samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, while the available data limits deeper analysis of this issue, it seems reasonable to suspect that high college dropout rates contributed to loan repayment problems. As is well known, approximately 40 percent of college students drop out of college before finishing their degree. Among low-income students two-thirds don’t complete their degree, with rates also varying across institutions and majors. While the average wage returns to college remain high, for the substantial share of student loan borrowers who drop out of college, the net returns are likely to be small or negative. Returns are also likely to be small for those who attended a set of for-profit institutions. Enrollment at those institutions surged during the recession. While our data don’t allow us to investigate the returns for these groups of students, their especially low loan repayment rates (as reported elsewhere) are consistent with low post-college employment and earnings, suggesting that eventual returns to these educational investments may be low. The increase in defaults and decline in repayment may also reflect a change in the composition of college entrants during the recession, where even those with relatively low, or even negative returns to college, enrolled in order to qualify for grants and loans as a source of income. The individual and macroeconomic implications of growing student debt go well beyond the high default rates and may not have been sufficiently anticipated and understood.

All the users of this information should be aware that this information does not substitute or duplicate the official macroeconomic statistics. These qualitative indicators are compiled on the basis of opinions and expectations of the interviewed economic agents. I would like to be more concrete relate to this point. The Bank of Albania, having the awareness, independence and a certain degree of institutional transparency, and aiming at achieving high professionalism, plays an active and proactive role in the country’s economic development. Economic analysis is under direct function of the monetary policy decision-making process. In essence, the decision-making precedes the medium-term developments, sustaining the maintaining of price stability as the primary policy target drafted and implemented by the Bank of Albania. Profound analysis of the past, present and future developments of the economy contribute to appropriate decision-making. I assure you that building a complete “picture” of the present and the future of an economy is a rather difficult process, not only for an emerging economy, such as that of Albania, but also for the most advanced economies of the world. Economic and financial developments are accompanied by elements of insecurity, which have become, as you already know, dominant in last two years. Making decisions on the future of this already globalised world of economic links, requires professional maturity. Assessing and selecting appropriate and reliable statistical information requires profound intuitive abilities. Making the selected data bank beneficial to the decisionmaking, requires analytical foresight.
These would lead all euro-area countries to introduce at home reforms experimented in another economy of the area that meet the following three criteria: first, they are the subject of a multipartisan consensus; second, they have been implemented on the basis of an agreement between the social partners; third, they have actually helped create jobs. The Council does not doubt the fact that France, like all the economies of the euro area, could benefit greatly from the extension of such consensual and effective reforms. The competitiveness of the economy Last, as it has done in each of the previous years, the Monetary Policy Council emphasizes the importance of cost containment in the economy and the need to provide an environment that favours the competitiveness of businesses. In Europe, before the single currency, any poorly conducted national economic policy was swiftly and severely punished by depreciation of the currency on the foreign exchange markets and rises in market interest rates. With the creation of the single currency, these indicators have disappeared along with the swiftly applied sanctions associated with them. In the new euro area, any economic policy errors leading to lost competitiveness would result, more slowly and insidiously, in weaker growth and job creation. For this reason, even more so than in the past, unit production costs and more generally the quality of the competitive environment of businesses need to be very closely monitored.

Mr Trichet presents the Annual Report of the Bank of France Address by Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the Bank of France before the President of the French Republic, Senate and National Assembly on the occasion of the presentation of the Annual Report, in Paris on 21/5/99. I am honoured to present you with the report on the operations of the Banque de France, monetary policy and the prospects for it, as required by law. As is the custom, I also submit herewith the Monetary Policy Council’s comments on the events of the past year, which was marked by the choice of the European Union Member States authorized to participate in Monetary Union and by the creation on 1 June 1998 of the European System of Central Banks. The upturn in growth that started in 1997 accelerated in 1998. Annual average GDP growth stood at 3.2%, after 2.3% in 1997 and 1.6% in 1996. In 1998, the expansion was fuelled by vigorous domestic demand, particularly household consumption. Furthermore, total investment, which had stagnated in 1997, posted a dynamic increase in 1998. By contrast, foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP growth owing to the deterioration in the international environment. Although France was comparatively less severely hit by the spread of the emerging country crisis, the economy was affected by weaker demand from our main European trading partners. Thanks to faster growth, the French economy created 300,000 jobs in the non-farm market sector in 1998, compared with 196,000 in 1997.
The European League for Economic Cooperation has been, ever since its foundation in 1946, an independent network of business people who put their knowledge and influence together to deepen European integration. The League has stood out over the decades for a lot of significant reasons, including the very diverse nature of its membership and their interests, as well as a specific concern for independence in formulating their opinions. It is exactly this diversity and independence that prompts ELEC to ask the right questions and, in the answers it provides, to give priority to the common European interest. I salute the close cooperation between government officials in the region with high European officials, as well as, with the private sector and prestigious organizations such as ELEC. The Prime Minister of Romania, Mr. Dacian Ciolos, will have a brief address on this topic. Mr. Achim Irimescu, Minister for Agriculture and Rural Development will chair the round table on agriculture, together with his counterpart from the Republic of Moldova, Minister Eduard Grama and other renowned authorities who are ready to share their expertise on the factors that generate food insecurity in the extended Black Sea region in the context of the 21st century challenges. Mr. Vasile Iuga, Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers will chair the round table on energy security and together with prominent experts will focus on long term development of energy networks in Central and Eastern Europe. Ladies and Gentlemen, Now, a few words about the topic of this conference.

Regional cooperation in different fields like food and energy security – focal points of today’s conference – might be initiated at a high political level, but its implementation requires an active, broader and more informed participation of private sector and civil society, as the main vehicles of cross-border cooperation. The expansion of each one’s participation has a double effect; it allows for more informed regional policies and faster project implementation, on one hand, and it cultivates an understanding that regional cooperation has a direct impact on everyday life and individual citizens’ welfare on the other hand. The Romans used to say “mens sana in corpore sano”. The way I see it, it greatly matters what you fuel your body with. Greater food production for an increasing population goes hand in hand with ensuring access to affordable, safe and nutritious food. The way food nourishes our bodies, energy fuels the economy. So, energy needs to be secure, affordable and sustainable. I could go further and stress once again that for a healthy economy there is a substantial need for a healthy financial and banking systems. However, today’s conference will not generate either solutions or concrete answers to the multiple of issues the food and energy security rises, but it will most certainly cast a new light on possible ways to handle the challenges ahead of us.
The ratio of net public debt stock to national income declined to 64.5 percent end-2004 and the Treasury borrowed with a fiveyear maturity for the first time in the domestic market. Sustainability of debt will soon be taken off the agenda soon. In this framework, it will be possible for the risk premium and consequently real interest rates to go further down in the upcoming period, as public finance has been equipped with a sustainable structure  14  BIS Review 36/2005  with the continuation of tight fiscal policy and the launch of structural reforms in the areas of banking, taxes and social security. Graph 12: Budget Deficit, Primary Surplus and Domestic Debt Stock (% GNP) 80 70  Budget Deficit  Primary Surplus  60  Domestic Debt Stock  50 (%)  40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2004  2003  2002  2001  2000  1999  1998  1997  1996  1995  1994  1993  1992  1991  1990  1989  1988  -30  Source: Turkish Treasury. Now, I would like to underline a specific point related to the current tight fiscal policy. As I have mentioned earlier, tight fiscal policy played an important role not only in alleviating the public debt problem, but also in the improvement of expectations. The key factor regarding the tight fiscal policy in the said period was the target of a high primary surplus.

The current economic situation Before the war, the world economy was on a path of gradual recovery, following the most acute phase of the pandemic, although the recovery was already flagging from the second half of 2021 owing to global bottlenecks and the increase in inflationary pressures. The gradual path of recovery in activity prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was, in any case, highly uneven across geographical areas and sectors of activity. Thus, while some economies had already regained or even surpassed their pre-crisis levels of activity, others had not. Spain, despite having one of the highest levels of vaccination in the world, was among the latter. At the end of 2021, Spain’s output was still 3.8 percentage points (pp) below its pre-pandemic levels, while in the euro area as a whole this gap had already closed. One factor that would explain the difference in progress is the sectoral composition of activity. In particular, the recovery tends to be more delayed in those countries, like Spain, in which services that are highly dependent on personal interaction, such as those linked to tourism, account for a large share of the economy. Economic developments in Spain, and in the rest of the world, have been affected by upward inflation surprises since the second half of 2021, driven in particular by energy and food, although there has also been a slight rise in underlying inflation. Between December 2020 and March 2022, the annual increase in consumer prices rose from -0.6% to 9.8%.
Another issue that may be relevant here is the implication of a firm that has a balance sheet that looks like that of a bank but does not have direct access to the lender-of-last resort. Finally, and especially in light of the issues just raised, I think it is important for me to emphasize that the bank supervisors have expressed a clear willingness to listen to what the banking community has had to say on the issues involving electronic and Internet banking. Regulation E, promulgated by the Board of Governors, implements the Electronic Funds Transfer Act of 1978, and establishes primarily for consumer protection purposes the basic 7  See Royal Bank of Canada, et al., 83 Fed. Res. Bull. _____, (Order approved Dec. 2, 1996). Integrion also stated that it will not function as an Internet service provider, but will provide a secure electronic link to one. 9 See Notification to the Board of Governors Regarding Investment in Marketware International Inc. of Toronto Dominion Bank (Dec. 19, 1996). 10 See OCC Interp. Letter No. 742 (Aug. 19, 1996). 8  BIS Review 17/1997  -5-  rights, liabilities, and responsibilities of consumers who use, and financial institutions who offer, retail electronic funds transfer services.11 Among the protections provided are required disclosures, error resolution procedures, and loss protection.

Apart from oil, food prices are expected to remain elevated, even as the rate of increase moderates. 6. These external developments – higher oil prices, continued high prices of food, and inflationary pressures in our trading partners – have affected Singapore because of our openness and heavy dependence on imports. We are thus revising our CPI inflation forecast for this year to 6-7%, compared to the earlier estimate of 5-6%. Given the outcome in the first  BIS Review 94/2008  1  half of the year, the new forecast range implies that headline CPI inflation is expected to come down over the rest of the year. There are several reasons for this: •  First, the one-off impact of the GST hike will cease to affect headline inflation in July. •  Second, although global commodity prices are likely to remain high, any further price increases are expected to be milder, compared to the first half of the year. •  Third, there are early signs of an easing of domestic cost pressures as the economy slows and asset markets consolidate. The rate of increase in commercial rentals, for example, appears to have peaked. Recent employment surveys have also shown that employers have become more cautious about hiring, suggesting that the pressures on the labour market could ease. •  Fourth, MAS had pursued a policy of targeting an appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate $ since 2004.
I will explain why in this era of globalisation, it makes sense to strengthen the linkages between Southeast Asia and India, and how Singapore, a small and open country whose survival is totally dependent on globalisation, can play a role in deepening these linkages. ASEAN since the early 90’s For more than a decade until 1997, Southeast Asia enjoyed remarkable growth. As governments opened up economies, investments flowed in, exports grew, and prosperity was everywhere. People talked about the Asian Miracle and the Pacific Century. Then we met the darker face of globalisation. Euphoria turned to gloom when the Asian Financial Crisis struck. A seemingly minor problem in Thailand rapidly developed into a widespread panic in the region. One country after another succumbed as investors stampeded out, stock markets and currencies crashed, and economies nearly collapsed. In Indonesia, the Crisis triggered deep political and social changes, resulting in a very difficult transition. A new and very different dispensation is only now recrystallising. Even though the Crisis has passed, we have not returned to the status quo ante. The world has changed permanently. Globalisation has advanced even further, and competition is now fiercer. India and China are major new players which totally alter the landscape. From the point of view of other  BIS Review 3/2004  1  Asian countries, they are formidable competitors for investments, but also offer immense new opportunities.

Bangalore has transformed itself from a provincial capital into a world class centre for the global IT industry. Mumbai is a thriving commercial centre. MNCs are outsourcing backroom functions and call centres to India, attracted by India’s highly skilled, English speaking, and cost competitive professionals. In manufacturing, India is doing well in automobile, pharmaceuticals and chemicals. The recent BJP victory in state elections is widely seen as the Indian people reaffirming their support for reforms. The current thaw in relations with Pakistan is another positive sign. Worldwide, people are becoming persuaded that the momentum for economic liberalization that has built up is irreversible. A subcontinent is on the move. Nowhere is this more evident than in the self-confidence of Indian companies. As one consultant commented, 5-10 years ago his assignments in India were about how to withstand the competitive threat. But today the question is how to grow the companies beyond India. Therein lies an opportunity for India and Singapore to work together. Responding to globalisation Both India and ASEAN are opening up, reforming their economies, and pursuing the path of globalisation. The rapidly changing and highly competitive environment requires countries to make many changes in policies and strategies, and to cooperate more closely with others, especially in the region, for mutual benefit. Internal restructuring Singapore, being such a small and open economy, feels the need to remain competitive, adapt and upgrade most acutely. We are getting used to the fact that there is no more life-time employment or iron rice-bowl anywhere in the world.
The Walker Report recommends a set of guidelines for disclosure and transparency by private equity funds, including the publication of regular information on their financing, ownership and prospects. 4  BIS Review 31/2008  Sovereign wealth funds and global imbalances However, the emphasis on transparency and the politics of SWFs risks missing a bigger policy issue: the recent rapid growth in SWFs reflects large and persistent global imbalances which are a continuing threat to the stability of the world financial system and the global economy. Global imbalances and financial crises While there are many examples of countries which have run deficits for many years such as Australia and New Zealand, history also shows how painful the eventual adjustment can be. There are many examples in which capital flight has resulted in a huge fall in GDP growth and broader financial crises – for example in Latin America in the early 1980s, in the Nordic countries in the early 1990s and the east Asian economies a decade ago – which, in turn, weakened global GDP growth or global financial institutions. Countries with large deficits are vulnerable to a rapid reversal of capital flows. If investors are no longer willing to finance the deficit, domestic spending will need to be cut relative to output through a combination of reducing spending and switching production to the tradable sector. A recent IMF study reviewed 42 episodes of large reductions in current account deficits in developed countries over the past 40 years.

The second remark is that removing anticipations of state support/bailouts is a process that may take time and which must be handled with extreme care. The unexpected imposition of losses on some type of creditors to resolve problems in some banks can lead to shifts in expectations of public guarantee for other institutions, and create contagion and funding stress at other banks. The case of Cyprus was a perfect illustration of this. The difficulty is to guide the evolution in expectations over time, and avoid abrupt shifts that would increase financial instability and ultimately undermine the objective of the reforms. This ‘transition problem’ is in my view critical, and has been overlooked in many discussions. This conference is organized so as to facilitate exchanges with the audience. Therefore, I encourage you to be fully involved in the discussions and wish you fruitful debates. I now leave the floor to Augustin Landier from Toulouse School of Economics, one of the organizers of this conference with Regis Breton and Laurent Clerc from the Banque de France Financial stability directorate, who will chair the first session of the conference. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
From this point of view, I would like to highlight the strategic importance of the European Payments Initiative (EPI) project, which currently represents the only project for a joint solution rather than an interoperability of heterogeneous domestic solutions. We, at the Banque de France, therefore hope that the launch of the first EPI solutions, scheduled for 2023, will convince other banks to join this initiative which offers Europe a great opportunity to build an independent European payments market for the future. To conclude, in the face of the many short and medium-term risks and challenges, I would like to share with you, the members of the OCBF and more broadly with the stakeholders in our banking system, a message of confidence but also of great vigilance. The reforms conducted by the regulators and the efforts made by the banks over the past decade have borne fruit and the European banking system has demonstrated its great resilience during the health crisis and then in the face of the war in Ukraine. The banking sector has also managed to support government efforts to deal with the crisis and kick start recovery. But these developments should encourage us collectively to remain very vigilant in an environment marked by a rise in shocks and strong uncertainty and to pursue our efforts to bolster this resilience in order to successfully meet current and future challenges. 6

6 We urge all sterling lenders and issuers to consider following suit, making use of the guidance material now available or emerging from the sterling working group and other sources.7 For the more limited range of borrowers in cash markets who feel an operational imperative for a forward-looking term SONIA rate, it should in principle be possible to take daily ‘snapshots’ of the SONIA curve at periodic maturities. A number of potential providers have come forward to develop such functionality. 8 A third benefit of LIBOR transition lies in the opportunity it provides to modernise the technology and infrastructure supporting sterling markets. I have already mentioned the scope to bring the SONIA curve out of the shadows, deepening liquidity, increasing transparency and providing new term benchmarks. The emerging trading conventions for SONIA products will require new functionality in corporate debt management systems. In itself that is of course a cost. But that infrastructure upgrade provides a much-needed opportunity to rationalise aging architecture in both front and back office systems. Firms preparing to novate legacy LIBOR positions – one of the most challenging and sensitive parts of the transition programme – may choose to backload previously uncleared trades into clearing houses. That would allow them to take advantage of auction or trade compression mechanisms with providers working on developing innovative solutions specifically tailored to LIBOR transition.