samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
##ing of the sources of growth of the spanish economy. thank you.

urchasing government bonds in secondary markets, the central bank absorbs part of that long - term risk, through what is called the duration extraction channel. this leaves less duration risk for private markets to absorb, so the term premium falls, driving down the long - term interest rate. third, there is the risk that a bond issuer will default on its future payment obligations, and investors demand a default premium to compensate them for this risk. as in the case of the term premium, central bank purchases shift this risk from private investors to the central bank, which reduces default premium and, therefore, yields – a channel called default risk extraction. all three of these asset purchase channels reduce long - term rates and thereby stimulate the economy. indeed, according to many empirical studies, the ecb's app made a significant contribution to boosting euro area economic activity and supporting the convergence of inflation to its aim. 6 the existing evidence also shows that in the case of pepp 7 - that was designed to permit flexibility in the allocation of purchases across jurisdictions, as well as a number o f academic studies have examined empirically the effects o f this unconventional po licy. for example, for the euro area, see gambetti and musso ( 2017 ), “ the macro eco nomic impact o f the ecb ’ s expanded asset purchase pro gramme ( app ) ”, ecb working paper no 2075. fo r the united states, see weale and wieladek ( 2016 ), “ what are the macro eco no mic effects o f asset purchases? ”, journal of monetary economics ( 79 ) : 81 - 93. and lastly, fo r the united kingdo m, see kapetanio s et al. ( 2012 ), “ assessing the eco no my - wide effects o f quantitative easing ”, the economic journal, vo l. 122, pp. 316 - 347. co stain, nuno and thomas ( 2022 ), “ the term structure o f interest rates in a hetero geneo us mo netary union ”, working paper no 2223, banco de espana. over time and across asset classes -, it played an additional role to reduce fragmentation within the euro area and thus ensure a smooth transmission of the single monetary policy. let me now turn to the tltros. in 2014 the ecb launched tltros. unlike the ( non - targeted ) longer - term refinancing operations ( lt
to enhance their ability to manage vast quantities of collateral that are integral to globalized modern finance. our goals should include not only global financial stability, but also the promotion of free flowing capital directed to its most productive uses throughout the world. that goal will bring about greater financial stability and a more prosperous future for all who choose to participate in the global economy.

of all consumer spending, has been on a general upward trajectory since mid - 2020. 4 elsewhere in the economy, growth has been less robust. residential investment has been fairly flat over the past three quarters, and growth of business fixed investment cooled last year from its strong 2023 pace. much of the equipment investment that did take place came from imports. indeed, domestic manufacturing industrial production was flat last year. overall, i see the economy as continuing to grow at a healthy pace this year, though i anticipate growth to be slightly lower than what we observed in 2024. households and firms face an uncertain environment, and that tends to lower consumer spending and business investment. if consumer spending continues to grow at the same pace as it has in the past two years, however, that could cause me to revise up my outlook for overall economic growth. see the december 2024 services ism report on business, which is available on the institute for supply management ’ s website at https : / / www. ismworld. org / supply - management - news - and - reports / reports / ismreport - on - business / services / december. - 4labor market turning to employment, i see the labor market as being in a solid position, with conditions broadly returning to balance after a period of being overheated. it ’ s helpful to step back and look at the labor market ’ s path over the past five years. looking at figure 3, you can see that the unemployment rate surged in early 2020, peaking at 14. 8 percent in april 2020, when the covid - 19 pandemic first took hold and a wide swath of the global economy was shutdown. the unemployment rate subsequently fell swiftly as the economy recovered. by april 2023, it touched 3. 4 percent, a half - century low. at that point, many employers reported that they were struggling to fill openings. then, over the latter part of 2023 and early 2024, the unemployment rate rose nearly a percentage point, an unusual pattern outside of a recession. as a policymaker, i took note of this rise when considering our dual - mandate objectives. now, i have also taken note that the unemployment rate has effectively held steady since the middle of last year. i view that as a sign that downside risks in the labor market have abated. the latest jobs report showed that the unemployment rate was 4. 1 percent in december, the same reading as in june
6 ( 33 ). woodford, michael ( 2012 ), inflation targeting and financial stability. economic review 2012 : 1, sveriges riksbank. bis central bankers ’ speeches

financial crisis, and to the period that followed. if monetary policy is very expansionary over a long period of time, it may contribute, despite being justified with regard to the prevailing economic situation, to the build - up of imbalances on the financial side of the economy – for instance, the formation of distorted expectations of how high interest rates will be in the future and of how the housing market will develop, and so on. in this type of environment monetary policy may need to support macroprudential policy, by contributing less to such imbalances building up in the first place. goodhart ( 2013 ) argues that so - called countercyclical measures will need to be introduced at a time when they are likely to be opposed by many politicians, most borrowers and lenders, and many, probably most, commentators in the press. he also doubts that the measures will be implemented with sufficient vigour and aggression to have any mitigating effect, as they would be operating against the prevailing trend of the financial market. this objection of course applies to all policy areas trying to counteract financial risks, including a monetary policy that leans against the wind. but while this objection is often made against monetary policy, it has so far only been discussed to a minor extent with regard to macroprudential policy. stein ( 2013 ). bis central bankers ’ speeches little acceptance for this view in the swedish debate to summarise : in my view, macroprudential policy should be the first line of defence against financial imbalances. 19 but it is possible, and even quite probable, that in some situations it may need support from monetary policy. and there is thus, at least as i understand it, good reason to extend the strategy for monetary policy and allow greater consideration to be given to financial imbalances than was the case prior to the financial crisis. one of the main arguments against this view in the swedish debate is that monetary policy in practice has little effect on the risks linked to financial imbalances. so the gain in leaning monetary policy against the wind is small in relation to the relatively large costs of such a policy in terms of inflation undershooting the target and negative effects on the real economy. ultimately, the size of the gains and the costs is an empirical question, as is the question about the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. but judging by the debate in sweden, both of these questions appear to have been decided already, and it would
round was held on financially inclusive government to persons ( g2p ) payments. banks, public sector institutions, microfinance institutions, government agencies, pension funds, and academic institutions were invited to apply for the promotion of financial inclusive g2p payments through bank accounts at branchless banking outlets and also provide other financial services to the g2p payments beneficiaries. a number of applications have been bis central bankers ’ speeches received from these institutions which are now being evaluated for the first round of g2p payments challenge. financial literacy has assumed greater importance in recent years and is now considered an important systemic area for promoting financial inclusion and ultimately financial stability. both developed and developing countries, therefore, are focusing on programs for financial literacy / education. sbp has started a pilot financial literacy program ( flp ) with the private sector as an implementing partner. the program is the first ever initiative to promote financial literacy among the general public at the national level. the dissemination will be made through tv channels, regional radio, print media and mobile network operators. in addition, field training and street theatres will also be used to target beneficiaries. the program will impart knowledge about basic financial concepts such as budgeting, savings, investments, debt management, financial products and branchless banking. the pilot phase will target about 50, 000 beneficiaries with emphasis on low income strata. after completion of the pilot, an impact assessment of the pilot will be conducted and based on the results and recommendation the program will be scaled to the national level. although these early successes in microfinance industry are laudable, they have yet to create a major dent in the widespread financial exclusion. currently, microcredit is reaching only 2 million borrowers whereas the size of the target market is estimated to be 25 to 30 million. while this high level of financial exclusion is somewhat disappointing, it does highlight the frontier of opportunities and bodes well for development of the microfinance industry to become a major participant within the overall financial sector while serving the millions of underserved and unbanked people. i, therefore, urge all stakeholders to step up their efforts in their area. as we know, pakistan has unfortunately faced an increased occurrence of natural calamities. in 2010 and 2011, floods and rains destroyed lives, properties, and businesses, particularly of those living in rural and peri - urban areas. the poor have also been adversely affected by volatility in food prices and fuel costs

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long road still to travel for fulfilling the promises we have made to the people of this country. what can ensure success in this challenging task of delivering meaningful financial inclusion is full commitment of the board and the senior management of the banks. bis central bankers ’ speeches

