samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The domestic economy is expected to slow down during the rest of year, being conditioned by the weakening of the domestic and foreign demand. Given the consolidated fiscal behaviour and the slowed foreign demand, the performance of the private domestic demand will determine the economic activity growth. However, its two components, consumption and investments, have not shown any recovery signal so far. Expected developments at home and abroad result in a contained balance of inflationary pressures, determining a slow increase in consumer price in the future. The demand growth  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  below the potential of the economy in the upcoming period will continue to exercise low inflationary pressures. At the same time, the pressures generated by supply-side factors appear contained. Based on the insofar developments of the determinant factors of inflation and the projections for their development in the future, with 90% probability, inflation will range within 1.0% – 3.3% band after 12 months. *** Based on the analyses of the information set out above, the Supervisory Council holds that pressures on consumer prices at home remain low over the monetary policy relevant horizon; they have been, however, on the downside over the recent months. On the demand side, below-potential economic growth will continue to generate low inflationary pressures, while shocks from the supply side are expected to be moderate. The expected developments in economy and inflation imply that the simulating nature of the monetary policy will be retained during the period ahead.

Massive amounts of capital, mostly in the form of external bank borrowings, flew into Emerging Asia during this period. In 1997, total amount of international bank lending to Asia amounted to $ Most of these external finance were denominated in US dollar and with rather short tenor. Of course we now understand this kind of external finance is very risky as it entails currency mismatch and maturity mismatch. But these risks were simply ignored or brushed aside while everybody was enjoying the Asian boom prior to 1997. Then the bubble burst and the crisis-hit Asian economies all learnt very important lessons in a bitter way by paying a heavy price. 4. Since the Asian Financial Crisis the Emerging Asia has implemented many structural reforms and has now re-emerged as stronger and more resilient economies. 5. As a result, Asia, once again, has gained centre stage and, until the last year or so, become the preferred destination of international capital flows. Unlike the 1990s, the structure of finance in Asia has changed because external bank borrowings, although still quite significant, have been overtaken by bond borrowings. Around 80% of bond issuance in the last three years in major Emerging Asian economies was denominated in domestic currency, thereby reducing currency mismatch risk for the borrowers. Moreover, the average tenor of the newly issued bonds has steadily been lengthened to 6.3 years in 2013, which would mitigate the risk of maturity mismatch and short term roll-over risk. 6.
In sum, the outlook for the Spanish economy is one of gradual recovery which will take some time to attain the dynamism proper to an expansionary phase with sufficient capacity to generate employment. The restoration of confidence, the positive effects of fiscal consolidation on agents’ expectations and the lessening of uncertainty in the labour market, further to the reform under way, will need to be the essential ingredients of any sustained recovery. The private sector must take up the baton from the public sector in support of activity, and net external demand should play a predominant role. The success of the fiscal consolidation programme is a centrepiece of this strategy. Correcting the budget deficit has become an unavoidable priority for Spanish economic policy. The budget outturn data currently available suggest the targets set for 2010 will be met, at least as far as central government conduct is concerned. On this basis, it is therefore vital to design a budget for 2011 that is fully consistent with meeting the budget deficit target of 6% of GDP for that year. To ensure no deviations arise, monitoring and surveillance procedures for the budget outturn must be reinforced and, should deviations be detected, corrective measures must be rapidly applied. The availability of contingency plans designed sufficiently in advance would contribute greatly to the success of these measures. The draft State Budget details appropriately the revenue- and spending-side measures that should allow compliance with the State target set.

In Spain’s case, the stress tests covered virtually its entire financial system and were conducted in great detail and with a high degree of transparency, providing extensive information on exposure to the principal asset classes. The results showed the system as a whole to be sound, whereby their publication undoubtedly contributed to dispelling the doubts over our financial system. The final piece in the far-reaching reform of the financial system has been the savings bank legislation approved by this House. In opening up savings banks to private capital, the legislation will not only allow savings banks to move ahead without having to request  2  BIS Review 129/2010  assistance from taxpayers, but it will also enable them to meet the demanding capital requirements set under the new international financial regulation known as Basel III. In the budgetary domain, the government reinforced and accelerated the implementation of the fiscal consolidation programme which, in compliance with Community commitments, it had announced in January. To this end, it approved a new raft of measures on 20 May entailing spending cuts of somewhat over € billion to be made between 2010 and 2011 (around 1.5% of GDP), on top of the previously approved spending cuts and tax rises. The new deficit target path was thus set at 9.3% of GDP in 2010, 6% in 2011, 4.4% in 2012 and 3% of GDP in 2013, which would steady the public debt ratio at a level slightly below 75% of GDP as from 2012.
To improve labour mobility within Europe, an EU-wide recruitment tool will be developed and measures taken to strengthen the portability of pension rights and the recognition of professional qualifications. This strategy confirms an important evolution in the thinking of European policymakers. They are acknowledging that the smooth operation of the single currency requires flexible markets for goods, services, and labour. They are aiming to maximise the gains of the world’s largest single market, rather than acting as 27 national markets. And they are exploiting EU funds as a tool to support aggregate EU growth, rather than for quid pro quos between Member States. Reaping the full gains from economic integration in Europe, combined with structural reforms at the national level, will help lay the foundations for more sustained growth going forward. 3. Future of EMU  Some observers, of course, question whether such a forward-looking perspective is relevant. This is due to the third criticism I outlined: the belief that economic and monetary union cannot work due to institutional flaws. In the view of these critics, the euro area is too decentralised, too diverse and too disunited to function as a single currency area. They conclude that its survival cannot be guaranteed. Clearly, there is an institutional gap in the euro area. In the aggregate, the euro area enjoys better fundamentals than the U.S. or Japan, and yet it is viewed as a much more risky place to invest.

Budget cuts will only lead to lower growth, higher unemployment and larger deficits. I see no contradiction between fiscal consolidation and sustainable growth. In fact, the one is a pre-condition for the other. I do not deny that there are negative demand effects in the short-term. But for the longer-term, sound fiscal policies are essential to lower borrowing costs and encourage investment. Moreover, in those countries experiencing severe sovereign debt tensions, fiscal consolidation is unavoidable to maintain market access. That said, there is clearly a need to take measures to strengthen the growth potential of the euro area’s economies. These measures also need to have effect in the short-term so as to soften the short-term impact of fiscal consolidation. Recognising this, the European Council on 28–29 June agreed on a “Compact for Growth and Jobs”. This Compact aims to free up to 120 billion euro for growth and investment, representing roughly 1% of euro area GDP. This comprises a 60 billion euro increase in the lending capacity of the European Investment Bank; 55 billion through the reallocation of structural funds to growth-enhancing measures; and 4.5 billion of investment financing through a “project bond” pilot phase. On top of that, the European Council took a number of measures to improve the functioning of the Single Market and facilitate adjustment within monetary union. The single market in services will be completed, which is expected to yield economic gains of up to 330 billion euro.
In the baseline scenario of the Eurosystem June staff projections, output declines by a staggering 13% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. As lockdown measures are being eased across euro area countries, a cautious recovery in activity is currently taking place. But adverse effects on household income and production can be expected to persist for a considerable period of time. Such protracted effects are clearly visible in the most recent Eurosystem staff projections. Given the current exceptional degree of uncertainty, these projections were organised around three scenarios that differ with respect to the severity of the economic fallout from the pandemic in the euro area (see left chart on Slide 2). All scenarios assume that the substantial support from monetary, fiscal and labour market policies is sufficient to avert adverse financial amplification channels. While the severity of the contraction differs substantially across scenarios, none of the three trajectories is in line with a full recovery of real GDP by the end of 2022 to the levels projected by staff in March. In the severe scenario, our staff projections suggest that the level of real GDP at the end of 2022 could remain 9.6% below the March 2020 staff projection path. In effect, both the nature of the shock and the length of the ensuing downturn make it likely that the economy will experience important structural shifts. Disentangling the effects of these shifts on demand and supply, and hence on medium-term inflation, is inherently difficult.

5 See ECB (2020), “ECB announces € billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)”, 18  March. 6 See Schnabel, I. (2020), “How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment”, speech  at the Barclays International Monetary Policy Forum. 7/7  BIS central bankers' speeches
Fiscal policy is the framework that is implemented by the government in order to influence economic activities via the allocation of resources towards achieving the overall goals of stability and growth. This policy framework is mainly implemented through the Ministry of Finance (MoF) in Sri Lanka, with the traditional policy tools used for this purpose being taxation, government expenditure & borrowing, and debt management. In the meantime, it would also be noted that the financing of the budget and debt management has monetary implications, while the composition of debt instruments, the timing of debt issues and their maturities, has a close relationship with both fiscal and monetary implications. We need to understand that Fiscal policy is broader than taxation. Therefore, perhaps the next post-budget seminar of the Institute should attempt to convey this position so that the popular misconception amongst many Chartered Accountants that “fiscal policy is only about taxation” is removed, thereby encouraging Accountants to focus on fundamental fiscal philosophies and implementation methods at their important pre and post-budget seminars. Needless to say, a greater appreciation of the entirety of the fiscal policies would enable Chartered Accountants to pay more attention to the wide range of subjects encompassing fiscal policy, so that the Accountants’ knowledge and ideas in this field could be regularly harnessed for the benefit of the country at large.

Today, in the aftermath of global financial crisis, the key focus of central banks is both the successful conduct of monetary policy and macroprudential policy, in order to reinforce each other to stabilize economies. In Sri Lanka too, monetary policy formulation, operational framework and strategies adopted, have all evolved in line with the changing structure of the economy, developments in the financial markets, and the availability of data and communication strategies. I do not intend to discuss  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  these changes in detail here, but would like to highlight that a greater coordination of monetary and fiscal policies would become even more crucial in the implementation of monetary policy and achieving macroeconomic stability, in the future than in the past. Another position that should be clear to us is that the need for harmonization between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, is not a virtue that has been suggested recently, but a vital ingredient that had been provided for, since the establishment of the Central Bank, in order to ensure the sound economic management of the country. The recent evolution of our economy Armed with that background, I would now like to proceed to share with you, some instances of harmonization that has taken place in the recent past in our country. However, before I do that, I think it is necessary to first touch upon the recent evolution of our economy in order to set the stage for what would follow.
If the financial infrastructure does not function, payments and securities transactions cannot be made, which would bring the economy more or less to a halt. It would also prevent the Riksbank’s interest rate from exerting an impact on the economy. This means that the financial infrastructure and the ongoing changes in securities markets are relevant for the Riksbank’s two primary functions, namely to safeguard both financial stability and price stability. It is therefore important that we closely follow developments in these respects. Increased integration As many of you are already aware, major changes are currently in progress in the securities markets and the financial infrastructure. In recent years we have seen a number of tendencies whereby trading in financial instruments is becoming more integrated. Such tendencies have also been evident recently in clearing and settlement – the processing of securities transactions that follows the trade as such. 1 In a world conditioned by further globalisation, increased competition and advances in technology, companies use mergers and acquisitions to adjust. In the field of financial instruments, the creation of NASDAQ OMX Group in February 2008 has strengthened the links between Nordic, Baltic and American exchanges. The driving force behind this merger is primarily economic in that it confers considerable economies of scale. 1  Clearing involves balancing mutual claims and liabilities. Settlement involves the transfer of money and securities between transacting parties. BIS Review 153/2008  1  The changes in securities markets are also connected with regulations.

François Villeroy de Galhau: France – economic developments and reforms, where are we heading? Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at The Economic Club of New York, New York City, 18 April 2018. * * * Accompanying slides of this speech. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am very pleased and honoured to give this speech to the Economic Club of New York. The theme of my speech is “economic developments and reforms in France”. One year ago, you would probably not have suggested it. This shift tells something: France is currently going through exciting times and deserves a close scrutiny. [slide 1]. Before addressing the subtitle of my speech “where are we heading?” I would like to ask “Where are we starting from?” As about everywhere among the advanced economies, France experienced a decline in its potential growth from 2% in the 1990s to about 1.3% currently. Potential growth could be higher, as in several other advanced countries. An increase would indeed be necessary to face the headwinds of high public debt, ageing and environmental transition, while safeguarding the European social model. If funded, this European social model is a long term economic asset, while bringing more education and more cohesion [slide 2]. There are two other more specific challenges for France. The first one is a persistently high unemployment, which never fell below 7% since 1983. The second one is high public expenditures, the highest among EU countries in 2016 (as a share of GDP).
The response to Brexit should be the economic and financial strengthening of the euro area: if we remained mired in technical nit-picking with self-satisfaction from some, disparagement from others, and distrust on all sides, we would not only have missed an opportunity, we would, collectively, have failed in our duty. ** I would like to conclude on that note. The unity demonstrated by the EU27 in their Brexit position, behind their negotiator, Michel Barnier, who has done a remarkable job, has been impressive. And everyone now better appreciates – at least in the sense of what they would miss – all the advantages offered by our Europe and our common market. This political desire to “protect” must now unfold into an ambition to “construct”, to build a more effective Europe. Thank you for your attention. 1 European Central Bank press conference, 25 October 2018. 2 Four-quarter cumulative flows. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

For a start, regulation goes hand in hand with supervision. We will continue to ask searching questions about the quality of a firm’s assets, the rigour of its risk management, the experience on its board, the plausibility of its resolution plan and so on. That is the bread and butter of our role. Meanwhile, the reforms will be treated to revisionist history and the calls of counter-revolution. Now, reasonable people can disagree about the right balance of financial regulation in order to achieve our goals. The most celebrated example of this is how to trade off the cost of higher bank lending rates, which dampens investment in the economy, versus the benefit of reducing the probability or severity of future financial crises. Unless some other breed of revolutionary brings an end to capitalism itself, then I think that debate will go on for a long time after we are all dead. But in my view, the post-crisis reform package – taken as a whole – strikes the right balance between the competing interests present within our mixed economy system. Brexit does not affect this judgement. The UK financial system must be robustly regulated and supervised whatever the outcome of the government’s negotiations with the European Union. As my colleagues on the Financial Policy Committee and I put it last month: “the FPC will remain committed to the implementation of robust prudential standards in the UK financial system.
First, money is needed to place even a riskless bet. That was the scarcest of commodities after the failure of Lehman Brothers in October 2008. Second, placing a bet also requires a trustworthy bookmaker. They too were thin on the ground in the midst of crisis. In their absence, arbitrage may be more “apparent” than real. Market prices are likely to deviate from fundamentals due to liquidity and counterparty premia. By way of illustration, Chart 5 provides a decomposition of the yield on sub-investment grade corporate securities in the UK. By mid-2007 at the peak of the boom, the liquidity premium on these assets had pretty much been eliminated. By the end of 2008, this liquidity premium had risen by almost 2500 basis points. As capital markets moved from flood to drought, market prices turned from rich to poor. Fair value and financial stability Against this backdrop, what are the potential financial stability implications of using market prices as a valuation yardstick? In roughly chronological order, three main arguments have been used in defence of marking to market. Broadly, these mirror the three historic phases of fair value:   “Protecting shareholders”  During the 19th and early 20th centuries, as joint stock companies sprang up, the key purpose of company accounts was to protect shareholders’ interests. Like truth in the face of the war, in the face of crisis the financial accounts appear to have been the first casualty.

Governor Veerathai’s Statement Your Excellency, Fellow Governors, Ladies and Gentlemen, Members of the press,  A very good afternoon to you all,  It is my great pleasure to welcome our distinguished guests to this special event before the year ends. Let me extend a very warm welcome to Governor Agus and Governor Muhammad Ibrahim who have both travelled to Bangkok specifically for this occasion. The year of 2016, which is coming to the end soon will be remembered by economists and financial professionals as a year of the unexpected, beginning from China's circuit breaker in the very first week of the year, to negative policy rates, to Brexit and the US elections. Greater uncertainties now hang over the global economy. Fortunately, our ASEAN region, with its high potential, is a bright spot in the world. This is therefore 1  time for us to navigate today’s uncertainties through our concerted efforts to bring out the potentials of our ASEAN region. What we are witnessing here today is a renewal of the spirit of regional integration by relying more on collaboration to serve as a key driver for sustainable growth to benefit all of us. The MoUs that we are about to sign will provide flexibilities on foreign exchange regulations for the settlement of trade and investment in local currencies, resulting in greater efficiency and convenience for businesses. Another key merit of this framework is that businesses will be able to better manage exchange rate risks.