of a temporary intensification of volatility. as regards disinflationary risks, we believe that they have a weaker effect and are primarily associated with supply - side factors. as i have already said, our forecast assumes that some disinflationary factors will materialise next year. these include a partial restoration of production and logistics chains, an expansion of food supply in global markets, and generally a certain adjustment of prices in global commodity markets down from the currently high levels. if this adjustment is more significant, the disinflationary effect will be stronger than predicted in the baseline scenario. i will now speak about our future decisions. the board of directors believes that we have apparently not yet tightened monetary conditions to the extent needed to bring inflation back to the target next year. therefore, we hold open the prospect of a further key rate increase at the upcoming meetings. nonetheless, the situation might change. at the next meeting, we will consider how our today ’ s and earlier decisions, given the time lags, influence monetary conditions, among other factors. we will take into account that, even with the key rate unchanged, monetary conditions might toughen if inflation and inflation expectations go down. at our core meeting in february, we will adjust the range of the key rate forecast and the medium - term forecast in general. 3 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches thank you for attention. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches

emphasise that both fiscal and monetary policies play a countercyclical role, that is, they address the issue of overcoming the downturn and bringing the economy back to its potential. this is certainly a top - priority task in the current situation, yet it is critical to remember what is absolutely essential for sustainable long - term development and an increase in economic potential, labour productivity and, accordingly, households ’ incomes. to tackle this task, we need incentives to increase private investments and develop private initiatives and should enhance the flexibility of the labour market, which primarily depends on the business climate and other structural factors. the level of our economic potential after the pandemic and how quickly the economy will regain it are crucial for both our macroeconomic forecast and monetary policy. as you know, this uncertainty of supply - and demand - side factors is a key point in our forecast scenarios. they are presented in the draft monetary policy guidelines for 2021 – 2023 published last week. we are going to update our forecast estimates following the board of directors ’ meeting scheduled for october. yet, our approaches to the set of scenarios and key forecast assumptions in the scenarios will remain unchanged. winding up, i would like to make my traditional comments on monetary policy prospects. the main path of the monetary policy easing has already been passed — since june 2019, the key rate has decreased by 350 basis points, including by 200 basis points this year, to reach its record low. we still see some room for reducing the key rate, but we will consider the necessity to use this room and the time when this should be done. as shown in the monetary policy guidelines, both under the baseline and alternative scenarios, the bank of russia will be capable to tackle the task of maintaining price stability, that is, keeping inflation at our target close to 4 %. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches