samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On the basis of this rationale, it is my view that regional financial cooperation should move progressively forward, with the process being further strengthened and the work becoming more focused, aimed at producing more tangible results. Let me now spare with you my thoughts on the way forward. On this issue, I should say at the outset that the points I am going to make here are not new, and some of them are probably already familiar to you. The first is the Chiang Mai Initiative or CMI. CMI was created conceptually as a short-term financing facility to help participating members manage their balance of payments shortfalls at a time of financial distress. Although the economies of East Asia are now much stronger than five years ago, CMI should continue to remain a key pillar of regional financial cooperation. This is because it is important for the region to have its own liquidity arrangement that can be called upon when the need arises. With the crisis now behind us, we do have time to think on how best to improve the existing facility. And, one way we can approach this is to look for ways we can credibly turn the existing arrangement into a facility that emphasizes a greater level of resource commitment by participating members. This is to say that requesting members should be in a position to count on this facility when the need arises. Looking at the improvement from this angle, I think there are three ways we can reflect upon.

William C Dudley: Unconventional monetary policies and central bank independence Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Bank of Mexico international conference “Central bank independence – Progress and challenges”, Mexico City, 15 October 2013. *  *  *  It is a pleasure to be here today. Does the implementation of unconventional monetary policies pose a threat to central bank independence? My short answer, which I will elaborate on, is that while the threat is low, central bankers need to be cognizant of such risks, and clearly explain the motivations for their actions in order to mitigate such risks. The best way for central banks to maintain their independence is to use all their available monetary policy tools to best achieve their objectives. Because the use of our unconventional monetary policy tools has been in pursuit of our dual mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability, I do not see the use of these tools as creating significant new risks to our independence. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System. To start, it is important to be clear on what we mean by unconventional monetary policies.
Mr. Carse gives a banking supervisor’s perspective on control issues in financial institutions Speech by the Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Mr. David Carse, at the BanComp ’98 conference in Hong Kong on 25/5/98. I am pleased to be here this morning to speak to you at the start of this conference on internal controls and anti-money laundering. The advertised title of my speech is “Understanding the role and needs of the regulator in all authorised financial institutions”. This is a very broad subject and I have therefore narrowed it down to focus on the banking supervisor’s perspective on control issues in financial institutions. I am sure there are many compliance and audit professionals in the audience today, so I trust I should not have too hard a hard job persuading you that good internal controls are not only important, but crucial to the success of financial institutions. Just consider, for example, what poor internal controls did for BCCI, Daiwa Bank and Barings. So what advice can I offer you today to help you ensure that your institution will not meet the same fate? Well, what I will do is to share with you my thoughts on the key elements of a financial institution’s control systems, and highlight some of the areas where other institutions have gone horribly wrong. I will also talk about one of the key areas of a financial institution’s controls its controls against being used for money laundering.

President Reagan thought that one element of the American dream is “the opportunity to grow, create wealth, and build a better life for those who follow,” while President Obama has described it as follows: “A child’s course in life should be determined not by the zip code she’s born in, but by the strength of her work ethic and the scope of her dreams.” One’s destination in life should not depend on where the journey begins. Equal opportunity does not imply equal outcomes – some people may work harder, be more fortunate in terms of their disposition and endowments, or just be luckier in how their lives evolve. But it does require that income mobility – in particular, upward mobility – be widely evident and remain part of the fabric of the nation. It is important to keep in mind the distinction between income mobility and income inequality. Income mobility is a dynamic concept – the degree to which individuals or families can move  1  Rajashri Chakrabarti, Andrew Haughwout, Giorgio Topa, Joseph Tracy and Wilbert van der Klaauw assisted in preparing these remarks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  up or down in the income distribution over time. Income inequality is a static concept – how unequal are individual or family incomes at a particular point in time. Recognizing that rising income inequality in the United States is an important issue, my focus today will be mainly on income mobility. I don’t think the issue of income mobility receives the attention it deserves.
The private sector and a business recovery supported the growth of the UK economy following the early 1990s recession. And economic conditions we currently face are not that dissimilar from the world of the mid-1990s. If anything, the external stimulus to growth is stronger – the global economy has bounced back more strongly from the recent downturn and the sterling exchange has depreciated more sharply and at an earlier stage of the cycle than in the early 1990s. There is a worry that domestic demand could be held back by the legacy of the financial crisis and public sector deficit reduction. But that does not appear to be reflected in the most recent data for domestic demand and from the evidence on business investment intentions. And while we should expect a relatively muted recovery in consumer spending, the impact of high household debt levels should not be overstated. This was a  10  Public sector net borrowing was 7.7% of GDP in 1993/4, moving towards a surplus of 0.5% in 1998/9, a swing of 8.2% in the public sector financial balance as a share of GDP. The Budget plans show a 9 percentage point swing – from borrowing of 10.1% in the current financial year to 1.1% in 2015/6. 8  BIS Review 158/2010  major concern in the early 1990s too, when repossessions and mortgage arrears were higher than we have seen through this recession.

Indeed, it is worth noting that in 1994,  12  This lack of spare capacity in firms is hard to reconcile with the relatively sharp drop in GDP in the recession and the resilience of employment. However, it is possible that future data revisions may change the profile of GDP during the recession. It is also possible that underlying productivity growth trends were overestimated during the long expansion of the 1990s and 2000s, and that the economy was further above capacity in 2006/7 than was appreciated at the time. 10  BIS Review 158/2010  when the early 90s fiscal consolidation began, the UK economy grew by over 4%, which is still the strongest rate of GDP growth we have seen in any calendar year since the late 1980s. The strength of growth surprised forecasters, who had greatly underestimated the momentum of growth which would be generated by a rebound in private sector demand, a strong world economy and a competitive exchange rate. 13 There is a risk that we are making the same mistake again because of the preoccupation with downside risks following the financial crisis. The second key argument is that higher interest rates should help to exert a brake on abovetarget inflation and keep inflation expectations anchored around the 2% target. There are significant upside risks to the forecast recently published in the Bank’s Inflation Report which could sustain the period of above-target inflation into 2012 and 2013.
Mervyn King: Banking and the Bank of England Speech by Mr Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, to the British Bankers Association, London, Tuesday 10 June 2008. *  *  *  After a decade or more of economic stability, we are now facing a period of rising inflation and falling economic growth. Part of the reason for this change of economic weather is that we are passing through the most prolonged period of financial turmoil that most of us can remember. Whether, as the IMF has argued, it is the worst period of financial stress since the 1930s is too early to judge. After all, the crisis is not yet over. Since last August there has been a great deal of soul-searching about what we all might have done differently, both before and after 9 August when the crisis hit. And in circumstances where livelihoods are at risk it was inevitable that the “blame game” was played. Unfortunately, although such a game helped to fill newspaper columns, it generated more heat than light. So today I want to step back. Financial crises have been a regular, and disturbing, feature of our and other developed economies for as long any one can remember. They are as frequent now as in the nineteenth century, when Henry Thornton and Walter Bagehot were developing their ideas about how central banks could prevent instability in the banking system.

That is why requiring financial institutions to hold more capital to act as a shock absorber, while reducing the procyclical nature of existing capital requirements, may offer a balance between excessively burdensome regulation and excessive risk-taking. 4  BIS Review 75/2008  The proposals in the Banking Bill, and the other changes I have discussed today, will take us an important step forward in the creation of a framework for financial stability. But they will not be the final answer to a difficult, at times seemingly intractable, problem of how to change the incentives of both private and public actors to reduce the frequency and cost of financial crises. For that we will all need to do a lot more thinking. It is important that we do find the right solution. An efficient and thriving banking sector which can intermediate saving and investment, both domestically and internationally, is essential to our economic prosperity. BIS Review 75/2008  5
Low domestic cost pressure In other words, the outlook from the autumn has so far remained largely intact, and economic activity is strengthening as expected. The situation is different for domestic cost pressure. In this respect, since the middle of autumn 2003, new data has gradually been received that has warranted changes in our view of the inflation situation. These relate to the labour market, which has been weaker than expected with consequences for our assessments of wage developments, to productivity, which has risen more than anticipated, with lower cost pressure as a result, and finally to actual inflation, which has been lower than expected, with effects also on inflation expectations, which have declined somewhat. Employment growth has therefore been weaker than expected, particularly at the end of last year. The same applies to the number of hours worked. The weak employment growth coupled with a lower number of labour market policy measures has resulted in higher unemployment. This rose from 4.5 per cent in February last year to 6.0 per cent in February this year. Business tendency data and other indicators currently suggest that employment growth in the private sector will be relatively weak in 2004. There are some signs that the labour market may be about to turn, but these are weak. Very recently, for example, the number of new job vacancies has increased slightly and redundancy notices have declined.

It seems unlikely, however, that the upswing could be derailed entirely for this reason. As regards inflationary pressure, there are a number of question marks as I mentioned earlier. We don’t know how long the recent rise in productivity will last. In the inflation outlook that I have presented, some consideration has been given to the new data. At the same time, there are good arguments pointing to both higher and lower productivity growth. The same applies to our view of international inflation. As regards wages, there are also risks on the upside, which are essentially related to the way in which wage formation in Sweden is conducted. It can still not be ruled out entirely that the wage bargaining round will be derailed. Should the outcomes prove higher than expected, it is likely to have an impact on the future level of interest rates. So far I have not said anything about the exchange rate. There may be reason to touch upon this. For a long time, we have expected a krona appreciation that over the course of the forecast period would bring us to levels approximately in line with what we believe to be appropriate in the long term, given mainly the competitiveness of the Swedish economy. During the period 2002-2003 as a whole, the krona strengthened roughly as expected. Recently, however, this strengthening has been curbed. One reason for this appears to be expected relative interest rates, where there has been a certain shift since the autumn.
A full normalization of credit demand and supply conditions will have to wait until the dust settles in the international financial scenario, to allow more clarity about global and domestic growth prospects. These risk factors have a direct incidence on credit risk premiums implicit in banking operations. We can see that the monetary policy action has more than offset the increase in risk premiums, resulting in a significant drop in credit costs, thus mitigating the effects that the global crisis has had on our economy. One important aspect of the access to credit, aside from its cost, draws from the effect of the environment of uncertainty and economic weakness on the credit approval conditions and credit demand. In these dimensions, we have recently seen signs of stabilization. Internationally, the various indicators of uncertainty and risk in global financial markets, while remain relatively high, have continued to fall. Domestically, the evidence at hand from the Banking Credit Survey for the second quarter of this year reveals that, on average, banking institutions have already stopped tightening their lending standards and perceive early signs of a recovery of the demand for credit. This is particularly evident in the mortgage segment, suggesting that the levels of the long-term interest rates on these loans are not necessarily holding back the demand for housing credit (figure 5).

Deposit rates dropped significantly at maturities of one year or more, while the rates on our instruments at terms of two or more years, also fell after the announcements. One issue that has been on the table, not only in Chile but in the developed world and a number of emerging economies as well, is precisely the behavior of longer-term interest rates. Unlike those at very short term, which are largely arbitraged by the monetary policy stance, interest rates on long term government bonds are more influenced by, among other factors, the appetite for risk, the evolution of interest rates around the world and the widespread uncertainty prevailing in the economy. This last point is connected with expectations for long-term inflation and growth and fiscal solvency prospects, with particular strength in those economies that have had to embark in costly financial packages and bank bail-out programs, thereby multiplying their levels of public debt. In some emerging economies, and even in some developed ones, this increased debt has spurred doubts about the sustainability of their fiscal accounts and monetary arrangements, questioning their capacity to grow in the coming years. Although luckily, and thanks to the efforts made, the Chilean economy is not in such a situation, the determination of the long-term interest rates does depend indisputably not only on the prospects for growth and inflation – and thus on monetary policy – but also on portfolio decisions of domestic agents and the appetite for risk. Developments early this year are very illustrative.
Christine Lagarde: IMFC statement Statement by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the forty-seventh meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, IMF Spring Meetings, Washington DC, 14 April 2023. ***  Introduction Since the October meeting, the global economic outlook has improved on the back of a gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks, declining energy prices, and the recovery of the Chinese economy following the lifting of pandemic-related containment measures. Global inflation has also been declining since it peaked in summer 2022, supported by easing supply constraints, as well as by the tightening of monetary policy among advanced economies. However, the recovery prospects for the global economy remain fragile amid continued uncertainty, fuelled by Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine, and the possibility that pressures in global energy and food markets may reappear, leading to renewed price spikes and higher inflation. Resilient labour markets and strong wage growth, especially in advanced economies, suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong. At the same time, other factors that may accelerate disinflation include: persistently elevated financial market tensions, falling energy prices, and a weakening of demand, owing also in part to a stronger deceleration of bank credit or a stronger than projected transmission of monetary policy. As inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, the Governing Council of the ECB decided in March to raise the key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the total increase since July 2022 to 350 basis points.

I take this opportunity to invite all the economic agents to consider the benefits, that our national currency provides, impassively, as the best long-term instrument for protecting their savings and as the greatest buffer to wealth volatility. To Albania, the Lek has been, is and will remain a successful currency. The Lek serves as an anchor for all our European initiatives. In the last 17 years, the Lek has managed to withstand the inflationary pressures and the pressures deriving from the foreign markets. Therefore, it should be left alone. It should move freely on its path, concurrent with the market demand and supply. The Lek is the icon of the Albanian economy that will guide us through the European gates. I take this opportunity to invite the media to comprehend this message and transmit it to the public at large. Before giving the floor to our dear friend, I would like to briefly introduce Governor Yilmaz. Mr. Yilmaz obtained his BA in Economics from the City University of London and his MA degree from the University College, University of London. Mr. Yilmaz started to work in the Foreign Exchange Department at the Central Bank of Turkey in 1980. After a long and successful career, Mr. Yilmaz was appointed Executive Director of the Workers’ Remittances (Non-Residents FX Deposits) Department in 2002. One year later, in the Shareholders Ordinary General Meeting held on 7th April 2003, Mr. Yilmaz was elected Member of the Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
City Week – London, 24 April 2023 The role of central banks in the “macroeconomics of climate change”  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France  Page 1 sur 8 Ladies and Gentlemen, It is once more a great pleasure and honour for me to give a keynote speech today at the City Week in London, held in the venerable Guildhall. It is no longer possible to seriously question the severe effects of climate change, but the role of central banks in this area has become an increasing focus of discussion. Let me start by two very great temptations that have become typical pitfalls here. Neither magic wand, nor ostrich policies We could call the first of these the « magic wand temptation » in which central banks are seen as being able to curb climate change on their own. I want to be crystal clear on this: central banks cannot be the only green game in town, they cannot replace sound public policies and corporate transition plans. One necessary step for public policies is to put a price on carbon: it is the only signal capable of aligning climate imperatives with economic agents’ decisions. It is the only way to make more green projects profitable; and green finance without enough green projects risks running idle.

As oil and gas production gradually dwindles, Norway’s petroleum wealth will continue to generate profits in the form of income from the fund. Chart: Per capita GDP. Norway and other countries – 1970 and 2015 The discovery of oil marked the beginning of an extraordinary era for the Norwegian economy. Before oil was discovered, the income level in Norway was low compared with other western countries. Today, the picture has been reversed. We have gradually caught up with the wealthiest countries. Norway’s GDP per capita is one of the highest in the world. Chart: The 1000-krone banknote (The Ocean Wave) For over a thousand years, the sea has been the source of our wealth and the basis of our contact with the rest of the world. New industries and new technology are redefining our coastal and maritime economy. When the Norwegian economy has been hit by waves, we have used the force of those waves to move forward. And we will continue to do so in the years ahead. The shipping industry is one of the world’s most advanced in terms of developing energy-efficient vessels. The pharmaceutical industry is conducting research into the effect of marine-derived products on a variety of diseases. Wind and wave power will be sources of clean and renewable energy. At the same time, climate change and the loss of biodiversity present challenges that must be met. A continued commitment to maritime and marine research in the years ahead will be an important contribution to maintaining sustainable development.