samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Otherwise there is the danger that the burden of the adjustment will be born disproportionally by the traded goods sector that might have detrimental medium term consequences. While the near term outlook in the global economy is rather gloomy, the situation in Iceland is quite different. A prolonged growth phase was followed by one year, 2002, of a minor contraction, but at present we foresee a new period of growth when our task will be to maintain economic balance. The Central Bank is determined to keep inflation under control during the coming years of extensive activity in the economy, thus maximising the long term benefits of the extension of the export base. Ladies and Gentlemen The structure and diversity of the Icelandic economy has changed radically in recent decades and the legal framework has been modernized. Only a few decades ago the Icelandic economy had a narrow production base when fishing and fish processing were by far the most important activity. Today, the Icelandic economy has a broad base. Fishing continues to be important, but various industries have also developed, exploiting among other things the vast opportunities offered by the revolution in information technology. Strong companies successfully compete in the international market in various fields, including among other things communications and financial services. The liberalization and opening up of the economy demand close cooperation with other nations. In that respect it will be important to cooperate with businesses and public authorities in Europe, not the least in Germany.

Much reflection has also been carried out on the matter within the Swiss National Bank in order to better understand this difficult period in our own history. The postwar period was characterised by a fierce determination to start afresh, to avoid the reappearance of the misleading thinking that had led to pre-war protectionism, and to reconstruct the economies that lay in ruins. A phase of intensive work began, with the aim of reorganising the international monetary order. Still isolated, both economically and politically, Switzerland participated in the efforts without becoming a member of the Bretton Woods Institutions. The gradual liberalisation  BIS Review 40/2007  3  of payments and trade rapidly led to a period of prosperity but also to a situation of disequilibrium in the operation of the international monetary system. Inflation and speculative movements of funds became common features during the 1960s and the monetary arena was disturbed by multiple devaluations, particularly in Europe. Suspension of gold convertibility for the dollar, in 1971, hailed the collapse of the system of fixed exchange rates that had been put into place after the war. Faced with a massive flow of speculative funds, the SNB was forced to abandon stabilisation of the Swiss franc in 1973. The transition to sustained floating for the Swiss franc was definitely the most important change of direction in the monetary policy strategy pursued by our bank in its hundred years of existence.
Speaking about the Macedonian economy and countries from Western Balkan region in terms of facing the new global cycle, we have to mention some strong points and some still existing weaknesses. Generally, sound and stable banks have additionally strengthened due to the new capital requirements during the last several years, as well as due to the stronger efforts for better nonperforming loans management and resolution. Current account deficit region-wide has reduced as a result of the favorable price impact, in line with commodity prices slowdown and in the Macedonian case, due to the contribution of new companies with foreign capital that significantly changed our export structure into higher value added products. We have seen positive results in the dealing with unemployment as one of the main problems in the region. In Macedonia, it has significantly reduced due to new jobs creation, measures against informal economy and active labor market measures. However, the countries of the region should continue strengthening their potential growth, productivity and competitiveness. The total factor productivity growth in many emerging economies registered a slowdown during the crisis mainly reflecting the slower growth and technological progress in advanced economies. However, the emerging economies must strengthen their activities towards higher efficiency on all levels of operation, building institutional capacity and further implementation of structural reforms that all together should improve total factor productivity contribution and boost the overall convergence towards advanced economies.

Dimitar Bogov: Around a decade after the crisis - heading to the new global cycle and monetary policy normalization Opening speech by Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the 7th Annual Research Conference: Around a Decade after the Crisis: Heading to the New Global Cycle and Monetary Policy Normalization, Ohrid, 12 April 2018. * * *  Honorable Governors, Your Excellences, Dear representatives of central banks, Ladies and gentlemen Let me welcome you all to our 7th Annual Research Conference this year in the beautiful city of Ohrid. Considering the current global surrounding, this year’s conference “Around a Decade after the Crisis: Heading to the New Global Cycle and Monetary Policy Normalization” addresses a relatively long period since the onset of the global crisis and the need to face new challenges. At this point, the questions to ask ourselves and to discuss during the conference would be: how strong and sustainable is the ongoing global recovery, what are the reasons behind the subdued inflation, what should be the pace of monetary policy normalization, are the banks now more resilient, are we better prepared to prevent the risks? Maybe they are simple questions, however, like in many other cases in real life and a real economic framework, there are no simple answers. The current global economic recovery is broadly spread across different regions in the world and associated with positive economic sentiment indicators.
Lucas Papademos: Eurosystem and Bank of Russia cooperation programme Introductory statement by Mr Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the European Central Bank, on the occasion of launching the Eurosystem and Bank of Russia cooperation programme on banking supervision and internal audit, Moscow, 20 March 2008. *  *  *  It is a pleasure for me to be here in Moscow today, together with my esteemed colleague First Deputy Chairman Melikyan of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and His Excellency Ambassador Marc Franco, Head of the Delegation of the European Commission to Russia. I would first like to thank First Deputy Chairman Melikyan for his kind opening remarks and all those who have contributed to the organisation of this ceremony. I would also like to greet the representatives of the eight national central banks of the Eurosystem who accompany me here today, marking their strong institutional commitment to and support for this cooperation programme: the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banca d’Italia, the Banque de France, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the Suomen Pankki-Finlands Bank. Today, we are taking a further step that advances the increasingly close cooperation between the Bank of Russia and the Eurosystem, by signing a protocol which accompanies the contract for the Eurosystem cooperation programme with the Bank of Russia that was signed by Ambassador Franco earlier today.

Over the past few months, the staff of our institutions have been in very close contact, preparing together the terms of the contract and finding appropriate solutions to a rather diverse set of challenges. I would like to ask you, Mr Chairman, to extend our warmest thanks to the staff of the Bank of Russia for their efforts to address all pertinent issues. The new three-year cooperation programme will start on 1 April and will focus on banking supervision and internal audit. In the area of banking supervision, the Eurosystem will support the Bank of Russia in its gradual implementation of the internationally accepted principles of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision that are commonly known as the Basel II framework. The financial market turmoil that emanated from the US subprime mortgage crisis has highlighted, among other things, the importance of transparency and of sophisticated and effective risk management standards and practices in banks. The Basel II framework provides an advanced approach to capital measurement and capital standards. It represents the regulatory response to the increasingly complex and globally integrated financial markets, where credit risks are often passed from the originators of bank loans to a wide range of investors, instead of remaining on the books of the originating banks. Indeed, the Basel II framework was conceived to support banks in the implementation of advanced risk management standards with the overall aim of improving the stability and soundness of the financial system in all the economies around the world.
This has been further exacerbated by the low value addition of the agriculture sector in the economy. While the contribution of the crop sector amounts only to 14 percent of GDP, the individual contribution by the sub-crops has been negligible with tea contributing 1 percent, rubber 0.4 percent, coconut 1 percent and paddy 3 percent. Hence, even if the output of agriculture is doubled, it would not make a significant contribution to country’s wealth creation. If agriculture has its limited capacity for an accelerated growth, why not concentrate on industry? This may be a pertinent issue to be addressed at this stage. Certainly, unlike the agriculture, which is faced with the limitation of land, industry does not have any capacity or demand limitations. The nonavailability of raw materials or essential inputs or even the domestic demand for the output does no longer inhibit industrial growth. With globalization of trade and services and the advancements in information and communication technology (ICT), the previous bottlenecks for industrial growth have been efficiently sorted out. In today’s context, industrial outputs do not belong to a particular nation or country. They are jointly held products to which many nations or countries would have contributed.

These collections that have been built since the earliest days of our Bank over a period of more than five decades aim to foster greater understanding on the history of our currencies and of our economy and financial system, and also represents our support to contemporary art in Malaysia and thus contribute towards preserving the heritage of our country. Allow me now to invite Yang Amat Berhormat, Dato’ Sri Mohd. Najib bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak to deliver his address and to officially launch Sasana Kijang. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
2  BIS Review 24/2006  …and a financial crisis How did the banks react to the new deregulated environment? Now they could set their own prices and grant loans as they wished. One might say that the bank management saw the opportunities more clearly than the risks. They wanted to obtain market shares and increase their income. The general public’s pent-up demand for credit was substantial when the credit regulations were abolished and high inflation made it more profitable to borrow than to save. The 1980s were also a period of strong economic growth, which contributed to the credit demand enduring even after the earlier pent-up need had been satisfied. There was thus a rapid credit boom over a number of years. Between 1985 and 1990 the general public’s loans from banks increased from 75% to 115% of GDP. A substantial part of the borrowed money was used to buy property, which led to property prices being pushed up beyond what was essentially justified. In this situation it is of course important to use monetary policy and fiscal policy to tighten the economy. However, at that time Sweden had a fixed exchange rate pegged to a basked of international currencies, primarily the US dollar. Monetary policy – the interest rate – had to balance the short-term capital flows and could not be used to influence domestic demand. Nor was fiscal policy tightened to cool down the overheated economy.

I would like to assure the public, that we will be consistent in our disciplined approach and we will continue to follow our plan for reforms in the banking sector focusing not on the issues of the past but on addressing effectively the challenges of the future in order to maintain financial stability and integrate successfully in the European financial infrastructure. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Demand from the U.S. used to be the key driver for global oil prices. This is no longer the case. Research has shown that the Asia-Oceania region is now the world’s leading consumer of petroleum and other liquid fuels11. Recognising this, CSRC Vice Chairman Fang Xinghai accurately reflected in May 2016 that China is now “facing a chance of a lifetime to become a global pricing centre for commodities”12. 9 The emerging trend highlights that Shanghai and Singapore are facing an important crossroad ahead. As international financial centres in Asia, we can strategically position ourselves to play key roles in shaping the new Asian financial landscape. Both cities are the gateways to two of the most important economic regions in Asia – China and ASEAN:  The China story is a familiar and also fascinating one. By 2050, China could account for one-third of the world’s economy. China’s banking system could grow to become the largest in the world within 4 years by 20205. Today, global financial institutions are paying close attention to China’s increasing importance in global markets. As China’s financial markets progressively liberalise, their global influence will likely extend further. For a start, China’s 10 trillion stock market and 9 trillion interbank bond market, and this is in USD, will likely be included into global stock and bond indices over the next two years. Re-balancing of portfolios by global investors will lead to an upsurge of financial flows into China, enhancing the internationalisation of China’s financial markets.

Jacqueline Loh: Shanghai and Singapore - synergies amidst a dynamic Asian financial landscape Keynote address by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Second Shanghai-Singapore Financial Forum, Shanghai, 30 November 2016. * * * Ladies and Gentlemen Introduction 1 Good afternoon, it is my pleasure to join you at the 2nd Shanghai-Singapore Financial Forum (SSFF). 2 In November last year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Shanghai Municipal Financial Services Office (Shanghai FSO) launched the inaugural SSFF. That was a significant and important milestone. As the Chinese saying goes, 二人同心，其利断金. The SSFF is more than just a forum. It is a reflection and commemoration of the longstanding relationship and cooperation between Shanghai and Singapore. Following last year’s success, both sides are keen to build on the good momentum achieved and bring our relationship to a higher plane. 3 The aspirations of both the MAS and Shanghai FSO are reflected in the theme for this year: “Shanghai and Singapore – A Partnership for a New Asian Financial Landscape” . Our hope is that both cities can work together to forge a stronger, more future-ready partnership ahead. This is important for both Shanghai and Singapore, which are international financial centres in the midst of a rapidly evolving Asian financial landscape. 4 Let me outline briefly what we have achieved together so far and highlight the synergies that we see ahead for both Shanghai and Singapore. I.
The aim is not that this measure will hold a special position in the same way as the CPIX has done. The idea is that the monetary policy discussion will focus more directly on the CPI. But there will certainly be reason to give a little extra emphasis to a measure like this from time to time. During periods when the repo rate is changed substantially it is important to have some grasp of how large the direct impact is on CPI inflation. This is how things have worked during the period since 2006, for example, when the Riksbank raised the repo rate in several stages. The measure can then differ substantially in the short term. If one looks at the inflation figures for April, the CPI and the CPIX increased by 3.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. 0.8 per cent of the one percentage point difference between the measures was due to interest rate changes and 0.2 per cent was due to changes in the value of the housing stock and in taxes. But nor can a measure that keeps interest rates constant provide an entirely perfect picture of inflation adjusted for the direct effects of monetary policy. Interest rates are not only affected by the Riksbank changing the repo rate. This applies above all to the long-term interest rates, but also the short-term ones. However, long-term interest rates carry relatively little weight in the interest rate index and the repo rate normally covaries fairly well with shortterm interest rates.

