samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Public and private partners are involved in this undertaking — they formed a consortium composed of the Rzeszow University of Technology, other technical universities, a group of aviation industry enterprises called “The Aviation Valley” and the Polish Aviation Institute”. Globalisation influences the perspectives of the world’s major economies. In the USA, the discussion on relocation of jobs to the Asian countries became a lively element of political debate during the last presidential elections. Similarly, in Europe a debate is underway concerning the future of the single services market. There is no doubt, however, that any solutions of regulatory or protectionist nature may hinder all these changes only temporarily, as they are inevitable. The countries, whose politicians will understand the mechanisms of the global economy and will implement necessary reforms to improve the investment climate, will benefit the most from the globalisation processes. Entrepreneurs should also keep a sharp lookout on the globalisation processes currently underway, in order to respond to the emerging threats in a timely manner, but - first of all - in order to benefit from the great opportunities that they create. Thank you very much for your attention. 8  BIS Review 19/2006

In many countries the instrumental rate moved down from 10% in 1995 to Stage Three’s initial rate, which practice was set already on 22 December 1998 when all the future euro countries lowered their instrumental rates to 3%. To ensure that the fiscal goals enshrined in the convergence criteria would continue to guide policy in the monetary union, in 1997 the EU member states concluded the Stability and Growth Pact. This Pact’s best-known requirement is that a general government deficit is not to exceed 3% of GDP and that if it does, sanctions will be applied. I should like to remind you, however, that the Pact is also intended to promote a balanced development of government finances over the business cycle. All EU member states are required to present annual stability programmes (in the case of non-euro countries, convergence programmes) that are first discussed in the Economic and Financial Committee and later in the Ecofin Council. In addition to these processes for testing that every country adheres to the rules, Broad Economic Policy Guidelines are drawn up annually. This document can be said to represent a common general approach to economic policy - a budget statement for the EU area. Last but not least, there are processes for guiding countries along the road towards creating more efficient markets for goods, services, capital and labour. These are complex issues and the member states tend to differ considerably in their initial positions as well as their attitudes.
However, it will be interesting to see if, to what extent, and in what areas people in Switzerland will use the euro as a means of payment. Certain structural effects of the euro have already become evident for quite a while, for example on the primary bond market, where the Swiss franc is losing in weight while the euro capital market is enjoying growing popularity due mainly to its excellent liquidity. According to the survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for the trading days of the month of April, the trading volume in international foreign exchange transactions dropped by nearly 20% within three years. Another contributing factor to this development was the advance of electronic trading and the discontinuation of trading between the euro's predecessor currencies. Roughly 6% of all global foreign exchange transactions include the Swiss franc. This share still amounted to 7% three years ago and to just over 8% nine years back. The fact that the Swiss franc has lost relative significance in foreign exchange trading is probably largely attributable to institutional conditions for trading in additional currencies having improved. By far most of the Swiss franc transactions were effected against the US dollar. This currency pair was traded approximately five times as frequently as the Swiss franc-euro pair. This volume ratio, however, is likely to be subject to strong fluctuations depending on specific exchange rate developments.

In short, we have been designated as an honorary member of this entity. My thanks to the Association but, above all, to those who have made this work possible over the years, and to those continuing it and adding to its prestige today. Lastly, allow me to stress another of the grounds for a publication such as that we are presenting today. It is a question of transparency, understood as the possibility of sharing information with society as a whole. As I pointed out in one of my early public appearances as governor of the Banco de España, I consider making high-quality statistical information 4/5  available to researchers as absolutely crucial for sound analyses and research enabling better-founded economic policy decision-making.1 In this respect, we intend in the coming years to pursue various projects that allow these researchers to have access to our statistical information, thereby enabling different avenues of analysis and research of benefit to society as a whole. In conclusion, I would like to reiterate my satisfaction at these initiatives and to thank the efforts and contributions, from both the public and private spheres, of those who have participated in this publication. In some ways, this substantiates the fact that these avenues for sharing information and making it available to society are enormously beneficial for all. Thank you. 1  See my “Welcome address” for the Second Annual Research Conference of Banco de España, 2018, at: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/IntervencionesPublicas/Gobernador/Arc/hdc030918en.pdf. 5/5
The spot nominal interest rate on a ten-year zero-coupon government bond can be thought of as the average of the short-term interest rates expected to prevail over the ten year period, plus a term premium (which is often thought of as compensating investors for uncertainty around those short-term interest rates). Comparisons between yields on government bonds of different maturities can be used to identify a sequence of forward rates (ie the expected short rates at each point in time plus a forward term premium associated with that maturity). Using the information from the yields on inflation-linked government bonds, expectations of nominal short-term interest rates and forward premia can be broken down further into the expected future inflation rate (and an associated forward inflation term premium) and the expected future real interest rate (together with the associated forward real term premia), equation (1). ftnominal(n) = (Et[rt+n] + RPtReal) + (Et[πt+n] + RPtπ) ; where ftnominal(n) denotes the n-period ahead forward interest rate prevailing at time t; Et[rt+n] and Et[πt+n] the expectations for the real interest rate and the rate of inflation at that point and RPtReal and RPtπ the corresponding forward real and inflation term premia. In principle, then, there are two broad channels through which a decision by monetary policy makers to change their policy rate could affect longer-term interest rates, such as the 10-year government bond yield. First, the decision could change market participants’ expectation of either real interest rates or inflation. It is worth noting two standard bedrocks of monetary economics here.

