samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This will not only facilitate the task of monetary policy, but will contribute to the continued reduction of unemployment in the euro area. It is the best recipe for sustainable robust growth. In addition, long-term growth perspectives for the euro area will be strengthened if Member States intensify fiscal consolidation. All in all, looking ahead, GDP for the euro area is expected to grow approximately close to trend potential growth. In a context of moderate but still substantial economic growth and of inflationary pressures, which are expected to weaken over the medium run, the Governing Council of the ECB decided on its Thursday 10 May’s meeting to adjust the key ECB rates by 25 basis points. More precisely, as our President Wim Duisenberg explained on behalf of the Governing Council, the decision was grounded on the following key monetary, financial and economical developments: On the monetary side, which constitutes as you may know the first pillar of the ECB monetary policy strategy, M3 growth no longer poses a risk to price stability. Such a statement results from the following considerations:  BIS Review 49/2001  1  -  M3 growth has been on a gradual downward trend since the beginning of last year, reflecting the tightening of the ECB monetary policy, which started in November 1999.

The Rehnberg Agreements of 1991–1992 resulted in significantly lower agreed wages than previously and – more importantly – they removed the price and wage clauses from the agreements, thus contributing to breaking the price and wage spiral. The Industrial Agreement of 1997 was another important change. The wage bargaining rounds of 1995 had resulted in relatively high wage increases of over 5 per cent per year for the following two years. This resulted in pressure from the government of the time on social partners to change wage formation through negotiation. The Industrial Agreement was exactly this kind of change. It assumes that the manufacturing sector, exposed as it is to international competition, should determine the level of wage increases. The Agreement also means that there are rules for the conducting of negotiations, for example that demands should be specified well ahead of the expiry of agreements and that the conclusion of negotiations should be supported by mediators, the so-called impartial chairman. There are also similar, but not as far-reaching, agreements in other sectors. The National Mediation Office, which was set up in 2000, was another important change. As is widely known, the Office’s tasks are to mediate in labour disputes and to actively promote efficient wage formation. The active promotion of efficient wage formation entails, among other tasks, ensuring that wage formation permits the strong growth of employment.
As I said earlier, the rise in the oil price in the past year has, more than previously sharp oil price increases, been due to a pickup in the demand for oil owing to world economic expansion. A rise in the price of oil that is largely a result of high international growth is likely to have less negative consequences for the real economy than a more outright supply shock. In addition to this, of course, the economies in the West - and particularly the Swedish one - are far less dependent on oil than they were during the oil crises in the 1970s. This should mean that the impact of oil price rises on both the real economy and inflation would be considerably more limited than what proved to be the case at that time. The assessment of most analysts today seems also to be that the increase in the oil price in 2004 could indeed curtail somewhat the international economic upswing but that the recovery will not be derailed. The impact of the oil price on inflation, too, should be less than before. Since the oil price shocks in the 1970s there has been a shift in the economic policy regime in many countries which has meant that low, stable inflation has become one of the central targets of economic policy.

Third, technology has advanced enormously in terms of both the capacity as well as sophistication. Countries have benefited immensely from these developments and, as a result, wide choices are available to savers & investors, borrowers & lenders together with greater flexibility & efficiency in the allocation of capital. Many institutions have sprung up in both money and capital markets. Similarly, the financial world has become more complicated with closer interconnectedness within and between individual firms, institutions and markets. In the meantime, the regulatory authorities have begun to focus on the achievement of specific objectives and found that they have to react to action by the financial markets by putting breaks to halt the rapid expansion, which would otherwise threaten the stability objectives. So, they brought in financial regulations to deal with the situations. Unabated by the tightening of financial regulation, financial markets continued to grow rapidly and ended up in crises and the world has learnt many lessons from financial crises. The outcome of the Mexican crisis in 1994, the Russian crisis from 1992 to 1995 and the Asian crisis from 1997 to 1998 was the further tightening of financial regulations and introduction of new ones. They were more reactionary and intrusive after the Enron and World Com failures in the USA. The Sarbanes Oxley regulations, which are considered somewhat draconian have come to stay, but may be with modifications.
The driving force behind growth can be very strong, as earlier economic upswings have shown. The situation in Sweden – some positive signs What is the situation in Sweden? The weak growth abroad at the end of last year led to an unexpectedly severe slowdown in Swedish exports. This means that the fall in GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was larger than we had predicted. The weak year-end has an impact on GDP growth for 2012, which was revised down in April in relation to the forecast made in February. At first glance, the GDP figure may appear ominous. But unlike exports, domestic demand during the fourth quarter was in line with the Riksbank’s forecast. Developments in the retail trade sector and indicators of confidence in the corporate and household sectors pointed to demand beginning to increase again. In addition, exports of goods increased strongly in January and recovered a large part of the fall that took place in the fourth quarter of 2011. 9  The support facilities currently available consist of three parts. The largest, the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility), was established in spring 2010 and has been built using guarantees from the euro area countries themselves. The second part is the EFSM (European Financial Stability Mechanism) which is based on a guarantee from the EU. The third part, which was also announced in spring 2010, was that the IMF could provide loans of up to EUR 250 billion.

I have on many occasions, at monetary policy meetings and in speeches, put forward the view that policy rate adjustments should normally be made gradually as a result of the uncertainty connected to forecasts and economic statistics. The well-known economists Orphanides and Williams say in an essay that this uncertainty indicates that one should not allow monetary policy to be influenced by contradictory information and statistics that are constantly revised. 10 Instead, one should normally allow monetary policy to change gradually. This limits the impact of contradictory information and statistics that are often revised. Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, said “Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape.” I can only agree with him. 10  Orphanides, Athanasios and John C. Williams, “Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity (2002), pp. 63–118. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9
The answer is an admission of reality: We juiced the trading and risk markets so extensively that they became somewhat addicted to our accommodation of their needs. You may remember the “taper tantrum” market operators threw last spring when we broached the idea of temperance. It went over about as big as would saying you wanted to ban Hurricanes and other happy-making libations here in New Orleans! Preventing market seizures and the DTs Until just recently, Herb Kelleher was chairman of the Dallas Fed board. I can safely say that I had the funniest chairman of any Federal Reserve Bank, and one of the smartest ever. Herb is not only the iconic founder of Southwest Airlines, but he is also an iconic consumer of Wild Turkey Bourbon. A wise man, he advised me that you can’t go from Wild Turkey to cold turkey overnight. So despite having argued against spiking the punchbowl to the degree we did, I have accepted that the prudent course of action and the best way to prevent the onset of market seizures and delirium tremens is to gradually reduce and eventually eliminate the flow of excess liquidity we have been supplying. The financial markets now seem to be unperturbed by and appear to be fully discounting the reduction pattern I am supporting. You should bear in mind that the Fed works directly only with depository institutions.

Richard W Fisher: Comments on tailored regulation and forward guidance (with reference to Dr Seuss, Strother Martin in Cool Hand Luke and other serious economists) Remarks by Mr Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the Louisiana Bankers Association 114th Annual Convention and Expo, New Orleans, Louisiana, 9 May 2014. *  *  *  The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. Thank you, Drake (Mills). Your service as president of the Federal Reserve Board’s Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council is greatly appreciated. You are kind to have a Texan come speak to you and your fellow Louisiana bankers, though this is not without precedent: The great blues guitarist and singer Clarence Garlow may have been born in Louisiana, but he had long lived in Texas before he recorded “Bon Ton Roula” in 1949 and gave New Orleans the reputation of the American city where les bon temps rouler. It would be hard to say that the good times are rolling for community bankers, though the pace and rhythm of the economies of the U.S. and Louisiana and your next-door neighbor, Texas, are getting stronger daily. I have been outspoken as to why our community banks feel besieged. Everyone in this room and their sister or brother knows what I preach about the continuing problem of banks considered “too big to fail” and the witches’ brew that was concocted by Congress, known as Dodd-Frank.
The official parity also determined the valuation of the gold stock on the SNB’s balance sheet. In order to eliminate these residual relics of the gold standard and enable a change in the SNB’s gold policy, the Swiss Constitution as well as the Coinage Act needed to be amended first. BIS Review 31/2005  1  Whereas during the 1980s and the early 1990s, the political climate did not permit such constitutional and legal amendments, the situation finally evolved in the late 1990s. The deterioration of Switzerland’s public finances led to a growing awareness of the opportunity costs of maintaining the existing structure of the SNB’s assets. The vast gold holdings increasingly gave rise to concern in the context of bearish market sentiments and of gold sales by other central banks. In November 1997, a partial revision of the Swiss National Bank Law increased the flexibility of the SNB’s reserve management activities. However, further legislative reforms were required to enable gold sales. In February 1997, a first decision regarding the demonetisation of gold was taken by the Committee for Economic Affairs and Taxation of the National Council, the lower chamber of the Swiss Parliament. Two months later, against the backdrop of mounting international criticism about Switzerland’s role in WWII, the President of the Confederation proposed to allocate some of the gains in the likely event of a gold revaluation to fund a Swiss Foundation for Solidarity which would provide assistance to persons in needs in Switzerland and abroad.

