samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Even though budget adjustments may curb economic growth in the immediate future, they will help ensure the sustainability of public finances and lower the risk premia of sovereign bonds. We must reverse the growth in debt burden and establish a framework which would support market confidence in the sustainability of public finance management in euro area countries. This is the common interest of all euro area Member States. 3. Alongside crisis management measures, we must lay emphasis on ensuring stability in the long perspective. To ensure an outlook for growth, we must implement structural reforms to enhance economic flexibility, competitiveness and employment. 4. The key task of the Eurosystem central banks, including Eesti Pank, is to ensure general price stability in the euro area. This should be the principle goal of monetary policy and the main mission of the central bank in its efforts to facilitate economic growth and create jobs. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  [CONCERNING ESTONIA] 1. Unlike several other euro area countries, Estonia had no need to engage in local crisis management in 2011. 2. The Estonian economy showed notable adjustment ability against the backdrop of the uncertain environment. Our annual economic growth (7.6%) was the fastest in the euro area. Moreover, the economic developments were far more balanced than before the crisis: the current account was in a moderate surplus and domestic price pressures remained subdued.

Petroleum and luck is, however, not the whole story behind the high per capita income in Norway. We have also been successful in seizing the opportunities that have been offered by changing international environments. The foundations for the Norwegian welfare state were established some two hundred years back in history. Long-term economic developments The Napoleonic Wars, which tormented Europe in the early 19th century, brought some great changes to the face of Europe. Norway took this opportunity to adopt a constitution and establish a number of central governmental institutions, including a central bank. Norway was severely hit by the economic crisis that followed the war, and around 1820 Norway’s GDP per capita was lower than in many comparable countries. In the second half of the 1820s, a new period of economic expansion started. The upturn gathered momentum from the middle of the century. An event which had a considerable impact on Norwegian shipping and economic history took place in 1849 when England repealed all navigation acts regulating the right to transport goods to and from England and its colonies. BIS Review 22/2006  1  This new and more competition-friendly trade environment spurred a rapid build-up of the Norwegian commercial fleet. Norway suddenly became a major exporter of services. As the chart shows, the tonnage of the Norwegian commercial fleet increased almost six-fold from 1850 to 1880. By 1880, Norway had built up the world’s third largest commercial fleet.
This is a role the Bank has endeavoured to play consistently, and for good reason. The more people understand how our economy works, the challenges it is facing and the limited options available to overcome them, the greater the likelihood that policymakers will feel comfortable to take the required decisions promptly, leading to a faster pace of wealth creation, which is one thing we all want. 11. The adoption of the euro will greatly reduce the role of the Central Bank of Malta. What will you be doing in January 2008? Your question reflects a perception that is commonly held but which is not borne out by the experience of the current members of the euro area. It would be more correct to say that the Bank’s role will be greatly changed rather than reduced. Some existing functions will become less important, others more so, and yet others created. On the institutional level, the transfer of responsibility for monetary policy to the ECB would be replaced by the Governor’s participation in the Governing Council where interest rates are set for the euro area. For this purpose, we will need to strengthen our capacity in the areas of economic research, forecasting and statistics and redirect its focus. This also applies to our activities in support of monetary policy, such as open market operations, which would be conducted within the parameters set by the ECB.

Joseph Yam: Competition and cooperation among global and regional financial centres Congratulatory remarks by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the ACI Asia – The Financial Markets Association, Hong Kong, 11 July 2008. *  *  *  Mr Wiebogen, Mr Tan, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is with great pleasure that I join you this evening to mark the inauguration of ACI Asia – The Financial Markets Association. On behalf of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, I would like first to offer my congratulations to all those who have worked hard over the last couple of months on the establishment of ACI Asia. Special congratulations are also appropriate to Mr Wiebogen and Mr Tan for the foresight and leadership they have demonstrated in this initiative. Financial markets in the developed economies have been experiencing considerable stress. At the risk of oversimplifying it, the current financial turmoil can be attributed to financial innovation creating distortions in the financial system, including the compensation schemes for the innovative lot, to such an extent as to lead to a serious erosion of credit standards. It is at a time like this that everybody should be reminded of the importance of professionalism in finance, at all stages of financial intermediation.
As my colleague on the MPC Jan Vlieghe has illustrated, such a change in the distribution of economic outcomes reduces the global equilibrium rate of interest. See ‘Real interest rates and risk’, speech by Gertjan Vlieghe given at the Society of Business Economists’ Annual conference, 15 September 2017. 28 See, for example on pricing behaviour, Cavallo, A (2018), ‘More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors’, paper prepared for the 2018 Jackson Hole Symposium, or ‘The Future of Work’, 2018 Whitaker Lecture given by Mark Carney at the Central Bank of Ireland, 14 September 2018, for a broader discussion of the effects on the Phillips curve. 29 In the UK, the average cut in Bank Rate in easing cycles was larger than the average increase in tightening cycles. For example, Bank Rate was cut by a total of 250 basis points in the easing cycles of 1998-99 and 2001-04. 30 Bernanke, B, Kiley, M and Roberts, J (2019) ‘Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment’, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-009. 31 Reifschneider, D, and Williams, JC (2000) ‘Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32(4), pp. 936-966. 22  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  22  Recent experience in the euro area and elsewhere suggests that policy rates can be cut somewhat below zero. But it is unclear to what extent and for how long – uncertainties that can reduce the efficacy of negative rates.

12 See ‘[De]Globalisation and Inflation’, speech by Mark Carney given at the 2017 IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, 18 September 2017. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  10  private sectors sought to reduce their pace of borrowing. These shorter-term factors pushed the equilibrium interest rate in the UK (and other advanced economies) into negative territory, prompting the adoption of unconventional policies following the crisis. The fading of the headwinds from the crisis implied that some of the fall in the equilibrium rate would gradually unwind, though the structural forces were thought likely to persist for many years to come. As a result, the MPC judged that the pace of Bank Rate increases consistent with eliminating slack and keeping inflation close to the target would be gradual and that, even once spare capacity had been absorbed, the appropriate level of Bank Rate was expected to be materially below the pre-crisis average of 5%. Out of that assessment came the guidance that future rises in Bank Rate were expected to be “limited and gradual” – a phrase so often repeated it became part of the monetary policy furniture. As intended, the MPC’s “limited and gradual” guidance dampened interest rate volatility and reduced the correlation between interest rate volatility and economic uncertainty. Both developments increased the degree of monetary policy stimulus at a given policy rate, thereby reinforcing the recovery during turbulent times. GDP grew robustly over this period, supported by strong consumer and business spending against a backdrop of continued fiscal consolidation.
In particular, the sharp decline in European gas prices reflects unusually mild weather, together with energy-saving measures and strong inventory levels which mitigate supply risks for next winter. The commodity market tensions in 2022 were caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and, therefore, a prolongation of the war is still a major source of uncertainty for Europe. And, more generally, the future course of the world economy is also a matter of concern, against a backdrop of global monetary policy tightening and significant geopolitical risks. Second, in relation to the recent stress in the banking sector, so far the implications have been contained, leading to a certain tightening of overall euro area financial conditions, mainly through its impact on risk premia2. However, should they persist or heighten, these tensions could lead to a sharper than expected tightening of credit conditions and erode confidence and give rise to a scenario of more moderate economic growth and more rapidly declining inflation. A third element that adds a certain degree of complexity to the inflation outlook relates to fiscal policy. In 2022 and 2023, euro area countries significantly increased their fiscal policy support measures to protect businesses and households from rising energy prices and inflation, bringing the total gross stimulus to close to 2% of euro area GDP in both years. While these measures helped to contain inflation in 2022 and are expected to do so in 2023, the extent of their impact this year is still uncertain.

As regards producer prices of imported goods, these have dropped since the end of 2002. This partly reflects the more or less continuous strengthening of the krona between 2001 and 2004, which has had an impact on the prices with a slight lag. Moreover, consumer price inflation in the international market was muted during the last economic slowdown. We have also seen a rise in the share of imports from low-cost countries, which has also contributed to the low rate of price increases for consumer goods. The effect of this shift towards cheaper import countries is not fully captured, however, by the method that we so far have used to forecast import prices. This could be one reason why our forecasts have not completely managed to predict the fall in import prices. This is a problem that we are working on at the moment. The distribution sector also important for inflation The prices of consumer goods have fallen more than the aggregate producer prices of imported and domestic goods. That is because consumer goods prices, in a second step, are also affected by what happens in the distribution sector, i.e. the part of the business sector that distributes goods from producers to consumers. It is difficult to find comprehensive data for the distribution sector, but we have seen that unit labour costs in the sector that includes transportation fell in 2004.
For most of the year, we have worked on elaborating the details of this approach. What is more, Mr Aksakov has already announced that the Duma has adopted the necessary changes to the legislation in the current session, and within a year and a half the banks will be able to choose the type of license they will work under, and subsequently, what regulation will be applied to them. We expect that banks with a basic license will mostly work with small businesses and household finances. Moreover, we are now working on and support the idea of ? ?introducing small business insurance in banks to bolster entrepreneurs’ confidence in small banks. Third. Encouraging competition. This involves developing the capital market, which can offer alternative or complementary products to bank lending. With the development of equity financing and the bond market, private investors will enjoy a wider range of financial investment instruments. Thus, product competition will benefit both real sector enterprises as well as various investors. I would now like to address the objectives that we set for ourselves in the banking sector. We are seeing positive trends in the banking sector. In June, both assets and lending to the economy continued to grow, consumer loans increased significantly, and mortgage lending saw rapid growth. Household deposits also rose. Typically, the share of household deposits in bank liabilities exceeded that of corporate funding.

As our experience has shown, during times of high volatility it is crucial to avoid rash responses to shocks (shocks being any big changes, both positive and negative). This policy suggests that rushed decisions should be avoided. For example, if at the beginning of the year we had lowered the rate at a faster pace, as many wanted us to, we might very well have faced the need to sharply increase it again shortly thereafter. However, there are clearly also shocks such as those in 2014 that require a more decisive response. However, it is important to contend with both the consequences of shocks on inflation as well as the reasons behind them. These reasons are often beyond the Central Bank’s control but this does not mean it is impossible to hit upon suitable state policy measures on the whole. This primarily concerns the dynamics of food inflation and regulated prices and rates. The state policy of developing infrastructure, logistics, market competition (primarily food markets), and the regulation of natural monopolies’ rates can go a long way to reduce price volatility and thus lead to a faster reduction in inflation expectations. This, in turn, will allow the Central Bank to draw the key rate closer to the equilibrium-neutral level faster (I would like to reiterate that, in our estimation, it stands at 2.5-3% in real terms or 6.5-7% in nominal terms).
Investment advice by persons not carrying on a business: a growing number of online discussion fora, chat-rooms and bulletin boards allow persons to post their opinions concerning securities. An entity providing a platform for public discussion of securities would not attract licensing.11 Neither would a participant, as long as he is not deemed to be “carrying on a business” of providing advice. In the context of dealing, we will treat two common practices as passive conduits. First, websites providing hypertext links to, or advertisements for, licensed dealers. But websites should not advertise for, or link users, to unlicensed dealers, including overseas dealers not licensed by MAS. Second, licensing is not necessary for providing prospectuses and application forms passively on websites, or via email upon the request of investors. These merely improve on the efficiency of paper distribution.12 Websites must not go beyond being passive conduits. MAS will consider portals or websites providing facilities for accepting or relaying orders to dealers as licensable. This is because such a facility carries the risk of failure to transmit trade orders in a timely and accurate fashion, potentially to the detriment of investors. Overseas websites specifically targeting Singapore residents Our final principle deals with overseas websites. MAS will apply the same licensing principles to overseas websites which specifically target Singapore residents, as it does to local websites. This is to ensure that foreign and local internet players are treated on the same regulatory basis.

Stefan Ingves: The monetary policy landscape in a financial crisis Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Swedish Economics Association, Stockholm, 31 March 2009. *  *  *  Introduction "The monetary policy landscape in a financial crisis" is the theme of my speech this time. I thought for once that I would begin by showing you a picture. The slide shows an oil painting that was done in 1842 by the English artist William Turner.1 It is called ”Snow Storm – Steam-Boat off a Harbour's Mouth”. It is part of the collection at the Tate Gallery in London. The only thing you need to know about the painting just now is that Turner used a very special technique. He built up the picture gradually by painting several thin, semi-transparent layers on top of each other. He then added somewhat thicker, more pastose sections. As you can see, this layer-by-layer technique gave his paintings a special lustre and a special atmosphere. We would probably say that the atmosphere in this painting is dramatic. Turner's technique can also act as a starting point for a description of the situation today. Reality is made up of different layers. Every layer that is added or peeled away reveals a partly new landscape. We can compare the financial crisis to the snow storm in Turner's painting. In order to paint the picture of the complete storm we need to begin with a layer that describes the macroeconomic preconditions, the macroeconomic landscape.
A dramatic scene in the book is the following: When the clock struck 1, Taraldsen hurried in - the old messenger from Norges Bank; he always trotted with arms flailing. He stopped at Marcussen’s desk and greeted him; an uncertain smile quivering on his old face as he asked: "It is - hmm - of course an oversight?" "What!" responded Marcussen drily. The smile disappeared rather quickly and in breathless surprise Taraldsen asked again: "Aren’t your bills of exchange to be redeemed today?" "No." "Mr. Marcussen! People say that you are a jocular man; but this -" "I’m not joking - damn it!" Old Taraldsen straightened up; everyone was hunched over their work; only young Rasmus’ eyes met his. The boy was white as a sheet; he began to understand. It also started to become clear for old Taraldsen; but immediately afterwards, he became very confused again; because he understood the entire scope of this; he had the entire town's bills of exchange in his head; and of course he had seen a lot of this kind of thing during his long life but all of those were trifles compared to what would happen now. His voice shook as he almost ceremoniously asked: "Will Carsten Løvdahl’s papers be protested?" "Yes," replied Marcussen without looking up. Old Taraldsen trotted out of the offices; but on the steps he met the messenger from Aktiebanken: "Is it true? - Taraldsen!" "Now the entire town is collapsing," answered the old man, throwing up his arms in despair."

The positive outcomes led to an increase in the current account surplus to Rls 338 billion in 2005 in comparison with a surplus of Rls 195 billion in the preceding year. In keeping with these developments, the money stock increased by 11.6 percent. These economic developments took place in an environment marked by stability in domestic prices. The cost of living index increased by less than 1 percent during 2005. It is expected that the positive results of the economy would continue at the same levels in this year, God willing. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, These positive economic developments were achieved in spite of surrounding challenges, internal or external. The composition of the Kingdom's population represents the most prominent challenge. The Saudi youth group (male and female), younger than 30 years, exceeds 60 percent of the Saudi population which entails continued extensive efforts to build Saudi nationals in scientific, health and intellectual terms to carry out their future development role in the best manner. Your direct attention to satisfy the current and future needs of the country and citizens has been embodied by Your directives providing for using a portion of the additional revenues realized due to  BIS Review 111/2006  1  improved fiscal balance in vital areas, at the top of which is the development of human resources as being the first pivot and ultimate goal of development.
During the most recent crisis, the monetary policy authorities cut interest rates sharply and rapidly, and expanded the supply of liquidity. In response to the strong and rapid appreciation  12  Cf. FDF (2012). The Confederation acquired a CHF 6 billion stake in UBS in the form of convertible bonds. 13  Cf. Ilzetzki et al (2010). 14  Cf. SECO (2012). 15  Cf. art. 99 Federal Constitution, art. 5 para 1 National Bank Act and SNB, 92nd Annual Report, 1999. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  of the Swiss franc facing the Swiss economy in summer 2011, the SNB introduced a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 against the euro, thereby helping to stabilise the economy. The excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc is a monetary problem, because it carries the risk of deflation. So it is a problem that has to be dealt with through monetary policy. The minimum exchange rate has met with the support of the general public and the political domain. However, it should be regarded as an extreme measure. It is not a panacea for all the problems facing the Swiss economy, and carries considerable risks. 16 We have seen that both monetary and fiscal policy in Switzerland are focused heavily on stability. Swiss economic policy stands out for having good rules and a stability culture that work through the political structures in a mutually reinforcing way.

The ultimate goal of entry into the euro area is an ambitious one and, for this reason, it is necessary to start preparing for this prospect well in advance. Broadly speaking, the prospect of EU membership should encourage accession countries to make all the macro and microeconomic adjustments necessary to join the euro area. In this way, EU accession may set in motion a virtuous cycle of long-term  4  BIS Review 92/2001  sustainable economic growth. As the experience of current euro area participants shows, accession countries may encounter difficulties, and even sometimes feel frustration, during the different stages of this process. However, these difficulties should not discourage accession countries from going ahead with the project of entry into EU and, later on, the euro area. Undoubtedly, EU enlargement poses great challenges to both the accession countries and to the European Union itself. Creating the right economic and political conditions and adjusting the European institutions for the eventual integration into the EU of all accession countries is certainly an enormous task. However – and here I come back to what I mentioned at the beginning of my speech – the project of European integration should not be regarded just as a stimulating exercise of facing up to never-ending “challenges ahead”, but rather as a historic opportunity to deepen and extend the idea of Europe.