samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The HKMA looks forward to being a long-term partner with you on this journey, and I hope you can offer us your unwavering support too. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Future-proofing Hong Kong for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) 20. As we look beyond banks to the wider financial system, we turn our attention to initiatives that will have an impact on the financial system as a whole, one of which is CBDCs, the focus of our second strategy. 21. As the world becomes more interconnected than ever, cross-border and cross-boundary transactions have never been more frequent. Many of us have witnessed how payment instruments have evolved over time, from banknotes to credit cards to cross-border payment networks. While CBDCs may not see mainstream adoption any time soon, this is something that has the potential to profoundly alter the global payment landscape. We must work with the industry and international community to ensure that we address both the technical and non-technical issues involved. 22. For this reason, we have been researching wholesale CBDCs as they have great potential in addressing the long-standing pain points in cross-border payments. Lately, the HKMA’s joint research with the Bank of Thailand has been ranked by the market as one of the most mature of its kind in the world; a testimony that we stand at the forefront in the realm of wholesale CBDCs. We recently expanded the scale of the project to include more participating jurisdictions. 23.

Some of you may already be aware that the HKMA has begun researching retail CBDCs (rCBDCs). We have been working with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Hub Hong Kong Centre on Project Aurum, which will focus on the technical aspect of issuing r-CBDCs and the possible architectural designs. 24. Similar to the majority of central banks, we see that a lot of issues need to be thought through before issuing r-CBDC. For instance, how should we strike a right balance between privacy and traceability? How do we mitigate cybersecurity risks? How will it affect the effectiveness of monetary transmission? These are important questions that need to be answered before reaching a conclusion. 25. Against this backdrop, the HKMA will soon begin a comprehensive study on e-HKD to understand its use cases, benefits, and related risks. This is to increase our technical readiness so that we are prepared for all kinds of circumstances in the future, including the potential for Hong Kong to issue e-HKD. We have already established an internal crossdepartmental working group within the HKMA to study the relevant technical, policy and legal issues, and we hope to offer our initial thought on this complex matter in 12 months’ time. 26. Needless to say, CBDC will remain one of the most important topics among the global central banking community in the months or years to come. The HKMA will continue to work with the BIS and other international institutions to prepare Hong Kong for the evolving landscape. Creating the next-generation Data infrastructure 27.
Since 2004, global oil prices have more than doubled, a far sharper rise than at any time since the 1970s, when as some of you may recall, inflation took off, eventually peaking at 25%. Then, last winter, UK wholesale gas prices surged, as a result of supply and storage problems that were, in large part, specific to our market. The resulting increases in household gas and electricity bills have had a large direct impact on inflation. By December, they alone were directly contributing 1pp to the measured inflation rate. These energy price shocks are now starting to unwind, at least for now. The oil price has fallen back, although the outlook remains uncertain – the thin margin of spare capacity continues to make oil prices unusually sensitive to all kinds of news, from politics to weather and supply. We can have more confidence that the gas price shock is ebbing. The temporary supply and storage issues which caused the price spike last winter have been addressed. Together with a milder winter, this has helped to bring wholesale prices back to where they were two years ago, and retail prices have started to fall back. So, just as energy price increases have boosted inflation over the recent past, it now seems likely that energy price falls are going to reduce it – possibly quite sharply – over the year ahead. Indeed we expect inflation to fall below the target by the end of 2007. Let me make two observations about this episode.

In our better moments, we reflect on all that we have learnt, through bad times as well as good. But there are days when we peer in the mirror and ask anxiously whether we have lost our freshness and drive. Have we become too set in our ideas and in our ways? Have others stolen a march on us? Have we become, to a degree, prisoners of our own past Maybe even victims of our own perceived success? The only way to deal with such fears is to confront them. That is a far larger task than I can do justice to tonight, and it needs to be part of a continuing effort to improve our performance. But let me try and give you an overview of some of the main issues in the remainder of my remarks. 5  “The Inflation Target five years on”, lecture delivered by Mervyn King at the London School of Economics, October 1997. BIS Review 20/2007  3  Intellectual development I want to start with the MPC’s intellectual development. As the world around us changes, it throws up new policy challenges which force us to examine old ideas and develop new ones. So the MPC has been on an intellectual voyage of discovery since it was established. The formation of the MPC unleashed a ferment of intellectual debate and activity inside the Bank. It was a thrilling time for those who were closely involved.
Assessment of the Norwegian financial infrastructure The financial crisis was a reminder that increasingly complex financial instruments and demanding technological solutions have increased risk in the financial infrastructure. In the  4  Within certain amounts. Customers must still enter their PIN code in connection with large payments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  aftermath of the crisis, the international recommendations for the financial infrastructure have been tightened. 5 The new principles provide a comprehensive standard for the financial infrastructure across borders and across various systems. The purpose is to promote a robust and efficient financial infrastructure 6 that supports the stability of the global financial system. The new principles devote considerable attention to such areas as operational risk, derivate exposure and the use of central counterparties. Norges Bank oversees financial infrastructure and supervises interbank clearing and settlement systems. There are two systems that are licensed by Norges Bank to provide clearing or settlement: NICS and DNB as a private settlement bank. For these systems, Norges Bank, as supervisory authority, may require that owners take corrective action for noncompliance with licence terms or the Payment Systems Act. In collaboration with Finanstilsynet, Norges Bank has recently conducted an assessment of important parts of the financial infrastructure in Norway in accordance with the international principles. 7 The main conclusion is that the financial infrastructure in Norway is robust and efficient. Nevertheless there is a need for some improvements.

The bill states that banks will have an obligation to accept cash from customers and make deposits available to customers in the form of cash. This is a further specification of banks’ responsibility for cash handling. The bill also gives banks the freedom to choose how services are to be organised, as long as they are able to meet customer demand. Conclusion Let me sum up: The Norwegian payment system is efficient and up-to-date. It gives the nation a competitive advantage over many other countries. The owners must have management systems that enable them to have sound control of operations. The owners’ responsibility also includes backup solutions. This responsibility does not change if all or parts of operations are managed by others. Payments can become cheaper, faster and more user-friendly than they are at present. Banks should price payments so that they achieve acceptable earnings and promote profitable investments. This will also serve the interest of customers. It is of benefit to us, as a society, that banks and other operators are now investing in secure and forward-looking solutions. The aim must be to remain at the forefront of international developments. There is growing urgency to put in place new solutions. In this respect, the system owners – the banks – have collective interests that go beyond pure private financial considerations of the individual bank. Thank you for your attention. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches
It is timely, therefore, for you to consider what type of leader you want to be, what type of firm you want to lead, and what type of industry you want to work in and influence. I have some views on all three, which we will get to in a moment. I am encouraged that members of the industry have convened here today to engage on these issues. I think it is important that the industry tackle this together. You can learn from one another. And, given the scandals of recent years, you really do have to sink or swim together. Before the recent spate of conduct problems, there were times when one might be secretly happy when a competitor stumbled through some sort of misconduct. All the better if such a stumble generated negative publicity and headlines. Today, the situation is vastly different. When each new scandal emerges, the industry is painted with the same broad brush. This underscores the importance of taking both individual and collective responsibility for reform. You have a personal stake in improving bank culture. Your firms have a stake too. And so does the industry. There are three messages I am going to focus on today: First, stay in banking and be good role models of the behaviors and conduct that we all want to see. It’s important. The banking industry needs your talents. And, if done the right way, it will result in a fulfilling career.

4 See Bogle, 45–46. 5 See What is Banking For? Remarks by Onora O’Neill, Reforming Culture and Behavior in the Financial Services  Industry: Expanding the Dialogue, October 20, 2016. 6 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  6 See generally Robert H. Frank, Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy (2016). 7 See generally Dan Awrey, William Blair, and David Kershaw, “Between Law and Markets: Is There a Role for  Culture and Ethics in Financial Regulation?” 38 Del. J. Corp. L. 217 (2013) (discussing the need for “otherregarding” norms in finance). 8 See Criminal Accountability and Culture, Remarks by Preet Bharara, Reforming Culture and Behavior in the  Financial Services Industry: Expanding the Dialogue, October 20, 2016. 9 See Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, Section III.1.5. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
How are the dialogue and decisions likely to develop in the next few years? These are some of the questions that I shall be considering today. 1. Convergence A natural starting-point for a discussion of the current economic situation in Europe is the convergence reports that the Commission and the European Monetary Institute (EMI) presented at the end of March. •  The price trend for the EU area in recent years is impressive. The disparities in the rate of price increases have diminished and in January this year inflation was below 2 per cent in all the Member States except Greece. This development is fundamentally a consequence of the monetary policy focus on price stability, backed up by economic policy in general. Other factors have been increased international competition and low oil prices. •  The picture of government finances in the EU countries has also brightened. Progress has been made in the process of financial consolidation. However, a number of countries are only just below or at 3 per cent and have qualified thanks to measures of a temporary nature. •  A high degree of exchange rate stability now prevails in most EU countries and tensions in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) have been moderate. •  The notable convergence of long-term interest rates is another indication of the stable situation and EMU expectations. BIS Review 50/1998  -2-  All in all, the reports from the Commission and the EMI show that convergence in the Maastricht sense has come a long way.

The European Commission and the European Investment Fund (part of the European Investment Bank Group) have launched the ”BlueInvest Fund” available for the “blue” economic activities. The funds are aimed at companies that develop solutions for renewable energy and “blue” biotechnology, among others. I will conclude my brief opening speech on a special, more personal note. Dear Mr. McDowell, this summer you will complete your tenure as Vice President of the European Investment Bank. On behalf of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania, allow me to express our gratitude and highest regards for your activity during your mandate. Please accept the expression of genuine appreciation for your commitment, your dedication and your leadership, which have led to remarkable results in investments in the Romanian economy. We wish you all the best possible outcomes for all your future endeavours. I now invite Gyorgy Attila, State Secretary at the Ministry of Public Finance to take the floor. 1 1 NBR Annual Report 2018, pages 21 – 26  2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
Surely, they say, enormous increases in the monetary base are likely to be accompanied by substantial price level increases. The problem with this story is that the banks have not been lending these reserves nearly enough to generate big increases in broad monetary aggregates. And even if they did, as an indicator of inflation, the monetary aggregates lost their predictive content many decades ago. The evidence, again, is that inflation remains low. But what if? What if lending picks up? Well, that would be really terrific. Dramatically higher bank lending would surely be associated with higher loan demand and a generally stronger economy. Strong growth and diminishing resource slack would be part of this story, and a rising rate environment would be a natural force diminishing the rising inflation pressures. In the meantime, monitoring the entire state of the economy along with  6  Evans and Fisher (2011). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  inflation seems like a sensible and appropriate safeguard against this currently low probability scenario. Third, another potential source of inflationary pressures would be rising inflation expectations. Here, I mean a breakout of inflation expectations separate from any fundamentals that might accompany the previously discussed cases of rising commodity prices and stronger bank lending. One could think of this as the spontaneous combustion theory of inflation. The story goes like this: Households and businesses simply wake up one day and expect higher inflation is coming without any further improvement in economic fundamentals.

Despite current low rates, I still often hear people say that higher inflation is just around the corner. I confess that I am somewhat exasperated by these repeated warnings given our current environment of very low inflation. Many times, the strongest concerns are expressed by folks who said the same thing back in 2009 and then in 2010 and, well, you get the picture. OK, five years later we still need to carefully assess this very serious question. Let me offer five reasons why I still see the economic environment as pointing to below-target inflation for several years. First, many commentators see rising commodity prices as a harbinger of rising inflation pressures. Certainly, back in 2008 and 2010 there were instances when energy and commodity prices rose to high levels. This put pressure on inflation and also reduced aggregate demand. There is a lot of evidence that these types of relative price increases result in only transitory increases in consumer price levels. 6 At the moment, even these transitory upward pressures are absent, and the current weak state of global demand contributes to downward pressures. Until something unexpected, and frankly positive, happens with the world economy, commodity prices seem like an even more unlikely propellant for strongly rising inflation than they usually would be. Second, some say a classic warning sign of inflation is the enormous size of the Fed’s balance sheet and the greater than $ trillion of excess reserves sitting on commercial banks’ books.
Consequently, thanks to the design of a general provision such as the present one, along with a tightening of the parameters that determine  BIS Review 62/2008  5  the specific provision, the Spanish banking system had the highest volume of provisions among the developed countries when the market turbulence emerged. Last lesson: on how the turbulence affects us all I have attempted to convey to you that, in Spain, banking regulation has proven to be strict, having included concern over procyclicality among its criteria for action, and that Spanish banks have properly managed the risks associated with financial developments in recent years. The absence of a subprime segment, of an originate-to-distribute model, of complex structured products and of off-balance sheet investment vehicles attest to the fact we have all done the right things. Can we afford to be complacent? I would say no, for three reasons. First, because if we have not made certain mistakes, this is largely due to the fact that our financial system has been very traditional, without sophisticated institutions such as those that have most suffered from the turbulence. Second, because, as I have already said, the Spanish economy needs to undergo adjustment in several areas, but essentially in that of residential investment. And third, because the strong interconnections within the financial system, which is today more global than ever, mean that if markets cease to function, that has negative consequences not only for those that generate the problems but for all those participating in them.

William C Dudley: Remarks at the Regional Employment Press Briefing Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2010 Regional Employment Press Briefing, New York, 14 April 2010. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome to the New York Fed’s 2010 Regional Employment Press Briefing. The past few years have been an extraordinary time for policymakers. We have been very aggressive in providing support to the economy and it now appears that we are emerging from a deep and protracted recession. Economic activity expanded over the second half of 2009, suggesting that a recovery has begun. While we continue to receive encouraging news, growth is likely to be muted compared with the early stages of past recoveries. As a result, the unemployment rate is likely to decline over the near term at a very gradual pace, if at all. In the labor market, employment has begun to expand. We hope this is the beginning of a sustained period of job growth. Total employment shrank by roughly 8 million jobs since the peak of the cycle, and the current unemployment rate of 9.7 percent remains unacceptably high. At the regional level, here in the New York-New Jersey region, the labor market was not hit as hard as in many areas in the country, and the pace of job losses in our region has eased.
In addition, Turkey was among the top ten countries in terms of improving its score on the United Nations’ human resource development index, which is based on a country’s literacy rate, per capita income, and life expectancy. Of course, such a nation-wide measurement takes no account of the wide differences between urban and rural conditions. Be that as it may, the strong growth of the working age population, the high degree of urbanisation, and increased numbers of well-educated young workers are all favourable to strong growth in labor productivity. - Turkey has a strong, dynamic and competitive private sector. The nonagricultural private sector recovered quickly from the financial crises in spite of unsettled political conditions and extremely high interest rates. In addition, it is the private sector that has been mainly responsible for capital formation. · - There have been interesting developments connected with Turkey’s foreign exchange earnings. Even though the official trade account and current account figures reflect sizeable deficits, I would like to emphasise that the level of merchandise exports is significantly understated due to its omission of rapidly growing but unrecorded “shuttle” trade with neighbouring countries. We are on the verge of being able to include these activities in our balance of payments figures. In addition, there has been serious underreporting of the value of transactions connected with some of Turkey’s foreign direct investments, a problem that the Central Bank is working to resolve. Now let me touch briefly on Turkey’s financial system. Turkey’s financial sector is still dominated by the banking sector.

Starting with the useful content of a resolution plan: a detailed balance sheet for all relevant corporate entities in the group at the most recent month end; a clear mapping of financial and operational interdependencies between affiliates; wind-down plans for all business areas linked to a comprehensive information data room; and a contact plan for major stakeholders. Now, listing the changes to Lehmans’ organisation and operations that should have resulted from drawing up robust RRPs: corporate entity based accounts and management information to supplement the business-line version (because corporate entities fail); clear segregation of handling client asset activities; controls over depositing client money with affiliates; employees hired by the entity for whom they work; a clear record of each entity’s title to business and associated intellectual property; robust risk systems that allow ready provenance of the balance sheet; contracts for the provision of key business services (eg banking systems) that allow continuity of provision of services in the event of a resolution; and arrangements for continuity of access to payment and settlement systems. This has been a very brief run through some very relevant case studies. But I hope it has illustrated the role that RRPs should play and the pressing need to have them in place. RRPs have come a long way in a short period of time, which is both essential and gratifying. But, of course, we haven’t actually produced any yet.