2022, and the euro area figure is for november. situation in ukraine. there is concern that, if the price of commodities, including grain, rises or remains high for a prolonged period, this could put further downward pressure on domestic and overseas economies. given that japan is a commodity importer, and its energy selfsufficiency rate is the second lowest among 36 oecd countries, 2 the increased trade losses due to higher commodity prices have put significant downward pressure on the economy ( chart 4 ). it takes some time for the impact of losses from trade to materialize as a decline in demand. thus, depending on developments in the price of grain and other commodities, there is a risk that private consumption and business fixed investment may become lower than expected. some point out that, in addition to widespread price rises in october 2022 caused mainly by higher prices for imports such as grain and other commodities, a spate of price rises is projected for february and march 2023. higher inflation will put downward pressure on households'real income, but how much it declines depends on the growth rate of nominal wages. in this sense, as i will elaborate later, the crucial factors are how energy selfsufficiency is increased and to what degree firms raise wages ; i am thus closely monitoring the future course of energy policy and wage revisions for spring 2023. ii. conduct of monetary policy let me now turn to my basic view on the conduct of monetary policy for the immediate future, based on the economic and price developments i have just described. in view of japan's present economic conditions, i consider it necessary for the bank of japan to persistently continue with monetary easing, primarily for two reasons. the first reason is that japan's economy is still on its way to recovery from the downturn brought about by the pandemic. japan's real gdp was positive for three quarters in a row from the october - december quarter of 2021, but it turned negative in the july - september quarter of 2022, remaining below the 2019 average level ( chart 5 ). having experienced deflation over roughly a decade and a half, japan's economy suffered from the " three excesses " in employment, production capacity, and debt. this engendered a strong " defensive mindset " and led to an economy characterized by low growth, low inflation, and low wage growth. due to this defensive mindset, japan was slow to respond to changes in the economic data are for 2019,

ravi menon : introducing yi gang opening remarks by mr ravi menon, managing director of the monetary authority of singapore, at the mas lecture 2023 by dr yi gang, singapore, 19 july 2023. * * * dr yi gang, president, china society for finance and banking, distinguished guests, friends and colleagues, good afternoon. welcome to the 11th mas lecture. since its launch in 2000, the mas lecture has featured distinguished members of the international financial community. today, we are honoured to have with us, dr yi gang. yi gang needs little introduction, and i can scarcely do justice in five minutes to his many achievements over a distinguished career spanning more than 30 years. one perhaps less well - known of yi gang's accomplishments is that he co - founded the china centre for economic research at peking university nearly 30 years ago, in 1994. this has since been transformed into the national school of development which is now a key platform for academic exchanges between chinese and overseas scholars. the value of such exchanges cannot be over - emphasised in today's world. it is vital that the rest of the world gets to better understand china, and china in turn better understands the world outside its borders. in a small way, we hope, having yi gang deliver today's mas lecture will help to advance this understanding. of course, we are most familiar with yi gang's role in china's monetary and financial policies. he has served as director - general of its monetary policy department and administrator of the state administration of foreign exchange. since becoming pboc governor in march 2018, yi gang has steered china's monetary policy and macroprudential supervision through the covid - 19 pandemic, not to mention structural trends such as the rapid digitalisation of finance and the transition to a greener economy. yi gang is among the most familiar of china's senior officials internationally. i have seen first - hand, at meetings of central bank governors – be it in washington dc or basel or here in asia – the key role that yi gang has played in communicating the challenges and peculiarities of the chinese economy and the rationale behind china's economic and financial policies. yi gang does with a style that is clear, candid, and cogent, projecting a voice of reason and balance. he takes to difficult questions in a kindly and patient manner. so, this is an encouragement for those who want to ask questions later! 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches yi