samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The group was tasked with examining the margin calls during the March and April 2020 stress period and their impact on market participants in derivatives and securities markets, and, in light of that assessment to make recommendations for future work on policy. In making the assessment, we were concerned essentially with four questions: First, what actually happened to margin during the period across a wide range of clearing services and asset classes, as well as in non-cleared derivatives? Second, did the dynamics of margin models lead to unnecessary pro-cyclicality and amplification of the liquidity stress? Third, were market participants adequately prepared for the increased margin requirements seen during the period of stress? Last, if market participants were not adequately prepared, was this due to a lack of availability of sufficient information on how margin might increase in market stress – or, was it was due to a lack of willingness to prepare or hold sufficient cash in reserve for such an eventuality? Before setting out the findings of this work and the next steps, it is worth making a few general points on margin. The aim of the reforms to margin standards after the Great Financial Crisis was to ensure that derivatives trades were prudently, transparently, and efficiently collateralised. One of the key drivers of the financial crisis was the opaque network of insufficiently margined bilateral 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  derivatives contracts and the impact of large margin calls – both actual and anticipated – on counterparty credit risk.

Sometimes we hear it said that the ECB should have a less accommodative monetary policy because it has created false incentives for governments. This reasoning is not in line with the spirit and the letter of the European Treaties. The ECB is not – and must not be – an instrument of fiscal policy. But we say to the countries in question that they should make the most of the current situation and of the gains stemming from the drop in interest rates to reduce their indebtedness rather than to spend more. Finally, do you think that the ECB will exit this state of emergency before you come to the end of your term? As far as the financial state of emergency is concerned, yes I do. The challenge now is to achieve long-term growth. So, the answer is no? Let’s just say that, increasingly, the challenges that Europe is facing are unrelated to monetary policy. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Let’s move on to the topic of Greece. Social discontent is on the rise, the negotiations between the Tsipras government and the “quartet” are already stalling over some points of the new financial rescue plan. Isn’t there a risk that the coming months will be turbulent? No one said it would be easy. The third programme, which was approved by the Greek Parliament, is extremely ambitious. It covers areas that previous governments had not dared to tackle, which call into question existing benefits, for example the battle against vested interests in some sectors.
Chart 1  300  300 Projections  250  250  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0  1970  1980 1990 2000 2010 2020  2030  Source: NB 2000 Legg inn filadresse her  Chart 2 Export value of oil as a share of total exports excluding ships and oil rigs. Per cent 50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99  Source: Norges Bank Legg inn filadresse her  BIS Review 121/1999  2  Chart 3 Government net cash flow from the petroleum sector as a share of GDP. Per cent 10  10  8  8 Projections  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  1980  1990  2000  2010  2020  2030  Source: NB 2000 and Norges Bank Legg inn filadresse her  Chart 4 Government budget surplus and Petroleum Fund surplus. In billions of NOK Ex.

Focusing on the last 15 years, somewhat larger fluctuations have been observed since 1997. In 1998 the price of oil dropped temporarily below $ per barrel. This year the price has increased substantially above the $ to $ a barrel price range that we consider a more “normal” level. 4. Fluctuating oil prices and economic stability: Dutch disease and the Government Petroleum Fund  Oil revenues increase consumption possibilities. However, it is a challenge to manage these resources in a way that increases welfare for current and future generations. A rapid expansion of the sheltered sector based on uncertain and perhaps temporary increases in petroleum revenues may lead to the situation called Dutch disease. The impact of oil price fluctuations on the exchange rate and on economic stability in general will depend on the speed at which petroleum revenues are used. In general, income can either be used now, or saved by accumulating assets abroad, so as to redistribute the increased income and thus consumption between generations. The income can be used to increase net imports while resources BIS Review 121/1999  4  from the internationally exposed sector are transferred to the sheltered sector. This will allow for increased consumption of both exposed and sheltered sector goods. If petroleum revenues are to be used for increased sheltered goods consumption, a real exchange rate appreciation will be needed to initiate the reallocation of resources to the sheltered sector.
Ardian Fullani: Recent economic and monetary developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the press conference on the Monetary Policy Decision of the Bank of Albania Supervisory Council, Tirana, 1 March 2012. *  *  *  Today, on 29 February 2012, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the monthly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the analyses of Albania’s latest economic and monetary developments and following discussions on their performance outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. The Supervisory Council deemed that this decision provides the appropriate monetary conditions to meet the inflation target over the medium term. Moreover, it provides the necessary monetary stimulus to the economy in Albania. (Let me now proceed with an overview of economic developments and main issues that were discussed at today’s meeting). *** Annual inflation rate was 1.6% in January, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. The annual inflation rates have been pursuing a downward trend since the second half of 2011, reflecting the mitigation of inflationary pressures from the supply side: cancelling out of effects from administered price rise; increase of domestic agricultural production; and slowdown of imported inflation. The downward annual inflation in January reflected the further decrease of imported inflation from the external sector of the economy, materialised in the lower contribution of the prices of processed goods and foods.

Concrete applications have included the treatment of acute inflammation and the healing of wounds (An et al (2009)); the optimal rest periods necessary to enhance bone formation; spread. 10  and the distribution, or “hallmarking”, of cancer cells and their  11  In the field of disease control, some recent major work in epidemiology has only been achievable through the use of ABMs. For example, using geographical data, commuting patterns, age distributions and other census derived information, an ABM was recently used to simulate the spread of an influenza pandemic across all 57 million of Italy’s inhabitants (Degli et al. (2008)). This approach could, in principle, be tailored to other epidemics on a country-by-country basis. In the treatment of patients, ABMs have been used as a tool for scheduling in Emergency Departments. Using data on the weekly distribution of patient arrivals and the number of physicians available, ABMs have been used to determine which combinations of resources reduce the ‘door-to-doc’ time for patients. 10 11 12  12  See Ausk, Gross and Srinivasan (2006). For more, see Mansury et al. (2002). See Jones and Evans (2008). 17  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  17  Figure 10: Friesian Cattle  Figure 11: Bio-medical science  Source: Keith Weller/USDA (public domain). Holstein cow (image available here). Source: National Institutes of Health (public domain). Medical Laboratory Scientist (image available here).
But at the same time the Chancellor confirmed the Bank’s continuing responsibility for the stability of the financial system as a whole, so that in fact what this has done - as in relation to monetary policy - is to distinguish and clarify the respective roles: of the Bank, which now focuses upon systemic risk - and retains its lender of last resort role within parameters that are broadly defined by the legislation; of the FSA which oversees both the prudential and business conduct of all individual financial institutions, including the banks, with the emphasis on consumer protection; and the Treasury, which has ultimate responsibility for both these dimensions. The new arrangements make a good deal of sense in the UK context where traditional distinctions between banks and other types of financial institution have progressively eroded and where there has been a general movement towards greater consumer protection across a much broader front. But at the same time as clarifying our respective responsibilities, and providing in each case for transparency and separate accountability for the way in which they are carried out, the new legislation recognises the vital importance of close coordination between them and establishes a framework for that. It is early days to assess the effectiveness of these arrangements, but my impression is that so far they are working well.

However, the purchasing managers’ index has fallen more than expected, which indicates that the slowdown may be greater than estimated (see Figure 10). The labour force survey statistics show that the labour market continued to improve in June. Employment rose by just over 2 per cent, compared with the same month last year, and unemployment fell, when seasonally-adjusted, to 7.5 per cent. This was a marginally smaller  2  See Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly”, SNS, 2010. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  improvement than we were counting on in July (unemployment 0.1 of a percentage point higher). CPI inflation was 3.3 per cent in July. CPIF inflation (1.6 per cent) and CPIF inflation excluding energy (1.1 per cent) were much lower. All of these outcomes were marginally (0.1 of a percentage point) lower than expected. I said at the monetary policy meeting in July that there was still a risk that inflation would increase more than we were expecting, particularly in 2012 and 2013. This was partly because inflation had recently been held back extra hard by the strengthening of the krona. I also pointed to the risk of rising energy and commodity prices in the world market, higher wage increases than expected due to pressure in the labour market, and higher inflation and wage expectations due to the high CPI inflation. But so far, inflation has been marginally lower than expected and energy and commodity prices have fallen.
The remittance flows have further increased to $ 1,726.7 mn by end September 2006 and a 20% increase is expected by the year end. Remittances provide income support to families and opportunities for un-skilled workers to travel, improve skills, earn foreign exchange and engage in self-employment afterwards. It is estimated that about 1.3 mn Sri Lankan migrant workers are employed in different countries in various capacities. The banking sector, the government as well as the country as a whole benefit from worker remittances. The country uses remittances for payment of imports, goods and services while the banks invest remittances in foreign currency bonds issued by the government. That helps the government's foreign borrowing programme. More recently, the government resorted to issuing of foreign currency denominated bonds and attracted a significant part of worker remittances through banks. In addition, the banks also use worker remittances for their foreign currency trades and investments. If not for remittance inflows, Sri Lanka would have been severely affected by the increase in oil prices that raised the oil bill by three times in 2006. The enhanced remittance inflows also reduced pressure in the foreign exchange market and hence on the exchange rate.

Principle III: Remittance services should be supported by a sound, predictable, non-discriminatory and proportionate legal and regulatory framework The implementation of this principle requires special laws and regulations for remittances, while the existing or new laws should be sound, predictable, non-discriminatory and proportionate. Specially, for remittance corridors, (e.g. US-Mexico, US-Brazil, the Middle East-Philippines) both sending and receiving countries should cooperate with each other to sort out legal obstacles in transferring remittances. It is also noteworthy to consider avoiding dangers of over-regulation in remittance transfers. The Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Acts can also deter some of the cross-border money transfers. The authorities responsible for implementation of these legislation should be mindful of the need to use judgment in dealing with genuine remittances. Principle IV: Competitive market conditions, including appropriate access to domestic payment infrastructures, should be fostered in the remittance industry. This requires the avoidance of exclusivity conditions as imposed on an agent choosing to offer only one remittance service and to promote several direct /indirect access to domestic payment systems in the country. Here too, the central banks have a role to play. The central banks and supervisors should  BIS Review 3/2007  5  work with competitive authorities to ensure consistent approaches and discourage exclusivity conditions. It is also important for supervisors to ensure that money transfer systems are not unnecessarily anti-competitive. Principle V: Remittance services should be supported by appropriate governance and risk management practices Good governance and risk management practices by all stakeholders make remittance service safer and help protect consumers.
Lower demand in turn curbs the rise in prices and wages. Higher interest rates make it more attractive to invest in NOK and borrow in foreign currency. Therefore, higher interest rates normally lead to an appreciation of the krone. This makes imported goods cheaper. In addition, a strong krone reduces activity, profitability and the ability to pay in the internationally exposed sector. Expectations in the US as to how far the interest rate will fall have been adjusted downwards considerably since summer 2002. Last summer, market participants expected the key rate in the US to be increased to about 5 per cent towards the end of 2004. Now interest rates are believed to have reached their lowest level and are expected to remain at 1 per cent until the end of 2003, with a gradual rise to about 2.5 per cent in 2005. Clearer signs of the expected upswing have emerged recently, however. GDP grew by 3.1 per cent (seasonally adjusted, annual rate) in the second quarter. Optimism among participants in the financial markets is increasing; both equity prices and long-term interest rates have risen. Despite improvement in the US economy, some aspects still give rise to uncertainty as to whether the expected upswing will be sustained. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing is still low. The household saving ratio is low and household debt is high. The current account is showing a large deficit.

Svein Gjedrem: Monetary policy and the economic situation Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 2 September 2003. The text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The speech is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 13 August and on previous speeches. The Charts in pdf can be found on the Norges Bank’s website. *  *  *  The operational target of monetary policy as defined by the Government is inflation of close to 2.5 per cent over time. The inflation target provides economic agents with an anchor for their decisions concerning saving, investment, budgets and wages. The inflation target is a vehicle for monetary policy’s contribution to stabilising output and employment. This intention is also expressed in the Regulation on Monetary Policy. High demand for goods and services and labour shortages normally point to higher inflation. When interest rates are increased, demand falls and inflation is kept at bay. When demand is low and unemployment rises, inflation will tend to slow. Interest rates will then be reduced. Norges Bank sets the interest rate so that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target of 2½ per cent. The interest rate has been reduced since December last year in response to the change in the inflation outlook.
IOSCO is consulting on a set of metrics for measuring leverage. To be most decision-useful, these need to be consistent and comprehensive across countries. The upcoming FSB-IOSCO evaluation of implementation and effectiveness of recommendations to address liquidity mismatch in funds will be crucial to improve our understanding of best practice, including the merits of adjustments to redemption periods to be more consistent with investments. We are mindful that these decisions could have global as well as local implications. And we would welcome the IIF’s contributions to informing these judgements. The GFSN Better surveillance, a more resilient core of the financial system and a macroprudential approach to marketbased finance will all help increase sustainable capital flows, but they will be most effective if they are underpinned by an adequate GFSN. Pooling resources at the IMF is much more efficient than individual countries self-insuring against Capital Flows-at-Risk, distributing the costs across all 189 member countries. To maintain reserve adequacy in the face of future larger and more risky external balance sheets, EMEs would need to double their current level of reserves over the next 10 years – an increase of $ trillion. A better alternative would be to hold $ trillion in  Estimates are based on the FSB’s measure of ‘collective investment vehicles with features that make them susceptible to runs’, see FSB Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2018.

Chart 8: EM foreign currency debt as a share of GDP Per cent of GDP 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 95  97  99  01  03  05  07  09  11  13  15  17  (a) Excludes China, non-bank borrowers only. Sources: IIF and BIS. Despite these vulnerabilities, the Bank’s analysis finds that, for EMEs as a whole, reforms to domestic institutional “pull factors” have substantially increased the sustainability of capital flows and so shifted the distribution of capital flows to the right (Chart 9), all else equal. 9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  Chart 9: Pull factors have reduced Capital Flows-at-Risk for EMEs since the Asian Financial Crisis Probabilty density 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04  B  A  0.02 0.00 -8  -6  -4  -2  0  2  4  6  8  10  12  14  16  18  Capital flows as a % of GDP 2008-2018 Post-2008 crisis  Asian Financial Crisis  Sources: IMF and Bank staff calcluations. Notes: Chart shows the contribution of pull factors to capital flows to EMEs during the Asian Financial Crisis (purple), and since 2008 (green). In both distributions push factors are held at their sample average, so only pull factors are changing. See chart 5 and annex for further details. Push factors Unfortunately for EMEs, all else has not been equal.
Such transparency and accountability is likely to enhance the credibility of the Central Bank and well anchor inflation expectations, resulting in increased economic stability and supporting high economic growth and increased international competitiveness of Sri Lanka. Meanwhile continued commitment by the government towards greater fiscal discipline and stronger fiscal position remains key to the successful adoption of flexible inflation targeting. Therefore, the Central Bank will continue to support government’s efforts to reduce the debt to GDP ratio to 70 per cent by 2020 and 22  curtail budget deficits at 3.5 per cent of GDP from 2020. The government’s intention to strengthen the Fiscal Management (Responsibility) Act is very encouraging in this regard. In conclusion, I would like to take you back to the beginning of Central Banking in Sri Lanka. In 1949, John Exter, the founder of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, in his “Report on the Establishment of a Central Bank for Ceylon” stated as follows: “The decision of the government of Ceylon to establish a central bank was a decision with far reaching implications for the people of Ceylon. One implication already stands out very clearly: in taking steps to establish an independent monetary system to be administered by a central bank the government has demonstrated unmistakably its intention to achieve genuine economic freedom as a corollary of the political freedom achieved a year and a half ago.

The British economy is facing strong pressure of demand on supply capacity, on the one hand, and low inflation, below the 2% target, on the other. Whether that combination can or will continue is, as I argued earlier, not easy to know. Since our August Inflation Report, the rise in oil prices, now at their highest level in real terms for twenty years, has moderated somewhat the outlook for the world economy. And there have been two developments at home, with conflicting implications for inflation. First, there are some signs that the economy is experiencing a softer patch after rapid growth in the first half of the year, even if the official production data are not entirely easy to square with business surveys. Second, sterling has fallen significantly, by some 4% on its effective rate against all other currencies, from its previous high level, and there is continuing rapid expansion of total money spending, broad money and credit. Looking ahead the MPC will have to balance the impact on inflation of this evidence of weaker activity against the fall in sterling and other signs of cost pressures. The implications for interest rates will depend on developments in the economy which the MPC will monitor carefully both in the official figures and through our regular visits to this and other parts of the United Kingdom. So, if you are interested in the future path of interest rates, don’t read my lips, read the economic data!