samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In addition, we have undertaken a broad based program of initiatives to build a more robust over-the-counter derivatives infrastructure through, among other measures, a central clearing house for credit default swaps; to strengthen the financial cushions held by central counterparties against the risk of default by a participant; and to reduce vulnerabilities in secured funding markets. These initiatives will take time, but we expect to see substantial progress over the next two quarters. I look forward to your questions today and working with you as we move ahead in building a more effective financial regulatory framework for the United States. Thank you. BIS Review 95/2008  5

But in some cases the best judgment that it may be possible to make is that the supervisory authority is actively working to establish the necessary capability - which is essentially the view that we have taken in relation to the People’s Bank of China in licensing banks from the Mainland; second, it is important to realize that, in undertaking consolidated supervision, the primary responsibility of the home supervisor will be to safeguard the interests of the parent bank. While this should hopefully help to promote the safety and soundness of the banking group as a whole, including overseas banking subsidiaries, the interests of home and host supervisor may not necessarily coincide. Despite this, the various regulators should, of course, try to cooperate to the maximum extent possible; third, and related to the previous point, cooperation will only be possible if there is an adequate two-way flow of information. However, the main focus of consolidated supervision sometimes appears to be for the home supervisor to obtain information from the host supervisor. There is less emphasis on reciprocal flows. For example, in the recent paper prepared jointly by the Basle Committee and the Offshore Group of Banking Supervisors on Supervision of Cross-Border Banking, only four paragraphs out of BIS Review 55/1997  -5-  forty-three are devoted to information flows from home supervisor to host supervisor. In our experience, home supervisors can be reluctant to share information with us, either at the time of authorization or, more particularly, if serious problems arise in the parent bank.
On a quarterly basis, euro area real GDP growth was flat in the first quarter of 2012, following a decline of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Economic indicators point to weak economic activity in the second quarter of 2012 and at the beginning of the third quarter, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually, with growth momentum being further dampened by a number of factors. In particular, tensions in some euro area sovereign debt markets and their impact on financing conditions, the process of balance sheet adjustment in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  the financial and non-financial sectors and high unemployment are expected to weigh on the underlying growth momentum, which is also affected by the ongoing global slowdown. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. They relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to possible renewed increases in energy prices over the medium term. Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from the previous month. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013.

Mario Draghi: ECB press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 2 August 2012. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn. Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, following the decrease of 25 basis points in July. As we said a month ago, inflation should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, economic growth in the euro area remains weak, with the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment. A further intensification of financial market tensions has the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation on the downside. The Governing Council extensively discussed the policy options to address the severe malfunctioning in the price formation process in the bond markets of euro area countries.
This is well reflected in the 2018-2022 corporate strategy under course. This was based on an unprecedented consultation of stakeholders and participatory internal process. It defined as a vision for the Bank to be a trustworthy technical institution, known for its high standards in achieving its institutional objectives. On this basis, we have launched a number of initiatives aimed at fostering public trust in terms by improving its reliability, adaptability, integrity, accessibility and fairness. To improve its reliability, the Central Bank of Chile has taken a thoughtful process of revision of its framework of monetary policy and forward guidance. Great emphasis has also been given to strengthening the technical toolkit to identify and communicate sources of financial risk. With a focus on adaptability, we have introduced special chapters, analytical boxes and companion studies to our flagship reports. We have also launched a technological observatory with the goal of identifying new sources of risk, and the creation of the Corporate Risk Area within the Bank. For integrity, we have broadened the framework and coverage of declaration of interests among executives and staff in sensitive functions, and have strengthened our external auditing committee. Some initiatives to improve the Bank’s accessibility include regular presentations of Bank reports throughout the country, the development of market intelligence mechanisms and the upgrading of communications by creating an Institutional Affairs Division. To foster fairness we are also deepening our analysis of the economic and financial behavior of households and raising our contribution to financial literacy and education to the highest world standards.

Elvira Nabiullina: Review of recent inflation developments in Russia and economic outlook Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, in the follow-up to the Board of Directors meeting, Moscow, 23 July 2021. * * * Good afternoon, We have made the decision to raise the key rate by 100 basis points to 6.50% per annum. Our today’s decision is based on the updated macroeconomic forecast that was significantly revised. The growth of the Russian economy sped up in the second quarter, and inflationary pressure turned out to be higher and more persistent than forecast. Some sectors are already demonstrating signs of overheating. Inflation expectations also continued to go up. Given the observed trends, we have revised our inflation forecast upwards by one point. This year, it will equal 5.7–6.2%. The important step in our policy, which we have made today, is needed to bring inflation back to the target. We expect inflation to slow down to 4.0–4.5% next year and stay close to 4% further on. Nonetheless, our policy will not contain the steady rates of economic growth. I would now dwell on the factors behind our today’s decision. I will start out with inflation. As of 19 July, inflation was 6.5% in annualised terms. This is considerably above the target and is close to five-year peaks. High growth rates are driven by both temporary and steady factors. According to our estimates, steady factors dominate at the moment.
Svein Gjedrem: Economic perspectives Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank, Oslo, 16 February 2006. The Charts in pdf-format  can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  1. Introduction On the way into this building, we pass a statue of the nineteenth century Norwegian actor Johannes Brun. He performed at Christiania Theatre, which once stood in the square in front of the main entrance. Brun was an acquaintance of Henrik Ibsen, who also worked at the same theatre for a period – part-time as dramatic consultant – when the theatre he had been directing closed. This was a difficult time for our great dramatist, both personally and financially. He was struggling to overcome writer’s block and the public’s preference for the mediocre and the trivial. 1 Nineteenth-century Christiania (now Oslo) was described as “O great and little city! What a cold and surly sky broods over you!”. 2 A bleak time for Ibsen, perhaps. But the Norwegian economy was not faring all that badly. The economic expansion that had begun in the 1820s gathered momentum from the middle of the century. The British navigation acts were repealed in 1849 and the Norwegian fleet was permitted to transport other countries’ goods to and from England. Norway had suddenly become a major exporter of services. The tonnage of the Norwegian commercial fleet increased almost six-fold from 1850 to 1880. 2.

There is a growing momentum in scaling up the green agenda on a global basis, with countries such as Denmark, South Korea, Finland and Germany already embarking on green technology movements in their respective countries. Since 2007, the worldwide market for green technology has grown on an average of 12% annually, and is now worth over EUR2 trillion. By 2025, it is forecasted to double to EUR4.4 trillion. The global market for renewable energy namely wind, solar photovoltaic (PV) and biofuels has grown by more than 30% in the recent few years and is estimated to reach nearly $ billion by 2021 . Economies that have  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  strategically invested in the green technology sector are already reaping the benefits of the transition to green initiatives. Germany, for example, has a green industry growing at an annual average of 12% since 2007 and a global market share of 15%. Green technology companies contributed 11% of its GDP and employing 1.4 million workers. In the case of the solar energy sector, Malaysia is now one of the top producers in PV manufacturing and this industry has generated direct foreign investment of over RM12 billion and created over 10,000 skilled and well paid jobs . Green technology offers specific solutions for pressing ecological and social challenges, and for this reason it is expected to continue to gain global importance.
Draghi, M. (2017), “Accompanying the economic recovery”, speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, 27 June. Engel, C. and K. West (2010), “Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar", American Economic Review, 100(2), 562–67. European Central Bank (2016), “Exchange rate pass-through into euro area inflation”, Economic Bulletin, July. Forbes, K., I. Hjortsoe and T. Nenova (2015), “The shocks matter: improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through”, Bank of England Discussion Paper, No 43. Fuhrer, J. and G. Moore (1995), “Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and the Correlation Between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output”, American Economic Review, 85, 219–239. Fuhrer, J. and G. Rudebusch (2004), “Estimating the Euler equation for Output”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 21, 1133–1153. Georgiadis, G., J. Graeb and M. Khalil (2017), “Global Value Chain Participation and Exchange Rate Pass-through”, mimeo. 12 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  Goodhart, C. and B. Hofmann (2005), “The IS Curve and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Is there a Puzzle?”, Applied Economics, 37, 29–36. Gopinath, G., O. Itskhoki and R. Rigobon (2010), “Currency Choice and Exchange Rate PassThrough”, American Economic Review, Vol. 100, No 1, 304–336. Gust, C., S. Leduc and R. Vigfusson (2010), “Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 57, Issue 3, 309–324. Hahn, E. (2007), “The impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area”, ECB Working Paper No 796.

To that end we have raised required reserve ratios to control the rapid credit expansion by restricting the supply of loanable funds. Another issue we considered is lengthening the maturity of capital inflows. This is important for improving the quality of capital account, limiting maturity mismatches, and avoiding exchange rate misalignments. To this end, we lowered the policy rate and widened the corridor between overnight borrowing and lending rates so as to create some extra volatility in the short-term interest rates. Although it looks quite complicated at first sight, the framework we adopt in spirit is not significantly different from the conventional inflation targeting framework. The only difference is that, previously our policy instrument was the one week repo rate, but now our instrument is a “policy mix”—which consists of a combination of short term interest rates, reserve requirement ratios and interest corridor. We seek to use these instruments in right combination in order to cope with both inflation and macro-financial risks. The monetary policy stance in this framework is not only determined by the path of policy rates, but as a mixture of all policy instruments outlined above. Just like the conventional inflation targeting framework, the policy is forward looking and contingent on the economic outlook. The exact  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  setting of the policy mix depends on the factors affecting price stability and financial stability. Although it is too early to assess the success of these policies, initial impact so far seems promising.
At 40 percent of world GDP, the world’s net international investment position—the sum of net creditor and net debtor positions—is now at a historical peak and four times larger than in the early 1990s. Among the top debtors, the net international investment position of the United States is now close to –50 percent of GDP, down about 40 percentage points since 2007. Chart 4 Net International Investment Position (NIIP), 1990-20184 (Percent of world GDP)  Source: IMF, External sector report, 2019  The snapshot of the global external profile reveals narrowing of the imbalances after the global crisis, and concentration in the advanced economies. Despite the lower magnitude, large part of the current account imbalance seems not to be aligned with the fundamental and desirable policies. Furthermore, lower flow gaps, visible through 4 Chart extracted from the IMF External Sector Report, 2019. 6  lower current account and financial flows, were not sufficient to curb stock imbalance visible through the historically highest global NIP. Given the uncertain global environment, driven by the rising trade tensions, external flow and stock imbalances could widen again, although this will much depend on the assumed policy response in different countries. Further disruptions to trade and supply chains are one of the major risks that can affect the external imbalances, as well. Higher tariffs on bilateral trade can come at significant economic cost, not only for the countries involved, but also for others.

It is also important to alleviate technical and operational barriers which make it too costly for participants to connect. We have streamlined our regular testing procedures and adapted our rulebooks to take account of changing technology while maintaining high standards and safeguards. For example, it is now possible to join CHAPS (the UK high value payment service) using cloud infrastructure. Evolution of our public infrastructure It is one thing to enable access, it is also essential to provide the functionality that attracts users. New functionality can enable the industry to innovate, utilise central bank money in new ways and build new services for their customers. Continuing the road analogy, high-speed motorways had to replace country roads to allow more goods to be shipped and people to connect more quickly and over longer distances. 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  I want to bring this to life by outlining the Bank’s current programme to modernise our core payments infrastructure. In 2017, the Bank announced an ambitious vision7, created in close collaboration with industry, to renew the RTGS service. The Blueprint outlined a wide range of proposals intended to provide higher resilience, broader access, wider interoperability, and improved user functionality. In just over a year we will be realising the first key element of that vision: the implementation of enhanced ISO20022 messaging standards8. In April 2023 CHAPS will move to the common international language for payments. Richer and more harmonised data can allow merchants to match payments to invoices and brokers to reconcile trades.
Some of my findings – in the form of words, photos and cartoons – are available at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/outreach#. I find that cartoons can be particularly effective, indeed much better than words, in capturing the sentiment and narrative in the room. For example, consider this one on what the local community saw as their key challenges and frustrations, taken from my visit to South Wales. Or this one, on the role of charities in the community from my visit to Leicester. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  Or this one, on housing and other issues facing young people from my recent visit to Blackpool. These pictorial narratives provide a simple visual summary which, unlike the written word, can be digested by anyone in less than a minute. They are also a very useful cross-check on my own understanding and a check on my own cognitive biases. Often, I find that the message my non-economist scribe, David, takes from these meetings is different than my own. 14  In these situations, I take David’s reading of the room as  probably the truer reflection of what citizens have really said. I call these visits my Townhall Tours, though this is a rubbish description as I have yet to visit a town hall. I am told that anthropologists would call what I am doing “deep hanging out”, after anthropologist Clifford Geertz. 15  Deep hanging out sounds more appealing than visiting town halls.

Last year alone, the Bank’s Agents met with over 8,000 companies. Recently, we extended the Agents’ reach to include charities, community groups, trades unions and wider civil society. On the engagement ladder, these are examples of the Bank “involving” and “collaborating” with citizens, on a practical day-to-day basis across all parts of the UK. Last year, I extended my own regional programme, with a separate set of visits designed to engage with, and listen to, some of the quieter voices in society, voices otherwise drowned-out in the media cacophony – the voice of charities, community and voluntary groups, local councils, trade unions. And I have sought out those voices in parts of the country that may not otherwise always get a hearing – the under-performing parts of thriving cities as well as communities, towns and cities which are struggling. This regional focus on engaging with the less well-performing parts of the UK is in line with another of the RSA’s recommendations. 11 12 13  Details available at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/february/boe-and-ft-school-blog-competition See https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/february/department-of-education-consultation-response?sf84498143=1 England, Hebden, Henderson and Pattie (2015). 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  These visits use approaches to collecting intelligence which are, for me, new – listening methods more familiar from anthropology and sociology than economics and statistics. They involve open, unframed discussions of the issues that matter most to people in their everyday lives, their lived experiences in their local communities, with me as a fly (not bluebottle) on the wall.
However, this recovery process has been slower than we expected a few months ago. In particular, because mobility has not increased as quickly as we had hoped and the social distancing, both compulsory and voluntary, has had more long-lasting effects on some areas of the economy, such as construction and services. The withdrawal of pension savings has triggered temporary increases in consumption, especially of imported goods, which have had a positive impact on sectors such as retail but have also put pressure on the prices of the most demanded products. In fact, inflation data for September and October showed significant upward surprises, mostly concentrated in the categories of durable consumer products, such as home equipment and electronics. The significant depletion, and in some cases exhaustion, of inventories of these products has contributed to this result. Investment, beyond the reactivation of public and private projects, is being affected by the restrictions on mobility that have taken a toll on construction, the financial situation of companies, and the persistent uncertainty, so it is lagging further behind than consumption. The labor market, meanwhile, has shown some recovery, with an increase in employment compared to mid-year, but mostly concentrated in non-salaried jobs. Very recently we learned of the Metropolitan Region’s rollback to Phase 2 of the “Step-by-step” plan, which could take some of the impulse off activity at the margin. However, it could also help to avoid more drastic measures in the future by articulating a more orderly transition towards a vaccine.

The withdrawal of pension savings will have a significant effect on consumption and trade-related activities next year. The fiscal stimulus will continue to be positive, in accordance with the approved budget. The Chilean economy will receive a slightly greater external boost than previously considered, with our trading partners growing by an average of 4.9% in the years 2021 and 2022, with an average copper price of USD 3.15 per pound in the same years. With this, we project that after falling between 6.25% and 5.75% this year, the Chilean economy will grow between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2021 and between 3% and 4% in 2022 (Table 1). With respect to monetary policy, our assessment of the macroeconomic scenario and its outlook leads us to anticipate that the monetary stimulus will remain high for an extended period of time, so as to ensure the consolidation of the economic recovery and the achievement of the Bank’s objectives. In particular, we foresee the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) remaining at its minimum level for much of the 24-month monetary policy horizon. As for the unconventional measures, they will remain in place. This considers that the total stock of bank bonds acquired by the CBC under different programs—around USD 8 billion—will be maintained for the next six months, reinvesting the coupons as they mature. This excludes the purchases made under the Cash Purchase and Term Sale (CC-VP) program, which have a different objective. With respect to the FCIC, the Board has made no changes to the total amount of resources available.