samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
By contrast, Romania pursues both a floating exchange rate and a direct inflation targeting strategy, the same as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic and, therefore, the approach is different, the changeover to the euro being more complex in this context. This is by no means to say that Romania is sceptical about euro adoption, but merely that it needs a comprehensive view, meant to ensure an adequate timing of this moment and a successful entry into the euro area. While we are on the subject, it cannot be overlooked either that the New Member States having adopted the euro – Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia – are relatively small countries, with a different level of real convergence. Referring to countries that are currently in the process of adopting the euro, I myself am among those who stress the need for sustainable convergence, being aware that, in order to reap the benefits of euro area accession, several essential prerequisites have to be cumulatively met. The fact that nominal convergence criteria need to be fulfilled in a lasting – not accidental, forced or temporary – manner is just one aspect. Actually, the durability of convergence has been set forth in the Maastricht Treaty itself (“high degree of sustainable convergence” is the exact wording), but this “detail” has been taken too lightly for a while. Moreover, now it is obvious for everybody that real convergence is also essential for the sustainability of the entire process of euro adoption.

Mugur Isărescu: Convergence towards euro enlargement Opening speech by Mr Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the Conference "The Danube Triangle", Bucharest, 25 October 2018. * * * Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, Allow me to welcome you to the National Bank of Romania. It is the seventh time that the National Bank of Romania hosts an ELEC Conference. It started in 2011 with “Renewable energy and transport infrastructure in the Black Sea Region”, a year later we talked about “Eastern Europe and the EMU: finding the optimal path for introducing the euro“. In 2013 there was the 3rd edition of the Danube Financing Dialogue. The following year the dialogue focused on “Agriculture and environmental protection in Central and Eastern Europe and their contribution to growth and employment“. In 2016 we discussed on “How the EU can generate a virtuous circle in the Black Sea Region – the case of food and energy security” and last year we debated on “the challenges for Eastern Europe in the present turmoil in the EU and EMU – persevering in the reforms and investing for the future”. As one could notice, the topics previously discussed during all ELEC Conferences have most certainly cast a new light on possible ways to handle the challenges ahead of us. The European League for Economic Cooperation has stood out, ever since its foundation in 1946, as an independent network of business people who put their knowledge and influence together to extend European integration.
In these circumstances, had we allowed the exchange rate to adjust to market pressures within the 15 per cent band, the currency would have appreciated. 5. You seem to be playing down the efficacy of the fiscal deficit and of exchange rate adjustment as a means of jump starting the economy. What would you suggest instead? As I have already pointed out, the domestic factors which are contributing to the economy’s anaemic growth record are largely microeconomic in nature. I have also explained why deficit financing and changes in the nominal exchange rate cannot correct these weaknesses, still less produce sustainable growth. Policy orientation must eschew short-term palliatives. Like our competitors we must learn to come to terms with globalization. Reflecting on one simple fact should help in understanding what this means: the hourly cost of labour of an electronics operative in Malta is around $ compared with $ in Singapore and $ in China. Neither more government spending nor a devaluation can narrow that gap. Against this background, maintaining external competitiveness in the long run depends on continued moderation in wage growth, faster increases in labour productivity and sustainable budget positions. I make no claim to originality in proposing this prescription; it is shared by the EU Commission, the ECB and the IMF. I shall first address the last objective. Given that taxation levels are already high, fiscal consolidation should be achieved by cutting recurrent spending.

In the area of foreign exchange, there would no longer be a need to provide marketmaking facilities once the euro becomes our domestic currency, or to retain the current foreign exchange facilities offered to government at their existing level. Our reserve management role, however, would remain; not only to manage our own reserves, but also to manage part of the ECB’s portfolio. Likewise, the Bank would retain its function as issuer of notes and coins and would thus have to meet the local demand for euro. It would also need to analyse suspected counterfeit euro notes and coins. Particularly important will be the Bank’s role in providing a channel for both domestic and cross border, high value payments by linking our payment system with the Eurosystem’s TARGET, as well as in operating a mechanism for the cross border delivery of assets for collateralisation purposes. The adoption of the euro will also integrate further Malta’s financial system with that of the euro area, so that the Bank’s financial stability and internal audit responsibilities will assume a cross border dimension because weaknesses in any one Member State could impact directly on the stability of the entire system. For example, we will have to cooperate closely with other central banks and the ECB to prevent the emergence of systemic crises. This will involve strengthening our institutional and analytical capacities to detect potential vulnerabilities in our own financial system.
The Bank of Estonia has been at or close to the frontier of this revolution. Today it provides a rich daily diet of reports, forecasts, working papers, speeches and tweets. th  The 20 century may yet be seen by historians as a Golden Age for central banks. Central bank numbers rose from under 20 at the start of the century to over 175 by its close. Those with operational independence for monetary policy rose from fewer than 40 in 1971 to over 150 today. And the numbers of central banks 7  with responsibilities for regulatory policy has risen sharply too, especially since the crisis. 5 6 7  Barro and Gordon (1983). For example, Nelson (2005). Haldane (2017a). 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  th  The rise in central bank numbers in part reflects the greater numbers of nation states in the 20 century. But this, too, is revealing. Establishing a central bank has increasingly been seen as an essential building block of nation state-building, a crucial element in the fabric of democratic statecraft. Indeed, that was precisely the Estonian experience, as events in this very room a century ago testify. The Age of Innocence  This Golden Age of central banking has persisted for a century. As best we can tell, it has served economies and societies well. Prior to the crisis, the global economy entered a golden period of its own with steady 8  growth and stable inflation, known as the “Great Moderation”.

A century ago, depositors could lose confidence in the banks and rush to withdraw their savings. However, deposits stabilised when guarantee schemes were established in the 1930s. Loans to households make up a third of banks’ assets. Residential mortgage loans are longterm loans. At the same time, funding for Norwegian banks has changed. Market funding has assumed a more important role. In recent years, both short-term market funding and funding  BIS Review 8/2010  1  in foreign currency have grown in Norwegian banks. Banks have increasingly transformed short-term deposits from international money markets into long-term domestic lending. This is the main reason for the strain on liquidity experienced by Norwegian banks when foreign funding came to a halt in 2008. For Norwegian banks, the financial crisis has primarily been a liquidity crisis and not a solvency crisis. The authorities all over the world are currently reviewing the regulation of banks’ liquidity. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision presented recommendations on quantitative liquidity requirements in December 2009. The UK, Switzerland and New Zealand have introduced, or are in the process of introducing, stricter rules. Norwegian banks must also expect the regulation of liquidity to be more stringent in the future. It will be more difficult to base housing finance on short-term funding. Issuing covered bonds may be an alternative.
The government bill also states that the Riksbank, without prejudice to the objective of price stability, should also support the objectives of general economic policy with the aim to achieve sustainable growth and high employment. The general economic policy that the Riksbank should support is very much a policy for full employment. According to the 2012 Spring Fiscal Policy Bill, the most important objective for the present government’s economic policy is full employment. 2 Full employment has also been an important objective for previous governments. High employment is the same as the highest sustainable rate of employment. The Riksbank therefore writes at the beginning of every Monetary Policy Report that it strives to stabilise employment around a path that is sustainable in the long run. The Riksbank therefore conducts what is generally referred to as flexible inflation targeting. If one follows this line of reasoning, then the Riksbank’s mandate for monetary policy is price stability and the highest sustainable rate of employment. It may be interesting to note in this context that the Riksbank has in principle the same mandate as the Federal Reserve. According to the Federal Reserve Act, the US central bank should “promote effectively the goals of maximum employment and stable prices”. In this case too, maximum employment means maximum sustainable employment. It is sometimes claimed that the Riksbank’s mandate is a so-called hierarchical mandate, while the Federal Reserve’s mandate is a so-called dual mandate.

For the international community, these policies provide a clear signal on the country's seriousness about 2050, despite contributing only 0.7% of global GHG emissions. Along the transition journey, there are risks to manage, and opportunities to be seized. Technology is key. So is finance. Your actions and responses are critical. The partnership between you and your clients is critical. Your clients would need the "How" in terms of new forms of financial instruments – transition finance, adaptation finance and blended finance to name a few. For the SMEs, this goes beyond financing. For instance, they need the "How" in terms of where and how to begin greening their operations, tools to help them understand, measure and track their own emissions profiles. I am delighted and encouraged to see the Malaysian ecosystem and accompanying tools continue to mature. The progress thus far is commendable. But, we must not forget the long road ahead and work still to be done to achieve 2050 in an orderly and just manner. The Bank's experience in engaging with multiple stakeholders offers some insights as to the additional elements needed to further propel our transition. Allow me to share these insights to CAP off our discourse today – that is C for Communication, A for Alignment, and P for Proactivity. 1/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Communication. The economy's transition doesn't just happen in high powered boardrooms and government offices. It happens in the everyday decisions made by households and small business owners.
The MPC generally agrees on the overall economic outlook and areas of challenges, although views about the balance of risks and the appropriate policy response can differ. My discussion today should therefore be taken as a representation of my own view as an MPC member, and needs not reflect the opinions of all other voting members. Economic outlook Ladies and Gentlemen, Last year was in many ways a year of transition. The economy had to recover from the devastating floods that took a heavy toll in late 2011, and at the same time deal with the fragile global economy. Throughout the year, incoming economic data have nonetheless been a series of positive surprises. The recovery gradually gained traction and became increasingly self-sustaining. Production constraints eased and domestic demand was back on track, thanks to the economy’s sound underlying fundamentals. Meanwhile, monetary policy continued to be accommodative and supportive to growth. Fiscal spending through flood-relief and stimulus measures also played an important role in providing a boost to the economy. As a consequence, the Thai economy was able to sail through those strong headwinds, and grew robustly at 6.4 percent in 2012. Projecting forward, the outlook for this year continues to be positive, supported by domestic demand that should remain robust. The underlying economic fundamentals also continue to be favourable. The banking system is underpinned by solid capital base, prudent risk management practice, and strong risk-based supervision.

Indeed, estimates from both the International Monetary Fund and various investment banks suggest that the current value of Thai baht is consistent with the underlying fundamentals. To promote a deeper foreign exchange market and foster more balanced capital flows, the Bank of Thailand also launched a Capital Account Liberalization Master Plan, which entailed liberalization of Thai investment abroad and a streamline of foreign exchange regulations. There are also continuing efforts to enhance the private sectors’ adaptability and foreign exchange risk management. These initiatives should provide an extra layer of cushion to shield businesses against short-term market volatility. They are not, however, a substitute for structural improvement in productivity, which in the long run holds the key to success for the export industry. Given that the global environment is still subject to uncertainty, capital flows may continue to be volatile, and risks to financial stability warrant close monitoring, it is more important than ever that monetary policy strikes the right balance between providing support to sustain growth momentum while ensuring long-term financial stability. In the judgment of MPC, the current stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, with the real policy rate still in negative territory. As the balance of risks shifts between the need to support growth and the duty to safeguard financial and price stability, monetary policy stance will have to be adjusted accordingly. The Bank of Thailand stands ready to employ the right mix of policy tools under its purview to attain these goals.
Enlarged participation in the SSM is a great opportunity for setting a level playing field in supervisory practices across the EU. At the same time, a series of conceptual questions need to be addressed. For one, it is hard to imagine that countries not participating in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) might act as a financial safety net for troubled but solvent banks, in the event that a privately financed resolution fund is not yet adequately funded. The next steps The establishment of the SSM represents a great opportunity for financial integration in Europe. Let me now turn to the next steps in the establishment of the SSM. First, the swift adoption of the SSM Regulation is essential. Definite plans are crucial in order to uphold the current momentum of the stabilisation of the euro. The general expectation is  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  that the SSM will be established early this year, with an effective operational start 12 months later. Second, the design of a supervisory model, including the allocation of tasks between centre and periphery is critical for the success of the SSM. In this regard, work is already under way by the ECB in cooperation with national competent authorities – subject to the final legal wording. Third, the SSM will need to carry out a comprehensive review of the banks that fall under the direct supervision of the ECB.

