samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
And capital adequacy is of course only one aspect of prudential regulation, with other aspects of risk management such as liquidity management and systems and controls also being vitally important. The Basel Committee has now of course explicitly recognised that the formal regulatory minimum capital framework is only one pillar in the edifice of bank soundness. It has to be complemented by supervisors individually reviewing the capital adequacy of banks in the light of a wide range of risk factors - the second pillar of the proposed new Accord - and by market discipline on banks, the third pillar. On the question of why we focus on banks, it would be difficult to overstate the importance of a stable banking system to economic health and growth. Banks play a crucial role in intermediating savings and credit and they are at the heart of the payments system. Most firms in most economies remain heavily reliant on banks for finance, and even in economies where a significant number of firms can turn to the capital markets for finance, banks retain important roles as providers of payment facilities, short-term credit, and backup liquidity. In less advanced economies, their role is even more dominant, to the extent that a number of full-blown macro-economic crises have had their roots in weak banking systems. Changes to the Basel Accord As I have said, the capital framework for banks is currently under review by the Basel Committee. It is worth reminding ourselves what this framework consists of.

Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, I dedicated most of my last year’s speech arguing that the stable Denar exchange rate is still the best solution for the Macedonian economy. In the public debate concerning this issue last year, on many occasions, I presented additional arguments that underpin my view. On this occasion I will discuss the two theses recently presented by the advocates of floating Denar exchange rate. The first thesis is that the floating exchange rate will ensure more relaxed monetary policy, and accordingly, higher economic growth. The second thesis is that the Denar exchange rate is not realistic, i.e. it is overrated. Yet, so far, I still have not heard any explanation of how would the floating exchange rate relax the monetary policy, nor arguments supporting the view that the Denar is overrated. Considering the first thesis, note that the exchange rate regime does not determine whether the monetary policy will be restrictive or relaxed. You could have floating rate and restrictive monetary policy, or fixed exchange rate and relaxed monetary policy. What is important for the monetary policy is whether there are imbalances in the economy or not. Just because of the absence of imbalances in the Macedonian economy, as I elaborated at the beginning, we can afford relaxed monetary policy. Conversely, due to the nature of our economy, the floating exchange rate would fuel uncertainty and create imbalances and high inflation, the alleviation of which would require extremely restrictive monetary policy.
For its part, the European Central Bank postponed the start of monetary normalization and announced new initiatives for liquidity provision. Chinese authorities have announced new fiscal and monetary packages in addition to those adopted during 2018. Nonetheless, global financial markets remain susceptible to potentially negative news, as reflected in the tensions at the end of 2018 and at the statistical close of this Report. Thus, there have been ups and downs in appetite for risk, capital flows and emerging currencies. The exchange rate in Chile has also been volatile. Considering the average of the ten days prior to the statistical closing, the real exchange rate (RER) is somewhat below its average of the last fifteen and twenty years. As a working assumption, the baseline scenario foresees that the RER will return to these levels during the projection horizon. The baseline scenario of the Monetary Policy Report states that during 2019 and 2020 the world economy will grow 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively, less than the 3.7% average of the two previous years and the December Report’s forecast (3.5% and 3.3%, respectively). Chile’s business partners will show the same expansion rates in that period (3.6% in 2017-2018). These projections assume that the US will grow at rates closer to 2%, gradually approaching trend growth. In the case of China, it is projected to grow 6.1% this year and 6% in 2020, less than in previous years and consistent with the process of achieving lower expansion rates as the economy grows in size.

The aggregate demand is also affected by the elevated growth rates of raw materials and component inventories. Firstly, companies make up for the drop in inventories incurred during the pandemic and as a result of disrupted logistical chains. Secondly, in light of the last year’s experience companies are seeking to accumulate more inventories to insure against possible disruptions in supplies, as well as further price increases. These processes concern a broad range of production chains rather than a narrow group of goods. The structure of demand is also changing, as a result of changes in people’s way of life due to the pandemic. Neither the sustainability nor the duration of this process is clear so far. Yet, it evidently creates bottlenecks on the supply side. For instance, massive work and study from home spurred a sharp increase in the need for telecommunications followed by a considerable increase in the demand for microchips. Online orders require much more packaging materials. A pick up in demand for real estate is in part associated with the desire to reach comfortable conditions for working from home. Wishing to support their economies, many countries are expanding infrastructure projects; all this also influences the increase in demand for construction materials and metals. It is still difficult for businesses to assess which part of the elevated demand is temporary and which — sustainable. They need time to make decisions about investing in new production facilities.
The reason is that a crisis in a bank can very quickly spread to the rest of the financial system, which can in turn have very costly consequences for the economy as a whole. I shall explain how this comes about. The banks’ traditional business model is to function as an intermediary between, on the one hand households and companies needing credit to buy homes or to get business projects started, and on the other hand households and companies wanting to hold money in accounts for transactions or savings. The banks thus help to transform savings into investment in the economy and contribute to more efficient mediation of payments. This is of course beneficial to the economy as a whole. At the same time, this business model entails significant risks. To put it simply, this is because the bank's assets consist of long-term loans that cannot be quickly and easily converted into cash, while the bank's funding is largely shortterm and volatile. Normally, this does not entail any problems, but if for some reason doubts were to arise with regard to the bank’s ability to pay, the funding could be withdrawn very quickly, and the bank could be forced to default on its payments. Problems in one bank can have serious domino effects As the banks are often interlinked with one another and often have similar types of exposure, problems in one bank can very quickly have serious domino effects in the rest of the financial system.

The role of research in the monetary policy decision-making process becomes even more important under the inflation targeting regime that the Bank of Albania will fully adopt in the near future. Economic literature defines inflation targeting framework, inter alia, as “comprehensive and multi-dimensional information, analyses and statistics”. As in many central banks which adopt the inflation targeting regime, the Bank of Albania has oriented its resources for economic research, mainly to understanding the process of inflation and of its forecasting, and to understanding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The building of a macroeconomic model for the Albanian economy is of special importance to the economic research of the Bank of Albania. Moreover, issues related to the real, foreign, financial and the fiscal sectors, as well as other issues related to the improvement of economic statistics are in focus. Undoubtedly, the constant improvement of economic research, of their ethics, quality and significance to monetary policy should be of high priority. The Bank of Albania is conscious of the fact that research in the abovementioned areas should be further consolidated. Dear friends! Allow me to state my opinion that from the strategic point of view the consolidation of research requires the improvement of economic data, the enhancement of cooperation between the public administration institutions and the academia, as well as between various countries, and the absorption and increase of human capacities in this area. Following my speech I would like to briefly explore these three issues. Economic research uses the economic data as its core input.
An increase in the capital stock is necessary to achieve faster growth today and to eliminate inflationary pressure;  –  reduce the constraints on labour. In an economy, in which 42% of businesses are at present indicating that they are encountering serious recruitment difficulties, especially for skilled labour, it is necessary to not only step up training and education efforts, but also to accept the extensive use of overtime in all sectors where there is a labour shortage. Moreover, the increase in Europe’s employment ratio from 61% today to 70% in ten years time, decided upon at the European Council meeting in Lisbon in order to expand the labour force, is particularly opportune and reveals a profound change in attitude;  –  actively seek productivity improvements, which lie at the very heart of economic growth. Now is the time to embrace technical progress, the digital revolution, new information and communication technologies, biotechnology and material sciences. In a French and a European economy characterised up to now by lower productivity growth than in the United States since 1995, this openness to technical progress and rapid productivity enhancement is a crucial factor if we are to achieve our ambitions of faster growth today, durably low inflation and robust, sustainable growth. BIS Review 55/2000  4

To achieve this, after raising interest rates to close to the "neutral interest rate" of 2% in December, we are now embarking on the second phase towards monetary stabilisation: ideally, it would be good to reach the right "terminal rate" by next summer, but it is still too early to say what that level will be. We need to remain pragmatic and to be guided by observed data, including on core inflation, without getting fixated on overly mechanical rate hikes. We will then be prepared to remain at this terminal rate for as long as necessary: the sprint to raise interest rates in 2022 is now becoming more of a long-distance race, and the duration will count at least as much as the level. In parallel, we shall continue to focus on maintaining financial stability, helped by the strong resilience of French banks and insurers. In Europe, 2023 needs to be the year when Basel III is transposed into EU law and the Solvency II review is completed. Regarding crypto-assets, the disruption seen in 2022 is nourishing one basic conviction: France should switch as soon as possible to the compulsory authorisation of DASPs (digital asset service providers) rather than simply requiring their registration. And this needs to happen well before MiCA enters into force, to create the necessary framework of trust. 2) Less protection and more adaptation. The government can cushion the energy shock temporarily, but it cannot make it disappear.
In this respect, the guiding philosophy of the SAC has always been to formulate a collective ijtihad or Shariah rulings that are comprehensive, inclusive and pragmatic, without sacrificing the sacred objectives of Shariah. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  I very much believe in the importance of embracing diversity in Shariah interpretations within the academic community. Students who are exposed to the teachings of all schools of thought from the very beginning would get to appreciate the intellectual differences and value the flexibility arising from differing opinions. This provides an opportunity to open and sharpen their minds and widen their thinking by exploring issues from multidimensional perspectives. Through this way, the talent that we nurture and produce would not only be equipped with Shariah know-hows, but also with intellectual courage that can articulate contemporary Shariah issues in the context of domestic customs and business environment. I would like to expand my thoughts on the two additional areas that, if pursued could further enhance stakeholder gains from the Educator’s Manual: •  First, is the reconfiguration of academic programmes to nurture talent with enhanced employability; and  •  Second, strategising talent deployment to reduce time to competency. Reconfiguration of academic programmes Continuous enhancements of curriculums in universities are critical to increase the employability factor of our students. These include reconfiguration of the academic programmes at universities and enhancements to the learning tools and methods of teaching.

Managing their liabilities in such a way as to ensure that these vital services continue to be provided, and citizens view that they are getting appropriate value in exchange for their taxes is a daunting challenge. I am happy to see such a distinguished group assembled here at the Bank to address this challenge. Good luck in your work and I look forward to learning of the results of today’s discussions. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
If that were to occur, that would be a troublesome development that would complicate the pursuit of our dual mandate of high employment and low and stable inflation Because we have an Federal Open Market Committee meeting next Tuesday, I will not comment today on the implications of the economic outlook for monetary policy. Outlook for the region and Queens Now, let me turn briefly to the situation here in the city and in Queens, in particular. While the national economic outlook improved considerably during the latter part of 2010 and into early this year, growth in New York City’s economy appears to have slowed a bit. The regional economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have developed a composite economic index for New York City. It incorporates measures such as employment, unemployment and income, and can serve as a barometer of the state of the local economy. Based on this measure, the city’s economic activity, which had declined fairly sharply throughout much of 2008 and all of 2009, rebounded at an encouraging pace in the first half of 2010. Growth slowed in the second half of the year, but recently released employment data point to some pickup in the city’s economy in early 2011 and suggest that the local economic recovery remains on track. Over the past year, employment in the city has expanded fairly strongly in a number of key industries, including finance, professional and business services, education and health, and tourism, including air transportation.

The coast is not completely clear – the healing process in the aftermath of the crisis takes time and there are still several areas of vulnerability and weakness. In particular, housing activity remains unusually weak and home prices have begun to soften again in many parts of the country. State and local government finances remain under stress, and this is likely to lead to further spending cuts, tax increases, or job losses in this sector that will offset at least a part of the federal fiscal stimulus. And we cannot rule out the possibility of further shocks from abroad. For example, higher oil prices cut into household purchasing power, and the situation in the Middle East and Africa remains uncertain and dynamic. Also, we cannot ignore the risks stemming from the longer-term fiscal challenges that we face in the United States. But in the near-term, the most immediate domestic problems may recede rather than become more prevalent. On the housing side, stronger job growth should lead to more household formation. For example, more young people will be able to move out of their parents’ homes when they get jobs. This trend should provide more support to housing demand. And anxieties about the large overhang of unsold homes represented by the foreclosure pipeline may overstate the magnitude of the excess supply of housing. Families that have lost their homes through foreclosures are likely to seek new homes as their income permits, even though many may re-enter the housing market as renters rather than buyers.
In trend prices, in 2012 the current account would post a deficit of somewhat less than 6% of GDP, not very different from that of 2011. We foresee y-o-y CPI inflation hovering around 4% well into the second half of this year, to later converge to 3% and remain there until the end of the projection horizon, this time the first quarter of 2014. Y-o-y changes in core measures will continue to rise in the coming months, and will converge to 3% more slowly than the CPI (figure 1). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  This foreseen trajectory is based on the assumption that the propagation of supply shocks to other prices will occur according to historic patterns. It also assumes that wages will be adjusted on the bases of productivity and the inflation target, and that the RER will not change much. On the fiscal side, the baseline scenario estimates that the structural deficit will converge to 1% of GDP towards the end of the current Administration, as announced by the authority and in conformity with the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Finally, it uses as a working assumption that the MPR will follow a path comparable to the one that can be derived from the prices of financial assets observed at the statistical cutoff of this Report (figure 2). The baseline scenario reflects the events that the Board believes to be the most likely to occur with the information at hand at the statistical cutoff date of the Report.

With the perspective that the passage of time accords, history will acknowledge JeanClaude’s leadership and his ability to maintain the appropriate degree of flexibility needed to respond to the crisis. These qualities were key to ensuring that the ECB and the Eurosystem were up to the task, contributing decisively, through the discharge of the responsibilities legally entrusted to each, to maintaining financial stability across the euro area. Thank you very much. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
But, this evolution of digital money is about the technology of delivery; it has not ripped up the script of inside and outside money. The question for us all should therefore focus most on is whether we think there will be a demand for retail digital money in the future? And, here we should not suffer a failure of imagination. If we think the demand will exist, what form should it take? I think it would be preferable not to disturb the existence of both inside and outside money and the broad balance between them. But, this requires a number of things to happen and questions to be answered. It requires banks to be more active in thinking about digital commercial bank money and not leave it to CBDC. In any event, as we have set out in the CP, we think in this new world a central bank digital currency is likely to be needed to anchor the value of all forms of money, including new digital ones and to ensure the maximum opportunity for innovation in payments services. Moving on, let me now point to an area where we are at risk of contradicting ourselves. I said that assured value was a key principle of digital money. How does this fit with the idea that we could resolve failed banks and allow deposits (inside money) to take a haircut? One answer is that it depends on the size of the deposit above a certain threshold.

Now, onto this scene lands crypto and digital money. Note, I did not describe crypto – in its unbacked form – as money. It isn't. For money to fulfil its function as a means of  2/6  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  payment it requires stability of value. This is clearly not true of unbacked crypto. It could be a bet, a highly speculative investment or a collectible, but note that it has no intrinsic value, so buyer be very aware. More interesting is the creation of so-called 'stable coins' or digital currency, which purport at least to be money as a means of payment. But, as we have seen, they do not have assured value, and in the work we have done at the Bank of England we have concluded that the public should expect assured value in digital money, and confidence in this is needed to underpin financial stability. For stable coins to function as money they will need to have the characteristics of, and be regulated as, inside money. Meanwhile, a lot of work is going on to assess the future of digital money, including Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Digital money is not new. Digital money in the form of commercial bank deposits and commercial bank reserves at the central bank have existed for many decades. What is new is the idea of broadly available retail digital money.
When choosing the level of interest rate risk, we have given priority to long-term good earnings over small, annual negative effects on results. The fact that we have chosen to accept some interest rate risk and credit risk is because these are not of the same order as currency risk and thereby do not comprise the same direct threat to capital as currency exposure. All in all, we are driven by the same fundamental endeavours as other asset managers, namely to generate earnings for our owners. The major difference concerns the limitations that our statutory tasks entail for our asset management activities. Thank you. BIS Review 33/2006  5

Three years later, Banco de Portugal came on board thanks to Mr Rui Pimentel, to jointly create a conference that certainly grows into a recognizable brand name, set with the aim to inform of all relevant payment-related matters, to share knowledge and to educate, to influence and last but not least to network and socialize. Payment systems and market infrastructures – why this topic in the first place? There is no doubt that payment systems comprise vital part of countries’ economic and financial infrastructures. However, it was only the last two decades or so when this issue gained in topicality, concerning both, service providers and policymakers and central banks. This is because of the new global landscape, which shaped by the streams of globalization, the dramatically rising volumes of payments and the advancing fintech innovation has returned payment systems to the focus once again. With their safety, resilience and efficiency becoming critical to the financial stability and the well-functioning of the economy as a whole. We started this Conference as domestically oriented, having the domestic financial sector as target audience, to later on move to expand internationally from Southeastern and Central and Eastern Europe to the Black Sea Region and the Middle East with Northern Africa countries joining us lately. Allow me to extend my sincere appreciation to the Vice Governor Maja Kadievska Vojnovic and to Igor Velichkovski, Head of the Payment Systems Department within the NBRM for successfully turning this conference into a truly international one.