samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Inflation is measured as the CPIF and before 1987 as the CPI excluding interest rates. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. 13 [15]  Figure 5. Central banks have reacted relatively quickly and unison Policy rates  Increases so far this year 4  3  2  1  0 BoC  FED  BoE  RB  ECB  NB  Note. Per cent and percentage points. Sources: National central banks. Figure 6. In a good scenario, the Riksbank does not need to make very large interest rate hikes Real policy rate  Nominal policy rate  Note. Per cent. The real policy rate is the Riksbank’s expected real interest rate, calculated as a quarterly mean value of the Riksbank’s policy rate forecast one year ahead minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. As the real interest rate is a forward-looking variable, the outcomes are also based on forecasts. The outcomes are calculated on the basis of the most recently published forecasts at that point in time. Source: The Riksbank. 14 [15]  Figure 7. Favourable development during the inflation-targeting period Yield differential against Germany  Real wages  Note. Percentage points and index, 1970 = 100. The interest rate differential against Germany is for 10-year government bonds. Real wages are deflated with CPI and the dot refers to the outcome for Jan-Sep 2022. Sources: Macrobond, the National Mediation Office, the OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. 15 [15]

How much central bank reserves the private banks had depended, among other things, on how much bank deposits they had on their books, related to the reserve requirements the Federal Reserve applied. The banks’ demand for reserves then determined how much bonds the Fed was obliged to purchase to steer the interest rates to the desired level. This led to the Fed already having a substantial portfolio of government bonds before the financial crisis. Since the level of interest rates in many countries has ended up close to the lower bound, most central banks around the world have made significantly greater purchases of financial assets with the aim of making monetary policy more expansionary. Longer market rates can be divided up into the sum of future expected short-term interest rates plus a premium. If the markets are not frictionless, the size of this premium may partly depend on the relative supply of a certain bond, which is to say the outstanding stock in the hands of the private sector. If the central bank purchases a significant proportion of the stock, the price of the remaining bonds can therefore rise and interest rates thereby fall. When the Riksbank purchases bonds, liquidity is injected into the market – the investor swaps the bond for deposits in a bank and the amount of central bank reserves in the banking system as a whole increases. How effective quantitative easing is depends on how investors and bankers use this liquidity.
Confidence has risen in both the household and corporate sectors in Sweden, and there are some signs that unemployment is falling. In the euro area, GDP increased in the second quarter, after six quarters in a row of falling GDP. Here, too, the confidence indicators are giving more positive signals. However, one must remember that the economies still have a long way to go to reach a normal status. GDP growth and inflation are at low levels in both Sweden and the euro area. And there are still large downside risks for economic developments. In the euro area, the weak public sector finances and problems in the banks’ balance sheets have scarcely improved in recent months. In the United States, the full effects of the sequester have not yet been realised, and there is also uncertainty over how the debt ceiling will be raised during the autumn. Growth rates in large emerging markets like China and India have fallen, albeit from very high levels. Previously, international capital has tended to move towards emerging markets as interest rates have been low in the more developed economies. However, as yields on US government bonds have been rising since the spring, the capital flows have changed direction. The outflow of capital means that exchange rates are weakening, which may improve the countries’ international competitiveness and contribute to maintaining their high level of economic activity.

