samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In coming years, it is reasonable to expect global term premia to rise as net asset purchases could shift significantly from the situation during the past four years when all net issuance within the G4 was effectively absorbed (Table 1). 35  Hélène Rey has been a key proponent of the importance of such channels. See, for example, Miranda-Agrippino, S and Rey, H (2015), ‘World asset markets and the global financial crisis’, NBER Working Paper No. 21722. 36 IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2017, Chapter 3. 37 Cesa-Bianchi, A and Sokol, A ‘The international credit channel of US monetary policy and credit shocks’, forthcoming. 14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  14  Table 1: G4 net asset issuance still low in 2017  $ Asset purchases Bond issuance Net issuance  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  -61  1756  451  670  642  1756  1254  1312  1799  1338  2936  2664  3534  2486  2263  1753  1525  1093  1286  1527  2997  908  3083  1816  1622  -3  270  -219  -513  189  Notes: G4 here are the UK, EA, US and Japan. Bond issuance refers to annual changes in the stock of the general government debt. Agency debt is also included for the US.

From what I have said it follows that there should be a repo rate that is commensurate with stable inflation and a demand growth that matches the expansion of capacity while the economy is also balanced in other respects. It is around this level of interest rates that the actual repo rate ought to be varied as activity moves up and down. So what is the Swedish economy’s sustainable growth rate and what is the commensurate repo rate? The Swedish economy’s sustainable growth rate A simple way of estimating the potential growth rate is to add the figure for the trend rate of increase in labour supply to the growth rate for labour productivity. 1  BIS Review 13/2000  The latest figures, based among other things on demographic changes and labour force participation, point to an annual increase in labour supply up to 2008 of 0.5%.1 As regards labour productivity, most of the evidence suggests that the trend in the 1990s was higher than in the 1970s and 1980s. In the period 1974-93, for example, the annual increase in labour productivity averaged approximately 1.4%, while the average since 1994 is about 1.9%.
Concerns that household or government debt will weigh on demand could cause firms to delay further their already weak investment spending (Chart 8 – see annex). Such rational corporate caution is consistent with the behaviour of many financial asset prices, which appear to be pricing the possibility of material downside tail risks, such as that economic weakness and persistently low global inflation become mutually reinforcing.11 This fear of fear itself might be reflected in other asset prices too; in particular those that measure or are influenced by inflation expectations. Along with measures from household surveys, some of these have fallen in recent months.12 Those expectations matter as they feed into the wage and price setting processes that ultimately determine inflation. That is why central banks are keenly alert to the possibility that low inflation could de-anchor mediumterm inflation expectations, increasing the persistence of inflation. 10  In UK-weighted terms, global output is estimated at 2% below potential. 11  Yields on sovereign bonds remain exceptionally low. In the six months to January, estimates of the equity risk premium rose by over 100bps in the UK and the euro area back to levels last seen in the heart of the crisis – December 2008 for the UK and June 2012 for the euro area. In addition, the probability of large declines in equity prices implied by options prices rebounded during 2014. Discussed in Carney, M (2015), “Fortune favours the bold”, Lecture to honour the memory of The Honourable James Michael Flaherty, P.C., Iveagh House, Dublin.

6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  With domestic demand growing at around 3% in 2014, the fastest for ten years, all these factors will underpin the momentum needed to bring domestic cost growth back to up to a rate consistent with the inflation target. The fall in inflation we’ve experienced is in large part down to falling energy prices. It is not generalised “deflation” proper. The proportion of prices that are falling is consistent with the average over the past decade. The Bank will be vigilant in monitoring inflation expectations. Declining headline inflation seems likely to have cooled households’ inflation expectations as the prices of the goods they buy frequently – like fuel and food – have declined markedly. On balance, however, inflation expectations remain broadly consistent with the 2% inflation target. As the MPC noted in our February Inflation Report, we retain considerable policy options in the event that downside risks materialise. 6. Conclusion  The Bank of England’s inflation target is symmetric. We care as much about inflation below target as above. With inflation below target and unemployment above its long-run sustainable rate, we are aiming to return inflation to target as quickly as possible. In our most recent forecast, The Bank expects to return inflation to target within two years and to make limited and gradual increases in Bank Rate over the next three years in order to achieve that in a sustainable manner.
“credere”) supports regaining the trust in the financial system and in the banks as institutions that 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  ensure the allocation of funds to the private and the public sector. Companies in Romania, as beneficiaries of European funds, need to respond to some pressing issues such as inadequate management and financial discipline. Only around 15% of small and medium companies are eligible for financing, with a management team capable to conduct a lucrative activity that reflects in a sound set of accounting documents, like the balance sheet and the P&L account. These companies too, can be affected by the contagion effect, for instance when their projections and cash flows are subject to repayment from other companies, with delays. To support these companies and to ease the access to finance, one needs to improve the policies and continue the financial reforms to create a more adequate and flexible frame for investments and the multiplier effect of co-financing. The European Investment Bank has been a strong pillar for this strategic economic development, channeling investments towards the crucial sectors of transport, digital infrastructure and the new technologies, education for skilled labour force, healthcare, or agriculture. The European Investment Bank contributes to creating the right mindset and responsible attitude of assuming calculated risks. It supports the communication of sound public policies and priorities for Romania’s economic and social development, to continue and expand the European integration and economic convergence.

Fraziali Ismail: Sound financial planning and knowing one’s rights as a financial consumer Keynote address by Mr Fraziali Ismail, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) at the Malaysian Financial Planning Council (MFPC) - Professional & Ethics Forum 2020, 9 December 2020. * * * As I reflect on the theme of today’s conference, I am reminded of the moral lessons from Shakespeare’s play ‘The Merchant of Venice’, a comedic yet tragic tale on the follies of poor financial planning, low financial literacy and predatory lending practices. It starts with the merchant, Bassanio, who is in desperate need of funds given his desire to court the rich heiress Portia. He approached his fellow merchant Antonio, to obtain a loan. Now, Antonio did not have the funds, but knew he would be getting a windfall soon, once his shipment of goods sailed in. Being the loyal friend, Antonio offered to stand as guarantor for this loan. So Bassanio and Antonio approached Shylock, the ah long of the day, who agreed to provide Bassanio an interestfree loan, but there was a catch. If Bassanio and Antonio defaulted in repayment of this loan, Antonio would have to repay Shylock with a pound of flesh. Unfortunately, Antonio’s shipment never sails in, and Antonio is left with the prospect of having to sacrifice a pound of his own flesh, while Bassanio lives happily ever after with his lady love Portia.
No one can say that they were sure how these innovations would shape things to come, and some of us, understandably, were just hoping they would go away so that we could get back to business as usual. Financial markets don’t really like surprises, and the idea that disruption is a good thing was a bit unfamiliar to many. 14. Over time, it has become apparent that these innovations, in particular the technologies and business innovation underpinning them, are here to stay and will naturally develop in a healthy financial system like Hong Kong’s. They have the potential to improve efficiencies, reduce intermediary cost and promote innovation. 15. Digital innovations encompass a wide spectrum of products and services beyond the commonly-known crypto-currencies. DeFi, given its composability feature, can inspire innovation in finance. Take tokenised green bonds as an example. We concept-tested the idea with the BIS Innovation Hub last year and are adopting it for an actual issuance  later this year. When both bond and cash are tokenised and brought on-chain, all bond lifecycle events like asset servicing, trading and redemption can happen more efficiently in a distributed manner. It could even make possible real-time tracking of the green impact. 16. In addition to traditional financial assets, the blockchain technology also allows fractionalisation of asset ownership in art, real estate or other assets, creating new forms of financial intermediation. With radical open-mindedness, we can use technological innovations to make financial markets more complete and bring benefits for the real world. 17.

And to help us navigate this long, winding and foggy road, we should take a pause and look back, and ask ourselves what we did well, what we could have done better, and how to do things better in the future. 10. Today I would like to take this opportunity to share three reflections with you. I won’t pretend that these are in any way definitive. But these, I believe, are the key takeaways from our experience so far. Radical Open-Mindedness 11. The first reflection is the need for radical open-mindedness, a term that I borrow from Ray Dalio, who used it to describe idea generation in investments. I would say this is even more applicable to fintech innovation – we need to be radically open to new ideas and try things that could make the financial system better. 12. When we brainstorm ideas for new fintech projects, we usually won’t know where they will lead us. The only sure thing is that if you don’t try, you never get anywhere. The key is to learn from failure and move on. This mindset has gotten us the hugely popular FPS, eight virtual banks and a vastly more advanced data-sharing infrastructure in our financial system. 13. In the beginning we were sometimes a bit resistant, wondering how new creatures like crypto, stablecoins, DeFi and other blockchain-based innovations can fit into “mainstream finance”.
The rise of the educated middle class in Asia-9  2  BIS Review 7/2006  has grown considerably. This affluent middle class has an appetite for consumption that can help sustain growth in the region well into the next decade. MasterCard International recently did a study which tracks consumer trends in Asia and defines the middle class as those earning more than five thousand US Dollars per year. According to this study, when a person’s income reaches this level, consumption moves very quickly from basic to discretionary spending – that is to fuel holidays abroad, eating out, and visiting shopping malls – which is a powerful driver of domestic demand within the region. This same study estimates that this middle class will almost double by 2010, signaling the arrival of the Asian consumer as a key driver of growth in the region. Third, an important reason for these successful relationships has to no small extent been driven by the cultural and ethnic ties within East Asia. These ties, which came about because of historical, geographical and cultural proximity, may vary greatly from country to country, but have no doubt played a part in lubricating the wheels of trade and investment in the East Asian region. Going forward, domestic demand in the region will continue to grow and further support growth in intra-regional trade. The lowering of tariffs in most Asia-9 economies and bilateral free-trade agreements have supported the development of the “pan-Asia” supply chain.

