samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
With assets managed by SWFs estimated at 3,000 billion dollars, this category of investors represents twice the value of assets managed by hedge funds. 1 It is estimated that they will continue to grow in the future, to reach from 12,000 to 15,000 billion dollars, depending on estimates, in 2015. Consequently, they play and will continue to play an increasing role in the global financial system. As SWFs have long-term and diversified investment strategies and are not subject to sudden fund withdrawals by customers, they are usually considered to have a stabilising effect on the global financial system, despite their lack of transparency. Consequently, developed countries have an interest in attracting their investments. During the crisis, the behaviour of SWFs has differed according to the country of origin, but in general, it appears that their tendency to invest more than before in domestic and regionally close markets during the first stage of the crisis has come to an end, and that they have now resumed investing principally in OECD economies. 2 This is particularly true for Gulf sovereign funds, where diversified domestic investment opportunities are scarcer than for Asian sovereign funds, for example. In the first quarter of this year, Europe was by far the leading destination for Middle-Eastern and North African SWF investment. 3 Muslim countries, in particular oil-exporting ones, represent as much as 51% of total sovereign wealth funds’ assets.

Banking services coverage: international comparison 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0  Adult population with debit or credit card (percent) 90  Debit  Adult population with savings in financial institutions (percent)  Credit  80 Saving accounts (% of pop > 15 yo)  70 Cards (% of pop > 15 yo)  Accounts in financial institutions (% of pop > 15 yo)  Adult population with any type of account in a financial institution (percent)  60 50 40 30 20 10 0  OECD High Middle Low  LAC  OECD High  Low  Slide 7  50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 LAC  OECD High  Low  All figures at the end of 2014. Source: SBIF (2016), “Financial Inclusion Report in Chile 2016”. [SLIDE 7] In middle and low-income countries, the proportion of population holding any type of account in a supervised financial institution under supervision amount to 37% and 20%, respectively. These figures are far below the 92% and 90% of OECD countries and high-income countries. The use of bank-intermediated debit and credit cards and savings in financial institutions follows a similar pattern. [SLIDE 8] Insurance services contribute to deepen the financial system due to their long-run investment perspective. Both life and non-life insurance is far less extended in emerging markets compared to high-income OECD countries.
In 2016 intra-regional trade contributed USD521 billion or 23.5% of total trade. IntraASEAN investments rose to a record level of USD24 billion in 2016 and accounted for 25% of total FDI flows into the region. Within the region, Indonesia and Thailand are important partners to Malaysia both in trade and direct investments where there is continuous growth propelled by inter-company linkages and cross-border investments. In 2016, Malaysia shared a bilateral trade volume of USD13.8 billion with Indonesia and USD13 billion with Thailand. However, only 5.8% and 11.4% of our trade with Indonesia and Thailand, respectively were settled in local currencies. This is an enormous business opportunity for the financial sector, which has yet to be realised. Similarly, on the investment front, Malaysia has invested USD13 billion and USD2 billion of direct investments into Indonesia and Thailand, as at second quarter of 2017. Indeed, the completion and enhancement of the Frameworks is an important step towards the use of local currencies to support cross-border settlements for trade and direct investments among the three countries. It is an opportunity to mitigate the impact of volatilities in major trading currencies on regional trade and investment activities. We can recall the Global Financial Crisis, where the tightening of global US dollar liquidity was a contributor to the 19% contraction of total trade and 11.5% contraction of total inward FDI into the region.

