year of restrictions, as well as social and economic difficulties. for 2020, the imf forecasted a contraction of real gdp in europe of 7 percent, the biggest contraction after world war ii. thanks to the extraordinary policy response, even more dramatic consequences have been avoided. i understand that the full extent of the pandemic ’ s impact on companies in 2020 is yet to be revealed as time passes and more data becomes available. i agree that long - lasting changes in the structure of the economy will occur, even though they are hard to predict at this moment. moving forward, a better policy calibration is needed in order to weather these structural changes and banks should put in place arrangements for restructuring the debt of those firms that can be saved, while facilitating the orderly exit of those firms that are unlikely to succeed in the postpandemic economy. the uncertainties remain extremely high and further delays in the economic recovery will put more pressure on the public resources and complicate the trade - offs in their reallocation. however, i would like to end on a more optimistic note and say that we do hope for a swift 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches recovery as we continue to do our part in curbing the effects of the pandemic. with these in mind, i wish ms laura valderrama success with her presentation on the results of the analysis of corporate vulnerabilities and a very fruitful discussion to all the panelists and guests. mr kammer you have the floor. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

approaching real convergence not as a race where the fastest track is also the right one, but rather as a complex process giving the steady runner ( a marathoner rather than a sprinter ) the opportunity to reap most of the potential benefits, while avoiding excessive risks. speaking about risks, it is worth noting that relatively sizeable current account and fiscal deficits may erode the very foundation of this edifice that is the national economy. it is therefore much wiser to adjust them in a gradual manner than leave market forces to cause a sudden correction. fiscal discipline, consistent economic policies and an ambitious, yet viable, calendar should make a successful euro adoption possible, so that the economy adequately withstand competitive pressures within the euro area. equally important is to reduce the still overly large disparities across romania ’ s development regions, as it takes the entire country to join the euro area, not only bucharest and ilfov county. economic growth is not enough, it should be accompanied by lasting economic development. before ending my speech, instead of my personal view about the future, let me quote a recent column in financial times by tony barber 2 relevant for the state of affairs in the region : “ nevertheless all is not well in the region. why? one reason lies in the model that western governments in the 1990s prescribed for the east ’ s transition to free - market democracy. as it shed its communist past, the east was told to embrace not just liberal democracy but globalisation, open borders and the lightly regulated financial capitalism that the west viewed as the touchstone of its own economic success. this model ’ s flaws were exposed in the 2008 financial crisis and the european refugee and migrant emergency of 2015 – 16. [ … ] eu membership, too, has brought more pluses than minuses. access to the single market, regional aid and, from ordinary people ’ s viewpoint, europe - wide freedom of movement are cherished gains. [ … ] this resentment has much to do with the western model grafted on to the east. in 1989, as during europe ’ s 1848 revolutions, the people wanted civic freedoms and, in many cases, liberation from foreign overlords and their first independent states of modern times. but after 1989 the adoption of the western model — complete with eu membership, global capitalism and a liberal political philosophy — created tensions between liberalism allied to internationalism and the assertion of a newly acquired national sovereignty. [ … ] now central and eastern europe is experiencing its own contest between populist