samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Additionally, our Comprehensive Assessment and stress tests have been rigorous and thorough; this means that banks’ balance sheet problems are being dealt with and that the necessary transparency will be provided on the health of European banks. This is in contrast to the pronounced balance sheet problems of Japan in the 1990s. Finally, a number of euro area countries have implemented structural reforms to increase their competitiveness. Clearly, these efforts now need to gain momentum to achieve higher sustainable growth and employment in the euro area. In this context, it is also essential that governments conduct fiscal adjustment that is growth-friendly. Economists and politicians in Lithuania sometimes voice concerns that the economic benefits of being part of the euro area are offset by the rising costs of having the euro, e.g. with the implementation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, contributions by Member States to the European Stability Mechanism, etc. What would your response BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  be to these concerns? Why does Lithuania need to be part of the euro area despite those costs? Joining the euro area is not a free lunch: it entails significant obligations, but many benefits at the same time. The obligations are stated very clearly in the Treaty and in EU regulations. In this respect, compared with those countries that joined in the first wave of entry, Lithuania has the advantage of joining a stronger euro area. The euro area has painfully recognised the flaws in its original design and taken major steps to repair them.

Jean-Pierre Roth: No frontiers in monetary policy – from the fight to avoid internationalisation of the currency to the internationalisation of monetary policy Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Swiss Institute of International Studies, Zurich, 6 May 2009. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  In view of the challenges with which it has been faced, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) demonstrated its adaptability time and again. Over the past thirty years, for instance, it abandoned its endeavours to prevent the use of the Swiss franc as an international currency. Moreover, it has gradually incorporated international elements into its monetary policy strategy and its monetary policy instruments. The goal when making these adjustments was always to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in order to protect the country from any inflationary trend. In managing the current crisis, both the internationalised monetary policy strategy and the internationalised policy instruments have served the SNB well thus far. BIS Review 552009  1
Pharmaceutical companies and merchanting For some time now, the Swiss current account surplus has primarily been driven by two industries: pharmaceuticals and merchanting. 8 It is notable that net exports for these two industries have increased strongly over the last ten years despite the appreciation of the Swiss franc. This stands in contrast to many industries (e.g. machinery and tourism), which are exchange rate-sensitive and have suffered noticeably as a result of the strong franc. The decline in net exports for these industries has been largely offset by the positive developments in pharmaceuticals and merchanting. Chart 7 presents the nominal change in net exports in selected manufacturing and services industries as well as merchanting from 2007 to 2016. The net exports of goods and of services are represented by the red bars at the bottom of the chart. Net exports of goods went up by CHF 23 billion from 2007 to 2016. As already stated, this increase can mainly be attributed to pharmaceuticals and merchanting. Despite the strong appreciation of the Swiss franc, net exports in both of these industries rose sharply during this period. Why is this? In recent years, the pharmaceutical industry has profited from a growing demand for healthcare products from all over the world. The demand for these products is only slightly impacted by the price and/or exchange rate. At the same time, Switzerland has developed into a leading hub in the global commodities trade. Merchanting is also much more dependent on global economic trends than on the exchange rate.

As a result of all of these factors, the current account reported for Switzerland is not a good measure for assessing trade flows and changes in the international investment position or a suitable metric on which to base monetary policy. The Swiss current account cannot be used either to assess the fair external value of the Swiss franc or to adequately reflect the risks in relation to price stability and economic development. Therefore, the SNB does not base its monetary policy on the current account. Page 13/13  High Swiss current account surplus: consequences for SNB monetary policy?
European companies therefore need loans that are less secured, but also, for business start-ups and growing businesses, more equity capital. Indeed, equity capital has two advantages: it gives the entrepreneur access to long-term funds while also offering investors strong upside potential to reward the risk incurred. A catching-up economy – like Europe until the 1980s, and many emerging countries today – can finance its growth through debt. An economy at the technological frontier, which carries greater risk, must rely more on equity financing. However, in the euro area, companies’ financing structure remains predominantly based on debt rather than equity. By comparison, the net equity of non-financial corporations represents 123% of GDP in the United States, against 52% in the euro area. This transatlantic divide, which is hardly ever mentioned, is even larger than the gap in rates of debt disintermediation: the well-known figure of 20% of capital market financing in Europe compared with 75% in the United States. b) With regard to debt, France’s situation currently appears on the whole satisfactory. Bank financing remains easily accessible. Indeed, in terms of volume, outstanding bank loans to businesses are rising at a faster pace in France than anywhere else in Europe, posting growth of 4.5% year-on-year at end-November 2015, compared with +2.1% in the United Kingdom, +1.0% in Germany, 0.0% in Italy and an average of +0.9% for the euro area.

But it is a vital part of that transformation, and I am pleased that this conference is giving it the consideration it deserves. Thank you for your attention. 1  4  P. Asdrubali, B. E. Sorensen and O. Yosha, “Channels of interstate risk sharing: United States 1963–1990”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 111, 1996, Oxford University Press. BIS central bankers’ speeches
Since the revision of the National Bank Act in 2004, hardly any legal constraints have been set on the SNB’s leeway for investment. The SNB uses this leeway to achieve the optimum possible portfolio structure. Corporate bonds, for instance, were already introduced as an asset class in 2004, and equities in 2005. With the marked expansion of the balance sheet in the past few years, diversification has become increasingly important. In this respect, the SNB goes further than is common practice for central banks. For reasons of diversification, it is constantly evaluating new asset classes, currencies and investment opportunities in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Last year, for instance, the SNB expanded its investment universe to take in both Chinese government bonds and emerging market corporate equities. The SNB’s investment and risk control process is constructed using principles similar to those applied by large institutional asset managers. As you will see in slide 4, it can be split  2  Foreign exchange reserves consist of foreign currency investments minus repo transactions conducted for investment policy purposes and other foreign currency liabilities. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  up into roughly five steps – investment policy, investment strategy, definition of guidelines and benchmarks, implementation (including tactical allocation of assets and portfolio management), and risk control. The SNB’s investment policy provides the framework for the management of assets and defines the overriding investment objectives.

I am convinced that, under the circumstances, the SNB’s monetary policy is currently the approach that best serves Switzerland’s overall interests in the long term. At our most recent quarterly monetary policy assessment, we therefore decided to maintain our expansionary monetary policy. The interest rate on sight deposits at the SNB is unchanged at –0.75%. At the same time, the SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market, in order to influence exchange rate developments where necessary. Despite a slight depreciation, the Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued and this is reflected in economic activity. Last year, the Swiss economy only recorded year-on-year growth of just under 1%. For this year, we expect growth of between 1% and 1.5%. Uncertainty is high, however, and conditions remain difficult. Last year, inflation was very low, at –1.1%, due in large part to the slump in oil prices and the appreciation of the Swiss franc following the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate. The impact of both variables is temporary. For this year, we expect an inflation rate of –0.8%. In the SNB’s view, it is essential that, in the medium term, inflation returns to the range compatible with price stability. And, according to our current inflation forecast, that is what will happen. As you can see from slide 12, we are expecting that, given an unchanged threemonth Libor of –0.75%, the inflation rate will return to positive territory next year. This brings me to the end of my speech.
The non-performing loan ratio has continued its downward trend despite the supply and demand shocks caused by the pandemic and stands at 11,2 percent as at June 2022, with total non-performing loans amounting to € which is the lowest level observed since 2014 when the definition was harmonised across the European Union. The current situation is therefore encouraging. But we should not fall into a complacency trap. Even though the banking sector exhibits significant reduction in NPLs, the progress has not been similar across the banking system with the smaller Banks lacking behind. Moreover, the risk of new defaults is increased in the current economic outlook. The elevated levels of inflation, in combination with the increasing interest rates, are expected to reduce net household income, which might ultimately hamper borrowers' repayment ability. The banking sector should continue to practice prudent policies and sensible risk management while being flexible to address the challenges that will arise. In a rather volatile period following two consecutive crises, it is vital that the banking sector adapt its business strategies to the new realities. This will be a challenging task as, it requires significant investment, cultural change and contribution of different stakeholders. Being mindful of time, I will focus on only three factors, which encompass the above challenges. 3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The first is transforming the banking business model towards technologically advanced services with digitization being the focus of this effort.

