samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2  On aggregate, private consumption has been adjusting in tune with the reduction of liquid balances, a less dynamic labor market and more restrictive financial conditions for households. The composition of job creation has shifted from formal salaried workers to self-employed and informal wage earners. Overall, this has maintained a low rate of job creation for several months. In turn, the unemployment rate rose to 8.7% in the February-April quarter and real wages remain low, still affected by high inflation (figure 7). Credit access conditions have become more constrained for households, as reported by our firstquarter Bank Lending Survey. This survey also reports that demand for credit has tightened, in a context of high-interest rates and a growing financial burden, as we reported in our Financial Stability Report for the first half of this year. Investment remains weak, reflecting the performance of the macroeconomic scenario. During the first quarter, seasonally adjusted, gross fixed capital formation fell by -0.9% with respect to the previous period. This decline was seen both in construction & other works and in machinery & equipment, which posted quarterly variations of -0.2% and -1.9%, respectively. This is consistent with the weakness of construction, reflected in the activity data of the National Accounts, the Construction Activity Indicator (Imacon) and the decrease in capital imports since mid-2022 (figure 8). Turning to companies’ perceptions, they continue to evaluate the economic outlook negatively (IMCE).

(3) Calculated as the difference between CIF and FOB imports. (4) Preliminary data for May 2023 considers the average of that month, and for June the average of the first 15 days of June. Fifteen-year average covers from June 2018 to May 2023. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. Figure 4  Activity and demand  (index, 2013.I=100, real deseasonalized series)  GDP  140  Non-mining GDP  Domestic demand  130 120 110 100 90 13  14  15  16  17  18  Source: Central Bank of Chile. 10  19  20  21  22  23  Figure 5  Private consumption  (index, 2013.I=100, real deseasonalized series)  200  Private consumption  Durable goods  Non-durable goods  Services  19  22  180 160 140 120 100 80 60 13  14  15  16  17  18  20  21  23  Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 6  Imports of consumer goods (1)  Spending in goods and services (2)  (index, 2018=100, real deseasonalized series)  Durables  160  (index, 2018=100, real deseasonalized series)  200  Non durables  180  140  160  120  140  100  120  80  100  60  80 60  40 19  20  21  22  17  23  (1) Moving quarterly averages. (2) Sales to residents. Subjected to revision.
Although uncertainty has increased, and economic activity abroad so far has been slightly weaker, the Swedish economy has developed largely in line with the outline we sketched in July. Moreover, the repo rate is still low. Swedish banks are stable The Riksbank has two main tasks. The first is to conduct monetary policy with the objective that inflation shall be low and stable. The second is to safeguard financial stability. The Riksbank therefore closely monitors developments in the financial markets. During the summer we have extended out monitoring as a result of the international turbulence. Swedish banks are still financially strong. They currently have good access to funding on all of the markets they normally use. The Riksbank’s stress tests also show that they have a good capacity to manage increased loan losses. But as the Swedish banks obtain funding largely through market borrowing in foreign currency, they are of course vulnerable to problems abroad. We currently have daily contacts with the banks and we have access to data on their funding. So far, there is nothing to indicate that it will be necessary for us to lend money to the banks. Next decision is on 6 September We are currently working hard on new analyses and forecasts for the monetary policy meeting on 6 September. I have today attempted to outline events during the summer and the issues I consider we will discuss at our next monetary policy meeting.

My colleagues and I will return to how this will ultimately affect monetary policy in the coming period in a couple of weeks’ time when our decision has been made. Moreover, we are constantly monitoring developments in the financial markets. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Figures  1. World GDP growth Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data 6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1 80  85  90  95  00  05  10  Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank  2. Commodity prices Index 2005 = 100, USD 350  350 Metals Other agricultural products  300  300  Food  250  250  Crude oil  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Note. Data are updated with new outcomes after the publication of the July Monetary Policy Report. Sources: The Economist and Intercontinental Exchange. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3.
A good reflection of this new manner of conduct is in the recent real estate credit legislation. The financial crisis has given rise to more demanding legislation that calls on banks not only to inform but also to act impartially, transparently and professionally, taking into account the rights, interests and needs of their customers. It may be said that the regulations now transcend mere transparency in form. One very positive aspect of the legislation is the improvement in legal certainty. Clearly, by properly protecting the customer, the risks of litigation are being significantly reduced. And such risks are one of the main costs the sector has been bearing. Let us not forget that the cost of litigation far exceeds any potential benefit that some banks might have obtained in the short term through questionable conduct. Moreover, improper conduct does not only affect those banks guilty of it, but the reputation of the sector as a whole. To conclude, this new type of customer-bank relationship must be the starting point for any sustainable banking business model. Naturally, if it is to be successfully set in place, a topto-bottom cultural change is essential in the organisation. This change will be headed for 10/13  failure if the bank’s senior officers and management do not offer their resolute support. Once again, we are talking about governance as a precondition for change to occur. Financial education I have highlighted how society’s demands with regard to banks’ behaviour with customers have increased considerably.

Using a nationwide information campaign, we were able to inform the public about the new 50-franc note’s design and security features in a very short time. This campaign helped members of the public across the country to familiarise themselves quickly with the new banknote. When new banknote series are issued, the demand for information is always greatest at the launch of the first denomination. Third, the return rate of the old 50-franc notes is within the expected range. We anticipate that, six months after the launch date, around two-thirds of the old notes in circulation will have been exchange  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
This incidentally is national policy, articulated by Premier Wen on the occasion of the National Finance Working Meeting held early last year. Given, however, that there are considerable controls in the financial system on the Mainland, including capital controls, and that the financial system in Hong Kong is among the freest in the world, to develop the complementary, mutually-assisting and interactive relationship between the two financial systems there is a need first to establish channels to promote the mobility in an orderly manner between the two financial systems of (1) money, (2) investors and fund raisers, (3) financial instruments and (4) financial intermediaries. Given also the increasing use and the clear prospects of the renminbi as a medium for international financial transactions there is also a need secondly to develop the ability of the financial system in Hong Kong to handle financial and other economic transactions denominated in the renminbi. Thirdly, as the mobility of money, investors, borrowers, financial instruments and financial intermediaries between the two financial systems grows, there will be rapid growth of financial traffic between the Mainland and Hong Kong. Consequently there is a need for robust links between the financial infrastructures of the two financial systems. This then is our strategy.

Ardian Fullani: Recent economic and financial developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the press conference on Bank of Albania (BoA) Supervisory Council decisions on Monetary Policy, Tirana, 26 January 2011. *  *  *  In its meeting of 26 January 2011, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the Monetary Policy Report for the second half of 2010. Following a thorough analysis of Albania’s latest economic and financial developments and discussions on performance outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 5.00%. The Council holds that current monetary conditions are appropriate for meeting the medium-term inflation target. I will proceed with a brief overview of economic developments and key issues discussed at today’s meeting that led to this decision. * * *  The Albanian economy recorded a positive development during the second half of 2010. The economic activity continued to mark growth, while main macroeconomic balances improved and risk premium and interest rates in financial markets decreased. The economic growth during 2010 relied mainly on foreign demand for Albanian goods and services, while domestic consumption and investments remained at low levels albeit positive developments. Inflation pressures remain controlled as a result of the existence of free capacities in the economy and anchored inflation expectations.
The projection that total demand for domestic goods will remain relatively limited due to the negative contribution of the foreign demand, despite the stable increase in domestic final demand throughout 2006, underlies these findings (Graph 25). 18  BIS Review 67/2006  Graph 26. Inflation and Output Gap Forecasts (Constant Interest Rate) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3  Forecast Range*  2 1  ± 2 Uncertainty Band  Output Gap  0 -1 -2 7:03  7:02  7:01  6:04  6:03  6:02  6:01  5:04  -3  * The probability of inflation staying within the forecast range is 70 percent. ♦ The path ‘consistent with the target’ which is announced in 5 December 2005 ‘’General Framework of Inflation Targeting Regime and Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy’ and constitutes the base for the principle of “accountability”. • 2006 end-year point target. ♦ The path consistent with the 2007 end-year target, under contemporary data set. In Graph 26, the forecasts that have been produced under a main scenario are presented - in which the current stance, the short-term outlook and the assumptions relating to the fundamental variables the framework of which are given above -are faithfully preserved; however, the policy interest rates are maintained as unchanged for one year starting from today. In contrast to the previous scenario, the path of policy interest rates has not been determined by a medium-term approach, but has been handled as an exogenous assumption.

The executive body consists of three members with equal rights who jointly carry out the tasks defined in article 46 of the National Bank Act and bear joint responsibility for them. First and foremost, the law describes these tasks as conceptional and operational monetary policy decisions. The Chairman does not have any special powers. Consequently, responsibility is shared. Transparency and accountability are crucial, particularly in times of crisis, when the information needs of the general public and financial markets, as well as other authorities, are increasing exponentially. We have responded to this need. For instance, information on central bank balance sheet items and SNB Bills has been stepped up, and our news conferences can now be watched on our website. During the course of the crisis, in particular, at the time of the measures to strengthen the Swiss financial system in October 2008, the number of appearances of Governing Board members before parliamentary commissions increased significantly.8 I would like to hazard a guess that the SNB has never been as transparent as it is today. In this respect, it also stands up well to international comparison. 7  This is also laid down in the Message on the revision of the National Bank Act with regard to art. 7 para. 1 NBA (6191), “The SNB’s decision-making autonomy must be retained because its accountability would otherwise inevitably come into conflict with its authority to act independently of instructions (under art. 6).” Consequently, the SNB bears “sole responsibility for the mandates described in art.
The improvements in productivity registered in many countries at the end of the 1990s have further contributed to reducing inflation. While inflation has stabilised, the fluctuations in asset prices and exchange rates have scarcely declined. The rise in asset prices, the decline in private savings and the credit boom that took place in many countries at the end of the 1990s created fears that major financial imbalances would accumulate. This applied in particular to the USA, but similar patterns were demonstrated in other countries, including Sweden. There was concern that if asset prices fell, this could trigger processes that would eventually result in a very deep and prolonged economic downturn. If monetary policy were strictly oriented towards an inflation target and inflationary pressure were low, this would lead to relatively low nominal interest rates. It could mean that the scope for using monetary policy to stimulate the economy in a deep recession was limited – problems with the “zero bound” could arise. Comparisons with developments in Japan in the late 1980s and afterwards seem appropriate here. Even in a minor economic downturn, credit restrictions at the banks caused by large losses could reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. Measures that could prevent financial bubbles arising and reduce their consequences were thus discussed. Was there, for instance, reason and opportunity as a preventive measure to take into account asset prices when formulating monetary policy? Could solicitude for financial stability motivate interest rate changes?

Interest rates must be raised before overly large imbalances accumulate. The motive would be to reduce the risk of a recession and low inflation during the period following a fall in asset prices. If the central bank is successful, it is not possible to demonstrate afterwards that one has been right. A further argument is that it is difficult to determine what change in the interest rate is required to achieve the desired objective. However, the advocates of the more ambitious strategy, where monetary policy more explicitly takes asset prices into account, claim that although it is difficult to judge whether a bubble is involved, this is not more difficult than estimating potential growth, for instance. If one extends the target horizon, the inflation target may in itself motivate tightening monetary policy, despite the fact that this would mean that inflation fell below the target level for a period of time. Based on purely theoretical reasoning, the target horizon is the entire future. The problem is that forecasts become more uncertain the further ahead they look. Many central banks with a strict inflation target policy therefore talk as though the forecast and target horizon were the same. It is difficult to take a clear stand in favour of one of the strategies. None of the arguments can be dismissed. As always, this proves that monetary policy is more of an art than a science.
In Britain the creation of the Financial Services Authority led the Bank of England to build up its resources in financial stability analysis. This was a result of the Bank’s efforts to ensure that oversight of the financial system did not fall between the gaps in the new institutional structure of supervision. Since then other central banks have followed the Bank of England’s lead. Financial stability units – small teams with backgrounds in economics and banking supervision whose job it is to monitor wider trends in the financial system – are now increasingly a feature of the organisational charts of many central banks. These factors have led to a redefinition in the way in which central banks have begun to approach their traditional macro prudential remit. I would like to mention four of these in particular: •  The formalisation of payments and settlement system oversight;  •  The publication of financial stability reports;  •  Stress testing and scenario analysis; and  •  Concern with financial condition of non-bank financial intermediaries and health of corporate and household balance sheets. Let me now briefly talk about each of these in turn. Payment system oversight has been part of the core functions of central banks almost from the very beginning. However, once the formal responsibility for banking supervision was split away from central banks like the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia, these central banks began to formalise their role in payment system oversight.

A report released shortly after I came to the New York Fed showed that the typical New York State community college engages with more than 100 local employers, spanning every industry sector.4 More recently, the New York Fed hosted an event that explored ways to advance economic prosperity in rural areas.5 Many great insights were shared, including a framework for workforce development programs that contained four principles: 1) fashioning a strategy around a community's assets; 2) designing programs that are adaptable; 3) including traditionally marginalized groups in decision-making; and 4) bringing together community, business, and government leaders-like you are doing today. 2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Conclusion Developing career-building programs that meet the needs of local employers and are accessible to job seekers is critical to bridging the skills gap. Collaboration is a key component of any successful program. By joining together, we can advance the economic resilience of rural areas like Columbia and Greene Counties-and strengthen our Jenga tower. 1 Columbia-Greene LWDA Local Plan, July 1, 2021 – June 30, 2025. 2 Office of the New York State Comptroller, Availability, Access and Affordability:  Understanding Broadband Challenges in New York State, September 2021. 3 Investing in America's Workforce, a Federal Reserve System initiative in collaboration  with the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University, the Ray Marshall Center at the University of Texas at Austin, and the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research (2019).
For example, the ability to transfer funds between different bank accounts may increase deposit volatility and could, in extreme situations, lead to “virtual bank runs”. Banks will need to build this possibility into their liquidity management policies. Similarly, it is possible that credit risks could increase in the future if the relationship with customers becomes more distant and more transitory, and if the banks relax credit standards because of competitive pressures. On the other hand, banks will be better placed to obtain and organise information about their customers in an electronic banking environment, and this could help to improve credit evaluation techniques as well as to assist marketing. It all depends how much information each bank has about a given customer. If the customer spreads his financial affairs across a large number of internet-based banks, each one will have only one piece of the overall customer profile. Regulatory Framework So how do we regulators address these various kinds of risk? The first point to make is that our approach to the regulation and supervision of e-banking is still at an early stage, like the product itself, and is still evolving. We recognise that we have a lot of work to do in keeping abreast of, and monitoring, developments. This is part of our general approach of trying to improve our ability to determine that banks have in place adequate systems to measure, identify and control the various types of risk with which they are faced.

Parentage would also be important – it would be highly desirable from our point of view that an internet bank was itself majority-owned by another well-established bank that could provide guidance and financial support if necessary. In general, we would need to be assured that the virtual bank has “substance”, and is not simply a “concept”, taking advantage of the popularity of the internet. On this basis, our authorisation and supervisory regime for virtual banks would be similar to that for conventional banks. However, an offshore internet bank, whether wholly “virtual” or not, might not attempt to take deposits in Hong Kong in the strict legal sense – in other words, the deposit contract might not necessarily be created in Hong Kong. Instead, the offshore internet bank might invite potential customers to send their money to a location abroad, where the deposit would be legally created. In this case, the bank would be taking deposits outside Hong Kong and would not require authorisation under the Banking Ordinance to carry on a deposit-taking business here. But that is not the end of the story. It is also an offence to advertise for deposits in Hong Kong, even if they are to be taken outside the territory, unless the disclosure requirements of the Fifth Schedule of the Banking Ordinance are adhered to. An advertisement would include one contained on a website. The problem is how to determine whether a particular offshore website is targeted at Hong Kong.