samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Vittorio Corbo: Recent trends and perspectives for the Chilean economy Speech by Mr Vittorio Corbo, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the Seminar “Business and Economic vision 2007-2008”, organized by Sofofa and Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, 17 October 2007. *  *  *  The insertion of the Chilean economy into global markets has implied that its economic cycle has been determined by a mix of domestic macroeconomic policies, world economic events and by idiosyncratic conditions, such as recent energy supply shocks. In recent years, the prominent external environment for the Chilean economy has been favorable. On the one hand, a rising demand and high prices of our exports, and on the other hand, low import prices of consumption and capital goods. In addition, firms have also faced favorable financing conditions. In this presentation I will start by discussing the outlook for the World Economy. Next, I will discuss recent trends in the Chilean economy and, finally, some reflections on the conduct of monetary policy and the main risks we currently face. Perspectives of the world economy The last five years have been the best five-year period in growth, inflation and financial conditions that the World Economy has experienced in over 30 years. However, this scenario has been changing in the recent months.

Third: Market functioning I have to mention first the assessment of the role of credit rating agencies, their small number, the transparency of their rating methodology, possible conflicts of interest in particular as regards structured finance instruments. Excessive exclusive reliance on credit ratings by investors without carrying out due diligence or conducting further own risk assessment is a problem as well. The road map also includes a reflection on the consequences of the originate and distribute model of banks for credit markets. Does it induce wrong incentives? A last item in this list relates to non-regulated debt markets and mortgage markets, which might deserve a hard look in the light of recent experience. Finally: The regulatory framework Above all, liquidity risk management relating to complex structured products needs to be investigated. We need a wider concept of concentration risk including wholesale and interbank markets as well as intragroup exposures. We have to look at warehousing and pipeline risk, deal with possible regulatory incentives to move risk off balance sheet into SPVs. We have to assess the links between the regulated and the non-regulated part of the system, including the optimal perimeter of supervision. Special purpose investment vehicles and conduits were used as off-balance sheet investment vehicles. These were prone to liquidity mismatches between their assets and liabilities, causing contingent credit and liquidity lines to be drawn on banks, and resulting in an increased demand for money market liquidity.
There are clear needs for developing other channels of financial intermediation in the longer term, in order to promote diversification and ensure financial stability and sustainable growth. However while the capital markets on the Mainland are still in their nascent stage and face some difficulties in development, the banking system will remain the most important channel of financial intermediation in the foreseeable future. Thus, those engaged in the banking sector will continue, for a long period of time, to play an important role in ensuring the effective intermediation of funds. Given the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment, the banking sector professionals face a difficult task in achieving this mission. The changes involved in this broad picture include supervisory policies for the banking sector, relationship between the regulatory authority and banks, and governance arrangements of individual banks. In line with the government’s reform and open policies and under the supervision of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Mainland banks have become increasingly commercialized. Banking professionals have progressed from their former mode of following the authorities’ policy instructions to a more active role in assessment of loan applications before making credit decisions. This is not an easy change. It involves both time and considerable adjustment in the thinking. Besides, good tools are a must for a good job: bank employees have to increase their knowledge of the banking business in a market economy and enhance their professional standards.

(ii) Data disclosure and stress test methodologies, in order to measure more and more precisely and credibly climate-related risks of financial institutions. It is a prerequisite before possibly deciding about additional capital requirements. For these tasks, believe me: we in NGFS are ready to “roll up our sleeves”, and still have the enthusiasm of the pioneers. ** In conclusion, acceleration has been the name of the game since 2017. Still, we should further accelerate in 2021. We have an exceptional political alignment, with major international milestones: the COP26 of course, but also a G7 summit in June, a G20 conference in July in Venice, and a G20 summit in October in Rome. It is time for all policy makers – us included – to be up to Hans Jonas requirement, for the future wholeness of Man. Thank you for your attention. i  Hans Jonas, The Imperative of Responsibility: In Search of an Ethics for the Technological Age. Responsible Investment Report of the Banque de France 2019, June 2020. iii “Progress report on bridging data gaps”, NGFS Report, 26 May 2021. iv “The role of central banks in the greening of the economy”, Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, 11 February 2021 v “Adapting central bank operations to a hotter world: Reviewing some options”, NGFS Report, 24 March 2021. ii
Mr Erçel talks about the Turkish banking system Speech by the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Mr Gazi Erçel, on the occasion of the American Turkish Council meeting in Ankara on 18 March 1999. First, I would like to thank the ATC arranging this gathering in Ankara. I am very pleased to be here today, and I would like to talk about the Turkish banking system. Let me begin by recalling that banks are important and serious institutions. They depend on trust. They borrow money from the public and use it. They also perform the function of intermediation of funds. For many centuries they have been institutions that contributed to economic development. There are a number of generally accepted, long-standing principles that apply to these institutions. The most important are: -  Providing effective supervision over these institutions. -  Maintaining an environment in which they can function efficiently. -  Making risk-taking measures adaptable and applicable. -  Helping to improve the culture of credit. Most of these responsibilities are assigned to public authorities, although some of them are the responsibility of the banks. During the last two decades, however, financial developments taking place all over the world have brought many changes in the practice of banking. Innovations in information technology, the liberalization process of financial markets and a rapid increase in the sheer number of financial transactions have also affected banking. Competition in banking and other sectors has increased.

3  BIS Review 20/2000  Wage formation Risks A further factor of uncertainty for assessment of inflationary pressure in the ongoing evaluation of monetary policy is wage formation. Here it concerns the risk that the wage formation processes have not yet been tested in such a strong cyclical upswing as we now seem to be in. The mode of functioning of the labour market is also important for how quickly the Swedish economy can make use of the opportunities created by technical innovations. The nominal wage increases must in the long term be kept within the scope permitted by productivity growth and the 2% inflation target. Higher wage cost increases will initially either lead to reduced profit shares for businesses or higher inflation. However, sooner or later, excessively high wage costs will lead to lower growth either because the Riksbank is obliged to counteract an increased inflationary pressure with higher interest rates or to a reduction in the willingness to invest in Sweden confronted with the prospect of reduced profit margins. This year and next year pay negotiations are to take place for 2.3 million employees and the mode of functioning of the labour market will then be seriously put to the test. The Swedish labour market has previously had a tendency to generate wage-wage spirals. It has, for instance, been difficult to change relative wages without this generating compensatory wage increases.
I am glad that we were able to have the service of Prof. Peter Sinclair of university of Birmingham who h as served as Director, Centre for Banking Studies, of the Bank of England to conduct this programme. Ladies and gentlemen, let me highlight some interesting developments in the evolution of central banking and some challenges faced by central bankers. The role of central banks has evolved over past several decades. You may recall that the original task of central banks was not the conducting of monetary policy or supporting the banking system but financing government spending. The oldest central bank of the world, the Bank of Sweden was established in 1668 largely as means to finance military spending . The Bank of England was said to have been created in 1694 to fund a war with France. Even as recently as late 1940’s a labour chancellor of the exchequer, Stafford Cripps was said to have described the Bank of England as “ his bank”. Today, it is a taboo for most central banks to finance government deficits. Most countries have managed their affairs without a central bank for a long time. At the beginning of this century there were only 18 central banks. The USA managed without a central bank until 1913. Private banks issued their own currency notes and coins and banking crises were fairly frequent. The Federal Reserve Bank of USA was established mainly to supervise banks and act as lender of last resort.

