2. 2 %. second, when looking forward from now until the early part of 2003, although recent developments in oil prices have lowered short - term price pressures, there are still some factors that could keep annual inflation rates above 2 % for several months to come. yet this short - term outlook is related both to base effects and to indirect taxes and administered prices, i. e. to temporary developments. third, when looking beyond the short term, we consider that both the overall economic environment and the euro exchange rate, which has strengthened since early this year, will contribute further towards reducing inflationary pressure. moreover, we expect the indirect effects of previous increases in oil prices and other factors to further unwind. although wage - related risks remain in place, they are judged less likely to materialise as long as the economic environment does not change substantially. the assessment which guided today's monetary policy decision was that, overall, the prospect has strengthened for inflation to fall below 2 % in the course of 2003 and to remain in line with price stability thereafter. our decision should also help to improve the outlook for the euro area economy by providing a counterweight to some of the existing downside risks to economic growth, thereby supporting confidence. the most likely scenario is that economic growth will gradually recover in the course of 2003 towards rates more in line with potential. falling inflation should support real disposable income and, together with a reduction in the gap between perceived and actual inflation rates, should underpin private consumption. moreover, we expect an improvement in world demand. this, and the low level of interest rates, should benefit investment. let me point out that, with today's decision, the key ecb interest rates have reached a very low level by historical standards. the governing council will continue to monitor closely all factors that may affect the prospects for inflation in the euro area. the outlook for the euro area economy will also very much depend on visible progress in other policy areas. regarding fiscal policies in the euro area, i would like to reiterate that budgetary discipline strengthens the conditions for sustainable growth of gdp and employment. therefore, sound fiscal positions, as enshrined in the treaty and further developed in the stability and growth pact, are in the interest of all the member states. given the disappointing fiscal developments in some countries and the challenges which have emerged to the eu fiscal framework, we welcome the moves to correct or prevent excessive deficits, i. e. the implementation of

), pp. 1449 - 75 or s. morris and h. s. shin, “ social value of public information ”, american economic review, 2002, 92 ( 5 ), pp. 1521 - 1534. policies. easy access to information also allows investors to better differentiate across economies, borrowers and companies. ultimately, this helps to lessen herding behaviour and contagion when market volatility increases. this is why transparency is so crucial. and in recent years, a lot of progress has been made to enhance transparency and to facilitate access to information as well as its dissemination to market participants. i give you one example. ten years ago, the nature of economic and financial data and the way they were reported varied significantly across countries. even simple concepts, such as debt, could be understood very differently around the world. this severely constrained our ability to compare financial vulnerability across countries. but thanks to work carried out at the imf, the special standards for dissemination of economic and financial data have become a widely recognised benchmark to which a large and increasing number of countries adhere. of course, there are still areas where more work needs to be done. one of them, for instance, is the reporting to the imf on the currency composition of countries ’ foreign exchange reserves. but overall, things are moving in the right direction. adopting good practices is a second principle which should continue to guide our efforts in reforming the governance of the world economy in macroeconomic and financial matters. here again, there have been a number of achievements. a large array of standards and codes for macroeconomic and data transparency, banking supervision, corporate governance, accounting, and payment and settlement systems have been subject to international agreements. such standards bring together what is widely considered as good practice or guidelines in a particular domain. they enhance domestic and international stability. in this respect, the imf and the financial stability forum – the only forum for cooperation among national and international entities in charge of supervision – have singled out 12 of these standards as being of particular importance for a sound and stable economic and financial system. but the work of the international community has gone beyond standard - setting. it now also focuses on implementation. progress has been made towards publicly examining countries ’ compliance with standards and codes. and there is one important lesson that we can draw from this experience. the international community does not always need to rely on rules and unilateral enforcement to make progress on certain fronts. goodwill and, at times