billion ( i. e. by a factor of 42. 5 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches growth rate of total gdp as long as they are not counteracted by increasing rates of net migration. population aging, on the other hand, might lead to higher savings and thus – ceteris paribus – to a downward pressure on real interest rates. this reaction is sometimes presented as a direct and necessary consequence of the rise in life expectancy. it is important, however, to emphasize that the strength of this channel will depend on the reaction of retirement behavior, i. e. on people ’ s incentives, willingness and ability to work longer. while demographic developments can be forecast quite accurately for the next 20 to 30 years, the development of retirement age is much less certain, as it will depend on the design of public and private pension systems, on the economic environment and on the progress of medical science. this brings me to the second main driver of long - term economic growth : the development of productivity. a number of observers have argued that the technological frontier is no longer expanding at the previous speed, that the “ low - hanging fruits ” have already been picked and that the wider consequences of the computer / internet revolution are more modest than those of the introduction of equivalent general purpose technologies like the steam engine or electricity. opposed to this pessimistic view of the future of innovation there is, however, a second camp of thought that has a much rosier, almost enthusiastic view of the technological possibilities that lie ahead. the subtitle of a famous book captures this perspective in a compact form : “ how the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, driving productivity, and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy ”. 3 this camp of technological optimists refers to scientific breakthroughs that one might expect ( or rather : not even expect ) over the next decades, especially in the realm of life sciences. these discussions are thrilling and there are many aspects that deserve thorough and sometimes speculative thinking. the second conference day is almost exclusively dedicated to these long - term topics. ladies and gentlemen, long - term forces are not the only possible cause for the modest growth performance recorded over the past few years. the recent debate has provided many more potential explanations for the weak economic recovery, and these, too, will be discussed later today and tomorrow. of particular prominence is the secular stagnation hypothesis dating back to harvard economist alvin hansen. he viewed the weak recovery in the aftermath of the great

ewald nowotny : long - term perspectives for economic growth opening remarks by prof dr ewald nowotny, governor of the central bank of the republic of austria, at the 43rd economics conference of the central bank of the republic of austria, vienna, 15 june 2015. * * * ladies and gentlemen, i am very pleased to welcome you to the 43rd economics conference of the oesterreichische nationalbank here in vienna. this year we are going to discuss the “ long - term perspectives for economic growth ” – and i would like to invite all of you to take part in this important discussion. we have once again prepared a highly interesting program featuring distinguished speakers and discussants from different backgrounds in academia and policy - making. my particular welcome goes to state secretary sonja steßl, who will address this year ’ s conference as our first speaker. thank you very much for joining us today. at this point, let me also take the opportunity to thank the oenb staff in charge of organizing this event for their outstanding efforts and commitment. ladies and gentlemen, i would like to start my introductory remarks today with a quote that very well captures the recent economic policy debate : “ we are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. it is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress [ … ] is over ; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down. [ … ] ; that a decline in prosperity is more likely than an improvement in the decade which lies ahead of us. ” these lines are not taken from a recent editorial or contemporary blog post. they are the beginning of a famous essay by john maynard keynes on “ the economic possibilities for our grandchildren, ” written in 1930. it is quite telling that 85 years later, we – the grandand great - grandchildren of keynes ’ generation – seem to find ourselves in a situation similar to his. the ruptures of a great economic crisis have again prompted sometimes gloomy forecasts of our future growth prospects. at this year ’ s economics conference, we will discuss in more detail whether these pessimistic outlooks are justified – or whether “ this interpretation is widely mistaken, ” as keynes concluded almost a century ago. 1 ladies and gentlemen, economic growth is a spectacular phenomenon. while an annual real growth rate of 2 % might at first sight seem modest and inconsequential, it generates tremendous energy if it the entire quote is :