##people, set out to meet anthony keith, the chairperson of barclays bank in london. their clarity of vision and commercially driven strategy led barclays to not only invest in the bank, but also provide training to its executive and staff. with such a powerful endorsement, they were able to raise the rest of the money from individuals and businesses from across the black community. they secured the r1 million needed to apply for a banking licence. but the officials at the sarb did not make it easy for the first black - only consortium seeking to open a bank. even with the backing from barclays, they were sent from pillar to post in what can only be described as efforts to block this application. again, there was no giving up on their part. and so, whatever the sarb requested, they provided, until finally, and after the requirements were met, the banking licence was issued in 1975. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches the story of african bank has been one of highs and lows. he told me about their daily battles to manage customers, creditors, the regulator, suppliers, and their investors. he was at pains sharing the story about when the bank was placed into custodianship of then trust bank because they had broken exchange control rules. the bank had new shareholders and nafcoc's influence had diminished significantly. towards the end of his tenure as chairperson of the bank, he was no longer happy with the direction the institution was heading into, moving away from savings and focusing mostly on lending. it was his wish to claim the bank back and move it back towards its founding vision – to serve and provide financial services to the marginalised and underserved. it was for this reason that i opened a bank account with african bank in plein street, johannesburg, in the early 80s. it was an institution that i could relate to as a black south african, an institution that spoke to me in a manner that was respectful – it spoke to me, not about me. it was an institution i was proud to keep my savings at. knowing what i know now about banking, especially if you have a savings account, i would not have opened that account. they were distributing marketing pamphlets in hoek street, incentivising customers to keep a minimum of r250 in their savings book for 12 months. at the end of 12 months they would add, i think, r50 to your balance. i took the bait, and it paid

base. there is still some risk of resurgence in volatility and risk - aversion in global financial markets, depending on sentiments around the evolution of the pandemic and perceptions around the efficacy of policy interventions. this would have significant implications for capital flows to emerging markets, and in turn their currencies and inflation outlook. in our november monetary policy committee ( mpc ) meeting, we assessed the overall risks to the growth outlook as balanced, but acknowledge this as a tentative assessment, which is open to adjustment given the wide range of shocks hitting the economy, uncertainties involving the effectiveness of policy, and the sensitivity of sentiment to news flow. we revised our 2020 growth forecast marginally upwards from a contraction of 8. 2 % projected at our september meeting to a contraction of 8 % on the assumption of a stronger recovery in the third quarter of this year. we further expect the economy to grow by 3. 5 % and 2. 4 % in 2021 and 2022 respectively. our quarterly projection model ( qpm ) also points to a large output gap that will only narrow over the remainder of the forecast period but still remain negative in 2022. the main drag on medium - term growth is that we expect negative growth in investment this year and next year in both the public and the private sector. admittedly, this is only a forecast, but if it holds, it will have profound implications for the future productive potential of our economy. structural issues, such as electricity supply challenges and a constrained fiscal environment, also remain key obstacles to the economic recovery in the medium term. the overall risks to the inflation outlook at this time appear to be to the downside in the near term and balanced over the medium term. one of the key factors explaining the projected downward movement in core inflation is the lower increase in medical insurance prices in 2021. however, we noted that evidence points to this reduction as temporary and likely to reverse in 2022. some internal work done by our economic research department shows that medical schemes built up significant cash surpluses under lockdown, as members were avoiding hospitals and other medical facilities except for emergency treatments. to reduce these surpluses, most medical schemes are implementing smaller price increases for 2021. our engagements with medical schemes suggest larger increases will resume in 2022, once the excess reserves from the lockdown are depleted. rentals and owner - occupied rentals have also been on a downward trend, although this has been factored into our forecast. furthermore, our projections of unit