samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Given that the new method provides sufficient flexibility to build up reserves at times when foreign exchange supply increases relative to foreign exchange demand, The CBRT decided that banks would no more hold option at regular auctions starting from January 3, 2011. Moreover, the daily amount of purchase was raised to USD 50 million in order to avoid a possible sharp decline in CBRT”s foreign exchange purchases due to termination of options. The amount purchased through foreign exchange auctions totaled USD 14.9 billion in 2010. Gross foreign exchange reserves excluding gold amounting to USD 80.7 billion at end-2010, increased to USD 86.2 billion as of March 2011. Distinguished Guests 50. The general framework of the monetary and exchange rate policy for 2011 was disclosed to public by the release of the “Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for 2011” on December 21, 2010. Accordingly, the CBRT will continue with the inflation targeting and floating exchange rate regimes in 2011. The inflation target for end-2011 has been set at 5.5 percent and the uncertainty band has been maintained at 2 percentage points in both directions. 51. In line with our primary objective of achieving and maintaining price stability, we will continue to monitor macroeconomic risks and financial stability, and hence, take measures towards enhancing the effectiveness of the monetary policy and liquidity management in 2011.

In the most recent Monetary Policy Report published at the beginning of July we were expecting GDP growth in the United States to slow down to around 1.5 per cent a year in 2008 and 2009. I agreed on the whole with the picture of international developments presented in the Monetary Policy Report, but my assessment was that developments in the United States could be even weaker than we were assuming. There is a risk that we will have to lower the forecasts even more in coming reports, particularly the forecasts for 2009. GDP growth in the  BIS Review 100/2008  1  second quarter of 2008 was actually slightly stronger than we had expected. GDP increased by 0.5 per cent compared with the first quarter. Growth in the United States is now largely being upheld by exports alone, which are increasing at a good rate as a result of world growth and the dollar depreciation (compared with the level 2-3 years ago). Domestic demand will on the whole not show any increase in 2008 and 2009. I do not believe that the recovery in domestic demand will get started before the financial system has stabilised and before the fall in US house prices has come to a halt. House prices have continued to fall during the summer. Growth in Europe will also slow down Europe fared better than the United States at the beginning of the year.
As of now, we expect neither a recession nor a stagflation in Singapore next year. But there are considerable downside risks in the global economy which bear close watching. MULTI-PRONGED APPROACH TO INFLATION  Dealing effectively with inflation requires a multi-pronged approach. monetary policy to directly dampen inflation fiscal support to help vulnerable groups cope with inflation sound labour market adjustments to prevent inflation becoming entrenched  First, monetary policy to directly dampen inflation. Singapore’s monetary policy is centred on managing the exchange rate of the Singapore Dollar. When inflationary pressures build up, MAS allows the trade-weighted exchange rate to appreciate faster. A stronger exchange rate helps to directly reduce imported inflation as well as restrain export demand, providing relief to labour market pressures. MAS has been proactive in tightening monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures, tightening policy four times in the last nine months. In October 2021, MAS slightly increased the rate of appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate policy band as a pre-emptive move when core inflation picked up from 0.7% in Q2 2021 to 1.1% in July-August 2021. MAS was among the earlier central banks in the world to begin normalising monetary policy. In January 2022, MAS added slightly to the rate of appreciation of the policy band in an off-cycle move to lean against gathering inflation momentum. This was before the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. In April 2022, MAS re-centred upwards the exchange rate policy band and further increased its rate of appreciation.

Zdeněk Tůma: Education as investment in human capital Speech by Mr Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, for the graduation ceremony, The New Anglo-American College, Prague, 20 June 2008. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, It is my pleasure to be here today and to share with you some thoughts that concern the role of education as an investment in human capital in the long-term development of our economy and society in general. Today it’s commonplace for politicians to swear by concepts like investment in education, knowledge-based economy or the effect of education on long-term economic growth. They are also quick to add something about the necessity to pay for university education, at least those on the right wing of the political spectrum. Don’t worry, we haven’t met today to assess individual political ideas, and we all know that sometimes it’s a long road from what politicians say to what they do. However, the fact that you are sitting here today indicates that viewing education as an investment has its place in today’s society regardless of political preferences. I would like to use this opportunity to point out that although the concept of investment in education may be somewhat misused and can have unfortunate overtones for somebody, it has a rigorous theoretical foundation and is of high empirical relevance.
As you know, it can pursue two courses of action. The first, aimed at facilitating mergers of viable institutions, focuses on improving their efficiency in the medium term, strengthening the solvency of the post-merger institution and promoting a reduction of capacity. Thus, for example, the merger plans approved within the framework of the FROB envisage cuts of approximately 20% in the number of offices. The aid given is conditional, since the institutions have to comply with a plan previously approved by the Banco de España; it is temporary, because the funds provided in the form of preference shares will have to be returned within five years; and it involves a cost, because these funds bear interest at 7.75%. The second course of action open to the FROB is designed to achieve a swift and efficient resolution of the institutions which have not been able to overcome their difficulties and are no longer viable. If it is necessary for the Banco de España to take control of an institution and to replace its directors, the FROB contributes financial resources and ability to act. To date, this second form of action has only had to be used at CajaSur. Consequently, the FROB has predominantly used the first course of action. Eight mergers have been approved and € billion in government assistance have been requested. The request yet to be made by Banca Cívica will be for an estimated further € billion. Additionally, there are another five mergers under way which have not involved a request for assistance.

This task complements those performed by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission (SFBC), which oversees the individual banks (microprudential oversight). The Financial Stability Report takes account of this division of tasks. The National Bank limits its evaluation of the Swiss banking sector’s stability by focusing on trends observable at the levels of the banking system, the financial markets and the macroeconomic environment. It only focuses on individual banks when this is necessary in order to make an overall assessment. The main purpose of the Financial Stability Report is to allow the National Bank to highlight any stresses or imbalances that could pose an immediate or longer-term threat to system stability. We evaluate the stability of the banking sector in two steps. First we analyse the development of the risk factors in the macroeconomic environment and on the financial markets. Then we evaluate the banking system’s robustness in the face of these risk factors. To do this, we consider profitability, the risks entered into and the capital adequacy of the banking sector. To complete our analysis, we use newly developed models that quantify both the stress to which the banking sector is subjected and its correlation with the macroeconomic environment. The main characteristics and conclusions drawn from these models are published for the first time today. The models will be presented in detail in a series of SNB publications. The analysis presented in the Financial Stability Report indicates that the banking sector is stable.
Later, reserves were expanded to include bank deposits and securities in various currencies. Originally, Norges Bank had an obligation to redeem notes against precious metals, a promise that was printed on each and every banknote. This redemption guarantee applied in principle right up to the abolishment of the gold standard in 1931. In more recent times, reserves have primarily consisted of foreign government bonds, first in US dollars under the Bretton Woods Agreement up to 1971 and later also in various European currencies and Japanese yen. Norges Bank was charged with managing the Government Petroleum Fund when the first capital transfers were made to the Fund in 1996. This was a natural extension of our responsibility for managing foreign exchange reserves. The aim of the Government Pension Fund Global, as it is now called, is to ensure that the income from our oil and gas resources will also accrue to future generations. The principle underlying the fiscal rule is that the real return on the Fund can be used over time for consumption or investment. This ensures a gradual phasing-in of petroleum revenue spending, while preserving the wealth. The Fund is the nation’s family silver. It is no longer held in Norges Bank’s vault, as it was during the period of the silver and gold standards. The Fund is invested in fixed-income securities, equities and real estate across the world.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Collaboration and challenges of the central bank community Dinner address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Bank for International Settlements Closing Dinner, Shanghai, 29 February 2016. *  *  *  It is my honour to be invited to speak tonight at this distinguished gathering of Governors. In my 35 years as a career Central Banker, it has been my privilege to have been associated with the BIS for 20 of those years. The BIS had in the mid-1990s initiated a move to have a greater interface with the emerging world. This translated into an expansion of the membership of the BIS in 1996 and then again in 1999 and 2003, when several Central Banks in emerging Asia became members of the BIS. Today, almost half the membership of the BIS is from the emerging world. This initiative by the BIS under the leadership of the late Sir Andrew Crockett has proven to be highly prescient given the growth of the emerging world in significance and influence in the global economy. The BIS has evolved to become an international organisation that is truly global. The BIS has not only focussed on the important issues on financial stability emanating from financial systems of the developed world but has also surfaced the issues that are important to the emerging world.
Switchers have consistently experienced higher rates of pay growth than stickers, as we would expect. But it is striking how this differential has widened as the labour market has tightened over recent years, with movers securing pay increases of 7-9%, while stickers’ pay growth has until recently flat-lined at 2-2½%. Chart 20: Switchers’ and stayers’ pay growth Per cent Stayers  12  Switchers  10 8 6 4 2  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  2012  2014  2016  0 2018  Sources: ONS and Bank of England calculations. (c) Rungs on the Jobs Ladder The second dynamic at work is that even those climbing the ladder have tended to do so at a less rapid pace than in the past. Or, put differently, the rungs in the jobs ladder have been closer together. This, too, may have reflected workers’ unwillingness to move occupation, industry or geography at a time of increased income insecurity. The Resolution Foundation has recently looked at rates of movement between UK regions.20 They find that rates of geographic mobility – people taking a new job in a different region – has been lower since the crisis than in the preceding period. Their analysis finds that this reduction in mobility is driven by the young and, in particular, young graduates.

Monetary policy responded with a force never previously seen in history. Today, the most likely shocks or downside risks to the economy are very different in their source and impact. They arise from factors such as global trade wars and Brexit. These shocks are different in their duration – more slow-burn than spontaneous conflagration. And they are radically different in their source, as they hit the supply potential of the economy, as much as its demand side. 31  El-Erian (2016). 32  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  32  Consider the effects of Brexit uncertainty on the UK economy. By far the largest effects have been on companies’ investment and productivity. According to our Decision Maker Panel, investment among UK companies is estimated to be between 6-14% lower, and firms’ Total Factor Productivity (TFP) around 2-5% lower.32 These are large negative shocks to the economy’s supply-side potential. They are hits that monetary policy is not itself well-placed to mitigate. There is a risk of people normalising the deviance in monetary policy since the crisis. Around a quarter of adults in the UK working population have never experienced Bank Rate above 1% in their adult lives.33 In these changed circumstances compared with a decade ago, it is important that monetary policy is not a prisoner of its past, that the monetary cavalry are not called at the first whiff of grapeshot, that a dependency culture around monetary policy is not allowed to develop.
That is why since inflation started to rise I have been advocating for social partners in Spain to reach an incomes agreement, which shares out the costs between firms and workers so that the loss of real income is evenly distributed among them, with multiyear commitments regarding wage increases and mark-ups. 5/8  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  This general agreement should draw a distinction between the different sectors and agents affected, and avoid indexation mechanisms. It should also be strengthened by eschewing the widespread use of automatic indexation clauses in public spending. Fiscal policy In the current setting, the role of fiscal policy should be different from that played during the pandemic. The measures should now be very selective and focus on lower-income households, who bear the brunt of the increase in inflation, and the firms most vulnerable to the rise in commodity prices. This would avoid an across-theboard fiscal impulse that would exert further pressure on inflation. It should also avoid any significant skewing of price signals, which could provide an incentive for the economy to adapt to the energy shock. Moreover, any measures should be temporary so as not to further increase the structural budget deficit. In this regard, the European Commission has deemed that a significant share of the measures approved in EU Member States are general (rather than targeted) measures that do not take into account the degree of vulnerability of their recipients. It also considers that some of these measures would discourage energy saving.

To make an effective contribution to the development of payments & settlements and also to increase trade and investment flows nationally and regionally, it is necessary to identify the common themes in the form of public policy goals. In this context, the central banks are called upon to take certain minimum actions to further these goals. 6.2 However, the manner and intensity of the current involvement of central banks in payment systems development differ from one country to another. The roots of each central bank’s specific pattern of involvement lie in the different institutional structures and traditions of each country. The central banks may accordingly decide on appropriate action, beyond the minimum, which depends on the national and institutional background. 7. Importance of regional efforts  7.1 By and large, central banks in the SAARC region and elsewhere are currently involved with payment systems in three main ways, namely, in an operational capacity, as payments system overseers, or as catalysts or facilitators of market and regulatory evolution. 7.2 As all central banks are aware, markets may encounter persistent impediments to payment systems development and may become unable to produce efficient and safe services. The existence of such impediments would give rise to policy issues for central  2  BIS Review 35/2008  banks, especially due to their responsibility in achieving the core objectives, such as price stability and financial system stability.
With its open approach of considering, adapting to, and applying fintech across the breadth of its mission, including through its own investments, the Bank will play its part. 14 15  Bank of England (2017b) The proof of concept connects firms to a specifically built, offline version of RTGS so that the live RTGS system is protected.

Bandid Nijathaworn: Thailand’s economic outlook – an update Speech by Mr Bandid Nijathaworn, Member of the Board of the Bank of Thailand, at the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce dinner talk, Bangkok, 14 July 2010. *  *  *  First, let me thank the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce for the invitation. This year has been a particularly challenging year for Thailand, on account of both developments in the global economy and the political situations at home. So, what I want to do today is to give you an update on Thailand’s economic outlook, particularly to see what these challenges have meant for the Thai economy, as well as for the outlook going forward. A keyword this year is “uncertainty”. As you well know, the market does not like uncertainty because it raises risk and costs. For the global economy, this year has been an exceptionally “complicated” year because of the two major uncertainties that have contributed to an unusual degree of volatility in global financial markets. The first is uncertainty surrounding the strength of global economic recovery which has been weighed down by the high levels of unemployment and slow bank-lending growth in the advanced economies, as well as prospect for higher long-term interest rates in the major economies linked to the financing of public sector deficits. This is the first uncertainty. The second uncertainty is policy.
Since then, Hong Kong has begun to play an active role in the activities of the BIS, including attending its regular meetings and participating in committees focusing on global financial issues, in particular, the Committee on Banking Supervision and the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems. In July 1998, the BIS established in Hong Kong its Asia Pacific office, which is also the Bank’s first overseas office. In addition, Hong Kong continued to attend the annual meetings of the Asian Development Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Bank, as well as maintaining close technical co-operation with these bodies. Since the outbreak of the Asian financial turmoil, the issues of financial stability and new global financial architecture have become increasingly important. In addition to voicing our views on these topical issues under the name of “Hong Kong, China”, Hong Kong has also actively participated in the lending arrangements organised by international financial agencies. In 1998, we cochaired the G22 Working Group on Transparency and Accountability and actively promoted the disclosure standards in both public and private sectors. At present we have been invited to attend the BIS Committee on Global Financial System and its working group meetings. While the above underscore Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre, it also demonstrates to the international financial community the successful implementation of the “one country, two systems” principle. Conclusion 21. Time flies. Nine years have passed since the Basic Law was promulgated.

Within these two broad guidelines, we shall continue to make efforts in the following tasks: (a) implementing credible financial and monetary policies and further strengthening the linked exchange rate system; (b) engaging in market operations and managing Hong Kong’s reserves with a high level of transparency and accountancy; (c) further improving the banking supervision system, ensuring the integrity, and increasing the competitiveness, of the banking sector; (d) promoting the development of the financial infrastructure, including the debt market and payment systems, heightening Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre; (e) actively participating in international co-operation and seek to improve the international financial architecture; and (f) discharging our duties with a high degree of professionalism to gain confidence from both the public and international community. 23. The 21st century is fast approaching, with just some 200 days to go. The financial sector will then also embark on a new era. All that we have done in the past and are working on now, including 5  BIS Review 39 /1999  organising this seminar on the Basic Law, will help prepare us with a firm foundation for taking on the next century’s challenges. I strongly believe that the “one country, two systems” principle will continue to play an important role in the 21st century, and that both the Mainland, one of the world’s largest economies, and Hong Kong, one the world’s freest and most open economies, stand to reap immense benefits from it. Thank you. BIS Review 39/1999  6