start saving up now for the higher future tax payments? this is a central question in economic policy, but we ’ re basically without a clue when it comes to finding out what applies. constant focus on the relevance of the statistics released is a challenge for the producers of statistics. there will always be demand for more statistics, but then reality and budget constraints kick in. consequently, it may be necessary to cut down on some statistical areas in order to increase focus on other and more relevant statistics. it is quite a challenge to become constantly better at optimising the use of the available data sources. a case in point is the challenges of registering the growing output in the services sector in a modern economy and capturing internet activity. statistics must be accurate and preferably timely in order to be useful. crises, especially financial crises, often erupt suddenly and sometimes surprisingly. this is a great challenge for economic statistics as they are only available with a certain lag. moreover, the crisis we have just been through was way out on the periphery of the probability distribution. we have not seen the financial markets react as dramatically and globally over the last 60 years as they did during the most recent financial crisis. this undermines the belief that we could have predicted the crisis if only we had had more statistics. for an unprecedented situation it is, of course, no use analysing historical data, believing that you can predict the crisis. the problem was more likely our failure to understand fully the available data. we must become better at understanding the interplay between the financial and real sides of the economy. a lot of research seeks to incorporate the financial sector into theoretical models of the real economy. and we have a long way to go in this area as well. consequently, there is no risk that statisticians will be out of a job right away! thank you for your attention.

jens thomsen : brief overview of the danish economy statement by mr jens thomsen, member of the board of governors of the national bank of denmark, at the meeting of the danish economic council, copenhagen, 27 may 2004. * * * it now seems probable that the danish economy reached a trough in the autumn of 2003 and that an upswing has set in ; an upswing which has not been acknowledged until now, near the middle of 2004. the upswing has primarily been reflected in private consumption, but in addition unemployment has been falling slightly since the turn of the year. naturally, the final impact on unemployment is difficult to predict since unemployment typically reacts with a considerable and varying lag. unlike most other western european countries, denmark has a relatively low unemployment rate, and a strong upswing could lead to overheating. the greatest risk would be if a substantial economic upswing materialised in our neighbouring countries, but there are no indications of this. germany, in particular, is having difficulties boosting its economy. a positive aspect is that growth in the 10 new eu member states is above four per cent, although they account for only four per cent of denmark ’ s exports. in the short term it would seem that only a domestically driven consumption boom with a substantial increase in the consumption ratio could lead to overheating. the consumption ratio is currently low, and the wealth ratio is high. consequently, a marked consumption effect cannot be ruled out. the reversal of the danish economy emphasises how difficult it is to finetune the economy by means of fiscal policy. our knowledge is incomplete. it takes time to prepare fiscal - policy measures, and it takes time before they have an impact on unemployment. such measures can easily have a disruptive effect on the economy when the underlying cyclical factors are uncer - tain and changing. “ in practice there is a genuine risk that attempts to conduct active stabilisation policy will in themselves lead to cyclical fluctuations ”, cf. the former economic advisor torben andersen in udviklingslinier i økonomisk teori - trends in economic theory - ( 2000, ed. chr. hjorth - andersen ). if fiscal policy is eased, it must also be tightened at a later stage ; otherwise it will not be possible to maintain the long - term targets for the development in public finances. the reflections on the sustainability of public finances in the consultation paper emphasise this need for subsequent fiscal - policy adjustment. in