samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Kevin Stiroh: Opening remarks at the GARP Global Risk Forum Remarks by Mr Kevin Stiroh, Executive Vice President of the Financial Institution Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York / GARP Global Risk Forum, New York City, 2 November 2016. * * * Good Morning. I’m Kevin Stiroh, the head of the Supervision Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I’d like to extend a warm welcome from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which is co-hosting the Global Risk Forum with the Global Association of Risk Professionals. I’d like to thank the many organizers of this meeting—as you can imagine, considerable time and resources went into planning this conference and that is what makes it so valuable for the participants and the risk management profession. First, let me state that my comments today are my own and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Looking Back at the Global Risk Forum When I was asked to speak at today’s session, I realized that it’s been five years since I served on the planning committee that developed the Global Risk Forum program in 2011. I wondered how our risk priorities and risk management issues have evolved over those five years as the world has changed around us.

The restraining influence of low economic activity will begin to fully impact inflation dynamics in the second half of 2015. By this time, the effect of temporary factors, such as the depreciation of the ruble and foreign trade restrictions that have led to acceleration in consumer prices growth, will be exhausted. As we have already noted, inflation will reach its peak in 2015 Q2, and afterwards it is forecast to fall. In March 2016, inflation will approximate to 9% before falling down to 4% in the medium run. Such inflation dynamics will be accompanied by economic recovery. The bottom of economic recession is expected in 2016 Q1, later on the economy will start growing on a quarterly basis. By that time the initial adjustment of the economy to the new environment will be over. Higher global oil prices, the economic recovery of trade partner countries, and the formation  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  of new sources of financing will also contribute to this growth. In 2017, economic recovery is expected to exceed 6%. We shall continue to regularly update our forecast by monitoring movements of a wide range of indicators taking into account not only annual inflation dynamics, but also quarterly, monthly and weekly ones. If new pro-inflationary factors do not appear and inflation decelerates according to our forecast, we shall continue cutting the key rate.
The macroeconomic forecast underpinning the Draft Budget also appears to be considerably in line with the projections made by other analysts for these same variables in 2020, especially considering the high level of uncertainty. Thus, in the Consensus Economics Forecasts panel published in mid-October, the analyst consensus pointed to a contraction in GDP of 12.1% and a budget deficit also of 12.1% in 2020. 14  A second noteworthy aspect of the macroeconomic forecast accompanying the Draft Budget is that it expects GDP to grow by 9.8% in real terms in 2021 (10.8% in nominal terms). This is assuming that some € billion will be available from European funds in 2021 (around 2.4% of estimated GDP for 2020), with a positive impact on the rate of growth of GDP in that year of 2.6 pp. As I indicated earlier, the Banco de España’s latest projection exercise did not include the potential positive impact on activity of the funds that the European Union has made available to Member States, through the NGEU programme, to support the ongoing economic recovery and structural transformation. In consequence, in order to use the Banco de España’s projection scenarios as a benchmark for comparison, the GDP growth estimate for 2021 in the macroeconomic forecast underpinning the Draft Budget must be considered having discounted the impact of the projects financed through the NGEU programme. This gives GDP growth of 7.2% in real terms (8.1% in nominal terms).

The latest IMF forecasts released in early October illustrate the extraordinary impact the pandemic has already had on economic growth globally and the incomplete nature of the ongoing recovery. 1  In particular, the baseline scenario of these forecasts suggests that, following growth of 2.8% in 2019, global GDP will shrink by 4.4% in 2020. This contraction will be more acute across the advanced economies than in the emerging countries (with declines of 5.8% and 3.3%, respectively) and, among the former, it will bear down particularly on the euro area, where output is expected to fall, according to the IMF, by 8.3% this year. In 2021, the IMF expects activity to pick up relatively strongly in virtually all economies, entailing growth of 5.2% globally. However, in most countries, despite this recovery, the level of GDP in 2021 would still be below that recorded in 2019 before the outbreak of the pandemic. The gap in the advanced economies as a whole would be about 2 percentage points (pp). In the case of the euro area, the contraction in economic activity has been across the board in the year to date, despite the partial recovery posted in the summer months following the easing of the lockdown measures deployed in the first half of the year. Euro area GDP in Q3 was thus still 4.3% lower than in 2019 Q4. In the four biggest euro area economies, the loss in output was more marked in Spain (9.1%) than in Italy, France or Germany (4.5%, 4.1% and 4.2%, respectively).
But growth has a price. This is particularly reflected in increased emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of increased human activity. It is still uncertain how serious the impact of gas emissions will be. But once the impact comes into full evidence, it may be too late to take corrective action. There is also the risk that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reaches such a high level that it exceeds critical values that cannot be reversed. We are very pleased to have Dr John Llewellyn, Senior Economic Policy Advisor at Lehman Brothers, here today to enlighten us on how globalisation affects the environment. Changes  BIS Review 27/2008  1  in our environment affect the way we are able to interact: it is important to combine knowledge about nature with knowledge about the functioning of the economy. The last decade or so, we have witnessed increased financial integration and competition across national borders. This is a positive development. Deeper and more mature markets tend to be better equipped to deal with uncertainty and distress. But increased financial integration also raises the potential for more widespread contagion if something goes wrong, as witnessed by the current financial turmoil. Professor Philip Lane, Director of the Institute for International Integration studies at Trinity College Dublin, is one of the foremost experts on financial globalisation, and we are very much looking forward to hearing what he has to say on this subject.

Furthermore, the public finances of Bulgaria remain sound and the successful fiscal consolidation is illustrated by the budget surplus last year and the third lowest government debt to GDP ratio in the EU. As for the structural reform agenda, much more remains to be done in order to resolve remaining issues and help attract increased capital flows from the EU. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  We at the central bank have already planned the next steps, which will build on recent progress. Among other things, we plan to further strengthen our banking supervision, develop the crisis management framework for the banking sector, and reduce the level of nonperforming loans. To conclude, decisive actions are required at both the EU and national levels to address the current saving-investment mismatches within the EU. While expending the available toolkit is important, priority should be given to resolving the remaining underlying issues with regard to banking and financial integration, real convergence, and quality of project management. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
BIS Review 5/2010  1  In addition, it is common knowledge that Zambians prefer to be in formal employment rather than engage in entrepreneurial activities on a full time basis. The small number of educated Zambians engaging in entrepreneurial activities limits the scale of indigenous businesses as evidenced by the non participation of Zambians in major sectors of the economy like mining or manufacturing. It is however, important to realise that individual entrepreneurs as well as small and medium sized enterprises form the engine of economic and social development as they generate the much needed employment for our people. Hence the need to encourage all efforts aimed at stimulating entrepreneurship. Distinguished Invited Guests, our institutions of higher learning play an important role by molding and developing innovative and creative mindsets amongst our young people. With this belief in themselves, young people can be productive, take responsibility in their respective communities and ultimately drive our economy forward. We need to remind ourselves that Google was founded by students; Facebook was founded by a student; and even Microsoft was formed by Bill Gates as a student. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me assure you that the Bank of Zambia is committed to ensuring the availability of finance to viable entrepreneurs including small and medium sized businesses.

But on account of communication barriers, Zambian businesses might not take advantage of our close proximity. This goes to show Your Excellency that our reliance on English as a lingua franca is detrimental to our national interest, especially in our quest to alleviate poverty in our society. In this regard, the need for us to speak, read and write French so that we communicate effectively at the regional and international level cannot be overstressed. BIS Review 5/2005  1  Furthermore, recent developments in the global economy dictate that we should be able to interact effectively at various international fora where appreciation of the cultures, values and customs of other people is important. Therefore, in view of the foregoing, we, at the Bank of Zambia, have realised that there is a compelling need to overcome our communication barrier by developing our employees’ multi-lingual skills, particularly, in French so as to, among other things: (i)  develop the required patience in their interactions with our non-English speaking counterparts;  (ii)  acknowledge the unique talents and contributions of others;  (iii)  uncover and show concern for the pressures and constraints which others face and modify the demands we may place on them;  (iv)  actively seek facts and data that explain and support others’ views and incorporate others’ feelings and values when restating their perspectives; and  (v)  reduce the cost of hiring external interpreters which impacts adversely on our limited resources.
In coming years, it is reasonable to expect global term premia to rise as net asset purchases could shift significantly from the situation during the past four years when all net issuance within the G4 was effectively absorbed (Table 1). 35  Hélène Rey has been a key proponent of the importance of such channels. See, for example, Miranda-Agrippino, S and Rey, H (2015), ‘World asset markets and the global financial crisis’, NBER Working Paper No. 21722. 36 IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2017, Chapter 3. 37 Cesa-Bianchi, A and Sokol, A ‘The international credit channel of US monetary policy and credit shocks’, forthcoming. 14  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  14  Table 1: G4 net asset issuance still low in 2017  $ Asset purchases Bond issuance Net issuance  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  -61  1756  451  670  642  1756  1254  1312  1799  1338  2936  2664  3534  2486  2263  1753  1525  1093  1286  1527  2997  908  3083  1816  1622  -3  270  -219  -513  189  Notes: G4 here are the UK, EA, US and Japan. Bond issuance refers to annual changes in the stock of the general government debt. Agency debt is also included for the US.

11 Headline CPI inflation averaged 1.9% over this period. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  Chart 5: Sustained, cumulative relative price shock in goods accommodated through higher services price inflation  Notes: Six-month average of the log-difference between core goods prices (excludes food and energy) and services prices (series indexed; 2005 = 100). The US series uses PCE price indices. Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, national sources and Bank calculation. Globalisation has also led to a dramatic increase in the use of imported intermediates in domestic production. The ICT revolution has made a great unbundling of production into global value chains possible, and large wage differentials have made doing so profitable. Intermediate goods trade has represented 80% of the increase in total trade over the past two decades (Chart 6), driving up the value added of imports as a share from 10% of exports in 1990 to around 20% in 2015. 12  12  See Auer, R, Borio, C and Filardo, A (2017), ‘The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains’, BIS Working Paper No. 602. 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  7  Chart 6: The development of global value chains has boosted trade in intermediates  Notes: Imports and GDP are in current US dollars. Sources: Johnson and Noguera (forthcoming), Powell (2016), World Input-Output Database (2016 release) and BIS. This expansion in global value chains has led to greater synchronisation of producer price inflation across countries.
But the deficit that would be permissible – without endangering long-term confidence in fiscal policy – if activity were to go on weakening is an open question that we should be reluctant to put to the test. Budget policy’s other foundation stone, in addition to the targeted surplus, is the spending ceiling. This has been observed to date but the safety margins have shrunk. Additional savings will therefore be needed if activity weakens as much as now seems likely. To exceed the spending ceiling the first time it is exposed to serious strains would harm confidence in the budget system that has been established. For monetary policy the situation is also relatively good. Inflation has been low for a number of years, frequently lower in fact than the Riksbank’s 2 per cent target. Now that it has crept up above 2 per cent in recent months and thus exceeds our target, I am not aware that anyone has taken this as a sign that we do not take the target seriously. Inflation expectations, as measured by a variety of indicators, have also been well in line with our target. This is the fruit of the policy we have followed. Had we continually stretched the limits in the past, there would have been less room in which to take prompt action, as we did a fortnight ago, for instance. As you are all probably aware, the interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points in July, to 4.25 per cent, was controversial.

The only effect is liable to be increased uncertainty about the future. The criticism, which presupposed that economic agents are rational, also concerned the labour market. In that the Phillips curve disregards a central explanatory variable – inflation expectations – it is not stable over time. A demand stimulus that pushes inflation up erodes real wage levels. Employees will therefore demand compensation for the price increases and the attendant loss of purchasing power. That means that the additional employment which the stimulus was designed to generate will never materialise. Moreover, Keynesian economic policy had already been criticised in the 1930s on the grounds that stimulating demand in a downturn is considerably easier than tightening policy in an upswing. Economic developments in Sweden from the 1970s onwards provided plenty of support for Keynesianism’s critics. Inflation rose at the same time as keeping total unemployment down proved increasingly difficult. Public spending expanded continuously and particularly in downward phases. Government debt grew even though tax pressure rose. A fundamental loss of competitiveness was countered with repeated devaluations. Back to price stability In a number of industrialised countries, economic policy was realigned in the years around 1980. The aim was to provide a good foundation for stable growth by keeping inflation low. In Sweden the corresponding realignment did not occur until the turn of the 1980s. After almost two decades of high inflation, the costs were considerable. The financial excesses that had characterised the late 1980s in particular were ruthlessly exposed when the inflation bubble burst.
Petar Goshev: Central banking in Macedonia – a brief review of the first 60 years Welcome speech by Mr Petar Goshev, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the opening ceremony of the 60th anniversary of central banking in the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje, 20 October 2006. *  *  *  Honorable President of the Republic of Macedonia, Mr. Branko Crvenkovski, Honorable President of the Parliament of the Republic of Macedonia, Mr. Ljubisha Georgievski, Honorable President of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia, Mr. Nikola Gruevski, Honorable former President of the Republic of Macedonia, Mr. Kiro Gligorov, Honorable Ministers former and present, Distinguished representatives of the judicial, public and cultural institutions of the Republic of Macedonia, Your Excellencies, Distinguished leaders of religious communities' Honorable Mayor of the City of Skopje, Dear colleagues, leaders of the banking and business community, Dear friends from other countries, colleagues governors, representatives of central banks and other international financial institutions, present here tonight from four continents, dear Malcolm Knight, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you all the warmest welcome to this event, that is so important to all of us! On October 19, 1946, on the basis of a "Decree for merging of public sector credit enterprises", of the federal state of that time, and a Decision of the Macedonian authorities of that time, "Makedonska Stopanska Banka" merged with the National Bank of the former Federal Yugoslavia.

Large shares of the sizeable revenues from the petroleum sector over the past 20 years have been transferred to the oil fund. Norway’s sound public finances have been a great advantage to the economy, particularly through the financial crisis. But the management of the government’s large petroleum revenues through our 40 year-long oil history has not always been equally well planned. In the mid-1970s, the budget deficit – including petroleum revenues – reached a high level. And we could not know then that oil prices would more than double a few years later – with the second oil shock in 1979, known as OPEC II. But we learned from our mistakes. The oil fund mechanism in 1990 and the fiscal rule in 2001 were introduced to discipline fiscal policy in such a way that Norway’s petroleum wealth would also benefit future generations. Oil fund assets are now equivalent to more than twice the GDP of Norway’s mainland economy, and the oil fund, or the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), is today one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds. The GPFG represents the nation’s savings, to be managed for the benefit of both current and future generations. As an investor, the GPFG makes capital available to other countries for economic activity, and the return on that capital will depend on the economic performance of those countries. The GPFG is a long-term, responsible investor. The objective of investment management is to achieve the highest possible return at an acceptable level of risk.
The third aspect of our financial reform is market discipline. ·  We recognise that sound corporate governance, both in banks and their borrowers, will provide discipline from within, while public disclosure will allow market force to discipline the financial institutions from the outside. ·  We will launch a new Directors’ Handbook for the financial community, which will further encourage understanding and motivation behind good governance, and we will also endeavour to improve the transparency of appointment and compensation. Ladies and gentlemen,  BIS Review 70/2001  5  The last challenge I want to share with you is the strengthening of the Bank of Thailand to meet future challenges. The crisis of 1997 brought to light weakness in Thailand’s financial management. The Bank of Thailand like most central banks in the region, have had to go through sea of changes in the wake of the crisis, and undergo intensive reform of its operation and organization. Three areas of change in particular that stands out as our major achievements are internal reorganization, strengthening the framework for monetary policy under inflation targeting, and enhancing communication and transparency of operation. At the onset of the crisis, the Bank of Thailand underwent major restructuring in the organization structure, data management and work process. These were aimed to ensure the good foundation in our decision-making process particularly with monetary policy implementation and financial institution supervision.

To restore stability to the financial system, the most immediate step taken was to ensure that financial institutions have adequate capital to withstand future risks. The sources of capital were to come from the private sector including the original shareholders and new partners, both Thai and foreign. As it turns out, in some cases, the authorities did eventually provide a recapitalisation scheme. Nevertheless, this scheme was not much utilized by banks. In fact, only 74 billion baht of the scheme was actually used. Another important step taken to stabilize the financial system was to raise the prudential and supervision standards such as the rules on loan classification, provisioning, asset valuation, just to name a few examples, to be in line with international standards. As a result, commercial banks in Thailand have gradually recovered from the crisis. Here are some facts and numbers. ·  The banking sector now has a capital adequacy ratio of 11.9%. ·  The Thai banks recorded a better result in the first quarter of this year. They turned in a profit of 1.9 billion compared to a loss of 39 billion baht in the same period last year, as loan provision expenses declined significantly. This is partly due to the large provisioning and loss recognition, which were already taken last year. In addition, there has been substantial progress in debt restructuring the Thai banks recorded.