samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Market operators are once again spending money freely outside of their day jobs. An example: For almost 40 years, I have spent a not insignificant portion of my savings collecting rare, first-edition books. Like any patient investor in any market, I have learned through several market cycles that you buy when nobody wants something and sell when everyone clamors for more. During the financial debacle of 2007–09, I was able to buy for a song volumes I have long coveted (including a mint-condition first printing from 1841 of Mackay’s Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions, which every one of you should read and re-read, certainly if you are contemplating seeing the movie The Wolf of Wall Street). Today, I could not afford them. First editions, like paintings, sculptures, fine wines, Bugattis and homes in Highland Park or River Oaks, have become the by-product of what I am sure Bill Martin would consider a party well underway. I want to make clear that I am not among those who think we are presently in a “bubble” mode for stocks or bonds or most other assets. But this much I know: Just as Martin knew by virtue of his background as a noneconomist who had hands-on Wall Street experience, markets for anything tradable overshoot and one must be prepared for adjustments that bring markets back to normal valuations. This need not threaten the real economy.

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
A large part of the collateral the banks pledge for these loans will probably be comprised of covered mortgage bonds. The measures should therefore also have a positive effect on the functioning of the mortgage market. Together with the measures taken by other central banks, this should lead to better liquidity in the financial markets globally. A further measure is that the Riksbank as recently as today decided to establish a loan facility in Swedish krona to increase access to loans of longer duration. There have thus been disruptions in the financial markets, but the Riksbank, other government agencies and central banks have taken action to improve the functioning of the markets. We will of course continue to follow developments very closely. We are constantly updating our analyses and we are prepared to take action if necessary. In addition, as I have already mentioned, we have close contacts with the banks, market participants, other government agencies and our central bank colleagues in other countries. Monetary policy When the Executive Board met for our most recent monetary policy meeting on 3 September, the decision was to raise the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75 per cent. However, the forecast for how the repo rate would develop in future was lowered in relation to the interest rate path that had been presented in July. The July forecasts contained a fairly high probability for a further two raises during the autumn.

I would like to take the opportunity to answer the criticism against us that we care too much about the price of oil and food commodities in the world market when we make our monetary policy decisions. The reason given is that we cannot affect these prices with our monetary policy. Of course it is quite true that we cannot affect world market prices. But nor have we tried to stop the direct effects of the upturn in oil and commodity prices. If this had been our aim, the interest rate would have been much higher than it is now. Inflation is also much higher now than our target, because of the direct effects of higher commodity prices. The reason we have not tightened our monetary policy severely is out of consideration to the real economy, production and employment. However, what we are anxious to see is that the indirect effects of the increases in oil and food prices are not allowed to push up inflation more permanently. We conduct a flexible inflation-targeting policy. If shocks occur that mean inflation will deviate from the target, we can allow it to take some time to attain the inflation target. The normal time horizon is a couple of years, but sometimes it may be sooner and sometimes it may need to take a little longer. Weaker growth With regard to growth in Sweden and abroad, my views were more pessimistic than the assessment presented in the September Monetary Policy Update. Developments in the United States appeared particularly uncertain.
13 I. Dierickx and K. Cool (1989), “Asset Stock Accumulation and Sustainability of Competitive Advantage”, Management Science, vol. 35, pp. 1504-1511. 15/18  restructuring of government organisations engaging in innovation so as to exploit synergies between them. The government research assessment systems could also be redesigned to ensure that the allocation of funds to research centres reflects their academic excellence14 and a public-private collaboration framework could be developed in which the private sector can efficiently channel government funds through the design of well-defined incentives. The demographic challenge: population ageing The challenges associated with slow productivity growth and with the transformations resulting from the technological progress I have just described above take on even greater importance when they are framed in the context of the transition to a new demographic paradigm characterised by population ageing which, although present in many Western economies, has a particularly strong impact on Spain. The ageing challenge  Indeed, the combination of a low birth rate, high longevity and the impending retirement of the generation known as the baby boomers makes Spain one of the countries where the dependency ratio, which measures the proportion of persons at least 65 years of age to those aged from 16 to 64, is increasing most sharply. Specifically, according to the latest projections by the Spanish National Statistics Institute, the dependency ratio will grow from 29.9% in 2019 to 51.8% in 2050, i.e. it will practically double in three decades.

