miranda source : steve jurvetson, lin - manuel miranda in his role as hamilton. new york, united states. april 20, 2016. retrieved from wikipedia, https : / / en. wikipedia. org / wiki / file : lin - manuel _ miranda _ in _ hamilton. jpg. figure 3. bank of the united states, 1791 - 1811 source : carol m. highsmith, photographer, first bank of the united states, philadelphia, pennsylvania. between 1980 and 2006. retrieved from the library of congress, https : / / www. loc. gov / item / 2011635128. figure 4. bank of the united states, 1816 - 1836 source : second bank of the united states, philadelphia, pennsylvania. retrieved from the u. s. national park service, https : / / www. nps. gov / / common / uploads / photogallery / ner / park / inde / 1a31a6f0 - 155d - 451f - 67dd77cebe8e6603 / 1a31a6f0 - 155d - 451f - 67dd77cebe8e6603. jpg. figure 5. william jennings bryan, democratic party presidential candidate, 1896 source : william robinson leigh, artist ’ s conception of william jennings bryan after the cross of gold speech at the 1896 democratic national convention, mcclure ’ s magazine, april 1900, p. 535. retrieved from wikimedia commons, https : / / commons. wikimedia. org / wiki / file : bryan _ after _ speech. jpg. figure 6. the great financial panic, 1873 source : illustration of the great financial panic - - intersection of nassau and broad streets with wall street - - view of the sub - treasury... on friday, sept. 19th. frank leslie ’ s illustrated newspaper, october 1873. retrieved from the library of congress, http : / / www. loc. gov / pictures / item / 2005676065 /. figure 7. board of governors of the federal reserve system source : staff photographer, eccles building, washington, d. c. retrieved from the federal reserve flickr site, https : / / www. flickr. com / photos / federalreserve / 26088200676. figure 8. twelve federal reserve banks, 1936 source : twelve reserve bank buildings from 1936. retrieved

service costs as a percent of the disposable income of homeowners last year were little changed from 2001. the estimated 10 percent of homeowners'disposable income allocated to mortgage debt service in the third quarter of last year was well below the highs in 1991, though the ratio of homeowners'mortgage debt to their disposable income rose to a record high. refinance and home purchase originations, seasonally adjusted, peaked in the fourth quarter of last year. it is difficult to imagine that pace being maintained in the current quarter. seasonally adjusted applications for refinancings, as reported by the mortgage bankers association, are off their peaks but still impressively high. so are home purchase mortgage applications. this suggests a somewhat less robust market for mortgage originations this quarter. with home price increases now subsiding, and mortgage interest rates no longer declining at last year's impressive pace, some slowdown in the rate of mortgage debt expansion is to be expected. that is likely to be the case for equity extraction from home turnover as well. as i noted earlier, that extraction appears to parallel the realized capital gains on home sales, which mainly reflect the number of existing home sales. home price change, of course, is also a factor, but it is the average change over the length of occupancy - nearly ten years for the typical homeowner - that matters, not recent price trends. similarly, refinancing and the cash - outs associated with them accelerated last year as the decline in mortgage interest rates on new loans far exceeded the modest decline in the average rate on all outstanding regular home mortgages. this wider spread between the current mortgage rate and the rate on outstanding loans, as you all know, markedly increased the incentive to refinance. so any stabilizing of rates on new mortgages would narrow the spread as portfolio rates continue to decline as a consequence of continued refinancing at interest rates still below the portfolio average. a narrowed spread would likely reduce cash - outs, lessening the level of equity extractions from this source. we do not have estimates of total home equity loans beyond the end of last year, but lines of credit at commercial banks - approximately a fourth of total home equity loans - rose during the first 7 weeks of 2003, considerably more than the typical seasonal change. in summary, the frenetic pace of home equity extraction last year is likely to appreciably