andrea maechler will discuss interest rate developments in more detail later. after the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate, the swiss franc appreciated significantly in trade - weighted terms. this was partly due to the fact that the euro had reached a low point in early 2015 in the context of the greek crisis. our expansionary monetary policy has since helped to weaken the swiss franc. since january 2015, the franc has offset about half of the effective appreciation. it nevertheless remains significantly overvalued. monetary policy outlook ladies and gentlemen, let me summarise my main points. our monetary policy is based on two key elements – the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. unlike during the period when the minimum exchange rate was in force, we now decide on a case - by - case basis when – and on what scale – we will intervene. our monetary policy aims to have a stabilising effect on the price level and to support the economy. the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene make the swiss franc less attractive and thereby help to achieve these goals. the persistently low interest rate environment presents a challenge for savers and investors. however, it is important to emphasise that negative interest is an absolutely essential instrument at this point in time. in the current climate, higher interest rates in switzerland would cause monetary conditions to deteriorate. if the snb were to aim for higher interest rates, investments in swiss francs would be far more attractive than investments in other currencies. a substantial appreciation of the franc – and its consequent effects on the swiss economy – would be virtually unavoidable in these circumstances. such a scenario would be beneficial neither for savers nor investors. as a small open economy, switzerland is highly exposed to developments abroad. next week ’ s uk referendum on whether to remain in the eu may cause uncertainty and turbulence to increase. we will be monitoring the situation closely and will take measures if required. our national bank i would like to close with a few words about something completely different, a new online information platform for the general public called “ our national bank ”. this has been available for a few days now at our. snb. ch, and provides basic information on the snb and money, price stability, and monetary policy. additional focus topics featured on “ our national bank ” include the minimum exchange rate and the real estate market. the complex subject of monetary policy is explained

of 0. 9 %. the conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three - month libor will remain at – 0. 75 % over the entire forecast horizon. global economic outlook since the assessment of the inflation and economic outlook for switzerland is heavily influenced by economic developments abroad, let me now present our assessment of the global economy. the moderate recovery in the global economy is continuing, supported by ongoing highly expansionary monetary policy worldwide. bis central bankers ’ speeches economic recovery is particularly well advanced in the us where labour market developments in the first few months of the year were generally positive. the us is on the cusp of full employment for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. economic growth in the euro area is gradually becoming more broad - based, and this is increasingly spilling over into the labour market. the unemployment rate has again fallen slightly in recent months. in china, growth remains robust, thanks to various economic policy measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand. overall, international growth is principally being driven by domestic demand and the services sector. by contrast, global manufacturing and trade remain subdued. the international financial markets were dominated by turbulence at the start of the year, however positive economic signals since then have helped to ease the situation. risk premiums and volatility have fallen perceptibly in recent months. at the same time, commodity prices have also recovered from their multi - year lows. we expect the global economic recovery to sustain over the next few quarters. nevertheless, significant risks remain. global growth continues to be fragile due to deeply entrenched structural problems. furthermore, uncertainty emanating from political events could escalate, hampering economic development. the imminent uk referendum on whether to stay in the european union has already caused volatility on the financial markets to rise. swiss economic outlook i shall now turn to the economic outlook for switzerland. after a robust fourth quarter in 2015, the pace of growth slowed in the first quarter of 2016. according to the first official estimate, annualised real gdp increased by 0. 4 % in the first quarter. however, this deceleration is not a sign of a more fundamental slowdown. if we disregard short - term volatility, an upward trend is discernible. available indicators thus point to a continuation of the moderate but steady recovery that has prevailed since the beginning of the year. this would suggest that growth is likely to gather pace in the second quarter. the gradual improvement in