samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, there is a risk that rising or persistently high oil prices may gradually curb growth among important trading partners. In its June Inflation Report, Norges Bank assumed that money market rates among our trading partners would rise gradually over the next three years. The path for domestic and external interest rates does not imply considerable changes in the krone exchange rate. Given solid global growth, demand for goods and services from Norwegian export companies may remain at a high level. A growing number of export companies are facing capacity constraints, particularly in the production of metals and refined petroleum products. Export growth in the years ahead will probably occur in industries such as the engineering and shipbuilding industries. Production growth is now high in these industries and employment is rising after declining over several years. Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy is now higher than normal. Strong global growth is supporting both high demand and favourable prices for the Norwegian export sector. Although petroleum investment is likely to peak this year, prospects of persistently high oil prices will contribute to continued strong demand from the petroleum sector. High oil prices also generate substantial central government revenues and there are prospects of strong growth in the Government Pension Fund – Global in the next few years. This means that spending in line with the fiscal rule will lead to an increase in the structural, non-oil central government budget deficit.

I therefore do not intend to discuss this specific issue today, but refer to the comprehensive academic literature. 2 Many analysts would argue that both of these changes, at least partly, share a basis, namely higher global saving, which, in turn, is a result of the world having become richer. 3 But I would like to separate them, as the discussion has primarily come to focus on the lower level of interest rates. The fact that the financial sector has also changed in several respects is something that needs to be given more attention, considering that the conditions on the financial markets steer how monetary policy is designed and acts. Allow me, therefore, to make a brief digression on the subject. In the 1970s and 1980s, the world's capital markets were gradually deregulated. This, combined with good global growth, which is to say a richer world, and the development of information technology, led to strong development on the global financial markets in terms of outstanding volumes, turnover and new instruments. The development had major advantages. With less regulation, the financial sector’s basic functions – executing payments, allocating savings to investments and managing risk – could be better managed, at the same time as the strong growth on the financial markets contributed to the strong growth in the global economy. But a larger financial sector has also led to greater potential risks, as exemplified by the financial crisis twelve years ago.
2 All three of these reasons – evidence that U.S. monetary policy is currently only moderately accommodative, the fact that U.S. financial conditions have been influenced by economic and financial market developments abroad, and risk management considerations – argue, at the moment, for caution in raising U.S. short-term interest rates. So, directionally, the movement in investor expectations towards a flatter path for U.S. short-term interest rates seems broadly appropriate. That said, to my eye, market expectations derived from futures prices – which price in about one 25 basis point rate hike through the end of 2017 – appear to be too complacent. If the incoming information validates my view of the outlook, then I believe that U.S. monetary policy will likely need to move at a faster pace than implied by futures prices towards a more neutral posture as the labor market tightens further and U.S. inflation rises. Moreover, market expectations may be putting insufficient weight on the possibility that the economy could outperform our expectations, that financial conditions could ease, or that the risks to growth from Brexit and other international developments could fade away. If such events were to occur, this might necessitate a faster pace of adjustment. For these reasons, I think it is premature to rule out further monetary policy tightening this year. As I said before, it depends on the data, broadly defined, and, as we all know, that is not something one can predict with any accuracy.

With respect to communication, in recent years the Federal Reserve has shifted towards much greater transparency. This includes quarterly press conferences by the Fed chair following FOMC meetings; publishing growth, inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts of FOMC participants on a quarterly basis; and a concerted effort to lay out the guideposts that the FOMC will look at in assessing progress towards our dual mandate objectives. On the communication front, although we have come a long way, I would admit that there is still room for further improvement. For example, the focus of the SEP on the each participant’s modal forecast does not convey how much uncertainty there is about the economic outlook. Similarly, language used in FOMC statements can become stale over time. We tend to make relatively few changes to the statement language each meeting because of the acute market sensitivity to such changes. One could argue that this might not be the best practice to follow, but we should recognize that there would also be significant transition costs if we were to make more extensive revisions to the statement at each meeting. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  For monetary policy to be effective, it is important to have clarity about what the FOMC can be clear and consistent about – its manner of responses to mitigate the potential harmful effects of disturbances and the goals of policy. In contrast, our monetary policy projections and the actions we take cannot be static.
It is important that banks adopt a consistent approach to dealing with restructuring requests across the organisation and provide ready access for customers in difficulties to approach the bank to discuss relief. Working together, banks and their customers can help one another to deal with the effects of  BIS Review 21/2003  3  SARs and position themselves for recovery. I am confident that the banks have been taking the right action, and will continue to do so. 4  BIS Review 21/2003

18.05.2022  Welcoming remarks Pathways to Gender Equality in Central Banks Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Dear ladies and gentlemen, I feel very honored to participate in the opening of this conference co-organized with the International Economic Association, Banco de la República and Banco de España. The development of initiatives, such as this one that gives visibility to issues related to gender diversity, are key to finding solutions to the waste of talent that involves not taking this diversity into account, consequently putting economic growth at risk and depriving economies of opportunities to develop. Ensuring diversity and, in particular, gender balance, must be a priority in our organizations and, with this commitment, we work at the Banco de España, where we have made significant progress in recent years. By the end of 2021, 51% of our total staff were females, and it is noteworthy that, in one decade (since 2012), that proportion has increased in nearly 10 percentage points. More than 4 years ago, in April 2018, Banco de España joined Bank Al Maghrib, the central bank of Morocco, to organize the first international meeting between international central banks with the aim of studying and fostering female leadership in central banks.
Hong Kong How does the present situation in Hong Kong match up against these various considerations? Hong Kong is in several respects exceptional, if not unique. It has no specific central bank law of the type common in other jurisdictions (although a number of laws, such as the Exchange Fund Ordinance and the Banking Ordinance, govern particular aspects of the Monetary Authority’s functions). It has no mainstream government debt. It operates a currency board rather than a discretionary monetary policy. And it has only quite recently become familiar with the idea of a budget deficit persisting for longer than an isolated year or two. Although the absence of a law to explicitly prohibit monetary financing of the budget deficit – of the sort which has been adopted in many economies, both new and old, in the course of the past couple  BIS Review 70/2002  3  of decades – may be thought a weakness, it need not be so in reality. Whether or not it has a formal legal basis, the proscription of monetary financing has nowadays become so firmly established as part of the policy landscape in the developed financial economies, that any of them which dared breach it would be immediately crucified by the markets, the world media, the IMF and so on. One could class this as a sort of de facto law of nature, which is likely to be at least as effective and durable as any law passed by a legislature, if not more so.

The biggest risks are a global economic downturn, a  Page 2/4  Zurich, 22 September 2022 Thomas Jordan  News conference  worsening of the gas shortage in Europe and a power shortage in Switzerland. Furthermore, a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic cannot be ruled out. Monetary policy tightening  Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy. I would like to explain today’s decision. Last quarter, our conditional inflation forecast indicated that, without a further tightening of monetary policy, inflation would be above the range consistent with price stability at the end of the forecast horizon. This meant that further interest rate increases might be needed to stabilise inflation in the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. This has turned out to be the case. While Switzerland’s inflation rate of 3.5% is low by international comparison, it is significantly above the 0% to 2% range we equate with price stability. There are also growing signs that higher prices are increasingly spreading to goods and services that are not directly affected by the war in Ukraine or the consequences of the pandemic. Information from our delegates for regional economic relations suggests that companies can more easily transfer higher costs to their sales prices. In addition, energy prices have continued to rise overall and are increasing inflationary pressure in many sectors. This heightens the risk of second-round effects. We have therefore concluded that a significant increase in the SNB policy rate is appropriate.
See also N. Sudo (2021), “Quantifying stock and flow effects o f QE”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 53(7), pp. 1719-1755. This study attributes ro ughly three-quarters o f the impact o f the PEPP programme in spring 2020 to the effect o f the anno uncement of the o verall purchase envelo pe, and just o ne-quarter o f its effects to the actual flo w o f purchases. 14  Fo r instance, acco rding to the SMA, the median respo ndent expects APP reinvestments to last until June 2023, with a steady reductio n in the APP po rtfo lio thereafter. 15  Under the TPI, the Euro system will be able to make seco ndary market purchases o f securities issued in jurisdictions experiencing a deterio ratio n in financing co nditions not warranted by co untry-specific fundamentals, subject to fulfilling established eligibility criteria. Fo r further details, see ECB press release, “The Transmissio n Protection Instrument”, 21 July 2022. 8  monetary policy is tightening while economies are facing an energy shock. In this context, fiscal policy should refrain from providing across -the-board fiscal support, as this would further raise inflation. 16 In turn, higher inflation would eventually force monetary policy to tighten further, with the resulting adverse implications for governments’ financing costs and for the economy more broadly. More generally, the optimal response, in my opinion, should be guided by four criteria. First, the aggregate euro area fiscal policy stance should also be normalised.

When the central bank has pushed interest rates do wn as far as it can, we say that the interest rate has reached its effective lo wer bo und (ELB). 3  by buying government bonds and other securities in the secondary market – an assetpurchasing policy often referred to as quantitative easing (QE) –, and through targeted longterm lending to commercial banks. Let me now recall briefly how each of these policy instruments works. I will start with asset purchases. The ECB launched its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) in September 2014. The purpose of asset purchases (i.e. buying bonds from euro area governments and other public sector entities and from the safest corporate issuers) is to decrease longer-term interest rates. Conventional interest rate policy moves the short-term rate on interbank markets, but medium and long-term rates also have a bearing on investment decisions, be they buying a house or purchasing new machinery. Long-term rates are the sum of three components: the expectation of future short-term rates, the term premium and the default premium. Asset purchases affect each of these components in different ways. First, the signalling channel, by which bond purchases often signal to markets the central bank’s commitment to engage in expansionary monetary policy. This adjusts market expectations about the future course of short-term interest rates, which in turn affects longterm rates. Second, investors demand a term premium over expected short-term rates.
As part of its contribution to improved business reporting last year, the Bank of Zambia invited Mr Allan Beatie, International Business Editor, with one of the leading global newspapers, the Financial Times, to share views with journalists here in Zambia. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, there are a myriad of pointers that can be given to where economic, business and financial information can be found. As a starting point, I would like to suggest that journalists look around this room and will no doubt recognize the rich collection of invited guests who hold significant information from which we can learn a lot. These are people who can stimulate debate, provide relevant information, validate it, and explain its proper use. Colleagues, allow me now to focus on one key stake-holder mentioned above, namely the business and financial writers’ fraternity. It is heartening to note that the judges feel that the standards of reporting have improved significantly. I am also pleased to note that those who have been past prize winners are continuing to apply themselves effectively and raising the standards of the profession as a whole. It is therefore my delight to be able to officiate at August gathering of business and financial writers knowing they are all putting in a more than average effort to attain today’s awards. Ladies and Gentlemen, the top prizes over the last 3 years have been designed to build capacity in the journalists nominated.

I would like to begin my presentation this evening by sharing with you some of the recent significant developments in our economy: 1. Positive and significant real GDP Growth rates over the last 7 years. 2. Continuous and significant drop in overall annual inflation rate to levels below 10%. As at end 2006, overall annual inflation was 8.2% compared with 15.9% at end 2005. But I must hasten to add here that the impact of increases in petroleum products and anticipated millers upward adjustment of maize prices in line with FRA maize prices pose significant threats to overall inflation. 3. A fall in commercial banks lending interest rates. In line with falling inflation and yield rates on Government securities, the average commercial bank lending rate declined to 27.8% in December 2006 from 33.9% in December 2005. Although the trend is in the right direction, the Bank of Zambia considers the levels of lending rates to be still too high and I urge commercial banks to reduce their lending rates further to stimulate growth. 4. In 2006, the exchange rate recorded depreciation. Against the US dollar, the Kwacha depreciated by 21.1 percent compared to an appreciation of 26.4 percent in 2005.
This involves government bond purchases and marks the launch of quantitative easing. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Adding government securities and paper issued by supranational European institutions to the asset purchase programme was a very important step in the monetary easing and economic stimulus policy: the programme will run to September 2016 at least, with a monthly target of € billion for the three programmes as a whole, although government bonds will be the main component of the purchases and of the increase in the Eurosystem balance sheet. The programme is expected to give a significant monetary boost to the economy, keeping inflation in the medium term below, but close to, 2%. The monetary stimulus transmission mechanisms include both the easing of financing conditions for households and firms and, indirectly, the depreciation of the euro. Purchases of public securities will be allocated as follows: 88% to euro area sovereign and national government agency securities, and 12% to supranational institutions and international agencies resident in the euro area. Of the 88% of national government securities, 8 pp will be acquired by the ECB and the remaining 80% by national central banks, according to their capital key in the ECB, with some special rules for national central banks whose government debt markets are so small that these targets cannot be met.

Inevitably, correcting major imbalances comes at a very high cost in terms of employment and welfare, and that is the lesson that we can draw from the Great Expansion that ended in 2008 with the bursting of the real-estate bubble. Imbalances have to be corrected, although obviously not anyhow or at any speed. It has been argued, with a striking image, that if you are on the twenty-fifth floor of a building and wish to descend to street level, it is better to use the lift or the stairs than to jump out of the window, even though that would definitely be the fastest way down. The reforms that have been approved in Spain – in particular the adjustment of public spending and revenues, bank restructuring and labour market reform – have been rigorous, but also prudent, and this has also contributed to the recovery. That is certainly the opinion of our European partners and of the markets. The European Monetary Union originated more than twenty years ago in the Maastricht Treaty, and became a reality in the markets more than fifteen years back. In those days, the idea of a Monetary union was capable of mobilising extensive political support, but with time, and the crisis, this has been somewhat eroded. The Monetary Union alters economic policy priorities and their relative importance and changes the way in which economic pressures are relieved. It is an economic construct, but also a political one, and cannot survive without political support.
Some old habits in explaining FX rates no longer make much sense. For example, the concept of fundamental factors that determine the current account, whose balance is then equilibrated by capital flows. This vantage point usually rests on the implicit assumption that trade flows are the "real" and causative side of the coin, while capital flows are a flexible gap filler, a sort of second round financial mechanism set off to match any given trade imbalance. In a world of integrated capital markets one may also have good reason to argue the other way round. Why are long-term capital flows, driven by perceived rates of capital productivity, less "real and fundamental" than trade flows? Would it not also be possible to argue - based on recent experience - that capital flows to the United States were, for a long time, the fundamental causative change which effected - as a consequence - the deterioration in the current account? Be that as it may, traders, investors and central bankers would be well advised to accept the fact, and be prepared for it, that in the short- and medium-term surprises are always possible in the Forex markets. This was so in the past and will continue to be so in the future. Smallness and connectedness: some facts Let me now talk about the SFR, about its main features as a currency which is traded and held in international portfolios.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Monetary policy and credit markets Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of St Gallen, St Gallen, 22 January 2004. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The economic slump of the past two years has affected the credit markets. Corporate loans declined, and on the capital market redemptions of shares and bonds of private borrowers exceeded new issues. In this speech, a few general points concerning credit financing and monetary policy will be discussed. The financing opportunities and, concomitantly, a borrower’s expenditure behaviour depend on the value of capital assets eligible as collateral or, more generally, on the borrower’s balance sheet structure. Due to the major significance of real estate as security, the situation on the real estate market in turn has a considerable bearing on credit conditions. The Swiss National Bank thus keeps a careful eye on price development in the real estate market. Monetary policy influences the prices of investments and thus impacts on the economy via the borrowers’ balance sheets. This is not the only channel - and certainly not the most important one through which monetary policy exerts an influence; it may, however, be relevant under certain circumstances. Since corporate balance sheets differ considerably from one enterprise to another, monetary policy has distributive effects.