samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
If wage growth were as low as the level achieved partly through incomes policy in the mid1990s, and other things being equal, the interest rate would probably have to be set in such a way that the krone would fall in value in order to bring inflation up to 2.5%. Lower wage growth will also, other things being equal, provide room for higher production in the public sector within the fiscal policy guideline. Inflation and the output gap Percentage price rise and output gap as a percentage of trend GDP  20 15 10  Consumer price inflation  5 0  Output gap -5 1970  1974  1978  1982  1986  1990  1994  1998  2002  Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Relationships in monetary policy Exchange rate Norges Bank's interest rates  Consumption Investment  JB 7. februar 2003  Imported price inflation  Consumer price inflation  Employment Output  Wages and margins  Effects of a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate over 2 years. Percentage change in mainland GDP 0 -0 .2 5 -0.5 -0 .7 5 -1 Year  -1 .2 5 1  2  3  4  Source: Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Effects of a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate over 2 years.

Percentage points 0 .2 0 .1 -0  Year 1  Year 2  -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .6 Source: Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Sub-index model  RIMINI  RIMINI  Year 3  Isolated effect on consumer price inflation of a persistent rise in labour costs of 1 percentage point 0 .8  Year 4  Year 3  0 .6 Year 2  0 .4 Year 1  0 .2  0 Source: Norges Bank JB 7. februar 2003  Annual wage growth1) and unemployment2) Per cent  1 0 .0 8 .2 7 .7  8 .0  10  Unemployment 6 .2  5 .8  6 .0  5 .1 4 .4  4 .0 2 .9  2 .7  8  Annual wage growth  6 .7  3 .0  5 .3  5 .5  5.83)  6  4 .3 3 .1  2 .9  3 .2  3 .6 3 .1  2 .0  4 2  0 .0  0 1 9 93 1 9 94 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2  1) Average for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days 2) Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes.
You might have supposed that this would have weakened the exchange rate, 1  BIS Review 7/2000  shielding us in some degree from weakening external demand growth - but not a bit of it - the exchange rate actually strengthened! But the easing of monetary policy may have helped to reverse the sharp fall in domestic confidence evident throughout the UK economy in the second half of 1998, and to avert the widely predicted slide into recession. In any event, after coming to a virtual stand-still in the fourth quarter of 1998, the economy as a whole bounced back last year, driven largely by domestic demand growth. And, for the economy as a whole, we can now, since 1992, point to the longest period of sustained low inflation - averaging 2.7% on the Government’s target measure, with relatively steady annual growth averaging 2.8% - well above most estimates of our long-term trend rate, together with a sustained rise in the number of people in employment - to an all-time high and an almost continuous month-by-month fall in the rate of unemployment to the lowest rate for about 20 years. But if the performance of the economy as a whole has been relatively encouraging over this period, that is clearly not the case for every sector of the economy. And I am only too well aware that the internationally-exposed sectors - most of agriculture, much of manufacturing industry and some services sectors - wherever they are located within the UK, have suffered.

The Government is also keen to reduce market impediments in order to help expedite the development of the bond market. Therefore, this year can be a year of many opportunities where a lot of progress can be made. And to foster its success, a close cooperation between the public sector and the private sector will be vital so that progress made in the bond market will be consistent with the needs and the expectation of the private sector. This is important because, at some point in the longer-term, development of the bond market will need to be driven by market rather than by policy. Hence, your active contribution and cooperation will be vital in fostering the success in the development of the Thai bond market in the longer-term. BIS Review 29/2005  3
In common with supervisors in the more developed markets, we face the challenge of limited internal resources and expertise with which to implement the IRB Approach. Moreover, banks and supervisors are often competing between themselves for the relevant expertise. In addition, the support to supervisors in Asia from external parties, such as academia, vendors, consulting firms and rating agencies, is more limited than in the developed markets. Finally, both banks and supervisors face a very steep learning curve in familiarising themselves with  2  BIS Review 120/2007  the basic concepts and techniques on which the IRB Approach relies, and need to become more conversant with these types of risk management technique. A particularly important issue to consider that is highly relevant to today’s event is the standards that bank supervisors will apply in deciding whether or not to approve a bank to use the IRB Approach. To ensure that the capital charges computed by the IRB systems are sufficient for banks to withstand the credit risks they have incurred and to absorb the potential losses resulting from borrower defaults, the estimates of the risk components must be accurate in capturing the relevant aspects of risk. As a consequence, validation of banks’ estimates of the risk components, and the underlying internal rating systems, is crucial to the implementation of the IRB Approach. This is one of the greatest implementation challenges confronting bank supervisors in Asia, where the development and understanding of the IRB Approach by banks is generally still at an early stage.

Foreign direct investment in Algeria is a relatively recent development and has notably followed the achievement of balance of payments viability. For the past six years (2003–2008), total FDIs amounted $ billion 8.7, of which 47.3% from EU countries and  BIS Review 168/2009  3  25.2% from Asian and Middle-Eastern and North African countries. The share of FDIs in the hydrocarbon sector in total FDIs, which reached 55% in 2005, has gradually declined to 42% on average during the recent years. Non-hydrocarbon sectors which attracted FDIs include the banking sector, chemical industry, food industry, electricity sector, water desalination, and construction material. The exchange rate policy is conducted by the Bank of Algeria in the context of a managed float regime of the dinar vis-à-vis the currencies of Algeria’s main trade partners. Since 2004, with a real effective exchange rate (REER) around the equilibrium level as determined by the economy’s fundamentals, exchange rate policy is well in line with external stability, the latter being anchored to a notably strong net external financial position. In operational terms, the Bank of Algeria intervenes in the interbank market to ensure that movements in the nominal exchange rate do not affect the long term equilibrium of the real effective exchange rate of the dinar.
It is for this reason, for example, that the Bank of Zambia has supported the work of journalists in understanding economic issues and supported their associations in improving the standard of journalism in Zambia. Further, the Bank of Zambia publishes its own inhouse magazine “THE ZAMBANKER” as well as more technical economic articles mainly written by staff on topical issues in the Zambian economy in “THE BoZ READER”. Although most of the articles have been written by staff in the Bank, we have always encouraged the public to contribute articles on issues relating to the Zambian economy. In this regard, I wish to once more extend an invitation to you all to contribute articles for publication in the ZAMBANKER or indeed the BoZ READER. BIS Review 74/2008  1  Distinguished Guests, In order to effectively address the issue of how to secure a sustainable economic future, the first point of call must surely be to address the issue of illiteracy in Zambia. A good number of our citizens especially those living in the rural areas are not able to read both in English or local languages. This is a major hindrance to sustainable economic development, as it makes it very difficult to transfer new technologies and skills to the rural populace – skills that are critical in improving health and education outcomes and harnessing the tremendous potential that this country possesses. The scenario in the urban areas, though slightly better than the rural areas, still leaves much to be desired.

Christian Noyer: Globalisation of capital markets Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at Paris Europlace, International Financial Forum, Tokyo, 27 November 2007. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, It is a great honour and a pleasure for me to speak before such a distinguished audience and I am delighted to be in Tokyo today. In the last decades, global economic growth, financial innovation and financial globalisation have progressed hand in hand. This does not exclude, of course, challenging episodes of stress, such as the current one. Financial globalisation is not a new phenomenon, but the scale and speed of the current phase of globalisation is unprecedented; cross-border and cross-market links are deeper than ever before. Events are still unfolding, but the dynamics of the current crisis has been a live experiment of how globalisation has modified the reaction of the financial system to shocks. The magnitude of possible losses is, in many respects, contained. Current estimates put the direct cost of subprime defaults at around 250 billions USD. It is significant but bearable, especially starting from a point of very favourable economic conditions and high profitability. Still, what began as a sound correction of the undervaluation of risks in the subprime market unravels as one of the major financial crisis of the past 10 years. Some scenarios considered as very remote crystallised on a large scale, while widely expected break-up points held up well. Hedge funds, once considered as a source of systemic risk, fared better than regulated institutions.
The expansionary monetary policy stance was strengthened by the announcement that the ECB expects official interest rates to remain at or below the new level for a prolonged period. Along with these external factors, the Spanish economy has also benefited from other developments that have helped temper the contractionary pressures on demand and activity during this year. Household spending began 2013 weighed down by the impact of the decline in employment on income from work and by the debt-reduction process. However, as the year unfolded,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  improved confidence and the somewhat less unfavourable state of the labour market have meant that private consumption has begun to pick up. Further, according to the available indicators, investment in equipment has posted increases in the first nine months of the year. In a setting in which sluggish domestic demand, ongoing corporate deleveraging and the restrictions on access to financing continue to check investment, this improvement stems, above all, from the strong pace of goods and services exports, which would have led to greater investment activity by exporting firms. Moreover, construction, as a whole, has continued shrinking, owing to the adjustment in residential investment and in public works. General government consumption spending has also carried on falling. As a result, national demand has continued to decline, albeit at a progressively slacker pace. The positive contribution of the external sector to activity has increased in 2013.

In terms of agents, an improvement of 0.3 pp of GDP is considered for social security funds and the regional governments, to 1.1% and 1%, respectively, while central government might post a deficit of 3.7% of GDP, compared with the figure of 3.8% projected for 2013; local government should run a balanced budget. The target for 2014 entails an improvement in the general government structural balance of between 0.1 and 0.3 pp of GDP. Following the considerable adjustment made in the past two years, when the structural deficit was cut by 6 pp of GDP, the budgetary plans for 2014 are more conducive to the entrenchment of the recovery and compliance therewith will help maintain agents’ confidence in fiscal consolidation. On the expenditure side, three budgetary items – namely pensions, unemployment benefits and the burden of interest on public debt – will continue to influence budgetary programming, given that they account for almost 50% of total overall general government spending. The adjustment is centred, in fact, on government consumption, with a projected reduction of 0.4 pp in total spending on general government employee compensation, owing to the wage freeze for civil servants and to the prolongation of the austerity policies governing public-  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  sector employment; and of 0.3 pp in intermediate consumption, further to the maintenance of the restrictions on goods and services purchases at all levels of government.
Competition within Sweden has also sharpened, which has increased the need for greater efficiency in many sectors. For example, our assessment is that increased establishment of low-price supermarket chains contributed to a fall in food prices in 2005. Should the interest rate have been cut further? It is clear that structural changes in the economy have in many ways held down inflation and created scope to cut the repo rate to historically low levels (diagram 9). From time to time there has been criticism which says that we should have cut the repo rate even more. The fact that such a discussion arises when inflation is well below the target level is not in itself surprising. However, it is important to have realistic expectations as to what monetary policy can achieve. Changes of a structural nature are difficult to capture at an early stage of the forecasting work as it takes some time before it becomes clear that the changes are not merely transient factors. This is one reason that needs to be recognised why inflation may deviate from the target level. One indication of the difficulties in making accurate forecasts is that inflation in 2005 was overestimated by in principle all forecasters (diagram 10). A comparison indicates, if anything, that the Riksbank was among the first forecasters to take into account the effects that have subdued inflationary pressures. Some analysts have periodically advocated a somewhat faster rate for interest rate cuts than that chosen by the Riksbank. However, the difference has on average been small.

The lessons we derived from this experience will lead global decision makers to reconsider their policies. We have already started to observe critical and permanent changes in global financial order. The future of the financial system will be in a much better shape with a pre-emptive approach. The coordination is especially needed in terms of better regulation and supervision of financial market instruments. In order for the mission of the COMCEC and thus of the Organization of the Islamic Conference to be successful, it is necessary for the decision making mechanisms to acquire a more active and global dimension. The success of the economy policies of the Islamic counties under the roof of the COMCEC depends on the formation of measures to increase trust and establishment of a close cooperation in economic and commercial areas. Annual meetings of the Governors of the Central Banks of the COMCEC countries will be very important in terms of catching up with the world’s agenda and following the recent developments. Economic activities of the related countries will be supported the most by increasing the cooperation between the central banks of the COMCEC countries, enhancing the functioning of the active mechanisms of communication in international platforms and sharing the experiences. The recovery of the economies of the Islamic countries will be fastened by increasing the exchange of information in the fields of economy, finance and banking among the member and observer countries’ central banks and financial authorities.
Likewise, a  4  Winje, H. and L.T. Turtveit (2014): “Norwegian banks’ adjustment to higher capital requirements”, Norges Bank Staff Memo 14/2014. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  pronounced economic downturn with increased bank losses can be addressed by lowering both the key policy rate and the capital buffer. In other situations, it may be appropriate to reduce the key policy rate while at the same time raising the level of the capital buffer. If, for instance, there are prospects that inflation will become too low at the same time as debt and house prices are rising rapidly, the key policy rate will be reduced, in line with its primary task of maintaining a nominal anchor for the economy. Unwarranted negative effects on financial stability of lower interest rates could in this case be counteracted by raising the level of the countercyclical buffer. Macroprudential policy and stricter banking regulation help to reduce systemic risk, but we cannot act on the assumption that tighter regulation alone will suffice to prevent future crises. Monetary policy, on the other hand, has well-documented effects on house prices and debt. Thus, monetary policy deliberations at Norges Bank give weight to mitigating the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. By taking financial stability considerations into account, we seek better, more stable outcomes for inflation and output in the longer run. A simple analytical framework can serve to illustrate this point. Chart: Framework Consider a central bank with a flexible inflation targeting regime.

Weak growth in Switzerland, however, may be explained mainly by the conspicuous productivity gap between the innovative export sector and the domestic sector set in its traditional structures. The reason for this lethargy of the domestic sector is a dense network of regulations which limit competition and obstruct technical progress. The result is an excessively high domestic price level from which not only consumers but also exporters suffer. Growth-promoting measures must therefore aim primarily at wedging impediments to competition in the domestic sector. BIS Review 49/2003  1
But our present degree of knowledge means that, in the terminology of Frank Knight (1921), there is both risk, which can be quantified, and uncertainty, which cannot. The extent of past uncertainty about life expectancy can be seen in the revisions to its forecasts made over the past 20 years by the Government Actuary’s Department. Nor has the financial sector itself proved better at forecasting. Chart 5 shows successive forecasts of expected length of life for men aged 60 published by the Actuarial Profession, a body of life assurance companies and annuity providers. It shows how reductions in mortality were expected by the industry to lead to rises in length of life. For example, the pink line shows the Actuarial Profession forecast made in 1980 that a man who was 60 in that year could expect to live another 20 years. At that time, it was thought that someone who reached 60 in 1999 would live a further 21 years. But by 1999 the forecast was that a man of 60 would live another 26 years. Over a twenty year period, expected length of life was revised up by 5 years. Length of life has risen faster than the industry anticipated, as can be seen by the  5  The first estimates of mortality rates using bills of mortality from the City of London were published by John Graunt in 1662.

Similarly, the advances in financial engineering and improved expertise have allowed the introduction of new hedging instruments to facilitate risk management. Significant enhancements have been achieved in the measurement of market risk where the use of internal value-at-risk models is fast becoming the industry standard. The advances in the quantitative approach to the management of market risks have also expanded to the areas of credit as well as operational risks. Despite the significant data constraints, new research has strengthened the theoretical foundation for internal credit and operational risk modeling. The development of new hedging instruments such as credit derivatives has also increased the use of credit risk transfer mechanisms within the financial system, thus promoting more active credit portfolio risk management. Key developments have also taken place in the area of operational risk. The  BIS Review 21/2004  1  experience of large corporate failures due to fraud and lapses in internal controls has focused greater attention on improving operational risk management in banking institutions. This has prompted the need for banking institutions to provide capital for operational risk and to put in place a more integrated risk management framework on an enterprise-wide basis. The essence of the new accord Ladies and Gentlemen, The efforts of the BIS to introduce an enhanced framework for capital adequacy regulation through Basel II is in the context of these developments. The accord seeks to bring into greater alignment the more advanced concept of capital management into the regulatory equation.
Moreover, the Government Bill (1997/98:40) lays down that in order to increase the possibility of democratic control, the statutory objective should be given its specific content by the Riksbank. Furthermore, in the prefatory documents it is said that as an authority under parliament, the Riksbank shall self-evidently support the general goals of economic policy, for example sustainable growth and full employment, in so far as they do not conflict with the objective of price stability. It was not considered necessary to legislate these obligations. 2. The inflation target and price effects of deregulations  Market deregulation can have considerable effects on price formation. The immediate effect of a deregulation is often that the price falls, sometimes almost at once, so that the rate of inflation is lowered for the time being. All else equal, the rate of inflation then returns to the initial level as the months on which the statistical comparison is based move forward. Normally, however, deregulations also affect the conditions for competition and price formation in the longer run. I should add here that rising competitive pressure can also affect productivity but the economic effect of productivity growth is something I shall be considering later. A particular, limited deregulation need not call for measures of monetary policy.

If a deregulation stems from political decisions that could not be predicted, or its effects on inflation are calculated to disappear in less than one to two years, it will not elicit a reaction from the Riksbank as long as the rule of action is adhered to. The situation is different, however, if the economy goes through a series of deregulations or the price effects of a single deregulation continue for several years. This may lead to inflation being below the target more permanently, which in turn ought to lead, according to the rule of action, to a downward adjustment of the instrumental rate. The stimulus from monetary policy acts through the usual channels. So all else equal, one can expect a fall in market interest rates, rising share prices, a stronger expansion of credit and so on. General demand rises, employment moves up, unemployment falls and the inflation target is fulfilled. When the price effects have waned, there is a risk, if nothing else intervenes, of inflation rising above the target. To counter this, monetary policy responds by gradually increasing the instrumental rate again. Market interest rates move up, share prices fall and the growth of credit slackens. In other words, the customary transmission mechanism now works in the opposite direction, leading to some fall in production and employment as well as in resource utilisation. Another component of the process is the higher inflation’s limiting effect on household real income, just as the lower inflation benefited household income.