to be complemented with the further development and use of models for macro - stress testing and of financial stability indicators. these analytical tools can help monitor, and assess the implications for systemic stability, of risk exposures across institutions and markets, for instance, the common credit exposures of interconnected financial institutions to other firms, sectors or regions ; or the market risk exposures through holdings of securities or common positioning of interconnected institutions in relevant markets ( i. e. potentially leading to so - called “ crowded trades ” ). macro - prudential analysis and supervision focus, by definition, on the monitoring and assessment of systemic risk in the whole financial sector. this risk, which can emerge both during the upswing and the downswing of an economic and financial cycle, reflects the effects of macroeconomic forces and the collective behaviour of institutions and other market participants. central banks, whose primary objective is the preservation of price stability – a necessary though not sufficient condition for the stability of the financial system – and which maintain close links with the money and financial markets in order to perform their monetary policy tasks, are well suited to be the authorities mainly responsible for macro - prudential supervision. in the eu, the ecb and the european system of central banks stand ready to carry out the analytical and statistical work necessary so that the new eu body responsible for macro - prudential supervision can perform its functions effectively. at the same time, the involvement and cooperation of supervisory authorities is also essential. in addition to the proposed participation of the chairpersons of cebs, ceiops and cesr, as well as one representative of the european commission, the heads of national supervisors could be invited to join the national central bank governors as required by the subjects being discussed. appropriate links should also be established between the escb and the proposed european system of financial supervision. these links should contribute, inter alia, to effective information - sharing as well as to providing an additional channel through which the “ output ” of the deliberations of the new eu macro - prudential supervisory body will be communicated to the micro - prudential supervisors and help trigger appropriate policy measures. this could include changes to capital requirements and liquidity buffers in order to respond to identified emerging systemic risk. and this observation brings me to my last two points. the de larosiere group emphasised that once a macro - prudential risk warning has been issued “ it must be clear to everyone who should act and according to which

philipp hildebrand : overview of the swiss and global economy introductory remarks by mr philipp hildebrand, chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, at the half - yearly media news conference, berne, 16 june 2011. * * * the swiss national bank ( snb ) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. the target range for the three - month libor remains at 0. 0 – 0. 75 %, and the snb intends to keep the libor within the lower part of the target range at around 0. 25 %. the global economic recovery is continuing, even if the outlook has dampened somewhat in the past few weeks. the level of capacity utilisation in the swiss economy is rising. despite the strong appreciation of the swiss franc, the economy continues to benefit from robust international demand. however, margins in the export industry are coming under increasing pressure. for 2011, the snb is maintaining its forecast of real growth in swiss gdp of around 2 %. overall, however, downside risks predominate. these include, in particular, the debt problems in the euro area periphery. in addition, high deficits require several countries in various parts of the world to undertake fiscal consolidation measures, economic fragility notwithstanding. the recent commodity price increase weighs on global economic growth and poses upside risks to inflation. in switzerland, the main risks remain, on the one hand, the effects of the strong swiss franc on the export industry and, on the other, the danger of overheating in the real estate sector. until the beginning of 2012, the path of the snb ’ s conditional inflation forecast lies above that of the previous quarter ’ s forecast. this is attributable to the assumption of higher oil prices compared to the previous quarter and somewhat higher import prices. assuming an unchanged three - month libor of 0. 25 % over the forecast horizon, the snb expects average inflation rates of 0. 9 % for 2011, 1. 0 % for 2012 and 1. 7 % for 2013. over the course of 2012, the path of the new forecast is lower than that of march because of the latest appreciation of the swiss franc and the slightly slower development of international growth. towards the end of the forecast period, inflation rises briskly and exceeds the upper bound of 2 %. this shows that the current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon without compromising price stability in the long term. due