barriers, world economic outlook, october 2019 3. imf ( 2019 ), the dynamics of external adjustment, external sector report, july 2019 4. imf country report no. 19 / 29, albania 2018 article iv consultation, january 2019 5. imf country report no. 18 / 39, bosnia and herzegovina 2017 article iv consultation, february 2018 6. imf country report no. 19 / 83, bulgaria 2019 article iv consultation, march 2019 7. imf country report no. 19 / 46, republic of croatia 2018 article iv consultation, february 2019 8. imf country report no. 19 / 160, czech republic 2019 article iv consultation, june 2019 9. imf country report no. 18 / 252, hungary 2018 article iv consultation, august 2018 10. imf country report no. 19 / 32, fyr macedonia 2018 article iv consultation, january 11. imf country report no. 19 / 293, montenegro 2019 article iv consultation, september 12. imf country report no. 19 / 37, republic of poland 2018 article iv consultation, february 2019 13. imf country report no. 19 / 278, romania 2019 article iv consultation, august 2019 14. imf country report no. 19 / 238, republic of serbia staff report for the 2019 article iv, july 2019 15. imf country report no. 19 / 58, republic of slovenia 2018 article iv consultation, february 2019 appendix long - term challenges for current account balance total population growth total population growth ( % ) ( % ) 5. 0 4. 0 10. 7 3. 0 0. 0 2. 0 1. 0 - 5. 0 - 14. 2 0. 0 bih croatia montenegro north macedonia serbia - 3. 0 europe western europe eastern europe southern europe total dependency ratio total dependency ratio ( 65 + / ( 15 - 64 ) ) ( 65 + / ( 15 - 64 ) ) 80. 0 80. 0 70. 0 60. 0 50. 0 40. 0 30. 0 20. 0 10. 0 70. 0 60. 0 50. 0 40. 0 30. 0 20. 0 10. 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 europe western europe eastern europe southern europe old dependency ratio old dependency ratio ( 65 + / ( 15 - 64 ) ) ( 65 + / ( 15 - 64 ) ) 60. 0 50. 0 45. 0 40. 0 35. 0 30. 0 25. 0 20. 0 15. 0

certain segments of the households and firms sectors remains at high levels, thereby generating high dependency on financing from abroad. this is a source of vulnerability, in particular to any future tightening in monetary and financial conditions on international markets. finally, from a broader time perspective, the sizeable structural component of the unemployment rate, population ageing and low productivity are the main constraints on the sustained growth of our economy. budgetary policy in 2017 before going on to specify the broad outlines of budgetary policy for 2017, allow me to remind you that the state and social security budget provides only a partial picture of general government activity. in a country as decentralised as spain, in which more than 40 % of public spending is by local and regional government, it is essential to take a broader perspective. since my speech to the parliamentary budget committee on 25 april, the government has published ( at the end of april ) the updated stability programme for the period 2017 - 2020. this document offers an overview of the budgets of central government agencies along with those of regional and local governments. moreover, the stability programme, by adopting a 4 / 8 broader time horizon, provides a medium - term plan, which is important for correcting public finance imbalances. the macroeconomic projections accompanying the stability programme, which update those included in the draft budget for 2017, involve an extension of the current economic recovery to 2020, albeit with gdp growth gradually slowing from the 3. 2 % rate recorded in both 2015 and 2016. specifically, real gdp is projected to grow by 2. 7 %, 2. 5 %, 2. 4 % and 2. 4 % in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, while prices are projected to recover, so that nominal gdp growth would stand, on average, slightly above 4 % throughout the period. these projections thus incorporate a path of slowing economic growth, which is also present in the forecasts of the banco de espana. however, as mentioned, real gdp may behave more positively in the short term than in the stability programme. as regards the budget, the path projected for the overall general government deficit is in line with the requirements of the stability and growth pact : declining from 3. 1 % of gdp in 2017, to 2. 2 % in 2018 and 1. 3 % of gdp in 2019. in 2020 a budget deficit of 0. 5 % of gdp is projected. this path of reduction of spain ’ s budget deficit needs to be achieved if the excessive deficit situation ( a