samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Expansionary monetary policy affecting asset prices in this way is actually a part of the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, that is, the way that monetary policy spreads through the economy. But the effect on asset prices is not the objective of the policy. The objective is that the expansionary policy – through the effects on interest rates, asset prices, exchange rate, access to credit, expectations and so on – will in a couple of years contribute to increasing activity in the economy and bringing up employment and inflation. It is important not to lose this perspective in discussions of the distributional effects of monetary policy, as it broadens the spectrum of effects to more than just those coming through asset prices. Moreover, it points to the difficulties in determining the size of the distributional effects of monetary policy. One such difficulty is assessing what should actually be considered an effect of monetary policy and what is rather an effect of the conditions for monetary policy having changed. In a system like the national economy, it is not an easy task to distinguish between cause and effect. The Riksbank does not operate in a vacuum; it adapts its monetary policy to changing circumstances. 3 Moreover, if monetary policy were not adapted to new circumstances, this would also have distributional effects.

Waldenström, Daniel (2016), The National Wealth of Sweden, 1810–2014, Scandinavian Economic History Review 64(1), pp. 36–54,  14 [14]
At the Riksbank, we communicate our view on financial stability through different publications. A Financial Stability Report is published twice a year and we also publish articles on issues of financial stability in our journal, Economic Review. A new regulatory framework governing the way in which  2  BIS Review 24/2003  banking crises are to be managed and resolved has been proposed by a government inquiry that was set up after the Swedish banking crisis. The Riksbank strongly supports the implementation of such a framework as it would increase transparency and thereby the efficiency of crisis management even further. We have also sought to have these principles applied internationally. Transparency is also important in the sense that it facilitates external evaluation of the operations of a central bank on the basis of relevant information. This type of evaluation will normally enhance efficiency, and it is especially important in cases where the central bank determines its own budget. The monetary policy of Sveriges Riksbank is reported to the Swedish parliament twice a year and the bank's overall activities are subjected to regular evaluation by the Parliamentary Auditors. They recently performed a comprehensive audit of the operations of the Riksbank in which they highlighted a number of areas where costs appear to have increased more than expected. We welcome this evaluation, which has given us fresh inspiration in our search for increased efficiency. Finally, transparency stimulates improvement of a central bank's internal analysis and decision-making processes.

Is the credit decision taken on the basis of such evaluation - how current is the financial information on the borrower with the bank? The market is a dynamic place, where change takes place all the time. It is imperative that credit officers of banks be given maximum exposure to the real sector - the numbers in financial statements must have a direct relationship to the real sector to reflect the current status of the borrower’s business? They should support the repayment programme undertaken by the borrower on which the Bank’s credit decision was predicated. You will see thus that information is critical to risk management without which you are groping in the dark and before long you will be faced with large losses. The emphasis should therefore be on the early identification of risk, which if addressed at the very initial stages, would not expose the bank to large scale losses at a later stage. Effective credit risk management is the key to the health of the banking industry today. It is not the resolution of NPA but the cause of NPA that should be addressed. Internal rating systems must be developed to afford an accurate and continuous picture of the level of risk exposure of the bank to individual credit risk so that timely action can be taken to soften the risk. Management Information Systems must be strengthened. Preventive and remedial actions should encompass additional capital, better internal controls and/or safer provisioning policies. Capital is not a substitute for sound risk management.
Thus, first-quarter numbers showed a contrast between the fall in construction sectors and business and real estate services on one side, and growth in trade and the recovery of manufacturing lines that produce consumer goods on the other (figure 4). The improvement in investment in machinery and equipment—excluding uncommon transport equipment—is also worth noting, which, like durable consumer goods, has benefited from the need to replenish stocks after several years of low growth and exchange rate elements (figure 5). Finally, the greater execution of public spending contributed to increase government consumption, which also had a positive impact on activity. The increased stability in consumption occurs in a context where consumer expectations, although still in pessimistic territory, have improved somewhat. The labor market continues to adjust as expected, with the unemployment rate low by historic standards, but with salaried employment still weak and still decelerating wages. The downturn of salaried employment has been echoed by a rise in self-employment. As we show in a box in the MP Report, considering workers of equal experience and skills, a person that is self-employed or works in the informal sector, earns around 20% less per hour than a salaried employee. If we consider that the informal and self-employed work fewer hours per week, their income ends up being 30% to 40% less. Although the share of non-salaried employment in total employment has risen in the past few months, it has not diverted far from its historic indicators.

