the form of an eye - catching headline. there is always reason to keep the risk of deflation in mind, since falls in the general price level are sometimes associated with considerable problems in the economy. it is important, however, to ascertain whether the subdued price developments are a result of weak demand or due to positive changes on the supply side of the economy. at the moment there is no doubt that the latter is the dominant factor. if a pair of jeans becomes cheaper because the dollar has fallen, or the price of plasma tvs has been halved because their production has increased in china, or the price of food goes down because the competition in the retail food trade has toughened, it is something that we essentially should be happy about. but should there be a sharp fall in demand then the situation would be completely different of course. so what risks do we see that could cause inflation to deviate from the path in the main scenario? there are a number of risks in the inflation assessment that have been in focus for some time, e. g. the twin deficits in the us economy, the developments in the swedish krona, and productivity growth. in addition, new risks have emerged in connection to specific factors, such as the developments in food prices, and these are creating great uncertainty over how inflation will be affected in the period ahead – not least in the short run. compared with the previous inflation report the main scenario on this occasion has taken account of the downside risks to inflation to a greater extent ; e. g. increased international, as well as domestic, competition is now forecast to have a somewhat bigger impact on swedish prices than previously assumed. there are arguments, however, that this could nevertheless entail an underestimation of inflation as much as an overestimation. that was shown, for instance, by the latest price data released last friday, where the inflation outcome for february was actually a little higher than the forecast in the inflation report that we published today. individual monthly figures for inflation are difficult to forecast, however, and next month the forecast could just as easily overshoot the outcome. in the main scenario productivity is also assumed to follow the normal cyclical pattern, but just like the effects of the international competition there are arguments to suggest that this pattern may imply an underestimation or overestimation of the future trend. the overall assessment of the different risk factors is that the risk outlook is balanced, i. e. that

most or all of their retail activity online to identify states in which they have a significant level of deposits, lending, or other banking activity in which they would have obligations under either the retail or community development test, as appropriate. consistency and predictability there was also wide support for making cra definitions and evaluation criteria clearer and taking other actions to improve the consistent and predictable application of the regulations during evaluations. perhaps more important, the commenters strongly supported the agencies continuing the tradition of working together to have one set of rules, consistent interpretive guidance, and regular examiner training to ensure that the cra is implemented as consistently as possible both within and across the agencies. at the federal reserve, we agree that it is important for the banking agencies to take a consistent approach. metrics finally, there was broad support for expanding the use of metrics in cra evaluations, where appropriate, especially if they are clearly articulated, are used in tandem with performance 5 / 7 bis central bankers'speeches context information, and add to the transparency of cra ratings. we recognize that effective and predictable evaluations rely on good metrics. metrics, in turn, require good data. currently, cra evaluations use hmda data, which are very useful in understanding where mortgages are made, to whom, and at what cost. moreover, hmda data are collected from both banks and non - bank mortgage lenders. but the data collected under cra to support our analysis of small business and small farm loans are not as comprehensive as mortgage lending data. the dodd - frank wall street reform and consumer protection act charges the consumer financial protection bureau with promulgating regulations for the collection of small business loans, and that data should be very helpful when they become available. separately, the data collected under the cra on community development loans are not adequate to support the analysis of a separate community development test, so it may be necessary to consider a better reporting system. collecting data and developing clear metrics will provide the improved clarity and ex ante predictability that banks seek. more and better data will allow for more meaningful metrics by which we can evaluate performance criteria, such as the borrower and geographic distribution of lending and how a bank ’ s performance compares with other similarly situated banks. we may also consider providing more baseline information that describes a bank ’ s performance context, such as the demographic and economic information that helps to describe the credit needs and opportunities present in each assessment area. in addition,