for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0 to 1 / 4 percent, and it expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels that are consistent with the committee ’ s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. we expect that the new framework and guidance will support our efforts in pursuit of a strong economic recovery. thank you. i look forward to our discussion. 1 see update on the economic well - being of u. s. households : july 2020 results, or shed, issued in september 2020 and available on the board ’ s website at www. federalreserve. gov / publications / files / 2019 - report - economicwell - being - us - households - update - 202009. pdf. return to text 2 using data from adp, the board staff estimate that at the end of april, 41 percent of the workers in the bottom quartile ( based on their previous wage ) had lost their jobs, compared with only 13 percent for the other three quartiles. see the board ’ s june 2020 monetary policy report, available at www. federalreserve. gov / monetarypolicy / files / 20200612 _ mprfullreport. pdf, for more details. 4 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches

percent, clearly a significant and rapid rebound. a broader measure that better captures current labor market conditions — by adjusting for mistaken characterizations of job status, and for the decline in labor force participation since february — is running around 11 percent. the burdens of the downturn have not been evenly shared. the initial job losses fell most heavily on lower - wage workers in service industries facing the public — job categories in which minorities and women are overrepresented. in august, employment of those in the bottom quartile of the wage distribution was still 21 percent below its february level, while it was only 4 percent lower for other workers. 2 combined with the disproportionate effects of covid on communities of color, and the overwhelming burden of childcare during quarantine and distance learning, which has fallen mostly on women, the pandemic is further widening divides in wealth and economic mobility. the road ahead i will now turn to the outlook. the recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected. the most recent projections by fomc ( federal open market committee ) participants at our september meeting show the recovery continuing at a solid pace. the median participant saw unemployment declining to 4 percent and inflation reaching 2 percent by the end of 2023. of course, the economy may perform better or worse than expected. the outlook remains highly uncertain, in part because it depends on controlling the spread and effects of the virus. there is a risk that the rapid initial gains from reopening may transition to a longer than expected slog back to full recovery as some segments struggle with the pandemic ’ s continued fallout. the pace of economic improvement has moderated since the outsize gains of may and june, as is evident in employment, income, and spending data. the increase in permanent job loss, as well as recent layoffs, are also notable. we should continue do what we can to manage downside risks to the outlook. one such risk is that covid - 19 cases might again rise to levels that more significantly limit economic activity, not to mention the tragic effects on lives and well - being. managing this risk as the expansion continues will require following medical experts ’ guidance, including using masks and socialdistancing measures. a second risk is that a prolonged slowing in the pace of improvement over time could trigger typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on weakness. a long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing dispar