the economy in 2014 and 2015. bis central bankers ’ speeches since the end of what is now called the great recession in mid - 2009, the u. s. economy has experienced 17 consecutive calendar quarters of positive growth of real gdp. however, the compound annual rate of growth over that period has only been around 2 ¼ percent, close to prevailing estimates of the economy ’ s potential growth rate. thus, we have made limited progress in closing the substantial output gap that was created during the recession. a similar conclusion is drawn from an assessment of labor market conditions. although the unemployment rate has declined by about 2 ¾ percentage points since peaking at 10 percent in october of 2009, a significant portion of that decline reflects the substantial decline of the labor force participation rate over that period. it should also be noted that since the previous business cycle peak at the end of 2007, the decline of the labor force participation rate has been more than accounted for by a decline in participation of people in the prime working age of 25 to 54. the inflation data are also consistent with this overall picture of an economy operating well below its full potential. total inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) deflator, has been quite volatile in recent years due to sharp fluctuations in energy prices. core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components and thereby may be a better guide as to underlying inflation, slowed from around 2 percent in early 2012 to just above 1 percent in mid - 2013. in recent months it has shown signs of stabilizing, but remains well below the fomc ’ s expressed goal of 2 percent for total inflation. fortunately, inflation expectations remain relatively stable at levels somewhat above the current inflation rate. this stability should help prevent an undesirable further drop in inflation relative to our 2 percent objective. that said, there are some nascent signs that the economy may be doing better. for example, based on the first estimate, which is subject to revision, real ( gross domestic product ) gdp increased at a 2. 8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2013, above the trend of the past four years. and the most recent payroll employment report showed a pickup in the monthly pace of job gains. the 3 - month moving average rose back above a 200, 000 pace after slowing to about 150, 000 as of july of this year. i hope that this marks a turning point for the economy. but before we rush to this conclusion a few more cautionary

lee hsien loong : consolidation and liberalisation : building world - class banks speech by mr lee hsien loong, deputy prime minister of singapore and chairman of the monetary authority of singapore, at the association of banks annual dinner, singapore, 29 june 2001. * * * introduction two years ago, mas embarked on the first phase of a programme to liberalise the banking industry. the aim was to strengthen our local banks through competition, provide singaporeans with quality banking services, and enhance singapore's position as an international financial centre. we phased in the liberalisation measures progressively, to give local banks time to upgrade themselves to meet the competition, and maintain the stability of the financial system. the first package of measures in 1999 comprised a few main elements. mas permitted 4 qualifying full banks ( qfbs ) to establish up to 10 locations each, relocate their existing branches and share atms among themselves. we granted 8 new restricted bank licences to banks that wanted to expand their wholesale s $ business. we also gave offshore banks more flexibility to lend in singapore dollars and engage in s $ swaps, and even wider leeway to 8 qualifying offshore banks. these measures marked the start of a major and irreversible process of change. we could not foresee exactly how the industry would respond and develop. so mas committed to reviewing progress at the half - way mark before deciding on further liberalisation measures. we have now completed this review. local banks'upgrading and consolidation since the first liberalisation package was announced, the local banks have made progress in building up their capabilities. they have generally strengthened their management teams, and invested heavily in infrastructure to provide banking services more efficiently, especially via electronic channels. they have improved their customer relationship management systems, which will allow more effective data mining of their customer databases and cross - selling of multi - sector products. local banks have also been seeking opportunities and expanding their presence in the region. an important and more visible sign that local banks are gearing up for competition is of course the process of consolidation that is underway. the opening gambit was made on 12 june when ocbc announced that it was making a voluntary general offer for keppel capital holdings which owns keppel tatlee bank. ten days later, dbs made an unsolicited bid for oub. and just three hours ago, uob made a competing bid after reaching agreement with the controlling shareholders of oub. all the local banks are now busy reassessing