samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Overall there has been some easing in the money markets and some repair in confidence. The complete seizure that was looming has been averted. BIS Review 145/2008  3  However, we are clearly not out of the woods yet. Financial markets across the world are still badly impaired; spreads have not yet returned to their summer levels; and, while banks look more secure, many hedge funds for example are under increased pressure. In the wider economy, we are only in the early stages of a recession in the advanced economies and of the slowdown in emerging markets. So we must be ready to take further action if required whether monetary, fiscal, or directly in the financial sector. Lessons for the medium-term That is the immediate prospect. I want to finish by drawing out some lessons for the medium term. 1. Closer international co-ordination of macroeconomic policy  The first lesson is the vital importance of international cooperation in a global economy. For several years we worried about the growing imbalances between the US in particular and emerging Asia. We can now see how painful the rebalancing is proving. No doubt we could do better in national policy making but we also need to recognise that the sum of policies which make sense at the national level may well not be optimal at the global level. To give one example, for most economies individually a change in the oil price is an external event – something beyond the reach of policy.

In short, the balance of risks between inflation being above or below target in the medium term shifted decisively to the downside. That was the background to the internationally coordinated reductions in interest rates in early October and the aggressive cut of 150 basis points in Bank Rate in November, the largest reduction in official interest rates since 1992 (indeed I believe it was only the third time Bank rate had been cut by 150bp since the Bank was founded over 300 years ago). Even so, our latest medium term projections for inflation show inflation remaining below target in the medium term and suggest further reductions may be necessary (Chart 7). Of course, there are large uncertainties around that projection; more so than usual. In particular, they take no account of any fiscal measures that the Government may announce next week. Just as we had to change gears on monetary policy, so we needed to change our approach to the banking sector. The tripartite authorities – the Bank, FSA and Treasury – were criticised for the handling of Northern Rock and for being slow off the mark when the crisis started in 2007. But we learned from that experience. We have established new ways of providing the market with the liquidity that it needs. And, as the crisis has widened, we have dealt with vulnerable and failing banks, such as Bradford and Bingley, more speedily and cleanly.
Let’s get ready for the next stage of the race. Intro Ladies and gentlemen, Let me first of all thank The Economist for inviting me to this distinguished panel. Almost exactly ten years ago, the Olympic triathlon took place here in Vouliagmeni. On race day, the weather was as hot and as dry as it is today. The athletes needed to have two important attributes in order to be able to compete in a triathlon in these conditions: resilience to withstand the heat and commitment to endure all three disciplines with equal passion. Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is a political triathlon. It requires resilience when the heat is on and it requires commitment and resolve for participants to perform well at all times in the three policy disciplines that mark a currency union: fiscal policy, economic policy and financial policy. But there is one important difference with a triathlon: EMU is a team effort. Only if every participant performs well can the euro area team be strong. This is the most important lesson from the crisis. Today, I want to discuss what this means in terms of the policy efforts that could be part of – as the panel title calls it – “the big rethink for a stronger Europe”. I will start with an analysis of the outstanding challenges – or the heat – that the euro area still faces. I will then outline what has already been achieved to bring stability and confidence back to the euro area.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Reflection on professionalism, Hippocratic oath and the banking industry Remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 20th AICB Chartered Banker's Graduation and Awards Ceremony, Kuala Lumpur, 13 May 2017. * * * Thank you for the opportunity to speak at the 20th AICB Chartered Banker’s Graduation and Awards Ceremony. My congratulations to the 1,062 graduates who have been certified across 15 qualifications. Today, you join the ranks of the over 18,600 banking professionals in the nation. Your graduation is not only an important step in your own careers, but also contributes to our shared aspirations of elevating the banking profession towards greater heights. When we reflect about professionalism, the medical profession often comes to mind for its dedication, devotion, care and interest for society. Over 2,000 years ago, the Hippocratic Oath was first introduced to the world. Today, most medical school students profess some form of the oath upon graduation. While written in antiquity, its principles are held sacred by doctors to this day. Its words have evolved with history. But its message remains the same: treat the sick to the best of one’s ability, preserve patient privacy, teach the secrets of medicine to the next generation, and much more. What is interesting is not the oath itself, but the principles it expounds and the deep philosophical values that have firmly grounded the medical profession over the years.
This body of information leads us to establish that our baseline scenario remains in full force. But still in this conjuncture, which looks fairly favorable for the Chilean economy and the Chileans’ financial situation, it is necessary to warn about the high risks that persist and that is why the CBC keeps risks for growth biased towards more negative scenarios. In particular, among these risks there is the possibility of new episodes of international financial volatility ultimately affecting the agents’ expectations, global demand and international credit. The possibility is still there of a deeper than forecast recession in the Eurozone, as well as of a disorderly evolution of the continent’s problems or even of a fragmentation. And one must also consider the possibility of a sharper adjustment of growth in China. Neither should geopolitical tensions in the Middle East be overlooked, with its potential implications on the oil price. All these external contingencies are part of the preoccupations we monitor closely at the CBC in cooperation with the Finance Ministry and superintendences of the financial sector, within the framework of our coordination meetings and those of the Financial Stability Committee. The preoccupation motivating this session is which measures we could take to confront a further worsening of the global situation that could wash over our domestic economy. The Central Bank of Chile has the necessary tools and policy space to act to mitigate the effects of adverse external scenarios over the Chilean economy.

This balance is critical to deliver the welfare benefits of financial innovation and avoid stalling the development of digital finance with the risk of leaving someone behind. I look forward to the presentations and discussions by the participants at the conference that I am sure will provide interesting reflections on the abovementioned challenges casting light on the fast changing financial innovation landscape, especially in the payments area. I wish all of you an enjoyable and rewarding conference in Ohrid, our charming city, protected by UNESCO for its natural and cultural heritage. Thank you! 1 The Pulse of Fintech 2018: Biannual global analysis of investment in fintech, 2019,  KPMG,  assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2019/02/the-pulse-of-fintech-2018.pdf 2 The future of banking is open: How to seize the Open Banking opportunity, 2018, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,  retailbankinginnovation.fintecnet.com/uploads/2/4/3/8/24384857/the_future_of_banking_is_open.pdf  4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
This, together with the difficulties of the latest round of budget and debt‐limit negotiations, shifted the consensus to postpone the expected date of the beginning of tapering. Recent figures indicating a recovery of employment in October stronger than expected have led some to bring forward again their forecasted date of tapering. Developments in coming weeks will be crucial to assess whether recent data mark a change in tendency or a temporary phenomenon. The question of how the reversal will occur is the hardest to answer. If everything goes as planned, the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus would be gradual and related to improved economic conditions in the US. But, the significant reaction of markets to the announcement  4  A few papers trying to quantify the impact of various macroprudential policies include Lim et al. (2011) and Tovar et al. (2012). 5  See for instance the article by Rey (2013) and the presentation by Smets (2013) at Jackson Hole. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  of the possibility of reducing the speed of purchases, gives us some reason to worry about the ability of authorities to guarantee a smooth transition to a scenario of normal monetary conditions. Financial markets are large, and even the Federal Reserve may have some transitory trouble taming them.

In Switzerland, this means that as long as the economic recovery remains on track, we should not postpone for too long the process of normalising monetary conditions. Otherwise, we would put medium term price stability at risk. 1/1
Economic activity improving When it comes to the prospects for higher demand from the euro countries following the debt crisis and all the structural problems, I have become gradually less pessimistic over the last 12 months. This is for example because several highly-indebted countries have made progress in reducing their budget deficits. The Swedish crisis of the 1990s made a great impression on me as an economist and my experience from that period tells me that when households and companies see that the worst problems are over and that the situation is being managed then there is potential for increased confidence about the future, which we have also seen in recent months. This is despite the fact that unemployment is still high and that the recovery of economic activity in these countries is starting from a low level. Of course a lot remains to be done and here the responsibility primarily lies with the politicians in the respective countries. The euro area’s common monetary policy is an important tool for easing the readjustment, but it cannot correct all the causes of the crisis. This requires decisions at the national level in order to come to terms with weak public finances and to change economic and political structures so that competitiveness is improved. It has long been the Riksbank’s assessment that the crisis can be resolved in an orderly way and that economic growth will gradually improve.

Figure 3 Weak developments abroad have affected the labour market Employment by sector, thousands, seasonally-adjusted data 4900  2400 Government sector (left scale)  2200  4800  Services producers (left scale) Goods producers (left scale)  4700  2000 Total (right scale)  1800  4600  1600  4500  1400  4400  1200  4300  4200  1000 00  02  04  06  08  10  12  Source: Statistics Sweden  1  The Riksbank (2012)  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The relatively low level of economic activity abroad has also affected inflation in Sweden more directly. One reason for the low rate of inflation recently is namely that the prices of goods have increased slowly. The strengthening of the krona in recent years has led to a further reduction in import prices. On the other hand, service prices in Sweden have helped to keep up the rate of inflation. Figure 4 What lies behind the low inflation?
Higher demand leads to higher output and employment. Wage growth may pick up. Higher wage growth combined with higher profit margins will result in higher inflation. Lower interest rates normally lead to a depreciation of the krone. Imported goods then become more expensive and inflation accelerates. Expectations play a key role in price and wage formation, and they are influenced by the interest rate. Expectations concerning inflation and economic stability have considerable impact, not least in the foreign exchange market. Petroleum activity constitutes an important part of the Norwegian economy. Oil gives us an economic base that is not available to many other countries. At the same time, the extent of, and fluctuations in, petroleum activity pose a challenge to economic policy in Norway. In a long-term perspective, Norway’s petroleum wealth is to be distributed across generations. The authorities must therefore exercise fiscal discipline, taking into account long-term considerations. In the short term, the substantial capital revenues from the petroleum sector must be managed in such a way that they do not amplify cyclical fluctuations. The Government Petroleum Fund was established in 1990 with a view to safeguarding long-term considerations in the use of petroleum revenues. The idea behind the Petroleum Fund is that the cash flow from an increase in oil prices should accrue to the Fund and be invested abroad and that the increase in oil prices should not affect the wider budget. As a result, the increase in the cash flow does not affect the domestic economy.

Philipp M Hildebrand: Financial Stability and Hedge Funds: Effective and Ineffective Supervision Speech by Mr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, Diskussionsforum «Nachbarn Deutschland-Schweiz: Impulse für die Zukunft», Berlin, 9 November 2005. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The hedge fund industry has grown rapidly over the past few years and it has become an important segment of global financial markets. The possibility to use leverage and a high degree of flexibility are key elements of a broad range of investment strategies which have made the hedge funds industry very profitable. Hedge funds have been an important source of innovation in the traditional asset management industry and they have rendered financial markets more liquid, more efficient and more flexible. Nonetheless, the rapid growth of the industry and the excessive use of leverage may result in potential systemic risks which are relevant to central banks, unlike prudential matters. Overall, industry leverage is difficult to measure. However, several studies suggest that it is lower than at the time of the near collapse of LTCM in 1998. Even so, temporary excessive levels of leverage with single hedge funds can not be ruled out completely. A crisis in the hedge fund industry might therefore spill over to their primary trading partners, the major investment banks.
During the crisis the Riksbank has acted in its traditional role as lender of last resort. The difference this time, compared with the traditional role, is that it has not merely involved short-term loans in kronor, but also lending at longer maturities and in dollars. Gold and foreign currency reserve The Riksbank has a substantial gold and foreign currency reserve. It consists of gold and assets in different currencies, which can be quickly converted to liquid funds. The main part of the foreign currency reserve consists of securities in foreign currency, with a small percentage of bonds issued by US mortgage institutions and some Australian states. The currency distribution up to the crisis was that half of the currency reserve was listed in euro, 20 per cent in US dollars, 10 per cent each in British pounds and Norwegian kronor and 5 per cent each in Canadian and Australian dollars. During the crisis there has been a greater emphasis on euro and dollars. The gold and foreign currency reserve serves three purposes. Firstly, the Riksbank has traditionally held a gold and foreign currency reserve to be able to support the Swedish krona’s exchange rate. This was a particularly strong reason up to 1991, when Sweden had a fixed exchange rate. But it has no major significance now that we have a floating exchange rate and an inflation target. Secondly, a gold and foreign currency reserve is needed to be able to provide temporary liquidity assistance in foreign currency to banks suffering liquidity problems.

