fall short of previous estimates, averaging around us $ 3. 5 per pound next year. ( us $ 3. 7 in june ) ( figure 13 ). this projection considers no changes in the structural parameters. the chilean economy has been stricken by important shocks in the last couple of years and the levels of uncertainty about their medium - term extent are significant. this has made it complex to evaluate their implications for estimating the structural parameters. in any case, even considering the current degrees of uncertainty, these parameters will be evaluated in the december monetary policy report. following the decision of the september meeting, the mpr stands near the maximum level considered in the central scenario of this report. future movements in the policy rate will depend on the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications for the convergence of inflation to the target. the board will be especially vigilant of the upward risks for inflation, considering both today's high level and the fact that two - year inflation expectations remain above 3 %. the upper bound of the mpr corridor reflects sensitivity scenarios where the global inflationary problem calls for a more aggressive response of monetary policy around the world, particularly from the federal reserve. in such an event, there would be a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions and growth, with sharp declines in commodity prices and a further appreciation of the dollar. in a scenario where domestic inflation and expectations remain high, further peso depreciation would require a tighter monetary policy response than that described in the central scenario. the same would occur if, irrespective of the cost pressures in the external scenario, local inflationary dynamics proves more persistent as a result of the high medium - term inflationary expectations of households and firms. the lower part of the mpr corridor reflects scenarios where inflationary pressures subside faster. this could be the case if the contraction of activity and demand is more intense as a result of a faster adjustment of private consumption and / or weaker investment, which would also negatively affect the performance of the labor market. nor can it be ruled out that the external scenario will see a reduction in global cost pressures and inflation easing in most economies, including chile. in this case, the fed's monetary policy response would be less restrictive than in the central scenario, which would give way to better financial conditions, a less appreciated dollar globally, and lower external inflationary pressures ( figure 14 ). the central scenario projects that the pace of price increases will decrease in the coming months and that annual inflation will

begin to decline. however, the risk of a much more persistent inflationary phenomenon is a concern for the board. if materialized, it could lead to further monetary tightening, outside the upper limit of the mpr corridor. this risk is especially important in a context where inflation has been unexpectedly high for several quarters and inflationary expectations remain above 3 % in the two - year horizon. quickly recovering macroeconomic balances will help reduce this risk, while allowing the chilean economy to appropriately address a further deterioration of the external scenario. final remarks our country is facing many important challenges. one of the most relevant macroeconomically is to reduce inflation, a problem that is putting a heavy burden on all of us. for more than two decades, inflation was not a matter of public concern and there were generations to whom it may have seemed an unknown issue. but in recent quarters it has become a complex issue, which is at the heart of our responsibility as an institution. therefore, we must make use of all the tools available to us to bring it back to 3 %, without adding unnecessary costs, of course. i want to be particularly emphatic in saying it : there are no easy solutions to this problem. bringing inflation back to levels that do not affect the population severely, especially the most vulnerable, necessarily involves restoring the macroeconomic balances and, in this case, what is required is a reduction in the level of activity and demand. monetary policy will continue to contribute to this necessary adjustment in an efficient and orderly manner. the coordination of macroeconomic policies is essential for this purpose, and in this sense the contribution of fiscal policy has been paramount. with yesterday's monetary policy meeting decision to raise the mpr we have brought it to a level that is near the maximum considered in this report's central scenario. it is very high, but it is in line with the levels that inflation has reached and with the challenges we face in solving the problem. during the last few months, not only has inflation been high, but its expectations two - years ahead continue to be above the 3 % target. this misalignment is a cause for concern because, as the inflationary phenomenon becomes more persistent, it makes stabilizing the price level more difficult and costly. hence the need to move forward resolutely in order to prevent this problem from intensifying because, as we well know, it imposes great costs on the population. failure to act promptly will only exacerbate