samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Faster, cheaper, more transparent, and more inclusive cross-border payment services would have widespread benefits for citizens across the globe both directly and by supporting economic growth, international trade and global development. International work to enhance cross-border payments  The challenge of cross-border payments has been on the agenda for a long time. But bringing about change in this multi-dimensional area is not easy. It requires strong international collaboration and commitment. It was, therefore, very welcome that enhancing cross-border payments was set as a priority for the Saudi Arabian Presidency of the G20 this year. This important G20 initiative has been structured around a three-stage process at the international level:  Stage 1 was an assessment undertaken by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) working with other standard setting bodies, including the Committee for Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI), to identify the challenges and frictions in cross-border payments. The work, which was published in April this year3, identified seven underlying frictions that together contribute to challenges around cost, speed, access and transparency of cross-border payments. While a number of these frictions are related to technology (such as legacy platforms, and fragmented and truncated data formats), it is not simply a technology issue. It is a multi-faceted challenge also including issues such as divergent compliance checks, differing operating hours of payment systems and the liquidity costs associated with funding payments. Stage 2 was the development of the building blocks needed to remove these frictions.

I’m here today to speak about how some of those changes are showing up in the economic data as it relates to the recovery. But it’s also important to remember that behind the numbers are families, businesses, and communities that have suffered and continue to face tremendous challenges of all kinds. In my remarks this afternoon I’ll share more about how what we are seeing in the incoming data relates to the economic picture nationally and to this region. I’ll also highlight some of the unique inflation dynamics we are seeing. Finally, I’ll explain what that means for monetary policy and the path forward. Before I continue, I need to give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. Dual Mandate I know there are a lot of economics students in today’s audience. I won’t quiz you about the Federal Reserve, but one aspect of our work that you may be familiar with is the Fed’s “dual mandate.” These are the two goals set by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Given these goals, our focus is studying and understanding the wide range of developments that affect employment, unemployment, and inflation. The Economic Outlook So, what are these developments telling us about the current economic outlook? I’ll start by saying that the economy continues to grow at a strong rate.
This further cut to the negative deposit facility rate increases the incentive for banks not to hold immobilised surplus liquid balances in their accounts with the Eurosystem. In the non-conventional arena, the ECB has set in train a new long-term refinancing operation explicitly geared to make lending to the private sector more buoyant. These operations, which will be launched from September this year to June 2016, may have a term of up to 4 years, at a very attractive cost for banks: 10 basis points above the main refinancing operations rate, which is equivalent at present to only 0.15%. Given that the aim of new long-term injections is to stimulate bank loans to the non-financial private sector, their availability has been linked to both the stock and the flows of lending extended by banks to households and firms, although loans for house purchase have been excluded from these calculations. The non-conventional measures agreed in September also include two new asset purchase programmes, the details of which will be addressed in the next ECB Governing Council meetings. The Eurosystem may acquire financial instruments derived from securitisations that meet various requirements. They must be simple, transparent and based on loans to households and firms in the euro area. The programme is expected to be able to contribute to reinvigorating the securitisations market, a major market that has been greatly affected by the crisis.

The adjustment in public finances undertaken by the Spanish economy is three-pronged: the gradual reduction in the budget deficit in line with the targets set, the strengthening of the fiscal governance framework and the reform of the pensions system. In light of the budgetary exercise under way, compliance with the fiscal commitments acquired at the European and national level should be the cornerstone of our budgetary policy. Fulfilment of these objectives will allow us to build on the gains in credibility already attained and to turn around the upward trend in the public debt/GDP ratio. Both goals are prerequisites for a durable economic recovery. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  One of the main changes to the institutional framework of Spanish fiscal policy has been the creation and start-up of the Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal (Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility – IAFR). The IAFR will be playing a most prominent role throughout the budgetary cycle, monitoring compliance with the principle of budgetary stability in the general government sector, in accordance with the provisions of Article 135 of our Constitution and with European regulations. In this way Spain is moving to enhance its economic governance, joining those EU countries – practically all of them – that have this type of agency.
https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2020/harnessing-the-power-of-finance-for-a-sustainable-future  8/13  14/10/2020  “Harnessing the Power of Finance for a Sustainable Future”- Keynote Speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, MAS, at the Finan…  A study by UBS estimates that close to 40% of family oﬀices plan to allocate most of their portfolios sustainably in five years’ time. [8]  This trend will be bolstered with the transfer of wealth to the millennial generation. An estimated $ trillion is expected to change hands to the next generation by 2030. [9]  Several studies suggest that millennials desire to invest in companies with good ESG track records. [10] According to a survey by Morgan Stanley, 90% of millennial high net worth investors want to tailor their investments to their personal values. [11] As a leading wealth management hub in Asia, Singapore can play a strong role in wealth planning solutions that support sustainable development in Asia. MAS launched last year a Green Investments Programme under which we will place $ billion of our funds with asset managers with a strong green focus. The aim is to grow the pool of asset managers that are committed to deepen green finance activities and capabilities in Singapore. We have short-listed several asset managers with a view to appointing the successful applicants early next year. Singapore has also begun anchoring providers of verification, review and rating services.

***  [1] Oxford Smith School Briefing Paper, October 2018, Carbon Lock-in Curves and Southeast Asia https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2020/harnessing-the-power-of-finance-for-a-sustainable-future  11/13  14/10/2020  “Harnessing the Power of Finance for a Sustainable Future”- Keynote Speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, MAS, at the Finan…  [2] New Climate Economy 2018 Report [3] Oxford Smith School Working Paper, May 2020, Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or  retard progress on climate change? [4] ‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets, Dietz, Bowen, Dixon and Gradwell (2016). [5] Perspectives for the Energy Transition, IEA and IRENA (2017). [6] ASEAN State of Market Report 2019 – Climate Bonds Initiative [7] Boston Consulting Group Global Wealth Report 2020 [8] UBS Global Family Oﬀice Report 2020 [9] Wealth-X, June 2019, A Generational Shi  : Family Wealth Transfer Report 2019  [10] Royal Bank of Canada Wealth Management and The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2019, Motivated  by more than money: Younger high-net-worth investors in Asia increasingly prioritise ethical investing; Ernst and Young, Sustainable Investing: The Millennial Investor [11] Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing, 2019, Sustainable Signals: Individual Investor  Interest Driven by Impact, Conviction and Choice [12] Financial Times, November 2019, Artificial intelligence promises to enhance sustainable investing  https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2020/harnessing-the-power-of-finance-for-a-sustainable-future  12/13
BIS Review 61/2010  9  Figure 5 Inflation indicators (annual change, percent)  12  12  9  9  6  6  3  3  0  0  -3  06  07 CPI  08  CPIX  09  CPIX1  10  -3  CPI w/o foodstuffs and energy  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Bureau (INE). Figure 6 World growth (annualized quarterly change, percent)  Commodities prices (indices Jan/2/2006=100) 350  350  300  300  250  250  0  200  200  -5  -5  150  150  -10  -10  100  100  -15  -15  50  50  0  0  10  10  5  5  0  06  07  08  09  U.S.A. Eurozone Trading partners Japan  06  07  08  09  10  Copper WTI oil Grains and cereals (*)  (*) S&P GSCI index for grains and cereals. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on the statistics institutes of each country, Bloomberg, Consensus Forecasts, and International Monetary Fund.

Conceptually, this can be understood as a supply shock, as it destroys part of the country’s productive capacity and cuts down the level of potential output. All other things being equal, this fact causes output gaps to close and inflationary pressures to increase. These pressures must be contained to prevent inflation from surpassing the 3 percent target over a two-year horizon. The virtue of our monetary policy regime is that it is based on achieving the objective over a medium-term horizon, which gives room for adjusting the monetary stimulus while maintaining sustainable economic growth during the reconstruction. Properly conducting this process is the challenge we face and that provides the framework for the analysis contained in this Monetary Policy Report. In what follows, I will describe the latest economic and financial events, our preliminary assessment of the effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the prospects and risks facing our economy, and the way in which annual inflation will converge to the 3 percent target over the two-year horizon. Macroeconomic scenario As I have said before, Chile’s macroeconomic scenario has suffered major changes since December’s Monetary Policy Report. Among a large number of developments, two elements stand out. There is no doubt that the most significant is the earthquake and tsunami of last February and both their immediate and medium-term implications for growth and inflation.
And this is why it is so important that the “quick fix” has brought European prudential regulations on this kind of investment much closer to the regulations already in place in the United States and Switzerland. Investments of this kind will enable institutions to face up to any major potential competitors – not necessarily financial institutions – that might venture into the credit market with more guarantees of success. These firms – the big techs – possess an enormous amount of customer data, and they make highly effective use of those data for their own needs. Recent experience shows that these firms have caused disruption in the sectors they have entered, taking over the most profitable business segments and driving out existing firms. Naturally, the solution is not to curb technological progress that may benefit society in many ways, but to ensure that existing banks use these technologies to process the information they hold. In any event, the big techs will always have an information advantage, because their relations with their customers go beyond the financial sphere. This allows them, as large-scale purveyors of financial and non-financial products and services, to take advantage of economies of scope and network economies. Accordingly, and to prevent selection bias that can lead, for example, to the exclusion of certain social profiles, in the medium term comprehensive personal data regulations are needed, similar to those already in place in many countries’ central credit registers.

In circumstances of permanent changes in the infrastructure of financial markets, the supervisory role of the central bank regarding the payment system contributes to the maintenance of financial stability. Additionally, the systems for large payments contribute to the coordination of the direct participants in the national payment system, such as the Treasury of the Ministry of Finance, banks and clearing institutions, ensuring finality of all payments in the national economy. In this way, the National Bank maintains the vitality of the payment systems as one of the most important components of the financial and economic infrastructure. In terms of achieving the development and catalyst role, allow me to affirm the strategic approach of the National Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Banking Association in the development of the national payment system of the Republic of Macedonia through the adoption and implementation of the Strategy for the development of the payment system of the Republic of Macedonia for the period 2013–2017. Our shared vision for the development of the payment systems of the Republic of Macedonia until 2017 is the modernization and improvement of the operations of payment systems through the application of high-tech achievements and gradual harmonization with the standards and rules of operation of payment systems in the European Union. In this way, we expect to increase the reliability and efficiency of payments and the acceptance of non-cash payment instruments, simultaneously ensuring gradual compliance with the requirements for integration into the Single European Payment Area – SEPA.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: 30 years of monetary independence Introduction speech by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the marking of the 30 years of monetary independence, Skopje, 28 April 2022. *** Distinguished President of the Republic of North Macedonia, Distinguished Prime Minister of the Republic of North Macedonia, Distinguished Minister of Finance, Respected members of the Government Dear guests, It has long been said that history is a witness to the past, example and lesson to the present and lesson and warning to the future. Therefore, the celebration of the thirtieth anniversary of a momentous event, such as the monetary independence of the modern Macedonian state, is not just an honor and a motive for celebration. It is also an obligation, standing before the generations of devotees who have invested in what is today our modern monetary history, but also before the generations to whom we owe the future. As the great Goran Stefanovski once said, "Identity is a story about who we are, why we are, and what we want." Monetary independence and our currency - the denar are the central chapter in our story - an essential element of our identity. In 1991, the dream of an independent, sovereign and autonomous, modern Macedonian state came true. Yet, without the monetary independence that happened these days in 1992, without an independent central bank and without a national currency, our story would not have been complete.

The authorities have delegated this task to Norges Bank and decided that the Bank’s monetary policy objective is to keep inflation low and stable. The inflation target is quantified in the regulation on monetary policy as annual consumer price inflation over time of close to 2.5 percent. The Bank’s policy instrument is the key policy rate. Confidence that inflation will be kept low and stable is underpinned by the central bank’s independence. Norges Bank has a clear mandate and an independent position. This fosters trust in the Bank’s ability to do its job. But a regulation defining the inflation target and central bank independence are not enough. Confidence in the inflation target can only be upheld if the central bank actually ensures that inflation is low and stable over time, thereby maintaining monetary stability. Credibility and trust are built up over time. In Norway, inflation has been low and stable for a quarter of a century. As the expression goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. How is money created? Today, there are two forms of central bank money. One of the forms is common knowledge – banknotes and coins. The other, bank reserves at Norges Bank, is less well known. The sum total of banknotes and coins and bank reserves at Norges Bank is about NOK 85 billion.5 But the total money supply is much larger than this. Customer deposits in banks are also money. These deposits, referred to as deposit money, total more than NOK 2 trillion in Norway.
Another possibility is that low long-term rates reflect unusually strong demand for long-term securities, for example, by pension funds seeking to improve the match between the durations of their assets and liabilities, by holders of mortgage-backed securities seeking to maintain the durations of their portfolios, or by foreign central banks that have been acquiring dollars. China may have been playing an especially large role, as its central bank has intervened in foreign exchange markets to peg the renminbi at a low level against the dollar. Of course, last week the People’s Bank of China announced that it had revalued the renminbi against the dollar by 2.1 percent, with the stated intention of managing the renminbi’s exchange value against an unspecified currency basket. This is not a large revaluation, but some observers think that it is the beginning of a much bigger move over time. If this is the case, we may gain a better understanding of the impact, if any, that Chinese exchange rate policy has had on U.S. bond rates. An alternative to “special factors” as an explanation for the low level of long-term yields is the possibility that the flat yield curve reflects the market’s assessment that bad news is on the horizon. In other words, investors may expect only modest increases in the funds rate in the future because they think that the drags I’ve described will keep demand on the weak side for some time to come.

