samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Relatively quickly, however, market pressures turned more focused, tightening more severely for countries with clear fundamental vulnerabilities: large current account deficits, a heavy reliance on portfolio inflows and high inflation rates. Markets then responded favorably as EME authorities shifted toward clearer, more consistent policies focused on inflation objectives and external sustainability, and away from policies with conflicting and sometimes competing objectives. A smooth adjustment to Fed normalization this cycle will be more likely if market participants retain this discriminating perspective. None of this is to suggest that the road ahead will necessarily be an easy one. Market participants may focus on vulnerabilities that they might have ignored prior to the taper  1  See “Spillovers from Unwinding Monetary Support in Advanced Economies,” 2014 Spillover Report, Chapter 2. See also, “On the Receiving End: External Financial Conditions and Emerging Market Growth Before, During and After the Global Financial Crisis,” World Economic Outlook, April 2013, Chapter 4. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  tantrum in 2013, placing an added premium on strong fundamentals, policy coherence and predictability. There will likely be no one right answer for EMEs in managing the trade-offs that come with the changed environment, and the adjustment could sometimes be difficult. With respect to these risks, central banks in general, and the Fed in particular, play an important role. We seek to be good global stewards. As you know, we’ve taken a number of steps to increase transparency and to improve the clarity of our communications.

To be sure, progress has not been uniform across EMEs, and more work remains in some countries to further strengthen institutional structures. Vulnerabilities remain in several important EMEs, and some have been hit by a sharp adverse turn in their terms of trade due to the recent fall in global commodity prices. Still, the fundamental improvements I’ve cited leave many EMEs better positioned than in the past to weather those times in the cycle when the external environment turns more challenging. Second, during previous Fed tightening cycles EME economic performance has generally been good. During the last three U.S. tightening cycles, EME industrial production growth has been between 7½ and 10 percent over the 12-months from the start of Fed tightening, while EME export volumes have risen 10 to 15 percent. The likely explanation for this favorable record is that Fed tightening generally occurs during periods of strong U.S. economic performance. Recent research from the IMF bears out this hypothesis, finding that higher U.S. interest rates associated with stronger U.S. growth represent a net positive for EMEs. 1 Financial performance of EMEs has been more diverse across Fed policy cycles. The strongest contrast is between the tightening cycle that began in 2004, and the one beginning a decade earlier, in 1994. EME asset prices strengthened considerably during the 2004 cycle, but weakened considerably during the earlier cycle.
The most recent labour market statistics for the United States indicate a continued favourable development, although the monthly statistics for household consumption indicated some slackening of demand. The purchasing managers index for the manufacturing industry in March indicated a small decline for the United States, while the index continued to improve for the euro area. Other indicators for the euro area such as the European Commission’s surveys show a positive development recently. Growth in Asia has been stronger than we had assumed. All in all, my opinion is that international economic activity appears slightly stronger now than we assessed in the February Inflation Report. For Sweden, the assessment in the Inflation Report was that GDP growth would be relatively high in the coming years. Statistics Sweden has since then published national accounts for the fourth quarter  BIS Review 33/2006  5  of 2005. These figures show that GDP growth was somewhat lower than expected, although the outcome for earlier periods was revised at the same time in such a way that the growth for the whole year 2005 remainedl in line with the forecast. Recently, indicators have shown a relatively positive picture of the development of economic activity, for example, the business tendency survey, the retail trade index and statistics for foreign trade. The purchasing managers index for the manufacturing industry has, as has been the case in the euro area, indicated a clear improvement in industrial activity since the middle of last year and this development has also continued recently.

4  See the box ”Uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements”, in Inflation Report 2006:1. 4  BIS Review 33/2006  In the second method, the uncertainty interval is instead calculated with the aid of the market’s pricing of interest rate options. The current prices of interest rate options reflect expectations of future interest rates. This method is therefore forward-looking and based on the fact that the redemption price for identical options can vary. This variation reflects the market’s assessment of the uncertainty in the future price of the asset on which the option is based. Since this variation can be observed, it is possible to construct an uncertainty interval around the implied forward rate curve. These uncertainty intervals are largely similar to the uncertainty intervals based on historical deviations (see Figure 5). To summarise, the strategy for monetary policy is being maintained with the new interest rate assumption. We normally try to attain the inflation target within a two-year period and we take the real economy into consideration. However, monetary policy cannot as before be described by the simple rule of thumb that was based on the assumption of a constant repo rate. Instead the forecasts that are based on the assumption that the repo rate will follow implied forward rates are studied and assessed. It is the whole path of inflation and the real economy that is important in monetary policy decisions.
In the euro area, fiscal consolidation must continue and crisis management mechanisms must be made operational. In other countries, such as the United States and Japan, future fiscal uncertainties must be eliminated. Finally, stable regulatory regimes, first and foremost in the financial sector, are also essential. For its part, monetary policy must be predicable, not in the sense that each and every move of the monetary authorities be precisely anticipated, but rather, that their objectives be clear and their actions fully understandable by economic agents. Strong, independent and responsible central banks are, more than ever, necessary to price and financial stability. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Jean-Pierre Roth: The current economic and monetary policy situation Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 17 September 2007. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  It is difficult to determine to what extent the turmoil in the US sub-prime mortgage market impacts on the real economy. It has hit Switzerland at a time when our economy is in enviably good shape. Should the situation in the financial markets not deteriorate any further, it is hard to imagine these factors abruptly slowing economic growth. With its decision to let the Libor slide back towards 2.75% in the short term, the SNB has clearly signalled to the markets an easing of the situation. In Switzerland, price stability has been maintained for the past 13 years, economic growth is significantly higher than in the 1990s and our unemployment rate is the lowest of all industrialised countries. It is our goal to preserve this favourable situation. BIS Review 102/2007  1
Or it could be that the spare capacity is exerting little downward pressure, because businesses with limited access to credit are unwilling to run the risk of reducing their cash flow by cutting prices in order to boost market share. Moreover, even though pay growth has been muted, unit wage costs have nevertheless risen quite sharply because businesses have held onto skilled labour through the recession, rather than lay it off. So the firmness in underlying prices may just be the flipside of the better-than-expected labour market outturns. Despite these uncertainties, it seems likely that the margin of spare capacity will be sufficient to pull inflation back towards the 2% target from its present elevated level, as the near-term effects of the restoration in VAT and sterling’s past depreciation work through. Our latest projections, contained in the February Inflation Report, are shown in Chart 9. The risks of inflation being above or below the target are roughly balanced by the end of the forecast horizon. It should, I hope, be clear from my remarks that, although a recovery of sorts may have commenced, there are still considerable doubts about its strength and durability and about the accompanying path of inflation. The road ahead is likely to be bumpy and there is still the risk of further adverse shocks.

At the same time it is important to set the interest rates in a way that avoids directly subsidising the bank system. In addition to the Riksbank’s measures the Swedish banks have received other forms of support during the financial crisis. They have also been able to borrow from other central banks. As part of the government’s stability package, with effect from December 2008 financial institutions can apply to have their borrowing guaranteed by the government through the Swedish National Debt Office. At present nine financial institutions have received loans amounting to just over SEK 300 billion with such guarantees. All in all, the bank lending supported by the Riksbank and by the Swedish National Debt Office amounted at most to almost SEK 800 billion in July this year (Figure 10). BIS Review 160/2009  9  Figure 10 The Riksbank’s lending and government-guaranteed borrowing SEK billion 900 800  900 Emissions guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office The Riksbank's lending  800  700  700  600  600  500  500  400  400  300  300  200  200  100  100  0 Jul-08  0 Oct-08  Jan-09  Apr-09  Jul-09  Oct-09  Sources: The Swedish National Debt Office and the Riksbank. To summarise, the measures to safeguard financial stability during the financial crisis were mainly aimed at quickly providing the banks with wide scale funding in SEK and USD.
It is also possible that under this scenario we will be able to ease our policy even earlier. As the capital outflow during this period will mainly result from external debt payments, in this scenario we estimate the total capital outflow to be at the same level as in the baseline scenario. Under this scenario we are ready to allocate about $ billion for FX transactions in order to stabilise the balance of payments that is also acceptable from the foreign exchange reserve adequacy point of view. It should be noted that the reserve level will be restored following the economy adjustment to the new conditions as we intend to conduct mainly reverse transactions. The Bank of Russia will undertake operations in the foreign exchange market based on the balance of payments forecast and the estimation of balances of banks and companies taking into account the structure, terms and nature of corporate debt. I would like to emphasise that we carry out these transactions in order to prevent situations when excessive exchange rate volatility and its considerable deviation from fundamental levels create financial stability risks and result in higher depreciation and inflation expectations. In particular, now that risks arising from the ruble exchange rate dynamics have aggravated, the Bank of Russia came up with interventions in the foreign exchange market. Of course, we will also consider the impact of operations in the foreign exchange market on the ruble liquidity and ease the negative effect of growing structural deficit on the credit institutions’ balance sheets.

The number of guarantees approved during the period amounted to 1,668 with a total value of Rls 644 million against loans to the tune of Rls1.6 billion granted by banks under the umbrella of the program, which benefited about 1,113 small and medium enterprises. This is in addition to loans provided by the Saudi Credit and Savings Bank, for financing young people and small enterprises, as well as the Centennial Fund, and Abdul Latif Jameel’s “Finance Program” that provides material support for youth’s projects and training courses. Dear audience, In conclusion, I wish to emphasize that the status of small and medium enterprises in the Kingdom still needs a lot of care and an appropriate environment to perform their required roles in the economy, especially in the field of Saudization of jobs. This important symposium may, hopefully, discuss this topic from its different aspects and provide the necessary recommendations to assist competent authorities in making appropriate decisions for this important sector. Thank you all for listening and wish you success. BIS Review 171/2010  3
Thomas Jordan: Monetary policy and the business cycle Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the 75th anniversary celebrations of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Zurich, 23 September 2013. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Monetary policy contributes to the prosperity of an economy by ensuring price stability in the medium and long term. This makes it possible to put resources to more efficient use, from an economic point of view, and also promotes investment and, with it, long-term growth. Price stability also helps to avoid undesirable distribution effects. Households with lower incomes derive particular benefit from this. Monetary policy can be used to dampen cyclical fluctuations. However, it is not suitable for short-term fine-tuning of the economy. From the point of view of the business cycle, the goal of monetary policy must rather be the reduction of larger risks and the alleviation of extreme situations. An example of one such measure is the minimum exchange rate, which the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set on 6 September 2011 to halt the Swiss franc's upward trend, thus averting a deflationary spiral and warding off the danger of a serious economic crisis. Monetary policy decisions are always subject to uncertainty. It is therefore of key importance that the SNB has a sound decision-making basis.

However, it is also in the big banks’ own interest to hold sufficient loss-absorbing capital, as a high level of resilience strengthens their competitiveness in the core business of wealth management, and boosts market confidence. Situation at domestically focused commercial banks I would now like to turn to our assessment of domestically focused commercial banks. There are clear and growing signs of a build-up of imbalances on the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. Over the past 12 months, mortgage lending volumes and real estate prices have once again grown strongly. Thus, the mortgage-to-GDP ratio, which was already high in a historical comparison, continued to increase. At the same time, residential real estate prices have reached levels that, in some cases, exceed those that can be justified by fundamental factors, such as demographics or per capita income. Taking the national average, this is the case for prices of owner-occupied apartments. In some regions such as Lake Geneva, Lake Zurich and Lake Zug, this is the case, on average, for all segments of the residential property market. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Under the baseline scenario, the momentum in the mortgage and real estate markets continues. It is therefore to be expected that imbalances will continue to build up, and that, consequently, the risk of an abrupt correction of these imbalances will increase over the medium term. For domestically focused commercial banks, average capitalisation relative to regulatory requirements is at a historically high level.
That includes ensuring that the common monetary policy is properly transmitted to all sectors of the economy and to all countries, and to prevent the financial fragmentation of the area. We also stand ready to adapt all our instruments should it be necessary. Naturally, we must also remain vigilant regarding the risks to financial stability. Evidently, the banking sector is facing this crisis from a healthier position than in the previous recession, which highlights the importance of the far-reaching changes made in this sector over the past decade. The ECB has also taken resolute action here. Among other measures, it has allowed banks to use the capital buffers available, which were created precisely for situations such as the present one. But, undoubtedly, the crisis will significantly impact the quality of banks’ credit portfolios, on a scale that will depend on its ultimate severity and which will be uneven across banks. The outcome will depend on banks’ starting position, on their business model and on the distribution of their exposures to the sectors and regions most affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we supervisors must continue to closely monitor the risks to financial stability and we must be ready to provide a forceful, panEuropean response should such risks materialise. In short, European and national economic authorities must share the objective of preventing the current crisis from being accompanied by an across-the-board tightening of financing conditions or from seriously harming the stability of the financial system.

According to the draft agreement, the legal spending commitments attached to the projects included in Next Generation EU shall be made, at the latest, by 31 December 2023, and the related payments will have to be made effective, at the latest, by end-2026. More specifically, 70% of the transfers should be committed during the 2021-2022 two-year period, with a country-based distribution factor that depends on the unemployment rate in 2015-2019, population and the country’s per capita income. The remaining 30% must be committed before end-2023, and the distribution factor will be adapted to incorporate more directly the heterogeneous impact of the health crisis. Thus, the unemployment rate will be replaced by a variable that will weight, in equal portions, the decline in GDP in 2020 and the cumulative decline in GDP in 2020-2021. In sum, the fund will enable, at least in part, a balance to be struck between the potential and real financial divergences among the European partners. This is because it will benefit from the positive externalities arising from joint action and it will serve to engineer a coordinated exit from the crisis, based on common budgetary instruments. The financing of the fund through Community debt will benefit from the favourable low-interest-rate environment and will prevent this new debt being assumed by Member States individually, under conditions which, in some cases, would be foreseeably more unfavourable than those 4  which are expected to be applied to this pooled instrument.
This has permitted the creation of today’s globalized financial industry and has made possible an impressive growth in value. The role of central bank oversight Now, let me turn to the role of central bank oversight: Every transaction - be it a commodity or a service - eventually leads to a transfer of money. From trade to settlement at least one system of the financial market infrastructure is usually involved. Given this, it is not surprising that the regulators are keeping a keen eye on market developments. Central banks, with their core mandate of monetary policy, have an especially close relationship with the payment systems. To the overseers of payment systems the main objective is safety. The definition and standards of safety have evolved with the years. For a long time the main interest of central banks in payment systems came from computer experts. Payment systems used to be viewed merely as ‘computers’ that cleared and settled payment obligations. In the late 1980s the focus started to shift towards the financial risks, i.e. credit and liquidity risk inherent in payment systems. Slowly it became common knowledge that payment systems could be a source of systemic risk by providing a channel through which the failure of one participant to meet its payment obligations could be passed on to other participants. In their own best interest and under the influence of the overseers operators started to protect their systems against financial risks - in most cases by building Real-Time Gross Settlement systems (RTGS).

Neither can we rule out an intensification of the recent global trends and a stronger than expected impulse from abroad, by either a steeper recovery of world activity and/or better commodity prices. Some of this seems to have permeated financial markets, where the prices of riskier assets have risen. Although it is still premature to validate such optimism, it is clear that the markets are in a better mood than last year, including local markets, which have even been outperforming many of their peers. On the domestic front, after several years of subdued growth, we cannot rule out that a more persistent phenomenon may be affecting the economy’s ability to grow, in which case spending plans of both public and private agents would need some revision. One area calling for special attention is the labor market. While acknowledging that it has gradually adjusted without significantly increasing unemployment in the past several years, it is possible that, after years of low growth companies wish to make more drastic changes in their payrolls, particularly if the expected growth recovery towards the end of the year stalls. In contrast, in a context where no macroeconomic imbalances are hindering growth, a scenario where an improved external outlook consolidates, plus the end of a cycle of mining investment adjustments and a rebound in sentiment, could lead to a more dynamic recovery than expected. All considered, the Board believes that the risk balance for both inflation and activity is unbiased. Summing up, inflation has evolved in line with December forecasts.