samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the left-hand graph in Figure 6, the conclusion of new purchases is marked by the disappearance of the blue bars, and the right-hand graph reflects how the bond holdings can be expected to be gradually scaled back. 3 See “The Riksbank’s strategy for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy” article in Monetary Policy Report, December 2017. 6 [13]  Figure 6. The bond portfolio can be expected to decrease in the longer term We have concluded new purchases and are reinvesting until further notice 80 70 60  Reinvestments of coupons Reinvestment of principal payments New purchases  80 70 60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019  Expected gradual reduction in the portfolio if reinvestments were to cease  0  Note. Left-hand graph. Nominal amounts, SEK billion. The development of reinvestments from mid-2018 onwards is a forecast and refers to nominal amounts. The final amounts will depend on current market prices. Right-hand graph. Nominal amounts, SEK billion. Forecast up until June 2019, after that a technical projection with the assumption that no further reinvestments are made. The vertical line marks the shift between forecast and technical projection. Source: The Riksbank  The purpose of the bond purchases has been to support general economic development and to safeguard the inflation target.

The repo rate is expected to be increased very slowly – we are “taking our foot of the gas” rather than “applying the brakes” According to our forecast in December, the next interest rate increase is expected during the second half of this year. Thereafter, the forecast indicates that the interest rate will be increased by about 0.5 percentage points per year. From a historical perspective, this is a very slow rate-hike cycle. We can see this in the lefthand figure in Figure 4, which compares with previous periods when the repo rate has been raised. 1 Note that this figure shows the change in the repo rate compared with the initial position, and the horizontal axis indicates the number of days that have passed. The repo rate is expected to have risen by about 1.5 percentage points during the whole forecast period. In the right-hand figure, we see that, in the end of the forecast period, the fourth quarter of 2021, the repo rate is expected only to have reached a level of 1 per cent. 1 See also the article “What usually happens when the repo rate is raised?” in Monetary Policy Report, October 2018. 4 [13]  Figure 4.
Well-crafted innovation can reduce market concentration, yield new risk-mitigating technologies, and increase the scope for electronic settlement in central bank money: all of which enhances, not reduces, financial stability. So we are open, not closed, to such advances. At the same time, we make no apologies for having a relentless focus on stability and resilience, and have 1  previously set out the criteria against which we assess change in the payments landscape . Indeed, households and companies expect nothing less. Surveys regularly show safety to be at the very top of people’s expectations from payments. No amount of real-time, API-enabled, mobile front ends can make up for the prospect – however remote – that one’s money might be lost or mislaid; or that a failure in one part of the payments network might bring down other parts of the banking system. Judged against those yardsticks, the UK’s payment systems have actually performed very well in recent years: combining the innovation of Faster Payments, Direct Debits and widespread use of online banking (to give just three examples) with a resilience record which – though by no means perfect – stands in contrast to some other parts of the financial system. So why the need for change? There is a one word answer to that, and that is: complexity. The UK has world-beating technologies. But too many sit in silos.

A payments strategy for the 21st century  Remarks made by Andrew Hauser, Executive Director, Banking, Payments and Financial Resilience  Payment Strategy Forum “Launch of the Final Strategy”, London 29 November 2016  1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak to you today at the launch of the PSF’s Payments Strategy st  for the 21 century. I want to start by emphasising that this is not the Bank of England’s strategy – or the UK authorities’ as a whole. And that in fact is its great merit: because it has been drawn up by a genuine partnership of those who actually provide and use retail payments services, with the interests of those users uppermost in their minds. But that doesn’t mean the Bank has been ‘hands off’, or lukewarm over the direction of travel. Quite the reverse. We have a deep interest in, and responsibility for, maintaining the stability of sterling payments. First, through our statutory responsibility for the supervision of the major payments schemes. Second, by ensuring that all material payments either settle in, or are backed by, central bank money – the safest form of settlement asset. And, third, through our role as member of some schemes as a bank in our own right. It is sometimes said that a focus on stability impedes innovation. But there is no reason why that has to be true.
Almost half of the forecasting error in the Banco de España projections in the first eight months of 2022 is due to the direct effects of the greater energy price growth. And this is despite the measures adopted to contain the rise in these prices having lowered headline inflation by 1.8 pp in that period. 5. The duration and scale of the increase in energy prices, and the concurrent rises in other commodity prices, have made it difficult for firms to absorb the higher energy prices. Thus, they have gradually fed into the prices of other goods and services, doing so more forcefully than before the pandemic.2 These “indirect effects” are estimated to have contributed onethird of the increase in underlying inflation in the euro area and Spain in August (10% of headline inflation). 6. Food commodity prices have also surged, reaching historically very high levels, although they have eased since their March peak. Such higher prices are attributable to strong global demand, adverse climate factors and the higher costs of international shipping and some key inputs, such as fuel and fertilizers.3 Between December 2021 and August 2022 annual food price inflation increased by 8.1 pp in Spain (7.4 pp in the euro area),4 such that 30% of inflation in August was attributable to food (3.2 pp) (25% in the euro area).

In light of recent international experiences of bank failures, the traditional intervention criterion of lending to “solvent but illiquid” banks has been put to the test as it becomes increasingly difficult to determine the necessity for intervention as well as the method and timing of such measures. The extension of such support will therefore be based on a careful balance of various considerations, which include amongst others, its potential systemic implications, the cost of the intervention, the cost of failures, avoiding disruptions in the functioning of markets and finally its potential social implications. In order to avoid long term moral hazard, the lender of last resort is based on the rigorous application of viability tests and the “first loss principle”, where losses are borne by the shareholders of the financial institutions. The operational framework also needs sufficient flexibility, in terms of policy instruments, acceptable collateral and range of counterparties, to deal with exceptional market conditions. Going forward, cooperation arrangements for dealing with crises will continue to be further enhanced. This includes further strengthening current cooperation arrangements among the various regulatory agencies in Malaysia, as well further advancing cross-border cooperation in the region. Indeed, significant strides have already been taken to strengthen the cooperative framework between central banks and supervisory agencies in the region to promote financial stability at the regional level. These have included the establishment of various regional mechanisms for cooperation and coordination in surveillance, information sharing and crisis management.
Lars Heikensten: The integration of European banking - some regulatory challenges Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the seminar “The Integration of Financial Markets in Europe”, at the “Riksdagshuset” (Swedish Parliament), Stockholm, 21 April 2004. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to share my views on the integration of financial markets in Europe. We have just heard about the positive role capital markets might have in fostering economic growth and stability. We have also heard about how the regulatory process has been changed to promote the growth of an integrated European market for capital and securities. It is my hope that also the area of bank regulation will become part of this simplified process. It is certainly needed. Compared to the European securities market, the banking market is lagging many years behind in terms of integration. True, large companies may have access to foreign bank funding as well as to international debt and equity markets. When it comes to choosing your bank at the retail level, however, Swedish households and small and medium sized companies are left to a market which is to more than 90 percent dominated by Swedish banks. This situation is shared by most other EU countries. This is not a problem in itself. Swedish (or, in general, domestic) banks might very well be excellent. However, most of us tend to believe that cross-border integration, just as trade, is something good because it increases competition.

Hence, the insignificant degree of EU cross-border banking integration is probably partly explained by economic factors. However, the existence of large differences in profitability and efficiency between individual EU countries’ banking systems indicates potential for cross-border expansion also within the EU. In competitive industries, such differences do not exist for a longer period, as less efficient firms would be pushed out of business or acquired by more efficient competitors. These wide profitability gaps should attract more efficient entrants. Against this background, it is interesting to note that many European banks seem more attracted to the US banking market. The US banking system is by many considered as the most developed and competitive in the world. You would indeed expect EU-based banks to find it easier to expand within the EU than into the US. Still, several major European banks have much larger retail operations in the US than they have in neighbouring European countries, e.g. HSBC, ABN Amro, and BNP Paribas. One cannot avoid the question of whether larger obstacles to cross border banking exist in Europe than in the US. Regulatory schemes and practices still a major problem for integration Given the gradual increase in harmonisation of EU banking and financial sector legislation, it is perhaps surprising to find regulation to be one of the most important barriers to further integration. In my view, there are two issues here. First, although the general legal framework has been converging, the practical implementation of rules and regulations still differs widely between member states.
Finally, a reduced supply of government bonds could have important implications for collateral markets, in which they currently play a key role. Wider use of non-government securities as collateral could have the result that a flight to quality in a crisis might leave lenders exposed to credit risk, or borrowers to liquidity risk as they try to meet margin calls. Larger haircuts can address this risk in part. More generally, wider use of exposure netting through well-managed and prudently designed central counterparties may be desirable in future. Conclusion I think it is too early to judge how material these issues will become or whether private sector solutions could emerge. Bringing together my themes, however, it is clear that credit risk management will become an even more important issue for the securities markets. Your challenge will be to understand and manage these risks prudently and profitably. Our challenge, at the Bank of England, will be to follow market developments closely as part of our financial stability role. BIS Review 15/2001  5

Governor Subbarao has been a staunch advocate of RBI’s pro-active role in addressing financial inclusion to help those underserved. As the world’s second most populous country, India has faced an uphill task to expand financial inclusion, especially to individuals in remote areas. But the numbers speak for themselves: in 2011, just 35 percent of adults have bank accounts according to the World Bank’s Global Findex Report. By 2017 that number has dramatically risen to 80 percent. In his keynote address this morning Governor Subbarao will share with us India’s remarkable experience on improving financial inclusion by using digital technologies. Please join me in giving a warm welcome to Governor Subbarao. 4/4
There are also other dissimilarities between the functioning of our respective economies and between our institutional frameworks which may shed some light on the differences between our monetary policy regimes:  11  BIS Review 105/2000  •  Denmark has a long history of a fixed exchange rate which inspires credibility;  •  Denmark’s membership of ERM II provides exchange rate policy with an institutional anchor;  •  Denmark has more stable terms of trade than Norway. Moreover, there is strong and well-deserved confidence in the ability of fiscal policy to stabilise economic growth in Denmark. The most substantial changes in the Norwegian terms of trade are due to fluctuating oil prices. Variations in Denmark’s terms of trade are negligible. In this sense the Norwegian economy has more in common with countries like New Zealand and Australia, which are also large exporters of commodities. A substantial change in the terms of trade  BIS Review 105/2000  12  translates into considerable changes in these countries’ earnings and balance of payments. Over the years this has resulted in sizeable exchange rate fluctuations. The exchange rate is a buffer against changes in the terms of trade. While a country like Denmark has maintained a stable exchange rate, commodity-producing countries typically experience fluctuations in the exchange rate in tandem with changes in the terms of trade. In New Zealand, Australia and many other countries monetary policy is oriented directly towards price stability, and these countries permit short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Auerbach, Alan J, Jagadesh Gokhale, Laurence J Kotlikoff and Erling Steigum Jr: “Generational Accounting in Norway: Is Norway Overconsuming Its Petroleum Wealth?” Report No 75, Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen 1993. Bernhardsen, Tom and Øistein Røisland (2000): “Factors affecting the krone exchange rate”, Economic Bulletin No 4 2000 (to be published).-{}Report to the Storting No 1 (2000-2001), National Budget for 2001. BIS Review 105/2000  16
They may also give rise to abrupt shifts or discontinuities in system behaviour if pushed beyond a critical threshold or tipping point (Wilson and Kirman (2016)). These complex patterns are often referred to as “emergent” behaviours because they “emerge” without any outside stimulus. And because these emergent patterns arise from complex interactions, they are often difficult or impossible to predict. 21  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  21  To bring this to life, imagine that instead of a single wooden rocking horse, the system instead comprised a pack of wild horses. Taking a stick to one of them will generate “emergent” behaviour. It may result in them all staying put, one of them fleeing or all of them fleeing. And if they do all flee, this will be in a direction, and to a destination, impossible to predict. These emergent behaviours depend crucially on behavioural interactions within the system. In the natural sciences, examples of these emergent behaviours are legion. They include the dynamics of sandpiles which “self-organise” as each new grain of sand is added until a tipping point is reached and collapse occurs (Bak, Tang and Wiesenfeld (1988)); the flocking of migrating birds and fish, whose patterns exhibit complex, and sometimes chaotic, patterns of motion (Macy and Willer (2002)); and the dynamics of traffic jams among cars and pedestrians, whose flows are irregular and emergent (Nagel and Paczuski (1995)). These emergent properties of complex systems carry important implications for model-building.

At this time, although monthly value of land transactions has risen back to the previous peak level in 1996 and bank credits extended to real estate developers has picked up, we feel that there is no sign of overheating in this sector yet. Latest land prices have increased only by 14 percent on average, while housing prices for low- and medium-income families rose by less than 10 percent over that of last year. Nonetheless, it is important to keep a watchful eye on developments in the real estate sector, by making sure that bank lending to this sector is prudent. And for our part, there is now greater willingness to use the necessary prudential measures to discourage or forestall any undesirable development. Financial institutions are now required to report all real estate loans exceeding 100 million baht. Any real estate lending that is deemed too risky would require immediate additional provisioning. This should help ensure that growth of the real sector is driven by quality growth with least amount of bubbles, and that policy is proactive enough to prevent a reoccurrence of the real estate bubble prior to the 1997 crisis. To improve our ability to monitor this sector, we have developed a housing price index in cooperation with a number of agencies including the Government Housing Bank. This housing price data will be important for assessing the underlying conditions in the housing market, and will allow us to monitor any concentrations of risk before they develop in this sector.
Moreover, as in most countries, even in our country the gap is deeper in the part of the private accumulated capital than in the public capital. However, according to the dynamics, a characteristic of the Macedonian economy is that, unlike most of the economies in the region which registered significantly reduced investments (an average of about 10 p.p. in GDP) in the post-crisis period, until 2017 in our country their share registered an increase. This was underpinned by the stable inflow of foreign direct investment, the country's investments in infrastructural projects, and more important, through relatively solid and sound credit support. The credit support, however, was enabled through the continuous, albeit gradual, growth of the total domestic savings, including savings in the banking system. Looking ahead, there is no doubt for a need of investment growth, meaning an undisputed necessity for encouraging domestic savings in order to reduce the gap between domestic savings and investments. Otherwise, the gap will need to be financed to a significant extent by external sources, although such conditions are not unusual for developing countries, which, in conditions of limited domestic resources, are directed towards the use of external sources for supporting investment and economic growth. It is also important that the lack of domestic savings in one part is compensated by the high inflows of private transfers, which are maintained at a relatively high level in the Macedonian economy, which is close to the level of the domestic savings rate.

Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: The importance of savings for investment growth Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, on the occasion of the World Savings Day - celebration of the Macedonian Banking Association, Skopje, 30 October 2018. * * * Dear Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great honor and pleasure for me to address you at today's event marking the World Savings Day - a day that banks and financial institutions around the world dedicate to promoting saving and raising awareness of the public about the benefits it brings. The saving is undoubtedly important from the aspect of both, individual and overall economic progress and maintenance of the macro financial stability. For each individual, or family, it is the principal and the most important step towards providing financial stability in a long run. By saving, we protect ourselves from unpredictable changes in the personal income dynamics, we more efficiently plan the longterm investments and we build sound foundations for maintaining stable finances throughout the lifetime. Saving is also beneficial for the entire society, as it is one of the key factors which the economy’s investment level depends on, which is a prerequisite for boosting the long-term economic potential. Usually, a significant portion of the savings is channeled into the banking system thus providing stable sources of financing to domestic banks, which is particularly important for the bank-centric financial systems, such as the Macedonian one, where the banks act as major financial intermediaries.