samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In turn, the Governing Council adopted a more precise, quantitative definition of its objective. It aims for an annual rate of inflation of “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term” as measured for the euro area as a whole. The medium-term orientation of monetary policy is important, because in the short term 1  actual inflation can fluctuate due to temporary factors, such as spikes in oil prices or changes in indirect taxes. At the same time, it is also worth noting that the focus is on the euro area as a whole, and not on particular member states within it. But why should monetary policy focus on price stability? In the view of classical economists, money is neutral. On this view, the quantity of money in an economy affects nominal variables, such as the price level, the exchange rate and the nominal interest rate. However, changes in the money supply have no effect on real variables, such as output, incomes or relative prices. Monetary policy has, within this theoretical framework, no effect on the real economy at all. Today, most economists would consider that the neutrality of money holds only in the long run. In the long run, the economy reaches its steady-state equilibrium, with output at its potential. Any monetary expansion at this point, with the economy operating at full capacity, would merely push up prices. This is evident during episodes of hyperinflation, where rapid increases in the money supply lead to ever-increasing consumer prices.

Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula: Modernising Zambia’s payment system Remarks by Dr Tukiya Kankasa-Mabula, Deputy Governor Administration of the Bank of Zambia, at the Ecobank Launch of Financial Products, Lusaka, 16 December 2009. *  *  *  • Members of the Ecobank Zambia Limited Board of Directors present; • The Managing Director of Ecobank Zambia Limited, Mrs Charity Lumpa; • Members of the Diplomatic Corps; • Ecobank Zambia Limited Customers; • Management and Staff of Ecobank Zambia Limited; • Members of the Press; • Distinguished Invited Guests; • Ladies and Gentlemen. It is with great joy and gratitude that I stand to address you at this important launch of the “Ecobank Rapid Transfer” and the “Non-Resident African Account”. I am informed that the two products are designed to transfer money faster and in real time while meeting the needs of customers resident in countries other than those where their accounts are domiciled. I am also pleased that these two products are aimed at promoting the efficient transmission of remittances at an affordable cost. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to briefly highlight the importance of remittances to our economy. Remittances are increasingly growing to be one of the most important sources of finance in Zambia. Such funds are not simply an expression of fondness by people in the diaspora to assist their families in adverse situations. They also represent an important source of finance that augments capital inflows and investments in the economy.
The staff of the ECB and the national central banks have already been providing twice-yearly projections to the Governing Council since the start of Monetary Union. Starting with the December 2000 issue of the ECB Monthly Bulletin, these projections are now regularly made available to the public alongside other indicators and other forms of analysis underlying the ECB's monetary policy decisions. Let me emphasise that the publication of projections reflects the ECB's commitment to openness and transparency in sharing the information and analyses underlying its monetary policy decisions. Furthermore, it does not in any way change the ECB's monetary policy strategy. The projections are only one element of the second pillar considered by the Governing Council. Economic projections can only provide a partial summary of the state of the economy. They cannot possibly contain all the information needed to take appropriate policy decisions. In particular, the results do not in themselves reveal the nature of a shock hitting the economy. The appropriate monetary policy to maintain price stability should always depend on the specific circumstances and the nature and magnitude of a threat. For example, the appropriate response to a one-off increase in oil prices may differ from that given to a wage-price spiral, even if both have the same impact on inflation projections. Therefore, projections must always be supplemented by economic assessments and a detailed analysis of individual indicators. The ECB's strategy has sometimes been criticised for being rather complex. However, we are convinced that a simple approach would not have been appropriate.

The prominent role of money is signalled by the announcement of a reference value for the annual rate of growth of the broad monetary aggregate M3. This reference value represents a visible public commitment to analysing and explaining monetary developments and their implications for price stability in detail. In December 2000, the Governing Council of the ECB reconfirmed the reference value of 4 1/2% annual growth. This rate should be consistent with price stability in the medium term. While the reference value plays an important role in monetary analysis, the assessment of the first pillar goes beyond the evaluation of the deviation of M3 growth from the reference value. It encompasses a variety of approaches which assign a central role to money because of the ultimately monetary nature of inflation, as well as a detailed analysis of the components and counterparts of M3. Thus, an in-depth analysis of the overall liquidity conditions in the euro area is provided. BIS Review 10/2001  1  Despite broad consensus on the fact that inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, the assessment of monetary developments alone does not give an accurate picture of the state of the economy and of the potential risks to price stability. Therefore, for a robust strategy, it is useful to analyse additional indicators relevant for future price stability and to combine them under a second pillar.
In this context, I think that the Bank of Albania should continue to maintain the leading role, in its field of responsibility and competence, related to this process, by providing the good example and its experience to the other authorities. Last, allow me to point out that the Bank of Albania has been and will continue to be an open and transparent institution. The strengthening and observance of this principle will become the fifth priority of my tasks. The Bank of Albania is able and should expand further the range of the economic information it publishes, and increase its presence in the tables where economic issues are discussed. Honourable chairman, Honourable members of commission, By presenting and motivating my request for the term renovation as the Governor of the Bank of Albania, allow me to re-affirm, that my 30-year-work in both the public and private sector of financial industry, the experience in executive positions, and results of my work, are a guarantee in fulfilling this duty. The reliance of this distinguished committee, will serve as a further motivation in giving my contribution to developing the Bank of Albania. Thank you! 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches

Zdeněk Tůma: The role of the EBRD in the transition process towards fully fledged market economies Statement by Mr Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Czech National Bank and EBRD Alternate Governor, at the 15th Annual Meeting of the EBRD Board of Governors, London, 22 May 2006. *  *  *  Mr Chairman, Mr President, Governors, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is an honour to address the Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors in London and I wish to express my appreciation also to the Government of United Kingdom and to the City of London for their hospitality. We are today participating in the fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors and we can look back on these years with considerable satisfaction regarding the role of the EBRD in the transition process towards fully fledged market economies. Many countries - including my country, the Czech Republic – have witnessed significant and considerable political and economic transformation. I am glad to say that the European Bank is one of those successful institutions that have significantly contributed to this process. The Board of Governors has today approved the Bank's strategy for the period 2006 – 2010 – the Capital Resources Review 3. The new strategy reflects the successful transition achieved in the “Advanced Countries” and the Bank's activities are being focussed towards the South-Eastern and Eastern countries of its operations. We support this move. In Central Europe the Bank focuses on just a few sectors today.
Unless we are convinced, as I say, in general or in any particular case, that Beauty will in fact end up with Prince Charming, and not be condemned to long-term cohabitation with the Beast, then it would be better for Europe as a whole to delay until we were more confident of a happy ending. Investment will continue to flow to this country so long as we succeed in maintaining an environment offering attractive returns, and our macro-economic and supply-side policies are a much bigger factor in that than the exchange rate. Similarly the City will continue to flourish as Europe’s international financial capital so long as the strongest financial firms from all around the world continue to find it attractive to conduct their business here. I see no signs of that changing: indeed the international business of the City continues to increase; and that has very little to do with our national currency, or with an expectation that we will be among the first to merge it into the Euro. So long as we are properly prepared, as we will be, and so long as we have in place efficient infra-structure, including for payments and settlements, as I assure you we will have - in or out, then the Euro, if it comes, will be more of an opportunity than a threat to the City.

This came not a moment too soon. In the immediate post-war period, the UK faced pressing financial infrastructure problems – the so-called “Macmillan gaps”. These gaps referred the inability of small firms to finance themselves with long-term loans. If these gaps sound strangely familiar, then they should. The post-war Bank set about closing these Macmillan gaps with gusto. In 1945 it set up two new financing entities – the Finance Corporation for Industry (FCI) and the Industrial and Commercial Finance Corporation (ICFC). These were financially supported by banks and institutional investors, providing a platform for the supply of longer term funding and venture capital finance to small firms. In 1973, the two corporations combined to form Finance for Industry (FFI). During the early 1980s, the company was rebranded as Investors in Industry, commonly known as 3i. In 1987, the entity went public as 3i Group. This was not a flop. Arguably, 3i and its predecessors were one of the largest feathers in the Bank’s post-war cap, helping support generations of new businesses and start-ups. And those MacMillan gaps? Regrettably, the crisis has re-opened them. Today, small firms are once more starved of finance, including many here in Northern Ireland. Once again, the quest is on for a new financial infrastructure to help close these gaps. Through the 1980s and 1990s, there were further examples of the Bank stepping in to close structural financial gaps. When the UK’s high-value payment system started creaking in the early 1980s, the Bank designed and built a new, bullet-proof system.
We are, above all, interested in the question of whether banks are sufficiently capitalised in view of the aforementioned vulnerabilities, and are able to maintain their economically important functions such as lending despite incurring losses. Our stress tests confirm the relevance of the aforementioned vulnerabilities. They show that banks would suffer substantial losses in the event of an abrupt and steep interest rate rise combined with declining real estate prices. Affordability risks would materialise, meaning that numerous borrowers would no longer be able to pay their mortgage interest. Furthermore, many mortgages would be insufficiently covered, i.e. the mortgages concerned would no longer be fully secured by the value of the properties. In such a scenario, the capital ratios of numerous banks would drop below their target values and, in some cases, even below the regulatory minimum requirements. Equally, our stress tests underscore the importance of the capital buffers currently held by banks, which comprise voluntarily held buffers besides the capital required by statutory regulations. With these capital buffers, our assessments suggest that most banks would be capable of absorbing potential credit losses. In other words, we consider the resilience of most banks to be adequate. Current situation requires vigilance  Ladies and gentlemen, the fact that we consider banks’ capitalisation to be sufficient at present does not mean that we can relax with regard to the vulnerabilities on the mortgage and real estate markets. That the current situation is not more precarious is due not least to the measures taken in recent years (cf. slide 5).

To this end, it uses a variety of models and empirical approaches, and also conducts its own surveys. In addition, the SNB analyses economic indicators for Switzerland and abroad, and follows the assessments and forecasts of other institutions. KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the Swiss Federal Institute for Technology Zurich (ETH) is without doubt the best-known for economic analysis. It makes a significant contribution towards understanding the Swiss economy with its regular data surveys (for example, the survey of companies it has been systematically conducting since 1955), as well as its economic forecasts and special analyses. In doing so, KOF fulfils an important role for the SNB's monetary policy and, ultimately, for the greater good of our country. For this reason, the SNB has been connected with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute since its beginning in the 1930s. Both institutions maintain a stimulating exchange of information and ideas to this day. With high-quality economic analysis closely linked to scientific research, KOF Swiss Economic Institute will continue to make a valuable contribution in future - to ensure an even better understanding of the Swiss economy. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
This is the most tangible way to ensure a high level of competency in the wealth management industry. Sound market conduct Competency without integrity is useless at best, and dangerous at worst. A second imperative for successful private banking is therefore to strengthen market conduct. At its core, private banking is about trust. This means acting with integrity, putting the interests of the client first and safeguarding the confidentiality of the client at all times. Let me highlight two areas for improvement. First, we are seeing increasing cases of mis-selling and mis-conduct in the private banking space. Such practices are ultimately self-defeating. Wealth managers must move away from a transaction-driven approach of pushing products to a client-centred approach that focuses on customised advice to meet long-term needs. Private banks must move away from remuneration structures that rely primarily on commissions, or which are biased towards rewarding staff for recommending certain investment products. Dealing fairly with customers must be made a priority. The Private Banking Code of Conduct developed by the industry sets out principles for proper business conduct by private banks and their staff, and seeks to enhance transparency to clients. MAS’ Guidelines on Fair Dealing emphasise the responsibilities of the Board and Senior Management of financial institutions to deliver fair dealing outcomes to customers and instill a culture of fair dealing that goes beyond compliance with regulatory requirements. Second, the aggressive poaching of private bankers and rapid churning of professional staff are not healthy for the industry.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Bank Negara Malaysia attaches great importance to payment system efficiency and will also continue to promote its security, reliability and efficiency, together with the industry and payment service providers, to foster an innovative payments industry. The FPX platform is an excellent example of this collaborative effort, and I wish to commend MEPS, and the pilot group of banks and corporations for their tremendous effort and commitment in developing the FPX solution. The launching of the FPX marks an important milestone in the development of Malaysia’s payments system. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 63/2004
Sources: Central Bank of Chile, Bloomberg, FAO and National Statistics Institute (INE). Figure 13 Relative prices of foodstuffs  Gasoline price in pesos  (index, January 2007=100)  (weekly index, 01/01/2007 and 06/07/2010=100)  135  135  120  120  130  130  115  115  125  125  120  120  110  110  115  115  105  105  110  110  100  100  105  105  100  100  95  95  95  95  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  90  CPIX1 foodstuffs/CPIX1 CPIX1 foodstuffs/CPI CPIX1 foodstuffs/CPIX1 w/o foodstuffs  t  t+16  t+32  2007  t+48  90 t+64  2010  Sources: Central Bank of Chile, ENAP and National Statistics Institute (INE). BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Figure 14 Marginal cost of electric generation (*) (dollars per MWh) 350  350  300  300  250  250  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  (*) Alto Jahuel subsystem. Source: Center for the Economic Charge Delivery (CEDEC) of the Central Interconnected System.

On the other hand, it is also possible that the different paces of recovery between emerging and developed economies and the exchange rate tensions in place result in a delay in the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus, causing an immediate increase in global inflation and calling for more aggressive monetary policy responses later on. Conclusions Today monetary policy conduct is facing an important challenge. Headline inflation is near the target and trend inflation is back to above-zero figures, albeit still substantially below 3 percent. However, inflationary pressures have increased globally raising inflation forecasts, spreading concerns about future inflation in the different economies, including our own. The recovery process of the Chilean economy has consolidated and output gaps are closed. As I said a while ago, the increases we have seen in international prices of foodstuffs and oil will result in total inflation surpassing the upper bound of the tolerance range during some quarters. Our main task today is to ensure that the convergence of trend inflation to the target occurs with as few setbacks as possible. Monetary policy conduct will aim at the inflationary trend remaining in levels consistent with the tolerance range, so that towards the end of the projection horizon headline inflation stands around 3 percent. There are important risks, though. The recent experience with international price shocks has shown that preoccupation per se will not solve their inflationary consequences.
As the transparency and institutionalization are critical qualifications of prudent policies to attain a sound macroeconomic environment, the implementation of full fledged inflation targeting will certainly support further macroeconomic and financial stability in the Turkish economy. Dear Guests, As a central banker I must confess that conducting monetary policy in an uncertain economic environment is not an easy task and never will be. Distortions in the financial system further increase the uncertainty in the functioning of the economy, and the reform process in the financial system is in fact never-ending to sweep away these uncertainties. Therefore, there will always be steps to be taken toward attaining more transparent and efficient financial markets. And policy coordination between institutions on international and national levels will certainly be the most important aspect of this dynamic process. Thank you very much. BIS Review 38/2005  7

After growth equal to or higher than 3% over the three years spanning 2015 to 2017, and which eased somewhat last year to around 2.5%, the latest macroeconomic projections of the Banco de España, published last December, envisage the continuation in the coming years of above-potential economic growth, enabling the still-high level of unemployment to continue to be absorbed. However, the rate of expansion of GDP is expected to slow gradually in the coming years. This easing in growth essentially reflects the progressive exhaustion of the positive effect of various exogenous factors that have been operating in recent years, such as the expansionary demand-side policies (monetary policy, in particular) and strong world growth, which has already shown signs of dwindling to some extent in 2018. Beyond this baseline scenario, the downside risks to growth have been increasing. These risks, whose source is essentially external, include a possible resurgence of financial strains associated with the US economic policy mix and its potential effects on the more vulnerable emerging economies, and a hypothetical escalation in protectionist measures, which might affect the vibrancy of trade and global activity. In the European arena, the political vagaries in some European countries (particularly in Italy) and the uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit entail additional sources of risk. In Spain, the current parliamentary fragmentation also adds uncertainty over the future course of our economic policies.