–  The public finances should be managed with an eye to the nature and extent of risk exposures elsewhere in the economy. –  It is the precise pattern of capital flows, and the resulting composition of the resulting balance sheets, that matter to the stability of the financial system. All macro policymakers – monetary, macroprudential and fiscal – should, therefore, pay attention to the national balance sheet; and to the pattern of gross as well as net capital flows. –  But, in doing so, we and our peers must avoid financial protectionism just as a previous generation learned to oppose trade protectionism. And we must not leave anyone thinking that we can eradicate economic problems. 26  The IMF’s most recent spillover report on the UK can be found at http://www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11225.pdf. That report concluded: “the size and interconnectedness of the UK financial sector make it a powerful originator, transmitter, and potential dampener of global shocks. The stability and efficiency of the UK financial sector is, therefore, a global public good requiring the highest quality supervision and regulation”. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Conclusion Around the Western world, excess indebtedness became legion during the opening years of the last decade. US subprime mortgages, perhaps the most egregious although by no means the largest example, became the straw that shattered the camel’s back. In this metaphor, both the “straw” and the “camel” are balance sheets.
Zeti Akhtar Aziz: The International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance Governor's luncheon address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launching of The International Centre For Education In Islamic Finance (INCEIF), Kuala Lumpur, 23 March 2006. *  *  *  It is my great pleasure and honour to welcome you to this luncheon in conjunction with the Meeting of the 1440 Hijrah Vision Commission of the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the Launch of the Vision Document that has taken place this morning for the transformation of the Islamic Development Bank to become the premier catalyst for greater shared prosperity and development among the ummah. We are most honoured today by the presence of Yang Amat Berhormat Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate the IDB for the successful launch of the IDB 1440 Hijrah Vision. The Vision Document would serve as an important blue print for the transformation of the IDB into a dynamic Development Bank that will contribute to the "comprehensive human development", and thereby achieving prosperity for the ummah. We are also honoured today by the presence of His Excellency Tun Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad, Chairman of the Commission, and His Excellency Dr. Ahmad Mohamed Ali, President of the Islamic Development Bank Group.

