to the same extent as in 2015, on these expansionary factors. the mix of stimuli, both from demand - side policies ( monetary policy and fiscal policy ) and from the fall in oil prices since 2014, is going to have less of an impact on growth. fiscal policy will have to be restrictive again until the process of fiscal consolidation is complete. and, as to the exchange rate of the euro, the most prudent assumption would be that it will not be a significant additional stimulus but rather approximately neutral, at least during 2016. on the international front, global and european gdp growth forecasts have been revised downwards in recent months. to mention what appear to have been the most important factors, this has been due to the decline in activity in some of the main emerging economies and to the sluggishness of world trade. bis central bankers ’ speeches as a result, for this year and for next year too, we should expect more moderate growth in the spanish economy than in 2015. indeed, the latest projections published by the banco de espana and by various analysts and international institutions are along these lines, with gdp growth rates of 2. 7 % in 2016 and 2. 3 % in 2017. this lower growth will come about when we are still far from having sufficiently corrected the serious imbalances that built up in the expansion and in the early years of the crisis. these may be listed under four headings : the labour market ; fiscal consolidation and public debt ; private debt and dependence on external funding ; and productivity. let us look more closely at each of these four aspects. 1. the reduction in unemployment firstly, unemployment. the main challenge facing the spanish economy is to reduce the unemployment rate, which stood at the end of last year at almost 21 %, 6 pp down from its peak at the start of 2013, but still far above the average for the european union and the level in almost every other euro area country. but the problem is not just the high volume of unemployment ; it is also the high proportion of long - term unemployment ( defined as the number of people out of work for over a year ). our rate of long - term unemployment has scarcely dipped from its 2014 peak, which means that it is currently three times as high as in 2008. if we only consider persons unemployed for over two years, the rate has increased by 44 % in 2015, to four times the level in 2008. these levels of unemployment and long - term unemployment indicate the difficulty our economy has

. this spills over into consumption and investment, and finally into economic growth. this mechanism is also known as the “ financial accelerator ” a final monetary policy transmission channel involving banks i wish to allude to is the risktaking channel. low interest rates and abundant liquidity may decrease risk aversion and encourage risky investments, as well as leading to laxer credit standards. this raises the supply of bank loans and can have a significant impact on credit growth. the evolution of credit volumes so much for the theoretical background. let me now move on to how corporate credit volumes have actually evolved in luxembourg, and how those developments tie in with those at the euro area level. my intention is not to identify the workings of the different monetary policy transmission channels in luxembourg – this would be a herculean undertaking! however, it is helpful to keep the theoretical underpinnings in mind when looking at the actual credit developments and the potential underlying explanatory factors. as you can see in the chart, the underlying trend developments in luxembourg and at the euro area level coincide, despite the higher volatility in the luxembourg data. most notably, corporate credit dynamics rose continuously up until 2008, when they began to unwind rather rapidly, first in the euro area at large and shortly thereafter also in luxembourg. the pace and magnitude of the decline in the loan dynamics are particularly worrying, with below or near zero growth rates in the third quarter 2009. it is worth emphasising that roughly one year ago, in september 2008, the annual progression of corporate loan volumes in luxembourg peaked at 54 %! as for credit to households, the annual progression of mortgage lending has been on a downward trend since 2006, long before the crisis. however, this downward trend accelerated considerably and the annual growth rate recently stabilised just under 6 %. consumer credit has been progressing steadily since 2008, which represents a trend inversion compared to the preceding years. all in all, household loan dynamics have been much more benign than corporate credit developments. this raises the question as to how and why the corporate credit cycle could take such a rapid u - turn. while the obvious answer is that banks refuse to grant loans in the wake of the financial crisis, this is but one side of the coin. disentangling demand and supply indeed, the bank lending survey or bls – a euro area - wide bank survey on quarterly credit developments – strongly indicates that the sharp slowdown in corporate credit expansion is owing to both supply - and demand -