BILD: But it is precisely this policy of cheap money that is not working… Draghi: Wrong – our policy is working, but we must be patient; investor confidence has not yet been fully restored. For two years, the economy in the euro area has been growing month by month, banks are lending and unemployment is steadily falling. Meanwhile, euro area countries are now able to buy more German exports again, which, for German companies, is partly making up for the decline in trade with China. But it is a slow process because the crisis was more severe than anything we’d had since the Second World War. BILD: And when will interest rates rise again? Draghi: It’s quite simple: when the economy is growing more strongly again and inflation rises closer to our objective. Low interest rates today will lead to higher rates tomorrow. BILD: Does the ECB’s policy of cheap money not make it far too easy for euro area countries like Italy and France, for example, to shirk necessary but unpopular reforms? Draghi: No. The majority of governments are acting, albeit too slowly for my personal taste. All of them would be well advised to do more. But that is not primarily dependent on the ECB and its policies. Most countries started to implement reforms when the level of interest rates was already very low. Furthermore, reforms of judicial systems, electoral laws or labour laws, for example, don’t have much to do with interest rates.
John C Williams: Opening remarks – “Racism and the Economy: Focus on Health” Remarks (via prerecorded video) by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at “Racism and the Economy: Focus on Health”,9 September 2021. * * * As prepared for delivery Good afternoon, and welcome everyone. I’m John Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I’m here to kick off what is now the eighth installment of a landmark series on the topic of Racism and the Economy sponsored by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. These events examine structural racism’s toll on the economy and identify potential actions that can improve economic outcomes for all segments of society. There is no facet of our society immune to racism, health included. So, this afternoon, we will be looking at key issues around race and the economy through the lens of health—a focus never more urgent and critical. Before we move on with the program, I’d like to share more broadly why this is so important for the Federal Reserve, what we’re learning, and what we’re doing. And with that, I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System. Having poor health is a challenge on many levels. We’re keenly aware that health can be a huge driver of economic inequality.

For example, a team of New York Fed economists published a series earlier this year aimed at understanding the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and by income.3 And last month, they shared their findings around racial differences in ICU stress during the third wave of COVID-19.4 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  There’s no single or simple solution that can fully address these problems. But, as a nation we can build a stronger foundation so that everyone can fulfill their economic potential, thus better enabling the Federal Reserve to fulfill its mandate. That’s why at the New York Fed—and across the Federal Reserve System—a key area of focus is to better understand economic drivers of health and wellbeing, and to champion promising solutions. We are able to do this in large part through our Community Development efforts to better understand the needs and issues of low- and moderate-income communities throughout our District. Our Community Development team recently adopted a new strategy to concentrate on three key areas: health, household income, and climate.5 Our aim is to connect people, programs, and proposals—especially those focused on fostering racial equity—with the funding needed to promote equitable growth and tackle economic inequality. We are already doing important work in this space and there is so much planned for the future.
The last few months have shown us an important advantage of the euro: in stormy seas it’s better to be on a large ship than in a small boat. In history – also in the economic history – it’s always a speculation to ask “What if…?” I want to do it nevertheless, because there are very well-founded hypotheses. One such hypothesis is: in addition to the financial market turmoil, the banking sector problems and an economic downturn, there would most likely be severe currency upheavals in Europe without the euro. We would likely face strong, erratic fluctuations between Europe’s national currencies. I call to mind in this context the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992 and 1993. It was triggered, among other things, by a difficult European and international environment. We saw sharp tensions between individual national currencies. This led to abrupt shifts in competitiveness between individual countries. The European Union’s internal market and in particular the free movement of capital were subject to tension. Without the euro we would be facing similar difficulties today. The central banks would be in demand as crisis managers on an additional front. The euro does offer protection from distortions in the currency field which would worsen the current situation already marked by the financial markets’ turbulences and the global economic downturn. The commitment to the single currency of its founding fathers was visionary and trailblazing.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro – successes and challenges Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, Osnabrück, 12 February 2009. *  *  *  Introduction Dear President Pöttering, Dear Dr. Hentschel, Ladies and gentlemen, I thank you for inviting me to Osnabrück. Today I’m going to speak to you in German. That is for me both a pleasure and a challenge. I’m pleased to have come here, for the Osnabrück region is the home of Hans-Gert Pöttering. I have got to know, and have come to hold in high esteem, Hans-Gert Pöttering as President of the European Parliament. As the President of the European Central Bank, I am a regular guest at the Parliament. For us at the ECB, relations with the directly elected representatives of the people of Europe are very important. Osnabrück is also a suitable place for a speech on European integration. Its epithet is the “city of peace”. It was here and in Münster that the Peace of Westphalia was negotiated. It was the basis for peace in Europe in 1648 after the Thirty Years’ War. Today it is European integration that forms the basis for prosperity and peace in Europe during the last 60 years. Main part The euro is the most visible symbol of European unification. Economic and Monetary Union is the field in which integration has progressed the most. The euro is the currency now shared by 329 million people in 16 countries.