samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, this is for obvious reasons no simple task and there are no good examples of this from other central banks. Last spring, the Riksbank began work aimed at achieving this objective. One potential result of this work could be a development of the clarification from 1999. A clearer picture of which deviations are allowed would also make it easier to communicate our policy and to assess it in a purposeful manner. At present, policy is often assessed solely on the basis of historical averages for inflation. While this can act as a natural starting point, the discussion should be taken further and include how the outcome of the policy relates to the considerations taken to various  4/7  more transient price fluctuations. Real and financial developments should also be taken into account in contexts where they have affected the policy. I imagine that these are questions to which the Committee will wish to return in future, both as a result of the work conducted within the Riksbank and perhaps also as a result of the external assessment of monetary policy the Committee intends to make. The Riksbank is also holding discussions with external parties on a regular assessment, where a preliminary starting point would be comparisons between the assessments made by the Riksbank and other forecasters in order to provide a better basis for a correct discussion. The economic situation Let me now comment on our current assessment of inflation prospects and our interest rate decision yesterday.

During the spring this year, however, there were signals indicating that a slowdown was on the way. Moreover, in June growth data were released for the first quarter, which were weaker than expected by all economic forecasters. That prompted the Riksbank to revise down its growth forecast for 2005, as well as our outlook for future cost pressures. But we nevertheless stuck to our assessment that most factors – not least the expansionary economic policy – pointed to comparatively firm growth in the period ahead. 5/7  That now seems to have been a correct assessment. The statistics for the first quarter were revised up over the summer and thus were not quite as weak as they first appeared. During the second quarter GDP growth also rose, according to the data we now have. The performance is positive as regards both domestic demand – consumption and investment – and exports. Looking ahead, we expect that domestic demand will be a more important driving force than it has been so far in the cyclical upswing. However, demand is likely to begin to slacken by degrees as a result of ordinary mechanisms that dampen economic activity. One such mechanism is that interest rates rise as resource utilisation and cost pressures pick up. Previously, the forecasts in our main scenario have been produced on the basis of the assumption that the repo rate is constant during the forecast period.
In the light of evaluations made in this respect, annual inflation figures may increase a little more for a temporary period of time in the upcoming months, due to the recent exchange rate movements observed after the fluctuations in financial markets. We foresee that these developments will mostly affect the short term, and the disinflation process will not be interrupted as long as the monetary and fiscal discipline continues in the medium-term. Nevertheless, we have experienced many times that short-term developments might affect longer-term variables via expectations, due to past habits and the short-term perspective in Turkey. As a matter of fact, we observe that short-term developments seem likely to affect the medium-term inflation expectations and pricing behaviors recently. In order to prevent the said short-term developments from creating permanent impacts on pricing behaviors and to maintain consistency between the mediumterm inflation trend and the targets, we have held an extra meeting and increased short-term borrowing interest rates to 15 percent from 13.25 percent. In this respect, the outlook we take as a basis is the one in which a relative slowdown is observed in domestic demand, the increase in unit costs stops and inflation enters a downward trend again in the coming months. In light of information currently available, it can be said that inflation will be above the point target in end-2006. In this framework, we have adopted a policy perspective in which inflation will come close to the target towards the end of 2007.

Despite the significant distance covered in the fight against inflation, price stability has not been achieved yet and there is still a long way to go. Recent inflation developments also confirm this fact. At this point, I would like to summarize the inflation and monetary policy developments of the recent period. The increase in inflation in the first quarter of the year was an expected development, which has been stated in the Bank’s reports since January. In April and May, the increase in inflation was above the expected level due to unforeseen developments in seasonal pricing behaviors. Compared to March, consumer prices increased by 1.34 percent and 1.88 percent in April and May, respectively. As of May, annual inflation became 9.86 percent, which is obviously above the target path. In May, the direct effects of exchange rate movements on inflation started to be observed through the channels of fuel oil, gold and durable goods. During this period, the upward pressure exerted by the  2  BIS Review 68/2006  depreciation in the New Turkish lira on inflation reached 0.5 points. Adding the exogenous movements in gold and oil prices, the total impact amounts to 0.65 point. In other words, some of the direct effects of exchange rate movements on prices became evident in May. However, these effects are expected to be high in June, too.
The near-term impact on resident employment should be mitigated by targeted policy support such as enhanced wage support and rental waivers and rebates. Core inflation should continue on its gradual recovery path, with the 2021 forecast unchanged at 0 to 1%. 3/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  While some increase in import prices is expected, this should be confined to certain noncooked food items. But domestic cost pressures will be muted given the lingering slack in the labour market. The CPI-All Items inflation forecast is revised to 1.0 to 2.0% from 0.5 to 1.5%. The revision takes into account higher-than-expected car prices in Q2, due to the sharp rise in COE premiums. CPI-All Items inflation, which rose by 2.2% in April and May, is expected to ease in the second half of this year as base effects fade. The property market has been remarkably resilient in the face of the pandemic and recession last year and continued uncertainty over COVID-19 risks this year. While nominal GDP contracted 8.2% in 2020, the residential property price index rose by 1.6% during the year. As at Q1 2021, the PPI was 5.6% above its pre-pandemic levels, while nominal GDP was about 4% below. MAS, together with MND and URA, remain highly vigilant to the risk of a sustained increase in prices relative to income trends. A prolonged divergence between prices and incomes is unsustainable from a market stability perspective and undesirable from a housing affordability perspective.

This was largely offset by a negative currency translation effect of $ billion, mainly due to the strengthening of the Singapore Dollar against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. For the financial year, MAS made a net profit of $ billion. This was after: deducting $ billion of expenses for domestic money market and other operations; and contributing $ billion to the Government’s Consolidated Fund, as payment in lieu of corporate income tax. MAS will return half of the profits, or $ billion to the Government and the remainder will be added to MAS’ reserves. MAS 50th ANNIVERSARY This year marks MAS’ 50th anniversary. We will be commemorating this milestone with a series of activities later this year, to reflect on the journey we have taken and to thank all our partners who have walked with us and 8/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  helped us on this journey. We will provide more details of the activities at a later date. Like the rest of Singapore, MAS has come a long way.
Yves Mersch: Making Europe’s financial market infrastructure a bulwark of financial stability Speaking points by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, for the Bank of France/Sciences Po research seminar “Financial stability in a digital world”, Paris, 7 June 2016. *  *  *  Introduction •  Europe’s financial market infrastructure has proved to be resilient through bouts of financial market volatility;  •  it has supported the liquidity and stability of financial markets in times of stress;  •  the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem, in conjunction with European legislators and market participants, have made Europe’s financial market infrastructure into the bulwark of financial stability it is today;  •  in the first part of my presentation, I will investigate the potential impact of the digitalisation of financial services on Europe’s market infrastructure;  •  in the second part, I will outline how the Eurosystem plans to deal with the technological and strategic challenges which affect our market infrastructure.

The White House believes that the commercial and technological environment is changing far too rapidly for it to be able to develop policy that is both timely and appropriate. In the near term, therefore, the White House is calling for case-by-case monitoring of electronic payments experiments. In keeping with the spirit of the White House Framework, Federal bank supervisors in the United States have expressed a clear willingness to listen to what the private sector has to say on issues involving emerging electronic payments. For example, in 1996 the Board of Governors issued proposed regulations concerning the applicability of Regulation E to stored-value cards. As part of that proposed rule making, the Board requested comments from the public as to whether part or all of Regulation E should apply to electronic money or value residing on a computer system or personal-computer hard drive. Similarly, the FDIC requested public comment on the application of Federal deposit-insurance coverage to electronic value represented on computer systems. This openness, combined with an increasing willingness to let the banking industry partner with technology and other industries, reflects a commitment on the part of bank supervisors in the United States to allow the private sector to direct the future of electronic commerce and payments. From a longer term perspective, however, the market-place and industry self-regulation alone may not fully address all of the issues associated with e-money.
Around 12% had worked from home in the previous week and a little more than a quarter said they had worked from home at some point in the recent past.3 At the peak of lockdown in April, almost half of the workforce was working from home in any given week, either exclusively or partially. Over the summer that fraction began falling as restrictions were loosened, before beginning to rise again gradually following government announcements in September. The fraction of the workforce home-working currently stands at around a third, multiples of its pre-Covid level. Of course, these averages obscure some sharp differences across sectors and occupations. Even before the pandemic, there was a high incidence of home-working in sectors such as information and communication (over 50%), professional and scientific (around 45%) and real estate and finance (about 40%). During lockdown, all of these sectors headed towards a 100% model of home-working. That was not the case, either pre or post-Covid, among a range of other occupations representing between half and two-thirds of the workforce. Many of those were key workers, including in health and social care, dealing with the effects of the pandemic. In this respect, Covid has not only accelerated pre-existing trends towards home-working; it has also widened pre-existing occupational divides between those who can and cannot exercise the option of home-working.4 Surveys of workers and businesses suggest increased home-working is likely to persist, albeit not on the same scale. Around a fifth of businesses say they intend using home-working as a permanent business model.

SPEECH  New challenges in a changing world Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Deutsche Börse Annual Reception in Eschborn Eschborn, 23 January 2023  Introduction It is a pleasure to speak with you here in Eschborn, marking the start of the New Year. A new beginning often brings with it new challenges, but it also presents us with plenty of opportunities. And today I would like to touch on both. Looking at today’s global economy, I am reminded of the playwright and poet Bertolt Brecht, who once observed: “Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are.” The global economy finds itself at a crucial turning point. Last year, we began to see the emergence of a “new global map” of economic relationships – one in which geopolitics is increasingly influencing the global economy. [1] And that in turn has important implications for Europe, which will define the year ahead. A changing world This map is defined by three interrelated factors: shocks, supply, and security. First, with support for an open global trading order on the wane, we are facing new types of shocks to the global economy. For the past few decades, open trade has supported global growth by allowing countries to “rotate” demand during slumps. [2] But now it could become a source of volatility.
In particular, the rapid surge in prices over the last year, has been brought under control and inflation has been declining in recent months, through easing the pressures on household' budgets and reducing uncertainties for enterprises. At the same time, the banking sector appears sound, indicators on the stability of both public and external debt have been improving, the financial environment is calm, and enterprises and households' balance sheets remain solid. These achievements are not a result of chance. They reflect, among other things, adequate and coordinated monetary, financial and fiscal policies and the results of continuous structural reforms which we have undertaken in the financial sector. The proportional and timely reaction of these policies has minimised the immediate consequences of shocks and has safeguarded the production capacity of Albania. In parallel, continuous structural reforms have strengthened the flexibility and resilience of the Albanian economy, by helping both the monetary and financial stability of Albania. 1/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  In my remarks today, I will provide an overview on the main directions of the Bank of Albania's work throughout 2022 and its results. I would then like to share a brief summary of our expectations and highlight some of our primary objectives for 2023. ***  1. The outlook for the economy, price stability and the Bank of Albania's monetary policy The global geopolitical and economic environment experienced upheaval in a radical and unexpected manner at the outset of 2022, due to the Russian unjustified invasion of Ukraine.

If monetary conditions in Switzerland called for it, the SNB could sell some of its reserves in order to shorten its balance sheet. Although we have not yet reached this point, such an eventuality should not be ruled out. 11 The SNB must be able to deploy its balance sheet at all times, quickly and without restriction. These reserves therefore have to meet stringent security and liquidity requirements. Consequently, as chart 3 shows, we invest a very large proportion of our reserves in government bonds denominated in the major currencies, such as the euro, the dollar, the yen, pound sterling and the Canadian dollar. Holding liquid investments that can be mobilised rapidly allows the SNB to use its balance sheet at any time, should monetary policy require it. A second aspect that differentiates us from other investors is that we remain as neutral as possible vis-à-vis the market. In other words, we must be able to move large volumes without unduly influencing prices. This neutrality ensures that the SNB is able to build up and scale back its investments quickly and efficiently, while avoiding conflicts of interest with its mandate. Neutrality also guarantees that the SNB’s investment policy remains independent of all political considerations. In this sense, neutrality is an essential condition for the optimal fulfilment of our mandate. Finally, at the operational level, the SNB differs from other investors in that it cannot protect itself against the greatest risk to these reserves – currency risk.
The continuation of the current upswing in 2019 will continue to rest on the expansion of domestic demand (see Chart 1). Underpinning this will be: financial conditions that are expected to remain relatively favourable; an improvement in the financial position of households and firms; the gains in competitiveness observed throughout the recovery; and the strength of the employment creation process. It is expected that employment creation will slow this year, partly owing to the lesser pace of activity, but also to the increase of more than 22% in the national minimum wage. In any event, according to the Banco de España’s projections, the annual growth in numbers employed will stand at around 1.6% in 2019, providing for further reductions in the unemployment rate, to around 14% at end-2019 (see Chart 2). All told, there are grounds for a progressive slackening of economic growth in Spain over the coming years. These are, namely: the recent easing in global growth, which is proving BANCO DE ESPAÑA  3	 TESTIMONY BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA BEFORE PARLIAMENT IN RELATION TO THE DRAFT STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET FOR 2019  FORECASTS FOR THE SPANISH ECONOMY: COMPOSITION OF OUTPUT GROWTH NET EXTERNAL DEMAND. CONTRIBUTIONS  GDP.

BANCO DE ESPAÑA  10	 TESTIMONY BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA BEFORE PARLIAMENT IN RELATION TO THE DRAFT STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET FOR 2019  The third source of risk for projected revenues that I wish to highlight relates to the fact that the estimation of the revenue impact of the new taxes is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the absence of any data on how they have functioned in the past. Finally, caution should be exercised in relation to the potential delay in the entry into force of the measures accompanying the Draft Budget, which adds a further risk for expected revenues in 2019. 2.3  The government deficit target and the fiscal policy stance in 2019  Having discussed the spending policies and revenues of the Draft Budget separately I will now consider them together, in order to assess the uncertainty surrounding achievement of the deficit target of 1.3%. For this purpose, economists at the Banco de España have conducted a preliminary updating of the December projections, which I have already considered in detail. In particular, the impact on these projections of the revenue and spending measures that have been included in the Draft Budget since then is estimated, resulting in a general government deficit of around 2% of GDP in 2019, as compared with the Banco de España’s December projection of 2.4%. Moreover, the economic growth forecast would be revised down slightly, mainly as a result of incorporation of the impact of the tax measures.
This was especially the case in the euro area but also in the United States, while stagnation continued in Japan. Certain emerging regions, such as Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, were more buoyant. But the economic results in Latin America were very poor. Inflation rates generally held at low levels and the trade imbalances between the main areas increased. Some of the uncertainty bearing on the world economy was associated with a complicated geopolitical situation. Unfortunately, it cannot be said that all the factors holding back an international recovery are behind us. The swift conclusion of the Iraq war has eliminated some of the main factors of uncertainty and this, along with cheaper oil and improved stock market prices, should contribute to entrenching a scenario that allows a more robust though still moderate pace of growth, even though doubts remain about the vigour of growth in a climate of lacklustre private investment. But the confidence crisis besetting the world economy was not only the result of the geopolitical situation. The disclosure of a series of irregularities in the financial statements of certain major companies, especially in the United States, fuelled a notable lack of confidence about the information provided to the markets and called into question not only companies’ reported earnings, but also the suitability of accounting regulations and the independence of auditors and investment banks.

A striking example of rational mimetic behaviour is the influence that hedge funds posess as “opinion leaders” and trend setters. By its nature, trend following amplifies the imbalance that may at some point affect a market, potentially leading to vicious circles of price adjustment and liquidation of positions. Moreover, increasing numbers of participants are able to access financial markets directly, while the expertise to deal with a wide range of technical information is not evenly distributed. This may also reinforce the role of “gurus”. Index management, as a fund management technique, has proven very popular on equity markets and may have contributed to exacerbating fluctuations in financial asset prices. Because their goal is to mimic the performance of indices, “passive managers” constantly strive to match the composition of their benchmark. They thus help to amplify market trends, buying more as the market rises and increasingly liquidating as the market drops. It can be argued that index funds distort the prices of the targeted indices and that, as a result, the indices end up creating rather than measuring performance. 13  Leading indicators of currency crisis in emerging countries – BURKART, COUDERT – Notes d’Etude et de Recherche – Banque de France – 2000. 6  BIS Review 71/2002  The impact of risk management techniques on market dynamics is particularly enlightening with regard to the question of asset price overshooting.