warning systems and systemic risk indicators further. many of the tools it developed are already used in escb members ’ policy work. for example, the composite indicator of systemic stress ( short ciss ), 3 which was developed here at the ecb, has been used in our financial stability review and has now been included in the new risk dashboard that the esrb released after its last meeting in september. 4 research in this direction has also led to the creation of a homogeneous database of various types of crisis in eu countries. this database, which was established by researchers from the czech national bank with the input of all escb members, has just been made available to interested researchers on the ecb ’ s website. 5 a last major orientation of mars is the assessment of contagion risks. this concerns particularly the cross - border connectedness of banks and associated contagion risks in europe, notably via dysfunctional money markets. in view of the experiences of the last few years in europe, sovereign contagion effects received considerable attention. a whole “ battery ” of models and analytical tools for measuring and assessing sovereign contagion was developed. several of these models are regularly run here in the ecb as part of our surveillance of contagion risks. tobias adrian, paolo colla and h. song shin ( 2012 ), “ which financial frictions? parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007 – 2009 ”, federal reserve of new york staff reports. see d. hollo, m. kremer and m. lo duca ( 2011 ), ciss – a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system, ecb working paper, no. 1426, march. european systemic risk board ( 2012 ), esrb risk dashboard, issue ( http : / / www. esrb. europa. eu / pub / pdf / dashboard / 120920 _ esrb _ risk _ dashboard. pdf? ). the link to the database is http : / / www. ecb. europa. eu / pub / pdf / scpwps / ecbwp1485 - annexes. zip. no 1, 20 september bis central bankers ’ speeches the assessment of contagion risk is one field where borrowing from disciplines other than economics can be useful. a number of promising efforts use the theory of complex networks to model interbank exposures, showing how asset fire sales can amplify interbank contagion. for our financial stability review and in

philip r lane : interview with yle interview with mr philip r lane, member of the executive board of the european central bank, and yle ( finnish public service broadcasting company ), conducted by mr aapo parviainen and broadcast on 1 july 2019. * * * what are the alternatives to fight for the euro when recession hits the euro area next time? what i said today at the conference is the ecb has been creative in developing a toolkit, moving the interest rate below zero, being active in purchasing government debts, special lending programmes for banks and also communicating about future policies. taken together this has worked quite well, it ’ s worked quite well so far and i ’ m confident if there is a downturn more can be done. so if you like the main conclusion of my talk today is that we should be confident that even under these conditions the ecb has the policy measures to allow it to respond to shocks to the economy, shocks to inflation. being a central bank is a very powerful institution, the ability to influence financial conditions is quite extensive and so we should be confident about the effectiveness of our policies at the ecb. do we have to accept these negative interest rates looking forward? i think we should view this as a temporary measure. the negative interest rate allows more spending by firms, more spending by households. by allowing the european economy to grow more quickly when the economy has recovered then the interest rate will turn positive again. so not forever but for a while. can you give a time estimation? it depends on what happens, as you know the world is quite uncertain, we have a baseline forecast which remains optimistic for europe but we recognise there are downside risks. what about inflation then? it ’ s far from target. well i think we have to take a measured approach. compared to say 2014 there ’ s been a good recovery of inflation, so compared to the risk in 2014 year by year inflation is moving upwards. but as you say it ’ s still not yet at the objective level. so we continue to have a lot of accommodation and we have said that if there are further negative shocks, we can do more. so i think it ’ s important to be in the middle, inflation is recovering, we expect it to continue to recover but the job is not over. but there is no need to change the target? the target is, i think, not at the centre of any issue right now. at the centre right now are the shocks