. in italy, the robust recovery of gdp caused by the full reopening of businesses after the end of the public health emergency is fading. at a time when the international outlook is weakening, tightened monetary policy aims to counter inflation and the support ensured by fiscal policy has to be reduced, achieving an adequate and stable economic growth will require a high level of public and private investment and the effective implementation of structural reforms. the capacity of households and firms to respond to unexpected and particularly violent shocks, such as those of the last three years, must form the basis for public actions designed to make our economy less rigid and slow. over the next few years, the measures set out in the national recovery and 1 / 11 bis - central bankers'speeches resilience plan ( nrrp ) are expected to give a considerable boost to economic activity ; implementing its set of investments and reforms within the agreed time frame will be crucial. gdp returned to growth in the first quarter of this year, buoyed by the recovery in consumption and by the further expansion in investment. as in the rest of the euro area, the weakening of manufacturing activity was countered by the good results for private services ; in this sector, non - negligible rises in final prices are associated with the healthy demand, especially in the tourism and leisure sector. given the tighter financing conditions and the slowdown in global trade, we expect gdp to increase moderately over the next few quarters. according to the estimates published in mid - june, gdp growth could exceed 1 per cent over the year, and should stay at around this figure on average over the next two years. these are forecasts that are still highly uncertain and with risks mostly on the downside. together with the conflict in ukraine, which may lead to further rises in commodity prices and a decline in the confidence of firms and households, there are fears connected to the evolution of global economic activity, which could be affected to a greater than expected extent by the monetary tightening under way in the leading economies, as well as those linked to the risk of an excessive tightening of credit supply conditions. from december 2021 to may of this year, the interest rates on new loans to firms and on new mortgages for households went up in italy by around 360 and 280 basis points respectively, to 4. 8 and 4. 2 per cent. the cost of bank funding is also on the increase, but the effects of the rises in the key interest rates on those on sight deposits are still very limited. this

behind the initial recovery plans, partly due to the suspension of enforcement proceedings during the most acute phases of the pandemic. as for government - guaranteed operations, the older ones have the largest deviations as their recovery plans were drawn up less rigorously. the recent rise in market yields has also increased the interest payable to holders of bonds, often at floating rates, issued by special purpose vehicles against nonperforming loans thus reducing the share of the collection used to repay the principal. at the end of 2022, the total amount of outstanding government - guaranteed senior bonds was around €12 billion. if we consider the few operations whose recoveries, according to the updated plans, would not be sufficient to fully repay the senior bonds, the total enforced guarantee could amount to around €220 million. however, this sum should be covered by the provision funded by fees paid by banks for granting the guarantee and by the amounts already earmarked in the public budget for this purpose, without the need for further government funding. some recent regulatory reforms have addressed specific intermediaries'business lines, such as crowdfunding services, and specific products, such as covered bonds and securitizations. this has resulted in potentially more effective safeguards. however, to maintain a comprehensive overview of the risk exposure of supervised entities, we should always consider these operations as part of their overall corporate management. in this respect, we are committed to strengthening cooperation and dialogue between the various authorities involved. financial services and technology 5 / 11 bis - central bankers'speeches technological innovation is reshaping the financial services industry, making it possible for intermediaries to overcome the barriers created by the need for physical interaction with customers, to achieve cost savings, and to test new forms of cooperation with supervised and non - supervised entities. while intermediaries should seize these opportunities by adjusting their business models as needed, neither they nor the supervisory authorities should underestimate the risks of technological change. last year, we conducted a survey of the digitalization strategies of the less significant banks to encourage debate on these issues. we found widespread awareness of the importance of investing in technological innovation, albeit only as a means to increase business volumes and revenues by reaching customers who cannot be served by the physical distribution network. the potential for development in terms of cost - cutting and of process and product innovation was less of a consideration. more marginal still was understanding the value of the information acquired in the context of financial intermediation. developing good