samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Only for more complex organizations, a more extensive technological infrastructure is needed. Let’s come to the answer to the question then. To have a well established, in other words, efficient risk management system, first we need to develop the risk culture within our organizations meaning that we need to make sure that at all levels every person understands the risks the institution is exposed to. It is the responsibility of top management to provide that kind of information by having a clear approach to risk, its appetite for risk and assigning responsibility for assuming and controlling risks. Therefore, the first step in risk management process is to identify the risks the institution is exposed to and to quantify those risks. Effective risk management requires that a consistent methodology be developed for analyzing risk. Important steps in risk management analysis are as follows: •  identifying the key financial flows;  •  determining the appropriate time horizon;  •  setting a benchmark;  •  defining the institution’s return objectives and views toward risk. As you all know, most progress has been made in the measurement of market risk and much work is now being done in many places to construct models for a better management of credit risk. Difficulties with credit risk measurement lies in the lack of statistics about individual default probabilities. Even if these default probabilities can be estimated reasonably accurately, it is still rather difficult to combine them into portfolio assessments.

Deep social and demographic changes have altered household behavior in terms of work, saving and consumption, while technological development, the densification of value chains and changes in consumer preferences broaden the range of firms’ choices about how and for whom to produce. All this will force the Central Bank to multiply its efforts to generate new data and analyses, to better understand the international transmission mechanisms, the financial behavior of households, the sources of systemic risks in the banking industry and the operation of key markets, such as those for financial derivatives and mortgages, among others. A better understanding of expectations-building mechanisms and the bases of consumer and business confidence can also help the Bank fine-tune the mechanisms to communicate its policy decisions so that it can provide reliable guidance to the markets. But the need for greater transparency does not end in monetary and financial policy, because the Central Bank, being a public institution, must be able to adapt its standards of transparency to the changing needs of markets and to the demands of Chilean citizens. It must also be able to identify and prevent new perils threatening the performance of its various functions. At this point, it is particularly important to ensure the continuity of the payment systems and operations whereby monetary policy takes place, because of the great technological developments in this area and the high costs of any failure.
In the most recent Monetary Policy Report published at the beginning of July we were expecting GDP growth in the United States to slow down to around 1.5 per cent a year in 2008 and 2009. I agreed on the whole with the picture of international developments presented in the Monetary Policy Report, but my assessment was that developments in the United States could be even weaker than we were assuming. There is a risk that we will have to lower the forecasts even more in coming reports, particularly the forecasts for 2009. GDP growth in the  BIS Review 100/2008  1  second quarter of 2008 was actually slightly stronger than we had expected. GDP increased by 0.5 per cent compared with the first quarter. Growth in the United States is now largely being upheld by exports alone, which are increasing at a good rate as a result of world growth and the dollar depreciation (compared with the level 2-3 years ago). Domestic demand will on the whole not show any increase in 2008 and 2009. I do not believe that the recovery in domestic demand will get started before the financial system has stabilised and before the fall in US house prices has come to a halt. House prices have continued to fall during the summer. Growth in Europe will also slow down Europe fared better than the United States at the beginning of the year.

This is partly because the financial crisis originated in the United States and the financial market turbulence has not been as severe as there. Another explanation is that the financial balance is better in Europe; public sector finances have improved in recent years and the current account is close to zero. We assumed in the Monetary Policy report that GDP growth in the euro area would slow down to 1.7 per cent in 2008 and 1.2 per cent in 2009, to reach almost 2 per cent in 2010. At the beginning of July we had seen little sign of the slower growth in the statistics on production and in the National Accounts. On the contrary, there had been several positive surprises. However, there were tangible signs of a future slowdown in other types of data, such as corporate and household confidence indicators. The quick figures for the second quarter now indicate that GDP in the euro area declined by 0.2 per cent compared with the first quarter, which was weaker than we had expected. Global growth still strong GDP growth in the world as a whole has been very strong over the last four years, around 5 per cent a year. Not since the early 1970s, prior to the first oil crisis in 1973, have we seen such strong growth in the world for such a long period of time.
The average deposit rate on households and corporate deposits for the region equals 1.4% and 0.9% in 2016, compared to around 5% and 4%, respectively in 2007.5 The correction is in line with the policy rate and lending rates adjustment, and reflects the natural response of the banks for preserving their profitability at acceptable levels. Yet, it seems that deposit interest rates in some of the countries in the region, in the members of the Euro Area in particular, are approaching the lower bounds. Albeit saving alternatives for the private sector in the region are limited, further drop in deposit rates might act as a constraint for further deposit growth. The falling opportunity costs can increase the propensity to hold cash or short-term funds in the banking system, thus eroding the quality of the financing sources and banks’ ability to provide more credit. Still, given that recent bank profitability indicators point to a gradual improvement in profitability, profitability concern will probably weigh less on the deposit interest rates. Nevertheless, in few of the countries (Croatia, Hungary, and Bosnia) profitability indicators are still worrisome. In addition, further decline of the ECB rates, for some of the countries might also pose challenges in this regard. 5  Interest rate data for Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia available since 2011, or 2012. Hence the 2007 figures do not include these countries, and Albania as well, for which sector by sector data is not available.

