strong non - uk multinational sector, our assessment is that there would still be some positive growth in output this year and next even under a no - deal scenario, but materially lower than in the central forecast. a further mitigating factor is that the state of the public finances will permit the running of a counter - cyclical fiscal deficit through the operation of the automatic stabilisers on tax revenues and transfer payments. brexit and the financial system the scale and complexity of the irish financial system is increasing as a result of brexit. well over one hundred firms have applied for new authorisations or permission to expand their existing businesses. while some of these applications relate to firms that now plan to serve irish customers directly rather than through a uk entity, most of the volume is driven by exportorientated international firms that will serve eu27 customers from an irish base. our gatekeeping role is critically important in maintaining the integrity of the eu27 single market in financial services market and protecting consumers, whether resident in ireland or elsewhere in the eu27. it is imperative that any new firm authorised here meets the high standards that are expected of any entity authorised in the eu. equally, we have engaged closely within the single supervisory mechanism and the european supervisory authorities to ensure that similar regulatory and supervisory approaches are adopted across the eu27. more generally, within the framework laid out in legislation, the post - brexit eu will have to develop and implement a revised supervisory approach that recognises the shift in the geography of cross - border trade in financial services within the eu27, with less reliance on the uk as a bilateral trading partner and more reliance on newly - formed and expanded connections across eu27 member countries. in addition, in meeting their individual mandates, eu and non - eu regulators will have to work together in the supervision of large financial groups, in view of the ongoing intra - firm sharing of technology and services platforms and inter - linked balance sheets between eu entities and non - eu entities ( including uk entities ). a strategic priority for the central bank of ireland is to increase further our engagement in the relevant eu and international fora in order to contribute our own expertise in shaping this new agenda. this is a continuation of the substantial effort we have made since the international financial crisis in actively contributing to the shaping of international regulatory and supervisory standards. 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches on the basis of the work that we and others have undertaken, i am satisfied that the immediate cliff -

philip r lane : the brexit discontinuity speech by mr philip r lane, governor of the central bank of ireland, to the 2019 european financial forum, dublin, 13 february 2019. * * * introduction i am pleased to address the 2019 edition of the european financial forum. currently, both policy officials and private - sector participants in the global financial system are confronted with a combination of cyclical and structural concerns. at the cyclical level, the recent revision in global growth projections and the downside shift in the risk distribution require a careful assessment of the likely duration of adverse shocks and the potential offsetting impact of some mitigating stabilising factors : this exercise will be aided by the arrival of the incoming hard data on macroeconomic outcomes in the first months of 2019. at the structural level, longer - term prospects depend on the traditional determinants of global productivity ( such as investment and innovation rates ), the steady - state cross - country distribution of national income levels relative to the frontier and demographic trends. in addition, climate change ( together with the international policy response ) will exert an increasing influence on the path for global output. 1 however, both short - term and long - term prospects are currently also subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty about the paradigms governing policymaking. at the global level, the primary focus is on the future of the multilateral policy framework underpinning international trade. within europe, brexit constitutes another paradigmatic shift : the departure of the united kingdom from the european union represents a disruptive event across many dimensions, including the operation of the single market. a full analysis of such paradigmatic events requires a multi - field integrated approach that draws upon history, political science, international relations as well as economics and finance. i will not attempt such a comprehensive approach in this speech : rather, i will focus on some of the implications of brexit for the irish economy and the irish financial system. the central bank of ireland has been focused on brexit risks since the announcement of the 2016 uk referendum. our work has focused on ensuring that : ( i ) the risks to the irish economy and consumers are understood ; ( ii ) regulated firms prepare appropriately for all scenarios, in order to protect consumers ; ( iii ) where necessary, the required policy and legal adjustments are prepared to counteract the cliff - edge risks of a hard brexit to the delivery of vital financial services ; and ( iv ) we perform our gatekeeper