samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Then, just as these bottlenecks were easing as the pandemic receded, UK energy prices rose dramatically following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting dramatic increase in wholesale European natural gas prices. And now, just as those wholesale gas prices have fallen substantially in recent months, we are seeing another inflationary impulse coming from rises in food prices driven, at least in part, by unexpectedly weak crop yields in southern Europe and north Africa. [10] Understood in this way, the persistence of UK inflation is largely a manifestation of ‘bad luck’ – a ‘series of unfortunate events’. It reflects a sequence of fundamentally transitory shocks – each of which monetary policy can do little about, for reasons I have already explained – that have cumulated through time into a more long-lasting elevation of headline inflation. There is much truth in that narrative. But we have to guard against complacency in interpreting recent inflation developments in this way. I recognise that this is potentially both a self-serving and an incomplete view of recent inflation developments in the UK. For one thing, we need to assess whether the surprises we have been confronted with over recent years could have been anticipated by better analysis and research: for example, could we have forecast the vulnerabilities in global supply chains once the pandemic had struck? Or could we have foreseen the dynamics in food prices given agricultural commodity prices?

Likewise, the reforms of the regulation and supervision of the financial industry has taken us in the right direction, and much has been accomplished to make our banks safer. But still much needs to be done to feel the right degree of comfort. Some final words I would direct towards the threat of protectionism. An enormous risk for the global economy is the temptation to shed the commitment to multilateralism and embark on protectionism. Beggar thy neighbor policies are quite perilous, as history amply shows. It is true that trade needs to be both free and fair, that commitments made within the framework of the World Trade Organization and other fora need to be observed. Unless we defend open markets, we invite big commercial conflicts and a proliferation of lose-lose situations. Allow me to conclude my short address by pointing out that as a Romanian official I am confident that important steps have been already taken to ensure a more close cooperation in order to solve the afore mentioned issues. As you know, Romania holds at the moment the Presidency of the Council of European Union and good work has already been done by our team in Bucharest and Brussels. They held 15 working parties in the Council, negotiated in 18 trilogues with the European Parliament, attended over 30 technical meetings, among bilateral meetings, informal consultations with the Parliament and the Commission. They have concluded the work and agreed on two files (Risk Reduction measures – the Banking package and Pan-European Pension Product).
The Bank did this by: setting up a senior level Steering  4  Summarised in http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/qb/1995/qb950107.pdf. 5  Today, the standard settlement times in CREST are T+2 for equities and T+1 for gilts. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Committee to oversee the development of the design; forming many working-level working groups and consulting on all major design decisions; and ensuring that the industry bore the cost of the overall project. The Steering Committee was for making decisions and knocking heads together. According to a “senior banker” quoted by the Independent newspaper, Pen Kent (as Chair) and Iain Saville (as Chief Executive) were a “Mr Nice and Mr Nasty’ duo … bludgeoning the vested interests which sank TAURUS into submission” 6. The consultations were voluminous, had short turn-rounds (some as little as two weeks), and respondents received personalised replies (much to their initial surprise): a strategy christened “choking the cat with cream”. And the financial commitment sought by the Bank was broad-based: when CRESTCo was first established, 69 institutions were asked to subscribe £ in share capital, giving them skin in the game from the start. Second, the project team committed to an approach to building CREST that was simple, focused and open: in the design of the system itself, and in the composition and work practices of the project team. From the start, the November 1993 “Green Book” set out a deliberately minimal blueprint, excluding non-critical functions required only by a few, or which could be performed by users in their own systems.

