samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
First, the HKMA is a banking supervisor and banks are the key players in the financial markets in Hong Kong. Second, the HKMA is also itself a major asset owner and manager, with over $ billion of Exchange Fund assets under management. This makes it easier for the HKMA to make the right connections and speak the same language of the asset owners or managers overseas. Thirdly, the HKMA senior management is fortunate to have the support from a small but dedicated team of highly professional staff in the outreaching programmes. Finally, the HKMA is part of the Government and it is easier for us to refer issues or problems to the relevant government bureaux or departments for consideration or actions. In this context, I would like to thank in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  particular the SFC and InvestHK, which have been working very closely with us to provide the much needed advice or help when overseas financial institutions are thinking of locating or relocating their operations to Hong Kong. Concluding remarks 13. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to end my comments by saying this: competition amongst financial centres has always been fierce and will be even more so in the future. Competition is quite like rowing a boat up a river, in which case there is a Chinese saying: “ 逆水行舟，不進則退”or in English: “excel and advance” or “stay put and be left behind”! 14.

This could be part of a European Monetary Fund, provided that its scope of action is extended beyond the current European Stability Mechanism. -  A micro accelerator: i.e. a Financing Union for Investment and Innovation. The aim is to mobilise the EUR 350 billion savings surplus of the euro area, notably to shore up equity which is the key to an innovation economy, and also to foster synergies, thanks to an integrated steering mechanism, between the Juncker investment Plan, the Capital Markets Union and Banking Union. -  A fiscal accelerator, once we have increased trust between Member States and made headway towards greater economic convergence: the euro area budget could be used to  Page 6 sur 6 finance, for the benefit of all countries, certain “European common goods” such as digital technology, energy transition, security, and migration controls. -  An institutional accelerator: The fourth is not an accelerator in substance, but rather a “facilitator” for the first three. In terms of institutions, we would need first and foremost a euro area Finance Minister, President of the Eurogroup and member of the Commission, backed by a European Treasury; but also a euro area Parliament group, in order to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the institutions and decisions. But it only makes sense if we make progress on the substance: if not, it would be little more than mere window dressing. The latter two accelerators, fiscal and institutional, would require Treaty changes, unless they were to be very limited.
Unlike the situation today, not only banks, but also households and companies would be able to open an account with the SNB. There might also be other forms of digital central bank money for the public, e.g. digital banknotes which would be issued rather like private cryptocurrencies. From an economic perspective, however, the features of the different forms of digital central bank money are largely identical. Therefore, when I speak about digital central bank money, I will continue to use the example of money held at the SNB in the form of a sight deposit account. 10 Implementation throws up a number of practical questions: How would eligibility for digital SNB money be defined? Would residence in Switzerland be the decisive factor? What account holder due diligence would the SNB have to carry out as part of compliance? What services might account holders expect? Would deposits generate interest and, if so, at what rate? In addition, would it be possible to invest all of one’s assets at the SNB, or would there be an upper limit? Depending on the answers to these questions, the economic impact of broader access to digital central bank money could vary greatly. This evening, we are principally interested in the implications for commercial banks’ money and credit creation. Much would depend on the structuring of any sight deposit accounts, most especially with respect to interest rates.

The profit they derive from their lending activities ultimately result from the interest spread between loans and deposits. It compensates banks for the credit and liquidity risks assumed, for services linked to customer deposits, and for the assessment and monitoring of borrowers. So banks will only grant a loan if doing so makes economic sense. Lending does not automatically generate a profit – each loan is the result of a careful weighing-up of risks and returns. In their calculations, banks take into consideration factors such as current and future interest on loans and deposits, the likelihood of deposit withdrawals and credit defaults, and the liquidity and capital adequacy requirements in force. All these factors constrain the lending – and thus also money creation – activities of commercial banks. Central banks, for their part, take a special interest in the impact of monetary policy on money and credit creation within the banking system. As you know, the SNB steers a short-term interest rate with its monetary policy and thereby influences the level of interest rates. A tightening of monetary policy leads to a rise in interest rates and thus dampens the demand for loans. Moreover, rising interest rates cause the economy to slow, which further reduces demand for loans. Higher interest rates also have a negative impact on the banks’ credit supply. As a rule, rising interest rates increase the likelihood of credit defaults, which means that the quality of banks’ loan portfolios deteriorates in the eyes of market participants.
Four years later, employment in the United States has still not recovered more than approximately one third of the fall that occurred during the crisis. To refer back to what I said earlier, one could say that Europe’s debt crisis is a variation on the theme of excessive indebtedness, although primarily for the public sector in this case. Figure 10 shows how much unemployment has increased in several other countries that have suffered a downturn on the housing market. I have included Sweden and the OECD as a whole for the purposes of comparison. Figure 10. Large increase in unemployment in countries affected by a downturn on the housing market Unemployment, index 2007=100 350  350  OECD Ireland (-30.8 per cent) Spain (-14.8 per cent)  300  300  Denmark (-19.4 per cent) UK (-13 per cent) USA (-17.5 per cent)  250  250  Sweden (-0 per cent)  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0 00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  Note. The figures in brackets present the fall in real housing prices from the peak to the trough. The broken lines represent OECD forecasts.

