stricter quarantine restrictions in ukraine and globally remains the main risk to macrofinancial stability 1 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches indeed, vaccination campaigns are already proving to be effective in some countries. however, they are being rolled out rather slowly, as a result of which the risk of tighter quarantine measures this year remains significant. in particular, some regions of ukraine have seen a significant rise in morbidity in recent months. therefore, the pandemic still poses the threat of a decline in business activity and a cooling of consumer and investment demand. this, in turn, could rein in inflation. conversely, the rapid recovery of business activity, rebounding commodity markets, the lagged effect of large - scale expansionary measures, and potential pent - up demand are generating risks of higher inflation globally. under such conditions, among other things, inflationary pressures from ukraine ’ s main trading partners could increase further. there are other significant risks. they include : volatile global capital markets a more dramatic deterioration in the terms of trade an escalation of the military conflict in eastern ukraine or on the country ’ s borders. given the above balance of risks and the significant rise in underlying inflationary pressures seen in recent months, the nbu board decided to raise the key policy rate, to 6, 5 %. what will the nbu ’ s monetary policy stance be in future? looking ahead, the nbu stands ready to raise its key policy rate more resolutely in order to curb underlying inflationary pressures, stabilize expectations, and bring inflation back to its target. the nbu remains committed to its duty to meet the inflation target. therefore, nbu monetary policy will continue to be aimed at preventing a spike in inflation. thank you for your attention! 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

andriy pyshnyy : national bank of ukraine press briefing - monetary policy decisions speech by mr andriy pyshnyy, governor of the national bank of ukraine, at a press briefing on monetary policy decisions, kyiv, 19 september 2024. * * * dear colleagues, the board of the national bank of ukraine has decided to keep its key policy rate at 13 %. this decision will help gradually bring inflation back to the target of 5 % in the coming years and support the sustainability of the fx market. inflation has expectedly accelerated in recent months in august, consumer inflation rose to 7. 5 % in annual terms, which was close to the forecast the nbu made in july. the underlying inflationary pressure, measured by core inflation, also increased to 6. 5 %. the growth in consumer prices was driven by the impact of lower harvests, businesses'larger expenses, and the effects of the weakening of the hryvnia in the previous months. however, inflation expectations remained rather sustainable. the pressure on prices will persist in the near future, but inflation will slow next year inflation will rise moderately in the coming months due to an increase in aggregate demand against the backdrop of budgetary spending, businesses'larger expenses on wages and electricity, and higher excise taxes. however, the nbu's prudent monetary policy and lower external price pressures will contribute to a gradual decline in inflation and its return to the target of 5 % in the coming years. to meet the target, the nbu will, in particular, maintain a manageable situation on the fx market. international reserves are being kept on a level sufficient for ensuring the sustainability of the fx market in august, ukraine received a large amount of international financial assistance. at the same time, the nbu's interventions to sell foreign currency declined substantially on the back of a decrease in net demand from businesses and households. as a result, ukraine's international reserves exceeded usd 42 billion as of the start of september. the staff level agreement on the fifth review of the imf program reached in september was another positive signal that volumes of international assistance will continue to be sufficient and macrofinancial resilience will be maintained. 1 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches considering the above and the sufficient set of available instruments, the nbu will remain fully capable of supporting the sustainability of the fx market, prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations, and ensure that the exchange rate moves both ways.