samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the case of the United States, the correction of the external deficit necessarily involves reducing the high budget deficit, which is a result of the highly expansionary fiscal policies pursued in recent years. The United States and other countries must, in the near future, adjust their monetary policy towards a stance more in keeping with a more advanced cyclical position, departing from what are at present very low official interest rates that entail a notable stimulus for activity. In this respect, an appropriate communication policy, avoiding the overreactions to which financial markets are prone, is essential. This is particularly important, moreover, given the continuing geopolitical uncertainties and the fact that the recent oil price rises, were they to become entrenched, would bear unfavourably on both price stability and the cause of global recovery, making the task of central banks more complicated. In sum, ahead of the current upturn in the international business cycle, we should bear in mind one of the main lessons of previous cycles. This is, namely, the importance of taking advantage of the good times to make the adjustments needed to correct imbalances and to equip economic policies with greater room for manoeuvre that may be used when more difficult times arrive. It is therefore vital that the emphasis of economic policy shift from the short to the medium term, as regards both the fiscal and monetary strands of policy and structural reforms.

In my opinion, this work is going in the right direction. For example, we have a general agreement that not all SIFIs are the same or pose the same degree of risk to the system, and that the framework should recognize this. Along the same lines, the idea is to have a system which builds in a sufficient degree of supervisory judgement to reflect aspects that cannot be quantified, but balanced with “constrained discretion” and a peer review process to ensure that there is a level playing field. And I think, and others think, that the resolvability of an institution should be taken into account in determining the systemic risk of a Global SIFI. For instance, a proper “living will” is a mechanism to reduce the impact of a bank failure and, therefore, to reduce the systemic risk these institutions pose. Finally, the FSB places strong emphasis on the importance of intensive supervision. The aspect of the FSB approach to SIFIs which has attracted most attention is the setting of higher capital requirements (or “loss absorbing capacity”) for SIFIs. We would be extremely naïve to think that extra capital is the answer to systemic risk. Holding extra capital does not resolve the problems of poor management or ill-advised risk taking. And we will never be able to require SIFIs to hold a level of capital sufficient to absorb the huge costs related to their potential bankruptcy.
A lower repo rate now and faster increases in the coming period seems to me a better monetary policy, when weighing the risks against the opportunity to return to the inflation target sooner and to have a more balanced resource utilisation (see Figure 7).10 The assessments and calculations I refer to here are based on the general framework presented in our Monetary Policy Report published in July.11 It is not entirely clear how this reasoning should be translated into recommendations for practical monetary policy. We are working on this issue within the bank. It scarcely needs to be said that the assessments and calculations I have implied today are uncertain, and that they will remain uncertain even when work on these issues has progressed further.12 Further measures are needed to strengthen financial stability In conclusion, I would like to discuss how the new framework for macroprudential policy affects my view of how monetary policy should be conducted. It is good that one single authority, Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority), is given a clear responsibility for decisions on supervisory measures. In this way, we avoid the problem that different authorities may try to put responsibility on others, which could have arisen if the responsibility was shared between several authorities. At the same time, it is positive that several authorities, including the Riksbank, are given a role to play in the work on macroprudential policy through the new financial stability council.

Firstly, a lower repo rate would mean that CPIF inflation returns to 2 per cent even faster and that resource utilisation is more balanced than in our forecasts (see Figure 7). Figure 7 More expansionary monetary policy Effects according to the Riksbank’s macro model Ramses Repo rate  4  4  3  CPIF  3  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 12  13  14  15  16  Unemployment  9  2  2  1  1  0  0 12  13  14  15  16  Real interest rate, 1 year  9  2  8  8  1  1  7  7  0  0  6  6  -1  -1  5  -2  5 12  13  Main scenario  14  15  16  2  -2 12  13  14  15  16  Lower interest rate  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Secondly, I have seen an incipient credibility problem and wanted to formulate monetary policy so that it appears well-balanced even when combined with assessments made outside of the Riksbank.
Norges Bank’s estimates, which are based on the assumption that interest rates in Norway will increase gradually,1 show that the rise in house prices will slow until 2008 and then stabilise. As the chart illustrates, there is considerable uncertainty associated with such estimates and we may also experience that prices fall. Household wealth In recent years, higher house prices have resulted in increased housing wealth. There is considerable uncertainty associated with estimates for housing wealth, but a conservative estimate indicates that housing wealth is 11 per cent higher than household financial assets and more than 40 per cent higher than household debt. Household gross financial assets have also increased more than debt in recent years (measured in NOK). This financial buffer reduces some of the concern related to debt growth. Nonetheless, developments in saving are uncertain. Credit market statistics may indicate that saving has declined considerably and is now fairly low after adjusting for the fact that owners are ploughing huge profits back into their companies as equity capital. The national accounts present a picture of higher saving. Total debt is unevenly distributed Developments in assets and debt are, naturally, unevenly distributed among different groups of households. Compared with the 1980s, the debt burden has increased in low- and middle-income households (deciles 1-6), often younger households in the start-up phase. This partly reflects changes in the tax system. Before the tax reform in 1992, extensive borrowing was very profitable for individuals with high income.

