samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
There is, of course, a circularity involved, since liquidity depends on valuation, fair value must be based on a market price, and the ability to price an asset itself depends on sufficient liquidity in the market. The difficulty to get out of this circularity in periods of stress is currently creating significant uncertainty. o  Hence a dependence of the whole market on the rating process. In a securitized world, investors heavily rely upon rating agencies to provide information about the risks attached to various instruments. These agencies have been strongly criticized recently. It is not my purpose to enter into any blame game. Suffice it to say that there has been a deep misunderstanding between investors and rating agencies as to the scope and true meaning of ratings. Most investors were not fully aware that rating did not encompass liquidity risk; nor did they realize that ratings for structured products were intrinsically more volatile than for more simple "plain vanilla" securities. The use of identical metrics for rating what are fundamentally different categories of assets certainly did not help and may have contributed to the confusion. o  Finally the turmoil has revealed the fragility of off-balance sheet structures and vehicles which underpinned securitization. Conduits, especially SIVs, were not built to absorb shocks. Their relationships with sponsor banks are sometimes very ambiguous.

Christian Noyer: Some thoughts on current financial turbulences Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Euro Fixed Income Forum, Paris, 4 December 2007. *  *  *  These are difficult times for policy makers. Financial turmoil has created macro economic uncertainties. Events are still unfolding. In those circumstances, I thought best to have a look at the dynamics driving recent turbulences; then describe potential consequences for the economy; finally make remarks on challenges for Central Banks and best ways to preserve and restore international financial stability. The dynamics of the crisis •  I will start with a paradox. By any measure, we are facing a huge shock in financial markets. Spreads in some segments of credit markets have widened with unprecedented speed and volatility. Even more significantly, interbank markets in large industrial countries have been severely disrupted, for the first time in fifty years, more disrupted in fact, and for a longer period, than after September 11, 2001. •  And yet, the losses themselves, while significant and spectacular for some institutions, would not seem to pose a major risk to the health of the financial system. Current median estimates put the direct cost of subprime defaults around 250 billions USD. This is a little less than one year of profits for the 40 major financial institutions in the world. Most notably, the turbulences occurred in a very favorable macro economic environment. Why is there such a disproportion between the cause and the effect?
Ravi Menon: MAS Marks 50 Years Serving Singapore Welcome remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at MAS 50th Anniversary Partners Appreciation Evening, 7 October 2021. * * * Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Chairman and Board Members of MAS, ESM Goh Chok Tong, Friends and Family of MAS Welcome to the MAS’ 50th Anniversary Partners Appreciation Evening – the first in a series of events to commemorate our Golden Jubilee. This evening is a time for thanksgiving. There are about 50 of us here at the MAS Building and about 800 friends and family joining us virtually. This includes our friends from the financial industry, consumer and governance groups, tripartite partners, academic institutions, and international organisations. And of course, our family – past and present staff and leaders of MAS and our colleagues in the broader Public Service. This is a special occasion for me personally. I joined MAS in 1987 and have spent most of my professional career here. So much of what I have learnt and how I have evolved, I owe it to the many bosses and colleagues I worked with in MAS over the years. MAS was already a highly competent organisation in 1987, and I have seen it grow over the decades to become what it is today – a central bank and financial regulator highly regarded among its international peers and the global financial industry.

