samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A short list of current issues includes policy normalization in the advanced economies; potential spillovers to emerging market economies (EMEs); fragility in some EMEs; ongoing economic and financial adjustment in China; trade policy tensions; and Brexit. So, there should be no shortage of things to talk about. Diverse perspectives often lead to better thinking and outcomes, and given the variety of experiences represented today, I expect a very fruitful set of discussions. In my remarks today, I will focus on monetary policy, highlighting the evolution of Federal Reserve policy actions and communications as we’ve exited from the extraordinary stimulus that followed the crisis and recession. The good news is that 10 years after the crisis, the U.S. economy is doing very well overall. From the perspective of the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, quite honestly, this is about as good as it gets. As a result, the Fed has naturally been moving toward more “normal” monetary policy. And that brings me to a key theme of my remarks today: What does “normal” monetary policy look like? Before I go any further, I should note that what I have to say represents my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System. Strong, Strong, Strong My take on the economy is well summarized by the most recent FOMC statement, in which we used variations on the word “strong” five times in only four short paragraphs.

I reiterate you do not have to do this alone and isolated. International scientific collaboration allows for increased access to research resources and infrastructure. Teaming up with professionals with complementary skills, benefitting from knowledge generated beyond boundaries is a modern and effective endeavour. We hope this Workshop as well as other conferences and activities we are hosting throughout the year will contribute to this end. I wish you great success during the Workshop proceedings and in your everyday efforts. It is my hope that getting to know each other’s work will lay the foundations for further future cooperation. Thank you! BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
As previously announced, those in possession of such banknotes will be reimbursed the nominal value by Orell Füssli. For the SNB, security is paramount in the production of banknotes. Orell Füssli has reviewed its security arrangements, and has taken the necessary measures to ensure that such events are precluded to the greatest possible extent in the future. I would like to emphasise that the SNB and Orell Füssli have been working together in the area of banknote production for about a century. The supply of secure banknotes for our country has been, and will continue to be, guaranteed at all times. We will also be pursuing the development of the new banknote series in close collaboration with Orell Füssli. As you are aware, the new banknote series has suffered a series of delays. The SNB is committed to putting banknotes into circulation that are state of the art in terms of both design innovation and technology. Our current banknote series was unique in this respect when it was issued in the mid-1990s. And it still has a very high security standard today, as a result of this commitment to quality. This means that the SNB is not under any pressure to roll out a new banknote series quickly. The new series must meet very high security, quality and technical production standards – and will have to do so for at least 15 years after its first release.

Jean-Pierre Danthine: Resilience of Swiss banks from a financial stability perspective Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Danthine, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Media News Conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 12 December 2013. *  *  *  In my remarks, I would like to look at the situation at Swiss banks from a financial stability perspective, taking the big banks first and then moving on to a discussion of domestically focused banks. To close, I will say a few words on the subject of banknotes. Big banks: strengthening resilience Since the last media news conference in June, the two Swiss big banks have improved their capital situation further. This applies particularly to their risk-weighted capital ratios, where, in an international comparison, they are above the average for large global banks. Credit Suisse, for example, has already met the requirement of 13% loss-absorbing capital to risk-weighted assets, which comes into force in 2019. According to its published plans, UBS should be able to meet this target by the end of 2014. As regards total capital – which, in addition to loss-absorbing capital, also comprises low-trigger contingent capital instruments – the big banks have also made great progress; however, they have not yet achieved the ratios that will apply from 2019. Unweighted capital ratios – leverage ratios – generate a different picture.
Sweden’s special requirements need to be reviewed  Source: Sveriges riksbank  Without saying anything about what a future floor for risk-weighted assets may look like, I will simply assume in my example that no bank’s risk-weighted assets may be less than 75 per cent of what they would have been if the Basel Committee's standardised methods had been used. I would like to point out that this 75 per cent should not be seen as an indication of any future calibration of a floor for riskweighted assets. I have chosen this figure because 75 per cent lies between the 60 and 90 per cent that the Basel Committee mentioned in its consultation document in March 2016.4 Given this assumption, our most recent calculations indicate that the major banks’ aggregated risk-weighted assets would increase from the current SEK 2,800 billion to around SEK 4,500 billion. This would mean an increase in the current risk-weighted assets of more than 50 per cent. If, and I would like to emphasise if, Sweden retains its national special requirements in the future, the banks’ CET 1 capital requirements will increase by more than 50 per cent, or around SEK 300 billion. This would of course be a significant increase from the current capital requirement levels.

While European labor markets are not – and will never be – as integrated as in the United States, goods, services, and capital markets are now fully unified, in many regards to a greater extent than in any other countries. Our studies show that business cycles tend to be more and more synchronized with time, an evolution which allows for greater efficiency and sustainability for a common monetary policy. This shows that monetary union is a self sustaining process: convergence can be a result, as much as a condition of economic integration. This has been termed the "endogeneity of optimum currency area" effects. Enlargement of the euro area As I said before, in contrast with some gloomy predictions made ten years ago, the euro is a success story. Far from being a closed Club, the Euro area is open and has a true calling for covering all the EU members, in so far as they fulfil the convergence criteria. Indeed, adopting the Euro can be seen as a legal obligation for all EU members once they have fulfilled the Maastricht convergence criteria. Monetary union is an on-going process. Starting in 1999 with 11 members, the Euro area has regularly expended. On 1 January 2001, Greece joined the Euro area. More recently, on 1 January 2007, Slovenia was the first of the 10 New Members  2  BIS Review 43/2007  States entered into the EU in 2004 to adopt the Euro; this brought the current number of members of the Euro area to 13.
Mugur Isărescu: Overcoming economic problems, the experiences of Sweden and Turkey – an inspiration for Romania? Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference “Overcoming economic problems, the experiences of Sweden and Turkey – an inspiration for Romania?”, Bucharest, 23 September 2013. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Excellences, Distinguished Guests It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the National Bank of Romania. I salute the presence of such a distinguished audience: Their Excellences, the Ambassadors of Sweden, Turkey, Brazil, Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands, members of the diplomatic corps, economists, bankers, businessmen, journalists. We are honored to host this international conference: “Overcoming economic problems, the experiences of Sweden and Turkey: are these an inspiration for Romania?” The title is, I believe, self-explanatory. In today’s globalized world, learning from other countries’ experience is of utmost importance. And while it might be true that no one really learns but from his own mistakes, one can hope that some other mistakes may be avoided when learning from other people’s experiences. Why Sweden and Turkey? Before answering this question I wish to emphasize that the National Bank of Romania is open and willing to host other conferences with similar topics. And today’s conference might be considered the first of a series, involving clusters of countries with relevant interactions.

But there’s something wrong. Interest rates are on the wrong side of the argument! They are too low, not too high, even if we assume that the equilibrium real interest rate is zero. Chart 5  Chart 6  Neither does international comparison suggest that Iceland is off the charts. Chart 5 shows a comparison of the real policy rates in a number of countries, based on the most recent interest rate decisions and the most recent twelve-month inflation figures. Iceland is 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  somewhere in the middle. In Chart 6 we see several industrialised countries. Iceland is at about the same level as Sweden. Interest rates are higher in countries that are further along in the business cycle and have less slack, and they are lower in countries where the slack is greater, monetary policy is more credible, and long-term inflation expectations are near target in spite of higher current inflation. Chart 7  Chart 8  Finally, I show charts that illustrate, on the one hand, nominal GDP growth as forecasted for 2011 and, on the other, the current nominal policy rate. Some have posited that monetary policy should aim at keeping nominal GDP growth as stable as possible at a level that, in equilibrium, would deliver a desirable inflation target. I have certain doubts about how this would work in practice, but that is beyond the scope of my speech today.
Svante Öberg: The financial crisis and wage formation Speech by Mr Svante Öberg, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the National Mediation Office, Stockholm, 29 January 2010. * * * Why is the Riksbank interested in wage formation? Wage formation and monetary policy are interrelated. The development of wages affects inflation and inflation affects the development of wages. The target for monetary policy is to maintain a low and stable level of inflation. This job is made easier if wage formation works well. Consequently, it is important for the Riksbank to follow this year’s comprehensive wage bargaining rounds. I will not make any recommendations to the social partners regarding the outcome of this year’s collective bargaining. Instead, I will describe the economic setting for this collective bargaining. This may seem to be an extremely subtle distinction, but it is an important one, nevertheless. We make no normative pronouncements regarding which rate of wage increase may be most appropriate. However, considering the drawn-out recovery and the weak labour market, the scope for wage increases seems to be highly restricted. I would also like to make two points during this introduction. Firstly: I will not be reporting any new view of economic developments beyond that presented in the monetary policy update of 16 December, although a few figures will be updated with the latest statistics. Secondly: The assessments and valuations I make here are not necessarily shared by all of my colleagues on the Executive Board of the Riksbank.

