samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Nevertheless, as it is concluded through the pages of our Annual Report, the Albanian economy was highly resilient against this shock. Our economy has: maintained the positive growth trend; recorded one of the lowest inflation rates across the region and Europe; further consolidated the indicators of fiscal stability and external position of the country. In addition, the Albanian economy has preserved the overall soundness of the private sector's financial balance sheets. In more concrete terms, the Albanian economy - despite facing more expensive imports and tighter financial conditions – expanded by 4.8% in 2022. Economic growth showed a good sectoral allocation and was underpinned by the increase in household consumption, business investments and in exports. On the other hand, the higher demand for goods and services in 2022 was reflected in notable improvements in labour market. Hence, employment grew by 4.2%, unemployment rate declined to the historically minimum level of 10.8%, while average wage in private rose by 12.2%. These developments supported the growth in the Albanian households' income, by  1/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  offsetting the increase in the cost of living for most of them. However, the observed shortages in the labour market are turning into an increasingly large obstacle to the expansion of activity and are fuelling domestic inflationary pressures. In line with these developments, consumer prices have risen sharply in 2022, recording an average inflation rate of 6.7%.

On a more general view, the first effects of our reaction are evident in curbing the increase of inflation and settling it on a declining trajectory. Our assessments show that in the absence of this reaction, inflation would have averaged 4.5 percentage points higher throughout the 2022 – 2024 horizon, having significant negative consequences on both the purchasing power of households and non-performing loans ratio. At the same time, our activity in the field of supervision, regulation and licensing of the banking sector, in 2022, focused on three main directions: (i) guaranteeing the soundness of the banking sector, in presence of real and financial shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine; (ii) monitoring the impact that the upward trend of interest rates had on the balance sheets of the banking sector; and, (iii) dealing with the intense and  3/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  organised cyber-attacks on the country's financial industry and infrastructure. The results of our work in these directions have been positive, helping the banking sector to successfully tackle the challenges of 2022. In parallel with them, we have aimed to further improve our regulatory base and our macroprudential policies and instruments, to further strengthen banking supervision, as well as to promote the development of the payment system, through upgrading the legal, regulatory and infrastructural base. In more concrete terms: First, the Bank of Albania has continued to complete and improve the supervisory regulatory framework, aiming at its approximation with the EU acquis and Basel Committee principles.
C.  The need to preserve the stability of the financial system in order to prevent the emergence of “tail risks” to price stability  The best illustration of tail risks to price stability on the downside associated with financial crises comes from the historical experience of the United States during the Great Depression which followed the collapse of the stockmarket and housing bubbles of the second half of the 1920s, and by that of Japan following the collapse of the real estate bubble of the second half of the 1980s. In both cases a dramatic expansion of credit fuelled bubbles which pushed asset prices to dizzying heights. In the case of the 1920s United States, in particular, such credit expansion was associated with a wave of euphoria caused by “new-era” thinking  2  See Richard Dale (2004), The First Crash: Lessons from the South Sea Bubble, Princeton University Press. 3  See Irving Fisher (1933), “The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”, Econometrica, Vol. 1(4), pp. 337–357. 2  BIS Review 158/2010  which, in turn, had been ignited by the dramatic wave of technological innovation which swept across the country during that decade. 4 The attempt, on the part of young Federal Reserve, to gently deflate asset prices via interest rates increases backfired, and the result was the 1929 crash, with the associated destruction of a staggering amount of financial wealth, and the injection into the economy of a significant extent of uncertainty.

Higher wage growth would have the opposite effect. Overall, moderate growth in household purchasing power is expected to result in lower consumption growth ahead. A gradual increase in the interest rate will probably curb activity in the housing market. Housing investment is expected to grow through this year, although less rapidly than last year. Housing investment growth will thereafter moderate further, and may be somewhat reduced towards the end of the projection period. House price inflation is expected to slow. Household indebtedness has increased in tandem with high activity in the housing market. Growth in household debt (C2) has abated somewhat in recent months, but remains at a high level. Higher interest rates and lower house price inflation will gradually reduce household debt growth in the next few years. Growth in credit to mainland enterprises has also shown a sharp increase over the past year, partly reflecting increased fixed investment. With prospects of continued high capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy, solid profitability, ample liquidity and a high level of optimism among enterprises, strong growth in investment is expected again this year. As economic growth gradually slows, investment growth is also expected to moderate. Monetary policy assessments and strategy Monetary policy is oriented towards a gradual increase in the interest rate – in small, not too frequent steps – towards a more normal level.
We believe that, after coping with the short-term effects of the international financial crisis and following the improvement of the international economic situation, it is the time for the public authorities at home to initiate a process of assessment for the legal and financial operations framework, with the goal to re-establish appropriate balances in the fiscal, monetary and banking activity, to further sustain a stable economic growth and maintain financial stability. In this regard we consider important for the fiscal policy to take respective correcting measures in order to keep the confidence of the resident and non-resident market agents and investors. At the same time, the monetary policy should assess the possible effects on inflation of the financial incentives it provided to the banking sector and to the economy, and later analyze the possibilities to support the financial intermediation of the banking sector in the economy at a lower cost. To provide a longer-term response to the stable economic growth, public authorities should insist on the compilation and implementation of the strategies for future economic development, which in a medium term shall provide for: a)  the establishment of a better balance on the contribution that different sectors give for the economic growth. In this regard, it is important to increase the support for economic sectors with strong growth potential, like agriculture and tourism;  b)  the increase of our economy’s competitiveness and its further formalization.

The architectural concept of Sasana Kijang is also inspired from our earliest form of currency that was used in the third century and which denotes a harmony of simplicity and class. And the facade design of the building is derived from the geometric patterns of the traditional Malaysian songket fabric which is woven with intricate gold and silver threads which creates a strong bond, thus giving the fabric its strength and elegance. This is similar to the Central Banking community that is interlinked through our similar objectives and bonded through collaboration and strategic alliances. Other features of the building is the extensive use of glass which allows for the greater use of natural light. The building also features a range of green technologies as part of our commitment and responsibility to the environment. Finally, another important part of Sasana Kijang is the Bank Negara Malaysia Currency and Economics Museum and the Art Gallery that will be opened to the public. These collections that have been built since the earliest days of our Bank over a period of more than five  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  decades aim to foster greater understanding on the history of our currencies and of our economy and financial system, and also represents our support to contemporary art in Malaysia and thus contribute towards preserving the heritage of our country. Allow me now to invite Yang Amat Berhormat, Dato’ Sri Mohd. Najib bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak to deliver his address and to officially launch Sasana Kijang.
The first one relates to household and corporate bank accounts, the second to the mechanism with which new money is put into circulation. The initiative calls for the creation of payment accounts for households and companies, to be held off-balance sheet by banks, just as securities custody accounts are now. These accounts would be fully covered by SNB money. The idea is that this would prevent bank runs and thereby improve the stability of the banking system. A bank run typically occurs when customers fear that their bank will no longer be able to pay out their deposits. As payment accounts in a sovereign money system would be covered by SNB money, there would be no more reason to doubt the security of these deposits. Yet, this does not mean that the financial system would become more stable overall. For example, the sovereign money system cannot prevent financial bubbles, as these are based primarily on investor misjudgement. Although the sovereign money initiative would somewhat complicate the financing of such misinvestments, it would not prevent them. Improved bank capitalisation, which is something we have advocated, contributes considerably more to increasing the stability of the financial system than a sovereign money system. The second element of the sovereign money initiative is the so-called debt-free creation of new central bank money. Money would enter circulation by the SNB gifting it, so to speak, to the Confederation, the cantons or directly to citizens. Such money distribution would fuel the politicisation of monetary policy.

I also call on banks to better monitor their pricing practices: margins must be sufficient to cover the costs and risks associated with housing loans. These points will be particularly closely monitored by the ACPR in 2020, and they are – I stress – of common interest to both you and us – in terms of financial stability. Lastly, to meet the challenge of profitability, French banks and insurers must be able to – at last! – operate in a genuine single financial market conducive to cross-border consolidation. And yet, the Banking Union is still half-finished: progress on resolution – second pillar – is at least as important as that on the deposit guarantee scheme – third pillar. Moreover, in the run-up to the arduous discussions on the future relationship with the United Kingdom, Europe must – more than ever before – assert its financial sovereignty. This requires the Capital Markets Union. I 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  would like to express my support for the priorities put forward in the “Next CMU” report and for the High-Level Forum (HLF) launched by the new Commission. If 2020 proves to be not only the year of Brexit, but also the year of a Savings and Sustainable Investment Union, Europe will have turned the problem into an opportunity.
This is obviously true relative to foreign exchange markets, but also relative to the gilt market, which had been the exclusive focus of previous MPC asset purchase decisions. To provide some metrics: the volume of sterling corporate bonds traded in a typical day is less than 5% of that traded in gilts, while typical trade sizes are around £ and £ respectively. Bid-offer spreads for a representative sterling investment grade bond would be around 10bps, whereas for a benchmark 10 year gilt these would generally be less than half a basis point. So a key challenge was to articulate an approach which would be effective in this different context. An immediate consequence was that the MPC framed its policy decision somewhat differently: it determined to purchase up to £ billion of corporate bonds over 18 months, whereas for gilts the MPC decided to purchase a fixed total of £ billion of gilts over a six month period, reflecting not only our ability to purchase more quickly in that market but greater certainty about the achievable pace. Turning to implementation, the Bank has an inclination to use auction-based mechanisms to implement policy decisions where possible. Auctions cater for wide participation among active participants in the market in question and avoid the Bank having to discriminate actively between counterparties or instruments. 6  There was a much smaller (around 1.5%), near-instantaneous and much less remarked-upon spike on 30 December in the euro-US dollar exchange rate. 7 See box on page 9 of the Bank’s August 2016 Inflation Report.

I would like to convey my sympathy to our colleagues of the IFS, 10  who had the opportunity to work in close collaboration with him, and to the academic community in general for this loss. Finally, let me express my gratitude to the organisers for making this conference possible and to all of you for attending. I wish you a very productive meeting and a pleasant stay in Madrid. Thank you very much for your attention. 11
Notably, some studies have shown that the ratio of Asian exports for final consumption within Asia has risen, though varying among individual countries. For example, approximately 70 percent of Indonesian exports to China are for final consumption in China. Such ratios for Singapore and Korea are 50 and 40 percent, respectively. That said, it is wise not to jump quickly to conclusion because Asian economies and trade remain critically linked to the G3 economies. While this negative spillover from advanced economies to Asian economies could be partially cushioned on the trade side, I have greater concern on the potential spillover through volatility in international capital flow and financial market movements. In addition to the risk aversion in time of market stress, emerging market economies have tried to live with spillover from exceptionally easy monetary policy in advanced countries. Such practices have created excess global liquidity leading to volatile capital flows into emerging market countries  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  including Thailand. Moreover, excess global liquidity has been an important factor behind the rapid rise in oil and other commodity prices. Unless the advanced economies manage to get themselves out of sluggish growth path, all of us have to be vigilant and cannot rule out the possibility that the US may need to find creative policy actions to stimulate its economy.

Sabine Lautenschläger: Fostering global growth Speech by Ms Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the panel during the G30 International Banking Seminar, Lima, 11 October 2015. *  *  *  I would like to thank Jacob and Jean-Claude for inviting me to participate in this panel. You will not be surprised that I will focus on the growth challenge faced by the euro area countries in my intervention. Let me stress from the outset that I believe that the euro area can make a much stronger contribution to global growth than it has done so far. But for this to happen, we need a stronger reform impetus in many euro area countries. To substantiate this claim, I would like to address two questions: first, where do we stand on growth and reforms in the euro area? And second, which structural reforms are still needed to support stronger and sustainable growth? Where do we stand on growth and reforms in the euro area? Growth has been recovering in the euro area, albeit at a modest pace. Output growth has been gathering pace throughout 2014 and in the first half of 2015 and employment has been increasing. However, developments are still uneven across member countries and it is not clear that the recovery can be sustained in the medium term.
Fourthly, is reinforcing buffers to withstand future shocks. This is a key area of the international reform package that aims to significantly raise the resilience of the international financial system and to promote sound risk-taking activities. The standards will see financial institutions holding larger amounts of capital, including buffers which can be drawn down as losses occur. At the same time, the standards will also require banking institutions to significantly strengthen their liquidity and funding positions. Collectively, these standards aim to strengthen the banking institutions’ ability to continue to support orderly credit intermediation, particularly during periods of instability. While carrying more equity entails greater costs of capital for banks especially in the short-term, this investment will support a more stable financial system and overall global economy as well as build the confidence of consumers and investors, particularly during periods of stress. In view of these imperatives, this is a timely juncture for the industry to reflect and take charge of the efforts to rebuild and strengthen the foundations for more sustainable finance. Critical to this is the realisation that the creation of long-term shareholder value is consistent with, and not at odds with prudent risk taking and responsible business practices. Indeed, financial institutions with a regional footprint in ASEAN have the potential to contribute to the development of the financial systems in countries where they operate. There will be tremendous payoffs to be reaped from pursuing such sustainable strategies.

Esteemed participants, In terms of the structural transformation programs, financial sector, owing to its significance, is the sector that is most and fastest affected from the process, as well as being the leading sector in terms of supporting the process. Accordingly, further steps need to be taken in this sector in the process of falling inflation. Dear audience, The third factor I will be conveying to you today within the context of the effects of falling inflation on the economy is that, together with falling and foreseeable inflation, prices resume their signaling task in the economy and thus their roles as indicators in the allocation of resources. Departing from the example of Turkey, as we all know from the past experience of chronic inflation, consumers used to be inclined to make less price and quality controls, and attach less significance to diversity in their choices of goods. Producers on the other hand, used to set their profit margins freely to a large extent, paying little attention to their pricing, the costs and productivity. They also showed little interest in making investments for increasing the diversity of their products by adding them new ones. As a result of this structure, the quality of production declined in time, global competitiveness of our country weakened and integration with the world economy was delayed. Nevertheless, with the absolute as well as the relative prices resuming their signaling task following the decline in inflation, the behavior patterns of producers and consumers in Turkey began to change.
On the Committee itself various suggestions have been made: to extend the terms of appointment of members of the MPC, to make those longer terms non-renewable, and to appoint people with more diverse backgrounds. By far the most fundamental of these suggestions is the proposal to appoint representatives of different industries or regions to the Committee, as opposed to monetary policy experts. That would change the nature of the debate and undermine the mutual confidence of members of the Committee in each other if it were felt that some were representing a specific interest group. With experience of the MPC, I think that this argument has come to be accepted. The proposal that the minutes of MPC meetings should include more description of individual views I discussed earlier. The Committee has been opposed to such a change for the reasons I gave. In its early days the Committee was sensitive to the view that the minutes, then published six weeks after the meeting, should be published earlier, and it shortened that lag to 13 days in October 1998. The forecast process has attracted much attention, and was discussed at length in the Kohn Report. Presenting the forecast in terms of a fan chart, in order to highlight the balance of risks to the outlook, has proved successful. But it has proved more difficult to explain the role of a projection conditioned on the assumption of constant official interest rates.

Third, the votes on the MPC are transparent, and hence members can be held accountable. The merit of individual accountability is that each individual in the group has a genuine incentive to reach a good decision. This aspect leads us directly into my second question. 2. Second, does it matter that there are differences of view among Committee members? From the outset, commentators have been unable to resist labelling members of the Committee as either ‘hawks’ or ‘doves’. I have argued before that it makes no sense to use these descriptions because each member of the Committee has the same objective. Members of the MPC cannot entertain closet views about their desired inflation rate because they will be held personally accountable for their judgments about the level of interest rates necessary to meet the mandated inflation target. As circumstances change, it is easy to imagine that ‘hawks’ shall be ‘doves’ and ‘doves’ shall be ‘hawks’. But that is not to say that differences of opinion do not, and should not, exist amongst committee members. If part of the reason for the improvement of groups over individuals is their pooling of knowledge, then differences of opinion during the discussion that takes place at each MPC meeting should be central to the Committee’s performance. As The Economist put it back in 1998 (when there 4 were only eight serving members): 4  Economist, 18 April 1998, p. 28.