samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If, for as long as it lasts, financing the deficit 5  The word “relatively” is important here – what matters is the behaviour of domestic demand compared with that in other countries. If demand weakens in other countries the home country’s exchange rate will still appreciate even if nothing happens to domestic savings rates. [More here on global imbalances] 6 For a thorough treatment of the relationship between imbalances and the exchange rate – and specifically the chain of causation running from the former to the latter – see Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000), Obstfeld and Rogoff (2007). 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  relies on “the kindness of strangers” (as the Governor once described it) perhaps the foreign exchange market thinks those strangers will be less generous to a UK outside the EU. International capital markets might require a higher premium for sterling finance. If so, this would slow the growth of domestic demand 7  that much earlier, accelerate a rebalancing of the economy and depress the fair value of the exchange rate . While possible in principle, I’m not convinced this is the main explanation for sterling’s reaction to the referendum result. The currency has remained weak even in the face of robust consumption growth since that date.

We know too that 11  export prices rose strongly last year, much faster than those of domestic-facing firms . At a rough guess, and relative to that in the non-traded sector, this will have pushed up the rate of return in the 12  traded sector by 2-3 percentage points .   Second – and this is in sharp contrast to the early 1990s – there is only limited spare capacity in the economy, including in its more tradable sectors (Chart 10 again). One would certainly expect net export volumes to improve this year. But one would also expect a greater share of the response to the depreciation, compared with the early 1990s, to come via stronger investment, less of it from  11  While export prices rose 12% in the year to 2016Q4, gross output prices across the economy as a whole, excluding the government sector, rose by around 4½% (by gross I mean including the cost of imports). With exports worth around one quarter of gross output, this would imply output-price inflation in the rest of the economy of less than 2%. 12 Higher prices boost profits, and disproportionately so, given the operational gearing. On the other hand exporting firms will also be paying more for their imports, on which they rely more than others. To work out the overall impact on profits you need to net out the extra cost of imports.
Among others, we would adopt the Regulatory Sandbox Framework, allowing banks and FinTech firms to test their innovation with limited group of customers before launching their services to broader public. Financial institutions are also allowed to invest more flexibly in FinTech related venture capital . It is worth noting here that the benefits of FinTech are not only limited to lower cost of financial services but also greater financial inclusion, to which I now turn. Greater financial inclusion not only improves welfare of the people but also unleashes economic potential of the previously excluded. The Bank of Thailand has focused on promoting financial system’s access and inclusion. For instance, e-Payment channels play an important role in providing payment access at low costs. Money transfer via the PromptPay platform will be free for the amount not higher than 5,000 baht. Besides, the government will also be able to use e-Payment as a means to directly transfer welfare benefits to the targeted group of end beneficiaries as mentioned by the Minister of Finance. In addition to embracing FinTech and implementing the e-Payment as part of the key measures to improve financial access, other notable measures are the implementation of the Business Security Act and the expansion of data bases for individual and SME borrowers. The Business  Security Act, which came into effect in July of this year, expands the list of eligible collaterals for secured lending by financial institutions to include things like inventories, and receivables.

The passage of this Act is a win-win for small businesses as well as banks. The Bank of Thailand regulations on loan classification, provisioning requirement, and valuation guidelines have been issued to help banks adopt this new collateral regime. 4/5  BIS Central Banker's Speeches  Ultimately however, we would like to see Thailand moving from collateral-based lending towards cash-flow-based lending especially for small businesses with few or no eligible collaterals but otherwise viable prospects. In order to do so, we need to have sufficient data for credit risk enhancement and monitoring. In light of this objective, we are developing an industry-wide SME database from pooled bank data for banks to use for their planning and risk management. In addition, we are working with relevant parties to amend the Credit Bureau Act to expand its membership to players like Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lenders. These efforts would get along well with the government policy to expand the roles and coverage of Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) to provide credit access for SMEs lacking collateral security. Ladies and Gentlemen. If we look beyond our domestic market, increasing regional integration brings numerous exciting business opportunities. Thailand’s strategic location at the heart of Mainland ASEAN along with close economic relations with our neighbors make us a natural candidate to become a regional connector of trade and financial services. We have offered many fronts to enhance such connectivity.
No one thought that it should be abandoned. And we have received a few suggestions on how we should improve upon the operation of our system. We welcome these discussions which have sharpened our own thinking in the process of debate and analysis. Whilst one or two of these idea may have some psychological but possibly only short term value, they also carry considerable downside risks of undermining confidence in a well tried system. I am also pleased to say, therefore, that we have indeed been quite thorough in our monetary reform in the past ten years. (a) Role of interest rates 36. One school of thought promoted by a group of academics in Hong Kong with specific proposals for various schemes, which I must confess I have found difficult to appreciate, seems to be based on the notion that one could maintain stability in both the exchange rate and the interest rates at the same time. No matter how these schemes are dressed up, involving insurance products, guarantees, options or other fancy derivatives of one type or another, I fear that they have very little likelihood of success. Keeping interest rates artificially down when there is capital outflow amounts to providing cheap funding to those who are shorting the currency. It requires massive intervention in the forward market or a contingent commitment of foreign reserves that even those with very large foreign reserves would find the situation difficult to hold.

Mugur Isărescu: Overcoming economic problems, the experiences of Sweden and Turkey – an inspiration for Romania? Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the conference “Overcoming economic problems, the experiences of Sweden and Turkey – an inspiration for Romania?”, Bucharest, 23 September 2013. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Excellences, Distinguished Guests It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the National Bank of Romania. I salute the presence of such a distinguished audience: Their Excellences, the Ambassadors of Sweden, Turkey, Brazil, Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands, members of the diplomatic corps, economists, bankers, businessmen, journalists. We are honored to host this international conference: “Overcoming economic problems, the experiences of Sweden and Turkey: are these an inspiration for Romania?” The title is, I believe, self-explanatory. In today’s globalized world, learning from other countries’ experience is of utmost importance. And while it might be true that no one really learns but from his own mistakes, one can hope that some other mistakes may be avoided when learning from other people’s experiences. Why Sweden and Turkey? Before answering this question I wish to emphasize that the National Bank of Romania is open and willing to host other conferences with similar topics. And today’s conference might be considered the first of a series, involving clusters of countries with relevant interactions.
But that should not obscure the fact that in terms of the overall economy - including here in the North West, things are better than they’ve been in a long while. And I am reasonably confident that we will find a way through the macro-economic, demand management, challenges. In the meantime there is a great deal that you can do - and are doing - yourselves, here in the North West, under the leadership of the NWDA, in partnership with the other public authorities, the Universities, and the private business sector, to identify - on the basis of your local knowledge - the particular obstacles to, and the particular opportunities for, creating a more positive and flexible supply-side environment for the future. In thanking you, Bryan, once again for joining with us in hosting this dinner this evening, I wish you all possible success. BIS Review 59/2002  3

Market participants and products The market for credit derivatives attracts a large number of market participants who have not been active in the credit market earlier. The most important buyers of credit risk are large institutional investors such as insurance companies and pension funds. Hedge funds are also large actors. The main sellers of credit risk are banks and other credit institutions who want to relieve themselves of parts of their credit risk, for instance to meet capital adequacy requirements from authorities or merely to use their capital more efficiently. In practice, the credit derivative market is centred on a few globally-active banks, which function as brokers in the trade. The ten largest counterparties on the market account for a good 85 per cent of the total volumes traded and are represented by large investment banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UBS. At the same time as the volumes have increased, the products have developed. The largest growth is currently in the new products, including what is known as index products. Somewhat simplified, a typical index product reflects a portfolio of credit risks in different companies, instead of reflecting the credit risk in a single company 3 . The index products increase the investors’ opportunities to spread their investments in the credit market. In this context, I would also like to mention that there are alternative credit insurance methods that have likewise developed strongly. One of these is traditional syndicated loans.
The global climate crisis – a challenge that requires cooperation To be able to answer the question of whether the Riksbank can and should have an active role in combatting climate change, we must first answer two other questions. First, what is effective climate policy? And second, what lies within the Riksbank’s mandate? One of the fundamental causes of the climate crisis is the fact that, in the absence of climate policy, greenhouse gases can be released free of charge, despite the damage such emissions cause. Economists tend to call the negative effects for which the individual emitter does not need to pay negative “external” effects. Neither does it matter where on Earth the greenhouse gases are emitted. Emissions have the same effect on global warming regardless of whether they occur in China, the United States or Sweden. Climate change is, in other words, a global challenge that is best met through global cooperation. 13  See Lagerwall (2019). 8 [18]  A price on carbon is the highest priority To tackle the negative external effect of greenhouse gas emissions, a price on carbon is required.14 The most effective solution would be a uniform price on carbon emissions all over the world. This can be arranged through carbon taxes or through trading in emission rights.

