. measured inflation expectations have risen, while financial markets have experienced bouts of inflation - related volatility. in chile, inflation has evolved as expected, as the cpi ’ s annual change rose to 3. 6 percent in may. expectations are in line with the two - year policy target. the annual variation of the cpi has continued to be mainly determined by the behavior of goods and energy prices. the former continues to be pressured by tight inventories in a context of high demand. the latter reflects the rise in oil prices and the low comparison base. core cpi today stands at 3. 4 percent ( figure 12 ). iii. projections expected growth for this year substantially increases in the central scenario, to a range between 8. 5 and 9. 5 percent. about two - thirds of the difference with the march forecast is explained by the buildup of expenditureboosting measures, and the other third mainly by the better start of the year and the adaptation of the economy ( figure 13 ). it is important to note that, assuming that after the march and april setbacks, the economy returns to february ’ s level and stays there for the rest of the year, gdp growth in 2021 would be close to 7. 5 percent even before considering any effects from the third pension - fund withdrawal and the massive fiscal transfers ( figure 14 ). the vast fiscal transfers and the approval of the third withdrawal of pension savings result in projecting annual private consumption growth at around 15 percent ( around 12 percent in march ). meanwhile, gfcf is forecast to rise by 11. 4 percent in the year, and total exports to do so by 1 percent. for 2022 and 2023, expected growth ranges are revised downward, given the higher base of comparison, the gradual decline in the consumption impulse and limited investment dynamism. in the central scenario, gdp will increase between 2 and 3 percent in 2022, and between 1. 75 and 2. 75 percent in 2023. the annual increase in private consumption will moderate significantly over the next two years, largely reflecting the transitory nature of the current income - support measures ( table 1 ). for investment, significantly lower expansion rates are expected for 2022 - 2023 than for 2021. beyond the higher first - quarter effective result and the cyclical recovery expected for this year, the outlook points to limited dynamism. on the one hand, the latest available version of the cbc ’ s survey of large - scale investment projects shows little change in the

on global rates. with interest rates as low as they have been, the cost of capital certainly is not a problem for well - established businesses. but as economists, we know that credit provision will always be less than perfect in a financial system such as our own. and there is a risk that changes to global banking regulation, designed to make the system safer, could worsen any such imperfections. put another way, it is likely that financing gaps continue to exist – and could easily have increased in importance – for new and young businesses, for small and mediumsized enterprises, and for trade finance and infrastructure. given the importance of young company growth at this stage of the business cycle, the bank is monitoring data on company formation and credit flows carefully. still, we are seeing a number of firms in canada ’ s non - resource sector that are operating close to full capacity. under normal circumstances, you would expect investment intentions to be rising, but so far that has not really been the case. research done at the bank of canada and elsewhere, including conversations with business leaders, suggests that the main cause of weak investment is the high level of uncertainty that companies are facing, particularly about future demand prospects. bis central bankers ’ speeches and it is understandable that businesses would be uncertain. companies have lived through the daunting experience of the financial crisis and great recession. on top of that, we have had all sorts of economic and geopolitical uncertainties across the global economy. in such an atmosphere, it ’ s not surprising that business leaders would be reluctant to commit to major new investments. however, in my conversations with canadian firms i have picked up on another possible investment impediment – hurdle rates for new investments do not seem to have adjusted to the new reality. the hurdle rate is the lowest acceptable rate of return that a company chooses for an investment to proceed. generally, you calculate the hurdle rate by adding together the riskfree interest rate, a measure of inflation expectations over the life of the project and a premium to compensate for the investment ’ s risk. because the risk - free interest rate is closely related to the real neutral rate, and because the real neutral rate has been declining, it follows that hurdle rates should also be lower, all else being equal. i have had some business leaders tell me that they have been surprised to see, for example, companies in asia pursuing investments with implicit returns of around 3 to 4 per cent, well below most companies ’ hurdle rates.