share of turkish lira deposits will continue to be a key component of our disinflation path. on the other hand, although capital inflows have slowed recently due to the decline in risk appetite in global markets, we see that capital flows to turkiye have followed a moderate course. in the coming period, capital inflows may be volatile due to geopolitical developments. the increasing confidence in the turkish lira among both domestic and foreign residents in the recent period continues to positively impact on our reserves. in august, we initiated reverse swap transactions for sterilization. while gross reserves increased by usd 36 billion between march 22 and november 1, 2024, our net fx position excluding swaps improved by usd 110 billion. as of november 1, gross reserves exceeded usd 159 billion. our net reserves excluding swaps rose to usd 46 billion, when we add sell - side fx swaps conducted in domestic markets. our tight monetary policy stance has contributed to the improvement in risk sentiment towards turkiye and the decline in the risk premium. as a result of the confidence in our policies, the level and composition of reserves improved significantly. although the risk premium followed a volatile course due to geopolitical developments, it maintained its moderate course. moreover, rating upgrades by credit rating agencies supported the external financing outlook. medium - term projections distinguished participants, 8 / 10 bis - central bankers'speeches against the backdrop of the economic outlook i have presented so far, i will now proceed to share our medium - term projections. we preserved our assumptions on external demand. we revised down our crude oil assumption for 2024 and 2025 due to realizations. meanwhile, we revised our food price assumption upwards owing to the unprocessed food inflation. our medium - term forecasts are based on an outlook in which the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained improvement is achieved in the inflation outlook. our forecasts are also based on the assumption that economic policy co - ordination will continue progressively. in this context, we revised our year - end inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 upwards to 44 percent and 21 percent, respectively. we predict that inflation will decline to 12 percent at end - 2026. we target inflation to stabilize at 5 percent in the medium term. the lower and upper ends of the forecast range correspond to 42 and 46 percent for 2024, 16 and 26 percent for 2025, and finally 6 and 18 percent for 2026. the

durmus y lmaz : recent developments in international markets and their impact on the turkish economy keynote address by mr durmus yılmaz, governor of the central bank of the republic of turkey, at the euromoney turkey finance & investment forum, istanbul, 18 june 2008. * * * dear guests, i am delighted to be here to address such a distinguished audience in istanbul. i hope this timely and important forum will contribute much to debates about future growth prospects of turkey, through exploring many prominent issues. let me begin with recent developments in international markets and their impacts on the turkish economy. as you may all know, both developed and emerging countries have been suffering from higher inflation and lower growth rates for a while. there are two main reasons behind this undesirable economic situation. one is the turbulence that emerged in the second half of 2007 in financial markets ; and the other one is the continuously increasing global commodity prices. the second half of 2007 was not an easy period for central bankers – and 2008 is likely to be even more challenging. there is an apparent acceleration in consumer prices inflation all over the world and the annual inflation even in developed countries is at its highest level of the last 16 years. improvement in the wealth of big developing countries such as china and india has created a demand - driven pressure on commodity prices. moreover, the utilization of foodstuff in the bio - fuels production combined with the unfavorable weather conditions last year has led to further increases in commodity prices. despite economic slowdown expectations in developed countries, the surge in commodity prices has continued in 2008 and the oil prices reached usd 140 per barrel. on the other hand, the sub - prime mortgage crisis that has started in the u. s. in mid 2007 has grown to a level that threatens the stability of financial system in many countries. the growth expectations were scaled back significantly. the turbulence might also have negative implications on the turkish economy. nevertheless, economic indicators show that the turkish economy ’ s resistant to fluctuations in global markets has increased substantially, compared to the previous episodes of turbulences. the current relative resilience is an outcome of the successfully and decisively implemented macroeconomic policies since 2001 together with comprehensive structural reforms. still, we are facing challenges now. the year - on - year consumer price inflation climbed to double - digit levels in may and it will probably remain high till the last quarter of this year and then decline gradually. moreover, the growth rate of the gdp stood