We asked: “How can the New York Fed best leverage our resources to help our community?” We heard that it could be challenging to find key recovery information and advice online. So we pulled key resources under one roof – or I should say under one URL. We developed our Sandy Information Center with the best information we could find for residents and businesses impacted by Sandy – including key deadlines along with expert legal, finance and insurance guidance. Conditions are not entirely back to normal, and restoration and repair activities continue in a number of hard-hit neighborhoods. Connecticut, along with New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Rhode Island, have been appropriated federal funding for relief efforts and this should help move the area’s recovery forward. I am confident that these areas will recover over the course of the year. The legislation also contains funding for helping coastal communities to prepare to weather future storms better. My meeting with you today is part of our continuing efforts to understand what is going on at the grassroots level of our economy. Let me offer a few examples from this trip. Yesterday evening I met with some of Stamford’s business leaders to discuss the local state of economic and business conditions. This morning I met with Mayor Finch and key economic development staff to discuss Bridgeport’s redevelopment initiatives. Local efforts such as these and your business council are essential complements to the Fed’s support for economic recovery.
David Carse: Recreating the financial services industry for the new economy: a regulator’s perspective  Keynote speech by David Carse, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Asian Banker Summit 2000 in Hong Kong on 24 October 2000. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, I am pleased to be here as a keynote speaker for this major conference organised by Asian Banker Journal. One of the themes of the conference is how the banking industry is trying to get to grips with the challenges posed by the New Economy. I will be giving the regulator’s perspective on these important issues. As a banking regulator, I suppose that I am something of an Old Economy dinosaur. And it is a bit daunting to be sharing the platform with two other speakers who are obviously more expert in the New Economy than I am. One of these is Mr Jeffrey Koo Jr whom I saw described in a recent magazine article as a “30-something Net-head”. I’m not sure exactly what that means, but I think that it was intended to be complimentary. Unfortunately, some of the gloss has been taken off the New Economy in recent months. The dot.com fever in the stock market seems to be well and truly over, and has joined the long list of speculative crazes that have faded into history.

Recent Developments: Status of Consultations and the October Press Release In that vein, I’d like to discuss the status of our discussions and especially the proposals for managing credit risk. By now you’ve no doubt read that the Basel Committee agreed two weeks ago on a breakthrough plan to address the final issues raised in public consultations and to complete the new rules. This was a difficult task, as the Committee received over 200 comment letters from the industry and the broader public on the Third Consultative Paper, or “CP3”. While we might have been somewhat surprised by the number of responses that we received, we were not surprised by the hard work that was evident in the letters. In addition, we will have further valuable information from national consultative processes such as that under way in the United States. The comment letters were positive and offered constructive suggestions on a wide range of issues. Indeed, even among the most critical of respondents, one finds support for the introduction of the “three pillars” of the New Accord and its aim to align capital more closely to risk; for the development of greater consistency in the supervisory review of capital adequacy; and for strengthening the effectiveness of market discipline through enhanced transparency. It was, moreover, satisfying for us that most commentators acknowledged substantial improvements in the proposals since the release of the second consultative paper in early 2001.
My remarks today will focus on three areas – firstly, the outlook for the Malaysian economy as developments continue to unfold in the domestic and international economic environment. Secondly, I will discuss some of the key lessons that may be drawn from the recent credit turmoil and their implications for the Malaysian banking system. And finally, I will take the opportunity to share with you some thoughts on our vision for the financial sector beyond our current financial sector masterplan and the thrust of our strategies going forward. The Malaysian economy enters this more challenging period following several consecutive years of solid growth that averaged 6%. The economy grew by 6.3% in 2007, the fastest pace in three years with the growth momentum being sustained in the first half of 2008. In the first quarter of this year, the economy expanded by 7.1%. This stronger growth was achieved despite the more difficult environment with slower global growth and increased uncertainties in the international financial markets. The successful transformation of the Malaysian economy in this recent decade has been one of the important contributing factors. It has led to more diversified sources of growth resulting in a more balanced economy. While the external sector remains important, domestic demand now has a more significant role in driving the growth process. In addition, the services sector has become a more important source of growth. Moreover, the agriculture sector continues to expand as Malaysia benefits from the high commodities prices.

