samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Judging from the surveys we make of inflation expectations, monetary policy in this respect has a very high level of credibility. •  The Riksbank also has the task of safeguarding financial stability. We see no problems with regard to financial stability at present. The fact that we emphasise developments in house prices and indebtedness does not concern financial stability. It is because we are concerned over how future inflation and growth might be affected by a possible sudden correction in house prices. Finally, I would like to stress that the monetary policy framework has functioned well. This is indicated in particular by the fact that inflation expectations are firmly anchored around two per cent. There are no signs in the financial markets that monetary policy is regarded as unclear. However, this does not mean we can rest on our laurels. We have one of the most open and transparent central banks in the world and we wish this to continue. The Riksbank’s forecasts assume, as I mentioned earlier, that the repo rate will develop in line with market expectations. I have raised the question of possibly going one stage further and instead reporting the Riksbank’s own forecast of interest rate developments, as they do in, for instance, Norway and New Zealand. Personally, I see it as quite natural that we should make forecasts of repo rate developments in the same way that we forecast a number of other variables.

Stefan Ingves: The economic situation in Sweden Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a meeting arranged by Handelsbanken, Malmö, 12 October 2006. *  *  *  Introduction Thank you for the invitation to come here and speak in Malmö! It gives me great pleasure to visit different parts of the country and explain what we do at the Riksbank. Today I intend to begin with a few words on the current situation in the Swedish economy and on inflation prospects. The Riksbank will provide a more in-depth analysis when the next Inflation Report is published, two weeks from now. I also intend to describe in more general terms how we conduct our monetary policy, that is, the Riksbank’s monetary policy strategy. In connection with this I shall take the opportunity to discuss the role of asset prices in the analyses. It has sometimes been claimed in the general debate that the Riksbank puts too much focus on asset prices and too little on inflationary pressures from the labour market, and I would like to refute this claim. I shall then briefly discuss financial stability, an area in which I have been active for many years, both at the Riksbank and during my time at the IMF in Washington. My hope is that you will today gain an idea of now we think and work to attain our statutory objective, maintaining price stability in Sweden. Let me begin with my views on the current economic situation.
I expect that this dynamic process will accelerate through work within the AIG, with supervisors outside of the Committee, and by banks in the months and years ahead. Risk management and complex products Our response to changes in risks must also be dynamic, and it is to this aspect that I would like to turn now. In recent years, we have seen tremendous growth in the derivative markets, which include a range of quite complex products. In addition, these markets have attracted new participants, in particular hedge funds, whose risk profiles and exposures may not be transparent to regulators or to other market participants. While these developments have had the beneficial effect of diversifying and spreading credit risk, they have also posed new risks. I would like to briefly discuss steps that both supervisors and the industry are taking to promote better management of these risks, and to ensure that supervision keeps track with market developments. Supervisory efforts One important area where we are working within the Basel Committee to promote sound risk management practices is through a review and, if necessary, update of the Committee’s 1999 paper on sound practices for banks’ interactions with highly leveraged institutions. As part of this review, we are looking at emerging best practices related to banks’ interactions with credit derivatives markets and hedge funds. In addition, we have had informal discussions regarding the potential impact on bank safety and soundness of prime brokerage activities.

As regards expenditure, 28% of interviewees live in households whose spending has outpaced income over the past 12 months, a percentage that is in line with the average observed in OECD and EU countries. 51% financed this shortfall resorting to savings, and 35% through informal credit (friends, employer, etc.). As in the foregoing cases, differences were observed in terms of educational level and level of income. As both levels increase, the percentage of instances in which spending has exceeded income diminishes and the percentage of cases where greater spending is financed with savings increases. Undoubtedly, financial behaviour does not depend solely on financial literacy, but is also influenced by other circumstances; but, in light of some of the above-mentioned results, I do believe there is clearly room for improvement in the field of financial education in Spain, and that we should continue to strive in this direction. Financial education in a context of technological innovation and developments Giving priority attention to financial education is, moreover, particularly significant in the current context of financial innovation. Technological developments are changing the way in which customers relate to financial institutions and how they take up financial products. And this, though it has attendant advantages, also entails risks. Greater financial culture, greater awareness of the new reality and a greater development of the general public’s digital competences can help mitigate these risks. 5/7  I would like to refer, in particular, to three examples of these risks.
LEVERAGING BETTER OUR CURRENT ECONOMIC SUCCESS  ADDRESS BY DR MARIO VELLA GOVERNOR, CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA DELIVERED DURING THE IFS MALTA ANNUAL DINNER  01 DECEMBER 2017  Dear President and Members of the Committee of the Institute of Financial Services (IFS) Malta, distinguished guests, personally and on behalf of the Board of the Central Bank of Malta, I thank you for this annual traditional opportunity to address this distinguished audience and, through it, all stakeholders. Also my personal and institutional welcome to the representatives of overseas professional bodies who are with us tonight, the London Institute of Banking and Finance, the Global Association of Risk Professionals, and the European Banking and Financial Services Training Association. You evidently hold IFS Malta in high esteem. So do we. Mr President, we are pleased to hear about the many initiatives being undertaken in the area of financial services education and commend the Institute for its ongoing commitment to the professional development and up-skilling of financial services practitioners. This is definitely a positive contribution to the sustainability of our dynamic sector, and one we commit ourselves to support effectively. The Central Bank of Malta is a long-standing partner of the Institute. Rest assured that we will continue to offer our support wherever possible. Tonight’s event has become an important date in the calendar of key stakeholders in our country’s economy, particularly but not only in the financial services sector.

