substantially, to an annual growth rate of 1. 1 %. the effect of the adverse factors weighing on growth is expected to unwind over time. growth is expected to come in at 1. 5 % in 2021, unchanged from previous projections. supportive financing conditions, further employment gains and rising wage growth, and the ongoing – albeit slower – expansion in global activity, will continue to underpin the euro area expansion. nevertheless, the weaker growth momentum will leave its mark on domestic price pressures, slowing the adjustment of inflation towards our aim. underlying inflation continues to be muted and our staff projections see a somewhat slower path for headline inflation, which is now foreseen to reach 1. 6 % at the end of 2021. significant monetary policy accommodation therefore remains essential. at our march meeting, we decided to adjust the date - based leg of our forward guidance. by confirming that rates would remain at their current levels at least through the end of 2019, we extended the period of very low interest rates further by minimising expectations of a rate hike before the end of this year. of course, the second, state - based leg of our forward guidance continues to provide additional accommodation. furthermore, we observed that while bank lending conditions remain very favourable, the weaker outlook could affect the terms and conditions under which banks extend credit to businesses and households. it was therefore essential to preserve bank lending conditions by making sure that the refinancing needs of banks stemming from maturing bank bonds and outstanding targeted longer - term refinancing operations ( tltros ) would not jeopardise the transmission of monetary policy. 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches we therefore launched tltro - iii, a new series of quarterly refinancing operations, starting in september 2019 and ending in march 2021, each with a maturity of two years. banks will be entitled to borrow up to 30 % of the stock of eligible loans at a rate indexed to the interest rate on the main refinancing operations over the life of each operation. like the current tltro programme, tltro - iii will feature built - in incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable for the euro area economy. overall, the measures taken in march signal our determination to provide the accommodation needed to underpin the economic expansion and ensure that inflation remains on a sustained path towards our inflation aim. key issues on the european financial agenda over the course of 2018, the financial stability environment became more challenging, which was reflected in systemic stress

lucas papademos : interview with il sole 24 ore english translation of an interview with lucas papademos, vice president of the european central bank, conducted by beda romano ( il sole 24 ore ), frankfurt, 5 august 2004. the interview was published in il sole 24 ore, in the edition dated 8 august 2004 and the publication of the translation was authorised by il sole 24 ore. * * * the oil price has reached its peak for the last 20 years ( in nominal terms at least ). the price since the beginning of the year averages out at $ 37 / barrel. some governments are already very concerned, talking in terms of an oil crisis, and many are recalling the recession in the 1970s. what is your assessment? the assessment of the magnitude of the problem and of the potential impact of the increase in oil prices is somewhat complex. it must be put in perspective. oil prices have been rising since the end of 1998. if we compare the recent increase in the price of oil with two similar episodes, we will note that, in percentage terms, the increase since 1998 is similar to the one recorded between december 1973 and january 1974 and exceeds the rise between the end of 1978 and the end of 1979. the same conclusion is reached regardless of whether oil prices are measured in dollars or in euro. so there are good grounds for fears of a repetition of the crisis that struck in the early 1970s? there are major differences from that period. first of all, the increase in oil prices in the early 1970s occurred over a limited, two - month period, whereas the current upward trend in the price of oil has lasted 67 months : it has already exerted much of its impact on inflation and growth. i would also add that, in real terms, the oil price is at a relatively low level and far lower today than it was in the late 1970s. moreover the reliance of many economies on oil has declined. in other words, the oil price trend has to be viewed in perspective. all the same, the increase over the last few months cannot fail to make an impact on the european economy, in terms of both a rise in inflation and a decline in growth. it has been estimated that a 10 % increase in the oil price pushes inflation up by about 0. 1 percentage point per annum in the first year and by roughly the same amount in each of the two subsequent years. the impact in the first year is mainly direct, whereas the repercussions are indirect in the following