), laubach and williams ( 2015 ), and johannsen and mertens ( 2016 ). see hamilton and others ( 2015 ), del negro and others ( 2015 ), and chapter 3 of world economic outlook ( international monetary fund, 2014 ). while the empirical link between potential growth and the neutral rate is not precisely estimated, the evidence suggests that slower trend growth is associated with lower interest rates ; see laubach and williams and hamilton and others ( 2015 ). u. s. labor force growth has slowed from 1 percent from 2001 to 2004 to 1 / 2 percent over the most recent 4 years. over the same periods, euro - area growth has slowed from 1. 3 percent to 0. 4 percent. in japan the labor force was essentially flat from 2011 to 2015, though this was a slight improvement from a small rate of decline in the early 2000s. productivity growth over the same periods has slowed from 3. 0 percent to 0. 5 percent in the united states, from 0. 6 percent to 0. 2 percent in the euro area, and 1. 5 percent to 0. 5 percent in japan. regarding sensitivity to risk, the risk premium for capital investment appears to have increased since the crisis ; see del negro and others ( 2015 ). a higher risk premium requires a lower risk - free rate to generate an equivalent level of investment. from the end of 2009 to the end of 2013, growth in important u. s. emerging market trading partners averaged 4. 7 percent, while growth in advanced economies averaged 1. 8 percent. however, in 2014 emerging country growth slowed to 3. 3 percent, compared with 1. 6 percent in advanced economies, and for the first three quarters of 2015, annualized growth was 2. 5 percent and 1. 1 percent, respectively. bis central bankers ’ speeches nickel. commodity exporters and close trading partners in asia will be most affected, but the changes in the composition and rate of growth in a country that has accounted for about onethird of the growth in world output and trade will likely ripple through the global economy much more generally. amplified spillovers of course, policy divergence among major economies could be limited by rapid and strong transmission of foreign shocks across borders. in particular, although the u. s. real economy has traditionally been seen as more insulated from foreign trade shocks than many smaller economies, the combination of the highly global role of the dollar and u. s. financial markets and the proximity to the zero lower bound

timothy f geithner : developments in the global economy and implications for the united states remarks by mr timothy f geithner, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the council on foreign relations'c peter mccolough roundtable series on international economics, new york, 11 january 2007. * * * it is a pleasure to be here at the council on foreign relations, and to be here with jerry corrigan. a few brief remarks about the global economy, both the real and financial dimensions, to provide a basis for our discussion. 2006 marked the fourth successive year of a global expansion that has been remarkable for its strength, for its breadth, and for its stability in the face of economic shocks and uncertainty in the geopolitical realm. this period of broad - based growth in income has been supported by a number of important fundamental forces. rapid technological innovation and greater economic integration have brought stronger growth and higher levels of productivity. the acceleration in productivity growth that occurred in the united states in the second half of the last decade seems likely to remain intact. and productivity growth is accelerating outside the united states, most strikingly in some of the large emerging economies. financial innovation and greater integration of national financial systems has contributed to the strength of real economic activity by improving the allocation of resources within and among economies. improvements to risk management and to capital cushions are likely to have made the financial system more stable and more resilient. and macroeconomic policy has improved around the world. the increase in monetary policy credibility in a broad range of countries has produced lower rates of inflation and more stability in inflation expectations. greater public confidence in monetary policy was critical to laying the foundation for the improvements in real economic performance, by providing a stable foundation for long - term investment decisions. in emerging markets, better monetary policy has been accompanied by more disciplined and conservative fiscal policy and a range of other policies that have reduced, though not eliminated, vulnerability to changes in confidence, capital flows and exchange rate movements. these factors are each fundamentally important, and they are, of course, interrelated. the policies that delivered better inflation outcomes, more openness and competition and stronger financial systems were critical to fostering an environment in which improvements in productivity and growth could occur. this expansion has also been notable for the financial conditions that have prevailed over the past several years. long - term interest rates have remained relatively low in nominal and real terms. equity and other asset prices have moved higher. credit