International price trends, where, for instance, oil prices are an important factor, affect domestic inflation by way of imports. An assessment of international resource utilisation can provide an indication, for instance, of how international prices may develop. The development in the value of the krona is important in the assessment of inflation. A change in the exchange rate has a direct effect on inflation in that the price of imported goods and services is affected, and also an indirect effect via aggregate demand. If the value of the krona changes in relation to other important trading currencies, this affects the competitiveness of Swedish goods and services and thereby demand and resource utilisation. Inflation expectations among households and companies can also affect the price-setting and wage formation processes and thereby inflation. One purpose of a clear inflation target and a monetary policy governed by such a target is to firmly establish the inflation target with the general public. At the same time, one should remember that the Riksbank is forced to take into account many other factors that influence price trends. These are often non-recurring factors, such as supply shocks in various forms, which are often difficult to predict. But above all it can be difficult to use monetary policy to prevent them having an impact on inflation. Monetary policy has an impact with a time lag, and it does not always reach the source of such a price rise.
In spite of the above and based on our interactions with some of you, there remain a lot of myths and misconceptions on Malaysia’s FEA rules, even amongst the banking fraternity. It is my hope that I am able to dispel these misperceptions surrounding Malaysia’s FEA rules specifically on activities that can be undertaken by non-residents for investments in Malaysia. 2  BIS Review 151/2010  It is also my hope that you will make the effort to convey this message to your colleagues, clients and international counterparts. Let me now share with you five of the misconceptions Myth 1: FEA rules are restrictive We recognized that for an investor, capital mobility is important. Malaysia has always ensured that the rules are not restrictive to capital flows or do not penalise investors who contribute to the development of the country. Today, non-residents are free to transfer their funds into Malaysia for investments in any type of ringgit assets and also remit out of Malaysia, all income as well as proceeds from the divestments of these ringgit assets in foreign currency. Also, there is no levy imposed. Myth 2: FEA rules are restrictive on non-residents to manage risk on investments in Malaysia Apart from free capital mobility, the ability to manage risks of investments is equally essential for an investor. In recognizing this need, the current FEA rules freely allows non-residents to hedge ringgit exposures of their investments in ringgit assets with the onshore banks supported by underlying commitment.

These three elements broadly correspond to the current structure of this seminar, and will therefore be treated in one way or another. Let me conclude with two final points on the link between labour market reform and other policy measures. First, labour market reform is also the best case where the complementarities with the exit strategies needed are most obvious. If we take the Spanish case as an example, we can see that unemployment benefits amounted to around 3% of GDP in 2009. And the employment losses associated with this increase in unemployment have also had a significant negative impact on public revenues. Thus, a non-negligible part of the huge increase in the deficit in the past two years is directly or indirectly related to labour market trends. Preventing this increase in unemployment from becoming structural would greatly smooth the fiscal consolidation process. That leads to me to emphasize a second point: it is important that different reforms should be pursued in unison, and in particular that labour market reforms be accompanied by product and services market reforms. In this regard, it is vital to push through structural reforms  BIS Review 65/2010  3  providing for the elimination of obstacles to effective competition and of those that may hamper the reallocation of productive resources. Indeed, only with competitive and flexible product and services markets, would labour market reforms translate into higher activity and employment rather than higher rents.
To increase confidence in the long term, however, we  2  This figure may vary somewhat depending on how it is calculated. 3  See also the article “The EMU and the debt crisis in Europe” in the Monetary Policy Report of February 2012. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  need real changes and the credible implementation of requirements for sustainable public finances. Nevertheless, the situation looks much better now than it did in the autumn. If we look outside Europe, we can see the beginnings of a turnaround in the US economy and China, for example, is still experiencing good growth. Despite this, however, we should probably expect the impetus to the Swedish economy from abroad to be limited over the next few years, mainly due to weak development in Europe. Inflation and growth prospects justify keeping the repo rate low Developments abroad, and above all in Europe, are thus highly important to the Swedish economy. But the development of domestic demand, for example household consumption, was also weak in the second half of 2011. Since then, however, we have received a number of somewhat more positive signals. Share prices have risen since the end of last year and confidence indicators are clearly pointing in the right direction, although from relatively low levels. There is thus potential for an eventual increase in household demand. Growth may gradually increase. The main objective of monetary policy is to keep inflation close to the target.

The banker must therefore have deep regional knowledge and strong networks to deliver solutions for this client. Gaining exposure to Asian markets will therefore put him in a better position to assume greater responsibilities over time. Our ecosystem to develop human capital MAS wants to see more of our finance professionals in Singapore build up these three dimensions of expertise. And there is a strong ecosystem in Singapore to nurture this process. First, MAS and the Institute of Banking and Finance have established a set of industry standards for Asian financial practitioners, through the Financial Industry Competency Standards (FICS). •  This offers finance professionals a clear roadmap for building competencies as they progress in their career, across different job roles and levels. •  Through this framework, we aim to build a strong pipeline of Singaporean talent and leaders in finance, so that our people can avail themselves of the opportunities that a growing financial industry will create. Second, our industry associations are playing an important role in supporting talent development within specific sectors. •  The Life Insurance Association of Singapore, for instance, is working with the Singapore College of Insurance, to develop a talent framework that provides structured training and development opportunities for insurance professionals. •  The General Insurance Association of Singapore is running a global internship programme which seeks to provide undergraduates with hands-on experience at insurance firms overseas. Third, we have in Singapore, fortunately, a strong academic and intellectual climate or platform to deepen specialisation in finance.
A sound capital market, in turn, can better channel savings to different horizons and to more productive projects. In addition, encouraging savings would undoubtedly have a positive effect on trend growth. As for improving productivity, there are certainly no easy solutions to such a task. Proof of this is that several governments have convened commissions, and programs have been undertaken to address this issue. So far, we have not achieved sufficient improvement to reverse its downward trend. All in all, it is a much-needed effort to implement. Elements such as education and job training are significant and far-reaching challenges. So are those related to the availability of resources to expand the capital stock. Here, once again, generating policies that favor savings can play a very important role. It is important to bear in mind that increasing growth is not an end in itself, but the means by which we can generate a greater flow of resources and distribute more to all of us part of this country. Dear senators, we face very important challenges ahead. The economy is going through a period of adjustment that is necessary to bring inflation down to levels compatible with the 3% target over a two-year horizon. The closing of imbalances is inevitable; our task is to bring it about at the lowest possible cost to households and businesses. Macroeconomic policies are doing their job to make this happen, but there is still a long way to go to ensure that the problem has been solved.

16  20  21  22  23  24  Figure 14 a) World: Forecasts contained in latest MP Reports (annual change, percent)  6  Mar.21 Mar.22  Jun.21 Jun.22  Sep.21 Sep.22  b) Actual and projected prices (*) (dollars per pound)  Dec.21 Dec.22  5  5 4 3 2 1  Copper Sep.22 MP Report Dec.22 MP Report  16 4  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  (dollars per barrel)  3.2 3 1.9  2  Oil MP Report Sep.22 MP Report Dec.22  125 100 75 50 25  16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24  (index)  1  160 140 120 100 80  0  22  23 (f)  (f) Forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. FAO index MP Report Sep.22 MP Report Dec.22  16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 (*) Actual price figure is average of each year. Dotted lines denote the 2022-24 forecasts contained in respective MP Report. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg.
Our inflation forecast for mid-2011 is 5.4 percent. We expect non-food inflation to be lower than these figures. Figure 14: Inflation Forecasts* Forecast Range*  Output Gap  Uncertainty Band for 2008  End-Year Inflation Targets  12  Control Horizon  10 8 Percent  6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2011-II  2011-I  2010-  2010-III  2010-II  2010-I  2009-  2009-III  2009-II  2009-I  2008-  2008-III  2008-II  2008-I  -6  Source: CBT * The shaded region indicates the 70 percent confidence interval for the forecast. To sum up, although economic activity in the past quarter have evolved in line with our expectations, the significant increases in oil and processed food prices have led to an upward revision in our forecasts. The main message of the forecast is that preventing the materialization of potential second round effects and ensuring a steady decline in inflation towards the medium term targets, requires the monetary policy to maintain a cautious stance for a while. BIS Review 100/2008  11  Therefore, the path for the policy rates indicated above should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBT. I would like to once more emphasize that any new data or information regarding the inflation outlook may lead to a change in our policy stance. 4.

While efforts can be made to strengthen the legal and supervisory framework, from the financial industry perspective, strong understanding of risks and effective application of risk mitigation, including commensurate application of the AML/CFT measures are critical for the meaningful conduct and practices of financial institutions. This is particularly important in the conduct of CDD and transaction monitoring that will facilitate strong financial intelligence and reporting, to achieve the enforcement objectives. Authorities are committed to continuously enhance the current legal and supervisory framework. At the same time, financial institutions and other reporting institutions must be robust in their current practices and compliance. Technological Development Everyone agrees that technological advancement is moving at a pace far greater than ever before. For the financial industry to maximise the overall benefit of this progress, we must acknowledge both the advantages and the risks of such rapid technological advancement while keeping abreast with the latest innovations. New devices, software, applications and inventions will continue to emerge. The challenge is for us to keep pace and ensure that industry players understand the potential benefits as well as the risk they bear. As the financial industry evolves into digital, it is inevitable that the industry becomes vulnerable to various new threats and risk factors, especially in the domain of financial crimes and terrorism financing. In the effort to mitigate these risks, it is important that we embrace technology and use it to our advantage in order to strengthen our defences against financial crimes and terrorism financing.
For the HKMC, MBS provide an important source of funding and an effective tool for managing the risks of its fast-expanding mortgage portfolio. In a short span of six years, the Corporation’s mortgage pool has increased to over $ billion, which is funded by debts of a similar amount. Momentum is expected to pick up further with the planned acquisition of between $ billion and $ billion of mortgage portfolios before the end of 2004. The proceeds from issuance of MBS help relieve the funding pressure of the mortgage purchase programme. The securitisation process also enables the Corporation to reduce the Prime-HIBOR basis risk and the refinancing risk of its mortgage portfolio. There are in fact two MBS programmes that have been developed by the HKMC. We made a modest start in October 1999 with the launch of the Guaranteed Mortgage-Backed Pass-Through Securitisation Programme. There were a total of eight series of MBS issued under that Programme, with an aggregate amount of about $ billion. The back-to-back structure of the MBS issued allows the participating banks to keep a substantial portion of the cash flow from the mortgage pools, while reducing the credit risk and capital cost through the HKMC’s guarantee of the securities. It also provides them with the option at any time to off-load part or all of an issue to suit their liquidity or trading objectives.

Philip R Lane: Monetary policy, low interest rates and low inflation Dinner remarks by Mr Philip R Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Centre for European Reform, London, 27 February 2020. * * * It is a pleasure to be invited to speak at the Centre for European Reform. Before turning to the longer-term issues that are the primary focus of this speech, I wish to comment on the coronavirus. As emphasised by President Lagarde earlier today, we are closely monitoring the information about the spread of the coronavirus, which is first and foremost a public health emergency, with the most severe impact on the families of those that have died from the virus. In terms of the macro-financial implications, the more quickly is the virus contained, the smaller will be the impact on the world economy and the faster will be the recovery. Conversely, more widespread contagion and a longer interruption in normal economic activity constitute additional downside risks to near-term projections. Accordingly, it is a priority for the ECB to assess on a continuous basis the implications of the evolving situation for economic and financial conditions. In my remarks this evening, I aim to outline some of the factors that are relevant in understanding the role of monetary policy in the current environment of low interest rates and low inflation.1 First, there has been a trend decline in the underlying equilibrium real interest rate since the 1980s.