samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Niklaus Blattner: Review of the Swiss economy: end-of-year media news conference Introductory remarks by Prof Dr Niklaus Blattner, Member of the Directorate of the Swiss National Bank, at the End-of-year Media News Conference, Zurich, 7 December 2001 *  *  *  11 September 2001: a test for the global financial system For a number of years now so-called systemic risks have received increasing attention from the central banks and from banking and financial market supervisory authorities. In extreme circumstances, systemic risks may ultimately lead to a breakdown of the financial system. They have their origin either in a transmission of liquidity and solvency problems between banks and other financial service providers or in the fact that numerous market participants are simultaneously affected by the same non-diversifiable risks. Examples of such risks are sudden, widespread and massive losses in the value of financial assets (stock market crash), serious malfunctioning of major financial market infrastructures, large-scale natural disasters or terror attacks which obstruct markets and market participants in economic or technical and physical respects. The consequence may be a substantial disruption of economic activity. The damage caused to the affected economies is liable to be correspondingly large. The terror attacks of 11 September 2001 hit the central nerve of the global financial system - New York, the major trading centre for the world's leading currency and the preferred location of the international banking and financial services industry.

The events of 11 September have strengthened all the parties' awareness of the extent of international integration in a crisis situation. While the benefits of international cooperation have so far been undisputed, at least theoretically, empirical evidence has now been provided. Cooperation among the authorities in the various countries on the level of the Bank for International Settlements, the relevant committees of central bank governors of the Group of Ten and the International Monetary Fund is to be intensified. 8. A current example of such efforts can be found in the payment systems sector. Any strains on the financial system can spread rapidly as a result of the international integration of participants as well as of payment and settlement systems. Increased attention must be paid to devising and linking systems such as Switzerland's SIC (Swiss Interbank Clearing) and the planned CLS (Continuous Linked Settlement) among others. 9. Further problems which must be dealt with in particular by the private financial industry concern the inadequate geographic diversification of production locations and backup facilities, which have proved less than satisfactory in some cases. 2  BIS Review 101/2001
However, growth in New York State has slowed, and Puerto Rico’s economy is not faring well at all; the activity index produced by the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico shows that the Island’s economy has yet to show any signs of bottoming out. The job situation has varied somewhat across our region. Improvement has generally been broad-based, with New York City and Long Island doing particularly well, though Puerto Rico continues to weaken. Both Connecticut and New Jersey have recently been growing roughly in line with the nation thus far in 2013. Unemployment rates across the region are roughly matching the national rate, with the exception of the relatively high rate that has characterized Puerto Rico’s labor market for some time. Housing continues to be a focus of our regional monitoring efforts and home prices in our region appear to have bottomed. Our economists will elaborate on these points this morning. Are recent college graduates finding good jobs? The special topic of today’s press briefing is a look at how well recent college graduates are faring in the job market, both nationally and here in our region. A college education represents an important investment in one’s human capital, meaning the knowledge and skills people build. Historically, it’s been pretty clear that those who’ve invested in a college education have tended to earn a sizeable economic return. And the benefits of collegeeducated citizens go well beyond the individual.

Although the unemployment rate has declined by 2.5 percentage points from its peak of 10 percent in October of 2009, much of this decline is due to the fact that the labor force participation rate has fallen by 1.5 percentage points over this period. Recall that discouraged workers who do not actively look for work are regarded as not participating in the labor force and so are not counted as unemployed even though they are without jobs. Using an alternative measure, the employment to population ratio, which is not influenced by changes in the number of discouraged workers, there has been limited improvement in labor market conditions. Job loss rates have fallen, but hiring rates remain depressed at low levels. Taken together, the labor market still cannot be regarded as healthy. Numerous indicators, including the behavior of labor compensation and household assessments of labor market conditions, are all consistent with the view that there remains a great deal of slack in the economy. That being said, I see persuasive evidence of improved underlying fundamentals for much of the private sector of the U.S. economy. Key measures of household leverage have declined and are now at the lowest levels they have been in well over a decade. Household net worth, expressed as a percent of disposable income, has increased back to its average of the previous decade, reflecting rising equity and home prices and declining liabilities. Banks are beginning to ease credit standards somewhat after a prolonged period of tightness.
Where possible, therefore, the use of cheques should be discouraged. 3.4 Promote electronic retail payments and telecommunication systems: The first step towards promoting electronic retail payment systems is to provide low cost current and savings accounts that can be accessed with a cash dispenser card. The use of non-cash payment instruments, in particular, mobile and telephone banking can be promoted together with the use of high security standards, which would ensure reliability of the payment instrument. Although the payment options for e-commerce or e-money are catching up, there still remains a significant demand for increased efficiency in the delivery channels of these instruments. The ATM machines have now extended their scope to provide a wide range of services. Singapore has introduced an e-Giro system, which enables participating banks to effect transactions using browser-based PCs at their offices, while in other countries, rural and small businesses access through the use of telecommunication facilities is fast developing. 3.5 Introduce Common Payment Switches (CPSs): The CPSs can be used for managing the clearing of retail fund transfers initially among banks, but they are common platforms for local retail transactions, online real time fund transfers and for miscellaneous retail payments across banks. Through CPSs, both operators and customers will enjoy benefits of service outside banking hours, reduction of administration work and paper  BIS Review 61/2008  3  handling, on-line availability of information, ability to integrate future services, reduction of settlement risks on retail transactions, etc.

Although the gradual move out of cash has made paper-based instruments such as money orders, postal orders, bank drafts etc., popular for several decades, their market sizes have continued to decline, largely due to inherited inefficiencies and cumbersome processes in effecting and settling payments. Some of these retail payment instruments and systems have now been replaced by electronic payment instruments and cards, and the tendency is to move towards electronic credit and debit transfers. According to the statistical reports of the Bank for International Settlements, some interesting movements in the use of retail payments in selected countries can be seen. In volume terms, France, Germany, Italy and the UK have reduced cheque use from a range of 3-38 percent of total non-cash payments, respectively, in 2000 to a range of 1-26 percent in 2006, while there are no cheques at all in the Netherlands. In Brazil too, cheques have decreased from 57 to 25 percent or less in the same period. Credit and debit transfers and cards, on the other hand, have risen significantly in these countries. This picture is different to that of India, where cheque use has reduced at a slow pace from 84% in 2004 to 73% in 2007 and in Sri Lanka from 75% to 65% in the same period, indicating the dominance of cheques. I believe the situation is the same for other countries in the SAARC region.
Over the past decade, UK average real earnings th  have fallen for the first time since the middle of the 19 century. Trust in the financial system has plummeted. 3  Over the past decade, the UK and its key G20 partners have been fixing these fault lines and creating a system that is safer, simpler and fairer. The system is safer because banks are now much more resilient, with capital requirements for the largest global banks that are ten times higher than before the crisis and a new leverage ratio that guards against risks that may seem low but prove not. The financial system is simpler. As banks have become less complex and more focused, they are lending more to households and businesses and less to each other. A series of measures are eliminating toxic and fragile forms of shadow banking while reinforcing the best of resilient market-based finance. And more durable market infrastructure is simplifying the previously complex – and dangerous – web of exposures in derivative markets. The financial system is fairer because of reforms that are ending the era of “too big to fail” banks and addressing the root causes of a torrent of misconduct. The benefits of these painstaking efforts are beginning to be realised. The global financial system is moving from fragility to resilience. The too-big-to-fail public subsidy enjoyed by private systemic banks has fallen by 90% in the UK. Credit is now growing in all major economies.

As the Vice Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism recently stressed, for example, “both banks and supervisors must prepare for any potential scenario”. 12  12  ‘Introductory statement to the press conference on the ECB Annual Report on supervisory activities 2016’, remarks by Sabine Lautenschläger, Vice Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, 27 March 2017. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  Under one scenario, negotiations could result in a new statutory and regulatory regime with a large number of firms – currently either physically based in the UK or providing services within the single market via passporting arrangements – coming directly under PRA authorisation and supervision. In that case, we would need to form our own judgments, rather than relying exclusively on those of others. As our continental colleagues have observed in the analogous case of UK firms operating in Europe, these judgements could affect whether the firm operates as a branch or a subsidiary, as well as the range of services it can supply. Consistent with our current approach, and the PRA’s stance towards non-EEA branches, any judgements would reflect:   the cooperative and information sharing arrangements in place;    our confidence in the standards to which others are adhering; and    any assurances we have on arrangements to address circumstances when things go wrong.
3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  3  But such big transitions take time. Workers generally cannot move seamlessly to new jobs in which they can be productive. The benefits of the First Industrial Revolution, which began in the latter half of the 18  th  th 7  century, were not felt fully in productivity and wages until the second half of the 19 . th  Indeed, at the start of the 19 century in the UK, despite a sharp pickup in productivity, wage growth stalled and the labour share fell – a period dubbed “Engels’ pause”. A Framework for Examining Technical Change and the Labour Market 8  To understand such dynamics it helps to have a common conceptual framework. The impact of technological change on employment and wages can be depicted as the sum of three major effects: destruction, productivity and creation. The destruction effect is the focus of most alarmist accounts: the replacement of labour by technology, with an associated reduction in labour demand, wages and employment. Less commonly acknowledged are the positive effects on aggregate demand of new technologies, what can be termed the productivity effect. This effect is analogous to the classic Say’s law in which supply creates its own demand. Technology makes those in work more productive, in time boosting wages and increasing the returns to those who own capital. This greater income boosts aggregate demand and leans against the destruction effect.

But as students of economic history know (and policymakers learn at their cost), without the right institutions, structural changes – whether large changes to trading relationships or technological revolutions – can be painful. Whitaker recognised that “Readiness to adapt to changing conditions is a sine qua non for economic 1  success” and that adaptability required a series of changes to Ireland’s institutions. Major reforms to education were essential to match the skills of the Irish workforce to the potential jobs that increased inward investment could bring. A 1964 report on Manpower Policy, which Whitaker oversaw as chair, advocated 2  greater investment in the STEM subjects, readying a generation for the IT revolution. More broadly, Ireland repeatedly increased standards of education, beginning with the introduction of universal secondary schooling in 1967, resulting in levels of educational attainment today that exceed the OECD average. 3  Whitaker also advocated reforms of labour market institutions – to tackle restrictive work practices and ensure pay was more closely linked to productivity. 4  Emphasis was also placed on a competitive environment for business to help attract foreign capital, in part through the overhaul of the corporate tax regime. And improvements were made to infrastructure, such as power supplies and transport services. 1  Taken from “Economic Development”, a report on the Irish Economy overseen by Whitaker and published in 1958. Whitaker played a central role in improving education in the public sector.
The current economic developments and outlook point to new a global cycle and the need of gradual normalization of monetary policy. Gradual approach is required to avoid the so-called “taper tantrum” episodes that financial markets have already experienced during the US tapering. A stronger and clear monetary policy communication should be in favor of preparing market agents for the future monetary policy changes and smother reaction when they take place. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  The monetary policy normalization in advanced economies could produce different impacts for emerging economies and their monetary policy. Any capital outflows would be highly dependent on the size and structure of the financial liabilities, especially regarding the existence of interest rate sensitive capital flows, that is not always the case in emerging economies with lower level of financial integration, where more usual are the direct investment, trade credits and banking sector capital flows. On the other hand, the more restrictive financial conditions in advanced economies in a medium run could eventually lead to lower external demand in the emerging economies. The impacts on the fiscal policy are more serious, implying stricter conditions for external budget financing, signaling the need to start or continue with fiscal consolidation, in the emerging economies where it has already started. Having in mind country specific reasons, monetary policy normalization in emerging economies may come with different lag.

Lim Hng Kiang: Opening of the Norges Bank Investment Management’s Singapore office Remarks by Mr Lim Hng Kiang, Minister for Trade and Industry and Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in celebration of the opening of the Norges Bank Investment Management’s Singapore office, Singapore, 1 July 2010. *  *  *  Minister Sigbjørn Johnsen, Governor Svein Gjedrem, Ambassador Janne Julsrud, Ladies and Gentlemen, Good evening. 1. It is a pleasure to be here to celebrate the opening of Norges Bank Investment Management’s (“NBIM”) Singapore office. 2. The opening of NBIM’s investment office here is an affirmation of the growing importance of Asian markets in the portfolios of many long-term investors like NBIM. It also reflects Singapore’s role as a key location to manage Asian investments. Your presence here will not only bring you closer to the markets you invest in but also help form stronger ties with partners in this part of the world. 3. Among the Sovereign Wealth Funds or SWFs around the world, NBIM is widely regarded as a role model for transparency and governance. Being one of the earliest SWFs, NBIM has built up a strong reputation of excellence and leadership in investment and risk management, governance and talent management practices. NBIM has stayed focused on its objective to preserve and grow wealth for the future generations of Norwegians by diversifying its investments internationally and developing a talented investment team. Your track record has been most enviable. 4.
We want debt investors to be able to price risk effectively by being clear about where they rank in the creditor hierarchy and to give them confidence that we can stick to the hierarchy in applying losses and that we will not be picking winners and losers within a class. Counting as MREL senior debt issued out of operating companies without subordination looks like a recipe for undermining that confidence. (b) Bail-in execution We also want to be clear as a resolution authority how we will conduct the resolution in a way that preserves value and distributes it fairly, ensuring no creditor worse off protections are met. To that end, we have thought hard about the valuation capabilities we need firms to have so that we can value losses and recapitalisation needs in an effective and timely way. We have just consulted on a set of principle level 12  requirements and expect to finalise policy in this space in the next few months. We believe that the bail-in valuation for a large cross-border firm is not something that can be fixed over a weekend. Valuation on that timetable will inevitably tend to overshoot on the estimation of losses, not least because a significant driver of the valuation will be the reorganisation that follows the bail-in and the restructuring costs and disposal valuations associated with that.

9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9
In the long run, it is monetary policy that determine the rate of inflation in the economy and “rational” long-term inflation expectations should therefore still be in line with the central bank's target for price stability. If the public makes this presumption, the negative consequences of taking longer to attain the inflation target will be much less serious. 11 [20]  Concluding comments Let me round off. My purpose here has been to do two things. Firstly, I have tried to put the recent debate on monetary policy into perspective. I have discussed the criticism raised against our policy in general and against the negative repo rate in particular. As I hope I have made clear, there are some gaps in the criticism. I noted earlier that the main argument is often merely that monetary policy for various reasons is wrong. What I feel is often missing is a discussion of why the advantages of the inflation target should no longer apply and what the consequences would be if the Riksbank abandoned it. It is no new phenomenon that the debate fails to answer important questions. In the mid-1990s, when the inflation-targeting regime was relatively new, Lars E.O. Svensson, who was then scientific adviser to the Riksbank and later a member of the Executive Board, argued that the debate often lacked structure.

The criticism is rarely clear with regard to which of the statements it is based on, but my interpretation is that most of it is based on the first claim – that it is not so important to maintain confidence in the inflation target. Unfortunately, this rarely develops into any more detailed reasoning. Typically, the criticism tends to stop at monetary policy having been inappropriate, while reflections on the merits of a credible inflation target – and in particular on why the advantages of the current target should no longer apply – are almost always lacking. Essentially the criticism concerns whether or not to have an inflation target When thinking about it, this criticism is in fact quite remarkable. What it actually says is that even if confidence in the inflation target is beginning to fail quite clearly, the Riksbank should not do what it can to maintain it. In this sense, one can argue that the discussion is essentially about whether or not to have an inflation target, and perhaps even about whether or not to pursue an inflation-targeting policy at all, although it is rarely expressed in this way. I can only think of one earlier parallel. It was as long ago as the second half of 1994, after the Riksbank had decided to introduce an inflation target, but before it came into force in 1995.