samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It must be doubtful if these very large depreciations are necessary for correcting the imbalances in these economies. There are economic and financial problems that needed to be put right, but the plunge in their currencies and asset markets seems excessive. I believe the people of Hong Kong realize this. They realize that the implications for Hong Kong of a break in the linked exchange rate system are clearly a lot worse than the rather short term pain that they have had to bear and which is now hopefully easing. By contrast, the pain of economic adjustment that some of the Asian economies have to go through is much greater, is now only beginning to be felt and likely to last for some time. 29. I believe, however, that the ability of the Hong Kong economy to tolerate the pain of adjustment could be enhanced, thereby further strengthening the robustness of the currency board arrangement. First, the risk of interest rate volatility, particularly for the innocent parties, could be alleviated by the promotion of fixed rate borrowing as a matter of consumers’ choice. Clearly those on fixed rate mortgages would not be affected by hikes in short term interest rates. There is hitherto a lack of long term fixed rate funding for banks and so mortgages are predominantly arranged at floating rates. Here the newly formed Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation does have an important role to play.

At the end of the day, out of turmoil, we all come out with new ideas, new concepts and new lessons to be learned and followed. Or, to be more illuminating let me quote Christopher Adam and David Vines – Oxford University: “… The Great Depression led Keynes to write his General Theory, thereby creating macroeconomics as a basis for national macroeconomic policy-making. The Second World War led – via the Bretton Woods Conference – to the creation of international macroeconomics, and to the birth of the IMF… The present global financial crisis will, we think, most likely lead to a major shift in our understanding of the role of finance in macroeconomics, in both theory and in policy-making”. The recent global economic and financial crisis indeed created a room for upgrade of what we knew or what we thought we knew. It clearly illustrated how fragile our knowledge can be emphasizing the need for a continuous capacity building. Bearing all these in mind, one cannot be oblivious to the role which the training centers, such as the CEF, do have in building the architecture of knowledge. In fact, the global crisis accentuated even more their importance. They embrace and combine the latest theoretical and practical views, trying to spread the new ideas and help policymakers deliver optimal policy responses. The CEF has proved to be a leading institution in helping policy makers to improve institutional capacities.
Our current plan is to publish results in the first quarter of 2022, following a second round of submissions if that proves necessary. (2) We will also run another comprehensive insurance stress test in 2022, which amongst other things will include a dedicated scenario for general insurers underwriting cyber risk, reflecting our view that firms still need to improve the way they assess and manage their cyber exposures. Life insurers were included in the stress test for the first time in 2019 and it was hard to produce robust results, comparable across firms with diverse business models and capable of being sensibly aggregated. We will be engaging with life firms in the very near future on lessons learned from the 2019 exercise to understand better where investment is needed – by most firms – to improve capability. Also what the PRA can do to make the test more successful, including the way in which we specify stresses, and what can be achieved in time for the 2022 and subsequent exercises. By 2022, our objective is to be able to use our stress testing exercises alongside our other supervisory analysis to improve our insights into the resilience of both the general and life insurance sectors. Looking further ahead, stress and scenario testing has more scope to develop as a supervisory tool. Areas to explore include transparency and the potential role of sector-wide stress testing in the solvency assessment framework.

In line with this assessment, we are taking steps to increase our understanding of the impact of climate change from a financial perspective and to ensure that banks fully incorporate these risks into their processes and practices. I will now go through the recent and ongoing climate-related initiatives related to our supervisory work. The ECB Guide and climate-related disclosures  2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  In November last year we published the ECB Guide on climate-related and environmental risks.6 It builds on the Guide for Supervisors7 of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), and communicates the ECB’s understanding of a prudent approach to managing such risks to banks, markets and the wider public, with the aim of raising banks’ awareness and preparedness for managing them. In our Guide, we outline our supervisory expectations for how climate and environmental risks should be embedded in all relevant bank processes, from banks’ risk management frameworks to their governance structures, risk appetite, business model and strategy, and, importantly, their reporting and disclosures. Our ultimate goal is to cause banks to make sure their business strategies fully reflect the Paris Agreement – and there is one thing that will be key in getting us there: data. When it comes to tackling climate risk as a financial risk, data are what we are missing the most.
The long stretch of history points to clear episodes or epochs during which there were great leaps forward in innovation and well-being: from Ancient Greece to Ancient Rome, from Elizabethan Britain to post-Revolutionary France. By studying these episodes, historians have been able to pinpoint the source of these transformative episodes. The common denominator was the coming together of different cultures, disciplines, religions and experiences in one place at one time. In short, these great historical leaps forward had diversity at their heart. Historians even have a name for this – the “Medici effect”. From the past to the present. What explains why some cities today are thriving, fast-growing creative hubs: from San Francisco to Seattle to Sydney, from London to Dublin to Edinburgh. On this the economic geographers are also crystal clear. The common denominator is diversity - ethnic, cultural, sexual, educational. And if we turn finally from countries and cities to organisations and ask ourselves what hallmarks the most creative, fast-growing, productive and successful companies, what do you think academics find to be the common denominator? You don’t need an economist to tell you the answer to that; it too is diversity. Here’s a quiz question for you. At what age were you at your creative peak? 40, 30, 20 perhaps? In fact, the psychologists tell us it is around five years old. Next time someone tells you to grow up, just remind them of that.

Thereafter, these differences keep on rising through into adulthood. It seems it is far better for your future prospects to be born rich and stupid than poor and clever. 11  Standing aside from issues of fairness, this is a potentially huge waste of talent. This waste is one our economy can ill afford. It calls for a rethink of all elements of the life-cycle, from education and training to recruitment and leadership. I have not got time to do those justice today. But as one example, the move towards “contextualised” recruitment practices, which take into account a person’s social background when interpreting their talent, is a welcome step in the right direction, one the Bank has itself been taking. Let me conclude. The Diversity Project is a fantastic initiative and I hope it can help take the diversity agenda in financial services to that next frontier, to leader not laggard. The current environment demands nothing less. Thank you. 9 10 11  See Clark and Cummins (2013) ‘Surnames and Social Mobility: England 1230-2012’. See Social and Child Poverty Commission (2016) ‘State of the Nation 2015: Social Mobility and Child Poverty in Great Britain’. See Feinstein (2003) ‘Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort’. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  6
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Some perspectives on globalisation and its aftermath Welcoming remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 2017 IMF-BNM Summer Conference "Some Perspectives on Globalisation and its Aftermath", Kuala Lumpur, 25 July 2017. * * * Welcome to the 2017 IMF-BNM Summer Conference. I would like to thank the IMF for partnering with Bank Negara Malaysia to co-host this event for the first time in Southeast Asia. Our exchange of knowledge and experiences will be valuable for us to better understand the dynamic issues brought about by globalisation that is confronting our economies, financial systems and societies. I want to record my appreciation to all of you for being here today. Kofi Annan once said that arguing against globalisation is like arguing against the law of gravity. Globalisation has brought about unprecedented periods of peace, prosperity and progress for the world. We have made significant strides. In the last decade, we have lifted half a billion people out of abject poverty – it previously took us 25 years to do it, from 1980 to 2005. Businesses, investors and workers have benefited from expanded opportunities. Countries have rapidly transformed agricultural labourers into manufacturing workers, spurring growth and productivity. Consequently, economies worldwide have become more interdependent, integrated and intertwined. One of the biggest beneficiaries from globalisation is ASEAN, which celebrates its 50 th anniversary this year.

In line with the spirit of Sasana, our meeting point today for the learned and the wise, I look forward to the exchange of ideas at this Conference. In this regard, I would like to humbly offer some thoughts on three areas where the gains from globalisation can be safely acquired, more equitably dispersed, and impose the least cost to society. Firstly, we must make financial globalisation safer and its benefits distributed more equitably. The Global Financial Crisis, and the Asian Financial Crisis, clearly demonstrated the risks and the damage that could be wrought by financial globalisation. It amplified the costs of policy and regulatory lapses and failures in crisis prevention and management. It is interesting to observe that despite consequences primarily associated with financial globalisation, trade has received the brunt of the blame. Let me illustrate – in the wake of the GFC, between November 2008 to December 2009, 390 trade protectionist measures were announced or implemented by 19 of the G20 members. Ironically, financial globalisation channels were not addressed as quickly. It is surprising how policymakers, particularly in the advanced economies, have yet to arrive at a consensus in recognising the harmful effects of free capital mobility that is disconnected with the real economic activity. This is an issue that many remain divided on until today. While we have instituted policy reforms to better manage our financial systems and institutions, more can be done.
Madison’s notes describe George Mason’s position on the subject: “Though he had a mortal hatred to paper money, yet, as he could not foresee all emergencies, he was unwilling to tie the hands of the legislature”.9 Edmund Randolph was of a similar opinion: “… notwithstanding his antipathy to paper money, [he] could not agree to strike out the words, as he could not foresee all the occasions that might arise.” So the ideal is a framework that will implement what we currently believe to be the optimal monetary policy strategy and will deviate from that only if collectively we change our view about what that strategy should be. Our ignorance is too pervasive to allow the adoption of a rule for how learning should occur. So if it is sensible to delegate both policy decisions and the process of learning to institutions such as central banks, that in turn requires those institutions to have political legitimacy and an acceptance that they will not redistribute income and wealth in favour of some groups rather than others at the expense of the objective given to them.10 Where such institutions are difficult to create, the ‘external effect’ - as Stokey (2002) called it - of good monetary policy will not be captured. And if the result is a monetary policy that is sufficiently bad, it may result in a radical switch to a unit of account determined externally, an obvious example of which is dollarisation. Monetary institutions, therefore, play two different roles.

Let me emphasise that, in Bank of Albania’s vision, the monetary policy oriented toward price stability, and the supervisory and regulatory policy oriented toward financial stability contribute to the sustainable and long-term development, and are complementary to each other. This creed is fully tested by experience, both in the world and in Albania. In the long-term horizon, the Bank of Albania is confident that the investment we have made in promoting financial stability will bear its fruit with regard to sustainable development, and will increase the space for monetary policy manoeuvring. In addition, accomplishing our price stability objective would enhance the confidence in the national currency, reduce volatility and foster transparency in financial markets, thus contributing to the sustainable development of the financial system. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the coordination of monetary policy and financial stability often present challenges and compromises. In this context, setting clear priorities, using the right instruments, and communicating transparently central bank actions and objectives are key elements for the success of our work. Concluding, I would like to reiterate that I am fully confident that in the course of the day, all the issues I posed above will be elaborated in greater detail. I do believe that the contribution of the eminent panellists and active input from all participants will be an added value in this regard. I wish the best of success look forward with the greatest interest to the outcome of your deliberations. ***  Thank you for your attention! 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
The Discussion Paper sets out how we intend to operationalise these principles and incentivise firms to put in place, and abide by, credible plans to reduce emissions over time. Conclusion  As I have outlined, we have come far, but have further to go. When it comes to climate change, we cannot stand still. We need to continue to be bold and learn from our work so far to deepen our understanding and inform future actions. Greater ambition and cooperation is still needed, including wider adoption of best practices. For this reason, as well as evolving our domestic work, we also need to evolve our collective approaches. This year presents central banks, regulators and policymakers with a unique opportunity to do this, and I have been encouraged by the progress we have made in the G7 and G20 in the build up to COP26. Under the UK’s Presidency, the G7 has started meaningful discussions on the role of finance ministries and central banks in the transition to net-zero. Under Italy’s Presidency, the G20, through the Sustainable Finance Working Group and the FSB, is developing climate-focused roadmaps to coordinate and galvanise  11  See MPC Remit statement and letter and FPC Remit letter, March 2021 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  6  international work. These fora allow us to share experiences and develop common best practice. Listening and learning how others are thinking about the potential macroeconomic, macroprudential and microprudential implications will be important to that.

