samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Access to credit enhances welfare but also exposes the borrower to the scrutiny and discretion of creditors. A good example of how this works is provided by the Swedish economy. From the mid 1970s, problems with government finances led to external borrowing, which mitigated the effect on interest rates. But debt accumulated and an acceleration of this trend in the early 1990s led to an acute loss of confidence: interest rates shot up and after a time the krona fell. Besides illustrating how a country can be hit if its economy is not managed properly or if problems arise from other causes, this example shows that the imbalances may be generated gradually, so that timely signals can be an advantage. Perhaps prompter warnings would have put a stop to the economic mismanagement at an earlier stage. Something may thus be gained from the market sending clear signals without delay. But the situation should not be idealised. The functioning of financial markets is by no means perfect. Real economic problems can build up without attracting attention and when they are detected, the financial unrest is liable to spread to other countries for no apparent reason. The financial market’s reaction may also be out of proportion to the underlying imbalance. This brings me to the next type of problem. Financial instability in a global market Just as in any other market, financial market prices are basically a function of supply and demand.

Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: The progress of migration to SEPA Keynote address by Mrs Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the British Bankers’ Association, 7th Annual Payments Conference, London, 23 November 2009. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to speak at the British Bankers' Association on the occasion of the 7th Annual Payments Conference. 140 years ago, on Monday 22 November 1869, one of the world’s fastest, most technically advanced and also most beautiful merchant sailing ships was launched. Designed to be the first ship to bring home the new season’s tea from China to London, the “Cutty Sark” plied the oceans for decades. The ship is still preserved today, and you can marvel at her in Greenwich, just 20 minutes from here. On Monday 2 November 2009, just three weeks ago, the SEPA Direct Debit (SDD) was launched. I will not dare to speculate as to whether it is the world’s fastest, most technically advanced and most beautiful Direct Debit scheme, but the advent of a European direct debit scheme provides a truly new payment service at the European level. We would like to congratulate all those who have taken part in its development, particularly the EPC for their valuable contribution to this success. The SDD complements the SEPA Credit Transfer, which was launched in January 2008. With these two payment products launched, and with the Payment Services Directive (PSD) now in force, SEPA is well in place. However, not yet completed.
Stefan Ingves: Can regional financial sector assessments provide additional values to the EU countries? Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a seminar arranged by the National Bank of Belgium, Brussels, 13 June 2006. *  *  *  What is needed for financial stability? I am honoured that you have invited me to speak tonight, setting the scene for tomorrow’s seminar. I am in the enviable position of having inside knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of the IMFFSAP framework and at the same time in my new position being free to think ahead without necessarily being mindful of internal IMF policies on every detail. That said, although I have moved from the IMF I feel strongly about the financial stability assessments, such as the FSAPs, and I sincerely think that they can make a difference. My message to you today could be summarised as follows: •  The main value of the FSAPs so far conducted is that they link together the various parts of national financial systems; identifying strengths, weaknesses and vulnerabilities. •  However, the national focus becomes increasingly irrelevant due to the rapid development of cross-border establishments and other financial interlinkages. Hence, we need a multilateral approach, such as a regional one. •  The EU-area is well suited to perform regional financial stability assessments since crossborder integration has come a long way in Europe. In fact, I believe that the EU countries should set up a system to conduct their own regional self-assessments.

For instance, while a fixed-exchange rate regime in certain circumstances tends to support financial stability in a country (or group of countries – to refer to the European context) there might be situations in which such a system could have the opposite effect. To underpin financial stability, economic developments should be sustainable, transparent and predictable. This also applies to political decisions, which affect the financial system directly or indirectly. Completing the circle and reverting to my first observations on the increased global linkages, most countries’ financial systems are influenced by developments outside the domestic economy. Linkages come through different channels: macro economic events having international repercussions, for instance through international markets, or “micro events” such as via banks’ cross-border affiliates. BIS Review 52/2006  1  The FSAP – an attempt to tie together the loose ends Given the various pieces needed to shape and maintain a stable and efficient financial system we need a bird’s-eye view to see that they are all in place and that they do not counteract one another. The approach should also identify weak spots from which the financial system potentially might be destabilised. This need for a bird’s-eye view resulted in the creation of the FSAP. The FSAP is intended to cover the pieces I just mentioned – standards, preconditions and institutional setting and the interplay of these factors in the context of the domestic economy.
Judging the cumulative impact of these changes in a comprehensive way that includes an assessment of costs, benefits, and risks is challenging, but seems an important goal for optimal policy design. 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Conclusion A fundamental challenge for effective supervision is that the landscape is constantly evolving and adapting in response to a wide range of regulatory, financial, and technological forces. This type of dynamism is normal and inherently productive for the industry as firms continue to optimize in order to serve customers efficiently and satisfy investors, but it does raise issues that supervisors must consider. As I’ve discussed, one recent type of evolution is the trend toward greater similarity of the largest financial firms in the U.S. In response, supervisors and regulators must continue their focus on taking a broad perspective on supervision and risks. It is not enough to look at individual business lines or products, but we should continue to focus on enterprise risk management that reflects each business and the interdependencies among them. Moreover, supervisors should be dynamic and continue to evolve as the supervised firms do. Finally, supervisors should continue to develop an industrywide, macroprudential perspective to understand the impact of the continuing evolution of the U.S. financial industry.

Research suggests that in a world with multiple capital constraints, e.g., a leverage ratio and a risk-based capital, banks face incentives to do the same thing rather than 7 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  specializing in areas where they each have a natural competitive advantage.7 This type of academic work provides a conceptual framework for understanding how optimizing behavior against multiple constraints might lead banks to pursue similar strategies and become more homogenous over time. Interest Rates A second dominant theme over the post-crisis period has been unconventional monetary policy, both in the U.S. and around the world, which has direct implications for the profitability and returns of U.S. commercial banks. The low rate environment experienced through 2015, for example, constrained bank earnings, particularly net interest income earned through traditional banking activities over this period. More recently, current and expected future returns on equity for large banks have improved, in part reflecting higher interest rates and net interest margins, as well as other factors such as lower tax rates and expectations for a stronger economy. Despite recent improvements, earnings pressures over most of the post-crisis period have pushed banks to reassess business strategies. For example, some banks attempted to enhance returns by building capacity and reach in new businesses; some looked to benefit from scale and scope activities by leveraging existing infrastructure, technology, and processes to offer a broader set of services at lower cost; some looked to reduce risk through greater diversification, and others pulled back from activities outside of their core focus.
Instead, I want to pose this question: Supposing that all countries had free capital movements, freely floating exchange rates, and first-rate macroeconomic policies aimed at internal balance, would everything then be fine, at both the national and global level? I think there are strong indications that it would not be. There are a few reasons for this. First of them is the tendency of exchange rates to move away from equilibrium values for extended periods, with sharp corrections at the end of the process and with excess volatility throughout. The research on this phenomenon is still ongoing, but there are strong indications a number of factors suggest that the process is related at least partly to how asset markets function and how expectations are formed, and would not disappear even if macroeconomic policies were perfect. There will be net capital flows associated with this process, as well as swings in current accounts and effects on domestic financial systems that can ultimately lead to serious financial instability. In a small, open, and increasingly financially integrated economy, the process runs as follows: Domestic interest rates at the longer end of the maturity spectrum tend to become more closely correlated with the global rate, or the rate of the largest trading partner, and less correlated with the domestic policy rate. This means that monetary transmission tends to go increasingly through the exchange rate channel, which is only a problem, however, if the exchange rate behaves badly. Unfortunately, there is copious evidence to suggest that it is a problem.

Ravi Menon: Two problems for FinTech to solve - cross-border payments and ESG data Keynote speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Annual SWIFT International Banking Operations Seminar (SIBOS) 2022, Amsterdam, 10 October 2022. *** Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am grateful to SWIFT for the opportunity to speak to this distinguished gathering of finance and business leaders from across the world. Most of us here have an affiliation to finance or to technology, or more likely to both. Indeed, the extensive application of technology to enhance the design and delivery of financial services has become a defining feature of the last decade – the FinTech phenomenon. FinTech is increasingly pervasive across not just traditional financial institutions but also non-financial players ranging from small start-ups to large technology firms providing financial services. If its benefits are properly harnessed and its risks well managed, FinTech can be a powerful force for good – solving problems and creating opportunity. In keeping with the theme of this conference, I want to focus today on two challenges in financial services where FinTech can potentially play a positive transformative role:  one, cross-border payment and settlement; and two, high quality, trusted ESG data. These two challenges are what I would call foundational issues that need to be addressed before broader progress can be made. Payments is the life blood of the modern economy.
As a central banker responsible for ensuring financial stability and the proper financing of the economy, I welcome this diversification of the sources of financing for the real economy. 3. The impact of new players in the financial intermediation ecosystem is likely to differ Among these new players, tech companies are the most important. The model of these companies is based on the breakdown of the activities of traditional universal banking into a range of distinct core functions, such as payment routing, provision of financing, risk sharing and capital allocation. The impact of these new players on financial intermediation will most likely differ depending on whether one considers start-ups or Bigtechs. The role of start-ups will probably be determined by the following alternative, as they do not have sufficient resources to “supplant” the established players: cooperate or even go under the control of an established player or compete in niche segments, such as crowd-funding, online lending or payments. The impact of Bigtechs on financial intermediation may be very different, as they have substantial financial resources, a strong brand image, a global customer base and privileged access to cutting-edge technologies. 4. Can they nevertheless eliminate bank intermediation, if we take a long term view? This question brings me to my prognosis to conclude my speech.

Dimitar Bogov: When pressures on prices are relieved, we will stimulate economic growth Interview with Mr Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, in “Kapital” weekly magazine, published on 8 November 2012. *  *  *  Bank affairs are always possible In the countries in the region banking affairs have erupted, in connection with criminal activities of some banks in conjunction with politicians. What is the situation in Macedonia? Is everything under control in the banking sector? NBRM controls the banks in terms of their compliance with the regulations, the quality of corporate governance, and assesses the risks that banks undertake in their operations. Banking supervision is a strong prevention against criminal operation. But that does not mean that as anywhere in the world, banking affairs could not take place also in the banking sector in Macedonia. Spasijka Jovanova The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia lowered the forecasts for the economic growth this year to 1 percent and raised the concerns of inflation. The condition when no growth is registered, i.e. there is a downturn, and there is higher inflation, is called stagflation, which is the worst stage of an economic crisis. Is the Macedonian economy in such a stage? I would not agree that the Macedonian economy is entering stagflation. However, there were unusual movements in the world economy.
However, there is some difference between developments in the United States, where growth has remained strong and unemployment is at its lowest level in almost 50 years, and the euro area, where developments have been more subdued. Wages are now rising increasingly rapidly in countries like Germany and the United States and are helping to push up inflation. But despite these basically good prospects, we also see a substantial number of risks regarding developments abroad, which I will come back to at the end of my speech. For some time now, we have been in an economic boom in Sweden. This in turn is partly due to the expansionary monetary policy. Despite a partial slowdown in growth, output is still above its trend level (see Figure 2). It was striking that GDP fell between the second and third quarters of last year, but we believe most of this has to do with temporary factors, including the fact that household consumption of cars was brought forward to quarter 2 due to amended tax rules, which pushed down car sales in quarter 3. 2 [13]  Figure 2. Economic activity still strong in Sweden High output level 6  High pressure on the labour market 6  GDP gap  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  -6  -8  01  04  07  10  13  16  19  -8  Note. Left-hand graph.

Furthermore, the seasonal effect of domestic agriculture production supply was stronger this year, leading to further reduction of food items annual inflation. During 2011, consumer prices in Albania were subject to supply shocks, materialised in high imported prices. This effect was more moderate during July–August and, in the absence of sudden shocks, it is expected to subdue even further in the months ahead. Moreover, second-round effects are contained, under the influence of controlled expectations of economic agents on inflation. The domestic economic setting produced controlled inflationary pressures. Aggregate demand slowdown led to spare capacities of production factors and controlled long-term inflationary pressures on the economy. Therefore, core inflation was 2.9% in July, showing a downward trend, and was close to our inflation target. New economic data obtained in September are scarce. Following our earlier analysis and based on new available information, the Bank of Albania deems that the Albanian economy continued to grow during 2011. Economic activity relied primarily on public spending and exports surge, while the private sector demand had a slow positive performance. Consumption and investments were supported by crediting, but their upsurge is conditioned by hesitation to spend. Following the revised budget, the fiscal behaviour during the last two months is characterised by lower spending pace and lower budget deficit increase. Fiscal stimulus was present in the first quarter, while in the following months the fiscal policy was more contained, which is reflected in lower annual deficit increase.
This should not come as a surprise, since it is much easier to sustain a high level of employment protection in an industry if competitors are kept out of its market. Therefore, amendments to employment protection legislation should be considered in relation to the implementation of product market reforms to promote competition. Fostering, promoting competition in product markets will facilitate the implementation of labour market reforms. These arguments suggest that the envisaged policy actions in line with the Lisbon strategy aimed at improving the functioning of labour and product markets – and the review of the institutions that determine their organisation which this reform agenda entails – can be expected to have mutually reinforcing beneficial effects on the performance of the economy. The improvement in labour utilisation in the euro area witnessed in recent years partly reflects the favourable effects of past labour market reforms. However, when looking at the levels of unemployment and labour force participation rates, it is clear that, despite the progress made, further improvements on both of these labour market fronts are possible and urgently needed. 2  See, inter alia, Nicoletti et al. (2000) and Nickell and Nunziata (2001). 3  See Bassanini and Duval (2006). BIS Review 43/2007  5  IV.2. Values, preferences and economic culture  Institutions that are inappropriately designed are thus at least partly responsible for the unsatisfactory performance of the European economy.

But since there is no unique “European Social Model”, I will then explore how differences in economic institutions, reflecting different cultural values and social models, may explain the divergence in the growth performance of European countries. Finally, I will focus on the other important dimension of  BIS Review 43/2007  1  economic performance and a central policy objective: price stability. I will demonstrate the crucial role of the institutional frameworks for central banking and fiscal policy implementation in ensuring the preservation of price stability and the sustainability of economic growth. II. Economic performance, markets, institutions and values: a simple conceptual framework  Before addressing the issues I have raised, it will be useful to define the various concepts more precisely and to specify a simple framework that describes their likely relationships and potential effects. Needless to say, the aim is not to formulate a comprehensive theory but to sketch out a conceptual structure that can help organise our thinking and analysis. This is illustrated in slide 3. The economic performance of a country or economic area will be measured by its trend rate of economic growth and its ability to preserve price stability. These indicators of macroeconomic performance are the aggregate outcome of market mechanisms and forces and of the effects of economic and monetary policies. Economic institutions, as well as other types of institutions (e.g. legal) underpin the functioning of product, labour capital and money markets.
The lawyers may get rich, but will you be in business? • Testing is not a problem -- our organization has good testing and acceptance procedures and we test all the time. Previous internal testing standards probably won’t do the job this time. • Obtaining adequate resources will not be an issue -- our organization has a great technical staff and we can always hire additional resources if it becomes necessary. Good luck. As a bank supervisor, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will do whatever it can to encourage banks to set up and adhere to programs that deal with Year 2000 problems. Our examiners will focus on how well individual banks are doing and will highlight for senior management and directors those instances when progress may be lagging. This oversight will include not only U.S. banks, but also the U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. However, the motivation and determination to cope with the Year 2000 problem must come from within banking organizations rather than from supervisory oversight. Getting the Year 2000 issue right is critical for every organization. Failure to get it right will affect the integrity of the payments system and the performance of the domestic, and maybe even the global, economy. The Federal Reserve is working hard to make certain that our systems will be ready and fully tested. And I am pleased by the high level of central bank coordination on this issue, as the recent release of the Basle Supervisors’ technical paper demonstrates.

The increase may be a way of safeguarding the real economy in the long term A common reaction to the decision to increase the interest rate was that the Riksbank pays too much attention to inflation and too little attention to the real economy. I would like to comment on this claim. One reason for increasing the interest rate was that an increase was needed to prevent the high level of inflation from becoming entrenched. This could happen if the price increases for energy and food begin to spread to other areas. This could ultimately lead to a risk of the Riksbank's ability to hold inflation in check being called into question and of inflation expectations remaining at a consistently high level. This is what happened in the 1970s in many parts of the world, although inflation at that time became entrenched at much higher levels than would be the case today. But even though the levels are much lower today, it could still be relatively costly to get inflation back to the target. It cannot be ruled out that this could require quite a long period with high interest rates and restricted demand. There is thus a risk that conducting too expansionary a policy today would sooner or later give rise to costs in the real economy that, furthermore, could be quite considerable. I do not feel, therefore, that it is correct to say that the increase in the interest rate is an indication that the Riksbank does not care about the real economy.