samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
2/18  … and high geopolitical uncertainty  The contraction in world trade, meanwhile, appears to have intensified, against a background of persistent uncertainty surrounding US and Chinese trade policy and intensifying geopolitical risks. Although the deterioration in activity has been particularly intense in manufacturing, the slowdown in recent months in the global services output PMI, which remains in expansionary territory, is indicative of an increased risk of a steeper slowdown in global activity. Given its degree of openness, and the confluence of certain idiosyncratic elements, the euro area economy has been affected more than most by these international trade developments. Specifically, the euro area slowed significantly from the beginning of 2018, mainly due to the sharp moderation in exports. As a result, GDP grew at an average rate of 1.9% last year, down 0.7 pp from 2017, and year-on-year growth since end-2018 has fallen to around 1%. On the latest information available, euro area GDP growth was only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1, weighed down by weak exports and slack investment. By contrast, private consumption continued to grow, driven by the relative relatively robust labour market. On the supply side, industrial activity contracted in this period, while services behaved more positively. By country, the decline in activity in the German economy and the stagnation in Italy were notable. Moreover, the indicators available suggest that euro area economic activity remained weak in Q3. Thus, the trade and industrial activity indicators signalled continuation of the deterioration.

Having said that, while these gains have so far been based mainly on the moderation of labour and financial costs, in the future they will have to come increasingly from genuine increases in productivity. Long-term growth of the Spanish economy: the challenge of productivity The productivity challenge  The timid gains in productivity seen in the past recession and subsequent recovery proved to be insufficient to close the gap separating us from the core European countries. The limited headway in productivity by the Spanish economy should be a cause for great concern, since productivity gains are the only mechanism which can generate sustained, stable growth of per capita income in the long term. The consensus in this respect in economic circles is practically unanimous, and the repute of the studies in this area is attested to by the Nobel prizes in economics awarded to Robert Solow and Paul Romer in 1987 and 2018, respectively, for their contributions in the fields of productivity and longterm economic growth. A few figures will suffice to illustrate how improvements in a community’s standard of living over the long term depend almost entirely on productivity gains. Thus, for example, 80% of the increase in US per capita income since 1948 can be attributed to the growth of total factor productivity (TFP).2 In other words, increases in TFP of around 2% per year have allowed the average US citizen to enjoy inflation-adjusted annual income which in 2015 was about $ 30,000 higher than in 1948.
Against the backdrop of a weaker external economic environment and a more protracted global electronics downturn, near term growth prospects for the Singapore economy have turned significantly weaker while inflationary pressures are subsiding. The slowdown reflects a decline in demand, not an erosion of competitiveness. There is no reason for any persistent weakening of the Singapore dollar. MAS has therefore shifted to a neutral exchange rate policy stance, with a policy band centred on a zero percent appreciation of the $ MAS will continue to guide the $ within this exchange rate band, and stands ready to intervene to dampen excessive volatility should this become necessary. 3  Financial sector supervision and development  MAS' financial sector policies seek to promote a sound and resilient financial system while facilitating innovation, dynamism and competition. Recent and ongoing initiatives by the MAS have focused on: ·  harmonising regulation across the financial sector;  ·  liberalising access to the domestic industry;  ·  promoting corporate governance and market discipline;  ·  implementing a risk-focused supervisory framework; and  ·  developing talent in the financial sector. Harmonising regulation Convergence of financial activities and consolidation of financial institutions have made a more harmonised and integrated approach to regulation more urgent. Consistent regulatory treatment for similar products and activities will help level the playing field; it will also lower compliance costs by streamlining relevant regulations and reporting requirements across activities. As an integrated regulator, MAS has made significant progress in harmonising regulation.

