samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Asian bond markets are growing healthily and Asian bonds are an essential component of any balanced and diversified portfolio. Over the last five years, Asian bond 4  issuances grew at a compound annual growth rate of more than 10%. Asian bonds now make up over 30% of the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Government Bond Index. Since last year, 2 Asian countries received rating upgrades, notably Indonesia to investment grade1. 5 . Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing region in the world. The IMF places Emerging Asia at the top of the global growth league table, with average growth rates of 6.3% p.a. from now to 20222, outstripping expected outturns in the developed economies3 as well as all other developing regions. China and India, the two largest Asian markets, are expected to grow by 6% p.a. and 7–8% p.a. respectively, while activity in the ASEAN-5 economies is expected to expand at around 5% p.a.4. 6. The rosy outlook translates to two significant implications for capital markets:  a. On the demand side, relatively favourable demographics, the emergence of a rising middle class and rapid urbanisation will stimulate more savings and investments; b. On the supply side, there is much scope in Asia to improve infrastructure, technology and innovation, the success of which will go a long way toward raising productivity and incomes even further. To finance these important structural needs, Asia’s ability to raise long-term capital for sustainable growth would make cross-border capital market activities even more important.

Regulatory and supervisory authorities should strengthen prudential and other financial market regulations in order to deepen financial markets and improve investment climate, whereas central banks should focus more on greater currency flexibility and price stability. In conclusion, as a central banker, I would like to highlight three key messages from the thoughts I have shared with you. First, to achieve price stability, central banks need to ensure efficiency of financial infrastructure and maintain smooth operation of financial services. An efficient and effective payment and settlement system is at the core of financial infrastructure. Second, removing market imperfections is essential for the smooth operation of financial systems. Establishment of credit bureaus to improve exchange of information on credit history of economic agents and reducing fiscal dominance are important steps to ensure sound-lending activities. In this context, the role of micro finance in promoting the access of the low-income segment of the society to credit should be supported and encouraged. Third, the overall level of external financing and its composition is important for domestic access to finance. The benefits of capital inflows to economic growth would be higher with a developed financial sector. Central banks could best support this process through their contribution to macroeconomic stability. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 21/2008
Allianz strives to support its businesses with sufficient capacity to underwrite risks. The establishment of the Singapore branch of Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty in 2011 reflects a deep commitment to build underwriting capacity in the Asia-Pacific. In the same way, to be the premier specialist insurance market in Asia, Singapore must deepen its underwriting expertise in reinsurance and specialty insurance with an Asian focus. Two, Profitability. Allianz seeks to be profitable through its operating businesses alone, so as to be as independent as possible from volatility in the financial and capital markets. The global insurance industry continues to face pressure from weak economic growth, soft pricing and persistently low investment yields. Insurers can no longer rely on investment income or rate increases alone, to compensate for weak underwriting. Likewise, even as Singapore’s insurance industry diversifies the span of its activities to include capital markets, it must continue to stay focused on core competencies in underwriting insurance risks. High underwriting standards are critical for sustainable growth. Three, Internal Capabilities. Allianz aims to reduce complexity by focusing on core activities, reducing structural inefficiencies, and streamlining processes. Likewise, in seeking to strengthen its value proposition as a specialist insurance market with a deep appreciation of Asia’s risks, Singapore’s insurance industry must invest in Asia-focussed data, research and analytics. Singapore has achieved a good head-start in a number of areas, such as SMU’s Centre for Silver Security for longevity risk and NTU’s Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management for catastrophic risks. We must continue to build on these capabilities.

Finally, +One, Synergistic Growth. Allianz seeks to inculcate systematic cooperation between business lines and markets across the Group to deliver profitable growth. Likewise, Singapore’s insurance market must continue to be underpinned by the strong partnership between industry, academia, and government. Research, talent development and market infrastructure are areas where active collaboration is a critical success factor. Conclusion The commitment of key industry players such as Allianz has been instrumental in establishing Singapore as a leading insurance market. On this happy occasion, we are also pleased to announce that Singapore has been chosen to host the Geneva Association General Assembly in 2015. The General Assembly will bring together global CEOs and other stakeholders in the insurance industry over a two-day conference to discuss industry trends. This is only the second time it will be hosted in Asia, after Japan in 2009. In closing, I thank Allianz for growing with Singapore. I am confident your strong presence in Singapore will serve you well as you continue to extend your Asian footprint. Once again, congratulations, and a very good evening to all of you. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
And the euro will also encourage “cross fertilisation” of best practices through stronger co ordination of member states policies in areas such as labour markets, education and training, job creation incentives, effective welfare safety nets, etc. In this sense, the euro – which is in itself a major structural reform- must, and will certainly, bring about other structural reforms. í  The fourth condition is that all economic leaders in Europe must be clearsighted with regard to the crucial matter of competitiveness. Pre-euro economic policy meant in particular monitoring trade balances, the balance of payments and the foreign exchange and interest rate markets. Economic leaders thus received constant and to a large extent real time feedback on key indicators affecting national economic performance and could react accordingly. These indicators remain on the euro-wide level: this is why the mutual surveillance of fiscal and economic policies provided for by the Treaty is so important. But they have disappeared at the national level with the advent of the euro, whilst the. rules of a market economy continue to apply to each economy participating in the euro zone. Jobs are created by consumers when they choose the goods and services they feel are the best value for money. Businessmen allocate these jobs to different possible locations in different countries according to the relative competitive advantages of these locations. Therefore the leaders of each national economy must monitor competitiveness through indicators such as unit production costs, tax and regulatory frameworks and so forth. This is even more important than before.

So, without further ado, may I declare the seminar open and wish you all a successful deliberation over the next two days. Thank you again for the invitation, and thank you for your attention. 2  BIS Review 18/2008
Untenable in the long run Although I cannot see any problems right now, I do not believe that nominal house prices can continue to increase by an average of well above 7 per cent a year as they have done since the start of the 2000s. This is not sustainable in the long term. And when we now consider when is the best time to begin raising the repo rate, my colleagues and I will be carefully examining variables such as house prices and lending. As I pointed out, for instance, in connection with the monetary policy meeting in February, I believe that during the interest rate increase phase ahead of us it might be appropriate to “lean against the wind” – to emphasise some concern by raising the repo rate slightly sooner than we might otherwise have done. But as I also said then, monetary policy is not the most effective means if one wishes to slow down, for instance, house price developments slightly. I then said I would like to see measures such as Finansinspektionen setting a limit for the loan-to-value ratio for new mortgages. Now they have presented a proposal for this and we will carefully monitor its effects. Leaning against the wind concerns, in my view, avoiding large fluctuations in inflation and the real economy – what provides the best-balanced monetary policy. It is thus about monetary policy, not financial stability.

That is why I am pleased to say that I shall be one of Vikram’s patrons for his Benefit year in 2007. Of course, I could not talk about sport in the Black Country without referring to football. Nowhere had, in my day, more first division teams within a few miles radius than the Black Country. And all the supporters of those teams have had many opportunities over the years to learn how to win and, especially, how to lose. But for the sake of local interest and rivalry, I am looking forward to the day when Wolves and the Albion are restored to the Premiership. Just as football needs a referee, so does the economy. I think of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee – the MPC – as the referee for the economy. The MPC sets interest rates to keep inflation on track to meet the 2% target. We want to allow you to focus on running your businesses – you are the players – while the MPC quietly gets on with its job. You may have seen in the news that yesterday the Bank of England published its latest Inflation Report. That set out our view on the prospects for the economy over the next couple of years. Perhaps I could briefly summarise our latest analysis of the UK economy. For the past year GDP has grown at a rate around its long-term average. Inflation has picked up and has been above the 2% target since May.
The problem: real interest rate too high I have already said that, in the case of a binding zero lower bound for the interest rate, the real interest rate is too high compared to the level appropriate to stabilise inflation around the inflation target and at the same time stabilise the real economy. To be precise, it is the real market rate, that is the market rate met by households and firms minus expected inflation, that is too high. The market rate exceeds the repo rate with a spread that is determined by  3  See Svensson, Lars E.O. (2003), "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(4), 145-166, for literature references and a review of this research. My own contribution to this research can be found on my website, www.princeton.edu/svensson. 2  BIS Review 19/2009  various risk and liquidity premia. This spread is now unusually large due to the financial crisis. This means that the market rates are positive even if the repo rate is zero. With some simplification, the real market rate can be specified as: Real market rate  = Nominal market rate – expected inflation = Repo rate + spread – expected inflation. Even if the repo rate is reduced to zero, the real market rate can be too high, because the spread is large and/or because the expected inflation is low. 4 The real market interest rate can thus be lowered, if the spread can be reduced.

The real economy would also be stimulated directly by the fact that exporting and import-competing sectors would be affected positively by the short-term real depreciation that would arise due to the short-term sluggishness of the price level. As the price level moves up towards the price level target, the real exchange rate will, however, return to its neutral level. Does this method represent a competitive devaluation? The answer is that this is no more of a competitive devaluation than any other form of monetary policy expansion. Note that if the zero lower bound for the interest rate did not exist, the central bank could reduce the real interest rate by reducing the nominal rate. This nominal rate reduction would lead to a depreciation of the currency. The currency depreciation in part (2) achieves the same currency depreciation directly instead of indirectly via a reduction of the nominal interest rate. The method is thus no more of a competitive devaluation than a reduction of the nominal interest rate would be, if such a reduction were possible. It is quite simply a method that entails a certain degree of monetary policy expansion, but by using means other than the policy rate. Every measure that managed to increase expectations of the future price level would in fact also automatically lead to a weakening of the currency. Using the exchange rate as a policy instrument should therefore not be seen as more controversial than using any other method that leads to expectations of a higher future price level.
To blame all on-boarding failures only on an ultra-conservative banking sector is simplistic and counterproductive. Reality is more complex than that and the causes might vary from the risk appetite of the European supervisory landscape that follows a common rule book, to problems of asymmetric information, complex corporate structures or business models. Unless we get down to this level, we can never really pass judgement on the actions of banks regarding who they on-board. Banking is all about risk management and banks with a zero risk appetite will eventually starve and be forced out of the market. Such risk aversion should not come at the expense of the right of all citizens to access basic banking services, as this will fuel financial and social exclusion. Banks should therefore be encouraged to use their judgment and sense of proportion when exercising due diligence, and to consider their responsibility given their pivotal role in the financing of the economy. Although certain AML/CFT vulnerabilities had already been identified at a national level and actions were already underway and although the Authorities pledged their commitment to fully address these issues, the Moneyval report has set targets that we must reach. Financial systems trade in confidence and credibility and unless we address these shortcomings, we will be unable to develop our sector further.

In July, the Central Bank of Malta joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, a collaborative structure that aims to green the financial system and strengthen the efforts of the financial sector in achieving the Paris climate agreement goals. This includes mobilising capital for green and low-carbon investments. Staff members have joined work streams to further research in this area and adopt a number of proposals. Furthermore, the Central Bank of Malta is also represented in the Sustainable Advisory Committee of the Bank for International Settlements and is working in aligning our international portfolio towards holding more green bonds. Page | 6
And there is the challenge of doing so while keeping inflation expectations stable. Nevertheless, I believe that the FOMC will find practicable ways to normalize the Fed’s balance sheet. I believe that practicable ways will be found to avoid inflationary pressures once the velocity of money returns to precrisis levels. I certainly believe that continuing to pare back on the amount of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases is a good start and should be continued at a measured pace that leads to their complete elimination as soon as is practicable. And I believe that as the tide of easy money recedes, Mexico stands ready for the next phase. Unlike other emerging market nations, Mexico seized the opportunity to make some tough decisions and is more resilient and globally competitive as a result. Macroeconomic stability, openness to trade and a unified commitment to confront rather than run from market forces indicate that the Mexican economy is no longer an emerging economy; it has emerged. For this man who spent his childhood in Mexico and feels Mexican, this is one of the most gratifying developments of my lifetime. So that’s why I say, ¡Ándale pues, México! BIS central bankers’ speeches  7

By focussing on a clear set of research priorities, by opening up our datasets, and by creating tighter links between policymakers and researchers, both within the Bank and across the broader research community, we can all help advance the Bank’s mission – promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
However, there are notable differences across the region: the Baltic states (especially Latvia and Estonia) and South-East European countries (especially Croatia and Bulgaria) seem to have approached or even reached the equilibrium by 2004 or 2005, whereas in the case of the Visegrad countries (especially the Czech Republic and Poland) the credit-to-GDP ratio seemed to remain below its estimated equilibrium level at that time. Of course, it might well be that some of the CEE economies have overshot the  1  Kiss, G., Nagy, M., Vonnák, B.: Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Trend, Cycle or Boom?, MNB Working Paper No. 2006/10, November 2006 and Egert, B., Backé, P., Zumer, T.: Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?, ECB Working Paper No. 687, October 2006. BIS Review 137/2007  1  equilibrium only recently, but one has to wait for a while until the relevant data become available before this overshooting can be captured in empirical analyses. The general upshot of these papers is that the rapid credit expansion in CEE economies has mainly been fuelled by demand factors: the buoyant economic growth and the ensuing increases in disposable incomes, rising expectations with regard to future income prospects related to EU accession, remarkable decreases in interest rates, and falling or low and stable inflation rates.

Admittedly, depreciation of CEE currencies has hardly been an issue in the recent past; the currencies in the region have either stable exchange rates (when these are pegged) or tend to appreciate (when the exchange rate regime allows it). However, concerns remain that under such conditions, domestic monetary policy cannot  7  Égert, B., Mihaljek, D.: Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe, BIS Working Paper No. 236, September 2007. 8  Zajączkowski, S., Żochowski, D.: Housing Loans Growth, Foreign Currency Risk and Supervisory Response: the Polish Case, mimeo, November 2007. 9  Brzoza-Brzezina, M., Chmielewski, T., Niedźwiedziska, J.: Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Currency Loans in Central Europe, mimeo, November 2007. BIS Review 137/2007  3  effectively control the growth of credit due to the substitution effect: monetary tightening at home does not lead to a slowdown of total credit growth, but rather to increased foreign currency indebtedness. The analysis in the paper has identified the existence of this effect in the case of three largest CEE economies. Generally, most papers presented and discussed over the last two days have stressed the necessity of prudential supervision of the banking system in the face of a credit boom. Even though financial deepening and capital inflows bring about long-term benefits that can hardly be overstated, in the short to medium run they can lead to imbalances and distortions that pose a threat to the macroeconomic stability of a country.
Therefore, these “deposits” cannot be used as general means of payment and thus will pose no threat to the current deposits-based payment system. Nothing has happened since to change our point of view. On the contrary, we believe that heightened competition will give us a better opportunity to test various technological solutions. This will certainly make it possible to establish new settlement and clearing systems alongside the present infrastructure, but it cannot be assumed that this will be a disadvantage to the user. If such systems - contrary to expectations - should gain ground, then it is likely that the question of licensing with a view to ensuring equal framework conditions will quickly be addressed. Our experience from the financial industry as well as from other industries has shown that intensified competition results in improved and lower-priced products - for the benefit of the customer. There is no reason that it should be any different in the area of payments. One challenge for the authorities will be to formulate a regulatory framework which achieves a balance between the positive sides of coordination and the need for competition and innovation. The challenge for the banks will be to take advantage of the leeway within this framework in order to develop systems which are beneficial to the customer and which ensure a healthy and competitive business arena for Norwegian financial institutions. 13  BIS Review 7/2000  5.

Retail payments  Allow me to turn to a closer examination of the state of the Norwegian payment system. First looking at the retail side of the payment system - where so-called customer payments dominate - there are two factors I would like to bring to the fore: one is the (continuing) sharp increase in electronic services and the other is the stable use of cash. 3 4 5  BIS: Bank for International Settlements. TARGET: Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer (system). NICS: Norwegian Interbank Clearing System. BIS Review 7/2000  4  3.1.1. Transition to electronic payment instruments  If we first look at electronic payment services, we see that the increase in the use of cards is what is most striking. Chart 3: Retail payment services (number of transactions) in 1990 and 1998  Retail payment services (no. of transactions) 1990  1998  444 million transactions  785 million tran sactions  22 %  12 %  25 %  25 % 63 % 53 %  Cards (both c redit a nd de bit card)  Electron ic giro services  Cheques an d other p aper-ba sed payment services  Source: Norges Bank, Annual Report on Payment Systems 1998  The use of payment cards in Norway now exceeds use in most other OECD countries6 and the rate of increase is higher than in many other countries with advanced payment systems - such as Finland and Denmark.