for january 2023 ]. taking decisive action to bring inflation back to target – from the monetary and national government fronts as a result, we have increased the policy rate by [ a cumulative ] 425 bps [ as of march 2023 ]. we sold about 7. 0 percent of our forex ( foreign exchange ) reserves [ from end - 2021 to end - 2022 ] because the peso was threatening to cross what? 60 [ against the dollar ]. in this one, we are not that different from asian central banks. the typical asian central bank, more or less, sold about that proportion of their forex reserves. thankfully, of course, the government also relaxed import restrictions on key food items. 2 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches easing inflation pressures point to inflation correcting to target by year - end so, we are now beginning to see great improvements in the inflation picture. for instance, if you look at the last four months [ of 2023 ], [ month - on - month seasonally adjusted inflation for ] february was 0. 3 percent, march was zero, april was zero, and may was 0. 3 percent. so much so [ was the improvement in inflation ] that we now think that what we have done - - aggressive monetary tightening, policy rate increases - - has worked. at the same time, whatever we did as a response to covid was also working because the economy was actually bouncing back very quickly when the restrictions on mobility were lifted. [ gdp growth hit ] 7. 6 percent last year. our forecast this year is [ that the economy will grow by ] another 6. 0 percent. we think that inflation is now on what we call on a target - consistent path. 2023 inflation will average 5. 5 percent despite the fact that we started [ the year ] with 8. 0 percent [ inflation in january ]. we expect [ inflation for ] the last three months of this year to be within target. next year, we expect inflation to average about 2. 8 percent. that is right there at the midpoint of our target. of course, a lot of new shocks could happen that could prove that forecast wrong. global developments pushing and pulling philippine inflation below or above target nonetheless, this translates to 18 consecutive months of inflation being above target [ from april 2022 to september 2023 ]. 2 as central banks, we know that whatever you do, there are many things that are beyond your control and you are responding to

felipe m medalla : navigating through the headwinds - the way ahead for central banks opening remarks by mr felipe m medalla, governor of bangko sentral ng pilipinas ( bsp, the central bank of the philippines ), for 3rd bsp international research fair, manila, 13 june 2023. * * * to our guests, especially guests from abroad, colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the 3rd bsp international research fair. i am glad to see friends and familiar faces today. this is the first time that we are holding this research fair in person after virtual fairs in 2021 and 2022. over the next two conference days, i hope you take home valuable lessons but also find the time to reconnect with old friends and make new connections. now, this year's theme is timely, " navigating through the headwinds : the way ahead for central banks. " as we make our way out of the pandemic, how can central banks contribute to the difficult project of rebuilding? the importance of central bank - run research academies in contributing to economic and financial body of knowledge as a long - time student of economics, i have always been disappointed in both macroeconomic courses and monetary economics courses because the [ section discussing ] banks inside them are all black boxes. i have always thought that research done in central banks could contribute a lot to [ a better ] understanding [ of ] the macroeconomy by putting the banks front and center of the model. the reason, of course, is a lot of data on banks that we have are confidential. if you are working inside the central bank, you can go to jail for violating confidentiality [ rules ]. you are allowed to see the data [ on banks but ] when your [ research ] paper comes out, nothing confidential [ about the banks ] is disclosed. but when you are writing the paper, all of that confidential stuff would have guided the paper. that is one reason we wanted to strengthen our research academy. the other reason is the research academy will also work closely with universities. i am so glad to see that this is exactly what is happening. we have [ graduate - level ] papers from up, la salle, ateneo and even undergraduate papers, which i think is very good for us in the long run. all i want to say is that i think, a strong research academy or even a stronger one in the future will be good for