5 % per annum and was published on 1 december. this value is based on the above - mentioned definition of price stability and assumes a trend growth in real gross domestic product of 2 - 2. 5 % per annum, as well as a medium - term reduction in the velocity of circulation of m3 of around 0. 5 - 1 % per annum. we shall not, however, respond mechanistically to deviations from the reference value for money supply growth, but shall first analyse them carefully for signals relating to future price developments. larger or sustained deviations normally signal risks to price stability. the second pillar of the monetary policy strategy consists in a broadly based assessment of the outlook for price developments in the entire euro area. this assessment will be based on a broad range of monetary policy indicators. in particular, those variables which could contain information on future price developments will be analysed in depth. this analysis should not only provide information on the risks for price development, but should also help to identify the causes of unexpected changes in important economic variables. some commentators reduced this comprehensive analysis to an inflation forecast. at the same time, there were demands for the ecb to have to publish these forecasts in order to satisfy the need for transparency and accountability. therefore allow me to make this clear : our strategy includes a comprehensive analysis of numerous indicators and several forecasts. to focus on a single official inflation forecast of the eurosystem for a specific point in time would in no way accurately reflect our internal analytical and decision - making process. it would impinge upon the transparency and clarity of the explanation of our policy. the publication of an official inflation forecast would also be inappropriate with regard to the accountability of the ecb, all the more so if this forecast were based on the assumption of no change in the monetary policy. the success of the monetary policy of the ecb should primarily be measured in terms of the maintenance of price stability, not the accuracy of its conditional forecasts. the stability - oriented monetary policy strategy of the eurosystem, which i have just outlined, constitutes a new and clear strategy. it emphasises the primacy of the goal of price stability. it takes into account the inevitable uncertainties concerning economic relationships inherent in the transition to monetary union and the associated systemic changes and guarantees a high degree of transparency. ladies and gentlemen, allow me to comment on certain suggestions on the orientation of monetary policy which have recently appeared in the press. some of these ideas give the impression that

european central bank : press conference – introductory statement introductory statement by mr jean - claude trichet, president of the european central bank and mr lucas papademos, vice - president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 7 august 2008. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice - president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today ’ s meeting of the governing council. on the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today ’ s meeting to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the information that has become available since our previous meeting has further underpinned the reasoning behind our decision to increase interest rates in july. it has confirmed that annual inflation rates are likely to remain well above levels consistent with price stability for a protracted period of time and that risks to price stability over the medium term remain on the upside. this assessment is underpinned by continued vigorous money growth, with so far no signs of significant constraints on bank loan supply. in such a context, it remains crucial to avoid broadly based second - round effects in wage and price - setting. the latest economic data point to a weakening of real gdp growth in mid - 2008, which in part was expected after the exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter. against this background and in full accordance with our mandate, we emphasise that maintaining price stability in the medium term is our primary objective and that it is our strong determination to keep medium and long - term inflation expectations firmly anchored in line with price stability. this will preserve purchasing power in the medium term and support sustainable growth and employment. on the basis of our assessment, the current monetary policy stance will contribute to achieving our objective. we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead. allow me to explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. the information on economic activity that has become available since the july press conference suggests that real gdp growth figures for mid - 2008 will be substantially weaker than for the first quarter of the year. as indicated on previous occasions, this represents partly a technical reaction to the strong growth seen in the first months of the year. in addition, it also partly reflects a weakening in gdp growth due to factors such as slower expansion at the global level and dampening effects from high and volatile oil and food prices. in order to assess the underlying momentum of euro area economic activity and to avoid being misguided by highly volatile