the assumption that government expenditure targets will be met in 2008. moreover, we assume that any extra need to readjust the primary budget balance will be implemented primarily through expenditure cuts rather than hikes in indirect taxes. therefore the medium - term outlook that i mentioned above does not envisage major shocks arising from administered price adjustments, except the hikes in electricity and natural gas in january 2008. it should be kept in mind that any deviation from this assumption may alter the inflation and monetary outlook. the recent increase in end - user energy prices may continue to exert some temporary upward pressure on headline inflation in the coming months. however, these adjustments will also support lower inflation in the medium term as they contribute to a prudent fiscal stance and facilitate an expansion of the domestic energy production. hence the central bank ’ s policy will not to react to these price adjustments, except to contain second - round effects. developments in food prices are still considered as an important risk to the short - term inflation outlook, as food items constitute more than one fourth of the cpi basket. the course of food inflation is highly dependent on domestic weather conditions as well as global developments. in the medium term, there is a significant chance of a downward correction in unprocessed food inflation, especially given the base effect created by the last two years ’ elevated food prices. on the other hand, it is also possible that global developments and increasing demand for certain food items may continue to push up the food prices. therefore, food prices continue to pose risks to the inflation outlook on both sides. so far, turkish economy has been resilient to reappraisal of risks in global financial markets. the support of fiscal policy and structural reforms are critical in shielding the economy against possible further deterioration in global sentiment. in this respect, the european union accession process and the implementation of structural reforms envisaged in the economic program remain crucial. finally, i would like to conclude my speech by mentioning that advances in structural reforms enhancing the quality of fiscal discipline and raising productivity are monitored closely with regard to their implications on macroeconomic and price stability. thank you.

by 12 - month options decreased below 30 points on 25 july from 47 points in may. we are seeing the positive effects of our monetary policy strategy on the markets. our reserves are strengthening, financing conditions are improving, and implied exchange rate volatility is decreasing. medium - term projections 8 / 11 bis - central bankers'speeches esteemed guests, after summarizing the economic outlook, the starting point for our forecasts, let me now share with you our medium - term projections. we have revised our assumptions for the global growth index, which offers a brief account of external demand, slightly upwards for 2023 and downwards for 2024. since the previous reporting period, crude oil prices in spot and futures markets have been in line with our projections. our oil price assumptions have remained flat. we have revised our assumptions for import prices for 2024 upwards due to geopolitical and supply - side effects reflected in futures markets in commodity and energy. the upward course in domestic food prices continues due to supply - side problems and shortcomings in the market structure. recently, prices of red meat and red meat - related processed food products have increased significantly. in addition to red meat prices, we have also witnessed high rates of increases in vegetable prices, which were affected by supply conditions. our forecasts reflect our assumption that food inflation will be 61. 5 % at end - 2023 and 35. 0 % at end - 2024. esteemed guests, accordingly, we have significantly revised our inflation path. we have raised the end - 2023 inflation forecast to 58 %. we have revised the end - 2024 forecast as 33 %. at the end of 2025, we project that inflation will decline to 15 %. the revision in our forecast path became 35. 7 points for end - 2023 and 24. 2 points for end - 2024. i would like to share with you the reasons for this notable change in our forecasts. compared to the previous reporting period, developments in tl - denominated import prices pushed our year - end inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024 up by 7. 5 and 8. 3 points, respectively. this was mainly driven by exchange rate developments. amid the realizations and raised assumptions, food prices added 8. 5 percentage points for 2023, and 6. 0 percentage points for 2024 to our forecasts. 9 / 11 bis - central bankers'speeches moreover, changes made to other economic policies, such as transfers to