samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Closer examination of procyclical effects of credit market developments and the treatment of risk embedded in structured products held for trading is also warranted. The Deposit Guarantee Schemes, in the light of recent events, also need to be revisited. This is a piece of advice I would most urgently give to the authorities of this country with its unfunded DGS. BIS Review 120/2007  9  Last but not least If there is one major lesson recent market developments have clearly shown, it is the shortcoming of a prudential framework which sidelines the central bank. Cooperation at international level is only as good as cooperation at domestic level. Liquidity issues cannot be segmented between an FSA and a central bank with no contacts of an institutional nature. With this personal remark for domestic consumption I thank you for your attention. 10  BIS Review 120/2007

Including the portion of shares of non-residents in some banks, which have been agreed upon, although the legal permit process thereto has not been completed yet, the share of non-residents in total assets has reached over 16 percent. Comparing the ratio of assets of the banking sector to the GNP in Turkey to those of developed countries, it is seen that Turkey ranks considerably lower on the list. As long as the favorable developments continue, the banking sector should grow in parallel or, even more. However, it is obvious that in a sector so capitalintense, achieving growth will not solely be domestically. I believe that foreign capital inflows to the banking sector should be handled within this framework. In 2005, while the balance sheet of the banking sector grew in size, the share of TL-denominated assets and liabilities increased. As the crowding-out effect of the public sector diminished, the share of credits in assets continued to increase. This indicates that the banking sector has come close to its fundamental function. Despite the fact that the rapid upsurge in credit volume has increased the credit risk, the decline in the NPL ratio and the high provisioning policy adopted by the sector during the same period are considered as favorable developments. Meanwhile, the monitoring of credit risk,  BIS Review 68/2006  3  which may increase due to the policies on credit allocation that are likely to be eased in the growth period of the economy, is of great importance.
And thirdly, the level and complexity of interconnectivity of various types of financial institutions have increased very rapidly, and with this, increased counterparty risk and systemic risk implications. Much of this is in the OTC derivatives markets which are hard to monitor, and presents huge problem in unwinding during a crisis, even with standard agreements such as the ISDA Agreements. The overhaul of international regulatory framework is a major challenge, but as we all know, this process will not be immediate, as the regulators of major economies are still focused on solving the turmoil. In the meantime, it is up to all of us to be aware that conforming to minimum standard, even one prescribed by international best practices, may not be adequate if the risk profiles dictate a higher level of vigilance, risk management, and capital adequacy. In this regard, given the complex nature of financial conglomerates in emerging markets in Asia today, a robust framework of risk management and supervision on a consolidated basis is a must. In the case of Thailand, we have undergone the Financial Sector Assessment Programme (FSAP) of the IMF and the World Bank in 2007. FSAP assessed the regulatory framework of banks, capital market, insurance, the payment system, against international best practices such as the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision, as well as the Insurance Core Principles of IAIS. Overall, the FSAP team found the Thai financial system to be resilient and with the regulatory framework broadly conforming with international best practices.

The necessary reforms would have to include changing the public finance structure to address the ageing problem, overly generous social security systems, etc. These are problems shared by all European countries, and are politically quite hard to resolve. The consolidation of public budgets to a sustainable position is thus one of the key challenges for some accession countries (as well as for the present EU members). This is all the more true because upon EU accession the Stability and Growth Pact will also become relevant to the new member states. This is something that has not been fully realised and appreciated yet, at least in the Czech Republic. It will be very interesting to hear the experience of the other accession countries. There are many more aspects to the accession debate. These include balance-of-payments developments and exchange rate issues; the role of structural policies in achieving the optimumcurrency-area criteria; the role of fiscal and income policies in fulfilling the Maastricht criteria both on  2  BIS Review 17/2003  inflation and on exchange rate stability; financial sector reforms and developments, including their implications for monetary transmission; and so on. I could spend much longer discussing these matters, as well as focusing more deeply on the issues that I have already mentioned. Nonetheless, I do not want to prejudice our debate by volunteering my own opinions at the very beginning of this conference.
Ravi Menon: Preparing the workforce for a changing financial industry Welcome remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Institute of Banking and Finance Distinction Evening 2018, Singepore, 4 October 2018. * * * Mr Chan Chun Sing, Minister for Trade and Industry, Members of the IBF Council, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to the IBF Distinction Evening 2018. We are delighted to have Mr Chan Chun Sing as our Guest-of-Honour. Minister Chan, as you know, has played a leading role in the labour movement, to help prepare our workers for the future. And now Minister for Trade and Industry, he is leading Singapore’s economic development efforts. He will bring together his insights from these two important roles and share his thoughts later on building a smart workforce that is ready for the economy of tomorrow. The IBF Distinction Evening is probably the only large platform that brings together the entire financial industry – banks, insurers, asset managers, financial advisers. It is an opportune occasion – not only to catch up with colleagues and friends and celebrate our achievements as an industry – but to also reflect on the big drivers of change and key priorities for us as an industry. There is much celebrate. Singapore’s financial centre is doing well. Growth in financial services in H1 this year was 8%, nearly twice as fast as the overall economy.

