samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
, let me wish you all a very productive symposium with lively and enlightening exchanges of views. christine, the floor is yours. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

beneficial for all. the frequent exchanges we have at the bis, g7, g20 and even events such as this symposium, are valuable to create mutual trust and avoid the possibility of large policy surprises. our monetary policies are independent, and rightly so, but they are concerted and we are committed to avoid currency wars. clarity about our reaction functions clearly also extends to financial markets and the public at large. second, how could we respond to current state and future path uncertainty? the textbook answer, dating back to theil and tinbergen, is to work out your best guess and then act as if you are completely sure. this is sometimes described as the certainty - equivalent approach. there are, however, symmetry assumptions in this type of model that do not necessary hold in the real world. uncertainty around the central projection may be skewed in one direction. applying the certainty - equivalence approach also assumes that upside errors are regarded equally to downside errors. but given that inflation is still below the objective, as are marketbased long - term inflation expectations, upside shocks would be more welcome than equivalent downside shocks at present. let me at this point add some words on negative rates following my remarks lisbon last february, and state the obvious : we are in march 2019, and no longer in march 2016 when we cut the dfr to – 0. 40 %. this gap in time has two consequences : first, there were, at that time, significant deflationary risks, and we decided accordingly a strong calibration of our monetary answers. as these deflationary risks have now receded, there is obviously no reason to go more negative on interest rates. second, we have three years more evidence on the combined effects of our various unconventional monetary tools, including negative rates, on financial intermediation and their impact on the transmission of our monetary policy – the combined effects of which might 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches have evolved over time. so mario draghi rightly stressed that we need to further monitor the bank lending channel and to reflect on possible measures that we can take to preserve the favourable implications of negative rates for the economy, while mitigating their possible side effects. knightian uncertainty is different situation, for which assigning probabilities is not feasible, and is a concept that anyone trying to forecast the recent outcomes in the house of commons would instantly recognise. in such situations, it is usually argued that the best strategy is to try to avoid
of the impact of the december 2015 policy package on asset prices rests on a broad - based assessment comprising event studies and model - based counterfactual exercises. the impact of the march 2016 and december 2016 policy packages is assessed via model - based counterfactual exercises. the impact of the october 2017 policy package is assessed using two models : a term structure modelling framework similar to li, c. and wei, m. ( 2013 ), “ term structure modeling with supply factors and the federal reserve ’ s large - scale asset purchase programs ”, international journal of central banking, 9 ( 1 ), pp. 3 - 39 and an isin - by - isin regression framework akin to d ’ amico, s. and king, t. b. ( 2013 ), “ flow and stock effects of large - scale treasury purchases : evidence on the importance of local supply ”, journal of financial economics, 108 ( 2 ), pp. 425 - 448. 6 to this end, for instance, an estimated term structure model is used following li, c. and wei, m. ( 2013 ), “ term structure modeling with supply factors and the federal reserve ’ s large - scale asset purchase programs ”, international journal of central banking, 9 ( 1 ), pp. 3 - 39. in this framework, yields are driven by three factors : the level and slope of the yield curve ( ‘ yield factors ’ ) as well as a factor related to the central bank ’ s bond holdings ( ‘ quantity factor ’ ). in quantifying the impact on bond yields, the model thus takes into account the effect of the central bank ’ s current and future expected bond holdings, including the impact of reinvestment. 7 euro area yields are proxied by the gdp - weighted long - term yield of the four largest euro area jurisdictions. the 10 - year yield impacts are obtained from a version of the li - wei ( 2013 ) model used at the federal reserve to convert the soma portfolio of securities into yield impacts. impacts are shown for different app reinvestment scenarios, defined by the horizon indicated in the legend. the marginal impact of each additional year of reinvestment is given by the distance between the scenario curves. latest observation : february 2018. 8 praet, p. ( 2017 ), “ maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy measures ”, speech at the mmf monetary and financial policy conference, london, 2 october. 9 see the euro area bank

