stage. it ’ s still too early to assess the overall impact on the economic outlook, as there are currently insufficient post - referendum data available. furthermore, the impact depends considerably on the outcome of negotiations between the uk and the eu regarding future formal relations. in my opinion, neither party has anything to gain by re - erecting barriers. it is essential that we maintain the cooperative culture we have built up over so many years. ladies and gentlemen, international cooperation always starts at the personal level. this is where our representative in south africa comes into play. her task is to build networks, to share information and ideas, to explain the bundesbank ’ s positions and to facilitate cooperation. tonight, i would like to take the opportunity to welcome ms jenny kilp. ms kilp graduated from liebig university in giessen with a diploma in economics, and after gathering several years of experience in the academic world, joined the deutsche bundesbank in 2004. since then, ms kilp has been an expert in the bundesbank ’ s directorate general financial stability, where she was in charge of policy issues regarding the international monetary fund ( imf ). she has analysed the economic situation of a vast number of countries for the bundesbank and gained a sound overview of the problematic issues facing various parts of the world, also in terms of the spill - over effects of industrial countries ’ policies on other parts of the world. ms kilp is already familiar with south africa as she worked on a project here while she was a student. now she is committed to moving with her family to this great country for at least two to three years. i value her openness, excellent specialist knowledge and ingenuity – all traits which will serve her well in her new post! some of you have already met her, and i am sure that she will be a great first bundesbank representative to south africa. i wish ms kilp all the best and a good start for her new appointment! thank you. bis central bankers ’ speeches

ernst welteke : a european perspective on the world economy address by mr ernst welteke, president of the deutsche bundesbank, at the 13th annual hyman p minsky conference on the state of the us and world economies “ economic policy for sustainable growth ”, new york, 15 april 2003. * * * ladies and gentlemen! at times like these, where transatlantic ties are under strain, i regard it as both an exceptional honour and a welcome opportunity to be able to present my european view of the world economy here at the 13th annual hyman p minsky conference on the state of the us and world economies. our transatlantic dialogue must not be interrupted, even when our views differ in important respects. i am a member of the german - american friendship organisation “ atlantik - brucke ”. in february, our organisation ran an ad in the new york times entitled “ a message from germany ”. its essence reads : “ for the overwhelming majority of germans, the relationship with the united states remains of vital importance. current differences of opinion between governments over the question of iraq must not be allowed to sever that bond ”. i would like to confirm that view today here in midtown manhattan. in the following, i will first comment on the present state of the world economy, which is characterised by unusually high uncertainty. afterwards i would like to give you some facts about the german economy. finally, i will try to spell out the european view of how the fundamentals must be set for sustainable growth to take place. 1. the present state of the world economy 1. 1 uncertainty abounds the world economy has not been in exactly very good shape these past few months. the ongoing war in iraq is weighing on the world economy. financial markets are fickle ; confidence among businesses and consumers remains subdued. we must, however, not be fooled into regarding the war in iraq as the sole source of uncertainty or the predominant issue for the world economy. uncertainty was around before that war was on the horizon, and uncertainty will stay on for a while even after a - hopefully fast - end to the war. what is more, uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife seems to be deflecting our focus from some fundamental imbalances. redressing these imbalances is a precondition for a return to sustainable growth. overinvestment incurred during the millennium boom is being unwound only slowly. vast spare capacity forms the backdrop for weak capital spending.