per cent of the 1. 3 per cent inflation in april. the moderation in inflation over the quarter was influenced by lower imported commodity prices, the appreciation in the exchange rate and weak consumer demand. in particular, the price of crude oil fell by 7. 4 per cent during the quarter, influenced by growing concerns about the impact of a sovereign debt crisis in europe on prices. concurrently, the prices of soybean, corn and wheat fell in the context of high inventories and increased production. real sector while there are signs of recovery, economic activity remained weak during the june quarter. real gdp is estimated to have declined in the range of 0. 0 per cent to 1. 0 per cent ; a marginally slower pace of contraction than the reduction of 1. 0 per cent recorded in the march 2010 quarter. both tradable and nontradable industries were estimated to have recorded slower rates of contraction. the resumption of growth in mining & quarrying and transport, storage & communication were the major influences on this improvement. however, domestic demand remained weak as a result of increased unemployment and lower real income and continued to restrain growth. outlook although the outlook for growth in the global economy remains positive, there are concerns about the pace of recovery. these concerns are related largely to the sustainability of the pace of recovery in the united states as well as the health of the european economy, particularly in light of the fiscal austerity measures implemented by greece, portugal and spain. against this background, the bank estimates that there will be weak growth in the domestic economy in the range of 0. 0 per cent to 1. 0 per cent for fiscal year 2010 / 11. this growth is expected in the latter part of the fiscal year with the first expansion since the september 2007 quarter projected to occur in the september 2010 quarter. already, there has been resumption of production in the alumina industry which will contribute to growth in the mining sector. this will be complemented by growth in agriculture, forestry & fishing, transport, storage & communication and electricity & water supply. however, weak demand will continue to have a moderating impact on domestic economic conditions. for the september 2010 quarter, the bank is forecasting further deceleration in headline inflation relative to the march and june 2010 quarters, to a range of 1. 5 per cent to 2. 5 per cent. the inflation forecast for the september quarter is also lower than the average rate of 3. 8 per cent for the previous

brian wynter : economic issues and short - term trends for jamaica speech by mr brian wynter, governor of the bank of jamaica, at the quarterly press briefing, kingston, 12 august 2010. * * * good morning, ladies and gentlemen : welcome to the bank of jamaica. today we are releasing the quarterly monetary policy report for the june 2010 quarter. the report covers the economic issues that occupied our attention in the review quarter as well as the bank ’ s perspective on the short - term trends and economic outlook for jamaica. two special features are also included. box 1 looks at the recent movement in the domestic exchange rate in the context of jamaica ’ s external competitiveness. box 2 examines the adequacy of gross international reserves. when we last met, i indicated that jamaica had embarked on a comprehensive programme of policy reforms. these reforms aim at transforming the economy from the vicious cycle of high interest rates, excessive debt, recurrent instability and low growth to a benign cycle of lower financing costs for the public and private sectors, more stable financial markets, less volatility in domestic prices and sustained growth. during the june 2010 quarter, we continued to see signs of that transformation. in particular, the perception of a positive outlook for the jamaican economy has been strengthening. this is manifested in the continued appreciation of the exchange rate, lower market - determined interest rates, a decline in inflation expectations and strong net international reserves. it is against this background that i will now speak to the issues outlined in the report. i will also share some thoughts with you on bank of jamaica losses, an issue that has recently sparked some interest. monetary policy the bank continued to ease monetary policy in the context of the positive economic developments in the review quarter. the bank ’ s actions were also supported by the strengthening of investor confidence, which was boosted by the announcement that jamaica had successfully met the first set of targets under the stand - by arrangement with the international monetary fund. these circumstances allowed bank of jamaica to reduce the interest rate on its 30 - day open market securities by 100 basis points to 9. 00 per cent during the quarter. in the context of buoyant jamaica dollar liquidity, the bank continued sales of government of jamaica securities from its portfolio on the secondary market during the review period. all sales were above par, that is, the bank received a premium on each sale, and absorbed $ 14. 8 billion. this absorption completed the permanent sterilisation of the funds advanced to the government