samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Petar Goshev: Importance of the relevant statistical data for the market economy Speech by Mr Petar Goshev, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the Statistics Symposium "Importance of statistical data in the process of creation of domestic policy and accession to the EU", Skopje, 4 October 2006. *  *  *  Importance of the statistics "Nothing is more important for monetary policy than good statistics" says the first President of the European Monetary Institute, Alexandre Lamfalussy, in the foreword of the publication "Statistical Needs of the Monetary Union" (1996). The relevance of this statement is known to all those who work at the central banks and are directly or indirectly involved in the monetary policy outlining and implementation. Even though, nowadays, the central banks operate in far more stable economic and political environment, they are aware that their capability of conducting a good policy, largely depends on the quality of their statistics. The performances of the complex economic models which have been developed recently and the capability of the policy makers to achieve the set objectives and tasks depend, more than ever, on the relevance of the information they get on the economy. Hence, the statistical data represent a key input in the macroeconomic policy making, including the monetary policy. They are an indicator for the performances of the economy and a basis for the adoption of current decisions, and at the same time they underlie the projections for the future developments.

Therefore their quality, impartiality and timeliness are crucial for successful functioning of the economy of any country. In addition, the statistical indicators are also a basis for the comparative analyses with the economies of other countries and are essentially relevant for positioning of the economy, worldwide. Statistics in the National Bank The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia is largely focused on the design and the development of the statistics. Two years ago, in the process of reorganization of the National Bank operations, a separate Statistics Department was formed that unites all macroeconomic statistics, previously processed in several departments. Its establishment constitutes a centralized organization of the macroeconomic statistics maintained by the National Bank. It ensures larger coordination, methodological conformity and consistence between each type of statistics. The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, together with the State Statistical Office are main institutions that prepare statistical data in the country.
Co-ordination is stressed in the Treaty itself, which requests that Member States treat national economic policies “as a matter of common concern” and subject them to a multilateral procedure. Naturally, this economic co-ordination can in no way undermine the independence of the ECB and the Eurosystem. Even more importantly, the euro area possesses institutional mechanisms which are conducive to an appropriate policy mix: the Stability and Growth Pact includes, on the part of the Member States, strict fiscal requirements. I will cite three economic justifications for the Treaty provisions that gave rise to the Stability and Growth Pact: –  First, by keeping a rein on the fiscal policies of the EMU Member States, the Pact ensures a satisfactory policy mix within the euro area. This is essential for monetary policy, in order to counterbalance the fact that Europe does not have a federal government and hence no significant “federal” budget. Mutual surveillance and close co-ordination of fiscal policies are the responsibility of the "Eurogroup" and of the Ecofin Council. Keeping the deficit below 3 % of GDP, and achieving budgets that are "close to balance or in surplus" in the medium term, ensure a balanced policy mix throughout the euro area. –  Second, the Pact helps to prevent well-managed economies from having to bear an unjustified risk premium on interest rates, resulting from the poor management of other EMU economies, by setting up a penalty system for excessive deficits.

The euro deepens and completes the single market  a)  The euro makes the completion of the single market possible. It enables the productive sector and companies to achieve significant economies of scale, and all European savings to be allocated to the most efficient investments. It also enhances the transparency of the market and boosts competition and innovation to the benefit of consumers. However, the ultimate objective of the single market could not be fully achieved while monetary barriers continued to prevent the free flow of goods, services and capital by imposing unpredictable and erratic exchange rate movements and transaction costs. The last step in this process will be the euro cash changeover at the end of this year; it will enable not only companies but all our citizens to enjoy all the benefits of using the same monetary instrument throughout Europe, just like Americans do today with the dollar throughout the United States. b)  Moreover, the introduction of the euro brings about a significant change in the economic and financial environment. The introduction of the euro has been a strong catalyst for mergers and acquisitions in the euro area. The European M&A market has been in 2000 one of the most dynamic in the world with operations totalling around one trillion euro. The single monetary policy encourages structural changes in the financial sector, in both the euro area money market and longer-term capital markets. This gives euro area investors greater possibilities and improved financing and investment conditions.
The central bank will ensure that economic agents do not believe that inflation of 5 per cent has become the normal level,  29  The new recognition that policy should be based on confidence rather than a series of surprises reflects the influence of theoretical developments on practical policy, c.f. footnote 24. 30  In recent times, central banks throughout the world have become more independent but at the same time more predictable in their communication with other economic agents. This is also related to the new recognition referred to in footnote 24. 31  Norges Bank reports on the conduct of monetary policy in its Monetary Policy Report and Annual Report. Norges Bank’s reporting obligations are set out in § 75c of the Constitution and § 3 of the Norges Bank Act. The Annual Report is submitted to the Ministry of Finance, presented to the King in Council and communicated to the Storting in the Government Credit Report. The Governor of Norges Bank also appears at an open hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs. 32  The objective of EMU is consumer price stability in member countries as a whole, rather than stable prices in the individual country. The arguments for a stable value of money are the same as for Norway. 8  BIS Review 136/2008  thereby preventing such a belief from affecting their behaviour. Under an inflation targeting regime, the central bank will accept, when shocks occur, a price increase without having to reduce other prices.

Jan F Qvigstad: On the topic of keeping promises Speech by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a seminar arranged by Norges Bank and Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi (The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters), Oslo, 11 November 2008. * 1. *  *  Why is keeping promises so difficult? This house, which now belongs to the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, was built by Hans Rasmus Astrup in 1886-87. Astrup was an entrepreneur. At the age of 20, he left Norway for Barcelona on a ship laden with a cargo of dried cod. He gradually built up a large trading business and later became an industrialist, not unlike businessmen of our own era. 1 For innovators and the business sector, a stable operating environment has always been important, providing a foundation for adaptation, economic growth and social progress. A stable value of money is also a component of this foundation. We were taught as children to keep our promises. If we made a promise, we had to make good on it. But we were also taught that we should not promise too much. If we do not keep our word, others lose confidence in us and our credibility takes a toll. In recent months, we have witnessed that this is of particular importance for the financial system. A proximate example is the situation in our neighbouring country Iceland.
The MPC has proved to be one of those rare “instantly invented precedents” that seem to have worked. It may not achieve the cult status of the Nine Worthies who, in the Middle Ages, inspired poetry, sculpture and stained glass windows. As one writer has remarked, “If one reviews the list of virtues that contemporaries found valuable in a knight - courtesy, loyalty, prowess, hardiness, largesse, and frankness - the Nine Worthies seem to meet the standard”. If that level of achievement is no more than an aspiration for its nine members, at least the MPC can claim a record of reasonable competence during its first five years. As Stephen Bayley remarked in 1986, “civilisations are remembered by their artefacts, not their bank-rates”.

Mr Bäckström reports on the significance of risk management  Speech given by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors and President of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Risk Management Forum, organised by Ernst & Young, in Stockholm on 3 February 2000. *  *  *  First a word of thanks for the invitation to attend this forum and discuss future risk management. I shall be talking about the socioeconomic aspects of financial risks and what the authorities are doing in this field. Why is the financial sector so important? What makes the authorities so concerned about the financial sector? Why don’t they focus to the same extent on, say, the forest industries, car manufacturing or even on other service industries? The reason, of course, is that the financial sector - banks in particular - performs such special and central functions in a modern economy. It is not the case that parliaments, governments, supervisors and central banks around the world are particularly concerned about individual banks. What matters is the part that financial institutions play in sophisticated modern systems for credit and payments. Virtually every economic transaction involves a payment service of some kind; it can take the form of banknotes, payments on account or the provision of credit. It follows that if the facilities for payments by households and firms are seriously disrupted, the consequences for the real economy may be disastrous.
William C Dudley: Are recent college graduates finding good jobs? Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS), at the Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City, 27 June 2013. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome once again to the New York Fed’s Regional Economic Press Briefing. I am pleased to have this opportunity to talk with the journalists covering our region – and through you to the people in our District. This morning I will briefly discuss conditions in the national economy and then focus on regional economic conditions, with particular attention to the question of whether recent college graduates are finding good jobs. We will examine the trends and see how they are playing out in the region. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. National economic conditions I would like to begin by taking stock of where we are at the moment. Then I will address my expectations for the performance of the economy over the remainder of 2013 and into 2014. Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, we have had 15 consecutive quarters of positive growth of real GDP. However, the average annual growth rate over that period has been just 2.1 percent.

Intensified industry involvement in curriculum design and delivery through increased apprenticeship, hands-on training, real-life simulations and specialised employer training programme can help students gain real working experience. This system, enabled by appropriate financial support and enhanced coordination with the public sector can help to strengthen TVET as a viable alternative to traditional tertiary education and hence, improve the quality of graduates. Concluding message Let me conclude. Structural shifts in the configuration of our economy will continue to drive further evolution in the workforce. The call to action is both evident and urgent. This means renewed opportunities for everyone here today. We have leaders representing the government, industry, training providers, institutions of higher learning and public policy. We ought to focus our common efforts on improving access and delivery of upskilling initiatives, enhancing workplace policies to improve productivity and orientating higher learning curriculum towards market needs. Talent is at the core of Malaysia's journey towards becoming a high-income nation. I hope we will come together and work towards a future where our talent is nurtured, and our workforce is equipped with the necessary skills of the century. On that note, I wish you productive discussions ahead. Thank you again. 1 BNM RES Survey  4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Thus, the Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose slightly (1 percentage point (pp)) to 48.8 in February, remaining in recession territory over the last four months4. The European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator has also contracted since the beginning of the year. Despite the extraordinarily positive news of the availability of the vaccines and the roll-out of the vaccination campaigns since end-2020, the crisis is expected to be highly persistent. Under the baseline scenario of the Eurosystem’s latest projections, published in December and updated next week, the euro area economy would not regain its pre-crisis GDP level until 2022 Q2, when it would still be 3.7% below the level projected for that quarter before the crisis.5  4  In February, the Services PMI improved by a modest 0.3 pp to 45.7, much less than the Manufacturing PMI, which increased by 3.1 pp and remains in the expansionary zone at 57.9. 5  Under this baseline scenario, euro area GDP was projected to shrink by 7.3% in 2020 then grow by 3.9% in 2021, one point less than projected in September. Drawing on the preliminary estimate of the euro area National Accounts, GDP ultimately appears to have decreased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2020, somewhat less than expected. 5  As regards the euro area’s inflation outlook, the ECB projected a slight recovery for 2021, increasing from 0.2% in 2020 — it ultimately rose by 0.3% — to 1%. This recovery would continue in 2022 and 2023 (to 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively).

The process allows new products to be developed with a careful risk management which will improve customer satisfaction and reduce regulatory burden. At the moment, many new technology projects have been tested in the regulatory sandbox including blockchain, biometric and QR Code payment. - Enacting Payment Systems Act for governing payment businesses: The law is initiated by BOT and Ministry of Finance with the objective to effectively oversee the fastchanging payment systems in this advanced digital technology period. The BOT oversight function will be more flexible and modern, support innovations, in line with international standard as well as promote security and customer protection. The law has been recently approved by the National Legislative Assembly, and is in a process to enforce. The above projects will support financial inclusion of all sectors and enhance Thailand’s financial infrastructure to be more efficient and safe, reduce costs of stakeholders, and support further innovations. Today, I would like to talk about the development and implementation of the QR Code standard, which is an important collaboration between Thai and foreign service providers that can assist the previous developments. The QR Code standard has four major principles and benefits. The first one is being consistent with international standards. This is the first time that five global payment card network providers and Thai payment service providers have worked together to use standardized QR Code.
As a result of the turbulence on the financial markets, however, the impact of monetary policy was weaker than normal in 2009. The Riksbank responded to these problems by complementing monetary policy with extensive lending to the banks. So, what was the nature of the forecasts and assessments that formed the basis for the monetary policy decisions? The repo rate was cut to 1 percent and the repo-rate path was adjusted downwards in February In February, it appeared that the downturn in economic activity, in Sweden and abroad, would be more severe and would happen much more quickly than previously assessed by the Riksbank. At the monetary policy meeting on 10 February, the Riksbank therefore decided to cut the repo rate by a whole percentage point to one percent. The repo-rate path was adjusted downwards and a further repo-rate cut during 2009 was indicated (see Figure 1). 1  For a more detailed description of how one can assess monetary policy see Lars E.0. Svensson, “Assessing monetary policy”, speech at Uppsala University, 13 March 2009. 2  For a more detailed description of the arguments behind my reservations see Lars E. O. Svensson: “Why a lower repo-rate path?”, speech at Umeå University, 24 February 2010. BIS Review 32/2010  3  The Monetary Policy Report from February 2009 presented forecasts based on the Report’s main scenario and alternative forecasts based on the repo-rate path adopted at the meeting in December 2008.

Fourthly, is reinforcing buffers to withstand future shocks. This is a key area of the international reform package that aims to significantly raise the resilience of the international financial system and to promote sound risk-taking activities. The standards will see financial institutions holding larger amounts of capital, including buffers which can be drawn down as losses occur. At the same time, the standards will also require banking institutions to significantly strengthen their liquidity and funding positions. Collectively, these standards aim to strengthen the banking institutions’ ability to continue to support orderly credit intermediation, particularly during periods of instability. While carrying more equity entails greater costs of capital for banks especially in the short-term, this investment will support a more stable financial system and overall global economy as well as build the confidence of consumers and investors, particularly during periods of stress. In view of these imperatives, this is a timely juncture for the industry to reflect and take charge of the efforts to rebuild and strengthen the foundations for more sustainable finance. Critical to this is the realisation that the creation of long-term shareholder value is consistent with, and not at odds with prudent risk taking and responsible business practices. Indeed, financial institutions with a regional footprint in ASEAN have the potential to contribute to the development of the financial systems in countries where they operate. There will be tremendous payoffs to be reaped from pursuing such sustainable strategies.
The higher is the trust in the institutions, the easier it is done. And institutions themselves build credibility in the times of crisis. The second lesson is adaptability. Although resilience and adaptability are linked, they are different in important ways. Resilience entails enduring a challenge, while adaptability refers to the ability to thrive beyond it. In the EU, progress on this front is evident. We have been moving from reactive policies to strategic decision-making. The recent crises brought about some tectonic institutional enhancements: the early months of the pandemic led to the establishment of the EU recovery fund, which constituted a breakthrough for the financial solidarity of member states. The Next Generation EU package provided an anchor for investment in the  2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  green and digital transitions in a way that will support resilience and adaptability in the long term. Finally, the REPowerEU Plan aims to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels, but also entails measures for energy savings, new energy storage rules, and a strategy to buy energy together. That being said, adaptability is difficult to nurture, as we often tend to stick to existing patterns of behaviour and decision-making, especially when there is no imminent crisis that would push changes and force us to think outside the box. The last lesson that I'd like to mention (though you can derive more) is cooperation.

Literally, by rightly recognizing shipbuilding as their strategic industry and subsidizing it for centuries, they became one of the most prominent shipbuilders of their time. And metaphorically, they were indeed navigating well their economic development and maintained their independence amidst limited natural resources and practically no military power, and surrounded by hostilities from all sides (the Ottomans, Venice). They achieved that through resilience, adaptability and cooperation. In medieval Europe trade interruptions were frequent so the government of Dubrovnik tried to contain risks from food shortages by maintaining large reserves of grain and other commodities. Furthermore, they were the global frontrunners in implementing disease prevention measures, including setting up the world's first quarantine station, which was located right on the site of our concert last night. Finally, they realized that wise government policies in the field of public education, health and social welfare were instrumental in preventing social unrest in the context of frequent external shocks. At the same time, historical evidence suggests that Ragusa practiced a very prudent policy with respect to  3/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  state finances, minting of currency, and market-encouraging regulations. As for cooperation, despite hostile surroundings, Dubrovnik's military expenditures were minimal, as they instead were focusing on diplomatic efforts and negotiating skills. A historian Berkovi documented that "Dubrovnik entered into numerous international political and trade relations [and was] able to utilize [this] wisely and skilfully in the defense of [its] independence, sovereignty and economic growth".