unchanged at 5 - 1 / 4 to 5 - 1 / 2 percent. in announcing that decision, the committee said it " does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. " 4 taking into account the effects of restrictive monetary policy, i expect gdp growth to slow to about 1 - 1 / 2 percent this year, and the unemployment rate to rise modestly, peaking at around 4 percent. i expect inflation to continue its return journey to 2 percent, although there will likely be bumps along the way, as we saw in the most recent consumer price index data. to be specific, i expect pce inflation to be around 2 to 2 - 1 / 4 percent this year and 2 percent next year. the risks to this forecast are two - sided. inflation may surprise on the upside, or consumer strength - a major driver of the robust growth we saw in 2023 - may fade more quickly than i anticipate. conclusion 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches price stability is the bedrock upon which our economic prosperity stands. while the economy has come a long way toward achieving better balance and reaching our 2 percent inflation goal, we are not there yet. i am committed to fully restoring price stability in the context of a strong economy and labor market. as we navigate the remainder of this journey, i will be focused on the data, the economic outlook, and the risks, in evaluating the appropriate path for monetary policy that best achieves our goals. or, to paraphrase the words of the astronaut alan shepard, we'll assess incoming data until it's clear all systems are go. 1 federal reserve bank of new york, global supply chain pressure index. 2 federal reserve bank of new york, multivariate core trend inflation. 3 federal reserve bank of new york, consumers more optimistic about their financial situation and credit access, february 12, 2024. 4 board of governors of the federal reserve system, federal reserve issues fomc statement, january 31, 2024. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

john c williams : there and back again remarks by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the long island association regional economic briefing, garden city, new york city, 28 february 2024. * * * as prepared for delivery introduction good afternoon, everyone. thank you for having me here today. i always enjoy meeting with business and community leaders in the federal reserve's second district. and it's a real treat to join you here at the cradle of aviation museum. it's a great reminder of long island's rich history in aeronautics and innovation. if only i had time to visit some of the space exhibits today. alas, maybe next time.... instead, in my remarks, i will focus on how the federal reserve is working to achieve our goals of maximum employment and price stability. i'll also discuss the significant progress we've seen in restoring balance to the economy and bringing inflation down to the federal open market committee's ( fomc's ) 2 percent longer - run goal. and i'll talk about what we still need to see for a full and sustained return to price stability. finally, i'll give my economic outlook. before i get into all of that, i need to provide the standard fed disclaimer that the views i express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the fomc or others in the federal reserve system. falling inflation, low unemployment in thinking about the state of our economy today, and what that means for the future, it's important to start from where we've been. as business leaders, you know all too well the impacts of the pandemic. in many ways, long island's economy mirrors new york city's. both were hit especially hard in 2020in fact, much harder than what we saw nationally. and in 2023, both reached an important milestone, returning to the number of jobs we had before the pandemic. last year was also a turning point for the u. s. economy. global supply chains, which were severely disrupted during the pandemic and early in the recovery, returned to normal. 1 demand came into better balance with supply. and the economy grew far faster than anyone expected a year ago, boosted by increases in the labor force and productivity. at the same time, the labor market remained strong, with the unemployment rate under 4 percent - a