cross - border payments : final report ( financial stability board, october 2021 ), https : / / www. fsb. org / wp - content / uploads / p131021 - 2. pdf. see “ bank on, ” cities for financial empowerment fund, https : / / cfefund. org / project / bank - on /. in the united states, approximately 95. 5 percent of u. s. households were “ banked ” in 2021, meaning that at least one member of the household held a bank account. federal deposit insurance corporation, “ 2021 fdic national survey of unbanked and underbanked households ” ( july 2022 ), https : / / www. fdic. gov / analysis / householdsurvey / 2021report. pdf. - 9across borders. these private sector developments complement ongoing public sector crossborder initiatives, including the g20 work. continued collaboration like these efforts across the public and private sectors must support responsible innovation, including a well - defined regulatory perimeter that protects consumers and the broader financial system. i ’ d like to take a moment to highlight two instances in which the federal reserve has provided clarity to support financial inclusion within a framework of responsible innovation. first, the fed issued an interagency statement in support of banks engaging in small - dollar lending. 11 this guidance underscores the importance of financial institutions offering smalldollar loan products to consumers and small businesses that support successful repayment outcomes and that avoid continuous cycles of debt due to rollover and reborrowing. additionally, the statement recognizes that these products can help borrowers transition into other types of credit - based financial products. second, the fed also issued an interagency statement on the use of alternative data in credit underwriting. 12 this guidance clarifies that with a customer ’ s consent, a bank can use alternative data, like checking account balance activity, to help evaluate the creditworthiness of a potential borrower who might not otherwise qualify for a loan. in both cases, timely guidance has sought to support responsible innovation and leverage the cashflow information on deposit accounts to meet their customers ’ needs. while i have highlighted a few examples that illustrate the connection between payments and financial inclusion, the fed supports and participates in several initiatives to broadly enhance board of governors of the federal reserve system, federal deposit insurance corporation, national credit union administration, office of the comptroller of the currency, “ interagency lending principles

on unit labor costs ( labor costs per unit of output ). through fiscal 2007, unit labor costs are likely to show smaller declines, and to start increasing slightly at some point. one of the factors holding back upward pressures on prices during the economic recovery phase has been declining unit labor costs. as the effect of this factor diminishes, prices will be more inclined to rise than before. as for the year - on - year rate of change in the consumer price index ( cpi ; excluding fresh food ), which has been positive since november 2005, we estimate that this will gradually rise to around the middle of the range between zero and 1 percent in fiscal 2006 and to slightly below 1 percent in fiscal 2007. iii. upside and downside risks to the outlook for economic activity in the above sections, i have outlined the core elements of the most likely projection for economic activity and prices. however, the economy constantly faces various risks and it should be noted that, should particular risks materialize, economic activity and prices may deviate from this projection. as downside risks to the outlook for economic activity, the april 2006 outlook report raises the following factors : slowdown in the growth of the world economy ; and inventory adjustments, for example, in it - related sectors. as for the first risk factor, developments in crude oil prices, which have been rising, and their impact on the world economy warrant attention. in relation to this, there is also a risk of a change in the situation where stable financial conditions are durable and inflationary pressures generally subdued which has been supporting the ongoing global economic expansion. with regard to the second factor, it should be borne in mind that inventory adjustments may be triggered as the economic recovery matures. even if inventory adjustment occurs, it is unlikely that inventory adjustment carried out in some industries would seriously affect overall economic activity, since japanese firms as a whole have completed adjustments in various excesses and their profitability has been recovering. as an upside risk to the outlook for economic activity, there is a possibility of further acceleration of business fixed investment. if firms accelerate investment, there may be a positive impact on overall growth. on the other hand, such acceleration may lead to an excessive build - up of the capital stock relative to the level of expected growth in demand, which may precipitate an economic slowdown via adjustments. given that the output gap has already closed, if economic activity accelerates further and as a result the positive output gap widens rapidly, this will