samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Some of the adjustments might be a reflection of the unsustainable pre-crisis imbalances, some of them are cyclical, and some might be a result of structural shifts that boost competiveness, enable export to grow and narrow the gaps. Latest available results from the IMF external sector assessment points to a general conclusion that the region’s current account balances are broadly in line with fundamentals (five out of eleven counties have current account in line with fundamentals, four have stronger position, while three 15  show weaker position than what the fundamentals suggest). The vulnerabilities are more visible, when financial and NIIPs are observed, with several countries having moderately weaker positions that indicates necessity for further policy changes, or bold structural reforms to improve the productivity and correct for the imbalances on the external front. Looking into the future, given  the uncertain global environment and the rising trade tensions, external flows and stock imbalances could widen again, although this would depend on the assumed policy responses in different countries. Further disruptions to trade and supply chains are one of the major risks that can affect the external imbalances. Higher tariffs on bilateral trade can come at significant economic cost, not only for the countries involved. These effects are greatly amplified by global supply chains, which transmit spillovers from bilateral tariffs, affecting countries up and down the value chain. Thus now more than ever there is an urgent need for policies that reduce external vulnerabilities, and prevent adverse spillovers. Bibliography  1.

9, 10 Growth has certainly been high over the last 12 months, so isn’t this a reason for tightening monetary policy? Here it is important to remember that monetary policy does not aim to stabilise growth. It aims to stabilise inflation and resource utilisation. The impact of increased growth on monetary policy depends on the impact of this growth on the forecasts for inflation and resource utilisation. Whether high growth indicates higher or lower resource utilisation depends on the reasons for the higher growth. In this respect there is no difference between growth and other indicators of the state of the economy. The extent to which they affect monetary policy depends solely on how they affect the forecasts for inflation and resource utilisation. If monetary policy is well-balanced in the initial position – a strong assumption – and growth shifts both the inflation forecast and the resource-utilisation forecast upwards, then increased growth is a reason for tightening monetary policy. However, if monetary policy is not well-  6  See for example Dagens Industri (2011), Eklund and Svensson (2010), Financial Times (2011a, b) and Frisén (2010). 7  See Svensson (2005) and Svensson and Tetlow (2005). 8  One possible exception may be if the repo-rate path were to pose a threat to financial stability and there were no other means that could be used to tackle the problem. See the discussion in Svensson (2010b, c). 9  See Giavazzi and Mishkin (2006) and Mishkin (2010).
It will be exciting to follow developments. Evolution will follow its inexorable course. However, cash will survive, like the crocodile, even though it may be forced to see its habitat gradually cut back. 3  Press release from the Swedish Bankers’ Association, 24 March 2010. 4  Squareup.com  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5

The key distinction is that, whereas the speculator takes a view based on the price which he observes in the market and acts upon it, the manipulator uses his resources and the advantage of a dominant market position to try to influence the price - in other words, he is a potential price setter rather than a price taker. Particularly in small markets where relatively small deals may be able to move prices significantly, we need to be alert to this potential problem, which may, if unattended, seriously undermine one's vision of competitive, efficient markets. Information The prices at which derivatives trade contain information which may usefully supplement other market data available to central banks as a means of monitoring expectations and sentiment. Let me give just two examples. First, in the foreign exchange market, whereas the forward rate may provide a point estimate of the expected future rate, data on option prices for different strike prices can provide a probability distribution for the future rate. This additional information, available only as a byproduct of derivatives trading, may be of interest to market analysts, including the monetary authorities. Within the HKMA we have conducted some research into this, which we are in the process of discussing with academics and other technicians. Second, with exchange traded products, where levels of activity are clearly visible, sudden surges or collapses in turnover may hint at shifts in sentiment for one reason or another.
Legal systems and competitiveness of financial centres  Fundamentally, the legal system should ensure that contract and property rights are sufficiently clear and predictable; if there is a dispute, participants in the contract do not feel  1  I wish to thank L. Stracca, M. Svoboda, S. Kerjean, F. Recine and C. Zilioli for their contribution. 2  Mishkin (2005). 3  Precisely through its negative impact on the quality of institutions and law enforcement. BIS Review 122/2007  1  the need to take legal action unless as a last resort. Moreover, if there is litigation, the court is independent and able to resolve the claim effectively and in a reasonable time. Furthermore, the judgment, once delivered, has to be quickly enforced. To underline the importance of this aspect let me give the example my own country. There is a growing literature suggesting that one of the reasons for the relatively slow pace of financial development in Italy is the slowness of the civil courts, with the result that, for example, mortgage debt is still a fraction of what it is typically in other advanced countries. 4 At this point it should be clear that an efficient legal system is a key ingredient of competitiveness among financial centres. One of the reasons of the traditional lead of US financial markets over Europe (and the rest of the world) is greater standardisation of legal norms and systems, while the European financial system is still characterised by considerable fragmentation of legislation, regulation and enforcement.

