return over a period of 15 years will be negative would also increase somewhat, although not markedly. i have included this comment because these kinds of assessment are central to the choice of investment strategy for a fund such as the petroleum fund. long - term plan the petroleum fund is a very long - term savings plan. the notion of a fund arose in the early 1980s, and the fund was adopted in 1990 before the government had received any positive net cash flow from petroleum activities. up to 1995, government investments in petroleum activities were so large that all the revenues were used for investment and to cover budget deficits during the recession around 1990. now we have ten years of a rapidly expanding fund behind us. ahead of us, we still have at least 50 years, and perhaps more, where the petroleum fund or the pension fund will, i hope and believe, be an important part of the norwegian economy. every year, the calculations are based on the market assumptions that formed the basis of our most recent review of the investment strategy for the petroleum fund. 7 / 8 the storting will have to decide the scale of petroleum revenue spending over the central government budget. there is a long time ahead before the savings plan has been carried through. 8 / 8

in recent years, and we expect continued strong growth in the years ahead. the national budget for 2006 presents projections for the period to 2009. the projections are based on the assumption that the price of oil will fall from the current level to nok 260 per barrel. this is lower than long - term futures prices but is a high price estimate in relation to historical prices. productivity growth in service industries is compared here. there may be sources of error due to choice of method in the production of national accounts figures, but the main impression can also be supported by the use of other sources. comparing developments in productivity in manufacturing is of little relevance since the structure of this industry varies widely among the nordic countries. seniorpolitikk og ia - avtalens delmal om a øke pensjoneringsalderen. ( norwegian only ) report no. 04 / 2005. national insurance administration. 4 / 8 we know little about future oil prices. the chart shows actual developments since 1960 and the projections in the last long - term programmes and in the national budget for 2006. we see that considerable weight has systematically been given to the prevailing oil price when making projections. just as systematically, there have been surprises that have resulted in a different path for the actual oil price. the lesson is that today ’ s oil price should not be regarded as a forecast of future prices, not even if the level is priced into long - term futures. substantial uncertainty must be expected. the management of the petroleum fund will be part of the state pension fund. this essentially involves a name change. the capital will not be earmarked for pension payments. on the other hand, the intention has long been for the capital in the petroleum fund to be used as a means of easing the burden in connection with the large pensioner cohorts expected from about 2015. with the assumptions set out in the last national budget, only a share of the rise in pension payments ahead can be financed by an increase in returns on the fund. the bulk of the increase must be financed by higher ordinary tax revenues. a number of analysts have calculated that with high oil prices the petroleum fund will be sufficiently large to finance pension payments. norges bank has analysed the uncertainty surrounding such expectations. we have looked at the probability that the capital in the petroleum fund will be sufficient by calculating developments in market value and pension payments using a model with uncertainty. we have used statistics norway ’ s projections for pension payments. standard assumptions concerning uncertainty with respect