samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In addition, new labour market statistics show that seasonally-adjusted unemployment amounted to 8 per cent in August. The next Monetary Policy Report will not be published for a while yet, but at the Riksbank we are already working with new analyses and forecasts. Ahead of the monetary policy meeting on 23 October I will weigh these factors against each other, but also take account of any additional information that becomes available before then in order to arrive at a new assessment. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 8 Low but gradually increasing inflation CPI and CPIF, annual percentage change 5  5 CPIF  4  4  CPI  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2 07  09  11  13  15  Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Good development in the short term, sustainable in the long term I hope that in my speech today I have been able to convey my thinking on monetary policy at the two latest monetary policy meetings and how I view the current situation. The repo rate is low at present. The Riksbank’s forecasts show that inflation will reach 2 per cent within the forecast period at the same time as resource utilisation will improve. Although the global economy is weak at the moment, the preconditions for a recovery are in place.

Economic activity improving When it comes to the prospects for higher demand from the euro countries following the debt crisis and all the structural problems, I have become gradually less pessimistic over the last 12 months. This is for example because several highly-indebted countries have made progress in reducing their budget deficits. The Swedish crisis of the 1990s made a great impression on me as an economist and my experience from that period tells me that when households and companies see that the worst problems are over and that the situation is being managed then there is potential for increased confidence about the future, which we have also seen in recent months. This is despite the fact that unemployment is still high and that the recovery of economic activity in these countries is starting from a low level. Of course a lot remains to be done and here the responsibility primarily lies with the politicians in the respective countries. The euro area’s common monetary policy is an important tool for easing the readjustment, but it cannot correct all the causes of the crisis. This requires decisions at the national level in order to come to terms with weak public finances and to change economic and political structures so that competitiveness is improved. It has long been the Riksbank’s assessment that the crisis can be resolved in an orderly way and that economic growth will gradually improve.
Gent Sejko: Welcome remarks - 16th SEE Economic Research Workshop Welcome remarks by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the 16th SEE Economic Research Workshop, Tirana, 5 December 2022. *** Your Excellency Ambassador Huber, Dear guests and speakers from central banks, academia and research institutions, Dear colleagues, Welcome in the 16th South-Eastern European Economic Research Workshop. It is a great pleasure hosting this event in-person this year, as we hoped in the last workshop, even though only partially, after two years of holding its proceeds virtually. One lesson learned and adopted from the pandemic, in a broader dimension, was how to operate in a virtual environment and ensure that all our participants can be fully engaged in these proceedings-whether you're here in person or joining us virtually. I take this opportunity to extend my appreciation to all of you for your continuous dedication and precious contribution. I'm really grateful that this initiative, which has started 16 years ago, has grown and has taken such dimensions, by enforcing and extending over the years the cooperation between central bankers, academics and policymakers not only within the SEE region, but from all over the world. As in many prestigious central banks, even at the Bank of Albania, the economic research has an important role in its overall activity, by providing continuous support to both policy design and implementation processes through the novel and sophisticated empirical tools adopted for policy analysis and forecasting.

The BIS recently underlined this complementarity between public and commercial money in its report published on Friday. I would therefore like us to build a public/private partnership. The potential impacts on the banking industry and financial stability could be controlled using different means: for example, by having the retail central bank digital currency distributed by the banks, directly to individuals; and by limiting the amount of digital euro in circulation to prevent an excessive conversion of deposited commercial bank money into CBDC. ** In conclusion, I would like to repeat a conviction: Fintechs are no longer separate from the world of finance. They are transforming the practices of financial institutions, their relations with customers – we can see it clearly with payments – as well as their relations with supervisory authorities: new technologies are useful not only for improving crisis prevention and management, but also for optimising the work of the supervisor. We are talking about Regtech and Suptech. All these dimensions will be taken into account in the Banque de France’s next strategic plan, “Building 2024 together”. Thank you for your attention. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Nevertheless, I believe that more must be done in this field, especially since at least some parts of the world economy have seen something of a productivity shock in recent years. I am deliberately avoiding the buzzword “new economy” here, since history has been full of expressions like that ever since the turn of the 19th century. The discussion about monetary policy and a productivity shock is taking place mostly in the United States, in the light of the impressive economic performance there and the acceleration in the rate of productivity growth. So one could certainly ask: what about the rest of the world? The possibility of a productivity breakthrough also in other parts of the world cannot of course be ruled out. Higher - or accelerating - productivity growth does indeed pose new challenges for monetary policy. It could set in motion a complex of effects on aggregate supply and demand, on inflation, equity prices and interest rates. Just to give a few examples, let me briefly mention the following effects. First, a positive productivity shock raises the economy’s potential growth rate. It also affects aggregate demand through new, profitable investment opportunities, higher equity prices and expectations among households of higher permanent income. One question for policymakers is whether the demand effects are so powerful that they have the potential to outpace the growth of aggregate supply in the short and medium perspective. Second, there could be temporary disinflation effects at work if the increase in productivity is unexpected initially.

Inflation has fallen to single digit, while the exchange rate has remained relatively stable. In 2011 inflation closed at 7.2% from 7.9% in 2010. In February 2012, inflation was recorded at 6.0%;  iii. The financial sector has also recorded tremendous growth since the commencement of liberal economic and financial policies in the early 1990s; and  iv. Equally, positive developments have been registered in the payment systems. I must caution though that sustaining macroeconomic stability remains a key challenge in the face of a weak global economic outlook and limited domestic resources. It is important that we all keep an eye on economic developments with a view to striking a balance between wealth redistribution on one hand and sustaining the required investment and economic growth on the other. Ladies and gentlemen, in the recent past, we have witnessed a number of work stoppages as workers press for increased remuneration. In this regard, I wish to urge the Union leadership to be wary of sparking a wage price spiral because this may cause a rise in inflation. As you may be aware, high inflation is detrimental to our economy because of the following reasons: i. Makes Planning difficult for economic agents;  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  ii. Companies and consumers are unable to draw up effective investment and expenditure plans;  iii. Government is also unable to make good projections of revenue collections and thus unable to effectively plan its current and capital expenditures;  iv.
The challenge before us is how then should the financial system be developed and regulated so that these pitfalls will be avoided while at the same time remaining dynamic and innovative so that we can push our frontiers and gain the progress that we aspire. While innovation remains essential to economic progress, it needs to be within the context of stronger governance and sound risk management practices. Positive innovation can make enormous contributions to economic performance. The financial system has to deliver the essential financial services that would cater to the financial needs of all sectors of the economy – from households, small and medium enterprises, including to micro enterprises and to the corporate sector. The financial system also has to take into account the fundamental changes taking place in the global economy and the growing participation of emerging economies in the global economy. As we become more interlinked, financial systems also need to become more internationalized to facilitate and reinforce this trend. The role of the financial system is essentially to effectively intermediate and to meaningfully mobilize funds including from across borders to be channeled to productive economic activity. Such intermediation must be firmly anchored and aligned to the objective of generating sustainable and balanced growth, raising the standards of living, creating employment and promoting development. With clarity in the role of the financial system and the importance of its link to the economy, the range of the financial solutions offered needs to meet these highly differentiated and changing requirements.

The emerging economies will be the key drivers of economic transformation over the next decades, both within and across borders resulting in a more integrated global economy. It is therefore imperative that efforts are increased in ensuring collaboration and sharing of experience for the common good. The Langkawi International Dialogue continues to be an important platform for such exchanges and it is a great honour for me to have this opportunity to be here today. Thank You. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
8  See Monnet, Jean (1976): “Memoires”. BIS Review 87/2010  5