John C Williams: Monetary policy strategies for a low-neutralinterest-rate world Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 30 November 2018. * * * As prepared for delivery I would like to start by thanking Tharman for the invitation to participate in this panel of esteemed current and former policymakers. I am also pleased to continue the long tradition of hosting the Group of Thirty at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and very much look forward to this morning’s discussion. In my remarks, I will focus on the following question: What long-run monetary policy strategy is best suited to anchor inflation expectations, foster price stability, and promote maximum employment? I emphasize the phrase “long-run” because I will focus on the features of a systematic policy framework, rather than tactical policy decisions. This topic is not only of academic interest: As was recently announced, the Federal Reserve is embarking on a review of its long-run monetary policy framework.1 I will argue that the global decline in the neutral rate of interest over the past quarter century poses significant challenges to maintaining wellanchored inflation expectations in a standard inflation-targeting regime. I will then lay out some alternative policy strategies that have the potential of providing a solid anchor for inflation expectations—even with a very low neutral interest rate—while preserving broad continuity with current inflation-targeting practice.
A problem, of course, was the persistent weakness of the Euro in foreign exchange markets, despite strong "fundamentals" in terms of conventional analysis. This was largely the result of an outflow of capital, much of it drawn into the US by the magnetic attraction of prospective corporate earnings growth – and apparently continuing despite the US slowdown. The euro's weakness gave rise to widespread – but in my view unjustified – criticism of the ECB. The task of a central bank operating an independent monetary policy is necessarily a limited task, not least because it effectively has only one instrument – its control over short-term interest rates. Its role – as I said earlier – is essentially, to use that instrument to influence aggregate demand in the economy, with the aim of keeping demand broadly in line with the supply-side capacity of the economy. The measure of its success is consistently low inflation. Against that criterion the ECB has been relatively successful. The Euro area economy has grown, above trend, with core inflation nevertheless remaining within the tolerance range of 0-2%, even though on the headline measure, influenced by rising oil prices and the weaker exchange rate, inflation has for the time being moved above the top of that range. The ECB would have put that internal stability of the Euro area as a whole at risk if it had attempted at the same time to use monetary policy to target the euro's exchange rate.

Short-term demand management through monetary policy too often led instead to accelerating inflation, and increasing external deficits, which had eventually to be brought under control through recession – an absolute recipe for short-termism in both financial and business behaviour. Equally, excessive public expenditure – which had ultimately to be financed through higher taxation – imposed burdens on the private sector which weakened its capacity to generate employment and income and wealth. So the emphasis now, more or less everywhere, is on effective price stability as the immediate objective of macro-economic policy – not simply as an end in itself but as a measure of the balance between aggregate demand and underlying supply in the economy as a whole. In effect the aim of monetary policy in particular is to moderate, rather than aggravate, the economic cycle, and so to provide the basis for sustainable growth at around the underlying rate of growth of productive, supplyside, potential. And the emphasis now – again more or less everywhere – in relation to fiscal policy is to limit public sector borrowing, and the outstanding level of public sector debt, to levels that can be sustained into the medium and longer term without the need for increasing tax burdens or the imposition of rising real interest rates on the private sector.
The most notable example here is perhaps in the UK where the government will abolish the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and transfer its regulatory responsibility back to the Bank of England. While the UK may be an extreme case, a growing consensus has emerged that central banks should play a key role in preserving the overall stability and smooth functioning of the financial system. In this respect, having supervisory authority over systemically important financial institutions, such as commercial banks, would make the central bank’s job a little easier. Clearly, having monetary policy, lender of last resort function, and macroprudential policy under the same roof allows for better policy coordination. Ladies and Gentlemen, Against the backdrop of the changing policy philosophy in the global central banking community, let me now turn to the second part of my talk which is what the Bank of Thailand has been doing in the past few years with regard to the maintenance of financial stability. Through the 1997 Asian financial crisis, we learnt firsthand the importance of financial stability to the real economy as well as the need to preserve it. Indeed, that the Thai economy recovered rapidly from the global financial crisis this time can be attributed in part to policies that put a strong emphasis on the health of the financial system.

This means that, we will be able to take care of systemically important financial firms outside current regulatory purview if the situation warrants. Ladies and Gentleman, Lastly, let me share with you what I see as major challenges for the maintenance of financial stability in Thailand. While we may have a head start over many countries, we are not in anyway complacent. In particular, three important challenges loom on the horizon. First, the global economy, while doing much better than a year ago, still have many vulnerabilities which could give rise to the next round of global financial instability. Most importantly, the public debt problems in certain European countries constitute a major risk factor. At the other end of the spectrum, the growth and interest rate disparity between Asia and advanced economies amidst the still abundant global liquidity from the unprecedented monetary policy stimulus around the world could attract de-stabilizing capital inflows that will put pressure on exchange rate, encourage a buildup of financial institutions’ short-term debt, and fuel bubbles in various sectors. Second, in light of the possible buildups of financial imbalances, there is a need to further enhance the ability to identify potential threats early on. For example, at least in its early phase, bubbles are almost always associated with favourable economic fundamentals. Effective monitoring of bubbles therefore calls for better data collection, market intelligence, and risk analysis. While timely bubble identification remains very difficult, the good news is that better identification techniques are being developed and will continue to improve.
These figures show a significant increase in the use of real-time gross settlements in the EU since the introduction of the euro;  –  the smooth functioning of the entire integrated organisation of the Eurosystem, in which the decision-making centre works in constant contact with the national central banks on the implementation of operations. The reasons for this achievement lie primarily with the in-depth preparatory work conducted over several years by the central banking community and private financial market operators. BIS Review 28/2001  1  b/ Second, together with many other factors, this technical and operational success has contributed to the high credibility of the single monetary policy, which is guaranteed, inter alia, by the independence of the European Central Bank and of the national central banks. The Eurosystem has inherited the store of confidence that was built up over several decades by the national central banks in charge of the most reputable currencies. In France for example, the last opinion survey indicated that 80% of French citizens trust the Banque de France. And the level of confidence in the other countries participating in the euro area towards their respective NCB, is certainly as high. Moreover, and contrary to what is often said, the monetary union of Europe is not starting from scratch.

