current investment. 2 that uncertainty has such real effects is clear. however, the precise degree of uncertainty at any given point in time and its impact on economic activity are themselves uncertain. see the imf ’ s world economic outlook ( weo ), “ coping with high debt and sluggish growth, ” october 2012, which also includes a discussion of uncertainty. available at http : / / www. imf. org / external / pubs / ft / weo / 2012 / 02 / index. htm. b. bernanke, “ irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment, ” the quarterly journal of economics 98, no. 1 ( 1983 ) : 85 – 106. bis central bankers ’ speeches according to standard measures of financial market volatility, such as the vix, or implied volatilities from options prices in other asset classes, the current environment does not appear to be particularly uncertain. 3 in fact, many of these measures are at post - crisis lows. the comfort offered by these market - based measures may be misleading. for one, they may be importantly influenced by the extraordinary liquidity provided by central banks. this liquidity has supported financial markets and thereby provided insurance against downside risks. the dampening effect of central bank action may not persist if economic fundamentals do not ultimately improve, meaning that there could be a discontinuous shift in volatility at some point in the future. moreover, trading volumes across asset classes have generally been low in recent months, as many market participants with large cash holdings sit on the sidelines. paralysis, not confidence, may better account for the observed declines in actual and implied volatility. this apparent lack of conviction in markets can itself be considered a sign of unusual levels of uncertainty. other indicators, such as surveys of households and businesses, tend to be more consistent with what many feel. for instance, the most recent small business problems & priorities survey of the u. s. national federation of independent business finds that “ uncertainty over economic conditions ” ranked second in their list of most “ critical ” problems. “ uncertainty over government actions ” was fourth. another index of economic policy uncertainty for the united states, constructed by researchers at stanford, has shown a clear upward trend in recent years. 4 they estimate that the rise in policy uncertainty between 2006 and 2011 reduced the level of real u. s. gdp by approximately 3 per cent and was associated with a loss of about 2.

larger volumes of resources can be accumulated for such purposes. again, the outcome is likely to target savings in funds that are only accessible for lower cost financing after natural disasters. enhancing financial resilience through technology moving from households to financial institutions, technology will have to feature more prominently in our resilience and recovery plan. indeed the recovery of access to financial services is vital to restarting commercial activities. payments services have to be present for businesses to operate ; for the government and aid agencies to effectively dispense financial assistance, and even to make use of early payouts from insurance policies. at present, there is still too much dependence on cash handling services and therefore commerce is only able recover clumsily, when the physical support that banks provide is missing or hampered. fully accessible and enabled digital mobile payments would resolve many logistical challenges at once. project sand dollar has the potential to deliver this longer - term resilience. it would permit wireless restoration of payments connectively, avoiding the cash shipment and cash handling frustrations. it would permit electronic dispersing of aid ; and allow families to recapture personal dignity, by restoring the flexibility to prioritise the elements of personal need that they prefer to satisfy postdisasters. one of the impacts of the recent hurricane on the country ’ s banking sector was the significant damage to physical structures in abaco and grand bahama, which also shut down operations on those islands. critical to restoring a sense of commerce is the timely resumption of banking and payments systems. for this reason, the central bank is exploring an early entry of project sand dollar into abaco. it will allow the bank to test aspects of the emergency wireless communications features that would enable rapid financial services recovery ; and to connect with many retail businesses early in their recovery process. the sand dollar infrastructure is being designed to connect with bank accounts, so that remote access to these facilities is also quickly re - enabled for deposits and withdrawals. tourism sector resilience for the fixed - exchange rate regime i started to touch on the stability of our fixed exchange rate regime and the value of the bahamian dollar earlier. for the medium and longer - term this amounts to making the foreign exchange earning assets more resilient. hotels and other onshore accommodations are the bahamas ’ most valuable and most exposed assets. damages to abaco are most summarized by the extent to which these assets have been taken offline. in 2016, hurricane matthew similarly resulted in the loss of much of grand bahama