samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Interest rates have been on the increase recently in most parts of the world and capital is not as cheap as before, although it can still be procured at very low rates. Conditions in capital markets in general are therefore more likely to tighten in the coming years. Influential as economic developments on both sides of the Atlantic may be for the Icelandic economy, the way we handle our own affairs is still important. The crucial consideration is to achieve a rapid reduction in macroeconomic imbalances and restore stability. To do so, domestic demand must be reduced. Part of this process will occur automatically with the completion of ongoing investments in the aluminium and power sectors. Much has changed since the meeting a year ago, some things for the better, and others not. The current account deficit run up last year will not be forgotten for a long time – it even managed to trump the most pessimistic forecasts. Fortunately, clear signs of a gradual contraction are now visible, but this improvement is likely to be slower than we had previously expected, especially on account of foreign debt service. The Board of Governors of the Central Bank decided yesterday to leave the Bank’s policy rate unchanged at 14.25%, at the level where it has been since December. By contrast, the day before last year’s annual meeting, the Board of Governors raised the policy rate by 0.75 percentage points.

Its strong fiscal position is exemplary, and the population is relatively young, well educated and quick to adapt to technological and scientific innovations of all kinds. A strong pension system has been built up and – unlike other countries that have great fears about the future of their pension systems and their sustainability – it is clear that Iceland’s pension system is becoming increasingly stronger. Admittedly it is still not mature enough to have begun to pay out a representative proportion of its owners’ lifetime earnings, but this proportion is growing every year and all the pointers indicate that, for the foreseeable future, it will be highly sustainable. Thus the pension system is going from strength to strength in Iceland, at the same time as significant weaknesses are coming to the fore in many comparable economies. Real incomes in Iceland rank with the highest in the world, and unemployment with the lowest. Large-scale investments have recently been made which will generate  BIS Review 42/2007  3  handsome export revenues. Traditional sectors currently enjoy secure markets and high product prices. Undeniably this picture looks very bright and many more positive signs could be cited. But this does not alter the fact that, as I said earlier, the foundation has been precarious in many areas and the medium term will have a decisive significance for the outcome. Uncertainties abound and many households in Iceland thread a narrow path of debt and wages, where if they lose their footing, the fall could be heavy.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Progress and advancement of Islamic finance Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Islamic Economy Award 2014, Dubai, 14 January 2015. *  *  *  It is my very great honour to receive the Lifetime Achievement Award for the global development of Islamic finance conferred under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. I am most humbled to receive this award. It has been my privilege to contribute to the international efforts to create the foundations for a sustainable and resilient Islamic financial system in the global financial system. This recent decade has been highly challenging for the world of finance, yet the experience of confronting the challenges has been tremendously fulfilling. The overall progress and advancement of Islamic finance has continued to be accompanied by growth, dynamism and stability. Islamic finance brings immense benefits to the overall economy. It is a form of financial intermediation that is well anchored to the real economy. With its internationalisation, that began at the turn of the millennium, it now serves to enhance and strengthen the interlinkages between economies, facilitating international trade and cross border investment activities. This trend has marked the beginning of intensified collective efforts to enhance the Islamic financial infrastructure to create a robust and resilient global Islamic financial system.

In order to address this situation, one of the objectives in the Sixth  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  National Development Plan is to enhance the capacity of women to participate in national development”. 1 The Report further states that “due to weak economic position such as lack of collateral required by most financial institutions, most women, especially the rural women, are unable to access investment capital to engage in business and other economic activities as individuals”. Access to affordable financial services – especially credit and insurance – enhances livelihood opportunities and empowers women and other marginalized groups to take charge of their lives as well as improve their social and economic equity. This is why financial inclusion is considered to be critical for achieving inclusive growth and poverty reduction. What do we mean by financial inclusion Women’s financial inclusion has been described as “a state in which women as individual, members of households and entrepreneurs, have access to the full range of financial products and services from convenient responsible formal service providers, offered effectively, responsibly and sustainably and at a reasonable cost to clients” These products include payments, savings, credit, insurance and pensions. The Finscope survey of 2005 and 2009 showed that access to financial services in Zambia has been low with results indicating only a marginal increase from 33.7% in 2005 to 37.3% in 2009. This signifies that further efforts are required.
Central banks that also supervise core financial institutions would have the clear benefits of immediate access to vital information and expert assessment from supervisory staff about the health of individual institutions and their systemic implications. This could greatly help reduce the likelihood of any unnecessary delay or even misinformed decision that might hamper efforts to stem a financial crisis. For emerging market economies, the case for central banks to supervise the core financial institutions may be even stronger. This is because, financial markets in these countries are typically not well developed enough to serve as an efficient channel for the transmission of monetary policy. Market interest rates and even commercial banks’ prime rates react only sluggishly to changes in central bank’s policy rate, and often with a long time lag. In these circumstances, the traditional tool of monetary policy alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain economic and financial stability. Since in most emerging market economies, commercial banks are by far the most dominant players in the financial system, central banks with supervisory responsibilities could and should make use of targeted prudential policy to tackle financial imbalances and excessive asset price movements, both of which lie at the heart of all financial crises. This was what we did in 2003 to successfully contain incipient speculative bubbles in the property sector by imposing a ceiling on banks’ loan-to-value ratio of high-end housing loans.

Tarisa Watanagase: Aspects of optimal supervisory arrangements Remarks by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the SEACEN Governors’ Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 6 February 2009. *  *  *  Bank Negara Malaysia’s background paper provides a good summary of issues related to the choice of optimal supervisory arrangements. It is generally accepted that integrated model of supervision may have inherent synergies, economy of scale and scope, very little or no regulatory arbitrage and the ability to identify problems sooner. However, its possible weaknesses are the blurring of focuses and a tendency to compromise multiple objectives. On the other hand, separate supervisors have been credited with being more focused on their mandates, but of course the biggest concern is about supervisory coordination, the lack of which can lead to regulatory arbitrage, making supervision ineffective. It is also generally accepted that no one model is better or more optimal than the other. It all depends on the context of each country, including its supervisory capacity and resources, and details in operational arrangements. Thailand can certainly agree to such a conclusion. In our case, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) supervises the banking sector, which is the core of the financial sector. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supervises market conduct, the Insurance Commission supervises the insurance companies. This model has worked well so far. By law, the BOT chairs the Financial Institutions Policy Committee, whose members include the Secretary General of the SEC and the Insurance Commissioner, that meets on a monthly basis.
Ravi Menon: Enabling FinTech for good Opening remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Leaders' Session at Inclusive FinTech Forum, Kigali, 21 June 2023. *** His Excellency Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda, His Excellency Hakainde Hichilema, President of the Republic of Zambia, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am delighted to be part of this remarkable session bringing Africa and Asia together on the theme of Enabling FinTech for Good. There is much we can do together, and Singapore is proud to be part of this effort. Since coming here a couple of days ago, my colleagues and I have been struck by the energy and vitality of this place. Technology is transforming the world of finance. FinTech presents both opportunity and risk. We want to harness these opportunities while managing the risks. In Singapore, when we began our FinTech journey 8 years ago, we set four guiding principles for the use of FinTech: to increase efficiency; to manage risks better; to create new opportunities; and most important to improve people's lives. Eight years later, these principles continue to guide us. As we walked our FinTech journey, we learnt along the way. Two critical enablers have proven decisive in getting us to where we are: first, building foundational digital infrastructure second, fostering connectivity and collaboration Let me say a few quick words about each of them.

First, foundational digital infrastructure – systems that allow different users, different solutions, and different devices to seamlessly interact with one another. Just as physical infrastructure like roads and railways helped to connect and advance the industrial economy, we need digital infrastructures to enable a vibrant digital economy. What are these digital infrastructures? One, a digital identity, so that we can interact with one another digitally, with trust and confidence, knowing who is on the other side of the transaction. In Singapore, we introduced Singpass as a digital identity to facilitate secure, consent-based verification for residents to digitally access more than 700 different government services. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Two, interoperable electronic payments. We need not only digital payment solutions but common payment rails or networks for these different payment solutions to be interoperable. In Singapore, we built PayNow, an instant payment service. Residents can move money to one another's bank account in real-time at zero cost, with just three clicks on their mobile phones, regardless of which bank app they use. Three, a trusted data exchange so that individuals and corporates can access all their relevant data in digital form for purposes of carrying out digital transactions. In Singapore, we established MyInfo, a platform which allows residents to access via their mobile devices more than 100 of their personal particulars and share them with third party service providers through open, secure APIs. Second critical enabler - connectivity and collaboration.
Per cent 25  25 Non-financial corporate sector  20  20  15  15 Households  10  10  5  5 House prices  0 1998  0 1999  2000  2001  2002  Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, EFF, FINN.no, ECON EF, ECON and Norges Bank SG Gausdal 31.01.03  The sharp rise in electricity prices may lead to lower growth in consumption this year. Higher electricity expenses reduce household purchasing power. Many enterprises will also be facing higher costs. On the other hand, high electricity prices generate revenues for central and local government. Electricity prices 1 January 1998 = 100 340  340  300  300 260 220  Spot prices incl. tax and grid rental  180  260 220  Electricity prices index in the CPI*  180 140  140  100  100 *Electricity (including grid rental) accounts for 3.3% of CPI  60 Jan 00  60 Jul 00  Jan 01  Jul 01  Jan 02  Jul 02  Jan 03  Sources: Statistics Norway, NordPool, Viken Energi and Norges Bank SG Gausdal 31.01.03  Higher electricity prices will result in a sharp increase in the consumer price index this winter. The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index may approach 4 per cent in January and February. Underlying inflation will also be affected. For example, this can be the result of higher rents and higher costs in some business sectors.

In Norges Bank’s assessment, the outlook for the internationally exposed sector is brighter today than a year ago because the rise in costs has slowed markedly. As mentioned earlier, the decrease in wage growth has been of great importance in enabling us to reduce the key rate towards an international level. We expect inflation to pick up in the first half of 2004. Output and employment will probably grow somewhat more than trend. Again, thank you for giving me the opportunity to deliver this statement. 6  BIS Review 53/2003
This means that monetary policy bears the primary responsibility for price stability, whereas fiscal policy is to a greater extent oriented towards long-term stability in government finances. In Norway, the Government Petroleum Fund acts as a buffer against fluctuations in petroleum revenues. This makes the Norwegian economy more robust and in the short term less dependent on oil, at least as long as the government budget is running a substantial surplus. The Government Petroleum Fund is Norway’s most important shock absorber against shifts in the terms of trade. This explains why we have had far greater exchange rate stability than New Zealand or Australia. For the past 15 years, cyclical trends in Norway have been desynchronised in relation to other European countries. Because of the stagnation in the 1990s, inflation has been particularly low in Europe in recent years. Norway, on the other hand, experienced a long period of economic expansion in the 1990s. Since 1997, price inflation in Norway has been higher than in the euro area countries. This is reflected in the higher level of interest rates in Norway compared with the euro area. Even if instruments are oriented with a view to stability in the krone exchange rate against the euro, cyclical differences will result in inflation differentials between Norway and euro area countries. This year we have seen a tendency for the krone exchange rate against the euro to be strong at times.

From that time, daily and monthly variations in the krone exchange rate show that the krone is floating. Our analyses suggest that oil price fluctuations are just one of several contributory factors behind the variation in the krone exchange rate in recent years.4 In the short term the krone exchange rate is also affected by uncertainty in the global economy and turbulence in international financial markets. The Exchange Rate Regulation - which is the mandate assigned to Norges Bank by the political authorities - states that monetary policy shall be aimed at maintaining a stable krone exchange rate  4  See Bernhardsen and Røisland (2000). 7  BIS Review 105/2000  against European currencies. Since 1 January 1999, Norges Bank has defined European currencies as the euro. The Exchange Rate Regulation takes into account that the krone exchange rate may remain outside its normal range. In the event of significant changes in the exchange rate, Norges Bank shall orient instruments with a view to returning the exchange rate over time to its initial range. The concept “significant changes” is not quantified. The term must be given an economic content. Norges Bank considers an exchange rate change to be significant if it influences expectations concerning price and cost inflation to the extent that the change in the exchange rate may become self-reinforcing.
Gent Sejko: Address on remittances of the Albania diaspora Welcome address by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the high-level meeting on the remittances of the Albanian diaspora, Tirana, 14 December 2018. * * * Your Excellency, Minister Majko, Dear guests and colleagues, It is a special pleasure to open today’s meeting, which takes place after a year of intensive coordinated effort between our institutions toward the achievement of common objectives in relation to remittances of the diaspora, and other important issues. Today, a year after the Memorandum of Understanding was signed, I have the pleasure of noting that the materialization of these efforts has been reflected in the undertaking of a number of commitments and projects in pursuit of the objectives set out below. The importance of remittances to the Albanian economy, to family welfare and to development in general is highlighted in many communications of the Bank of Albania. In this context, during 2018, the Bank of Albania engaged its resources in developments aimed at creating the necessary prerequisites for an efficient channelling of such incomes into the Albanian economy. International initiatives in the field of remittances underline the importance of reducing the costs and increasing the efficiency of remittance services, thus implying the need to intervene in the retail payment market, in both remittance-sending and remittance-receiving countries.

(2018), “How can euro area banks reach sustainable  profitability in the future?”, Special Feature, Financial Stability Review, ECB, November. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches
People appear consistently to discount too heavily future rewards, a property called hyperbolic discounting. 20 This can explain myopic saving behaviour by households and companies, when tomorrow’s consumption is brought forward to today. 21 And it can explain political business cycles, when tomorrow’s GDP is brought forward to today. 22 Myopic behaviour also appears rife in risk decisions. People appear to exhibit risk myopia, discounting risk events more heavily the longer the period that passes without that risk materialising. 23 This is the behaviour we see from car drivers whose speed gradually  13  Ross (1973). 14  Orlowski and Wateska (1992). 15  Mischel (2014). 16  As discussed in Urminsky and Zauberman (2014). 17  Wang et al (2011). 18  Thaler and Shefrin (1981). 19  McClure et al (2004), Figner et al (2010) and Lowenstein et al (2008)  20  Ainslie (1975). 21  Laibson (1997). 22  Nordhaus (1975). 23  Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Thaler, Kahneman, Tversky and Schwartz (1997). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  increases after witnessing an accident. It was also the behaviour we saw during the Great Moderation when financial markets suffered progressively greater risk myopia (Chart 1). Hubris biases In 1965, psychologist Stuart Oskamp performed a multiple choice test on a group of psychology students based on a case study. He also asked them to assign a confidence rating to their answer.

In the early days of the MPC, the Bank used experimental evidence to assess the impact of committee decisionmaking. It found they made for better decision than individuals, by eliminating the bad play of individuals but also by promoting learning among Committee members. 57 Subsequent evidence from real-world MPC decision-making has found the same. 58 For effective information aggregation, individual MPC members need to bring a diversity of views. While difficult to observe directly, voting patterns suggest a reasonable degree of such diversity. There has been at least one member dissent from an MPC decision at around half of all meetings (Chart 8). External MPC members have contributed importantly to this diversity. On average, they have been around twice as likely as internals to dissent from monetary policy decisions (Chart 9). And although less likely to be in a minority, the Governor of the day has been outvoted on nine occasions. 59 Voting diversity does not of course prevent collective over-optimism. That might arise, for example, if the MPC consistently over-estimated its ability to forecast the economy. Since 1996, the Bank has published forecast paths for inflation and output growth, together with its assessment of the uncertainty around these estimates – so-called “fan charts”. 60 Chart 10 shows the fan chart for inflation from the Bank’s most recent Inflation Report. These fan charts allow us to conduct a real-world version of Oskamp’s experiment. Chart 11 plots the standard deviation of the Bank’s fan charts for output and inflation over time.