tools, which will become available soon. through an exhaustive analysis of approximately 130 academic papers published since 2008, we have gained valuable insights into the effects of various unconventional measures on key economic dimensions such as price stability and financial stability ( stelzer, spisso and zorner, 2024 ). our findings indicate strong evidence that many of these measures, including quantitative easing policies, have successfully achieved their intended goal of boosting inflation and growth. however, the picture becomes less clear when examining the effects of quantitative easing on financial stability. while some studies suggest positive effects, others raise concerns about potential risks and unintended consequences. it is very important that 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches we take these findings seriously as we move forward. learning from both successes and potential errors of the past will be instrumental in shaping our future policy decisions. as a last point here, i would like to turn our attention to the concept of the neutral or equilibrium real interest rate, commonly known as r - star as a guidepost for monetary policy. in recent years, there has been growing interest in understanding the dynamics of r - star, which is the equilibrium rate that neither stimulates nor contracts the economy. estimates indicate a declining trend of r - star, which might even reach or fall below zero in some cases, although more recent estimates suggest a slight increase. while some may view r - star as a " blurry guidepost for monetary policy, " as stated by bis research ( benigno et al., 2024 ), i believe there is intellectual value in this ongoing debate. if we were able to engineer a re - rise in r - star, we could potentially revert to a less distortionary conventional monetary toolbox while simultaneously enhancing welfare. so, the question arises : how can we increase r - star, and what structural policy interventions are necessary? from my perspective, there are three main avenues for this. first, an increase in total factor productivity, facilitated by initiatives such as digitalization, artificial intelligence, and policies aimed at mitigating climate change – perhaps best in a disruptive way in the vein of schumpeter – may increase r - star. second, it could be beneficial to enhance the labor market participation rate, ensuring that a larger portion of the population is actively engaged in the workforce. and finally, facilitating capital flows from the global north to the global south could help by fostering economic development and investment opportunities in emerging economies. my paper on

our deposit facility. this differential has led many central banks in developed countries to report losses, some of them significant. 1 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches though these losses may not immediately harm the functionality of central banks, they do raise some questions. scenarios may emerge where central bank independence may come under threat due to financial strains. the crucial question whether central bank finances are relevant for fulfilling our mandate will be rigorously debated in tomorrow's policy session. we are at a pivotal moment that demands careful consideration and collective engagement. second, while we will listen to some new ideas during this conference, also concepts that were treated somewhat neglectfully during the past episode of very low interest rates, are welcome. as an example, i refer to the link between money growth and inflation, which was found to be virtually non - existent in the very low inflation period. but recent research by the bis ( borio et al., 2023 ) finds that in high - inflation regimes, it is indeed helpful to incorporate money growth in inflation forecasts as it improves them substantially. moreover, our own research suggests that money growth has leading indicator properties and can therefore be helpful for identifying inflation regime changes ( ringwald and zorner, 2023 ). i think this is an excellent example how we would have delivered better forecasts in the post - pandemic inflation surge by simply acknowledging the importance of certain factors in different economic regimes. overall, this highlights the regime dependency we face in the conduct of monetary policy. we should therefore be open to concepts that are probably of less importance today but might be helpful after a regime change in the near future. the central bank of the future : coping with an ever - changing environment as we delve deeper into our discussions, i would like to highlight two key topics that warrant our attention : unconventional monetary policies and the concept of r - star. the response of central banks to the effective lower bound through the adoption of unconventional monetary policies marked a paradigm shift in policymaking. these measures expanded our toolkit, enabling us to navigate through challenging economic landscapes with greater flexibility and potency. however, as time has passed and more data have become available, it is imperative that we assess whether these measures have indeed achieved their intended objectives. moreover, dedicated research has delved into the potential side effects of these policies, providing valuable insights into their efficacy and impact. to shed light on these crucial questions, my team has undertaken a rigorous systematic literature review of the empirical literature surrounding unconventional