A higher policy rate may also contribute to strengthening the krone exchange rate, which may curb imported goods inflation further out. Chart 3 Substantial labour shortages, but signs of cooling Activity in the Norwegian economy is high. Employment has risen over the past year, and labour shortages have become pronounced. Unemployment is at historically low levels. We are now seeing clear signs of a slowdown in the Norwegian economy. High inflation and rising interest rates have led to a fall in household consumption. Labour shortages appear to have eased somewhat. High electricity prices are also reducing profits for many firms. We projected a cooling of the economy in the course of autumn this year, but it now appears that the economy has passed a cyclical peak and that the slowdown may prove to be more pronounced. We have revised down our projections for economic activity ahead on the back of higher inflation in Norway and a weaker outlook for our trading partners. As things stand, prices will rise at a notably faster pace than wages this year. Many households will face a squeeze on their finances. Some people will find it difficult to cope with higher borrowing costs on top of the broad rise in prices. But most households have the finances to cover increased expenses. Next year we expect wages to rise at about the same pace as prices. Our projections for wage growth are in line with the expectations of the social partners according to Norges Bank’s Expectations Survey.
With an estimate of the equilibrium values of debt ratios or asset prices, for example, we can study the gap between their current value and their equilibrium value.4 If the gap is wide, the danger of a significant consolidation is present. However, the results must be interpreted carefully. Equilibrium values are inherently difficult to determine, and it is not obvious that there is a stable and significant relationship between gaps and future economic activity. In addition, decisive factors in the judgement of the financial situation, like agents’ confidence in the financial system, are also difficult to incorporate in the analysis. A related approach is to analyse the potential impact of adverse macroeconomic shocks on financial stability. Stresstests are commonly used for this purpose. Such tests investigate banks’ ability to withstand different types of shocks under various economic conditions and with different monetary policy responses. When conducting stresstests, macroeconomic models have proven to be valuable. However, considerable work remains to be done in order to capture the behaviour of economic agents in the case of extreme macroeconomic events. 2  Hoggarth, Glenn, Ricardo Reis and Victoria Saporta (2001). “Cost of banking system instability: some empirical evidence” Bank of England Financial Stability Review, Issue 10, Article 5, June  3  See for example Borio, Claudio (2003). “Towards a macroprudential framework for financial supervision and regulation?” BIS Working Paper No. 128  4  See for example Borio, Claudio and Philip Lowe (2004). “Whither monetary and financial stability? The implications of evolving policy regimes” BIS Working Paper no.