Chart: 3 Lending interest rate and the adjustment* Interest rates on enterpise loans, in %  18  Interest rates on household loans, in %  18  2015  SLO  2014  SRB  2013  ROM  2012  POL  2011  MKD  SLO  SRB  ROM  POL  MKD  LIT  0  LAT  2  0  HUN  4  2  EST  6  4  CZR  8  6  CRO  10  8  BUL  12  10  BIH  12  HUN  14  2015  EST  2014  CZR  2013  CRO  2012  BUL  2011  BIH  14  LIT  16  LAT  16  Change 2016 - 2007 in pp 0  -1 -2 -3 -4 -5  Policy rate  Lending rates  -6 -7 -8  Source: Central Banks’ internet pages. *Policy rates in Baltic countries are approximated with the ECB interest rate, while for Bulgaria, where currency board is in place, the interbank rate is used as a proxy. The ease of the lending rates, was probably important, but not sufficient prerequisite for enabling stronger credit financial flows in the region. Although in the last couple of years signs of credit recovery are visible in many of the countries, it is still tepid, and in some of the countries deleveraging of the private sector continues.
For the property market, it is obvious that if there is a bottleneck or an imbalance in the supply of land, we have to deal with it. But the factors affecting demand, supply and prices of properties are very complex. Sometimes property prices rise not because there is a shortage of residential flats to satisfy housing demand, but because people expect that the market will continue to rise making it better to buy now to reap short-term profit or hold on for bigger gains in the long run. Currently in Hong Kong, the rapid surge in luxury-property prices may not necessarily be caused by insufficient supply of high-end residential flats, since rentals have not moved up in proportion with the prices. Actually, the increases were caused by the fact that many investors, including those from Mainland China, were optimistic about the outlook for future prices. 9. Apart from regulating the supply of land, another method that has long been used in Hong Kong to reduce the risk of bubbles in the property market is for banks to act as gatekeepers in preventing sharp increases in mortgage lending. The regulatory measures implemented by HKMA on 23 October that tightened the loan-to-value ratio for luxury  2  BIS Review 167/2009  properties priced at $ million or more to 60% serve this purpose. Some may argue that since many buyers of luxury properties are wealthy, they may not need to apply for mortgages and therefore the HKMA’s measures may not have the expected effect.

We experienced an economic contraction for five consecutive quarters and property prices plunged by more than 60%. Many families found themselves trapped in “negative equity”, and the unemployment rate was above 8%. Hong Kong began to recover in 2003 after six years’ hard struggle. I am sure that this experience is still fresh in our memory. 4. Japan is another good example. It enjoyed rapid economic development after World War II, quickly becoming a powerful industrial nation. During the late 80’s when its stock and property markets were booming, a huge bubble was created, which we only realised afterwards. Few people spotted the emergence of a bubble at the time, and the extraordinary and irrational exuberance was interpreted as the “Japanese miracle”. We all know now that what a disaster this “Japanese miracle” was for its people. Twenty years on, the Nikkei Index still hovers around the 10,000 level, only a quarter of its peak of 39,000, while the average residential land price in six major cities is equivalent to only a third of its level two decades  BIS Review 167/2009  1  ago. Of course, there are other structural problems that have prevented a Japanese recovery for such a long period. 5. The current global financial crisis was caused by the bursting of the property bubble in the US, which left many financial institutions under stress.
In recent years, digital payment solutions such as e-wallets over mobile devices have emerged, and nowhere is this more obvious than in Asia. From 2015 to 2016, non4 . cash transactions in developed Asia-Pacific grew by 8.8% while that in Emerging Asia experienced 28.6% growth1. Digital payments in Asia are forecasted to grow annually at 16.4% 2 to reach over USD 2.5 trillion per year in 2022. That is almost half of the estimated worldwide total of USD 5.4 trillion. 5. Such services are often offered by non-banks, increasing the number of payments being handled outside the traditional banking system. EY and DBS3 found that payments and remittances were the highest-adopted FinTech services among banking and financial services customers in Asia, reaching 40% in China and 20% in India. In ASEAN, approximately one-third of FinTech companies are in the payments space, and this increases to 54% if you include money-transfer and remittance services4. These innovations did not come about by chance, but rather through a confluence of three factors: 6.  a. Technology has lowered the barrier to entry to run a standalone payments business, without being a bank. b. The high penetration of smart phones running apps has made it easier to acquire customers 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  digitally, without physical places of business; and c. The boom of online e-commerce has necessitated the creation of solutions to help customers to pay digitally for services that they in turn purchase digitally.

Because they are so closely linked to monetary policy, they had shown signs of almost full integration right after the introduction of the euro. But with the crisis, a degree of re-segmentation took place again along national borders; and the Eurosystem had to step in to take on the intermediation role that these markets play in normal times. Another set of issues relate to banking. Banks expanded both across borders and financial sectors, often combing commercial banking, investment banking and insurance business in one and the same group. The two groups whose CEOs are in the panel are clear examples of this evolution. But cross-border integration of rules and prudentials, including the institutional framework, has not proceeded with the same speed and there continue to be clear differences according to the activity type. Banking consolidation also raises sensitive moral hazard and crisis management questions, as painfully illustrated by the crisis. The securities markets showed strong growth in the years before the crisis and clear signs of integration, though not to the same extent as observed in the euro money markets. With the crisis, bond price indictors showed signs of more dispersion across countries in Europe, but the question is whether this points to more segmented markets or rather increased risk awareness on the part of investors. Very topical in this respect is also the CDS market and its interaction with the underlying (sovereign) bond market. Finally, the integration of a securities market depends to a large extent on the integration of the supporting market infrastructure.
Recognizing that the reason that investors have generally stayed away from bonds issued by Asian entities is due to their low liquidity and low credit ratings, APEC is currently active in the design of instruments that can be traded in these markets, through its work on securitization and credit enhancement. Given that at present, a number of bonds issued by Asian entities are below investment grade, the use of securitization and credit guarantees to enhance the quality of these issues can act as a near-term solution to giving these issues a credit quality acceptable to investment managers, and give them the needed initial exposure to private investors. The introduction of these new instruments – which would attain a credit quality acceptable to investment managers by achieving a high rating from international rating agencies – would also benefit the international financial community by providing investors with a greater diversity of products and instruments for investment. More importantly, it would enable smaller corporate entities – who would otherwise be limited to financing themselves through short-term commercial bank lending – to access bond markets and find a source of funding more suitable to their needs. Cross guarantees A means of helping economies with less developed local bond markets to issue debt in the regional market may be through the use of cross guarantees.

Aside from providing stable and long-term financing alternatives for businesses and public sector agencies in the region, this would also help strengthen the financial system in the region by making available a diverse choice of alternatives for investment, as well as support economic growth through more stable financial systems in the region. 2  BIS Review 24/2003  The necessity to develop a regional bond market While many countries in the region have begun the process of developing bond markets – or where they exist already, deepen and widen those markets – countries are also looking to promote the development of the regional bond markets in parallel with development of their own markets. Given the problems of economies of scale as mentioned earlier, development of the regional bond markets would offer a more efficient and viable option in neighboring countries until these countries’ financial systems are more developed and have a more sophisticated market structure in place. Roadmap for the development of Asian bond markets Over the past year, the development of Asian bond markets has been discussed in various international fora, such as ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting, the Executives Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP), Asian Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Development of the demand side, involves promoting the pooling of investor base or the pooling of reserves under the Asian Bond Fund initiative, which has had a good start under the cooperation of central banks.
It also takes into account Malaysia’s aspirations to become a high valueadded, high income economy. Within the global economic landscape, emerging economies will assume a more significant role. While emerging economies will continue to be affected by global developments, most are able to demonstrate resilience and are expected to remain on a growth trajectory. By 2030, emerging economies are projected to account for 60% of total world output, from the current 40%. At the same time, the economies and financial markets in the global economy and international financial system have become more interconnected as a result of greater crossborder trade and financial flows. The continued development and deepening of our financial markets and increased financial liberalisation in emerging economies will reinforce this trend towards greater interconnectivity. More recently, the financial sector has been the target of a renewed focus and priority by the international community. Wide ranging financial reform measures have been introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis to address the weaknesses that have surfaced during the crisis. Several changes are also transforming the domestic environment. New domestic sources of growth, the greater role of the private sector in the economy, demographic changes, rising incomes and a growing middle class, and the accelerated pace of urbanisation cumulatively will significantly change the demands on the financial sector.

To drive the migration to e-payments during the transition period, the Instant Transfer fee of 50 sen would be waived for transactions up to RM5,000 per transaction made by individuals and SMEs effective 1 July 2018. The e-Payment Incentive Fund (ePIF) will be enlarged with an additional contribution of RM198 million from financial institutions. The funds will be used to assist account holders to migrate efficiently to e-payments. Individuals and businesses are advised to take advantage of these incentives and engage their respective financial institutions. In line with this year’s theme of ‘Mobile Payment: The Next Wave’, we have invited a total of 18 exhibitors comprising both banks and non-banks to showcase their new and innovative payment solutions. Do take the opportunity to visit the booths to gain further insights on how the solutions would benefit your business and cater to your payment needs. With this, I wish you a productive forum ahead. Thank you. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
But it was still to EMEAP’s credit that in the second Governors’ meeting in Shanghai in July, the group called for the creation of an Asian facility to supplement the IMF in providing assistance to member economies in Asia to make structural adjustments. That historic decision paved the way for the smooth meeting organized by the Fund in Tokyo two weeks later in August when more than $ billion out of a total package of $ billion facility to Thailand was amassed from EMEAP members with almost no fuss. Meanwhile, the call for an Asian facility is still being considered. Discussions are continuing amongst the interested parties, whenever opportunities present themselves. Asian Monetary Problems 22. It is perhaps one of the ironies of the post-Bretton Woods era that the modern world is no longer generally short of liquidity, and indeed is arguably at present overflush with liquidity. Yet amidst all this liquidity and prosperity, liquidity crunches can even test the solvency of nations. The currency turbulence in Asia has prompted a realization of this irony and consequently much soul searching on the appropriateness of exchange rate and other monetary arrangements, macroeconomic and structural adjustment policies, the adequacy of financial market regulation and banking supervision, the pace of financial liberalization, etc. Many words of wisdom are being offered. While some are critical of the wisdom of fixed exchange rate systems, others blame volatile capital flows and currency speculators for the currency crises in rather strong and emotive terms.

But the down side risk which all of us should be aware of is the possibility that the global financial market may then become segmented into regional blocs which may result in more competition and friction, rather than co-operation. 11. On the form of monetary co-operation, there is a wide spectrum of experience on the basis of current practice. There is on the one extreme the simple exchange of information and expertise amongst monetary authorities helpful to the management of the domestic monetary system generally, covering the whole range of central banking functions in the management of the currency, the supervision of financial institutions, the development of the financial infrastructure, the management of foreign reserves, etc. On the other extreme, there is monetary co-operation to the extent of achieving monetary union or integration. 12. In between the two extremes there are arrangements for policy co-ordination at the macro level initiated on the realization of increasing international, particularly regional, economic interdependence. There are also the more focused schemes for mutual assistance in the provision of liquidity to facilitate effective monetary management, which may or may not involve the assumption of credit risks between governments. There have also been considerable efforts spent in supervisory co-operation towards the standardization of supervisory practices in order to promote international financial stability, again in recognition of the possibility of the damaging contagion effect of financial crises across financial systems.