samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
federal open market committee. 3 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches 2 for an example of recent research that looks at twitter posts during fomc days, see schmanski and others ( 2023 ). 3 dessaint, foucault, and fresard ( 2023 ) find that alternative data mainly helps forecast short - term outcomes. 4 for example, soderstrom ( 2002 ) shows that when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it is better to implement monetary policy that is aggressive than gradual. 4 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches

philip n jefferson : research and statistics centennial anniversary past, present and future speech by mr philip n jefferson, vice chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system, at " a look at the past, present, and future, " a conference celebrating the centennial of the division of research and statistics, board of governors of the federal reserve system, washington dc, 8 november 2023. * * * thank you, stacey, and thank you to the organizers for a thought - provoking conference. 1 provoking thought and discussion are very fitting ways to mark the centenary of the division of research and statistics ( r & s ). in keeping with the conference theme, i have organized my remarks around the past, present, and future of r & s. my reflection on the past, while idiosyncratic, is also, i believe, indicative of a through line that characterizes the division historically. for me, that past begins in 1983, when i came to the board as a newly minted college graduate to be a research assistant ( ra ) in the government finance section, now known as fiscal analysis. one of our primary tasks was to keep track of the volatile, and somewhat unpredictable, fluctuations in tax receipts. the daily numbers were transmitted not by computer, but by telephone. other data retrieval required ras to go to the treasury directly in the luxurious conveyance of a d. c. taxicab, reimbursed by the board - a little perk that, as it happened, never came my way. in our section, though, it was a lot of time on the phone, and the two economists i worked with, al teplin and wolf ramm, would take down the numbers and pass them to me. obviously, many things have changed in r & s over the past 40 years. but one thing that hasn't changed much is the role of ras in analyzing data and participating in other important functions performed by the division. back then, armed with those tax receipt numbers, i would be expected to put together a projection. my bosses had their own projections, of course, and they subjected my work to very careful review. but i was given that assignment because there was a widespread view then that ras were here to learn and to contribute meaningfully to research and policy work, and i felt a considerable responsibility to do the very best i could with the important work i had been given. much has changed at r & s, but those values remain.
chinese proverb that says “ a single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study ”. bis central bankers ’ speeches it has been a long day, in particular for those who departed early this morning or are still suffering from jet lag. therefore, i am not going to hold you up anymore. bon appetit! bis central bankers ’ speeches

. therefore, in this particular case, with the conflicts of interests of individual banks and the reluctance of the banking community to make a decision on the actual start of implementation, the mnb decided to use its regulatory power. the mnb did so because timely implementation of the project was in the interest of society as a whole and the better achievement of the public good. public good was served in several ways ; first, by eliminating the float on the banks ’ side ; second, by facilitating more finely tuned liquidity management by customers ; and third, by generally improving the quality of services provided to customers. another of our achievements is the publication of the hungarian national cost study entitled “ nothing is free ”, which has helped to foster a public dialogue about the role of cash in our society. our staff found that cash is heavily used in hungarian retail payments : 85 % of the number of retail payment transactions is connected to the use of cash. according to the best estimates, every year 0. 4 % of gdp ( in the hungarian context this currently corresponds to 370 million euros ) could be saved in hungary if the national payment pattern changed in such a way that the use of cash and paper - based payment instruments declined, and the use of electronic payments increased. bis central bankers ’ speeches our analysis revealed that the main bottleneck hindering much wider usage of cashless payments instruments is mostly on the acquirers ’ side. consequently, we proposed public policy measures mostly with the aim of better attraction of merchants. some of our ideas have been incorporated in the current economic policy programme of the hungarian government, but implementation is still underway. one of the key contemplated measures is the extension of the network of pos terminals, which is underdeveloped in comparison to other european countries. in addition to possibly subsidised set - up of pos terminals, we are also thinking about regulating the level of interchange fees. despite some declines, interchange fees remain too high in hungary. therefore, our intention is to somehow reduce the fee level, either by following the us and australian examples or by reacting to recent european developments. moreover, we also advocate the gradual introduction of mandatory acceptance of card payments at each merchant outlet. our analysis made it clear that cash is heavily used not only in consumer - to - merchant relationship, but also in business - to - business ( b2b ) payments and in payments of public administration. in case of b2b payments, one step forward is the introduction of a ceiling on the
wish you all the best and every success in the tasks that lie ahead of you. thank you very much for your attention. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

