samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Data releases on inflation and economic activity since the inception of the cycle of rate cutting and the favorable course of risk indicators have vindicated these preemptive monetary policy decisions and strengthened the impact of policy decisions on expectations, gradually bringing market interest rates down to historically low levels (Figure 13). The Central Bank assesses that the decline in market interest rates is also attributable to policy rate reductions, as well as maintaining flexibility in interest rate decisions in favor of a downward bias and the recovery in risk perceptions in the second quarter of 2009. The downward trend in market interest rates also reverberated on medium term real interest rates causing real market interest rates to go down compared to the first quarter and to follow a course below the levels of the pre-crisis period (Figure 14). Notwithstanding the fact that a decline in real interest rates in periods of stagnation is an anticipated change in healthy economies, I would like to underline that this has never been witnessed in the Turkish economy before. In this regard, the current level of real interest rates is considered to be a favorable development as it verifies that the Turkish economy is on the path of normalization.

First, the effects of the pandemic have significantly increased demand for certain categories of spending, especially for durable goods and housing. This increase in demand is occurring while supply in these sectors is being adversely affected by the pandemic. The case study for this dynamic is the automobile sector. The combination of high demand and supply shortages has led to historically low inventories. Customers are lining up to buy cars but are finding the dealer lots empty. It's a seller's market, and prices have soared. New car prices are up nearly 15 percent since the start of the pandemic, and used car prices have skyrocketed, rising more than 50 percent. Another prominent example is housing. With remote work policies in place, many people have relocated-buying larger homes in the South, in the suburbs, and in more affordable cities. This shift has caused demand for housing in some regions to far outstrip supply, while new housing construction has been held back by shortages in labor and materials. The imbalance between demand and supply has led to bidding wars. Homes have sailed off the market at record prices, with many purchased sight unseen. This combination of high demand and crimped supply has also resulted in rapid increases in rents, especially for apartments coming onto the market. The second major imbalance is in the labor market, where overall demand far exceeds existing supply.
Technology will reshape financial services in the next 10 years, much more profoundly than it has in the last 5 years. Sustainability will become an increasingly central focus for financial services as the world strives towards a low-carbon future. Jobs in financial services will transform, with growing skills requirements across multiple domains. Technology, Sustainability, and Jobs are three areas that MAS has focused on intensely in recent years, working closely with the financial industry. Over the last two years, MAS has put out about 70 reports, speeches, and media statements on just these three subjects. Together with our industry partners, MAS facilitates discussions and provides updates, on Technology through the Green Shoots series, and on Jobs through the Growing Timber series. And just three weeks ago, we issued our inaugural Sustainability Report which covered not only the Green Finance Action Plan for the financial industry but also MAS’ efforts to reduce its own carbon footprint and to make the Official Foreign Reserves more climate-resilient. So, important as these three areas are, I will not touch on them today. There will continue to be ample opportunities to talk about them in future. MAS’ FINANCIAL POSITION Before I wrap up, let me provide an update on MAS’ financial performance. The investment return from the Official Foreign Reserves was $ billion in FY2020/21. This comprised: Investment gains of $ billion, mainly from interest income and realised capital gains.

5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  One example is artificial intelligence. Ten years ago, the potential impact of AI and machine learning on financial firms was discussed in niche conferences as one of those things on the horizon. Today, 80% of firms we regulate use machine learning. The increasing use of AI will pose big societal questions – what kind of decisions can AI be allowed to make, how to protect against AI creating and amplifying biases/discrimination. These are debates which go much wider than the international financial regulatory community, but to which we must contribute. And there are also specific financial-regulatory issues that have cross border implications. For example, whether AI systems could contribute to procyclicality and risk amplification, whether and how they should be used in regulatory capital models, and what should be the standards for the appropriate governance and oversight of decisions made by AI. That is just one example. Use of the cloud by financial firms poses similar issues – as does the technology-driven changes that are happening in cross-border payment systems and that present new combinations of risk. The challenges go beyond new technology. Regulators and supervisors are increasingly working together to ensure the financial system is resilient to the risks posed by climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy. The regulatory response to this complex financial stability risk is, rightly, multi-faceted.
Households live forever and have standard intertemporal preferences over consumption (Ct) and hours worked (Ht). Investment (It), which is subject to adjustment costs, cannot be funded directly by households and instead must be financed by borrowing from a bank. Bank loans (Lt) are financed by the capital of bankers (Bt) and deposits (Dt) from households. Banks are owned and run by bankers. A proportion (1-γ) of bankers die at the end of each period and are replaced by a new generation. Bankers reinvest all their earnings in the capital of the bank whilst they live, and leave their net wealth to households when they die. In log-linear form (carets denote log-deviations from steady-state), the standard block of the model is described by: 1)  Market-clearing condition for output (Yt);  2)  Production function (Zt is TFP and Kt is capital);  3)  Labour market equilibrium (Xt is marginal costs);  4)  Price of physical capital (qt);  5)  Return on capital (rkt);  6)  Law of motion for physical capital;  7)  Consumption Euler equation (rnt is deposit rate);  8)  New Keynesian Phillips curve (πt is inflation rate). The special ingredient is a moral hazard friction in the banking sector.

Changes in bank profits, in turn, reflect the average spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate on changes on the deposit base, the average return on lending on changes in bank capital, positive shocks to the rate of return on current lending and negative shocks to the deposit rate. We assume that policy makers seek to minimise a loss function:   13)      L    j  t2 j   y yt  j  yt* j j 0     k 2  l  t j   k t* j   2  The addition of the arguments in kt is designed to reflect financial stability concerns. We assume equal weights of 1 on inflation and 0.01 on the output gap and capital gap. The starred variables are the levels of output and lending which would hold in a frictionless economy. Policymakers are set the nominal interest rate and the bank levy/subsidy. The model was calibrated with standard parameter values at a quarterly frequency (see, for example, Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist, 1999). Bank leverage was set at 10 in the steady state and the steady-state spread between the return on capital and the deposit rate is 1 percent.
Sabine Lautenschläger: Interview in Le Monde Interview with Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, in Le Monde, conducted by Ms Marie Charrel on 3 November 2014. *  *  *  On 4 November, the European Central Bank (ECB) assumes responsibility for the supervision of the 120 largest banks in the euro area, which account for 82% of European bank assets. Sabine Lautenschläger, member of the Executive Board of the ECB and ViceChair of the new Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), answers some questions. The SSM starts operations on 4 November. What is the mission of this new institution? Our task is to be an intrusive and independent European supervisor which contributes to the safety and soundness of the banking system and the stability of the financial system. Our aim is to identify inappropriate risks as well as procedures within credit institutions well in advance and to act in an efficient and timely manner to mitigate them. With the start of the SSM, there will be one supervisory approach in the 18 countries of the euro area – thus, for the first time, creating a supervisory level playing field for banks in the euro area. In our dayto-day business, we will ensure that banks are sufficiently capitalised, that they have sufficient liquidity, and that they have established a governance structure as well as risk control procedures that are appropriate for their activities. The ECB has just published the results of the banking stress tests.

As supervisors we do not think in terms of countries, but of banks’ business and risk profiles. Each bank operates differently and therefore has to face different problems; it would be unwise not to see them individually. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
We are, again, watching this carefully, and it is why in 2010 we implemented the Building Societies Sourcebook to encourage appropriate risk management of lending and funding. The latter will be supported in future when we implement the net stable funding ratio which is the international standard to discourage reliance on short-term funding. We are also increasingly focussed on operational risks and the prudential implications of conduct risk, as I know are societies. I want to pick out one area of operational risk which is important, namely IT systems risk. One aspect of this is the cost and complexity of updating legacy IT systems in the face of growing demands on those systems from innovation in products. Cyber risk is also very high on our list of priorities. I recognise that not all societies have an internet presence, though I do know, of course, that you all use the internet. We will be seeking to ensure that cyber risk is properly tackled by societies as appropriate. In saying this, I am not seeking to pick out societies from other firms that we supervise, but we do think that these risks are in important respects common to all firms. Societies have generally been less affected than the large banks by conduct mis-selling costs, though not fully immune.

In the years leading up to the start of the crisis there was a dearth of prudential supervision, but I am quite prepared to acknowledge that there have been periods where the opposite has been true. My point here is that I don’t think the system of integrated regulation demonstrated the ability to deliver a stable equilibrium of conduct and prudential supervision. Third, there is something of an inbuilt tendency within integrated regulation to play down the active debate of issues where conduct and prudential regulators find themselves with potentially conflicting objectives. Of course, it can be said that the “twin peaks” approach that we are introducing could lead to endless debate and no outcomes. My own view is that that is not correct, and that the benefits of clarity in defining the objectives of the PRA and the new Conduct Authority, the FCA, will dominate any other consequences. There are several important reasons why reform of financial regulation will, in my view, be an important step forward, starting with establishing very clear public policy objectives for financial regulation to which we, as the regulators, are fully committed. For both banks and insurance companies, the PRA will have the objective of promoting the safety and soundness of firms. Consistent with this objective, it will focus on the potential harm that firms can cause to the stability of the financial system in the UK. We define a stable financial system as one that is resilient in providing the critical financial services that the economy needs.
Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, at this point I particularly want to recognise the contributions of Dr S B Nicol-Cole who was the first Chairman of the Board of Trustees, and who only took leave of us last year. His contributions during the very critical teething period for the Trust was truly valued and we want to thank him for his services and wish him well in all his future endeavours. Let me also recognise the pioneering efforts of Dr J D Rogers, erstwhile Governor of the Bank, who recently retired from the services of the Bank of Sierra Leone. I want to assure him that his efforts in this area will not go in vein. In that same vein, I want also to congratulate Prof. Aiah A Gbakima, the new Chairman of the Board of Trustees, who was elected Chairman by his colleague members of the Board, after acting in the capacity for one year. I have no doubt that with Professor Gbakima’s drive and commitment, the Charity will continue to grow from strength to strength. I will be remiss in my duty, if I did not recognise also our development partners who have made valuable contributions towards realising the Trust’ Aims and Objectives. On behalf of the Board, Management and Staff of the Bank of Sierra Leone, I wish to register our profound appreciation for their collaborative efforts and financial support towards the Charity.

Mohamed S Fofana: Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund Keynote address by Mr Mohamed S Fofana, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Sierra Leone, at the Scholarship Award Ceremony of the Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund, Freetown, 25 January 2008. *  *  *  Mr Chairman Members of the Board of Trustees of the Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund Board of Directors and Management of the Bank of Sierra Leone Officials of the Ministry of Education Heads of Commercial Banks and other Financial Institutions Members of the Fourth Estate Distinguished Guests, including the Awardees Students and pupils It is my honour and privilege to warmly welcome you all to the Scholarship Award Ceremony of the Bank of Sierra Leone Charity Trust Fund. The idea of a Charity Trust Fund was conceived by the Bank of Sierra Leone in the wake of the devastation caused by the decade old civil conflict in every sector of our society, the education sector, being key. We were convinced that the future for a better Sierra Leone and a decisive turnaround in the state of the economy, lie largely in education taking its rightful place in the development plan. As the nation’s Central Bank, we have a pivotal role to play in the development aspirations of the country. That is why as a corporate body, we have recognised our responsibility in the discharge of our duties to honour our corporate social responsibility.
This means that he is also included in the Steering Committee that prepares the General Board’s meetings and monitors the ESRB’s current work, and in the Advisory Scientific Committee, which is the other advisory body. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  continued financial stability work is formed by stress tests of the banks. During the financial crisis, both the US and European authorities implemented and reported such stress tests. Their aims were to increase transparency concerning the banks’ risks, to increase confidence in the sector, and to push the banks into increasing their capital bases. The next European stress test will be reported this June. The Swedish regulations for the financial sector need to be strengthened The Swedish regulations for the financial sector also need to be strengthened. Consequently, the Executive Board and General Council of the Riksbank have, in a communication to the Riksdag, urged the Riksdag to assign the government to carry out a thorough review of the regulations.7 The starting point for this is that we need a cohesive and effective regulatory framework that allows us to better prevent and manage crises in the future. Firstly, the mandates and roles of the authorities involved are unclear. As the regulations are currently written, responsibility for financial stability is shared by the government, Finansinspektionen, the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office. But it is not specified sufficiently clearly who is to do what or how the exchange of information and knowledge is to take place.

However, two members of the Executive Board remained responsible for tabling proposals for decision in issues of monetary policy and financial stability. This was also changed later, so that these two were no longer responsible for tabling proposals for decision, but only acted as spokespersons. When Irma Rosenberg left, the role of spokesperson for monetary policy disappeared, and when Lars Nyberg leaves at the end of this year, the role of spokesperson for financial stability will also probably disappear. The Executive Board has also decided to assign the Governor to assume managerial responsibility for the Heads of Department and to monitor the Riksbank’s activities within the scope of the fixed budget and operational plan. However, this will not solve the problem of the Governor not being head of the Riksbank in the same way as a Director General is head of an authority. The Riksdag Committee on Finance has stated its intention to review the Sveriges Riksbank Act once other issues it has been assigned by the government to investigate have been cleared up. My suggestion is that the role of the Governor of the Riksbank also be reviewed and strengthened at the same time. There are many ways in which this could be done, and different countries have taken different approaches. One possibility that I think might work well would be to have a Governor who is head of the authority and two Deputy Governors who, under the Governor, each take responsibility for their part of operations.
William C Dudley: The evolving structure of the US treasury market Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at The Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market: Second Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 24 October 2016. * * * On behalf of the New York Fed and our co-sponsors, it is my pleasure to welcome you to this second annual conference on the evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market. We have the opportunity today to continue the dialogue around the changing nature of the Treasury market, a discussion that grew more urgent following the events of October 15, 2014.1 We have made significant progress since last year’s conference in improving our collective understanding of the Treasury market, and I believe it is important to continue official and private sector collaboration on this topic. Indeed, there is much left to do to ensure the continued integrity and effectiveness of this market, and I look forward to the further progress we will make today. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System.2 Over the past year, the Joint Member Agencies 3 have engaged with market participants and other members of the public to gain more information on the changing structure of the Treasury market.

They are evolving rapidly, they are highly automated in key market segments, and information on trading activity is not widely available. As a result, it is challenging for the official sector, market participants, and members of the public to effectively analyze these markets, understand the sources and risks of flash events, and evaluate how liquidity is changing. Given the role of the Treasury market as the deepest and most liquid fixed income market in the world, it is clear that both the official sector and the public need improved access to transactionlevel data, and I am pleased that we are making real progress on this front. Greater transparency into Treasury market activity is necessary in maintaining the market’s many important roles: as a risk-free benchmark for financial instruments; as a liquid investment and source of safe collateral; as a channel for the implementation of monetary policy; and, of course, as a tool to help finance U.S. government activities. As the Treasury market continues to evolve, several complex questions lie ahead. How should data reporting gaps be closed to ensure that as many relevant Treasury transactions as possible are collected? What is the proper scope and best process for sharing Treasury market data with the public? How can the Joint Member Agencies and private stakeholders best collaborate to ensure Treasury market stability and efficient market function, even as market structure evolves and new technologies emerge?