samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Given our choice of the level for the key policy rate, the deviation from the inflation target will be somewhat larger and economic developments somewhat weaker in the short term than would otherwise have been the case. This cost can be regarded as an insurance premium against future adverse outcomes. The gains that we can achieve are that a downturn will be less pronounced should the economy be exposed to negative shocks. In addition, we can reduce the probability that imbalances trigger a crisis. The expected path for inflation and output becomes more stable. The size of the gains is uncertain. Developments in debt and house prices depend on a number of factors in addition to the interest rate. The extent to which the interest rate influences the build-up of imbalances may thus change from one situation to another. Even in retrospect it will be difficult to measure the gains. The size of the insurance premium will also vary. When inflation has strayed far from the target, the prospect of a further deviation will be given more weight than when inflation is close to the target. It is generally agreed among central banks that monetary policy must in certain situations take into account the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. At the same time, Norges Bank has been one of few central banks where this consideration has played a clear role in interest rate setting in recent years.

Cybersecurity is the very foundation of modern banking and without it there is no point for us to boast Hong Kong as a world class international financial centre. While banks in Hong Kong have so far had very few incidents of serious cyber attacks, there is no place for complacency if we wish to maintain Hong Kong’s competitive edge as the preferred financial hub in Asia. In this connection, the HKMA has earlier this year set up a new Fintech Facilitation Office, which has taken cybersecurity as its top priority mission. Having worked very closely with the banking industry and other stakeholders, I am very pleased to announce today that the HKMA has decided to launch for the banking system a “Cybersecurity Fortification Initiative”, which is known as “CFI” in short. The CFI consists of three pillars: (a)  a Cyber Resilience Assessment Framework;  (b)  a Professional Development Programme; and  (c)  a Cyber Intelligence Sharing Platform. Let me elaborate on these three pillars. Cyber resilience assessment framework 5. We have about 200 banks in Hong Kong and they have a very diverse range of business models with understandably very different channels and modes of service delivery. Depending on the ways and technology platforms in which their businesses are conducted and delivered, the risk or vulnerability to potential cyber attacks varies from bank to bank. Needless to say, the volume and value of banking transactions conducted through the cyber world also matter a great deal.
•  They will enable us to maximise the benefits of digital and mobile technologies – reap enormous cost efficiencies and extend our reach and understanding. And it is this spirit of openness and collaboration in innovation that will help create a Smart Financial Centre. We have only just begun. Thank you. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

To this end, the functions of the Asian office have evolved and expanded over time – from organisation of meetings and seminars to conducting research, to providing dealing and banking services. And the office has grown from a start-up staff of six to its current 33. We are celebrating this occasion in this lovely restaurant above the Star Ferry – which is an icon in Hong Kong and a symbol of quality and value-for-money service. The BIS Asian office is also a "STAR" entity. The word "STAR" has been chosen carefully and with good reason – each letter of the word symbolises and embodies the excellence of BIS' activities: S:  Surveillance – The Asian office is clearly a star performer in its surveillance work on regional economic and financial developments. This is self-evident from reading the background notes prepared on the region for various BIS and regional central bank meetings. T:  Topical studies and research – The Asian office, with its pool of economists and financial experts, is well placed to conduct research. Under the auspices of the Asian research programme initiated in 2006, many topics that are of interest and relevance to Asian central banks have been, and continue to be, explored and developed. The BIS has made important contributions in this area, with its research providing useful information and insight for policymakers in the region.
If the banking industry is also able to agree on an adequate loss-sharing agreement, we assume that the remaining danger of systemic risk in this part of the payment system. Gross settlements in NBO Turnover through gross settlements in NBO fluctuates between NOK 100bn and NOK 200bn per day, which is by far the largest portion of the settlement. Since it is a gross settlement, risk would be expected to be minimal or non-existent. Such is not the case, however. Liquidity problems can arise as a result of such factors as technical failure at one or several banks – i.e. operational risk. We have already experienced such situations and seen that they can quickly bring considerable liquidity strains upon other NBO participants. Norges Bank is actively analysing and improving routines associated with such situations in connection with preparations for the year 2000. This work will enable us to be well prepared if such unforeseen situations should arise after the turn of the century. Another risk-creating factor in connection with gross settlement is the extended use of early crediting. Relevant information is lacking, but is our impression that this practice is fairly widespread. The possibility of early crediting is, as is well known, connected to the information exchange model used in the Norwegian payment system (see my previous comments on so-called “T-copying”). This practice - which, by the way, is not in accordance with international recommendations - can result in the payee bank coming into a position of non-controlled exposure in relation to the payer bank.

The new syllabus was approved, by the FSTEP Steering Committee on June 28, 2010. Under the revised syllabus, the programme design and delivery will be more balanced between classroom-lectures and experiential learning in the form of case studies, role plays and simulations. This methodology is better suited for adult learning and shift somewhat the responsibility of learning to the trainees. With this in mind, the content and details of the programme will be regularly updated and align with the progressive development of the financial industry. It will keep participants abreast with market needs in this age of advance technology and knowledge. As the financial services industry matures and the lines between businesses become even more blur, the  BIS Review 100/2010  1  skills and talents needed to navigate the industry becomes even more diverse and demanding. The change in syllabus and other enhancements will differentiate FSTEP from other training programmes offered by the financial institutions and training institutes. So I don’t expect FSTEP syllabus to converge with the training programmes offered by individual financial institution. In order to ensure FSTEP secures a constant flow of quality graduates from both local and foreign institutes of higher learning to its training programme, initiatives have been mooted by FSTEP to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with all public universities and a few reputable private universities in Malaysia to instill the way for greater cooperation and collaboration in matters of mutual interest and benefit.
Memo to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,  December 14, 2000. 5 The first instance was the May 2001 Bluebook. 6 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economics Discussion  Paper Number 2001-56. November 2001. 7 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Review of Economics and Statistics 85, no.4 (November 2003): 1063-70. 8 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux," Business Economics 51, no. 2 (April 2016): pp. 57-67. 9 Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams, "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants," Journal of International  Economics 108 (May 2017): S59-S75. 10 These issues are discussed in detail in "Adapting the Laubach and Williams and Holston, Laubach, and Williams Models to the COVID-19 Pandemic," and "Measuring the  Natural Rate of Interest After COVID-19," by Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams. 11 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest. 12 Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. 13 Note that we no longer produce HLW estimates for the United Kingdom because the model does not provide a good fit for the data. The estimates for the UK were highly  imprecise even before the pandemic and the subsequent data has exacerbated this problem. 14 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams.

I should note that this is described in detail in the paper, "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest After COVID-19," that was posted this morning on the New York Fed's r-star web page. First, we incorporated an additional persistent supply shock related to the effects of the pandemic that directly reduce the economy's potential. We measure this shock using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index for each economy.12 This index aggregates measures of government containment and shutdown policies. Because the index is no longer being produced, we assume that in each case, it declines smoothly to zero over 2023-24. Second, we use a statistical procedure that accounts for outliers in the model's estimation. Specifically, from the second quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2022, we estimate a time-varying process for the variance of the shocks hitting the economy. This procedure places a lower weight on periods when there are very large outliers. Our results show that outliers are particularly large in 2020, as seen in Figure 2. By comparison, the estimated magnitude of outliers is relatively modest in 2021 and 2022. Starting in 2023, we assume that the distribution of shocks is no longer affected by the pandemic. Letting the Data Speak  Estimation of the modified model reveals three key findings. First, the modified estimation procedure yields results that are overall quite similar to those from the original model during the pre-pandemic period. Second, the current estimates of r-star are similar to those estimated directly before the pandemic.
For the Riksbank’s part, this means that we need to continue our work on modernising our money so that it is better suited to a digital economy, that is, to continue our work with the e-krona. We also need to update the infrastructure for payments. One should not have to wait several days for a payment to be executed. We will therefore offer what are known as ‘instant payments’, that is, payments that are executed directly, 24/7. We also need to invest more resources in cyber security and crisis preparedness so that the payment system can withstand shocks. It is important not least to continue the international collaboration we have with other central banks and with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). There we are working on simplifying cross-currency payments and analysing digital central bank money (also known as CBDC, Central Bank Digital Currency). It is therefore very pleasing that the BIS’ new Innovation Hub will soon open in Stockholm. These hubs are a means of ensuring that the central banks have good cooperation with one another and keep up to date with the rapid technological developments currently taking place. New participants entering the payment market This development is clearly visible in the payment market. New technology and new legislation has made it easier for other types of company than banks to compete in mediating payments. Consumption patterns are also changing, for instance, in that it is becoming increasingly common to shop online rather than in physical shops.

But in another sense one can say that this is not the case, if the Riksbank – as an independent central bank – says that the purchases are made for monetary policy purposes. Monetary financing does not entail the purchases themselves. Under certain circumstances, purchases of government bonds can be monetary financing, but under other circumstances they are not. This is what makes it difficult to define the concept. It is important to understand that the Riksbank's government bond purchases do not mean that the state's costs of issuing bonds disappear. If the Riksbank purchases some of the government bond stock, then part of the state’s debt will be financed by private agents and another part by the Riksbank with central bank reserves. The state costs of the private part of the debt is the yield on the government bonds. The cost for the part the Riksbank has purchased is different however, and not as obvious. The state’s interest payments on the government bonds purchases by the Riksbank fall to the Riksbank. But the Riksbank is a public authority whose income and expenditure is a part of the state's total budget constraint. The interest the state pays to the Riksbank in other words falls to the state itself, the net cost to the state is therefore zero. However, the Riksbank pays interest – that is, the policy rate – on the central bank reserves that have financed the government bond purchases.
A growing number of these jobs are related to exports of oil extraction equipment. The oil and gas industry has played a decisive role in the strong growth of the Norwegian economy over the past 40 years. The past 15 years stand out in particular. But this dependence on oil has also made the Norwegian economy vulnerable to changes in oil prices or a decline in petroleum revenues. Chart: High wage growth (not incl. the krone depreciation over the past two years) High domestic labour costs have also increased the Norwegian economy’s vulnerability. The cost level in the Norwegian business sector has increased sharply in comparison with our trading partners. A rise is followed by a fall, and oil prices have fallen by more than half since last summer. As activity and earnings from the petroleum sector decline, oil service companies must seek entry into other markets. With a high domestic cost level, that task may prove demanding. Chart: Fall in petroleum investment A decline in activity on the Norwegian continental shelf has long been anticipated. The fall in oil prices has accelerated and amplified an announced decline in activity. Norwegian exports to other oil-producing nations are also in decline. This does not mean that the oil age is now nearing an end. Nearly half of known oil and gas reserves on the Norwegian continental shelf have not yet been extracted2. Large new discoveries have been made over the past few years and the Norwegian oil service industry is still receiving new orders.

Since last November, the three-month Libor had been held at the desired level of 0.25%. However, from mid-May it began sinking rapidly and is currently well below that level. The fall in the rate is a sign that the banking system is currently holding a very large amount of liquidity. My colleague, Jean-Pierre Danthine, will talk about this in greater detail. Interest rates on the capital market have also fallen. In June, yields on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds fell to a record level. The low capital market interest rates reflect a higher demand for Swiss government bonds. In addition, long-term inflation expectations continue to be firmly anchored. Private companies are also benefiting from low interest rates on capital markets. Credit risk premia have fallen further and rates of interest on bank loans are also at a very low level. Since the last monetary policy assessment, the Swiss franc has appreciated against the euro. It has simultaneously depreciated against the US dollar. As a result, the trade-weighted external value of the Swiss franc has only slightly increased. The expansionary monetary policy is also reflected in the monetary aggregates. Thus, the monetary base rose to a record CHF 128.6 billion in May, and growth of the monetary aggregates is continuing at a high level. For example, M2 was growing at 10.2% in May and M3 at 7.1%. Credit growth also increased further. After slowing to 2.7% in September 2009, the rate of growth increased to 4.1% in April.
The debate over the use of personal information in the area of payment services has heightened with  6/7  the new Directive known as PSD2, which institutionalises the so-called TPP (Third Party Providers). TPP encompass “payment initiation service providers” and “account information service providers”. The former offer an alternative to the use of cards when making electronic purchase payments. The latter provide consolidated information on the status of the various accounts the customer has with entities, thereby facilitating financial planning. Payments account holders are entitled to authorise these third party providers to order payments on their behalf and/or to consult information associated with their accounts. Against this background, and irrespective of the usefulness of these services, it is important that customers should strive to understand the real scope of the authorisation granted, which may entail access to their account by a third party on the same footing as if it were the customers themselves accessing the account. Faced with risks such as the foregoing, magnified by the development of new technologies, I believe that financial education has a role to play. It may help, for example, make people aware of the change in reality that the digital arrangement of agreements entails or increase the digital competences of the public at large. The Financial Education Plan Mindful of the foregoing, the Banco de España and the CNMV continue working on their commitment to financial education through the Financial Education Plan.

