Other services were deeply impacted by the shutdown of non-essential services, and other sectors – such as manufacturing – were adversely affected by disruptions to the global supply chain. Although GDP still posted positive growth in the first quarter, the contraction in the second was broadly at par with that registered in the euro area. Incoming data suggest that economic activity began to recover and sentiment improved in the third quarter as the most disruptive containment measures were lifted, Page | 1 Document Classification: Public  but rising positive cases and newly introduced restrictions will likely weigh on activity in the fourth quarter, so that confidence among consumers and business is likely to take longer to recover than previously anticipated. During these uncertain times, projections have become increasingly difficult, as economic activity is intrinsically linked to the evolution of the pandemic, its impact on confidence of consumers and businesses, and very importantly to policy support and prospects of a medical solution. Unlike the great financial crisis of 2008-2009, the fiscal response has been prompt and significant, aided by the fiscal space accumulated in recent years. Liquidity measures such as tax deferrals, moratoria on loan repayments and the Malta Development Bank COVID-19 Guarantee Scheme, have all been fundamental in limiting bankruptcies by providing liquidity support. In addition, the Wage Supplement Scheme has been very successful in avoiding higher unemployment. Additionally, the voucher scheme has been a welcome boost to support domestic consumption, and provided some relief to the retail and hospitality sector during summer.

A recent report cited by Financial Times (FT, 6 January 2007) shows that the Northern members of the eurozone are likely to profit and the Southern members to suffer from the climate change. Nevertheless, whatever the likelihood of shocks, it remains of crucial importance to maintain a balanced fiscal perspective and flexible labor market which can absorb shocks, should they arise. Now let me move to the possibility of rising micro- and macroeconomic imbalances. Such imbalances can take the form of lending booms, current account deficits or increasing inflation pressure. Such a set of symptoms in a monetary union member country reveals in most cases one common cause – real interest rates that are too low. Economists have for a long time argued that each  2  BIS Review 6/2007  economy has an appropriate, long-run level of the real interest rate called the natural rate of interest (Wicksell 1898). Keeping interest rates at this (unfortunately unobserved) level should guarantee that the economy will remain in equilibrium – output will not exceed production capacity and inflation will remain stable (Woodford 2003). This is what implicitly or explicitly most inflation targeting central banks are trying to achieve. One of the problems with joining a common currency area might be that real interest rates in this area will be lower than the natural rate of the new member. Recent research shows that this might be the case for Poland, where the natural rate has remained in the past above the euro area level (Brzoza-Brzezina 2006).