samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Despite the fact that this position is supported by a strong presence of foreign currency denominated liabilities in banks balance sheets and very close economic links to Euro-area countries like Italy and Greece, Bank of Albania has been consistent in its approach to introduce gradually regulatory measures that would discourage rapid increase in lending, encourage banks to lend more in domestic currency and increase transparency toward clients on banks products and services. On the other side, the monetary policy has successfully anchored expectations of very moderate growth in the price level and has supported demand for local currency financial assets by offering sufficient positive real return. As the crisis hit, the first impact in our economy was shown on the balance of payments, reflecting the relationships of our economy with the world. The increase of unemployment and the tightening of financing conditions in the neighboring countries of European Union were followed by the decline of Albanian emigrants’ remittances that live and work in those countries. While the gap between the domestic and external demand was widened, this was accompanied with an increase of current account deficit and the mounting pressure on the exchange rate. At the same time, the banking sector, which heavily dominates the financial system in Albania, reduced its funding contribution to the domestic economy as a response to the increasing demand for liquidity, following the deposit withdrawal from the public and an increasing borrowing demand from the Government.

This can be exemplified by the United States, where one-third of the import measured by value takes place by air, as is the case with 25% of export value of Africa 9 . (2)  What areas of Poland’s economic strategy call for changes in order that globalization can lead to a visible improvement in Poles’ living standard? Globalization is not a zero-sum game where some people gain, however at other people’s expense. Globalization has already enabled billions of consumers across the globe to enjoy enhanced living standard, as can be exemplified by lower prices, enhanced quality and increasingly diversified product and service offerings. Millions of Polish consumers also experience these benefits. Simultaneously, more than one million of Poles, the so-called euro 300-gross-pay generation, have obtained better paid jobs in other EU countries, following Poland’s accession to the EU. New jobs are created in Poland thanks to foreign direct investment and investment projects implemented by Polish companies that increase export production. Consumer optimism continues to grow, whereas fears related to the labour market subside. Poles enjoy an enhanced living standard and voice fewer concerns about their future. Undoubtedly, after our accession to the EU, Poland has achieved great success in the global economy. Does this mean that we can rest on our laurels and there is no need for rapid and farreaching changes? It is not quite right, however, as there are a number of areas where Poland ranks the very last.
Since the beginning of the recovery, the number of people employed in the euro area has risen by 9.2 million. Euro area unemployment declined to 8.1% in August, its lowest level in almost ten years. Consumer spending is being driven by steady growth in households’ real disposable income. Strong labour markets – with increasing job creation and rising wages – boost household income and, in turn, consumer spending. The investment outlook remains solid on the back of robust demand, improving profitability and favourable financing conditions. Since the end of 2014, bank lending rates in the euro area have declined significantly, by around 130 basis points for non-financial corporations and by around 110 basis points for households. Lending rates on very small loans, which can be used as a proxy for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), have fallen by more than 210 basis points. This is encouraging, as SMEs provide two-thirds of total private sector employment in the euro area. Overall, the underlying strength of domestic activity in the euro area continues to support a sustained adjustment in inflation. According to the flash estimates, HICP inflation increased to 2.1% in September, from 2.0% in August. On the basis of the latest oil futures prices, headline inflation is expected to hover around the current level for the rest of the year. Our most recent projections foresee annual headline inflation at 1.7% in 2018 and in each of the two subsequent years.

He worked on economic reconstruction in Afghanistan, and on coordination of financial policy with the G7 countries. All in all, an impressive job. Currently, John is a member of the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance, which aims at improving the functioning of the global financial architecture and governance. No less fascinating is John Taylor the teacher in both ‘quantitative’ and ‘qualitative’ terms. On the one hand, he has given countless speeches, hundreds of lectures, written several Page 3/4  textbooks and developed online courses. On the other hand, he is known for mixing teaching with entertainment. Indeed, John does not hesitate to use special didactic techniques to help students understand or remember material. During his classes, to cite just one example, John enters into a humorous dialogue with Adam Smith, revealing deep enthusiasm and dedication to the job. And by the way, this example is quite remarkable for someone who describes his humour “as mostly deadpan”, so that it generally takes a few lectures before his students are able to figure out when something is actually a joke. Having talked about John’s three occupations separately, I should emphasise how well they interact and stimulate one another. Research is integrated into college lectures; government work has enabled him to understand policy constraints, while this in turn has stimulated research. “Economic research,” John once wrote, “is most exciting and productive when it is policy-driven.” Karl Brunner could not have agreed more.
Although annual inflation may rise during the second quarter of 2011 amid very low base effects from food inflation, inflation is expected to fall gradually in subsequent periods to stabilize at around 5 percent by early 2012. I think analyzing the forecasts by comparing the latest data with the previous Report period would help to better understand the changes in forecasts. As I have mentioned earlier, we revised our output gap estimates slightly downwards compared to the April Inflation Report, owing to the anticipated impacts of the problems in the euro area on aggregate demand (Figure 34). However, there is no significant revision in the pace of the recovery, as the downward revision in the monetary policy stance is expected to partially compensate for the adverse impact of weaker external demand. In this respect, we based our assumptions on an outlook, in which there would not be a remarkable change in the pace of the recovery in economic activity. Accordingly, there has been no significant revision in the inflation forecasts for 2011 and onwards (Figure 34). BIS Review 133/2010  15  Any new data or information regarding the inflation outlook may lead to a change in the monetary policy stance. Therefore, I would like to underline once more that the assumptions regarding the future policy rates underlying the inflation forecast should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBT. 4.

