samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The effect of globalization is the establishment of international financial conglomerates. In the case of an economic crisis, the conglomerates may channel it through to other markets. Such companies could be very important for the stability of the financial system in a country or region. Their bankruptcy may evoke a crisis, even in a steadily growing economy and even in the situation when the financial problems have stemmed from a foreign market. The lack of standard procedure for solving problems of international financial institutions impairs prevention and solving of financial crises. The existing safety net established by national economic authorities is frequently a source of moral hazard for large  11  Issing O. “The globalization of financial market”, 2000, www.ecb.int. 12  Lutkowski K., “Mechanizm przepływów kapitałowych w epoce globalizacji” in: ”Globalizacja od A do Z”, NBP 2004. 13  Małecki W., Sławiński A., Piasecki R., Żuławska U. “Kryzysy walutowe”, PWN, Warsaw 2001. 14  Mishkin F.C. “Is Globalization Beneficial?”, NBER Working Paper 11891, 2005. 15  Kamisky G. L, Reinhart C.M. “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems”, American Economic Review 89, 1999, pp. 473–500. Caprio G., Klingebiel D. “Episodes of systemic and borderline financial crises”, the World Bank , mimeo, 2003. 16  Rajan R. G. “Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?” NBER Working Paper 11728, 2005.

The background to this is that developments in the euro area in general and in Germany in particular look rather gloomier than they did before. The euro area’s export industry is hampered by international uncertainty, as well as a stronger euro and a weak labour market is affecting households’ consumption and confidence in the future. This means that the international economic prospects look rather poorer now, which was also the conclusion of the Executive Board at its monetary policy meeting on 6 February. However, this assessment is based on the assumption that the Iraq crisis will develop in a way that will not significantly deteriorate economic prospects. Flat growth path for the Swedish economy The financial unease has also affected the Swedish economy. Industrial production has stood still during the autumn and order books have been slow to fill. This is perhaps not so strange in the light of the “wait-and-see” mentality prevailing on important export markets. However, as the international economic climate improves, this and the cyclical pattern for investment are expected to give impetus to industrial production in Sweden. Over the past six months, Swedish households have become increasingly pessimistic in their view of the future, which is perhaps understandable taking into account the negative news with which they are confronted: rising energy prices, higher taxes and expected cuts. The scope for consumption will be under pressure from these factors in the near future.
•  In essence, an API documents how a system operates, what inputs it will accept, and what outputs the system will provide. •  APIs allow different systems to interact with one another without the need for human intervention. •  In effect, APIs allow users to seamlessly merge multiple data sets from different sources into a single rich data set. Using APIs, systems can be linked to create a system of systems, where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Smartphones are a good example. •  Every notification you receive from Twitter or Facebook comes through an API and is displayed on your screen by another API. More efficient transactions Financial institutions are already making use of APIs to enhance efficiency in transactions. •  SWIFT itself is a good example. Previously, international fund transfers were a manual process. Banks sent telex messages to each other to debit funds from one account and credit it to another. The speed of response depended on whether someone was waiting by the telex machine! •  Now, transferring funds only requires banks to send a SWIFT message containing payment instructions to another bank for funds to be moved, at any time in the day. Some banks are selectively opening up their systems to customers, employees, and others. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  •  Silicon Valley Bank plans to offer an API for payments by the end of the year.

The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 18. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages 5  5 September October  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 06  08  10  12  14  Source: The Riksbank  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15
For example, Etsy, the popular e-commerce website, which in many ways resembles a retail company, relies on technology to underpin its business model. But it’s not just New York City that is growing nicely. Employment levels on Long Island and in parts of upstate New York—most notably the Albany, Buffalo and Rochester metro areas—have also climbed and are at or near record highs. During my recent trip to upstate New York, I saw first-hand some of the positive developments in Rochester and Buffalo. After undergoing a prolonged period of economic transformation and reinvention, Rochester’s economy is now more diverse and dynamic than ever before. Meanwhile, the growth in Buffalo was striking. The numbers show a dramatic uptick in construction 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  employment, and the visual evidence of development was widespread. I was especially impressed with the downtown and waterfront areas, as well as the new SolarCity factory—all of which looked dramatically different than when I visited the area less than two years ago. Both of these places are well positioned for future success. On the other hand, the employment recovery has been slow to take hold in both Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, where jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak despite employment growing steadily. For Northern New Jersey, this lag is due, in part, to a stall in the growth of jobs in professional and business services. But the education and health sectors continue to add jobs, and construction employment is seeing a rebound.

William C Dudley: The regional economic outlook Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Economic Press Briefing, New York City, 26 August 2015. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Economic Press Briefing. I am pleased to have this opportunity to speak with you today about economic conditions in our District. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System. Tracking economic conditions in our region is an important part of our work here at the New York Fed. We need to understand how the diverse economies in our District are performing—from the metropolis of New York City and its surrounding areas, to rural communities in upstate New York and the tropical island of Puerto Rico. I take all of this to the table when the FOMC discusses business and economic conditions and trends. In addition, we provide our regional analysis to the public so that everyone can benefit from our work. At today’s briefing, we will share some of this work with you. As president of the New York Fed, I believe it is essential to listen firsthand to a broad set of businesses and people in the communities we serve to get as comprehensive a picture as possible of how our region is doing.
BIS Review 67/2000  4  Chart 3 Consumer confidence indicator and interest rate differential  Chart 3 illustrates the correlation between changes in the consumer confidence indicator and the differential between long-term and short-term interest rates since 1992. The consumer confidence indicator attempts to chart households’ confidence in and expectations concerning their own financial situation and the nation’s economy, and represents a leading indicator for private consumption. The differential between long-term and short-term interest rates is an indicator of the tightness of monetary policy. A negative differential means that short interest rates are higher than long rates, and may be taken as an indication that monetary policy is contractionary. The correlation between the interest rate differential and the consumer confidence indicator would seem to imply that monetary policy, at least in certain circumstances, has a swifter and stronger effect than previously assumed. The effects of monetary policy are channelled through the real economy and the exchange rate. As already mentioned, traditionally there has been a considerable lag before changes in the real economy have affected price and cost inflation. However, if expectations are reflected in household and enterprise behaviour, prices may be affected more swiftly. If price expectations are affected, the effect on the exchange rate will be intensified, since lower price inflation in isolation implies a stronger exchange rate. It is thus likely that there is a third channel which monetary policy can affect, which we may term the expectation channel.

By avoiding the deepest downturns, fewer people are likely to end up outside the labour force. But monetary policy cannot have a primary responsibility for the level of employment. Keeping the policy rate at a persistently low level with the aim of boosting activity and employment more permanently could lead to price and wage pressures and to a sharp increase in house prices and credit growth. This could give rise to imbalances that in turn increase the risk of a downturn and job losses further out. 18  CONCLUSION  NORGES BANK  In the quote from 1970, Erik Brofoss predicted a shift away from a resource-based economy. Fifty years later the structural shift is underway. Brofoss was optimistic about the way ahead, and he was clear about what the main source of progress is as he formulated in his speech:  ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 13 FEBRUARY 2020  “Now is the time to reap the fruits of our efforts in general education and vocational training to boost human capital.” Brofoss had high hopes for the coming generations of well-educated young people. The young workers in Brofoss’ day are now retired, or close to retirement. In the coming years, the dependency ratio will increase. The aim must therefore be to make structural changes without further declines in labour force participation. We also have reason to be optimistic despite an ageing population. We still have a highly skilled workforce. We have an economic policy framework that has served us well for nearly 20 years.
The significant progress that was achieved in financial sector reform and restructuring in 2001 has enabled BNM to shift its focus from managing banking sector problems to the medium and longer-term issues of developing a more competitive and resilient banking sector. The Financial Sector Masterplan that was launched in March 2001 aims to provide the blueprint for the development of financial sector over the next ten years. To date, 9 out of the 119 recommendations under the FSMP have been fully implemented. In addition, 22 recommendations are being implemented on an on-going basis. Outlook and Prospects for the Malaysian Economy in 2002 As we enter the year 2002, indications are that world trade is expected to recover to about 2.5% in 2002. Growth in the major industrial countries as a group is expected to stabilise at 1.1%, reflecting a stronger growth of 1.4% in the US economy. Malaysia is well positioned to benefit from the emerging recovery in the global economy. Real GDP growth in the Malaysian economy is projected to recover to 3.5% in 2002. The projection is based on stronger growth in private consumption, a modest recovery in private investment, sustained public sector expenditure and moderate growth in exports. Current domestic indicators suggest that the Malaysian economy is in the early stages of recovery. The index of leading indicators has shown positive growth for six consecutive months. Both the decline in exports and manufacturing production have also begun to moderate.

