samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For instance, international developments may be weaker than expected if the US economy slows down more suddenly than expected. With regard to economic activity in Sweden, we instead see a risk that we are underestimating domestic demand. The way energy prices will develop in future is another genuinely uncertain factor in our forecasts. Let me finally, before I summarise what I have already said, say a few words about our views on fiscal policy. As I mentioned at the beginning, the economic policy regime we have had in Sweden over the past decade has functioned well. It has created a stability in the economy that we have not experienced in decades. An absolute condition for this regime has been that fiscal policy is conducted in a way that is compatible with long-term sustainable public finances. This condition would certainly appear to be met. Having said that, one may observe that the formulation of fiscal policy in the short term affects supply and demand, employment and inflation. It thereby becomes a factor that needs to be taken into consideration when formulating monetary policy (Figure 14). The new budget entails a slightly more expansionary fiscal policy and thereby slightly stronger consumer demand than we had earlier assumed. However, above all the budget contained measures aimed at improving the labour market. In qualitative terms it appears reasonable to assume that these measures will increase the labour supply and gradually also employment.

This builds on the foundations of a new responsible global financial system that are being put in place. The combination of robust international standards and greater trust as a consequence of transparent implementation and intensive supervisory cooperation can create a system of enhanced equivalence and mutual deference. Such an approach would allow capital to move more freely, efficiently and sustainably between jurisdictions. With robust standards consistently applied, wholesale financial services could be brought more fully into trade agreements, keeping the global financial system open and resilient, and supporting greater trade, investment and innovation. This high road leads to more jobs, higher sustainable growth, and better risk management across the G20. Working Together to Take Full Advantage The high road can be followed if my third priority – taking full advantage of the progress made – is pursued. In this regard, it is important not just to recognise progress made but how it has been made. The FSB has succeeded by emphasising collaboration, consensus and openness. Its strength lies in its members who bring authority, expertise and shared objectives. The FSB is not a treaty-based organisation, so its standards do not have direct force in any member jurisdiction. Decisions are ultimately matters for national authorities who – acting out of enlightened selfinterest and in recognition of the benefits of a resilient and open global financial system – guide and discipline the reform process.
But which options will we have as regards exchange rate policy when the Monetary Union has come into existence? Theoretically the options are: 1) the current system; 2) a floating exchange rate; 3) a unilateral link with the euro; 4) a bilateral link with the euro; BIS Review 42/1998  -9-  and 5) introducing the euro as legal tender in Iceland. This list does not include membership of the Monetary Union, as that is only available to members of the European Union. Three factors need to be considered when weighing these options: first, the success they will produce in terms of low inflation and economic stability; second, how likely are they to narrow interest rate differentials vis-à-vis abroad; and, third, the flexibility they offer in case of external shocks, whether positive or negative. The current arrangement calls for the maintenance of a trade-weighted exchange rate index within 6 percent on either side of a central rate. The arrival of the euro will not prevent the continuation of this arrangement. The euro would be assigned a weight in the currency basket consistent with the Monetary Union members’ share of Iceland’s external trade. This approach will, however, not yield any progress towards narrowing interest rate differentials vis-à-vis those abroad beyond the growing credibility that economic stability will achieve on its own in due course.

Increase in consumption and private investments, owing to the improved financing terms, confidence and private sector balance sheets, was, and is expected to continue to be, the main driver of the economy’s performance. On the other hand, the public sector has been and remains committed in the path to fiscal consolidation, whereas the external environment continues to face problems and pose challenges to the increase of Albanian exports. In the short run, the increase in consumption and private investments is sufficient to generate initial triggers for economic growth, but the long-term growth of the Albanian economy should rely more on the improvement of its competitive profile and growth of exports. Therefore, we deem that the acceleration of structural reforms has a unique role in supporting economic growth. Inflation continued to stand below our target. Internal inflationary pressures have been upward, but the fall in prices in global markets decelerated the return of inflation to target at home. The monetary policy stance of the Bank of Albania has become strongly accommodative. This policy stance aims at reducing the financing costs of the private sector, in order to sustain the return of the economy to equilibrium and of inflation to target, in the medium-term horizon. In our view, the indicators of economic activity and inflation are performing in the right direction; however, the sustainable accomplishment of targets will need time and will imply keeping low interest rates for some quarters ahead. Overall, the main indicators in banking system activity improved.
The fiscal policy applied during the three first quarters of the year materialised in the annual fall of public spending for this period, whereas income growth was low and budget deficit was in check. On the other hand, the fourth quarter of 2012 and year 2013 are expected to be characterised by upward fiscal spending and budget deficit. This fiscal policy increases the macroeconomic stimulus in the short run; however, it should be sensitive to the need for medium and long-term stability of the public debt. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Foreign demand was the main driver of economic activity in the third quarter of the year. Latest foreign trade data confirm the same trend for the successive period. Thus, in October, the trade deficit continued the corrective trend, narrowing down to 10.3% in annual terms. Its performance has reflected mainly the good performance of exports, which maintained positive rates of their annual growth, 12.0% in this month. Imports have also contributed to narrowing the trade deficit, contacting 2.3% in annual terms, in this month. The analysis of monetary indicators points to low monetary pressures on prices. Higher money supply, the M3 aggregate, continued to decelerate in October, settling at 6.2%. In particular, lending to the private sector slowed down significantly. Annual credit growth for the private sector was 2.4% in October, reaching its all-time low. To a large extent, it is influenced by the low demand of households and business for loans, as reflected by the performance of consumption and private investments.

Lars Nyberg: The framework of modern central banking Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Conference on Reforming the State Bank of Vietnam, Hanoi, 21 March 2006. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to this conference on reforming the State Bank of Vietnam. I imagine that one reason why I have been invited here is that the central bank I represent, Sveriges Riksbank in Sweden, just over a decade ago was in a situation which resembles the one the State Bank of Vietnam is experiencing now. At that time we had reached a situation where there were strong reasons – if not imperative ones – for reconsidering the way in which we used to think about monetary policy. It became clear that a reform of monetary policy and its framework was both desirable and necessary. Of course, Sweden is by no means the only country where monetary policy has undergone major changes in recent times. The view of how best to conduct monetary policy has changed fairly radically over the past twenty years and this has been reflected in a more or less worldwide reform process. What I hope to be able to contribute here today – as an introduction to the discussions – is to provide an overall picture of the ideas that formed the basis for this process and to describe what are today considered to be the guiding principles for a modern central bank, according to established research and practical experiences.
Denny H Kalyalya: Zambian financial sector – responding to the needs of business Speech by Dr Denny H Kalyalya, Deputy Governor-Operations of the Bank of Zambia; at the opening of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Solwezi Branch, Solwezi, 10 December 2008. *  *  *  The Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry, Hon. Felix Mutati The Minister, North-Western Province, Hon. Joseph Mulyata The Chairman of the Board of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia, Mr. George Sokota His Worship the mayor of Solwezi The Managing Director of Standard Chartered Bank, Mrs. Mizinga Melu Distinguished guests Members of the press Ladies and Gentlemen I am pleased to be here at the official opening of the new Solwezi Branch of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited. Ladies and Gentlemen, recent times have shown a proliferation of commercial bank branches in areas which had previously been considered unattractive for business. Rural areas had even experienced closures where banks felt that they were unable to establish a case for business. The economic environment that the Government created through the reforms instituted in the early 1990’s has given new confidence to investors and has provided an opportunity for businesses to grow, thereby attracting banks to the areas which were deprived of basic financial services. The opening of this branch today, in a town which has attracted major investments, is a demonstration that the financial sector is indeed, now responding to the needs of business.

The world’s financial markets have been plunged into turmoil which some say is unprecedented, or at least comparable to the levels experienced in the most severe financial crises of the last century. Notwithstanding this, our financial system has demonstrated a level of stability which to an extent has been derived from the strong capital positions that have characterised the Zambian banking industry in the past few years. However, this turbulence has already resulted in a reduction in projected global economic growth and a decline in demand for Africa’s exports. Notwithstanding this, we remain confident that the banking sector will continue to show resilience and expansion through branch networks, thereby acting as a channel through which services will be extended to the financially excluded. Ladies and Gentlemen, a recent survey established that fewer than 15% of the Zambian adult population have access to the services provided by commercial banks. The key reasons for this low level of access were cited as the distance that needs to be overcome in order to access the services and the cost of these services. It is therefore a welcome development that commercial banks have responded to these challenges by reaching out through new branches. However, banks need to be mindful of the fact that the many of our people who need these services most of all are not able to bear the heavy charges that are sometimes levied, and the goal of inclusion will stand to be compromised if this matter is not addressed.
But these effects are longer-lived in a secular stagnation world. It is quite possible that we are in some combination of both worlds. But I think it is important, especially when thinking about policy, to distinguish the different forces that drive these respective stories about the world. The UK picture Which brings me to the UK. When I joined the MPC over two years ago, the data seemed to point quite firmly towards the healing story. The UK was experiencing a burst of growth, driven by the return of credit and confidence and pent-up demand from the recession and slow recovery. Many commentators were arguing that the Bank was in danger of getting behind the curve; these arguments grew louder as unemployment fell at its fastest rate for 40 years. The Bank’s forecasts two years ago suggested that growth would fall back a touch, but only a touch, to around its pre-crisis average of 0.7% per quarter. Our forecast for growth in 2014,15,16 was 3.4%, 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. The reality has confirmed part but only part of that story. Over the course of 2014 and 2015 growth drifted down, slowly but consistently and by more than forecast. The economy grew at around 2% annualised in the last quarter of 2015 – around 0.7 percentage points lower than the February 2014 forecast; growth in 2015 was 0.2 percentage points lower. The Bank’s most recent forecast is for growth to pick up slowly over the next few years to 2.5%.

Change is, I believe, inevitable. The question is only whether we can think our way through to a better outcome before the next generation is damaged by a future and bigger crisis. This crisis has already left a legacy of debt to the next generation. We must not leave them the legacy of a fragile banking system too. I have explained the principles on which a successful reform of the system should rest. It is a program that will take many years, if not decades. But, as Bagehot concluded in Lombard Street, “I have written in vain if I require to say now that the problem is delicate, that the solution is varying and difficult, and that the result is inestimable to us all.” References Admati, A.R., DeMarzo, P.M., Hellwig, M.F., and Pfleiderer, P (2010), “Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensiv” Stanford Business School, mimeo. Arrow, K.J. (1951), “An extension of the basic theorems of classical welfare economics”, In Proceedings of the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, ed. J. Neyman, Berkeley: University of California Press, 507–32. Arrow, K.J. and Debreu, G. (1954) “Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy”, Econometrica 22, 265–90. Bagehot, W. (1873), “Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market”, Wiley & Sons, (reprinted 1999).
I am convinced that a flexible mix between monetary and fiscal policies, plus the diversified structure of production and exports, did allow the economy to avoid contraction and build on greater external stability. With the improved environment for growth that I have just noted, I am more comfortable today than last year to talk about an economic recovery. My optimism, however, remains guarded. Because on this road to recovery, there are still many risks. Such risks, if not managed well, could undermine the sustainability of the recovery process. Let me first talk about the macroeconomy and our view for 2002. Then I will describe the challenges ahead as well as our thoughts on how to manage them. First, the economic recovery. What do the recent economic numbers tell us? In January, the economy showed signs of continued expansion despite the sluggish global conditions, thanks largely to the momentum in domestic demand. A number of indicators suggested that the economic conditions had improved somewhat from the recent months. For instance, –  Consumption and investment continued to improve in January. In particular, the Private Investment Index (PII) continued to increase. A significant expansion was seen in construction, following the spur in housing demand and construction activities. BIS Review 16/2002  1  –  It looks like this good news on the domestic demand front warrants a significant increase in the January Business Sentiment Index (BSI) and the index looking 3 months ahead.

If we could not resolve the debt problem in a timely manner and adopt new work practices, it will be next to impossible to compete successfully in the world market. The Bank of Thailand and the Government are alert to this challenge. And the Government has already initiated the process of overhaul. One notable attempt at debt restructuring is the establishment of the Thai Asset Management Corporation (TAMC). The entity was set up to reduce distressed assets in the banking system through centralization of NPLs' management. This should allow banks to resume their normal function and new lending. New lending is needed to provide the working capital to support corporate restructuring as well as business expansion. This way, our energy will be channeled toward more productive enterprises. And, with the authority to liquidate and rehabilitate businesses through swift legal procedures, the TAMC is unique in its unprecedented power. Next, given that a substantial share of distressed assets remains outside the purview of the TAMC, I see the need to expedite the process of corporate debt restructuring which requires a speedy passage of the reformed bankruptcy law. This action will be testimony to the sincere effort that we in the authorities can make for the benefit of our future generations. Insofar as the banking sector is concerned, the Bank of Thailand regards better enforcement of the banking and financial institution regulations as a priority. This is an area that the Bank of Thailand takes leadership role to strengthen the soundness and efficiency of the financial institutions.
This is the approach that has always been pursued by the Basel Committee. It comprises: (i) a common and consistent global baseline of standards and principles to provide a level-playing field; (ii) the ability of member jurisdictions to apply additional and more prudent measures to help mitigate specific areas of risks and vulnerabilities related to their banking systems; and (iii) the possibility for them to implement the proportionality principle in their domestic regulatory and supervisory frameworks, in such a way that neither financial stability nor the safety of financial institutions is undermined. 3/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

Many of these Middle Eastern banks service Islamic financing needs. Singapore welcomes more banks from the Middle East to set up here and to partner us in the growth of our financial centre. Beyond Middle Eastern banks, we have also seen international banks such as Citigroup and Standard Chartered introduce Islamic finance and murabaha products from Singapore. More financial institutions are using Singapore as a launch pad for innovative new Islamic products. Singapore will continue to co-operate with market participants and other countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE on the development of Islamic finance. Integration of Awqaf into Islamic finance Let me now turn to waqf. Historically, the revenue generated in waqf has been applied to traditional uses like maintenance of religious buildings. But this is changing. Proceeds from the estates are now used to contribute more widely to society. Rules governing the administration of waqf have become increasingly progressive. In Kuwait and Qatar, revenue from waqf has been used to build hospitals, universities and commercial and office complexes. Townships have even been built in Morocco. Such innovative financial uses help to unlock the economic potential of waqf. In Singapore, we have the example of an integrated mixed-development at Bencoolen Street, comprising a mosque, service apartments and a commercial complex. This was made possible through the innovative financing solution provided by the launch of the musyarakah bond. MUIS, which administers a number of waqf, has also made use of the proceeds to fund Islamic education.
UK household indebtedness is high (a)(b)(c)(d) by historical standards Household debt to income ratio (of which mortgages)  Probability  Household debt to income ratio (excluding mortgages)  Total household debt to income ratio  Per cent of income 160 140  120 100 80 60  Annual GDP Growth  40 20 0 1987 87  Sources: ONS and Bank of England. (a) Distribution in each quarter is derived from quantile regressions of Real GDP growth on composite measures of real economy leverage and asset prices. Methodology follows quite closely that of Adrian et al (2016), ‘Vulnerable Growth’. 91  95  99  03  07  11  15  Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. (a) Total household debt to income ratio is calculated as gross debt as a percentage of a four-quarter moving sum of gross disposable income of the UK household and non-profit sector. Includes all liabilities of the household sector except for unfunded pension liabilities and financial derivatives of the non-profit sector. (b) Mortgage debt to income is calculated as total debt secured on dwellings as a percentage of a four-quarter moving sum of disposable income. (c) Non-mortgage debt is the residual of mortgage debt subtracted from total debt. (d) The household disposable income series is adjusted for FISIM and changes in pension entitlements. 18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  18  Chart 7. UK house price to household income (a)(b) ratio House price to household income  Chart 8.

We have also lengthened the supporting period and increased the IMF delinked portion, from 20% to 30% this year with a view to increasing it to 40% in 2014, subject to review should conditions warrant. In serving as a regional safety net, such arrangements contribute to further development of the regional financial markets by providing a credible liquidity firewall, both for crisis resolution and crisis prevention, to anchor investors’ confidence. It is only with  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  enough confidence that we can attract the participation of foreign investors into our markets for the sustainable developments of our economies and region. I look forward to an even greater success in the next 10 years. Thank you for your kind attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3