you agree to our terms of use and privacy statement. you can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our privacy statement. specifically, i currently expect real gdp growth in the united states to be below one percent this year, and then to rebound slightly to around 1 - 1 / 2 percent next year. with overall growth slowing to below its trend level, i expect the unemployment rate to move up from its very low current level, reaching somewhat above 4 percent next year. economic conditions in puerto rico similar to the mainland, employment in puerto rico has rebounded quickly and strongly. before the pandemic, the economy was just showing signs of emerging from a decade - and - a - half - long economic slump, during which both the population and employment had fallen by about 16 percent. then, in the spring of 2020, employment tumbled another 14 percent, a far steeper decline than after hurricane maria in 2017. the subsequent turnaround has been astounding. today, total employment is up 5 percent from pre - pandemic levels and is at a nine - year high, and the unemployment rate is at a record low. the recovery has been broad - based, but we've seen particular strength in certain industries like professional business services, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing. tourism rebounded significantly too, with hotel occupancy rates reaching above 75 percent. soaring inflation all in all, maximum employment has been achieved. but inflation remains unacceptably high, and we are far from the fed's longer - run inflation goal of 2 percent. since early last year, inflation has increased rapidly to levels many of you have not seen in your lifetimes. this experience is not unique to the united states ; nearly all countries around the world are seeing rising costs, and central banks everywhere are working to contain them. the rise in inflation has been extraordinary. in december 2020, overall inflation, as measured by the 12 - month percent change in the personal consumption expenditures ( pce ) price index, was 1. 3 percent. in may of this year, it was 6. 3 percent. a significant portion of this sharp rise reflects global increases in food and energy prices. but, even excluding those costs, the " core " inflation rate has increased from 1. 5 percent a year and a half ago to 4. 7 percent today. it's more than just numbers. high inflation is incredibly harmful, especially to those that can least afford to shoulder the escala

in economic functioning. the chinese government has taken a series of policies to effectively mitigate risks related to local government debt and the real estate market. up to now, these risks are contracting on the whole. in terms of local government debt, the chinese government debt level is in the middle - to - lower range internationally. the debt burden on the central government is not 2 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches heavy while the debt risks of the local governments are mainly concentrated in some less - developed regions. in recent years, we have taken a series of measures to enforce strict financial discipline and control new debts. we have guided financial institutions to, following the market principle and the rule of law, consult on an equal footing with financing vehicles, and restructure their debts through rollover, paying off old debts with new loans, and debt swap. the aim is to gradually transform those financing vehicles into market - oriented enterprises. up to now, the number of local government financing vehicles and their debt scale have both plunged, indicating a contraction of risks. to further defuse risks related to local government debt, the cpc central committee has decided to raise the debt ceiling of local government by rmb6 trillion, and allocate rmb4 trillion in the newly - issued local government special bond to swap the existing implicit debts. the two combined will provide funds worth of rmb10 trillion, which will significantly reduce the pressures on local governments in defusing debts, and mitigate the debt risks of local financing vehicles. in terms of the real estate market, after long - cycle prosperity for nearly three decades, china's real estate market has experienced a fundamental shift and is now looking for a new point of equilibrium. we have implemented a mix of policies from both demand and supply sides, such as removing restrictions on housing purchase in medium - and large - sized cities, optimizing real estate financial policies ( lowering the down payment ratio and mortgage rates, and establishing a financing coordination mechanism ), and improving relevant tax policies. meanwhile, the market entities worked hard to heal and improve themselves by adjusting their operation strategies and restructuring their debts. with these efforts, the risks of the real estate market have been greatly mitigated and the transactions increased overall. since october 2024, the floor area of for - profit housing sold in 30 medium - and large - sized cities has grown for three consecutive months on a month - on - month basis and for two straight months on a year - on - year basis.