31.08.2019  The European economic policy response to a scenario of lower growth and inflation La Granda Summer Courses Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Distinguished rector, honourable mayor, academic authorities, dear students, ladies and gentlemen. Let me begin by extending my particular thanks to Professor Velarde for his kind invitation to participate in the closure of the 2019 La Granda summer courses. It is an honour for me to be here in this building, whose doors are open to all those interested in discussing and delving into the essential issues ever-present in these courses. Today I would like to share some thoughts with you on the complex economic outlook the European Union (EU) and, in particular, the countries comprising the euro area currently face. This is at a time when free trade, the bedrock of the European project and an essential source of the improvements in economic well-being in recent decades, is subject to continuous threats. I shall first describe the latest economic developments and the main challenges ahead. Then I shall analyse what, in my opinion, the economic policy responses to these challenges should be. The return of protectionism Only two years ago the global environment was a favourable one. It was marked by a synchronised expansion of the emerging and advanced economies, reflected in the highly robust world trade performance. But the international economic setting turned more unfavourable in 2018. This situation has run into 2019 to date, with a slowdown in growth (acutely so in manufacturing) and, in particular, in trade.

Of relevance is that excessive risk-taking behaviours featured prominently as a key factor contributing to the Crisis. In addition, what makes the Global Financial Crisis different is the extent of the economic and financial inter-linkages within and across borders, which explains the far-reaching impact of the crisis. While the greater interconnectedness of economies and financial systems has brought about opportunities, it has also resulted in greater risks. The Global Financial Crisis has resulted in the re-assessment of how policymakers view the achievement of macroeconomic and financial stability. There is a growing recognition that emerging risks to macroeconomic and financial stability have to be identified and managed in a more holistic and effective manner. As the economy and financial system grow in complexity, policymakers have to strengthen the understanding of the macroeconomic and financial inter-linkages in order to be able to effectively assess the implications of any potential risk on the economy. Before the Global Financial Crisis, the predominant view was that unfettered markets, selfcorrections and minimal interventions would deliver the best economic outcomes. However, recent experiences have shown that policy interventions to correct market misalignments after a crisis may prove too late as the aftermath could be extremely costly. This, therefore, call for policies to be pre-emptive rather than reactive. For policymakers, the aim is to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability, and build the country’s resilience to shocks. Macroeconomics stability is a very important prerequisite for businesses and individuals to undertake economic activities.