samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Over time, a strong krone and weak demand among major trading partner countries will probably have a dampening impact on activity in Norway. Little excess production capacity in OPEC countries, combined with the prospect of lower production in non-OPEC countries, has probably influenced oil prices. At the same time, there are prospects of continued strong demand growth in important oil-importing countries, such as China and some other emerging economies. More on the oil market The IMF has analysed supply and demand in the oil market for the period ahead in the latest issue of “World Economic Outlook”, published in April of this year. Assuming an annual global GDP growth of approximately 3 per cent and an oil price in line with market expectations in February 2005,1 demand for oil is expected to increase by around 2 per cent per year until 2030. Price expectations are higher now, but according to IMF calculations, the demand for oil in the long-term reacts relatively little to price changes. The growth in demand primarily reflects higher demand for fuel for motor vehicles, particularly in non-OECD countries. An increase in per capita income in China will in particular lead to a sharp increase in car use. Output in non-OPEC countries will peak in the not-too-distant future – in 5 years, according to IMF estimates. Higher demand will require higher output in OPEC countries. These countries have substantial oil resources but are currently producing close to capacity. Production capacity must therefore be increased.

Higher demand can thereby be met by non-OPEC oil producers operating at full capacity while OPEC passively satisfies any remaining demand by increasing its production capacity. Alternatively, OPEC can take a more active position and push up oil prices even further by restraining production. Not many years ago, it was normal to assume that the long-term price of oil was around USD 20 to USD 25 (in real value) per barrel. Analyses such as the one presented by the IMF suggest that the long-term oil price level may be considerably higher than this. 1  An average of USD 45 per barrel in 2005 and falling to USD 34 per barrel in 2010 and the years following. As a result of persistently high oil prices and expectations that oil prices will remain high, investment in the petroleum sector may reach record levels this year. The investment intentions survey for the petroleum sector points to very high growth. The level is expected to remain high throughout the projection period. Activity in the petroleum sector will have spillover effects on the mainland economy, initially on the shipbuilding industry and the building and construction sector. The scale of petroleum investment and its spillover effects are highly uncertain. The last time petroleum investment showed a sharp increase, in 1997/1998, growth was substantially stronger than had been assumed. At the same time, the rest of the Norwegian economy was experiencing an upturn. The unexpected increase in petroleum investment contributed to an economic upturn that was substantially stronger than projected.
In this context, a high enough level of real convergence (in addition to the compliance with the nominal convergence criteria) is needed when joining the euro area, to limit the costs associated with losing monetary policy independence. A high enough level does not mean that we are so ambitious as to aim for a convergence level of 90% of the Eurozone average or a level equal to that of Germany (as is the case with certain approaches put forward in Hungary or Poland). However, we need to achieve a real convergence level of at least 70–75 percent of the Eurozone average. Otherwise we would be insufficiently developed and, therefore, vulnerable to asymmetric shocks and unable to synchronise our business cycle with that of other euro area economies. However, we must take care that the level of convergence increases in a sustainable manner. We should be able to preserve the pace of this process, and once steps forward have been made, we may not stop or go backwards. Past achievements in nominal and real convergence, while significant, do not guarantee future success. To this end, allow me to bring up an old, but reliable principle. The Latin saying festina lente is perfectly suitable in this case: hurrying in a slow manner, if I can say so, on the convergence path means achieving a sustainable pace in the medium and long term. In other words, we need to be a marathoner, and not a sprinter.

Our commitment to join the euro area is indisputable, yet this process has to be managed in a very careful manner. 2. FINDING THE RIGHT BALANCE BETWEEN CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT During recent years, the contribution of investment to growth was smaller than it should have been, with consumption spending being the main driver of GDP dynamics. Welfare has increased markedly, but the concern for rendering these welfare gains sustainable should prompt a switch to policies aimed at fostering investment, thus boosting the productive potential of the economy. A short-term focus on economic policies and paying no heed to accumulating macroeconomic disequilibria ought to be avoided, as they eventually lead to suboptimal outcomes. The adequate approach is to ensure a rebalancing between consumption and investment, not by discouraging consumption, but by stimulating investment. This is also a way to reduce development gaps between Romania’s regions. Indeed, the EU accession acted as a catalyst for real convergence at country level, yet development imbalances in Romania did not decrease significantly. Romania currently has regions that are similar in terms of living standards and development levels to Western economies, while some other areas are considerably lagging behind: in 2017, the wealthiest region in Romania was almost four times richer than the poorest one (based on regional per capita GDP). Therefore, even though the EU membership has acted as a catalyst for country-level real convergence, the 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  development gaps across the regions of Romania have actually increased.
The fixed game rules in banking, the economy and policy arising from the fixed exchange rate and the currency board notably contributed to smothering excessive euphoria already prior to the global crisis. Third of all, the fixed exchange rate is the pillar of our financial system as well. As a result of all this, the vulnerabilities of the Estonian economy have decreased significantly. This will enable us to concentrate on measures supporting economic growth once the crisis is over. I would like to stress once again that in a small and open economy like Estonia, the fixed exchange rate based policy is the best way to ensure the stability of money for both enterprises and households. Confidence in our own money is one of the most important factors in defeating the crisis. Thus, joining the euro area will be a logical continuation to our current monetary policy and accelerate exiting the crisis. It is clear the adoption of the euro will offset the risks that have been overly amplified in the current market situation. Moreover, the changeover will reinforce the credibility of Estonia's financial system and the banks operating here. To sum up, Estonia's accession to the euro area is the country's short-term economic policy priority, which increases confidence in Estonia's economy. 4  BIS Review 89/2009  Like we have said before, Estonia has all the possibilities for meeting the Maastricht criteria already at the end of 2009.

According to the current outlooks, the economy should stabilise in the second half of this year and it may start growing again either at the end of 2009 or at the beginning of 2010. However, all forecasts continue to be insecure. If our main trading partners' growth recovered faster, it would also give impetus to Estonia's economic activity, whereas a protracted global economic downswing would put a drag on rekindling growth here. Recent days' messages from the world have been slightly more optimistic after several months of bad news. It is thought the large support packages have finally started to render results. This requires even more urgently that countries be ready to take stapes to ensure long-term growth potential. It has happened before in the world that economic crises have been defeated by creating assumptions for a new crisis. Thank you for your attention! BIS Review 89/2009  5
To illustrate the impact of this on investment choice, consider the earlier project with an annual income stream of $  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Chart 6 shows the present value of those income streams under three counter-factual assumptions: rational discounting; myopic discounting – lower bound (5%); and myopic discounting – upper bound (10%). The cumulative impact is fairly dramatic. Ten-year ahead cash-flows under rational discounting are valued similarly to between six-year (lower bound) and four-year (upper bound) ahead cash-flows under myopic discounting. The long is shortened. Chart 6  Chart 7  Present value of future cash-flows  Cumulative present value of future cash-flows  Notes: The chart assumes $ is paid at the end of each year. The rational discount rate used is 1.085. Notes: The cumulative NPV of $ cash-flows rises to $ in year 9 under rational discounting. With mild myopia (x=0.95) it only passes $ at year 15. With severe myopia (x=0.90) the investor calculates that payback is not achieved. Table 7 Point in future at which residual discounted cash-flow falls below (years) 10%  1%  0.1  Rational (x =1)  29  57  85  Mild myopia (x = 0.95)  18  35  52  Strong myopia (x = 0.90)  13  25  37  Notes: The number in the table refers to the first year that a $ cash-flow falls below 10%, 1% and 0.1% of its actual value in present value terms.

Changes in the compensation instrument can also help – for example, remunerating in equity is better than in cash and remunerating in junior or convertible debt might be better than either.29  (d)  Taxation/Subsidies: Authors have suggested a variety of ways in which government could penalise short-duration holdings of securities, or incentivise longduration holdings, using tax and / or subsidy measures. These measures differ in detail, but the underlying principle is to link them to the duration of an investor’s holdings or the length or nature of a company’s investment.30  Some of these initiatives have been tried and tested in differing degrees, at different times and in different countries. They have not obviously arrested the short-termism trend. It might be time to increase the level of policy ambition if the telescope is to be corrected, the voting  26  Aspen Institute (2009), CFA (2006). 27  Duruigbo (2011). 28  Securities and Exchange Commission (2010), Aspen Institute (2009). 29  Haldane (2011). 30  Aspen Institute (op.cit. ), Poterba and Summers (1995). BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  machine socialised, the savage civilised. Public policy could help keep the plums in the pudding. Without intervention, the long could become shorter still. References Aspen Institute (2009), “Overcoming Short-termism: A Call for a More Responsible Approach to Investment and Business Management”, The Aspen Institute Business and Society Program, September 9. Barton, D (2011), “Capitalism for the Long Term”, Harvard Business Review, March.
59  As discussed by Morton (2011), this quote is widely attributed to Gandhi but is likely a case of paraphrasing his actual words. Specifically, the PSHE component of the curriculum. https://www.speakers4schools.org 62 These and other initiatives were discussed at the Future Forum hosted by the Bank in Liverpool a couple of weeks ago. 60 61  15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  15  The Bank has for a long time run a schools competition, Target 2.0. This had many virtues, but diversity was not one of them. In the 16 years the competition ran, independent schools accounted for 43% of the total participants and 56% of the national champions – large multiples of their population share. The Bank’s new film competition, “Bank, Camera, Action” hopes to level that playing field. In its first year, this attracted 106 entries, with 80% of participating schools from the state sector. Conclusion A few months ago, I was giving a talk at a school in one of the poorest towns in the UK – indeed, one of the poorest in the EU. The school had a “Needs Improvement” rating from Ofsted. It had had 50% - that’s five, zero – teacher turnover the previous year. The children attending were from poor backgrounds and had very low academic and career aspirations. I knew this was going to be a tough gig.

Its level of linguistic complexity is 5 years lower than the Inflation Report, making it accessible to around 14 million more people, or around a quarter of the adult population. A third example is the Bank’s flagship publication, the Inflation Report. In November, the Bank for the first time published the Report in three layers: Layer 3 was the usual “50 page, 50 chart” version; Layer 2 was the “1-2 page, 1-2 chart” version; and Layer 1 was the “1 line, 1 chart” version. With a level of complexity more than 6 years below Layer 3, Layers 1 and 2 in principle could reach an extra 21 million people. Early evidence suggests this layering has helped in reaching a broader audience. Website hits on the November Inflation Report were double the average from earlier quarters. These extra hits were entirely accounted for by Layers 1 and 2, while Layer 3 hits were essentially unchanged. This suggests that layering has enabled the MPC to reach a new, wider audience without cannibalising its existing audience. 42  Producing simplified material, like layering, is neither a short cut nor an easy option. Nor is it simply an act of communication. Message simplification is an act of policy. As such, simplified messages need to be agreed and signed-off by policy committees – as were the Layer 1 and 2 messages in the Bank’s November Inflation Report. They are another example of the Marshall McLuhan maxim of the medium becoming the message.
Tarisa Watanagase: Searching for a second wind – overcoming shortterm obstacles for long-term prosperity Dinner talk by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand, Bangkok, 24 July 2008. *  *  *  Distinguished FCCT Members and Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to begin by thanking members of the FCCT Board, for inviting me to deliver this dinner talk. Today, I am very pleased to have an opportunity to share with you how I see the Thai economy evolving at the moment. The Bank of Thailand relies very much on the press in our communication to the public and this includes foreign correspondents in addition to the domestic ones. Therefore, whether you are aware of it or not, you are our partners in central bank’s public communication process. At the outset, I would like to reaffirm that the Monetary Policy Committee’s collective decision to raise policy rate Wednesday last week was in the best interest of the Thai economy over the medium term. And, my talk today will aim to address two important questions, which everybody may have in his or her mind, on the future prospect of the Thai economy. These questions are first whether the Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy is right for the current economic situation and secondly whether Thailand has the capacity to overcome the numerous challenges and regain dynamism in the near future.

And we have, of course, tried to assess the impact of the dramatic stock market decline from the peaks in 2000 on macroeconomic conditions and financial stability. In this regard, it mattered that, partly linked to the introduction of the euro, the outstanding amount of shares substantially increased in the euro area. For non-financial corporations in the euro area, the annual net issuance of shares increased from 1.7% of GDP in 1995 to 7.3% of GDP in 2000. At the same time, during the late 1990s, the distribution of shares across the euro area population broadened significantly, implying that more households invested in shares in the late 1990s than before. Corrected for valuation effects, the amount of household’s holdings of shares and mutual fund shares increased between 1995 and 2003 by 78%. Against this background, stock prices have become more relevant to economic conditions in the euro area in recent years. And indeed, when stock prices started to fall, we could see that this had a notable dampening effect on the euro area economy in the period 2001-2003. What role do asset prices play in the ECB’s monetary policy? After this description of the current situation, the crucial question is: how do asset price developments enter into the assessment of the outlook for price stability and how they influence the policy-formulation of the ECB. Recently, much attention has been devoted to the question of which monetary policy strategies are optimal in an environment of strong asset price fluctuations.
There is an active debate underway on the first of these – the likely future path of innovation. Some have recently argued that the pace of innovation may be declining. 43  The argument here is that many of the  low-hanging fruit from the ICT revolution have already been picked. Diminishing returns to R&D may have set in. And other secular forces – including adverse demographics and rising inequality – may have acted as additional headwinds to growth. 44  This view sometimes goes by the name secular stagnation. 45  An alternative school of thought believes we may instead be on the cusp of a new great wave of innovation, a Fourth Industrial Revolution. 46  This revolution in innovation will, it is said, be jet-propelled by a set of  potentially new GPTs, among them AI, Big Data and robotics. For technology optimists, the story is one of secular innovation, not stagnation. And on this view, the potential gains in productivity and growth could be as large as any of the earlier industrial revolutions. 47  42  Schumpeter (1942). Gordon (2012), Fernald (2014). 44 Summers (2013) and Rachel and Smith (2015). 45 Secular stagnation theory was originally proposed by Hansen (1938) in the aftermath of the Great Depression 46 Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2014) discuss ‘The Second Machine Age’. 47 Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (2017).

While individual jurisdictions may be confronted with specific challenges of implementation that may arise from differences in economic and market structures, there is also much in common, particularly among emerging economies, that can be shared among jurisdictions. The period of observation on some of the components of the reform package provided by the Basel Committee is welcomed. It will allow jurisdictions to consider appropriate actions needed to support the effective implementation of the reforms. At the same time, there is an expectation that there will be a willingness by the international standard setting community to adjust or otherwise supplement current prescriptions, frameworks or implementation strategies as more experience is gained under changing market conditions. The effective implementation would also require support for the implementation of the reforms, particularly in the area of capacity building, particularly in the emerging and developing world. Inclusive communication channels with the market and an inclusive process of global consultations will allow us to benefit from the experience of others and, more importantly, facilitate more coordinated policy responses and thus support the orderly adjustments to the new standards. While the evolution of financial stability policies over the recent two years has seen clearer mandates being established for the regulatory authorities, the framework for financial stability both at the national and international levels continue to be a subject of intense discussion.
I remember  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the speech our distinguished guest delivered at the end of his ECB tenure and the fact that the closing remarks showed not only a good sense of humour, but also a subtle comprehension of the manner in which physical distances and especially distances in time alter the assessment of individuals and, if I may add, of events. Please allow me to read the final part of the aforementioned speech, which presents the timeline of the news published by Le Moniteur concerning the return of Napoleon from his exile on Elba Island: 10 March – “The Corsican ogre has landed at Cape Juan”; 11 March – “The tiger is in Gap. Troops are on their way and will stop him. He will end his miserable adventure as a homeless refugee in the mountains”; 12 March – “The monster succeeded in proceeding to Grenoble”; 13 March – “The tyrant is now in Lyon. Horror has caught the people”; 18 March – “The usurper is some days’ march distant from Paris”; 19 March – “Bonaparte approaches in a hurry, but he will not succeed in advancing to Paris”; 20 March – “Napoleon will be in Paris tomorrow”; 21 March – “Emperor Napoleon is in Fontainebleau”; 22 March – “Yesterday evening His Majesty celebrated his arrival in Paris. The jubilation cannot be described”.

We must, with conviction and courage, move towards realizing our growth targets, while improving our macroeconomic fundamentals. If we can achieve 8% growth on a continuous basis for 8 or 9 years, we would be in a position to double our per capita income. For a country like Sri Lanka that would mean we would reach a per capita income of around $ 3,000 by the year 2015, from our current per capita of around $ 1,600. That is not an impossible dream. Sri Lanka has shown that, with determination and a clear focus, it can be done. In fact, from 2005 to 2007, our per capita income shot up by nearly 30%! These successes can be maintained, but that could only be done with hard work and more hard work. Mr. Chairman, South Asia, the huge giant, is finally waking up from its’ deep slumber. This giant had been taking a long rest, after enjoying a glorious past. A huge giant cannot stir, without the world around noticing the rumble. All recent indications are that the world is certainly taking note of this re-awakening. It is time for all of us in this region to capitalize on  6  BIS Review 29/2008  this new visibility. All of us who are in this region know that our destinies are linked. We rise and fall together.