2021. in the central scenario, the economy will grow below its potential for several more quarters, so that the gap will continue to narrow and will turn negative beginning at the end of this year. in this scenario, gdp will post annual variations between 1. 75 % and 2. 25 % this year, between - 1. 5 % and - 0. 5 % in 2023, and between 2. 25 % and 3. 25 % in 2024. for this three - year period, our projection contemplates a fiscal spending trajectory that is consistent with that described in the last public finance report. activity outlook foresees that private consumption will continue to tighten, a result that largely stems from the expiration of the massive income - support measures adopted in 2021, as well as from the tightening of monetary policy. about investment, weak performance is anticipated through the remainder of 2022 and all of 2023, reflecting less favorable financial conditions, increased business pessimism, a higher real exchange rate, and declining, albeit slowly, uncertainty ( table 1 ). the current - account deficit will decrease in the coming quarters, in line with the continued adjustment of spending on tradables and a much more favorable savings - investment balance than in 2021. as income stimulus measures will not be repeated, both public and household savings will improve drastically compared to 2021, triggering a significant drop in the current - account deficit from the second half of this year onwards. higher interest rates, the high exchange rate, and lower international shipping costs will also contribute to this. by the end of 2022, it will be reduced by more than 2pp of gdp — accumulating 6. 3 % in the year — and by 2023 it will be between 3 % and 4 % of gdp. measured at trend prices, the deficit reduction will also be rapid and significant : from around 9 % in 2021 to around 3 % in 2023. ( figure 12 ). the external impulse to the chilean economy will be reduced mainly due to less favorable financial conditions and terms of trade, along with lower global demand. the central scenario anticipates that the fed's monetary policy will contract somewhat further, and for a longer period of time, than the fed announced in the june fed dots, which will result in long - lasting restrictive international financial conditions. this is the main factor behind the lower growth forecast for our trading partners, which will be at 2. 6 % this year and next. copper price will also

to adapt to our rapidly changing societies. the central banking community therefore actively supports the ongoing revision of these standards, not least to develop adequate methodologies for measuring new phenomena that constantly emerge. lastly, it is also important to reflect on our past while we grapple with current and future problems. an important development in this context was the recent ifc decision to host the historical monetary and financial statistics ( hmfs ) central bank network. this network brings together statisticians and academic experts to exchange approaches to compile historic data and to facilitate learning from each other. noteworthy advancements have already been made in the dissemination of long - term statistics concerning credit, interest rates, housing prices and, more recently, central banks'balance sheets. i am confident that the insights shared and the discussions held during this conference will facilitate our understanding of how data governance, it advancements, and practical applications of data science are shaping modern statistical analyses and in turn supporting central banks'public mandates. it is through such gatherings that we can learn from one another, exchange ideas, and build bridges that transcend borders. i am confident that, by working together, we can better harness the power of data to strengthen the resilience and effectiveness of policy actions. i wish you all fruitful and engaging discussions. 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches