samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Organisational changes to address the challenge of financial innovation The role of regulators and supervisors is to contribute to harnessing in full the benefits of innovation while maintaining risks within reasonable and socially acceptable limits. As you can imagine, this is no easy task and requires the authorities themselves to undertake internal transformation processes so as to be able to appropriately meet these challenges. As a result of this need, the Banco de España has in recent years assigned growing resources to monitoring and analysing financial innovation. The first step was the creation, in February 2017, of an internal group with representatives from different business areas within our central bank to gain a cross-departmental view of the phenomenon and to promote coordination among these different areas. One year on, we have deemed it necessary to take a further step, assigning specific resources to the analysis of financial innovation. To do this, a new Associate Directorate General was created last March. This new area pursues three major aims: (i) to understand the dimension of the changes taking place, (ii) to analyse the consequences of the new developments, and (iii) to provide for coordination and contact with the market and the other authorities involved, including those from other jurisdictions since, in short, financial technological innovation is a global phenomenon. The ultimate aim is to develop an overview of the main features and challenges facing financial services-providers.

In the context of a greater expansion of credits to the economy during the past two years, particularly in real terms, the net flow of credits to private enterprises has mainly consisted of medium and long term credits extended to finance investment. Overall, excluding credits repurchased by the Treasury, bank credits to the private sector (enterprises and households) stood at dinar billion 3120 by end 2014, with the share of medium and long term credits increasing from 62.3 percent by end 2013 (61.3 percent by end 2012) to 64.3 percent. The dynamism of bank credit to the economy, mainly for the benefit of private enterprises, clearly reflects the improvement in the financing structure and conditions as a result of the measures taken by the Government to boost medium and long term credits to the private sector, notably measures implemented in 2013 to facilitate SMEs’ access to bank credit. In parallel, banks improved information provided to SMEs on required investment credit documentation and made notable progress in reducing processing times. After fourteen years of savings surplus, 2014 and 2015 recorded a cycle reversal. The drastic oil price fall as of mid-2014 resulted in a widening savings-investment gap. Six years after the international economic and financial crisis, the Algerian economy, like other oil exporting countries, has been affected by the resource contraction as of 2015. However, credits to the economy continued to expand (15.9 percent in 2015), mainly for the benefit of private enterprises.
When international investors lost confidence in the ability of governments to defend the fixed exchange rate, the countries encountered difficulties. Sharp currency depreciations and major readjustments followed in many countries. Even though economies in this region have fared well in recent years, the experience may have left its mark. A number of Asian countries, China in particular, have chosen to keep their currencies pegged to the US dollar. As long as the Chinese authorities are successful in keeping the exchange rate fairly fixed, competitiveness and a trade surplus will be maintained. However,  3  2  US Bureau of Labor Statistics. International Labor Comparisons. Manufacturing in China. http://www.bls.gov/fls/china.htm  BIS central bankers’ speeches  such a policy is at the expense of deficit countries, which would have preferred to see an adjustment in the yuan exchange rate. China’s exchange rate policy is therefore under strong pressure, especially from the US. But China’s economic strategy is based on its own experience and the experience of others. First, China has chosen to focus on the export of finished manufactured goods rather than domestic consumption as the basis for growth. So far, this has resulted in dynamic developments where growth has been kept high owing to increasing opportunities for people in rural areas to move to new jobs in towns and cities. A stable exchange rate has contributed to predictable operating parameters for a rapidly growing export industry and has held up competitiveness.

