of business hours. we are also responsible for the core of australia ’ s payment system, which allows money to move from one bank to another. as part of this work, we operate the centre of australia ’ s real - time fast payments system, which makes it possible for money to move between bank accounts in a matter of seconds at any time of the day or week. we also print the nation ’ s banknotes. while cash is being used less and less frequently for transactions, there is still strong demand for our banknotes. on average, there are 18 $ 100 notes and 38 $ 50 notes on issue for every person in australia. the total value of notes on issue is $ 102 billion, which averages around $ 4, 000 per person. that is a high number. the rba has important regulatory responsibilities in the payments system, which are overseen by the payments system board. we supervise the central counterparties that are operated by the asx and that are at the heart of australia ’ s financial market infrastructure. we also have regulatory responsibilities for efficiency, competition and stability in australia ’ s retail payments system. one issue that we are currently examining closely is the public interest case for the rba to issue a digital form of the australian dollar, which could complement the physical banknotes that we currently issue. we have an open mind as to whether it will be in the public interest to do this. we are currently working with the digital finance cooperative research centre on potential use cases and also working with other central banks on this important issue. thank you. my colleagues and i are here to answer your questions. r e s e r v e b a n k o f au s t r a l i a

reflecting an increase in credit risk premia. while early 2019 has seen a partial retracement of these moves, both equity and credit risk premia remain higher than a year ago. graph 3 this rise in equity and credit risk premia follows an extended period where they had been unusually low, and even uncomfortably low, particularly in the united states. some adjustment to these was inevitable, and welcome from the perspective of financial stability. while these premia remain a bit higher than a year ago, they are still not that high by historical standards. at the same time that markets became more concerned about downside risks to economic activity, they became less concerned about upside risks to inflation. part of that reflected the revisions to the outlook for growth. but lower oil prices have had a significant effect on the nearterm outlook for inflation, and breakeven inflation expectations have shifted down accordingly. the combination of all of these changes – reduced expectations for growth and inflation, 4 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches increased concerns about downside risks, and higher corporate risk premiums – has seen market participants revise down their expectations for the paths of monetary policy rates. longerterm sovereign yields have also declined noticeably ( graph 4 ). graph 4 the change in expectations for monetary policy has been most pronounced in the united states ( graph 5 ). as recently as december, market pricing implied an expectation that the us federal reserve would increase interest rates in 2019. indeed, this was supported by the so - called ‘ dots ’, which show the median of individual federal open market committee ( fomc ) members'projections of the most likely outcome. currently, market pricing implies no increases in 2019 and even some chance of a reduction in the fed funds rate in 2020. once again, the repricing appears to reflect concern over what could happen, as much as what is considered most likely to happen. one way to illustrate this is by examining the survey - based expectations of primary dealers in the us money market. these data show that primary dealers are increasingly concerned about the ‘ tail risk ’ that the fed funds rate will return to zero in the next few years. nevertheless, their most likely forecast remains for further rate increases. 3 graph 5 5 / 11 bis central bankers'speeches central bank policy expectations have shifted elsewhere as well, although generally by less than in the united states ( graph 6 ). that difference is likely to have contributed to a depreciation of the us dollar after its trend appreciation last year