track record of price stability. in these circumstances, our approach to the value of sterling needs to strike a different balance from the view we took in the depths of recession. issue 3 : the “ output gap ” and inflation alongside the influence of the international economy and our approach to the value of the pound, the third issue where i have found myself at odds with the majority view on the monetary policy committee is on the influence of the “ output gap ” and spare capacity on the rate of inflation here in the uk. as i mentioned earlier on in this speech, the view that spare the latest ( april 2011 ) cbi industrial trends survey shows 55 % of companies reporting below capacity working, lower than the historic average of 59 %. bis central bankers ’ speeches capacity and the weakness of demand would push down on prices and costs underpinned forecasts that inflation would fall sharply in the wake of the recession. that has not happened in a world where other powerful influences on inflation – from the international economy, the value of the pound and the general pricing climate have operated in a much more inflationary direction. yet the narrative adopted to support the policy position of the mpc, in the committee ’ s minutes and in recent editions of the inflation report, continues to put considerable weight on the downward influence of spare capacity and the “ output gap ”. estimates of the “ output gap ” generally rely on an assessment of the level of economic activity, normally measured by gdp, in relation to a longer run trend which aims to capture the capacity of the economy. that immediately highlights two major problems of using this concept in real time : gdp figures are frequently revised ; and our view of the economy ’ s capacity and its trend rate of growth has to be estimated as it cannot be measured directly. both of these problems are particularly acute in the aftermath of a recession, when early estimates of gdp may be less reliable than normal and when we are more likely to see structural changes in the economy which may change our view of the level of capacity in the economy and its growth rate. on the question of gdp data revisions, i well remember the experience of the early 1990s recovery, when i was working as economics director at the cbi. initial estimates of gdp growth were much weaker than the picture that we now have of that recovery. and we have already started to see something similar happening over this recovery too. the first gdp growth estimate which signalled the economy was coming out of recession – for the final quarter of 2009 – has

kevin greenidge : let hard work be your guiding principle remarks by dr kevin greenidge, governor of the central bank of barbados, at the barbados youth advance corps graduation, 25 august 2023. * * * good day graduands. today, i focus my remarks on being the best you can be. many years ago, i was like you. i was about to finished secondary school having spent one year in fifth form and not entered for any cxc course, and therefore would have left with no certification. i appealed to the principal of my school for a second chance, and he gave it to me. i grasped it, and as they say, the rest is history. back then, i committed to becoming the best i could be, envisaged the possibilities, applied myself, worked hard, and today, i am at the pinnacle of my career as the governor of the central bank of barbados. you can do the same. the programme from which you graduate today gave you that second chance. over the past four months, the national transformation initiative ( nti ) helped the barbados youth advanced corps ( byac ) to school you in letter and report writing. nti exposed you to various experiences and projects to prepare you for the technical and vocational training opportunities you will pursue next. and of major significance, you have designed your vision board, which i hope you will use to guide your career and help you attain success. the transitional literacy course has equipped you with the skills necessary to pursue higher learning at the samuel jackman prescod institute of technology, the barbados community college, the barbados institute of management and productivity ( bimap ), or the vocational training board. to become the best at whatever career path you choose, you must build on the foundation that the national transformation initiative and the barbados youth advanced corps laid for you. what is required, though, to solidify that foundation? the answer is simple. you must do a few things to be the best carpenter, cosmetologist, or artisan. topping the list are setting goals to achieve your vision, working hard, remaining focused, and avoiding distractions. you've drafted your vision boards already. that's a great start. now, you must set your goals to achieve those visions. goal setting helps you to chart a path and to map out how you will travel that road to your desired destination. having goals motivates you, gives you a sense of purpose, and helps you