samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In order to maintain the competitiveness of their exports, the Asian countries intervene on the FX market, thus preventing appreciation of their currencies. They invest the purchased dollars in American bonds, thus financing the US current account deficit. Another hypothesis that explains the mechanism of the occurrence of global imbalances has been formed by the present Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke 9 . His major concept is that the large US current account deficit cannot be explained solely by internal factors. In the opinion of the present Fed chairman, external factors, which he has defined as a global savings glut, have played the key role. The hypothesis says that a substantial surplus of savings over investments in the Asian countries, together with the structurally high savings in Germany and Japan, have resulted in a global savings glut that has caused a boom on the US stock exchanges and an increase in the property prices, which has in turn resulted in a drop in household savings in the USA. The Bretton Woods 2 and the global savings glut hypotheses are challenged by the IMF, which claims that the source of the current account surpluses is the excessively low level of investments in the Asian countries - except for China.

There are still regulation barriers to business activity in Europe, which make it impossible to move freely across country borders 30 . New information transfer technologies create a possibility of central processing of information, which is why limiting of the capability to take advantage of this process results in lower economies of scale. Moreover, the development of road transport still faces regulatory barriers. Finally, cultural differences, which are a natural barrier in business activity, should be mentioned. While indicating the vital role of services in building a competitive edge of the American economy, we should also relate to EU solutions in the form of the so-called Services Directive, which has been recently adopted by the European Parliament. The basic objective of the directive, in its version proposed by the European Commission, is to create a single market for services covering the whole of the European Union and to abolish all the barriers that prevent or significantly hinder rendering services by entrepreneurs of a given country in other EU countries. However, the amendments introduced by the Parliament, which deleted the so-called “country of origin” clause, in principle allow maintaining the existing barriers, which will result in a more difficult and hampered process of increasing the effectiveness of the European companies, including their capability of taking advantage of offshoring. This is why, in the era of globalisation, all initiatives that increase the region’s investment attractiveness play a vital role.
Payments: Diversity Matters Speech given by Victoria Cleland, Executive Director, Banking, Payments and Innovation  European Women Payments Network Annual Conference, Amsterdam 5 June 2019  I would like to thank Samantha Leighton, Richard Lewis and Sara Ward for their help in preparing this speech. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  I am delighted to be speaking today at the European Women Payments Network (EWPN) Annual Conference. Amsterdam, as home to what is reputedly the world’s oldest stock exchange, founded in 16021, is an apt location to discuss payments. While people’s fundamental requirements when exchanging value probably have not changed very much since then, the choice of how people make payments, and the technology which facilitates this, certainly has. Such changes can only come about through listening to what is needed and harnessing innovation. How much more quickly would these changes have come about if EWPN had been around a few centuries ago? EWPN’s focus is ‘making diversity matter in fintech’, by building a community for women and by championing a more diverse and inclusive payments industry for all. In keeping with this, I want to set out how, through the lens of our work in payments, we are embracing the changes that fintech can bring and why diversity matters to the Bank of England. The Bank’s mission is to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability.

We are also seeking to develop a renewed service that will be message network agnostic: capable of sending and receiving payment messages from multiple sources and interfacing with multiple messaging networks without compromising on levels of security or proof. And we will continue to support the resilience of the renewed RTGS by diversifying operations across two sites with a third stand-by settlement platform which is geographically remote. As I stressed at the start, the Bank needs to reflect the diversity of the people it serves and so increasing the diversity of the Bank’s workforce is at the top of our agenda. We have set ourselves stretching but 12  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/payments/rtgs-renewal-proof-of-concept.pdf 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6  achievable targets in respect of increasing the representation of women and BAME colleagues at all levels of the business.13 And we have implemented a wide range of initiatives designed to improve diversity in our recruitment, development and retention of talent across a range of protected characteristics. As a member of the Bank’s senior leadership team, I have personal accountability for delivering a step change in the Bank’s diversity. This is crucial in my own Directorate but also for the Bank as a whole.
There is no doubt that this global crisis will affect Chile, and it will do so through various channels. Firstly, regarding the effects from abroad, it will cause a considerable drop in trade flows. This year, the world economy is projected to suffer a recession, combining drops in activity in the developed world with weak expansion in China. In this scenario, it is worth mentioning a contraction in the United States, where 2  preliminary labor market figures point to a major impact on the economy. In the Eurozone, the already low dynamism of its main economies (i.e. Germany, France, and Italy) and an already complex banking system situation, pose major challenges for stimulus policies. China will grow this year by 3%, its lowest since 1990, with important repercussions in the rest of the world, both because of its integration in the value chains and because of its weight in the trade of some countries, including Chile. The impact on trade is compounded by the negative impact on income as a result of falling commodity prices (Figure 4). Especially relevant for Chile is the drop in the copper price, which approached USD 2 per pound during March, and the forecast for this year is an average of USD 2.15 per pound. This negative effect will be largely offset by the lower oil price, which dropped to levels between USD 20 to 30 per barrel in March. Hence, the terms of trade deterioration should be less than 1% in 2020.

22 I am sure that the forum today will be a good occasion to exchange views and to gather new insights. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
The entire Executive Board and most of the members of the Monetary Policy Department take part in this meeting. In addition, a number of advisers to the Executive Board and employees of the Financial Stability Department usually take part. A summary of the new information and the current status of the economy in Sweden and abroad is presented at the meeting. We also run through the alternative scenarios ordered at the risk meeting a few weeks earlier and discuss whether they really capture the risks that we Executive Board members envisage. We also have the opportunity at this meeting to request more information on various issues considered important to the coming decision. The meeting usually takes around three hours. Monetary Policy Department establishes its forecasts At approximately the same time as the meeting with the Executive Board, the Monetary Policy Department establishes its view of macroeconomic developments over the coming three years. In a preliminary stage it focuses on around ten key variables such as inflation, interest rates, GDP, number of hours worked, exchange rates and resource utilisation. The forecasts are produced on the basis of the exogenous conditions, the international forecasts, the model forecasts for the Swedish economy conditional on the current situation and assessments. The forecast for the interest rate path produced by the Monetary Policy Department is meant to reflect the Executive Board’s normal, historical behaviour. It is not  6  BIS Review 77/2008  any form of recommendation from the Department.

Irma Rosenberg: The monetary policy decision-making process Speech by Ms Irma Rosenberg, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Riksbanken, Stockholm, 13 June 2008. *  *  *  The Riksbank is considered to be one of the most open central banks in the world. 1 Openness has also been one of the basic principles in shaping our activities. If an independent central bank is to be perceived as credible it must be possible for outsiders to understand its decisions and to assess its activities. We have therefore tried to be as open and clear as possible about what we do and why we do it. This increases the credibility of our monetary policy and makes it easier to anchor inflation expectations around the target. Part of this openness entails clearly describing how our analyses are achieved and the processes for making interest rate decisions. I believe that most people are familiar with the way we conduct monetary policy in general. We look ahead and base our monetary policy on forecasts. We have held many speeches on this subject. But how do we go about producing a forecast that leads to a decision on the interest rate? This is probably not as well-known and I intend to talk about it today. In recent years we have changed our methods of working in a number of fields. For example, since the beginning of 2007 we report very clearly the future interest rate path we expect to see.
On that assumption, around two-thirds of the net job losses from the Covid crisis have already occurred, with a further 500,000 losses expected in the remainder of the year. That unemployment projection, while necessarily very uncertain, flowed from an assumption that UK output would be around 7% below pre-Covid levels by year-end. With an Okun coefficient of around 0.6, that translated into a rise of unemployment of 3-3.5 percentage points. In the August projections, this took unemployment from its pre-Covid level of 4% to around 7-7.5% at its year-end peak. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  11  Since then, there have been three significant pieces of news about the jobs outlook. First, output has continued to recover faster than expected. By the end of Q3, output is now expected to be only around 3-4% below its pre-Covid level. Other things equal, this lowers risks to the MPC’s unemployment projections. Second, acting in the opposite direction, there are downside risks to this output projection as we move into the fourth quarter due to the new lockdown measures and any future measures. The third piece of significant news is the announcement of the Government’s new JSS last week, which provides wage subsidies to workers returning on reduced hours for a six month period. With details still to be finalised, it is too early to reach quantitative conclusions on the impact of the JSS.

Since this is the first time that a President of the European Central Bank has retired, I have no way of knowing if this is just standard protocol, or if it is something more. I hope it is not just that you are eager, as you  BIS Review 47/2003  1  said in your invitation, to “facilitate my departure”. I prefer to think that it reflects the warm relationship that has been built up among us during the past few years. I remember when it was first proposed to establish a Eurogroup, or “Euro-X” as it was then called. And I remember that some people said that such a group would be a threat to the ECB and its independence. Frankly speaking, I also had some doubts. I was proved wrong. As I have since said in public on various occasions, the Eurogroup meetings represent a “golden opportunity”; a golden opportunity for dialogue; a golden opportunity to be open, to be frank, to be honest, to criticise, and to listen. If you liken EMU to a house, then we are its family, and the Eurogroup is the dinner table. It is where the family members get together to tell each other what they are doing, to listen to each others advice, and learn to live together, as they must do, responsibly. Each member who joined this family did so on the understanding that his new house would be built on two stable pillars; not just a sound monetary policy, but also sound economic policies.
Mortgage and real estate markets remain the biggest source of risk. I would like to make two observations in this connection. First, the imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets persist. Both mortgage lending and prices for single-family homes and privately owned apartments have continued to rise at a moderate rate over recent months. And while prices for residential investment property have not increased any further, the risk of a price correction in this segment is particularly high. The renewed increase in vacancy rates indicates that the robust activity in rental apartment construction may have led to oversupply, exerting downward pressure on rental income and, in turn, on the prices of these properties. At the same time, initial yields on residential investment property, in other words the ratio of rental returns to transaction prices, are at historically low levels. In the event of an interest rate rise, initial yields on investment properties will also have to increase upon a change of ownership. This would place additional pressure on prices. Second, the risk appetite of domestically focused banks remains high. This is partly due to the fact that interest rate margins of these banks fell further in the first half of 2018. As long as this pressure on margins persists, incentives for domestically focused banks to increase risktaking will remain substantial.

Moreover, Credit Suisse and UBS have taken important organisational steps to improve their resolvability as part of their resolution planning. For instance, they have both set up Swiss  1  Final requirements refer to the requirements that will apply after expiry of all transitional provisions. In particular, they concern the qualitative requirements for going-concern capital. Page 1/3  Berne, 13 December 2018 Fritz Zurbrügg  News conference  subsidiaries that contain their systemically important functions, including, in particular, domestic deposit and lending business. To ensure an orderly resolution in a crisis, progress is still needed in three areas in particular. First, FINMA, as the competent authority, is currently in the process of drawing up resolution funding plans. These aim to ensure that a bank has sufficient liquidity to implement a resolution without recourse to state support. Second, it must be ensured that big banks’ lossabsorbing capacity is adequate, not only at group level, but also on a stand-alone basis at the level of the individual group entities. In this context, the Federal Council has announced that, during the first half of 2019, it will decide on the corresponding requirements for the highest operating unit of the big banks – i.e. the parent entity. Third, Credit Suisse and UBS must further reduce the financial and operational dependencies within the group. Domestically focused banks  I would now like to turn to the domestically focused banks. Here too, there has been little change since the Financial Stability Report was published in June.
In this regard, the Bank of Zambia and the financial service providers under its regulation and supervision are pleased to be part of the celebrations for International Women’s Day 2008 Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, our country has made great economic strides in the past few years. We have had positive economic growth averaging 5% in the last five years. The macroeconomic environment has stabilised with the achievement of single digit inflation as well as reduced interest rates. In addition we have seen increased investments in the mining and other productive sectors. This improved environment presents great opportunities  BIS Review 29/2008  1  for our country for both men and women. As you all know, women have from time immemorial taken centre stage in the running of small and medium enterprises ranging from agriculture, mining, and tourism, to manufacturing as well as cross border trading. All these economic activities need financing in order to grow and contribute to our country’s Gross Domestic Product. Ladies and Gentlemen, this brings me to the theme of International Women’s day for this year and that is “Financing for Gender Equality”. At the international level, commitments have been made on financing for gender equality and the empowerment of women by governments all over the world. A large number of governments have taken initiatives to integrate gender perspectives into their national budgets in order to reflect the differentiated needs of women and men. At a national level, Zambia is committed to financing for gender equality.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am happy to inform you that among the products on exhibition here, we have Finance Building Society marketing loans without collateral. This is a very welcome  2  BIS Review 29/2008  development as one of the challenges to women accessing finance is the requirement for collateral which most do not have. We also have the United Nations country office with all their respective agencies participating in this exhibition to show case how they are supporting women in this country. We appreciate your collaboration with us in this exhibition. The Environmental Council of Zambia has also joined with the financial institutions to increase our awareness on environmental issues and thus promote sustainable development. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, I believe the next two days will be very informative and rewarding. We have 10 commercial banks, 2 building societies and over 10 microfinance institutions exhibiting their products. I understand that tomorrow, these institutions will be recognizing some of their most loyal and exemplary customers and for this I commend them. I am sure that not only women but men will find this exhibition beneficial and I wish you a productive and informative two days. Thank you. BIS Review 29/2008  3
John C Williams: The right tools for our time Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the International Economic Symposium co-hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank and NABE, Eltville, 10 May 2022. ***  As prepared for delivery Good afternoon. I'm so pleased to be here with you today. We've waited a long time to gather in person. And I think we can all agree that meeting in this charming location was worth the wait. For most visitors, Eltville is renowned for its wine and roses. But for economists, it's a place to convene for weighty discussions on monetary policy. Given the events happening around the world today, there is much to discuss. We are meeting at a time of significant economic challenges and uncertainties. Inflation has reached levels not seen in decades, both in the United States and in many other countries. And recent events-including the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and other supply disruptions related to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic-are exacerbating near-term inflationary pressures and uncertainty about the global economic outlook. The challenge for monetary policy today is clear: to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong economy. This, of course, is at the heart of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Although the task is difficult, it is not insurmountable. We have the tools to return balance to the economy and restore price stability, and we are committed to using them.

I expect the labor market and economy to continue to show strength and resilience. For 2022, I expect GDP growth to be around 2 percent and the unemployment rate to remain around its current low level. Conclusion Reducing inflation to our longer-run goal while keeping the labor market strong is the challenge of our time. The ongoing pandemic and war in Ukraine bring a tremendous amount of complexity and uncertainty. We will need to be data dependent and adjust  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  our policy actions as circumstances warrant. We have the right tools, and we will use them to meet this challenge. 1 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC  statement, May 4, 2022. 2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Plans for Reducing the Size of  the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, May 4, 2022. 3 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Principles for Reducing the Size  of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, January 26, 2022. 4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
That is good news from a robustness perspective. Less good is the fact that there will be a clear hierarchy of solvency rules, with the frontstop provided by a risk-weighted capital ratio and with the leverage ratio serving as backstop. In the hierarchy, leverage will be second-in-line. At least for the world’s largest and most complex banks – the ones for which Basel was designed – that hierarchy is difficult to justify. On the evidence presented here, the hierarchy should if anything be reversed, with the leverage ratio playing the frontstop role given its simplicity and superior predictive performance. The more complex the bank, the stronger is this case. The case against leverage ratios is that they may encourage banks to increase their risk per unit of assets, reducing their usefulness as an indicator of bank failure – a classic Goodhart’s Law. Indeed, that was precisely the rationale for seeking risk-sensitivity in the Basel framework in the first place. A formulation which would avoid this regulatory arbitrage, while preserving robustness, would be to place leverage and capital ratios on a more equal footing. That is why, in its recommendations on macroprudential instruments, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee has given capital and leverage ratios equal billing. 21  19  Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Section 171. 20  Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2012). 21  Bank of England (2012).

Currently, the activities of financial institutions and commercial banks have a limited scope; however, we are starting to see the signs of financial conglomeration. We have no doubt that this trend will grow and continue in the future. It will bring innovation, new financial instruments and products in the market. Along with this, rapid growth of credit and debit cards as well as other systems of payments will continue to grow. While these instruments might not subside or even reduce the use of cash, this trend must be taken into account. Transition economies of the region are lucrative markets. They are growing substantially faster than traditional European markets and offer impressive prospects for high profits and significant growth. To give you an example, return on banking activity in Albania during the last two years has been around 20 percent. These positive prospects and the eagerness to compete quickly and beyond rational limits for profits and market share may create potential risks. If managers were to lose sight of the entire picture, and financial constrains, such competition might result in mismanagement, nonperforming loans, and other banking problems. Therefore, there is no room for sloppy managerial attitude. It is very important that managerial staff must be up to the challenges which, if materialized, could be more complex than in the self-regulated developed markets. It is important to act enbloc and engage in regional projects of infrastructure including here the financial ones.