samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A tolerance interval of 1 percentage point on either side of the target was included mainly to make it clear that deviations would probably occur but also that they should be limited. The target was tied to the consumer price index, the measure of inflation that was most familiar and reliable, besides being published regularly. There is a great deal to say about this — the choice of the target’s level and the choice of index — in the light of our experience and the academic literature that accumulated in the 1990s. I shall have to be brief, however, because otherwise there will be no time for the more practical issues about our procedures, which is today’s theme. So here are three short comments: •  The appropriate level of inflation is one debatable point. There are arguments for a somewhat higher level as well as a somewhat lower. With our present knowledge, this is ultimately a matter of judgement and so far there has been nothing to persuade me that there are any grounds at present for changing our target. As I see it, the most important thing is to set up a distinct target so that a given rate of inflation is anchored among all economic agents, be they households or firms, employers or employees. In this we have been very successful. •  The choice of an index is a complicated matter.

Over the last 6 years the cumulative productivity growth in Estonia, relative to its main trading partners, has amounted to 25 per cent. The corresponding CPI-based real exchange rate appreciation amounts to 22 per cent. The share of current and future EU member states in Estonian exports is about 80%. By now, Estonian economy is strongly integrated into the European economic area. Can we say that the restructuring of our economy has been completed? III. On the way to Europe  What are the challenges ahead? For Estonia, like for all new member states, the only possible way to join the euro system is to do it in full compliance with the letter and spirit of the EU Treaty. Speaking about the present accession countries as a group, it can be said that the key challenge of the policy maker is similar everywhere - to foster real convergence and at the same time maintain macroeconomic stability. But although the underlying processes are the same for all, earlier national economic policy choices - and also the size of the country in question - play a very significant role. Thus, the optimal approach to euro area membership can in no case be a uniform one suitable for one and everybody. ERM II provides, in principle, a much-needed buffer zone before a country's EMU entry. However, there are obvious risks involved.
Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and now professor at Princeton University, argues that “a central bank that speaks with a cacophony of voices may, in effect, have no voice at all”. 29 There is also another argument in favour of unanimous decisions. Central banks are important social institutions, which should not be too closely linked to individuals but have a  27  See Alan S. Blinder (2007): “Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?”, in European Journal of Political Economy, 23, no. 1, pp. 106-127 and Alan S. Blinder (2008): “On the design of monetary policy committees”, Norges Bank Working Paper, 2008/6. 28  The Executive Board at Norges Bank consists of seven members, appointed by the King in Council. The Governor and Deputy Governor serve as chairman and deputy chairman, respectively, of the Executive Board. They are appointed to full-time positions for a term of six years. The other five members are appointed for four-year terms and are not employees of Norges Bank. 29  Alan S. Blinder (2007): “Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?”, in European Journal of Political Economy, 23, no. 1, p. 114. BIS Review 140/2009  7  public identity. The institution and its mandate should take precedence over the individuals who occupy positions for limited periods. 30 There is no formula for deciding which system is best. Each system has its strengths and weaknesses. Detailed meeting minutes ensure accountability among committee members. This may give rise to good incentives.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Thanks to the Chinese leadership, the spirit of connectivity and cooperation is further enhanced through the One Belt One Road initiative. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is an added funding impetus to ensure that there will be physical infrastructure connectivity, laying the strong foundation for shared economic prosperity. China’s growing economic ties with Thailand and ASEAN have become stronger in many aspects. China has been the largest trading partner of Thailand since 2013. Thanks to the China-ASEAN FTA, China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 20092, while ASEAN has been the third-largest trading partner of China since 20113. China has been one of Thailand’s top foreign investors for the past nine years4. And in terms of tourism, almost AFCA follows the philosophy of openness and inclusiveness as well as the mission of “connectivity, cooperation, joint governance, and shared benefits” 2 ASEAN Secretariat: ASEAN Trade Balance (in $ Million) by Country. 3 World Bank: China Trade at a glance. http://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/CHN 4 Foreign Direct Investment Position Classified by Country $ Combining Hong Kong and China FDI values. BOT. 1  1  nine million Chinese tourists visited Thailand last year, the highest number from any country in the world. It is clear that trade and investment connectivity between China and ASEAN have been well established and have great potential to expand much further. However, financial connectivity in our region has yet to catch up with trade and investment connectivity.

Opening Ceremony of Asian Financial Cooperation Association (AFCA) Keynote Speech by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand Beijing, July 24, 2017 Vice President Mr. Ma Kai, Vice Premier of China Mr. Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) Mr. Chen Yuan, Vice Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Mr. Jin Liqun, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Mr. Norman Chan, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Mr. Tian Guoli, Chairman of AFCA Excellencies, Executives of financial institutions, Ladies and Gentlemen. A very good afternoon to you all, Today’s opening ceremony of the Asian Financial Cooperation Association (AFCA) is a very auspicious occasion, and I am honoured to be a part of this historical event. I would like to congratulate the Chinese government for successfully establishing AFCA – a new forum, which I am certain, will play a significant role in enhancing financial connectivity and cooperation within Asia. I would therefore like to take this opportunity to share with you my thoughts on how we can further enhance financial connectivity to ensure sustained shared benefits – as stated in AFCA’s mission1. Ladies and gentlemen, People have long been connected by trade along the ancient Silk Road dating back more than 2,000 years ago. Today in modern times, many trade and investment agreements between China and other Asian countries have promoted close economic ties in the region.
The subsequent recovery has been remarkably drawn out and almost 10 years on, you could say that we have been living through a Great Transition. 2  I would like to highlight three pivotal transitional forces that have shaped our economic and political landscape. First, after decades of rapid expansion, world trade has slowed down considerably. During 2012 to 2015, world trade volumes grew at around 3 percent per annum, much less than the pre-crisis average of 7 percent for 1987-2007. Cyclical factors have certainly been at work, but the slower pace of growth relative to world GDP points to deeper structural forces at work. Chief among these is the waning impact from the integration of China and central and eastern European countries into the world economy, as well as the diminished room for further international fragmentation of production through global-value-chain trades. More speculatively, rising protectionism may have also dampened trade in recent years. Nevertheless, the level of trade integration across the world is as high as it has ever been. Second, economies the world over have seen a rising contribution of the service sector to growth. A key driver of this transformation has been technological innovation, especially in digital communication. For the world as a whole, the share of services as a proportion of GDP is now as high as 70 percent. This shift has not been confined to advanced economies but can also be seen in emerging markets.

Navigating the Great Transition: An Emerging Market Perspective Speech by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob Governor of the Bank of Thailand School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University October 5, 2016  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a pleasure for me to be here in New York and to have a chance to participate in the policy discussion at SIPA. Given the increasingly complex policy challenges facing the global community, the contribution that SIPA makes in educating future leaders to serve the global public interest is critical. I would like to thank Professor Ito for inviting me. He was one of my early mentors at graduate school and I have benefitted from his many insights ever since. This coming weekend I will be attending the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. As you know, this is one of the biggest global forums for addressing issues related to the global economy and world financial market. The discussions will be especially pertinent this year given the complex and highly unpredictable state of the world that we face. Former premier Wen Jiabao once described China’s growth performance as “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable”. This seems like an apt description of the global economy at this juncture. Unstable because the proliferation of popular discontent fueled by rising income inequality amidst ongoing international conflicts have greatly elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Unbalanced because with anemic recovery of advanced economies, much of the growth in 1  the global economy continues to be driven by emerging markets.
As officers at the frontline of risk management in the Bank, you are expected to be conversant with the risk management process that is being implemented at the Bank, and there is no better platform to provide that opportunity than now! To this end, the programme of that this workshop is organized in such a way as to be highly interactive. Therefore, I urge you to feel free to ask as many questions as possible. With these few words, it is now my singular honor and privilege to declare this workshop officially open. I thank you. 2  BIS Review 71/2008

Jul. Oct . Jan.  Apr. Jul. Oct . Source: JP Morgan Chase & Co and Merrill Lynch. (a) The difference between: US CDX crossover index and a BB rated US corporate bond index; and European iTraxx crossover index and a European BB-B rated corporate bond index. This is because the iTraxx crossover index has a lower average rating than the CDX crossover.
Ravi Menon: Singapore’s financial centre – resilience, dynamism, trust Speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, to the Foreign Correspondents Association of Singapore, Singapore, 6 September 2016. *  *  *  Good afternoon. I accepted your invitation to speak not without some trepidation. •  The Foreign Correspondents Association in any country makes for a formidable audience. •  But I figured that if you were going to write about Singapore’s financial sector or economy, it might as well be with at least some residue at the back of your minds of what MAS has to say. •  In any case, having partaken of your generous luncheon meal, it is too late to escape now. Before I go any further, some disclosures: •  If you came for this luncheon expecting to hear about 1MDB, I am sorry I will not be mentioning that word or anything associated with it for the rest of my remarks. •  I am also sorry I have no juicy announcements to make. For central bankers and regulators, no news is generally good news. •  So, if you want to slip away quietly, now would be a good time to do so. I will pretend I did not notice. This afternoon, I want to share my thoughts with you on how the MAS sees the financial sector. Many of you, especially from abroad, are sometimes intrigued by MAS’ role as both regulator and developer of the financial sector.

Now, onto this scene lands crypto and digital money. Note, I did not describe crypto – in its unbacked form – as money. It isn't. For money to fulfil its function as a means of  2/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  payment it requires stability of value. This is clearly not true of unbacked crypto. It could be a bet, a highly speculative investment or a collectible, but note that it has no intrinsic value, so buyer be very aware. More interesting is the creation of so-called 'stable coins' or digital currency, which purport at least to be money as a means of payment. But, as we have seen, they do not have assured value, and in the work we have done at the Bank of England we have concluded that the public should expect assured value in digital money, and confidence in this is needed to underpin financial stability. For stable coins to function as money they will need to have the characteristics of, and be regulated as, inside money. Meanwhile, a lot of work is going on to assess the future of digital money, including Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Digital money is not new. Digital money in the form of commercial bank deposits and commercial bank reserves at the central bank have existed for many decades. What is new is the idea of broadly available retail digital money.
We must stick to the reforms that work, in particular the tax credit for competitiveness and investment (CICE) and the Responsibility and Solidarity Pact (RSP), and we need to go further still. The unemployed and youth cannot afford to wait. There are at least four reforms that are a priority, because our neighbours successfully implemented them and they are fully compatible with the European social model that we share: the large-scale development of apprenticeships; simplifications, starting with labour law; the decentralisation of social dialogue to the company level, i.e. as close as possible to the economic and human reality; and lastly, the development of entrepreneurship. Second, we need to mobilise both public and private investment in order to take advantage of the exceptional financing conditions created by our monetary policy. To do so, we need to put the Juncker Plan back on the table. The Juncker Plan has yielded results, but they are insufficient. To support the revival of this Plan, I have proposed the creation of a true European “Financing and Investment Union”. To achieve this, we must combine the Juncker Plan, the European Commission’s plan for a Capital Markets Union, and the Banking Union. The aim is to create synergies in order to achieve three ambitious goals: better channel euro area household savings to productive investment and equity; better pool risks across countries; and thus better finance innovation and the networks our economy needs. This is the direction we should take now.

The new comprehensive package of measures that we adopted on 10 March 2016 reflects two main objectives: first, to return to inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This is not the case at present since inflation stood at –0.2% in the euro area in February, taking account of the sharp decline in oil prices, but it should return to positive territory in the second half of 2016. The other objective is to bolster the financing of the real economy and to protect it from the pressures related to market volatility. The new series of targeted refinancing operations extension of the asset purchase programme, for its part, will be of particular benefit to large French corporations. We are convinced that these additional measures will deliver concrete results, as did the successive measures we have implemented since June 2014. The latter have indeed boosted lending to businesses, while lowering the cost of credit, and made a 0.3% contribution to French growth in 2015, or even 0.4% according to INSEE. This represents about 80,000 additional jobs for the economy. We are therefore consistent in our objective, and ready to act using the right instruments. But we also remain vigilant as to the possible risks that our monetary policy could generate.
What was new over recent decades was the scale of its activities, which is closely related to the rapid expansion of securitisation. The securitisation of previously illiquid items in banks’ balance sheets gave perhaps the strongest boost to the financial sector. Securitisation allows traditional banking assets to be transformed into tradable instruments, thus creating tradable assets. It acts as a multiplier of negotiable financial claims or, more simply, a multiplier of finance. BIS Review 83/2010  1  Why was securitisation so essential to the expansion of shadow banks? The short answer to this question is that shadow banking serves as an intermediary for wholesale finance. In this segment of the financial system, lenders have large – and lumpy – financial resources to place with intermediaries for short periods of time, with no protection from formal deposit insurance mechanisms. This lack of formal insurance – since deposits are too large to be eligible for protection under national laws – calls for an informal or – I should rather say – market-based system of protection. This is precisely what the securitisation of assets can do: it can give financial intermediaries enough tradable securities to pledge as collateral for the large – lumpy – loans that they receive in the wholesale shadow-banking segment of their activities. The run-up to the crisis clearly showed that shadow banking and securitisation are not only interrelated but also that they interact.

