samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  CPIF Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  A simple way of getting rid of the white noise and clarifying the actual trend is to calculate a twelve-month moving average for the series. 14 Figure 3 shows the results of such a calculation. Now the white noise has been removed and the underlying development is shown more clearly. But it must be emphasised that this is the underlying development given the method I have chosen. 14 First I have calculated the level for a twelve-month moving average for the CPIF. Then I have calculated the twelve-month change for the moving average. 6 [19]  Figure 3. CPIF inflation, twelve-month moving average Annual percentage change. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  CPIF, twelve-month moving average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  The second common method of calculating underlying inflation is, as we said, to exclude certain predetermined prices or groups of prices. Perhaps the most common measure used internationally is inflation excluding energy and food prices. Energy prices contribute to more temporary and short-term price movements, the same applies to food prices. One reason for these price movements is temporary variations in demand. Unusual weather can also temporarily affect prices of, for instance, electricity, cereals, fruit and vegetables.

The new method, where one follows the prices on a top list for books sold, probably gives greater variations than the old method where one followed the prices on a number of indicator books. The top list changes every month, while the indicator list changed less often. Sales are now captured to a greater extent than before. 27 Foreign air travel was not included in Table 1, but a new method of measuring prices has contributed to a new seasonal pattern with a higher volatility in recent years. 14 [19]  Underlying measures and actual monetary policy The different measures of underlying inflation give us the opportunity to approach the existing data and view it from different angles. But in the next step, the measures will be used by policymakers responsible for monetary policy. Here a conflict arises between on the one hand bringing forward various underlying measures and on the other hand being clear and transparent about the objective of monetary policy. The conflict become particularly clear if one chooses to use measures of underlying inflation that systematically deviate from the actual rate of inflation. Or, in other words, the poorer the measure of underlying measure of inflation, the greater the communication challenges. I would say that we have seen clear examples of this conflict in recent years: In June 2018, analysts at Handelsbanken Capital Markets considered it necessary to deny that the Riksbank had changed its target variable in a newsletter.
We have addressed, since then, most of the recommendations set out in the Mutual Evaluation Report (or MER), including the only Non-Compliant rating in terms of SR IX by implementing the cross border cash transportation declaration system since January 2010. Moving forward, considering the rising threat of cross border money laundering and greater emphasis on the effectiveness of the AML/CFT framework, a more strategic approach is undertaken. This is also undertaken as a tool to support the Malaysia’s National Key Result Areas (NKRAs), particularly the first and the second NKRAs, i.e., initiatives to reduce crime and combat corruption. For this, Malaysia has formulated (in 2009) a 3-year National AML/CFT Strategic Plan 2010–2012 as a strategic tool to achieve the desired results of AML/CFT regime. The Strategic Plan includes a set of strategies to achieve specific Desired Outcomes in four key areas; focused implementation; enhancement of the legal framework; improvement of the institutional framework; and capacity building. The Plan covers not only the aspect of preventive measures for financial institutions and designated non-financial businesses and professions (DNFBPs), but also the aspects of legal, financial intelligence and law enforcement, as well as domestic and international cooperation. As the Strategic Plan will be officially rolled out soon, Bank Negara Malaysia and the relevant agencies have started to implement the action plan in stages. The ML/TF investigation and prosecution have been intensified. To date, there have been 94 money laundering cases at various stages of prosecution, with more than 3000 charges involving proceeds amounting to RM1.2 billion.

If money such as Bitcoin or Diem become dominant in Norway, we will move closer to a new 4/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  financial system. Let me first point out that a complete eradication of the Norwegian krone requires that the government also uses a different currency for paying salaries and benefits and accepts it as payment for taxes. In the long term, one should be careful to rule out anything completely, but as it stands today, this does not appear very likely. Yet we can imagine an intermediate solution where the government continues to use the krone, while the private sector prefers one or more cryptocurrencies. For this to take place on a large scale, an infrastructure is needed so that the money can be used at more locations than today. Chart: How much does a cup of coffee cost? With many competing currencies in circulation, we will lose the Norwegian krone as a common measurement unit for what goods and services cost. A simple question about how much a cup of coffee costs may have a complicated answer. Prices must be stated in several currencies, and customers and merchants must agree on which currency should be used in the transaction. Wide exchange rate fluctuations can make this particularly demanding. Even with one cryptocurrency in the private sector, those with income in cryptocurrency who pay taxes in Norwegian kroner will incur an exchange rate risk.
Latest Eurostat's flash estimate data revealed that Cyprus HICP is expected to reach 9,6% in August 2022 compared with 3,3% in August 2021. 4/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Taking into consideration the said inflation developments, we expect that our domestic short-term inflation outlook will continue to remain, overall, at very elevated levels, similar to the euro area inflation developments, amid the ongoing significant uncertainty and volatility resulting from the Russian-Ukraine war. More specifically, Cyprus HICP inflation for 2022 has been revised upwards in our most recent projections, reaching 8,4% compared with 7,0% in the CBC June 2022 economic bulletin. Banking sector Now let's consider the developments in the Cyprus banking sector. Data from the sector demonstrates that despite the negative international economic environment, the Sector is proving resilient, exhibiting a solid and healthy financial standing. The solvency position, as measured by the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was edging up to 17,5 percent in the second quarter of 2022, a level higher than the respective European average of 15,2 percent. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio, indicating the availability of liquid funds against deposit outflows over a 30 day stressed period, stood at the level of 320 percent in July 2022 which is more than 3 times higher than the minimum requirement of 100 percent, placing Cyprus amongst the most liquid banking sectors in the Union, where the average LCR amounts to 168 percent.

Facilitating the integration of fintechs into the regulatory framework As regards the fostering of innovation, I would first like to recall a founding principle. As supervisors, we need to promote a regulatory framework that is innovation-friendly, but technology-neutral, in order to encourage the appropriate and uniform treatment of risks: the same activity, same risk, same rule principle. Last year, I drew a parallel with the invention of the railway, which was a major innovation in the 19th century but not devoid of risks. Our role is to prevent the train from going off the tracks and to ensure that passengers are happy to get on board without being afraid. In other words, we need to promote innovation but also confidence in 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  innovation. At the European level, the balance between innovation and security is embodied in the first draft texts of the digital finance package, presented by the European Commission in September 2020. The draft Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) constitutes a first step forward. I would like to stress two key points: it must be adopted quickly, and it must be consolidated. Indeed, technology is advancing rapidly, and decentralised finance, which is an even more crucial area than in September 2020, must be taken into account to avoid leaving any blind spots or allowing alternative circuits to develop without regulation. The draft DORA Act focuses on the key issue of operational resilience, which is vital, notably to address cyber risk.
Fourthly, with globalisation and progressive liberalisation of insurance markets in Asia driving increased competition, the search for growth through new customer segments and improved margins from efficient operations will continue to intensify. In certain markets, players have shifted away from expensive face-to-face channels towards offering simple products through more cost efficient direct marketing channels. Such channels have also enabled insurers to make inroads into previously uninsured segments thereby going beyond just winning market share towards expanding the insurance marketplace. Finally, there is a renewed focus on financial inclusion to ensure that all segments of society benefit from economic growth. This includes ensuring that everyone is adequately protected from catastrophic events and other adverse shocks. Swiss Re has estimated the mortality protection gap in South and East Asia to be around USD32 trillion 8. Closing these gaps would require a clear vision to which all stakeholders, from the insurance industry to the Government and financial regulators, must aspire through stronger collaboration and coordinated initiatives. In this regard the Bank aims to increase the insurance and takaful penetration rate in Malaysia, defined as number of policies per population, to 75% by 2020 9 supported by other measures to promote the long-term sustainable growth and development of the industry as outlined in the Life Insurance and Family Takaful Framework (LIFE Framework). In the environment I have just described, insurers can no longer afford to rely solely on traditional business models and delivery channels.

