samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The IMF estimatesvii that without monetary stimulus in advanced economies, world growth would have been 0.5 percentage point lower in 2019 and 2020 respectively. In the euro area, there have been several convergent estimates as to the impact of monetary policy: viii between 2 and 2.5 percentage points for growth and a cumulative impact of around 1.5 percentage point over four years for inflation. Page 8 of 14  The effects are similar for France. More growth thanks to low rates also means less unemployment: the euro area has created more than 11 million jobs between 2013 and 2019, of which 2-3 million are estimated to stem directly from the effects of monetary policy, based on the latter’s contribution to growth. Source: Eurostat  The effect of low rates can also be analysed according to financial profile of economic agents. Households that need to borrow are winners thanks to the historically low level of borrowing rates, especially in France. Their real estate assets have risen in value, as have share prices. Households, including the least well-off, are benefiting from the pick-up in employment. In contrast, the returns on savings invested in fixed income products have naturally become less dynamic. There are even sometimes fears that we will see negative rates on deposits, a so-called “tax on savings”. In France, that remains and must remain an intellectual hypothesis.

The impact of interest rate changes is transmitted with a lag, but monetary policy gradually delivers results, now as ever. Reducing imbalances and restoring stability is in everyone’s interest. Some strain is inevitable during an adjustment from heavy imbalances, so complaints come as no surprise. But this does not mean that the wrong monetary policy measures are being applied – it could even mean quite the opposite. The Central Bank’s policy rate is high. The press release announcing the Board of Governors’ decision on February 8, which I quoted earlier, stated that the current interest rate may suffice to bring inflation to target within an acceptable period of time. It is impossible to state this categorically now, because it depends on the inflation outlook. What is certain is that the policy rate will be lowered as soon as the Central Bank deems this compatible with the inflation target. It is wrong to claim that this is ruled out because the interest rate differential with abroad must be maintained to prevent turbulence when glacier bonds mature. However, an untimely reduction in the policy rate will benefit no one. It has been claimed that the Central Bank is undermining the króna with its interest policy, which will cause businesses and households to abandon the currency. In this context it must be remembered that without a tight monetary stance and high interest rates, the króna would probably have depreciated by more than it actually did, demand would have grown faster and inflation moved much higher.
The achievement of such a target will be facilitated by continued economic growth resulting from high public and private investment and savings, improving competitiveness, gradually rationalised expenditure which leaves sufficient funds for development work, and reducing the budget deficit resulting in low demand pressure. Needless to say, the Central Bank will actively support strategies that ensure such outcomes. In addition, transparency of monetary policy decisions and operations will be maintained to enhance the policy effectiveness and during the year we will also seek the views and advise of experts in the field of economics and on macroeconomic management in order to benefit by their expertise in our monetary policy decision making process. Further, as done in the past, the policy announcements will continue to be made according to an advance announcement calendar, and the Calendar for 2007 is set out below. Table 3 Monetary policy announcements for 2007  10  Month  Date of Monetary Policy Announcement  January  18 Thursday  February  15 Thursday  March  16 Friday  April  11 Wednesday  May  16 Wednesday  June  15 Friday  July  18 Wednesday  August  16 Thursday  September  14 Friday  October  17 Wednesday  November  16 Friday  December  14 Friday  BIS Review 8/2007  6.

Some of the Primary Dealers who are dealing outside the Scripless Securities Settlement System could have caused potential threats to the system. This may have been particularly due to the fact that using SWIFT was considered to be an expensive method of transferring data. Therefore, the Central Bank has now introduced a low cost method of transferring data using the Wide Area Network connecting them with the Central Bank. Accordingly, all Primary Dealers are now urged to use this method to ensure retail transactions are not proceeded outside the system. Two new laws, namely the Prevention of Money Laundering Act No. 5 of 2006 and the Financial Transactions Reporting Act No. 6 of 2006 have been enacted last year to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing and to strengthen the reporting mechanism for financial transactions. Arising from such initiative, the Financial Intelligence Unit has already been established to investigate and take action to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. The work of the FIU will be further expanded during the year 2007. In line with the global trends, we will be taking steps to further promote corporate governance in the financial sector by implementing several measures. Mandatory corporate governance rules covering important areas of corporate governance principles will be introduced in place of the existing voluntary codes.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth was projected at 4.8 percent in 2010 with Asia and Latin America experiencing strong growth. Africa was also expected to experience robust growth, but growth in Europe was sluggish whilst in the United States, it remained subdued. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  This uneven scenario in global growth has created several downside risks, including risks to the financial sector. There is no guarantee that the problems in the financial sector have been adequately addressed, but there have been concerted efforts to ensure that they do not recur. The introduction of new rules, in particular Basel III is expected to help in this direction, as Basel III will address issues including strengthening risk coverage of capital for banks, the buildup of capital buffers and the introduction of global minimum liquidity standards. However, countries are now realizing that in addition to these new rules there is the need for better supervision and the creation of crisis resolution mechanisms. Your Excellency, distinguished guests, despite the down side risks to the global economy, there is room for optimism which stems from the progress being made to repair and reform the financial sector, including developing macro prudential approaches to limit systemic risks. Monetary policy in the developed economies should remain accommodative in order to serve as the first line of defense in the event of a future shock.

Sound and robust risk data aggregation capabilities and risk reporting practices have become even more important since the global financial crisis, which demonstrated that an institution’s ability to manage risk-related data has a significant impact on its overall risk profile and the sustainability of its business model, especially under stress conditions. The presence of board members with IT expertise has increased significantly in banks, allowing them to be more aware of this shortcoming and to make better-informed decisions to implement an effective RDAR framework across the institution. Additionally, some institutions have invested in strengthening their processes, by including dynamic dashboards in risk reports, which allow for a deeper dive into several types of risk. In conclusion, although it has been in the supervisory spotlight for several years, awareness of the benefits of good risk data management has shown limited progress in institutions. Thus, the accuracy and timeliness of internal reporting still needs to be improved, as not doing so will limit management bodies’ ability to make the right strategic decisions. Conclusion The board’s oversight role is one of the core elements of good governance. Adequate skills, challenge and independence are three factors that ensure good governance of our institutions, and it is therefore helpful if both their business model and their risk management are geared towards making them robust and profitable. 5
But I suspect he would have recognised well the way in which financial markets and the institutions that support them can generate and amplify stress in the financial system and how they can be subject to runs, fire-sales and contagion. This is a lesson we had to relearn, very painfully, eight years ago. The result has been a major programme of reform of the regulation of wholesale financial market firms and of some aspects of markets themselves. We are still in the process of implementing that reform programme. Again, I do not want to go into detail tonight. But, looking forward, two particular points are worth stressing. First, as far as the Bank is concerned, there will be no going back to the future. The great financial crisis reminded us that the failure of the financial system, though rare, is possible. Contrary to the received wisdom pre-crisis, we learned that greater scale, complexity and sophistication of financial markets can make the system more not less vulnerable. And it also taught us again the cost of systemic failure. . 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  8  Or to put it in banking terms, we were reminded brutally not only of the probability of default but also of the social and economic loss given default. For those charged with protecting financial stability, this lesson shifted our tolerance for risk. We are now much more aware of risks further into the tail of the distribution. And much more concerned to manage them.

Challenges for financial markets Speech given by Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Member of the Financial Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Authority Board  Association for Financial Markets in Europe Annual dinner, London Thursday 3 November 2016  1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  I am very pleased to have the opportunity to speak tonight at the annual dinner of the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME). The Bank of England has throughout its history had a close association with financial markets and with the institutions that support them. Indeed, the Bank was instrumental in the creation in 1914 of one of AFME’s distant ancestors – the quaintly named Accepting Houses Committee. The outbreak of the First World War and consequent disruption of international payments threatened to bring down the London markets and the international merchant banks that supported them. The Bank enabled a moratorium on war disrupted payments and offered to purchase the war disrupted bills. One contemporary historian of the City hailed this as “the greatest evidence of London’s strength as a financial centre that could have been desired or dreamt of”. 1  Over the following century, the Accepting Houses Committee became the forum of the City’s most influential merchant banks; its members enjoyed the implicit backing of the Bank of England. The Committee eventually became part of the London Investment Banking Association which merged with the European part of SIFMA to create AFME in 2009.
Caleb M Fundanga: Brief background to the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, as background to the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey, Lusaka, 8 November 2006. *  *  *  Hon. Ministers and Deputy Ministers; Secretary to the Treasury Hon. Members of Parliament; Your Excellencies and Members of the Diplomatic Corps; Representatives of Development Agencies; Chief Executives of Banks, Regulatory Authorities and Financial Institutions; Distinguished Invited Guests; and Ladies and Gentlemen. On behalf of the Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP) Secretariat, it is my pleasure to present a brief background to the FinScope Zambia 2005 Survey. Ladies and Gentlemen - In recognition of the strategic importance of the financial sector to the country’s development and poverty reduction efforts, in 2003 Government launched a project to formulate the first Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP) which was approved by Cabinet in 2004. This followed the joint World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Financial Sector Assessment Programme (FSAP) report of 2002, which identified various weaknesses in the Zambian financial system including the following: •  Unstable macro-environment  •  Low financial intermediation  •  No formal structures for a financial safety net  •  Poor credit culture  •  Weaknesses in the regulation and supervision of non-bank financial institutions. Since the approval of the FSDP in 2004, a number of weaknesses have been addressed.

Since May this year, many SMEs and think-tanks suggested that Hong Kong should develop a market-oriented platform to guarantee SME loans upon the phasing out of the Special Loan Guarantee Scheme. This suggestion has gained a good measure of support from the market and society at large. The HKMC therefore immediately launched an in-depth study and market consultation exercise. In mid-November, the HKMC announced that it will launch the SME Financing Guarantee Scheme on 1 January next year. The Scheme will offer extensive and flexible guarantee coverage to help the SMEs in Hong Kong obtain more sustainable bank financing for their daily operations or purchase of equipment etc. Also, this Scheme will help banks manage their lending risks more effectively – the banks can meet the financing needs of the SMEs without having to warehouse excessive credit risks. Undoubtedly, the Scheme will bring benefits for the SMEs, banks, economy and employment in Hong Kong. We do not expect an overwhelming demand for the new Scheme initially. However, the global market conditions change and turn all the time. There is a high degree of volatility and uncertainty in the future. The business and financing environments for the enterprises could easily come under stress and the SME Financing Guarantee Scheme will then play an important role to help banks maintain a steady and sustainable flow of financing to the SMEs. To promote the launch of this new Scheme, the HKMC will offer a special discount for applications filed on or before 30 June 2011.
Andrew Bailey: The future of banking regulation in the UK Speech by Mr Andrew Bailey, Executive Director of the Bank of England, at the British Bankers’ Association Annual Banking Conference, London, 17 October 2012. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to be here this morning. I am going to talk about what has become the hot topic of the time, namely the role of bank regulation in macroeconomic policy. But before I do so, just a few words on progress towards creating the new system of regulation in the UK. The Treasury announced on Monday that they expect that the new regime will formally come into existence at the start of April next year. I expect that the PRA’s new home, near to the Bank of England in Moorgate, will be occupied by our supervisors shortly before then. On Monday, we published two important documents on the PRA’s approach to supervision, covering banks and insurers respectively. Next Monday, we are holding conferences at the QE2 Centre, covering banks in the morning and insurers in the afternoon. Please do come along. You can access the documents now on the Bank of England and FSA websites. I should add that Martin Wheatley and his colleagues in the FCA-to-be have also issued an approach document this week and are holding a number of events too. We are doing our best to keep you entertained! Let me turn now to the issues around bank regulation and macroeconomic policy.

Svein Gjedrem: Risk and growth in the financial industry Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of the Central Bank of Norway, at the Annual meeting of the Norwegian Savings Banks’ Association, Bergen, 27 October 2005. The speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or the monetary stance. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The charts in pdf-format  can be found on the Central Bank of Norway’s website. References can be found on the Central Bank of Norway’s website. *  1. *  *  Introduction  Over the past decades, debt and financial assets have risen sharply worldwide. The financial system serving lenders and borrowers has also expanded. The number of participants in these markets has soared, some new operators have appeared and a broad range of instruments has emerged. Growth in financial markets provides the basis for more efficient use and distribution of capital and for improved risk management. Developments in the financial industry have thus contributed to stronger and more stable economic global growth over the past decades. New instruments have increased banks’ possibilities of managing risk, among other things credit risk associated with lending. In many countries, growth in household borrowing has been high for several years. In Norway, mortgage loans account for an increasing share of banks’ balance sheets. I will now discuss different aspects of this. 2.
But it also presents us with many challenges: First, we must remember that our petroleum resources are part of our national wealth. When oil is extracted and sold, natural assets are transformed into financial wealth. Norway’s national wealth belongs not only to our generation, but also to future generations. This means that our petroleum wealth must be equitably distributed between generations. The authorities must therefore exercise fiscal discipline, taking into account long-term considerations. Moreover, the size of the cash flow from petroleum activities varies considerably. If petroleum revenues were to be used as they accrue, this would lead to considerable fluctuations in demand in the Norwegian economy, amplifying cyclical fluctuations as a result. Third, the use of petroleum revenues will have an impact on competitiveness in Norwegian business and industry. A high level and wide fluctuations in the use of petroleum revenues will have a negative impact on the operating parameters for internationally exposed industries. It is important that we succeed in maintaining an industry structure that promotes learning, innovation and development. The Government Petroleum Fund was established in 1990 with a view to safeguarding long-term considerations in the use of petroleum revenues. In March 2001, the fiscal rule and new guidelines for monetary policy were introduced. The fiscal rule implies that the central government budget deficit shall be equivalent over time to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. The new guidelines for economic policy received broad support in the Storting.

In New Jersey, private-sector job growth was quite robust in the fourth quarter, despite a small dip in December. New York State, in contrast, slowed more in December and has seen only minimal job gains since we last met in August. 2  For more information, see Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators on the New York Fed website. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Job growth in the region no longer appears to be out-performing the nation, and regional unemployment rates remain unacceptably high: at around 9 percent in both New York City and New Jersey, and close to 8 percent across New York State. Turning to New York City, the local job market, which had been quite resilient during and after the recession, has lagged recently – partly reflecting weakness in the city’s securities industry. Still, the Big Apple has recovered over half of the jobs lost during the recession, whereas the nation has recouped only about a third of its job losses thus far. Despite recent weakness in the securities industry, other industries, such as tourism, and professional and business services, have fared reasonably well in the City. Weakness in financial activities industry – and securities in particular – is worrisome because this sector has tended to drive overall local growth and provide a major source of tax revenue for the city and the state. The New York Fed also conducts the Empire State Manufacturing Survey to track conditions for regional manufacturers.
This shock and the negative effects that it brought upon the economy and the central bank policies have been beyond comprehension. The authorities are feeling the difficulty of performing their task in the zero lower bound or very close to it. In this respect central banks have lost the traditional instruments of monetary policy and are reverting to money as the instrument of monetary policy. The shift has been significant not only in size but also in concept. The leading central banks in developed economies, the ones which set the trends, are under process of reviewing their objectives and monetary policy. Using support of research analysis and conclusions they are eventually rewriting monetary economics by giving central banks new instrument in the form of permanent use of the central bank balance sheet as a tool of monetary expansion. However, while implementation of balance-sheet strategies is easy to implement and deal with for developed countries central banks, same policies might not be easily adaptable and applicable by developing economies. Narrow and shallow capital markets, problems of financial inclusion and financial education, stressed private, public and fiscal balance-sheets and history, remind us of several potential risks that such policies can have for the highly dollarized/euroized economies of South-East Europe. Yet in the presence of current constrains faced by monetary policy we have to react and to find new ways to support the economy.

We can make good use of this information as a starting point for the design and implementation of a national strategy of financial education and financial inclusion. They are both important objectives for the central bank. These two topics are set to gain central stage following the emergence and growing trend toward digitalization, emergence of digital financial instruments and potential introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies. I am sure that as financial inclusion and financial education gain more attention in the mainstream central bank agenda, we will see these topics discussed in our future workshops. My most important recommendation is that research produced at the central bank, remains close to central bank interest and has practical value for policy and decision making to achieve their objective. It must flow naturally into policy making and provide solid foundations for 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  monetary and financial stability policy. Finally, I am proud to see how our researchers have progressed in the adoption of the most sophisticated techniques of research. Simultaneously, I am glad to see that the adoption of research methods has crossed the boundary of research department and is spreading well into other departments. Our economists are doing independent research work in support of their day to day activity. This is the result of our continuous efforts to increase the impact of research in policymaking.