samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Hora’s business thrives, Tempus’s dies. In other networks, hierarchy is the result not of natural evolution but human intervention. For example, the optimal distribution of trees has been shown to comprise contiguous patches separated by firebreaks. 36 The firebreaks created by man generate hierarchy in this system. The same man-made firebreaks are present in epidemiological networks, such as the imposition of travel bans following the SARS outbreak in Asia or the prohibition of animal movement during the foot and mouth epidemic in the UK. 37 All of this has relevance to the future structure and design of the financial network. What is second nature to the watch-maker needs to become second nature to the watchdog. Four topical examples can be used to illustrate the importance of these structural issues for financial network design. First, the past decade has seen an explosion in the dimensionality, and thus complexity, of the financial web. Among others things, that has exacerbated the system’s robust-yet-fragile characteristics and uncertainty about counterparty pricing within the network. Both have been much in evidence recently. Yet there are structural means of addressing these combined problems at a stroke. The stroke is infrastructure. Central counterparties (CCPs) are intended to deal with precisely these problems. They interpose themselves between every trade. In this way, a highdimension web is instantly compressed to a sequence of bilateral relationships with the central counterparty – a simple hub-and-spokes. The lengthy network chain is condensed to a single link.

The oceans provide a rich and lengthy test-bed of the links between diversity and robustness. Over the past millennium, studies of coastal eco-systems reveal some dramatic patterns. 18 For around 800 years, between the years 1000-1800AD, fish stocks and species numbers were seemingly stable and robust. Since then, almost 40% of fish species across the world’s major  18  The results here are based on Worm et al (2006). BIS Review 53/2009  9  coastal eco-systems have “collapsed”, defined here as a fall in population of greater than 90%. That is systemic by any metric. There appear to be many environmental reasons for this collapse, some natural, others manmade. But the distribution of this collapse across eco-systems is revealing. For species-rich – that is, diverse – eco-systems the rate of collapse has been as low as 10%; for species-poor eco-systems, as high as 60%. Diverse coastal eco-systems have proved to be markedly more robust, measured over century spans. Results for large marine eco-systems suggest a similar picture. Over the period 1950-2003, the incidence of collapsed fisheries declines exponentially with species-diversity. 19 Diversity also appears to increase the resilience of fisheries – that is, their capacity to recover – in the event of collapse. These results reappear throughout marine eco-systems, “in coral reefs in Jamaica and on rocky shores in Panama”. 20 And they do not appear to be unique to marine eco-systems.
However, it is important to distinguish between the role of resource utilisation as a target variable and its role as an indicator of inflationary pressures. With regard to its role as target variable, it is the unemployment gap between the rate of unemployment and the sustainable rate that is relevant. But with regard to its role as an indicator of inflationary pressures and as a basis for forecasts for wages and inflation, various short-term situations, shortages and bottlenecks may be significant, but will not normally affect the sustainable rate of unemployment. One way of expressing this is to say that the unemployment gap in relation to the sustainable rate of unemployment is a target variable, but that the gap in relation to the short-term equilibrium rate of unemployment may be an indicator of inflationary pressures that is important in forecasting the inflation gap, the other target variable. The most recent decision The reason I chose to enter a reservation against the repo-rate path chosen by the majority at the latest monetary policy meeting is that, in my opinion, it does not represent a wellbalanced monetary policy. This is because the repo-rate path adopted by the majority entails a CPIF forecast under the target and an unemployment forecast higher than a reasonable sustainable rate throughout almost the entire forecast period. I believe that target attainment can be improved for both inflation and unemployment with a lower repo-rate path.

The United States also has substantial structural current account and budget deficits. Sweden has been exposed to a major demand shock with a collapse of exports and a loss of demand in the export sector. Exports are now recovering again. Sweden does not appear to have any structural problems in the finance sector, or in any other sector, and has no structural budget or current account deficits. This being the case, I think one could claim that the development of Sweden’s potential GDP should in fact be better than that of the United States, not worse. The difference in potential GDP underlines the difficulties and the element of arbitrariness in these calculations. Figure 6 compares the Riksbank’s estimates and forecasts for potential GDP from two different points in time, namely September 2008 shortly before the investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and February 2011. The September 2008 forecast for Sweden’s potential GDP is rather similar to the CBO’s latest forecast for potential GDP in the United States in Figure 5. We can see in Figure 6 that the February 2011 assessment of potential GDP in the longer term is approximately 4 per cent below the corresponding assessment in September 2008. Why should a pure demand shock in the absence of structural problems lead to such a significantly lower potential GDP in the longer term?
Human resource development functions is integral to the talent management process and in supporting the human capital management strategy. Of equal importance is that this should occur at all levels in the organisation. In essence, the accountability for talent development requires concerted efforts throughout the organization and needs to be embedded as part of the working culture that is communicated, shared and understood at all levels. While the need for human capital development is apparent, what is less apparent are the appropriate methods and policies that should be adopted to advance human capital development. The financial services industry needs to identify the appropriate strategic direction for human capital development. Attention need to be given to the entry level, to the specialists and to the senior management levels. This would benefit from greater industryuniversity linkages which is a major channel through which the talent requirement and talent gap can be narrowed. The industry involvement in the curriculum design and delivery will ensure graduates are equipped with the relevant knowledge and skills that meet the requirements of the industry. Participation by the industry players may be in the reform of the academic curriculum and methodologies and in providing other forms of practical support to the institutions of higher learning. This will contribute directly towards meeting the human capital needs for the future. The quality of human capital is the cutting edge of competitiveness.

The Bank’s role is recognised in the Memorandum of Understanding agreed between the Bank, the Treasury and FSA and published in the Autumn of 1997, which sets out how the three organisations are to cooperate in monitoring the UK financial system. To this end, the MOU established a tripartite Standing Committee which meets monthly to discuss issues of current concern; and cooperation is further enhanced by the fact that I sit on the FSA Board and Howard Davies is a Member of Court. Coordination is also important internationally. The Asian Crisis in 1998 demonstrated how quickly shocks could pass between markets. One response from the international financial community was the establishment of the Financial Stability Forum, a body similar in purpose to the Standing Committee. The Forum meets semi-annually, bringing together central banks, regulators and finance ministries from developed and developing countries, to discuss the threats to financial stability. The Bank is an active participant in the FSF, along with HMT and FSA. Having described the organisational structure, I want to turn now to the four broad areas where the Bank is involved in financial stability. The first is the analysis of developments in G10 and emerging market economies and financial markets and the potential impact on financial stability. Macro-prudential surveillance is at the core of the Bank’s financial stability effort, bringing together detailed knowledge of the macroeconomic environment and financial markets to identify potential vulnerabilities in financial systems in aggregate.
Unnecessary fluctuations in the real economy can then be avoided. As I  BIS Review 98/2000  4  mentioned earlier, the Riksbank has therefore clarified that if higher or lower inflation is judged to be a transitory phenomenon, attempts to counter it immediately and fully are sometimes not desirable. From these clarifications it will be clear that in the conduct of monetary policy we do in fact also take the real economic consequences directly into account. It should be underscored, however, that making allowances of this kind does presuppose a basic confidence in monetary policy - that different economic agents count on our fulfilling the inflation target, if not immediately then at least in the near future. There has been a discussion recently, among economists as well as in the public debate, as to whether the interest rate should be raised already even though a threat to the inflation target is not apparent in the coming two years. In that way we could avoid a build-up of imbalances that in the longer run might necessitate a drastic repo rate increase and thereby expose the real economy to major strains. I have no objections to this view in principle. We can indeed take such matters into account in our intellectual framework. It is important, however, to be clear about which imbalances one is referring to and what real economic effects they might have.

This immediately raises the difficulty of determining when an asset market can be said to be over-valued. And if one does decide to intervene, how can one  5  BIS Review 98/2000  be sure of deflating the bubble in an orderly manner? Just mentioning these two problems often leads those concerned with central banking to conclude that intervention is not advisable. I should like to broaden the argument. In addition to the objective of price stability, as the central bank of Sweden the Riksbank is responsible by law for the payment system and financial stability. Without prejudicing these aims, we should also strive to support economic policy’s other goals, such as high growth and employment. This means, for instance, that we should take pains to avoid unnecessary fluctuations in output and employment. So if we see what we believe to be mounting financial imbalances and judge that in time they will jeopardise a stable economic development, I consider that in principle, at least, there is a case for acting with the repo rate even if we do not perceive a direct threat to the inflation target. The difficulty in practice lies in deciding when an intervention is called for. To some extent, this is made easier by the risks being normally inherent in the growth of credit in the economy rather than in the actual development of asset prices. In conclusion I can mention that the Riksbank has been working on these matters a great deal in recent years.
Without that, the financial industry cannot be effective in performing its key roles. Cultivating these three traits emphasized by Onora O’Neill—competence, reliability and honesty —will help enable you to have a personally fulfilling career. The best doctors or lawyers do their work not only because it pays well, but because it is interesting and contributes an important service to society. I hope you feel the same about what you do. And if you don’t, I urge you to consider how your industry can become more professionally fulfilling. What is needed for you to feel better about your work, to sleep more soundly, to worry less about the risk posed to your business by potential misconduct? Your professional fulfillment will grow if you also contribute to promoting these qualities in others —that is, by helping to improve the culture of financial services. It is easier to be smart, dependable and trustworthy when you are surrounded by other people who also fit that description. My second message is to reject the idea that a separate regime of ethics or morality applies in banking. I’m sure you have heard this, or perhaps even thought this, at some point in your career. 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  Let it end there. We often teach our children by asking them if they would engage in that type of behavior at home. This is good professional advice as well. Bankers have been criticized for their ethical and moral shortcomings. That criticism has legitimate grievances at its roots.

In this regard, private sector’s improvement in technology and innovations, in tandem with other infrastructure development, can become a tailwind to support the GMS to overcome technology stagnation and provide a competitive edge to the private sector. This should also enhance the intra- regional trade and investment capabilities. 13. Last but not least, financial system can act as a blood-vein that nurtures the economy. We might not realize the necessity of having a healthy blood- vein system in our body. But if there is a blockage, one could experience a detrimental malfunction of the brain, and stroke may occur. The same applies to our economy; efficient and accessible financial system will ensure smooth and solid transformation of the economy. At this juncture, financial institutions are a key in keeping the efficacy and health of the financial system in check. On one hand, financial prudence through enhanced risk supervision and management will provide a strong backdrop for improvement in financial system. On the other hand, the favorable financial system should also be underpinned by financial inclusion, which is analogous to having the blood-vein reaches all organs in our bodies. As I previously pointed out, increasing access to financial services will bolster economic dynamism where vast financial opportunities can be better tapped by private sectors. Ladies and gentlemen, 14. To end my remarks today, allow me to reiterate that these key enablers will be necessary to support the areas of transformation for the GMS.
Hence, in the second half of the year, when the buildup of government reserves ground to a halt, a considerable part of export revenue, if unspent to reduce external debt, ultimately settled in bank accounts as extra foreign currency liquidity. Incidentally, this is why the response of the foreign exchange rate to the purchase suspension decision was fairly muted. The market essentially continued to expect their resumption and accumulated assets. Next year, our baseline scenario provides for a return to the 2017–2018 situation, with a significant amount of oil revenues being used to rebuild international reserves and the private sector’s capital outflow declining. Importantly, in this logic we do not foresee a strong response of either the current balance or the foreign currency exchange to resumed purchases. To conclude, let me reiterate that the Bank of Russia will explore the need for further upgrades to the key rate, taking into account inflation and economic developments against the forecast, as well as the risks of external conditions and the response of financial markets. In the current context it is crucial that our approach remains conservative as we assess risks and conduct monetary policy. Inflation stays close to 4%. More so, it has never climbed above this figure since the second half of 2017. Although the rise in inflation early next year is set to be driven by transient factors, considering the need to limit their negative effects and ensure a speedy return of inflation to 4%, it is critical that the response of monetary policy is well-timed.

