as an answer to the easterlin paradox? ” journal of development economics, vol. 86 ( april ), pp. 22 – 42. for a survey of evidence on adaptability, see shane frederick and george loewenstein ( 1999 ), “ hedonic adaptation, ” in daniel kahneman, ed diener, and norbert schwarz, eds., well - being : the foundations of hedonic psychology ( new york : russell sage foundation ), pp. 302 – 29. see organisation for economic co - operation and development ( 2011 ), how ’ s life? measuring well - being ( washington : oecd publishing ). bis central bankers ’ speeches continued work on the measurement of economic well - being will likely lead to greater recognition by economists of the contributions of psychology – an area that has been explored by pioneers like 2002 nobel laureate daniel kahneman. one topic on the frontier of economics and psychology is the neurological basis of human decisions, including decisionmaking under risk and uncertainty, intertemporal choice, and social decisionmaking. 5 researchers are investigating behavioral tendencies in a variety of circumstances – for instance, by examining human responses to perceived inequality, losses, risk, and uncertainty ; the need for autonomy ; and the importance for well - being of social ties and community. for example, brain imaging research has documented differences in the brain regions that light up in response to losses and gains – a clear physical manifestation of the “ loss aversion ” documented in the earlier behavioral studies in economics and psychology. 6 evolutionary psychologists suggest that humans experienced evolutionary benefits from brain developments that included aversion to loss and risk, and from instincts for cooperation that helped strengthen communities. measurement of well - being is an important direction, but just one of many new directions for economic measurement being explored in the field generally and at this conference in particular. i am glad to see scholars and practitioners continuing to push the frontiers of economic measurement with a broad perspective and with open minds. as arthur conan doyle ’ s immortal character sherlock holmes aptly put it, “ it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. ” 7 as i said at the beginning, good economic analysis and policymaking depend on good measurement, and the work you are doing will accordingly yield significant benefits. i thank you for the opportunity to give these short remarks, and i wish you the best for a productive and stimulating conference. for example, see george loewenstein, scott rick, and jonathan d. cohen ( 2008

y % chg. fy 2023 + 2. 8 % fy 2024 + 2. 4 % fy 2025 + 1. 8 % - 1 fy13 notes : 1. figures are the cpi for all items less fresh food, excluding the effects of the consumption tax hikes. 2. the locations of, [UNK], and [UNK] in the chart indicate the figures for each policy board member's forecasts. the risk balance assessed by each policy board member is shown by the following shapes : indicates that a member assesses " upside and downside risks as being generally balanced, " [UNK] indicates that a member assesses " risks are skewed to the upside, " and [UNK] indicates that a member assesses " risks are skewed to the downside. " the dotted lines show the medians of the policy board members'forecasts presented in the january 2024 outlook report. sources : ministry of internal affairs and communications ; bank of japan. i think that this year's wage growth is highly likely to surpass the previous year's substantial growth. the provisional aggregate results of the annual spring labor - management wage negotiations this year, which were released in late march, reveal that the wage growth rate is significantly higher than the results for the previous year, including among small and medium - sized firms ( chart 6 ). likewise, a survey targeting small and medium - sized firms shows that the number of firms that are positive about raising wages has been increasing further. in addition, anecdotal information from firms - - which is gathered through the bank's head office and branches - - suggests that a wider range of firms have actually been raising wages. i think that this is mainly because firms are feeling the need to retain and recruit human resources in response to labor shortages. of course, it is also true that some firms claim that they do not have the resources for wage hikes or that it is difficult to pass on wage hikes to prices. however, taking into account recent data and anecdotal information, as well as the change in firms'price - and wage - setting behavior and ongoing labor shortages that i talked about earlier, i believe that there is a good chance of the virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to operate. chart 6 : developments in wage revisions results of the annual spring labor - management wage negotiations survey on plans for wage increases for next fiscal year ( small and medium - sized firms ) 6 y / y