goods - is likely to remain sticky over the next few months, before starting to ease over the medium term. for now though, prices of exchange ratesensitive goods continue to accelerate. in the services sector, while some components have surprised on the downside over recent months, we may start to see the margins in some of these sectors, such as insurance and housing, also starting to pick up pace and, as such, exert upside pressure on overall inflation. as we have communicated before, the sarb will continue to monitor price developments and act to guide inflation back to the midpoint of the target band over the medium term. elsewhere in the world, major central banks have repeatedly indicated that they have not yet completed their policy normalisation. they may need to keep policy in restrictive territory for an extended period until clear signs emerge that inflation is returning sustainably to target. implications for growth 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches the number and pace of rate hikes needed to fight global inflation suggests we are likely to see weaker world growth in 2023, even ashousehold cash buffers and corporate profitability have limited the downside risk, so far. the international monetary fund ( imf ) forecasts global growth of 2. 9 % this year, after growth of 3. 4 % in 2022, and this means weaker demand for the exports of small, open economies such as south africa. implications for the domestic economy are twofold : first, directly through weaker growth, and second, through a possible deterioration in our external accounts. amid weaker exports volumes, combined with south africa's persistent and more intensive loadshedding as well as a deterioration of its ports and railway infrastructure, the sarb's gross domestic product ( gdp ) growth forecast for this year currently sits at 0. 3 %. stats sa published the q4 gdp report this morning and the outcome was much weaker than what we thought it would be. it seems like the adverse impact of these factors has already started materialising, placing further downside risk to our current forecast. 2022q4 gdp came in at - 1. 3 %, bringing growth for the year 2022 to 2. 0 % – below our estimate of 2. 5 % at the january mpc meeting. a deep dive into these numbers shows that the decline was broad - based over the quarter, with 7 out of the 10 sectors detracting from gdp growth. from the expenditure side, we note the pressures faced by households

all because there is no longer any exchange rate risk and because transaction costs are lower. austria is doing very well in international markets : at nearly 34 %, austria recorded the highest export share of gdp ever in 2000. this ratio had come to only 25 % when the country joined the eu and had risen to just under 30 % before participation in emu. not only did emu and the euro improve the external economic environment, it also required business and industry to make incisive operational and technical changes. companies had to establish new strategic positions on their markets and had to adjust to the more intense competition, which has shifted more and more to quality considerations. the euro and the single market have boosted product and service innovation in many areas and have thus added to europe's competitive strength. turning briefly to the developments during the first three years of emu, they bear impressive testimony to the fact that the smooth interplay between monetary and fiscal policy provides a solid foundation which was well suited to weathering the economic policy challenges of this period. monetary union and the euro have kept the euro area countries from being exposed to harmful intraeuropean exchange rate tensions of the type that many countries used to suffer when external shocks occurred. some of you may have not so fond memories of the ems crises of the years 1992 and 1993. it has become quite obvious that austria's inclusion in the stability - oriented economic and monetary union has protected our country from negative shocks much more adequately than was possible under past regimes. beyond emu – further political integration and enlargement emu represents a quantum leap in integration, a key step in completing the single european market. of course, competition is most pronounced within emu itself. monetary union - and only monetary union - guarantees that the single market can utilize the full potential of its economic power on the basis of a stable common currency and that the growing pressure of international competition on europe is buffered. the deepening of the european union that accompanies emu and the euro is therefore not simply the most suitable response to internationalization and globalization, but also a bulwark against any maneuvers to reverse liberalization in europe. deepening of european integration is crucial especially for small open economies like austria and luxembourg. by introducing the euro, european economic policymakers have assumed the responsibility for exploiting the opportunities and for addressing the challenges this move represents for austria or luxembourg and for europe as a whole. we must continue to observe the provisions of the stability and growth pact,