achieve overarching recommendations applying to all areas of policy - mix. i would like to underline that from the point of view of the escb there should not be any ambiguity. the implication of the ecb in this informal dialogue has as sole purpose to share information. any form of ex - ante coordination would undermine the ecb's credibility in fulfilling its mandate and would be considered to be in opposition to the terms of the treaty ; • let me come back to the accession countries now. in the monetary sphere, continuous efforts are necessary in order to bring down inflation. inflation has been brought down from 12. 4 % in the accession countries in the year 2000 to 8. 8 % in 2001. in the present year, inflation is expected to be around 6 - 7 %. this track record is quite encouraging and ought to be pursued. some challenges however remain, likely to generate pressure on prices : the liberalisation of administered prices in many accession countries, the so - called balassasamuelson effect, which on average has been considered to represent between 2 and 4 % of inflation for accession countries, as well as the sliding fiscal policy stance in some countries. all are upward risks to price stability. in addition, the weight of energy - related items in most accession countries'hicps is higher than in european countries. in accession countries they vary between 22 % and 31 %, while the average in the euro area is only 11 %. the rising oil prices hence add a further element to the balance of risks for inflation inside the accession countries. • the catching - up process will bring inflation rates above those prevailing in the euro area before they will converge slowly. let me stress in this respect that no additional criteria will be added for accession countries but that, as for the actual members, the entry in the euro area will be based on the strict fulfilment of the existing convergence criteria as they have been applied in the past, without new interpretations. the run - up to an enlarged europe also is an opportunity to stress what i would call two core principles for the functioning and the strategy of the eurosystem. 4. independence in europe, independence is a quite recent principle. today it is also acknowledged that it is an indisputable one. independence is one of the key items to be implemented in the framework of the acquis communautaire. but this issue does not only relay to accession countries. as you have seen in the recent convergence

on short - term assignments in norway. in spite of solid corporate profitability and an unemployment level that has earlier triggered markedly higher wage growth, real wage growth from 2005 to 2006 will probably be moderate. nevertheless, unemployment fell rapidly through the summer. the main agreements in the centralised wage settlements had then been concluded. the social partners may therefore have assumed that the labour market would be less tight than currently implied by employment and unemployment figures. some groups negotiate wages locally in the autumn. wage growth may be higher than average for these groups. systematic information about these negotiations is limited, however, before the first months of 2007. in the last rounds of interviews with our regional network, an increasing number of companies reported that wage growth in 2006 will be higher than budgeted early this year. the level of unemployment that is consistent with stable real wage growth is uncertain and probably varies over time. we have assumed that increased economic integration across countries, both in the form of an increase in inward labour migration and intensified competition in product markets, may have a dampening effect on wage demands for a given level of unemployment. in the period ahead, a tight labour market is expected to result in higher real wage growth. nevertheless, it is assumed that labour inflows will have a dampening impact on wage demands, so that real wage growth will be a little lower in the next few years than in previous periods of equally low unemployment. the upward pressure on price and wage inflation given the level of current resource utilisation, as reflected in the output gap, is estimated to be lower than in the previous expansion even though the unemployment rate is at approximately the same low level. this is due in part to high productivity growth in recent years. growth in disposable income has been high in recent years. lower interest expenses and relatively high real wage growth have resulted in an increase in household purchasing power. the rise in house prices may also have fuelled growth in private consumption. with high growth in employment and falling unemployment, consumption growth is expected to be high in the period to the end of the year and into next year. as the interest rate level gradually normalises, household interest expenses will increase. household interest - bearing debt is approximately nok 1300 billion. according to our interest rate forecast, which i will return to later, the interest rate in 2008 will be more than 2 percentage points higher than in 2006. such an interest rate increase will have a pre - tax effect on household income of roughly nok 25