with monthly data likely similar to the favorable readings during the second half of last year. beyond that, i see inflation slowing more sharply next year, with housing - services inflation declining to reflect the past slowing in rents on new leases, core goods inflation remaining slightly negative, and inflation in core services excluding housing easing over time. labor market turning to the other side of our dual mandate, the labor market has largely returned to a better alignment between supply and demand. many indicators suggest the job market is roughly where it was before the pandemic - tight but not overheated. the unemployment rate was a still - low 4 percent in may, but it has gradually risen over the past year since touching a more than half - century low of 3. 4 percent in april 2023. last month's rate was also modestly above readings just before the pandemic took hold. layoffs remain low, and payroll growth has been solid so far this year, adding an average of 248, 000 jobs a month, essentially matching last year's pace. labor supply has expanded, partly reflecting a rise in immigration. labor force participation has broadly rebounded from pandemic lows, except for those aged 65 or older. women between the ages of 25 and 54 led the rebound, with their participation reaching 78. 1 percent in may, the highest ever recorded. with more workers entering the economy, the monthly job gains needed to keep the unemployment rate steady likely has risen from just under 100, 000 to nearly 200, 000. although these estimates are uncertain, such a breakeven pace may be a bit higher than the true pace of recent job gains, when 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches taking into account data from the quarterly census for employment and wages. these data suggest that payroll job gains were overstated last year and may continue to be so this year. thus, even the robust payroll numbers are consistent with a tight, but not overheating, labor market. signs of better balance in the labor market have come into focus. for example, the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment has fallen from a high of 2. 0 in mid - 2022 to 1. 2 in april, in line with its pre - pandemic level. workers are also less likely to leave their current jobs in search of new ones. the quits rate has fallen from 3. 0 percent in april 2022 to 2. 2 percent this april and is now below its 2019 average

securitization has helped firms manage the risk of a concentrated exposure by transferring some of that exposure outside of the firm, thereby diversifying the firm ’ s balance sheet. in the legal arena, with which you are familiar, substantial progress has been made in standardizing legal agreements used in managing financial risk. this has helped to resolve issues related to the impact of bankruptcy or insolvency on transactions and netting contracts, reducing the potential for contractual disputes between market participants. these efforts are continuing through various industry groups, and the legal profession is making important contributions to improving the legal certainty of these instruments. derivatives and other risk - transferring instruments have a salutary effect on the financial markets by facilitating more - liquid and more - efficient transfers of risk, creating the potential for greater economic efficiency through diversification benefits. innovation in financial risk management inevitably will continue. improvements in technology, the quick pace of financial innovation, and evolving risk management techniques almost ensure that businesses will increasingly use nearly limitless configurations of products and services and sophisticated financial structures. while i have pointed out the positive aspects of these developments, there is concern that investors and other stakeholders will find it increasingly difficult to understand the risk positions of large, complex organizations that use these mechanisms to alter risk exposures. the point - in - time measurement of a company ’ s balance sheet is insufficient to convey the full effects of credit - risktransfer instruments, such as credit derivatives and securitizations, on the firm ’ s risk profile. for example, moving assets off the balance sheet and into special - purpose entities in a securitization, with the attendant creation of servicing rights and high - risk residual interests retained by firms, generates its own risks and reduces transparency unless the firm takes additional steps to enhance disclosure. to address these concerns, firm managers need to do their part to ensure that public reporting and disclosures clearly identify all significant risk exposures - both on - and off - balance - sheet exposures and their effects on the company ’ s performance and future prospects, keeping in mind, of course, the need to safeguard proprietary information. an erm framework can produce information that supplements point - in - time accounting disclosures with a more robust description of the firm ’ s risks and the compensating returns in various lines of business as well as a description of how the risk / reward tradeoffs of these business lines affect the volatility of earnings for the firm as a whole. improved disclosure not only can