samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Both forums involve attendees from a 9 10  Information on members of the RTGS/CHAPS Board can be found at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/payment-and-settlement https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stability/financial-market-infrastructure-supervision 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  6  range of organisations to ensure input and challenge from a diverse range of stakeholders across the payments landscape, from the major, established banks through to innovative Fintechs and end-users. Looking ahead to RTGS Renewal This is an important time for the UK payments industry. In addition to the RTGS Renewal Programme, Pay.UK11 is working to build a New Payments Architecture for retail payments. There are synergies between these programmes and while we operate independently we are working closely to ensure that we co-ordinate where there are benefits to doing so, and where this will best support the payments industry. An example of our close cooperation is planning the introduction of messaging standards based on ISO 20022. The Bank and Pay.UK are working together on the introduction of a Common Credit Message (CCM) for CHAPS, Faster Payments Service (FPS) and Bacs. The Bank published a joint consultation with Pay.UK and the Payment Systems Regulator (PSR) in June.12 This set out how we propose to develop the new messaging standards to create a harmonised language for retail and wholesale payments in the UK. We will shortly be publishing our response to that consultation, which will set out our next steps. We have also created the Standards Advisory Panel (SAP)13.

Experience has shown that the monetary policy passed this demanding trial with flying colours and no one should any longer doubt its value for the Icelandic economy. It works in Iceland just as it does everywhere else. The Central Bank responded to imminent inflationary pressure by raising its interest rates in 1998 and still further in 1999 and 2000. The interest rate increase served to reduce excess demand in the economy and the ISK exchange rate rose, thus slowing increases to the consumer price index (CPI) in an overheated economy. Early in 2000 the fluctuation bands for the króna were widened, in part because the previous limits were then felt to be restraining the rising exchange rate, which was regarded as necessary to counter inflationary pressure. The exchange rate peaked in the spring of 2000, when it was just over 12% higher than at present. Market expectations changed in the spring of 2000, and the exchange rate began a downward trend. There are no doubt various explanations as to why this occurred but probably the major factors were concern at a sizeable current account deficit and the resulting enormous need for foreign financing, together with Icelandic investments in foreign securities during that same year, not least by pension funds. The downward exchange rate slide lasted until late November 2001. Several times during the period from mid-2000 until well into 2001, the Central Bank intervened in the currency market in an attempt to prevent a further decrease in the exchange rate.
We must allow innovation and the adoption of new technologies – to harness their benefits while managing their risks. We must step up our efforts and cooperation to combat the growing threat of cyber risk. A common theme emerges when we look back as well as look forward. The choice is not between light regulation and hard regulation, or between less regulation and more regulation. What we must collectively seek is smart regulation – regulation that achieves resilience with efficiency, stability with growth, safety with innovation. We will then have a financial industry that is systemically sound and also serves the needs of the economy and society. It is a vision worth working for, together. Thank you. 1 Ollivaud & Turner, “The effect of the global financial crisis on OECD potential output”, OECD Journal of  Economic Studies, 2014. 2 8/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  2 See for instance, David Luttrell, Tyler Atkinson, and Harvey Rosenblum, “Assessing the costs and  consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis and its aftermath”, Dallas Federal Reserve, September 2013; and US Government Accountability Office “Financial regulatory reform: financial crisis losses and potential impact of the Dodd-Frank Act”, January 2013. 3 FSB, “Report on implementation and effects of G20 reforms”, August 2016. 4 Thomson Reuters, “Cost of Compliance 2016” 5 Daniel Tarullo, “Departing Thoughts”, 4 April 2017. 6 William Dudley, “Principles for Financial Regulatory Reform”, 7 April 2017. 7 Christopher Giancarlo, “CFTC: A New Direction Forward”, 15 March 2017.

Small banks are trimming product lines and pulling back from certain customer segments. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have expressed concerns that global banks have been reducing their activities in these markets as they review their business models in light of the new regulatory environment. The FSB is keeping a close watch on this. We have rightly focused our regulatory efforts to minimise the risk of another financial crisis. But we must continually ensure that we do so without minimising economic growth and opportunity. Fine-tuning regulation We must be careful to avoid “pendulum swings” in regulation that could undermine the gains in financial stability that we have achieved, not to mention prolong and add to the uncertainties facing the financial industry. That regulations have imposed costs on the economy is in itself not sufficient reason to unwind them. 3/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  These costs have to be weighed against the benefits of a more stable financial system to support sustainable economic growth. De-regulation has its own costs. Having said that, some fine-tuning may be necessary to reduce the unintended effects of reforms while preserving their benefits. Regulatory policy must continually seek the fine line between discouraging excessive risktaking and encouraging innovation. We should not be afraid to adjust and fine-tune where necessary. As Dan Tarullo, former governor of the Federal Reserve Board, says with respect to the Dodd-Frank Act and other regulations in the US, “some recalibrations and reconsiderations will be warranted on the basis of experience."
The flow of corporate euro bond and equity issuance has grown significantly, though it is important to keep this in proportion: the stock of issuance outstanding in both cases is still - by some margin - lower than the US. (Domestic debt securities in the euro area, taking governments and corporates together, amount to the equivalent of around $ trillion, compared with some $ trillion in the US. And the equity market capitalisation of companies in the euro area amounts to the equivalent of around $ trillion, compared with some $ trillion in the US.) Since the launch of the euro, the focus of risk assessment in the corporate debt market has shifted from currency risk towards credit and liquidity risk. A growing number of companies in the euro area have been seeking external credit ratings. And an equity culture is beginning to take root in the euro area, despite the volatility in TMT stocks over the past two years. In Europe as a whole, for example, there were over 17,000 M&A transactions with a combined value equivalent to $ trillion last year. The second change concerns the integration of euro trading and settlement. Trading has increased in most euro markets, and dealing spreads have narrowed. Electronic trading and communication  2  BIS Review 11/2001  networks have greatly increased the reach of traditional financial markets, while allowing new providers to enter at relatively low cost.

David Clementi: The City and the Euro: innovation and excellence Speech by Mr David Clementi, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the City Seminar on 'London into the 21st Century' at the Palace Hotel, Tokyo on 13 February 2001. *  *  *  Introduction The City of London is, and always has been, a centre of innovation and excellence. I want to talk to you today about the City's role in the euro markets as an example of how London proposes to maintain its standing and reputation for innovation and excellence in the 21st century. For me, it is a great pleasure to be able to talk to you about this here in Tokyo. There are historic links between Tokyo and the City of London, and I am glad that these links are continuing to flourish. We welcome the fact that so many important Japanese financial institutions are represented in London; and, of course, that UK-based financial institutions have operations here in Tokyo. It is not surprising that there are such strong links between Tokyo and the City of London, because London is one of the three global financial centres, alongside Tokyo itself and New York. Tokyo and New York are global centres because of their large domestic markets. Unlike Tokyo and New York, London's primary focus is international. London is much the largest international financial centre in Europe. Historically, London developed as a financial centre because of the international role of the pound sterling.
Trichet: It is of key importance that the ECB’s independence is guaranteed by an international treaty and not just by national law. National laws can be adopted, but they can also be overturned again. FOCUS: Nevertheless, time and again the heads of state of some countries try to pressure the ECB into decisions – usually the lowering of interest rates. Trichet: I remember well that in 2004, shortly after I took office, the then German, French and Italian heads of state or government made public remarks to the effect that the ECB should reduce interest rates. We didn’t do it. FOCUS: Now, in a reversal of roles, the ECB must put pressure on many European governments. National deficits have increased so drastically as a result of the financial crisis that all EU Member States are violating the debt ceiling put in place by the Maastricht Treaty. Trichet: The Stability and Growth Pact is a fundamental economic pillar of Economic and Monetary Union. We will always call upon national governments to comply with it. FOCUS: Greece is currently brazenly violating the 3% debt limit, with its budget deficit standing at 13%. Is Greece showing you a lack of respect? Trichet: Greece has not respected the Stability and Growth Pact. Not only Greece, but also other countries – that goes without saying – must do everything they can to put their national finances in order, bringing them fully into line with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact.

BIS Review 7/2010  3  FOCUS: This problem will become even bigger if other countries – such as Bulgaria or Romania – introduce the euro. Trichet: Other European Union countries are indeed committed to joining the euro area. But only when the time is right. As you know, there are strict criteria governing the introduction of the euro, and these must be met in full. And they have to be met not just at a particular moment in time, but on a sustainable basis. The ECB is and will remain extremely vigilant in this respect. FOCUS: But what if new member countries doctor their figures – as Greece did – and trick their way into the euro area? Trichet: Let me be very clear on this. Never again will we accept budget figures that do not reflect the facts. Appropriate auditing must always be possible. As early as next month the European Commission will make proposals that will dramatically improve the relevant framework. This is absolutely critical. FOCUS: Your job and the crisis are both very demanding. Do you have the opportunity at all to see colleagues outside of work? Trichet: Yes, certainly. And that’s important, too, as the high level of mutual trust that exists within the ECB, between the members of the Executive Board and the Governing Council, is in my view absolutely fundamental. FOCUS: Is Frankfurt a good location for meetings outside of your official schedule? Trichet: I think so.
A deterioration in terms of trade then means that the price of cars falls relative to the price of wine in a common currency. In  2  BIS Review 75/2001  order to be able to sell more cars with a view to buying an unchanged quantity of wine and thereby leave the balance on current account unchanged, the country’s real exchange rate has to depreciate. Productivity growth. Suppose instead that the country becomes more efficient at manufacturing cars. This can lead to better quality cars for a given input of resources and a given price in the domestic currency. The cars can then command a higher price in the world market and the real exchange rate can appreciate. In practice, high productivity growth tends to be associated with a higher potential GDP growth rate. In a country where growth is higher than in the rest of the world, the real exchange rate can therefore be expected to show an appreciating trend. However, the relationship between productivity growth and the exchange rate is not stable. Economic theory is not clear cut on this point some lines of reasoning could lead to the opposite conclusion. An additional factor that is closely related to the real exchange rate is the balance on current account. A succession of current-account deficits leads to growing external debt and rising interest payments. The real exchange rate must then depreciate if the country is to achieve enough additional exports to finance the interest payments.

The growth in the sukuk market also reflects the commitment and combined efforts of the Malaysian government and regulators. There is a clear articulation of the vision and policies to drive the local Islamic capital market. This is reinforced by the implementation of a strong legal, regulatory and tax framework. Bank Negara Malaysia and the Securities Commission have worked closely on a sequence of vital blueprints: the 10-year Financial Sector Master Plan, the 10-year Capital Market Master Plan and the Islamic securities guidelines. The government has reaffirmed all these plans and initiatives with the announcement of a range of tax measures in the 2006 budget. Another important aspect of the development of the sukuk market is the development of the other key components of the Islamic financial system, the money market, banking, and takaful sectors. The various components are able to meet the different requirements of the economy including the differentiated tenor for which the funds are required. This includes providing stable long-term funds for large investments and development projects. These would allow for a balanced allocation of financial and economic resources within the economy, diversifying the risks through the Islamic financial system, and enhancing its flexibilities to adjust, thus strengthening its resilience. As Malaysia moves to a more liberalised and globalised Islamic capital market, the role of the industry in advancing the Islamic financial system becomes increasingly important. The role of the industry has been important in spearheading product innovation, branding, profiling, promotion and marketing of the Islamic capital market products and services.
6 See Donald Kohn and Brian Sack, Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis, preliminary discussion draft  presented at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings and Yale School of Management Program on Financial Stability event, Responding to the Global Financial Crisis: What We Did and Why We Did It, Washington, D.C., September 11–12, 2018. 7 Possible sources to which this lament has been attributed are catalogued here, although its actual provenance  is not known. 8 As part of our analysis of what went wrong in our forecasting before the Great Recession, researchers at the  Federal Reserve and European Central Bank jointly looked at various methods of more directly including highfrequency fluctuations in our forecasting models. The results from this research are reported in Luci Alessi, Eric Ghysels, Luca Onorante, Richard Peach, and Simon Potter, Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, number 680, July 2014. 9 See survey questions and results to the Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Markets Participants, Federal  Reserve Bank of New York. 10 Of course, the NBER didn’t actually declare the start of the recession until late November 2008, nearly a year  after it officially began. 11 Estrella and Mishkin’s original paper, updates, related research, and current recession probabilities implied by  the term spread are available on the New York Fed’s Research website.

This brings me to the fundamental question of why a particular pattern of asset price moves tends to precede recessions. Let's suppose for now we have estimated and evaluated the best possible model to incorporate the statistical implications of these asset price patterns on recession probabilities and of the depth of a recession based on the available data. Is the model showing a causal relationship or is it just a predictive relationship with a different causal factor driving both asset prices and the real economy? And if the latter, what are the causal factors? This is a different question than the one we were debating in our internal discussions in 19992000 and 2006-2007. We spent much of that time arguing about whether structural change, particularly lower compensation for interest rate risk, meant that asset price indicators were less relevant than before. An alternative approach would be to ask, if the probability of recession is elevated, what might be causing this phenomenon? And then ask the complementary question: If the probability of recession is unusually low, what might be causing that phenomenon? In this latter case, given the asymmetry in loss between elevated recession probabilities and elevated 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  expansion probabilities, a very helpful follow-up question would have been whether beliefs in central banks contributing to the economic stability of the Great Moderation had made us too complacent about recession risks. Tetlock emphasizes the importance of post-mortems once outcomes are known.
It is our task to ensure that the temporary effects remain temporary and do not become entrenched. Do we only focus on inflation? Another question that has arisen in the recent debate is to what extent the Riksbank should take production and employment into consideration. Let me first say that when it comes to the relation between low and stable inflation and good growth, one does not exclude the other. The actual purpose of the inflation target is to provide the conditions for good economic growth that is sustainable in the long term. Furthermore, the Riksbank shall also give some consideration to developments in production and employment in the individual interest rate decisions, as long as it appears possible to attain the inflation target. Monetary policy is flexible. We are no “inflation nutters” as my British colleague Mervyn King has put it. The Riksbank cannot stabilise inflation at 2 per cent all of the time. Sudden increases in oil, food, clothing or any other kind of prices can push up inflation. Our interest rate policy is then designed so that inflation can be expected to be back on target within a couple of years, not next week. The fact that it may take some time before inflation is back at 2 per cent provides some scope to take into account production and employment. The Riksbank thus has some scope to give consideration to developments in economic activity. This is something we actually do.

We are six different individuals on the Executive Board. We have different backgrounds and different perspectives. Sometimes this leads to our assessments differing, even if we work towards the same objective. It applies in particular to very uncertain situations like the present one. But the whole idea of having an Executive Board is that disagreement is permitted. Different approaches and opinions enrich the discussions and hopefully lead to better decisions. BIS Review 115/2008  5  My own assessment So how did I reason at the most recent meeting, when I voted for another increase of a quarter percentage point? Well, to begin with it is important to put an individual decision in the right perspective. Monetary policy acts with a time lag and what affects inflation a couple of years ahead is a series of interest rate decisions rather than an individual interest rate increase, or cut, for that matter. My decision in September was therefore closely connected to both the interest rate policy we have conducted over the past few years and the interest rate path I expected to see in the future. A new phase We have experienced a long period of low inflation and high growth from a global perspective, but we have now entered a new phase. In developed economies like the United States and the euro area growth is falling, while it remains high in emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil.
The use of permanent on-site supervision, the link between off-site supervision and on-site inspections or the powers of the supervisory authority (if any) in relation to accounting regulations, are simply some examples. Differences between national supervisors also exist regarding the availability of data. To give you an example, Central Credit Registers – which in our experience are a highly valuable source of information for prudential supervision purposes – are not yet available in all jurisdictions. The EBA has played a very important role by improving cooperation between national supervisors and promoting supervisory convergence. But these improvements fall short of the needs of an effectively unified supervisory system. Substantial and swift progress in this field is therefore needed. Let me just finish by making a general comment. It is obvious that the creation of a banking union poses enormous challenges for Europe that will require strong political support and effective cooperation among all authorities involved. The good news is that if we look at the process of European integration from a historical perspective, we realise that this is not the first time that the way forward has been highly complex. And, past experience has regularly shown that the response has always been to deepen integration and increase the transfer of national powers to the Union as the best – and possibly only – way to preserve all the achievements made so far. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Thomas Jordan: Swiss monetary policy and provisions Introductory remarks by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the end-of-year media news conference, Zurich, 10 December 2009. *  *  *  Introduction Tension in the global financial markets began to abate this spring, and has continued to do so ever since – though despite all the talk of recovery, they are still far below their pre-crisis levels. Whereas initial price rises were mostly corrections of previous excessive falls, markets are currently being driven mainly by the improving economic outlook, by companies’ predominantly positive earnings reports and by expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. However, there is still considerable uncertainty in the financial markets. In the course of the crisis the Swiss National Bank aggressively relaxed its monetary restraints, sometimes treading new paths in the implementation of monetary policy. I shall now briefly summarise the instruments that we used in connection with the financial crisis, highlighting their effects on the SNB’s balance sheet. The risks that exist in the SNB’s balance sheet or that the SNB could potentially be required to take onto the balance sheet demonstrate the importance of strengthening our equity capital. I shall therefore, as already indicated by the Chairman of the Governing Board, Jean-Pierre Roth, briefly explain to you the new regulations governing our policy on provisions. One of these monetary policy crisis measures is the SNB’s stabilisation fund (StabFund), which I shall deal with later.