will approach, and eventually exceed, those of older cohorts. moreover, the impact of learning from inflation experiences does not stop at inflation expectations. the experiences also feed into households ’ financing decisions, which in turn affects consumption and saving behaviours. we should keep in mind : younger people are currently facing high inflation for the first time in their lives. this suggests that the associated experience may be particularly memorable. especially as inflation is coinciding with several crises. the bottom line here is : the longer we live with high inflation rates, the more they are going to shape people ’ s lifetime experiences. and these new experiences may influence their expectations and decisions – even after inflation has fallen again. thus, the inflation shock could leave “ scars ”. such scars would be another factor that could lead to a different inflation setting than we were used to. in this field, we have to expect structural changes anyway. think of the transformative forces of climate change, the energy transition, the ageing of societies and the reordering of globalisation. with this in mind, kenneth rogoff recently argued that, “ the era of perpetual ultralow inflation will not come back anytime soon ”. overall, this could lead to higher trend inflation, but also to a more volatile inflation environment. [ 12 ] in such an environment, monetary policy will find it more difficult to maintain price stability. 4 monetary policy must act decisively to attain price stability however, this outcome is not pre - determined. the decisions we make today to tackle high inflation can shape the environment we will face tomorrow. in the current situation, central banks must prove how determined they are to attain price stability. i am convinced that strong determination now will pay off many times over in the medium and long term. the eurosystem is on the right track. with three major policy rate increases in a row, we have made important steps on the path of monetary policy normalisation. but we cannot stop here. further decisive steps are necessary. we are in an environment with inflation projections way above our target and upside risks to inflation. in such an environment, the current policy rate level cannot ensure a timely return of inflation to our 2 % target. to ensure the return to price stability, longterm nominal and real interest rates must sufficiently increase, which is why policy rates need to rise further. on that note, i consider it a premature discussion whether we have already reached restrictive territory. the policy rates have been raised by 2 percentage points

banking services is the ability of all banks, regardless of size, to gather deposits across markets and across geographies. although we ’ ve known that online banking gives customers an opportunity to open accounts and establish deposit relationships with any bank in the united states, we ’ ve only recently been able to measure how many deposits are gathered via the internet. the fdic recently began collecting data on deposits through accounts opened online. the data show that online deposits increased by more than 62 percent from 2019 to 2020. over that same time, deposits at brick - and - mortar branches grew by slightly more than 21 percent. online deposits increased by another 42 percent from 2020 to 2021, while brick - and - mortar deposits grew by around 10 percent. online deposits now account for more than 5 percent of all deposits at u. s. commercial banks, and that percentage is expected to increase. since we know that deposit relationships generally lead customers to develop other types of banking relationships, a comprehensive analysis of competition needs to account for the ubiquity of out - of - market banks with a strong national presence. nonbank competitors on the lending side, we ’ ve seen nonbanks compete directly with banks for traditional lines of business, including for agricultural loans, one - to - four family mortgage loans, small business loans, and consumer loans. for years, we ’ ve seen finance - 9companies compete with banks for consumer and small business loans and the farm credit system compete for agricultural loans. today we ’ re seeing mortgage companies not only compete, but dominate, the market for residential mortgage loans. nonbank fintech firms have become viable competitors for nearly all types of loan products, but most prominently consumer loans, small business loans, and student loans. one challenge is that we don ’ t have the same consistent set of data from nonbank entities that we do for banks. nonbanks are generally not subject to the same types of reporting requirements as banks, and analysts have to get creative when trying to measure how these entities impact competition. a few years ago, research presented at this conference by economists at the kansas city fed outlined a process to measure the effects of farm credit system lending on market competition. 8 the authors concluded that including farm credit lending in competitive analysis of a market “ significantly reduces measures of concentration. ” the authors found that “ excluding [ farm credit ] from market structure analyses may understate market competitiveness in rural markets where agriculture is an important part of the local economy. ” the