investment for the future. finally, keep on working towards appropriate balances between risk and reward, making this sustainable over the cycle. i believe it is revealing that the title of the conference refers to the management of nonfinancial risk as ‘ the next big challenge ’. as i have noted today, these risks have been in the spotlight of banks and supervisors at least since basel ii, so an observer may question whether they can still be characterised as the ‘ next big challenge ’. i actually agree with the statement made in the title. the pervasive and ever - changing nature of non - financial risk turns it into a permanent challenge for banks and supervisors. the most recent and obvious example would be the emergence of environmental risk as a source of concern for all of us. indeed, there is still a lot of catching up to do, so i look forward to today ’ s discussions. i wish you a very successful conference. thank you very much. 6 / 6

2009 give us a positive edge. the external impulse that our economy will be receiving in the coming quarters will be smaller than we thought just a few months back. however, we must not forget that still our relative position in the world is favorable. we have managed to diversify the destinations of our exports and china is now our main client. the copper price and the terms of trade, although not as good as some months ago, are still high from a historical perspective. our country risk is low and, although our external financing cost has risen in recent weeks, it is still lower than it was in previous years ago. also, as discussed in depth in our financial stability report, our financial system is well prepared to deal with more adverse conditions abroad without becoming an additional source of unrest. but as i said before, there are important risks. we are attentive to the evolution of the external scenario and its effects on our economy. we have the tools necessary to deal with adverse situations, and, most importantly, we have the firm determination to act to mitigate the impact of external environment on the chilean economy. now let me describe in detail the current macroeconomic scenario, our projections, the risks that remain and where our economy – particularly its financial system – stands, to address them. macroeconomic scenario as i just said, economic and financial developments of the past few months have been dominated by events from abroad. the crisis of the eurozone has widened and deepened as distrust builds up with respect to the region ’ s fiscal, banking and economic situation. all this has reflected in high volatility in global financial markets, increases in risk premiums and liquidity, falling prices of financial assets and commodities, an appreciation of the dollar and a downward revision of global growth projections ( figure 1 ). the transmission of the global crisis to the emerging world has proceeded through the financial channel – via higher debt premiums and net capital outflows –, falling commodity prices – especially for metals and agricultural products –, and a reduction in manufacturing exports. for the moment, the signs of output deceleration in the emerging world are moderate and consistent with september ’ s forecasts. manufacturing production is down in some economies, and distrust has increased. worth noting is the slowdown in brazil and, to a lesser extent, in china ( figure 2 ). considering forecasts of slower global growth and its effects on the inflationary outlook, a number of central banks at both developed and emerging economies have begun to