swiss goods in the euro area, which in turn impacts domestic inflation via production and employment effects. consequently, the monetary policy of the european central bank ( ecb ) is particularly relevant for switzerland. this has become clear again in recent years. on the one hand, the ecb ’ s expansionary monetary policy has encouraged the economic recovery and helped to promote cohesion in the euro area – which in turn has bolstered demand for swiss products. on the other, the weakening of the euro has put swiss producers in a bind versus their european competitors and presented problems for switzerland ’ s monetary policymakers. stability and instability in relation to european currencies over the course of several decades, the swiss franc has appreciated against all european currencies. this applies not just to the nominal, but also to the real exchange rate ( i. e. the exchange rate adjusted for the inflation differential between the swiss franc and the relevant foreign currency ), which is an important determinant of switzerland ’ s international competitiveness. so, while the appreciation we have witnessed in recent years is certainly very pronounced, it is not entirely new. bis central bankers ’ speeches our currency has frequently experienced upward surges – often in conjunction with shortterm increases in exchange rate volatility. in the 1970s and 1980s, for instance, the swiss franc appreciated substantially against all european currencies amid major fluctuations. the exchange rate to the german mark – which remained relatively stable – was an exception. this was due to structural similarities between the two countries ’ economies and to the fact that both the german bundesbank and the snb operated according to comparable monetary policy principles at the time. both institutions were focused on money supply targets and pursued a policy geared towards maintaining price stability. in the 1990s, monetary policy in most of the eu countries was dominated by preparations for the launch of the european single currency. as a result of the maastricht convergence criteria, the central banks of these countries were increasingly aligning themselves with the bundesbank. exchange rates between the affected currencies, as well as exchange rates to the swiss franc, consequently stabilised. this phase of low exchange rate volatility continued in the years immediately following the launch of the euro. the most recent period of exchange rate volatility against the euro has its roots in the international financial and debt crisis, which rapidly evolved into a euro crisis. doubts about the viability of some euro area member states ’ sovereign debts

use in previous years, which is a key factor in the smaller current - account deficit. private savings already showed a recovery in the first quarter of the year. going forward, its level will be above those of the past few years. public savings will remain around 2 % of gdp over the projection horizon, in line with compliance with the structural balance target. it is estimated that the current - account deficit will close this year at 3. 7 % of gdp, to stand at around 4 % in 2024 and 2025. in the central scenario, gross fixed capital formation will maintain a low profile. this projection continues to incorporate a complex external scenario, with high uncertainty and still restrictive financial conditions. survey information also shows low levels of investment for the coming quarters, and entrepreneurial expectations continue to be pessimistic, mostly so in the construction sector ( table 1 ). the external impulse relevant to chile will remain moderate. although first - quarter figures exceeded expectations in some economies, such as china, several factors suggest that this will be transitory. in fact, bank credit to companies has tightened in the u. s. and the eurozone, pointing to a weak performance of activity and investment ahead. in latin america, the outlook remains unfavorable, as it combines deteriorating financial conditions with stress factors in several economies. in this context, fiscal spending is not expected to be a major source of external momentum, given the fiscal consolidation process and the weak global scenario. thus, and heavily influenced by china's improved performance earlier in the year, our trading partners'projected growth for 2023 rises to 3 %, up from the 2. 4 % estimated in march. for 2024 and 2025, there is no change, with projected increases of 2. 3 % and 3. 0 %, respectively ( figure 18 ). the terms of trade will be somewhat lower than expected in march. this is explained by the weak global growth outlook, in a context where commodity prices have already declined since the beginning of the year. in the case of copper prices, averages of us $ 3. 85, us $ 3. 65 and us $ 3. 5 per pound are forecast for 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively. for oil, the projection points to average brent - wti prices of us $ 76 in 2023, gradually declining to us $ 68 in 2025. food prices have behaved in line with expectations, and a downward trajectory similar to the march report is maintained