smartphones as the sole channel for their entire service package. as habits change and technical innovations emerge, so, too, will people expect the banking industry to evolve and adapt. there is also a growing desire among customers to use bank services whenever they want, however they want. researchers and policymakers have launched a variety of initiatives in an effort to categorise technological advances and uses and to quantify the impact on the economy and society. yet we need to keep in mind that there ’ s very little, if anything, we can say with any certainty about how financial technologies ( “ fintechs ” ) will evolve going forward. after all, the sky ’ s the limit for technology – many ideas are refined and tweaked, others are discarded. whether or not an application is worth pursuing depends in part on how well it goes down with customers, and many other developments in the market. for me, any attempt to realistically predict whether an innovative app will stand the test of time is a little like trying to predict how climate change will impact on the luneburg heath bird population ten years from now. that being said, it does no harm to say that digitalisation has unleashed an irreversible process. few of us these days shed a tear over the demise of analogue photography, bis central bankers ’ speeches typewriters or credit transfer slips. and that ’ s why all stakeholders in the banking industry would be well advised to embrace digital change, and do so sooner rather than later. i would now like to explore the challenges faced by two of the parties mainly affected by the advent of digitalisation : supervised credit institutions, and the financial supervisors and standard - setters themselves. 2. digitalisation – a challenge for traditional banks ladies and gentlemen, speaking as a banking supervisor, i would boil the challenges facing credit institutions down to a straightforward formula. the jury is still out on whether banks can cope with the wave of innovations and remain both profitable and safe in the brave new digital era. remaining profitable is a tall order for a number of reasons. first, the competitive landscape in the digital era is a more colourful, more global and faster - moving place. fintech companies touting groundbreaking, it - based business ideas are making inroads into the market. in 2014, fintech start - ups attracted a total of more than us $ 12 billion in funding worldwide. 1 the hypedup exuberance seen in the last few years and the spectre of

with the inevitable changes. scenarios also help to connect strategies and action plans to our visions. using scenarios will essentially widen our perspectives, increase our understanding of the issues and developments. it also allows us to see opportunities that we may otherwise miss. new developments emerging would be seen from different angles and perspectives. the framework thus promotes a greater awareness and appreciation of the wider range of issues and will allow the potential to see things earlier and thereby respond to them more promptly. thus, embedding scenario analysis and planning in our organizational activities is aimed at enhancing the potential for the organization to successfully maximize its position in a rapidly changing and highly uncertain environment. ladies and gentlemen, this seminar is part of iclif's skills building and knowledge sharing initiatives. our ultimate aim is to create a critical mass of high calibre leaders who can bring their organizations from good to great. dr. robert bood and mr. ronald bradfield, the two domain experts who have been conducting scenario thinking and planning programme for iclif, will shed more light on these areas in the course of the seminar. we hope you will benefit from the session, i wish you a productive and successful seminar. thank you.