microcredit cases, the latest data show higher growth rates than in previous months. 4. these trends are part of the adjustment process of demand to sustainable levels. it is well - known that the projections of banco de la republica's technical staff for economic growth in 2023 are among the lowest of all analysts. it is estimated that this growth would only be 0. 2 %. however, it is important to note that, even with such low growth, the levels of activity that we would have in 2023 would be relatively high. actually, the adjustment in the growth rate between 2022 and 2023 is largely due to a base effect. therefore, if we compare the cumulative growth of colombian gdp to prepandemic levels, our performance would remain broadly favorable with respect to other countries in the region. on the other hand, it is worth noting that the labor market is performing relatively well in the context of the recent slowdown in growth. indicators to december for the country's urban areas show an annual growth rate of the employed population of 7. 5 % in the 13 main cities. however, this increase has been partially offset by a less positive employment performance in rural areas and the seats of the smallest municipalities. this phenomenon is probably associated with poor performance in agricultural and livestock production. on the other hand, the number of salaried employees at the national level shows an above - average growth, reflecting a dynamism of formal employment that is confirmed in the data on the number of contributors to the integrated social security contribution form ( pila in spanish ). 2 / 5 bis - central bankers'speeches inflation and expectations moving on to the inflation performance, the figures released last weekend for january show that, unfortunately, the adjustment process in demand has not yet begun to be reflected in inflation performance, which continues to rise. total inflation now stands at 13. 25 % and keeps being driven by food prices, rising to 26. 2 %, which is particularly high when we consider that food prices were already rising at 19. 9 % in january 2022. this means that in the last two years, food price levels have increased by more than 50. 0 %, which implies an increase in the relative price of this item of the family basket considerably greater than what can be explained by global factors. in part, this increase could be associated with purely sectoral supply factors, which would also explain the poor performance of the agricultural and livestock sector in a year in which all other

the economy, and to increase its capacity for withstanding external shocks. this task can be accomplished through three channels ( uribe, 2006 ) : • reducing the debt / gdp ratio increases the economy ’ s robustness and enables it to respond to negative external shocks such as changes in liquidity and foreign interest rate. this ratio is one of the main factors that rating agencies take into account when assessing the economies resilience to shocks. • a low debt / gdp ratio enables the governments to operate counter - cyclical fiscal policy. • a low debt / gdp ratio reduces the exposure of the public sector to foreign exchange risk and the exposure of the financial system to domestic market risk. hence, it enhances financial stability. finally, the flexibility of the economy is also enhanced by a sound and efficient financial system. as is well known, domestic financial systems amplify and propagate external shocks to emerging markets economies, rather than helping smooth their effects. the build up of internal and external imbalances and the subsequent recession and financial crisis of the nineties in colombia attest to the perils of a pro - cyclical behaviour of the financial system. v. concluding remarks let me conclude with four key points : • colombia has benefited greatly from the strong global economic growth of recent years. • in the past, positive terms of trade shocks and capital inflows to colombian have ended in periods of boom and busts. • sound macroeconomic policies are central to maximizing the benefits of globalization, while minimizing the risks. • our monetary policy framework – the inflation target in concert with a relatively flexible exchange rate – has mitigated the effects of shocks and facilitated economic adjustment to new external circumstances. references aguiar, m., and g. gopinath ( 2007 ), “ emerging market business cycles : the cycle is the. trend ”, journal of political economy 115, 2007. krueger, a ( 2007 ) “ how to keep chile´s export orientation ”. mimeo. august 2007. mendoza e ( 1995 ) “ the terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and economic. fluctuations ” international economic review 36, 1995. parra, j ( 2007 ) “ stylized facts and the colombian business cycle ”, banco de la republica forthcoming. tenjo, f, l. charry, m. lopez and j. ramirez ( 2007 ), “ acelerador financiero y ciclos economicos en colombia : un. e