samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The amount of $ billion has been fully subscribed by a diversified group of investors. They include not only banks, but also institutional investors and fund managers. The participation of these latter groups is especially welcome as a sign of the potential breath of the investor base for good  BIS Review 47/2003  1  quality Hong Kong dollar debt securities. The opportunity has been taken to offer more choices to investors. These are explained in the technical note attached to the press release. The CEO of HKMC will be happy to explain these to you and answer any questions that you may have, later in the press briefing. What I would like to do here in conclusion is to thank HSBC, the Lead Manager of this MBS issue for marketing it so effectively. I would also like to thank the Senior Co-lead Managers, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Bank of East Asia, International Bank of Asia, Mitsubishi Securities (HK) and Co-lead Manager, BNP Paribas for their staunch support. The HKMC team has enjoyed working with all of you towards this successful result, and we look forward to your continuing active participation in future HKMC issues. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 47/2003

Economists have long found it difficult to explain why, given the risks of equity investments, governments should need to offer high real rates of return on their bonds in a world of low and stable inflation. So perhaps the world capital market is returning to an era of low real rates more akin to the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. If annual market rates on index-linked securities in the UK were to remain around 1%, then, with a 2% inflation target, the level of official  2  BIS Review 9/2006  interest rates required to balance overall demand and supply would, in the long run, be lower than was thought necessary in the past few decades. Even if we knew that long-term interest rates were low because of a change in the balance of saving and investment in the world, judging the appropriate level of interest rates would be a challenge. But monetary policy is made more difficult by the fact that there is another, very different, explanation of recent low long-term interest rates. Rapid growth of money - as central banks have kept official interest rates very low - has helped to push up asset prices as investors “search for yield”. Data from the IMF suggest that world broad money in 2003 and 2004 was growing at its fastest rate since the late 1980s.
And even those who look mainly to the United States - where both the market and the currency relationship have been more stable - faced intensified competition from the rest of the world. BIS Review 5/2000  2  These effects were not, of course, peculiar to Scottish businesses. They applied equally to all similarly internationally-exposed businesses throughout the UK. Each region has its own particular business characteristics so that some were affected more than others - with some English regions worse affected than the overall economy here in Scotland. But the effects were just as damaging to similar businesses wherever they were located, so that the differential impact was felt within regions throughout the UK not just between them. These cries of pain from the most severely affected businesses and sectors right across the UK I really do understand. The question is what can we do about it through the operation of monetary policy? The problems - as I have explained - derive essentially from developments abroad, and there is not much that we can do directly about them, although both the Bank and the Government are very actively involved in the wider international debate on how to bring about greater stability and better balance in the global economy. Of course we take full account, in our forecasts and in our policy judgements, of the implications of the international environment for our own economy. That is why we moved aggressively to cut interest rates from the autumn of 1998 and early last year.

The legacy of those losses has likely limited the banking sector’s ability to extend new loans during this expansion, as banks acted in a highly precautionary way to accrue capital that had been depleted as well as to add to their previous capital levels. The need for banks to repair their balance sheets following the financial crisis contributed to the far slower growth of outstanding bank loans during this expansion when compared to previous long expansions. Real outstanding loans to businesses, which are dominated by bank loans, declined more in this recovery than in previous recoveries (Figure 4). On the household side, real outstanding residential mortgages, which are largely originated by banks, have declined through most of this expansion while they grew steadily in previous expansions (Figure 5). Consumer credit has risen at a modest rate in this recovery – comparable to that of the last cycle (Figure 6). This category includes auto loans, credit cards and other consumer debts that are mainly originated by banks. But it also includes student loans where the federal government is the dominant lender. Student loans have risen robustly during this expansion, and have driven much of the rise of overall consumer credit. We will have much more to say about them later in today’s briefing. The U.S. financial system relies more heavily on capital markets than other advanced economies. Bonds and other negotiable debt instruments are an important source of funding to credit-worthy corporations.
Suffice it to say that it was a game of two halves. And, far from a boring goalless draw, it turned out to be a rather exciting and dramatic game, full of incident, with a red card or two and a passionate and at times justifiably angry crowd. We shall have to wait for the historians of tomorrow to file the full match report. Instead, tonight I want to focus on the twin challenges of engineering a recovery and reforming the financial system. I want to look back on the huge amount that has been done, and look forward to the unfinished business on both fronts, much of it for the Bank of England. I shall also tell you a story about the Governor of the Bank of England, the Governor of the Bank of Canada and a certain Mr Osborne. But that comes later. Since 2008, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has gone to extraordinary lengths to stabilise the economy and support growth and employment. In fact, we have pursued what I have called the “paradox of policy”: doing in the short run, by encouraging spending through an unprecedentedly loose monetary policy, the opposite of what we need to do in the long run, which is to raise national saving. But that has been necessary to prevent an even worse recession, and without similar action from other central banks the world might have experienced a major depression. Now there are clear signs that a recovery in the UK, albeit modest, is underway.

Norges Bank will be an active owner and support companies through the climate transition, encourage climate reporting, and further develop our analysis of the fund's exposure to climate risks and opportunities. At the heart of our efforts is driving portfolio companies to net zero emissions by 2050. An operationally robust organisation helps safeguard the fund's assets. Geopolitical risk may be a greater source of uncertainty in the management of the fund in the years to come. Organised cyber-criminals are becoming increasingly specialised, sophisticated and well-funded. It is difficult to identify geopolitical events before they occur or lead to financial losses for the fund. For a large, global fund, there is nowhere to hide. Risk in the Government Pension Fund Global is reduced by diversifying its investments across asset classes, countries, sectors and companies. This should continue. The Sverdrup Committee, which is centre stage in this year's white paper, found that the fund is, in principle, well equipped for an uncertain future, but that its ability to deal with various changes and crises could be improved. We share this view and strive continuously to strengthen our situational understanding, develop our work on scenarios and stress testing, and improve our contingency planning. The Ministry of Finance announced in its white paper that it will be reviewing the matter of investing in unlisted equities. Norges Bank looks positively on this review, and we will return with our advice and assessments towards the end of the year.
As from 2006, it is assumed that nominal growth in general government expenditure will be approximately the same as nominal growth in general government revenues and that the real tax level will remain unchanged. Growth in the euro area and Japan was weaker towards the end of 2004 than projected in the November Inflation Report. It appears that it will take time for structural changes that have been implemented, in Germany for example, to contribute to an increase in output. In the US, on the other hand, economic growth remains firm and capacity utilisation is rising. Even though developments in the US economy are favourable, higher interest rates, among other factors, will gradually result in an increase in household saving. At the same time, the plans call for a lower rise in government spending. Weaker growth in US demand may imply slower growth also in other countries. In addition to the euro area, economic growth is expected to slow in the UK and Sweden. On balance, we assume that growth among our trading partners will slacken this year and stabilise in the years ahead. Growth in Asia, except Japan, and in Central and Eastern Europe is expected to moderate but to remain strong. Robust expansion in China and India has in particular pushed up prices for oil and other important commodities. Growth impulses to the Norwegian economy may therefore be somewhat stronger than the overall outlook for our most important trading partners would indicate.

Among the companies in our regional network, the share expecting a sharper rise in selling prices is larger than the share expecting a slower rise in prices. TNS Gallup’s business sentiment survey gives a more neutral impression. Nevertheless, both surveys indicate expectations of a sharper rise in prices in the service sector. The other Nordic countries have also experienced falling inflation. BIS Review 18/2005  3  Inflation in the Nordic countries has declined, and is now relatively low in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. According to the harmonised indices of consumer prices, inflation in February was around 1 per cent in Denmark, Sweden and Norway, while the rise in prices remained unchanged in Finland, as measured by 12-month changes. By comparison, price inflation in the euro area was close to 2 per cent. A common feature of the low level of inflation in the Nordic countries seems to be the trend in prices for imported consumer goods, even though developments have not been entirely the same in all the Nordic countries. The upturn is broadly based, and its effects are no less pronounced here in Rogaland. Demand is increasing in all sectors, particularly in oil-related industries and the construction sector. The market outlook for export-oriented and oil-related industries in the next six months is very bright and optimism is greater now than in the previous round of interviews. Domestically oriented manufacturing has not experienced large fluctuations in demand and output to the same extent.
Chart: Growth and returns  3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  In the long term, growth in dividends and firms’ cash flows will reflect underlying economic growth. In our analyses, this is clearly evident in global data: internationally, growth in firms’ cash flows and equity returns are correlated with growth in the global economy. Global economic growth in the coming years is expected to be below its historical level. This “pessimism” is partly related to the driving forces behind the low level of the real interest rate. If we use more conservative estimates of future dividend growth as inputs in our models, our estimate of the ERP falls to below 4 percentage points. There is considerable uncertainty around this estimate, and Norges Bank’s projections are based on a more cautious estimate of 3 percentage points. Chart: Equity allocation and expected return The Ministry of Finance has requested the Bank to provide estimates of the expected return on the fund ahead. Expected bond returns are considerably lower than in 2006, while the expected excess return on equities relative to bonds is somewhat higher as expected term premiums are lower. With an equity allocation of 60 percent, our best estimate of average real return is about 2 percent per year over the next ten years. If the equity allocation is increased to 75 percent, the expected real return rises to about 2½ percent.

Since 1900, the world’s equity markets have yielded a total return 120 times higher than the return on short-term government securities, bringing the average ERP to 5.7 percentage points per year.2] If we look at the period from 1970 to 2015, for which we have more complete data, the ERP is even higher. This cannot be explained by company fundamentals such as growth in earnings and dividends in this period, suggesting that market valuation of company profits has changed since 1970. Adjusting for the effect of this re-pricing, the long-term average ERP falls to just below 4 percentage points. Chart: Equity risk premium from different model specifications As we know, past performance is no guarantee of future results. In addition to using historical excess returns, the ERP can also be estimated using more forward-looking models. The most common approach is to estimate the ERP on the basis of current market prices and expected future dividends. We have analysed several different models of this type. On average, these models estimate an expected ERP of just below 6 percentage points. In all the models, the estimate is higher than it was ten years ago. The chart shows that model-based estimates of the ERP are uncertain and can change quickly. The estimates are particularly sensitive to assumptions for dividend growth and the risk-free rate. Growth in firms’ dividends has been particularly strong in the years since the financial crisis.
Based on the information currently available, the level of the liquidity in the market in 2007 (i)  The increase in base money,  (ii)  Coupon and principal redemption by the Treasury to the Central Bank,  (iii)  Treasury’s foreign exchange debt payments financed by its domestic currency borrowing  will have a lowering effect, while (i)  The Central Bank’s net foreign exchange purchases,  (ii)  Interest payments to be made by the Central Bank for reserve requirements and for excess liquidity absorbing transactions,  (iii)  The decline in Treasury cash accounts with the Central Bank will have an increasing effect on liquidity. Based on the assumption that the foreign exchange payments of the Treasury would exceed the foreign exchange inflow, and by taking the Central Bank FX buying auction program into consideration, the excess liquidity in the market is expected to continue within reasonable limits in 2007, even though temporary liquidity shortages may occur. However, as in previous years, it is not possible to make a precise forecast regarding the net foreign exchange payments of the Treasury, the amount of the Central Bank’s foreign currency purchases and the balance of Treasury cash accounts with the Central Bank. Depending on the variations of these variables, the market liquidity may change significantly.

Even in developed countries, there remains minorities that have limited access to basic financial services. For instance, a study conducted in the United Kingdom for the period 2002-2003 found that 2.8 million adults in households had no access to a bank account. In relation to this, regulators have to balance between the need for financial institutions to operate efficiently and the need to ensure access to basic financial services for both individuals and small businesses. In addition, rural communities have also tended to be underserved. The challenge confronting regulators is to ensure that all communities have access to financial services. This greater inclusion is vital to bring the lower income groups into the economic mainstream. An important aspect in the development of a consumer protection framework is to ensure that the framework remains relevant despite changes in economic and financial environment. Changes in the profile of consumers following changes in the demographic structure for example needs to be taken into account. In most communities, the ratio of retired population relative to working adults is expected to rise more steeply in the next decade. In countries with growing ageing populations, there is an increasing demand for financial planning, life insurance, wealth management and mutual fund investment services. Consumers' interests in these areas would need to be adequately safeguarded while financial literacy among the various target groups need to be actively promoted.
We should continue to develop flexible inflation targeting So, what conclusions should one draw from developments in recent years? How much do we need to reconsider and how much must we modify the monetary policy framework? I would reply: Somewhat, but perhaps less than one sometimes might think. I am fairly convinced that the flexible inflation-targeting policy conducted in many parts of the world has essentially been the right path to take, although it has not solved all of the problems. It appears to solve the problems it is intended to solve, without any serious side effects. I think that it is difficult, particularly with regard to Sweden, to overestimate the role played by inflation targeting in attaining better macroeconomic stability – together, of course, with farreaching changes especially in the fiscal policy area. Economic policy is now more disciplined and we were able to benefit from the stability and credibility this has provided in the most recent crisis. But it is also clear that the financial crisis highlighted some weaknesses and that the work on further developing the inflation-targeting policy must continue, both in the academic field and in central banks. For example, it is evident that there is reason to try to get to grips with and model the interaction between financial markets and the macro economy in a better way than before. Financial factors, and in particular credits and indebtedness, should play a larger role than before in our models and our thinking.

The foundation is the development in Hong Kong of multi-currency clearing and settlement systems operated on a real-time gross-settlement basis: so far we have systems for the US dollar, the euro, and the renminbi, in addition to the Hong Kong dollar; there is the possibility of replicating this for any number of currencies, should the demand arise. To make these systems available in Asian time to the rest of the region, we are progressively linking them to other cities in China and with other countries in the region: we established a link with Malaysia in 2006 and have agreed with Bank Indonesia to establish a similar link with Indonesia in 2010. I have no doubt that other links will follow. In addition, through our Regional CHATS service launched in July 2007, we have made available Hong Kong’s own clearing and settlement services throughout the region and beyond for cross-border payments. By June this year, 30 banks in Hong Kong had registered as service providers for services covering over 2,000 payment beneficiary points in 42 economies. BIS Review 93/2009  1  These are examples of how we are helping to build the hardware, or – to use the transport comparison – laying down the roads, tracks, junctions and interchanges, for regional financial markets. For the software and the actual traffic, it is of course the case that in a free-market economy such as Hong Kong's there is a limit to how much the government should take the lead.
On the other hand, the deployment of innovation hubs and accelerators, which takes me to the last part of my address, may successfully contribute to maximising and better understanding the benefits of new technologies for society. Hence, they could encourage financial innovation and/or increase the adoption of these technologies by the supervisory authorities in their functions. Indeed, regulatory sandboxes try to find a balance between these two objectives: they are defined as controlled and delimited environments in which technology-based financial innovations can be tested and monitored by the supervisors, while minimising the risks to the financial system and  5/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  consumers. This is the main tool adopted by Spanish financial authorities since 2020 to respond to the emergence of new technologies in finance. The Spanish sandbox has opened up new ways for supervisory authorities to engage and cooperate with the fintech sector, whose players frequently do not have at their disposal other ways of interacting with financial authorities. More importantly, the sandbox has increased the participating firms' understanding of regulation and supervisory expectations and improved their regulatory compliance through their close interaction with the supervisor. The sandbox has also enhanced the supervisors' understanding of both the new technologies applied by the financial sector and their underlying benefits and risks, as well as of the potential regulatory barriers faced by innovators. Four cohorts have been run up until now, and the Banco de España has already published reports with the conclusions of six projects.

05.05.2022  Opening remarks 112th Meeting of Central Bank Governors of CEMLA Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon: It gives me great pleasure to welcome you here today in Seville at the opening of the 112th Meeting of Central Bank Governors of CEMLA. Having been obliged to hold this event virtually in the past two years it is particularly gratifying to be able to meet in person, although we cannot consider the pandemic to be fully over just yet. It is a great honour for the Banco de España to organise this meeting jointly with CEMLA. I should like to take this opportunity to thank Governor Villar, Chair of the Governing Board of CEMLA, and Dr Ramos Francia, Director General of CEMLA, for their invitation to hold this event in Seville. This is the second time, after the 2003 edition, that the meeting will take place here in Seville, which, as the former president of Columbia César Gaviria recalled, Octavio Paz described as the most American of Europe’s cities. At a time when international cooperation is more important than ever, CEMLA stands as a magnificent example of a multilateral institution that fosters such cooperation.