samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Experience has shown that once such rates have been communicated, they guide the market to a high degree up to entry. Lower resource utilisation but large risks in both directions In the Report we count on inflation falling back again next spring. This year’s appreciably lower resource utilisation has a lot to do with that but so does the prospect of last spring’s rapid price increases coming to an end so that the earlier effects drop out. In the latter part of the forecast period inflationary pressure in the main scenario becomes somewhat stronger as the economy recovers fairly rapidly. 6  BIS Review 89/2001  Support for this picture is to be found if one goes behind the price statistics and looks at wages and unit labour costs (Diagram 6). Even with the rather substantial downward revision of productivity growth, these costs rise at a moderate rate throughout the forecast period. That should ensure that even if inflation does not fall back quite as much as calculated, its level will be low. The overall assessment is that in September next year CPI and UND1X inflation will 1.5 and 1.7 per cent, respectively, while the rates in September 2003 will be 2.1 and 2.0 per cent. 6.

To date we have published a report on EMU’s conceivable importance for the Swedish krona; the conclusion was: not much, provided - and it is a major proviso - Sweden provides equal conditions in other respects for wealth formation and business enterprise. The krona’s part in the assessment of inflation has varied One of the topics in the discussion during the past six months has been how the Riksbank reacts to the exchange rate in the formation of monetary policy. We have been accused of being indistinct or dithery during the summer and autumn. First let me say that there is a pattern to this that I find familiar. Conducting and interpreting monetary policy is more difficult when the situation is appreciably affected by other factors than resource utilisation, for instance the exchange rate or inflation expectations. The assessments are then more complex and the Riksbank faces greater educational challenges. The decisions also tend to be more controversial because there is a clearer conflict between different goals, so that more criticism is only to be expected. Our forecasts are always based on a variety of factors. A traditional model for determining inflation in the context of a Phillips curve, for example, points to resource utilisation, inflation expectations and the exchange rate as central components. However, these variable’s relative importance for inflation changes over time.
Mr Bäckström gives his perspective on Sweden’s economy and looks at factors that contribute to long-term growth  Speech by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors and President of the Bank for International Settlements, given at the University of Gothenburg on 27 October 1999. *  *  *  A current topic, in the United States and elsewhere, is whether structural changes have made it possible to achieve stronger economic growth than before without generating inflationary tendencies. The term – a new economy – has been coined for this phenomenon. The US economy’s new, improved performance is sometimes said to be due in part to the rapid advances in computer technology and telecommunications. Internet is a part of this. Progress in these fields has led to better and more efficient processes for production and distribution. This in turn has paved the way for stronger competition, higher productivity growth and thereby lower inflation. Consumers, moreover, are better informed than they used to be. Productivity growth in the United States does seem to have risen. The IMF, to mention one observer, considers that the potential growth rate – the annual growth that can be achieved without boosting inflation – has moved up from 2.25% to 2.75%. An even higher potential rate has been estimated by others. In Sweden, too, most things suggest that labour productivity has risen somewhat faster in the present decade than it did in the 1980s.

•  Introduction of rules that ensure the conservation of capital during times of economic and financial distress. •  Imposition of higher capital requirements for systemically important institutions. •  Development of efficient forms of capital. In particular, contingent capital debt instruments that are convertible into common equity if a bank’s share price were to fall precipitously. Capital requirements with improved risk capture The recent financial crisis has shown that parts of the regulatory capital framework were not calibrated properly to account for the most complex instruments. Our efforts to revise the capital rules should emphasize the need to include these and other risks that were not appropriately captured in recent years. In many circumstances, an emphasis on improved risk-capture may be superior to simply raising the capital requirements across the board. There are two reasons for this. First, it may better tie capital to the risks being undertaken. This, in turn, would create more appropriate incentives for risk-taking. Second, it may reduce the risk of regulatory arbitrage. If the risks of some activities are not captured properly, then banks will have incentives to shift their business toward those particular activities. The Basel Committee has made very good progress in revising the capital treatment of trading book positions and for structured credit products – two areas where the crisis revealed critical weaknesses in the regulatory capital regime. Revisions to the capital requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives exposures as proposed by the Obama administration also strike me as appropriate.
Therefore, at times of such excessive domestic demand through fiscal dominance, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka intervened in the foreign exchange market to defend the exchange rate from depreciation. Although this was done with the good intention of maintaining macroeconomic stability in difficult times, experience 11  repeatedly showed that managing the exchange rate extensively was always associated with a substantial loss of limited international reserves followed by a large depreciation. The most recent of such events were in 2011/2012 and 2015. During the 2011/2012 episode, the Central Bank supplied US dollars 4.2 billion to the market on a net basis, while the Central Bank supplied US dollars 3.2 billion to the market on a net basis during the year 2015. In spite of these considerable losses of reserves, the rupee depreciated against the US dollar by 13.5 per cent by the end of the 2011/2012 episode and by 9.0 per cent during 2015. Since then, the Central Bank has explicitly announced that international reserves will not be used to defend an overvalued exchange rate. Instead, the Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange market will aim to buildup international reserves. So far during 2017, the Central Bank has been able to purchase over US dollars 1.3 billion from the market on a net basis for this purpose, and improved market confidence is shown by the limited depreciation of the currency this year.

