raging across the atlantic. though gdp growth slowed over the course of last year, output in 2001 was still 2. 4 % higher than a year earlier, close to trend growth. underlying this relatively benign aggregate picture, there are of course some quite marked differences : on the expenditure side, between growth in consumption, which has surged ahead, and growth in investment, which has been strikingly depressed ; and, on the output side, between the fortunes of firms in manufacturing, which have borne the brunt of the global slowdown, and those of firms in the more sheltered services sector. these differences are sometimes referred to as'imbalances ', and it is certainly true that we can neither expect ( nor wish ) for them to persist over the long run. the shake - out in manufacturing has been particularly severe, as you know here only too well. manufacturing output in northern ireland fell by some 4. 6 % in the year to last autumn, compared with a fall of 3. 5 % in the uk as a whole. but not all of the sectoral differences that have emerged are necessarily unwelcome. indeed, for those seeking to ensure stability in the economy as a whole, it is really just as well that consumption growth has remained robust at a time when the net trade position of the economy has worsened so markedly. and, as recent mpc minutes show, that has been our intention. so long as the world economy recovers quickly enough to pick up the slack as consumption slows, it may be that we in the uk will avoid the sharp recessions of previous cycles. of course, this is a big'if ', and i do not want to imply that i am excessively confident that this will occur. rapid consumption growth brings with it considerable risks, not least when it is financed by a large build up in consumer debt. but it is the mpc's central expectation that we will escape a serious slowdown at current interest rates. in the last few weeks, we have seen some tentative signs of an unwinding of some of the more severe sectoral gaps in the economy, with the slowdown in retail sales growth since the start of the year, and an encouraging pickup in a number of surveys of business confidence and investment intentions. overall, it seems to me that the risks around the outlook for uk inflation are fairly evenly balanced. on the downside, the speed of the recovery in the world economy may be held back by a number of

are an essential component of maintaining financial stability in the wider sense. public confidence in financial statements and the role of auditors is critical. one set of issues relates to the appropriateness of accounting rules governing the treatment of special purpose vehicles and those relating to revenue recognition. this is a technical area, and one in which the rules applied in the us and the uk are relevantly different. no doubt the appropriate professional bodies will be looking at these questions. another set of issues relates to rules and practice governing the appointment of auditors, and the extent and nature of non - audit work carried out by firms'auditors. best practice in listed companies has for some time recognised the importance of rotating individual auditors. but the relationship between a major listed company and its auditor goes well beyond the role of the senior day - to - day audit partner. before coming to the bank of england, i had been involved with companies where the audit partner had rotated ; but the senior partner of the firm, who took a close interest in the relationship, of course had not. if the profession believes that rotation is important to maintain independence, should that rotation not relate to the firm, with whom the relationship is, rather than any individual? there are of course good arguments on the other side, and it will be interesting to see where the review of these and related matters, recently announced by patricia hewitt, comes out. conclusion ladies and gentlemen, it has been a pleasure for me to come to northern ireland, to meet with a number of business people during the course of this visit, and to join you this evening. can i take this opportunity to wish you, and the business communities you serve, all success for the future.