samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But let us first highlight the huge benefits of EMU precisely in the current crisis. Can anyone imagine how the 16 euro area countries would have weathered the international financial storm had they retained their 16 currencies? Anyone can appreciate the scale and seriousness of the financial problems these countries would have faced had each one retained its currency. Remember what happened in the early 1990s when the effects of the US recession took some time to be felt in Europe, but eventually did so with unusual virulence. Amid the serious challenges arising from German reunification, the lack of a coordinated monetary policy response on this side of the Atlantic then led to massive speculation against exchange rates and to a major foreign exchange crisis, which some did not hesitate to call the collapse of the European Monetary System. This speculation ultimately imposed enormous costs for all the countries involved. This will not happen again now. At this time of enormous uncertainty, the key institution of the Monetary Union, the ECB, has reacted in an exemplary fashion. In the space of five months it has managed to reduce the Euribor from 5.3% to 2% through changes in monetary policy, despite the increases in spreads arising from the financial crisis. And it has further adopted a policy of unlimited liquidity provision, in coordination with other central banks, as illustrated by the agreements for liquidity provision in currencies other than the euro.

These adjustments have allowed us to learn how ON RRPs might be used to support the monetary policy objectives of the FOMC. Our testing has demonstrated that ON RRP operations can set a soft floor on short-term interest rates. That is, while some trades may occur below the ON RRP offering rate, the volume-weighted averages of most money market rates have been above the ON RRP rate on nearly all days (Figure 2). Data across a range of money markets provide evidence that changes in the ON RRP rate affected pricing for both unsecured and secured instruments and that the operations successfully set a floor on short-term interest rates. While market participants are aware of the success in producing a floor from such volume-weighted rates as the fed funds effective rate and GCF Repo Index®, the Desk has been also examining detailed transaction-level data for evidence that the ON RRP sets a floor on nearly all overnight money market transactions. 12  The payment of interest on reserves has been in place since October 2008, although the Federal Reserve Board recently requested public comment on proposed technical changes to the methodology for calculating IOER. The proposal intends to enhance the effectiveness of changes in the IOER rate in moving the federal funds rate into the target range when changes in those rates do not coincide with the beginning of a reserve maintenance period. Further information is available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/ bcreg/20150413a.htm.
As the challenges become more complex, standalone actions may not achieve the desired outcomes. Moreover, the perceived best solution for one country may have unintended consequences for collective stability. Asia has, thus, come together collectively to conduct regional surveillance with concrete steps to establish financial support networks, to develop regional financial markets and payment systems. Such collaboration also provides a collective voice and representation and the potential to be heard in the sphere of global policy formulation. Modernisation of the central bank As central banks advance forward into the future of great uncertainty, the challenge of the new environment demands new institutional capability for the central banks to remain effective in delivering our mandates. Central banks also need to undertake its own transformation and modernization. Such institutional capability enhancement may involve changes in the institutional arrangements, organizational and governance structures and practices, the empowering legislation and the talent required. Such organisational development would thus require continual reinvention to adjust to the new realities of the changing environment. In most emerging economies, the largest concentration of talent resides in the central bank. In this new environment, this talent needs to have new capabilities to deal with complex issues from different perspectives that are no longer based on functional boundaries. While this involves horizontal collaboration across the organization, it also requires management of relationships including with the government while retaining the independence of the organization.

And financial regulation must have a less pro-cyclical effect. The objective must be to enable the banks to curb the impact of shocks on the economy, rather than to amplify them, as is the case now, where negative spirals are generated between the financial system and the real economy. Because of the global character of today’s financial crisis, the authorities must work in concert to find solutions, both in terms of recapitalisation of the banks and regulation of the financial sector. 2  BIS Review 12/2009
In theoretical and scientific debate round-tables, efforts have been focused on identifying causes and taking measures to prevent recurrence of such events in the future. A new financial infrastructure is being designed. This is the context of this annual meeting, on whose focus is the identification of post-crisis challenges our region is faced with. Allow me to briefly address two or three of my personal opinions about this situation. Before the impact of international financial crisis, all countries in the region were involved in important reforms aimed at increasing the economic growth. At this stage, through necessary legal improvements and prudent development policies, there took place the opening of economies and the development of trade, increase in domestic and foreign investments, overall liberalization of markets and promotion of financial market development, to provide more qualitative and sustainable financial services to businesses and households. From the macroeconomic viewpoint, fiscal policies in the region are aimed at fiscal consolidation through revenue growth and greater investment-oriented public spending. Monetary policies, thanks to different exchange rate regimes, have generally kept consumer price rise on track and interest rates have followed a downward trend. However, the global financial crisis has affected the countries in our region, due to some weaknesses that were present during the growth phase. First, the closeness of our countries and the concentration of trade with the European Union area, as well as migratory movements, have brought about a large use of the euro in the regional economies.

The Governing Council decided to leave the current value unchanged at an annual growth rate of 4½% for the broad aggregate M3, as the evidence continues to support the assumptions which have formed the basis of the derivation of the reference value since 1999, namely a trend potential output growth of 2-2½% per annum and a trend decline in M3 income velocity of ½-1% per annum in the euro area. When comparing current developments with the reference value, it is important to bear in mind that the assessment of monetary developments is essential for long-term trends in inflation and that the reference value is therefore to be seen as a medium-term concept. Short-term movements of M3 do not necessarily have implications for future price developments. Moreover, deviations of M3 from the reference value must be analysed in conjunction with other real and financial indicators in order to understand their implications for price stability. Turning to our current assessment on the outlook for price stability in the euro area, and starting with the first pillar, M3 growth remained high in the last quarter of 2002. The continued strength in monetary growth reflects an ongoing pronounced preference for liquidity in an environment of high financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty. In addition, the low level of interest rates in the euro area makes the holding of liquid assets relatively attractive.
Christian Noyer: Building on Euro area achievements to prepare for enlargement Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at the 2007 Annual Conference on Macroeconomic and Economic Policy Issues, Bank of Latvia, Riga, 10 October 2007. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure and honour for me to address this conference hosted by the Latvijas Banka. Having just passed the European Union 50th anniversary, it is an appropriate time to reflect upon the essence and future of this extraordinary endeavour. Never before, in the whole history of mankind, have democratic nations pursued and reached, through peaceful cooperation, such a close degree of interdependence, involving, in many crucial areas, deliberate pooling of sovereignty. Of course, the process has not been without difficulties and tensions, many of which are still apparent and acute. Of course, numerous challenges remain. But, for the first time in more than a thousand years, Europe is at peace and prosperous, with democratic regimes everywhere. This is, by historical standards, an exceptional achievement. The whole process of European integration was based on a strong intuition: by sharing the instruments and policies underpinning economic prosperity, European nations would create an irreversible situation of interdependence and solidarity where conflicts and wars of the past would become impossible. The creation of the Euro area is the natural consequence of this original intuition. It results both from a political vision and an economic and financial necessity.

Far from being a closed Club, the Euro area is open and has a true calling for covering all the EU members, in so far as they fulfil the convergence criteria. Indeed, adopting the Euro can be seen as a legal obligation for all EU members once they have fulfilled the Maastricht convergence criteria. Monetary union is an on-going process. Starting in 1999 with 11 members, the Euro area has regularly expanded. On the 1st of January 2001, Greece joined the Euro area. More recently, on the 1st of January 2007, Slovenia was the first of the New Members States which entered into the EU since 2004 to adopt the Euro; this brought the current number of members of the Euro area to 13. Two more NMS – Cyprus and Malta – will join the monetary union in 2008. At this stage, the relevant question for the new EU member states is thus not whether but when to join the Euro area. The answer of this question is clear: the New Members States have to achieve strict and sustainable fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria whose economic rationale is very strong. Why strict and sustainable?
Monetary policy can respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. Since early November, the sterling exchange rate is up around 6% and market interest rates in three years’ time are up around 30 basis points. Long-term interest rates are back to their pre-referendum levels. Markets also responded strongly to the US election result, with both breakeven inflation and real yields rising. Alongside those market developments, UK indicators suggest continued solid growth, and the pace of fiscal consolidation is now expected to be slower. The MPC will assess these and other developments at its meeting next week as it plots the monetary course ahead. Whatever economic developments and prospects, the MPC will always set monetary policy to maintain price stability and promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom. As it did when it was the only game in town after the global financial crisis; and as it will going forward, in better balance with fiscal and structural policies. Monetary policy will continue its good work as the UK economy adjusts to new opportunities with Europe and the rest of the world. In the end, monetary policy isn’t a spectre but a friendly ghost. 18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  18  i  Monetarism is the view that the dynamics of money have a temporary influence on demand and, via the celebrated “quantity equation”, a major influence of prices.

14  Figure 11 Structural decomposition of 10-year zero rate (*) (basis points, accumulated since 1 July 2019)  5 4  Growth Risk premium Total  Monetary Policy External  3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jul.19  Jan.20  Jul.20  Jan.21  Jul.21  Jan.22  Jul.22  (*) Historical decomposition of the long rate from a BVAR based on the identification strategy proposed by Eterovic and Eterovic (2022), incorporating an external bloc. The exogenous bloc encompasses all U.S. shocks (monetary policy, growth, risk aversion and pure risk), which have been aggregated for simplicity. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on RiskAmerica data. 15  Figure 12 Trend growth trajectory (percent)  5 4 3 2 1 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 13 Inflation forecast (1) CPI inflation (annual change, percent)  14  Core inflation (2) (annual change, percent)  CPI  12  MP Report Sep.22 MP Report Dic.22  10  8  14  Core CPI  12  MP Report Sep.22 MP Report Dec.22  10  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0 19  20  21  22  23  24  19  (1) Gray area, as from fourth quarter of 2022, shows forecast. (2) CPI without volatiles Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).
Inflation in the euro area has proven to be much higher and more persistent than originally projected. This reflects the unprecedented series of shocks we have faced, and the fact that those shocks have led to turning points in our economic environment. Monetary policy cannot prevent the first-round effects of many of these shocks. But it can ensure that they do not become embedded. This is what the ECB is doing. We have taken major steps along the path of normalising our monetary policy, frontloading our rate increases. This signals that we are determined to bring inflation back to our medium-term target of 2% in a timely manner and ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored. We will not let this phase of high inflation feed into economic behaviour and create a lasting inflation problem. Our monetary policy will be set with one goal in mind: to deliver on our price stability mandate. 1. Rees, D. and Rungcharoenkitkul, P. (2021), “Bottlenecks: causes and macroeconomic implications”, BIS Bulletin, No 48, Bank for International Settlements, November. 2. ECB staff have estimated that errors in our assumptions about energy prices explain around 75% of our forecast errors one-quarter ahead over the period from the start of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. See Chahad, M., Hofmann-Drahonsky, A.-C., Meunier, B., Page, A. and Tirpák, M. (2022), “What explains recent errors in the inflation projections of Eurosystem and ECB staff?”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 3, ECB. 3. Average levels from 1 January 2022 to 23 February 2022. 4.

We know there are effective fintech solutions to this which leverage off the credit of the payer. In such circumstances, and more broadly where fintech moves further into more traditional banking areas such as peer to peer and other lending, the Bank recognises that we need to think about and take forward a proportionate, activity-based regulatory response. Let me turn to the second gap in relation to a lack of client focus: an engagement gap, if I can put it that way. This manifests itself in a number of ways, as noted during the many insightful interventions during our panel sessions. Perhaps Julia Black put it best when she described the dangers of groups of professionals talking just amongst themselves. This has been part of the issue with financial reform – a sense that reform was a pre-packaged process built on discussions between regulators, banks, and investors, with sympathetic academics adding in their words of support. Part of the reason for our broader discussions today is to ensure we move out of this state of affairs. And of course, once we bring in other perspectives, it changes our own perspective and underscores just how hermetically sealed the industry in its broad sense can be. Let me say a couple of words on this. It should be recognized that the industry has made tremendous strides to address a number of issues.
José Manuel González-Páramo: Rethinking risk management – from lessons learned to taking action Speech by Mr José Manuel González-Páramo, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Risk and Return South Africa conference, Cape Town, 4 March 2011. * 1. *  *  Introduction  Good afternoon, I was very pleased to accept the organisers’ kind invitation to participate in this conference and to speak about a topic that at the European Central Bank (ECB) we consider of utmost relevance: How to adjust our financial risk management frameworks in the light of the lessons learned from the crisis. Indeed, the ECB has always placed a great importance on the design, development and implementation of sound risk management practices. The financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 and that continues affecting the global economy has prompted us to rethink and further strengthen the risk management function at the ECB and within the Eurosystem (consisting of the ECB and of the national central banks of the seventeen countries that have adopted the euro). Therefore, it is a pleasure to have the opportunity to share our recent experience with distinguished professionals from the financial industry, such as those present in this room. My intention is to comment upon a number of issues that may have probably been already touched upon in the previous sessions. More specifically, I will first summarise some of the general lessons for risk managers that we have learned from the financial crisis.

Those models, measures and opinions are still valid tools, but need to be used in a correct manner, and need to be complemented by other tools and, more generally, by expert judgement. Risk managers should not simply take comfort in recent historical regularities and in wellestablished standards for risk measurement. Discomfort should be their habitat. All business areas of the institution should contribute and challenge the risk management function to look at risks in a different manner and to adopt better communication strategies. We have recently lived through many “what-ifs” that almost nobody thought of, and although risk management is all about dealing with uncertainty rather than making point forecasts, our warm and placid financial models, fed with short-sighted inputs, were not capable of adequately capturing the risks that ended up materialising. In hindsight it seems unbelievable that we believed in models that were predicting that nothing terrible could happen in 99 out of 100 years, usually using less than 10 years of data to construct such prediction. In the last 100 years, not counting the recent crisis, we have experienced 2 world wars, the Great Depression and an increasingly frequent number of financial crises affecting specific sectors and regions that have often been a source of contagion. It does not take a statistician to prove that the models were fundamentally misused. It just takes common sense, but as the saying goes, this may be the least common of the senses.
11 Other institutions include legal tender status (meaning that you cannot be sued for non-payment of debts if you offer sterling to meet them) and the insurance of deposits of up to £ at banks and building societies backed by the Government. 12 This will feature JMW Turner. For further information see https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/polymer-20-pound-note 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  -  The Monetary Policy Committee which conducts monetary policy independently to achieve price stability defined by the 2% inflation target;  -  The Prudential Regulation Committee which is charged with ensuring the safety and soundness of the banks and building societies that hold your money;  -  The Financial Policy Committee with its wide powers to maintain the resilience of the financial system as a whole; and  -  The Bank’s powers and facilities that provide a wide range of liquidity to banks and other financial institutions in order to promote the continuous functioning of the financial system during shocks. The Bank has been given clear remits by Parliament for these responsibilities and has operational independence to use its powers to achieve them. We are accountable to Parliament and the people for our performance. The combination of this robust institutional framework and the fact that only sterling is legal tender in the UK sets a very high bar for competing forms of money to dislodge sterling. But at present, more than a thousand virtual or “crypto” currencies are trying to do just that.

The Advent of Cryptocurrencies In the depths of the global financial crisis, the coincidence of technological developments and collapsing confidence in some banking systems sparked the cryptocurrency revolution. Its advocates claim that a decentralised cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, is more trustworthy than centralised fiat money because:  -  Its supply is fixed and therefore immune from the age-old temptations of debasement;  -  Its use is free from risky private banks; and  -  Those who hold it can remain anonymous and therefore free from the ravenous eyes of tax authorities or worse still law enforcement. Some also argue that cryptocurrencies could be more efficient than centralised fiat money because the underlying distributed ledger technology cuts out intermediaries like central banks and financial institutions and allows payments to be made directly between payer and payee. 14,15  13  The Bank operates the Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) service and infrastructure that holds accounts for banks, building societies and other institutions. The balances in these accounts can be used to move money in real time between these account holders. This delivers final and risk-free settlement. 14 Whereas banks hold records of most fiat money and are entrusted to ensure its validity, with digital currencies, the ledger containing all transactions by all users is publicly available.