and, indeed, in other industrial countries ) has slowed so sharply since the mid - 1970s. i do not propose to try to untangle this puzzle today. nonetheless, there are a few points i would like to make with respect to the canadian situation. the sharp rise in the world price of oil in the 1970s no doubt dealt a major shock to canadian industry. because of our climate and because of the importance of primary commodity production in our economy, we are major users of energy. adapting to higher energy costs certainly took considerable time. [UNK] in my view, two other important factors inhibited productivity improvements through much of the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s : large fiscal deficits and high inflation. government deficits through the 1980s and early 1990s tended to crowd out private sector investment by appropriating an ever - increasing share of canadian savings. it was, of course, possible for businesses and governments to get foreign financing. but the accumulation of a large public sector debt and the rapid buildup of foreign indebtedness eventually resulted in appreciable premiums being built into our interest rates. high inflation through the 1970s and 1980s had a similar effect on interest rates. for these reasons, interest rates were high, even after adjusting for inflation. this discouraged some of the investment that would have contributed to gains in productivity. moreover, because high inflation increases uncertainty about the future, businesses and individuals seek protection from its ravages or try to profit from it. either way, scarce economic resources were diverted from productive investments towards hedging and speculative investments. i do not mean to suggest that the factors i have mentioned here explain all of our productivity problems. but they no doubt worked against the investment that was needed to help us adjust to both the oil price shocks of the 1970s and the global forces of the past two decades, and to make headway in terms of productivity growth. let me now turn to the question of what we can expect in terms of productivity in the future. future productivity trends and canada ’ s economic potential increases in productivity do not just happen. we need to work hard to achieve them. in a world of rapid technological change and intense international competition, there are opportunities and incentives for productivity gains - - provided we do what is necessary to take advantage of the possibilities. productivity comes from the interaction of business investment in new capital equipment, a skilled labour force, and the adoption of new technology. it takes entrepreneurship and innovation to pull it all together. typically, this interaction

also with the ability of central banks to control inflation through inflation targeting, which makes them proud. i think we should be aware of this new phenomenon in the global economy because the instruments used so far to contain inflation may weaken and we may have to reconsider their use. we economists are creative, especially in central banks, where we like to change the name of things that already exist. at some point, quantitative easing was invented, which is nothing but monetary expansion. i believe we should start considering other mechanisms to control inflation than the ones used so far. as regards restrictions to argentina's growth and their effects on inflation, together with their temporary overlapping, i think we have good news for argentina. when we arrived in the bcra in 2019, argentina's exports accounted for usd60, 000 million. at the beginning of the first decade, exports in argentina reached usd83, 000 million. then they fell to usd60, 000 million and figures remained unchanged for a long time. taking into account the experience we had about external restriction, it was difficult to think of an immediate strategy for economic growth in a country with worrying levels of poverty. 2 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches the good news is that, in 2022, argentina exported nearly usd90, 000 million. looking ahead, export estimates of energy, mining and the rest of goods are very promising. between 2022 and 2030, energy exports are expected to grow from usd8, 000 million to usd36, 000 million ; mining, from usd3, 800 million to usd15, 000 million ; and the rest of goods, from usd37, 000 million to usd54, 000 million. this means that the trade surplus in argentina, which recorded usd12, 000 million in 2022, will climb to over usd20, 000 million ( possibly usd25, 000 million ) in 2024 ; to usd30, 000 million in 2026 ; and to usd41, 000 million in 2030. however, it is a mistake to believe that the trade surplus is the only solution to all our problems and to recurrent inflation. german mentioned our studies on the inflationary phenomenon in argentina, and the effect that inflationary inertia has on the sustained price levels of our economy. however, this is not the only problem we have to solve. inflationary inertia will not be solved by growth. argentina has a very small capital market as it has gone through a long inflationary process.