improvement since the program began last september. over this time period, the unemployment rate has declined to 7. 3 percent from 8. 1 percent. however, at the same time, this decline in the unemployment rate overstates the degree of improvement. other metrics of labor market conditions, such as the hiring, job - openings, job - finding rate, quits rate and the vacancy - to - unemployment ratio, collectively indicate a much more modest improvement in labor market conditions compared to that suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate. in particular, it is still hard for those who are unemployed to find jobs. currently, there are three unemployed workers per job opening, as opposed to an average of two during the period from 2003 to 2007. with respect to the second metric – confidence that the economic recovery is strong enough to generate sustained labor market improvement – i don ’ t think we have yet passed that test. the economy has not picked up forward momentum and a 2 percent growth rate – even if sustained – might not be sufficient to generate further improvement in labor market conditions. moreover, as i noted earlier, fiscal uncertainties loom very large right now as congress considers the issues of funding the government and raising the debt limit ceiling. assuming no change in my assessment of the efficacy and costs associated with the purchase program, i ’ d like to see economic news that makes me more confident that we will see continued improvement in the labor market. then i would feel comfortable that the time had come to cut the pace of asset purchases. 4 regional economic conditions let me now turn to economic conditions in the region. the upstate new york economy is continuing to grow, but at a pace somewhat slower than the national economy. in part, this reflects the fact that the u. s. economy is recovering from a much deeper and more severe recession than upstate new york. as the national economy continues to heal, places like upstate new york, which didn ’ t see a huge boom and bust in housing and their economies before the great recession, don ’ t have as much ground to make up. but the region ’ s slow economic growth during the recovery also reflects the re - emergence of historical trends – upstate new york hasn ’ t tended to perform as well as the rest of the country during economic expansions. like many economies in the northeast, upstate has tended to grow slowly in recent decades, as the population has shifted to other parts of the country and the once dominant manufacturing industry has shrunk considerably. these

william c dudley : the national and regional economy remarks by mr william c dudley, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the whitman school of management at syracuse university, syracuse, new york, 27 september 2013. * * * good afternoon. i am pleased to be here today at syracuse university. it is always a pleasure to speak with the different communities that make up our region, and it is especially gratifying to have the opportunity to speak with you, our future leaders. so thank you for inviting me. my meeting with you today is part of our continuing efforts to understand what is going on at the grassroots level of our economy. earlier on this trip, i met with government and business leaders in buffalo, rochester and syracuse to learn about some of the challenges the region faces as well as the collaborative efforts being taken to further economic development. the agenda for these visits is always packed, but that ’ s part of the point – to meet with a diverse array of representatives in order to get a comprehensive picture of economic conditions in the region and a fuller understanding of the major issues and concerns. this is our fourth trip to upstate new york in the past few years and recent trips have also taken us to northern new jersey, the boroughs of new york city, long island, and fairfield county, connecticut. my outreach trips complement the ongoing efforts of the new york fed to assess conditions in the upstate new york economy and throughout our district. we monitor economic performance on a monthly basis through our indexes of economic activity and our survey of new york state manufacturers. we also get important input on economic conditions from meetings with our upstate advisory board, whose members are major leaders in the upstate economy. we have constructed a consumer credit panel that allows us to better understand the financial condition of homeowners and students, and conduct a bi - annual poll of small businesses to understand their credit needs and availability. the results of the latter have helped inform a series of clinics that we have conducted to help small businesses take the next step to access capital and identify new sources of funding. as i mentioned earlier, we are always eager to engage with students, and our commitment to our region includes a series of educational programs worth highlighting. first, math x economics, which encourages students attending title 1 schools to consider preparing for a career in finance or economics. and, second, our yearly fed challenge competitions, in which teams of students from high schools and colleges in the district take on the roles of