The pressure on interest rate margins will remain strong as long as interest rates remain exceptionally low. Thus, there will be strong incentives for banks to take on more risk. In the short term, an increase in affordability risk or interest rate risk may help to prevent a further decline in profitability. However, it would make banks more vulnerable to a large upward interest rate shock and to a correction on the mortgage and real estate markets. Greater risk-taking in lending could also lead to a renewed increase in momentum on the mortgage and real estate markets. This applies particularly to residential investment property, where upward pressure on prices could remain strong. If interest rates rise, there is the risk of a substantial price correction. This could result in credit losses at the banks that provide funding for such investors. This highlights the importance of the capital surpluses currently held by the domestically focused banks. Going forward, banks should set their risk appetite and their capital planning so as to ensure that they can absorb the losses that would arise under highly unfavourable but possible scenarios. Even under such scenarios, the banks must be able to perform their economically important functions – especially that of providing credit to the economy. The SNB will continue to monitor developments on the mortgage and real estate markets closely, paying particular attention to the residential investment property segment as well as to banks’ risk-taking in mortgage lending.
But the shock also leads to a large fall in the return on capital and in its price. Left unaddressed, this would lead to a sharp drop in bank profits, a decline in bank capital and a reduction in credit supply. If the leverage ratio were constant, that would reduce the amount of investment, capital and output. That effect is, however, moderated by expectations of a future recovery in the price of capital, which raises future returns on capital, thus allowing higher leverage, 13 higher bank profits and a degree of “self-healing” in the banking sector. When monetary policy is the sole instrument available (dashed red line), the nominal interest rate is cut briefly but returned to its steady-state value quickly. As described above, monetary policy is acting on aggregate demand and credit supply simultaneously. This supports output and capital but at the expense of a brief burst of inflation. The cut in the nominal interest rate helps boost the future loan-deposit spread but cannot prevent a fall in bank capital. Note also that the increase in the future loan-deposit spread pushes up the leverage ratio. The response is, though, quite different when the policy maker can deploy the macroprudential tool too (solid blue line). Now, the policy maker uses the bank levy/subsidy to prevent the sharp fall in bank capital. Monetary policy is then set to maintain output at its new, lower, efficient level with prices unchanged; that requires only a minimal change to the policy rate.

Zamani Abdul Ghani: Malaysia - an investment destination Speech by Mr Zamani Abdul Ghani, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Investors’ Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 22 June 2005. *  *  *  Bismillahirrahmanirrahim Your Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalamualaikum warahmatullah hiwabarakatuh and good morning, First of all, allow me to welcome all of you to this conference on "Malaysia: An Investment Destination" held in conjunction with the 30th IDB Board of Governors' Meeting. We are most heartened that there are representatives here this morning from more than one hundred global financial institutions and from over thirty countries. I would like to welcome all of you to Malaysia especially those who are here for the first time. I hope you have had a good rest after a journey from your respective countries because we have a very special program waiting for you. Indeed it is a great honour to be given the privilege to host this historic conference. The theme for the conference "Malaysia: An Investment Destination" is a fitting choice as we would highlight to you a wide range of investment opportunities available for you in Malaysia. This theme is most appropriate given a fast changing global and regional financial landscape, driven by financial liberalization and consolidation, economic transformation and more discerning and demanding investors. Ladies and gentlemen, We will do our best to ensure that this conference will be rewarding and useful for you.
The pandemic wreaked havoc on a large number of businesses, but decisive action by the Central Bank and the Government has provided a cushion against the blow, and now companies in general are well positioned – with the caveat that many tourism companies have yet to right themselves. It is also very important that Iceland’s external position be well-balanced. Our net external asset position is positive: we own more than we owe abroad. This means that foreign interest rate hikes will not erode our balance of payments. The exchange rate of the Icelandic króna is also close to equilibrium, and the financial system is no longer dependent on external financing as it once was. And last but not least, the Central Bank holds some 900 b.kr. in international reserves so as to secure Iceland’s balance of payments and prevent upheavals in the foreign exchange market. We have everything we need to protect Iceland against tidal surges from the international open sea. It is also important that Iceland is no longer a marginalised inflation incubator but is well aligned with its trading partners. A global battle against inflation is about to begin, with the world’s largest central banks tightening their monetary stance. And that will be of benefit to us in our quest to maintain stability. I would like to close with a well-known quote published by cartoonist Walt Kelly on 22 April 1970, the first Earth Day.

But to reap all the benefits, central banks have to be up to the technological challenge, which is huge. They have also to face a much larger competition in the new data Era, with a view to maintaining trust in public information. They have therefore to become Big Data players and not only observers. This requires significant efforts. Let me illustrate this in five avenues to adapt to the digital evolution. a)  The Big Data era implies large changes in the IT infrastructure and a strong  determination to address novel technical challenges and to build a forward-looking data management and analysis scheme. At the Banque de France, we are building a Data Lake that covers all the new data functionalities, from data collection to machine learning. 3 b)  Central banks should also organise themselves to answer the legitimate  request from academics to have access to a wide range of granular data, in a modern and researcher-friendly way. At the Banque de France, we opened just one year ago a Data Room which gives access to 600 million of anonymized series, and it has already attracted more than 30 research teams. Harvesting Big Data capacities is only beginning and central banks should be in the race. c)  Data quality should be maintained at the same time. There should not be with  central banks input/output process any ‘garbage in, garbage out’.
By the middle of this century, the median age of the world population is expected to increase by 10 years to 36 years. Globally, the proportion of persons aged 60 years and older is forecast to double. The fastest growing group of the older population is made up of those who are 80 years old or more. This age category is projected to increase more than five-fold over the next 50 years. While ageing is indeed a global phenomenon, it is likely to represent a more onerous challenge for developing countries than for developed ones. The majority of persons aged 60 and over will be found increasingly in developing countries; and as the pace of population ageing is much faster in these countries, they will have less time to adjust to its effects than the developed countries. Developing countries, moreover, will have to meet this challenge starting from a lower level of socio-economic development. For instance, the elderly in developing countries will be living mostly in rural areas and hence will face additional difficulties compared to their counterparts in developed countries who tend to live in urban centres. These differences imply that the policymaking capacity of developing countries will be tested more severely. More specifically, there will be important decisions to take regarding social security schemes, particularly traditional pension systems in which today’s workers pay for the benefits of today’s retirees.

Michael C Bonello: Population ageing - a major challenge for policymakers Speech by Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the opening session of two workshops on pension reform, organised in Floriana, Malta, by the World Bank Institute, 9 June 2003. *  *  *  I should first of all like to thank the World Bank Institute for choosing Malta as the venue for this Workshop and to welcome you all to our country. Your presence here continues a centuries-old tradition whereby Malta exploits its location at the centre of the Mediterranean and its reputation for hospitality to bring people and ideas together. Malta is currently undergoing a rapid transformation in a bid to seize the opportunities arising from accession to the European Union and from the further consolidation of its trading relationship with its Southern and Eastern neighbours. The economy, albeit small, has a number of vibrant sectors ranging from high-tech manufacturing to world-class conference tourism. As in the case with many other countries, however, the long-term prospects for economic development in Malta will be inevitably affected by the impact of population ageing. Given that the population support ratio, defined as the number of persons of working age to those of pension age, is expected to halve over the next 25 years to just over 2, this impact is likely to be significant. The global and regional dimensions of population ageing Malta is by no means an exception in this regard.