act : a memoir of a crisis and its aftermath ( new york : w. w. norton ), p. 532. see feroli and others, “ language after liftoff, ” in note 1, p. 29. board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2015 ), “ federal reserve issues fomc statement, ” press release, september 17, paragraph 2. bis central bankers ’ speeches increase from 38 percent to 50 percent. 14 the october and november non - farm payroll reports came in strong and above expectations, raising that probability by the time of the december meeting to about 90 percent. in other words, the committee used modest time - based guidance to set the stage and then let incoming data do the heavy lifting. in the statement released after the fomc ’ s most recent meeting in january, the committee said that, in evaluating future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, it would “ assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. ” 15 15 this language shows that the committee has moved away from the time - based guidance of the crisis years. although time - based guidance can create communications challenges, i see other factors as having been more important in recent years. in particular, the challenge of deciding when and how to use unconventional tools – and ultimately when and how to reduce that usage – is a great one. the task of communicating clearly about those decisions is equally great. and the reality of the fomc ’ s size and diversity, not to mention uncertainty about the evolving structure of the economy and the effects of monetary policy actions, means that we are still far from the ideal world of a fully worked out, clearly specified and transparent consensus on what economists call a “ reaction function ” – a complete description of how policy will respond to changes in economic conditions. often when communicating about the path of policy, it will be hard to avoid a combination of the two forms of guidance. for example, the committee has embraced the view that the equilibrium level of the federal funds rate is currently below its pre - crisis level and expects the funds rate to return only gradually to its longer - run value. 16 this view is a key aspect of many committee participants ’ reaction functions, including mine. try saying that without referring to time. the authors acknowledge that the distinction between rules and discretion is too simple to capture the problems that monetary policymakers face. 17 i would say the same of the distinction between time -

benjamin e diokno : keynote speech – 2nd philippines - singapore business and investment summit keynote speech by mr benjamin e diokno, governor of bangko sentral ng pilipinas ( bsp, the central bank of the philippines ), at the 2nd philippines - singapore business and investment summit ; manila 25 march 2021. * * * philippine ambassador to singapore joseph del mar yap, ambassadors francis chua and benedicto yujuico of the philippine chamber of commerce and industry, my fellow philippine government officials, and all the participants of the 2nd philippines - singapore business and investment summit, a pleasant day to all of you. i ’ m glad to know that this event is now on its second year. it shows the interest among singapore - based audience to learn more about the philippines. the covid - 19 pandemic caused unprecedented health, economic, and social crisis globally. for the philippines, we entered the crisis in a position of strength. we were armed with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, which were a result of over 20 years of structural reforms. with ample monetary and fiscal space, crisis - response measures were implemented swiftly and decisively. together with the national government, the bangko sentral ng pilipinas implemented crucial measures to mitigate the pandemic ’ s impact on livelihoods and the economy. the bsp has so far injected php2. 0 trillion ( usd42 billion ) in liquidity to the financial system, equivalent to 11 percent of the country ’ s gdp. our unprecedented measures fell under three categories : first were measures to boost market confidence, such as cuts in the policy rate and the reserve requirement ( rr ). second were extraordinary liquidity measures, such as provisional advances to the national government and purchases of government securities in the secondary market. third were regulatory and operational relief measures to sustain the stability of the financial system and ensure access to financial services at a critical time. for instance, we counted loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises ( msmes ) as compliance to the reserve requirement, increased the single borrower ’ s limit, and raised the limit for real - estate loans. that said, the bsp recognizes that the timing for the unwinding of our response measures is crucial. we will carry out disengagement strategies in a manner that avoids risks associated with early or late implementation. now is the right time to talk about “ disengagement strategies ” because the world — the philippines included — is in the recovery phase