and its impact on the euro area economy at its last monetary policy meeting on 10 april, the ecb governing council confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation remains necessary to safeguard favourable financing conditions and support the economic expansion. this will ensure that inflation remains on a sustained path towards levels that are consistent with our inflation aim – a rate of inflation which is below, but close to, 2 % over the medium term. we continue to expect the key ecb interest rates to remain at their present levels at least 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation consistent with our inflation aim. the governing council also confirmed its intention to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme. this will continue for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ecb interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation. to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy, and to support access to financing, in particular for small and medium - sized enterprises, the governing council decided in march to launch a new series of quarterly targeted longer - term refinancing operations ( tltro - iii ). they will start in september 2019 and end in march 2021. significant monetary policy stimulus is thus being provided by our forward guidance on the key ecb interest rates, reinforced by the reinvestments of the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the new series of tltros. the governing council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards our inflation aim in a sustained manner. the benefits of our monetary policy measures have been sizeable and tangible. lending rates for euro area firms and households have declined to historic lows and converged across the region, and growth in bank lending volumes has significantly recovered since the beginning of 2014, thereby supporting investment and job creation. according to today ’ s preliminary flash data release provided by eurostat, there are now 9. 2 million more people in employment in the euro area than there were at the end of 2014, just before the ecb announced its expanded asset purchase programme, and 10. 8 million more than in the second quarter of 2013, when the number of people in work fell to its lowest point during the crisis. completing

inflation rate and the subdued prospects for inflation over the medium term? our analysis points to three temporary factors that are acting to push up inflation today but are projected to fade over the course of next year. first, the pandemic initially exerted powerful downward pressure on inflation. in part, this was due to the severe drop in economic activity during 2020 ; in part, some policy measures directly contributed to lower inflation in 2020, especially the temporary vat cut in germany. the economic recovery during 2021 and termination of temporary tax cuts has operated in the opposite direction, temporarily pushing up the inflation rate. in particular, the base effect of unusually - low prices during 2020 has contributed to higher inflation during 2021, but these unusually - low prices will fall out of the inflation calculation ( which compares prices today with prices twelve months ago ) at the end of this year. in terms of individual factors, the reversal of the temporary german vat cut is a quantitatively - important component that will no longer feature in the data in the new year. 1 second, inflation pressures related to bottlenecks can in part be attributed to the unexpectedlystrong european and global recovery from the pandemic shock. in the june 2020 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, it was foreseen that euro area gdp for 2021 would remain 4 percentage points below the 2019 pre - pandemic level ; in the latest september 2021 projections, 1 / 4 bis central bankers'speeches euro area gdp for 2021 is foreseen to run only 1. 8 percentage points below the 2019 level. similarly, at the global level, the june 2020 update to the imf world economic outlook ( w eo ) forecast assessed that world gdp in 2021 would barely exceed the 2019 level ( by 0. 2 percentage points ), whereas the october 2021 w eo puts global output in 2021 at 2. 6 percentage points above the 2019 level. the performance is much stronger than initially expected, which can be attributed to the success of vaccination campaigns and other public health measures, together with extensive policy support around the world. however, a by - product of an unexpectedly - strong recovery is that there have been extensive demand - supply mismatches in the global markets for commodities and manufactured goods, which have been exacerbated by some sector - specific supply disruptions ( including in the semi - conductor industry ). there are also mis - matches in some segments of domestic labour markets, especially in those services sectors that suffered the most from the