samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This is a good example of identifying regulatory burdens that are not worth the cost. We are also considering the implementation of a stress capital buffer that would better align the dynamic stress capital requirements of CCAR with our more static, point-in-time regulatory capital rules. Other potential adjustments include changes to the assumptions about the pace of a firm’s planned dividend and share repurchases, and how a firm in a stressed environment would likely manage its balance sheet and business footprint. The financial crisis provided a vivid reminder that a well-functioning financial system is a necessary condition for a vibrant economy. The efficient intermediation of funding from savers to borrowers supports economic activity and, over time, raises living standards. This means that we need a financial system that is robust and resilient to shocks. Most of the changes that have been implemented since the financial crisis have moved us in this direction, and it is important that any new changes to laws and regulations be grounded in what we have learned. Our central purpose must be to ensure a safe and sound financial system that efficiently provides financing to households and businesses through the ups and downs of the business cycle. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 1 James Bergin, Dianne Dobbeck, Jack Gutt, Kristin Malcarney, Kevin Stiroh, Joseph Tracy and Emily Yang  assisted in preparing these remarks.

However, risks only changed form and address in the financial system, just like the energy continuously transforms in the physical universe. Almost all economists agree that we are heading to a slow, gradual and painful recovery. And as a central banker who has spent almost 30 years in this profession, I can tell you that it is a miracle itself to have so many economists agree on one issue with so much vigor and conviction. The future of the global financial system will be shaped by the lessons we derive from our current experience. The ongoing crisis revealed that preventive measures put in place at the local level by national authorities may not be effective to address global problems. It also underlined the importance of international cooperation and coordination in designing and implementing economic policies. It is clearly understood that the only way to prevent future crises at the global scale is multilateral cooperation. However to establish and sustain multilateral cooperation is not an easy task. As (John Maynard) Keynes once said, “The biggest problem is not to let people accept new ideas, but to let them forget the old ones.“ It is very likely that economic agents will try to hold onto their old habits when the effects of the crisis subdue. Appeals on regulators will pile up for a more lenient implementation of rules, regulations, and policies. Politicians will face pressure from their constituents to give priority to local concerns at the expense of global coordination.
In March, we issued two circulars to all banks in Hong Kong. The first one reminded them to undertake risk assessment and make preparation for the necessary transition. The second one served to clarify that genuine amendments to existing derivatives contracts which are made to give effect to interest rate benchmark reform will not be considered new contracts from the perspective of the HKMA’s margin requirements. This removes one of the uncertainties about the transition. For the time being, we have not specified a timeline for the banks to get ready their transition plan but we will approach them at a later stage to understand their progress and readiness for the transition. HIBOR and HONIA 15. As financial institutions in Hong Kong are gathering pace in their preparation for the LIBOR transition, we are also making progress in identifying an alternative reference rate for HIBOR. We understand market participants are keen to have forward-looking term rates to mirror the structure of HIBOR. Therefore, the HKMA conducted a feasibility study of compiling HKD term rates based on actual wholesale funding transactions by major banks. But the results showed that while transaction-based wholesale term funding rates generally followed term HIBORs, they exhibited a high level of daily volatility, which made them an impractical substitute for term HIBORs. 16. More recently, TMA proposed adopting the Hong Kong Dollar Overnight Index Average (HONIA) as the alternative reference rate for HIBOR. Similar to many alternate reference rates chosen in other currency areas, HONIA is an overnight interbank funding rate.

While lacking a term structure on its own, this reference rate is robust and based purely on transaction data. 17. In early May, TMA completed a consultation with the industry on several technical refinements to HONIA. This is part of its ongoing initiative to further enhance the robustness of its benchmarks. It is now reviewing the feedbacks received, and will consider how best to put in place the relevant enhancements. 18. When these enhancements are done, TMA will work with the industry to promote development and trading of HONIA-based financial products. Later on, it will also try to promote trading in the OIS market, and hopefully develop an OIS curve from HONIA. But this would have to depend on market conditions. 19. While HONIA serves as an alternative to HIBOR, there is currently no plan to discontinue HIBOR. HIBOR has been in place for many years and is still widely recognised by market participants as a credible and reliable benchmark. Similar to a few other jurisdictions in the region, Hong Kong will adopt a multiple-rate approach. In other words, HONIA and HIBOR will co-exist in the market and market participants are free to choose between them. Meanwhile, TMA will continue to strengthen HIBOR to ensure that it remains in compliance with international standards. 20. Of course, we are facing the irony that if HIBOR remains, market players may see little incentive to develop and trade HONIA-based products. However, I encourage all market participants to start exploring how to incorporate HONIA into their business.
The hands on the Great Clock on Big Ben are set to the time on 13 May 1940 when Churchill made his inaugural speech to the House of Commons as Prime Minister. 1  2  Karsh described taking the photograph thus: “I stepped toward him and without premeditation, but ever so respectfully, I said, ‘Forgive me, Sir’ and plucked the cigar out of his mouth. By the time I got back to my camera, he looked so belligerent he could have devoured me. It was at that instant I took the photograph. The silence was deafening. Then Mr Churchill, smiling benignly, said, ‘You may take another one.’ He walked toward me, shook my hand and said, ‘You can even make a roaring lion stand still to be photographed.’”  BIS central bankers’ speeches  His declaration then – “I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat” – is quoted beneath the portrait. Let’s take a look at some of these features with a video. Conclusion “A gigantic historical figure during his own lifetime, superhumanly bold, strong, and imaginative, one of the two greatest men of action his nation has produced, an orator of prodigious powers, the saviour of his country, a legendary hero who belongs to myth as much as to reality, the largest human being of our time.” This was the judgment of his contemporary, the philosopher and historian Isaiah Berlin.

Churchill himself said that “a nation that forgets its past has no future.” Our banknotes are testaments to the outstanding achievements of the nation’s greatest individuals; they are repositories of the United Kingdom’s collective memory. That contribution will continue with the new £ which brings together the future, in the form of polymer and the most advanced security features yet, and Britain’s glorious history, in the achievements of Sir Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
One point that is particularly relevant to banks that finance companies or projects in countries like China is that the rules of the environmental game can change very quickly. The authorities in China are getting serious about cutting emissions and pollution, as the requirement by the Beijing Municipal Government on the Shougang Steel Group to cut back its output has shown. The problem in China is that regulations are not always strictly enforced. But this can change overnight, resulting in major compliance problems for the companies concerned and increased risk for the banks that have lent to them. Hong Kong banks which lend into China would therefore be well advised to keep this in mind. Finally, banks should pay close regard to their own “corporate ecology”. Banks can contribute to environmental protection by the way in which they manage their use of resources in their own operations. In this way banks can be responsible corporate citizens while at the same time reducing business costs. The type of measures that can be adopted include saving on energy consumption, recycling of paper, waste management, purchasing environmentally friendly products and use of video conferencing to cut down on unnecessary travel. Use of office automation such as email can also help to reduce the consumption of paper, provided of course that staff can be encouraged not to print out the messages.

At first sight it might appear that banks and other financial institutions, as service companies, have less responsibility for environmental protection than other companies, notably those whose industrial processes have a direct impact on the environment. However, this would be to ignore the central role in the economy that banks have as financial intermediaries. While they may not be polluters themselves, they will probably have a banking relationship with some companies that are polluters or could be in the future. This creates a number of risks for the banks, and raises the question of how these risks should be identified, measured, monitored and controlled. This is primarily a matter for banks’ management to deal with, and I hope that today’s conference will help them to do so. But it is also an issue for banking regulators, particularly with the increased focus on risk-based supervision. In the case of the HKMA, this is a process whereby we try to assess the extent to which banks are exposed to various types of risk and the quality of the systems used for managing these risks. For this purpose, we have identified eight different types of risk: credit, market, interest rate, liquidity, operational, legal, reputation and strategic. Environmental risk straddles a number of these risks. In particular, it is a subset of credit, legal and reputation risk: •  Credit risk can arise indirectly where banks are lending to customers whose businesses are adversely affected by the costs of cleaning up pollution or by changes in environmental regulations.
Macedonia will have to save more What are your expectations for the Macedonian economy in 2013, which is expected to be perhaps more difficult and more turbulent than this year? What, according to you, will be the biggest economic challenges and problems next year? It will be another year full of uncertainty for the world and especially for the European economy. Thus, the export demand for Macedonian products is unlikely to improve. So, we cannot expect that to boost economic growth. However, our expectation for the economic growth in Macedonia is to be much better than this year, driven by diversification of the production into new export-oriented facilities that started to work this year, or will start to work in the next year, as well as infrastructural facilities for which funding has already been secured from foreign sources. Both politicians and economists globally are of a divided opinion in terms of the economic policy that should be conducted in order to emerge from the crisis. Some advocate austerity, others encourage spending to stimulate growth. Which policy you prefer and think is right for Macedonia? According to me, those are “false” discussions. If a country has a room for increased spending, certainly now is the time to stimulate the economy. But unfortunately, there are not many such countries worldwide. Developed economies were spending more than they could afford for years, and now they do not have any room for fiscal stimulus left.

At the moment we are sure that risks to price stability undermining are eliminated, we will apply monetary measures appropriate for the slower economic growth. Маy pressures be coming from the fiscal policy? So far, they have not, and I hope it will remain that way. The best confirmation of that are the balances in the economy. After all, exactly because of that, we had room for the so far most relaxed monetary policy without jeopardizing the stability of prices, Denar exchange rate and the banking system. Banks’ non-performing loans will decrease This year, liquidity was the biggest problem of the companies. The figures showed that the indebtedness in the real sector is huge, over Euro 5 billion, with the country’s debt to the companies being over Euro 220 million. In such circumstances, banks have reduced lending to firms to a minimum and they struggle with the growth of bad loans. Can we expect the situation to improve? In the statistics that are known to me I have not found such figures. However, when economic growth and exports slow down and budgetary payments are late, usually the liquidity of companies deteriorates. Therefore they are late in the settlement of obligations to the banks. Despite that, non-performing loans of the Macedonian banks amount to about 10 percent, which is the lowest share in the region from Slovenia to Greece. Announced debt repayments from the budget will contribute to the reduction of the debts among companies, and finally debts toward the banks.
These are both things that would tend to boost the relative demand for high-skilled labour during a downturn. Differences in labour supply might also play a part. For example, some have argued that those with low wages have less to lose from exiting employment. Their pay is lower relative to unemployment benefit, especially during downturns. They may also have fewer options: when vacancies are scarce, skilled people have the capacity to move into lower-paid jobs while searching for new opportunities (Nickell (1979), Chassamboulli (2011)). Why have compositional effects been less positive during this cycle? These factors can help to explain why employment is more variable for the low paid. It’s possible the same factors have been at work in the most recent cycle in the UK. But the last  6  The regression also includes time dummies so allows for arbitrary variation of pay growth net of the compositional effects. 7  In principle, demand-side factors could still matter. Perhaps, for example, the problems of the financial industry, whose employees are better qualified than average, have pushed employment towards other industries. To that extent, the regression could be picking up effects whose origins are demand-led – a shift in output across sectors – but attributing them to changes in individuals’ characteristics. But this seems unlikely: in truth, shifts in sectoral employment haven’t been big enough to generate such effects.

This might account for the acceleration we’ve seen in average productivity and wages; it could also explain why there’s been a narrowing of the gap between AWE growth and the surveys. So having summarised the main points let me describe in a little more detail where the data comes from and how these effects have been estimated. I’ll then say something, if only tentatively, about why they might have differed from the last cycle – why, in particular, the compositional effects have been more negative during the recovery, and perhaps before that as well (my hands will be waving slightly at that point). A short final section concludes with some remarks about policy. Generating the estimates To understand the results it helps to know something about where the data come from and how they’re constructed. The first and most important point is that the headline measure of wages in the UK, the AWE, is what it says it is – an average. Employers are asked simply to divide their total wage bill by the number of employees. So if – say – a responding firm were to substitute a less experienced, less well-paid person for someone better paid, its submission to the AWE would fall even if no individual’s wage had changed. It is these “compositional effects” that we are trying to measure and account for. We do so using data from a different source – the Labour Force Survey – which is sent out to households.
He emphasised that Norges Bank had to be independent and free of pressure from the political authorities and civil servants He stated at the time: 12 “As I have said before, I believe that the Bank can be managed just as well from Trondheim as from Kristiania, and I believe, better, because in the capital city it will be subject to pressure that it is impossible to know how long the board will be able to resist, since there are those in Kristiania, and perhaps also in the government, that may seek to change the Bank’s objectives. Norges Bank should be maintained as an independent institution under the control of the Storting.”  10  See Kydland and Prescott (1977). 11  See Figueiredo (2007). 12  See Borlaug (1999), pp 34-35. 6  BIS Review 111/2008  Geographical distance to markets and government has no significance today, but it may well be said that Bomhoff expressed thoughts that were articulated in more modern terms by Kydland and Prescott 70-80 years later. History has also taught us that fiscal policy has considerable bearing on the role monetary policy can play. If the government's debt is too high, the political authorities have an incentive to increase inflation in order to reduce the real value of the debt. It is then difficult to anchor inflation expectations. No monetary policy can secure the nominal anchor if government spending spins out of control. Monetary policy and fiscal policy must therefore have a common platform.

Nevertheless, the gradual decline in its share of global foreign exchange reserves, which began in the mid-2010s, has gained momentum since 2020, and we are witnessing a renewal of the debate on the dollar's continued role as the anchor of the IMS. Let's not be naive: geopolitical forces are powerfully at work, all the more so since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. China, the world's secondlargest economy, has been expressing its wish to internationalise the renminbi for several years now; this has already materialised in its trade i and could accelerate over the next few years. In particular, the climate transition will lead us to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and considerably increase our consumption of resources for generating cleaner energy. As a result, we are likely to witness a profound reconfiguration of international trade and financial balances and, potentially, of the balance of power between currencies. China, for example, has positioned itself at key points in supply chains, and has a very dominant, even hegemonic, share of certain finished products. ii The use of the Chinese currency is on the rise: in 2022, 7% of transactions on foreign exchange markets had a renminbi leg, iii a figure twice as high as in 2019, thanks in particular to the offshore centres created since 2010. China also plays a major role as a bilateral creditor - with outstanding loans estimated at more than USD 350 billion, iv i.e.
The first is an internationally agreed standard on the total loss absorbing capacity (or TLAC) that globally systemic banks must hold. It will be based on clear principles. But it will be much more than a list of aspirations. It will include a detailed indicative term sheet that will cover the amount; the type, and the location of that loss absorbing capacity. It will establish a level playing field between global systemic banks, while taking into account differences in national resolution regimes. It will ensure globally systemic banks finally have the quantum of total loss absorbing capacity that extensive analysis show balances the benefit of greater resilience against the higher funding costs for the banks that results from the removal of public subsidies. It will set clear roles for home and host regulators in a resolution. It will give host nations the confidence that they won’t again be side-swiped by the failure of a large foreign bank. And, by removing the implicit subsidy that systemic banks have long enjoyed, it will reestablish market discipline. Once implemented, it will make our financial systems more resilient and our economies stronger. The proposal will be subject to a rigorous consultation and Quantitative Impact Study and market survey in 2015 and will take into account insights from the FSB’s ongoing Resolvability Assessment Process for every systemic bank’s resolution plan. The TLAC agreement will be complemented by another agreement just announced yesterday.

This successful launch, to the benefit of 305 million Europeans, represents the crowning achievement of the euro changeover, after the launch of the euro on the financial markets, on 1 January 1999. Both operations were a technical success because they had been meticulously well-prepared by the full body of the Eurosystem, the European Central Bank, and all the euro area national central banks, including Banque de France in France. However, aside from the technical success in itself, the warmth and enthusiasm with which French citizens and other Europeans welcomed the euro, their new currency, was proof that European construction enjoys real popular support that has all too often been underestimated. Let me now turn to the core of my subject today: first, the process for economic reform, second, the perspective of enlargement. *  1. *  *  Economic reforms  Before reviewing the priority topics which require a new impulse, I would like to make a remark on the also often underestimated link between reform and the changeover to the euro : indeed, the introduction of banknotes and coins in euro is a major structural reform in itself, as it constitutes a powerful drive towards restructuring the European economy, and a strong lever to facilitate the comparison of prices, taxes and incomes between the Member states.