coming from both the macroeconomy and financial vulnerabilities in any given setting. it requires a lot of judgment to use, but this framework is helping to bring more rigour to our deliberations and to our communications. the growth - at - risk framework we are using today is a prototype, based on international experience with financial vulnerabilities and on a very simple macroeconomic model. work to enhance the model and incorporate more canadian detail into the financial vulnerabilities is well 3 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches underway and these enhancements should be deployed in 2020. meanwhile, we will continue to refine our core economic forecasting models to enrich the linkages between the financial sector and the economy. we have also begun to scope out a work program on the next - generation economic model to replace our core structural projection model, totem ( terms - of - trade economic model ). judging from past experience, this effort could take up to 5 to 10 years. the impact of digitalization a third area of focus for the bank in 2020 will be to assess the economic and financial impact of digitalization. as i mentioned earlier, we can see evidence of the spread of ai all around us. its effects on the economy may be profound. my main message in san francisco was that the fourth industrial revolution is likely to follow the pattern of the previous three. we can expect a significant disruption of workers in many industries. we can also expect the new technologies to lead to stronger growth in sectors where they are deployed. and the higher productivity that will result will increase the economy ’ s potential to grow. this will create new job opportunities widely throughout the economy, while also causing inflation to fall short of what our models would predict. so far, we have not seen signs of higher productivity in the economic data. once again, the experience of previous industrial revolutions can be instructive. in the last few years of the 1990s and early 2000s, we now know that productivity rose quickly. but the economic statistics of the time did not capture this until long after the fact because it is difficult to measure developments in new economic sectors. it is certainly possible that the same dynamics will emerge in the near future. in 2020, the bank will be working hard on new ways to detect and determine the economic impact of the fourth industrial revolution. one area that shows promise is to use ai to analyze big data for keywords and to build synthetic indicators of technological change. michelle alexopoulos

central bank of kenya impact investment forum : african rural and agricultural credit association ( afraca ) 4oth anniversary kenya school of monetary studies, nairobi keynote address by dr. patrick njoroge governor of the central bank of kenya november 21, 2017 as prepared for delivery ladies and gentlemen, good morning! forty years is a milestone. some argue that it is when middle age begins – you look back fondly at the things of your youth, but also look forward to using your experience and wisdom to achieve long - held goals. i am thus glad that you welcomed me to your birthday celebrations, and allowed me to share in such a significant moment. in 1977 the african rural and agricultural credit association ( afraca ) was created in response to a request made to the united nations food and agriculture organisation ( fao ), during the 1975 world food conference. this request, was that fao assist developing member countries establish regional agricultural credit associations ( racas ). the purpose of this racas was to promote cooperation and facilitate mutual exchange of information and expertise in the field of rural finance. some background research into afraca unearths a number of gems that indicate that you have been at the forefront in driving the rural and agricultural finance agenda in africa. you have had, and continue to have, a strong desire to turn regional diversity into a powerful driving force and catalyst for exchange, capacity building and cooperation to promote rural finance. i am deeply honoured to be part of this campaign to revolutionize finance for african agriculture. and we have something in common, for we at the central bank of kenya, share a similar vision, “ of a rural africa where everyone has access to sustainable financial services that support economic development, while maintaining social and environmental balance ”. that said, the task is enormous — nearly two - thirds of africa ’ s population depend on agriculture for their livelihood and the sector contributes over 40 percent of the continent ’ s gdp. i am very pleased today to be part of this first impact investment forum commemorating afraca ’ s 40th anniversary. the theme of the conference “ unlocking private sector capital to scale up impact investments in african agriculture ” promises to be a story of shifting the reality of agricultural finance as we know it today. africa has in the past relied largely on official development assistance and domestic public funding to address socio - economic challenges, many of which have few market - based solutions. we all know that these traditional funding flows have been on the decline over the last decade ; and