assess how our earlier decisions have been influencing monetary conditions, aggregate demand, and inflation. we will also consider how quickly supply - side constraints have been weakening and, accordingly, what level of the key rate is needed to bring inflation back to the target. according to our revised forecast, the average key rate next year will equal 6. 0 – 7. 0 % per annum. further on, as inflation expectations go down and inflation decelerates, the key rate will return to its long - term neutral range. we still estimate this neutral range to be at 5 – 6 %, provided that inflation is close to the bank of russia ’ s target of 4 %. thank you all for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

level which the ecb regards as being compatible with price stability. at this juncture, the upward movement of consumer price inflation mainly reflects the impact of oil prices on the energy price component of the hicp and the growing pressures on prices stemming from the depreciation of the exchange rate of the euro. overall, due to both oil prices and the exchange rate, consumer price inflation in the euro area is likely to remain above 2 % for some months to come. monetary policy cannot offset such short - term pressures on the hicp. however, it needs to make sure that temporary deviations from the ecb ’ s definition of price stability do not spill over into long - term inflation expectations, and to ensure that they do indeed remain temporary. in this sense, it is crucial to make sure that short - term upward pressures from import prices do not lead to a more protracted increase in the hicp in a period of strong economic growth. in view of this situation, in which both pillars of the monetary policy strategy of the ecb were pointing to upward risks to price stability, the governing council of the ecb decided on 31 august to increase the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations of the eurosystem by 25 basis points, to 4. 50 %. the interest rates on the marginal lending and deposit facilities were also increased by 25 basis points, to 5. 50 % and 3. 50 % respectively. the change in the procedure for the allotment of liquidity in the main refinancing operations of the eurosystem, which i mentioned at our last meeting on 20 june, has proven to be very satisfactory. as you may recall, the governing council decided on 8 june that, starting with the operation to be settled on 28 june, the main refinancing operations of the eurosystem would be conducted as variable rate tenders with a minimum bid rate. in this procedure, the minimum bid rate took over the role previously performed by the rate in fixed rate tenders in signalling the monetary policy stance of the governing council. our current assessment is that market participants adapted smoothly to the new procedure, and that the procedure has served its purpose very well. the governing council will remain alert to all emerging risks to price stability. the maintenance of price stability will continue to contribute to a favourable environment for growth. however, it cannot increase the growth potential of the euro area. it is the responsibility of other actors to create the necessary conditions for sustained high