- through to wage growth [ 10 ], especially as labour markets are now tighter than before the pandemic. but other forces may increasingly push in the opposite direction and contain the risk of second - round effects, as what i have dubbed “ bad ” inflation – the inflation resulting from supply shocks – compresses real incomes. the reduction in real wages and purchasing power is weakening domestic demand, with several leading indicators already pointing to a likely contraction in economic activity, starting from the last quarter of this year. the euro area pmi composite output index fell in october to its lowest level since november 2020, [ 11 ] with forward - looking indicators of activity particularly weak. [ 12 ] consumer confidence plummeted to historical lows. [ 13 ] and financial and credit indicators also point to significant downside risks to gdp growth ( chart 4 ). chart 4 downside risks to euro area real gdp growth lower tail of the distribution of real gdp growth forecasts for q1 and q3 2023 based on “ gdp - at - risk ” models ( quarter - on - quarter change in percentage points ) source : ecb calculations. notes : for each horizon, the chart shows the median of estimates of the lower quantile ( 10th percentile ) forecast across the suite of “ gdp - at - risk ” models maintained by ecb staff, as well as the interquartile range to account for model uncertainty. these estimates are predicated mainly on developments in financial conditions, credit, risk, and the macroeconomy. forecasts are conditional on financial data up to mid - october 2022 and real economy indicators up to the end of september 2022. these forces pushing on the downside might be reduced if supply bottlenecks continue to ease ( chart 5 ) and energy commodity and electricity prices continue to fall from their highs ( chart 6 ). [ 15 ] but this would then also improve the inflation outlook and reduce the likelihood of “ ugly ” inflation taking hold. chart 5 easing of supply chain bottlenecks pmi suppliers ’ delivery times ( left panel ) and global supply shortages index ( right panel ) ( diffusion indices ) sources : s & p global, markit and ecb staff calculations. notes : the global supply shortages index measures how many selected items have been in short supply against their long - run average for each month. the long - run average refers to value 1 of the index. the shaded minimummaximum range refers to the 5th - 95th percentile range

although the ecb stands ready to provide any assistance that may be required i think, for instance, that a trade repository, acting as an aggregator of several others, could ensure the most suitable data coverage, leaving us the flexibility to shape the data aggregation and analysis in line with our evolving needs. however what is important is ensuring a timely and detailed, complete central view on the market. in fact, the ecb does not need to centralise itself the data gathering, provided it has access to all the information it requires. having talked about potential synergies that could be explored i would as a side remark also like to point to the potential use of a trade repository to establish a new benchmark on secured financing. the discussions on potential improvements of current unsecured or secured rates pointed to the need to move to more transactions based figures. a repo trade repository at first sight looks as a promising candidate for establishing and calculating a new benchmark for repo rates based on actual transactions. so i leave it to today ’ s joint discussion among the representatives of the industry and authorities to debate what could be an optimal solution to achieve the result we need. whether we will need an eu central database as opposed to a complete, fully fledged trade repository as done for other market segments will depend on several factors that you are going to debate in the course of the day. in the case of repo, and contrary to other financial market segments, plenty of relevant data of interest to central banks are already channelled from the trading layer for execution to various categories of intermediaries, oftentimes via ccps, to the payment clearing and settlement systems. one key topic for discussion today is thus how to ensure this set of highly critical but dispersed data can be adjusted, formatted, complemented if necessary, and channelled, to form the much needed central view on the market. it will be indispensable today to identify practical solutions on how information can effectively and efficiently be retrieved and fed to a database, by whom, and to whom, under what governance and technical channels, and what shall be the indispensable confidentiality requirements to ensure an appropriate level of data disclosure taking into account the needs of authorities and different stakeholders. while i say “ practical ” issues, i am aware that they entail sensitive policy discussions and choices to be made that may affect market participants in various ways, not least in terms of costs. in the light of the way ahead that will emerge from the