samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A German exporter selling goods both in the USA and in Sweden could, for instance, have kept its profits up fairly well by determining its prices in dollars in the USA and in Swedish kronor in Sweden. At the same time, increased competition should in general mean that wholesalers and retailers in the domestic market have greater difficulty in passing import price increases on to the consumer channel. The general demand situation in the world also has great significance for the capacity to raise prices in all channels - low utilisation of resources subdues price pressure and high resource utilisation increases price pressure. However, our knowledge of pricing behaviour among both exporters to Sweden and domestic operators is limited. This means that assessments of the effects on inflation of a particular development in the krona are uncertain. An even more difficult task is to make assessments regarding the krona exchange rate during the forecast period. In the medium to long term, we do not obtain much guidance from the theoretical models for determining the exchange rate. Almost all models are based on the real exchange rate creating balance in a country’s foreign trade. A particular basket of goods shall, for instance, cost approximately the same here as in Germany. If it is -as is the case today - cheaper in Sweden, we will increase our exports and have a surplus on the current account - which we have.

In addition, sufficient digital infrastructure should be put in place as it will considerably strengthen other modes of connectivity. The internet and mobile communication connectivity will radically change the ways in which businesses operate and people interact, as they drive productivity and efficiency of all sectors. It will also facilitate financial, transport and logistics services, as well as open door to knowledge sharing for people across the subregion. While digital technology is rapidly improving in some GMS countries, there remains large “digital divide” both within and between countries that should be narrowed. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The second aspect is trade and investment connectivity. Intra-regional trade and investment activities have continued to flourish, mainly thanks to complementarities among GMS economies. Many GMS countries have varied and abundant natural resources, young population and low labor costs, while the others can offer technological know-how and financing. With varying industry specializations, the diversity among GMS members has contributed to stronger regional supply chain network, and in the future should magnify national strengths towards a higher competiveness of the whole subregion. Amid thriving trade and investment, Thailand is well-positioned to serve the whole subregion, owing to our established legal framework, financing facility, infrastructure, logistics and IT capability. This can be seen by prospering business activities along the Thai border with other GMS countries. Last year, Thailand’s 25 border customs checkpoints with Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia registered impressive trade flows of more than 500 billion baht.
Mojmír Hampl: The EU banking industry Speaking points by Mr Mojmír Hampl, Vice Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the European Economic Congress “Section: Banking Industry in the EU”, Katowice, 15 May 2012. *  *  *  “Dzen dobry” – this is unfortunately the only thing I can credibly say in Polish, so the rest will be in my imperfect English. Thanks to the organizers for the invitation and for the opportunity to participate in such a distinguished panel. It is my first time here and I can only hope not the last one after I finish my presentation. Given the time constraints I will focus on a just a couple of quick points to stimulate the debate. My key point is: Let’s not repeat the same mistakes again and again. What I mean is this: Since the onset of the current crisis there has been a constant push for a more pan-European, or “federal-like”, approach to the regulation, supervision and potentially also resolution of the financial industry in the EU. The famous de Larosière report and all its consequences, such as the three new pan-European supervisory agencies, are just direct results of this push and this way of thinking. Some may recall that the Czech authorities were quite reluctant to accept this approach and also the final compromise which brought these agencies into existence, and we believe we had good reasons for this.

Is it a problem if cash disappears? This is of course a valid question. There are some groups in society who for various reasons find it difficult to accept, use or gain access to digital technology and different solutions need to be found for these groups. But for the majority of the population, the market appears able to supply payment solutions on its own. The question does require some careful thought, however. What is money, and what is required for money to function as such? What is the difference between various types of money? Why have central banks gained such a central role in the monetary system? These are practical but nevertheless almost philosophical questions that cannot be fully dealt with in a short speech. But allow me to nevertheless develop these questions a little further. Can “new money” function as an arithmetical unit, store of value and means of payment? It is difficult to define what money actually is. Put simply, one can say that it is an agreement or convention between individuals in a country or region that “something” will function as money. That “something” can be stones, shells, gold, pieces of paper or something else. What has been used as money has varied over time and between countries and cultures. But for money to function as such, it must be 3 [6]  able to guarantee three basic functions. Firstly, it shall function as (1) an arithmetical unit, that is, all prices shall be expressed in terms of this unit.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Chart 2: Housing market activity 20  Thousands per month  Thousands per month  160  18  140  16  120  14  Housing transactions(a) (right-hand scale)  12  100  10  80  8  60  6  40  Housing starts(b) (left-hand scale)  4 2  20  0  0 2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  Sources: Department for Communities and Local Government, HM Revenue and Customs, ONS and Bank calculations. (a) (b)  Number of residential property transactions in the United Kingdom with a value of £ or above. Number of permanent dwellings in the United Kingdom started by private enterprises up to 2011 Q1 (seasonally adjusted by Bank staff). Data for 2011 Q2 to 2013 Q4 have been grown in line with seasonally adjusted data for permanent dwelling starts by private enterprises in England. Chart 3: Business investment Percentage changes on a year earlier 30 ONS business investment  20 10 0 -10 -20 -30  Range of investment intentions surveys(a)  -40 2005  2007  2009  2011  2013  Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, ONS and Bank calculations. (a) Includes survey measures of investment intentions from the Bank’s Agents, BCC and CBI, scaled to match the mean and variance of four-quarter business investment growth since 1999. Measures weight together sectoral surveys using shares in real business investment.