This would hit the regions impacted by the crisis hardest and the number of industrial jobs would decline more rapidly. Another important question concerns the implications of the division of the economy for the Industrial Agreement’s normative role in wage bargaining, a role which has been very important during the most recent agreement periods. The Industrial Agreement has been a restraining force, contributing towards retaining the competitiveness of that part of the Swedish economy exposed to international competition and keeping inflation at a low and stable level at the same time as real wages have risen and growth in the Swedish economy has been strong – until the financial crisis. In the period ahead, a drawn-out recovery, weak labour markets and low price and wage increases are also expected internationally. The sector exposed to international competition is the area of the Swedish economy to be most tangibly and directly affected by these external conditions for wage developments within Sweden. This suggests that this sector should also play a normative role in this year’s collective bargaining. The service sector is not as sensitive to cost increases, but finds it easier to pass these on to prices. If the service sector plays a normative role in this year’s collective bargaining, it is likely that wage increases, and thereby inflation, will be greater than would be the case if the sector exposed to competition were to be normative. Another issue that may play a major role is uncertainty concerning the future.
Therefore, it is necessary the society itself and international institutions support the establishment and strengthening of internal anchors. Which would be an efficient internal anchor? I think that the best internal anchor is a technician who thinks independently, proud of what he does, conscious for the results and the consequences of the proper actions. In other words, this implies the establishment of professional capacities as one of the cornerstones of long-term successful polices. The scientific education and research in this direction have an important and inalienable role. All the issues mentioned so far, as:   The new strategic model of economic growth;    The effective, efficient and consistent monetary policies with the economic growth;    The necessity for coordinated structural reforms in the region;    The challenges to European integration;    The common political economy of the region in the future;    The importance of internal anchors and the study and research of external ones, and;    The need for establishing capacities;  are included in the research work’s agenda of the Bank of Albania. It is a great pleasure that we already have the possibility to cooperate with a remarkable partner as Oxford University, a distinguished institution for the high-level research in political and economic sciences. For this collaboration, I hope and I believe that many issues I discussed above would have an answer, partial or a complete one.

While Bank Negara Malaysia will continue to strengthen the consumer protection framework through enhanced disclosure standards, effective dispute resolution mechanisms, and promotion of fair practices, banking institutions must also play their role. An important aspect is to ensure that consumers are adequately equipped with the relevant information to minimise the risks of poor financial decisions and their consequences. Market practices and disclosure standards must be fair and comprehensive so as to ensure that consumers are treated equitably and have access to adequate and timely information to facilitate effective decision-making. Ladies and Gentlemen, In this recent year, Bank Negara Malaysia has put in place two important infrastructures within the banking sector, the first being the framework for the establishment of Islamic subsidiaries, and secondly, the merger of commercial banks and finance companies within the same banking groups. These frameworks have paved the way for banking institutions to further rationalise their operations and improve efficiency. Both allow for the operations to be now undertaken within a new structure where the operations will be able to leverage on the group infrastructure, including the branch network and the support functions, to maximise cost efficiency and reap the benefits of group synergies. A number of banking institutions have already capitalised on the opportunities provided by these frameworks. Going forward in 2005, Bank Negara Malaysia will finalise a number of key regulations for the banking system.
This is pushing up hurdle rates on investment, swamping the impact of lower policy rates. Reducing uncertainty would turn a vicious cycle – in which falling equilibrium interest rates eat into policy space, exacerbating downside risks and pushing down equilibrium rates further – into a virtuous one, of rising equilibrium rates, increased policy space, and stronger global growth. “The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System”, speech by Mark Carney at the Jackson Hole Symposium 2019. 3  6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6  III. Transforming payments During Benoît’s time at the ECB, the public provision of money has faced challenges from Bitcoin to stablecoins. The Bank of England has an open mind but not open door when it comes to such innovations. Unlike social media, for which standards and regulations are only now being developed after the technologies have been adopted by billions of users, the terms of engagement for any new systemic private payments system must be in force well in advance of any launch. And there are a host of issues that still need to be addressed – from maintaining the highest standards of operational resilience and managing financial risks, to addressing privacy and anti-money laundering concerns. Like Benoit, we recognise that these initiatives were not conceived in a vacuum; rather they seek to address long-standing problems in payments.