Another very important change was the creation of a fiscal policy framework with an amended budget process. This framework and the new process aimed to get a grip on the evolution of public expenditures while also leading  1  The Economic Commission (1993). 2  A debate about this had been taking place for a while at that point. The Swedish Centre for Business and Policy Studies (SNS) had been advocating a so-called norm-based stabilisation policy since 1985, see Heikensten and Vredin (2012) for an overview. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  to an average surplus in terms of net lending. The overall aim was to ensure that fiscal policy would have the desired long-term orientation. Flexible inflation targeting preferable – but improvements not ruled out But even though these and other changes have made the Swedish economy more reliable and resilient to shocks, we too have been affected by the events of the past few years. The global financial crisis and surprisingly low inflation have meant that a number of previously accepted truths have begun to be called into question, and led to a debate about whether the economic policy framework developed prior to the financial crisis should be modified or potentially even replaced. My view here is completely clear: it is important for us to think very carefully before we make any comprehensive changes to the Swedish economic policy frameworks.
Page 2/8  Monetary policy  With a view to ensuring appropriate monetary conditions, we are continuing to pursue our expansionary monetary policy. This is based on the negative interest rate that banks and other financial market participants are charged on their sight deposits at the SNB and on our continued willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary. Both instruments remain essential as the situation is still fragile. While the foreign exchange market has largely shrugged off recent equity market turbulence, circumstances in the financial markets – and thus by extension monetary conditions for the economy – could rapidly deteriorate again. Such a development would be undesirable in the current environment. Inflation is now within the range that the SNB equates with price stability, and capacity utilisation in the economy has continued to improve. Nevertheless, inflation remains low and inflationary pressure is modest despite our expansionary monetary policy. Tightening monetary conditions would be premature at this juncture, and would risk unnecessarily jeopardising the positive economic momentum that has been established. The Swiss economy picked up markedly last year against a positive global economic backdrop. However, we should not let ourselves get carried away. Despite the easing on the foreign exchange market in the past twelve months, both short-term (cyclical) and longer-term (structural) challenges remain. Competition with other business locations around the world remains as intense now as it was prior to the crisis.

The bank-business relationship institutionalisation might assist in resolving a number of issues, which may be challenging to be addressed individually by banks or businesses, be they large ones. The best example is the effort of reducing the informal economy. All present parties in this meeting have expressed their pros to the fight against evasion and informality. In reality, however, the dishonest competition forces many of them to choose the informal means, since, contrary, they will find themselves out of the market. The breaking of this vicious circle could be made possible by a better coordination of our efforts, in order to avoid the so-called free-rider phenomenon, where the dishonest business is given too much room to take advantage of the situation. Hence, I welcome today’s meeting, hoping that it shall not simply remain within the communication context, but rise in a higher level of coordination. 1/1
Although credit and debit cards are the most important means of payment among the general public, cash (banknotes and coin) is still an important payment instrument and has actually gained in importance in the recent term. For a long period, cash in circulation amounted to less than 1% of GDP, whereas it now totals roughly 2½%. Price level developments and the increase in cash in circulation give cause to consider the need to issue a new banknote with a higher face value. The Central Bank has therefore begun preparing for the issue of a new 10,000 kr. banknote that will be equipped with better and more numerous security features than its predecessors. In appearance, the new note will be similar to the others in use, and the graphics will be related to the poet Jónas Hallgrímsson. The bill will also feature the plover. It is planned that the new banknote will be put into circulation in the autumn or early winter of 2013. On this occasion, and because we are faced with a large array of complex tasks, as I have mentioned in my speech today, I think it is appropriate to close with a poem by Jónas Hallgrímsson, which I interpret to mean that challenges like those ahead of us certainly require organisation and forethought. We can only cross the river where it is possible to pass. But to make the crossing we also need determination and courage. In Jónas’ words: The cliffs on life’s swift current are cleft by shallow valleys.

End-year Inflation Target and Annual CPI Inflation (Percentage Change) 35 Annual Inflation  Target  30 25 20 15 10 5  Jan-06  Sep-05  May-05  Jan-05  Sep-04  May-04  Jan-04  Sep-03  May-03  Jan-03  0  Source: TURKSTAT. However, the sole reason for the realization of inflation above the path consistent with the end year inflation target in the first quarter of the year is not the said base effect. When the contribution of subitems to first quarter inflation is analyzed, it is observed that the course of prices of unprocessed food products, which increased beyond expectations, tobacco products and services played a leading role in the said rise. Nevertheless, high-rated seasonal discounts in clothing prices due to demand and competitive conditions limited the increase in consumer price inflation (Graph 2). 2  BIS Review 67/2006  Graph 2. The Contribution of Sub-items to First Quarter Inflation (Point) 1.41  1.5  2005  2006  1.0 0.64  0.51  0.5  0.39  0.26 0.06  0.30  0.20  0.04  0.01  0.31  0.21  0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.18  -1.5 Food and Nonalcoholic Bev. Alcoholic Bev. Tobacco  -1.36  Clothing and Footwear  Housing  Restaurant and Hotels  Other Subgroups  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Dear Guests, Classifying goods and services group, price increases in goods group gained pace, while the services group inflation declined, except rents item, in the first quarter of 2006.
First, at present gender pay gap reporting in the UK only covers companies with more than 250 employees. In practice, this means it covers only around 40% of the UK working population in the private sector.15 To tackle the pay gap comprehensively, this suggests there is a strong case for extending the pay reporting regime to smaller companies – say, those with 30 or more staff. Second, there is currently no compulsory system of company reporting on the ethnicity pay gap in the UK, though the government has consulted on doing so. The ethnicity pay gap is at least as large as for females, and if anything has been more persistent, as shown by the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition results. In my opinion, there are therefore strong grounds for extending compulsory reporting to ethnicity as well as gender. This analysis also emphasises the importance of looking at labour market outcomes for different ethnic minority groups, rather than necessarily treating ethnic minorities as a single group. Third, at present only a handful of countries internationally require companies to publish gender and ethnicity pay gaps. There is a strong case for reporting diversity pay gaps, on an internationally-harmonised basis, to allow cross-country as well as cross-company comparison. Given their expertise on labour market issues, this might be something on which the OECD could lead. The international central banking community could also help lead by example. The benefits of internationally-harmonised disclosures, as an incentive device for action, have recently been demonstrated in the case of climate change disclosures.

25  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  25  Chart 21: Ethnicity pay gap Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition time series  Per cent  15 10 5 0 ‐5  Unaccounted for  Accounted for  ‐10  Ethnicity pay gap  ‐15 1997  1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  2013  2015  2017  2019  Source: ONS Labour Force Survey and Bank of England calculations. Note: A positive ethnicity pay gap in this chart indicates that ethnic minorities earn less than their white counterparts, whereas a negative ethnicity pay gap indicates that ethnic minorities earn more than their white counterparts. The decomposition also helps explain the otherwise puzzling finding of a larger ethnicity pay gap in London than elsewhere in the UK. That larger gap appears largely to reflect compositional effects. Once these are accounted for, the unexplained ethnicity pay gap in London, at 13 percentage points, is similar to the sample average, at just under 10 percentage points, and is about as persistent. An alternative, and more flexible, way of exploring the determinants of pay gaps is by using regression techniques. In our baseline regressions, we use the approach of Goldin (2014) to estimate gender and ethnicity pay gaps. Given the rich set of controls in our dataset, this offers robust estimates of conditional gender and ethnicity pay gaps. It also provides useful insights into the factors, individual and job-specific, most important for driving headline pay gaps.
Institutional capability and independence  On the institutional side, the question is whether a central bank has the institutional status and necessary independence to carry out any action it sees necessary to fulfil its task. The Governing Council has the unfettered capability to take and implement appropriate policy decisions whenever circumstances warrant, given the ECB’s strong institutional independence. This reflects the maintenance of a clear dividing line in the euro area between the central bank and the fiscal sphere of responsibilities. The fact that the ECB has refrained from purchasing government bonds is in line with this institutional framework. This approach avoids any possibly intricate interaction with other policy actors on decisions relevant for exit, and maintains a clear separation of responsibilities between the central bank and fiscal authorities. 4. Reputation to act when appropriate  Any strategy will only be credible if there is no doubt about the ex ante determination of the institution to implement the required actions. This is the fourth cornerstone. From this perspective, the ECB’s determination to act in a consistent way is beyond any doubt. Over the past decade, our institution has established a clear track record of vigilance and reputation for acting in a timely fashion. Let me give only two examples: in December 2005 the Governing Council, on the basis of its monetary policy strategy, acted promptly to address mounting risks to price stability.

Jean-Claude Trichet: The ECB’s exit strategy Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the CFS conference “The ECB and Its Watchers XI”, Frankfurt, 4 September 2009. * I. *  *  Introduction  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a pleasure to be with you today to participate in this 11th edition of the ECB Watchers’ Conference. I am delighted to see that this conference has established itself so successfully as a venue for interaction between the European Central Bank and its observers. My remarks today come in the context of the ongoing financial crisis, the most severe the developed world has witnessed for more than sixty years. As the Governing Council recognised yesterday, “there are increasing signs of stabilisation in economic activity in the euro area and elsewhere. This is consistent with the expectation that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end.” Nevertheless, it would be too soon to call the crisis over. The Governing Council also underscored that uncertainty remains high and that the recovery is expected to be rather uneven. Exceptional times have called for exceptional actions. Faced with the financial crisis, we have introduced a set of non-standard measures, which we call “enhanced credit support”. These measures are intended to prevent the threat of a drastic loss of liquidity in the financial system as a whole and support the flow of credit to firms and households above and beyond what could be achieved through policy interest rate reductions alone.
Whilst the global financial crisis has provided Islamic finance with a unique opportunity in the international financial system, the future success of the industry moving forward, will also depend on its continuing ability to innovate more indigenous shariah-based instruments and evolve business models that strengthen the nexus of Islamic finance with the real economy. An essential part of the overall infrastructure therefore is an effective legal framework to provide an enabling environment that will enforce the legality of contracts according to the Shariah and the regulatory treatment of the new and innovative Islamic financial solutions. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  While Islamic finance practitioners and scholars continue to draw from the source of fiqh muamalat to create new and innovative instruments, the legal framework needs to be further strengthened to ensure alignment with new market developments. This is to ensure that it continues to lend certainty and predictability to the innovative products and financial transactions. Furthermore, as Islamic financial activities venture beyond national boundaries, the development of legal frameworks that is facilitative of cross-border transactions is pivotal. There has to be court recognition and acceptance of the Islamic contracts within the common and civil law systems, with a common approach of interpreting the rights of the contracting parties based on Shariah principles, in particular for cross-border transactions. Malaysia has taken the approach to address this imperative via the Law Harmonisation Committee which was established in 2010.

Second, the decline in short-term real interest rates has been accompanied by a similarly steep fall in longer-term real interest rates. The yield on the 10–20 year portion of the indexed gilt curve, for example, was 4% in the mid-1990s; by the end of that decade it had dropped to barely 2%; on the eve of the financial crisis, in mid-2007, it was less than 1%; today it is –0.3% (Chart 4). This is significant because, just as a matter of principle, it’s hard to see how pure monetary disturbances – including any independent decisions of monetary  (Woodford (2003)). Occasionally people distinguish the short and longer-term level of this rate (using “natural” and “equilibrium” respectively). Neutral is the term usually reserved for the rate that would keep the economy cyclically stable over the longer term – the intercept in the Taylor rule – though in many settings this is the same as the natural rate. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  policy makers – can have very enduring influences on real things, including real interest rates (that’s particularly true for monetary authorities in relatively small and open economies like the UK). So they’re unlikely to have had much bearing on real forward rates. Third, even if you doubt these basic principles, the data show that, where we’re able to isolate autonomous (or at least unexpected4) shifts in official interest rates, they don’t seem to produce any reaction in longer-term real forward rates (Chart 5).