samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Table 2 International scenario assumptions 2013  2014 (f)  Jun.14 Report  Sep.14 Report  Dec.14 Report  Growth  2015 (f)  Jun.14 Report  Sep.14 Report  Dec.14 Report  2016 (f)  Sep.14 Report  Dec.14 Report  (annual change, percent)  Trading partners' GDP  3.5  3.6  3.4  3.2  3.9  3.8  3.5  3.9  3.9  World GDP at PPP  3.1  3.3  3.2  3.2  3.7  3.7  3.5  4.1  3.9  United States Eurozone Japan China India Rest of Asia (excl. Japan, China and Ind Latin America (excl. Chile)  2.2 -0.4 1.6 7.7 5.0 3.9 2.3  2.4 1.0 1.6 7.3 5.4 4.1 2.0  2.1 0.8 1.0 7.3 5.4 4.0 1.7  2.3 0.8 0.3 7.4 5.6 3.6 1.1  3.1 1.7 1.0 7.2 6.2 4.4 3.0  3.0 1.7 1.5 7.2 6.2 4.5 2.6  3.0 1.0 1.3 7.1 6.3 4.3 1.9  3.2 1.8 1.2 7.0 6.5 4.8 3.3  3.1 1.5 1.4 6.9 6.5 4.8 3.0  LME copper price $ Brent oil price $  332 109  310 108  315 106  311 99  (levels) 290 103  305 104  295 70  300 101  285 75  Terms of trade  -3.2  -0.5  0.0  -1.1  1.7  -0.5  -2.1  (annual change, percent) -1.5  -0.8  (f) Forecast.

Moreover, the mark-to-market completed by mark to model of a wide range of assets and liabilities has also contributed to this widespread focus on immediate financial performances. This focus on short-term performance can translate into additional volatility in the price discovery process: indeed, the shorter the investment horizon of market participants, the larger the impact on prices of any new information. Mimetic behaviour is by no means a new phenomenon on financial markets. However, technological developments on markets may have gradually reinforced this type of behaviour. The spread of benchmarking, which allows fund managers and clients to measure performance against that of other funds, together with the growing competition within the sector, appears to have favoured such “herd behaviour”. Some operators have come to the conclusion that it is better to be wrong along with everybody else, rather than take the risk of being right alone. A striking example of rational mimetic behaviour is the influence that hedge funds enjoyed, a few years ago, as "opinion leaders" and trend makers. The second set of factors relates to new market techniques or financial engineering devices. Here are a few examples of some of these mechanisms: •  The inclusion of contingent or trigger clauses in loan and bond contracts. These clauses provide creditors with a form of insurance since the level of interest rate paid by debtors increases when specific trigger events occurs (typically the downgrading of the debtor by rating agencies). These clauses were designed to help borrowers access financing at lower rates.
NCBs can often recruit and retain good staff by offering attractive salaries and other advantages. Second, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke 2 and others argue that information gathered in the conduct of supervision provides a necessary input for the monetary policy. Having updated knowledge about the financial system is also important if the central bank is requested to provide liquidity support in a crisis situation. Although such information can be summoned from a supervisory authority outside the NCB, the NCB will be in a better position if it is already familiar with the situation through its in-house supervision. A similar argument is that the central bank is often running or overseeing the large value payments system. Thus the central bank will be able to spot potential liquidity problems at an early stage and can take timely remedial action if it has the supervisory powers to do so. Arguments against retaining bank supervision in the NCB But there are also counterarguments to conducting supervision in the NCB. Some would reverse Bernanke’s argument and say that just because the NCB is responsible for monetary policy, payments system oversight and liquidity support in a crisis, it should not be responsible for daily supervision. An NCB with such responsibilities might run into a conflict between the objectives of monetary policy and of supervision. Simply put, the NCB might be tempted to keep interest rates excessively low in order to  2  Held at the Allied Social Science Association Annual Meeting, 9 January http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/speeches/2007/20070105/default.htm  BIS Review 49/2007  2007.

Conclusion When I look back at monetary policy since the current monetary-policy regime, with a floating exchange rate and an inflation target, was introduced at the beginning of 1993, I think that it has on the whole functioned fairly well. One might possibly think that monetary policy was too tight in 1994–1995 when the Riksbank raised the repo rate at the same time as the budget consolidation work was holding back inflation. However, it was important to bring down inflation and inflation expectations to a much lower level than in the 1970s and 1980s. One might also think that the assumption of an unchanged repo rate that was used as a basis for the forecasts during the first years was too simple. On the other hand, one has to see this more as a part of the communication strategy that was being followed then. And it worked. Inflation expectations fell and have been established close to the target. I also think that monetary policy has worked well during the six years, 2006–2011, that I have been a member of the Riksbank’s Executive Board. CPI and CPIF inflation have on average been 1.7 and 1.8 per cent a year respectively. This is somewhat lower than the inflation target. However, given that the world has undergone the deepest recession since the 1930s during this period, it should nevertheless be regarded as a good result.
In 1999, the Fed adapted its post-meeting statement to communicate more information about the outlook for the economy and the implications for monetary policy by disclosing a so-called bias. In December 2004, the FOMC decided to advance the release of the minutes to a date three weeks after the meeting, and in doing so provided a more timely picture of the FOMC’s rationale for its decision, its view of the economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy going forward. In January 2005, the FOMC added a year to its semiannual public forecast of the outlook for growth and inflation, and by extending the horizon the forecast, provided greater insight into the inflation preferences of members of the committee. These changes in the transparency of the conduct of U.S. monetary policy have been motivated by a judgment that monetary policy works more effectively if the central bank is more explicit about its objectives, about its view of the outlook for growth and inflation, and about the framework it uses to make policy choices. Since monetary policy operates through its effects not just on the overnight inter-bank rate but on expectation about the future path of that rate and other asset prices, greater disclosure about the Fed’s forecast and the rationale for its decisions should help financial market prices reflect more accurately the future stance of monetary policy and make monetary policy more effective.

.” and affording “the means of discounting commercial paper.” Decision-making authority was vested in an institution structured to bring a diversity of largely independent perspectives to the table, for many of the same reasons that most governments vest monetary policy authority today with committees rather than individuals. The Federal Reserve was set up with a balance of public and private perspectives, drawn from across the country – a structure designed to avoid concentrating too much power in Washington, and also to provide a counterweight to New York. This body was comprised of a group of seven governors appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate – five governors and the Secretary of the Treasury, the Comptroller of the Currency – and the heads (then called Governors) of 12 reserve banks. The terms of the Washington-based “Board of Governors” were long and staggered, giving them an extended horizon for policy making more  consistent with the time frame in which monetary policy works and with the long-term interests of the nation than might be shaped by the electoral calendar. Reserve Bank presidents were appointed by their boards of directors. The Reserve Banks, spread across the country, were established as individual corporate entities, owned by banks, with individual boards of directors, a majority of which were elected by the bank shareholders.
Bandid Nijathaworn: Regional financial supervision – challenges and the way forward for Asia Remarks by Mr Bandid Nijathaworn, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at a conference on “Macroeconomic and financial stability in Asian emerging markets”, organised by the Central Bank of Malaysia and the Asian Development Bank Institute, Kuala Lumpur, 4 August 2010. *  *  *  First, let me thank Bank Negara Malaysia and the Asian Development Bank Institute for the invitation. It is a pleasure to be here. Since the first session this morning, we have covered many important issues facing Asian Emerging Markets, and I can not agree more that they are the important policy issues for Asia in the period ahead. In this concluding panel on coordination of regulatory practices, I want to make a few observations on the challenges and the way forward for Asia, focusing on cross-border financial regulation and supervision. A good way to begin is to note that the global financial crisis not only offers important lessons for monetary policy and financial regulation, it also points to the need to further strengthen policy coordination on cross-border financial supervision and resolution amongst regulators in the region, as well as between home and host regulators, in order for us to be able to react better to the risk and the global-wide impact of a systemic financial distress.

BIS Review 47/2001  5  There is substantial uncertainty associated with developments in Japan. Industrial output and exports have declined. The financial sector is struggling in the face of large losses and poor performance, and the general price level is falling. In the euro area the picture is mixed. Growth is solid in countries like France, Finland and Ireland. Germany has a large internationally exposed industrial sector, which is feeling the effects of the 1 slowdown in growth in the US and Asia. In a survey , growth forecasts for Germany have been revised downwards this year from 3 per cent a few months ago to a good 2 per cent. Economic growth prospects for Sweden and the UK are also weaker than a few months ago. However, the easing of monetary and fiscal policy in many countries should contribute to a pick-up in growth and reduce the risk of a pronounced international downturn. The Norwegian economy will be particularly hard hit by an international downturn if this translates into a sharp fall in oil prices and other commodity prices that are important for Norwegian exports. This would lead to lower export revenues and slower growth. Employment would also be affected. An international downturn would also lead to lower prices for imported goods and services and thereby reduce domestic inflation. If other Nordic countries are negatively affected, this will have an impact on the supply of labour in Norway since the Nordic labour market has become increasingly integrated.
No decision has yet been made regarding its issuance or its final design, but we launched the investigation phase of the project last year in order to ensure we are prepared in the event that future developments warrant its launch. Our work is now focused on deepening the conceptual analysis by assessing the different design options, as well as the distribution model. The first step was to identify the use cases to focus on, namely those that better support the policy objectives of a digital euro and facilitate network effects. Payments in e-commerce and physical stores, as well as person-to-person payments are, clearly, natural candidates. They either represent important market segments or have a clear potential to grow, and they rely heavily either on cash or on non-European providers and technologies. Payments between governments and individuals have also been considered a priority, given their potential synergies with the aforementioned ones. In any case, focusing now on these payment segments does not mean ruling out others, but simply leaving them for future stages. The next step of the analysis has covered what we consider to be the foundational design options. They refer to the way a digital euro should be transferred, the level of privacy and the tools to control excessive use and, hence, limit its impact on the stability of the financial system.

Shanghai Futures Exchange (“SHFE”), one of China’s largest commodity futures exchanges, established a representative office in Singapore in June this year. Shanghai International Energy Exchange (“INE”), an international futures exchange set up in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, has been authorised by MAS as a Recognised Market Operator in November 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  this year. SHFE and INE chose Singapore to be their first overseas outpost, given Singapore’s position as a key global commodities trading and financial hub, and an important link in the BRI. b. Fullerton Fund Management and APS Asset Management received their private fund management approvals in June 2017 and July 2018 respectively, allowing these asset managers to offer onshore investment products to institutional and high net worth investors in China. c. UOB has reinforced its commitment to China by opening a new headquarters building in Shanghai in November this year. UOB Plaza is the first Grade-A office building owned by a foreign bank in the Lujiazui Financial District. FinTech Collaboration between Shanghai and Singapore  Fourth, nurturing a conducive ecosystem for FinTech companies and start-ups. Together, Shanghai and Singapore can increase the potential for technology and innovative solutions that increase efficiency, improve risk management, create new 9  opportunities, and improve people’s lives. We are pleased that FinTech companies and payment service providers from Shanghai and Singapore are entering into commercial arrangements, bolstering FinTech linkages between both cities. a.
The El Niño phenomenon for example, affected many developing countries that are dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean. Last year, it left millions of people hungry and in need of food aid; water shortages across Southeast Asia; and higher food prices globally. Closer to home, thousands have been displaced after the northern state of Penang was hit by the worst flood in more than 20 years. These are indications that despite progress made in regulating global emissions of greenhouse gases over the past decades, we need to do more to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Moving on to the second challenge – growing inequality. Globally, the benefits of economic growth have been uneven. In reality, not all members of society have fully benefitted from the growth. While some have gained, many have been dislocated – feeling that they have been left behind. Today, global inequality is at its highest since the 19th century. Recent studies show that the richest 1% now owns half of the world’s wealth combined. In stark comparison, 70% of the 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  world’s adult population holds only 3% of the global wealth. Globally, continued widening of the inequality gap would be detrimental to economic growth and social progress in the long-run. Inequality is a threat to growth if it leads to those in the low income segment suffering poor health and low productivity; and to struggle in obtaining quality education.

Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: Islamic finance – building solutions for a sustainable future Speech by Mr Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 3rd Annual Symposium on Islamic Finance "Islamic Finance - Building Solutions for a Sustainable Future", Kuala Lumpur, 12 December 2017. * * * It is an honour for me to be here today at this 3rd Annual Symposium on Islamic Finance. We are gathered here to engage and affirm our vision towards realising the potential of Islamic finance in supporting the Sustainable Development Goals that form the new global development blueprint. Time is of the essence in meeting the goals and targets by 2030. We have to collectively strategise our actions to bring them to life. How we balance economic prosperity, social equity and environmental responsibility matters greatly to the world. It is without a doubt that we cannot have continued prosperity without sustainability. In my remarks this morning, I will touch on the current global economic environment and challenges facing the world that point to the need for us to promote fiscal, social and environmental sustainability. I will also discuss the imperatives that can strengthen the role of Islamic finance in promoting inclusive growth, reducing inequality and accelerating poverty reduction. The past 50 years has been a period of extraordinary global economic expansion. The world economy expanded sixfold and average per capita income nearly tripled.
However, we are still far from achieving the employment levels prevailing before the crisis, given the enormous impact that it had on our labour market. Unlike in previous upturns, the growth of activity and employment is proving to be compatible with the ongoing correction of the economy’s imbalances. The more balanced and sustainable nature of the current recovery is closely related to the factors that have made it possible, some of which should be considered temporary while others may have a more persistent impact. I would like to refer to two central issues to explain this more balanced growth: the improvement in competitiveness and the normalisation of financial conditions. Competitiveness improvements One of the most important changes in the functioning of the Spanish economy since the crisis has been the recovery in external competitiveness. Cost and price adjustments have stimulated exports and have also enabled our productive sectors to compete better in their domestic markets with imports. This has led to an increase in the demand for resources, driving business investment decisions and encouraging job creation. The increase in employment, favoured by moderate wage growth, has led to a significant recovery in household consumption. Unlike in previous upswings, the moderate growth of prices and costs is helping to ensure that the increase in economic activity is not achieved at the expense of a deterioration in the external balance.

Finally, it may also be said that, from a medium and long-term perspective, population ageing exerts upward pressure on items such as healthcare, care for the elderly and, in particular, pensions. In this latter case, the reforms introduced in recent years, such as raising the retirement age, the definition of a factor of sustainability linking the initial pension to the increase in life expectancy, and the new mechanism that makes the annual revision of pensions conditional upon balance between the system’s revenue and expenses, with ceilings and floors, have  7/8  contributed to containing the increase in expenditure and to shoring up the long-term sustainability of the pensions system. That said, in the absence of increased revenues, the adjustment mechanism would rest mainly on a reduction in the average pension relative to the average wage, which is known as the “replacement rate”. With a view to the future, it would be advisable to set an “objective replacement rate”, on the basis of which system revenues should be adjusted to ensure their sustainability. It would moreover be desirable if the reform strategy chosen were to lead to an increase in the system’s transparency and a stronger relationship between contributions and benefits, maintaining automatic adjustment mechanisms that ensure financial equilibrium. Challenges for the European Union governance framework I should like to conclude with a very brief reference to the risks arising in Europe and globally too from political positions and currents of opinion contrary to globalisation and free trade.
A study from Rogalandsforskning1 shows that there are more newly established businesses in the Trondheim area than in any other urban centres in the country. The business sector in Trondheim is technologically highly advanced. Norges Bank’s regional network reports firm growth in the retail sector and the household service sector. Both manufacturing and corporate services report that the trough has been reached or passed. Activity in the construction industry has also stabilised and the number of new orders is edging up. There is considerable uncertainty about the strength and duration of the upturn. The decline in employment is slowing, but few in the public or private sector report plans to increase employment. The supply of qualified labour is still good and is increasing somewhat in all sectors. The regional network also reports that cost reductions in the business sector, especially in services, are now generating results in the form of improved profitability. The focus appears to have shifted to some extent from cost cutting to strategies for boosting income. Both the public and private sectors appear to be somewhat more positive about investment plans, but are still not signalling significant growth in investment over the next year. Lower interest rates have contributed to more positive expectations concerning future developments. Few market participants believe that there has been any real impact yet, but many expect an improvement in the near future.

We recognize this, even as we encourage firms to put in place stronger and more sophisticated systems more commensurate with the complexity of the risks they are taking. 2  BIS Review 36/2004  •  Comprehensive aggregation of credit exposure: The most sophisticated among large diversified financial institutions have well-developed systems for aggregating credit exposure, with a common methodology and results available relatively quickly, across the full range of transactions and business lines they engage in with a single entity or groups of entities with correlated risks. •  Stress testing and scenario analysis: Firms at the leading edge have moved well beyond reliance on “value-at-risk” complemented by stress tests of discrete shocks. They employ stress tests built around more exacting, forward-looking scenarios integrating large moves in a number of variables, more tailored to the risk profile of the firm and current market conditions, and the reactions of other market participants and counterparties. •  Counterparty credit risk management: The most sophisticated firms use much more careful and sophisticated approaches for measuring potential future exposure, and they analyze how exposures may respond in conditions of significant market stress. With respect to hedge fund exposure in particular, the leading firms employ comprehensive evaluation of the risk profile of the hedge fund to set credit thresholds and terms and a more disciplined approach to setting sufficiently high levels of initial margin. •  Measuring and managing interest rate risk: Leading institutions assess their exposure to interest rate risk in a comprehensive manner across the firm’s business lines.