william c dudley : the recovery and monetary policy remarks by mr william c dudley, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york and chairman of the committee on the global financial system ( cgfs ), at the national association for business economics annual meeting, new york city, 15 october 2012. * * * good morning. it is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak at this nabe ( national association for business economics ) conference today. having spent more than 20 years as a business economist working in the private sector before joining the federal reserve bank of new york in 2007, i feel right at home here today. my remarks will focus on the economic outlook. i do this with some trepidation, of course. in the private sector there are two adages about forecasting that underscore the need to be humble in this endeavor : first, forecast often. second, specify a level or a time horizon, but never specify both, together. but more seriously, despite the difficulties in making accurate forecasts, we still need to understand as best we can why the economy is performing the way it is, what that implies about the economic outlook, and, how policymakers can respond to generate better outcomes. we live in a highly complex and uncertain world, but we need to make as much sense out of it as possible. as always, what i have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the fomc ( federal open market committee ) or the federal reserve system. my attention today will be on three important questions : • why has the u. s. recovery been so sluggish and consistently weaker than expected? • what should we, as monetary policymakers, do it about it? • what other policy actions are needed to help ensure a timely transition to strong and sustainable growth? the disappointing recovery turning to the first question, u. s. economic growth has been quite sluggish in recent years. for example, annualized real gdp ( gross domestic product ) growth has averaged only about 2. 2 percent since the end of the recession in 2009. as a consequence, we have seen only modest improvement in the u. s. labor market. not only has growth been slow, it has also been disappointing relative to the forecasters ’ expectations. for example, the blue chip consensus have been persistently too optimistic in recent years. this is illustrated in exhibit 1 which shows how private sector forecasts for 2008 through 2013 have evolved over

john c williams : the joys of spring remarks by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the 21st annual bronx bankers breakfast, bronx, new york, 10 may 2019. * * * as prepared for delivery it ’ s an honor to be kicking off bronx week, and i ’ d like to thank borough president ruben diaz, jr., for the kind invitation. i first visited the bronx — and first met ruben — back in november, when i also spent time with students discussing their plans for the future. i was particularly impressed by their talent, energy, and enthusiasm, which is a true reflection of this vibrant and proud community. today i ’ m going to share some brief remarks on the national and global economy. i ’ ll then discuss what that means for monetary policy today and going forward. for me, the most interesting part of this event is hearing and responding to your questions, so please, don ’ t be shy when i open the floor for discussion. i ’ ve warned you that monetary policy is on the agenda, so before i go any further, i have to give the usual fed disclaimer that everything i say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the federal open market committee or anyone else in the federal reserve system. the u. s. economy with that out of the way, let me start by saying the u. s. economy is in a very good place. late last year, as the long, dark winter closed in, there were considerable jitters in financial markets, with some observers fretting that the economy may be on the verge of a hard landing. indeed, there was a lot of talk about the possibility of a recession looming. i am happy to report that the economy has emerged from the new york freeze. the sun is out, the tulips and the cherry blossom are now in full bloom and the picture of the economy is similarly rosy. in the first four months of the year, the u. s. economy added over 800, 000 jobs, and the unemployment rate is now 3. 6 percent — the lowest level in nearly 50 years. the latest gdp numbers indicate that the economy remained in high gear through the first quarter, with growth clocking in at an impressive 3. 2 percent annual rate. despite this very strong economy, we are not seeing any signs of inflationary pressures. in fact, the latest inflation data have come in lower than expected,