been more or less steady at the low rate of around 1 percent. to me, this is all evidence of labor supply and demand in balance. back in 2022, i wrote a research note with fed economist andrew figura on the beveridge curve, which is the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate. 2 in that research, we projected that, if layoffs were steady, the unemployment rate would rise to around 4. 5 percent if the job vacancy rate dropped back to its prepandemic level of 4. 6 percent. the latest data estimated the vacancy rate in may as 4. 9 percent, pretty close to the pre - pandemic level. there were some prominent skeptics, but this data tells us that if inflation continues to moderate as it has since may, then we may achieve the soft landing in the labor market that i said back then was possible, with even less of a tradeoff in terms of unemployment. another sign of balance in the labor market is that wage growth has continued to slow. the twelve - month change in average hourly earnings has slowed from its peak of about 6 percent in march 2022, to 4. 3 percent by december 2023, and is down to 3. 9 percent as of june. the three - month increase through june was running at an annual pace of 3. 6 percent, which is close to what i judge is the rate needed to support inflation running at 2 percent in a sustained way. and this interpretation is consistent with other measures that suggest wage growth is back to its pre - pandemic level. so what lies ahead for the labor market? right now, the labor market is in a sweet spotemployment growth is not excessive when accounting for immigration, nominal wage growth is near the rate consistent with price stability, the unemployment rate is close to what is thought of as its long run value, the job vacancy rate is near its pre - pandemic level and the involuntary layoff rate has held steady at 1 percent for over 2 years. in terms of the employment leg of the dual mandate, we may well be able to achieve the soft landing. but we need to keep the labor market in this sweet spot. as my research note highlighted, the history of the beveridge curve indicates that, given the normalization of the labor market, a continued decline in the job vacancy rate and the vacancy - tounemployment ratio may lead to a larger increase in unemployment than we

. banks of all sizes have a shared interest in ensuring that regulation is efficient and appropriately tailored to promote a strong, fair, and competitive market for financial services. likewise, banks have a shared interest in ensuring that regulation overall promotes a strong and stable financial system that keeps credit flowing to households and businesses in the communities you serve. among the truths revealed by the financial crisis, one of the most important was the recognition that the vulnerabilities that had developed in the financial system were global in nature and that the problems our institutions and markets faced in the united states were inextricably connected to conditions and decisions outside our borders. other governments likewise found that problems in the united states spilled over to their financial systems and economies. to cite just one example, it is well known now that the rapid growth of securitization of residential mortgages in the united states was a prominent factor driving up home lending and driving down lending standards. i think it is not as well known that a large share of those securities were being created, traded, and held by entities outside the united states. 1 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches some of the most important steps taken since the crisis to make our financial system more resilient have involved collecting information, identifying and monitoring stresses in the global financial system, and establishing and raising international standards. as i have noted, the improvements the federal reserve is making to financial regulation here in america, including tailoring, will help level the playing field for banks and help ensure you are able to continue to compete and serve your customers. the benefits of this for utah banks are clear. but banks in utah and elsewhere also benefit from a strong and stable global financial system, and as history has demonstrated, this in turn depends on strong international standards that help level the playing field. a strong and stable financial system depends also on transparency that helps both the private sector and regulators detect and deter vulnerabilities that could harm the u. s. economy. so i ’ d also like to talk to you today about one of the important international bodies created since the crisis to promote global financial stability, the financial stability board ( fsb ) and tell you why i believe america ’ s active participation in the fsb is important to our nation, and even, as remote as it might seem, relevant to your businesses. but let me begin with a topic of more immediate interest and offer a brief overview of legislation and regulatory action by the federal reserve that i know is important to you and