samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This has been the ECB’s objective since 2003, when it was proposed by the German former chief economist, Otmar Issing. It may appear paradoxical that price stability is not zero, but there are good reasons for this. First, the “Boskin effect”, named after the US commission that showed in 1996 that the price indices used to measure inflation  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  tended to overstate inflation, by underestimating the substitution towards products whose prices increase less quickly, and product innovation. Therefore, the inflation objective can never be too strictly observed since it is necessary to keep enough leeway to ensure that the economy doesn’t sink into deflation in the event of negative shocks. Also, low inflation facilitates structural adjustments in an economy where there are downward nominal rigidities of certain prices, in particular wages. c) In the euro area, however, like in most advanced economies, inflation remains too low, despite the historically low interest rates: the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) indeed returned to negative territory, standing at -0.2% in February 2016, and underlying inflation, i.e. excluding energy and food, is only 0.7%. Does this mean the Eurosystem can no longer achieve its price stability mandate, or will have to change its objective? I don’t think so. Current challenges do not call into question our mandate, but they change the way in which we fulfil it.

Niklaus Blattner: Review of the Swiss economy: end-of-year media news conference Introductory remarks by Prof Dr Niklaus Blattner, Member of the Directorate of the Swiss National Bank, at the End-of-year Media News Conference, Zurich, 7 December 2001 *  *  *  11 September 2001: a test for the global financial system For a number of years now so-called systemic risks have received increasing attention from the central banks and from banking and financial market supervisory authorities. In extreme circumstances, systemic risks may ultimately lead to a breakdown of the financial system. They have their origin either in a transmission of liquidity and solvency problems between banks and other financial service providers or in the fact that numerous market participants are simultaneously affected by the same non-diversifiable risks. Examples of such risks are sudden, widespread and massive losses in the value of financial assets (stock market crash), serious malfunctioning of major financial market infrastructures, large-scale natural disasters or terror attacks which obstruct markets and market participants in economic or technical and physical respects. The consequence may be a substantial disruption of economic activity. The damage caused to the affected economies is liable to be correspondingly large. The terror attacks of 11 September 2001 hit the central nerve of the global financial system - New York, the major trading centre for the world's leading currency and the preferred location of the international banking and financial services industry.
Page 5 of 14  1.2 The cyclical causes The primary mission of central banks, and of the European Central Bank (ECB) in particular, is to ensure price stability, notably by “smoothing” fluctuations in the economic cycle. They do this by setting the level of shortterm interest rates. In 1998, the ECB established a quantitative definition of price stability that it went on to clarify in 2003: to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. More recently, other central banks have adopted this 2% inflation target, for example the US Fed in 2012 or the Bank of Japan in 2013. Our monetary policy has pursued this inflation target since 1999, with tangible results: inflation has remained close to target at an average of 1.7%. Page 6 of 14 Source: Eurostat  In the past decade, however, euro area inflation has been too low: 1.3% on average between 2011 and 2019, and 1.3% today [Core inflationv is also at 1.3%]. This weakness in inflation, which can be observed in the majority of advanced economies, has reignited the debate over the 2% target. Some, such as one of my great predecessors, Jacques de Larosière, say we should be content with the current 1%. Others, on the contrary, such as Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the IMF, are arguing for a higher target of up to 4%, which would leave more room to lower interest rates at the bottom of the cycle. It is tempting simply to ignore these arguments.

