samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This outturn reflected continued improvement in hydro-geological conditions and uninterrupted mining operations in the country at both open pit and deep underground mines. On a year to date basis, copper output at 625,844.1 mt was 20.9% higher than the quantity produced in the corresponding period of 2009. Cobalt output also increased by 16.1% to 2,349.41 mt during the third quarter of 2010 from 2,023.84 mt recorded in the previous quarter. This level of output reflected a 16.6% rise compared to 2,015 mt produced in the third quarter of 2009. The improvement in output mainly reflects continued benefits arising from the resumption of production at Konkola Copper Mines and Chambishi Metals Plc coupled with improved hydro-geological conditions. Further, cobalt output on a year-to-date basis at 6,362.2 mt was 59.7% higher than the 3,982.9 mt of cobalt produced in the corresponding period of 2009. Manufacturing Cement output 7 by the monitored company increased by 26.1% to 234,240.7 mt in the third quarter of 2010 from 185,702.0 mt during the previous quarter. Nonetheless, on a year-todate basis, output of cement at 577,130 mt was 4.0% lower than the 601,432.5 mt produced in the same period of 2009. 7  Does not include production by Zambezi Portland Cement as data was not available at finalisation of the report.

Today, many of the ASEAN-5 countries have fairly deep and liquid local bond markets. Central banks, whose operation is contingent on a deep and liquid bond and foreign exchange markets, have been part of the development process for the government bond market. Over the years, our financial markets have become more efficient, more sophisticated and more balanced. ASEAN-5 have moved from a predominantly bank-based or credit market to a growing capital market, both equity and bond. We have also strived to better manage the impact from volatile capital flows as we seek to balance between foreign inflows and capital outflow. Here bond markets have been instrumental to help absorb the impact from the volatilities and sudden reversal of these flows. These developments have facilitated central banks in their conduct of monetary policy, manage market expectations, and guide the path of monetary policy. Today, the ABMI is taking this development further from a domestic orientation to a regional level. This is timely in view of the increasing need for Asians to find new sources for growth and new markets for their exports, and in recognition of the need for “Asian savings to finance Asian investment”. Initiatives such as the Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility (CGIF) is a case in point that aims to foster cross border fund mobilization using the tools of a regional credit guarantee vehicle.
The background here is that the policy is currently associated so strongly with a single person, Alan Greenspan, and there is concern about what will happen after him. To me, proposals of this kind about a more pragmatic policy seem rather naive. Policy principles that are less clear-cut, combined with a less transparent basis for decisions, by no means guarantee a BIS Review 98/2000  6  successful policy in the longer run. Just the reverse, I would say in the light of many years of decision-making in economic policy. One of the most important things to do in work of this type is try to build up distinct processes whereby a foundation for decisions based on sound economic analysis is produced systematically and then subjected to as broad a scrutiny as possible. One will then at least have provided conditions for consistent and wise decisions. That in turn is fundamental for all credibility in monetary policy, too. I believe, moreover, that decisions should be made in ways that contribute to insight and afford good opportunities of evaluating them and exacting accountability. These are requirements I consider people in Sweden should be entitled to make of an institution which has been given such a strong and independent status as the Riksbank. The current monetary policy situation Let me conclude by briefly presenting my view of current economic developments and their implications for monetary policy. For a couple of years now the Riksbank has had reason to count on rising economic activity.

One example is the interest rate fluctuations, which have shown up in the own homes item in the CPI. During 1996-97 in particular, the CPI was relatively far below not just the targeted rate but also the lower tolerance limit. To a fairly large extent, this was because the Riksbank lowered the interest rate markedly with a view to ensuring that the target would be met a little later on. In the period 1993-98 the Riksbank tried to explain how effects of this kind would be handled. But not everyone considered the policy was sufficiently clear. The Riksdag (Sweden’s parliament), for  BIS Review 98/2000  2  example, assessed the Riksbank’s performance solely in terms of the CPI outcome even though there had been long periods when monetary policy had focused on other indicators that exclude transitory effects. In the best of all possible worlds one would prefer to use an indicator of inflation that excludes all those effects one wants to disregard. Unfortunately, there is no such indicator that suits every situation. For example, a tax increase may, under certain circumstances, need to be excluded as a transitory effect. In other cases, however, tax increases should be taken into account when formulating policy because they are a part of the inflation process. Against this background, in 1999 the Riksbank declared that in connection with every monetary policy decision, any grounds that existed for modifying the policy’s target variable would be clarified.
If wage formation places a lot of focus on the current level of CPI inflation, I see a risk that this could create instability in the wage formation system. A situation similar to the one in the 1970s and 80s could then ultimately occur, whereby wage developments varied substantially from year to year depending on the current inflation rate, which also varied extensively. It would therefore be better if wage formation were based on a less volatile inflation measure than CPI inflation.13 A new monetary policy target variable could hopefully take on that role. A band surrounding the target When the General Council of the Riksbank decided to introduce an inflation target of 2 per cent in January 1993, it also decided that there should be a tolerance band surrounding this target of 1 percentage point both above and below.14 The aim was to clarify that the Riksbank does not have the ability to control inflation exactly in the short term, but that it also aims to limit deviations from the target – that it does not intend to “tolerate” deviations greater than 1 percentage point. The size of the interval was determined by what intuitively appeared to be reasonable. It was not possible to rely on any past experience as the monetary policy regime was entirely new and inflation had varied considerably during the old regime which had a fixed exchange rate. The Riksbank expected that inflation would now vary less, but was unsure as to how much.

The fact that the effects of monetary policy are surrounded by major uncertainty and cannot be calculated with good precision is something we probably need to remind people of more or less constantly, and in that case an interval can be useful. The most obvious approach in this case would perhaps be to reintroduce a tolerance band around the inflation target. If this route is chosen, it is important of course that it is given a practical significance and fulfils some kind of function, in contrast to the interval removed in 2010. One possibility could be that the Riksbank undertakes to explain in a special report why inflation has ended up outside the interval whenever this occurs – in roughly the same way as the Bank of England writes an open letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. On the one hand, this could lead to deviations outside the band being seen as slightly dramatic, but on the other hand it could also make deviations within the interval less dramatic. I believe the latter would be an advantage seen against the background of what I have just said about monetary policy not being able to fine-tune inflation. Naturally it is also important that the breadth of any band matches the variations in inflation in a meaningful way. It could be questioned whether this was the case for the previous tolerance  17  One possibility could be that long-term inflation expectations would have been anchored better if there had been an interval.
In recent years, both the percentage of people at work and the hours worked per person have fallen and thus provided a negative contribution to the change in the total number of hours worked in the economy. The fact that mean working time has fallen is partly due to a decline in overtime and normal working hours. The reason behind this development is not entirely clear. Cyclical effects as well as the effects of taxes and benefits are possible explanations. Seen in a longer-term perspective ahead, it is likely that households will tend to want to reduce the mean working time per person so as to use some of their increased prosperity in the form of more leisure time. So what conclusions can we draw regarding developments in the total number of hours worked in the economy on the basis of this review of the various components? Unfortunately, the prospects are not so bright if no measures are taken to improve the situation. In a long-term perspective, the demographic development is very unfavourable because the percentage of the population of working age is decreasing. The problems will be exacerbated if the rise in early retirement and long-term sick  2  The Swedish National Social Insurance Board, “Vem önskar lämna arbetslivet med förtidspension?”(Who wants to leave work on a sick pension? )’, RVF Analyserar 2004:7, and Statistics Sweden, Välfärd (Welfare), No. 1 2003.

Recently, the focus has moved partly away from pure studies of the effects of the income tax system to the combined effects on the labour supply of taxes and various benefit and social insurance systems. The focus has often been on people that work to a smaller extent, that are on sick leave or that are outside the labour force. We know from economic research that different types of compensation and benefit affect the individual’s reservation wage, that is to say, the wage level that primarily influences the individual’s decision to participate in the work force. The reservation wage varies from person to person and if the wage level offered on the market is lower than the reservation wage, the person chooses not to work. One can say that the individual values his or her time more highly than the market does. The relationship between the wages for work offered on the market and the individual reservation wage is thus a decisive factor in the decision on whether or not to work. It is easy to understand that the reservation wage will be affected by taxes, compensation levels in the unemployment and social insurance systems, rules for early retirement, etc.
The annual increase in private residential property prices slowed significantly from 18% in 2010 to 5.9% in 2011, and further to 2.8% in 2012. In sequential quarter-on-quarter terms, price increases have dipped below 2%. The motor vehicle market is another example of macroprudential policy in action, this time complementing monetary policy in addressing concerns regarding consumer price stability. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Singapore has perhaps the most stringent restrictions on car ownership in the world. Anyone who wishes to register a new vehicle in Singapore must first bid for a Certificate of Entitlement (or COE), which represents a right to vehicle ownership and use of our limited road space for 10 years. The number of COEs is tightly controlled, so as to minimise the number of cars on the road. As the supply of COEs dwindled and demand for cars remained firm on the back of strong income growth and low interest rates, COE prices rose rapidly in the last three years. At their peak early this year, COE prices averaged around $ nearly five times the level in January 2010. This in turn drove up the overall inflation rate, and started having spillover effects on the rest of the economy and shaping price expectations more generally. There was also a growing risk that buyers were over-extending themselves by purchasing more expensive cars, given the low interest rate environment. In February this year, MAS announced measures to restrict the financing of car purchases for private use.

Within this overall tightening stance, MAS has allowed a temporary increase in core inflation to accommodate some of the changes in relative prices. This is to signal resource scarcity and stimulate behavioural shifts. Policy should not be so tight as to hinder the ability of firms to restructure. The tight monetary policy stance since April 2010 has been effective in containing inflationary pressures and keeping the economy on an even keel. It has had three important effects. First, the tighter monetary policy stance has successfully restrained imported inflation despite significant price pressures in the external environment during this period. •  In foreign currency terms, wholesale price inflation among Singapore’s major trading partners averaged around 5% per annum from 2010 to 2012. •  In comparison, overall imported inflation in Singapore dollar terms has been fairly benign, averaging slightly less than 2% per annum in this period. Specific examples illustrate well the efficacy of the exchange rate in dampening imported inflation. •  Global oil prices have risen by an average of 16% per year in 2010–2012. However, local petrol pump prices have only increased by 8%. •  Global food prices, as measured by the IMF Food and Beverage Price Index, rose by 9% per annum during this period, but domestic food prices increased by just 2%. Second, the stronger Singapore Dollar has dampened inflation indirectly by moderating the demand for our exports. In turn, this has eased the demand pressure on domestic resources such as labour and industrial space.
Yet we have also seen a strong and, thus far, persistent contraction in business investment, which may weigh on future productivity growth as such investment tends to raise the technology content of capital. A prolonged period of below-trend investment could also lead to an excess of savings over investment, and therefore a fall in the natural interest rate. Developments in labour supply have also been weak. One positive factor has been the increase in the labour participation rate in the euro area by around 1 pp during the crisis, whereas in the U.S. participation has fallen by more than 3 pp. However, this has to be set against an increase in euro area long-term unemployment from 3% to 6%, which creates a risk of workers’ skills being eroded and skill mismatches emerging. This is particularly  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  relevant because unemployment is concentrated among those with lower skills: around 20% of low skilled workers are unemployed, compared with only about 7% of high skilled workers. Total factor productivity – which principally captures long-term technological progress – has fallen only marginally during the crisis, most likely reflecting the underutilised capacity in the inputs to production. However, this is no cause for comfort as TFP was on a declining trend in the euro area well before the crisis, and has recovered less quickly than in the United States.1 These developments create two interrelated challenges for policymakers. The first is how to prevent the fall in observed growth from feeding back into potential growth.

4  BIS Review 6/2004  from a presentation by Professor Lars Svensson at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis:9 “A recent innovation of the Bank of Norway […] is to plot the inflation forecast and the output-gap forecast in the same graph. This clearly serves to emphasize that the bank is concerned with the stability of the real economy as well as with inflation, emphasizing the flexibility in its inflation targeting.”  Transparency and communication Confidence in monetary policy makes it easier to achieve the inflation target and increases the possibility of stabilising output and employment. Transparency can contribute to strengthening confidence. Transparency makes monetary policy more predictable. In an environment where market participants understand the central bank’s response pattern, the reaction of market rates to new information about economic developments has a stabilising effect. Norges Bank wants to be open about its monetary policy work. An account of the methods we use for our inflation projections, analyses of the functioning of the economy and our professional judgment is provided in our Annual Report, Inflation Report, strategy documents, speeches and other publications. We also try to have a systematic procedure for interest rate decisions where we operate with a preannounced calendar for the monetary policy meetings. The interest rate decisions, together with a thorough explanation of the background for the decision, are published after each meeting.
Branch closure is free as of last month and bank opening and closing time has been free for almost a year now. We are working on the product side, both credit and funding, to allow banks to be more free to offer customers better services. For good governance, no matter what you do and what you write, unless you make people who contradict the rules pay a price, no rules will work. We have therefore in the last couple of years prosecuted about 90 people for 49,000 million baht involving really 1.7 trillion baht of assets. We have recently ruled that directors of banks must devote their attention to the banks and may not be directors of more than three other companies. Some directors have already conformed even though it would not be legally sanctionable until we explicitly inform them individually, which we have not done. We are beginning the process of follow up to fully enforce these rules soon. We have also indicated that we would like to see banks, which are now large complicated places to run, have their directors devote their time to particular functions of the bank. We are also going to begin checking on this, but for sure with Siam Commercial Bank which I visited last week in order to discuss with them personally on their risk control procedures now have a Compensation Committee, and that is a good development different from the time when I was the director of that bank on the behalf of the Ministry of Finance.

Fiscal revenues increased 9.0% in annual terms, while budget expenditures were 7.5% lower than the previous year. Our monetary policy easing has also taken into account this feature of fiscal policy that the Bank of Albania has urged and supported. However, the Bank of Albania would like to bring to attention the need for a more uniform distribution of expenditures and budget deficit over the year, to enhance their effectiveness and avoid the fluctuations that their excessive concentration may cause to the country’s economic and financial indicators. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The improved foreign demand and positive dynamic of some sectors of the economy were reflected in an increase in annual exports by 10.3% in April. The detailed analysis of trade data reveals encouraging signals about re-exporting and agricultural activities. Trade deficit, however, expanded 1.8% in April, due to the simultaneous increase of imports by 6.0%. In particular, the energy situation continues to burden the trade balance of the country due to high levels of energy imports. Structural improvements to the economy and a more favourable external environment would pave the way for a faster growth of Albanian exports. The Bank of Albania considers this channel as the most appropriate tool to support the country’s sustainable growth in the medium and long term. Projections for low annual inflation rates, against the backdrop of below-potential economic growth, have dictated the pursuit of an easing monetary policy by the Bank of Albania.
This may require you to take the higher ground, to set aside the temptation to promote such risky investment or insurance products that can earn you high commissions. While this may dampen your earnings prospects in the short term, you stand to gain the trust, confidence and loyalty of your clients over the long term. I have faith that all of you – who have taken the time to participate in this conference – will rise to this challenge and contribute to the building of a financial intermediation industry that is both profitable and ethical. I began with Shakespeare, now let me end with Confucius, the ancient Chinese philosopher. He once said: “I used to take on trust a man’s deeds, after having listened to his words. Now, having listened to a man’s words, I go on to observe his deeds”. To put this in context, it is not enough for financial institutions and practitioners to publish client charters that claim the customer is king and that their interests will always be prioritised. Given the pace and pervasiveness of social media platforms, if your actions do not match your words, you will soon be called out very publicly by your own dissatisfied customers. On the other hand, if you successfully build a reputation of high professionalism and integrity, this will ensure the longevity and growth of your business and consumer base. 1  The FEN is an inter-agency platform comprising of institutions and agencies committed to improving the financial literacy of Malaysians.

8 However, much of the research indicates that globalisation has had relatively little significance for the reduction  in inflation in advanced economies. What has been more important are changes in monetary policy strategies, changes in wage formation systems (with, for example, a reduced degree of indexation) and, as a result, stabilisation of inflation expectations; see, for example, Attinasi and Balatti (2021). However, some studies suggest greater effects; see, for example, Auer and Fischer (2010). 9 [16]  Diagram 6. Global real interest rates have fallen Per cent  Note. Real interest rates refer to 10-year zero coupon rates for real (index-linked) bonds for Sweden and the United States and 10-year benchmark rates for real (index-linked) bonds for Germany and the United Kingdom. Sources: Bank of England, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve and the Riksbank. Driving forces behind this development that are often highlighted include demographic factors. A large global population of working age and increased prosperity have contributed to high global savings.9 These are conditions that monetary policy cannot influence, but must adapt to. As the real interest rate situation has fallen, central banks’ policy rates have subsequently had to be cut to increasingly lower levels for each economic cycle in order to have sufficient effect, especially when fiscal policy has at the same time been restrictive and sometimes tight.