outlook for the financial system? have the “ extraordinary ” measures taken had an effect and how should they be phased out? even after we have landed properly it will be necessary to keep our balance. but the road ahead may be difficult to negotiate. so how do we create a better and more sustainable structure for the financial markets both nationally and globally? i do not have the perfect answers to all of these questions. i doubt that anyone has. but i shall spend the next 20 minutes trying to answer them to the best of my ability. and i hope this will provide a good basis for the coming hearing. monetary policy and the economic situation the downturn in the world economy has been very rapid and severe – in this way the worst in many decades. sweden is an export - dependent economy and has been hit hard partly because of this. it will take time before the economy is back at the same level as prior to the crisis. but now we have come so far that the recovery has begun. one important component to which i shall also return is that the conditions on the financial markets have improved. several indicators are also showing that confidence in the future among both companies and households has become much stronger, an important factor in the economic recovery ( figure 1 ). figure 1. confidence indicators, net figures, seasonally - adjusted data - 10 - 10 - 20 - 20 househoulds - 30 - 30 total business sector - 40 - 40 source : national institute of economic research the recovery will take time but although growth will recover during the final two quarters of this year, we believe that gdp in sweden will fall by more than 4 per cent in 2009. and it will take a long time before the economy is back at the same level as prior to the crisis. 2009 will be the first year since the 1940s in which gdp falls in the world as a whole. but, all in all, there are many indications that the growth rate abroad and in sweden has bottomed out and will rise in the years ahead ( figure 2 ). figure 2. gdp level, index 2007 q4 = 100 usa euro area sweden sources : bureau of economic analysis, eurostat, statistics sweden and the riksbank. with regard to the labour market, we are assuming that it will remain weak and that unemployment will continue rising until the end of next year. employment will not increase until the beginning of 2011. historically, it is usually the case that employment recovers with some time lag after production has picked up

christine lagarde : remarks on the occasion of receiving the grand prix de l ’ economie 2019 from les echos speech by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the " grand prix de l ’ economie des echos pour l ’ annee 2019 ", paris, 5 february 2020. * * * it ’ s a great honour to be awarded this prize, and to receive it in the presence of so many leading figures from the french business community. the environment facing european business today is characterised by both uncertainty in the short term and a changing landscape in the longer term. the short - term uncertainties are mainly related to global risks – trade, geopolitical and now the outbreak of the coronavirus and its potential effect on global growth. over the last two years, the euro area economy has been quite resilient to global shocks, with our accommodative monetary policy supporting employment and consumption. and, though gdp growth in the last quarter was weak, it was broadly in line with our expectations. but while the threat of a trade war between the united states and china appears to have receded, the coronavirus adds a new layer of uncertainty. so we ’ re continuing to monitor closely how these risks develop and how they feed into our central scenario for the economy. in the face of these uncertainties, the ecb ’ s forward guidance on interest rates and asset purchases acts as an effective automatic stabiliser. the longer - term picture is different. ambitious proposals are gathering momentum within europe today and look set to profoundly reshape the environment for business. in particular, two big ambitions are pervading many aspects of policymaking in ways that create change, but also opportunity : the goal to build real “ european autonomy ” ; and the aim to urgently fight the consequences of climate change. i know that, as business leaders, you naturally seek the new opportunities that emerge for your companies in such times. so i ’ d like today to talk about how i see these ambitions evolving, and where they intersect with the tasks and priorities of the ecb. european autonomy we all have a sense of the world around us moving more quickly. the post - war global order is fracturing, tensions between great powers are rising and technological change is transforming the way we produce, distribute and consume. this environment clearly exposes europe to new types of risk, as demonstrated today, for example, by the turn towards protectionist policies and