way or another. cheaper alternatives are on their way. the new solutions could also result in faster payments. national payment card schemes, such as bankaxept in norway, might provide an alternative to the international card schemes, including access to the new services. new regulations have been introduced to lower the costs related to international cards. a new eu regulation also provides for direct bank - to - bank payments, bypassing the card schemes entirely. technological innovation has given us not only new methods of payment, but also new forms of money – so - called e - money. e - money is electronic money issued by non - bank entities, but in existing currencies. paypal customers can make payments through their paypal account. facebook has recently applied for a europe - wide e - money licence. if large providers offer an attractive, user - friendly solution, this method of payment could become widespread. a key issue related to e - money is the question of consumer trust. e - money is a claim on the issuing company. e - money is not backed by a deposit insurance scheme or any authority. other companies are offering new forms of money – often in the form of a new currency – on closed platforms such as social networks and online games. examples of such platform currencies are amazon coins, the virtual currency used in the online game world of warcraft and chinese q coins. these currencies might seem insignificant, but they have already been used as means of payment outside their own platforms. a number of private digital currencies have also appeared. some have gained ground in terms of turnover and use, while others were introduced for purely fraudulent purposes and have rapidly disappeared. the largest and best - known digital currency is bitcoin, which was launched in 2009. bitcoin has been the subject of widespread debate, but still has only a minor role in the payment system. payment by bitcoin is costly, and the system ’ s capacity is limited. bitcoin prices have been highly volatile. a characteristic of private currencies such as bitcoin is the absence of any central institution backing the currency. but this is also a problem, making it difficult to establish the trust necessary for a widespread adoption of these currencies. cybercrime new technology and new forms of payment are raising fundamental questions related to the security of the payment system. cybercrime is evolving rapidly, with cyberattacks becoming increasingly advanced and well - organised. 5 / 9 bis central

it is still possible to achieve this, but we do need to be prepared for other outcomes as well, including a sharper rise in unemployment. given the world we are living in, there are many sources of uncertainties at present and we could be knocked off that narrow path. recent data as the board navigates this path, it is paying close attention to developments in the global economy, household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. i would like to say a few words about each of these in light of the recent data. first the global economy, which is in a challenging position. the imf is predicting a period of weak growth, especially in advanced economies ( graph 5 ). even so, recent forecast revisions have tended to be to the upside, following stronger news on labour markets and household spending on services in several countries. a change in china ’ s covid policy has also improved the near - term outlook there. graph 5 advanced economy gdp growth * ppp - weighted % imf forecast % - 2 - 2 - 4 - 4 - 6 * - 6 imf estimate for 2022 ; imf forecast for 2023 and 2024. source : ceic data the main global issue though is still inflation. headline inflation has peaked in most economies and is now coming down due to the resolution of supply side problems, softer demand for goods and a decline in some commodity prices ( graph 6 ). even so, there is still uncertainty about how quickly inflation will come back down. in many countries, the prices of services are still increasing quickly and wages growth is above the rate that is consistent with sustainable achievement of inflation targets. reflecting this, in underlying terms, inflation is proving to be uncomfortably persistent. while most central banks are forecasting that inflation will be back to target within two to three years, there is a range of other plausible scenarios where it occurs quicker or slower. graph 6 consumer price inflation year - ended % united states euro area % % - 2 canada united kingdom % - 2 sources : rba ; refinitiv in australia, the monthly cpi indicator for january published last week provided support to the idea that headline inflation has also peaked in australia ( graph 7 ). this monthly indicator is still experimental and can be volatile from month to month, so some caution is required. but the year - ended inflation rate showed a welcome decline from 8. 4 per cent in december to 7. 4 per cent in january. graph 7 monthly cpi indicator headline inflation, year