loans. we announced that we could increase the rate to a higher level earlier if credit growth significantly accelerates. our decisions were taken despite the fact that the standard metric of how the credit - to - gdp ratio deviates from its long - term trend remained deep in negative territory. furthermore, we strengthened the macroprudential powers of the bulgarian national bank. the key element here was the introduction into bulgarian law of a framework of borrower - based measures – requirements such as loan - to - value ( ltv ) and loan - to - income ( lti ) – in addition to the existing capital - based measures. as monetary easing in the euro area is likely to stay for quite some time, policymaking in the noneuro area countries affected by the ecb ’ s monetary policy needs to remain attentive. from a regulatory and a supervisory perspective, both positive and negative externalities from the euro area to our economies will need to be properly managed. the original text is published in english and can be read here. 1 / 1 bis central bankers'speeches

to 2. 5 percent, and 1. 2 to 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively ( chart 8 ). turning to prices, they are likely to be under considerable downward pressure from the effects of a particular factor - - namely, the significant decline in mobile phone charges. however, as for other items, price cuts that aim at stimulating demand have not been and are not likely to be observed widely. thereafter, the year - on - year rate of change in the cpi is expected to increase gradually, on the back of the output gap continuing to improve along with economic recovery and the effects of the reduction in mobile phone charges dissipating. in the april outlook report, the forecasts of the majority of policy board members for the year - on - year rate of change in the core cpi are in the range of 0. 0 to 0. 2 percent, 0. 5 to 0. 9 percent, and 0. 7 to 1. 0 percent for fiscal 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively ( chart 8 ). however, the outlook for economic activity and prices remains highly unclear. in particular, the impact of covid - 19 on domestic and overseas economies continues to require close and careful monitoring. the outlook is based on the assumption that the impact of covid - 19 will wane gradually and then almost subside in the middle of the projection period. however, the pace of the vaccine rollout and the effectiveness of the vaccines entail uncertainties, and thus there is a risk that downward pressure on economic activity will increase. it is also uncertain how firms'and households'appetite for spending and their behavior, including price setting, will change due to the shock caused by covid - 19 that has pushed down the economy considerably. moreover, if covid - 19 has a larger impact than expected, attention should be paid to the risk that deterioration in the real economy will affect financial system stability, thereby exerting further downward pressure on the real economy. ii. conduct of monetary policy with regard to the bank's policy conduct, i would like to talk about ( 1 ) policy responses in light of the impact of covid - 19 and ( 2 ) further effective and sustainable monetary easing. a. policy responses in light of the impact of covid - 19 let me first touch on policy responses in light of the impact of covid - 19. the bank has conducted powerful monetary easing since march 2020 in response to