, it appears likely that the hurricane will have a notable effect on gdp in the current quarter, although output is likely to rebound by the end of the year. according to the u. s. department of energy, between 20 and 30 percent of the nation ’ s oil refining capacity was shut down at the peak last week, and it is estimated that about 50 percent of petrochemical production was similarly shut down. some oil production has also been disrupted. these developments have put upward pressure on gasoline prices. based on previous hurricane events, the increase in gasoline prices should be short lived, but this outcome is uncertain and will depend on the extent of damage to refining capacity. improvements in the labor market have continued. according to last friday ’ s labor market report, nonfarm payrolls have increased around 185, 000 per month over the three months through august, about the same as the average monthly gains last year. the unemployment rate has been roughly flat for the past several months at 4. 4 percent, which is 1 / 2 percentage point lower than at the same time last year. the employment - to - population ratio for prime - age workers has also improved over the past year, although it is still 2 percentage points lower than its pre - crisis peak in 2007. 1 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches earlier this year, many observers saw the prospect of fiscal stimulus as presenting the possibility of a substantial boost to domestic demand. since then, however, many commentators have downgraded their assessments of the extent and timing of fiscal stimulus, and i have revised my outlook as well. that said, we are seeing synchronized global economic growth for the first time in many years. foreign economies — including canada, the euro area, and china — have posted robust gdp growth so far this year. this improvement has been reflected here at home in dollar depreciation ; higher earnings and stock prices ; tighter risk spreads ; and an increase in net exports, which made a small positive contribution in the first half of this year after holding down gdp growth over the past several years. in addition, there are indications that, before too long, central banks in several major economies could begin normalizing monetary policy, in many cases through adjustments to their balance sheets as well as their policy rates. those changes in foreign monetary policies could have important implications for term premiums and, in turn, longer - term treasury rates, depending on the timing and approach. 2 despite this benign picture for the u. s. economy and continued

stanley fischer : emerging asia in transition speech by mr stanley fischer, vice chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the 2015 asia economic policy conference “ policy challenges in a diverging global economy ”, sponsored by the federal reserve bank of san francisco, san francisco, california, 19 november 2015. * * * the charts can be found at the federal reserve system website. the views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of others at the board, on the federal open market committee, or in the federal reserve system. i am grateful to joseph gruber and jasper hoek for their contributions to this speech. i also thank ravi menon of the monetary authority of singapore and changyong rhee, ratna sahay, and james walsh of the international monetary fund for their assistance. i am grateful for the opportunity to participate in the federal reserve bank of san francisco ’ s asia economic policy conference, and i thank the organizers for inviting me. after a long period of rapid economic growth, asia ’ s emerging economies appear to have entered a transitional phase. for decades, emerging asian economies have been among the fastest growing and most dynamic in the world. supported by an export - oriented development model, annual growth averaged 7 - 1 / 2 percent in the three decades leading up to the global financial crisis. as shown in table 1, the fast pace of growth in emerging asia has also supported impressive gains in per capita income within the region. as the economies of emerging asia have developed, they have followed a similar growth trajectory, also apparent in table 1. along a path pioneered by japan in the 1960s, initial integration into the global economy has been followed by a period of rapid export - led economic growth, which subsequently slows as the economy develops and incomes rise. in a process that has been likened to the pattern of flying geese, development in japan pushed more labor - intensive production from japan into the “ asian tigers ” – that is, hong kong, korea, singapore, and taiwan – with that set of countries experiencing rapid growth in the 1970s and 1980s. as the tigers developed, low - value - added production was pushed further on, into the group of countries known as the association of southeast asian nations ( asean ) – primarily indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and, more recently, china, where growth took off in the 1980s and accelerated through the 2000s. 1 at each step in this process, the slowing of growth in the relatively developed and globally integrated asian economies was matched by