samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In fact, economic indicators for July showed the continued expansion on both production and demand sides. Farm income from major crops was up by 69.5 percent from the same period last year, due to expansion of both production and prices of paddy rice, rubber, and oil palm. Manufacturing production also registered a satisfactory growth of 11.3 percent during the first seven months. On the demand side, private investment and consumption continued its recovery trend. Exports also expanded well in line with production expansion. Meanwhile, imports accelerated, partly in response to improvement in domestic demand. Even though this resulted in a current account deficit, strong external stability has been reflected by high level of international reserves and low external debt. For the entire 2008, the central bank’s July Inflation Report has projected a growth rate of 4.8-5.8 percent with a more moderate growth in the second half, in line with the global economy. While this forecast has already taken into account a number of key risk factors, potentially prolonged political tension and uncertainty remain a prominent one, with little known about when and how it will unwind. This is reflected in the recent plunge in consumer confidence index. In a pessimistic extreme scenario, the government budget disbursement may delay if the upcoming budget process in parliament is disrupted and mega-project investment could fall behind schedule. Prolonged disagreement could also soften domestic demand and tourism, which would be unfortunate given that the tourism high-season is approaching.

This has, in turn, affected the outlook for Thai exports as the economic prospects of Thailand’s major trading partners, such as European Union and Japan, became less positive. Overall, the impact of bleaker global economic outlook depends on the degree of decoupling from developed economies and the consensus among central bankers over the world is that it is perhaps unrealistic to assume that emerging economies in general will be able to decouple. Therefore, it is more an issue of a time lag and at the present time we must wait and see when this moment of truth arrives and what the impact will be. I believe that unless the global economy dips below what we anticipated, the impact on the Thai economy will be manageable. BIS Review 119/2008  1  At this juncture, let me emphasize that Thailand’s underlying economic fundamentals remain sound and growth momentum on track. During the first half of 2008, the Thai economy achieved a favourable growth rate of 5.7 percent, improving from the growth of 5.3 percent in the second half of last year. Even though three of the four main engines of economic growth, namely consumption, investment, and public expenditure, remained mostly subdued, the performance of net exports was notably better-than-expected. This reflected export sector’s substantial efforts to adjust to slowing global demand by diversifying into new markets. Meanwhile, on the supply side, agricultural production was the key growth contributor, due mainly to an increase in crop production in response to higher market prices.
It is also expected that the forum will result in attaining better alignment of project scope with stakeholder needs, and in particular buy-in from both private and public sector stakeholders in each country covered. Ladies and Gentlemen, this roundtable forum brings together some decision and policy makers, from both the private and public sectors of the countries covered by the project, to a single regional event representing government and central bank officials, trade and payment system experts, international development community, mobile network operators, international money operators, payment service providers, academics and researchers involved in the topics of small-scale cross-border trade and payment services. I am very positive that the symposium shall achieve the stated objectives and wish to encourage you to actively and freely participate in the deliberations. With these few words, Ladies and Gentlemen, I declare this roundtable symposium open. Thank you! 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

