samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A weaker exchange rate affects inflation directly in that imported goods will become more expensive. At the same time, domestic goods become cheaper than foreign goods. This leads to a decline in imports and a rise in exports. Higher demand for domestic goods contributes to an increase in resource utilisation and inflationary pressures. Inflation expectations are also important to the way in which companies set prices and to how wage formation functions, and thereby to the development of inflation. If everyone is confident that inflation will remain low, the companies do not need to change their prices so often, and employees do not need to increase their wage demands. This makes it easier for the Riksbank to achieve the inflation target. This then is mainly how monetary policy is supposed to work normally. But when the financial markets are not working normally the transmission mechanism is also affected. The various channels simply do not work as effectively as they usually do. This also makes the link between monetary policy and financial stability particularly important. Monetary policy and financial stability are interlinked As you know, the Riksbank has more than just a monetary policy mandate. In addition to maintaining price stability, the Riksbank also has the task of promoting a safe and efficient payment system. We thus have two main tasks: monetary policy and financial stability. These tasks are of course interlinked even under normal conditions.

It is therefore our hope that the MOU we are signing today will assist in not only fostering stronger trade relationships between Zambia and China but to also avail our staff a multi cultural awareness which would assist them both in their official work and in developing their social networks. We also hope that staff will have opportunities for higher education in China and other South East Asian countries where the Chinese language is spoken. Allow me to mention here that, already three bank employees are currently pursuing Phd programmes in China under the Chinese Government scholarship programme. With the introduction of this initiative, it is my hope that more of our staff can be offered scholarships to study in China. In conclusion, let me appeal to the members of staff who will be enrolled on the programme to take the course seriously bearing in mind the resources that the bank is investing into this undertaking. To this effect I urge the human resources department to enrol employees who are committed to learning the language. I also wish to thank the Chinese International School in Zambia for accepting our proposal and we look forward to a further cooperation with other Chinese institutions in order to foster the relations of our two countries. Lastly, I want to thank you, Your Excellency, for finding time to witness this great occasion. I thank you all for your attention. 2  BIS Review 175/2010
While that is a secondary listing, it certainly underlines the unique position of Hong Kong as an international financial centre that connects the fast growing Mainland market to global investors. 4. I know some of you may have doubts that the Chinese economy is actually slowing down in face of trade dispute and deleveraging. That is true if we compare to the days when Mainland GDP was growing at double-digit every year. But let’s remember, a real growth of 6% is still a very respectable pace compared to economies around the world. And with Mainland China’s sheer size, a 6% GDP growth means adding some $ trillion nominal value to the world’s GDP in a single year. This is more than the total size of the Indonesian economy, or close to that of Australia. 5. With such economic expansion and its deepening capital markets, China continues to be a compelling investment theme for global investors. As an investment manager ourselves, we are among the first offshore players in the Mainland’s capital markets. Surely, for the past eight or nine years since we invested in the Mainland, there had been some very challenging times, such as the RMB exchange rate reform, the stock market turmoil and fear of economic hard landing. But looking through these short-term ups and downs, two unmistakable trends are consistently borne out by actual developments. The first is the progressive opening of the markets, and the second is the growing momentum of international investors’ allocation to Chinese assets.

As you may know, the membership has just agreed to an increase of 45 percent, equivalent to about $ billion, in IMF quotas. This will raise the capital base of the institution to some $ billion. In addition, the Fund has taken steps to augment its financial resources through the agreement on the New Arrangements to Borrow. Under these arrangements, participants would be prepared to lend up to the equivalent of some $ billion when additional resources are needed to forestall or cope with an impairment of the international monetary system, or deal with an exceptional situation that poses a threat to the stability of the system. We hope that participants who have not yet done so will complete the necessary legislative action so that these arrangements can enter into force soon. BIS Review 111/1997  -6-  Furthermore, in order to allow all members to participate on an equitable basis in the SDR system, agreement has been reached on a proposal to amend the Fund’s Articles of Agreement to authorize a special one-time allocation of SDRs of about $ billion that would equalize all members’ ratios of SDR allocations to quotas and would double the amount of SDRs allocated to date. These resources will supplement members’ reserves, giving them more flexibility in economic policies and a cushion against adverse developments. Last but not least, recent experience has demonstrated once again that early warnings cannot always prevent crisis from blowing up.
BIS Review 93/2006  3  Capacity utilisation can also be followed more directly in the NIER’s business tendency surveys and through analyses of labour supply. The business tendency surveys indicate that capacity utilisation is not yet so high seen over the economy as a whole. However, it has risen to high levels in the construction sector and in certain services sectors. Analyses of the labour supply also indicate that there are substantial labour reserves. Open unemployment is still relatively high. In addition, there will be many latent job-seekers, including full-time students looking for work, and an increasing number of people will continue to work after they reach the age of retirement. Labour force immigration will also increase. To summarise, I can see that the economic conditions for next year’s wage bargaining rounds look good. Growth is high and employment is rising, but the economic upturn is, in my view, not so strong as to prevent capacity utilisation remaining at a relatively normal level next year. Profits in the business sector are good, but not as exaggerated as in the mid-1990s when we last faced problems with overly high nominal wages. Inflation is moderate and the conditions for attaining the inflation target over the coming years are good, on condition that the Riksbank gradually increases the repo rate. This was also the message in our most recently-published Inflation Report. Conclusion Let me conclude with a summary of what I have said so far. The experiences of the 1970s and 1980s were very negative.

Fiscal policy is then best handled by the government, not by the central bank. The Riksbank's monetary policy is already expansionary and contributing to supporting demand in the Swedish economy. But there are limited possibilities to make monetary policy even more expansionary, in my opinion. There are, however, good possibilities to make fiscal policy more expansionary. I therefore believe that fiscal policy will play a larger role in stabilisation policy if economic activity weakens further in the coming years. Climate change entails new economic and financial risks Climate change is one of the structural changes I have talked about today. I have noted that Örebro was one of the first municipalities in Sweden that issued a green bond. Here at Kommuninvest, in Örebro, I think that it may be appropriate to conclude by elaborating on what I see as the Riksbank's role in the work to achieve greener financial markets. Climate change affects the way the economy functions. Its impact is most clear in the insurance sector, as a direct consequence of the risks of climate-related damage. The risks may also increase on the financial markets when various branches are forced into major changeovers as a result of demand, taxation or regulations being changed. 7 Monetary policy can also be affected more directly, for instance if economic data becomes more difficult to interpret when the effects of the weather lead to larger fluctuations in prices and production.
Similarly, bank refinancing operations, such as the TLTROs, can reduce banks’ funding costs and, ultimately, the cost of bank loans, thus stimulating aggregate demand and inflation.7 However, even though these measures have been highly effective in the euro area in present and recent circumstances, they do not completely eliminate the limits on the degree of potential monetary stimulus deriving from the existence of the lower interest rate bound. In consequence, central banks have introduced other tools with which to smooth that limit, the most common of these being forward guidance.8 This enables the central bank to offer guidance to the market as to how interest rates will evolve, or are expected to evolve, in future. For instance, in its monetary policy announcements, the ECB links the question of holding its interest rates at their present levels, or lower, to inflation developments in the euro area. In this manner, the ECB seeks to convey to financial markets, and to society at large, the conditions that would have to be met in order to begin to raise interest rates. Where short-term interest rates are close to their lower bound, forward guidance may stimulate the economy insofar as the central bank undertakes in a credible manner to tolerate inflation over the target level once the economic situation thus permits.9 Given that the real interest rate is the nominal rate stripping out inflation expectations, if the central bank is able to raise these expectations, it can reduce the real interest rate today, even if nominal rates remain constant.

These four key elements provide the context for the ongoing current debate on how best we can promote the single, integrated, European financial market - and I mean by “we” not just the authorities,  BIS Review 72/2002  1  who have an interest in the macro-economic efficiency of the market, but also market participants themselves, who stand to benefit at the micro-economic level from the new opportunities it will provide. But before I move on to that question perhaps I might go off at what may seem something of a tangent, and reflect briefly upon our own experience here in the UK as we moved - in fits and starts certainly but in the same general direction - from a heavily administered economic and financial system to one which is now very much market based. Even before I started at the Bank 40 years ago post-war controls had largely been dismantled. But the economic and financial system was still governed by all kinds of direct controls - exchange controls, credit ceilings - coupled with directional guidance, business restrictions - on the activities of building societies for example, the queuing of equity issuance, prices and incomes policies, public ownership of large parts of industry, and so on - all of which have now gone. It's true that plenty of regulation remains - reflecting public policy concerns relating essentially to competition, consumer protection and systemic stability. Indeed it has intensified in these areas.
Improving our fiscal position is the most effective means we have available to reduce our vulnerability during this prolonged period of adjustment. We need to produce a substantial reduction in our structural deficit over the medium term and begin to reduce the more dramatic longer term gap  2/3  between our resources and commitments. And we need to restore a reasonable cushion in our structural budget balance to help us deal with future shocks. If we are unable to begin to generate more confidence in the capacity of the U.S. political system to produce these improvements, we would face a greater risk of future increases in risk premia. And even though substantial fiscal consolidation would not by itself bring the external imbalance down to a more sustainable level, it would improve the prospect for a smoother adjustment to that outcome. The general risk inherent in these imbalances—the risk of more adverse growth outcomes and asset price volatility—reinforces the importance of sustaining the strength and resilience of the U.S. financial system. Our financial system today is in substantially stronger shape than it was even in the recent past, and the major institutions now appear to be managed so that they are less vulnerable to the type and magnitude of shocks they’ve experienced in the past couple decades. Our challenge, however, it to make sure they are as well positioned to deal with the full range of potential future risks.

The apparent strength in U.S. productivity growth, our greater overall flexibility as an economy and the resilience of our financial system puts us in a stronger position to deal with the challenges in the transition ahead. But we face a number of difficult long-term challenges as a nation—in our fiscal position, in how well we equip our citizens to prosper in a more competitive world and in our ability to sustain political support for the policies, including our relatively open trade policy, that have been an important source of the improvement in U.S. prosperity. Our external imbalances make it more important that we invest in meeting those challenges. Thank you. 3/3
•  Another milestone was the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union, at the beginning with 11, then 12 and 13 and 15 members since January this year. o  The Treaty establishing the European Community assigns the European System of Central Banks the primary objective of maintaining price stability. The ECB has managed to gain and maintain trust of the public and of market participants by delivering price stability. Although the single monetary policy faced a number of significant challenges, the ECB managed to stabilise the HICP inflation on average at 2,1 % from 19992007. This compares with an inflation rate of 3 % in the nine years preceding the EMU. o  The inflation expectations in the euro area have been anchored in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability: below but close to 2%. This underlines the high reputation the ECB’s monetary policy has gained over time. II  Given the topic of my speech, the principles, procedures and criteria that govern the adoption of the euro, I would like to underline the key principles for joining the euro area at the very outset: 1. A country must first be a member of the European Union before it can adopt the euro. The EU Treaty lays down the criteria that European States have to respect before they can apply for EU membership. BIS Review 17/2008  1  2. The roadmap and the conditions for the adoption of the euro are laid down in the EC Treaty.

Last year the previous Riigikogu issued the central bank with a clearer mandate than ever before for macroprudential supervision in Estonia, and we have started to act on this mandate. Macroprudential supervision aims to increase the resilience of the banks and the rest of the financial system to systemic problems and to restrain the accumulation of major risks. •  The first measure introduced by Eesti Pank was the requirement for commercial banks to hold a 2% systemic risk buffer. The systemic risk buffer is needed to manage the banking risks that are specific to a small and open economy. The introduction of the buffer did not imply any major changes for the banks operating in Estonia, as their capitalisation levels were already above that required. The measure was a precautionary step by the central bank to guard against possible risks in the future. •  The second step was taken three months ago when requirements for housing loans were applied to the commercial banks by the central bank with the aim of pre-  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  empting possible credit booms in the future. The requirements do not have any noticeable effect on the loan market as things stand, as the banks are in any case currently acting conservatively. Both of these measures are precautionary steps taken against any significant future increase in the risks in the real estate market should competing banks start to take on excessive risk.
Despite this, Government bonds accounted for the largest proportion of the outstanding total stock of marketable securities, contributing K5,439.4 billion (54.7%) to the entire portfolio. Total Treasury bills in circulation amounted to K4,501.5 billion, representing 45.3% of the total marketable securities outstanding. 13. Investment in Treasury bills held by non-residents increased to K497.0 billion from K8.8 billion in the third quarter. The increase reflected renewed confidence in short-term Government paper. Conversely, foreign Investment in Government bonds decreased to K127.9 billion from K150.5 billion recorded in the third quarter, due to net maturities. Collectively, total holdings of Government securities by non-resident was K625.4 billion, representing 7% of total securities outstanding. 14. Developments in commercial banks’ nominal interest rates continued to be mixed during the reviewed quarter, with the weighted average lending base rate (WALBR) trending downwards to 19.4% from 19.8% in September 2010. Similarly, the average lending rate (ALR) fell to 26.4% in December 2010 from 26.8% in September 2010. However, the 30-day deposit rate for amounts exceeding K20 million and the average savings rate (ASR) for amounts above K100,000 remained unchanged at 5.6% and 4.7%, respectively. Real sector 15. Developments in the real sector were satisfactory during the reviewed quarter. This was reflected by higher output of most monitored commodities, and an increase in investment pledges. 1  2  Figures in square brackets are for September 2010. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Food reserve agency stocks 16.

Cement output increased by 26.1% to 359,966.0 mt in the fourth quarter of 2010 from 312,791.0 mt during the previous quarter. This outturn was attributed to a rise in cement production at Lafarge Cement and Oriental Quarries by 14.9% and 2.3% to 251,505.0 mt and 16,295 mt, respectively. Zambezi Portland Plc also increased its output of cement by 18.1%  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  to 92,166.0 mt. Total output of cement for the year at 1,126,728 mt was 37.9% higher than the 817,223.0 mt produced in 2009. Tourism 24. During the quarter under review, international arrivals at the country’s four international airports 2 declined to 116,140 passengers from 124,244 passengers in the third quarter of 2010. However, this was 24.0% higher than 93,688 passengers recorded during the fourth quarter of 2009. Livingstone and Mfuwe international airports, which are the major tourist destinations, accounted for 20,590 passengers and 257 passengers compared with 21,272 passengers and 241 passengers in the previous quarter, respectively. 25. On an annual basis, international arrivals at the country’s four international airports increased to 679,172 passengers from 438,788 passengers recorded in 2009, representing an increase of 20.27%. Investment 26. Total investment pledges were estimated at US $ billion in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with US $ million in the third quarter.
On one hand, in the aftermath of the 2008–2009 crisis the main central banks of the world had to adopt unconventional policies to cheer up their ailing economies, flooding the world with unprecedented levels of liquidity and thus increasing the price of financial assets. Today, the start of the US monetary policy normalization is around the corner, which will intensify the divergence with other developed economies whose cycles are behind. Meanwhile, after years of seemingly endless increases in commodity prices, we have seen the so-called super cycle of commodities wear out, and with it, the boom of investment and income that we experienced for the better part of the past decade. These two situations pose major challenges to emerging economies and Chile in particular. In the short term, it is very likely that we will see increased financial volatility, including unusual fluctuations in the exchange rate. This may complicate the inflation outlook, at least in the short term, as inflation is closely linked to fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate over short periods. The effects of these situations of increased volatility on the inflation trajectory at longer terms, which certainly are more important for monetary policy, are difficult to predict, as they depend on many factors, such as the cyclical state of the economy and expectations, which we carefully assess when making our decisions. Certainly these are not the only challenges that these transitions face us with.

About the monetary policy rate, at the statistical cutoff of this Report market expectations showed differences in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the expected path for 2015. The surveys indicated that the MPR would remain in 3 percent throughout this year, to rise during 2016. Meanwhile, the prices of financial assets suggested that it should be raised during the second half of 2015. As a working assumption, the MPR is assumed to follow a trajectory that is somewhat above what is implicit in the surveys (figure 10). As is usual in our projections, the baseline scenario reflects those events estimated to be the most likely to occur with the information at hand at the close of this Report. There are risks, however that, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic scenario and, therefore, may alter the course of monetary policy. Abroad, there are several elements that might trigger new episodes of volatility in world financial markets, with significant effects on credit costs, currency parities and the short-term inflation outlook. On one hand, important surprises regarding the timing and the speed with which the Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark rate may cause significant volatility in global financial markets, pushing interest rates up and further appreciating the dollar. In such a scenario, one cannot rule out that, additionally, we observe an abrupt portfolio rebalancing, given the low level of long-term interest rates and the high stock prices in the United States.