this is indicated by our nowcast model, allowing us to download and process around 30 thousand prices of goods and services from around 130 websites in real time. in the nowcast model, we are also developing ai - based techniques. in the remainder of the year, we expect a further slowdown in inflation, so that in the course of the next year it should move around the target midpoint of 3 %. in q1, economic activity picked up to 4. 7 % y - o - y, with the annual growth anticipated at 3. 5 %. as early as the next year, economic growth is expected to speed up to 4 – 5 %, underpinned by the implementation of investments within the programme " leap into the future – serbia expo 2027 ", reduced global inflationary pressures and more favourable financing conditions. 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches a sound business environment, adequate policies and a modern regulatory framework helped preserve high capital adequacy of banks, liquidity ratios at double the minimum levels and npl ratio at around 3 %. thanks to a favourable general economic situation in the country, a considerable number of banks expects an over 5 % rise in household and corporate lending this and the next year, as reported in our latest bank lending survey. all of this confirms that macroeconomic conditions in serbia will remain conducive to both economic growth and further development of financial services. opportunities and challenges speaking of opportunities and challenges, there is no doubt that digital transformation is changing every line of business. it saves time as the most precious resource and frees human resources to work on more complex tasks. according to the last year's study of 600 companies across the globe, 64 % believe that the use of artificial intelligence will increase their productivity, while 40 % express concerns regarding dependence on technology. according to another study, the banking industry is expected to experience large positive effects from digital transformation in the amount of around 9 % to 15 % of operating profit. apart from automation of routine tasks and processes, digital transformation also enables advanced analytics, higher quality personalised services, as well as higher quality risk management. at the same time, users have de facto got a service that works 24 hours a day, seven days a week. therefore, opportunities are huge, but the challenges are not few. these include cyber security, risk outsourcing or different forms of the so - called phishing. we, the policymakers, are aware that the qualitative technological

consecutive year, the current account deficit was fully covered by net fdi inflows. in 2022, fdi inflows to serbia again exceeded our november expectations, and in conditions of elevated global uncertainty they measured eur 4. 4 bn ( or 7. 1 % of gdp ), which is the new highest level of annual inflow on record. – the nbs fx reserves are also at an all - time high, measuring eur 20. 9 billion in january and guaranteeing the stability of our economy, as indicated by the fact that they have exceeded the benchmark values of all reserve adequacy metrics. – a confirmation of our economy ’ s stability and its favourable growth prospects going forward, as well as of the full coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, are investors ’ high demand for our securities in the international financial market last month and the achieved financing conditions, especially if compared with countries that have already been rated investment grade. in the remainder of the conference, we will present macroeconomic movements in greater detail and our latest projections. * * * as for international developments, the period since we last met in november was marked by somewhat more favourable global growth prospects and signs that inflation is gradually retreating from its multidecade highs. against the backdrop of the energy crisis and tighter financial conditions, optimism emerged as the prices of gas and other energy fell in the eu, and china backtracked on the zero - tolerance strategy to the coronavirus. there is no doubt that global economic growth will decelerate this year, notably over the tightening of central banks ’ monetary policies and the prolonged conflict in ukraine. still, estimates indicate that the second half of the year will see a recovery, propped by the accelerated economic growth in china, gradual balancing of the energy market in europe, abated global uncertainties and further resolution of bottlenecks in international supply chains. 2 оf 10 chart 2 global supply chain pressures and overseas container transport prices chart 1 global inflation projection for 2023 and 2024 ( in % ) ( index, show n in standard deviations ) ( in usd ) 12, 000 9. 9 global price of contrainer transport, lhs 10, 000 gspi, rhs 8. 8 8. 1 7. 3 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 2, 000 6. 6 5. 5 4. 3 4. 6 2. 6 global inflation advanced economies source : imf. emerging economies - 1 source : federal reserve bank