, b. ( 2018 ), “ the persistence and signalling power of central bank asset purchase programmes ”, speech at the 2018 us monetary policy forum, new york city, 23 february. 13 / 13 bis central bankers'speeches
financial products that can meet the needs of savers throughout their life cycle. the availability of a wide range of savings instruments for savers is a necessary pre - requisite for effective mobilisation of the nation's savings. indeed, the ongoing evolution of an innovative, dynamic and diversified financial system in malaysia will not only help malaysians save, but also invest effectively for their future by facilitating the more efficient allocation of personal resources. thank you.

in our economy has also been supported by increased lending by banks, including to households. for a number of advanced economies, this trend has become a source of concern. this is in view of their rising household debt that have exceeded prudent levels in the range of 80 - 100 % of gdp. household indebtedness in malaysia has, however, remained within prudent levels at 60 % of gdp. another important consideration that needs to be taken into account is the ability of households to service their debt. with rising income levels, the household sector in malaysia has continued to accumulate net financial savings as reflected in higher accumulation of deposits against accumulation in debts. household deposits, as a percentage of gdp, remains high at 67 %. strong household debt servicing capacity is also reflected in the continued improvement in non - performing loans ratio of the household sector, which declined from a peak of 12. 2 % at end - 1998 to 8. 1 % at end - november 2003. amidst low and stable inflation, the cost of financing has been kept low to promote sustained consumption and, of greater importance, to stimulate stronger investment activities. the positive effects of increasing bank lending, especially to small businesses, have been an important factor in supporting the domestic economy. as at end - november 2003, bank lending to small and medium scale enterprises expanded by 9 % year - on - year, accounting for one - third of the share of business loans. the growth of the small and medium scale enterprises is important in supporting a more balanced economic structure that will enhance malaysia's potential for economic expansion and employment. the merdeka savings bond will provide malaysians with an additional avenue and incentive for savings. for retirees who spend out of their pensions and accumulated savings, returns on their savings is an important source of income to support their consumption. the individual responsibility to have in place a sound long - term retirement income strategy, that integrates private savings, contributions to the employees provident fund and supplementary private pension and annuity plans, has therefore become important. ladies and gentlemen, this is not the first time that bank negara malaysia has issued such bonds. the second and third series of the malaysia savings bonds, which were issued in november 1999 and february 2002 respectively, had the same underlying objective. each time, the features of the bonds have been enhanced. the merdeka savings bond is for retirees who are 55 years old and above, and who do not have a full - time job. armed forces personnel who
there but i am sure some of those young people who have just joined the bank will certainly be there for a large measure of that time. and i think we have everything at our disposal now to achieve what i have set out. it is really up to you now to make that happen. so thank you very much and god bless you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

, have a hunger for education, whether you go to the village or the richest families in the cities, all of them have that great hunger for education. to me that is our strength. we have better human capital resources i would wager, on a per capita basis even than india and other countries in the region. so we can provide that real leading edge. our people are all over the world. wherever you go, if you look at expatriates, sri lankans in any country, anywhere in the world – i have been to the caribbean, places like barbados, even there you find sri lankans. and they are doing very well in their professional endeavours. so we have to reach out to this diaspora, as i call it, and ensure that they also come and help us but already within the country, we have a sufficient pool of people who really can lead the charge, not just in - terms of raising sri lanka ’ s profile but also attracting foreign investment and other resources which will help this country provide leadership in this region in the decades ahead. so remember that it is a great challenge for all of us, this institution is going to be at the epicenter of this country ’ s efforts to develop itself. president maithripala sirisena who visited us, a few weeks ago, made it very clear that his main objective is to see that people ’ s incomes increase. that is his objective. he has spelt out his objective. how do we achieve that? that is where we have to sit now and brainstorm. to me the key challenge is how to raise productivity. productivity is very important, output per capita. this is the key element that we have to utilize. we have to see how we can harness the use of information technology to leapfrog a lot of time that we have wasted in this useless war that ended five years ago and see that we really enable ourselves to make this economy grow, leapfrog into the 21st century, start using it and other types of skills which will then make us a very modern economy and raise our productivity levels which have lagged in the last thirty to forty years. that i think is a key challenge we should focus on, and how to achieve that is really up to you. it is your ideas that will make this happen. so thank you very much once again, i wish you all the very best for the next 65 years, i don ’ t know how many of us will be
few remarks, it is my singular honour to call upon the mr. mutua kilaka, financial secretary, ministry of finance to give his remarks and officially launch our website. bwana kilaka. karibu sana.

