‘ review of the reserve bank of australia ’, final report, march. although scenarios have only recently become a standard part of the policy process at the rba, the need to consider uncertainty in forecasting and policymaking is well - tilled ground in speeches by rba officials. for example, stevens g ( 2011 ), ‘ on the use of forecasts ’, address to the australian business economists annual dinner, sydney, 24 november ; debelle g ( 2017 ), ‘ uncertainty ’, 7th warren hogan memorial lecture, sydney, 26 october. this particular observation is so typical that the abs is able to take it into account in the data series it publishes. seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the predictable fluctuations in economic data that the holidays and other regular calendar - based events create in order to more clearly reveal the underlying picture. for this scenario taken from the august smp we used the rba ’ s semi - structural macroeconometric model martin – it captures the main empirical relationships we see in the economy so is useful for this kind of scenario. rba ( 2024 ), statement on monetary policy, august. hauser a ( 2024 ), ‘ the ghost of christmas yet to come ’, address to the australian business economists ’ annual dinner, sydney, 11 december. see guttman r, k hickie, p rickards and i roberts ( 2019 ), ‘ spillovers to australia from the chinese economy ’, rba bulletin, june. for this scenario, we again used martin to consider the domestic implications. but because the focus of martin is the australian economy, we also leant on the oxford economics model of the global economy and literature on the effect of chinese growth on commodity prices to calibrate some of the international transmission mechanisms. another dimension is the likelihood of any given scenario materalising. defining objectively what the probability is of a given scenario materialising is generally not possible. instead, staff and board members must use their own subjective assessment. see rba ( 2024 ), ‘ minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank board ’, hybrid, 4 and 5 november.

services, but by commercialising the value of the information that they obtain as a byproduct of offering these services. if this scenario were to play out, it could significantly change the payments landscape, providing both merchants and consumers new payment options at low monetary cost. at the same time though it would raise a number of important issues related to data privacy, ownership and security. the probability of big tech firms entering the payments arena is higher if merchants and consumers feel that the existing payment systems do not offer them the services they need and / or the prices that are being charged are too high. as i noted earlier, where banks have been slow to respond, other payment applications have emerged. this scenario highlights a broader point. the way that people are charged for payments is complex and is changing : among other things, it is influenced by interchange fees, how the value of information is commercialised, and commercial pressures on banks. it is difficult to predict how things will ultimately play out, but these are issues the payments system board continues to keep a close eye on. 5. summing up to conclude, i expect the shift to electronic payments will continue. the issues of functionality, security and reliability, and cost are central to the development of the system. the payments system board will be keeping a close eye on these issues. while i have talked about a near cashless payments system, i want to emphasise that we don ’ t yet envisage a world without banknotes. the rba is committed to providing cash consistent with demand by users and to support its distribution. our development of the next generation banknote series is a clear commitment to ensuring that cash continues to have public confidence and to meet the needs of the community. the launch of the npp this year was a big step forward for the industry and a credit to all of the staff at participating organisations who worked hard over the life of the project to bring it to 13 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches fruition. as i mentioned, there are some key things that need to be done for the full benefits of the npp to be available to end - users, but i am optimistic that these can be achieved and this new infrastructure can provide great functionality for australia. 1 for a more detailed discussion of cheques, see tellez ( 2017 ), ‘ the ongoing decline of the cheque system ’, rba bulletin, june. 2 fraud statistics are published every half - year by australian payments system limited ( auspayne