tiff macklem : managing risks in the new global economic landscape remarks by mr tiff macklem, senior deputy governor of the bank of canada, at the national insurance conference of canada, vancouver, british columbia, 27 september 2011. * * * it is a great pleasure to be speaking here in vancouver at the annual national insurance conference of canada. few industries know more about the personal, economic and financial impacts of disasters – or “ extreme events ” as insurance experts like to call them. and few know more about risk management. today i want to talk about both topics – an extreme event and private and public risk management in its wake. this morning you discussed earthquake insurance. earthquakes, like other natural disasters – tsunamis, hurricanes and ice storms come to mind – are entirely exogenous, extreme events – acts of god, if you will. they are not preventable, although their impact can be reduced by building resilience and by timely and effective disaster response. your industry, of course, plays a vital role in helping households and businesses to mitigate the consequences of natural disasters. other extreme events are endogenous – or manmade. the recent financial crisis falls into this category. the crisis that began in august 2007 and exploded in the autumn of 2008 was self - inflicted. the financial system was fragile and it failed. we are still paying. we will be paying for many years to come. the global recession that followed the financial crisis was the deepest since the great depression. and today, we are two years into what is shaping up to be the weakest recovery since the great depression. this is the new economic and financial landscape we find ourselves in. and while it may be less than we desire, it should not be terribly surprising. the lesson from history is that the recessions that follow financial crises are bigger than normal recessions. on average, the loss in output in a recession after a financial crisis is two to three times the loss in a normal recession. output falls further in a recession after a financial crisis. normally, the deeper the recession, the sharper the recovery. not so with the recoveries after financial crises. recoveries after a financial crisis are slower. typically, it takes output twice as long to return to its pre - recession level after a financial crisis than in a normal recovery, and output is permanently lower compared with its pre - crisis growth trajectory. the essential reason for this is that the legacy of a financial crisis is a lot of debt,

david dodge : summary of the latest monetary policy report opening statement by mr david dodge, governor of the bank of canada, to the senate banking, trade and commerce committee, ottawa, ontario, 25 october 2006. * * * good afternoon, mr. chairman and members of the committee. we appreciate the opportunity to meet with this committee twice a year, following the release of our monetary policy reports. these meetings help us keep senators and all canadians informed about the bank's views on the economy, and about the objective of monetary policy and the actions we take to achieve it. when paul and i appeared before this committee last may, shortly after the release of our spring monetary policy report, we noted that the global economy had shown a little more momentum than had been anticipated : oil prices at that time were higher than previously assumed and metals prices had risen significantly. at that point, we were anticipating economic growth of about 3. 1 per cent this year, 3. 0 per cent in 2007, and 2. 9 per cent in 2008. things have changed somewhat since then. while global economic growth is expected to be a little higher than anticipated last spring, a weaker near - term outlook for the u. s. economy has curbed the near - term prospects for canadian exports and growth. the bank's outlook for growth in the canadian economy has been revised down slightly from the outlook in last april's monetary policy report and the july update of that report. the bank's base - case projection now calls for average annual gdp growth of 2. 8 per cent in 2006, 2. 5 per cent in 2007, and a return to 2. 8 per cent in 2008. weakness in labour productivity growth has led the bank to lower its assumption for potential growth to 2. 8 per cent for the 2006 - 08 period. together, these factors imply that the small amount of excess demand now in the economy will be eliminated by mid - 2007. core inflation is expected to remain a bit above 2 per cent in the coming months but return to the 2 per cent target by the middle of 2007 and remain there through to the end of 2008. lower energy prices have led to a downward revision of the near - term projection for total cpi inflation. total inflation ( which includes the temporary impact of the gst reduction ) will likely average about 1 1 / 2 per cent through the second quarter of 2007 before returning to the 2 per cent target and remaining there through to the end of 2008. as we noted at