samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
different models of inflation, some of which require absolutely no knowledge of, for instance, the output gap or potential growth. even models that use comparatively insignificant assumptions from economic theory can have satisfactory predictive power. we also use disaggregated data on price and wage tendencies, shortages and so on. in the light of all this information we then try to complete the puzzle of future inflation. another matter to emphasise in this context is that even when outcome figures for inflation are available, it is not always possible to separate the contributory factors. when forecasting future inflation, we normally start from a notion of the size of the output gap, the level of potential growth and so on. if it then turns out that inflation has been lower than we calculated even though growth followed the expected path, it may seem natural to attribute this to a better trade - off between inflation and growth. but the proper explanation may well prove to be something else, for instance that there was more unutilised capacity than the forecast assumed or that we underestimated potential growth. the impression that earlier relationships have changed does not necessarily mean that we are in the throes of a new economy ; we may simply have gained better insights into how the earlier, essential relationships work. while it is true that the contributions to the monetary policy decision - making process that have been made by economic expertise and econometrics can scarcely be overestimated, the fact remains that to some extent monetary policy is still a matter of trial and error. it is some consolation in this context that we have a continuous supply of new information. if our policy happens to be unduly restrictive, for instance, this will show up in weaker inflation and vice versa. the direction of policy can then be adjusted. this is relevant not least with respect to the new economy. it seems unlikely that the mechanisms i talked about earlier would cause economic relationships to change overnight. presumably it would be more a matter of gradual changes that we can incorporate in the foundation for decisions. then it is naturally the case that our decisions invariably involve taking some degree of unavoidable chance as the risks associated with alternative strategies are weighed in the balance. the economy ’ s cyclical position is important here. it is generally agreed at present that economic prospects for the coming years are unusually bright. most forecasters count on stable growth of between at least 3 and 4 % this year and next, followed it seems by the continuation of a favourable trend. in

governor salceda to the csf movement. we also look forward to learning much from your csf as you start implementation of this empowering collateral - free credit program for micro, small, and medium enterprises. mabuhay ang albay! mabuhay ang mahal nating bansang pilipinas! maraming salamat sa inyong lahat!
such as these make me wonder whether it might collectively be possible to come to a compromise in which more trading is done directly on the public market, if at the same time the public market rules were adjusted to emphasize greater liquidity provision, and particularly more stable liquidity provision, over speed. perhaps public - private forums such as this conference can help in achieving that type of cooperative approach. i look forward to hearing views on these ideas tomorrow. bis central bankers ’ speeches treasury repo markets have also been undergoing structural changes. this is a good time to look at potential changes to the clearance and settlement infrastructure in these markets, as we will discuss tomorrow afternoon. we should take this opportunity to ask whether current market structures are well - suited to the new environment, or whether we should be aiming for a substantially different approach in the longer run. there is a tight link between funding liquidity in repo markets and market liquidity in cash and futures markets, so a healthy, liquid repo market is essential to the overall health of the market. however, regulatory changes have made repo activity more expensive. 4 there are currently a number of private proposals to expand the use of central clearing for repo markets that could help to reduce those costs. since the crisis, reforms have supported greater use of clearing for a wide range of products, and i believe that greater clearing in treasury repo markets could be beneficial. the conference will conclude tomorrow with a discussion of regulatory requirements in treasury markets. many point to post - crisis regulation as a key factor driving any recent decline in liquidity. although regulation seems to have had little to do with the events of october 15, i would agree that it is one factor driving recent changes in market making. the same regulations have also greatly strengthened the major banks and made another financial crisis far less likely. in my view, we should be prepared to accept some increase in the cost of market making in order to improve our overall financial stability. that said, these regulations are new, and we should be willing to learn from experience. regulatory requirements for treasury markets may need to change over time to reflect a rapidly evolving market environment. markets will adapt to new regulation and other developments. we all have a responsibility to make sure that market and regulatory incentives appropriately encourage an evolution that will enhance market liquidity and functioning. i ’ ve been eagerly looking forward to this conference, in the belief that our discussions here can do just that. regulatory efforts have also made tri - party repo infrastructure considerably

safer by sharply reducing the market ’ s reliance on discretionary extensions of intraday credit by the clearing banks and fostering improvements in market participants ’ liquidity and credit risk - management practices. bis central bankers ’ speeches
euro area and thereby for the continuing success of the euro.

. they were accompanied by fiscal consolidation and adjustments in the social security systems, in particular the pension system. these structural reforms have paved the way for further necessary market - based corrections, for example in wage setting and intra - plant working - time flexibility, to take place. they have been painful, but the economy was in much better shape afterwards. in my view, this is the core lesson that can be drawn from germany ’ s experience. it is true that economic growth in germany was unusually dependent on foreign trade during the last upswing between mid - 2003 and early 2008, but we would be ill - advised to deduce from this experience the need for actively propping - up domestic demand, for example via encouraging higher negotiated wages. rather, german exports were boosted by strong, but ultimately unsustainable global economic growth, whereas a pick - up in private demand once high unemployment started to decline was repeatedly burdened by exogenous forces. for example, the need to cut excessive public deficits required a more restrictive stance of fiscal policy and the rapid rise in energy prices in 2008 absorbed the sizeable pick - up in nominal disposable income as the upswing was about to broaden to the domestic economy. what is therefore often neglected is that germany was able to serve as an important buffer for world demand at the height of the financial crisis via its still robust private consumption as well as large fiscal stimulus packages. looking ahead and bearing in mind the prospects for global economic growth as well as its regional breakdown, the german economy is unlikely to replicate the growth profile of the most recent upswing. in an external environment characterised by a less steep but hopefully healthier expansion, german enterprises will naturally have to focus more on the domestic market than before. political coordination of this process which goes beyond the purpose of setting a framework for a market - induced, smooth reallocation of resources is neither necessary nor helpful. conclusion ladies and gentlemen, the adjustment process the german economy underwent after reunification and during the first years of monetary union has shown that a market - based correction even of severe domestic structural problems is possible if the necessary reforms are addressed. in addition, the effort and inconvenience associated with those adjustments will pay off as they lead to strengthened economic conditions in the individual economies and the euro area as a whole. the emu urgently needs such market - based adjustments as they are a prerequisite for economic divergencies to come to a halt, for sustainable economic growth within the
low cost, secured ict based mobile banking model and moving towards a less - cash society as envisaged in our draft payment system vision document for 2012 – 15. thank you very much for a patient listening. bis central bankers ’ speeches

bond markets and it soon became the benchmark yield curve for all of the eurozone. eventually, we hope to see a similar benchmark yield curve in the philippines. one that can potentially be smoother than the bval curve. we hope that we can get ideas from this discussion on how some curve - it does not have to be the swaps curve - could gain wide acceptance as a benchmark among market participants. 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches all of these may require some government initiative. it maybe that the regulators killed the interest rate swap market, but we want to understand what happened and what could happen after today. so, i hope with today's ese, an amazing thing will also happen, and i think this is a place where we can plant the usual seeds of collaboration to aid capital market development. on that note, i encourage everyone's active participation. let us have a very productive session. maraming salamat at mabuhay tayong lahat! 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches
as well as to the balance sheets of the banks you are running! happy banker ’ s day, dear colleagues!

activities will continue through implementing the european regulatory framework applicable to the credit institutions with a focus on the consistent implementation of the technical standards and regulations, the guidelines of the european banking authority and the recommendations of the european systemic risk board. priorities : • carrying on the practice of uninterrupted supervisory cycle by means of ongoing off - site control 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches and on - site inspections ; • the supervisory review and assessment of banks based on the approach developed in alignment with the ecb internal guidelines and the guidelines issues by the european banking authority. the purpose of the supervisory review and assessment is to strengthen the link between the dynamics of risks within the system, a bank ’ s risk profile, its own funds, its liquid assets and risk management systems and internal control environment, which would serve as the basis for reaching an overall assessment of the viability of each credit institution individually ; • continuing the policy of conservative macro - prudential supervision aiming at accumulation and maintenance of capital buffers during the economic upturn. the objective is upholding the stability of the banking system, including by preventing or reducing the systemic risks involved in the activities of credit institutions and identifying and limiting the emergence of macroeconomic factors that would threaten the stability of the banking system. 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches
that i have raised a lot of issues and provided very few answers. nonetheless, i will stop here, and leave it for your discussions over the next couple of days to resolve some of these issues.

been able to widen their margins. the government has helped to sustain that competition by putting in place arrangements to encourage the continued securitisation of housing loans. the australian office of financial management ( aofm ) has been buying mortgage - backed securities from these lenders at yields that, during the crisis, were well below those in the secondary market ( though still very attractive in absolute terms ). this helped keep the cost of funds to these firms at levels that allowed them to continue lending, albeit at a much reduced rate from that of earlier years. the government has recently announced an expansion in the aofm program. at the same time, issuers of mortgage - backed securities are finding that, with market spreads having narrowed substantially in recent months, it is again becoming economic to issue securities into the market. as my colleague, guy debelle, said last week, the australian securitisation market, like securitisation markets everywhere, has suffered reputational damage from the events in the united states. however, australian mortgage - backed securities have not experienced credit problems. i am confident that this fundamental point will eventually see the local securitisation market return to being an important source of funding for housing loans. in the meantime, increased lending by banks means that total new loan approvals are relatively high. in fact, new loan approvals are at levels which indicate a degree of homebuyer activity that has typically been associated with rising house prices ( graph 7 ). at the same time, however, existing borrowers are continuing to take advantage of the low level of interest rates to make accelerated loan repayments, which is restraining the overall growth of housing credit. even so, housing credit is growing at an annual rate of 7 – 8 per cent, a pace which is more than adequate to fund the new investment in housing that is needed. graph 7 housing loan approvals and prices % % year - ended housing price growth ( lhs ) 2. 0 1. 8 1. 6 1. 4 1. 2 housing loan approvals * ( rhs ) - 5 - 10 1. 0 0. 8 * as a share of the value of the dwelling stock ; excludes owner - occupier refinancing and investor approvals for new construction and by ‘ others ’ sources : abs ; apm ; rba why are dwelling prices high in australia relative to income? there is a common perception that house prices relative to household income in australia are high both compared with
13 % - 5 % - - spending on pensions + 10. 2 % + 2. 2 % - - total ageing - related spending + 11. 5 % + 3. 4 % government debt / gdp : projection 346 % almost 200 % rise in public spending as % of gdp 2005 - 2050 source : economic policy committee and european commission projections.

