samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
So there are sound economic arguments for an inflation target that is not lower than 2 per cent. To sum up, it is these considerations I have in my mind when I talk about the importance of keeping our eye on the ball. Basically, it is a question of constantly being very clear about the guiding role of the inflation target in the design of monetary policy. The lower bound of the repo rate is less than zero Regarding negative interest rates, I presented my own view on the matter in a speech around this time last year. 6 I think that the difficulties with negative rates are not so much a question of purely economic aspects, but rather of what is feasible according to social conventions and possible to create understanding for. For example, the biggest problem is probably not the one that is commonly highlighted, namely that the general public would choose to empty their bank accounts and only hold cash, as soon as the interest rate is negative. Holding savings in cash is, when it comes down to it, both troublesome and costly and given that most people in Sweden have started to abandon cash, it is not something that would seem particularly natural. The pain threshold here is probably relatively high, from a purely economic perspective.

Mr Yam comments on Hong Kong: from crisis to recovery  Speech by the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Mr Joseph Yam, at the HKMA Luncheon on the occasion of the opening of the HKMA Representative Office in London on 28 September 1999. * * * It is a great pleasure to be speaking here in London again, and to do so at this large and expert gathering. Some of you may have been present at my last speaking engagement here, in June last year at the 11th Dragon Boat Dinner, which now seems like a very, very long time ago. In that speech I described Hong Kong, against the background of the financial turmoil in Asia, variedly as a pillar of stability, the eye of the storm and the typhoon shelter of Asia. My message then was that Hong Kong, with prudent policies and robust financial structures, had been the last and the least to be affected by the storm. Since that time, as you all know well, the tail of the storm has swept through Hong Kong and it has not been so gentle after all. The painful downward adjustment in the internal cost/price structure under a fixed exchange rate system eventually and inevitably came. This was reflected in plummeting asset prices, declining GDP and rising unemployment. Although the fundamentals of the Hong Kong economy remained sound, these events provided an attractive environment for the launch of speculative attacks.
A number of you, including Ken Rogoff, have shown that downturns associated with banking crises tend to be the most severe, and that clawing back lost employment and output in the aftermath of a financial crisis is most vexing. My colleague Mark Wynne, who directs our Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, has written an excellent brief on this for our Economic Letter publication, which should be posted on our website today. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  This chart of output relative to precrisis trend summarizes Mark’s conclusion: Since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, “performance of real GDP in the U.S. is almost exactly in line with what we might have expected based on the average experience of other countries that have gone through banking crises.”1 This chart is most definitely not a pretty sight. Small wonder that American consumers – and the businesses that hire and serve them – remain in a defensive crouch. The question is: How do we change the picture? How do we get the pistons of job creation, income growth and wealth restoration pumping again? This is the gist of the discussion at the FOMC table. The press and others delineate the viewpoints around the table on an ornithological scale, dividing us up into doves and hawks. I am classified according to that delineation as a hawk. I am not offended by this, but, not unlike the stereotyping of Texas, I consider it simplistic.

Second, I’m guessing you are looking for some insight into what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to do next, insight Chairman Bernanke, as leader of our pack, wisely avoided imparting in his recent comments. The Texas economy On the Texas front, my colleagues and I at the Dallas Fed have lately been deluged with requests for data on all aspects of the Texas economy – which accounts for 95 percent of the Eleventh District’s output and the economic activity of some 25 million of the 27 million people living in our district. If you are interested, you can go to our website (www.dallasfed.org) to receive a factual, nonpoliticized brief on the Texas economy, including the job creation figures that get bandied about in debates among presidential  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  aspirants. We update these numbers monthly – the data for the August employment figures will be tabulated on our website on Sept. 19 – and we will keep updating them so that analysts can parse the data. At a minimum, I am hopeful our web postings will help you separate spin from reality and fact from fiction, as well as dispel some of the stereotypes of Texas. For example, we are blessed with abundant natural resources here, and we most definitely do benefit on net from high commodity prices; oil and gas extraction contributes about 9.5 percent to state output.
In this context, the Board of the CBC has kept the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) at 2.5% and in the baseline scenario it expects to maintain a significant monetary impulse throughout the next two years, with an MPR that, in baseline scenario conditions, should 1  remain around its current levels and start approaching neutrality only when the economy begins to close the activity gap. Now, let me describe in further detail what we estimate to be the most likely macroeconomic scenario for the coming quarters and its related risks. At July, annual CPI inflation descended to 1.7%, thus accumulating a sharper fall than was foreseen in June. Its core component has evolved in line with forecasts, to near 2% annually, and continues to reflect slightly negative annual variation rates for goods inflation, and above 3% for services (figure 1). The evolution of the more volatile prices, particularly of fresh fruits and vegetables, has been a major factor in inflation falling below expectations. This is mainly associated with the unusual seasonal behavior that some products exhibited this year. Going forward, these prices are expected to be in line with historic patterns and help bring inflation to the target. Still, by their nature, these products can always be a source of inflationary surprises. In the second quarter, GDP rose 0.9% annually, with other sectors growing 1.1%, less than expected in June. The economy was affected by significant differences in the number of days worked, including an irrevocable holiday in April, whose impact was higher than estimated.

