samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Elvira Nabiullina: Review of recent inflation developments in Russia and economic outlook Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, in the follow-up to the Board of Directors meeting, Moscow, 18 September 2020. * * * Today, the Bank of Russia has decided to maintain the key rate at 4.25% per annum. Why have we made this decision, although we do see room to further ease monetary policy under the baseline scenario? Firstly, in recent months inflation has been slightly higher than expected. This trend has been driven by both a rapid revival of consumer demand after the lockdown period and the weakening of the ruble in July — August. We estimate that short-term proinflationary risks have slightly risen again, while disinflationary risks somewhat decreased. However, disinflationary risks still prevail in the medium run. Secondly, the external environment has become more volatile. There are rising concerns about the pace and sustainability of the recovery in the global economy, especially considering that in recent weeks the pandemic situation has worsened to a certain extent in a number of countries. Geopolitical risks have intensified. Moreover, we also considered the following factors when making our decisions. Inflation expectations remain elevated, affected by price and exchange rate movements and the persistent uncertainty over further developments. The companies we survey are reporting rises in costs due to higher input prices. Moreover, they incur extra costs since they need to comply with the sanitary and epidemiological requirements. Concurrently, businesses assess demand for their products as weak.

Evidence of a persistent ‘greenium’ in secondary market pricing is however more mixed. 14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  14  Chart 10: Currency composition of bonds by UK  Chart 11: New issue premia for non-financial  domiciled issuers (excluding gilts)  European € bonds (Sep 2020)  Source: CBI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank calculations  Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank calculations  Governments’ interest in issuing green bonds is also growing rapidly. The outstanding stock of sovereign green bonds (SGBs) currently stands at $ (Chart 12), and recent months have seen inaugural issues from a range of countries including Sweden (a use-of-proceeds bond), Luxembourg (the first European sovereign sustainability bond) and Germany (an innovative twin green and conventional issue designed to aid liquidity and comparability). Chart 12: sovereign green bonds in issue  Chart 13: Dutch green corporate bonds  Source: CBI and Bank calculations. Source: CBI, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Luxembourg Government, Swedish National Debt Office and Bank calculations. 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  15  The direct benefits to government finances are similar to those in the corporate sector, and include the ability to lock in commitments to undertake climate-improving investment, while reducing issuance costs and reaching a larger, more diverse investor base.
Krone liquidity was provided through currency swap agreements, both in euros and US dollars. We also proposed the covered bond swap arrangement and a capital injection of core capital from the government to banks. 2  Walter Bagehot (1873), “Lombard Street: A description of the Money Market”. 3  Norges Bank’s automatic borrowing facility for banks is referred to as D-loans. The interest rate on overnight D-loans is one percentage point higher than the key policy rate and forms a ceiling for short-term money market rates. 2  BIS Review 119/2009  The Norwegian monetary policy measures have been effective Before the crisis the daily surplus liquidity in the Norwegian market of about NOK 20 billion was sufficient to keep short-term money market rates near the key policy rate. From autumn 2008, Norges Bank has supplied ample liquidity, bringing bank deposits in Norges Bank to well above NOK 100 billion in periods. The substantial supply was necessary to prevent short-term money market rates from rising too high above the key policy rate or from fluctuating widely. Risk premiums at shortest end of the money market fell. Through the currency swap agreements, under which Norwegian kroner were offered in exchange for US dollars or euros, we reached participants who were active in Norwegian kroner but who did not have access to loans from Norges Bank. The currency swap agreements helped to limit the risk premiums in Norwegian interest rates. Norwegian banks are dependent on US dollar liquidity, which was on occasion difficult to procure in the market.

