development of niigata prefecture's economy in the post - pandemic era. thank you very much for your attention. japan's economy and monetary policy speech at a meeting with local leaders in niigata ( via webcast ) july 21, 2021 amamiya masayoshi deputy governor of the bank of japan introduction i. developments in economic activity and prices ii. the bank's conduct of monetary policy iii. the bank's efforts on climate change conclusion chart 1 i. developments in economic activity and prices global growth rate ( imf forecasts in the world economic outlook ) y / y % chg. cy 2021 : + 6. 0 % cy 2022 : + 4. 4 % cy 2019 : + 2. 8 % average from 1980 through 2019 : + 3. 5 % - 1 - 2 cy 2020 : - 3. 3 % - 3 - 4 imf forecasts ( april 2021 weo ) - 5 - 6 cy 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 source : imf. chart 2 i. developments in economic activity and prices corporate sector business conditions di ( tankan ) exports and production s. a., cy 2015 = 100 business fixed investment ( tankan ) 40 di ( " favorable " - " unfavorable " ), % points y / y % chg. actual planned investment in current fiscal year as of the june survey of each year - 20 - 40 - 5 real exports industrial production cy 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 - 60 all industries - 80 accommodations, eating & drinking services services for individuals - 100 cy 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 - 10 - 15 - 20 fy 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 note : in the right - hand chart, figures include software and r & d investments and exclude land purchasing expenses. r & d investment is not included before the march 2017 survey. the figures are for all industries and enterprises including financial institutions. sources : ministry of finance ; ministry of economy, trade and industry ; bank of japan. chart 3 i. developments in economic activity and prices household sector private consumption employment and income situation employee income unemployment rate 120 s. a., cy 2015 = 100 s. a., % y / y % chg. services goods - 2 - 4 nominal real - 6 jan. jul. july jan. jul. july cy 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 jan

, cost pressures have been easing, despite remaining at high levels from a historical perspective. the reestablishment of supply chains, the normalization of global transportation costs, the decline in external prices and the appreciation of the peso relative to the end of 2022 stand out ( figure 3 ). the currency ’ s performance responds to a reduction in local uncertainty, whose pass - through to prices is consolidated to the extent that it stabilizes around the closing values of our last report. in any case, as i mentioned, both total and core inflation are still high and their effects remain in several areas of our economy. in this context, more limited cost pressures are observed in companies, as reported by the survey of price determinants and expectations ( edep ). there is also a trend toward a normal frequency of upward adjustments in the prices of some goods included in a microdata analysis, as shown in one of the boxes in this report. as for activity and demand, in recent months their evolution has been in line with the forecasts in the march report. according to national accounts data for the first quarter, seasonally adjusted, domestic demand fell by 1. 5 % with respect to the previous quarter, with a drop of 8. 0 % in an annual comparison. total gdp and non - mining gdp grew in their seasonally adjusted series, with increases of 0. 8 % and 1. 2 %, respectively. this was mainly due to a transitory accounting effect in the transportation sector, which we had already mentioned in the march report. in annual variation, the two showed a drop of 0. 6 % ( figure 4 ). by sectors, personal services, restaurants & hotels, and fishery performed well during the first quarter. in contrast, commerce has continued to adjust and construction continues to underperform. the largest downward difference was recorded in the mining sector. on the expenditure side, the main developments were concentrated in consumption. seasonally adjusted, private consumption fell 2. 5 % quarter - on - quarter ( q / q ), a sharper than anticipated fall, mainly explained by the 18. 8 % q / q decline in durable consumption. regular consumption continues on a downward trend in goods and an upward trend in services. government consumption, on the other hand, grew more than we projected ( figure 5 ). in any case, this evolution of private consumption is considered a preview of the decline expected during this year. this is in line with high - frequency information,