It has been the endeavour of this report to propose a type of central bank which, with proper skill and understanding in its management, will establish monetary conditions in Ceylon that may make possible, as never before, the fuller use of the nation’s human and material resources and a rising standard of comfort for all.” History has judged us before! I will leave it up to you to judge us in future as well! Bibliography Bernanke Ben S. and Michael Woodford (eds), The Inflation Targeting Debate. Cambridge Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles, 2005. Bernanke, Ben S., Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Adam S. Posen (eds), Inflation Targeting. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001. Blinder, Alan, Central Banking in Theory and Practice, Cambridge Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 1996. Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 40th Anniversary Commemorative Volume of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 1950-1990. Colombo: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 1990. Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 60th Anniversary Commemorative Volume of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 1950-2010. Colombo: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2011. Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Annual Report. Various Years. Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Road Map: Monetary and Financial Sector Policies, Various years. Colombage, Sirimevan, The Political Economy of Central Banking in Sri Lanka. Prof. H. A. de S. Gunasekera Memorial Oration, University of Peradeniya, October 2017. 23  Government of Ceylon, Sessional Paper XIV: Report on the Establishment of a Central Bank for Ceylon (Exter Report). 1949.
You must re-evaluate the securities’ portfolio quality, in particular that in foreign currency, in order to attain the optimum characteristics of safety and tradability. In addition, the portfolio of placements in foreign currency in the form of deposits or related products with international financial institutions should have as its main objective the safety of the investment and the adequacy of maturity term. In a broader context, you should reassess the adequacy of certain indicators’ level in terms of differences in maturity terms and the type of currency of assets and liabilities. Assets’ quality, which is mainly affected by the quality of loan portfolio, remains a constant risk to the banking business in general. The reduced quality of assets does not only impair the institution’s income, but also harms its liquidity position. In the case of the Albanian banking sector, the loan portfolio quality has been decreasing, although at gradual rates, and the situation is presented as entirely manageable. The rapid growth of credit and the challenges certain sectors of the economy that have been lent significantly may be faced with, are factors that will continue to exert pressure on the loan quality in the near future. Hence, it is crucial for you to implement a policy of rapid detection of non-performing loans and promptly create reserve funds. It is for this reason that the Bank of Albania will increase the frequency of controls and the efficiency in monitoring and checking this process.

Should this happen, the MAS will take tough enforcement actions for breaches of our regulatory requirements. Where laws are broken, we will also not hesitate to refer these to the law enforcement agencies for investigation and prosecution. 23. Last year, we announced the centralization of our enforcement function into a single department. The team in our Enforcement Department will deepen our capabilities in investigative work that were previously undertaken by prudential supervisors. A centralised enforcement function in MAS will also allow us to take a holistic approach to “follow the funds” should these cut across different types of entities in our financial sector. 24. Let me now highlight the fourth key element of our AML/CFT framework: International Cooperation and Partnerships. 25. I have mentioned Singapore’s commitment to the international efforts to combat ML/TF risks. We fully support the important work of various international organisations including the FATF. In addition, it is important to have close supervisory co-operation between financial regulators and we hope to expand on our supervisory cooperation network. Another area which we will strengthen is our partnership with the financial industry. 26. While law enforcement and regulatory authorities have wide powers, the financial industry has an “on the ground” vantage point with front-line knowledge of business and clients. It is hence advantageous to adopt a collaborative “eco-system” approach to holistically deal with 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  ML/TF risks. Such a partnership should be as inclusive as practicable – involving law enforcement agencies, regulator and the industry.
It was introduced to the economic forecasting literature by Robertson, Tallman, and Whiteman (2005), and used more recently by Altavilla, Giacomini, and Costantini (2014), among others. So, what do the tilted survey distributions look like, and how large are the discrepancies with the original probability distributions? Slide 13 shows the results for year-end 2018 using two survey dates: December, shown in the left panel, and January, in the right. For each panel, the red line shows the probability distribution averaged across respondents. The vertical gold and gray lines show the survey-implied mean and the market-implied value for the policy rate, respectively. The blue line shows the tilted distribution.54 We see that the amount of tilting required for the January survey is very small in comparison to that needed for the December survey. For December, the tilted distributions are very different from the original distributions, with the probabilities in the lowest bin roughly tripling. How do we interpret the difference between the original survey distribution and the tilted distribution? If we assume that the marginal investor and the average survey respondent share the same probability distribution, this difference loosely captures the additional premium or discount associated with future interest rate outcomes. Under this interpretation, the cost of insuring against low policy rate outcomes fell from December to January, because less tilting is required in January than in December, a conclusion consistent with the change in estimated model-based risk premia.

