##0. 04 −0. 05 note : labor force participation rate of workers aged 25 to 54, indexed by the difference from the february 2020 value. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the shaded recession period extends from february 2020 through april 2020. source : bureau of labor statistics employment situation report, current population survey. figure 2 : job opening counts index weekly 2019 = 100 mar. 30 note : jolts job opening counts at the end of each week divided by the average job opening counts in the year 2019. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the shaded recession period extends from february 2020 through april 2020. source : bureau of labor statistics, job openings and labor turnover survey ( jolts ). figure 3 : pce and core pce inflation monthly percent pce core pce apr. note : percent change in the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index from 12 months ago. core refers to the price index excluding food and energy. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the shaded recession period extends from february 2020 through april 2020. the data for the most recent month ( april ) are a staff projection. source : bureau of economic analysis, personal consumption expenditures price index. figure 4 : measures of household borrowing rates percent effective federal funds rate 30−year fixed−rate mortgage average in the u. s. may 9 may 13 note : the effective federal funds rate frequency is daily, and the 30−year fixed−rate mortgage average in the u. s. is weekly. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the shaded recession period extends from february 2020 through april 2020. source : federal reserve board ; freddie mac. figure 5 : market rents and housing services inflation monthly percent pce housing services corelogic market rents zillow market rents february 2024 −5 note : personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) housing services inflation shows the end−of−the−quarter 12−month change in the pce housing services price index. corelogic and zillow market−rate rents are single−family rents for a new lease by a new tenant at the end of the month. the gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the national bureau of economic research. the gray shaded recession period extends

that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those on fixed incomes and those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials, including housing, transportation, and food. that is why my colleagues at the fed and i are so committed to returning inflation to our target. monetary policy so, what does the current state of the economy mean for the policy rate we set at the fed? at the most recent meeting, three weeks ago, my colleagues and i on the fomc decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 - 1 / 4 to 5 - 1 / 2 - 4percent. i believe that our policy rate is in restrictive territory as we continue to see the labor market come into better balance, and inflation decline although nowhere near as quickly as i would have liked. the fomc noted that it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. in making judgements about the appropriate stance of policy rate over time, i will be carefully assessing the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. at its last meeting, the fomc also decided to continue the process of reducing our balance sheet, but at a slower pace. the cap on treasury redemptions will be lowered from the current $ 60 billion per month to $ 25 billion per month as of june 1. consistent with the committee ’ s intention to hold primarily treasury securities in the longer run, we ’ re leaving the cap on agency securities redemptions unchanged at $ 35 billion per month. we will reinvest any proceeds in excess of this cap in treasury securities, as detailed in the may 1, 2024 operating policy statement published by the federal reserve bank of new york. 2 the housing market the fed sets policy to promote its dual - mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability, and employment and inflation depend on conditions in the entire economy. still, given our gathering today, i thought it would be appropriate to dive a bit deeper into the housing and home finance markets. see federal reserve bank of new york ( 2024 ), statement regarding reinvestment of principal payments from treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage - backed securities, may 1, https : / / www. newyorkfed. org / markets / opolicy / operating _ policy _ 240501. - 5as i said earlier, the housing sector is