samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In 2016, the Executive Board’s capacity was strengthened by the appointment of a second deputy governor and an increase in the number of board members. At the end of 2016, the cumulative value of transfers to the GPFG was approximately equal to the cumulative return on the fund, reflecting the fund’s solid performance over time. Last year, the return on the GPFG was 6.9 percent.1 Over the period since inception, the return has averaged 5.7 percent. Adjusting for inflation and management costs, this gives an average real return of 3.8 percent. Developments in international financial markets and the growth outlook for the global economy suggest that the expected real return ahead will be somewhat lower than has been the case in recent years. The GPFG closely tracks the benchmark index; it is invested across a broad range of countries and markets. This strategy has so far generated a solid return within the defined risk limits. Restrictions imposed on the fund’s scope for investment, or instructions that disregard the tradeoff between return and risk, will limit the fund’s potential to achieve solid performance over time. In the execution of our management assignment, it is important that Norges Bank’s role is that of financial investor. It is crucial to the GPFG’s reputation in investee countries that the fund is not perceived as a political instrument. Norges Bank aims to be at the forefront of global efforts in the area of responsible investment.

Øystein Olsen: Management of the Government Pension Fund Global Introductory statement by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting, Oslo, 2 May 2017. * * * In 2016, it was 20 years since the Ministry of Finance made the first capital transfer to the Government Petroleum Fund, as the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) was aptly named at the time. This transfer marked the start of a transformation of petroleum wealth in the form of oil and gas in the ground into financial assets invested outside Norway. Since the first capital transfer was made, the GPFG has grown considerably, to more than 2.5 times the size of GDP. The year 2016 also saw the first net withdrawal from the GPFG. Ahead, the value of the GPFG will therefore, to a greater extent than previously, depend on the return on the fund’s investments. The period of steady growth in the GPFG as a share of the economy is now probably over. The key variables determining the GPFG’s long-term performance have been specified by the Ministry of Finance and approved by the Storting. For its part, Norges Bank has developed its management assignment in accordance with the fund’s growth and in line with the owner’s mandate. At the same time, Norges Bank has focused on its role as advisor in the further development of the fund’s investment strategy.
When evaluating possible packages of quantitative reform, an important validation point for the PRA is whether the resultant liability values, including the risk margin, are adequate relative to the transfer values implied by actual buy-out transactions. If current liability valuations were to be insufficient to fund these observable transfer costs, then the balance sheet would lack the resilience that it would be expected to have under Solvency II and a key safeguard of policyholder protection would be put at risk. In other words, we could no longer be confident enough that if an insurer failed in the future, its liabilities could be safely transferred to a third party. The long-term security of policyholder benefits would then be in question. The PRA is continuing its work to assess the extent to which different reform combinations lead to an adequate transfer value being achieved and see this as a key validation tool when assessing the merits of any package. Page 8  Regulation I now come to the final R – regulation – and want to focus remarks today specifically on the work to reform the existing regulatory framework for insurers – Solvency II. The interlinkages between the first three Rs I have covered help explain why such regulatory reform needs to be considered as a package: changes in one part of our regulatory and supervisory framework have consequences for others.

Of course, there is no reason to ban books, but the unrest caused by this book is actually a positive thing. It is a sign of changing times, enhanced understanding, and diminishing prejudice. When that book was published in the mid-20th century, hardly anyone thought of it as being hurtful or offensive in any way. But now we see that it can indeed be those things, and this is why the publication of the book and the ensuing discussion are a positive indication of new times and changed perspective. Actually, recent decades have seen a fervent effort to recast well-known terms and names for all sorts of phenomena so as to avoid injuring those who, either temporarily or for the long term, might be vulnerable. This is also positive, though some of these philanthropic efforts have gone a bit too far in their enthusiasm. Another phenomenon we see is that newly coined terms soon become cloaked in a sort of semi-divinity in Iceland – like the term “international expansion,” which no one dares oppose lest he be accused of being an anachronism, devoid of a sense of “vision,” as it is now called, and of not knowing when the time is ripe for action. Upon closer scrutiny, the term “international expansion” seems to be nothing more than investment abroad – together with utilisation of knowledge and talent, of course.
If some weight is given to the final two explanations, the risks to future wage growth and inflation would be skewed to the downside, not only in the short-term but at longer horizons too.11 (b)  Inflation expectations  Chart 18: Projection for wage growth and inflation, assuming a starting level of slack of 2%  Percentage change oya  6 4 2 0 -2 -4  Wages - February IR projections Wages - more slack Inflation - February IR projections Inflation - more slack  A complementary explanation for the wage puzzle, which goes in the same Source: ONS and Bank calculations. direction, is that inflation expectations have shifted downwards. To the extent these weaker expectations shape firms’ wagebargaining and price-setting behaviour, this would impart downwards persistence into wage and inflation dynamics. There is an array of inflation expectations measures covering different sectors – households, companies, financial markets – and horizons – short and longer term. All of these measures have fallen over the course of the past two years, as actual inflation has fallen, though often by differing amounts. Among households, one-year-ahead inflation expectations, as reported by Citigroup, have fallen by 120bp over the past year. At the five to ten year horizon, they have fallen by around 30bp (Chart 19). Shorter-term expectations are around 1.5 percentage points, and longerterm expectations around 1 percentage point, below their pre-crisis averages.

03.03.2020  Challenges of population ageing from a central bank perspective Public Lecture at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Geneva Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good afternoon. Let me start by thanking Professor Ugo Panizza for his invitation to participate in this public lecture organised by the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies. I cannot think of a better place to share some thoughts on population ageing and the challenges it poses, in particular from a central bank standpoint. In my talk I will first describe the process of demographic transformation the world is undergoing. Next, I will shed some light on the challenges that population ageing poses to macroeconomic developments and policies. Finally, I will focus on the implications of an ageing society for the financial system. The demographic transformation  In recent decades, countries around the globe have been experiencing population ageing, a phenomenon poised to transform the societies and the economies in which we live. Currently, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects, 1 in 11 people in the world is over 65, up from 1 in 20 people back in 1950. Indeed, thirty years hence, projections point to the percentage of people over 65 reaching 16% of the population, in other words 1 in 6 people. The figures are quite telling. Actually, the world demographic structure no longer resembles a population pyramid. Rather, it is turning into a slender tower.
Zamani Abdul Ghani: Malaysia - an investment destination Speech by Mr Zamani Abdul Ghani, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Investors’ Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 22 June 2005. *  *  *  Bismillahirrahmanirrahim Your Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalamualaikum warahmatullah hiwabarakatuh and good morning, First of all, allow me to welcome all of you to this conference on "Malaysia: An Investment Destination" held in conjunction with the 30th IDB Board of Governors' Meeting. We are most heartened that there are representatives here this morning from more than one hundred global financial institutions and from over thirty countries. I would like to welcome all of you to Malaysia especially those who are here for the first time. I hope you have had a good rest after a journey from your respective countries because we have a very special program waiting for you. Indeed it is a great honour to be given the privilege to host this historic conference. The theme for the conference "Malaysia: An Investment Destination" is a fitting choice as we would highlight to you a wide range of investment opportunities available for you in Malaysia. This theme is most appropriate given a fast changing global and regional financial landscape, driven by financial liberalization and consolidation, economic transformation and more discerning and demanding investors. Ladies and gentlemen, We will do our best to ensure that this conference will be rewarding and useful for you.

The launching of these indices marks yet another milestone in the development of the Malaysian capital market. As you are well aware, credible and transparent indices are very significant market infrastructure to raise the awareness and interest of investors. This will bode well for our aspiration to broaden and deepen the bond market in Malaysia. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to remind you that both the Day One and Day Two programs promise to be eventful. I know the very conducive environment for shopping at the Kuala Lumpur City Center or KLCC can be very tempting for some of us. But please resist that temptation for a while and wait until the conference is over. Then please, by all means savour the sights and sounds of Malaysia. On this note, I wish you all a rewarding and productive conference. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 49/2005
In addition, it made our communication better aligned with our analytical framework and with theory. [Chart: Our interest rate forecast is conditional] Our forecast for the key policy rate 9 is presented in a panel together with forecasts for inflation and the output gap. The chart shows the forecasts in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, published just two weeks ago. There is substantial uncertainty associated with the projections, as illustrated by empirically based fan charts. The fan chart for the policy rate also illustrates the conditionality of the forecast: Although we control the key interest rate, the forecast for the interest rate is conditional on the outcomes for other variables, which are uncertain. [Chart: The system for monetary policy analysis and forecasting] When we decided to publish our own interest rate forecast, more transparency and documentation were required regarding our models. Our core policy model, NEMO (Norwegian Economy MOdel), is used as a starting point to derive our interest rate forecast. Over time, we have also established an apparatus for nowcasting 10 in order to steadily improve our assessment of initial conditions. In addition we collect information about the current economic situation from our regional network of business contacts. A set of models are used for cross checks and the assessment of exogenous assumptions. Our core policy model NEMO is a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The model has many features that are similar to corresponding models in other central banks.

12 On this occasion, our new interest rate forecast just confirmed what the  12  6  Norges Bank’s forecasts of market rates are calculated as a forecast of the key policy rate plus an estimated 3-month interbank risk premium. Both are given as quarterly averages. BIS central bankers’ speeches  market had already learned and expected from our reaction pattern. In such a case, the market interest rate path works as an automatic stabiliser: If the market expects the outlook for the economy to change, and it – correctly – anticipates the central bank’s reaction to it, the appropriate tightening or loosening will be reflected in market rates even before any action is taken. The example illustrates an important point: By being transparent and by regularly and over time providing information about the revisions of the forecasts, economic agents are kept up to date with the central bank’s reaction pattern. Since the world changes, our interest rate forecast may at times come as somewhat of a surprise. And in situations where we observe that market participants are not well enough informed about our reaction pattern, we do not hesitate to surprise the market. The huge shock to the international – and hence the Norwegian – economy during the financial crisis in 2008 may serve as an example. In this case, we were able to guide the market and affect expectations when we presented a new interest rate forecast.
It hosts one of the most developed capital markets in continental Europe, four global banks, the first insurance and asset management industry, a leading bond market, the largest commercial paper market with NEU-CP and the largest private equity investor in continental Europe. In addition, French financial authorities, including the Banque de France, are working together to facilitate the dissemination of sound and safe financial innovations and fostering the scaling up of sustainable finance. Green finance in particular is one of our priorities, and this is the reason why, at the One Planet Summit last December, the Banque de France launched the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), together with central banks and supervisors from all over the world. Moreover, a number of international banks have decided to transfer the bulk of their market activities to Paris, and Japanese financial institutions will always be welcome in Paris. 2. Beyond Europe, our collective questions Let me turn to the global questions that we have to address together, starting with Japan and France. I guess our views are very close here. There are increasing tensions in the global environment, starting with protectionism. Beyond the direct trade policy shock resulting from a rise in import tariffs, two factors at least may amplify the decline in global GDP: a decline in investment demand caused by firms’ falling business confidence due to uncertainty, and a rise in the financing cost of capital due to an increase in actual or perceived borrower risk.

In our most recent forward guidance we have said that we will maintain our policy interest rates at current levels – including our negative deposit facility rate – until at least through the summer of 2019; Our fourth instrument is the provision of liquidity and credit to banks. The second series of TLTROs are still outstanding, as is FRFA. Such operations could be considered again – possibly with different terms – if warranted. So our quartet will shortly become a trio but the tune will remain strong. The score, however, will change over time and we should continue to play in a harmonious way. In sequence: in my view, we should reduce the rate of reinvestment only after the first increase in interest rates. And so, we are not obliged to rush, as early as at our December meeting, to set out the precise length of our reinvestment period. We should also play the trio in synergy, I would even say in symphony. 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Like any orchestra, we need to be able to adapt the normalisation of our monetary policy tempo (allegro or andante) and intensity, according to economic data. In short, we are very clear about our objective – normalisation following non-standard policies – and about our sequence, but we should remain very pragmatic along our path. Another and somewhat related challenge – as monetary policy cannot be the only game in town – is the continuation of structural reforms in countries where they are needed.
Moral hazard may be related to single institutions that take on too much risk. In these cases, it is manageable. Central bank measures are formulated in such a way that shareholders, management and staff, and probably also lenders, suffer substantial losses. There is no such thing as comprehensive insurance. It is more complicated when banks herd with other banks in taking on excessive risk. This herd behaviour was described by John M. Keynes in 1931: “A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him.” 4 Note that a banker’s reputation might thus be intact, although not her job or assets. The management of the Nordic banking crisis also showed that it is possible to respond in order to reduce moral hazard, i.e. reduce the risk of a repetition of the herd behaviour that led to the crisis. Expectations of a slowdown as a result of falling house prices in the US have resulted in some increase in credit premia in Norway as well. Equity prices on the Oslo Stock Exchange fell considerably during the turbulence, but have recently picked up again somewhat. The spread of market turbulence to Norwegian financial institutions is a pure contagion effect. Surveys by Kredittilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) show that Norwegian banks are not directly exposed to losses related to the US subprime market.

It must be noted that the above-cited initiatives, formalised in the relevant national strategy, have been substantially supported by renowned international institutions such as the World Bank, the European Central Bank, and central banks from EU countries. Hence, let me now extend my sincere appreciation to these institutions for their support, and to their distinguished representatives who will share with you today their experience in the development of retail payment systems market. From the perspective of communication and cooperation, the regional cooperation and sharing of experiences is deemed as very important and fruitful. As a result of market development and cultural characteristics and financial education level in the countries of our region, experience sharing assumes particular importance, as it may contribute significantly to achieving the goals more effectively. Last but not least, another development is the joint initiative of the Bank of Albania, Ministry of Finance and Economy, and Minister of State for Diaspora for a higher attention related to attracting and effectively using remittances, as a component of retail payments. At the international level, remittances make a significant contribution to the economy and welfare of the people, and are considered as accelerators to financial inclusion. The Bank of Albania, therefore, in addition to the aimed developments in the national strategy for reforming the retail payment systems, is engaged in preparing an annual publication on remittances.
In the event that the downwards risks I have mentioned weaken the inflation outlook over the medium term more fundamentally than we currently project, we would not hesitate to act. Should more monetary policy impulse become necessary. The ECB is determined to use all available instruments to achieve its mandate over the medium term. As for potential risks to financial stability, we do not see them materialising at present but we will naturally be monitoring them closely. Over the past two years, national authorities across Europe have been active in developing and implementing macroprudential policy measures but their effectiveness still has to be tested. Before addressing my second topic, let me mention Greece again. The comprehensive agreement that has been reached involved a long and complication discussion. But if, as we all hope, the new programme is completely  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  implemented, it will put Greece in a strong position to grow again and to reap the full benefits of participating in our common currency. The negotiations over the summer once again confirmed that Europe’s institutional framework is not yet commensurate with the requirements of sharing a single currency. A more complete union is necessary. From the ECB’s perspective, two elements are of particular importance. First, despite the best efforts of everyone involved, the crisis has revealed the need for a political centre to economic and monetary union.

Yves Mersch: Challenges for completing Europe’s economic and monetary union Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the MNI Connect event, Singapore, 13 October 2015. *  *  *  Over the past few months, Europe has faced two exceptional challenges. First, there was the new adjustment programme for Greece. And second, there has been the large influx of refugees, a challenge that is very far from the competences of the European Central Bank (ECB). Though very different in nature, these two events offer a common lesson for future challenges that we will collectively face: that Europe is strong only when it acts on the basis of solidarity and cooperation. I would like to talk about two further topics of importance today: first, the ECB’s assessment of recent economic developments and their implications for our monetary policy stance; and second, the necessity for completing Europe’s economic and monetary union. Over the summer, industrial production and other indicators of economic activity in the euro area have shown signs of resilience. Yet at the same time, the macroeconomic environment has become more challenging. The ECB’s latest macroeconomic projections indicate a weaker economic recovery and a slower increase in inflation rates than was expected earlier in the year. Inflation will remain close to zero in the very near term, before rising again towards the end of the year.