/ r230601g. pdf 7 no longer tomorrow ’ s problem : how the reserve bank is working with its stakeholders to respond to climate change ref # 20681799 v3. 43 at rbnz we are doing our part to provide some of the key tools and processes that allow our financial system to more clearly see that future and realise it. i hope you ’ ll join us in that. thank you. 8 no longer tomorrow ’ s problem : how the reserve bank is working with its stakeholders to respond to climate change ref # 20681799 v3. 43 references bullock, m. ( 2023, august 29 ). climate change and central banks [ speech climate change and central banks ]. https : / / www. rba. gov. au / speeches / 2023 / sp - dg - 2023 - 08 - 29. html carney, m. ( 29 c. e., september ). breaking the tragedy of the horizon - climate change and financial stability [ speech breaking the tragedy of the horizon - climate change and financial stability ]. https : / / www. bankofengland. co. uk / speech / 2015 / breaking - the - tragedy - of - the - horizonclimate - change - and - financial - stability council of financial regulators. ( n. d. ). climate - related risks. retrieved from https : / / www. cofr. govt. nz / priority - themes / climate - related - risks. html improving maori access to capital. ( 2022, august 9 ). retrieved from reserve bank of new zealand website : https : / / www. rbnz. govt. nz / have - your - say / improving - maori - access - to - capital kamber, g., mcdonald, c., & price, g. ( 2013 ). drying out : investigating the economic effects of drought in new zealand. the reserve bank of new zealand analytical note. retrieved from the reserve bank of new zealand analytical note website : https : / / www. rbnz. govt. nz / / media / project / sites / rbnz / files / publications / analytical - notes / 2013 / an2013 - 02. pdf mcleod, r., & lam, v. ( 2021 ). maori financial services institutions and arrangements. reserve bank of new zealand. retrieved from reserve bank of new zealand website : https : / / www. rbnz. govt. nz / / media

and mastery of the data with judgement and humility. in addition, teams of forecasters can produce better results when the team is open to sharing and constructive debate. alan blinder ( 1998 ), central banking in theory and practice, mit. achieve in the future and working backwards to form a plan today that will deliver that goal. in our case the goal is inflation near 2 percent in two or three years ’ time, and the plan is given by the forecast of the official cash rate ( ocr ). if events broadly unfold as envisaged then we carry out that plan, if not, then we adjust the plan. a feature of our inflation forecasts are that they always end up at the mid - point of the target band. when planning our actions we necessarily plan to succeed in achieving this target. if we thought we would not achieve this we would modify our ocr forecasts. as such, the forecasts show our judgement of the highest probability path to achieve the goal, but this path is not fixed. as new information becomes available, we assess it and where appropriate incorporate it into our understanding and our plans. consequently, our policy settings are, and should be, responsive to any developments that might occur, and should move rapidly when required. for example, the sharp fall in inflation expectations in march 2016 ( amongst other developments ) led to us substantially revise our 90 - day interest rate projection 6 and move away from a neutral stance to an easing bias ( figure 1 ). 7 figure 1 : inflation expectations and selected 90 day interest rate projections source : rbnz estimates. 6 since november 2016 this has been replaced by the ocr projection. for further detail see rebecca williams, ‘ business cycle review : 2008 to present day ’ rbnz bulletin 80 ( 2 ) march 2017. the value of producing quantitative forecasts : internal discipline and the learning process so why do we produce specific forecasts given that our forecasts are conditional and subject to radical uncertainty? being numerically precise about our view of the future allows us to test ideas, which in turn accelerates our ability to learn and understand what is going on. over time, this helps to ensure that our forecasts are as robust as possible and form a solid basis for monetary policy decisions, minimising potentially costly forecast errors and supporting good policy outcomes. testing is an integral part of robust analysis. as nate silver puts it, " the more eagerly we commit to scrutinising and testing our theories, the