samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the monetary sphere, that takes the form of purchases from the private sector of longer-term public and private securities, financed by issuing claims on the central bank. As we saw in Charts 1 and 2, both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve have made substantial large-scale asset purchases, worth about 15% of GDP in each case. The aim of such purchases is to drive down the yields on these and similar assets by increasing their scarcity, so boosting demand. Commonly referred to as “quantitative easing”, the moniker is somewhat misleading as it focuses attention on the associated reserve expansion, rather than the change in the portfolio composition of the central bank and private sector. But do they work? Under Ricardian equivalence the answer would be No, as the associated transfer of risks from private sector balance sheets onto the public sector’s is matched by offsetting movements in future taxes (Gauti Eggertson and Woodford, 2003). Be that as it may, event studies by Joe Gagnon and others (2010) for the United States, and Mike Joyce and others (2010) for the United Kingdom suggest that long-term bond rates in each jurisdiction fell by around 100 basis points as a result of the purchase programmes, though the ultimate impact on aggregate demand is harder to judge. From this I draw my fourth lesson: central banks do not run out of ammunition when policy rates reach their zero lower bound.

One source of concern for both the United States and the world as a whole is the large deficits in the US economy. In the third quarter last year the current account deficit totalled USD 165 billion, or around 6 per cent of GDP. Data for November show that the deficit has continued to grow, reaching a new record high of just over USD 60 billion. This may result in changes in interest rates and exchange rates that could have considerable consequences for world trade. A large share, or about 40 per cent, of Sweden’s exports go to the euro area, and as a result economic developments there are especially important for us. The recovery in the euro area economy is going slowly. Growth in the third quarter was lower than expected. Available indicators for the fourth quarter provide a mixed picture. Germany, which is an important market for Swedish products, is showing some signs of an improvement. After several years of extensive cutbacks there should be a pent-up need among firms to invest. At the same time exports are being dampened by the euro’s rise against mainly the dollar. BIS Review 10/2005  1  The economic situation in Sweden As regards Sweden the Riksbank has been positive in the past year in its outlook on economic developments. International demand has increased faster than anticipated, with above all exports of services proving unexpectedly robust. Economic policy is also contributing to the relatively bright growth prospects.
The decline in demand in the economy is documented by the following indicators: Household consumption, which is crucial for the future course of demand-pull inflation, fell for the sixth consecutive quarter and is below the pre-Covid level. The saving rate is now 21.7% (data for 2022 Q4), while the long-term average is 12%. The decline in demand is also illustrated by the fact that prices of new apartments are already falling quarter on quarter. I want to emphasise that there is no wage spiral in the economy. The average nominal wage rose by 8.6% year on year in Q1. Nominal wages increased half a percentage point more slowly than expected in our May forecast, which expects inflation to return to the target in the first half of next year. The average real wage fell by 6.7%, decreasing for the sixth consecutive month. For comparison, the average wage at the CNB used to be linked to inflation. However, we managed to renegotiate this with the trade unions, and the average wage at the central bank rose by 4.5% this year. We are thus setting an example, not least by showing that inflation clauses can often be changed by agreement of the two parties. These are steps that can be taken to avoid a wage spiral. The decline in real demand means that the economy is below potential output and we have a negative output gap. Interest rates are slowing growth in the quantity of money in the economy. Inflation pressures are fading as a result.

