banks call for interest rate rises, this is an indication of their belief that the yield curve will steepen and the term spread will increase with a rise in interest rates. however, as i have explained, the facts prove that a rise in interest rates does not guarantee a steepening of the yield curve. moreover, if monetary easing is discontinued, prices will decline, the economy will deteriorate, and nominal interest rates will decline. financial for more on this point, see harada yutaka, " naze nihon no kinri wa hikui no ka, " keiki to saikuru, no. 62, japan association of business cycle studies, november 2016. institutions seem to expect that, in the case of a rise in interest rates, only the rates on investment will increase without any changes in foreign exchange rates as well as prices of stocks and bonds, or a decline in firms'willingness to borrow. i am afraid this is not realistic. rather, premature policy tightening in the past caused economic deterioration, a decline in both prices and production, and lowered interest rates in the long run. it can be said to have played a role in creating the challenges faced by the financial industry today. iv. the economic outlook and the price stability target of 2 percent i mentioned earlier that the economy currently may be weak, and the same can be said about prices. even so, if the economy continues to recover, the labor market will tighten and prices eventually will rise. there are some hurdles to overcome in achieving stable price rises, however. first is the difficult situation the economy currently faces, as you are already familiar with. looking back at japan's past trends, the economy often would enter a recession when the sluggishness of the global economy held back exports, leading to a decline in business fixed investment and consumption. while a typical example of this is the recession following the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the stagnation in japan's economy from the latter half of 2015 also can be said to have been affected significantly by the sluggishness of the global economy, especially china. second is consumption tax hikes. tax hikes could push the economy into recession, and a resultant decrease in demand could push down prices. regarding the hike scheduled to take place in october 2019, its effects are likely to be smaller than those of the previous hike in april 2014 due to the following reasons : the rate increase - - from 8 percent to 10 percent -

around 2014. while it is difficult for the elderly to obtain regular employment, the fact is that more and more are gaining the opportunity to work. in september 2017, the government launched the " council for designing a 100 - year life society, " and in june 2018 it released the report " [ b ] asic [ d ] esign for the human resources development revolution, " calling for increased employment of the elderly. 3 at the same time, however, the proliferation of the notion of a " 100 - year life " may have made people aware of the longevity risk again, which may have led to the rise in the savings rate, or in other words, the decline in the consumption rate, which i will talk about later. decrease in suicides when unable to find a job in the face of a difficult employment situation, being under such stress causes one to question their worth to society. indeed, studies show that suicides increase in tandem with a rise in the number of unemployed. 4 assuming that this is true, suicides should decrease if the unemployment rate were to decline. chart 3, which shows the number of suicides and the unemployment rate, indicates that the two are linked : as the unemployment rate rises, the number of suicides increases, and vice versa. while i do not think that suicides are caused by economic problems alone, what is clear is that the number of suicides per year has fallen by 7, 000 or more since 2012 as a result of the upturn in the economy and the decline in the unemployment rate. at the g - 20 symposium " for a better future : demographic changes and macroeconomic challenges " held in january 2019, seven out of 13 speakers stressed the importance of labor force participation by the elderly in overcoming demographic challenges posed by the aging population. 4 see, for example, yasuyuki sawada, michiko ueda, and tetsuya matsubayashi, economic analysis of suicide prevention towards evidence - based policy - making, singapore : springer, 2017. chart 3 unemployment rate and suicides 40, 000 persons % 35, 000 30, 000 25, 000 20, 000 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 1980 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 number of suicides unemployment rate ( right scale ) sources : national police agency, " suicide statistics " ; ministry of internal affairs and communications, " labour force survey. " slight increase in the birth rate i think