samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The point in Figure 6 that corresponds to February 2008 is not far from origin, while the point that corresponds to February 2009 is a long way from origin and represents substantial sum of squares for the inflation-gap and output-gap forecasts. Assessing whether monetary policy has been efficient thus entails attempting to determine whether monetary policy has been on the modified Taylor curve or not. The analysis is therefore ex ante, which means that the starting point is the central bank's forecasts for inflation and resource utilisation rather than the actual outcomes. In practice it is of course difficult to perform a more precise analysis, it becomes rather a question of determining to what extent monetary policy has been clearly inefficient in the sense that it is easy to find another repo rate path that would stabilise inflation more without stabilising resource utilisation less, or that would even stabilise both more. A factor that can make the analysis even more complicated is if the central bank, apart from inflation and a measure of resource utilisation, also includes other targets or limitations in its monetary policy deliberations. On such conceivable factor is so-called interest-rate smoothing, in other words that the central bank also chooses to even out the changes in the policy rate and ensure that they are made in relatively small and regular steps, for example by 0.25 percentage points at a time. With such a restriction, monetary policy will be located at a point above and to the right of the modified Taylor curve.

With this regard, the Data Management Group would act as the owner of the project. In addition, as the project itself is very crucial, which could create some wide impacts throughout the organization, the Bank of Thailand realizes its significance and hence assigning a group of high-ranking officials in forms of the Steering Committee to closely monitor the progress along the way. The committee panel is led by the Assistant Governor, Information System while I also serve as the project sponsor to ensure that the data management system project could well progress in accordance with the pre-scheduled plan. As for the roles of financial institutions which are major providers for a good deal of financial data in the system, most institutions have to bear high burden, both human labor resources as well as other expenses for data submission under the current system. With the implementation of the new system, most institutions unanimously provide great cooperation - to create comprehensive data transmission network that could accommodate all data transfer demands in time. Today’s opening ceremony presents the first phase of the financial institution electronic data submission project. From today onwards, financial institutions’ submission of over 200 hard copy and CRF reports would be substituted by merely 41 data sets. Consequently, this would more or less lessen the burden and make it more convenient for financial institutions to report data to the Bank of Thailand.
We expect domestic demand developments to support the downtrend in inflation and the improvement in current account deficit in the months to come. To sum up, a co-analysis of domestic and foreign demand reveals that forecasts are based on an outlook in which the contribution of aggregate demand conditions to the end-2013 inflation has slightly increased compared to the previous reporting period. This revision drove the end-2013 inflation forecast up by 0.1 points. As you all know, food, energy and import prices also play a great role in inflation forecasts. Therefore, before moving on to forecasts, I will briefly talk about our assumptions regarding these variables. Import prices remained below the assumptions of the July Inflation Report in the third quarter. On the other hand, oil prices materialized slightly above the assumptions (Chart 20). In line with the average futures prices in the first three weeks of October, the average assumption for 2013, which was set as USD 107 in July, was revised upwards to USD 109. This revision added 0.1 percentage points to the end-2013 inflation forecast. We preserved our assumption for the annual rate of increase in food prices as 7 percent. In other words, it was assumed that the recent unfavorable course of unprocessed food prices would be temporary. Before moving on to forecasts, I will talk about our assumptions regarding public finance. Medium-term projections are based on the assumption that no additional tax adjustments will be introduced to tobacco and energy products the rest of the year.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Potential for new linkages and opportunities between Japan and Malaysia Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Malaysia-Japan Business Forum "Enhancing New Linkages And Opportunities", Kuala Lumpur, 24 August 2007. *  *  *  It is my honour and great pleasure to be here to speak at this important forum which brings together government leaders and the business community from our two countries. I would like to take the opportunity to thank the Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO) for inviting me to speak at this Forum. JETRO has played an important role in fostering the economic relations between Malaysia and Japan. While Japan and Malaysia has established strong economic ties, the environment in which we are operating has experienced pronounced changes. These changes present the potential for new linkages and opportunities between Japan and Malaysia. Enhancing interlinkages and integration in Asia Asia today is increasingly recognised as a dynamic growth region in the global economy. Asia's previous success was accomplished in part by strengthening its global interlinkages by exports to the rest of the world. Today, new regional interlinkages are emerging as Asia expands further its trade and investment within the region, a trend that has generated mutually reinforcing regional growth. The Asian economic integration is now already well advanced through the intensification of intra-regional trade and investment. Trade within Asia now accounts for more than half of the total trade of the region.