reforms. there is one thing we can learn from germany ’ s experience, though : reforms do pay off eventually. this is an important point to remember and it is confirmed by the current state of the euro area. let us take a closer look. the euro area : approaching the end of the crisis in the euro area, the end of the crisis is getting closer – slowly but steadily. most importantly, the euro area as a whole has finally emerged from recession. so far, we have seen four consecutive quarters of positive growth, and looking ahead, we expect growth to continue. latest projections by the ecb suggest that euro - area gdp will grow by 1. 0 % in 2014 and by 1. 7 % in 2015. and this recovery is not only driven by the “ core euro - area ” countries such as germany. some of the crisis - hit countries have also finally embarked on the path to recovery. it seems, then, that the efforts to implement structural reforms are indeed bearing fruit. competitiveness has improved in most peripheral countries. improving competitiveness in turn drives exports higher. all peripheral countries, except cyprus, are projected to see some export growth this year. these achievements are reflected in current accounts increasingly reverting to positive balances. and germany is part of this rebalancing equation. since 2007, germany ’ s current account surplus vis - a - vis the euro area has shrunk continuously from 4½ % of gdp to 2 % of gdp. as business investment in germany is projected to pick up in 2014 and 2015, this rebalancing should continue. the progress that these abstract figures reflect is also visible in more concrete events. for example, ireland, spain and portugal have exited their financial support programmes without any friction. all three countries recently returned to the sovereign bond markets at relatively low yields. at the same time, stock markets in these economies have been rising for some time now. these developments underscore the progress that some peripheral euro - area countries have made in adjusting their economies. however, despite these favourable developments, there is again no time for complacency. in many countries structural reforms are far from finalised, as a report by the eu parliament suggests. at the same time, public debt is still very high in many countries and has to come down. against this backdrop, the recent debate about loosening the rules of the stability and growth pact worries me. it seems that the experience from the crisis is already fading from collective memory

sector, and this will have an impact on their probabilities of default, value of debt and equity. these changes will then be mapped onto banks ’ capital positions, or corporate bond and equity portfolios held by other intermediaries, to determine the overall impact on the supply of funds to the economy. this is very ambitious but important work. directly linked to this topic is the question of how climate change - related risk will affect the underlying factors that guide our monetary policy. here, research is needed to get an idea of how the transmission channels can be influenced by climate change. so there ’ s more than enough work to be done, and this work is urgently needed and complex. we shouldn ’ t delay. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches