samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For the recovery to be sustained, the economy must eventually be supported by a pickup in private capital spending. Thailand is no exception. It is understandable why private investment so far has not contributed much to the economic recovery following the 1997 crisis. With about half of industrial capacity lying idle at the trough of the situation as a result of prior over-investment and demand contraction, there was very little incentive for firms to spend further on capital accumulation. Thus, the share of real private investment to real GDP fell from the average of 33 percent between 1990 and 1996 to just 11 percent in 1999. The collapse in private investment is also reflected in the large and persistent saving-investment surplus, which has thus far narrowed only slowly despite the strong recovery in GDP. These symptoms show that a recovery in private investment has lagged substantially behind the overall economic recovery and that there is still much room for private investment to catch up and close the existing saving-investment gap. The good news is that we have already begun to see a gradual pick-up in capital spending. Private investment growth that was at a modest 4.7 percent in 2001 has accelerated to 13.3 percent in 2002 and 17.5 percent in the first half of this year, and the share of real private investment to real GDP has also risen to 16 percent last quarter. But will this trend continue long enough to provide the needed fuel to sustain the current expansion?

Moreover, the allowed holding period of foreign currency deposits was extended from 3 to 6 months. The important lesson here is that we cannot push away globalization. Instead, we must learn to cope with and understand it well enough to reap maximum benefit from such an open environment. At the same time, we must reinforce our own immunity system, for example, by strengthening and broadening the domestic sector and by having good early warning indicators so that large capital fluctuations, should they occur, will not put a strain on the economy and impede our growth process. Appropriate policy mix regarding interest rate, exchange rate, and capital account liberalization thus remains an important challenge for the central bank. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope I have done my part today in sharing with you my assessment of the economy. My key point is that the economy is now doing better in terms of both the growth prospects and macroeconomic stability, and has the potential to continue to do well in the next year as the global economic environment improves. This important turnaround has come about through a combination of hard work, luck, and appropriate supportive policies, not to mention the progress that has been made on economic restructuring and reforms since the crisis. But most important perhaps has been the commitment, the spirit, and the confidence of our private sector that have helped steer the Thai economy through one of her most difficult periods.
This partly explains the feeble economic recovery and declining potential GDP growth trend in the US (Chart 2). 6. The weak recovery in the US in recent years fell outside the expectations of many economists at the Fed. Because of the lacklustre growth, QE was extended and expanded, feeding an addiction from “low for long”, to “low for longer” and then to “low forever”, and developing a dependence on QE by the market. When the then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at the possibility of scaling down the asset purchase programme in May 2013, the market panicked in an episode we later called the “Taper Tantrum”. 7. So, why is the present recovery weaker than in previous cycles? This is a complicated and controversial subject. I believe that both cyclical factors and structural factors, such as household de-leveraging, the high home inventory levels after the bursting of the housing bubble and structural changes in the population and labour market, are at play. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  External factors are also involved, including the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011. However, due to time constraints, I will focus on how QE may have supported US economic recovery and affected the global financial environment. 8. The prevailing mainstream view, including the major advanced economies such as the US, Europe and Japan, as well as the International Monetary Fund, is that QE is the right policy response to prop up the economy and stave off deflation.

Typically, when the source of an inflationary shock is stemming mainly from demand, monetary policy will respond proactively to prevent the economy from overheating. And when faced with supply shocks, to the extent that such shocks are seen to have no lasting impact on inflation, central banks will “look through” and extend the medium-term policy horizon if necessary. But such a neat categorisation does not adequately capture the situation we are facing in the euro area today. We are not seeing the type of demand-led overheating that is visible in the United States and, despite a tight labour market, the risk of a wage-price spiral so far seems to remain contained. Instead, the euro area is seeing an increase in inflation driven by two unprecedented shocks. These shocks have constrained global supply, but they have also shifted demand and led to a large and persistent inflation response. The first shock was the pandemic. Pandemic-related supply bottlenecks and rising prices have reinforced each other, with firms reacting to the threat of shortages by ordering more and earlier. This “bullwhip effect”[1] has driven up prices along the pricing chain. At the same time, the fiscal and monetary policy response to the pandemic has succeeded in protecting nominal incomes, thereby supporting a fast recovery of demand when our economies reopened. The resilience of incomes has, in turn, triggered large swings in demand across sectors. During the lockdown period, and thanks notably to e-commerce, consumption was concentrated on durable goods.
But alongside low inflation we’ve had the lowest nominal interest rates that most of us can remember. Short-term rates have averaged some 6¼% compared with some 11¼% over the preceding decade. And 10-year government bond yields have fallen, with inflationary expectations, to around 5¼% which apart from a brief period last year is the lowest they’ve been for nearly 40 years. Much more fundamentally we’ve enjoyed the longest period of uninterrupted, quarter by quarter, economic growth since records began some 45 years ago - with annual growth averaging 2.8% - between ¼ and ½% above most estimates of our underlying trend rate. The number of people in employment is the highest on record. And unemployment has fallen from a peak of 10½% on a claimant count basis to the present rate of 4%. That is the lowest for 20 years in the UK as a whole, and just about the lowest in nearly every region. This is not just past history. Having come through the global economic slowdown a year or two ago, the economy as a whole is now again growing at well above trend, with inflation a bit below target; and the broad prospect for the next couple of years - on most forecasts, including the MPC’s February forecast based upon our collective best assumptions - is for continuing relatively strong growth with relatively high employment and relatively low inflation.

We observe financial firms engaging in a variety of ways with fintech companies. This can be through the development of in-house projects such as setting up innovation labs or encouraging developers to code on open application program interfaces (APIs). This can also be through collaboration with industry consortiums to come up with unified industry standards that enhance operability and enable future technological advancements, or it can be through partnering with or investing directly in fintech companies. Some of the interesting questions for supervision revolve around things like: what new benefits might these new technologies bring? Will they enhance existing processes or bring about entirely new solutions to existing financial sector problems? Will they create risk, mitigate risk, or simply reallocate existing risks? How should the current supervisory framework evolve to incorporate these types of developments? The New York Fed is assessing the implications of fintech developments through participation in a wide range of Federal Reserve System, interagency, and  3  “Digital Disruption: How Fintech is Forcing Banking to a Tipping Point,” March 2016. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  international efforts. In addition, we meet regularly with supervised firms, fintech companies, and industry groups to follow these developments. Our supervisory program will continue to evolve with the underlying technologies. •  Reputation risk Over the past few years, the New York Fed has been challenging the financial industry to consider the many factors that have contributed to recent, widespread misconduct and the perceived lack of trust in the financial sector.
22.12.2020  Testimony by the Governor of the Banco de España before the Audit Committee on Democratic Quality, the Fight against Corruption, and Institutional and Legal Reforms Congress of Deputies Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Ladies and gentlemen, I appreciate your request that I should appear before this Audit Committee on Democratic Quality, the Fight against Corruption, and Institutional and Legal Reforms to address the question of the impartiality and autonomy of independent economic authorities. Allow me to take as a starting point for my address the importance the economic literature has attributed in recent decades to the quality of institutions, as a linchpin of economic development and growth. As part of this broad notion of the quality of institutions, independent agencies – over which governments have no controlling or management powers – are particularly important for achieving certain goals. Indeed, in some areas of the economy independent institutions have a long-standing tradition in market economies and are a basic pillar of their institutional structure. The rationale behind such institutions lies in considerations of general interest, with the conviction that independence allows a greater benefit to be had for society than that which would be attained were powers assumed directly by political authorities. Independent agencies acquire this status by decision of the maximum political authorities of the State (parliaments), and are given a remit in specific decision-making areas (for instance, monetary policy for central banks) and a legal framework to decide and act independently in the matters under their purview.

