of forward guidance – at least in an extreme form of a commitment to an unconditional interest path – would not be consistent with our mandate. this was recently also emphasised by benoit cœure. 6 because our forward guidance conveys expectations about the future course of monetary policy, it depends, of course, on the economic outlook. if the outlook changes, this will eventually have to be reflected in our forward guidance. 4. 1 economic outlook as a matter of fact, the economic outlook for the euro area has improved over the past 12 months. real gdp growth accelerated in 2016, from + 0. 2 % in the second quarter to + 0. 5 % in the final quarter. and the euro - area economy maintained this momentum at the beginning of this year. at the same time, the cyclical recovery is firming. growth is broad - based and is widening to increasingly more countries. the ecb currently predicts the economy in the euro area to grow by 1. 8 % this year and 1. 7 % next year. 4 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches and with the robust economic recovery, the ecb also forecasts an ongoing decline in unemployment and a rise in wage growth. hence, domestic price pressure in the euro area is expected to rise gradually. the improving economic outlook moves one particular element of our forward guidance more into the focus of public attention : the officially stated precondition for ending the net asset purchases. many people are asking : “ what exactly does a ‘ sustained adjustment ’ in the rate of inflation mean? " there is a temptation to answer : “ you ’ ll know it when you see it. ” but monetary policy isn ’ t that easy. it requires greater precision - in particular since central bank communication has taken on a more prominent role. in fact, we have established four criteria to assess whether there is a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with our definition of price stability. first, headline inflation has to converge to levels below, but close to 2 % over a mediumterm horizon. second, the return of inflation into that range has to be durable, that is not only transitional. third, and this is rather self - evident, this development must hold for the euro - area average and not just for individual countries. fourth and finally, the convergence of inflation has to be self - sustained in the sense that inflation will return to the area consistent with our definition of price stability and will remain there even when the current level of

carl - ludwig thiele : citius, altius, fortius – challenges for payments and settlement systems and their analysis speech by mr carl - ludwig thiele, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the conference " economics of payments viii " 2016, eltville am rhein, 9 november 2016. * * * dear participants of the economics of payments conference, dear president weidmann, thank you for your welcoming introduction to this conference. on behalf of the executive board of the bundesbank and of the directorate general payments and settlement systems i too would like to extend a warm welcome to everybody attending this event at our training and conference centre in eltville. the latin phrase “ citius, altius, fortius ", which translates as “ faster, higher, stronger ", has been the motto of the olympic games since 1949. the french dominican preacher henri didon originally coined the term back in 1891 for a youth sports competition, the aim being to motivate his students to give their level best and survive the stress of competing. this rallying call strikes me as equally prescient today with regard to payments. market participants ’ expectations of the availability, speed and security of payment systems are growing at an ever increasing rate. users are demanding that payment be made almost immediately, wherever the recipient is in the world and round the clock, all without any hiccups during transmission. ideally, payees would like to know exactly when they will take receipt of payment so as to be able to use that expected liquidity again in real time. if we are to fulfil these expectations then it will be necessary to massively expand the requirements that apply regarding the operation, oversight and analysis of payment and settlement systems. the operators of payment and settlement platforms, be they public or private in nature, are now consequently faced with growing challenges. the payments landscape is currently undergoing a number of significant developments that may prove game - changing. these include the advent of instant payments and the establishment of innovative fintech solutions as well as distributed ledger technology, which is built upon blockchain algorithms. the eurosystem is currently examining and enhancing its market infrastructure services by pursuing a range of project initiatives. on the one hand, following the successful migration of target2 securities, it is anticipated that the benefits and modern technology offered by this new platform can be put to use for target2 as well. moreover, in a second project, the eurosystem