samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Over the past four years, the payment-related costs that your publican or bookseller pay (and ultimately pass on to you) have come down by 40% to around 8 pence per transaction. While these are small – and much better than Bitcoin – they remain non-negligible. That’s partly because there is limited scope for them to be competed away by innovators offering lower costs, faster speeds and more convenience, due to rigidities in the existing payments landscape, including restricted access to the UK’s major bank-to-bank payment system, Faster Payments (FPS). To put a number on it, indirect members of FPS face relatively high fees of around 37 pence per transaction. 31  In 2016, the Bank announced arrangements under which non-bank payment service providers (PSPs) could access RTGS, and therefore FPS directly, and we expect the first will join this spring. PSPs that make the most of this development and reach critical mass could see their per transaction costs fall below those of debit and credit card providers. And the competition provided by the PSPs should incentivise existing providers to innovate as well. Moreover, innovative PSPs could deliver a world where you can split a round in the pub electronically and instantaneously, needing nothing more from your friends than a QR code on their phone or their phone number. By so doing, electronic money will become more like its physical relative, allowing genuine, immediate peer-to-peer transactions, without the need for a middleman.

I am not sure if this is a dimension covered in Professor Genberg's paper on Endogenous Dollarisation, but it is of particular relevance to Hong Kong. The third paper, to be presented by Professor Kumhof, deals with issues regarding price dynamics. Professor Kumhof's paper focuses on pricing policies and inflation inertia, at a time when we are experiencing deflation in Hong Kong: I am sure, however, that there are insights that we can derive from the paper and the discussion. Research on price formation is high on the agenda of the HKIMR and the HKMA, and possibly in academic and other organisations active in economic research in Hong Kong. We have had deflation for some five years now and we are still debating the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors behind that deflation. There is also debate on whether measures could and should be taken to limit the damaging effects of deflation, notwithstanding the fact that Hong Kong is a highly externally oriented economy. Views on price dynamics will contribute to these debates. As you know, the HKIMR was established by the HKMA. This reflects the importance we attach to thorough analysis of monetary and financial issues that Hong Kong is facing. Developments in the local, regional and global economies provide many opportunities for Hong Kong, but also serve as potential sources of risks. It is therefore critical that we actively seek to understand these developments.
The Americans present things in a different way, but they too consider that price stability is a necessary condition for sustainable economic growth and job creation. Most Finance Ministers of the euro area countries and the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquín Almunia want regular discussions with the ECB. Does that bother you? The Treaty already arranges for precisely that. I myself invite Jean-Claude Juncker and Joaquín Almunia twice a month to attend the meetings of the Governing Council at the ECB, and I am invited to attend the meetings of the Eurogroup. As I have always said, we have to apply the whole Treaty and nothing but the Treaty. Is there really no political pressure? Everyone in Europe and the rest of the world knows that the ECB is independent, even on the major financial markets of New York, Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong. There is no doubt about that. The ECB's credibility, which stands at a very high level, relies on its independence. It is that independence which allows us to solidly anchor inflation expectations. Our credibility is reinforced by the strong team spirit within the Eurosystem – including our excellent relationship with the Bundesbank and its President Axel Weber – and within the ECB's Executive Board, which features of course my colleague Jürgen Stark. But in the view of many consumers, the introduction of the euro actually pushed up inflation. At the level of the euro area, we have had inflation under control since the introduction of the euro.

I now live in Frankfurt and feel good. How many days a week do you spend there? It's difficult to say. To express it like a central banker: perhaps 3.25 out of 6.5 working days! The rest of the time I spend working elsewhere, in Europe and further afield. 2  BIS Review 18/2007  In 2011 the ECB will leave Frankfurt's city centre for a former industrial area on the edge of the city. Do you regret the fact that you will have to leave the city centre? On the contrary, I believe that the design of the renowned Viennese architects COOP HIMMELB(L)AU, with its two intertwined towers and incorporating the listed Grossmarkthalle building, will greatly enrich the city's skyline while creating a European icon. BIS Review 18/2007  3
The main changes in the State and Social Security Budget for 2016 are, on the revenue side, the application of the second phase of the tax reform designed in 2014 and, on the expenditure side, still in the context of observing the spending ceiling, certain expansionary measures such as the approval of a wage increase of 1% for public employees, payment of the second part of the salary payment eliminated in 2012, and the general increase in the average staff replacement rate to 50%. The 2016 Budget Plan presents an estimate of the impact of these measures on regional and local governments, which are the levels of government that manage the most labour-intensive public services. Noteworthy in the area of Social Security is the revaluation of pensions by 0.25%, in accordance with the application of the new revaluation index. In light of the macroeconomic developments envisaged and the above-mentioned measures, the 2016 Budget Plan anticipates growth of around 4.5% in overall general government revenue, which is slightly higher than projected nominal GDP. This would take the public revenue/GDP ratio to 38% in 2016, compared with 37.8% estimated for 2015. On the expenditure side, the State spending ceiling, the improvement in the economic situation and the application of the above-mentioned measures to overall general government would – according to the estimations of the 2016 Budget Plan – give rise to a decrease of 1.4 pp in the public expenditure/GDP ratio.

BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The starting point for the 2016 fiscal consolidation strategy is, firstly, the assumption that the government deficit target for 2015 will be met, which requires a reduction of 1.6 pp of GDP with respect to the deficit observed in 2014. The available information on the budget outturn to date in National Accounts terms shows that, on data to May, the consolidated aggregate of central government, regional government and Social Security recorded a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, close to 0.2 pp of GDP lower than the figure recorded in the same period of the previous year. In relation to this information, it should be noted that the Social Security surplus decreased by 0.2 pp of GDP, compared with the required improvement of 0.5 pp, and the regional government deficit narrowed by 0.1 pp of GDP, compared with the reduction of 1 pp envisaged for the whole year. In consequence, in order to meet the general government deficit target for the year, the increase in revenue and/or the containment of spending in the remainder of the year will need to be greater than that observed in the early months of the year.
I am still waiting for someone to offer a plausible analysis of how the change of the exchange rate regime will boost economic growth. Except naive statements in the media, so far no one has offered such an analysis. In the economic literature, it has long been concluded that the exchange rate regime does not affect economic growth. Do you think that Macedonia has an efficient economic model and exchange rate regime if it records economic growth rates which do not exceed 3–4 percent, and everybody agrees that it is necessary to have growth of over 8 percent? It is very naive to link economic growth only with the exchange rate regime. Economic growth is a very complex phenomenon that depends on about a hundred of factors. Competitiveness of an economy does not depend only on the exchange rate. Take the global competitiveness index of the World Economic Forum. It takes into account more than one hundred indicators for measuring the competitiveness of countries. If someone believes that Macedonia will realize an 8 percent growth rate only if the exchange rate regime is changed, I am left speechless. The change in the exchange rate is used as an instrument for improving the competitiveness only when the country has failed to improve other factors and there is no other choice.

At the moment we are sure that risks to price stability undermining are eliminated, we will apply monetary measures appropriate for the slower economic growth. Маy pressures be coming from the fiscal policy? So far, they have not, and I hope it will remain that way. The best confirmation of that are the balances in the economy. After all, exactly because of that, we had room for the so far most relaxed monetary policy without jeopardizing the stability of prices, Denar exchange rate and the banking system. Banks’ non-performing loans will decrease This year, liquidity was the biggest problem of the companies. The figures showed that the indebtedness in the real sector is huge, over Euro 5 billion, with the country’s debt to the companies being over Euro 220 million. In such circumstances, banks have reduced lending to firms to a minimum and they struggle with the growth of bad loans. Can we expect the situation to improve? In the statistics that are known to me I have not found such figures. However, when economic growth and exports slow down and budgetary payments are late, usually the liquidity of companies deteriorates. Therefore they are late in the settlement of obligations to the banks. Despite that, non-performing loans of the Macedonian banks amount to about 10 percent, which is the lowest share in the region from Slovenia to Greece. Announced debt repayments from the budget will contribute to the reduction of the debts among companies, and finally debts toward the banks.
But before I get into the details, let me say that I believe the LTCM episode and the supervisory response to it is fundamentally about two things: leverage and good judgment. Leverage is a fact of life in our financial world, and is a key part of the risk-taking necessary for the creation of wealth. But sometimes banks go too far in extending credit to their customers and counterparties. That’ s where good judgment comes in. I know - - I’ ve been there. I was a commercial banker for 22 years before becoming President of the New York Fed, and I can tell you that the most important decisions a banker makes are how to lend and to whom. Those decisions are not easy, and often involve many shades of gray. One of our aims as supervisors should be to see that banks are using the right tools to make those judgments. The importance of these issues extends beyond banks and their supervisors. Sound credit policies and procedures are essential not only for the stability of individual banks, but also – and more importantly – for the health of the financial system and the economy as a whole. This is because banks play a pivotal role in our economy as providers of credit. If banks make poor credit decisions with respect to a borrower, including a hedge fund like LTCM, the financial system and our economy will suffer.