4 Among the key lessons are: •  the critical importance of liquidity, alongside capital, in managing and regulating banks;  •  the limitations of the models which underpin the valuation and rating of structured products;  •  the importance of disclosure on risk exposures and valuation practices for the maintenance of confidence and effective market functioning in times of stress;  •  the need to alter the adverse incentives that had developed in the distribution chain for mortgages including for originators to maximise the volume of loans, for the  2  Arguably the cash flow projection of losses of $ billion comes closest to the sort of provisions banks would be making if the loans had been held on their banking books rather than securitised and sold on. On that basis the losses currently projected would be only 50% of the Savings and Loans losses as a share of US GDP. 3  See “Financial stability and depositor protection: strengthening the framework”, Consultation Document, January 2008. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/financialstabilityanddepositorprotection080130.pdf  4  Private sector initiatives have also been launched. There are European industry plans to compile information on a variety of instruments including ABCP, ABS and CDO and to disseminate this to investors and other interested parties on a regular basis. See “Summary of European Industry Commitments to the European Commission regarding Transparency in the European Securitisation Market” (www.europeansecuritisation.com/Industry-letter-08Feb08.pdf). The Institute of International Finance (IIF) also has an active agenda of work, covering risk management, liquidity, valuation, ratings, and transparency. (See http://www.iif.com/press/press+releases+2007/press+46.php).
And to look at the judgments and uncertainties we now face. Needless to say, as always, the “data are difficult to read”. When I arrived on the MPC, we were seeing signs of a strong recovery – stronger than anyone had forecast – that had started in the spring of 2013. Over the middle 2 quarters of that year, GDP had increased at an annualised rate of over 3%. The key drivers of the recovery seemed to be renewed consumer and business confidence due in no small part to the de-escalation of the Euro crisis and an easing in credit conditions. These in turn released pent up demand in the economy. The evidence suggested that this strong growth would continue into 2014. Forward looking economic indicators were very strong. The business surveys were pointing to continued growth at that pace. The squeeze in living standards from higher energy and food prices had started to ease. But, growth seemed to be almost entirely driven by consumer spending and the emerging recovery in the housing market. That strength in consumer spending did not come from growth in real incomes but from a large, two percentage point, drop in the savings rate. Business investment still appeared to be dragging on activity. So there were real question marks about whether this strong growth could be sustained. The MPC took an optimistic view. We forecast business investment would increase as the surveys suggested and play a bigger role in supporting growth.

