samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As I mentioned earlier, the internet shifts the balance of power from banks to the consumers by giving them increased opportunity to shop around. This has coincided with efforts by banks to switch their marketing efforts to consumer finance, credit cards and wealth management products in order to broaden their sources of income and to make up for sluggish business opportunities elsewhere. The internet should help in the cross-selling of these products to consumers, but it is not by itself a guarantee of success. The banks must also ensure that they do not alienate their customers through unfair or opaque terms and conditions. For example, in the internet context, customers should not be held liable for direct losses caused by unauthorised transactions where they are not at fault. Banks therefore need to become more conscious of the fact that they cannot take their customers for granted. They must be prepared to offer them a fair deal, and be seen to do so. This is something that we will be addressing in Hong Kong through revisions to our Code of Banking Practice. In this connection, we have recently issued for consultation some proposals on credit card practices which will eventually be incorporated into the revised Code. These include, for example, a recommendation that banks should publish standardised APRs for the cost of obtaining finance via credit cards. I will close by returning to the theme of the New Economy. It used to be said that the days of the banks were numbered.

Chart 10 Survey measure of businesses’ price expectations Balance of respondents expecting higher prices, BCC Survey Manufacturing  50  Services  40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30  1997  1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  Source: British Chamber of Commerce  7 8  12  See Sentance (2011) for example. For example, Orphanides and Williams (2005) argue that changes in the unemployment rate provide a better guide to demand pressure than the level of unemployment because of uncertainty about the equilibrium rate of unemployment. BIS central bankers’ speeches  What we can observe more clearly is how the pricing intentions of businesses and the rate of price increases they are able to secure are responding to changes in the demand climate. And this evidence does not seem to support the view that the pressure of demand is bearing down heavily on inflation at present in the UK, even when allowance is made for cost increases. Chart 10 shows a survey-based measure of pricing intentions from the surveys conducted by Chambers of Commerce around the UK. This shows that expected price increases are currently running at relatively high levels in both manufacturing and services, and that there has been a significant turnaround in the pricing climate since the trough of the recession in 2009. Another indicator which suggests that domestic demand pressures are exerting limited downward pressure on inflation at present is the rate of inflation in the services sector.
And I would like to offer some ideas of the regulatory challenges facing the banking industry in the years ahead – and how these relate to the wider economy and the community. Looking back 7. My first term as chief executive of the HKMA began 10 years ago this coming Tuesday. That was around two years after the US subprime mortgage crisis had broken out, in 2007. 8. Obviously, Hong Kong was affected. The local community was especially shocked by one side-effect of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy – and that of course was the Lehman minibonds episode. In this whole climate of crisis, public trust in the financial services industry had fallen. It was a challenging time to step into the chief executive’s office. 9. I do not want to spoil a very enjoyable lunch – so I will not give you a long list of the measures and initiatives the HKMA has introduced over the last 10 years. At a rough estimate, we issued an average of around 70 circulars a year during this 10-year period. I am sure you all remember them very well! 10. For me, the most important work has been in addressing several broad themes, which to some degree overlap.

First, these institutions should not expect a return to “business as usual.” We are committed to implementing the reforms that will prevent a recurrence of the recent financial crisis. BIS Review 125/2009  7  Second, as most of the current reform agenda of the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee relates to the regulatory framework as applied by your home country, we expect that foreign banks’ operations in the United States will fully comply with these structures as they are put in place in their home country as well. Third, we support the continued international banking presence of global banking institutions. National implementation must not jeopardize the economic benefits derived from crossborder banking. We need to be wary about nationalistic approaches to supervision. Fourth, financial firms that operate in our markets should continue to be vigilant in meeting the expectations we have for strong risk management and compliance practices. It wasn’t too long ago that some foreign banking organizations faced supervisory discipline for failing to meet those standards. Given the lessons of the crisis, I would expect that our focus and attention on these areas would only intensify going forward. Fifth, we will be particularly focused on how the new supervisory framework will apply to the U.S. personnel associated with the operations of foreign banks in the United States. In particular, we will have substantial concern if these firms’ compensation practices are contrary to the text or spirit of the international agreements on compensation practices that are in the process of being hammered out.
So our inflation targeting in the euro area is nothing new or specific; and our present monetary policy is not some uncontrolled Latin flight of fancy. In practice, the euro area experienced a remarkable period of price stability up until the crisis. But as of 2013, inflation dropped well below the 2% mark. Our mandate meant we had to react in order to bring inflation back to healthier levels for our economies. And we are clearly progressing towards our objectives. Our monetary policy works; the measures we have put in place since 2014 have already been successful. First, [slide 2] we have warded off the mortal danger of deflation, and inflation is gradually recovering in the euro area. Headline inflation peaked at 2% last month, up from –0.2% in April 2016. The sharp – and partly temporary – uptick at the beginning of this year is mainly due to the rebound in energy and food prices, as underlying inflation remains below 1% (and 1.2% in 1/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  Germany). However underlying inflation is expected to rise gradually to 1.8% in 2019. We are reasonably confident that both headline and underlying inflation will converge, close to our target in 2019; and this convergence, which is not often stressed, is a key element in our forecasts, as it is crucial to the mid-term sustainability​ of the inflation path.

The challenge then is for the leadership to chart a clear strategic direction at the group level that, in short term, prepares the organization in responding to those changing environment and, in long term, creates an organization that can sustain success. The strategic direction also must fully embrace the opportunities to leverage on the group's expertise, experience, infrastructure and its extensive networks abroad in offering diversified takaful products and enhancing customer services. Emphasis should also be directed on the enhancement of human capital that would serve as an enabler for the Commerce group to achieve greater height. With the entry of Commerce Takaful Berhad into the domestic takaful industry, we also hope that all takaful players fully internalize the spirit of "takaful", that is mutual cooperation and assistance among each other, so that the industry could collaborate towards common objectives of further enhancing the resilient and expansion of the industry. Initiatives such as developing human talent and finding better and more effective mechanism of venturing abroad should also be explored at industry level. More collaborative efforts may also be directed towards strengthening the retakaful sector in which we have also first mover advantages that would subsequently reduce dependency on conventional reinsurance as a risk mitigation tool. Indeed, in realizing our vision to sustain takaful as an important sector which contributes towards the economic growth of the nation, the industry players have to jointly demonstrate unwavering commitment towards elevating the industry to new and higher levels of achievement.
Therefore, in order to ensure that the MFI sector grows in a sustainable manner and to protect public deposits, the BoZ developed the Banking and Financial Services “Microfinance Regulations” which came into effect on 31 January 2006. The Regulations were aimed at strengthening the sector and ensuring accountability and transparency in operations and providing effective smooth integration of the sector into the mainstream financial sector. Honourable Minister, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, at the time of the coming into effect of the Microfinance Regulations, there were only three microfinance institutions licensed by the Bank of Zambia. Today, the number of licensed microfinance institutions has increased to thirteen. This number is expected to increase further in light of the additional applications that are currently being considered. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is pleasing to see the extent to which commercial banks are working at providing financial services to the medium and small scale entrepreneurs. This is so because such financial inclusion is bound to lead to wealth creation. It is imperative that commercial banks, in providing financial services, ensure that the projects they are supporting are financially viable. The role of the commercial bank, in this regard, goes beyond sifting out unviable projects and providing finance for the best projects. As Bank of Zambia, we are pleased to see that the private sector, especially banks, are now taking steps to partner with Government in working towards reduction of poverty through increased provision of financial services to a wider clientele.

As major players in credit provision, Banks have an urgent challenge to provide products that are suitable to SMEs and within their reach. Honourable Minister, at current levels, interest rates are too high for the SMEs to access credit. We urge banks and other financial institutions to continue reviewing the cost of borrowing as part of the process to improve SMEs access to the much needed finances to expand their operations, employ more people, and thereby provide impetus to significantly reduce poverty rates in the country. Honourable Minister, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, in view of the financing gap for the SMEs, the microfinance sector in Zambia has taken a leading role to fill this vacuum. However, the services provided by the microfinance institutions fall short of meeting the demands of SMEs. The sector can be said to be relatively young with the pioneers being established in the early 1990’s. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, I am glad to note that the conference will also focus on the very important aspect of corporate governance. Corporate governance is vital to building a solid, efficient and sustainable financial system and growth of businesses. Without these sound foundations, the institutions capable of reaching out to the poorest in society will never be encouraged. It is generally agreed that there is a strong link between corporate governance and access to finance.
A review of the national accounts shows that the level of consumption over the last three years was ultimately much higher than we had thought: almost $ billion more. Moreover, the speed of the economy's adjustment has been slower than expected. In the projection scenario that I will now share with you, the improved performance in early 2023 leads to an upward revision of this year's GDP growth projection. However, the economy will continue adjusting in the coming quarters. Therefore, for 2024 our projection is corrected downward. With this, the cumulative growth between 2023 and 2024 does not differ much from what was forecast in the December Report. Total inflation will continue to decline in the coming quarters. According to our projections, it will return to single digits during the second quarter. However, I want to be emphatic in pointing out that this does not mean the inflationary problem has been solved, much less inflationary convergence is assured. Our goal is to bring inflation down to 3% in two years. Higher inflation is very costly for everyone. The global economic outlook has turned more difficult since early March. For the Chilean economy, this will imply facing lower external demand and tighter global financial conditions. Overall, the current scenario is associated with a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. On the one hand, there is the risk of a sharper deterioration of the external scenario, with more profound implications for Chile.

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Third, the heightened aversion of financial institutions to risk has led to fears of a “credit crunch”. A credit crunch occurs when lending institutions try to reduce their exposure to risk and, in so doing, the size of their balance sheets. In recent weeks, the desire of these institutions to reduce the scale of their leveraging and move to less risky portfolios has led to a reduction in the amount of capital available to support liquid financial markets. As a result, asset prices of all kinds have been volatile. So far the consequences of turbulence in financial markets have been largely restricted to securities markets, especially in the United States. These markets are somewhat less important in the provision of corporate finance in the UK, although if the reduction in security market issuance were to persist this could affect the ability of the personal and corporate sectors to obtain finance from both banks and the capital market. As yet lending by UK banks has not been  BIS Review 86/1998  -3-  affected to any significant extent. The monetary statistics published yesterday show that total bank credit grew by 0.7% in September, leaving the 12-month growth unchanged at 8.7%. The MPC will watch carefully for any signs of a credit crunch developing. The Bank monitors indicators of credit conditions in the financial markets on a daily basis.

Therefore wooing investment into this institution should not be difficult task. Such investment will go a long way in enhancing the quality of graduates this Institution will produce. BIS Review 23/2009  1  Mr President, it is during times of crisis such as the one we are undergoing that graduates should assist the industry in coming up with well researched constructive proposals and solutions on how challenges may be addressed within the context of our local environment. The prevailing global financial meltdown is in fact an opportunity for the institute to critically review its core operations and determine if its flagship education and training programmes as well as other learning environment initiatives such as research, consultancy, counselling and continuous professional development activities are robust enough to adequately serve our financial services sector, both in times of buoyancy and during periods of turbulence. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am reliably informed that the Institute is negotiating strategic alliances that will ensure high quality international standard flagship education and training programmes for professionals in Zambia’s financial services industry. I am equally pleased to note that that the Institute has direct representatio n on two working groups of the Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP) – the Banking Working Group and the Human Resource Working Group. I have no doubt the FSDP stands to benefit from more representation from the Institute. I urge you Mr President and Council Members, to engage all the stakeholders in the financial sector including, Non-Bank Financial Institutions, Insurance Companies, Stock brokers and Pension Funds.
On the state and local side, a rising economy should boost sales and income tax revenue, and help narrow near-term fiscal shortfalls. We also need to remain watchful for signs that low interest rates could foster a buildup of financial excesses or bubbles that might pose a medium-term risk to both full employment and price stability. Fortunately, current risk spreads on U.S. financial assets are not unduly compressed. This suggests that people are still being relatively cautious about taking on a lot of financial asset risk. On the inflation side of the ledger, there are some signs that core inflation is now stabilizing after falling for several years. At the Fed, we track core inflation (which excludes the volatile food and energy prices) because experience and research tell us that core inflation provides the best measure of whether overall inflationary pressures are building up or subsiding. Core inflation has proven quite reliable in predicting future total, or “headline” inflation rates. At the moment, both headline and core inflation remain below levels consistent with our dual mandate objectives – which most members of the FOMC consider to be 2 percent or a bit less on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) measure. Recent evidence shows that the large amount of slack in the economy has contributed to declining inflation over the past couple of years. I expect this slack to continue to dampen price pressures in the near term. Inflation expectations are well-anchored today and we intend to keep it that way.

From peak to trough, employment declined by roughly 3 percent in Queens, far less than the roughly 7 percent plunge nationally and the 4.5 percent loss in New York City as a whole. Although borough-specific economic data are not quite as current as city-wide data, we at the New York Fed see clear indications that employment in Queens stopped declining in the first half of 2010. We hope that upcoming reports will show a sustained upturn. With prospects for the national economy improving in early 2011, the outlook for Queens’ diverse and vibrant economy – and New York City’s as a whole – seems to be brightening as well. Conclusion To sum up, the national economy experienced a pick-up in activity during the last quarter of 2010 that shows signs of continuing in 2011. Although the city’s economy saw some loss of momentum, I would not be overly discouraged. After all, soft patches are not uncommon during economic recoveries. Both nationally and regionally, unemployment remains stubbornly high, but many indicators suggest that conditions are in place for stronger growth in the coming months. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
We try to discipline ourselves not to claim too much credit for stable growth. And in forecasting, we have to attend to the uncertainties around our projections of the central outlook. Some numbers may serve to underline that. The MPC’s projections are published as fan charts. The fan-chart standard deviation of output growth at around one year is a little under one percentage point; and of inflation at around two years, roughly 0.5 percentage points. This is not a world in which one should get carried away by fine judgments that alter the central projection for demand by 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points. Yet, as the Bank has documented, 15 assuming that credibility is maintained, the effect of a surprise change in the official interest rate, is judged to be small; maybe less than 0.1 percentage point on the annual rate of inflation two years after a 25bp surprise change maintained for one year. Of course, we are not in fact in the business of aiming to make surprise changes in our policy rate. Against a background of credibility, a lot of practical monetary policy making is not about forestalling major lurches in the economy and inflation via large, abrupt changes in the policy rate. Instead, it has to involve careful analysis of the conjuncture, with transparency to the market. But these numbers do perhaps illustrate the importance of our not getting drawn into absurd degrees of detail, and the risk of signalling that we think we can precisely fine tune demand conditions.

Effects of EU accession The EU accession has led to even better market access for local producers and has given Estonia as well as the other new Member States a kind of "seal of quality" as an investment destination. Already the prospect of the EU accession enhanced these countries' credibility in the eyes of investors. But since the accession, the inflow of funds has been especially strong, as economic situation in the euro area was combined with higher global liquidity. Furthermore, the geography of investors has broadened. The prospect of adopting the euro in a relatively near future has lowered interest margins in several of the new Member States including Estonia and has given an additional boost to investments. The above factors, including convergence, as a background, one may speculate about the length of the current economic cycle, and where exactly we stand in that cycle at the moment. In short, there are some suggestions that we might have entered unusually long economic cycle and may be coming closer to the peak of the cycle. However, many of the current vulnerabilities of the Baltic economies are also tied in with these effects of the EU accession and rapid convergence. Understanding these risks requires careful analysis. Let me now turn to my second topic - challenges the strong economic and credit growth are offering.