samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Including the portion of shares of non-residents in some banks, which have been agreed upon, although the legal permit process thereto has not been completed yet, the share of non-residents in total assets has reached over 16 percent. Comparing the ratio of assets of the banking sector to the GNP in Turkey to those of developed countries, it is seen that Turkey ranks considerably lower on the list. As long as the favorable developments continue, the banking sector should grow in parallel or, even more. However, it is obvious that in a sector so capitalintense, achieving growth will not solely be domestically. I believe that foreign capital inflows to the banking sector should be handled within this framework. In 2005, while the balance sheet of the banking sector grew in size, the share of TL-denominated assets and liabilities increased. As the crowding-out effect of the public sector diminished, the share of credits in assets continued to increase. This indicates that the banking sector has come close to its fundamental function. Despite the fact that the rapid upsurge in credit volume has increased the credit risk, the decline in the NPL ratio and the high provisioning policy adopted by the sector during the same period are considered as favorable developments. Meanwhile, the monitoring of credit risk,  BIS Review 68/2006  3  which may increase due to the policies on credit allocation that are likely to be eased in the growth period of the economy, is of great importance.

Given the severe stress, and how it was transmitted across borders, it would have been easy, and incorrect, to decide that the future lay in protectionism, barriers and more closed national systems. That would have been the wrong way to go. Fortunately, world leaders at the G20 made the choice to keep the system open, avoid fragmentation, with the cost and risk that brings, and instead chose stronger international regulatory standards and a much enhanced regulatory architecture based around the Financial Stability Board and the associated standard setting bodies. That system has been proven to work, notably by the resilience of the system in 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  the face of the Covid crisis. Seeking to fragment the international system cannot be justified in light of the success of the post financial crisis approach. I welcome the recent announcement to of the three-year extension of temporary equivalence for clearing houses. We will continue to work in strong co-operation with EU authorities to ensure risks in in clearing houses are well managed, as we do with other authorities in other countries. But I have to say that maintaining a shared deep commitment to open markets and open financial systems with strong and appropriate regulatory standards and cooperation to support them means that there need be no time limit to this equivalence. Adrian, the strong dialogue we maintain has played its part in enhancing the resilience of our financial system. I look forward to that continuing. Thank you.
We have felt some concern that the credit expansion and increases in property prices could go too far, with the risk that demand might fall sharply if there is an adjustment further ahead. However, these risks are difficult to quantify and they may lie far in the future. In this way, they do not easily fit into our usual analysis and forecasting work. We Executive Board members have nevertheless considered in our discussions that we should in some way take these risks into account, and this has been one of the pieces of the puzzle that explains our recent actions. In practice, it is often difficult to estimate how lasting various structural changes and other economic developments will be. For example, both the Riksbank and other forecasters have been uncertain as to whether the strong productivity in recent years has been temporary or a more lasting change. Conducting monetary policy that has substantial stabilisation policy ambitions could thus risk reinforcing cyclical fluctuations rather than subduing them. The conditions for succeeding with an active monetary policy are also complicated in practice since it takes time before the full effects of interest rate adjustments are visible. One therefore should not expect monetary policy to be able to fine tune economic activity to any great extent. There are also other reasons that limit the ambition to stabilise the real economy. The flexible application of our monetary policy must not diminish confidence in the inflation target.

With respect to welfare benefits, the Stability Programme reflects the 1.6% settlement for the revaluation of public pensions, both in 2018 and 2019. This increase will be 3% this year, 2018, in the case of minimum and non-contributory pensions. I shall later return to this. In any event, given the trend growth in the number of pensions and the substitution effect arising from the new pensions replacing those that are terminated, which are generally higher than was earlier the case, the forecast growth in the budget earmarked for welfare benefits in 2018 (3.7%) may also be surpassed. Among the remaining expenditure items for this year, goods and services purchases will notably continue to be contained, and interest payments to decline, while there will be a significant increase in public investment. This latter development is partly in response to the inclusion in 2018 of the expenditure associated with amounts for which the government may be liable under the insolvency-related legal proceedings currently affecting certain toll motorways. But even after adjusting for this effect, public investment is expected to be more expansionary than other items, as was the case in 2017. All told, public investment is expected to stand at 2.1% of GDP in 2018, excluding the temporary effect arising from the above-mentioning legal proceedings, a level far below the average for the previous two decades, which was 3.6%. Overall, it may be concluded that the attainment of the budget deficit target for this year, namely 2.2% of GDP, is subject to significant risks.
Any shift in inflation objectives at times of economic stress invites the charge of opportunism: if you are willing to raise inflation objectives from 2% to 4%, then why not 6% or 10%? Such thinking puts at risk the hard-won credibility of the existing monetary policy frameworks. To the extent such shifts are motivated on public finance grounds, they suggest that monetary policy is subordinate to fiscal concerns. And concerns about deflation risks should be addressed by refining the conduct of monetary policy, rather than redefining its objective. In particular, it is crucial that the objective of price stability is pursued symmetrically. Of course, asymmetries may exist in the structure of the economy. Examples include: any lower bound on nominal interest rates; and an aversion to falls in nominal wages. These need to be taken into account in policy making. But this does not imply that monetary policy should demonstrate greater aversion to deflation rather than inflation (or vice versa). An excessive and asymmetric fear of deflation explains in part why interest rates may have been kept “too low for too long” prior to the financial crisis. Pursuing price stability in a symmetric manner would guard against the danger of repeating this mistake. To sum up, I believe that the recent financial crisis has not challenged the principle according to which the goal of monetary policy should be price stability. In practice, this is recognised  7  See: e.g. S.S. Roach (2010).

And yet, one might think perversely, we have also swung from an over abundant supply of credit to a much more restrictive supply of new credit. The global insurance industry provides an interesting contrast with banking in this respect. For sure, it too is capable of systematically misjudging risks. But when a shift in risk appreciation and pricing occurs, the reinsurance industry often separates the run off of old portfolios containing mispriced contracts from the establishment of new vehicles, capitalised separately to take advantage of attractive terms on new business. And for regular insurance, many contracts are annual, so adversely priced business can run off fairly quickly. Banking  2  BIS Review 38/2008  typically works quite differently. Banks around the world are carrying portfolios of term loans that are the legacy of the boom years. There is uncertainty – amongst banks’ management, shareholders and funders – about the degree of fundamental impairment in those portfolios. New loans are booked to the same balance sheets. And so many banks face a choice between, on the one hand, conserving capital and liquidity to support legacy portfolios; and, on the other hand, deploying capital and liquidity to write new business on what some see as the attractive terms and conditions now available. The banking system simply is not structured routinely to insulate new business from the legacy of past mistakes; funding and capital are fungible. This predicament may be exacerbated by other features of the current environment.
The recent increase in inflation was to a large extent due to exceptional and short-lived factors – such as particularly adverse weather conditions in some parts of the euro area, which led to increases in food prices – as well as to the anticipated influences of indirect taxes and base effects resulting from developments in energy prices. Taking these factors into account, there is no evidence so far of a significant impact on the price level as a result of the euro cash changeover. Nor do we expect substantial effects in the months to come. There is reason to assume that the physical introduction of the euro banknotes and coins will strengthen competition, thereby supporting the maintenance of price stability. Beyond the short term, the outlook for inflation remains favourable. One important concern, however, relates to forthcoming wage negotiations. If wage moderation is maintained, as we currently expect and in any case consider warranted in order to foster employment growth, and assuming that other determining factors also develop favourably, annual inflation rates should fall safely below 2% this year. They should also remain at levels consistent with price stability. Finally, let me underline the importance which the Governing Council attaches to the Stability and Growth Pact and its strengthening through diligent implementation of the appropriate procedures. The responsibility for these procedures lies with the European Commission and the ministers of finance.

Today, we can look back on a period of more than three years in which the ECB has successfully pursued a stability-oriented single monetary policy serving more than 300 million citizens. And we all have the tangible proof of Monetary Union in our pockets, following a highly successful cash changeover process which represents another historic milestone in the process of European monetary integration. Indeed, already now the level of cash payments in euro is close to 100% in all the countries of the euro area. This means that the cash changeover can be considered as good as complete, i.e. well before 28 February, after which date the legacy currencies of the euro will no longer be legal tender in any euro area country. Together with the Treaties founding the European Communities, the Maastricht Treaty is one of the most important and visionary legal texts in the history of the European integration process. With the euro, the Treaty offered tangible proof of what the vision of European Union is about, namely bringing the people of Europe closer together and ultimately facilitating their lives. Having been instrumental in laying the foundations for the euro, the Maastricht Treaty will remain vital and indispensable for the successful functioning of EMU. The medium-term macroeconomic policy framework laid down in the Maastricht Treaty has contributed to a stable macroeconomic environment, and will continue to do so. In addition, the Treaty provides for a clear allocation of responsibilities between EU institutions and Member States, as well as clear mandates for all involved.
Page 6  Where analysis of monetary transmission matters is in calibrating any policy response. The MPC needs to ensure that the monetary impulse transmitted through asset prices helps navigate the narrow course between, on the one hand, preventing above target inflation from becoming embedded in expectations and, on the other, introducing unnecessary volatility into activity and employment, and adding to any undershoot of the inflation target at longer horizons. Crucial to this is ensuring monetary developments do not accommodate price, wage and cost setting behaviour inconsistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. And one aspect of that assessment is how the evolution of the stock of assets held by the central bank as a result of QE plays out. At the Bank of England, we stopped buying assets through the creation of central bank reserves last December. The process of shrinking the QE asset portfolio – so-called quantitative tightening (QT) – commenced in February, as we ceased reinvestment of maturing bonds from that portfolio. And we are currently considering whether – and, if so, how – to begin sales of gilts held in that portfolio. (The MPC has promised to report further on its prospective approach to sales at its August meeting.) Thinking through the implications of QT for the overall stance of monetary policy is therefore key to our current policy analysis. I hope to shed some light on my considerations in that regard. Future: What implications can we draw for the future?

BIS Review 38/1997  -5-  The level of unemployment to which an economy returns when inflation expectations have been adjusted to actual inflation is usually referred to as equilibrium unemployment. It is immune to monetary policy and determined primarily by structural factors such as demographic changes, technology and the institutional conditions in the labour market. What I have just described is the textbook model for the long-term Phillips curve. The message is that an economy has a path for long-term growth that is determined by underlying, structural factors. Under certain circumstances, fiscal and monetary policy are capable of influencing fluctuations in activity around this trend, though one should not expect to be able to fine-tune demand. A basic idea behind a monetary policy focused on price stability is that the economy is capable of sustained growth along this long-term path. If this path accommodates a rapid increase in production, growth will be high; but if potential output rises slowly, actual growth will be weak even if monetary policy were to be very expansionary and possibly affect the situation temporarily. A very important conclusion from this is that permanently low unemployment cannot be achieved by accepting permanently high inflation. In other words, sustained employment cannot be generated by implementing an expansionary monetary policy and disregarding unemployment’s equilibrium level or the potential level of output.
Here, everything was well thoughtout, consistent and done so as to fulfil a clear vision of e-government that was supposed to be citizenfriendly and to make their life easier. And Global was not in the wrong. He is still satisfied with his choice. It is worth mentioning that he hesitated over the decision to move. The final straw was an argument at Warsaw district office where Global had gone to in order to obtain some certificate. The certificate was ready, but Global – who had paid the stamp duty by an online transfer – had no proof of  BIS Review 90/2006  1  payment. Without such confirmation the officer would not issue the certificate. The argument reached its climax when the officer shouted out his anger: ‘If only you had paid in cash at the counter here, there would be no problem now!’ Today, in September 2026, John Global recalls this situation with a tint of amusement. How things have changed since that day, and how much easier life is now. Today, administrative issues take him only several minutes monthly, because all these are handled via the Internet, regardless whether located in Asia or Europe. And officers are doing their utmost to provide services to John Global efficiently, as the contract for these services will only be renewed when customers are satisfied with them. Needless to say, customer satisfaction surveys take place via the Internet. As for Global's satisfaction with his metabolism, he can measure it himself.

It has long been known that projects usually end in failure not because they are bad but because somebody does not understand what his or her role in the process involves, or even why this process exists. Communication improves the level of understanding and acceptance on the part of all stakeholders. It helps create commitment observed in diasporas, and also creates room for internal motivation. It was as early as at the beginning of the 21 century that public administration in Singapore knew the art of project implementation, which institutionalised the role of communication in project planning. 1 p.m. Lunch with a friend. Global brought him a small gift from his weekend family trip to an exotic country. It was a real bargain, and it only took a few minutes to arrange for the trip on the way home from the Friday visit to a modern art gallery. Both Global and his wife are lovers of modern art. All they had to do was to get in touch with their virtual travel agent and they could both go through the offers displayed on the screen in his car, consulting an e-expert. They decided to go for the most exotic trip, which was also quite affordable. Global competition does its job. Their only concern was not to miss the plane. Global and his friend do not waste their time ordering meals, as an e-waiter has already sent suggested menu to their communicators (in Global’s case, consulted with his e-dietician).
Figure 2 CPI inflation around the world (1)  Commodity prices (5)  (annual change, percent)  12  12  10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4 05  06  07  08  09  10  11  U.S.  Eurozone  Latin America (2)  Emerging Asia (3)  (monthly index, Jan.00-Sep.11=100)  250 200 150 100 50 0 00  02  Emerging Europe (4)  04  06  08  10  FAO foodstuffs WTI oil  (1) Regions weighted at PPP. Data through August 2011. (2) CPI includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. (3) CPI includes China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan. (4) CPI includes the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey. (5) Data through September 2011. Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC Data, IMF and statistics bureaus of respective countries. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Figure 3 Inflation indicators (annual change, percent) 10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4 06  07  08  CPI  09  10  11  CPI excluding food and energy  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).

This lower growth, beyond the possible effects of the adverse external scenario, responds mostly to the economy converging to trendconsistent growth rates, which we estimate to be around 5%. We are facing a very complex external scenario. In last Thursday’s monetary policy meeting communiqué we said that the deepening of international economic trends could shape a more adverse scenario than the baseline assumed in the September Monetary Policy Report, with potential consequences for growth and inflation in Chile, as well as for the orientation of monetary policy. Accordingly, we are paying close attention to external developments and we have the necessary flexibility to act whenever necessary. However, I would like to pause to examine two aspects. First, it is important for monetary policy not to react too little, too late. But just as important it is that it does not act haphazardly. A monetary policy that keeps changing signs because of mistaken diagnoses loses credibility. Potential delays can be compensated by being aggressive. That was the case between end of 2008 and beginning of 2009. We could have reduced the rate a couple of months earlier, but because inflation was so high and the economic outlook was so uncertain, it could have hurt the credibility of our monetary policy. In this context, a policy rate cut would have ultimately been slower and less effective. Once  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  the severity of the situation was confirmed, we reduced the rate with unprecedented force and with much success.
This indicates that significant structural rigidities have prevented an appropriate adjustment of wages. Taking all of the above into account, at its last meeting on 6 February 2003, the Governing Council concluded that following the decision to lower the ECB key rates by 50 basis points in December, the monetary policy stance remained appropriate to preserve a favourable outlook for price stability in the medium term. Consequently, the ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged. Their already low level should help to counterbalance the negative effects on economic activity that currently stem from the high degree of worldwide uncertainty and should, therefore, contribute to a sustainable economic recovery in the course of 2003. For the time being, we still assume that the high degree of uncertainty will decline in the course of this year. However, at this juncture it is not possible to assess how the ongoing geopolitical developments will affect the world economy and, in particular, the euro area economy. The Governing Council will continue to monitor closely all factors that may affect the prospects for inflation in the euro area. The euro area outlook will also very much depend on progress in other policy areas. As regards fiscal policy, full adherence to the fiscal policy framework laid down in the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact provides a sound basis for limiting the risk of fiscal imbalances occurring and thus contributes significantly to favourable financing conditions for the private sector. At the same time, it preserves an appropriate medium-term orientation for fiscal policy.

At a more general level, the lack of a level playing field in the enforcement of the new financial standards has a potential to fragment the global financial system and to lead to a suboptimal allocation of capital of liquidity and to overconsumption of scarce resources, such as the safe assets used as collateral by financial market participants. OTC derivatives are a case in point. I therefore strongly welcome the recent agreement reached between the European Commission and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on a common path forward regarding a number of measures on how to approach cross-border issues. In this context, the notion of substituted compliance is a useful tool, as it will help to reduce the risk of duplication and potential frictions of rules. Clearly, convergence at a very granular level may not be achieved. It may not even be desirable, as specific differences may reflect the specific institutional and regulatory frameworks in the jurisdictions concerned. Nevertheless, it needs to be ensured that the outcome in all material aspects is similar. A key objective of the G20 mandate for OTC derivatives reform was to ensure effective systemic risk reduction in these markets. It is unlikely that we will achieve this objective by converging on the lowest common denominator rather than by achieving common best practices. However, this may be the result if substantive regulatory differences are not addressed and consequently, opportunities for regulatory arbitrage open up.