african americans. we expect the new talf agents to begin operation in november. in the area of procurement, the federal reserve uses various methods to reach women - and minority - owned contractors. we hold vendor fairs in washington to publicize opportunities. for example, on september 2, representatives of approximately 60 companies talked to board staff about contracting possibilities. we are a member of the national minority supplier development council, and we regularly attend national and local vendor fairs and conferences ( including several this year ) to share information on how to do business with the board. our procurement staff works with board operating divisions in all phases of the contracting process. in addition, our procurement policies require that nearly all contracts include a subcontracting plan that describes the vendor's commitment to provide small and / or minority - and women - owned companies the maximum practicable opportunity to participate in contract performance. the board's chief acquisition officer oversees compliance with the board's procurement policies and procedures, working with staff responsible for outreach to women - and minority - owned companies. finally, i would also like to mention briefly the partnership for progress, a federal reserve initiative launched last year in recognition of the importance of healthy minority - owned depository institutions to many communities in this country. this initiative supports minorityowned depository institutions through outreach and technical assistance and by training examiners to better understand some of the unique challenges faced by minority - owned institutions. the federal reserve system remains committed to diversity and inclusion in our programs and activities, and i appreciate the opportunity to have this dialogue. again, thank you for inviting me today.

benefits are slated to expire over the summer, and i hope that a fuller reopening of schools in the fall will ease the pressure on parents. the spike in retirements may well moderate in a stronger economy, as we saw in the year or two before the pandemic. so, while labor shortages could weigh on job creation in coming months, i don ’ t yet perceive this development as significantly slowing the u. s. economy beyond the next few months. now let ’ s turn to the other half of the federal reserve ’ s economic goals, inflation. as i mentioned last week during congressional testimony, i agree with the widespread view among my 2 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches colleagues on the federal open market committee ( fomc ) and most private forecasters that the recent rise in inflation to well above 2 percent is driven by temporary factors. i expect inflation to begin subsiding at some point over the next several months and to be running close to 2 percent again at some point during 2022. market - implied inflation expectations have risen only to the levels that prevailed in the early 2010s, after which inflation never ran consistently above 2 percent, and most survey measures are sending similar signals. therefore, i consider these recent increases in inflation expectations a welcome development, reversing the large declines seen last spring and perhaps edging up in response to the message in the fomc ’ s new policy framework. that said, my optimistic outlook for growth and employment places me among those who see the risks to inflation over the medium term as weighted to the upside, relative to my baseline forecast. broadly speaking, there are three reasons for this. first, there are wage pressures. a moment ago, i celebrated the upturn in wages in april, but it may be a sign that the torrid growth of the economy and labor supply shortages have begun pushing up wages faster than occurred with the moderate economic growth over much of the past decade. wages are a large component of business costs that could pass through to prices more readily than increases in the cost of other inputs. it seems like a paradox that there could be labor supply problems and wage pressures at 6 percent unemployment, but it is also a fact. some of this surprising outcome reflects temporarily lower labor force participation coming out of the enormous economic shock last spring, but some of the fed ’ s business contacts have said that shortages of skilled laborers — particularly in manufacturing, transportation, and construction — predated covid - 19 and are