financial stability and credit markets in europe : opportunities and risks in the current setting professor claudia m. buch ( deutsche bundesbank ) dinner talk at the second suddeutsche zeitung conference on the topic of “ private debt and direct lending ” frankfurt am main 18 september 2018 it is nearly ten years ago to the day that the global financial crisis reached its initial peak. the global economic crisis that followed was the most severe since the great depression. in the wake of the crisis, reforms to the financial markets were introduced with the aim of making financial markets more resilient, and many of these reforms have already been implemented. after all, the stability of the financial system is a key prerequisite for an efficient and dynamic economy. just as preventive medical care and a good immune system help to limit the effects of disease, a prudent approach coupled with good defences helps the financial system to mitigate the effects of economic shocks. the question today is how far the international financial system is better placed to deal with unexpected developments than it was just a decade ago. the global economy is currently fraught with uncertainty on a number of fronts. geopolitical tensions have escalated, and trade disputes have erupted, some of which threaten to tip into a trade war. in europe it is unclear under what circumstances the united kingdom will leave the european union. germany's economy may be booming right now, but every period of growth, no matter how long it lasts, ultimately gives way to an economic downturn. how well prepared is the german financial system to face a potential economic slump? what happens if risks materialise? with the global economy in good shape and interest rates low, risks can be underestimated. the world economy is currently doing well. according to calculations by the international monetary fund ( imf ), global growth will amount to 3. 9 % both this year and next year ( imf 2018 ). for the coming year, the imf is forecasting only a slight fall in growth from 2. 4 % to 2. 2 % for industrial countries and from 2. 2 % to 1. 9 % for the euro area. at the same time, the imf has emphasised that this growth is not without risk and that some risks are already materialising. for example, the debt level in some emerging market economies has gone up sharply in recent years, and these liabilities are often denominated in foreign currency. this has created vulnerabilities which have

andreas dombret : the savings bank sector – challenges and opportunities speech by dr andreas dombret, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the handelsblatt annual conference “ future strategies for savings banks and landesbanken ”, berlin, 26 february 2015. * 1. * * introduction president fahrenschon ladies and gentlemen thank you for your invitation. i am delighted to be able to speak to you again today at the handelsblatt annual conference, and i hope that this year ’ s prestigious event will be as successful as those in the past. the title of this year ’ s annual conference is “ future strategies for savings banks and landesbanken ”. so let ’ s take a brief look at what the future might hold in store and discuss the key challenges that lie ahead for the savings bank sector. do you know swimmy, a parable by the author and illustrator leo lionni? it ’ s a story about a shoal of red fish swimming together through the vast and wide ocean. now, i can ’ t say for sure if the shade of red is hks 13 – the business colour famously associated with savings banks – but i can nonetheless make out a number of clear parallels to the savings bank sector. leo lionni ’ s parable tells us that the fish can only overcome the many dangers and challenges they face on their journey through the ocean if they stick together as a shoal. it also shows us that each fish has a role to play within the shoal. and equally, it ’ s fair to say that the “ shoal of savings banks ” has navigated the choppy waters of the financial crisis pretty well – aided not least by the savings banks association ’ s compartmentalised structure. germany ’ s savings banks are generally highly trusted institutions, not least on account of their strong commitment to their local area and their close, often long - term customer relations. however, some savings banks have most certainly fared better than others, and the same can indeed be said for the landesbanken. and in the wake of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, new challenges are already looming on the horizon for the savings bank sector, and i would like, if i may, to discuss the two most pressing issues. the first concerns the outside world – the ocean in which the shoal of fish is swimming, if you will. the other is about the internal make - up – that is to