remains broadly unchanged. the increases in a few categories that were prominent contributors to the monthover - month april core pce reading of 0. 66 percent illustrate the role of temporary frictions associated with the economy ’ s unprecedented reopening. used vehicles, airfares, and accommodations together contributed nearly one - third of month - over - month core pce inflation in april even though the cumulative weight of all three components in the core pce basket is only 3 percent. the major contributors to the april core pce inflation increase are not significant drivers of core inflation historically. see lael brainard ( 2021 ), “ patience and progress as the economy reopens and recovers, ” speech delivered at “ the road to recovery and what ’ s next, ” a virtual conference sponsored by the society for advancing business editing and writing ( via webcast ), may 11, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / brainard20210511a. htm. the used vehicles category contributed just over 0. 1 percentage point to the april core pce reading. on the demand side, stimulus payments and low borrowing rates have given households additional capability to purchase vehicles, and the pandemic appears to have increased the relative value of private transportation. on the supply side, with the limited production of new cars due to the semiconductor shortage, rental car companies have become buyers in the used vehicles market in order to restore the capacity they had shuttered during the pandemic, whereas they would normally be net sellers in this market. as a result, used car prices, which had followed a slight downward trend in the years leading up to the pandemic, jumped a record 10 percent in april. while these pressures may persist over the summer months, i expect them to fade and likely reverse somewhat in subsequent quarters. similarly, the travel - related accommodations and airfare sectors also contributed nearly 0. 1 percentage point to month - over - month core pce inflation. prices in these categories are recovering from depressed values well below their pre - covid levels. prices are expected to continue to rise amid renewed summer travel, but the natural limitations to making up spending on foregone travel are likely to result in a normalization of demand growth after a few quarters, and the capacity in these sectors will likewise increase from their depressed pandemic levels as hiring proceeds. in assessing the risk that such transitory pricing pressures get embedded in persistently

/ / www. atlantafed. org / cqer / research / gdpnow ( accessed may 28, 2021 ). the blue chip consensus forecast for the second quarter was 9. 2 percent in may. looking through the month - to - month variation, the data suggest that very strong underlying spending growth is continuing this quarter, fueled by recent fiscal support and continued reopening. real personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) stepped down slightly in april after surging 4. 1 percent month over month in march due to a strong spend - out that month of fiscal support from the american rescue plan. a similar pattern of moderation in april following outsized strength in march is also evident at the level of individual goods categories, including clothing and general merchandise, as well as spending at sporting goods, hobby, books, and music stores. spending growth is strong in the pandemic - affected services sectors that are reopening, with spending at restaurants and bars increasing 3 percent in april after surging 13. 5 percent in march. the shift in the spending data from march to april provides a useful reminder to exercise caution in extrapolating from individual data points in the current environment. growth this year is expected to be the strongest in decades as the economy bounces back from the depressed level associated with the pandemic. the supplemental savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic from fiscal support and constrained services consumption hold the potential for a substantial amount of additional spending, but there is uncertainty about how much of it is likely to be spent out this year as opposed to being spent out more slowly over time. while the early spend - out from fiscal support in the first quarter of this year was exceptionally strong, whether that strength will be maintained depends in part on the distribution of the remaining additional savings. spending could moderate, for instance, if the additional savings is concentrated among higher - income households that may have already completed many of their durable goods purchases and may return to pre - pandemic consumption of discretionary services rather than making up for the underconsumption during the shutdown. 3 the timing of household consumption out of the accumulated savings will be very important for the strength of demand not just this year, but also next. today ’ s fiscal tailwinds are projected to shift to headwinds next year. so an important question is how much household spending will continue to support growth into next year as opposed to settling back to pre - pandemic trends, which would be an