linah k mohohlo : liquidity conditions in botswana banks speech by ms linah k mohohlo, governor of the bank of botswana, at the press briefing on banks ’ liquidity condition, gaborone, 26 march 2015. * * * i welcome you to this press briefing, the purpose of which is to provide clarity on liquidity at commercial banks. this is in response to some recent articles in the local media which suggest that, among others, banks in botswana are in financial difficulties and their customers face a “ credit crunch ”. the bank of botswana welcomes informed reporting of topical banking / financial issues and, in this spirit, has endeavoured to provide timely and informative responses to questionnaires received on the matter. as you will be aware, i took advantage of the national business conference in maun in november last year and addressed the issue of commercial bank liquidity in some detail. given continued interest on the subject, we have considered that a further engagement with the media is advisable. i will share with you salient points on this important matter and respond to questions thereafter. i would like to underscore an important fact, and that is, the banking sector in botswana is sound and profitable. profitability has of course declined as expenses increased faster than income, and the situation varies from bank to bank. in the 12 months period to january 2015, the aggregate industry balance sheet grew healthily by 11 percent, with deposits growing by 7 percent and credit growing by 13 percent. a tightening of bank liquidity has been evident. what is key is that all banks continue to comply with the necessary requirements such as the statutory liquid asset requirements. recent economic and market developments have had no adverse impact on levels of capital in the banking industry, with the aggregate capital adequacy ratio at 19 percent as at january 2015, and above the prudential limit of 15 percent. in the past five years, excess liquidity in the banking system, as represented by outstanding bank of botswana certificates ( bobcs ), has declined from p17. 7 billion as at end - 2010 to p4. 6 billion in february 2015. the main cause was the bank of botswana ’ s phased reduction of the excess money that is continuously mopped by way of auctioning of bobcs. the cap for this excess money is currently p5 billion and it was put in place to encourage productive lending by banks as well as to moderate the cost of mopping up
forge a national consensus on reforms. investors have cited inadequate infrastructure, rigid regulations and bureaucracy as some of the impediments to india's rapid growth. in addition, india cannot grow into a major economy on services alone. it will have to find ways to expand its manufacturing sector to create jobs for the large numbers of young people entering the labour market each year. india has decided to use special economic zones ( sezs ) to spearhead the growth of its manufacturing and export sectors. sezs will create pockets of growth and prosperity. they will have a powerful demonstration effect on the rest of the economy. foreign investors will find it easier and more attractive to locate their factories in an sez. singapore and india have agreed to set up an sez in india and both sides are now working to implement it. china on the rise let me now turn to china. i first visited china in 1971 to do business with them. it was during the height of the cultural revolution. i saw young red guards holding their study sessions in the open. i visited a commune and listened to an old woman singing praises of chairman mao and the liberation. i have visited china regularly since then. i have seen china's transformation through the decades - not just the physical transformation but also the change in mindset and values of the people. pop songs have replaced revolutionary songs. gucci, armani and other luxury brands are worn instead of mao jackets. the communes have given way to industrial parks, like the suzhou industrial park, an integrated township which singapore helped build. and golf has become popular in china. most analysts project china to continue to grow by 8 % per year over the next 10 years. i share this optimism. however, we should not underestimate the immense challenges before china. the chinese leaders certainly do not. premier wen jiabao once explained to me the magnitude of china's problems through the concept of " division and multiplication ". he said that china's resources become very small when divided by 1. 3 billion people, while a small problem becomes huge when multiplied by 1. 3 billion. despite the tremendous changes, china is still underdeveloped and suffers from great imbalances in its development. beijing's top priority now is to spread the fruits of development more widely. the government recognises the risks for the country if growth in the coastal provinces is not spread to the inland provinces. i believe that chinese leaders have the capability and the will to

the institute of international finance ( iif ) to hold this meeting in singapore, a gateway to access asia. i hope that the next few days will provide all of you with fresh insights into asia and singapore. thank you.
( ifs ) and trustee of imperial college london. now, let me give the floor to our keynote speaker, ms. rachel lomax. after her speech we will proceed with the first panel – global markets volatility and potential risks for romania. thank you! 2 / 2 bis central bankers'speeches

mugur isrescu : opening remarks – the international 2023 ermas conference welcome address by mr mugur isrescu, governor of the national bank of romania, at the ninth edition of the annual scientific conference of the romanian academic economists from abroad, the 2023 ermas conference, organised in partnership with the bucharest university of economic studies, babe – bolyai university cluj - napoca and ermas association, bucharest, 26 july 2023. * * * distinguished audience, ladies and gentlemen, it is my pleasure to wish you the warmest welcome at the national bank of romania, for the ninth edition of the annual scientific conference of the romanian academic economists from abroad – the ermas conference. on behalf of the board of the national bank of romania, i wish to congratulate the scientific committee for their professionalism and the remarkable program they have put together. allow me to extend our greetings to all our partners and their contribution to organizing this top event in academia. i recall with great pleasure the first edition of the ermas conference back in 2014 when i had the honor to be a keynote speaker. i remember the excellent quality of the ideas and of the papers presented. we meet again today for the ninth edition, jointly organized by the national bank of romania and the bucharest university of economic studies. over the last ten years, the ermas conference has become the flagship of the economics academic conferences in romania with the constant support of the babebolyai university and, starting 2019, of the ermas association. universities from iai, sibiu, timioara and for the current edition, the bucharest university of economic studies have also been supporting this initiative ; and of course, your constant and impressive support as contributors to each edition of the conference with high quality research papers. i do believe that our partnership with the academia is based on a longstanding tradition, as a pillar for progress and public policy development in romania. back in 2014, i encouraged you to dedicate some of your research to specific problems of the romanian economy and society, to participate in public debates on relevant economic topics, to collaborate with the local academic environment, as well as with the institutions in charge of implementing economic policies. many of you did so. the activity of the ermas association, the common projects some of you have developed in close collaboration with my colleagues from the national bank of romania, as well as your partnership with domestic universities are excellent examples and i encourage you to continue. ladies and
be another chapter of success, insya allah. on that note, i thank you again for being here to witness the launching of the labuan international business and financial centre. thank you.

