samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The hope is that monetary policy and the Riksbank’s arguments may contribute to reducing the risk of an overly rapid and far-reaching build-up of debt, and thereby also reduce the risk of a more abrupt adjustment of household indebtedness further ahead. It has sometimes been claimed that these considerations have meant that the Riksbank has given less priority to the inflation target and begun to regard house prices and household borrowing as target variables. This is not the case. The purpose of taking into account household indebtedness and house prices is to safeguard the inflation target and a stable development in the real economy, also in the longer term. These considerations could and should, in my opinion, be accommodated within the scope of the flexible inflation-targeting policy the Riksbank conducts, like many other central banks. The Riksbank is far from the only central bank to make this type of consideration. Household indebtedness and house prices have increased at an even faster rate in other countries, as I mentioned earlier. However, I consider that the question of house prices and household indebtedness has been given much more attention in the monetary policy debate than it actually deserves, considering the significance this question has for monetary policy decisions. In the media the interest rate increases have sometimes been linked directly to developments in the housing market. This is an incorrect picture.

Prices thus do not appear to have been driven by fundamental factors such as rents and vacancies, but instead by investors lowering their rate of return requirement. The size of this requirement depends  BIS Review 105/2006  1  partly on long-term interest rates, but also on how much risk investors are willing to take, what risk premium they require. As long-term interest rates have not fallen - they have more probably risen during the period, this indicates that falling risk premiums have pushed up prices. While this in itself is no great surprise – risk premiums on all kinds of high risk assets around the world have fallen in recent years, and it would have been surprising if Swedish commercial property had been an exception from this trend – there is reason to question whether the current low risk premiums are reasonable. If they were to be adjusted upwards to the earlier more normal levels, this would create downward pressure on commercial property prices. The Riksbank thus has reason to continue closely following developments in this field. Nevertheless, earnings and payment capacity in the property sector are good. Unlike the early 1990s, the property companies have on the whole sufficient capital to be able to manage a reasonable fall in property prices. My assessment is therefore that the commercial property sector does not constitute a threat to the stability of the financial system at present. The housing market Let me now move on to the housing market.
There is agreement, however, that these payments have increased compared with last year's survey and that this trend is likely to continue in future. Wage and salary payments in euros are still not an issue. Employees would not accept wage and salary payments in euros. Furthermore, such a practice would result in substantial administrative complications (social security deductions and taxes in Swiss francs). The selective use of euros in place of the Swiss franc does not create any difficulty with regard to monetary policy. On the one hand, the bulk of payments in Switzerland will probably continue to be effected in Swiss francs also in future. On the other hand, under the current monetary policy strategy, a possible euro-induced decline in the demand for money will not lead to any problems either. Contrary to the previous policy of targeting the money supply, the steering of the interest rate the National Bank pursues today is not dependent on a stable demand for money. The National Bank realises, however, that, as invoicing in euros becomes more widespread, our export industry must bear higher exchange rate risks. BIS Review 73/2002  3

And they need rules that reflect public policy concerns, relating particularly in the case of financial markets to systemic stability, consumer protection and fair competition. I will come back to that. The second main driver of change in the financial services industry in particular is, as I say, the ICT revolution, which has made possible new financial instruments and investment strategies, new means of measuring, monitoring and managing risks and new - and cheaper - delivery, trading and settlement mechanisms and so on, all of which facilitate the greater competition and greater efficiency we need. These global influences are of course at work within Europe, like everywhere else. But change in Europe in particular is being driven also by two Europe-specific factors - the single European market program, which is essentially an advanced, regional, form of the broader international shift towards free trade and the freedom of capital movement; - and the introduction of the euro, which, by eliminating currency risk between the participating countries, is making a substantial further contribution to increasing the depth and liquidity of European financial markets, including the (small-E) euro markets here in London.
In any event, the evidence available in the coming months on the effective use of these capital buffers, once the losses stemming from the COVID-19 crisis materialise, will be essential to allow conclusions to be drawn on the effective use of these buffers and to assess whether any additional measures may be needed. Based on the experience obtained during this crisis, and on a medium-term horizon, the balance between structural and countercyclical capital buffers could also be analysed as a way of avoiding the difficulties I have mentioned, should they arise. Thirdly, I also wish to refer to the treatment of dividends during the crisis. As you are all well aware, one of the recommendations of the European prudential supervisors, which has also been made in many other countries, is that banks should refrain from distributing dividends and be highly prudent when paying bonuses to their staff. This measure seeks to ensure that, in this highly uncertain setting, banks are able to build up sufficient funds to absorb losses. In general, all Spanish banks that were legally able to suspend or defer dividends to be distributed out of 2019 income complied with these recommendations. This enabled them to increase in 2020 the capital buffers they had already built up before the onset of the pandemic.

