never be. but our work to improve climate disclosures, scenario analysis, and risk management, could help unlock such assessments. macroeconomy beyond the financial system, achieving economy - wide net - zero emissions will require greening the way we heat our buildings, manufacture industrial goods like steel and cement, generate electricity and produce food. this could prove to be an opportunity for the economy to regenerate ageing capital and raise productivity. analysis done by the network for greening the financial system ( ngfs ) and national institute for economic and social research by 2050 suggests that such an orderly transition could lead to some increase in global gdp, and lower unemployment relative to prior trends. these positive effects should be larger in countries like the uk that are net importers of energy. however, as i mentioned earlier, much of that rests on how the transition proceeds. the lesson from previous episodes of structural change is that they never involve a frictionless re - allocation of capital. and a disorderly transition, where more severe policies are introduced later in the horizon to compensate, could result in both lower growth and higher inflation from rising energy and materials costs in the economy. in either case, the economic impacts from such transition scenarios over the medium term will likely be much lower than the growing challenges from physical risks. under current climate policies, which are insufficient to reach net - zero emissions, analysis from the ngfs scenarios suggest that up to 13 % of global gdp would be at risk by 2050, even before accounting for the potential consequences of severe weather events. monetary policy these risks to the economic outlook make climate change and the transition to a net - zero economy also relevant factors for the conduct of monetary policy. the typical policy horizon for monetary policy is two to three years, and so many of the effects of climate change ( particularly tipping points ) will manifest beyond that timeframe. but the effects of climate change matter for monetary policy because structural shifts in the supply side of the economy can affect not only future point - in - time macroeconomic variables, but also the expected natural rate of interest ( r * ) and the natural rate of unemployment ( u * ). the physical and transition risks from climate change are relevant to these issues, although the economic modelling and research to estimate the relative size of these effects has only started to emerge in recent years. to take one example of the complexities involved in making such an assessment, the natural rate of interest might face both downward pressure from expectations of severe weather events

l wilson kamit : difficulties, risks and opportunities for papua new guinea address by mr l wilson kamit, cbe, governor of the bank of papua new guinea, to the fifth annual report meeting of papua new guinea sustainable development program limited, port moresby, 25 may 2007. * * * “ the chairman of pngsdp prof. ross garnaut, members of the board, chief executive officer mr robert igara and the staff, chief secretary ambassador isaac lupari, department heads, members of the diplomatic corps representatives of the private sector, ladies and gentlemen. i thank you for inviting me to the 5th annual report meeting of png sustainable development program limited. ” there are many reasons potential investors give for not investing in papua new guinea. lack of infrastructure, scarcity of skilled labour, high cost and unreliable utilities, small urban centres result in fragmented markets, law and order problems and the non accommodating land tenure system are the causes given by those familiar with the present state of affairs in papua new guinea. as you all know papua new guinea is a very old nation but a new country. we can boast about having one of the most diversified and rich ecological systems in the world in flora and fauna. five large islands with several hundred small ones of unspoiled white beaches, outstanding sceneries of high mountains, fast flowing rivers, swamps and thousands of kilometers of waterways. we have very rich, highly diversified cultures and traditions, with more than 800 languages of which more than 200 are advanced to a stage that the bible can be translated into. there are huge tracks of arable land and tropical forests, very substantive marine resources in the 200 mile fishing zone, the most known resource is tuna but there are many other smaller ones. last but not least an abundance of mineral resources of gold, copper, nickel, oil and gas which have already been discovered, and exploration for others is on the rise. i know that there are difficulties and risks as stated in the opening paragraph of my address. now i will state the opportunities. the mining and petroleum industries are attracting many investors from all over the world. there are new substantive entrants such as the state owned chinese mining company at ramu nickel, barrick that took over the porgera gold mine from placer, and many companies investing large sums in exploration and others that have submitted exploration applications. there are undersea explorations for minerals ( gold ) with positive results. the gas developments are moving into