samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
My view is that we should further study how PLT frameworks might work in practice. 15 But, it is possible that a simpler approach of committing to keeping the average inflation rate around 2 percent over the medium term might be just as appealing. It might be sufficient to better anchor inflation expectations while avoiding the communication challenges and complexity of an asymmetric PLT regime. In this vein, I also would evaluate whether the inflation goal should be recast as a range of, perhaps, 1½ to 2½ percent, from the current 2 percent objective. A range might have several advantages over a point target. First, it might be viewed as more realistic given that measured inflation will always randomly fluctuate relative to its underlying trend. That is to say, even if the FOMC performs its job exceedingly well, very rarely will the inflation rate, as measured by the PCE price index, be precisely at 2 percent. Second, having a relatively narrow range would send a message that the FOMC is discriminating between two regimes—one in which inflation is within the range and concerns about inflation are low, versus another in which inflation is outside the range and concerns about inflation are more elevated. Even so, I would not recommend shifting to such a range currently. I would only consider doing so once the FOMC has successfully and sustainably pushed inflation back to its 2 percent objective.

In this context, I would not take much signal from the slowdown in consumer spending in the first two months of this year. As I see it, this slowdown was mostly due to two transitory factors: a retrenchment following the spurt in activity from recovery efforts following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and the delay in this year’s tax refund payments to those receiving certain tax credits.2 Strong payroll employment gains also suggest that the slowdown in household spending will be temporary. Over the last three months, payroll gains have climbed to a monthly pace of 202,000 jobs, somewhat above 2017’s monthly average of 182,000. Robust job gains coupled with moderate growth in labor compensation should ensure that household incomes will continue to rise at a solid rate, even before factoring in the impact of this year’s reduction in personal income taxes. With respect to inflation, most of the evidence is consistent with a slow movement toward the FOMC’s 2 percent objective. On a year-over-year basis through February, the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the core PCE price index—which excludes the more volatile food and energy components—have risen by 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, from troughs of 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent last summer. Further gains appear likely at the end of this month, when the sharp decline in cellular telephone services prices that occurred a year ago drops out of the year-over-year calculations. In the current environment, I see three important issues regarding the appropriate monetary policy stance: 1.
But how can the degree to which monetary policy has succeeded in stabilising inflation and resource utilisation be measured? The mean squared gap for inflation is a natural measure of the stability of inflation around the inflation target. The mean squared gap for output is a natural measure of the stability of the output gap and thus of the stability of resource utilisation around a normal level. Looking at Figure 1, it could be claimed that the mean squared gaps in panels b and c do not tell us anything of significance, as it is obvious from panels d, e and f that the lower repo rate path leads to a better outcome. However, the situation is unusual in that the main scenario is not efficient – that is, that it is possible to find another repo rate path that better stabilises both inflation and resource utilisation. A more normal situation is one in which a balance must be struck between prioritising the stabilisation of either inflation or resource utilisation. Such a situation prevailed for Norges Bank in March 2005, for example. In Figure 4, I present the mean squared gaps calculated on the basis of the alternative policy rate paths and equivalent forecasts for inflation and resource utilisation presented in Norges Bank’s monetary policy report from March 2005. The policy rate path then chosen depends upon the weighting placed by the central bank upon stabilising the output gap, as opposed to stabilising inflation (this weight is usually denoted by  ).

Svein Gjedrem: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of the Norges Bank, at a meeting of Sparebanken Nord-Norge, Tromsø, 25 September 2001. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation Summary and charts. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 19 September. *  *  *  Norway’s economic policy is based on new guidelines for fiscal and monetary policy. The new guidelines were published by the Government on 29 March 2001 in connection with the presentation of the Government’s Long-Term Programme. The inflation target for monetary policy came into force immediately. The guidelines for fiscal policy were discussed in the Storting in June and were approved by a majority. Monetary policy is oriented towards low and stable inflation. The inflation target is set at 2½ per cent. In general, the direct effects on consumer prices resulting from changes in interest rates, taxes, excise duties and extraordinary temporary disturbances shall not be taken into account. In the 1990s, monetary policy gradually moved further away from the fixed-exchange-rate regime which was practiced from 1986 to 1992. Low and stable inflation is the best contribution monetary policy can make to growth, prosperity and income distribution. In the long term, monetary policy has little effect on the real economy. Low and stable inflation can, however, provide fertile ground for stability and growth.
During the Ming (1368–1644) dynasty, paper money was swept away by commodity money. 23 This dynamic has also since been replicated across a number of monetary economies, including dollarizing emerging market economies over recent decades. Today, finance faces its own Gresham’s dilemma – the patient or impatient path. Innovation has, of course, transformed finance over the intervening years. Liberalisation has resulted in far greater information and liquidity in financial markets. Perhaps these developments have helped good finance drive out bad, nudging money towards the patience path? Not necessarily. Take information. In an evolutionary game, information is a double-edged sword. It supports the cause of the long-term investor, by allowing them more easily to compare prices with fundamentals. But it also tests the patience of the untested investor subject to regular performance evaluation. Investors whose judgement is right, but whose timing is wrong, stand an increasingly high chance of exiting the game. More frequent information on performance risks contaminating the gene pool, driving out the patient to the benefit of the impatient. Anecdotally at least, performance evaluation intervals have progressively shortened. Over recent decades, companies have migrated from annual general meetings, to a six monthly or quarterly reporting cycle to today’s steady stream of within-cycle trading updates. In finance, information is in general a good thing. But in finance, as in life, it is possible to have too much of a good thing. Liquidity is similarly double-edged. It reduces the impact of momentum trading on prices, thereby increasing market efficiency.

