This indicates that significant structural rigidities have prevented an appropriate adjustment of wages. Taking all of the above into account, at its last meeting on 6 February 2003, the Governing Council concluded that following the decision to lower the ECB key rates by 50 basis points in December, the monetary policy stance remained appropriate to preserve a favourable outlook for price stability in the medium term. Consequently, the ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged. Their already low level should help to counterbalance the negative effects on economic activity that currently stem from the high degree of worldwide uncertainty and should, therefore, contribute to a sustainable economic recovery in the course of 2003. For the time being, we still assume that the high degree of uncertainty will decline in the course of this year. However, at this juncture it is not possible to assess how the ongoing geopolitical developments will affect the world economy and, in particular, the euro area economy. The Governing Council will continue to monitor closely all factors that may affect the prospects for inflation in the euro area. The euro area outlook will also very much depend on progress in other policy areas. As regards fiscal policy, full adherence to the fiscal policy framework laid down in the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact provides a sound basis for limiting the risk of fiscal imbalances occurring and thus contributes significantly to favourable financing conditions for the private sector. At the same time, it preserves an appropriate medium-term orientation for fiscal policy.

Further turbulence in the oil markets could have a negative impact on economic activity throughout the world and, therefore, on euro area employment as well. These  BIS Review 8/2003  1  concerns could weigh adversely on confidence. In addition, the accumulated macroeconomic imbalances outside the euro area have led to uncertainty surrounding the strength of the recovery in other major economies. By way of conclusion, there are still downside risks to the outlook for euro area economic activity. Turning to prices, HICP inflation has remained slightly above 2% in recent months. On the one hand, there was upward pressure from oil prices and from various increases in indirect taxes and administered prices. On the other hand, the strengthening of the euro, together with base effects, helped to limit year-on-year consumer price increases. Looking ahead, given the outlook for moderate economic growth, the gradual pass-through of the appreciation of the euro should contribute to a dampening of inflationary pressures. Overall, the most likely outcome remains that inflation will fall and eventually stabilise at a level below 2% in the course of 2003. However, the volatility in oil prices makes it very difficult to forecast prospects for inflation movements accurately, especially in the short term. Moderate wage developments are a major prerequisite in order for price stability to prevail in the medium term. This will also help to improve the prospects for economic growth and further employment creation. When looking back we see that wage growth followed an upward trend until recently, despite the economic slowdown.