of goods have been on a strong upward trend since 2014, as a result of improvements in the international competitiveness of the economy. regarding exports of services, their rise in 2017 is attributable to buoyant travel receipts as well as higher shipping receipts, as a result of both a recovery in global trade and sea transport and the fact that the impact of capital controls has weakened. growth is expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019, with private consumption and investment as its key drivers. consumption is expected to recover, mainly on the back of higher household real disposable income as a result of increased employment. the contribution of investment is expected to be positive, chiefly due to stronger business investment, reflecting the gradual restoration of confidence and liquidity in the financial system, as well as the acceleration of privatisations. exports are expected to remain robust, reflecting higher foreign demand and the restoration of the international competiveness of the economy. employment is expected to rise in line with the upturn of economic activity. the benign 3 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches outlook for employment, in particular dependent employment, is supported mainly by the positive performance of manufacturing and tourism, low labour costs, and labour flexibility ensured by the institutional framework. these forecasts are based on the assumption that the reform and privatisation programme will be implemented smoothly and according to the agreed time schedule. 2. 2. risks and challenges however, despite the positive forecasts, there are still downside risks that need to be addressed. the most important domestic risks are : any delays in the implementation of the recently agreed measures under the third review ; any delays in the fourth ( and last ) review signalling the end of the programme ; a higher than expected negative impact from high tax rates on economic activity ; and uncertainty about the greek government ’ s financing conditions after the end of the programme. in addition, there are external risks associated with developments in international financial markets and geopolitical factors, such as the refugee crisis. at the same time, the protracted economic crisis has left a number of stock imbalances that must be addressed over the medium term if the greek economy is to return to sustainable growth, most notably : high and persistent long - term unemployment ; the high stock of non - performing loans ; the investment gap ; the public debt overhang. these challenges need to be tackled in order to safeguard social cohesion, preserve greece ’ s high - quality human capital, facilitate the financing of the greek

yannis stournaras : investment in greece post - covid - 19 opening remarks by mr yannis stournaras, governor of the bank of greece, at the joint seminar of the bank of greece and the european investment bank, virtual, 2 march 2022. * * * i am happy to welcome you to the joint seminar of the bank of greece and the european investment bank. over the past years, the eib group had a crucial contribution in unlocking financing and promoting high - impact investments across greece. in close cooperation with leading greek banks and other partners, greece benefited more than any other country from the eib ’ s unique technical expertise, financial strength and environmental best practices. this seminar on investment and financing of the economy takes place at a time where both these elements are of paramount importance for the greek economy, i. e. after the pandemic crisis and the debt crisis, in order to succeed a swift recovery and sustainable growth over a longer horizon. economic activity is currently recovering from the recession caused by the pandemic and the lockdown measures adopted in 2020. the greek economy experienced the second biggest recession in the eurozone at – 9 % in 2020 but the pace of recovery is equally impressive. economic activity is estimated to have recovered in 2021 strongly, up by 8. 8 %, with the expansion of the vaccination programme and the gradual return of social and economic life to normalcy. for 2022, a growth rate of around 4. 7 % was envisaged just before the invasion of russia in ukraine. domestic demand will be the key driver of growth, mainly private consumption and investment. the external sector will contribute positively, but to a much lesser extent. the invasion of russia in ukraine creates an important supply side shock, which affects output negatively and increases energy prices in particular, but it is still rather early to estimate its impact. this will depend, among others, on the fiscal and monetary policy response at the european level, which is still not determined. the measures taken by the ecb, coupled with the supervisory flexibility provided by the ssm, have led to a significant improvement of liquidity in the banking system. the inclusion of greek government bonds in the pandemic emergency purchase programme of the ecb and the easing of collateral standards applied to eurosystem refinancing operations allow the supportive monetary stance in the euro area to be transmitted more effectively to the real economy. the bank of greece projects that the growth rate of