It would seem, therefore, that no significant growth could  BIS Review 84/2005  1  be expected next year if the underlying pace of economic activity does not accelerate from this year’s level. The increase in Malta’s fuel bill is also roughly equivalent to the narrowing of the fiscal deficit achieved over the past seven years. In the circumstances, it would be foolish to allow the progress made at considerable cost to be blown away by this external shock. An attempt to cushion the increase in the oil price through borrowing may be economically justifiable in terms of sustaining the incipient recovery suggested by recent GDP data. On the other hand, any borrowing would have to be serviced; and, because it would constitute interference with market signals, it could also retard the process of economic adjustment. The only long-term remedy to counteract the effects of higher fuel prices is to expand productivity and output, and therefore incomes. Indeed, the oil price shock is another compelling reason, if one were needed, for redoubling our efforts to energize the economy. … and by a higher dependency ratio due to population ageing. The third challenge is the demographic shift caused by population ageing, such that the ratio of the working age to the dependent population is expected to shrink from almost four- to just over two-toone by the late 2020s. Some effects of this trend are already being felt this year as the first cohorts of the baby-boom generation reach retirement age.
During 2004 the banking system assets were raised by Lek 52.8 billion (or 14.1 percent), about Lek 18.5 billion more than the growth of assets evidenced over 2003. Year 2004 underwent a significant rise in lending activity, with a growth rate of 38 percent (or Lek 19.3 billion) at end of 2004, compared to 30.5 percent at end of 2003. Therefore, lending rose to 16.4 percent of total assets of the system at end of 2004, from 13.5 percent in the same period of 2003. Lending quality indicator (problem loans to credit balance ratio) is estimated at 4.2 percent, from 4.6 percent at end of 2003. The lowest level of this indicator highlights improvement in lending quality and limited banking system exposure to credit risk. Downward trend of capital adequacy ratio during 2004 was due to a better exploitation of banks’ capacities in terms of extending in riskier investments. During 2004 the supervision process, trying to be proactive and continuous, had on its focus the risk assessment of banks’ activity. Following up the requirements of Supervision Development Plan, the document on “Operative Supervision Policy” was drafted and approved, prescribing banks’ supervision principles. In view of this policy, the supervision cycle for banks that present less concern to supervision is lengthened from 12 months to 18 months, whereas for problematic banks it is reduced to 6 months.

The American dollar was appreciated in the first part of the year, as a consequence of expectations for a tightening of the United States monetary policy. But, during the second part of the year, the attention of financial markets mainly focused on the structural problems of the American economy, that of the budget deficit and current account deficit. These concerns brought about a quick decrease in the American dollar value, reaching the minimum levels against the common European currency. In face of these developments, both monetary policy and fiscal policy of larger economies maintained expansionist features. Notwithstanding the rise of US dollar interest rates, they remained at low historical levels while Euro interest rates remained unchanged. The fiscal policy has impacted the growth of domestic demand, either in the euro area or in the United States. The progressive integration of the Albanian economy in the international markets of products and capitals makes that this economy benefits from these incentive policies, in the form of lower interest rates for foreign currency and in the form of higher demand for its exports. Placed in this positive background, the Albanian economy growth continues to be generated from the dynamic development of the private sector, while maintenance of the macroeconomic stability and economic growth support through investments in the priority development fields: infrastructure, education and health, have been a priority to the public sector. BIS Review 38/2005  1  During 2004, investments in the economy marked the same level as during 2003, representing nearly 25.4 percent of GDP.
The process of selecting Turing started when we asked the UK public to “Think Science” and put forward nominations for scientists they would like to see appear on a banknote. We had an overwhelming response, with nearly 250,000 members of the public making a nomination. I’m glad that so many of you wanted to be a part of this process. There's something of the character of a nation in its money, and we are right to consider and celebrate the people on our banknotes. We were aided in the selection process by our Banknote Character Advisory Committee, made up of seven external members and two members of Bank staff. The Committee had the unenviable task of narrowing down the nearly 1,000 unique nominations to a shortlist of just 12. Each of those on the shortlist were hugely significant in their own right, and collectively the shortlist celebrates the important contributions scientists have made to our nation's history, and indeed, our leading position in scientific research. However, it was Alan Turing who was ultimately selected. I’d like to reflect on why that was. I think, at the root, it’s because Alan represents something of which we’re all very proud. Even if we can’t precisely articulate the reason. I believe that part of the answer lies in him being someone who, not content with abstract ideas, applied himself to the physical embodiment of those ideas. And from his sheer force of will, came enormous leaps of progress.

