inflation prints exceed the target and do not even correspond to the lowest inflation rates observed in mexico during recent years. these caveats are all the more important as the target has not been achieved in the past, in the sense that inflation has not been fluctuating around 3 percent. in fact, since the end of 2003 when this objective became effective, inflation has varied around a mean of 4. 3 percent. moreover, during the nine years after the establishment of the target, inflation has not exhibited any clear path of convergence towards it. this lack of convergence may for an excellent account of the persistence of financial crises and their common causes see reinhart, c. and k. rogoff ( 2012 ), this time is different : eight centuries of financial folly, princeton university press. bis central bankers ’ speeches partially explain why inflation expectations for the short and medium terms, as reflected in analysts ’ surveys, have long remained stubbornly above the target. 4 these considerations call for vigilance in monetary policy. the target is the principal guide and has not been attained. furthermore, negative shocks could easily complicate convergence. risks include the following : weather and animal health problems could fuel agricultural price rises ; new episodes of heightened risk aversion could trigger currency depreciation with some effects on inflation ; public - sector prices could be higher than anticipated ; and finally, some aggregate demand pressures may arise in light of conventional measures suggesting that slack in the economy has disappeared. concluding remarks in spite of a weak global environment, mexico ’ s gdp kept growing at rates surpassing historical records. analysts ’ outlook for the mexican economy posits a slight deceleration in 2013 and a recovery the following year. there are both downside and upside risks to this scenario, including on the positive side, further progress on structural reforms. substantial capital inflows resulting in unusually favorable financial conditions in mexico have been supportive of economic activity. however, economic agents should remain prudent as these flows, for many reasons, could stop and even revert. finally, the short period of recent improvement in inflation, the extraordinary factors that explain it, and the absence of convergence toward the inflation target, require a vigilant monetary policy. convergence of inflation to the permanent target demands more than a few months of good results. for empirical evidence of the lack of anchoring of inflation expectations on the target, see carrasco, c. and j. ferreiro ( 2012 ), “ inflation targeting and inflation expectations in

funds must be backed by capital as in the case of any other market and credit risks. it is, however, undisputable that, given the rapid developments in the hedge fund industry, activities must be monitored closely. system oversight in december, we reported on the situation with regard to the oversight of systemically important payment and securities settlement systems. in the meantime, the “ systemically important ” classifications of the interbank payment system swiss interbank clearing ( sic ), the securities settlement system secom, the central counterparty sis x - clear and the multi - currency payment system continuous linked settlement ( cls ) have become definitive, and the preparations for the oversight measures stipulated in the national bank ordinance are going ahead as scheduled. in particular, detailed guidelines were drawn up in order to examine whether or not the regulatory minimum requirements are complied with. with these guidelines, the different systems can be monitored consistently, while at the same time keeping the administrative effort of the operators at an acceptable level. business continuity planning ( bcp ) different experiences in the recent past – from the 9 / 11 terrorist attacks in the united states to minor local technical difficulties – suggest that measures to strengthen the operational resistance of the swiss financial sector must be taken. during the past year and a half, the snb has headed a sectoral working group in cooperation with the sfbc secretariat. the group consists of representatives from infrastructure providers, financial institutions and the authorities and has conducted an in - depth analysis of the business continuity plans of the major players in the financial markets. the business continuity planning ( bcp ) project focuses on precautionary measures to prevent the likelihood of disruptions. in addition, measures are taken to help cope as efficiently as possible with disruptions, once they have occurred. in its analysis, the working group focused on the two business processes which were considered to be especially critical for system stability and which must be maintained without fail even in exceptional circumstances. firstly, the supply of liquidity to the financial system with central bank money by means of repos and, secondly, large - value payment transactions between the commercial banks in swiss interbank clearing ( sic ). the analysis began with the following scenario : a severe disruption causing the failure of an important operational centre and incapacitating its staff. requirements were defined with regard to the maximum tolerable downtime before the resumption of normal operations. a distinction was made between critical and non - critical business processes, activities and participants. business processes were