samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Finally, there will be an additional effect associated with the public and private reconstruction efforts. The ultimate impact on growth and inflation will  BIS Review 61/2010  3  depend, among other factors, on the magnitude, composition and timing of those efforts, on the sources of funding that are used and on the focus of the related expenditures. As for the size of the loss in productive capital stock, the Board’s working assumption for this Report’s baseline scenario is that the catastrophe destroyed 3 percent of the economy’s net capital stock. Such an estimate, which is detailed in a box inside the Report, is based on the damage survey published by the government on March 23 and on the historical ratio between the gross value and the net value of the capital stock. To clarify this calculation, it is important to explain how this capital stock is measured. First, the gross capital stock equals the value of assets used in the productive process, valued “as new”. In other words, the nominal gross value of the capital stock can be proxied by the replacement cost. Second, the net value of the capital stock is the gross value of the capital stock minus the assets’ depreciation. This distinction between gross and net value of capital is important, because the latter – the net value – is what matters when measuring the economy’s productive capacity and, therefore, trend GDP, the output gap and inflationary pressures.

At a time when our monetary policy was working hard to prevent the propagation of the inflationary shock to other prices, we suffered the onset of an international financial crash of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The sharp fall in demand, caused largely by a crisis of confidence and an unprecedented rise in volatility and uncertainty, caused a severe downturn in the world economy and in Chile. The downturn was especially strong in the last quarter of 2008 and the first four months of 2009. The drop in output during that period was determinant in the recession we saw last year. Macroeconomic policies reacted strongly. However, they could do little to counteract the immediate effects of this phenomenon, not only because of the lags with which they operate, but especially because of the sudden nature of the collapse in demand. Still, and as we have previously claimed, a monetary policy based on a flexible inflation targeting regime – that allows for the accommodation of shocks over a reasonable period of time –, a floating exchange rate, a solid financial system and a fiscal policy that saved during the good times, were key to ensuring a rapid and sustainable economic recovery. Our macroeconomic policy scheme allowed us implementing an unprecedented stimulus, which has had important positive effects on output, within a context of well contained inflationary pressures. The national economy began recovering by the middle of the second quarter of 2009.
The risk may arise from differences in fiscal positions even though these are to be constrained through the Stability Pact. Or it may result from economic shocks of some sort that have a bigger impact on some countries than on others. The rise in oil prices in the early 1970s or German reunification are classic examples. BIS Review 23/1998  -2So the risk of divergent monetary policy needs within the euro area is real. And the damage it could cause if serious tensions between member countries were to emerge is substantial, because alternative adjustment mechanisms, such as labour migration or fiscal redistribution, that exist within individual countries, and which help to alleviate the similar regional tensions that arise at the national level, are not well-developed at the pan-European level. The Maastricht Treaty, of course, recognised this risk, and the famous convergence criteria were designed precisely as a means of reducing the risk to manageable proportions by requiring that, before they join the euro club, countries should have achieved at least a minimum degree of macro-economic convergence - demonstrating their commitment to macro-economic discipline through both fiscal consolidation and monetary policy directed at effective price, and exchange rate, stability. And there is no doubt that all European Union member states have made huge progress towards macro-economic stability over the past few years. The betting in financial markets is therefore that when, in early May, the Heads of State come to make their decision, a broadly based euro will indeed go ahead.

Valuations lead lending by around a year, with a correlation coefficient of around 0.75. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  One way of slowing that pro-cyclical spiral would be to base lending decisions not on spot, but on medium-term or sustainable valuations. Any ramping-up of property prices above their sustainable value would not then automatically give the appearance of safety and thereby encourage looser credit conditions. That, in a nutshell, is the aim of the recommendation in the “Vision” document. Needless to say, there is further work to be done by the industry to make these proposals operational. The very first minutes of the Forum highlighted property statistics and valuations as two areas where greatest improvement was needed. Twenty years on, that remains the case today. A continued effort will be needed by the industry to complete the job. Next, regulators. For much of the period prior to the financial crisis, credit and asset price cycles were only of interest to policymakers to the extent they posed a direct risk to inflation targets or to the solvency of individual firms. Were a bubble to blow, then the most likely response was a combination of benign neglect on the upswing and lower interest rates in the downswing. The role of policy was to “mop” after the flood. That orthodoxy has been sunk by the crisis. After perhaps the largest credit boom in human history, central banks globally are still frantically mopping with unprecedented degrees of monetary stimulus.
Against this backdrop, an exhaustive review of the various budget expenditure items should be undertaken in order to identify areas where there is room for efficiency improvements, as the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has done in recent years. 35  Turning to taxation, improving revenue-raising capacity and tax system efficiency should also be a priority, for which comparisons with other European countries can act as a guide.9 Once again, the review under way by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility of the numerous tax benefits in place should be useful for streamlining their use and enhancing their efficiency. It also seems reasonable to continue exploring, in a coordinated fashion internationally, certain possible tax reforms that have been the topic of recent discussions. Included here is the review of the taxation levied on certain multinationals, with a view to preventing the use of aggressive tax planning strategies to move tax bases to lower-taxation jurisdictions. In any event, irrespective of the structure in terms of receipts and expenditure, the anchoring of the gradual process of budgetary consolidation will be determined in the medium term by the prescriptions of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). In this respect, it is estimated that, under certain plausible assumptions,10 public debt will tend to decrease gradually as a percentage of GDP in all of the Banco de España’s scenarios outlined above. This is assuming that, once the effects of the crisis have faded, the structural deficit continues to fall in terms similar to those required under the SGP, i.e.

Dimitar Radev: Bank supervision and resolution within the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism Publication by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, in the Quarterly Bulletin of the Association of Banks in Bulgaria, issue 62, October 2020. * * * As of 1 October 2020, Bulgaria joined the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) by establishing close cooperation between the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The accession to the SSM comes as a result of Decision (ЕU) 2020/1015, made by the ECB on 24 June 2020. With its accession to the SSM, Bulgaria also joined the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). The SSM and the SRM are the two currently operating blocks of the so-called Banking Union in the euro area. Accession to the Banking Union was a precondition for the inclusion of the Bulgarian Lev into the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). 1. Participation in the Single Supervisory Mechanism The SSM is the name of the banking supervision system in the euro area. It comprises the ECB and the national supervisory authorities of participating Member States. Applicable to Member States outside the euro area is the so-called regime of close cooperation between the relevant national supervisory authority and the ECB – the mechanism established for Bulgaria. The main objectives of the SSM are to ensure the safety and soundness of the European banking system, to enhance financial integration and implementation of consistent supervision.
An important outcome is shown in this chart. The chart compares two different paths for consumption during a recession. The blue line shows the average path, while the yellow line shows the path following a period of high debt growth. The results confirm that high debt growth ahead of a recession leads to a deeper downturn. It also takes longer for the economy to recover. 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Chart: Monetary policy and financial stability When financial imbalances are building up, the probability of a deep recession may increase. This is illustrated in this chart by the blue lines. The uncertainty bands around inflation and the output gap are highly assymetrical. Monetary policy can dampen vulnerabilities by keeping the interest rate somewhat higher than would otherwise have been the case – in other words, by “leaning against the wind”. This policy is illustrated by the red lines. By keeping the interest rate higher, the risk of a deep economic downturn is reduced. The uncertainty bands are more narrow and symmetric. But this policy also entails a short-term cost: capacity utilisation is lower, and inflation may stay below target. The aim of “leaning against the wind” is to achieve an improved path for inflation, output and employment over time. This is in line with our central bank mandate. Flexible inflation targeting with a sufficiently long horizon should take financial stability into account if the situation so allows and so warrants.

Today, on the basis of a Progress Report, we have reviewed the advances of the banking industry against the objectives set by the Eurosystem and we have identified the outstanding issues that need quickly to be addressed. A press release on this topic will be issued later on today. The Progress Report will be available on the ECB’s website shortly. 3  BIS Review 74/2000
BIS Review 38/1997  -7-  Diagram 3a  Real w ages and em ployed persons, EU and U SA, 1970-97 Index 1970=100 EU  170  USA  170  170  160  160  150  150  140  140  130  130  130  120  120  120  110  110  110  100  100  100  90  90  90  80  80  80  160  R e a l wa ges  150 140 130  E m ploy m ent  120  70  72  74  76  78  80  82  84  86  88  90  92  94  96  98  170 160 150  E m ploy m ent  140  110  R e a l wa ges  100 90 80  70  72  74  76  78  80  82  84  86  88  90  92  94  96  98  S ource : O E CD  As shown in Diagram 3a, since 1970 the average real wage in the United States has risen by a total of 15 per cent but by as much as 60 per cent in the EU area. The change in employment, as I mentioned earlier, has been the opposite.

Finally, the soon-to-be-implemented second phase of the financial sector master plan will further improve efficiency of the banking sector through reduction of regulatory costs, enhanced legal and information infrastructure, and new competition introduced in orderly manner through phased deregulation and liberalization. 2  BIS Review 118/2008  Fourth, the private sector has shown much resiliency and adaptability. For example, in response to the appreciation of the baht, exporters have made increasing uses of foreign exchange hedging instruments. At the same time, the increasingly diversified export market structure has provided Thai exporters with cushions against the current slowdown in major advanced economies. As another example but perhaps more relevant to today’s audience, our listed companies no longer over-leverage their balance sheets, turning instead to equity and retained earnings as major sources of funds. Fifth, Thailand is among the world’s top places when it comes to the ease of starting and operating businesses. The recent report, “Doing Business 2009,” by the World Bank upgraded Thailand by six places. Despite all the storms we have faced, we are now ranked at 13th place out of 181 countries (4th in Asia after Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan). According to the report, Thailand led other reformers in the region with improvements in four areas – Registering Property, Protecting Investors, Paying Taxes, and Trading across Borders. As investors, you may be interested to hear that one of the cited reform measures is amendments to the Thai Securities and Exchange Act to strengthen minority shareholder rights.
BIS Review 99/2010  3  Chart 2: World economic growth since 2000 Annual GDP growth rate, percent 6  Average 2000-08  5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2010 update  Turnaround in the UK economy Alongside this improvement in the international economy, the UK economy has also turned around since last summer. Business surveys and the labour market data have been suggesting a return to growth since the second half of last year. The official estimates of GDP still show a fairly modest recovery, starting in the final quarter of 2009 – though the estimates of real GDP growth that we currently have over the recovery period are very provisional and may indeed be revised in the future. That is what happened in the early 1990s recovery, where the picture we now have of growth in the early stages of that recovery – in 1992 and 1993 – are very different from the initial estimates. One of the concerns that the MPC had a year ago when policy was being loosened was the sharp fall in measures of nominal demand – the growth of spending in money terms, before adjusting for inflation. As the recession took hold, GDP and other measures of demand not only fell in real terms, but they fell in nominal or money terms too.

5 The evidence from the Bank of England’s Agents and recent employment surveys is that the labour market in the UK has stabilised and that labour demand in the private sector may have already started to pick up. Companies also seem to have adjusted quickly to a lower level of demand and activity in the recession, and the most recent surveys do not point to an unusually large margin of spare capacity remaining within firms. For example, the latest CBI survey shows 62% of manufacturers reporting some spare capacity – which is virtually in line with the average for the decade before the financial crisis. 6 The evidence on wages and prices is also consistent with the view that spare capacity is not exerting as much downward pressure on inflation as the MPC expected last summer. In the manufacturing sector, underlying wage growth is back up to the 4–5% level already, though is more subdued in the services sector. And after quite widespread pay freezes last year, the latest pay settlements data from Income Data Services show that the most popular range for pay settlements is currently 2–3%, which is where four out of ten pay settlements are now being struck. If the recovery continues and headline inflation remains relatively high, there may be a further upward drift in pay growth in the private sector, offsetting some of the downward pressure on wage growth from the public sector.
Despite global challenges, the Thai economy still carries on its recovery, with sound financial system and good macroeconomic stability. With fundamental strengths remaining in place, we expect a stronger and more resilient recovery going forward, especially through the legal reform initiatives that would ensure better governance, improve the distribution of income and economic opportunities, enhance productivity, and foster sustainability. Making all these happen will continue to be a challenging task and require continued efforts from all parties involved. We look forward to strengthening our business cooperation and partnership with our European friends and investors like yourselves in the years to come. Thank you for your kind attention. 8

The RM151 million project is a milestone achievement, being the first large-scale commercial development project on a waqf land in the country. Another important aspect in professionalising waqf management is instilling good governance. It is unfortunate that management of waqf has had some governance challenges. Efforts must be directed at strengthening its governance and management. Adequate internal controls have to be put in place, including risk management, internal and external audits, and compliance systems. Its standards of disclosure and transparency need to be at par with those of modern finance or of endowments in advanced economies. For a start, waqf authorities should provide high-quality disclosure and reporting of waqf activities to instil trust and confidence among the contributors and wider stakeholders. Contributors want to know where their contributions are going and how they are being spent. In this regard, the Waqf Fund collaboration between Islamic banks and the State Islamic Religious Councils provides a good mechanism for the financial sector to lend its expertise and share best practices on good governance and transparency practices in managing fund. Under the initiative, the Code of Governance and Transparency of Waqf Fund will be issued by AIBIM. This will act as guidance for more efficient and effective management of waqf and with higher governance and transparency practices, thus bringing waqf to the next level. Conclusion Waqf has played a significant socioeconomic role throughout history. Exciting potential lies within waqf, even today.
Moreover, the fact that the considerations are reported openly may help increase confidence in the assessments and conclusions. Consistency in monetary policy actions also increases confidence in the price stability target, which in turn should have a stabilising effect on inflation expectations. The role of predictability in monetary policy It is important the Riksbank is clear and explains the bases on which the interest rate decisions are made. As the effect of monetary policy on price developments has a time lag, the interest rate is changed on the basis of forecasts of future price developments. However, it is not always easy to interpret correctly what is happening in the economy. In recent years it has been difficult to find a clear relationship between the demand situation and inflation in Sweden. GDP growth was high from 1997 to the middle of 2000. Since then the growth in demand has been subdued. During 1997 and 1998 inflation fell, but the rate of price increase has tended to accelerate thereafter. At the same time, inflation expectations have remained at a relatively stable level. There are many explanations for this development and the Riksbank’s view has been described, for instance, in various Inflation Reports. Let me here expound some personal reflections on this issue. If the Riksbank’s monetary policy inspires confidence, inflation expectations will be established around the inflation target. This means that resource utilisation in the economy could vary slightly more, without having an immediate impact on inflation.

We are benefitting from strong demand for our exports – especially E&E and commodity-based products. Our diversified export products and markets will continue to support our export growth. Importantly, we are seeing increasing strength in domestic demand. Domestic spending, especially consumer expenditure is on the rise. In fact, retail sales, debit card transactions and consumer goods imports have exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The economy is also benefiting from a strengthening job market. While unemployment was at its peak of 5.3% in May 2020, it is now at 3.9%. Almost 26,000 new jobs were created in the first three months of this year, similar to pre-pandemic levels. Job vacancies and wages are also rising. This will further reinforce the recovery in domestic demand going forward. That said, there is some unevenness in the economic recovery. Certain segments continue to experience hardship and remain vulnerable. These include low-income households who are disproportionately affected by rising price pressures. The rise in food prices in particular, has affected this group to a larger extent. Improvement in employment for women and youth is also significantly slower. Indeed, rising prices is a global phenomenon. For Malaysia, the direct impact from elevated oil prices to headline inflation has been largely dampened by price controls on fuel and essential food items. Yet, there are still indirect effects from high global commodity prices, as they are a key driver of the rise in producers’ input costs.