samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Or as Voltaire is supposed to have said "While history may never repeat itself – man always does!”  4  BIS Review 30/2008  Financial crises arise as a result of imbalances in the balance sheet So why do financial crises arise? The root of most financial crises can quite simply be found in the imbalance between assets and financing. The simplest way to illustrate this is to look at a stylised bank’s balance sheet. On the asset side there is lending to companies and households. These are assets that cannot be realised quickly without a substantial discount. In other words, they are illiquid. The bank’s financing on the other hand largely consists of deposits from the general public and short-term borrowing on the interbank and securities markets. Their financing is thus very liquid. In normal circumstances this is not a problem, as we do not expect all depositors and other lenders to withdraw their money or their financing at the same time. But at the same time this liquidity transformation makes the bank sensitive to its financiers' confidence in its ability to meet its obligations. Suspicions that the bank has financial problems could very quickly lead to a bank run. There have been many bank runs in the past. Stockholms Banco, which was founded by Johan Palmstruch in 1656, was hit by a bank run in the 1660s when the depositors lost confidence in the notes issued by the bank.

In addition to this are the owners’ interest in their legal rights and not least society’s interest in the administration of justice functioning in the field of economic crime. 8  BIS Review 30/2008  All of these interests, and probably more, are entirely legitimate and must of course be taken care of in the legislation. But they must be classified according to their relative significance to society. Otherwise it will not be possible to distribute the roles between the different authorities in the best way when managing problem institutions. There is also a risk of wasting valuable time on managing conflicts between different interested parties instead of managing the institution’s problems. In other words, it is necessary to have a bird’s eye view when drawing up regulations. The regulations must be formulated to give the state the right tools I know that the Ministry of Finance is currently working hard on a proposal for public administration of banks in distress. The design of the deposit guarantee and Finansinspektionen’s powers of authority are also being reviewed. We eagerly await these proposals. Even if the work is carried out on parallel tracks, it is important that the final result is coherent. Otherwise it could be difficult to manage a future crisis in the financial system. It is also important that the proposals are not toothless. Running a bank is not a right, rather it entails considerable responsibility towards both society as a whole and the customers who have entrusted their savings to the bank.
8  BIS Review 100/2008  Figure 10: Output Gap 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 08Q1  07Q3  07Q1  06Q3  06Q1  05Q3  05Q1  04Q3  04Q1  03Q3  03Q1  02Q3  02Q1  01Q3  01Q1  00Q3  00Q1  -10  Source: CBT. Dear Guests, After the significant weakening of the Turkish lira in the first four months of 2008 (Figure 11), exchange rates have reversed direction in the past two months, easing to some extent potential pressures on tradable inflation resulting from the exchange rate pass-through. In the April Inflation Report and the Open Letter, the first round impact of the recent depreciation was estimated to be close to 2-percentage points for the end-2008 headline inflation. The recent rebound in currency has led to a downward revision in the estimated pass-through. We now anticipate a cumulative exchange pass-through of around 1.2 percent points for 2008, most of which has already been materialized between March-May period. Figure 11: Risk Premium and Nominal Exchange Rates 450  2 YTL/Currency Basket (0.5 Euro+0.5 US Dollar)  1,9  400  EMBI+Turkey (right axis)  350  1,8  300  1,7  250  1,6  200  1,5  150  07.08  05.08  03.08  01.08  11.07  09.07  07.07  0 05.07  1,2 03.07  50 01.07  100  1,3 11.06  1,4  Source: CBT.

Many of the issues we face are not unique to any one of us, but rather are shared across the region and the globe. Recent events, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine, have only underscored the importance of active dialogue and transparency among central banks. Beyond the global economic impact of these events, it’s important to emphasize that the pandemic is first and foremost a public health crisis, and that the Russian invasion is inflicting tremendous hardship and suffering on the Ukrainian people. In terms of economic impacts, all of us in the Americas were affected by lockdowns and shutdowns at the start of the pandemic. All of us have faced supply-chain bottlenecks and imbalances, as people around the world shifted their spending habits—buying more goods and spending less on services. And many of us are now confronting a sharp rise in inflation, especially for food and energy, which is hardest on our most vulnerable populations. Of course, each country is facing its own set of circumstances, and each has its own domestic mandates. But it’s important to remember that the policies we implement can affect our neighbors, just as developments that take place outside our borders can impact our ability to achieve our domestic goals. The actions we take can also affect the flow of capital across countries. As central bankers, it is vitally important that we clearly communicate our policy strategies and reasoning for our actions as we carry out our mandates.
Meksika Polonya G.Afrika G.Kore Y.Zelanda Şili Macaristan Türkiye  1207  1.9  0.04  0907  2  900  0607  TL/Kur Sepeti (0,5 Euro+0,5 ABD Doları)  0308  2.1  Source: Bloomberg and CBRT. On the other hand, the currencies of emerging markets that implemented policy rate cuts of larger amounts also performed better in the second quarter of the year, as was the case during the entire process of the crisis. This owes its existence to the fact that changes in the risk premia of countries during the crisis are determinants of not only exchange rate performance but also monetary policy decisions of the said countries. As of the second quarter of the year, policy rate reductions have become partially influential on domestic credit markets. The marked decline in interest rates on loans extended to firms is particularly striking (Figure 18). This has reduced the cost of credits of firms with faltering cash flow, which they utilize to restructure their debts. Thereby, the deterioration in the  BIS Review 103/2009  11  financial structures of such firms was limited and a permanent damage to the production capacity of the economy was averted. Against the rapid decline in interest rates on loans extended to the corporate sector, fixed and long term loan interest rates still remain high. As a matter of fact, term premia in consumer loans are at relatively high levels and particularly the fall in interest rates on long term loans remains relatively limited (Figure 19).

Distinguished members of the Press and Esteemed Guests, Against this background, assuming that there is further easing in policy rates in the near term followed by no change until the end of 2010, medium-term forecasts suggest that, with 70 percent probability, inflation will be between 4.9 and 6.9 percent with a mid-point of 5.9 percent at the end of 2009, and between 3.7 and 6.9 percent with a mid-point of 5.3 percent at the end of 2010. Furthermore, inflation is expected to come down to 4.9 percent by the end of 2011 and to 4.8 percent by mid-2012 (Figure 26). Figure 26: Inflation and Output Gap Forecasts* (Percent)  Forecast Aralığı* Range * Tahmin  OutputAçığı Gap Çıktı  Band for 2009 2Uncertainty 009 için Belirsizlik Aralığı  Yıl SonuInflation Enflasyon Hedefleri Targets End-year  13 11  KontrolRange Ufku Control  9 7 Yüzde  5 %  3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -9 1  2  3 2009  4  1  2  3  4  2010  1  2 2011  3  4  1  2  2012  * Indicates a 70-percent confidence interval for the forecast. Revised forecasts indicate that even if policy rates are kept at low levels for an extended period, aggregate demand conditions will continue to underpin the disinflation process over the next two years. Forecasts also indicate that significant base effects may lead to some inflation volatility in the short term.
Growth in real wages is markedly higher than underlying growth in productivity. This is why unemployment is rising. Businesses must adjust their workforces to maintain profitability, or close down or relocate production. The inflation target is the vehicle for monetary policy’s contribution to stabilising output and employment. In spite of high wage growth, the strong krone has kept inflation at a low level. Global stagnation has changed the domestic inflation outlook in recent months. The tight monetary stance is reflected in the strong krone. A gradual easing of monetary policy would thus seem appropriate. As long as inflation remains low and stable, any substantial deviations in the krone exchange rate over time will have an impact on business and industry. As a result, the krone exchange rate will tend to return towards its long-term mean. The interest rate differential between Norway and other countries has resulted in a strong krone. The wide interest rate differential is due to the historically low level of interest rates abroad. If the world economy experiences prolonged stagnation and the krone remains firm, a markedly lower interest rate will lead to a weakening of the krone and mitigate the effects for Norway. Any fiscal slippage will contribute to maintaining a strong krone.

The structure and condition of the financial system at any given time is determined by historical factors, economic and market conditions, the regulatory environment, technology, and culture and ethics. The Central Bank and the regulatory environment are also part of the financial system. The public sector can affect developments in the financial system through the regulatory framework, through transactions with the system – not least through the Central Bank – and by affecting culture and ethics. At present, the system is shaped by the financial crisis and the responses to it, including the capital controls. It is a relatively homogeneous system dominated by three domestic-oriented banks with similar business models and risk profiles. The capital controls, implementation of international regulations, and more stringent Icelandic regulations on foreign exchange risk all affect the banks. The capital controls will be lifted, but much of the regulatory environment will remain. Risk in the financial system has diminished markedly in recent years as resilience has grown, which can be seen in capital adequacy and funding; furthermore, liquidity relative to the scope of operations is much greater than before the crisis. The three largest commercial banks’ combined capital amounted to 669 b.kr. at the end of 2015. The banks’ equity ratios have risen by nearly a third since 2010, from 21% to 28%. In real terms, their equity has increased by 180 b.kr. over this period. Furthermore, the banks’ foreign exchange imbalances have been reduced, and the regulatory framework prevents excessive risk-taking in foreign currencies.
Pascual, U., Balvanera, P., Christie, M., Baptiste, B., González-Jiménez, D., Anderson, C.B., Athayde, S., Barton, D.N., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Jacobs, S., Kelemen, E., Kumar, R., Lazos, E., Martin, A., Mwampamba, T.H., Nakangu, B., O'Farrell, P., Raymond, C.M., Subramanian, S.M., Termansen, M., Van Noordwijk, M., and Vatn, A. (eds.). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. xxvi I note here that Professor Dasgupta referred to green swans, which is a concept that was developed by researchers at the Banque de France among others. See: Bolton, P., Després, M., Pereira da Silva, L. A., Samama, F., & Svartzman, R. (2020). “Green Swans”: central banks in the age of climate-related risks. Banque de France Bulletin, 229(8). https://publications.banquefrance.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/820154_bdf229- 8_green_swans_vfinale.pd xxvii Banque de France (2022). Rapport investissement responsable 2021. xxviii Boissinot, J., Goulard, S., Le Calvar, J., Salin, M., Svartzman, R., and Weber, P.-F. (2022). “Aligning financial and monetary policies with the concept of double materiality: rationales, proposals and challenges”. INSPIRE Central Banking Toolbox – Policy Briefing no. 5, LSE Research Online Documents on Economics. 13

The second challenge is that economic modeling requires reliable and regular data. This entails significant financial and human resources that are sorely lacking in statistical institutes in several countries. In this respect, I think that central banks, owing to their autonomy, can play an important role in research development and have a ripple effect on its ecosystem. This is exactly what we are trying to do in Bank Al-Maghrib. 4  In fact, we have always put research and human capacity building at the core of our strategic plans. Thus, alongside the various operational entities, we have set up since 2007 a division dedicated to research, whose task is to reflect on all strategic matters and issues related to the Bank's missions. Several cooperation programs were developed with the national and international academia, as well as with many central banks around the world. More particularly, we have launched the "fellow researcher" program which allowed the Bank’s executives to collaborate with experts from central banks of other countries such as the United States, Canada and Poland, and I hope we will soon be able to extend this cooperation to African researchers. In addition to our institutional publications, a series of working papers were drawn by the Bank staff, and are gradually becoming a reference for research in various areas directly or indirectly related to our missions. Moreover, the Bank organizes a series of timely or regular scientific meetings, such as the International Days of Macroeconomics and Finance, which we hold each year.
As trade collapsed towards the end of 2008 and into the first few months of this year, Asia’s export-reliant economies were hard-hit. Against this external backdrop, the Singapore economy contracted sharply, as our manufacturing, transport, logistics and wholesale trade industries were closely tied to global and regional trade flows. By the first quarter this year, the economy had posted an output loss of around 10% from its peak a year ago, the steepest decline in its history. The unprecedented global financial crisis has weighed heavily on financial markets worldwide, leading to severe declines in valuation across many asset classes amidst heightened market volatility. MAS’ investments were negatively affected by the crisis. As at the close of the financial year on 31 March 2009, MAS recorded a net loss of $ billion, about 3.5% of MAS’ average total assets. This compares with profits of $ billion in the previous year and $ billion in FY06. This severe crisis has therefore pared back about 80% of the gains in the preceding two years. The extent of loss has been mitigated as we raised the liquidity profile of our portfolio in the early part of 2008, in the face of greater uncertainties. With the broad based upturn in financial markets after the close of the financial year, the valuation of MAS’ foreign assets has improved and more than half of the losses have been recovered. Despite the severe global conditions, Singapore’s financial system has, by and large, weathered the crisis well.

To further enhance this facility, with immediate effect: a)  3  We will accept AAA-rated $ debt securities issued by sovereigns, supranationals and sovereign-backed corporates as collateral in the Standing Facility in addition to SGS. Given this change, we will also permit banks to treat these securities as Tier 2  Conducted US-based recruitment firm Hudson. BIS Review 91/2009  3  liquid assets, with the same zero risk weighting as SGS. This will help banks to better manage their risks and liquidity profiles. b)  We will also enter into cross-border collateral arrangements with other central banks to accept well-rated foreign currencies and government debt securities as collateral in the Standing Facility. Last month, I signed an MOU with the Governor of De Nederlandsche Bank N.V., the Dutch Central Bank. Discussions are ongoing with several other central banks. Globally, government bond issuance is rising while banks’ balance sheets which are typically used to underwrite these issuances are shrinking. We have seen in some jurisdictions several instances of poor or even failed auctions of government bonds due to unexpectedly weak sentiment or concerns about ballooning government debt and fiscal deficits. Singapore is different. The Government does not issue bonds to finance its budget deficit. Investors understand that the Government issues SGS for the sole purpose of building a risk-free yield curve for the corporate sector to price its debt. But the SGS market can be affected by contagion of weak sentiment spilling over from other markets.
But I must stress the urgency here: we don’t have much time left, one or two years. Everybody is talking about a CBDC; but first, and much earlier, we need to regulate crypto-assets, and then implement EPI. The third and final action: be ready to launch a general purpose CBDC, which means for the public and for the financial sector, to reassert the anchoring role of central bank money in case of need. Let me insist on the dual purpose: public attention is naturally focused on a retail digital currency, for individuals and firms. But a “wholesale” or “interbank” form is also important, particularly as the use cases are already even more obvious, and because this interbank money will be vital for cross-border transactions. The next investigation phase and technological prototypes selected by the Eurosystem will, in my view, need to cover both these functions, separately or together. The results of the ECB’s public consultation, published mid-April, show that European citizens regard two aspects as particularly important: privacy and security. Therefore, the retail CBDC would be made available to citizens as an easy-to-use, secure and accessible payment instrument, that protects user privacy and can be used for all types of payment. How would it be distributed? We want to develop a model where CBDC is distributed by intermediaries, to allow private players, first and foremost the banking sector, to keep a key role. Let me be clear on this: it is not the Banque de France’s or any Central Bank’s role to open bank accounts!

1/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Two years later, we've seen great progress toward a recovery. The most recent data show that well over two-thirds of New York City's job losses have been reversed. Still, areas of the New York City economy, especially those dependent on visitors and office workers, continue to struggle and are lagging the nation in recovery. Despite the challenges, there is palpable energy and momentum propelling us into the future. Now that our focus is on the recovery, we must create an equitable future for all residents of this city. We must make sure that all of the people who live, work, or own a business here have a chance to succeed. It is essential that we build a stronger foundation so that everyone can fulfill their economic potential, both here in New York and around the nation. That's why it's critical that we prioritize tackling some of the city's biggest problems, including poverty and inequality, and issues in areas such as infrastructure and transportation. These issues are not new; they existed long before the pandemic. And there is no simple or single solution to solve them. But as we plan for a better future, we must understand how New York's challenges have evolved since March 2020 and how they are playing out in the current environment. With that knowledge and awareness in mind, we can chart the path forward. The New York Fed's Role This brings me to our conference today.
The sources of risks related to the crisis are being closely monitored, but the French banking system, like any other, cannot be fully protected against new negative developments stemming from the crisis. In today’s globalised financial markets, the contagion of financial turmoil can spread through many channels. Therefore, extreme vigilance is called for. For example, let me say a few words about hedge fund risks, since an increase in counterparty risk exposure to these unregulated entities may still occur, and it could be combined with “commodities” risk. In this respect, I would like to stress that it is critical for banks to ensure that their hedge fund exposures are adequately collateralised at all times. I am aware that hedge funds are attractive customers that no credit institution can afford to ignore today, and that prime brokerage activities are a path to growth for many of our institutions. Similarly, no bank can afford to ignore the growth of the financial markets linked to commodities and energy. However, it must not be forgotten that hedge funds are also very active in these highly volatile markets. It is therefore critical to avoid risk concentration and a combination of vulnerabilities stemming from these two rapidly growing sectors. Even though we have not taken a second-round shock to the real economy stemming from the financial crisis as our central scenario for the euro area, a high degree of uncertainty is still the distinguishing characteristic of the banking business in 2008.

The first one, which we may call the pan-European approach, has tended to produce a lot of numbers on aggregates and averages in the financial stability analysis. No country wants to stick out in the assessment; they hide behind these broad numbers. But you cannot identify weaknesses and vulnerabilities through averages. “On average”, banks’ credit portfolios and capital ratios may be robust but an FSAP should look for the outliers – the ones which will break first. Whichever approach you select, you would need to include a detailed analysis of those major financial groups which cross the borders between the European countries and sometimes also operate outside the region. These groups are in many cases so large that they could influence countries both positively and negatively depending on developments. Let me give you a recent example from my own country: Icelandic investors have bought large stakes in Swedish financial firms. The investments are rather small from the Swedish point-of-view but significant for their parents in Iceland. Recently, there has been volatility in the Icelandic financial and currency markets. Luckily, the investments in Sweden are doing very well and have rather contributed to strengthening the Icelandic financial system. But in another situation the reverse could have been true – had the Icelanders made these investments during the Swedish banking crisis in the 1990s the Swedish holdings would have contributed to weakening the Icelandic economy.