If the economy is stronger, and we see a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market sooner, we’ll end up doing less. From my perspective, linking our purchases more closely to economic outcomes underlines our determination to generate the kind of recovery that will deliver more rapid progress toward maximum employment in the context of price stability. So what does “substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market” mean to me? Note that I will be focusing on the outlook, not just the current state of labor market conditions. In that context, it wouldn’t be enough for me just to see the unemployment rate decline a bit. It would also matter why the unemployment rate is declining and whether that improvement is likely to be sustained in the future. For example, higher payroll growth that was not supported by stronger economic growth, or falling unemployment rates that were due mainly to declining participation in the labor market, would not likely meet my test. Therefore, to gauge how substantial the improvement in the outlook for the labor market is, I will be looking at a range of indicators, including the unemployment rate, payrolls, the participation rate, the employment to population ratio and job finding rates, as well as the growth momentum within the economy. As we approach year-end, the maturity extension program in which we are increasing our holdings of long-dated Treasuries will be coming to an end.
Banking sector debt amounting to nearly 2.7 billion US dollars is maturing in the last quarter of this year, that is, less even than the reserves accumulated from April to date. Meanwhile, the total external debt of the banking sector overall amounts to some 13 billion dollars, the equivalent to 60% of total reserves. The level of Central Bank reserves is sufficient to back the normal operation of the financial system, in particular its needs for foreign funding. The Chilean financial system must be capable of securing funds in international markets, a feature it has displayed for several years already. However, should access to foreign funds and liquidity complicate further, the Central Bank is well prepared and equipped to take decisive action. Precisely the levels of international reserves can do the job. International reserve management To administer international reserves, the Central Bank has separate responsibilities at various hierarchical levels, complying with international recommendations on the matter, and which have been evaluated by the IMF. In addition, internal and independent auditors perform periodical audits to review the Bank’s investment procedures. An internal middle office is in charge of monitoring compliance with the investment guidelines and parameters defined by the Board, on a daily basis. This year, the investment policy for internally managed reserves has been revised on two occasions, which resulted in updating the benchmark comparison, credit risk, and portfolio  2  BIS Review 123/2008  duration, to better safeguard the Bank’s assets and address international markets’ volatility.

José De Gregorio: The international financial crisis and its impact on the Chilean economy Speech by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, presented before the Honorable Senate of the Republic, Santiago de Chile, 8 October 2008. *  *  *  Mr. President of the Senate, In response to your invitation to participate in this special session of the Honorable Senate, I would like to share with this audience our vision on the severe financial crisis the world economy is enduring, as well as its implications on our country. The world financial crisis and international growth The financial crisis being experienced by developed countries is the outcome of a period of stability, with abundant liquidity, fast economic growth and an asset price bubble. This combination of aggregate factors yields, as it frequently happens, to a cycle of high credit growth. The problem is that this occurred during an extremely accelerated process of financial innovation in market segments that were poorly or ambiguously regulated – mainly in the US. Low interest rates prompted an intense search for higher returns. Individuals with little or no ability to repay were lent for housing and, to reduce risks, credits were securitized and often taken out of the banks’ balance sheets (i.e. Structured Investment Vehicles and conduits). Money was lent on the assumption that housing prices would continue on the rise, so the mortgage was all that was needed to relax lending standards.
In the recent past the velocity has been declining, while multiplier has hovered between 5.0-5.2. In 2007, this trend is expected to continue. 8  BIS Review 8/2007  Table 1 Quarterly targets for reserve money Rs. billion Dec. 2006  Reserve Money Point to Point Change %  2007 Targets  Target  Actual  Mar  Jun  Sep  Dec  227.6  239.8  254.6  250.4  257.8  267.6  15.0  21.2  17.3  17.9  16.1  11.6  Table 2 Indicative targets for broad money (M2b) Rs. billion Dec. 2006  Broad Money (M2b) Point to Point Change %  2007 Targets  Target  Estimates  Mar  Jun  Sep  Dec  1,175.6  1,221.6  1,274.9  1,291.4  1,315.9  1,383.2  15.0  19.5  19.2  19.0  17.9  13.2  The programme also allows for a Broad money growth of 17.6 per cent from the targeted level of Broad money at end 2006. This will reflect an increase in Net Foreign Assets of the banking system of US dollars 200 million, and increase in private sector credit by Rs 147.3 billion (15.5 per cent) and net credit to Government by Rs 16.7 billion. To maintain the overall increase in net credit to the Government at Rs 16.7 billion, net credit to the Government from commercial banks would need to be maintained at Rs 5.2 billion.

I cannot finish without reminding you that tomorrow is the 300th anniversary of the birth of Benjamin Franklin, arguably the greatest of the American founding fathers. During his lengthy stays in England, Benjamin Franklin visited Kent many times. To celebrate his tercentenary the American Brewing Association has produced a new recipe for Franklin’s favourite beer. The hops recommended for the recipe are Kent Goldings. Despite the fears of the demonstrators on Hop Saturday in 1908, the Kent hop industry has not disappeared altogether. The area under planting is certainly much smaller, but research in centres such as Wye College has produced the new hedgerow hops which are recognised worldwide. Employment in Kent, though, has moved into new and more productive sectors. Adapting to changes in the external environment is not easy for any of us- whether running a business or setting monetary policy - but if we do adjust the benefits will accrue, if not to everyone immediately then to the great majority over the years to come. BIS Review 9/2006  3
I wish you all the very best of luck as you embark on your careers. I would be happy to take a few questions. 1 James Bergin, Erin Kelly, Lev Menand, Thomas Noone, Brett Phillips, Joseph Sommer, Joseph Tracy, Shawei  Wang and Jennifer Wolgemuth assisted in preparing these remarks. 2 See Michael Power, The Risk Management of Everything: Rethinking the Politics of Uncertainty (2004), 37–38  (“Afunctional explanation for the phenomenon suggests that the emergence of a systematic, generic and broad approach to risk management is a rational response to the fact that the environment of individuals and organizations, indeed the world, has become genuinely ‘more risky.’”). 3 Richard Dzina, Advancing the Fed’s Wholesale Services in an Era of Unprecedented Challenge and Change,  Remarks at Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s Operations Conference and Exhibition 2017, Boca Raton, Florida, May 9, 2017. 4 Final Report of Neal Batson, In re Enron Corp., No. 01–16034 (S.D.N.Y. Bankr. Nov. 4, 2003), at 115. 5 Association of the Bar of the City of New York, “Report of the Task Force on the Lawyer’s Role in Corporate 6/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Governance” (2006), 95. 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches

Infact, not so long ago on December 10, 2008, I was invited to officially open the Standard Chartered Solwezi Branch. I have no doubt that with the current expansion strategy; the bank will reach greater heights. However, you will all agree with me that those who have more should do more. I therefore look forward to seeing more from Standard Chartered Bank Zambia, it being such a leading bank in Zambia. 2  BIS Review 4/2009  Hon. Minister, it is my sincere hope that the Falls Park Agency will live up to the expectations of the Livingstone community. Once again, I would like to thank Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, through the acting Managing Director, Mr Bairstow for inviting me to witness the official opening of this agency. I thank you. BIS Review 4/2009  3
The results we have obtained in the last year have been quite better than the world’s average and much better than we projected a year ago. But there is still a long road ahead before we achieve the stage of development we all wish for. Besides, the present situation poses significant risks. Coordination with every organization in charge of policies is critical to succeed in meeting this challenge. If the economy continues to grow above trend, or spending exceeds our true possibilities, especially in some sectors, some imbalances may be incubated that may generate significant vulnerabilities and require costly adjustments going forward. Our history has  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  taught us how difficult these adjustments can be, and we must do everything in our power to avoid revisiting these situations. More so considering that these events hit the most vulnerable population hardest. As I have said on previous opportunities, Chile enjoys a high international reputation in many circles. The laudatory words about our economy recently uttered by the IMF’s Managing Director attest to that. Our country stands out for its soundness, its good macroeconomic management and the functioning of its institutions. This is an important asset, especially in a small country geographically distant from economic centers, so that should be valued and nurtured. Our duty is to protect this reputation and conduct policies that allow maintaining sustainable development of the economy economic aiming to achieve greater welfare of our country.