Somewhat simplified, we can say that the money supply will once again become approximately proportional to the price level. A larger money supply in the future will lead, all else being equal, to a higher price level in the future. If the central bank could thus credibly commit to a permanent and lasting increase in the money supply, the expected future price level would rise. The problem here is, however, that there is no way for the central bank to make a credible commitment to a larger money supply in the future. There is nothing to prevent the central bank from reneging on such a commitment and reducing the money supply in the future in order to reduce future inflation and keep it in line with the inflation target. 16 Experience from Japan's period of "quantitative easing" also shows that the extreme expansion of approximately 70 per cent of the monetary base between March 2001 and March 2006 did not noticeably affect expectations of inflation and the future price level. 17 For example, the yen did not depreciate as it should otherwise have done. Firms and households clearly believed that the expansion of the monetary base was temporary and not permanent, which subsequently proved to be true. The monetary base fell back to normal levels when the interest rate was later raised to above zero. Other measures A number of other measures for addressing a situation with a zero interest rate have been proposed.
•  Finally, the infrastructure of monetary discipline which is in place across the financially developed world, and the peer pressure that exists to conform to such discipline, provide a very strong safeguard against any monetary financing of fiscal deficits or any associated compromising of sound monetary principles. This applies in Hong Kong as forcefully as anywhere else. BIS Review 70/2002  5

Ladies and Gentlemen, this seminar comes at a time when the economic performance of our country has significantly strengthened as partly reflected in the developments in the gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, interest rate and exchange rate. At a preliminary estimate of 5.7% in 2007, growth in real GDP has been above 5% for the fifth consecutive year. During the month of January 2008, inflation remained in single digit at 9.3%, from 8.9% and 8.2%, in December 2007 and December 2006, respectively. Commercial banks lending rates have also exhibited an investment-supportive trend while the Kwacha has remained relatively stable. Further, we have observed an improvement in the fiscal operations of the Government, which is supportive of the country’s inflation and growth objectives. The financial sector has also been very stable and registering appreciable growth in the recent years. Nevertheless, Mr. Chairman, despite these achievements, our country like so many other developing countries, still faces some challenges. Notable among these, is the urgent need to consolidate and build the gains so far attained. In particular, the need to attain sustained price and financial systems stability can hardly be over-emphasised. This is even more pronounced given the recent electricity outages experienced across the country and floods that have ravaged some parts of Zambia. Chairperson, it is also pleasing to note that, in the recent past, there has been recognition of the need to adopt economic and structural reforms in most African countries and some benefits are already evident in this regard.
the act laying down the setting up of the National Bank of Romania, was published, ranking our institution among the first modern central banks. We hold dear the memory of our founding fathers. We honour them each year, but now I wish to commemorate two of them: the Prime Minister of those times, Ion C. Brătianu, whose commitment and great efforts materialized in the cornerstone law for the establishment of Romania’s central bank as a modern institution for “monetary circulation and a solid credit system” and the the artisan of the National Bank of Romania Eugeniu Carada, advisor to the Prime Minister, a man of deeds, rather than words. Eugeniu Carada took up the strategic mission to achieve the establishment of our central bank, had a clear vision of its role and set up a sound and modern credit system to foster loans and investments. By implementing modern instruments and policies for those times, the National Bank of Romania also contributed to the expansion of financial intermediation and the dissemination of financial education, since 1880 until the present day. Even though we are living difficult times, we should remember that we share a common institutional collective memory. The National Bank of Romania has been a member of the Bank for International Settlements since its establishment, on January 20, 19301, when the Final Act of the Second Hague Conference2 was adopted.

On behalf of all my colleagues in Romania, we salute the great endeavours of all the predecessors that steered the global banking and finances in the last 90 years and overcame major challenges and financial and economic crises, to foster enhanced preparedness for future times. Starting with 1 January 2007, when Romania joined the European Union, the National Bank of Romania became part of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). Such a long and substantial period has forged the central bank into a pillar for the banking system, building trust and ensuring reliability. The National Bank of Romania stands as a promoter of the country’s economy, policies, society and collective spirit, national dignity and international openness. During 140 years of eventful history, The National Bank of Romania has contributed to Romania’s destiny and her trustworthy position on the international stage. Every year we have been celebrating together: colleagues both from the National Bank of Romania and other central banks around the world, colleagues from international financial institutions, academia, historians, university students, journalists, etc. We get together to remember those who came before us, to exchange opinions on matters of the day and imagine the future. The current situation prevents us from meeting in person and enjoying the dialogue. We are confident that better days are ahead and we will be able to celebrate the National Bank of Romania together in Bucharest. 1  https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/INTRO/185 https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Article.xsp?action=openDocument&documentId=B5F24859D28A2C45C12563CD00516449 2
Finally, I would like to welcome the members of the Forum and its observers, and thank them in advance for committing to and participating in this exciting and important project. 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  4

Investor protection or market integrity: As most of these crypto-assets are traded in unregulated platforms, usually via the internet, there are significant gaps in data collection and investor protection. Crypto-asset markets are therefore prone to (c) market manipulation, such as spoofing or flooding the market with fake orders to trick others into buying or selling. Moreover, the security or integrity of some of the trading platforms is also in doubt given the number of cyber incidents that have led to significant losses of the investors. 7. Having said all the above, I wish to conclude by making the following points: Crypto-assets are not money or currencies. So people wishing to invest or speculate (a) in crypto-assets should do so without harbouring the unrealistic expectation that they would one day become money or currencies that can be used as a means of exchange. Central banks must take extra care in making sure that the issuance of fiat (b) currencies is managed prudently in order not to diminish the purchasing power of the currencies or people’s confidence in them. Overseers of payment systems must take proactive steps to ensure that large value as well as small value retail payment systems, making use of commercial bank or central bank balances, are efficient, convenient and at low cost to the users. This is increasingly important as the public now expects and demands a faster and cheaper means of electronic payment or digital cash, as some would call it, for their day to (c) day transactions.
Since then, the SNB has had to learn to operate with floating, and to conduct an independent monetary policy. This has not always been easy, since the international environment has often been extremely instable with the result that the Swiss franc has, at times, been heavily overvalued. During the 1980s, a greater degree of monetary discipline emerged and the fight against inflation became gradually more widespread. However, the world monetary order only achieved a certain level of calm towards the end of the 1990s, when the European monetary integration project took form and monetary policies were geared towards the defence of price stability. ***** In sketching this rapid portrait of the hundred years of our history, we see how much circumstances have differed from one period to another. It is therefore fitting that we pay tribute to all of our predecessors who – often in difficult circumstances – gave of their best in order that the Swiss National Bank might fulfil its mandate. It was their prudent management of the country's business that sheltered us from the numerous monetary crises that battered so many other European states. It was they, too, whose determination made it possible for the SNB to conduct a monetary policy resolutely geared to stability. Our generation is deriving immense benefit from this heritage. Due to the courage and sacrifices of those who preceded us, we now reap the benefits of a prosperous economy and a healthy currency. Our gratitude also extends to the authorities and to the Swiss people.

Increasingly, wealthy investors the world over are looking to spread the risks and enhance the overall returns on their investment portfolios. We are seeing this search for diversification and improved returns on investment amongst sophisticated investors from the Middle East and Asia. It provides an opportunity for markets in Asia and the Middle East which can offer wealthy investors with higher expected returns at acceptable risk. The demand side of the financial equation in our two regions is equally compelling. First, there are unprecedented demand for funds to finance infrastructure projects, across the region. In Southeast Asia alone, about $ 461 billion is expected to be spent over the next 15 years to upgrade infrastructure. This is not even looking at China and India. Likewise in the Middle East - the reconstruction of Iraq and Qatar’s infrastructural plans are each expected to cost $ 100 billion. Second, besides infrastructure finance, we are seeing huge growth potential in the consumer finance sector in our two regions. It is driven by a rapidly expanding middle-class, who want better housing, cars and other big-ticket items like middle classes anywhere else in the world. For instance, India’s “consuming class” will rise from the current 30% of households to 40% by 2010. Similarly in China, the “middle class” is set to double over the next 5 years. Facilitating greater financial flows between Asia and Middle East Financial services are therefore growing rapidly in Asia and the Middle East.
It takes extra effort to engage with those with whom you may be unfamiliar. Often they speak a different language and have different starting points. Sometimes, for understandable reasons, economic matters are not especially interesting for them. The thing that makes these views worth listening to is the very thing that makes them sometimes difficult to hear. One way of listening to the public is through structured surveys of households. Central banks, including the Bank of England, make extensive and increasing use of such surveys – for example, when gauging households’ indebtedness, spending and confidence. They play an important diagnostic role when setting policy. Surveys are not, however, without problems. 46  Tetlock and Gardner (2016). 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  One of the most important is that they use pre-determined sets of questions which may be “framed” by experts’ views. If so, survey responses are likely to offer a restricted, often distorted, window on the non-expert world. Framed questions make for answers which conceal more than they reveal. One of the reasons experts have been surprised by how non-experts have behaved recently is because they have been asking closed questions or, worst of all, dismissing answers that do not fit their own view. Avoiding this risk requires you to ask questions which are as open and unpolluted as possible by experts’ priors and prejudices. This comes from listening, rather than just hearing. It comes from engaging in two-way conversation, from genuine dialogue not monologue.

In 2016, there were over 500 confirmed cases of measles, five times higher than at the turn of the century. If we turn from public health to economic and financial health, the costs of a lack of public trust and understanding are in many respects quite similar: expert advice and services may not be taken-up, worse alternatives may be sought out and contagious scare stories may be allowed to proliferate. Each of these has societal costs which may be significant. Financial exclusion (people excluded from access to core financial services and advice) remains pervasive in the UK. There are almost 2 million people in the UK without a bank account. 26  In the most deprived parts  (including parts of London, Manchester, Middlesbrough, Liverpool, Bradford, Birmingham and Glasgow), over a third of people do not have access to a bank account. 27  While not all of these problems can be  blamed on a misunderstanding and mistrust of finance, these are still depressing statistics. Many more people suffer the consequences, not of financial exclusion, but financial illiteracy. Studies have identified a range of ways in which this can adversely affect people’s financial health. Financial illiteracy is a key contributor to excessive indebtedness. in the run-up to the sub-prime crisis. 29  28  It is associated with an increased incidence of default, including  And illiteracy causes people to seek out high-cost, non-standard  sources of credit, the financial equivalent of alternative medicine.
It can help compliance and regulation, providing richer data that will make it easier for businesses to detect fraud and help target financial crime. It will improve resilience as it allows re-routing of messages which could reduce the impact of outages on users. It provides enriched data that will improve analytics, reconciliations and promote competition and innovation. It allows straight-through processing with less need for manual intervention. Realising these benefits relies on the quality of data submitted being sufficiently high and consistent. Therefore the Bank will mandate the sending of enhanced data in due course, starting with Purpose Codes and Legal Entity Identifiers (LEIs) within certain CHAPS messages from Spring 2024. We are also working closely with the industry in the development of best practice Market Guidance, unlocking the benefits arising from the implementation of ISO 20022 in specific use cases, through mapping existing industry conventions and identifying further opportunities where a standardised approach to submitting enhanced data can address specific pain points in the market. Collaboration to realise the Vision There is a collective endeavour to deliver the new RTGS service successfully. We need industry to be ready to transition safely to the new service and maximise the opportunities for innovation and transformation. As we now move into a phase of implementation it is important we turn industry voices into action to be ready for this transformational change. CHAPS Direct Participants (DPs)have a pivotal role in ensuring the success of both the transition to ISO 20022 and the wider RTGS Renewal programme.

Where innovation will flourish, changing customer demand will be supported and exceeded, and ultimately life-dreams enabled. It is up to each of us to help build the foundations that will allow this to take place. This transformation involves many new actors, alongside the traditional banks. There are growing numbers of challenger banks as well as innovative payments services, Payment Service Providers (PSPs), and increased interest from the world of FinTech. Indeed, payment businesses currently make up 17% of the UK’s c2500 FinTech companies. Global household ‘bigtech’ names such as Facebook and Amazon are also breaking into this market. These competitive pressures are pushing existing market participants to invest and think more intensively about what the future world of payments should look like. And due to the pivotal nature of payments, the public sector is actively involved too, seeking both to enhance and strengthen the existing infrastructure but also assessing whether there is a more fundamental approach to complement it. New forms of digital money could contribute to faster, cheaper, and more efficient payments and have financial inclusion as a prominent design consideration. As innovation develops further in this space, it will be important that regulation follows suit. Our Governor Andrew Bailey noted in his recent speech, that it is crucial the regulatory framework adapts to innovation in a way that fulfil the Bank’s core mission to promote the good of the people of the UK.