the respective authors are responsible for the content of these papers. therefore, they do not necessarily reflect the view of the ecb or the eurosystem. through this and other channels, there is a professional dialogue and exchange of views between ecb staff and many outside experts, which is of mutual benefit. several econometric models have already been published in the working paper series of the ecb. for example, an econometric study of the demand for m3 in the euro area conducted by ecb staff members was published in september 1999. other models will be published in the near future. an “ area - wide model ” used at the ecb, which models the aggregate behaviour of the euro area economy, will be published in this working paper series by ecb staff, probably at the end of this year or in the course of next year. 3. issues related to banking supervision and payment systems i should now like to turn to the contribution of the escb to the maintenance of financial stability and to prudential supervision. in this regard i should like to mention the banking supervision committee ( bsc ), which is promoting cooperation between the ecb, the national central banks and the supervisory authorities of the 15 member states. the main focus of activity of the bsc is the analysis of structural developments and the monitoring of potential vulnerabilities in the banking sector. the bsc also provides the forum for the exchange of relevant information between the eurosystem and the supervisory authorities. finally, the bsc may also act as a forum for supervisory cooperation not related to the tasks of the eurosystem. in the latter respect, i should like to stress that the need for multilateral cooperation among banking supervisors has increased since the establishment of economic and monetary union ( emu ) for two reasons. first, emu has introduced an unprecedented geographical separation between the area of jurisdiction of monetary policy and that of prudential supervision. second, the introduction of the euro has fostered further integration of the banking and financial sector. against this background, i perceive the bsc as the main forum in which multilateral cooperation among banking supervisors can be enhanced. regarding the issue of cross - border retail payments, which has been raised by the european parliament on various occasions, i should like to recall that, in september 1999, the ecb published a report entitled “ improving retail cross - border payment systems - the eurosystem ’ s view ”. the report called on the banking sector to provide substantially improved services by 2002.

as suggested in your draft resolution, has to be considered against this background. we clearly do not want to blur the ecb ’ s focus on the euro area as a whole. the draft resolution also calls for the publication of macroeconomic forecasts by the ecb. in this context, let me reassure you that preparations for publication continue in earnest. i still envisage that publication of forecasts will commence towards the end of 2000, in line with the statement i made last september at the european parliament ’ s plenary session on the previous ecb annual report. i should like, however, to sound a note of caution. forecasts are only one input into the decisions of the governing council. forecast publication by the ecb should not be viewed as a panacea which will meet all the communication challenges faced by the ecb as a new institution in a testing multilingual and multinational environment. forecasts themselves have important shortcomings - for example, they are surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may quickly become outdated if the external environment changes. we are aware of these shortcomings. therefore, as is made clear in the ecb ’ s monetary policy strategy, monetary policy decisions cannot be made only on the basis of a central inflation forecast. rather, it is the comprehensive analysis of the monetary and macroeconomic situation and of the economic disturbances affecting the euro area economy which is the relevant input to forward - looking policy decisions. the ecb ’ s approach to communication has always placed a premium on honesty. to continue in this vein, it is my view that we must publish forecasts in a manner which accurately reflects their limited role in policy decisions and the uncertainties inherent in them. any other approach would not be transparent and would therefore be potentially misleading. let me now turn to a related issue, namely the publication of the ecb ’ s economic and econometric models. i should make clear that the ecb does not rely on a single econometric model, but rather uses an extensive set of models. the results obtained from the models are critically evaluated using expert judgement. policy - makers use analysis undertaken using models developed by the ecb staff, in some cases with input from staff of national central banks, as one input, among others, into their policy assessments and decisions. the ecb has established a working paper series where technical economic research produced, inter alia, under the responsibility of ecb staff can be reviewed and assessed by the public and external professional experts.