Ardian Fullani: Agreement between the Bank of Albania and the Competition Authority Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding, Tirana, 17 July 2007. *  *  *  Dear participants, I am pleased to have concluded this co-operation agreement between the Bank of Albania and the Competition Authority. In observance of the legal responsibilities of the institutions we represent, this agreement concludes the formal basis for cooperative efforts, in terms of achieving the objective of enhancing the competition conditions, in which the banking and financial activity is being conducted. Fair competition promotes the efficiency in the banking business and refines the composition and the functioning of the banking market, by providing significant services to clients and the public at large, being users of banking and financial services. It has been for some years now that the Albanian economy and the financial system are in an intensive process of integration into the regional economies and markets. This process requires the improvement of the legal and regulative framework for developing the business and the enhancement of the human and institutional capacities to cope with the challenges deriving from the economic openness and the enhancement of competition.
Staying Connected  Speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England  Markets Forum 2018, Bloomberg Headquarters Thursday 24 May 2018  I am grateful to Alice Carr, Ankita Mehta and Tim Taylor for their assistance in preparing these remarks. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  Thank you Peter (Grauer) for that introduction and for hosting the inaugural Markets Forum. This incredible Fosters + Partners building connects the Roman Temple of Mithras in its foundations to the glories of St. Paul’s in its vista, while pushing the boundaries of sustainable office design. It is a node in a global network that spins data, information, and capital instantaneously across the planet. We have been reminded in recent years that networks have the power to divide, as well as connect. And we are here today to continue the process of reconnecting financial markets to the real economy. Three years ago, in the wake of a series of scandals ranging from mis-selling to manipulation, and following a period when markets had become ever more connected to each other but disconnected from those they serve, the Bank of England, the Financial Conduct Authority and HM Treasury published the recommendations of the Fair and Effective Markets Review (FEMR). 1  FEMR was ground-breaking and ambitious in its recommendations to restore trust in the markets on which we all depend. At today’s event, policymakers and market participants will take stock of the progress in building fair and effective markets.

Over time the private sector will develop a wider range of products referencing SONIA. Futures contracts have already been created. We can expect Floating Rate Notes and loans referencing SONIA to follow. The end point should be an ecosystem for interest rate markets which has an altogether healthier foundation than at present. Developing the infrastructure around the near risk-free benchmarks globally, and assisting market participants in dealing with legacy Libor portfolios, is a significant opportunity for innovation. Firms here in London are well placed to take advantage. As mentioned, international authorities are working closely together, and I know Bill Dudley is going to pick up the baton and talk more about the transition to risk-free rates from a US perspective. It is an immense pleasure to introduce Bill. It is an honour that he is here at this Markets Forum to give his last keynote speech as President of the New York Federal Reserve. And it is appropriate given his deep commitment to fighting misconduct and improving standards of behaviour in the institutions we regulate and supervise. Bill had the wisdom to appreciate quickly how cultural and ethical issues lay at the heart of the global financial crisis, and he has been a consistent and strong voice in arguing for what needs to be done to improve individual behaviour, firm culture, and industry ethics. On behalf everyone, I would like to thank you Bill for your many, invaluable contributions throughout this exceptional period for financial markets and the global economy.
Brian P Sack: The SOMA portfolio at $ trillion Remarks by Mr Brian P Sack, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, 20 July 2011. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me here tonight to give these remarks. These events organized by the Money Marketeers provide an excellent venue to talk about the Federal Reserve’s involvement in financial markets, given the focus and expertise of your group. As you know, the Federal Reserve recently completed its second round of large-scale asset purchases, known inside the Fed as LSAP2 and to everyone else in the world as QE2. With the program now in the books, I thought it would be a good time to look back and assess the experience with LSAP2. Specifically, I will discuss the effectiveness of the program relative to its stated objectives, and I will describe some the operational challenges that we faced in implementing it. Lastly, I will touch on several issues related to the potential evolution of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet going forward. As always, my comments do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or any other members of the Federal Reserve System. LSAP2 and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet Let me start with a few facts.

On the contrary, one of the most important tasks with regard to the financial system is to facilitate risk-taking; to manage and redistribute financial risks. Methods for this have developed at an incredible rate over the past decade. The new possibilities for risk management have strongly contributed to increasing the efficiency of the financial sector and thereby the economy as a whole. However, it is important that the risks are managed carefully and that they are reasonable in relation to the capital allocated to cover them. They must therefore be clear and transparent to all involved. In this respect, the financial institutions and society as a whole have no fundamentally difference of interests. No one wishes to be surprised by risks they knew nothing about. The Riksbank also works on financial risk issues in many international contexts, in the Basel Committee, the IMF and on committees within the EU and ECB. As the financial markets to a large degree operate across national borders, it is often necessary to establish joint regulations and principles at international level. Throughout, the important issue is to weigh stability concerns against efficiency aspects, to find regulations that make the risks transparent and limit them in relation to the available capital. This should also be achieved without excessively encroaching upon the efficiency and development of the markets. My overall theme today is how the Riksbank views developments in the risk management field from the perspective of financial stability and efficiency.
Currency reserves consist primarily of freely disposable foreign exchange reserves and of gold holdings. In retrospect, we have to remember that our freely disposable foreign exchange reserves have undergone a substantial increase, particularly after the transition to freely floating exchange rates a quarter of a century ago. At the beginning of the nineties, we therefore decided to limit future expansion to the extent of nominal economic growth. By international standards, we thus have a comfortable level of reserves. As regards gold holdings, it must be decided what proportion will still be required for monetary policy purposes in future or, conversely, what proportion should become available for other public uses. This is basically a question of how an important part of our national wealth is to be usefully employed. Both fundamental considerations and a comparison with other countries may be helpful. However, in the final analysis there is a discretionary decision to take. We have come to the conclusion that it would be appropriate to maintain around half of today’s gold holdings of approximately 2,600 tons as currency reserves. In principle, we are in favour of removing the other half of this gold from our balance sheet. However, we are willing to accept that, in a broader perspective, it may not be appropriate to outsource. In such a case, the gold holdings would have to be managed according to special criteria by external specialists under the responsibility of the National Bank.

8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  8  Uncertainty is very high From the rising spectre of global terrorism to intensifying geopolitical tensions and financial crises, for too long, for far too many people, the world seems to be getting riskier. They are right. Currently, on average across Europe and the US, policy uncertainty is around 1.5 standard xx  deviations above its historical average. In the UK, we expect currently elevated levels of uncertainty to cut 7% from investment over the next three years and 1% from GDP. Higher uncertainty has contributed to what psychologists call an affect heuristic amongst households, businesses and investors. Put simply, long after the original trigger becomes remote, perceptions endure, affecting risk perceptions and economic behaviour. Just like those who lived through the Great Depression, people appear more cautious about the future and more reluctant to take irreversible decisions. That means less willingness to put capital to work and, ultimately, lower growth. These dynamics are clearly visible in financial markets. As one illustration, for two-and-a-half centuries, the prices of government bonds and the prices of equities tended to move together: the typical bull market entails rising equity prices and falling bond yields, with the reverse in bear markets (Chart 11). Since the mid-2000s, however, this pattern has reversed and bond yields have tended to fall along with equity prices.
Øystein Olsen: Economic perspectives Annual address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank and invited guests, Oslo, 16 February 2017. * * *  Accompanying slides. On 23 October 1921 the steamship Ulvsund was taken by surprise by one of the worst storms to hit Denmark in the last century. The ship sank and all 17 people aboard lost their lives. When the winds subsided, the Danish Meteorological Institute had to weather a storm of its own when it turned out the Institute had downgraded the storm warning the evening before. In his defence, Director Carl Ryder argued that it was impossible to predict that type of storm. But his defence was in vain as it transpired that the storm had been accurately forecast by Norwegian and Swedish meteorologists. A reluctant Ryder was ordered to the city of Bergen to learn the methods used by the Norwegian and Swedish meteorologists. The Norwegian physicist Vilhelm Bjerknes had since 1917 built up what came to be known as the “Bergen School” within the field of meteorology. His work had long focused on using the laws of physics to predict the weather. But the practical breakthroughs were first achieved when he, in his own words, “had washed ashore onto Europe’s stormiest and, from a meteorological standpoint, most eventful shores”.1 The shifting weather conditions on the west coast of Norway became a natural laboratory for Bjerknes and his fellow researchers.

High unemployment and low labour force participation among women may make room for further growth in employment even if the population stops growing. The demographic situation in Norway is more favourable, but the labour force in Norway is also likely to grow at a slower pace. Labour immigration, which has made an important contribution to the labour market since the turn of the millennium, has fallen sharply in recent years. The unemployment rate is relatively low in Norway, but many have dropped out of the workforce. One in six aged between 25 and 54 was without paid work in 2016. If we are able to mobilise more people to join the workforce, labour supply growth may hold steady, but the most likely scenario is slower growth in the labour force. Chart: Productivity growth The other factor, productivity, has contributed less and less to economic growth, which is a tendency we have seen for several decades both in Norway and other advanced economies. The question then arises whether the underlying growth potential of mature economies has diminished. Chart: Growth in technology leading countries and in Norway If we broaden our perspective to span several centuries, it is the rapid rise in productivity in modern times that stands out. For a long time, there were only marginal changes in living standards from one generation to the next. In economic terms, the Middle Ages was something of an ice age. The industrial revolution that began in England in the late 18th century put an end to this inertia.