bankers'speeches inflation expectations from the survey of consumer expectations. in particular, they looked at longer - term inflation expectations and found that expectations of inflation five years in the future have barely budged over the past two years. 2 this evidence is reassuring that, despite the highly unusual swings in inflation over the past year and a half, inflation expectations are still well anchored. in addition, measures of underlying inflation that are not overly influenced by the effects of the pandemic have remained stable. with underlying inflation and inflation expectations running at levels consistent with our 2 percent longer - run goal, i expect inflation to decline to about two percent next year as the pandemicrelated effects on prices subside. still, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the inflation outlook, and i will be watching the data on inflation and inflation expectations closely. new york conditions these numbers tell the story of the economic outlook on a national level. but the new york economy faces unique challenges, and they may be more serious relative to other parts of the country. new york state ’ s unemployment rate is well above the nationwide rate, and new york city ’ s is almost double the national figure. private sector employment in the state is down nearly 10 percent, with the hard - hit leisure and hospitality sector down 27 percent. that said, the most recent data show signs of improvement : employment across the state grew at roughly double the nationwide pace in august, with outsized growth in new york city. looking ahead, i expect the new york economy to continue to strengthen along with the national economy over the next few years. the fed ’ s policy response this brings me to the fed ’ s policy response. in its december 2020 statement, the fomc said it would continue asset purchases at the current pace until it sees substantial further progress toward our maximum employment and price stability goals. 3 given what i have said, i think it ’ s clear that we have made substantial further progress on achieving our inflation goal. there has also been very good progress toward maximum employment. assuming the economy continues to improve as i anticipate, a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. it is important to remember that even after the asset purchases end, the stance of monetary policy will continue to support a strong and full economic recovery and sustained attainment of 2 percent average inflation. in particular, the fomc has indicated that it will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level

john c williams : business more like usual remarks ( via videoconference ) by mr john c williams, president and chief executive officer of the federal reserve bank of new york, at the economic club of new york, 27 september 2021. * * * as prepared for delivery thank you for that kind introduction. it ’ s a great honor for me to be addressing members of the economic club of new york today, the first time i ’ m doing so since becoming the club ’ s chair. today ’ s event was scheduled to take place in person, and we were really looking forward to the opportunity to come together. but predicting the future is nearly impossible, and here we are meeting virtually. i say it ’ s “ nearly ” impossible to predict the future because i plan to share my outlook for the u. s. economy with you all over the next few minutes! we ’ re not the only ones that expected business to be “ more like usual ” at this point in time. but the direct and indirect effects of the virus continue to shape the way we live our lives, do our work, and come together with others. on top of that, signs of the delta variant ’ s impact are showing up in the incoming data, contributing to more uncertainty about the future. business, in fact, is unusual in many ways, and continues to reflect the extraordinary nature of the pandemic. in my remarks today i ’ ll share more about how these effects relate to the economic outlook for the nation and right here in new york. i ’ ll also go into some detail about the outlook for inflation. finally, i ’ ll discuss what this means for monetary policy and the road ahead. before i continue, i need to give the standard fed disclaimer that the views i express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal open market committee ( fomc ) or others in the federal reserve system. economic outlook i ’ ll start by saying that the headline of our economic story is good news : the recovery continues to show solid momentum. but the subheading is that we ’ ll need to be patient. even with the strong pace of growth we experienced much of this year, a full recovery from the pandemic will take time to complete. the adjustment to rapidly changing circumstances, along with a resurgence in covid - 19 cases, is affecting consumer spending and jobs, sustaining supply bottlenecks in sectors such as autos, and delaying a full reopening