: growth : 2 per cent p. a. 1966 1981 1996 2011 2026 2041 2056 2071 2086 2101 2116 own calculations. finally, let us assume that the economy continues to increase by kr. 40 billion a year over the next 100 years. in that case, the annual growth rate will gradually decline from 2 per cent today to around 0. 7 per cent in 2116 – and kr. 40 billion per year for 100 years in a row ( with the resultant declining growth rate ) will still treble gdp to approximately kr. 6, 000 billion at present value. if we instead take future growth rates of 2 per cent p. a. as our point of departure, resulting in gdp of kr. 14, 000 billion in 2116, the annual increase in the economy 100 years down the line would have to be approximately kr. 280 billion a year at present value. there is absolutely nothing wrong with applying growth rates, but their significance to economic progress cannot be separated from the level of gdp. this becomes more evident as the time horizon increases.

new nairu. economists have been surprised by the fact that the nairu has been continuously revised downwards. the supply of labour has increased more than expected, so there were reservoirs of labour. it could be migration or longer working hours. it is clear that if you believe that the degree of slack is higher, then the process of convergence to below, but close to, 2 % over the medium term would be drawn out. we should not draw implications for policy immediately but it shows you the richness of the discussion at a stage where the economy is booming and we don ’ t see very strong wage increases and little pass through to prices. however, we still see improvements in the path of inflation, so the bottom line is not bad at all. it means that the economy may have unexploited potential capacity. if slack is bigger, wouldn ’ t it mean that the path would be shallower? 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches well, other things being equal, it would be shallower. another explanation for low wage growth is that there is some backward looking behaviour in the wage - setting mechanism and in inflation expectations. for the time being i take an open view. monetary policy also plays a role. our asset purchases programme has a minimum horizon of end september, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until we see a sustained adjustment in inflation. it is true that when we communicate about what happens beyond september, we want to have confirmation of data. things are going in the right direction but there are a number of uncertainties. so the message is patience, persistence and prudence. when do you need to communicate what happens beyond september? it can ’ t be on the very last day, but i argue that it shouldn ’ t be too early, either. there are not too many governing council meetings between now and then. can you see a scenario that you use the june projections to set up the decision and then take the actual decision in july? the projection exercise is always important. there are four per year and there will be one in june. it ’ s true that projections in general are useful to guide and structure the discussion. but i would caution against concluding that there is a pattern. we should not put too much weight on the projections. you mentioned earlier that market expects the first rate hike between the first and second quarters of next year. how comfortable with those expectations? the expectation implicit in the forward curve currently fluctuates around april and