samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Forces of change profoundly influencing the Asia-Pacific region Speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Asian-Pacific Association of Banking Institutes Conference 2013, hosted by the Institute of Bankers Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, 7 October 2013. *  *  *  It is with great pleasure that I welcome you to the 2013 Asian-Pacific Association of Banking Institutes conference hosted by Institute of Bankers Malaysia. I would also like extend a special welcome to all overseas delegates, Selamat Datang, as we say in our national language. Given the greater economic and financial integration that is taking place today, it is indeed timely for institutions of learning that focus on the financial sector to come together to deliberate on contemporary issues and trends affecting the region, and its implication on talent needs and development going forward. My remarks today will focus on the forces of change that are profoundly influencing the economies of the Asia Pacific region, and by extension, our financial systems, as well as some thoughts on the implications of these changes to the banking industry, with a particular focus on human capital development. I want to touch on three forces that are reshaping the banking industry across Asia and the Pacific. The first is on emerging markets’ and in particular Asia’s emergence as a dynamic centre for the global economy.

These forecasts also highlight that much of the financing needed to support investment in infrastructure that supports environmentally sustainable growth is likely to be generated not in advanced economies but in emerging economies such as China. The Bank’s response  So, how, as a central bank, are we responding to the financial risks which climate change presents? Viewed through the prism of our objectives, the Bank’s response has two core elements. The first relates to our micro-prudential objectives to promote the safety and soundness of the financial institutions for which we are responsible – banks and insurance firms - and involves our engaging with these firms on climate-related risks through prudential supervision. Our work initially started by examining the impact of climate change on the UK insurance industry. General insurers in particular are at the front line of managing the physical risks from climate change, such as those from storms and floods. The impact of these physical risks was the focus of the report the PRA published in 2  2015, alongside the Governor’s speech at Lloyd’s of London . We continue to deepen our activities in insurance - including in ensuring that the thinking that underpins the understanding of climate risk on the liability side of insurers’ balance sheets is reflected also in thinking about the transition risks that might arise on the asset side of those balance sheets, something which we expect to share more of over the course of this year.
As ORSE's report on corporate ethics, responsibility and strategy1 quite rightly reminds us, "Corporate ethics is not built on obedience, but on engagement and discernment". Employees must be able to identify ethical "grey areas" even when their manager or clear rules are not available. If ethics are to permeate corporate practices, they must form an integral part of HR policies and structures. For example, during selection procedures for external recruitment or internal promotion, particularly for management positions, the integrity of candidates during their career should be seriously assessed and taken into account. Ethics in themselves have value. Good performances can neither excuse nor compensate for questionable ethical behaviour. Results obtained at the expense of ethical standards should not be rewarded. On the contrary, they should be penalised in order to send the right message with regards to expected behaviour, including from the managers of the employees concerned. Diversity within teams, and particularly management teams, should be encouraged. Experience shows that diversity – in terms of gender, social background, education, thinking – is a factor in risk prevention. An overly homogeneous group does not debate, loses critical thinking and as a result takes more risky decisions. At a time when technical processes and compliance procedures are becoming 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  increasingly complex and favour dialogue between human and machine, direct human contact should once more be given the importance it deserves.

We will continue to make Singapore an attractive city where foreign talent will want to come to work and live and where they will feel at home. Conclusion Let me conclude. ASEAN is entering a new and exciting phase. Individually, each ASEAN country possesses unique strengths and offers unique opportunities. Together, an integrated and revitalised ASEAN holds great promise to become the third engine of growth in Asia. Singapore will contribute to the power of this engine. I wish you a pleasant evening and hope that you will have a fruitful stay in Singapore. Thank you. BIS Review 47/2007  3
The correction with respect to March responds to the negative developments in the external scenario in recent weeks, particularly as the escalation of the trade conflict has led to greater risk aversion, causing, among other effects, a global appreciation of the dollar and a reduction in most commodity prices, including copper. The latter is especially relevant due to its effect on the terms of trade (ToT). Thus, for the period 2019-2021 we assume that the ToT will accumulate an increase of 0.6%, which compares with the increase of 1% expected in March (Figure 10). This projection considers a copper price whose annual averages will be closer to 280 cents per pound between 2019 and 2021, and not around 290 cents per pound, as we estimated in March. As for global growth, the baseline scenario adjusts slightly the expected expansion of our trading partners during this year, to 3.2% (3.3% in March). In this correction, a much lower performance of Latin America becomes important. We still estimate that China will grow around 6% and the US somewhat above 2% (table 4). Although our trading partners’ growth is adjusted only slightly, there has been a marked deterioration in world trade growth, which is captured in the less favorable evolution that is expected for Chilean exports (Figure 11). In the baseline scenario, we project that these will lose dynamism, particularly in 2019, due to the difficulties encountered by some exporting sectors. Also because of the lower copper output, which will impact metal shipments.

I am fully confident that in our next monetary meetings, in the coming months, we will decide, in a pragmatic approach, about the best evolution after March of all our available tools: QE, TLTRO and forward guidance on interest rates. And we have many options open regarding the size and length of instruments like our APP, excluding either a sudden stop of its contribution to our accommodative policy in March, or the continuation of the same contribution forever. Second, we in Europe share a large single market. It is a tremendous asset which belongs to us all, the 27. It is no coincidence that access to the single market lies at the heart of the Brexit debate. We cannot prejudge the outcome of the future negotiations, but we can be sure of one consistency principle: access to the single market must continue to go hand-in-hand with strict acceptance of all its rules. There can be no cherry-picking or free-riding. And we must obviously preserve the single European trade policy, if we want to exist in the trade negotiations to come worldwide. Third, we share a common social model (slide 2) which combines high standards of public service and relatively low levels of inequality – much lower than in American society. And this has been achieved in a market economy.
To conclude, a financial market in the transition to a 1.5 degree world is being built, but we need to move much faster. Now it’s time for a step change to bring the reporting, risk management and return optimisation of sustainable finance into everyday mainstream, financial decision making. Ultimately, the speed with which the new sustainable financial system develops will be decided by the ambitions of your climate policies. If more countries, like the UK, turn their Paris commitments into legislated objectives and concrete actions, the financial system will amplify the impact of their efforts by pulling forward sustainable investments and shutting down unsustainable activities.9 It is within our grasp to create a virtuous cycle of innovation and investment for the net zero world that our citizens are demanding and that future generations deserve. Let’s seize it  7  Nagy, Z, Kassam, A, and Lee, L-E,. (June 2015). Can ESG add alpha? Available: https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/4a05d4d3- b424-40e5ab01-adf68e99a169. 8 Such indices highlight those who have shown the highest rate of improvement in lowering carbon intensity. As described in ‘Financing the Low Carbon Future’ (CFLI, September 2019). Available at: https://data.bloomberglp.com/company/sites/55/2019/09/Financing-the-Low-CarbonFuture_CFLI-Full-Report_September-2019.pdf 9 The policy frameworks with the greatest impact will be: time consistent; transparent; target-based; and committed, through treaties, nationally determined contributions (NDCs), domestic legislation and consensus. The COP 21 Agreement is catalysing national policies to limit the global rise in temperatures to two degrees.

I am reliably informed that the number of branches has increased from 17 at the beginning of April last year to 55 at the end of November 2007. What is even more impressive is that these branches are found in areas which were previously not serviced by commercial banks. This indeed is a bold move and for this we must commend Barclays Bank Zambia. I am aware that the expansion programme is backed by a capital injection of approximately K40.0 billion which will make it possible for Barclays Bank Zambia to increase its services in the country, particularly to the SMEs sector. Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2005 Finscope Survey undertaken by FinMark Trust confirmed that levels of access to financial services in Zambia are low. Fewer than 15% of adult Zambians are reported to have had access to commercial banks. The reasons given for this low accessibility varied but some of the critical reasons included the distance to banks, the time spent getting to a bank and the cost of getting a bank service. With Barclays Bank Zambia opening branches closer to the people it is our conviction that the number of Zambians to have access to banking services will increase. We therefore encourage as many Zambians as possible to use these facilities. To the residents of Chilenje, I urge you to utilize the services offered by Barclays Bank, otherwise the bank may opt to close its branch due to lack of business and you will be left with no bank in your area.
Of course, these measures will eventually have positive effects on inflation in Sweden as they provide welcome stimulus for an important Swedish export market. But, by weakening the euro, the ECB’s measures risked exerting price pressure on a significant portion of Swedish imports over the short term. In addition, the price of oil had fallen sharply in 2014 and continued to fall in 2015. The international development of the price of oil directly influences inflation in Sweden via the price of fuel oil and, not least, the price of petrol. Over time, it can also have effects on other prices, as it affects companies’ energy and transportation costs. It is true that, in normal cases, a fall in the price of oil has a brief effect on the actual inflation figures. But as the price of petrol in particular is so very visible for so many people, it may have a disproportionately high impact on how inflation is perceived and thereby possibly also on inflation expectations. 2  See, for example Andersson, B., Corbo, V. and Löf, M., “Why has inflation been so low?”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2015:3, Sveriges Riksbank. 3  “Sweden needs its inflation target”, published 13 October 2015. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  We have also had a year characterised by a large degree of uncertainty over international developments in general. Greece’s membership of the single currency and possibly, therefore, the entire European monetary union was, at moments, on the ropes.

But would making the repo rate negative and quite simply forcing the banks – and, ultimately, perhaps their customers – to pay to keep money in an account really have the same impact on final interest rates for households and companies and, if so, could it be implemented without causing problems elsewhere in the system? One objection towards negative interest rates is that people will choose the alternative of keeping cash in their mattresses. As this would be troublesome and not entirely risk-free, it can be imagined that most people would want to hold off stuffing their mattresses with cash as long as interest rates stay only slightly negative, but it is, of course, difficult to gain clarity as to exactly where such a boundary would lie. If the banks were unwilling to introduce negative deposit rates, would they then attempt to maintain their earnings by not cutting their lending rates either, in the eventuality that the repo rate was cut to below zero per cent? There are some international experiences, albeit short-lived, of  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  negative interest rates that can be looked at – from the euro area, Denmark and Switzerland – but how would the Swedish system react? Purchasing government bonds? Another measure with the potential to push interest rates down and counteract the excessively rapid appreciation of the krona was the purchasing of government bonds. There were significantly more comprehensive historical and international experiences of this than there were of negative interest rates.
Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Economic transformation and inclusive growth in frontier economies Welcome and opening remarks by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the conference on “Economic transformation and inclusive growth in frontier economies”, jointly organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Bangkok, 28 January 2013. *  *  *  Ministers and Central Bank Governors, Distinguished guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, 1. It gives me great pleasure and honor to welcome each and every one of you to Thailand, and more specifically, to the Conference on “Economic Transformation and Inclusive Growth in Frontier Economies”. This event is the second in a series of conference jointly organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). 2. The topic of the conference is timely and relevant to current developments in the region. Frontier economies are new and becoming large markets. They all have the potential to grow into tomorrow’s emerging economies. In recent years, we witness faster economic growth in frontier economies than larger emerging economies. We have seen frontier economies integrate into the regional and global economy. 3. Frontier economies are full of potential. However, continued efforts on strengthening policy frameworks are still needed. This is to ensure long term economic growth and sustain robust economy. And I believe that today’s conference will contribute to these efforts as we will share and learn the appropriate lessons of others. One can leap jump the process, without repeating the mistakes.

Pablo Hernández de Cos: Remittance flows and their effects on Latin American macroeconomic and financial stability during the COVID-19 crisis Introductory remarks by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to the virtual seminar on “Remittance flows and their effects on Latin American macroeconomic and financial stability during the COVID-19 crisis”, organized by the Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas (FLAR) and the Bank of Spain, webinar, 27 July 2021. * * * Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me first thank FLAR (the Latin American Reserve Fund) and its president, José Darío Uribe, for the opportunity of jointly organising this webinar with the Banco de España. It will be the first of many and marks the start of close collaboration between both institutions, formalised in a memorandum of understanding in December 2020. The close economic and financial ties between Latin America and Spain are widely known. The interest of the Banco de España in the region has grown, as you know, owing to the internationalisation of Spanish banks since the early 1990s, largely directed towards Latin America. In this process, the region has taken on great significance for the Spanish banking system. Indeed, Spanish banks’ exposures to Latin America account, on pre-pandemic data, for almost one-fifth of the system’s total exposures, and for almost 30% of exposures outside Spain.
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Global rebalancing, asset prices and policy responses Opening remarks by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the Fifth High-Level Seminar of the Eurosystem and Latin American Central Banks, Madrid, 10 December 2010. *  *  *  Good morning and welcome again. More than three years after the global financial system started to show serious signs of instability and two years after being on the verge of a global economic and financial meltdown, the world economy seems to have avoided that risk, backed by a strong and coordinated policy response. Nevertheless, the strengthening has been uneven and the risk of economic and financial instability is still persistent and significant in some regions, like the euro area. Indeed, it is hard to emphasise sufficiently the challenges ahead and how crucial the present juncture is for the future of our Monetary Union. On the contrary, Latin American economies had learned the lessons from the severe financial and economic disruptions they experienced in the not so distant past, and the challenges they currently face are more similar to those that characterised the period of strong growth prior to the financial crisis. These very different sets of present circumstances make today’s exchange of mutual experiences and policy discussion particularly interesting. The title of today’s Seminar was chosen almost a year ago, but it couldn’t be more timely: Global Rebalancing, Asset Prices and Policy Responses.

However, limiting upward exchange rate flexibility may attract more capital inflows, on the expectation of future appreciations, turning thereby into a self-defeating strategy. In summary, choosing the right policy mix has become a challenging task for many emerging market economies, all the more so in the absence of a globally coordinated policy response. Faced with these uncertain times, Latin American economies are applying a mix of policies to attain their multiple objectives and minimise risks. The mix includes, to differing degrees of intensity, monetary policy tightening, foreign exchange interventions and reserve accumulation, macro-prudential policies and, in some cases, capital controls. The use of capital controls has traditionally been controversial, because they distort markets while their effectiveness is not backed by empirical evidence. But we must acknowledge that there has been a shift in opinion in their favour – at least as a last-resort instrument – even among institutions such as the IMF. In turn, this shift probably reflects a change in the perceived balance of benefits and costs associated with financial excesses. Nevertheless, it is important to bear in mind that capital controls can also entail negative externalities for the global economy. While fully convinced of the benefits of financial globalisation, a topic to which we devoted our Seminar in 2006, I am concerned by the risks of financial deglobalisation arising in the wake of the crisis.
And if debtors recognise that risks in contracts will not be enforced, they will no longer have incentives to price risk and exercise discipline themselves. So it has been for well over a century. There are many examples of time-inconsistencies in the private debt contracts issued by banks. Uncalled capital and reserve liability were banks’ loss-absorbing contract of choice in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. They ultimately proved ineffective and were abolished. Why? Because managers feared that invoking these instruments, at precisely the time they were most needed, might make a bad situation worse. This is time-inconsistency writ large. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  A century on, hybrid bank debt instruments fell into the same trap. They gave bank management the option to rollover debt automatically in the event of stress. In principle, this option had insurance value in a situation of liquidity stress. In practice, facing the liquidity crunch of 2008, banks failed to exercise this option at just the point it was most valuable. Why? Because they too feared scaring creditors and making a bad liquidity situation worse. Hybrid debt, too, was time-inconsistent. Time-inconsistencies in public policies regarding bank debt have been every bit as acute. Both liquidity and deposit insurance have a long and revealing history. Liquidity insurance by the central bank was firmly established in the UK by the end of the 19th century and spread to all major central banks during the course of the 20th century.

As an illustration, emerging market economies have accounted for 70 percent of global output growth since the crisis—double their share from two decades ago.3 This growth has provided much-needed support to world economic activity, as advanced economies have recovered slowly from the crisis. Rising economic integration is also very evident when we examine the trade relationship between India and the United States. Bilateral trade flows have risen tenfold, from $ billion in 1995 to almost $ billion in 2015. In particular, half of U.S. imports of computer services are now sourced from India. In 2015, the stock of bilateral foreign direct investment in both countries was $ billion, up from $ billion in 2002.4 The potential for further increases has been reinforced by the liberalization measures India announced last year to encourage greater foreign direct investment. Benefits of Open Trade Increased trade, through its longer-term impact on productivity, has been a key contributor to global growth and prosperity since the Second World War. Openness to trade brings many benefits to the supply side of the economy. These include: larger markets, greater specialization opportunities, and the increased ability to exploit economies of scale and scope; faster transmission of technology and innovation; and greater competitive pressure on domestic firms to increase their productivity. Collectively, these forces lead to a more efficient allocation of a country’s scarce resources— one that is more closely aligned to its international comparative advantage.