It is precisely to assess these risks that the NGFS launched a dedicated task forcexxii earlier this year. I have the great honor to co-lead this task force with Saskia de Vries from the DNB. It includes many members from all over the world. 5  Page 6 sur 12 Luckily, we do not start from scratch. For instance, economists recognize that biodiversity enables ecosystems to provide essential services that sustain life on our planet (called “ecosystem services”). As they regenerate themselves, they are able to provide basic but essential goods (such as food, wood, water, etc.) but also regulation services (such as climate regulation, water purification or pollination) and cultural services such as touristic activities. Our economies are deeply dependent on these ecosystem services. A study indicates than half of global GDP is moderately or highly dependent on ecosystem servicesxxiii and another study finds that that the total economic value of ecosystem services at the global level amounts to more than annual global GDP.xxiv But let’s be careful: we also know that such monetary assessments of ecosystem services have many limitations. For instance, Robert Costanza and co-authors (in the study I just referred to) acknowledge that such assessments of ecosystem services help to increase the awareness of policy makers and economists about the importance of biodiversity, but have limited value in terms of decision-making. There are at least three reasons to proceed carefully here.
Built-in stabilisers did exist, for instance in the form of unemployment support, but the benefits were low in order to strengthen the incentive to search for new employment. This did work – when the upturn came in February 1922 the number of persons on relief work or the dole was over 100,000; by the end of 1923 the figure had dropped to 6,000 – but the flexibility did, of course, exact a price in the form of social hardship. Stabilisation policy’s emergence In contrast to the lack of an active economic policy in the period around 1920, decision-makers in the 1930s had high ambitions, underpinned by a nascent stabilisation policy theory. The course of economic events in connection with the crisis of 1930–33 partly resembled what had happened in Sweden a decade earlier. An international boom with unduly high hopes of future profits had led to markedly inflated asset prices. The party ended in a financial crash and Wall Street’s collapse in October 1929. A number of banks had to close their doors. On top of all this, the US Federal Reserve imposed credit restrictions. In Sweden, the depression was not as deep as the one in the early 1920s, though unemployment did rise to much the same level, about 25 per cent. The major difference was that the economy was successfully piloted past a steep price fall. Sweden left the gold standard in September 1931.

Since the upturn in 1993, annual GDP growth has averaged 3–4 per cent, while inflation has stopped at 1 per cent. This is impressive, not least compared with the 1970s and 1980s, when growth averaged little more than 2 per cent and inflation over 8 per cent. Moreover, open unemployment has fallen in just four years from 9 to less than 4 per cent. Today, when Sweden again faces an economic downturn, the initial position is considerably better than earlier. Inflation is low. There is no sign of large financial imbalances. Foreign trade is generating surpluses. The government budget is also in surplus and government debt has been reduced from about 80 per cent of GDP to 50–55 per cent. An economic policy synthesis This brief review clearly illustrates the interaction of theory and practice over the years. New features in economic development raise new questions. New theories provide answers that are sometimes incorporated in practical politics. This influences developments and raises new questions. In view of this, there is every reason to be humble. We are no doubt as far from the end of history in this field as in others. Perhaps one can discern the outlines of a synthesis between the classical approaches and the ideas of Keynes. As I see it, such a synthesis can rest on three pillars: •  The basic condition for a good economic development is markets that function properly, with rules that are clear and firm.
BIS Review 44/2006  3  Norges Bank seeks to set the interest rate with a view to achieving a reasonable balance between the objective of stabilising inflation at target and the objective of stabilising developments in output and employment. Interest rates are projected to increase gradually in the years ahead, up to a more normal level. Interest rates are also expected to increase in other countries. Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy is now fairly high and will contribute to bringing inflation up towards the target in the course of the next 2-3 years. In the account presented after the monetary policy meeting of the Executive Board on 26 April, it was stated that there are prospects of another interest rate increase in the second quarter – at the monetary policy meeting in May or June – and a further increase thereafter. In addition to projecting developments, we wish to highlight the uncertainty surrounding developments ahead. The projections for the interest rate and other economic variables are based on incomplete information about the current economic situation and the functioning of the economy. Allow me to summarise: The fall in prices for imported goods and services and the increase in export prices have provided the Norwegian economy with an appreciable income boost. The mainland economy has expanded rapidly in recent years. At the same time, inflation has remained low. Increased efficiency and ample supply of labour has made a contribution in this context. This situation is now changing. There are now limited idle resources.

In a period of increasing cross-border labour flows, major technological advances, changes in competitive conditions and substantial changes in trade patterns, inflation will probably, with our very open economy, show somewhat wider variations, as witnessed over the past two to three years. The operational objective of monetary policy is low and stable consumer price inflation. Over time, the consumer price index will provide a guide for assessing monetary policy. Monthly variations in consumer prices reflect temporary conditions which monetary policy cannot control. According to Norges Bank’s remit, the Bank shall not normally take account of direct effects on consumer prices of changes in interest rate, excise duties and extraordinary, temporary disturbances. Energy prices have traditionally shown wide variations. Hence, a price index that is adjusted for variations in such prices as well as for indirect taxes can be a measure of underlying inflation in the economy. However, such a price index does not take account of that fact that the trend rise in energy prices has been higher than for other prices and is therefore not a perfect measure of underlying inflation. In the past 10-20 years, energy prices and taxes have pushed up consumer prices annually by an average 0.35 percentage point. Even when taking into account trend increases in energy prices, inflation is still moderate. Experience indicates that inflation expectations remain stable even if inflation varies somewhat, as long as the interest rate is used actively to curb the effects.
In fact, for years, Greece had made poor management choices: no structural reforms, no privatisation, it had raised wages much faster than productivity and, to cap it all, it had massaged its public debt figures. The cocktail was explosive and it did indeed explode. Markets then became jittery about the debt of two other euro area countries: Ireland and Portugal. Nonetheless, a distinction should be made between these countries’ situations. Ireland enjoyed very strong growth for ten years with exemplary fiscal management. But it made two mistakes: on the one hand, it allowed its banking sector to become too developed with huge exposure to US real estate assets and, on the other, it gave an almost blanket guarantee to this sector. In 2010, the country was hit by the US financial and real estate crisis that caused banks to fail and require massive State bail outs. Its fiscal deficit then exploded, triggering panic on the markets. But, it is clear that this crisis was due to more specific factors. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  However, the case of Portugal is closer to that of Greece, even though it is much less critical. The Portuguese economy has constantly performed poorly for the past few years. Growth and productivity have been weak and fiscal policies very lax. It is therefore a crisis of confidence about the sustainability Portuguese sovereign debt that caused its borrowing rates to soar and denying it access to market financing as of last March.

Can this persist in the long term? The ECB’s monetary policy will remain very accommodative until inflation is firmly on a path towards 2%. What other reasons are there, beyond the ECB’s decisions, for interest rates being so low? It is because growth is still weak. It is because our economies are less able than in the past to create growth. The ECB must take account of this environment and, to provide effective support to the recovery, we must set our key interest rates at very low or even negative levels. If the European economy regains the ability to sustainably create growth, interest rates will return to levels more favourable to savings. How do you account for the fact that economic growth has remained low in France in 2016? The pace of economic growth is accelerating throughout the euro area and the unemployment rate is falling, including in France, but at a slightly slower pace. The ECB’s monetary policy has made a strong contribution and the reforms implemented in each country have played a role. The countries that were severely affected by the financial crisis have had to undertake reforms. The reforms that they have implemented, particularly in the labour market, have been hard but are now bearing fruit. In Spain, for example, growth is set to be above 3% in 2016 and the unemployment rate is falling rapidly. France, which weathered the crisis better, faced less pressure to undertake reforms. Today growth in France is weaker and unemployment is higher.
Hong Kong is the ideal gateway for Middle Eastern investors who are keen to capitalise on the Mainland’s rapid economic growth. International investors can gain exposures to different sectors of China through the Hong Kong platform. For example, for investors wanting to access China’s property market, they can make use of the Real Estate Investment Trusts listed in Hong Kong with underlying exposures to properties in Mainland China. There has also been encouraging innovation in combining sukuk with China equity exposures – what I refer to was the launch of an exchangeable sukuk linked to the underlying shares of a Mainland China company listed in the stock exchange of Hong Kong. The exchangeable sukuk, which is listed on our stock exchange as well, attracted a high subscription from Middle Eastern investors and reaffirmed the keen demand for investment opportunities with China growth prospect through the Hong Kong platform. In terms of infrastructural support, many leading international banks have geared up for Islamic finance products and many of them have a very strong presence in Hong Kong. Our market players are therefore well-equipped to leverage on the expertise in other parts of the world in structuring Shariah-compliant products and meeting the needs of even the most demanding Islamic financier. Hong Kong’s success factors lie not only in our premier location and versatility, but also in possessing the talent and infrastructure to become the conduit to facilitate the capital flows between the Middle East and Asia. What more should be done?