The international community is now intensifying its efforts to strengthen the international financial system, with the aim to build the foundations for a stronger and more inclusive global economy. In this post-crisis era, the role and relevance of Islamic finance have gained increasing attention. Islamic finance emphasises on achieving socio-economic goals in congruence with the Shariah objectives, thus reinforcing the fundamental disciplines that are essential to preserve financial stability. BIS Review 129/2010  1  Overview of Islamic finance and linkages between Islamic finance and conventional financial system In this last decade, Islamic finance has evolved to become a complete and competitive form of financial intermediation that serves both Muslim and non-Muslims consumers and businesses. The Islamic finance industry is currently worth more than $ trillion and growing at a rate of 15–20 percent annually, with anticipation of further growth to reach $ trillion in the next 3 to 5 years, as more countries around the world seek to further develop Islamic finance within their jurisdictions. Its appeal as a competitive and innovative form of intermediation has led a number of established conventional players to enter the Islamic finance industry, thus widening the diversity of Islamic financial institutions and its product range. Exceptional growth in Islamic finance is registered not solely in the Muslim world, but now spans across the western world and the Asia Pacific region where the growth is driven by commercial and business considerations.
The stress test in the face of an adverse macroeconomic scenario also showed satisfactory results for the Spanish banking sector. On average, the adverse scenario would have involved a reduction of 144 pp in Spanish banks’ CET1 ratio, without the minimum established capital ratio having failed to be met in any case. In the case of European banks, this average impact would have amounted to 300 bp. These results confirm that the financial reform undertaken in Spain has managed to satisfactorily correct the shortcomings in our banking system, thus placing it in a favourable starting position as the SSM has commenced operating. The latest profitability figures confirm the ongoing normalisation of the sector. Following the losses posted in 2012, against the background of the strong increase in provisions for asset impairment, deposit institutions, which had restored positive results in 2013, recorded profits after tax of almost € billion in 2014. Profitability in terms of equity, ROE, stood at 6.6% at December 2014, having increased by almost 1.5 pp on the previous year (5.2%). That said, profits in the industry, which are still modest in historical terms, are largely based on lower provisioning as a result of the cyclical improvement in the economy and also on the gains and losses on financial assets and liabilities.

These are all ways to use inflation targeting in a world of larger shocks. The key point is that they have required careful adaptation of the approach to monetary policy – evidence that the world doesn’t and should not stand still. In conclusion, I have pointed to four important areas where monetary policymaking is having to adapt. Our decision-making has become more multi-dimensional, with decisions on policy setting and the set of tools that should be available. We should always keep these decisions separate in terms of signalling. Second, the challenge currently is to raise the rate of inflation to target in the midst of a huge shock. This is just as important and underlines the symmetrical nature of our framework. Third, responding to a shock of this scale has led to debate around what it means to be an independent policymaker. This debate is misplaced – the focus must be and always is on the inflation target, the outcome. Last, central banks’ approach to inflation targeting has had to be adapted in the face of the much larger shocks we have been experiencing: But, that is in the nature of effective policymaking. Thank you. I am grateful to Andy Haldane, Andrew Hauser, Michael Saunders, Jan Vlieghe, Silvana Tenreyro, Ben Broadbent, Richard Harrison, Karen Jude, Nick McLaren and Laura Wallis for their assistance in helping me prepare these remarks. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches