of the policy. the conclusion : inflation didn ’ t change much, so the policy isn ’ t working. however, what is rational and essential is to examine what would have happened had the policy not been adopted in the first place. using several models, ecb staff estimated that, without our policies, inflation would have been a third of a percent negative in 2015 and would have stayed significantly negative throughout 2016, which would mean that we would have been in permanent deflation since last year. this is a significant result. recall that the final outcome was affected by the unexpected decline in the price of oil by 30 % from september to december. we estimate that two thirds of one percent of the registered growth in the past two years was due to our monetary policy. however, what we achieved in fostering internal demand was undone by the subsequent decrease of net exports in a decelerating world economy. these developments did not make our policy less effective, only ex - post insufficient for the desired outcome. bis central bankers ’ speeches naturally, all policies have limits. in the case of the instruments we are now using, this is particularly true of negative interest rates on our deposit facility. the reasons are more fundamental than just the effect on banks 1. despite negative rates throughout last year, the net interest income ( nii ) of euro area banks increased in percentage of assets, and their return on equity went up from 3. 5 % in 2014 to 5. 7 % in 2015 – which corresponds to a real return as inflation was zero. our policies also produced capital gains for banks, as securities ’ prices went up ( and yields down ), and impairment costs came down as the recovery reduced the amount of npls. more broadly, negative deposit facility rates have contributed to negative rates in the money market, reducing funding costs for banks. the whole yield curve has been lowered, which is the sole objective of using this particular monetary policy instrument. to normalise inflation in the euro area we urgently need higher growth that can reduce negative output and unemployment gaps, using all really available policies. if not monetary policy, then what? see cecchetti & schoenholtz ( 2016 ) how low can they go? bis central bankers ’ speeches

careers, they have increased their demand for retirement savings vehicles that are portable and have benefits that are less tied to longevity at a single firm. these developments have increased the opportunity for consumers to build their asset base through education and home ownership, exercise greater control over their retirement savings, as well as acquire at lower cost the goods and services that enhance daily life. with this increased access and availability of financial products, consumers also have to assume greater personal responsibility for managing the use of credit and their financial outcomes. as i have already noted, in the aggregate, household debt has grown more rapidly than income in recent years. of special relevance to this audience is that the increase in consumer debt loads in recent years is particularly apparent among younger adults. the majority of this increase is attributable to student loans, with a 2002 survey by nellie mae indicating a 66 percent increase in the average undergraduate student loan debt from 1997. 2 credit card debt is another factor contributing to the increased level of debt among young adults. the survey of consumer finances ( scf ) data shows that 18 - to - 24 year olds experienced on average about a 100 percent increase in credit card debt between 1992 and 2001, albeit from a small base, but still substantially higher than the rate for other households. 3 moreover, there are indications that some of these younger households are having difficulty managing their debt successfully. the 2001 scf indicates that delinquency rates ( one debt payment more than 60 days past due ) were twice as high among households headed by someone less than 35 years old than for households in the 35 - to - 44 - year age group. 4 finally, surveys continue to indicate that many workers are not currently saving for retirement, and many that are saving, by their own calculations, are not saving enough. 5 clearly, these statistics are sobering and raise some concerns about financial security. in recognition of the reality of both the promises and pitfalls of the consumer finance market, there has been a heightened appreciation for consumer protection. lawmakers and regulators are mindful of the possibility of abusive and fraudulent credit practices, commonly known as predatory lending, and have undertaken efforts to thwart such activity. in addition, employers have adopted strategies through plan design and education programs to encourage retirement savings of its workers. but consumers cannot rely solely on the efforts of others for financial security. they need to develop an understanding of the available options and be able to comprehend the implications of their financing and savings decisions. national student loan survey - college on