samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
appetite to facilitate discussions at all levels of the organisation. this, too, they must change. these are a few of my thoughts on the topic of governance and the role of supervisory boards. now i am looking forward to having a discussion with you. thank you for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

eurosystem staff projections published in december 2009, the range for real gdp growth in 2010 is slightly narrower, while for 2011 the range has been revised slightly upwards, reflecting notably stronger activity worldwide. the governing council continues to view the risks to this outlook as broadly balanced, in an environment marked by continued uncertainty. on the upside, confidence may improve more than expected, and both the global economy and foreign trade may recover more strongly than projected. furthermore, there may be larger than anticipated effects stemming from the extensive macroeconomic stimulus being provided and from other policy measures taken. on the downside, concerns remain relating to a stronger or more protracted than expected negative feedback loop between the real economy and the financial sector, renewed increases in oil and other commodity prices, the intensification of protectionist pressures and renewed tensions in some financial market segments, as well as the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. with regard to price developments, euro area annual hicp inflation was 0. 9 % in february 2010, according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, after 1. 0 % in january. inflation is expected to be around 1 % in the near term and to remain moderate over the policy - relevant horizon. in line with a slow recovery in domestic and foreign demand, overall price, cost and wage developments are expected to stay subdued. in this context, it is important to emphasise that inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the governing council ’ s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2 % over the medium term. this assessment is also reflected in the march 2010 ecb staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual hicp inflation in a range between 0. 8 % and 1. 6 % for 2010 and between 0. 9 % and 2. 1 % for 2011. compared with the eurosystem staff projections published in december 2009, the range for 2010 has been adjusted marginally downwards, while the range for 2011 has been adjusted slightly upwards. risks to this outlook remain broadly balanced. they relate, in particular, to further developments in economic activity and the evolution of commodity prices. furthermore, increases in indirect taxation and administered prices may be greater than currently expected, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. turning to the monetary analysis, the annual growth rate of m3 turned slightly positive in january 2010, rising to 0. 1 %. this reflects mainly a base effect and confirms the assessment
are we ready for what lies ahead? if we go by mainstream indicators, the philippine banking industry remains to be in a position of strength. total resources of universal and commercial banks ( whose share dominates the industry ) grew by 11. 6 % between 2010 and june 2015 while their july npl ratio was at 1. 9 %. the capital adequacy ratio of these banks was at 15. 1 % with stress test results confirming that there is enough capital buffer in the event of extreme shocks. beyond these traditional measures, i want to focus on how financial technology or fintech has positively transformed our banking industry. today ’ s banking experience is more personal in the sense that it is driven by fintech. those of us in generation x may find that to be a contradiction in terms because we grew up not bis central bankers ’ speeches equating “ service ” with “ gadgets ”. yet, this is precisely the world of the “ millennials ” who capture thoughts and experiences in gigabytes. over the counter withdrawals now run in parallel to online banking services where the speed of transactions is limited only by bandwidth. atms are no longer just cash - dispensing machines since the networks offer a full range of consumer and corporate banking services. the widespread use of e - money means that payment systems can clear and settle the most retail of transactions without cash physically moving from wallet to wallet. yes ladies and gentlemen, this is the banking landscape of today and our banks have, by and large, redirected their attention to these facets. from a policy perspective, this was the wherewithal for crafting circular 854 which adjusted the minimum capital levels required of banks. it is a recognition that banking has moved on from the folders and filing cabinets of old to the systems and interfaces of today. we put in place an it risk management framework ( under circulars 808 and 859 ) so that all of these are governed by appropriate standards. to instil continuing credit discipline, circular 855 provided for credit risk management practices that, among others, de - emphasize reliance on collaterals and nurture verifiable credit underwriting decisions of banks. and to protect the consumer, the bsp has issued the landmark consumer protection framework ( under circular 857 ) that sets our expectations on the behaviour and actions of covered institutions. all these matter because our own demographic profile points to half of the population at younger than 25 years old, precisely the millennials.

mistake of being oblivious to the under - currents. in the end, as they say, if each member jurisdiction is successful in shielding itself from the currents of change, if together we are successful in transforming ourselves within the context of an integrated market, then asean may just prove the case that the whole would indeed exceed the sum of its parts. bis central bankers ’ speeches
tested theories, just as future research will make today ’ s research frontier look antiquated. rounding off the day, the ceo of nbim, yngve slyngstad, will present the norwegian finance initiative. this is part of nbim ’ s efforts to build capacity to ensure our strategies have a well - founded theoretical basis. bis central bankers ’ speeches

. flexible inflation targeting builds a bridge between the longterm objective of monetary policy, which is to keep inflation on target and provide an anchor for inflation expectations, and the more short - term objective of stability in the real economy. this contributes to predictability for those who take decisions about saving and investment today, although the result of those decisions depends on how the economy develops in the future. monetary policy must strike a balance between the various objectives. strong growth in the norwegian economy, a tighter labour market, a pronounced rise in equity prices and high credit growth must be weighed against unexpectedly low inflation. norges bank ’ s projections in the inflation report are based on an interest rate path that in the executive board ’ s assessment strikes a reasonable balance between the objectives of monetary policy. previously, we based our analysis on various technical assumptions concerning future interest rates. one such assumption was market interest rate expectations. as from late last year, we now base our projections on an interest rate path that we consider reasonable. this gives norges bank more active ownership of the projections that are presented and of the uncertainty we believe surrounds these projections. in the baseline scenario presented in inflation report 1 / 06, interest rates in norway and abroad are assumed to rise somewhat faster in the longer term than current forward rates may imply. exchange rate movements are difficult to project. the interest rate path at home and abroad may be consistent with an approximately unchanged krone exchange rate. the high growth rate in the economy implies a gradual pick - up in price and cost inflation. with interest rate developments as outlined above, core inflation is projected to increase from about 1¼ per cent today to about 2 per cent at the end of 2007. there are prospects of a further increase in inflation, with inflation projected to be close to the target of 2. 5 per cent three years ahead. the output gap is expected to increase over the next two years, but will peak at a fairly moderate level as gradual increases in the interest rate dampen demand growth. on the basis of the analysis in the inflation reports, norges bank ’ s executive board assesses the consequences for future interest rate development and adopts a monetary policy strategy for the period to the next report. interest - rate setting since last summer has been oriented towards a gradual increase in the interest rate – in small, not too frequent steps – towards a more normal level. based on norges bank ’ s assessment of the driving forces in the economy, this strategy appears robust. output growth is strong
set up in which transition risk shocks are identified through the text - based proxy and a combination of sign and narrative restrictions. as always, the modelling approach is subject to caveats and uncertainties. 35. see, for example, peersman. g, and van robays, i ( 2009 ), “ oil and the euro area economy ”, economic policy, volume 24, pp. 603 - 651 ; and baumeister, c. and hamilton, j. d. ( 2019 ), “ structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification : revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks ”, american economic review, volume 109, issue 5, pp. 1873 - 1910. 36. the cost of market capital for funding investment projects is higher for oil and gas companies, which mainly reflects the increasing wedge in the cost of equity. research has shown that equity market investors are more concerned about climate - related risks compared with investors in debt markets and tend to push carbon intensive industries towards using greener technologies. de haas, r. and popov, a. ( 2019 ), " finance and carbon emissions, " working paper series, no 2318, ecb, september. despite the higher profitability of the fossil fuel energy sector at the current juncture, the iea notes that high levels of policy uncertainty, difficulties to secure financing and a general reluctance to commit large amounts of capital limit the responsiveness of fossil fuel investment to higher prices. see the iea ’ s “ world energy investment 2022 ” report for more details. 37. there is mixed evidence on the effect of the green transition on fossil fuel investment. while the iea argues that net zero pledges so far have not been correlated with fossil fuel spending ( see the iea ’ s world energy outlook 2022 ), the imf has found a significant impact of the green transition on investment of oil and gas companies, although the impact following the paris agreement is still less important than the effect from lower oil prices in the same period ( see the imf ’ s world economic outlook 2022 ). 38. in response to the pandemic, opec + lowered production to support oil prices and after gradually restoring the oil supply to pre - pandemic levels, cut it again more recently. russia ’ s invasion of ukraine has aggravated supply shortages. 39. while in the short term european countries have sought to make up for the loss of russian gas with other fossil fuels

