Private consumption fell markedly, the decline in housing investment accelerated and mainland business investment started to fall. The downturn in the world economy and the abnormal conditions in financial markets are expected to continue to mark the Norwegian economy ahead. Mainland GDP is projected to contract by 1 per cent between 2008 and 2009. Norwegian government finances are sound, with substantial net wealth, although the surplus will be reduced by the fall in oil prices. The automatic stabilisers in the national budget together with discretionary fiscal policy will stimulate the mainland economy by the equivalent of 5 per cent of GDP from 2008 to 2009. Fiscal policy is assumed to become less  BIS Review 42/2009  3  expansionary between 2010 and 2012. Government oil revenue spending is expected to be brought back into line with the fiscal rule when cyclical conditions eventually normalise. We assume that prospects for higher unemployment, a fall in house prices and a high level of debt will induce households to build up financial buffers and reduce debt. The saving ratio is expected to increase considerably. Net lending is projected to be positive this year after being negative since 2004. As household borrowing has been considerable in recent years, deleveraging in the household sector is important to long-term stability in the economy. The outlook ahead and monetary policy assessments Inflation will be curbed by lower capacity utilisation. The marked increase in unemployment now envisaged will result in lower pay increases this year and next.

Since joining the EU and until 2018, Romania had accessed more than 21 billion EUR as EU funds that contributed to development and bridged the gap of convergence with developed economies in the EU. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  NBR’s recent research on the impact of EU funds on Romanian economy shows that an increase by 1 percentage point of GDP in structural and cohesion funds has a short term eﬀect of up to 0.7 percentage points on economic growth and a medium-term effect of up to 3 percentage points1. Thus, significant efforts should be made to guarantee that Romania improves the efficiency of EU funds absorption. In order to achieve that, Romania needs sound policies oriented towards macroeconomic balance and safeguarding financial stability. Foreign direct investments are also essential for economic growth. The picture here is mixed. During the second half of the year 2018 and in 2019, persistent pressures on global economic growth and subsequent downward revisions of expected growth rate impacted the investments and the reallocation of capital. Constant trade tensions, terrorism and geopolitical uncertainties are causing a slowdown in economies across the world. At the same time, new technologies have disrupted global value chains and the classic employment model, while new climate change related risks have emerged in the financial sector. On the other part, investing in companies with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies, in green bonds and in new technologies supporting the digital economy, will contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement objectives and a sustainable development.