samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Some of this activity may have resulted from the passage of the TCJA’s repatriation provisions; it may also be related more generally to the recent strength of the economic expansion and the high level of consumer and business confidence. It is hard to precisely quantify the extent to which these cash shifts have affected money markets, but it seems likely at this point that they have had an effect, at least for a time. Finally, it is important to be clear that there is no evidence that bank funding stress has contributed to this recent increase in LIBOR, in contrast to rises seen during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and 2011-2013 European sovereign debt and banking crisis. Another important consideration in the recent fluctuations in term rates is that there is an ongoing, longer-term adjustment in U.S. money markets related to the 2016 reform of money market mutual funds (money funds). The fragility of money funds—demonstrated in 2008 when a large money fund “broke the buck,” other money funds were hit by runs, and the Treasury stepped in to guarantee money fund liabilities—has been mitigated by this reform. It had the effect of sharply reducing the size of prime money funds, which have a broad capacity to invest across money markets, and increasing the size of government money funds, whose mandate is more restricted, as shown in Figure 15.

For additional discussion, see “Domestic Open Market Operations During 2017,” a report prepared by the Markets Group of the New York Fed for the FOMC. 13  4  the FOMC’s future policy stance are properly incorporated into the term structure of interest rates, and thereby appropriately affect financial conditions and the broader economy. To address the rise, the Federal Reserve made a technical adjustment to the IOR rate at the June FOMC meeting, raising it by 20 basis points while increasing the target range by 25 basis points. 14 The technical adjustment worked exactly as we expected. As you can see back in Figure 2, all rates paid on federal funds borrowings, as well as in other money markets, rose by about 20 basis points. This made it less likely that the effective federal funds rate would be above the top of the target range. Let’s spend a few minutes exploring what drivers might have been most significant in bringing about the rise in money market rates relative to IOR. 15 Leading into the technical adjustment, a shift in flows in the Treasury market had the effect of pushing both Treasury bill yields and repo rates higher in February and March. Figure 6 shows cumulative net Treasury bill issuance since the beginning of last year, as well as projections through the third quarter of this year as reported by a private-sector forecaster.
But realising this potential would require an inspired leadership by the industry, to rise to challenge the status quo and raise the game in delivering value to stakeholders. After 40 years, I believe the industry is at another crossroad. A new and exciting wave of growth and development for the industries lies ahead of us, but it can only happens if we are prepared once again to embrace the change as we did before, and collectively rise to overcome the barriers that threaten to hold the industry back from achieving its full potential. Reform via introduction of LIFE Framework The next phase of transformation is at our doorstep. As you are well aware, the blueprint for the next phase of change is encapsulated in the proposed LIFE Framework. The Framework lays the ground for greater operational flexibility, competition and diversity in the life insurance industry. More importantly, it will encourage innovation including expanding new delivery channels to reach new target groups, provide the right incentives to raise the professional standards of insurance intermediaries and deliver better value to policyholders. The reforms envisaged also seek to leverage on the digital age which presents immense opportunities to revolutionize the delivery of insurance products in a more effective and cost efficient ways that benefit consumers at large. With Malaysia’s household internet penetration rate of 67.3% and more than 43 million cellular phone subscribers in Malaysia, this mode of delivery certainly demands serious consideration. Let us tap this opportunity in delivering new insurance products and services.

The NCA also has a very important role in the prevention of pollution and emergency response in the event of spillages. The NCA head office’s Department for Emergency Response is located here in Horten. We at Norges Bank are very proud of the new banknote series – primarily because they are the most secure banknotes we have ever issued, but also because we are very pleased with the choice of motifs and theme. The new banknotes represent quite a significant break with Norwegian banknote tradition. For the first time since the Norwegian krone was introduced in 1875, Norwegian banknotes do not feature the portraits of well-known people. This time we have chosen a different type of motif, but a motif that has one thing in common with portraits: binding Norway together as a nation. The sea, which is the theme of the new banknote series, influences our country in many different ways. The Norwegian people live by the sea and use the sea both as a transport artery and for recreation. The sea is a source of well-being, welfare and prosperity. On the reverse side of the 500-krone banknote, the faint outline of an oil platform can be seen, symbolising an industry that has helped to raise the level of prosperity in Norway in recent decades. But the sea was also important before the oil age. Cod, shown on the new 200-krone banknote, has been one of our most important export products for centuries and still is today.
Taken together with workers’ apparent willingness to accept lower real pay levels, the non inflationary rate of unemployment, or NAIRU, looks to be at a lower level than we might have expected. The MPC already built into its August forecasts the possibility of some positive labour supply shock. It took the judgement then that, contrary to previous assumptions and the experience of previous recessions, the labour participation rate would be less affected by an ageing population. And, having seen little evidence of pay pressure, it took the view that the NAIRU had fallen to 5.5% – not far off the 5% rate that prevailed in the UK before the crisis. But even relative to last August’s judgement on labour supply, pay growth still looks weak relative to models calibrated on the pre-crisis period. At the same time, unemployment is still falling more rapidly than expected. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The MPC is left with a judgement whether those falls in unemployment presage an imminent sharp pick up in pay growth. Or whether the continued weakness in labour costs means we can afford to let falls in unemployment continue to run for some time yet. As always with economics, it is possible to make a good case on either side. We will know more when we see the extent of pay pressures in the big annual settlement rounds in the first quarter of next year.

Luis de Guindos: Key vulnerabilities for euro area financial stability Remarks by Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the meeting of the Financial Stability Contact Group, Frankfurt am Main, 2 October 2019. * * * Let me start by thanking you all for participating in this meeting of the Financial Stability Contact Group. These meetings are a key feature of the ECB’s market intelligence gathering activities. The financial stability environment has certainly remained challenging since this group last met in March. The global economic outlook has worsened since then, and political and policy uncertainty has increased in a number of areas. Taking this into account, we continue to see four key vulnerabilities for euro area financial stability: (i) first, a risk of mispricing of some financial assets; (ii) second, high public and private sector indebtedness in several countries; (iii) third, in view of banks’ subdued profitability outlook, we see a risk of hampered bank intermediation capacity; and (iv) fourth, vulnerabilities stemming from increased risk taking in the non-bank financial sector. We see the likelihood of these vulnerabilities unravelling in a disorderly manner over the next 18–24 months as remaining largely unchanged. This is because the now widely expected “lowerfor-longer” interest rate environment mitigates many of the possible triggers for corrections over the short to medium term.
3  New currencies have sometimes been introduced by executive decision and in an orderly way. The most obvious example is the euro. But when currency substitution has occurred naturally it’s almost always done so only after the incumbent currency has been debauched by hyperinflation. 4  Walport (2016). 5  Autonomous Research (2016). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Central bank digital currency: who can bank at the central bank? What, then, of the exchange of money, the particular asset for which the distributed ledger technology was originally conceived? Well that too has its own layers. Broadly speaking, at least for a given currency, there are two: commercial banks and the central bank. As we saw in Chart 1, most of what you and I consider money is held as liquid claims on commercial banks, i.e. deposits. Most transactions in the economy involve transfers of these claims. That’s obviously a straightforward matter if the two parties to the transaction use the same bank. When there are different banks involved – and that’s going to be true most of the time – there needs to be a means by which one can transfer money to the other. This is done using their deposits at the central bank – so-called “reserves”6. That’s why the central bank is sometimes called “the banker’s bank”, and why reserves are often described as “the ultimate settlement asset”.

Moreover, in line with the MTP, it is envisaged that the rising debt-to-GDP ratios will reverse their course steadily starting from 2011, and hence the risk premium would not display any significant changes throughout the forecast horizon. BIS Review 143/2009  15  Table 1: Annual Growth Forecasts 2009  2010  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  World  -1,4  -1,1  2,5  3,1  Developed Economies  -3,8  -3,4  0,6  1,3  United States  -2,6  -2,7  0,8  1,5  Euro Area  -4,8  -4,2  -0,3  0,3  Developing Countries  1,5  1,7  4,7  5,1  All OECD  -4,1  -3,7  0,7  -  United States  -2,8  -2,8  0,9  -  Euro Area  -4,8  -3,9  0,0  -  World  -2,3  -2,3  2,6  2,7  United States  -2,6  -2,5  2,4  2,6  Euro Area  -4,4  -3,9  1,0  1,1  IMF  OECD  Consensus Economics*  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, October. OECD Economic Outlook, June and OECD Economic Outlook, September. *Consensus Forecasts, September and October.
We more or less stuck to our basic activities in-terms of financial stability optimization and inflation control and economic development objective took a slightly backseat. I think now it is incumbent on us to really re-engage with the government, with all the social sector players, with all sorts of industry groups, agriculture groups, service sector groups and really map the way forward on how this country can grow. When you look at the situation it is not bad, but on the other hand there is a lot of work to be done. Take for instance the fact that the entire Northern Province contributes only 4% of the total national GDP. That is simply unacceptable. We have nine provinces in this country and you cannot have one of them only contributing 4%. That is simply unbalanced, and the opportunity is that we have in Northern Province three branches, in Trincomalee, in Jaffna and now in Kilinochchi, and there is no reason at all why we cannot spur all the banking institutions in Northern Province to come under our umbrella and really see that the economic potential of that region is achieved. It is very simple. We just have to see that the banking institutions and ourselves work on a coordinated basis to look at what resources that area of the country has,  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  whether it is manpower or land that is unutilized, and the agricultural potential.

Also the East Asian countries around it, like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong had mounted their economic miracle by opening up their market and making their exchange rates competitive and basically getting huge amounts of foreign investment. That model worked effectively and it is the only model that really is open for emerging markets to prosper. But now they are facing a problem. Their populations have stopped growing so they do not have young, creative workers coming into the workforce in-order to make their economies continue to grow at the fantastic rates of growth they achieved for several decades; 10–12% of rates for economic growth. So now the challenge is for the countries around the Indian Ocean. Particularly the Southern Indian Ocean. The whole SAARC Region including India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, even the Maldives in its own way, and then look at the Middle East, parts of the Middle East which are prospering, particularly the UAE, Oman, Qatar and similar countries and then the whole of the African Continent, which you may or may not know, has about a billion people. This is almost the size of China about ten years ago. If Africa can get going with its vast stores of minerals and other types of natural resources, then you really see a transformation in this part of the world. This part of the Indian Ocean  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  will, I think, really be the fastest growing region in the world in ten years’ time.
As a result of all of these factors, the current account reported for Switzerland is not a good measure for assessing trade flows and changes in the international investment position or a suitable metric on which to base monetary policy. The Swiss current account cannot be used either to assess the fair external value of the Swiss franc or to adequately reflect the risks in relation to price stability and economic development. Therefore, the SNB does not base its monetary policy on the current account. Page 13/13  High Swiss current account surplus: consequences for SNB monetary policy?

•  As we have discussed in our publications, such as our Monetary Policy Report, the current events will have dramatic effects on financial and economic activity. A contraction in the economy and a rise in unemployment are expected. •  Financial institutions and the banking sector are exposed to the shocks in liquidity and credit risk. At the same time, the banking sector is an important pillar channeling liquidity and credit support to firms and households. •  The CBC has been providing liquidity facilities to the markets since the Covid-19 first hit our country. •  Nevertheless, we have also stated that although this crisis will last longer than we originally expected, it is a temporary crisis. Moreover, the banking sector is in good shape and solvent to weather the storm. •  When crises hit our countries, systems like CLS acquire one of their most important roles. It is during these times that counterparty, and credit risks increase and a system that allows payments without any settlement risk is of extreme value for financial markets and the economy. Page 3 of 4  Central Bank of Chile July 2020  •  This crisis has created an important challenge to policymakers everywhere. In many countries, we hear that an extraordinary crisis should generate extraordinary responses. In Chile, we have indeed produced such extraordinary responses, both in size and shape.
97.4% of all businesses in Malaysia are SMEs, contributing 37.4% of GDP. Our engagements reveal that these significant contributors often have low levels of knowledge on sustainability. Communication is thus key. Banks and industry leaders, those seated in this room, have the responsibility to communicate and create the awareness and acceptance of your clients on the importance, risks and opportunities related to the impacts of climate change. Alignment. 2050 is the goal for Malaysia. But, it is not one that can be achieved if we each march to the beat of our own drums. Our collective effort is key if we are to achieve a just and orderly transition. Aside from alignment between institutions, even more critical is the need for alignment within institutions. Climate objectives decided at the board and management level must be cascaded to the frontlines and across branches to ensure that clients have the support needed regardless of where they are situated. In combination, this alignment will ensure that efforts by each institution are complementary and achieve the maximum impact. Proactiveness. The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states irrevocably that the window of opportunity to reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is rapidly closing. Decisions of today already have a profound impact on tomorrow's future. Financial institutions must be proactive in ensuring that your own institutions and your clients are prepared in the face of a changing climate and economy.

Aznan bin Abdul Aziz: Banking and ESG revolution – going beyond aspirations Closing remarks by Mr Aznan bin Abdul Aziz, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the AICB-ABM 2nd Malaysian Banking Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 27 June 2023. *** Y Bhg Tan Sri Azman Hashim, Chairman of the Asian Institute of Chartered Bankers; Y Bhg Dato Khairussaleh Ramli, Chairman of the Association of Banks Malaysia, Vice Chairman of AICB and Group President and CEO of Maybank Group; Esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen Assalamualaikum and Salam Sejahtera It's past 5 pm. And I have the unenviable job of keeping you from leaving after a highly productive and packed day. It is simply incomplete to adjourn without the regulator relaying its thoughts and expectations . I understand that the day started with a focus on where we, as a country, are in the climate journey. We know that 2050 is THE Year – the earliest point by which Malaysia aspires to reach Net Zero GHG emissions. Many significant policies are now either in place or are due to be finalised soon to get us to 2050. These include key frameworks and roadmaps for Malaysia to transition such as the Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT- LEDS), Nationally Determined Contributions Roadmap (NDC Roadmap) and National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). These policies will enable yourselves and your clients to better align your transition plans.
In 1986, the derivatives markets were still nascent and securitization had just begun to spread outside the mortgage markets in the United States. At that time, a task force of central bankers, the precursor to today’s Committee of the Global Financial System, which reports to the Global Economy Meeting of 31 central bank governors, published a volume titled Recent Innovations in International Banking.1 The report was notable for being among the first to describe what was then a set of new financial instruments, such as over-thecounter derivatives and the expanded use of financial options. The study noted the tremendous momentum behind the 1980s wave of financial innovation, the likelihood of those forces continuing, and the changes already occurring in the financial system, especially the shift of financial activities from traditional banking markets to securities and derivatives markets. The really noteworthy aspect of the report is the study group’s effort to identify – really, anticipate – the risks and concerns that could emerge in the transforming financial system. In a section that anticipates current policy language with the cutting-edge title “Macro-prudential policy”, the report enumerates these concerns: •  The risk that credit vigilance would decline in the financial system, and with it, overall credit quality. •  The potential that the transformed financial system could encourage and enable leverage. •  The risk of sudden loss of liquidity as markets come under pressure, especially because the banking system would no longer be capable of backstopping the nonbank financial sector and the broader private sector.

I Page 6 of 8  talked a bit on this topic last year, but for this year, I would like to offer a different perspective of why it is still a good place for Japanese firms to be in and invest. The first point we can probably all agree on is that ASEAN is a good place to be. A lot of geopolitical turmoil today probably emphasizes that it is good to be in a place like ASEAN. If you grouped all the ten economies as one economy, ASEAN would be the 4th or the 5th largest economy in the world, depending on whether you use PPP or market exchange rates. It is a region that is integrating and linking together in real terms, not just the rhetoric in terms of diplomatic cooperation. Linkages are rapidly increasing as we have seen about a three-fold expansion of the intra-ASEAN trade over the past 20 years. ASEAN also remains attractive in terms of investment since it accounted for an increased share of global foreign direct investment, about 5 percent five years ago but increased to about 14 percent in 2020. I think that all of you would probably agree that ASEAN is a good place to be. Thailand admittedly is not the largest market in ASEAN as we are about half the size of Indonesia. We are also no longer the fastest growing economy by any stretch of the imagination as Vietnam is growing much faster than we are.