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In Zambia, although the financial sector was not adversely affected by the crisis in a direct fashion, over the period 1995–2000, the sector experienced numerous episodes of bank failures that have had adverse effects on the confidence in the financial system. A total of ten banks were closed during this period and a major weakness noted in all the failures were the weak governance structures and practices in the banks. A close examination of the failed banks identified the following weaknesses which were common in most of them; large credit exposures, lending to connected parties, poor or absence of a credit policy, incompetent management coupled with ineffective boards, foreign exchange exposures and an absence of or inadequate risk management frameworks. In other banks, the board chairman was also the majority shareholder and the chief executive of the bank. Such basic risk management failures, to a large extent reflect a breakdown in corporate governance. Chairperson, you may wish to note that the Zambian Banking system is stronger and properly regulated today than it was in the 1990s. The Bank of Zambia has been periodically reviewing the Banking and Financial Services Act (BFSA) to bring it up to date with international standards and current global practices. One of the areas the Banks has continued to strengthen is the corporate governance provisions to ensure that the board of directors and senior management of banks and financial institutions conduct the affairs of their institutions prudently.

Their expertise will surely benefit our audience today. I would also like to thank HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, BOC and BNP Paribas for sharing their experiences with everyone later today. 15. Ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fruitful workshop and I look forward to working closely together with the industry to develop green and sustainable banking in Hong Kong. Thank you very much. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
14  Figure 5  Real wage mass (*)  Daily index of economic uncertainty (DEPUC)  (percent, contributions to monthly change, seasonally-adjusted) Employment Wages Wage mass  500  1,5 1.5  400  2,0 2.0  1.0 1,0  (index)  300  0.5 0,5 200  0.0 0,0  100  -0,5 -0.5 -1,0 -1.0 21  22  23  0 12  14  16  18  20  22  (*) Estimated using seasonally-adjusted series of real labor costs, hours usually worked and employment. Sources: Central Bank of Chile, Becerra and Sagner (2020), and National Statistics Institute. Figure 6  Gross fixed capital formation (1)  (index, 2018=100, original real series)  120  Current  Previous  IMCE (2)  (diffusion index)  100  115 75  110  Wholesale and retail trade Construction Manufacturing IMCE w/o mining  105 50  100 95  25  90 85 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  0 18  19  20  21  22  23  (1) For the fourth quarter of the previous series, the annual change of the current series is used. (2) Value above (below) 50 indicates optimism (pessimism). Sources: Central Bank of Chile and UAI/ICARE.

To increase labour utilisation and get people into work, necessary labour supply side measures include the reform of tax and benefit systems to address these problems and increase incentives to work. Measures aimed at reconciling motherhood with professional life, such as the provision of child care, may raise participation rates. Furthermore, the use of flexible forms of work such as part-time 8 and temporary work may also provide further working incentives. High unemployment rates in the euro area and in particular high youth unemployment rates, amounting to 17.8% in 2005, clearly suggest the need to spur labour demand. In this context, there is a need to promote wage flexibility and to address labour market rigidities. Furthermore, adjustments to the level of employment protection legislation are needed where they impede the hiring of younger and older workers in particular. Regarding the second priority area for reforms that I would like to mention, increasing competition and establishing efficient and well-functioning product markets is another prerequisite for higher medium to long-term growth. 9 The economic literature generally leads to the conclusion that competition is an important factor explaining both productivity and price developments 10 . A lack of competition harms productivity trends by limiting production efficiency and by reducing the incentive to innovate. Moreover, increased competition is generally associated with a lower price level brought about by a reduction in the mark-ups of firms, for given marginal costs.
It comes at an appropriate time because four years after the crisis, global imbalances remain unsustainably high. The sum of the current account balance (in absolute terms) of the major economies are projected to remain close to 2.5% of world GDP in the next few years. This is less than their pre-crisis peak (over 3% of world GDP), but still twice as high as in the early 1990s, before the acceleration in financial and real globalization. It is now of foremost importance to implement the Framework effectively, and to fully live up to the expectations that the G20 process raised internationally. The G20 Cannes Summit will provide a litmus test. Multilateral surveillance of domestic policies of systemic countries to ensure their orientation towards medium term stability and sustainability is being strengthened in the IMF as well. The recently conducted first round of IMF spillover reports, the Consolidated Multilateral Surveillance Report to the IMFC and the current triennial review of IMF surveillance can be seen as useful steps towards a broader and more comprehensive framework. 3. Strengthening governance in the euro area  The need to strengthen discipline is understood strongly on our side of the Atlantic, so that the euro area can do its part in contributing to global stability. The earlier economic governance framework has proved to be insufficiently binding while lacking appropriate comprehensiveness.

Third, as regards the euro area and the sovereign debt crisis, of which the euro area is currently the epicentre, the euro area central banks, and the ECB in particular, have been permanently calling for sound economic policy management, in particular in the fiscal domain, for structural reforms and for reinforced economic governance. As independent institutions that are devoted to stability and that are medium- to long-term oriented, we are an anchor of stability and confidence. This is especially valuable in the turbulent market environment that we are witnessing and that is characterised by acute tensions of some sovereign signatures which are causing negative spillovers on others. Only a few weeks ago, the central bankers were all meeting in the BIS headquarters in Basel in our Global Economy Meeting. Reporting to the press afterwards, I stressed that we were all very closely “united in purpose”: each of us in our own economy, with its different features and challenges, striving to solidly anchor inflation expectations, preserve stability and consolidate confidence. Meeting here in Washington, authorities have the opportunity to display the same unity in purpose to address their economic challenges at home, prevent negative spillovers for the global economy and consolidate confidence in the world recovery.
As you can see in blue in Chart 8, long-term sickness has driven much of the persistent rise in inactivity amongst 16 to 64 year olds since the start of the pandemic. That is a striking fact. As their number has increased, the inactive population appears more detached from the labour market. More of the inactive people now say that they would not like a job than before the pandemic, and fewer now expect to return to work. How should monetary policy respond to such a reduction in labour force participation? Bank of England  Page 13  The first thing to note is that this does not seem to be a case in which participation has fallen in response to weaker economic conditions and a weaker labour market. This is not a fall in participation driven by a shock to demand. So, we should not expect there to be a margin of spare capacity outside the workforce that exerts downward pressure on inflation in a way that would call for a lower level of interest rates to stimulate demand. Instead, the rise in economic inactivity is a change to the supply of labour, independent of demand, in particular by older workers. If those workers have accumulated enough savings to sustain a desired level of consumption much like the one they had before their early retirement, at least for a while, aggregate demand will not have fallen by as much as aggregate supply.

Norhana Endut: Keynote address at the Malaysian Financial Planning Council Keynote address by Ms Norhana Endut, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Financial Planning Council, Kuala Lumpur, 5 November 2022. *** It is my great pleasure to be here today at the 9th MFPC Graduation Ceremony. First of all, I wish to congratulate all successful graduates from the Class of 2019 to 2022. I am sure many of you have been waiting for this ceremony as it was postponed due to the pandemic since 2020. The critical role of financial planning is often overlooked. But one lesson that we can take from the recent pandemic and economic crisis is that a sound financial management and planning is critical in weathering the storm. It is your role now as Registered Financial Planners and Shariah Registered Financial Planners to take the stage in helping Malaysians manage and rebuild their financial standing post-pandemic and be prepared for the future. The Malaysian economy has recorded a strong growth momentum following the reopening of all the sectors in the economy this year. Key to this is the improvements in labour market, in particular, income growth. While there are reasons to be optimistic about the growth momentum, next year presents a more challenging outlook to the global economy with rising global inflationary pressures, signs of moderation in growth in several major economies, ongoing geopolitical conflicts and highly volatile financial markets. Malaysia is certainly not insulated from some of these headwinds.
In this context, it should be borne in mind that in the long term, central banks can affect inflation and can have a corresponding impact on the nominal exchange rate, but they cannot affect the real exchange rate in the long run. If the real exchange rate rises because of an increase in the equilibrium real exchange rate and the Central Bank halts the rise in the nominal exchange rate, the real exchange rate will ultimately rise in any case, through larger wage increases and inflation. If the Bank had halted the rise in the exchange rate at all costs, inflation would probably be well above the target already, and it is very unlikely that inflation expectations would be at target. This would also have been inconsistent with the Bank’s legally mandated price stability objective. It would also have been quite costly, as the credibility of monetary policy would have been gone and interest rates in the future would need to be higher in order to restore that credibility. If there is the will to impede the rise in the real exchange rate and mitigate the crowding-out effect that tourism has on other sectors, which is certainly needed, but without sacrificing price stability, it must be done with policy instruments that can have a lasting impact on the real exchange rate, such as tighter fiscal policy.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Preventing spillovers on the global economy Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Bretton Woods Committee, International Council Meeting 2011, Washington DC, 23 September 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, It is now four years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which were stark reminders of how much financial integration and globalisation made all economies interdependent. This interdependence creates benefits but also adverse spillovers which may arise in all domains, from inadequate macro policy choices to private market imperfections. I will focus today on two key areas of policy interest to address spillovers in the global economy: (1) reforming global finance, and (2) strengthening policy discipline at the domestic and global level, before turning to how the euro area can contribute to global stability. 1. Reforming global finance  At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 leaders agreed “to do everything needed to repair our financial system and to maintain the global flow of capital”. The November 2011 G20 Cannes summit will take stock of where we stand in terms of implementation of this important reform agenda. In a number of areas, important decision have already been taken, notably as regards the improvement of bank capital with the agreement on Basel III, and the development of macroprudential frameworks. In other areas, we are close to concluding our work, in particular as regards a new global framework on systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).
This was how I felt, anyway, when I turned 50 last year, although others may scoff if they like. On the other hand, institutions like central banks are not mortal individuals with a limited lifespan, and for them, birthdays and anniversaries are cairns marking a path with no obvious endpoint – a path that must point to the future, and to progress. The past only has meaning insofar as it illuminates the road to the future. The inflation target that we observe now is a function of much more than merely keeping inflation at bay. The policy centres on setting the right ground rules between democratically elected representatives, on the one hand, and experts or officials, on the other. And it rests on the foundations of a simple division of labour: elected representatives define monetary policy objectives, and the Central Bank has the independent power to execute policy in the pursuit of those objectives. In this context, the Central Bank can be viewed as an independent contractor engaged by the people of Iceland. The ground rules of inflation targeting have proven to be good ones for democratic countries, as inflation targeting demands transparency and public accountability, in line with the precepts governing an open society. Yes, inflation-targeting central banks work on a public stage and must be able to participate in public discourse in a dedicated and resolute way. In the final analysis, each is judged according to their actions.

That is the primary aim of this morning’s symposium, bringing together the scientific committees of both the ACP and the AMF who play a key advisory role in each of our  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  institutions and who clearly work in areas of common interest. It is organised around the following specific themes that I would like to introduce with a few words. I.  Firstly, in a difficult context, French households have altered their investment choices: what are the consequences of this alteration? Already high before the crisis, the savings rate of French households has further increased, reaching levels close to those recorded at the start of the 1980s. This increase in the savings rate seems to reflect a precautionary attitude on the part of households. The year 2011 was also characterised by a significant reallocation of assets between the various savings options. Alongside a substantial withdrawal from UCITS and a fall in net new money flowing into life insurance contracts – a movement that has nevertheless slowed since the beginning of 2012 – bank savings products have posted a significant rise in deposits. Savers clearly decided to place their money in more liquid and less risky banking products such as passbooks to the detriment of long-term investments, despite the need for the latter to cover certain requirements for both households and the economy.