barriers such as time and costs. the african regional integration index9 was launched earlier this year for the purpose of measuring and providing an assessment of developments across the continent to identify gaps in terms of integration. the average regional economic lions on the move ii : realizing the potential of africa ’ s economies, mckinsey & company, september 2016. these are ivory coast ( 8, 5 per cent ), tanzania ( 6, 9 per cent ), and senegal ( 6, 6 per cent ). ‘ business in africa, making africa work ’, the economist, 16 april 2016 africa regional integration index report 2016 by the united nations economic commission for africa, african union and african development bank. page 5 of 11 community ( rec ) scores are around 0, 47 on a scale of 0 ( low ) to 1 ( high ). overall, the index shows that integration in the region could significantly progress, with the east african community the top performer ( 0, 54 ) followed closely by sadc10 ( 0, 531 ). it is interesting to note that the highest scores are on trade integration while the lowest scores are on financial and macroeconomic integration. the african central bank ( acb ) 11, one of the three financial institutions of the african union, is due to be set up by 2028, after the achievement of certain milestones, including the establishment of an african common market as well as an economic and monetary union that would include continental fiscal and banking unions. all these milestones ( including the establishment of the acb ) are envisaged to be achieved between 2029 and 2034. given the tight timelines, it is doubtful whether the establishment of the acb is still within schedule. it may therefore be useful to pause at this juncture and take stock in order to assess where the continent finds itself in its economic and financial integration journey in relation to set goals. the focus should first be on pursuing integration within regions before accelerating integration across the continent. 3. digital finance and financial inclusion globalisation and the information technology ( it ) revolution provide unprecedented opportunities for countries and regions to make significant advances in reducing poverty and improving incomes, which in turn could underpin the desired economic and social transformations. as the g20 high level principles for digital financial inclusion pointed out, one can no longer talk about growth without reference to the fourth industrial revolution and digital finance – a powerful and effective tool of expanding access beyond financial services to other sectors, holding enormous opportunities for the expansion of basic services and

which should translate into a rebound in labor force participation as more parents overseeing virtual education and child care are able to increase hours or return to the workforce. the biggest risk to the outlook continues to be the course of the pandemic. i see good reasons to be optimistic. vaccinations are proceeding at a rapid pace, and this progress is supporting decisions by state and local leaders to relax economic restrictions. most importantly, deaths related to the virus have continued to fall steadily and are at roughly the rate as in early october of last year. i remain hopeful that progress in the economic recovery can stay ahead of new challenges that might emerge, like the spread of new virus variants. that would allow states and localities to continue easing economic and social distancing restrictions and encourage consumers and businesses to return to normal activities. i understand that in colorado, for example, officials are considering lifting social - distancing restrictions on individuals and businesses. i would be interested to hear from this group about how businesses in colorado have been faring and whether they have seen an improvement in demand as the pandemic conditions are easing. while i am optimistic about the ongoing recovery, one lesson of the past year is the significant degree of uncertainty about the course of the virus and its effect on the economy. we experienced periods of considerable progress last year, but we saw some of that progress overtaken by waves of the infection late in the year. likewise, economic growth rebounded much more quickly than many had expected, but then slowed late in 2020 before regaining speed following the availability of the vaccine. even with recent encouraging reports on food services, activity in the travel, leisure, and hospitality sectors is still severely compromised, but is showing glimmers of activity. it may be some time before we know whether old habits will resume or new habits have developed that may define a post - pandemic new normal. as i noted in a recent speech, i am particularly concerned about the longer - term effect on small businesses, many of which have held on with government aid and loan forbearance programs that will soon expire. 1 it will be several months before we know the final count of permanent small business closures from 2020, but it could be more than we expect. i will now turn to how the federal reserve is proceeding in light of the strong signals of momentum building in the economy. the economic recovery is not yet complete, and the uncertain course of the pandemic still presents risks in the near term