% in the first quarter of 2005, confirming that the underlying growth dynamics remained subdued in the first half of 2005. at the same time, the most recent survey indicators have, on balance, supported the view that economic growth could improve in the second half of this year. looking further ahead, conditions continue to be in place for positive fundamental factors to influence the outlook and for economic activity to pick up beyond the short term. on the external side, ongoing growth in global demand and improvements in euro area price competitiveness should support euro area exports. on the domestic side, investment should benefit from the exceptionally low level of both nominal and real market interest rates prevailing across the entire maturity spectrum, as well as from the robust growth of corporate earnings and ongoing improvements in corporate efficiency. consumption growth should gradually rise, broadly in line with expected developments in disposable income. this picture is consistent with the most recent ecb staff projections, which envisage euro area real gdp growing at rates of between 1. 0 % and 1. 6 % in 2005 and between 1. 3 % and 2. 3 % in 2006. compared with the june projections, the ranges projected for real gdp growth have been adjusted slightly downwards. for 2005, this mainly reflects slight downward revisions of past data, while for 2006 this reflects the projected effects on disposable income of increases in oil prices. this outlook for economic activity is subject to a number of downward risks, relating mainly to higher oil prices, low consumer confidence and concerns about global imbalances. in particular, the potential further dampening impact of oil prices on the outlook for growth is being monitored very closely. oil prices have continued to rise, increasing considerably since the beginning of the year, and developments in futures prices suggest that market participants expect the current tightness in oil markets to persist. obviously, the situation has been further complicated by the tragic effects of hurricane katrina. all our thoughts are with the people of the city of new orleans and all affected neighbouring areas and we are touched by the wave of global solidarity helping them to cope with 1 / 3 their immediate needs. at the same time, it remains difficult to assess the full extent of the damage and the period of time necessary for its repair. normally, despite the significant wealth destruction resulting from such storms, the economic impact at the national level is limited to the short term and is increasingly offset by the positive impacts of rebuilding activity. at the moment, we consider that the global impact will most likely remain limited

approximately 11 billion euros. how possible is a third bailout program and if so, what form could it take? in the details of triggering the omt program, there is a distinction between a precautionary credit line and an emergency credit line. how could a third bailout program take place? “ this discussion is also premature. the current program runs until the end of next year. this is more or less one and a half year to go. we have to make this program a success. as regards the future, there is a clear paragraph in the november 2012 eurogroup statement which i already referred to. it says that the european partners commit to provide assistance to greece during the life of the program and beyond if greece has not regained capital market access and implements fully the adjustment program. this is public and it is nothing new. it is true that the debt level of the country will be elevated for years to come and this means that full market access will be challenging. you touched upon two different issues. the first issue is that the country ’ s budget has a fiscal gap for the years 2015 – 2016 and the second issue is that we have a financing gap of the existing program in the second half of next year. these two issues have to be dealt with under the current program. completely separate are the necessary conditions for an omt program – you must be in a situation in which you are regaining full bond market access and you must have an esm program, either a fully fledged or a precautionary program and there has to be an appropriate imf involvement. so, it depends on whether the country is in a situation in which it can have the possibility of regaining full market access ”. bis central bankers ’ speeches we know that the greek government is preparing to go to the bond market very carefully. could this be helpful? “ any use of a precautionary line would assume that you can cover as a country all your financing needs from the capital markets. otherwise, the program is more than precautionary. and one has to assess very carefully when a country can access capital markets. in my personal view, there are at least two preconditions. one is that the country has reached a primary surplus and second that it has returned to positive real growth. tapping capital markets is a challenge and it will remain a challenge ”. you have been following the greek crisis since 2010. three years later, what would you say about the progress athens has made in