samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The crisis in the housing sector, together with falling employment and weaker growth in real wages meant that I found it hard to believe that the US economy would turn upwards as quickly as assumed in the forecast. Moreover, the forecast for global growth assumed that there would not be any substantial slowdown in economic activity in the emerging economies. However, my assessment was that growth would also weaken there. The rises in energy and food prices entail cost increases and reduce purchasing power in these countries too. I also pointed out the rapid slowdown in the growth rate in the euro area. All in all, I considered there were risks that economic activity abroad would weaken more than was forecast in the September Update. In Sweden, there were clear signs of an economic downturn as early as the monetary policy meeting in July. In September we could see that growth in the second quarter had slowed  6  BIS Review 119/2008  down much sooner than expected. The situation in the Swedish labour market remained strong, but even here there were indicators, such as labour shortages, the number of job vacancies and redundancies, pointing to a cooling down. Productivity and inflation Productivity in Sweden has been weak since the beginning of last year. This means that unit labour costs as measured in the National Accounts are increasing more quickly. There is thus a risk that companies will try to pass on their cost increases to consumers, which would result in higher inflation.

During decades of spectacular growth, total factor productivity or TFP rose only modestly. Overtime, Thailand’s inability to further move up the quality ladder, after it graduated from a low-labor-cost production- base status, gradually led to the erosion of our export competitiveness. In relation to the attitude towards risk, Thailand’s use of leverage, being among the highest in Asia, put the country in a vulnerable position to potential adverse shocks. When the crisis hit in 1997, many companies thus found themselves in desperate straits to service their debt, eventually leading up to a major collapse of the real economy. While these weaknesses have been and are being addressed since the crisis, these measures take time to become fully effective. In the meantime, these shortcomings have been accentuated by the recent change in global competitive landscape brought about by China’s WTO accession. Thailand, like many other countries, will need to reposition itself quickly to meet this new global challenge. Stepping beyond the realm of the real sector, another expensive lesson learnt during the crisis is that the world financial markets have become extremely slippery. As today’s financial world becomes increasingly interconnected, disturbances in one market can quickly spread to others with devastating results. These merciless and indiscriminating financial storms therefore need to be guarded against around the clock, with an early warning system developed to help protect all those involved. Looking back over the past ten years, the Thai financial sector has changed considerably.
The aim is to ensure that the inflation generation is replaced by a new generation, a generation for whom economic success will depend more on their own efforts than on the accidental consequences of high and unstable inflation for the distribution of wealth – whether in housing, pensions or financial savings. Conclusions So what should we make of the Monetary Policy Committee after two years? As all parents know, second birthdays are often the prelude to a difficult period: the “terrible twos”. But I am confident that, whatever difficulties lie ahead, the Chancellor will be able to take some pride in his offspring. Philip Ziegler has described the British constitution as an accumulation of “instantly invented precedents”. Indeed, there is a tradition in the UK of making radical reforms in such a way that it is impossible, after a few years, to imagine that things were done any other way. That I predict will be true of the MPC. The whole monetary policy process is today systematic and professional in a way that was unimaginable less than ten years ago. Then, meetings between the Chancellor and Governor to discuss interest rates were often called at only a few hours notice. Now, analysis, meetings of the MPC and the publication of both the decision and the reasons for it proceed on a pre-announced timetable. The change has significantly reduced the uncertainty facing financial markets and enhanced the quality of the decisions themselves.

Much of the increase in debt issuances here was by Asian issuers—mostly from China, Indonesia and India—raising debt capital in Singapore for the first time. Green bonds are also gaining traction, with local and foreign issuers issuing over $ billion of green bonds here. The life insurance industry is doing well, with net premiums growing by 16% p.a. over 2016 and 2017. Growth was boosted by Asian consumers demanding more savings and investment products in search of yield. Non-life insurance business is, however, facing structural challenges and weak growth. Net non-life premiums grew by just 2% p.a. over 2016 and 17. 7 / 11  BIS central bankers' speeches  Business conditions have been challenging globally, due to excess capacity and downward pressure on premiums. But Singapore remains attractive as the premier reinsurance hub in Asia. Global reinsurance players such as Swiss Re and Munich Re have recently set up their regional headquarters here. And we are making a push into alternative risk solutions such as risk pools and insurancelinked securities or ILS. Foreign exchange trading declined last year although we remain the third largest FX centre globally. Singapore’s average daily FX trading volume grew by 20.5% in 2016 but declined by 6.7% in 2017. This was mainly due to lower volatility in key currencies such as the Japanese Yen; and some temporary trading desk turnover which has since been filled.
In his article, "Less is more" for the IMF's magazine, Professor at the University of Chicago and former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India Raghuram Rajan said: "Central banks have constrained their own policy space with asymmetric and unconventional policies, ostensibly intended to deal with the policy rate touching the lower bound. They have triggered a variety of imbalances that are making fighting inflation harder today." More purposeful and less interventionist central banks would probably do better than a high-inflation, high-debt, low-growth world (Rajan, 2023). For central banks, less can mean more. Therefore, our strategy in the Czech Republic is "higher for longer", i.e. to maintain interest rates at higher levels for longer. Regarding government debt, I stated that monetary policy is at its tightest in 20 years and is slowing the economy. A problem arises if the government helps the economy with subsidies, supports and contributions at the same time. This counters our fight against inflation and the economy is not dampened as much as it should be. Therefore, the CNB must consider the following: Should we start competing with the government and dampen the economy by, for example, increasing rates? Should we further push down demand, just to have it subsequently fostered by the government with some kind of supports or subsidies? And so on ... it is a vicious circle. It would be better if both policies were anti-inflationary at the same time.

(cnBlog – official blog of the Czech National Bank). Adam, T. and Michl, A. (2023). Inflace klesá – prbžné vyhodnocení dezinflaního procesu v esku [Inflation is falling – an interim assessment of the disinflation process in the Czech Republic] (cnBlog – official blog of the Czech National Bank). Bianchi, F. and Melosi, L. (2022). Inflation as a Fiscal Limit. (FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. 2022-37). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4205158 Blinder, A. (2022). A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961–2021. Princeton University Press. IBSN: 0691238383. Bullard, J. (2023, 12 May). The Monetary-Fiscal Policy Mix and Central Bank Strategy [conference presentation]. Hoover Institution at Stanford University. 5/7  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Cochrane, J. H. (2023). The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. Princeton University Press. IBSN: 9780691242248. Czech National Bank [CNB]. (2022). Inflation through the lens of demand factors. (CNB Monetary Policy Report – Autumn 2022), 30. Ddek, O. and Michl, A. (2021, 13 October). Krotitelé nákladové inflace [Tamers of costpush inflation]. Mladá fronta DNES. Frait, J. (2023, 17 March). Monetary Macroeconomics and Central Banks in Turbulent Times [lecture transcript]. Czech National Bank. Frait, J. and Matj, M. (2023a). The current monetary conditions in the Czech Republic: tight or easy? (cnBlog – official blog of the Czech National Bank). Frait, J. and Matj, M. (2023b). Are interest rates really unusually low by comparison to inflation? (cnBlog – official blog of the Czech National Bank). Kubíek, J. and Morda, P. (2023).
Krzysztof Rybiński: Innovations in the financial markets – globalization of the infrastructure Panel presentation by Mr Krzysztof Rybiński, Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland, at the conference “Innovations in the financial markets 2007”, Warsaw, 16 October 2007. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, Since I have little time to deliver this presentation, I will skip the introduction and the anecdote and get straight to the point. The global financial markets have recently reported episodes of strong volatility; liquidity was suddenly lost, some markets failed to perform their functions in an adequate manner, others ceased to operate altogether. The liquidity and solvency of some financial institutions were put at risk, whereas some investors suffered loss. Disturbances originated from underestimation of risk by a number of agents on financial markets, ranging from subprime lenders to institutions which purchased structured credit facilities offered by banks and their vehicles. A thorough review must be performed with a view to examining the role of rating agencies and supervisory authorities, which appear to have underestimated the risk generated by the rapidly expanding market of asset-backed instruments and the market of credit derivatives. It is not yet certain whether the worst stage of disruptions is over. In the light of the above, strong asset appreciation, especially visible on the emerging markets, should be assessed with caution.

2/2003, Summer 2003. Tsatsaronis K., Systemic financial risk and macroprudential supervision, article presented at Bocconi University Centennial Conference on risk and stability of financial system: what roles for regulators, management and market discipline, 2003. 6  2  Rybiński K., Globalizacja w trzech odsłonach, Difin, Warszawa 2007. BIS Review 134/2007  market. The currently effective legislation may contribute both to aggravating the supplydemand imbalance which supports the divergence of stock prices from the fundamentally reasonable levels and also towards the growth in the scale and impetus of price adjustments, should a bubble burst. Open pension funds are one of the main sources of demand on the stock market. From their very beginning, they have recorded average monthly inflows of PLN 870 million, the value of equities in their portfolio have exceeded PLN 51.5 billion, whereas their share in free float has amounted to ca. 22%. The assets held by open pension funds are likely to continue their rising path. As estimated, their credit debit balance will stabilize to report a balanced position only in 2031 7 . In addition, the past quarters saw high demand of investment funds for equities. Meanwhile, despite a large number of debuts, the value of equities introduced to the Warsaw Stock Exchange is relatively low. By way of illustration, in 2004, the value of public offers amounted to PLN 13.2 billion (including PLN 7.9 billion of PKO BP's issue); in 2006 it was PLN 4.2 billion, whereas in the first nine months of 2007 it was PLN 6.4 billion.
Ultimately, whether we transform and succeed will depend on our finance professionals taking ownership of their own professional development. IBF will continue to introduce new platforms to help our finance professionals do just this. IBF has recently launched the MySkills Portfolio. This is an online tool which can be a useful resource for individuals to plan and manage their learning. MySkills Portfolio allows individuals to track their training progress and receive programme recommendations based on their training goals. It also functions as a repository of training records. Most of all, IBF is about building a community. Today we celebrate our latest cohort of IBF Fellows and Distinguished Fellows. These individuals have contributed their time and expertise, not just on policy ideas, but also as speakers, trainers and mentors to our young finance professionals. All of you compete vigorously when it comes to business – and that is good. But together we have created something unique here in Singapore’s financial sector: a shared vision for building up our capabilities; working towards the greater good; looking out for one another and bringing people along. And we must bring our people along. This is what will help ensure that our financial sector grows from strength to strength; that we create good job opportunities for Singaporeans; that we build up skills and raise standards across the industry; and that all those who work in the industry enjoy the fruits of growth. Thank you once again for your strong support, and I wish everyone an enjoyable evening.

Finally, low potential growth can have a direct impact on the tools available to monetary policy, as it increases the likelihood that the central bank runs into the lower bound and has to resort recurrently to unconventional policies to meet its mandate. The euro area’s weak long-term performance also provides an opportunity. Since many economies are distant from the frontier of best practice, the gains from structural reforms are easier to achieve and the potential magnitude of those gains is greater. There is a large untapped potential in the euro area for substantially higher output, employment and welfare. And the fact that monetary policy is today at the lower bound, and the recovery still fragile, is not, as some argue, a reason for reforms to be delayed. This is because the short-term costs and benefits of reforms depend critically on how they are implemented. If structural reforms are credible, their positive effects can be felt quickly even in a weak demand environment. The same is true if the type of reforms is carefully chosen. And our accommodative monetary policy means that the benefits of reforms will materialise faster, creating the ideal conditions for them to succeed. It is the combination of these demand and supply policies that will deliver lasting stability and prosperity. ***  In every press conference since I became ECB President, I have ended the introductory statement with a call to accelerate structural reforms in Europe.
I have said that the banking business is undergoing a rapid new technology-caused transformation as we see the emergence of new areas in the banking business. Therefore, undoubtedly, both the regulator and the bank community need to be abreast of all recent trends and best business practices. This is the reason we have decided to launch an establishment that would be akin to a corporate university. This facility will operate on a permanent Bank of Russia-based platform, inviting global and Russian industry leaders to enable opinion exchange on development trends. My hope is that the bank community will assist us in developing the agenda for this platform. Given that I have presented today a fairy large volume of innovations in banking regulation, we decided to cover the other financial sectors separately in tomorrow’s session. Today, let me only guide you through our key priorities. One, advancement of the bond programme. Two, generation of long money sources through retirement savings and life insurance. Three, improvement of corporate governance, which is essential in capital market development. Four, efforts to better quality of financial consumer protection, a field with a lot of room for improvement, as well as improvement of interaction with us as a regulator, including through the Bank of Russia online reception. On a separate subject, let me note the need to counter unfair practices in the financial market, the drive to strengthen managerial responsibility in the industry and tighten business reputation requirements.

Interest rates must be raised before overly large imbalances accumulate. The motive would be to reduce the risk of a recession and low inflation during the period following a fall in asset prices. If the central bank is successful, it is not possible to demonstrate afterwards that one has been right. A further argument is that it is difficult to determine what change in the interest rate is required to achieve the desired objective. However, the advocates of the more ambitious strategy, where monetary policy more explicitly takes asset prices into account, claim that although it is difficult to judge whether a bubble is involved, this is not more difficult than estimating potential growth, for instance. If one extends the target horizon, the inflation target may in itself motivate tightening monetary policy, despite the fact that this would mean that inflation fell below the target level for a period of time. Based on purely theoretical reasoning, the target horizon is the entire future. The problem is that forecasts become more uncertain the further ahead they look. Many central banks with a strict inflation target policy therefore talk as though the forecast and target horizon were the same. It is difficult to take a clear stand in favour of one of the strategies. None of the arguments can be dismissed. As always, this proves that monetary policy is more of an art than a science.
The public sector employs more than one-third of the labour force in Norway. In Northern Norway, public sector employees account for close to 45 per cent of the labour force. The primary industries are important for the counties in Northern Norway, especially the utilisation of the abundant fish resources in the coastal areas. A large part of the fishing industry is export-oriented and is increasingly competing with low-cost countries. These industries will be vulnerable when the rise in domestic costs is high. There are wide regional variations in unemployment. At the end of July, the number of registered unemployed in Northern Norway came to 4.4 per cent of the labour force, which is slightly higher than the national average of 4.1 per cent. Even though the region has somewhat higher unemployment than the national average, the rise in unemployment in Northern Norway has been relatively low in the last year. Unemployment has only risen half as much in Northern Norway as in the rest of the country. The number of unemployed has risen least in the county of Finnmark in the last year. This is probably related to the industry structure which is characterised by a relatively high share of employees in the public service sector. As I have mentioned, a look at the current situation in this part of the country and similar reports from the other regions represent important information in the work on setting interest rates. The short-term nominal interest rate in Norway has now reached a historically very low level.

High oil prices may also have contributed to curbing the growth rate. GDP growth in important European countries has been low or negative for some time. In the Netherlands, GDP has fallen for three consecutive quarters, and Germany has recorded a contraction over the last two quarters. France’s GDP showed growth in the first quarter and a decline in the second quarter of this year. For the euro area as a whole, preliminary figures show that GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter. Some consumer and business confidence indicators have recently shown signs of improvement, and the EU Commission’s estimates point to a slight increase in growth in the next few quarters. There are, however, no clear signs of an imminent and rapid recovery. The key rate in the euro area has been reduced to 2 per cent. Interest rates are expected to remain at 2 per cent to the end of 2003, before rising slightly next year. International business cycles affect the level of economic activity in Norway through a number of channels, including the interest rate differential and the krone exchange rate. Subdued economic growth internationally and high growth in Norway resulted in a wide interest rate differential between Norway and its trading partners. This made it very profitable to invest in the Norwegian krone, and the krone exchange rate appreciated. The appreciation of the krone and high wage growth led to a considerable deterioration in the competitiveness of Norwegian enterprises.
This has weighed heavily on resident population growth as seen from the relatively close correlation with the TFR. There appears to be three distinct phases in the last 30 years: In the 1990s, both the TFR and resident population growth declined in tandem. In the 2000s, the TFR continued to decline but resident population growth recovered. This reflected net positive immigration as the number of new citizens and Permanent Residents grew. In this decade, the TFR appears to have stabilised at around 1.2–1.3 while resident population growth fell sharply reflecting the tightening of immigration flows. 2 / 17  BIS central bankers' speeches  The next two slides are a thought experiment. They are not a forecast or prediction but aim to illustrate the implications of having very low resident population growth. First, let us assume that we have zero net immigration starting from this year. The resident working-age population – this is defined as citizens and permanent residents between the ages of 15–64 – will begin to shrink from around 2020. The exact year is not key. What is important to note is that it is not far off. By 2035, the working-age resident population will possibly decline by a cumulative 3.5%. 3 / 17  BIS central bankers' speeches  Second, let us assume zero net increase in foreign workers from now on. The overall labour force will decline gradually from around 2022, driven fundamentally by the shrinking resident labour force. These two assumptions taken together – zero net migration (i.e.

According to 2009 figures, labor force participation rate in developed economies is above 70 percent. This rate is hovering at around 60 percent in Eastern European countries. Although the labor force participation rate has surged by 3 percentage points in Turkey, it still remains low, at 49 percent. We see that the limited increase in this period was mostly attributable to the rising trend of labor force participation among the female population. Government incentives for social security contributions oriented towards newly recruited women and young people, which have been in place since 2009, are very influential in this development. Nevertheless, at 28 percent, the female labor force participation rate in Turkey is very low compared to European countries. While the labor force participation among females with a university degree converges towards the EU average, with a ratio of 71 percent, only 23 in every 100 women with a high school or lower education participate in the labor market. Regulations to be implemented in the labor market in the forthcoming period will contribute to sustainable growth and an increase in employment on a permanent basis. Within this scope, it is essential that:   Flexibility of the labor market should be increased,    Competition within the private sector is promoted,    Pay-roll taxes are reduced, and    Necessary policies for establishing an educated and qualified labor force, which will accommodate private sector requirements, are followed.