both online and offline. that said, however, the legitimate demand for paper cash as a means of fully anonymous payments will be met at all times. it is also important to keep in mind that anonymity and full disclosure are not as simple as black and white. there are many subtleties in between. therefore, we must strike a delicate balance between protecting privacy and combating illicit activities. 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches right now, we are working together with the hkma and some other monetary authorities on cbdc. we hope such cooperation will better serve both global and domestic investors and help to enhance hong kong's role as an international financial center. looking ahead, we stand ready to deepen cooperation on cbdc with other monetary authorities as well as international institutions. thank you! 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches

roger w ferguson, jr : macroeconomic outlook and uncertainties remarks by mr roger w ferguson, jr, vice chairman of the board of governors of the us federal reserve system, at the twelfth district community leaders luncheon, federal reserve bank of san francisco, san francisco, 8 april 2004. * * * it is a pleasure to be with you today to speak about the current state of the u. s. economy. as you know, the economy appears to be engaged in a gradual process of recovery. as has often been the case in previous recoveries, however, the pace and breadth of the expansion thus far have been uneven. in particular, production and aggregate income have increased strongly in the past few quarters, but the labor market has been surprisingly weak. the most recent data suggest that the labor market is improving gradually ; but the question of whether this improvement is fundamental and durable will take some time to answer. although prices for some commodities have risen, underlying consumer price inflation only now looks to be stabilizing at a low level after falling for some time. in the remainder of my time with you today, i will first sketch more fully some of the recent developments in the economy and what i believe to be the most likely path forward. then i will discuss two uncertainties regarding that outlook that have garnered attention lately - namely the possibility that the labor market will continue to underperform and the possibility that financial stress in the household sector may cause the expansion to falter. as i will discuss in greater detail shortly, it seems to me that the evidence suggests that while neither risk can be ruled out, nor is either likely to come about. that said, of the two, the greater concern for me is the future performance of the labor market. as always, the views i will be expressing are my own and do not necessarily represent those of other members of the board of governors or the federal open market committee. recent economic developments for the most part, the past year has been one of continued recovery in the u. s. economy. after averaging just 2 - 1 / 2 percent at an annual rate in the first half of last year, the pace of real gdp growth surged to more than 6 percent in the second half. for 2003 as a whole, the pace of growth was the fastest since 1999. as has been the case for some time, households in 2003 provided considerable impetus to the economy. supported importantly by last summer ’ s tax cuts, low interest rates, and rising household wealth