attention. chart 1 measures of output gap for the euro area source : european commission, imf, oecd. note : the european commission ’ s output - gap measure displayed in the chart refers to “ trend gdp gap ”. making the simplifying assumption that data revised 3 years after the initial estimates are approximately correct, the chart displays revised data for the period up to spring 2002. chart 2 developments in long - term inflation expectations note : last observation is april 2005 for consensus economics forecast, and july 2005 for sdf and beir. chart 3a chart 3b survey of professional forecasters : probability survey of professional forecasters : disagreement of 5 - years ahead forecast of that 5 - years ahead inflation may stand at or inflation above 2 % note : disagreement is measured as the standard deviation of individual forecasters ’ point estimates. chart 4a chart 4b developments in short - term and long - term inflation expectations in the euro area developments in short - term and long - term inflation expectations in the united states ( 20 - day centred moving averages of daily observations, march 2004 - august 2005 ) ( 20 - day centred moving averages of daily observations, march 2004 - august 2005 ) note : short - term inflation expectations are measured by the note : short - term inflation expectations are measured by the 2008 beir. long - term inflation expectations are measured by 2009 beir. long - term inflation expectations are measured by the implied forward beir 2008 - 14. the implied forward beir 2009 - 14. chart 5 money market rates, implied forward rates and minimum bid rate note : the minimum bid rate in the ecb ’ s main refinancing operations is one of the ecb ’ s key policy rates. last observation is 23 august 2005. annex table 1 macroeconomic developments in the euro area and the us ( annual percentage changes, unless otherwise specified ) sources : european commission, us bureau of economic analysis, bureau of labor statistics, federal reserve board note : ( 1 ) hicp for the euro area, cpi for the us ; ( 2 ) total economy for euro area and business sector for the us table 2 survey - based measures of long - term inflation expectations for the euro area and the united states ( 1999 - 2005 ) sources : consensus economics inc., ecb calculations, reuters. note : ( a ) long - term inflation expectations from consensus economics refer to 6 - 10 years ahead. the last observation is april 2005. for the euro area, data before 2003 are taken from ec

, especially since tiber has been embraced by 17 central banks all over europe. and even by the european colegislators, given that starting january 2025, tiber will be included in european law and will then be called tlpt : threat - led penetration testing. 2 / 4 bis - central bankers'speeches still, there was a clear need for something more, something alongside tiber or tlpt. a need that could be summarised as a need for a voluntary test framework, one that is more modular, so that it can be tailored more easily to the specific testing needs of an organisation. of your organisation. and art is our answer to this need – ready for you to use. whether you are a small or a large organisation – the former is no less important, sometimes the opposite is in fact the case. whether you have an advanced cyber security policy, or one that is more limited in terms of scale and scope. or whether you operate in the financial sector, or elsewhere – like the healthcare or the telecom sector, or the government. later today, you will get a more detailed presentation on art. this will give you the opportunity to ask all your questions – about art, tiber or tlpt. but really – with this new framework, with art, there is no reason not to test your cyber security. whether it is a very specific real - life scenario you want to test, or whether you want to use it as a stepping stone to tiber, or even to set it up as a test that goes beyond tiber. the modular set - up of art will make testing more accessible and hence increase our overall cyber resilience. and that is necessary. it is an unpleasant realisation, but actual lives are at stake in what is essentially a numbers game. a game of ones and zeros. a game of investing time and money into protecting those ones and zeros, and hence yourself and the people who rely on you – whether it's for your financial expertise, your medical care, your communication infrastructure or as their political representatives. you and i know that testing your cyber security and subsequently improving it – if and where needed – is an effective way to keep hackers out. you and i know, that it takes time and money to do so. but we also all know that your time and money are not unlimited. that is why we are launching art. a new framework we strongly believe in. a voluntary, modular