Urban Bäckström: Financial cycles Speech by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum on Crises, Contagion and Coordination: Issues for Policymakers in the Global Economy, Philadelphia, 22 November 2002. *  *  *  First I want to express my thanks to the organizers for inviting me to this very interesting conference. Let me especially thank Tony Santomero for everything he has done in his previous capacity in inspiring and assisting us at the Riksbank over the years as an academic adviser. I wish you, Tony, every success as president for the Philadelphia Fed and as an important policy maker here in the U.S. I think one can say that central bankers around the world have never before had such a central and well respected position as they have had during the past decade. Their task seemed to be well defined and the job to deliver price stability has worked rather well. Much of the mystique that typically surrounded central banks has gradually disappeared. Openness and transparency have become the key words of the day. Moreover, research concerning monetary policy has made good progress during the past decade. The world of central banking has indeed undergone positive changes. However, it would be most dangerous for us, central bankers, to just sit down and relax in the belief that all the important problems in the field of monetary policy have been resolved and need no further consideration.
The important alternatives to cash are charge cards (or credit cards) and Cash cards. Charge cards and credit cards currently account for more than one quarter of all transactions, which is a lower figure than for the other Nordic countries. With regard to purely electronic money, there is currently only a national issue in Sweden, and that is the Cash card. This project involves every bank issuing its own e-money that is downloaded into a chip in the respective bank’s charge card or credit card. The Cash system has not yet attained sufficient critical mass to become accepted, which also applies to the corresponding systems in other countries. Perhaps the old cash and new charge cards offer too good substitutes. In this context it may be interesting to note one aspect of how cash is distributed. The dominant quantity of withdrawals is through ATMs, but the ATM network in Sweden differs considerably from the networks in other countries. In Sweden we have only approximately 300 ATMs per million inhabitants; in Europe only Greece and Turkey have fewer. On the other hand, we have by far the largest number of transactions per ATM. We thus have fewer ATMs, but use them more. This ATM structure is probably due primarily to the fact that the banks have placed their ATMs by bank offices and only there. In many other countries, cash dispensers are located in shopping centres and other places where people are active, regardless of the location of bank offices.

We must all be able to pay our bills in a secure manner, preferably also in a simple and speedy manner, i.e. we must know that the  BIS Review 51/2002  1  party to which we are sending money actually receives it. There are many countries in the world where this does not function and this is as much of an obstacle to development as when roads and railways do not function. The banks are the institutions that handle the major part of the payments. It is because they are so important to the financial sector that they are subject to such comprehensive legislation and that they are the companies most closely monitored by Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority). We may have views on how the banks should set charges, handle their customers and so on, but without them our lives would certainly be more complicated. In this context it is worth noting how much IT in a broad sense has helped the banks to develop and simply means of payment. It is not so long ago that one received a weekly wage in the form of a brown envelope containing banknotes, handed out on a Friday afternoon. Nowadays our wages are paid directly into our bank accounts and we receive notice of this in a bank statement. Nor do we have to go very far to pay our bills; we can sit at our desks and fill out giro forms or - even easier - pay through the computer.
And even as they impact the economy, the appropriate policy response may not be obvious because it may be difficult to assess in real time the probable duration of the shock and whether it is demand driven or supply driven. Even at a one-year horizon, which for policy purposes is not a very long time, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding forecasts of GDP growth. For example, the Survey of Professional Forecasters reports that on average 50 economists attach a 90 percent probability to an outcome for real GDP growth for 2007 that ranges from 1.0 percent to 5.0 percent. The width of this band of confidence or uncertainty is similar to that in the published forecasts of many central banks. The types of fundamental uncertainty I just reviewed are always present, but their impact on the appropriate near-term trajectory of rates, and hence on the degree of confidence the central bank can convey about that trajectory, may vary substantially over time. I want to mention a few other concrete examples of the uncertainty we currently face. The latest wave of global economic integration has influenced inflation and output dynamics around the world in ways that may be hard to understand fully in real time. Technological progress, along with the transition to greater labor force participation in emerging and developing economies has probably served to keep inflation low in many other countries and has served to increase the rate of growth in potential output globally.

The “non-cash” euro is already in use The final stage of the introduction of the euro will include two changeovers: the changeover to the noncash euro, which concerns all book-entry transactions (cheques, bank accounts, bank card payments, transfers, loans, etc.) and the changeover to the cash euro, which concerns banknotes and coins. This summer, banks in France started to systematically convert bank accounts into euros and provide customers with euro cheque books. In various participating countries, in particular France, all bank accounts have already been converted . It is now up to each citizen in the euro area to establish a new scale of values for the currency and to make payments in euro. In this respect, retailers have a fundamental role to play: their active participation and their readiness to accept payments in euro will greatly facilitate the euro changeover as a whole. The cash euro will be in circulation within 8 weeks As regards the cash euro, the main task now consists in frontloading the banknotes and coins so that, on 1 January 2002, transactions can be carried out smoothly in the best possible security conditions. To achieve this, frontloaded coins are supplied to credit institutions. Banknotes will soon be provided to them (as of 1 December in France). Retailers will also be provided with frontloaded banknotes and coins.