range of data, analysis and forecasts. in our decision - making, we evaluate three factors in particular : the inflation outlook, the dynamics of core inflation net of energy and food prices, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. if confidence in the slowing trend of inflation becomes more robust, monetary policy easing and interest rate cuts can be continued. without pre - committing to any specific interest rate path, let me add that, in my view, the recent increase in negative growth 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches risks in the euro area has reinforced the case for a rate cut at the next ecb monetary policy meeting in september – provided that disinflation is indeed on track. slide 7 : reflections on the ecb's next strategy review in 2025 let me now turn to longer term economic policy challenges facing europe. in the monetary policy domain and keeping in mind the ecb's forthcoming strategy assessment we need to gain a better understanding of the inflation dynamics of recent years and of the secular trends affecting the real economy and thus monetary policy. in the 2021 strategy review, we reviewed the previous asymmetric target, " below but close to 2 percent ", and replaced it with a symmetric 2 % target. symmetric in the sense that, as we stated, both negative and positive deviations from the target are regarded as equally undesirable. and we underlined the medium - term orientation for reaching the target. in my view, the symmetric, medium - term 2 % inflation target [ that we re - defined in 2021 ] has served us well, so far : it has provided a clear and comprehensible anchor, and enough flexibility both in terms of the temporal definition and the instruments used. this has allowed us to avoid taking any excessively drastic measures that the old ['below but close to 2 percent'] target might have implied. thus, the inflation target itself does not, in my view, need re - consideration. but we need to analyse the inflation dynamics of the recent years – and the functioning of the strategy – in more depth. geopolitical challenges and geoeconomic fragmentation, in particular, will continue to shape the operating environment of monetary policy in the years ahead. the changes that are taking place in the world economy, from trade wars to supply chain diversions, are likely to increase the probability of supply shocks and inflation volatility, but they also importantly shape the new equilibrium of the euro area economy that emerges after the current

owned companies would free up resources for the rapidly growing private enterprises. and given china ’ s sheer size and its growing links to the rest of the world, any challenge to china ’ s financial stability is an important issue outside china as well. in our programme, we will discuss many issues related to emerging market economies. i am very glad to note that we will enjoy keynote presentations from two very well - known economists in the field. in order of appearance on the programme, we have professor gerard roland from the university of california, berkeley, and professor justin yifu li n from peking university. they have both made tremendous contributions to our understanding of the complex links between various institutions and economic growth. economic transition – still under way in many parts of the world – provides us with many fundamental insights into economic theory and policy. a big question today – among others – is what kind of institutions and policies offer the best chance for inclusive economic growth. our keynote speakers will address these questions. they represent top quality academic research, and some also have a wealth of experience in policy institutions. the interaction between theory and practice is also the cornerstone of the research papers presented in the session devoted to banking and financial systems in emerging market economies. it is always interesting to note the many similarities countries share, e. g. in their banking systems, but more careful analysis always brings out many differences, too. both similarities 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches and differences are an important area of analysis before any policy recommendation. at the conference we also have a high - level panel devoted to more practical issues of central banking. we will be able to hear how different central banks are coping with the current global economic situation, where capital flows are large and often volatile. this brings its own challenges even to large emerging market economies. large capital flows can hamper the functioning of monetary policy, and financial stability may also sometimes be at risk, especially if external indebtedness is high. again, i welcome you all to the 25 anniversary conference of bofit. i hope that today ’ s programme will be intellectually inspiring and stimulating for us all. once more, a warm welcome! 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches