the risks, impacts and opportunities for the insurance industry arising from technology changes are a key focus both locally and internationally. eiopa 9 and the iais10 have held roundtables and issued papers on insurance technology ( insurtech ) and financial technology ( fintech ) firms. history is replete with examples of industries being transformed, created and disrupted by technology changes. this dates back centuries, but the pace of this change and the risks associated with it are increasing, in what seems like an exponential way. if one looks at the motor industry, some of the world ’ s largest technology companies and the world ’ s leading car manufacturers are all investing heavily in the development of autonomous systems that will change the very nature of driving, and, therefore, of motor insurance. in this context, it is noteworthy that motor insurance is the most important non - life line of business representing over 50 % of the non - life market in several eu member states. it is clear that change is coming. on this specific example, many questions arise, including : 4 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches who will be insured? who will own the data generated by these vehicles? how will the data be shared? can the owner of the data better understand the risk profile of the vehicle and be able to offer more tailored insurance? it is clear that insurtech not only raises question in relation to what is insured, but how it will be insured, and how the different channels, providers and products combined with changing customer demands will impact on existing insurance firms. future viability is dependent on answering these questions, and the successful adaption of business models to meet these challenges. as you will doubtless hear from other speakers, the exponential increase in the availability, collection, and interrogation of data is but one of these opportunities and challenges. again, using the motor insurance industry as an example, we can see a sharp increase in the use of telematics and data analysis to improve the understanding of drivers ’ behaviours. this provides an ability to track behaviour, better price for risk and actively incentivise the reduction in risky behaviours – so delivering positive impacts for road safety. this may reduce the number and the severity of claims, which would be of obvious benefit to all, and ultimately should result in lower premiums for policyholders. as the volume of data increases, firms must invest in a proper data governance framework. there are a host of challenges in collecting, analysing and understanding

inflation rate and the subdued prospects for inflation over the medium term? our analysis points to three temporary factors that are acting to push up inflation today but are projected to fade over the course of next year. first, the pandemic initially exerted powerful downward pressure on inflation. in part, this was due to the severe drop in economic activity during 2020 ; in part, some policy measures directly contributed to lower inflation in 2020, especially the temporary vat cut in germany. the economic recovery during 2021 and termination of temporary tax cuts has operated in the opposite direction, temporarily pushing up the inflation rate. in particular, the base effect of unusually - low prices during 2020 has contributed to higher inflation during 2021, but these unusually - low prices will fall out of the inflation calculation ( which compares prices today with prices twelve months ago ) at the end of this year. in terms of individual factors, the reversal of the temporary german vat cut is a quantitatively - important component that will no longer feature in the data in the new year. 1 second, inflation pressures related to bottlenecks can in part be attributed to the unexpectedlystrong european and global recovery from the pandemic shock. in the june 2020 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, it was foreseen that euro area gdp for 2021 would remain 4 percentage points below the 2019 pre - pandemic level ; in the latest september 2021 projections, 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches euro area gdp for 2021 is foreseen to run only 1. 8 percentage points below the 2019 level. similarly, at the global level, the june 2020 update to the imf world economic outlook ( w eo ) forecast assessed that world gdp in 2021 would barely exceed the 2019 level ( by 0. 2 percentage points ), whereas the october 2021 w eo puts global output in 2021 at 2. 6 percentage points above the 2019 level. the performance is much stronger than initially expected, which can be attributed to the success of vaccination campaigns and other public health measures, together with extensive policy support around the world. however, a by - product of an unexpectedly - strong recovery is that there have been extensive demand - supply mismatches in the global markets for commodities and manufactured goods, which have been exacerbated by some sector - specific supply disruptions ( including in the semi - conductor industry ). there are also mis - matches in some segments of domestic labour markets, especially in those services sectors that suffered the most from the