to two percentage points. there are also indications that the chinese economy may be slowing, but the chinese authorities have the ability and resolve to intervene strongly to prevent a so - called hard landing. one region with a more favourable outlook is sub - saharan africa, which is expected to grow by around 5, 5 per cent this year. south africa ’ s financial and trade links with africa have been increasing in recent years, and the continent is fast becoming the major bis central bankers ’ speeches destination for our manufactured exports. during the financial crisis, africa was relatively protected from the fall - out, given the predominance of intra - regional trade, and south africa would do well to encourage further two - way trade and investment with the region. one of the consequences of the global crisis has been the severe social dislocation that has accompanied it, and it is questionable how long such pain can be endured. the recent protests on the streets of athens and general popular opposition raises questions as to whether or not the latest initiatives are politically sustainable. history is replete with examples of how circumstances similar to those described lead to political polarisation and the rise of nationalism and / or populism. this is happening in the context of a divided europe, with no consensus on the appropriate solutions to the problems, and irresolute leadership reflected in weak and tenuous coalition governments. the social problems are reflected in the spiraling of unemployment in some of the advanced economies. this is particularly the case when it comes to youth unemployment. in this respect south africa is no longer unique, with its estimated unemployment rate of 23, 9 per cent, and youth unemployment at around 50 per cent. the negative trends in europe in particular are quite dramatic. in the beginning of 2008 the unemployment rate in the european union was 6, 9 per cent and the unemployment rate amongst the youth ( i. e. persons below 25 years of age ) was 15, 9 per cent. in january 2012 the unemployment rate in the eu was 10, 7 per cent, while youth unemployment measured 22, 4 per cent. the number of unemployed youth totaled 5, 5 million. there are some stark divergences within the region, with overall unemployment ranging from 4, 0 per cent in austria, to 23, 3 per cent in spain, and youth unemployment ranging from 7, 8 per cent in germany to 48, 1 per cent in greece and 49, 9 per cent in spain. as a rule of thumb, the youth unemployment rate is

on the code of monetary and financial policies ( standards ) ; • the need for greater transparency at all levels, beginning with the imf itself. the imf ’ s special data dissemination standard should be expanded ; systems for reporting external debt should be improved ; the operations of international investors should be disclosed in more detail ; the fund ’ s surveillance operations should be expanded ; • plans for an increase in private sector involvement in preventing and resolving financial crises ; • introducing or tightening capital controls is not regarded as appropriate in dealing with fundamental economic imbalances. the imf ’ s executive board was nevertheless asked to review experience with the use of controls and the circumstances under which they may be appropriate ; • the interim committee expressed its serious concern over the imf ’ s tight liquidity position. it stressed the critical importance of augmenting imf resources ; and • there was general support for expanding the enhanced structural adjustment facility ( esaf ) and the highly indebted poor countries ( hipc ) initiative. south africa does not qualify for any one of these facilities, although we have a vested interest in the proposal because of our sympathy for other countries in our constituency. it will be noted that none of these proposals are very revolutionary and are intended to work mostly through the existing framework of institutions and systems. more radical proposals are nevertheless also being thrown around in the global debate, e. g. : • for a major revision of the present floating exchange rate system and a return to a more stable system for the global structure ; • for a merger of the imf and the world bank in one organisation ( a merger of the interim committee and the development committee ) ; – 4 – • for the conversion of the imf into a world central bank with a lender - of - last - resort facility ; and even • for a close - down and termination of the role of the imf. south africa ’ s role in the debate over the past year the south african economy was severely affected by the adverse world financial conditions. our approach has been to manage our economy as best as we could in this adverse environment, and to work with the international community to seek for a global solution. as one of the leading emerging market economies, south africa has many opportunities to make a constructive contribution to the ongoing debate on the reform of the international financial system. unfortunately, we do not have the resources to participate more actively in all the discussions that are now taking place. * * *