Risks  In the last part of my speech, I would like to provide some information on the risks regarding the inflation outlook in the upcoming period and the prospective monetary policy strategies to be implemented should these risks materialize. By influencing commodity prices and external demand conditions, global economic activity would continue to be the main factor driving inflation dynamics and the monetary policy outlook. In this respect, the timing and the extent of monetary tightening to be implemented during 2011 under the baseline scenario may change depending on the course of economic activity. Recently, rising concerns regarding debt sustainability in several euro area countries and the spillover effects to the financial system have led to renewed turmoil across financial markets, underscoring the downside risks to global economic recovery. Furthermore, ongoing problems in credit, real estate and labor markets in advanced economies, with little policy options left in case of further disruption in global economic activity, suggest that downside risks regarding the pace of global growth are likely to persist for some time. Should the global economy face a longer-than-anticipated period of anemic growth, which would consequently delay domestic recovery significantly, the monetary tightening envisaged in 2011 under the baseline scenario may be postponed towards the end of 2011. Moreover, an outcome whereby global economic problems intensify and contribute to a contraction of domestic economic activity may trigger a new easing cycle. By contrast, monetary tightening may be implemented in an earlier period during 2011, should the recovery in economic activity materialize faster than expected.
As well, the ability of many accountants to hide a substantial volume of very large transactions “off the balance sheet”, contributed to the demise of many of these large financial institutions. I mention this to highlight the critical roles that Accountants can play in maintaining financial stability in national economies and thereby the global economy as a whole. The stable economic environment that Samoa has enjoyed over the past many years is also partly due to the responsible way that the members of the Samoa Institute of Accountants have carried out their duties. And, I commend and thank you all for that. Let me now say something about our economy, interest rates and a bit about the Central Bank’s expanded mandate. 2. Economic update for the first seven months of 2009/10 and outlook for the remaining five months  Mainly, as a result of the Global Financial Crisis, the Samoan economy declined by close to 5 percent in the last financial year which ended in June, 2009. So, as we tried to get our economy out of recession, through the introduction of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the country was struck by the devastating tsunami in September. In the event, Government and private sector resources were diverted for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of tsunami affected infrastructure and other sectors, and thus putting on hold (albeit temporarily) a number of developments identified in the 2009/2010 budget.

And, in line with this objective, foreign investments abroad by residents have been discouraged, to ensure that there are sufficient funds available for domestic investments. This stance of monetary policy will be reviewed when Government’s Budget for 2010/11 is finalized in June this year. Now let me say something briefly about interest rates. BIS Review 49/2010  3  4. Interest rates and bank fees  Ladies and Gentlemen, in the past twelve months or so, there has been much criticism by the private sector and the public at large of our relatively high interest rate environment. This debate has been ongoing since the outbreak of the global recession two years ago. Reflecting the continued easing of monetary policy, the Central Bank’s official interest rates have declined steeply to record low levels. Consequently, the commercial banks’ deposit rates have also fallen sharply. In the event, the commercial banks’ weighted average lending rate has declined to 10.7 percent in January this year, from 12.5 percent in March 2008. The commercial banks have undertaken to effect further reductions in their lending rates in the near future. These further reductions reflect the maturity of several long term wholesale deposits which have been reinvested at lower rates. In the medium to long term, the Central Bank is aiming at reducing the interest rates in Samoa, to be closer to those of our major trading partners (such as Fiji).
Monitoring the European Central Bank 3 ". CEPR London 2001 and Lars E. O. Svensson: Independent Review of the Operation of Monetary Policy in New Zealand: Report to the Minister of Finance. February 2001. BIS Review 51/2001  In Norges Bank, we have used both an unchanged interest rate and an interest rate scenario based on market expectations in our inflation reports. If Norges Bank projects price inflation as higher or lower than 2½ per cent, it is an indication that the Bank envisages an interest rate path that is higher or lower than the path on which the projection is based. There is uncertainty associated with all forecasts. This very uncertainty and the central bank’s assessment of the various risk factors constitute important supplementary information. In our Inflation Reports, the uncertainty associated with the projections is discussed explicitly. An account is given of which variables Norges Bank regards as particularly uncertain, which way this uncertainty points, and how a different scenario could influence price projections. In addition, a fan chart illustrating the uncertainty of the projections is presented. Calculations based on alternative assumptions are presented regularly. This illustrates the isolated effect on price inflation of changes in assumptions. It provides insight into the effect on price inflation of potential disturbances to the economy. We base our analyses and assessments of the inflation outlook and balance of risks on models. The RIMINI macroeconomic model, developed in Norges Bank’s Research Department, has been an important tool for the Bank’s analyses since 1994.

If it appears that inflation will be lower than 2½ per cent with unchanged interest rates, the interest rate will be reduced. There is symmetry here. It is equally important to avoid an inflation rate that is too low, or deflation, as it is to avoid an inflation rate that is too high. When the annual use of petroleum revenues is managed according to a long-term action plan, a policy for which there is currently fairly general political consensus, we should normally be able to use the interest rate as a policy instrument to prevent high inflation. Normally, monetary policy should also be a fairly effective means of countering a deflationary recession. Stagflation, ie stagnating output and rising unemployment combined with rapid inflation, which characterised economic developments in many countries in the 1970s and 1980s, originates in the supply and output side of the economy or in income determination. If the Norwegian economy should ever be threatened by stagflation tendencies, monetary policy must be directed towards maintaining low and stable inflation. At the same time, structural policy and incomes policy should contribute to improving the functioning of the economy, allowing economic growth and employment to pick up. A change in interest rates is not expected to have an immediate effect on inflation. Our analyses indicate that a substantial share of the effects of an interest rate change occurs within two years. Two years is thus a reasonable time horizon for achieving the inflation target of 2½ per cent.
In this time perspective, it is structural factors, such as demographics and long-term growth rates, that affect developments. One striking feature over recent decades is the downward trend in real interest rates around the world. Various explanations have been put forward for this, including demographic trends. 3 One theory that has attracted major attention is that the decline is a sign of secular stagnation, where different factors have driven up saving but dampened the propensity to invest. This has led to a chronic A more detailed description of the decline in global real interest rates and feasible explanations can be found in my speech at the Swedish Economics Association in 2017. 3  4 [13]  condition of “excessively low” demand in the economy, which has contributed to a lasting decline in real interest rates. Others think that it is not necessarily a question of secular stagnation, but that the situation can, for example, be better described as a deep recession following excessively high debt accumulation in many countries. An environment with a lower average repo rate The major question is what we can expect going forward. For a small, open economy like Sweden's, the interest rate on a global level is important as it affects domestic rates. With free movement of capital, it is difficult to have real interest rates that deviate a great deal from the global level in the long run, even if differences in demographic trends or long-term productivity growth can naturally play a part.

This may be due to an interest rate adjustment affecting their disposable income to a greater extent, as I just described. But it may also be due to highly indebted households reacting more to a given change in income than other households. You would expect this to be the case if households with high debt do not have the same opportunity as others to maintain their consumption by borrowing more. 5 See Sveriges Riksbank (2011), The Riksbank’s inquiry into risks on the Swedish housing market, and Hansen, S.  (2013), Explanations of the development of household indebtedness since the mid-1990s, Memorandum 1. Finansinspektionen. 6 See the article “How are households affected by rising interest rates?” in the December 2017 Monetary Policy Report, and Gustafsson, P. et al (2017), How are household cashflows and consumption affected by higher interest rates? Staff memo, Sveriges Riksbank. 7 See, for instance, Flodén, M. et al (2017), “Household Debt and Monetary Policy: Revealing the Cash-Flow Channel”. Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series 342. Sveriges Riksbank. 6 [13]  Greater interest-rate sensitivity creates uncertainty about the impact of monetary policy How total consumption will be affected when interest rates are gradually raised towards more normal levels is difficult to know. Interest expenditure will increase, and for some households by a relatively large extent. But the total effect will also depend on what happens in the economy otherwise as regards income from employment, housing prices, expectations, etc.
During that period, inflation has ranged from a low of 2.1% to a high of 3.2%. The experience of the past decade has been that low and stable inflation has gone hand in hand with more stable growth of output and employment. Total output in the economy has now increased for 28 consecutive quarters – an unprecedented period of positive growth. And unemployment, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, has fallen from a peak of 10.7% in 1993 to its current rate of 5.9%, the lowest level for nearly twenty years. The current outlook is for continued growth with low inflation. If Britain is to retain this degree of macroeconomic stability, then there will be periods when interest rates will rise and periods when they will fall. For some commentators, interest rates can never be too low. But for too long there has been a view that interest rates should rise only when necessary, and should be lowered whenever possible. That asymmetric response was a recipe for instability. The current monetary policy regime has been designed to lock in the greater stability of both inflation and output. There are three key elements in the regime. First, there is a clear and unambiguous objective for monetary policy – an inflation target of 2½% – set by the Government.

