samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The enthusiasm and momentum for them is apparent both from what the market tells us and from recent surveys. A clear message from our wide range of property contacts is that greater liquidity is essential if commercial property is to remain attractive as an asset class. There is equally a clear message that successful development of securitisation and derivatives will not on its own be the saviour of commercial property. But without it property will not turn in a performance which can stand comparison with competing assets. We need a mature, liquid cash market in property with a healthy derivative market to permit successful management of risk. These are essential characteristics of efficient markets which are necessary for efficient use of property by users as a factor of production. Without such a development there is a risk that the costs of doing business in the UK will be uncompetitively high. I do not know how, or indeed whether, the obstacles to the development of such markets can be easily found. But I regard these issues as nationally important. Conclusion 22 So, what is likely to happen in the next eight years? Let me sum up my vision. 23 The current strong commitment to keeping inflation in check will create conditions more conducive to rational long-term decisions. Commercial property is still to a large extent a longer-term asset and should benefit from this environment.

Mr. Kent examines the challenges facing the UK commercial property market as it moves towards the 21st century Speech by Mr. Pen Kent, an Executive Director of the Bank of England, to The Investment Property Forum Annual Lunch in London on 15/1/97. Introduction 1 The IPF has built up a significant and diverse membership in recent years and has deservedly become one of the most prominent and respected trade associations within your industry. I am delighted to have the opportunity to address you all this afternoon. 2 When Mark Burton suggested that I might look back at developments in the commercial property market during the eight years that I have been doing my present job, that appealed to me because I shall be retiring from the Bank next month. But I also like to look to the future and to identify coming issues and challenges. With that in mind, I will also pick out some of the factors relevant to the industry as it moves forward. The Past 3 My involvement with commercial property began in 1985, when plans for Canary Wharf were beginning to materialise. One of the questions put to the Bank by the developers was whether we would change our policy encouraging banks to have their offices close to the Bank. We recognised that our policy was distorting the market and we decided to make the change. I have followed the property story ever since.
Such a chart does speak to the whole distribution, and it facilitates easy comparison with the previous forecast round [Slide 17]. But it still has the problem that it assigns a precise probability to a given outcome. A solitary Bayesian policymaker may be comfortable with that. But in reality there is no unique answer that encapsulates the collective judgement of the MPC. In the Bank’s experience, MPC members find it more important to focus on distinguishing between the different broad orders of magnitude of future events, and are less interested in debating whether something will happen 49 times out of 100 or 52 times. One answer to this tension is to describe the problem in words. But that carries its own difficulties. An alternative is to design a graphical device which prevents the illusion of spurious precision. Simple graphical changes to the chart such as [Slide 18] emphasise that the MPC’s view is not best expressed by a precise numerical for the probability. But a downside of this sort of representation is that it does not readily permit comparisons between successive forecasts. Instead, a further alternative that the MPC is considering is to present this as a “probability ribbon” [Slide 19]. This shows a range estimate of the probability that inflation will exceed target, defined by the edges of the relevant band of the fan chart. In doing so it preserves the broad impression of the Committee’s overall view, yet filters out the artificial accuracy.

BIS Review 36/2010  5  risk failure by pursuing strategies that are different from the norm. The penalty of failure may be less if others fail in the same way – as Keynes pointed out was true of banks. (iv)  People have excessive faith in their own judgements and are subject to confirmation bias and wishful thinking. An experiment, well known in the literature, asked respondents to report 90% confidence intervals around our estimates of a set of unknown quantities (e.g. the diameter of the moon). 13 But the true answer lay outside the reported confidence intervals half of the time. This reflects a general result that people are overly confident in their own judgements. This effect suggests that there may be a tendency to understate uncertainty and could explain why the “severe” stress testing scenarios used by banks before the crisis were so mild. 5. Policy implications  These observations about decision making under uncertainty in economics have implications for policy along three dimensions. First, decision making under uncertainty affects the dynamics of the economy. Some of the psychological biases discussed above can offer an explanation for “herding” behaviour and “risk illusion” (a tendency to over/underestimate likelihoods of different type of events). Taken together, these biases could offer an explanation for periodic bouts of exuberance in the economy and the financial system in particular. 14 As such they should bear on our assessment of the likelihood of the range of possible outcomes.
You may remember that in the quarters that followed the invasion of Ukraine, growth prospects were regularly revised downwards, as our European economy suffered in particular from high energy prices, fear of a shortage in energy sources, and hence general uncertainty - and even worries about how we would get through the winter. Europe reacted swiftly, diversifying its sources of energy supply, and global market prices decreased sharply, especially from the fourth quarter of 2022. In the end, the euro area economy expanded by 3.6% in 2022, still higher than in the US, despite a slowdown in the second half. The likelihood of a recession in 2023 is now very remote, and growth prospects have even been revised upwards, to 1.0% in 20231 (up by 0.5 percentage point compared with December forecasts), before rebounding to 1.6% in 2024 and 2025. Faced with a historic geopolitical and economic shock, Europe has shown remarkable resilience, and greater unity. Euro area inflation further accelerated after the invasion of Ukraine, but the outlook for 2023 and beyond has also recently improved – although with mixed news. On the one hand, the earlier-than-expected easing in energy prices has led to a decrease in headline inflation since October 2022, from 10.6% to 6.9% in March2 – though this level is obviously still far too high. We also expect tensions on food prices, which have soared since 2022, to start fading from the third quarter of 2023, in the wake of the recent sharp decrease on international markets.

