and there are signs of this particularly in the south and among the younger population – may erode individual skills and know - how and distance them from those that firms require. in the past, deep recessions have been associated with extensive restructuring of the productive system that has resulted in the introduction of new labour - saving bis central bankers ’ speeches technologies and organizational models. but the crisis can be the occasion for our firms to carry out and extend what up to now has often been missing : a profound renewal of the mode of production in connection with the digital revolution, which can give life to new forms of enterprise and employment in new fields of activity. productivity gains and employment growth can go hand in hand if domestic demand revives. the key is the growth of fixed investment, which forms the linkage between demand and supply. on the one hand, given the right external conditions, investment is the demand component that reacts most promptly to changes in expectations, while on the other it bolsters supply capacity by exploiting technical progress and responding to the globalization of markets and production processes. the ratio of gross investment to gdp has fallen by 4 percentage points since 2007, reaching a post - war low of 17 per cent in 2013. the difficulty of many firms in accessing bank credit has been a factor. but it is above all the widespread uncertainty over the prospects for demand growth and the orientation of economic policies that is responsible for postponements and cutbacks of plant restructuring and expansion plans. towards the end of 2013 opinions of the conditions for investment became more favourable, especially among the largest companies. in manufacturing industry, spending plans suggest a stabilization this year, thanks to the support of the capital goods component. these first positive signs can strengthen if the business environment improves. economic policy measures that act on both the demand and the supply side in a comprehensive, consistent framework can support economic activity in the short term and lend strength to the reform project. if that project is vast, vigorous and credible, it can alter the course of expectations, reinforcing the growth of investment, employment and consumption. the response to the acute phase of the crisis was notable, but the results have suffered from the fragmentary nature of the interventions and from the incomplete implementation of many of the measures adopted, in some cases owing to successive, at times substantial revisions made to them soon after. it is important to build on the foundation of what has already been done. for example, thanks to the measures in the service sector, the oecd

estimates about 60 per cent of the increase in world trade in the recovery has been brought about by the rapidly growing demand from emerging countries, especially for capital goods and consumer durables. the surge of those exports has been an important contributor to the recovery in high - income countries, in particular in germany 4. in order to help transform the aftermath of the crisis into an opportunity it is necessary to proceed now more than ever to the structural reforms already envisaged by enzo grilli in a number of articles. reforms capable of enhancing high and sustainable growth rates in developed as well as in developing countries, which may also be conducive to rebalancing of domestic absorption in deficit and surplus countries, most notably us and china. 5 he emphasized accumulation of human capital, education and research & development as essential elements to raise countries ’ productivity and to drive endogenous technological change. in his analyses enzo devoted much attention to china. to sustain high growth rates, china should move, he argued, on to a new development phase where accumulation of human capital would outpace that of physical capital. in the process a desirable rebalancing of the supply side of the economy ( from manufacturing to services ) would be coupled with a parallel development on the demand side ( a rise in workers ’ incomes and in public and private consumption ) 6. enzo was also a passionate communicator. whether in an ifi ’ s boardroom or in a classroom he liked to establish a dialectic exchange with his interlocutors. it was only natural for him to “ ritrovare la spinta del mercato ”. il sole 24 ore, november 12, 2005. world bank “ global economic prospects ”, january 2011. see for example “ sugli usa il peso di tutta la crescita ” ; il sole 24 ore, april 20, 2006. “ cina : la corsa e il rischio di una brusca frenata ” ; il sole 24 ore, september 5, 2006. bis central bankers ’ speeches extend his audience through a regular collaboration with the main italian newspapers, and since 2002 as a regular contributor to il sole 24 ore. for over a decade he engaged in a dialogue with the public opinion, a fact that, following the example of luigi einaudi, was only common to a handful of italian policymakers and academics. the word “ dialogue ” truly characterizes his newspapers contributions both for their frequency, almost monthly in