Reports from the Bank’s regional Agents indicated that business sentiment had deteriorated sharply, and the CBI October Industrial Trends Survey showed that optimism about business conditions among manufacturers fell to its lowest level since 1980. The possibility of a recession was widely discussed. The MPC responded to the change in sentiment and to worsening conditions in the world economy. It reduced interest rates by 2½ percentage points between October 1998 and June 1999. There has been a marked turn around in sentiment during this year. Confidence measures have returned to their pre-October 1998 levels. This volatility in sentiment, is not reflected in the statistics on economic growth. The latest estimates of output for the UK show that over the past two years, output growth has been steady and close to trend with the exception of two quarters (1998 Q4 and 1999 Q1) during which a run down in stocks temporarily reduced growth. In part this stability was the result of pre-emptive monetary policy which, by reacting to the forward-looking information in surveys and other data, was able to offset the volatility in confidence feeding through to the real economy. For sometime now, the high level of sterling together with falling world commodity and food prices have restrained retail price inflation. The prices of imports into the UK fell by 15% in the past four years. It is inevitable that this favourable impact on inflation can be only temporary.
To conclude I would like to stress more particularly five points. First, on the economic underpinnings, the main strategic goal of the Eurozone as well as of the European Union as a whole should be to increase substantially our growth potential. This is crucial and calls upon increasing very significantly in particular our rate of employment, our labour productivity progress and our technological and scientific basis. Second, as regards methodology, it is clear that we have to work out an appropriate concept for the actual, precise, to the point implementation of the reforms. The Lisbon agenda is excellent in terms of diagnosis. It is not associated with a precise and efficient decision making process, with a powerful delivery concept, which is absolutely indispensable. I was very encouraged to hear clearly Mr Mc Creevy stressing to the Governing Council of the ECB that the Irish Presidency will put the Lisbon agenda implementation on top of its priorities. The ECB will very warmly back initiatives of the Presidency in that domain. It is urgent. Third, as regards prioritization of structural reforms, I would personally particularly mention four points which seem to me of utmost importance in the Eurozone: Youth unemployment which is attaining unacceptable levels in some economies; unsatisfactory functioning of the Single Market in the service sector; insufficient labour productivity progress in the economy as a whole; and, lastly, consequences to be drawn from ageing in the management of the social protection schemes.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic reform in Europe Contribution by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Panel on EU/US cooperation at the Advancing Enterprise Conference, London, 26 January 2004. *  *  *  Mr Chancellor, Ministers members of the Ecofin, Ladies and Gentlemen, The European Central Bank (ECB) very much welcomes and supports the economic reform process in Europe and it is a great pleasure and honour for me to participate in this very distinguished panel. Well-designed structural reforms in capital, labour and product markets will increase the flexibility of the euro area economy, enhance its resilience against economic shocks and ultimately result in a higher long-term growth rate potential which should be our first priority in Europe. 1. The ECB contribution to long term sustainable growth  The ECB provides important contributions to the economic reform process by helping to ensure a stable macroeconomic environment in the euro area. In particular the ECB maintains price stability in the euro area and helps to ensure financial stability. Maintaining price stability contributes to an economic environment favouring growth and job creation. Four main reasons can be mentioned in this respect. First, it preserves and bolsters consumers’ purchasing power and enhances the efficiency of the market at allocating resources. Second, price stability paves the way for lower uncertainty and risk premia in financial markets: this ultimately implies lower medium and long-term interest rates.