Indeed, the data show that, beyond the difficulty of calculating productivity by sector, the negative effect of the decline of mining ore has taking its toll on this industry (figure 12). The evidence from Chile suggests that there are important inefficiencies in resource allocation across firms and that there would be first order gains from measures aimed at improving them, which, unlike the case of human capital, could generate gains sooner. To back this last analysis, the document provides some international comparisons on productivity, microeconomic evidence on how the productivity of firms evolves, and its degree of dispersion. In particular, from a comparative perspective, although Chile's productivity appears to be aligned with its GDP per capita, it is about 60% that of the United States and less than that of the richer OECD countries, which implies that there is great room for improvement (figure 13). In Chile, as in many other economies, there appear to be significant gains from fostering a better allocation of productive resources, helping the more efficient firms to grow and the less efficient to shrink and eventually exit the market. As can be seen in table 3, 9  resource reallocation is an important source of TFP growth. For this, it is essential to have flexible labor markets that allow adjusting the endowment of companies when necessary, developing the financial system to direct resources to where the good ideas are and implement rules that facilitate the creation and dissolution of companies.
It continues to realise its purposes, as it stands tall against other types of currency. Over the years, in accordance with international standards, taking into account average income levels in Albania, new denominations have been added. The series of denominations allows for an adequate banknote structure for the public and fends off its illicit use. Recently, a new banknote has been added – 10 000 lekë, which is in the production process and is expected to be put in circulation in 2020. The current series dates back to 1996 and its theme evokes the history of our nation, through the representation of prominent personalities who have left a legacy in our national memory. The Bank of Albania decided to retain this theme in the new series, which is practically an evolution and upgrade of the existing series. This option was preferred over a new theme not only because familiarity with the existing theme is considered as important for public trust, but also because it preserves an emotional bond with the content of the images. That is why in the new series we still see the engraved portraits of Naim Frashëri, Ismail Qemali, Pjetër Bogdani, King Gent, and Scanderbeg, concluding with Asdreni, the author of our National Anthem, on the 10 000 Lekë banknote. On each denomination, the portrait on the obverse blends harmoniously into the design on the reverse. The portraits account for most of the banknote design area and are engraved in raised print.

First, following the sharp decline of hydrocarbon prices in 2014, the large contraction of hydrocarbon exports in 2015, in a context of still high imports after the significant increase of imports of goods over the period 2007-2014, resulted in a high external current account deficit (-16.4 percent of GDP). With hydrocarbons remaining Algeria’s main export, the external shock resulted in a significant contraction in international reserves, from $ billion 179 in 2014 to $ billion 144 in 2015. Nonetheless, this level remains comfortable, representing 27 months of imports of goods and services, in a situation of historically low medium and long term external debt (1.8 percent of GDP) and the absence of any external indebtedness of the hydrocarbon sector for more than a decade. Second, the exchange rate of the dinar vis-à-vis the US dollar depreciated by 20 percent in 2015, while it depreciated by only 3.8 percent vis-à-vis the euro. In view of the large depreciation of Algeria’s main partners’ currencies, the real effective exchange rate of the dinar remains close to its equilibrium level. Therefore, the exchange rate played, to a large extent, its role as an external shock absorber, reflecting its flexibility, supported by the Bank of Algeria’s interventions in the interbank exchange market. Third, as a result of the sharp contraction in fiscal oil revenue and the expansion of public spending, the fiscal deficit rose to 16 percent of GDP in 2015 from 7.3 percent in 2014. However, public debt has remained historically low, representing 13.6 percent of GDP at end 2015.
In order to generate innovation, innovative people have to be raised in Estonia, brought to Estonia - and kept in Estonia, hence the aim should be to create more high-productivity jobs. •  I maintain that being a part of Europe, we should become quality leaders since we have already lost the price leader position to Asia. This is undoubtedly easier to say than to do. Here we face the threat of outpacing the so-called natural development, which calls for step-by-step industrial development towards manufacturing products with increased added value - such a development is in fact currently under way in Estonia. On the other hand, the payback period of such investments is very long and the experience of several countries (including Finland and Ireland) has shown that success often arrives only decades later. Consequently - if it is our goal to become a quality leader, development activities in this direction should be launched as soon as possible. •  Here we come to the question, WHERE to start? The answer requires a good prediction or even a vision: which areas have enough potential in Estonia that are worth to be given systematic development priority. It is possible that due to its small size Estonia lacks any potential for developing high-technology industry since this would require the emergence of clusters. Even if we manage to develop our own high-technology industry, sufficiently high-level know-how will most likely emerge only in few fields. However, this does not mean that we should develop just a few areas.

The bottom line is that the long-term sustainability of public debt should be ensured by credible but flexible fiscal rules. In parallel, we could maintain the possibility of responding to large shocks through a permanent common fiscal capacity; in this respect, the Next Generation EU package is a positive breakthrough, and could be made permanent, although with more limited amounts. A few days ago, Mario Draghi, speaking at the Italian Senate in his current capacity as Prime minister, rightly backed “an increasingly integrated European Union that will arrive at a common public budget capable of supporting countries in times of recession.” In addition, a fully-fledged capital markets union is more necessary than ever, in order to supplement public risk sharing with private risk sharing across the euro area. In conclusion, let me say a few words on chamber music. Many of you have already heard the famous Piano Trio Number 2 by Franz Schubert. The harmony of the three instruments has charmed generations of music lovers, including Stanley Kubrick in “Barry Lindon”. In this piece, none of the instruments should be the only game in its own town. And none of them should be dominated by any of the other two, otherwise the harmony is broken. Quite the contrary, we can hear each instrument and the beauty of the piece comes from the response of each instrument to the others. The same applies to the three macroeconomic policies: monetary, macroprudential and fiscal.
3/11  Some of these new macroprudential tools, in particular those based on the borrowers’ ability to pay, have already been introduced into the national legislation of other EU Member States to prevent excessive easing of credit underwriting standards by banks and to contribute to the sustainability of household and corporate debt. These new instruments complement those already available to the Banco de España included in the European legislation: the countercyclical capital buffer, the systemic risk buffer and the buffer for systemic banks, among others. All in all, this new institutional setting is a significant step forward in reinforcing financial stability in Spain. The importance of a macroprudential policy framework In my view, the introduction of macroprudential policy instruments to complement monetary and fiscal policy is probably one of the most significant policy developments following the global financial crisis. For countries in a monetary union, like Spain, the introduction of these tools is particularly important. Indeed, it is one of the few domestically managed levers available to guarantee the stability of the domestic financial system. However, the design of macroprudential policy poses significant challenges. This is mainly because there is little experience in the use of these tools and scant empirical evidence on their effectiveness, at least when compared with fiscal and monetary policy tools.

I recommend giving it a read: the report itself is a treasure trove of data, and the results do you credit. The average solvency capital requirement (SCR) coverage ratio on the French market climbed from 222% in 2016 to 238% in 2017. What’s more, in the first quarter of 2018, the French insurance market overtook Germany and the United Kingdom to become Europe’s number-one market, with over EUR 35 billion in direct premiums written in non-life insurance and over EUR 2.100 trillion in technical provisions. It also leads in investment capacity: commanding total assets of EUR 2.7 trillion in September 2018, France’s insurance sector is far and away the largest institutional investor in Europe, accounting for over one-third of the total assets of euro area insurers. In comparison, France makes up 21% of euro area GDP. Insurers, then, are a crucial asset for France, and their critical role in financing the economy can and indeed must grow further. Corporate equity is vital to innovation and hence to a vibrant economy, but in mid-2018 equity was equivalent to just 77% of GDP in the euro area and 76% in France, compared with 124% in the United States. II. Tapping into regulatory opportunities. I would like to start this section off by noting that France’s introduction of a flat tax on capital income on 1 January has not had the slightest detrimental effect on life insurance, despite fears on this score within your industry.
Even if in the very near-term the energy crisis may cause an increase in non-gas fossil fuel being used, the likelihood of a timely and orderly transition towards a low-carbon economy consistent with the EU's commitment to the Paris Agreement has increased. That being said, another record-breaking summer has confirmed that physical risks of climate change and environmental degradation are materialising ever more frequently, which will add to the risk of increased macroeconomic volatility until the transition has been completed. When the boat we all share is rocked to such an extent by external forces, we need to be able to count on internal anchors of stability. The ECB provides one of those crucial internal anchors by pursuing its mandate of maintaining price stability in the euro area as laid down in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. In line with that mandate, our primary concern is, as always, our primary objective: price stability. Inflation is currently far too high. The shocks that are hitting the euro area economy have not only led to a turning point in the outlook for economic activity but are also contributing to further upward price pressures that are much stronger and more persistent than we previously anticipated. This implies that inflation is likely to stay above our 2% target for an extended period. As a result, we accelerated the pace of monetary policy normalisation over the summer to ensure that monetary policy is consistent with inflation returning to our target in the medium term.

Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank's monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances Keynote speech by Mr Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament conference on "Greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation", Brussels, 28 September 2022. *** Many thanks for giving me the opportunity to deliver the introductory remarks at this conference on greening monetary policy at a time when inflation is far too high. Although I am delivering these remarks remotely, it is always a privilege to speak directly to you, the elected representatives of Europe's citizens, the very same citizens – served by EU institutions, including the European Central Bank – who are united in their commitment to foster peace and stability in their part of the world, even when that very world is subject to significant transformation and upheaval. The pandemic and the war have shaken the environment in which the EU must address the vital challenges that it faces, including the ongoing climate and environmental crises. Since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the global economic outlook has become much less favourable. Having said that, the invasion has not shaken the EU's resolve to address the challenges faced. In actual fact, the war and the ensuing energy crisis have only served to increase EU authorities' determination to reduce the bloc's dependence on fossil energy sources.
Banks are now able to reach out and deliver more financial services with good user experience to a wider spectrum of customers via mobile phones and other online channels. 5.Secondly, if we take a closer look at the tech community’s involvement, it is not difficult to see that many of the initiatives I just mentioned are the result of collaboration between the banking industry and the tech community. Since the upgrade of our Supervisory Sandbox last November, 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  tech firms have directly accessed the Sandbox’s Chatroom in more than 110 cases to seek the HKMA’s early regulatory feedback on their projects and ideas. This means they are better prepared to collaborate with banks to launch fintech products and services. These uses of the Chatroom are on top of around 50 cases used by banks. The rollout of the Open API Framework, and the phase one implementation roadmaps submitted by banks to the HKMA, show there will be an even higher level of integration and collaboration between the banking industry and the tech community. 6.Thirdly, more than 70 firms, including local and overseas technology and financial firms, have expressed interest in establishing virtual banks in Hong Kong. As of 31 August, we have received about 30 applications to operate a virtual bank. Some of those applications are already “substantially complete”, so we would include them in the first batch of applications for processing.

At the same time, we will also explore data analytics tools for processing the data collected in order to generate useful analyses for furthering our capability to understand and assess the ML/TF risks at the sectoral level, as well as to provide feedback to individual regulatees where appropriate. These will hopefully lead to an evolution and re-shaping of regulatory interface between the HKMA and market practitioners to enhance AML/CFT surveillance capability of all. Regtech for prudential risk management and compliance 23.Another area of focus is on Regtech for prudential risk management and compliance. The often-analytical nature of prudential risk management has created room for technology to im  4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches