samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
planned for the coming years, according to government decisions that have already been approved, exceed the expenses permitted as per the fiscal rule by nis 12 billion in 2013, nis 22 billion in 2014, and nis 25 billion in 2015. we must remember that this is the situation after the government took the very rare step of raising vat and direct taxes a short time before elections, and this is a very responsible step from the standpoint of the government. at the beginning of 2013, the government will operate based on the 1 / 12 rule due to the fact that the budget has not yet been approved. however, the law also takes into account expenditure on debt repayments, which were very high in 2012 and are expected to be lower in 2013. therefore, we do not expect marked restraint as a result of the 1 / 12 rule. revenues are projected to be below the expenses limitation. therefore, the government will need to close a gap of more than nis 12 billion in 2013. so what will the government do? the limitation on the budget is a law, which can be changed. i hope that the government does not change this law, since we are coming close to an expenditure level of 43. 5 percent of gdp this year, and we must maintain a safety margin in case of a security crisis. the government will therefore need to reduce the level of planned expenditure, and we obviously must remember that there will still be an increase of about 5 percent in expenses in 2013 over 2012, due to inflation adjustments. but the planned expenses are supposed to increase by 10 percent, and this is even before accounting for the ramifications of operation “ pillar of defense ” with the ministry of defense. i would not want to trade places with the person who will need to explain to some of the public that “ we promised, but we didn ’ t promise to carry it out ”. but that is the work of the politicians. the government will need to decide what to do, and it will be very difficult. if i had to choose, i would prefer that the government meet the deficit target as well as the expenditure rule. however, if it is necessary to change the expenditure rule and to increase it, which is not desirable, i prefer that this be done through an increase in taxes and a significant reduction in the deficit, preferably even to slightly below 3 percent. it is not recommended to delay these decisions. the tensions within the government will only increase as we move farther away from the

elections, and it is preferable to make these decisions right at the beginning of the government ’ s term. we must remember that there may also be security challenges, and it is the supreme responsibility of the government to protect its citizens. bis central bankers ’ speeches
actually in business for and as a result are no longer in business. banks, like other companies in a free market economy, have a responsibility to make profits for their shareholders. it is in the interests of society as a whole that they do so, otherwise we could end up with the banking sector in a mess. but any company maximises shareholder value subject to constraints. these may be imposed by laws and regulations, such as those relating to environmental protection, or by the expectations of society. this means that if banks wish to preserve their reputation and the confidence of their customers, on which ultimately the strength of their franchise depends, they should act in a way that is seen to be fair and reasonable. to do otherwise may in the long - term be inconsistent with the objective of creating shareholder value. what this means in practice is that in imposing new charges, banks need to be sensitive to the impact on their customers and particularly on the more vulnerable members of the community. it is important to offer customers options for how they can access banking services and at what cost, and to provide them with information about these options and the associated charges. i am pleased to say that the banks that have so far announced new charging policies have borne these considerations in mind. we intend to give this further underpinning through revisions to the code of banking practice that will lay particular stress on the need for transparency in the setting of charges. there have been calls from some quarters in hong kong that the hkma should regulate banks ’ fees and charges. this is not something that we want to get into. the only role for the hkma would be if it appeared that the banks were engaging in collusive, anti - competitive practices in their charging policies. there is no evidence of this as yet, and given the way in which banks compete in other business areas, the risk of collusion seems quite low. indeed, a number of banks have already said that they will not impose new charges, for the time being at least. nonetheless, this is something that we will keep an eye on. we are in fact already in the process of reviewing the question of whether the hkma should play a bigger role in consumer issues, and if so what powers and resources we would need for this purpose. it is too soon to say where this will lead, but i stress again that we have no desire to get involved in the regulation of fees and charges. deposit insurance let me now turn to the other major plank of our reform package

success to all who will be involved in translating the design into reality.
jerome h powell : fed listens – perspectives on the pandemic recovery introductory remarks by mr jerome h powell, chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at " fed listens : perspectives on the pandemic recovery, " sponsored by the board of governors of the federal reserve system, washington, d. c. ( via webcast ), 24 september 2021. * * * nearly three years after we started holding fed listens events around the country, the program has proved to be even more valuable than we could have imagined. its original purpose was to elicit broad feedback as part of our monetary policy framework review. however, the fed has long viewed community outreach as a vital part of our economic understanding, and these discussions have delivered such value that fed listens has evolved to join the other regular staples of our outreach work. these events enable us to hear directly from people on the ground, at the heart of the sectors and industries you represent, from communities across the country, to add tone, contour and greater depth to the nation ’ s economic portrait. these insights are particularly valuable as we move through this challenging and precedent shattering period. the speed and intensity of this downturn – and the rapidity of the recovery in many areas – are without modern precedent. i am very glad you could all join us today to offer your thoughts, and i want to thank you on behalf of the entire federal reserve system for both your presence today and for your continued feedback and participation. some of the issues you are confronting are shared across sectors, while others are unique to your fields. most of you are contending with changed workplaces, from safety protocols whose half - lives are unclear to fundamental shifts in how your industries operate, in everything from feeding people to how movies are released. business plans have been reworked, outlooks have been revised, and the future continues to be tinged with uncertainty. while uncertainty often results in immobility for businesses, it can also spell opportunity, and the creativity and adaptability on display over the past 18 months have been among the few bright spots. i have been amazed and inspired by the flexibility and ingenuity, particularly that of small businesses, in shifting to meet the demands of a new reality. all of us are very much looking forward to the discussion today. you provide a wealth of information by sharing your experiences and those of your colleagues, customers, and communities. that has always been crucial in how we conduct monetary policy but means even

more in extraordinary times such as these. i want to thank you again for providing that insight and look forward to the conversation. 1 / 1 bis central bankers'speeches
sureyya serdengecti : recent developments in the turkish economy speech by sureyya serdengecti, governor of the central bank of the republic of turkey, made at the 69th shareholders'ordinary general meeting of the central bank, ankara, 24 april 2001. * * * dear shareholders, distinguished guests and valuable press members ; th i would first like to welcome you to the 69 shareholders ’ ordinary general meeting of the central bank of the republic of turkey. as you know, the year 2000 differed widely from the previous years for the central bank of turkey and for the turkish economy as well. the disinflation program, which had been initiated in december 1999, was the most important element that shaped the economic developments in 2000. in the medium - term, the program had aimed to bring down inflation to single digits in three years, to reduce real interest rates to reasonable levels, to increase the growth potential of the economy, and to provide a more efficient resource allocation in the economy. the main pillars of the program were ; tight fiscal policy focusing on improving the primary surplus ; speeding up the structural reforms and privatization efforts ; an incomes policy geared to targeted inflation ; and a pre - announced exchange rate basket. the specifics of the program and extensive analyses of economic developments of last year have been elaborated in our 2000 annual report. in 2000, although the inflation targets that were envisaged in the program could not be reached, significant progress was made in the fight against inflation, which reached its lowest level ever in the last 14 years. in addition, the fiscal balance improved considerably, and the structural reforms were underway. interest rates came substantially down in 2000 as a result of the decreased exchange rate risk and the improved foresight of public. declining interest rates reduced the cost of the treasury ’ s domestic borrowing. rising domestic debt stock was put under control. after the recession in the economy in 1999, falling interest rates boosted the deferred consumer demand, particularly for durable goods. moreover, increased demand for credit, driven by the banks ’ favorable consumer loans, put the economy back on the growth track. besides the decreasing tendency in interest rates, the stable exchange rates and the private sector ’ s renewal investments, directed to productivity increase, also contributed to the growth in the economy. as a result, the gnp grew by 6. 1 percent in 2000. however, the economic expectations became confused in the second half of 2000. starting from may 2000, the gap between the optimi

