receding, but one thing last year taught us is that impossible things are possible. as a result of this, global financial markets may well be in for further bumpy rides, not least because market risk indicators such as high - yield corporate bond spreads, the spread on foreign currency emerging market debt, and general equity market volatility – which often reflect investor nervousness – remain low, pointing to a possible dislocation that could understate the downside risk profile to economic growth. nevertheless, as is the norm, markets have moved ahead of ‘ the fact ’, for marvin barth, the politics of rage, 2016, barclays, united kingdom. page 2 of 9 instance pricing in a higher trajectory for us2 economic growth. analysts expect real gdp3 in the us to average 2. 2 % in 2017, 4 more or less in line with the median projection of the federal open market committee ( fomc ). the positive momentum in terms of growth prospects is not confined to the us and is relatively broad - based, particularly when it comes to advanced economies. against a backdrop of an improving growth trajectory, economic policy uncertainty presents a new challenge for the already complex environment in which central banks operate – more so because the actual and expected inflation figures are seemingly on an uptrend. for central banks, who have said for so long that rising inflation is a necessary precursor to ‘ normalising ’ their policies, the macro - financial implications of this increasingly uncertain political environment could complicate monetary policy normalisation. as the forward guidance thresholds are being reached, the question remains whether central banks ( specifically those in europe ) will once again re - emphasise the broader notion of economic slack that may result from the current political landscape as an additional qualitative feature of their policies. the uk5 facing headline inflation that is now above the central bank ’ s official target and, on the other hand, threats to its economic growth is a classic example. the us is in a slightly different position. having gradually lowered the projected path of its policy rate since the time of our previous cocktail function, the fomc changed its course in september 2016 and revised upwards the future path of interest rates that it deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy its dual mandate. the fomc ’ s projections now point to two additional 25 basis point increases in the federal funds rate following the march hike. these expectations are in line with those implied from fed funds

legal impediments to the establishment of a single financial space ; build on the power of collective action by assisting member governments in the articulation and adoption of a macroeconomic transformation programme for eccu member countries consistent with the objectives of the oecs economic union and the eccu eight point stabilisation and growth programme ; and encourage member governments to modernise the public sector in order to enhance efficiency and provide the requisite technical and administrative capacity to achieve the region ’ s economic objectives. the challenge for the bank in these difficult times is to continue to support the strong dollar policy as set out by the monetary council and to establish the environment for the future growth and development of the region. thank you and good night. bis central bankers ’ speeches