the resources boom that occurred when iron ore prices were last at these levels. there is some increased investment in train to maintain the current levels of production but not to materially increase them. so we have seen the effect of the increased demand in china reflected in the price not in higher export volumes. while a significant share ( around three - quarters ) of these profits from the high iron ore prices accrue to foreign shareholders, some flows to domestic households through direct and indirect share ownership. public sector revenue will also receive a boost, mainly through higher tax receipts and mining royalties. it is unclear what the governments will do with this unexpected revenue. hence, the domestic stimulus in china to offset the trade dispute has contributed to a short - term boost to the australian economy and significantly mitigated the impact of the trade disputes on us. how long this lasts will depend on the effectiveness and longevity of chinese domestic stimulus. the iron ore price has fallen from its peaks and we expect the iron price to decline further from here, and with it the terms of trade. but over the past year, we, along with the market, have been significantly surprised on the upside ( graph 3 ). https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2019 / sp - dg - 2019 - 08 - 15. html 4 / 10 8 / 15 / 2019 risks to the outlook | speeches | rba graph 3 australia also has significant exports to china in both tourism and education. to date, these have been broadly unaffected by the slowdown in the chinese economy. but a further significant slowing in the chinese economy and household incomes would clearly pose a risk. to date, the australian economy has been largely shielded from the effect of the trade disputes. but australia has been a major beneficiary from the rules - based global trading system over many decades. the current threats to that are clearly a major risk for the australian outlook over a longer horizon. consumption turning to the domestic economy, the primary risk for some time has been the outlook for consumption. the risks to consumption are always going to be important, because consumption is such a large share of the economy ( around three - fifths ). over the past few years, it has been challenging to assess both the current pace and outlook for consumption. in the first half of 2018, consumption had been recorded as growing at a solid pace, around 3 per cent. but the september quarter national accounts recorded both a notably slower pace of consumption growth in

risk having talked about two major near - term risk for the economic outlook, i would also remind you to take appropriate account of one risk that plays out over a longer horizon, namely climate risk. i talked about this in detail earlier in the year. [ 3 ] given your roles as risk managers, it is important that you have a useful framework to assess this risk to your business. climate is a challenging risk to assess but an increasingly necessary one. businesses need to take account of both the physical risks and the transition risks. physical risk is about the direct impact of climate on your business and the assets that it holds. what will be the effect of climate change on the price of an asset my company owns, particularly if it is a long - lived asset such as, for example, a mortgage? transition risk is about the potential effects to businesses as the country and the economy adjusts to the changes in the climate. this includes the adjustment to policy responses required to meet the paris objectives. as risk managers, you can bring your skills at calculating the expected future value of financial assets across a number of potential scenarios. in that sense, climate risk is not that different from other risks, though the challenge of translating uncertain future paths for the climate into paths for the economy and the prices of financial assets is harder than some of the other risks that you generally deal with. but it a challenge that needs to be confronted. is i would emphasise the importance of disclosure, echoing the comments by geoff summerhayes of apra and john price of asic, as well as the information that asic released earlier this week. [ 4 ] you should all be aware of the recommendations of the recent report of the task force on climaterelated financial disclosures ( tcfd ) chaired by michael bloomberg. it is important not just to have disclosure for disclosures sake, but to have consistent and informative disclosure. investors need to https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2019 / sp - dg - 2019 - 08 - 15. html 8 / 10 8 / 15 / 2019 risks to the outlook | speeches | rba be able to take account of that information in making their decisions, and be able to compare that across companies and across financial assets. risk management under uncertainty is always challenging, but the challenge can be reduced with better and consistent information both in terms of the data inputs and the consistency of the scenarios considered. interest rate benchmark reform the final issue i