samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The declines were also broad-based across portfolios and owed, to an extent, to sales of impaired loans by some banks. This too is welcome news, since these markets tend to be highly sensitive precisely to uncertainty. As a result, the ratio of non-performing bank loans to the resident private sector in Spain reached 3.8% in June 2022, which marked a return to recording lows following the global financial crisis. The pace of correction in Stage 2 loans – those whose borrowers continue to meet their financial obligations but show at least one indication of potential deterioration – has also quickened, with a drop of nearly 10% year-on-year in June 2022. These loans currently account for 7% of total lending to the resident private sector, still higher than pre-pandemic figures. Naturally, vulnerability is most acute in those sectors hardest hit by the pandemic and by the higher energy costs. In a similar vein, forborne loans,1 most of which are classified as Stage 2 or non-performing, were down by 7.7% to June 2022, with their share of total lending shrinking to 4.5%, again below pre-pandemic levels. Second, the profitability of the Spanish banking industry continued to improve in the first half of the year, adjusting for the extraordinary profit recorded largely as a result of the mergers that took place in 2021. Specifically, the sector’s ROE stood at 10% in H1, up by  1  Forborne loans are also typically associated with possible repayment difficulties for borrowers; indeed, more than half are classified as non-performing.

Deloitte and Central bank Audit submit a joint auditor’s report on the annual financial reporting for the Fund. The Government has submitted a draft bill recommending that the Supervisory Council should appoint an external auditor. This would be in line with international developments and best practice in this field. The Executive Board is Norges Bank’s executive authority. The Executive Board has increased its oversight of investment management in recent years. In 2006, an advisory board was set up to support the Executive Board in the field of investment management. The board comprises four experts with extensive experience from large funds and institutions managing equities, fixed income instruments and other assets. Previously, Central Bank Audit was also responsible for Norges Bank’s internal auditing. When Deloitte was made responsible for the financial auditing of the Fund’s accounts, the Executive Board’s audit committee and an internal audit unit were also established. The audit committee comprises three of the Executive Board’s external members. The committee serves as a preparatory body for the Executive Board on matters relating to risk management and internal control. In 2008, the Executive Board issued a new job description and investment mandate for the executive director of NBIM. The organisation of NBIM is based on the executive director’s responsibility and authority as general manager of NBIM, which includes reporting directly to the Executive Board and regular supervision by the governor of Norges bank on behalf of the Executive Board.
That is why the MPC has placed such weight on its forthcoming forecast round, where a comprehensive and encompassing assessment of all sources of relevant information can be made, which internalises the interactions and interdependencies among various time series. But I realise that saying all information is potentially equally important runs the risk of suggesting that all information equally unimportant. To give an insight into my decision process, some hierarchy of analysis is required. So, I will highlight here three areas that weigh heavily at present on my thinking. First, fiscal policy. Over the summer, there has been considerable news on this dimension, which the MPC only partially digested in its September policy assessment and decision. I have already mentioned the Energy Price Guarantee. Relative to where we might otherwise have expected to be early next year on the basis of wholesale gas futures prices, the introduction of the £ cap on an average energy bill directly reduces CPI inflation. Of itself, the resulting lower and flatter profile for headline inflation should diminish the risks coming from potential second round effects, and a make shift towards more inflationary psychology less likely. Against that, lower utility bills will support current household real incomes and thereby support consumption demand. With demand pressure more sustained than otherwise, inflationary pressures may prove more persistent than would have been expected. On balance, I would expect the net effect of these various channels to add to inflationary pressures at the traditional monetary policy relevant horizon of around two years.

