table - achieving - diversity - with - no - excusesc0719c60564b #. ehll2i76w. dennison t and s ogilvie ( 2014 ), ‘ does the european marriage pattern explain economic growth? ’, the journal of economic history, 74 ( 3 ), pp 651 – 692. foreman - peck j ( 2011 ), ‘ the western european marriage pattern and economic development ’, explorations in economic history, 48 ( 2 ), pp 292 – 309. ginther dk and s kahn ( 2004 ), ‘ women in economics : moving up or falling off the academic career ladder? ’, journal of economic perspectives, 18 ( 3 ), pp 193 – 214. ginther dk and s kahn ( 2015 ), ‘ women ’ s careers in academic social science : progress, pitfalls, and plateaus ', boston university, january, unpublished manuscript. available at sites. bu. edu / shulamitkahn / files / 2015 / 01 / gintherkahn - socsci - chapter. pdf. goldin c ( 2016 ), ‘ a pollution theory of discrimination : male and female differences in occupations and earnings ’, human capital in history : the american record, university of chicago press, chicago, pp 313 – 348. hajnal j ( 1965 ), ‘ european marriage pattern in historical perspective ’, in d glass and dec eversley ( eds ), population in history, arnold, london. 13 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches sarsons h ( 2016 ), ‘ gender differences in recognition for group work ’, working paper, unpublished manuscript. available at scholar. harvard. edu / files / sarsons / files / groupwork. pdf. 1 the pattern of marriage and child - bearing occurring mainly when people are in their late 20s is known as the ‘ western european marriage pattern ’ and has been established for several centuries in european data ( hajnal 1965 ). there is some suggestion that the establishment of this pattern was instrumental in subsequent economic development ( foreman - peck 2011 ), although this claim is contested ( dennison and ogilvie 2014 ). if the claim is true, though, one is tempted to speculate whether the post - war decline in average ages of marriage and child - bearing had something to do with the decline in productivity growth observed in the 1970s. 2 a useful recent contribution to this literature is goldin ( 2016 ). 3

the affected group will fall. that is not what happened to women in the 1970s. as the graph above shows, female employment increased, participation increased, and a wider range of occupations opened to women. that outcome should be seen in the context of the substantial increase in educational attainment for both males and females in the post - war period ( graph 4 ). much of that increase had already occurred before the equal pay decisions. following those decisions, the gap between the sexes on this measure ( which was never very large ) narrowed noticeably, perhaps partly because equal pay increased the payoff to female education. ( free university education probably helped as well. ) in fact it is now the case that women are more likely than men to have a tertiary education ( graph 5 ). 4 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches 5 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches the conclusion i draw from this is that, prior to those equal pay decisions, women were not being paid their marginal product. but employers did not respond to this cost differential by substituting male workers with cheaper female workers. perhaps that was partly because of a ( false ) social presumption that female workers were less skilled. occupational segregation also helps prevent substitution between different groups, in this case between the sexes. lest you think that this is all old history and irrelevant to the present day, it is worth recalling that there are women who were in the workforce at the time of the equal pay decisions who are still in the workforce today or only recently retired ; the second equal pay decision happened in my lifetime. it ’ s also important because the dynamics of these large social changes are quite slow moving. they take effect at a generational frequency. to take one example, participation rates of older workers – both male and female – have risen noticeably over the past decade or so ( graph 6 ). part of this might be a response to increased employment opportunities in specific fields during the mining investment boom. and part of it might have been a response to rising pension ages and concerns that retirement savings might not be adequate. but for older women, some of the shift could also be a cohort effect. the generations of women with higher labour market participation rates than their predecessors were also more likely to remain in the labour force as 6 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches they approached and passed conventional retirement ages. occupational segregation is another feature of the labour market that shifts only slowly. decisions made as teenagers affect occupational choices over one ’ s entire career. that ’ s still