revisions to our interest rate forecast – and the revisions will often be anticipated. ideally, our response pattern is reflected in market interest rates as soon as economic news arrives, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy. and we do indeed find that market expectations tend to react to economic news largely in line with the bank ’ s response pattern. we also find evidence of reduced volatility in market interest rates on the days interest rate decisions are announced, compared to the period before the introduction of the interest rate forecast. this suggests that a more precise communication of policy intentions has improved market participants ’ understanding of the central bank ’ s response pattern. 9 the contingency of the forecasts seems to be well understood. the monetary policy loss function is described in e. g. http : / / www. norges - bank. no / en / about / published / publications / monetary - policy - report / 1 / p. 15. in march 2012, the operational loss function was revised in order to make norges bank ’ s consideration of financial stability when setting the key policy rate more explicit. for further comments on the norwegian framework, see also lars e. o. svensson ( 2011 ) : “ inflation targeting ”, chapter 22 in benjamin m. friedman and michael woodford ( eds. ), handbook of monetary economics, volume 3b, amsterdam : north - holland in an imprint of elsevier, 2011. see holmsen, amund, jan f. qvigstad, øistein røisland and kristin solberg - johansen ( 2008 ) : “ communicating monetary policy intentions : the case of norges bank ”, norges bank working papers 2008 / 20. see also taylor, john. b. ( 2010 ) : “ the transparent effect of foreign interest rates on central bank decisions ”, 26 september, in his blog economics one, http : / / johnbtaylorsblog. blogspot. no / 2010 / 09 / transparent - effect - of - foreign - interest. html. bis central bankers ’ speeches management of the fund besides making monetary policy decisions, one of norges bank ’ s main tasks is to manage norway ’ s oil fund. chart : governance structure the ministry of finance holds the political responsibility for the fund. the overall management principles and strategy are anchored in parliament and the ministry reports to parliament at regular intervals. the management of the fund is fully delegated to the central bank – to norges bank. our task as manager of the fund

jean - pierre roth : the swiss national bank ’ s new inflation forecast introductory remarks by mr jean - pierre roth, chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the end - of - year media news conference, zurich, 16 december 2004. * * * economic growth in switzerland has lost some of its momentum. for this year, however, we still anticipate economic growth to be close to 2 %. in the coming year, we expect the economy to expand by 1. 5 % to 2 %. on the assumption that the three - month libor rate will remain unchanged at 0. 75 %, we expect an annual inflation rate of 1. 1 % in 2005 and 1. 3 % in 2006. less dynamic growth, the weaker us dollar and the decline in excess liquidity have dampened the anticipated inflationary pressure somewhat. the target range for the three - month libor rate will therefore be left unchanged at 0. 25 - 1. 25 % and the rate will again be kept in the middle of the range. the national bank ’ s monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect. should unexpected developments push up the swiss franc sharply, we will take appropriate action. allow me to explain our decision. it is based on the outlook for price developments in the coming three years as summarised in our new inflation forecast. the graph depicts the current and the previous inflation forecasts. the dash - dotted green curve reflects the september forecast. like the current forecast, it was based on the assumption of the three - month libor rate remaining unchanged at 0. 75 % in the following three years. we can see from the graph ( blue line ) that inflation in the third quarter of this year was insignificantly higher than we had forecast in september. the dashed red curve represents the new forecast. it begins in the fourth quarter of 2004 and ends in the third quarter of 2007. the new forecast differs from the previous ones in three points. firstly, the projected inflation is higher until the third quarter of 2005. secondly, the inflationary uptrend sets in half a year later. and thirdly, inflationary pressure has decreased in the long term, which is evidenced by the lower - lying curve. there are significant economic facts behind these three deviations, which i would like to comment on. 1. slightly higher inflation in 2005 the increase in the anticipated inflation until the third quarter of 2005 is predominantly attributable to the rise in oil prices.