##hang of unsold homes, building activity will remain subdued through most of this year or longer. nonresidential construction will likely continue to contract this year, due to high vacancy rates in that sector. these are important negatives but by themselves should not derail the recovery. looking at the economy more broadly, inflation has drifted lower in recent months, which is typical following a recession. while energy prices have kept consumer price inflation around 2 percent, inflation in non - food and non - energy prices – which is core inflation – has been running at rates of around 1 percent. these inflation rates are likely to continue for the next year or so. however, as the economic recovery continues or picks up momentum, i expect inflation to drift higher. as for risks to this outlook, there are several. the fluid situation in greece and europe reminds us to be wary. the european debt problems have increased uncertainty and a renewed aversion to risks, and are causing investors to flee riskier assets such as stocks and junk bonds for safer assets such as u. s. treasury debt. these shifts will have a modest negative net effect on u. s. economic growth in the near term. as an aside, i would note this episode illustrates the longer run danger of running persistent budget deficits – a situation that we must soon address in the united states. monetary policy it is within the context of this outlook and its longer run implications that the federal open market committee must balance its objectives of supporting short - run economic growth and long - run stable growth and low inflation. it also is within the context of this outlook and these objectives that policy must be normalized, as reflected in the level of real interest rates and the size and composition of the federal reserve ’ s combined balance sheet. achieving such multiple objectives requires deft handling. but most certainly, the first step toward a more normal policy is to move policy rates off zero, back toward neutral. in saying this, i have no illusions about the challenges of moving away from zero. but in my judgment, the process should begin sooner to avoid the danger of having to over compensate later, as so often happens in policy. i would begin the normalization of policy by outlining for the public a two - step process : first, the federal reserve would continue to unwind its extraordinary policy actions implemented as a response to the financial turmoil that began in the fall of 2008. the market ’ s need for these facilities has eased and we have closed most of

‘ disaster risk financing : the role of insurance in new public - private partnerships ’ speech by luigi federico signorini president of ivass ania insurance high level conference rome, 20 september 2024 ladies and gentlemen, once again we are seeing dramatic images of floods, damages and losses. the images that we just saw in the walk - in video for this conference are surely older, but could have been taken yesterday. our hearts and thoughts are with those that have been hit, not just this time but also in the previous months, some repeatedly. we must hope that human life has been spared this time, although i understand that as of this morning some are still missing. this is another reminder of the seriousness of the climate issue. we cannot be in denial. the accelerating change in the earth ’ s climate has increased the frequency and intensity of river and coastal floods, landslides, droughts and forest fires worldwide. europe, in particular, is warming quite fast ; according to copernicus ( the european satellite monitoring system ), the average temperature for european land in august 2024 was more than 1. 5°c above the 1991 - 2020 average for the same month. in addition to climate - related events, other natural disasters such as earthquakes, tidal waves, volcanic eruptions and bradyseism can have a dramatic impact on the economy and society. the issue of natural disasters and, more generally, catastrophe risks, once confined to scholars of the ‘ hard ’ sciences, such as physicists and biologists, has become an area of concern for economists, sociologists and lawyers as well. as a consequence, one sees among other things more and more attempts at measuring the economic impact of natural events in a reliable way. the 2023 european state of the climate report estimates the direct damage to property generated in 2023 by floods, inundations and fires ( disregarding, that is, indirect effects ) at more than €13 billion, and the human toll at 151 deaths1. over the past few years, there has also been a growing attention see the european centre for medium - range weather forecasts - ecmwf - 2023 european state of the climate. in international fora2 to natural disasters as a potential source of systemic financial stability risk. the literature on disaster relief suggests that a purely ex - post approach to damage repair and loss compensation is likely to be sub - optimal. prevention is of course necessary at various levels. in my speech, as befits the occasion and