GDP for Mainland-Norway has on average increased by 2.8 per cent annually since 1990. This compares to 1.7 per cent in Sweden, 2.1 per cent in Denmark, 1.9 per cent in Finland and 2.5 per cent in Iceland over the same period. The differences for average GDP growth since 1995 are somewhat smaller. Although GDP growth in Norway was moderate in 2001, capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy remains high. So far, the impact of the international slowdown on the Norwegian economy has been limited, partly due to high oil prices. Unemployment has been low since the mid-1990’s. Private consumption is expected to remain buoyant due to high wage growth and an expansionary fiscal policy in the years ahead. Prices for domestically produced goods and services are rising fast. Inflation in Norway is being dampened by a close to zero rise in prices for imported consumer goods. The different cyclical developments in Norway are also reflected in the stock market. Norwegian stock prices have become much less correlated with world markets over the last years. The correlation is considerably lower than in the other Nordic countries. The correlation for Denmark is also rather low, but this is partly due to low exchange rate correlation. When looking at the correlations using national currencies, the Danish correlation is higher and more in line with that for Sweden and Finland. BIS Review 47/2002  1  Iceland and Norway have the highest key interest rates among the Nordic countries, at 7.9 and 7.0 per cent respectively.
For one, I do not think the economic expansion—now in its ninth year—is vulnerable just because it is “old.” As 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  we like to say, expansions don’t die of old age—they die either because monetary policy needs to be tightened appreciably to combat rising inflation, or because the economy gets hit with a large shock that overwhelms the ability of the Federal Reserve and other policymakers to stabilize it successfully. In general, with inflation below the FOMC’s long-run objective we can be cautious in how we adjust monetary policy. Similarly, I am not concerned about the recent flattening of the Treasury yield curve even though some commentators believe that such a flattening foreshadows a recession. At the end of 2017, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and 2-year Treasury note had narrowed to 52 basis points, from 125 basis points at the start of the year. As I see it, some flattening in the yield curve should be expected as we gradually remove monetary policy accommodation. If the yield curve were not flattening, it would suggest that we were behind the curve in removing accommodation. Moreover, this recent flattening is not particularly pronounced. For example, the 10-year/2-year spread of 52 basis points is only 46 basis points narrower than the average since 1978. In addition, all else equal, we should expect the yield curve to be flatter than normal in the current environment.

One area I might be slightly—but not particularly—worried about is financial market asset valuations, which I would characterize as elevated. While valuations are noteworthy, I am less concerned than I might be otherwise because the economy’s performance and outlook seem consistent with what we see in financial markets. Volatility in the real economy has been low, and this has been matched by low volatility in financial markets, which has helped support high valuations. I am also less worried because the financial system today is much more resilient and robust than it was a decade ago. Thus, even if financial asset prices were to decline significantly—which presumably would occur if the economic outlook were to deteriorate—I don’t think such declines would have the destructive impact we saw a decade ago. Higher capital and liquidity requirements for major banks have made the banking system more resilient and better able to absorb market shocks without this impairing its ability to intermediate credit flows between borrowers and savers. It was the collapse of confidence in the financial system in 2008 that caused credit availability to dry up, contributing greatly to the severity of the Great Recession.7 So, what am I worried about? Two macroeconomic concerns warrant mention. The first is the risk of economic overheating. Now, this seems like an odd issue to focus on when inflation is low, but it strikes me that this is a real risk over the next few years.