of the euro rather painlessly. eight years is too short a period for a definitive assessment of the pros and cons of a monetary union, but let me draw some tentative conclusions from our experiences thus far. in spite of these asymmetric shocks, it can be said that the single monetary policy has suited finland's economy rather well. this is indicated among other things by the fact that, except for the initial period, finland's inflation has remained for the most time within the range of the ecb's definition for price stability and in fact in recent years has been among the lowest ones in the eu. at the same time employment and output have grown well in comparison to most of the other euro area countries. on top of which, the profitability of finland's industry has been at a good level. our experience seems to indicate that even in a small and'asymmetric'country the ecb's credible monetary policy and stability orientation can offer a large majority of the citizens and enterprises a sound monetary environment.

off event and will, therefore, fall off from the inflation calculation in 2022. second, the increase in administered prices announced or estimated for 2022 are no higher than those for 2021 and, therefore, should not result in an acceleration in inflation. third, domestic aggregate demand remains modest relative to supply. associated thereto, the projected economic growth, of 4. 3 percent in 2022, is below growth potential ; and, therefore, output gap remains negative, hence non - inflationary. fourth, while global inflation is similarly rising, the projected trading partner inflation is within the bank ’ s objective range of 3 – 6 percent. notwithstanding, i should be quick to point out that the risks to the inflation outcome are skewed to the upside. notably, as i have just indicated, this relates to second round effects and expectations ; larger increase in commodity prices ( especially energy prices ) than currently incorporated in the inflation forecast, particularly emanating from current geopolitical tensions, as the talk of a possible war in europe intensifies ; short - term unintended consequences of import restrictions ; and persistence of supply and logistical constraints due to lags in production. against these, are the downside risks to inflation which include, weaker economic activity than projected, reemergence of virulent covid - 19 variants ( winter months are coming ) and resultant restrictions on economic activity, and lower international commodity prices than currently projected. 2022 monetary policy stance and reforms to monetary operations distinguished ladies and gentlemen, as currently projected, the medium - term outlook for inflation remains favourable and is in the context of moderate growth in economic activity and dissipation of the effects of increase in administered prices and modest impact of external price developments. ordinarily, this should augur well for maintenance of accommodative monetary policy that supports productive lending to businesses and households. however, given the significant upside risks to the inflation outlook in the short - term and possibility of elevated inflation expectations, the policy posture may need to be calibrated to respond, in an appropriate, timely and measured manner, to price developments in 2022. turning to exchange rate policy implementation, as announced at the beginning of the year and broadly consistent with botswana ’ s trade pattern, the weights of the constituent currencies in the pula basket are 45 percent for the south african rand and 55 percent for the sdr. a downward rate of crawl of 2. 87 percent of the nominal effective exchange rate is