Related topics Coronavirus  Climate change  Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) Disclaimer  Please note that related topic tags are currently available for selected content only. European Central Bank Directorate General Communications Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Tel. : +49 69 1344 7455, E-mail: media@ecb.europa.eu Website: www.ecb.europa.eu Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Media contacts  Monetary policy  Financial markets  Central banking  Copyright 2020, European Central Bank
LIAM has been an advocate of important issues that concerned the industry and has served as the primary interface between the industry and the Government, the Bank, and other key stakeholders. In this capacity, one of its key 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  roles is shaping public opinion by providing accurate information on the industry. It is also an important agent of change for the better of the entire industry – not just in the short term or with a bias towards any particular stakeholder group. Not too long ago, a media publication reported that life insurance agents are being marginalized and the majority of them earn very low commissions due to restrictive remuneration structures. What the report failed to highlight however, was that such agents were mostly part-timers generating only one policy per month. The report also does not discuss many structural issues confronting the industry; the fact that demand for life insurance in Malaysia remains much lower than in our more developed Asian neighbours. Or that Malaysia’s per capita spending on life insurance of USD330 is lower than the world average of USD373, or seven to 12 times lower than the amount spent in Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong. Also lost was the fact that, the world is experiencing demographic, lifestyle and environmental changes that have profound implications for mortality and morbidity rates. Life threatening diseases that were benign 40 years ago are common causes of early death today due to less healthy lifestyles and greater mobility of labour.

At the HKMA, we have just introduced an initiative called “Balanced and Responsive Supervision”. It involves a mechanism to regularly review with banks possible execution issues arising from the supervisory processes, as well as to collect ideas for streamlining supervisory practices and requirements. Through better and ongoing communication with the industry, we should be able to achieve a more optimal and sustainable supervisory outcome in the longer run. 14. I would also argue that banking supervision is not the only, and should not become the most important, means in protecting the interests of bank customers. It is my strong belief that regulation and supervision are most effective in prescribing what constitutes unacceptable behaviours or outcomes, e.g. minimum standards for capital and liquidity ratios, prohibition of unacceptable market behaviours such as insider dealing and rigging of interest rate or FX benchmarks, no mis-selling of financial products, etc. However, supervision is much less effective or appropriate in setting good corporate culture, values and ethical standards of a financial firm. No amount of external supervision or policing can instill and sustain the right culture and ethics of a bank. Culture and ethical standards must be from top-down, owned by the Board and filter down to the senior management and then to all levels of the firm. A bank and its staff must internalise good culture and values in such a way that they behave properly not because they are afraid of being caught and punished by the supervisors but because they think it is unethical to do otherwise. 15.
With regard to apartment buildings in Stockholm, the direct yield is lower than the risk-free interest, but at the same time prices are affected by the fact that most property deals are made in connection with converting apartment buildings to tenant-owned apartments. For these types of transactions, direct yield cannot be used as a measure since the tenant-owners association does not have a required return comparable to that for an owner of a rental property. The financial statements presented by property companies are also considerably stronger today than what they were ten years ago. The risks associated with lending to this sector by the banks appear to be considerably lower than then. Among listed property companies, it seems as though many consider that the level of indebtedness has become too low, considering the extensive interest in buying back shares within the sector. At the same time as buying back shares can lead to a higher return on equity, there is reason for companies and their credit granters to observe the risks associated with higher indebtedness. Above all, the companies can become extremely sensitive to changes in interest rates. An overall assessment of the credit situation in Sweden thus suggests that there is greater cause to be pleased that lending is growing as an integral part of the current economic upturn than to worry about the risks which may accumulate. However, an integral part of the Riksbank’s role is to remind about changes that can occur both rapidly and unexpectedly. What is the situation in other countries?

Another example is the Netherlands which, like Sweden, is normally characterised as a small, open economy. Even there, worrying signals similar to those in the Swedish and American economies can be perceived. The improved economic activity has led to falling unemployment and rising asset prices. During the last two years, total lending has risen at an annual rate of around 15%. In the Netherlands too, a large part of this rise in lending can be explained by rising prices, especially house prices. Dutch house prices rose on average 15.8% during 1999. As a comparison, it can be mentioned that Swedish house prices rose by approximately 8% during the same period (prices for tenant-owned apartments rose to a considerably higher extent, however). In the Netherlands, household indebtedness in relation to GDP has traditionally been low, but has risen dramatically in recent years and today amounts to almost 45% of GDP. If we compare the developments in Sweden, the USA and the Netherlands, we see Dutch property prices have risen considerably faster than Swedish and American prices both in real and nominal terms. In this context, the development in Sweden appears to be less sensational. What can the Riksbank do if the build-up of risk increases? An increasing level of indebtedness in the economy, combined with rising asset prices, involves greater vulnerability to changes in the macroeconomic environment, i.e. growing risks. The obvious question then, is what the authorities can do to prevent such a build-up of risk.
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Economic forecasts, measures to exit the crisis, and the Spanish financial system Opening address by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, of the Cinco Días Series of Conferences, Madrid, 31 March 2009. *  *  *  Thank you very much for calling on me to inaugurate this series of conferences at a time burdened with challenges for economic analysis and economic policy. Given the scope of this conference, I shall address three matters of interest to the media: economic forecasts, the measures needed to exit the crisis and the current situation of the Spanish financial system. Economic forecasting has seen better days. Over the past 20 years, all institutions have been projecting high growth rates for the world economy in view of the benefits arising from increasingly integrated economic systems anchored firmly on free-market principles. Nobody could have conceived systemic market failings on a global scale such as those we are currently witnessing, and which are prompting a spectacular collapse in output and world trade. And right now, in the thick of the crisis, it is still difficult to prepare macroeconomic projections. But it is precisely in these circumstances when we most need such projections which, while they may well contain a large margin of error, are of use to us for assessing the juncture at which economies stand.

I have been involved in just about all of  BIS Review 67/2010  3  the crises of the last 30 years. But it is true that the decisions taken today, in the context of the worst global crisis since World War II at the level of the euro area as a whole are of an extreme importance; it is for my colleagues and me an immense responsibility. 4  BIS Review 67/2010
The presence of some distinguished officials from the World Bank at this inauguration is an encouragement. 8.5 The SAARC member central banks should be happy to have been able to get the SAARC Payments Initiative off the ground within such a short period of time. Given the enthusiasm and commitment by all of us, I hope that we, as a regional group, will make a substantial contribution to trade, investment and economic activity of each of our countries and also the region, as a whole. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 35/2008

To sum up, weighing all the relevant indicators and adopting a forward-looking and mediumterm perspective, the Governing Council regards the current level of ECB interest rates as appropriate with a view to maintaining the outlook for continued price stability. Aspects of the Eurosystem’s communication policy The Treaty acknowledges that it is important in a democratic constitution for an independent central bank to be open, transparent and clear about the reasoning underlying its actions. Therefore, a number of reporting obligations exist for the ECB which aim at making the ECB accountable for its performance. Moreover, by communicating clearly with the public, the Eurosystem reinforces its credibility. In this regard, the Eurosystem’s approach bears comparison with the best practices of any other central bank. In practice the ECB has committed itself to exceeding the stringent requirements of the Treaty concerning transparency and accountability. For example, the ECB releases each month a bulletin providing detailed background information regarding the current assessment of the economic outlook. At the same time, with the more extended editions of the bulletin in March, June, September and December, we fulfil the Treaty requirement to publish a quarterly report. For the benefit of the general public, the ECB issues regular press releases and an introductory statement by the President, which is released immediately after the first Governing Council meeting each month. Furthermore, the ECB submits an annual report on its activities to the European Community institutions (the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and the European Parliament).
Looking at the past, we see lax fiscal policies and monetary policies, which had to accommodate them. The latter was accompanied by pegged or foreseeable exchange rate regimes. The outcome of this scenario was high inflation and periods of volatile and unbalanced growth. In such an environment, expectations deteriorated because the public sector led the excessive increase in domestic demand, maturities were shortened and uncertainty increased, the current account deficit widened, and measures continued to fell behind. With the addition of the adverse trigger-effect of domestic or external factors to this environment, an increase in foreign exchange demand and pressure on the foreign exchange reserves of CBRT was inevitable, resulting in crises and devaluation. However, the present circumstances of the Turkish economy are very different from those of the past. To start with, as you all know, unlike the past, a floating exchange rate regime is being implemented. The most apparent feature of the floating exchange rate regime is that it is shock-absorbent. In other words, changes in the demand or supply of foreign exchange are reflected in the level of the exchange rate, and in contrast to pegged or foreseeable exchange rate regimes, the exchange rate goes up or down.

