samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
I say this as a central banker not only because one of the ECB’s statutory tasks is to ensure the smooth operation of payment systems. I say it because, ultimately, trust in payments means trust in money as a reliable medium of exchange. For a sound currency, consumers must have 100% confidence that their money can be exchanged safely. 2. The markets challenge Non-banks are not only increasingly entering the retail payments market in the euro area, however; they are also entering the lending business. This brings me to the second challenge for euro area banks: the markets challenge. For some years now, we have been witnessing a trend towards more capital market-based financing in the euro area, driven by both deleveraging among banks and the very low cost of market finance. Looking forward, the Capital Markets Union (CMU) project promises to  1  Deloitte (2015), “Payments disrupted: the emerging challenge for European retail banks”. 2  Ibid. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  further deepen market finance in Europe by, among other things, making it easier for young firms to access risk capital and smaller firms to issue bonds, as well as deepening markets for high quality securitisation. So what will this mean for European banks? In the long run, deeper capital markets may lead to more competition in the provision of financial services and hence weaken banks’ market power.

Retail activity, which was buoyant in May, fell back in June partly due to poor weather conditions. In aggregate, activity was up over the last two months. The construction and civil engineering sector1 recovered in the second quarter of 1997 primarily as a result of seasonal factors. Employment levels held steady in industry, except for the automobile sector, where there was a further contraction, and the building, retail and market services sectors. Wherever possible, companies sought to enhance workforce flexibility via temporary staff and overtime, in order to cope with fluctuating demand and organize themselves for the summer vacation period. __________________ 1  Unadjusted data. BIS Review 70/1997
I will leave these to participants in this Roundtable to deliberate on. I believe that the common purpose of today’s Roundtable is to discuss on ways to speed up the migration to electronic payment with special focus on electronic money. This is indeed a good platform for all key stakeholders to provide their thoughts and highlight areas that require further improvement. In conclusion, therefore, I would like to thank OMFIF and the Lafferty Group for their involvement in this Roundtable event. I wish you all success in your deliberations and look forward to your views and suggestions in achieving our common goal. Lastly, I on behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia also wish to register our appreciation to all of you for taking time from your busy schedule to attend this event. 4  BIS Review 69/2010

“Financial globalisation and challenges for prudential policies and macroeconomic management.” Speech by Deputy Head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the BIS, at a meeting of the Institut International d’Études Bancaires, Reykjavik, Iceland, 18 May 2007 (http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp070525.htm). 5  A report written by William Buiter and Anne Siebert in the spring of 2008 for one of the banks that failed later in the year gives sound analysis of the problems facing the Icelandic banking system at the time. See Buiter, William H., and Anne Sibert, (2008). “The Icelandic banking crisis and what to do about it: The lender of last resort theory of optimal currency areas”, CEPR Policy Insight, No. 26, October 2008. (http://www.cepr.org/pubs/policyinsights/PolicyInsight26.pdf). BIS Review 9/2010  5  The build-up So how were these mammoths created? Following a process of consolidation and privatisation, which was largely completed in 2003, the Icelandic banks grew very rapidly. With headquarters in Reykjavik, they expanded their activities abroad, for the most part by acquiring financial institutions in other countries, opening up bank branches, and stepping up their foreign operations. This phenomenal growth was made easier by Iceland’s membership in the European Economic Area (EEA). The EEA Agreement provided a legal and regulatory framework based on EU Directives. This meant that the operating licences held by Icelandic financial institutions were not limited to Iceland but included all the countries in the EEA. The European “Passport” gave the banks the scope to operate throughout the EEA, including permission to operate branches in other EEA countries.
would the economic downturn take on the shape of a U? Or would the USA simply experience a recession in the backwater of the burst IT bubble? At the Riksbank we were discussing a “banana-shaped” development from an early state, which could best be interpreted as a very long drawn out U. And even in the USA, the assessments had already changed from V to U even before the catastrophe and there was talk here and there of the possibility of a recession. The positive figures expected with regard to consumption and investment had largely failed to materialise, despite interest rate reductions and tax relief, while unemployment had increased and consumers found it more difficult to pay their debts. Nor had the stock exchange shown the upturn expected by many. Of course, the tragic events in the USA will have a severe dampening effect on the business cycle, at least in the short term. A number of central banks, headed by the Federal Reserve, have therefore lowered their steering interest rates. The Executive Board of the Riksbank also decided last week to lower the repo rate by 0.5 percentage points from 4.25 per cent to 3.75 per cent. Subdued inflationary pressure as a result of lower resource utilisation both in Sweden and abroad was judged to overshadow any price increases caused by the continuing weak krona. We stated in the press release that “the uncertainty occasioned by last week’s act of terrorism creates the risk of a further dampening of global demand.

We have chosen to use fundamental analysis as a basis but to also weigh in as far as possible the effects of other factors. This means that our assessments assume that the krona will appreciate in the long term, which it has so far stubbornly refused to do. Nevertheless, the consequences of these “misforecasts” have not been so great. During the period we have had a floating exchange rate, fluctuations in the krona rate have not had as large an impact on inflation as before, which we have taken into account when making inflation assessment. This means that monetary policy has not been affected to any great extent by the fact that the krona has not developed as expected. What does the future hold in store? The prospects for the US economy played a decisive role in the assessment of Swedish growth and inflation even before the terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. One important factor was whether there was actually grounds for the optimistic expectations of future growth that characterised the economy and that had previously pushed up investment and share prices. Was the economic downturn in the shape of a V, i.e. would it soon be over? There can scarcely be any doubt that developments in information technology had created and are still creating growth potential that is far from exhausted. Or would it take longer time to grow into the overinvestment that occurred when the “new economy” appeared to be a fact, i.e.
To address the pressing issues facing home and host country relations in this context, the Vienna Initiative was relaunched as “The Vienna Initiative II”. It focuses on fostering homehost authority coordination to support stable cross-border banking, and help protect the economy from disorderly deleveraging. As a member of the Steering Committee of the Vienna Initiative II, I have underlined the need for a more effective home-host coordination, promoting Albania’s position as a host country. Given the geographical proximity and high exposure to recent developments in the EU  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  financial markets, I am confident that our countries would significantly benefit from developing a regional perspective on risks and opportunities arising from such developments, and major supervisory reforms at the regional level. In this context, Albania’s membership in the Steering Committee of the Vienna Initiative, and the Working Group on Banking Union and Emerging Europe is a solid foundation to build upon and synthesize the common concerns of our countries vis-á-vis EU authorities. Allow me now to summarize the insofar position of the Bank of Albania, articulated in the framework of the Vienna Initiative II, and propose a number of discussion topics, which I am confident will lead to a fruitful exchange of views today. The Bank of Albania has called for effective mechanisms to restore healthy lending to the economies of non-EU countries, where systemic subsidiaries of EU banking groups operate. In this context, EU authorities and EU banking groups should provide their active contribution.

