in its market share in favour of emerging economies. this is merely a reflection of the growing significance of these countries for the global economy. 7 accordingly, many eu countries have witnessed similar developments. there are, however, two very divergent developments responsible for this aggregate trend ; both of which proved highly beneficial for switzerland in dealing with the latest crisis. while many european countries intensified their trade relations with the emerging economies of eastern europe as part of the eu ’ s expansion eastwards ( cf. chart 1a ), swiss exporters focused more on the asian market ( cf. chart 1b ). as a result, switzerland ’ s share of exports to emerging asia – not including the four tiger economies – practically doubled in the last 20 years, and recently amounted to around 6 %, compared to around 4. 5 % for the eu. 8 chart 1a chart 1b sources : imf direction of trade statistics ( dots ) 9, federal customs administration ( fca ). this divergence in the regional focus becomes even more apparent when asia is viewed as a whole. this is because switzerland maintains far closer trade ties with asia ’ s industrialised countries than the eu does, particularly with the four asian tiger economies of hong kong, the usd value of goods exports to developing and emerging economies ( excluding the tiger economies of hong kong, singapore, south korea and taiwan ) has grown by an average of 7. 5 % since 1990, i. e. it has quadrupled. goods exports to industrialised counties increased by 4. 7 % annually during the same period, representing an increase by a factor of only 2. 5. from 1990 to 2008, the gdp of developing and emerging economies rose by an average of almost 8 % ( china alone grew by more than 10 % ). the gdp of the eu15, by contrast, rose by just 1. 9 % on average ( us : 2. 7 % ). the usd value of swiss goods exports to emerging asia ( excluding the tiger economies ) has grown by an average of 9. 1 % since 1990 ( since 2000 : 18 % ). the corresponding growth rates for germany amounted to 11. 4 % ( since 2000 : 17. 8 % ), and for the eu, 9. 6 % ( since 2000 : 13. 6 % ). including intra - eu trade. singapore, south korea and taiwan. overall, switzerland ’ s share of exports to asia, including japan, came to 15 % last year – more than twice the eu average. 10

only a gradual improvement in the economy and employment. to put it plainly, these housing - related headwinds are part of why i do not expect growth greater than 4 percent this year. and while 4 percent is not terrible, at that rate it will still take a very long time to get back to full employment. the second key question is, how concerned should we all be about a flare - up in inflation – and aren ’ t the measures the fed has taken inflationary? many have expressed concern that federal reserve policy actions that expanded our balance sheet dramatically will cause inflation. i firmly believe that in the short run inflation is likely to remain quite low – and that in the longer term we have the tools, and the steadfast commitment, to address inflationary pressures. indeed, while monetary policy works with lags, i would note that it has been more than two years since the fed ’ s balance sheet expanded dramatically. since that time, core inflation of course, the views i express today are my own, not necessarily those of my colleagues on the board of governors or the federal open market committee ( the fomc ). bis central bankers ’ speeches has fallen and core inflation measures using the cpi or pce indexes are at something like 50 year lows. today i will briefly address the role of the low inflation rate for the economy and policymaking. in doing so, i will discuss why inflation concerns have not materialized to date, and why i expect core inflation to remain below 2 percent over the next several years. question 1 : housing and the economic recovery the economic recovery officially began in the third quarter of 2009, according to the organization responsible for dating our recessions – the national bureau of economic research ( nber ). despite being a year and a half into the official recovery, the recovery period has been so tepid that there has been very little improvement in the percentage of the population employed ( see figure 1 ). the percent of the population employed in december was 58. 3, close to the low of this cycle and below the 59. 3 percent employed in july of 2009, when the recovery officially started. for context, the number was around 63 percent when the recession began. the recent stability of the employment - to - population ratio reflects the poor labor market performance of the current recovery. we are simply not generating enough jobs to reduce the number of unemployed persons. nor are we, by the way, providing job opportunities for the so - called “ discouraged workers