samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Scarce resources would be used less efficiently and trade protection would likely lessen the level of competitive pressure that helps drive innovation. Moreover, lower productivity growth would likely lead to a slower improvement in a nation’s living standards over time. This negative consequence of higher trade barriers can be illustrated most starkly by the estimates of the costs per job saved through protectionist measures. Researchers that have studied this closely estimate that the costs per job saved from protectionist measures in the United States typically run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. To illustrate, consider the case of import restrictions on Chinese tires. The cost of a job saved was estimated at $ per year while the measures were in place, or more than 20 times the average worker’s compensation.5  Better Approaches to Deal With Globalization Rather than protectionism, a better policy would be to help domestic workers and companies compete more effectively, rather than compete less. We need additional mechanisms that allow us to more fully capture the benefits from liberalized trade and to more proactively mitigate its costs. Ideally, policy should also better address job losses and income inequality from automation and other technological advances. How we respond should depend on regional and industry circumstances. These include the nature of trade impacts, the skill sets and location of the workers that have been affected, and 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  the amount of resources that can be mobilized to facilitate adjustment.

This designation will be the Gold Standard in banking  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  qualification and recognition. It will be jointly awarded with the Chartered Institute of Bankers. This award, I am confident, will be the catalyst that significantly elevates professionalism in the banking industry. I am most inspired by the theme of this year’s conference. It is pragmatic, realistic and aptly sums up the importance of talent management as we steer through the evolving financial landscape. Topics such as “Asia 2.0: Leading the Next Wave of Growth” and “Global Workforce Strategies CEOs Deploy to Achieve Leading Business Result” would be significant especially for HR practitioners managing multinational companies in Asia. Besides, topics such as “Are Our Graduates Employable?” will also be an interesting meeting point for HR practitioners and educators. I wish you an insightful and productive discussion. I trust that today’s conference is merely another step in the journey of intellectual quest that will continue long after this conference has ended. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Jean-Claude Trichet: A few remarks on communication by central banks Keynote address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the 25th HORIZONT Award Ceremony, Frankfurt am Main, 16 January 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is with great pleasure that I have accepted the invitation from HORIZONT on the occasion of the 25th anniversary award ceremony. I am honoured to see so many distinguished guests from the German media and communications industry in the audience. The longstanding tradition that this event enjoys demonstrates that media and communications play an important role in all aspects of modern societies, including, though perhaps more recently, that of monetary policy. In today’s address, I should like to talk about the challenges facing central bank communication, from a central banker’s perspective. International, and, in particular, European media and many other intermediaries play a decisive role in the process of disseminating information about the ECB’s monetary policy. Media coverage of monetary policy actions is an important channel of the ECB’s communication strategy, and thus an important factor for our policy’s success. In the euro area, currently comprising 15 member countries (with the accession of Cyprus and Malta on 1 January 2008) and beyond, national media have retained their important role in making the central bank’s actions and its objectives understood by national audiences. In my address, I will first elaborate on how central banks in general communicate, and then explain how the ECB addresses its audience.

Establishing an effective communication policy was particularly important for a young institution that did not have its own track record, as was the case when the ECB started its operations in 1999. The ECB operates in a multilingual and multicultural environment. We have to address a significant number of audiences in each culture, the general public, opinion leaders, social partners, financial markets and, of course, the media as our partners who are key in the process of transmission of our messages to the audiences. These groups have different expectations with regard to the quantity and nature of our communications. For our communication policy to be effective, we have to make sure that our messages are transmitted in a consistent and timely manner throughout the euro area, and that there is an equal treatment of media across countries. In the presence of 23 official languages in the European Union and 13 official languages in the euro area, it is very important to ensure that the very same message is conveyed to citizens in all countries, and that appropriate translations are made. In addition to providing these translations of the ECB’s official communications in all languages spoken by the euro area countries, a number of channels are used to ensure full respect of the single voice principle. The Eurosystem-wide external communication activities of the national central banks are coordinated by the ECB. Due consideration has been given to the different cultures of communication existing in the euro area.
Second, forward guidance remains the anchor for monetary policy. As I explained before, for our first interest rate hike to be implemented, all three of the well-known conditions need to be met. Another crucial element of this forward guidance is the sequencing of the exit strategy, whereby we will not raise interest rates until net purchases under our asset purchase programme have come to an end. Third, given what I have just said regarding inflation prospects, we cannot rule out the possibility that all the conditions in our forward guidance will be met sooner than we had expected some months ago. And as a result, movements in our monetary policy towards normalization seem more likely. In the coming months, we will have to decide how to exercise our optionality. And as far as this how is concerned, the key word should be, in my view, gradualism. In other words, I see no reason to overreact. This view is based on several considerations. We first have to take into account that the length of the medium term, which is the time horizon of our monetary policy orientation, is dependent on the state of the economy and the nature of the shocks hitting it. When demand shocks prevail, the medium-term horizon is shorter and closer to the standard transmission lag of around two years.

In this regard, high inflation and subdued wage growth (like we have observed so far in the euro area) imply a substantial decline in real incomes, which could translate into lower consumption and investment, and, therefore, into weaker underlying inflation dynamics beyond the immediate short term. Even though part of these negative effects have been mitigated so far by fiscal policy in many countries − where measures have concentrated on compensating, at least partially, low income households for the higher energy prices − looking ahead it is unclear how persistent this policy support may be. 11  3.2  Implications for monetary policy  Now that I have characterised recent inflation dynamics and the risks surrounding future price developments, let me draw some conclusions on how monetary policy in the euro area should respond, which are fully embedded in the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy. First, in this setting of heightened uncertainty, we have underlined the need to maintain optionality and flexibility and to remain attentive to the incoming data and forecasts in order to correctly adjust our monetary policy stance. As we have stated on numerous occasions, the ECB stands ready to act at any time and to adjust all of its instruments as deemed appropriate. But, I insist, the near term is plagued with uncertainty, in terms of pure inflation dynamics but also in relation to several geopolitical risks which could potentially be highly disruptive. That is why, now more than ever, we must maintain optionality and flexibility.
If these three steps are still insufficient, ex post contributions from the institutions authorised in the affected Member States will be used. However, if such contributions are not immediately accessible, including for reasons relating to financial stability, the Board may exercise its power to contract borrowings or other forms of support for the Fund, or to make temporary transfers between national compartments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Banking Union and European Integration I mentioned before that the Banking Union complementing Monetary Union will have farreaching implications for European integration in general as it implies a vast sharing of sovereignty. European construction is still under the grips of the Jean Monnet functional method of integration: at each new reform step, other become logical and pressing. Regarding Banking Union itself, the other element that should complement centralised supervision and bank resolution in a banking union concerns a centralized deposit insurance scheme. Such a scheme would have several benefits. It would be commensurate to the centralized supervisory regime, and ensure that decisions that are taken on a centralized level affect depositors in all countries in the same way, thus ensuring a level playing-field. Depositors would be treated in a uniform way across countries, independently of their location and the location of the bank to whom they have entrusted their savings.13 What was achieved in December 2013, when the co-legislators agreed on the Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive (DGSD) was only a little part of what in the end will be necessary.

from assessing the resolvability of banks and drawing up resolution plans, to deciding on resolution schemes for failing banks and whether to make use of the Fund in such cases. These tasks are shared between the Board at the European level, which is directly responsible for all banks under direct ECB supervision and all cross-border banks, and the national resolution authorities, which are responsible for the other banks. However, the Board may at any time decide to directly exercise all the relevant powers under the Regulation with regard to any of the indirectly supervised banks. In addition, the Board also becomes directly involved whenever a resolution of an indirectly supervised bank will make use of the Fund. Finally, there is also an option for Member States to choose that the Board will be responsible for all banks in their jurisdiction. These features make the SRM a single system. The Single Resolution Board At the centre of the SRM there needs to be a single authority with operational independence and sufficient decision-making authority to take resolution action in the interest of the euro area and of the Union as a whole. This is achieved with the setting up of the Single Resolution Board. The Board will meet in two different compositions: the plenary and the executive sessions. The executive session will consist of a Chair, four independent full-time members and two observers from the Commission and the ECB, respectively.
However, such transitory movements should have no material effect on financial conditions or the broader economy. What matters for policy transmission is the predictability that on most days money market rates will be close to the target range set by the FOMC. 13 Of course, if rates were to move substantially outside the target range and those changes were expected to persist, the Fed would take appropriate action to assure that its intended stance of policy is achieved. In addition, as highlighted in minutes to the Committee’s recent policy meetings, an operating regime with a reasonably large positive spread between the IOER and ON RRP rates would support active trading in the funds market like we see today, and would likely prevent the Fed’s involvement in the repo market from growing too large. This would, in turn, lessen the possibility that patterns of financial intermediation could be altered in unanticipated and potentially undesirable ways by the Fed’s actions. Recent changes to the overnight RRP test exercise Now I’d like to return to the ON RRP testing that the Fed has been conducting over the past year, and discuss the changes to the testing exercise that were introduced following the September FOMC meeting. You’ll recall that we began testing ON RRPs in September 2013, when the Committee instructed the Desk to examine how a potential ON RRP facility might work and how it might affect short-term interest rates.

Because the investment with the Fed is riskless, little or no economic capital would be needed to support such arbitrage by banks. In this way, the IOER rate should theoretically form a “floor” beneath short-term interest rates, allowing the Fed to achieve its target for the fed funds rate even with a very high level of reserve balances. In practice, however, many lenders in the U.S. money markets are not banks and so cannot earn IOER. Moreover, from the perspective of a potential lender to a bank, the arbitrage  2  In the five years prior to the crisis, total reserve balances averaged $ billion and excess reserves – balances in excess of those required to satisfy reserve balance requirements – averaged about $ billion. Currently, total reserve balances are about $ trillion, nearly all of which are excess reserves. 3  For discussion of changes in recent years to activity in the fed funds market, see the Liberty Street Economics blog posts, “Who’s Lending in the Fed Funds Market” and “Who’s Borrowing in the Fed Funds Market,” at http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/. 4  The FR 2420 is a transaction-based report that collects daily data on federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and certificates of deposits from domestically chartered commercial banks and thrifts that have $ billion or more in total assets and from U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks with total third-party assets of $ million or more.
Currently, the banking system is made up of the Bank of Zambia, which is the central bank, and 13 commercial banks, with a branch network of 159 as at end-December 2005 compared to 123 in 1990. •  Commercial banks have improved the range of products offered to customers, in line with global innovations. These include Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), foreign exchange accounts, Visa debit cards, mortgages, and leasing services. In 2005, 4 commercial banks launched the E-switch facility to allow their customers to share their ATMs and other payment delivery channels, like point of sale terminals. These services were unheard of before the reforms and were supported by the international community. •  Commercial banks have also embarked on other initiatives including expansion programmes based on the community banking concept. This is consistent with the rural banking concept and is intended to provide financial services to those sectors of the community that are not currently serviced by the banking sector. Ladies and Gentlemen, to meet the challenges which come with an expanded banking sector and in our desire to continue modernising the overall financial sector, it has been imperative for the prudential and supervisory mandate of the Bank of Zambia to be strengthened. In this regard, the key initiatives  2  BIS Review 72/2006  that have been effected, with an ultimate goal of promoting safe, sound and efficient operations have included: •  The enactment and amendment of the Banking and Financial Services Acts in 1994 and 2000, respectively.

Inflation and interest rates have been coming down, while the exchange rate has relatively stabilized, following a steep appreciation towards the end of 2005. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, during the period 2001-2005 growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged 4.7 percent per annum. This growth has been broad-based - extending beyond the recovery of the mining sector. In 2005, the economy registered growth of about 5.0% in real terms, marking the seventh consecutive year of positive growth in real output. This growth was largely due to the expansion in construction, driven by a robust demand for housing as well as largescale investment, which led to a marked pick-up in mineral production, particularly of copper. Other sectors, such as, tourism and transport, storage and communications also contributed to the overall economic growth. Mr Chairman, inflation declined to 15.9% at the end of December 2005 from 17.5% at the end of December 2004 despite several setbacks. These included the partial drought that significantly reduced food supply and high prices of oil and petroleum products. Attainment of single digit inflation has been Government’s goal for a long time. It is, therefore, encouraging to see inflation coming down in recent months, reaching a single digit level of 9.4% in April 2006 and dropping further to 8.6% in May and 8.5% in June 2006. This inflation out-turn has been largely due to the conduct of appropriate monetary policy aided by prudent fiscal policy and relative strengthening of the Kwacha.
20 For a further discussion of the shape of the demand curve for reserves and its implications for policy implementation, see Logan, “Operational Perspectives on Monetary Policy Implementation: Panel Remarks on The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet,” May 4, 2018. 8  above-IOR lending remains low as a share of the overnight bank funding market, as shown in Figure 9. 21 I might also expect to see shifts in bank payments behavior—for example, more daylight overdrafts or more effort by banks to “optimize” their payment flows—but I have not seen this either. Most fundamentally, I might have observed a day-to-day relationship between shifts in the stock of reserves and overnight interest rates. Figure 10 shows a scatterplot of daily changes in reserve balances against daily changes in the spread between the IOR rate and the effective federal funds rate; there is no visible relationship. 21  On Oct 24, 2018, there was an increase in the share of federal funds transactions trading above the IOR rate, reflecting an increase in bank borrowing from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) to manage LCRs, rather than interbank lending. 9  Recent experience supports my belief that we are not at the “steep” portion of the demand curve and aggregate reserve scarcity. On one day in mid-September, there was a large drop in reserves—of nearly $ billion—as the Treasury increased its cash holdings at the Federal Reserve as a result of third-quarter tax receipts, as shown by the red point in Figure 10.

It has clearly emerged from the discussion today that post-trade harmonisation is gaining momentum and achieving concrete results. The example we heard about in more detail is the progress made on the T2S harmonisation agenda. The T2S Community and the post-trade industry have engaged in the implementation of harmonised standards and market practice in areas such as cut-off times, ISO messages, corporate actions processing, account numbering and settlement finality. As Jean-Michel Godeffroy illustrated earlier today, there is an ambitious plan in place for the coming months and a sound record of achievement so far. I noted that the audience expressed moderate optimism that the “priority one harmonisation topics” would be achieved by the launch of T2S. However, there is still a lot of work to be done in order to complete all these projects. It was very interesting in this regard to hear about the experience of Professor Giovannini, whose very name is closely associated with harmonisation and market integration. In particular, he analysed the problems faced by the Giovannini Group in the early 2000s. These reflections are very important for us now to learn from past experiences and to be able to achieve concrete results going forward. The large participation at this conference today, with distinguished speakers and almost 250 participants from all over Europe, is testimony to the joint willingness of both the European and national institutions and market players to achieve post-trade harmonisation, and thus contribute to financial integration in Europe.
This figure reflects both a most significant decline in revenue and a notable increase in expenditure, of which more than 70% is directly related to the pandemic. The latest data, which exclude local government budgetary developments, are along these same lines: they show a budget deficit to August of 7.8% of GDP in cumulative 12-month terms, 4.9 pp up on the end-2019 figure. Besides the highly significant impact the pandemic has exerted on the main aggregate indicators of activity, its influence, and that of the measures implemented to contain it, has been extraordinarily asymmetrical across sectors, firms and workers. For instance, some services sectors linked to the hospitality industry and to transport, where activity habitually requires relatively high levels of social interaction, have since the start of the pandemic shown much more marked declines than those seen in the other sectors (e.g. manufacturing) across a wide range of activity, confidence and employment indicators. The regional distribution of the declines in activity and employment has also been very uneven.1 The crisis has also had a very uneven impact among workers.

These actions cannot address the health issues, but can help 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  manage near-term risks to the economy in a highly uncertain time. Earlier this week, the FOMC voted unanimously to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. This strong policy action provides meaningful support to the economy and will help sustain the economic expansion. The outlook is evolving and highly uncertain. In the weeks and months ahead, we will continue to closely monitor developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. As part of our response, my colleagues and I in the Federal Reserve System are coordinating with our counterparts around the world. Tuesday’s phone call between G7 finance ministers and central bank governors, the subsequent statement, and policy actions by central banks are clear indications of the close alignment at the international level. Financial Markets Turning to the specific responsibilities of the New York Fed, we are tasked with the implementation of monetary policy. Our goals are to keep the federal funds rate within the target range and foster stable conditions in short-term funding markets. We will ensure that the supply of reserves in the banking system remains ample, consistent with the FOMC’s direction.2 Treasury bill purchases continue to add to the underlying level of reserves, and repo operations are keeping reserve levels ample. We are monitoring conditions in money markets closely.