, and the downward phase without a slump, that would be a major achievement. we have, by and large, managed the first part and there are some promising early signs that things may turn out not too badly in the second. but early signs are just that : early. it is far too soon to think about counting any chickens yet. let ’ s also be clear that the capacity to fine - tune these outcomes is very limited. most importantly, for today ’ s discussion, even if we do manage this episode as successfully as we might dare hope, major long - run challenges will remain. these are the things i want to highlight today, two of them in particular. first, fiscal sustainability. the debate here has, i would have to say, been overly - focused on budget outcomes in particular years. the real issues are medium - term ones. put simply, there are things we want to do as a society, and have voted for, that are not fully funded by taxes over the medium term, as is starting to become clear in the lead up to the may budget. here i refer to the very important speech given last evening by my colleague, treasury secretary, martin parkinson. 1 our situation is not dire by the standards of other countries but neither are the issues trivial. a conversation needs to be had about this. second, demographics. more people will be moving into retirement, and fewer people entering the workforce, over the years ahead. our regular discussion doesn ’ t pay much attention to this. it ’ s understandable that with very public announcements of job losses – albeit many of them several years into the future – people become worried about jobs. they ask : where will future jobs come from? there are two things to say. one is they will come from areas we don ’ t see yet. in the middle of 1991, at the low point of the last serious recession, people were very pessimistic about future employment prospects. the rate of unemployment was in double digits. parkinson m ( 2014 ), “ fiscal sustainability & living standards – the decade ahead ”, speech at the sydney institute, sydney, 2 april http : / / www. treasury. gov. au / publicationsandmedia / speeches / 2014 / fiscal _ sustainability. bis central bankers ’ speeches but today, over 20 years later, there are nearly 4 million more jobs in the economy than there were then. the rate of unemployment, even though it has gone up recently, is just slightly more than half what

of direct debits has worked well in some respects, but a more modern system is now needed. the payto service will allow households and businesses to authorise other entities to initiate payments out of their accounts, opening up a range of possibilities for innovation. we expect the industry to keep its commitment to a successful launch of the new system in july next year. the second area where we would like to see more progress is the ‘ payment with document ’ overlay on the npp. this service, and particularly the ability to include a link to a document with a payment, would promote innovation and reduce costs. this service will aid reconciliation for recipients. and payers will find they need to devote fewer resources to managing customer queries. unfortunately, progress by the industry has been slow here. despite this, the rba – as the australian government's banker – https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2021 / sp - gov - 2021 - 12 - 09. html 4 / 9 payments : the future? | speeches | rba is working with the government and with the commonwealth bank to introduce the payment with a document service. we encourage others to join this effort. further progress is also needed to deliver the benefits from open banking. open banking strengthens competition and promotes innovation by giving customers the right to control and share their banking data with accredited third parties. it can help customers have a ‘ top down ’ view of their financial position and manage their upcoming payments. it can also help to streamline the credit assessment processes and help consumers get a better deal. the banks are making progress with implementation, but some have not met the target dates. it is important that progress does not slip here, especially as the number of accredited data recipients continues to increase. the fourth area where it would be good to see further progress is the development of widely accepted digital identity services. when i spoke at this conference three years ago, i spoke about how the digital economy needs a strong form of digital identity. i did so because i was concerned that australia was slipping behind global best practice in this area. since then, two frameworks for interoperable digital identity services have been developed, but there has not been a large - scale rollout of a digital identity service that can be used for a wide range of online ( including private sector ) interactions. [ 1 ] so further progress on this front would be welcome. the final focus area i want to mention is cross - border