Minister, you have the floor! 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Of course, the ancient Romans did not have a god for the Internet, but perhaps Mercury – the god of commerce and communications – comes closest. The future of Juno, Plutus, and Mercury is increasingly becoming entwined, in large part due to technology. Let’s check out what Juno, Plutus, and Mercury have been up to lately. JUNO AND INNOVATIONS IN MONEY Juno has been busy in the past decade with new forms of money emerging. But before we can make sense of new money, let us refresh our understanding of existing money. Today, we keep money in two forms: physical cash in the form of notes and coins; and digital money in the form of deposits with commercial banks. Most of our money is privately created by commercial banks and is in digital form. Bank deposits account for 92% of the money supply in Singapore and are the basis for all electronic payments by households and firms, using debit and credit cards, e-wallets, and account-toaccount bank transfers. The commercial banks in turn place reserves with the central bank to settle inter-bank transactions arising from these electronic payments. Confidence in money is anchored by the central bank. Central banks conduct monetary policy to ensure low and stable inflation, which safeguards the purchasing power of our money. In addition, by regulating commercial banks and acting as lenders of last resort during crisis periods, central banks underpin the overall soundness of the banking system.

Investors in these tokens are at risk of suffering significant losses. But MAS is also of the view thatblockchains and crypto tokens can bring many potential benefits. The blockchain is suited for applications where it is important to know the history of ownership and transfer of value but there is no trusted central party or reliance on a central party is too costly. A potentially strong use case of crypto tokens is to facilitate cheaper and faster cross-border payments and trade finance. But to be regarded as money, crypto tokens need to be more stable in value and have credible backing. Hence, the emergence of stablecoins. Stablecoins Stablecoins seek to combine the credibility of fiat currencies with the advantages of the blockchain. The more prevalent stablecoins are pegged to the US Dollar, promise to redeem at par, and claim to be backed by reserves. Will Juno accept stablecoins as money? An encouraging sign is that stablecoins are beginning to find acceptance outside of the crypto ecosystem. Some technology firms have integrated popular stablecoins into their payment services. Visa and Mastercard both allow transactions to be settled using USD Coin. Or are stablecoins more akin to the Chimaera, a monstrous fire-breathing hybrid creature in Greek mythology? Stablecoin issuers look like banks when they take money and offer to return it on demand, but if they do not intermediate credit, would bank regulation be appropriate for them?
My reluctance to go down that route stems from a concern that we would slip towards a degree of individualism where members were no longer listening to each other. It would not be possible for members to polish their statements after the meeting, as they would then be able to tweak their text, ever so slightly of course, in the light of the market reaction to our decision and so on. So highly polished statements would be brought to the meeting, with perhaps even a degree of competition in the depth of the analysis or the beauty of the prose. But the very point of a committee is that we 26 should listen to each other, and then make up our own minds. That includes trying to persuade one’s  unexpired parts of the terms of existing Committee members, but do not include the terms of Howard Davies and David Walton. 25  For example, Weber, A., 2007, “Monetary policy strategy and communication”, speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank/Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland conference on “Monetary policy strategy: old issues and new challenges”, Frankfurt, May 2007. 26  See section on “Does discussion help?” in Lombardelli, Proudman and Talbot, op. cit., page 199. 6  BIS Review 66/2007  colleagues. Over the years, 27 I have definitely seen occasions where individual members have altered their position during the course of a meeting.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Role of central banks in emerging economies Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Svein Gjedrem Colloquium, Oslo, 18 November 2010. *  *  *  Introduction Central banks continue to be challenged with changing demands as the environment before us is rapidly being transformed. These fundamental and pronounced changes have prompted calls for a review of the role of central banks in the financial system and in the economy. Frequently, such calls have been precipitated during a financial crisis, as was the case during the Asian financial crisis and more recently during this current global financial crisis. However, such institutional reforms undertaken in periods of exceptional conditions risks influencing the nature and direction of the reforms. While the reforms following a crisis may address the immediate term demands, of equal importance is the medium and the longer term implications of the reforms. Perhaps, an important lesson for central banks is that such reinvention and modernisation should be undertaken during the good times so that we will not be subjected to such changes during the worst of times. In essence, in such a dynamic environment, central banks need to continue to adjust and evolve to remain relevant and, thus, useful. It is my great honour to be invited to speak at the Norges Bank Colloquium held in honour of Governor Svein Gjedrem.
This was sometimes a rather time-consuming process but in the end the results were probably better than if there had been a quick “fire-sale” of the assets. It is my opinion that the use of AMCs is superior to having the bad assets remain in the problem banks. The bank staffs are no experts in the field of handling bad assets and may not obtain the best sales values. Also, the bank management needs to tackle other problems and to work hard on future strategic planning for the bank – they do not have time enough for the often very large number of complex decisions to be taken on the bad assets. 5. Conclusions Finally, can we draw any conclusions for Asia in general and Korea in particular from the way the financial crisis was handled in Sweden? BIS Review 65/1998  -6-  First, I think it is important, as I said before, to recognise the importance of macroeconomic developments. Once the fixed exchange rate had been abandoned, Sweden’s economy experienced an export-driven upturn. But it did take a long time for confidence in the Swedish economy in general to return - at least another two years. It is noteworthy that this was so despite the fact that the recovery in growth had started in the summer of 1993.

The Bank Support Authority hired experts on valuation of various types of assets to ensure that the banks did not over- or underestimate the value of their assets with the aim to motivate requirements for more support. In addition, the rules on when to identify a loan as a non-performing loan and how much to write-off were made stricter and with less room for the banks’ own judgement. 5. The Swedish government did not take any specific measures to rescue or reconstruct the non-financial companies, neither did it instruct the banks on how to use the support they had received. All support was provided via the banks and the state-owned asset management corporations, leaving them to negotiate the best terms for themselves and their non-financial customers. There was a wave of bankruptcies and restructuring of non-financial companies, primarily in the domestic sector due to weak domestic demand. 6. The extensive use of Asset Management Corporations (AMCs) in Sweden has become well known abroad. AMCs had, in fact, been established in other countries before the Swedish crisis, so this was nothing new. The special feature in our case is the emphasis on splitting an ailing bank into a good bank and a “bad part” and transferring the bad assets to the AMC at carefully assessed market values. Once in the AMC, the assets are regrouped and improved in order to become attractive to potential buyers. As soon as a reasonable price can be obtained, the asset was sold.
Svante Öberg: The Riksbank and the Swedish economy Speech by Mr Svante Öberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting of SIMRA, the Swedish Society of Business Analysts, Stockholm, 5 October 2006. *  *  *  I would first like to thank you for the invitation to this lunch meeting. Today I intend to speak about monetary policy and wage formation. This is a very topical subject, particularly given that most of the collective wage agreements in the labour market are due to be renegotiated next year and that wage formation has such significance for developments in inflation and the stability of the Swedish economy. Wage formation has functioned much better over the past 10-15 years than it did during the 1970s and 1980s and it is essential that this good development can continue. I will divide my speech into five parts: First a section on how monetary policy is conducted, followed by a section containing a long-term perspective on economic developments, and then a section on how wage formation has changed, a section on the conditions for wage bargaining and finally I will conclude with a summary. Allow me to begin by describing how we work at the Riksbank. How monetary policy is conducted In Sweden we now conduct monetary and exchange rate policy based on inflation targeting and a floating exchange rate. This is different from the decades up to autumn 1992 when we had a fixed exchange rate as target.

It is, of course, two distinct processes – one for the UK to recognise the EU as equivalent to the UK, and one for vice versa. The UK has granted equivalence to the EU in some areas, but the EU has not done likewise to the UK. In a few areas – involving central clearing and settlement – there has been agreement by the EU to extend temporary equivalence to the UK, recognising, I think, the clear risks to financial stability that would have arisen had this not been done at the outset. It would be reasonable to think that a common framework of global standards combined with the common basis of the rules – since the UK transposed EU rules from the outset – would be enough to base equivalence on global standards. Less than this was enough when Canada, the US, Australia, Hong Kong and Brazil were all deemed equivalent. Continuing with the example of central clearing, the EU has recently made the US SEC equivalent for CCPs, subject to certain conditions. These conditions are already met by UK CCPs as they are a legal requirement in the onshored legislation, but equivalence beyond the temporary extension remains uncertain. The EU has argued it must better understand how the UK intends to amend or alter the rules going forwards. This is a standard that the EU holds no other country to and would, I suspect, not agree to be held to itself.