samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The process of selecting Turing started when we asked the UK public to “Think Science” and put forward nominations for scientists they would like to see appear on a banknote. We had an overwhelming response, with nearly 250,000 members of the public making a nomination. I’m glad that so many of you wanted to be a part of this process. There's something of the character of a nation in its money, and we are right to consider and celebrate the people on our banknotes. We were aided in the selection process by our Banknote Character Advisory Committee, made up of seven external members and two members of Bank staff. The Committee had the unenviable task of narrowing down the nearly 1,000 unique nominations to a shortlist of just 12. Each of those on the shortlist were hugely significant in their own right, and collectively the shortlist celebrates the important contributions scientists have made to our nation's history, and indeed, our leading position in scientific research. However, it was Alan Turing who was ultimately selected. I’d like to reflect on why that was. I think, at the root, it’s because Alan represents something of which we’re all very proud. Even if we can’t precisely articulate the reason. I believe that part of the answer lies in him being someone who, not content with abstract ideas, applied himself to the physical embodiment of those ideas. And from his sheer force of will, came enormous leaps of progress.

Perhaps it is because we now find ourselves confronted by a pandemic and climate change, and relying greatly on original thought, and scientific innovation, that Turing's values and achievements resonate so strongly with us today. Banknote character ‐ speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England  Page 2  Banknote features And we’ve tried to reflect those many achievements on this new note, which I’m very pleased to now unveil. Turing is perhaps best known for his code breaking work at Bletchley Park during World War Two. Here, far from being the solitary genius he is sometimes caricatured as, Turing led a team of codebreakers who designed a machine which could be used to decipher German military codes, something once thought impossible. This machine was known as The Bombe, and the technical drawings for it are featured here on the note. Until Turing and his colleagues invented this machine, British Intelligence had employed codebreakers to crack these German cyphers manually. But the sheer complexity of the codes meant they had little success. The early computers which Turing helped design would decipher some of these codes in as little as 15 minutes, giving the allied forces an invaluable military advantage. Historians have credited this work that Turing led at Bletchley Park, with shortening the war by as much as 2 years, saving many millions of lives in the process. But Alan Turing’s contributions to the field of computing start even before his wartime efforts.
Any partner of a bank had the duty and right to warn against and take steps to constrain another partner from taking excessive risks, if such risks could bring down not just the culprit but all the partners who were jointly responsible for the well-being of the firm. In contrast, in modern times, banks operate predominantly in the form of limited companies, often listed on stock exchanges, with very diverse public ownership. Senior managers who run the bank do not have most of their personal worth tied up in the firm and the prospects for life-long employment have become few and far between. Nowadays (in particular during the period preceding the GFC), senior bank managers are generally rewarded by a combination of very high salaries coupled with very substantial annual bonuses tied to performance in the preceding year. Even where share options are included in their remuneration packages, the lock up or vesting period is relatively short – just a couple of years at most. The effect of this change is that the previously strong alignment of long term interest between bankers and customers has been materially weakened, leading to the classic situation of an agency problem, with the bank management using depositor funds to leverage up the scale of business while the downside risk that they face in doing so is limited.

