samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
the prospects must be for a relatively quick rebound of activity.

##turn as inventories adjusted in the opposite direction ; • an investment boom which uses up all the best investment opportunities and whose euphoria drives investment into marginally profitable projects ; • related to this, funding ( particularly equity finance ) which had been liberally given in the early phase of the cycle dries up as the financial sector comes to recognise the degree of overcommitment and attempts to compensate ( or over - compensate ) for this ; • asset prices, driven up by over - optimism about profit potential, spill over into investment decisions ; • households, buoyed by rising asset prices and the general euphoria, run down their savings, leaving them vulnerable to a sudden change in confidence. all this jerky dynamic seems very relevant to america, and inapplicable to australia. let's contrast the cyclical position in the two countries. first and foremost is the contrast between the share markets. with no nasdaq bubble, the australian equity market has continued to increase steadily throughout the period, and is currently still close to its peak, contrasting to, say, the wilshire which is nearly 30 per cent below. australia has no stories of 14 - year - old boy - millionaires who ramped their chosen shares via a chat - room canard : nor, more substantively, of entrepreneurs with backwards - facing baseball caps attracting serious funding on the promise of a rapid " cash - burn ". so we didn't get the same degree of distorted investment decisions and ephemeral wealth - driven consumption. business fixed investment expanded rapidly in america during the 1990s, to well above its historical average. investment in information technology and communications equipment surged, with capacity to produce this equipment expanding by 50 per cent in the past year alone. in contrast, in australia business investment has trended upwards during much of the 1990s, but in recent years has fallen back a little, to remain around its long - term average. there is in no sense a problem of over - investment. slow but steady wins the race. similarly, australian household saving has not followed the american example into negative territory. the us financial sector is showing all the signs of concern about rising risks and lowering profit expectations in the business sector. spreads between yields on us treasury securities and corporate bonds have widened noticeably. the data on ipos shows that it became increasingly difficult during the year to get these away. commercial banks became more cautious in their lending, particularly after the large amounts they had directed to telecom companies. by
transition process as one which entails multiple and carefully sequenced steps, beginning with the stabilisation of the jibar to secure the transition period. this is followed by the establishment of new rates and foundations for new markets, and then by the adoption of those rates before full transition takes place. thus far, the work of the mpg has largely focused on strengthening the current jibar framework in line with the first step, as well as on finding new alternatives. this work has now been completed and the project is proceeding to the next phase which entails thinking about the most suitable transition approach to be adopted by south africa. as its work is advancing, the mpg intends to keep all stakeholders informed of its progress and the next steps, and this is why we are here today. thus, the purpose of today ’ s mpg forum is twofold : page 3 of 4 first, to report on and inform stakeholders of key decisions, considerations and recommendations made by the mpg in relation to the reform of the jibar and the choice of an alternative overnight reference rate for south africa ; and second, to outline the envisioned transition process to an overnight rate as a key reference rate for the south african financial market. as we engage in this conversation, i wish to reiterate the position the sarb has taken regarding the future of the jibar. earlier, i alluded to deficiencies in the current jibar framework, which have led to the sarb taking a decision to reform the jibar. the unsecured reference rate work stream and later the jibar task team have done commendable work in this regard, to ensure that the jibar framework is strengthened to enhance its robustness. however, changes to the jibar framework should not be understood as implying that the jibar will continue indefinitely. the sarb, as the benchmark administrator of the jibar, has decided that the jibar will cease at some future point. the enhanced framework will remain in place for a limited time, after which south africa will transition to alternative reference rates. in the new interest rate dispensation, we expect that the key reference rate will be an overnight near risk - free rate, which may or may not co - exist alongside a risk - based term rate. at this point i would like to hand over to my colleagues to share with you the decisions that have been taken thus far, their motivations as well as the trade - offs we have had to manage leading up to

those decisions being taken. thank you. page 4 of 4
practices and better supervisory oversight, not only for derivatives, but also for bank risk management more generally. together, the industry and agency response helped stave off potentially restrictive legislation. another example of how supervisors are trying to build on bank management practices is their use of internal value - at - risk models in the calculation of capital requirements for market risk. by relying on internal models already used by the institutions for their trading and risk management activities, regulators can reduce burden while vastly improving the accuracy of the capital calculation. in addition, by embracing internal models for regulatory purposes, supervisors are encouraging organizations to incorporate sophisticated risk models more fully and formally into their risk management systems and to continue to upgrade and improve the models. as these two examples illustrate, supervisors recognize that they do not have all the answers and that rigid regulatory solutions may often do more harm than good. a supervisory approach that promotes continued improvements in private sector practices provides the right incentives to industry and, in the case of banking, also reduces risks to the federal safety net. in these ways, supervisors are placing greater reliance on a bank ’ s own risk management system as the first line of defense for ensuring safety and soundness. we also want to rely more on market discipline as another line of defense. this requires increased, improved disclosure of a bank ’ s activities, risk exposures, and philosophy for managing and controlling risk. we have made significant gains for derivatives and market risks. hopefully we will see further gains in other areas in the years ahead. while it is important for supervisors to identify risk at individual banks, as the central bank the federal reserve must also be watchful for conditions and trends external to the banking system that could place the financial system and the economy at risk. this broader perspective has become especially important with the globalization of banking and integration of markets. that is why the federal reserve has worked closely with financial regulators around the world to reduce systemic risk and promote sound banking practices and improved disclosures among both developed and emerging countries. these efforts have led to the advancement by the bis of core principles of bank supervision for authorities world - wide and, significantly, promotion of consolidated supervision of banking organizations by home country authorities. the issue of consolidated supervision is particularly relevant in revisiting the question of the modernization of the banking system. i will come to that in a moment. financial modernization and umbrella supervision first i would like to point out that whether legislative agreement is reached or not, market forces will continue the modernization of the financial services industry and will further

bank to have a significant role in comprehensive financial institution supervision.
. before i do that, though, i would like to welcome you once again and thank all of you for accepting our invitation to this event.

the crisis, while the role of the state faces much less scrutiny. the question of whether monetary authorities, prior to the crisis, properly regulated interest rates as a key price in the economy attracts much less attention in the debate than it should. the same is true for the question of whether the existing store of individual countries'supervision tools was used correctly and adequately before the crisis. this is interesting, as the crisis poses some new challenges and questions. should monetary policy try to stabilize a broader set of indicators in the future, not just prices of consumer goods, but also real - estate or other asset prices? does it make sense to have a separate currency but not to have an autonomous monetary policy, like the baltic countries and bulgaria, or to have a separate currency but not to have an effective lender of last resort, like iceland? doesn't the system of exchange - rate pegs, quasi - pegs or currency boards increase imbalances of those who are pegged, and thus their vulnerability in a crisis? these questions are important, but they are not being properly discussed in the current debate. many forget that the state's role in the financial sector is already huge. central banks, finance ministries and various state agencies across the globe do regulate and supervise the financial industry more, not less, than many other industries. yet that is precisely why every further tightening of the screws should be carefully considered and analyzed, not adopted under pressure or threat, hastily or imprudently. one should bear in mind that regulation never distinguishes the bad banks from the good ones. and even this crisis has revealed that many financial institutions are in good shape and coping with its consequences quite well. although many people won't admit it, new rules being drawn up today will radically affect the financial market tomorrow and beyond. that's the way it goes : times of crisis permit dramatic and rapid changes that would not be implementable, or even thinkable, under normal circumstances. but when the dust settles, it is very difficult to reverse them. all thinking people in the financial sector should want to ensure that the rash solutions adopted in the present bad times, many of which will do little or no good anyway, do not in the long run generate much worse times for the industry, and hence its clients. putting out a fire is one thing. but improving the fire regulations is quite another. certainly a large fire can provide inspiration for future fire prevention. but it is by no means wise to fight the
the opportunity for entrepreneurship to people who otherwise might not have it. although some businesses will inevitably fall by the wayside, those that flourish and grow are likely to have better management and better long - term prospects than they would have without the support accion usa, get a loan, https : / / secure. accionusa. org. of microenterprise programs. successful microbusinesses provide jobs as well as valuable products and services to their communities. not least important, they can provide economic independence and self - reliance for the owner - entrepreneurs. the full benefits of this movement are difficult to calculate. indeed, one important challenge for the future is to find ways to better measure the impact and cost effectiveness of microfinance programs. what is clear is that the microfinance movement has grown and adapted considerably during its short history in the united states. i hope that microfinance organizations will sustain their energetic spirit of innovation and experimentation as they strive to become more self - sufficient and adapt to our ever - changing economy. references assanie, laila, and raghav virmani ( 2006 ). " incubating microfinance : the texas border experience ", federal reserve bank of dallas, southwest economy ( september / october ), pp. 3 - 7. board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2007 ). report to the congress on the availability of credit to small businesses. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, october. carr, james h., and zhong yi tong, eds. ( 2002 ). replicating microfinance in the united states. washington : woodrow wilson center press. cowan, charles d., and adrian m. cowan ( 2006 ). " a survey - based assessment of financial institution use of credit scoring for small business lending ( 690 kb pdf ) ". washington : u. s. small business administration, office of advocacy, november. edgcomb, elaine l., and joyce a. klein ( 2005 ). " opening opportunities, building ownership : fulfilling the promise of microenterprise in the united states ". washington : microenterprise fund for innovation, effectiveness, learning and development ( field ) at the aspen institute, february, www. fieldus. org / projects / movingforward. html. holtz - eakin, douglas, david joulfaian, and harvey s. rosen ( 1994a ). " entrepreneurial decisions and liquidity constraints "

), article 106290. - 14 conclusion let me conclude by reiterating that technological innovation and resilience are both attributes of a healthy financial system. i will, of course, remain vigilant with respect to vulnerabilities that appear to be evolving as well as emerging risks, but i see a system that is sound, resilient, and able to support the needs of households, communities, and businesses. the good position of the financial system is consistent with a broader economy that is strong, with a solid labor market and moderating inflation. thank you for your indulgence and thanks, again, to dean logue and the university of michigan law school for hosting this conference. i look forward to our discussion.
to your friends and parents. if this happens, we are confident that these efforts will redound to the benefit of the population as a whole.

in response to these changes, and that we offer insights and clear expectations to help banks manage associated challenges. broad innovation considerations community banks continue to play a vital role in supporting local communities. their ability to thrive in an increasingly digital landscape is critical to the economic well - being of those communities. through my regular engagement with community bank leaders, i do see innovation thriving. when banks can be agile in developing relationships with third - party providers to meet unique customer needs, they can find their own paths to innovation. for example, community banks approach the evolving payment needs of tech savvy customers from many different angles. their solutions include partnering with financial technology ( or fintech ) companies, developing peer - to - peer payment solutions with their core providers, and even hiring outside developers to create their own apps that will best serve customers ’ needs. while positive trends in community bank innovation are encouraging, i am also attuned to the challenges community banks face when seeking to innovate. i have heard from many community 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches bankers about the constraints they face in taking advantage of new technologies — both in terms of the resources and the expertise required to adopt innovative technologies in a responsible manner. the cost of conducting due diligence on prospective partners can be high for community banks already facing capacity constraints. seeking a partnership with a newly established fintech company may introduce additional complications. for example, a less experienced partner may be able to offer a product that fits a community bank ’ s needs but may not understand the bank ’ s regulatory obligations or have fully developed operational or compliance frameworks. gaps in the ability to demonstrate or guarantee compliance can introduce risk that a community bank will need to fully understand and ultimately to manage. in december 2020, i spoke about several initiatives being pursued by the federal reserve targeted at promoting access to innovation for community banks and overcoming related challenges. today i am happy to provide updates and announcements about those initiatives. i hope that each provides additional clarity and serves as a valuable resource to community banks as they pursue their own innovation strategies. community bank / fintech partnership paper the first initiative is the publication of a paper highlighting some of the promising ways that community banks are partnering with fintech companies. it lays out some important issues that banks must consider to maximize the effectiveness of the partnership. this paper is the product of an extensive outreach effort with community banks, fintechs, and industry stakeholders. it involved discussions focused on the strategic and tactical decisions that support effective partnerships in
##sseminate the latest technology in production, process and marketing. embodied in foreign investment is the transfer of technology that can be adapted and internalized to suit the local conditions. fourth, the state has a major role to play and cannot retreat to the sidelines as a disinterested bystander. maintenance of macroeconomic stability, pursuit of sound economic policies, provision of physical infrastructure, assuring security of property and person, adjudicating disputes, respecting property rights and enforcing contracts, investing in research and development and more generally in public goods are some of the elements of the enabling environment that governments create for private businesses to flourish. fifth, no country in the world can aspire to achieve sustainable improvement in the living standards of its people unless it has invested in education health, nutrition, drinking water, in other words, in human development. this is going to be even more pressing in the 21st century as the world becomes a knowledge - based economy. a literate, healthy, educated and continuously learning and adapting labor force will make the difference between the success and failure of countries. it is against this background that we should examine the future course of economic cooperation in asia. there is no way that increased cooperation can be wished. it has to be embedded in the confluence of interests of all the participants and anchored in ground realities. intra - regional trade and investment among the asean + 3 countries has insulated this region from the vagaries, vicissitudes and volatility of the western economies. the correlation and dependence of the region ’ s economy on the rest of the world is weakening and as the share of intra - regional trade and investment flows further increase the link will become unimportant. south asia and central asia, on the other hand, have neither benefited from integration within their respective regions nor with the asean + 3 region. the market size, the increased purchasing power, the nature of economic reforms and pursuit of liberal and open door policies, a large pool of trained manpower and the emergence of india as the reservoir of scientific and technological manpower do create a win - win situation for all the participants in the asian cooperation dialogue. pakistan has completely turned its economy around during the last five years and is now experiencing 7 percent plus growth rate with a fast emerging middle class of 15 million people. similarly, the other countries of south asia are also making considerable progress economically. thus together the south asia and central asia offer an expanding and buoyant market and also provide source of supplies

. thank you very much.
yoshihisa morimoto : economic activity and prices in japan and monetary policy speech by mr yoshihisa morimoto, member of the policy board of the bank of japan, at a meeting with business leaders, wakayama, 20 february 2014. * * * i. recent economic and price developments a. japan ’ s economy and prices 1. current state of and outlook for japan ’ s economy i will begin by explaining the current state of, and outlook for, japan ’ s economy. economic activity had stopped weakening after the turn of 2013. the economy then returned to a moderate recovery path around mid - year as domestic demand remained resilient, mainly due to the effects of monetary easing and various economic measures. japan ’ s economy has since continued to recover moderately as domestic demand has remained firm, although exports have somewhat lacked momentum. business sentiment has been improving in a wide range of industries, including those of small firms, and in regional terms economic recovery has been spreading on a national basis. taking a closer look at developments in demand, exports showed relatively high growth in the first half of 2013 but have somewhat lacked momentum since the second half amid somewhat sluggish movements in some emerging and commodity - exporting economies. as for domestic demand, private consumption has remained resilient as a trend, with improvement in the employment and income situation, and a front - loaded increase in demand prior to the consumption tax hike has been observed mainly in durable consumer goods, as suggested particularly by the recent noticeable rise in new car sales. housing investment has been increasing. public investment has been trending upward, mainly reflecting the effects of various economic measures implemented thus far. business fixed investment has been picking up, as the aggregate supply of capital goods – a coincident indicator of machinery investment – has recently shown relatively high growth with improvement in corporate profits, and as machinery orders – a leading indicator of machinery investment – have been improving as a trend even in the manufacturing sector, albeit with fluctuations. taking these developments as a whole, the employment and income situation has been improving, supported by resilient domestic demand, indicating that a virtuous cycle among production, income, and spending is being maintained. as for the outlook, while japan ’ s economy will be affected by the front - loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to and after the consumption tax hike, it is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential, which is estimated to be around 0. 5 percent, as a trend

principle ). a well - integrated economic region is the key to a prosperous future. “ three nations, two currencies, one economic area ” - the title of the paper - not only describes the reality, it also maps out the way forward.