ll know more, in particular from our emerging - market colleagues what the situation is in their jurisdictions. it ’ s too early to tell whether what we are seeing in global financial markets today can lead to disruptions that can prompt a change in either our growth scenario or our inflation scenario, or whether this is a shift in global demand that would have to take place anyway and that can be managed in a smooth way by the international community. it ’ s too early to tell. just as an example, we haven ’ t seen the exchange rate of the euro going up significantly since the start of the current emerging market developments. we haven ’ t seen that much of a spillover effect on the euro zone so far, which is grounds for cautious optimism. what channels of impact are you watching? generally, the main channel is the output channel. we have to understand whether the current volatility on global markets will have an impact on global output generally. that ’ s why the g20 discussion is so important, since this has to be informed by the imf in particular. so far the jury is still out. in terms of inflation, it sounds like we are teetering on the brink of the danger zone, as ecb president mario draghi talked about. is that a fair assessment? it is a fair assessment, but what we are seeing from incoming data from the real economy in euro zone countries is that all so far confirms that the euro zone economy, both in core and in non - core countries, is on a recovery path. in our baseline scenario, the forces coming from the real economy, i. e. the ongoing strengthening in aggregate demand are enough to countervail disinflationary forces. we will get the 2016 inflation outlook in march. would a rate cut help if it turned out that inflation is moving too slowly back towards the target of below but close to 2 percent? you first have to ask yourself what are the causes for low inflation and in particular whether downward pressures on prices come from the demand or the supply side. that is a very important discussion from a monetary policy standpoint. certainly aggregate demand is weak, which explains a lot the low level of inflation. but we see positive news coming from this side. we see aggregate demand now developing in the euro zone. but on the supply side, we have an ongoing adjustment of relative prices in several countries, which relates to reforms on the labour and on the product markets, in particular through compressed margins. this

, maintained and confirmed through action over time. like individuals, institutions become carriers of reputation as a function of their past behaviour. this reputation forms the basis for expectations of future behaviour. in the case of the european central bank, the institutional preconditions for credible and successful monetary policy are in place. the european central bank is built on trustworthy institutional foundations. as a new institution, however, it started out without a track record and thus cannot rely on an established reputation. the statutes and institutional setup of the ecb have worked very well to date and the governing council of the ecb has taken its monetary policy decisions in full independence. however, to firmly establish trust and reputation takes time. trust is deepened and reputation is built when it is tested in difficult circumstances and when it is maintained over an extended period of time. until a sufficient track record is established, the ecb - by necessity - has to rely primarily on the strength of its institutional setup and the force of its arguments to win the trust of the public. as a new institution it is unsurprising that the ecb has been subject to an extraordinary degree of public scrutiny and, indeed, criticism in its young life. i firmly believe that over time this is generally a healthy situation. over time any public institution, which is based on a sound constitutional foundation, can only benefit from being open to outside advice and from being exposed to criticism and debate. this creates desirable incentives for constant improvement and helps the institution to strengthen its commitment to fulfil its mandate in the best possible way. an open, frank and fair dialogue is particularly crucial in the process of developing understanding and a bond of trust between a young institution like the ecb and its principal, whom it ultimately serves, i. e. the european public. i do believe that this process of trust - building requires some patience and indeed “ good faith ” on both sides. not “ blind faith ”, but perhaps some “ good - will ”. undoubtedly well - established central banks with a long and proud history like the bank of england, the federal reserve or the bundesbank face an easier task in this regard. they can draw on a large stock of “ trust capital ”, an often formidable reputation and a safety net of deep - rooted public support, if not devotion. if i may take the example of the bundesbank, the borderline between trust and quasireligious faith, indeed, becomes very hard to make out. it was jacques del