capital for productivity gains to be realized, the benefits of high - tech investment may become visible only after an extended period during which firms are making the necessary investments in intangibles. longer - term prospects for productivity growth historical analyses of the sources of fluctuations in productivity growth are challenging, but not nearly so challenging as trying to predict how productivity will evolve in the future. however, because the rate of productivity growth is a primary determinant of economic performance, policymakers have few options other than to try to forecast future gains in productivity. for example, estimates of long - term productivity growth are needed to determine the rate of output growth that the economy can sustain in the long run without generating inflationary pressures. the task of trying to predict the behavior of productivity in the medium - to - long run is complicated by the fact that productivity growth generally varies with the business cycle, tending to be below its longer - term trend when the economy is contracting and above that trend when the economy is in the early stages of an expansion ( see basu and fernald, 2001, for a discussion ). ( this well - documented pattern makes the strong growth of productivity during the early part of this decade, a period that featured a recession and generally slow growth, all the more remarkable. ) economists use statistical methods to try to abstract from cyclical influences to determine the longer - term trend in productivity. what do they find? as of a couple of years ago, the consensus among leading researchers was that productivity in the nonfarm business sector was likely to grow at about 2 - 1 / 2 percent per year in the longer term, close to the rate of productivity growth achieved during the 1995 to 2000 period ( see, for example, baily, 2003 ; gordon, 2003 ; and jorgenson, ho, and stiroh, 2004 ). on the one hand, recent data revisions to the national income and product accounts have shown that productivity growth over the past few years was slightly weaker than we thought, leading some analysts to revise down their estimates of trend productivity growth about 1 / 4 percentage point or so per year. on the other hand, the fact that productivity growth has remained solid in recent years increases confidence that a larger fraction of those productivity gains reflects longer - term developments and a smaller fraction reflects cyclical factors. on net, the recent experience does not appear to require a significant rethinking of long - term productivity trends. indeed, recent estimates by leading economists continue to peg the expected longer

francois villeroy de galhau : financing of very small enterprises ( vses ) introductory speech by mr francois villeroy de galhau, governor of the bank of france, at the symposium on the financing of very small enterprises ( vses ), organised by the bank of france in conjunction with the federation of approved management centres, paris, 15 january 2016. * * * ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the banque de france for this symposium on the financing of very small enterprises or vses. it was conceived and organised in conjunction with the federation of approved management centres, and i would like to extend my warmest thanks to them, and in particular to their president yves marmont. i am very pleased to have developed such a close and lasting relationship with your organisation, which plays a vital role in supporting smes and vses. this event would also have been impossible without the help of the individuals and organisations who have agreed to take part in our three round tables today, and i would like to thank them sincerely for their contribution. it is a particular pleasure for me to be able to open this symposium today. as you know, just a few months ago, i had the honour of submitting a report to the prime minister on the financing of business investment, the first proposed recommendation of which was to “ improve access to credit for very small businesses, especially cash loans ”. this is our focus today. although my role has changed since then, my belief in the fundamental importance of this issue remains the same. indeed, my conviction has been reinforced by the banque de france ’ s own commitment to supporting vses, both at a central level and through its local presence in france ’ s regions. one of the main advantages of this nationwide network is that it makes it easier to listen to and support local businesses, the majority of which are clearly vses. through its local branch network, the banque de france is responsible for dealing with credit mediation applications. it provides valuable insight for economic and social actors by publishing statistics on vses, and is the only central bank in the eurosystem to publish data in this level of detail. in addition, the banque de france conducts studies into vse finances and their positioning in the french economic landscape. clearly, this symposium is not just a one - off event reflecting a passing interest in a subject that ’ s currently in the spotlight. in fact, it is part of an ongoing and enduring initiative, and will provide additional impetus to