samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Both figures are well below those of our regional peers, suggesting that we are relatively more immune to abrupt capital flights. On the external stability front, Thailand continues to perform well across most indicators. Last year, our current account recorded a large surplus of over 8% of GDP, and it is expected to grow further this year. Moreover, we continue to have more than enough international reserves to cover our foreign debt obligations. Our banking system continues to be strong, with ample capital buffer and cushion against bad loans. Their capital adequacy ratio continues to be well above the required level of 8.5%, and has increased slightly since my last address. Moreover, amid the gradual economic recovery, banks continue to accumulate high level of loan loss provision to cushion for deteriorating loan quality. The aggregate NPL figure remains manageable at around 2.7% and the combined profits of the banking sector remain sizeable despite being slightly trimmed by the additional loan-loss provisioning. Ladies and Gentlemen, Maintaining sufficient buffers have proved essential in coping with the financial turbulence of the past year, as they helped to shield the economy from facing the full impacts of external shocks. Besides the financial system, the real economy has also been a beneficiary of stable financial environment. In the first half of this year, the Thai economy expanded by 3.4%.

This has been a critically important factor in alleviating the impact of the pandemic on the labour market and on banks’ lending. We judge that the economy still needs that support if the recovery is to continue and strengthen further. Ambitious fiscal measures by national governments were complemented by a € billion European safety net. And with the Next Generation EU fund, Europe took a decisive step forwards as the crisis evolved. For the first time, a common budgetary instrument at European level can be used to complement fiscal stabilisers at national level, even if it is currently only temporary. As a result, we now have an aggregate policy mix in which fiscal and monetary policy reinforce each other in supporting the recovery, and thus underpin medium-term price stability. The case for jointly shaping Europe’s future We must now carry this positive momentum forwards. It is time for Europe to move beyond the initial priority of containing the immediate impact of the crisis and shape a common vision for its future. The pandemic has the potential to accelerate trends that were already emerging before the crisis; trends that will lead to structural changes in the global economy. In a world where technological change and geopolitical tensions are transforming the geography of value chains, we should make full use of the size and diversity of the European economy. If we strengthen Economic and Monetary Union and deepen the Single Market, we do not only benefit all Europeans by improving the way we produce, distribute and consume.
6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  resulting in a surge in investment expenditure and a corresponding endogenous increase in inflation. But at a later stage, when the real effects of structural reforms show through, supply would catch up and inflation pressures would abate. For surplus countries this would, in my view, be a win-win outcome, thus setting the right domestic incentives to adjust. In some surplus countries the output gap is currently closing in the presence of low potential growth and a significant savings-investment imbalance. With the policy measures I have mentioned, they would instead be able to move towards a new, winwin equilibrium. An equilibrium that would not only be consistent with the external balance, but also tackle the interrelated domestic challenges of weak private and public investment and low potential growth. At the same time, this adjustment would be “self-limiting”, in the sense that upward pressure on inflation would be temporary and would not fundamentally undermine the country’s external competitiveness. How rebalancing plays out between surplus and deficit countries will determine the role of the euro area in global growth. As crisis-hit countries need to run continued surpluses to reduce their net liabilities, the euro area as whole will continue, unless the surpluses of other countries fall, to run a large surplus with the rest of the world. With weakening demand in emerging markets, this essentially puts the burden of generating global growth squarely on the shoulders of the United States.

We can only strengthen the euro area, to the benefit of all, if all member countries imagine themselves in comparable positions behind a veil of ignorance. This is why resetting all our economies onto a path of sustainable rebalancing is essential. Sustainable rebalancing is key to reducing risks. It is key to creating the preconditions for all euro area countries to stabilise, grow and converge. And it is key to laying the groundwork for Economic and Monetary Union to be completed. The euro area has been going through such a rebalancing process for several years now. So what I would like to do in my remarks is review where we stand today. How far has rebalancing come? Is that rebalancing sustainable? And, if not, what do we need to do to make it sustainable? These questions do not only matter for the euro area. They matter for the rest of the world as well, since rebalancing has important implications for global growth. If every economy were to react to their domestic challenges by exporting their slack, it would only trigger a race to the bottom. Therefore, only through achieving a truly sustainable rebalancing can the euro area start generating rather than absorbing global demand. Dimensions of sustainable rebalancing So what is sustainable rebalancing? There are four aspects we need to consider. The first is that external and internal rebalancing are twin concepts. For rebalancing to become truly sustainable, progress on both fronts is required.
17  Smith recognised this too: “though the wages of the workman are commonly paid to him in money, his real revenue, like that of all other men, consists, not in money, but in the money’s worth; not in the metal pieces, but in what can be got for them” Wealth of Nations, I,ii,p295. 4  BIS Review 102/2006  can’t force people to use paper money, although after the French Revolution the Jacobins had a try. They made it a capital offence to use commodities as money! This was a desperate and unsustainable action resulting from the Jacobin policy of debasing their paper money – the Assignat – to make up for a collapse in tax revenues and to finance a war against Prussia. A more sensible solution is to create institutions in which we can have trust. On the front of this Bank of England £ note is written “I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of Twenty Pounds”. In essence, the promise is that the “stuff” that you can buy with this note does not change much from one year to the next. In other words, the general purchasing power of the note is broadly stable – we have price stability. Our ability to maintain price stability depends upon an institutional framework which is expected to persist. That depends on all of us acting collectively – the value of a nation’s money is inherently a political choice. Inflation arises when the collective political commitment to maintain price stability weakens.

And we understand the need for social institutions to constrain our actions. Since Smith, economists have underplayed the importance of institutions, although there have been notable exceptions such as Douglas North and Ronald Coase. Over the centuries, theories of a competitive market economy have been refined. From these theories flows the remarkable result that, under certain conditions, the pursuit by each person of their individual self interest leads to a more efficient outcome for society as a whole. That work reached its apogee in the post-war work by Kenneth Arrow and Gerard Debreu. Those economic models are, however, silent about many of the institutions that are fundamental to the results. 12 But without the appropriate institutions we tend to anarchy not prosperity. The challenge facing us is to design and maintain the right set of institutions or  8  Theory of Moral Sentiments, II,ii,3.3,p86. 9  In her 2002 Reith lectures “A Question of Trust”, Onora O’Neill argued that in order to interact with others, both as individuals and institutions, trust plays a crucial role. 10  Wealth of Nations, I,11,2,p26. 11  Rothschild (2001) puts Smith’s writings in the context of the Enlightenment and, while pointing to the complexity of Smith’s views and his caution in expressing them in public, paints an overall picture of a man who is not best described as a split personality. 12  Economists have grappled with the challenge of understanding worlds in which there are not markets for everything.
But as the Chinese saying goes, "A thousand miles begins with a single step" (). We are grateful that you have all chosen to join us to take important first step in this meaningful e-HKD journey. I know you're all eagerly waiting to hear about the potential use cases, so I'll give the floor to each pilot group to share their creative ideas. Thank you. 3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

Transition to a new investment financing pattern  In the context of structural excess savings over investment, which characterised the period 2000-2013, the structure of investment financing in Algeria during 2008-2014 showed a very high level of self-financing (84 percent), particularly with regard to the Government’s and the national oil company’s investments. Investment in the economy (excluding the hydrocarbon sector) has also been, to a large extent, self-financed (59.7 percent over 2008-2014), while the financial savings of private firms and households have significantly increased. In particular, the years 2010 and 2011 recorded a  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  substantial increase in self-financing (71.4 percent and 24.1 percent respectively), which contributed to the significant recovery of investments in the non-hydrocarbon sectors. In the meantime, the relative share of medium and long term domestic bank credit in the financing of investments in the productive non-hydrocarbon sectors increased substantially between 2012 and 2014, up from 38.4 percent to 45.2 percent. Reflecting dynamic medium and long term bank financing, credit to the economy recorded strong growth in 2013 (20.3 percent) and 2014 (26.1 percent), following already high growth in 2012 (15.1 percent). Improved credit conditions, together with Government support measures with regard to credit to SMEs, which improved their access to bank credit as of 2010, have contributed to the sustained expansion of overall credits to the private sector, which recorded an average annual growth rate of 19.4 percent over the period 2001–2014.
13  Remarkably, an excessively low repo rate was something that Dagens Nyheter’s editorial pages warned against in December 2009, when Lars Svensson entered a reservation against holding the repo rate at 0.25 per cent and advocated cutting it to zero and they commented on his “input to the Executive Board of the Riksbank being reminiscent of a captain slavishly following his nautical chart, even when the ship hits an iceberg. It was one thing to cut the repo rate in an acute situation during the crisis to ward off a depression. But now that the economy has begun to recover, a zero interest rate would only add fuel to the housing price fire.” (See Wolodarski, 2009). 14  Of course, some measures were taken earlier, but the introduction of the framework must nevertheless be regarded as an important condition for being able to conduct macroprudential policy systematically. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Unfortunately, I believe one must accept that this cannot be quantified in a very precise way. I can only note for my own part that if I had not found the developments in household debt and on the housing market problematic, I would have advocated a somewhat more expansionary policy – but definitely not that the repo rate should remain at 0.25 ever since the crisis. But it is difficult to be more precise than this.

Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 3 Price developments for houses and apartments Index: January 2005=100  Source: Valueguard  Figure 4 Lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change 14  14  12  12  10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0 06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  Note. Refers to the MFIs’ lending to Swedish households including HIOs (households non-profit organisations), with a home as collateral, adjusted for reclassification and bought and sold loans. Source: Statistics Sweden  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  Figure 5 GDP per capita and employment rate compared with pre-crisis figures Change in per cent 2007–2013 and 2008Q1–2014Q2 6 GER  6 JPN  2  GBR BEL  Employment rate  -2 ITA  NED NOR  FIN  -6  FRA EU  SUI AUT NZL SWE CAN AUS  2  USA  -6  -2  DEN POR  -10  -10  IRL -14  -14 ESP  -18  -18 GRE  -22  -22 -23  -18  -13  -8  GDP per capita  -3  2  7  Note. GDP per capita, annual data, constant 2005 USD (adjusted for purchasing power parity), 2007–2013; Employment rate, 15–64 years, 2008Q1–2014Q2. Seasonally-adjusted data.
According to an IPCC study, everyday behavioural changes by people which reduce demand for energy – such as adjusting temperature settings in buildings and reducing air travel – can cumulatively lead to substantial reductions in carbon emissions. People across the world are increasingly concerned about climate change and want to do something about it. Climate change is inspiring people to step up to a higher cause, to take collective action for the common good of our planet. Singaporeans too are becoming more environmentally conscious. According to a 2020 study by the Institute of Policy Studies, 61% of Singaporeans surveyed felt that protecting the environment should be prioritised even if it results in slower economic growth and some loss of jobs. More individuals are taking climate-friendly actions, motivated by a desire to preserve a liveable world for future generations. There are many things we can do as individuals to minimise our impact on the climate. We can do energy audits of our homes to identify ways to be more energy efficient. We can reduce food and plastic waste. We can become a zero-waste nation and a circular economy, where we use less resources and re-cycle resources. We can eat lower in the food chain and shift towards more plant-based protein. University of Oxford researchers have found that reducing meat and dairy products from our diet can help to shrink our carbon footprint from food by up to 73%. We can drive less and take public transport more.

The adjustment of external debt will no doubt require continued current-account surpluses in the years ahead, which presupposes that the krona is weaker than its long-term equilibrium level. Moreover, the domestic demand trend needs to be balanced to prevent it from generating unduly high inflation. As central government debt is sizeable, it is also important that fiscal restraint continues, with the focus on debt repayment. However, a continuation of current-account surpluses of the magnitude we have seen in recent years is not to be expected. As domestic demand strengthens, the economy approaches full capacity utilisation and the monetary stance accordingly becomes less expansionary, the krona should appreciate, accompanied by diminishing surpluses on the current account. You would, of course, like to know the rate at which the krona would be linked to the euro in the event of Sweden opting to join the monetary union. Unfortunately it is still too early to answer that question. The rate will depend, for example, on Sweden’s competitive position relative to the countries that have already adopted the euro. We would also have reason to aim for a central rate that puts the Swedish economy on the right track and promotes a continued adjustment to internal and external balance. The optimum central rate might differ somewhat—though probably not all that much—from the market rate in the event of Sweden joining ERM2 if, for instance, Sweden’s monetary policy and cyclical position were to deviate from the euro countries’ prior to Swedish actually joining the monetary union.
To reduce the risk that the results are portfolio-specific, we construct the maximum number of combinations of portfolios of different sizes (ranging between two and 100 assets per portfolio) using daily returns. For each of these sets of portfolios, we forecast VaRs for the period 2005–2012 using the EWMA and GARCH models. To keep things simple, these models are all estimated over a common sample period. The expected losses can then be compared with actual losses, allowing “violation ratios” for portfolios of differing sizes to be calculated. The results are summarised in Chart 19. For very simple portfolios of two or three assets, the performance of the simple and complex models is not so different. As the number of assets increases, however, the simple model progressively out-performs the complex one. That is a direct result of the uncertainties associated with over-fitting the complex model relative to the simple one. The message from these experiments is clear and consistent. Complexity of models or portfolios generates robustness problems when understanding a complex financial system over plausible sample sizes. More than that, simplicity rather than complexity may be better capable of solving these robustness problems. (7)  Public policy – more or less? In forgone output, financial crises can be as costly as wars. The public policy issue, then, is whether the war on crises is best waged with the weapons of the past. Einstein wrote that: “The problems that exist in the world today cannot be solved by the level of thinking that created them”.

Against that background the Bank is continuing to work constructively with the ECB though its membership of the General Council, while at the same time we are working with the Government and the financial sector to ensure that we are technically prepared for transition to the euro if and when that is what the Government, Parliament and the people of this country decide. The build-up to the euro roughly coincided with the accelerating advance of information and communications technology that is sweeping across the global economy. This development, too, can give rise to technical concerns - the Bank and FSA cooperated, for example, in helping to ensure that the financial sector was properly prepared to combat the Millennium bug. But its ramifications go very much wider. We are having to monitor very closely the potential impact of the “new economy” on productivity growth and what that may mean for monetary stability; and we are having to keep a very close eye on financial market volatility as investors struggle to assess its impact on relative stock values for its effect on financial stability. In the financial sector in particular the new technology is perhaps the main driver of innovation and change. It makes possible the introduction of new services and products, and is radically altering the way in which existing services are delivered - often at a fraction of the initial cost and, potentially, at lower risk.
The Bank will continue to collaborate with the industry in the area of public education and awareness. The Bank will be working with both bank and non-bank players to develop common promotional messages that provide “do’s and don’ts” for e-payment transactions. This will ensure a more cohesive communication strategy to amplify the impact on the public at large. Concluding remarks When I started, I highlighted the lack of public awareness on the payment system despite its importance as one of the key pillars of the financial services industry. Times have changed. Widespread digitisation, disruptive technologies and heightened competition have reshaped and magnified the potential of payment services. We should be bold in taking advantage of this great potential to deliver e-payments for all and realise the aspiration of making Malaysia a cashless society. Before I close, I would like to congratulate the winners of today’s ceremony. May our achievements today inspire even greater ones tomorrow. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches

As I have mentioned earlier while talking about global risks, forecasts for our largest trade partner, the European Union, suggest that it would take a long time for foreign demand to return to pre-crisis levels. 4  BIS Review 79/2010  Industrial production has been increasing moderately since March 2009. According to the latest Business Tendency Survey conducted by the CBT, the moderate recovery in orders both from domestic and foreign markets continues. On the expectations side, there is improvement both in the real sector and consumer confidence indices. Nevertheless, the stillweak foreign demand and the fact that Turkey’s exports predominantly rely on products that are susceptible to cyclical developments are retarding a rebound in industrial production. Uncertainties regarding aggregate demand urge firms operating in the manufacturing industry to take a cautious stance and to be more reluctant about inventory building compared to the periods of strong growth. The biggest headache for Turkey, unemployment, assumed a slight recovery trend in the third quarter of 2009 as the economy started to generate employment opportunities again. Industrial employment, which is the sector that is most severely affected by the crisis and became the main driver of contraction in non-farm employment, started to recover at a moderate pace. The services and construction sector supported non-farm employment as well. Despite the recent partial recovery, the unemployment rate is still quite high compared to the pre-crisis period. This high unemployment rate curbs the consumption demand as well.