last report remains in force. although private forecasts already recognize that the worst is over, it is still too soon to say that the work is complete. output gaps are wide and we face the challenge of bringing inflation back to the target. markets are incorporating a faster withdrawal of the monetary stimulus than the bank considers appropriate for the purposes of meeting the inflation target. particularly now that, as in the rest of the world, fiscal policy is entering a consolidation phase, monetary policy will have to continue providing the necessary stimulus to the economy for a prolonged period of time. this, in order for the recovery of output and the normalization of inflationary expectations to be well entrenched. one lesson from past crises is that a premature withdrawal can be very costly and can lead to subsequent policy reversals. thank you very much. figure 1 commodity prices ( * ) ( index, january 2000 = 100 ) grains and cereals energy metals ( * ) by the goldman sachs commodity index ( gsci ). source : bloomberg. figure 2 cpi monthly inflation ( percentage ) 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 - 1. 5 jan. feb. mar. apr. 2001 - 2006 average may jun. jul. aug. sep. oct. nov. dec. source : national statistics bureau ( ine ). figure 3 accumulated cpi variation by country ( percentage ) japan south africa turkey chile indonesia colombia hungary peru brazil czech rep. malaysia israel mexico south korea norway usa thailand poland uk sweden eurozone switzerland canada hong kong usa eurozone hong kong switzerland malaysia chile japan ( a ) between january 2007 and october 2008. - 4 - 2 south africa hungary mexico brazil poland colombia israel turkey indonesia south korea sweden uk norway peru thailand canada czech rep. ( b ) between october 2008 and september 2009 ( * ) ( * ) for hong kong, japan, malaysia and south africa, data at august 2009. sources : statistics bureaus of each country and bloomberg. figure 4 world growth forecasts ( annual change, percentage ) 3. 0 2. 5 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 - 1 0. 5 - 2 - 3 0. 0 may sep. may ( a ) forecasts for 2009 sep. mar. may jul. sep. ( b ) forecasts for 2010 source : consensus forecasts. figure 5 monetary policy rate ( mpr ) mpr change mpr level ( basis points ) japan turkey usa chile canada colombia switzerland new

zealand sweden peru chile south africa hong kong norway uk uk israel india eurozone brazil peru sweden czech rep. mexico norway australia south korea israel malaysia iceland new zealand south korea australia eurozone poland hong kong colombia indonesia philippines canada mexico poland india switzerland china czech rep. indonesia china turkey philippines south africa usa hungary hungary brazil malaysia argentina russia russia japan iceland argentina - 1, 000 ( percentage ) - 800 - 600 - 400 - 200 at 19 oct. 2009 between 4 sep. 2008 and 19 oct. 2009 source : bloomberg. figure 6 interest rates in pesos and dollars in the local market ( percentage ) jan. 08 apr. 08 jul. 08 oct. 08 stock exchange - 90 days jan. 09 apr. 09 jul. 09 oct. 09 libor + 90 - day on - shore spread sources : bloomberg and central bank of chile. table 1 monetary policy rate and expectations according to ees ( percentage ) actual level expected for expected 2 same month months ahead expected for dec. 09 oct. 2008 8. 25 8. 50 8. 50 7. 00 dec. 2008 8. 25 8. 25 7. 75 6. 25 feb. 2009 4. 75 6. 25 5. 00 4. 00 nov. 2008 8. 25 jan. 2009 8. 25 7. 25 mar. 2009 8. 25 7. 50 2. 25 6. 75 3. 13 2. 50 6. 63 5. 50 2. 00 source : economic expectations survey ( ees ), central bank of chile. figure 7 foreign credit flows to residents ( billions of dollars ) 3. 0 3. 0 2. 5 2. 5 2. 0 2. 0 1. 5 1. 5 1. 0 1. 0 0. 5 0. 5 0. 0 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 - 1. 0 - 1. 5 - 1. 5 - 2. 0 jan. 07 jul. 07 jan. 08 new credits to banks jul. 08 jan. 09 - 2. 0 jul. 09 new credits to non - banks net flow ( * ) ( * ) discounting bank and non - bank amortizations from total new credits. source : central bank of chile. figure 8 world growth ( annual change, percentage ) - 3 - 6 - 9 - 12 world at market exchange rate - 3 - 6 - 9 - 12 chile ( 1 ) gray area shows projections as from 2009. ( 2 ) figures for growth in 2009 and 2010 stand for