import costs and increase the likelihood of a reduction in interest rates in the us, all of which benefit our economy. energy and shipping prices have, however, fluctuated and we will need to keenly watch this issue going forward. update and outlook for the jamaican economy hurricane beryl i think it is appropriate to start the discussion of the inflation forecast with an observation on the passage of hurricane beryl. as you are aware, jamaica's resilience was tested by the passage of the hurricane beryl in july. the hurricane impacted the island on the 3rd of july as a category four storm with maximum windspeeds of 230 kilometres per hour. infrastructure damage to schools, roads, electrical networks and telecommunication systems from hurricane beryl is estimated to be significant. preliminary estimates of the damage and loss to the agriculture and fisheries sector is $ 5. 7 billion ( 0. 2 per cent of gdp ). crops in the traditional farming parishes such as st. elizabeth, manchester, trelawny, st. ann and clarendon were the most severely impacted. the tourism sector was also negatively impacted by a 4 - day closure of jamaica's international airports in the wake of the hurricane and the consequential temporary cessation of travel to the island. as i mentioned earlier, the projection for inflation to temporarily rise from its current level and breach the upper end of the bank's target range between august and december 2024, largely reflects the negative impact of hurricane beryl on agricultural supplies and related increases in other consumer prices. following this shock, inflation is projected to return to the target range shortly after the december 2024 quarter. in relation to demand conditions, for fy2024 / 25, the bank projects that real economic activity will be in the range of - 1. 5 to 0. 5 per cent while real gdp for fy2025 / 26 is projected to grow by 1. 5 to 3. 5 per cent. the projection for fy2024 / 25 largely reflects the anticipated adverse impact of hurricane beryl on the economy and is underpinned by contractions for agriculture, forestry & fishing and construction. the outlook for 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches fy2025 / 26 reflects a partial rebound in economic activity following the declines in fy2024 / 25. the risks to the inflation outlook are balanced ( which means that inflation is likely to be in line with projections ). rising international shipping costs, worse than anticipated impact of hurricane be

. i don ’ t have to tell you this. this is the shared experience of everybody in modern day jamaica. no doubt you hear it from your clients every day. let me put it another way : a policy with a face value of $ 100, 000 purchased by a young graduate 40 years ago is worth considerably less than 1, 000 of those same dollars at his retirement. in actual fact, the value of 100, 000 of today ’ s dollars in terms of 1971 dollars is $ 177. 22. so, where is the other $ 99, 000 or so of purchasing power? where has it gone? on the face of it, nowhere. the underwriter will still faithfully pay over the face amount or cash surrender value which could still be nominally $ 100, 000. but the expectation that this lump sum could have bought a house or provided an adequate source of investment income well into retirement is worse than a broken promise. time and inflation changed the price of everything except his savings. as it turned out, from the day the policy or contract was signed, the value of the jamaica dollar has been steadily falling. a dollar buys less each day. sometimes the impetus has come from some unexpected shortage of goods which causes the supplier to hike prices. the ability to sustain demand at these higher prices has been helped by the bargaining bis central bankers ’ speeches power of workers who claim higher wages and salaries to compensate for the increased cost of living. property owners charge higher rent, owners of capital charge higher interest and demand higher profits and earners of foreign exchange hold out for higher exchange rates. the government too plays a role. it borrows more to pay higher wages and distribute more financial support and if, instead, the government were to resort to borrowing from the central bank, it would be simply printing more money to fund its activities thus adding fuel to the inflation fire. at the end of the day, those without the ability to adjust their incomes to match inflation – such as pensioners, workers on fixed income and those with little income or property – become progressively poorer and their savings worth less and less. thus a princely $ 100, 000 policy in 1971 eventually becomes little more than a funeral grant today. when will this erosion of value stop? it will not stop entirely. everywhere in the world prices change as the relative value of goods and services change and as basic exhaustible resources become scarcer. but, as happens in the developed world and increasingly in emerging market economies, it is possible to conduct