8  In two opinions concerning draft laws on securitisation in Luxembourg and France, the ECB indicated that it stressed that, looking beyond the Commission’s Financial Services Action Plan, it saw merit in a strategy of increased harmonisation in the area of securitisation at the EU level (See in this respect ECB Opinion  BIS Review 122/2007  3  In the context of the current financial turbulence, another issue which is often mentioned is the methodologies followed by rating agencies in the field of structured finance and the need to benefit from legal opinions assessing in an appropriate manner the legal risks related to the securitisation deal’s core components and identifying properly the rights of investors. At this point, let me not abuse of your time any longer. I hope that I have effectively conveyed the message that we, as policy-makers, care that the global financial system is put on a solid legal footing. I wish you all the best for this conference in contributing to this endeavour. Thank you for your attention. CON/2004/30 of 14 September 2004 at the request of the French Ministry of Economic Affairs, Finance and Industry on a draft decree concerning fonds communs de créances (securitisation funds) and ECB Opinion CON/2004/3 of 4 February 2004 at the request of the Ministry of Finance of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg on a draft law on securitisation). 4  BIS Review 122/2007
At present, and despite nearly three years of steady price deflation, this does not appear to be happening. Indeed, the experience last year of robust growth and moderate price decline underlines the point that price deflation and economic expansion are quite compatible under a linked exchange rate system. I have tried to place these complaints about the Link in a larger perspective. That is not to deny that the complaints have some validity. The Link does have shortcomings. It does impose restrictions. We should all have the courage to speak of and accept them, while not overlooking the advantages of the system. And there are two clear and simple advantages of overriding importance for Hong Kong. A stable exchange rate provides a predictable and conducive business environment for an economy that imports practically everything that it consumes, processes or re-exports. And, for a financial centre with strong international capital flows but no capital controls, linking our currency to a strong international currency provides stability and strength. Although not perfect, the Link has served Hong Kong well, and there is no better and less risky alternative. There is no intention or plan to change or abandon it. Given the renewed interest in the subject, and for the sceptics who remain, let me go the extra mile here for their benefit. Let me tackle the question of what would happen if Hong Kong were to depeg. Within the HKMA we think of this a great deal. This is not because we expect or intend it to happen.

On this subject of the “Eckert Act", the insurance companies monitored by the ACPR paid out EUR 2 billion to the beneficiaries of unclaimed policies in 2015; banks, for their part, transferred 5.5 million inactive bank accounts to the Caisse des dépôts et consignations in 2016, representing a total amount of EUR 1.9 billion to be claimed by the account holders or their beneficiaries. The fourth challenge is the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism, which in 2016 was a higher priority for action. We carried out 30 missions among banks and insurance companies on this subject in 2016, as against 22 in 2015. These missions complement the substantive action of the ongoing supervision, which resulted last year in close to 700 follow-up letters. In total, we initiated and published six disciplinary sanctions against institutions. The year 2016 was therefore an active year in this field, raising to 22 the number of sanctions taken since 2010 for noncompliance with the regulations. * * * In conclusion, it is with pride that I look at what was achieved in 2016, but without any let-up or complacency: many projects await us in 2017, both nationally and internationally. A strong ACPR must have the necessary means to accomplish its missions: I would like to emphasise this imperative. I will now give the floor to Bernard Delas, who will present the prudential developments in the insurance sector. Rémi Bouchez will then discuss the work of the Sanctions Committee. Thank you for your attention.
China, India and other emerging economies will continue to grow strongly and to account for an increasing share of the world economy. The international competition in the product and labour markets and the international financial integration process will thus continue to increase during the foreseeable future. The deregulation of several markets during the 1990s has probably largely already made its impact on productivity. I interpret the SNS report published at the beginning of the year to say that the most likely development is that this factor will contribute less to the rate of increase in productivity during coming years. 7 At the same time, there is still relatively large scope for continued reforms in this field. A survey indicates that around 32 per cent of consumption was exposed to competition at the turn of the millennium. This figure for Sweden can be compared with the figure for the EU of around 45 per cent. 8 A similar picture is shown in a report by the Swedish Competition Authority. 9 This states that around half of the higher prices compared with the OECD arise from a lack of competition in Sweden. IT will probably fuel productivity for a long time. It takes time for companies to adjust to the new circumstances. This can be illustrated by means of a historical comparison. IT is just like electricity a technique for general use. The advent of electricity had no noticeable effect on productivity until companies literally rebuilt their factories.

In alphabetical order, the magnificent seven are: Bank of China (Hong Kong), DBS Bank (Hong Kong), Bank of East Asia, Hang Seng Bank, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, Standard Chartered Bank, and Wing Lung Bank. I thank them sincerely for their participation as Retail Exchange Fund Notes Distributors. BIS Review 31/2005  1  Access for retail investors to the primary market of debt, not necessarily restricted to Exchange Fund Notes, is, of course, only part of our continuing efforts. To increase and sustain retail investor interest in bond products in general, we need also to provide convenient access to the secondary market at low transaction costs and reliable market information. But this is a subject for another occasion, after ideas, just recently discussed and endorsed by the new Financial Infrastructure Sub-Committee of the Exchange Fund Advisory Committee, mature and arrangements put in place, in collaboration with the industry. Allow me to conclude with a commercial targeted at retail investors. The Exchange Fund Notes are a very safe investment – you are putting your money with the Exchange Fund, which is managed by the HKMA. The Exchange Fund Notes provide you with a steady stream of fixed-interest income that is higher than interest on bank deposits. The Exchange Fund Notes are highly liquid – you can sell them any time you want. There are 26 market-makers appointed by the HKMA to make a market in Exchange Fund paper.
This points to a high degree of flexibility about pay and conditions of employment in the short-term. But the likely “quid pro quo” of this approach is that, when company fortunes improve, employees will expect to share in the benefits of the upswing to compensate for sacrifices made in the downturn. For this reason, I would expect private sector wage growth to pick up now that the economy is recovering, returning quite quickly to the rates we saw before the recession. Employment has also been sustained by the long-term confidence of management in the viability and future success of their businesses. In past recessions, when this longer-term confidence was much weaker, employment has fallen more sharply. For example, in the early 1980s, UK manufacturing companies entered the recession facing many problems of low productivity, poor industrial relations and an unstable macroeconomic environment, with high cost and price inflation. It was therefore not surprising that the early-80s recession was the last straw which saw many UK manufacturers closing down operations and international businesses shifting their production bases elsewhere. In the recent downturn, the bulk of UK businesses have felt more confident about their longer term prospects and have sought to retain their resources of skilled labour and experienced workers so they would be well placed to benefit from the upswing when it came. That attitude and approach is in my view a positive signal for our future prosperity and business success.

Though the latest Budget and OSR plans imply a somewhat bigger fall in the public spending share of GDP than in the mid-1990s, this is offset by a smaller rise in the tax burden. Taking tax and spending together, the projected impact is broadly similar. Public borrowing fell by over 8 percentage points of GDP between 1993/4 and 1998/9, compared with a 9 percentage point fall projected over the next five years in the coalition government 2010 Budget. 10 It is also important to recognise the profile for total public spending conceals significant variations between different areas of spending. But the overall total is not being cut back as dramatically as some of the media headlines suggest. The broadest measure of public spending – Total Managed Expenditure – is still set to rise in cash terms at 1.5% per annum over the four years to 2014/15, not far below the targeted inflation rate of 2%. The profile for real spending in future years is not dissimilar to the mid-1990s when there was also a virtual standstill in the real growth of spending. In the 1990s, the public spending squeeze was also accompanied by a significant reduction in employment in the public sector, not dissimilar to the figures currently projected by the Office of Budget Responsibility. Despite this, unemployment fell in the 1990s from over 10% of the labour force to around 5% later in the decade because the private sector generated many more jobs than were lost in the public sector.
Ingimundur Friðriksson: The banking crisis in Iceland in 2008 Paper by Mr Ingimundur Friðriksson, Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland, prepared for a seminar which was scheduled to be held at the Bank of Finland, 6 February 2009. The author was unable to attend. * * * Iceland has been hit extraordinarily hard by the financial crisis that has swept across the globe. The rapid growth of the country’s financial system in the past few years rendered it much more vulnerable to global developments than it would otherwise have been. In my talk today, I would like to trace in broad terms various aspects of the runup to the Icelandic banking crisis, particularly from the point of view of the Central Bank. It will not be a complete picture. After Iceland’s banks were fully privatised early this century, they began expanding at a rapid pace, with the primary focus of that growth outside Iceland. They acquired financial companies in other countries, opened branches, and expanded their international business from their headquarters in Reykjavík. This rapid growth was facilitated by Iceland’s membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) through which the country had created for its financial system a regulatory framework that was rooted in the directives adopted by the European Union. Among other things, this meant that operating licences granted to Icelandic financial companies extended not only to Iceland but to all other EEA states. For example, they were permitted to operate branches anywhere in the EEA.

