charles l evans : is it time to return to business - as - usual monetary policy? a case for patience speech by mr charles l evans, president of the federal reserve bank of chicago, at the 56th national association for business economics ( nabe ) annual meeting, chicago, illinois, 29 september 2014. * * * thank you. i would like to thank the national association for business economics ( nabe ) for inviting me to speak this morning. the organizers of this annual meeting were farsighted in arranging the conference around the theme of long - term strategies. as the many excellent speakers make clear, there is much to ponder as we contemplate the future of monetary policy. and i welcome the opportunity to talk to you today about my views on the appropriate strategy for determining the timing and pace of our eventual policy normalization. before i begin, let me note that the views i express are my own and do not necessarily represent those of my colleagues on the federal open market committee ( fomc ) or within the federal reserve system. introduction and summary as you know, for almost six years, economic conditions have led the fomc to keep its primary policy tool, the federal funds rate, at its effective zero lower bound ( zlb ). when will it be time to finally lift the funds rate from the zlb? of course, the answer to that question depends on our progress toward our mandated goals of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. it has been a long time since the trough of the great recession. in the wake of the recession, the unemployment rate reached at an astonishing peak of 10. 0 percent. since then, we have made significant progress in moving the unemployment rate back to a more normal number. yet, at 6. 1 percent, it remains too high. and, as i will discuss shortly, some other measures suggest that the labor market is far from complete recovery. we have underperformed on the inflation front as well. since 2008, year - over - year total inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index ( pce ) has averaged just 1. 4 percent, well below its 2 percent target. today, pce inflation stands at 1 - 1 / 2 percent and is expected to move up only slowly toward the fomc ’ s target. nonetheless, we have come a long way in healing the injuries the financial crisis inflicted. certainly monetary policy has been doing some heavy lifting. the federal reserve responded quickly to the unfolding recession by

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