samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But a strong independence and plenty of room for manoeuvre entails freedom with responsibility – we have an important analytical and educational task to explain what we do and how this helps us attain our objectives. I want to start by going back in time around 350 years. The motive for our independence – creating long-term stability Every central bank reflects its time and its country, but some tasks are common to all of them through history, for instance, issuing means of payment in the domestic currency, and ensuring the means of payment can be used and retain its value. And this also applies to the world’s oldest central bank – the Riksbank. Monetary policy has always focused on maintaining the value of money. Historically, the Riksbank has tried to do so by having a nominal anchor. 2 The establishment of the Riksbank can be dated back to Stockholm banco, Sweden's first bank. This also became Europe’s first banknote-issuing bank. The value of the banknotes was based on it being possible to exchange them for coins. But when an abundance of banknotes were issued, the general public began to question their value and demanded to redeem them. The nominal anchor gave way. And a bank crash was unavoidable. Riksens ständers bank emerged from the ashes of this in 1668, becoming what we know now as the Riksbank, as an authority under the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament.

Delaying the end of reinvestment puts the emphasis where it needs to be – getting off the zero lower bound for interest rates. In my opinion, this is far more important than the consequences of the balance sheet being a little larger for a little longer. With respect to the issue of how the FOMC will control money market rates with an enlarged balance sheet, the Federal Reserve already has the necessary tool – the ability to pay interest on excess reserves. However, the degree of control could be further buttressed. Enhancing confidence in the Fed’s ability to control money market rates, and hence, inflation, might also help keep inflation expectations well anchored. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  One method the Fed has been testing is an overnight, fixed rate, reverse repo (RRP) facility. The Federal Reserve posts a fixed interest rate and accepts cash from counterparties, which include some banks, dealers, money market funds, and government sponsored enterprises, on an overnight basis in return for a security. The repo facility is “reverse” because the direction in which the funds and securities move – participants are lending funds to the Fed rather than vice versa. Users of the facility are making the economic equivalent of an overnight collateralized loan of cash to the Federal Reserve. If implemented, the facility could be set up as “full allotment,” which means that there is no cap on the amount of funds accepted from any of its counterparties at the posted overnight interest rate.
4  BIS Review 67/2009  Figure 6: Domestic Sales of Automobiles (Seasonally Adjusted, Quantity) 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000  0309  0109  1108  0908  0708  0508  0308  0108  1107  0907  0707  0507  0307  15000  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. Core inflation indicators displayed a continual and accelerating downward trend in the first quarter of 2009. The CPI index excluding energy, unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold fell by 2.66 percentage points year-on-year, while, with a further exclusion of processed food, the index dropped by 1.41 percentage points year-on-year. Even though the SCT cut in the second half of March was also influential in this development, the ongoing decline in the seasonally adjusted rates of change in both indices points to a continuing downward trend in inflation (Figure 7). Figure 7: Special CPI Aggregates H* and I* (Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Increases, 2-Month Average) 1.4 H*  1.2  I*  1.0 0.8 0.6 0.32  0.4 0.2  0.21 0309  1208  0908  0608  0308  1207  0907  0607  0307  1206  0906  0606  0306  1205  0905  0605  0305  0.0  * SCT adjusted H and I series Source: TURKSTAT, CBT.

This indicates that traditional criteria used in determining credit rating and credit risk level may remain inadequate for accurately reflecting actual credit risk levels of countries at the times during which country specific characteristics come to the forefront. Figure 13: Relation Between CDS Rates and Credit Ratings  270  Hungary Indonesia Russia  Change in CDS (12 Sep 08 - 13 Apr 09)  220  170  S. Korea  Mexico Poland  120 Chile Czech Rep.  S. Africa  Colombia Brazil  70 Turkey 20 0  2  4 6 S&P Credit Ratings (1=A+, 9=BB-)  8  10  Source: Bloomberg, CBT. 8  BIS Review 67/2009  Countries that experienced a decline in their risk premia enjoyed room for policy rate cuts in the period of deepening financial crisis (Figure 14). In this period, contrary to many developing countries, the foreign exchange indebtedness of households in Turkey remained at low levels. This factor, accompanied by the resilience of the financial system and the restricted deterioration in risk premia during the global financial crisis, allowed the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to opt for policy rate cuts of large amounts.
A central element of the new Social Contract for banking is that firms must be fit to fail in an orderly way. Working backwards from that ultimate objective will necessarily change the dialogue between banks and their supervisors. Microprudential and macroprudential This is consistent with the government’s plan that the statutory objective of banking supervision should be recast in terms of firms being sufficiently safe and sound to ensure the stability of the system. That is a profound change. Supervisors will need to focus on the big issues. Analysing bank balance sheets and businesses. Applying judgment. To my mind a great bank supervisor is forensic; is capable of substituting their judgment for those of management; but is wise enough to do so only where necessary; and has the personality to conduct the regulatory relationship without unnecessary conflict. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  In another return to the distant past, the supervisor cannot treat firms as islands. They are part of a system. So, at the very least, supervisors will need to look laterally across peer groups of firms for oddities, and stress test firms’ resilience against short-term and longer-fuse threats from the environment. They will, therefore, need to draw on market intelligence on industry trends from the Bank’s Markets area; insights from the operators and overseers of the clearing, settlement and payment systems; and analysis from the finance and monetary researchers in the Bank.

Conversely, the Financial Policy Committee will – and already has – drawn on briefings from the supervisors as well as the Bank’s existing staff. In other words, this is going to be about making connections, pulling together a varied range of inputs. A measure of the Bank’s success when prudential supervision transfers will be how well we knit them together. The Court of the Bank will play an important role in ensuring that the executive of the Bank delivers on this. What all this amounts to is framing microprudential regulation and supervision to deliver macroprudential objectives. Experience around the world demonstrates that it is hard to keep supervisors focused on the stability of the system as a whole. The UK’s Financial Policy Committee is designed to achieve that. By creating a new institution within the Bank of England, the government is ensuring that stability does not fall by the wayside, into the gap between monetary policy at one end of the spectrum and the regulation of firms at the other. As the Governor of the Bank said recently at the Mansion House, an important part of the FPC’s role will be to steer, to orient the work of the microsupervisors in the light of the assessment of short-term and longer-term risks to stability. That was in evidence at the FPC’s very first meeting, a fortnight ago. The Financial Policy Committee’s first decisions The decision and Record of that meeting were published last week.
Given the novel nature of the instrument, its amount and the difficulties in reaching agreements in the EU on such multi-faceted matters, I must say that the outcome is very satisfactory in terms of underscoring the shared will to move the European project forward. The challenge now is to convert these funds that will be made available to countries into a fiscal impulse that accompanies and steers the recovery effort needed in our productive system. In this connection it would be advisable to prioritise, in the short term, public investment projects in innovation, technological capital, education and lifelong learning, and projects that contribute to the transition to a more sustainable economy, in line with the strategic guidelines recently laid down by the European authorities. The fact that the recovery fund agreed by the Council focuses on medium and long-term objectives means there is still a significant need in the short term to fund the Member States’ budgetary effort in combating the effects of the pandemic. Also, in the medium term it remains necessary to equip the EU with an appropriate institutional framework to address the asymmetrical effect of economic shocks, e.g. through the launch of a common budgetary macroeconomic stabilisation capacity, a cyclical stabilisation function or a pan-European unemployment insurance scheme. That would influence greater pooling of resources and risks in the budgetary arena and would enhance the resilience of the Union as a whole to negative shocks.

Otherwise, persistently high public debt/GDP ratios will leave us chronically vulnerable to the possibility of adverse macrofinancial shocks arising in the future. This programme should include a clear definition of the budgetary objectives and their timeframe, along with details of the measures needed to attain them. It should also be based on a prudent forecast of macroeconomic developments. Further, it should include an appropriate response to possible slippage, and be compatible with an improvement in the quality of public finances. In this respect, it will be a priority on the expenditure side to subject the various items to exhaustive review, with the aim of identifying the areas in which there is room to improve efficiency. It is important that the recommendations further to AIReF’s assessments be taken into account as soon as possible. We also need a comprehensive review of the tax system, in order to improve its revenueraising capacity and its efficiency. Comparison with the other European countries can guide us here. And, once again, the results of AIReF’s recently published review of tax benefits are a significant contribution in this connection. 11  Conclusions In sum, following an unprecedented recession, we face a gradual recovery in the economy, which is still incomplete and uneven, and subject to high uncertainty. Against this background, the ECB’s actions since the onset of this crisis and the recent approval of the European recovery plan are also an unprecedented common European response.
31  16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  16  But real returns on the Navy Fives and similar fixed rate securities continued to be highly volatile reflecting the very large swings in inflation for much of period – a period that was punctuated by frequent financial crises. That perhaps illustrates that there is a great deal more to stability - both financial and monetary - than nominal interest rates. 17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  17  References Anadu, K., M. Kruttli, P. McCabe, E. Osambela and C.H. Shin (2018), The shift from active to passive investing: Potential risks to financial stability?, Working Paper PRA 18-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Andersen, A., C. Duus, and T. Jensen (2016), Household debt and spending during the financial crisis: Evidence from Danish micro data, European Economic Review, 89, pp. 96-115. Avery Jones, J. (2019), Jane Austen’s income: insights from the Bank of England archives, Bank Underground Blog, 2 August 2019 Bank of England (2019), Financial Stability Report, Issue No. 45, July 2019.Bank of England (2018), Inflation Report, August 2018. Bank of England (2017a), Stress testing the UK banking system: key elements of the 2017 stress test, March 2017. Bank of England (2017b), Financial Stability Report, Issue No 42, November 2017. Borio, C. (2017), Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?, Keynote speech, National Association for Business Economics, 33rd Economic Policy Conference.