The GFC has also undermined the belief that banks can look after themselves in efficient markets and that “de-regulation” and “light touch supervision” must be good as they promote financial innovation and diversity. As a result of these bitter lessons, a series of profound reforms championed by the G20 and the Financial Stability Board, of which the HKMA is a member, have been introduced to make the banking and financial system much more resilient to shocks. An informed banker will tell you that banks nowadays have to comply with a very long list of stringent standards in capital, liquidity, leverage, margining, risk management, derivative trading and reporting, etc. At the same time, there are new and strong measures designed to address misconduct risks, ranging from anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing, front-running, insider trading, mis-selling of financial products, etc. 13. For those bankers who feel disappointed tonight because they cherish the hope that they would learn some clever tricks to get rid of bank supervisors, I owe them an apology. However, the consolation is that, in my view, banking supervision is not an “all or nothing” game. While it is true that the kind of “cozy” or “light touch” supervision that was prevalent before the GFC is now out of the question, there is still a great deal of space in how we calibrate the “intensity” or “intrusiveness” of banking supervision in order for the process to be effective while not creating an undue burden on banks.
Environmental pollution is a typical example of market failure, and central banks should not be at the forefront of efforts to correct such failures. It’s not their job. What’s more, going green implies abandoning market neutrality, a principle which ensures maximum monetary policy effectiveness. It’s hard to imagine central bankers deciding whether bonds issued by a nuclear power station are green or not. And finally, in pursuing such remits, central bankers would again be entering the political arena, where there are many potential political traps that could undermine their independence and decision-making in the areas that need to stay of primary, if not exclusive, importance to them. This is a topic that would certainly warrant a separate presentation. I have tried to show at least briefly that central bank independence may not be as cast in stone as it seemed before the Global Financial Crisis. The new remits that central banks are starting to take on likewise indicate that opinions are changing. After the GFC, the former exclusive focus on price stability was widened to encompass financial stability. And new goals – or at least items – are gradually being added to the contemporary remits of central banks. All this shows that, beneath its seemingly placid surface, the world of central banks is a very lively, dynamically developing and extremely interesting place. What is interesting Czech central bankers at the moment?

How the U.S. outlook evolves in the future is fundamentally tied to the fortunes of the economies around the world. As I look ahead, I’m keeping a keen eye on all the data, both domestic and global, and the implications for our economy. With an uncertain outlook, vigilance and flexibility are essential for achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. Persistently low inflation, heightened uncertainty, and global cross-currents make this a particularly challenging time for monetary policy, and my laser focus is on doing the best we can to support a strong economy and achieve our 2 percent inflation goal. Thank you. 1 Jerome H. Powell, Challenges for Monetary Policy, speech delivered at the “Challenges for Monetary Policy”  symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 23, 2019. 2 See the FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, as amended effective January  29, 2019. 3 International Monetary Fund. 2019. World Economic Outlook Update: Still Sluggish Global Growth. Washington,  D.C., July. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
These decisions have aimed at creating the appropriate conditions for boosting domestic demand, and for the return of inflation to target in the medium term. Moreover, our monetary  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  policy has been transmitted in lower interest rates across all financial instruments in the domestic currency. During the fourth quarter, the transmission was also helped by the shift of the budget deficit financing, from domestic to foreign resources. The shift has increased the liquidity in domestic financial markets significantly and has reinforced the downward trend of their interest rates. Consequently, the average interest rate on loans dropped further during 2015. Combined with the measures taken for reducing non-performing loans, monetary stimuli were reflected in the easing of credit standards. Excluding the effect of write offs from the balance sheets, credit to the private sector grew by ALL 12 billion, or 2.2% in the past year. The monetary policy pass through was reflected also in the reduction of the euroisation in the Albanian economy. At the end of 2015, lek credit to the private sector amounted to 41% of total loans, from 32% at the end of 2010. The Bank of Albania expects credit to perform better in the medium term, but this projection remains largely dictated by the further improvement of the crediting climate in Albania. Against this backdrop, I take the opportunity to reiterate that the national plan for addressing non-performing loans should be considered as a non-negotiable prerequisite for the growth of credit in the future.

And also recall the words of ECB chief economist, Mr Otmar Issing. When he departed the institution, in front of 400 strong audience Mr. Issing reminding us that “Euro is an unfinished project”, stressing that it relied on the monetary pillar, while enhanced fiscal policies and economic cooperation were still needed. Therefore, as the recent developments also show, a more effective economic governance in the EU and the euro area is within reach through fiscal discipline, broader economic oversight, closer coordination, a more robust framework for crisis management, stronger institutions and a decision-making based on clear and strict rules. In the particular case of the interdependent economies across the EU, enhanced governance will boost economic growth and job creation. At the same time, developing a culture of values and professional conduct and ethics can make a very important contribution to the smooth functioning of markets and this is a prerogative of the corporate sector, the private sector in general. I’m confident Europe will find the right way to move forward, given the common cultural values, with measures and policies that should avoid both asymmetric and side effects. We all know how harmful sudden and large capital swings are. Europe’s governance raises also the issue at a more global level. In fact, international affairs and corporate governance are an integral part of this picture.
In future, the ECB will no longer lay down the reference value for the money supply M3 every year but will keep it unchanged for longer periods of time. In communicating its monetary policy decisions, the ECB will, other than in the past, first comment the general price and economic development and only afterwards the development of the money supply. Furthermore, the ECB has confirmed its definition of price stability. It considers price stability to have been achieved when the inflation rate is below 2%. At the same time, the ECB has announced that it will now be aiming at an inflation rate of nearly 2% in the medium term. The National Bank defines price stability in the same way as the ECB. The question thus arises whether we, too, should as a principle aim at the upper level in the range of price stability. We see no reason to make any changes in our concept. Switzerland is a small open economy and the proportion of imported goods in the national consumer price index amounts to 25%. As a result of exchange rate fluctuations, the inflation rates are significantly more volatile than in the euro area. There is therefore no sense in aiming at an excessively narrow range of inflation. Such temporary fluctuations in inflation do not pose a problem for the Swiss economy and should not be countered by means of special monetary policy actions.

