samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Speech  Embargo 19 September 2019, 5.30 pm  Fourth Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Introduction of Raghuram Rajan, ETH Zurich  Thomas J. Jordan Chairman of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Zurich, 19 September 2019 © Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 2019  Page 1/4  Ladies and gentlemen I am very pleased to welcome you all to this year’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture. This occasion marks the 30th anniversary of Karl Brunner’s death. In the Karl Brunner Lecture Series, the Swiss National Bank pays tribute to academics whose research is of particular relevance for central banking. Today we are celebrating the outstanding contribution made by Raghuram Rajan, the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. We are honoured that Dr Rajan has accepted our invitation to deliver this lecture. Raghuram Rajan was born on 3 February 1963 in Bhopal, India. He started his career with a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi. Following the decision to leave the sphere of electromagnetic fields and waves in favour of the oscillations of the economy and financial markets, Raghu joined the doctoral programme at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he received a PhD for his thesis ʻEssays on Banking’. Four years later, at the age of just 32, he became a full professor of finance at the University of Chicago. Exceptional academic Raghu is an exceptional academic.

He has done pioneering empirical and theoretical work across a remarkably broad field of topics. His main interests, however, lie in banking, corporate finance and economic development, and especially the role played by finance in economic development. In his paper entitled ʻFinancial dependence and growth’, co-authored with Luigi Zingales, he found evidence of a positive causality between the level of development of a country’s financial sector and income growth. According to Google Scholar, this paper has been cited more than 9,000 times. This is on a par with Milton Friedman’s influential 1967 presidential address to the American Economic Association on the concept of the natural rate of unemployment. Raghu’s trademark is his willingness to challenge the accepted wisdom of the day. The bestknown example of this took place at the Jackson Hole symposium in 2005. There he warned of an upcoming meltdown in the global financial system, with substantial negative consequences for the real economy. Three years later, the global financial crisis broke out. And it was largely caused by the very factors that he had identified. For Raghu, financial markets play an important role for economic growth in the long term. However, financial markets have a tendency to deviate from fundamental values. Financial regulation has therefore been a concern of his since well before the crisis. What are his recommendations in this regard? To be effective, regulation must avoid being procyclical, that is, over-regulating in a bust and de-regulating in a boom. Rather, regulation must be comprehensive and contingent. Consider two types of such regulation.
Chairman, Your Excellencies, friends,  BIS Review 11/2007  1  Over the next few years, we are also very keen to deal with two key disparities prevailing in our country. These are: (a) regional disparity in economic development, and (b) significant income disparity between the poor and rich. Creating more opportunities within the regions outside the Western Province and encouraging village development and human resource development at all levels, hopefully the need to reduce poverty significantly, and address income inequality. These efforts therefore would need to be pursued with renewed enthusiasm, as already vowed in the Mahinda Chinthana, the President’s development plan for the nation. We are also deeply conscious that for the country to achieve its macro-economic goals, the monetary policy too should play a key role. Towards that end, the monetary policy framework adopted by the Central Bank has been made consistent with the government’s macroeconomic framework. Accordingly, the 2007 targets in the monetary programme of the Central Bank have been set, after taking into consideration the potential growth and liquidity needs of the economy to move along the projected growth path while keeping inflationary pressures in check. Your Excellency, In November 2006, the Government of your Excellency announced its medium-term macroeconomic framework within a 10-year development framework. This programme targets an 8 per cent growth for the next six years and 9-10 per cent thereafter. These are tough targets. But these are achievable. When striving towards such goals, we must remember that our development focus should always be clear.

Ajith Nivard Cabraal: Macroeconomic background and outlook for 2007 Presentation by Mr Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the Sri Lanka Development Forum – 2007, Colombo, 29-30 January 2007. *  *  *  Your Excellency President Mahinda Rajapaksa, President of Sri Lanka, Hon Chairman, Hon Ministers, Your Excellencies, Development Partners and friends, In the next few minutes, I will endeavour to give you a quick update of Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic achievements in 2006 and also share with you, some thoughts on the outlook for 2007. As we now know, the Sri Lankan economy recorded a growth of 7.8 per cent in the first three quarters of 2006 and according to current available data, it is very likely that the economic growth in 2006 would be well over 7 per cent. Unemployment recorded its lowest level of 6.3% during the year. Our international reserves increased by nearly 5 per cent. Exports, imports and FDI grew significantly. Many major infrastructure development projects commenced. A large number of village development projects were implemented. Migrant worker remittances reached the highest ever level of over US dollar 2.3 billion. These achievements by any standards, would have been considered significant. But, in the light of several major challenges faced by the country during 2006, these achievements could very well be even considered quite remarkable.
Not least, Islamic banking continues to grow  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  further with more institutions adopting an Islamic-first strategy. With the growth of the assets comes the demand for corresponding Shariah-compliant investing and treasury services. These factors point to another area where we believe to be important in further advancing Malaysia as an international Islamic financial centre. The development of a vibrant Islamic financial market, in particular the ringgit Islamic financial market. Currently, Islamic money market volume already accounts for 38% of the total turnover in the money market while total trading volume has increased steadily over the years to RM5.9 trillion in Islamic money market as at end of 2021 (2020: RM4.91 trillion). Commodity Murabahah has been the predominant instrument in the Islamic money market with a 92.7% composition, followed by Qard Acceptance (5.6%), Negotiable Instrument of Deposits (1.2%) and others3. The overall bond market (including sukuk market) continued to grow with outstanding bond and sukuk growing at 8% in 2021 to RM1.7 trillion4. Turnover of debt securities and sukuk remained robust at RM1.87 trillion as of end-2021, with average daily secondary bond trading volume of RM3.8 billion. To date, Malaysia remains the biggest global sukuk market with a share of 52% of total outstanding sukuk and 42% share of global sukuk issuances as of end-20215. These are very good achievements - a strength that we can further build upon.

This helps identify areas where there is an apparent mismatch - for example where a particular business line is assessed as “high” risk but the risk control is assessed as “weak”. Appropriate follow-up action would then be conducted. I’ve gone into quite a lot of detail on this to make the point that the dialogue between the banks and supervisor in Hong Kong already currently focuses on the full range of risks, even though only a small sub-set of these risks are currently addressed in the capital framework. So, as I said before, Hong Kong is quite well advanced in this area. As time goes on, however, we would expect to see the banks themselves doing more of this analysis and the supervisors less. Indeed, in time we would expect at least the larger banks to have a fairly well-developed process for assessing all the risks inherent in their business, the quality of the management of these risks, and ultimately how much capital they need to hold in respect of these risks. The second area I mentioned in which we can expect to see some developments is the increased used of quantitative techniques, including modelling and stress-testing. Again, this is something that is already happening, but is something to which Basel II will give added impetus. The most obvious area for this, of course, is credit risk, where we can expect to see banks making greater use of credit scoring models, and in particular models to estimate probability of default.
The CNMV (National Securities Market Commission), the Directorate General for Insurance and we at the Banco de España have competencies within our sphere of influence, although on assigning them regard is had to the type of product marketed, and not to the usual criterion of type of institution. On an ongoing basis, the Banco de España exercises surveillance over and inspects transparency and bank customer protection. As indicated in the latest Annual Claims Report, further to this oversight 6 disciplinary proceedings were initiated in 2019 against different banks, and 58 requirements and 31 written observations and recommendations were made. 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  Indeed, both the requirements and the written notifications are, per se, supervisory actions, a fact often forgotten as the focus is solely on fines. Our Institutions’ Conduct Department has been tasked with defining the supervisory policy for and the exercise of oversight in respect of conduct. However, from the prudential supervision standpoint, conduct risk is also evaluated, with everincreasing attention. Conceptually, this risk comes under non-financial or operational risk which, since Basel II was approved, is part of the minimum capital Pillar 1, and is directly reflected in the solvency ratio. Elsewhere, reputational aspects, which are very important for the banking sector, are also evaluated as part of Pillar 2. Both pillars of the capital framework repeatedly mention the concept of “risk”. A quick search of the text of the European Solvency Regulation will bear this out: the word risk appears no fewer than 1,500 times.

