the prospects for our energy sector. the scott ryder report tells me that, as at the end of 2010, proven gas reserves were equivalent to 9 years of production and proven oil reserves, the equivalent of 14 years ( production ). the data show that oil production has been on a secular decline for several years and anecdotal information suggest that petro - chemical industries are currently facing serious gas shortages. this portrait underscores the urgent need for investment in exploration in order to tap into our probable and possible oil and gas reserves. however, the results from two bid rounds conducted so far, have not been as good as envisaged. in addition to the production uncertainties, there are serious risks to gas prices over the medium to long term. these arise from the great proliferation of shale gas technology which is likely to lead to a major increase in gas output and depress lng prices worldwide. the uncertain prospects for the energy sector and the central role that this sector will continue to play in the economy over the next few years, may be contributing to the crisis of confidence in the non - energy sector. perhaps a national dialogue on the subject would serve to give investors a better understanding of the real picture in the energy sector and facilitate more meaningful planning of the much - needed diversification effort. if current trends in the energy sector persist, the transformation of the non - energy sector will become all the more urgent, if sustainable growth is to be achieved. this transformation would need to be based on the establishment of a range of competitive industries producing for new export markets. you, the private sector are being called upon to play the major role in this transformation effort. i submit, as i have done before, that the market mechanism will not provide the necessary incentives for meaningful diversification. state leadership and vision will be required and i would add the active participation of other stakeholders such as the trade unions and the tertiary educational institutions. among the government ’ s roles is the provision of public goods and services that are essential to the growth process. thus, the focus should be on the improvement of our economic infrastructure – specifically roads, water, electricity, ports and so on. government has already announced sizable investment programmes in these areas. government has also been placing great emphasis on education and training. hopefully this emphasis would serve to create a culture that institutionalises continuous learning and a “ can do ” attitude, which is critical for an environment conducive to innovation. the government also has responsibility for maintaining an enabling

accounted for 38 per cent of regional gdp and our per capita income is about us $ 19, 000 compared with an average of us $ 8, 900 for the other caricom territories. the bahamas and barbados have higher per capita incomes. as we all know, the entire region was affected by global recession, some countries more than others. in 2009 – 2010, economic activity in the oecs declined by a cumulative 9 per cent. in barbados and jamaica, the cumulative decline was about one - half this amount – about 5 per cent. in these countries, the main contributing factors were the sharp fall in tourist arrivals and workers ’ remittances. the oecs were further affected by the impact of the clf / clico crisis ( in fact, it was baico ) and the devastation caused by hurricane tomas, particularly in st lucia and st vincent and the grenadines. bis central bankers ’ speeches ( the region remained in crisis in 2011. while there has been some improvement in tourist arrivals, the oecs saw another year of economic decline, albeit at a reduced rate. jamaica and barbados both reported the start of a very weak recovery ). in trinidad and tobago real gdp is estimated to have declined by 3 per cent in 2009 remained flat in 2010 and declined again in 2011 ( by just over 1 per cent ). i should note that guyana and suriname were the only two countries in the region that emerged unscathed, largely because of their gold resources which benefited from rising international prices. trinidad and tobago ’ s more resilient economic performance, relative to its neighbours, owes much to our energy resources and to the entrepreneurial dynamism of our private sector. these endowments are reflected, inter alia, in our stronger government finances, lower public debt, more robust foreign reserve positions, and in our dominance in regional trade. the following summary statistics paint the picture. regional governments have run fiscal deficits each year since 2000, while trinidad and tobago has run fiscal surpluses for all but two years, over the same period. the caricom region boasts of having among the most highly - indebted countries in the world, with public debt averaging around 70 per cent of gdp ( jamaica, grenada and st kitts and nevis have debt ratios of over 100 per cent of gdp ). in contrast, trinidad and tobago has a public debt ratio of 38 per cent of gdp. the relative fiscal and public debt performance are part of the story that