i am happy that we have come so far today. such a project can only become reality if the city authorities, too, prove their commitment. so, i would also like to express my gratitude to lord mayor petra roth and the different departments of the city of frankfurt, especially the urban planning department, for the unstinting work and support they provided from the time of the purchase of the site to the architectural competition and the urban development plan, which was developed in parallel to our own planning, and also with the issuance of the building permit in may 2008. this is no time for complacency. we still have many challenges to face, and we have to make sure that the construction work proceeds smoothly. i am looking forward to seeing the restoration of the market hall and the rise of the office towers. i have full trust in all of you who are involved in the project working for our new headquarters, and in your expertise and knowledge to ensure the successful finalisation of our building – within schedule and budget, of course, as we are responsible for using our resources effectively and efficiently. i have advised our team, the new ecb premises project office, to monitor the works carefully and to keep a close eye on the quality, on the scheduling and on the costs of the project – the budget has to be respected. this is essential. today, i want to thank my dear colleague on the executive board, lorenzo bini smaghi, who has overseen the project remarkably well for the executive board over the past few years, as well as gerald grisse and thomas rinderspacher in their capacity of project coordinator and project manager – also as representatives for the entire team – for the excellent work achieved thus far, the development of the project within the expected and required quality and costs estimate and for the successful tendering of the construction works. i wish all of those who will either be continuing to work or who are just starting to work for our new building all the best and good endeavours!
forthcoming innovation that the bank is currently embarked on is the introduction of a framework which will allow digital banks to operate in mauritius. our role in the payment space is not limited to the domestic market only. the bank is also participating in the cross - border regional payment initiatives of the sadc and comesa, in line with our role as an active international financial centre in the region. the bank had been closely involved with the comesa clearing house in the setting up of the regional payment and settlement system – the repss – with the overall objective of encouraging intra - trade in the comesa region. the bank is currently the settlement bank of the repss and settles transactions in us dollars and euro on the same day for 9 central banks in the comesa region, namely those of the democratic republic of congo, egypt, eswatini, kenya, malawi, rwanda, uganda, zambia and of course mauritius. regional payment systems enable settlement of cross - border transactions faster without having to rely on intermediary banks outside the region. this offers several advantages to countries in the region in terms of cost savings and transaction time. as intra - africa and regional trade continues to grow, the maucas will play a key role in further 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches facilitating the integration of our domestic payment infrastructure with regional payment systems. the maucas platform, through the ips – the instant payment switch – has far - reaching potential for commercial transactions. with the ips, we can even go much further in respect of crossborder operations by tapping into new digital payment infrastructure through open application programming interfaces ( apis ). very soon, these regional payment infrastructures will be integrated with other regional payment systems of the african continent. this will expand the horizon for business and trade at cheaper costs. the bank is actively participating in this initiative as a member of the association of african central banks. in november this year, we have been designated deputy chair of the committee working on a pan - african integrated mobile payment system. at the level of the bank, we remain highly committed to the sustained development of an enabling ecosystem. to this end, i have set up a fintech committee comprising the bank, the financial services commission, leading local and global operators and service providers in the fintech space. this committee will assess and provide clear and actionable recommendations on the way forward for the development of fintech in the banking and non - banking financial space. the first report of the committee is expected in quarter

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the independence of central banks is of key importance and should not be called into question. whatever the criticism may be, every other regime in which the central bank is closer to the finance ministry is much worse than the current system. but not everybody seems to agree. there may be populists who dream of something different. but most politicians are very conscious of the need to keep monetary and fiscal policy separate. any other approach can quickly turn dangerous. 5 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches

not a member of the committee and, as such, he was not supposed to intervene during the meetings, but his personal relations with jacques delors and with carlo azeglio ciampi, then governor of the banca d ’ italia and a member of the committee, as well as his role as “ rapporteur ” allowed him to bis central bankers ’ speeches greatly influence the deliberations. that was an excellent opportunity to combine his two aspirations : a stable currency but also one that would powerfully contribute to european union. in the 1989 – 91 negotiations that led to the maastricht treaty, tommaso fought hard to maintain the momentum towards monetary union which had been established by the delors committee. indeed, he feared that the decision to establish a temporary institution, the european monetary institute, instead of the european central bank, would be a critical mistake, also considering that in the meantime in a number of countries, again including italy, policies were not sufficiently stability - oriented. we know the story since then : the project of monetary unification came close to failure with the repeated exchange rate crises in the first half of the 1990s. but europe ’ s efforts in its historical endeavour eventually succeeded. in the 1993 – 97 preparatory work for the launch of the euro, tommaso had yet another chance to show his unique ability to build on the one hand, a strong conceptual, analytical and policy framework ( the “ vision ” ) and, on the other hand, to implement a concrete set of measures and actions to turn the vision into reality. in the area of financial stability, tommaso elaborated and worked towards the realisation of three fundamental ideas. first, he provided a far - sighted yet, in the end, realistic contribution to the design of the architecture for financial supervision in europe. he was convinced that in a single market, and even more so within a single currency area, the supervisory framework had to be as convergent as possible, entailing a transfer of supervisory responsibilities from national to eu level. indeed, he was convinced that the public good of financial stability also needed to be provided at eu level, and that would have necessitated the creation of an eu supervisory framework. at maastricht, the member states could not agree on this. tommaso considered this a mistake – and the eu had to learn its lesson from this omission the hard way, during the financial crisis. tommaso regarded the convergence of supervisory rules and of supervisory practices through