The key policy rate influences interest rates on interbank loans. Banks’ deposit and lending rates and bond yields depend on the current key policy rate and expectations as to future changes in this rate. Lending rates in state banks are also linked to the interest rate on interbank loans and bond yields. The aim of preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched below the operational target of 2.5 per cent was one of the main reasons the interest rate was lowered to a very low level in 2003 and 2004, when inflation receded and approached zero. Low interest rates have stimulated demand and output and gradually led to the prospect of higher inflation, which we are addressing by increasing the interest rate. The labour market is an important factor in how the interest rate functions. A rise in the interest rate curbs aggregate demand for goods, services and labour, and eases the pressure on wages and prices. These effects are amplified by the impact of the interest rate on the krone exchange rate. Higher interest rates contribute in isolation to krone appreciation and to lower profitability in the internationally exposed sector. This can result in lower employment and wage growth in this sector. Expectations with regard to price developments  2  BIS Review 139/2007  also influence wage demands and have an effect when companies adjust their prices. The inflation target can provide an anchor for these expectations.
The range of participants and audience at this conference is precisely something I would like to stress, the main goal of the seminar being to promote an exchange of views and flow of ideas and thinking among the various groups having a say on this topic, namely academia, international organisations, policymakers, social agents and the private sector. Only by covering all the different aspects and by sharing the different country experiences on this matter can we expect to make the right diagnosis of the problems and facilitate the acceptance and implementation of the reforms that might be needed. As you may be aware, I myself have repeatedly been suggesting the need for a labour market reform in Spain. But it is not the goal of this conference to act as a platform for announcing or defending the views of the Banco de España. On the contrary, its spirit is to incorporate different views into the discussion and promote mutual learning. I should like particularly to stress the importance of grounding and testing our opinions and proposals in rigorous analytical and empirical economic research.

Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 8 September 2011. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by Commissioner Rehn. Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above 2% over the months ahead before declining next year. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be moderate, while monetary liquidity remains ample. As expected, the pace of economic growth in the euro area decelerated in the second quarter, following strong growth in the first quarter. Looking ahead, we expect the euro area economy to grow moderately, subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks. At the same time, short-term interest rates are low. While our monetary policy stance remains accommodative, some financing conditions have tightened. It remains essential for monetary policy to focus on its mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term, thereby ensuring that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. A very thorough analysis of all incoming data and developments over the period ahead is warranted.
The CPI figure published today is a little below the expectations of market agents and our own, but as we have said time and again we do not react to the news of the day, although we do take them into account to detect the trends. In any case this figure does not change the direction of monetary policy. Nor does it modify our forecasts of strong growth with limited inflation we include in this Report. Our monetary policy strategy is a preventive one, headed to normalization, and does not respond – luckily – to an inflationary spurt or to some unsustainable expansion process. In this Report’s baseline scenario, gradual progress toward MPR normalization is assumed, but its level will continue to be expansionary still for several quarters. As always, the pace of normalization will depend on how domestic and foreign macroeconomic conditions unfold, and will be consistent with the inflation target. Accordingly, it is essential that we do not lose sight of the external scenario. The latest developments have increased uncertainty about the pace of global growth while financial markets are still highly volatile. Also, the nominal appreciation of the peso over the past few months has been substantial. Although the current levels of the real exchange rate do not reflect an obvious misalignment with its long-term fundamentals, exchange rate movements do affect the conduct of monetary policy significantly, as they play a stabilizing role.

The range for this year has been upgraded from June, based on actual data above projections in the first half and more dynamic figures available for thirdquarter demand and output, which are foreseen to continue into the first half of 2011, prompting output gaps to close in this latter period (figure 7). For the year 2011 GDP is expected to grow by 5.5%–6.5%. Moderation of world growth towards 2011, the dissipation of one-time effects of the crisis and 27-F, plus the gradual withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will result in both output and domestic demand slowing down by the second half of 2011. It is worth noting that y-o-y GDP growth figures in the second quarter of 2011 will be high due to the low basis for comparison associated to the earthquake. Similarly, once the swelling of domestic demand is finished, it should expand next year at a rate the half of the strong growth it should post this year. This will come accompanied with more dynamic export volume growth that will revert the tough 2009 and 2010 years, when exports were affected by the global recession and by the disruptive effects of the earthquake (table 2). The rebound of the Chilean economy is also apparent in a dynamic labor market, where employment is growing strongly and the rate of unemployment has dropped (figure 8).
Given the pre-crisis context, marked with rising capital inflows, falling interest rates and strong confidence, household debt started to increase. By the beginning of the crisis, it reached around 30% of GDP, with very strong growth observed in the Baltics (reaching close to 50% of GDP). As the crisis occurred, the household debt adjusted as well, but the adjustment was mild, declining by only 5 p.p. of GDP after the crisis. It even continued to increase in some countries Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and North Macedonia – facilitated by loose financial conditions with the overall perception for this segment being more diversified, with less of a risk and higher quality profile of the overall portfolio. Bank credit extended to households generally grew faster than corporate credit in most CESEE countries post-crisis. Broken down by purpose, there is a growth in housing loans, but  7  consumer loans have also expanded extensively in most of the CESEE countries. Strong growth in consumer credit warrants close vigilance by authorities, given the risks associated to consumer credit as typically unsecured loans with shorter maturity that increases the exposure to credit risk. Some countries implemented macro-prudential measures to curb consumer credit growth and mitigate potential risks from fast rising households’ credit to financial stability.