njuguna ndung ’ u : central bank of kenya ’ s new website – improving communication speech by prof njuguna ndung ’ u, governor of the central bank of kenya, at the official launch of the central bank of kenya ’ s new website, nairobi, 1 september 2009. * * * mr. mutua kilaka, financial secretary, ministry of finance ; dr. geoffrey mwau, economic secretary, ministry of finance ; dr. bitange ndemo, permanent secretary, ministry of information & communication ; board members here present ; distinguished guests ; ladies and gentlemen : you are all welcome to the launch of the new cbk website today. let me at this early juncture thank our chief guest, mr. mutua kilaka for accepting to launch our new website and to all our distinguished guests for joining the central bank fraternity in marking this occasion. ladies and gentlemen, it is important to note from the very onset that central banking has undergone dramatic changes in recent decades and many central banks now post and communicate their policies and forecasts in their websites. conventional wisdom in central banking previously held that monetary policymakers should say as little as possible and say it cryptically. in recent years, the understanding of central bank transparency and communication has changed dramatically. on its part, the central bank of kenya has employed a wide range of communication channels to ensure it efficiently and effectively communicates with the market as well as target audience. the launch of our new website today marks a major milestone towards the achievement of the bank ’ s vision of becoming a world class, modern central bank. our new website is also part of the bank ’ s communication strategy aimed at improving central bank communication platform and policy. ladies & gentlemen, central bank communication is important for financial market participants as it forms the basis for their extrapolations regarding current and future policy actions that might impact the value of their financial assets. so far, communication between the central bank and financial markets has worked fairly well. market participants have learnt over time to distinguish between information and “ noise ”. the central bank, on its part, has remained committed to provide markets with information while avoiding the “ noise ”. it has become increasingly clear to us that managing public expectations through effective communication is a central part of monetary policy and indeed, of central banking. this is an important aspect of formulating and communicating policy. public expectations are more likely to help foster economic stability when the public has a clear understanding of what the central bank
abbado, and i am also very much looking forward to this year ’ s opening concert by one of france ’ s most renowned baroque ensembles, les talens lyriques. this is the tenth year of the european cultural days. what do you think makes this cultural initiative a success? without the support of our longstanding partners and sponsors, not to mention our loyal audiences, such an initiative would be difficult to bring to fruition. our well - established partnerships with the city of frankfurt, reliable sponsors, local cultural institutions and our media partner hr2 - kultur have enabled us for many years to present a unique insight, each autumn, into the contemporary culture of a different eu member state. two years ago, together with our longstanding partner, the city of frankfurt, we began a new project : the charity concert of the european cultural days. under the heading “ a bis central bankers ’ speeches concert for you ”, artists perform for a good cause ; this year ’ s concert will be given by musicians from “ le cercle de l ’ harmonie ”. entry to the concert is free, but audience members are asked to give donations for a selected frankfurt - based charity. this year, we will be supporting the work of “ die frankfurter lesepaten ”, whose volunteers help primary school children from various cultural backgrounds aged 6 to 10 years to learn german. in choosing this charity, we would like to promote language acquisition – one of the most important factors for integration – and tolerance towards other cultures. this is in line with the underlying principle of the european cultural days : “ unity in diversity ”. bis central bankers ’ speeches

