samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Moreover, the outlook regarding the course of the factors that pose risk to achieving the inflation target, which are outside the area of impact of monetary policy is summarized in the introduction section and the likely policy reaction against such risks is discussed. These risk factors are listed as the course of oil prices, housing price increases, the acceleration in price increases of those items, which are determinant in the inflation of the goods group, such as fresh fruits, oil, basic metals and gold, global risk appetite and international liquidity conditions. Detailed analyses of developments in inflation, supply-demand, the financial sector and public finance, which have been examined within the framework of the information they contain relating to the medium-term tendency of inflation are presented in the following four chapters. In the last chapter of the Inflation Report, updated assumptions on fundamental macroeconomic variables are compared and contrasted with the assumptions of the previous Inflation Report and inflation and the output gap forecasts produced on the basis of these assumptions are analyzed. BIS Review 67/2006  1  Furthermore, the likely risks that may lead to an apparent upward or downward deviation in inflation forecasts are explicated in detail. In this Inflation Report, a number of boxes have been prepared in order to shed light on certain subjects of interest as in the previous Report.

Therefore the developments in these expectations play an important role in Central Bank analyses and evaluations. In this framework, analyzing the inflation expectations for the next 12 months and 24 months as of April, the following points emerge: Though consumer inflation expectations for the next twelve months have declined, the rate of decline has been slowing down significantly since February and expectations have to some extent been  6  BIS Review 67/2006  following a horizontal course. The fact that long-term consumer expectations relating to the next 12 and 24 months are slightly above the targets is interpreted as a development that requires prudence with respect to the falling inflation process. Nevertheless, the course of longer-term expectations at low levels is an encouraging development as regards the success of inflation targeting (Graph 9). Graph 9. CPI Expectations Regarding Next 12 and 24 Month Periods (Annual Percentage Change)  9 Next 12-Month  8  Next 24-Month  7 6 5 4 Apr-06  Feb-06  Dec-05  Oct-05  Aug-05  Jun-05  Apr-05  Feb-05  Dec-04  3  Source: CBRT. Supply and demand developments Supply-demand balance Distinguished Guests, At this point, I would like to touch on our evaluations relating to supply and demand developments in the light of national income data released at the end of March. In the last quarter of 2005, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 9.5 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. Hence, GDP growth was realized as 7.4 percent throughout 2005.
Monetary policy steers inflation in the medium and long term and can in addition contribute to smoothing fluctuations in output and employment. The central government budget – growth in government expenditure – influences the real krone exchange rate and the size of the internationally exposed sector in the long term. The fiscal rule – the fiscal policy guidelines – enhances the predictability of petroleum revenue spending in the Norwegian economy even when the budget from one year to the next is used to stabilise economic developments and even when the automatic stabilisers are allowed to operate. A fairly steady phasing-in of petroleum revenues over time curbs the impact on the krone and reduces the risk of abrupt and sizeable structural shifts between the international exposed and sheltered sectors. In this way, the framework contributes to more stable expectations concerning, among other things, developments in the krone exchange rate and competitiveness. BIS Review 60/2009  1  The krone floats and fluctuates somewhat, and has shown a tendency to appreciate in favourable times and fall in value in response to negative shocks. Nonetheless, budgetary policy and the petroleum fund mechanism contribute to stability in the krone. This can be seen clearly when comparing movements in the krone in recent years with currencies of other open economies with substantial exports of raw materials, such as Australia and New Zealand. The economic turnaround in Norway occurred just over a year ago. House prices had started to fall, growth in consumption subsequently came to a halt and housing starts declined.

Gordon, Paul, Piotr Skolimowski and Craig Stirling (2019), “Lagarde’s ECB Toolkit Threatened as Subzero Skepticism Grows”, Bloomberg, 31 October. Jansson, Per (2016), “Time to scrap the inflation target?”, speech at Swedbank, Stockholm, 7 December. Jansson, Per (2017), “The ideological debate on monetary policy – lessons from developments in Sweden”, speech at Fores, Stockholm, 6 December. Jansson, Per (2018), “Monetary policy in less favourable times – what are the options?”, speech at Insurance Sweden, Stockholm, 4 December. Milne, Richard (2019), “Riksbank set to exit negative rates with December rise”, article in Financial Times, 24 October. 14 [17]  Orphanides, Athanasios and John C. Williams (2003), “Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy”, NBER Working Paper No. w9884. Weiss, Ittay (2017), “Nothing matters: how the invention of zero helped create modern mathematics”, The Conversation, 20 September, https://theconversation.com/nothing-matters-how-the-invention-of-zero-helped-create-modernmathematics-84232  15 [17]  Figure 1. Inflation, 1350-2018 CPI, annual percentage change 300  300 CPI  200  200  100  100  0  0  -100 1350  1450  1550  1650  1750  1850  1950  -100  Source: The Riksbank  Figure 2. Share of employed persons in industry and mining and private service sector respectively Per cent  35  35 Private services Industry and mining  30  30  25  25  20  20  15  15  10  10  5  80  85  90  95  00  05  10  15  5  Note.
A bombardment of high definition images of nature in photographs and film, may have numbed some of us to nature’s wonders. For example, I am not sure how many of us are still captivated or awed anymore by the sight on television of yet another leopard pursuing its lunch. The human hand makes for a much more intimate experience of nature. Back in the days of Maria Merian and General Farquhar, there was no other way of recording the world around us. Now we are seeing a return to paint and other traditional art forms. I am told that painting in general is the art medium that has shown the biggest resurgence recently. Some of the paintings in this exhibition look like photographs, which is a mark of the skill 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  of contemporary artists. Malaysian painters are as good as any in this category, and they have no shortage of nature at their disposal to paint, compared with their counterparts in New York, London or Shanghai. We should all be celebrating the world around us, not just as artists or eco-tourists, but as inhabitants of Planet Earth. These paintings bring us up close and personal with nature, as it should be. The skilled precision of the work featured by the artists does not diminish the connection and passion that the artists have with and for their subjects. Indeed, it enhances our experience viewing these beautifully executed pieces. Please also do take some time to read the statements by the artists.

The banking system currently comprises 16 operating institutions, with total assets of around 53 per cent of the country’s GDP. The system is well capitalized and liquid. Its intermediation role is increasing. The lending activity although small (accounting for around 23 percent of total banking assets and around 12 percent of GDP), is strongly picking up. Other financial institutions are trying hard to increase and modernize their activity. However, many problems primarily legal and property rights related which are outside financial sector are making it difficult for them to increase their credit lines. Microfinance has proved to be a more effective way to deal with these problems. With its inventive formulas it makes financial resources become accessible to small and medium businesses that account for most of aggregate production during these development stages. These resources are often used to finance small projects in areas like agriculture, livestock or services like handicraft, small food stores etc. The first microfinance institutions in Albania, were set up in 1994 as development projects co-financed by the Albanian Government and the World Bank. 13 donors cooperate with the Albanian government in supporting the development of SME-s in Albania. From 1992 a large share of funds has been allocated in Albania as donation, but only a portion has been spent. Most of these funds has been  BIS Review 88/2005  1  given as soft loans for Albanian government. Aid represents around 30 % and only 5 % are direct commercial loans to co-finance the private investment.
It is therefore time for us to reflect on these situations and try to be a step ahead. That is what saves financial markets – being a step ahead! I remember in February 2007, our Central Bank introduced an additional 1% provision for all performing loans of banks, because we realized that there was bubble that was forming. But, the public and media reaction to that policy action was somewhat rough. The next day’s newspaper headlines said that Cabraal has delivered a kidney punch to the banks; some claimed that we were killing the industry; others lamented that we are making it difficult for the banks unnecessarily. Today, one year and 2 months later, people realize that our anticipation has saved the day. We don't want everyone to get up and shout and acknowledge it. But perhaps those of you who are directors of finance companies, as persons who are responsible for about 5% of the financial system of this country, would now realize that, there are certain steps that need to be taken early in order to safeguard the entire industry. Sometimes, some people tell us, “our shareholders have been the ones who have made us. Our depositors have been continuously supported us. Therefore, we are responsible to our shareholders and depositors, and nobody else”. Perhaps, there is some truth in that statement. But, think about this a little more deeply. What would happen if one finance company fails?

Remember that your personal liability, will also be at stake in case of failure and such loss can be quite substantial if you have not taken the right steps. So, take the interest; take the time to study, and, be diligent in your activities. Actually, if you do that, you will find that it is much better for your Company, much safer for yourself, much easier for the regulator, and much easier for the market. My dear friends, risk can be a sudden occurrence. Risk can, at the same time, be slow in coming. You don’t know which risk is there, but you have to be alive to risk. Today, management is all about risk management. What are the risks in doing something? What will be the repercussions? What will be the dangers? You have to think-safety first, just like how it is said at some of the modern construction sites. When you go to some construction sites, you see a large sign that says “safety first”. Why? Because you have to survive before you are able to construct, and accidents can be both painful and costly. In looking at safety, in the case of financial institutions, the important factor is to focus on liquidity management. You may be profitable. You may be having a very good plan for the future. But if you do not have liquidity, i.e., if you do not have cash to meet your obligations, you cannot survive. It is like a very fit athlete who can run very fast.
The latter is also connected with globalisation through the increased competition and changes in production patterns. 8  9  However, the value of foreigners’ assets in the form of direct investment in Sweden is high from both a Nordic and a European perspective. Foreign direct investment in Sweden amounted to around 47 per cent of GDP in 2004, which can be compared with just over 30 per cent in the EU. ` SEB, ”Kronsyn”, 22 March 2006. 4  BIS Review 35/2006  Globalisation and imbalances in the world economy The deregulated international capital market has meant that countries have to a much greater extent than before been able to finance consumption and investment via borrowing abroad. This could indicate that trade imbalances are something we have to live with in a world with deregulated capital markets and a greater degree of free trade than before. At the same time, risks of rapid adjustments may be built up. In connection with the slowdown in economic activity in 2000-2001, US economic policy was shifted in a more expansionary direction. Income tax was lowered and public expenditure increased, at the same time as the key rate was cut to an all-time low. This entailed a strong increase in demand, which also stimulated exports in other countries – the United States acted as growth engine for the world economy. The consequence of this was that the US current account deficit increased rapidly; in 2005 it amounted to 6.4 per cent of GDP.

We continue to place an emphasis on promoting the global competitiveness of Thai businesses, while ensuring the integrity of the economic and financial system as a whole, the very foundation of consumer and business confidence. The key challenge this year for the BOT and other policymakers is to preserve the right balance of policy mix, which in turn demands both intra- and inter-agency cooperation. Our common goal is to promote a sustainable growth path and ensure a high standard of living for all Thais. Economic developments and policy implementation in 2012 Last year, the Thai economy had to grapple with the stagnating global economy, volatile capital flows, and challenges in recovering from the flood crisis. Notwithstanding these difficulties, the economy proved to be resilient and flexible enough to withstand various shocks and uncertainties. Indeed, robust domestic demand has become the main engine of growth amid the softening global economy, helped in part by government stimulus measures. Overall economic activities consequently improved, and I would like to thank all parties for their collective efforts. On the monetary policy front last year, a greater emphasis was placed on risks to growth, which justified the accommodative monetary policy stance throughout 2012. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the policy interest rate twice by a total of 0.50 percentage points. The first cut took place earlier in the year, and was designed to help speed up economic recovery after the severe flood.
This is not a traditional mission for a central bank: it is usually focused on monetary policy and financial stability. Yet, I believe that all these missions go hand in hand: whether we are working towards financial inclusion or price stability, the overarching goal is the same – supporting inclusive and sustainable economic growth. On financial inclusion, the role of Banque de France has always been to support the  efforts of public authorities and of the private financial sector in helping widening access to financial services. And this support is provided to help meet 3 main objectives: improving fair access , preventing inequalities of treatment and improving financial 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  literacy. Let me take a few examples. To help Improve fair access, Banque de France is part of the “right to an account” procedure set up by French law. If a bank refuses to open a bank account to a client, he or she can make a request to us and we will designate a bank within 24 hours. This specific bank account will provide basic services free of charge. In 2018, 50000 people made use of that right. Reducing the usage cost of a bank account is also essential for financial inclusion. And “fragile” clients, for instance because of low resources or a bad credit history, are the most likely to pay fees because of issues with their accounts – 300 euros a year on average.

A single failure of a high magnitude eliminates massive and hard-earned gains made over many years. That is why performance is so vital and important. It is therefore timely that the Management Accountants are focusing on the re-positioning of the profession. It is wise that you are talking about how to project yourselves and promote yourselves in the future. It is refreshing that you are talking with your stakeholders and then planning your repositioning, because the relevance of your position is of paramount importance, if you are to survive and thrive. My learning as a Chartered Accountant as well as a Management Accountant helped me a great deal in my activities and in my performance over the years. I believe my own successes can be traced to the roots of such learning, education, and training. Like me, I am sure we have all benefited immensely by the initial training and guidance we have received from our respective institutes. Let us now build on those foundations and strengths and move forward with confidence and certainty even in the midst of tremendous challenges and competition. I am sure our profession, notwithstanding the numerous changes that are taking place, would remain relevant to the business and commercial world. We owe it to our respective economies to keep it that way. I congratulate all of you for the interest you are taking and the contribution you are making. I wish you all success and prosperity. BIS Review 10/2008  3
Corporate debt shows a similar pattern, increasing along with economic activity, without any widespread deterioration of financial indicators. Thus, it is our view that the Chilean financial system has not suffered any material increase of its systemic vulnerabilities. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  However, our Financial Stability Report also identifies some elements that might be sources of risk and that must be closely monitored. The construction and real estate sector has been strong lately. Activity in the real estate market has had stronger sales as a counterpart, for both housing and commercial use. While the vacancy rate in the commercial sector has remained low, the expected substantial expansion of supply and its inertia, especially in top-quality offices, is one factor that must be monitored closely given the risk scenarios facing economic activity. The evaluation of any new project should take this element into consideration. In the same token, aggregate housing prices have evolved in line with the economy’s level of interest rates and income. However, at some higher-priced districts, prices are still outgrowing their historic trends, possibly due to limited land available. It is important to keep in mind that the materialization of negative risk scenarios could lead to a breakdown in current price trends. The potential implications of this are price adjustments influencing the returns of executed projects and, additionally, the collaterals backing mortgage loans. With respect to household debt, two factors deserve careful attention. One is its rate of expansion.

As in late 2011, the main effects of these tensions in emerging economies, aside from lower commodity prices, have been the depreciation of their currencies, fallen stock prices and increased risk premiums on their external bonds. Chile has not been spared, although as of the statistical closing of these Reports the effects have been limited. Compared with March, the peso/dollar parity has depreciated somewhat below 5 percent; the stock market, as measured by the selected price index IPSA in pesos, has lost over 7 percent, and the sovereign premiums of Chilean CDS have risen nearly 40 basis points. Money markets, meanwhile, have operated normally. In contrast with the developed world, in Chile domestic output and demand are still strong. In the first quarter, y-o-y GDP growth exceeded March’s forecasts. However, in quarter-to-quarter terms it lost strength with respect to late 2011 and grew according to trend. Inflation has been lower than expected, which, combined with the drop in international fuel prices, has reduced the risks for its short-term evolution. In general, medium-term inflationary risks are still latent because domestic markets remain tight. In this context, the Board has kept the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) at 5 percent since January, and has conditioned its future movements to the implications of domestic and external conditions on the inflation outlook. Chile is on a healthy position to confront further deterioration of the global scenario.
The advantages arising from coordination between both policies would suggest assigning the central bank with a pivotal role in the pursuit of macro-prudential policies. This has been the path followed to date in most cases. Thus, for instance, in the United Kingdom a sister committee has been set up within the Bank of England and alongside the Monetary Policy Committee, namely the Financial Policy Committee. Italy, Belgium and Ireland have followed similar arrangements. In other countries such as France and Germany, committees have been set up with the participation of other economic authorities, but the central bank plays a very important role in them, and actually wields veto powers over the decisions of the macroprudential body relating to or affecting the field of competence of the national central bank or of the Eurosystem. Nonetheless, concentrating different and occasionally conflicting economic policy objectives within a single institution no doubt makes accountability more complicated and may make the institution’s mandate more ambiguous. This is indeed one of the reasons why in other instances, such as the United States, the option chosen was to create institutions in which  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  responsibilities are distributed more symmetrically between the central bank and the other economic authorities. This is no doubt a complex debate with unquestionable political connotations.

As you know, a broad raft of measures was agreed last Thursday covering the three main spheres of action of the ECB throughout this crisis. The conventional monetary policy stance was additionally eased with a further cut in official rates which, for practical purposes, have now reached their lower bound. The horizon for the policy of generous liquidity provision was extended once more to 2016. And, lastly, a further step was taken in respect of unconventional measures with the launch of a new, four-year, long-term refinancing operation aimed and designed at promoting greater credit flow. As we know, neither the ECB nor monetary policy alone can resolve the problems at the root of the crisis still besetting the euro area. But decisions such as those last Thursday no doubt contribute to facilitating the action of other economic policy tools which, by their nature, may have a more powerful and lasting effect on growth and employment. Thank you. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches