james mcandrews : rising household borrowing remarks by mr james mcandrews, executive vice president and director of research of the federal reserve bank of new york, before the cfa society of stamford, stamford, connecticut, 5 march 2014. * * * accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech or on the federal reserve bank of new york ’ website. good evening. it ’ s a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak with you today on the subject of the economy, and especially the household sector. as is always the case, my remarks reflect my own opinions, not those of the federal reserve bank of new york, or the federal reserve system. national economic conditions from the end of the great recession in mid - 2009 through mid - 2013, real gross domestic product ( gdp ), or the aggregate value, after adjusting for inflation, of all the goods and services produced within the borders of the united states, grew at a rather tepid 2¼ percent annual rate. then, in the second half of 2013, the pace of growth moved up a full percentage point to around 3¼ percent. roughly half of this increase in the growth rate of real gdp stemmed from a strengthening of consumer spending. while i will discuss the factors behind this improvement in consumer spending in more detail in what follows, the main driver appears to be the substantial stabilization in household balance sheets that has occurred over the past few years. household net worth has rebounded from its levels after financial crisis and ensuing recession because of increases in asset values and decreases in liabilities. in fact, the financial obligation burden of the aggregate household sector, or long - term financial obligations expressed as a percentage of disposable income, is now the lowest it has been since the early 1980s. in addition to the firming in consumer spending, growth of exports was quite strong over the second half of last year. following a few years of lackluster performance, economic growth among our major trading partners improved, providing a boost to employment and output in our manufacturing sector. in addition, a secular trend of increasing energy exports and declining energy imports is now providing steady improvement in our trade balance. another contributing factor is that federal fiscal restraint lessened substantially over the second half of 2013. this development is in sharp contrast to the first half of the year, when the payroll tax cut expired, tax rates on higher - income households were raised, a series of taxes associated with the affordable care act took effect, and owing to the se

guy quaden : crisis management at cross - roads closing speech by mr guy quaden, governor of the national bank of belgium, at the joint societe universitaire europeenne de recherches financieres ( suerf ), centre for european policy studies ( ceps ) and belgian financial forum conference, brussels, 16 november 2009. * * * ladies and gentlemen, more than two years after the us subprime crisis triggered world - wide financial turbulence and one year after the collapse of lehman brothers exacerbated the crisis dramatically, the title of this conference rightly suggests that crisis management is at a crossroads. indeed, the exceptional measures taken by central banks and governments do appear to be achieving their objectives. it seems now that the most severe financial crisis since the 1930s, which provoked a free fall in world trade and industrial production over two quarters, will not develop into another great depression, even if its toll in terms of subdued economic activity and higher unemployment is not yet over. crisis prevention will soon have to take over from crisis management. this will require both a timely exit from the exceptional measures taken to stabilise the financial system and the economy, and the implementation of fundamental reforms to remedy the structural defects exposed by the crisis. 1. timely exit let me turn firstly to the issue of a timely exit. the policy reaction to the financial crisis was very decisive. central banks were the first to react in august 2007, by providing ample liquidity. after the sudden aggravation of the crisis in september 2008, they reduced interest rates to unprecedentedly low levels and took some non - conventional measures to support bank lending and the financial markets. governments rescued systemically important financial institutions, through capital injections and asset purchases, and supported bank funding, through guarantees. they also launched fiscal stimulus packages. in order to consolidate the recovery, to avoid nurturing the seeds of future crises and to promote sustainable development, these short - term measures have to be unwound at the right time and pace. the effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on the confidence in its sustainability, and it is important to avoid the private debt crisis being followed by a public debt crisis. the burden of fiscal consolidation should not be passed on to the next generations. credible fiscal consolidation programmes have to be set up, and the current outlook should allow the first steps to be taken next year. but let me focus on the eurosystem ’ s monetary policy. too early an exit from the current very accommo