carlo azeglio ciampi writings in the nuova antologia speech by deputy governor of the bank of italy luigi federico signorini florence regional branch 12 march 2018 introduction 1. on the day carlo azeglio ciampi was born in livorno, on 9 december 1920, the italian daily corriere della sera featured, among other things, a political and institutional maelstrom and two important economic questions. the former was related to the government ’ s ‘ resolution to apply the treaty of rapallo ’. under the treaty, the city of fiume ( hotly contested by italy and yugoslavia in the wave of nationalist sentiment that followed the end of the european war and the dissolution of the hapsburg empire ) was to become an independent state. gabriele d ’ annunzio ’ s self - proclaimed italian regency of carnaro was opposed to this solution, and called instead for fiume ’ s annexation by italy. a few weeks later, the ‘ bloody christmas ’ clashes signalled the end of the regency under the guns of the italian navy and army, sent by the last giolitti government. as for the two economic questions, one regarded the regulated price of bread : this had been set during the war but by 1920 had become unrealistic owing to wartime inflation and had to be heavily subsidized, creating a gaping hole in the public accounts. the abolition of the subsidy was entrusted by giolitti to marcello soleri, under secretary for food provisioning and consumption, and was approved in february 1921. although it met with strong opposition at the time from several political parties ( as reported in the corriere ), the measure made a substantial contribution to rebalancing the budget. the second question was the subject of a second - page article written by luigi luzzatti, entitled ‘ nuova carta moneta? ’ ( ‘ new paper money? ’ ), which allowed the newspaper to highlight the ‘ deep concern about an increase in money in circulation which is having noticeable effects on prices and exchange rates ’. ‘ if prices and exchange rates go up, the money press is to blame ’, observed the columnist. 2. back then these issues recurred so frequently that perhaps traces could be found on any given date. i quote them nevertheless, because it is still somewhat amusing to think that if one picks up the corriere published on the day ciampi was born, one finds references to the three lo

of the fed - - the members of the board of governors and the 12 reserve bank presidents. the board has a maximum of seven members, but at present, two slots are empty. all of the federal reserve bank presidents take part in the discussion, although only five of them have the vote at any one time. 3 each board member or reserve bank president has his or her own way of preparing for those meetings. in the case of the reserve bank presidents, these preparations can include consultations with their boards of directors, business contacts in their districts, market experts, and other sources. written materials are distributed to all fomc participants in advance of the meeting. 4 the most extensive of these materials is called the tealbook, a two - part document prepared by the board ’ s staff and distributed to board members and reserve bank presidents. 5 the first part of the tealbook contains a summary and analysis of recent economic and financial developments in the united states and foreign economies, the for example, the fomc has discussed unconventional monetary policies ( large - scale asset purchases and forward guidance ), its plans for the withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation and reducing the size of the federal reserve ’ s balance sheet ( termed “ normalization ” ), and the operational framework used to implement monetary policy. the president of the federal reserve bank of new york has a permanent vote on the fomc, and 4 of the remaining 11 reserve bank presidents serve one - year terms on a rotating basis. for additional details on the preparations for and organization of fomc meetings, see duke ( 2010 ). before june 2010, the tealbook was two separate books known as the greenbook and the bluebook, corresponding roughly to the first and second parts of the tealbook, respectively. - 3board staff ’ s economic forecast, and dozens of tables and figures. the board staff ’ s baseline forecast of the most likely path for the economy over the next several years is a judgmental one, built by staff economists using their expertise on particular sectors together with econometric models and other inputs. in addition to this baseline judgmental forecast, the staff provides model - based simulations of a number of alternative scenarios or risks - - for instance, if the price of oil were to be lower, the u. s. dollar stronger, or wage growth higher than envisioned in the baseline projection. these scenarios are generated using one or more of the board ’ s macroeconomic models. the tealbook also