samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the January 2013 Inflation Report, Ankara, 29 January 2013. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Welcome to the press conference held to convey the main messages of the first Inflation Report of the year. Today I will talk about recent global and domestic developments besides the CBRT’s inflation forecasts that are accordingly updated. I will now present an overview of the report, which will be published on our web-site shortly. The Report typically summarizes the economic outlook underlying monetary policy decisions, shares our evaluations on macroeconomic developments and presents our medium-term inflation forecasts which were revised in view of the developments in the last quarter, along with our monetary policy stance. In addition to the main text, the Report includes nine boxes entailing significant and up-to-date analyses on various topics. For instance, one of these boxes presents an analysis on the level of credit growth rate which will prove reasonable and healthy for Turkey in the period ahead. Moreover, there is a summary of two papers examining the effects of the CBRT’s latest policies on the expectations and volatility of the foreign exchange rate. In the Report, there are also analyses on the current account balance, global risks, accounting of inflation forecasts, tax adjustments on the tobacco products and the sensitivity of tax revenues on the economic circumstances.

Thanks to this cooperation, our staff capacities were enhanced as regards the handling of responsibilities arising from the implementation of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement, approximation to the ESCB standards, and the challenges that we may encounter when Albania receives the status of a candidate country and starts negotiations of EU accession. Last but not least, financial literacy is of key importance to the Bank of Albania. Thanks to support from and cooperation with the project team, an action plan was designed to promote financial literacy and enhance awareness of market-economy principles across various groups of the society. Also, a system for monitoring financial literacy in schools was set up. Further on, due to complexity of our work and new developments in the banking and financial area, it is clear that the project has strengthened our institution and has helped us cope with new situations. Moreover, the cooperation and communication between our institutions intensified from both viewpoints, professionally and personally. We do live in a global society, where financial developments take place at a rapid pace. Therefore, central banks should possess strong and reliable mechanisms of coordination and communication, which may prepare our institutions to cope with such situations.
The main reason for the growing deficits of recent years is not the ageing of the population, but early retirement. The pension system deficit has been growing rapidly since 1992, when the minimum retirement age requirement was abolished. A new bill to correct this situation has already been approved by parliament. As regards privatization, public enterprises still play a central role in Turkey. We all know that a stronger privatization program would reduce the state’s involvement in commercial and industrial activities, and that this in turn would reduce the budgetary burden of subsidies and deepen the capital markets by encouraging wider ownership of shares. Since privatization has come to be seen as a key element of policies aimed at improving resource allocation, it will be essential to modernize Turkey’s legal and institutional framework for privatization and to bring it more in line with EU norms and the norms now prevailing in some of the region’s more successful transition economies. An adequate legal foundation will be the key element of such reforms. Important steps have recently been taken in this direction, and the constitution has been amended to reduce the legal obstacles obstructing the privatization process. And in order to attract foreign investors who could be interested in privatization, long awaited amendments to the constitution concerning international arbitration have also been approved by parliament. The agricultural sector is especially important in Turkey. It still contributes around 15% of GDP and accounts for about 42% of all employment.

This never happened! Hence, during the 1980s, policymakers realised that economic reforms were needed as a lasting solution to Zambia’s economic woes. For instance, between 1985 and 1987, Zambia undertook an IMF/World Bank-sponsored adjustment programme. This led to a partial decontrol of interest rates and the introduction of a Dutch Foreign Exchange System as a way of allocating scarce foreign exchange through a quasi-market system. It also entailed the removal of some subsidies as a remedy to the persistent fiscal deficits. The reforms proved to be highly unpopular and culminated in public protests and abandonment of the IMF supported reform programme in May 1987. Instead, the Government pursued an indigenous programme called ‘New Economic Recovery Programme’ (NERP) whose theme was “Growth from Own Resources”. Although this programme was successful in some respects, it suffered major setbacks, such as the overvaluation of the Kwacha, soaring inflation, lack of external financing, among others, that made the programme unsustainable, thus prompting the Government to go back to the IMF and agreed on a new IMF supported programme in 1989.
Up to autumn 2008, it appeared that capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy would most likely decline to a normal level, inflation would stabilise around 2½ per cent and the key rate ahead could be held at what we consider to be a normal level – between 5 and 6 per cent. But the outlook was regarded as uncertain. Commodity prices rose and pushed up inflation in many countries. At the same time, wage growth in Norway had become high and productivity growth was slowing. On the other hand, the financial turbulence, if it gained momentum, could have a severe impact on the global economy and our exports. Then, in autumn 2008, the turbulence led to a synchronised financial and real economic crisis in virtually every country in the world. As a result, output and employment are falling, and Norway is no exception. The way forward Since then, the authorities in many countries have shown that they are prepared to use powerful tools to fight the crisis, but financial markets are still under stress. The crisis of confidence and credit rationing are leading to a decline in output. Corporate earnings are falling across the board and the number of unemployed is rising, prompting new rounds of losses on securities and in banks’ books. Every week there is a news story conveying the impression that the action being taken is not enough to stave off the downturn. But the measures being implemented are indeed having an effect.

This is an important point of departure, but we have now presumably learned that imbalances and risk arise when large countries do not sufficiently take into account that their own choices also influence those of others. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) must be given a more important role. The Fund must enhance its surveillance activities and its advice must be acted upon to a greater extent. However, this probably requires changes in the IMF’s governance structure. Countries that are now gaining in economic strength are seeking greater influence. The IMF must also improve its reputation in these countries. Government wealth and saving International capital markets have been a boon to Norway. We drew on borrowing opportunities abroad when the petroleum industry was being built up. We did the same in order to expand welfare schemes and to finance the countercyclical policy of the mid-1970s and the early 1990s. National oil and gas resources are now converted into equities and bonds abroad. Other small industrial countries are also making active use of global capital markets. Our neighbouring country Sweden has recorded large balance-of-payments surpluses. 8  18  G20: group comprising 19 countries and the EU. Member countries are among the world’s largest economies and include members of the G7. BIS Review 16/2009  Switzerland has a high level of saving and a recurring surplus. Australia, on the other hand, has been able to record a deficit since 1975. This year we are celebrating the works of the Nobel Prize-winning author Knut Hamsun.
Moreover, both of these are most effective when supported by a dynamic and adaptive policy regime. •  The simple reality is that countries with robust financial systems, strong fiscal accounts, low inflation, credible and coherent monetary and exchange rate policies, moderate external and internal indebtedness, reasonable current accounts, and adequate domestic savings rates are less likely to be buffeted by financial and economic turbulence. Moreover, when shocks do occur, such countries tend to be far more resilient. •  There is also considerable agreement on many of the elements needed to achieve these goals. This agreement has been reflected, in part, in the development and promulgation of globally accepted standards and codes for best practices in areas ranging from transparency in fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, to public debt management, and core principles for bank supervision. Guiding themes across these various standards have included the importance of consistent disclosure practices and of building stability up from the firm and sector level. The latter is accomplished by encouraging sound risk management and stronger balance sheets, and creating efficient systems of market, legal, and regulatory discipline. •  But the learning process continues. For example, in this country, recent experiences have brought to light the need to do more to strengthen corporate accounting and disclosure standards, particularly with regard to guarantees and complex financial arrangements, such as those funded offshore or through special-purpose entities. •  Our ongoing efforts to revise the Basel Capital Accord also reflect a learning process.

This, in essence, is attributable to the prices of imported goods, which are down by comparison to their high levels in 2008. However, inflation for domestic goods and services, despite weakening during the year, will remain above 1%. BIS Review 77/2009  3  The outlook for the following years has been very slightly adjusted upwards. We shall return to this point in a few moments. Monetary policy decision At our monetary policy assessment in March, we identified a number of elements that led us to foresee negative inflation for 2009 and a risk of deflation for 2010 and 2011. In view of this threat, we relaxed monetary conditions by taking supplementary measures. We reduced the three-month Libor target range by 25 basis points to 0–0.75%, aiming for a rate of 0.25%. In order to achieve this, we granted longer-term repo credits and concluded foreign exchange swaps. To prevent the Swiss franc from further appreciating against the euro, we purchased foreign currency on the foreign exchange market; we also purchased bonds issued by private sector issuers to foster a decline in capital market risk premia. All in all, these operations achieved their objective. The situation is gradually normalising, although it remains very vulnerable. The risks are still clearly skewed to the downside and are major. Given these conditions, and in view of the inflation forecast, we consider that the time for a correction has not yet come, but that an additional relaxation of monetary conditions is not necessary either.
Ardian Fullani: Recent economic developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Press Conference on Monetary Policy Decision of Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, Tirana, 29 July 2009. *  *  *  The Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, at its meeting of July 29, 2009, after getting acquainted with the latest economic-financial developments at home and abroad and analysing prudentially the confidence indicators, banking system expectations and forecasts made by Bank of Albania’s staff about eight coming quarters, decided to keep the base interest rate, i.e., the weekly repurchase agreement rate unchanged, at 5.75 percent. This decision of the Supervisory Council is based on the following arguments: The economic developments in the first half posed strong challenges to the Albania economy. The global crisis affected our economy, swinging the factors and balances that have sustained the economic growth, thus testing the immunity and self-adjusting mechanisms of the economy and raising certain complex questions to economic agents and macroeconomic policies. The economic recession hitting a major part of our trading partners is accompanied by the fall of trade exchanges and of foreign currency inflows. Rise of uncertainty in global financial markets has shaken the confidence in the financial system, exerting pressure on the tightening of financial conditions in Albania. Both these factors are reflected in reduced consumption, exports and investments, leading to economic activity slowdown and exerting pressure on fiscal indicators of budget revenues and budget deficit.

Thereupon these countries have been increasingly affected by the crisis. According to IMF, the emerging countries of Eastern Europe are estimated to incur a contraction of about 5 percent during this year. The Albanian economy, in the face of this unfavourable environment, has recorded a comparatively positive performance. There are few data on the real economy. The Bank of  BIS Review 94/2009  1  Albania estimates that a positive economic growth has characterised the first half of year. On the others hand, low growth of credit and money supply, deteriorated business and consumer confidence indicators, slow-down of budget revenues and specific indicators of certain economy sectors, suggest that the economic growth rate has decelerated. It is still early to draw conclusions on the economic performance over the course of 2009 and onward. The Bank of Albania deems that the premises to keep positive economic growth rates in the country are present, among which the macroeconomic and financial stability of the country is of primary importance. Economic activity at home is carried out under the presence of favourable consumer price stability. It is sustained by a soothing tendency of monetary conditions and by an expansionist fiscal policy over this period. The Bank of Albania cut the base interest rate in January and undertook liquidity-injecting operations, raising its quantity in the market.
It has fat-tails, with the probability  25 20  mass of big rises or falls larger than implied by a normal distribution. For example, the  15  probability of a 10% movement in house prices  10  in any given year is twice as large as normality  5  would imply. 0 -5  Capturing these cyclical dynamics, and fattailed properties, of the housing market is not straightforward using aggregate models. These models typically rely, as inputs, on a small number of macro-economic variables, such as incomes and interest rates. They have  -10 1846 1866 1886 1906 1926 1946 1966 1986 2006 Source: Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2016); Bank calculations. Notes: The chart shows the Hodrick-Prescott trend in annual house price growth data (where lambda=6.25). Data during WWI and WWII are interpolated. a mixed track record in explaining and predicting housing market behaviour. One reason for this poor performance may be that the housing market comprises not one but many sub-markets - a rental market, sales market, a mortgage market etc. Moreover, there are multiple players operating in these markets - renters, landlords, owner-occupiers, mortgage lenders and regulators – each with distinctive characteristics, such as age, income, gearing and location. 27  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  27  It is the interaction between these multiple agents in multiple markets which shapes the dynamics of the housing market. Aggregate models suppress these within-system interactions.

In general, a system comprising three bodies undergoing motion via a force cannot be solved analytically – the “three-body problem”. And there are many problems in physics which involve the interaction of “particles” in ways which are complex and non-deterministic. 13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  13  These features have resulted in ABMs being extremely widely used in the physical sciences, at various different levels of resolution. At the micro scale, some of the earliest applications of ABMs were to study plasmas – charged particles which constantly interact. Plasmas are the fourth state of matter after solids, liquids and gases. They are prime ABM candidates because they exhibit rich, non-linear, complex behaviour. In 1966, Edward Teller wrote a paper which described how to build a plasma ABM with 32 interacting particles (Brush, Sahlin and Teller (1966)). Even with “only” 32 interacting agents, this was a formidable computational challenge. But the advent of parallel and high performance computing since the 1990s has changed the scale of plasma particle simulations. Simulations today regularly use as many as 10  9  computational agents (Turrell et al (2015)). These plasma ABMs have found widespread application, micro and macro. At the micro level, they have been used to help identify and kill cancer cells with pinpoint accuracy, while leaving healthy surrounding cells unharmed (Bulanov et al (2002)).
The overall financial condition and performance of the Non Bank Financial Institutions (NBFI) sector was rated fair during the quarter under review. The sector was adequately capitalised with “fair” asset quality while earnings and liquidity performance were also rated “fair”. However, the leasing subsector reported regulatory capital deficiencies. During the quarter under review, the FinScope 2009 Consumer Survey report was launched to the public in Lusaka and Ndola. The survey findings indicated that agricultural activities still remained a major source of income for most Zambians yet the sector was largely underserved. Overall, there was a marginal increase of 3.6 percentage points in financial access to 37.3% in 2009 from 33.7% in 2005. Developments in banking, currency and payment systems During the quarter, there was a continued improvement in the availability of electronic payment options. The number of Point of Sale (POS) terminals increased by 3.8% to 1,033 terminals (Quarter 2 2010: 995). The volume of POS transactions also increased by 15% to 199,817 (Quarter 2 2010: 173,606) while the values increased by 13% to K86 billion (Quarter 2 2010: K76 billion). The number of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) increased by 4% to 468 ATMs (Quarter 2 2010: 450). The volume of ATM transactions also increased by 11% to 6,333,073 (Quarter 2 2010: 5,697,122). The Bank would like to continue urging the public to use electronic payment methods as they provide a more convenient, safer, efficient and effective way of making payments.

Introduction This brief examines monetary policy implementation and its outcomes in the third quarter of 2010. The brief also reviews other economic and financial sector developments. In the conclusion, it provides an inflation outlook for the fourth quarter of 2010. Monetary policy The focus of monetary policy during the third quarter of 2010 continued to be the achievement of the end-year annual inflation target of 8.0%. Consistent with this inflation outturn, annual overall inflation was programmed at 7.3% for end-September 2010. To achieve this, the Bank of Zambia utilised largely Open Market Operations to maintain reserve money within the programmed growth path. This was to be supported by the  BIS Review 148/2010  5  auctioning of Government securities and the maintenance of the fiscal deficit within the programme limits. Inflation Quarterly overall inflation increased to 1.6% in September 2010 from the 1.0% recorded in June 2010, but was slightly lower than the 1.7% recorded in the third quarter of 2009. This outturn was mainly attributed to the rise in food inflation to –0.1% from the –1.7% recorded in the previous quarter, as non-food inflation slowed down to 3.2% from 3.7% during the same period. However, on an annual basis, overall inflation was little changed at 7.7% in September 2010 when compared to the 7.8% recorded in June 2010, but was above the projected 7.3% for the period.
In many respects, this will be a matter of trial and error and, quite simply,  18  BIS Review 68/2010  seeing which solutions seem to work. One step in that direction is Finansinspektionen’s recent decision to recommend a ceiling for the loan-to-value ratio of new mortgages. Something that can, however, be said with certainty is that we will probably never completely be able to prevent financial crises – here, history speaks all too clearly. But I do believe that now, when our awareness of the problems is unusually great, we have the chance to design regulations and frameworks that will at least make these crises a little rarer and a little less dramatic. BIS Review 68/2010  19

The devaluation of the denar would cause additional distortions in our economy, because of the following: -  the structure of trade of the Macedonian economy characterises with high reliance of the export on the import of raw materials and manufacturing supplies, low representation of import goods that could be substituted with domestic products (machines and other equipment), weak price ellasticity of certain type of import demand (especially energy products), due to which the devaluation of the domestic currency will not reduce the problem of the structural trade deficit;  -  On the other hand, the negative implications, that can be seen through the transmission effects of the devaluation of domestic currency on prices, further psychological pressures and the opening up of a new cycle of expectations for an additional depreciation of the value of the currency, will certainly appear and they will represent a potential threat for the price stability;  -  Additional unfavorable element is the currency mismatch, i.e. the net indebtedness of domestic economy abroad, which clearly implies substantial negative effects from any possible depreciation of the domestic currency. Therefore, the reaction of the monetary policy, by increasing the interest rate, is directed towards stabilization of the foreign exchange market, further maintenance of the foreign reserves at adequate level and continuation of the policy of stable foreign exchange rate. Obviously, the succesfull maintenance of the external balance imposes the necessity of appropriate and well coordinated measures by all the carriers of the macroeconomic policies.