Strengthen the continuing efforts aiming at market transparency Experience shows that uncertainty and incomplete information are determining factors in mimetic behaviour. These shortfalls in market transparency make mimetic behaviour seem rational to agents, who prefer to follow bigger participants, who are thought to be better informed, rather than develop their own analysis. Strengthening transparency therefore continues to be a priority. One of the objectives of transparency is to enable better differentiation of borrower creditworthiness. A key feature of mimetic behaviour is that all borrowers are "tarred with the same brush". So when one emerging economy encounters difficulties, all neighbouring countries, or countries that share common characteristics, are treated in the same way – regardless of their actual economic and financial situation. The same applies to businesses operating in the same economic sector. Transparency has substantially increased since the Asian crisis, thanks to a solid global consensus. Let us continue and reinforce these efforts. Take into account the medium and long-term perspective of some market participants Some investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, have to invest funds in order to enable their customers to build up wealth over the medium and long term, notably in preparation for retirement. Consequently, these types of investors are supposed to behave differently from traders and short-term investors, who are working on a very different time horizon. But at times it seems that they are all pushed to behave in much the same way, on the basis of a very short-term horizon.
This means that no shock that the economy will face in the future is incorporated into both the forecast and the decision. In other words, there is no way of avoiding the last-mentioned uncertainty connected with future shocks and neither the central bank nor the markets have any superior information about them. The uncertainty surrounding the first two mentioned points – the current state of the economy and future monetary policy – will be the heart of my remarks tonight. Being forecasters we all face uncertainty surrounding the knowledge about the current state of the economy. This current state should be thought of as a shortcut to all the inflationary determinants brought from the past, but due to the transmission lags having an impact on future developments. Every forecaster, and of course also the central bank, has his own opinion about the economy’s current state. One question arises immediately: Should the central bank look at market forecasts and use them as a source of information about the economy’s current state and for its decision-making? My answer is: Market forecasts should not be neglected. On the other hand they cannot be the core for decision-making and the central bank must rely primarily on its own structural modelling. This implies that despite all the transparency and communication, the central bank will – from time to time – have to surprise other forecasters and the market. BIS Review 10/2005  1  Let me now briefly explain why this is the case.

On the other hand, since the inflation forecast is not only an important internal decision-making tool, but also a crucial communication device, market participants have a good knowledge of the central bank’s forecast and can compare their own view on the economy with the central bank’s one. This implies that both the central bank and the market are well informed about each other’s forecast. It is clear that a huge portion of uncertainty is inherent to any practical forecasting. Moreover, from the monetary policy perspective this uncertainty is complicated by the fact that the results of today’s monetary policy action will be effective with a significant lag. On top of that, from the economic theory we know not only that today’s monetary policy decision is important, but also that the expectation about future monetary policy has an important impact. With a certain degree of simplification we can state that in general any future value of inflation depends on three main factors. These are the current state of the economy and its underlying inflationary pressures, current and future monetary policy actions and, of course, future economic shocks. Consequently, the surrounding uncertainty can also be divided into similar parts. Let me first shortly address the last point, something we can call the “shocks” uncertainty. It is necessary to admit that both today’s central bank forecast and today’s central bankers’ decision are deterministic from this point of view.
In turn, credit institutions provide financing to customers, trusting that they will repay those funds on the terms agreed. Likewise, customers conduct all their business with their banks because they trust them not to sell or reveal any information they have on them as customers. Unfortunately, the bank crisis weakened the general public’s trust in credit institutions. Some strategies followed by certain banks may have made them less customer-centric. I am thinking, for example, of the incentive schemes based, perhaps to excess, on growing business rather than incrementing customer loyalty. In addition, the lack of good practices in the selling of bank products and services has clearly played some part in this loss of trust. One of the most important future challenges we face is to restore and strengthen the industry’s reputation both with investors and customers. The first step to achieve this must be to make simplicity and accuracy a priority in all communications with customers. This includes aspects such as improving the language that is used in relations with customers, refining selling policies and promoting transparency. Allow me, in conclusion, to expand on these points a little further. First, the use of language. The names and descriptions of bank products must not be misleading as to their return and risk characteristics, nor must they be used as misleading advertising tools. Accordingly, terms that offer a false sense of security as to the return or interest that may be obtained must be avoided.

The need to improve the use of language is even more pressing, bearing in mind that the dialogue between banks and their customers is not, shall we say, a dialogue between equals. In this respect, since 2008 both the Banco de España and the National Securities Market Commission (the CNMV) have made great efforts with a view to improving financial knowledge among the general public through the Financial Education Plan. The initiatives taken in this period, to cite just a couple, include the launch of the Finance for All portal (www.finanzasparatodos.com) and the project to include financial education in the school syllabus. A second key aspect of this process is to improve selling practices. Financial institutions have made advances in the service they offer and the resources they dedicate to the monitoring of regulatory compliance. But greater efforts are needed to ensure that bank customers – banks’ main assets – are able to understand the terms of the transactions concerned (clauses of agreements, the cost of services provided, etc.). In this respect, greater zeal is required to ensure that customers receive appropriate precontractual information, and the sale of products to customers whose profile does not fit the product in question must be eradicated. 6/7  Lastly, with regard to transparency, and as I have indicated, banks must be clear about the cost of the services they offer and pass on those costs to bank customers in appropriate fashion. To that end, the Banco de España is stepping up its activities relating to supervision of banking conduct.
FAITH AND WISDOM It is very important not to ignore your spiritual wellbeing. It is what will make you a whole being. I will end by sharing with you a scripture passage from the Paul’s Second letter to Timothy Chapter 2:22–25 “Have no part at all in the wrong things that young men like to do. Believe. Have love. Follow what is right. Live at peace. Do these things along with others who have a clean heart and talk to God.”  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

Allow me to thank you once again for the work and devotion you exhibited over the course of this year. I strongly believe that the truthfulness and objectivity in reporting economic and financial news will continue to accompany you in fulfilling your duty in the coming year. I reaffirm that the Bank of Albania will continue be a transparent institution, ready to provide opinions and assessments as necessary in all public debates related to the performance of our economy and financial markets. A certificate of this commitment and achievement of the Bank of Albania in the communication with the public is the ranking first of the Bank of Albania among all the banks of Central, Eastern and South-eastern countries, for very active pubic communication, 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  in the last report: “Focus on the European Economic Integration” for the second quarter of 2021, published by the National Bank of Austria. Dear guests, The Bank of Albania continues to focus scrupulously on financial education and research considering it a crucial pillar of its activity. They are seen as the foundations for increasing the social-economic development and welfare of the citizens of Albania. From this point of view, I kindly invite you to share together a special moment of this meeting: the traditional ceremony for the Governor’s Award for the Best Diploma. The Bank of Albania for this 15th year ceremony in a raw has selected and valued three scientific works amid all the presented researches by students graduated in Albanian and abroad.
The only effect is liable to be increased uncertainty about the future. The criticism, which presupposed that economic agents are rational, also concerned the labour market. In that the Phillips curve disregards a central explanatory variable – inflation expectations – it is not stable over time. A demand stimulus that pushes inflation up erodes real wage levels. Employees will therefore demand compensation for the price increases and the attendant loss of purchasing power. That means that the additional employment which the stimulus was designed to generate will never materialise. Moreover, Keynesian economic policy had already been criticised in the 1930s on the grounds that stimulating demand in a downturn is considerably easier than tightening policy in an upswing. Economic developments in Sweden from the 1970s onwards provided plenty of support for Keynesianism’s critics. Inflation rose at the same time as keeping total unemployment down proved increasingly difficult. Public spending expanded continuously and particularly in downward phases. Government debt grew even though tax pressure rose. A fundamental loss of competitiveness was countered with repeated devaluations. Back to price stability In a number of industrialised countries, economic policy was realigned in the years around 1980. The aim was to provide a good foundation for stable growth by keeping inflation low. In Sweden the corresponding realignment did not occur until the turn of the 1980s. After almost two decades of high inflation, the costs were considerable. The financial excesses that had characterised the late 1980s in particular were ruthlessly exposed when the inflation bubble burst.

Lars Heikensten: Stabilisation policy - experiences and challenges Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Swedish Taxpayers Association, 80th anniversary, Stockholm International Fair, 4 October 2001. *  *  *  First of all, congratulations on your anniversary. For an 80-year-old you look relatively fresh. The organisation I represent first saw the light of day 333 years ago, though despite appearances I haven’t been there from the start. Today I shall be dwelling a good deal on the past to see what lessons we can draw from 80 years of stabilisation policy. Economic developments impose new policy requirements. Over the years, the instruments and objectives of economic policy have been put to the test and renewed in the light of experience. I shall be taking you on a conducted tour of the business cycles to see what they can teach us about the current situation. Strong belief in spontaneous recovery Let me start in 1921, the year in which Marcus Wallenberg Senior initiated what subsequently became the Swedish Taxpayers Association. That was in a period when both economic growth and inflation were fluctuating widely. Not counting wars and bad harvests, the crisis Sweden went through was the deepest in modern times. When trade picked up after World War One and demand grew, prices had risen sharply. The strong economic upswing led in time to overheating, with shortages of fuel, raw materials and labour.
Ravi Menon: Basics for smart finance – common standards and seamless data Closing remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the SIBOS Conference, Singapore, 15 October 2015. *  *  *  Mr Yawar Shah, Chairman, SWIFT Mr Gottfried Leibbrandt, CEO, SWIFT Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. A. Revolution in communications  “What hath God wrought?” read the first telegraphic message sent by Samuel Morse on 24th May, 1844. The telegraph marked a revolution in communications at the time. •  Transatlantic telegraph cables cut communications between America and Europe from about 10 days – the time it took for steam ships to sail across the Atlantic – to a matter of minutes. •  In fact, the mid-19th century leaps in transport and communications technologies ushered in the first phase of economic and financial globalisation. Ground-breaking as the telegraph was, a text message that takes minutes to arrive will be considered glacial by today’s standards. It will certainly not be able to support the frenetic pace of communications in the global financial system. Thankfully, we have SWIFT. Last year, there were 5.6 billion messages carried globally on SWIFT’s network. •  Close to half the messages related to international payments, which lies at the heart of global banking. •  Technology has transformed cross-border finance. Smart Financial Centre It is MAS’s conviction that innovation and technology will be critical to the future growth and success of Singapore’s financial sector.

In particular, mashing together diverse data sets offers the possibility of new types of insights. New software algorithms crunch the enlarged Big Data sets to make more reliable predictions on repayment and hence improve performance of loan portfolios. •  For example, a lender to small businesses requires access to the company’s bank and credit card accounts, to constantly monitor the company’s cash flow and hence ability to repay the loan. Application programming interfaces Despite the greater availability of data and the possibilities for harnessing this data opened by technology, financial institutions continue to face challenges on the data front. •  More data means more cost. •  While technology has significantly reduced the unit costs of data gathering, it has ironically also raised the potential total cost of data by opening more possibilities for data mining and analysis. One way to improve access to data without raising costs significantly would be for the industry to pool relevant data together. •  The benefits of aggregating data across the industry can be seen from our experience with the credit bureau, which has allowed banks to make better credit underwriting decisions. •  However, concerns over confidentiality and market sensitivity have held back data sharing among financial institutions and restricted public access to data. One effective way to achieve seamless data sharing is through the publication of open Application Programming Interfaces, or APIs, by financial institutions for data submission.
In other words, perhaps uniquely in the constellation of the Federal Reserve System, my colleagues and I work for you. My standing before you represents a visceral reminder of our accountability to depository institutions, independent of size, which rely upon our services to send and receive time critical payments; to maintain and permit the transfer of Fedwire eligible securities; and to provide cash services to support the needs of consumers and commercial establishments. It is with this orientation that I offer these remarks today, which reflect my own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. The theme of today’s conference, appropriately, has been “Navigating Future Risks for Community Banks”. Allow me to elaborate upon the single risk that dominates from my vantage, regrettably not a “future risk” but an all too present one, and to highlight some of the measures that we are taking in response. The risk to which I refer is not a function of regulatory pressure, or capital demands, or an evolving economy, or compliance challenges, or the proliferation of new technologies, or an unprecedented season of payments innovation, or the challenging competitive landscape. All of these may represent very real risks, and no doubt occupy your consciousness, to borrow the lyrics of a prior generation, “eight days a week”.

Rather, building upon the theme of your prior panel discussion, the risk that dominates from my parochial view is the escalating and evolving cyber threat to our financial and payment systems, representing the challenge of our generation. The orientation that I want to pursue, reflecting this audience, is not what we are doing within the Federal Reserve to harden our critical infrastructure. While that is a manic and consuming preoccupation it is not my focus today. Instead, I want to concentrate on endpoint security vulnerabilities to the payments system, in which partnership with the institutions in this room represents an indispensable element of success. Historically, market infrastructures have operated on the presumption that endpoint security is 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  principally the responsibility of the endpoint, and infrastructure security is principally the responsibility of the operator. In the United States, the legal framework for wholesale funds transfers codifies that presumption, with each actor assigned responsibility for that part of security most within its control. Yet, in the present environment endpoint security breaches can have serious implications for public confidence in the integrity of the network as a whole, even in circumstances when the operator’s infrastructure, applications, and security perimeter have not been compromised. A series of recent high profile events have underscored dramatically this endpoint security risk, a theme that has also captured the attention of global policy makers.