samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Growth in the US, however, is likely to pick up as early as 2003. The US economy is not expected to reach its growth potential before the end of 2004, however. Economic activity in Europe will only see modest growth for the time being. We anticipate that a significant acceleration of growth will not set in before the middle of 2004, with potential growth being reached in the course of 2005. We assume that the dollar/euro rate will remain at about the current level and that the oil price will be around $ per barrel. On the assumption that the three-month Libor rate will remain stable at 0.25% during the next three years, average inflation should amount to 0.6% in 2003, drop to 0.4% in 2004 and climb to 1.2% in 2005. It is thus forecast to remain under 1% until mid-2005. In the course of 2005, however, an acceleration will get under way, with forecast inflation reaching the 2.5% mark in the second quarter of 2006. The new forecast is consistently below that of March 2003. The low inflation at the beginning of 2004 is attributable to a basis effect as a result of the development of oil prices. The lower inflation forecast for the period thereafter is due to the delayed economic upswing. According to the new forecast, inflation in 2006 is no longer in the range that the National Bank equates with price stability. It should be noted that these forecasts assume that monetary policy will remain expansive over the next three years.

The Bank of Zambia and the Government are, therefore, most grateful to our cooperating partners for helping us build capacity in our financial sector. Honourable Minister, it is also our view that the FSDP provides a unique opportunity through its structures, operating on the principle of private-public partnership, to take responsibility for overseeing the development of the financial education strategy for Zambia. One of the key issues that this partnership should help address is achieving consensus on resource requirements for implementing financial education programmes and agreeing suitable funding models that can generate a stream of resources to support sustained provision of financial education over the long-term. Ladies and Gentlemen, It is now my pleasure to call upon the Guest of Honour, to give us his key note address and to officially open this workshop. Honourable Minister Sir. 2  BIS Review 139/2010
Importantly, some PTF firms have been able to make markets at lower marginal cost than other participants, including by closing positions or offsetting risk in correlated instruments in shorter time frames. These competitive pressures have been one factor prompting many banks to warehouse less risk in fast markets, changing their business model to act as agents who sit between end-users and PTFs and the 1  remaining, typically large, bank market-makers. To differing degrees across markets, regulation has also played a role in encouraging such activity. In US equity markets, for example, Regulation National Markets System (2005) required brokers to execute client orders at the best price offered electronically on any venue, leading to fleeting arbitrage opportunities for the fastest moving market participants. In Europe in 2007, MiFID laid the groundwork for more competition, leading to different types of trading venues and more market fragmentation, also contributing to the growth of 2  high-frequency trading. And this regulatory influence will continue, with MiFID II set to introduce a whole host of new rules which bear on fast markets. As Governor Carney has often stressed, central banks care deeply about the operation of financial markets. 3  For the purposes of this speech, I will examine the implications of these developments through two prisms: market efficiency and market resilience. 1  See BIS (2016), ‘Downsized FX markets: Causes and Implications’. The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) was introduced in Europe in November 2007. It increased competition between traditional stock exchanges and alternative trading venues.

Yves Mersch: Risk management in times of non-conventional monetary policy Keynote speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Joint Bank of Portugal and European Central Bank Conference on “Risk Management for Central Banks”, Lisbon, 25 September 2017. * * * Let me start by thanking you for coming to this joint ECB-Banco de Portugal conference, and the Banco de Portugal for hosting us on this occasion. I am delighted to see central bank risk managers, practitioners and academics here in Lisbon to exchange views on risk management for central banks. This topic has gained such importance in recent years as central banks across the globe, including the ECB, have sharply expanded their balance sheets, even though the time for ever more of the same is behind us. Like the many great maritime expeditions that started out from this country, some of our endeavours in recent years have taken us into uncharted territory. Now is a good time to take stock of what we have learnt and map out what may come next. Following stable principles in the Eurosystem’s risk management framework The Eurosystem has a clearly defined objective, enshrined in the Treaty, to preserve price stability in the euro area.1 The Treaty does not speak of eligible counterparties, collateral haircuts or issue share limits for bond purchases.
Net trade on the other hand has performed less strongly; while it did support growth immediately following the referendum and in response to the  7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  accompanying depreciation, that boost has now come to an end, and slowing trade is now dragging on growth. Chart 7: G7 business investment  Chart 8: Business investment compared with previous recoveries Indices: peak in GDP = 100  Percentage changes on a year earlier  20  180  EU Referendum Act  15 160  10 5  140  0 120  -5  2008  100  -10 -15  80  -20 -25 2007  60 2009  2011  2013  G7 (ex. UK)  2015  2017 UK  0  5  10  15  20  25  30  35  40  Quarters since pre-recession peak in GDP  At the same time, business investment has been strikingly weak. Investment growth was already slowing ahead of the Brexit referendum (Chart 7). Following the referendum it has come to a complete stop. In fact the level of business investment has actually fallen slightly over the past three years – that is despite a supportive global environment and accommodative financial conditions that have supported growth in other countries, and in contrast to the 7%-plus annual growth we were forecasting ahead of the referendum.

It limited the extension of bank credit in Singapore dollars to non-residents except for economic activity, and buttressed this with some restrictions on interbank Singapore dollar derivatives, such as currency and interest rate swaps and options, which might have helped financial players to leverage or hedge their positions. This policy made it harder for would be speculators to short the Singapore dollar, and signalled unambiguously our disapproval of such speculation. This framework served us well. That we encountered very few speculative attacks in practice perhaps showed that the policy was effective. The strength and stability of the Singapore dollar instilled confidence and kept inflation low. Price stability provided the foundation for sustained economic growth, which in turn provided the basis for continued strengthening of the Singapore dollar. We benefited immensely from this virtuous cycle. Over the past two decades since 1981, the Singapore dollar has risen steadily by more than 70%, on a trade-weighted basis. Domestic inflation has been among the lowest in the world, averaging 2.0% per annum compared to 6.5% for the OECD countries. In real terms, GDP growth averaged 7.6% a year, while GDP per capita in 2000 was two and a half times the level in 1981. Financial supervision MAS’ second responsibility is oversight of the financial sector. MAS was an integrated supervisor long before this became internationally fashionable. When it was formed in 1971, MAS was responsible for both monetary policy and the supervision of banks.
In the case of the ECB, this took the form, among other initiatives, of its decision in October 2008 to extend its commitment to satisfy all demands for liquidity at a fixed rate with full allotment, in such amounts as necessary, and at least until the beginning of 2010. These actions of central banks have been complemented by others by governments, which have set up guarantee systems for the debt issues of financial institutions so that the latter can access the wholesale funding markets, which had been closed even to institutions with the best credit ratings. This type of measure, which averted a total collapse of the financial system, enabled certain markets to show signs of a slight improvement in relation to their situation in September 2008. Such is the case, for example, of the money markets, where there has been a slight correction of risk premia. The public-sector guarantees for financial institutions’ issues boosted the volumes issued on primary fixed-income markets. BIS Review 52/2009  1  However, as mentioned above, normality has not returned to the markets where institutions are looking for funding, and difficulties persist in terms of amounts, prices and maturities. Some of those markets, which had played a very important role prior to the summer of 2007, simply remain closed. This applies, for example, to securitisation and mortgage covered bond markets. There is no doubt that this poses a difficult challenge for credit institutions previously used to practically unlimited liquidity.

Higher bad debts mean higher specific provisions, which, however, were partly offset by general provisions, since some institutions began to use the provision which had been set up for this purpose at a favourable time in the business cycle. In addition, the rise in loan loss provisions was because some institutions decided to increase their provisions to help them face this more uncertain and troubled period, since the system in place in Spain sets an obligatory minimum but permits larger amounts to be set aside when there are signs of problems. In short, analysis of the data for 2008 shows that, although the results of Spanish institutions compare favourably with those of their counterparts in banking systems in other developed countries, income statements have begun to come under downward pressure. This situation, which may persist in the medium-term, is due to a broad range of factors mentioned earlier: narrower net interest margins, smaller fees, lower gains on financial transactions and higher loan loss provisions. Given this complex situation, what courses of action are available? First, it does not now seem reasonable to expect that the narrowing of margins can be offset by increased volumes of activity. Banking activity, particularly lending, has gone from growth rates of more than twice nominal GDP growth before the crisis to rates currently around 5%. It cannot be ruled out that the slowdown of this variable will continue, or even that it will record zero or negative growth rates.
Household expectations also shifted markedly in favour of fewer and later rate increases (Chart 6).8 In parallel, household and business confidence continued to strengthen, reinforcing the economic momentum. For example, the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee voted for higher rates at all of its fourteen meetings between November 2013 and December 2014. 8 For more information, see the box on page 12 of the February 2014 Inflation Report. 7  8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  Chart 6: Households consistently expected increases in interest rates to be gradual and limited Median household Bank Rate expectations Per cent 6  2014 Q1 2015 Q1  Pre-crisis average level of  2016 Q1  5  2017 Q1  4  2018 Q1  3 2 1 0  0  1  2  3 Years ahead  4  5  6  Notes: Household expectations are from the Bank/TNS Inflation Attitudes survey and show how Bank Rate is expected to increase relative to the rate prevailing at the time. Pre-crisis average Bank Rate is calculated from 1997 to 2007 inclusive. In the event, the unemployment rate fell far faster than the MPC had expected, falling below 7% in February 2014. But even as the recovery strengthened and survey indicators of output growth reached levels previously associated with sharp policy tightenings, household, company and market expectations about the future path of policy remained subdued and interest rate volatility remained low (Chart 7).

Our regular press conferences where we inform you and the general public about current economic and financial conditions, as well as about our expectations, as you know, are based entirely on data. It is not always possible to put a detailed analytical focus on everything that is available and which we produce as data. But that’s why we live in the “era of Internet statistics". Let’s take for example the interest rate statistics available on our website. If analyzed in details, its granularity is very high, offering a great deal of information on the amount of interest on different types of deposit and credit products, which can be helpful for all of us to make a 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  personal financial decision based on information. As one of the bearers of our statistical system, we also observe the public’s need for new categories of statistical data and within our competencies we try to respond to that need. Among other things, we have introduced new data on payment card transactions, the monitoring of which will be discussed today. Over the past years, aware that traditional forms of data display are no longer the most appropriate way of disseminating data, with the support of the European Union we have created a modern statistical web portal “NBStat". According to multiple analyzes conducted in the central banking community, advanced web-based statistical web portals are the most upto-date statistical tool that disseminates data in the simplest, fastest and most detailed way.
A conflict of interest concern arises where an official has personal interests that may influence, or may be perceived as influencing, the impartial and objective carrying out of their duties and responsibilities and also extends to, but is not limited to, their direct family members (any parent, child, brother or sister), spouses or partners. - Rules on private financial transactions: officials shall comply with the material rules on private financial transactions laid down in the Ethics Framework of the ECB. It is recommended that officials place their investments under the control of one or more  12  recognised portfolio managers who have full discretion for assets which go beyond those required for ordinary, personal and family use. - Other rules: (i) officials shall not solicit, and shall exercise caution when offered, any advantages which are connected in any way with the duties and responsibilities conferred on them; (ii) officials shall be confident that any award, honour or decoration is compatible with their public status and does not compromise their independence or raise conflict of interest concerns; (iii) officials may only accept invitations to widely attended events such as conferences, receptions or cultural events, if their participation is not adverse to the ECB’s interest, and shall observe particular prudence with regard to individual invitations. 13

This is necessitated by the still high sensitivity of inflation to oneoff factors, as well as its inertia and elevated inflation expectations. As they stabilise close to the target level of inflation, prices are expected to be less responsive to various short-term factors. These new conditions would see no need for additional tightening in the monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation holds near 4%. This conservative strategy in monetary policy may appear unattractive short-term; however it will enable us to deliver on a more sustainable result in the mid-term, that is, deliver on the objective to establish in Russia a low price and cost growth environment – such that favours both households and businesses, as well as the overall economy. Q&A for the Media QUESTION from Vedomosti: Given the Bank of Russia’s move to reduce the rate and its guidance that further rate reduction is not impossible in the second and third quarter, does that suggest that the Bank of Russia has launched a monetary loosening cycle? ELVIRA NABIULLINA: An easing cycle is understood as a process of sequential rate reduction, decided at each policy Board meeting. Having said that, we acknowledge that the sequence of rate cuts may be interrupted, though this would not run counter to an overall mid-term downward movement of the rate. We will move forward with care and precision. For the most part we will be largely guided by economic data as well as, certainly, by our forecasts.
The survey findings indicated that agricultural activities still remained a major source of income for most Zambians but that this sector was largely under-served by financial service providers. The survey findings also showed that there was an increase in the number and types of banking services and products but that the uptake had remained unchanged as the focus of financial service providers appeared to be serving the same market, as opposed to enhancing financial inclusion. Overall, there was a marginal increase of 3.6 percentage points in financial access to 37.3% in 2009 from 33.7% in 2005. Developments in banking, currency and payment systems During the quarter, there was a continued improvement in the availability of electronic payment options. The number of Point of Sale (POS) terminals increased by 3.8% to 1,033 terminals (Quarter 2, 2010: 995). The volume of POS transactions also increased by 15% to 199,817 (Quarter 2, 2010: 173,606) while the values increased by 13% to K86 billion (Quarter 2, 2010: K76 billion). The number of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) increased by 4% to 468 ATMs (Quarter 2 2010: 450). The volume of ATM transactions also increased by 11% to 6,333,073 (Quarter 2 2010: 5,697,122) while the value increased by 16% to K2,898 billion (Quarter 2 2010: K2,498 billion). The Bank would like to continue urging the public to use electronic payment methods as they provide a more convenient, safer, efficient and effective way of making payments.

On an annual basis, M3 growth increased to 32.0% in September 2010 from 27.7% in June 2010. This outturn was due to the rise in NDA by 96.9% (June 2010, rose by 58.2%) primarily on account of increased lending to government. However, the NFA fell by 9.8% compared with a fall of 1.2% recorded in June 2010. Excluding foreign currency deposits that grew by 29.8% (June 2010, fell by 5.9%), money supply growth was 33.2% from the 49.0% recorded in June 2010. Total domestic credit, comprehensively defined to include foreign currency loans, increased by 3.1% at end-September 2010 compared with 10.1% growth registered in the second quarter of 2010. This was mainly due to a 4.4% rise in net claims on central government that contributed 1.7 percentage points to the growth in domestic credit. Similarly, lending to the private sector (including public enterprises) grew by 2.2% and contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total domestic credit outturn. Excluding foreign currency denominated credit, which fell by 4.1%, domestic credit increased by 5.2% compared to the 7.5% registered in June 2010. On an annual basis, domestic credit growth at 13.5% in September 2010 was 10.1 percentage points lower than 23.6% recorded in June 2010. This largely reflected a slowdown in credit to the private sector, including public enterprises, to 0.7% compared with the 25.9% growth recorded in June 2010. This outturn contributed 0.4 percentage points to the total domestic credit growth in the quarter under review.
And it also made clear that in the event of such a shock crystallising, it would be prepared to release the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB).25 In short we have acted to make sure the system is resilient to a worst case major economic shock from Brexit. That does not mean losses would be avoided. Or that it would be without volatility: financial stability does not mean market stability. But it does mean that the financial system would not contribute to and amplify the shock, and would be able to continue to provide critical economic services to the economy. 25  The CCyB is one of the major new regulatory tools introduced after the crisis – allowing regulators to vary system-wide bank capital requirements over time. Bank of England (2016) sets out the FPC’s approach to setting the CCyB. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  It would of course be very valuable to know how markets and investors have formed their expectations of a Brexit outcome and its consequences and how big a correction in any direction might occur if those expectations were not met. But I am not sure it would have changed much how we have acted over the past 18 months. Brexit apart, the risks facing the UK from a correction of the financial cycle are less obvious and more difficult to assess. The overall level of debt in the economy is high by historical and international standards.

Such an outcome may not be what we expect to happen or what is likely to happen but rather the worst possible case. The risk has not been generated by the financial sector. But, if it occurred, it would almost certainly lead to a correction in UK asset prices and losses for UK banks. The task of the FPC has been to ensure that such a correction, were it to occur, would not lead to a UK financial crisis. We have tested the banking system to equal and greater stresses to give us the confidence that while losses would occur, unlike 10 years ago, the system would have the capital to absorb them. We have required the banks to hold liquidity, in the currencies that they would need, to withstand a liquidity stress greater than that experienced in the financial crisis. And the Bank stands ready to provide liquidity in all major currencies. And, with other UK authorities, we have ensured that regardless of the Brexit outcome there should not be disruption to the provision of financial services in the UK by EU firms. The Financial Stability Reports of the FPC over the past 18 months have set out the actions that have been taken. The Record of the Financial Policy Committee’s February meeting, published earlier this week, makes clear the Committee’s assessment that the core of the UK financial system is resilient to, and prepared for, the wide range of risks it could face, including a worst case disorderly Brexit.