restrictive. others assume that these policies will be introduced too late or in a piecemeal and uncoordinated manner between different countries. this translates into different climate change impacts : a rise in global temperatures of 1. 1°c by 2100 under the most optimistic scenario, and by 2. 8°c under a more pessimistic one. [ left - hand chart ] according to ngfs estimates, this would have a negative impact on global gdp of 4 % to 6 % by 2030, and a negative impact of almost 14 % by 2050. 4 [ middle chart ] obviously, certain regions would be more affected than others. regarding inflation, under the'net zero in 2050'scenario, it would rise by almost 1. 5 percentage 2 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches points per year in europe within two years, and by almost 4. 5 percentage points per year in china. this scenario indicates a sharp short - term rise in inflation. the'delayed transition'scenario predicts that inflation will start trending upward around 2030 [ righthand chart ]. these scenarios will be updated by the ngfs between now and the end of the year ; the new version is expected to present even more severe economic mediumand long - term climate change impacts. this work on scenarios and models to incorporate the impacts of climate risks into the definition of a monetary policy stance that ensures price stability also goes hand in hand with efforts to adapt our operational framework for implementation purposes. consequently, working with the ecb, we are already in the process of greening our corporate bond purchase programme and adapting our collateral arrangements. we have taken these decisions not only because they reduce the exposure of our balance sheet to climate risk, and are therefore justified in the context of prudent management of the risks to which we ourselves are exposed, but also because they can influence the behaviour of our counterparties and act as a catalyst in the transition process to a green economy. 5 this will thereby enable us to contribute to protecting the environment, which is one of the secondary objectives of monetary policy set out in the european treaties. 2. financial stability and financial system supervision the banque de france and the autorite de controle prudentiel et de resolution ( acpr - prudential supervision and resolution authority ) have also been working to integrate sustainability issues – particularly climate, environmental and social issues – into their financial stability mission. [ slide 8 ] in its role as supervisor, the ac

##pr began a sustained dialogue with the financial community in 2015 in the wake of cop 21, focusing on how climate - related risks should be taken into account by the financial sector. this dialogue together with the analytical work performed by the acpr, particularly within the framework of the french law on energy transition for green growth ( ltecv ), culminated in good practices for climate - related and environmental risk management for banks. this pioneering guide, published by the acpr in 2020, is a reference for the thematic reviews that we have been conducting since last year with banking institutions not directly supervised by the ecb. it was adapted for insurance undertakings in 2022. at the same time, a climate stress testing pilot exercise was conducted in the banking and insurance sectors in 2020. we called it a'pilot'exercise because, once again, we were a pioneer among the main central banks and we showed the way by developing methodologies and raising awareness among banks and insurers of the need to strengthen their capacity to measure and anticipate the consequences of climate change. the acpr repeated this exercise in july 2023 for the insurance sector only and published its findings last may. these stress tests are important because they allow to assess the robustness of banks and insurers, and therefore their ability to finance and insure localities and regions 3 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches under adverse climate risk scenarios involving either extreme events or the implementation of policies to transition to a low - carbon economy. [ slide 9 ] driven by this conviction, the banque de france and the acpr made a major contribution to developing and conducting the first europe - wide climate stress testing exercise in 2022, by making their findings available to the ecb. they also played a major role in developing the scenario deployed by the three european supervisory authorities ( eba, eiopa and esma ) for conducting a stress test this year dedicated to assessing the transition risks associated with the'fit for 55'legislative package, which aims to reduce eu greenhouse gas emissions by 55 % between 1990 and 2030. as well as carrying out stress tests at european level, the ecb was also able to draw on the work of the acpr to develop its prudential expectations in terms of governance and management of climate - related risks. these expectations are closely monitored by the ecb, particularly through the supervisory review and evaluation process ( srep ), and must be fully met by the banks it supervises by the end of