development. • the advanced countries, being relatively free from periodic slumps, were trying to concentrate on raising the long - term rate of growth. • the socialist countries were determined to overtake the richer capitalist countries by fast economic expansion. despite significant development aid and assistance, however, the next and most marked instance of sustained growth occurred in the east asian countries of hong kong, singapore, taiwan and south korea between the early 1960s to the late 1990s when the miracle crashed, so to speak. in the light of these experiences it is possible to sift through the policies and circumstances of the countries cited above, and our own countries in the region to come to certain conclusions. these conclusions, while identifying where we supposedly went wrong, should not preclude us from accepting this and reverting to better policies or actions. certainly, for us at this juncture, it is not about looking backwards to convince ourselves of what we cannot do because we failed to do it before, but to objectively decide what we should do if we are to succeed. there are two issues we must therefore confront if we are to proceed apace namely, globalisation and regionalism. the first growth episode occurred in environments of open trading systems mixed with a consolidation of domestic markets brought about by the formation of larger states from small divided entities. this was the case of the united kingdom, particularly the union of scotland and england. similarly, with germany under bismarck and most notably the united states of america, which was created from thirteen former colonies. such was the case of italy under garibaldi. customs unions were formed by the new states to protect their embryonic manufacturing sectors while actively trying to compete in export markets. in the case of the east asian nics, they followed the japanese model, the so called flying geese and picked up industries which had become uncompetitive in japan. pre world war i was a significant period of globalisation with the free flow of commodities, capital and labour which facilitated development in the developed countries. the 1950s, 60s and 70s were periods of global growth which facilitated the east asia nics. where does the caribbean stand in all of this? certainly our economies, based on a plantation system of exploitation, was disfigured, but certainly in the early 1960s, when independence came to the region, the larger countries, jamaica, and trinidad and tobago were ahead of the east asian nics, and were in close proximity to the nics ’ largest market, the united states.

cent. there has, however, been a very focused approach to reconstruction, with the assistance of both the regional and international communities. this should bear fruit in the coming years. all in all, 2004 can be described as a year of moderate growth, despite the major set back in grenada. prospects for 2005 and beyond looking to 2005 and beyond, one has to make certain assumptions about the prospects and possibilities, given two alternative scenarios. in the first scenario, we can continue on our present path with the same policies and hope, that as in 2004, we will have favourable outcomes. the alternative scenario would be to pursue more active policies to lock in the gains from 2004, and to build on these to achieve some critical development objectives. using the first scenario, the prospects are that growth will continue to be positive, based on a favourable international economic environment, and continued growth in tourism and construction activity. the prospects for the tourism industry look very promising, with increased activity in both the stay - over and cruise sectors. there are also a number of projects in both the public and private sectors that are linked to the tourism sector directly, or are derived secondarily from activities in this industry. there is, however, an urgent need for the alternative scenario to be seriously considered, as the currency union is faced with major challenges from both external and domestic factors, which could threaten the continuation of growth. the external factors which could affect us would include : high oil prices, an increase in international interest rates, the impact of changes in trade regimes such as those connected with the wto, the ftaa, the european union, and the csme, and the performance of the us dollar against other international currencies. the domestic factors would be the fiscal and debt issues, and the need for increased productivity and competitiveness. the countries of the eccu need to revisit the five objectives set by the oecs authority in november 2002. these are • a growth rate of six per cent ; • a reduction in unemployment levels to at least six per cent ; • a reduction in poverty levels to at least six per cent ; • the maintenance and improvement of their human development indices ; and • the transformation of the economies into highly productive, adaptable and competitive entities. the authority identified a number of policy instruments which were available to facilitate the achievement of these objectives. they included – • monetary and fiscal policies ; • incomes and structural policies ; and • trade and international economic relations policies. the oecs