marks an evolutionary improvement in the transparency of monetary policy conducted by inflation - targeting central banks. the nbu expects that the publication of the key policy rate forecast will improve the understanding of the nbu ’ s monetary policy by all stakeholders. this information will be useful to businesses, analysts, investors, and households. it may inform their investment decisions, business development plans, savings decisions, etc. the key policy rate forecast will shape the expectations of financial market participants, enabling the nbu to strengthen the impact of the key policy rate on the value of financial resources and, 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches hence, on inflation. the publication of the key policy rate forecast will make everyone better off. it should be noted that the forecast imposes no obligations on the nbu, and thus the actual key policy rate may differ from the forecast if macroeconomic conditions change. what will be the nbu ’ s monetary policy stance in future? the nbu ’ s baseline scenario envisages the key policy rate to decrease further, to 8 % over the coming years, provided that inflation steadily declines to the 5 % target. this has been made possible by the years long, consistent, systemic policy of the reformed nbu, which ensured the reduction of inflation to a single - digit figure and which will continue to be the main driver of inflation - reducing efforts in the years to come. the largest decrease is expected over 2020, along with inflation returning to the target range and inflation expectations improving. if existing inflation risks, both internal and external, materialize, the key policy rate could decline to 8 % more slowly. at the same time, higher demand for hryvnia government bonds from nonresidents and the subsequent strengthening of hryvnia will allow reducing the key policy rate at a faster pace than envisaged in the baseline scenario. as usual, a new detailed macroeconomic forecast will be published in the central bank ’ s inflation report on 25 july 2019. a summary of the discussion by monetary policy committee members that preceded this decision will be published on 29 july 2019. the next meeting of the nbu board on monetary policy issues will be held on 5 september 2019. thank you for your attention! 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

mr. george discusses the problems in asia and considers the risks they pose to the global economy speech by the governor of the bank of england, mr. e. a. j. george, at the british - american chamber of commerce lunch in london on 22 / 1 / 98. the role of the chamber is to promote anglo - american trade and investment, and you ’ re doing a pretty good job. two way trade in goods and services is running at around $ 50 billion in each direction, and has grown at an annual average rate of about 8 % over the past five years. over the same period the us has accounted for just over half of all inward direct investment into this country and close to a third of all uk outward direct investment. these examples suggest that our commercial relationships are in good shape. economic developments in our two countries have provided a favourable backdrop to british - american commercial relationships. in the us goldilocks continues to tiptoe through the tulips. total output has been growing for seven years - at an average annual rate of around 2¼ %. unemployment has fallen from a peak of 7. 4 % to 4. 7 % ; and consumer price inflation has averaged 3 %. in this country output has been growing for the best part of six years - at an average annual rate of close to 3 %. unemployment on a comparable basis has fallen from a peak of 10. 7 % to below 7 % and underlying consumer price inflation has averaged around 2¾ %. if that ’ s not goldilocks exactly, it is surely her younger sister! and while, in this country particularly, we are having to work harder to keep her from tasting father bear ’ s porridge, there are now signs that the porridge itself may be beginning to cool down - as it needs to do, quite soon and quite quickly, if we are not to see inflation pick up. some us business people - and certainly some british business people - engaged in international trade are understandably discomforted by the recent strength of our respective exchange rates - not vis - a - vis each other because the dollar - sterling rate has been relatively stable, but against the rest of the world. but the domestic environment, here and in the united states, remains - actually and prospectively - relatively benign. we are though both exposed to the chilly winds now blowing from asia. and i should like to devote the rest of my remarks to discussing the problems in asia and considering just how serious a threat they pose