In the same period they accounted for 80 per cent of growth in global consumption of agricultural products and virtually all of the increase in global metal consumption. While demand for energy and commodities is rising, there are supply-side constraints. With regard to oil, the large and easily accessible deposits were extracted first, and new finds are smaller and more expensive to extract. The same applies to a number of metals. Investment  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  in the energy and commodity sector has also been low. Energy prices have risen fairly markedly over a lengthy period, with some temporary disturbances. Agriculture is facing some of the same challenges. Productivity growth in this sector has declined in recent years. In order to increase production, farmers have had to use less fertile land and the costs of food production have risen. Agricultural production has also become more energy-intensive and energy and food prices have become more closely linked. Energy now accounts for a third of the cost of grain production. In addition, with high oil prices, demand has shifted towards biofuels, with inputs such as maize and sugar. In 2010, 40 per cent of maize production in the US was used to produce biofuel. A large share of sugar production in Brazil is used for the same purpose. As we have seen in recent years, the rise in energy prices is spreading to food prices4.
The  BIS Review 84/2005  3  average inflation rate over the ten years since the inflation target was introduced does not indicate any systematic deviation. The second factor that complicates the picture of a simple relationship between monetary policy and employment is that inflation is not influenced by the output gap only but also by inflation expectations, which in turn depend on the credibility of monetary policy. If there is confidence in the Riksbank’s monetary policy it is often enough to make small changes in interest rates to signal that the Riksbank is keeping a close eye on inflation tendencies. If inflation expectations instead deviate sharply from the Riksbank’s target, more potent measures may be required. Thirdly, inflation and employment are not always affected by the same factors. Many short-term factors have a strong impact on inflation but only a marginal effect on the output gap and employment (e.g. the impact of mad cow disease on meat prices or the rapid rise and fall of electricity prices due to how the weather had affected reservoir levels). Likewise, certain factors and policy decisions affect registered open unemployment more than they influence the output gap (e.g. the National Labour Market Board’s decision to scale back labour market policy measures in 2003). In addition, the relationship between monetary policy and unemployment sometimes deviates fairly sharply from previous historical patterns.

Banks should establish sustainable long-term relationship with the businesses to enhance consultancy and lending, especially with regard to the small and mediumsized enterprises. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Conclusions In conclusion, I would like to highlight that the current economic and financial situation in Albania requires maintaining the financial intermediation rates and addressing non-performing loans with priority. Collaboration with other public authorities has been successful; also, concrete action is expected to be taken on settling outstanding payments to private companies, and approving the proposed legal amendments on collateral execution. Today, the Bank of Albania proposed some additional measures aimed at inducing banks to lend more. These measures, which will be soon reflected in the regulatory framework, have a countercyclical nature and are in general temporary. This element, and the needed control mechanisms that accompany such measures, will encourage banks to respect the obligation to credit prudentially and soundly. Given that, at present, crediting has additional risks, the banks management and shareholders should ensure that these short and medium-term risks are covered by adequate capital. The outcome of these measures would improve if businesses understood and used them properly. To this end, the relationship between businesses and banks should be base only on transparent and professional collaboration. This should be better reflected in the media and transferred to the public. The Bank of Albania will assess the impact of these measures and monitor their implementation on regular basis.
As the BNB is not entitled to direct legislative initiative, we are going to immediately submit this draft to the Ministry of Finance so that they move it on to the National Assembly. Therefore,  2/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  when we speak of the legal framework, it is not so much about our readiness with drafted laws, but about whether we will have a working Parliament and political will. If these are present, the legislative programme can be fully completed in the next few months. The fourth group of tasks deals with the technical preparations and the entire logistics of the process of accession to the euro area. With regard to this group of tasks, not a small part of the burden falls on the Bulgarian National Bank and commercial banks. We are working intensely and systematically to fulfil this group of tasks. I will give a few examples to illustrate this. As a Central Bank, we have already received the full documentation on the minting of the Bulgarian euro coins. You probably know that at the end of last year, together with the Minister of Finance, we signed a Memorandum on this issue with the European Commission and with the Eurogroup that represents the euro area Member States. Under this memorandum, we have received the full set of documents from the European Commission and we are preparing for the first tests of minting the Bulgarian euro coins.

Despite all that, foreign exchange market participants and central banks in 1974 found Herstatt risk to be an intractable problem. All that was left to banks was to manage it. And so it went for 20 years. Then, in the mid-1990s, Bill McDonough, president of the New York Fed, identified the continued existence of Herstatt risk as a challenge to be met. As chairman of the Committee on Payments and Settlement Systems of the G-10 Central Bank Governors, he spurred the central bank community to take a fresh look. This time, the combination of new financial analysis and the rapidly expanding availability of raw computing power made the difference. •  In what today still stands as a landmark in analysis of the connection between operational and financial risk, the 1996 Allsopp report demonstrated in a straightforward manner just how much financial risk existed in the bilateral settlement of gross principal amounts of foreign exchange – an analysis that provided the insight into how a settlement facility could reduce that risk, and into understanding how settlement management could improve in the interim. •  Raw computing power was essential for the design and risk management of any proposed new settlement facility. Through scenario analysis and stress testing, CLS’s founders could determine the necessary capital and liquidity needs, default handling procedures, and the general benefits of multilateral vs. bilateral netting. The inherently multicurrency nature of foreign exchange settlement of course enhanced the challenge.
It will probably take a long time to gain a general view of the extent to which international banks and other financial institutions will be forced to write-down losses. One relatively late consequence of the crisis was the problem for the so-called monolines, that is, insurance companies that insure bond loans. Many of them risked being downgraded by the credit rating agencies and this has since been the case for several of them. As I saw it, these problems could lead to a substantial credit crunch. Developments on the world’s stock markets were another clear expression of the financial turmoil. Since the international stock market fall began last summer, and up until the February monetary policy meeting, prices on the largest stock exchanges had fallen by between 15 and 30 per cent. Just since the beginning of the year prices had fallen by 10-15 per cent. It is difficult to predict how the existing turmoil on the financial markets will affect developments around the world and in the Swedish economy. The financial sector in Sweden is outside of the worst crisis area since it has small direct exposures to the most problematic areas of the securities markets, but my assessment was that the Swedish economy would be affected by a continued crisis with abnormally high interest rates and elements of credit rationing. The problems in the US housing market also continued. According to real estate statistics, house prices had fallen in all regions.

The outcome had not been published at the time of the monetary policy meeting, but it was largely as expected. Households in the euro area appear to have been very restrictive with their consumption expenditure. Retail trade turnover fell at the end of last year and it is also possible to discern from survey data that household confidence has declined. As in the United States, more prolonged problems in the financial markets can lead to developments being weaker than in the main scenario. My view in February of developments in Sweden Inflation has gradually risen in Sweden in recent years. On average, measured in terms of the CPI, inflation was 2.2 per cent last year, which is close to the inflation target. The upswing in inflation was partly due to resource utilisation in the economy having increased and cost pressures having risen. Hourly wages increased more rapidly than before at the same time as productivity growth slackened considerably. Inflation has been very low for several years, but in 2007 rising cost pressures were a factor that contributed to inflation reaching the target. Underlying inflation, measured in terms of the CPIX, was however 1.2 per cent as an average for 2007. During the autumn of last year inflation rose very quickly and, measured in terms of the CPI, reached 3.5 per cent in December. Underlying inflation, measured in terms of the CPIX, rose to 2 per cent in December.
Let me focus on the first, as this is in the hands of the central bank. For us in the ECB and the Eurosystem, when devising an exit strategy from the current extraordinary low level of interest rates and the liquidity support to the banking system, through standard and non-standard measures, it will be essential to strike a balance between, on the one hand, responding in a timely and effective manner to incipient risks to price stability as the economy recovers and market conditions normalise, and, on the other hand, winding down in a proportionate manner the support schemes and non-standard measures that have been implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of the crisis on the banking system and certain financial market segments. With regard to the latter, gradualism and clear communication by the central bank of any changes to the operational framework with sufficient lead time to allow market participants to prepare and adjust their liquidity management will be essential. The ECB and the Eurosystem are committed to pursuing such a gradualist approach as well as a timely and transparent communication policy. VI. Conclusion  I started my remarks by pointing to the relevance of Heraclitus’ insight for the last two years, namely that “all is in flux”. He developed further his theory of continuous change and reasoned that all that exists, in fact, “simultaneously forms and dissolves”. This line of philosphical reasoning led him to argue that “the way up and the way down are one and the same”.

ahap Kavcolu: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr ahap Kavcolu, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the 91st Ordinary Meeting of the General Assembly, Ankara, 28 March 2023. *** Esteemed Shareholders, Distinguished Guests, Before I start my speech, I would like to wish Allah Almighty's mercy on our citizens who lost their lives in the devastating earthquakes in February, I extend my condolences to their grieving families, and I wish a speedy recovery to those who are still being treated. I would like to commemorate again Prof. Yusuf Tuna, our esteemed professor and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, who passed away last year. Before moving on to the agenda items to be discussed at the General Assembly, I would like to share with you our assessments regarding the macroeconomic outlook and our monetary policy implementations. In the last part of my speech, I will summarize our activities in 2022. Distinguished Participants, In 2022, while the negative effects of the pandemic had not yet been fully eliminated, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war that took place in Türkiye's immediate region, supply constraints appeared again and particularly energy prices and global commodity and food prices rose rapidly. In addition to the geopolitical uncertainties that emerged due to the war, the supply-demand imbalances that persisted in the aftermath of the pandemic caused inflation to increase rapidly on a global scale, reaching historically high levels.
The policies we enact at the FOMC are vitally important for sustaining growth at the national level, but they can’t determine everything that happens at the local level. This is where our community development work comes in. Through our research and outreach, we put data and analysis into the hands of community leaders to give them tools to strengthen their local economies. We have programs that use our convening power to bring together stakeholders to share knowledge—our workforce development program is a key example. And finally, we use our research to catalyze action and investment. Tools such as our resource guidebooks serve as a starting point for investors. Conclusion I started by talking about our goals—keeping prices stable and ensuring maximum employment. These things are essential for a strong and prosperous economy. And while the current picture is complex, the economy is in a good place. But not every community has benefited from the growth of the last decade to the same degree. At the New York Fed, we are committed to understanding what drives growth, economic inequality, and what creates opportunity. Those are the insights that drive my fascination with economics and my commitment to the Federal Reserve and its public mission. Those are the insights from the data we need to leverage, so that all parts of the U.S. economy can reach their full potential. 1 John C. Williams, Monetary Policy: A ‘Data Dependent’ Approach , Remarks at the New Jersey Bankers  Association’s Economic Leadership Forum, Somerset, New Jersey (January 18, 2019).