Various actors in the economy may be relieved from pressures to take up their own responsibilities, thereby lowering the incentives to correct imbalances, unwind past excesses and redress the course of unsustainable economic and financial policies. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Second – and more fundamentally – non-standard monetary policy cannot solve the underlying structural economic and financial problems. The banking union – restoring financial stability and reintegrating financial markets The banking union aims at building an integrated financial framework to safeguard financial stability. To this end, it is absolutely imperative to have both an EU framework for single supervision, the SSM, as well as an integrated resolution framework, the SRM. Stability comes from having two pillars. The Single Supervisory Mechanism One particular institutional shortcoming of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) derives from the inconsistency between a single monetary policy and national supervisory competences. A step up of supervisory powers to the supranational level was therefore needed to reverse financial fragmentation, with a view to breaking the link between sovereigns and banks, restoring the principle of self-responsibility and avoid objectionable transfers. By centralising supervision, the SSM should ensure uniform practices across Europe and overcome the home-host cross-border supervisory discussions and the associated national bias. The establishment of a single supervisor marks a new epoch in the EU financial framework, which may be comparable to the creation of monetary union at the end of the last century.
In this respect, from the standpoint of income statements, credit institutions have limited room for manoeuvre. Nevertheless, they should avoid imposing indiscriminate rules on customers when they grant new loans; further, they should select borrowers more cautiously and appropriately differentiate the interest rates applied to each of them. Against this background of moderate lending growth and higher loan loss provisions, it does not seem that fees or gains on financial transactions can offset the pressure on the income statement. First, as I just mentioned, because it is unlikely that growth rates will be very high in this more sluggish economic environment in which financial market difficulties persist. And second, because, even if they are, given the weight of these items in income statements, they would be unlikely to act as offsetting mechanisms because of the sheer size of the pressures mentioned earlier. The most effective course of action, and that on which institutions' efforts should focus, is operating expenses. And homing in on operating expenses means not only limiting their growth, but should also lead to reducing those expenses which, because of their nature, are more variable. It is essential to exercise utmost care in taking on overheads, which are difficult to reverse. At a time like the present, it is preferable to have flexible cost structures which enable greater room for manoeuvre. The effort needed is formidable, and will undoubtedly require operating structures to be accommodated to the new competitive reality of the sector.

From a medium-term perspective, and even when conditions are established that will free up the flow of credit from the banking sector to the  4  BIS Review 52/2009  real economy, it cannot be expected that rates of expansion will rise again to the heights of recent years. The de-leveraging process underway in the banking sector, and in the economy in general, is not a passing fad, but rather a means of achieving lower and more sustainable debt positions. One way of making up for the lower rates of credit expansion, and thus countering the foreseeable narrowing of net interest margins, would be to diversify banking activity into new business segments. In principle, diversification is a positive thing, but it must be undertaken with caution. Experience shows that both in Spain and internationally, only on limited occasions can an institution's sound knowledge of its core business be directly transferred to activities that lie further afield. Accordingly, those in charge of institutions should show prudence and avoid what can be termed contrived diversification processes and carefully assess their entry into unfamiliar market segments in which they lack experience. Second, in the short term bad debts will keep rising and so the pressure on loan loss provisions will continue to be high. It is true that the reduction in interest rates will bring relief for households and firms and help to limit the impact of the rise in bad debts, but the contractionary phase of the cycle will foreseeably last some quarters.
MyInfo is a government digital service that enables Singapore residents to authorise thirdparties to access their personal data residing across different government agencies through APIs. This means that, with the consent of the customer, banks can use the MyInfo service for more efficient KYC using government-verified personal data. I can now open a bank account or obtain a credit card – online and instantly – when I give consent to my bank to access my data through MyInfo. 4 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  Customers do not need to go through the tedious process of filling up forms and providing hardcopy documents to banks for verification. And they certainly don’t need to go to the bank branch. Banks benefit from higher productivity and better risk management. Second, secure and seamless payments through PayNow. PayNow was jointly developed by MAS and the banking industry. It enables individuals and businesses to transfer funds using just the personal ID number or mobile phone number or unique entity number of their recipients. It operates 24-by-7 and funds can be transferred directly from one bank account to another in real-time. I can now send money to my friend in just three clicks on my smart phone – all I need to know is his mobile number. Business users of PayNow can generate a QR code containing their unique entity number.

But the second and potentially more powerful way in which technology is helping to drive down the cost of financial intermediation is through partnerships between financial institutions and FinTech firms. Soc-Gén is working with TagPay to provide mobile banking in Africa through a cloud-based platform that is compatible with any mobile phone. AXA is working with MicroEnsure to offer simple and affordable insurance products to customers across Asia and Africa. By helping to reduce customer acquisition costs, these collaborations have helped to serve a larger social purpose – enhancing financial inclusion and expanding opportunity. But there is a lot more we need to do. There are about 1.7 billion adults globally who are unbanked. In the ten ASEAN countries of Southeast Asia, half the adult population is unbanked. This is a shame. The ASEAN countries have a burgeoning middle class and increasingly modern infrastructure, yet so many do not have access to a bank account, secure and affordable payments, or insurance protection. Banks and insurers face high costs in reaching out to customers in remote areas. We need to take collaboration between financial institutions and FinTech firms to a much broader level – through platforms for innovation and inclusion. This is why the MAS, the ASEAN Bankers Association, and the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation have teamed up to establish the ASEAN Financial Innovation Network, or AFIN in short. AFIN aims to bring banks and FinTech firms from across the world to develop innovative solutions to penetrate hard-to-reach markets in a cost efficient way.