samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Navigating through volatility with long-term focus Speech by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Association of International Banks (AIB) Dinner Speaker Series, Bangkok, 29 July 2013. *  *  *  Excellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank the Association of International Banks for inviting me to give a talk this evening. It is my honor and pleasure to be here for the prominent institution that has its presence in Thailand since 1996. The association’s work and efforts have contributed significantly towards the strength of the Thai banking system as well as economic prosperity here in this country. For this special evening, I would like to share with you my views on the recent economic and financial challenges, as well as the Bank of Thailand’s role in safeguarding economic and financial stability. Navigating through volatility Over the past few years, we have gone through many economic surprises. Last year alone the Thai economy had to face several challenges, both inside and outside Thailand – recovering from the devastating floods and coping with fragile global economy. And just a few months ago we only just started talking about a pick-up in global growth, driven mainly by robust demand in emerging markets. Today, circumstances have changed, and we are facing with unexpected slowdown in emerging markets as well as the prospect of Fed QE tapering. As far as global economic environment is concerned, I think we are going to see a lot more surprises.

That of course is cold comfort to the manufacturing businesses that were most affected, and to the regions - including the North West, where there is a relatively high concentration of manufacturing business. And you were severely affected last year too by the impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on agriculture and tourism. The frustrating thing for us has been that there was very little that we at the Bank could do through monetary policy - or indeed that the Government could do - to address the problems at source. That’s fairly obvious when we’re talking about the weakening of demand in the other major economies. Some people have suggested that we might have done more to weaken the exchange rate particularly against the generally weak euro - by cutting our interest rates more aggressively, but it really isn’t as simple as that: exchange rates don’t respond predictably to relative interest rates certainly in the short term; if anything in recent conditions cutting them further could even have had a perverse effect. What we were able to do, given that inflation was under control, by cutting interest rates as we did last year, was to try to compensate for the external weakness by stimulating domestic demand growth here in the UK. Given the weakness of business confidence, and therefore investment, reflecting the external pressures, that meant essentially stimulating consumer demand.
You should make sure that any other reference rate you use meets similarly high standards, and is fully transparent about how it’s calculated, what it’s based on, and exactly how it complies with the IOSCO principles. The ARRC and ISDA also went through an extensive public consultation process in constructing their recommended fallbacks that will kick in when LIBOR becomes unusable. The overriding goal of that process was to minimize value transfer and ensure as much as possible that the transition did not disadvantage borrowers or lenders, or one side of a LIBOR swap. And those are the same https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/hel200929  4/6  30/09/2020  The LIBOR Countdown Has Not Stopped - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK  fallbacks that will apply under the ARRC’s proposed New York legislation. Anyone considering using different fallbacks should likewise keep those concerns top of mind. Making it Official Before I wrap up, I’d like to talk about the role of the official sector in the transition. It might seem at times that our role has consisted mostly of forming working groups and giving speeches where we harangue market participants to just get on with it already—kind of like this one. Of course, as I mentioned, the New York Fed has stepped up by producing SOFR, which is key to the transition.

15 Transition from LIBOR: Credit Sensitivity Group Workshops; see also Nathaniel Wuerffel, Transitioning Away from LIBOR:  Understanding SOFR's Strengths and Considering the Path Forward. 16 Final Rule on Margin and Capital Requirements for Covered Swap Entities. 17 Facilitating the LIBOR Transition (Regulation Z); see also the CFPB’s updated Consumer Handbook on Adjustable Rate  Mortgages and LIBOR Transition FAQs. 18 FASB Issues Guidance to Assist in Transition Away from Interbank Offered Rates to New Reference Rates; Letter to SEC  confirming treatment of interest rate reset features as embedded derivatives. See also Government Accounting Standards Board Statement No. 93, Replacement of Interbank Offered Rates and International Accounting Standards Board Staff Paper on Issues Leading up to IBOR Reform. 19 Guidance on the Transition From Interbank Offered Rates to Other Reference Rates; see also Letter from the ARRC to U.S.  Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service regarding proposed regulations and Letter from the ARRC to U.S. Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service requesting guidance regarding financial contract discount rate transition. 20 CFTC Provides Relief to Market Participants Transitioning Away from LIBOR; CFTC Provides Additional Relief to Market  Participants Transitioning from LIBOR; see also Letter from the ARRC to the CFTC regarding treatment of discount rate changes by derivatives clearing organizations. 21 FHFA, Libor Transition. 22 FHFA Announces Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Update on LIBOR Transition, February 5, 2020. 23 Fannie Mae to Accept Single-Family SOFR ARM Products Beginning August 3, 2020; SOFR-Indexed ARMS. See also their LIBOR  Transition Playbook.
I would therefore like to very briefly round off by saying something about what I personally believe could increase the long-term growth potential in Sweden. I believe that the stimulance for increased growth capacity in the Swedish economy can be found in three main arease, which concern, firstly, efforts to promote entrepreneurship, i.e. more people choosing to start up companies and companies growing. The entrepreneurs' share of the work force in 6 Sweden is low. Compared with other OECD countries, Sweden was ranked no. 19 in 2000. Secondly, we should invest more in knowledge and education, at all levels and for everyone. Research belongs here too, as does the link between research and new products - innovations. Education promotes both economic growth and individual welfare. The third area can be called the renewal of working life. A good, rich society must make use of the productive force that all people have. To make this possible probably requires new thinking in many areas. So, how about access to capital, this is surely decisive for growth? Certainly, but capital seeks to go where it will obtain the best return. Attractiveness, an ability to attract and retain investments, is created by entrepreneurs, research & development and competence. In an increasingly globalised market, regions and places compete with one another for investments. The most important factor in attracting investments is tied to people's capacity. The key to growth is human capacity and will.

At the end of 2001, it was estimated that the number of persons who had been on sick leave for longer than one year amounted to 120,000, which is almost three times the figure for 1997. The number of those on 4 sick leave shorter than one year is also continuing to rise. The problems are accentuated by the fact 1  According to Stephen Oliner and Daniel Sichel at the Federal Reserve in Washington, the productivity trend has increased by one percentage point during the second half of the 1990s. Half of this increase is a result of investments in IT. 2  Economics council report 2001: kluster.se. Sweden in the new geographical economy 2001. 3  800 000 full-time posts is calculated on approximately 400 000 early retirements plus total sick leave, including the qualification days and absence during the sick-pay period which when translated becomes approximately 400 000 full-time posts (Source: SOU 2002:5, An action plan for increased ill-health at work.) 4  Source: SOU 2002:5, An action plan for increased ill health at work. 4  BIS Review 14/2002  that the pensioner support ratio, which expresses the number of professionally active in relation to those retired due to ill-health or old age, is moving up from 2.1 in 2000 to 1.4 in 2030, according to 5 Statistics Sweden's population forecasts. This means that if potential growth is to be sustained through more people working, more need to participate in working life in the higher age groups.
The short-term economic policy objective to reinforce aggregate demand by monetary and fiscal policy measures belongs to the first category. The ECB has lowered interest rates and considerably increased money market operations, i.e., the total volume of shortterm loans to banks. In addition, EU countries have agreed to support the economy in 2009 and 2010 by raising fiscal expenditure in the total amount of 1.8% of GDP. However, this is constrained by rapidly expanding deficits and external debts. Therefore it is important that EU Member States make already plans for reducing fiscal deficit in the next years. The European Commission stresses that in the current complicated economic environment the Stability and Growth Pact is still relevant. The longer-term objective in the EU is to achieve fiscal balance or surplus. Second of all, it is extremely important to restore confidence in the financial sector. The minimum rate of guaranteed deposits in the EU was raised to 50,000 euro already in 2008. Thereafter Member States have agreed upon common principles to support the banking system. At the end of 2008 Member States put the main focus on the banks' liabilities side to ensure banks would be able to finance their operations also in a more adverse market situation. To this end many countries have offered collaterals to loans taken by banks, i.e., the state guarantees the repayment of loans taken by banks. In several countries the government has made contributions to banks' capital and acquired holdings in commercial banks.

On the one hand, tougher financing conditions and the drop in property prices have hit hard countries that have been relying on financial services and domestic demand in recent years, mostly Great Britain, Spain and Ireland, but also Estonia. On the other hand, the crisis has not spared  2  BIS Review 89/2009  countries that have been focusing on industrial production exports, primarily Germany, but also Sweden and Finland. Thus, the political choices of the Member States vary as well. Different conditions for countries borrowing from financial markets make up an additional problem in the EU. General distrust in the global financial markets as well as growing fiscal deficits, expanding government debts and insecure growth prospects have caused investors to become more risk-averse. As a result, the spread between the yields of government bods in the EU has notably widened. Some Member States must pay higher interest compared to a couple of years ago when they wish to borrow. This makes it harder to finance state expenditures. Based on the above, the EU's economic policy measures to exit the crisis can be divided into three large categories that were agreed upon in the European Economic Recovery Plan at end-2008. The shorter-term goal is to stop the downturn and to stabilise the economy. In longer term, it is necessary to restore the confidence of enterprises, households and financial markets in the growth potential of the European economy.
A lot has been made of the fact that no sovereign stress was made on the banking book. And indeed, as regulators, we did not want to give any credibility to a scenario that we consider unacceptable. However, there was full, total, and transparent disclosure of exposures to sovereigns for each in individual bank. Everybody is free  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  to make their own assumptions and calculations. With knowledge of the exposure, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out some scenarios. It turns out that such calculations would produce very reassuring numbers. But, for some reasons, they never were publically made by most analysts. Just as an illustration, the total exposure of French banks to sovereign debt in the southern part of Europe is 38% of total tier one (13% without Italy). I’ll let you make your own conclusions. Even in an apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of French banks tier one ratio would be compromised. The same results apply, with some variations, to other countries. Conclusion Let me know conclude. Like all other major advanced economies, the euro area is facing big challenges in adjusting to the post-crisis environment. For all, those challenges relate to long term fiscal sustainability. They are neither bigger nor smaller for the euro area than for the US, UK or Japan. They may be more complicated to solve because, by nature, our governance is more complex and we face specific collective action problems.

The German mark – the euro since January 1999 – has depreciated by about the same between 1995 and autumn 2000. The Japanese yen has been particularly volatile. 4  BIS Review 20/2002  Smaller countries have also experienced fairly wide exchange rate fluctuations. The Swedish krona has depreciated by more than 10 per cent since summer 2000. The Australian dollar has weakened by over 30 per cent since spring 1997. The UK, Canada and New Zealand have also experienced wide exchange rate fluctuations. The Norwegian krone exchange rate, on the other hand, has been relatively stable. Countries whose exports include a large component of raw materials tend to experience considerable volatility in their exchange rate. Australia is one example. Fluctuations in commodity prices entail changes in countries’ terms of trade, which measures the ratio of export to import prices. Changes in the terms of trade have an impact on the exchange rate, which in turn curbs the effects of changes in commodity prices on profitability in the business sector. Hence, the exchange rate serves as a buffer against changes in the terms of trade. Norway’s terms of trade also fluctuate considerably, primarily reflecting changes in oil prices. However, a substantial portion of petroleum revenues is invested in foreign equities and bonds through the Government Petroleum Fund. Changes in oil prices influence the size of the Fund, but  BIS Review 20/2002  5  have little effect on the use of petroleum revenues at home.
At the same time, there is great uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy as there is a political deadlock between the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress that may remain after the presidential election in 2012. The uncertainty has caused analysts to talk about the US economy facing a fiscal cliff next year. The concern applies on the one had to whether earlier income tax cuts and reductions in payroll taxes will be extended beyond the end of the year, and on the other hand is linked to the automatic expenditure cuts that will come into force at the turn of the year unless Congress can agree on long-term sustainable budget consolidation. All in all, these automatic tax increases and cuts in public expenditure entail a tightening during 2013 of 3–4 per cent of GDP. A further element of uncertainty is the result of the presidential election in November. If the results of the election are inconclusive and no party gains a clear majority, there is a major risk that the political deadlock will persist. The lack of credible budget solutions at present, and the low confidence in the political system’s ability to deal with the fiscal policy challenge, could led to companies and households beginning to act with greater caution. This would subdue growth in the world economy. We have given consideration to these risks in our forecast, but it is of course possible that the situation will be more problematic than we have assumed. Realistic to believe in an orderly resolution of the euro crisis?

