is made in overcoming the pandemic. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches factoring in losses to the economy caused by the tightening of quarantine restrictions, the nbu downgraded its gdp growth forecast for 2021 to 3. 8 %, down from 4. 2 %. the ukrainian economy will grow at a pace of around 4 % in 2022 – 2023. the current account is expected to return to a slight deficit in 2021, propelled by higher domestic demand and the gradual revival of international tourism. the current account deficit will widen noticeably in 2022 – 2023, propelled mainly by : less favorable terms of trade for exporters of agricultural and metallurgical products the expected drop in earnings from gas transit and continued growth in consumer and investment imports, fueled by the complete recovery of the global and ukrainian economies from the coronavirus crisis. under what conditions would this forecast be realized? the primary assumption of the nbu board is that ukraine will continue to cooperate with the imf. the nbu expects that ukraine will make further progress in its talks with the imf. cooperation with the imf and other international partners will enhance the government ’ s ability to support the economy during the crisis, while also helping ukraine pass through the period of debt repayments that will peak in the coming autumn. this cooperation will help maintain ukraine ’ s international reserves at a reasonably high level of usd 29 to 30 billion in 2021 – 2023. the key risk to the macroeconomic forecast is the imposition of stricter quarantine measures in ukraine and globally, and the slow pace of the vaccination campaign domestically. new waves of the pandemic forced countries to once again tighten quarantine restrictions in q1 2021. despite the partial adaptation of businesses to the new conditions, this is slowing the recovery of business activity. the slow pace of the vaccination campaign in ukraine, coupled with higher inflationary pressures arising from the rebounding global economy, poses an additional risk of future economic losses. there are other significant risks. they include : an escalation of the military conflict in eastern ukraine or on the country ’ s borders volatile global capital markets and a dramatic deterioration in the terms of trade. taking into account all of the above, the nbu board decided to raise the key policy rate to 7. 5 %. how does the nbu intend to change the key policy rate in future? the nbu ’ s forecast envisages that the key policy rate will

david dodge : economic and financial trends in canada opening statement by mr david dodge, governor of the bank of canada, to the house of commons finance committee, ottawa, 26 october 2004. * * * good afternoon, mr. chairman and members of the committee. we appreciate the opportunity to meet with this committee twice a year, following the release of our monetary policy reports. these meetings help us keep members of parliament and, through you, all canadians informed about the bank ’ s views on the economy, and about the objective of monetary policy and the actions we take to achieve it. since we last met, we are pleased to have issued canada ’ s new $ 20 bank note with enhanced security features. the new note began circulating on 29 september. last thursday, we released our october monetary policy report, which reviews economic and financial trends in the context of canada ’ s inflation - control strategy. when paul and i appeared before this committee last april, we told you that the economy was judged to be operating significantly below its potential. that is no longer the case, because the canadian economy has grown faster than was projected in last april ’ s monetary policy report and the july update. this stronger growth was largely due to a surge in exports. the economy is now operating near its production capacity and continues to adjust to global economic developments. the bank ’ s base - case projection for the period to the end of 2006 calls for aggregate demand for canadian goods and services to expand, on average, at about the same rate as potential output. given the effects of higher oil prices and the past appreciation of the canadian dollar, the bank projects economic growth to be slightly less than 3 per cent in 2005, and slightly more than 3 per cent in 2006. with the economy expected to remain near its production capacity throughout this period, core inflation is projected to move back up to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2005. that is the same projection that we made last april. however, given the path suggested by futures prices for crude oil, the bank expects total cpi inflation will rise to the top of the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the first half of 2005, before falling slightly below core inflation in early 2006. against this background, the bank raised its target for the overnight rate to 2. 5 per cent on 19 october. the base - case projection assumes further reduction of monetary stimulus over time, to keep the economy near its production potential and to achieve the inflation target. i want to emphasize that the