55 income di ( one year ahead ) - 60 06 / 6 2006 / 6 07 / 6 08 / 6 09 / 6 10 / 6 11 / 6 12 / 6 13 / 6 14 / 6 notes : 1. income di = " will increase ( has increased ) " - " will decrease ( has decreased ) " 2. income di ( present ) refers to present income compared with a year ago, and income di ( one year ahead ) refers to income of one year ahead compared with present income. source : bank of japan. bis central bankers ’ speeches - 20 chart 7 firms'outlook for sales prices : medium to long term ( average ) large manufacturing firms 2. 0 % chg. from the current level large nonmanufacturing firms 4. 0 % chg. from the current level 3. 5 1. 5 3. 0 2. 5 1. 0 2. 0 0. 5 1. 5 1. 0 0. 0 0. 5 - 0. 5 0. 0 2014 / 3 14 / 3 14 / 6 14 / 9 14 / 12 2014 / 3 14 / 3 15 / 3 % chg. from the current level 14 / 9 14 / 12 15 / 3 small nonmanufacturing firms small manufacturing firms 4. 0 14 / 6 4. 0 % chg. from the current level 3. 5 3. 5 3. 0 3. 0 2. 5 2. 5 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 1. 5 1. 0 note : the tankan explicitly asks respondents to disregard the effects of the consumption tax hike. figures for march 2015 are 1. 0 those based on sample firms after the march 2015 revision. source : bank of japan. 0. 5 0. 5 2014 / 3 月 0. 0 0. 0 2014 / 3 14 / 3 14 / 6 14 / 9 14 / 12 15 / 3 three years ahead 2014 / 3 14 / 3 14 / 6 14 / 9 14 / 12 15 / 3 five years ahead note : the tankan explicitly asks respondents to disregard the effects of the consumption tax hike. figures for march 2015 are those based on sample firms after the march 2015 revision. source : bank of japan. bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 8 distribution of households'inflation expectations ( after adjusting for reporting biases ) ( 1 ) distribution of expectations in 2012 ( 2 ) distribution of expectations in 2013 density, % density, % five - year expectations five - year expectations one - year expectations one

jan f qvigstad : contribution at the conference on “ welfare effects of financial innovation ” comments by mr jan f qvigstad, deputy governor of norges bank ( central bank of norway ), on mr frank smets ( ecb ) paper “ financial markets – productivity, procyclicality, and policy ”, at the netherlands bank conference in honour of mr nout wellink on “ welfare effects of financial innovation ”, amsterdam, 11 november 2011. * * * i would like to thank birger vikøren, sigbjørn atle berg and helle snellingen for useful comments. thank you for inviting me and giving me the opportunity to comment on frank ’ s paper. the common starting point of the literature is that the value of financial markets lies in their contribution to real economic growth. this is the perspective we always need to have for any meaningful discussion of the social value of financial markets. a well developed financial market is not a goal in its own right. during my 30 years of service in the treasury and the central bank, i have had my fair share of dealings with banking and financial crises. i will draw on some of that experience in my comments today as part of my modest contribution to this distinguished group. in the aftermath of the lehman brothers collapse the funding situation for banks became difficult, also for norway with its oil - driven economy. early in 2009 a swap arrangement was introduced to improve the medium - term funding situation for our banks. government bonds were swapped for covered bonds issued by banks and normal lending activity was restored. however, this was not the first time the government had used swaps to stimulate the real economy. we did so around 200 years ago... a swap of government bonds for privately issued securities was used already in 1819 when norway emerged on the scene as a sovereign country after the napoleonic wars. the 1819bonds were swapped for bills of exchange issued by farmers and merchants in the domestic market. with these bonds as collateral they managed to raise sufficient credit to import seed to secure important supplies to farmers and merchants in this difficult period in norwegian economic history. this is a historical example of how financial markets underpin economic growth. bis central bankers ’ speeches more generally, financial markets contribute to economic growth in three ways : they create credit to make it available for real investment. they allocate credit to the most profitable investment projects. and they improve risk sharing in the economy. the caveat is that they create