The ratio of net public debt stock to national income declined to 64.5 percent end-2004 and the Treasury borrowed with a fiveyear maturity for the first time in the domestic market. Sustainability of debt will soon be taken off the agenda soon. In this framework, it will be possible for the risk premium and consequently real interest rates to go further down in the upcoming period, as public finance has been equipped with a sustainable structure  14  BIS Review 36/2005  with the continuation of tight fiscal policy and the launch of structural reforms in the areas of banking, taxes and social security. Graph 12: Budget Deficit, Primary Surplus and Domestic Debt Stock (% GNP) 80 70  Budget Deficit  Primary Surplus  60  Domestic Debt Stock  50 (%)  40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2004  2003  2002  2001  2000  1999  1998  1997  1996  1995  1994  1993  1992  1991  1990  1989  1988  -30  Source: Turkish Treasury. Now, I would like to underline a specific point related to the current tight fiscal policy. As I have mentioned earlier, tight fiscal policy played an important role not only in alleviating the public debt problem, but also in the improvement of expectations. The key factor regarding the tight fiscal policy in the said period was the target of a high primary surplus.
Arjuna Mahendran: Role of the Central Bank in the Sri Lankan context Speech by Mr Arjuna Mahendran, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the Sri Lanka Legal Summit 2015 “Governance, Regulation and Investment – The Way Forward“, Colombo, 5 March 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, I am greatly privileged to address your distinguished audience on this topic with which I am reasonably conversant. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka today is a talking point among the public. Further, world over, central banks are in the public eye due to their specific role in staring off the global financial crisis, which caused a mini depression in 2009. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is probably the single state authority with enormous influence in the economy and economic welfare of the general public. This influence comes from the powers and functions conferred upon the Central Bank from a number of statutes led by the Monetary Law Act (MLA) of 1949. In my view, when compared with statutes governing Central Banks in other countries, MLA is the single piece of legislation that provides for time invariant powers and functions of the Central Bank. The law has worked reasonably well during last 65 years without any major amendments. The drafting of the law in 1949 has been supervised by the renowned economist Mr. John Exter from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who also in recognition of his stellar efforts was the first Governor of the Central Bank.

In his report submitted to the Government on establishment of the Central Bank, he stated as follows. I quote “the broad powers given to the Central Bank of Ceylon under the draft bill in Part II of this report are commensurate with the magnitude of this responsibility. The Bank should not be hampered by rigid limitations which might prevent it from fulfilling its purpose. When a new central bank is being established it is impossible to predict the course of its development. This will depend upon the environment within which it works and upon those who, determine its policies. Many of its powers may go unused for long periods, because they are designed for particular situations, some of which may never arise. Others are intended for use only in crises or to forestall a crisis, but prudence dictates that they be included now, so that they will be at hand in case of need. It would be foolhardy to assume, with the record of the war – and depression – induced economic crises of the last 30 years plainly before us, that the Ceylon economy will somehow escape such crises in the future. The safer assumption is the one underlying the drafting of the present bill: it is better in an uncertain economic world to be prepared for any eventuality. Many features of the draft bill have been developed in the Western Hemisphere. Others are found in one form or another in central banking legislation within the Commonwealth.
The mainstay of our economic growth, the other 77%, came from growth in productivity. Since 2013 only 9% of our annual economic growth has come from productivity improvement. The remaining 91% has come from the increase in the total hours worked As a result, employment in the UK is now around its highest rate since comparable records began in 1971. Over 73% of people aged 16–64 are working. There are now over 31 million people in work in the UK. 1  2  See Jones C I (2015) ‘The Facts of Economic Growth’, NBER Working Paper No.21142. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Unemployment has fallen at among its fastest rate for 40 years and is now very close to its pre-crisis level – over the past two years over 1 million jobs have been created. The benefits of this are clear. Perhaps only a proponent of the ‘dismal science’, only an economist would find something here to worry about. But the fact is that we can only go so far down this route. Since 2013, the economy’s output has grown by some 5%. But though we have increased by 5% the amount we have produced, we have increased even more the hours worked to produce it. And as a result the simple arithmetic means our productivity growth has been broadly flat. And the low of productivity that has resulted is one of the main reasons why pay growth has remained so low.

I do think that the severity with which the crisis hit the European Union and the scramble for solutions that followed do not indicate that the European Union is an intrinsically flawed project, but rather an incomplete one. In other words, going only halfway does not pay off. Thank you for your attention. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches