produce a new one. most people who take note of your forecasts have in any case already forgotten the last one that you made. 5. remember the assumptions which form the basis of every forecast. they are often so unrealistic that the forecast is also nearly worthless. 6. make forecasts on the basis of objective analyses, and not on what suits your book or the book of your clients. it doesn ’ t help to be popular but wrong. 7. be grateful if you are sometimes right in this difficult game of trial and error - it may not happen again. 5. concluding remarks the integration of south africa in the world financial markets is an on - going process that is linking developments in the major financial aggregates in this country more and more to developments in the rest of the world. because of this process, economic forecasting has become much more complex. not only changes in the south african situation influence developments in important financial aggregates, such as interest and exchange rates, but also events in remote places such as indonesia. economic forecasters have great responsibility, not only to provide consistent and sensible forecasts, but also to understand and explain the shortcomings of even their best efforts - and to remember that even bad forecasts can sometimes become self - fulfilling. [UNK]

of the harsh but not unreasonable disciplines of the global markets. 2. south africa and financial globalisation over the past few years, the south african financial sector has moved quite fast on the road of globalisation. in the annual report for 1997 of the bank supervision department of the reserve bank, interesting information has been made available about developments in the south african banking sector in 1997. there are now more than 20 foreign banks operating in south africa through locally - established branches or subsidiaries, and more than 60 foreign banks with representative offices in south africa. south african banks are also extending their activities to the rest of the [UNK] - [UNK] world and during 1997 obtained permission from the registrar ’ s office to establish more than 45 branches, subsidiaries, and representative offices in other countries around the world. at the end of 1997, the total south african banking sector utilised more than r35 billion in foreign funding, and carried loans extended by them in foreign currencies of about r17½ billion. the foreign liabilities and foreign assets of the south african banking sector, respectively, represented but small percentages of the total assets ( or total liabilities ) of the banking sector, estimated at about r440 billion as at 31st december 1997. foreign funds as a source of financing of the activities of south african banking institutions are, however, still increasing. it is well - known that non - resident investors have become very important participants in the south african financial markets. over the past 16 months, that is since the beginning of 1997, non - resident investors increased their holdings of south african equities by r45. 6 billion, and their holdings of south african bonds by r31. 1 billion. the south african government raised a total amount of approximately r11. 3 billion in seven public loan issues made in international capital markets since december 1994. at the same time, many south african public and private sector borrowers also made use of the foreign financial markets to fund the expansion of their activities in south africa, and in the rest of the world. the gradual relaxation of exchange controls has indeed enabled south african residents to acquire large foreign assets abroad. the following estimates provide some indication of the extent of these investments since the beginning of 1994 : direct foreign investment by south african corporates portfolio foreign investment by south african institutional investors portfolio foreign investment by south african private individuals r44. 3 billion r37. 4 billion r1. 1 billion volumes in the south african foreign exchange market increased substantially in recent times. at this jun