The last but not the least is to increase the possibility of commercial banks to be more present into the market, making it more liquid and solvent. How we think this process will be realized: 1. The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Albania must review the regulatory basis that covers the part of treasury bills issuance and more concretely the Agreement concluded by them “On issuance of treasury bills in the form of registration”. 2. The Bank of Albania must review the Regulation “On the secondary and retail treasury bill market in Albania”. 3. The Commission of Securities must review that part of the regulatory basis which is related to the licensing process of the securities register. 4. The commercial banks should proceed with the Commission of Securities, with the purpose to ensure the licence for maintaining the register of individual’s securities. 5. The Bank of Albania will prepare, after the completion of this process, the strategic plan of the movement of individuals from its windows to the windows of commercial banks. The time  BIS Review 24/2005  1  available to the Bank of Albania will also be used for testing the stance of “individual” investors in advance.
15/11/2019  Opening remarks 11th edition of the European SSM Roundtable/International Bankers Forum Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Good Morning and welcome to Banco de España for this 11th edition of the European SSM Roundtable, organised by the International Bankers Forum (IBF). The topic for today’s roundtable is the management of non-financial risk. This is an issue which is always in the spotlight and, at the same time, is quite hard to tackle. The concept of risk is continuously used in banking regulation. A quick search in the CRR1 or CRR2 text will reveal that it is mentioned nearly 1,500 times in each. Banks are certainly familiar with the regulatory requests to understand, measure, hedge, control, assess, address or mitigate risk. I believe it is fair to say that any firm that has survived the crisis and its long aftermath, without public support, has been largely successful in fulfilling these risk-related tasks. Of course, supervisors are also permanently concerned about risk; to some extent, it is what we are paid for. Still, I believe both banks and supervisors tend to feel rather comfortable when we assess financial risk. Don’t misinterpret me. We are perfectly aware of the consequences that a mismanagement of financial risk can entail, but we tend to look at financial risk in a more natural and intuitive way. Things get a lot stickier when we look at non-financial risk. What is the nature of non-financial risk? And what makes it different from more traditional financial risk?

Parliament has established the Payment System Regulator, a new economic regulator, to improve competition and innovation in the payment systems, through which payments using bank accounts are made hitherto dominated by the large banks,  To support greater competition and innovation, the Bank of England has widened access to RTGS, the high value settlement system, so that large non-bank payment service providers can access it directly rather than having to go through the banks with whom they are in competition. 10  At the same time, the introduction of electronic technology, Near Field Communication, has allowed the development of contactless payments and reduced the ‘hassle’ of making small value card payments and enabled smart phones to be used as payment devices. And of course, more commerce is migrating to the internet where physical cash simply cannot be used. Internet sales now account for over 15% of retail sales. We are, as a result, seeing important changes in the way we use money as a means of payment. New players, from the largest technology companies to challenger banks and internet startups are coming into the various elements of the transaction chain. And there seem to be changes in the way we use cash.
This translates to at least 6,000–7,000 new jobs for the financial industry annually. We should come together to invest in adding to the talent pool here, and avoid unproductive poaching from within the industry. MAS and IBF will continue to work with the industry to see how we can extend more competency-based skills training to new entrants joining the industry. More than any other industry perhaps, the financial industry depends on talent. Identifying, nurturing, and developing talent must therefore be the number one priority of every financial industry CEO. IBF has been organising these Annual Conferences – to bring together industry leaders to deliberate on how we can do better in building talent for the industry. Today's Conference will focus on leadership development – how we can build a robust pipeline of leaders in our organisations and develop our talent base. I wish you a fruitful session ahead and I look forward to your continuous partnership in our common journey of learning and growing in the year ahead. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Another example where we’ve acted as a catalyst is our Small Business Credit Survey. The findings revealed the challenge small businesses face accessing loans for expansion. The cost of originating smaller loans is often so great that banks won’t take them on. But as a result of the gap being identified, one bank is now partnering with the Community Reinvestment Fund to refer small businesses to the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund.2 Small businesses are vital to job creation and play an important role in our communities, so it’s essential we support them to get access to the credit they need to grow. I don’t want to talk about access to credit without saying a few words about the Community Reinvestment Act, or CRA. Our work supervising CRA compliance supports efforts to make sure credit gets to where it’s needed most. A large amount of work has been going on at the Board of Governors to review the modernization of the CRA, and we held two roundtables here in New York City to better understand what’s working and where we need change. What’s important is that efforts to modernize CRA maintain and strengthen the emphasis on 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  ensuring all communities in our nation have access to affordable credit. These principles—connect, convene, and catalyze—will continue to guide us forward as we grow our outreach programs and drive progress.
Successful management of the foreign exchange reserves of Albania, where I would emphasise that the adoption of contemporary methods on evaluating their adequacy and administration, has driven to the increase of this reserves – from EUR 2.2 million in 2014 to almost EUR 5 million in 2021, coupled with the maintaining of its soundness in terms of liquidity and safety. In addition, I would like to note here that the pleasant level of our foreign exchange reserve is one of the main indicators supporting the positive risk assessment of the country in international financial markets. The European integration process, where the direct responsibility fields of the Bank of Albania are evidenced as the closest contact points with the European Union legislations, or Acquis Communutaire. In terms on national currency management, the Bank of Albania has ensured the normal supply of market with cash, even in the presence of considerable operational challenges triggered by the pandemic. Also, we have refreshed the entire series of existing banknotes. This process was finalised at the beginning of this year with the introduction of the last two denominations. In parallel, with the refreshment, in response to both the requirements posed by the time and the economic and financial developments, the series is completed with a new banknote, with a nominal value 10,000 Lekë. The entire series of the banknotes has a contemporary design and meets the highest security standards. Financial education, a crucial investment for the awareness of the management of personal finances and enhancing the welfare of the society.

In this context, I think that the Bank of Albania should continue to maintain the leading role, in its field of responsibility and competence, related to this process, by providing the good example and its experience to the other authorities. Last, allow me to point out that the Bank of Albania has been and will continue to be an open and transparent institution. The strengthening and observance of this principle will become the fifth priority of my tasks. The Bank of Albania is able and should expand further the range of the economic information it publishes, and increase its presence in the tables where economic issues are discussed. Honourable chairman, Honourable members of commission, By presenting and motivating my request for the term renovation as the Governor of the Bank of Albania, allow me to re-affirm, that my 30-year-work in both the public and private sector of financial industry, the experience in executive positions, and results of my work, are a guarantee in fulfilling this duty. The reliance of this distinguished committee, will serve as a further motivation in giving my contribution to developing the Bank of Albania. Thank you! 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
Consider first a portfolio of three commodities using monthly data from 1890. 18  Specifically, we generate 100,000 random series of data from the underlying process. We use these series to forecast conditional volatilities and then compare these with actual conditional volatilities. BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Determining the risk of this portfolio in a Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework involves estimates of asset volatilities and correlations. We consider three models to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of returns which vary in complexity from the simple (a sample average covariance matrix (MA)) to the relatively simple (an exponentially-weighted covariance matrix (EWMA)) to the complex (a multivariate GARCH(1,1)). Using historical samples of different sizes, these models are used to generate forecasts of VaR over the period 1970–2010. These VaR estimates can be compared with actual losses over this period. We report the ratio of actual to expected VaR violations – the “violation ratio” – at the 95% confidence interval. The closer this ratio is to unity, the better the performance of the model. The violation ratios are shown in Chart 18. The simpler moving-average models materially outperform the complex GARCH model when samples are around 20–30 years. The performance of the complex models improves as the sample size is increased. But even with a sample size of three-quarters of a century, the simple models perform at least as well as the complex one. Another dimension to complexity is the number of assets in a portfolio. So consider a different portfolio of 200 equities since 1973.

The UK, Sweden and Denmark have so far chosen to remain outside EMU. Sweden and the UK have inflation targets and floating exchange rates, while Denmark’s monetary policy is oriented towards a fixed exchange rate against the euro. These three countries are important to Norway, both because of their geographical proximity and because they account for close to 40 per cent of Norway’s foreign trade. If these countries join EMU some time in the future, it is possible that the use of the euro by Norwegian households and businesses will increase somewhat. However, extensive use of the euro as a means of settling domestic payment transactions is unlikely. In those cases where we have seen partial or total currency substitution, such as in some countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America, it has usually been a result of strongly deteriorating confidence in the local currency. Confidence can deteriorate when inflation is high and variable or when government finances are on the verge of collapse. By influencing the volume of NOK in circulation, Norges Bank will always be able to ensure that the internal value of the Norwegian krone is maintained in line with the guidelines for monetary policy. If the introduction of the euro increases efficiency and economic growth in the participating countries, this will have positive spillover effects on the Norwegian economy. Stable economic developments in the euro area are also very important for the Norwegian economy. Thank you for your attention. 8  BIS Review 90/2001