In the US, EA and UK house prices have broadly grown at or below the growth rate of the economy, and real house prices have actually fallen relative to their pre- global financial crisis levels. Since the crisis, there has also been a marked reduction in financial sector debt as a share of GDP, which suggests that reforms have reduced leverage and risk markedly within the financial sector (Chart 3). This is not to be complacent. 25 The magnitude of interest rate cycles across the UK, US and EA have varied. Over both loosening and tightening  cycles between 1994 and 2007, the average cumulative change in interest rates in the UK has been around 150bps in the UK, compared to around 250bps in the EA and around 275bps in the US. 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  12  Aggregates can hide significant problems. In some advanced economies, particularly the US, corporate debt has, as I have noted, been growing at a very fast rate accompanied by a loosening of underwriting standards. And to the extent that financial asset prices are being driven either by unrealistic expectations either of interest rates or of economic growth, there could be a sharp correction. Chart 2. Total debt stock in  Chart 3.
Marzunisham Omar: Waqf – an economic perspective Speech by Mr Marzunisham Omar, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Forum on "Waqf: An Economic Perspective", Kuala Lumpur, 9 April 2018. * * * It is an honour to speak on waqf from an economic viewpoint. Waqf, or Islamic endowment, is a virtuous act which not only serves as a philanthropic tool but holds great potential for economic development. Allow me to share some thoughts on the relevance of waqf and three strategies to unlock its full potential to benefit our country. Revival of waqf is timely to unlock its full potential Waqf is part of Islam’s great and long history. It is a well-established concept, conceived during the time of the Prophet, peace be upon him. When Umar ibn al-Khattab acquired a piece of land, he asked the Prophet how best to use it. The Prophet advised him to make the land inalienable and to use it for the benefit of the unprivileged – the poor and those in need. With that, the land was established as waqf. Over the centuries, this tradition continued and waqf has made vast contributions to the development of Islamic civilisation. Notable examples include the waqf of Süleymaniye in Istanbul, which provided for the construction of schools and universities, and the waqfs of Murad II and of Bayezid II in Edirne that built and operated hospitals that provided free treatment.

While these are inspiring examples from the past, it is no question that waqf remains relevant today. It can play an important part in our quest to develop a more dynamic, progressive and inclusive economy. It can do so by tackling some of the major challenges facing society, such as inequality and improving access to quality education and health. We must not allow intergenerational inequity to widen and magnify. And waqf, as a vehicle for those in a more privileged position to voluntarily give back and reinvest in the society, can help promote social mobility and stem this vicious cycle of inequity. As a sustainable, intergenerational mechanism for social investments, waqf could effectively contribute towards a more equitable society. As stated in the Quran, wealth that has been bestowed by Allah should not merely circulate among the rich. The Prophet said: “Blessed is the wealth of a Muslim from which he gives to the poor, the orphans and the needy travellers.” In Islam, wealth is regarded as a means and not an end, and Islamic wealth management acknowledges responsibility towards the community and benefitting those in need. Strategies to strengthen the effectiveness of waqf It is, therefore, timely to revive waqf and to bring back its glory days. Let me put forward three strategies that we can explore to unlock waqf’s full potential as a platform for Islamic social finance. First, is to broaden waqf assets and their applications. Fundamental to this is the need to correct the perception of waqf.
Not all of them disappeared though, for example, Charlemagne capital bought four regional banks and consolidated them into a single bank. Cleaning up the market, by removing inefficient banks, laid foundations for a healthier banking system, resistant to macroeconomic disturbances and improved risk management. Moreover, these two crises made us attentive to emerging risks, such as rapid credit growth or lax risk management practices and generated political support required to provide us with the toolkit needed to prevent future disruptions in the financial sector with large spillovers to the real economy and potentially huge costs to the budget. Since then, we continued cleaning up the system with no threat to either the financial stability or the budget. Navigating the Boom and the Bust The resumption of growth and resolution of weak banks eventually stabilized the banking system, setting the stage for the period of rapid international integration and financial deepening of the 2000's. After the first clean-up at the turn of the century, the number of banks has fallen to slightly above 40, and consolidated institutions started to compete strongly. In their pursuit of higher market shares, banks turned to foreign sources of financing, facilitated by extremely favourable financing conditions and high liquidity at the global level. At the surface, the financial sector supported the story of economic growth and convergence. However, experiences from the 1990s provided an optics needed to spot risks emerging underneath.

We need to try and think "out of the box" and seek new and creative solutions to old problems – fighting old battles might not bring victories. In order to move from the situation in which we say that many of these things are necessary, but unrealistic – we need political support. That is what we also learned from experience. And political support usually comes after a good crisis. With that happy note I would like to thank you for the attention, excuse myself if I was too long, and leave you to the rest of the dinner. References: Jankov, Lj. (2000), Banking Sector Problems: Causes, Solutions and Consequences, S – 1, Croatian National Bank, Zagreb. CNB (2008), Annual Report. CNB (2022), Financial Stability No. 23. Vedran Šošić, Maja Bukovšak, Lana Ivičić (2022), Prevencija sistemskih kriza i očuvanje financijske stabilnosti, u Stojanović A. (ur.) Suvremene financijske usluge: razvojni pravci i strateška pitanja, str. 500-574, Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb. Vujčić, B., Dumičić, M. (2016), Managing Systemic Risks in the Croatian Economy, BIS Paper No. 86l, September. © CROATIAN NATIONAL BANK
As for Hong Kong, our main task is to maintain the various monetary and financial laws that have been put in place before July 1997. Of course, we need to review and improve the legal framework in the light of the developments in the financial markets. The formulation and amendment of monetary laws are proposed by the executive body of the HKSAR and passed by the legislature. (B) Mainland authorities do not interfere in the monetary affairs of the HKSAR. The monetary authorities of the Mainland and the HKSAR are mutually independent and one is not subordinate to the other. The monetary authority in the Mainland does not set up any office in Hong Kong to exercise monetary management. 12. Under the Exchange Fund Ordinance, the Chief Executive of the HKMA, i.e. the Monetary Authority, is accountable to the Financial Secretary of the HKSAR government. According to the Law of the People’s Bank of China, the PBOC is accountable to the State Council and the branches of the PBOC are accountable to the headquarters. As mentioned earlier, although Hong Kong has been subject to a severe ordeal during the financial turmoil, the PBOC and other Mainland government departments have not interfered in Hong Kong’s monetary affairs. Furthermore, our autonomy in the management of Hong Kong’s foreign reserves is an important element in the mutual independence between the two monetary authorities. 13. While maintaining a mutually independent relationship, the two monetary authorities will continue to maintain and strengthen further the existing sound co-operation between the two places.

A copious amount is being harbored by nondepository financial institutions, and another $ trillion is sitting in the cash coffers of nonfinancial businesses. 1  Gasoline prices were not a major factor in January’s headline index, at least relative to the normally wild swings we see in the price of gasoline. On a seasonally adjusted basis, gasoline prices increased 0.9 percent in January (not annualized) and contributed roughly 0.3 annualized percentage points to the headline rate. Based on weekly data collected by the Department of Energy, the price of gasoline in February is on pace for an increase of 6.3 percent over January. Given that the typical seasonal pattern has gasoline’s price falling 1.1 percent in February, we should see a roughly 7.4 percent seasonally adjusted increase when personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for February come out at the end of March. Gasoline alone may end up contributing about 3 annualized percentage points to February’s headline PCE rate. A more thorough discussion can be found here: www.dallasfed.org/data/pce/2012/pce1201.cfm. 2  FOMC Greenbook forecast, December 1966. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Trillions of dollars are lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy. Yet financial market operators keep looking and hoping for more. Why? I think it may be because they have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided when we performed massive reconstructive surgery, rescuing the economy from the Financial Panic of 2008–09, and then kept the medication in the financial bloodstream to ensure recovery.