##ilient monetary union. 10 and let me be clear : we should only embark on new projects if there is a consensus that joint action is necessary, that it is clearly linked to people ’ s concerns and that it addresses a matter of european or global relevance. when we do take joint action, we need to be consistent in our efforts and complete the initiatives we have started. half - built houses are the most dangerous option. we cannot take competences away from the national level without empowering the union level to provide at least as much protection for citizens as they had before. and where responsibilities are clearly assigned to one level, there needs to be commensurate democratic accountability at that level. conclusion let me conclude. policies often create winners and losers. for this to be acceptable at european level, we need to share a feeling of belonging together as europeans. one way to develop and strengthen that feeling of belonging is to share tangible common goods that we can all relate to. democracy comes to mind first. the euro is another example, and so is the commitment to make our social model sustainable. they bring us together and shape our identity in the world. 1 on the backlash against financial globalisation and how it could be better designed, see also b. cœure, “ the case for rethinking international capital flows ”, paris, 15 september 2016. 2 in september 2016, youth unemployment stood at 37. 1 % in italy and 42. 6 % in spain. youth unemployment stood at 42. 7 % in greece in july 2016. see eurostat euro indicators, 3 november 2016. 3 european youth in 2016, special eurobarometer of the european parliament, may 2016. 4 see cœure, b., “ monetary policy and the risk of a lost decade ”, speech at the amundi world investment forum 2013, paris, 5 july 2013. 5 for a discussion on the need for a more political europe, see moscovici, p., “ keynote public address at the 2016 summit on the future of europe ”, november 2016, harvard university, minda de gunzburg center for european studies. 6 remarks at a joint press conference with chancellor merkel, berlin, 17 november 2016. 7 in spring 2016, support for the single currency stood at 68 % in the euro area, with a majority of citizens in favour of the euro in all euro area member states. 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches 8 see also draghi, m

however, in an environment of disruptive change, central banks cannot narrowly rely on model - based forecasts. structural change often has large effects on the stability of model parameters and on the appropriate assumptions underlying these models. such uncertainty puts a premium on incoming data. in particular, actual inflation outcomes, pricesetting intentions and data on the current state of the economy can provide important insights for policymakers about the likely persistence of inflation, and what this may imply for the appropriate policy stance. equally important are indicators summarising the impact of interest rate changes on the price and availability of credit to firms and households. such indicators are useful complements to highly uncertain estimates of the equilibrium rate of interest to inform our thinking about when, and to what extent, monetary policy is becoming restrictive for growth. for example, the latest european commission survey shows that the share of firms reporting financial constraints as limiting production remains near historically low levels. bank lending to firms even expanded notably in july and august from already elevated levels, and firms continue to add new jobs, suggesting that monetary policy continues to stimulate growth and employment. considering these data and the above - target medium - term inflation outlook, further increases in our key policy rates will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to our 2 % target in a timely manner. thank you. annexes 30 september 2022 slides english 1. schnabel, i. ( 2022 ), “ monetary policy and the great volatility ”, speech at the jackson hole economic policy symposium organised by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, jackson hole, wyoming, 27 august. 2. see, for example, schwarzer, j. a. 2018, " retrospectives : cost - push and demand - pull inflation : milton friedman and the " cruel dilemma ", journal of economic perspectives, 32 ( 1 ), pp. 195 - 210. 3. see bobeica et al. ( 2019 ), “ the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area ”, ecb working paper no 2235. 4. the minimum wage will be increased to €12 per hour from currently €10. 45. 5. ifo ( 2022 ), increase in the german minimum wage is passed on as higher prices, 9 september. 6. gali, j. and gertler, m. ( 1999 ), “ inflation dynamics : a structural econometric analysis ”, journal of monetary economics, vol. 44, no 2, pp. 195