the precovid level, and inflation has been running below 2 percent for years. we will need to be patient to achieve the outcomes set out in our guidance. 1 i am grateful to kurt lewis for assistance in preparing these remarks. these remarks represent my own views, which do not necessarily represent those of the federal reserve board or the federal open market committee. 2 see, for example, the federal reserve bank of atlanta ’ s gdpnow, which revised up the estimate for first - quarter growth by 5 percentage points on the release of the retail sales data. the latest estimate is 8. 8 percent. the gdpnow forecast is available on the federal reserve bank of atlanta ’ s website at www. frbatlanta. org / cqer / research / gdpnow. 3 for more information, see the centers for disease control and prevention ’ s covid data page, which is available at covid. cdc. gov / covid - data - tracker. 4 see the lower panel of figure 3 in lael brainard ( 2021 ), " how should we think about full employment in the federal reserve ’ s dual mandate? " speech delivered at the ec10, principles of economics, lecture, faculty of arts and sciences, harvard university, cambridge, mass. ( via webcast ), february 24. 5 the percentages are staff calculations based on the microdata from the january current population survey. for more information on this analysis, see the box “ disparities in job loss during the pandemic ” in board of governors of the federal reserve system ( 2021 ), monetary policy report ( pdf ) ( washington : board of governors, february ), pp. 12 – 14. 6 see olivia lofton, nicolas petrosky - nadeau, and lily seitelman ( 2021 ), " parents in a pandemic labor market, " working paper 2021 – 04 ( san francisco : federal reserve bank of san francisco, february ) ; and lael brainard ( 2020 ), " achieving a broad - based and inclusive recovery, " speech delivered at “ post - covid — policy challenges for the global economy, ” society of professional economists annual online conference, october 21. 7 for more information on the analysis on employment by wage quartile, see the box “ disparities in job loss during the pandemic ” in board of governors, monetary policy report, in note 5. 8 for examples of the range of estimates of the effects of the

thomas jordan : the euro and swiss monetary policy speech by mr thomas jordan, chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the europa forum lucerne, lucerne, 2 may 2016. * * * the speaker would like to thank tobias cwik and mathias zurlinden for their valuable support in preparing this speech. he also extends his thanks to petra gerlach and carlos lenz, as well as to communications and language services at the snb. when the euro was created almost two decades ago, there was considerable uncertainty about how the currency would impact switzerland. my predecessors on the governing board of the swiss national bank regularly commented on subsequent euro developments in speeches and frequently voiced their expectations and concerns. things ran fairly smoothly in the first few years ; but the financial and debt crisis rocked the currency union and put the euro under pressure. the snb has responded with a flexible and pragmatic monetary policy. as the difficulties have not yet been overcome, it is too early to draw definite conclusions. one thing is clear, however : getting to grips with the challenges we face has been – and remains – harder than the cartoon character in the picture suggests ( cf. chart 1 ). from the snb ’ s point of view, the experiences of recent years have once again highlighted the importance and value of monetary sovereignty. monetary sovereignty has its price, of course, but it remains true that the interests of our country are best served by retaining this independence. economic importance of the eu, the euro and the ecb ladies and gentlemen, as you all know, the eu is switzerland ’ s most important foreign trade partner. and within the eu, the euro area countries play a particularly important role for us. in 2015, exports to the euro area accounted for around 44 % of total exports ; the share of imports from the euro area was larger still. although the share of exports to the euro area has fallen by around 10 percentage points since 2000 – we are increasingly diversifying our foreign trade towards the emerging markets in particular – overall, the euro area countries remain by far the biggest consumers of swiss products ( cf. chart 2 ). the particular significance of the euro area for swiss foreign trade means that the exchange rate to the euro is an important variable, both for our economy and for the snb ’ s monetary policy. the exchange rate influences the price of foreign goods in switzerland – and thus also inflation, as measured by the national consumer price index ; but it also impacts the price of