It also gives due protection to the consumers of Islamic finance, ensures the enforceability of Islamic financial contracts and provides an effective mechanism for legal redress. The legal framework for Islamic finance also needs to address any specific elements that could result in a comparative disadvantage to the industry. More specifically, in a world in which finance has long been defined by conventional practices and laws, the features that are unique to the requirements of Islamic finance need to be taken into account to ensure neutrality of treatment. In Malaysia, the rapid evolution of Islamic finance has been supported by the development of a comprehensive legal infrastructure. A series of legislation since 1983 has provided the foundation for a regulatory regime for Islamic banks, takaful operators, the Shariah Council for Islamic finance, Islamic finance windows in conventional banks and the various forms of bond and money market instruments. In addition, the corporate, securities and insolvency laws and guidelines are compatible with the Shariah. These legislation have been reinforced by the establishment of a dedicated High Court bench to provide a comprehensive adjudicative system to deal with disputes involving Islamic finance. In addition, the new Islamic Finance Arbitration Rules of the Kuala Lumpur Regional Centre for Arbitration provides a customised mechanism for the resolution of disputes in the Islamic financial services sector. The development of an efficient and vibrant Islamic financial market Equally important to the development of Islamic finance is not only the financial intermediaries but also the Islamic financial markets.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Thoughts and visions on Islamic finance Welcoming remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Malaysia Showcase Dinner, Manama, 3 May 2010. *  *  *  I have the distinct honour today to welcome distinguished guests to the Malaysia Showcase Dinner, organized in conjunction with the 7th Islamic Financial Services Board Summit. Let me first of all express our appreciation to H.E. Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad for accepting our invitation to speak at this event, sharing his thoughts and vision on Islamic finance moving forward. Tun Mahathir needs no introduction. During his twenty two years of leadership, Malaysia experienced modernization and economic prosperity. Malaysia is today a forward looking nation that continues to sustain its economic performance. During the recent unprecedented international financial and economic crisis in 2008 and 2009, the Asian region has demonstrated remarkable resilience. The Asian economies have strong fundamentals with low public debt levels, providing flexibility to the governments in the region to implement large fiscal stimulus. In addition, strong and well capitalized financial institutions prevented disruption to credit flows to the private sector. In addition, the household and the corporate sectors in Asia are not over leveraged, thus are in a better position to sustain consumption and business activity. Asia is also not confronted by widespread unemployment. Malaysia is very much part of this strong and vibrant region. For Malaysia, the economic recovery is expected to continue to gain further strength in 2010.

The internationalisation of Islamic finance has observed the strengthening of ties between Asia and the Middle East in trade and investments in the recent years. The early trade ties allowed the Old Silk Road to flourish. Today, Islamic finance involving financial flows between the two regions has revived and revitalized these economic ties that generate mutually reinforcing growth prospects for both regions. The emergence of new financial centres in Asia and the Middle East and their increased integration has strengthened the foundations for a New Silk Road. It has also opened up and extended this potential to  BIS Review 60/2010  1  developed economies to forge stronger financial linkages with the growth regions of Asia and the Middle East. Our ties with Bahrain have long been cemented with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Central Bank of Bahrain and the Central Bank of Malaysia in 2001 to jointly develop Islamic finance. There is a presence of institutions from Bahrain with interest in institutions in Malaysia and from Malaysia in Bahrain, since 2001. In Malaysia, they have become part of more than 150 entities that participate in our Islamic financial system that offers the spectrum of Islamic products and services. While Islamic finance has demonstrated its resilience during the challenging period, continuous efforts are being taken to further strengthen its resilience and facilitate effective liquidity management across border.
These forces, which are partly external and partly domestic, have masked the relationship between economic slack and inflation, and have been reinforced by a weakening of inflation expectations. 2 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Forces slowing down inflation in the euro area economy2 The euro area recovery has been characterised by a disconnect between economic activity and inflation – which some have referred to as a “missing inflation puzzle”. This disconnect becomes visible, for instance, when comparing actual growth and inflation outcomes for 2016 with those anticipated in the ECB staff macroeconomic projections of March 2014. The real GDP growth rate, which stood at 1.7% in 2016, essentially confirmed the March 2014 projection. HICP inflation, by contrast, turned out to be more than 1 percentage point below the rate projected in March 2014; and measures of core inflation, which strip out the direct disinflationary impact of the collapse of commodity prices over this period, have remained at 0.9%, about half the rate projected earlier. This picture points to pronounced disinflationary forces that have confounded attempts to forecast the impact of improved economic conditions on inflation. Where do these forces come from? Do they pertain to cyclical influences that monetary policy can offset? Do they reflect broader structural shifts in the economy that the central bank is forced to watch as a bystander?