The benefits of these measures abound. For example, the fiscal deficit has been constrained to within the allowable limits of below 3% of GDP. Lower fiscal deficit coupled with prudent monetary policy have contributed to current low and stable inflation rate. As you are aware, annual inflation stood at 9.9% at end-December 2009 and further declined to close at 8.2% at end-July 2010. The growth in the economy has also been robust,  2  BIS Review 105/2010  underpinning the sustainability of policy reforms. Real economic growth has averaged above 5% for most part of the past decade. Concern has also been raised that Government borrowing competes with the private sector for scarce funds thereby pushing up interest rates and perpetuating the high cost of finance. However, in recent years, the Government has scaled down its domestic borrowing requirement in order to free resources for the private sector. On the other hand, due to banks appetite for risk free debt instruments, competition for government securities has intensified exerting a downward pressure on yield rates. Chairperson, these achievements attest to the importance Government attaches to reviving this economy and making Zambia a middle income country by the year 2030. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, part of the reason financial intermediation has been limited has been because of the inadequate supporting financial and legal infrastructure. A well developed financial infrastructure is essential for fostering investor participation and expanded access to financial services.
The improvements in the quality of the Spanish banking sector’s balance sheet and in its solvency levels in the last ten years have also clearly put it in a better position to absorb this crisis and to continue to provide the financing needed by the economy. The risks to the sector’s financial stability have been mitigated by the various economic policy measures adopted. Indeed, developments in credit, as I mentioned earlier, have differentiated this crisis from other episodes in the past. At the aggregate level, the volume of new lending and the outstanding balance of deposit institutions’ loans to the real economy have increased. This represents a notable change in trend compared with developments in bank lending in Spain since the last financial crisis. On data to 30 July 2020, total bank credit to non-financial corporations and households grew at a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, compared with the decline of 0.3% recorded until February 2020. This change in trend is largely attributable to credit to non-financial corporations which, as I said earlier, quickened substantially following the outbreak of the pandemic. Most of the financing obtained by firms has been used to shore up their liquidity buffers to meet future borrowing needs. In fact, the growth rate of firms’ bank deposits increased from slightly below 4% in February to 13% in June. By contrast, lending to households fell at a rate of 1.8% in June, whereas it was virtually flat in February.

Drawing on available estimates, the median of this indicator for the corporate sector as a whole is expected to fall from 3% pre-COVID-19 to virtually zero in 2020, in any of the macroeconomic scenarios considered by the Banco de España. Large firms are generally expected to suffer less pronounced falls in profitability. In any event, the operating deficit generated by many firms would lead to a deterioration of their financial position, resulting in lower own funds and higher debt to finance their liquidity needs. Thus, in the aforementioned early recovery scenario, the financial position of 55% of firms (with a weight of 51% in employment terms) would worsen in 2020, while in the more adverse scenario, this proportion would rise to 58%. However, despite this strong negative impact, around 40% of firms would continue to generate an operating surplus and to make new investments without a worsening of their financial position. In short, a significant number of firms are very likely to emerge from this crisis with higher debt levels and a diminished demand outlook, at least for some time. In this respect, it is also necessary to review the debt relief, restructuring and insolvency processes for firms, 5  with the aim of establishing pre-emptive, swift and simplified administrative procedures enabling them to pursue their business activity while they are still viable.
At the country level, however, it must be said that production, employment, wages and investment are growing strongly. Our economy is totally back on its feet after the global recession and the outlook is good. 5  I am convinced that our country must grow in a harmonious way and the benefits of progress must spread to all the country. Economic growth and global integration generate sectoral and regional adjustments; some economic activities expand and some contract, with all the associated tensions. This is what progress is all about. To mitigate the costs of sectoral adjustments – and, above all, the social costs involved – without hurting economic growth, public policies face a tremendous challenge, but the instruments with macroeconomic reach such as the exchange rate are ineffective when it comes to resolving sectoral difficulties. Next week we will be presenting our Monetary Policy Report. We hope that our economy will continue dynamic over the next 24 months, boosting higher income and employment for our people. Our role is to ensure that the process is sustainable in an environment of stable prices. We will watch over it taking every measure necessary. In this presentation I have shown all the factors that may explain parity adjustments. However, many of the elements now pressuring the exchange rate may be reversed in the long term. As a matter of fact, today the real exchange rate is around the minimum levels believed to be consistent with its long-term fundamentals, hence the importance we assign to this issue.