However, from the point of view of financial stability we cannot completely disregard the possibility of capital outflow from the OFZ market if external or internal shocks were to take place. The Bank of Russia conducted a survey of foreign investors regarding their investment strategy in Russian sovereign bonds. The results of the survey show that a significant portion of investors buying OFZ admit that these may be sold prior to maturity. Such risks need to be taken into account and their impact on the economy reduced through clear and predictable policy. This is important because the situation on global markets remains fragile and volatile while uncertainty persists in a number of factors. Such factors include what format a British exit from the European Union will take, at this point still unclear; the possible negative consequences that will result from changing economic and trade policies in the United States; and the aggravation of political risks in Europe. The heightened risk of negative developments in the Chinese economy, given the high degree of debt load in the economy and increase in the number of corporate defaults over the last year, may also prove to be an important factor. However, seeing as total capital inflow is considered to be small, risks to financial stability associated with the possible outflow of this capital remain quite low. The excessive optimism currently experienced in global financial markets may also be a cause for concern.
Since the crisis, cross-border banking lending has halved, and the ability of the European system to recycle the surplus savings of peripheral nations to other parts of the private sector has been severely curtailed. The good news is that European authorities recognise the need to re-found the euro area financial union on the principle of risk sharing. The current fragmentation of the system stems in part from a collapse of confidence in financial institutions across national borders. The recent Asset Quality Review and stress tests conducted by the ECB represent a major step towards restoring that confidence. Close to € of capital has been raised since January 2014 as a result. 21 The establishment of a Banking Union and Single Resolution Mechanism as well as implementation of the G20 proposal on Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) will help break the link between sovereigns and banks and establish greater risk sharing between creditors and debtors. When combined with improved resiliency of banks, more sustainable crossborder banking flows should grow with time. It is also welcome that the new Commission has advocated the creation of a Capital Markets Union to boost cross-border flows of market-based finance. Such a union would deepen the single market, could benefit all member states, and could promote much greater crossborder risk sharing within the euro area. Had the cross-border financing of deficit countries taken the form of equity rather than debt, firms in deficit countries would have been more robust and losses would have been dispersed.

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
Most of the local banks also service small depositors. This will continue. However, over the longer term, the conflicting pressures on banks on the one hand to provide a public service, and on the other to earn competitive returns for shareholders, will persist and intensify. ABS has encouraged banks that engage in consumer banking to provide affordable basic banking services to lower income Singaporeans. MAS welcomes this, and hopes that these banks will find ways to meet this need. MAS will monitor the situation closely, together with ABS and the banks. When it becomes necessary, MAS will require all banks with significant retail operations in Singapore to provide basic banking accounts with defined minimum features to low income Singaporeans. Cross-border partnerships As the financial industry continues to change rapidly and the global banks grow even larger, consolidation among the local banks alone may not be sufficient. Apart from seeking growth and acquisitions abroad, the local banks may also seek out foreign partners. Strategic partners can bring expertise and market discipline to Singapore banks. MAS has encouraged the local banks to explore such strategic alliances and is prepared to approve significant stakes by foreign banks, provided three conditions are met:  4  BIS Review 61/2001  a. One, the foreign player must be more than a financial investor. It must become a strategic partner bringing specialised skills, new technologies, or business strategies to the bank. The outcome must be in the long term interests of the bank;  b.

