of japan, this is a rather moderate expansion with rising domestic demand, based on a rising domestic demand large - scale fiscal stimulus and growing exports. inflation in japan remains close to zero, almost four years after the bank of japan began an enormous monetary stimulus, as low oil prices and a period of yen strength dragged down prices. “ the year - on - year rate of change in the consumer price index is likely to be slightly negative or about 0 % for the time being, ” said the bank of japan. emerging market economies ( emes ) as regards emerging economies, economic activity is projected to reach 4. 5 percent for 2017, around 0. 1 percentage point weaker than previously forecasted. china ’ s economy is expected to have met the government ’ s target of at least 6. 5 % growth of gdp for 2016. it is expected to continue to grow at a slightly slower rate ( 6. 2 % ) also next year. two main risks are threatening such a robust economic performance by the chinese economy, which, if materialized, will result in a sharp slowdown in the chinese economy, will have effects that will be felt globally. commodity exporters, like for instance brazil, australia and south - east asia, would then be hardest hit. the first one arises from the high level of debt overhang. china ’ s total corporate debt load had reached 255 % of gdp by the end of june, up from 141 % in 2008 and well above the average of 188 % for emerging markets, according to the bis. the second one is china ’ s troubled shadow banking system, which lacks financial sophistication. they look at the yield, and they don ’ t pay attention to the risk. a hypothetical series of defaults would shatter the assumption of an implicit guarantee, sparking a run that would leave dozens of banks exposed to a funding crisis. finally for 2017, watch out for india, which by the way marks 70 years since its independence from the british empire. for the past two consecutive years, india has outpaced china in terms of growth rates and is expected to do so this year as well. the growth forecast for 2017 is 7. 2 %. indeed, india seems to have gained a momentum despite the temporary negative consumption shock induced by cash shortages and payment disruptions associated with the recent currency note withdrawal initiative. table 1 real gdp and cpi forecasts for major world countries indicator real gdp ( yoy % ) cpi ( yoy % ) year united states 1

increase to 1. 7 % in 2017, up from 0. 7 % in 2016, mainly on account of higher oil prices and in line with the rebound in world economic activity. † imf, world economic outlook, january 2017. figure 2. real gdp growth ( year - on - year ) in major economies the most astonishing fact about the world economy is that it has grown every single year since the early 1950s. it has very rarely grown by less than 3 % since the early 1950s and only four times by less than 2 % - in 1975, 1981, 1982 and 2009. the first three were the result of oil price shocks, triggered by wars in the middle east and federal reserve disinflation. the latter was caused by the great recession after 2008 ’ s global financial crisis. the following slides summarise the imf ’ s january predictions for this year about the major blocks of the world economy. let ’ s start with the us. the us outlook output growth is projected to rise to 2. 3 % in 2017 and 2. 5 % in 2018. both business and consumer confidence are at their 15 - year peak, suggesting that the us economy is buoyant at the end of the obama administration. in addition, after the latest fomc meeting, the fed ’ s expectations for cpi inflation in 2017 are at 1. 8 % - 1. 9 %, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 1. 7 % - 1. 8 %. the eurozone outlook focusing on the economic developments in the euro area, the economic sentiment indicator for the euro area rose to 107. 8 in december 2016, reaching the highest since june of 2011, while consumer confidence remains at negative territory of - 5. 10, but in the highest level the last 20 months. as far as inflation data concerned, according to eurostat ’ s flash estimate, annual hicp inflation had continued to rise in december 2016, to 1. 1 %, after 0. 6 % in november, while core inflation ( flash estimate ) increased to 0. 9 % in december, up from 0. 8 % in november. inflation expectations, as measured by the five - year inflation - linked swap rate, edged up to 1. 77 % at the beginning of december, close to the values recorded at the beginning of this year, slightly higher than prior to the start of the pspp last year. moreover, the december 2016 eurosystem staff projections foresee the euro area hicp inflation at 0