samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If we look to the meetings organised with some of the regional banking authorities, the initiative on regional cooperation has been welcomed, but I also believe that time has come to carry out concrete measures towards this cooperation. Judging from my personal experience, not as governor but as a banker, I hold the opinion that it would be appropriate to establish a club of regional central banks. The regular meetings of this club would certainly enable the exchange of experiences and the further strengthening of our cooperation. 2/2

There's no use in complaining about "populism", which incidentally is a label that is too easily used, if we can't provide the "people" with the ability to ask the right questions and then evaluate the answers. France has therefore made a firm commitment to implement a strategy for financial education based on the principles set out by the OECD and endorsed by the G20 leaders. Work on the strategy began in 2013 and on 20 December of last year, the Minister of the Economy called the first meeting of the National Committee for Financial Education. This Committee brings together relevant administrations and institutions, consumer associations and finance sector professionals, and gives the political impetus at the very highest level. The Minister also reaffirmed the role entrusted to the Banque de France of conducting the national strategy. Before continuing with a presentation of our first collective achievements, I would like to focus on the role of the Banque de France. ***  1. The Banque de France, the conductor of the national strategy [slide 4] The Banque de France has concrete, everyday experience of our fellow citizens' needs in terms of information and explanations through its three core tasks of monetary strategy, financial stability and services to the economy. For example, as part of the over-indebtedness procedure managed by the Banque de France, each year we provide solutions to more than 200,000 households experiencing financial difficulties.
Just as the cogs and wheels of a watch all mesh together, the changes unfolding in specific sectors are not occurring in isolation; they are interrelated, as the slide shows. What is driving these fundamental changes? The initial impulse for transformation often comes from new technical possibilities such as smartphones and tablets, Big Data applications or artificial intelligence. These technologies are opening up new payment services for end clients (e.g. Twint) and new business models for companies. The mantra here is invariably faster, easier, cheaper. At the same time, technology is lowering barriers to entry for new players in the market for payment services, such as fintech companies. And finally, the payments infrastructure and regulatory framework play an important role, in terms of both securing the payment system and ensuring fair competition – which in turn should permit further innovation in the future. These changes are presenting major challenges for all stakeholders in the payments ecosystem (cf. slide 3). I would like to discuss four of these in greater detail. First, the central role of the client interface; second, the disaggregation (or ‘unbundling’) of value chains; third, digital ledger technology (DLT); and fourth, cyber risks. The first challenge concerns client contact and client data. For established providers of cashless payment services, such as the banks, the payment interface has long been an important client touchpoint. In the digital age, non-banks, such as large internet platforms and online retailers, can leverage payment data to target their clients with personalised products.

Results of such studies can help in the improvement of financial education initiatives, and serve as a powerful tool to instil commitment of consumers. Take the lead from FOMCA, which has the experience and expertise to embark on this approach. In conclusion, I have shared with you our vision and aspiration for financial well-being of the nation. To realise the vision and aspiration, we need to elevate the financial literacy of Malaysians through a national strategy for financial literacy which will chart our journey in realising the financial well-being of Malaysians. However, having a national strategy is only meaningful if it delivers what it is designed to achieve. This journey will indeed take time, but it is worthwhile, as ‘big journeys always begin in small steps’. Let this conference be the platform for us to share our thoughts and discuss our ideas to realise this vision. Thus, let me conclude by wishing you a fruitful session and an engaging conference ahead. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
We as central bankers are concerned here with avoiding overburdening monetary policy by the next recession, but it is of course the responsibility of politicians to act. 1/ The first cliché that emerges when we talk about reforming the euro area is the opposition between vision – be it French or otherwise – and pragmatism – seen as a northern European virtue. We must be practical, and take real needs and particularly those of businesses and entrepreneurs as our starting point. At the same time, we need a political ambition if we are to act – call it a “vision” if you wish. Today, the key to growth in the euro area is investment and innovation. But to innovate, in digital technology or in the energy transition for example, companies need to be able to take more risks, which requires more equity financing over the 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  long term, rather than debt financing. The euro area is seriously lagging behind in this respect: equity capital amounted to only 73% of GDP in the third quarter of 2017, compared to 123% in the United States. This brings me to my first solution for strengthening our Economic Union: a European-level "Financing Union for Investment and Innovation", which would better channel the euro area’s EUR 350 billion savings surplus into equity financing for innovation, in digital or renewable energy technologies.

At the same time, supervisors will benefit from easier exchange of information. And the framework offers the flexibility to incorporate future modifications with lower costs. Overall, these positive effects should lead to higher quality in the information flows generated. I should say at this point that neither of these projects has been easy. If you consider that the European Union is currently made up of 25 countries, you can well imagine that the starting situation was complex, with each country requiring its banks to submit different information. In fact, the differences were not limited to the definitions used by each Member State, but also related to the reporting systems, and the technologies and formats used. But I would argue that it has been a very worthwhile initiative, and one that will reap benefits for years to come. 3  Increased reliance on business information  Let me turn now to the third element that I believe is important for success. I believe that regulators should put increased reliance on information generated and used by institutions within their own business. Let me set the context for this remark. I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that, over recent years, the Basel II initiative has driven a paradigm shift in regulatory attitudes. Regulation used to be something that was rather imposed on institutions “to be complied with”, and seen by them as completely separate from their own internal business processes, and therefore an additional cost.
By resizing the notes, the Bank of Sierra Leone has also addressed the problem of criminal bleaching of genuine notes and their redenomination to higher values. Durability has also been enhanced in the form of a post-print vanish, to provide a defense against the rigours of Sierra Leone’s tropical climate, heavy usage in a cash-dependent society, and poor handling by the public. In this regard, the Bank of Sierra Leone has expressed concern over the manner in which the nation’s currency is handled and we have cautioned the public that although the new series of notes have been treated with vanish to enhance their durability, it is the responsibility of the Public to observe “proper handling” to increase their circulation life. Furthermore, it is the nation’s civic responsibility to know their bank notes and to handle them properly. During the introduction of the notes, we allowed a 12-month transition period during which the old and the new notes co-circulated. The Bank will shortly advise the public as regards the deadline for the co-circulation of these notes. In the meantime, I am pleased to inform you that over 93% of the old notes have already been withdrawn and Sierra Leoneans now have notes they can be proud of.

William C Dudley: “US Economy in a Snapshot” Opening remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Economic Press Briefing on the US Economy in a Snapshot, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 19 May 2016. *  *  *  Jonathan McCarthy, Paolo Pesenti, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy assisted in preparing these remarks. Welcome to our Economic Press Briefing. Today we are going to introduce you to a data product that we have been making available to the public, U.S. Economy in a Snapshot. My role is to put this product in the broader context of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) communication strategy about the economy and policy. My colleague Robert Rich will then walk you through the structure of the product and discuss excerpts from the May release. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. Conventional U.S. monetary policy is conducted by targeting the level of the federal funds rate—an overnight interest rate on bank reserves. Few participants in our economy have any direct interaction with this interest rate. How, then, is controlling this interest rate such an important part of setting monetary policy and steering an 18 trillion dollar economy toward the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability? This is the remarkable aspect of monetary policy.
This construction with companies that have invested in assets that are difficult to value and have a long duration and which have financed themselves in the short-term money market with a guarantee from the banks is a powder keg – and a powder keg where the powder has been piled up more quickly and to a greater extent than both the market and the authorities have been aware. The igniting spark came from the US mortgage market, but it could have come from other areas. 2  BIS Review 136/2007  Bad credits in the US mortgage market is the igniting spark In the United States the financial innovations have gone hand in hand with a rapid increase in loan volumes. As is the case in most of the world, it is mainly households’ mortgages that have increased. What distinguishes the United States in this respect is that a not insignificant portion of the mortgages have been taken by households with poor credit ratings. 1 These loans are called subprime loans. Although the subprime loans constitute a minority of the total mortgages, there are nevertheless significant sums involved. 2 It is worth pointing out here that of course it is not always wrong to grant loans for housing merely because the lenders cannot manage the banks’ normal, fairly tough criteria. But it is always necessary to carry out a proper credit assessment. And the lender should be paid for the higher risk through a correspondingly higher interest rate. None of this happened in the United States.

As R* has fallen, monetary policy has moved with it. This is an important point. The low level of interest rates over the past few decades reflects deep underlying factors on the supply side of the economy. As these underlying factors – trends in technology and demographics – only move slowly, it is not unreasonable to expect that R* will remain low. This means that, even as we now respond to rising inflation by raising Bank Rate, interest rates will not necessarily have to return fully to, and remain around, the higher levels they once had. But let me add a caveat: “It’s important to note that forecasting the future path of R* is challenging and subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. Economic developments and policy decisions can have unpredictable and complex effects on the economy, and it is difficult to predict their outcomes with complete accuracy.” This was not said or written by an economist of the human sort. This is a caveat added by ChatGPT. The ‘artificial intelligence’ underlying it reminds us that technology sometimes progresses in leaps, which can lead to a sudden emergence of productive investment opportunities across the global economy. New rounds of technological revolution are amongst the factors that could shift up Global R*. Monetary policy would have to move with it. So even if monetary policy is neutral in the long run, long-run supply does affect monetary policy by anchoring the level for interest rates.
The uncertainty there is evident, for example, in the banks’ difficulties with borrowing at longer maturities and in investors’ preference for safe government paper over what they perceive as more risky securities such as mortgage bonds. Even the short-term interest rate on the interbank market has risen sharply as a result of mutual distrust between banks, causing them to avoid lending to each other. As a result, the banks’ borrowing costs rise, access to loans decreases, and companies and households pay more for loans. At times, moreover, trading on certain segments of the fixedincome market has ceased completely. When such disruptions occur, the Riksbank has considered that special measures are required to restore the functioning of the markets so that the supply of credit is not jeopardised and the financial markets, and therefore monetary policy, can work more normally. The first sign: a shortage of treasury bills … The very first, very concrete sign of the financial crisis in Sweden was an acute shortage of treasury bills. The high demand for safe investments, especially in the United States, caused interest rates on American treasury bills to fall almost to zero. Even foreign investors then turned to European countries, including Sweden, to get treasury bills that gave a higher yield. The Swedish National Debt Office decided to implement additional issues of treasury bills. The funds from these extra issues are being used for reversed repo transactions with mortgage bonds (purchase of mortgage bonds with agreements to resell them within a specific period of time).

Page 25 of 27  Table 3 Structural parameters Long-term copper price  Long-term oil price (dollars per barrel)  (dollars per pound)  Trend non-mining GDP next 10 years  Nominal neutral MPR (percent)  Technical mínimum MPR (percent)  (annual change, percent)  Dec-15/Mar-21  Dec-15/Mar-21  Jun-19/Mar-21  Jun-19/Mar-21  Jul-09/Mar-21  2.7  70  3.25-3.75  3.75-4.25  0.5  June 2021  June 2021  June 2021  June 2021  June 2021  3.3  60  2.4-3.4  3.25-3.75  0.5  Source: Central Bank of Chile. ***  Page 26 of 27
For this, the use of internet banking, e-money, remittance platform and other use of internet technologies for money laundering activities are on the rise. New  2  BIS Review 46/2009  technologies are also being used to perpetrate crimes such as dealing in illegal drugs over the internet and e-crimes, including phishing and internet auction frauds; 3. There are also instances on the use of dummies, or an international network of shell companies as well as other intermediaries to handle the transactions; and  4. The use of electronic fund transfers as one of the preferred methods for the layering of criminal proceeds once they enter the legitimate financial system. There are cases where these proceeds are smuggled out of one country, deposited in another country or other countries, and then wired back to the country of origin. III. Strategic focus to strengthen the national AML/CFT regime  As the challenges to address the emerging trends intensify, it becomes imperative that the overarching objective upon which an AML/CFT regime has been built remains intact and achievable. The key is to sustain the robustness of the AML/CFT regime to effectively deter and detect money laundering and terrorism financing offences. Thus the third and the last theme of my speech is on Malaysia's strategic focus in strengthening the national AML/CFT regime. Against this backdrop, five key areas has been identified. First is to strengthen collaboration and cooperation among key stakeholders. Foremost is to enhance the public-private sector partnership as synchronised actions deliver better result.

Today's conference provides a platform to widen the knowledge and understanding on the critical issues confronting the effective implementation of the AML/CFT regime. Please do take advantage of and benefit from this opportunity. On this note, I wish you a productive and successful conference. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 46/2009
Jan F Qvigstad: Comments on Lars E O Svensson's lecture "Policy expectations and policy evaluations – the role of transparency and communication" Speech by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the conference "Ten Years of Riksbank Independence", Stockholm, 11 September 2009. *  *  *  Introduction It was a great pleasure to accept the invitation to discuss professor and fellow central bank deputy governor Lars Svensson’s lecture in connection with the tenth anniversary of Riksbank independence. In his lecture, Lars Svensson discussed communication, credibility and monetary policy evaluation. He looks at general issues for central banks seeking to influence key rate expectations, using the Riksbank as an example. 1 I will not venture to remark on the Riksbank’s assessments but will offer my comments on the same issues in the light of Norges Bank’s experience of interest rate forecasts. There are a number of similarities between the communication strategies of the Riksbank and Norges Bank. And underlying these strategies is a model developed by, among others, Lars Svensson. In his lecture today, he described how to arrive at an interest rate path that “looks good”. He showed, as he has on many previous occasions, that this can be formalised by finding the interest rate path that minimises a given loss function. When does the interest rate “look good”? Svensson raises the issue of whether monetary policy is well balanced, not only ex-post but also ex-ante.

To describe monetary policy in terms of a constant rule derived from a known model of the economy is to ignore this process of learning. So how should central banks behave in the light of their ignorance? Two approaches have been suggested. Interestingly, at one end of the spectrum, both Milton Friedman and Robert Lucas argued that policy should be based on a simple rule precisely because of our ignorance. Central banks, in their view, should have limited ambitions and aim simply at steady growth of the money supply – the so-called k% rule under which the money stock rises at a fixed rate, k%, each year. As Friedman (1968) put it, “Steady monetary growth would provide a monetary climate favourable to the operation of those basic forces …… that are the true springs of economic growth. That is the most that we can ask of monetary policy at our present state of knowledge”.9 The principle of adopting a strategy that takes into account limits to our knowledge is a sound one. But advocates of a rigid k% rule argue that we should ignore all other sources of information (estimates of the output gap, for example) and allow any shocks to the velocity of money to feed through to activity or the price level. In practice, experience in both Europe and the US has shown that velocity shocks can be large and few economists now advocate the use of k% rules. So committing to a wholly inflexible rule is likely to be neither desirable nor credible.
Together these approaches provide firms and us with the tools to do two things: to add up overall capital requirements; and as diagnostic tools to allow the probing and analysis of strengths and weaknesses of firms’ positions. I cannot emphasise enough that good judgemental supervision which is forward-looking employs diagnostic tools. None of these tools will provide the “right” answer, they are not tablets of stone. They enable assessment and challenge, by managements, boards and supervisors. The idea that we could rely on one of these tools alone, which you can read in some books, is, let me be blunt, naïve. Good supervision looks at things from different angles in order to build up pictures. In the same vein, I do not agree with those who say that we should disallow firms’ internal models. That amounts to saying we are not interested in how firms’ manage their own risks and that somehow we have better models to use. But, we don’t rely exclusively on firms’ models, and we challenge them hard; and we throw them out when we don’t like them, and we have done that. Good prudential supervisors are bold enough to do that. The lesson is look at models, but do it properly, and to do that is not a simple job.

We take all of our responsibilities very seriously, as of course we should. Across the board, there have been developments over the last year that give me a sense of cautious satisfaction – by the way, that is at the happier end of the spectrum of emotions for a central banker Seriously, I am afraid that we must not get carried away here. We are in many ways in the second phase of the financial crisis. The first phase was a prudential one, while the second phase has revealed past misconduct. Fixing the financial system requires more than just fixing capital and liquidity standards. Standards of governance, conduct and the right incentives structures are all extremely important. After commenting on two material development this year I want to use the rest of my time to set out four areas where we are either taking action, or watching very carefully to determine whether action may be required. Let me start by describing two developments which point to some cautious satisfaction. First, the capital position of UK banks has strengthened. Market conditions have supported actions to raise capital and reduce non-core assets, and banks have taken advantage of those conditions. The targets that were set as a consequence of the FPC and PRA exercise of nearly two years ago have been met ahead of schedule. The banking system is now more able to support lending and the growth of the economy.
Figure 4 Immigration  Chile's population (*)  (thousands of persons)  (millions of persons)  240  240  20.5  20.5  200  200  20.0  160  160  19.5  120  120  19.0  80  80  18.5  18.5  40  40  18.0  18.0  0  0  17.5  2017  19.5 2002  19.0  17.5 15  92 96 00 04 08 12 16  20.0  17  19  21  23  25  (*) Population estimates and forecasts using each Census. For 2002 the updated figures published in 2014 are used. Source: National Statistics Institute (INE). 10  Figure 5 Annual GDP growth  Domestic demand  (contribution, percentage points)  (real annual change, percent)  6  6  16  16 Durable consumption  Total Nonmining  3  3  8 Habitual  8  consumption  0  0  0  0 FBCF  Mining -3  -3 14  15  16  17  -8  18  -8 14  15  16  17  18  Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Figure 10 Growth forecasts (annual change, percent)  3.2  3.2  United States  2.9  2.9  2.6  2.6  2.3  2.3  2.0  2.0  1.7  1.7  1.4  2.6  1.4 15  16  6.8  17  18  2.6  Eurozone  2.3  2.3  2.0  2.0  1.7  1.7  1.4  19  1.4 15  16  17  18  19  6.8  4.2  6.6  6.6  4.0  4.0  6.4  6.4  3.8  3.8  6.2  6.2  3.6  3.6  6.0  6.0  3.4  3.4  5.8  3.2  3.2  China  5.8  15  16  17  18  19  15  Source: IMF. 13  4.2  World at PPP  16  17  18  19  Figure 11 Terms of trade (index, 2013=100)  110  110 Dec.18 Report  105  105  100  100 Mar.19 Report  95  95  90  90  85  85 13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  Source: Central Bank of Chile.