Market risk is the risk that the bank’s assets will vary in value in a way that was not anticipated, and this makes it difficult for the bank to get hold of capital without making a loss. For example, fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates can affect the value of the assets. In addition to these risks, there are what are known as operational risks. This can involve, for instance, a technical system failing to function, or a human error that puts the bank at great risk. Some of you may remember how the British bank Barings collapsed in 1995 as a result of speculation and unchecked risks taken by a single employee. Risk management is about protecting oneself against such undesirable and unexpected outcomes. In short, one wants to take calculated risks. According to earlier agreements within the Basel Committee, the banks have the possibility to develop models themselves to calculate the size of their risks and this is an opportunity most of the major banks have used. Over time, their risk calculation models have become increasingly sophisticated. But during the crisis it turned out that not even the most advanced models managed to capture the real risks. Sometimes it was not the model that was inadequate; there was a lack of available data for assessing the risk. In many cases there was quite simply not enough historical data, as the financial instruments were such fresh inventions. You may have heard of various types of complicated derivative, such as CDOs, CDSs and so on.
However, it is possible to limit the demand for e-krona, for instance through interest or volume limits. It is interesting to note that the fears expressed at present about the e-krona are almost an echo of the debate conducted around 100 years ago when the Riksbank was to be granted a monopoly on issuing banknotes. Even then, there were “fears of severe disruptions in the business world”. 20 It was also thought that the reform would make the Riksbank “much more powerful than before and with greater  17  For more detailed information, see the special edition about the e-krona in Economic Review No. 3 2018. 18 The money that banks have in accounts with the Riksbank can only be used for payments between banks and  not for payments in ordinary shops. 19 For example, Brunnermeier and Niepelt (2019) have shown in a theoretical model that state digital currency need not have negative consequences fro financial stability. 20 See Fahlbeck (1900). 9 [35]  powers of decision over the entire Swedish economy”. 21 It all turned out well 100 years ago, but even if we do not consider that an e-krona would be as revolutionary as some people seem to think, it is appropriate that the Riksdag should also look into this question. The inquiry into the role of central government in the payment market, which has recently started up, has been tasked with taking a stance on whether an e-krona is needed.

Durmuş Yılmaz: Reform strategies and expectations in the new normal – a public perspective Speech by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the Active Academy 8th International Finance Summit, Istanbul, 8 December 2010. *  *  *  Distinguished participants and esteemed guests, Before starting my speech, I would like to thank the directors and staff of the Active Academy for their efforts in organizing the 8th International Finance Summit. The Turkish economy, which has achieved stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and a sound financial system thanks to steadfast implementation of structural reforms since 2001, has been one of the economies that exited the crisis very rapidly. In the upcoming period, the new economic conjuncture needs to be managed wisely in order to sustain macroeconomic stability. Therefore, today I would like to devote my speech entirely to macroeconomic stability. Distinguished participants, The recovery observed in the aftermath of the crisis continues albeit being slow and gradual. However, the downside risks pertaining to the future global growth outlook persist. Vulnerabilities continue especially in developed countries that experience serious deterioration in budget balances and an excessive rise in public debts. Perceptions are growing that the accommodative fiscal policies and expansionary monetary policies adopted by these countries fall short of achieving the desired results in unemployment and growth. Meanwhile, developing countries, which have stronger financial structures, are enjoying a faster recovery process. The decoupling observed between these two groups of countries is expected to continue in the upcoming period as well.
Or we could think about the possibility of establishing “safe hubs” of granular information where data from different institutions are shared with every guarantee of retaining statistical secrecy and confidentiality. By way of example, in some Nordic countries there is a consortium of public institutions which share their data not only with their own analysts but also with the scientific community. It would also be worth strengthening the possibilities of having access to administrative registers of other institutions and to allow the matching of different databases. The value of micro datasets increases exponentially when they can be combined, including the granular information of one dataset in the observations of another. The amount of research  5  possibilities here is really huge. Therefore, we should make every effort to achieve these types of dataset combinations, through the above-mentioned “safe hubs”, through a consortium or by any other means. Another related issue is the importance of providing all the observations making up a given register. A large amount of observations is by itself important, as it allows the study of specific groups of agents with sufficient accuracy. But it is also crucial when it comes to merging different datasets. If an administrative register is reduced to some sub-set of observations, then the chances of finding the same agents in a different dataset decrease dramatically. This is of particular importance in the case of surveys containing important information to be merged with some registers. Surveys usually have a much smaller sample size.

Indeed, as part of the Eurosystem, as a participant in the Single Supervisory Mechanism and given its responsibility for the proper functioning and stability of the financial system, the Banco de España regularly collects a wealth of financial and supervisory information from credit institutions, which is key to performing all our duties. This information is also necessary for strengthening the performance of other functions of the Banco de España, such as the conduct of monetary policy, the oversight of the stability of the financial system and the compilation of statistics. We are also responsible for designing financial reporting as efficiently as possible and, in this endeavour, both the Banco de España and the European authorities have some substantial challenges ahead. I shall refer to these later. Some of the key statistics produced by the Banco de España are present in the Spanish National Statistical Plan (the PEN, as we refer to it). They include some macroeconomic statistics, such as the balance of payments and the financial accounts, which complement and have to be consistent with those compiled by INE. In this regard, I think we can be proud of the long-standing tradition of close and candid cooperation between our two institutions. Joint discussion continuously enriches our professionals, and their efforts to ensure the consistency and complementarity of the results are a guarantee of the quality of the statistical system.
Hong Kong received a good FATF score card in 2019, but that only means that we are capable of doing more, sharing more, and contributing to better outcomes globally in a continuous manner. 19. Going forward, I believe that being adaptable in our implementation efforts will require changes in the way we do things. More specifically, while the pandemic continues to challenge all of us, I think it should be a catalyst for the wider adoption of latest technology, in the form of Regulatory Technology (Regtech), as well as more efficient and effective AML/CFT measures. Those I believe are also the views of David Lewis, Executive Secretary of the FATF who also said “As AML professionals, we all need to take more risks and stop just ticking the boxes.” I think he is referring to the much needed adaptability in our implementation efforts. The guidance from the FATF is reassuring in this regard, and this leads to my second point. The AML/CFT Regtech adoption is a journey for banks and we should begin to drive more effective outcomes in better leveraging that process. 20. We have seen in the past two years an increasing trend for regulators globally to call for, and through their actions, enable more innovation and flexibility in combatting money laundering and financial crime. That I think is a very welcome development. 21.

Jaime Caruana: Announcement of Basel II Opening remarks of Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, at the press conference announcing the publication of Basel II, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 26 June 2004. *  *  *  I would like to thank President Trichet for his kind words, which I will certainly share with my colleagues. On behalf of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, I am honoured to join him in announcing the publication of the revised framework for bank capital adequacy, a document that we have officially entitled, the “International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: a Revised Framework.” I will not go into details about the document in my opening remarks, although of course I will be delighted to answer questions afterwards. What I would like to say is that the new framework represents a significant step towards achieving a more comprehensive and risk sensitive supervisory approach. It also represents an unparalleled opportunity for banks to improve their capital strategies and risk management systems. And finally, it provides supervisors with an opportunity to improve their ability to identify banking risks and to enhance the dialogue with the industry and among banking supervisors. This new approach can be expected to play a significant role in reinforcing the soundness of individual banks and thereby enhancing financial stability. Our objective is also to ensure a consistent application across jurisdictions.