samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Until now, we have mainly been concerned with “quantities", and I would just like to say a word in this respect on the Stability and Growth Pact: in my mind, it would be both dangerous and illusory to want to change the rules – rather, let’s respect them. But at the same time, we should consider the quality of public spending: in order to boost potential growth, in the long term, expenditure on investment and on our future are vital, including on education and training and, of course, new technologies. This is true of national budgets, but we could amplify the effect through a euro area investment budget. This budget could be used to finance, for the benefit of all countries, certain “common goods” such as digital technology, energy transition, security, and external border protection. Finally, my third idea begins with a question: how to deal with stabilisation? In other words, how to deal with the shocks that can have a brutal effect on certain national economies? Private risk 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  sharing through the Capital Markets Union and the Financing Union that I mentioned earlier, is part of the answer. In the United States for example, the stock market is capable of absorbing around 40% of a State-specific shock. But that is not enough and it is absolutely vital that we go further still.

To a significant degree, the crisis was about regulatory gaps – be it gaps in terms of loosely regulated mortgage underwriting practices in the United States, the activities of bank-sponsored structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and conduits, the providers of insurance guarantees against structured finance products such as AIG Financial Products Group, or the structured  1  In this regard, I am considerably more worried about countries that implement standards that are more lax than the norm, rather than more tough than the norm. However, if many countries individually were to opt for tougher standards, this could raise questions about whether the international norm is too lax. 2  Work underway by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and others all are designed to make the traditional banking sector more robust. This includes requiring more and higher quality capital, better capturing of risk in the application of capital standards, imposing a capital leverage limit on banks, raising liquidity buffer requirements, and requiring compensation regimes to be consistent with financial stability. 2  BIS Review 28/2010  finance models of the rating agencies and others that turned out to be defective. Thus, the experience of the recent crisis strongly suggests that confining regulatory reform to strengthening the banking sector would be insufficient to make the financial system as a whole resilient and robust. A crucial case in point is the too-big-to-fail problem. Having some firms that are too big to fail creates moral hazard, which distorts incentives.
Øystein Børsum: Ownership and climate risk in the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) – on the tools for addressing climate risk in the fund Speech by Mr Øystein Børsum, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), Oslo, 21 December 2021. * * * Accompanying presentation:www.bis.org/review/r212312d_presentation.pdf Actual presentation may depart from the published text  Introduction Climate change is an issue that matters. Chart: Emissions must come down The global economy as it stands today is not sustainable. But it needs to be, and so emissions must come down. This is an issue for everyone – and not least the fund. With our broadly diversified, global portfolio and long-term horizon, in many ways we stand or fall with the global economy. Norges Bank is a financial investor. Our mission as the manager of the fund is to build and safeguard financial wealth for future generations. But the way we manage the fund can also have an impact beyond the purely financial, such as on the transition to a low-carbon economy. What our role should be – and what our work should involve – is what I will be discussing today. Back in the summer, an expert group delivered its report to the Ministry of Finance with recommendations for how climate risk should be addressed at the fund. Norges Bank has spent the autumn assessing these recommendations and how they might be implemented. This week, the Executive Board submitted its response to the Ministry.

The global financial crisis significantly undermined confidence in the financial system, and the discovery of ethical lapses that continue to be reported today has further eroded public trust in financial institutions. There is an urgent need to restore faith in the utility of financial services, firstly through the demonstration of fair and responsible practices and reinforced with the provision of valueadding products and services that are meeting the real needs of consumers and businesses. Financial institutions with their extensive reach and customer relationships are in a unique position to have a more significant role in advancing the financial education agenda. In Malaysia, this has included providing technical support and materials for teachers to improve their knowledge and increase confidence in teaching financial matters in schools. Financial institutions have also adopted more than 10,000 schools across the country under the School Adoption Programme with wide ranging activities in money management for the children. The financial institutions also work closely with the Credit and Debt Management Agency in the implementation of financial education programmes for adults. Today, the focus on financial capability has become a global agenda. This has provided opportunities for policymakers to learn from their peers across countries and leverage on the international network of expertise in addressing common issues and challenges. This Symposium is a great example of realising such opportunities. The possibilities for meaningful cooperation at the regional and global levels are tremendous. This has already included research, technical assistance and guidance for policymakers.
It ranges on a continuum from pure factual statements, to calculated parameters, to outright buy/sell/hold recommendations. While investors often use factual information concerning securities to guide their decisions, MAS takes the view that factual information itself is not investment advice. Data based on historical time series are facts, whereas forecasts would be considered subjective. Further, filtering data through the choice of parameters, for example, to display only shares with favourable financial ratios, would be considered selective, and would require licensing. The “fact versus opinion” principle sets out quite clearly what would require licensing as investment advice. Nonetheless, in this information continuum, there remain some grey areas involving implicit advice. For instance, where the interpretation and presentation of facts leads to a specific conclusion, MAS would need to review the context and circumstances, such as other information on the website, to decide whether licensing is required. Analytical tools: a common device which challenges our interpretation of “advice” is an analytic tool, for instance, computer software aimed at facilitating investment decisions. Such a tool may require licensing. In making this judgment, we would consider the output of this tool, subjecting it to the “fact versus opinion” test. If the output goes beyond factual information, and includes subjective or interpretative content, this tool would require licensing.9 Other securities regulators have adopted the same stance in regard to the provision of implicit investment advice.

Economic activity  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  According to Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate, the euro area economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022. While above the December Eurosystem staff projections, this outcome means that economic activity has slowed markedly since mid2022 and we expect it to stay weak in the near term. Subdued global activity and high geopolitical uncertainty, especially owing to Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine and its people, continue to act as headwinds to euro area growth. Together with high inflation and tighter financing conditions, these headwinds dampen spending and production, especially in the manufacturing sector. However, supply bottlenecks are gradually easing, the supply of gas has become more secure, firms are still working off large order backlogs and confidence is improving. Moreover, output in the services sector has been holding up, supported by continuing reopening effects and stronger demand for leisure activities. Rising wages and the recent decline in energy price inflation are also set to ease the loss of purchasing power that many people have experienced owing to high inflation. This, in turn, will support consumption. Overall, the economy has proved more resilient than expected and should recover over the coming quarters. The unemployment rate remained at its historical low of 6.6 per cent in December 2022. However, the rate at which jobs are being created may slow and unemployment could rise over the coming quarters.
The key policy instrument used in this endeavour is the establishment of policy interest rates for borrowing (Repurchase Rate) and for lending (Reverse Repurchase Rate) that operates through the Bank’s Open Market Operations. The Central Bank conducts Open Market Operations to keep the level of Reserve money in the system at an appropriate level, while it uses the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) on commercial bank deposit liabilities to further support the monetary policy. Financial System Stability, the other core objective of the Central Bank, is achieved through the regulation and supervision of financial institutions, the overseeing of the financial infrastructure which includes critical payment and settlement systems, as well as keeping a close watch on the financial markets as a whole. To achieve this objective, the Central Bank employs a series of prudential and regulatory measures. In addition to the core objectives, the Central Bank provides policy advice to the Government and vital state sector enterprises to strengthen macroeconomic stability and to enhance growth prospects. The Bank also undertakes several agency and ancillary functions, which include managing the Foreign Reserves of the country, Public Debt and Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF). Further, the Central Bank plays a key role in broadening the financial infrastructure and strengthening the small, medium and microfinance sectors in the country. 2. Outline of today's statement  The policy statement presented today for the year 2007 and beyond focuses on several areas.

But there is no doubt that the unique, intra-European exchange rate certainty that would be provided by a single currency could nevertheless -- through increased competition as a result of greater price transparency and lower transaction costs, and through the associated improvement in resource allocation -- greatly increase the benefits that are to be derived from the single market. So, on the positive side there is no doubt that it would -- other things equal -- be a very desirable complement to the single market. The problem is that other things may not necessarily prove to be equal. Essentially, the downside is that there is a risk that the single monetary policy -- the single short-term interest rate -- throughout the euro-area, which is a necessary corollary of the single currency, may not, in the event, prove to be appropriate to the domestic needs of each of the participating countries. That risk was quite clearly recognised by the drafters of the Maastricht Treaty. They quite deliberately included in the Treaty the famous convergence criteria in order to ensure that countries wanting to participate in the euro-area should have to demonstrate, before they were allowed to join, at least a minimum degree of sustainable economic convergence precisely in order to reduce the risk of divergent national monetary policy needs once the single currency is introduced. Without that, the potential problems could be serious.
A key part of this is to make certain that banks and financial markets perform their functions efficiently, and that their business poses no systemic threat to the financial sector and the economy. Hence, for a long time now, the main focus of bank regulation and supervision have been to ensure that banks manage their exposure to risk effectively. These include exposure to credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk. Much progress has been made in honing the approach for a more accurate assessment and a more effective management of risk, culminating in the Basle II, which is a global standard for bank’s risk management. BIS Review 18/2008  1  But, in spite of what has been achieved, mishaps can and do happen. From time to time, we still read about banks suffering large losses that originate from the under-management of these risks. More often than not, the losses are linked to a breach of internal controls or systems that have been put in place to rein in excessive risk-taking in the first place. Ladies and gentlemen. On the security risk aspect, the growth of electronic banking and real-time funds transfer have made the challenge of risk management even greater, as the nature of security risk to banks has shifted considerably. Clearly, the main concern now is not so much about ensuring property security or preventing theft of physical assets, but about ensuring information security and preventing identity theft.

The concern is not so much about control over access to restricted areas and cash vault, but about ensuring proper authorized access to the IT systems and the electronic funds transfer network. And the issue is not so much about keeping bank premises open after a major disaster, but about ensuring that all key banking operations and network continue to function uninterrupted under a proper business continuity plan. These are aspects of modern security risks to banks. They are part of the broader operational risks, which have received greater attention as the business of banking moves further and further away from face-to-face transactions. In Thailand, to address this challenge, we as bank supervisors, have over the past years provided best-practice guidance to the local banking industry in a number of important areas, including loss data collection, business continuity management and plan, IT security, outsourcing, and IT disaster recovery. In addition, Basel II will, for the first time, impose an explicit capital charge on banks for operational risks, on top of the traditional credit and market risks. Implementation of Basel II in Thailand will begin at the end of this year, and the preparation for its implementation is progressing on schedule. I am confident that with the implementation of Basel II, the quality of risk management by banks in Thailand, especially with respect to operational risks, will improve further. I have taken a lot of your time in this opening remark. But the topic of today’s seminar is important.
The third area relates to close interactions among industry practitioners and the development of ground knowledge. While there are many opportunities for trade and investment among emerging economies, the business linkages are only beginning to grow. Forums such as the WIBC provide a valuable platform for practitioners to build their knowledge of each region and the business leaders. At the same time, for large-scale and long-term investments such as in infrastructure, effective knowledge of partners and on-theground presence are important ways of mitigating risks. Recent developments in Singapore 15. Let me therefore take this opportunity to say a few words about developments in Singapore. As an international financial centre in Asia, Singapore seeks to develop Islamic finance by leveraging on our existing strengths in banking, insurance, asset management  2  163/2009  and capital markets. Although relatively new, we have seen steady progress. MAS launched its Sukuk early this year. The Islamic Development Bank also issued a $ Singapore dollar-denominated trust certificate. In May, Olam International, a local trading firm tied up with the Islamic Bank of Asia to launch a Commodity Murabaha based on agricultural trade flows. Just last month, Singapore’s Keppel T&T and Saudi Arabia’s Al Rajhi Holding Group announced an agreement to establish a joint venture asset management company to manage the world’s first Shariah-compliant data centre fund. Other Singapore companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are also using Shariah-compliant structures for their financing needs. 16. We were honoured to host the 5th Islamic Financial Services Board Annual Summit in May.

Here indeed we have a backlog, and we need to cross over to this new system in order to reduce costs for the financial sector and ultimately reduce the cost of credit. This will also result in cheaper loans. We will be carrying out tests on the market of new technologies, such as distributed ledger technology based on a blockchain technology, and we have already begun this process in order to implement the regulation of new technologies rationally, protecting the markets from risks. At the beginning of this speech I mentioned the strategic objectives of the Bank of Russia. These are our key priorities. You may have noticed that the tasks we set ourselves four years ago and those for the year 2016, which I have been speaking about today, as well as challenges of the future, are all, of course, related to each other. We consider it to be very important to respect the principles of continuity, consistency and predictability. We will no doubt be responding with flexibility to any given situation. The situation is volatile, there is a lot of uncertainty in the world. We will have to react in accordance with the challenges presented to us. But the consistency of our policy, I think, is very important. The preservation of trust is vital to development, as well as to financial markets. This is a key category – trust in the financial market and trust in monetary policy have been the most influential factors in terms of economic growth.
Charles L Evans: The Fed’s dual mandate responsibilities – maintaining credibility during a time of immense economic challenges Speech by Charles L Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, at the Michigan Council on Economic Education, Michigan Economic Dinner, Detroit, Michigan, 17 October 2011. *  *  *  The enormity of the problem In the summer of 2009, the U.S. economy began to emerge from its deepest recession since the 1930s. But today, more than two years later, conditions still aren’t much different from an economy actually in recession. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was barely positive in the first half of 2011. The unemployment rate is 9.1 percent, much higher than anything we had experienced for decades before the recession. And job gains over the past several months have been barely enough to keep pace with the natural growth in the labor force, so we’ve made virtually no progress in closing the “jobs gap”. With unemployment having lingered for so long at rates around 9 percent, it is perhaps natural that some would begin to think that nothing more can be done to improve upon this situation. However, I don’t agree. Before seriously contemplating doing nothing, it is important to realize just how enormous this economic problem really is. To put this in perspective, consider that prior to the recession, most analysts thought the long-run trend growth rate of GDP was about 2-1/2 percent per year.

Christian Noyer: A review of the financial crisis Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Hearing before the Finance Commission of the Assemblée nationale, Paris, 7 October 2008 (updated 15 October 2008). * 1. *  *  A number of comments on the developments of the past month  The bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008 marked a crucial turning point in the crisis. The direct consequences of this failure, involving over USD 600 billion in assets, appear to have been correctly contained and managed up to now. Nevertheless, it exacerbated the crisis of confidence, with the following major repercussions: •  first, interbank markets increasingly seized up, because banks perceived there to be a rise in counterparty risk. Overnight dollar interbank rates rose to particularly high levels of close to 7%;  •  second, significant pressure on other money market segments, in particular the US commercial paper market, where yields on 30-day paper have been climbing since mid-September to reach levels close to those observed at the end of last year;  •  lastly, the deterioration in the financial position of AIG, the largest US insurer, followed by its exceptional bailout. A two-pronged rescue plan was implemented: on the one hand, the Fed made an USD 85 billion loan at a penalty rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points and, on the other, the US government took a 79.9% stake in the company.
In terms of downside risks, these include the risk that growth abroad disappoints and the risk of further disruptions to the supply of oil and higher oil prices. On the inflation front, the overall rate of increase of consumer prices, as measured by the 12-month change of the price index for personal consumption expenditures, slowed to 2.3 percent in February from a recent peak of 2.9 percent last September. Even though the recent rise of gasoline prices mentioned above could interrupt this pattern, we expect this moderation of overall inflation to resume later this year. While the underlying core inflation rate, that strips out volatile food and energy prices, has been somewhat higher than expected a few months back, it appears that the annual rate of core inflation1 has peaked and we expect it to begin to decline later this year.2 Finally, inflation expectations, which play an important role in the inflation process, remain well anchored. By this I mean that people expect that the rate of inflation will continue to be relatively low for some time to come. Regional Economic Conditions So how is the recovery proceeding in the state and the region? As I mentioned, the New York Fed produces indexes that help us track economic activity in the region. Based on these measures, the economic recovery that began in New York State in late 2009 has continued through early 2012, and even gained some momentum.

If you, as a representative of a small business, would like to participate in our current poll, please pass your card to my colleagues, who are in the audience, or see me after the speech and we will be glad to add you as a respondent. Results from prior polls stressed the problem of access to capital. In response we held two workshops at the Bank last December. In the first workshop, senior officers from the Export-Import Bank, the Small Business Administration and the Department of Commerce described the various loan programs available to small businesses from their agencies, as well as programs to help identify markets. The second workshop reviewed the business plans of 40 small businesses and then matched them with potential lenders. We plan to hold a similar workshop in Upstate New York this year. As you know, even states that are wealthier, such as New York, have large pockets of poverty. So, we target some of our work specifically to low- and moderate-income groups. We have worked hard to help neighborhoods that face high foreclosure rates, although much remains to be done. We have provided housing advocates with the latest information on mortgage conditions, via mortgage briefs, roundtables, presentations and newsletters. We have now developed an interactive online tool that shows monthly delinquency and foreclosure conditions, which we believe will aid the work of housing counselors and other parties seeking to help these communities.