place over the past few quarters. with the quarter - on - quarter growth rate of real gdp at 0. 9 % for the second quarter of 2006 and on the basis of upward revisions to the real gdp growth data for the two preceding quarters, economic activity has been growing robustly, at a quarterly rate of around 0. 7 % on average over the last four quarters. in addition, the unemployment rate has been on a falling trend, employment growth has recovered and employment expectations have remained favourable. the incoming information on activity in the third quarter further supports the assessment that economic activity will continue to grow robustly, while possibly moderating somewhat. looking ahead to the remainder of 2006 and 2007, the conditions remain in place for the euro area economy to grow at solid rates around potential, with some volatility in the quarterly growth rates likely to emerge around the turn of the year. global economic activity has become more balanced across regions and is still robust, thereby providing ongoing support for euro area exports. investment is expected to remain strong, benefiting from an extended period of very favourable financing conditions, balance sheet restructuring, accumulated and ongoing strong earnings, and gains in business efficiency. consumption growth in the euro area should also strengthen further over time, in line with developments in real disposable income, as employment conditions continue to improve. this outlook was already embodied in the ecb staff macroeconomic projections of september, which for the first time included slovenia as part of the euro area in the projections for 2007. in the view of the governing council, risks to the outlook for economic growth are broadly balanced over the shorter term, although the recent fall in oil prices – if it were to prove lasting – has the potential to lead to somewhat stronger demand and output growth than embodied in the governing council ’ s baseline scenario for activity in the coming quarters. over the longer term, risks to growth lie on balance on the downside, and relate mainly to the possibility of renewed oil price increases, further protectionist pressures and disorderly developments owing to global imbalances. turning to price developments, annual hicp inflation rates have declined somewhat over the last few months, standing below 2 % in september and mainly reflecting favourable base effects combined with the recent significant fall in oil prices. however, although the outlook for energy prices is uncertain, also taking into account current energy prices and the higher quotations on futures markets, headline inflation rates are likely to increase again towards the end of the year and in early 2007. as a

first time, we are communicating about future policy rates with a date, even if it ’ s still only indicative. in our jargon, we call this “ enhanced forward guidance ”. now that we have decided to end the net asset purchases, this enhanced guidance is necessary to anchor expectations. in the end, what will these three years of qe have achieved? don ’ t forget that these measures were decided on in autumn 2014, in the face of a slowdown in growth and a heightened risk of deflation. we needed to react very strongly. qe has considerably improved the financing conditions of households and firms, restarted growth and eliminated the risk of deflation. a spanish sme can now borrow at the same interest rate as a german sme. qe has been criticised for benefiting those most well off … i disagree. first, our monetary policy has helped the millions of unemployed who lost their job during the recession. the unemployment rate in the euro area is falling steadily, to a large extent thanks to monetary policy. 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches