samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
correction to stock prices, and an associated increase in the cost of equity capital, could compound a slowdown in the growth of capital spending. in addition, a stock market decline would tend to restrain consumption spending through its effect on household net worth. but on the upside, our economy has proved surprisingly robust in recent years. more rapid increases in capital spending, productivity, real wages, and asset prices have combined to boost economic growth far more and far longer than many of us would have anticipated. this “ virtuous cycle ” has been able to persist because the behavior of inflation also has been surprisingly favorable, remaining well contained at levels of utilization of labor that in the past would have produced accelerating prices. that it has not done so in recent years has been the result of a combination of special one - time factors holding down prices and more lasting changes in the processes determining inflation. among the temporary factors, the sizable declines in the prices of oil, other internationally traded commodities, and other imports contributed directly to holding down inflation last year, and also indirectly by reducing inflation expectations. but these prices are not likely to fall further, and they could begin to rise as some asian economies revive and the effects of the net depreciation of the dollar since mid - summer are felt more strongly. at the same time, however, recent experience does seem to suggest that the economy has become less inflation prone than in the past, so that the chances of an inflationary breakout arguably are, at least for now, less than they would have been under similar conditions in earlier cycles. several years ago i suggested that worker insecurity might be an important reason for unusually damped inflation. from the early 1990s through 1996, survey results indicated that workers were becoming much more concerned about being laid off. workers ’ underlying fear of technology - driven job obsolescence, and hence willingness to stress job security over wage increases, appeared to have suppressed labor cost pressures despite a reduced unemployment rate. more recently, that effect seems to have diminished in part. so while job loss fears probably contributed to wage and price suppression through 1996, it does not appear that a further heightening of worker insecurity about employment prospects can explain the more recent improved behavior of inflation. instead, a variety of evidence, anecdotal and otherwise, suggests that the source of recent restrained inflation may be emanating more from employers than from employees. in the current economic setting, businesses sense that they have lost pricing power and generally have been unwilling to

see the agencies'next set of proposals. 4 / 4
powerlessness, state of helplessness and lack of access and opportunities. in pakistan, literacy rate is about 50 per cent and there is a high correlation between poverty and literacy. those who are poor are preponderantly illiterate. therefore, intensified efforts for education and literacy will certainly help in alleviating poverty. the educational system which is usually leveler of incomes has created inequities in pakistan. the children of the well - to - do families study in english medium schools go abroad for higher education and return to occupy high positions in the country. the children of the poor families remain illiterate or go to madarsah or attend urdu medium schools and generally become clerks. this is not fair at all. we should have a system whereby those who are bright and talented but do not have means to attend the best educational institutions should be given scholarships by the government. it is gratifying to see that the talented students from backward areas of fata have been able to get into the state bank of pakistan by dint of their merit and not sifarish. drop out rates in our educational system are extremely high, the quality is poor and the skills imparted at government schools and colleges are highly irrelevant to the demands of the economy. the output from such educational institutions is, therefore, relegated to the ranks of the unemployed. while the economy has serious shortages of technical and professional manpower, we have surplus of ordinary bas and mas who do not have employable skills. this imbalance is one of the major factors for high unemployment among the urban educated youth. gulf states and malaysia are also looking for engineers, architects, technicians, mechanics, para - medical staff, nurses, etc. but we do not have adequate numbers available in the country. access to health facilities is also highly differentiated and parallels the story of educational facilities. the government - run hospitals, clinics and dispensaries are in terrible shape, devoid of basic drugs and equipment. the doctors manning these facilities concentrate on private practice and are indifferent towards the patients from the poor households. the drugs supplied by the government for free distribution are sold in the market to earn private profits while private patients have to fend for themselves. access to thana, kutchery and tehsil is also heavily tilted against the poor. they have to either seek the assistance of an influential person or offer bribes to get redressal of their grievances. as most of the time they do not have adequate financial resources, they

