speeches mostly returned to normal. 1 and the economy grew far faster than anyone expected last year. labor supply has been boosted by an increase in labor force participation among individuals aged 25 - 54 years, as well as by increased immigration flows. at the same time, the labor market has remained strong. the unemployment rate has been under 4 percent for more than two years, which is the longest stretch at that rate in over 50 years - even longer ago than the release of pink floyd's " dark side of the moon. " inflation has come down substantially, too. the 12 - month percent change in the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index has continued to decline, falling from its 40 - year high of above 7 percent in mid - 2022 to 2 - 1 / 2 percent in the latest reading. all in all, there has been tremendous progress toward better balance. but this episode is not yet over, and i am still very focused on ensuring we achieve both of our goals. a better - balanced labor market i'm going to delve further into the trends underlying both sides of our dual mandate, starting with employment. when the u. s. economy recovered from the pandemic, the labor market turned red - hot. demand for workers far exceeded supply, and that imbalance contributed to rapid wage growth and high inflation. now, the labor market has shown signs of returning to something closer to normal. nationally, many indicators - such as quits rates and surveys of perceptions of availability of workers and jobs - have returned to ranges seen before the pandemic. the current unemployment rate of 3. 8 percent equals my estimate for the unemployment rate that is likely to prevail over the longer run, and job growth continues to be solid. the story in the federal reserve's second district - an area with similar boundaries to that of the federal home loan bank of new york - is much like the national one. our business contacts indicate that here, too, labor demand and supply are moving into better balance. in particular, we are hearing from businesses that it is becoming less difficult to find qualified workers. despite the progress in restoring balance, two important indicators point to lingering tightness in the labor market : job openings and wage growth. job vacancies, which reached record highs in 2022, have trended lower since then, but are still quite elevated relative to pre - pandemic norms. and while we have seen measures of wage growth come down from their

will be to slow the pace of decline in our securities holdings. while the committee made no decision at our recent meeting, most fomc participants said it would be appropriate to slow the pace of runoff fairly soon, consistent with the plans we previously discussed. 7 the decision to slow the pace is in no way indicating an imminent cessation of shrinking the balance sheet. rather, by slowing the pace, we're better able to monitor conditions and facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserves. closing i'll close by saying that price stability is the bedrock upon which our economic prosperity stands. the economy has come a long way toward achieving better balance and reaching our 2 percent inflation goal. but we have not seen the total alignment of our dual mandate quite yet. i am committed to achieving maximum employment and price stability over the long term. therefore, i will remain focused on the data, the economic outlook, and the risks as we evaluate the appropriate path for monetary policy to best achieve our goals. thank you. 4 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches 1 federal reserve bank of new york, global supply chain pressure index. 2 federal reserve bank of new york, inflation expectations are mixed ; consumers express concerns about retaining and finding jobs, april 8, 2024. 3 board of governors of the federal reserve system, federal reserve issues fomc statement, march 20, 2024. 4 board of governors of the federal reserve system, summary of economic projections from the march 19 - 20 fomc meeting, march 20, 2024. 5 board of governors of the federal reserve system, plans for reducing the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet, may 4, 2022. 6 board of governors of the federal reserve system, principles for reducing the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet, january 26, 2022. 7 board of governors of the federal reserve system, minutes of the federal open market committee, march 19 – 20, 2024 ; board of governors of the federal reserve system, transcript of chair powell's press conference, march 20, 2024. 5 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches