claudia buch : evidence - based policy – potentials, infrastructures and the role of international organizations speech by prof claudia buch, vice - president of the deutsche bundesbank, at the school of international studies ( zis ), dresden, 24 may 2019. * * * the paper has been prepared for the symposium on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the studies of international relations at the university of dresden. it has benefited greatly from comments and inputs by edgar vogel and regina riphahn. all errors and inconsistencies are my own. 1 the role of evidence - based policy policy decisions in today ’ s world have to be taken in a dichotomous state between good evidence and public distrust in expert opinion. on the one hand, the conditions for evidence - based policy have seen excellent progress. availability of and access to high - quality data have improved, academic research provides a range of methodologies to conduct causal impact assessments, academic curricula incorporate these methods, and administrations are staffed with highly qualified personnel. overall, trust in scientists appears to be strong. surveys for the us show that trust in scientists has been at a fairly high and stable level since the 1970s1. surveys for the us and the uk reveal areas where the public trusts scientific experts more than the government2. most importantly, trust is not only inspired by the perceived quality of policy outcomes : rather, citizens want a transparent and objective decision - making process. 3 on the other hand, trust in governments and political institutions in particular seems to have eroded since the global financial crisis. many public policy debates are characterized by skepticism via - a - vis experts and expert knowledge. 4 populism is on the rise in many countries. 83 % of the respondents to a eurobarometer poll see “ fake news ” and online disinformation as a threat to democracy. 5 against this background, evidence - based policy is an undogmatic concept. rather than taking a normative approach to policy, it adopts a positive perspective : defining policy objectives remains within the realm of the democratic policy process. but, given the policy objectives, better evidence can contribute to selecting the right policy instruments, assessing the impact of these instruments, and potentially, revising them. the potential benefits of applying good analysis to problems facing today ’ s societies are in fact large. historically, the interaction between scientific knowledge, policy - making, and entrepreneurial activity catalysed by the enlightenment has brought significant improvements in human well -

for improving the dialogue between researchers and policymakers is that each side should learn to “ speak the language ” of the other side, at least to some extent. this requires clear communication of research results and methods, and the translation of high - level policy objectives into measurable indicators. data infrastructures : evaluations require good data, but data infrastructures can be costly. the costs of acquiring data can be minimized if data are collected early on and, ideally, if data needs are considered when drafting new legislation. notwithstanding the key importance of ensuring strict data confidentiality, broad use of the available data will help to improve the quality of evaluations. managing incentives : ultimately, policy evaluations will be used routinely only if the right incentives for conducting them are in place. administrations can be incentivized to conduct 5 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches evaluations through institutional structures which are conducive to evaluations and legal mandates to evaluate policies. the incentives of researchers will depend, ultimately, on the research community ’ s criteria for assessing the quality of academic work. giving researchers access to data can be an incentive to cooperate. but the academic community can do more : rewarding replication studies can provide additional incentives to cooperate. bringing more and better evidence into political decisions is beneficial to society. to make progress, we need commitment from and an open and continuous dialogue with all stakeholders. the more we can build on available infrastructures, the lower the costs of evaluations will be, and the better we can learn from past experience. good policy design and good institutions may, ultimately, increase transparency and accountability, thus countering skepticism about “ expert ” projects. 1 funk, cary ( 2017 ), “ real numbers : mixed messages about public trust in science issues in science and technology ”, volume xxxiv issue 1, fall 2017. 2 osman, magda, norman fenton, toby pilditch, david lagnado, and martin neil ( 2018 ), “ who do we trust on social policy interventions ”, basic and applied social psychology, vol 40 ( 5 ), p. 249 – 268. 3 oecd ( 2017 ), “ trust and public policy : how better governance can help rebuild public trust ”, oecd public governance reviews, oecd publishing, march 2017. 4 quoting conservative mp michael gove ahead of the brexit - referendum : “ the people of this country have had enough of experts ”. 5 ec. europa. eu / digital