hernandez, c. and page, a. ( 2024 ), “ an update on the accuracy of recent eurosystem / ecb staff projections for short - term inflation ”, economic bulletin, issue 2, ecb. 26. compared with the projections for december 2023, annual average headline inflation was revised downwards by 0. 4 and 0. 1 percentage points for 2024 and 2025 respectively in the march projections. 27. the natural rate of interest ( r * or “ r - star ” ), is defined as the real rate of interest that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. see brand, c., lisack, n. and mazelis, f. ( 2024 ), “ estimates of the natural interest rate for the euro area : an update ”, economic bulletin, issue 1, ecb.

kazuo ueda : the bank's semiannual report on currency and monetary control statement by mr kazuo ueda, governor of the bank of japan, before the committee on financial affairs, house of councillors, tokyo, 18 june 2024. * * * introduction the bank of japan submits to the diet its semiannual report on currency and monetary control every june and december. i am pleased to have this opportunity today to talk about recent economic and financial developments and about the bank's conduct of monetary policy. i. economic and financial developments i will first explain recent economic and financial developments. japan's economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. exports have been more or less flat. with corporate profits improving, business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend. the employment and income situation has improved moderately. private consumption has been resilient, although the impact of price rises has remained and automobile sales have continued to be pushed down by a suspension of shipment at some automakers. with regard to the outlook, japan's economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions. the year - on - year rate of increase in the consumer price index ( cpi ) for all items excluding fresh food has been in the range of 2. 0 - 2. 5 percent recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass - through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. regarding the outlook, while the effects of the pass - through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, the rate of increase is projected to be pushed up through fiscal 2025 by factors such as a waning of the effects of the government's economic measures pushing down cpi inflation. meanwhile, underlying cpi inflation is expected to increase gradually and, in the second half of the projection period of the april 2024 outlook for economic activity and prices, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent. concerning risks to the outlook, there remain high uncertainties surrounding japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices