samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But I think that the situation on the Swedish housing market is still very uncertain. Weaker developments than in our forecast pose a significant risk to the Swedish economy. Those components of domestic demand that would be negatively affected first of all would be housing investment and household consumption. But as I am here at the Swedish Property Federation today, I would also like to mention that the weaker developments on the housing market since last autumn have not escaped housing developers. You can read more about this in an article in our Financial Stability Report, published in November. 16 An important conclusion we can draw from developments in recent years is that housing developers have burdened households with substantial risks during the building process. In  16  See “The new production of housing and financial stability”, article in Financial Stability Report 2018:2. 12 [13]  the prevailing market situation, these risks have come to the fore, causing households’ interest to wane, especially when move-in dates to new homes are far-off in the future. This will require modified business models in order to rekindle the interest of prospective house-buyers in newly built homes. My assessment is also that newly built homes are currently far too expensive for many groups. Cheaper new builds and better turnover in the housing stock could help untangle this knot. There are of course many uncertainty factors not only surrounding future economic developments, but also surrounding inflation.

But at the macro-economic level what we have to remember is that every dollar earned is a dollar available to be spent or reinvested back into the economy, whoever earns it. So, at the macroeconomic level, competition – the driver of economic progress – is a positive sum game; it increases the potentially sustainable growth rate nationally, regionally, and internationally. How far each country individually is able to take advantage of this increased potential depends upon how flexibly it can adapt to changes in comparative productive advantage – which in turn depends upon the supply–side characteristics of our separate economies. But there is no doubt that we all stand to benefit. That is why I have always believed fundamentally in the principle of free trade and open capital markets which enhance  1  BIS Review 54/1999  competition. It is why I have always welcomed the rapid growth we have seen in the emerging market economies – and why incidentally I look forward to China’s accession to the WTO. We cannot then sensibly aim to obstruct structural changes. But nor can we realistically hope to avoid all shorter-term fluctuations, associated with the business cycle for example or as a result simply of random shocks. What we are looking for is a stable macro-economic framework for the economy as a whole, which will help to moderate rather than aggravate shorter-term fluctuations, and one within which change can occur in response to longer-term real economic factors, undistorted by unnecessary, erratic, movements particularly in nominal values.
Thank you, and I wish all of you a fruitful and engaging conference ahead. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches

There are structural vulnerabilities in the financial system caused by both of these problems in the non-bank world. And the dash for cash episode was the sort of stress event that nearly caused the problems to crystallise in a big way, and arguably would have done so but for the rapid intervention on a substantial scale by the authorities. Lessons from the March 2020 “dash for cash” episode Let me put this into the context of the role of money market funds and what happened during the dash for cash. I will describe the events using evidence from sterling money markets, and then draw on some broader evidence (the UK story is very well described and assessed in Hauser (2020)). The dash for cash was, of course, a broader financial system – and indeed economy wide – phenomenon, driven by the underlying health shock and its economic implications. Nonetheless, money market funds are an important part of the dash for cash story because they seek to bridge between the desire of investors for immediate liquidity (in other words a cash or depositlike desire) and the desire of the banks, in which they invest a sizeable part of the funds, for term funding in the form of commercial paper or certificates of deposit. They are therefore carrying out a form of maturity transformation which in times of stress can become prone to runs.
7  In terms of communication, however, there may be some differences that are significant in practice. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  on the risks one wishes to counteract. A monetary policy that leans against the wind therefore gives little “benefit”, while the “cost” in the form of poorer price stability and macroeconomic stability is high. On the other side of the debate it has been pointed out that it is not necessarily a disadvantage that monetary policy is blunt, in the sense that it has a broad impact on the economy, as it then “gets in all of the cracks” and is difficult to circumvent. 8 What the benefits and costs of using monetary policy to counteract financial imbalances will be is also an empirical question. Here, as well, the problem is that the practical experiences of a monetary policy that leans against the wind are still limited. Should the level of the inflation target be changed? Another question being discussed is whether the level of the central banks’ inflation targets should be changed. The debate since the financial crisis has primarily concerned whether the target should be raised, but most recently there have also been arguments for lowering the target. Should central banks lower their inflation targets? It appears to be mainly in the debate in Sweden that arguments in favour of lowering the target have been put forward recently. 9 But they have also arisen in other countries to some extent.

The introduction of the euro has been a strong catalyst for mergers and acquisitions in the euro area. The European M & A market seems to be amongst the most dynamic in the world: with operations totalling over 1,000 billion euros in 1999, it is now catching up on the American market. The euro has brought about significant changes for participants in financial markets and has fostered structural developments in the financial industry. This is true both on euro-area money markets and on capital markets. From the beginning of Stage Three of EMU, cross-border transactions in the money market increased so as to represent more than 50% of the total activity in all segments of the money market. The unsecured deposit interbank market—which is mostly concentrated on shorter maturities—exhibits a  4  BIS Review 11/2001  very high degree of integration. The integration of interest-rate markets within the euro area is a key achievement which deserves to be underscored. EONIA and EURIBOR have provided the market with uniform benchmarks fully accepted by all market participants. The diagnosis is the same in the shortterm derivatives market, whose integration, standardisation and depth have increased. This is reflected, for instance, in the scale of daily transactions and the huge expansion of the euro interestrate swap market. These structural changes in the euro area money market have generated significant moves by market participants, who have concentrated their euro cash management activity and have benefited from better liquidity on the secondary market.
Finally, emerging/developing economies have been subject to wide swings in financing from abrupt withdrawal of funds in 2008 to significant inflows recently, and as a result they are starting to implement capital controls. The risk is that these may spread unless financial flows become less erratic and more long-term and stable. 7. Concern about commodity bubble and high-yielding products  Over the past several decades, the world financial system has produced a seemingly endless series of bubbles (e.g. the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble and the Yen carry trade). Each bubble had its apologists before it burst, who argued that it was rational and that “this time is different.” Historically, commodities (apart from oil) were in a downward trend for over 100 years until 2002. Since then the entire decline has been reversed and commentators are talking about a “Paradigm Shift.” Compared to historical trends, commodities are as over-priced as the US stock market during the “tech bubble” of 2000. The parabolic rise in commodity prices has serious consequences and it is open to question whether the world economy is strong enough to support their continued gains. It is particularly damaging to inflation and growth in emerging market economies which are relatively heavy users of commodities. With interest rates at current low levels, investors are looking for high-yield products; but high yield brings high risks as well.

The tendencies that I have described can be problematic in their own right but in no way fatal, as the experience of New Zealand and others attests to. It is when they interact badly with other economic and financial risks that can face small, open and financially integrated economies – such as the global credit cycle, domestic financial vulnerabilities, policy conflicts, and asymmetric shocks – that we can have a lethal cocktail. This was the case in Iceland. To demonstrate this, let me take a stylised example which is, I admit, heavily influenced by the experience of my own country. A small, open, and financially integrated economy develops a positive output gap that is larger than in the rest of the world. The economy is booming and is seen as a good investment by outside investors. This occurs in a situation where the global credit cycle is in a strong upswing. The result is capital inflows and upward pressures on the exchange rate. The country has a floating exchange rate and has adopted a flexible inflation targeting regime. Monetary policy therefore reacts by raising interest rates due to the risks that the booming economy poses for future inflation. This, however, widens the interest rate differential vis-à-vis the rest of the world and sucks in even more capital through carry trade and other channels. The currency therefore appreciates further. This helps to limit inflation, both directly, through lower imported inflation in terms of domestic currency, and indirectly, by directing demand abroad.
Thomas Jordan: The significance of academic research and teaching for the Swiss model for success Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Dies academicus, University of Bern, Bern, 1 December 2018. * * * The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank's website (www.snb.ch). The success of Switzerland in recent decades has largely been driven by the strong performance of its education system, which is crucial for economic prosperity, social cohesion and equality of opportunity overall. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), too, sets great store by a good education system, including universities that can hold their own against international competition. Many of the staff recruited by the SNB are destined for roles in which a university degree is a prerequisite. In addition, the SNB maintains close ties with the academic world, so that the latest related research findings can be incorporated into monetary policy decision-making. The competition of ideas stimulates and creates incentives for higher-quality monetary policy. This pursuit of excellence in academic education should not just be aimed at research, however; it should also target teaching. Experience has shown that foundation courses have a lasting effect on students' attitudes to certain topics. Teaching lays the basis for subsequent academic specialisation and career choice. As role models, professors carry a heavy responsibility.

The responsibility to address these flaws rests with the banks themselves. Many industry leaders have initiated reform programs within their firms. It is important to keep the momentum going. Reform requires relentless and sustained effort: from the top of an institution to its most junior employees, and across all of the institution’s business activities. Reform must include the full scope of an employee’s career, beginning with recruiting and continuing with annual performance management, compensation and promotion decisions. We in the official sector will be looking to the industry to fulfill its end of the bargainto act consistent with the public well-being, to value long-term stability over short-term gain, and to take account of all stakeholders in making decisions. Thank you for your time and attention. 15  4  https://www.newyorkfed.org/governance-and-culture-reform/index.html. BIS central bankers’ speeches
The ECB is obliged and can be trusted to always fulfil its role and deliver on its Treaty mandate, and this is above all to secure price stability in the euro area as a whole, which consists of 17 countries. And there are clear limits to what the central bank is entitled or even able to do. It is impossible for the ECB to provide guarantees or assurances concerning future funding amounts or interest rates over the medium term. Certain tasks should and can in Europe only be dealt with by the Member States, and not by the ECB or the Central Bank of Ireland. Our common objective therefore must be to reduce over time the reliance of Irish banks on central bank funding and in particular on the emergency liquidity assistance. The Irish government has the capacity to further consolidate and implement the necessary reforms, so that there will be no lingering doubts about the sustainability of government debt. I am thus confident that Ireland will continue to fully implement the necessary adjustment and reforms, and that on this basis, Member States will continue to show solidarity towards Ireland. I understand that Minister Noonan has said that champagne corks will be popped on the night the Troika leaves Dublin. As long as Ireland continues to implement fully its programme and preserves its credibility as a State that honours all its obligations, I think that day will come in the not too long future, at the end of this programme in 2013.

I would like to make it very clear that I by no means have the intention to lecture an Irish audience on the best way forward for Ireland as regards the fiscal compact. This is to be decided by the Irish voters in the upcoming referendum at the end of May. From an ECB perspective, a crucial element in overcoming the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is to regain confidence of market participants in the sustainability of public finances. Therefore we believe it to be of utmost importance that all euro area members adopt – and implement – the fiscal compact. For the Irish economy to achieve full fitness it is of course also necessary to heal the wounds that caused so many of today’s problems. Let me therefore turn attention to Ireland’s financial sector. 3. The financial sector and the role of the ECB  The role of the Eurosystem in Ireland over recent years, and more specifically that of the ECB, has often been misunderstood. Sometimes, it has been misrepresented. I would like to take this opportunity to set the record straight. Relative to the size of the economy, no other euro area country has received so much support from the Eurosystem. And no other institution has provided more help to Ireland than the ECB. EU/IMF programme finances combined are EUR 67.5 billion in total. Eurosystem liquidity support – to all of Ireland’s eligible banks – has often been more than double that amount.
Therefore, as a token of their appreciation to UNZABECA, they have made a generous donation in the sum of K9.5 million. This donation, I hope, will go a long way in supporting UNZABECA programmes. However, may I caution you to manage these funds prudently and ensure that they are applied towards the attainment of the intended UNZABECA objectives. Please, do not be wasteful now that UNZABECA coffers are liquid! In conclusion, as Patron of UNZABECA, I look forward to being involved in UNZABECA activities. In this regard, I undertake to promote your activities, at any slightest opportunity, to other institutions, which would benefit from your services. With these few remarks, it is now my honour and privilege to declare the Bank of Zambia UNZABECA Lecture Series officially closed. I thank you. 2  BIS Review 74/2004

The total number of listed companies in the euro zone has increased steadily during the 1990s. This development also applied to the 'growth' stock exchanges. For instance, the number of companies listed on the pan-European stock exchange alliance EURO.NM increased by almost 100 per cent in 1999. It is not so strange that Europe cannot measure up to the USA on the financial markets, as the integration process has not come as far here. Whereas the USA has a large, integrated market, Europe has many small ones, which are also covered by different regulations. On the other hand, this means that there is great potential within Europe's financial sector. Intensive work is currently in progress to realise this potential. This includes the EU countries adopting a plan of action for financial services, that should be fully implemented by 2005. During the Stockholm European Council last weekend, the Heads of State and Government adopted the Lamfalussy Committee's proposals for a more effective legislation process in the field of finance in the EU. This was a very important decision. Today it takes an average of three years for the EU to make decisions on new regulations. Such a slow process is evidently a problem in the financial field, where development is otherwise very rapid. A regulatory system that does not correspond to reality can lead to both increased risks in the financial system and lower economic growth, as the finance markets' contribution to the rest of the economy will be lower than it could be.
In a comparison of the profile in 2016 with the profile in 2005 and 2010, the most striking feature is that interest burdens rise in many age groups. The age profile itself is little changed. A similar chart showing the distribution of higher interest expenses across income deciles would have shown the same picture. Even though many households will feel the effects of higher interest expenses, the increase will be manageable for most people. The share of households with high debt relative to income, low debt-servicing capacity and a high loan-to-value ratio is small, and lower than just a few years ago (Norges Bank (2017)). Chart: Higher bank deposits dampen some of the effect of higher debt How quickly an interest rate increase will lead to lower growth in consumption also depends on the size of households’ financial buffers. Buffers in the form of bank savings can be drawn down if interest expenses rise, reducing the need to adjust consumption. Even though some households have little in the way of financial buffers, many households’ buffers are larger than just a few years ago. Despite the rise in debt ratios between 2010 and 2016, an interest rate increase will lay claim to a smaller share of bank deposits, particularly for the groups with the highest level of net debt. This will counteract some of the effect a higher level of debt has had on 6/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  the impact of an interest rate increase via the cash-flow channel.

Another example is the recent agreement between the National Statistics Institute, the Tax Revenue Service, the Social Security and the Banco de España, as holders of a significant amount of administrative information and of granular data collected for statistical purposes, for the joint design of a collaborative data system to which researchers will have access, provided that the information to be used is for scientific purposes in the public interest. The purpose of this agreement is also to promote the future inclusion of other institutions that hold administrative records or other granular databases of research interest. It is our obligation as the participating authorities to put this agreement swiftly into practice, and to establish what might be an unprecedented landmark in information availability for economic research and evaluation purposes in Spain. The need to improve the economic and financial education of the population Quality data, technical ability, and analytical rigour and independence would thus seem to be the necessary ingredients for setting in place an assessment culture leading to the evidence-based formulation of public policies. In my view, this recipe will be like one for bread without yeast. A third key ingredient is needed: an appropriate economic and financial education for the public at large. With citizens able to critically internalise in their individual economic and financial decisions both the fundamental results of these independent evaluations and the various benefits and costs associated with different courses of action, it would be easier to set an assessment culture in place.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) payment system, led by the Reserve Bank of South Africa, was launched in 1996. Following the initiatives by the World Bank and the Center for Latin American Monetary Authorities (CEMLA), the Western Hemisphere Payments & Securities Settlement Initiative was launched in 1999. In 2004, the World Bank and the regional central banks launched the Commonwealth Independent States Payments and Securities Initiative to develop the payment systems in the former Soviet Union countries. In 2005, the Arab Payments and Securities Settlement Initiative was launched with the cooperation of 22 members and with the support of the Arab Fund. These are some of the successful regional initiatives. All these initiatives have a common vision to ensure that reforms result in efficient and effective payment systems built on international best practice. Within that vision, they assist individual member countries to prepare domestic payment system development strategies and define a coordinated regional approach to ensure safe cross border payments, taking into consideration the implications for trade and investment activities. Another common feature of these initiatives is the availability of well functioning real time gross settlement systems operated either by central banks or, in some cases, by other operators. This is the platform that links the central banks in the group. These regional initiatives have also built institutional capacities within the national economies, as well as in the region, to sustain continued payment system development.

We need to assess these systems against some benchmarks or international norms which would help to increase efficiency, safety and the integrity at national and regional level. In doing so, it may also be useful to look at the benchmarks set by the regional initiatives such as CEMLA, SADEC, CIS, API or other advanced payment systems. Third, the framework need not aim to introduce or formalize too extravagant payment mechanisms for the SAARC countries at this stage, but it should focus on the need to elevate the national payment systems of member countries to a level capable of facilitating present and future trade and investment flows and mitigating risks in cross border transactions. This task can be facilitated by setting up National Payment Councils (NPCs) in their own countries and complying with common standards, harmonization policies and international best practice. Fourth, the framework should broadly include the following: • •  • •  A time targeted vision acceptable to all members. A clear mission accompanied by a statement of the roles and commitment and responsibilities of all members. Policy objectives necessary to facilitate the present and future trade and investment flows within the region. Funding sources, budgetary allocations and an appropriate subscription formula. Guiding principles for mitigating risks and reaping benefits. 7. Road map and way forward  •  If SAARC central bank representatives consent to establish a SAARC regional payment initiative, it will be necessary to appoint an apex body which is capable of taking the reforms forward.