Ardian Fullani: Overview of Albania’s latest monetary and economic developments and outlook Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, on the Monetary Policy Decision of the Bank of Albania’s Supervisory Council, Tirana, 30 April 2014. *  *  *  Today, on April 30, 2014, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania considered and approved the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Given Albania’s latest monetary and economic developments and discussions on their outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged, at 2.75%. The Council deems that inflationary pressures on the economy remain subdued. Under these circumstances, the monetary policy will continue to be stimulating in the period ahead, which will provide the necessary monetary conditions for compliance with our inflation target in the medium run. Let me now proceed with an overview of economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting. Data for the first quarter of 2014 are generally in line with our previous assessments of the Albanian economy and financial situation. Weak aggregate demand continues to characterise the economy, further impacting almost all the economic and financial parameters in the country. In response to the weak aggregate demand, economic growth remains low and the Albanian economy continues to operate below its potential. The spare production capacities, both in the labour and capital markets, are reflected in low increase of employment and production costs, followed by weak inflationary pressures.
4 This idea permits us to explain why the decision to wait and see can be optimal and permits us to justify why demand, D, depends negatively on uncertainty, σ. The increase in uncertainty and the fall in demand What is critical about this analysis is that it can be very important from a quantitative point of view. The decision is not marginal. An increase in uncertainty does not result in “some” decrease in spending. An uncertainty shock that is common to all will lead every firm and every consumer to paralyze spending, causing a collapse in demand. The main point is that this fall can be so sharp that one can even have more than one possible equilibrium (Figure 3). This could be the case if households decide to increase their savings significantly, such that low-income families would rather not spend on durable goods. The same could be true if firms decide not to invest. Thus, households and firms would delay  3  For the case of irreversible investment, Dixit and Pindyck (1994) provide a very thorough analysis. A simple example is presented in De Gregorio (2007), chapter 4. 4  Implications like the ones described here can be inferred from the precautionary savings theory. In order to avoid the cost in lost utility of extreme negative events, the consumer chooses to keep some buffer-stock savings. If uncertainty aggravates, for example by increasing the dispersion of future earnings, then precautionary saving will probably increase, which is done by postponing consumption decisions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the subprime mortgage crisis had already erupted in mid 2007, and by March 2008 an important financial institution, Bear Stearns, had collapsed. An important point of this preamble of the facts of September 2008 is that the string of events I just mentioned had no significant effect on economic expectations, nor did it change the mean of expected growth or increase uncertainty. This, despite the fact that the Bear Stearns bankruptcy was a very significant occurrence for the international financial market. Actually, the volatility of stock markets went up a rung in mid-2007, but was pretty mild if compared with September 2008 (Figure 4). This stock volatility index (VIX), which is normally used as a  4  BIS Review 76/2009  good indicator of uncertainty, 5 shows how it increased several times during the peak of the crisis in September and October of last year. The latest figures show uncertainty declining, although it remains high. Thus, according to market consensus, world growth for 2008-2009 posted no significant changes between March and September of 2008 (Figure 5). The situation in Chile did not differ much (Figure 6). During the whole of 2007, growth projections for 2008 fluctuated around 5 percent, even after the eruption of the housing crisis in the United States. At the time of Bear Stearns’ bankruptcy there had been some adjustment in expected growth for the year, but in September there was even a slight correction upwards. The Bank’s forecasts were similar.
The solution of the energy situation at the soonest time possible will provide positive impacts on the Albanian business, the soundness of public finances, the country’s sustainable economic development and the macroeconomic stability. Concluding this part, I would like to point out some other issues, which I think should be encompassed in the priority list of the country’s medium-term economic and financial development. The Albanian economy is leaving the status of a transition economy and is approaching to that of a developing economy. This qualitative step requires further deepening of structural reforms, enhancement of effectiveness of development policies and enlargement of the country’s absorbing capacities in terms of fostering the Albanian economy competitiveness at regional context and beyond it. I would highlight the constant trade deficit deepening, as an issue of the present and the future. Even though the current cross-border position of the country is not problematic, being materialised in such indicators as external debt, foreign reserve level or overall balance of payments position, I would point out that the rise of exports is not sufficient, particularly in the context of high reliability of the Albanian economy on remittances. The relatively high current deficit, around 7.6 percent of GDP, is another argument in this regard. The latter one, also in  2  BIS Review 80/2007  the presence of a fiscal deficit, increases our economy’s exposure and makes necessary the provision of foreign currency inflows of a more steady nature.

Other (operational and amortization) expenditures are almost at the same level with that of the previous year. BIS Review 80/2007  13  Finally, the almost full compensation between increase of incomes and expenditures makes the net profit of the Bank of Albania for 2006 be in the same level with that of the previous year, at about ALL 5.16 billion (or 99.6 percent of the profit for 2005). Honourable deputies, Concluding my speech, I would like to underscore that during 2006 the Bank of Albania included in its agenda all the recommendations given by the Albanian Parliament in its resolution adopted on 25 May, 2006. I would also like to assure you that even in 2007, the same philosophy will characterise our work. Understanding correctly the role and mission of our institution, on behalf of the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, I declare that the Bank of Albania will continue to be an accountable institution, deeply committed to fulfil its obligations vested by the Law and the Constitution. We have many priorities for 2007, but let me highlight the most important ones: •  Maintaining consumer price stability remains the main legal target of the Bank of Albania. We are confident that the decisions taken in 2006 were appropriate and have served to orient inflationary expectations to the targeted range. Based on our forward-looking philosophy, we will prudentially evaluate all the risk factors, so that we operate on due time and intensity.
In addition, money market experts have noted the exercise’s importance in the current environment of promoting market functioning; for example, it reduces the likelihood of pervasive, negative short-term rates trading. Conclusion In the five years since the FOMC has set the target for the federal funds rate at its zero lower bound, the landscape for the implementation of monetary policy has changed. The tools to implement monetary policy have also changed, and I focused here primarily on a possible new overnight, fixed-rate, full-allotment reverse repo facility. Although the current overnight, reverse repo exercise provides us with useful observations that allow us to improve the technical execution of policy, our knowledge is naturally limited by the exercise’s capped nature. Important questions will remain about the broader money market effects of a fully operational facility. Larger policy and implementation questions will also entail whether – and if so how – other tools would be used in conjunction with this facility and IOER, and how the facility might or might not fit into the Federal Reserve’s longer-run policy framework. But while there’s still a lot to learn, the potential addition of an overnight, fixed-rate, full-allotment reverse repo facility offers a promising new technical advance in the Desk’s implementation of monetary policy.

