samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Indeed, by urging governments to aim for a fiscal position close to balance or in surplus in the medium term, the Pact enables them to let fiscal deficits increase during recessions without exceeding  5  BIS Review 81/1999  the 3% reference value. In short, it allows them to create a fiscal buffer during normal economic periods that can be drawn on, if an asymmetric shock occurs. í  The third condition is that all European countries must undertake structural reforms. Continental Europe is experiencing high levels of unemployment, despite the fact that the jobless rate has been declining slightly in most of its economics. According to the IMF, around 80% of this unemployment is structural, that is, generated by our burdensome rules and regulations. The Monetary Policy Council of the Banque de France agrees with this analysis. Just recently, some external observers were still blaming Europe for its focus on the euro, instead of what they considered the more urgent task, namely the implementation of structural reforms necessary for more dynamic job creation. These critics were wrong regarding the untimeliness of the euro, but their assessment of the problems of the European economy is obviously correct. The euro will be a stimulus to structural reforms. Most importantly, the single currency is decisively contributing to achieve the single market in the three markets of goods, services and capital within the euro zone.

The meeting of the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors (held in London, 21 February 1998) called for a “profound and broad-ranging debate on the lessons of events in Asia and their implications for strengthening the international monetary system, building on the reforms initiated at Halifax”. The G7 identified five main areas where progress had to be made. This is not the place to take stock of the proposals that have been put forward. Let me just air a few remarks on certain measures, which I consider as particularly important. I would like to discuss the proposals addressing imbalances and structural distortions in the crisis countries before considering those concerning the international financial markets and institutions issues. Efforts to strengthen emerging countries financial systems making them more resilient to external shocks The main effort contributing to the strengthening of emerging market economies’ banking systems is the adoption of the set of Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision which have been widely endorsed by emerging countries authorities. The IMF in coordination with the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is designing indicators to assess progress in implementation by emerging countries. The adoption of the implementation of the Core Principles as a criterion giving access to the newly created Contingent Credit Line is a strong incentive for members to adopt them effectively. The design of Deposit Insurance Schemes is another important measure contributing to reduce or eliminate implicit government guarantees limiting moral hazard on the lenders as well as on the borrowers side.
Let me summarise the three main points: •  The Eurosystem is exploring synergies between TARGET2 and T2S, with the ultimate goal of achieving a consolidated Eurosystem market infrastructure. •  We are assessing new service opportunities arising from bringing the two infrastructures closer together. In particular, we are considering enhancements to the TARGET2 services in the field of instant payments. •  The Eurosystem will increase harmonisation of its own collateralisation techniques and procedures. We will also consider the business case for a common Eurosystem collateral management system. As part of this morning’s panel, we will delve a little deeper into this vision and will discuss some of the challenges we can expect the future to bring. I would like to welcome the panel members and Marc Bayle who will moderate this session. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Poland and Hungary stand at around 67 percent (both posting values of no more than 45 percent in 2000), Czechia at 86 percent (from 61 percent in 2000) and Bulgaria at 47 percent (against 24 percent in 2000). As a matter of fact, Romania boasts the fastest growth rate in the group of peer countries with similar trends. Can we, therefore, say that this is proof of a successful catching-up in real terms? Furthermore, can we claim that having a flexible policy framework (including a managed floating exchange rate) helped us in this respect? Allow me to assert that more time is needed in order for these questions to be appropriately answered. However, a general remark can be made: the EU and NATO anchors helped us all make progress as concerns real convergence. The second lesson derives from the answer to the following question: did the strategic decisions on the exchange rate regime and monetary policy framework matter? It is known that some countries in the region (Romania, Poland, Czechia, Hungary) opted for flexible exchange rate arrangements and adopted inflation targeting, while others (Bulgaria and the Baltic states) resorted to a fixed exchange rate regime under a currency board. At first sight, it seems that the latter group of countries are better prepared in terms of euro adoption (the Baltic states have already taken this step but they, being much smaller and more open economies, are a special case), given the fiscal discipline pursued and the nominal convergence stage in those economies.
The effects of the high demand for certain commodities from rapidly-growing economies are something that central banks around the world must manage in the future. Another example is the imbalances in the global economy. Access to credit was too high for a long time in many countries and contributed to an unsustainable development. The imbalances that were built up are being corrected, but it is still uncertain how long the adjustment will take. What we see now is a world less stable than we have been seeing in recent years. Sweden is a small open economy and the Riksbank conducts an independent monetary policy. We have an inflation target which we endeavour to attain. An inflation target becomes an even more important anchor for monetary policy in a situation like the present one. If financial imbalances and large fluctuations in commodity prices create global shocks over a long period of time, the inflation target can in itself have a calming effect on our own economy. It therefore feels particularly important to maintain our focus on the inflation target right now. The interest rate decision In connection with the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 3 September, we saw signs that inflation is falling in various parts of the world. But this fall in inflation is from a very high level and as yet no clear decline is visible in the statistics. Swedish inflation is still at its highest level since the mid-1990s. At the same time, growth has been weaker than anticipated.

It has revealed the fallout from the failure of large financial institutions. It has revealed the fragility of the financial system to features and trends that cut across institutions, markets and infrastructures. And it has illustrated the amplitude of the consequences of the adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the real economy. All these three elements are key features of systemic risk: first, contagion; second, the buildup of financial imbalances and unsustainable trends within and across the financial system; and third, the close links with the real economy and the potential for strong feedback effects. The crisis has revealed the fundamental importance of systemic risk. Of the three elements I have mentioned, contagion and the link to the real economy are the least novel in the current episode. The most unexpected element has been the rigour with which systemic risk has been triggered by the collective behaviour of financial institutions and the ways in which they interact in financial markets. The main new avenue to explore is therefore to improve our understanding of interconnectedness in the financial system, both via the direct links between financial institutions and the indirect ones created in financial markets. Everybody now sees that major risks can emerge from within the financial system itself. It was not the real economy that threw the financial system into disarray, but the reverse. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Endogenous risks – risks that emerge from within the financial sector – can have many causes.
To date, though, we do not yet observe trading in these instruments in the secondary market. 15 Importantly, we have succeeded in increasing the stock of outstanding reserve-absorbing operations without depressing interbank activity. As Slide 14 shows, trading volume in the interbank money market even increased temporarily following the rate hike. It has remained solid since then, ensuring a robust calculation basis for SARON. The stock of outstanding repo transactions in the overnight segment is currently close to 10 billion Swiss francs, which is near the year-to-date average in this market segment. The pass-through of our September rate hike has also progressed well in other money market segments. For instance, as we show in Slide 15, overnight rates in the unsecured money market also shifted up significantly during the first business day on which the positive policy rate went into effect. We have also seen a good pass-through to SARON-based swap rates, as the 1-week rate, the green line on the slide, illustrates. Naturally, as swap rates incorporate  15  Some banks, however, do seem to be interested in secondary market trading, as they have begun placing quotes for SNB Bills. Page 8/10  expectations of future overnight interest rates, the 1-week swap rate had already increased before the monetary policy assessment in September. On the slide, we also show the 1-week implied rate from USDCHF FX swaps. This rate is generally somewhat lower than the other Swiss franc money market rates.

This has resulted in the intensification of our supervision on areas or businesses that are more prone to ML/TF risks, or where controls have been found to be lacking from past inspections. 17. We have organised and will organise more industry engagements to share supervisory findings on common lapses and good practices at the end of each series of inspections. This is intended to help level up controls over time. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  18. Our inspections go beyond rules-based compliance. We focus on whether financial institutions demonstrate a good understanding of risks, and a good risk culture within the organisations. We much prefer that FIs adopt a proactive approach in meeting their regulatory obligations than a passive rule-based attitude. Let me elaborate on this. 19. One area relates to governance. You are all familiar with the common thinking of having three lines of defence. Recently, there are suggestions to augment this with a “four lines of defence” model for better governance in financial institutions. The first line involves frontline and management controls within business units; then compliance and risk management functions as the second line; and the audit function as the third line. A newer fourth line involves interactions of the FI with its external auditors and regulators. An FI’s senior management and board should monitor and be satisfied that these lines are effective. Senior managers should never “look the other way” on suspicious transactions, even if they involve major clients who are significant revenue sources.
In 2001, close to 30 000 persons resident in Sweden were employed in Norway for all or part of the year. Swedes who have registered as residents in Norway come in addition. An increased supply of labour from new EU member states to Norwegian enterprises will result in a higher-than-normal increase in potential output for a period. Many of the foreign workers work for a shorter period in Norway without being employed in a Norwegian enterprise. Examples include foreign contractors and self-employed in the construction industry who carry out various building projects in Norway, as well as others who carry out other types of projects. Aker Kværner, for example, has contracted 300 consultants based in India to work on the Ormen Lange project in northwest Norway. An increase in the use of these short-term contracts will appear as an increase in Norway’s service imports, and increases the supply of goods and services without drawing on domestic resources. The latest Directorate of Labour figures show that seasonally adjusted unemployment was 3.4 per cent in October. Statistics Norway’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), however, presents a somewhat weaker picture of unemployment. Registered unemployment is on the decline in all regions. The fall in unemployment has been relatively moderate in Region Inland, although this is partly because the level of unemployment was already low. As I mentioned earlier, the reports from Norges Bank’s regional network provide important information for Norges Bank’s analysis of the Norwegian economy.

The output gap is a measure that expresses our assessment of total capacity utilisation in the economy. The output gap is defined as the percentage difference between actual output and potential output. Potential output indicates the level of output that is consistent with price and cost stability. The estimate for the output gap is uncertain, partly because the level of potential output is unobservable and must be estimated. Since official statistics on overall activity in the economy are not available immediately and are subsequently revised, the level of actual output will be uncertain. Our overall assessment is that capacity utilisation has picked up over the past two years and is now slightly higher than normal. In our estimation of the output gap, the result of technical calculations is compared with other sources of information about capacity utilisation in the economy. Information from Norges Bank’s regional network may indicate that overall mainland capacity utilisation is close to a normal level. However, there are signs of bottlenecks in production in some sectors of the economy. For example, capacity utilisation in the construction sector is very high, particularly in the southwest  BIS Review 79/2005  1  region of the country. There are signs of some skills shortages in the construction industry, in manufacturing and in some service industries. Even though growth in the Norwegian economy has been high for a long period, substantial labour shortages have not yet emerged in the economy as a whole.
But, I caution you, this is only the first step in your careers as Accountants. Remember, “it is not what you learned, but how you use what you learned, that counts”. I came across a definition of an Accountant the other day. It said, “an accountant is someone who solves a problem that you did not know you had, in a way that you don’t understand”! BIS Review 49/2010  1  I hope that tonight’s Graduates do not end up being one of these Accountants, who creates a problem first and then pretends to solve it. And, worse still, they end up charging the client for something that was not there in the first place! It’s almost like being a lawyer! The recent global financial crisis started from a liquidity shortfall in the United States. This liquidity shortfall resulted from many loans (especially for housing) going into default, and there were insufficient assets to cover these loans. As a result, many large banks and financial institutions went bankrupt. And, if it were not for the quick and substantial intervention by some major Governments and Central Banks, the global economy would have collapsed. Among others, the Accountants have been blamed for the “financial crisis”, as a result of their “creative accounting” techniques, which contributed to inflating the values of the assets which were used as collateral for the many risky loans that were issued.

In this environment, the foundations for the sustainability for Islamic finance as a competitive form of financial intermediation will need to continue to be strengthened. Efforts are therefore being focussed on the further development of Islamic financial markets, the financial infrastructure, research and development to support innovation, and enhancing the legal, regulatory and supervisory framework. In addition, the adoption of the relevant advances in technology and the development of human capital are also key to support the development of Islamic finance. The ongoing efforts in these areas are aimed towards enhancing further the resilience of Islamic finance which would in turn enhance its potential to contribute towards global financial stability and the prospects for global growth. Indeed, the topic of the INCEIF's Public Lecture today, “Paradigm Change in Shaping the Future of Islamic Finance” is timely for us to deliberate and reflect on the issues confronting Islamic finance moving forward. We are indeed honoured today to have Dr Abbas Mirakhor. Dr Abbas joins INCEIF following a long and distinguished career as an economist and academician with considerable contribution in the field of Islamic economics, finance and banking. Dr Abbas started his academic career in 1968 with University of Alabama, in the United States of America as a Professor of Economics and later at the Florida Institute of Technology. In 1984, he joined the IMF in Washington DC as an economist before serving as the organisation's Executive Director and Dean of its Executive Board. He completed his term at the IMF in 2008.
A distinct message that we intend to remain outside the euro area for the foreseeable future would probably weaken our influence in the European Union still more. Our partners in Europe would then be less interested in allowing for our positions on other matters as well. The monetary union is, after all, one of the Community’s most central integration projects. On the other hand, the economic consequences of Sweden still having a flexible exchange rate should not be exaggerated, at least in the short run. Basically, the development of the exchange rate and interest rates depends on how we manage Sweden’s economy relative to the euro area. If we succeed in making our economic policy credible, the costs of remaining outside for some years should not be unduly high. But our decision not to participate does mean that we need to be extra clear in demonstrating our determination to implement a sound economic policy, focused on sustained growth with low inflation and high employment. There are no easy short cuts, even in the short run. That Sweden, as a euro outsider with a flexible exchange rate, will have to live with exchange rate fluctuations is evident from events last autumn. We know from international experience that  BIS Review 9/1999  –3–  floating exchange rates do in fact float. Not even good economic fundamentals suffice to ensure stability in financial markets. Here we have a price for being outside the monetary union.

As at 9 March 2012, the outstanding amount in the Malaysian bond market was RM899 billion compared to RM301 billion at the end of 2001. This represents a 300 per cent increase over the last decade. Within the region, both Hong Kong and Malaysia have participated actively within the EMEAP Group in promoting regional bond market development initiatives such as the Asian Bond Markets Initiative and the Asian Bond Fund. I am confident that this pilot platform will bring benefits, not only to Hong Kong and Malaysia, but the region as a whole. We envisaged that this pilot platform will increase the efficiency of issuance, investment and settlement of bonds through the increased harmonisation of cross-border processes and standards. We expect this initiative to strengthen the cross-border linkages and facilitate the intermediation of surplus funds within the region. This increase in cross-border flow of funds will further enhance the efficiency in the mobilization of surplus funds to meet the rising investment needs of the region. The implementation of this pilot platform is indeed timely and opportune and, will serve as an important catalyst for further development in linking financial markets within this region. This, I believe, is a development that we should all welcome. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
And this will hopefully help us to avoid the type of situation I described earlier, when we failed to take remedial action to prevent the build up of risk in Swedish banks operating in the Baltic countries. But our Nordic-Baltic Cross-Border Stability Group was not built in a day. We have, in fact, held productive exchanges between our countries for years. One milestone was the NordicBaltic crisis management exercise we ran in 2007. We based this exercise on the scenario of a major crisis in a cross-border Nordic bank. By trying to handle an imaginary crisis using actual banks, and applying the institutional and regulatory structures of the different countries, we learnt many lessons on how to overcome stumbling blocks and clarify the distribution of roles and responsibilities. So what I am trying to say is that establishing a well-functioning cooperation structure takes time. So for those countries that have not done so, I recommend an immediate start. And do not be dissuaded by the fact that it is time-consuming. It is this process – leading to closer cooperation – that builds trust between the authorities involved. And when it comes to crisis management, this trust is the glue that holds everything together. Had we had better cooperation and a reasonable level of trust between the authorities concerned, I am convinced that many of the recent European cross-border banking failures  BIS Review 50/2010  3  would have been handled very differently.

Of course, digitalisation would not work without good internet connections. We, therefore, engaged Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) on possibility of boosting internet connections in the areas where we held the Greenback activities. With digitalisation, migrants can now send money home anywhere, anytime. This eliminates the need to travel great distance to the nearest town, which 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  can be costly and risky at times. The Project team experienced first-hand the numerous logistical challenges just to get into the plantations. A single journey can take about a 3-hour drive from town. Today, I am happy to note that Project Greenback in Sabah has produced encouraging results. We have sensitised close to 5,000 individuals. More than 1,600 of them have registered to use e-remittance channels. A total of RM6.9 million equivalent worth of remittances were sent from Sabah using echannels. The most encouraging result is that average remittance cost in Sabah has reduced significantly, to below 3%. 8 months ago, it was much higher. Although there is much to be done to increase the numbers, the outcomes are testament that our hard work and perseverance have paid off. We have reached an important milestone and this tells us that technology can be the gateway to financial inclusion. Technology has the potential to be a game changer.