Bodea, C and Hicks, R (2015), ‘Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions’, International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 1, p. 35-61. Botsman, R (2016), ‘We’ve stopped trusting institutions and started trusting strangers’, available at ted.com Briault, C, Haldane, A and King, M (1997), ‘Independence and Accountability’, Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, Palgrave Macmillan UK, p. 299-340. Brunner, K (1981), ‘The Art of Central Banking’, Centre for Research in Government Policy and Business Working Paper, No. 81-6. Capie, F, Goodhard, C, Fischer, S and Schnadt, N (1994), The Future of Central Banking – The Tercentenary Symposium of the Bank of England, Cambridge University Press. Capie, F (2010), The Bank of England 1950s to 1979, Cambridge University Press. 38  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  38  Carney (2016), ‘The Spectre of Monetarism’, speech available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech946.pdf Carvalho, C and Nechio, F (2014), ‘Do people understand monetary policy?’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 66(C), p. 108-123. Claessens, S, Laeven, L and Cerutti, E (2016), ‘The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies, Journey of Financial Stability, forthcoming. Communic@tions Management Inc. (2013), ‘Can daily newspaper “brands” survive the decline (and likely disappearance) of the printed product?’, Discussion Paper. Cordemans, N (2015), ‘Monetary policy communication in the wake of the great recession’, National Bank of Belgium Economic Review, December 83-101. Crowe, C and Meade, E (2007), ‘The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 21, No. 4, p. 69-90.

They raise the risk that future shocks to domestic confidence or adverse changes in the external environment could lead to new pressures on exchange rates, on interest rates, and on the capacity of countries to fund themselves on sustainable terms. Apart from the risk of crisis, these debt levels are large enough to depress domestic investment and long-term growth prospects. In part because of these balance sheet and debt burdens, many emerging market economies face a protracted transition before they can expect to be comfortably considered stable investment grade credits, with sufficient levels of self-insurance against external and domestic challenges to financial stability. One of the most pressing challenges for the Fund is to help assist in this process of reducing vulnerability, by promoting an unwinding of these large balance sheet risks and, at the same time, providing a credible form of contingent insurance for those hopefully rare circumstances when its members face extraordinary financing needs. The Fund would be better able to contribute to this process if it were to strengthen its policies in a number of specific areas. My suggestions cover four types of reforms: changes to the substantive focus of Fund policy advice; to the relationship between the Fund and its members in the surveillance framework; to the Fund’s approach to countries undertaking a debt restructuring; and to how the Fund uses its financial resources.