. figures for " actual base pay increase " and " actual regular wage increase " from 1991 to 2014 are those published by the central labour relations commission, while those from 2015 to 2024 are figures released by the japanese trade union confederation ( rengo ). figures are based on the wage negotiation results of labor unions for which the base pay increase is clear. sources : central labour relations commission ; ministry of internal affairs and communications ; rengo. next, i will turn to business fixed investment. on the back of favorable corporate profits on the whole, business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend ; as for the business fixed investment plans in the june 2024 tankan ( short - term economic survey of enterprises in japan ), the reported rate for fiscal 2024 indicates a relatively high increase compared with past june tankan surveys ( chart 4 ). under such circumstances, the remaining orders for machinery and construction have stayed on an increasing trend, as there have been some cases where firms postponed fixed investment in response to labor shortages. regarding the outlook, although the amount of business fixed investment could be pushed down due to these postponements, such investment is likely to follow a long - term uptrend. this is due to firm demand for fixed investment, such as investment to address labor shortages and digitalrelated investment, as well as investments associated with the green transformation and with strengthening supply chains. chart 4 : business fixed investment planned and actual investment remaining orders y / y % chg. 40 tril. yen tankan ( planned investment in current fiscal year as of the june survey of each year ) private nonresidential investment ( sna, nominal ) tankan ( actual ) tril. yen 30 machinery ( excluding orders for ships, left scale ) construction ( right scale ) - 10 - 20 fy08 cy19 notes : 1. in the left panel, tankan figures include software and r & d investments and exclude land purchasing expenses. figures are for all industries including financial institutions. 2. in the left panel, the figure for " private nonresidential investment " for fiscal 2024 is for 2024 / q2. 3. in the right panel, figures for " construction " are based on a survey of 50 major construction companies. sources : cabinet office ; ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism ; bank of japan. b. price developments turning to japan's price developments, the year - on - year rate of increase in the consumer price index

greater demand for oil requires a different monetary policy reaction than a price increase caused by reduced supply. underlying inflation cannot offer any clarity regarding that difference. so there are both fundamental and statistical reasons why founding a policy on any single underlying measure of inflation would be to court disaster. although rejecting a central role for underlying inflation, the eurosystem ’ s monetary policy still aims to absorb shocks as best it can. external shocks may temporarily push inflation beyond the limits of the price stability zone. this is one of the reasons why our definition of price stability has a medium - term orientation. the other reason is that monetary policy tends to pass through to inflation with a lag averaging some eighteen months. yet it is very difficult to specify exactly what is meant by the medium term. lag times vary, and during the time it takes for a policy decision to take effect on inflation, new shocks may occur. seen in this light, a temporary inflation rate above 2 % is not a disaster, and neither is an occasional fall in the price level. but eventually, the eurosystem will have to deliver the goods, that is, price stability. that is the foundation on which the governing council renders account of past policy. the council makes its decisions jointly. the responsibility for price stability is shared by all members. so far, the council has never voted over its interest rate policy, which points to a high level of consensus. but this emphatically does not mean that everyone has always agreed on everything, which in itself is a good thing. consensus only implies that all members of the council have been able eventually to go along with every interest rate decision. has consensus slowed down monetary policy decision - making? no, it has not. the reason why is that the governing council, although eighteen members strong, is homogeneous in character : members share a preference for price stability. consensus - building has been strongly supported by the obligation under the treaty to work towards price stability. communication if we look at the bare figures, monetary policy has been a success, as i have already noted. yet, communicating it has not always been straightforward. several aspects may be distinguished. on each of these aspects, however, progress has been made over time. in the first place, policy decisions have not always been correctly understood by the public. this is not very surprising, since the eurosystem is a new institution with a new monetary strategy. however, now that it has come into its own, after a few years, this