samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Creative Economy Speech given by Andrew G Haldane Chief Economist Bank of England The Inaugural Glasgow School of Art Creative Engagement Lecture The Glasgow School of Art 22 November 2018  The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Marilena Angeli and Shiv Chowla for their help in preparing the text. I would like to thank Philip Bond, Clare Macallan and Mette Nielson for their comments and contributions. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  It is a great pleasure to be at the Glasgow School of Art (GSA). For over 170 years, the GSA has been one of the leading educational institutions in the creative arts in Europe. Today, the School continues to provide a conveyor belt of talent that is fuelling the rise in the creative industries, a sector growing rapidly and one where the UK can genuinely be said to be a world-leader. It is creativity, and its role in improving incomes in the economy and well-being in society, that I will discuss this evening. Now, there is a certain irony in me (a middle-aged career public servant) giving a lecture to you (staff and students at one of Europe’s creative hot-spots) about the determinants and benefits of creativity. Don’t worry, that irony is not lost on me. Nonetheless, I hope that by analysing creativity through an economic and historical lens we can learn something about its key ingredients.

They are unlikely to be the right response to the fourth. The rise of the thinking machine means the future world of work will no longer require narrowly cognitive skills. And in a world of 100-year lives and 70-year careers, educational institutions will need to equip old and young alike with these skills. Developing cognitive skills in the young was a brilliant model for the past 300 years, but not one for our educational future. Many different models are possible. Elsewhere, I have called one possibility multiversities, as distinct from universities.44 The multi serves double-duty. It connotes the need for these new institutions to expand their disciplinary horizons and become less subject-singular. History shows that creativity breakthroughs are often sourced in straddling disciplinary boundaries, in being subject-plural. Creating the right environment for creativity often means breaking free from disciplinary silos. Indeed, if we are to embed a cross-disciplinary culture, we may need to rethink how we classify subjects. Traditional domain-knowledge may make less sense in a creative rather than knowledge-based economy. A new classification system might recognise subjects like creativity and digital literacy, emotional intelligence and empathy, entrepreneurship and design. These would, by design, straddle disciplinary boundaries. The multi also signifies the need to straddle generational, as well as disciplinary, divides. Education will need in future to cater for old and young alike, making lifelong learning a reality. Rather than the sequential model, with first education and then work, we would instead have a rotation model over a career.
2  See also “Comparing the recent financial crisis in the United States and the euro area with the experience of Japan in the 1990s”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, May 2012. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Both episodes clearly share elements of a “balance sheet recession”, where strong credit expansion ends with a sharp correction in asset prices, thereby triggering the need for significant balance sheet adjustment. Yet, the scope of the required adjustment in the euro area when viewed at the aggregate level differs markedly from that in Japan, even if some euro area countries struggle with excessive leverage. In Japan, the sharp fall in equity prices from the peak of 1989 led to losses of almost 80% in the two decades that followed. Real estate prices also precipitated, with urban land prices declining by about 40%. By comparison, at the euro area aggregate level, equity prices fell by about 50% and have already rebounded from their post-Lehman trough, while residential property prices have fallen by a mere 3% since their peak in 2008. Moreover, the levels of indebtedness across sectors clearly differ. As for fiscal imbalances, the fiscal response in Japan meant an increase in public debt from 67% of GDP at the start of the 1990s to about 240% in 2012. For the euro area as a whole, the increase was much smaller, with aggregate debt increasing from below 70% in 2008 to 92% in 2012.

For banks in particular, the majority of the Basel III work – let’s say 80% – has already been done in 2010–2011. However, discussions remain ongoing on the question of the measurement of risk on bank balance sheets. It is in the strategic interests of France and Europe, which has always promoted international rules, to conclude a final agreement on Basel III. We are working hard towards a fair and reasonable agreement. But beyond Basel III, we should finalise measures that target non-banks. We must ensure a balance between financing channels. The priority has now shifted from the solvency of banks, which has improved substantially, to the liquidity of the shadow banking sector, particularly funds and asset management companies that are exposed to the risks of sudden panic-driven runs. Let me conclude my speech by quoting a French Philosopher, who spent many years in the Netherlands: René Descartes. He was both the father of “l’esprit cartésien” – having a clear vision of our aims – and a pragmatist, with this useful principle: “divide each of the difficulties under examination into as many parts as possible and as might be required in order to resolve them better”1. Indeed, we must not get bogged down by misunderstandings, sterile debates and considerations about which of the intergovernmental or community method to use. But in order to move forward, we should combine a holistic vision and a stepwise approach to implementation.
It is difficult to know how quickly this type of measure can have  BIS Review 101/2006  5  an effect, or how substantial the effect will be. There is thus considerable uncertainty in assessments of this nature. The overall assessment we make today is that the new government’s economic policy will have an impact on both supply and demand in the economy, but that the effects on inflation will overall be slight. However, we will have to follow developments closely and regularly evaluate our forecasts. In short, just as we always do. Summary Let me in conclusion summarise the most important points I have taken up today. My main message from the backward glance is as follows: •  The changeover in economic policy that began almost one and a half decades ago has given good results. •  In an efficiently function regime inflation will from time to time deviate somewhat from the target. One reason is that various changes in the economy occur now and then, as they have done in recent years, and the effects of these can be difficult to predict. With regard to future developments, my most important points can be summarised as follows (Figure 15): •  The prospects for the Swedish economy look favourable. We are expecting growth to be good during the forecast period and the labour market situation to continue improving.

The part of the project which is quasi-consensual, with strong use-cases, is the one which raises little public interest – which does not mean that it is not key: wholesale CBDC. I will come back to this later. But let me start with the other face of the CBDC mountain: retail CBDC; this one, by contrast, is the focus of both public excitement and private questions. I. A ‘retail’ CBDC for a renewed intermediation in the digital age Let me suggest three hopefully shared principles to climb together this face of the mountain. 1. Our means of payment are and must remain a partnership between central bank money and commercial bank money  Page 2 sur 7 Until now, the coexistence and partnership of central bank and commercial bank money has structured the retail payment landscape and preserved the stability of the monetary system. Their respective roles are clearly assigned: central bank money anchors the stability of the financial system while the multiplicity of issuers of commercial bank money preserves competition and innovation. Their interplay and their interchangeability at par value ensures the safety and efficiency of the monetary and financial system. Neither one is better than the other, but in a joint venture each partner needs the other: a digital euro should never mean disappearance of commercial  bank money; conversely,  digitalisation cannot mean the disappearance of central bank money. Indeed these foundations – and especially the role of central bank money – are increasingly threatened by the digital revolution of the financial sector.
8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  I noted above that changes in the world of work have very possibly changed the pricing power of labour and workers’ appetite for risk (i.e. job insecurity). This is in itself a large area of current debate and I do not want here to go into these in great detail. 18  Some of these important changes in the structure of the labour market, such as the rise in self-employment and decline in union membership, predated the financial crisis. Others, like the rise in temporary work and zero hours contracts, are more recent. Technology – and the rise of the gig economy – has further increased what my colleague Andy Haldane has called the ‘divisibility’ of labour. The impact of the financial crisis and subsequent recession itself may also have changed workers appetite for risk. Anecdotally this is certainly true; I have lost count of the number times in the last four years, when the discussion on regional visits has turned to pressure for pay increases that I have heard the explanation that workers were “happy just having a job”. This may well be more than anecdote. There is literature on the Great Depression that identifies the lifetime effects on the so called ‘depression babies’ and their attitude to risk.

There are experts to discuss these topics in this Forum and let me not pre-empt them. I hope the deliberations today will bring such issues into light and that there will be a meaningful discussion. I wish the seminar a success. 2  BIS Review 64/2007
In August UK CPI inflation was 9.9%, and a third of the total was directly accounted for by energy (Chart 1). The further indirect effects are likely to be material and have been a factor in the marked pickup in CPI services inflation to 5.9% in August, contributing over 2% to the total. Chart 1: Decompositions of headline inflation rates Contributions to annual consumer price inflation  Sources: ONS for the UK, BEA for the US, Eurostat for the EA and Bank calculations. The second noteworthy development is the trend in UK labour participation. This looks like being one of the most significant economic legacies of the pandemic. Around the turn of the year there were signs that the recovery in the economy was bringing people back in to the labour market; a version of the “encouraged worker” effect which is often seen during cyclical upturns. However these signs petered out, and by July 2022 there were about 500,000 fewer people classed as participating in the labour market than pre-pandemic. In this way the UK stands out compared with most other major economies; the UK participation rate is 0.7 percentage points lower than 2019 levels whereas the median OECD country participation rate is 0.7 percentage points higher[2] (Chart 2). Chart 2: Change in inactivity rate between 2019 and Q1 2022  Sources: OECD and Bank calculations. Notes: UK inactivity rates published by ONS typically use the age band 16-64, but 15-64 are used here for international consistency.

A temporary phase, which we are in, of low interest rates makes it more likely that we will return to a situation where savers get a better deal. It is a temporary phase, but there is no doubt that there are consequences for those looking to earn income. This is not a situation that is ideal. But we are still in the legacy of the crisis and I think this policy path is correct. We also always say that, in terms of the speed of the recovery, European fiscal policymakers can do more. Those countries which have fiscal space can do more to accelerate the recovery. Some have said that the continued low interest rates and quantitative easing have had benefits for large investment funds, and for the area of property investments in particular these benefits come at the expense of individual prospective house buyers, or indeed people who end up renting. It’s become an issue here as it has in other parts of Europe. How would you respond to that? The low interest rate environment has many benefits. It helps to create jobs. For those with a 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  mortgage, it reduces the cost of maintaining that mortgage. For highly indebted governments there is a saving in terms of debt service payments. But there is no doubt about it: it does mean that it raises the purchase price of homes.
Understanding pay gaps Speech given by Andrew G Haldane Chief Economist Bank of England Co-authors: Zahid Amadxarif, Marilena Angeli and Gabija Zemaityte Joint Bank of England, Federal Reserve Bank and European Central Bank conference on Gender and Career Progression Frankfurt 21 October 2019  The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Will Abel, Shiv Chowla, Julia Giese, Brian Hallissey, Sam Juthani, Tomas Key, Clare Macallan, Jen Nemeth, Doug Rendle and Ratidzo Starkey for their comments and contributions. This work contains statistical data from ONS which is Crown Copyright. The use of the ONS statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  Section 1: Introduction “Pay gaps” measure the difference in pay between people with different demographic characteristics doing identical jobs. They are considered to be a good approximation of inequality in workplace rewards (EHRC (2018)). Under the Equality Act 2010, it is against the law to discriminate on the basis of protected personal characteristics. When it comes to pay, this means people should earn the same wage for the same work, irrespective of their gender, race, religion, disability, or other protected characteristics. In other words, no “pay gap” should exist across any of these characteristics.

Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Leaders setting the direction for change Opening remarks by Mr Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Sustainability Leadership Programme for Financial Institutions, 14 July 2021. * * *  Introduction Good afternoon and a very warm welcome to all. Thank you to IBFIM and the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) for this invitation to deliver the opening remarks. At the recent Joint Committee on Climate Change (JC3) Conference held last month, in his address, Sir David Attenborough somewhat laid down the gauntlet, in particular for us in the financial industry. “All of us, no matter who we are, have the responsibility to care for the planet. The future of all humanity now depends on us and on none more than you in the world of finance. You have the fate of the whole world in your hands.” With this in mind, it is quite apt that we are here, senior leaders in the industry, participating in this Sustainability Leadership Programme over the next two days. Over the past 18 months, many have felt the economic and social impact caused by the global health crisis. At the same time, the world has not been spared from natural catastrophes due to climate change. The latest being the mudslide in Atami, Japan. In Malaysia, more than 25,000 people were displaced from their homes due to severe flooding in several states between November 2020 and January 2021.
The third question is whether OMTs are a form of quantitative easing (QE). The answer is: no. First of all, QE is meant to ease the general credit conditions which are considered by the central bank to have become tight in a situation in which the short-term interest rate cannot be reduced further. OMTs are meant instead to restore homogeneous credit conditions throughout the euro area, but not necessarily to ease credit conditions in the aggregate. In the euro area as a region, there are currently no clear signs of deflation fears (see slide 11) that would justify QE. In addition, the channels of transmission are different. QE is expected to act on risk premia (primarily term premia) by subtracting long-duration securities from the market and replacing them with base money, which has a very short duration. This would reduce term premia and bid up the price of long-dated securities. The aim of OMTs however is not to create an excess demand for duration in the market, but to counteract redenomination risk and squeeze redenomination premia out of bond prices. In fact, OMTs focus on relatively short maturities, where premia associated with break-up risk are most evident. Finally, QE would need to be tailored to the specificities of the euro area, where two-thirds of the external financing of non-financial corporations is extended by banks and which does not have access to actively traded credit markets. Conclusions Let me conclude. The effectiveness of monetary policy relies on the control of monetary and credit conditions.

In normal times, when risk factors are contained and can be diversified away, the interest rate channel, working through inter-temporal arbitrage, is the prime conduit of monetary policy (see slide 2). It sets the floor for term borrowing costs. Parsing longer-term yields into two components – the average level of the short-term policy interest rate expected over the term to maturity of the asset, and the risk premia – expectations of monetary policy pin down the first component. The mechanism through which this occurs is the inter-temporal financial arbitrage I just described. Term and liquidity premia are the additional returns that investors demand as a compensation for their reluctance to bear interest rate risk over long-duration assets, and for their decision to forgo liquidity services – I am abstracting here from credit risk, to which I will return later. When markets are properly functioning, non-depository institutions – dealers, hedge funds, investment banks – provide immediacy by offering lenders and borrowers their capacity to take positions on both sides of the market. Their ready availability to take positions as lenders and borrowers supports market liquidity, namely the ease with which a lender can liquidate a position before maturity. When market liquidity is secure, lenders are willing to engage in finance, trades in long-duration assets are active and the liquidity premia are contained. And, most importantly, they are steady. With a steady premium, the expectations  2  There are two reasons for idiosyncratic fluctuations of reserve demand by individual banks.
It is worth remembering, in this  BIS Review 23/2002  3  context, that there is no reason why a cash changeover should have to be made at the start of a year, for practical reasons it would be better implemented in March or October. Another alternative described in the report is known as "Big Bang", i.e. to begin a cash changeover at the same time as the krona exchange rate is fixed and full membership of the monetary union occurs. This scenario requires a preparation period of 2-2.5 years. This makes the demand that the euro can be handled in all transactions in Sweden, both physical and electronic, and by everyone in Sweden, from the corner tobacconist to the National Swedish Social Insurance Board and the major banks from the first day of membership. As this alternative involves a simultaneous changeover in IT systems, other practicalities such as accounting and payment of taxes, as well as a physical cash changeover, it makes high demands on co-ordination and information. Taking into account the longer preparation period prior to the actual EMU membership required in this alternative, it would take longer until Sweden could fully participate in all forums for co-operation and decision-making within the monetary union than would be the case with a gradual transition process. The advantage of this scenario is that it would avoid uncertainty arising among the general public over the position of the euro during the transition period in that the euro could be used everywhere immediately.

But realising this potential would require an inspired leadership by the industry, to rise to challenge the status quo and raise the game in delivering value to stakeholders. After 40 years, I believe the industry is at another crossroad. A new and exciting wave of growth and development for the industries lies ahead of us, but it can only happens if we are prepared once again to embrace the change as we did before, and collectively rise to overcome the barriers that threaten to hold the industry back from achieving its full potential. Reform via introduction of LIFE Framework The next phase of transformation is at our doorstep. As you are well aware, the blueprint for the next phase of change is encapsulated in the proposed LIFE Framework. The Framework lays the ground for greater operational flexibility, competition and diversity in the life insurance industry. More importantly, it will encourage innovation including expanding new delivery channels to reach new target groups, provide the right incentives to raise the professional standards of insurance intermediaries and deliver better value to policyholders. The reforms envisaged also seek to leverage on the digital age which presents immense opportunities to revolutionize the delivery of insurance products in a more effective and cost efficient ways that benefit consumers at large. With Malaysia’s household internet penetration rate of 67.3% and more than 43 million cellular phone subscribers in Malaysia, this mode of delivery certainly demands serious consideration. Let us tap this opportunity in delivering new insurance products and services.