moderate its recovery, affecting disposable income for consumption. turning to the performance of gross fixed capital formation ( gfcf ), it has been aligned with our september forecasts. its evolution continues to be marked by dissimilar behavior between components and sectors. machinery and equipment remains more dynamic compared to the stagnant construction and works for several quarters. by items, the dynamics of investment in mining again contrast with the lag of other sectors ( figure 8 ). credit is still weak, reflecting still tight demand for funding, in a context where short - term lending rates continue to reflect the reductions to the mpr. since their recent peaks, they have fallen by around 550 and 750 bp in the consumer and commercial portfolios, respectively ( figure 9 ). longterm interest rates ( btp10 ) are about 10 bp lower than they were in september. projections in the short term, the main adjustment to the central scenario of this ipom is that we factored in the higher cost pressures. compared to previous estimates, the projection also considers a greater passthrough of costs to prices in the coming months, given the simultaneity with which the different cost shocks have occurred and the tighter operating margins of businesses. as i said, core inflation leads the revisions, with average inflation in 2025 to be 0. 5 percentage points higher than forecast in september. for total inflation, this is partially offset by downward corrections in some external prices, particularly of fuels. over the medium term, inflationary pressures will be dominated by a weaker outlook for domestic demand and easing cost pressures, including the gradual reduction of the real exchange rate ( rer ). this, even though the reduction in the financial burden on individuals and in short - term interest rates will sustain the recovery of consumption ( figure 10 ). in the central scenario, annual inflation will rise in the coming months, oscillating around 5 % during the first half of 2025. it will then begin to fall, closing that year at 3. 6 % and converging to 3 % in the first months of 2026 ( figure 11 ). the gfcf projections are also adjusted downwards, while ratifying differences between sectors. the capital goods corporation's survey continues to anticipate greater dynamism of mining investment in 2025 compared to other items, a divergence that is also reported in the business perceptions report and confirmed by high - frequency tax data sources. the main factor behind

conditions ( figure 4 ). in our country, as i showed some minutes ago, wage indicators have posted significant expansion rates, despite the weak outlook on the employment side. this increase is explained by a mix of factors, such as the recovery of real wages after the high inflation of previous years and the upward adjustment of the minimum wage. measured in real terms, the annual increase in the labor cost index ( prepared by ine ) has exceeded its historical averages in recent months. at the same time, indicators obtained from administrative records ( information from unemployment insurance administrators afcs ) show that the real annual variation in wages has been high over the last year. this has had direct effects on some cpi items, while at the same time adding to the cost pressures already noted for businesses. on the activity side, although third - quarter gdp was in line with our september assumptions, domestic demand grew less than expected. by sectors, manufacturing and copper mining performed favorably, while financial and business services underperformed, adding to the prolonged sluggishness of construction ( figure 5 ). as for this quarter, the october imacec showed an increase in activity after falling in september. these results include the impact of temporary supply - side elements on some items, factors whose recurrence added volatility to figures throughout the year. for the same reason, as we have said repeatedly, one should try to infer trends rather than focus on a single data point. the data for the rest of 2024 will also be subject to these factors, particularly due to the combination of december holidays. the lower dynamism of expenditure owes to a weaker private consumption, which was counteracted by greater public consumption. at the same time, the economy has been driven by external demand, as reflected by the evolution of exports of goods and services ( figure 6 ). the slowdown of private consumption occurs in a context of low job creation performance. the data reported by surveys and administrative records show a fall or stagnation in several dimensions, such as formal employment ( afc and afp data ), employment in some lagging sectors ( ine ) and also brackets of lower educational levels ( ine ) ( figure 7 ). contributors to the slow pace of job creation are the meager investment that has been seen for several quarters in the non - mining sectors, the evolution of activity in the most job - demanding sectors — such as construction — and the rise in compensation costs. the real wage bill has tended to