samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The second pillar of the ECB's strategy ensures that the interplay between supply and demand in the real economy is sufficiently taken into consideration when evaluating the risks to price stability. It comprises a variety of predominantly non-monetary factors, which are relevant for future price developments. Some of the factors of the second pillar can be especially relevant in the short term, for example the development of oil prices. For monetary policy decisions, it is important to know whether, for example, shocks originate from the supply side or from the demand side of the economy, whether they exert a temporary or permanent influence on prices, or whether they result from a domestic or an external source. As we have experienced in the past few months, an oil price shock, which is an external shock from the supply side, can exert a significant direct influence on consumer prices. In such a situation, the central bank has to assess whether this direct effect will remain temporary or whether it will translate into a more permanent impact on prices. This depends to a large extent on the ability of central banks to keep inflation expectations low. Other indicators of the second pillar, for example the development of labour costs, have a more medium-term content. Under the second pillar of the strategy, the production of macroeconomic projections for real GDP growth and inflation enables some of the factors considered to be structured and summarised.

However, on the basis of the information available at present, it is likely that world economic activity will remain at an acceptable level this year. In addition, it should be borne in mind that the euro area itself is also a large domestic market - it is, in fact, the second largest in the world - accounting for over 15% of world GDP. Exports of goods and services only amount to around 17% of euro area GDP: this implies that the influence of external trade on real economic growth is limited. Instead, euro area economic activity is mainly influenced by domestic factors. Economic growth in the euro area has recovered considerably since the second half of 1999. Real GDP growth is expected to have been around 3 1/2% in 2000, compared with an average real GDP growth of 2% in the 1990s. Real GDP growth in the euro area has slowed down somewhat since the second half of 2000, as demonstrated in recently published GDP data and short-term indicators, such as industrial production and, to some extent, the European Commission's industrial confidence indicator. However, at the same time, this indicator, together with the capacity utilisation rate, have remained at a high level and continue to give a relatively favourable picture. Regarding private consumption, the European Commission's consumer confidence indicator recovered on average in December and January, following a dip in the previous months. In particular, private households were more optimistic about the future economic situation as well as their own financial situation.
We acted swiftly to defeat the manipulators at their own game with a series of measures that threw them off their guard, drove them out of the market, and raised the defences against future attacks. First, drawing on the official reserves, we went into the stock and futures markets. In the second half of August we accumulated $ billion worth of shares: I am happy to say they are now worth $ billion, but our aim was not to make money; it was simply to deter manipulation by making sure that it did not pay off. That objective was achieved. The manipulators were forced to close out their short positions, in many cases with heavy losses. And we followed through with a package of technical measures to strengthen our currency board arrangement to make our money market less susceptible to manipulation. These measures are working well. Further reforms are being introduced in the securities and futures markets to reduce the possibility of market dislocation. Our actions served their purpose of deterring market manipulation. We could not passively sit through the speculative attack and see our markets overshoot to produce profits for the manipulators, and our entire financial system brought to the brink of collapse. We do not pretend that our intervention in the markets was not a controversial act. This was not a decision that we enjoyed taking. It involved many risks, not least among them the risk of being misunderstood.

The challenge that lies ahead of us is how to include this new objective in our policy making; whether inflation targeting and financial stability can be combined or whether a new regime altogether is needed. Various new radical approaches have been mentioned so far. However, I believe that we should not discard all the hard-learned lessons and the successes of the past. Stabilizing inflation should be something that central bankers may be proud of, something that we should cherish and continue to strive for. Incorporating financial stability objectives with the inflation targeting regime should be seen as an opportunity to understand economic developments and potential macro-financial risks, to achieve both these objectives and preserve long-run economic stability. I believe the course of the monetary policy will continue to be extensively discussed in the future, including our improved understanding of the role of asset prices and financial frictions. Under the current conditions, the largest central banks in developed countries have stretched central banking theory and practice beyond traditional activities. Their balance sheets have increased beyond imagination and, in some cases, include private assets; they have accepted a much broader role and have assumed more responsibility. This all new and untested type of central banking will have a strong impact not only on the nature of monetary policy and its interaction with other central bank objectives but also on the independence and credibility of the central bank itself.
-  After this first contact, and once the Fintechs had started the actual  authorisation or registration process, the average time taken to ensure their applications were complete and decide on their legal classification was in line with the Charter – two to three weeks depending on the legal status – although  Page 3 of 5 for a third of cases it took longer; this was notably due to the sharp rise in applications (up 20% on last year). -  Once an application had been submitted, the deadline for examining it  was met in 84% of cases, with the average time standing at 12 days – less than the average of 17 days it took for applicants to respond! We are therefore well on the way to meeting the ambitious target deadlines set out in the Fintech Charter. This allows us to respond to the first criticism levelled against us: the lack of visibility over the application procedure and the amount of time they take. We shall continue our efforts to ensure we gradually get closer to our target deadlines, and not just in average terms (we have already met it this year), but for all individual cases. II. In France and Europe, we need to keep pace with the digital transformations under way Our attention is focused in particular on another aspect of the digital evolution: crypto-assets.

Our institutions – such as the Banque de France’s Lab, its Infrastructure, Innovation and Payments Directorate (DIIP), the ACPR’s Fintech-Innovation Unit, with its ACPR-AMF Fintech Forum – are fully mobilised to facilitate these initiatives and help them grow. Among these initiatives, three in particular are worth highlighting. First, those in the field of instant payments, which open a new chapter in the payments industry. Second, the continuing development of open banking, thanks to the European financial sector’s work on APIs. Last but not least, the European Payments Initiative (EPI) which will provide European citizens with a pan-European solution for everyday payments, via both a payment card and a smartphone, covering all retail use cases. With some major decisions scheduled to be taken this autumn for the actual launch of EPI, I would like to remind you here that the Banque de France fully supports this initiative, alongside the other Eurosystem national central banks and the European Commission. We are counting on you all, as participants in the financial ecosystem, to make this unique opportunity for European payments into a reality. C) We are also actively supporting financial innovation by conducting an ambitious experimentation programme for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) Several central banks have begun working seriously on the idea of issuing a CBDC, if it were to prove necessary, to preserve the anchoring role of central bank money in the digital era.
•  The central government budget – growth in public spending – influences the krone and the size of the internationally exposed business sector in the medium term. Government expenditure and revenues must be in balance in the long term. •  Wage formation, the structure of the economy and incentives determine how efficiently we use our labour resources and other economic resources. There is also an interaction: •  In its budget resolutions, the government authorities will attach importance to the effects of the budget on the Norwegian economy and will therefore take account of interest rate effects. In this way, they avoid a situation where growth in public spending and the interest rate push the economy in different directions. •  With a known monetary policy response pattern, the social partners can take into account interest rate effects when wage increases are agreed. •  Moreover, the parties to public sector negotiations can take into account that the higher pay increases are, the fewer people can be paid over government budgets. The interaction here came into clear evidence when employment in the general government sector fell after the expensive wage settlement in 2002. The authorities can achieve better economic policy results if they can commit in advance to a set of credible policy rules. Households, enterprises and capital markets are forward-looking in their decision-making. It is therefore important that the authorities do not create doubt, but on the contrary act in a long-term and predictable manner. There must be consistency between plans and actions.

For these reasons alone,  BIS Review 21/2005  3  the use of petroleum revenues may in periods deviate from the 4 per cent rule. Spending was also increased in response to the economic downturn. We can therefore safely affirm that the fiscal rule has been normative for fiscal policy. At the time of the introduction of the fiscal rule in 2001 projections pointed to a continued increase in the use of petroleum revenues. We had to expect this growth in spending to lead to weaker competitiveness in Norwegian manufacturing, either through higher wages or an appreciation of the krone. With wage growth in Norway higher than abroad, the competitive position of Norway’s manufacturing industry has weakened by about 15 per cent since the mid-1990s. Competitiveness is about 4 per cent weaker than the average for the past 30 years. The krone has been influenced by high oil and gas prices and prices for other Norwegian export goods. Monetary policy has also influenced the path for Norway’s relative costs, but the nominal value of the krone is about the same as 10 years ago. Strong growth in public spending and expectations of moderately higher growth in the use of petroleum revenues now seem to have been factored into the cost level. Over the past 30 years manufacturing has been scaled back in waves. The last wave occurred around the turn of the millennium, but a substantial decline also occurred in the period 1977 to 1984 and from 1987 to 1992.
13 [15]  Diagram 3: Downward trend for global interest rates Per cent 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  UK -2  -2  USA Euro area Sweden  -4 96  00  -4 04  08  12  16  20  Sources: National central banks and the Riksbank Note. Real government bond yields, 10-year maturity  Diagram 4: Low neutral rate makes expansionary monetary policy more difficult  Policy rate  Actual policy rate Neutral policy rate  Time  14 [15]  Diagram 5: Less monetary policy scope with lower inflation target  Diagram 6: Difficult to forecast the policy rate The Riksbank  The Market  6  6  6  6  4  4  4  4  2  2  2  2  0  0  0  0  -2  -2  -2 06  09  12  15  18  21  -2 06  09  12  15  18  Sources: Thomson Reuters and the Riksbank Note. Per cent. The Riksbank's forecasts for the repo rate and market forward rates. Forward rates are a measure of the market agents’ expected repo rate according to different derivative contracts. They are estimated around the same time as the repo rate forecasts. 15 [15]  21

Allow me to recapitulate the consequences in a few words: various banks, stock brokerage firms and securities houses lost part or even all of their staff, their business premises, their backup facilities and their lines of communication. The markets remained closed on the following day, the equity markets even until the end of the week. From a systemic point of view, of even greater consequence than the closing of the equity market was the fact that the two markets for US government paper and for commercial paper, the main vehicles for short-term liquidity equalisation between market participants, had ceased to operate. Payment and settlement systems started to break down. Securities and credit balances totalling billions were thus blocked at some banks while lacking at others. Even though the terror attacks were concentrated on New York and Washington, in the beginning they not only paralysed Wall Street but they also threatened to undermine significant parts of the international financial system. It is much too soon, and this is not the proper place, to make an assessment of the profound human, social and political implications of the terror attacks. The resilience of the banks and the financial markets must be emphasised, however. A week after the attacks, business was almost back to usual again. In most cases, the banks and securities houses affected managed to solve their problems, some of which were immense. Neither a stock market crash nor a breakdown of parts of the financial system set in either in the United States or anywhere else.
·  Debt restructuring as well as some positive environment in the economy, especially buoyant export growth in 1998 until the first half of 1999, together with the transfer of NPL to AMC and write-off alter full provisioning, helped NPL to decline from the peak of 48% of credit in mid 1999 to around 18% presently. The current challenges Against this background of achievements, I would now like to turn to the current challenges. The first is the challenge facing monetary policy. Key concern of macroeconomic policy in Thailand at this time is the weak domestic economy. This concern has been met by an accommodative stance of fiscal and monetary policies. But the external environment in which the Thai economic policy operates has changed considerably since the end of last year. The global economy is now slowing with possible substantial impact on the growth performance of the regional economies and on financial markets. Because of the strong dependency on exports, Asia will be one region most affected by the slowdown. Many countries have revised downward their export and growth estimates. Some have seen increased pressure on the external current account and the exchange rate. A key risk to the current environment is the global slowdown coinciding with a period of increased market volatility. This increase in market volatility could come about following possible further repricing of financial assets in the key markets abroad.

3 These requirements were further tightened in 2014 and 2019, in response to increasing vulnerabilities in the mortgage and residential real estate markets. Furthermore, Switzerland has a flexible regulatory framework that allows for both a broad and a sectoral application of the CCyB. In 2013, the Federal Council decided to activate a sectoral CCyB (SCCyB), following a proposal by the SNB. We deemed it to be the most costeffective response, given that vulnerabilities at the time – and even now – were concentrated in the residential real estate and mortgage markets. 4 The SCCyB was increased in 2014, deactivated at the onset of the pandemic, and has just recently been reactivated to a higher level. The SCCyB increases capital requirements associated with domestic residential mortgage loans while leaving those for other exposures unchanged. The sectoral focus therefore helps to minimise potential side effects on other credit segments and at the same time ensures an increase in overall banking sector resilience, since mortgage claims are the largest asset on Swiss banks’ balance sheets. 5  Experience with macroprudential instruments so far All the instruments we have been discussing have become part of the macroprudential toolkit in many economies since the GFC. Now over ten years on, we can draw first conclusions about their effectiveness, which is a prerequisite for their correct implementation. Let me note, however, that the assessment is still ongoing.
It is also encouraging to note that rating agencies have come forward to formulate rating methodology and review for takaful operators. Third area relates to the need for joint effort to shape prudential rules for takaful. For the formulation of prudential standards, the setting up of the IFSB remained one of the landmark developments in this decade. Established in 2002, the IFSB's core role is to promote prudent, transparent and robust development of the Islamic financial services industry through the promulgation of international prudential standards that are consistent with the principles of Shariah. The IFSB provides the platform for cooperation among the regulators through meetings, conference and the setting-up of working groups that give  BIS Review 95/2007  3  opportunity for the regulators to discuss and exchange information on issues confronting Islamic finance. For takaful industry, two developments are relevant that are: i.  the issuance of Issues Paper jointly by IFSB and IAIS on the applicability of IAIS core principles to takaful, and  ii. the formation of a working group to formulate corporate governance standard for takaful industry. In view that the formulation of the IFSB standards involves consultation with IFSB members, I would like to call more takaful operators to be members of the IFSB so as to provide the opportunity for the players to be part of the official consultation procedure for IFSB and to make comments on draft IFSB standards.

The forthcoming implementation of Basel II framework also underlines the need to address practical policy issues of supervisory cooperation. 4  BIS Review 81/2006  Are ROEs peaking? Finally, I would like to make my personal bet to the question of the day, "Are ROEs peaking?" I cannot quote the classics as a saying that "sky is the limit" proved wrong some 15 years ago just here in Sweden. At the same time, when one wants to believe the story of an unusually long economic cycle in the region I would say that the return-on-equity has not peaked but stabilised. But of course, as we all know, there is always a factor of uncertainty in every forecast - beauty as a prudence is in the eyes of a beholder. Ladies and Gentlemen: Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 81/2006  5
These two regulations must naturally be enhanced by proposals on the deposit guarantee fund and the crisis resolution mechanism, which are the two other essential pillars of the banking union. The ECB, and all the other national authorities concerned, must now continue the preparatory work so that the Single Supervisory Mechanism can become operational as soon as possible. The Banque de France and the ACP provide an important contribution and intend to play an active role in the new mechanism. This is particularly the case given that around a dozen major French banking groups will be subject, according to the criteria set out in the regulation, to direct supervision by the ECB, even though the ACP will remain responsible for day-to-day supervision. 2. Resolutely pursuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of the financial system by preparing for and implementing new regulations  The international financial regulatory framework evolved substantially in 2012, and will continue to do so in 2013. It is therefore particularly important to adapt to these changes. 2.1  The insurance sector must continue, in France and Europe, to prepare itself for the application of the new prudential regime, Solvency II  Admittedly, 2012 was marked by tough discussions about the Omnibus II Directive and in particular the question of the treatment of insurance products with long-term guarantees. These discussions were unfruitful and will delay the entry into force of Solvency II.

For example, euro-area banks have roughly € trillion to refinance in 2012, 80% of which is unsecured funding coming due. So far during 2012, only 20% has been rolled on unsecured terms, with the lion’s share on a secured basis (Chart 7). Central bank financing has played its part in this shift. Of the € billion raised on secured terms by euro-area banks so far in 2012, 80% has been associated with the ECB’s long-term refinancing operations. Gauging levels of secured financing by commercial banks is difficult. Technically, the fraction of banks’ liabilities that are secured against their assets is often called encumbrance. But data on banks’ encumbrance levels are thin on the ground. Where data exist, they are rarely on a consistent basis across banks. Some recent studies have suggested that the encumbrance ratios of banking systems within Europe may lie anywhere between 3% and 40% of their liabilities.26  25  Johnson et al (2012). 26  For example, Barclays Capital (2012). 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  That is the arithmetic. But what explains this behaviour? This, too, appears to have an arms-race element. Consider an unsecured creditor about to refinance. The larger the existing fraction of secured financing, and the greater the uncertainty about this fraction, the greater will be their incentive to seek security. Not to do so runs the risk of other creditors leapfrogging ahead of them in the seniority queue.