samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
portfolio flows to emerging economies ( billion usd ) source : credit suisse, bloomberg. source : cbrt. bis central bankers ’ speeches 1. monetary policy and monetary conditions in this period of extraordinary global circumstances, the policy framework designed by the cbrt plays a great role in confining the adverse impacts of global shocks in turkey. particularly the year 2012 was marked by the fruitful implementation of our policy mix. persisting global imbalances notwithstanding, we witnessed a healthier outlook composition of growth besides a more evident rebalancing process. as illustrated in the slide, the current account continued to improve ( chart 3 ) and the contribution of net exports to growth displayed a surge ( chart 4 ). i would like to put special emphasis on the contribution of both exports and imports, which proved positive, highlighting the effectiveness of the measures taken. chart 3. current account balance ( 12 - month cumulative, billion usd ) chart 4. contribution of net exports to annual gdp growth ( percent ) source : turkstat, cbrt. source : turkstat, cbrt. the year 2012 was not only a year of rebalancing but also a period of important achievements on the price stability front. inflation trended downwards throughout the year and fell by 4. 3 percentage points year - on - year. moreover, medium - term expectations showed a remarkable improvement for the first time after a protracted period ( charts 5 and 6 ). chart 5. chart 6. inflation and uncertainty band 12 - and 24 - month ahead cpi expectations * ( annual percent change ) source : turkstat, cbrt. * cbrt survey of expectations. second survey period results for the pre - 2013 period. source : cbrt. having started to achieve the intended results regarding inflation and rebalancing, monetary policy has adopted a more accommodative stance since mid - 2012. in this respect, the cbrt bis central bankers ’ speeches lowered its average funding rate gradually since june by increasing the liquidity injected to the market ( chart 7 ). improved risk appetite and more effective use of the reserve options mechanism ( rom ) have allowed a gradual reduction in the upper bound of the interest corridor since september. meanwhile, the liquidity provided for the market was further increased, driving overnight market rates close to lower bound of the corridor. chart 7. policy rate and liquidity policies ( percent ) source : ise, cbrt. capital inflows accelerated at the year - end upon the surge in

, who contributed to the report, primarily those at the research and monetary policy department as well as the members of the monetary policy committee, and thank every one of you for your participation. bis central bankers ’ speeches
##r a yugoslav currency. to academician ksente bogoev, who also served as a governor of the national bank of yugoslavia. to the governors of the national bank in the socialist republic of macedonia, mr. stojan kjosev, andon makraduli and risto filipovski. i would pay special tribute to the first prime minister of independent macedonia, academician nikola kljusev, who was one of the main protagonists not only of the monetary independence, but also as a maker of other decisions of that time, which meant completion of statehood. there is also the academician petar hristo ilievski, known as the man who gave the name of the macedonian denar. i also pay tribute to my predecessors in office in the independent macedonia, governors borko stanoevski, ljube trpeski and petar goshev and to all management structures of the bank, both current and former, largely present here tonight. i extend special thanks and recognition to all generations of employees of the national bank, that dedicated their work life to the institution, and have contributed with maximum commitment and professionalism to the continuous growth and development of the national bank. this order is your merit, but also a responsibility to continue delivering great results. to continue investing in constant upgrade and to protect the reputation of the institution, thus helping it to come closer to the family of the central banks of the member states of the european union. i am convinced that in the next period the national bank will continue to build and develop itself, and will successfully accomplish its mandate! may we celebrate this great event for many years! 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

event. bis central bankersa€™ speeches
consequently government ’ s savings capacity. a prolonged weakness of oil prices would inevitably erode the financial wealth accumulated in the stabilization fund with a correlative reduction in international reserves ; • a reduction in the yields on the investment of international reserves, as a consequence of low interest rates in international markets.

mainly to the lack of a strong separation of regular retail banking from such activities as prime broking and custody and collateral management services. it goes as far as stating that “ in this respect, the volcker rule, vickers and european legislation did not go far enough ”. i am sure that more could be done in this field, and i look forward to it, but i would also like to warn against an excessively formal approach. the real challenge is to avoid conditions such as “ too - big - to - fail ” and “ too - interconnected - to - fail ”. i bis central bankers ’ speeches observe, in this respect, that the awareness and the strength of supervision ( not only regulation ) have much risen in recent years. finally, i certainly subscribe to another of the report ’ s policy prescriptions for encouraging “ compensating investment ”, such as in r & d and social infrastructure, to offset the tendency of multinational enterprises to shift production, notably in the manufacturing sector, away from advanced economies, even if some reversal is currently occurring. and i cannot help but share the point made by angel gurria in his editorial, that addressing the multifaceted long - term challenges posed by population ageing ultimately requires business investment, notably in r & d and innovation, that supports productivity and economic growth. policymakers therefore need to ensure framework conditions that are most conducive to stronger capital formation. to conclude, identifying and monitoring old and new risks is a key ingredient for effective crisis prevention. the business and finance outlook that the oecd is launching today promises to provide analysts and policymakers with an additional tool that offers distinctive but complementary perspectives with respect to other established, useful and time - honoured outlooks and reports, such as the oecd economic outlook, on which i spent so many hours over the years in this very location, with colleagues i will always remember with nostalgia and affection. bis central bankers ’ speeches
luis de guindos : financial stability in the euro area welcome address by mr luis de guindos, vice - president of the european central bank, at the meeting of the council of presidents of businesseurope, madrid, 1 june 2023. * * * yesterday we published the latest edition of the ecb's financial stability review, which is issued twice a year. in my remarks today, i will provide you with the main findings of our analysis. two key developments have shaped the macro - financial environment over the past six months. first, there has been some improvement in the growth and inflation outlook since late last year. macro - financial conditions have improved on the back of a robust post - pandemic recovery, fading global supply chain disruptions and lower energy prices. at the same time, the outlook remains fragile, given downside risks to growth and relatively sticky core inflation. a second key recent development concerns financial turbulence witnessed this spring, with the spotlight increasingly turning on systemic risk concerns following bank failures outside the euro area. strains in the us and swiss banking sectors in march introduced an element of stress into a highly uncertain environment. while the fallout experienced by euro area banks was limited, these events have served as a timely reminder of just how much the preservation of financial stability depends on the shock - absorption capacity of the financial system. all the more so in an environment where financing conditions are being tightened to tackle elevated inflation around the world. framed by these recent developments, our current assessment is that financial stability vulnerabilities in the euro area remain elevated. tighter financing conditions to address high inflation have contributed to a reappraisal of the economic outlook alongside an orderly reversal of overly compressed asset price risk premia. euro area bank fundamentals are solid, thanks to the strength of banks'capital and liquidity buffers under stringent regulation and supervision. at the same time, continued improvements in asset quality and profitability are contributing to bank resilience. but there is no room for complacency. bank liquidity challenges could yet intensify. rolling over maturing bonds is pushing up banks'market funding costs, while competition for deposits is likely to rise and translate into faster deposit repricing. haircut and margining risk has also increased due to higher volatility in government bond markets. muted economic growth and signs of weakening credit quality pose downside risks to bank earnings. the outlook for banks has thus become more uncertain, with liquidity asset quality

has to be a more close and coordinated management of fiscal policy and monetary policy to fight inflation so that it does not spiral out of control in this period of high economic growth. thank you for having invited me to make this presentation at this important forum. i wish you all success in this forum. thank you and god bless. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches
and as their economic institutions strengthen, they will grow in their willingness to accept the vagaries, fluctuations, and diminution of central control that are inherent in a market economy. the next chapter in the china growth story has only begun. bis central bankers ’ speeches

risks and vulnerabilities in its economy and financial system. doing this without triggering a crisis of confidence is another key priority. • third, china ’ s economy is undergoing perhaps the most comprehensive and ambitious structural reform programme of any country in modern times. bis central bankers ’ speeches in the short term, these three objectives may at times be in conflict, presenting a trilemma of difficult trade - offs for policymakers. but if successfully executed, these objectives are mutually reinforcing and will lay the foundation for a more sustainable and vibrant first world economy. moderation in growth why is china growing more slowly? as china reaches a more mature stage of development, it is simply unrealistic to expect it to grow at the same rate as before. china is confronted with the reality of supply - side constraints that every economy eventually runs into. • according to un projections, china ’ s working - age population ( aged 15 – 59 ), is projected to shrink by 0. 6 % each year over the next 15 years. slower growth does not mean anaemic growth. china may no longer grow at 8 – 10 %, but it is well positioned to grow by 6 to 6. 5 % for the next five years. with the right mix of structural reforms, there is substantial scope for china to achieve faster catch - up in productivity and income levels. • china ’ s per capita gdp is modest by international standards and its labour productivity remains well below the frontier. • the less developed regions in china still have scope to grow at rates that are higher than the national average, and this process of internal convergence is itself an important source of future productivity growth. the large size of the chinese economy means that, at even more moderate rates of growth, the incremental demand from china will be quite substantial in absolute terms – and this is what matters for the global economy. • china growing at 6 % today adds us $ 340 billion of gdp compared to us $ 260 billion that a smaller china growing by 10 % added 10 years ago. • china contributed to more than one - third of world gdp growth last year, more than the combined contributions of the us, europe and japan. addressing vulnerabilities against this backdrop of moderating growth, china is also faced with the task of addressing vulnerabilities in its economy and financial system. the chief risk is leverage – both its level and its growth. • according to the bis, china ’ s credit - to - gdp ratio stands
adis ’ housing loan characteristics share of total new lending % % dti ≥ 6 lvr ≥ 90 lvr * > 90 * lvr series breaks at march 2018 due to reporting changes. sources : apra ; rba we know, however, that other characteristics matter as well. [ 6 ] the size of liquidity buffers and the income and wealth of the borrower also impacts the riskiness of the loan and the probability of borrowers ending up in financial difficulty. broadly, investors with high - dti loans are more likely than other borrowers to have high liquidity buffers ; they also tend to be wealthier and have higher incomes. this group of high - dti borrowers has historically been less likely to experience mortgage stress than other borrowers. on the other hand, there is a group of borrowers with high - dti loans that have lower liquidity buffers and lower incomes – these borrowers are more at risk of mortgage stress. so the bottom line is that high - dti lending is something to watch. but in and of itself, a high - dti loan is not necessarily more risky in a rising interest rate environment. the impact on individual borrowers will be varied but what can we say about the impact of interest rate rises on individual borrowers? we can use data on individual anonymised loans from our securitisation database to do some scenario analysis on the potential impact of interest rate rises on the borrowers in that dataset. for the purposes of this analysis, we assume that variable mortgage rates rise by around 300 basis points, which is broadly informed by recent market pricing to mid - 2023. the data suggest that over one - third of variable - rate borrowers have already been making average monthly loan payments ( including irregular payments to redraw and offset accounts ) sufficient to meet the resulting rise in required repayments ( graph 9 ). in other words, there is limited impact on these borrowers. on the other hand, just under 30 per cent of borrowers would face relatively large repayment increases of more than 40 per cent of their current payments. graph 9 repayment increases for variable - rate loans changes in repayments in response to a 300 basis point increase in interest rates * % % none 0 to 10 to 20 to 30 to < 10 < 20 < 30 < 40 increase in repayments ( % ) 40 + * changes between new required repayments and average monthly payments over the past year ; share

financial products that can meet the needs of savers throughout their life cycle. the availability of a wide range of savings instruments for savers is a necessary pre - requisite for effective mobilisation of the nation's savings. indeed, the ongoing evolution of an innovative, dynamic and diversified financial system in malaysia will not only help malaysians save, but also invest effectively for their future by facilitating the more efficient allocation of personal resources. thank you.
experience that consumers and businesses have with insurance. as major intermediaries between insurance providers and consumers of insurance products and services, how insurance agents think about their business and interact with their customers can make an important difference in helping millions of individuals, families and businesses across the country who remain ill - prepared for losses arising from unforeseen events. addressing this protection gap is ultimately the goal that we must all aspire to, to promote a resilient economy and the well - being of our society. bis central bankers ’ speeches

meaningful manner. without doubt, it is our collective duty, as an industry whether as regulators or industry players, to advance the welfare of society through a more inclusive economic development. the success or failure to achieve this will reflect on us all as a collective. in this respect, bank negara malaysia is proud to offer undergraduate scholarships to two deserving local students. this initiative to provide educational opportunities for deserving talents is very much needed and it exemplifies how one can contribute in a tangible manner to the local community. for the offshore industry in labuan, which has benefitted significantly from labuan since its inception, it is time to give back. 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches there are various ways in which the industry can assist the local population, such as innovative and creatively designed technical and industrial training that can assist in uplifting the job prospects of local talents. for example, fit - for - work programmes that leverage on online courses to complement industry supported training programmes and on - the - job training will improve the job fit of the workforce. needless to say, strong commitment by industry captains to grant similar opportunities, apprenticeship and fit - for - work schemes will surely hasten the upskilling of the locals. the industry ought to come together to devise a scheme that give opportunities to locals to get good jobs. as we move forward, we need to be more focused on the outcomes we want for labuan. we want a more balanced growth. a clear step forward is to formulate clear and measurable targets, and to review them consistently. the primary performance indicators that should be applied must cover aspects such as ; contribution towards malaysia ’ s and labuan ’ s gdp, quality of job creation, training and development for the local population, investment in infrastructure, access to financing by local smes. we must ensure that the benefits we obtain outweigh the incentives given by the government such as the revenues foregone from the notional tax incentives offered. the old adage – “ you can ’ t manage what you don ’ t measure ” – captures the essence of this idea. transforming the economic structure to become one that is more diversified, resilient and sustainable over the past few decades, the finance and oil and gas sectors have been the main economic contributors to the island ’ s economy, representing more than half ( 51 % ) of the economy. however, the decline of oil prices since 2015 have revealed the vulnerabilities of labuan
yi gang : deepen investment and financing cooperation for quality development of the belt and road initiative opening remarks by mr yi gang, governor of the people's bank of china, at the thematic forum on financial connectivity of the second belt and road forum for international cooperation ( brf ), beijing, 25 april 2019. * * * ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests, good morning and a warm welcome. taking this opportunity, i would like to give an update on what the financial sector has done to support the bri in the past two years and look forward to the future of financial connectivity. i. the progress thus far in financial support for bri first, the funding support system has been improved and financing has become increasingly market based and diversified. according to our statistics, chinese financial institutions have provided more than us $ 440 billion for bri, among which, more than rmb320 billion were channeled through rmb overseas fund business. china ’ s capital market provided over rmb500 billion yuan in equity financing for the relevant enterprises. the bri countries and enterprises raised more than rmb65 billion by issuing panda bonds in our onshore market. second, financial services have become more sophisticated. at end 2018, 11 chinese banks have established 76 branches and subsidiaries in 28 countries along the belt and road and about 50 banks from 22 belt and road countries have business operations in china. they are providing a larger variety of financial products and services including credit, guarantee, bond underwriting, merger and acquisition, risk management, clearing, and etc. third, international cooperation has deepened. the people ’ s bank of china has signed bilateral local currency swap agreements with 21 central banks along the belt and road. we have deepened third - party cooperation with the international finance company, european bank for reconstruction and development, inter - american development bank and the african development bank. the asian financial cooperation association has strengthened exchanges among financial institutions and improved financial resource integration. the belt and road interbank regular cooperation mechanism has worked continuously to improve cooperation among financial institutions. cooperation mechanisms, such as china - ceec interbank association and sco interbank association, have been keeping making progress. fourth, the concept of green development takes priority. the china society for finance and banking and city of london jointly released the bri green investment principle to promote green development along the belt and road. nearly 20 financial institutions from 10 countries and regions have signed up to the principle. fifth, more efforts has been made in capacity development. the

sustainability of the monetary policy. after the hard work in spring, we have welcomed a harvest – the long awaited launch of the gem – in the golden autumn. we sincerely hope that the newly - launched gem will grow in an orderly and healthy manner! thank you.