m. roth s ’ interroge sur la relation entre le franc suisse et l ’ euro expose de m. jean - pierre roth, vice - president de la direction generale de la banque nationale suisse, a la chambre de commerce suisse en italie, a milan, le 27 / 10 / 97. 1. introduction les echeances fixees par le traite de maastricht se rapprochent a grands pas. au printemps prochain seront designes les pays qui participeront a la premiere phase d ’ integration monetaire. tout porte a penser, sur la base des indicateurs de convergence observables actuellement, que l ’ union monetaire sera plus large que ce que l ’ on imaginait il y a douze mois seulement. dans moins d ’ un an, donc, il se pourrait que tous les pays entourant la suisse aient uni leur destin monetaire. que devons - nous attendre, en suisse, de ce profond changement d ’ horizon monetaire? quelles en seront les consequences pour le franc suisse et pour la politique de la banque nationale suisse? je suis heureux de pouvoir developper ces themes devant vous et de m ’ exprimer sur sol italien et lombard, une terre si proche, geographiquement et economiquement, de la suisse et si proche aussi de notre coeur. 2. un changement profond d ’ environnement 2. 1..... en europe si, d ’ un point de vue suisse, l ’ union monetaire entrainera un profond bouleversement de l ’ environnement europeen, le choc sera encore plus marque pour les membres de l ’ union eux - memes. avec la monnaie unique, les marches europeens franchiront un nouveau et tres important pas dans leur integration. non seulement les biens, les capitaux et les personnes circuleront librement, mais il n ’ y aura plus qu ’ une seule monnaie - - l ’ euro - -

##scuring the assessment of risks, with attendant uncertainty. given the flux associated with both the financial markets and the monetary policy settings globally, india cannot be immune to these developments. the policy challenge for the reserve bank, now, is to manage the current transition to a higher growth path while containing inflationary pressures and focusing on financial stability. contextually, we in the reserve bank are, therefore, maintaining enhanced vigilance to be able to respond appropriately to the prevailing heightened uncertainties in global financial as well as monetary conditions. we expect to provide a detailed assessment of the evolving macroeconomic conditions as part of the mid - term review of the annual policy due to be released on october 30, 2007. the technical advisory committee on monetary policy is meeting on october 25, 2007, which will, as usual, provide valuable guidance for the review. iii. medium term : challenges and prospects for a large and diverse economy like india, with a low per capita income that is undergoing structural transformation in a highly uncertain global environment, challenges for public policy are manifold. i would like to focus on a few challenges that have been articulated in the latest annual report of the reserve bank of india – a document that reflects the views of the distinguished members of our board of directors on the subject. first, the recent upward trends in global prices of major food items have significant implications for the domestic agricultural sector and overall macroeconomic and financial stability. although the share of agriculture in overall gdp has declined over the years from around 38 per cent in 1980 - 81 to less than 20 per cent in 2006 - 07, agriculture continues to play an important role in the indian economy. the proportion of the population dependent upon agriculture remains large at almost 60 per cent. since the mid - 1990s, however, the growth of the agricultural sector has been low as well as volatile. volatility in agricultural production has implications not only for overall growth but also, as the experience of 2006 - 07 amply demonstrated, for maintaining low and stable inflation. thus, enhanced growth of the agricultural sector is vital for ensuring food security, poverty alleviation, price stability, overall inclusive growth and sustainability of growth of the overall economy. in view of significant weather and price risks, appropriate risk mitigation policies would need to be put in place to provide relief to distressed farmers as well as enhance the efficiency of production. in view of small and fragmented farm holdings, the population dependent upon agricultural activity will have to increasingly rely on non - farm sources of income in