samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
There are also signs that employment is rising in education, the public sector and health and social services, from the weak levels recorded in the first six months of last year. Manufacturing employment remained well below the level one year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2003, but is falling at a slower pace. Unemployment has been fairly stable. Adjusted for seasonal variations, LFS  4  BIS Review 16/2004  unemployment stood at 4.6 per cent of the labour force as measured by Statistics Norway’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) in the fourth quarter of 2003. Growth in household demand, petroleum investment and increased activity in the business sector are paving the way for a rise in employment in the period ahead. On the other hand, intensified competition and continued rationalisation in the business sector may have a dampening impact on labour demand. This year, employment growth is expected to be fairly moderate even if there is a sharp rise in output. Only a slight decrease in unemployment is projected for 2004. Unemployment is projected to edge down in 2005 and 2006. After several years of high wage growth, pay increases in last year’s settlement were more moderate. Annual wage growth was nonetheless 4½% as substantial increases with effect from 2003 were awarded in the 2002 main wage settlement. Wage growth is projected to decline to 3¾% this year. The labour market appears to be improving somewhat more rapidly than expected previously. In isolation, this may contribute to pushing up wage growth relative to previous projections.

This also applies to Rogaland. In recent year, non-residential investment has accounted for more than a third of total investment in services and distributive trades. The large investments in this sector in the latter half of the 1990s has led to a high non-residential vacancy rate. Statistics Norway’s new price index for non-residential commercial property shows that in Norway as a whole, prices peaked in the first half of 2001 and have since fallen by over 9 per cent up to the first half of 2003. This situation is likely to curb overall investment growth in the years ahead. In 2004, many companies will probably realise the gains provided by the efficiency measures that have been implemented. Continued brisk growth in household demand is expected to boost investment activity in 2005 and 2006. Petroleum investment will also increase as a result of the Orme Lange project. This is also the case for Rogaland. Our regional network reports that demand is on the increase, the market outlook for the next six months is favourable and corporate profitability has improved considerably. The economic upturn is primarily being reinforced and driven by stronger household demand, although without any substantial increase in investment or employment. The upturn has both broadened out and gained momentum in the past months. All sectors report stable or increasing demand and sales. The market outlook for the next six months in this county is very positive. Optimism does not translate into a stronger willingness to invest, however.
That is for the Pensions Commission next year, and the Government in its turn. But I do want to show that risk is at the heart of the issue. 2. The nature of risk  “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes” wrote Benjamin Franklin in 1789. Great man though Franklin was, it is clear that there is indeed substantial uncertainty both about death, or at least its timing, and the contributions or taxes required to pay for our pensions. When thinking of how much to save for retirement, there are three main risks to consider. First, how much will we be earning in the future? Second, what will be the rate of return on our savings? Third, how long are we likely to live? Tonight I shall focus exclusively on longevity risk - the uncertainty about how long we shall live - in order to focus on my two propositions about probabilistic thinking and public policy.4 None of us know how long we shall live. But we can assess our chances by looking at the experience of others. A key distinction is between individual and collective risk. Chart 1 plots the observed mortality rates at different ages for women in England and Wales in 2002, the most recent year for which detailed data are available. (A similar story can be told for men). The most common age of death for women was 87, but many died at very different ages. Mortality among individuals varies greatly - individual risk.

On the one hand, it allows diverse experiences, arguments and points of views being brought to the table. On the other hand, there is a shared responsibility for the common decisions taken. It is not a single individual but the entire institution which is behind these decisions. To my mind both aspects are crucial for a strong and independent central bank. For these reasons accountability and transparency are both more easily and more appropriately implemented in the relationship between the public and the central bank as an institution, rather than primarily with respect to individual central bankers. In this relationship the public acts as a principal who delegates the task of monetary policy to the central bank as its agent. The act of delegation can be one-off, of a constitutional nature, or it can be periodically renewed. In both cases it is crucial that the central bank can be held accountable for its performance by the public. This can be achieved in different - more or less formal - ways. Even if no explicit contractual elements and specific sanctions are incorporated in this relationship the delegation of decision-making authority to an independent central bank establishes a kind of quasi-contractual relationship. The delegation of authority represents an act of trust on the part of the public and it represents a promise and an obligation on the part of the central bank to fulfil its mandate. So, should we - should you - have faith in central banks? The answer is yes and no.
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard has recently discussed these issues and highlighted some of the critical issues and potential trade-offs.15 For example, new entrants’ use of non-traditional data may enhance credit analysis, but this could have implications for consumer privacy and protection. As a second example, the economics of innovation may favor rapid introduction of new products to gain a first-mover advantage, but this approach may be a challenge in an industry like banking that requires trust and confidence to support a stable business model. It is imperative that risk management keep pace with financial innovation. Third, I’ll mention business conduct risk. The New York Fed has challenged the financial industry to consider and address the many factors that have contributed to recent, widespread misconduct at large financial firms.16 These incidents impose real costs in the form of fines, settlements, and the diversion of internal resources related to investigation and remediation. In addition, there are more difficult to measure costs linked to the potential loss of confidence and trust in the firm and the industry. Recurring misconduct poses a real threat to the provision of financial services if customers and counterparties were to pull away from the sector. Supervisors can help mitigate these risks by supporting the development of effective internal 5/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  governance regimes, prudent risk management policies, and strong compliance and control structures, all within a framework of effective oversight from the firm’s board of directors.

If the parent bank of a cross-border banking group defaults, it is getting more and more unrealistic to assume that the foreign subsidiaries could continue their business as usual. It would take time to establish all the necessary competence to transform such a subsidiary to an independent bank. Also, the possibilities for the host country to successfully ring-fence the assets is diminishing given the speed at which funds can be transferred across borders. When there still is a clear legal difference between branches and subsidiaries with clear consequences for supervision, the distinction becomes less important both in practical and in economic terms. Fifth, and as a consequence of this merger activity, the banking market in some countries is dominated by foreign banks. In the ten new EU member states, about 70 per cent of the banking sectors are foreign owned. In Estonia, foreign groups account for more than 90 per cent of all lending. My worry is that the next financial crisis in Europe could have serious cross-border implications and not be bounded by national borders. As a central banker, I see it as a major responsibility to be prepared for such an event, both in terms of handling the acute problem and in finding more long-term solutions. One reason why this cross-border development is more pronounced in Europe than in many other parts of the world is the long-term project of creating a single market for financial services in Europe. Let me be clear here. I strongly support this project.
I was tempted by this flight of the imagination to frame my remarks today as the views of that author looking back at the work we are undertaking in 2005. In truth, though, I thought it might depart too much from the usual field of play of central bankers and supervisors. Instead, I’d like to share my views on how the elements of Basel II take us “back to the future,” not unlike the journey of Mr Wong’s author in 2046 from the future to the past. In many ways, Basel II brings us back to a traditional focus on risk, but with the benefit of the most advanced techniques emerging today and into the future. 2. Overview  Specifically, I would like to try to address four key points. Firstly, I would like to consider the current framework for promoting financial stability. I will argue that, despite significant progress, our policy and decision-making framework for financial stability is still incomplete, especially if we draw a comparison with the framework for monetary stability. That said, there are a number of lessons we have learned in recent years that can be useful for the future, and which we have taken into account in designing the new Basel II capital framework. One of the most important of these is the very real and positive contribution that sound risk management practices can make to promoting financial stability.

In summary, even though the framework for financial stability is not as comprehensive as in the case of price stability, significant progress has been made in all of these areas in recent years. There is a fourth lesson that is particularly relevant for this presentation, and it is a lesson that we have learned from periods of bank resilience in times of stress. During the past few years, financial markets have experienced a series of significant shocks. However, the banking system has been able to cope with them successfully. Financial innovation, the existence of deeper financial markets with a great variety and availability of instruments to transfer risks, and the improvement of the capacity of financial institutions to understand and manage their risks are key ingredients in explaining the resilience of the financial system during the period of shocks. And that leads me to my next point: important trends in risk management. 4. Recent trends in risk management  Financial stability is a key precondition for sustained growth. It is crucial, therefore, to find reliable ways of identifying risks to financial stability and, in particular, to banking stability, and to try to manage these risks in the most effective way. Indeed, as experience has repeatedly shown, both inside Asia and elsewhere, having a solid and well-run banking system not only greatly reduces the likelihood of shocks originating inside the banking system but also makes it less likely that shocks arising elsewhere in the economy are amplified through the banking system.
The first and third of the Government review objectives are also mutually supportive: breadth of investment is essential to the business model of a large part of the UK industry, so by removing unnecessary barriers to investment we further both objectives. So why focus on competitiveness and productive investment today? Apart from being front of mind in most of my discussions with the insurance sector, they feature amongst the principles the PRA ‘has regard to’ when making rules or designing policy. Matters that PRA ‘has regard to’ serve to focus the decision-makers’ minds in weighing up how best to advance the PRA’s objectives given to us in law[4]. To put this more colloquially, the PRA does not make rules or design policy solely in pursuit of a secondary objective or the goals underlying a ‘have regard’. Rather, the existing secondary competition objective, and also the principles underlying our ‘have regards’ shape how we go about advancing our primary objectives. We have thought carefully about the impact of our potential reforms in these areas. So, I want to explain how we’re having regard to competitiveness and productive investment as we develop reform proposals. Investment flexibility and productive investment Looking first at investment flexibility. UK insurers manage almost £ of investment assets, and it is an objective of regulatory reform to support the productive investment of those funds.

But just as the Scottish Enlightenment still influences our thinking today, so the twin features of that framework – namely inflation targeting and independence of the Bank of England – will be crucial to successful monetary policy in the future. Just as the Monetary Policy Committee meets monthly to decide on interest rates, so David Hume and Adam Smith met regularly in the Poker Club to debate the policy issues of the day. Hume was an officer of the Club with the unusual title of the Assassin’s Assessor, “without whose assent nothing could be done”, and whose role was to ensure that in meetings “there was likely to be no bloodshed”. So I take it that Hume at least would have been content with last week’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. There is no Assassin’s Assessor on the Monetary Policy Committee, nor – you will be relieved to hear – any bloodshed. But, month by month, we shall be debating the prospects for the economy in order to decide in which direction, if any, interest rates need to move. 4  BIS Review 52/2006
The degree of employment fell considerably in connection with the crisis years and has only partially recovered since then. Moreover, since the 1990s crisis, many of those who lost their jobs have not returned to the labour market at all. This is ominous, given that economic growth in the past decade has nevertheless been relatively high in a historical perspective. To some extent, the drop in the labour force percentage can be explained by education factors. In connection with the 1990s crisis there was a significant decline in labour force participation among younger age groups, which was connected to tougher competition for jobs and many young people choosing to improve their qualifications instead of entering the labour market. Since then, there have been changes aimed at raising the level of education in society in general, for instance by lengthening upper-secondary school programmes and expanding university colleges. These education initiatives are highly justifiable in themselves, but they also entail a lower participation in the labour force and thereby an increased dependency burden for the active part of the population. Although some of the decline in labour force participation can be attributed to education factors, this is not the full explanation. Calculations for 2003 show that close to 30 per cent of the group remaining outside the labour force were studying. The others remained outside the labour force for other reasons, with early retirement for health reasons, now known as sickness benefit, as one of the most common causes.

MAS and key industry associations such as ACI Singapore, the Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF), Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS), are committed to equip our financial workforce with the necessary skills and knowledge through seminars and other training programmes. MAS will also continue to collaborate with financial institutions, the tripartite partners, and institutes of higher learning to build a strong local pipeline of specialised talent, particularly in areas such as information technology, computing, data analytics. 25 If we can do well in these two key areas, it will position our FX market and participants to capture growth opportunities and serve the needs of the Asian markets. Conclusion 26 Promoting and embedding the Code within the global FX market and in Singapore, is a journey that we have committed to. We hope that you can support these efforts, from your firms and in your individual capacity as market participants. 27 We have also co-created our medium term business strategies with market participants like yourselves, and we are committed to making them work, and bringing more innovation into the market place. 28 With this, I hope that you will have a productive and rewarding conference ahead. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
Tarisa Watanagase: Dealing with volatile capital flows Welcome address by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the 42nd SEACEN Governors’ Conference, Bangkok, 28 July 2007. *  *  *  Your Excellency Minister of Finance, Mr. Rodrigo de Rato, Mr. Hervé Hannoun, Fellow Governors, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I would like to begin by extending a very warm welcome to all of you to Bangkok. We are pleased to host the 42nd SEACEN Governors’ Conference and the 26th Meeting of SEACEN Board of Governors here in Bangkok. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to His Excellency Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Finance Minister of Thailand, for his presence here to officially open the Conference. This year’s theme on “Living with Volatilities: Is SEACEN prepared for Rising Fluctuations in Exchange Rate and Capital Flows?” comes at an opportune moment, given a recent volatile and uncertain market conditions. This volatility has posed challenges to central banks in maintaining monetary and financial stability. Let me share with you some of my views on this very important issue. It is traditionally believed that emerging markets are subject to more volatile capital flows than developed countries due to underdevelopment of our financial markets and weak institutions. Thus, putting in place a more flexible exchange rate policy, credible monetary policy and sound domestic financial system could help emerging markets reduce the volatility of capital flows as well as its negative effect on the economic stability.

I hope that we could learn a great deal from one another in this traditional session, particularly on how we should prepare ourselves for those potential risks in order to maintain internal as well as regional economic stability. In addition, I believe that the Meeting of SEACEN Board of Governors, tomorrow, will continue to play an important role in providing guidelines for future works and activities of  BIS Review 88/2007  1  SEACEN for the years to come. Our guidelines will be important for the SEACEN Centre to pursue its mission and become “a premier regional training centre for central banks in the Asia-Pacific region” according to its vision. Ladies and Gentlemen, This year is a very auspicious year for SEACEN over its 40 year-history as it marks the 25th year of the establishment of the SEACEN Centre. We are, therefore, very honored and privileged to host the Celebration of the Silver Anniversary of the SEACEN Centre, here again in Bangkok, where the Agreement to establish the Centre was signed back in 25 years ago. Over these past two decades, the SEACEN Centre has become increasingly important in promoting better understanding of the financial, monetary, banking and economic development matters. Its role does not benefit only the sixteen member central banks but also extends to several other countries throughout Asia and Pacific region. I would like to take this opportunity, therefore, to congratulate the SEACEN Centre for its work in helping bind together our community of central banks in the region.
Oil prices have also been influenced by international incidents, such as terror actions and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita that resulted in extensive damage both to installations that produce crude oil and natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico and to refineries in the area. Last summer, North Sea oil prices (Brent Blend) generally ranged between USD 55-60 per barrel, and in August prices were approaching USD 70 per barrel. Oil futures have also increased. Since the beginning of October, oil prices have fallen back somewhat, and the price of North Sea oil has been below USD 55 per barrel for the past few days. The price fall primarily reflects slower growth in oil demand in many markets. This may be a sign that oil prices have reached a limit in terms of how high prices can be without having a noticeable impact on oil demand and other economic activity. Rising or persistently high oil prices may gradually dampen growth among our most important trading partners. The slowdown may occur gradually, and will not necessarily be particularly pronounced. It appears that high oil prices are resulting in somewhat higher consumer price inflation among several of our trading partners than assumed earlier. There are clear signs that consumer prices are increasing more rapidly in the US, the UK and to a certain extent in the euro area. So far, high energy prices have had a limited impact on other consumer prices. Core inflation in the US and the euro area has shown little increase so far.

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the cyclical situation Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a meeting with local authorities and the business community, Kapp, 23 November 2005. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 2 November, Inflation Report 3/05 and on previous speeches. Charts in pdf-format can be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  The economic situation The cyclical upturn in the Norwegian economy continues. Overall capacity utilisation in the economy has increased. After a period of very low consumer price inflation, there are prospects that inflation will again rise at a faster pace. Interest-rate setting since this spring has been oriented towards a gradual increase in the interest rate – in small, not too frequent steps – towards a more normal level. On the basis of the analysis in Inflation Report 3/05, this strategy still appears to provide a reasonable balance between the objectives of monetary policy. The reduction in Norges Bank’s key rate through 2003 and into 2004 resulted in low interest rates. At the beginning of the recovery, falling interest rates and expectations of low real interest rates ahead fuelled private consumption. A weaker krone exchange rate and the international recovery stimulated traditional merchandise exports.