do otherwise will be wasting our scarce resources and the continuation of economic bondage. we should also guard against a situation where a number of what looks like good policies are developed, except that no one cares to ensure that such policies are implemented. one of the fathers of modern economics, adam smith, in his seminal publication, the wealth of nations, observed already in 1776 that “ africa had been poor from time immemorial because it lacked the navigable rivers and natural inlets that afford the benefits of low cost see - based trade ”. this suggests that a great deal of the continent ’ s lack of economic development can be attributed to a lack of basic infrastructure. this is especially so in rural africa where the majority of the population lives. lack of basic infrastructure such as roads, electricity and telecommunication are prevailing conditions in most rural africa. history has shown that in most regions of the world where a take - off in economic growth and development occurred, the “ green revolution ” preceded such a takeoff. this is true of china, india and even the usa. i therefore believe that the african economic take - off will be accelerated by an expansion of agricultural output. in fact, the agricultural sector is where africa ’ s comparative advantage lies, provided that the wto negotiations regarding the elimination of farm subsidy by advanced countries are successfully concluded. africa will then need to scale up its investment in the agriculture sector. for example, african farmers need training, they need fertilizers at reasonable prices, and they need market outlets. all these require significant investment. a related problem is the lack of tradable land rights in most african countries, especially for the rural communities. without ownership of the land, rural farmers would find it difficult to obtain funding from financial institutions to improve their production. i have attempted to point out what needs to happen for africa to be economically independent. among other things, there is a need for africa to continue to invest in its human capital, physical infrastructure, and institutional development. the road ahead is not easy, but the challenges are not without a solution. however, the situation demands of us a strong vision and effective leadership. i am convinced that africa ’ s economic problems can only be solved by the africans ourselves, and for us to succeed we need to focus our attention to what is important and necessary as opposed to what is currently convenient. i thank you.

nominal activity and hence future inflation. second, over the next few years the transition to a higher national saving rate is likely to imply a switch of resources from consumption in the private and public sectors to investment and net exports. it will not be easy to achieve that while keeping inflation on track to meet the target and maintaining steady growth in output. it is very likely that, when the ons publish next week their first estimate of economic growth in the final quarter of last year, it will show that the uk economy has now had 50 consecutive quarters of positive economic growth. no other g7 economy avoided falls in output over that period. but we should recognise, as i hope the english cricket team does tomorrow, that reaching a halfcentury is no time for complacency but for renewed concentration. third, the ability to buy goods from abroad at ever lower prices has kept down inflation at home and sustained faster growth in real incomes and consumption - just as richard cobden and john bright, and the other founders of the manchester school, argued more than 150 years ago. and it is not just consumers who are paying less for these items. retailers are too. but the inflation rate of goods and services produced in the uk has been rising modestly for two years or so. that has been offset in large part by a fall in import prices. although we can influence the former we have little control over the latter. there would be risks to output and inflation in the medium term if we were to allow inflation of domestically produced output to rise above target unless we were confident that falls in import prices would indeed continue for some years. the lesson that we should not place excessive weight on one month ’ s figures is as true of inflation as it is of retail sales. in december cpi inflation was 1. 6 %. three months ago it was 1. 1 %. six months ago it was 1. 6 %. yet the broad outlook for the economy - a central view of continuing steady growth with low inflation - changed rather little during the period. the mpc cannot fine tune short - run movements in output and inflation. when the mpc published its inflation report in november, some commentators said that inflation was seemingly stuck at around 1 %, and that if growth were to continue at around trend then it was difficult to see why the committee ’ s central view was that inflation would pick up to the 2 % target looking ahead around two years or so. since then inflation has risen by half a percentage point