##ts over the last year is now very closely in line with the change in us and german 10 year bonds ( chart 7 ). having peaked at 4. 6 % in late september yields on 10 year gilts were back down at 3. 2 % at close yesterday, their level at the start of september. source : bloomberg l. p., and bank calculations notes : the path for bank rate implied by forward market interest rates are based on overnight index swap rates. latest yield curve refers to forward market interest rates at cob 21 november 2021. uk fiscal policy developments in response to the energy price shock have been a key contributor to the outlook for inflation. in early september the government announced an energy price guarantee ( epg ) for households ( and a business equivalent ) to cap average energy bills at £2500 up until april 2023. in the autumn statement on 17 november, the government announced an increase in the cap to £3000 for the year to april 2024. energy see https : / / committees. parliament. uk / publications / 30347 / documents / 175455 / default / and https : / / committees. parliament. uk / publications / 30347 / documents / 175455 / default / bank of england prices would otherwise have been significantly higher and more volatile given expected wholesale gas prices, as embodied in the futures curve. the autumn statement extension of the epg looks broadly consistent with the working assumption that the mpc made in the november mpr forecast. overall as set out in the november mpc, the epg provides much more certainty about the near term path for inflation, reducing the peak in cpi inflation by more than 2 per cent and bringing it forward to q4. the epg and the accompanying more targeted measures also provide more support for household incomes and demand and therefore more upwards pressure on inflation in the medium - term. the autumn statement also included a number of measures that will significantly tighten the fiscal position in the medium - term pushing down on activity and inflation. however, the vast majority of these measures do not come into effect until april 2025 so will have very little effect over the mpc ’ s three - year forecast horizon, relative to what was assumed in the november mpc. the mpc will be able to take full account of the autumn statement in its december policy round, and its february forecast. however, given the ongoing uncertainties, global and uk markets remain febrile and sensitive to economic and financial developments. those putting a forecast together
( dodd - frank act ), the federal reserve has been working with the federal deposit insurance corporation ( fdic ) to improve resolution planning by banks. through thoughtful resolution planning, firms can reduce the risk that their failure would have disruptive effects on the financial system and the economy. the resolution planning process has caused the largest u. s. banking firms to substantially improve their internal structures, governance, information collection systems, and allocation of capital and liquidity in ways that both promote resolvability. the federal reserve also has helped improve the resolvability of the largest banking firms by requiring u. s. g - sibs and the u. s. intermediate holding companies of foreign g - sibs to meet long - term debt and total loss absorbing capacity ( tlac ) requirements. effect of regulation on u. s. banks evidence overwhelmingly shows that financial crises can cause severe and lasting damage to the economy ’ s productive capacity and growth potential. 1 post - crisis reforms to financial sector regulation and supervision have been designed to significantly reduce the likelihood and severity of future financial crises. we have sought to accomplish this goal in significant part by reducing both the probability of failure of a large banking firm and the consequences of such a failure were it to occur. we have substantially increased the capital, liquidity, and other prudential requirements for large banking firms, and these increases are not free. stronger capital requirements increase bank costs, and at least some of those costs are passed along to bank customers. but in the longer term, stronger prudential requirements for large banking firms will produce more sustainable credit availability and economic growth. our objective should be to set capital and other prudential requirements for large banking firms at a level that protects financial stability and maximizes long - term, through - the - cycle credit availability and economic growth. guiding principles to simplify and reduce regulatory burden as we near completion of the major post - crisis regulatory reforms, this is a good time to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these reforms. several principles are guiding us in this effort. 2 / 5 bis central bankers'speeches first, we should protect the core elements of the reforms for our largest banking firms in capital regulation, stress testing, liquidity regulation, and resolvability. second, we should continue to tailor our requirements to the size, risk, and complexity of the firms subject to those requirements. in particular, we should always be aware that community banks face higher costs to meet complex requirements. third

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