It’s entirely possible that some new FinTech players will eventually make their mark as enduring brands in finance. But we are also likely to see the growing collaboration I have talked about, between established players and start-ups. It is not a zero sum game. And FinTech ventures are also acting as a catalyst for existing players to reengineer legacy systems. But most importantly, FinTech is promoting a shift from the traditional focus on products to a focus on customers. It’s about understanding their needs, and finding a way of delivering cheaper, or more convenient and more tailored services to the customer. The second tension is also important, and which we must be willing to manage. It’s the tension between allowing for experimentation in finance and preserving trust and credibility in our financial system. They are both important and we must be willing to manage the tension. There was I think, in the first wave of FinTech, a certain breathlessness in the way which new businesses were coming up, and in the way which they were perceived and talked about. Such as, in the (Peer-to-Peer) P2P lending platforms, where the name of the game was often to lend as quickly as you can, leveraging on investments in these FinTech companies. The scene is now maturing. Some of these new lending platforms in the US and elsewhere are now more concerned with the quality of loans they make. Like banks, whose business is credit underwriting, they have to be good at both data analytics and judgment.
The third motivation for more equity is that some companies who can bridge the virus disruption effectively with more debt could then consider their balance sheets overstretched. During the crisis, debt is the natural – fastest – way to raise finance for most companies. That’s why so much support has been provided to allow it to be raised. But it could leave an overhang. That overhang won’t be one that, at current interest rates, presents an acute problem. The share of companies with interest payments taking up a material fraction of revenues is likely to remain low. But it could create a chronic issue for the economy in the longer term. Greater leverage could damage companies’ ability to refinance and access new capital when dealing with future stresses. Governmentguaranteed loans may need to be refinanced at higher rates in future. Looking ahead to these possibilities, many prudent companies will want to repair their balance sheets, holding back on employment and investment to work the overhang off through time. 10  Source: Office for National Statistics 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  7  With enough companies in that position, what makes sense individually could be harmful collectively; it could drag future growth. So it is essential to give companies every means to repair and restructure balance sheets by issuing equity to repay debt. With these three important motivations, the good news is that equity issuance is already strong.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Future responsibility and response-ability  proofing  compliance  -  Keynote address by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 9th International Conference on Financial Crime and Terrorism Financing (IFCTF) "Future proofing Compliance: Responsibility and Response-ability", Kuala Lumpur, 4 October 2017. * * *  "Compliance, Past and Future" This is an important and serious gathering. I am encouraged to see many leaders and key compliance officers of the financial industry here at the International Conference on Financial Crimes and Terrorism Financing, signifying the industry’s commitment to a safer and more secured financial system. It is worth repeating that public trust and confidence in the financial system cannot be compromised. The cost of financial crimes and terrorism financing are staggering. Based on the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), money laundering transactions are estimated to cost economies between 2% to 5% of global GDP. This equals to USD1 to 2 trillion annually. It is a humongous amount. Beyond monetary terms, these activities have destructive consequences for the lives of many, especially the poor and underprivileged. We must do better on this if we really want to ‘future-proof’ our financial system.
We particularly need to strengthen active employment policies to provide the right guidance and training to those who have lost their jobs, thus improving their employability. Another differential characteristic of the Spanish labour market is the high proportion of temporary employment, higher than in any other euro area country. This means that when there is a recession, temporary employees are the first to lose their jobs, which is usually exacerbated by the fact that these individuals belong to vulnerable groups. The harmful effects of temporary employment extend to productivity growth. Resolving this problem calls for changes to hiring mechanisms, so that firing costs differences may be reduced between permanent and temporary contracts, without harming job creation capacity. As well as correcting the structural shortcomings, we must tackle the medium-term challenges, including most notably those stemming from population ageing, climate change and inequality. The rise in the demographic dependency ratio, which will foreseeably double in the coming decades, will exert a significant impact on the economy and, in particular, rising pressure on pension spending. The 2011 and 2013 reforms helped ease these pressures. But the decision to link pensions once again to the CPI will mean additional compensatory measures will have to be taken. There are three parameters within which action can be taken: revenue, expenditure and retirement age. The scale of the problem advises diversifying the measures with broad and stable agreements.

Governance of the information that firms have on customers is a particularly important issue. It appears reasonable that, if it is considered necessary for this information to be available to all operators, such an obligation should have no exceptions, and that its scope should be clear, always observing customer rights. BigTech also exerts pressure on the sector’s profitability, which is already weakened by the impact of the pandemic and by developments in the wake of the global financial crisis. To improve matters, banks should pursue efficiency gains, cutting costs and using new technologies more intensively. In particular, they should refine the use of the information they have, which enables them to improve their business model without raising their risk profile. Consolidation processes may also be useful, though an evaluation of the merits of each proposal is needed, particularly regarding the impact on financial stability. European transnational operations would be particularly positive, given that they would help further the Banking Union. As you can see, the to-do list is an ambitious one, given both the number of tasks and how demanding they are. This is why we must set to work as soon as possible, mindful that the rewards are substantial. Accomplishing these tasks is a job for all of us: authorities, legislators, firms and citizens. We can all contribute to reducing uncertainty when it comes to foreseeing how the future will be.
Clarity and openness were guiding principles for the inflation-targeting regime right from the start, and I believe that this has played an important part in building up confidence in the inflation target. This culture has therefore continued to permeate the Riksbank’s activities. It is also important so that the Riksdag, which is our principal, can evaluate the Bank and require accountability from us. This motive became particularly important when the new wording of the Sveriges Riksbank Act gave the Riksbank an Executive Board with an independent position in 1999. Why 2 per cent? The new wording of the Sveriges Riksbank Act applying from 1999 changed the objective for the Riksbank’s activities to maintaining price stability. The previous Act contained a more general formulation that the Riksbank was responsible for “foreign exchange and credit policies”. When the new wording was produced, it was pointed out in the preliminary work that in principle the Act could be very detailed with regard to the target for inflation and so on. But the legislators judged that this type of precision would not be sufficiently flexible and allow the Riksbank enough scope to adjust the target to different circumstances. This raises the question of what price stability actually is and of whether 2 per cent inflation is the best target for the Riksbank. If one turns to academic literature on this subject, one will not find any clear answers. Everyone agrees that high inflation is detrimental to the economy.

Benefits range from a consistent and standardised application of rules and processes, to seamlessly harnessing the individual institution’s respective infrastructure and promotional activities to realise cost savings arising from the sharing of scarce capital. In the quest for efficiency in the payment systems of the nation, an essential task for the banking industry is thus to strengthen the focus on meeting the specific demands of the consumers, and at the same time, forging alliances in common infrastructure building. The FPX is a right step forward in this direction. The efficiency of the financial system will be further enhanced with the FPX that reduces transaction costs and contributes to the overall functioning of the economy. This advancement forward can only be successfully achieved when there is active participation by the banking institutions, individuals as well as businesses, in utilising and promoting the system nation-wide. Bank Negara Malaysia strongly encourages all banking institutions and users to participate in the FPX to exploit its full potential, a process that would contribute towards the competitive positioning of the Malaysian economy. Ladies and Gentlemen, Economic expansion hinges on the effective intermediation function of the financial system, and the efficiency of funds flow is integral to the overall functioning of the system. To gain significance as a trading nation, the strengthening of commercial facilities, including e-commerce, is pivotal to the process.
Who would have thought that inflation would reach double digit levels? In such an environment, in times of great uncertainty, resilience becomes a key priority for businesses and governments alike. Resilience entails two elements: preventing the build-up of vulnerabilities, and preparing to absorb the shocks when they occur. If you have not done first, the second becomes much more difficult. On prevention, a lot has been done over the past few decades - we are constantly developing new indicators, tools and instruments to address potential vulnerabilities. But, as we very well know, no crisis is the same, so on top of prevention we also need to work on our absorption capacity when a crisis happens. The pandemic has proven that only a swift and massive policy action can mitigate the economic effects of a huge external shock. However, the extent of policy action is limited by the available fiscal space, so this crisis has again highlighted the importance of building fiscal buffers – prevention. On our first two panels today, we'll have a chance to talk about building resilience in areas most hit by the recent shocks – the energy sector and supply chains – while at the same time being mindful of the importance of fiscal prudence. More broadly, in addition to prevention and mitigation policies, for building resilience it is also essential to rebuild trust in governance structures, institutions and data. This is because effective crisis responses depend on public acceptance and adherence to necessary measures and policies.

The higher is the trust in the institutions, the easier it is done. And institutions themselves build credibility in the times of crisis. The second lesson is adaptability. Although resilience and adaptability are linked, they are different in important ways. Resilience entails enduring a challenge, while adaptability refers to the ability to thrive beyond it. In the EU, progress on this front is evident. We have been moving from reactive policies to strategic decision-making. The recent crises brought about some tectonic institutional enhancements: the early months of the pandemic led to the establishment of the EU recovery fund, which constituted a breakthrough for the financial solidarity of member states. The Next Generation EU package provided an anchor for investment in the  2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  green and digital transitions in a way that will support resilience and adaptability in the long term. Finally, the REPowerEU Plan aims to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels, but also entails measures for energy savings, new energy storage rules, and a strategy to buy energy together. That being said, adaptability is difficult to nurture, as we often tend to stick to existing patterns of behaviour and decision-making, especially when there is no imminent crisis that would push changes and force us to think outside the box. The last lesson that I'd like to mention (though you can derive more) is cooperation.
Firms’ management and boards should ensure that in credit assessments equal focus is placed on the liquidity profile of their clients as on their capital strength. Right-way risk is only right-way if a client is still standing when the hedge matures. Investment banks must bear in mind that their positions can play an important role in the functioning of the economy. Whilst it might be good risk management to reduce a client’s exposures when it suffers cash flow stresses from margin calls, was it good risk management for the bank to sleepwalk into that position in the first place? Working with the client to understand and anticipate all possible future outcomes, and access to facilities in order to meet liquidity demands in a stress, should surely be at the cornerstone of a client-centric business. It is important here for banks to think a few steps ahead and have in mind the potential indirect second-round effect of their counterparty management practices – some of which can otherwise  Page 5  come back to hit them. One other common feature of periods of stress has sometimes been the inadequacy of initial margins required by investment banks over the counter. The spike in nickel markets in March 2022 reminded everyone that progress needs to be made here. And while CCPs have lessons to learn, so do banks. When they undercook initial margins in benign times, banks give their clients the illusion that some products – for example hedges – are cheaper than they really should be economically.

At the same time and not withstanding their role in increasingly integrated global value chains, growth in imports has been sluggish, meaning that net trade has provided support to GDP growth. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  5  Taking all of these together leads me to conclude that, although the resilience of growth in the wake of the referendum has been welcome, the broad channels through which we would have expected demand to adjust to a vote to leave the EU are now operating. As a result, GDP growth has slowed from average quarterly rates of 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 to 0.4% more recently. For those of you who, like me, have had to assess and categorise past UK slowdowns as either U- or V-shaped, I consider what we are witnessing as more of a saucer-shaped slowdown and pretty unusual for that (Slide 6). Given the long horizon over which the effects of Brexit could play out, we are likely to be on the flat part of the saucer for some time – as embodied in the MPC’s forecast for GDP growth which remains at 0.4% per quarter over the 3-year forecast horizon, conditional on households and companies basing their decisions on the expectation of a smooth adjustment to new trading arrangements. If realised, that will leave the economy about 2% smaller by 2020 than the May 2016 MPC forecast would have implied.
To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute more decisively to raising the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. The implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost euro area productivity and growth potential. This is particularly important in view of the overall limited implementation of the 2018 country-specific recommendations, as recently communicated by the European Commission. Regarding fiscal policies, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the operation of automatic stabilisers are providing support to economic activity. At the same time, countries where government debt is high need to continue rebuilding fiscal buffers. All countries should continue to increase efforts to achieve a more growth-friendly composition of public finances. Likewise, the transparent and consistent implementation of the European Union’s fiscal and economic governance framework over time and across countries remains essential to bolster the resilience of the euro area economy. Improving the functioning of Economic and Monetary Union remains a priority.

We are closely monitoring the impact of the recent interest rate reductions in the euro area on Switzerland. Should there be a need for action, the SNB will take the necessary measures. The export-weighted real external value of the Swiss franc remains well above its long-term average. Since the introduction of the minimum exchange rate, it has changed only slightly. Thus, the Swiss franc is still high. The slight inflation differential during the past quarters meant that the real adjustment of the Swiss franc against the euro has come to a virtual standstill. In this environment, the minimum exchange rate remains essential for guaranteeing appropriate monetary conditions. SNB monetary policy To conclude, I would like to mention a number of challenges which the SNB will be facing in the near future. Overall, the environment remains extremely challenging for both the Swiss economy and our monetary policy. With its high level of international integration, Switzerland is strongly affected by global developments, especially those in neighbouring countries. The ECB’s measures to support economic development in the euro area are also likely to have a favourable impact on the Swiss economy in the medium term. Nevertheless, given the low interest rates in Europe and the rest of the world as well as the strong Swiss franc, the SNB’s monetary policy environment will remain highly complex. We will continue to take all action necessary to fulfil our mandate of ensuring price stability, while taking due account of economic developments.