2019  2016  2017  2014  2015  2012  2013  2010  2011  2008  2009  2006  2007  2004  2005  2002  2003  0.0 -1.0  2009-2014  Food and energy prices, average (contribution to inflation, in p.p.) Inflation, average consumer prices (change in %)  Source: Eurostat and National Statistics. The contribution of the monetary policy relevant inflation rate – core inflation to the overall inflation in the countries in the region has gained weight in the last couple of years. Still, the overall dynamics of the core inflation remains soft, with average growth at around 1%, very close to the growth in the euro area. Given the fundamental relation between the demand and the dynamics of the core inflation, the first area to be scrutinized is the dynamics of the output gap, which can provide for information on the cyclical position of the economy. The pre–crisis data reveal strong positive output gap, which in 2005-2008 averaged around 5% of the potential GDP. The economies in the region went under strong economic adjustment, as the crisis emerged and their growth was undershooting the potential, leading to negative output gap for much of the post–crisis period except for the past three years. Apparently, despite the post-crisis economic recovery, the momentum gained was not strong enough to lift the output gap away from the negative territory.
To this end, I wish to mention that the Bank of Zambia with other stakeholders is in the process of putting in place a National Switch that will further enhance initiatives such as this one whose launch we are witnessing today. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Bank of Zambia will continue to support any efforts and innovations by the private sector that extend the provision of financial services to the majority of our citizens. I look forward to seeing the product being launched today live up to the expectations of providing a safe, efficient, secure and reliable service to the Zambian people. I hope that all customers will enjoy using the Airtel Money service. With these few remarks, I wish to declare Airtel Money officially launched and wish it all the success. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

This is supported by agreements that have been and are being entered into based on commitments made by the respective members of ASEAN. Financial integration in ASEAN has also adopted a more flexible approach that accords the member countries to participate in the process based on their state of readiness. This is to ensure that no countries will be adversely affected by the process. Additionally, significant efforts have focused on capacity building in a range of areas of banking and finance to promote an  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  inclusive advancement of the integration process in the region. Regional cooperation among policy makers is as focused in regional surveillance and information sharing. This is to facilitate greater understanding of regional issues as well as the detection of risks and vulnerabilities. It is also to provide awareness of the implications and the experience of alternative the policy options to address the wide challenging developments confronting the region. This has improved capability in managing the implications of external developments and potential economic and financial crisis. What businesses can expect In period following the Asian Financial Crisis, the region has made significant strides in strengthening our resilience, agility and capacity of the banking sector. We also now have the emergence of ASEAN financial institutions in the region. While ASEAN commercial banks predominantly mobilise funds at the national level, greater regional financial integration is now being paved for financial institutions in our region to participate in a regional banking network.
We are indeed very pleased to note that there are also many other agencies outside the IMF and WB taking an active role, and often working jointly in an effort to achieve these common goals. We commend these efforts. Together with the establishment of a legal and institutional framework for anti money laundering and combating terrorist financing, it is equally important to raise public awareness on issues pertaining to money laundering and financing of terrorism, and introduce more effective ways of preventing such actions by sharing experiences of other countries. It is not for nothing that the phrase “prevention is better than cure” has been coined. It is therefore our fervent hope that this workshop will, in the next 5 days achieve this objective and also establish a framework for a regional dialogue to: •  2  Share the lessons of success and failure;  BIS Review 9/2007  •  Identify specific problems common to countries of the region;  •  Discuss future challenges common to participating countries particularly in the context of effective programmes already implemented to fight money laundering and terrorist financing,  •  Identify practical means of sustaining economic development and maintaining financial system stability in the face of such terrorist threats. While thanking the Commonwealth Secretariat and all those who have made this Conference possible, we also commend our new FIU for the initiatives it has taken to organize this international event, so early in its existence.

It is in this context that the Central Bank has pledged, in its policy statement, “Road Map: Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2007 and Beyond” that it would expand the work of Financial Intelligence and actively investigate and take actions to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. In the years 2005 and 2006 Sri Lanka made considerable headway in this regard. The main actions in this context were the enactment of three laws, namely, The Convention on the Suppression of Terrorist Financing Act, The Prevention of Money Laundering Act, and the Financial Transactions Reporting Act. The FTR Act created the institutional body of the FIU with regulatory powers and a mandate to formulate policies and guidelines to meet the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) 40 + 9 recommendations. This legislative package was the outcome of an in-depth consultation initiated by an inter-ministerial committee which engaged the stakeholders such as the banks and professional bodies. In the preparation of the legislation, the inter-ministerial committee closely liaised with the IMF in order to ensure that legislation complied with the Financial Action Task Force 40+ 9 recommendations. Even prior to the enactment of this legislation in Sri Lanka, there have been certain punitive measures in place, to discourage individuals from using the country’s financial institutions for Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism activities. These measures were taken under the Exchange Control Act; the Customs Ordinance and the Banking Act.
In the words of James Mackintosh, writer of the Financial Times column “The Short View,” a not insignificant number of stocks in the S&P 500 have valuations “that rely on belief in a financial fairy.” Margin debt is pushing up against all-time records. And, in the bond market, narrow spreads between corporate and Treasury debt reflect lower risk premia on top of already abnormally low nominal yields. We must monitor these indicators very carefully so as to ensure that the ghost of “irrational exuberance” does not haunt us again. QE spillovers As you well know, the effects of unprecedented monetary easing in the U.S. and other advanced economies do not stop at international borders. They spill over onto the rest of the world. Record-low interest rates engineered by central bankers have led investors to seek higher returns elsewhere, generating massive inflows of capital into emerging market economies (EME), including Mexico. Let’s not forget that capital flows to EMEs were large even before the crisis. That said, they rose further as quantitative easing gained momentum in the U.S. and other nations adopted similar policies. For example, U.S. capital stock as a share of home-country GDP rose from 11 percent to 17 percent in Brazil and from 18 percent to 25 percent in Mexico between 2008 and 2012. Capital flows were increasingly made up of portfolio investment rather than direct investment during this time.

Building stronger macroprudential frameworks  The ESRB has promoted stronger macroprudential frameworks across the Union. Specifically the ESRB has issued recommendations to encourage national legislators to establish macroprudential authorities within their jurisdictions. Its Handbook on Operationalising Macroprudential Policy in the Banking Sector embodies practical information on how to set policy using the newly-established powers. The Handbook sets out best practice on an instrument by instrument basis, suggests indicators to guide their use, and outlines the legal framework governing them. It also details potential spillovers. Where it judges that best practice is not being followed, the ESRB can use “soft law” to issue recommendations on an “act or explain” basis to mitigate financial stability risks and curb spillovers. For example, last year the ESRB gave guidance to national macroprudential authorities on how to set countercyclical capital buffer rates. The ESRB will follow up that guidance with a published assessment of implementation in 2016 Q3. With macroprudential policy still in its adolescence, the ESRB is helping it to mature. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Recent ESRB studies have evaluated the case for using margining to counteract pro-cyclical behaviour in derivatives and securities financing transactions. And this year, the ESRB assessed the value of including macroprudential buffers within the leverage ratio framework. The Bank of England has followed this approach to ensure that the leverage ratio complements the risk-weighted capital framework in a way that makes it robust to cyclical and structural risks.