetary policy itself, as a result of the adjustment to the cash rate made in november, and the changes made by financial institutions to lending rates, interest rates being paid by borrowers are a bit above average compared with the past 15 years. household credit growth is quite modest and business credit is still declining, as firms continue to consolidate balance sheets and, in the case of larger companies, to access capital markets directly. reports suggest that there is some easing of lending conditions in some areas but my sense is that, generally, lenders remain quite cautious. the exchange rate is at peak levels for the floating rate era. this is not especially surprising given the level of the terms of trade, but nonetheless it is exerting dampening pressure on the traded sector outside of the resources sector. so, overall, financial conditions

are on the firm side. in view of the general outlook that i sketched at the beginning, that seems to us to be appropriate. having reached that position in a fairly timely fashion, the board has judged it to be sensible of late to leave the cash rate steady. my colleagues and i look forward to your questions. bis central bankers ’ speeches
##9e952fc to put this in perspective, a typical working vocabulary for an adult native english - speaker is between 20, 000 and 35, 000 words. see the economist ’ s reference to the testyourvocab. com test : https : / / www. economist. com / johnson / 2013 / 05 / 29 / lexical - facts all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches ( containing words like “ if ” or “ but ”, which would tend to indicate exceptions or operational modifications ) has increased, as has the relative conditionality ( i. e. allowing for the fact that overall volume has gone up too ). second, mapping networks of exposures is now a familiar tool for revealing interconnections and critical points in the financial system. can we do the same for the system of post - crisis banking regulation? chart 3 shows a simplified but real representation of how four layers of regulation for uk banks interlock with each other : eu regulation in the crr in yellow and eba technical standards in red, our rulebook in blue and supervisory statements in green. this chart shows how the network of interconnections changed between 2007 and 2017. each node is a single legal provision that explicitly cross - refers to at least one other provision. the simple observation is : the core of the network, mainly comprising the crr, is a lot denser in 2017 than it was in 2007. chart 3 : network of cross - references in the regulatory framework ( provisions for uk deposit - takers, 2007 and 2017 ) note : each node represents a provision, and each edge ( line between nodes ) represents cross - references between provisions. for 2017, we also show the legal source for each provision : crr ( yellow nodes ), rulebook ( blue ), eba technical standards ( red ) and supervisory statements ( green ). the source for the 2007 network is the fsa handbook ( only prudential provisions for deposit - takers ). for visual clarity, only nodes with at least one edge are displayed, and edges on the plot are unweighted, i. e. they do not show the number of cross - references. one way to put numbers on this is google ’ s pagerank algorithm, originally designed to measure the centrality and importance of individual web pages. chart 4 compares pagerank scores for the provisions in the 2007 and 2017 banking frameworks : you can see

our recent policy experiences with the past episodes of combating deflation such as the 1930s in the united states? 5. final words there are no easy answers to these questions. during the next two days, i am looking forward to learning from both prominent scholars in this field and central bankers their analyses and perspectives on the " financial markets and the real economy in a low interest rate environment. " i also hope the insights gained at the conference will be of some help to the future generations of central bankers. it would be our utmost pleasure if every one of you could obtain some insights from the discussions that follow. thank you.
and robust models. a continuous interaction between academics and central bankers is the best way to prepare for the challenges ahead. therefore, i would very much like to thank all the speakers and discussants for taking part in the workshop. i wish you all a fruitful and very productive day. designed by the printing and publishing division of the bank of italy

jose manuel gonzalez - paramo : household finance and consumption opening remarks by mr jose manuel gonzalez - paramo, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the conference organised by the european central bank and the banque centrale du luxembourg, luxembourg, 25 october 2010. * * * ladies and gentlemen, introduction it is a great pleasure to open this joint bcl / ecb conference in luxembourg. this is the second conference organised in the context of the eurosystem household finance and consumption network. this network is unique as it brings together experts from a wide range of fields and institutions in one single forum. participants in today ’ s meeting include survey experts, statisticians and economists. institutions represented are the ecb, the eurosystem ’ s national central banks and a number of national statistical institutes and research institutes, as well as central banks from outside the eurosystem. historical background of the eurosystem household finance and consumption network developing, implementing and analysing a survey on the finances and consumption of households for the entire euro area does not happen overnight. the history of this network dates back to december 2006. a task force was then established to investigate the feasibility of a survey on household finance and consumption in the euro area. on the basis of the task force ’ s report, the governing council decided to establish a network of eurosystem experts to prepare a proposal for such a survey. for one and a half years the network worked diligently at developing such a proposal. based on this proposal, in september 2008 the governing council approved the conduct of the survey and gave a three - fold mandate to the network : ( 1 ) to complete the implementation work, ( 2 ) to take care of the survey development and ( 3 ) to serve as a forum for research with the survey data. after all this preparatory work, the fieldwork of actual data collection of the first wave of the household finance and consumption survey could finally start, with many countries in the euro area conducting their survey in the course of 2010 and 2011. at the current juncture, we are therefore looking forward to the analysis that will result of using the collected data. even though the data of the first wave of the euro area wide survey are not yet available today, there is already a large literature on household finance that analyses existing micro household data. the work that will be presented at this conference shows this very clearly, with contributions based on a wide array of datasets ranging from existing public
jens thomsen : brief overview of the danish economy statement by mr jens thomsen, member of the board of governors of the national bank of denmark, at the meeting of the danish economic council, copenhagen, 27 may 2004. * * * it now seems probable that the danish economy reached a trough in the autumn of 2003 and that an upswing has set in ; an upswing which has not been acknowledged until now, near the middle of 2004. the upswing has primarily been reflected in private consumption, but in addition unemployment has been falling slightly since the turn of the year. naturally, the final impact on unemployment is difficult to predict since unemployment typically reacts with a considerable and varying lag. unlike most other western european countries, denmark has a relatively low unemployment rate, and a strong upswing could lead to overheating. the greatest risk would be if a substantial economic upswing materialised in our neighbouring countries, but there are no indications of this. germany, in particular, is having difficulties boosting its economy. a positive aspect is that growth in the 10 new eu member states is above four per cent, although they account for only four per cent of denmark ’ s exports. in the short term it would seem that only a domestically driven consumption boom with a substantial increase in the consumption ratio could lead to overheating. the consumption ratio is currently low, and the wealth ratio is high. consequently, a marked consumption effect cannot be ruled out. the reversal of the danish economy emphasises how difficult it is to finetune the economy by means of fiscal policy. our knowledge is incomplete. it takes time to prepare fiscal - policy measures, and it takes time before they have an impact on unemployment. such measures can easily have a disruptive effect on the economy when the underlying cyclical factors are uncer - tain and changing. “ in practice there is a genuine risk that attempts to conduct active stabilisation policy will in themselves lead to cyclical fluctuations ”, cf. the former economic advisor torben andersen in udviklingslinier i økonomisk teori - trends in economic theory - ( 2000, ed. chr. hjorth - andersen ). if fiscal policy is eased, it must also be tightened at a later stage ; otherwise it will not be possible to maintain the long - term targets for the development in public finances. the reflections on the sustainability of public finances in the consultation paper emphasise this need for subsequent fiscal - policy adjustment. in

