housing financing conditions have been difficult in some markets. we ’ re seeing signs that the housing market is improving in the greater toronto area, while prices and activity are still adjusting to more sustainable levels in the greater vancouver area, and alberta ’ s market continues to adjust to lower oil prices. at the same time, interest rates on five - year fixed - rate mortgages have fallen recently to around where they were five years ago, which is relevant for people buying a new house or renewing their mortgage. it also reinforces our view that residential investment is once again contributing to growth. in the oil and gas sector, we expect that transportation constraints for crude oil will ease gradually. the trans mountain pipeline expansion will provide a welcome boost to capacity, although the pipeline will come online beyond our projection horizon. there are also some positive developments in offshore oil in newfoundland and labrador. despite this, we expect overall investment in this sector to contract further in 2019 before stabilizing over the next two years. all told, this would bring oil and gas investment down by 20 percent since 2017, on top of the 50 percent drop seen following the 2014 oil price shock. it ’ s worth reminding ourselves that oil and gas production is still contributing some $ 65 billion annually to the canadian economy. in addition, construction related to trans mountain and to the liquefied natural gas terminal in british 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches columbia will add to business investment. while recent export data for canada have been encouraging, the trade environment continues to be the biggest wild card in our outlook. governing council spent considerable time discussing developments on this front. since our april mpr, the tariffs that the united states had imposed on aluminum and steel, as well as canada ’ s countermeasures, have been removed. and, there has been some progress toward ratification of the canada - united states - mexico agreement. this is welcome news. on the other side of the ledger, the actions that china has taken against some canadian agricultural products and the fact that the us – china trade war is still ongoing are clear negatives. we have increased our estimate of the impact that trade actions and related uncertainty are having on the economy, both globally and within our borders. for canada, while exports are still expected to grow over the next couple of years, we forecast them to be around 1½ percent lower than they would have been without the trade uncertainty. we have also marked down the level of investment by 3 percent in 2021 for the same reason

cultivated crops in canada. this image reminds canadians of the importance of the role family farms played in the expansion of our country and of the prairies as the breadbasket of our nation. then the note takes us to the canadian shield, that ancient mass of rock that covers roughly half of the total land area of canada. this is a view that many ottawans may find familiar : forest, rock and water, minus the blackflies. the image used on this bank note is inspired by a photograph taken at the soon - to - be - created parc national d ’ opemican in the abitibi - temiscamingue region of quebec. the kipawa river pictured here flows out of the park and into the ottawa river. those waters eventually run past our doorsteps here and down to montreal, where they merge with the st. lawrence. moving right, we go to the east coast of canada and an image of cape bonavista in newfoundland and labrador. this may very well have been the view that john cabot saw when 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches he landed in 1497. above these images of canada, we see the northern lights as they would appear if we were in wood buffalo national park, home to the world ’ s largest dark - sky preserve. now some of you may be old enough to remember the centennial bank note produced by the bank of canada in 1967. many people still have some of them tucked away. i know i will be keeping one of these new notes. we have produced 40 million of them, just more than enough for every canadian. they will be available as of june 1st. as all of you celebrate canada ’ s big birthday this year, i encourage you to take a close look at this special note. it will be a little piece of history. i hope this bank note captivates your imagination and instills pride in who we are and how far we have come as a nation. it celebrates our land, our history and our culture. it ’ s a bank note that reminds us of how much we have to celebrate as canadians. thank you. merci beaucoup. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches