is likely to continue recovering on the back of increasing exports and accommodative monetary policy. it must be added, however, that in the labor market employment conditions have not improved greatly, with unemployment, for example, remaining at a high level. consequently, balance - sheet adjustments in the household sector – that is, the restoration of financial health, including the repayment of household debt – are unlikely to gather pace, so that the pace of recovery is likely to remain moderate. economic activity in the euro area as a whole has been recovering moderately, with some differences in growth by country : germany has performed strongly while other countries have lagged behind. although the pace has been slowing, exports and production have continued to increase, while domestic demand components, such as private consumption, have been rising from the previous quarter. for the present, the euro area is likely to continue recovering moderately. however, attention needs to be paid to the effects of fiscal bis central bankers ’ speeches consolidation, which from next year will start in earnest also in the major economies, and to volatility in financial markets due to concerns over the public and private debt problems in some of the peripheral countries. b. emerging and commodity - exporting economies although emerging and commodity - exporting economies are often grouped together, they are a diverse group. here, i will focus on the major east asian economies, since they are most relevant to japan. first, the chinese economy has continued to show high growth of around 10 percent. although the pace of increase in exports has been slowing due to a deceleration in overseas economies such as the united states, domestic demand, as indicated by retail sales and investment in fixed assets, has continued to show high growth. like china, south korea, taiwan, thailand, and other nies and asean countries also experienced continued economic growth driven by domestic demand, although inventory adjustments in it - related goods are casting a shadow on the outlook for exports. overall, it is very likely that emerging and commodity - exporting economies will continue to show relatively high growth due to robust domestic demand and capital inflows from overseas. the pace of growth of the chinese economy is likely to decelerate somewhat due, among other things, to government measures to restrain the increase in real estate transactions. however, given the continuing increase in private consumption, growth is nevertheless likely to remain relatively high. economic conditions in the nies and asean countries are expected to follow a recovery trend due to the inflow of overseas

. - - - - - - - - ( 2005 ). “ central bank communication and policy effectiveness ( pdf ), ” in proceedings of the greenspan era : lessons for the future, a symposium sponsored by the federal reserve bank of kansas city. kansas city, mo. : federal reserve bank of kansas city, pp. 399 – 474. yellen, janet ( 2012 ). “ revolution and evolution in central bank communications, ” speech delivered at the haas school of business, university of california, berkeley, november 13. bis central bankers ’ speeches