For example, Adrian and Shin (2008) demonstrate that the balance sheets of US broker/dealers expand when monetary policy is accommodative. 6 Similar evidence is provided for the US repo market by Gorton and Metrick (2009), who found that activity started to increase significantly from 2001 – that is, at a time when monetary policy in the US was relatively loose following the bursting of the dot-com bubble. 7 Acharya and Schnabl (2010) provide similar evidence related to the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market. 8 In summary, if the process that has been set in motion under the aegis of the G20 has the potential to place a whole new segment of finance under regulatory scrutiny and oversight, the new collateral-based finance can give a central bank stronger influence over financial and macroeconomic conditions more broadly. 5. Monetary policy in a high-debt environment  I mentioned earlier that collateral is likely to play a growing role in the functioning of capital markets. Demand for collateral is thus likely to increase. But, given the collapse of securitisation activity during the crisis, we could imagine that the current decline in the creation of securitised assets might become a permanent feature of the new landscape. There will be fewer ABSs created out of bank books. Sovereign debt will certainly be widespread. It will probably replace ABSs in the collateralisation of secured lending. Unlike in the past, the risk characteristics of this type of debt instrument will be more graduated than was considered possible only few years ago.
We – at the Riksbank – have been publishing stress tests of individual banks since 2006. With a track record of reasonable stress tests, the credibility of the methodology and the results has continued to increase during the crisis. Building confidence in the long-run: liquidity and capital regulation The financial crisis of the past two years has been very costly. We must ensure that this crisis does not repeat itself. Lawmakers, central banks and financial regulators have a daunting task ahead of them. Regulatory and supervisory reform is needed. I have great hope that we will take this opportunity to create a safer and sounder financial system. In this respect, I would like to bring up two important issues for a safer financial system: liquidity and capital regulation. Liquidity or, rather, illiquidity has been in the centre of this crisis. Banks will always be exposed to liquidity risk due to the maturity mismatch, as this is a central feature of banking. However, in the run up to the crisis, this maturity mismatch increased too much. Banks relied on the misguided perception that short-term financing would be available from liquid markets. A key lesson from the crisis is that a liquid market can very quickly become illiquid. The conclusion is that liquidity must be regulated more firmly. Banks need to hold a buffer of liquid assets large enough to allow them to weather a liquidity shock.

You can take a look at our first example of this – the November Inflation Report –online, at www.inflationreport.co.uk. This afternoon’s event will showcase a selection of the materials we are planning to run alongside these changes in our communications to help explain to people about the Bank’s work. To bring that to life, the first session will kick off with three of my colleagues – Ben, Sam and Jon –explaining to you what the Bank is doing on some topical issues, things that are influencing the Bank’s policies and the role we play in the economy right now. The questions they will answer are:   Why did the Bank change interest rates earlier this month?   What we are doing to keep banks safe? ; and    What are we doing in response to the vote to leave the EU to ensure the Brexit process is as smooth as possible? Through our dialogue with you today, we will enrich our understanding of how we can meet our objective more effectively, and we hope you will gain a better understanding of what the Bank does and how it is going about it. 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  Before handing back to Ranvir, I’d like to thank Speakers for Schools, We Are Futures, Economy.org and Rethinking Economics – the key stakeholders that have helped us with this morning’s events and who have been working with us to develop our educational resources.