They took advantage of a liberal regulatory environment, good credit ratings, and the unusually advantageous conditions on the global markets and expanded their operations at a rapid pace. The European regulatory framework made this possible. In many ways their activities resembled those of banks in other countries. Under normal market conditions, this posed no immediate problem. The banks could have funded their operations even under sub-optimal market conditions. Many were of the opinion that the Central Bank should build up very large foreign exchange reserves, even up to a multiple of GDP, in order to back up the financial system. Given the current account deficit on the balance of payments, this would only have been possible with massive foreign borrowing. It would never have transpired, for the simple reason that the Icelandic government would have been unable to borrow such a large amount. Its credit ratings would not have tolerated it, and lenders would have been difficult to find. As I have touched on, the banks responded to mounting difficulties in various ways. Kaupthing, for example, abandoned its plans to acquire the Dutch bank NIBC. All of the  6  BIS Review 22/2009  banks sold assets and discontinued various non-core operations; however, as the IMF mentioned in the previously cited Staff Report, it was not a seller’s market. In addition, the banks all reduced their lending and laid off staff.
Speaking from Thailand's own experiences and limitations, we realize that both planned and unforeseen challenges will mark our path towards eventual compliance. As such, we have taken some initial steps to check the readiness of financial institutions to conform to the credit risk guidelines under the New Capital Accord. A full impact analysis will be conducted next year. Going some way to prepare for the more sophisticated methodology embodied in the New Capital Accord's treatment of credit and operational risk, we are requiring, as a first step in the same spirit, that financial institutions calculate market risk capital charge in 2002. Actual capital requirement will be made, tentatively, in 2003. Although the complexity of credit risk and internal rating approach will add new difficulties even after market risk is mastered, we believe this step will serve to focus the attention of top management of financial institutions and supervisors, ensuring they will stay alert to other complexities that follow. In this connection, we would like to take this opportunity to thank Mr. Roland Raskopf and Mr. Jason George, who last October were kind enough to give Thailand's banking community excellent, and much appreciated, presentations on market risk, after which we received many calls from awakened private bankers for advice on how to plan the adoption in their banks. I should also like to take this opportunity to express our appreciation to Mr. George, who spent three years at the Bank of Thailand as consultant to help us build up our supervisory capacity.

Once the system is up and running, supervisory coordination in terms of exchange of information, say  BIS Review 102/2001  1  on risk model validation, will also be crucial. For this reason, seminars such as this also serve to build useful networks. Ladies and Gentlemen, Let me turn now towards the second topic at hand, the issues surrounding new technological development, that is, E-Banking. Indeed the key driver of the financial landscape in the past decade has been technology. Innovations, both in finance and IT, have changed the boundaries of financial institutions' businesses, spurred vertical as well as horizontal integration in financial industry and related industries, increasing the numbers of mergers and acquisitions, and in turn, revolutionized the regulatory boundary conceptually and geographically. In short, the definition of what is a financial institution is being challenged. Advancements in technology have ramifications for real applications in many Thai businesses, and the banking industry is no exception. Changes in consumer lifestyle are amongst major factors pushing financial institutions to implement technology-based services that will deliver traditional transactions in a more timely and convenient manner. Such a trend is evidenced by the fact that many Thai banks have invested a significant amount of resources modifying their technology systems to support new on-line services and to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness of their operations.