samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Loan growth in July increased to 11.8 percent while deposits including bill of exchange grew by 1.9 percent. Liquidity in the system remains adequate, with loan/deposit ratio excluding interbank transactions at 90.1 percent in July. On asset quality, gross NPL ratio edged downward to 6.4 percent in June. These numbers show that the performance of the Thai banking sector is quite robust, and is well positioned to support the economy. Fourth, a more difficult picture to assess is the impact of the turmoil on the economy and how this would translate into the impact on the banking sector. So far, notwithstanding the less helpful global environment, the Thai economy has performed relatively well, with growth averaging 5.7 percent in the first half of this year. But going forward, market participants expect the economy to become more affected by the slowing global economy. Our own forecast also sees growth to be less buoyant in the second half of the year, reflecting a more adverse impact on exports. But overall, the momentum of growth should not be too adversely affected given the support that growth could gain from domestic demand which is being supported by high farm income, continued credit availability, and supportive fiscal policy. Moreover, lower oil prices and monetary policy that focuses on inflation should provide a stable price environment conducive to domestic demand and to export competitiveness. Also, continued current account surpluses, lower external indebtedness, and high domestic savings have made the economy’s financial conditions more stable, by reducing its dependency on capital flows.

At the same time, economists are increasingly being given the opportunity to help governments design new policies and regulations2. And, in this respect, we should bear in mind that carefully designed scientific experiments have been an engine of economic, technological, and social progress. Social experiments have become crucial to ensure that governments implement policies with a proven record of success3, that are based on evidence and not on prejudice or intuition. We are now in a position to create a virtuous circle that begins with the allocation of resources to the compilation of data and the provision of access to them, continues with the evaluation of public policies, and ends with the application of the findings to the design of policies. However, unlike medical trials, social experiments – large-scale, publicly funded randomised controlled trials – have not become the gold standard for the evaluation of public policy interventions. 1  Einar, L. y Levin, J. (2014) "The data revolution and Economic Analysis", Working Paper 19035 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 2  Duflo, E (2017)"The Economist as Plumber" Richard T. Ely Lecture, American Economic review: Papers and Proceedings 2017, 107(5):1-26 3  Heffetz, O y List, J (2021) "Who's afraid of evidence-based Policymaking?" Artefactual Field Experiments 00739, The Field Experiments Website 1  In many cases, critics argue that such experiments are inherently unfair. Ironically, this resistance to experimentation could eventually lead to less progress and even less fairness.
Our reorganization strategy focuses on four aspects, namely organizational structure and work process, human resource management, decision-making process, and database and information technology. Our hierarchical structure has now been reduced from a total of seven layers to four. Authorities and responsibilities are being further delegated toward a lower level to the operating officers in charge. This helps reduce the previously lengthy approval process and increase our flexibility. New departments have been established to better cope with the rapidly changing economy and the rising information need of the organization. These include the Data Management Group, the Information and Public Relation Group, the Planning Group who conducts a bank-wide risk assessment as well as a new Department of Risk Management and Information Technology Examination, who monitor risk profile and risk management at the financial institutions. In addition, our business processes are now more client-oriented with a new website, new voice-mail, and new central point of contacts being offered as services to our stakeholders. Both the Netherlands and Thailand are small open economies in the world market. To survive the tide of globalization, we both need a well thought out strategies. We have to choose our battleground and cooperate with friends around the world. To do this, local strength has to be further strengthened while lessons and technologies must be learnt from others. Here, international co-operations through jointed ventures, through foreign direct investment, or through international trade will play major roles in our successes.

So, we must heartily embrace the process and take the best opportunities offered by the integration of the global communities while limit the potential adverse consequences that come along with the process. To do this, we must reexamine ourselves to review our weaknesses and our strengths. After all, there was an old Chinese saying: "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." Thailand learned her first-hand lessons the hard way and had opportunities to reexamine herself in detail in the past couple years. Several weaknesses were identified. Prominent in the list is, of course, we do not fully know our enemies. This has already been partially remedied by simply being part of the game, staying competitive in the world market, and actively participating in the new knowledge-based economy. Thai Ministry of Commerce now has 48 representative offices around the world. And in my case, the Bank of Thailand constantly sends our staffs to work at other public and private organizations, both inside and outside the country. But still, at the core of all of these, we need to make sure that our corporate sector gets back on its feet.
New projects such as the Konkola Deep Mine, Lumwana Mine and Nickel Mining in the Southern Province have come on board in addition to other mining initiatives going on in most provinces of the country. Another key development in the sector has been the revival of zinc production, once, one of Zambia’s metal exports in the 1970s. Sable Zinc of Kabwe (owned by Metorex) has commenced processing the mining dumps in Kabwe. Ladies and Gentlemen, although investment in the mining sector requires massive capital by large conglomerates, the majority of our citizens are increasingly involved in the sector  BIS Review 77/2008  1  through the supply of goods and services to support the mines. However, the main challenge to the growth of this sector has been the availability of finance. Most companies struggle to find finances to meet their contract obligations. The need for financing is immense especially as the mining sector is growing year on year and will need to acquire new equipment and spare parts as the mining companies invest heavily in the development of new mines. It is gratifying to know that the USD 50 million facility in favour of the Zambian Mining Services Companies being signed today, is expected to assist major players in the supplies and services sub-sector of the mining industry to execute contracts with mining companies.

For example, one would want to be certain that in no circumstance would management see a benefit from putting the firm into resolution in order to convert its debt holdings into equity. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  jurisdiction, even in periods of stressful financial market conditions, without taxpayer funds, in a way that minimizes knock-on effect to financial markets and other financial institutions. As I have indicated in earlier speeches, I endorse the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) single point of entry (SPE) resolution framework for the United States. For the SPE approach to be successful, firms subject to this resolution regime will need to have a sufficient amount of long-term debt at the parent company that the FDIC can convert into equity to guarantee that the new bridge company is adequately capitalized. Counterparties at the subsidiary level need to be assured that they have no reason to pull back from the new bridge company. In the international arena this type of requirement is referred to as GLAC, or “gone concern loss absorption capacity.” The Financial Stability Board is working on a proposal for an international GLAC standard, with a target date for consideration this November. Finalizing this standard is an important to-do item. As I discussed earlier, both the amount and the composition of additional resources are important.
Regulators around the globe are very mindful of this trend and are willing to take calculated risks on innovative ventures, going beyond the banking system for solutions. There is thus, a more level-playing field and more business opportunities for non- traditional companies that are responsive and effective in meeting the financial services needs of consumers. For example, new robo-advisory businesses are now providing high quality investment advice at low cost, while payment technology companies are making cross-border payments cheaper, 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  quicker and more efficient. TransferWise, a cross-border payment company is now moving to offer ‘borderless’ bank accounts for businesses that operate across border. This is a challenge for many incumbents. The second observation is that data could be the ‘king-maker’ of finance. Companies that are able to control and leverage on data to deliver superior customer experience will possess the greatest advantage. Successful startups over the past decade such as AirBnb, Grab, Snapchat and Uber have all utilised technology and data to improve business models and customer interactions. For the financial sector, this could potentially mark a highly interesting shift of mantra in the future from “cash is king” to “data is king”. The arms race of the 21st century is really big data. Firms on Wall Street and the City of London are now employing data scientists en masse. They are the new breed of ‘bankers’. The bankers of the future.

The first one is more fundamental and concerns the closer degree of financial and economic integration between countries. Globalization of the world economy has been driven by a variety of forces including rising trade in goods, increased international capital flows, greater technological spillovers, and growing labor mobility. While these factors have brought about a more efficient allocation of resources across national borders and facilitated higher growth and development across countries, they have also created a world environment in which shocks have become more global in nature and where crisis in one country can easily affect others. The end product of greater international economic interdependencies, especially in financial markets, is therefore the enhancement of the underlying international business cycle linkages. Which brings me to the second aspect of the world economic environment that I would like to touch on today. This aspect concerns the immediate state of the world economy. The globalization of information technology (IT) production has meant that the correction of the unsustainable boom in IT spending has had a particularly widespread impact on the world economy. All the major industrialized countries are experiencing a synchronized slowdown in their business cycles, adversely affecting countries in the Asian region who rely heavily on exports of high-tech products. These developments have been accompanied by a steep decline in the growth in world trade. Falling commodity prices and increased competition in world markets have also put pressure on the external sector as exporters grapple with both weaker volume and lower prices.
As a rule, Switzerland has lower interest rates than other countries, one of the reasons for this being that investors value the security of Swiss franc investments. Following the outbreak of the financial crisis, many central banks quickly lowered their policy rates towards zero. This meant Swiss money market rates were practically at the same level as those of other countries. Amid the prevailing uncertainty at that time, the demand for Swiss francs rose sharply. To counter the extreme upward pressure, and thus ward off the threat of a severe recession coupled with deflation, we introduced the minimum exchange rate in 2011. This initially brought calm to the situation. Owing to international developments, it became apparent at the beginning of 2015 that the minimum exchange rate was no longer sustainable. To limit the appreciation of the Swiss franc after its discontinuation, we set a negative interest rate of −0.75%. The impact of negative interest proved considerable, as it helped stabilise the exchange rate situation in short order. Without it, the franc would have been significantly stronger in recent years, which would have been highly detrimental to the Swiss economy and would have jeopardised price stability. And, ladies and gentlemen, negative interest remains central to our monetary policy to this day.

Unusual though they may be, ladies and gentlemen, negative interest rates are nonetheless necessary in the current situation if we are to fulfil our mandate against the backdrop of low interest rates worldwide. At the same time, low interest rates do give rise to certain challenges. Negative interest therefore also attracts criticism. That said, we are convinced that the benefits clearly hold sway. Our assessment centres on the fact that we take an overall view, and seek to serve the interests of the country as a whole. From the perspective of savers and pension funds, the present situation with low interest income is, of course, difficult. You might think that the SNB could simply remedy this. But let us assume that we were to raise the SNB policy rate to zero in the current situation. The economy would cool down dramatically, inflation would fall well into negative territory, and unemployment would rise. In such an environment, there would be scarcely any increase in longer-term interest rates. Furthermore, we would probably soon have to lower our policy rate again given the economic slowdown and lower inflation. Hence any gains in income for savers and pension funds would not be sustainable. From the banks’ perspective, negative interest rate payments to the SNB are a cost factor. We are aware of the burden this represents. That is why in September we adjusted our calculation of the exemption thresholds in such a way that the payments made by the banking system have nearly halved.
Furthermore, these institutions played a very important role in resolving the crisis, since they were able to take over other institutions in a weaker position. It is not surprising, therefore, that the international presence of Spanish banks has increased since the crisis, in contrast to that of the banks of most European countries, which have tended to reduce their international operations. Over the last decade, Spanish banks have increased their international exposure by 45%, while the banks of countries such as Germany, France and Italy have reduced theirs by 38%, 16% and 15%, respectively. 5/17  On the other hand, the effort to adjust business in Spain has been highly significant. Specifically, over the last 10 years, the total assets of business in Spain have been reduced by 20% and employment in the industry by 32%. Also, the number of institutions has fallen by 34%, with a decrease in the number of domestic banks1 from 122 at the beginning of the crisis to 61 in 2018. As a result, concentration has increased significantly. Most of the mergers and takeovers have given rise to healthier banks, with significant cost savings. 1  Grupos consolidados y entidades sin grupo, de propiedad nacional. 6/17  One effect of this consolidation process has been the disappearance of 43% of the bank branches existing in Spain.

However, there is notable unevenness across geographical areas, with specific areas of the main Spanish cities and of the Balearic and Canary Islands where housing prices are rising sharply. This rise in real estate activity is not resulting in an increase in the associated lending. Bank credit to real estate and construction firms continues to fall at rates above 10%, partly due to the sale of packages of non-performing loans. In addition, the stock of household mortgage loans is practically stagnant. It is true that the flow of new lending is fairly buoyant, but starting from a low level. Furthermore, household mortgage credit standards remain prudent. Specifically, practically all the loans granted are for an amount below the value of the real estate transaction, as compared with only 50% before the crisis. Mortgages represent, on average, less than four times the annual income of households, and the related debt service (repayments plus interest) accounts for less than 20% of that income in 50% of mortgages. Also, mortgages with long maturities, of over 30 years, represent less than 10% of the total. In any event, it should not be overlooked that, although the credit associated with this activity is not increasing and new household mortgages are being granted with prudence, a potential downward adjustment to housing prices would still have a negative impact (although logically a smaller one) on deposit-taking institutions through the effect on foreclosed asset valuations and the indirect impact on aggregate levels of consumption and activity.
Thus, we revised our output gap forecasts for this period upwards. Growth composition became much more balanced as we expected (Chart 12). Despite the weak course of the global economy, exports continued to increase, whereas the demand for imported goods and services maintained a downward trend. Consequently, the contribution of net external demand to growth has been positive for the first time after a protracted period. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 11. Chart 12. Final Domestic Demand  Exports and Imports of Goods and Services  (Seasonally Adjusted, 2008Q1=100)  (Seasonally Adjusted, 1998 Prices, Billion TL)  Source: TurkStat, CBRT. * Estimate. Source: TurkStat, CBRT. Indicators regarding the last quarter of 2011 point that final domestic demand remains flat and the rebalancing process in the economy is going on as envisaged. Owing to the monetary tightening, the growth rate of final domestic demand is expected to remain moderate in the forthcoming period, as suggested by the recent loan and orders data (Chart 13). Accordingly, our inflation forecasts are based on the assumption that domestic demand will decelerate further during early 2012. Chart 13. Chart 14. Growth Rates of Business and Consumer Loans  3-Month Ahead Expectations for Orders  (13-Week Average, Adjusted for Exchange Rate Effect, Annual Percent Change)  (Up-Down, Seasonally Adjusted, Percent)  Source: CBRT. Source: CBRT. As I mentioned at the beginning, global growth forecasts have been revised significantly downwards since the publication of the October Inflation Report mainly owing to the euro area.

It would appear, therefore, that as the economy responds to a gradual improvement in external demand, it may still be constrained by its own rigidities. Removing these obstacles and correcting the resultant imbalances is, therefore, a precondition for achieving more rapid growth, which in turn is the key to accelerating convergence with euro area income levels. 2  BIS Review 154/2009  Faster growth is achievable but depends on … The Roman writer Ovid said that times change and we change with them. That may be so, but what really matters in today’s circumstances is how rapidly we read the signs of the times and adapt to them. I will focus on three directions of necessary change. The first is towards greater competitiveness. The second, and related thrust, would be to promote higher productivity. The third focuses on fiscal consolidation and the pursuit of sound public finances. Before proceeding, however, I should stress that none of these objectives is attainable without further structural reforms, debunking the popular notion that the State has an unlimited capacity to satisfy demands for free goods and services and an end to inefficient practices that involve subsidies. … greater cost competitiveness … First of all, in Malta’s case sustained economic growth depends largely on our ability to attract export-oriented foreign direct investment. Given the past increases in unit labour costs, the only way of maintaining a competitive edge is by ensuring that these costs rise by less than those of our competitors.
So you may be reassured to hear that we spend most of our time worrying about the risks that could throw the UK economy off course; and arguing about how to respond appropriately. So what are the main risks facing us now? Last year saw the fastest growth in world output in three decades. We expect growth this year to be less spectacular but still robust. But while the US and China are still expanding strongly, growth has showed signs of faltering in Japan and, to a lesser extent, in our major overseas market, the euro area, and especially Germany. We think this weakness is likely to prove temporary, but we could be disappointed. Unbalanced growth creates strains. The US has a large current account deficit, which is mirrored by surpluses in the other major trading blocks. The risk is that a better balance will only come about through sharp adjustments in exchange rates and a marked increase in US savings, which may cause a slowdown in global activity. Closer to home, there is uncertainty about the near term momentum of household spending, by far the largest influence on domestic demand. While it is difficult to be confident about the path of retail sales since the autumn, there is little evidence of much underlying buoyancy. Retail sales are not the whole story, and our central view is that any weakness in consumer spending is likely to be temporary. But we could easily be wrong.

BIS Review 11/2005  1  Low inflation is not in itself a solution to problems like this. But it is a pre condition for solving them. Merseyside had bad luck to be confronted with more economic change in the second half of the twentieth century than most people could cope with at the time. Liverpool never lost its sense of humour, though there were times when it came close to losing its way. Sadly, you can’t laugh your way out of economic decline. High inflation and economic instability fostered the wrong climate for taking the long term decisions that were needed to give Merseyside a new future. The levels of economic inactivity and social deprivation that you are still grappling with today are in part legacies of the 1970s and 1980s, when the sharp ups and downs in inflation, interest rates and national output made it much harder to adapt to structural economic change at the regional level. But more recent success in delivering low inflation and economic stability has created a much better climate for you to succeed. Economic regeneration can’t get off the ground without inspired local leadership, and committed local partnerships. But even with them, it is a long haul to make the investments in infrastructure that modern businesses expect. And so called soft investments – in people, skills, and communities – are even more of a challenge. Low inflation and low nominal interest rates matter to you because they provide a sound foundation for just this kind of long term planning.