manufacturing sector mitigate the magnitude of terms - of - trade shocks in france, both upwards ( 2020 with depressed energy prices ) and downwards ( since 2021 ). france is also a net exporter of transport services and wheat, that benefited from the past recent sharp price increases. conversely, the shock is of larger magnitude for spain, which is more dependent on energy imports and does not benefit from the rise in prices of transport service exports. beyond the comparison of this current terms - of - trade shock across countries, it is also instructive to compare this shock for a country like france with the period to which the present situation is often compared : the 1970s oil crisis. page 5 of 14 the terms of trade shock in france this year is expected to be the second largest since 1974, the first oil price shock. in 2022, for the whole year, the shock would amount to - 1. 4 gdp percentage point versus - 2. 8 gdp percentage points in 1974 during the first oil shock. our estimate for 2022 is in line with other estimates published by insee and the ministry of finance of around - 1. 5 gdp percentage point. the shock related to import prices is of similar magnitude in 2022 and 1974 but there are some differences in the composition of the shocks. in 2022 it is not only the price of energy that increases but also the prices of many other imported goods ( non - energy commodities, intermediate goods etc. ). at the same time export prices rose more in 2022, reflecting the more widespread diffusion of price increases to globally traded goods. in addition, the price of services, especially transport services, also partially offsets the negative shock to goods prices resulting from the surge in energy prices. there are many uncertainties regarding 2023. if the levelling off of world commodity prices is confirmed and the global economic slowdown also weighs on imports, the terms of trade shock will diminish in 2023. but the terms of trade page 6 of 14 shock could remain large if european countries need to replenish their gas inventories at a still elevated price for the winter of 2023 / 2024. in any case the terms of trade shock means a decrease of real income for the french economy and hence is a key driver of the slowdown in gdp growth expected for 2023. i. 3 measuring more specifically the energy shock regarding the energy shock, which is useful to consider since we can more easily look at its distribution between economic agents, we can

shall continue to be active players in innovation. a few have already launched digital currencies, some – including the eurosystem – are testing it in pilot experiments. we at the ecb decided a two - year investigation phase under the leadership of my colleague fabio panetta, before taking a decision about whether to go further by the end of 2023. retail cbdcs have caught the attention of the public ; however, they raise sensitive questions, especially regarding the use cases for households and the role of commercial banks. that is why i would call for a ceiling of the individual cbdc holdings. let us not forget the other possible digital currency, a “ wholesale ” cbdc for banking institutions. dlt could bring the benefits of central bank money digitalisation to a new level, with increased efficiency of some interbank processes and the development of new services, especially in a cross - border context. let me be clear, cbdc is not about the big brother of central banks threatening the free world of decentralized finance. rather it could be about providing further tools to help make defi successful and sustainable. the banque de france carried out nine successful experiments in 2021, with a wide array of partners and on different segments, and a new series of experiments focusing on cross - border payments will take place in 2022. it is a great satisfaction to see the bis innovation hub pushing ahead with several wholesale cbdc projects such as jura and dunbar, in which the banque de france is an active participant. and more broadly, it also a satisfaction to see that more and more central banks, notably some from asia, show an interest for wholesale cbdc. i will conclude by quoting zaha hadid, the iraq born architect who was the first woman to receive the pritzker prize in 2004. her iconic buildings, all swooping curves and flowing space, never featured any right angle. “ there are 360 degrees, so why stick to one? ” zaha hadid used to say. what an inspiring thought for us today. i thank you for your attention.