fed watcher until september 17, 2018. it has also been the inference of some private - sector forecasters as well as some other fomc participants. for example, see janet l. yellen ( 2017 ), “ the economic outlook and the conduct of monetary policy, ” speech delivered at the stanford institute for economic policy research, stanford university, stanford, calif., january 19, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / newsevents / speech / yellen20170119a. htm. - 8stressed, r * and u * are uncertain, and i believe we should continue to update our estimates of them as new data arrive. this process of learning about r * and u * as new data arrive supports the case for gradual policy normalization, as it will allow the fed to accumulate more information from the data about the ultimate destination for the policy rate and the unemployment rate at a time when inflation is close to our 2 percent objective.

choose to reveal such information in their speeches and other public communications. a natural next step would be to include a matrix of output, inflation, and unemployment, and the associated policy path assumptions that each policymaker submitted. this would make the information in the sep easier to interpret and give a better sense of the linkage between changes in economic conditions and policy. second, i believe the federal reserve should do a more comprehensive monetary policy report four times a year. currently, the chairman testifies before congress twice a year – in bis central bankers ’ speeches fact, he is doing so today – and that testimony is accompanied by a written report. in addition, the chairman holds press briefings four times a year to summarize the sep. i think there is an opportunity to combine these efforts in a more comprehensive report on monetary policy. most central banks that have adopted an inflation target have also sought to improve communication and transparency through the publication of a regular policy report. in the u. k., for example, the bank of england issues a quarterly inflation report. other countries produce a monetary policy report that discusses the central bank ’ s forecasts and the longerterm context of policy. these reports offer an opportunity to reinforce the underlying framework the central bank has adopted for the conduct of policy. i think the fed should consider producing a similar report to elaborate and reinforce its policy framework and how it relates to economic conditions. these reports will help improve the public ’ s understanding of policy, which will help make policy more effective and the central bank more accountable. third, i believe the fomc should adopt clearer guidelines on how policy evolves with economic conditions. the better the public and the markets understand how policy is likely to be adjusted as the economy changes, the more predictable policy becomes, which promotes price stability and better economic outcomes. the history of u. s. monetary policy is filled with stops and starts and changes in direction, yet the fed has communicated little about what drives those decisions. indeed, historically, central bankers have tended not to reveal such information, since they preferred discretionary policy over systematic policy. of course, policymakers do not know with any degree of certainty how economic conditions will evolve. so they cannot and should not say with any certainty what policy will be in the future. but policymakers can provide information about the factors that will influence their policy decisions. some call this a policy rule. milton friedman advocated a rule in the form of a k - percent growth rate of the money