25th assiom forex congress speech by the governor of the bank of italy ignazio visco rome, 2 february 2019 recent economic developments since mid - 2018 the global economy has been slowing. the euro area has recorded a significant weakening of productive activity ; in italy it has declined. several factors, some of which are temporary, have contributed to the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation ; the foreign demand outlook, firms ’ expectations and investment trends have also worsened. in the second half of 2018, industrial production in the euro area declined by 0. 5 per cent. the fall was sharpest in germany ( 2. 2 per cent ) and italy ( 0. 8 per cent ), in part owing to the automotive sector ’ s compliance with the new international legislation on emissions from light - duty vehicles. in italy domestic demand was affected by heightened uncertainty, initially linked to doubts about the country ’ s stance on participation in the single currency and then to the difficult passage of the budget law, marked by clashes with the european commission that were not resolved until the end of the year. the resulting increase in the risk premium on government debt was transmitted to private sector borrowing costs at a time when share prices were falling. our latest growth projections for italy in 2019 published in january ’ s economic bulletin stand at 0. 6 per cent, in line with those of the leading national and international forecasters, but with significant risks on the downside. compared with the early december estimates – when the central projection was for 1. 0 per cent growth – the revision mostly reflects the incorporation of unfavourable economic data that have since become available, confirmed by those for the fourth quarter released this week by istat. other contributory factors were the cutbacks in investment plans reported by firms in our surveys and the worsening of foreign demand expectations. the projections take account of the support given to aggregate demand in the expansionary budgetary measures for 2019, whose effective contribution will depend on how they are implemented. the agreement reached by the government and the european commission has partially lowered tensions in the government securities market, with generally positive effects on demand. economic activity will benefit from the maintenance of highly accommodative monetary conditions. the projections for this year and the subsequent two - year period, which indicate a return to growth of around 1 per cent, are subject to notable risk factors originating both inside and outside of italy. the main external factors are the performance of foreign trade, vulnerabilities in emerging countries, and

reise was an essential bridge between the culture of germany and that of the land wo die zitronen bluhen. the programme for these days revisits our cultural heritage, our artistic and historical legacy, but it also reflects the culture and cultural activities of present - day italy. classical music is the centrepiece of the opening and closing concerts as well as the charity event, but there will also be presentations of contemporary italian music. the italian film days are entirely given over to contemporary directors and will offer the opportunity to reflect on the ways in which the traditional italian family model has changed. in literature, the themes range from the deeper meaning of cultural identity to the role of women in the risorgimento. this evening the orchestra mozart will perform the opening concert under the baton of claudio abbado. the maestro ’ s career, his essential embodiment of the universal language of music, certainly needs no presentation. i cannot even begin to sum up the course of his art. let me merely recall that he has conducted some of the world ’ s greatest orchestras : the berliner philarmoniker, the wiener philarmoniker, la scala. constantly engaged with social problems and active in promoting the artistic growth and careers of young musicians, claudio abbado has founded a series of orchestras for young instrumentalists of artistic excellence, including notably the chamber orchestra of europe and the orchestra mozart, which came bis central bankers ’ speeches into being in bologna. both draw their players from a vast range of different countries, talented young musicians playing alongside established soloists. the orchestra mozart owes its name to the role that the city of bologna played in mozart ’ s development. it was with the philharmonic academy of bologna – one of the centres of european cultural life – that mozart, at the age of fourteen, took his diploma as “ maestro compositore ” on the 9th of october 1770. music as solidarity, music as social life, music as at once expression of and factor in personal and cultural growth. these are the values that claudio abbado and all these young musicians have brought with them to the orchestra mozart, from the very start. now, it is my pleasure to leave you to the sublime art of gioacchino rossini. claudio abbado conducts the orchestra mozart in the overture to the barber of seville. bis central bankers ’ speeches