the dampening effect of tight monetary policies implemented globally and restrictive financial conditions on growth has become more salient since the second half of last year. following a gradual decline, global growth weighted by our exports remained flat in the last quarter, compared to the previous reporting period. commodity prices continue to be driven by the outlook and composition of global growth, geopolitical risks, financial conditions, and supply - side factors. commodity prices excluding energy have continued their limited decline since the previous reporting period. over this period, energy commodity prices, in particular natural gas prices, have declined. while oil prices have declined significantly since the previous reporting period, they remain highly volatile in the short term. against this backdrop, the downtrend in global inflation has accelerated in the last quarter of the year owing to energy prices. core inflation in many economies has also been falling in recent months. meanwhile, inflation hovers above the targets globally. although risks are still alive, the fall in inflation is expected to continue over the year. under this inflation outlook, the central banks in advanced economies have indicated that the current level of policy rates is adequate to achieve their inflation targets. the timing and pace of the upcoming rate cuts have become more important. amid the improvement in the inflation outlook, interest rate cuts continue in a number of emerging economies. compared to the previous reporting period, market expectations for the central banks of advanced economies to start cutting interest rates earlier have strengthened. on the other hand, given inflationary risks, it is assessed that central banks will manage the rate - cutting process gradually and that monetary tightness will be maintained across the board. in the last quarter of 2023, the global risk appetite rebounded strongly and portfolio inflows to emerging markets increased. however, since the beginning of this year, portfolio inflows have slowed down as a result of the advanced economy central banks'more cautious forward guidance on interest rate cuts. 2 / 12 bis - central bankers'speeches esteemed guests, now, i would like to present our assessments on the inflation developments in turkiye. first of all, i will discuss the factors that affected inflation and pricing behavior during the tightening process up until the end of 2023. next, i will turn my focus to january, which is characterized by a strong time - dependent price - setting tendency, and hence, differs from other months in this regard. moreover, i will convey our assessments on the factors that will impact inflation in the upcoming period. in the last quarter

durmus yilmaz : press conference for the presentation of the inflation report speech by mr durmus yilmaz, governor of the central bank of the republic of turkey, at the press conference presenting the third issue of the inflation report, central bank of the republic of turkey, ankara, 28 july 2008. * * * distinguished guests and members of the press, welcome to the press conference for the presentation of the third issue of the 2008 inflation report, one of the most important communication tools of the full - fledged inflation - targeting regime that we have been implementing. in this conference, i would like to give you a short summary of our evaluations and the central bank ’ s inflation forecasts in the inflation report which will be posted on our website later today. 1. inflation developments esteemed members of the press, i would like to start with a general assessment of inflation developments in the previous period and share with you the factors impeding the disinflation process in the first half of the year. distinguished guests, in april, both the open letter and the inflation report issued by the central bank of turkey presented a detailed explanation for the factors impeding the disinflation process. the source of inflation has not changed in the past quarter. in the second quarter of 2008, prolonged increases in food, energy and other commodity prices continued to exert significant upward pressures on headline inflation. as a consequence 6. 8 percentage points of the 10. 61 percent annual cpi inflation in july resulted from the direct impact of the rise in food and energy prices ( figure 1 ). figure 1 : contribution to annual cpi inflation core goods services food and energy * tobacco and gold * * 06. 08 05. 08 04. 08 03. 08 02. 08 01. 08 12. 07 11. 07 10. 07 09. 07 08. 07 07. 07 06. 07 05. 07 04. 07 03. 07 02. 07 01. 07 * food and energy : food, non - alcoholic beverages and energy. * * tobacco and gold : alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold. source : turkstat, cbt. food price developments were determinant in inflation in the second quarter of the year. although domestic weather conditions turned more favorable in the first half of 2008, lagged effects of last year ’ s poor harvest and continued elevation in agricultural commodity prices continued to keep processed food inflation at high levels. as a consequence, processed food inflation displayed a cumulative increase of 14.