. however, these technologies have truly changed the way businesses operate, and i believe that they will continue to do so in the future. the progress that is occurring today may not seem as revolutionary as it did five or six years ago. nonetheless, the ongoing evolution of these technologies is continuing to generate productivity gains. we all have a natural tendency to look for the next " killer application " that will once again revolutionize the high - tech marketplace. this is the high - tech equivalent of " waiting for godot, " and we should not ignore the many, smaller changes to business practices that are continuing to yield real efficiency gains. when will the high - tech sector recover? i can't give you an exact time or date, but i will assert that its economic prospects still seem positive over the long run. the capital overhang - - especially in the telecommunications industry - - obviously must be eliminated before any meaningful expansion can occur, and some additional consolidation may be necessary if businesses are to be profitable in the long run. but i, like many other observers, think such change is occurring and is likely to bear fruit in the years to come. conclusion to sum up, none of us, obviously, can see the future, and instead we shall have to monitor incoming data closely for evidence of any shifts in recent productivity trends. nonetheless, i remain cautiously optimistic that the u. s. economy can continue to enjoy strong productivity - led growth that will raise living standards in the years to come. i believe this based on analyses at the firm, the industry, and the macroeconomic levels. the unbelievable stories of high - tech revolution were proven to be just that, unbelievable. but the more moderate and credible explanations remain.

computer hardware and software. the other half of the pickup in productivity growth reflected technological innovations in the actual production of computer hardware and semiconductors as well as better management - - perhaps assisted by these high - tech investments - - of the nation's capital and labor. oliner and sichel estimate that, if one consolidates all the influences of high - tech investments, they fully account for the acceleration in productivity over the 1995 - 2001 period. the oliner - sichel estimates are broadly consistent with the results of most other researchers in this field. i should also note that their conclusions have not changed in any fundamental way since they were first published in 2000. i mention this fact to address the concerns of some observers that recent revisions to the national income and product accounts have changed the evidence on post - 1995 productivity growth. the last two annual revisions have indeed lowered output growth, but these adjustments followed several years of upward revisions. to focus on the most recent revisions is natural, but we should not lose sight of the complete record of historical revisions. research by board economists - - karen dynan and doug elmendorf - - clearly shows that we initially overestimate growth during recessions and periods of economic weakness. but we also initially underestimate growth in recovery periods. thus, based on the revisions to growth over the past three years, i do not believe that one should presume that future data revisions will whittle away the post - 1995 acceleration in productivity. microeconomic studies provide corroborating information to the macroeconomic evidence of a post1995 acceleration in productivity growth. industry studies indicate a pattern of greater efficiency gains after 1995, and one clearly gets that impression from talking to business leaders. these executives consistently say that, when they have little leverage to raise their prices, the key to boosting profits is productivity growth. many corporate ceos cite the more efficient use of information technology as one vehicle for cost saving, and i doubt that anyone would question the assertion that all of us are working " smarter and faster " than we were in 1995. researchers can and will debate the exact magnitude of that increment to our efficiency, but it was doubtless a key economic development of the past decade and one that will continue to pay dividends in future years. having said that i think the post - 1995 productivity acceleration was real, let me also assert that we should constantly challenge our assumptions. with the passage of time and the acquisition of more information, we are better