Now that the UK Government's fiscal energy measures have been announced, the more comprehensive, integrated assessment that will be embodied in our November forecast can resume its central place in our analysis for, and communication of, monetary policy decisions. The EPG has capped the expected average energy bill at £ for the next two years, a substantially lower level than the earlier Ofgem price cap mechanism would have implied given the evolution of wholesale gas prices. Steps have also been taken to help firms. Higher gas prices will now increase the (indirect) government subsidy to energy users, rather than the utility bills they pay. This shifts the main macro risks stemming from gas price rises away from higher headline inflation and a squeeze on household real incomes towards greater pressure on the fiscal deficit and ultimately the public finances more widely. Ensuring that this shift – in concert with other fiscal policy actions – does not bring the longer-term sustainability of the public finances or respect for the wider institutional  3/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  framework for macroeconomic policy into question remains key: both in and of itself, but also because maintaining the credibility and integrity of that framework supports the effectiveness of monetary policy in pursuing its own objectives. In this context, it is welcome that the role played by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in scrutinising the Government's fiscal plans will be resumed in the forthcoming budget statement.
(2016)  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  85  Weaker competitiveness  1925  10  ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 17 FEBRUARY 2022  1927  1928  1929  0  0 1924  1925  1926  1927  1928  1929  Source: Grytten (2008)  Source: Grytten (2008)  The events around the time of the first annual address raised issues that are still relevant today. What is the role of the central bank, and how far does it extend in normal times and at times of crisis? NORGES BANK IS BANKER TO THE BANKS The central bank’s overarching goal is to promote economic stability. That lies at the core of our mission to serve the public interest. Low and stable inflation is a precondition for economic stability. Other important preconditions are stability in the financial system and a safe and efficient payment system. The banks’ settlement system, the very core of the payment system, is operated from the central bank. Norges Bank is banker to the banks. Banks can turn to us as lender of last resort when other credit channels dry up. Norges Bank conducts continuous oversight of the financial system. When large shocks hit the economy, our workday abruptly changes. The central bank then takes on a key role in stabilising the markets. Shocks stem from various sources. In the 1920s the problem was insolvent banks. The 2008 financial crisis engulfed the entire global financial system.

Caleb M Fundanga: Bank of Zambia’s Information Dissemination Programme Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, on the launch of the Bank of Zambia Information Dissemination Programme, Lusaka, 28 May 2007. *  *  *  Governor, kindly give brief introductory remarks On behalf of the Bank of Zambia Board, management and staff, and indeed on my own behalf, I wish to sincerely thank the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC) for this opportunity to launch the Bank of Zambia Information Dissemination Programme. This programme is part of our comprehensive strategy to inform the general public and all our stakeholders on the role of Bank of Zambia in the economy. What is the primary role of the Bank of Zambia? Just to remind the listeners, the Bank of Zambia’s primary role is to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure price and financial system stability. Our vision, in this regard, is to become a World Class central bank. What is your general assessment of the recent performance of the Zambian economy? In the past few years, the Zambian economy has performed relatively well, recording positive real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, with inflation and interest rates coming down. Specifically, what have been the developments in output? During the period 2001-2005, growth in real GDP averaged 5.0% per annum. More recently, in 2006, it is estimated that the economy grew by close to 6%, marking the eighth consecutive year of positive real growth in output.
Marine insurance had become a necessity for trade – without protection, a bad storm could overturn the entire fortunes of merchants. But a lack of safeguards paved the way for abuse. One particularly spectacular example involved John McDougall, a Glaswegian merchant, who arranged to have a ship called Friends (whose cargo was valued at £ deliberately shipwrecked off the coast of Denmark – but not before insuring his own stake in the voyage in five separate policies for £ and insuring the ship and other goods for £ in a further three policies. In total, he obtained eight policies on the same risk – spreading the deceit between unsuspecting underwriters across Glasgow, Dundee, Hull and London. In doing so, McDougall (and others like him), introduced a speculative spirit that threatened the more sober motives crucial to indemnification contracts 9. 7  4 Statutes of the Realm 978 (1547-1624). 8  Lewin (2003). 9  Clark (2004). 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Practices such as those described above ultimately led Parliament to take action. This first took the form of the Marine Insurance Act 1745, which rendered void marine policies made without an insurable interest. A similar provision was subsequently applied in relation to life insurance under the Life Assurance Act 1774. These Acts did leave a gap – namely, nonmarine indemnity policies. However this was filled when gambling contracts were rendered void by the Gambling Act 1845, as the existence of an insurable interest served to distinguish insurance contracts from gambling contracts.

Tarisa Watanagase: Rethinking monetary policy in a globalized world – coping with current challenges and beyond Remarks by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Central Bank of Malaysia High Level Conference 2009, Kuala Lumpur, 10 February 2009. * 1. *  *  Introduction  I would like to congratulate Bank Negara Malaysia on its 50th anniversary, and the magnificent job the Bank has done both in the domestic and international arenas. I wish the Bank continued success in the next 50 years and beyond. Thank you for the opportunity to address this distinguished audience on a topic that is a current concern for all central bankers during these turbulent times. I would like to raise a number of issues which have challenged the traditional thinking behind monetary policy as a consequence of globalization and the current turmoil. In some others I hope to propose solutions – some new, and some old. In many cases I will address the challenges and the blind spots which we face as monetary policy makers, and raise questions to which I myself do not yet know the answer. The developments that globalization has brought about has tested the limits of conventional monetary policy, both in terms of the current thinking about how monetary policy is conducted, as well as the effectiveness of the current approach to monetary policy. I will discuss these points in detail in a moment.
They will provide clear pathways on how a practitioner can undergo accredited programmes to progress him or her from the first licensing examination through to foundational skills and subsequently, advanced-level specialist training. IBF consulted the industry actively in the last year to ensure that the IBF Standards meet the demands of finance professionals of tomorrow. For instance, in risk management, the Standards will now encourage individuals to acquire deeper knowledge of the underlying businesses and their risk triggers. In compliance, individuals will learn to take on advocacy roles, so as to inculcate a stronger compliance culture within the organisation. In Technology and Operations, practitioners will be given core skills in project management and changemanagement to better facilitate process re-engineering within their organisations. Following last year’s launch of foundation programmes for Compliance, Corporate Banking and Wealth Management, IBF will be adding two new foundation programmes this year, in IT & Operations as well as Risk Management. This will enhance the opportunities for graduates or individuals with no prior experience in these areas to be able to land in and excel in such roles. In addition, IBF will launch a new integrated e-learning system over the coming year, which will help individuals use the revised Standards to undertake self-directed training and map out their professional development milestones. (V)  Leadership  Let me go on to the fifth capability that I mentioned earlier, which is leadership in finance. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  We want to develop Singaporeans for positions of leadership in tomorrow’s financial world.

However, this type of forecast has a relatively good accuracy in the short term (up to one year ahead). 6 The forecast produced by the now-casting is then entered into the large DSGE model and forms a basis for the model’s longer-term forecasts. The international forecast for all quarters is then also made outside of Ramses and entered as input into the model. As all models are simplifications of reality, however, the final analysis must always contain elements of assessment that correct the results from the model. In addition, some markets, for instance, the financial markets, are not entirely reflected in these models. 7 The latter play an important role in the current stage, which is affected substantially by the financial turbulence. General equilibrium models are an important analysis tool as they provide a consistent picture of the economy. They can therefore also be used for policy analysis and to analyse alternative scenarios. 4  F. E. Kydland and E. C. Prescott “Time to build and aggregate fluctuations”, Econometrica 50, 1982, 13451370. 5  O. J. Blanchard, “The state of macro”, NBER working paper series, August 2008. 6  See M. K. Andersson and M. Löf. Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2007:1. 7  C. E. Tovar. “DSGE models and central banks”. BIS Working Papers No 258. 2008. 2  BIS Review 121/2008  Some facts about economic cycles According to economic theory, fluctuations in growth thus arise as a result of various external shocks affecting the economy.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The emerging global regulatory paradigm Following wide-ranging discussions and consultation, the global regulatory community has made progress to strengthen the resilience of the financial system. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has strengthened global minimum capital standards as part of its Basel III Framework. The Financial Stability Board (“FSB”) has released guidelines to reduce the risks posed by systemically-important financial institutions, or “SIFIs”. MAS welcomes the Basel III reforms. They will strengthen the resilience of individual banks during periods of stress, and in doing so, contribute to banking sector stability. Basel III is a major step forward in several areas: (i)  First, it strengthens capital requirements for trading activities, off-balance sheet vehicles, securitisation, and counterparty credit derivatives. (ii)  Second, it improves the quality of capital, with a greater focus on common equity to absorb losses. (iii)  Third, it raises the level of capital that banks will have to hold to absorb losses in both going-concern and unwinding scenarios. (iv)  Fourth, it introduces international liquidity standards for the first time, to make banks more resilient to short-term funding disruptions and longer-term liquidity mismatches. The FSB is finalising its recommendations for global systemically important financial institutions, or G-SIFIs. This will comprise a package of measures, the most important of which are quite clear:   First, G-SIFIs will have to meet higher capital requirements, above the Basel III minimums. This is to reflect the greater risk that their failure would pose to the financial system.

Research done by the Basel Committee shows that banks that failed or required government capital injections during the crisis had significantly lower levels of common equity than those banks that did not. MAS will enhance the quality of regulatory capital in our banks in the following ways: (i)  There will be an explicit Common Equity Tier 1 capital adequacy requirement, to be set at 6.5%. This will be fully phased in by 1 Jan 2015. (ii)  The Tier 1 capital adequacy requirement will be increased from 6% to 8%, to be phased in over the same period. The Total capital adequacy requirement will remain unchanged at 10%. (iii)  In addition to these minimum requirements, there will be a capital conservation buffer3, set at 2.5%, to be met with Common Equity Tier 1. This will be phased in between 1 Jan 2016 and 1 Jan 2019. (iv)  The new eligibility criteria for regulatory capital will also be phased in between 1 Jan 2014 and 1 Jan 2018. With these changes, locally-incorporated banks will be required to meet capital requirements that are higher than the minimum levels in Basel III. The requirements will apply at both the bank-group and bank-solo levels. Taking into account the capital conservation buffer, locally-  3  The capital conservation buffer is a Basel III requirement for banks to maintain a capital buffer that can be used to absorb losses during periods of stress.
Consequently, some solutions can only be applied at the international level. This is why the G20 has grown in significance since 2008. We need to make further progress in international cooperation, in particular to identify the sources of global financial imbalances and reduce them via the “framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth” and to improve international financial regulation. As regards the latter, we must always bear in mind our twofold objective: enhancing financial stability while ensuring the financing of the economy. I would now like to turn to the situation in the euro area. As you know, in 2011, the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area was particularly ferocious, spilling over to countries with sound economic fundamentals. The first three months of 2012 had shown a few signs of improvement, in particular thanks to the Eurosystem initiatives and positive political impulses: pressure on sovereign debt eased slightly, and bank financing and money markets recovered somewhat. But since April, sovereign debt and banking systems have come under renewed pressure. The two main driving factors behind this deterioration are the fiscal problems and difficulties in the banking sector in Spain – but the plan adopted over the weekend should respond effectively – and, above all, the major political uncertainty in Greece. Therefore, there is a tremendous amount of work to do on a number of fronts if Europe is to find a durable solution to the crisis.

It should have three main powers: –  banking supervision (possibly the same kind of structure as the Eurosystem with one “head” and decentralised implementation);  –  deposit guarantee, with massive firepower, provided that it could collect a tax on every euro area bank and could borrow on the markets with a supranational guarantee;  –  banking resolution (crisis management). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Of course, such a leap will require numerous steps and the elimination of a large number of substantial obstacles. But what it requires most is an unfailing political will from all euro area members to progress towards a stronger and more coherent economic and monetary union. After all, the greatest advances in the European project have always come in reaction to crises. And we should remember the prediction of Jean Monnet: “Europe was born out of crises and will be the solution to these crises.”  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
This statistical information is confirmed by the quarterly survey on lending conditions which the SNB has been conducting with the 20 most important Swiss banks since the beginning of 2008. The survey shows that a third of the banks questioned tightened their lending conditions slightly. This proportion is a little higher for loans granted to large companies than those granted to small and medium-sized companies. To summarise, the situation on the bank lending market remains relatively relaxed and clearly better than that in the US or in the euro area. Nonetheless, deterioration cannot be ruled out for the future. We now move on to monetary developments. For more than eighteen months now, the demand for liquidity on the interbank market has increased substantially and – as I mentioned before – the loss of trust among banks has brought the market to a standstill. The SNB has been forced to take the place of the lending banks and provide the market with generous amounts of liquidity through a major expansion of its repo lending. Moreover, additional liquidity has been created by purchasing foreign currency on exchange rate markets and bonds issued by private sector borrowers, and by making Swiss franc funding available through swap arrangements with the European Central Bank and with the central banks of Poland and Hungary. Consequently, in May, the monetary base was up by 132% within the space of one year and now amounts to CHF 105 billion.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Recent economic and financial developments in Switzerland Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the half yearly media news conference, Berne, 18 June 2009. *  *  *  Since the beginning of the financial crisis in August 2007, our monetary policy has passed through three distinct stages. In the first stage, as the interbank market gradually dried up, we sought to protect the Swiss economy from a deterioration in conditions on the credit market. From the start of the crisis, we countered the forces pushing the level of the three-month Libor up by undertaking appropriate reductions in the repo rate. Between September 2007 and September 2008, we were able to stabilise the Libor at 2.75%. Thus we protected our economy from a rise in interest rates resulting from the increase in risk premia on the money market. Since we were confident that the economic downturn would have a moderating effect on prices, we refrained from adopting a more restrictive monetary policy, despite the fact that soaring oil prices caused inflation to rise and risked destabilising inflation expectations. The second stage began in autumn 2008 with the emergence of the first indications of a swift downturn in the economy and the sharp deterioration in the financial crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank. We rapidly relaxed our monetary policy by bringing down our Libor target by 225 basis points to a level of about 0.5% within three months.