will not be too different from the first half. but there will be some month - to - month volatility in economic activity and the composition of growth will shift somewhat. the trade - related cluster is showing tentative signs of stabilisation with improvement in certain segments. • the electronics industry, which recorded positive sequential growth in april and may, shows tentative signs of a patchy recovery. • the wholesale and sea transport sectors have benefitted from buoyant oil trade. the modern services cluster, which has been a key pillar of growth in the last few years, will see its contribution fall significantly in 2016. • financial services, which had grown much faster than the rest of the economy in the last four years, will see growth much closer to the overall economy. • professional services – like architectural and engineering services – which are more exposed to the uk and eu, will experience slower growth. • info - communication services will see a moderation in growth but will be supported by demand for productivity - enhancing it solutions in a restructuring economy. the domestic services cluster will continue to see modest growth. healthcare, education, and public infrastructure construction will be the better performing segments. the retail sector is likely to remain weak for the rest of the year, weighed down by sluggish consumer and business sentiments. the forecast of gdp growth in 2016 is 1. 0 – 3. 0 %. the ministry of trade and industry and mas are reviewing this range. inflation inflation, which has been low for long, is on a modest ascent. core inflation, which excludes accommodation costs and private road transport costs, is expected to rise gradually over the course of this year. core inflation bottomed - out in the fourth quarter last year and picked up to 0. 6 % in jan - may 2016. the drag from oil - related items will continue to diminish. the disinflationary effects of some budgetary and other one - off measures will dissipate. the pace of increase in inflation will be restrained, however, by benign external price pressures, reduced tightness in the labour market, and a more muted pass - through of business costs to consumer prices. bis central bankers ’ speeches for 2016, core inflation will likely average around 1. 0 % and trend towards its historical average of close to 2. 0 % over the course of 2017. likewise, headline inflation is expected to climb out of negative territory and move towards 1. 0 % next year. cpi - all items inflation fell to

ravi menon : mas ’ annual report 2015 / 16 remarks by mr ravi menon, managing director of the monetary authority of singapore, at mas ’ annual report 2015 / 16 media conference, singapore, 25 july 2016. * * * good morning. welcome to mas ’ annual report media conference. economic growth the global economy is headed for another year of lacklustre growth. recovery in the advanced economies is hesitant and uneven. economic activity is slowing in the emerging market economies. the imf has just released its latest projection for global gdp growth in 2016 – at 3. 1 %. this is the same as last year. mas is closely watching these developments, especially three factors that are key to the growth outcomes this year : one, brexit and its implications ; two, the shape of the recovery in the us economy ; and three, slowdown in the chinese economy. the uk referendum vote to exit the eu will have an impact along several dimensions : first, on financial markets and possible consequences for financial stability ; two, on investment and gdp growth in the uk, with potential spill - overs to the eu and beyond ; and three, on political and social developments, and what they mean for globalisation. brexit ’ s impact has been most keenly felt so far in the financial markets. this is to be expected as prices need to adjust to reflect the new reality of a uk that is outside the eu. so, exchange rates, bond yields, and equity prices have all seen sharp movements as markets search for a new equilibrium. uncertainty prevails over exactly when and how brexit will take place ; we can expect recurrent bouts of market volatility in the months ahead. central banks across the world have said they will do what it takes to safeguard financial stability and maintain smooth functioning of their markets. we expect the global financial system to stay resilient, given ample liquidity and the generally stronger balance sheets of banks. but the uk economy is expected to take a hit and there will be some fallout on the eu. uncertainty, especially over the terms of the uk ’ s exit from the eu and its future access to eu markets, will weigh on business confidence and investment spending. growth in the eu will be weighed down by brexit, on account of its significant trade and financial linkages with the uk. this in turn is likely to have a small dampening effect on global growth. the political and social implications of brexit could have more significant economic consequences