also provides a stable framework for monetary policy. under such conditions, the effect of monetary policy instruments will be more predictable. the uncertainty facing economic agents is reduced through the establishment of credible fiscal policy guidelines. a stable operating environment is an important precondition when decisions that have long - term consequences shall be taken. this will also contribute to stability in financial markets. the guidelines that were introduced last year stated : “ fiscal policy has the main responsibility for stabilising developments in the norwegian economy ”. if fiscal policy is to continue to contribute to smoothing fluctuations in the economy at the same time that the guidelines for the phasing in of petroleum revenues are to appear credible, the guidelines should be applied in such a way that they place a strict limit on the average use of petroleum revenues over time. this means that if we use more than the expected return in one period, we must use less than the expected return in other periods. the guidelines allow the use of petroleum revenues to be adapted to some extent to the cyclical situation. fiscal policy will then ease the burden on monetary policy in the sense that the inflation target, and hence nominal stability, can be achieved with fewer changes in monetary policy. however, permitting a discretionary use of fiscal policy also involves temptations. it will probably always be easier to increase spending over government budgets during a downturn than it will be to reduce spending when the cyclical situation again improves. in that case, fiscal policy may prove to be more expansionary over time than implied by the guidelines. this will have to be countered by a tighter monetary policy, and there is also a risk that doubt arises as to whether the guidelines actually apply. the need for credibility may therefore in itself indicate that cyclical considerations should only very seldom lead to discretionary deviations from the main rule. automatic stabilisers will still have an effect. i believe that our politicians are aware of this risk. in the national budget for 2002, the budget balance was cyclically adjusted by nok 5. 1 billion, which shows that we are experiencing a period of strong expansion. the plans nevertheless called for the use of petroleum revenues in 2002 that was identical to the expected real return on the petroleum fund at the beginning of the fiscal year. hence, it is only via automatic stabilisers that fiscal policy will be adapted to the cyclical situation this year. i interpret this to mean that the threshold for departing from the main rule is high. structural effects on the norwegian economy as may be

and the ecb. in particular, i would like to pay tribute to the statistics committee of the european system of central banks ( escb ) and the european committee for monetary, financial and balance of payments statistics ( cmfb ) for the very fruitful role they play. in fact, since i last addressed this audience, in april 2004, significant progress has been made, although also still much remains to be done. concerning the euro area statistics compiled by the ecb, in close cooperation with the ncbs, i would like to recall some recent enhancements : • since january 2005, the euro area balance of payments has contained a quarterly geographical breakdown of the counterparties involved in transactions with residents. • furthermore, the international investment position ( i. i. p. ) statistics, which show the balance sheet of the euro area, are now available at a quarterly frequency. • in a different field, the ecb now regularly compiles a set of statistical indicators that shed light on the state of euro area financial integration in many different financial markets. • another improvement concerns the semi - annual release by the ecb of a residential property price indicator for the euro area. • the ecb ’ s publication of the quarterly government revenue, expenditure and deficit for the euro area, based on contributions from nsis, was recently complemented by fairly detailed data on government debt and the deficit - debt adjustment. • the ecb ’ s financial analysis benefits from separate statistics that are now available for securities issued at fixed and floating rates, and zero - coupon bonds. • finally, the accessibility of ecb statistics and the national breakdowns has been enhanced as the same set of tables is now available on the websites of the ecb and of most of the eurosystem ncbs, in the national languages of the central banks concerned. in addition to the financial and monetary statistics compiled by the eurosystem, the ecb makes intensive use of general economic statistics compiled by eurostat and the nsis. first and foremost, this concerns the harmonised index of consumer prices ( hicp ) for the euro area, which has continued to be both timely and reliable. in this context, the gap between inflation perceptions and actual inflation is now decreasing in many euro area countries. as you know, this gap originated when the euro was introduced and it became complex for consumers to process price information. the ecb also supports the further development work in this field, including the priority attached to compiling a reliable indicator for