samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
3  Long-term interest rates, income growth and house prices  Favourable economic developments in Norway have had an impact on developments in our property markets. House prices have risen sharply over the past 14 years. Real house prices have almost trebled. This rise has been considerably stronger than earlier. Moreover, the rise in house prices has spanned a long period. With the exception of a few months in 2003, house prices have risen continuously since 1992. This is the second longest period of rising real prices since 1819. Statistics for earlier years do not exist. House prices also rose in the 18 years between 1954 and 1972, albeit at a more moderate pace. BIS Review 15/2007  7  Norway is not the only country where house prices have shown a strong rise over a long period. House price inflation has been particularly high in Ireland and the Netherlands, but Denmark, the UK and Spain also stand out. The countries where house price inflation has been high are the same countries where economic growth has been strongest. Since prices are rising in tandem in many countries, it is natural to look for common driving forces. With increasing cross-border flows of intermediate goods, capital and increasingly so labour, prices will largely reflect growth and competition in the global economy. If capital or labour becomes too expensive in one country, businesses can relocate production. Prices for fixed factors of production, such as property, will on the other hand reflect income developments in different countries.

In 2006, the population increased by more than 40 000 and the number of households by roughly 30 000. Furthermore, migration patterns in Norway follow the business cycle. Migration to densely populated areas is now rising. Demands for high standards and new building regulations have also pushed up housing construction costs and thereby house prices. 10  BIS Review 15/2007  The rise in house prices has been accompanied by a sharp increase in household debt. In Norway, household debt is now almost twice the level of disposable income, and the debt to income ratio is the highest ever. It is higher than in Sweden and the UK, but lower than in Denmark and the Netherlands. Norway is among the countries with the highest share of owner-occupied dwellings, at around 80 per cent. This high proportion partly accounts for the high mortgage debt of households. In recent years, new loan products have also been launched, facilitating mortgage equity withdrawal. Housing wealth has become more liquid. Borrowers have greater scope for choosing repayment profiles. We cannot identify the exact level of household debt that can be sustained over time, but the rapid accumulation of debt increases household vulnerability. Housing investment has been profitable in recent years. Since 1992, the real rise in house prices has averaged 8 per cent, which is markedly higher than for the entire post-war period. At the same time, fluctuations in prices have been considerably smaller. The main determinants of house price inflation have long been income, unemployment, interest rates and residential construction.
To this end, the Bank promotes consumer awareness and financial literacy by disseminating information through quarterly media briefs, road shows, and attendance at annual agricultural shows and trade fairs. The Bank of Zambia also consolidates tariff guides of all deposit taking financial institutions and publishes this information in a form suitable to make immediate and easy comparisons. The purpose of this quarterly publication is to enable customers shop around in order to get value for money from services provided by banks and to cause banks to be competitive in the manner they set fees and charges. Further, through the activities of the Financial Sector Development Plan, the BoZ intends to spearhead the development of a national financial education strategy in order to galvanise the efforts of various stakeholders in the delivery of financial services. The Bank also publishes a lot of information on the banking sector and the economy in general on its website www.boz.zm. I wish to urge all consumers who may have access to the internet, to make it a habit to visit the Bank of Zambia website on a regular basis. Further, the Bank will provide excerpts from the Banking and Financial Services Act to provide some highlights on some of the consumer protection provisions in the Law. I thank you. 2  BIS Review 30/2010

We have been through a period of relatively favorable financial conditions, and the prospect for future stability will depend in part on the degree of care and conservatism market participants bring today to judgments about opportunity and risk management. Thank you. BIS Review 55/2006  3
The most pressing challenge, therefore for the global economy, is to generate an economic recovery that is balanced and sustainable. Although the growth momentum has improved in a number of major economies, the growth has thus far been modest. In addition, weaknesses in several major economies continue to point to a global economy that remains vulnerable to downside risks. While the growth performance in most emerging economies is projected to moderate, collectively emerging market economies remain an important driver of growth of the world economy. A less robust external sector, BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  slower domestic demand and specific domestic factors are amongst the reasons for this growth performance. In Asia, the growth for 2015 is projected to be sustained at 6.4%, while growth in the ASEAN-5 is projected to be in the region of 5%. A further phenomenon affecting the global economic performance is the significant decline in global oil prices. While this has partially offset the weaker-than-expected growth momentum in some of the advanced countries, it has, in different degrees, adversely affected the oil exporting economies resulting in divergent growth performance across and within regions. Overall, however, the global economy is expected to benefit from the lower oil prices. A further recent development is the consequences of the unprecedented and divergent monetary policies being pursued in the major economies which have now resulted in significant policy spillovers to other parts of the world.

ASB is envisioned to be a premier business school that develops transformative and principled leaders that will contribute to a better future and the advancement of the emerging world. Conclusion Let me conclude my remarks. We are now experiencing a phase of modest growth in the global economy, in an environment that is characterised by heightened uncertainty and volatile financial markets. The Malaysian economy has withstood these challenging times, supported by our strong initial conditions and early and comprehensive policy responses. The intrinsic strength of the economy, reinforced with policies to encourage greater investments that would serve to ensure greater economic sustainability for the future. Finally, active regionalisation is an important strategy for Asia to enhance regional economic prosperity. Malaysia actively participates in the efforts to strengthen linkages within the ASEAN community and to creating opportunities to foster greater economic integration. These efforts will place ASEAN on a path to realising its economic potential and enable the region to collectively prosper. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Investors in stock market are interested in businesses that are merging in order to gain size, increase their market share, and squeeze out their smaller rivals. In some cases, this leads to monopolistic power, with ability to take even more advantage of their customers and consumers. 2  BIS Review 43/2006  The younger generation places importance on success measured by numbers and quantity rather than quality, value, and merit. The government, which is supposed to be a role model for the public in general, seems to be concerned only with high GDP growth rates – the higher the better. Issues such as mega projects and the rally in the stock index are more welcomed. All success factors are tied-in with increases in monetary value, or in other words, “only money matters”. Under this environment of “only money matters”, and with growth and profit as key determinants of success, the business sector naturally strives to achieve these goals without regard to what is destroyed or lost along the way. For example, many tourist destinations have been created at the expense of local natural habitats and environments. In order to minimize their own costs, industrial factories release untreated wastewater into our waterways, creating adverse consequences for our communities. In the retail sales business, Western influences have attracted us to large chain stores and franchises, such as Tesco-Lotus supermarkets or 7-11 convenience stores. At the same time, traditional family-run businesses and mom-and-pop stores are fast disappearing.

 Low and stable inflation  Cannot affect employment and production  in the long term…  …except through providing conditions for  a good and sustainable economic development. 8  BIS Review 22/2008  In retrospect…  Not as easy as one might think  Monetary policy must be based on  forecasts  Much will happen between the forecast and the final outcome Uncertain data?  Monetary policy considerations?  Unpredictable events?  Poor forecasting?   What demands can one make?  On average, not poorer accuracy  Consistency between different  variables  The driving forces should be explainable  BIS Review 22/2008  9  Other reasons for deviations  Normally we try to reach the target  within 2 years  May deviate deliberately  Considerations for the real economy  Must be communicated clearly  So how did it turn out? CPI and CPI-forecasts Annual percentage change 3.5  3.5 CPI  3.0  3.0  Forecasts  2.5  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5  1.5  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0  -0.5  -0.5 03  04  05  06  07  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  10  BIS Review 22/2008
On the other hand, there are some constraining factors that hamper digitalization in South East Europe, including Macedonia, such as: the negative effects that the financial crisis had on the ability of banks to innovate, and the local mentality of the population which still does not show a sufficient level of confidence in online activities. Financial services industry in Macedonia is in essence still traditional, conservative industry, but is evolving. Banks strive to keep pace and fit in the new digital era by investing more and more funds in new products and financial innovations, as well as sponsoring software development conferences and new technologies. This is supported by relatively solid infrastructure for digitization in Macedonia which is readily available at satisfactory level. For example, 76% of households in Macedonia had access to internet in 2017 vis-à-vis 85% in the EU. On average, bank deponents have two payment accounts in Macedonia. However, only 7% of payment accounts held by the households can be used for electronic payments, while this share is relatively higher in case of legal entities (29%). The latter initiated 51% of the credit transfer in an electronic way, while the households initiated electronically only 20% of their credit transfers in 2017. The companies usually initiate their payments by using computers, while households rely mainly on computers (92% of electronic credit transfers), mobile phones (7% of electronic credit transfers) and ATM (1% of electronic credit transfers).

First, the Bank of Thailand will ensure ample liquidity in the system in order to accommodate the economic recovery. As policy normalization by the Fed is imminent, the risk of liquidity withdrawal from Emerging Markets increases. We anticipate limited impact on the overall Thai economy as markets have priced in the Fed’s initial hike. Besides, it is widely expected that the Fed fund rates would rise gradually from then on. As for now, despite the slow economic growth in Thailand, the overall credit to the private sector continues to expand at around 5 per cent. Furthermore, enterprises have issued a sizable amount of corporate bonds, leveraging on lower yields compared to last year. Commercial banks’ liquidity position is stable. All these are indications of favorable domestic financing conditions. Should a sudden reversal scenario occurs, the Bank of Thailand would make sure that liquidity will not become an impediment to economic recovery. The Bank of Thailand will also ensure that “cost of funds” is accommodative to the ongoing recovery. The two pre-emptive cuts in the policy interest rate earlier this year, in response to greater downside risks to growth, have eased domestic cost of funds. In addition, low inflationary pressure gives room for monetary policy to remain accommodative. This would ensure that the overall monetary conditions are conducive to the economic recovery. Nevertheless, we keep a cautious eye on risks to financial stability, especially under the prolonged low interest rate environment. Household debt, although it has stabilized, remains high in relation to GDP.
To sum up, financial innovation is on the whole expected to have facilitated the job of monetary policymakers by accelerating the transmission of monetary impulses to the economy. However, in times of stress, when financial sophistication may have gone further and quicker than risk-management practice, the confidence crunch that may ensue paves the way to non-linear responses of the economy that seriously challenge our common understanding of how monetary policy impulses are transmitted to the economy. Challenges for our reliance on monetary indicators As you know, the Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy assigns an important role to money, which is based on the premise that monetary developments provide valuable information on future inflation in the longer run. I would like to ground this with two reasons, a well-known stylised fact and a conjecture. The stylised fact first: there is ample statistical evidence, in the euro area and elsewhere, that low frequency movements in money growth are closely correlated with trend inflation, e.g. for frequencies corresponding to cycles of eight to ten years. The conjecture, then, brings us to an issue that will be tackled this afternoon, namely the flattening of the Phillips curve: changing inflation dynamics, which can partly be viewed as a consequence of a successful anchoring by credible monetary policies, tend to reduce the sensitivity of inflation to incipient imbalances in the economy.

In contrast to the enhancement of the interest rate channel, at least in normal times, financial innovation is traditionally expected to have weakened significantly the so-called bank lending channel. Financial innovation gives firms broader access to securities markets and, as such, makes them less dependent on bank funding. Similarly, banks may be more able to issue debt securities and less dependent on the constraint of funding themselves with secured deposits. Moreover, securitisation by banks was expected to alleviate their liquidity constraints and thus to further weaken the credit channel. Indeed, previous research has generally found that banks have used credit market innovations such as loan sales and securitisation to diversify credit risk exposures and increase lending. However, recent research has highlighted the potential for bank capital regulation and market discipline to shape a bank capital channel of monetary transmission. Viewed as an extension of the standard bank-firms agency problem to the relationship between banks and their creditors, this capital channel could reinforce the standard financial accelerator mechanism. This last concern is closely related to the fears of a credit crunch that have been voiced in the last six months. Current events show that the tide of financial innovation may recede and the future of the originate-and-distribute model of banking is a topic of renewed work. What we see now suggests that an unprecedented reintermediation process is underway, which might imply in the end a strengthening of the credit channel.
On the other hand, the global surplus of savings over investments causes the capital to chase the high yield opportunities, thus increasing asset prices in many countries. An exemplary case may be increases in stock exchange indices, bond prices or real property prices in Anglo-Saxon countries and e.g. in Spain. As a logical consequence, a question arises about how the monetary policy should be conducted in these circumstances, and in particular, whether it should respond to the increase in asset prices despite the fact that inflation of consumer goods and services remains low or very low. Another vital question arises about the appropriate level of central bank interest rates when long-term interest rates remain low, possibly as a result of globalisation. A hot debate accompanies the issue, both among the central 26 27 bankers and among academics. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, in his address 28 last month, presented possible diagnoses regarding the sources of low interest rates on the bond market despite as many as fourteen increases in the central bank references rates. There are at least two explanations of such situation. If the long-term interest rates remain unchanged and the short-term ones increase, this means that either the markets pessimistically assess the perspectives of economic growth or the risk premium related to forward rates decreases; here this may be the inflation risk premium or real interest rates volatility risk premium. Another explanation may be the very effect of global imbalances, i.e.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: The development of Islamic finance Welcoming remarks by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Royal Award for Islamic Finance gala dinner, Kuala Lumpur, 25 October 2010. *  *  *  It is my very great honour to welcome this distinguished audience to this special gala dinner organised by Bank Negara Malaysia and the Securities Commission to commemorate the presentation of the inaugural Royal Award for Islamic Finance. This gala dinner is also held in conjunction with the Global Islamic Finance Forum 2010 that is taking place this week, and which commenced this morning. Tonight, in commemorating this prestigious Royal Award for Islamic Finance, we are blessed and honoured to have Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia Tuanku Haji Abdul Halim Mu’adzam Shah who will graciously confer the winner with the award. Bank Negara Malaysia and the Securities Commission are proud to jointly sponsor this award under the auspices of the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre initiative (MIFC). Allow me to take this opportunity, as Chairman of the MIFC Executive Council, to record our utmost gratitude to the Rulers’ Council of Malaysia for bestowing the Royal title to the award, giving it the highest distinction and recognition. Earlier this year, Malaysia launched a global search for the winner of this auspicious award which seeks to honour the exceptional individual who has made the most outstanding contribution to Islamic finance.
Pablo Hernández de Cos: New digital technologies and the financial system - fintech, crypto and CBDCs Speech by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the 20th Anniversary Conference of the BIS Representative Office for the Americas, Mexico City, 20 November 2022. *** Good morning. I am delighted to be here to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the BIS Representative Office for the Americas. This office was established, inter alia, to promote cooperation among central banks and to develop research activity. I believe these aims are just as relevant nowadays, if not more so, than they were back in 2002. In fact, the issues we have on the agenda today are a good illustration of this need to join forces in analysing and addressing common challenges. Financial innovation, the focus of this session, is certainly a case in point. For years, technology has been an important driver of change in the financial sector but the advent of the digital revolution and the restrictions imposed by the pandemic-related lockdown have certainly helped enhance its role on a much wider scale. It goes without saying that our behavioural patterns are far more digitalised than they were not long ago. And this trend is most surely here to stay. The landscape that lies ahead promises a wealth of benefits for both the financial system in general and for central banks in particular.

For instance, robotisation, alongside the use of AI and ML-related tools, allows increased efficiencies and, when properly conceived, can further help increase financial inclusion, thus fostering growth and employment alike. However, as with any innovation we should not only welcome the potential benefits but also set against them the new and traditional risks that could emerge with these tools. I would like to structure my address today into three interrelated fields: first, the European experience in regulating crypto-assets; second, the Eurosystem experience in developing and providing a digital euro; and third, the promotion of innovation and the Spanish experience with a sandbox. The European experience in regulating cryptoassets Over the last two years or so, cryptoassets have certainly attracted growing attention in the public debate. Their steady, exponential growth was the initial trigger, followed more recently by an equally impressive rapid decline. Yet, despite recent events, cryptoassets and their underlying infrastructure, are another good example of the potential of new technologies to help overcome certain shortcomings in the existing financial ecosystem and, perhaps, even to create new business opportunities. Take the potential possibility to fractionalise real-world assets (especially non-tradable ones), through  1/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  tokenisation, which opens a wide door to, among other things, an expansion of the investor base and broadening the range of collateral that is available and acceptable, beyond traditional items.