crisis recipe described above. of course we have high inflation, a high nominal budget deficit, and high short - term domestic debt, but on the other hand turkey ’ s exchange rate policy, current account situation, the nature of its short - term external debt, and other fundamentals do not indicate an alarming situation. the east asian crisis should have greatly improved the ability of economists to predict an episode. i would be glad to see some evidence of this improvement.
nils bernstein : proposals for mortgage credit regulation speech by mr nils bernstein, governor of the national bank of denmark, at the annual meeting of the danish mortgage banks ’ federation, copenhagen, 30 march 2011. * * * growth in the global economy has accelerated over the last year and has become more robust. but recent events have, once again, shown how unpredictable the world is. the turmoil in the middle east – with an armed conflict in libya – and the natural disaster in japan with its alarming consequences will not halt the global economic upswing, but they will have an impact. * * * combined with a number of other factors, the upswing has contributed to a global price hike. inflation is driven by rising food and commodity prices. commodity prices are now almost back at the high level seen before the financial crisis. it looks as if the crisis just led to a short interruption of an upward underlying trend in commodity prices. with higher inflation, the level of interest rates is likely to normalise sooner than the markets have previously expected. the anchoring of inflation expectations is important if the higher prices are not to spill over to wages and trigger a price - wage spiral. the european central bank has stressed its commitment to keeping inflation at bay, and there is reason to believe that an undesirable price - wage spiral can be avoided, as long as there is plenty of spare capacity and labour. the financial crisis and not least the european sovereign debt crisis have clearly shown that there is a need for stronger economic cooperation in the eu. and so far the eu has been ready to respond to this need. the first important step was taken in the autumn, when the commission and the van rompuy task force presented their proposals for strengthening the stability and growth pact and other aspects of economic cooperation. the member states have now agreed on a series of amendments to strengthen fiscal discipline and – as a new element – introduce a surveillance mechanism to prevent fundamental macroeconomic imbalances in eu member states, including those outside the euro area. the second important step was taken on 11 march, when the heads of state or government of the euro area member states agreed on the euro pact. the pact is first and foremost a strong political signal of shared determination to introduce initiatives to strengthen competitiveness, employment, fiscal discipline and financial stability. as a non - euro area member state, denmark did not have to join the pact. at danmarks nationalbank we are pleased to note that there was broad support for doing so in

us a system of government, and a culture of enterprise, that has propelled the united states to the greatest prosperity the world has ever experienced. the contributions of our national leaders, people like president ford, have sustained and promoted that culture in the most difficult of circumstances and have given us the tools to improve upon this inheritance in ways that we have yet to imagine.
and private consumption, public and private investment and export and import dynamics. from a central banking perspective, the uncertainties associated with structural change reinforce the value of a stability - oriented approach to the conduct of monetary policy. in particular, a clear anchor for monetary policy allows households, firms and governments to concentrate on the many challenges associated with digitalisation and the carbon transition, secure in the knowledge that monetary policy will be guided by a clear and predictable framework that, in the case of the ecb, is oriented towards stabilising inflation at two percent over the medium term. although the precise design and calibration of our policy instruments will surely be influenced by these structural forces in the coming years, the policy goal will remain the same : protecting price stability by focusing on the symmetric two percent inflation target. in turn, our recent comprehensive strategy review has given us very strong foundations for ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy will take into account the economic, monetary and financial implications of digitalisation and the carbon transition. 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

convergence • globalization, market integration, global supply chain • deglobalization, market fragmentation, economic security • large labor supply • declining and aging population • carbonized • decarbonization ( greenflation ) • peace dividend • wartime economy chart 7 government spending and inflation rates : no clear relationship united kingdom united states % y / y % chg. 30 % y / y % chg. 30 government spending to gdp ratio ( left scale ) cpi ( all items, right scale ) - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 % - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 germany % japan y / y % chg. 30 - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 note : figures for germany prior to 1991 are those for west germany. sources : imf ; oecd. y / y % chg. - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 chart 8 government debt outstanding and inflation rates : no clear relationship % united states y / y % chg. 30 government debt outstanding to gdp ratio ( left scale ) 25 cpi ( all items, right scale ) united kingdom % y / y % chg. 30 - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 germany % y / y % chg. 30 y / y % chg. - 5 cy50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 japan % - 5 cy 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 note : figures for germany prior to 1991 are those for west germany. sources : imf ; oecd. chart 9 world trade : stagnant goods, growing services 1, 300 cy 1990 = 100 1, 200 1, 100 goods 1, 000 other commercial services cy 90 note : figures are the sum of exports and imports on a u. s. dollar basis. those for other commercial services exclude travel and transport. sources : wto ; baldwin, r., " globotics and macroeconomics : globalisation and automation of the service sector, " cepr press discussion paper, no. 17530 ( 2022 ). chart 10 determinants of the natural rate of
2022, the reduction in water availability and the drop in crop yields could reduce gdp by up to 6. 5 percent and could result in out - migration to urban areas of up to 1. 9 million moroccans by 2050. fortunately, the public authorities are well aware of this situation. i won't go into an exhaustive inventory of what has been achieved ; i'll just point out that the country was among the first to ratify international climate conventions, notably the united nations framework convention on climate change 1995, the kyoto protocol in 2002 and the paris agreement in 2016. more recently, the kingdom has launched several major sectoral programs and strategies, including the " 2020 - 2030 national climate plan " ; the " national low carbon strategy 2050 " ; the " 2020 - 2050 national water plan ". aspirations in the energy sector are also high and the target set for 2030 is to achieve 52 per cent of the energy mix from renewable sources. finally, it is worth recalling that in november 2021, morocco submitted an updated nationally determined contribution raising ambition to 45. 5 percent reduction of its greenhouse gases emissions by 2030. regarding fiscal policy, the framework law on taxation adopted in 2021 sets forth, as one of its objectives, promoting environmental protection, mainly through the introduction of a carbon tax. we believe that its successful implementation could have a significant impact. that said, it should be noted that combating climate change and mitigating its impacts require the mobilization of massive funding in a global context marked by extremely high public and private debt rates and shrinking fiscal buffers. in the case of morocco, the world bank estimates the investment needed for the period 2022 - 2050 at around $ 78 billion. ladies and gentlemen, one of the questions that arises in this context is related to the role of central banks. what is evident is that they will have to consider the impact of climate change in carrying - out their missions. indeed, this change affects growth, employment and inflation, the main variables on which monetary policy decisions are based. besides, climate - related risks are bound to have an impact on the banking and insurance industries, and on financial stability in general. however, the issue of central banks'contribution to the fight against climate change remains open to debate. should they? do they have the necessary capacity and resources? are their toolkits adapted to the expansion of their mandates? what would be the consequences on their conventional missions? on their independence? debate and discussions

thank you very much. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches
engagement ; bis central bankers ’ speeches • fifth, while it is a real strength of the new system that conduct and prudential supervision have their own institutions that can provide the focus that is essential, where we should work together we do, as the example of mortgage underwriting standards illustrates ; • sixth, our approach is to use judgment to set the right incentives for the firms that we regulate to take the actions themselves rather than default to the regulators to do the work. i welcome the action taken by firms on mortgage underwriting standards as an example of that process, and more broadly i welcome the recommendations of the parliamentary commission on banking standards not least because they put the whole issue of incentivisation of the right behaviour at the front of their recommendations ; • and last, returning to my earlier theme, we want to create and preserve financial stability as a platform to enable choices to be made in other areas of public policy free of concerns that our objective might be put in jeopardy by doing so. a prime example of this is to enable conditions to exist which can enable people to buy homes. i hope this gives a good sense of what we are about. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

wrong ” sign and their coefficient is estimated in gali ’ s model, unemployment is positive under flexible prices and wages on account of a steady state wage mark - up, which captures inefficiencies in wage setting. unemployment can move away from this rate in the short run, during which period nominal wages and prices are rigid, in response to shocks to the economy. bis central bankers ’ speeches imprecisely. dropping these, in column ( 7 ), adds to the models adjusted explanatory power, which is taken as the “ preferred ” model. 26 table a1 : simple wage phillips curves using private sector regular pay, qoq annl. lagged wage - 0. 0518 - 0. 134 - 0. 211 * - 0. 211 * - 0. 122 - 0. 232 * growth ( - 0. 40 ) ( - 1. 05 ) ( - 1. 69 ) ( - 1. 67 ) ( - 0. 95 ) ( - 1. 87 ) 1. 254 * * * 1. 060 * * * 1. 062 * * * 0. 795 * * * 1. 135 * * * ( - 5. 48 ) ( - 5. 31 ) ( - 5. 22 ) ( - 4. 18 ) ( - 5. 79 ) lagged cpi 0. 458 * * 0. 729 * * * 0. 737 * * 0. 791 * * * 0. 719 * * * inflation - 2. 17 - 3. 83 - 2. 67 - 3. 28 - 4. 54 recruitment 0. 421 * * * 0. 422 * * * 0. 259 * * 0. 281 0. 275 difficulties - 2. 97 - 2. 86 - 2. 12 - 1. 54 - 1. 53 - 0. 0172 0. 647 * * * - 0. 15 ( - 0. 05 ) - 2. 8 ( - 0. 45 ) unemployment 0. 921 * * * ( - 5. 08 ) infl. expectations 1. 116 * * * productivity 0. 257 * growth - 1. 96 - 2 n ( adjusted ) 0. 374 0. 415 0. 489 0. 479 0. 426 0. 508 0. 516 notes : equation also includes a constant ( not shown ). t statistics in parentheses. *, * * and * * * represent statistical significance at the 10, 5