samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Blinder, A. and R. Reis (2005), “Understanding the Greenspan Standard,” in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium 2005, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp. 11-96. Brayton, F. and P. Tinsley (1996), “A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Calvo, G. and C. Reinhart (2002), “Fear of Floating,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2, pp. 379-408. Calvo, G., L. Leiderman and C. Reinhart (1996), “Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 10, pp. 23-139. Cecchetti, S., H. Genberg, J. Lipsky y S. Wadhawani (2000), Asset Prices and Central Bank Policy, Geneva Reports on the World Economy No, 2, ICMB and CEPR. Cowan, K. and J. De Gregorio (2007), “International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile,” in S. Edwards (ed. ), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, NBER and The University of Chicago Press. Cowan, K., J. De Gregorio, A. Micco and C. Neilson (2008), “Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops and Sudden Starts,” in Cowan, K., S. Edwards y R. Valdes (eds. ), Current Account and External Finance, Central Bank of Chile. De Gregorio, J. (2009a), “Implementation of Inflation Targets in Emerging Markets,” in G. Hammond, R. Kanbur and E. Prasad (eds. ), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, London, Bank of England. De Gregorio, J.

BIS Review 113/2009  11  Figure 4 Inflation indicators (annual change, percentage)  (monthly change, percentage)  10  10  2.0  2.0  8  8  1.5  1.5  6  6  1.0  1.0  4  4  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0  2  2  -0.5  -0.5  0  0  -1.0  -1.0  -2  -2  -1.5  -1.5  07  08  09  07  08  CPI CPI exc. foodstuffs and energy  09  CPI  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute. Figure 5 Monetary policy interest rate (percentage) 9  9  8  8  7  7  6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  04  Jul. 05  Jul. 06  Jul. 07  Jul. 08  Jul. 09  Jul. 0  Source: Central Bank of Chile. 12  BIS Review 113/2009  Figure 6 GDP, Domestic demand and Output gap (percentage) 16  16  12  12  8  8  4  4  0  0  -4  -4  -8  -8  -12  -12  04.I  05.I  06.I  07.I  GDP (annual change) Domestic demand (annual change)  08.I  09.I  Output gap  Source: Central Bank of Chile.
There haven’t been significant amendments to the Monetary Law Act in that period and our objectives still remain the same; the control of inflation, the promotion of financial stability and banking sector and financial system stability and the thrust for a broader economic development of the whole country, that in a nutshell is what our objectives are, which is very clear, its unambiguous and it has kept us on the straight and narrow path through some fairly challenging periods. I think there are very few central banks in the world that have gone through the sort of events that we have been through, most notably the bomb blast which you know affected us, the physical lives of several of our colleagues and their families and such like over the years. And that was related obviously to the civil strives that this country went through for almost thirty years. Nevertheless I think the central bank has maintained financial stability, we have kept inflation reasonably under control, and the economic development of the country has done reasonably well despite those challenges, which is in no small measure due to the efforts of successive generations of central bankers who have stuck to their principles by and large and kept the momentum of the country moving forward. So it is appropriate for us to take a moment and just accept a little bit of self-congratulation at this point of time.

In addition to surveys, international organizations have mobilized to develop a range of indicators to assess the different dimensions of financial inclusion. Since the Cannes Summit in 2011, the G20 has focused on developing financial inclusion indicators, including indicators on access to and use of financial services, financial literacy, and the quality of financial service provisioning and consumption, as part of a continuous reflection process integrating new international trends in this field, notably the development of new distribution models and the emergence of digital financial services. The AFI also published a set of basic indicators on access to and use of financial services in 2013 and on quality in 2016 with the aim of harmonizing data among its members by providing them with a common tool to ensure comparability and foster peer learning. Ladies and gentlemen, In Morocco, since 2007 both the Ministry of Finance and Bank AlMaghrib have considered financial inclusion as a major instrument to develop a comprehensive strategy of the financial sector by 2020 which aims to deepen the national banking market, develop capital markets and position our country as a regional financial hub. Through our commitment to the Maya Declaration in 2013, we announced our pledge to promote access to and use of quality financial services based on sound and solid foundations. That same pledge was 4  reaffirmed in 2016 as part of the roadmap of aligning the Moroccan financial sector to sustainable development goals at the COP 22 held last year in Marrakech.
José De Gregorio: Tackling the capital inflow challenge Speech by Mr José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the Bank of Spain, the IE Business School in Madrid, and CEMLA’s Meeting of Central Bank Governors of Latin America and Spain in Buenos Aires, the three of them in May 2010. *  *  *  I thank the valuable comments of Kevin Cowan, Pablo García and Enrique Orellana. The last few years have brought unprecedented challenges to macroeconomic management in small, open economies. The severe inflationary shock that began in 2007 was followed by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a worldwide economic recession with no match in the postwar period. Today, a while after the immediate resolution of the crisis, we face new challenges. On the one hand, some developed economies, whose public finances were severely damaged by the great recession, now face a period of drastic macroeconomic adjustments and, in some cases, uncertainty about how their debts will be restructured. On the other hand, a substantial segment of emerging economies, which suffered no permanent damages in the balance sheets of their households, firms, or governments, is currently experiencing what can be an incipient start of a credit and economic rebound. The new momentum of capital inflows mirrors this phenomenon. The current status of these inflows and how to deal with them are a substantial part of the challenges we face today and the substance of this document.

iii)  Third, a domestic card association had indicated early on that it would build a shared NFC platform for its member banks, which is able to support over 20 banks  3  Based on statistics from Octopus, HKICL, HKMA. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  to provide NFC payment services. The project would to a large extent achieve the objective of having a piece of interoperable infrastructure. 23. So far, the market-driven approach has served us well. One stored value card company has launched such services, so have four other banks, in partnership with two major card associations. By the end of this year, the shared NFC payment platform I mentioned should be ready for operation. IV. Sound regulatory framework  24. While Hong Kong is well-positioned to capture business opportunities brought by mcommerce, we need a legal and regulatory framework to address the related risks. With that in mind, the HKMA and the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau are jointly proposing a regulatory regime for stored value facilities and retail payment systems in Hong Kong. 25. Under the new framework, multi-purpose stored value facilities would need to be licenced and observe a set of regulatory requirements. For instance, it must have a physical presence in Hong Kong and must be a body corporate under Hong Kong law. The issuer must meet a minimum ongoing capital requirement of $ million. There are also “fit and proper” requirements on management and ownership. 26. Of particular importance is the need for adequate consumer protection.
Asia has no shortage of funds, only that its high level of savings are invested in less liquid long-term investments. Thus, one of the more pressing issues in Asia is to build a more competitive, stable financial system and a robust infrastructure to facilitate efficient financial intermediation. The better risk management of the financial system would also assist both corporations and investors to manage also their risks better. Ultimately, a balanced and flexible economy with sound risk management will then be in a better position to withstand global shocks and avoid crisis. The need for national risk management 20. We are all aware of the complexities of risks in financial markets. Aside from credit risks, market risks such as interest rate, exchange rate, legal risks, operational risks and systemic risks all have to be managed, both at the micro level and at the macro level. All markets suffer from the “fallacy of composition”. Mistakes at the corporate or bank level will add up to national mistakes, which now may add up to regional or international crisis through contagion. Traditional risk management at corporate or sectoral level simply shift risks from one sector to another. Risks still remain in the economy as a whole. Thus, increasingly in the 1980s, there emerged the awareness that financial sector regulation was all about national risk management. 21. National risk management covers six major aspects:  •  Credible policies, with monetary and fiscal policies consistent with each other, and applied consistently. •  Capital account liberalization should be phased appropriately.

With the sustained budget surplus and accumulated surplus on the Exchange Fund and Land Fund assets, the actual amount of foreign reserves in Hong Kong amounted to $ billion at the end of September, the third largest in the world. This is more than seven times Hong Kong dollar cash in circulation or over three times $ M1. 30. The currency board system has an automatic adjustment mechanism to maintain exchange rate stability. When there are outflows of funds from the Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will sell US dollars to banks for Hong Kong dollar. On settlement day, the HKMA will debit the clearing accounts of the banks for the necessary amounts of Hong Kong dollars in return for the US dollar that will be credited to the New York accounts of the same banks. Since banks may have sold more Hong Kong dollars than they have in their clearing accounts with the HKMA, they can only obtain Hong Kong dollars by borrowing from other banks, by bidding up the interbank rates, or selling back the US dollars to the HKMA, that is, by reversing their short position. In fact, the banks do not hold excess Hong Kong dollars because they are generally long in foreign currency. The latest data at the end of July shows that the Hong Kong banking system is short roughly $ billion or $ billion. 31.
Today, a central bank in a small open market economy, which would wish to turn a blind eye on the developments in the external environment and focus solely on the developments in the national economy, is doomed to failure. Secondly, globalisation changes the wage and price setting mechanisms in the national economy, which have an impact on the domestic inflation. Globalisation (the growing openness of economies) through the growing share of countries with low manufacturing costs in the global output - increases the margin and wage pressures, in consequence lowering the inflation. At the same time, globalisation drives up commodity prices, and thus contributes to - at least temporarily - increased inflation. Thirdly, increased international migration of workforce changes the situation on local labour markets. Where the workforce outflows, the wage pressures increase; in the case of an inflow of workforce, the wage pressures go down. Fourthly, globalisation changes the functioning of financial markets and increases the uncertainty as to the impact of decisions made by the central bank on these markets and on macroeconomic variables. Fifthly, globalisation has an impact on the central bank’s perception of the economic environment and the monetary policy strategy it applies. A fast transfer of the economic know-how (flow of the economic knowledge and analytical methods) changes the methods of economic analysis by central bank economists, as well as the way decisions regarding the monetary policy are made. Sixthly, globalisation increases the risk of speculative bubbles on the assets market.

As a result, the effect of tightening the monetary policy on the aggregate demand has been significantly contained due to lack of response from long-term interest rates. In the world of global financial markets nobody seems to be surprised by the fact that during the session of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC 19 ) of the American Federal Reserve, the eyes of the entire financial market are fixed on its Chairman. Why is that? Decisions made by the FOMC in Washington are equally as important for investors in New York as those in London, Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai or even Warsaw. Not only do the FOMC decisions influence US economy, but also - via the financial markets channel - the entire global economy. An unexpected increase in interest rates in the USA may bring about a sudden outflow of capital from the emerging markets, and thus weaken the currencies of those countries and increase their bond yields. Some economists 20 make the point that an important aspect of the growing internationalisation of financial markets is increased discipline, which is extorted by investors on governments and central banks in individual countries. According to this hypothesis, the financial markets, through their continuous valuation of securities, duly reward good and punish bad economic policies. However, the empirical results do not provide hard evidence to support the thesis on fiscal policy discipline.
So the HKMA will, in the months and years ahead, collaborate with the industry to reach out to the corporates on the Mainland and overseas to promote Hong Kong as the hub for corporate treasury centres. This is an ongoing endeavour for which the support of the TMA and its members is greatly needed. Credibility 21. As I am running out of time, I just wish to have a brief word on the second component of a Brand, and that is credibility. It is not enough just to sell good quality products to customers. Like any world class brands in cars, watches and luxury goods, post-sale maintenance or support service is equally important. In other words, the success of a “Brand” also rests on establishing a reputation for being credible – to deliver a product that stands up to what it is sold for. 22. Credibility is even more important when it comes to financial services. This is because financial products usually have a finite life, and very often customers need to renew or purchase similar or different products from time to time. To develop into a long-lasting and successful “Brand”, Hong Kong must be able to provide a platform for offering products that can effectively meet the changing needs of customers. While such needs are always evolving, one thing never changes, and that is “fair treatment of customers”.

I don’t think so, judging from the strong investor reactions after the collapse of many internet-based crowd funding platforms on the Mainland and overseas. 12. While regulators like the HKMA must exercise care when new technology is introduced in financial services, there are understandable concerns amongst the Fintech industry that overly rigid or conservative regulations may stifle new technology and innovation. So how do we in the HKMA deal with this issue? Let me say this: the regulatory philosophy of the HKMA is that we adopt a risk-based and technology neutral approach. Specifically, we would endeavour to see through the nature and magnitude of the risks involved in a financial transaction or product without positive or negative discrimination on whether a new technology is used. However, it is important not to misinterpret this “technology neutral” approach as one that is insensitive to the contributions that Fintech and innovation can bring to the financial sector. The more correct narrative is that, without compromising consumer and investor protection, the HKMA embraces the use of Fintech and innovation. A practical demonstration of our effort in supporting Fintech development in Hong Kong is the setting up of the “Fintech Facilitation Office” (FFO) by the HKMA earlier this year. In May, the FFO launched its first major initiative, namely, the “Cybersecurity Fortification Initiative”. It is a major endeavour involving the key stakeholders in the banking as well as the Fintech industry. In the interest of time, I do not propose to say much about this important initiative today. 13.
Furthermore, the CET is foregone in the case of all those non-EU countries which benefit from preferential access of the EU market, especially in the case of raw materials. This means that imports can be purchased from alternative sources, possibly from the enlarged EU market, or from non-EU countries which enjoy access to the EU market. Finally, the CET is also suspended when the imported raw material is re-exported outside the EU as a finished 19 product . So while the costs of production for some sectors of the economy may increase, and this in turn could have implications for inflation, at least in the short-run, this impact is likely to be minimal in practice. As a member Malta would also assume the EU’s commitments under the non-reciprocal agreements with developing countries. Whereas this could have negative implications for specific sectors, for the economy as a whole these effects are unlikely to be significant or enduring. This is because the proportion of imports from these countries in Malta’s import bill is marginal. Second, the Cotonou Agreement, which is the EU’s most relevant agreement in this regard, will expire in 2008, by which 20 time it is expected to be superseded by Economic Partnership Agreements based on reciprocity. If anything, therefore, the EU network of reciprocal trade agreements will increase. Within a few years importers and consumers should thus have more and not less access to duty-free imports, and any short-run increases in inflation should be more than neutralised.

In addition, although the EU has not yet reached all the objectives of the 1999 Financial Services Action Plan, there is evidence that they will be met on schedule, not least because the euro will provide the market with the necessary impetus to identify the remaining obstacles to the completion of the single market. A clear example of this is provided by the regulation on cross-border payments in euro which seeks to eliminate unjustifiable differences between charges on cross-border transfers and  24  On the same reasoning Malta should withdraw from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development since it is no longer entitled to financing from these institutions. This, however, has not occurred because it is recognised that membership in these institutions yields more than monetary benefits. BIS Review 69/2002  7  those on transfers within Member States. Another consists of the initiatives underway to extend the single passport beyond the banking sector to investment services, insurance intermediaries and securities markets. This will have at least two implications. First, a financial product licensed in one Member State would automatically be recognised in all others without the need for the service provider to go through licensing and listing procedures afresh. For financial service providers this is an opportunity to by-pass the regulatory and other barriers that would otherwise render them uncompetitive.
Also, in this case, the effects have been uneven across banks, given what were diverging starting positions and the differing degree of exposure to the regions, sectors, firms and population groups most affected by the crisis. One area where the impact of the crisis is most visible is public finances, which have seen a deterioration with few precedents in peacetime. The budget deficit was up almost 7 pp to over 10% of GDP. And the rise in the public debt ratio exceeded 20 pp, to around 120%. In short, a little over a year later, the consequences of the pandemic remain very much apparent in the economy. Output and employment are still some distance off their preCOVID levels, markedly so in certain services sectors, and the general government sector as a whole and some households and firms segments have seen their financial position worsen significantly. Further, financial institutions, whose profitability has fallen, will foreseeably witness a progressive worsening of their credit portfolio. The medium-term outlook: uncertainty remains high But what is the outlook ahead? As stated, the successive waves of the pandemic have checked the recovery after the summer. Indeed, quarterly GDP growth in Spain was zero in 2020 Q4 and, for 2021 Q1, our projections under the baseline scenario point to slightly negative growth of -0.4%. 2  Specifically, in the industries involving social interaction, half the people employed reside in households where saving is lower than one-quarter of their annual income.

I am pleased to now introduce the first President and Dean of the Asia School of Business, Professor Charles Fine. Professor Fine is the Chrysler Leaders for Global Operations Professor of Management, and a Professor of Operations Management and Engineering Systems, at MIT Sloan. He has served as a Professor at MIT Sloan for over 30 years, and has teaching experience as a visiting faculty at the Stanford Business School, the Harvard Business School and the Indian Business School. His research focuses mainly on supply chain strategy and value chain roadmapping. His work has supported the design and improvement of supply chain relationships for companies in the electronics, automotive, aerospace, communications, and consumer products industries. Kindly join me in welcoming Professor Fine. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches