samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This concept of “no creditor worse off’’ (NCWO) is a central tenet of resolution regimes for banks. Resolution powers can interfere with property rights and the NCWO protection is needed to constrain use of these powers by the authorities. In the case of a bank, the test is that no creditor should be worse off than if the bank had gone into insolvency. For the reasons set out above, the insolvency counterfactual needs to be modified for CCPs; to assume that in insolvency the pre-agreed order of losses in the rule book would be followed. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  Non default losses  Finally, it is important to emphasise that I have been talking throughout about losses at a CCP following default of a clearing member. This, as I said at the outset, is the main vector of risk for a CCP. But it is not the only one. Non-default losses can arise for a number of reasons, particularly operational failures, including following cyber attack, or losses arising from the investment of the collateral held by CCPs. In such cases, CCPs do not generally have recourse to the resources of their members. Losses need to be absorbed by the capital of the firm and if that is insufficient the CCP faces insolvency like any other firm.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Central bank communication policies and the challenges posed by the financial crisis Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the presentation of the “BZ-Preis für Lokaljournalismus”, Berne, 27 November 2008. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The financial crisis has prompted a rekindling of press interest in central bank operations, following a long period in which monetary authorities scarcely attracted any media attention. Our communication policy has thus been faced with new challenges in recent months. Today, central banks operate with the market, rather than “against the market”, as in the past. Financial market participants are therefore able to foresee central bank actions. Since the early 2000s, our communication policy has focused on transparency, and our experience with this has been positive. Thus, transparency increases the effectiveness of monetary policy. Yet, in the recent financial turbulence, transparency in monetary policy operations also turned out to be a double-edged sword, as communication problems arose. Indeed, there is a risk that operations to provide extraordinary liquidity assistance will impair the reputation of the recipient organisations, and thereby destabilise the market. There are a number of possible solutions with which a balance can be achieved between transparency and stability. BIS Review 147/2008  1
Much more importantly, and after a lot of detailed work across the Bank, the FPC has identified some big differences with the subprime boom. Post-crisis reforms mean there’s less opacity in the associated securities – investors know much more about what they’re buying in a CLO than was apparent, ahead of the crisis, in most Mortgage Backed Securities. The rates of securitisation are in any case much lower (30% versus 80%). Most critically, the banks – and particularly UK banks – have significantly less exposure. Subprime mortgages were often held in special purpose vehicles that were not formally on banks’ balance sheets but heavily financed by them. They still owned the risk. During the crisis UK-owned banks lost huge sums of money – far more than on comparable domestic lending – from their exposure to US mortgages,  12 A large proportion of leveraged loans have been used for M&A and leveraged buyouts, which effectively replaces equity with debt for the corporate sector as a whole. 16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  16  some of it directly, much of it via these constructed securities.13 Their exposure to CLOs is materially lower. Chart 18, reproduced from the most recent Financial Stability Report, shows that UK banks own only a small fraction – around 1% - of the overall stock. All this is important and reassuring. It means that the mechanisms that so amplified the impact of US mortgage defaults are much diminished, particularly for the UK.

Warwick Economics Summit – 4 February 2022 Twenty years later… and twenty years ahead  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France  Press contact: Mark Deen (mark.deen@banque-france.fr)  Page 1 sur 9 Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be with you today, though I would have preferred to actually come to Warwick and your world-renowned University. And I am deeply honoured to offer today, with this speech, the very first of the Persaud Lectures, launched this year by Professor Avinash Persaud – none other than the son of Professor the Honourable Bishdonat Persaud. I borrowed my title from the famous French writer Alexandre Dumas: Twenty Years Later was his sequel to the Three Musketeers. January 1st marked 20 years since the introduction of the euro as cash. And if central banking isn’t quite as much fun as the tales of d’Artagnan and his friends, our young currency has had a few adventures and it is worth drawing some lessons from them. I will then turn to the next twenty years and the two main transformations facing Europe. Before I plunge into this longer view, allow me to say a few words about the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy decision as set out by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Yesterday, in the face of increasing uncertainty on inflation, our key word was « more than ever » optionality.
The main questions in the LFS are about employment status: do you have a job and, if not, are you looking for one? (If your answer to the second question is “yes” you are counted as unemployed, if “no”, economically “inactive”.) As well as these headline numbers,  the UK and the terms of trade have been broadly constant in recent years. Thus the only source of real wage growth, over time, is productivity growth. 4  The inverse relationship between the NAIRU and productivity growth has been noted in many countries (Staiger et al (2001), Slacacek (2005)) nor is real wage resistance the only possible reason for the link. More micro-founded approaches to the labour market, based on the costs of job search, also predict a negative relationship between trend productivity growth and the natural rate of unemployment. In that setting, in which employers trade off the cost of search against the prospective surplus from a new job, lower expected growth in productivity reduces the present value of that surplus and lowers the rate of job creation. The canonical description of this “capitalisation” effect is due to Pissarides (2000). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the ONS’s monthly labour market release publishes standard summary statistics about the duration of unemployment and the reasons for inactivity. But, at least since 1994, the LFS has also included a host of questions about the characteristics of employees and their jobs. These are listed in Table 1.

Christian Noyer: The eurosystem’s single monetary policy - a view from the inside Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at the GIC Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, 18 January 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure and honour for me to address the GIC conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Before entering into the heart of today’s topic, given the date of this conference, it would be difficult for me not to evoke the name and prodigious work of Benjamin Franklin who, to my mind, is the embodiment of the American dream. I could devote the whole of my address to Benjamin Franklin’s work, both because of its scope and the significance that it still has today, but that is not the subject of our conference. I shall therefore confine myself to recalling some of the major events and achievements in the life of this exceptional, intelligent man, endowed with extraordinary intellectual curiosity. If I were to sum up the life of this exceptional man in a few words, I would say, like most people, that he was an autobiographer, an essayist, a pamphleteer, a politician, a librarian, a publisher, an educationalist, a scientist, an inventor, a statesman, and a humorist. It is difficult to believe that one single man could be so multifaceted but Benjamin Franklin was all these things, and sometimes at the same time.
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Overview of the Spanish economy in 2008 Address by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, to the Governing Council of the Bank of Spain on the occasion of the presentation of the Annual Report 2008, Madrid, 16 June 2009. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The year 2008, the subject of the Annual Report I submit today to the Council, saw strains on international financial markets heighten and turn into a global financial crisis which ultimately triggered a widespread loss of confidence and an unprecedented worldwide economic recession. The financial tensions pushed a large number of banks from a broad range of countries to the brink. And they have caused losses in the global financial system which, with all the due caution any estimate calls for, amount to trillions of euro. The crisis affected all financial markets, with some such as the asset-backed securities and interbank deposits markets brought to a grinding halt. The habitual stress indicators surged to all-time highs around October and remain at high levels despite the improvement in recent months. Clearly, the globalisation conducive to the growth of finance in recent years has also been instrumental in the swift and simultaneous spread of tensions, seeing them extend further.

The outlook for the Spanish economy points to declines in GDP over the rest of the year that should lead to a significant fall in 2009, albeit slightly lower than is forecast for other European countries. It is highly likely that the worst of the contraction has already passed, and that the intensity of the restrictive impulses will begin to diminish in the second half of the year as the broad range of measures implemented progressively deploy their effects. As a result, the fall in activity in 2010 is expected to be less pronounced. The course of employment in this scenario, in any event, is a cause for concern; despite the somewhat more positive signals given by some recent indicators, linked in part to seasonal factors, job destruction may run for some time and the unemployment rate may continue further on its rising trend. The imbalances built up during the long expansionary phase, in the form of the inflation differential and the resort to external financing, are being swiftly reabsorbed, providing an unquestionable source of relief in the global outlook described. Yet this rapid correction is occurring on the back of an excessive brake on activity, entailing major costs in terms of job destruction, higher unemployment and the deterioration of the productive fabric.
Financial institutions have been asked to review their customer accounts for tax-illicit funds. One of the practical difficulties faced by financial institutions is how to determine whether a given pool of funds is fully tax compliant, when even a tax lawyer may be hesitant to make a call, unless he has full visibility of the customer’s other transactions beyond the bank. International guidance on this area is still evolving, and the process to become more proficient in detecting tax-illicit monies will understandably be an iterative one. 18 Nonetheless, we have found the quality of the recent tax risk reviews to be satisfactory, and I like to commend you all for the efforts put in. More importantly, this exercise has raised general awareness among financial institutions, which are now better prepared to manage risks arising from the laundering of proceeds from tax crimes. Arising from the review, a handful of customers may have chosen to close their accounts or even have had their accounts terminated – if they chose not to be subject to the heightened scrutiny. Suspicious Transaction Reports have also been filed in a few cases. Overall, the message is clear and consistent – tax-illicit funds are not welcome here. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Partnership with the industry 19 We need to work together to tackle financial crime. At the government level, law enforcement agencies meet regularly with the financial and non-financial sector supervisors to coordinate policy, so that we effectively deter illicit funds as a country.

Still other banks have greatly increased their transaction processing, custody or asset management businesses, in the pursuit of fee income. Looking forward to the next century, I believe we will see major strides in the area that I suggest we call “e-finance”. More banks will venture into the relatively new world of on-line PC banking or will expand electronic bill presentment and paying services. Banks will be motivated to overcome obstacles such as systems incompatibility and consumer privacy concerns, to achieve greater operating efficiencies and to protect their valuable payments franchise. Going forward, on-line purchases and sales of securities by individuals also will continue to increase, producing a growing source of commissions for financial institutions. For most banks, these developments will mean a further increase in the diversity and complexity of risks to which they are exposed, including, but not limited to, credit, market and operational risks. The challenge for these banks will be to develop risk management systems that are rigorous and comprehensive, yet flexible enough to address the newer risks they take on as they expand into less familiar product areas. Today, I would like to highlight these risks and focus on how important it is for banks to integrate their risk management and capital planning processes. Also, I would like to focus on how the changing nature of banking is challenging supervisors to rethink their approach to capital regulation and supervision.
This is a lot in an historical perspective. Although some mortgage rates have declined slightly following the repo rate cuts, the gap remains. Mortgage rates are to a great extent governed by the banks' possibilities to borrow abroad. The effect of this is that interest costs for households with mortgages fall less than one might have expected. As a result of the financial crisis, the stimulating effect of a repo rate cut is thus less than it would have been otherwise. I would like to emphasise that there is unusually great uncertainty surrounding the assessments and forecasts at present and that it is thus more difficult to judge the effects of our monetary policy. The outcome data and indicators the Riksbank has received since the  6  BIS Review 149/2008  monetary policy meeting in September clearly pointed to a severe deterioration in economic activity, both in Sweden and abroad. Compared with the assessment made in September, the Riksbank revised down its forecast for international growth by almost one percentage point. Growth in 2009 was assumed at the monetary policy meeting held on 22 October to be close to zero in the United States, the euro area and Sweden. There are also signs that the economies in Asia are slowing down. In China, growth has fallen during the first half of the year and is expected to continue to fall. Economic activity in Japan has also slowed down and the most recent GDP figures show that the economy is now in a recession.

Durmuş Yılmaz: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the Inflation Report, Ankara, 30 April 2009. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Welcome to the press conference for the presentation of the April 2009 Inflation Report, one of the most important communication tools of the inflation-targeting regime. The report typically elaborates global and domestic macroeconomic developments and presents the medium-term inflation forecasts revised in line with the previous quarter developments. It also presents six boxes examining the recent monetary policy decisions and the relevant economic developments. Now, I would like to give you a short summary of our evaluations and the Central Bank’s revised inflation forecasts in the Inflation Report, which will be posted on the CBT website today. 1. Inflation developments  Distinguished Members of the Press, The world economy has been undergoing a period dominated by dynamics quite unlike to those of previous years. With the loss of confidence resulting from the on-going financial crisis, the global economy entered a significant contraction trend after a long period of time. Impacts of the crisis on real economic activity deepened in the first quarter of 2009. Thus, inflationary pressures, which were perceived as a major concern until the last quarter of 2008, were overtaken by fears of deflation in developed countries in the first quarter of 2009.
It can be imagined that inflation (the red curve) must lie within the interval marked by the broken blue lines in Figure 3 if inflation expectations are not to drift away. This interval thus depends on the agents’ expectations and is not something that can be observed. If inflation lies below the interval, expectations will fall, sooner or later, and will pull actual inflation down too, as illustrated in Figure 4. If the central banks now have fewer possibilities to bring inflation back to the target as quickly as before, they must find ways to “extend” the interval, as in Figure 5. 12  See, for example, Blanchard et al. (2010), Ball (2014) and Krugman (2014). In the review of the monetary policy framework which the Bank of Canada publishes every five years, for example, an increase in the target is one of the areas to be examined – see Côté (2014) and Kryvtsov and Mendes (2015). 13  For arguments against raising the inflation target, see, for example, Yellen (2015), footnote 14. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  This will probably be a fairly serious challenge. It will not just be a matter of trying to convince economic agents that monetary policy needs to be more “flexible”.

A concern from a financial stability standpoint is that heavy asset sales necessary in times of stress to meet investor redemptions could disrupt systemically important asset markets, particularly where a fund (or funds) has a concentrated market position. There have, so far, been few historical examples of financial instability caused by funds experiencing distress. But we should be careful about drawing too much comfort from this. The scale of funds and the market environment are different now. For example, funds’ investments in emerging market assets and high-yield bonds have quadrupled over the past five years. It is unclear what volume of redemptions could be met quickly without causing disorder in these markets. A year ago, the so called “taper tantrum” was a pointer to what could happen. And such risks may have become greater due to changes in the market. Concerns have been raised by some in the industry that reforms to bank capital and liquidity regulation could, taken together, have potentially serious consequences for market liquidity. The regulatory community takes such concerns seriously and is looking closely at them. But we should not set as an objective a return to pre-crisis liquidity conditions. Liquidity risk premia were likely too low before the crisis because liquidity risk was under-priced. And market-makers were permitted to fund their inventory with dangerously high levels of leverage, funded at very short maturities and, needless to say, the risk-weights attached to this sort of activity were very low.
The prices of other goods and services, on the other hand, have been posting quite modest growth rates. Therefore, the inflation expectations of entrepreneurs and consumers have remained close to the historical average. If the price hike of commodities stops, the increase in the euro area’s prices could remain below 2% already next year. However, looking at the data from another angle, we can find proof to arguments which insist that the current euro-area interest rate level is not suitable for guaranteeing the low inflation rate that corresponds to the price stability goal. Although the general public focuses on the debt crisis of certain European countries, the developments of the economy itself have, on the whole, exceeded expectations. Economic growth has remained above average and the utilisation of production capacity no longer resembles a crisis situation. Though unemployment is still high, it is decreasing and the indicators of the industrial and service sectors are posting quite high results from the historical perspective. If we add here the fact that global price rise pressures have been annoyingly enduring and do not show any signs of abatement, the risk of a persistently higher inflation rate in the euro area has increased. Therefore, at the press conference after the most recent meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank it was pointed out that, to withstand this threat, the Eurosystem might increase the price of money in the markets earlier than expected, maybe already in April.

However, with the credit reference bureau now operational, to which I believe most of these institutions subscribe and access credit information on their borrowers, it is expected that the levels of delinquencies that the sector used to suffer through the non-repayment of loans by customers would decline. I therefore, implore all microfinance institutions to comply with the Bank of Zambia Directive of December 2008 regarding the use of the credit reference system and submission of credit data. I must emphasise that regulatory action will be taken against defaulting institutions. As I conclude, allow me to further urge microfinance and other financial institutions to continue revising their interest rates and charges in tandem with the movements in key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation. I am conscious to the fact that all microfinance institutions are in business and are therefore expected to make profits. However, making super profits at the expense of the poor and vulnerable is regressive to economic development. There is a need to make financial services more affordable to the majority of our people as well as small enterprises in order to expand their operations, employ more people, and thereby provide an impetus to significantly reduce poverty levels in the country. Let me, once again, extend my gratitude to MicroFinance Transparency and the Association of Microfinance Institutions of Zambia for inviting me to officiate at this launch of the Transparent Pricing Initiative in Zambia. It is now my honour and privilege to declare the workshop on Transparent Pricing officially opened.