the significant costs and risks associated with a rapidly rising federal debt, our nation should soon put in place a credible plan for reducing deficits to sustainable levels over time. doing so earlier rather than later will not only help maintain the u. s. government ’ s credibility in financial markets, thereby holding down interest costs, but it will also ultimately prove less disruptive by avoiding abrupt shifts in policy and by giving those affected by budget changes more time to adapt. conclusion the path forward contains many difficult tradeoffs and choices, but postponing those choices and failing to put the nation ’ s finances on a sustainable long - run trajectory would ultimately do great damage to our economy. i thank the members of the commission for their willingness to serve and urge them to demonstrate to the american people that serious, wellintentioned citizens can come together to craft credible and sustainable solutions to our budgetary challenges.

of other assets. to put this easing into perspective, from july to the end of october, the yield on the ten - year treasury increased about 1 percentage point. since the fomc's last meeting, which ended november 1, the ten - year rate has fallen six tenths of a percentage point. longterm interest rates are still higher than they were before the middle of the year, and overall financial conditions are tighter, which should be putting downward pressure on household and business spending. but the recent loosening of financial conditions is a reminder that many factors can affect these conditions and that policymakers must be careful about relying on such tightening to do our job. the october data i have cited on economic activity and inflation are consistent with the kind of moderating demand and easing price pressure that will help move inflation back to 2 percent, and i will be looking to see that confirmed in upcoming data releases. before the next fomc meeting we will get data on pce inflation and job openings, and a job report and supply manager's survey for november. cpi inflation will come out on december 12, the first day of the fomc meeting. all of that data will tell us whether inflation and aggregate demand are continuing to move in the right direction and inflation is on a path to our 2 percent goal. 1 see christopher j. waller ( 2023 ), " something's got to give, " speech delivered at the distinguished speaker seminar, european economics and financial center, london, october 18. the views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the federal open market committee. 4 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches 2 see board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2023 ), statistical release g. 17, " industrial production and capacity utilization " ( november 16 ). 3 after job creation in september was initially reported as 336, 000, it was later revised down to 297, 000. 4 the survey is available on the nfib's website at https : / / www. nfib. com / surveys / small - business - economic - trends / 5 the pace of increase in asking rents and rents on new lease contracts - which do reflect contemporaneous rental market conditions - slowed since early 2022. this moderation has put downward pressure on shelter inflation this year, which should continue going forward. 6 see maximiliano a. dvorkin and maggie isaacson ( 2022 ), " recent trends