to you. so, ladies and gentlemen, you have arrived. but there is, as i have said in my talk, that other frontier that still needs to be conquered. and i am confident that your leadership skills and your vision are more than sufficient to achieve that ambitious but reachable goal. after all, a man ’ s reach should exceed his grasp or what ’ s a heaven for. that is what will usher this country into a new age of economic growth and prosperity. thank you! bis central bankers ’ speeches
centre in asia. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches chart 1 : comparison of us economic recovery strength * excluding the 2001, 1970, 1974 and 1980 double - dip recessions. chart 2. decline in us potential gdp bis central bankers ’ speeches

howard lee : central bank innovations - payments, data and capabilities speech by mr howard lee, deputy chief executive of the hong kong monetary authority, at the bis innovation summit 2021, 23 march 2021. * * * introduction 1. fellow central bankers, distinguished speakers, ladies and gentlemen. it ’ s my pleasure to speak to you in this important event. while participants of this event generally embrace technology and innovation, i guess that two years ago not many of us could have expected that virtual meetings would become a norm for international conferences. so while technological advances would often drive work process or behavioral changes, there are also times when societal changes spur technological developments or adoption. 2. of course the covid - 19 pandemic has had a lot more impacts than countless virtual meetings. the unprecedented disruptions and contractions in global trade have literally brought many economies to a standstill. small and medium sized enterprises ( smes ) are especially hard - hit given the smaller buffers they have. on the other hand, many ecommerce and other online activities are thriving. we are experiencing a much accelerated process of digitalization on many fronts. 3. these new developments call for central banks ’ innovations and digital solutions too. in the digital age, central banks will have to become innovators and commit ourselves to digital transformation for the benefit of our economies. in fact, the launch of the bis innovation hub ( bisih ) in 2019 is a testament to this commitment. for the coming year, bisih have announced 6 thematic priorities for driving innovations and staying ahead of the digital challenges. responding to new developments in the payments landscape 4. no doubt payment has been a key area for innovations in recent years. traditional payment systems have undergone transformation, not least with the introduction of fast payment systems. and new payment methods have emerged in the private sector. consumers are increasingly reliant on digital payments that offer better speed and convenience. however, when new forms of digital payment are increasingly used by the public, or even become the dominant means of payment in society, central banks would rightly be concerned about the resilience of the payment landscape, as disruptions could cause not just inconvenience, but also potentially significant economic damage. 5. at the same time, cryptocurrencies and stablecoins have emerged as a new class of assets that are sometimes claimed to be also a medium of exchange despite their volatility and concerns about their security. widespread adoption of these digital currencies by
minutes on a topic that has been an undercurrent throughout my remarks so far : prioritization of supervisory and regulatory actions. in my view, it is essential that regulators appropriately calibrate and prioritize their supervisory and regulatory actions. failing to do so could distract banks, bank management, supervisors, and regulators from focusing on key risks. as i noted earlier, the banking system remains strong and resilient, and banks are much better capitalized, with substantially more liquidity compared to 2008. the banking agencies also have substantially more tools available than they did two decades ago. yet, in light of recent actions taken by regulators, some could be led to question whether this was truly the case. we have seen several complex and lengthy proposals, rules, and guidance that do not relate to core banking risks and many other regulatory actions that do not appear to be designed to address shortcomings in our existing bank regulatory framework. in addition, our supervisory posture may have overcorrected relative to the risks that some institutions may face following the banking stress earlier this year. on supervision, the primary focus of supervision should be to address a bank's critical shortcomings in a timely way. to effectively support a well - functioning and stable banking system, bank supervision must not simply pinpoint compliance issues, failed processes, or rule violations. instead, bank supervision must focus on a bank's risk exposures, while prioritizing core safety and soundness issues in the context of the bank's financial condition. if the supervisory process fails to identify and escalate critical risks or to hold management accountable for known deficiencies, such as excess interest rate risk taking, that raises the potential for supervisory shortcomings, including impacting the ability of supervisors to anticipate how changes in the economy or banking sector could affect a bank's condition. 10 / 12 bis - central bankers'speeches at the same time, i have also heard reports, including from a number of state banking regulators, that some recent supervisory actions are excessive in light of the risks posed by certain smaller institutions. these reports of increased scrutiny, including on community and smaller regional banks - banks that were not responsible for the banking stresses earlier this year - are concerning, as they could undermine the nature of joint supervision between state and federal supervisors under the dual banking system. overzealous supervision is just as problematic as inattentive supervision. if banks are overwhelmed with remediating issues that do not relate

central bankers'speeches
, moral suasion, the endeavour to stabilise their own respective sovereigns or simply strategic considerations. in an economy in which the sovereign defaults, banks are likely to default, too. thus, the domestic banks have an incentive to invest in sovereign ’ s bonds and earn the yield mark - up if things go well. what happens in the event of a joint sovereign - bank default is not relevant for them. this undermines market discipline for governments and reduces their incentive to carry out necessary structural reforms. on the other hand, banks, which can obtain unlimited cash against sovereign collateral from the central bank, are protected from discipline from investors who provide funding. large sovereign bond exposures might also harm the real economy. rises in sovereign risk are transmitted into reduced bank lending. banks that were highly exposed to strained european sovereign debt have reduced their lending to the private sector. bis central bankers ’ speeches thus, the current regulatory treatment is incompatible with the principle of individual responsibility ; the market interest rate no longer reflects the riskiness of the investment. i am aware that banks as well as governments are afraid of rising funding costs as a result of ending the regulatory privileges afforded to sovereigns. the argument goes, moreover, that such a regulatory move risks considerable market turmoil. i do not think that this argument should keep us from doing the right thing. no market participant would judge a french bond to be as risky as a greek one : the riskiness of each is reflected in their prices. investors believe that sovereigns differ in terms of riskiness. so no one should be surprised when the regulatory treatment accommodates this fact. if additional capital requirements for european banks were imposed to cover sovereign exposures, the extra capital would be almost negligible on aggregate – albeit with substantial differences between banks. other measures, such as the inclusion of sovereigns in the large exposures regime might lead to more substantial repercussions, but these would be manageable if introduced over a transition period – which undoubtedly has to be granted. when it comes to funding costs for governments, a healthier banking system with better diversification would pose less of a burden on states. the contingent liabilities of the government would shrink which – all other things being equal – would reduce the risk of investing in sovereigns and, eventually lower the sovereign bond yields. the current regulation ’ s assumption that government bonds are risk - free has been dismissed by recent experience. the time is ripe to address the regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures.

without it, i see no reliable way of breaking the sovereign - banking nexus. bis central bankers ’ speeches
. 8 % ; two out of three survey participants are expecting it to shrink. 5 see deutsche bundesbank, monthly report, february 2017, p 53. 6 loans with a rate fixation period of more than 10 years rose from 10 % of new loans in 2014 to 20 % in 2016. 7 these scenarios represent isolated shocks which test for the impact of falling prices and the resulting macroeconomic developments on the banks ’ residential property portfolios. 6 / 6 bis central bankers'speeches

bis - central bankers'speeches let me emphasise that the costs of climate change for our economies will become so great that, at some point, we will see climate policy action. it is just a matter of time. 3 concluding remarks ladies and gentlemen, i started my intervention with football and i would like to end on that note. germany is not going to be the next euros champion. but, more importantly, our team have shown they can compete at an international level. the same can be said of our economy. thank you! 1 see eurostat, euro area unemployment at 6. 4 %, july 2024. 2 see for example the " lazard levelized cost of energy + " database, levelized cost of energy +, june 2024. 3 see falck, o. and akash kaura ( 2023 ), green skills in german manufacturing, cesifo econpol policy brief 55. germany stands out within europe as the largest single contributor, accounting for nearly 37 % of europe's international patent families ( ipfs ) in cleantech, followed by france and the uk with 14. 5 % and 8. 5 %, respectively. see also european patent office and european investment bank ( 2024 ), financing and commercialisation of cleantech innovation, april 2024. 4 see eurostat, r & d expenditure - statistics explained, march 2024. 5 germany accounts for nearly half of all hydrogen - related ipfs in the eu. see also european patent office and international energy agency ( 2023 ), hydrogen patents for a clean future : a global trend analysis of innovation along hydrogen value chains, january 2023. 6 kotz et al. ( 2024 ) : global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures, communications earth & environment, vol. 5 ( 116 ). 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches
- generation opportunity : to build a safer banking sector ; to strengthen our monetary union ; and in the process to take forward the historical process of european integration. we are privileged to have this opportunity – and we need to take it. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches

in europe remains fragmented along national lines. this has many drawbacks, not least that it disrupts monetary policy transmission, makes banks more exposed to country - specific shocks, and encourages home bias in government bond purchases that strengthen the bank - sovereign loop. to give an example of how far short we remain of a fully integrated financial market, a recent study found that, between 2005 and 2012, the average number of bank mergers and acquisitions per year in the united states was 343, whereas in europe the yearly average was just 58. one reason for this is that we have lacked a single system of supervision and resolution across europe, which has discouraged cross - border activity. bis central bankers ’ speeches we need a stricter system to ensure that, when we have the new tools of banking union, they are used proactively – namely, to create a stronger and more stable banking sector. we still have an uphill struggle in europe to restore investor confidence in the banking sector. and this is partly because we do not have a consistently strict approach to banks – on balance sheet transparency, on loss recognition and on resolution. evidence of this is the divergence in the price - to - book ratio for large and complex banks in the euro area and outside. for banks outside it is currently around 1, while for euro area banks it is only 0. 7 – in other words, euro area banks are priced by the market at less than their book value. an important reason for this is that countries outside the euro area have made much faster progress in acknowledging losses and resolving banks that were not viable. creating a genuine regime change, both in the system of supervision and resolution and in its application, could therefore have a powerful effect for europe. in the near term, it could help accelerate the clean - up of banks ’ balance sheets and thus restart bank lending. in the medium term, it could help encourage the development of genuinely european banks. so how do we get to this regime change? building a single system let me start with the first element, building a single system. in my view, for any system to be single, two conditions have to be fulfilled. first, there needs to be a single set of rules. second, if those rules contain any discretion, there needs to be a central authority that can enforce them evenly. a single system for supervision for supervision, we are currently making progress on both these conditions. in terms of rules, we now have a new rulebook for banks across europe as part
oil was somewhat neglected in the years when oil prices were low. potential geopolitical risks also push up the prices. last but not least, raw materials - such as gold traditionally - are playing an ever greater role in international investors ’ asset allocation, which also tends to generate an increase in demand. that notwithstanding, the influence of financial players on the price of oil should not be overestimated. the development of the long - term futures prices of crude oil indicates that the price spike was primarily triggered by a sustained increase in consumer demand. the price of five - year futures contracts for west texas intermediate crude has almost doubled in the last three years. following the sudden rise last spring, us capital market rates have since dropped back to the year - earlier level. the temporary increase in capital market rates in europe was slightly less pronounced. as a result of the opposing movements of the us and european interest rates of the past few weeks, the long - term dollar interest rates now exceed the corresponding interest rates in the euro area by approximately 50 basis points. on the one hand, the general interest rate development in the capital markets reflects market participants ’ misgivings concerning the strength of the economic upswing. on the other hand, the historically low nominal interest rates are testimony to the markets ’ confidence in the ability and determination of central banks to further ensure price stability. moreover, the interest rate structure in the us is characterised by the sizeable dollar investments from asia. international equity markets trended sideways for much of the year, although some emerging market indices in particular were able to generate significant profits. 2. managing the national bank ’ s assets the national bank manages monetary reserves slightly in excess of chf 60 billion, two - thirds of which are held in foreign currency investments and one - third in gold. in addition to this are approximately 25 - 30 billion swiss franc assets in the form of balances from repo transactions in the 1 / 2 money market and bond investments in the domestic capital market. the monetary reserves and swiss franc assets combine to make up the monetary assets, which are required for monetary policy. in addition to these assets, the national bank also manages the proceeds from the sale of the surplus gold reserves. the portfolio of these so - called free assets amounts to slightly more than chf 20 billion. in the management of the monetary assets, monetary policy objectives and restrictions have priority. in compliance with the primacy of monetary policy, the investments are optimised according to security, liquid

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