SPEECH DATE:  2020-03-03  SPEAKER:  Deputy Governor Anna Breman  VENUE:  Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences, Stockholm  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  How the Riksbank can contribute to climate policy1 I would like to start by extending a warm thank-you to Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute, Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien, och Misum for arranging this seminar. Perhaps you recognise the expression Hinc robur et securitas. It is Latin for From here, strength and security. It is the Riksbank’s motto. It is on the Riksbank’s emblem and it has also be seen on some of our banknotes. I learnt this when I arrived at the Riksbank as a new Deputy Governor a few months ago and it stuck – from here, strength and security. As a new Deputy Governor, I feel a responsibility for preserving the Riksbank’s role as a guarantor of strength and security when the world around us is fraught with unease – unease over trade wars, unease over the coronavirus, and unease over climate change, to give a few examples. For a new Deputy Governor, it also becomes evident that those of us in the Executive Board make decisions that affect economic development for households and companies for several years to come. But the statistics we require to fully understand developments can sometimes be incomplete and forecasts are always very uncertain.
The orientation of economic policy in these areas will have to focus strongly, at the level of both national authorities and European institutions, on consistency, flexibility and credibility if we are to extract the maximum gains for all out of this next step in European integration. Long run net benefits of euro adoption In order to place this topic in its proper context it is first important to recall that the adoption of the euro is expected to produce significant net benefits for the NMS in the long run. A consistent body of literature points to the likelihood of substantial output growth arising out of increased external trade in countries forming currency unions. Recent studies suggest trade gains of between 6% and 15% from the creation of the euro after five years of its existence. 1 On the basis of these estimates, euro adoption could raise GDP by at least 1% to 2% over 20 years in the NMS. 2 These gains arise from the elimination of exchange rate volatility and risk, lower transaction costs, increased competition and price transparency, all of which lead to trade creation. Lower risk premia on borrowing costs and the stronger frameworks for policy discipline prevailing within the euro area are other potential sources of economic growth.

Such considerations will no doubt have played a part in the recent decision by the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to seek the advice of the European Central Bank (ECB) in developing a blueprint for forming a currency union and introducing a common currency by 2010. In a similar context, the announcement last week that Iceland is considering joining the euro is most significant. The country’s Prime Minister is reported to have said, “It’s clear [that] it’s not easy to run a small economy and a small currency in a big market”. There will also, of course, be long-term costs arising from the adoption of the euro associated with the loss of monetary and, particularly, exchange rate policy autonomy. Studies based on the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criteria, however, suggest that NMS are not likely to suffer from a more pronounced incidence of asymmetric shocks than the existing non-core euro area members. 3 Moreover, the nature of shocks to which the economies of these countries are generally subject do not  1  Faruqee (2004)  2  Schadler et al (2005)  3  Fidrmuc (2001), Boreiko (2002)  BIS Review 53/2006  1  necessarily require intervention on the nominal exchange rate, provided that more efficient mechanisms for aggregate demand management are in place.
According to this equation, consumption falls by around 80 per cent of the decline in disposable income, that is, around 1.6*0.80 = 1.3 per cent. Consumption comprises around 50 per cent of GDP. However, consumption also contains an imported content of around 25 per cent, which means that if consumption falls by 1 per cent, GDP falls by roughly 0.5*(1–0.25) = 0.38 per cent. In the example, thus, GDP falls by 1.3*0.38, or around 0.5 per cent. A more thorough calculation should also take into account indirect effects that arise over time. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  If, on the other hand, one waits to take measures, the adjustment costs for households when the measures are actually taken will be greater. If interest rates have risen to twice what they are now, which is not at all inconceivable, the effects of abolishing the tax relief will be correspondingly greater. In my opinion, it is thus much better to try to do something about household debt now, when interest rates are low and the conditions in general are relatively favourable, than to be forced to take measures further ahead, when conditions may be less benevolent and the adjustment costs for both individual households and society as a whole will be unnecessarily high. A step in the right direction: more amortisation So how should we deal with the debt problems? I have discussed and compared a number of different possible measures to counteract excessively high debt in the household sector.

The debt ratio has almost doubled in twenty years and this is not a sustainable development. There is a risk that overly optimistic expectations of low interest rates for a long time to come have contributed to increased indebtedness. And a rapid growth in debt, together with optimistic expectations, is a pattern that has often preceded financial crises. Even without a crisis, a large debt overhang will hamper economic developments when conditions change. If one wants to influence the incentives for households to take on debt, how effective might the potential measures be? And how do measures in the new field of macroprudential policy compare with other possible measures? Here we are still to a large extent on uncharted ground. But even if we cannot base our decisions on extensive theoretical and empirical research, we can at least gain a rough idea of the potential effects to be expected, by using some simple calculations. I would like to emphasise that the figures I will mention refer to partial and statistical calculations that are based on a number of simplifying assumptions and that they must therefore be taken with a pinch of salt. At the same time, the calculations illustrate the conditions for taking practical decisions. Ordinary households in Luleå, Upplands Väsby and central Stockholm Let us look at some “typical households”, ordinary Swedish households consisting of two adults and two children. Let us say that one of them comes from the municipality of Upplands Väsby outside Stockholm and one from the city of Luleå in Norrbotten.
Caleb M Fundanga: Banking in Zambia and the Kwacha appreciation Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the German Ambassador’s working lunch, Lusaka, 7 June 2006. *  *  *  •  Your Excellency, the Germany Ambassador to Zambia, Dr. Ireen Hinrichsen;  •  Representatives of German Banks in South Africa;  •  The German Business Community;  •  Representatives of Local Banks;  •  Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen. On behalf of the Zambian people and indeed on my own behalf, it gives me great pleasure to welcome our German visitors to Zambia. I am deeply humbled to be invited for this business luncheon hosted by Your Excellency. This interaction, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, is very important to foster and enhance mutual co-operation between our two great nations. Your Excellency, with your permission, I will begin my address by discussing banking in Zambia and then proceed to give some highlights on the recent economic developments in the country. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, in the early 1990s, Zambia embarked on economic liberalisation, of which reforming the financial sector was a major part. Specific measures which were undertaken included, among others, the removal of all restrictions on interest rates and elimination of controls on foreign exchange rates. Interest and exchange rates are now market determined, principally based on demand and supply.

Luis de Guindos: Interview in Expresso Interview with Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, and Expresso, conducted by Mr João Silvestre on 15 April 2020. * * *  Is this the greatest crisis in living memory? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this will be the worst downturn since the Great Depression. There is a great deal of uncertainty and, given this degree of uncertainty, we need to define and analyse several scenarios. The IMF’s baseline scenario is very similar to other public and private sector forecasts. It’s important to bear in mind that the impact on the economy, which will be huge, is concentrated in the second quarter of the year – as well as in March – and that the impact will be severe, but temporary. This temporary aspect is important. The calculations point to a contraction in the second quarter by as much as 20% compared with the previous quarter. And it will also have an impact on public finances and the financial markets. Despite the uncertainty you have mentioned, is a rapid recovery possible in 2021? The key factor is the duration of the lockdown – the longer it lasts, the greater the impact. We hope that the containment measures will start to be eased over the coming months, reducing the negative impact on the economy, and that we will see a return to positive growth rates in the second half of the year.