our economy requires. for 2014, a central scenario has been outlined in which the factors that have been affecting domestic demand progressively slacken. it is projected that the processes of adjustment in the economy, and most particularly the redressing of private - sector debt and the ongoing fiscal consolidation, will continue to influence the pace of recovery of demand and activity ; but, at the same time, the reduction in uncertainty and the culmination of the restructuring of credit institutions, along with their improved results, will lay the foundations for improving financial conditions for the resident sectors. this outlook of progressive re - balancing of the external and domestic components of demand is not free from uncertainty. in particular, while the likelihood of fresh bouts of instability in the euro area has lessened significantly, this cannot be ruled out completely in the future. moreover, should growth in certain emerging regions be checked more sharply than is currently projected, this might have consequences for spanish exports, which in recent years have been increasingly underpinned by these markets? in this respect, the potential reduction in the degree of monetary expansion in the united states might significantly affect the emerging countries, in their capital movements and in their exchange rates, most particularly latin america. the state budget for 2014 it is against this macroeconomic background that the discussions on the draft budget for 2014 are framed. i shall first refer to the forecasts for the end of the current budgetary year and the macroeconomic projections for the coming year. as regards 2013, the revised figure for the overall general government balance, in national accounts terms, has been released for the second quarter. it shows a deficit of 2. 8 % of gdp, excluding the effect of the public assistance to financial institutions, compared with the figure of 3 % recorded in the same period a year earlier, marking an improvement of 0. 2 pp of gdp. more updated figures ( to august ) have also been released for overall general government, bis central bankers ’ speeches excluding local government. the cumulative deficit to august is estimated to stand at 4. 8 % of gdp. as indicated by the european commission in its autumn projections and having regard to the budget outturn in the first half of 2013, meeting the budget deficit target of 6. 5 % is achievable. however, as the commission has stressed, there are risks of slippage arising from the weakness shown by revenue, meaning that, to meet the target, revenue will have to pick up in the closing months of the year. the effort involved in

to only 0. 15 %. given that the aim of new long - term injections is to stimulate bank loans to the non - financial private sector, their availability has been linked to both the stock and the flows of lending extended by banks to households and firms, although loans for house purchase have been excluded from these calculations. the non - conventional measures agreed in september also include two new asset purchase programmes, the details of which will be addressed in the next ecb governing council meetings. the eurosystem may acquire financial instruments derived from securitisations that meet various requirements. they must be simple, transparent and based on loans to households and firms in the euro area. the programme is expected to be able to contribute to reinvigorating the securitisations market, a major market that has been greatly affected by the crisis. furthermore, this month the eurosystem will set in motion a new programme to purchase mortgage - backed securities, or securities backed by other loans held by banks, i. e. in spain ’ s case, our various types of covered bonds. following the approval of this set of measures, the ecb has reiterated its commitment, unanimously backed by its governing council, to resort if necessary to further unconventional measures. developments in and outlook for the spanish economy in contrast to the weakening of the recovery in the euro area, the momentum of the spanish economy in 2014 has progressively firmed. gdp rose in the second quarter by 0. 6 %, marking four consecutive quarters of increases. the latest figures point to this trajectory continuing over the rest of the year, albeit at a more measured pace. that will allow the yearon - year rate of change in gdp to draw close to 2 % in the final quarter, a rate at around which the spanish economy may be expected to grow on average in 2015 as a whole. the growth rate of employment during the first half of the year exceeded forecasts across the board in the productive sectors, albeit more intensely so in market services. our expectation is that this pattern of job creation and of gradual reduction in the unemployment rate will continue, although perhaps somewhat more slowly. bis central bankers ’ speeches national demand is playing a key role in this phase of recovery. among the factors driving it are, first, the progressive normalisation of financial conditions brought about by the eurosystem ’ s expansionary monetary policy and the reduction in the degree of financial fragmentation in the area. favourable labour market developments are also playing a notable part in kick -