Encik Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya: Towards a more inclusive financial system Speech by Mr Encik Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the OKU Awareness Programm “Towards a More Inclusive Financial System”, Kuala Lumpur, 26 May 2015. *  *  *  Bridging the understanding on the needs of OKUs and preparing for the changing landscape due to higher expectation and enhanced legislation As the Malaysian financial sector matures and with the long term vision for an inclusive financial system, today’s program with the objective of enhancing awareness and understanding of the rights and requirements of the community of the OKU and how the financial industry could serve them better, would mark the beginning of this important journey at industry wide level. As mentioned by Yang Berhormat Senator Puan Bathmavathi earlier, currently there are about 338,000 registered OKU in Malaysia or 1.1% of Malaysia’s total population. While the official data may be small, the actual number of Malaysians with disabilities is deemed to be more than what is reported. In addition, this number will increase as more Malaysians may fall into this category with the ageing process, becoming casualties of accidents and those suffering from chronic diseases.
2  BIS Review 47/2007  In the services sector, we have strengthened the key areas of tourism, healthcare, education and financial services. We have been focusing efforts to become an international fund management and wealth management centre. More financial institutions are using Singapore as a regional hub to conduct their investment activities. Singapore’s asset management industry has continued to grow, with assets under management surpassing $ billion. This is complemented by the presence of an active financial research community. Singapore is also a hub for innovative equity products, including REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts), Business Trusts, derivatives and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Singapore currently has 16 listed REITs and 5 listed Business Trusts with a total market capitalisation of about $ billion. Given the huge developments taking place in Asia, more foreign capital will be required and Singapore could be the hub to raise capital for Asian real estate and infrastructure players. We are mindful of rising business costs. Office rental has gone up because of the spurt in demand. It should stabilize as more office space becomes available in the next few years. This year we have cut our corporate tax rates to 18%. I can assure you that our corporate tax rates will always be competitive. Talent, not just banks and investment houses, are drawn to a place where the living environment is clean, green, safe and buzzing with cultural vibrancy and business excitement.

With further harmonisation of rules and regulations and increasing capital market linkages, we look forward to the deepening of ASEAN market liquidity. As financial and capital markets in the region become more integrated, there will be seamless flows of investments and capital. ASEAN has also made a strategic decision to strengthen its organisation politically. ASEAN is finalising a Charter that will lay out a bold and visionary future for ASEAN. It will also provide an institutional framework for the grouping and transform it into a more effective and efficient rules-based organisation. The Charter will be signed at the Singapore Summit in November. Singapore – a global city As for developments in Singapore, we have used the last 10 years to remake ourselves, strengthen our competitiveness and expand our economic space. We have also continued with efforts to enhance Singapore’s position as a gateway to Asia by transforming Singapore into a global city. We have enlarged our economic space by aggressively pursuing FTAs. We have concluded 11, including with the US, India, Japan, South Korea and Australia. We are negotiating 11 more FTAs, including one with China. We have progressively restructured and diversified our economy. Manufacturing will continue to play a key role but we are also moving into more technology- and knowledge-intensive manufacturing. Fostering world-class scientific research and strengthening Singapore’s attractiveness as an R&D (Research and Development) hub is a key priority. More of Singapore’s growth will come from innovation and knowledge.
Liquidity 29 These problems of incomplete information, and misaligned incentives have had a major impact on the market liquidity of innovative financial instruments. 30 As described above, misaligned incentives in origination and distribution allowed the provision of sub-prime mortgages to households with very little prospect of repayment and significant vulnerability to modest changes in economic circumstances. So any investor trying to estimate the distribution of likely future delinquency rates amongst sub-prime borrowers would not only have to consider the range of macroeconomic outcomes but also how much this effect would be amplified by poor credit risk screening. This would be an extremely difficult variable to quantify. But because of the sensitivity of complex securities to small changes in loss rates, differing judgements about the quality of risk screening could make a material difference to the value of the instrument. The recognition that risk screening and the availability and quality of information on the performance of complex products was significantly weaker than previously anticipated, as for example investors lost confidence in the quality of credit ratings, led to a substantial increase in the risk premium required to hold such assets. These effects made the valuation of assets extremely uncertain and contributed to the rapid evaporation of secondary market liquidity. 31 There is also an important and fundamental tension between the capability of financial engineering to tailor financial products to meet individual investor demand more effectively and secondary market liquidity.

Section 4 highlights the  1  “Innovation and Integration in Financial Markets and the Implications for Financial Stability”, Rob Hamilton, Nigel Jenkinson and Adrian Penalver, pp. 226-250, The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System, eds Christopher Kent and Jeremy Lawson, Reserve Bank of Australia, November 2007. 2  See for example, the Bank of England Financial Stability Report, October 2007 and the Bank of England Financial Stability Report, April 2008. 3  See for example World Finance and Risk Management, delivered at Lancaster House 25 September 2002. 4  Referring to derivatives in the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2002 Annual Report. BIS Review 93/2008  1  obstacles to fulfilment of that vision given the imperfections in financial markets. Lessons for the future and possible policy responses are discussed in Section 5, while Section 6 concludes. Section 2: Trends in financial innovation 5 The pace of change in financial markets in recent years is truly remarkable. A few statistics help to illustrate this point and set the scene: •  The outstanding value of interest rate swaps and other derivatives reached almost $ trillion or some 11 times annual global GDP by the end of 2007, according to the BIS. Ten years ago the value was around $ trillion (2 ½ times GDP) (Chart 1). The global derivatives market expanded almost 50% during 2007.
Figure 2: Processed and Unprocessed Food Prices (Annual Percentage Change) Processed Food  25  Unprocessed Food 20 15 10 5  06.08  05.08  04.08  03.08  02.08  01.08  12.07  11.07  10.07  09.07  08.07  07.07  06.07  0  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. 2  BIS Review 100/2008  Developments in energy prices have been the other major factor driving inflation in the second quarter (Figure 3). Soaring oil prices continued to lead to significant hikes in the prices of domestic fuel products, also putting pressure on housing utilities such as electricity and natural gas. Figure 3: Energy Prices (Quarterly Percentage Change, Percentage Point Contribution) 10  Fuel (Percentage point contribution)  8  Energy for housing (Percentage point contribution) Energy (3-Month percentage change)  6 4 2 0  08-II  08-I  07-IV  07-III  07-II  07-I  06-IV  06-III  06-II  -2  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. Services inflation displayed a limited rise in the first half of 2008. Food and energy prices continued to exert upward pressures on the prices of catering and transport services. Rents and other services, on the other hand, continued to decelerate (Figure 4). Figure 4: Subcomponents of Services Index (First Half Cumulative Percentage Change) 12  2006-2007 Average  10  2008  8 6 4 2 0 Services  Rent  Transport Services  Restaurants and Hotels  Other Services  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT.

The fact that the US has enjoyed an unparalleled period of strong and continuous growth during the nineties owes a great deal, of course, to the policies of the US authorities. They have had to steer a difficult path between maintaining conditions conducive to growth while not being seen to underwrite the risks of "irrational exuberance" in security markets or lax lending standards by banks. This balance became especially difficult to strike towards the end of last year in the face of sharply lower corporate earnings projections and widening spreads on higher risk borrowings. As some lower-rated companies found access to the capital markets increasingly difficult, and as banks tightened credit standards, liquidity fears for some borrowers intensified. These factors, together with a sharp downturn in business optimism and mixed economic data, added to growing fears of a recession this year. Such a climate of uncertainty calls for clear signals from the authorities and over the past two months the Fed has responded in a decisive fashion. The adjustment in the policy bias and recent cut in rates have increased the probability of a soft landing and will, from an international perspective, reduce the risk of a sharp reversal of capital flows into US markets. The combination of a slower growing - but still expanding - US economy and a weaker dollar should provide a more sustainable pattern of current accounts and capital flows, reducing the risk of instability in financial markets in both the US and abroad.