samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As MAS Chairman Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam puts it in his Foreword to this year’s Annual Report: “MAS has progressively over the five decades become a central bank and integrated financial supervisor of repute amongst its international peers, a source of confidence domestically, and an active partner with the industry in developing opportunities for Singapore’s growth as an international financial centre.” My colleagues and I are deeply conscious of the legacy which we have inherited and will continue to do our best for Singapore: to secure for Singaporeans a low rate of inflation; to preserve the purchasing power of Singapore’s official foreign reserves; to keep Singapore’s financial system safe and sound; and to grow Singapore as a vibrant international financial centre. With that, let me close my remarks. Thank you. 1 June 2021 Consensus Forecasts. 2 Comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, and weighted by shares in  Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports. 3 Purchasing Managers Index which tracks expectations for future output. 4 Future output sub-indices drawn from the composite PMIs for China and Hong Kong. For all other Asia ex-Japan  economies, the manufacturing future output sub-index is used. 5 June 2021 Consensus Forecasts weighted by Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports shares. 6 MAS Macroeconomic Review April 2021. 7 DBS Bank, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, United Overseas Bank, Citibank, Malayan Banking Berhad,  Standard Chartered Bank, and the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation.

2.0  Recent economic developments  2.1  Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  During the period 2001-2007, growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged about 5.1% per annum, largely due to investment in the mining, tourism, construction and transport  BIS Review 76/2008  1  and agriculture sectors. This has set a strong basis for further favourable economic growth in the medium to long-term. Thus GDP growth is projected to rise by no less than 7.0% in 2008 and beyond. Consistent with the developments in the economy, GDP per capita rose to US $ in 2007 from US $ in 2001. 2.2  Interest rates  Commercial banks’ lending rates have also been declining, though not as fast as the reduction in inflation and Treasury bills rates. For instance, the commercial banks average lending rate fell from 54.6% in December 2001 to 24.4% in December 2007. Lower lending rates are expected in the current environment of low inflation and will contribute to reducing the cost of doing business in Zambia. 2.3  Inflation  Inflation has declined from 18.7% recorded in 2001 to single digit level of 8.2% in 2006 and 8.9% in 2007. It is projected to slow down further to 7.0% by December 2008. This inflation outturn was largely credited to the conduct of appropriate monetary policy coupled with prudent fiscal policy and relative stability of the Kwacha, assisted by lower food prices following the favourable 2005/06 and 2006/07 farming seasons.
We have drawn our plans and the work has been going on for some time. In some cases we can take advantage of our still-remembered experience of the 1992 monetary reform. In other cases, like some settlement-systems-related issues, we must wait for European institutions to make up their minds about the details. There is no doubt, however that technical preparation would not slow us down. IV. In conclusion  Speaking about future developments in Estonia in the light of the challenges shortly discussed above, it is good to bear in mind that policy efforts are necessary also after becoming part of the EU and the EMU. Fulfilling the Maastricht criteria and being 'admitted to the club' cannot be seen as 'the ultimate achievement'. For instance, the recent achievements of the economies of our Nordic neighbours compared to the developments in a wider Europe should make us very aware that there are real advantages in fulfilling the Stability and Growth Pact. I am convinced that EU membership will be beneficial to Estonia. But I am also very sure that Estonia has something to offer to the EU in its turn - some experience on handling issues pertaining to the  BIS Review 42/2003  3  flexibility and mobility of production factors, for example. It is important that Estonia, like every other future EU member state, offer its contribution towards the common goal. 4  BIS Review 42/2003

One fundamental factor is that households endeavour to make realistic calculations of how much interest expenditure and amortisation they can manage in the long run, not only when interest rates are as low as they are now. Something that can be said to be the flip side of the same coin is that the banks make responsible credit assessments when lending money. If these two basic components are in place, there is a good chance of avoiding an out-ofcontrol situation further ahead, although as I said before there are many other factors that may be important. Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority) carries  4  BIS Review 138/2009  out very important work here in that they monitor developments in the banks and credit institutions and are prepared to take action if they consider it necessary. Underlying inflation stable around target of 2 per cent The impact of monetary policy on households’ living costs is something that creates large fluctuations in CPI inflation during the forecast period (Figure 5). The fact that the repo rate has been cut heavily over the past year has contributed to a rapid fall in CPI inflation, as changes in households’ mortgage expenditure are included in this index. With effect from autumn 2010, however, the repo rate is expected to rise relatively quickly, which will correspondingly mean that CPI inflation will be close to 4 per cent at the beginning of 2012.
Given the multifaceted risks posed by capital flows, policymakers must be able to avail ourselves of a broad range of policy instruments. These policy instruments include interest rate, exchange rate, macroprudential and capital flow measures. In deciding which instruments to use, we should avoid ruling out the use of any policy tools upfront. Rather, the choice of instruments needs to be tailored to the specific risks being managed and the circumstances the economy is facing. In addition, the choice of policy instruments also needs to be considered in an integrated manner to increase the efficacy of policies, minimise potential trade-offs, and avoid overburdening of any single policy tool. Finally, I would like to briefly touch on the role of SEG and SEACEN in dealing with this issue. Earlier, I mentioned the importance of surfers learning how to deal with all types of weather and wave conditions. What I did not mention is the fact that it is impossible for them to learn these skills individually. In Pro Surf Bali, one of the most popular surfing schools in Bali, surfers come together to share their experiences surfing in the toughest conditions, and in doing so, prepare each other for possible eventualities. The SEG forum on capital flows is in a unique position to achieve this objective. The forum can facilitate deeper awareness and understanding of member countries’ challenges in dealing with capital flows. The frank exchanges of experiences and policies will place member countries on a stronger footing when facing the next wave of capital flows.

Such an adjustment, never easy, requires unprejudiced, honest assessment of the new realities with clear eyes, unencumbered by the defence of previously held paradigms that have lost any explanatory power. Fifth, we must be aware of the gaps that still remain in our knowledge. Our mainstream macroeconomic models still have little to say, for instance, about the non-linear propagation of shocks, the distributional impacts of policies, or how endogenous firm entry and exit can affect economic performance.15 Policy actions undertaken in the last ten years in monetary policy and in regulation and supervision have made the world more resilient. But we should continue preparing for new challenges. The changes that we have discussed, profound as they are, often hinge on one fundamental idea. A natural question to ask is whether such an idea sprang out as a response to a specific policy problem or was rather conceived previously in an entirely different, unrelated intellectual environment, perhaps addressing a different set of problems. It is a question that is especially relevant in economics, when previously held consensus views change. But it is a question that is unlikely to have a precise answer. Let me rather use the 1939 words of Abraham Flexner, the first director of the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study: “Almost every discovery has a long precarious history. Someone finds a bit here, another a bit there.
Obviously, the optimal features of such a system are difficult to pin down but the practice of name-and-shame has in itself raised the underlying issue and  4  BIS Review 73/2006  thus increased awareness of the importance of fiscal discipline. After decades of more or less lax fiscal policies in several countries, this basic achievement should not be forgotten. Contributing to the problems of ensuring fiscal austerity is that the bigger the union, the smaller the relative size of individual countries. This means that free-riding very well might become a problem as it is rational to run deficits, even if your instinct is not to free-ride. Why? Because even though you belong to the small minority that does not worsen the fiscal position, all countries still have a tighter monetary policy that has come about as a result of the majority running lax fiscal policies. The result could be a bad macroeconomic policy mix: larger deficits and a higher interest rate than would otherwise be the case. In my view, this is a greater problem than the often discussed worst-case scenario of one or more countries experiencing a full-blown debt crisis as a result of a sustained lax fiscal policy. Acknowledging these practical difficulties, the recent re-haul of the SGP can serve as a starting point when deciding upon an appropriate framework that can hopefully minimise the problems touched upon here. Developing a fiscal framework The SGP could be characterized as consisting of three parts: governance, a preventive arm and a corrective arm.