I therefore wish to implore Bank of China to continue playing an effective role and stimulate economic activity by providing well structured financial products and services, especially those aimed at boosting growth in key sectors such as mining, energy, tourism, manufacturing and agriculture. However, in order to achieve this, there is need for Bank of China and other commercial banks to do more in terms of reducing lending interest rates and influence the safe expansion of private sector credit and at the same time contribute to the reduction of the cost of doing business in Zambia. The current environment of relatively low inflation and stable exchange rate offer a good opportunity for lowering commercial banks’ lending interest rates. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me conclude by further challenging Bank of China (Zambia) Limited to expand beyond one branch and broaden its customer base and operations swiftly in order to consolidate the gains that have been achieved over the last 10 years. I thank you. 2  BIS Review 36/2007
This is encouraging and suggests that the reforms implemented in recent years have made the economy more resilient to external shocks. There is, however, no room for complacency, particularly at this time of renewed financial market turmoil. It is clear that further difficult policy choices remain to be made. The lessons from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis should serve as a stark reminder that the benign neglect of accumulating imbalances, especially in the context of a monetary union, will have serious economic and social repercussions, sooner rather than later. Allowing short-term considerations to delay the timing of reforms, therefore, only serves to make the inevitable corrections more painful. This challenge should be faced with pragmatism. Rigorous fiscal consolidation and structural reforms may well cause some pain and even keep growth subdued, but this is a temporary phenomenon as the ensuing gains in efficiency and competitiveness should improve the economy’s ability to take fuller advantage of new export opportunities. On their part, businesses need to respond flexibly to changes in global demand, especially in a likely scenario in which foreign markets will be characterized by more efficient competitors and more cost conscious consumers. In these circumstances, innovation and the quality of human capital will be of paramount importance. Malta’s ability to compete internationally will depend increasingly on a more cost-effective use of human and physical resources and sustained efficiency gains in both the public and the private sectors.

Chart 7, summarising the results, is a version of a graph we published in the last two Inflation Reports. Note that, over time, the effects have tended to be positive. The average age and experience of the workforce has grown; more people have gone into higher education and higher-paid occupations. But on top of that underlying trend, we’ve seen sharp movements, in both directions, during the recent cycle. Both the drop in job creation during the Great Recession, and the corresponding pick-up during the recovery, were skewed towards the less skilled, less well paid end of the jobs market. Chart 8, which plots the differences in job creation across three classes of occupational characteristics, depicts one aspect of that pattern5. You can see similar differences in rates of job creation between young and old, less and more educated. And as I outlined in the introduction, the effect of these swings was to add materially to the growth of average earnings during the downturn and to subtract from it in 2013 and 2014. Unskilled employment generally more cyclical Before asking why this has happened let me make a few points about the estimates. First, there are some approximations involved. One involves the mix of surveys: we’re estimating the impact of compositional changes on LFS pay data and assuming the effect simply carries over to the AWE. That’s the most reasonable assumption, but it’s an assumption nonetheless.
The fact that these considerations are now included in the Act and not just mentioned in the preparatory work emphasises the importance the Government and Riksdag attach to them. This makes it even more important for the Riksbank to show that these considerations are included in the monetary policy deliberations and how they are  2/10  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  included. We may thus need to be even clearer about it in our decisions and in the documentation for the decisions. But this will not entail any revolutionary changes in monetary policy, nor was the legislator expecting there to be, judging by the preparatory work for the new act. The Riksbank has already previously conducted what is known as flexible inflation targeting, which includes taking into account the real economy. In principle, it is now being legislated that the Riksbank shall conduct monetary policy in this way. More focus on motives for decisions and on evaluation In the new Act, the Riksdag has wanted to clarify the boundaries of the objectives and powers within the Riksbank's various areas of responsibility in relation to one another. Among other things, this means that we will need to be clearer in stating the purpose of various measures, that is, which of the Riksbank's objectives we are trying to achieve and which tasks we want to resolve with various measures.

It is the Riksbank's task to stabilise inflation around 2 per cent and we have assessed that it is better to act with monetary policy than to wait and see and risk being surprised by continued high inflation that requires even greater tightening later on. 5/10  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Inflation thus needs to fall clearly this year, and it is important that underlying inflation also falls. We assessed in February that the interest rate needed to be raised and that we will probably need to raise it in April as well. As usual, it is the outlook for the economy and inflation that is decisive for monetary policy, and we are well aware that it takes time for the Riksbank's policy rate increases to have a full impact on the economy. As it is difficult to know how quickly the impact will be and how great the effects of the increases will be on the real economy and inflation, it is still important to follow new outcomes and new indicators to obtain a picture of inflation prospects. Inflation has already started to decline in some countries, but as we noted in February, we see few signs that underlying inflation has started to decline in Sweden. Nor has this picture been changed by the new information on inflation that has come in since our decision. On the contrary. In February, inflation excluding energy prices rose and the outcome was significantly above our latest assessment.