of this is our new rules on collective investment undertakings, which will underpin bahrain ’ s position as the region ’ s leading funds centre, by introducing – for the first time – regulations specifically geared for expert funds and other alternative asset classes, such as hedge funds. collectively, these initiatives have aimed to ensure that bahrain maintains its leading role as a financial centre, in terms of responding to evolving market demands. i am pleased to say that these efforts were positively acknowledged by the imf last year, in their financial sector assessment review of bahrain. but we are not complacent, and we will be continuing to develop our regulations in light of market needs and evolving standards. on this note, let me now turn to my colleague from the edb, shaikh mohammed bin khalifa al - khalifa, who will present in more detail bahrain ’ s financial sector.

far removed from the monetary policy reference. indeed, since 2013 euro area inflation has averaged 0. 9 %, practically half that observed during the first 10 years of emu ( 2. 1 % ). in parallel, the financial markets - based indicators of long - term inflation expectations have fallen forcefully since late last year and are holding at very low levels. that broadly coincides with the signals captured in opinion - based surveys. these indicators are habitually used to ascertain how anchored inflation expectations are with respect to the ecb ’ s medium - term objective ( inflation rate at below, but close to, 2 % ). true, most of the reduction in inflation expectations according to the market indicators appears to be due to the decline in the in france, real gdp rose by 0. 4 % quarter - on - quarter in the last quarter of 2018, while in spain it rose by 0. 7 % in the first quarter of 2019. 6 / 16 inflation risk premium. but the level of this premium is in negative territory, indicating that agents would appear to be hedging against the risk of very low or even negative inflation rates. as regards the medium - term outlook, the latest ecb survey of professional forecasters showed an average forecast of annual hicp - based inflation of 1. 3 %, 1. 4 % and 1. 5 % for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, marking a downward revision of 0. 1 pp for each year compared with the previous forecast. for 2021 it is even below the eurosystem ’ s june projection, which placed it at 1. 6 %. there is also evidence that euro area economic agents are setting greater store by recently observed inflation when determining their inflation expectations and, therefore, their price and wage - setting decisions. the persistence in recent years of very moderate inflation rates might be behind this. 6 in this setting, the risks to the euro area growth outlook remain clearly tilted to the downside. they reflect the prolonged presence of protectionist tensions ; the uncertainty associated with geopolitical factors ( such as brexit and the political uncertainty in italy ) ; the doubts over the intensity of the ongoing slowdown in china and the possible repercussions for the global economy as a whole ; and the vulnerabilities that some emerging economies, such as turkey and argentina, continue to evidence. there are also some structural factors suggesting that a setting of low growth, modest inflation and, consequently, low interest rates might prevail