the bank of mexico estimates that gdp will grow between 2 and 2. 8 percent in 2014 and between 3. 2 and 4. 2 percent in 2015. consensus analysts ’ point forecasts fall within these intervals. 2 the balance of risks for the growth scenario is to the upside. the possibility of higher - thananticipated economic expansion in the united states, as well as more constructive see inegi and banco de mexico ( 2014 ), encuesta mensual de opinion empresarial del sector manufacturero, september. see banco de mexico ( 2014 ), quarterly report, april – june 2014, summary, august ; and blue chip economic indicators, september 2014. bis central bankers ’ speeches investment sentiment stemming from progress in the implementation of structural reforms, contributes to this assessment. financial market developments since february, international financial market volatility has declined considerably due to expectations that the normalization of u. s. monetary policy will take place later than previously thought, and in a gradual way. a return to the search for yield has implied downward shifts for mexico ’ s yield curve, together with the long end of the u. s. curve. intermittent breaks in the calm since the end of july reflect the swinging of market expectations for the start of u. s. monetary tightening back toward an earlier timeframe, and heightened geopolitical pressures. in this context, the dollar has appreciated, and the prices of some emerging - market financial assets have fallen somewhat. in mexico, the recent increase in global risk aversion has fueled a higher term premium for government bonds and along with it, a steeper yield curve. however, the peso has depreciated less than the currencies of many other emerging - market economies. both markets have behaved in an orderly manner, with traded volumes high and bid - ask spreads tight. going forward, greater financial volatility and further downward pressure in asset prices cannot be ruled out. interest rates on a wide variety of securities in advanced countries, including high - yield bonds, remain close to all - time lows amid market uncertainty and speculative conditions, suggesting that these levels are not sustainable. in the monetary policy meeting of last july, the u. s. federal reserve said that it was within closer reach of its medium - term targets. also, many fomc members noted that if convergence to these targets accelerates, it would be appropriate to begin the tightening phase sooner than previously foreseen. in the

value. this shift from credit to debit makes sense from the perspective of the consumer. if credit is tight and consumption is contracting, consumers who are reluctant or unable to increase their debt levels can use debit cards to pay for current expenses out of current, rather than future, income. in addition, for individuals with existing credit card balances, interest must be paid on new purchases as well as on previous balances. those individuals might seek to avoid interest charges on new purchases by using debit cards. this incentive is even stronger in see the federal reserve board's report to the congress on the use of credit cards by small businesses and the credit card market for small businesses ( may 2010 ) at htttp : / / www. federalreserve. gov / pubs / reports _ other. htm. the presence of higher credit card interest rates. finally, some consumers might use debit cards to track their spending in real time when budgets are tight. regulatory changes in consumer credit and payments in addition to the economic recession and recovery, the regulations governing consumer payment and credit products changed significantly in the past few years. so it is especially difficult to separate the effects of economic conditions from regulatory effects on credit and debit card usage. in december 2008, the federal reserve issued rules that introduced new consumer protections and revised the disclosures that consumers receive in connection with their credit card accounts. then, in may 2009, the congress enacted the credit card accountability responsibility and disclosure ( credit card ) act, which contained additional provisions regarding credit cards and gift cards. collectively, these rules have comprehensively overhauled the regulatory regime that applies to credit cards. in large part, these reforms developed in response to concerns about the growing complexity of the products offered to consumers and concerns that consumers could not accurately assess the costs associated with their credit cards. to address these concerns, the federal reserve used extensive consumer testing to develop new disclosures to be provided with credit card solicitations and in periodic statements. these disclosures highlight key account terms and attempt to improve consumers ’ understanding of the costs associated with using their cards. the resulting disclosure requirements establish a new baseline for transparency in the credit card industry. in addition, the new rules ban certain practices that increase the cost of credit in ways that cannot easily be disclosed to consumers, such as double - cycle billing. the new rules also generally prohibit card issuers from increasing interest rates applied to existing balances and require issuers to provide adequate notice of higher rates