4  “Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth”, McKinsey Global Institute (January 2012). 5  IMF Fiscal Monitor (April 2012), “Balancing Fiscal Policy Risks”. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  finances. If one studies Figure 2, there appears to be a connection between good competitiveness and a lower public debt ratio. Figure 2 Relationship between competitiveness and public debt ratio 7  6  Sweden Denmark  5  Finland  Germany  Norway Spain  USA  Ireland  Italy  Portugal  4  Greece  3  2  1  0 20  40  60  80  100  120  140  160  180  Note. The public debt ratio is shown as a percentage of GDP on the horizontal axis. Sources: World Economic Forum 2011 and IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2012. The vertical axis measures the respective country’s competitiveness as defined by the World Economic Forum 2011, 6 while the horizontal axis measures the current level of public debt as a share of GDP. A higher value on the vertical axis means that a country has a better competitiveness. There may, of course, be many factors that affect the public debt ratio, but according to the figure it would appear that countries with good competitiveness also tend to have a lower public debt ratio.
It has to equip firms with capability to move toward higher  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  product sophistication and flexibility to cater to changing global consumer demand. It has to nurture innovation, given that meaningful growth spurt tends to come from either new products or new ways of producing and delivering them. The strategic focus is thus to create the right environment and give the right incentive for firms to invest and innovate. Physical infrastructure is where we lack behind and suits to be the starting point. Hightech, capital-intensive industries tend to benefit greatly from knowledge spillovers and concentration of economic activities. Therefore, more specialized hubs and clusters – in the spirit of, for instance, Singapore’s Biopolis and Japan’s Tsukaba Science City – are needed. For industries with lower capital intensity, establishing industrial hubs and zonings of related industries would be beneficial, so that these industries can reap localized benefits such as the availability of specific inputs and better labor market pooling. Supporting these less capital- intensive industries will also serve toward the agenda of inclusive growth, for these industries contribute significantly to employment in rural areas. Last but not least, wellintegrated and cost-efficient logistics systems are called for, in order to ensure connectivity and efficiency of domestic production chains. Along with physical infrastructure upgrading, “soft” infrastructure has to be upgraded. In addition to educational reforms that I talked about earlier, improvements on the legal front are also needed.

But now that the height of the global crisis is behind us, and the need for short-term macroeconomic management less pressing, a serious attention should also be given to the agenda of long-term competitiveness and sustainable growth. This calls strongly for structural reforms of the supply side of the economy, where the constraints are particularly binding and a large-scale upgrading long overdue. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Pursuing demand management policies alone can only take us so far – somewhat akin to stepping on the gas pedal without upgrading or modifying the car we drive. Pursuing demand–side policies can also come with a steep price tag, especially when the policy borders on the realm of populism. Such policy would add to micro-level risks by making households undisciplined and addicted to “easy” money, while also add to macro-level risks by stretching fiscal resources without enhancing competitiveness in any meaningful way. The Bank of Thailand views the need to address structural issues to be very timely and pressing. “Lifting barriers to sustainable growth” was indeed the central theme of investigation of the Bank of Thailand Symposium this year, which was held at the Bangkok Convention Center last week, and I hope some of you had a chance to participate in the event. My comment today, however, is my personal view and is not intended to be related to the Symposium.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Raising the bar for the next phase of growth and development – sustaining transformative momentum Welcoming address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 10th IFSB (Islamic Financial Services Board) Summit 2013 “The future of the Islamic financial services industry – resilience, stability and inclusive growth”, Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur, 16 May 2013. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to welcome you to this 10th IFSB Summit, on the “The Future of the Islamic Financial Services Industry: Resilience, Stability and Inclusive Growth”. Bank Negara Malaysia is most honored to host this year’s summit, which is held in conjunction with the 10th anniversary of the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). It was here in Kuala Lumpur 10 years ago that we witnessed the momentous occasion of the IFSB inauguration, that was the culmination of international collaboration among the founding member countries with the support of several key international and multilateral institutions. Its landmark establishment in 2002 as the international prudential standard setting body for the Islamic finance marked a major milestone in the effort to strengthen the international infrastructure for the Islamic financial system, steering the path for its successful integration as a viable component of the global financial system.

A decade on, the work of the IFSB in ensuring a cohesive cross-border regulatory framework and the international best practices that are attuned to the intrinsic characteristics and peculiarities of Islamic financial intermediation, have served to underpin the development of a sound and stable Islamic financial system, ushering in a phase of rapid growth and greater internationalization of the industry. Indeed, 10 years since the founding of the IFSB have been a period of significance, during which the Islamic financial services industry has grown impressively with its landscape dramatically evolved. This growth acceleration has been accompanied by the widening of its geographical reach transcending its traditional borders in Muslim majority countries to the more established financial centres. In addition, Islamic finance has evolved as a comprehensive system of intermediation servicing all segments of society, including governments, businesses and households regardless of scale of businesses and income levels. In this decade, Islamic finance has also evolved from being domestic-centric to become increasingly internationalized, intermediating funds across borders and becoming a new vehicle that bridges economies and fostering closer financial linkages, particularly among emerging and developing markets. As a form of financial intermediation that is well anchored to serve the real economy, Islamic finance offers distinct potential to achieve the goals of inclusive growth and financial stability. Its foundations have been strengthened with the setting up of the IFSB and before that, the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), have taken the lead in setting the prudential and accounting standards for the industry.