are potentially meaningful in quantitative terms. these shocks are likely to reflect a variety of structural factors which may differ as to how, and to what extent, they affect inflation over time. collectively, however, they are likely to explain part of the protracted weakness in inflation. i would like to discuss two such structural factors and their potential implications for the ecb ’ s mediumterm horizon. the first factor relates to changes in the energy sector, in particular the pervasive effects of the shale oil revolution and changes to the transmission of oil price shocks. and the second factor relates to the pricing behaviour of firms and their ability to buffer cost - push shocks through changes in their profit margins. the changing role of energy in inflation dynamics the rise in energy prices was a prime contributor to euro area hicp inflation before the outbreak of the global financial crisis. chart 6 marked fall in the contribution of energy to headline inflation shares of the main hicp aggregates in average hicp inflation ( percentage ) source : eurostat and ecb calculations it accounted, on average, for 23 % of headline inflation in the ten years from 1999 to 2008. since then, the contribution of energy has fallen to 14 %, on average. and over the past five years, the average contribution has dropped to zero. so the measurable and persistent decline in the contribution of energy prices to inflation has been one major source of low inflation in recent years. what is less clear, however, are the causes of the fall in the contribution of energy price inflation and whether the effects can be expected to persist in the future. energy inflation has so far been predominantly driven by the price of oil, which fluctuates in line with supply and demand. for monetary policy, the distinction between supply and demand matters much along the same lines i described before. falling oil prices, for example, are often a symptom of a broader weakness in global aggregate demand, in which case they send important signals for monetary policy in real time. since about 2014, however, model - based analysis has suggested that the predominant source of the decline in oil prices is likely to reflect supply - side factors. chart 7 a overhang in oil inventories weighing on oil prices oil price decomposition ( cumulative contributions to changes in oil price since january 2010 ; oil price in usd per barrel ) source : bloomberg, haver analytics, iea and ecb staff calculations. notes : the decomposition is derived from a monthly structural bvar model with sign restrictions. the

he was a pioneer in the field of central banking in malaysia, and his visionary leadership laid the groundwork for many of the institutions that we have today. tun was known to be a man of principles – in particular, trustworthiness and integrity. his relentless pursuit of excellence and formidable intellect were matched by a deep sense of purpose to serve the country. risk assessment under knightian uncertainty we as policymakers find ourselves navigating an era marked by unprecedented global uncertainties. while monetary policy has always involved some level of uncertainty, recent macroeconomic trends including the ongoing technological breakthroughs coming from machine learning and artificial intelligence, and the shifting geopolitical dynamics have amplified this uncertainty. this compels us to reassess our approach to monetary policy and increase the focus on risk assessments, for this to be prioritised at the forefront to support informed and effective decision - making. in this context, i would 2 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches like to revisit the concept of knightian uncertainty2. the concept indicates that there is a critical distinction between risk and uncertainty. risk presents uncertainties with known and measurable probabilities. uncertainty on the other hand, is characterised by unknown and unquantifiable probabilities of occurring. accounting for both risk and uncertainty in policymaking is critical to ensure we are able to address macroeconomic challenges effectively. in facing these uncertainties, malaysia is no different from the rest of the world. the structural trends that i outlined earlier have resulted in an environment where conventional economic models struggle to offer us insights. these unknown and unquantifiable uncertainties pose a formidable challenge to policymaking. to better navigate these challenges and uncertainties, we continue to explore frontier methods and go beyond conventional approach. we have to diversify our surveillance methods. for instance, we have our regional offices to conduct on - the - ground surveillance and actively engage with relevant industries. we also use high - frequency data to assess the state of the economy and spend a great deal of time filtering the noises from such data. bnm's approach to monetary policy remains data - driven and forward - looking. to this end, we continue to closely monitor the balance of risks surrounding our domestic inflation and growth outlook, and will ensure that our monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable growth amid price stability. monetary policy in a post - globalisation environment the early 1990s saw the world enter an era of " hyperglobalisation " where