coming period from our projections, thus by extension impacting our future decision - making. uncertainty regarding the materialisation of inflation and gdp projections still largely stems from geopolitical relations and prospects for global economic growth, as well as their impact on the global prices of energy and other primary commodities. the effects of different levels of global prices of oil and primary agricultural commodities are presented in a text box about alternative projection scenarios. we must underline that the materialisation of these risks should not have a major impact on our inflation projection or lead to inflation exiting the target bounds. to a certain extent, the risks also pertain to the persistence of core inflation globally and the length of monetary policy tightness by leading central banks. risks to the projection also arise from the pace of growth of domestic demand, notably on account of the level of fdi inflow and investments in infrastructure and the energy sector. as for domestic risks, the outcome of the agricultural season at home is relevant and, in case of inflation, it mostly pertains to movements in fruit and vegetable prices, while in case of gdp the yield of cereals is particularly important. overall, risks to the inflation projection and risks to the gdp growth projection for this and the following years are judged to be symmetrical. the key message with which i would like to conclude my introductory speech is that our past monetary policy measures have been efficient and yielded the desired effects. our priority is to keep inflation sustainably within the bounds of the target tolerance band going forward, and to preserve financial system stability, because along with the maintained relative stability of the exchange rate, this is the best way in which a central bank can contribute to the certainty of business, strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals and ensuring a favourable outlook for our economic growth. this way we safeguard investment confidence, and support employment growth and the living standard of our citizens. in line with the achievement of these objectives and assuming that in the coming period we will “ sail through more peaceful international waters, without major winds and storms ”, we will estimate when and at what pace we should begin with monetary policy accommodation. and if it happens that we are again exposed to storms from the international surroundings, we have 9 of 10 shown in the past years that we are able to navigate even the most severe ones. nevertheless, we hope that the years ahead will bring fewer challenges than the ones behind us, and that this will help us achieve faster economic growth and overall progress of our country and all of our citizens. our

of past monetary policy tightening and the maturing of corporate loans disbursed within guarantee schemes. even so, y - o - y growth in total loans picked up slightly relative to end - 2023, measuring 1. 3 % in march. credit growth was facilitated by growth in household loan demand and alleviation of banks ’ credit standards, notably for corporates. the results of our april lending survey show that almost all banks expect credit activity to post growth this year, which should pick up additionally in 2025, and a large number of banks expect growth in corporate and household lending to exceed 5 % this and the next year. these expectations are also founded on the positive assessment of the overall economic situation in the country. preserved financial stability and real sector indicators that suggest a significant pickup in economic activity since h2 2023 confirm that with adequate monetary policy, which was tightened continually, but gradually and in a balanced manner, we succeeded in ensuring a soft landing. 4 of 10 chart 8 lending outlook for 2024 and 2025 ( number of banks ) corporates households corporates households fall no change up to 5 % y - o - y growth over 5 % y - o - y growth source : nbs. the preserved financial stability is illustrated by the high capital adequacy of banks of close to 22 %, with liquidity indicators almost two times higher than the minimum, as well as the share of npls in total loans being kept at the historical low of around 3 %. this was certainly facilitated by the strong regulatory framework for banks that was implemented even before this multidimensional crisis, as well as the carefully combined and synchronised measures of monetary and macroprudential policies. chart 10 npl level and share in total loans, gross principle chart 9 banking sector capital adequacy and liquidity indicators ( in rsd bn ) ( in % ) ( in % ) 3. 0 2. 5 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 regulatory capital to risk - weighted assets, in % ( lhs ) 0. 5 household sector corporate sector other sectors npl share in total loans ( rhs ) average monthy liquidity ratio ( rhs ) 0. 0 source : nbs. march march source : nbs. according to the flash estimate of the serbian statistical office, y - o - y gdp growth in q1 this year accelerated to 4. 6 %, and according to our estimate, seasonally - adjusted growth measured