##mic. how do a single monetary policy and different national fiscal and economic policies fit together? to what degree does fiscal policy in the euro area countries need to be harmonised? what can be done to strengthen the capital markets union? and how can the banking union be completed? these questions and talking points affect us directly as eurosystem central banks, and they have a bearing on our work. 1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches to make it easier to reach out to national authorities and financial institutions in the major euro area countries, the bundesbank now sends staff members to the german embassies in madrid, rome and paris. it is an arrangement that complements the close working relationships we already enjoy with the central banks of these countries. we have found that an intensive exchange of views and ideas can bring differing viewpoints to light early on, besides deepening mutual understanding and trust. for the bundesbank, this is a way of helping to promote collective solutions and reinforcing cooperation within the euro area. digital media have helped us stay in touch during the covid - 19 pandemic. but no matter how well we can communicate by email, telephone and video conferencing nowadays, meeting in person is still a crucial factor in any trusting working relationship. fabian huttner will now play his part in fostering relationships as the bundesbank ’ s representative in madrid. he already has a wealth of knowledge on the various tasks of the bundesbank thanks to his period of training as a civil servant. and his previous position in the digital office saw him work intensively on topics that will shape the future at the bundesbank. i ’ m certain all this experience will stand him in good stead for his new duties. 2 digitalisation in payment transactions ambassador dold, ladies and gentlemen, nowadays, there ’ s no getting around the topic of digitalisation as one that will shape our future. the pandemic, especially, saw people increasingly turn to digital platforms to do their shopping and for work and study. businesses and authorities had no option but to roll out new processes within the tightest of time frames. it showed just how important it is for us to have a reliable digital infrastructure. digitalisation was also the driver of all manner of developments in the financial world during the pandemic. contactless payments by card or smartphone saw major growth, and a booming ecommerce sector increased the uptake of cashless payments. listening to payment service providers
japan, along with the corporate service price index ( cspi ) and the input - output price indexes of manufacturing industry by sector ( iopi ). each has different coverage and purposes. the wpi provides a measure of average changes in the prices of goods in inter - enterprise transactions. it functions as ( 1 ) an economic indicator ; ( 2 ) a barometer of the purchasing power of the currency ; and ( 3 ) a deflator. a base - year revision of the wpi from the 1990 base to 1995 has been conducted to incorporate changes in japan ’ s economic and trade structures. 1 while the basic framework of the index system remains unchanged by the revision, the selected commodities ( i. e., the smallest unit of commodities for which indexes, calculated based on sample prices, are published ) have been revised and expanded in order to further increase the precision of the index. this paper outlines the details involved in the revision of the wpi to the 1995 base, figures on the new base having been released in december 1997. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 a base - year revision of the wpi, involving the updating of the base year for both indexes and weight calculation, is conducted every five years based on a recommendation made by the statistics council in march 1981. in the revision to the 1995 base, indexes were recalculated from the 1990 average = 100 base to the 1995 average = 100 base, and the weights used in the calculation of indexes were updated based on 1995 data from such sources as the census of manufactures ” of the ministry of international trade and industry and the trade statistics of the ministry of finance. the framework of the index system is also reviewed as necessary at the time of the base - year revision.

hard to assess firms'investment activities and the effects of monetary policy without considering the impact of these assets. therefore, i believe that it is necessary to adequately address these changes in the economic structure. the actual economy that central banks face is very complex and changing dynamically. it is of course very important to learn economic theories in textbooks and analyze past experiences. however, when authorities and economic entities make decisions, it is my view that they should pay due attention to various factors, such as these structural changes that may not necessarily be evident from economic models, and continue to examine what needs to be done at the time.
of the inmates, the director of the asylum, begriffenfeldt, answers : “ when the world ’ s in a whirl, then we must whirl with it ”. 13 we do not share this attitude. we must not whirl helplessly along with the world. we should take advantage of the opportunities globalisation offers, but also contribute to those changes ourselves. thank you for your attention. henrik ibsen : peer gynt. translated by peter watts. penguin books, london, 1966.

globalisation and cyclical developments have been kind to the norwegian economy. few countries are benefiting as much as norway – and losing as little – in the current environment of freer trade in goods and services and cross - border labour mobility. 3. challenges to monetary policy after almost two decades of high inflation, the rise in prices stabilised in many countries in the 1990s. the year - on - year rise in prices in the industrial countries was about 13 per cent at the beginning of the 1980s. in the course of the following decade, it fell to below 2 per cent. today, most central banks orient monetary policy towards low and stable inflation. the practical implementation of monetary policy can vary, but the common objective is price stability. low and stable inflation has contributed to solid growth in the global economy in recent years. despite rising oil prices, international conflicts that have led to uncertainty, and other disturbances, the impact on inflation and output has been moderate. the perception in norway in the 1960s and 1970s, as in other countries, was that strong growth and low unemployment could be achieved if we were only willing to accept somewhat higher inflation. but it was gradually recognised that this was not the case. in 1980, odd aukrust, research director at statistics norway said the following about economic developments in norway : “ unfortunately, there is even less reason for optimism this time. it appears that the competitive position of norwegian manufacturing will weaken in the coming year. the main problem is that no one controls price developments. with an inflation rate of around 10 per cent a year, no one dares to make investments that could stop this price carousel. ” 3 from the second half of the 1980s, the authorities started using monetary policy to control inflation. at the beginning of the 1990s, inflation had fallen, and since 1988, inflation has averaged 2½ per cent. studies of price developments for all goods and services show that price formation underwent a permanent shift around 1988. 4 a transition occurred from a period of high and unstable inflation to the current period of low and stable inflation. bringing the rate of inflation down had its costs. in the years from 1988 to 1992, the norwegian economy experienced the deepest recession of the post - war period. but growth picked up quickly, and the 1990s as a whole were a golden decade. it also appears that the present decade will be favourable. a foundation was laid when the norwegian authorities took control of inflation. developments over the past 40 years illustrate that the most important contribution monetary policy can
crisis at the cost of imposing a heavy burden on the public budget, reinforced the turkish banking system ’ s resilience to shocks compared to the banking systems of other countries. another factor that will facilitate a relatively faster recovery for the turkish economy is the household indebtedness ratio, which is lower than those of many other emerging economies. households have been affected relatively less by exchange rate shocks owing to the significantly low share of fx loans in consumer loans. however, i would like to underline once more that economic recovery is expected to be gradual and slow as opposed to the rapid recovery in economic activity after the 1994 and 2001 crises experienced in turkey and that a significant vacceleration in aggregate demand is not expected anytime soon. persistent tightness in external financing conditions, the lagged and gradual recovery in our primary export markets and the large share of durables and capital goods exports, which are sensitive to foreign demand, indicate that recovery in the turkish economy will be different from what we have experienced so far. distinguished members of the world economic society, esteemed guests, it is a widely accepted fact that in modern economics, decision - makers act rationally and their decisions form a dynamic system in the field of economy. while measuring the efficiency of policies, their response to such policies over time is examined within a dynamic framework. as we can see in the conference program, almost every single topic in the economic literature is addressed from a dynamic perspective. we are on the brink of starting a two - day conference during which we will be listening to pioneer studies covering a wide range of topics from game theory to the labor market, from education economics to the functioning of the real estate market. there is no doubt that this is an invaluable experience for economists to catch up with the global economic agenda and to follow recent developments. i would like to thank everyone, particularly bahcesehir university and koc university, who have contributed to the organization of this conference. i hope that it will be a productive conference and i would also like to extend my regards to the contributors of this event, to the participants and all the guests.

