that they are not reasonably able to identify or manage. our second driver comes from our ongoing work on bank failure management, which some of you will be familiar with. while we are not expecting any banks to fail, we do want to be in a position to discharge our legal responsibilities if one does get into trouble. and one of the things we may well want to do is to continue to operate a bank in statutory management, and keep it as a full participant in the payment system. we also need to be able to act quickly in respect of transactions that are in the various pipelines at the point where a statutory management is declared. to do this, we potentially need fast access to new zealand management, technological and payment system resources. i noted earlier the complexity of the payment system overall, and i don't think that some of these questions have particularly easy answers. we are addressing some of them through our outsourcing policy, but others are likely to require alternative approaches, and some further co - operation with the industry. the goals include ensuring that key systems are designed to be " high availability " ones ; that robust back - up arrangements are in place wherever feasible ; that business continuity plans are effective and mutually consistent ; and that rapid decision - making and communication capability is readily available. for us, this is very much " work in progress " at this point. legislative powers finally, in talking about regulation, i should note that in 2003 the reserve bank was given some formal legal jurisdiction over the payment system for the first time, in a new part 5b of the reserve bank act. the powers basically give us the right to obtain and publish information, and thus to throw a spotlight on any issues of public interest. they do not give us the kind of authority to scrutinise and determine prices, for example, that the payment system board has in australia : here, that kind of role is performed by my former colleagues in the commerce commission, and we are very comfortable with that division of labour. the reserve bank is an advocate for competition and suitably - open access rules in the payment system. in practice the new legislation provides a more formal basis for the kinds of things we have been doing, and does not signal any change in direction. we decided recently to publish the principles we would follow in our payment system oversight work, and these have been put on our website today. you will be able to read them there, so i won't go into them in detail. they

stephen s poloz : release of the monetary policy report opening statement by mr stephen s poloz, governor of the bank of canada, at the press conference following the release of the monetary policy report, ottawa, ontario, 21 january 2015. * * * good morning. carolyn and i are delighted to be here to answer your questions about today ’ s interest rate announcement and our latest monetary policy report ( mpr ). let me begin with a few preliminary remarks. the recent drop in oil prices of course dominates this mpr, and dominated our policy discussions. there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook for oil prices and the implications for the economy. however, every credible scenario for oil left us with a significant issue for monetary policy. we have based our analysis on an assumption for oil prices of about us $ 60 per barrel for the next two years. although this is above current levels, prices seem likely to move back above $ 60 in the medium term. the drop in oil prices is unambiguously negative for the canadian economy. canada ’ s income from oil exports will be reduced, and investment and employment in the energy sector are already being cut. there will be some offsets, but they are both partial and of uncertain timing : canadian consumers will spend less on energy, but they could save some of the windfall rather than spend it ; u. s. economic growth will be stronger, which – along with a lower canadian dollar – should boost canadian exports, but the speed of the export response is uncertain given the export capacity losses of the last decade. the bank has been projecting a natural sequence of higher non - energy exports, higher investment and higher employment, which is needed to restore balance to the canadian economy and reduce financial stability risks. this sequence is gaining traction and will be strengthened by the combination of lower oil prices, stronger u. s. growth and a lower canadian dollar. however, these encouraging developments will be masked during the first half of 2015 by the impact of lower oil prices on the energy sector. later in the year, growth in canada ’ s nonenergy economy should re - emerge as our dominant trend. but the first - half slowdown represents a material setback in the bank ’ s projected return to full employment and sustainable 2 per cent inflation. let me now give you some additional insight into our policy deliberations. based on our assumption of oil prices at $ 60 a barrel, our first projection implied that it would take until late 2017 for the economy to