##s assume net immigration of 140, 000 people over the next three years – a further 3. 5 percent boost to the working age population. a much sharper reduction in arrivals or increase in departures, absent an increase in global growth, would slow domestic economic growth by reducing employment and demand growth. a resurgence in house price inflation house price to income ratios are high in new zealand, and especially in auckland. although house price inflation has slowed markedly, a further surge in house prices can ’ t be ruled out as mortgage rates are low, net migration flows are strong and large supply and demand imbalances remain in the housing market. a strong resurgence in house price inflation would increase the risk of a subsequent future correction. with a debt to income ratio of 167 percent ( up from the 2009 peak of 159 percent ) households are already heavily exposed to the risk of rising interest rates or falling house prices. in addition, the share of high debt - to - income ( dti ) lending to first home buyers, other owner occupiers and investors is high, making borrowers more vulnerable to rises in interest rates and / or reductions in income ( e. g. associated with unemployment ). this increases the risk of forced sales in a downturn leading to falls in house prices and flow - on effects on bank balance sheets and the broader economy. this is why we have been consulting on whether a dti instrument should be included in the macro - prudential toolkit. we wouldn ’ t seek to use it while the housing market continues to moderate. figure 4 : share of new lending with high dti ratios ( june 2017 month ) source : rbnz ii ) international risks other than unanticipated major geo - political developments, the main risk on the international side lies with the build - up of global debt. if one examines why the large advanced economies move into recession it has generally been because of inflationary shocks ( and the policy response to them ) or problems in their financial sectors. for example, since the early 1970s the us economy has experienced five recessions. three had their origins in sharp spikes in oil prices, and the last two resulted from asset price corrections that affected financial market stability. 19 the likelihood of central banks having to lean hard against a rapid burst in global inflation looks to be low. structural factors are playing a dominant role in the low inflation environment. these factors include : ongoing declines in the cost of information technology and capital goods ; increasing global competition in the

jorgovanka tabakovic : people, knowledge and trust are the key foundations of states and all institutions, particularly banking speech by dr jorgovanka tabakovic, governor of the national bank of serbia, on the occasion of marking the 100th anniversary of the association of serbian banks, belgrade, 4 december 2021. * * * esteemed ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, it is a pleasure and honour to greet you, from the position of the governor, on behalf of the national bank of serbia and in my personal name, on the day when the association of serbian banks is marking an entire century since its founding. your 100th anniversary deserves respect in historical terms as it attests to the durability of one of the oldest associations of banks in europe. the spirit of history commits us, just as it commits the national bank of serbia, which, with its 137 - year - long tradition ranks among the oldest central banks in the world. if we take a retrospective view of our institution from its very inception to date, we shall unavoidably discern that the rising complexity of economic relations called for increasing authorities of the national bank of serbia, whereby we have become part of the group of central banks with the largest number of competences. the traditional functions of preserving monetary and financial stability were complemented with the supervision of financial institutions and financial education. transparency is today one of important characteristics of central bank functioning. our objective is to ensure that our decisions are understood and that we are the service of our citizens that they deserve. we are clear in our attitude and decisive in our intention not to allow any speculations that could sway the exchange rate into a direction that would be undesirable for our citizens and businesses, and i believe this is the warranty of our successful duration. today, when we talk about history, i cannot but mention that it also implies the obligation and responsibility in terms of constant development and advancement of professionalism, expertise and true values. of course, the notion of true values depends on who defines them. i am certain that we all agree that people, knowledge and trust are the key foundations of states and all institutions, particularly banking. trust is a house of cards, destroyed by a tad of doubt, while the fortresses of doubt are made of the strongest material – prejudices and fear. esteemed ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, we have learned through history that financial crises have often broken out as the crises of trust and a disconne