Looking further out, price inflation is projected to drift down further to a level notably below wage inflation. Chart 4 Policy rate raised from a very low level  The policy rate was cut to zero during the pandemic in order to cushion the downturn in the Norwegian economy. When we saw that economic conditions were normalising, we embarked on a gradual normalisation of the policy rate. But when the labour market tightened and the inflation outlook indicated that inflation might run above target for some time, it was appropriate to raise the policy rate faster in order to bring down inflation. Monetary policy is starting to have a tightening effect on the Norwegian economy. We do not know with certainty what the peak policy rate will be, but we believe we are approaching that level. This may imply a more gradual approach to policy rate setting ahead. Chart 5 A somewhat faster rate rise Our projections are based on a rise in the policy rate to around 3 percent in the course of winter. With this path for the policy rate, the interest rate on housing loans may move up to between 4 and 4½ percent. The reason the rate path is little changed since June, despite far higher-than-projected inflation, is that we are now seeing clear signs of a slowdown in the economy. Easing economic pressures will contribute to curbing inflation further out.
To date, over 4,000 students had participated in such activities. 13. Today, I'm pleased to announce a new programme to encourage students who have attended MoneySENSE activities arranged by their schools to be "MoneySENSE Ambassadors". This includes the many students here today for the inter-school MoneySENSE games competition. 14. Having learnt some basic money management skills through the workshops, I hope you will use these skills and pass them on to your friends. An important step towards good money management is to plan your expenditure and savings. As "MoneySENSE Ambassadors", you will first draw up your own pocket money budget. You can do so with the MoneySENSE pocket money budget available on the MoneySENSE website. Encourage your friends to also take the first step in managing their money and draw up their own pocket money budgets. 15. Of course, it is not only about drawing up a budget. After you have drawn up your budgets, remember to monitor your expenses and spend within your means. It is a simple discipline that's really worth putting into practice from young. The MoneySENSible Awards 16. Some may think that financial planning is only for the rich. This is a big misperception. Regardless of our backgrounds and jobs, it is important to set our financial goals and map out how we intend to achieve them. The earlier we start, as individuals and as families, the easier it is to achieve our financial goals. 17.

There is also a supermarket contest to illustrate the importance of spending within your budget, plus a chef to show you how you can cook up a storm without spending a bomb. 6. There are plans to bring these activities to other parts of Singapore, and several community centres are in discussions with MoneySENSE. Important Role of Media 7. The media is still the most effective channel for financial education. In the national financial literacy survey conducted by MoneySENSE, 54% of the respondents said they were interested to learn about financial education through mass media. 8. I am glad the local newspapers have been very supportive in running MoneySENSE articles on a regular basis. The Straits Times, Lianhe Zaobao and Berita Harian have been doing so regularly for more than two years. Other publications like Today and Smart Investor have also begun to run regular MoneySENSE columns. I would like to thank all of you for partnering us in this important effort, and I would like to see this continue. 9. MoneySENSE will soon launch a TV game show requiring participants to make financial decisions such as on whether to purchase certain items, whether to take on more credit, whether to take up insurance and whether to invest in certain financial products. A preview of this new TV game show will be staged at this Roadshow on Sunday. So look out for this sneak preview. BIS Review 30/2006  1  10. These are all good initiatives.
It now has 95 members, including the US Fed since last December and this number will still grow in coming weeks. The Banque de France provides its global secretariat with 15 staff, and we created last April our Climate Change Centre chaired by Nathalie Aufauvre. We are indeed making good progress across the board. But each year that passes without sufficient emission reductions makes the issue more severe, and the solutions more radical. To grapple with this dynamic situation, it is imperative that we are able to better understand and forecast the macroeconomic impacts of climate developments. 2. An imperative for the year to come: forge models that gauge the interaction between climate and the economy One aspect of the ECB’s action plan launched on the back of the strategy review may have received too little attention: macroeconomic modelling and scenario analyses. The challenge is huge as we face a triple source of uncertainty: first, how climate change will materialise, second, what the transition could look like and, third, how both will translate to the macroeconomy. The NGFS has produced detailed macro financial scenarios and the corresponding data that provide the most comprehensive framework to date for financial risk assessment. To make such scenarios possible, the central banking community – with a strong involvement of Bank of England and Banque de France among others - has collaborated with first tier research institutes in climate science and economic modelling. This is a huge step forward.

In the long term, wouldn’t “Grexit” risk putting on record that a country can, in fact, leave the euro area, and thus that the euro is not irreversible? If Greece had to leave the euro area, that would risk casting doubt on the nature and functioning of the monetary union. That would create fragility. It would be a tragedy for Greece and, moreover, for its economy. It would be a challenge that Europe would have to rise to as quickly as possible, by substantially reinforcing its institutional framework. The stability of the euro area depends on a balance between responsibility and solidarity. In order to be stronger and more convincing, concrete initiatives are required to reinforce these two dimensions. What would you say to the Greeks to convince them not to leave? It is vital to put Greece back on a growth path, to reach a consensus in order to recreate a viable economic model for the country. Total factor productivity in Greece grew at a rate of only 1% per year between 1981 and 2014, against 2% per year in the euro area, and that happened despite the sizeable transfers Greece has benefited from. To achieve this, the Greek economy must remain within the single European market and be able to rely on its institutions. What’s more, were Greece to leave, austerity would be far worse. The country would no longer benefit from the solidarity of the euro area, which has given it the time to make the necessary adjustments.
I see at least two reasons for not going down that road. The first is that the technologies that allow these changes in scale carry progress. Technological revolutions, from the early stages of the internet to the boom in blockchain protocols to artificial intelligence, have given rise to, and can still continue to do so, new services, many daily improvements for consumers, in particular financial services including, and we are extremely attentive to that, better financial inclusion. Second, there is no reason to assume that the current framework for regulating financial  services is intangible and cannot be adjusted to respond to changes, including in scale, brought about by technological innovation to ensure that potential risks are properly managed. A simple example: the customer experience for opening a remote account in France, compared to other European countries, wasn’t sufficiently fluid. The players that we have met often mentioned as a potential impediment the French transposition of the 4th European antimoney laundering directive, which would not make it possible to fully capitalise on the advantages of technology. We have taken note of the problem and set up a working group, led by the ACPR Fintech – Innovation unit within the framework of the ACPR-AMF Fintech Forum, bringing together technology providers, financial institutions and public authorities. The aim was to co-construct proposals based on an objective assessment of regulations and technological state of the art, while ensuring the efficiency of AML/CFT frameworks.

The question that arises today is: which systems could become more efficient or offer greater possibilities as a result of technical decentralisation? In the field of regulation and supervision conducted by the ACPR, we applied the same principles. Take the case of Artificial Intelligence (AI). How do we concretely define the conditions for a controlled development of artificial intelligence and define the principles of its control? It is in this spirit that we designed our IA workshops: the ACPR FinTech experts and the Banque de France data scientists met established players to understand their perception of these technologies and assess their level of maturity. In the areas of AML-CFT, internal models and consumer protection, the lessons learned from these meetings and tests under production conditions will provide us with crucial information for building a future framework conducive to controlling the development of Artificial Intelligence. (iii) Aware of the importance of the issues and clairvoyant as to their complexity, ready to change our regulation and the exercise of our missions, we must also be bold, that is to say, innovative. To conclude this speech, I would like to stress two important elements. First, European financial sovereignty does not depend solely on the authorities of its Member States or on the regulations drawn up by the European Commission; it depends first and foremost on the vitality of the European ecosystem and on the innovation effort of all players, be they established or new.