##reserve. gov / regreform / discount - window. htm. — — — ( 2023 ). “ bank term funding program, ” webpage, march 16, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / bank - term - funding - program. htm. campbell, john y., and john h. cochrane ( 1999 ). “ by force of habit : a consumptionbased explanation of aggregate stock market behavior, ” journal of political economy, vol. 107 ( april ), pp. 205 – 51. carlson, mark, and jonathan d. rose ( 2017 ). “ stigma and the discount window, ” feds notes. washington : board of governors of the federal reserve system, december 19, https : / / www. federalreserve. gov / econres / notes / feds - notes / stigmaand - the - discount - window - 20171219. html. - 17 federal reserve bank of new york ( 2023 ). “ faqs : reverse repurchase agreement operations, ” webpage, february 22, https : / / www. newyorkfed. org / markets / rrp _ faq. html. gertler, mark, and peter karadi ( 2015 ). “ monetary policy surprises, credit costs, and economic activity, ” american economic journal : macroeconomics, vol. 7 ( january ), pp. 44 – 76. hanson, samuel g., and jeremy c. stein ( 2015 ). “ monetary policy and long - term real rates, ” journal of financial economics, vol. 115 ( march ), pp. 429 – 48. ihrig, jane, and scott wolla ( 2022a ). interview by adrian ma and darian woods, “ ap macro gets a makeover, ” the indicator from planet money, npr, august 15, https : / / www. npr. org / transcripts / 1117599828. ihrig, jane, and scott wolla ( 2022b ). “ let ’ s close the gap : updating the textbook treatment of monetary policy, ” journal of economic education, https : / / doi. org / 10. 1080 / 00220485. 2022. 2075509. ihrig, jane, zeynep senyuz, and gretchen c. weinbach ( 2020 ). “

. indeed, the number of small, fuel - efficient japanese cars that were imported into u. s. markets rose throughout the 1970s as the price of oil moved higher. moreover, at that time, prices were expected to go still higher. for example, the u. s. department of energy in 1979 had projections showing real oil prices reaching nearly $ 60 per barrel by 1995 - - the equivalent of more than $ 120 in today's prices. the failure of oil prices to rise as projected in the late 1970s is a testament to the power of markets and the technologies they foster. today, the average price of crude oil, despite its recent surge, is still in real terms below the price peak of february 1981. moreover, since oil use, as i noted, is only two - thirds as important an input into world gdp as it was three decades ago, the effect of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove significantly less consequential to economic growth and inflation than the surge in the 1970s. the petroleum industry's early years of hit - or - miss exploration and development of oil and gas has given way to a more systematic, high - tech approach. the dramatic changes in technology in recent years have made existing oil and natural gas reserves stretch further while keeping energy costs lower than they otherwise would have been. seismic imaging and advanced drilling techniques are facilitating the discovery of promising new reservoirs and are enabling the continued development of mature fields. accordingly, one might expect that the cost of developing new fields and, hence, the long - term price of new oil and gas would have declined. and, indeed, these costs have declined, though less than they might otherwise have done. much of the innovation in oil development outside opec, for example, has been directed at overcoming an increasingly inhospitable and costly exploratory environment, the consequence of more than a century of draining the more immediately accessible sources of crude oil. 2 / 4 still, consistent with declining long - term marginal costs of extraction, distant futures prices for crude oil moved lower, on net, during the 1990s. the most - distant futures prices fell from a bit more than $ 20 per barrel before the first gulf war to less than $ 18 a barrel on average in 1999. such long - term price stability has eroded noticeably over the past five years. between 1991 and 2000, although spot prices ranged between $ 11 and $ 35 per barrel, distant futures exhibited little variation. since then