wealth to financial assets has been completed, the objective will still be to restrict withdrawals so that the real value of the fund ’ s capital is maintained - in principle, indefinitely. the petroleum fund functions as a buffer against movements in the krone exchange rate when oil prices vary. the cash flow from an increase in oil prices will accrue to the fund and be invested abroad. in this way, the fund contributes to limiting an appreciation of the krone and maintaining a stable exchange rate. at times, it seems that participants in the foreign exchange market underestimate the petroleum fund ’ s buffer mechanism. since summer 2004, the krone, measured by the trade - weighted exchange rate index ( twi ), has appreciated by about 5 per cent. the chart shows the exchange rate and the price of oil since 1999. there does not appear to be any clear relationship between the nominal exchange rate and oil prices over time. the krone has appreciated in periods with high oil prices, but the same has occurred when oil prices have been low. the correlation between the oil price and the krone exchange rate has varied over time. since inflation targeting was introduced in march 2001, the average correlation has in fact been zero. this result is worth noting and indicates that the export of capital via the petroleum fund has protected the nominal exchange rate from price fluctuations in the oil market. therefore, there is cause for some optimism concerning the possibility of shielding the mainland economy from the effects of swings in oil prices. in the long run, however, petroleum revenues and their use will affect the level of costs in norway. an increase in oil prices may generate expectations of higher use of petroleum revenues in the future, particularly if high oil prices are expected to persist. such expectations may exert appreciation pressures on the krone. it may also generate expectations of higher returns in the norwegian stock market than in foreign markets, which also can and has contributed to an appreciation of the krone. our assessment is that developments in oil prices and an increased cash flow have been responsible for the appreciation of the krone since the spring of 2004. we are approaching a peak in petroleum production in norway and must expect a substantial reduction in the next decades. in addition, there is considerable uncertainty associated with future petroleum production. in recent years, there has been a tendency to overestimate projections for production a couple of years ahead. it is especially demanding to estimate production for the many large fields that have reached maximum capacity. the fiscal rule provides

. and already next week – on 9 november – we will be hosting an open webinar about the project. further to my remarks on cbdc, i would also like to comment briefly on the central bank money we already have, namely cash. in order to fulfil its functions in the payment system and contribute to efficiency, it is important that cash is both available and easy to use, ie that the public has real opportunities to obtain and use cash. norges bank will continue to issue cash and work to facilitate its use as long as this is appropriate and cost - effective for society. real - time payments a common infrastructure can be regarded as a collective good that benefits us all. payment solutions should therefore build on a common underlying infrastructure that is secure and fast and operates at low cost. providers can then compete freely for customers through various applications and interfaces. norwegian banks have traditionally agreed on good common solutions for the payment system infrastructure, but owing to developments in technology and market structure in recent years, payment services have increasingly become a competitive arena. customer contact through payment services has gained increased strategic importance for banks and other providers. at the same time, this may have weakened incentives to develop common solutions. real - time payments are payments where funds are available in the payee ’ s account within seconds of payment initiation – 24 / 7. a well - functioning solution for real - time payments is an important part of an efficient payment system. we expect the share of real - time payments to increase in the years ahead. chart 6 real - time payments norway ’ s banking sector established a common infrastructure for real - time payments ( called “ straks ” ) in 2013. the solution had some shortcomings and it took many years before it was adopted by several of the larger banks. an improved solution, called “ straks 2. 0 ”, was introduced in 2020 and is used by all the banks. straks 2. 0 is a clear advance on the previous solution. before straks 2. 0, the payee ’ s account was credited before interbank settlement had been completed. the payee ’ s bank ran the risk that the funds from the payer ’ s bank might not arrive as agreed. for all practical purposes, this risk has now been removed, with liquidity set aside at the central bank to guarantee settlement. although the removal of settlement risk is a positive step, this is not enough. the real - time payment infrastructure must be further developed.