samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Ladies and Gentlemen This workshop is being held at a time when the global economy has come under serious strain caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US. Appetite for profit and poor credit risk underwriting standards led to a surge in sub-prime mortgages. This brought about a real estate price bubble as demand for residential properties grew. The situation culminated into a liquidity and credit crunch in financial markets. The financial crisis has spread to other countries directly through financial market linkages and indirectly through trade. Recent projections indicate that the global financial crisis will lead to global contraction in economic output with a corresponding reduction in incomes, a rise in unemployment and decline in volumes of trade. Ladies and Gentlemen The current state our financial sector calls for a new approach to the supervision of banks and other financial institutions. Risk Based Supervision (RBS) represents a paradigm shift from the traditional rules based, historical, standardised and point-in-time assessments to a process-oriented, forward looking, continuous and risk profile driven approach to supervision and regulation of the financial sector. RBS is a structured and forward looking process designed to identify risk factors to which individual banks and other financial institutions and the entire financial industry are exposed. This approach enables supervisors to critically assess various risks and the risk management systems of banks and other financial institutions in order to assess the risk profile of these institutions.

However, risks only changed form and address in the financial system, just like the energy continuously transforms in the physical universe. Almost all economists agree that we are heading to a slow, gradual and painful recovery. And as a central banker who has spent almost 30 years in this profession, I can tell you that it is a miracle itself to have so many economists agree on one issue with so much vigor and conviction. The future of the global financial system will be shaped by the lessons we derive from our current experience. The ongoing crisis revealed that preventive measures put in place at the local level by national authorities may not be effective to address global problems. It also underlined the importance of international cooperation and coordination in designing and implementing economic policies. It is clearly understood that the only way to prevent future crises at the global scale is multilateral cooperation. However to establish and sustain multilateral cooperation is not an easy task. As (John Maynard) Keynes once said, “The biggest problem is not to let people accept new ideas, but to let them forget the old ones.“ It is very likely that economic agents will try to hold onto their old habits when the effects of the crisis subdue. Appeals on regulators will pile up for a more lenient implementation of rules, regulations, and policies. Politicians will face pressure from their constituents to give priority to local concerns at the expense of global coordination.
7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  Chart 7: whole economy regular pay growth  Chart 8: measures of domestically generated inflation Per cent  5  Three-month on three-month annualised  4  4  Three months on a year earlier  3  3 2  2 1  1 0  0 Unit labour cost growth  -1  GDP deflator  -2 10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  -1  -2  Core services CPI  18 2013  2014  2015  2016  -3 2018  2017  Notes: dotted lines show 1997-2007 average for each measure. There is no clean measure of domestically generated inflation, the chart shows a subset of the range of measures that the MPC considers as a guide to domestically generated inflation. We have of course seen false dawns before. Last November, with those very much in mind, I voted against a rate rise. For me, structural uncertainties about the economy warranted a stodgy approach. In the face of these types of uncertainty I was prepared to trade off moving more slowly in order to let evidence accumulate, with a little more resistance in our reaction function, rather than moving more in line with the forecast. I will await our August forecast of course for the latest assessment of the evolution of domestic inflation pressures and of the first quarter of the year.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam: Taking charge of your financial wellbeing Opening address by Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the MoneySENSE 10th Anniversary Roadshow, Singapore, 19 October 2013. *  *  *  Good afternoon Members of the Financial Education Steering Committee, and everyone who has come to Toa Payoh hub for one reason or another. Please enjoy the shows and exhibitions which we have planned, that are all aimed at helping Singaporeans to manage their money better. 2. We all know that managing money is important, regardless of your income level. You may be low, middle or high income, but managing your money is very important for your quality of life. Research supports this, but we all know from our own family members, friends, and colleagues at work – that it is not just how much money we make but how we manage, spend or share our money that determines how satisfied we are. Financial Literacy Survey 3. MoneySENSE commissioned a Financial Literacy Survey earlier this year, which shows that Singaporeans are generally quite careful with their finances.1 80% of Singaporeans save some money each month and 86% of people do not like taking on debt. Many people take on loans because of housing, but they don’t like to borrow more than they can comfortably service with their income. 4. But there are some people who over-spend and over-borrow, which we find in every society, and Singapore as well.
Norman T L Chan: Focus in Hong Kong on treating customers fairly Speech by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Treat Customers Fairly Charter Launching Ceremony, Hong Kong, 28 October 2013. *  *  *  Welcome to the Treat Customers Fairly Charter Launching Ceremony. I am pleased that representatives from 22 retail banks in Hong Kong gathered here today to sign the Charter, pledging to implement the five high-level principles set out therein. 2. A customer-based, customer-oriented corporate culture is what we always applaud and hope for. This is true regardless of industry. However, not every industry or company is able to achieve this, particularly when they are under the pressure of increasing market competition and the need for profit-maximisation, it is not uncommon for some companies to adopt sales and marketing practices that may undermine consumers’ interests. It has therefore led to the development of different consumer protection mechanisms in modern societies to address such issues, for instance, Hong Kong has established the Consumer Council in this context. Nevertheless, the international community is increasingly concerned about the interests of financial consumers in recent years. In late 2011, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has announced a set of high-level principles for protection of financial consumers. It is now in the process of developing effective approaches for implementing the principles with a view to promoting the principles to G20 members. 3.

Some people wonder why don’t we simply make the Charter part of the HKMA’s regulatory requirements for banks given the importance of fair customer treatment? My reply to this is that: banks have to deal with tens of thousands of customers every day to provide a great variety of services and conduct countless transactions. While imposition of regulatory rules would bring about some effects, no external rules could possibly be all-pervasive, more difficult still about transforming the corporate culture or long-standing values in workplace. Fair treatment of customers ought to be firmly embedded in the corporate culture of banks that all personnel – from board of directors, chief executives, senior management, to frontline employees – will accept, defend and uphold treating their customers fairly as a guiding principle. Banks’ incentive mechanism must also promote and support this culture in every aspect of the banks’ operations. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  6. Bank customers, as consumers of various types of bank products and services, should receive appropriate protection. While banks should treat their customers fairly, the latter should also be responsible and smart. The most basic requirement is that customers should try their best to understand the products and services provided by banks, including credit cards, personal loans, home mortgages and wealth management products, their relevant risks, costs and expenses, and whether the products and services are suitable for them.
1 / Why: incorporating digital innovations is an imperative I shall sum up some very strong trends as a “triangle of risks”:  First, on retail payments, over the last 18 months, cash has accelerated its decline while the share of dematerialised payments has increased twice as fast as before the crisis, from 51 % in 2019 to 70 % in the first half of 2021. There is also a strong shift towards the tokenisation of financial assets. This dual trend could lead to the marginalisation of the use of central bank money, be it in the form of banknotes or in settlement systems. We, as a central bank shall never abandon cash; but this commitment cannot be our sole response to technological change. Second, the emergence of BigTechs and new settlement assets  (crypto-assets  and  stablecoins)  could threaten  our  monetary  sovereignty and our mandate to safeguard financial stability. Third and final factor, the progress made by extra-European CBDCs and notably by the digital  yuan, already accessible in the major Chinese cities. The risk is clearly that Europe will lose momentum not just in its drive to strengthen the international role of the euro, but even in preserving it. The challenge here is also a geopolitical concern. 2/ How: reasserting the anchoring role of central bank money thanks to a holistic approach Faced with these challenges, we want to be proactive and move forward in partnership with commercial banks.

Mr. Singer said that while the central bank remains worried about the possibility of another “hiccup” in the eurozone, he is less concerned than he was before the ECB first indicated in May that it was preparing to take action. “The outcome was more positive than I would have expected five months ago, and things look less gloomy than they appeared before they (ECB policy makers) found some consensus,” he said. The eurozone’s persistent economic weakness has been the main concern for policy makers gathered here over recent days. Those concerns were heightened by a run of very weak data from Germany that indicated the economy may have contracted for a second straight quarter in the three months to September. Mr. Singer believes those figures from August that recorded large falls in industrial production, manufacturing orders and exports are not reflective of the underlying state of the German economy, but instead the fact that there was a larger number of holidays than usual taken during that month. He said the Czech economy, which has a similar focus on industry rather than services, had experienced similar volatility in output over the summer months. “I would be unpleasantly surprised if the weakness in Germany continues,” he said. With its benchmark interest rate already at 0.05%, the Czech central bank last November pledged to maintain the koruna’s exchange rate at above 27 to the euro, effectively setting the firmest acceptable level for the currency.
Overall, in recent weeks, market expectations have raised the projections of short-term inflation. In addition, in the short term, inflation is affected by supply shocks that can have significant effects. Developments in the international oil market do not help the outlook for domestic inflation. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which, among other consequences, led to an embargo on Iranian exports, and a harsh winter in the Northern Hemisphere have made the actual and expected oil price to escalate. The Brent price has risen more than 15% during the current year, while projections taken from futures contracts have also risen and point to an average price for oil of near $ per barrel during 2012. The persistence of a high price always raises worldwide concern because of its implications on inflation and growth. Concerns regarding inflation deal with the direct impact of fuel and energy inflation, and also with the secondary effects that they cause, which could be accentuated in an environment with a narrow output gap. Final thoughts Before I end my presentation, I would like to share some thoughts on monetary policy. As mentioned at the beginning of this presentation, our task as economic policymakers is made more difficult in a more uncertain environment. We make our best decisions based on whatever information is available at the moment. Currently, decision making relies on certain elements that point to opposite directions. On one hand, the international scenario is very complex, even though when compared to a few months back, the tensions seem somewhat smaller.

The MPR was not changed during the second half of 2011. Our December Monetary Policy Report highlighted the wide range of existing risks, which originated mostly in the directions that the Eurozone situation could take. The possibility of a debt event occurring in a systemic sized economy or of a disruptive breakdown of the euro were among the worst risk scenarios envisaged although we also considered the possibility of the Eurozone authorities agreeing on a set of measures and reforms that would restore market confidence. Considering the deleveraging process that households and governments of developed countries would need to go through, these economies would continue to grow at low rates for a long time, regardless of the way that the Eurozone situation was settled. All in all, the international baseline scenario was more negative than previously considered, and would impact Chile’s growth and inflation rates. The working hypothesis of that Report was that there would be MPR cuts in the short term, coinciding with the results of several expectations surveys. The MPR was finally lowered at the monetary policy meeting of January 2012. Current dilemmas Tensions in financial markets stemming from the Eurozone crisis have recently eased. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) measures to supply long-term financing to banks, the political agreements to define an institutional framework aimed at maintaining fiscal discipline in the medium term, and the announcement of a new rescue package for Greece, have all contributed to this.
This is what creates the potential for the ‘second round effects’ that seek to avoid the real cost of higher energy prices to sustain above target inflation even as the original impulse to headline inflation from the direct effect of higher energy prices on household utility bills recedes. [24] In other words, the level of energy prices is likely to have implications for how much intrinsic inflation persistence exists in the aftermath of an energy price shock. If a rise in energy prices in seen as permanent, it is more likely to trigger greater intrinsic inflation persistence. And the greater the proportion of any energy price rise that is seen as being lasting rather than temporary, the greater the intrinsic inflation persistence that is likely to follow. Page 9  Making assessments of this type is particularly important at present. Headline inflation is set to fall sharply in the coming months, both because the big contributions from energy price rises last year will drop out of the annual calculation and because wholesale gas prices have reverted of late. But the level of energy prices remains well above pre-pandemic levels, so the scope for some sustained momentum in inflation stemming from greater intrinsic inflation persistence exists.

The establishment of the credit bureau is likely to increase credit business, lead to more competitive pricing of credit facilities and lower credit loan defaults and delinquency rates. To address the concerns over the treatment of credit data, MAS would follow two broad principles. 1  Refers to the submission of customer’s payment histories on their credit facilities. Positive data refers to timely payment (i.e. a good customer) and negative data refers to overdue payments. 2  BIS Review 7/2002  First, it is important that individuals have access to their own credit files and to have any inaccurate information corrected. Any dispute resolution process should be timely and effective, and should also be covered in the Consumer Banking Code that ABS is currently working on. Second, it is also important that individual privacy is respected and customer data are not misused for purposes other than what they were originally intended for. A good starting point is the principle of reciprocity on data usage, which all participating members to the bureau will need to adhere to. High standards of confidentiality is also expected of both the bureau operators and participating members. The ABS will continue to work with MAS to ensure that these principles are observed. The launch of the consumer credit bureau will mark the beginning of a new risk management process in Singapore. It will further bolster the integrity and transparency of Singapore’s financial sector.
In assessing the exchange rate it is important to point out that in real terms the exchange rate is not much higher at present than its average over the past ten years. Thus there is no possible way to claim that the current exchange rate is blatantly out of step with what is appropriate for the economy or is far from the real equilibrium exchange rate. It has also been claimed that there is a significant risk of deflation in Iceland. The Central Bank considers the likelihood of this to be negligible. In fact, the talk of deflation can largely be expected to reflect international discussion of the same issue, with claims from various quarters that there is a risk of deflation in Germany and the USA in the same way that has happened in Japan. Nothing suggests that deflation is looming in Iceland – wage costs have risen, growth in money supply is robust, inflation expectations in the market are around 2% or above, and one of the largest construction programmes in Icelandic history is on the horizon. It may be added that, up until now, Iceland has never had any problems in kindling inflation. In light of all the above, the Central Bank does not believe that there are grounds for a large cut in interest rates in order to bring down the exchange rate of the króna or dispel the risk of deflation, which is virtually nil anyway. Such action would probably pave the way for subsequent overheating of the economy and inflation.

Then, since these imperfections shape the responsibilities and interventions of the regulatory and oversight authorities including central banks I shall deal with the nature of oversight. Finally I shall turn to a number of contemporary challenges that regulatory and oversight authorities face in the field of securities clearing and settlement systems. 1. The provision of clearing and settlement services by the financial system and its contribution to welfare  What is the basic role of a financial system? In my context a financial system can be understood as a set of instruments, of markets and of institutions. Following Merton and Bodie (1995) the primary role of the financial system is “to facilitate the allocation and deployment of economic resources, both across borders and time, in an uncertain environment”. In other words a financial system can be understood as the dynamic response of institutions and processes to changing imperfections such as information and transaction costs. From a practical point of view a financial system is meant to provide for the allocation of economic resources to productive investment opportunities, the trading of risks, the collecting and processing of information. Prominently this also includes the provision of clearing and settlement services. Let me concentrate on the latter, i.e. on the provision of clearing and settlement services. There is no doubt that Central Securities Depositories (CSDs), International Central Securities Depositories (ICSDs) and Central Counterparties (CCPs) are among the crucial building blocks of any wellorganised financial system.
I wish you continued success as we build together on our strong foundations. With this, I wish all participants at this conference a fruitful exchange of ideas and discussion. BIS Review 38/2007  3

While it is clear we have come a long way since 2008, we can’t just settle for making a promise that no bank will be ‘too big to fail’: as Resolution Authority the Bank must be able to deliver on that commitment. Fundamental to that delivery, the UK now has the requisite statutory tools, and powers to underpin a credible bank resolution framework. These are set out transparently in the Banking Act 2009 and there are  6  Also known as the Purple Book, and subsequently updated in 2017. As set out in the December 2019 Financial Stability Report. 8 The December 2020 Financial Stability Report sets out the FPC’s latest assessment. 7  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  4  safeguards in place so that these powers can only be used in the right circumstances. These features allow market participants to have confidence in the integrity and predictability of our decision-making, which is supported by the UK’s strong and effective institutions. These powers also form an important complement to supervisory and prudential tools; that these are embedded within the UK legal framework ensures they function as a credible and independent backstop for banks at risk of failure. Flexibility and proportionality in implementation  While a credible and transparent policy regime is necessary it requires flexibility and proportionality in development and implementation to ensure overall effectiveness of the regime.