In envisioning the future direction of the industry in our own region, it would be constructive for us to reflect on the evolution of the modern insurance industry and contextualise it to our own prevailing and prospective environment. The modern insurance industry came with the maritime expansion which accompanied cross-border trade activity, and the rapid urbanisation which saw significant human and economic losses experienced during the Great Fire of London. This led to the establishment of the first fire insurance company and the invention of the building blocks for life insurance as we know it today. Then, as societies became more affluent, endowment and with-profit policies grew in significance as instruments for savings. As industrialisation and urbanization intensified, the break down of traditional systems of social protection prompted the expansion of insurance products that covered retirement, accident, medical care and unemployment. Throughout the 20th century, business models have continued to evolve in tandem with the higher levels of financial literacy, rising consumer expectations and advancements in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  technology. As competition compressed margins, there was a migration beyond tied-agency and commission-based distribution models to include fee-based financial advisors and direct marketing. Bancassurance and the participation of retailers in insurance distribution have also allowed insurers to significantly expand their reach with lower cost structures, while specialisation along the value-chain enabled even greater efficiencies. This more diverse landscape has enabled a much wider and deeper penetration of insurance in the advanced economies.

The baseline scenario has been revised upwards from $ to $ a barrel; the high oil price scenario has been revised downwards from $ to $ Our oil price forecast for 2020–2021 remains unchanged. These adjustments have made no major impact on expected economic growth indicators in the context of the operating fiscal rule. Finalised data suggest GDP growth was 2.3% last year, above our expectations. Our estimates suggest that the accomplishment of major investment projects emerged as key enablers of this growth. With due regard for this, we, first, reconfirm our assessment of the nature of economic growth: the economy is close to its potential; its expansion does not create additional proinflationary pressure. Second, we keep our GDP growth estimate in the baseline scenario at 1.2-1.7% for this year. The growth rates will accelerate to 1.8-2.3% in 2020 and 2-3% in 2021 as the positive effect of national projects and structural reforms provided that these deliver. The oil price adjustments in the forecast carry implications for balance of payments indicators. In the baseline scenario, the forecast current account balance for this year has been upgraded from $ billion to $ billion, chiefly on the back of a higher value of oil and gas exports. The balance of the financial account of the private sector has also been raised from with $ billion to $ billion. This is based on the actual data for the first two months of the year along with greater opportunities for the buildup of foreign assets given the higher export revenues.