economic relations regularly conduct talks with managers of companies throughout switzerland. these provide us with a timely, first - hand account of the latest cyclical and structural developments in the swiss economy. a summary of the results has for some time now been published in our quarterly business cycle signals report. the enclosed study explains the objectives and the methods underlying these company talks. you will also find the latest issue of the business cycle signals in your press kits. both of these sources of information are, of course, also available on our website. page 5 / 6 berne, 12 december 2019 thomas jordan news conference ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. it is now my pleasure to give the floor to fritz zurbrugg. page 6 / 6

lending support to consumer demand. various central banks eased their monetary policy in the autumn in light of modest inflation and the economic risks. moreover, they signalled that they would probably leave their policy rates at a low level for an extended period of time. the snb is maintaining its existing baseline scenario for the global economy, and expects momentum to remain modest over the short term. the monetary policy easing is likely to contribute to the economy – and thus also inflation – picking up again over the medium term. risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside. chief among them are still trade tensions and the possibility of the persisting weakness in manufacturing activity spreading to the economy as a whole. swiss economic outlook according to the initial estimate, the swiss economy grew by 1. 6 % in the third quarter. this growth was primarily driven by manufacturing, where value added increased significantly thanks to strong growth in the exports of pharmaceutical products. the other industries in the manufacturing sector recorded a more modest expansion, in line with the slowdown in manufacturing worldwide. the labour market continues to be a mainstay of the economy. employment figures rose again slightly, and the unemployment rate persisted at a low level through to november. gdp is likely to expand by around 1 % in 2019, and the snb expects growth of between 1. 5 % and 2 % in 2020. the stronger expansion next year reflects the gradual firming expected in global economic activity as well as an exceptional effect. the latter stems from the fact that the forecast includes the revenue generated by major international sporting events, which is likely to increase growth by around half a percentage point. monetary situation and inflation expectations let me now move on to address monetary conditions – that is to say, exchange rates and interest rates – as well as inflation expectations. page 2 / 6 berne, 12 december 2019 thomas jordan news conference the external value of the swiss franc has remained stable since the monetary policy assessment in september. there has also been scarcely any change in the trade - weighted exchange rate over 2019 as a whole, although it initially declined before appreciating again in the summer. the swiss franc thus remains highly valued, and the situation on the foreign exchange market is still fragile. short - term interest rates are close to the snb policy rate. the long - term swiss franc rates reached new lows in the summer, and have recovered only slightly since. this pattern reflects global interest rate movements. the yield on 10 - year swiss confederation bonds currently