The marked deterioration in the labour market makes for more uncertainty and depresses consumer sentiment. Even though there are first signs suggesting a stabilisation of demand for capital goods, corporate investment activity is still at a low ebb. Despite the weaker franc against the euro, incoming orders and the order backlog stayed at an unsatisfactory level up until April. Capacity utilisation in the industry remains inadequate. Swiss gross domestic product is therefore not likely to grow in the second quarter of 2003 either. Any recovery of the Swiss economy is dependent on a sustained increase in growth in exports, which should then lead to a turnaround in the currently still weak capital spending. We expect that this upswing will set in gradually in the second half of 2003 and then continue at a more vigorous pace next year. Private consumption should also pick up a little more. GDP growth is therefore likely to increase somewhat in the second half of the year but will nevertheless remain moderate. In the current year we anticipate real economic activity to stagnate overall. For next year we expect a perceptible economic upswing. We are likely to see a continued rise in unemployment to the end of the year and do not expect the labour market to improve before the middle of 2004. Inflation forecast I shall now turn to the course of inflation and our new inflation forecast.
SPEECH DATE:  7 April 2017  SPEAKER:  Deputy Governor Henry Ohlsson  VENUE:  Swedish Trade Union Confederation, Stockholm  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergst org 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn @ riks ban k.se www.riksb ank.s e  The distributional effects of monetary policy “Price stability is a prerequisite for sustained economic growth as well as full employment and it prevents an arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.” This is how the Riksbank concluded its press release on 15 January 1993, when the inflation target was announced. The link between monetary policy, growth and employment has been very much in focus over the almost 25 years that have passed since then. The distributional effects of monetary policy, on the other hand, have been more or less overlooked, until the question came into the spotlight again in recent years. When the Riksbank decided in early 1993 to begin steering its policy towards an inflation target, it was starting from a period when the major problem had been a high rate of inflation and also a rate of inflation that fluctuated substantially from one year to the next. Having a high inflation rate is as we know a problem i n itself, but it also becomes more difficult for households and companies to make financial decisions, as the real value of savings, investments and debt is affected by large fluctuations in inflation.

I believe that we can learn a lot about the impact of monetary policy on the economy by studying how monetary policy interacts with the distribution of income and wealth. Today I have focused primarily on the question of what distributional effects the expansionary monetary policy conducted by the Riksbank and other central banks  10 I have discussed the factors behind this downturn, what it means for households and companies and the  consequences for monetary policy in an earlier speech, see Ohlsson (2016). 11 [14]  may have had. The debate has so far mainly focused on the effect of rising asset prices. I have tried to nuance this picture and pointed out the importance of actually looking at the total effect of monetary policy on the economy, as well as using the correct point of comparison. My point can be summarised roughly as: without the expansionary monetary policy, growth and employment would have been lower and unemployment would have been higher. This would hardly have benefitted any group in society, and especially not those with the lowest incomes. Assessments of the distributional effects of the expansionary monetary policy should be regarded in the light of this. It is also important to note that no group would have benefitted from a decline in confidence in the inflation target. The whole idea behind the inflation target was that stable prices create good conditions for economic growth and high employment, as it was formulated in the Riksbank's press release in 1993.
In some market segments, especially in more complex ones, a large share of trading volume is attributed to HLIs. However, measured by assets under management, the HLI industry is still small compared to traditional investment funds and the trading books of large international banks. Because of its modest size, its  14  See also The President's Working Group on Financial Markets, 2007, recommendation 5. BIS Review 74/2007  5  heterogeneity and its absence from the field of financial intermediation, the HLI industry is no direct threat to financial stability. Nevertheless, there are two channels through which a shock occuring in the HLI industry could be transmitted to systemically relevant banks. First, banks are exposed to HLIs in their role as counterparties and creditors. Second, in periods of stress, banks may suffer from a lack of market liquidity and a decline in prices, and this may be aggravated by HLIs. Potential regulatory measures should therefore focus on the link between the HLI and the banking industry. Of particular importance is that banks simulate their risk exposures to HLIs and the liquidity situation in periods of stress. We encourage the private sector to take the initiative and come up with measures which will enhance market discipline and strengthen banks' resilience to losses from HLIs and adverse market situations. At present, we do not see a need for direct regulation of HLIs.

