samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES Annual address by Governor Øystein Olsen to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank  THURSDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2022  Economic perspectives 2022  NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 17 FEBRUARY 2022  INTRODUCTION Today, nearly to the day, a hundred years have passed since the first annual address was delivered. The governor at that time, Nicolai Rygg, painted a gloomy picture. The speculative boom in Norway during the First World War had created a bubble that burst. A wave of losses ensued. The economy was marred by stagnation and bankruptcies. The problems in the business sector spread to the banks.1 If banks had failed, the problems facing businesses would have intensified. It was therefore crucial to make sure the banking system weathered the crisis. There was no disagreement about that. The main issue under heated debate was who should bear the losses and who should guarantee new capital. Not many weeks after the first annual address, Norges Bank had to step in to rescue one of the big banks. When the next big bank encountered problems, Norges Bank was again called upon to intervene. But Nicolai Rygg now put his foot down. The loans provided should be guaranteed by the State and not by Norges Bank. Not only did Nicolai Rygg have to deal with a banking crisis, but also an erosion in the value of the Norwegian krone due to periods of excessive money supply.

In that regard, the recent announcement by the European Central Bank of its determination to conduct unlimited intervention in the sovereign secondary markets, provided effective conditionality is fulfilled, constitutes a significant step towards the normalisation of market conditions in the euro area. Yet, the return to a smoothly operating monetary union cannot be completely achieved by simply relying on ad-hoc reactions by policy-makers. Institutional arrangements must be reviewed in order to restore adequate incentives for domestic authorities to prevent the reemergence of destabilising imbalances and to ensure that any residual risks arising in specific jurisdictions that could affect the area as a whole would be addressed by integrated mechanisms operating at the euro area level. The recent changes introduced in the European Union to strengthen the requirements and the mechanism for the surveillance of domestic fiscal policies and structural reforms, together with the creation of the EFSF and the ESM – which we now know will be soon be launched – are good examples of the required institutional reforms. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  At the same time, a specific source of risks for the smooth functioning of monetary union that needs to be addressed directly is the financial instability experienced in specific jurisdictions.
A few examples of structural factors include a demographic shift from working-age to older population, which swells up the volume of pension funds that need to fulfill their obligation to retirees; the rise of sovereign wealth funds in the era of high international reserves under rigid exchange rate arrangements; technological innovation and the decline in telecommunication, transport and other financial transaction costs from credit risk transfer mechanisms; and, capital account liberalization that have over the years eliminated a significant degree of cross-border financial friction. At the same time, the liquidity glut is also due in no small part to accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies, whether one looks from the angle of low interest rates or high money growth. BIS Review 98/2008  5  the foreign exchange market. Both of these actions are accommodative from a monetary policy sense and tend to sow the seeds for inflation down the road. And in the case where capital inflows are persistent, the flows may even induce authorities to make use of prudential measures, which can range from credit policy to capital account restriction on short-term inflows. The core issue facing emerging market central banks in the short run, therefore, is how best to contain financial vulnerabilities that accompany the volatility of short-term capital. On this issue, when the challenge is on the side of managing capital inflows, there are three key decisions that emerging market policymakers must face in the short term.

Pembangunan pengguna yang lebih berpengetahuan juga akan memberi cabaran kepada institusi kewangan untuk mempercepatkan proses inovasi dan mempelbagaikan produk, perkhidmatan dan saluran penghantaran yang ditawarkan. Ini akan merangsang pembangunan sektor kewangan yang kukuh dan progresif, yang selanjutnya akan menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi negara yang mapan. Dengan lafaz Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, saya dengan sukacitanya merasmikan pembukaan Biro Pengantaraan Kewangan di Malaysia. Terima kasih. 4  BIS Review 4/2005
Chart: Mainland GDP  1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  In Norway, growth in the mainland economy picked up through 2017 and the economic outlook improved. Low interest rates, improved competitiveness and an expansionary fiscal stance contributed to the upturn, while oil investment declined at a slower pace after falling sharply for several years. Although the activity level in the Norwegian economy was still somewhat below a normal level, the economy was emerging from the downturn that followed in the wake of the fall in oil prices in 2014. Employment was rising and unemployment was falling. The improvement in the labour market was reflected in a moderate increase in wage growth, which in the preceding years had been restrained by the decline in oil prices, lower capacity utilisation and lower underlying productivity growth. Chart: Consumer prices The depreciation of the krone following the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014 and 2015 gradually fed through to prices and resulted in higher inflation. As this effect faded and the krone appreciated, inflation fell back. Both low imported inflation and weak cost growth in the Norwegian economy contributed to low inflation in 2017. Underlying inflation remains below target, but prospects for higher levels of activity and slightly higher wage growth indicate that inflation will rise in the period ahead. Chart: Debt ratio and interest burden Elevated house price inflation and high debt growth have increased household sector vulnerabilities. After rising faster than household income for several years, house prices began to fall in April 2017.

A key area for cooperation that is being advanced relates to the provision of a robust liquidity management infrastructure for Islamic finance. This is an important imperative to ensure the resilience and stability of the Islamic financial system, as well as to reduce the cost of intermediation. A significant regulatory challenge remains in terms of having efficient crossborder liquidity risk management in the Islamic financial system, due to the lack of short-term Shariah compliant instruments in international currencies. A chapter in the book describes the regulatory response to the issue of liquidity risk facing Islamic financial institutions, including the important role of the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM) in facilitating cross-border liquidity management. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  With these changes set to re-define the financial landscape going forward with far reaching implications, the publication of this book is both timely and relevant. Six years from its first edition in 2007 which made an important contribution to the literature on the regulation of Islamic finance, this second edition captures the diverse range of current information and updates arising from the regulatory issues in a post-crisis global economy. Reviews on the various characteristics of risks faced by Islamic financial institutions will improve the understanding and examination of the implications of current and new reform initiatives for the regulation and supervision of Islamic finance.
The latest estimates point to a significant increase in public expenditure on pensions, healthcare and long-term care deriving from the surge in the dependency ratio, which even in the most optimistic demographic projections is set to rise from 25% at present to over 50% by 2050. In the case of the pensions system, the 2011 and 2013 reforms included some adjustments that managed to significantly offset the effect of the expected increase in the dependency ratio in the long term. However, the 2018 Budget and the Budget for 2019 being discussed here today, mark an easing of the entry into force of those mechanisms, as they delay the application of the sustainability factor until 2023 and, in particular, they entail a return to the system of annual revaluation of pensions in accordance with the CPI. According to Banco de España calculations, the permanent reinstatement of this indexation system would entail an additional increase in expenditure of more than 3 pp of GDP in 2050. In consequence, in order to ensure the financial sustainability of the public pensions system, additional measures will be required on the revenue or the expenditure side, or on both sides, to offset that extra burden.

In view of the medium-term challenges posed by the high debt-to-GDP ratio and the impact of population ageing on public expenditure, the process of redressing fiscal imbalances must be compatible with an increase in the quality of public finances. In this respect, the composition of the income/expenditure adjustment in the necessary mediumterm programme is of utmost importance in order to achieve the objectives set without BANCO DE ESPAÑA  14	 TESTIMONY BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA BEFORE PARLIAMENT IN RELATION TO THE DRAFT STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY BUDGET FOR 2019  THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES  CHART 14  TAX STRUCTURE IN SPAIN  GENERAL GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT % of GDP  % of public expenditure  12  18  10  15  8  12  6  9  4  6  2  3  0  0  100 90  70  75  80  85  90  95  00  05  10  PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN SPAIN (2017)  80  CONSUMPTION  70 60  CAPITAL  50 40 30 20  LABOUR  10 0  16  2017  GEN. GVT. (% of GDP)  GENERAL GOVERNMENT  SOCIAL SECURITY  GEN. GVT. (% OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE) (right-hand scale)  REGIONAL GOVERNMENT  LOCAL GOVERNMENT  SOURCES: IGAE, INE and Banco de España. hampering economic growth.
The best way to control risks is the market incentive to do so. For the market to work, there must be adequate information transparency, and an adequate pay (or penalty) structure that causes the private sector or market to regulate itself. For example, excessive bonuses may have caused the Barings management to overlook the risks assumed by Leeson. Low pay for internal auditors relative to dealers may prevent them from raising the alarm bell. Internal audit committees of financial institutions should signify that they have considered the implications for the risk preferences of key personnel of their pay structures. It is now better recognized that a robust financial infrastructure is also a form of regulator on market participant behaviour. Modern financial infrastructure, such as automated payment systems, impose on market participants certain minimum standards of performance, such as time compliance in payments. Failure of one participant to perform would immediately expose the participant to market discipline. There is therefore peer pressure on market participants to comply with the standards demanded by international payment systems. Costs of Regulation Regulation is not without costs. The US estimates that regulation costs the consumer roughly 7% of GDP annually, both directly or indirectly. Bank regulation can be likened to deposit insurance - the higher the regulation and safety, the higher the insurance premium. One theory suggests that banks can elect to be one of three categories: super-safe banks, safe or normal. Super-safe banks are only allowed to hold super-safe assets, but in return have 100% deposit insurance.

BIS Review 124/2007  1
Regional economic conditions Let me now turn to economic conditions a bit closer to home. While Upstate New York outperformed the nation during the Great Recession, it has now returned to its more typical pattern of modest growth. This is not unexpected as many regions in the Northeast have tended to grow more slowly in recent decades as the population has shifted to other parts of the country and as jobs in the once dominant manufacturing industry have diminished. That being said, some parts of the region are really struggling: Syracuse, Utica, Binghamton and Elmira have all yet to see a meaningful recovery in employment, which is troubling. The Capital region, on the other hand, is a true bright spot. While Upstate New York as a whole has gained back only a little more than half of the jobs lost during the Great Recession, Albany is close to regaining all of the jobs that were lost. Though the Capital region’s public sector has exerted some downward pressure on job growth during the recovery, the education and health care sectors have been an ongoing source of stability and strength for the region. Employment in the education sector has climbed nearly 25 percent since the end of the recession, an increase of around 5,000 jobs, and the health care sector has added about 3,000 jobs.

Ajith Nivard Cabraal: Harmonizing fiscal and monetary policies to deliver stability and growth Text of the 18th Annual Oration by Mr Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka*, organized by the Faculty of Taxation, Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka, Colombo, 27 August 2013. *  *  *  *Also: Past President, Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka; Past President, South Asian Federation of Accountants; Former Secretary, Ministry of Plan Implementation. Chairman, Mr. Sujeewa Rajapaksha, President, CA Sri Lanka; Honourable Ministers; His Lordship Mohan Pieris, Chief Justice; Dr. P B Jayasundera, Secretary, Ministry of Finance & Planning; Secretaries to Ministries; Your Excellencies; Mr. H.A.S. Samaraweera, Auditor General; Deputy Governors and my colleagues at the Central Bank; Vice President and Council Members of CA Sri Lanka; Mr. N. R. Gajendran, Chairman, and Members of the Tax Faculty of CA Sri Lanka; Mr. Esmond Satarasinghe; Fellow Chartered Accountants; Members of the Business Community; My dear friends, At the outset, let me thank CA Sri Lanka for inviting me to deliver the 18th Annual Oration on Taxation organized by the Faculty of Taxation of CA Sri Lanka. I consider myself deeply privileged to have this unique opportunity.
On the positive side, the EU economy proved to be more resilient than expected in the face of the large negative terms-of-trade shock from Russia’s war in Ukraine and growth forecasts for 2023 were revised upwards. However, developments last autumn in the UK gilt market and, more recently, in the US and Swiss banking sectors remind us of the need to remain vigilant in regard to vulnerabilities in a challenging and rapidly changing macro-financial environment. In this context, let me explain the ESRB’s view on the key risks affecting the European Union’s financial sector. The aforementioned ESRB Warning set out four key risks to EU financial stability:3 • The challenging macroeconomic outlook coupled with elevated geopolitical tensions underscores the importance of a prudent management of credit, market and funding risks in the banking business. • An environment of still subdued growth prospects and elevated inflation may put firms' and households’ balance sheets under stress. • Vulnerabilities in the non-bank financial sector could trigger asset price corrections and amplify volatility. • System-wide cyber incidents remain a severe threat. The Warning has promoted a closer monitoring of risks by national and EU authorities that are members of the ESRB. Let me now offer an update of our current assessment. The EU banking sector remains strong in terms of its aggregate capital and liquidity position.

Tuan-tuan dan Puan-puan, Kami amat berbesar hati dengan kesudian Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi untuk melancarkan Laman Informasi Nasihat dan Khidmat Bank Negara Malaysia atau Bank Negara Malaysia LINK pada hari ini. Kami mengambil kesempatan dari kehadiran Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri di taklimat ekonomi di Bank Negara Malaysia pada pagi ini untuk merasmikan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK. Penubuhan Bank Negara Malaysia LINK merupakan komitmen Bank Negara Malaysia untuk meningkatkan lagi perkhidmatan yang diberikan kepada orang ramai dan membantu meningkatkan akses pembiayaan kepada perusahaan kecil dan sederhana. Perasmian ini amat bermakna kerana Yang Amat Berhormat Perdana Menteri merupakan peneraju kepada peningkatan sistem penyampaian sektor awam. Yang Amat Berhormat Dato' Seri juga telah memainkan peranan penting dalam usaha meningkatkan potensi perusahaan kecil dan sederhana sebagai enjin pertumbuhan ekonomi negara kita. Ladies and Gentlemen, Bank Negara Malaysia has always been in direct contact with the public. The Central Bank receives walk-in members of the public seeking information in relation to our operations, policies and regulations as well as those who seek redress on financial issues. The SME Unit in Bank Negara Malaysia also has direct contact with the SMEs relating to issues of access to financing. The establishment of Bank Negara Malaysia LINK is to allow the interface with members of the public as well as the SMEs to be centralised and conducted in a more efficient and effective manner. The premises of the Bank Negara Malaysia LINK was previously the Kuala Lumpur branch of Bank Negara Malaysia.
European Central Bank: Press Conference - introductory statements  Introductory statements by Mr Willem F Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Christian Noyer, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the Press Conference, held in Frankfurt, on 14 September 2000. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are here to report on the outcome of today’s meetings of the General Council and the Governing Council of the ECB. The Governing Council of the ECB today conducted its regular examination of recent monetary and economic developments and their implications for the risks to future price stability in the euro area. Subsequently, it decided to keep the interest rates on the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments unchanged. Thus, the minimum bid rate in the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem was left at 4.50%, and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were kept at 5.50% and 3.50%, respectively. Allow me to give you an overview of the main elements of our assessment of the latest information on monetary, financial market and other economic developments. As regards the developments in the context of the first pillar of the monetary policy strategy of the ECB, no new monetary data have become available since our decision taken on 31 August 2000 to raise the main ECB interest rates. After having increased at a very strong pace in the first quarter of 2000, M3 growth has been showing some signs of moderation over recent months.

For example, if you look at my preferred measure of underlying inflation, called trimmed-mean inflation—which removes the most volatile price movements—it’s been running at 2 percent. This measure of inflation hasn’t shown any signs of trending up or down. That said, I will be watching developments closely for signs of a persistent shift away from our 2 percent long-run goal. As I mentioned, the economy started the year with a lot of momentum. But there are reasons to believe that the surge in growth won’t persist through the remainder of the year. Taking into account of all the indicators we follow, I anticipate a step-down of economic growth, from the 3 percent growth recorded last year to a still-solid pace of about 2-1/4 percent in 2019. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  This is good news. It’s above the economy’s underlying potential, but not unsustainably so. Healthy economic growth should in turn fuel solid job gains, higher wages for workers, and some further declines in unemployment. The strong economy and labor market should also support inflation returning to 2 percent, the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal. The Global Picture In addition to the positive data we’ve been getting for the U.S., we’ve also seen encouraging signs that risks from global economic and financial markets are abating. Last year there were worries that the global growth slowdown centered in China and Europe would spill over onto our shores. This was one factor contributing to a more downbeat assessment of U.S. growth and the stock market sell-off.
Ardian Fullani: Recent economic and financial developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the press conference on monetary policy decision of the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, Tirana, 27 January 2010. *  *  *  The Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, in its meeting of January 27, 2010, dwelt with the Monetary Policy Statement for the second half of 2009, analysing in detail the performance of monetary and economic indicators for the second half of 2009, as well as the macroeconomic projections and the balance of risks that may associate them in the coming month. At the end of the analysis, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep unchanged the key interest rate of repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements, at 5.25 percent. The Supervisory Council assessed that this interest rate is in line with Bank of Albania’s goal to keep inflation close to the medium-term target. *** The Albanian economy has just left behind a difficult year. The deep global economic crisis was soon felt even in Albania, testing the foundations of the economy: the financial stability and the macroeconomic balances. However, the good initial state of our economy and the proper response of macroeconomic policies helped to successfully cope with this test.

It also guarantees the proper monetary support for the economy under this stage of development. In the future, the Bank of Albania remains willing to operate in line with the actual and expected performance of the economic indicators and in accordance with its principal objective. 4  BIS Review 11/2010