samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Forecasts for Annual Growth 2009  2010  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  World  -1,3  -1,4  1,9  2,5  Developed Countries  -3,8  -3,8  0,0  0,6  USA  -2,8  -2,6  0,0  0,8  Eurozone  -4,2  -4,8  -0,4  -0,3  Developing Countries 1,6  1,5  4,0  4,7  IMF  OECD All OECD Members  -4,3  -4,1  -0,1  0,7  USA  -4,0  -2,8  0,0  0,9  Eurozone  -4,1  -4,8  -0,3  0,0  World  -2,1  -2,6  1,9  2,1  USA  -2,7  -2,6  1,8  2,1  Eurozone  -3,4  -4,4  0,3  0,4  Consensus Forecasts *  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March and OECD Economic Outlook, 2009/I, June. *Consensus Forecasts, April and Consensus Forecasts, July. In sum, assessing domestic and external demand developments together, revised forecasts for medium-term inflation are based on a framework where aggregate demand conditions would support disinflation for a long period of time. Distinguished Guests, Despite the realization that recovery in the global economy will be slow, increasing perceptions regarding the worst part of the crisis being over caused a rebound in commodity prices.

Figure 24: Composition Unemployment  of  the  Change  in  Non-Agricultural  (Seasonally adjusted, Quarterly Difference, Thousand People) Participation to Labor Market Change in Employment Net Change in Unemployment  500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 1  2  3 2007  4  1  2  3 2008  4  1 2009  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Recent data include signs of partial recovery in domestic demand conditions and economic activity in line with the policy rate cut cycle, accompanied by the financial measures (Figure 25). However, the negative effects of uncertainties in aggregate demand and low capacity utilization rates on investments and employment are expected to last in the upcoming period as well. Besides, high levels of unemployment are expected to restrict private consumption expenditures. In addition to these, considering the ongoing partial tightness in financial conditions, the Central Bank considers that the uncertainties pertaining to the strength and endurance of the recent partial revival in demand may not yet have come to an end.
Ideally, such reserves should be accumulated from more permanent inflows such as current account surpluses, FDI and remittances by residents working abroad create. Reserves built from short-term portfolio flows and external borrowings may be less resilient. •  Exchange rate. For EMEs, a floating exchange rate is probably optimal. Combined with adequate foreign exchange reserves, a floating exchange rate broadens the policy options when confronted with capital flows. The current volatility in the exchange rates of EMEs is in many cases unwarranted, but a fixed exchange rate under such circumstances would not be sustainable. •  Capital flow management measures (CFMs). My view is that CFMs are like quantitative easing (QE). They are not your standard policy instruments like QE is not conventional monetary policy, but it is good to have both of these policy instruments in your policy toolkit should you have need for them in a difficult situation. While the IMF has hesitantly moved its institutional stance towards supporting CFMs, many others in the AEs have not. For instance, it is often the case that trade agreements with the AEs still insist on significantly limiting the amount of policy space available to EMEs to undertake measures to manage capital flows. This is even after the post-crisis experience of significant spillovers to EMEs from the policies pursued by the AEs. However, within this region, there has been a  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  convergence of views.

There have been some unsavoury practices in this space: “flash loans” being used to manipulate prices in the market; bots being used to front-run retail trades. With decentralised governance, who do you approach to recover lost accounts or reverse accidental transfers of money? Existing regulatory frameworks will need to be adapted if DeFi becomes a reality. Regulations crafted to manage risks in a world of intermediaries are ill-suited where intermediaries are replaced by smart contracts. Enforcement is more challenging when control or governance is dispersed across the blockchain. MAS will follow Web 3.0 and DeFi developments closely, deepen our understanding, and seek to harness the benefits while managing the risks. We will work with both the financial industry and the broader ecosystem to find the right balance. It will be a learning journey. Regulatory Sandbox Plus And what better way to learn than by experimenting? We will facilitate experiments for blockchain and DeFi innovation through regulatory sandboxes. Five years ago, MAS launched the FinTech Regulatory Sandbox, to support live experimentation of technology innovations. Two years ago, we enhanced it with Sandbox Express, so that businesses can begin market testing of low risk activities in a pre-defined environment faster. MAS will enhance its regulatory sandbox with Sandbox Plus.We will broaden participation to early adopters of technology, in addition to first movers. We will provide financial grants to first movers of innovation, to support their technology, human capital, and market development.
Nevertheless, the transmission of global monetary conditions to emerging economies is unavoidable given the open nature of the economies and the increasingly open and interconnected financial markets. To fully appreciate the changes in the global landscape since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges and risks they entail, let me suggest five important developments that emerging market economies have been facing in conducting domestic monetary policy. First, global financial markets are more interconnected than before. Financial openness in 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  the Emerging Asia, as measured by the sum of assets and liabilities in the international investment position to GDP, has grown from around 800% of GDP to now more than 1000% of GDP. Emerging Asia cannot escape the vagaries of the financial markets around the globe. Second, global capital flows have increased in size and volatility. Cumulative non-resident capital flows to the region have reached USD2.1 trillion in 2016, compared to only USD400 billion in the period prior to the Global Financial Crisis. More importantly, capital flows have also become more fickle than before. Debt flows now contribute to 66% of capital flows. These flows are short-term in nature and carry higher propensity of reversals. Emerging markets had never experienced such phenomena before. Third, the volume of global foreign exchange trading has grown by more than four times in the last 15 years alone. The global foreign exchange market has become bigger, more complex and increasingly disconnected with economic realities. Today, exchange rate overshooting is the norm rather than the exception.

The restrictions on mobility have affected small businesses more than large firms – which typically have recourse to digital platforms and are able to implement remote working. The pandemic has also sensitised us to how vulnerable we all are to the forces of Nature. If we do not act decisively to limit the increase in global temperatures, we are putting at risk the future of our children and grandchildren. It is perhaps this realisation that has helped to make 2020 a record year for climate pledges – despite being in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and economic crisis. The number of commitments by governments and businesses to reach net zero emissions has almost doubled in less than a year. The crisis has also demonstrated the power of technology to help find solutions to difficult problems. From making vaccines to contact tracing, from online learning to telemedicine, technology has been at the forefront in the fight against Covid-19 and its effects. Likewise, technology can play a potent role in shaping the post-Covid world. FinTech in particular has great potential to be a force for good. 1 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  We can bring together the power of finance and technology, to help create a more inclusive society and a more sustainable planet. FINTECH FOR AN INCLUSIVE SOCIETY – INDIVIDUALS Let me begin with what FinTech can do for an inclusive society, using Singapore as an example. This is the vision: every citizen and every enterprise digitally enabled and financially included.
The second half of the 18th century saw a sequence of closely-clustered innovations in England: Hargreaves’ spinning jenny was invented in 1764, Arkwright’s water frame in 1769, Watt’s steam engine in 1775. These arrived as manna from heaven, shifting outwards society’s production possibility frontier just as Neo-Classical growth theory would predict. It took time for these fledgling GPTs to broaden their application and influence, measured in decades. 20 Growth and productivity only began picking up well into the 19th century. As they did, this generated a wave of physical investment – in factories, machines, locomotives. This combination of rapid investment, and technological transformation, lit the fuse on a Golden era of sustained rises in living standards, the first in human history. This Neo-Classical account of growth dynamics is lent support by Table 2 which shows estimates of growth in technological efficiency either side of the Industrial Revolution. 21 Prior to it, technological gains were fractions of a percent each year. Outward shifts in the production possibility frontier, like rises in living standards, would have been imperceptible. After 1750, a technological light switch was flicked. Growth in technological efficiency has averaged around 1% per year in the period since. Technological advance, in turn, fed physical capital accumulation. Chart 5 shows the path of the physical capital stock per head in the UK after 1850. It has risen, on average, by 1.75% per year.

These exclusions include companies responsible for large-scale environmental damages, and companies whose business models relies heavily on thermal coal. . Specific central bank challenges in policy portfolio management Aside from the GPFG, Norges Bank, as other central banks, also manages policy portfolios. The Bank’s foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD 64 billion at end-June 2019, divided into a 80% fixed-income portfolio and a 20% equity portfolio. The equity portion is invested in around 1,500 companies worldwide, with a focus on the larger markets and currencies, and managed according to similar principles governing responsible investment in the GPFG. The investment of the major part of the FX reserves is to a high degree determined by our central banking policy objectives. Consequently, we face specific challenges in any extension of responsible investment practices. First, this relates to respecting our legal policy mandate in the investment of our FX portfolio. Second, our investments must take due account of liquidity needs for monetary and financial stability purposes, as well as international financial commitments to the IMF. Third, we need to be vigilant to safeguarding independence and preventing conflicts of interest. And finally, while we are a transparent central bank, we need to strike a considered balance between transparency and remaining needs of confidentiality, to avoid undermining our 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  primary policy objective. International cooperation To conclude, like in other policy areas, there is a crucial role to play for international cooperation also in the field of climate risk.
All these are challenges currently being shared by many countries and which Chile cannot ignore, nor can it ignore the need to gradually recover the buffers used up in the course of the current crisis. Addressing these challenges calls for measures other than those adopted to contain the crisis. Page 8 of 19  IV. To conclude  Having weathered the worst times of the crisis cannot lead us to overlook or postpone the challenges that recovery imposes on a day-to-day basis. The liquidity that the withdrawal of pension savings will cause should not create an artificial feeling of abundance because, as we know, this is only dealing with savings that will be in high need later on. These are no times for self-indulgence. No panacea has been discovered for the economy’s recovery, nor will it adjust automatically. There is no easy way to meet the challenges ahead, and there is no room for bad decisions. On the contrary, well-planned and coordinated work is imperative to confront these challenges in an economy that will emerge from this episode with long-lasting scars. The CBC has been attentive, active, and willing to cooperate throughout the last 15 months in the face of unprecedented difficulties and will continue to be so for as long as necessary. This Commission has been receptive to our contributions and has supported us in our work when we have requested it.

While the global economy is adjusting toward a new equilibrium, solid macro-prudential long run policies should replace current stimulating efforts. Therefore the challenge for our economies in the long run is to address current problems and the inherited ones based on a new model of growth, based on: (i) higher savings and investments, aiming toward a contained consumption matched by domestic production; (ii) persistent FDI inflows oriented toward tradable sectors; (iii) regional cooperation. BIS Review 164/2009  1  Let me briefly share with you some of my thoughts on the importance of this last remark, namely regional cooperation. Following arguments illustrate the benefits of cooperation, at several levels: •  From a development point of view, increased cooperation and integration on a regional level creates a greater scope for economies of scale. This would increase incentives for local and foreign investors to undertake big investment project that would not be profitable otherwise. A related advantage would be increased specialization of our economies, leading to a higher economic performance. •  On a policy level, coordinated macroeconomic policies, legal and prudential frameworks, would tend to improve the allocation of resources and to prevent beggar-thy-neighbor policies. This race to the bottom type of philosophy would not benefit the region as a whole. •  From a strategic point of view, our region is in competition with several emerging regions on a global scale.
All of these developments give reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the prospect for crisis-ridden countries’ return to a path of sustainable growth, productive investments and creation of new jobs. However, historical experience suggests that the combination of an economic downturn and a financial crisis is usually associated with a prolonged recession and losses of jobs and welfare. Most structural reforms take time to generate positive effects, and some of the countries in distress are still saddled with rigidities in the markets for goods, services and labour. In order to prevent – and indeed reverse – job losses, the downward adjustment of both prices and wages need to be stronger in those areas where unemployment is still high, and where this adjustment has not taken place to a full extent due to structural or institutional factors. If this goes hand in hand with a continued consolidation of public sector budgets, then the cautious optimists will see their views confirmed through a chain of reduced uncertainty, renewed investor and consumer confidence, better access to funding and a return to robust and sustainable growth. 4.2  Reforms at the European level  Let me now turn to the last and arguably most important topic of my intervention today, namely the reforms which have been introduced in order to make the euro area and the EU stronger in the long haul.