As the change in indirect taxes and administered prices has a direct effect on domestic inflation, their catching-up adjustment should be effected before the years during which they will be used as basis for evaluation of compliance with the Maastricht criteria – i.e. before 2008. From this perspective, earlier timing of harmonization of some excise taxes is a step to facilitate significantly the performance on the inflation criterion, as it would eliminate the proinflationary impact of an increase in these taxes in the years in which such evaluation will be made. In conclusion, I would like to sum up that, in the light of the rapid change in the structure of our economy, the stable macroeconomic policy pursued by the Government and the BNB, and the prospects for EU membership, the concerns, expressed in the leaflet for this Conference, of possible overheating of the economy and the risks this entails for its stability, seem rather exaggerated. The country’s external imbalance financed by capital inflows is more of a signal of stability, credibility and potential for development of our economy. Of course, the economic policy makers are not and may not be complaisant. The challenges Bulgarian economy is facing are well recognized, and there is the will to take all the necessary measures to preserve the stability and growth in the economy. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. BIS Review 22/2006  3
It is also possible that, in addition to the distribution  8  of the costs and benefits of the reserves, which is built into the current regulatory framework for the financial interactions between the Treasury and the Central Bank, ways could be found for banks and even other financial institutions to participate in the cost of financing the reserves, as these institutions enjoy the benefits of them, including better credit ratings and lower foreign financing costs. The worst that we could do in this context would be to sacrifice the long-term benefits of price stability and economic equilibrium in order to increase the Central Bank’s profits in the short-term. The monetary policy framework I would now like to turn to two related topics: the pros and cons of independent monetary policy, on the one hand, and possible changes to the monetary policy framework and implementation, on the other. I must be brief because the clock is ticking, but I am more than willing to answer questions about this and other points later on. “Is independent monetary policy too costly?” is the topic of this meeting. Presumably, the question implied is whether the benefits of such monetary policy are outweighed by the costs. To my mind, this question can hardly be answered without reference to the various options available because we must have some sort of currency regime, and all of them have pros and cons. If there is a currency union, it is the monetary policy of the union’s central bank that carries the day.

There is no doubt that tremendous efforts have been made in the wake of the financial crisis to reach our objective of financial stability, providing the policymakers with additional tools to build-in robustness into the global financial system, increase the loss absorption capacity of financial institutions and infrastructures, and limit the scope for contagion while new approaches to prevent systemic risk have been developed, namely macroprudential policies. However, due to the magnitude of the task, its difficulty and its complexity, global regulators had to proceed with a sequential approach, starting by the banking system where their knowhow was the best, and expanding gradually a framework to the rest of the financial system in concentric circles. As a consequence, we are currently facing three challenges that I would like to focus on: keeping the momentum for reforms, allowing for the diversity and ensuring the robustness of the global financial system. 1. Keeping the momentum  After such a long and intense conference day, you might already feel a sentiment of regulatory fatigue! Consequently, you might appreciate the feeling of regulators and financial intermediaries after more than 8 years of intense regulatory developments and debates! And yet, the latter are not completed nor their implementation! Banking regulation, which is almost complete now, will only come into force in 2018–2019, even though it has already been largely factored in by markets and banking institutions. But regulation is still under development for the rest of the financial system.
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Insights from the financial market in 2015, expectation and direction going forward Opening speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Annual Dinner of Persatuan Pasaran Kewangan Malaysia (PPKM), Kuala Lumpur, 13 November 2015. *  *  *  This annual dinner is an important event for it presents an opportunity for us and the market to reflect upon all the challenges in the financial market, and draw lessons as we move into the new operating year. The year 2015 has been a very interesting year for all of us here, industry players and regulators alike. During the year, we witnessed significant capital outflows as markets responded to the global economic developments. In particular, every commentary or data release hinting at policy normalization in the US was met with gyrations in financial markets. Emerging currencies, felt the brunt of such volatility, especially commodity exporting countries given the significant decline in commodity and energy prices and moderation in growth for the China’s economy. For Malaysia, we saw ringgit weakened as much as 18%, while in the bond market, we saw relative stability even though yields went up by 30 to 50 bps given by the negative sentiment in the domestic and global markets. Insights from the financial market in 2015 In the midst of all the global economic uncertainty and financial market volatility, I would like to highlight some observations and comments.

In fact, non-residents only hold 29% of government securities which should include the Sukuk or MGII. Furthermore, most of the outflows by non-residents arise from the sale of short-term bonds associated with short-term views while investors of Malaysia’s long-term bonds have remained steadfast in their investment holdings. We also observe since October 2015 the non-resident portfolio flows has becomes positive. In 2015, as part of our effort to improve transparency, we have embarked on an initiative to gather statistics on the ultimate beneficiary owners of Malaysian bonds and sukuks to give the market a clearer picture on the types and behavior of investors in our market. Preliminary data showed that of the total non-resident holders of Malaysian debt securities, 70–80% were stable long-term investors while the remaining minority was short-term investors. We are now looking at measures on how we can enhance the disclosure requirements of our bond holdings to be even more transparent so that our financial market would be on par if not better than the best practices adopted by advanced markets. Over the years, we have liberalized the foreign exchange administrative rules to promote competitiveness and reduce cost of doing business, attract foreign investors and create business opportunities for our local players. Ringgit bonds were allowed to be traded freely offshore, with some restrictions placed on ringgit funding and FX derivatives markets to contain speculation, with the aim to ensure financial stability. An unintended consequence of this liberalization was the emergence of offshore transactions relating to Ringgit such as NDF and NDIRS.
While striving for economic growth, we must not forget that inclusive growth is a prerequisite for sustainable development. I could not agree more with the United Nations’ 2030 agenda for sustainable development that “no one should be left behind”6. Thus, various measures to promote financial inclusion have been implemented and many more are in the pipeline, to ensure that everyone has access to financial services at fair prices. More importantly, empowering people with financial literacy and financial planning capability is an important element of inclusive growth. Ladies and gentlemen, Sustainable economic growth requires concerted effort from all parties involved. Initiatives from the banking sector alone will not be sufficient. The capital market and exchange can and should play an important role. I am very pleased to see that the agenda of this year’s WFE conference is well in line with the aforementioned three imperatives. It is encouraging that the exchange industry is working together to find meaningful ways to boost productivity through fostering growth and embracing new technology; build immunity from mitigating emerging risks and building resilience; and promote inclusivity via increasing retail investor participation. WFE has shown, once again, its commitment to support the development of fair and efficient markets, embracing the role of exchanges to facilitate the efficient allocation of resources and thus promote the real economy and the well-being of the people at large. Ladies and Gentlemen, Our world is rapidly changing.

While the adjustments in housing market are also ongoing in Europe, and some European Banks have reported losses in CDOs, the impact on economic activities is expected to be more limited. For example, Consensus Forecasts in February, revised downward the Euro Zone’s GDP growth for 2008 by only 0.3 percentage points from December compared with a 0.5 percentage point downward revision for the US. For Southeast Asia, the impact is also forecasted to be limited. Latest consensus forecasts for Southeast Asia’s GDP growth is 5.7 percent for 2008, declining slightly from the forecast of 5.9 percent in December last year. These forecasts, together with the latest data, suggest that, in the short-term, things will likely get worse before they get better, and the slowing of growth in the US will impact growth globally. The key question, at this time, is how deep can things get before we see a turnaround. This is definitely an important, but a difficult question to answer. Market  BIS Review 29/2008  1  participants as usual will have a range of views, and I personally do not intend to offer another prediction. Instead, I want to share with you my thoughts on the current developments and on what this will mean for Thailand. To begin, one context that I think is useful in understanding the current turmoil is the unwinding of the global imbalance, triggered by corrections in the US housing market that began in 2006, and is now ongoing.
Some issues which may warrant closer examination include: •  Ensuring that resources in the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility – our main lending instrument for developing countries – remain adequate to meet future demands;  •  New ways to help low-income countries deal with economic shocks;  •  In the case of low-income countries which do not need or want IMF lending, how to enhance the IMF’s role in signaling to others the strength of these countries’ policies;  •  The role of the Fund in supporting low-income countries’ poverty reduction strategies; and  •  Our relationship with donors and aid agencies. As a partner of the 2002 Monterrey Consensus, the IMF is committed to supporting countries in their efforts to reduce poverty and reach the Millennium Development Goals. Our unique position gives us the potential to contribute to building both pillars of the Monterrey Consensus. On one side, we can work with countries to design policies and build institutions that will help them grow out of poverty. On the other, we can advocate for more and better international support, and help with its coordination. Nevertheless, examining the issues highlighted earlier will help frame a better understanding of the areas of low-income country work for which the IMF can take responsibility, and those that will fall to other institutions and actors. It would be helpful to have greater definition in this area as we approach the U.N. Millennium Summit in September. Fifth, the IMF’s internal governance and management.

By helping to build institutional and human capacity for the making of sound economic policies, IMF technical assistance contributes to the building of strong economies and stable growth. The IMF’s purposes, and its operational activities, were therefore designed with a key objective in mind – that is, the fostering of healthy national economies, linked by finance and trade, as the foundation for a robust global economic system. I think it correct to say that this vision for international peace and stability has produced remarkable results, for the past fifty years have been a period of growing economic prosperity and freedom. Global per capita income has more than tripled, and most of the world has experienced major improvements in literacy and life expectancy. Among the biggest gainers have been the developing nations, home to half of the world’s population. Many of them have been quick to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the global economy, especially during the last two decades. These countries – whose ranks include Brazil, Chile, China, India, Korea, and Mexico – were able to double their share in world trade, raise per capita incomes, and lift millions out of poverty. Their experience demonstrates that integration into the global economy can bring major benefits. The IMF’s evolution The world has witnessed many changes and developments – in technology, politics, culture, as well as economics – over the years, and the IMF has adapted itself accordingly.
Stable economic policy interacts with structural changes and IT In order to see why the Swedish economy is doing better than it has been for a very long time, we need to consider how economic policy has been realigned in the past decade and a half. Credit and currency markets have been deregulated, the tax system has been reformed, components of the system of transfers have been modified and competitive pressure has increased. All this has helped to improve the workings of our economy. Moreover, price stability is now monetary policy’s statutory objective and it has been explicitly assigned to what has become even a formally independent central bank. Low inflation is admittedly not an ultimate objective for economic policy in general. It serves instead as an instrument. All those who experienced the economic situation in Sweden in the 1970s and 1980s know that inflation can never be associated with an economic development that is lastingly favourable. That is why price stability is an integral part of any economic policy’s strategy for rising prosperity and high employment. In order to provide a stable and credible framework for the new direction of economic policy, the government budget was successfully consolidated. Difficult political considerations and decisions were involved in this process and opinions may differ about particular items or aspects of the consolidation policy; but that does not detract from the main impression of a successful outcome in the sense that economic policy’s commitment to stability was rendered credible.

To date, however, the economic upswing in Sweden suggests that the labour market is functioning better than one might expect. That in itself is a sign that the output gap has been larger than estimated earlier, so that our economy has coped for a time with higher GDP demand. It is conceivable that the crisis in the early 1990s taught firms that they can, in fact, cut costs if they need to. That may mean that their propensity to recruit now that demand for goods and services is rising is stronger than might have been feared. Moreover, various labour market measures, the willingness of the parties to improve the wage bargaining system and, not least, the real wage increases in recent years, may have strengthened the propensity to look for work as well as the possibility of finding it. Of course, this process cannot continue for ever. Sooner or later, shortage figures will show that there is simply no additional labour available. To date this year the number in employment has risen by 70,000 from the year before, which is over 50,000 persons more than the underlying increase in labour supply. Unemployment is accordingly falling and more and more persons who did not seek work actively before are now available in the labour market. While that is a good thing, the time will come - though when that will be is not certain - when the available supply of labour is smaller than the jobs  3  BIS Review 84/2000  that are vacant.