Moreover, by helping to spread market and credit risks more widely, they may increase the resilience of large banks. 2  Unlike regulated investment funds, HLIs can use leverage without any restrictions; in other words, they can borrow to increase the capital available for investment. If a HLI had capital of USD 1 and borrowed a further USD 1, it could invest a total of USD 2. In this example, leverage would be 1. In other words, leverage is the ratio of debt to equity capital. 3  McCarthy, 2006. 4  Financial Stability Forum, 2007. 5  De Nederlandsche Bank, 2007, table 1. 2  BIS Review 74/2007  HLIs have proved to be quite robust to stock market drops. In stress situations in the last decade, the HLI industry incurred less losses than stock indices. The exception was the Russian crisis in 1998 with the collapse of LTCM. 3. Are HLIs a threat to financial stability? In this section I analyse first, whether HLIs represent a direct risk to financial stability and second, whether there are transmission channels through which HLIs could indirectly weaken either systemically important banks or the banking sector as a whole. As already mentioned, the size of the HLI industry is comparatively small, from both an individual and an aggregate point of view. Moreover, the HLI industry is highly segmented and there is a broad range of different investment strategies.
Speculation in construction was also less prevalent during the upswing at the end of the 1990s than during the rise in activity a decade earlier. Production of property has been relatively low, and projects have had pre-contracted tenants to a greater extent. In addition, the property crisis at the beginning of the 1990s was affected significantly by the structural changes that occurred during the period. The deregulation of the credit market together with the changes in economic policy required substantial adjustments in the market. So the present situation is not a cause for concern in the same way as the situation at the beginning of the 1990s. Some thoughts on the future The fact that the situation is not a source of concern does not mean that I am predicting a significant recovery in property prices. An increase in economic activity will of course stimulate demand, which sooner or later will apply upward pressure on prices. But at the same time I can see several factors which could restrain a rise in property prices, especially with regard to office premises. BIS Review 38/2003  3  Firstly, there is a risk that demand for office premises will be weaker than the general level of demand in the economy. From the mid 1990s, there was a gradual improvement in economic activity in Sweden, which resulted in higher employment in general, but particularly within office-intensive businesses such as IT and telecommunications.

The transmission of monetary policy The Central Bank of Chile’s monetary policy operates largely through its effects on the cost of lending, as it influences the cost of bank financing. The Bank’s main instrument is the monetary policy interest rate, or MPR. It is worth noting that the level which the Board chooses every month for the MPR represents an objective for the cost of overnight lending between banks. In other words, the Central Bank operates in the interbank market, seeing that the interest rate at which banks lend to and borrow from each other overnight approaches the MPR. Therefore, it is important to understand how this interest rate, which operates in a very specific and well defined market (among banks and for a term of one day only), affects the spending and investing decisions made by households and firms even over several years. The explanation for this phenomenon is that, in normal circumstances, what matters is not only today’s level of the MPR, but the whole future path expected by the market for such interest rate. This is what ultimately affects the entire yield structure. In other words, for a five-year loan, for instance, it is more important for the potential borrower to have an idea of how the MPR will be behaving in the next five years that to know its current level. The above has first-order implications on the conduct, implementation and communication of monetary policy.