samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It would likely be difficult to maintain confidence in the inflation target by using such a strategy. Inflation has already undershot the target for several years and would in that case continue to undershoot the target for some years to come. The fact that inflation has been 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  low for a long time is probably a major reason why long term inflation expectations have fallen. Conversely, the trend we have witnessed over the past year of a slowing fall in inflation expectations has coincided with monetary policy becoming very clearly expansionary and underlying inflation beginning to rise. Against this background it would likely be difficult for the Riksbank to maintain confidence in the target solely by communicating that the inflation target is still valid, without in any way reinforcing that claim with policy measures. A higher repo rate would weaken economic development The idea behind the Riksbank needing to have more patience and accepting that inflation will continue to remain below the target for an even longer period seems to be that the policy rate could then be raised to slow the rise in debt and housing prices. But the Swedish repo rate does not exist in a vacuum. Interest rates are also low internationally. Higher interest rates in Sweden in relation to those abroad would strengthen the krona and lead to a weaker real economic development. This would dampen inflation.

What I perceive to be the most common argument for lowering the target is that trends such as globalisation and digitisation are assumed to have such a highly dampening effect on inflation that it is impossible, or at least extremely difficult, to achieve the 2 per cent target. Do digitisation and globalisation lead to permanently lower inflation? There are several, and I think convincing, reasons why it is a bad idea to lower the inflation target. One is that it is far from obvious why digitisation and globalisation would give rise to permanently lower inflation. The arguments presented are often relatively vague, and say that stiff competition and squeezed margins have changed the economic playing field for companies in various ways. However, because the margins cannot keep falling indefinitely, this kind of price pressure can only lead to a temporary effect on inflation. And regardless of  2  See for example Mitelman (2013), Fölster (2015), Hökmark (2015), Andersson (2015), Schück (2015), Expressen (2015), Sydsvenskan (2015), Cervenka (2015), and Krister Andersson in Dagens Industri (2015). 3  See for example Winsth and Isaksson (2015), Engzell-Larsson (2015), Lars Jonung and Robert Bergqvist in Dagens Nyheter (2015), Mitelman (2015), and Jakobsson (2015). 4  Some even think that the inflation target is in conflict with the Sveriges Riksbank Act and the task delegated to the Riksbank by the Riksdag (Swedish parliament) (Mitelman, 2015b). This is obviously not correct.
Unclear international developments – unclear conditions for monetary policy There is greater geopolitical uncertainty in our immediate area than there has been for a long time. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine could escalate, trigger more far-reaching sanctions, put further downward pressure on demand in parts of Europe and push energy prices up or down. We are monitoring developments closely, taking note of other analysts’ assessments and working with different scenarios, but it is of course difficult to assess the probability of an escalating conflict and to quantify what potential effects it might have. Another uncertainty factor concerns the situation in the euro-area banking sector. The European Central Bank’s review of banks’ assets (Asset Quality Review) and accompanying stress tests, which will be published soon, can strengthen confidence in the banks and thereby hopefully give new vitality to the banking sector, which has so far hampered a muchneeded recovery through restrained credit granting and high interest rates on bank loans. But the problems in the Portuguese, Bulgarian and Austrian banks that have surfaced over the summer imply that some problems remain and there is a risk that the review will either point to extensive problems or be perceived as insufficient. Another extremely important condition for monetary policy in Sweden is the shape that monetary policy abroad will take and what effects it will have on growth, inflation and exchange rates.

With interest rates along the yield curve close to zero, there is also simply less room for monetary manoeuvre than in the past. Before the Covid crisis, I expressed concerns about the growing “dependency culture” around monetary policy.21 Recent events have done nothing to allay those concerns. Price stability is an anchor on which all societies and economies depend for their stability and success. At this time of momentous uncertainty about the health of our societies and economies, it is more important than ever that central banks are not over-burdened and that the anchor of price stability is not disturbed. Thank you. 21  Haldane (2019). 23  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  23  References Aaronson, D, Brave, S, Butters, R, Sacks, D and Seo, B (2020), ‘Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims’, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper, No. 2020-10. Barro, R, Ursúa, J and Weng, J (2020), ‘The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity’, NBER Working Paper, No. 26866. Carvalho, V, Garcia, J, Hansen, S, Ortiz, Á, Rodrigo, T, Rodriguez Mora, J and Ruiz, J (2020), ‘Tracking the Covid19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data’, Cambridge-INET Institute Working Paper, No: 2020/16. Chetty, R, Friedman, J, Hendren, N, Stepner, M and Opportunity Insights Team (2020), ‘How Did Covid-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment?
As regards the MPR, the baseline scenario uses as a working assumption that it will follow a trajectory comparable to the one assumed in the various expectations indicators. This ensures that monetary policy will remain expansionary throughout the projection horizon. As always, the implementation of monetary policy and any possible adjustments to the policy rate will be conditional on incoming information and its effects on the projected inflation dynamic (figure 13). On the external front, although the market anticipates an increase in the fiscal impulse in the United States, with planned infrastructure works, tax cuts and measures generally intended to boost growth, their details are still unknown, as is the time it will take to carry them out. In that sense, there is the possibility of a significant fiscal package that results in higher economic growth in the US and the rest of the world. However, another possibility is that the impulse disappoints and financial markets deteriorate, ending up in dominating negative effects. The US inflation outlook also poses risks, as it could precipitate a more aggressive behavior of the Fed. For now, after the meeting of last week, the Fed announced a slightly faster withdrawal of the monetary stimulus. The effects of potential protectionist measures on world activity and trade has to be considered as well. All this, with Brexit’s effects still in the dark and with several major European economies preparing election processes. Plus doubts surrounding the soundness of some European banks.

We also continue to monitor and improve our system of banking supervision, in recognition of the fact that one reason we did ride out the Asian financial crisis was undoubtedly that banks were strong. Some observers have suggested throwing some sand in the wheels of international finance. By limiting capital flows, the argument goes, it becomes easier for central banks to maintain monetary and financial stability in turbulent times and to cope with the potency of international finance that comes with globalisation. Indeed, control in one form or another has become quite popular in this region. But, for an international financial centre such as Hong Kong, whose main source of income stems from an ever-growing economic and financial integration with the rest of the world economy, such a policy is, to us, clearly undesirable. Moreover, the Basic Law of Hong Kong also bars any foreign exchange control policies and any restrictions on the free flow of capital within, into and out of Hong Kong. Others suggest that the Hong Kong economy would be better able to withstand economic shocks and disturbances if the currency board was adjusted or gave way to something else: different observers have different pet ideas and there seems to be no agreement on what that alternative would be. I have spoken a great many times on this topic and I do not propose to do so again today.
All these initiatives are key to ensuring our capacity to finance the two “Great transformations”, ecological and digital, that we will all have to pursue in the long run. Both require very significant investments in the coming years and hence a co-financing by the public and the private sectors: it is healthy to encourage convergence of private actors with policy goals set by public authorities on these collective issues. Allow me here to turn to some great economists of the last century to shed some light on these transformations. One of them is Joseph Schumpeter and his creative destruction, and the decisive role of private innovation. But we shouldn’t forget Karl Polanyi and his “Great transformation”, written in Britain and published in 1944. Polanyi warned of the dangers of changing a “Market Economy” into a “Market society”, and hence of purely self-regulated markets forgetting about social and political institutions. We might say that his ideas are the structural side of what Keynes wrote on cyclical policies. To succeed in the face of the challenges of both the modern economy and democratic discontent, we will need to reconcile the ideas of these three great thinkers. Page 6 sur 9 II. 20 years ahead: our two great transformations, ecological and digital 1/ I will start with the digital revolution, where Europe is still lagging behind the United States and China. Compared to the United States, we spend less on R&D, have fewer researchers and have filed fewer patents, particularly in biotechnology and in information and communication technologies.

Activities are increasingly active in the stock market and real estate market. We see more and more construction of condominium and residential houses in Bangkok, peripheral and major provinces around the country where prices of some of these projects have gone up rather fast. We also see household debt trending upward to over 70 percent of GDP. We will continue to be watchful and make sure that the situation does not get out of hand to threaten financial and economic stability. Ladies and Gentlemen, This leads us to the second part of my talk this evening. Given recent economic and financial development I have mentioned, it is clear that, as monetary policy maker, the Bank of Thailand is faced with a challenge to strike the right balance between economic growth and macro-economic stability. It is not easy to determine appropriate policy, thus policy decision has always been made with careful considerations, taking into account all economic and stability aspects. Last year, our main concern was about ensuring growth recovery from floods. Policy interest rate was cut twice with a view to providing an accommodative and conducive environment to growth. This helped accelerate recovery in the aftermath of the flood and support domestic demand in the face of global economic slowdown. At the same time, the Bank of Thailand had to make sure that core inflation remains within target and concurrently, ensure macroeconomic and financial stability. There has been continuous effort to enhance stability surveillance over the years.
This does not necessarily mean that Swedish bankers are more honest than American ones, just that the advantages of exploiting conflicts of interest are less and the costs are greater. My second conclusion is that it is important that all significant conflicts of interest should be discussed openly and publicly. There are justifiable claims for reliable information on borrowers and issuers, but the same applies to information on the measures taken by the banks to avoid exploiting conflicts of interest. I believe that there are relevant market solutions in most cases, as long as the conflicts of interest are clear. Thirdly, I would like to encourage the Swedish banks to carefully follow international developments within the field of compliance - i.e. the routines to ensure that internal and external rules are adhered to. In many cases the requirements have become much more stringent in recent years, and it is important to thoroughly assess developments in other countries. For instance, the Chinese wall has been repaired in the United States, and is now higher than ever. This has been achieved through legislation. It remains to be seen whether the Swedish banks can solve these problems themselves. Fourthly, I believe that the supervisory authorities play an important role with regard to identifying and overseeing potential conflicts of interest. Our Finansinspektion has begun to do this to a greater extent, not only with regard to banks but for the financial sector as a whole.

Employees shall usually work in the best interests of the company, but can in some contexts have interests of their own that are in conflict with the company’s best. Divisional managers within a corporate group may have an interest in promoting their own division rather than the group as a whole. Company management does not always have the same aims as the shareholders. Many of these conflicts of interest are common and quite natural elements of real life, and rarely cause problems. It is important to bear this in mind when discussing methods of dealing with them. This does not mean that conflicts of interest in financial operations are irrelevant, quite the reverse. The relevant question here, however, is which conflicts of interest are real problems and which are not. The conflicts without problems are those where there is little incentive to improperly favour one interest over another. For instance, most employees are usually loyal to their employer - otherwise they risk losing their jobs. A company that does not take into account the interests of its employees and its customers risks gaining a bad reputation and losing its competitiveness. Other conflicts of interest are more problematic. When an agent has a considerable incentive to favour one party at the cost of another, there could be scope for some form of regulations. Many companies also have ethical guidelines and rules for dealing with the cases where there is most incentive to take other interests into account.
Employment began to rise during the fourth quarter of last year, and unemployment has begun to fall. The forecast in our Monetary Policy Report is that unemployment will fall fairly slowly, and be just over 7.5 per cent in the year 2013. (Figure: Labour and employment and unemployment). Since the report was published the labour force surveys for June have been published. These show that employment increased slightly more, and that unemployment was lower during the second quarter of this year, than we had forecast. Inflation close to target of 2 per cent In our Monetary Policy Report we expect inflation to remain fairly close to the inflation target of 2 per cent during the forecast period. This is because, despite strong GDP growth, resource utilisation will be low, and this will hold back domestic inflationary pressure. Inflationary impulses from abroad will also be weak. But as economic activity recovers and resource utilisation rises, inflationary pressures will increase. BIS Review 109/2010  5  Our assessment was therefore that underlying inflation – measured in terms of the CPIF, the consumer price index with a fixed interest rate – would fall towards 1 per cent this year, and then rise towards 2 per cent at the end of 2012. CPI inflation, on the other hand, had increased during the spring, and we expected it to continue to increase as a result of rising interest rates, until it peaks at almost 3 per cent in 2013. (Figure: Inflation).

Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: The national strategy for financial education and financial inclusion in North Macedonia Address by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the workshop “The National Strategy for Financial Education and Financial Inclusion in North Macedonia: Coordinated efforts for enhancing financial literacy in North Macedonia”, video conference, 16 September 2021. * * * Dear Deputy Minister of Finance, dear representatives of financial regulators, dear representatives of the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the OECD, representatives of the international fora in the country, colleagues from the private and non-government sector, It is my great pleasure to address you at this virtual event devoted to financial literacy and education. First, let me use this opportunity to express our deepest gratitude to the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the International Network on Financial Education at the OECD for their support and high-level expertise provided within the regional Technical Assistance Project on Financial Education. At this very point, I have no doubt that we all profoundly understand the concept of financially literate and financially included citizens, and its importance for the overall prosperity of our societies. As a central bank, highly aware of the former, we have imprinted financial education and inclusion as a separate strategic goal, and along with other financial regulators, we have streamlined joint vision and efforts in the recently adopted first National Strategy on Financial Education.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Financing of Very Small Enterprises (VSEs) Introductory speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Symposium on the Financing of Very Small Enterprises (VSEs), organised by the Bank of France in conjunction with the Federation of Approved Management Centres, Paris, 15 January 2016. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to the Banque de France for this symposium on the financing of very small enterprises or VSEs. It was conceived and organised in conjunction with the Federation of Approved Management Centres, and I would like to extend my warmest thanks to them, and in particular to their President Yves Marmont. I am very pleased to have developed such a close and lasting relationship with your organisation, which plays a vital role in supporting SMEs and VSEs. This event would also have been impossible without the help of the individuals and organisations who have agreed to take part in our three round tables today, and I would like to thank them sincerely for their contribution. It is a particular pleasure for me to be able to open this symposium today. As you know, just a few months ago, I had the honour of submitting a report to the prime minister on the financing of business investment, the first proposed recommendation of which was to “Improve access to credit for very small businesses, especially cash loans”. This is our focus today.

With more than 2,500 Indian companies, 2,300 Chinese companies, and 2,000 Australian and New Zealand companies in Singapore, corporates have made Singapore their location of choice to tap into this growth. However, Singapore’s value transcends our physical proximity to the fastest growing regions of the world. Indeed, Daiwa’s extensive commitments and new activities in Singapore is the best testament of our successful efforts to create the best possible business environment. It highlights recognition of our stable and trusted environment, supported by reliable infrastructure, highly educated workforce and consistent and transparent government policies. To further enlarge the market, Singapore has forged important linkages to the rest of the world. We have built up a network of Free Trade Agreements with many of our key trading partners such as Japan, the US, India and Korea. Discussions are ongoing with the Gulf region and China for greater market access for Singapore-based entities. A Connectivity Agreement between Singapore and Vietnam will amongst others, deepen collaboration in financial services, and promises greater opportunities for businesses from both countries. Conclusion On this note, I would like to convey my heartiest congratulations to Daiwa Securities Group on your 35th anniversary in Singapore. The future of the region continues to shine bright and I encourage all to leverage on Singapore to tap into the region’s growth. I wish everyone a wonderful evening ahead. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 72/2007
27(2), pages 1–78. Levin, A and Williams, J (2003), “Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models,” Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 291, Society for Computational Economics. BIS central bankers’ speeches  21  Nickell and Saleheen (2015), “The impact of immigration on occupational wages: evidence from Britain”, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 574, December. Phillips, A (1958), “The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in the United Kingdom 1861–1957”. Economica 25 (100): 283–299. Rachel, L and Smith, T (2015), “Secular drivers of the global real interest rate”, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 571, December. Sack (1998), “Uncertainty, leaning and gradual monetary policy”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July. Smets, F and Wouters, R (2007), “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach.” American Economic Review, 97(3): 586–606. Speigner, B (2014), “Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve”, Bank of England Working Paper No. 519, December. Uhlig, H (2005), “What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381–419, March. Vlieghe, G (2016), “Debt, Demographics and the Distribution of Income: new challenges for monetary policy”, Speech at the London School of Economics, January. Weale, M (2014), “Slack and the labour market”, speech at Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce, Windsor, March. 22  BIS central bankers’ speeches

7  Simulations by Dorich, Labelle, Lepetyuk and Mendes (2015) using a model for the Canadian economy indicate that a target of 2 per cent leads to a result that is almost as good as if the target were raised to 3 or 4 per cent, given that the policy rate can be complemented by quantitative easing as well as active and credible supporting communication. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Major direct impact of interest rate changes makes Swedish CPI unique This direct impact of interest rate changes on inflation is quite unique to Sweden. The reason for the effect is that we include household mortgage costs in the CPI in a slightly different way than most other countries with inflation targets. More specifically, we attempt to measure households’ costs for living in an owner-occupied property, where interest expenditure is an important component.8 The CPI is calculated according to roughly the same principles in Canada, for example, but in practice the interest rate changes have a much smaller impact on the CPI there than here in Sweden.9 In Australia and New Zealand, interest rate changes also previously had a major direct impact on the CPI, but the method for calculating CPI changed in both countries at the end of the 1990s in a way that eliminated such effects.10 They now apply a method which is principally based on following price developments of new housing, a so-called net acquisition approach.