about 0. 2 percentage points in 2020. in sum, the canadian economy is currently facing some headwinds, but there is good reason to believe that the economy will accelerate in the second half of this year. in this context, the bank ’ s governing council judges that an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted. we will continue to evaluate the appropriate degree of monetary policy accommodation as new data arrive. in particular, we are monitoring developments in household spending, oil markets and global trade policy to gauge the extent to which the factors weighing on growth and the inflation outlook are dissipating. with that, senior deputy wilkins and i would be happy to take your questions. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

g. the last ten or fifteen years ) the conclusions are the same. in this context, some economies have implemented foreign exchange measures, including interventions to mitigate the appreciation of their currencies. while these actions may be desirable in certain situations – chile has actually used them in the past and they are part of its policy toolkit – implementing them requires a careful evaluation of both the benefits and costs to the country. these measures are appropriate to correct an over - reaction in the value of the currency against its medium - and long - term fundamentals or as a way to build an international reserve position, providing greater safety in the event of a sharp contraction of external financing. these benefits are difficult to quantify objectively, but it is reasonable to think that the lower the availability of reserves or the further away the real exchange rate is from its long - term trend, the greater the benefits. at the same time, we must always bear the costs associated with these interventions in mind. first, there is the direct financial cost, because the reserves are invested in highly liquid and safe instruments, but whose interest rates are lower than that of the local instruments financing their acquisition. this generates a significant cost that eats into the bis central bankers ’ speeches central bank ’ s net worth. moreover, it is important to preserve the flexibility of the exchange rate in the chilean economy because it facilitates accommodating external shocks. the major external crises we have faced in the past have been associated with overly rigid exchange rate regimes, which exacerbate credit cycles and mismatches, delay relative - price adjustments and when they finally occur, they have high financial and real costs for the economy. as usual, our baseline scenario reflects those events that are believed to be the most likely with the information at hand at the closing of this report. there are risk scenarios, however, which if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic environment – in some cases, significantly – and therefore, may alter the course of monetary policy. on this opportunity, having evaluated the alternative scenarios, the board estimates that the risk balance is biased upward for output and unbiased for inflation. internationally, the probability of negative scenarios in the united states have moderated in recent months and in china the threat of a sharp correction in growth has eased. however, the possibility of tensions intensifying in the eurozone has not receded. the fiscal and financial fragility in this region persists and the ability of policy makers to implement