rate for ultra - orthodox women is very similar to the general average. in contrast, employments rates for men are particularly low. over time, we can see a sharp increase in employment among ultra - orthodox women, but we cannot distinguish such a trend among ultra - orthodox men. this is also obviously a result of education trends – the rate of higher education among the ultra - orthodox population is particularly low, and we cannot distinguish a higher rate of those holding an academic degree among the younger population, which is certainly a worrying phenomenon. we can see that among the ultra - orthodox students, there is a focus on professions such as business management and law, and that among women there is also a focus on therapeutic professions. over time, we do not see growth in the rate of those with higher education among ultra - orthodox men. there is no doubt that the way to integrate successfully in the labor market is to obtain an academic education. we can see that those holding degrees enjoy much higher rates of employment, and much higher wage levels, than those who do not hold such a degree. there is broad agreement regarding the policy measures required in order to increase education and employment rates among the ultra - orthodox sector. these need to be implemented : • it is important that the education system provide an infrastructure that will assist in obtaining a higher education later in life. • the variety of higher education fields must be expanded so that it boosts broad and variegated integration in the labor market. • it is important to adapt the professional training program to the needs of the labor market, while relating to various population groups. investment in professional training in israel is relatively low, and it is important to expand it among the general population, not just in the ultra - orthodox sector. • an expansion of the active labor market policy is required. • it is important that employers be ready to absorb employees from all sectors and population groups. employers who are open to taking on employees from the sectors with which they are less familiar will enjoy a broader variety of manpower that is available to them. these policy tools can provide the opportunity. in the end, it is the individual that needs to take that opportunity. as such, i am very happy to say these things here, before a group of students that have chosen to obtain an academic education and make the required effort to successfully integrate in the israeli labor market. bis central bankers ’ speeches

components that are not reflected in lucas ’ s paper : 1. the single individual is exposed to greater risks than the average individual. 2. the path of growth on its own is subject to volatility and is not certain. 3. the significant impact of financial cycles on the business cycles. for now, i will expand a little on each of them. a more correct assumption for the model, which is closer to the economic reality, is that the single individual is exposed to greater risks than the average individual. therefore, when the distribution of risk among the individuals is not uniform, aggregate data do not necessarily provide the complete picture. a more simplistic description of this assumption is used a lot in describing the statistical average, ignoring variance and volatility : “ you can also drown in a pool with an average depth of 20 cm. " so when examining the change in the effect of volatility on different population groups in different situations, the “ consumption insurance premium ” that lucas thought was negligible becomes positive in the model and significant in “ real life ". for instance, during a recession, most of the public that continues to work and receive wages feels the recession only on the margins, while workers who have been laid off take a serious hit. from the point of view, a reduction in volatility would have led to a very large advantage. another parameter that needs to be taken into account is that, as opposed to lucas ’ s assumption, the path of growth actually is subject to volatility and is not certain. economists who took this into account in their models, such as obestfeld ( 194 ), and dolmes ( 1998 ) actually found that the effect of shocks is prolonged. as such, if the shocks affect consumption over time, and are not limited to short - term volatility of consumption, then the value of stability — the “ consumption insurance premium " — is high. those shocks that we mentioned have an effect that is not uniform. positive business cycles accelerate the economy, while negative business cycles moderate it asymmetrically, so that the volatility itself has a negative impact on the path of growth. a study by yellin and eckerloff ( 2004 ) shows that unemployment responds asymmetrically to changes in inflation, such that a stabilizing policy may increase gdp by 0. 5 – 0. 8 percent per year on average. one of the studies that helps to 2 / 4 bis central bankers '