New projects such as the Konkola Deep Mine, Lumwana Mine and Nickel Mining in the Southern Province have come on board in addition to other mining initiatives going on in most provinces of the country. Another key development in the sector has been the revival of zinc production, once, one of Zambia’s metal exports in the 1970s. Sable Zinc of Kabwe (owned by Metorex) has commenced processing the mining dumps in Kabwe. Ladies and Gentlemen, although investment in the mining sector requires massive capital by large conglomerates, the majority of our citizens are increasingly involved in the sector  BIS Review 77/2008  1  through the supply of goods and services to support the mines. However, the main challenge to the growth of this sector has been the availability of finance. Most companies struggle to find finances to meet their contract obligations. The need for financing is immense especially as the mining sector is growing year on year and will need to acquire new equipment and spare parts as the mining companies invest heavily in the development of new mines. It is gratifying to know that the USD 50 million facility in favour of the Zambian Mining Services Companies being signed today, is expected to assist major players in the supplies and services sub-sector of the mining industry to execute contracts with mining companies.
In view of the direct and indirect effects of these developments, we revised the end-2015 inflation forecast down by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous reporting period. In food prices, we left the end-2015 inflation forecast unchanged at 9 percent. Our medium-term projections are based on the assumption that tax adjustments and administered prices are consistent with inflation targets and automatic pricing mechanisms. The medium-term fiscal policy stance is based on the Medium Term Program projections covering the 2015–2017 period. Accordingly, we assume that a tight fiscal stance will be implemented and the primary expenditures to the GDP ratio will decrease gradually. 3. Inflation and the monetary policy outlook  Now, I would like to present our inflation and output gap forecasts based on the outlook I have described so far. Our medium-term forecasts are based on a framework that we will adopt a cautious approach to make the improvement in inflation outlook permanent and maintain the tight monetary policy stance by keeping the yield curve flat. Moreover, we assess that the annual loan growth rate will stabilize around the recent reasonable levels, also thanks to the macroprudential measures. Accordingly, we expect inflation to be, with 70 percent probability, between 4.1 percent and 6.9 percent (with a mid-point of 5.5 percent) at end2015 and between 3.2 percent and 6.8 percent (with a mid-point of 5 percent) at end-2016. We project inflation to stabilize around 5 percent in the medium term (Chart 18).

Moreover, Credit Suisse and UBS have taken important organisational steps to improve their resolvability as part of their resolution planning. For instance, they have both set up Swiss  1  Final requirements refer to the requirements that will apply after expiry of all transitional provisions. In particular, they concern the qualitative requirements for going-concern capital. Page 1/3  Berne, 13 December 2018 Fritz Zurbrügg  News conference  subsidiaries that contain their systemically important functions, including, in particular, domestic deposit and lending business. To ensure an orderly resolution in a crisis, progress is still needed in three areas in particular. First, FINMA, as the competent authority, is currently in the process of drawing up resolution funding plans. These aim to ensure that a bank has sufficient liquidity to implement a resolution without recourse to state support. Second, it must be ensured that big banks’ lossabsorbing capacity is adequate, not only at group level, but also on a stand-alone basis at the level of the individual group entities. In this context, the Federal Council has announced that, during the first half of 2019, it will decide on the corresponding requirements for the highest operating unit of the big banks – i.e. the parent entity. Third, Credit Suisse and UBS must further reduce the financial and operational dependencies within the group. Domestically focused banks  I would now like to turn to the domestically focused banks. Here too, there has been little change since the Financial Stability Report was published in June.
These changes, and others, seem likely to have made the financial system both more effective in moving capital to its most productive use and more stable and resilient over time. But they do not, of course, mean the end of systemic risk in financial markets. They could in some circumstances work to magnify rather than mitigate stress. Central banks, supervisors and those running the major private financial institutions need to continue to work to ensure that what Jerry Corrigan calls the “shock absorbers” in the financial system - capital and liquidity and the operational infrastructure - are sufficiently strong and robust to withstand economic and financial conditions more adverse than we have seen in the recent past. Thank you. BIS Review 2/2007  3

Moreover, the study finds that measures such as attracting foreign workers and raising the retirement age from 60 to 65 have only small impact at boosting the economy’s long-term growth and that the key to maintaining high growth rate lies in enhancing productivity growth rather than trying to squeeze out more hours from the aging population. While improvement in educational and skill attainment of the labor force and de-bottlenecking of inefficient sectors such as improvement in the logistic system and water management for irrigation are most obvious policies, financial deepening must not be neglected. It is the efficiency of resource allocation which includes funds and capital that enhances economic productivity, hence, raising the economy’s long-term growth potential. This is the focus of the rest of my talk to which I now turn. Ladies and Gentlemen, As you know, the fundamental function of financial markets and intermediaries is to channel funds from those who have a surplus of savings to those who have a deficit. If financial markets are functioning efficiently, they contribute to an optimal allocation of resources, reduce the cost of capital, and allow for risk-sharing and risk-diversification. Well-developed and efficient financial markets contribute to higher productivity growth because they are better at channeling capital from sectors in decline to those with growth opportunities, in a  BIS Review 118/2008  3  process of Schumpeterian “creative destruction” that ultimately drives economic growth.