2015 in the june tankan, with corporate profits increasing to a historical high. in the household sector, despite the effects of irregular weather, private consumption has been resilient, reflecting steady improvement in the employment and income situation, as seen in, for example, the continued improvement in the active job openings - to - applicants ratio. in addition, housing investment has started to pick up. given these developments, a virtuous cycle from income to spending is expected to continue operating steadily in both the corporate and household sectors. with regard to prices, the year - on - year rate of increase in the consumer price index ( cpi ) for all items less fresh food had slowed toward the end of fiscal 2014, due in part to the effects of low crude oil prices. excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, the rate has been about 0 percent recently. 2. outlook japan ’ s economy is expected to continue recovering moderately. on the price front, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices. nevertheless, as the underlying trend in prices steadily rises and the effects of the decline in crude oil prices dissipate, the rate is likely to accelerate toward 2 percent – the price stability target. risks to the outlook are those that primarily stem from overseas factors. specifically, these include developments in emerging and commodity - exporting economies, the prospects regarding the debt problem and the momentum of economic activity and prices in europe, and the pace of recovery in the u. s. economy. the bank compiles and releases the policy board members ’ forecasts for economic activity and prices on a quarterly basis. looking at the medians of the members ’ forecasts released in july 2015, the real gdp growth rate is projected to be 1. 7 percent for fiscal 2015, 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2016, and 0. 2 percent for fiscal 2017. the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less fresh food ), excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hikes, is projected to be 0. 7 percent for fiscal 2015, 1. 9 percent for fiscal 2016, and 1. 8 percent for fiscal 2017. the bank projects that the timing of the rate reaching around 2 percent will be around the first half of fiscal 2016, assuming that crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent level. bis central bankers ’ speeches 3.

yen, respectively. 2. the loan support program and other measures prior to the introduction of qqe, the bank established – on its balance sheet – the loan support program, with the aim of making the effect of monetary easing permeate the entire bis central bankers ’ speeches economy. through this program, it has been providing support for private financial institutions ’ efforts to strengthen the foundations for economic growth and to increase their lending. meanwhile, the bank has also been conducting the funds - supplying operation to support financial institutions in disaster areas affected by the great east japan earthquake. since the establishment in 2010 of the measure that later constituted the loan support program, the bank has been enhancing the program by, for example, increasing the maximum amount outstanding of its fund provisioning and extending the application period of the program. as a result, the amount outstanding of loan disbursement under the program has reached about 29 trillion yen as of mid - july 2015. through these efforts, the bank will further promote financial institutions ’ lending, as well as stimulate firms ’ and households ’ demand for credit and continue to support the efforts of financial institutions in disaster areas toward rebuilding. b. assessment of the underlying trend in prices i will now move on to discussing price developments – a crucial factor in making the bank ’ s policy decisions – with a particular focus on how to assess the underlying trend in prices in an environment where fluctuations in energy prices observed since 2014 have been exerting a substantial influence on overall prices. when assessing the underlying trend in prices, i consider it appropriate to also examine for the time being the cpi ( all items less energy ), given that price fluctuations of energy items since 2014 have been exerting a significant effect on the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi for all items. there is a view that it is necessary to pay attention to a similar index, the year - on - year rate of increase in the cpi ( all items less food and energy ). however, in japan, food expenditures account for a quarter of total household expenditures, which is quite high among advanced economies. therefore, i personally consider it inappropriate to examine the price index that excludes food, considering the extent to which food expenditures affect households. in assessing the underlying trend in prices, i also consider it necessary to take note of the characteristics of the components of the cpi basket in japan. for example, prices of public services and rent in japan are sticky by nature, and less susceptible to developments in economic