Spain ranks above EU averages in 4 out of 5 of these indicators. In particular, Spain ranks 4th in the digital public services which focuses particularly on e-Government and e-Health services. In sharp contrast, Spain ranks in 17th position in the Human Capital dimension, which measures the skills needed to take advantage of the possibilities offered by digital technologies. All in all, these figures suggest that there is room to improve the global position of Spain in terms of both innovation activities and digitalisation, especially as regards human capital. This is especially relevant for the Spanish economy, which show low levels of firm productivity in comparison with their European peers. Let me conclude by saying that I am sure that the presentations in this conference will be the basis of fruitful discussions on key aspects of digitalisation and investment in intangible assets in Spain, such as its evolution and drivers, the existence of barriers and the best way to support those activities. These discussions will be very useful to enrich the policy debate  10  Eurostat (2019): Statistics on research and development COTEC (2019): Informe COTEC. Innovación en España 12 Eurostat (2019): Statistics on research and development 13 European Commission (2019): The Digital Economy and Society Index 2019 11  5/6  around these highly relevant issues. With this expectation, I wish you a very pleasant and constructive conference. Thank you for your attention. 6/6
The inflation outlook is therefore favourable, as can be seen in the chart at the right, which looks past the changes in value-added tax that could possibly be implemented in the near future. Chart 3  “Missing” inflation Headline inflation has been below the Central Bank’s target for nearly four years, even though the negative output gap closed and then turned positive some time ago and wages have risen well in excess of what, in an average year, would be deemed consistent with the inflation target. This is not a unique case, however. In international circles, there is widespread discussion of “missing” inflation, which generally refers to the fact that wage rises are astoundingly small given the business cycle position in the country concerned. For example, countries as dissimilar as the US and Sweden are considered to be at full employment, yet wage increases are smaller than is consistent with the inflation target. In some countries, such as the US, this may be partly because the slack in the labour market is actually larger than conventional measurements indicate, as the labour participation rate is historically rather low. But this does not tell the whole tale, and in some countries it is not a very robust explanation.

The assessment methodology this time around will be different from the previous two assessments. It will not only depend on how good we are in achieving technical compliance to the international standards by having the necessary laws, regulations and policies in place, but importantly, the focus of the assessment will be placed on the effectiveness of AML/CFT measures being implemented taking into consideration the risk and context of money laundering and terrorism financing risks in Malaysia. It is important for me to stress that an overall positive rating in the assessment will strengthen the confidence in our financial system and therefore the country’s economic development. Our success in meeting the shared goal of protecting the integrity of our financial system against criminal abuse will continue to depend on the cooperation among the regulators, the financial industry and the law enforcement authorities. I am sure that this conference will provide a meaningful platform for all of you to engage, and importantly, to strengthen our risk management capabilities and in promoting higher level of integrity in our business conducts and operations. On that note, I wish all of you a fruitful conference. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
In addition, financial institutions should maintain the limits on  3  working capital facilities up to that same date for all customers that have a guaranteed loan and comply with the eligibility requirements. This Royal Decree has also extended the insolvency moratorium, which was set to expire on 31 December this year, to 14 March 2021, with the aim of preventing firms that continue to experience temporary, pandemic-related financial difficulties from having to file for insolvency. This measure aims to reduce the risk of viable firms being eventually wound up, with the impact this would have both on the productive system and in terms of job losses. The available evidence suggests that the economic policy measures taken have helped to ease firms’ financing conditions, which contrasts with what was seen in the international financial crisis that began in 2008. It is a consequence not only of the swift and forceful economic policy response, but also of the better financial situation of the banking system and, in particular, of the larger capital buffers built up by the banks in recent years that have enabled them to absorb losses in their credit portfolios. The different nature of the current crisis has probably also been a determinant in this respect. In any event, since 2020 Q2 firms have resorted to debt on highly favourable terms to cover part of the increase in their liquidity needs. Specifically, between February and September, the outstanding amount of corporate sector debt rose by almost 5%.

And although at this stage it is difficult to define the magnitude and scope of these changes, it is essential they be identified promptly, since economic policy cannot provide indefinite support for firms that are headed for a structural reduction in their activity. Rather, it should aim to encourage and support the adaptation of the productive system to the new reality and the efficient cross-sectoral and cross-firm reallocation of resources. Moreover, the outlook for the Spanish economy and, therefore, for the business sector remains very dependent on the still highly uncertain course of the pandemic. Since the beginning of July, the strength of the recovery has been adversely affected by the fresh outbreaks of the virus in our country and, more recently, by the worsening of the epidemiological situation both in Spain and in most of Europe. This has prompted the relatively widespread introduction of new restrictions on mobility and activity in certain sectors. Accordingly, economic activity in this final stretch of the year and in early 2021 will foreseeably be less dynamic than was anticipated in the baseline scenarios published a few months ago by the Banco de España and the ECB for Spain and the euro area, respectively.2 By contrast, the latest news on the availability of a vaccine for early 2021 is clearly positive and, if confirmed, should help raise confidence and rule out the most adverse economic scenarios, even though the effects on activity will not be immediate.