In the case of LTCM, stress testing could have given banks at least some warning of the types of exposures they could have faced last fall. The critical importance of stress testing is noted very explicitly in our new supervisory guidance. Sound Practice Guidance The sound practices document accompanying the Basle report presents an important set of standards that will guide both banks and their supervisors. It appears that banks generally have tightened the credit risk management standards for their HLI exposures since the collapse of LTCM. However, it is important that supervisors try to ensure that progress continues. Memories tend to be short, and we want to make sure that as markets calm down, as they have in the past months, banks do not return to the old ways of doing business. The adoption and rigorous enforcement of enhanced risk management practices should contribute substantially to limiting excessive risk-taking and leverage at HLIs. This is the case because HLIs cannot trade without access to financing and liquidity from banks and securities  3  BIS Review 27/1999  firms. If each counterparty manages its risks appropriately, the chance of contagion to other institutions and the financial markets more broadly would be reduced substantially. It is this risk of contagion and financial market instability that is the principal concern of central banks and supervisors. Along with other federal banking supervisors, the Federal Reserve has moved quickly to implement the recommendations of the Basle Committee’ s report.
First, we have a government which has the capacity to think long term and implement tough policies to resolve problems and transform the economy. The government is not bogged down by disruptive and unproductive domestic political pit fights. Our basic economic strategy is right; our implementation good. We are moving up the value chain to more technology- and knowledge-intensive manufacturing. We are growing our services sector in areas like tourism, healthcare, education, banking and insurance. We are pumping money and talent into R & D. We have enlarged our economic space through FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) and moved into new areas like the Middle East. Foreign Minister George Yeo has just visited Libya and Yemen, the first Singapore Minister to do so. At the right time, I will go there too to strengthen our relations. Minister Mentor is himself engaging Russia and Kazakhstan to open up business opportunities. And if there are opportunities in North Korea, we will go there too. I dare say that our Ministers are not just good at forging relations but also enterprising like businessmen. Second, we have intelligent, hard-working and adaptable people. They know the world has changed and is constantly changing. They know they must run ahead of the pack in order not to be eaten by  BIS Review 55/2007  1  the proverbial lion. Some Singaporeans grumble and complain about the government and its tough policies but basically, they are nagging the government to listen to them more. Singaporeans are pragmatic and disciplined.

But in typical Singapore fashion, we kept our cool to battle the crises and, at the same time, strategise to meet the larger challenges posed by globalisation. We formed the Economic Review Committee (ERC). The ERC came up with a comprehensive strategy to restructure, upgrade and transform our economy. The government accepted most of the ERC’s recommendations. We have since cut corporate and personal income taxes, reduced business costs, made wages more flexible, restructured the manufacturing sector, invested more in R & D (Research and Development) and revamped our education system. Our economy is now stronger and more broad-based than ever before. In 2006, our GDP was $ billion, 55% bigger than in 1998. Annual growth rate over the past 3 years averaged 8%, double the figure for the period between 1997 and 2002. This year, jobs are chasing after people. Two weeks ago, I attended the Gala Dinner for Merrill Lynch’s inaugural “Pan Asia Rising Stars Conference”. Several foreign bankers and business executives I met – some had not visited Singapore for many years and a few were here for the first time – told me that they were surprised and excited by the “buzz” in Singapore. It is not just the business buzz of the financial industry, the Integrated Resorts, the sizzling property market, and so on. It is also the glitz of our nightlife and our arts, culture and restaurant scene. How have we managed this quick and dramatic rebound?
It may therefore have to borrow from the Treasury in order to contribute to the immediate cost of the resolution (as in Bradford & Bingley), with the FSCS contribution ultimately amounting to the cost of any eventual shortfall in recoveries. The FSCS is therefore an important part of the overall resolution landscape, and I will come back at the end of my remarks to consider how these arrangements might develop. It is important to ensure that a regime like the SRR contains appropriate protections. At the heart of it is the ability given to the Bank to alter the treatment of property rights from the base of normal insolvency law. When the Act was being drafted, the lawyers talked a great deal about avoiding “Henry VIII” powers. I thought that this might have something to do with having the power to chop off heads. But that was not the case; rather, it derives from Henry’s dissolution and seizure of the monasteries, which was an extreme case of intervention in property rights. The Bank of England’s Special Resolution Unit takes on a more temporal role in its treatment of property rights, and one – you will be pleased to hear – that is shaped by secondary legislation to provide safeguards and a Code of Practice. I think we can be quite confident that Henry VIII saw no need for a code of practice. The safeguards in our regime were drawn up in consultation with practitioners.

We at the central bank stand ready to analyse the new  8  BIS Review 111/2006  capital requirements’ effects on financial stability, in particular in situations when there is volatility in the macro economy and banks’ credit losses may increase. There is also the issue of implementing the new international accounting standards, IAS. A highly controversial but also interesting development is that the standards promote a higher degree of market-related valuation of many more categories of assets and liabilities in banks and other institutions. Banks are already used to market valuation for highly tradable assets, but the new standards go further and request banks to value also non tradable assets and even liabilities to assumed market prices. In general, and although I recognize the problem of market-valuation of items for which there is no ongoing market, I support the idea of more transparent and market-oriented valuation. I accept that it may lead to more fluctuations in the banks’ balance sheets and also in their profits and losses. Although the financial strength of a bank in the long run will not be affected by using the new accounting principles there is a risk that the analysts and other readers of the financial reports will not understand the difference between the reported temporary results and the underlying issues. They may then panic because of seemingly bad short-term bank results or become excessively optimistic over temporary good results.
As the banking sector is a very important part of the way monetary policy affects the economy, it is essential to closely follow developments in the credit market. Indirectly it also means that it is important that the Swedish banks attend to their problems in the Baltic both forcefully and quickly. This is to avoid the domestic transmission mechanism being disturbed by the international uncertainty. Here monetary policy and financial stability merge. The Swedish National Debt Office and Finansinspektionen (the Swedish financial supervisory authority) have also taken measures to alleviate the financial crisis. The Government has raised the state deposit guarantee and extended it to cover all types of deposits in accounts, it has introduced a guarantee programme, established a stability fund and decided on means of capital injections to the banks. Large fiscal policy stimulus packages Governments in many countries have presented substantial fiscal policy stimulus packages, which have been supported by the countries’ parliaments. Large packages have been presented in China, Japan and the United States, but there is substantial fiscal policy expansion even in a number of European countries. These include Sweden, where there is greater scope, in the form of strong public finances to begin with, than in most other countries. However, it is difficult to determine exactly what effects the fiscal policy measures will have on individual countries and on the global economy. In addition to the positive effects from the recently decided measures, growth is being stimulated by what is known as the automatic stabilisers.

If the effects of unchanged mortgage rates are excluded, inflation will develop in a more stable manner and be close to the target of 2 per cent for most of the forecast period. It is weak productivity developments and the weak krona that will contribute to holding up inflation despite the economic recession. If the Swedish economy risks deteriorating more than expected, it may be necessary to implement further unconventional measures The future direction for monetary policy will depend, as usual, on how new information on economic developments abroad and in Sweden will affect the prospects for economic activity and inflation in Sweden. If the economic situation deteriorates further it is possible to use monetary policy easing to further stimulate the economy. But there are also reasons for further consideration of what is an appropriate level for the repo rate. If the repo rate were to become too low the transmission mechanism might become less effective. This is because some market rates are lower than the repo rate. When the repo rate approaches zero, these interest rates would no longer be able to follow. A too low repo rate could also create costs in the financial sector as the result of, for instance, a reduction in the banks’ margins. There is thus a risk that the functioning of the financial markets will deteriorate if the repo rate is cut further. In this case monetary policy will not have the intended effect.