to 1, 4 per cent in 2018. the uk growth forecast for 2017 was revised up by 0, 4 per cent in the latest weo update, to 1, 5 per cent. by all accounts, the deflation fears which once gripped the advanced world, apart from japan, seem to be abating. this is partly due to the increase in oil prices following the agreement among opec11 members and several other major producers to limit supply. emerging markets are set to accelerate from an estimated growth of 4, 1 per cent in 2016 to 4, 8 per cent in 2018. as the imf points out, this projection largely reflects a gradual normalization of conditions in a number of large economies that are currently experiencing macroeconomic strains. china is expected to grow by 6, 5 per cent in 2017, as a policy bias of easy fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy is expected to remain in place. however, the rapid expansion of credit, combined with insufficient progress in addressing corporate debt, raises the risk of a sharper slowdown or a disruptive adjustment. india is forecast to grow by 7, 2 per cent in 2017, although this forecast was trimmed somewhat due to the government ’ s decision to demonetise almost 90 per cent of the currency in circulation. this move induced a temporary negative consumption shock owing to cash shortages and payment disruptions. both brazil and russia are expected to return to positive growth in 2017. so while the global economy is expected to turn the corner this year, there are a number of risks that warrant attention. these include the possible shift towards inward - looking policies, the continued threat of a potentially severe slowdown in china, greater protectionism, a sharper - than - expected tightening in global financial organization of the petroleum exporting countries conditions ( as monetary policy in advanced economies is expected to be less accommodative going forward ), and increased geopolitical tensions related to the rise of populism ; and brexit, amongst others. as much as a fiscal stimulus from advanced economies should be positive, the change to a less accommodative monetary policy stance in advanced economies, in particular the us, combined with a stronger us dollar, can have adverse consequences for emerging markets, including accelerating capital outflows and putting the rebound in emerging market economies in jeopardy. however, having said this, it is also true that emerging markets are more resilient than before as macroeconomic fundamentals have improved considerably and vu

focused on the role, composition and responsibilities of the board. more broadly, there has been equal emphasis on how we account to the wider public. both processes throw up a peculiar, and quite perplexing challenge : how to present our work and achievements in terms that are comprehensible and acceptable to the many non - specialists on our boards, and to the multitude of non - specialists among the general public. because of the business background of many board members, and because of the natural human desire for clarity and simplicity, this increasingly boils down to a quest for setting down specific, quantifiable targets by which our performance can be measured. this presents enormous difficulties, even in policy areas that might seem easily amenable to quantification. and the challenges become still more complex when performance is linked to pay. the same problems of clarity and simplicity arise in the operation of transparency, an issue closely linked to accountability, and something which has, i believe, suffused all of the discussions these last few days. there has been a shift in the approach to this subject in recent years, from a broad assumption of confidentiality, except where exceptions can be justified, to something approaching the opposite : transparency and openness in all things except where market or commercial sensitivity, personal privacy or the public interest require otherwise. this is a healthy development. but it is also something that has been forced on many of us by financial or political crisis - through the sudden and often painful realisation that our actions have been inadequately explained, misrepresented and misunderstood. central banks have been quick to learn from these episodes. communications strategies are now seen as a crucial part of central bank activity, and no just as icing on the cake. the emphasis now is increasingly on forging links, building bridges and storing up political capital and public goodwill that will help us deal better with the next crisis. similar observations might be made on the subject of the effectiveness of central banks - surely the result that we all strive for. radical changes in our functions, progress in technology, and the process of accountability have all dictated cuts in staffing and resources, and various forms of streamlining and re - engineering. much of this can be healthy and refreshing. but we should also be mindful of the need for flexibility, for some reserve capacity to deal with sudden and unexpected events. this is why the increasing focus on strategic planning and risk management, reflected in your discussions this week, is welcome. there is