end of 2014 actually increased somewhat. see the responses to question 10 on the april survey and question 8 on the july survey ; the survey results are available on the federal reserve bank of new york ’ s website. see john geanakoplos ( 2009 ), “ the leverage cycle, ” in daron acemoglu, kenneth rogoff, and michael woodford, eds., nber macroeconomics annual 2009 ( chicago : university of chicago press ), pp. 1 – 65. bis central bankers ’ speeches at - risk constraints, low volatility is likely to induce them to take on more leverage. if volatility rises sharply in the wake of an announcement, this increase will tend to exacerbate the unwind effect. to be clear, i am not saying that monetary policy communications should have been different during this period. rather, the point is that in some circumstances there are very real limits to what even the most careful and deliberate communications strategy can do to temper market volatility. this is just the nature of the beast when dealing with speculative markets, and to suggest otherwise – to suggest that, say, “ good communication ” alone can engineer a completely smooth exit from a period of extraordinary policy accommodation – is to create an unrealistic expectation. in this spirit, i think the fomc may face a similar communications challenge as the nature of the forward guidance for the path of short - term interest rates evolves over the next couple of years. the 6. 5 percent unemployment threshold that we had until recently was not only quantitative in nature, but it also represented a relatively firm commitment on the part of the committee. while this kind of commitment was entirely appropriate at the zero lower bound, as policy eventually normalizes, guidance will necessarily take a different form ; it will be both more qualitative as well as less deterministic. so, for example, when i fill in my “ dot ” for 2016 in the survey of economic projections, i think of myself as writing down not a commitment for where the federal funds rate will be at that time, but only my best forecast, and one that is highly uncertain at that. chair yellen made a similar point in her march press conference : more generally, you know, the end of 2016 is a long way out. monetary policy will be geared to evolving conditions in the economy, and the public does need to understand that as those views evolve, the committee ’ s views on policy will

always bad and not always good. " i would have to agree that gentrification is complicated and requires thorough thought and planning as neighborhood revitalization strategies are developed. many strategies are being developed at the local level to address the increasing need for affordable housing ; these strategies include housing trust funds, private activity bonds, and community land trusts, to name just a few. the federal reserve bank of richmond is currently studying patterns of home price changes and gentrification in neighborhoods here in washington, d. c. the work is intended to assist city governments, community development corporations, and funders in anticipating and mitigating the effects of gentrification on lower - income residents. as difficult as the challenges seem, i am confident that if policymakers, researchers, and public and private community development practitioners continue to work together, they will be able to balance new investments with strategies to encourage affordable housing options for sustainable and equitable community development. in the meantime, my colleagues at the board of governors and i are committed to sustaining a noninflationary economic expansion and a healthy financial system, which should create a solid foundation for the development of new business opportunities. of course, although a strong economy and vibrant capital markets are necessary to establish a solid market - based foundation for economic development, they are not sufficient. successful community development projects require vision, commitment, tough choices, and hard work. indeed, these are the qualities that each of the projects honored here tonight share. i am pleased to be able to give my personal congratulations to tonight ’ s honorees and to social compact for leading the way in the effort to uncover the market potential of inner - city neighborhoods through innovation, risk taking, and the sharing of results.