, banco de espana. specifically, the new qna figures revise the gdp growth rate in 2022 upwards by 0. 8 pp. the projections do not incorporate estimates relating to the proposal submitted to the european commission by the spanish and portuguese governments to reduce the impact of higher gas prices on wholesale electricity prices, because it is not yet clear how this measure will ultimately materialise. the measures included in this plan would have a positive impact of 0. 2 pp on the average gdp growth rate. situation, use of the next generation eu ( ngeu ) funds and financing conditions that, while somewhat tighter than in previous quarters, remain favourable. turning to the inflation forecasts, in step with the paths of the corresponding futures markets, the upward pressures of the energy component are expected to peak in the second quarter of 2022 and then decelerate. the inflation projections rest on two assumptions : ( i ) that, in line with the information from the ebae, the pass - through of higher intermediate costs to final prices will only be relatively moderate ( albeit more forceful than envisaged in the december projection exercise ) ; and ( ii ) that the second - round effects will be limited, i. e. scant feedback effects between inflationary pressures on prices and wages. inflationary pressures will be partly alleviated by the measures contained in the national plan to respond to the economic and social consequences of the war in ukraine. 4 furthermore, these projections do not yet include the possible changes in prices on the electricity market that are currently being negotiated in the european union. against this backdrop, the projections see inflation standing at 7. 5 % in 2022. it will then fall in 2023 to around 2 %, thanks, above all, to the moderation of the energy component. underlying inflation will not start to decline until end - 2022, once the upward pressures on firms ’ costs associated with energy prices and bottlenecks have corrected. on average, it will rise to 2. 8 % in 2022 as a whole, but then gradually slow over the rest of the projection horizon. compared with the december projection exercise, the inflation forecast for 2022 is revised upwards significantly ( by 3. 8 pp ), due, above all, to the recent energy component surprises. the balance of risks in this projection exercise is tilted to the downside in the case of economic activity and to the upside in that of inflation, amid extraordinary uncertainty as a result of the war in ukraine and its geo

across the different sectors of activity. but public investment is also slightly below the euro area average. public policies should help to spur corporate innovation. in spain, the most significant incentives for innovation take the form of corporate income tax credits. although the subsidy implicit in these incentives is, in theory, among the highest in the organisation for economic co - operation and development ( oecd, 2021 ), they are actually deployed notably less in practice ( independent authority for fiscal responsibility ( airef ), 2020 ). thus, the various analyses performed agree on the need for reform. 6 in particular, evidence from around the globe shows that designing tax incentives that yield higher subsidies for start - ups leads to particularly effective policies. 7 it may also be worth giving thought to measures that would allow innovative firms that do not make enough taxable profits to claim direct reimbursement for investments. as far as public support for r & d & i is concerned, as important as additional funding is, it must be properly directed towards projects that yield synergies with private initiatives. part of this activity could, for instance, be channelled through venture capital firms, which have greater expertise in funding businesses at the start - up phase and innovative activities. according to eurostat business statistics data, ( sbs _ sc _ ovw ) in 2021 spanish firms ’ productivity ( measured as sales over employment ) in industry, construction and services, as compared with the average for french, german and italian firms in the same size group, was 62 % for firms with between zero and nine workers, 77 % for those with between 10 and 19 workers, 75 % for those with between 20 and 49 workers, 87 % for those with between 50 and 249 workers, and 79 % for those with more than 250 workers. a persistent negative gap can also be seen when looking at investment in intangibles ( banco de espana, 2018 ). a similar diagnosis can be drawn from certain international innovation indicators, such as the european commission's european innovation scoreboard ( 2022 ) or the global innovation index ( wipo, 2022 ). community innovation survey, 2018 see the white paper on tax reform ( committee of experts, 2022 ) and almunia and lopez - rodriguez ( 2023 ), forthcoming. see, for example the assessments of the effectiveness of r & d tax incentives in : the united kingdom, guceri and liu and dechezlepretre, einio, martin, nguyen and van reene