Denny H Kalyalya: Zambian financial sector – responding to the needs of business Speech by Dr Denny H Kalyalya, Deputy Governor-Operations of the Bank of Zambia; at the opening of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Solwezi Branch, Solwezi, 10 December 2008. *  *  *  The Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry, Hon. Felix Mutati The Minister, North-Western Province, Hon. Joseph Mulyata The Chairman of the Board of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia, Mr. George Sokota His Worship the mayor of Solwezi The Managing Director of Standard Chartered Bank, Mrs. Mizinga Melu Distinguished guests Members of the press Ladies and Gentlemen I am pleased to be here at the official opening of the new Solwezi Branch of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited. Ladies and Gentlemen, recent times have shown a proliferation of commercial bank branches in areas which had previously been considered unattractive for business. Rural areas had even experienced closures where banks felt that they were unable to establish a case for business. The economic environment that the Government created through the reforms instituted in the early 1990’s has given new confidence to investors and has provided an opportunity for businesses to grow, thereby attracting banks to the areas which were deprived of basic financial services. The opening of this branch today, in a town which has attracted major investments, is a demonstration that the financial sector is indeed, now responding to the needs of business.
12 They say that there has been a change in the composition of the labour force over the past  11  See Jonsson and Theobald (2019). 12 See Mojon and Ragot (2019). 8 [24]  ten years. Labour force participation in the age group 55-64 years has tangibly increased, which has slowed down prices and wages. If the compensation levels are lower, employees will have greater incentive to accept lower wages. This will also lead to companies’ costs declining and to price pressures slowing down. If employees’ negotiating strength weakens, their scope to have their wage demands accepted declines. This means lower wages and a downward adjustment in prices. One should not draw any definite conclusions regarding the implications for monetary policy on the basis of these results. While lower price pressures in themselves might justify a more expansionary monetary policy, decisions on the policy rate consist of an overall assessment of various different factors, where developments on the labour market are one such factor. On the other hand, one can say on the basis of these results that supply effects and long-term trends may be important pieces of the puzzle for monetary policy analysis. This is something that has been emphasised in other studies, too. 13  A flatter Phillips curve need not signify less of an impact from monetary policy.

Percentage of those born in Sweden and those born abroad in the labour force, aged 15-74 years. Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden (AKU)  Increased migration in Sweden and abroad During the latter part of the 19th century there was widespread emigration from Sweden to the United States in particular. Around 1.2 million Swedes emigrated to the United States between 1851 and 1930, which at that time was around one fifth of the population. The reasons were in many cases financial, but religious freedom and increased equality were also attractive. There were several factors that enabled emigration. The emergence of the steam ship was one factor. Liberal ideas on economics, politics and freedom – which made a breakthrough around Europe in the 19th century – were other factors. At the beginning of the 20th century, Sweden was an established “emigration country” with more emigrants than immigrants, see Figure 9. This was primarily due to the large-scale emigration, but we also had very few immigrants. In the year 1900 the percentage of people born abroad in relation to the population as a whole was just 0.7 per cent, with most of them coming from other Nordic countries. An interesting fact here is that the immigrants from outside of Europe comprised 90 people from South America, 79 from Africa (56 of whom were from  13 [24]  South Africa) and 87 from Asia.
We strive to keep our markets pro-business and to keep operating costs competitive. Being cost-competitive is not sufficient by itself. We need to make sure that Singapore continues to stay at the confluence of business opportunities. To facilitate business reach into major markets, Singapore has signed a series of Free Trade Agreements with many of our trading partners include the US, India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam as well as beginning free trade discussions with China and the Gulf countries. I am certain these strong ties that Singapore has built can only facilitate Deutsche Bank's business expansions in this part of the world. BIS Review 15/2007  1  Conclusion On that note, let me again extend my heartiest congratulations to Deutsche Bank on its 35th Anniversary in Singapore. We appreciate your commitment to Singapore and hope that Singapore will continue to play an important role in your growth in Asia and the world. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 15/2007

