meanwhile the growth outlook has weakened. this has prompted us at the ecb's governing council to cut interest rates four times in the last six months. going forward, the direction of our monetary policy is clear. the scope and speed of rate cuts will depend on incoming data regarding three factors, in particular : the inflation outlook, the underlying inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission. the governing council will decide on interest rates in each of its monetary policy meetings, taking into account all the new information and analysis that has accrued since the previous meeting. in the forthcoming meetings we should also have more information on the policies of the incoming us administration and on the european response to those policies. in light of the current economic outlook and our reaction functions, i would assume that our monetary policy will leave restrictive territory in the coming months, at the latest by midsummer. slide 10. concluding remarks so, is the glass of global trade half empty or half full? total trade has held up so far, perhaps surprisingly well. services have become more and more important in global trade, and this trend will continue. but we must not be complacent. geopolitical shocks, like russia's invasion of ukraine or higher barriers to trade, can have negative effects on our economies. tariffs between any two countries, like the us and china, may often be circumvented one way or another. companies are nimble in moving production to avoid tariffs. this kind of adaptation makes economies more resilient, but at the same time it does add to the costs of doing business. if considerably higher tariffs or other trade restrictions were introduced, these costs of doing business would increase more significantly – for all of us. furthermore, such a trade war could have a negative impact in other areas as well. fraying and frozen international relations would, in turn, make ending a trade war more difficult. there are no winners in a trade war. this is the reason why we in finland and europe continue to defend the rules - based international order in security and trade and the legal rights of independent nations – in europe, in the global south and across the world. in my view, this is crucial for global peace and development of the humankind. thank you for your attention! 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

, bilateral trade between the us and china has stalled, and some supply chains have been relocated from china to southeast asia, mexico and emerging economies in europe. these shifts aim to mitigate supply chain disruption risks and avoid import tariffs or export restrictions. secondly, russia's war in ukraine has effectively isolated russia from the european union, the g7 countries and their allies. this has resulted in a dramatic reduction in trade between the eu and russia since february 2022. the goal of the sanctions is clear : to cause damage to the russian war machine and its imperialistic invasion. slide 6. domestic value - added has decreased in the eu in this complex environment, it is useful to examine whether production is being reshored transferred back home at significant levels. in other words, is globalisation truly reversing? our staff analysis of the origins of value - added in manufacturing indicates that in the united states, the share of domestically produced value - added increased between 2018 and 2023. conversely, in the eu, there was a small decrease in domestic valueadded. this suggests some reshoring dynamics in the us and the opposite in europe. slide 7. chinese value - added has increased in the eu and remains unchanged in the us our findings also highlight the challenges of decoupling or de - risking from china, due to the deeply integrated nature of global production networks. even though direct trade between china and the united states shows signs of a modest decline, the share of chinese value - added in us manufacturing imports remained stable during the period examined. it appears that value chains are simply being re - routed through connector countries like mexico and vietnam. in the european union, chinese value - added in manufacturing has in fact increased since 2018. this illustrates the challenges related to even moderate decoupling, which in europe is seen as necessary de - risking in today's geopolitical context. in this challenging global context, the european central bank's monetary policy aims at ensuring price stability, which also supports the eu's general economic policies. slide 8. eu free trade agreements in 2024 : status report in this challenging global context, the european central bank's monetary policy aims at ensuring price stability, which also supports the eu's general economic policies. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches slide 9. euro area inflation is stabilising at the 2 % target in the euro area, disinflation is well on track. wage pressures have also somewhat receded.