##isation in the twenty first century of the total projected increment to world urban population between 2000 and 2030 of about 2. 1 billion people about 1. 3 billion or about 60 per cent, will be in asia ( table 1 ). in the second half of the twentieth century the total accretion to urban population in the world was similar in magnitude ( about 2. 1 billion ), but the asian share was somewhat lower at about 53 per cent. as i have repeatedly emphasized, it is this expected magnitude of urbanisation expected in asia that is unprecedented and hence the management of it is the key challenge facing us in all its multifaceted aspects. i have attempted to speculate about the possible changes in urbanisation patterns and requirements that may emerge in the future. just as the structure of american cities is different from that of european cities depending on their vintage, we can expect the 21st century asian city to also exhibit different characteristics. the older european or asian city is typically more densely populated and less spread out than the american cities, reflecting in particular the different degrees of motorization that existed at their inception. american cities are much more dependent on privately owned motorized transportation than cities in the older continents. even as early as the early 1970s, nearly 80 per cent of us urban commuters traveled by car, as compared with only 15 per cent in japan. in fact, 65 - 70 per cent of tokyo commuters and 60 per cent of those in seoul traveled by public transit in the early 1970s ( mills and ohta, 1976 ; mills and song, 1979 ). with increasing incomes and aspirations the pace of growth in auto ownership in asian cities is awesome as is the growth in traffic congestion. the current increase in oil prices is sharpening the kind of tensions that are typical in debates related to urban transportation. with the emergence of increased private motorized transportation there has been a noticeable intensification of investment in intra - urban expressways in many asian cities. this typically leads to accelerated urban sprawl, a still faster increase in auto ownership and consequent demand for oil, and higher pollution. over time, road traffic congestion inevitably catches up leading to further demand for road investment or for mass transportation that is then expected to reduce road traffic congestion and pollution. the current trends suggest that the result is high investment in both modes of transportation. given the higher levels of income that already exist, and expected rapid increase in income growth, the emergence of these patterns is perhaps inevitable. the demand for

, a result of consistent economic reforms since the early 1990s, the importance of urban infrastructure investment has finally begun to occupy the minds of key policy markers and a new " national urban renewal mission " has been launched. however, the biases against labour using manufacturing remain in overall economic policy making, in the industrial regulatory regime, labour regulations and in urban land policy. thus employment growth in manufacturing remains low. as i have argued elsewhere, these polices could have contributed significantly to the slow down observed in indian urbanisation over the last quarter century ( mohan and dasgupta, 2004 ). industrial competitiveness in india has now recovered after the shock of competition having been absorbed through significant financial and business process restructuring in indian firms. the export orientation of indian industry at large has also increased significantly in recent years. on average ( since 2000 - 01 ), about 14 per cent of sales of indian firms is now exported and this proportion continues to grow, as compared with 7 per cent in 1991 - 92. consequently, the continued high growth of the indian economy would get strengthened if the efficiency of indian cities improves. it is noteworthy that those cities that have shown great economic vigor over the last decade in india, such as delhi, bangalore, hyderabad, pune and chandigarh exhibit certain common characteristics. they have an unusually large endowment of educational institutions at all levels, and research institutions. as it happens, a good number of relatively high technology public sector industries were also located in most of these cities. with the availability of such an educational and technical ethos, these cities have a knowledge base that is significantly superior to that of other cities. consequently, they have been able to lead the indian information technology revolution and to benefit from all the high economic growth that has followed. the lack of appropriate physical infrastructure and transport linkage inland or with rest of the world has not come in the way since the information technology exports are not dependent on these elements of infrastructure. all they needed was appropriate communication infrastructure, which has indeed been provided progressively. however, the prosperity brought by the success of the it industry in these cities has itself resulted in greater pressures being placed on the existing infrastructure. traffic congestion has arisen due to much elevated levels of auto ownership ; housing demand has escalated in both quantity and quality leading to rapid increases in land and housing prices ; and much increased power demand is putting great stress on existing power supply systems. businesses are therefore beginning to look for other locations. the competitiveness of these cities will therefore depend on acceleration