In Turkey the figure is 52 percent, and is slowly but steadily declining. If we look at the concentration issue from another standpoint, using the data for November 1998 and taking into account the total assets of the sector, 65 percent of the Turkish banking system belongs to the top 10 major banks. If we include the 20 foreign banks and branches having a share of 6 percent, and the 14 development and investment banks having a share of 5 percent, it can be seen that 76 percent of the banking system is consistent with 10 big banks, foreign and investment banks. The remaining 24 percent of the sector belongs to 30 banks. Among these banks, there are banks that are leaders in the sector, functioning properly and effectively. However, a limited number of banks have practical problems which are well  BIS Review 31/1999  2  known to us. We know all their problems. We monitor them. The existing banking laws and other elements of the legal framework do not give us full authority to address them actively and efficiently. The problem of the state owned banks is occasioned by the state budget, and its solution involves different issues. Now let me talk about risk management in the Turkish banking sector. From the standpoint of risk management, we do have well-developed methods of risk management and for supervising the risks that we undertake.
To understand important economic concepts like full employment, financial security, productivity growth and the impact of education, it is vital to understand not just the average experience but rather how all cohorts of the population are faring. This understanding is important in and of itself, especially in evaluating the impact of critical trends affecting the economy, like technological innovation or demographics, as well as the policies intended to respond to the impacts of those trends. We cannot fully understand whether policies have improved social welfare unless we understand how the impact of those policies varies across individuals. But understanding heterogeneity is important even if we are just examining policy impact in the 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  aggregate. The most innovative macroeconomic models, those at the frontier of current economic work, recognize heterogeneity across consumers in assessing how monetary and fiscal policy changes are transmitted through the economy. These models incorporate individuals with different marginal propensities to consume, with different amounts of wealth or access to borrowing, or who face different risk exposures, such as the chance they become unemployed, over the business cycle. Incorporating these factors can yield quite distinct insights about how changes in monetary or fiscal policy can affect growth, employment, wages and inflation. For those who want to know more, we published a blog post on Monday of last week that describes the output of just such a model.

For instance, we sponsor the Consumer Credit Panel, or CCP, a quarterly report on household credit based on a large sample of credit data from Equifax. We have also developed the Survey of Consumer Expectations, or SCE, a monthly survey of consumer expectations about inflation, the labor market and household finance. These reports and summary data are available from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data, which can be accessed on the Bank’s website, newyorkfed.org. Aside from producing these public reports, New York Fed researchers also use the underlying data to do detailed econometric analysis, some of which forms the basis of the blog series you’ll hear about today. In some cases, we are able to link the CCP, SCE and other data sets to derive insights into a wider set of factors affecting workers and consumers, such as educational attainment, student debt burden, job satisfaction, job transitions, access to credit and housing choices—and consumer expectations about many of these factors. Why do we do this? Why is it important to generate insights about individual workers rather than relying just on analysis of the aggregate data? The first, and most obvious, point is that the aggregate masks the experiences of individuals. Not all workers and consumers experience the economy in the same way. Employment, wage and income growth, housing, education, credit and a host of other outcomes vary significantly across different cohorts of individuals and these differences in turn can vary over the business cycle.
Based on that, the following crimes are classified as medium threats to money laundering situation in Malaysia: •  Organised Crimes  •  Human Trafficking & Migrant Smuggling  •  Forgery  •  Theft and Robbery; and  •  Counterfeiting of Currency  Human Trafficking and Migrant Smuggling, although currently assessed as medium threat is also seen as an emerging threat for Malaysia as this criminal activities is believed to generate substantial proceeds and may be further pursued if not enough enforcement actions are taken by the law enforcement agencies. If left unchecked, this type of crime may have the potential to pose high risk threats to the country from money laundering perspective. The following crimes are classified as low threats from money laundering activities: •  6  Sexual Exploitation  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  Arms Trafficking  •  Counterfeiting and piracy of products  •  Insider Trading and Market Manipulation  •  Murder  •  Environmental Crimes  •  Extortion  •  Kidnapping  •  Sea Piracy  Terrorism Financing threat is classified as medium risk taking into consideration the following factors: •  Insignificant number of terrorism and terrorism financing incidents in Malaysia  •  Primary groups (such as Jemaah Islamiah (JI) and Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) have been dismantled)  •  Evidences so far indicate self-financing by individual terrorist.

Ooi Sang Kuang: Managing risks in mortgage financing Welcoming address by Mr Ooi Sang Kuang, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, for the talk on “Managing Risks in Mortgage Financing”, Kuala Lumpur, 13 January 2010. * * * It is my great pleasure to welcome all of you today to this dialogue on “Managing Risks in Mortgage Financing”. This event is jointly organised by Bank Negara Malaysia and Cagamas Berhad to review and exchange perspectives on developments in the area of mortgage financing. At least two factors make this a highly topical subject at this particular time. Firstly, the dramatic events of the global financial crisis have shed the spotlight directly on the mortgage market, prompting many questions to be raised about current practices in mortgage financing. These questions have challenged traditional assumptions that mortgage lending is generally a safe and low-risk activity, and drawn attention to the blind spots that we need to be concerned about. Secondly, the current accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with the increasing intensity of competition in the mortgage market calls for greater vigilance by banks in monitoring risks in the mortgage portfolio. Expectations of faster and stronger recovery prospects for Asia, and that Asia will begin the process of unwinding of accommodative policies ahead of the rest of the world, could also lead to strong capital inflows and asset price increases. These combined conditions require banks to carefully monitor any changes in the direction of risks emanating from the housing market.
First, it requires the active involvement of many different stakeholders, in particular Government agencies and very often a variety of NGOs, as well as financial institutions with specialized skills and knowledge. Second, the state of economic and social development of a society is an  BIS Review 88/2010  1  important determinant on the level and quality of financial inclusion. Third, what constitutes acceptable level of inclusion, in terms of access to finance, protection of personal rights and liberties, or assurance of retirement and healthcare benefits varies from one jurisdiction to another. For the reasons that I mentioned, there is no uniform global benchmark that can be used as a successful model for financial inclusion programs. Success stories and experiences are dispersed and often go unrecorded and to further the cause we need to reveals this situation. The financial inclusion agenda requires a systematic and internationally-recognized set of financial inclusion indicators that is meaningful and capable of assisting us in formulating developmental policies. Furthermore, enormous efficiency gains from the availability of such indicators can both reduce the cost of research and implementation as well as increase the effectiveness of the delivery and execution of the policies. Lessons learned in using financial inclusion data in the Malaysian context Let me to briefly share some of the lessons we have learnt in terms of using data to improve the policy formulation process, and develop a more efficient and inclusive financial sector.

Inadequate or inconclusive data in areas such as measuring financial literacy, consumer awareness and financial education means that it is difficult to assess the cost and benefit of the proposed policy framework and its impact on financial inclusion. Conclusion Allow me to now conclude my remarks. The successful implementation of policy work in the area of financial inclusion requires the availability of quality data. The fact that this area still remains relatively unexplored, compared to the availability of data for corporate business, financial markets and other more sophisticated aspects of finance, clearly suggests that much work remains to be done. The magnitude and scope of the topic also requires a diverse group of policymakers to collaborate on a long-term basis. The establishment of a working group to improve the quality of financial inclusion data is therefore most timely, and will benefit policymakers in making better and more informed policies, as well as tracking the outcome of policy initiatives. In addition, it may also serve to increase the visibility new issues areas which are currently not being given sufficient priority by policymakers. I would also like to encourage the working group to consider, in the longer term, the development of some form of a composite financial inclusion index. The composite index will  2  BIS Review 88/2010  benefit everyone by providing a broad measure of trends, facilitate comparisons between distinct segments and create a benchmark for policy work in financial inclusion.