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Knowing Nusantara – money that made the region Opening speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the launch of “Knowing Nusantara: Money That Made the Region”, Bank Negara Malaysia Museum and Art Gallery, Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur, 26 August 2014. *  *  *  The Numismatic heritage of the Malay Archipelago is as rich as the region itself. There were few other regions that had such a level of trade that has existed in this part of Southeast Asia. Every type of seafarer had been here over the centuries, bringing with them a wide range of currencies. From Chinese copper cash to South American “pieces of eight”, Nusantara has been a magnet for money of all shapes, sizes and materials. When these are combined with the indigenous currency minted in the Archipelago, the legacy is immense. “Knowing Nusantara: Money that Made the Region” explores the coins and banknotes that have circulated in the Malay Archipelago, telling a story that goes back 2,000 years and that continues to evolve. By telling this story, the objective is to create a deeper understanding of the region. The history of the archipelago is largely about contact and the interconnectivity that existed in the region even during that period. Movement between islands and the mainland are mirrored by the encounters between the indigenous and foreign peoples.
That is explained by a late adjustment in the key rate relative to the growth of inflation expectations. Clearly, this is not a path we want to follow. We currently expect that our monetary policy stance will ensure that inflation returns to 4– 4.5% in the second half of next year. We recently outlined our approaches to monetary policy for the next three years and our outlook, as well as our scenarios in the draft Monetary Policy Guidelines. The second problem for us to address and keep in check is the consumer debt burden. This has always been a top priority issue for both the Federation Council and the Bank of Russia. It is on the agenda each time we meet at the Federation Council, and I am grateful to you senators that the issue never escapes your attention. Considering the need for many changes to legislation, improvements in this area would be impossible without your strong support. Our aim is to ensure that credit enables people to solve their problems but does not drive them into a debt hole. We have introduced a borrower’s debt burden indicator to discourage banks from issuing loans to borrowers who would find it difficult to service new debt — those who already have difficulty servicing existing debt. The Bank of Russia has enacted so-called macroprudential add-ons to make it less profitable for banks to issue new consumer loans and check excessively fast growth in consumer lending. In microfinance, caps have been introduced on interest and fines on loans.

Unfortunately, all that does not mean that the problems caused by the pandemic are behind us. For example, we can see a strong rise in inflation, both domestically and across the globe: demand has recovered as restrictions and lockdowns have been lifted, while supply-side restrictions persist. Companies in many sectors are recording skills shortages, and there are raw material and component supply disruptions. We are monitoring economic developments and the financial situation in the regions on an ongoing basis. At each policy Board meeting, our regional executives report on how the situation in the regions is unfolding and provide us with a broad picture. We note a global rise in prices for many goods (metals, wood, and food), which are pushing up business costs. Prices are increasing in many countries, but regulators view the current surge in inflation as temporary, and are just waiting for the trend to end. There is no way we can afford the same approach. Let me explain why. By historical standards, we are quite new to inflation targeting, the regime we switched to just six years ago. Regrettably, inflation expectations — a very valuable indicator — remain unanchored. What does this mean? Many countries record a temporary surge in inflation, but people and businesses are confident that their central bank will take whatever action necessary, and inflation will return to target. Those central banks have extensive experience in the field of inflation targeting. Therefore, with inflation expectations in their countries steady, they expect inflation to drop again after that surge.