4. 2 % over the year. the third factor we were taking into account when making our today ’ s decision is that monetary conditions remain accommodative. while nominal interest rates on loans and deposits changed only slightly, real price conditions were eased. banks also continued to ease non - price lending conditions in a range of segments. yields on federal government bonds increased somewhat amid the growth of long - term interest rates in global financial markets. owing to the monetary policy pursued and the government ’ s anti - crisis support measures, the increase in the banking system ’ s claims on companies accelerated to 10. 2 % last year, which is more than in 2019. the growth rate of claims on households equalled 12. 9 %. the economy and borrowers obtained the funds they needed to more smoothly overcome the acute phase of the crisis and resume development. in 2021, monetary conditions will remain accommodative, further promoting lending expansion, despite the expected gradual termination of preferential programmes. the banking system ’ s claims on companies are forecast to increase by 7 – 11 % this year, and those on households — by 14 – 18 %, largely as a result of the accelerated expansion of mortgage lending. as regards fluctuations in banking sector liquidity observed in recent months, they had no impact on monetary conditions. as before, the bank of russia preserved money market rates close to the key rate. this became possible owing to the streamlined operational procedure which is efficient amid both a deficit and a surplus of liquidity. today, we have published the bank of russia ’ s updated baseline forecast. it relies on the following assumptions : first of all, external conditions have become more promising. the global economy is expected to grow faster owing to mass vaccination and additional fiscal stimuli in advanced economies. this will strengthen external demand for russian exports. therefore, we have increased our forecast of oil prices from 45 to 50 us dollars per barrel for 2021 and 2022. nonetheless, our forecast remains conservative given the high uncertainty about a potential further spread of the pandemic. according to our estimates, a faster recovery of the demand for oil may translate to a greater extent into a rise in oil output rather than oil prices. 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches as regards the 2022 – 2023 horizon, our forecast remains unchanged. the economy will expand by 2. 5 – 3. 5 % in 2022 and by 2 – 3 % in 2023. given the monetary policy pursued, inflation will return

very low, namely less than 20 % by 1920. moreover, getting a mortgage loan was nearly impossible for most households since a substantial down payment was required. figure 2 : homeownership rates the netherlands. taken from van de zeeuw & kraan ( 2001 ) and eurostat. after world war ii in many countries – including the netherlands – the idea slowly emerged that more homeownership would contribute to welfare, and should therefore be further promoted. in general, the housing shortage at that time meant that governments were willing to take drastic action to stimulate access to housing. the introduction of a mortgage guarantee scheme in 1956 meant that more and more households could access the mortgage market. since the government guaranteed that the loan would be paid off, lenders were willing to take on additional risk, and were able to loosen their downpayment constraints. additionally, households that wanted to buy a newly constructed home were eligible for additional subsidies that were introduced to stimulate building - in dutch called “ premiewoningen ”. meanwhile homeownership and mortgage debt were steadily on the rise. by the 1970 ’ s 35 % of all households were owner - occupiers. and by the early 90 ’ s this number stood at 45 %. currently the homeownership rate in the netherlands is almost 70 %. from the 1990 ’ s onwards the netherlands experienced a spectacular surge in mortgage debt and house prices. from 1995 to 2008 house prices more than doubled in real terms. mortgage debt increased in the same period. from around 50 % of gdp to over 100 % of gdp, as you can see in figure 3. fout! onbekende naam voor documenteigenschap. figure 3 : mortgage debt as a percentage of gdp in the netherlands ( 1950 - 2018 ) it is in this period that households and mortgage suppliers discovered “ innovative ” ways to fully exploit the tax advantages of mortgage interest deduction. new mortgage products were introduced that combined interest - only mortgages - and hence, maximum deduction - with saving or investment accounts that allow for deferred amortization. at that time mortgage suppliers also gradually started to loosen their credit standards. first, by allowing households to increase borrowing by including partner income for determining the maximum mortgage. secondly, by an ongoing increase in the loan - tovalue of new mortgages. borrowing at 110 % ltv was not an exception anymore by the early 2000 ’ s. additionally, households started to withdraw home equity