BIS Review 28/2001  3  Even more importantly, the euro zone is not devoid of mechanisms conducive to an appropriate policy mix. As a matter of fact, monetary policy alone cannot ensure price stability without the appropriate fiscal discipline at the overall EMU level. Indeed, for my part, I would mention three economic justifications for the Treaty provisions that gave rise to the Stability and Growth Pact: –  First, by co-ordinating the fiscal policies of the Member States of Monetary Union, the pact ensures a good policy mix within the Euro area. This is essential for monetary policy, to counterbalance the fact that Europe does not have a significant federal budget, just as it has no federal government. Close mutual surveillance and co-ordination of fiscal policies are the responsibility of the “Euro Group” and of the Ecofin Council. Adherence to the medium-term objective of achieving budgets that are “close to balance or in surplus” means that individual countries must first rely on themselves to withstand possible economic downturns which affect only their own economy, while ensuring a balanced policy mix throughout the euro zone. –  Second, the pact helps to prevent well-managed economies from having to bear an unjustified risk premium by setting up a penalty system for excessive deficits. –  And lastly, the stability and growth pact allows us to disprove the assertion that the euro area has no automatic stabilisers in the event of asymmetric shocks to a member economy.
Indeed, growth rates of money and credit which are persistently in excess of those needed to sustain non-inflationary economic growth may, under certain circumstances, provide early information on emerging, and potentially destabilising, asset price bubbles. In this respect, they act as a permanent admonition for vigilance in the face of unusual movements in asset prices. 6  BIS Review 66/2004  From what I have said, it has become clear that it is important to monitor asset prices and to try to avoid the emergence of unsustainable, pronounced movements in asset prices which may subsequently lead to sharp recessions. Obviously, there cannot be a mechanical link between asset prices and monetary policy instruments. Central banks, however, should take asset price movements into account, especially if large swings in asset prices imply long-term risks to financial and economic stability. Concluding remarks As you can see, there are a number of key concepts which I have emphasised in my speech today: “strong vigilance”; “careful monitoring and analysis”; “medium-term orientation”; “prompt reaction”. These are central elements of our approach to monetary policy-making, both at the current juncture and in connection with the specific topic of asset price developments that I discussed in the second part of my address. We live in a world of considerable uncertainty, not just in terms of economic shocks - which by definition are impossible to predict - but also in terms of our knowledge of how the economy functions, how economic agents form expectations and react to events and changing conditions.

And finally, in percentage terms, the oil price increase has not been as high as in previous oil price shocks. Despite this, however, oil price increases constitute a significant adverse shock to the euro area economy - through their direct impact on energy prices, their implications for global economic growth, and their adverse effect on the euro area’s terms of trade. If oil prices were to remain at close to USD 50 per barrel, or even increase further, they would dampen the strength of the recovery. With regard to inflation, oil price developments have had a powerful direct impact on the year-on-year change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), particularly in recent weeks. In October, annual inflation increased to 2.5%, according to a provisional estimate, from 2.1% in September. The oil price shock may feed through the economy and generate further indirect effects in the coming months. This is indicated by developments in producer prices, which showed a year-on-year increase of around 5% in September. On the whole, however, the information available so far does not suggest that stronger underlying inflationary pressures are building up in the euro area. Wages have grown at rates of around 2- 2½% over recent quarters. This trend should persist for some time in view of the high level of unemployment in the euro area.