But price controls cannot solve the issue of scarcity, which is often the main cause of high prices. The main disadvantage of capping prices is that price ceilings do not guide consumers to reduce their consumption of the scarce product. This has been the problem with price caps for energy, as it does not encourage consumers to use energy more efficiently, and nor do caps offer producers any incentive to increase supply. The alternative is targeted income support measures, which allow the burden of higher energy costs to be shared within a society. Unlike price controls, these measures preserve price signals and help to steer both demand and supply towards a new equilibrium. The main concern with income support is that it is more difficult to manage. How target groups are selected is a highly political issue and any such measures are an additional fiscal cost, so they need to be temporary and well targeted. In summary Headline inflation is falling in the euro area, but it still remains too far above the ECB's target of two per cent. That measures of underlying inflation are still very high is even more worrisome, as it indicates a presence of more persistent inflationary forces that can be difficult to break. The differences in inflation rates between the member states of the euro area have largely been driven by energy prices and the policy measures taken by governments, and they remain wide.
Such changes in the European financial scene have significantly improved the efficiency of capital allocation. The euro contributes to enabling European savers to easily select the most efficient investments. It also helps the productive sector and companies to achieve significant economies of scale, enhances the transparency of the market and boosts competition and innovation to the benefit of consumers. Moreover, the pace of internationalisation of the euro area economy has been further spurred by the euro. Allow me to give just one example, the level of French accumulated foreign direct investment abroad since 1999 has been of the order of magnitude of EUR 380 billion (a pace four times as rapidly as before the setting-up of the euro, and the same order of magnitude as the United States’ FDI abroad). The international role of the euro The euro has become a major currency in the world. As an official reserve currency, it is the second most widely used. As a bond issuance currency, according to the most recent statistics from the BIS, the euro has played a substantial role since the end of 1998 and accounted for around 35% of total issuance in 2001. The share of the euro in international bank assets has also increased significantly over the past two years. Furthermore, the euro constitutes a major reference currency for exchange rate regimes adopted by third countries. Over 50 countries in the world, mainly in Europe and Africa, are managing exchange rate arrangements that include a reference to the euro.

All regions of the country have reported an increase in unemployment in the past year, although in Central Norway the increase has been relatively low. This is probably related to the industry structure with a relatively high share of employees in the public service sector. Reports from the regional network indicate that employment in the public sector will remain more or less constant in the period ahead, while there are indications of growth in some private business sectors. The start-up of Rica Nidelven Hotel generated 100 new jobs but also keener competition in Trondheim’s hotel industry. As I mentioned earlier, this snapshot report on the current situation in this part of the country and similar reports from the other regions provide information that is important to interest rate setting. Interest rates were left unchanged at Norges Bank’s Executive Board meeting on 29 October. The sight deposit rate therefore remains at 2.5 per cent. According to Norges Bank’s assessment, with an interest rate of 2.5 per cent, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be higher than 2½ per cent is the same as the probability that it will be lower. By using a time horizon of two years when we set interest rates, monetary policy contributes to stabilising output. The choice of this horizon prevents monetary policy from contributing to unnecessary volatility in the economy. 8  BIS Review 50/2003