michael held : keynote remarks at union of arab banks ’ anticorruption conference keynote remarks ( delivered via video conference ) by mr michael held, executive vice president and general counsel of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the union of arab banks'conference on anti - bribery corruption, the sixth european union anti - money laundering directive, and the anti - money laundering act of 2020, 3 february 2022. * * * as prepared for delivery it is a pleasure to be with you virtually for this important conference. i am thrilled to be able to share a digital stage with my distinguished colleagues – liz rosenberg, the assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes at the u. s. treasury department, and dr. fahad ibrahim alshathri, the deputy governor for supervision at the saudi central bank. i also want to thank my friend wissam fattouh and the union of arab banks for the invitation to be part of this timely event. before i start my remarks, i want you to know that the comments are my own and may not necessarily represent the views of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system. like my colleagues and our respective institutions, i have serious concerns about corruption, kleptocracy and international bribery schemes. the federal reserve system supports the u. s. government ’ s actions to limit those activities through prosecutions and sanctions. the federal reserve regulates many of the large financial institutions that process cross border transactions ; and our examiners spend significant resources on making sure that these banks have effective internal monitoring systems to identify, detect and report suspicious activities via suspicious activity reports to the financial crimes enforcement network ( fincen ), the financial intelligence unit of the united states. the rule of law is necessary for the operation of a safe and effective international financial system. that is why countries around the globe are following financial action task force ( fatf ) guidelines and expect their financial institutions to use a risk - based approach to monitor financial transactions for illicit conduct and financial crimes. bribery involving government officials is particularly troubling because it directly hurts the very people the officials should be protecting. around the globe, governments are constantly seeking to procure goods and services to sustain and improve their physical infrastructure in order to help their citizens and their countries. governments often rely on a competitive bidding process to ensure that their expenditure of public funds is well - controlled and cost - effective. unfortunately, corrupt officials and complicit companies have found ways to subvert the

main contributor to the growth. one - time payments to households also supported consumption. the surveyed companies expect a further expansion of demand. according to the data on gdp for the second quarter and recent statistics for the third quarter, gross fixed capital formation also grows fast this year, and even faster than we assumed in our july forecast. the oil industry is a large sector where there is still a substantial space for the recovery growth. the opec + is gradually easing the oil production cuts. furthermore, the environment in the global markets of energy commodities has improved considerably. we have raised the forecast oil price for 2021 and 2022, specifically to 70 and 65 us dollars per barrel, respectively. i will now briefly talk of the situation in the labour market. the unemployment rate has decreased close to its record lows, while the number of vacant jobs has approached its record high. to fill the new jobs, we need either an inflow of labour migrants, or a redistribution of the current labour force among regions, industries, and enterprises. this process is objectively slower than the return of the available labour force to work during the period of the recovery growth. a higher competition for specialists between employers is promoting the conditions for an increase in wages. it is essential that a rise in wages is consistent with the growth of labour productivity in the relevant sectors. otherwise, it will entail higher costs which enterprises will pass on to consumers, and the rise in nominal wages will be ultimately absorbed by inflation. we keep our gdp forecast unchanged for the next year and further on. an additional tightening of monetary policy aimed at returning inflation to the target is coherent with the positive contribution of external demand and investments from the national wealth fund made to aggregate demand. gdp will increase by 4 – 4. 5 % this year and by 2 – 3 % further on, which is in line with the sustainable growth path. monetary conditions have changed only slightly after the september meeting. an increase in market rates following the rise in the key rate currently has only a limited effect on them. this is largely associated with the impact of higher inflation expectations. lending growth rates remained high in all segments, which is the main indicator evidencing that monetary conditions remained accommodative, rather than neutral in the third quarter as well. 2 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches over the period from the september meeting to yesterday, yields on federal government bonds rose by 50 – 60 basis points. the increase in short - term yields suggests a revision of market