results are " not always bad and not always good. " i would have to agree that gentrification is complicated and requires thorough thought and planning as neighborhood revitalization strategies are developed. many strategies are being developed at the local level to address the increasing need for affordable housing ; these strategies include housing trust funds, private activity bonds, and community land trusts, to name just a few. the federal reserve bank of richmond is currently studying patterns of home price changes and gentrification in neighborhoods here in washington, d. c. the work is intended to assist city governments, community development corporations, and funders in anticipating and mitigating the effects of gentrification on lower - income residents. as difficult as the challenges seem, i am confident that if policymakers, researchers, and public and private community development practitioners continue to work together, they will be able to balance new investments with strategies to encourage affordable housing options for sustainable and equitable community development. in the meantime, my colleagues at the board of governors and i are committed to sustaining a noninflationary economic expansion and a healthy financial system, which should create a solid foundation for the development of new business opportunities. of course, although a strong economy and vibrant capital markets are necessary to establish a solid market - based foundation for economic development, they are not sufficient. successful community development projects require vision, commitment, tough choices, and hard work. indeed, these are the qualities that each of the projects honored here tonight share. i am pleased to be able to give my personal congratulations to tonight ’ s honorees and to social compact for leading the way in the effort to uncover the market potential of inner - city neighborhoods through innovation, risk taking, and the sharing of results.

that some of the recovery in prices is due to supply disruption that will probably be temporary, so we should reserve judgment. the more important reason, though, is that it ’ s highly uncertain what price level will rebalance the oil market on a sustained basis. it certainly looks as though prices will not be returning to their old highs in the foreseeable future. oil companies and their suppliers and service providers have found many ways to cut costs, and this is lowering break - even prices. this means that new oil supply can come back on stream profitably – especially in us shale plays – at lower prices than before, perhaps putting a lid on further price increases. the recent pickup in oil prices is, of course, welcome, because it means a boost to canadian income for every barrel exported. but an extended period of oil prices at recent levels is unlikely to lead to greater investment spending in the canadian oil patch. indeed, market bis central bankers ’ speeches intelligence suggests there is further downside risk to investment at these still - low price levels. accordingly, this remains a potential source of downside risk to our forecast. risk 4 : will consumers rein in their spending? the fourth risk we ’ ve been giving special attention to is the possibility that canadian households might become more cautious in their spending. at the heart of this uncertainty is the high level of household debt. it is natural to expect that, at some point, households will rein in their spending and put more effort into paying down their debt. there is no evidence of this downside risk so far, however. indeed, data from the first quarter show that household spending, including big - ticket items such as motor vehicle sales and housing, has remained strong. nevertheless, we will need to remain alert for signs that this risk is emerging. low interest rates and a resilient job market have certainly helped sustain consumer spending, and the tax rate changes that the government introduced at the beginning of the year may also be playing a role. we also think spending is being supported by the impact of cheaper gasoline, since the average canadian household is spending about $ 600 less per year to fill their tank. on the other side of the ledger, the decline in the canadian dollar has raised the price of a wide range of imports. a strong consumer is, of course, a key contributor to canada ’ s strong housing market. however, a number of other factors are at play, as seen in the significant regional divergences in housing sales and prices.