##irs. brooks, ray ( 2004 ). " labor market performance and prospects, " in eswar prasad, ed., china's growth and integration into the world economy : prospects and challenges. washington : international monetary fund, pp. 51 - 61. dunaway, steven, lamin leigh, and xiangming li ( 2006 ). " how robust are estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates : the case of china, " imf working paper 06 / 220. washington : international monetary fund, october. frankel, jeffrey a., and david romer ( 1999 ). " does trade cause growth? " american economic review, vol. 89 ( june ), pp. 379 - 99. goldstein, morris ( 2004 ). " adjusting china's exchange rate policies, " paper presented at the international monetary fund's seminar on china's foreign exchange system, held in dalian, china, may 26 - 27. goodfriend, marvin, and eswar prasad ( 2006 ). " a framework for independent monetary policy in china, " imf working paper, 06 / 111. washington : international monetary fund, may. hoffman, bert, and louis kuijs ( 2006 ). " profits drive china's boom, " far eastern economic review, vol. 169 ( october ), pp. 39 - 43. kuijs, louis ( 2005 ). " investment and saving in china, " world bank policy research paper 3633. washington : world bank, june. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ( 2006 ). " how will china's saving - investment balance evolve? " world bank policy research paper 3958. washington : world bank, july. lardy, nicholas r. ( 2002 ). integrating china into the global economy. washington : brookings institution press. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ( 2006 ). " china : toward a consumption - driven growth path, " policy briefs in international economics, p806 - 6. washington : institute for international economics, october. national bureau of statistics of china ( 2006 ). china statistical yearbook, 25th ed., china statistics press. sachs, jeffrey d., and andrew m. warner ( 1995 ). " economic convergence and economic policies, " brookings papers on economic activity, 1995 : 1, pp. 1 - 95. shan, weijian ( 2006 ). " the world bank's china delusions, " far

the fed ’ s accommodative monetary policies. and credit availability to both households and small businesses has improved. in recent months, as i noted earlier, there has been some softness in the economic data. recent indicators of both household spending and business investment have slowed, and industrial output has declined. the commerce department ’ s initial estimate was that real gross domestic product was nearly flat in the first quarter of 2015. if confirmed by further estimates, my guess is that this apparent slowdown was largely the result of a variety of transitory factors that occurred at the same time, including the unusually cold and snowy winter and the labor disputes at ports on the west coast, both of which likely disrupted some economic activity. and some of this apparent weakness may just be statistical noise. i therefore expect the economic data to strengthen. all of that said, the headwinds facing our economy have not fully abated, and, as such, i expect that continued growth in employment and output will be moderate over the remainder of the year and beyond. despite the recovery i noted in home prices and a greater number of home sales, residential construction activity remains quite low. i mentioned the ongoing issues with mortgage credit, but more generally, many years of a weak job market and slow wage gains seem to have induced many people to double - up on housing, and many young adults continue to live with their parents. population growth is creating a need for more housing, whether to rent or to own, and i do expect that continuing job and wage gains will encourage more people to form new households. nevertheless, activity in the housing sector is likely to improve only gradually. the pace of business investment has also been only modest during this recovery, and some of the reasons might persist a while longer. businesses seem not to have had sufficient confidence in the strength and durability of the recovery to undertake substantial capital expenditures. moreover, some analysts have suggested that uncertainty, not only about the strength of the recovery but also about economic policy, could be a significant factor. and the fact that many businesses seem to be holding large amounts of cash may suggest that risk aversion is playing a role. weak investment in the energy sector is also likely to persist. this represents the negative side to the fall in oil prices, one being felt by the oil - producing regions of the country. new domestic oil drilling has plunged over the past few months, and we have also seen a slowdown in activity in sectors that supply oil production companies,