the eco - point system for household electrical appliances, consumption of other goods and services has generally been firm. under these circumstances, production has been showing signs of improvement since november. as for the outlook, exports are likely to continue to trend upward on the back of the improvement in overseas economies. private consumption is likely to pick up gradually as the effects of the decline in demand following the previous sharp increase gradually dissipate. with corporate profits showing solid improvements, business fixed investment is also likely to start picking up. thus, led by the recovery in exports, japan ’ s economy is likely to return to a recovery path with clear signs of a self - sustaining recovery trend. 1 that being said, however, private consumption is likely to remain subdued given that the employment and income situation – although easing somewhat – remains severe. furthermore, the pace of improvement in business fixed investment is likely to remain moderate since it will take time until firms ’ sense of excessive capital stock is dispelled, and the relative share of overseas investment has been increasing reflecting the widening gap between the economic growth potential at home and abroad. every april and october, the bank releases its outlook for economic activity and prices ( the outlook report ), and in the intervening january and july makes an interim assessment of the outlook laid out in the report. the policy board members ’ forecasts for real gdp are presented as reference figures in the respective months. in january, the median of policy board members ’ forecasts for gdp growth was 3. 3 percent for fiscal 2010, 1. 6 percent for fiscal 2011, and 2. 0 percent for fiscal 2012. bis central bankers ’ speeches b. weaker downward pressure on prices as for prices, the year - on - year pace of decline in the consumer price index ( cpi ), excluding fresh food and the effects of the special subsidies for high school tuition introduced in april 2010 as part of the government ’ s economic stimulus measures to reduce the cost of high school education, is slowing moderately due to the gradual improvement in the aggregate supply and demand balance in the economy as a whole. 2 regarding the outlook, this mechanism whereby the improvement in the aggregate supply and demand balance exerts upward pressure on prices is likely to continue as a trend. however, it is also likely that the year - on - year rate of growth in the cpi will be revised downward due to the base - year revision for the cpi scheduled for august 2011. 3 needless to say, regardless of the extent of the revision, prices

economic outlook for overseas economies continues to require attention, given that there are some uncertain factors including geopolitical developments and their economic implications. on the domestic side, stock prices are weak. hence, careful monitoring is required of progress in the resolution of the nonperforming - loan problem and its effects on stock prices, corporate finance, and the economy. on the price front, import prices are on a rising trend with some fluctuations, reflecting developments in overseas commodity prices such as crude oil. domestic corporate goods prices have been declining gradually due to the rise in import prices and the improved supply - demand balance in materials industries, despite the continued fall in machinery prices. consumer prices and corporate services prices have also been declining gradually. looking at the conditions influencing price developments, import prices are projected to be firm for the time being due mainly to developments in crude oil prices. although the low levels of inventories will this report is based on data and information available at the time of the bank of japan monetary policy meeting held on february 13 and 14, 2003. the bank ’ s view of recent economic and financial developments, determined by the policy board at the monetary policy meeting held on february 13 and 14, 2003, as the basis for monetary policy decisions. support prices to some degree, the overall condition of supply and demand is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on prices while domestic demand continues to be weak for a while. moreover, factors such as the ongoing technological innovations in machinery and the streamlining of distribution channels will continue to exert downward pressure on prices. under these circumstances, domestic corporate goods prices are likely to continue a gradual decline for the time being. the pace of year - on - year decline in consumer prices is expected to become somewhat slower. this is because the year - on - year change in prices of petroleum products is expected to become positive, and medical costs are projected to rise from april due to public insurance reforms. as for the financial environment, the outstanding balance of current accounts at the bank of japan is recently moving at around 20 trillion yen, as the bank provides ample liquidity. under these circumstances, in the short - term money markets, the overnight call rate continues to hover at very close to zero percent. moreover, longer - term interest rates continue to be at low levels as a whole. yields on long - term government bonds declined further in late january and are recently moving in the range of 0. 8 - 0. 9 percent. yield spreads between private bonds ( bank