Annual wage growth has also slowed considerably after peaking early in the year. The savings rate has been recovering in the recent months after a considerable drop in the second and third quarters. Household deposits resumed growth driven by interest rates attractive for depositors. In this context, strong growth in retail lending underpins consumer demand without posing inflation risks. The evolution of the household behaviour model meets our expectations. However, more arguments call for a key rate hike. What are these arguments? They are associated with both external and domestic factors. External factors include, first, the state of the global economy as a whole and the situation in emerging markets. Certainly, global financial markets have been less volatile this quarter than they were in August and September. This is partially attributed to the revision of monetary policy projections by major central banks. The next year normalisation may prove slower than expected, thus mitigating the risk of capital outflow from emerging markets. However, it is important that the altered projections of policy revision by key central banks are associated with downgraded next year growth forecasts for major economies. Also, the current standstill in trade disputes may merely prove a temporary truce. These risks are quite tangible for emerging market economies. Second, we have here the oil glut risk in 2019. This is partially associated with a downward revision of the global demand outlook. However, the main reason is an aggressive expansion of oil production in the US.
On this occasion, a string of scientific and cultural events covering the whole year was organised, namely conferences on monetary issues, banking history seminars, exhibitions, stamp and coin issues, as well as cultural events reunited under the “The Cultural Days of the NBR” project inspired by the excellent cooperation with the European Central Bank in 2009. At this moment in its historical development, when the National Bank of Romania celebrates its 130th anniversary, the institution enjoys the status of a national central bank in the European Union. Our institution is a member of the European System of Central Banks and is currently making strenuous efforts for adopting the euro in the years ahead. If I were to find some key words to define the features of the National Bank of Romania, in fact what it stood for and what it still stands for today, these would certainly be the following: a sound, stable, trustworthy, reforming and dynamic institution. After 130 years, it is all the more relevant that the National Bank of Romania had its ups and downs, similarly to the history of Romania, which has also seen peaceful and progress periods followed by dramatic moments. The common denominator of all these was the fact that the National Bank of Romania has always provided support to the country in order to overcome the trying times. The institution we are celebrating today bore the brunt during World War One, having to cover all the related expenses.

Also, one of the lessons from the crisis was the need for higher financial literacy and awareness of financial risks, which among other things, required better tailored communication of statistics to different interest groups in society. Thus, in fact pandemics occurred in the midstream of our strivings to address the flaws in statistics revealed during the GFC. At the very beginning of the crisis, the official statistical process was threatened by a basic risk of disruption, so preserving continuity of statistics production was vital. Last year the World Bank conveyed a survey among National Statistical Offices to assess the initial impact of the health crisis on their functionality1. The key findings can be pinned down to several conclusions: 1) around 65% of the offices were fully or partially closed, and face to face data collection was stopped; 2) the ability to collect essential statistics and to meet international data reporting requirements was impacted, particularly in low income countries; 3) approximately two out of three national statistical offices altered their calendar of publication and data dissemination; and very importantly 4) many offices were adapting  1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  and responding to new data needs by changing collection modes, using alternative data sources, adding Covid related questions, as well as reducing content and samples of Surveys. These challenges have been equally relevant for central banks, being one of the pillars of the statistical production systems.