Eddie Yue: Hong Kong’s possible role in Islamic finance Welcome address by Mr Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Executive Board Chairman of the Treasury Markets Association, at the Hong Kong Showcase on Islamic Finance, Dubai and Amman, 11-12 May 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and gentleman, It is with great pleasure that I welcome you all to the Hong Kong Showcase on Islamic Finance, presented by members of the financial services industry in Hong Kong, and jointly organised by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Hong Kong Treasury Markets Association and Hong Kong Trade Development Council, which is being held over two days in Dubai, UAE and Amman, Jordan. I would first like to thank Her Majesty Queen Rania Al-Abdullah of Jordan, who is hosting the Islamic Financial Services Board’s Annual Summit, the Central Bank of Jordan, and of course the IFSB itself, for graciously agreeing to allow us to organise this event under the auspices of the Annual Summit. This forum is indeed an excellent opportunity for the regulators, industry practitioners and investors in the Gulf region and Hong Kong to share new perspectives in the rapidly expanding area of Islamic finance, which transcends national borders and is fast penetrating global financial markets. Today we will be focusing on what Hong Kong has to offer and where it fits into this changing global financial landscape.
Chile)  2.8 -0.5 2.0 7.8 5.1 3.8 2.7  1.9 -0.4 1.1 8.1 6.3 4.3 3.3  1.9 -0.6 1.8 7.6 5.4 3.8 2.8  1.5 -0.5 1.7 7.5 5.4 3.8 2.7  2.5 1.3 1.3 8.2 6.4 4.7 3.7  2.7 1.0 1.0 7.5 5.9 4.1 3.1  2.6 1.0 1.0 7.4 5.8 3.9 2.9  2.7 2.1 0.8 7.5 6.3 4.1 3.7  LME copper price $ Brent oil price $  361 112  350 108  325 105  330 108  (levels) 340 101  305 98  305 108  290 97  Terms of trade  -4.1  -0.4  -3.5  0.1  -1.2  (annual change, percent) -5.2  -1.6  0.4  (f) Forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on a sample of investment banks, Consensus Forecasts, IMF and respective statistics bureaus. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Table 2 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent) 2012  2013 (f)  Mar. 13 Report  Jun.

There is still considerable debate amongst Islamic scholars about the acceptability of the various forms of derivative products from the perspective of Islamic jurisprudence. Hence, there is a need for more investment in intellectual capital in the field of Islamic finance to promote innovation that  BIS Review 11/2004  3  integrates the appropriate Syariah principles within the Islamic financial instruments. Our efforts to keep abreast with such developments will facilitate more rapid development of Islamic financial instruments for the purpose of risk management, using derivatives. It is evident that the derivatives business has global opportunities since risk in today’s financial environment is a product of uncertainties prevailing in the global markets, whether financial or non-financial. The ISDA Master Agreements have been the universal means of bringing order and certainty to the complex and rapidly developing world of OTC derivatives. The culmination of the new 2002 ISDA Agreement, 10 years after its predecessor, comes in the wake of many financial crises. Legal documentation of derivative transactions has a role in mitigating risks for banks and businesses. The world has changed considerably in this recent 10 years - financial liberalization driven by rapid advances in information technology is altering the financial landscape at an unprecedented pace. The legal and regulatory infrastructure must keep pace. We must continuously learn, un-learn and re-learn. The acquisition and application of knowledge must be a deliberate strategy and activity in pursuing the path of excellence.