5 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches these trends are not new. we have been aware of the problems and have discussed measures to address them. the trends will continue, and we should continue our efforts as well. concluding remarks today, i have talked about pivotal events in recent years, especially from a central bank perspective. of course, there are many other issues to be discussed. i am sure that you will cover a wide range of topics at this conference, including issues regarding the framework of a deposit insurance system. the deposit insurance system is a critical safety net not only for the orderly resolution of troubled banks, but also for the stability of the financial system as a whole. the very existence of deposit insurance contributes to maintaining the confidence of depositors and makes banking businesses possible, which inherently involves maturity transformation and liquidity risks. in operating a deposit insurance system, we need to strike a balance between the stability of the financial system and the risk of moral hazard, as this balance will affect the businesses of banks as well as nonbanks. deposit insurance is also relevant to the functions of a central bank, the llr function in particular, as both serve to complement the liquidity of banks. how central banks react at times of stress will affect how the deposit insurance system is designed and operated, and vice versa. the recent events and the underlying trends i have mentioned today pose challenges for both the deposit insurance system and central banks. some are new and some are rather conventional. i know it is a big question. well, i wish i could share my ideas with you, but since time is running out, i will leave further consideration to you. i hope today's discussion will be a steppingstone toward achieving a further enhancement of a deposit insurance system. thank you very much for your attention. 6 / 6 bis - central bankers'speeches

global activity, a stronger growth outlook has consolidated in developed economies together with a slowdown in the emerging world. still, some downward adjustments are being made to the projections for this year, mostly driven by actual first - quarter data, leading to a marginal adjustment in the overall figure. thus, it is expected that in the period 2014 – 2015 our trading partners will grow 3. 7 percent on average, a tenth of a point less than was expected in march. in latin america a less favorable picture emerges. downward revisions in argentina, brazil and mexico stand out in these settings. the price of copper has fluctuated significantly in recent months. after coming close to us $ 3. 15 per pound, it returned to the order of us $ 3. the baseline scenario assumes copper prices of 3. 1 and 2. 9 dollars per pound in 2014 and 2015, respectively. the terms of trade would fall this year slightly less than projected the march ipom, but somewhat deeper in 2015 ( table 1 ). inflation has remained well contained in developed countries, while in emerging markets, particularly in latin america, the short - term outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting the depreciation of latin american currencies in the past year. this, plus the changes in parities mean that foreign dollar inflation this year and next will be somewhat higher than forecast in the last report. the board estimates that in the baseline projection scenario, inflation in chile will remain above 4 percent still for some months, ending 2014 around that figure. in the course of 2015 it will decline further, reaching values around 3 percent in the first half of next year, to stay there until the end of the projection horizon, this time the second quarter of 2016. core inflation, which is now below headline inflation, should also fall in the coming months, hovering around 3 percent as from the first half of 2015 ( figure 7 ). the baseline scenario assumes that the economic slowdown will reduce domestic inflationary pressures, thus helping inflation to return to 3 percent within the forecast horizon. accordingly, the board estimates that this year the economy will grow in the range of 2. 5 to 3. 5 percent, less than foreseen in march ( 3 to 4 percent ). this revision responds to the weakening of domestic - demand - related sectors in the first quarter of this year. private expectations have seen a similar change during the period. according to our economic expectations survey ( ees ), the growth estimate for the year dropped from 3. 7