samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
With the strong economic fundamentals and the positive growth prospects of Asia, international and regional financial institutions are also now shifting their focus into the region. With the high savings rate in Asia, and of its massive requirement for infrastructure development, the region would benefit significantly from more effective and efficient intermediation of Asia’s surplus funds. Indeed, intra-regional cross-border portfolio investments have already increased to 28 percent of total assets holdings in 2011 compared with 21 percent in 2001. The gains from greater regional financial integration will be farreaching as it will not only bring about a more efficient allocation of resources in the region but it will act as a catalyst for greater regional economic growth. Over the coming years, as  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  growth experienced in the developed economies is expected to remain slow in the aftermath of the financial and debt crisis, the growth performance of Asia is expected to continue resulting in the region becoming a more important component of the global economy. Asian funding markets have also remained highly accessible during this period with Asian names enjoying strong demand and attractive funding costs at a time when the developed countries funding markets have tightened. During this more challenging time, Asian sovereigns such as Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Malaysia continue to successfully tap the market and to issue bonds with tenure up to 30-years.

A more significant slowdown in the global economy might ease inflationary pressure. Given these conditions, the SNB is maintaining its cautious stance and leaving its monetary policy strategy unchanged. In view of the medium-term inflation outlook, it can afford to do so. After all, there is enough reason to suggest that the current inflationary trend is of a transitory nature. The SNB will keep a close watch on the price of oil, movements in the Swiss franc, the economy, and developments in the financial markets, so as to assess their impact on the inflation outlook and react swiftly, in order to maintain price stability in the medium term. Global economic outlook With exports accounting for 52% of GDP, the Swiss economy has a strong global presence. This is an opportunity, but it also means that the international environment has a considerable impact on economic developments in Switzerland. The US economy – until recently the principal driver of global economic growth – has made scant headway over the last three quarters. However, the period of near-stagnation which the US economy is currently experiencing is not likely to be too prolonged. The resolutely expansionist nature of US monetary and fiscal policy, combined with a weak US dollar that favours exports, should help to reenergise the US economy.
But, the auditors failed to make that alert, because at that time, the audit programmes were confined to a simple financial compliance audit only. What the auditors should look for Since a central bank is a systemically important institution in an economy, the auditors of central banks should take extra care when the accounts of central banks are audited. The old maxim relating to the role of auditors is relevant here: “an auditor is a watchdog and not a blood hound”. Accordingly, auditors are required to keep vigil on central banking activities and alert the relevant parties when there are signs of risks emerging. The central bank management and the legislators should take serious note of such alerts and take appropriate corrective and protective measures. What are the signs of distress that auditors should look for? First of all, a sign immediately visible would be the change in the structure of the assets of a central bank from foreign assets to domestic assets. The depletion of foreign reserves drives a central bank to a future risky situation. It will have to borrow abroad from foreign sources in  7  As reported by The New York Times, June 14, 1993. 8  Ibid. 9  Ma. Cyd Tuano-Amador, “Central Banking in the Philippines since 1993”, in Money and Banking in the Philippines, BSP, 2003, p 210  6  BIS Review 58/2009  order to fund the immediate foreign exchange requirements raising both the income risks and foreign reserve risks.

And I find it encouraging that Citi has been at the fore of this refocus on the basics of banking and finance. You’ve gone through a process of introspection in the last few years, because of the crisis and through the crisis, and you’ve come out stronger. Not just because of better capital and liquidity – although that’s obviously a pre-requisite for strength in the post-crisis era. But more fundamentally because you’re asking yourselves important questions about culture – questions about responsibility, and about the source of your profitability as an enterprise that intends to be around for a long time to come. So the story of Citi, and like the story of several other global institutions, is also about the recurring importance of certain basics. And the most important basics in banking have to be about serving your clients and growing with your clients, and about managing risks well. There’s a risk that we’re placing a too much importance in recent policy debates on the structure of banking. You read the headlines, you’ll find a continuing debate about how large banks should be, whether we should have narrow banks or universal banks, about the role of national banks and global banks, about the role of commercial banks versus investment banks and the rest of the shadow banking system. These are important questions of structure, but I think we risk an overemphasis on structure and an inadequate focus on the culture of banking and finance, and an inadequate emphasis on the need for active supervision.
But our system is also remarkable for the magnitude of the costs, the incidence of those costs across the economy, the number of uninsured, and our poor performance on health outcomes even compared with less wealthy economies. To cite just one example, infant mortality rates in the United States are more than two times the level in Japan. In a world in which economic performance depends increasingly on flexibility and adaptability to change, we probably need to move to a system in which a change in employer or profession does not carry the substantial uncertainty it does today about how one will provide for one’s health and that of one’s family. This seems fundamental to the willingness of Americans to support the level of openness to trade and to change that is an essential part of our present and our future. A defining feature of the American economy has been our embrace of the market, and the recognition that market forces are, in general, the most effective way of allocating resources. But markets cannot solve all problems, and government policy plays an important role in how well markets function. The test of policy is not just in the incentives we create for competition and innovation, but also in the clarity and stability offered by the regulatory framework and in the quality of public goods that governments deliver.

This is a remarkably favorable picture; and yet there is growing concern about the long-term challenges for the U.S. economy and their implications for future prosperity. In parts of the business community, there is growing anxiety about a perceived shift in the locus of dynamism and growth away from the United States toward Asia and other parts of the world. Public opinion surveys report increased concern among Americans about economic security; about the prospects for future income growth and economic mobility; and about the implications of the long-term increase in income inequality. And there we can see growing concern among the general public and in the business community about the struggle to find a political consensus to support reforms to help us meet these challenges. The United States has long been one of the most open of the major economies. This basic policy choice, along with a range of other actions that have made our economy relatively flexible, has allowed us to be a substantial beneficiary of the rapid increase in global economic integration and in the growing economic success of the rest of the world. Globalization has brought challenges as well as benefits, however. The combined forces of technological change, immigration, and the rapid integration of China, India, and other economies into the world economy are altering the dynamics of competitive pressures on U.S. companies. The pace of change seems to be increasing, and more things we produce, and more of our services, are becoming tradable.
An unusually active Christmas season appears to have resulted in a strong tendency for private consumption, for example. Leading indicators in this respect point to a continuation of the strong development. Historically, a real GDP growth rate above 3.5% has not been sustainable for very long, at least in recent decades. It is rather the case that, for a safe and stable journey, the normal speed limit for economic growth has been about 2%. That would mean that, if nothing is done, today’s high growth rate will lead, sooner or later, to overheating and a rising rate of inflation. Before drawing this conclusion, however, we need to consider whether the historical record blinds us to what the future has in store. Is there a new economy? This brings us to the concept of a “new economy”. This concept was first discussed in the United States when the paths of growth and inflation in the 1990s differed from the traditional pattern. One explanation for this is said to be higher productivity growth, partly thanks to the new information technology. This has improved the workings of the economy’s supply side. It follows that even demand can rise more rapidly without leading to bottlenecks in supply that generate higher inflation. Stronger demand stems in turn from expectations that better productivity growth will lead to increased corporate profits, which implies higher share prices, and the resultant increase in wealth results in higher private consumption.

That is the background to the common estimate that over a longer period the Swedish economy can now sustain an average annual growth rate of between 2% and 2.5%. There are certainly some encouraging signs in Sweden in the form of many new companies and young entrepreneurs in the new information technology. And people in Sweden rank high as Internet users. But this has not shown up in the macroeconomic statistics to such an extent that there would be grounds for supposing that the potential growth rate has moved up towards the US level. A good indicator of whether conditions are in place for stronger productivity growth in the future is the existence of a sufficiently high rate of economic transformation, for instance in the form of increased investment and a rapidly growing capital stock. There are few signs of this in the Swedish economy, at least if one compares the 1990s with the 1980s. BIS Review 6/2000  2  Neither do other countries in Europe yet show any widespread signs of what is called the new economy. One reason may be that Europe is still in an earlier cyclical phase than the United States, so that investment in new directions has not yet taken off. Given this optimistic interpretation, it should be just a matter of time before the positive effects also materialise in Europe.
A debt-to-income limit may be an appropriate measure, but strengthening the loan-to-value limit and the amortisation requirement should also be considered. It may also be necessary to reduce households’ incentive to borrow by reducing tax relief on interest expenditure. Measures are also needed to strengthen resilience among Swedish banks. Given the risks in the Swedish banking system, it is important that the banks hold enough liquidity and capital. So that the banks can manage their short-term liquidity risks, they need to have a reasonable liquidity coverage ratio in all significant currencies, for example in certain Nordic currencies and pounds sterling for those banks that obtain funding in these currencies to a great extent. 15 [23]  To ensure that the banks have enough capital, a leverage ratio requirement, which is to say a requirement for the banks’ equity in relation to their total assets, should be introduced as a complement to the risk-weighted capital requirements already existing. This would restrict the banks’ possibilities for increased credit granting. It would be particularly effective to initiate this measure when the global financial cycle is on the way up and the banks are finding it easy to obtain funding. However, it should be repeated that a fundamental cause of indebtedness in Sweden is that the housing market does not function. It has not been able to meet the rising demand for housing that has long been highly visible.

In this scenario, the combination of slower growth, smaller surpluses in Asia and higher risk premia could move global interest rates higher, increasing the burden of corporate and household debts and challenging the creditworthiness of some sovereigns. Contrary to what you might have heard, it isn’t easy to win a trade war. If the UK has been somewhat more inwardly focused of late, it has been for good reason. In many respects, Brexit is the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability. Brexit can lead to a new form of international cooperation and cross-border commerce built on a better balance of local and supranational authorities. In these respects, Brexit could affect both the short and long-term global outlooks. It is in the interests of everyone, arguably everywhere – from Frobisher’s grave to Frobisher’s Bay - that a Brexit solution that works for all is found in the weeks ahead. 30  While economic, policy and geopolitical uncertainties are very high, several market-based risk metrics are not. Credit spreads, the VIX and equity implied volatilities are below the 50th percentile of their historic distributions, as is equity risk premium in the US. Despite recent volatility, high-yield corporate bond spreads also remain below pre-crisis averages.
This conference is at the heart of the present phase of the evolving debate and I would like to thank the Bank of Greece and the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics and Political Science for inviting me to contribute to this discussion. The general theme of this conference highlights the cost of the financial crisis, the policies being implemented to manage and resolve it, and the plans for an exit strategy. The financial, economic and social costs are indeed staggering, and they are likely to rise. A few figures will underscore the magnitude of the costs incurred so far. With regard to financial costs, the total writedowns on the assets of global banks over the period 2007-2010 have been estimated by the IMF at USD 2.8 trillion of which about one-third, just under USD 1 trillion, have already occurred. 1 In the euro area, the writedowns of banks reported so far, until early May, had reached USD 179 billion, roughly 18% of the total losses incurred by banks globally to date. The value of net wealth has also declined substantially since the turmoil erupted. For example, the market value of equity in Europe had fallen by EUR 3.65 trillion, or 45%, from its previous peak in July 2007 until late May 2009. 2 Finally, with regard to the economic cost of the crisis, one simple but encompassing measure is the aggregate output lost due to the recession that was triggered by the financial turmoil.

And, in response to a terrorist attack or other significant national security event, is your bank proactively searching its payment activity to see if it has potentially relevant information? One question that I get asked from time to time is if law enforcement can share more information about the activity reported in SARs. I believe law enforcement is always looking for ways to enhance the effectiveness of its information sharing. I want to recognize FinCEN’s efforts to share more information via its public website and in its reports to Congress about the information it collects from the industry through SARs. The New York Fed also tries to do its part. It hosts three major conferences every year in which the FBI, FinCEN, local law enforcement, and financial firms discuss financial crime—especially terrorist financing, money laundering, and cyber-crime. We do our best to act as a liaison between banks and law enforcement officials. We’ll keep at it. Conclusion Stepping back, I’d encourage you to consider as well what your firm’s response to financial crime says about its purpose and culture. What does it say about the role of the financial services industry in society? And, to get personal for a moment, how does that response make you feel about where you work and how you make a living? From where I sit, gaps in AML and other payment system defenses make a terrible impression because of the terrible things funded through illegal payments.
Andrew G Haldane: Whose recovery? Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, in Port Talbot, Wales, 30 June 2016. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. The views are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Bank of England. I would like to thank Mauricio Armellini, Christine Boykiw, Mark Carney, Ian Derrick, Chris Duffy, Jeremy Franklin, Emma Hardaker-Jones, Steve Hicks, Dena Jacobs, Arpad Morotz, Ben Nelson, Lizzie Peck, Alice Pugh, Lee Robinson, Mark Robson, Arthur Turrell and Sebastian Walsh from the Bank and Elaine Chamberlain, Alan Newman and Phil Wales from the ONS for contributions and comments. It is a great pleasure to be here in Port Talbot. I want to discuss the UK’s economic fortunes. The past few weeks have been dominated by the run-up to the EU referendum vote and its aftermath. This has generated considerable uncertainty about the economy, about policy and about politics – a heady cocktail. I will come to those uncertainties, and their implications for monetary policy, at the end. But I wanted to start by assessing the UK’s economic recovery so far, as this provides important context for what happens next. Last year I visited Nottingham on one of my regular regional visits. As with today’s, these visits are crucial for helping the Bank of England make sense of the economy. My first stop was a lunch for local business people.

Hong Kong will shortly have a state-of-the-art facility for conducting US dollar transactions in Asian time. The benefits of this for both local business and international customers, in both trade and finance, should be considerable. I take this opportunity to thank and congratulate those who have worked hard to bring the project to its present advanced stage in so short a time, and I wish every success to all who will be involved in translating the design into reality. BIS Review 22/2000  2
In Stockholm city centre investors in the property market are not requiring any higher earnings than a risk-free five-year government bond provides. It may be the case that the required rate of return has begun to rise more in general, but that this has not been captured in the statistics (see figure 5). It is difficult to determine what direction prices for office premises will take. Rising risk premiums indicate that prices should be pushed down. At the same time, however, the rental market is currently relatively strong. As the service sector is office-intensive, activity in this sector affects the possibilities for leasing. But there is considerable sensitivity to weaker economic activity. BIS Review 60/2008  3  In the autumn Financial Stability Report the Riksbank saw a risk that expectations of future increases in income in the property market were too high. We thus saw the risk of a fall in prices. Since then the required rate of return has risen with regard to commercial property around the world, while economic activity is more uncertain. This should reasonably have an effect on prices in the Swedish property market (see figure 6). The property market remains a hot topic and those who are interested can read more about the property market and commercial property in the Riksbank's next Financial Stability Report, which will be published on 3 June. Let me conclude with a few words on the financial markets.

Michael C Bonello: The adoption of the euro by new member states challenges and vulnerabilities Speech by Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the SUERF Seminar organised by the Central Bank of Malta, Valletta, 4 May 2006. The references for the speech can be found on the Central Bank of Malta’s website. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen I would first like to welcome you all to this seminar which has been jointly organised by the European Money and Finance Forum (SUERF) and the Central Bank of Malta. A special greeting goes to our foreign participants and guests, including some fifty members of SUERF from twenty-three countries. The topic chosen for the seminar is particularly appropriate at a time when the ten NMS have just entered their third year of EU membership and are increasingly focusing their attention on monetary union. In these introductory comments I shall, therefore, attempt to highlight some key issues which must be dealt with on the path towards the adoption of the euro. As our policy makers have become acutely aware during the past two years, this path is characterised by manifold challenges and vulnerabilities, not least those associated with real convergence, fiscal consolidation and capital account volatility.