samchain/econo-pairs-v2 huggingface dataset:
few years. reduced - form regressions suggest that the response of core inflation to energy prices has diminished over the past twenty years. does this smaller response reflect a change in the expectations formation process that has come about because the public perceives that inflation will remain low, perhaps because the monetary authority is now seen to be more vigilant in reacting to price pressures? or does it reflect a reduction, from the late 1970s until a couple of years ago, in the persistence of energy price movements that has prompted firms to be less worried about passing temporary cost increases onto customers? determining which of these explanations is most important is a critical issue for monetary policy right now, when futures markets indicate that people expect the current elevated price of energy to persist. but economists are not well positioned to provide much evidence on this issue, given the relative paucity of empirical work on expectations formation. certainly the standard approach used to estimate structural models is not that helpful because it simply assumes an answer - rational expectations, typically accompanied by full central bank credibility. but how well does this assumption match reality? true, financial market participants do seem to respond to incoming economic data in a generally forward - looking and logical manner, but we also observe asset price levels, volatility, and implied risk premiums that are sometimes difficult to understand. and i doubt that any central bank has achieved perfect credibility in the markets. moreover, it is not obvious that investors'expectations always line up with those of households and firms, the ones that should matter for wage and price setting. we really know very little about the precise manner in which these agents form their beliefs about the future, in part because of a lack of comprehensive data on expectations. nonetheless, economists are certainly grappling with this issue, as evidenced by the growing interest of late in models that incorporate rational inattention, sticky information, learning, and imperfect credibility. behavioral economics, with its focus on how people perceive and act on information in making decisions, may also provide some insights into the modeling of expectations. if plausible departures from rational expectations and full credibility are empirically verified, then our structural models need to take that into account. a new set of questions would then be on the table in policy analysis. among other questions that could be addressed would be how policy actions ( as opposed to inflation outcomes ) influence expectations and how sensitive federal reserve credibility is to short - run departures from low inflation. such knowledge would be extremely useful in current circumstances in gauging the scope

rate by 1 percentage point, all else being equal. 4 / 4
bdo ( 2020 ) maori business survey report hawkesby ( 2020 ) kaitiakitanga : te ao maori o te putea matua - guardianship : the maori world view of the reserve bank. speech delivered to the raising maori investment capability conference 2020 in tauranga, new zealand mcleod, r. and v. lam ( 2021 ) an overview of maori financial services institutions and arrangements, reserve bank of new zealand discussion paper 2021 - 03 new zealand productivity commission ( 2020 ) new zealand firms : reaching for the frontier, draft report. reserve bank of new zealand ( n. d. ) the future of cash - te moni anamata. retreived 27 april 2021 reserve bank of new zealand ( 2018 ) the journey of te putea matua : our tane mahuta. retrieved on 30 april 2021 reserve bank of new zealand ( 2021 ) te putea matua becomes inaugural member of new, international central bank network for indigenous inclusion. stats nz ( 2017 ) national ethnic population projections : 2013 : 2013 ( base ) - 2038 ( update ) stats nz ( 2018 ) maori unemployment rate at nine - year low, but twice new zealand rate. te puni kokiri ( 2020 ) te matapaeroa 2019 - looking toward the horizon the treasury ( 2019 ) our living standards framework. retrieved 30 april 2021.

the future is maori panel remarks delivered to the institute of directors new zealand leadership conference in tamaki makaurau on 6 may, 2021 by christian hawkesby, assistant governor and general manager, economics, financial markets and banking group written with evelyn truong 1 1 with thanks to naomi mitchell, ngarangi haerewa, emily laws, adrian orr, ngarimu parata, gael price, adam richardson, juliet tainui - hernandez and tania te rangingangana simpson for their input and ongoing work in this area. 2 the terrace, po box 2498, wellington 6140, new zealand telephone 64 4 472 2029 online at www. rbnz. govt. nz mihimihi ( greeting ) e nga mana, e nga reo. e nga karanga maha o te wa. tihei mauri ora! ( to all authorities, all voices, to the many chiefs gathered here. behold the breath of life! ) no rangiora ahau ko waimakariri te awa ko aoraki te maunga kei te whanganui - a - tara ahau e noho ana kei te putea matua ahau e mahi ana ko christian hawkesby toku ingoa tena koutou katoa ( hello, my name is christian hawkesby : my home town is rangiora ; my river is the waimakariri ; my mountain is aoraki / mt cook ; i reside in wellington ; and i work at the reserve bank of new zealand. ) e te rangatira, kirsten patterson ( kp ) karanga mai mihi mai whakatau mai tena koutou katoa ( thank you to the leadership of the institute of directors who have called us here ; who have welcomed us here ; who have looked after us here. thank you very much ). whakatakinga ( introduction ) as a member of the institute of directors, i was delighted to see the important topic of te ohanga maori ( the maori economy ) on the agenda for this conference. it will shape the role of directors in the years to come. today i want to talk about why an understanding of te ao maori ( the maori world ) needs to be a core competency of all new zealand directors. i ’ ll do this in two ways : • first, i want describe my own journey into te ao maori. i ’ ll highlight some of the
capital inflows inevitably puts the monetary authorities to trial. to illustrate the large scale of this process, i will give bulgaria as an example, where the capital inflow ( in the form of direct investment and debt ) was 1. 5 % of gdp in 1998, and in the recent two years it approximates 15 % of gdp. thirdly, the significant and long - lasting growth since 2003 in the prices of oil and other energy resources considerably contributed to the international imbalances, and more particularly to bulgaria ’ s current account deficit. this process accounted for the considerable growth of the expenditures for imports of energy resources incurred by the importer countries, and for the enormous cash flows channeled to the exporting countries. for bulgaria, these developments in energy resource prices resulted in an increase in the costs of import of such products from eur 1. 7 billion in 2002 ( the year after which the process of sustainable oil price increase started ) to almost eur 3. 0 billion in 2005. this trend was very strongly manifested in the past year, when the country ’ s expenditures for energy resource imports grew by 52 % against 2004. these three global trends, in combination with the approaching full - fledged eu membership of our country, produce a unique environment that the bulgarian economy has never before faced. this makes the analysis of the processes and economic policy decisionmaking very complex and difficult. as i have already noted, in the recent several years, enormous volumes of capital were channeled into the country, the banking system acting as the natural intermediary for the effective distribution of these resources. this is not surprising at all, given the successfully implemented privatization of the banking sector in bulgaria. at present, over 80 % of the bulgarian banking sector is owned by foreign investors, the majority of which are from euro area countries. as a consequence of strong competition and the good investment prospects, the growth rate of lending to the private sector accelerated to levels of 48. 6 % at year end - 2004. the ratio of banking credit to gdp increased from 12. 1 % in 1999 to 45. 0 % at the end of 2005. of course, this dynamics reflected to a great extent the process of convergence of the country ’ s economy, and in particular the degree of financial intermediation, to the levels evidenced in eu member states ( 112 % of gdp ). at the same time, the central bank cannot help asking the question to what extent the quick growth of bank credit may result in potential risks for

country ’ s external imbalance financed by capital inflows is more of a signal of stability, credibility and potential for development of our economy. of course, the economic policy makers are not and may not be complaisant. the challenges bulgarian economy is facing are well recognized, and there is the will to take all the necessary measures to preserve the stability and growth in the economy. ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention.
, which are necessary both for increasing aggregate supply and demand and enhancing our economies ’ resilience to shocks. however, i shall not stand in for the panel and will thus shortly conclude this introduction by welcoming in advance the fruitful sharing of experience to which all of you will contribute today. central bankers frequently meet in international policy fora, such as those organized under the auspices of the bis, imf or g20, etc. yet i hope today ’ s symposium will be a special occasion to stimulate this exchange of views and build on it with academics, financial institutions and the public at large, since it is broadcast live on the internet. therefore, i would like to hand the floor without further ado to haruhiko kuroda. bis central bankers ’ speeches

gdp. this rule must be incorporated into the member states ’ national legal systems, preferably at the constitutional level. on the other hand, europe has equipped itself with an instrument to combat crises. at the last european council meetings, it was decided to accelerate the creation of the permanent european stability mechanism ( esm ) to july 2012, and to make it more powerful. an important step in this direction has been provided by the agreement to accelerate the payment of the paid - in capital for the esm, starting with the payment of two tranches in 2012 and to increase the lending capacity of the esm to 1tn dollar. bis central bankers ’ speeches all in all, these changes constitute the most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the eu and the euro area since the launch of economic monetary union almost 20 years ago. * * * * * * * * * the euro area has already demonstrated its determination and ability to take decisive steps to exit the crisis. many more remain to be taken, and all of the players – the banks, governments, european institutions – need to continue to face up to their responsibilities. the eurosystem is providing the european economy with key elements of stability. first and foremost, we are providing price stability and will continue to take all necessary measures to fulfil this mandate. moreover, our recent exceptional and temporary measures should be seen as a window of opportunity for banks to strengthen their balance sheets and for governments to step up their efforts in a less troubled financial environment. thank you for your attention. bis central bankers ’ speeches
of reserves down the road. for all these challenges, i look forward to your ideas, your expertise, your input. because monetary policy is too important, too crucial for our economy and our general well - being, to rely on trial and error. the ecb, the central banks, would prefer to avoid the honour of receiving an ig nobel prize. yes, in the history of the ig nobel prizes some were also awarded as criticism wrapped up in a blanket of satire. for instance, in 2009, the ig nobel for economics was awarded to the directors, executives, and auditors of four icelandic banks for demonstrating that tiny banks can rapidly mushroom into huge banks, and vice versa, and for demonstrating that similar things can happen to an entire national economy. so, to avoid that'honour ', we need data and research to fulfil our mandate, so that we can do the best possible job at what we must do best. because in monetary policy, we cannot live by the slogan of the ig nobel prizes, also the closing remark of the annual ceremony : " if you didn't win a prize – and especially if you did – better luck next year! " so, make us think! 3 / 3 bis - central bankers'speeches

for the implementation of monetary policy ; and, of course, as a cost - effective mechanism to help finance u. s. government activities. today's conference provides an excellent opportunity to discuss topics like this one, and to bring together diverse perspectives from across the treasury market and the official sector to consider the best path forward to promote treasury market resilience. thank you all for joining us today. 1 i would like to thank leon barker and ellen correia golay for their assistance in preparing these remarks. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches
and monetary policy – are generating new patterns of funding, new players and changes in capital flows across global markets. those issues will be reviewed in the initial session. as i mentioned before, the euro area has to deal with a severe crisis which has led to the fragmentation of the european financial system. while there are signs of a certain reversal in this process, a failure in this respect would be particularly harmful for the european project, since integration is at the core of the european union itself. the policy actions of the ecb and other european authorities, including the decisive drive towards a banking union, have been able to overcome or dissipate the worst fears, but the road ahead is still long and difficult. finally, the role of central bankers should be highlighted in this new context. we are big players in the financial arena, both from the regulatory and monetary policy standpoint ; and the framework for our actions – and reactions – must necessarily change and adapt to the new environment. the renewal of the set of instruments to address the price stability bis central bankers ’ speeches mandate, be it in a situation of low growth, as happens to advanced economies, or in a situation of large capital inflows, as happens to emerging market economies, is one aspect of that change. the need to take on board financial stability considerations is another aspect widely discussed. you will devote the final part of the day to this quest. and i do not want to take more time out of the tight agenda you will follow now. thank you very much for your attendance to this conference. i wish all of you and excellent day and a good discussion. bis central bankers ’ speeches

area of monetary policy conduct. schweigaard ’ s fundamental view was based on “ empirical methods ” rather than the “ empty speculation ” of idealism. 12 this still applies to monetary policy. theoretically anchored models and improved methods for quantifying them empirically provide a better basis for conducting an effective economic policy, which we take on board when we apply and further develop models and the analytical apparatus in norges bank. knowledge about relationships in the norwegian economy, in conjunction with professional judgement, provides a good platform. thank you for your attention and good luck with your studies! slagstad, rune ( 1998 ), “ de nasjonale strateger ” ( national strategists ), pax bis central bankers ’ speeches
will discuss, so that we can all go away with ideas on how to do our jobs better. thank you all for coming and enjoy today ’ s deliberations. bis central bankers ’ speeches

to msmes seeking financing during the covid - 19 pandemic period, primarily for short - term working capital needs and medium - term productive business investments. these programmes have been fully disbursed, and the central bank is currently collaborating with the government of barbados to negotiate a third round of funding from the idb for usd 50 million, which will have an expanded focus of : 1 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches 1. enhancing export readiness and diversification, innovative investment, food security, and climate adaptation ; 2. increasing the financial inclusion of women - led / owned business and persons with disabilities ; and 3. leveraging technical assistance to support capacity building and training of msmes. since the launch of the ecgf a decade ago, i can confidently state the operation of the ecgf has achieved its general objective of enhancing msme's access to muchneeded loan funding. in fact, during this period, the central bank has approved 326 guarantees totalling over usd 65 million for loans from eight participating financial institutions. furthermore, during the second loan programme to provide financing support during the covid - 19 pandemic, there was an increased demand for guarantees on loans to the renewable energy sector, which represented one - third of the total guaranteed amount. i am hearted that this sector is also posed to receive additional support in the third round of idb funding support. it is evident that idb continues to be a valuable development partner that is instrumental to barbados achieving its sustainable development goals. we will endeavour to maintain our strong collaboration into the future, and to provide the required support for our small business sector. we are heartened by the participation of the msmes and their financial institutions, including the enterprise growth fund limited, which has a mandate of providing financing to small businesses working capital purposes across the various economic sectors, including the renewable energy sector. i look forward to hearing first - hand the financial institutions'and businesses'experiences with the ecgf and to a lively dialogue on the important topic of access to financing for msmes. once again, welcome to everyone. 2 / 2 bis - central bankers'speeches
run. but monetary policy alone is not enough to ensure competitiveness in the long - run. for that we must have sound fiscal policy that supports our national infrastructure with prudent debt management ; and structural polices that address education, productivity, and institutional frameworks. at this point, i hope we have clearly laid out the policy vision for thailand that can serve as a basis for your investment decisions, risk management, and, ultimately, your continued partnership in the thai economy. on that note, let me conclude my talk here, so that you can proceed with the other interesting program that will follow after this. thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

prasarn trairatvorakul : thai monetary policy in the environment of excess global liquidity speech by dr prasarn trairatvorakul, governor of the bank of thailand, at the thailand focus 2011 – enhancing thailand ’ s competitiveness over the next decades, bangkok, 28 march 2011. * * * ladies and gentlemen, it ’ s an honor to speak before you today at the thailand focus conference. early this morning you heard prime minister abhisit vejjajiva speak on thailand ’ s competitiveness ; and later finance minister korn chatikavanij on fiscal policy. to close the circle, i will speak on monetary policy to complete your view on the investment opportunities and prospects of the thai economy. as international investors, i believe, you want to have a firm understanding of the country ’ s policy environment. this is what i will discuss today – the monetary policy options going forward in light of my assessment of the global economy and the thai economy. the assigned title of my talk today is “ thai monetary policy in the environment of excess global liquidity ”. let me stress that i have a different opinion on the issue of excess global liquidity than most. global liquidity is currently problematic in the sense that it is fluid, rather than excessive. let me discuss why. first, let me give you my assessment of the global economy. the global economy has entered a phase of fluid global liquidity amid uneven recovery and shifting risk appetite. this phase is characterized by weak recovery in the advanced economies which prompted loose monetary policy and extraordinary monetary measures such as qe2 in the us that have resulted in artificially low interest rates in the advanced economies. these record - low interest rates encouraged investors to seek out higher return in risky emerging market assets, particularly here in asia. in addition to the push factor of low interest rates and weak recovery in the us and euro area, strong economic fundamentals in asia, as reflected in growth and eventual currency gain, served as a pull factor. as a result, capital became more “ fluid ” – constantly in search of yield and therefore very sensitive to news and rumors. such search for risky yield resulted in capital inflows into eme assets last year, as you all know. these inflows contributed to the large appreciation of the thai baht last year, and indeed other emerging markets. here i want to emphasize that the inflows was due to a reallocation in global portfolio, or a
carl - ludwig thiele : welcome remarks - international cash conference 2017 welcome remarks by mr carl - ludwig thiele, member of the executive board of the deutsche bundesbank, at the international cash conference 2017, island of mainau, 24 april 2017. * * * ladies and gentlemen i would like to extend to you a very warm welcome to our third international cash conference here on beautiful island of mainau. i am delighted that all of you have come, some from very far away, to attend and shape this exciting conference. i hope that you all had a pleasant trip to lake constance. as the bundesbank executive board member responsible for cash and cashless payments, i am pleased to see the great interest with which the topic of cash is apparently being greeted. i recall some of you from the previous conferences or from other events, and it is nice to see you back here again. but those of you who are attending our cash conference for the first time are equally deserving of a warm welcome. i am looking forward to fruitful and animated discussions of highly topical issues relating to cash. academic interest in cash seems to be mounting, as is being evidenced by the increasing attendance at this conference or also the number of research papers that will be presented here. the format of this conference, designed to promote exchange not only between researchers specialising in cash but also between academics and central banks, appears to be becoming increasingly established in academic circles and is growing ever more popular. following the 2014 cash conference, the main theme of which was “ the usage, costs and benefits of cash ", for this year ’ s conference we would like to focus on the “ war on cash ” and, in the process, discuss the question of whether cash has a future. the “ war on cash ” has gone from being a purely academic matter some years ago to a topic of general public debate. in the debate, cash, a topic with many facets which is, to some degree, highly emotionally charged, is coming under repeated criticism. its detractors refer to it as inefficient, expensive and a tool for facilitating illicit transactions. they also see cash as impairing the effect of certain monetary policy measures since it prevents extremely negative interest rates from being simply enforced at the drop of a hat. some opponents of cash – including heavyweights in the field – are calling for limits on cash payments or even for cash to be abolished altogether. it is certainly no secret that we, the

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