Here is it very important that the forecasts central banks consider in making monetary policy decisions are explicit about assumptions for future asset price movements, the uncertainty that surrounds them, the sensitivity of the forecast to alternative assumptions, and the costs and consequences of alternative paths for monetary policy. Even in circumstances where asset prices may appear to have moved away from fundamentals, and it seems reasonable to consider the implications of some deceleration in the pace of future increase or some decline, central banks need to be very cautious about adjusting policy in anticipation of that event, much less directing policy at inducing it. The substantial uncertainty about the path of asset price movements going forward necessarily reduces the case for altering policy in advance of the move. Consider the case in which it seems prudent for the central bank to incorporate an assumption for a significant move in the rate of change in future asset prices into its forecasts for output and inflation. If the central bank’s assumption is that asset prices are likely to fall over the forecast horizon, perhaps in the wake of a sustained rise in those prices, then it might in turn forecast a softer path for aggregate demand. These changes in the outlook might imply a lower expected path for the target rate than would have been implied by a different assumed path for the behavior of asset prices.
If market discipline is to be effective, however, it must be supported by substantial and meaningful public disclosure - as well as sound accounting standards and an efficient and credible legal framework. Knowing a company's appetite for risk and its approach to, and methodologies for, managing risk is essential to understanding the risks of being a shareholder, a creditor, or a counterparty. While significant progress has been made in recent years in improving disclosure practices, it unfortunately remains the case that many of these practices have simply not kept pace either with the rapid changes in many firms' business activities and risk exposures or with how these exposures are measured and managed. For this situation to be fully remedied, notions of what is proprietary information and what should be in the public domain must change. There can be no doubt about the need for dramatic progress in improving disclosure practices. Clearly, a full appreciation of risk cannot be achieved without sufficient information. This past year has made all too clear that there is no greater enemy to financial stability than a loss of confidence - and nothing undermines confidence more than a lack of reliable information. Discipline imposed by markets might not be pleasant, but fuller, higher-quality information - in a word, transparency - bolsters the confidence of depositors and other creditors and thereby makes doing business easier and more secure for everyone.

Each of these intangible assets has value, but this value can be lost in a heartbeat. While it is true that a tangible asset such as a factory can burn to the ground overnight, intangibles, unlike a factory, usually cannot be insured. A challenge to current accounting - and disclosure - rules, therefore, is how to reflect accurately not only the value of intangible assets, but also their vulnerabilities to sharp downward revaluations. BIS Review 57/2002  5  In terms of complex financial transactions, this past year's events have made clear that accounting and disclosure rules have failed to keep pace with financial innovation. Complex financial arrangements, such as those funded offshore or through special-purpose entities, are not effectively addressed in today's accounting and disclosure rules. We also saw telecom equipment manufacturers run up billions of dollars’ worth of customer guarantees, which under current accounting and disclosure guidelines did not have to be recognized in financial accounts or disclosed to investors until their customers defaulted or were near default. In these cases, it seems clear, one of the basic tenets of accounting and disclosure rules - that there should be no “hidden” liabilities - seems to have been violated. I would like to see much more done to address these deficiencies without unduly burdening the readers of accounting statements. 4. Disclosure  Disclosure is most useful as a complement to accounting statements.
12 It is important that banks’ balance sheets are easy to understand. It is also important that banks improve their depositto-loan ratios and increase their access to long-term market funding with a view to reducing their vulnerability to sentiment shifts in money markets. We cannot have a situation in the future where our banks panic after only a few weeks of unrest in international financial markets. Banking regulation should also be adjusted in order to dampen the impact of credit cycles on the economy. In an upturn, banks’ loan losses are low and profits rise. The supply of capital  11  Charles Bean (2009) refers to the spread of liquidity problems as a result of solvency problems in individual banks as a “lemons” problem in money markets. The expression comes from an article by George Akerlof (1970): “The market for ‘lemons’: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84:488-500. The article shows how a market can collapse when the buyer of a product (a secondhand car, which can prove to be a defective car or “lemon”) cannot verify the quality of the product beforehand. The analogy to the money market is when a lender in the money market does not always know the financial strength of the borrowing bank. The money market may then function poorly. See Charles Bean (2009): “The Great Moderation, the Great Panic and the Great Contraction”, Schumpeter Lecture, Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. 12  See Jean Tirole (2009): “Illiquidity and All Its Friends”.

The regional tradition is poor, of little inheritance in institutions, market rule and behaviour, and financial intermediation. However, today, about 15 years after the big collapse of the communist regime it seems that South East European Countries (SEEC) have been engaged in an irreversible process of their stabilization and integration with the rest of Europe. 2  BIS Review 44/2005