Who would have thought that, four years later, we would be confronted with an even stronger franc and even lower – indeed negative – short and longterm interest rates? These extraordinary developments are ultimately a consequence of the global recession which hit the economy after the credit bubble on the US real estate market burst in 2007. As slide 1 shows, the banks around the world were, and continue to be, especially hard hit by this crisis and its consequences; since then, their share prices have performed significantly worse than those of other companies. This is principally due to the fact that many banks are still engaged in cleaning up their balance sheets and, where necessary, adopting costly restructuring measures. Furthermore, banks have been obliged to implement stricter regulatory requirements in the wake of the financial crisis. These requirements, which are needed to ensure systemic stability, are aimed at curbing excessive risk-taking. From the banks’ point of view, however, today there are lower potential returns in areas which were previously often lucrative but also highly risky. Banks are also faced with structural challenges. The accelerated pace of change in information technology and altered customer behaviour require high levels of investment. At the same time, the increasing digitalisation of distribution channels has stiffened competition, since it is easier for new rivals to enter the market. Another significant challenge for banks is the current economic environment. Weak global growth and persistently low interest rates in recent years are weighing on profitability in the banking sector.
In addition, reforms aimed at removing rigidities and expenditure trigger effects in social welfare transfers would also be appropriate in some countries. The capacity of economies to respond successfully to the challenge of euro adoption would be further enhanced by a greater degree of price and wage flexibility. Generally speaking, the NMS have a satisfactory track record on this count, at least compared with the non-core euro area countries, but the extent to which the existing flexibility is enough to enable a sufficiently rapid catching up process in the context of an increasingly competitive global trading environment is yet to be assessed. An overriding consideration relates to the degree of vulnerability that an economy might experience during its participation in ERM II. This is now generally perceived as a testing period to be entered into once the economy is deemed a credible candidate for euro area membership, but not to be postponed to the extent of unduly retarding the adoption of the euro, with the consequent negative effects on policy credibility. Indeed, the exposure to the international markets which participation in ERM II implies requires NMS to follow even more prudent policies, especially on the fiscal front, compared to existing euro-area countries. This is needed to compensate for the vulnerabilities, not least that arising from capital account openness, which the NMS are facing. This aspect of ERM II appears not to be sufficiently understood by advocates of delayed euro adoption in some of our countries.

In the present scenario, pressures on the current account are being reinforced by the steady upward trend in international oil prices. Markets often view wide current account deficits as a sign of vulnerability, thereby fuelling volatility in capital flows. So far, a number of NMS with a flexible currency arrangement have managed such volatility through exchange rate flexibility, a tool which might, however, be progressively lost in the run-up to the adoption of the euro. Developments in financial intermediation may also pose significant challenges in this regard. Thus far there has been a tendency for credit to be relatively low compared to economic activity in NMS, as banks, which are largely foreign-owned in a number of these countries, have been generally averse to advancing a significant amount of credit to enterprises, although tending to step up lending to households. 7 This implies the possibility that with a further internationalisation of the financial sector on account of the introduction of the euro, there could be a more rapid credit expansion through bank borrowing from abroad, with the attendant dangers of overheating and the formation of asset price bubbles. 4  Schadler et al (2005)  5  Begg et al (2003)  6  For example Cipriani (2000), Kovacs (2002) and Mihaljek and Klau (2003)  7  Schadler et al (2005)  2  BIS Review 53/2006  These considerations have important implications for the maintenance of financial stability in the NMS.
BIS Review 126/2010  7  Figure 5 GDP growh in selected regions and countries (1) (2) (annual change, percent)  Monetary policy rates in the world (3) (percent) 14  14  12  12  10  10  8  8  0  6  6  -5  -5  4  4  2  2  -10  -10  15  15  10  10  5  5  0  00  02  04  06  América Latina EE.UU. Japón  08  10  0  0  02  04  06  08  10  Developed economies (4) Emerging economies (5) Chile  Asia ex Japón Zona Euro  (1) Regions are weighted by PPP as in WEO, April 2010. (2) Dots show growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011 respectively included in the baseline scenario of September 2010's Report. (3) Solid lines describe simple-averaged reference rates of each group of countries. Dots show averaged responses from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg during August 2010. These reflect expectations for September 2010, December 2010, March 2011 and June 2011. (4) Includes Canada, the Eurozone, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the U.K. and the U.S.. (5) Includes Brazil, Colombia, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on statistics institutes of each country, Bloomberg and IMF.

Turning to Thailand, although the Thai banking sector is resilient and has been largely immune to the global financial turmoil, the impact of the crisis on Thailand has been quite hard owing to the economy’s high dependency on exports. As noted earlier, economic activities contracted sharply in the fourth quarter of last year and in the first quarter of this year, but the situation started to stabilize from the second quarter onward as economic activities began to show signs of improvement consistent with the developments observed elsewhere. Latest data for September point to continued improvements in economic activities, both in private consumption and investment, reflecting largely the benefits that domestic demand has gained from fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy. Exports in September contracted by 8.3 percent year on year, much lower than the contractions of 17.9 and 25.7 percents of the previous two months. On the output side, recovery in domestic demand has been met by stronger activities in production. Index of manufacturing production rose by 0.4 percent year on year in September, while the rate of capacity utilization in manufacturing increased to 64.7 percent. On economic and financial stability, economic stability remains intact in Thailand with strong external positions marked by continued current account surpluses, high level of international reserves, and a low and stable external debt. As for inflation, the emerging signs of recovery have not put pressure on domestic prices.
However, with the normalization in financial markets, we foresee that the distinguishing characteristics of countries will come to the fore in the upcoming period and currencies of those countries with lower risk, stronger economic and financial fundamentals and high growth potential are expected to perform better. In this regard, it would not be surprising if Turkey’s credit rating is raised to reach the investment grade implied by the actual CDS spread. As for recent developments in the Turkish economy, the moderate recovery in economic activity continues. Quarterly growth in GDP continued in the last quarter of 2009. As tax cuts that were put into practice with the aim of spurring economic activity were phased out, private consumption demand displayed a more moderate rise compared to the first half and the gradual recovery in private consumption expenditures continued in the third quarter. Meanwhile, private investment expenditures continued to pick up in the last quarter but remained lower compared to strong growth periods. Taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to domestic and foreign demand and the low capacity utilization rates, it is estimated that it would take an extended period of time for investment expenditures to reach their pre-crisis levels and no significant rise is expected in the short run. Recently, imports have increased faster than exports and this indicates that the recovery in the economy is mainly driven by domestic demand. The course of exports in the upcoming period will be determined by the pace of global recovery.

Meanwhile, the improvement in global risk perceptions in the fourth quarter led the currency of many developing countries to appreciate. In terms of changes in currency values, the Turkish lira did not significantly differ from currencies of other emerging markets in this period. Public debts and budget deficits have increased on a worldwide scale due to fiscal stimulus and decreasing tax incomes. In many countries, the ratio of public debt to national income went beyond the sustainable level of 60 percent (Maastricht Criteria), which may ease concerns about public finance and create upward pressures on market interest rates. I am of the opinion that, should market interest rates increase; the severity and duration of the global crisis will be adversely affected. The discipline established by Turkey in public finance in the past has significantly increased the resilience of the public against external shocks as well as confidence regarding the sustainability of debts. These improvements in the structure of public finance and the sustainability of debts allowed the implementation of expansionary fiscal measures, albeit limited, in order to alleviate the impact of the global crisis. In this respect, SCT and VAT rates on some products were temporarily reduced to allow de-stocking for firms and a new investment incentive system was established to improve the investment atmosphere. Additionally, tax cuts and fiscal incentives were introduced to increase employment, and  BIS Review 79/2010  5  credit and guarantee supports were provided for SME’s and exporting firms.