according to information derived from the quarterly survey carried out by snb regional delegates, this cautious approach will persist in the near future. this means that domestic equipment investment in 2013 will probably stagnate. on the output side, too, developments were mixed in the first quarter. construction, banking, insurance and health recorded clearly positive growth figures. in manufacturing, business activity merely stabilised. in this area, the situation in the metal processing and machine industries, in particular, remains difficult. both of these industries are suffering from weak industrial activity and the lack of investment demand on the part of companies in many european countries. most recently, growth in employment has slowed, and unemployment has risen again somewhat, in seasonally - adjusted terms. we expect that unemployment figures will increase again marginally to the end of the year. for the second quarter, we forecast a perceptible weakening in growth compared to the strong first quarter. in the following quarters, if the recovery of the global economy strengthens, economic momentum is likely to increase gradually again. we continue to expect growth of 1. 0 – 1. 5 % for the year 2013 as a whole. consequently, we do not expect that the swiss economy will return to full utilisation of production capacity in the near future. monetary and financial conditions i will now turn to monetary and financial conditions. in recent weeks, volatility in financial markets has again increased. since the last monetary policy assessment, however, the export - weighted external value of the swiss franc has remained largely unchanged. recent developments suggest that safe - haven considerations continue to play an important role in the demand for swiss francs. overall, the value of the swiss franc remains high and should fall further over the next few quarters. the level of interest rates in switzerland remained very low in the first quarter. on the secured swiss franc money market, interest rates are in negative territory. yields at issue for confederation money market debt register claims also continue to be negative. by contrast, yields on ten - year confederation bonds have risen slightly from the lows reached last december. movements in long - term interest rates show that demand for secure investments bis central bankers ’ speeches reacts strongly to the international environment. my colleague, fritz zurbrugg, will talk about developments on financial markets in more detail afterwards. banks ’ sight deposits at the snb have not increased any further since september 2012. however, growth in the m1, m2 and m3 monetary aggregates, which measure the amount

thomas jordan : challenging economic and financial conditions for the swiss banking sector introductory remarks by mr thomas jordan, chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the media news conference of the swiss national bank, berne, 20 june 2013. * * * the swiss national bank ( snb ) is maintaining its minimum exchange rate of chf 1. 20 per euro. the swiss franc is still high. an appreciation of the swiss franc would compromise price stability and would have serious consequences for the swiss economy. in the current environment, the minimum exchange rate remains important in order to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions for switzerland in the event of sudden upward pressure on the swiss franc. we stand ready to enforce the minimum exchange rate, if necessary, by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, and to take further measures, as required. the target range for the three - month libor will be left unchanged at 0. 0 – 0. 25 %. since march, the snb ’ s conditional inflation forecast has remained almost unchanged, apart from inflation for the current year, which is slightly lower due to a reduction in the oil price. the forecast is again based on an unchanged three - month libor of 0. 0 % over the next three years. for 2013, we now anticipate slightly lower inflation of – 0. 3 %. for 2014, the inflation forecast is unchanged at 0. 2 % and for 2015 at 0. 7 %. consequently, inflation in switzerland will remain very low in the foreseeable future. in the first quarter of 2013, the global economy was weaker than expected. the recession continued in the euro area. in the us, the recovery remained hesitant and in china, economic activity lost strength. in switzerland, real gdp rose significantly in the first quarter. however, we expect a perceptible weakening in growth for the second quarter. overall, we still anticipate growth of 1. 0 – 1. 5 % for 2013. the risks for the swiss economy remain high. they continue to originate, for the most part, from the international environment. a weakening in global economic momentum cannot be excluded. further developments in the euro area financial and sovereign debt crisis remain uncertain. tensions can reappear at any moment on global financial markets. domestically, there is a risk that the imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets will grow, given the sustained period of exceptionally low interest rates. global economic outlook i would