samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Thus, the Banco de España’s latest macroeconomic projections described a scenario of weaker momentum in activity and greater inflationary pressure than in the previous December 2021 projections. Specifically, the projections envisage that GDP will grow by 4.5% in 2022, 2.9% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. In the area of prices, the April projections pointed to an average rate of change of 7.5% in the HICP in 2022. Inflation is expected to then drop sharply to 2% and 1.6% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. It should be stressed that this sharp slowdown is based on two assumptions. The first is that there will be a slowdown in the growth of energy prices, in line with those on the futures markets. The second is that a moderate wage growth response and a squeezing of trade margins will prevent the emergence of the price-wage feedback loop. The economic outlook is, in any event, subject to a very high level of uncertainty. In fact, the information that has become available since these projections were published would, in the absence of further shocks, point to a new downward revision to GDP growth in 2022, due to developments in Q1 being more unfavourable than expected. As regards inflation, the new data suggest higher growth in the non-energy component, along with strong growth in the energy component, albeit somewhat more modest than expected in April.

Regarding incomes policies, based on the findings of the assessments required by law, further adjustments must be made to the conditions governing eligibility for Spain’s minimum income scheme (MIS), to ensure that this instrument can effectively fulfil its mission of eradicating extreme poverty while avoiding undesired effects. To that effect, social security authorities have recently signed agreements with several research institutions in order to evaluate social inclusion itineraries linked to the MIS. Housing affordability has tightened in recent years. According to Eurostat data, 48.7% of Spaniards living in market-price rented accommodation in 2020 were at risk of poverty or social exclusion, the highest rate in the European Union (where the average stands at 32.3%), while 35.9% devoted more than 40% of their disposable income to housing, versus the EU average of 25.8%. The Draft Law on the right to housing seeks to ease such difficulties, which hit the young and lower-income households particularly hard. However, some of the measures envisaged, such as rent control, may not have the desired effect or may even have adverse effects in the medium term. Conversely, certain measures that could give a significant structural boost to the supply of rented housing, such as offering greater effective legal certainty to landlords, are absent. 17  (iv) The challenge of increasing firm size, facilitating cross-sector reallocation and fostering innovation Another major challenge is the small size of businesses, which results in less innovation and low productivity.
This is extremely important, although no one knows exactly how large a share of these assets are volatile. It is clear that a small group of non-residents are ready to sell their assets at the current offshore exchange rate. This spring’s auctions did not tempt owners of short-term Treasury bonds. Many will turn out to be long-term investors in the sense that they will not unwind their positions at an auction price approaching the official exchange rate, but will continue to reinvest as long as the interest rate differential exceeds the assessed risk. The auctions will reveal whether this is the case. Because it is unrealistic to expect more than a limited portion of the offshore krónur to be released through auctions, the Investment Programme does not stop there. When the incentive to participate in the investments diminishes – for example, because investors consider the auction exchange rate not favourable enough to justify a five-year commitment, or because the investment projects are not sufficiently large in scope – an exit tax will be levied on short-term capital movements. This step will not be taken, however, unless the offshore exchange rate moves close to the onshore rate, which would be a clear indication of enhanced stability of these assets. A number of critics have found fault with this sequence of events and suggested that the exit tax be levied immediately. In their opinion, this would generate significant income for the Treasury and facilitate the full removal of the capital controls much sooner than is currently projected.

We are entering a consultation period that is absolutely critical and that will lead in June next year to the issuance of an opinion by EIOPA. This opinion, which will be reviewed by the Commission, will form the basis for the negotiations with the Council and Parliament that are scheduled to start in early 2021. Here again, we need to put the challenges posed by Solvency II into perspective. Let me remind you that this is the most ambitious reform ever undertaken in insurance. The new regulatory framework, based on an  Page 5 of 6  approach that takes into account all risks to which insurers are exposed, has undeniably strengthened the resilience of the European insurance market. However, and you yourselves see this every day, the prudential requirements imposed by Solvency II have a number of drawbacks, including being volatile and complex. To remedy this, let’s take advantage of the window of opportunity offered by the directive’s review, and push for four priorities that are essential for financial stability and for the sound financing of the economy: (i)  All things being equal, the revision must not lead to an increase in capital requirements for the European insurance industry. (ii)  It would be counterproductive to artificially lower the capital requirement by stopping equity investments. But despite the advances obtained in 2018, this asset class is still being penalised.
Frankly, it has been shocking over the past year or so to discover how many medium-sized banks and building societies did not hold government bonds or other very high quality assets; or, if they did, how many did not have a regular presence in the gilt repo market or even had no capacity to repo at all. Turning up in the core secured-funding markets for the first time for years is an absolute give away of distress. All that has to change. Market-maker of Last Resort What I have said so far could be mistaken to imply that only banking markets matter. That would be misleading. The capital markets obviously matter too. Indeed, the current crisis has illustrated just what a mess can result from liquidity draining out of those markets. Market liquidity is endogenous: participants thinking that it might dry up can contribute to its doing so. In the early phases of this crisis, by virtue of holding large “trading” books that were marked to market, banks and other traders found themselves having to make very large portfolio write downs in the face of sharp rises in liquidity premia in asset markets. As highly-levered institutions, those mark-downs depleted their net worth to the point of imperilling solvency. That caused a retrenchment in the availability of credit, helping to plunge the world economy into recession, and so impairing the value of more traditional loan books, in a vicious spiral. So it would have been better if, somehow, we could have preserved the liquidity of the markets.

“Letting inflation through”, as it is sometimes called, without taking any measures, is not an option – neither as a policy nor according to the Bank’s mandatory duties. For this reason, the Board of Governors decided yesterday to raise the policy interest rate by 0.75 percentage points. This is a greater increase than in recent decisions and reflects both the exchange rate movements that have taken place and the forecasts for economic developments that the Bank has now presented. No absolute commitment has been given about further policy rate hikes or whether the next steps will be large or small. That will depend on diverse economic events as they unfold. But the tasks assigned to the Bank are clear and it is willing to undertake them. Tight monetary policy may cause a temporary contraction in the economy while a satisfactory balance is restored. It is almost certain that too lax a stance would lead to a disorderly adjustment. Sometimes the economic situation requires the Central Bank to encourage growth and stimulate initiative and enterprise. People see the Bank’s actions then in that same positive light. Then conditions change and the Bank has to change course. Action is needed to counter overexpansion and overheating, and encourage saving, prudence and caution. Then the Bank has to resort to means which may have uncomfortable side-effects. Seen in that light, the Bank’s profile and image appear different. The Central Bank’s ability to use the powers at its disposal as conditions demand must not be changed.
He lambasted the Bank’s acting “hesitatingly, reluctantly and with misgiving”.2 Henry Gibbs, Governor of the Bank from 1875 to 1877, highlighted the Overend experience as “the Bank’s only real blunder”.3 Yet the Bank had also learned from this experience. It had discovered that its role could be neither commercial nor competitive. Instead its role was as guardian of the financial system as a whole, protecting banks from what is today called systemic risk. In Bagehot’s words, the Bank should act as last resort lender to solvent institutions against good collateral at a penalty rate. It has done so ever since. The Bank did not have to wait long to put its new-found role into practice. On Saturday 8 November 1890 the Bank Governor of the day, William Lidderdale, summoned his Directors. This itself aroused suspicion. Bank directors were never seen at work at the weekend. They typically departed for the country around Friday lunchtime. (Let me tell you, things have changed for Bank of England Directors since then.) What Lidderdale told his Directors was electric. There were serious liquidity problems at another big and famous bank, Baring Brothers and Company. But the Bank had not the faintest clue as to Barings’ true financial position. To rectify that, Lidderdale ordered an accountant’s report on Barings to be brought to him with immediate effect. And with that, he departed to London Zoo with his son. 1  Kynaston (1994) Vol. 1. p200. 2  Bagehot (1873). 3  Wood (1999).

However we need to acknowledge that the benefits of globalisation have been very unevenly distributed, even in the most developed economies where many wage earners have not seen a real increase in wages for decades and have lost their jobs and security. This is what populism feeds on whilst certainly not offering solutions intended to ensure social justice. Economic growth is only a means to the ultimate end of providing a higher standard of living and confidence about the future for all citizens. But it is an absolutely necessary means. Page 8 of 8
In particular, the cooling in the housing market points towards weaker growth than expected next year. The picture of the euro area and other parts of the world is that developments have rather been slightly stronger than we assessed in June. Back in June, we envisaged fairly high growth in Sweden over the coming years. The statistics received since then confirm that the economy is growing at a good rate. Household consumption and housing investment have grown more rapidly than expected. However, both the number of persons employed and the number of hours worked have been lower than expected. This reflects the fact that productivity growth has been surprisingly high again. Companies have thus been able to increase production without needing to take on so many new employees. Most indications are nevertheless that the labour market will continue to improve. Generally high lending and the fact that household indebtedness and house prices are continuing to rise rapidly support the picture of strong demand. Rapid increases in energy prices have contributed to inflation being higher than the Riksbank’s forecast over the summer. However, the oil price has fallen during the autumn, although it is as usual difficult to know whether this trend will continue. The oil price, like other energy prices, has a tendency to fluctuate considerably. There has been a recent downward adjustment in expectations of future energy prices. BIS Review 96/2006  1  The strong productivity growth will contribute to unit labour costs being low this year.

d. Fourth, to position the financial system to facilitate an orderly transition to a greener economy. e. Fifth, to advance value-based finance through Islamic finance leadership. 31. These aspirations paint a picture of a dynamic and vibrant future. That is indeed what we hope and strive for. We ought to be excited about the prospects and possibilities of the future – but we must ensure it is built upon a bedrock of resilience, so that whatever progress we secure is not short-lived. 32. For the financial sector, decades of continuous effort to strengthen the financial system – be it to build buffers or to implement measures to deepen and develop our financial sector – has been crucial to ensure that it can support economic growth. In the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis, the comprehensive reforms of the banking sector resulted in more robust and well managed institutions. This in turn supported a more resilient banking sector and enabled banks to achieve greater scale to serve the broadening needs of a diversifying economy and expansion in the region. We also advanced strategies to deepen our bond markets, to be a stable and alternative source of funding for the economy. 33. I can remember how tough it was to push those reforms though, and to get them done but those efforts meant that when the GFC happened, Malaysia’s financial sector was in a strong position to withstand the shock.
Now it could of course also be argued that the extension of the “single passport” to most aspects of the provision of financial services foreseen by the Financial Services Action Plan could well expose the accession countries to new risks, particularly those emanating from within the EU itself, with which  3  Caviglia, G., Krause, G & C., Thimann. 2002. Key Features of the financial sectors in EU accession countries, in Financial Sectors in EU Accession Countries. ed., C. Thimann C. Frankfurt: European Central Bank. 4  Claessens, S., Demirguc-Kunt, A & H. Huizinga. 1998 (rev 2000). How does Foreign Entry Affect the Domestic Banking Market? World Bank Working Paper No. 1918. Washington: World Bank. these countries are already closely integrated. Indeed, the ECB has itself recently stated that the integration of financial markets in the region could increase the chances of systemic disturbances 5 affecting more than one Member State. In this regard, Dr Buch’s paper on the implications for financial stability of foreign bank entry should help to place the discussion in an empirical context. Another important aspect of financial market integration relates to regulation and supervision. As the process intensifies, the distinction between different types of financial institutions and markets will become increasingly blurred.

In the near future, the exporting sector of the economy is expected to be sustained by improved demand in Albania’s trading partners. Fiscal indicators were characterised by higher revenues and lower expenditures during the first two months of the year. As of February, budget revenues increased 4.9%, year on year, whereas expenditure and budget deficit fell 9% and 82%, respectively. Expenditures  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  decreased mainly due to downward capital spending, while revenues upped thanks to increase in tax revenues. These developments have determined a consolidating trend of the fiscal policy and have kept its impact on aggregate demand and economic growth subdued. Excluding the effect of payment arrears, the consolidating trend of the fiscal policy is expected to be maintained over the medium-term period. As always, the Bank of Albania endorses and encourages measures for fiscal consolidation, considering them as necessary for reducing risk premia in the economy and maintaining the country’s medium and long-term stability. Moreover, the Government will pay a part of its arrears to businesses within this budget year. This development is expected to improve the private sector’s balance sheets and demand. In response to the easing monetary policy and the liquidity situation, financial markets have been calm, in terms of trading, showing a tendency to cut interest rates. The latest key interest rate cut in February is transmitted to short-term interest rates in the money market.
Innovative technology is paving the way for new and improved financial services, while competition among financial service providers is intensifying. In a digital world, location and national borders become less important. The banking system in Norway is at the forefront of technology. Cash usage is low, and almost four in five person-to-person payments are made using Vipps mobile payment services. Norway ranks at the top in Europe in terms of use of internet banking, and robots are performing tasks such as customer contact and processing of loan applications.3 The largest Norwegian banks have the lowest cost-to-income ratios in the EEA.4 Payment services costs are also low in Norway compared with other countries. Even though Norwegian banks are well positioned to meet growing competition, they are not sheltered, nor should they be. Increased competition for financial services is an intended development. Combined with digitalisation, this engenders better and cheaper banking services for customers, giving more people access to financial services. But new technology and increased competition can also disrupt the very key role banks play in the financial system. The changes we are observing raise big questions: Are we headed towards a monetary system that is fundamentally different from the one we have today? Will tech giants and cryptocurrrencies outcompete banks and national currencies in a few years?

In this context, I am proud that the Bank of Albania has always been and remains frontrunner of change. 3. Bank of Albania, an evolving institution Throughout the transition history, The Bank of Albania has shown able to change and embrace better contemporary and most effective practices. The nature and functions of the institution were fundamentally transformed in 1992, when the Albanian economy started the transition process towards a free market economy. Within a short period of time and in the presence of a shortage of an institutional heritage, the Bank of Albania succeeded to establish the contours of an independent monetary policy, being empowered in the presence of a free-floating exchange rate, regulate and supervise a private banking sector that functions based on the market principles. The qualitative transformation of the Bank of Albania towards a modern central bank evolved further with the approval of the new Law on the Bank of Albania in 1997, which lays down the primary objective “to achieve and maintain price stability”. This Law sets out the decision-making, financial and operational independence of the central bank in the pursuit of its objectives, in line with the best international practices. In addition, it is encouraging that this institutional independence enjoys a broad social consensus. During these years of transition, our monetary policy has marked a notable progress towards: developing a theoretical framework; building up the completion of our knowledge with empirical studies; perfecting the instruments for its implementation; and the transparent communication with the public.
Financial services growth was very weak in 2016, at just 1.8%, reflecting slower regional growth and trade. Growth rebounded strongly to 4.9% last year, driven by the strong performance of the fund management segment and steady growth in financial intermediation. The growth momentum has been sustained in the first half of this year and we are looking at another good year for financial services. We remain confident of meeting the 5-year average growth target of 4.3%. We saw a net increase of 7,800 jobs in financial services and FinTech over 2016 and 2017, close to our ITM target of 8,000 jobs. Job growth was mainly driven by the insurance and fund management industries, and to a lesser extent by the banking industry. IT has emerged as a key functional area driving hiring demand across financial services— some of the fastest growing job roles are in software development, cyber security, data analytics, artificial intelligence, and business process engineering. FinTech alone is estimated to have contributed close to 2,000 of the net jobs created during these two years. MAS expects job growth in financial services this year to exceed the ITM target. Let me now take stock of progress in each of the three pillars of the ITM: business strategies 6 / 11  BIS central bankers' speeches  jobs and skills; and innovation and technology. BUSINESS STRATEGIES I will start with our business strategies. Singapore continued to do well in asset management, with assets under management (AUM) increasing by an average 12.7% p.a. over 2016 and 2017.

Maintaining financial stability and trust are central to MAS’ mission. The annual report summarises our many regulatory and supervisory initiatives – to make derivatives markets safer, to enhance cyber security, to promote a good risk culture in our financial institutions. The annual report also devotes two pages of infographics to the enforcement actions MAS has taken against those who breach our regulations or fail to meet our standards. MAS does not tolerate: abuse of our financial system for money laundering or tax evasion; misconduct or manipulation in our securities markets; or mis-selling to consumers who place their trust and money in our financial institutions and their representatives. But being a no-nonsense regulator does not stand in the way of being also businessfriendly. For financial institutions who want to grow their business in Singapore, build up the skills of their employees, or want to innovate or experiment with new technologies, MAS is a happy partner and collaborator. 1 “The Goldilocks Economy – Will the Three Bears Return?”, Speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director,  Monetary Authority of Singapore, at UBS Wealth Insights Conference, 15 January 2018. 11 / 11  BIS central bankers' speeches