##pensable to an objective assessment of future concrete reforms. concluding remarks the unsatisfactory long - term performance of the mexican economy is of significant interest to both economists and policy makers. low per - capita gdp growth does not reflect mainly a problem of employment and investment, but one of productivity. in order to envision more rapid improvement in social wellbeing, we need to identify the structural obstacles to productivity expansion, notably in services and nonmanufacturing industries. structural reforms should, then, be focused on removing the root causes of impediments. a major task is one of measurement, as shown by the fact that statistical studies quantifying the effects of previous structural changes are relatively scarce. i am confident that your discussions will contribute greatly to an understanding of what mexico needs to do to attain much higher levels of prosperity. for an excellent exposition of static and dynamic inefficiency arguments applied to informality, see heckman, j. j. et al. ( 2010 ), “ policies to promote growth and economic efficiency in mexico, ” nber working paper series, november. bis central bankers ’ speeches bis central bankers ’ speeches

remarks by mr. javier guzman calafell, deputy governor at the banco de mexico, at the panel of central bank governors on “ new challenges for central banks in latin america ”. seminar on financial volatility and foreign exchange intervention organized by the central reserve bank of peru and the interamerican development bank. cusco, peru, july 25, 2017. 1 the central banks from emerging market economies ( emes ) have faced a challenging external environment in recent years. the monetary policies implemented by the advanced economies after the global financial crisis, combined with episodes of turbulence in highly integrated international financial markets deriving from a combination of factors, have resulted in substantial volatility of capital flows. in addition, emes have confronted a world economic environment characterized by lower rates of global potential growth, a decline in commodity prices, a growing anti - globalization sentiment and events of a geopolitical nature. the combination of these factors has led to a situation of acute uncertainty. if this were not enough, the global financial crisis has eroded confidence on our understanding of the economics science and of the proper way to implement monetary policy under current circumstances. the mexican experience of the last couple of years provides an illustrative example of the nature and magnitude of the challenges that our central banks have faced. since mid - 2014, the country has been hit by a combination of external shocks. to a significant extent, the current evolution of the economy the opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the institutional position of the banco de mexico or of its board of governors as a whole. has been determined by the impact of these shocks and the economic policy that has been implemented in response to them. let me refer briefly to the most important : 1. the price of the mexican crude oil basket fell from around 100 dollars per barrel in june 2014 to some 45 dollars per barrel at present. although the share of oil in exports and gdp is relatively modest, it accounts for a substantial share of public revenues. therefore, these developments have had significant implications for public finances. in fact, when the impact of the concurrent reduction in oil prices and output is taken into consideration, the result is a decline in annual public revenues from this source of approximately 5 percent of gdp since 2012. 2. after a prolonged period with near - zero interest rates, the us federal reserve began to increase the target for the federal funds rate in late 2015. while this shock affects emes in general,