so the rose study was based on data on currency unions involving poor and / or small countries. as noted by micco, stein and ordonez ( 2003 ), “ one does not need to be a eurosceptic to wonder whether such findings are directly applicable to europe ’ s single currency ”. follow - up studies ( e. g. rose and wincoop ( 2001 ), kenen ( 2002 ), persson ( 2001 ) ) attempted to correct the rose ’ s estimates but arrived, rather inconclusively, at anything between a 50 % and 150 % growth of bilateral trade. recently, the first studies based on euro area data have emerged. these show that the trade creation effect of the euro has been substantial, although ( until now ) by an order of magnitude smaller that the original rose ’ s estimate ( e. g. micco, stein and ordonez ( 2003 ) ). our knowledge about trade creation effects of the euro is still far from complete and we will probably have to wait another 10 + years to have enough data to draw firm conclusions about its magnitude in the eurozone. now let me move to the cost side. as already noted in contrast to the benefits, some costs have a contingent character. they are tail - events – rather unlikely but with a possibly high impact if they occur. let me focus on two issues : • asymmetric shocks, • arising micro - and macroeconomic imbalances. shocks are by definition something we cannot foresee. asymmetric shocks are shocks that affect only selected member ( s ) of a monetary union. such events are considered the biggest threat to unions ( mundell 1961 ), because joining a common currency area substantially reduces the set of policy tools which could be used to mitigate the impact of the shock. let us assume that a negative demand shock affects the polish economy ( e. g. consumers decide to buy less polish goods and services ). in the short and medium run, this brings about a reduction in output and higher unemployment. as long as poland has its own currency, it can use both monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate demand and reduce the impact of the shock on output and employment. moreover, the exchange rate might adjust ( depreciate ) and thus make our exports more price - competitive. once in the eurozone, two of these channels are closed. first, there is no independent domestic monetary policy which could lower interest rates, and one should not expect the ec

felipe m medalla : setting the future and next steps for open finance speech by mr felipe m medalla, governor of bangko sentral ng pilipinas ( bsp, the central bank of the philippines ), at the bangko sentral ng pilipinas, world bank, and international finance corporation's joint event on open finance, manila, 21 june 2023. * * * to paramita dasgupta [ of the international finance corporation ], maria lourdes jocelyn pineda [ of the open finance oversight committeea€ “ transition group ], fellow members of the monetary board, friends from the banking industry, and colleagues, good morning. thank you for joining us in this event, themed " philippine financial sector resilience strategy : open finance - driving digitalization and cybersecurity. " the promise of open finance to put it very simply, what are the gates? the gates, of course, are more competition and the other is data - sharing, which will actually improve our ability to assess borrowing capacity and so on and so forth. at the center of all this is the consumer, the individual owning the data. it is a two - way thing, right? there are times when you [ the bank ] have good information on the clients. of course, you do not want to share it with others. this is what is happening in a lot of closed systems. so, how do you get the benefit of both? more competition, more data - sharing. recognizing the risks : cybersecurity risks threaten trust and confidence in the system if you think people are already afraid of the current system because of all of these [ cybersecurity risks ] that can happen, you share your otp [ one - time password ] with somebody, and then, all of a sudden, you lost 100, 000. by the way, some of the people i know who lost money are very smart. they are just too busy. i know a thoracic surgeon who was so busy and so trusting that he shared his otp and lost 200, 000. these are some concerns that have to be addressed. of course, you should also be able to say what happens when things go wrongaccountability. i have a good example. i will not name the company, but it has been in the news. [ for ] some account holders [ of an electronic wallet ( e - wallet ) ], their money was transferred to bank accounts [