samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
All these forces could lead to changes to some of the balances of the current international monetary system. Admittedly, despite its gradual erosion from around 65% in 2016 to 58% in 2022, the weight of the dollar is likely to remain strong in the medium and long term. vii However, many currencies, including not only the euro but also the Canadian and Australian dollars, are already being increasingly used as reserve assets. A collective move towards a more multipolar international financial system therefore seems to be underway. However, a confrontational (non-) system, or disorderly fragmentation, would only lead to instability and inefficiency. viii In order to increase monetary confidence, we also need to preserve certain virtues of the current IMS: stable, based on collective rules, market-oriented, and that offers widely accepted safe assets. Page 4 sur 6 III. The euro as a complementary asset for a more multilateral IMS We Europeans must be proactive and involved in what depends on us: the euro should play a greater international role. It is already the second most widely used currency in the world, but its current weight, around 20% by most measures, ix does not reflect its potential. As an emblem of the qualities of the type of IMS one would wish for, it is the currency of a jurisdiction with strong and stable democratic institutions, independent central banks, the rule of law and deep financial markets. It is supported by a soft power based on compliance with international rules, multilateralism and openness.

Conference "The internationalisation of the euro and the creation of the EU Capital Markets Union" - Paris, 16 June 2023 The euro as a complementary asset in a more multilateral system  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France  Page 1 sur 6 Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to be with you today for this conference on the internationalisation of the euro and the creation of the EU Capital Markets Union. I would like to warmly thank the Robert Triffin International (RTI) association and the European League for Economic Cooperation, and more particularly Bernard Snoy, for their invitation. I will begin by discussing the monetary policy decisions taken yesterday by the Governing Council (I), before getting to the heart of the matter of today's conference. Powerful forces are pushing for greater diversification within the international monetary system (II). The euro must now play its full international role, in order to assert itself as a complementary anchor towards the "creative frontier" that a truly multilateral international monetary system (IMS) would one day represent (III). I. Monetary policy We decided yesterday a 25 basis point increase, in line with the slower pace adopted early May. And our future decisions will be data driven, meeting by meeting. Hence nobody should rush to a premature conclusion about our calendar nor about our terminal rate, and the latest market volatility seems somewhat excessive.
Figure 4 Inflation expectations for 2011 (1)  (annual change, percent)  8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  Developed economies (2)  Latin America  Emerging Asia  Eastern Europe  (1) Average inflation of the year, with the exception of Latin America, which uses inflation at December 2011. (2) Geometric average for the U.S., the Eurozone and Japan. Source: Consensus Forecasts. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Figure 5 MPR in the world (1) (percent) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  06  07  08  09  10  Developed economies (2) Emerging economies (3) Chile  11  9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  Expected MPR (4) (percent)  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  08  09  10  11  U.S.A. Eurozone  12  Japan  (1) Simple average of reference rates for each group of countries. (2) Includes the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the Eurozone. (3) Includes Brazil, Colombia, China, the Czech Rep., Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland, South Africa and South Korea. (4) Gray area indicates trajectory implicit in futures contracts. Dotted line shows market forecast at the statistical cutoff of December's Monetary Policy Report. Sources: Central bank of respective country and Bloomberg.

On the face of it, these summary statistics are consistent with credit dynamics being distinct from GDP dynamics. It is possible to formalise this intuition by using filtering techniques to  11  The countries covered are: Australia, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United States. 12  They argue that medium term cycles in GDP reflect persistent responses of real activity to the high-frequency fluctuations normally associated with the “business cycle” (Comin and Gertler, op. cit.). In this sense, there is a direct analogy with our model, in which strategic complementarities in risk taking can generate persistent credit cycles in response to high-frequency fluctuations in fundamentals. 13  The bank loans series consists of total domestic currency loans of banks and banking institutions to companies and households, while the assets series consists of total domestic currency assets of banks and banking institutions. For a full description of the data and its sources, see Schularick and Taylor (2009), Appendix B.  BIS Review 168/2010  9  extract the cycle in credit. To do so, we apply a band-pass filter to the data. 14 This isolates the cyclical component of a series operating in a frequency range specified by the user. 15 Charts 6–7 show cyclical fluctuations in real loan growth in the UK and US. The specified frequency domain is 8–20 years. Shorter-term, business cycle fluctuations, say between 2–8 years, were typically not found to account for much of the overall cyclical variation in credit.
Norwegian banks and mortgage companies are now also entitled to issue mortgage-backed bonds. The rules for covered bonds entered into force on 1 June 2007. Norwegian covered bonds are very different from US CDOs backed by subprime mortgages. The regulations ensure that Norwegian covered bonds are a more transparent and substantially more secure investment alternative. Norwegian mortgages have a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 75 per cent. In addition, all holders of covered bonds have the same claim over the cover pool. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the turmoil in credit and money markets. Problems in markets far beyond Norway’s borders may have an impact on Norwegian banks even if the banks are not directly involved. As a result of the globalisation of financial markets and new and complex instruments, turbulence spreads quickly. Banks extend long-term loans. They should therefore be cautious about basing borrowing growth on short-term financing. They should ensure access to a solid local deposit base or long-term bond issues for any expansion. BIS Review 115/2007  9  When times are good, it may be difficult to perceive and assess risk. New products that are dependent on favourable economic developments are not viable. New products must be robust to slowdowns and unforeseen events. The housing market in Norway and the financial position of households The recent turbulence originated in the US housing market. It may be interesting to compare with developments in the housing market in Norway and in household saving and investment decisions.

Inflation Indications and Implications I'll start by saying that although we are seeing some signs that inflation is moderating, it remains far too high, and it is my No. 1 concern going into 2023. Rapidly rising prices continue to have an immense impact on families and businesses, especially when it comes to essentials like food, utilities, and housing. High inflation is a new reality for many people. For the three decades preceding the pandemic, the inflation rate averaged almost exactly 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. But that changed dramatically in the spring of 2021, when inflation suddenly soared, ultimately reaching a 40-year high of 7 percent last June. While the inflation rate has since come down to 5-1/2 percent, it's still higher than any pre-pandemic reading since 1982 and far above the FOMC's 2 percent longer-run goal. Persistently high inflation undermines the ability of our economy to perform at its full potential, so it is critical for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back down to our goal . We are firmly committed to doing so. 1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Shifts and Realignment Those who have been following my speeches lately will know that I've been quite devoted to a recurring theme: using the layers of an onion to describe inflation.1 But with the new year, I thought I would switch gears. I didn't have to look too far, because the mechanism of shifting gears is exactly what's going on in the economy.
To preserve this advantage, Norway needs to be a leader. Technological developments pave the way for new possibilities – new means of payment are introduced and existing means of payment become faster and cheaper. While most changes result in a more efficient system, they also pose new challenges. New technology and outsourcing require stricter standards for both the risk management framework and contingency preparedness. Responsibility rests with system owners. As supervisory and oversight authority, Norges Bank has a duty to point out any deficiencies and weaknesses. There are also challenges associated with the pricing of payment services. When given a choice of payment solution, customers are not charged prices that reflect actual costs. Does this make the system more expensive than necessary? Banks operate most of their payment solutions at a loss. Does this have to be? Are banks’ incentives to invest in secure and forward-looking solutions being weakened? Risk and costs are drivers of change The main structure of the payment system has remained fixed for a number of years, but there have been changes, both to the part of the system customers encounter and to interbank settlement. Behind many of the changes is a desire to reduce risk or costs, often both. 2  1  See the Payment Systems Act. 2  The discussion of trade-offs between costs and risk is inspired by Kahn et al.

In today’s markets, there is a large premium on ex ante clarity and certainty, as opposed to ex post negotiation amongst bankers who know and trust each other. The work required is detailed and largely out of the limelight. But getting clarity around things like “close out netting” may make all the difference when the music stops. 11 The official community therefore needs to maintain its encouragement and support for private sector initiatives to standardise and improve documentation. To take just a few examples from what could be a long list, this includes the work of New York’s Global Documentation Steering Group; of various market trade associations; and of London’s Securities Lending and Repo Committee, which helps co-ordinate the work of different parts of the collateral-financing markets. 12  Summary I have travelled from macro to micro. To maintain the two elements of monetary stability – price stability, and financial stability – we need credible and effective institutions. 11  Close-out netting is a process by which, following a default, open transactions between two parties are terminated, each transaction is valued and, together with any outstanding payments, these are reduced to a single net amount owed by one of the parties to the other. Obtaining legal certainty over recognition of netting across different products and, in particular, with different legal entities with a common group is very important.
Thus, increased growth and globalisation have not solved all of the problems, far from it; there are still far too many poor people who are on the outside of the world economy and far too many countries with large environmental problems. However, existing shortcomings and defects do not mean that the present model needs to be changed; on the contrary, it needs to be defended, extended and spread further, and its weaknesses need to be managed. I believe that the positive effects of sustainable long-term growth, combined with the opportunities offered by continued internationalisation of the world economy, indicate that there are good grounds for optimism about the future. BIS Review 60/2004  7

Sunil Mendis: Is it time for a common currency in the SAARC region? Inauguration speech by Mr Sunil Mendis, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the 15th Forex Conference of the Forex Association of India, Colombo, 20 August 2004. *  *  *  It is with great pleasure that I accepted the invitation from the Forex Association of India to inaugurate its 15th Annual Forex Conference here in Colombo. I would like to extend a warm welcome to this distinguished gathering of forex professionals from Sri Lanka as well as from many of our neighboring countries. I am sure that this is an excellent opportunity for all of us to promote goodwill among ourselves. It also gives us an opportunity for sharing our thoughts on the way forward for South Asia’s currency and financial markets, which is the theme of this year’s conference. Forex, as you very well know, is the largest financial market in the world. Unlike many other markets, the international forex market is open 24 hours a day. Its daily turnover is well over $ 1.2 trillion. This turnover is more than the combined turnover of the world’s major stock markets on any given day. Hence, the international forex market is a very liquid, and thus, a desirable market for trading. As with any other market, technology has also contributed immensely towards its expansion. Now trades are executed increasingly through the internet. It has allowed even smaller investors the access to the market.
José De Gregorio: Chile’s latest Monetary Policy Report Presentation by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, of the Monetary Policy Report before the Finance Commission of the Honorable Senate of the Republic, Santiago de Chile, 6 April 2010. *  *  *  Introduction Ms President of the Finance Commission Senator Evelyn Matthei, senators. I am grateful for this Commission’s invitation to the Board of the Central Bank of Chile to present our vision of the recent macroeconomic developments, prospects and implications for monetary policy contained in detail in our Monetary Policy Report of March 2010. In the past few years, the Chilean economy and macroeconomic policies have been subjected to unprecedented tension. First we suffered the consequences of a major inflationary shock caused by great increases in the price of foodstuffs and energy, with large and costly repercussions on the economy. In a country that had left the scourge of inflation behind, the population had to endure the rigors of price increases once again. The structural characteristics of our economy – small, open, and market oriented – with few distortions in its pricing mechanisms, contributed decisively to the international price shock being heavily transmitted to domestic prices. These same characteristics also contributed to the significant reductions in inflation that were observed beginning in late 2008.

(2) Figure above (below) 50 points indicates optimism (pessimism). Sources: Adimark, car association Asociación Nacional Automotriz de Chile, Central Bank of Chile, chamber of commerce Cámara Nacional de Comercio and ICARE/Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez. 8  BIS Review 61/2010  Figure 3  Lending interest rates (*)  Loans to firms and households  (moving four-week average, percent)  20  40  16  35  12  30  8  25  4  20  0  07  08 Commercial 30-89 days  (*) Weighted average rates. 09 10 Consumer over 3 years  (annualized change in the moving quarter of the nominal seasonally-adjusted series, percent)  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0 -10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10  15  Consumer Housing  Commercial  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Superintendence of Banks & Financial Institutions. Figure 4 Nominal exchange rate (indices, Jan/2/2006=100)  Real exchange rate (indices, 1986=100)  140  140  130  130  120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90  80  80  08 MER  09  10  MER-5  OER  120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90  80  80  70  70  88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 1995-2009 average 1990-2009 average  RER  Source: Central Bank of Chile.
This will also contribute to stability in financial markets. The guidelines that were introduced last year stated: “Fiscal policy has the main responsibility for stabilising developments in the Norwegian economy”. If fiscal policy is to continue to contribute to smoothing fluctuations in the economy at the same time that the guidelines for the phasing in of petroleum revenues are to appear credible, the guidelines should be applied in such a way that they place a strict limit on the average use of petroleum revenues over time. This means that if we use more than the expected return in one period, we must use less than the expected return in other periods. The guidelines allow the use of petroleum revenues to be adapted to some extent to the cyclical situation. Fiscal policy will then ease the burden on monetary policy in the sense that the inflation target, and hence nominal stability, can be achieved with fewer changes in monetary policy. However, permitting a discretionary use of fiscal policy also involves temptations. It will probably always be easier to increase spending over government budgets during a downturn than it will be to reduce spending when the cyclical situation again improves. In that case, fiscal policy may prove to be more expansionary over time than implied by the guidelines. This will have to be countered by a tighter monetary policy, and there is also a risk that doubt arises as to whether the guidelines actually apply.

For instance, about 70 companies are located on our petrochemical complex in Jurong Island, where they plug into customised infrastructure facilities, specialised services and the supply of feedstock. We cooperate with the Indonesian islands of Batam and Bintan, each specialising in different parts of the manufacturing value-chain that it is strong in. In the services sector, we expect regional demand for health, education, tourism and financial services to grow rapidly as the middle-income group burgeons. Already, Singapore plays host to 50,000 foreign students in tertiary and commercial institutions, and 150,000 foreign patients per year from across the region. They are attracted to local universities and hospitals, as well as to the international arms of top schools and medical research institutes based in Singapore, like INSEAD, University of Chicago and Johns Hopkins. Fifth, Singapore is improving our corporate governance practices and standards. A globally oriented economy needs a robust framework for corporate governance. Singapore’s standards are high but we must continue to improve them, not only in the form of the rules but also in the spirit of their  4  BIS Review 61/2002  implementation. Our integrity premium is a precious competitive advantage which we guard zealously, and which will not be easy to replicate. The Company Legislation and Regulatory Framework Committee, a private sector-led body, has been reviewing our company law and regulatory framework. The Committee has made recommendations to simplify the process of incorporating a company, facilitate capital raising and reduce compliance costs for companies in Singapore. Let me highlight some key recommendations.
Not only did he point to the importance of maintaining price stability, but he also gave the interest rate responsibility for doing so. When we today refer to a normal or neutral rate of interest, Wicksell is an obvious reference. In 1907, he wrote the following about the relationship between the interest rate and inflation: “… the problem of keeping the value of money steady, the average level of money prices at a constant height, which evidently is to be regarded as the fundamental problem of monetary science, would be solvable (…) by a proper manipulation of general bank rates, lowering them when prices are getting low, and raising them when prices are getting high”.6 Wicksell’s proposal to establish a Scandinavian central bank was never realised. Wicksell himself entered into a union with a Norwegian woman, Anna Bugge. As the story goes, she strongly urged him to complete his academic works, rather than devoting his time to writing for newspapers and popular oratory. She was active in the peace and women’s movement and was Sweden’s first female diplomat. The union between the two did not consist of a formal marriage as Wicksell refused to enter into a contract which at that time would have made him her guardian. It was a contractual form of cohabitation based on mutual trust and respect, perhaps not unlike the cohabitation that Norway and Sweden have enjoyed on the Scandinavian peninsula over the past 100 years. But that is another story.

Factors which could potentially accelerate the return of inflation back to the target include a higher wage growth than assumed in the projection, provided it would not be accompanied by  11  National Bank of Poland “Financial Stability Review Report”, Warsaw, September 2005  12  National Bank of Poland “Financial System Development in Poland 2004”, Warsaw, November 2005  13  H. Koskenkylä, Ed. “Finnish Financial Markets 2002”, Bank of Finland, 2003  14  Monetary Policy Committee statement, 26 April 2006  BIS Review 61/2006  3  sufficiently fast increase of productivity, further oil price hikes or a deterioration of the public finance situation in relation to that envisaged in the Convergence Programme. The Council maintains its belief that the most favourable scenario for Poland would be to implement an economic strategy focused on creating conditions which would ensure the introduction of the euro at the earliest possible date, which would be conducive to a higher long-term economic growth.”, end quote. Public finances prospects This brings me to the developments in public finances. The fiscal outlook over the medium-term future would be broadly positive, if it were not for substantial risks, mainly political, surrounding the deficit path. In 2005, Poland recorded an ESA’95 deficit of 2.5% of GDP.
In China, the constancy in high household saving rates masks two striking, but broadly offsetting, factors: a 10 percentage point fall in household’s income share; and a 10 percentage point rise in household’s saving propensity (Ma and Yi (2010)). Much of the rise in saving propensities appears to be precautionary. Facing “three mountains” in the future – education, pensions and health care – Chinese consumers have taken the high (saving) road. In the US, the fall in the household financial balance correlates strongly with the path of household net worth (McKelvey (2010), Chart 13). This correlation emerged strongly during the 1980s, with the simultaneous rise in net wealth and fall in saving. This correlation has remained strong as net worth has reversed recently due to falling house and equity prices. What lies behind these movements? Lax monetary policy has been suggested by some (Taylor (2007)). Financial liberalisation is a second plausible candidate. This had the effect of loosening constraints on the supply of housing credit and thereby boosting housing demand and prices in the US. It also enabled households to mobilise and withdraw the accrued equity in their property to finance spending. Estimates of housing equity withdrawal for spending rose from under 2% of personal disposable income in 2000 to around 4% at the peak in 2005 (Greenspan and Kennedy (2007), Chart 14). Micro-level data support this story.

In conclusion, I would like to reaffirm the importance of continued training and development of human resources working in this field to insure that they have necessary skills and to keep them acquainted with developments. Thank you for your attention and I welcome you all once again, wishing you a successful gathering. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches