me, consider that the imbalances comprise a serious risk to the world economy and that the longer they remain, the greater the risk of negative effects arising from a correction. the most probable scenario in the near future, according to the riksbank and most other analysts, is that there will be an orderly, gradual correction of the imbalances with manageable effects on the world economy. in the long term, demographical factors, such as a larger percentage of elderly people in the population of the rapidly - growing asian countries, also argue in favour of a correction taking place in the form of reduced private saving. however, one cannot rule out the possibility of a more abrupt adjustment of the imbalances, which could have considerable negative effects on the world economy. there are two possible scenarios that could trigger a more abrupt adjustment. one is that the us households choose to rapidly increase their saving, for instance, out of worry over future financing of general government healthcare and the pension system. a slowdown in saving could also trigger a fall in house prices, which could in turn further reduce saving. the second scenario could be that investors change their perception of potential growth in the united states and the growth and income advantage which one previously thought would persist. this would mean that interest expenditure on the foreign debt could be perceived as untenable and trigger rising interest rates and rising costs for the us foreign debt. in both of these scenarios there is a slowdown in growth in us consumption, which could have major effects on global economic activity. one can also imagine that an international economic slowdown would be reinforced by a fall in house prices and a change in the view of the united states as a borrower, which could lead to an abrupt slowdown in the world economy. the global imbalances and the threats to jobs from the increasingly stiff competition have triggered increased demands for protectionism, both in the us congress and in europe. a downturn in the world economy could trigger a wave of protectionist measures, such as trade barriers and customs tariffs, which could further worsen an economic downswing. for a small country like sweden that is dependent on foreign trade, an abrupt adjustment of the imbalances could have a severe impact on the economy. a rapid fall in the dollar rate would probably be followed by an upturn in the euro, which could push down european companies ’ competitiveness and slow down growth in the euro zone. this would subdue growth in sweden, which has around 40 per

assessment of the region on the financial market development in the global competitiveness report. the region is positioned in the middle of the scored countries, and the see region has the poorest ranking. while some of the reasons for the low capital market development might be linked to demand factors ( dominance of eu green paper on capital markets, https : / / eur - lex. europa. eu / legal - content / en / txt / pdf /? uri = celex : 52015dc0063 & from = en. stock exchanges were established at different points in the transition process : bulgaria, hungary, poland, russia and slovenia opened their stock markets in 1990 – 91 ; the czech republic, lithuania and the slovak republic followed in 1993 ; latvia and romania were next in 1995, followed by estonia in 1996. turkey ’ s stock exchange was established much earlier than those of the transition countries, in early - 1986. smes that are more prone to bank credits ), some of the causes are related to supply - side factors. and when discussing the latter group of reasons, commonly four important aspects are highlighted : 1 ) the role of equity ; 2 ) the role of institutional investors ; 3 ) household preference for bank deposits and 4 ) regulatory environment. when it comes to equity, a large distance compared to the eu - 28 average is visible in the area of financing through local equity market and venture capital availability, with a rank of 90 and 74 ( eu - 28 average rank is 61 and 55 ). yet, concerning the availability of venture capital, some cesee countries ( the baltics, czech republic, slovakia, bulgaria, macedonia ) score rather well, reflecting the public support and a favorable regulatory environment. “ this is encouraging given the importance of this financing channel for start - ups and innovative companies ”. chart 13 : financial market development, ranking based on the global competiveness report financial market development ( ranking based on 138 countries, 2016 ) 120. 0 100. 0 83. 0 69. 4 80. 0 68. 9 60. 0 55. 8 44. 7 40. 0 20. 0 0. 0 see cee baltics region venture capital availability ( ranking based on 138 countries, 2016 ) financing through local equity market ( ranking based on 138 countries, 2016 ) 120. 0 eu - 28 120. 0 101. 2 100. 0 100. 0 90. 5 90. 4 80. 0 86. 2 80. 0 73. 0 61.