Technological advancements, while also reducing distribution costs, can limit firms’ pricing power by facilitating price discovery by customers. For example, the advent of online retail platforms has greatly increased price transparency among consumers as the share of people searching for information online has risen continuously in the euro area. The downward pressure on mark-ups and, hence, prices associated with the spread of e-commerce is consistent with an erosion of euro area firms’ profit margins, which did not return to their pre-crisis levels until late 2014. Empirical analysis does not, however, find robust evidence that mark-up shocks have been a particularly dominant determinant of disinflationary tendencies since the crisis. In any case, these forces are only temporary: they can move inflation away from its long-run trend, even for a protracted period of time, but cannot affect trend inflation itself, unless they infiltrate inflation expectations. It is through inflation expectations that shocks to the inflation formation process which would otherwise have no relevance for a central bank can become a monetary policy problem. This brings me to the third element in the Phillips curve – its intercept – which is determined by inflation expectations. Inflation expectations In normal conditions, longer-term inflation expectations should be unaffected by transitory shocks, which typically dissipate over the medium term. However, recurrent shocks leading to a protracted period of low inflation can be misinterpreted as a lasting decline in trend inflation, and could jeopardise public faith in the central bank’s commitment or ability to deliver on its objective.
Jan F Qvigstad: On the topic of keeping promises Speech by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a seminar arranged by Norges Bank and Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi (The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters), Oslo, 11 November 2008. * 1. *  *  Why is keeping promises so difficult? This house, which now belongs to the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, was built by Hans Rasmus Astrup in 1886-87. Astrup was an entrepreneur. At the age of 20, he left Norway for Barcelona on a ship laden with a cargo of dried cod. He gradually built up a large trading business and later became an industrialist, not unlike businessmen of our own era. 1 For innovators and the business sector, a stable operating environment has always been important, providing a foundation for adaptation, economic growth and social progress. A stable value of money is also a component of this foundation. We were taught as children to keep our promises. If we made a promise, we had to make good on it. But we were also taught that we should not promise too much. If we do not keep our word, others lose confidence in us and our credibility takes a toll. In recent months, we have witnessed that this is of particular importance for the financial system. A proximate example is the situation in our neighbouring country Iceland.

Today, I intend to speak above all about the new results from the analysis of the Riksbank’s data on the debts of individual’s and households and explain how these relate to other studies of household indebtedness. I also want to explain why the results should be viewed in the light of the vulnerabilities in the Swedish financial system. Let me begin, however, by saying a few words about why household debt is a cause of concern to the Riksbank at all. 1  International stakeholders, for example the IMF, the OECD and the EU, have also been concerned. The risks associated with high household indebtedness have also been discussed at other central banks. The Riksbank warned about these risks already prior to the financial crisis (see, for example the speech made by Stefan Ingves on 4 October 2013). BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Household debt can threaten sustainable growth The Riksbank has long pointed out the risks associated with the development of household debt. When household debt is analysed, the debts are usually placed in relation to something else. As most households pay their borrowing costs using their current incomes rather than their assets, the debt ratio, that is debts in relation to disposable incomes, is often used as an illustrative measure of risk. 2 Since 1995, the aggregate household debt ratio, that is total household debt as a percentage of disposable income, has increased from 90 to 174 per cent, and it is expected to continue to increase in the years immediately ahead.