have been observed, such as in china ( chart 3 ). business sentiment in the manufacturing sector in the september tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in japan ) has become clearly cautious, reflecting weakness in external demand and related production. as for the outlook, external demand is likely to continue to show some weakness for the time being due to the delay in the timing of a pick - up in overseas economies. on the other hand, domestic demand has remained firm. in the september tankan, business sentiment of the nonmanufacturing sector has maintained a relatively high level. among components of domestic demand, business fixed investment has continued on an uptrend ( chart 4 ). business fixed investment plans in the september tankan were steady, exceeding the average of past september surveys. specifically, while machinery investment has been somewhat weak in the manufacturing sector due to the effects of the slowdown in overseas economies, it has remained steady in the nonmanufacturing sector. in the nonmanufacturing sector, not only machinery investment but also software investment has seen an acceleration in its growth pace, reflecting strong demand for saving labor and improving efficiency. research and development ( r & d ) investment has maintained its pace of increase in a wide range of industries, including those related to exports. construction investment also has continued on an uptrend, mainly on the back of urban development projects and the construction of logistics facilities accompanying the spread of e - commerce. with regard to the outlook, business fixed investment is projected to see a temporary deceleration in its pace of increase, mainly in the manufacturing sector, reflecting the effects of the slowdown in overseas economies. however, amid accommodative financial conditions, it is expected to continue increasing moderately thereafter, mainly for investments that are relatively less susceptible to the effects of changes in overseas demand, such as investment for urban development projects, labor - saving investment, and r & d investment for growth areas. such steady business fixed investment seems to be attributable to changes in firms'behavior, which has become positive in terms of taking future business opportunities and addressing long - term challenges because the moderate expanding trend in japan's economy has continued for a few years and a sustained decline in prices is no longer observed. private consumption has increased moderately ( chart 5 ). the impact of the consumption tax hike is likely to be smaller than that of the previous tax hike in 2014, mainly because the net burden on households is small and various

our best to reduce uncertainty about future monetary policy conditions, at least out to the horizon that it is prudent to do so. the consistency, credibility and clarity of the riga decisions was reinforced by the fact that they were agreed unanimously, demonstrating strong cohesion within the governing council. in this divisive world, in this divisive europe - unfortunately, on tough issues like migration this cohesion was our shared responsibility and duty to protect the common good of 340 million europeans : their currency, the euro. they support it at an overwhelming majority of page 3 sur 5 74 % - confirmed in the spring 2018 eurobarometer, with an increasing majority in italy. this confidence in the euro obliges us to act together. i would like here to welcome another recent positive commitment from political leaders : the franco - german agreement in meseberg. the message is clear and threefold : i. the eurozone needs, besides monetary union, a strengthening of the economic union. if not, monetary policy would remain the only game in town, and be at risk of being overburdened by the next recession. ii. economic union needs public risk sharing – an enhanced esm and a euro - zone budget – as well as private risk sharing. let me also stress this one, adding banking union – with a fully credible resolution mechanism – and capital market union. cmu – which we strongly advocate with president jens weidmann and the whole governing council - fortunately is in the declaration too, with a commitment to realise “ decisive progress ”. iii. europe needs a franco - german impetus. both countries took their responsibility, still on time. it is now up to the 19 to elaborate a common and operational package. the euro - zone should seize this moment : it ’ s now or never. ii. policy - induced uncertainty the global and european economy is confronted by two possible policy shocks : trade and fiscal policy. since we are currently enjoying the world cup, it seems appropriate to call these policy - induced own goals. rise in protectionism the first of these is the risk to the global trading system of the rise in protectionism. the initial measures announced so far by the united states and then china only cover about 1 % of global imports and should have limited direct effects on inflation and activity. but they have logically triggered retaliation by other countries or regions and the risk of an escalating and global trade war is no longer unthinkable. the classical analysis of the macro