Elevated inflation expectations may change consumer behaviour and reduce the propensity to save. In these circumstances, firms will have an opportunity to raise retail prices even when the effect of one-off factors is exhausted. If this spiral is set off, inflationary pressure will rise and inflation may hold above the 4% target for a long period of time. This will require a considerable and enduring monetary policy tightening. The task is to reduce as much as possible the risks of this scenario materialising. In addition, full-year inflation will total about 4% in 2018. This means that we are entering the new year without the inflation buffer we had and with a substantially upgraded inflation forecast for next year. This is why we are raising the key rate. At this moment in time, in the context of strengthened risks, it is crucial that we remain proactive. This approach reflects a key inflation targeting policy principle. We look to the outrunning response of monetary policy to enable us to constrain the secondary effects and ensure inflation declines after its temporary rise. We admit that between March and April inflation could exceed 5.5% or even peak to 6%. Its acceleration in the first quarter of 2019 is set to precede its subsequent slowdown. Should we take action to curb the secondary effects, beginning from the second to third quarter of 2019, seasonally adjusted quarterly price growth will total 1 pp, that is, it will be consistent with 4% annualised inflation.
That underlying activity - based upon expert and objective assessment of prospective profitability relative to potential risk, clearly can, in itself, make a significant difference to the productive capacity - the sustainable rate of growth - of the wider economy. In addition, of course, financial intermediaries provide essential banking, insurance and other services, without which the non-financial economy would find it impossible to function. Of course it is true that financial intermediaries are motivated by profit. Prospective profitability is the measure by which they decide how to direct resources to their most productive use, which is, as I say, their essential economic function. Moreover, they are for the most part lending, or investing, or advising on the investment of, funds which ultimately belong to others, and they have to aim to maximise the return on those funds in the interest of their customers, as well as on their own account, if they are to stay in business for the longer term. Recent international history is littered with instances in which misallocation of financial resources to non-productive investment, followed by disruption of the financial system, has resulted in massive economic and consequent social damage. It was a major factor, for example, behind the Asian crisis and its aftermath.

The Kingdom has maintained high sovereign credit ratings as assessed by global rating agencies for its financial solvency. The last rating was AA- awarded by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch for long-term credit rating in national and foreign currency, with a stable outlook . Confidence is still great and solid that strong growth and comprehensive development of the Saudi economy will continue under the wise leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques is well-known for his concern about his citizens, and he is determined to closely follow up their needs, including reduction of poverty, supporting Social Security, approving salaries increase & cost of living allowance, confirming wage earners, addressing the housing issue, supporting specialized development funds, etc. and other decisions aiming at improving citizen’s living conditions, which he deems as the objective and tool of the development process. We pray to Almighty Allah that there will be many happy returns of this dear national occasion for years and years for the citizens of this country, hoping that the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and his Crown Prince will continue to enjoy full health and wellbeing, with the Kingdom enjoying security and stability, to continue the development process, under our wise leadership. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
I will explain why. But first I would like to describe very briefly what characterised the crisis. The characteristics of the financial crisis I have experienced two crises in the past, one in the late 1970s and early 1980s and one at the beginning of the 1990s, and have seen them both mainly from the perspective of the Ministry of Finance. When I came to the Riksbank I believed that the worst crises were behind us. However, this was not the case. Instead we experienced a third crisis, which in international terms was the most severe crisis since World War II. The financial crisis hit Sweden and the rest of Europe with full force in September 2008, when the major US investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. It became much more difficult for the banks to fund their operations as the financial markets were not functioning normally. Some markets were not functioning at all. The central banks took on the role of lenders of last resort and several governments provided guarantees and support programmes for the banking sector. Monetary policy also quickly became more expansionary in the United States, the euro area and other countries. In addition, a number of central banks adopted measures to also push down the longer-term interest rates. There was also a shift towards a more expansionary fiscal policy. Despite extensive policy stimulus, the financial crisis led to a severe downturn in the United States and Europe and in developed countries in other parts of the world.

Last, the shock experienced by the real sector will not overcome without leaving traces in the financial market and in the indicators of the banking sector’s business, as well. The dimensions and complexity of the crisis demand for a coherent and comprehensive response. Absolutely, public authorities have the primary role to play in this regard. The fiscal, monetary and financial stimulus, are essential instruments to boost the aggregate demand, mitigate the liquidity problems and avoid the long-term consequences of the crisis. Nevertheless, firms and banking sector should not consider themselves as passive consumers of the economic policies, but as exceptional actors in our efforts to resolve the crisis. The stimulus of public authorities could be neither effective nor potentially sufficient, without the adequate reaction of both firms and banking industry. Dear guests, Allow me to introduce briefly the reaction of public authorities, and further to share with you our vision on the challenges and role that the Albanian firms and banking sector should play. 1. Reaction by public authorities In the face of the unprecedented health emergency, the focus of public policies – in Albania and globally- was the undertaking of severe social distancing measures. Naturally, these measures have hit the economic activity and have demanded for a comprehensive easing of fiscal, monetary and financial policies. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Fiscal policy – rightfully- has been given a primary role in facing the situation.