Being engaged internationally is, fortunately, a trait by which Norwegians are known. Maybe we do not always succeed in our endeavours. But the idea of not being engaged, of not using our influence, of not taking the long-term perspective, and instead just standing on the sidelines, is foreign to us. This Fund is global in the truest sense of the word, and it does have a say through its equity holdings, even if this influence is subject to clear limits. The authority to do so is laid down in the mandate and guidelines. It is a task that we have taken on with great commitment and a strong sense of purpose. The management of the Fund is of course subject to certain requirements. But when considering what these requirements should or should not comprise, it is important to tread carefully. Even though globalisation has reduced the emphasis on national borders, we must show caution when we invest in foreign markets – because when we do so, we are entering our neighbour’s house. For one thing, the distinction between ethics and politics may be different in other countries. For another, when we say that a company’s activities are in conflict with the ethical guidelines, we are not only pointing a finger at the company. We are also pointing a finger, albeit indirectly, at the laws and regulations in the country that permits those activities to continue – and we are pointing that finger as a representative of another state.
Thank you for your attention. 1 European Central Bank (2018), A quantitative analysis of the size of IMF resources, IRC task force on IMF  issues. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

Paul Tucker: Introductory remarks at the book launch for “Investing in change – the reform of Europe’s financial markets” Introductory remarks by Mr Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England, at the Association of Financial Markets in Europe book launch, London, 1 February 2012. *  *  *  AFME’s book is significant as it has reached beyond its own community – of investment and wholesale bankers. The contributions come from journalism, politics, academia, business, and central banking. Each of our communities carries some of the responsibility for the mess that engulfed the world’s financial system, inflicting hardship on households and businesses around the globe. That must continue to drive us as we work to devise new “rules of the game” for a better financial system. This evening, I want to dwell on just one of the guiding principles of the international reform programme: banks should not depend on a safety net from taxpayers. Of course, retail deposits – up to £ in this country – will continue to be insured. And we probably also need measures – possibly segregated accounts – that can protect the Temporary High Balances that arise when, for example, a person sells a house or receives a legacy. But regular creditors of banks should be at risk. Pretty much everything underway in international finance at present reflects the dynamics set in train by a progressive withdrawal of the safety net. Two points on how that will be delivered.
ELASTICITY (c)  SOURCES: Agencia Tributaria, State Budget 2019 and Banco de España. a Sum of shared taxes (personal income tax, corporate income tax, VAT and excise duties) plus effective Social Security contributions. b Immediate supply of VAT information. In 2019, the submission date for VAT self-assessments shall be brought forward from the 30th to the 20th each month. This will mean that, for that year, revenue takings will cover 13 months, instead of 12. c Historical elasticities estimated by the European Commission. Overall, the Draft Budget assumes growth in tax revenues and social contributions of 8.2%, in budgetary terms, as a result of the entry into force of the measures announced, the effect of the above-mentioned SII and the growth in the tax bases, which basically depend on the macroeconomic situation (see Chart 9). These government revenue estimates are subject to significant downside risks, in National Accounts terms, arising from various considerations. First, the higher revenues under the new VAT SII system are not passed through to National Accounts items. Under European law – specifically, Article 2 of Regulation (EC) No 2516/2000 – the impact on the general government deficit of taxes and social contributions must follow the accrual principle. This means that taxes should affect the deficit of the period in which the taxable events giving rise to the tax payments take place.

This matters, not for issues of inclusivity or political correctness, but because common, mutually agreed standards are key to facilitating capital flows internationally. And more efficient allocation of capital internationally is vital for the developed and developing countries alike. But we have to recognise, at once, that committees composed of 150 members from every country in the United Nations are unlikely to be effective. To be effective, the standard-setting groups will need to remain relatively small, albeit differently balanced. So we must find methods, in addition to adjusting Committee memberships, which allow us to secure the benefit of the experience of others from different backgrounds. To get this benefit we must create the right sort of opportunities for dialogue, and ensure there is sufficient capacity amongst emerging market countries to propose constructive solutions. Of course Singapore, as a major financial centre, is probably in a position to share skills with others rather than require assistance. Nonetheless, the point remains that emerging markets themselves need to formulate their opinions effectively and to be listened to by the key committees. Formulating an opinion requires both technical skills and organisation. The UK has been active in strengthening the regulatory skill set in Emerging Markets. As a major contributor to the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening (FIRST) initiative – a $ multi-donor capacity building programme for financial sectors in developing countries – we believe that resources must be both forthcoming and targeted appropriately.