Historical data does not always predict the future and so we should not place too much confidence in models. A floor may be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  necessary to prevent the combination of low risk weights and high leverage from becoming unreasonable. Most of what I have been saying here has been said by us at the Riksbank for some time. We have encountered both counterarguments and cries of encouragement. We have also been asked if we couldn’t be more precise. Consequently, I thought I would wrap up by telling you a little about what will be happening in the immediate future. The Riksbank will clarify its recommendations soon When motorway junctions are planned, the traffic planners take many factors into account to ensure that the traffic flows smoothly and safely. Benefit is balanced against cost – and safety is given a high priority. We at the Riksbank take the same approach when we and other authorities are considering how to implement Basel III in Sweden. The Riksbank will soon announce its view of the measures that should be adopted. One example is how much higher we think that the capital adequacy requirements for the major banks should be – in addition to the minimum levels in Basel III. One important step is this year’s second Financial Stability Report, to be published on 29 November. In connection with this, we will also publish a report analysing the economically appropriate capital adequacy requirements for the major Swedish banks.
Mr. Camdessus shares his views on a new financial architecture for a globalized world Address by the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Mr. M. Camdessus, at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London on 8/5/98. The G-7/G-8 Summit will be held in Birmingham next week. High on the Summit agenda will be the issue of how to renovate the architecture of the international financial system in the face of the tremendous changes under way in the global economy. The Asian crisis has been so unexpected in many of its aspects, so broad, so cruel in its human consequences that even before the crisis has run its full course - the leaders of the world want to embark on the design of a new architecture. This is certainly the right thing to do, and the venue of this meeting could hardly be more fitting. Like many other cities in advanced countries, Birmingham has experienced the forces of change in the global economy first hand - from the loss of traditional industries to the challenge of finding new employment opportunities. Moreover, two centuries ago, this city was at the heart of the Industrial Revolution, an era that, like our own, was a time of extremely rapid change. At that time, intellectuals of all schools of thought used to meet frequently in Birmingham - every full moon, I understand - and bring their reflections to bear on the challenges of their new world.

One can even imagine that they want to point out some additional avenues, which, as we have been absorbed by more immediately pressing aspects of our work - we have not, as yet, been able to explore sufficiently. What next? Trying to answer the question of “what next” is a risky endeavor. No doubt with globalization unfolding its opportunities and risks, new priorities will promptly capture our attention and overtake our pre-established agendas. But it is always better to try to anticipate them, particularly when they reflect problems that should already have been addressed, be it: 2  As regards the latter, some follow-up actions are needed, including measures to discourage excessive reliance on short-term financing and strengthen countries’ capacity to withstand sudden shifts in market sentiment. In addition, the Interim Committee has requested the Fund to consider other ways to strengthen incentives for creditors to use available information to analyze risks appropriately and avoid excessive risktaking. Possibilities include introducing provisions in bond contracts regarding bondholder representation and voting in case of negotiations on bond restructuring; extending the Fund’s policy of providing financing to member countries in arrears to private creditors; encouraging strong bankruptcy systems for both domestic and international capital markets; and advising member countries to exercise greater caution in granting public guarantees. We also need to examine the possibility of closer contacts with creditors in order to explain Fund arrangements and, if needed, catalyze private sector financing so as to achieve more equitable burden sharing vis-à-vis the official sector and limit moral hazard.
If the Bank aims for a low but positive rate of inflation, and imported goods prices are falling, the prices of other goods and services will have to rise faster to compensate. So for example, the prices of imported goods and services fell by 13% between 1995 and 2004, while the prices of other consumer goods and services rose, on average, by around 20%. To produce this result, and keep overall inflation close to target (as it was), the Bank was probably able to keep interest rates lower than they might otherwise have been. That’s why people sometimes say that the falling world prices resulting from globalisation have acted as ‘favourable tailwinds’ for central banks over the past decade. And why, over the last couple of years, there have been worries that high and volatile energy prices would provide ‘strong headwinds’. Second, there have been important innovations in the practice of monetary policy over the past decade. These have not been confined to the UK - there is an international traffic in good monetary policy ideas, as in almost everything else. So while the UK was a pioneer in some respects, our current approach to policy is more fairly described as close to international best practice. There’s been a widespread move to give central banks more independence, with clear objectives and a strong commitment to transparency and accountability.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Innovative financial inclusion Opening remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Global Symposium on Innovative Financial Inclusion, Kuala Lumpur, 21 September 2016. *  *  *  While the global economy is still recovering from the Global Financial Crisis, the focus on boosting global growth has never eclipsed the financial inclusion agenda. In fact, policymakers continue to recognise the importance of financial inclusion and have accorded it as a global priority to address the widening income inequality gap, to promote the economic empowerment and protection of low income households and SMEs and to unlock the growth potential of the fast-expanding middle class population. Expanded opportunities to save securely, to invest in productive activities and to protect against unforeseen shocks, would meet the needs of the underserved. This would drive domestic demand, a key engine of growth for many economies. Between 2011 and 2014, the World Bank estimates that 500 million people have gained access to formal financial services for the first time. If our efforts continue, we are on our way to assisting the remaining 2 billion adults that remain financially excluded. A succession of technology breakthroughs combined with the ubiquity of mobile devices present significant opportunities to scale up financial inclusion to an unprecedented level.
Jean-Pierre Landau: Extreme events in finance – some reflexions Remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Landau, Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, at the conference on extreme events jointly organised by the Bank of France and the Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), Paris, 3 September 2008. Updated on 23 November 2008. I want to thank Benoit Coeuré and my colleagues Laurent Clerc, Sylvie Mathérat, Imène Rahmouni, Anne-Marie Rieu and Pierre-François Weber for their comments and suggestions on earlier versions. *  *  *  The current crisis is a strong reminder, if needed, that extreme events can occur inside the financial system. Over the last year, we have witnessed many episodes (1) whose outcome can reasonably be defined as "catastrophic" and, (2) which could not have been predicted according to probability based on past experience. Here, I would like to develop four points: are financial systems prone to extreme events? Is this propensity aggravated by modern finance, as it evolved during the last decade? Does this problematic help us understand the current crisis? And, finally, what are the possible policy responses? Are financial systems prone to extreme events ? I can see at least two reasons why this may be the case. 1. Financial systems are complex systems. They are based on interdependence between multiple actors and counterparties. Transmissions occur through networks whose structure and architecture is constantly transformed by financial innovation and regulatory arbitrage. This potentially creates numerous feedback loops.

In late November, the annual growth of budget revenues was only 2 percent, almost entirely reflecting the low pace of generating the tax revenues. On the other hand, public expenditures have maintained high growth rates, accounting for 16.4 percent in November. The budget deficit reached ALL 65 billion in November. The deficit has been mostly financed through foreign borrowing and privatization receipts, dampening the pressures in the domestic financial market Rapid growth of expenditure and budget deficit during 2009 has further increased the public debt level, accounting for 58 per cent of GDP at the end of November. The Bank of Albania deems that the future budget policy orientation towards fiscal consolidation, aiming at reducing the public debt, is now a prerequisite for the macroeconomic stability in the country. As we have constantly stated, the public debt reduction will mitigate the pressure of the public sector on the financial markets, creating more room for the private sector. Consolidation of public finances will also lower the risk premiums in the economy and will raise the monetary policy effectiveness. Monetary supply slowed down further in the second half, reflecting to a great extent, the ever lower credit growth. Annual growth of private sector loan portfolio slowed down to 10 percent in November. Unlike the first six months of 2009, when credit growth curbing was more  BIS Review 11/2010  3  affected by the tightened supply, in the second half of the year the credit performance was dictated by decreased demand for loans.
As I mentioned earlier, the UK economy has been growing rapidly. Over the past year, job creation has been the quickest on record, pushing unemployment down to 6.5 per cent. The economy is finally producing as much as it did on the eve of the crisis in 2008, and inflation is back near its 2 per cent target. In short, the UK economy is starting to head back to normal. 1  Bank of England founding charter, 1694. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  As the economy normalises, Bank Rate will need to start to rise in order to achieve the inflation target. But the MPC has no pre-set course and the timing of any increases in interest rates will be determined by the data. In this regard, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is balancing the implications for inflation of hard evidence of sustained economic momentum against conflicting signals over the degree of slack in the labour market. While some indicators such as wages suggest that there was more labour supply than we had previously thought, it is also true that spare capacity is being used up a bit more rapidly than we had expected. A key judgment for the MPC is when and to what extent these developments will translate into real wage growth, and in turn that wage growth into price pressures. Next month’s Inflation Report provides the next opportunity to update our thinking on these important questions. A durable expansion rests ultimately on moving from anaemic to strong productivity growth.

To do so, we must make global finance more resilient and fair. To make the system more resilient, funding and derivatives markets are being overhauled. Formerly risky areas of shadow banking, such as securitisation, are being transformed into sustainable market-based sources of finance. Financial institutions are being made stronger, with a seven-fold increase in the minimum capital requirements for the world’s largest banks. In the UK alone, major banks have raised over £ billion in new capital over the past few years and the Bank of England is now regularly testing their resilience to severe shocks. To make the system fairer, we should look to the insights of a third great Scottish figure, Adam Smith. Smith was a great advocate of competition. Its frequent absence in financial services has been corrosive. The most prominent examples are large, complex banks which privatise gains but socialise losses. The G20 summit later this year in Brisbane will be decisive in determining whether we can end too-big-to-fail. A more pernicious development has been the widespread rigging of some financial markets for personal gain. This has both diminished the effectiveness of markets and undermined trust in markets themselves. Adam Smith emphasised the importance of conduct, or what he referred to as “the established rules of behaviour,” by which “many men behave very decently, and through the whole of their lives avoid any considerable degree of blame.” 3 Those established rules of behaviour – social capital – underpin the functioning of the free market.
Every single detail of micro line is visible, and it is the result of a meticulous and love of his work of a single artist, who worked with a view to attain the highest standard of perfection. Banknote printing of today, unlike in the early days of banknote history, uses sophisticated machinery for the highest degree of consistency. Millions of pieces are printed every day to the exact quality standard. If you take two pieces of banknotes of any denomination, chances are they are identical in every respect. But misprints do occur though very rare. Occasionally, members of the public get excited when they are in possession of irregular banknotes with some smudge of ink or more seriously incomplete portrait of certain icons. While we at Bank Negara will do everything we can to ensure every single banknote is fit for usage by removing any irregular ones from circulation, currency collectors are willing to pay a handsome premium to own imperfect banknotes. Dato’ Sharuddin, the President of the Malaysian Numismatic Heritage Club who is here with us today might have seen some of these irregular banknotes. But unfortunately, we at Bank Negara are never been able to get hold of such pieces so that we can exchange them. This despite all the effort made to retrieve such banknotes from circulation. I guess this gives credence to the economic axiom, scarcity enhances value. Banknotes are art masterpieces in their own right.

Should disturbances occur in a creditor country, their banks may tend to rein in their reaches to preserve liquidity thus worsen the affect on the borrower country. Another reason may be that lenders outside Asia tend to look at Asia as a block, not differentiating one country from another much. Therefore, in order to lessen the risk of crisis and contagion, we have to find ways for the Asian countries to prevent crisis or deal better with imbalances. This means dealing better with capital flows, or rather the sudden reversal of capital flows. Now comes the third question: Which initiative can be most effective in dealing with capital flows? The Asian governments have cooperated in certain schemes. The Chiang Mai Initiative whereby Asian countries sign swap agreements with each other to provide temporary financing to each other in emergencies. Even though the combined amounts exceed $ billion, it is still small compared to the volume of foreign exchange trade in the world. We also have a system of mutual surveillance, but Asian culture sometimes does not go for direct confrontation to such particular issues. The best safeguard, in my opinion, is therefore to have stronger structures in Asian countries to deal with financial shocks. This is why I attach much hope in the Asian Bond Markets Initiative being proposed. BIS Review 28/2003  1  This leads me to the fourth question: What is the Asian Bond Markets Initiative? What does it involve? The Asian Bond Markets Initiative can be viewed at 2 levels.