2022 - 15 ( san francisco : federal reserve bank of san francisco, june 21 ), https : / / www. frbsf. org / research - andinsights / publications / economic - letter / 2022 / 06 / how - much - do - supply - and - demand - drive - inflation. all of these studies agree that both supply and demand shocks contributed to the surge in inflation as well as its fall. - 4as i have indicated, the big picture is that goods inflation surged early on in 2020 and 2021, followed by prices for services excluding housing, and then housing, with some overlap in those steps. disinflation has followed that course in reverse. core goods inflation rose, after almost a year of social distancing shifted spending from services and after production and delivery of goods was disrupted by the pandemic. this was a big change because over the long expansion leading to the pandemic, core goods prices actually fell, slightly but consistently. 5 on a 12 - month basis, core pce goods inflation rose above zero in december 2020, reached a peak of 7. 6 percent in february 2022, and fell again below zero at the end of 2023. in july of this year, it was negative 0. 5 percent. this recent disinflation offset still - rising prices for services and helped reduce overall inflation. goods inflation has reverted to its longer - term pattern as demand has moderated and supply chain problems have abated. this is reflected by various indexes of supply chain bottlenecks that showed the supply - side disruptions that contributed early on to surging inflation have now retreated to pre - pandemic levels. 6 other data show that computer chip supply, which fell far short of demand early in the pandemic, is back to normal conditions as well. food and energy prices, always subject to larger ups and downs than other parts of inflation, rose also early on. food inflation increased in 2020 as shoppers began stockpiling groceries and as warehouses and production facilities had difficulty staffing due to covid. after russia ’ s invasion of ukraine, energy price inflation reached a peak the causes most often cited by economists are competition from globalized trade and productivity gains, including from technological advances. the most commonly used indicators of supply chain bottlenecks are the global supply chain pressure index produced by the federal reserve bank of new york, the supplier deliveries index from the institute for supply management, and the percent

of grain ultimately became members of the exchange, supported by an underpinning of standardized measures of grain quality and minimum standards for exchange members. this example of how standardization helped jump - start a marketplace may provide insights regarding the current challenges in the subprime markets as well as the development of the community development investment market. as of january 2008, the most recent month for which data are available, about 24 percent of subprime adjustable - rate mortgages ( arms ) were 90 or more days delinquent, twice the level one year earlier. 3 roughly 190, 000 foreclosures were started on these mortgages in the fourth quarter, up 11 percent from the previous quarter. 4 the cost of foreclosures is high for lenders, investors, communities and causes severe disruption and distress to individuals and families. with the continuing high rates of foreclosure and the high costs associated with foreclosures, it is in the interest of lenders, investors, and borrowers to develop prudent loan modification programs to help borrowers on a larger scale and at sustainable levels. efforts to streamline or standardize the loan modification process could lower transaction costs, provide timely relief for distressed borrowers, and reduce uncertainties in the market for subprime mortgage - backed securities. industry and consumer groups are exploring loan modification templates, clarification of accounting rules, automated electronic platforms, and standards to streamline the loan modification process. the hope now alliance – a broadbased coalition of government - sponsored enterprises, industry trade associations, counseling agencies, and mortgage servicers – is making efforts to find ways to help borrowers through loan modification plans. randall s. kroszner ( 1999 ), " can the financial markets privately regulate risk? the development of derivatives clearing houses and recent over - the - counter innovations ", journal of money, credit, and banking, vol. 31 ( august ), p. 600. board staff calculation based on data from first american loanperformance. board staff calculation based on data from the mortgage bankers association. the board has also sought to ensure clear lending standards through stricter regulations prohibiting abusive and deceptive practices in the mortgage market under the authority of the home ownership and equity protection act ( hoepa ). this proposal is intended to protect consumers and to preserve consumer choice by targeting protections to borrowers who face the most risk. under hoepa, the board is considering changes that would stem abusive practices by