order to be sustainable, public finances must comply with a budgetary restriction to the effect that future government revenue must match the current government debt and future government expenditure. such a restriction means than any budgetary relaxation must subsequently be counterbalanced by a tightening.
the most part, effective in maintaining a broad balance between nominal demand and supply and so generating low and stable inflation. but they are not well suited to nipping incipient bubbles in the bud and restricting burgeoning imbalances. policymakers need to make difficult judgements about asset prices and imbalances but they also need effective and efficient tools to enact those judgements.

incentivise a loosening of underwriting standards driving asset prices and debt levels above levels that could be justified by lower trend interest rates. this could be exacerbated by amplification mechanisms in the financial system such as an increase in collateral values. a more leveraged real economy is also more vulnerable to macro - economic tail events. analysis since the crisis had demonstrated that more highly indebted households cut back more heavily on consumption during downturns. 21 and a shock to house prices, for example as a result of a large adverse shock to employment, could generate strong negative wealth effects. 19 see sushko and turner ( 2018 ) and anadu et al ( 2018 ). 20 current uk household debt is twice the 2002 level in aggregate but debt servicing cost is half so the debt service ratio is unchanged 21 for example, micro data studies from the uk, us, denmark and norway have all found statistically significant correlations between higher levels of household debt and the size of consumption cuts in a shock. for example andersen et al ( 2016 ), kovacs et al ( 2018 ), dynan and edelberg ( 2013 ) and fagereng and halvorsen ( 2016 ). all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches one might expect to see similar effects in the corporate sector. and indeed, bank staff estimate that the share of corporate debt owed by highly leveraged companies has now pretty much grown back to pre - crisis levels. 22 this is a risk because we know that more leveraged firms cut back on investment and employment by more in a downturn. 23 all else equal therefore – and crucially, absent policy – a low for long world is likely to be one with a less resilient and riskier financial system and a more leveraged real economy that, as a consequence, is more vulnerable to macro - economic shocks. financial stability challenges of low for long : the risk of more severe downturns and this brings me to the third challenge of low for longer for financial stability – the risk that in such an environment, economic downturns will on average be more severe. low for long makes demand management of the economy more difficult in downturns, reducing the space for monetary policy easing with conventional tools. this is because, for a given inflation target and with the reduction in long - run real rates, policy rates are closer to their effective lower bound. changes in
january 12, https : / / www. frbatlanta. org / economy - matters / 2017 / 01 / 12 / tending - to - the - farm - part - three. see rob grunewald ( 2018 ), “ early childhood investments : paving the way for the future workforce, ” in stuart andreason, todd greene, heath prince, and carl e. van horn, eds., investing in america ’ s workforce, vol. 1 : investing in workers ( kalamazoo, mich. : w. e. upjohn institute for employment research ), pp. 297 - 314, https : / / www. investinwork. org / - / media / files / volumeone / early % 20childhood % 20investments % 20paving % 20the % 20way % 20for % 20the % 20future % 20workf orce. pdf? la = en. see, for example, rasheed malik, katie hamm, leila schochet, cristina novoa, simon workman, and steven jessen - howard ( 2018 ), america ’ s child care deserts in 2018 ( washington : center for american progress, december ), https : / / www. americanprogress. org / issues / earlychildhood / reports / 2018 / 12 / 06 / 461643 / americas - child - care - deserts - 2018. - 4confirm that children who grow up in areas with better - quality k - 12 schools or in classes with higher - quality teachers have better outcomes in life. 7 later in life, workforce training and education are most effective when they train workers in skills needed by local employers. rural areas where traditional industries are declining and where new employers may be moving in often experience a mismatch between the skills of local workers and those demanded by the new employers. training and retraining programs tend to be centralized and concentrated in areas with a higher population density, which puts many rural areas at a disadvantage. 8 education benefits both the student and the community. it is true that some young people leave their hometowns to seek greater opportunity. however, it is also true that young families, drawn back home by family and social ties, are the largest source of in - migration in many rural communities. young families are more likely to come if they believe their children will get a good education. returnees often bring back important skills and experiences and make meaningful contributions to the local economy.

expertise in tenders and contracts. even in ppp projects, it is best if the government is the one that acts to complete the statutory processes such as obtaining building permits, municipal permits, environmental quality, etc. the government has an advantage here. 1 / 1 bis central bankers'speeches