3 bis central bankers'speeches governing council welcomes the ongoing work and urges further specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union. we are now at your disposal for questions. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches
need to measure up to such risks. internationalisation would make domestic monetary policy more challenging but the alternative of compromising on growth by playing it safe is clearly not an optimal choice. we need to calibrate our moves to the evolving size of our economy, particularly the size of the external sector and to our appetite for risk in framing policy for external trade and capital flows. but the direction is clear. * * *

internationalisation of the rupee : is it time to shift gears? 1 good evening. it gives me great pleasure to be part of the annual day event of the foreign exchange dealers association of india ( fedai ). since its inception in 1958, fedai has played a crucial role in the smooth conduct of foreign exchange business and development of forex markets. this role assumes greater significance in today ’ s age of rapidly evolving forex markets and innovations in financial products and instruments. 2. the global situation continues to experience uncertainty on multiple fronts, be it economics, geopolitics, or climate related. coming close on the heels of the covid - 19 pandemic, these challenges have caused the plates of both policymakers and market participants alike to be full. i would, therefore, like to take this opportunity amidst this august gathering to share some thoughts on the progress of the indian rupee ( inr ) on the path of greater acceptance in international markets, or “ internationalisation ”, its benefits and risks and conclude by offering a few suggestions which might aid the rupee ’ s onward journey. before proceeding, it might be a good idea, however, to do a quick recap of the journey of rupee markets thus far which will set the backdrop for our main theme of rupee internationalisation. 3. the early stages of foreign exchange management in the country emphasized on control of foreign exchange by regulating demand due to its limited availability. various controls were imposed on forex transactions through the foreign exchange regulation act ( fera ) of 1947, which was subsequently replaced by a more comprehensive and rigorous framework through fera, 1973. the approach to external sector management underwent a paradigm shift in the 1990s driven by the economic reforms keynote address delivered by shri t rabi sankar, deputy governor, reserve bank of india at the annual day event of the foreign exchange dealers association of india ( fedai ) on october 20, 2022 at mumbai. introduced in 1991. in line with the recommendations of the high - level committee on balance of payments ( chairman : dr c rangarajan, 1993 ), exchange rate of rupee was made market determined in 1993. in 1994, india accepted article viii of the articles of agreement of the international monetary fund ( imf ) making inr fully convertible on the current account. with enactment of the foreign exchange management act ( fema ) in 1999 to replace fera, the approach shifted from that of conservation to the management of foreign exchange through fa
graph 3 : delinquency rate on credit card loans 3 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 0 % the second risk is that the excellent economic environment in which we have operated until now might deteriorate. of particular note here is the global economy, which so far has proved to be extremely resistant to the sub - prime crisis. the same applies to the stock markets. save for a few corrections, they have held up fairly well since the middle of the year. this has strengthened banks'earnings situation in areas outside of the real estate business, thereby enabling banks affected by the credit crisis to compensate part of their losses. if the benchmark index of credit default swaps ( cds ) on us securities covered by commercial mortgage - backed securities ( commercial mbs ), 2 - 2006 vintage with aaa rating. source : markit. " delinquency rate on credit card loans ( all commercial banks ) ", usa. source : federal reserve. general economic environment were to deteriorate, this previous important source of stability would be adversely affected. nevertheless, we must stress that the banks are still operating in a stable real economic environment, and that economic data from europe, latin america and asia continue to provide evidence of robust growth momentum. what can be learned from the current crisis? how can we ensure that the kind of market turmoil we are experiencing at present can be avoided in the future, or at least does not occur on this kind of scale? and how can we make sure that the banking sector will be in a position to emerge from comparable or even worse disruptions unscathed? once again we need to stress that definitive conclusions cannot yet be drawn because the current crisis has not yet been overcome. however, as initial provisional lessons from the crisis, the following points seem particularly important to me. first, banks need to improve their transparency on a sustainable basis. the fact that, last summer, most banks came out with information on their positions in the sub - prime market only hesitantly, providing an incomplete picture, has made a significant contribution to the uncertainty in the interbank market. consequently, we are reiterating our request that banks do a better job in making information available on their existing risks. in order to promote market discipline, it must be possible for outsiders to be able to assess a bank's resilience under both normal and stress conditions. second, recent events highlight the limitations of risk - weighted capital adequacy requirements.

announced by ubs, which are aimed at strengthening its capital base, are to be welcomed. the fact that ubs has been able to attract a large and internationally recognised asian investor for this purpose serves as an illustration of one of the ways in which globalisation of financial markets has been to our advantage.