the polish aviation institute ”. globalisation influences the perspectives of the world ’ s major economies. in the usa, the discussion on relocation of jobs to the asian countries became a lively element of political debate during the last presidential elections. similarly, in europe a debate is underway concerning the future of the single services market. there is no doubt, however, that any solutions of regulatory or protectionist nature may hinder all these changes only temporarily, as they are inevitable. the countries, whose politicians will understand the mechanisms of the global economy and will implement necessary reforms to improve the investment climate, will benefit the most from the globalisation processes. entrepreneurs should also keep a sharp lookout on the globalisation processes currently underway, in order to respond to the emerging threats in a timely manner, but - first of all - in order to benefit from the great opportunities that they create. thank you very much for your attention.

will continue, and yield curve inversion may even deepen on major markets, and knock the door in some emerging markets 20. pimco seems to subscribe to this possibility, although they do not use asset shortage argument, but they do say : “ local markets investments may provide the greatest divergence of returns within the em universe, with those “ developing ” economies furthest along the road to “ developed ” market status able to enact traditional policy prescriptions in a slowing global economy and therefore providing enhanced return potential to local fixed - income instruments “. as a central banker in emerging market economy well advanced on the road to developed status i ask myself a question which view of the world is correct, because it may have different implications for growth and inflation prospects. should we expect slowing external demand combined with local currency strength or combined with a local currency weakness. these are important questions ( even in the context of falling exchange rate pass - through ) which will be empirically answered next year. today we can think only in balance of risks terms. evidence in the last few months, including december bis report 21 shows, that official institutions may have accelerated their attempts to diversify reserve assets, which may mean more demand for high - yielding assets and for non - core currencies, and in particular for emerging market currencies ( recall government of singapore investment corporation statement that emerging market weight in their assets under management will be increased, recall a number of hints given by oil exporting nations, or recall the statements given by gomez m. ( 2006 ) „ is it safe? ”, emerging markets watch, pimco, september 2006. i acknowledge that it would be against the historical evidence that after the end of the tightening cycle and the beginning of easing cycle the fall of 2 - year rates was deeper than that of 10 - year rates. but it is precisely the issue we discuss here : are historical patterns a good guide for the future? bis ( 2006 ) „ quarterly review ”, bank for international settlements, december 2006. chinese authorities that the central bank should be more open - minded about cooperating with the government institutions in managing huge reserve assets ). so, ceteris paribus, this factor will imply balance of risks skewed towards further risk premia compression in emerging markets in situation when us growth slows and expected returns in developed markets drop amid poor growth outlook. the important question is how it will end? temporary us growth slowdown is unlikely to solve global imbalances