samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In any case, 2021 will not be able to make up for all of the downturn in 2020. I think the shape of the recovery will be somewhere between a V and a U, but we have to remember that everything will depend on the length of the economic shutdown imposed by the fight against the pandemic. Governments are implementing active fiscal policies to stop the crisis getting worse. In Spain, business associations are complaining that the tax payment schedule has remained the same, which could lead to liquidity problems. They are calling for tax deferrals and even exemptions. What is your opinion? First of all, it’s important to remember that the basis for the recovery will depend on successfully protecting the economy’s productive capacity. If this is achieved, economic activity will rebound more strongly. To answer your question: first you have to consider that firms will see a drastic fall in their revenue, so it’s essential that they receive relief from their tax burden. The State’s tax receipts will also fall dramatically. It’s important to come up with temporary plans to help firms, as has been done in the area of employment with the temporary layoffs [in Spanish: expedientes de regulación temporal, or ERTEs]. What is your opinion on the public loan guarantee programmes to enable the banking sector to finance firms with credit lines and loans? They are very important, of course. All countries have put in place loan guarantees for firms. This is a good thing.

Some are also calling for a government of national unity… I am simply suggesting that joint action by consensus would be the best approach to take for the Spanish economy. It is up to the elected representatives to decide on whether or not the best approach, within a framework of understanding, is to make an explicit pact or establish a certain type of government. What conditions are required to reach an understanding of this nature? I think the important thing is to establish a framework of mutual trust and loyalty between the government and the opposition; and that is a two-way street. Banks are in a difficult position: at a time when they still have not restored their business models after years of low interest rates, the current scenario has again been prolonged indefinitely. How do you think this will affect the sector? 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The banking sector is facing this situation from a much more robust position than ten years ago. It is true that it has profitability issues and the deep recession will affect its bottom line. But there are no solvency problems. The financial markets experienced some problems during the initial days of this crisis, but they were not caused by the banking sector. The situation has to a certain extent returned to normal, although not completely, while prices have partially recovered and volatility has eased.
In an environment of accommodative monetary policy, the swift and effective implementation of structural reforms, in line with the 2016 countryspecific recommendations recently approved by the European Council, will not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but will also make the euro area more 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  resilient to global shocks. Fiscal policies should also support the economic recovery, while remaining in compliance with the fiscal rules of the European Union. Full and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact over time and across countries is crucial to maintain confidence in the fiscal framework. At the same time, all countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies. We are now at your disposal for questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Exacerbating the downturn is the continued economic weakness in Japan, the second largest market in the region. Reflecting the weak external environment, export growth in many SEACEN economies has fallen sharply. This has also undermined domestic demand. Challenges for Asia Concerns over the slowing growth in the US and the much weaker Japanese economy have hit regional currencies. Since end-2000, regional currencies have seen higher volatility. While the greater flexibility of exchange rates has reduced the risk of large speculative attacks, such fluctuations are not without risk. The challenge facing policymakers is how to ensure the greater exchange rate flexibility does not lead to greater financial system fragility. Aside from macro-prudential risk, financial regulators also faced challenges arising from the rapid changes in the global financial landscape. In particular, advancement in technology, investors' demand for shareholder value and customers' demand for integrated financial supervision have accelerated consolidation and globalisation of financial institutions and markets. The boundaries of the banking, insurance and securities industries are less clearly defined. This calls for a more harmonised and integrated approach to supervision of the financial system. Besides co-ordinating among the different regulatory bodies to address unsupervised risks, overlaps and gaps in their regulatory framework, there may be a need to re-look the way national regulatory and supervisory authorities are organised, to create greater synergies and enhance efficiency. At the international level, efforts are underway to strengthen the architecture of the international financial system.
Monetary union raises many other institutional questions that I will not be taking up today. Not the least of these is relations with countries and organisations outside the European Union. Where, for instance, does the primary responsibility for the exchange rate lie in Europe and what about relations between euro area countries and the International Monetary Fund? I now want to hark back to the issues I touched on earlier: fiscal policy in relation to the business cycle, and how the labour market functions. How will these matters be handled in the system for economic policy decisions? Cyclical disparities and fiscal policy  BIS Review 50/1998  -7-  The past year has seen a general strengthening of economic activity in the EU area. This has helped improve government finances and provided better conditions in other respects for the start of monetary union. But it has been accompanied by increased cyclical disparities between the future euro countries. This is clear from a look at how observers have revised their growth predictions as compiled, for example, in “consensus forecasts”. A look at the euro countries divided into two groups with higher and lower predicted GDP growth, respectively, shows that in the past year the gap between these groups has widened. The same applies in terms of predicted inflation. One should not make too much of this; the differences have grown but are still small and assessments for 1999 suggest that they will narrow again. But the picture does illustrate a problem that will have to be addressed.

The Pact has been constructed with a view to generating so much pressure on Member States to put government finances in order that sanctions will never be necessary. A knotty problem when constructing the Pact was how to make the requirements sufficiently strict without placing undue restrictions on national fiscal policies. This is all the more important when monetary policy is no longer available at national level, so that the task of adjustment falls more heavily in practice on fiscal policy. OECD estimates indicate that in a “normal” economic downturn, the cyclical budget balance in EU countries weakens by 1-1.5 per cent of GDP. Some budgetary discretion is therefore needed so that there is a margin for automatic stabilisers to act when activity is falling. The conclusion is that the trade-off seems reasonable but the Pact does make it necessary to achieve a balanced budget or a surplus relatively soon. Under these circumstances, the Swedish government’s ambition to establish an annual budget surplus of 2 per cent over the business cycle is commendable. Fiscal policy accordingly faces new challenges and it is not all that easy to tell just what may happen. When monetary policy ceases to be a national instrument, fiscal policy will have to play a greater part in stabilisation policy.
Leasi Papali’i Scanlan: Financial inclusion and mobile banking in Samoa Address by Mr Leasi Papali’i Scanlan, Governor of the Central Bank of Samoa, at the official opening of the Workshop/Information Exchange on “Financial Inclusion and Mobile Banking in Samoa”, Apia, 20 January 2010. *  *  *  At the outset, I would like to thank all of you for accepting our invitation to participate in today’s Workshop on Mobile Money and Mobile Banking, which are two key strategies for implementing what is known as Financial Inclusion. I would also like to extend a warm welcome to our partners on financial inclusion in the Pacific, Mr. Tillman Bruett and Mr. Michael McCaffrey of the United Nations Capital Development Fund’s Pacific Financial Inclusion Program. As stated in our invitation letter, you have been identified as Individuals and Representatives of Organizations with the potential to make a significant contribution to financial inclusion and financial literacy; especially those of you with an interest in mobile telephones and financial services businesses in general. I trust that the free exchange of your valuable knowledge and experiences, will not only greatly benefit the other Participants of today’s Workshop but also Financial Inclusion (as a whole) in Samoa. In July 2009, I attended a Pacific Regional Meeting in Fiji to discuss the advent of Microfinance in the Pacific. At this Meeting, I was introduced to the concept of Financial Inclusion, and I was subsequently convinced of its relevance and importance to Samoa.

That’s why I think it was the right thing to remove a degree of monetary accommodation. And while things might change – they always do – we will continue to act in a way that ensures stable inflation over the medium term while still providing what support we can to jobs and economic activity. Thank you. 14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  14  References Beaudry, P. and Portier, F. (2006), ‘Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations’, American Economic Review, Vol. 96, No. 4. Broadbent, B. (2012), ‘Productivity and the allocation of resources’, Speech given at Durham Business School, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/speeches/2012/speech599.pdf Broadbent, B. (2017), ‘Brexit and the pound’, Speech given at Imperial College, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2017/speech969.pdf. Carroll, C. (2001), “A theory of the consumption function, with and without liquidity constraints”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 3. Deaton, A. (1992), Understanding consumption, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Di Pace, F., King, P. and Theodoridis K. (2017), ‘Assessing the effects of supple side news in a DSGE model estimated for the UK’, mimeo. Kamber, G., Theodoridis, K. and Thoenissen, C. (2017), ‘News-driven business cycles in small open economies, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 105. Kurmann, A. and Otrok, C. (2013), ‘News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates’, American Economic Review, Vol. 103, No. 6. 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15
To develop a more complete view of the impact of financial market developments on bank balance sheets, financing conditions and money and credit growth, further analysis will be required. The ECB’s Governing Council stands ready to counter upside risks to price stability, in line with its mandate. Against this background, on 6 December 2007 we decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The Governing Council will monitor very closely all developments. In particular, as I said on behalf of the Governing Council after our last meeting, for the recent increase in inflation to remain temporary, it is essential that the price and wage-setting behaviour remains unaffected by current inflation rates, so as to avoid the emergence of second-round effects. By acting in a firm and timely manner on the basis of its assessment, the Governing Council will ensure that such second-round effects and risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise. To firmly anchor inflation expectations in line with price stability is even more important at times of financial market volatility and increased uncertainty. In this respect, the Governing Council has decided to continue to pay great attention to financial market developments. Liquidity operations Ladies and gentlemen, once the Governing Council has defined the monetary policy stance necessary for maintaining price stability in the medium term, in line with its mandate as defined by the Treaty, the ECB has the responsibility to also ensure the smooth functioning of the segment of the money market that we influence.

I should like to underline – once again – that these two responsibilities are clearly distinct and should not be mixed. Since early August last year, tensions have been observed in money markets and during the last months banks expressed particular concerns about their liquidity needs over the yearend. The year-end period is traditionally a period of scarce liquidity, as market activity is subdued and banks are preparing their year-end balance sheets. In its open market operations, the ECB therefore pursued its endeavour to contribute to the smooth functioning of the euro money market. In early August, we responded to the sudden  2  BIS Review 3/2008  upward pressures on the overnight interest rate by lending significant amounts of liquidity through overnight fine-tuning operations. We also carried out, and later renewed, two supplementary longer-term refinancing operations in order to reduce banks’ concerns over their longer-term funding during a period when the longer-term repo and deposit markets turned illiquid. In the main refinancing operations the ECB has allotted larger amounts of liquidity than under normal circumstances with an aim to limit the volatility of very short term rates around the ECB’s minimum bid rate. These large amounts of liquidity have always been absorbed later on during the maintenance period, so that the ECB has only provided banks with the liquidity needed for the fulfilment of their reserve requirements on average over the maintenance periods. Let me also underline that we only provide such operations against solid collateral, as always.
Rather, recognise that all leadership is temporary, that you will be custodians of your institutions and keepers of their flames. And if possible, although it’s a bit late for me, take a cue from Cincinnatus and Washington, and leave before you are asked. Thank you. 25  As Haidt wrote, “People bind themselves into political teams that share moral narratives. Once they accept a particular narrative, they become blind to alternative models.” See Haidt, J (2012) p.20 26 See www.johnkay.com 27 Haidt, J (2012) p.365 28 As quoted in Barton, D (2017) 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  References Barton, D (2017) In the Arena: Leadership in an Age of Disruption Bernanke, B (2015) The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and its Aftermath, W. W. Norton & Company. Big Innovation Centre (2016) The Purposeful Company Interim Report Buckingham, M and Coffman, C (2016) First, Break All The Rules: What the World's Greatest Managers Do Differently: Gallup Press. Carney, M (2015), Speech at Lloyd’s of London ‘Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon – climate change and financial stability’ Carney, M (2016), Roscoe Lecture, Liverpool John Moores University ‘The Spectre of Monetarism’ Carney, M (2017a), Remarks at Thomson Reuters, ‘The high road to a responsible, open financial system’ Carney, M (2017b), Remarks at the Banking Standards Board Panel ‘Worthy of trust? Law, ethics and culture in banking’ Geithner, T (2014) Stress Test. Random House Haidt, J (2012) The Righteous Mind. Vintage Books.

An organisation’s purpose can be for the client; such as Amazon’s goal ‘To be earth’s most customer-centric company’; or the greater good, such as the World Bank’s mission to ‘End extreme poverty’, and the Bank of England’s to ‘Promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability’. The leader’s job is to ensure that the purpose of their organisation is always present and anchors its goals, values, and strategy. Like diversity, purpose is not a “nice to have”. Evidence shows that purposeful companies have higher employee engagement, greater customer satisfaction, tighter supplier linkages and better environmental stewardship. The pay-offs to purposeful business are superior share price performance, better operational performance, lower costs of capital, smaller regulatory fines and greater resilience in the face of shocks. 10  Always remember that, as leaders, you will be stewards of the purpose of your organisations. In this sense, leadership is the acceptance of responsibility rather than the assumption of power. True leadership is not an end in itself but rather as a means to accomplishing a worthwhile goal. These are lessons that some in financial services have had to re-learn in recent years. An industry of the scale and importance of finance needs social capital as well as economic capital in order to operate, innovate and grow. To maintain social capital, finance ultimately needs to be seen as a vocation, an activity with high ethical standards, which in turn conveys certain responsibilities.
W A Wijewardena: Auditing the key policy functions of a central bank – views from the top Keynote address by Mr W A Wijewardena, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the Seminar on “Effective Internal Audit for Central Banks”, Windsor, UK, 30 April 2009. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be construed as those representing the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. *  *  *  The primary objective of a central bank is to stabilise the value of its currency and continue to maintain that stability to facilitate long term economic growth. There could be other ancillary objectives assigned to a central bank, such as providing liquidity to the government to bridge its revenue and expenditure flows or refinancing banks’ loans to priority sectors. But the primary objective of a central bank takes precedence over any such ancillary objective and, if there is a conflict between the two, a central bank should always give priority to its primary objective 1 . This is because the success or failure of a central bank is gauged by its attainment of the primary objective and not the ancillary objectives. Even if a central bank has done well in realising its ancillary objectives, but failed in the primary objective, then, that central bank is deemed to have failed in its operations.

Unless the country makes a surplus in its current account, the payment for imports has to be made either through capital inflows (both debt capital and non-debt capital) or running down the existing foreign reserves. Both generate long term balance of payments problems and exert pressure on the exchange rate to depreciate. Thus, the irresponsible use of the discretionary power of a central bank to acquire assets by creating a currency liability will lead to a depreciation of both the domestic value of its currency (domestic inflation) and the external value of its currency (continuous depreciation of the exchange rate). However, the fall in the external value of the currency is linked to, and preceded by, a fall in the domestic value. In other words, depreciating exchange rates are an effect and not the cause of domestic inflation. Hence, the continuous domestic inflation is a sign of a central bank’s failing to fulfil its primary obligation to the community. The new role of auditors of a central bank The central bank auditors, both internal and external, have for long confined themselves to the financial type of auditing of the operations of a central bank. The objective of this auditing is to identify whether a central bank has complied with the set-financial rules and procedures, whether there are irregularities or malpractices in payments or recording transactions or whether frauds have taken place in the operations of a central bank.
The Bank went 150 years without employing any women at all. When they did, it was to do the work of 15–18 year old boys, sorting and listing returned notes. On getting married, women at the Bank were required to resign their position. The Bank was “Old Lady” by name but “Young Lady” by nature. Cunliffe’s greatest achievement was his contribution to solving the financial panic of 1914. On Friday 24 July, the City woke to the threat of war as Austria made an ultimatum to Serbia. There was a worldwide scramble for the safety of cash. Mass-selling led to stock markets closing in Europe, then New York, then Australia. London was not exempt. By 31 July, the London Stock Exchange had closed for the first time in its near 150-year history. Panic soon spread to the money markets, sucking liquidity and  4  Roberts and Kynaston (1995). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  life out of the financial system. Unable to finance themselves, lending by the banks began to drain away, starving the economy of credit and causing it too to crater. This was truly a credit crunch. Cunliffe’s plan, hatched with the Treasury, was to lift the liquidity burden on the banks by purchasing the IOUs they were holding from overseas borrowers which had become understandably illiquid on the outbreak of war.

Norman T L Chan: A fascinating train journey Speech by Mr Norman T L Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the CUHK (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) Business School Master Degree Graduation Ceremony 2015, Hong Kong, 21 November 2015. *  *  *  Professor Michael Hui, Professor Kalok Chan, parents, graduates, ladies and gentlemen: 1. It is a great honour to be invited to attend today’s graduation ceremony. It is also a great pleasure to be back to CUHK, where I spent the most beautiful part of my life as a student. There were so many fond memories and I cannot tell you how much I have missed my campus life even though I have graduated for nearly 40 years. 2. My fellow graduates, today is a memorable and joyful occasion not only for you, but also for your parents, your family, your loved ones and your friends. You have all worked very hard and gone through many rounds of examinations and challenges before you can be here today on this occasion. You must feel very proud and wish to tell everybody that “I have made it”. My heartfelt congratulations to you all: you have made it. You have received a master degree that provides you with the knowledge and skills that are badly needed and sought after in the modern era of business and finance.