= 100 s. a., 2019 / q1 = 100 s. a., 2019 / q1 = 100 nondurable goods < 40. 5 > services < 50. 7 > cy 14 cy durable goods < 8. 9 > 23 24 19 23 24 notes : 1. in the left panel, figures exclude inbound tourism consumption and include outbound tourism consumption, and are based on bank staff calculations. 2. in the right panel, figures in angle brackets show the weights in the cai. figures are based on bank staff calculations. 3. in the right panel, " nondurable goods " includes goods classified as semi - durable goods in the sna. sources : bank of japan ; etc. chart 5 consumption developments based on credit card spending chg. from baseline, % - 10 - 20 - 30 total retail ( excluding energy ) services ( excluding energy ) energy - 40 - 50 - 60 cy 20 notes : 1. figures are from the reference series in jcb consumption now, which take into account changes in the number of consumers. the baseline is the average for the corresponding half of the month for fiscal 2016 through fiscal 2018. 2. figures for the total and for services exclude telecommunications, and figures for energy consist of those for fuel, electricity, gas, heat supply, and water. figures are based on bank staff calculations. source : nowcast inc. / jcb, co., ltd., " jcb consumption now. " chart 6 exports total real exports real exports by region s. a., cy 2020 = 100 united states < 20. 1 > eu < 10. 3 > cy 23 24 19 china < 17. 6 > nies, asean, etc. < 34. 4 > other economies < 17. 6 > 23 24 notes : 1. figures are based on bank staff calculations. 2. figures for 2024 / q2 are those for april. 3. in the right panel, figures in angle brackets show the share of each country or region in japan's total exports in 2023. figures for the eu exclude those for the united kingdom for the entire period. sources : ministry of finance ; bank of japan. chart 7 developments in business fixed investment plans y / y % chg. fy 2024 average ( fy 2004 - 2022 ) - 3 - 6 - 9 mar. fy 2020 fy 2021 fy 2022 fy 2023 june sept. cy 09 s. a., 2019 /

rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less fresh food, excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hikes ) was 1. 3 percent for fiscal 2014, 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2015, and 2. 1 percent for fiscal 2016. b. overseas economies i would now like to give an overview of overseas economies. these are expected to moderately increase their growth rates as advanced economies continue to see firm recovery and its positive effects gradually spread to emerging economies. according to the projections for global economic growth released by the international monetary fund ( imf ) in april 2014 in its world economic outlook, global growth is projected to strengthen to 3. 6 percent in 2014 and then to 3. 9 percent in 2015, rising at a moderate pace to reach a rate exceeding its long - term average. looking at respective major countries and regions, in the united states, real gdp for the january - march quarter of 2014 decreased from the previous quarter, mainly due to the effects of the unusually severe winter weather, but has returned to a moderate recovery trend. as for the outlook, the pace of recovery is expected to gradually rise, led mainly by private demand – such as firm private consumption – as accommodative financial conditions are expected to be maintained and fiscal drag is likely to weaken. the euro area economy is recovering moderately, registering positive growth for four consecutive quarters. although faced with structural problems such as excess debt, it is expected to continue recovering moderately, supported in part by improvement in household and business sentiment. regarding risks to the economy, close attention needs to be paid to a possible prolonged disinflationary trend and the effects of the situation in ukraine and russia. the chinese economy continues to see stable growth, although it has been growing at a somewhat reduced pace, mainly in real estate - related areas. the chinese authorities have taken the stance of continuing to pay consideration to economic activity while progressing with structural reforms, and already have taken some policy measures to underpin economic activity. in addition, external demand is expected to continue improving moderately, mainly in advanced economies, and thus the chinese economy is likely to continue to see stable growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace. meanwhile, some of the other emerging and commodity - exporting economies remain weak in a situation where they are facing issues regarding, for example, current account balance and inflation rates. these economies will likely continue to lack growth momentum for the time being, but are expected to gradually increase their growth rates due to positive effects of the recovery