The region however, still remains highly integrated to the global economy and international financial system and therefore will have to manage the risk of moderation in global growth in the event that a more pronounced slowdown occurs in the major developed economies. This risk is compounded by the high and rising energy and commodity prices, which are impacting inflation in most countries today. Stronger demand for grains, the diversion of land used for food crops to biofuel crops, the higher transportation costs and adverse weather conditions are some of the factors driving the rise in food prices. As a consequence, rising cost pressures on inflation in the global economy can be expected to persist. Should global growth however, continue to moderate in the second-half of 2008, this can be expected to slow the pace of increase in energy and food prices, which in turn, will moderate the inflationary pressures that are currently being felt. Several domestic factors have sustained the growth of the Malaysian economy indicating that external demand has thus far resulted in only a modest moderation in our overall growth as the underlying strength of the economy has been able to sustain the resilience of the growth process. This has been underpinned by the strong domestic demand which has become a key driver of growth. The strong growth that has been achieved so far is on account of the robust expansion in private consumption and investment expenditure.
The path towards becoming more open and clear has not always been easy, it has at times caused some debate. Two issues in particular have been the subject of lively discussion over the past year. The first is that we now publish our own forecasts for the interest rate path. The second concerns how representatives of the Riksbank send signals regarding the interest rate in speeches and press releases. 2  BIS Review 106/2007  Interest rate path a natural step towards openness In February 2007 we presented for the first time our own forecast for the development of the repo rate. Prior to this only the central banks in Norway and New Zealand published their own interest rate paths. But this group has now grown, with the addition of the Riksbank and in March this year also the Icelandic central bank. At the beginning of this month we also decided to publish our forecast for the path of the policy rate – and a number of other important variables – in connection with each monetary policy meeting. This means that we will publish our interest rate forecast six times a year, instead of three as before. By publishing our own forecast for the interest rate we have become more open and clear with regard to our view of future monetary policy.

There is little risk that its owners will make substantial withdrawals from the Fund over short periods. Other funds or individual investors may for various reasons have to reduce their holdings or pull out of capital markets at an unfavourable time. This may be because the investments are leveraged or that a fund is subject to regulatory constraints or simply that a long-term strategy is influenced by short-term assessments. In addition to its large size and long future life, the Fund is not earmarked for particular obligations unlike traditional pension funds. As a result, the Fund has a higher risk-bearing  4  BIS Review 45/2008  capacity than other comparable funds. The Pension Fund can thus a larger extent invest in financial instruments that may vary more in value, but provide a higher expected return, which in practice means investing in equities. The allocation to equities will now increase from 40 to 60 per cent. If returns vary across different markets and market segments, spreading investments can improve the trade-off between risk and return. This is why the Fund is expanding its portfolio, not only in terms of its geographic exposure, but also the depth of its investments in individual markets. The Fund’s strategy results in a very broad market exposure. This limits the Fund’s exposure to large losses on individual investments or group of investments that are influenced by the same or closely related risk factors. Losses on individual investments or main groups of investments will offset each other in a well diversified portfolio.
3  Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2003) “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System“, NBER Working Paper 9971; Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2004) “The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Center Countries”, NBER Working Paper 10332; Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2004) “Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery“, NBER Working Paper 10626; Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2004) “The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Equity Swap“, NBER Working Paper 10727; Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2005) “Savings Glut and Interest Rates: the Missing Link to Europe“, NBER Working Paper 11520. 4  Bernanke B. (2005) “The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit”, Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the Homer Jones Lecture, St. Louis, Missouri Updates speech given on March 10, 2005, at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economists, Richmond, Virginia.

10.  recently Ricardo Caballero 13 presented his theory that (financial) asset shortages are at the heart of the global imbalances problem, and his idea was also put forward by Raghuram Rajan 14 speaking recently on (real, fixed) asset shortages. Asset shortages hypothesis  5  Rajan R. (2006) “Perspectives on Global Imbalances”, Remarks by Economic Counsellor and Director of IMF Research Department at the Global Financial Imbalances Conference London, United Kingdom, 23 January 2006; and Rato R. (2006) “Shared Responsibilities: Solving the Problem of Global Imbalances”, Speech of the International Monetary Fund Managing Director at the University of California at Berkeley, 3 February 2006. 6  Greenspan A., Kennedy J. (2005) “Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt on One-to-FourFamily Residences.” Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series Paper 2005-41; Lansing K. (2005) “Spendthrift Nation”, FRBSF Economic Letter, November 2005. 7  Greenspan A. (2005) “Current Account” presentation at Advancing Enterprise 2005 Conference (London, United Kingdom), 4 February 2005; OECD (2004) “Economic outlook”, June 2004; Faruqee H., Laxton D., Muir D., Pesenti P. (2005) “Current Accounts and Global Rebalancing in a Multi-Country Simulation Model”, presented at the NBER conference, “G-7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment”, 1–2 June 2005; Chinn M. (2005) “Getting Serious about Twin Deficits”, working paper, The Bernard and Irene Schwartz Series on the Future of American Competitiveness, CSR No. 10, September 2005.