samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In such a scenario, the króna would depreciate sharply, at least over a considerably long period of time, undermining banking system liquidity and public sector finances and making domestic and foreign Treasury financing much more expensive and difficult. In this context, it is appropriate to emphasise that Iceland is facing a balance of payments problem and not a debt problem. Its gross debt currently amounts to 224% of GDP, and net debt is 52% of GDP, excluding the debt of the failed banks. The underlying debt position is much stronger, however. Estimates prepared by Bank staff a year ago suggest that once the old banks’ estates have been settled and the air has cleared, gross debt will total 230–240% of GDP, and net debt, based on the estimated financial statements of the old banks will be about 60–80%. If the effects of one company’s subordinated debt to its owners are excluded, net debt declines by another 40–50% of GDP. These estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. The figures are currently being revised to take account of the most recent data, but there is a strong likelihood that Iceland’s underlying debt will be roughly the levels seen at the turn of the century when all is said and done. The problem is that too large a share of it is short-term debt and without a negotiation process. The capital controls are intended to  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  provide the space and negotiating position needed to address this situation.

But the controls affect the exchange rate of the króna and should do so. By all available measures and in international comparison, the króna has fluctuated less since the controls were imposed than it did over a long period prior to the banking and currency crisis. I have discussed recent economic developments and conditions, but what about the outlook? According to the Bank’s February forecast, output growth is expected to measure 2½% in 2012 and roughly the same in the following two years. If this forecast materialises, unemployment will decline gradually over the period, to about 5% in 2014, by which time the slack in the economy is expected to have disappeared. An underlying current account surplus is expected throughout the forecast horizon. According to the forecast, inflation will subside over the course of 2012, approaching the target in 2013 and aligning with it in 2014. These projections are dependent on a number of factors, however, specifically the exchange rate, which is currently below the levels assumed in the forecast. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  As so often before, the economic outlook is uncertain, not least because of the global situation. The most recent indicators of private consumption and economic activity in the first quarter are broadly in line with the forecast, and perhaps a bit better. On the other hand, the short-term inflation outlook has deteriorated, and it could take a longer time than previously expected to bring inflation back to target unless the króna appreciates in coming months.
We also allow for the wage Philips Curve to be non-stationary: it moves over time, and it is absolutely normal to do so. Reference wage values, social preferences, jobs’ characteristics, skill endowments and even Central Banks’ targets, they all change over time – hence, the impact of wage gaps on inflation cannot be the same in different time periods. The preliminary finding of our model is that inflation does not increase close to or above its target level until the wage gap is closed. For Philips Curve to work, the loss of welfare from a negative wage gap has to be fully compensated first – as a stock measure, not as a flow. The policy recommendation from here is that countries which closed their wage gap should be much more prudent in further wage increases – because they will be seen in inflation much faster and larger than in the recent past. And for countries which have not closed their wage gap the implication is 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  that inflation will remain subdued until this happens. I fully agree with the IMF’s recommendation that central banks in NMS with their own currencies should be alert to the inflation risks of higher wage growth, while bearing in mind that raising policy rates could trigger capital inflows and exchange rate appreciation – which could further deepen current account imbalances. While the real monetary policy stance may differ between euroarea and emerging Europe, there is broad heterogeneity even among emerging Europe.

Eddie Yue: Opening keynote - "Scaling up sustainable finance in Asia" conference Opening keynote by Mr Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the ASIFMA "Scaling up Sustainable Finance in Asia" conference, Hong Kong, 17 March 2023. *** Alice, Diana, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, Good Morning, Let me start by thanking ASIFMA for inviting me to this Sustainable Finance Conference. It is my great pleasure to share with you Hong Kong's vision and the concrete steps being taken to strengthen our leading role in green and sustainable finance. As we come into Spring after a colder-than-usual winter, this is a good time to talk about the advances that happen when the right ecosystem is combined with the right opportunities. In the financial world, green and sustainable finance brings extraordinary opportunities. And if we are looking for the best ecosystem for these opportunities to flourish, Hong Kong is the place. The climate challenge to Asia is huge, and urgent. Meeting this challenge will require substantial investment – some $ trillion over the next three decades based on market estimates. China alone will require more than 100 trillion yuan. The multi-trillion-dollar funding need can hardly be met by the public sector alone, and climate finance plays a crucial role here. It helps the public sector raise funding from the market to finance climate projects and initiatives. It also mobilises private capital to directly fund climate actions.
The question is whether continued high growth in parts of Asia can sustain activity in the world economy. Four conditions are limiting growth in the western world: 1. Debt among households and banks is high. 2. Interest rates cannot be lowered further. 3. Many countries have high public debt levels and several governments are facing a financial crisis. 4. Real exchange rates are strong. The combination of high household debt and expectations of weak growth is pushing up saving. Low interest rates are not sufficient to boost investment and consumption in an environment of sharply reduced confidence in growth ahead, while both lenders and borrowers are seeking to reduce their debt. Central bank interest rates cannot be lowered further, but it has been communicated that interest rates will be kept low for a long period. Central banks have purchased government securities and private bonds in order to keep long-term interest rates low and are of the view that these quantitative easing measures have been effective. BIS Review 113/2010  1  Sovereign debt to GDP in the G7  As a result of the fiscal policy measures, government debt in major advanced economies is now as high, measured as a percentage of GDP, as in the wake of World War II after a period of debt-financed military spending. The high level of public debt limits the scope for further fiscal impetus to boost economic activity.

Svein Gjedrem: The central bank’s instruments Lecture by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME)/BI Norwegian School of Management, Oslo, 6 September 2010. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The lecture is based on the assessments presented at the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 11 August and Monetary Policy Report 2/10. *  *  *  The international financial crisis revealed weaknesses in the financial system and put economic policy to the test. In order to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis, central banks reduced key rates to low levels and increased liquidity supply sharply. In addition, a number of extraordinary measures were implemented. The economic situation The financial crisis had its origins in an abundant supply of credit, market participants who took increasingly higher risk and a lack of oversight on the part of banks, companies and the authorities. The crisis resulted in a sharp downturn in the world economy. Since the crisis, growth has been vigorous in emerging economies while the recovery in western economies has been moderate. Global economic growth at market prices is now expected to be about 3½ this year, and 4½ per cent in purchasing power parity terms. There have been pressure tendencies in some emerging economies, with higher inflation in India and Brazil and rising asset prices in China.
In parallel, it amended the regulatory and supervisory framework to adapt it to the new financial conditions and approximate it with the new international standards. With regard to the latter, we have worked to gradually transfer the supervisory practices from Basel I to Basel II system. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In view of integrating the Albanian banking system with the European one, we have intensified the cooperation with counterparts in other countries. Bank of Albania’s membership into Vienna Initiative 2.0 Steering Committee was particularly important in this regard. This initiative is a platform of cooperation, which brings together the European Commission and other institutions of the European Union, international banking groups that operate in Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe, as well as authorities from home and host countries. Its main objective is to promote coordination between home and host country authorities, to avoid disorderly deleveraging. Given that the Albanian banking system is dominated by cross-border banking groups, decisions from the Vienna Initiative 2.0 have considerable effects on it. Therefore, our participation in the decision-making process is very significant. Albania is the only non-EU member country participating in Vienna 2.0. As such, it also represents the interests of other non-EU countries that are not represented in the Steering Committee. For all these reasons, I believe the involvement of the Bank of Albania in Vienna Initiative 2.0 is an important institutional achievement.

The international component is particularly apparent in that the majority of banks today conduct a considerable amount of business in several EU countries. At the same time, the responsibility for supervision and crisis management remains at the national level. This entails obvious risks of coordination problems and conflicts of interest between countries, which naturally do not promote financial stability. It is therefore necessary that organisations for supervision and crisis management be coordinated within the EU. Lower repo rate in the wake of the crisis The escalating crisis intensifies the downswing in the Swedish economy, which was already apparent. As can be seen in the Monetary Policy Report from 23 October, our growth forecast for next year has been revised sharply downward to the prospect of zero growth. To alleviate the real economic effects of the financial crisis, over a short period the repo rate was cut by one percentage point to the current level of 3.75 per cent. Our forecast for the repo rate shows that in the future it may need to be lowered by an additional half percentage point over the course of the next six months. We can do this without jeopardising the inflation target. It is mainly rising commodity prices in the global market, such as the price of oil and food, that have driven inflation upwards. Now that the price trend for these commodities has broken and turned downwards, the rate of inflation will drop rapidly. At the same time, domestic inflationary pressure will be eased by the weaker economic trend.
I would like to elaborate on these factors to enable a better understanding of the forecasts. The October Inflation Report envisaged food inflation to be 10.5 percent at end-2010, to fall gradually to 7 percent at end-2011 and to remain at these levels throughout the forecast horizon. As I stated at the beginning of my speech, the sharp decline in unprocessed food inflation during the fourth quarter resulted in lower-than-expected food inflation. However, the potential impact of the recent upsurge in agricultural commodity prices on processed food prices led to an upward revision in the assumption for food inflation from 7 percent to 7.5 percent, which had around basis points upside impact on 2011 inflation forecasts (Table 2). BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  In the October Inflation Report, oil prices were assumed to be USD 85 per barrel for 2011 and USD 90 per barrel for 2012 and beyond. Moreover, import prices were assumed to rise gradually over the forecast horizon, increasing by an average percent year-on-year in 2011. Commodity prices have accelerated further since the release of the October Inflation Report due to the ongoing quantitative easing in advanced economies and the strong growth in emerging economies. In this context, in view of the commodity futures prices for the first half of January, we raised our oil price assumption to USD 95 per barrel for 2011 and thereafter (Table 2). Furthermore, again considering the commodity futures prices, we assume that import prices will increase by about 10.9 percent in 2011 (Figure 23).

Durmuş Yılmaz: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Durmuş Yılmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the Inflation Report, Ankara, 25 January 2011. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Welcome to the press conference held to convey the main messages of the January 2011 Inflation Report. The report typically summarizes the economic framework addressed in monetary policy decisions, elaborates global and domestic macroeconomic developments and presents the medium-term inflation forecasts, which have been revised in view of previous quarter developments, along with the monetary policy stance. The report contains eight boxes written in the light of completed and continuing research projects conducted under the aegis of the Central Bank. These boxes include detailed analyses on issues affecting our policies. Considering the extraordinary significance of developments in the global economy for our policies, one of the boxes where the developments in the euro area and the USA are analyzed explains the sensitivities of the peripheral economies of the euro area against the debt crisis. On the other hand, in the second box the reasons for the increase in long-term nominal bond yields in the USA following the second round of quantitative easing is discussed. Besides, two more boxes were prepared aiming to elucidate domestic inflation dynamics. While the first of these examines the reasons for volatility in unprocessed food prices, the second box offers an assessment of Core inflation indicators.
The Group’s task is to work with the financial industry and FinTech players and help foster a conducive ecosystem for innovation. MAS has committed $ million (or $ million) over five years to support the development of a vibrant FinTech ecosystem. Earlier this year, MAS and the National Research Foundation (NRF) set up a FinTech Office to provide a one-stop point-of-contact for all FinTech matters. – If you are a FinTech company interested in finding out what are the grants and assistance schemes available in Singapore or connecting with relevant government agencies to expedite approvals – this is the Office to go to. Creating the infrastructure for an innovation ecosystem is a shared responsibility and joint effort. MAS plays the role of a facilitator, the real work is done by the financial industry and the FinTech community coming together to collaborate and create. Let me highlight the exciting infrastructure initiatives underway: Physical spaces for collaboration and experimentation. Infrastructure for electronic payments. A national “know-your-customer” utility. A blockchain infrastructure for cross-border inter-bank payments. An open API architecture. Physical Spaces for Collaboration and Experimentation A basic element of the FinTech infrastructure is having physical spaces that facilitate collaboration and partnerships among different players. 5/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  Just last week, we saw the launch of LATTICE80, Singapore’s first FinTech innovation village. LATTICE80 offers dedicated physical space in the heart of Singapore financial district for FinTech start-ups to work, connect, and co-create with the financial industry and VC investors.

Thomas Jordan: SNB monetary and investment policy and the impact of the strong Swiss franc Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern, Berne, 28 November 2012. *  *  *  The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). As part of measures to combat the financial and economic crisis, balance sheets of central banks around the world have expanded substantially. In 2009 and 2010, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to combat an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc. On 6 September 2011, it set a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, in order to avert major damage to the Swiss economy. Since then, the SNB has enforced this minimum rate with determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. This monetary policy is reflected in a very substantial expansion in its balance sheet. It has also altered the importance of the currency reserves and had an impact on the SNB’s investment policy. In view of its mandate, monetary policy has priority at the SNB. Investment policy must be subordinated to the requirements of monetary policy. It is at the service of monetary policy and may not limit its room for manoeuvre. At present, enforcement of the minimum exchange rate has the greatest influence in the management of the currency reserves.
Market expectations are very similar to the forecasts included in our latest Report, and also point to CPI inflation fluctuating around our 3% target starting the end of this year. Convergence of inflation rests on two main assumptions. The first one, that our RER will remain relatively stable at its current levels; a level we believe is consistent with fundamentals. And the second one, that the output gap will gradually close by the end of this year (figure 3). Figure 3  CPI Inflation (*)  Core inflation (*)  (annual change, percent)  (annual change, percent)  6  6  6  6  5  5  5  5  4  4  4  4  3  3  3  3  2  2  2  2  1  1  1  1  0  0  0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Mar. 2017 Report  0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Dec. 2016 Report  (*) The grey area, starting from the first quarter of 2017, corresponds to the forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute. 5. Actually, activity has been worse than expected. According to recent data the output gap is currently somewhat larger than we anticipated in December. GDP grew by 1.6% in 2016, in line with what was anticipated then.

Strength of our country is the fact that compared to earlier low-growth periods it has more liquid external funds available. At the same time, the financial sector is healthy and non-performing loans have diminished over time. Reforms currently under discussion, particularly a New General Banking Law, aim to bolster resilience and improve banking capital adequacy ratios (figure 10). Figure 10 Regulatory Capital  NPL  (percent of risk-weighted assets)  (percent of total loans)  Latin America (*)  Chile  18  18  15  15  12  12  9  9  6  6  3  3  0  0 10  11  12  13  14  15  16  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 10  11  12  13  14  15  16  (*) Shows the region’s simple average. Source: Global Financial Stability Report, IMF. The medium- and long-term outlook 19. The Chilean economy has endured a long period of slow growth, while its potential growth has dropped to a range between 2.5% and 3%, i.e., less than estimated a decade ago (4% to 5%). In principle, this change is explained by: (a) a smaller contribution of the accumulation of productive factors, inherent to a maturing economy; (b) a drop in gross fixed capital formation that has lasted several years; (c) reduced mining productivity; and (d) a limited contribution of productivity growth in the other sectors. 20.
In closing, I want to reiterate that external auditors have truly been one of our key partners in the quest for greater financial stability. Thailand’s financial industry is currently in the midst of structural changes with the implementation of our Financial Sector Master Plan. One of the goals of the master plan is to promote greater competition, which in turn, may result in the evolution of bigger and more complex financial institutions. Against this background, our supervisors will need to fully embrace a risk-based supervisory philosophy and its focus on the quality of internal controls and risk management systems. Therefore, our relationship with external auditors will become even more important in the years ahead as we seek to strengthen banks’ risk management systems and enhance fnancial stability. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 55/2004

The fact that CPI inflation was far below the target can thus be seen as the result of a deliberate monetary policy from the autumn of 2008. GDP fell by 4.9 per cent in 2009. This is the largest fall in Swedish GDP in a single year in modern times. Average unemployment increased by approximately 2.2 percentage points during the year and amounted to 8.4 per cent in 2009. Both employment and the number of  BIS Review 32/2010  11  hours worked fell significantly. The reason that Sweden was so hard hit by the global crisis is that the Swedish economy is highly dependent on exports. The effect on GDP was reinforced by the fact that the households increased their saving. Companies also sold from stock to a great extent during the year, thus reducing investments in stock and contributing to the fall in GDP. The impact of the financial crisis surprised all the forecasters The turmoil on the financial markets has been part of the picture and has influenced monetary policy and the forecasts since 2007. It nevertheless came as a surprise that the situation would deteriorate as dramatically as it did in the autumn of 2008 and result in such a dramatic fall in production around the world. Neither the Riksbank nor other analysts predicted the strength of the global financial crisis and how much it would affect inflation and the development of the real economy.