. preparing a skilled workforce you don ’ t need to be an economist to be concerned that we are not adequately preparing the next generation of workers. nationwide, about 20 percent of high school students fail to graduate within four years, and there are significant disparities in graduation rates between white students and black or hispanic students, and between students from high - income and low - income families. in some large urban school districts, as many as 40 percent of students do not graduate in four years. a growing share of those who do complete high school now go on to college. but far too many of these students fail to earn a degree : nationally, the college dropout rate is around 40 percent. 6 the benefits of attending college for a few semesters without graduating are relatively small. the unemployment rate for workers with some college education but no degree is comparable to the rate for workers with only a high school degree. and while students who have attended some college do earn on average about 15 percent more than high school graduates, this pales in comparison with the average earnings of those who have completed bachelor ’ s degrees. there is also substantial anecdotal evidence that employers are having difficulty finding workers with the right skills. this is a common refrain on our visits to communities throughout the region, and it ’ s supported by employer surveys. for example, 75 percent of manufacturers reported a moderate to severe shortage of skilled workers, such as welders, who must have strong math skills and be able to read blueprints. 7 there is an ongoing debate among researchers about the actual amount of “ skill mismatch ” in the labor market, 8 but many employers certainly seem to perceive that such mismatch is real. the key question is what can we do to increase the supply of skilled workers? the large increase in the college premium has led many policymakers and educators to advocate college for all. but as the high college dropout rate indicates, there is a big difference between enrolling in college and graduating. during focus group meetings held recently in virginia by the richmond fed, representatives from four - year colleges and community colleges shared that many students are surprised to discover they lack the basic math skills necessary for college - level work. if students overestimate their readiness for college, they may be more likely to enroll in college but then drop out after they get there. that can be a costly lesson to learn ; the average debt burden among college dropouts who took out loans is more than $ 14

jose de gregorio : chile ’ s approach to external turbulences and threats speech by mr jose de gregorio, governor of the central bank of chile, at the “ economic and entrepreneurial vision 2011 – 2012 ”, organized by the manufacturers association sofofa and universidad del desarrollo, santiago, 19 october 2011. * * * i thank the valuable comments of luis alvarez, luis oscar herrera and enrique orellana. in the past several years we have endured macroeconomic turbulences of unbelievable magnitude, as well as new challenges. the years 2007 and 2008 saw a sharp increase in inflation, then came the global financial crisis and the recession of 2009, to be topped off by an earthquake and a tsunami in february 2010. today we can say that we weathered this string of difficulties but we remain on the alert, because the threats from the world economy are far from over. these days, our greatest concern is the state of the developed economies and its ramifications on the emerging world and particularly chile. in mid - 2009, the world economy began to recover from the effects of the international financial crisis. however, such recovery featured two different speeds ( figure 1 ). the emerging economies have grown strongly and have had to deal with risks of inflationary pressures and fast credit growth, while the developed economies have recovered slowly. since the middle of last year, we have stated in our monetary policy and financial stability reports that there are many risks still latent. in particular, that us growth would weaken and the european sovereign debt would propagate from the peripheral economies to other countries in the region. as months have gone by these risks have materialized. the crisis that broke out in 2008 has not finished. although at first the policies applied around the world succeeded in averting immediate damage and an economic depression, there are still many issues that have yet to be resolved before it can be left behind. one such issue is the fragile financial situation of states, banks and households in several developed economies. in chile, and in most emerging economies, we have been innocent witnesses of the crisis. it has posed new challenges to monetary and financial policy - makers to minimize the impact of external turbulences and allow our economies to continue along a path of sustainable growth. the experience of 2008 – 2009 taught us lessons for our policy conduct, but, more importantly, it left us the conviction, not only to policy makers but also to the general public, that we are able to mitigate the adversities coming from