sales volume. in addition to rationalising the cost structure, banks need to identify avenues to enhance their income capacity. 4 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches last, but no least, consolidation can further enhance efficiency through reaping costcutting synergies created through economies of scale. nevertheless, this will be determined by market forces and the shareholders of credit institutions. let me now conclude. the transformation of banks'business model towards digitilisation may give them the opportunity in the long term to enhance their profitability by rationalising their cost structure and providing more efficient, tailor - made services to their customers. nevertheless, the underlying risks of this transformation should not be ignored. the competition from fintech such as emis and pis leaves no room for complacency to banks. they need to adapt to the demands of the new era regardless of which school of thought, which i mentioned earlier, they belong to. climate related and other emerging risks, like cybersecurity, must be taken into consideration during the transformation of business models in order to safeguard sustainable growth. it might be pertinent to recall what charles darwin said :'' it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. it is the one that is the most adaptable to change''. 5 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches
protecting economic muscle : finance and the covid crisis speech given by alex brazier, executive director for financial stability strategy and risk, bank of england member of the financial policy committee cfo virtual agenda 23 july 2020 i am grateful to imane bakkar, alina barnett, kiman bassi, richard button, mai daher, lee foulger, dan gray, benjamin king, philip king, sophie stone, matt waldron, and danny walker for their assistance in preparing these remarks. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / news / speeches and @ boe _ pressoffice these are immensely challenging and uncertain times for many of you. you have faced the reality of the economic numbers that hit the headlines : the precipitous fall in output, followed more recently by the beginnings of a normalisation in some sectors as public health measures have been eased. the path followed by the economy in recent months has had more to do with epidemiology than economics. how the public health situation, and therefore the economy, evolve over the coming months and quarters remains to be seen. the target of economic policy has been to minimise the longer - term ‘ scarring ’ of our economy ’ s muscle ; muscle that is made up of your and other businesses. the aim is to minimise the harm to our productive capacity – to allow output and employment to get as close as possible to their pre - covid paths, once public health measures are lifted fully. scarring could arise easily. to sustain employment and productive capacity through the virus disruption, wages, leases, interest, invoices and fixed costs need to continue to be paid even as revenues collapse. many long - term viable businesses will face cash - flow shortfalls that, unless they can be bridged, will result in redundancies, business closures and scrapping of productive assets. signs of that are already evident. in scale, such upheaval could tear the muscle of the economy in a way that would be difficult to put back together. the scars could damage the economy ’ s performance for a long time to come. 1 to scale the issue, we identified in may that 60 % of the 85, 000 biggest businesses operating in the uk – businesses accounting for an estimated 75 % of turnover in the economy – will face a cash - flow deficit this year if they want to maintain productive capacity. 2 [ see slide 2 of accompanying deck ] policy measures have therefore

chief economist and executive director, monetary analysis ©2023 bank of england
economic policy that was pursued in the second half of the 1980s resulted in imbalances, in particular, bubbles in the financial and property markets and an overvalued exchange rate. it was necessary to correct these imbalances, and this process would have been costly in any circumstances. however, these were not the only reasons why it proved difficult to gain acceptance for a low - inflation policy in sweden and why the thought of entrusting monetary policy to an independent institution raised doubts. the keynesian tradition has been extremely strong among swedish economists and across party lines ever since the 1930s. therefore, the idea that the state can continuously control or influence the economic situation has probably been more persistent here than elsewhere. our strong parliamentary tradition, which is based on the idea that all power derives from parliament, has also played a part. countries where power is shared more evenly among the political institutions have found it easier to accept the delegation of monetary policy to an independent authority. having said this, it is worthwhile recalling that there is in fact a completely different swedish tradition. the policy shift of the early 1990s is in fact a return to a long tradition of price stability that was temporarily interrupted for a few decades. between 1870 and 1970, the average rate of annual inflation was about 2 %. diagram 1. the development of inflation 1870 - 1999 inflation 1870 - 1999 percentage 12 - month change - 10 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 30 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 - 30 source : ecowin without wishing to labour this comparison, it is perhaps nevertheless worthwhile emphasizing that the 20th century was a time of unprecedented economic growth ; only japan ’ s economy grew faster than sweden ’ s. but this historical pattern came to an abrupt end in the 1970s and 1980s. price stability does not in itself create growth and economic development. these are facilitated mainly by other factors : the legal and institutional framework, the level of education, the will to invest and the availability of capital, technological development, etc. but price stability focuses attention on the rules governing the economy. those who set prices and negotiate wages do not have to worry about an erosion of future purchasing power but can expect price levels to remain stable. similarly, there is less uncertainty when it comes to savings and investments, and indeed economic decisions of any kind. furthermore, the distribution of wealth and income is less arbitrary. this was a key argument for gosta rehn, one of lo ’ s most prominent economists of all time

yourselves well at the party and the punch bowl will still be on the table when you go home! how long and enjoyable the present party according to this model, the scope for wage increases in a country with a fixed exchange rate is determined by price trends in other countries and domestic productivity growth in the competitive sector. will be will depend on many of you here, and on how we in sweden succeed in establishing a functioning wage formation process and labour market.