‘ extinction is forever ’. there was a background trend of increased school retention, but it ’ s amazing how that effect was so concentrated in recessions and their aftermath. there ’ s a gender angle here, too, because the effect is starker for males than females. it isn ’ t entirely clear why that is, but it might have had something to do with decisions to employ apprentices. 1 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches structural, or perhaps we should say ‘ non - economic ’, factors can also have profound implications for economic outcomes. on the demographic side, we are seeing the effects of an ageing population, driven partly by increasing longevity, and partly by the end of the post - war baby boom and the ageing of the generation born in that boom. the end of the baby boom also saw an increase in the average age that people partnered and became parents ( graph 2 ). the post - war period was the anomaly here. the current median age of first parenting is only a little above where it was a century ago. if we look at western european countries, it turns out that partnering and parenting in one ’ s mid - to - late twenties has been the norm for several centuries there. 1 2 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches on the social side, we see the long - lasting effects of the integration – or perhaps we should say the reintegration after the post - war period – of women into the labour force. female labour force participation and employment has increased by around 15 percentage points since the mid 1970s, though it has levelled out more recently and is still noticeably lower than for males ( graph 3 ). 3 / 14 bis central bankers'speeches social and demographic changes are mediated through and in turn affect institutional arrangements. australia ’ s unusual wage - setting system, starting from the 1907 harvester judgement until the 1990s, was centred on a judicial process. the social presumption behind that process ( until at least the late 1960s ) was that men had a family to support, while women did not. ( this led to much commentary about the number of non - existent wives and children being supported on men ’ s wages. ) unequal pay was therefore enforced by that process until the equal pay decisions of 1969 ( equal pay for equal work ) and 1972 ( equal pay for work of equal value ). it is common to assume that if wages are lifted by the powers of the state, rather than by the forces of supply and demand, employment of

mr. macfarlane reviews monetary policy, growth and unemployment in australia talk by the governor of the reserve bank of australia, mr. i. j. macfarlane, to the australia - israel chamber of commerce in melbourne on 15 / 5 / 97. it is a pleasure to be here in melbourne, and to be speaking to the australia - israel chamber of commerce. i was very pleased to be invited to address this distinguished group so soon after i was appointed. if at the end of this address, you feel that i have still left some important questions unanswered, my suggestion is that your next guest be my opposite number from israel. jacob frenkel, the governor of the bank of israel, is a distinguished economist, but a very busy man. my invitations to him to visit australia have so far been unsuccessful - perhaps this chamber can swing the balance. i want to take this opportunity today to talk about the economy, monetary policy, and some aspects of unemployment. i propose to do this by looking over a longer period than normal. most economic commentary concentrates on very current events and focuses on the latest monthly or quarterly economic statistics. this is an inevitable result of the news - gathering process and the need for financial markets to reassess after each new piece of information. in this environment, the outlook for the year ahead is considered a long time. in my view, even that is too short - for monetary policy purposes, we should be looking at a period as long as an economic expansion. that may not be a lot of immediate help to most people because they would be unsure of what time span was encompassed by an economic expansion. as a point of reference, the last two expansions have lasted for about six - and - a - half years, but i think we can do a lot better on this occasion. lengthening the expansion the current expansion in australia has been going on for about 5½ years, which is similar to the united states, the united kingdom and new zealand, and a fair bit longer than for countries in continental europe or japan. table 1 shows that over that period we have grown at an annual rate of 3½ per cent and had inflation of 2½ per cent. our growth rate has been higher than nearly all oecd countries, although not as strong as for the countries of east asia. our inflation rate is also very good and close to the average for oecd countries. the results are pretty good by international standards, particularly since there