or the types of operations changed. looking ahead, we can already start thinking about a financial risk management framework that will be appropriate for a central bank that has returned to a more conventional environment for the conduct of monetary policy, while still following these principles. i now look forward to the panel discussions, which will pick up on some of those issues in more detail, and to hearing your views. 1 treaty on the functioning of the european union. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches
at the age of 4 and was raised by a single mom who cooked for a boarding house. neither of our parents had a formal education. but both were smart and ambitious for a better life. what did they do? they came to america. it was here that their family flourished. if you are ever tempted to doubt what hardworking immigrants bring to our shores and the power and moral imperative of a free economy or american - style democracy, think twice. only in america could two sons of a once - homeless beggar and the daughter of a boardinghouse cook become what you see here on this stage today : one the distinguished chairman of the board of trustees of bryant university, and the other a policymaker for the most important central bank in the world who is somehow deemed worthy of receiving an honorary doctorate and being chosen as speaker for the 151st commencement of this fine university. we are blessed to be americans. westbrook : surviving australia ’ s most sadistic reformatory, by william stokes, sydney, australia : macmillan by pan macmillan australia, 2010. bis central bankers ’ speeches the sages of the ages now, the only thing that stands between you and receiving your bryant degree is … me. i will speak quickly and take up just a few moments of your time before you celebrate your accomplishments. by now, you have taken enough writing courses to know the tongue - in - cheek definition of a good essay : it is a collection of other people ’ s thoughts disguised as your own! 2 most graduation speeches are no different. the standard routine for a commencement speaker is to dig through bartlett ’ s or the oxford dictionary of quotations or resort to google and wikiquote to find something said by some sage that will grace a graduation ceremony with a lesson students can take with them as they go off into this mysterious and challenging world. to find something profound that i might pinch for your amusement today, i pored over the sayings of the great minds through time : plato, socrates, mencius, muhammad, st. paul and st. augustine, voltaire, martin luther, mother teresa … miley cyrus, justin bieber. the maxims put forward by the sages of the ages are inspiring, but you already know them or you would not be where you are today : be disciplined ; be prepared ; be loyal and thrifty and brave ; always question conventional wisdom ; take risks ; push the envelope ; be true to yourself ; never promise more than you can deliver ; never

the class of 2014 will be standing at this very podium giving the commencement speech to some future generation of graduates and their thousands of supporters and admirers. and having the greatest pleasure a speaker can have : quoting your very own mom. congratulations, god bless you and good luck! thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches
may influence the real interest rate by adjusting nominal rates. before the onset of the financial crisis, the central bankers ’ handbook prescribed that if the economy was overheating and prices and wages were under upward pressure, the central bank should raise nominal interest rates above inflation expectations, thus tightening real rates and cooling down the economy. and vice versa, in a downturn, with falling prices and rising unemployment, it was thought that the central bank should cut nominal interest rates, thus reducing real rates and stimulating aggregate demand. conceptually, central bankers tried to keep real interest rates at a level — known as the “ natural rate of interest ” — that held gdp at its potential level and inflation stable at around its target. 7 the natural rate of interest cannot be observed directly and can only be estimated, with some degree of uncertainty, using econometric techniques. 8 according to available estimates, in recent decades the natural rate of interest appears to have progressively declined in the advanced economies. this is attributed to demographic factors, such as population ageing, or technological factors, such as lower productivity growth, which have changed the balance between the supply of savings and investment demand. in the case of the euro area, estimates even place the natural rate of interest at negative levels. 9 the concept, determinants and implications for monetary policy of the natural interest rate are discussed in depth in galesi et al. ( 2017 ). for example, holston et al. ( 2017 ) estimate that in 2016 the natural rate was positive, but very close to zero, in the united states. see, for example, fiorentini et al. ( 2018 ). consequently, to stabilise inflation, the real interest rates we currently observe in our economies need to be lower now than two or three decades ago. this would not be problematic if nominal rates could fall as far as necessary ; for example, with expected inflation of 1 %, to achieve a real interest rate of, let ’ s say, - 2 %, the nominal rate would have to be lowered to - 1 %. the problem is that nominal interest rates cannot drop as far into negative territory as is sometimes necessary. were central banks to set interest rates of - 5 %, for example, commercial banks would endure negative returns on the bulk of their assets, which would adversely affect their profitability and, ultimately, their financial intermediation capacity. this would have an attendant negative impact on the supply of credit, economic activity and inflation. there

