##ial impact on the world economy as a whole. further, public policies in regard to food, especially diversion to bio - fuel ; cross border trading ; subsidies ; and replenishment or use of buffer stocks ; would impact the evolution of prices globally. however, the redeeming feature is that supply response in regard to food grains is possible in a year or two. as per fao estimates, wheat output is set to achieve a new record in 2008, though against the backdrop of deeply depleted stocks. global production of rice in 2008 is expected to be marginally better than the previous year and hence, some depletion of stocks held may be expected. global output of edible oil is anticipated to fall by about three per cent in the current year, and according to fao, oil seeds and edible oil prices are expected to remain firm. what is the medium term to long term outlook for food prices at the global level? according to the agricultural outlook from oecd and fao, while agricultural commodity prices should ease from their recent record peaks, they are expected to average well above their mean level of the past decade. two days ago ( june 3rd ) u. n. secretary - general said, in a speech at the high - level conference on world food security hosted by fao that world food output needs to rise by 50 per cent by 2030 to meet rising demand. the implications of such a scenario in global farm outputs and prices for us should be very clear. with rapid economic growth in our country, the food - consumption will rise in an unprecedented fashion since we are over a billion people. the food basket will also change. we have to augment food supplies within the country since marginal requirements or even a perception of shortfalls in domestic supply in our economy can have significant influence on world prices. as we have over half of the work force depending on agriculture, and as we have scope for increasing productivity in agriculture, there is no reason why we cannot ensure food security for our country, at a minimum. indeed, india can become the “ annapoorna ” for the world and i feel that andhra pradesh can become the “ annapoorna ” for india. in this regard, i can do no better than quote dr. m. s. swaminathan, one of our esteemed agricultural scientists, “ india has the technological and economic capability to demonstrate how farming system can be adjusted to different weather patterns. it is hoped that at the rome conference, indian representatives will serve

is only slightly better. the level of the fiscal deficit and the political difficulty in reaching agreement on an appropriate deficit - reduction plan, resulted in a us downgrade ( the first in its history ). earlier this week, fitch ratings revised the us ratings outlook, from stable to negative. the oecd projects that the us economy will grow at a 2 per cent rate next year. it insists, however, that this tepid recovery will only hold if policy makers in washington break their impasse over the federal budget. without action by congress, the oecd projects that economic growth would be barely measurable at 0. 3 per cent next year, and 1. 3 per cent in 2013. i have just painted a situation, ladies and gentlemen, where our major export markets – countries that account for more than 65 per cent of our total exports – are facing real crisis – perhaps, several years of anemic growth and continued high unemployment levels. bis central bankers ’ speeches and what about our regional economies, which account for the bulk of the remainder of our exports? they are also facing fiscal and debt challenges, while economic growth continues to suffer from the impact of sluggish tourism activity, a sharp decline in workers ’ remittances and the slump in direct investment flows. already in 2011, two caribbean countries have signed new arrangements with the imf, and three countries – the bahamas, barbados and jamaica, have been downgraded by rating agencies. the caribbean region is projected to grow modestly at around 3 per cent in 2012, with guyana and suriname being the only countries showing robust growth. the economy of trinidad and tobago has shown remarkable resilience, thanks to our energy resources and to our much lower public debt position. unfortunately, we are yet to see tangible signs of a solid recovery from the downturn that began in late 2008. moreover, we are now facing a new reality in which we could no longer expect exclusive dependence on the energy sector, now facing a situation in which growth and employment generation will have to depend increasingly on a diversified and competitive non - energy sector. let me give a brief summary of our current economic position. you would recall that, after strong growth in the period 2002 – 2008, real gdp declined by 3 per cent in 2009 and stagnated in 2010. projections made by the cso point to a further gdp decline of 1. 4 per cent in 2011. production indicators compiled by the central bank suggest that there was a decline in real