increases in employment, following several years of strong growth as a result of pent - up demand during the crisis. investment in housing will continue to grow notably, boosted by job creation and the availability of credit under favourable conditions. also, business investment will remain robust, in line with the expected course of final demand, against a background of most notable headway in the ongoing restructuring of corporate balance sheets and of persisting easy financial conditions. turning to external demand, the cumulative gains in competitiveness that i referred to and the sound outlook for the international economy as a whole and, in particular, for the euro area, are expected to continue making for a dynamic spanish export performance. risks this predominantly favourable scenario is subject to various sources of risk. for example, developments on global financial markets. in february we saw how the high valuations attained by certain financial assets can give rise to bouts of price corrections and notable rises in volatility. any future intensification of these episodes, which to date have originated in us markets, might have adverse consequences for economic activity and for financial stability. furthermore, it is complicated to anticipate how brexit, and its consequences in terms of trade in goods and services or in movements of people and capital, will unfold. but, in any event, protracted uncertainty over the final agreement intensifies the risks of an adverse impact on activity. on the domestic front, the risks associated with the political situation in catalonia remain. the baseline scenario of our december projections included the negative effects of the increase in uncertainty relating to political tensions. specifically, on that occasion it was considered that the scope of the events already observed would be relatively limited and temporary, albeit not negligible. so far, the information available appears to confirm that recent economic developments are not far removed from the scenario anticipated, with effects that appear to have been confined to catalonia. specifically, since summer 2017, the performance of the catalonian economy appears to have been relatively worse than that of the rest of spain in terms of the figures, for example, on domestic spending and tourism. elsewhere, the indicators measuring the degree of economic and financial uncertainty suggest a reduction in this variable. the incidence of this source of risk will depend on the intensity and persistence of the tensions. an easing in these tensions might lead to higher growth than that considered in our december projections. conversely, a hypothetical rebound in tensions might lead to an increase in uncertainty resulting in a more pronounced impact on agents ’ spending decisions.

11. 07. 2022 welcoming remarks to the conference on econometric methods and empirical analysis of microdata in honour of manuel arellano pablo hernandez de cos governor good morning, and welcome to this conference on econometric methods and empirical analysis of microdata in honour of manuel arellano, one of our country ’ s leading economists and a key figure in the field of econometrics at international level. let me take this opportunity to, once again, congratulate professor arellano on all his important achievements. we are indeed very honoured at the banco the espana to have manuel with us at the cemfi. in his recent acceptance speech at the award ceremony of the king of spain ’ s prize for economics, manuel arellano argued that a nation without good administrative data is like a hospital system without access to advanced magnetic resonance equipment. i couldn ’ t agree more with this comparison. to have an accurate diagnosis of the problems of an economy it is crucial to be able to observe economic reality in sufficient detail. and, the analysis of an economy in high resolution is possible thanks to the empirical analysis of data, of microdata in particular, using, of course, the appropriate econometric methods. indeed, in recent decades, the analysis of microdata has revolutionised research in the social sciences1 and policy evaluation. the availability of granular data, together with the development of innovative econometric methods, has radically changed the way researchers approach and understand social issues. at the same time, economists are increasingly being given the opportunity to help governments design new policies and regulations2. and, in this respect, we should bear in mind that carefully designed scientific experiments have been an engine of economic, technological, and social progress. social experiments have become crucial to ensure that governments implement policies with a proven record of success3, that are based on evidence and not on prejudice or intuition. we are now in a position to create a virtuous circle that begins with the allocation of resources to the compilation of data and the provision of access to them, continues with the evaluation of public policies, and ends with the application of the findings to the design of policies. however, unlike medical trials, social experiments – large - scale, publicly funded randomised controlled trials – have not become the gold standard for the evaluation of public policy interventions. einar, l. y levin, j. ( 2014 ) " the data revolution and economic analysis ", working