These are only some of the many dynamics that we are experiencing at a rapid pace today. What these underscores to all of us, is the importance of continuous learning so we can continue to adapt and evolve. I am sure the knowledge you have learnt in your respective courses will provide you a strong foundation as financial planners professionals. However, to keep pace with the changing environment you must have a lifelong learning mindset. It is important to keep abreast with the latest economic developments and continuously update your information set so that you are able to provide the most optimal advice to your clients. Apart from providing information and filling the gaps in financial knowledge, financial planners play the important role of defusing biases that lead to common financial mistakes among consumers and help mediate in joint decision-making. This is especially true for vulnerable consumers who largely lack capability to fully understand and comprehend the risk-return assessments, not only of complex financial products and services but sometimes even those basic ones. One financial decision can have far-reaching consequences on their current and future livelihood. It is therefore crucial not to downplay the importance of professional advice in improving the quality of life and the wellbeing of individuals and households.
The third challenge is that we are currently living with genuine uncertainty. Who could have imagined in autumn 2019 that spring 2020 would turn out the way it did? * I would like to thank Mårten Löf, who has helped me with this speech. Moreover, I have received valuable comments from Charlotta Edler, Mattias Erlandsson, Rebecka Hallerby, Peter Kaplan and Marianne Sterner. 1 [6]  Monetary policy has pushed down market rates During the spring, the Riksbank has decided on a number of monetary policy measures. When financial markets do not function as normal, the credit supply in the economy is threatened. Here, I wish to highlight four measures that the Riksbank has implemented.1 The first has concerned buying government bonds, mortgage bonds and municipal bonds, as well as commercial paper for a total of SEK 300 billion. The Riksbank has, secondly, decide to give the banks the opportunity to borrow from the Riksbank so they can in turn offer loans to companies, SEK 500 billion has been allocated for this purpose. The third measure gives the banks the opportunity to borrow an unlimited amount from the Riksbank. And the fourth measure is the Riksbank's decision to lend up to 60 billion US dollars to banks that need foreign currency. These measures have two effects. They facilitate credit supply as the Riksbank in this way supplies more money to the financial system. When the volume of money increases, there is also downward pressure on market rates.

Replacing missing prices in this way is usually referred to as imputation. The total weight in the CPI for the products where prices are imputed in this way is not particularly large; it amounts to just under 3 per cent of the total weight of the CPI, see Figure 2. The percentage of imputed prices is at present much higher in other parts of Europe. Figure 2 shows the aggregate weight for the product groups where imputation has been necessary in total for the euro area and the larger euro-area countries. The statistics refer to the harmonised index for consumer prices, the HICP.3  2  See the press release and the material presented at an extraordinary meeting in the Consumer Price Index Board on 1 April. 3 The HICP was developed by Eurostat, which is the EU’s statistical body. The measure was designed to facilitate international comparisons of inflation. 3 [6]  Figure 2. Percentage of imputations in the HICP 4 Per cent  Source: Eurostat  What do the many imputations abroad entail for the quality of the statistics? The conclusion in a current working report written by two world-leading researchers in this field is that the principles recommended by international organisations lead to underestimation of the rate of inflation and overestimation of the real increase in consumption.5 However, this is probably no major problem for Sweden, as the percentage of prices imputed is relatively low. The problems could be much greater for other countries, and therefore for international comparisons.
As the economic recovery took hold, the deflationary risks diminished, notwithstanding the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Over the past few years, my Governing Board colleagues and I have repeatedly emphasised that the SNB does not pursue an exchange rate target, but consistently bases its monetary policy on its legal mandate. This mandate stipulates that the Swiss National Bank is required to ensure price stability, while taking due account of economic developments. The dreaded scenario of a deflationary dynamic could thus be avoided so far. Nonetheless, the appreciation of the Swiss franc that ensued obviously impaired the price competitiveness of Swiss exporters. However, the exchange rate is only one factor to affect exports. This raises the question as to which other factors were potentially beneficial for the development of Swiss goods exports in the most recent crisis. 3 To answer this question, I would now like to take a closer look at the structure and developments of Swiss goods exports in the last 20 years. I will concentrate on three factors in particular, namely the geographical, the sectoral and the qualitative dimensions of the Swiss export industry. 2. Swiss exports: developments and an international comparison  2.1  The geographical dimension  Geographically speaking, Switzerland’s export structure has become increasingly diversified over the last two decades.

The total financial packages provided around the world to various economic sectors (health and non-health) amounted to around USD 10.8 trillion, equivalent to 10.2% of the global GDP, while the amounts allocated to support liquidity injected into the economies reached USD 6.1 trillion, or 6.2% of the global GDP. Like the other countries in the world, the Kuwaiti economy encountered many challenges, as economic activities have been shut down for several months, and global shipping of merchandise goods has been severely disrupted. Proceeding from the importance of discussions and sharing of experiences to pave the way towards making the right decisions and bringing about thorough strategies that strengthen the monetary and financial stability, I would like to briefly present the efforts made by the Central Bank of Kuwait to achieve this goal during the previous period, and the measures it have taken to alleviate those challenges and develop a mechanism for follow-up thereon and a plan for safe exit.   Speech delivered by His Excellency the Governor of the Central Bank of Kuwait, Basel A. Al-Haroon, in the 46th Ordinary Session of the Council of the Governors of the Arab Central Banks and Monetary Authorities, held in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on September 18, 2022. Page 1 of 4  In line with its proactive approach adopted since March 2020, the Central Bank of Kuwait has taken several measures and actions through its various monetary, supervisory and hedging instruments.
This is a major innovation, a robust step, in the wake of the 2008 crisis and the loss of confidence of customers in their financial sector in many advanced economies, sometimes due to deceptive business practices. Restoring confidence is of course in the interest of all those present in this room. This means, for us, ensuring compliance with existing laws and regulations, as well as with the best practices observed or recommended by the ACPR. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Naturally, this consumer protection task is not designed to enforce these different rules in a blanket fashion. Rather, it must be done in accordance with the principles underlying these regulations and fully understanding the reality of these business practices. To sum it up in one sentence, these principles aim to balance relations between clients and professionals. This rebalancing is mainly achieved by taking account of the information asymmetry that can exist between these players. This may include rules that are specific to vulnerable clients, to a category of complex products, to the obligation to consider the interest of customers when the product is designed or in the organisation of product distribution. The reality of business practices, however, is difficult to sum up in a few words. This is where the work of ACPR staff comes into play; in the supervision as well as analysis of different data and through contact with both professionals and consumers. Collecting data on business practices is a prerequisite for the ACPR to guide its supervisory duties.

Against this backdrop, the ACPR redesigned its questionnaire on business practices and consumer protection. It can now understand current market practices, as well as trends in products, services and practices. I will now talk about ACPR inspections. They are firstly intended to ensure compliance with the applicable rules and to make sure that errors are corrected before they have consequences for customers. In the worst cases, such errors lead to sanctions. This approach is necessary to punish violations and useful to increase awareness in the profession. ACPR inspections are not however limited to dealing with bad practices on a case-by-case basis. They also identify more general problems that call for changes in market practices or even in regulations. Several examples will be discussed this morning to illustrate the lessons learned from such inspections. For instance, ACPR staff examined distribution channels in which there are a number of intermediaries between the customer and the producer (bank or more often insurer). The questions that we are asking today are simple. But they are important for the sector as a whole. Do all intermediaries provide value added to the customer? How can we guarantee the customer a reliable and efficient chain, irrespective of its organisation? To enhance practices, the ACPR also has a flexible legal tool, the recommendation. I believe that this instrument is useful for prevention. Recommendations are intended to change or guide the behaviour of professionals. It helps them to identify and actually integrate what is expected of them in terms of consumer protection.
I think that a stronger international initiative and joint effort of the statistics community as well of the policy makers in reexamining the concept of confidentiality is warranted, of course without jeopardizing the protection of the confidentiality of individual data by reporters, but stimulating coherence and cooperation. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

(1999), “  Do efficient financial markets mitigate financial crises?”, speech before the 1999 Financial Markets Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Sea Island, Georgia, 19 October. [4] The net asset value spread refers to the difference between the price at which exchange-traded fund shares trade and the net asset value of the underlying portfolio held by the fund per share. This may also suggest that exchange-traded fund prices provided more upto-date information, thereby supporting price discovery. See Financial Stability Board (2020),  Holistic Review of the March Market Turmoil, 17 November. [5] Duffie, D. (2020), “  Still the World’s Safe Haven? Redesigning the U.S. Treasury Market after the COVID-19 Crisis”, Hutchins Center Working Papers, No 62, June. [6] It is even conceivable that the market turmoil could have been worse without the more stringent regulatory requirements on dealers, which helped to ensure their resilience during the spring. [7] At the same time, higher cash holdings were associated with substantially weaker performance in 2018-19 compared with previous years, potentially reflecting the high costs of holding cash in a low interest rate environment. [8] Schrimpf, A. et al. (2020), “  Leverage and margin spirals in fixed income markets during the Covid-19 crisis”, BIS Bulletin, No 2, Bank for International Settlements, 2 April. [9] Vivar, L.M. et al. (2020), “  Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds”, Working Paper Series, No 2413, ECB, May. [10] Vassallo, D. et al.
Firstly, it gives recognition to the fact that we are all aware of the potential of this sector in generating employment, promoting economic growth and reducing existing poverty levels. In low income sub-Saharan African countries, SMEs and micro-enterprises make up about 90% of all enterprises. However, due to the various constraints they face, their overall contribution to GDP can in some countries be as low as 20% although estimates show that this could be scaled up to 60% with the greater realization of the sector’s potential. Contribution to employment can be as high as 63%. For most low income countries, SMEs are the main  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  source of jobs and income after subsistence agriculture. Particularly significant is that they are a great source of livelihood for women who own more than half of SMEs while over 70% of Africa’s rural population survives through the formal and informal SME sector. There is little doubt, therefore, that SMEs form a solid basis for sustainable economic development on our continent. Secondly, the continued discourse on SMEs reminds us of the possibility that we have probably done more talking about the problem than fixing it. Although the development of SMEs is varied extensively across Africa, what is clear is that in most countries a major obstacle to their growth is the lack of sustainable and cost effective financial products. South Africa and Mauritius in this region and North Africa have done a commendable job in developing flourishing SMEs sectors.

Many approaches were tried, some proved their worth, while others were abandoned. The establishment of these monetary institutions was not a constant reinvention of the wheel; rather, progress was evident. The sound institutions that have grown in this way represent valuable capital for our country and have made a significant contribution to Switzerland’s prosperity. I feel that it behoves us to become familiar with the history of our monetary and currency institutions. This is true not just for the employees of the SNB, but in particular for them. In fact, this was the original idea behind Professor Baltensperger’s book, namely to improve employees’ knowledge of Switzerland’s economic history. Or, expressed in a different way: To encourage them to “become familiar with the ground on which we lay our foundations”. On the initiative of the former Chairman of the Board, Jean-Pierre Roth, an internal seminar on the history of the Swiss currency in the 19th and 20th centuries was organised in the autumn of 2008 and in the spring of 2009. It became clear that no work yet existed which covered the entire period of the history of the Swiss franc. It was this realisation that laid the foundation for this book. The book was ultimately written by expanding on the material derived from the internal seminar. As you will be able to conclude for yourself after reading the work, the result can certainly be considered a resounding success. The book by Professor Baltensperger is a beautifully illustrated work with fascinating contents.
Beyond the financial sector, law and accounting firms have also expanded their expertise to provide trust-related services to support this growing industry. “Myths” versus reality 7. Notwithstanding the important and legitimate roles of trusts, the trust services industry has come under increased scrutiny for the confidentiality it provides. There is a misconception at times that trusts are mostly being used to conceal one’s identity or beneficial ownership for tax evasion or other illicit purposes. Indeed, if left unregulated, trust structures can be vulnerable to being abused by criminals. The Financial Action Taskforce (“FATF”), an inter-  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  governmental body that sets the global standard for measures to combat money laundering, terrorist financing, and the financing of proliferation, has identified specific typologies to illustrate common activities related to money laundering. In one such example, criminals could set up trusts to receive stolen assets, and then separate themselves from the assets by creating multiple layers. Singapore’s regulatory framework deters and prevents such criminal abuse. 8. With the growing use of trusts, it is critical that we have in place regulatory frameworks that can support its development and help to ensure international confidence in the trust industry. Singapore maintains one of the most modern and robust frameworks for the regulation of trust companies – we are one of the first financial centres to have introduced mandatory licensing for trust companies, under the Trust Companies Act (“TCA”).

As part of this effort, two key global standards are relevant to the trust industry – (i) transparency of beneficial ownership, and (ii) tax transparency through Automatic Exchange of Information (“AEOI”) between tax jurisdictions. These rules, when applied appropriately and consistently across all jurisdictions, can help to more effectively combat money laundering and other serious financial crimes including on tax. This in turn, will safeguard the integrity of the global financial system, of which the trust industry is a part, and create the conditions for sustainable growth. Increased focus on transparency of Beneficial Ownership 11. Let me first touch on the increased focus on beneficial ownership. 12. Given the risks of the misuse of corporate vehicles for illicit purposes, there has been increased international focus on transparency of beneficial ownership. Initiatives such as the FATF Anti-Corruption Work Group and the work of the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes (“Global Forum”) are good examples. 13. There is also growing recognition that transparency of beneficial ownership will help to prevent and combat financial crimes. We can thus expect international standards setters such as the FATF to probe deeper in their assessment of how countries promote transparency of beneficial ownership. For example, the revised FATF Recommendations  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  now include additional elaboration on the manner in which countries can go about enhancing the transparency of trusts.