' s large - scale stimulus measures. meanwhile, exports are expected to follow a moderate upward trend on the back of improvement in overseas economies. reflecting this outlook, japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential through the projection period. looking at the medians of the policy board members'forecasts in the january 2017 outlook report, the real gdp growth rate is projected to be 1. 4 percent for fiscal 2016, 1. 5 percent for fiscal 2017, and 1. 1 percent for fiscal 2018 ( chart 4 ). let me explain the outlook in detail by major component. as for business fixed investment, with some time lag, the past slowdown in emerging economies and yen appreciation are likely to exert downward pressure for the time being, mainly in manufacturing firms. however, throughout the projection period, it is likely to continue to see a moderate uptrend. this is because, in a situation where extremely stimulative financial conditions - - such as low interest rates and accommodative lending attitudes - - have been maintained, fixed investment will be positively affected by the effects of fiscal measures including projects conducted under the fiscal investment and loan program and tax reductions for capital investment, as well as by moderate improvement in growth expectations. moreover, corporate profits are projected to improve, but even if they become weaker than expected to some degree, business fixed investment is likely to be supported in particular by investment ( 1 ) in redevelopment projects in view of the 2020 tokyo olympics, ( 2 ) in research and development for growth areas, ( 3 ) in labor - saving machinery and equipment in order to deal with labor shortages, and ( 4 ) for maintenance and replacement of equipment to address deterioration from aging. private consumption is expected to increase moderately, supported by a steady improvement in employee income, as well as the wealth effects stemming from a rise in stock prices and the effects resulting from the set of stimulus measures. housing investment is likely to continue improving. exports will likely continue their pick - up trend for the time being, as the effects of the slowdown in emerging economies wane, and thereafter are projected to increase moderately. this is because it is forecasted that the growth rate of the world trade volume will accelerate gradually with the further recovery in overseas economies, and that japan's share of exports will increase moderately, due in part to a worldwide recovery in the sector of capital goods. industrial production is projected to increase modestly, reflecting a rise in demand at home

european central bank has hiked its policy rate from minus 0. 5 per cent to 4 per cent since last summer. experience shows that it takes some time before higher interest rates are fully reflected in activity in society. and then some more time before the dampened demand affects inflation. therefore, the interest rate increases haven't yet been fully passed through to activity in denmark. but the banks and those who borrow money are affected by the higher interest rates. the interest rate policy pursued by the ecb – and which we implement in denmark under our fixed exchange rate policy – has suited the danish economy well. developments in recent years have illustrated how the fixed exchange rate policy contributes to stability in denmark : even when the economic waters around us are slightly rougher to navigate in. although the interest rate increases have been significant, most of us in this room remember when interest rates were even higher. this gives rise to the question : when are interest rates high? and when are they high enough? this is a very good question with which scholars in many countries are grappling at the moment. i don't have the answer. but our opinion is that higher interest rates will – sooner or later – get in - flation under control. at the same time, it's important that fiscal policy doesn't counteract the effect of higher interest rates. 2 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches monetary policy works through, among other measures, the interest rates that customers encounter in the banks. and our analyses show that interest rate changes in the banks have occurred faster in denmark than in the euro area. the difference between the lending rate and the money market interest rate – that is the lending margin – has decreased during the past years. this reflects competition between the institutions to lend money. at the same time, we're seeing remarkably low impairment charges and losses. conversely, banks have had less need to attract deposits because depos - its have been growing over several years. the large customer funding surplus reduces the banks'incentive to raise their deposit rates. we can see that households – including those with large deposits – have so far only sought alternatives such as time deposits and bonds to a lim - ited extent. i believe it's important to remember that deposit rates are set in the mar - ket and that transparency and competition between the financial institu - tions are key elements in keeping prices in check. and that leads me to your advisory task. you are well experienced in