The competition between the various factions can lead to an inefficient tapping of natural resources and an unsound use of revenues. The spirit of enterprise, talent and energy in both business and political life are used to acquire a share of this income rather than to foster productive activity in both the public and private sector. For an individual company or a group, this activity may seem rational - a 10 per cent chance to win the jackpot could be better than investing in a business that yields an ordinary return. This may have damaging consequences for a country. A sociological explanation is that easily acquired wealth weakens the incentive for innovation and work. We feel that we have become rich and want to live the good life. A possible economic explanation is that a large and broad sector that is exposed to international competition fosters learning and development. Without such a sector, the competitive intensity in the economy may decline and the ability and willingness to be innovative may be impaired. We must be cautious about drawing final conclusions based on historical comparisons. We would prefer to assume that we are managing our wealth better. However, it may be of particular relevance to highlight three critical pre-conditions for succeeding in this. First: Decision-making forms and processes in the political and economic arena must provide effective protection against the acquisition by interest groups of the right to use large shares of the petroleum wealth.
This institution could consist of a democratically legitimate euro area “Finance Minister”. It could also – subject to certain conditions – have a European stabilisation budget to enable it to cushion any economic shocks in Member States; one possible solution, which remains to be discussed, could be a shared unemployment insurance scheme, as suggested by Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan. * * * Allow me to conclude with the words of Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, that great Tuscan and President of 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  the Italian Republic, who unfortunately passed away just recently. “What has been achieved [in Europe], in both the economic and political spheres, seems too important each time to be put at risk: it is so important to give governments and citizens the courage to make further steps forwards […]. In this sense, the creation of the euro is not only an end point but also a starting point.” The euro has never been easy but it is not a self-imposed straitjacket – rather it is a political and historical ambition. In these troubled times for Europe, we need both to buttress this vital asset and to build on it for the future. We have to do it for your generation, because you are the hope for Italy and for Europe. But more than that, we need to do it with your generation. Thank you for your attention. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches

7 Built upon a bedrock of strong financial cooperation ties, the Shanghai –Singapore partnership has flourished over the years. I foresee that our partnership will receive a boost under a more dynamic Asian financial landscape. II. Evolving New Asian Financial Landscape 8 Many observers have expressed their opinion that in recent years, a gradual shifting of the world’s economic centre of gravity to Asia has taken place. With the shift, many expect a new Asian Financial Landscape to emerge, presenting tremendous new opportunities ahead. Let us look at how this financial landscape is expected to evolve:  Asia’s economic size and rate of growth will pack a much stronger punch in the new era. In 1990, Asia’s share of global GDP was 23.2%. By 2014, this had increased to 38.8%, much larger than the shares of the U.S. and the E.U. If current growth trends continue, Oxford Economics forecast that Asia’s share will reach nearly 45% by 20253. OECD estimates4 that the size of the global middle class will increase to 4.9 billion by 2030. The bulk of this growth will come from Asia. By 2030, Asia will represent almost two-thirds of the global middle-class population and almost 60% of middle-class consumption. With increasing economic weight, Asia is expected to play a leading role in global financial markets. I made similar observations in a speech last week at the ASIFMA Annual Conference in Singapore: Equity markets in Asia recorded strong growth over the past ten years.
And quite a bit of the high-frequency variation in the CPI arises from things that don’t directly affect nominal pay – taxes and import prices, for example – but do affect its real value. When taxes or import prices go down, real incomes rise (and viceversa). This produces a negative near-term correlation between inflation and real income growth; controlling for nominal pay, there is also a clear negative correlation between surveyed inflation expectations and household optimism (Chart 11). Chart 10 Consumer confidence has strengthened in US, Euro area  Source: European Commission, Conference Board  Chart 11 Surveyed household inflation expectations, optimism negatively correlated  Source: ONS, Gfk/EC, Barclays Capital. Note: * after controlling for current wage growth. These results might give one pause about whether the “delayed consumption” channel really is that important, or whether the surveys of inflation expectations are really telling you about what matters. The link between consumption and real interest rates is not an empirically strong one 13. Other measures of inflation expectations – for example from financial markets – are less depressed (Chart 9). A recent study using US data found that, even controlling for nominal income, there was no correlation across individuals between their reported expectations of inflation and spending 14. At the very least, the results are a reminder not to consider current inflation or survey measures of household inflation expectations on their own, but in the context of what’s happening to incomes and interest rates.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Vision of Asia Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) – “Vision of Asia Award Acceptance Speech”, London, 30 June 2010. *  *  *  It is my great honour to be here today to receive this Vision of Asia Award from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF). I would like to thank Lord Desai, for his generous introduction and the advisory board of OMFIF for this recognition. As a policy maker from an emerging economy in Asia – for almost three decades – it has been both exhilarating and most rewarding. While being challenged to the limit, in particular, during the Asian financial crisis, the Asian economies have now emerged stronger and more resilient. This decade has seen a dramatic change in the nature of the globalisation process. As this process intensifies, Asian economies have demonstrated their flexibility to adjust and respond to the opportunities and challenges that have emerged. The initial wave of globalisation was in the form of trade. This was followed by the globalisation of corporations and more recently by the globalisation of financial flows. The recent global financial and economic crisis has called for the globalisation of policy given the limits for policy at the national level and the need to address cross border developments that have implications on the domestic financial system and hence the domestic economy.
Hong Kong, as an international financial centre with a highly externally-oriented economy, does face high ML/TF risks. Our competitive advantages here – namely, free flows of capital, people, goods and information; well-established legal system; sophisticated market infrastructure; and advanced professional services – also make our market attractive for criminals seeking to hide or move funds or evade financial sanctions. With such a risk profile, Hong Kong has a key role in that fight against attempts to abuse our systems, along with our regional partners who share many of these characteristics and fund flows. So this Conference – focusing on the regional response - is timely and very relevant. 11. Over the years, the regulatory landscape has changed. Since we started this line of work in the 90’s, we have seen a steady increase in the regulatory requirements and expectations we place on our financial institutions to combat ML/TF. More recently, the number of sectors and institutions which come within the regulatory remit also continues to grow. These are far from simple requirements however you look at them, particularly given the risk-based approach, a view which is supported by the experience of many financial institutions who have struggled getting it right. 12. The world of banking and finance has also changed significantly in the same period we have been applying these requirements. For example, technology has created new and significant opportunities for the development of the global economy, which has been good news for financial centres such as Hong Kong.

Easier access to financial services benefits us all, but there is a risk that it may also create more opportunities for criminals - if it’s convenient for us to move money in real time using our smart phones, it would also be convenient for money launderers as well. And there is no shortage of smart people looking for ways to exploit such new developments. 18. But technology, especially the fast-growing field of data analytics, has the potential to offer more effective and efficient ways to undertake our AML work. In particular, recent developments in artificial intelligence and data analytics, while still at an early stage, appear promising. For example, AI is already being used to – apologies for the jargon – “triage” alerts generated by monitoring systems to make subsequent case investigations by oldfashioned human beings more focused and efficient. And data analytics is being used to identify what normal behaviour looks like for particular segments or types of customer, thereby making it easier to spot behaviour that departs from the norm and which may therefore need to be scrutinised further. This has the potential to make monitoring less “expost” and allow potential problems to be spotted in real time to a greater extent. And I would once again stress the word “efficient” here: the HKMA is a banking regulator and we have an interest in seeing the banking sector’s cost-to-income ratios kept down, while without compromising effective controls. 19.
W A Wijewardena: The internal auditor in banking institutions – challenges and his new role Keynote address by Mr W A Wijewardena, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at a seminar by the Institute of Internal Auditors, Colombo, 30 November 2007. *  *  *  The precise role which an auditor should play in an organization has always been subject to much debate. Different schools of thought had held different views on the subject based on their personal feelings and ideologies. When we were studying auditing at the university some four decades ago, an adage which was firmly planted in our heads was that “an auditor was a watch dog and not a blood hound”. This principle which had ruled the sphere of auditing for decades had been established in many legal cases that had been judged in the United Kingdom and elsewhere by reference to the common practice of auditing. This simple expression amply described what role an auditor was expected to play in an organization. He was simply to keep a watchful eye on the operations of a business and alert his masters of any irregularity that was happening. Once this was done, it was the responsibility of the masters to take necessary corrective action. An ambitious audit officer may be tempted to go beyond the bound of this adage and take upon himself the responsibility of passing penal judgments on those whom he finds as miscreants of financial responsibility.

But, the auditor’s role is simply to function as a pointer and not a financial crusader. If he chooses to function as a financial crusader, he may not only embarrass his masters, but also endanger his own position as well. Without any penal power vested in the auditor, it is also practically impossible for him to act as a penal authority. The auditor is a watchdog and not a blood hound Businesses today, specifically those involving banking institutions, are very much complex in nature. Hence, one may rightly question whether the old adage relating to auditing could still serve a purpose. Though the complexity of the businesses has grown tremendously, I feel that the old adage relating to auditing is still valid and relevant. It has demarcated the boundary within which an auditor has to operate. If he steps outside this boundary, the most likely consequence would be the creation of a hostile atmosphere for the auditor to perform his duties. No organization, whether big or small, could function effectively and efficiently in that scenario. This caution is equally valid for both external auditors and internal auditors. The role of the internal auditor Internal audit, as against the external audit, is the first safeguard available to the management and owners to run their business free from financial irregularities and misbehaviour. Internal auditor is available on site throughout the period and, therefore, can play his role as an effective watchdog continuously.
In the case of such a lambda, the point of contact will be lower down to the left, for example at point C, where the Taylor curve is flatter. The inflation forecast will then be further from the target while the forecast for resource utilisation will be closer to a normal level. It is of course not so easy to determine what a reasonably large lambda should be for a central bank. Neither the Riksbank nor other central banks have yet announced whether they apply a specific lambda and if so what this lambda is. In those cases where the decisions are made by a committee made up of several members, as at the Riksbank, it is also possible that different members attach different degrees of importance to the stability of the real economy. A question that then arises is how these different views should be aggregated. Nor is it entirely certain that monetary policy decision-makers are even clearly aware of the importance they attach to stability compared with the stability of inflation. If the central bank's forecasts are only based on a known model, like the Riksbank's main model Ramses, it is possible to determine the position of the modified Taylor curve and which point the Riksbank's main scenario in each Monetary Policy report corresponds to. 8 In practice, the Riksbank's forecasts and those of other central banks are based on several different models and a great deal of judgement.

Christine M Cumming: Enhancing payment system speed, efficiency and security Keynote remarks by Ms Christine M Cumming, First Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the TCH Annual Payments Symposium and Business Meeting, New York City, 5 July 2013. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to be here today to speak to you about the evolution of the U.S. payments system and the Federal Reserve Banks’ role in that evolution. The views I express will be mine and not those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, although I will draw on the considerable work being done in the Federal Reserve on the future payments direction. Without question, we are living in an once-in-a-lifetime period of change in the U.S. payments system. Payments providers are seeking ways to bring mobile technology to payments, an integration widely seen as a game-changer by payments industry participants. Person-to-person payments mechanisms have grown rapidly, and the potential for those funds to be immediately credited to the receiver could be another game-changer. Commerce increasingly integrates with a payments mechanism, especially as information about spending patterns are a source of value to firms and loyalty discounts and points become an important part of the business value proposition to customers. Indeed, rather than talk about a payments industry, we find ourselves talking about a payments ecosystem, a web of banks, service companies, alternative payments providers and commercial firms. Some have called these developments a second internet revolution.
There has always been a considerable risk from having a large share of the nation’s wealth linked to a single commodity. But this share has fallen. Only a decade ago, oil and gas reserves made up two-thirds of Norway’s petroleum wealth. Today that share has dropped to about a third. Our aggregate wealth has become more diversified, which means we can tolerate slightly higher volatility in our financial wealth. The Government has today announced that it will propose an increase in the equity allocation in the oil fund to 70 percent. At the same time, the estimated expected real return on the oil fund is adjusted down to 3 percent. The choice of equity allocation is an important decision. But an even more important choice is the level of oil revenue spending. Fluctuations in the value of the fund present challenges for fiscal policy and for the fiscal rule. Let me comment somewhat further on this issue. The oil fund and the fiscal rule have long been important pillars of Norwegian economic policy. One key goal has been to preserve large parts of our petroleum wealth for future generations. There has also been an explicit desire to shield the Norwegian economy from swings in oil prices. Allow me to quote from the Revised National Budget for 1995: “Revenues from the petroleum sector vary more over time than other revenues.

These surpluses have declined in the past few years. Oil and gas production passed its peak more than a decade ago. We may find once again that these resources have been underestimated. But the oil price collapse and developments in the Norwegian economy in the past few years have reminded us of an inescapable fact; we must drive forward a larger non-oil tradable sector. We need more legs to stand on. The needed structural adjustments in the Norwegian economy will have to be dealt with against the backdrop of more global challenges. Demographic changes and sagging productivity growth may point towards persistently low growth in advanced economies. Protectionist tendencies and reduced trade in goods and services could put an additional drag on growth. We must also make changes to consumption and production methods in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This evening I will take a closer look at these challenges. Is low growth here to stay in advanced economies? In the long term, there are two factors that determine how quickly an economy can grow: the 2/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  supply of labour and labour productivity. Chart: Working age population The decline in the working age population is weighing on the growth outlook for many countries. The large post-war cohorts are leaving the labour force, and the consequences of a long period of low fertility rates are becoming increasingly clear. At the same time, the proportion of the population who are employed remains low in many countries.