ahead, the rate of growth can still be expected to accelerate in the world economy and in swedish export markets. developments in equity markets also indicate expectations of a continued strengthening of economic activity in the period ahead. the rise in equity prices around the world, which began in the spring last year, has continued. at the same time, long - term international interest rates have fallen recently. it is difficult to determine how much of this is due to lower optimism about growth in the coming years or if it perhaps is more indicative of lower expectations of inflation. looking ahead, there is reason for some concern regarding developments in long - term interest rates, partly against the background of the weak us public finances. upswing also evident in sweden, but the picture is not entirely clear with that, i am now ready to discuss the swedish economy. allow me to begin by noting that the swedish economic outlook last year changed in approximately the same way as internationally. during the first half of the year, the economic outlook became increasingly pessimistic. in sweden, it was mainly investment that was weaker than expected. the weak economic activity was also reflected in the riksbank ’ s forecasts of inflation. this in turn was a contributory factor in the riksbank ’ s decisions to cut the repo rate on three occasions for a total of one percentage point. during the latter part of the year, however, the outlook became somewhat less pessimistic. in sweden, the weak investment was countered by favourable growth in consumption, both private and public, and a rise in exports. the assessment at the end of the year was that growth had increased gradually in 2003 and would reach 1. 5 per cent. growth in 2004 and 2005 was forecast to be approximately 2. 5 % both years, which on the whole is somewhat faster than what the riksbank considers to be possible in the long term without giving rise to inflation. new swedish data support this scenario, but the picture is still not entirely unambiguous. the national accounts for the third quarter showed higher growth compared with previous quarters. household consumption also rose, as did exports. at the same time, business tendency data are indicating growing optimism among firms during the latter part of the autumn, while retail sales continue to grow at a historically high level. but growth in industrial production was relatively weak in october and november while there was a reduction in the number of new orders. moreover, new estimates of the public finances indicate that public consumption this year may

jens weidmann : united in diversity welcoming remarks by dr jens weidmann, president of the deutsche bundesbank and chairman of the board of directors of the bank for international settlements, on the occasion of the handover ceremony for the central bank of the republic of austria ’ s ( oesterreichische nationalbank / oenb ) new governor, vienna, 1 october 2019. * * * 1 introduction dear chancellor bierlein, dear vice - chancellor jabloner, dear finance minister muller, dear president mahrer, dear governor holzmann, dear ewald, ladies and gentlemen, joseph schumpeter once said that to realise the relative validity of one ’ s convictions and yet stand for them unflinchingly is what distinguishes a civilised man from a barbarian. 1 ewald nowotny is an exceedingly civilised man. as an economist, he is aware that many insights are preliminary and potentially mistaken. at the same time, ewald nowotny is, in his charming way, always an independent and ingenious thinker. and as such, he has, for many years, left his mark on the governing council of the ecb. after all, of the remaining governing council members, only yves mersch and mario draghi can lay claim to a longer membership. from the outset, the years on the governing council demanded his full commitment. exactly two weeks after he took up office as governor of the oenb, the insolvency of investment bank lehman brothers left the financial community in a state of shock. the resolute monetary policy response helped to prevent a worse outcome. similarly, the subsequent sharp economic downturn in the euro area forced the governing council of the ecb to take unusual decisions. this period was incomparably challenging for central bankers – and instructive for us all. ewald nowotny has always unhesitatingly shared his wealth of experience with me and others. he has always been there to advise me and other colleagues if we had any questions. for that, i would like to thank you once again most sincerely, dear ewald. in all these years, the governing council has been able to count on your competence and independent judgement. but why is an independent assessment so valuable, especially in bodies such as the ecb ’ s governing council? 2 the jury theorem back in the 18th century, the marquis de condorcet, a french mathematician and philosopher, examined