increase with asian competitors. bis central bankers ’ speeches for the time being, job creation is more likely to rebound in sectors that did well prior to the crisis, and indeed this is what we have seen over the course of 2011. public sector job creation has been strong in 2010 and 2011, which has given way to stronger private sector job creation in the second half of 2011. stronger public and private investment should be expected to result in better employment creation over the medium term. the second disorder is in financial markets in advanced economies. high debt levels in the developed world and the european sovereign debt crisis have triggered unconventional policy responses and a variety of risks is evident. the most troubling is the possibility of the current financial crisis intensifying sharply and resulting in even more credit contraction, sales of assets, and eventually stronger real economy effects. a severe worsening in the growth prospects for europe would result in a calamitous fall in demand for exports from around the world. a global recession could ensue from this kind of risk. south africa ’ s trade exposure to europe is about 27 percent of total exports. a second and more plausible scenario is for a sustained period of very weak credit extension in europe due to the combination of the basel iii capital requirements and exposure to sovereign debt in peripheral european economies. this outcome might play itself out as a serious drag on european growth, with gdp growing at roughly half the average rate achieved over the last twenty years. a third possibility would be for financial contagion to affect emerging market economies. in this instance, countries with financial and / or economic vulnerabilities would experience local currency asset sales, capital flight, and knock - on effects into confidence of consumers and businesses in the real economy. such effects would very likely occur in the event of a financial and economic meltdown in europe, but would not necessarily only come out of such a combination of circumstances. the private sector in emerging economies remains in deficit to the rest of the world and only asian emerging economies have net foreign asset positions. as european banks recapitalise, the resulting deleveraging could reduce foreign funding for emerging markets significantly. european banks provide about 30 per cent of latin american bank credit and 40 per cent of eastern europe ’ s so that a contraction in eu bank loans to these countries could constrain their economic growth significantly. the prolonged global crisis and the vulnerabilities created or exposed by policy efforts in south africa and elsewhere to address the crisis have to some extent

of quantitative easing. https : / / www. ons. gov. uk / economy / grossdomesticproductgdp / articles / vatturnoverinitialresearchanalysisuk / december june 2014 financial stability report. chakraborty, gimpelewicz and uluc ( 2017 ). bracke and tenreyro ( 2016 ) and benetton, bracke and garbarino ( 2018 ). baptista et al ( 2016 ). bank of england and procyclicality working group ( 2014 ). for example, albertazzi, becker and boucinha ( 2018 ) show evidence of the portfolio rebalancing channel from the ecb ’ s asset purchase programme. all speeches are available online at www. bankofengland. co. uk / speeches new, highly granular data are also coming on stream on payment, credit and banking flows. some of these have been used to help predict, or track, movements in economic activity. they have had some success. for example, in the us a dataset of over 12 billion credit and debit card transactions over a 34 month period has recently been used to analyse consumption patterns by age, firm size, metropolitan area and sector. in time, it is possible these sorts of data could help to create a real - time map of financial and activity flows across the economy, in much the same way as is already done for flows of traffic or information or weather. once mapped, there would then be scope to model and, through policy, modify these flows. this is an idea i first talked about six years ago. today, it looks closer than ever to being within our grasp. these are all areas where dafm could contribute importantly to efforts to improve the quality and timeliness of data on the macro - economy and financial system. as is well - recognised, the scope for improvements in the quality of national accounts data is considerable. and those measurement challenges will only become greater as we move towards an increasingly digital and service - oriented economy. velocity a second dimension of the big data revolution is its greater frequency and timeliness. higher - frequency data can give new or timelier insights into trends in financial markets and the economy. it can also sometimes help with thorny identification problems, which otherwise plague both big data ( as the google flu example demonstrated ) and classic econometric methods ( as the dsge example demonstrated ). the crisis revealed that, in situations of stress