in one scene hanuman is captured by ravan ’ s minions and his tail is set on fire by covering it with oil and cloth. hanumanji started growing his tail until his captors had run out of oil and cloth, while they were frantically trying to get more cloth, hanuman employed the opposite tactic and shrunk his size, and released himself from his chains. he then flew off and with his tail still burning used it to set fire to ravan ’ s city of lanka, thereby reducing it to ash. this is just one example of how lord hanuman used ingenuity to fulfill his mission and serve lord rama. so what does this have to do with strength and stability and the central bank? i mentioned earlier the ramayana is a great hindu epic ; there are twists and turns, villains and heroes. the financial crisis this country experienced five years ago can be described as epic as well. there have been villains who through greed and avarice took what was not theirs to take, just like ravan took sita. unlike ravan, however, some of our own local demons are yet to get what they deserve and to be brought to justice. bis central bankers ’ speeches the central bank is the silent servant of the people of this country, doing what it takes, putting creative, new measures in place, to move our country onto a better financial path. like hanuman was willing to serve lord rama with unwavering devotion, so too the central bank is devoted to ensuring financial stability for all our citizens in trinidad and tobago. whether we are undertaking new approaches to supervision of the financial system, or putting in place new financial legislation, the central bank, like hanuman, is prepared to be strategic and creative in securing victory over the financial difficulties raging around us. we will not be fatigued in this quest, and in our mission to bring the financial rakhshas ( demons ) to justice. ladies and gentlemen, we often sell our country as multicultural, but while it sounds nice to say, how much do we really do to celebrate our cultural diversity. as an independent national institution, i firmly believe that the central bank must celebrate all of our culture and all of our people ’ s talents. it is for this reason, for the first time in its forty nine - year history, the central bank supported ramleela this year. ramleela is considered the oldest and largest open air theatre in the caribbean. it provides an opportunity for people to

depend on those in overseas economies. using the outlook for overseas economies i mentioned earlier as an assumption basis, japanese economic activity is expected to be more or less flat for the time being. exports and production are likely to remain relatively weak for the time being, and domestic demand as a whole is unlikely to increase at a pace that will outperform the weakness in exports. under such circumstances, the bank decided to undertake further aggressive monetary easing at the monetary policy meeting on october 30. as for the outlook for economic activity after incorporating the effects of such monetary easing and those of the government ’ s efforts to invigorate the growth potential, the economy, which will be more or less flat for the time being, is expected to return to a moderate recovery path in due course. expressing this in numerical terms, the median of the bank ’ s nine policy board members ’ forecasts for the annualized growth rate is 1. 5 percent, 1. 6 percent, and 0. 6 percent for fiscal 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively ( chart 5 ). reflected in these figures, however, are the effects of the front - loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to the consumption tax hike, and adjustment of such effects brings the median of the forecasts to 1. 0 – 1. 5 percent for both fiscal 2013 and 2014. the output gap is therefore expected to improve steadily, given that these forecast figures exceed the potential growth rate, which appears to be around 0. 5 percent. this naturally affects price developments as well. the year - on - year rate of change in the consumer price index ( cpi ) for all items less fresh food is currently around 0 percent. it is expected to hover around that level for the time being, but will start rising gradually thereafter as the output gap that i just mentioned narrows. in terms of the median of the policy board members ’ forecasts, figures for fiscal 2012 and 2013 are – 0. 1 percent and 0. 4 percent, respectively, and 0. 8 percent for fiscal 2014 excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike ( chart 6 ). the bank publishes, in a numerical form, “ the price stability goal in the medium to long term, ” which is the inflation rate that it aims to achieve in conducting monetary policy. in concrete terms, the bank judges “ the price stability goal in the medium to long term ” to be in a positive range of 2 percent or lower in terms of the year - on - year rate of