of what can be expected in coming months. in the medium run, the effects on inflation, and underlying inflation in particular, will likely depend on two broad factors : first, the depth and persistence of the shock, including possibly protracted hysteresis effects in labour, financial and product markets ; and, second, on the effectiveness of the economic policy measures taken in response to the crisis. although it is too early to assess the full impact of these measures, there is tentative evidence that the fast and resolute policy actions by authorities worldwide, and by central banks in 5 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches particular, have already contributed to restoring cautious confidence among professional forecasters. for example, the latest private sector forecasts collected by consensus economics still point towards expectations of a v - shaped recovery for the euro area, with a sharp mean decline in gdp of 5. 7 % this year and a rebound of almost similar magnitude in 2021 ( slide 6, left chart ). as a result, while inflation expectations for this year have dropped sharply, the revisions to inflation expectations for the coming years have been limited, and private sector forecasters continue to see inflation in the euro area converging to levels closer to 2 % over the next three to four years ( slide 6, right chart ). but two points are worth noting. first, uncertainty around these estimates is considerable, with forecasts for next year ’ s inflation ranging from – 0. 4 % to 2. 5 %. any mid - point forecast therefore needs to be taken with a grain of salt. second, private sector forecasts appear considerably more optimistic than the latest projections by the imf, which sees euro area gdp contracting by 7. 5 % this year and predicts a markedly weaker rebound of only 4. 7 % in 2021. conclusion let me conclude. what shape the recovery will ultimately take remains highly uncertain at the current juncture, even as authorities gradually start to ease lockdown measures in some economies. the ecb has responded forcefully to this historic crisis by adopting a wide - ranging set of carefully calibrated measures that collectively help mitigate the economic and financial fallout from the pandemic. our measures contribute to easing financing conditions of firms and households and supporting banks in their effort to maintain viable liquidity conditions in the economy at large. the governing council will continue to monitor closely the implications of the pandemic for the economy, and stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that

to protect themselves against counterparty risks. in conclusion, the stability of the financial system is also dependent on the assumption of ample market liquidity and, most critically, of the smooth functioning of the payment systems and market infrastructures. second, the complexity of the financial system has greatly increased. this complexity applies not only to individual financial instruments, but also to the financial system as a whole. its various segments have become more closely interconnected and the linkages across them more opaque. a new configuration of players in the financial system has led to a blurring of distinctions between different types of intermediaries, to greater consolidation, and to a rapid growth of new financial players and services. payment, clearing and settlement systems naturally evolve in response to such financial market developments. as the number of new financial products is growing and existing markets are rapidly expanding, the infrastructure needs to be in the position to handle such developments. a good example is the evolution of clearing and settlement arrangements for otc derivatives. it took a while for the infrastructure to adjust to the tremendous growth in otc derivatives. eventually, with support from central banks, the most pressing shortcomings began being addressed. today, there is a far higher degree of automation, new technical processes have been introduced, and innovative services are available. the infrastructure for the otc derivatives markets will undoubtedly continue to evolve. whatever path the evolution takes, as the market infrastructure moves further in the direction of centralised processing of trades and posttrade events, several issues will assume greater importance. first, providers of essential post - trade services for otc derivatives should provide open access to their services and should aim to achieve convenient and efficient connectivity with other systems. moreover, central banks and supervisors will need to consider whether certain existing standards for securities settlement systems, central counterparties or systemically important payment systems should be applied to providers of clearing and settlement services for otc derivatives. including new players in stress - testing the system is challenging and requires cooperation and timely transparency. many of these new players are non - banks. it is therefore important to look at the role of non - banks in payment and settlement systems. payment, clearing and settlement services have traditionally been offered by banks and non - banks alike. the coexistence of banks and non - banks raises some important regulatory questions. in fact, while there is a trend towards common regulatory standards, banks would typically argue that they are subject to prudential supervision and that there is no need for further regulation.