important risks remain around this outlook. the three main upside risks to the inflation outlook are higher commodity prices, a stronger - than - anticipated recovery in the u. s. economy, and the possibility of greater - than - projected momentum in the canadian household sector. these upside risks are balanced by three downside risks relating to canada ’ s international competitiveness, global growth prospects, and the possibility of a more pronounced correction in the canadian housing market. these risks are balanced. on 19 october 2010, the bank maintained the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. this leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in canada. at this time of transition in the global recovery, with a weaker u. s. outlook, constraints beginning to moderate growth in emerging - market economies, and domestic considerations that are expected to slow consumption and housing activity in canada, any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered. with that, tiff and i would be pleased to take your questions.

kicks off a new initiative — another step in our ongoing efforts to help canadians better understand our actions and decisions as canada ’ s central bank. now, let me begin. global and canadian economic developments the canadian economy is progressing well. following a decade of many setbacks, 2017 was a year of robust economic growth — 3 per cent for the year as a whole. after many years in which the growth was uneven, it has become more balanced. 1 / 9 bis central bankers'speeches the material slack that existed in the economy, and especially in the labour market, has been largely absorbed. inflation is running close to our target rate of 2 per cent. while the future is subject to some notable uncertainties, which i ’ ll discuss, trends over the past few quarters have been quite encouraging. the trends have been broad - based across regions and sectors, but these favourable economic conditions are particularly evident in some parts of canada, including british columbia. global developments of course, canada is a very open economy, and its growth is supported by what is now a synchronous global expansion. this too is encouraging. we are now seeing solid growth not only in the united states and china but also in europe, as well as in many other emerging - market economies. the us economy has been on a path of mostly solid growth and job creation for a few years. at the beginning of 2018, the data indicated stronger momentum for the united states, and the tax cuts announced just before christmas were expected to boost demand further. developments since then have largely supported this story. us economic growth remained robust, at an annual pace of 2. 5 per cent during the fourth quarter of 2017, and the us economy is essentially at full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17 - year low. wage growth has also edged up in recent months. meanwhile, us business confidence remains high. and increases in government spending legislated in february are likely to provide a further boost in the next couple of years. the us economic picture still has upside potential. the current expansion could create a virtuous circle, triggering “ animal spirits ” among businesses and consumers and driving even faster growth than expected. if that happened, stronger business investment and household spending in the united states would likely benefit our economy. so, as always, we are watching developments in the united states closely. on that note, we saw some sharp movements in us and global stock markets a few weeks ago, ushering in increased market volatility