samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone in our banking community for maintaining services to your customers during these extraordinary times. The speed and agility you have demonstrated in delivering the relief measures has been particularly impressive. The resilience and resourcefulness of our banking sector put us in a strong position to handle the challenges that lie ahead. 5. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, I have no doubt that Hong Kong will continue to perform its special role as an international financial centre. China remains the engine of global economic growth and the biggest provider of savings. The Mainland’s opening of its financial sector continues to offer new opportunities for the rest of the world, and Hong Kong is at the nexus of it all. While our banks must continue to stay resilient against the many challenges of our times, they also need to prepare themselves for new opportunities emerging from the transformations now unfolding in our region. 6. In today’s conference we are invited to look beyond our present difficulties, to envision a ‘Brave New World of Banking’ in an age of ‘Innovation and Transformation’. I congratulate HKIB on choosing such a forward-looking topic – one to which I have also been giving a great deal of thought. Taking up this theme, I will discuss three big transformations that are already happening, and talk about how the industry and how we at the HKMA are responding to them.

For legitimacy and effectiveness of measures and also for better global governance, emerging economies should involve in decision-making process and be part of the solution. However, emerging countries should also be aware of the fact that more power in decisionmaking process comes with more responsibilities. Both developed countries and emerging market countries share the blame in global economic imbalances that worsened the magnitude of current crisis. In theory, the adjustment of imbalances should have taken place through either exchange rates or interest rates or both. Mainly developed countries prevented that adjustment on the interest rates, whereas emerging market countries joined their counterparts by preventing adjustment on the exchange rates. Today, many people debate the need for a new global reserve currency, creation of an international clearing system, enhancing the role of central banks, and establishment of a supranational body to safeguard global economic and financial system. These discussions are necessary and maybe overdue. A global reserve currency might be needed to alleviate the tension between appropriate monetary policy of the reserve currency country and that of the global economy. Creating an international clearing agency between trade partner countries may be useful to reduce the need for accumulating foreign exchange reserves. A supra-national body may be the only solution for the externality problem in the Bretton Woods system and its successor, so called, the Bretton Woods II. Main responsibilities of central banks may be enhanced to the stability of asset prices as well as prices of goods and services.
Given the risks we saw before us - primarily a slightly stronger economic upturn - inflation was expected to be in line with the Riksbank's inflation target a couple of years ahead. This was why the repo rate was left unchanged. The outlook from May had not changed significantly at the meetings in June and August. However, we observed in August that economic growth appeared slightly stronger both in Sweden and abroad. This meant there was also reason to expect slightly higher resource utilisation. Moreover, the economic upturn had continued for a further couple of months. What is the present outlook for inflation over the coming years? My own assessment is that the conclusions drawn by the Riksbank at the previous meeting in August remain valid on the whole. It is likely, however, that some upward revision of the inflation forecast may be warranted compared with  BIS Review 51/2004  5  the May assessment, and perhaps even compared with the August forecast. In the short term the high oil price points to such a scenario. It also appears reasonable to expect somewhat higher resource utilisation over the coming years compared with in May and August. Factors that support this are the strong data releases during the summer and the more expansionary fiscal policy that now appears likely. Another factor is international developments, which appear to be strong. Slightly higher resource utilisation should lead to a slight increase in inflationary pressures over the coming years, compared with previous assessments. There are, of course, uncertainty factors.

Taken together it is possible that there now, as at the time of the monetary policy meeting in August, is reason to be somewhat more optimistic about economic growth abroad this year compared with the  BIS Review 51/2004  1  Riksbank’s assessment in May. The high oil price could indeed dampen the upswing somewhat and there have been some less positive signals over the summer from the United States, among other countries. But it appears that this will be countered by growth in other parts of the world, which seemingly will be more robust than forecast in May. In this context it may be worth noting that Sweden’s trade with countries such as China and India is still relatively small, but that the countries outside the OECD area (OECD-19) together account for about 20 per cent of Swedish export markets. This can be compared, for example, with the United States, whose share of Swedish exports is just over 10 per cent. If the performance of these countries is strong, it is of course of great significance for Sweden. Financial market developments during the summer have not entirely been in line with expectations. Equity price developments have been relatively weak. Both short-term and long-term interest rates have accordingly been weaker than we anticipated. The cause of this weaker development in interest rates has been uncertainty, primarily about the strength of the US economic upswing and the effect of the high oil price on global growth.
•  We continue to require that examiners rotate to another institution after three to five years. This tenure allows enough time to gain an understanding of a firm without sacrificing examiner independence. •  We have taken concrete steps to encourage examiners to speak up, which we view as a core competency. For example, we evaluate examiners on their level of engagement with colleagues and their willingness to share insights. •  We created programs to encourage peer recognition of good ideas, including funding for new supervision ideas proposed and voted on by supervisory staff. •  We increased the opportunities for feedback to senior managers, including the head of supervision, in addition to other channels already provided by the New York Fed. Among other improvements, we conduct regular town halls and provide a standing, on-line forum as a device to funnel questions to group leaders. In both settings, questions and answers are offered in an open, transparent manner. •  And we require examination teams to spend more time at New York Fed headquarters and less time “in the field.” Additional time at headquarters promotes cross-firm discussion and direct communication between senior managers and examiners. For example, we offer a seminar series at which group leaders discuss key issues in supervision with our supervision staff. Each and together, these improvements to the substance and process of supervision contribute to financial stability by providing greater insight into bank resiliency and risk. But these enhancements are not self-executing.

But we are also concerned with illiquidity in particular markets when it threatens the stability of the system as a whole. It is this concern that motivates the choice of assets we lend against in both normal and stressed conditions. A loss of liquidity in markets on which the banking system as a whole relies can magnify the mismatch between the maturity of assets and liabilities on banks’ balance sheets. A banking system in which large volumes of funding need to be renewed very frequently is a fragile one, vulnerable each day to a shock stemming from rumours and loss of confidence. And it is in those circumstances that a backstop is needed. The reason for it is not to support individual institutions. It is to avoid an unnecessary loss of confidence in the system as a whole. That backstop is central bank funding when private markets important to the stability of the system have temporarily closed. But central banks are not there to support liquidity in all markets at all times. They are not there to create a liquid market in all financial instruments that traders or some rocket scientist have dreamt up. Nor are they there to maintain indefinitely a market when changes in information or risk appetites make it more difficult to sustain a private market, as in some asset-backed security markets recently.
His screening and evaluation of the operations of an organization makes the work of the external auditor easier. It cuts the cost of the external audit which otherwise has to conduct all audit examinations and tests on his own in order to arrive at his audit conclusions. By relying on the audit trails continuously conducted by the internal auditor, the external auditor could complete his audit examinations on time by conducting only the relevant sample tests. In this sense too, an internal auditor is a necessary element in modern organizations. BIS Review 143/2007  1  Internal auditor or management auditor? Over the years, the scope of the internal audit has expanded to cover new areas which have become important to an organization from the point of view of efficiency and productivity. Modern business is fiercely competitive and, unless an organization acquires a competitive edge over its rivals, it would not be able to continue in business. This is specifically relevant to banking institutions. Hence, in addition to the normal routine surveillance over financial matters, internal auditor was required to comment on the efficiency of operations as well. This involved his examination of processes, systems and methods to gauge whether the money spent by a business really makes a contribution to the business in return. The new work-load changed the title of the internal auditor to management auditor. He was, therefore, required to function as an in-house management consultant and advisor to the top management of organizations.

Today, we do not make any distinction between “internal audit” and “management audit”. Whatever the term we use to call him, an internal auditor has to function as a management auditor as well. New challenges for internal auditors The expansion of banking business both horizontally and vertically over the years has posed new challenges to the internal auditor. This expansion has resulted in creating giant banking holding companies encompassing almost all areas of financial services. A bank which was confined only to borrowing and lending some six to seven decades ago is now a universal bank that provides all types of financial services to its customers. They may do it through different units or departments set up under one umbrella or through the establishment of a host of associate and subsidiary companies under one holding company. An internal auditor in a bank, therefore, cannot simply confine his work only to the main business of banking. Since there are cross-border risks involving different segments of a banking holding company, he now has to expand his area of operation to cover the entire business as a single entity. This adds not only a new work-load, but also a new challenge to an internal auditor. It behooves on the auditor to acquire new knowledge and skills to handle the job effectively. Hence, an internal auditor today has to be an all-rounder in banking and associated financial business, if he is to do his job effectively.
For these situations, the members of the Committee have long expressed their views that those banks and supervisors should concentrate on the fundamentals first. Banks in those countries should work toward developing an adequate understanding of the risks they face and a sense of the best practices in use worldwide. For example, banks should develop their understanding of the credit underwriting cycle, skill at credit analysis, and insight into the dangers posed by operational risks. They should nurture a healthy environment for corporate governance, such as by strengthening their systems of internal controls, by promoting robust internal and external audit processes, and by adopting sound standards for accounting, loan analysis and classification, provisioning and reporting. In turn, supervisors who are still fortifying the foundation of their banking systems may consider a variety of approaches to capital regulation. For some countries, the application of the simplest approaches from the New Accord may be appropriate. But others may feel that their banks are not yet ready and may decide, after careful review, that it would continue to apply the 1988 Basel Accord for several more years as banks continue to strengthen their risk management capabilities. I want to emphasise that the Basel Committee supports the decisions of those supervisors who believe that their markets may not yet be ready. We would encourage those countries that choose to remain on the 1988 Accord to look to the principles of the New Accord, and especially to strengthen the second and third pillars.

This leads to the final topic I’d like to discuss, namely the issues related with the transition to the New Accord across the world. Broad application of the New Accord around the world, transition to Basel II In drafting a replacement for the 1988 Accord, the members of the Committee sought to ensure that the capital guidelines could be applied around the world to many kinds of banks. This means that our rules must build on the best practices, yet remain relevant to conventional banks in more traditional markets. The New Accord provides a “menu” of options for measuring risk, thereby offering the degree of flexibility necessary for banks of various sizes and strategic orientiations to adopt the new framework. Now that the New Basel Accord is moving away from a “one-size-fits-all” approach to capital, supervisors in every jurisdictions have the opportunity to evaluate what would be most appropriate for banks that are not large, complex, or internationally active. At the same time, we could say that Basel has moved away from a “one-schedule-fits-all” approach to implementing the new rules worldwide. Or, if you prefer, the Committee is saying to each country, “pick flowers when flowers bloom”. This suggestion is particularly crucial for supervisors who have adopted the 1988 Accord only recently. Some supervisors believe that their banks may still be strengthening their credit risk management functions and consequently would not benefit substantially from the New Accord at the moment.
0.5% of annual GDP, to achieve a structural public balance in equilibrium. 9  In this regard, if the ratio between the total tax take and GDP is taken as reference, it stood at approximately 35% last year, around 6 pp lower than that recorded in the euro area as a whole (decreasing to around 3 pp when the arithmetic mean of the various countries is considered). Spain is particularly notable for its low level of consumption taxation, in international comparisons, and for a low revenueraising capacity in respect of environmental taxes. 10  Specifically, the simulation presented on the slide assumes that potential economic growth will stand at slightly above 1%, the GDP deflator will converge towards 2% from the mid-2020s, and average interest rates on debt will rise only moderately from their present levels. 36  Moreover, it should be emphasised that debt reductions would be greater under alternative scenarios in which the potential economic growth rate rises, highlighting the importance of pursuing policies in this respect, which I will now go on to discuss.11 (ii) Policies to foster long-term growth In the strategies to reduce public debt in the medium and long term, the role played by policies to promote sustained growth in activity and employment must be at least as important as that of the multi-year budget plans.

However, there is a risk that the complexity of these instruments will increase the difficulty of seeing to which credit risks companies and banks are actually exposed. 2  BIS Review 18/2002  The complexity of the financial instruments and the fact that they are often found, in various forms, on both the asset side and the liability side of companies' balance sheets as well as "off balance sheet", makes it difficult to detect the financial risks within banks and companies. This is particularly serious as an increasing number of households have their savings in these companies' shares, but nor is it easy for professional analysts and portfolio managers to see. The collapse of the American company Enron can serve as an example of the problems connected with the development of complicated financial instruments. A lack of understanding of the instruments used and a lack of transparency in the company's accounting meant that directly after the collapse there was considerable concern over possible contagion effects. Here I do not mean the evident breach of the regulations in force, where auditors burn documents and senior managers sell shares in the company prior to publishing negative information. Enron raises a number of other, in the long term more fundamental, issues. Today, I shall limit myself to discussing three of these. Firstly, Enron was basically an energy company, which in time came to pursue financial operations on a large scale, but without coming under the supervision to which financial companies are normally subjected.
However, we expect modest growth for the remainder of the year. Subdued demand from abroad, the loss of purchasing power due to inflation, and more restrictive financial conditions are having a dampening effect. Overall, GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year. In this environment, unemployment will probably rise slightly, and the utilisation of production capacity is likely to decline somewhat. The forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to high uncertainty. The main risk is a more pronounced economic slowdown abroad. Monetary policy outlook  Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy. The marked decline in inflation in recent months is very welcome. This is also the result of our monetary policy, which is now significantly more restrictive than one year ago. The SNB policy rate is 2.5 percentage points higher than before the monetary policy assessment in June 2022, and we have also sold foreign currency in recent quarters. Our monetary policy tightening has strengthened the Swiss franc and thus dampened imported inflation. In addition, our monetary policy is also directly countering domestic inflation. Nevertheless, the underlying inflationary pressure has risen further. In the current environment, increased costs can still be easily passed through to prices. We are therefore observing persisting second-round effects in many domestic goods and services. A rise in rents will also contribute to higher domestic inflation. There is thus still the danger of inflation becoming entrenched above 2%, i.e. above the range that we equate with price stability.

Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate of 1.75% up to a certain threshold. Sight deposits above this threshold will be remunerated at an interest rate of 1.25%, and thus still at a discount of 0.5 percentage points relative to the SNB policy rate. Inflation forecast  I would like to address the development of inflation. Inflation has declined significantly in recent months, and stood at 2.2% in May. This decrease was above all attributable to lower inflation on imported goods, in particular lower prices for oil products and natural gas. Our new conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.75% over the entire forecast horizon (cf. chart 1). Through to the end of 2023, the new forecast is below that of March. The lower oil and gas prices and the stronger Swiss franc are having a dampening effect over the short term. From 2024 onwards, the new forecast is higher than in March, despite today’s increase in the SNB policy rate. The reasons for this are ongoing second-round effects, higher electricity prices and rents, and more persistent inflationary pressure from abroad. The new forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.2% for 2023 and 2024, and 2.1% for 2025 (cf. table). In the forecast period, inflation is likely to be increasingly driven by higher prices of domestic goods and services. Without today’s policy rate increase, the inflation forecast would be even higher over the medium term.
New Year wishes to the Paris financial centre – Paris, 19 January 2021  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, Chairman of the ACPR  Press contact: Mark Deen (mark.deen@banque-france.fr) and Deborah Guedj (deborah.guedj@banque-france.fr)  Page 1 of 4  This video is a first. Our New Year’s wishes this year come in a “Covid-friendly” format: virtual but very warm. I am extending them on behalf of all the women and men of the Banque de France and the ACPR. I hope that 2021 proves to be a better year for our beloved country, with the vaccines that should halt the epidemic by the second half. A better year also for you and your loved ones, with a special thought for those of our fellow citizens who have unfortunately lost someone close to them during this epidemic. 2020 was an extremely trying year in many respects, but also a year of exceptional collective mobilisation (I). We need to capitalise on that resilience to meet the numerous challenges of 2021 (II). I. The fruits of 2020: Financing of the economy and resilience of the financial system In response to the Covid crisis, public authorities – the government and central banks – rapidly deployed a “financing bridge” to help businesses, especially VSMEs, withstand the shock and protect their employees.

Financial institutions, together with their staff, were at the frontline of this mobilisation: banks by distributing EUR 130 billion of state-guaranteed loans – a record in Europe, and keep up the commitment – but also insurers – and this has been less frequently mentioned – with numerous payouts on claims not covered in policies. Your teams have demonstrated remarkable operational agility. This resilience also stems from the efforts of banks and insurers who went into the crisis on a firm financial footing, with large French banking groups having almost doubled their own funds since 2008 to 15%, and insurers’ capital requirement coverage averaging 239% at end-September 2020. But although we don’t currently need to worry about their financial soundness, we still need to remain vigilant: there is still a high degree of uncertainty, which calls for the maintenance of our fiscal support measures and an accommodative monetary policy. I won’t talk about the latter today as we are in the “quiet period” before the meeting of the Governing Council on 20 and 21 January. Page 2 of 4  II. The challenges for 2021 After a few more difficult months at the start of the year, 2021 should see the end of the pandemic and the beginning of the reconstruction. And in the financial industry itself, we will need to capitalise on 2020’s resilience to meet four challenges that I shall sum up using the four cardinal points of the compass. 1/ The first, of course, is Brexit, so in the North.