samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The second quality I have in mind refers specifically to the model’s role in forecasting and policy analysis. A model must have a good track record, in order to serve as a reliable guide to the policymaker. I am not asking for spot-on point forecasts or estimates but, at a minimum, a macro model must be able to provide policymakers with a good feel for the directional effects of various policy options. Thirdly, the workings of the model must be transparent. Ideally, the structure of the model should correspond to a flowchart of the linkages within the economy. Fed Governor Laurence Meyer has said in a recent speech3 that model-based forecasting needs to “start with a paradigm and end with a story”. 2 3  Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. To the Stern Graduate School of Business, New York University: “Start with a Paradigm, End with a Story: The Value of Model-Based Forecasting and Policy Analysis”. BIS Review 9/2000  2  Ultimately, when policymakers want to introduce policy changes, they want to know through what channels the effect of this policy will flow and how agents will react to this policy. In other words, policymakers want to know the story going on behind each policy reaction and not just be buried under masses of model output. Fourth, macro modelling should adopt a pluralistic approach. Policymakers are like consumers while macro modellers are the producers. As the well-known econometrician Clive Granger4 said, “it is worth remembering that consumers usually prefer having a choice.

Without wishing to preempt what you shall be taught, I wish to only explain that good corporate governance is one of our strategic objectives and its inclusion as a strategic objective reflects our commitment to align our operations with world best practices, consistent with our vision ‘to be a world class central bank’. The module on Risk Management was included to provide you with knowledge that will enable you appreciate why the Bank has introduced the Risk Management Department. Director - Risk Management will do a presentation during which he will explain what risk management is all about and its relevance to Bank of Zambia. Finally, the inclusion of a module on the Core Functions of the Bank of Zambia is designed to provide you with knowledge on the operations for which the Bank was established. This is important for a number of reasons. First, we want to have a cadre of enlightened and well informed managers who will portray a positive image of the Bank and reflect our standing as a world-class Bank. As managers, you have to have a reasonable understanding of how the Bank’s core activities departments operate and are organised. Second, as managers, especially as “world-class” employees, you are also expected, by the public, to  BIS Review 125/2006  1  have a reasonable grasp of issues pertaining to core operations of the Bank.
13 See: https://www.ngfs.net/en/communique‐de‐presse/ngfs‐and‐inspire‐launch‐joint‐research‐project‐ biodiversity‐and‐financial‐stability  4  that are less exposed to environmental risks and mobilising the financial sector. “No action” is not an option. They also have to take into account the impact that these structural changes will have on price stability. Energy and food prices, for example, can be heavily impacted by climate change and biodiversity loss, both inland and in coastal regions. Should we choose a holistic or a sequential approach? Some challenge the order of priorities, by arguing that climate change is already complex enough. They do not want to include biodiversity or health issues, as they fear that this will be seen as mission creep or that it would overload their staff. These serious concerns are understandable. Nevertheless, as we just stressed, connections exist between climate change/loss of biodiversity and health, which can encourage synergies. Furthermore, the pandemic has created a sense of urgency on health‐related risks.

Some technologies may not materialise quickly enough to prevent uncontrollable and irreversible environmental changes from happening, and solutions that do not rely strictly on technology may also be needed. Focusing only on the climate challenge, for instance, reducing energy demand is critical to achieving ambitious mitigation. Therefore, even though technological innovation is crucial given the magnitude of the task upon us, we will also need to learn frugality (for instance by limiting superfluous or conspicuous consumption), as Pope Francis' Encyclical recommand us for example, or – if you prefer – a form of self‐restraint, as emphasised by Professor Dasgupta in his review on the Economics of Biodiversity. Moreover, while technological innovations will still be crucial to decrease our use of energy and resources, they may not always lead to more production and growth. Widespread use of electric bikes for urban transportation, for example, could reduce our dependency on individual cars in urban areas, but by the same token it could also dampen growth prospects in the automobile sector. Likewise, technology makes it possible to organise various meetings online rather than have participants travel thousands of kilometres, but a diffusion of such norms could also translate into less growth. My point here is not be exhaustive, but rather to show that framing the debate in simplistic ways (e.g.
The second factor driving market volatility stems from the plunge in prices of oil and commodities. Depressed prices put pressures on commodity-exporting countries and related industries. For oil producers, the prolonged low prices would also result in losses in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  revenue and profitability, and increase risks of default on their debt payments. These could trigger another rout of credit events and liquidity tightening in financial markets. The third factor is the monetary policy divergence between the US and other major advanced economies. While the US Federal Reserve is poised to gradually tighten its policy stance, the Bank of Japan recently joined the club of many European central banks to adopt a negative interest rate policy, and is likely to ease the policy even further. Amid the fragile global recovery, the divergence in the monetary policy stance as well as in the recovery paths among the major economies cause a great deal of global uncertainty, and prompt capital flows to be overly sensitive to news and even slight changes in market expectations. In this highly interconnected world, these global risks surely have widespread spillovers to all countries not least emerging markets, Thailand included. But, the impact on the Thai financial markets, as you might have seen, has so far been relatively limited, compared to other emerging markets, thanks to Thailand’s strong external position which serves as a great buffer against global volatility.

Luis M Linde: Economic recovery in Spain Opening remarks by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the XXII Meeting of the Financial Sector, organised by ABC, Deloitte and Sociedad de Tasación, Madrid, 8 April 2015. *  *  *  Let me first thank Bieito Rubido, the Editor of ABC, Yolanda Gómez, the Deputy Editor, Fernando Ruiz, the Chairman of Deloitte and Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, the General Manager of Sociedad de Tasación, for their invitation to the opening of this Encuentro del Sector Financiero forum. In my address I shall briefly set out the situation of and outlook for the Spanish economy in the European setting; I shall review monetary policy developments in the euro area; and I shall conclude with some thoughts on the connection between political tensions and the functioning of the Monetary Union which, today, as a legacy of the crisis dating back to 2007, are evident and significant. The Spanish economy I shall begin with the situation of the Spanish economy. Recent figures confirm the momentum and strength of our economic recovery, against a background in which the correction of the macroeconomic imbalances and the improvement in the external environment continue. The policies deployed at home and in Europe are underpinning this sound performance.
Andrew Haldane: The contribution of the financial sector – miracle or mirage? Speech by Mr Andrew Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, of the Bank of England, at the Future of Finance conference, London, 14 July 2010. This text is taken from a co-authored chapter by Andrew Haldane, Simon Brennan and Vasileios Madouros in “The Future of Finance: The LSE Report” published today by The London School of Economics. *  *  *  We would like to thank Stephen Burgess, Melissa Davey, Rob Elder, Perry Francis, Jen Han, Sam Knott, Nick Oulton, Peter Richardson, Jeremy Rowe, Chris Shadforth, Sally Srinivasan and Iain de Weymarn for comments and discussion on earlier drafts, and Alexander Haywood and Laura Wightman for research assistance. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank of England. 1. Introduction  The financial crisis of the past three years has, on any measure, been extremely costly. As in past financial crises, public sector debt seems set to double relative to national income in a number of countries (Reinhart and Rogoff (2009)). And measures of foregone output, now and in the future, put the net present value cost of the crisis at anywhere between one and five times annual world GDP (Haldane (2010)). Either way, the scars from the current crisis seem likely to be felt for a generation. It is against this backdrop that an intense debate is underway internationally about reform of finance (Goodhart (2010)).

The economic policy response in this second phase of the crisis Naturally, the economic policy response to this crisis should adapt to how the pandemic unfolds healthwise. At this second phase of the crisis, with the characteristics I mentioned, the economic policy response must combine two objectives: to support the recovery - which advises avoiding a premature withdrawal of the support measures that would raise the risk of economic growth undergoing more lasting damage - and to smooth the adjustment of the economy to the post-pandemic scenario. 3  The importance of European support To achieve these objectives, the economic policy response in this second phase of the crisis should have the firmly resolute backing of the European Union (EU). Indeed, given the enormous economic and financial interactions across the area’s various economies, joint action is the most effective means of ensuring that the economic effects of the pandemic will be overcome in a shorter time and at a lower cost to each and every country. This is particularly important in the current situation, where we face a global crisis, but which is exerting asymmetrical economic effects on the different countries. European action is particularly important so as to avoid an uneven exit from the crisis that bears down on overall economic growth for a longer period. These arguments, beyond those relating to necessary European solidarity, highlight the importance of the agreement reached by the European Council last Tuesday with the approval of the European recovery fund.
Interest rate expectations for the next few years largely depend on the economic outlook and market expectations concerning monetary policy. In the long term, up to ten years, market participants are unlikely to have any particular expectations concerning cyclical fluctuations. The forward rate may then be interpreted as the sum of the expected real interest rate and expected inflation when the economy is in balance. Without limitations on capital movements, the real interest rate must be expected to develop approximately the same across countries over time. If there are no systematic differences in the risk premium between countries, differences in forward rates may be interpreted as differences in inflation expectations between countries. In the euro area, the inflation target is below, but close to 2 per cent. This results in an inflation differential of ½ - 1 percentage point against Norway. An investor must therefore have an interest rate in Norway that is ½ - 1 percentage point higher than in Germany in order to achieve the same expected real return in the two countries. Following the introduction of the inflation target, the difference between German and Norwegian forward rates was about 1 percentage point for a long time. So far in 2003, this differential has been somewhat lower. This interest rate differential indicates that the market is confident that we will achieve the inflation target. This line of reasoning can also be reversed. Given stable inflation expectations of 2½ per cent, i.e.

Income from employment normally varies in the course of a lifetime. Earnings are low when we are young, rising in our middle years, before falling again as we reach retirement age. Many people raise loans in early adulthood, repay their loan and build up positive net wealth as they reach middle age, then draw on their savings towards the end of their lives. This results in consumption that is more evenly spread over a lifetime than implied by the flow of annual income. A company’s investment choices also involve the choice between present and future consumption. Owners may give priority to present consumption by taking out dividends, or they can invest profits in the company and thereby lay the basis for larger profits later. By placing capital at the disposal of others, in other words by saving, one’s own consumption is postponed. People require compensation for this, both because human beings are impatient and because there is a certain probability we may not live to see the future. The interest rate provides this compensation. If we want to use our money for consumption now or to finance investments by raising loans, the interest rate is the price we must pay in order to do so. The interest rate is therefore a key variable in our choice between consumption now or in the future. Interest rates are the terms at which money or goods today may be traded off for money or goods at a future date. The interest rate is also the price of money.
To assist supervisors in developing and applying more consistent standards, the Committee created the Accord Implementation Group, or “AIG”, precisely to share experiences and encourage shared approaches. This group, which is chaired by Nick Le Pan, the Canadian Superintendent of Financial Institutions, has already been long at work and provides a forum for supervisors to compare notes on practical matters. As a result, we expect that supervisors will apply the New Accord more consistently at home, thereby promoting a more level playing field across countries as well. Based on the AIG’s work to date, the Committee published a paper this past August on the “high level principles for the cross-border implementation of the New Accord”. In this paper, we reiterate our view that the traditional allocation of responsibilities to home and host supervisors will continue. Cooperation will be critical to the effective supervision of institutions under the New Accord, especially considering the challenges an internationally active bank will face in receiving the initial approval to adopt, and then validate, advanced approaches to credit and operational risk at home and in host jurisdictions. Similarly, supervisors will need to find practical ways to cooperate in the evaluations of capital adequacy under pillar 2 and ongoing reviews of compliance with the minimum operational requirements of the New Accord. At the same time, Pillar 3 - market discipline - draws on the power of markets to help ensure that banks do not hold unrealistically low amounts of capital for operational risk.

Pre-determined trigger events do not only have to be weather–related risks 5. Travel, power outage, cyber threat and business interruption risks caused by supply chains may also benefit from pre-determined payouts. There are thus ample opportunities for the industry to test or pilot such innovative offerings. On our end, the Bank is committed to provide a more enabling environment for the industry to explore, test and introduce innovations. For areas that may require regulatory flexibility, we plan to enhance the Regulatory Sandbox with pathways to accelerate time-to-live testing by simplifying the gatekeeping process for institutions with strong risk management capabilities. We expect to announce more details on this later in the year and hope to see greater participation by the industry to offer innovative protection solutions through the enhanced Regulatory Sandbox. Expanding the horizons for the future of insurance – augmenting protection with prevention Lastly, it is also imperative to augment the future of insurance to include risk prevention. Insurers and takaful operators have always played this role. For years, the industry has provided consumers with loss prevention advice for commercial lines. Ways and demands on risk prevention, however, are evolving. We expect to see a collective shift in the role of the industry from loss reimbursement to loss control and prevention in the upcoming years.
The task, for Hong Kong as for all jurisdictions, will be to translate high-level principles and universal standards into local practice, and to develop the skills to carry them out. This is an enormous challenge, but there are reasons for confidence in Hong Kong's case. We have had a largely positive experience in introducing Basel II into our supervisory system, thanks in no small part to the hard work of both HKAB and HKIB. Regulatory reform is driven not just by objective circumstances but also by changing public expectations. This brings me to my third observation: that banks and financial institutions (and, it might be added, regulators) are now operating in a more sceptical, more demanding, even hostile environment. We see this around the world, and, particularly in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse, we have seen it in Hong Kong. There is also discontent and anxiety locally that pre-dates the crisis – for example, about access to banking services, about the risks of new technology – that result partly from the changing business landscape and partly from changing expectations. We must expect this trend to continue, and it will be necessary for the banking industry and the regulator to take more and more account of wider public opinion, and to tackle areas of concern.

No doubt the details will take some time to work out. We might be tempted in Hong Kong to respond that we have demonstrated clearly this last year that we already have the ability to maintain banking stability. The measures being contemplated internationally are designed for repairing and renovating banking systems that have effectively collapsed: some of the measures may indeed be going too far. Therefore, we might conclude that we do not need to consider them for Hong Kong. Such an attitude would, I think, be a mistake. As an international financial centre, Hong Kong must adopt international standards and best practices. We have to move with the times, although that does not of course mean we have to blindly implement everything in an inflexible, straightjacket manner. Hong Kong is, in fact, in a good position to adopt and participate in the various measures now under consideration by the G20, the Financial Stability Board and its Standing Committees, and other international agencies. Our voice may not be so loud or strong as that of the larger economies, but we still have a responsibility to speak up, to seek to ensure that what comes out of the international forums is balanced, and realistic for local and regional conditions. The increasing participation by Asian economies, including Hong Kong, in these international forums is a good sign that the rest of the world is paying attention to, and ready to learn from, the experiences of this region.
These are all very positive developments and you will be joining a vibrant community of financial institutions here in Singapore. Japan and the region’s recovery and growth Daiwa’s increased focus in South Asia attests to the dynamism of the region. Not only has the region shown resilience, it is now powering ahead. Led by ASEAN economies such as Vietnam, which is surging ahead strongly, India, Pakistan and the Middle East too are beckoning out to investors with their growth prospects. Trade and investments within the Asian region, and between Asia and the Middle East continues to grow. Notably, Japanese foreign direct investments into ASEAN has been increasing steadily again since 2003. In fact, it has reached more than $ billion1 which even outpaced that into China in 2006. The Japanese economy too, continues to impress. Economic conditions in Japan have improved remarkably and the data released suggests a continued and sustained growth. Japanese corporates are raking in record profits and capital investments too are surging ahead. They have once again begun to spread their wings overseas. Supporting these corporates, financial institutions like Daiwa too have benefited from this increased business activities. 1  Sources: Prepared by JETRO from Ministry of Finance Balance of Payments Statistics and Bank of Japan foreign exchange rates. BIS Review 72/2007  1  Partner to growth Where does Singapore fit into this climate of abundant growth opportunities? Located right at the confluence of trade links and business opportunities, Singapore has become a valuable partner to corporates and financial institutions like Daiwa.

And third, sharp and abrupt changes in exchange rates of late. Academic economists like to put labels on economic periods. And I have referred to some of these labels earlier in my speech: the “Great Depression” of the 1920s, the “Great Inflation” era of the 1970s and early 1980s, and the “Great Moderation” we have witnessed since then. It is my hope that the increased uncertainty we are facing is conjunctural and does not become structural, and that we are not entering an era which, later on, academic economists could label as the "Great Uncertainty”. I believe that central banks are both willing and able to prevent this from happening. Therefore, at this juncture it is particularly important that the Eurosystem remains focused on its fundamental mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term. The Governing Council of the ECB has indicated in this respect that it is fully committed to acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure that any risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise and that medium to longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area remain solidly anchored at levels consistent with price stability. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting sustained economic growth, well-functioning markets and job creation in the euro area. This is true now more than ever, when we are confronted with a panorama which is more uncertain than that which we have faced during recent years. Thank you for your attention.