greening the financial system, based at the banque de france – estimates that the losses caused by chronic physical risks could amount to 15 % of global gdp by 2050, three times higher than its previous estimate of 5 %. another telling indicator is the recent estimate from france assureurs that more than half of private dwellings in france ( 11. 1 million ) are potentially at risk from clay shrinkage and swelling, which causes cracks and structural damage. lastly, the insurance industry needs to adapt its business models to the risks generated by demographic shifts in our societies. according to insee, iii the share of people aged over 65 is set to rise sharply, from 21 % in 2021 to 29 % in 2070. naturally, this is exacerbating the issue of how to maintain income levels after retirement, cover health costs ( senior health care ) and finance support for the elderly ( dependency ). in france, insurers already play a crucial role in health care and provident schemes, and hold a significant proportion of french citizens ’ retirement savings. how far can this role expand? 2 ) the frontiers of insurability : a few ideas this key issue is of course a sensitive one. i would like to share with you three thoughts on three levers. a better understanding of risks recent technological advances, especially in data gathering and artificial intelligence, must be fully leveraged to improve our understanding of the risks. but we should avoid the pitfalls of demutualising risks and excessive individualisation, which would be to deny the very role of insurance. on this issue, we have closely followed the debates surrounding the proposed european fida regulation, and the talks seem to be heading towards a sound balance between the secure but nonetheless broader sharing of financial data. moreover, climate stress testing is a good example of new tools. the exercise piloted by the acpr and completed in may 2024, which focused exclusively on insurers, has increased players ’ ability to anticipate the effects of climate change page 5 of 9 and adapt their strategies accordingly, notably thanks to the long - term scenario ( 2050 ) that was proposed. encouragement of prevention by insurers prevention must also play an important role : insurers can influence behaviour by encouraging measures to adapt to risks. regarding it / cyber risks, the terms and conditions of cyber risk insurance can help to boost resilience, notably by making security audits compulsory or setting minimum security standards to be met beforehand. regarding climate risks,

the industry is involved in testing techniques to adapt buildings to clay shrink - swell risk. drawing up a shared map of natural hazards could also be a powerful prevention tool, helping to better control the loss ratio through land - use planning. the recent langreney report iv draws similar conclusions and puts forward other ideas that we should explore jointly, such as an annual re - evaluation of the cat nat surcharge and its modulation according to climate risk exposure. public - private partnerships? the incorporation of climate considerations shows the importance of striking the right balance when splitting responsibilities between the insurance industry and government intervention. the ccr v public - private partnership has proved particularly fruitful in this regard and needs to be preserved and reinforced. it maintains the incentive to prevent and manage risks ( via the insurance premium ), and relies on various layers of mutualisation, with the government only providing a guarantee as a last resort. thanks to this specific national scheme, france is doing particularly well, with 32 % of the effects of climate disasters insured, compared with just 23 % for europe as a whole. clearly, we must not transfer risks too easily to public finances, which are already too constrained. but, going forward, could we not envisage, in some cases, a system of a government guarantee of last resort – clearly delineated in advance – to address other challenges, such as systemic cyber threats or legitimate social solidarity imperatives? page 6 of 9 these debates on the frontier of insurability are nothing new : as far back as in 1921, vi the american economist frank knight famously distinguished between risks – which are measurable and therefore insurable – and uncertainty – which is neither measurable nor insurable. in 2024, our world is undoubtedly more “ knightian ”, notably due to geopolitical uncertainties. but if we fail to work together to maintain the right level of protection, or even push back the boundaries of insurability, the industry could be increasingly criticised for turning away from certain geographical areas, certain risks or certain economic sectors. this has been made clear in many recent debates, on dealing with operating losses during covid, on the french overseas territories and on insuring homes against climate risks. what ’ s at stake here for the future is not only the new development opportunities, but also the role insurers should play in this new paradigm. iii. a need for increased dialogue between supervisors and supervisees the insurance industry ’ s ability to support and assimilate these