Obviously, a non-negligible part of the future environment for central banks hinges upon these developments. As time goes by, they will provide us with guidance as to which of the two corner solutions for exchange rate policy will prove the most popular – a freely floating currency or membership of a monetary union. However, although important, these developments are admittedly slow and differences in the end-result should not be exaggerated. I merely intend to suggest that the transition in stabilisation policy that comes with joining a monetary union perhaps is not as large as it first seems. Central banking has a long history and although it has been confronted with many changes in the past, it has far from lost its importance, if anything rather the contrary. Basic functions,  7  For a recent study of business cycle synchronisation, see Kose, Otrok and Whiteman (2005). BIS Review 73/2006  7  such as aiding financial intermediation through large value payment systems and acting as a lender of last resort, will remain important in the future as well. Needless to say, it will be very interesting to follow the transformation of EAC in general and the role of the Bank of Uganda in particular. References Annett, A., (2006), “Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe’s Fiscal Framework”, IMF Working Paper, No 06/116. Baldwin, R., (2006), “In or Out: Does it Matter?
The increased number of wealthy individuals has changed the demand for financial services. Traditional banking services or products, while maintaining a strong position in liquidity provision, are not adequate for people interested in diversification and maximisation of returns subject to risks in the context of long-term investments. The associated rise in demand for securities has led to an increasing need for brokerage, fund management and consultancy services. While there are new providers for these services, banks could remain at the centre stage, albeit with their services oriented more towards asset management. In addition to the overall increase in the wealth of individuals, the composition of wealth has shifted towards a greater emphasis on wealth in the form of financial assets. This is manifest in the increase in the relative market value of stock exchanges, which is clearly visible in most euro area countries. The increase in financial wealth relates closely to the shift towards a market-oriented financial system and also to the increased importance of institutional investors. BIS Review 83/2000  2  All the developments I have discussed so far underlie recent changes in the structure of the financial system. Financial systems in the euro area could be departing from a bank-dominated structure, becoming more market-oriented or even securitised. An indicator for this development is the declining share of deposits in households’ portfolios. Meanwhile, aided by technology, the disintermediation process on the assets side is under way in a number of countries, even though the process has been quite slow.

By structural change, I mean not only domestic consolidation, but also increased cross-border cooperation and mergers. In short, the euro area banking sector is expected to look and behave more like the banking sector of a single economy in the future. Economies of scale and scope may have been changing in different areas of banking and may even have taken different directions. However, the general picture is that the banking industry needs to be in a position to adjust to a new reality. Indeed, since the introduction of the euro, a number of bank mergers in the euro area, including mergers between relatively large institutions, have been announced. Such “high-profile” mergers are likely to contribute towards an acceleration of the pace of both the consolidation and integration process of the banking systems in the euro area. The recent pattern of consolidation constitutes a continuation of a longer-term trend in the European banking industry, as is highlighted by the large decline in the number of credit institutions in the euro area countries over the past decade or so. In the mid-1980s, there were more than 11,000 credit  3  BIS Review 83/2000  institutions in the euro area countries, compared with around 7,500 now. This reflects a decrease of 3,500 credit institutions over 15 years, or an average annual decrease of around 230 institutions. The changeover to the single currency seems to have intensified the consolidation trend in the euro area banking sector.
Maiava Atalina Ainuu Enari: Educating individuals to manage their personal finances Opening remarks by Ms Maiava Atalina Ainuu Enari, Governor of the Central Bank of Samoa, at the MoneyPACIFIC “Money Guide” launch, Apia, 2 April 2014. *  *  *  Members of the Diplomatic Community Youth and Education Directors of the Church denominations present today Our MoneyPACIFIC partners – Kim Hailwood and Becky de Beer-Lamont Distinguished Guests Ladies and Gentlemen It is indeed an honour for me to address this gathering today, at this important milestone in the partnership of the MoneyPACIFIC project and the Central Bank of Samoa. The MoneyPACIFIC Project was established in 2007 under the umbrella of the NZ-Pacific Remittances’ Project which stands to help reduce costs of sending money within the Pacific Region, and has concurrently worked hard to lift Pacific Communities awareness of the need to prudently manage their personal finances. We have worked closely with the MoneyPACIFIC programme over the recent years and we consider them a great ally in the promotion of financial inclusion and financial literacy here in Samoa. In a moment Kim and Becky will elaborate more on the MoneyPACIFIC initiative and its latest resource but before that I would like to take a few moments to talk a little bit more on why financial literacy is important to the Central Bank of Samoa.

It will be equally  2  BIS Review 110/2007  important, in both the private and public sectors, for wage growth to be compatible with productivity growth, labour market conditions and cost developments in competitor countries. The further strengthening of competition in both product and resource markets and the creation of more incentives to work are also necessary in order to raise the participation rate. It also needs to be realized that these reforms are essential for safeguarding our social model. In recent decades we have been successful in reducing income inequality and in securing universal access to all levels of education, to health care and to pensions. These benefits, however, can only continue to be enjoyed by future generations if today’s generation implements the necessary reforms. The next phase in Malta’s economic history, therefore, promises to be a challenging one, but it should also be an exciting time. For a country with a population of 400,000 and a GDP of just four-and-a-half billion euro, having a major reserve unit as its domestic currency is indeed a significant advantage. We thus have good reason to feel encouraged and, as a people that has suffered repeatedly as a consequence of divisions on the European mainland, also reassured that we are about to reinforce our integration in Europe with full economic and monetary union.
Set out in details in the previous month, these measures aim at further reducing liquidity premiums and intermediation costs in the financial markets, in order to boost lending and economic growth. Our projections for 2013 support the assessment for Albania's economic growth ranging close to past year's rates. Foreign demand will be the main driver of economic growth, while the fiscal policy is expected to contribute to growth on the same direction, but at lower intensity, in the period ahead. On the other hand, private consumption and investment remain weak and unstable. The continuation of below-potential economic growth will determine weak inflationary pressures in the upcoming months as well. In the absence of unexpected supply-side shocks, consumer prices will continue to rise at low rates. With a 90% probability, four-quarter-ahead annual inflation will range within the 0.6–3.6% band. The low annual inflation rates and forecast for their continuation over the monetary policyrelevant horizon call for maintaining the stimulating nature of the monetary policy over the next quarters. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  *** At the end of discussions, the Supervisory Council decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, at 3.75%. It concluded that stimulating monetary conditions establish the proper premises for meeting the inflation target in the medium term, and contribute to the growth of aggregate demand and full utilisation of production capacities. The weak inflationary pressures determine the continuation of a stimulating monetary policy by the Bank of Albania.

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen, 31 January 2002. The address is based on the assessments presented at the press conference following the monetary policy meeting of Norges Bank’s Executive Board on 23 January 2002. *  *  *  On 29 March 2001, the Stoltenberg Government issued new guidelines for monetary policy and presented guidelines for fiscal policy. The guidelines for fiscal policy imply that the central government budget deficit shall be equivalent over time to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. The changes in the guidelines for economic policy received broad support in the Storting. The budget for 2002 adhered to these guidelines. Monetary policy is to be oriented towards low and stable inflation. The inflation target was set at 2½ per cent. In general, direct effects on consumer prices resulting from changes in interest rates, taxes, excise duties and extraordinary temporary disturbances shall not be taken into account. Low and stable inflation is the best contribution monetary policy can make to growth and prosperity. In the long term, monetary policy has little effect on employment and output. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. In the last hundred years, we have had three extended periods of inflation - during World War I, during World War II and after the oil price shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, which triggered wage-price spirals.
Rising concerns regarding the debt sustainability of several Southern European countries have caused risk appetites to follow a volatile and downward trajectory, which in turn, have triggered capital outflows from emerging markets and increased risk premiums. While risk premium indicators particularly in some European countries have increased, during this period, increases in emerging market risk premiums – especially in Turkey – have been limited (Figure 3). BIS Review 133/2010  1  Sovereign debt-related problems in Europe have once again confirmed that downside risks regarding the global economy activity remain. This development led many central banks to adopt a monetary policy stance with an increased emphasis on downside risks, especially in advanced countries. Accordingly, central banks of advanced economies have underscored that the current monetary policy stance would be kept accommodative for a long period, while emerging economies have also adopted similar changes in their rhetoric through policy statements. These developments have postponed the expectations regarding the timing of policy normalization (Figure 4). 2  BIS Review 133/2010  According to this outlook, year-on-year inflation in consumer prices was flat in both advanced and emerging economies during the second quarter of 2010 (Figure 5). In the meantime, core inflation continued to diverge between both groups of economies (Figure 6). 1. Inflation developments  After summarizing current global conditions, I would now like to make an evaluation of the inflation developments in Turkey that took place in the last quarter.

Let us remember that, for example, in Bulgaria the inflation rate had topped 1,000 percent and the economy was in shambles. The introduction of the currency board was the solution which, at unavoidable social costs, brought the Bulgarian economy afloat, with inflation falling steeply and staying close to EU levels for a good couple of years. But the currency board has its limits and constraints. The BNR has constantly opposed the adoption of such a system by Romania given these limits and constraints. Actually, a country adopting the currency board is deprived of monetary policy and thus the central bank becomes a sort of an institute for statistics. Instead of a two-pedal vehicle – monetary and fiscal policies – the economy of currency board countries has only one pedal left, namely the fiscal policy. Assuming the risk of an extended comment, let us look at what happened in the four countries and what happened in Romania in the past few years in a rather unusual international context, with the euro appreciating simultaneously with the increases in farming products and energy prices. The appreciation of the euro triggered a slide of output competitiveness in the countries having their exchange rate pegged to the euro and the rises in global prices boosted domestic inflation. Currency board countries could change neither the exchange rate, nor the interest rates which are linked to euro area levels, currently standing at 4.25 percent a year.