##ity and sovereign equity need to be preserved to enable the various global challenges ahead to be addressed. notwithstanding this, the new economic, social and geopolitical realities call for a reform of multilateralism. we must work to adapt multilateral institutions to the new realities, eliminating obstacles that hinder collective action, making them more flexible, efficient, representative, transparent and accountable. they also need to become more cooperative and to better complement regional arrangements and institutions. thank you. 8 / 8
##pinning this above - average jobs performance has been above - average productivity growth in the region. so it is particularly appropriate to be here today at the materials processing institute, which has been a global centre for research on the iron and steel industry since 1945. the institute has contributed importantly to teesside having a high concentration of high value - added industries, such as chemicals and processing, which have boosted jobs and productivity in the region. today, i want today to discuss the economy, at both a national and regional level. i want to discuss what monetary policy can and, as importantly, cannot do to support the economy, nationally and regionally. and i will also touch on what role other policies might play in supporting growth, here in the north - east and nationally, in particular when it comes to boosting skills, innovation and productivity. a two - car economy i want to set the scene by describing an imaginary economy. now i know what you are thinking – typical economist, head in the clouds, aimlessly theorising without any grounding in the real world. but bear with me on this one, as i think my stylised economy might help in making sense of the real world to which i promise i will then return. this imaginary economy comprises, for simplicity sake, two regions - red car region and blue car region. these two regions have quite different economies. the economic make - up of their firms and households is bbc news october 2015, ‘ ssi redcar steelworks to be shut ’. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / publications / pages / speeches / default. aspx different in terms of their production processes and spending patterns. so too, as a result, is the level of activity, income and productivity in the two regions. red car region comprises a set of firms who make red cars. to do so their production processes rely on few machines and lots of workers. because there are few machines, the workers employed do not need especially high skills. and because firms employ lots of these lower - skilled workers, their levels of productivity – the number of cars produced per worker – is relatively low. households in red car region earn income from working in red car firms. because these firms have low productivity, they tend to pay low wages to these workers. and because, as a result, household incomes are low, workers can only afford to buy one red car and often having to borrow money from the bank

speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / publications / pages / speeches / default. aspx
aid in our understanding of inflation dynamics, it is also clear that such developments do not relieve central banks of their responsibility for maintaining price and economic stability.

a second possibility is that globalization has restrained unit labor costs by raising productivity. increasing volumes of trade should bolster productivity as economies concentrate their resources in those sectors in which they are relatively more efficient. but i have seen little direct evidence on the extent to which globalization may have boosted aggregate productivity growth in the united states in recent years. nevertheless, research at the board finds that multinational corporations, which may have the greater opportunities to realize efficiencies by shifting production locations, accounted for a disproportionate share of aggregate productivity growth in the late 1990s. 11 and some microeconomic studies have found a relationship between global engagement and productivity at the firm level. 12 thus, it seems possible that the persistently high growth rates of multifactor productivity in recent years may partly be due to the productivity - enhancing effects of globalization. in this regard, i would note that a potential shortcoming of my approach to assessing the effects of globalization on inflation is that these effects may be too recent to be captured adequately by the data. that is, it may be too soon for globalization to have generated statistically observable changes in the parameter estimates or structure of the standard inflation model. nonetheless, if the influence of globalization on inflation is as substantial as many claim, we might have expected the standard model to have had difficulty in predicting recent inflation trends. for example, if recent increases in world labor supply are restraining domestic unit labor costs to a significant degree or if there are other important influences on inflation that are related to globalization but difficult to quantify in the context of the standard model, we would expect to have seen sizable model errors over the past several years. again, the evidence points to some limited influence of globalization on u. s. inflation. if we use out - ofsample dynamic simulations of a model for core pce price inflation estimated from 1985 through the end of 2001, we find that, although the model overpredicts inflation over the past several years, the errors average only 0. 1 to 0. 2 percentage point per year, considerably less than one might have expected given the anecdotes in the popular press. in contrast, the forecast errors from a model of core cpi inflation are larger ( averaging roughly 1 / 2 to 1 percentage point per year since mid - 2001 ), perhaps suggestive of some influence from globalization. what do i conclude from all of this evidence? my own assessment is that, quite naturally, the greater integration of the u. s.