samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Krzysztof Rybiński: How to use globalization to improve Poles’ living standards? Address by Mr Krzysztof Rybiński, Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland, at the panel session: Globalization and Poland’s development, 4th Congress of the Polish Lisbon Strategy Forum, Warsaw, 13 October 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, In my today's speech, I should like to achieve two goals: •  First of all, I would like to outline major economic changes effected by globalization. 1  •  Second, I would like to point out to such areas in Poland's economic strategy that call for profound changes necessary if we want to reap the benefits of globalization while avoiding its pitfalls. At the same time, I would like to emphasize, as I usually do, that the opinions presented in this speech reflect my personal views and by no means are an official stance taken by any institution I used to be or I am presently professionally involved with. * (1)  *  *  What major changes in the global economy and in national economies have been induced by globalization? Globalization may be defined in various ways, and I believe that its essence is best captured when we define it as free movement of goods, services, labour, capital and knowledge between countries. Before I proceed with the presentation of the most important effects of globalization, it is well worth recalling the demographic trends that are going to strongly influence the global economy.

10  Capgemini Survey entitled Online Availability of Public Services: How Is Europe Progressing? Web Based Survey on Electronic Public Services. Report of the 6th Measurement, June 2006. 11  www.iN2015.sg  BIS Review 97/2006  3  countries. Many people who left Poland will achieve success, and set up prosperous companies. Some of these companies may become global challengers. Simultaneously, Poland has gained a million ambassadors abroad. For the time being, we are only lamenting. Have we yet done anything to use this huge Polish intellectual potential located in other countries in order to pursue joint efforts aimed at improving the standard of living for Poles, both at home and abroad. Have we got a vision that would for example indicate mechanisms for creating a diaspora with millions of Poles in the EU or across the globe, a diaspora that could effectively care for Poles’ and Poland’s interest? Actual examples of these include the Chinese and Mexican diaspora in the US, the Jewish diaspora across countries, the Portuguese diaspora in France or Global Scott Network, and many other. In the global economy, greater progress is made thanks to increasing use of information and communication technologies (ICT), also in public services. Firstly, it allows to leave unilateral communication channels for interactive two-way communication, which in turn enables citizens and entrepreneurs to be more active, and allows to offer public services better tailored to the needs of individuals and businesses.
14 It should be noted, however, that a slower pass-through  13  This result, ho wever, masks a significant degree o f hetero geneity acro ss co untries: th e share o f ho useho ld debt with interest rates that reset within a year stands at 76% in Italy and 71% in Spain, but just 9% in France and 11% in Germany. 14  In spite o f the sluggish respo nse o f the remuneratio n o f retail depo sits, the pass-thro ugh o f market rates to retail lending rates in the euro area has been similar to in the past fo r mo rtgages, whereas in the case o f lo ans to non -financial co rpo ratio ns it has been mo derately faster, acco rding to Banco de España staff analysis. 7  to deposit rates may also have dampening effects on household spending, by slowing down the increase in savers’ financial income. On the other hand, certain factors point to a potential faster monetary policy transmission compared to past episodes. First, the current hiking cycle comes after the negative shock prompted by the pandemic, which adversely impacted the financial situation of firms by increasing their debt levels. This leaves them more vulnerable to interest hikes rates and their expenditure decisions may be more sensitive to monetary policy changes. Second, there is some evidence that monetary policy tightening is now impacting firms’ financing conditions more forcibly than in the past.

This occurred because the fiscal policy during the pre-crisis boom had been strongly procyclical, so that the economic advance of over 9 percent in 2008 was followed by sharp falls in the next two years: –5.5 percent in 2009 and –3.9 percent in 2010. The lesson learned here  is that there is no viable alternative to a predictable and coherent mix of economic policies and structural reforms. Let me stress that this mix should remain in place even when facing the challenges of election years, and there are several election rounds in Romania in 2019 and 2020. The fourth lesson could deal with the issue of whether joining the euro area ensures faster growth or not. I attended the celebrations marking the 10th anniversary of euro adoption in Slovenia and Slovakia. While in the latter country euro area membership is considered a success story, in Slovenia it is viewed as a necessary, yet painful, step. During my conversation with a Slovenian expert, I argued that the difficulties faced after euro adoption were the consequence of not cleaning up banks’ balance sheets before euro area entry. He replied that the people were not interested in these details, as what they cared about most was the standard of living, which declined after the euro changeover.
The same goes with mBridge, the cross-border payment project that recently completed a number of pilots. For the platform to be sustainable, it is important for as many banks and their clients as possible to use it. The more the better. It is similarly important to include as many currencies and jurisdictions as possible. There is a virtuous cycle: the larger the network, the more the users, which in turn will further expand the network. So again, “more is more”. Beyond Tech 26. My third reflection is that the key to success is “beyond tech”. (Not “BioNTech” the vaccine!) Here I am referring to the need to go well beyond technology to create network effects. 27. Projects that fill a glaring gap in available services, as was the case with FPS for example, may achieve quick adoption more easily. But for other projects that seek to replace current products or practices, adoption could be an issue even if the new product or experience is far superior to what we have currently. 28. Let me illustrate this using our CDI initiative. The technology to construct this infrastructure and connect all parties is relatively simple. Creating a conducive environment to attract all stakeholders to join is far more challenging. 29. The project team spent most time not on technology, but in creating a commerciallyviable arrangement to ensure that there’s something for everyone: banks can use data to manage credit risks; data providers can earn fees; and data owners can borrow more easily and cheaply.

No one can say that they were sure how these innovations would shape things to come, and some of us, understandably, were just hoping they would go away so that we could get back to business as usual. Financial markets don’t really like surprises, and the idea that disruption is a good thing was a bit unfamiliar to many. 14. Over time, it has become apparent that these innovations, in particular the technologies and business innovation underpinning them, are here to stay and will naturally develop in a healthy financial system like Hong Kong’s. They have the potential to improve efficiencies, reduce intermediary cost and promote innovation. 15. Digital innovations encompass a wide spectrum of products and services beyond the commonly-known crypto-currencies. DeFi, given its composability feature, can inspire innovation in finance. Take tokenised green bonds as an example. We concept-tested the idea with the BIS Innovation Hub last year and are adopting it for an actual issuance  later this year. When both bond and cash are tokenised and brought on-chain, all bond lifecycle events like asset servicing, trading and redemption can happen more efficiently in a distributed manner. It could even make possible real-time tracking of the green impact. 16. In addition to traditional financial assets, the blockchain technology also allows fractionalisation of asset ownership in art, real estate or other assets, creating new forms of financial intermediation. With radical open-mindedness, we can use technological innovations to make financial markets more complete and bring benefits for the real world. 17.
1 This broad based deterioration in the global economy was carried through into the first and second quarters of 2009. The most recent projections by the IMF suggest that global growth will contract by 1.4% in 2009 before recovering to a growth rate of 2.5% in 2010. For the United States of America and the Euro Area, growth in 2009 is projected to contract by 2.6% and 4.8%, respectively; whilst in Japan and the United Kingdom, growth is projected to contract by 6.0% and 4.2%, respectively. Although emerging and developing economies are projected to perform much better, with a projected growth rate of 1.5%, this rate of growth is significantly below the estimate of 6.0% growth in 2008. Further, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decelerate sharply to 1.5% from 5.5% in 2008. Thankfully, as we meet today there is growing evidence that in many parts of the world, the worst of the crisis may be over. At the epicenter of the crisis, i.e. the United States of America (USA) and Europe, the collapse in output has decelerated – with the most recent evidence pointing to some increase in growth both in terms of actual output as well as some of the leading indicators of output. In the USA, second quarter GDP growth figures of -1% indicate a deceleration in the pace of contraction. Further, in the second quarter of 2009, important Euro areas economies such as Germany and France actually posted positive rate of GDP growth.

Economists understood the broad problem, but somehow failed to draw or contemplate the correct conclusions, despite our knowledge of previous episodes of financial collapse. However, the charge against the economics profession also has merit in that ultimately these global imbalances gave rise to or produced perverse economic incentives in financial markets which existing models did not or could not contemplate. This was compounded by a lack of regulatory oversight of key sectors of the financial market. But let me return now to the question of Africa and the global financial and economic crisis. How does Africa respond to the real prospect of lower growth than is necessary to reduce poverty on a sustainable basis? I believe that Africa needs to retain open economies, expand regional markets and integration; and expand the reach and benefits of the market economy. Zambia has been an active and founder member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Through these bodies Zambia is looking to leverage its own potential through projects such as the North-South Corridor under COMESA, which seeks to open up efficient transport routes for the flow of goods, service, and people, from the south to the north of Africa. Further, under SADC Zambia is looking to develop its vast hydro-electric power potential, estimated at around 6,000MW, as well as transmission infrastructure to enable Zambia to supply countries in the East African Community which face severe power deficits.
“Running out of room: revisiting the 3D perspective on low interest rates," Speech by Gertjan Vlieghe at the London School of Economics. Woodford, M. (2003). “Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy  ”,  Princeton University Press, Princeton (2003). 1. This speech will use a variety of real interest rate estimates, all of which adjust nominal interest rates for expected inflation. 2. For example, some approaches take a ‘longer-run’ perspective, according to which the equilibrium interest rate is the real rate expected to prevail after the economy has adjusted to any cyclical fluctuations (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Other approaches allow for short-term fluctuations in the equilibrium interest rate, defining it as the real rate that would prevail if prices were flexible (Woodford, 2003). 3. See Bank of England (2018) and Bailey et al. (2022). 4. For example, the analysis in Bank of England (2018) assesses that during the global financial crisis, headwinds to demand (including heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions) prompted a large fall in the cyclical component that took many years to dissipate. 5. The focus of this speech is on the longer-term structural trends and what might be driving them, for which longer time series of data are preferred. To enable cross-country comparisons, the real rate data are constructed by adjusting market measures of nominal interest rates for inflation. Consistent with the structural model analysis below, the  Page 21 sample is truncated in 2015. Del Negro et al. (2019), Holston et al. (2017) and Hamilton et al.

When Bank Negara Malaysia and the Bank of Thailand first operationalized this arrangement between our central banks in March 2016, we saw the potential and benefits for local currencies to play a more important role in enhancing regional trade linkages. The expansion of the arrangement today to include our close trade partner, Indonesia, underscores this potential. The signing of this MoU between Bank Indonesia and Bank Negara Malaysia represents another important milestone in the move to strengthen the relationship between Malaysia and Indonesia. Following the conclusion of the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework, we are confident financial institutions in both countries will be able to collaborate towards realizing the objective of facilitating greater cross-border trade and investments. Both Thailand and Indonesia share important links with Malaysia, forged through a long history of trade and investment activities, and close cooperation between our central banks. This occasion reflects how far we have come in this process. The cooperation arrangements between our central banks have now expanded to include clearly defined protocols and operational frameworks in a broad range of areas, including financial market development, supervision, surveillance, payment arrangements and crisis management. Bank Negara Malaysia has long been a strong supporter of financial and economic integration in both ASEAN and broader Asia – to unlock the region’s growth potential and support a stronger, more resilient economic community.
David Rule: Managing risk in a soft market Speech by Mr David Rule, Executive Director of Insurance Supervision of the Bank of England, at the General Insurance Research Organisation conference, Dublin, 21 September 2016. *  *  *  Good morning. This is my first speech as the Bank’s Executive Director for Insurance Supervision. Since I took on this role in July, I have been trying to meet with as many chief executives and chairmen of UK insurers as possible. I have been struck by the variety of business models and strategies but one theme has dominated discussions of the risks facing insurers: the current low rate environment. For life insurers, this can create direct solvency pressures to the extent that they are not fully matched against the increasing value of their future liabilities as discount rates fall. That can also be an issue for some general insurers with long tail liabilities. More generally, low investment returns mean earnings on the “float” can no longer cushion a poor underwriting performance. The margin for error in the running of general insurance firms has reduced – firms have to underwrite profitably. On the positive side, this emphasises the importance of underwriting discipline. The soft market But of course the current soft market makes profitable underwriting more difficult to achieve. I am going to focus my remarks today on the wholesale London markets.

First, underwriting: we expect Boards to be relentlessly inquisitive in understanding and challenging the effectiveness of underwriting controls, pricing trends, exposure changes and rate adequacy in order to make informed decisions, and provide meaningful challenge, to the business. Fundamentally, the Board should seek evidence that underwriters are maintaining appropriate discipline. Second, reserving: a robust approach to the setting of reserves and appropriate and adequate oversight of the reserving process is vital. We expect Boards to demonstrate independent challenge of key issues, material uncertainties and significant assumptions in the reserves and the rationale for their choice of booked reserves. Third, reinsurance: we expect Boards to ensure that the economic impact of the reinsurance transaction is appropriately reflected in business plans, capital setting and reserving; and to be alive to the wider risks to which reinsurance placements can give rise. This includes  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  ensuring the total risk and uncertainty over the claims run off has been captured in your risk management system and considered within your ORSA. Fourth, capital: we expect Boards to ensure that firms assessment of risk and capital requirements remain valid in this challenging trading environment. The new System of Governance requirements under Solvency II and the Senior Insurance Managers Regime are timely additions to the insurance regulatory regime, ensuring that clear expectations are being set as to the strength of systems and controls, and that there is clarity as to the roles and responsibilities of senior managers in firms.
BIS Review 10/2007  13  In this example, we have been able to reconstruct (approximately) the reference path in Inflation Report 3/06 by minimising a loss function under commitment in a timeless perspective. To reconstruct the reference path, the weight on the output gap in the loss function, lambda, has been set at 0.3. We also had to place a weight on changes in the interest rate in the loss function. This weight, which penalises large changes in the interest rate, can be defended based on considerations regarding robustness and financial stability. What is the outcome if we depart from our established response pattern? 14  BIS Review 10/2007  The chart illustrates what might happen if the central bank reoptimises today, but promise never to do so again. In the model, this will result in a marked rise in interest rates today. But such an approach has been criticised in the literature. If the central bank departs from its response pattern today, it is easy to believe that it will do the same in the future. It may therefore be difficult to gain credibility for such a policy. Even if it may feel tempting, it is important to be aware of the costs associated with departing from an established response pattern. It will then be more demanding to influence private-sector expectations. Frequent reoptimisations will in practice undermine the benefit of commitment and lead to a discretionary policy. The benefit of commitment hinges on the credibility of the central bank’s actions and communication.

As long as private-sector decisions are partly based on expectations about the future, and the central bank through its actions and communication can influence these expectations, the chart illustrates a result that is independent of the explicit economic model: If the central bank can commit itself credibly to a response pattern, it will be able to achieve a better outcome over time than if in each period it attempts to optimise the situation. This is illustrated in the chart in that the line that represents a commitment strategy lies closer to the origo point than the line that represents a discretionary strategy. If, however, economic agents are purely backward looking, there would not be any differences between the two approaches, and the two lines would converge into one. The more forward-looking the economic agents are, the greater the difference between the outcomes is. The way in which monetary policy is implemented and communicated may therefore influence the functioning of the economy through the expectations channel. By committing to a pattern of behaviour, the expectations channel can be used effectively. BIS Review 10/2007  11  Let us now take a closer look at our projections in the previous Inflation Report. The inflation gap closes gradually from below, while the output gap closes from above. According to the Bank’s view, these paths provide a reasonable trade-off between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and stabilising developments in output and employment. Let us now use a time machine and travel forward to 2008.
11  Specifically, Level 1 assets are entirely taken into account in the LCR (no haircut) and thus benefit from a more beneficial treatment in the LCR than in the Eurosystem’s collateral framework, while level 2 assets generally enjoy lower haircuts in the Eurosystem’s collateral framework than in the LCR. These differences certainly reflect the different objectives of the LCR and the Eurosystem’s collateral framework. 12  Central bank refinancing always benefit from a 100% rollover rate no matter the quality of the assets used in the transaction. A 100% rollover rate ensures equal treatment between central banks implementing monetary policy through repo operations and central banks implementing monetary policy through outright purchases of  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  depends on the opportunity cost of obtaining liquidity from the Eurosystem, there may be a number of LCR-constrained banks with large amounts of non-HQLA collateral that is eligible for monetary policy operations. Imagine a post-crisis monetary policy framework where the liquidity provision by the central bank would again be rationed and implemented through competitive auctions (instead of today’s fixed rate, full allotment). If some banks have no access to market repos using their assets as collateral (owing to concerns in the market place about country, counterparty or collateral risk), it will be likely that these counterparties will bid in the liquidity-providing monetary policy tender operations using this collateral in order to obtain cash to cover both their funding needs and their LCR.

Likewise, Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace have contributed to the origins of computing that underpins virtually every aspect of modern life. Each of the shortlisted scientists is worthy of celebration, so the Bank is delighted that this Museum is honouring them with a special exhibition that showcases their many and diverse achievements. Sadly, there is not adequate space to feature them all on the new £ note. A choice had to be made. And it is my pleasure to announce today that the scientist that will feature on the new £ note is Alan Turing. Why Turing? Alan Turing was an outstanding mathematician whose work has had an enormous impact on how we live today. As the father of computer science and artificial intelligence, Alan Turing’s contributions were far ranging and path breaking. Turing was insatiably curious about the world around him. With his mind ranging widely and freely, he approached a variety of seemingly intractable problems and found answers that passed others by. His genius lay in his unique ability to link the philosophical and abstract with the practical and concrete. All around us, his legacy continues to build. Turing is a giant on whose shoulders so many now stand. Born in Paddington, London on 23 June 1912, Turing displayed prodigious talent and vibrant interest in the sciences and mathematics as a schoolboy. This was reinforced by the untimely death of his close friend Christopher Morcom.