samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Our main concern is that across euro area countries domestic vulnerabilities are still very large, which implies a limited ability to withstand adverse external shocks and to kick start a new phase of sustainable growth. The vulnerabilities of many euro area countries are related to the high stock of debt, both public and private, and to a number of structural rigidities and institutional bottlenecks that prevent an optimal allocation of resources across factors of production, and thus limit total factor productivity growth. The current environment not only urgently calls for the implementation of structural reforms, but also provides the right conditions for their implementation. With our monetary policy, the ECB is greatly contributing to an environment favourable to implementing structural reforms: our accommodative monetary policy stance helps countries to gain time, time to implement the necessary measures to increase resilience and thus support sustainable growth. However, there is only a limited role for demand-side policies. Fiscal space is limited and monetary policy cannot carry the burden of the adjustment alone. For the euro area to become more resilient and sustain stronger growth, national governments need to bring about further structural change 1. Work in this regard has already started, and the reform wave of the countries hardest hit by the crisis is showing some initial results, such as a GDP recovery related to comprehensive labour market reforms. Other reforms, mainly on product markets, are expected to bring about GDP gains, but they need to be implemented in full.

Lars Nyberg: The Riksbank and the property market Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a lunch meeting, arranged by Connect Skåne, Kristianstad, 6 November 2006. *  *  *  To begin with, I should like to thank you for the invitation to come here to Kristianstad to speak about developments in the property market. This is a subject that certainly engages people, not merely us economists but also people who are not usually interested in economics or what the Riksbank does. The main interest is probably due to a house purchase being the largest individual investment most of us make in our lives. The Riksbank’s interest in the property market is based on the two tasks we have been set by the Riksdag (the Swedish parliament). One is to ensure that inflation remains at two per cent a year, with a tolerated deviation interval of plus/minus one percentage point. The other task is to "promote a safe and efficient payment system”, as it says in the text of the law. We wish to avoid the type of catastrophe Sweden experienced during the bank crisis at the beginning of the 1990s and we usually call this safeguarding financial stability. As I shall discuss a little later, developments in the property market can be significant for both these tasks and this is the reason for our interest.
Financial development, indeed, is an integral part of economic development. The relatively small financial market in Thailand means that largescale cross-border activities, especially mergers and acquisition, cannot take place without adversely affecting financial market volatility. Promoting deeper financial market would help facilitate more long-term direct investment that is needed for the economy to upgrade its technological capability. Financial development also entails broader banking and payment issues. For example, diversifying the sources of financing and reducing the degree of dependence on banks, would help the financial system better absorb shocks and improve efficiency of funding. Upgrading the financial infrastructure and payment system is necessary for the economy to reap full benefits from regional trade integration in the new digital age. Implementing financial development is not a straightforward task, and among other things, it is complicated by the need to ensure financial stability. Bigger financial system can increase the system’s fragility, which if left unchecked, could undermine economic development efforts. Financial innovation, in some instances, could encourage risk-taking activity that raises rather than reduces market inefficiencies. These considerations mean that financial development must be accompanied by a robust policy framework that places financial stability as a high priority. This is indeed the practice followed by the Bank of Thailand. Monetary policy On that note, let me briefly discuss the role of the Bank of Thailand in this new environment. Our key contribution to the long-term economic development efforts is to provide a stable macroeconomic and financial backdrop, so that the prosperity can be attained without interruptions.

But the maritime industry has always known this – being able to ride the waves, to adjust course, and to seize the winds makes all the difference not just to success but survival itself. I wish the maritime community all the best as it works together to overcome current challenges, seize new opportunities, and build resilience for the future. Thank you. 1 McKinsey Global Institute (2017). “Jobs lost, jobs gained: workforce transitions in a time of automation”. 2 World Maritime University (2019). “Transport 2040: Automation, Technology, Employment – The Future of Work". 3 This was in partnership with the Singapore Exchange, Global Compact Network Singapore, Institute of  Singapore Chartered Accountants, and sustainability consultants from EY, KPMG, and PwC Singapore. 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches
As you know, we have already spent close to three-quarters of a year studying both sets of issues in depth. Because both banks and securities firms have a great interest in the potential solutions to these particular issues, the Basel Committee has worked jointly with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) to consult with industry representatives and other supervisors on  2  BIS Review 17/2005  these matters. I must say that this co-operation with IOSCO in areas of mutual interest has been a very fruitful and beneficial experience, and the work has been conducted in a very positive and collaborative spirit. Also in this regard, I must extend my thanks to ISDA and its members for being faithful and active participants in these discussions. ISDA and its members have volunteered again considerable data, time, and energy to the work at hand. As you may already know, there are five specific areas of focus, namely First, the treatment of counterparty credit risk for over-the-counter derivatives, repo-style and securities financing transactions; Second, the treatment of double-default effects for hedged transactions, in relation with trading book, but also banking book, exposures; Third, the short-term maturity adjustment, under the internal ratings-based approach, for some trading book-related items; Fourth, a limited number of improvements to the current trading book regime, especially with respect to the treatment of specific risk; and Fifth, the design of a specific capital treatment for unsettled and failed transactions.

In particular, the activities and institutions which the Bank and the Authority will be expected to monitor will become more complex as the number of financial intermediaries with a presence both in Malta and in other countries, either directly through the establishment of branches or subsidiaries, or indirectly through the provision of cross-border services via the internet or otherwise, continues to grow in the light of the incorporation of EU passporting rights in Maltese legislation. The coming into effect of Basle II and, at the EU level, CAD III will be significant factors in this regard. At the same time, the tendency of companies to seek multiple listings in different securities markets means that interest rates and stock market valuations in one country will increasingly mirror those in other countries, even though the underlying economic fundamentals of that country might warrant some divergence in such variables. Indeed, as has been the experience of other countries, the trend towards consolidation and merger activity in the various segments of the market, from banking and the selling of insurance and investment funds to the provision of payment services and trading facilities, will lead to a situation where the institutions to be supervised will vastly exceed the financial resources and technical expertise available to supervisors and central banks.
The National Bank incurs risks on its investments that cannot be hedged based on monetary policy concerns. Losses from gold and foreign currencies in particular can be significant. An adequate volume of reserves allows the National Bank to bear these risks, especially since such fluctuating values tend to correct themselves over the long term. Greater diversification of both the currencies and the investment instruments can bring about the necessary growth of monetary reserves. Diversification effects permit investments in higher-yielding and - from an individual perspective - riskier investments such as equities and corporate bonds without substantially increasing the overall risk. The return potential of monetary reserves depends on the liquidity and security requirements of the investments in terms of monetary policy considerations. Pursuing an efficient investment policy for the National Bank means achieving a return potential that is as high as possible within the existing restrictions. Under the new Act, the National Bank will pursue a broader diversification of its investments and, in particular, also invest in equities and corporate bonds. Because of the National Bank’s special position as a central bank, the exposure to equities and corporate bonds is subject to some specific considerations: first, a conflict of interest may arise  BIS Review 39/2004  1  between monetary policy and investment policy. For instance, interest rate hikes by the National Bank can have a negative impact on a company’s profits. Second, owing to its responsibilities in the area of system stability, the National Bank has insider information in the financial sector.

While GDP growth this year is forecast to be moderate, around 1.5 per cent, growth in both 2004 and 2005 is expected to be appreciably higher, approximately 2.5 per cent. So growth in coming years is anticipated to be somewhat higher than the potential growth we had forecast for Sweden in recent years. If Swedish economic activity is to rise as forecast, there will need to be a pick-up in investment. This began to fall as early as 2001 in manufacturing, and the following year it declined in the whole economy. Like many other forecasters we viewed the decline in investment as more transitory than it later proved to be. A year ago, our forecasts pointed to a turnaround at the beginning of 2003 (see Chart 3). In the June Inflation Report, it was forecast that investment would be delayed and begin to rise at the beginning of 2004. During the second quarter this year, gross capital formation fell by approximately 2 per cent according to the National Accounts. And in its latest forecast from August, the National Institute for Economic Research expects an increase in investment to be delayed further. The situation is clearly uncertain, even if the fundamental conditions for a rise in investment are good, with low interest rates, stable equity market growth and expectations of a recovery in the international economy. Another source of concern is connected with Swedish household consumption.
Managing risks  Managing risks is about sharing risks with others. By finding ways of pooling risks we share both the upside and downside with others. This is beneficial because typically we dislike extremes. In the language of economics, we are ‘risk averse’. A key part of managing risk is the design of institutions that determine the ultimate incidence of risk. The Pensions Commission performed a valuable service in making us aware of the size of the shortfall in our current savings to finance future pension provision. It will report next year on various ways of closing this funding gap. But there is an additional and fundamental question of how to design a pension system which shares risk optimally among individuals and generations. Longevity risks are both individual and collective in nature. Collective risks raise difficult issues of fairness between generations. Individual risks are easier to handle. 15  On the use and misuse of statistics see Best (2001) and Briscoe (2000). An outstanding analysis of common mistakes in visual representations of statistical data can be found in Tufte (1983, 1990). 16  Robert Rubin, former US Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration, has stressed the importance of probabilistic thinking in policy-making (Rubin and Weisberg, 2003). 17  Letter to Frederick the Great, April 16, 1767. BIS Review 73/2004  7  In theory, individual longevity risks can be pooled through private annuity markets.

BIS Review 73/2004  1  coincidences are not evidence of guilt. Bookshops do not stock such titles as “I would have been a billionaire if only Lady Luck had been faithful”.3 In my lecture tonight I want to illustrate two propositions. First, in a wide range of collective decisions it is vital to think in terms of probabilities. We cannot avoid taking decisions, so we must accept the need to analyse the uncertainty that inevitably surrounds them. H.G. Wells is often reported as saying that, “Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write”. And that is even more true today when we are inundated with statistics from every quarter. Second, in order that public discussion can be framed in terms of risks, the public needs to receive accurate and objective information about the risks. Transparency and honesty about risks should be an essential part of both the decision-making process and the explanation of decisions. I want to illustrate those two propositions by considering as an example public policy about pensions an issue, you might think, of particular interest to many of us in the Academy. When the Pensions Commission reported in October, it highlighted the financing gap in our present system. But we must not lose sight of the equally important question of what are the risks incurred in pension provision and how should they be shared among us? It is not my intention to make any recommendations.
Jean-Claude Trichet: A rich variety of cultures at the heart of Europe Interview with Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung special supplement of the ECB Cultural Days, published on 4 October 2009. *  *  *  1. The ECB Cultural Days have been held seven times since their launch. On three occasions, they have featured countries from eastern Europe. What does eastern Europe bring to Europe and to Frankfurt, in particular? It is very important for the ECB – with our staff coming from all 27 EU Member States – to discover or rediscover the wealth of European culture in the international environment of Frankfurt and its surrounding area. As you say, it has always been our aim to embrace the whole of Europe, both the old and new members of the European Union. It is no accident that we have welcomed three central and eastern European and three western European countries. Last year, on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the ECB, the events involved all 27 EU Member States in order to underline the diversity of European culture. This year, the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Iron Curtain, the event takes place against the unique backdrop of the reunification of Europe. 2. You made a speech on European culture in Frankfurt this spring, which explored the link between the concepts of roots, diversity and identity. Did you have the ECB Cultural Days in mind? Of course.

In my book, this is not only bad for the needed cyclical recovery in aggregate demand. I suspect that it will impede the rebalancing of the economy’s productive capacity. Firms wishing to enter or expand export markets, or compete against importers, often need credit. Finance is the oil that lubricates the allocation – and so, in current circumstances, reallocation – of capital in our economy. This is manifestly affecting SMEs. My hunch is that housing market conditions are a factor too. As long as anyone can remember, a crucial element of SME finance has been the capacity of entrepreneurs to pledge their home at the outset of a loan or, contingently, if and when their business hits choppy waters. Uncertainties about the path of house prices do not make that a comfortable backdrop for lenders in current conditions. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Rebalancing will affect labour market conditions too. Perhaps the greatest surprise to the MPC over the past few years has been subdued productivity growth. One could think of this as firms maintaining employment at higher levels than would have been predicted given the fall in the level of output. Labour hoarding. That squares with business managers explaining that they worry about “structural” skill shortages and so are loathe to lose employees who they will need when their markets recover. But it does not really square with surveys of business conditions reporting that firms say they are carrying relatively little spare capacity. We have scratched our heads about this.
This change requires the readiness of Shariah scholars to play a greater role and to interact with others from various disciplines to enrich and enhance ijtihad with new perspectives, against the backdrop of a contemporary  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  landscape. This innovation will only be generated through the openness of minds and a paradigm shift, based on sound understanding of the Shariah objectives. As the vanguard of Islamic finance, it is the responsibility of Shariah scholars to promote best practices in the Shariah fraternity through an inclusive and contemporary ijtihad, in line with the rapidly evolving operating environment. Finally, I pray that the discussions will run smoothly and will achieve the intended objectives. On this note, I end my speech with the words of Imam Ibn Taymiyyah,: “Surely among the main thrusts in a religion is the union of hearts, the unison of views and easing of disputes conducted in a good way.” Wabillahi taufik wal hidayah. Assalamu’alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

These four institutions have submitted on a precautionary basis their recapitalisation plans to the FROB should they not be able to obtain private capital, although this is a possibility they consider unlikely in pursuing their strategies. Two of them, Bankia and Banca Cívica, are taking steps for a future market launch. If the plans proposed come to fruition, in less than 30 days these institutions will be listed, the process envisaged under the new regulations will have concluded, and they will operate with capital higher than the minimum requirement set in the new legislation. Another two banks, Mare Nostrum and Effibank, are also negotiating placing their capital in private hands, and they intend to conclude the operation within the schedule set, placing the proportion necessary to obtain the level of own funds required to meet the new core capital ratio. In both cases, the avenue being explored, without ruling out other alternatives, is the direct placement of capital with wholesale investors. Turning now to the other four savings banks, all of them have submitted their recapitalisation plans, a pre-requisite for applying for aid. The plans are in two parts: a business plan, with projections for profitability, leverage, liquidity and efficiency (among other variables); and a series of specific commitments regarding corporate governance and cost-cutting.
Richard W Fisher: Of moose and men (with no reference to Steinbeck) Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Texas, 12 September 2011. *  *  *  The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you, Pat [Faubion]. Thank you all for inviting me to speak at this National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has long been involved with NABE. Our director of research and my trusted senior policy advisor, Harvey Rosenblum, is a former NABE president (2001–02). Another of my policy advisors, Tom Siems, is a two-time winner of NABE’s Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award. And Ken Rogoff, winner of this year’s Adam Smith Award, is a member of the Dallas Fed’s Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute advisory board. I benefit greatly from the insights of these talented people, as well as those of Mine Yücel and Roberto Coronado, who are also speaking to you at this conference, and one of my mentors, our Dallas Fed board chairman, Herb Kelleher, who entertained you at lunch. Herb may be the only person on the planet who discovered the formula for making a retail business with high fixed costs and intense regulatory oversight not only fly but soar; his insights into how the economy works in practice, as opposed to theory, are invaluable.

The point is that while I feel the most important role for a central banker is to maintain price stability – and I am always on watch, hawk-like, on the inflationary front – I share with equal intensity the concern of my FOMC colleagues about the employment picture and the overall fragility of our economy. I am keen on finding ways to close the income and output gaps depicted in these two slides and restore economic momentum. I find the last employment report and the recent Federal Reserve Bank surveys of activity, including the Dallas Fed’s, to be discouraging in this regard. When people are frightened, they understandably look for a “fix.” Yet, my colleagues and I are professionally beholden to beware of short-term fixes that might contradict, or place in jeopardy, the long-term duty and credibility of the central bank. I am wary of adopting any policy that might have the unintended consequence of becoming a veterinary fix rather than a more salutary repairing of the ability to propagate jobs. It is no secret that I thought the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) ran that risk. I could not support it when it was proposed because I saw no analytically sound justification that its purported benefits would outweigh its likely costs.