projections of the real gdp levels for the two countries. the simulations take into account the tariff hike from 10 percent to 25 percent on 200 billion dollars'worth of u. s. imports from china as of may 8, 2019, and assume an envisaged 25 percent tariff on the remaining u. s. imports from china as well as retaliation by china. although the impact differs between the two countries in the short run, the trade friction will equally exert downward pressure on real gdp in both countries by around 0. 4 percent in the long run. the right - hand chart shows the impact of the trade friction on the global economy. the tariff hikes implemented in 2018 are exerting downward pressure on global real gdp for 2019 by more than 0. 2 percent. if the 25 percent tariff is imposed on almost all items imported from china, it is estimated that the global real gdp figures for 2019 and 2020 will be pushed down by around 0. 4 percent and 0. 5 percent, respectively. the united states recently announced that it will impose additional tariffs on the remaining imports, worth approximately 300 billion dollars, and will raise tariffs by 5 percentage points on the u. s. imports from china that already have been taxed. as trade negotiations have not come to a conclusion, attention should continue to be paid to the fact that the global economy still faces downside risks. the third factor is the outlook for the world semiconductor market. deceleration in world semiconductor sales became notable from mid - 2018. various reasons have been pointed out as the background to this ; for example, a halt in expansion of demand for data centers, a prolonged replacement cycle for smartphones, and a decline in business fixed investment related to machine tools - - which largely are equipped with semiconductors - - due mainly to deterioration in the u. s. - china trade friction. the left - hand side of chart 5 compares the forecasts for the year - on - year growth rate in the semiconductor market made by the world semiconductor trade statistics inc. in autumn 2018 and spring 2019 by region. the forecasted market growth rate for 2019 has been revised sharply downward in the spring 2019 forecast, from a slight increase in the autumn 2018 forecast, especially for the u. s. market. the right - hand chart shows the year - on - year rate of change in world semiconductor shipments. as the pace of increase in shipments was fast over the past two years, recovery in the semiconductor market likely will take time. b.

haruhiko kuroda : opening remarks – 2021 boj - imes conference opening remarks by mr haruhiko kuroda, governor of the bank of japan, at the 2021 boj - imes conference, 24 may 2021. * * * i. introduction it is my great pleasure to welcome you all to our boj - imes conference. this is the 26th conference, and for the first time in its history since 1983, the conference is being held online. on behalf of the conference organizers, i would like to thank you all for your participation. the theme of this year ’ s conference is “ adapting to the new normal : perspectives and policy challenges after the covid - 19 pandemic. ” more than a year has passed since the outbreak of the pandemic, during which time it has caused enormous loss and damage to people all over the world. finally, we are beginning to see the light at the end of this dark tunnel as effective vaccines are being rolled out. it is at this juncture that our conference poses the following questions : what will the so - called new normal look like that emerges after the pandemic? and, how are we going to adapt to this new normal? these questions are the central theme of the conference. as a starting point, i would like to provide some common ground for developing our discussions. specifically, i would like to focus on three issues : the economic perspectives, policy challenges, and the nature of the post - pandemic new normal. ii. economic perspectives a. uneven recession and recovery in considering the economic perspectives, let me begin by touching on the characteristics of the recession caused by the pandemic and of the following recovery. simply put, the most important feature of both the recession and the recovery is their unevenness. each recession is different, but this time, the difference in the severity of the downturn among industries, business types, and occupations has been particularly dramatic. people have changed their behavior under the pandemic and in response to the containment measures. demand for goods and services that require in - person contact has plummeted. these industries have taken a huge hit and their recovery has been slow. the unevenness of the recession and the ongoing recovery could reinforce three trends that have continued since around the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. the first trend is an increase in saving. against the backdrop of uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and recovery, saving has increased substantially