I will start with the domestically focused banks before moving on to the globally active banks and, in particular, the crisis at Credit Suisse. Domestically focused banks  For the domestically focused banks, the operating environment has changed markedly over the past year. Interest rates have risen significantly and there are signs of a slowdown in the real estate market. Overall, the domestically focused banks have benefited until now from the rise in interest rates. This rise has helped to restore their interest rate margins. The banks have been able to increase their profits and strengthen their capital buffers. At current interest rate levels, domestically focused banks’ profitability is likely to continue to improve. An unexpected upward interest rate shock in the future, however, would likely have a negative impact on these banks. First, in this scenario their interest expenses would increase faster than their interest income. This is because interest rates on many outstanding loans are fixed for several years. By contrast, rates on deposits are likely to react faster to a further interest rate rise. Second, higher interest rates could lead to credit losses in mortgage lending. This constitutes a significant risk for domestically focused banks because mortgages are often their main line of business. Against this backdrop, the results of our stress tests are crucial: Thanks to their capital buffers, most banks should be able to cope with such a scenario.
The foreign currency reserve at the central bank's disposal thus becomes an important tool with regard to meeting the banks’ needs for liquidity in foreign currency in a crisis. This applies in particular in a small economy with a small currency, like Sweden's. As liquidity problems are normally the first symptoms of a crisis, it is generally also the central banks that first take action in a crisis. They often have several ways of quickly adding liquidity. These include liquidity assistance to individual institutions, so-called emergency liquidity assistance, or to the financial system as a whole. A concrete example of when this type of measure was needed was the financial crisis 2008-2009, when it was difficult for the banks to obtain access to liquidity on the markets. Many central banks were then forced to supply liquidity to a great extent so that the financial system would not suffer any shocks. The Riksbank lent USD to the equivalent of around SEK 250 billion. 5 In addition, the state in the form of the Swedish National Debt Office provided guarantees corresponding at most to around SEK 350 billion. 6 This was all done for the purpose of safeguarding the liquidity supply in the financial system so that households and companies would not suffer disruptions. I have now talked about three core tasks that central banks have to contribute to creating an efficient and stable financial system – issuing banknotes and coins, responsibility for a central payment system and acting as liquidity provider in a crisis.

Svein Gjedrem: Housing finance in Norway Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to the Norwegian Covered Bond Forum, Oslo, 27 January 2010. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. This lecture does not contain assessments of the economic situation or current interest rate setting. *  *  *  From state to private housing finance After the Second World War, the credit market in Norway was regulated. Credit demand was high. The Norwegian state endeavoured to steer credit flows towards priority sectors and the state banks therefore played an important role as credit intermediaries. There were considerable housing shortages after the war. For some population groups, living conditions were poor. In1946, the Norwegian State Housing Bank was established to provide credit for new residential construction. This bank and Statens Landbruksbank (the state agricultural bank) dominated housing finance for new house purchases up to the 1980s. State bank mortgage rates were initially set based on political objectives, but were over the years gradually revised up and adjusted to market rates. With the gradual deregulation of the credit market in the 1980s, state lending institutions assumed a lesser role in housing finance and the private market took over. Sales of existing homes increased. In 1992 private banks provided the majority of residential mortgages. Their share of housing finance was also high compared with other Nordic countries. In Denmark and Sweden, mortgage institutions were the primary source of residential mortgages.
Almost all components of demand continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace. Private consumption will benefit from the healthy improvement in disposable income. Equipment investment is being stimulated by the high rate of utilisation of production capacity and the favourable business outlook in many industries. Residential construction is likely to see a measure of calm. Yet increased investment in commercial and industrial building may offset this development to some extent. The somewhat weaker global economic development – though still favourable overall - will probably continue to have a positive impact on exports. For 2007, we expect overall GDP growth of about 2%. Monetary developments Allow me to explain developments in the financial markets and the monetary aggregates. Two topics merit particular attention: the development of credit and money supply and the exchange rate. In addition to long-term interest rates and exchange rates, loans – among other things – play an important role when changes in key interest rates are transmitted to the economy. What information can we derive from the development of lending activity? Loans are registering constant growth. Mortgage loans, which account for the great majority of all bank loans, have grown at a rate of more than 5% since 2003. This is a reflection of the clearly expansionary monetary policy at that time. The growth rate of mortgage loans has gradually slowed, however, and is now slightly below 5%. This is nevertheless still a high growth rate. Other loans, however, are witnessing stronger growth and are currently expanding by 6%.

Experience has shown that phases of a weaker Swiss franc can be followed by periods in which the franc exhibits an upward trend. Financial market players and businesses should therefore be aware of the exchange rate risks they take. Monetary policy decision The inflation outlook forms the basis for the monetary policy decision. How does this look to us? As has already been pointed out in the considerations on the economic situation, there is likely to be an above-average utilisation of economic resources. The monetary analysis shows that lending is still growing vigorously and that the Swiss franc is trending relatively lower against the euro. Yet the inflation outlook remains favourable. The reasons are three-fold: First, falling oil prices will push inflation down considerably next year, at least during the first six months. Second, the opening of the labour market is making production more flexible, thereby exerting a favourable influence on inflation. Third, the National Bank lifted its interest rates at an early stage. The chief contribution of today's interest rate adjustment is to prevent resources from being over-utilised in 2007 and 2008. As a consequence, inflation is also likely to be muted in 2008 and 2009. 2  BIS Review 123/2006  Inflation forecast graph The new inflation forecast is shown in the graph as a red dashed line. It covers the time span from Q4 2006 to Q4 2009 and depicts the inflation forecast on the assumption that the interest rate remains at 2.00% during this period of time.
At the same time, solid domestic savings rates rationalize the needs of the economy for external funding, which means reduced exposure to sudden changes in the capital flows dynamics, i.e. reduced sensitivity to shocks from the external sector. The latest economic crisis clearly illustrates the risks of excessive indebtedness and excessive dependence on external financing, which further emphasizes the importance of domestic savings, which has proven to be a more stable source of funding. Having in mind all the benefits of saving, it is my pleasure to conclude that Macedonian citizens are cultivating a savings culture in the banking sector. In the last 10 years, total deposits have grown at a rate of around 8%, on average, on an annual basis, which contributed to an increase in savings1 by about 10 p.p. at the level of 55% of GDP in 2017. The fact that the deposit growth was registered in conditions of the global crisis and more economic and political shocks proves the high confidence of the citizens in the banking sector, which remained stable, sound, highly capitalized and liquid throughout the entire period, showing high capability for successful handling of shocks. Higher growth in the denar deposits and the acceleration of growth of the long-term savings is especially positive, which strengthens the banks' capacity for long-term placements and the support for investment projects. The deposit growth provided a solid basis for increase in the lending activity and deepening of financial intermediation2 by around 8 p.p.

For all that can be said, the current turmoil is a powerful manifestation of the risk and the complexities that could come with financial globalization. For me, the turmoil points to three important observations. First and foremost, it shows that financial turmoil can happen in any market regardless of whether it is large or small, or whether it is emerging or developed. Once the imbalance is allowed to occur, financial distress will likely happen and there is no exception to it. Second, the turmoil highlights the central role that the financial sector plays in a boom-bust cycle. First is the role that it plays as a mechanism that can contribute to and trigger a crisis. This is because a bubble usually cannot happen without excessive credit growth. Therefore, without proper regulation, a combination of strong capital inflows, easy credit, and the procyclicality of the financial system can set the stage for a build-up of serious economic and financial imbalances. The financial sector also plays an important second role in that its strength and resilience can significantly help cushion the real economy from the impact of external shock. The fact that a majority of emerging markets in Asia at this time have been in a better position to weather the first round impact of the turmoil, both the direct impact on banks and the impact on financial markets from de-leveraging and capital flow reversals, is a clear testimony to the importance of this second role.
We can look back at 18 consecutive quarters of economic growth; this is a robust, broad-based economic recovery. Now is the time to sort out the issue of non-performing loans. Banks need ambitious yet realistic plans to deal with their stocks of NPLs. And they need the right governance for these plans. Earlier this year, the ECB published its “Guidance to banks on non-performing loans”. Along these lines, and as part of our supervisory dialogue, we take a close look at the banks’ ability to manage their NPL stocks. We then scrutinise the plans devised by the banks to reduce those stocks. We will start providing our feedback later this month. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  Banks have to carefully consider how they will react should any performing loans happen to become non-performing. So, with the future in mind, we have to ensure that the problem of NPLs does not recur. New NPLs should therefore be conservatively provisioned within a reasonable period of time. This would serve to strengthen the balance sheets of banks, enabling them to focus on their core business. That’s why we have drafted an addendum to our guidance on non-performing loans. It sets out how we expect banks to provision for future NPLs. The main goal is to have timely provisioning, which should prevent new NPLs from becoming a problem with systemic implications. But let me say that while our expectations are firm, there are no automatic actions attached to them.

If the process of authenticating yourself is easy and secure, you are more likely to begin using and continue using additive financial services. Payments is the most basic financial service. People are more likely to continue using digital payments if they can do so without regard for the recipient’s mobile provider or bank. In Singapore, in the case of both identity authentication and payments, we have striven to make the user experience seamless and delightful. MyInfo is Singapore’s shared consumer e-KYC engine. • There are more than 50 government and 200 private sector digital services that a user can access via MyInfo. •  Our personal data is spread across different government agencies. • They are not brought together because any one government agency should not know all the personal details about a citizen; agencies should only collect and access data relevant to their work. • MyInfo empowers the consumer to give consent to his service provider to access his personal data residing in different government agencies, be it for opening a bank account or applying for a credit card. PayNow is our system for cheaper, faster and secure interoperable peer-to-peer payments. It has reached $ billion in transactions per month. Other countries, notably India, Estonia, and the Nordics, have also created advanced industrywide digital infrastructures. • A next step would be to learn from one another’s experience in developing public digital infrastructures – to meet our own country needs as well as to ensure seamless interoperability of these infrastructures across borders.
Chart 15: Major structural changes are increasing the sensitivity of Capital Flows-at-Risk to push shocks  2006  2018  2030 excluding growth in 2030 including growth in EME external balance EME external balance sheets sheets  -1  -2  Impact of the increasing role of investment funds  -3  Impact of the shift to market-based finance Impact of higher share of FX-denominated debt in EMs Pre-crisis Total  -4 Capital Flows-at-Risk as a % of GDP  Sources: IMF, EPFR, IIF, Bank calculations. Notes: This chart shows estimates and projections for the sensitivity of Capital Flows-at-Risk to negative push shocks at different points in time. The chart is based on separate panel quantile regressions for FDI, banking, market-based finance and investment fund flows. We use the global FCI (push), country-specific FCIs (pull), and the share of NFC debt denominated in foreign currency as regressors. The third bar combines regression results with projections for the composition of flows and the role of FX-denominated debt in 2030, as described below and in footnote 21. The fourth bar also takes into account projected growth in EM’s external balance sheets as described below and in footnote 21. In particular, we estimate that the growing shares of FX-denominated debt, market-based intermediation and, within that, the increasing role of investment funds, have increased the sensitivity of Capital Flows-at-Risk to push factors by 50% since the crisis (second bar, Chart 15) – largely using up the self-insurance purchased by EMEs. Left unattended, these vulnerabilities are likely to grow.

There were few plans for large-scale investment, and they mainly concerned the renewal of modernization of existing equipment. Retail sales contracted in February, after posting a substantial rise in January. Employment levels remained stable in industry, except in the automobile sector, where they declined. The retail and market services sectors showed little change, but employment fell in the building industry. Increasing use was made of flexi-time, annualized working time and part-time working to respond to variations in demand. BIS Review 32/1997
Jan F Qvigstad: On making good decisions Speech by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, 9 November 2010. The text below may differ from the actual presentation. This speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or current interest rate setting. *  *  *  I would like to thank Øyvind Eitrheim, Amund Holmsen, Marie Norum Lerbak, Kjetil Olsen and Øistein Røisland for their valuable assistance in preparing this lecture. I would also like to thank Helle Snellingen for her contribution to the translation of the Norwegian text into English. 1. Introduction  When Hans Rasmus Astrup was appointed minister in Johan Sverdrup’s government in 1885, he sold his business in Stockholm and moved back to Norway. As I mentioned in my lecture here two years ago 1 , Astrup was at the time perhaps Norway’s wealthiest man. On his return to Norway, he needed a place to live, bought a plot of land here in Drammensveien and decided to build the house we are sitting in now. The question might be raised whether it was a good decision to build such a large and ostentatious house. But Astrup was not just looking for a home for his family. The house was also intended to provide a venue for interdisciplinary and political discussions. 2 We all make many decisions every single day, some more important than others.

In hindsight, more micro-data would have detected increasing systemic vulnerabilities in the residential property market, as well as increasing exposures among economic agents throughout the economy. To this end, more granular data would overcome the limitations of aggregated data in detecting vulnerabilities that are concentrated in selected segments of the economy and financial system. While these challenges in totality may appear to be rather daunting, I strongly believe they are surmountable, especially with greater collaboration amongst statisticians, compilers and end-users of data. It is with this in mind that the Regional Statistics Conference was envisioned, organised and realised. On behalf of the Local Organising Committee, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all our key partners in making this conference a reality. Special thanks to the ISI and its SEA Regional Network for choosing to have this inaugural regional conference in Kuala Lumpur. I would also like to thank Tan Sri Andrew Sheng; Professor Dr. Pedro Silva; and Mr. Agus Sudjianto, as well as all paper presenters for sharing their thoughts and experiences at the conference. As part of our effort to encourage more involvement of young statisticians in statistical conferences and to recognise their participation in this conference, we will confer the Young Statistician’s Award of the ISI-RSC 2014 at the end of this conference. There are 26 entries for 4 prizes under this award. The winners will be announced at the closing ceremony on Wednesday afternoon.