samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A 5-year period is very short for the structural achievements made in a country with a 30-year inflationary past to repair the fragility in expectations in a permanent way. Therefore, in a period where financial fluctuations were observed in all developing countries, the shortterm market fluctuations originating from foreigners’ exits were perceived to be much more negative in Turkey, although there was not a permanent deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals. As seen in the table in the slide, there have been eight fluctuations since the year 2001 when the floating exchange rate regime was put into practice, and exchange rates have even surpassed the top value that was recorded in the recent fluctuation. However, to the extent that the program was implemented decisively and policies were conducted without any interruption, there had always been a return to the main trend where the Turkish lira appreciated. It should be kept in mind that this process is also the process for the Turkish lira to gain credibility. As long as macroeconomic fundamentals are strengthened and structural reforms are achieved, this process is likely to continue. Table.

Meanwhile, depreciation of the Turkish lira due to excessive volatility observed in international markets in May and June, led to hikes in the prices of petroleum products, consumer durables and the prices of goods that are set in terms of foreign currencies and prices of imported goods. One of the sub-groups that are most severely affected by this situation is the transportation group. Petroleum products prices, which are registered under the transportation group, increased by 5.9 percent and 3.3 percent in June and July, respectively. Meanwhile, automobile prices registered under the same group increased by 10 percent in April-June 2006. Prices of processed food products, which displayed a limited rise in the  2  BIS Review 89/2006  first six months of the year, displayed a higher rate of increase in July due to the lagged effects of the fluctuations in exchange rates. The contribution of the depreciation of Turkish lira to consumer inflation in the May-June period reached 1.5 percentage points. When we analyze inflation under two groups as goods and services, it is observed that inflation in the services group has decreased throughout 2006 compared to the same period last year, however especially due to the high rates of increase in house rents and restaurant-hotel prices, annual inflation in the services group became 11.7 percent annually as of July and maintained its high level. The 20.5percent rise in house rents is remarkable in this group.
We have said that the prerequisites for capital account liberalisation are macroeconomic stability, sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and a financial system that can stand on its feet without capital controls. The first of these conditions has been met, and the next will be met upon successful conclusion of the third IMF review. The prospect of meeting the third condition in the next few months has improved in view of strong interim earnings reports from two of Iceland’s large commercial banks and the recent Supreme Court judgment concerning the interest rate to be used for loans with nonbinding (illegal) exchange rate linkage clauses. But it would be a misunderstanding to assume that the timeframe can be measured in terms of weeks rather than months. We must receive the next tranche of the IMF loan after the third review, and we probably cannot pronounce the banks sound with respect to capital account liberalisation until late November. Furthermore, it is appropriate to bear in mind, as the recent unrest in the bond market shows, that there are short-term risks related to the removal of the controls; thus it is important that each step be well prepared. But if nothing unexpected arises, the time is coming closer, and preparation is underway within the Central Bank. BIS Review 130/2010  3  Of course, we won’t make much progress in lifting the controls or gaining access to foreign credit markets if the Icelandic Government is considered unlikely to be able to fulfil its foreign loan obligations.

But even excluding those price increases, inflation had moved up on account of, for example, a growing tendency for wage costs to rise too rapidly. With a quick global economic recovery, there was a risk of the Swedish economy becoming excessively strained too soon in the upward phase, so that inflation would start rising again. During the summer, however, the perspective has changed and it looks as though the recovery in the world economy has recently slowed. Probable explanations for this are the widespread financial turbulence and the concern about the mounting security policy risks. Most of the evidence therefore points at present to the international economic upturn being slower and more protracted. The Swedish economy, which, as I said, has coped fairly well to date, cannot of course ultimately remain immune to developments in the rest of the world. Pronounced stock market fall Thus, the developments in financial markets have heightened the uncertainty about the future paths of consumption and investment, both in the rest of the world and in Sweden. If the international stock  BIS Review 59/2002  1  exchanges were to go on falling or the effects of the decline to date turn out to be more extensive, the scenario for the Swedish economy could become considerably less favourable. A closer look at stock markets shows that since the high in spring 2000 there has been a major fall around the world.
1) Percent 10 9  10  Equities Fixed income  9  8  8  7  7  6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1 0  0 1999-2009  2010-2019  1) At 30 September 2019. Source: Norges Bank  The rise in equity prices has largely been driven by a fairly small number of companies. US corporate profit margins have increased markedly. The big earners have been the tech giants, which typically operate in markets where there are substantial profits to be gained as the dominant company. Their profits have drawn growing attention from competition authorities and higher taxation is under discussion internationally. Current valuations are based on expectations of sustained profit growth. This entails a downward potential. 6  Developments in the fund’s value over the past decade must also be seen in the context of the decline in global interest rates over time. The interest rate decline reflects the expansionary monetary stance prevailing since the financial crisis. Central bank policy rates were reduced to very low levels in many countries in order to stimulate economic activity. Several central banks have also engaged in substantial asset purchases, which has pushed down long-term interest rates further. NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 13 FEBRUARY 2020  But low interest rates also reflect other driving forces such as population ageing, high saving in emerging economies, growing inequality and a general decline in productivity growth.

We want to continue to work together with all of you here on this agenda. We look forward to hearing your ideas, suggestions and questions through the panel discussion coming up shortly, and in our networking session with our market intelligence teams later on today. We want to use 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  that as a starting point to build stronger links with a wider, more diverse group of colleagues, and also deepen those over time, as they progress through their careers. There is a very important further issue in all of this, which is sadly highly topical, namely to ask what is the antidote to the problem of lobbying? The answer is not to speak to no-one. That is not likely to lead to good decision making. The answer is to be rigorous about speaking to a diverse range of people to get their views. We look forward to engaging with you in the future, working together to understand financial market developments from a diverse and varied range of perspectives to inform our policy committee decisions. Thank you I am grateful to Christine Boykiw, Sumita Ghosh, Sam Juthani, Ankita Mehta and Arjun Popat for their assistance in helping me prepare these remarks.​ 1 See Carney (2017) – link in References section. Gender, ethnicity, age, disability, sexual orientation and  education are types of ‘identity’ diversity. ‘Cognitive’ diversity is about our perspectives and how we think about and solve problems.
But it will not supervise banks (not even as an agent) and it will not manage government debt. It is agreed that those functions will remain firmly with the national central banks (or other relevant agencies). In payment systems the ECB will be responsible for only the tip of the iceberg, that is TARGET, the system linking the various national payment systems of EU member states. This narrow focus is no accident: the ECB’s task is to maintain monetary stability, and its design reflects that. The European System of Central Banks, collectively, will do much more than that, of course. Discussions between EU central banks on how monetary policy will operate within the EMU are well advanced, and the European Monetary Institute published a report in January setting out what is agreed and what remains to be decided. In principle, the creation of the ECB in 1998 (in advance of Stage III) or thereafter need not affect the other activities of EU central banks, whether they are in or out of the euro-area, provided they do not conflict with the ECB’s achievement of monetary stability. But it seems very likely that some of the activities of the national central banks, and especially those who are members of the euro-area, will change character as EMU develops (if it does). That is partly because questions will undoubtedly be asked about costs.

Legislation in 1942 followed the then German model, particularly in making the Bank of Japan subservient to the Ministry of Finance; and after the war, there was American influence. 1 Rosa Maria Lastra, “Central Banking and Banking Regulation”, LSE Financial Markets Group,  1996, page 285. BIS Review 33/1997  -3-  In Figures 1 and 2, I have attempted to capture some of the distinctions between these leading central banks. (Because I am concentrating on distinctions, I have omitted common tasks - such as the issuance of banknotes and acting as banker for government - which are carried out by virtually all central banks.) Figure 1 shows the UK’s “scores” in five areas, while Figure 2 adds in, by way of comparison, the other G5 countries. Mapping the distinctions is not an easy task. For instance, though in Germany a government office is responsible for banking supervision, it is central bank staff who undertake much of the day-to-day work of monitoring individual banks. In France, supervision is the responsibility of the Commission Bancaire, but its secretariat is effectively part of the Banque de France, and the Governor chairs it. And in Japan, the central bank closely monitors the large banks, though the responsibility for supervision formally rests with the finance ministry.
Better health, less heavy work and in many countries a social safety net are also among the gains. Chart: Global warming Nor does it capture all of the costs. Our economic progress has taken its toll on our most important public good: the natural environment. The greatest environmental challenge is of a global nature. With ever higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the planet’s average temperature has risen. This has serious, long-term implications both for meteorological conditions and for society. The research field the “Bergen School” helped pave the way for has now gained fresh relevance. Greenhouse gas emissions have increased primarily due to human activity. Irrespective of their source, emissions all have an equal weight in global carbon accounting. Action and innovation to combat climate change are therefore necessary in multiple sectors and across countries. The pricing of emissions is crucial for achieving future emissions targets. The polluter must pay. Firms and consumers will then find it profitable to choose more eco-friendly production methods and products. If everyone also faces the same emissions costs, the reductions that cost the least will be made first. Departing from this principle will increase the costs of mitigating global warming. The pricing of emissions also boosts demand for new and more eco-friendly technology, making it more profitable to invest in research and development of new solutions and products. These must stem from choices made by the individual firm and the individual consumer. The development of new technology to combat global warming is advancing too slowly.

News conference  Embargo 22 June 2023, 10.00 am  Introductory remarks by the Governing Board  Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Andréa M. Maechler Chairman of the Governing Board / Vice Chairman of the Governing Board / Member of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Zurich, 22 June 2023 © Swiss National Bank  Page 1/8  Zurich, 22 June 2023 Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  Ladies and gentlemen It is my pleasure to welcome you to the news conference of the Swiss National Bank. I would also like to welcome all those who are joining us today online. After our introductory remarks, we will take questions from journalists as usual. Questions can also be asked by telephone. Monetary policy decision I will begin with our monetary policy decision. We have decided to tighten our monetary policy further and to raise the SNB policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75%. In doing so, we are countering inflationary pressure, which has increased again over the medium term. It cannot be ruled out that additional rises in the SNB policy rate will be necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term. To provide appropriate monetary conditions, we also remain willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. In the current environment, the focus is on selling foreign currency. The SNB policy rate change applies from tomorrow, 23 June 2023.
The historical fact that, at the time of the introduction of the euro, market interest rates on instruments denominated in euro all along the yield curve were to be aligned with the lowest – and not with the average – rates prevailing prior to the euro was not foreseen by many observers prior to Stage III. The historically low level of short, medium and long-term market interest rates was unthinkable in some countries, which had experienced much higher inflation in the past. In my view, the incorporation of monetary analysis into our monetary policy strategy served, in the eyes of the global market, as an anchor for expectations that in no small way contributed to our success in building and maintaining credibility. The monetary policy strategy of the ECB announced in October 1998 explicitly recognises the monetary nature of inflation by assigning an important role to money in the formulation of monetary policy decisions aimed at the maintenance of price stability. As Prof. Issing explained to us in detail, there were and still are many good reasons to do so. Milton Friedman’s famous dictum that “inflation always and everywhere is a monetary phenomenon” is one of the central tenets of economic theory.

Jean-Claude Trichet: The role of money – money and monetary policy in the 21st century (closing address) Closing address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Fourth ECB Central Banking Conference “The role of money: money and monetary policy in the twenty-first century”, Frankfurt am Main, 10 November 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It has been a great pleasure to host you at this fourth ECB central banking conference. Over the past day and a half, we have enjoyed several outstanding presentations and stimulating discussions, which have helped understand better the role of money in modern monetary policy-making. The richness of the discussions stems in large part from the diversity of views that have been expressed. In selecting the leading participants at this conference, we did not hesitate to choose speakers who would challenge our established views and those of others. And we strongly believe in frank and candid exchanges of views and in the benefits of a close interaction with the academic community. At the conclusion of the conference, I certainly can agree with Prof. Woodford that there is indeed room for further refinement of the intellectual framework used as a basis for monetary policy deliberations. At the same time, I remain convinced that we should not lightly discard elements – such as monetary analysis – that have served central banks well in the past. With these two points in mind, what are the main messages we should draw from the proceedings?
This came against the background of quite volatile movements in the global currency markets, which included, most notably, a sustained weakening of the US dollar against other currencies. At the risk of stating the obvious, an orderly depreciation of the US against other currencies is in Hong Kong's interests because it means that, because Hong Kong's currency is linked to the US dollar, Hong Kong also becomes more competitive. This larger point may have been overlooked in all of the fuss about the somewhat less significant strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar. With regard to the Mainland's currency, the political pressures from outside for an appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate have been prompted by the considerable attention that is being given in the US to the bilateral trade imbalance between the Mainland and the United States. The arguments for appreciation are that, from the US perspective, Chinese exports are undervalued and therefore unfairly competitive, and, from the Chinese perspective, the substantial capital inflow into the Mainland might carry long-term risks. Leaving aside the arguments about trade, let us look a little more closely at the question of capital inflow and how to manage it. First, to put things in perspective, it should be noted that the Mainland's current account surplus is really very small by international standards perhaps something around one per cent of GDP in the first half of 2003. This is much lower than the corresponding figures for many other economies.

Therefore, perception mismatch among frontline staff about what really represents “good customer outcome” is something that banks must be careful to avoid. 8. Another interesting observation from the exercise is about perception of performance gauges. An area that banks have been putting a lot of emphasis in the past few years is reducing the weight of financial performance in incentive systems. Nevertheless, our review found that the perception of incentive structure differs greatly among different staff levels. More simply put, while senior management and supervisors think that the incentive systems are more balanced among business targets and non-financial factors such as compliance and customer outcomes, frontline staff generally still take financial  performance and business targets as the highest assessment priority. This possibly reflects that some other forces maybe at work, such as social interaction and recognition among bank staff. 9. The HKMA published the final report of this review last month. We highlighted in the report the above observations and a number of other interesting points which, I think, is definitely worth a read. In the report, we also put forward incentive system design principles and useful practices identified from the review. We are in the meantime collating the observations on individual participating banks, and will communicate the useful findings to them individually. I truly hope that banks will make good use of the review outcome to assist in their ongoing risk culture journey. Mandatory Reference Checking Scheme 10.
This means that we, together with the Ministry of Finance in the Government Offices, coordinate and conduct Swedish policy in this forum. This evening, I am intending to talk about globalisation - as an opportunity and a challenge. I am going to discuss what the International Monetary Fund is and the role that it has in an increasingly globalised world. To conclude, I will take up Sweden’s participation in the IMF, and what we can expect from the meetings in Prague next week. Globalisation and its benefits Before commenting on critical remarks often presented on globalisation, let me first begin by noting that prosperity in the world has improved dramatically during the past decades. Never before in history has the situation of so many people improved so much so quickly. Since the beginning of the 1980s, purchasing power per capita in the world has more than doubled. In the poor developing countries, this has meant that purchasing power correlated GDP per capita has increased by almost 350%. In the rich industrialised countries, the corresponding growth was 220%. In certain cases, developments have been particularly spectacular, not least in Asia. In 1975, six out of ten Asians lived in absolute poverty - under a dollar a day. Today, the figure is two out of ten. In China alone, the number of poor has fallen from 60 to just under 30% in less than twenty years. There are many factors that explain this development.

In Sweden this usually takes place in the early summer and the delegation stays for a week and visits during this period the Riksbank, the Ministry of Finance, Finansinspektionen [the Swedish financial supervisory authority], the social partners and other central economic participants to obtain a picture of the economic state of the country. This leads to a report that is discussed in the IMF board. In some cases, the IMF has a very practical involvement in countries. Many central banks in developing countries have been established with the assistance of the IMF. An example that is close to hand is the establishment of a central bank in Kosovo. The same applies to introductions of new currencies, or the introduction of new exchange rate regimes. The IMF also trains officials from national central banks and ministries of finance as part of the work of spreading knowledge. BIS Review 78/2000  4  An increasingly important part of its activity concerns creating common rules of play within different areas that affect financial stability. Many of these are in the form of general minimum standards and recommendations, for instance, in bank supervision, financial statistics, transparency and foreign exchange reserve management. By encouraging countries to meet these, countries reinforce their institutional framework, at the same time as increased standardisation makes it easier for everyone to be cognisant of systems in different countries. Not least, this assists investors to make risk assessments.