The question as always is whether the risk of not waiting until the picture is clearer is outweighed by the risk of not acting in time. To sum up, some of what the MPC, at the point I joined it, thought would happen has happened. We have gone from recovery to expansion. Growth is slowing to something close to its pre-crisis average. Investment has made and is making an increasing contribution to growth. But the behaviour of unemployment, productivity and, most recently, pay continue to surprise and puzzle. More “normal” relationships between these variables may reassert themselves quickly and the pay rounds next year in particular should illuminate some of the picture. But there is also reason to believe that some changes, as in labour supply, may be longer lasting. When I started at the Bank this time last year, the MPC was half way through the process of putting together its latest set of forecasts for inflation and growth. That process is now again in train. The softening in the pay and inflation data, together with the weaker external environment, for me implies that we can afford to maintain the current degree of monetary stimulus for a longer period than previously thought. That of course will be a subject for the MPC to debate in the coming weeks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Monetary authorities have been intervening in the exchange rate market from time to time ‘to calm the situation’. This is well noted in research work going as far back as 19751, that it is unrealistic to envisage a perfectly free floating regime. BNM’s motivation in intervention operations is to smooth out the erratic swings in exchange rate that cause disorderly market conditions. Our principles remain that the market will continue to determine the exchange rate levels. Indeed, given our sizeable FX market, any intervention to 5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  determine a certain level is an exercise in futility, and would lead to costly distortions. In the final analysis, market forces should dictate exchange rate levels. But as a central bank, it is our duty to ensure that these forces are better balanced, and that the price mechanism is not distortionary or disorderly. Part IV – Initiatives to Build Resiliency and Liquidity It is also the central bank’s duty to continuously be at the forefront in developing the financial market. In September 2017, to facilitate greater access by non-residents to the onshore financial market and subject to registration, BNM had introduced flexibilities for non-residents to manage ringgit exposures arising from ringgit-denominated crude palm oil (CPO) contracts traded on Bursa Malaysia. To date, the flexibility has managed to attract a number of non-residents including major CPO players with projected hedging volume of RM20 billion per year. This will deepen the onshore financial market.

Yves Mersch: Medium to long-term priorities of Capital Markets Union (CMU) for the ECB/Eurosystem Panel remarks by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Eurofi conference, Luxembourg, 10 September 2015. *  *  *  While the Green Paper has set the right overall objectives of CMU and identified priorities for early action and the measures for the medium- to long-term, CMU needs to be pursued through a higher level of ambition to achieve greater capital markets development and deeper financial integration. 1. To bring about its expected benefits, the CMU should foster and result in a high level of financial integration in capital markets across the EU based on an adequate legal and regulatory framework. This would imply more steps towards greater harmonization of 1.  bankruptcy law,  2.  company law and  3.  taxation of financial products  that pose great political challenges. The aim is to ensure that investors have the same costs and equal access to finance irrespective of where they are located in the EU. Ultimately, the supervisory architecture will also warrant revision. The final destination in the path towards CMU will need to include the development of a single rulebook. These elements are key if we are to attain what has been ambitiously coined as CMU. 2. A schedule with clear milestones and deadlines in the upcoming action plan would facilitate implementation. 3. Market-led initiatives to promote capital markets are important but insufficient.
Figures for the first nine months of 2014 confirm that the sector has left behind the losses recorded in 2012. This better performance is underpinned by both the reduction in operating expenses and the lower provisioning needs derived from asset value adjustments. Net interest income, under downward pressure from limited business activity and low interest rates, increased moderately in 2014 compared with the same period in 2013. That said, this recovery is as yet modest and the downside pressures on the statement of income persist, meaning banks must persevere in containing their operating costs. iv. Solvency  Attesting to Spanish banks’ solvency were the results of the stress test conducted before the start-up of the SSM, in 2014. As you will recall, no Spanish bank had to submit a capitalisation plan at the end of the year, even under the worst scenario considered. That is to say, under a hypothetical highly adverse macroeconomic scenario, all the participating Spanish banks evidenced solvency levels above the thresholds demanded by the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority, the two institutions responsible for conducting the test. The latest available figures, for December 2014, confirm that the Spanish banking sector as a whole is operating with solvency levels that comfortably exceed the minimum regulatory levels required. Indeed, the top-quality common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stands at 11.8% for the sector as a whole, well above the minimum regulatory level of 4.5%. The total capital ratio was 13.6%, also above the regulatory level of 8%.

Our current forecast – which is scheduled for review in June, September and December – is for Spanish GDP to grow by 2.8% over the course of 2015, and by 2.7% in 2016. As to employment, the March figures reinforce our view that the unemployment rate should continue to fall, down to around 20% of the labour force by the fourth quarter of 2016. In Europe, the figures appear to support the view that the risks of deflation have been averted and that the economies of the Monetary Union and of the European Union as a whole are recovering and gaining momentum. If the Spanish economy is to benefit from these changes and likewise enjoy sustained higher growth, it will be essential to persevere with the reforms geared to adding market flexibility and boosting investment. Admittedly, however, the European and international financial context is unprecedented. The US exit from quantitative easing, with the interest rate rises that the markets expect, and the proliferation of negative interest rates on various financial and government debt markets, make for an unprecedented scenario that poses undoubted risks to financial stability with potentially highly volatile movements in financial asset prices. But if the risk of deflation in the euro area has finally been averted, and the US economic recovery continues apace, we may expect the financial markets to return to normal and yield curves to move back in step with normal, sustained economic growth. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
These benefits to financial stability complement the critical role that capital markets play in efficient resource allocation and in reducing overreliance on the banking sector for the mobilization of savings and financial intermediation. Additionally, diversified financial markets provide investors with alternative asset classes in times of financial stress. However, developing such markets is a long-term process that requires proper planning, appropriate prioritization and decisive action in several successive stages. Divert efforts from further development of financial markets Financial markets in EE’s have become more interlinked within the local and global financial systems, but they are still shallow and prone to sudden price movements and greater disruption that may undermine confidence in their integrity. It is therefore important that the ongoing fundamental reforms in emerging financial markets continue and that these longer term priorities are not forgotten as a consequence of predominant focusing on the policy response to the financial crisis and on the accomplishment of the international regulatory reform agenda. In this sense, a decisive action is needed to develop a domestic investor base, address market illiquidity, and improve key aspects of market infrastructure in order to mitigate risks to emerging economies’ financial stability. Ultimately, development of bond markets, money markets and government securities markets is the optimal route for further progress on this front. The assistance of international partners in this area is of a key importance and should not be neglected in conditions of growing challenges of different size and shape on both sides.

So even if inflation is now high, people can trust inflation to come back down to target. As a result, savers have come to demand a lower premium to compensate for expected inflation. But it is not just nominal interest rates that have fallen. If we adjust nominal interest rates for inflation and look at real interest rates, we can see that they have fallen too. Chart 2 shows the UK ten-year real interest rate, measured directly from index-linked bond prices. It is clear that the real interest rate is quite responsive to cyclical events, and that it has risen sharply over the past year. But beneath the volatility, there appears to have been a fairly steady downward trend from the 1990s at least up until the onset of the Covid pandemic. Bank of England  Page 6  Chart 2: The UK ten-year real rate has fallen over recent decades Ten-year zero coupon yield (spot interest rate) from UK index-linked gilts (a) Per cent 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4 1985  -4 1990  1995  2000  2005  2010  2015  2020  (a) Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P, Tradeweb and Bank calculations. Much has been said about this trend in risk-free interest rates.
Mervyn King: A Governor looks back – and forward Speech by Mr Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London, London, 19 June 2013. *  *  *  My Lord Mayor, Ladies and Gentlemen: Chancellor: thank you for those generous words. It has been a privilege to work with you over the past three years, a period of great change both at home and abroad. Your support for the Bank has been much appreciated at this end of town, and you have changed for the better the regulatory framework that oversees the City. But we both know that the past few years would have been much more difficult without the continual support of two people. And I am so pleased that both Frances and Barbara are with us tonight. And I’m particularly happy, George, that neither you nor I have to speak after either of them because experience suggests that we would suffer from the comparison. Lord Mayor: let me thank you too for presiding over my final Mansion House Dinner. We have enjoyed many musical evenings together, and Barbara and I look forward to sharing many more with you and Clare after you shed the chains of office later this year. The City has been extremely fortunate to benefit from your energy, drive and can-do attitude as Lord Mayor. I shall not detain you this evening with a retrospective examination of my time as Governor.

The proposed transfer fell through – apparently the Directors of the Bank viewed the Canadian as ‘too Keynesian’. What that tells us about his views on monetary activism I do not know. But it is perhaps worth noting that Towers’ first Deputy Governor was a Mr. Osborne, who agreed to move to Canada from the Bank of England for a spell of ‘up to 5 years’. Sadly, the partnership between the Canadian Governor and Mr. Osborne lasted only three years, before the latter departed. But, Chancellor, remember that history doesn’t always repeat itself. In Britain, and especially in the City, we have always welcomed talent from around the world in academic, business, artistic and sporting life. Why should central banking be different? George, you are to be congratulated on Mark’s appointment. I shall of course be sad to leave. But Governors come and Governors go – it is institutions, and the ideas they embody, that matter more. I leave behind a strong, independent, muchchanged Bank now focused on its two main responsibilities. The lessons of recent years have been learnt and it is up to us all to remember them. The test of our monetary arrangements is to see them work successfully under new leadership, none of whom were present at the creation. No doubt some things will change. No doubt some things need to change. After all one does not change an institution in order to set it in concrete. A successful institution, just like the City as a whole, always adapts to new circumstances.