samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This combination of measures has contributed to a stabilisation in the financial environment and an improvement in the transmission of our monetary policy. We need to carefully monitor further developments. It is also important to keep in mind that all our non-standard monetary policy measures are temporary in nature and that all the necessary tools are available to address upside risks to medium-term price stability in a firm and timely manner. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP contracted by 0.3% in the euro area in the fourth quarter of 2011. Survey data confirm a stabilisation in economic activity at a low level in early 2012. We continue to expect the euro area economy to recover gradually in the course of the year. The outlook for economic activity should be supported by foreign demand, the very low short-term interest rates in the euro area, and all the measures taken to foster the proper functioning of the euro area economy. However, the remaining tensions in euro area sovereign debt markets and their impact on credit conditions, as well as the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors and high unemployment in parts of the euro area, are expected to continue to dampen the underlying growth momentum. Downside risks to the economic outlook prevail. They relate in particular to a renewed intensification of tensions in euro area debt markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy.

Mario Draghi: ECB press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 4 April 2012. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council. Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information that has become available since the beginning of March broadly confirms our previous assessment. Inflation rates are likely to stay above 2% in 2012, with upside risks prevailing. Over the policy-relevant horizon, we expect price developments to remain in line with price stability. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Survey indicators for economic growth have broadly stabilised at low levels in the early months of 2012, and a moderate recovery in activity is expected in the course of the year. The economic outlook remains subject to downside risks. Medium-term inflation expectations for the euro area economy must continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Over the last few months we have implemented both standard and nonstandard monetary policy measures.
Some of the world’s biggest banks, asset managers and insurers are already preparing for life after Brexit and steering their European operations away from London to our capital. Paris is already home to four of the eight 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  global systemically important banks in the euro area, in addition to being number one in the region in insurance and asset management. Recent regulatory initiatives have made Paris even more dynamic. Capitalising on the reform of Negotiable European Commercial Paper (NEU CP) in 2016, a number of very innovative projects have been launched: for instance, the French telecoms company Orange and the fintech SETL have jointly set up a new central securities depository (CSD) called ID2S for the NEU CP market, using blockchain technology. Paris is also at the heart of cross-border initiatives, making the European financial market more integrated. The market exchange operator Euronext is continuing to expand its federal model and in November 2017 acquired the Irish Stock Exchange. The CSD Euroclear is also committed to fostering common infrastructures, and is even looking beyond Europe with partnerships in the United States with DTCC or in Asia thanks to Bond Connect. Building on this comprehensive financial ecosystem, Paris has also been one of the principal supporters of the renminbi’s move towards internationalisation. As of today, Paris is indeed the leading continental European centre for deposits and bond issuances in RMB.

Binghamton, on the other hand, has really been struggling with no signs yet of any meaningful recovery. Meanwhile, Northern New Jersey’s economy had been growing fairly steadily until this past winter when activity softened, probably due at least in part to the unusually harsh weather. Now that spring is finally upon us, we hope to see economic conditions improve more significantly. What kinds of jobs have been created during the recovery? Let me turn to the topic of today’s press briefing: how the types of jobs in the region have changed over the last business cycle. Firms often change the way they utilize workers and the mix of skills they employ during recessions and recoveries. The weakening demand during recessions forces firms to look for new ways to be more efficient to cope with hard times. These adjustments do not affect all workers equally. Indeed, it’s what we typically think of as middle-skilled workers – for example, construction workers, machine operators and administrative support personnel – that are hardest hit during recessions. Further, a feature of the Great Recession and indeed the prior two recessions, is that the middle-skill jobs that were lost don’t all come back during the recoveries that follow. Instead, job opportunities have tended to shift toward higher- and lower-skilled workers. As we’ll show, these same trends have played out in our region. While there’s been a good number of both higher-skill and lower-skill jobs created in the region during the recovery, opportunities for middle-skilled workers have continued to shrink.
These challenges are inherent parts of the mega trends, which include the crisis facing western economies and advancing regional economic integration. Currently, Thailand appears to be at a transitional gateway of these mega-trends, where the future looks blurry. The persistent economic slowdown plaguing the advanced economies of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  United States and Europe leading up to sovereign debt crisis and continued financial system stresses do not yet have a clear resolution in place. Many observers, however, view that after this transitional gateway, Asia will be under the spotlight with China as the new leader, leading the economic expansion for other countries in the region. Despite this optimism, countries in Asia cannot afford to relax, sit back, and enjoy the ride, as economic volatility could arise intermittently via trade and financial channels from western economies. The degree of such impact depends on how well each economy is prepared for the potential disruption. Another aspect of the transitional gateway is the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. This regional integration will bring not only changes in the regional investment and trade landscape, but also changes in people’s attitude as an ASEAN citizen where travel and contact will become more frequent. Nonetheless, we should not view AEC as the final destination, but rather a stepping stone towards enhancing economic resiliency in the region by creating a single ASEAN market and production base.

One is the target variable, in which case I believe we should consider changing to an index upon which policy rate changes do not have such a major direct impact as on the CPI. Another is an interval surrounding the target. The main reason for considering a reintroduction of an interval is the need to constantly remind people that monetary policy is pursued under significant uncertainty and that the Riksbank is not able to fine-tune the economy and inflation. I look forward to continued discussions about these issues. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  References Dorich, José, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk and Rhys Mendes (2015), Assessing the Benefits of a Higher Inflation Target. Under publication in Staff Discussion Papers, Bank of Canada. The Economic Commission (1993), “Nya villkor för ekonomi och politik.” (New conditions for the economy and policy) (In Swedish) The Economic Commission's proposal, SOU 1993:16. Flodén, Martin (2015), Sweden needs its inflation target. Speech at Fores, 13 October. Fromlet, Hubert (2015), “Så kan Riksbanken fungera bättre.” (How the Riksbank can work more efficiently) (In Swedish) Svenska Dagbladet Debate, 13 November, http://www.svd.se/ekonom-sa-kan-riksbanken-fungera-battre. Heikensten, Lars and Anders Vredin (2012), “Akademikerna och penningpolitiken” (Academics and monetary policy) (In Swedish). In Per Molander (ed. ), “Kunskapen och makten – om det offentliga beslutsfattandets kunskapsförsörjning” (Knowledge and power – on public decisionmaking knowledge management) (In Swedish) Atlantis, Stockholm. Johansson, Jesper (2015), How is inflation measured? Economic Commentary no. 5, 2015.
David Clementi: Crisis prevention and resolution two aspects of financial stability  Speech by Mr David Clementi, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the Inaugural Lecture at the South Bank University Centre for Monetary and Financial Economics, London, on 6 September 2000. *  *  *  Introduction Ladies and Gentlemen, When I was invited to give the inaugural lecture at the Centre for Monetary and Financial Stability, I was pleased to accept. It is obviously an honour to be asked to inaugurate any academic institute but supporting the foundation of a centre dedicated to the pursuit of monetary and financial stability is, for a central banker, a particular pleasure! After all, monetary and financial stability and the interaction of the financial system with monetary policy are at the heart of the Bank’s mission. The first of the Bank’s core purposes is maintaining the integrity and value of the currency or, in other words, monetary stability; the second is maintaining the stability of the financial system. I intend to focus my remarks on this second core purpose. Financial stability has always been an integral concern for central banks. We have been reminded of its importance by the events of recent years. The Asian Crisis in particular set in train a programme of international work and discussions, looking at ways to prevent a recurrence and to handle one if it did.

Such a prudential regulatory design would further complement concurrent efforts that are underway to develop Islamic financial markets and Islamic financial instruments. This architecture will contribute towards the development of a robust and resilient Islamic financial system that can effectively preserve financial stability and contribute to balanced growth and development. Ladies and Gentlemen: In recognition of this need, a proposal was made two years ago to establish an organization to spearhead the development of a uniform set of prudential, supervisory and disclosure standards for the Islamic financial services industry internationally. This proposal was crystallized and endorsed during a consultative meeting of a group of Central Bank Governors, and officials from the Islamic Development Bank (1DB), the Accounting and. Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Prague in September 2000 during the occasion  BIS Review 64/2002  1  of the lMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. The endorsement set in motion the formation of a preparatory committee, with officials from Bahrain, Iran, Malaysia and Sudan, and representatives from the IMF, IDB and AAOIFI, to develop the terms of reference and operational structure for the Islamic Financial Services Board. In a meeting of Governors in April this year, Malaysia was mandated to lead a Steering Committee for the establishment and inauguration of the Islamic Financial Services Board in Kuala Lumpur. Today's historic event is the culmination of this extensive two-year consultative process.
The macroeconomic effects of a transfer of resources from debtor to creditor 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  countries is an old issue, going back to the debate between Keynes and Ohlin about Germany’s international obligations after World War I. In recent decades, Maury Obstfeld and Ken Rogoff 4 have pointed out in a series of papers that the basic mechanism of the adjustment results in a transfer of real resources from debtor countries to surplus countries, regardless of the drivers of global rebalancing. In the debtor country, there is a clear macroeconomic cost related to a drop in domestic spending and welfare, leading to large negative output gaps and high unemployment rates, and in turn putting strong downward pressures on wages. This is typically what we saw in the euro area, where the adjustment contributed to the very different dynamics of unit labour costs across countries [Slide 5], and therefore led to relative price adjustments. In cumulative terms since 2007, Germany has seen real exchange rate appreciation of about 8% relative to France, and 20% relative to Spain, although we should take into account in these dynamics the large gains in German competitiveness before the crisis. The adjustment relied mainly on nominal adjustment in deficit countries. The link between the current account and the real exchange rate is still subject to considerable debate among academics.

Chart 4: Switch from services to goods has been a global phenomenon  Sources: OECD Quarterly National Accounts, IMF World Economic Outlook and Bank calculations. Chart 5: Production limits have led to bottlenecks and steep price rises for some traded goods  Nor have these shifts been limited to goods versus services. In the UK, there seems to be quite a bit of divergence in demand even within sectors, not just between them. Some of this may reflect differences across regions in the strength of the recovery – there are indications that activity has been slower to return in cities than in less urban areas. And whatever the underlying causes of this dispersion, it seems to have resulted in a degree of mismatch in the labour market. Some firms are finding it hard to recruit people, even as others have kept significant numbers on furlough. If only at the margin, this mismatch may have added to  5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  5  near-term pressure on wages. The full-time pay of those on furlough doesn’t fall but, where there are shortages, firms have to pay more4. In January, I felt that these mismatches would probably get ironed out over time. If the pandemic had caused significant shifts in demand those would be reversed as economies recovered: we were likely to see the strongest growth in the areas hardest hit during the downturn, and in which there was therefore more spare capacity.
While Greece, with its strategic position between Asia and Central Europe, has long been exposed to commerce, Switzerland, a country without natural resources, has in some sense been forced to embrace trade in order to survive. Switzerland has now become a global player. Today, the “cliche” of Switzerland as an isolated country with its citizens “entrenched in the Alps, living happily and looking after their cows” totally belies the facts. We tend to easily forget that exports of goods and services account for more than 40 percent of our gross domestic product and that the European market absorbs about two thirds of our exports. The presence of Swiss firms in European countries is also very pronounced, with more jobs created abroad than at home in recent years. In 2002, Swiss direct investments in Europe represented around 7 billion euros, i.e. 13.5 percent of total investments in Switzerland, and Swiss firms employed close to one million people in Europe, equivalent to about one quarter of Swiss employment. Around 9’000 of those employees are living in Greece. My purpose here is not to brag about the Swiss economy, but to emphasize the fact that Switzerland is very open to international trade, investment, and migration, and that our economy is very integrated in the global economy and intimately linked to the euro zone. Swiss monetary policy With those facts in mind, you might wonder whether Switzerland, a highly integrated country surrounded by trading partners sharing the euro, can still follow an autonomous monetary policy.

This would have significant implications on the role of the financial sector in the overall economy. The main reservation with such reforms has been whether they will in fact deliver greater financial stability beyond more basic and well designed changes to the regulatory architecture. It also raises the question as to whether it would significantly raise the cost of financial intermediation. A central piece of the ongoing international debate on the regulatory reform agenda is the proposal on limiting the size of institutions. Whether this in itself will effectively reduce systemic risks has yet to be demonstrated. The experiences of Australia and Canada which have highly concentrated banking systems suggest that the control of systemic risk has less to do with size, and more to do with the effectiveness of risk management and supervision of the large institutions. Malaysia shares this view. Following the Asian financial crisis, measures were taken to prompt the consolidation of our banking sector, thus creating larger institutions with enhanced capabilities not only to operate effectively in the domestic financial system but also beyond domestic borders. The focus is to emphasise on the investment in the risk management capabilities of not only management but also the board of the institutions. It is plausible that artificial restrictions on size or scope could result in a shift of systemic risks to closely inter-connected networks of smaller institutions which collectively pose a similar degree of systemic risk. Emerging economies have great interest in the direction of these reforms.
In the run-up to my second visit, in June 1998 in Birmingham, we had again put up interest rates in successive steps, by 1¾% - with no one else to blame. But once more, following the conference - and again I imply no direct cause and effect - our next move, in October 1998, was to begin cutting rates. And here I am, my third attempt, only to find we’ve done it yet again - in the run-up to this conference we have once more raised interest rates in successive steps - by 1%. I make no prediction as to what might happen following this conference - one way or the other! Despite this unfortunate timing I’m very happy to be with you again this morning. My earlier experiences mean that I’m quite used to entering this particular lion’s den - even on this occasion Roger Lyons’ den! Good morning, Roger. I well understand that some of you - perhaps many of you - would like interest rates to be lower, in the hope particularly that this would also lower sterling’s exchange rate especially against the euro. And to be perfectly honest, if I were a farmer, or a steel maker, a motor manufacturer or even a hotel operator, indeed anyone competing primarily with Continental European producers right now, from my own, microeconomic, standpoint, I’d find that tempting too.

But alongside low inflation we’ve had the lowest nominal interest rates that most of us can remember. Short-term rates have averaged some 6¼% compared with some 11¼% over the preceding decade. And 10-year government bond yields have fallen, with inflationary expectations, to around 5¼% which apart from a brief period last year is the lowest they’ve been for nearly 40 years. Much more fundamentally we’ve enjoyed the longest period of uninterrupted, quarter by quarter, economic growth since records began some 45 years ago - with annual growth averaging 2.8% - between ¼ and ½% above most estimates of our underlying trend rate. The number of people in employment is the highest on record. And unemployment has fallen from a peak of 10½% on a claimant count basis to the present rate of 4%. That is the lowest for 20 years in the UK as a whole, and just about the lowest in nearly every region. This is not just past history. Having come through the global economic slowdown a year or two ago, the economy as a whole is now again growing at well above trend, with inflation a bit below target; and the broad prospect for the next couple of years - on most forecasts, including the MPC’s February forecast based upon our collective best assumptions - is for continuing relatively strong growth with relatively high employment and relatively low inflation.
While the transmission mechanism from official interest rates to the economy has been impaired by the dislocation of financial markets, the cuts in interest rates are still having an impact. While the reductions in the income of savers have offset to some extent the benefits to borrowers in the household sector, the net gain to the company sector is clear. The changes in interest rates have also accounted in part for the depreciation in the sterling exchange rate, which is down around a fifth in the past six months. No one who has lived through the 70s, 80s and early 90s will be complacent about a fall in sterling. But there is no doubt that an appreciable fall in the pound, such as we have seen, has been helpful both in supporting exports and import substitution in the short term and in encouraging the rebalancing of the economy that we need in the medium term. My second point is that it is important to distinguish the medium term from the short term goals. In the medium term we need to see a rebalancing of the economy in the UK, and some other countries, with a higher savings rates, less leverage in the financial sector, and higher net exports. However if everyone tries to increase saving and cut borrowing immediately we could prolong the downturn painfully. If everyone plans for the worst, we are more likely to get it.

As Chart 7 shows, in the housing market for example there is a clear difference between the biggest UK banks and the rest; we saw a big increase in lending especially by foreign banks in the years 2006 and 2007; many of them have now withdrawn from the market. On top of that, of course Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley have largely ceased new lending. As a result the continued lending of the main banks – and some smaller banks and building societies – is offset by reductions elsewhere. What matters for the economy as a whole of course is the total flow of credit. BIS Review 5/2009  3  The policy challenge Nearly all economic policy decisions work with a lag. So there is a limited amount we can do at this point to influence the path of output in the first half of this year (although there may be ways of mitigating the costs). The main challenge now is to prevent a deep recession being unnecessarily prolonged. I want to conclude by making three points about that challenge. First, the full impact of the measures of the last few months have yet to be felt. In the UK, the Bank has cut interest rates from 5% to 1.5% since October, the government has cut taxes and expanded spending and the banking system has been supported through recapitalisation and improved access to funding and liquidity. These measures will have a growing effect, even if we do nothing more.