samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But this technology means at the same time that bitcoin is very ineffective to use, as each payment requires large amounts of time and energy. Nor is there anything to limit the supply of copies of bitcoins in the form of other cryptocurrencies. So-called stablecoins are instead based on borrowing credibility from state money by promising full back-up in a state currency. 11 However, it is very difficult for a totally private currency to gain the same credibility as state money enjoys. What do all of these challenges and changes mean for us central banks? Well, we must also adapt our activities to the new environment. This is nothing new for an 9 This has also been done at EU level, for instance through the PSD2 legislation, which enables payment service  providers, which do not have their own deposit accounts, to offer payment solutions initiated from bank accounts. This increases the circle of companies that can offer payment products. 10 For further information on this, see the CPMI report “Non-banks in retail payments” (2014). 11 For more information on stablecoins, see Arner et al. (2020). 6 [35]  institution like the Riksbank, which has existed for more than 350 years. It is difficult to survive for so long without being able to adapt. But what is new this time is how quickly we may need to adapt.

Experience has demonstrated that we have to prepare for exceptional situations, and I would not exclude anything, and equally I will not pre-commit to anything ex ante. We'll always look at the situation on the basis of our own analysis, taking everything into account. China Finance: The EU member countries have endorsed somewhat coordinated fiscal stimulating packages. What's your view on the impact of large scale fiscal stimulus on the short and medium term growth and on the soundness of government finance in view of the Stability and Growth Pact? Indeed some Euro members sovereign debts have been downgraded recently as they are seen as overindebted. How serious negative impacts could this have on the credibility of the monetary union, given that the ECB has no fiscal power? Trichet: The most recent forecast of the European Commission shows that this year the budget deficit in the euro area countries will reach an average of 4%, with 7 countries out of the 16 above the 3% threshold. Its important to emphasise that this situation should be temporary and reversed as soon as possible. It should not be forgotten that the rules of the SGP are very important for the cohesion of the euro area. These rules are also underpinned by strong financial and economic principles. Governments have to take into account the fact that if their citizens consider that the fiscal policy of their government would not be sustainable in the long term, confidence would drain away.
Whether banks continue to draw down on their capital buffers to maintain lending – or whether they react defensively and deleverage to conserve capital, particularly as they approach Maximum Distributable Amount thresholds for restrictions on AT1 coupons, will be a key area for regulators to watch in the coming months. My initial assessment, however, on what we have seen is that the UK banking system has demonstrated so far that it is likely to be resilient a pretty long way into the tail of adverse shocks. The little thought experiment above illustrates that while building resilience in the financial system in good times might seem expensive, it is the better economic bet over the long run. The other major post crisis reform that we have seen operating under severe stress conditions in recent months is the changes made to derivative markets and particularly the requirement that derivatives trades be prudently ‘margined’ or collateralised against counterparty failure and – where sufficiently standardised – centrally cleared.7  10 years ago, as financial asset prices fell, a complex and under-collateralised web of ‘over the counter’ (OTC) derivative trades between financial market participants was revealed. The resulting exposures and demands for collateral greatly amplified the stress and uncertainty in the financial system.

First, as we learned 10 years ago, we need to look at how the system as a whole has performed under stress and whether and how it might be strengthened. Focussing on the resilience of one or another element without understanding its broader effect will give us a false picture. Second, such a comprehensive assessment, cannot be done by one jurisdiction or one international standard setter. And in this respect, one of the other, major planks of the post financial crisis reforms, the creation of the international Financial Stability Board (FSB) – has put us in a far better position than ten years ago. The FSB has been active and in crisis mode from the outset of this crisis. It has enabled jurisdictions and international standard setters to work together, under its umbrella to share experience, to assess risks to financial stability, and in to discuss ‘what works’ (and what doesn’t work) in addressing those risks. The FSB’s assessments also provide input to the political level of the G20. And to ensure national authorities respond in a consistent way, the FSB agreed Principles, adopted by the G20, which reiterate commitment to common international standards, using their inbuilt flexibility including buffers, while leaning against regulatory rollback. Going forward, and just as after the global financial crisis, the FSB can and should enable us to bring together the various perspectives in the central bank and regulatory communities to determine whether we do indeed need more resilience in the system and, if so, how to achieve it.
I should also like to reiterate that the prospects for a stronger potential for growth in the euro area will depend very much on progress made in enhancing the flexibility of labour and goods markets in the euro area. Although reform efforts in several countries have been heading in the right direction, there is still much to be done when looking at the area as a whole. Finally, let me also say a few words about recent exchange rate developments. I noted earlier that, from a monetary policy point of view, these developments are a cause for concern as they add to the upward pressure on consumer prices in the euro area. These concerns are compounded by the fact that the exchange rate of the euro does not appear appropriate when looking at economic fundamentals. As you are aware, we have been expressing this concern for some time. In the meantime, we have witnessed a considerable improvement in the economic growth prospects for the euro area. At the same time, owing to measures taken by the Governing Council, the outlook for price stability in the medium term in the euro area has remained intact. At present, inflation in the euro area is among the lowest in the world. The fact that the euro has continued to depreciate over recent months is not in line with these strong economic fundamentals in the euro area. Recent global exchange rate developments are also not in line with international balance of payments positions.

Taken together, these factors should underpin the growth of private consumption and investment, and thus that of domestic demand. The positive outlook for the euro area is also supported by external developments. The outlook for growth of the world economy, and thus for growth of euro area exports, has remained favourable. Forecasts of world growth have consistently been revised upwards over the past few months. Expectations of a period of sustained economic growth in the euro area can also be found in euro area bond markets. Overall, longer-term bond yields in the euro area have shown a very high level of stability in the course of this year, with fluctuations being contained within a relatively narrow range. The annual rate of increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was 2.4% in July 2000. Recent consumer price developments in the euro area have been very much influenced by the strong rise in oil prices and the depreciation of the exchange rate of the euro. 1  BIS Review 74/2000  While monetary policy cannot address short-term developments in prices, it is imperative for monetary policy that medium-term upward pressure on prices be contained. The risk that the current pressure on the HICP might spill over onto costs and prices determined in the domestic economy must be taken seriously. This holds true in particular in the context of the favourable prospects for economic growth. The Governing Council reacted to this picture by raising the main ECB interest rates at its meeting on 31 August 2000.
Indeed over time, I think that the “ECB watchers” have increasingly come to understand and to respect our monetary policy. We have also become better at explaining it. It is an ongoing process. But things are on the right track. Most importantly, we have done our duty. We have maintained price stability. And we have done it in a pragmatic fashion, with a steady hand. There were many who feared that in the early years of EMU, the euro area economy might be a sacrificial lamb on the altar of credibility. According to this view, the ECB would raise interest rates unnecessarily to prove its anti-inflation credentials. The facts do not bear this out. A number of shocks have hit the euro area economy over the past few years. But we did not over-react. We held our nerve. Even in its infancy, the ECB showed itself to be a mature central bank. I am proud to have been its President these past five years. *** I do not retire without some regret. There is a lot that I shall miss. I shall miss my colleagues in the Executive Board. I shall miss my colleagues in the Governing Council. I shall certainly miss the regular meetings and contacts I have with many of you, especially in the Eurogroup. I have to say that I was touched when I received your invitation to this special dinner. And I am touched that so many of you have taken the trouble to travel to Venice to say goodbye.

This past Friday we announced a plan of continued daily overnight repo operations through October 10, accompanied by three twoweek term repo operations that span the month end.1 The goal of these actions is the same as for recent open market operations: foster conditions in money markets to keep the federal funds rate within the target range. This episode reminds us all of the importance of having well- functioning markets and the vital role that the Federal Reserve plays in supplying liquidity to the system when markets are under stress. We were prepared for such an event, acted quickly and appropriately, and our actions were successful. Friday’s announcement on open market operations to address potential quarter-end funding pressures on interest rates followed this same approach: quickly diagnose the problem, develop the right action plan, and execute that plan. At the same time, it is equally important that we examine these recent market dynamics and their implications for the liquidity needs in relation to the overall amount of reserves held at the Federal Reserve. We will continue to monitor and analyze developments closely. As Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated in his most recent press conference, the FOMC will assess the implications for the appropriate level of reserves and time to resume organic growth of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet consistent with the successful execution of the FOMC’s ample reserves framework.2 That’s enough on recent events for now. I’ll turn to another very important issue, reference rate reform.
Chart: Productivity growth in advanced economies Productivity growth has been declining in advanced economies since the beginning of the 2000s. The willingness to invest has been low since the financial crisis. To what extent this is related to the economic downturn remains to be seen. Better times may eventually entice investors, but it is also possible that the substantial changes in the global economy have had a more lasting effect on the willingness to invest and the growth capacity of western economies. Chart: Real wages in mainland Norway, the US and Germany A demanding restructuring process is underway in the traditional industrialised countries. In the US and Germany, real wages have barely risen since the turn of the millennium. Income inequality has deepened. This may in part be related to the global change in the price of labour. In other countries, particularly in Europe, economic restructuring is throwing a large number of people into unemployment. Over 26 million people are now unemployed in the EU today, almost 10 million more than in 2007. Low growth, high unemployment and high debt levels are not a good combination. Even though there are signs of a moderate revival of activity abroad, growth may remain low for a protracted period. Chart: Real wages and productivity for mainland Norway Real wage growth in Norway has diverged substantially from that observed in Germany and the US. This is attributable to the sharp price rise for Norwegian goods in recent years. Norway’s terms of trade have improved.

When Norges Bank had finished collecting the silver tax around 1820, the Bank’s silver holdings came to somewhat more than 50 grams per inhabitant, which is the equivalent of about one silver spoon. The value of the Fund has just recently exceeded NOK 5 trillion, or about NOK 1 million per inhabitant. Chart: Return on Fund accounts for one third of its total value The Fund’s results have been favourable. Since 1998, the cumulative return on the Fund has been close to NOK 1 800 billion, which is more than a third of the Fund’s total value. So far, our nation has earned a solid return on its investments. Quite paradoxically, low growth and low interest rates abroad are probably the main factors behind the solid performance of the Fund over the past two to three years. Chart: Annual return on the GPFG Since the end of the 1990s, a persistent fall in yields has driven up government bond prices. In recent years, the unconventional monetary policy measures of the world’s major central banks have contributed to even lower interest rates and higher prices for equities and other 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  securities. This has resulted in above-normal returns on the Fund’s investments. But today there is no longer room for a considerable fall in interest rates and equity prices have risen to fairly high levels. Chart: Return consists of two elements Our measure of final return includes both capital gains and direct cash flows, which comprise dividend and interest income.
2  BIS Review 137/2007  And finally the ongoing process of significant market correction which we experience since August should trigger a very deep and candid review in all the areas which have a substantial influence on the functioning of the global financial markets. This review process should concentrate on what could be done to promote financial stability and to diminish to the maximum extent possible the elements of procyclicality that may be inbuilt in a large number of fields. The financial stability forum, which has been set up by the G7, under the proposal of Hans Tietmeyer, to draw the lessons of the Asian crisis, is in an ideal position to identify the areas where appropriate improvements could be introduced. I encourage very strongly the Financial Stability Forum and all the Committees that are actively working at a global level, including the Basel Committee, to draw all the lessons of the present turbulences and to examine the situation without any complacency.

Victoria Cleland: Global action to enhance cross-border payments Speech (virtual) by Ms Victoria Cleland, Executive Director for Banking, Payments and Innovation of the Bank of England, at the Silk Road Cash & Payments conference, Almaty, 29 March 2023. *** Cross-border payments are crucial to the smooth functioning of the global economy, and their importance is growing in our ever more interconnected, global digital economy. The value of cross-border payments is forecast to increase from almost $ trillion in 2017 to over $ trillion by 20271. Yet cross-border payments are typically, though I want to stress not always, slower, more costly, less transparent, and harder to access than domestic payments. And this impacts not just big wholesale players but consumer and remittance payments too. There are instances of payments taking up to 10 days2 and costing more than 10%3 of the payment value, and all too often with timing and cost unknown upfront. The G20 made enhancing cross-border payments a priority in 2020 and developed a roadmapOpens in a new window for delivering improvements. Since then, organisations from around the world have come together and made significant strides to lay the foundations for enhancing cross-border payments.
For central banks the message is that, by widening their information net, they could stand to benefit from the wisdom of crowds. But there are limits to how and to how far you would wish to widen the net if the crowd is to add signal rather than noise. To illustrate this point, consider the following thought-experiment. Imagine you have an endowment of time – 10,000 hours – to make as informed a decision as possible on a complex question. I have not chosen 10,000 hours randomly. In his book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell argues, based on a detailed set of case studies, that it takes around 10,000 hours for one person to command true expertise in a subject area. Now let’s choose a complex, and topical, question: will Artificial Intelligence (AI) cause mass unemployment? It is well-known that the views of experts (and non-experts) differ widely on this complex question and that the outcome is very uncertain. The problem we need to solve is not this but a simpler one: how many people should we choose to help inform our view on the impact of AI on unemployment? 37  The conditioning assumptions (such as the assumed path of interest rates) and purpose of forecasts will vary between central banks and other forecasters. 38 Mankodi and Pike (2018) discuss whether central bankers can become superforecasters. 14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  14  One possible answer to this question is one person.

Last year industrial output declined markedly in all major regions of the world economy. In the US it appears that the decline may be coming to a halt. Developments in Japan are still highly uncertain. In the US, confidence indicators have recently shown some signs of improvement. The decline recorded following the terrorist acttacks on 11 September last year has been partly reversed. Nor does it appear that households in the euro area have become more pessimistic in the last few months. However, the indicators suggest that they still consider the economic situation to be fairly negative. Various institutions’ growth forecasts for 2002 were lowered substantially through 2001. Due to sluggish economic developments, many central banks reduced their key rates last year, in some cases quite appreciably. With the exception of Japan, no significant further downward adjustments of growth forecasts have been made in the last few months. Norges Bank expects international consumer price inflation to be low both this year and in 2003. This will contribute to a low, and in some cases negative, rise in prices for imported consumer goods. During the autumn of 2001, we saw signs that the international turnaround was also being felt in Norway. Some export industries, travel and tourism were most vulnerable. The oil price fell sharply. Since last autumn the oil price has hovered around USD 18-20 per barrel. The price of oil futures has remained stable at around USD 20 per barrel.
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Reflections on Malaysia's advancing Islamic finance industry Welcoming remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Shariah Advisory Council (SAC) 20-Year Anniversary Dinner, Kuala Lumpur, 12 December 2017. * * * Welcome to the 20th Anniversary Dinner of the Shariah Advisory Council of Bank Negara Malaysia, or in short the SAC. On behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia and the audience here, we would like to express our utmost gratitude to His Royal Highness Sultan of Perak Darul Ridzuan and Her Royal Highness for gracing tonight’s dinner. This event is a special occasion. Gathered here tonight are a coterie of intellectuals who help shape the development of Islamic finance in Malaysia. The SAC, in its 20-year history, has established itself as the foremost institution in developing and expanding the tenets of Shariah for Islamic finance. I would like to take the opportunity to express our heartfelt thanks to the distinguished members of the SAC – past and present – for their contributions to the advancement of the Islamic Finance industry in Malaysia. As we reflect on the journey of the SAC, I reminisce of the great Shariah scholars from the glory days of Islam. Islamic civilisation during this era flourished upon a strong foundation of knowledge, wisdom and tolerance by its leaders and scholars. While consensus building was a key part of the culture, differing views, conclusions and preferences helped unite, rather than divide.

More importantly, while EMEs accounted for about 55% of global GDP since 2009, their contribution to global economic growth was as high as 80%. So, a slowdown in EMEs will be an impediment to recovery in the US and other advanced economies. 15. Fifthly, zero interest rates and QE have indirectly widened the income gap. Because of ultra-low interest rates and excess liquidity seeking better returns, stock and property markets rallied in many parts of the world. This is especially true in places with more promising growth prospects like Mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore. However, lowincome groups, with little if any stocks and properties, have missed out altogether. And their savings in deposit accounts have earned next to nothing. This has exacerbated inequality, resulting in negative implications for social stability and harmony. 16. Sixthly, zero interest rates and QE have changed the global investment environment. Yields on the traditionally more conservative bonds and fixed income investments have declined. For example, 10-year US Treasuries’ yield has fallen from 5% to about 2%, and some sovereign bond yields in the Eurozone have even plunged into the negative. At the same time, both the exchange rates and bond prices in EMEs have experienced sharp swings recently. With the soon-to-start normalisation of US interest rates, and distorting low-returns and high-volatility in the bond markets, the investment environment will become even more complex and difficult. 17.