structural foreign exchange flows from overseas filipino remittances, business process outsourcing receipts, and foreign direct investments. cash remittances from overseas filipinos are steadily flowing in with a 5. 3 - percent growth posted in january to october 2021 from a slight contraction in 2020. meanwhile, business process outsourcing services exhibited strong recovery in the same period with 8. 3 - percent growth, as the sector was quick to adjust to the new work arrangements. net foreign direct investments in january to september 2021 increased to usd7. 3 billion from us $ 5. 1 billion last year. this is due to positive foreign investor sentiment and improving confidence on the country ’ s growth prospects. this bodes well for job creation. favorable external debt profile acts as a cushion against external shocks. external debt - to - gdp ratio settled at 27. 3 percent as of end - september 2021, compared with about 60 percent in mid - 2000s. given that the bulk of the country ’ s external debt have medium and long - term maturity, and bears fixed interest rate, debt repayment schedule is more manageable and financially sustainable over the medium to long term. considering recent economic developments and significant progress in vaccine rollout, we are optimistic that there is sufficient support for the country ’ s recovery this year and in the near term. the management of risks, the expected revitalization of key industries from government policy support and structural reforms, as well as the resumption of global economic activities, should 2 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches help the philippine economy move toward a steady recovery path. while there are challenges ahead of us, we are making good progress in terms of economic recovery. that should motivate us to persevere harder and keep moving forward. we, at bsp, are all set to support and guide the economy on a steady recovery path toward growth and onward to a post - covid - 19 economy that is sustainable and digitally inclusive. maraming salamat at manigong bagong taon sa ating lahat! 3 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches

##3. results of the bsp ’ s survey of private sector economists showed their mean inflation forecast at 4. 4 percent for 2021. most economists saw the risks to the inflation outlook for 2021 as tilted to the upside due to persistent supply disruptions and rising global oil prices. nevertheless, for 2022 and 2023, economists expect inflation settling within target at 3. 5 and 3. 1 percent, respectively. liquidity in the financial system remains ample. domestic liquidity expanded by 8. 3 percent year1 / 3 bis central bankers'speeches on - year to p14. 8 trillion in november 2021, extending an uptrend since july. as i mentioned, the various liquidity - easing measures of bsp have injected some 2. 3 trillion pesos into the financial system, the equivalent of 12. 5 percent of gdp. meanwhile, outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of reverse repurchase placements with the bsp, increased at a faster rate of 3. 5 percent year - on - year in october from 2. 7 percent in september. the continued recovery in bank lending activity reflects the sustained expansion in business activity amid easing quarantine restrictions, declining covid - 19 cases, and increased vaccinations. the country ’ s external sector continues to provide sufficient buffers to ward off the potential adverse effects of external headwinds. our gross international reserves, which stood at us $ 107. 7 billion as of end - november 2021, continue to provide ample cushion against unforeseen demand for foreign exchange liquidity. this is equivalent to 10. 2 months ’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. it is also about six to nine times the country ’ s short - term external debt, based on residual and original maturity, respectively. amid the strong rebound in external demand in key trade partners, the country ’ s exports of goods increased by 16 percent in january to september 2021. meanwhile, following the gradual resumption of domestic economic activities and restocking of inventories, imports of goods grew at a much faster rate of 30. 2 percent in the same period. this resulted in a wider trade deficit of us $ 36. 6 billion and has caused the overall balance of payments ’ position to the reversal of the deficit of us $ 665 million in the first nine months of 2021, from a us $ 6. 9 billion surplus in the same period last year. the country ’ s external sector remains supported by