in these profitable sectors that workers are demanding a rapid recovery of past real wage losses. 9 this means that, going forward, profits can play a buffering role, limiting the pass - through from wage increases to consumer prices. finally, since 2021 productivity has been held back by a very intensive use of the labour factor, driven by increases in the costs of other production inputs and the decline in consider for instance the well - known case of the retail sector in germany. wages are expected to rise on average by almost 7 per cent in 2024, but profits have increased by over 40 per cent since 2019, from 110 to 155 billion euros, creating significant shock - absorption capacity. at a more general level, bank of italy calculations show that aggregate markups ( defined as the ratio between the value of production and total variable costs ) are well above their long - term trends in germany, france and italy ( figure a2 ). the real cost of labour. productivity growth is likely to resume in the coming months, as labour becomes relatively more expensive, leading to an increase in the capital - labour ratio. this will compress growth in unit labour costs and hence consumer prices. 3. the outlook for inflation and growth a careful examination of disaggregated, high - frequency price movements is essential to understand inflation dynamics, but there is a limit to the amount of information that can be gleaned from raw data alone. monetary policy is forward - looking ; as such, it must also rely on an estimate of how inflation is likely to evolve in the medium term. one way of informing this estimate is to use indicators of ‘ underlying inflation ’ that filter out the noise and cross - sectional heterogeneity in the data and provide a clearer signal on common, medium - term inflation trends. many available indicators of this kind show that inflation has been firmly on a downward trend since 2023 ( figure 6 ). the simplest indicator, core inflation, has been on a downward trend too ; we should not forget that relatively high services inflation has been accompanied by very low inflation for non - energy industrial goods. figure 6 rise and fall of underlying inflation ( monthly data ; per cent ) core hicpxx pcci core'24 uci core source : calculations based on eurostat and ecb data. notes : core ( hicpx ) is the y - o - y inflation rate of the overall hicp excluding energy and food. hicpxx is the y - o - y rate of change of

andreas dombret : new regulation on trading with otc derivatives introductory statement by dr andreas dombret, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, to the panel discussion “ financial markets – finding a regulatory normal ”, euro finance week conference, frankfurt am main, 20 november 2012. * 1. * * introduction dear ladies and gentleman the regulation of the otc derivatives markets is more or less on track, but the ambitious timeline of the g 20 will not be kept. the g 20 goal to trade standardised derivatives on exchanges or electronic trading platforms and to clear all standardised otc derivatives through a central counterparty ( ccp ) by the end of 2012 will not be reached. whereas in europe the clearing obligation established by the european market infrastructure regulation ( emir ) is mostly in force. the trading obligation under the currently discussed markets in financial instruments regulation ( mifir ) will, together with the markets in financial instruments directive ( mifid ), not enter into force before 2015. it is remarkable that the united states has made more progress with implementing the trading and clearing obligation under dodd frank. however, this first mover advantage does not always produce the best solution for the global derivatives market. 2. multilateral approaches are more promising than bilateral solutions the forthcoming challenge will be the global application of the new regulatory framework. while the united states of america seeks a bilateral approach to assess the equivalence of third country regimes, the european stance is to negotiate on a multilateral basis to grant equivalence of different regulatory regimes. i am convinced that this approach is superior since it creates more legal certainty compared with a case by case equivalence assessment. 3. regulation will be without effect if there is no adequate implementation and supervision the implementation, application and introduction of the numerous rules will demand a huge effort : first of all, from the supervisors, as they have to supervise and oversee central infrastructures, as well as from the financial and non - financial industry. furthermore, ccps and market participants, both are affected. ccps have to adjust their risk management to cope with more clearing members and with accelerating volumes of derivatives to be cleared centrally. ccp clearing is required of market participants ; otherwise they have to accept higher capital and collateralisation requirements. besides, the standardisation of otc derivatives should make good progress, so that the clearing and trading obligation becomes operational as soon as possible. we are aware of the practical difficulties and do not underestimate the challenges that have to be met in