understand recent macroeconomic events better. some of these issues have been of concern for some time, and a few are new. the first issue i wish to raise involves the supply side of the economy and grows out of the recent, unusual conjuncture of rapid growth and high resource utilization with low and stable inflation. what is the proper measurement of resource tightness? the two most prominent measures of resource tightness, capacity utilization in manufacturing and the rate of unemployment, have historically moved fairly closely together over the cycle. however, they have diverged in the past several years, in part as the surge in investment has provided considerable capacity to the manufacturing sector while labor markets have become tighter and tighter. we need a better understanding of the implications of this divergence and, in particular, a clearer sense of which measure, or combination of measures, of resource utilization best foreshadows the emergence of price pressures. a second, and related, issue is whether the nature of “ capacity ” has changed. in the 1940s and 1950s, large - scale units of fixed machinery - such as blast furnaces and assembly lines - more normally characterized manufacturing capacity. many observers have argued that, because this capacity required long lead times to manufacture, test and install, available capacity was easier to measure and slower to change. in such circumstances, high levels of capacity utilization were good predictors of resource tightness, which was likely to translate into pricing pressure. now, we hear, capacity in manufacturing is more technology intensive and can be adjusted more easily to reflect supply and demand conditions. if true, this relatively “ elastic ” supply of manufacturing capacity would imply that capacity utilization may not become “ tight ” by historical standards and our measure of capacity utilization would therefore be a less - certain early warning signal of potential pricing pressure. i have seen no proof of the assertion that the nature of manufacturing capacity has changed, although the experience of the last several years suggests that it has. a third related issue has to do with the average workweek and labor force participation. during this episode of strong growth, the average workweek has not increased significantly. in 1994, the average workweek was about 34½ hours, and today it is about 34½ hours. this steadiness is in part due to mix shifts, as the economy moves away from manufacturing sector jobs, in which the 40 - hour workweek is the norm, to service sector jobs, in which shorter workweeks are more common. moreover, the labor force participation rate

andriy pyshnyy : introductory speech - workshop on monetary policy in emerging markets introductory speech by mr andriy pyshnyy, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at the nbu - eabcn workshop on monetary policy in emerging markets, kyiv, 15 december 2023. * * * dear colleagues, welcome to our traditional workshop on monetary policy in emerging markets. for the third time, we gather to discuss the main challenges for central banks and outline ways to overcome them in emerging markets. first and foremost, i would like to express my gratitude to the euro area business cycle network ( eabcn ) for their support in organizing this event. for the second consecutive year, we are organizing this workshop together, and i sincerely appreciate our productive collaboration. this year, we have placed a special emphasis on understanding the causes and consequences of the new wave of inflation worldwide. the one that shook the world during the post - pandemic recovery and gained particular momentum after the onset of the war in ukraine. almost every country in the world has felt the new wave of inflation, with emerging markets being the most affected. this is confirmed by the economic outlook presented by the imf in october. according to the imf, in 2022, inflation in developed countries averaged 7. 2 %, while in emerging markets, it was 10. 1 %. in some emerging markets, inflation exceeded 20 %. among these countries is ukraine, where we observed a substantial inflationary surge driven by the escalation of the war. the causes of inflationary processes, and even more importantly, the nature of risks for its escalation, can vary significantly across different countries. it seems that inflation has attacked the world from all sides, and in each country, it is targeting the'vulnerable'points in defense : from both demand and supply sides through uncertainty and turbulence in global energy and food markets through structural fragmentation in labor markets and changes in production and supply chains through potential debt crises and financial destabilization ultimately, through the security risks and active military conflicts. 1 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches all of these factors have presented distinctive challenges for central banks, particularly given the constraints of our toolkit. in particular, these challenges stem from structural liquidity surpluses, escalating debt burden, dependence on the policies of developed nations, and the dynamics of international capital markets. economic theory and practical experience have demonstrated successful strategies in addressing inflation. nevertheless, today we