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christopher j waller : the economic outlook with a look at the housing market speech by mr christopher j waller, member of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at the mark c. berger workshop series, university of kentucky, lexington, kentucky, 6 october 2022. * * * thank you, jim, and thank you to the university of kentucky for the opportunity to speak to you today. it is nice to be back in the bluegrass state and see old friends and colleagues. i taught at uk from 1998 to 2003 and one of my colleagues at that time was mark berger, who passed away at far too young an age. mark was a good friend, and i am honored to speak in this seminar series that is named after him. my subject is the outlook for the u. s. economy and inflation, and the federal reserve's efforts to get inflation under control. 1 i will start with the outlook for the economy, focusing on inflation, and then turn to a discussion of the housing market, where strong demand has outrun limited supply, causing substantial increases in prices for shelter, which is a large component of inflation. because the housing market is sensitive to changes in interest rates and thus to monetary policy, i'll conclude by discussing how housing is being affected by the federal open market committee's ( fomc ) efforts to achieve our dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. recent data on economic activity suggest that after a slight contraction in gross domestic product in the first half of this year, the economy is posed for modest but below - trend growth in the latter half. meanwhile, the labor market remains strong and very tight. employers added 315, 000 jobs in august, well above the rate needed to keep up with population growth. while the unemployment rate rose, that was largely due to nearly 800, 000 people who joined the civilian labor force, many of them drawn in by ample job openings and fast wage growth. at 3. 7 percent, the unemployment rate was below the median projection for its long run rate among fomc participants. furthermore, initial unemployment claims are very low and stable. we will get another jobs report tomorrow. expectations are for job gains of around 260, 000, which would be lower than recent months but very healthy relative to past experience. a jobs number in this range along with the job openings rate reported on tuesday would show that the labor market is slowing a bit but is still quite tight. as a result, i don't expect