2  BIS Review 55/2007  4. Fund managers/dealers/traders  Interbank market The tight monetary policy stance adopted by CBSL and its possible continuation would result in increased reliance by banks on the inter-bank call market. Given the self imposed limits by banks on lending to each other, if a few banks attempt to raise a large volume of funds from the inter-bank market , there could be volatility in interest rates. Banks should not often rely on a potentially volatile call money market as an alternative to mobilizing deposits or exploring other funding sources. The heavy reliance by some banks on the call money market drives short term interest rates and make borrowing costs to investors and business community to very high levels. The volatility in the call market also creates uncertainty among the businesses and that adds to inflationary expectations. Forex market Given the current account imbalances, there is a mismatch in foreign exchange inflows and outflows. Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange market is not deep enough to absorb relatively large transactions, though its size and operations have gradually increased. In such a market, huge speculative trades could be rather disturbing and they could move the exchange rate against economic fundamentals. No doubt, forex market is a key source of foreign exchange income to banks. Its price, which is the exchange rate, is determined according to demand and supply forces.
It is actually on a flatter slope than it was in the 1990s and that of other emerging economies  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  that have adopted measures to control capital inflows (figure 12). Still, it is important to be on the watch for excess flows that might incubate financial fragilities and exacerbate economic cycles, in which case it could be necessary to review financial regulations in place to avert any costly imbalances. Recent monetary policy decisions The scenario outlined in the latest Monetary Policy Report assumes that in the coming quarters the Chilean economy will grow in line with its potential. This will allow trend inflation, today in bounded levels, to converge and remain around the 3% target in the coming quarters. To achieve this objective, we have withdrawn some monetary stimulus, bringing the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) closer to the neutral range. Although this is the baseline scenario, the Report also indicated that inflation (and growth) risks were biased upward. For inflation, arguments were based on the combination of adverse supply shocks in energy and foodstuffs, the closing of output gaps and the strong dynamism of the domestic demand. Some of the aforesaid risks have eased. Private inflation expectations have moderated, consistently with MPR adjustments and the recent decline in oil prices and other commodities (figure 13). Anyway, commodity markets remain volatile, so it is premature to evaluate at what level international prices will settle.

Whyconsumers prefer your competitors has also become an important factor. It matters to more consumers today whether companies are conducting business with integrity and ethically. Ultimately, consumers will almost always prefer to deal with companies that they trust. However, what customers look for to identify with companies that they can trust is changing. Advertising campaigns of some of the largest companies that are households names today, centre on universal values of charity towards our fellow mankind, honesty, and respect for one another. These are some of the clearest signs of businesses that understand the shifting preference of a fast growing, new generation of consumers, and are seeking to connect with customers on a deeper level. Innovation and its many faces As we contemplate these developments, the power and potential of innovation quickly shifts into sharp focus. Nowadays, we often hear innovation and disruption mentioned in the same breath. The flipside to that is really innovation and sustainability which are the themes of this conference. It used to be that if a business offered a decent product or service, and managed its costs reasonably well, prospects of survival were generally good. Today, survival – whether you are in the business of driving taxis, running a hotel, or offering a financial product or service – depends on the ability of companies to continuouslyharness and convert innovative ideas, however big or small, to serve customers better and multiply productivity gains. This is the challenge before the MSB industry.
Back to liquidity Given the unprecedented shocks facing the global economy it is more important than ever that there is a focus on ensuring the right frameworks and approaches are in place to bring about appropriate levels of risk management and resilience to safeguard financial stability. This is particularly true in terms of liquidity, where the experience of recent weeks reminds us of the range of vulnerabilities which exist, particularly in the NBFI sector, which is why it is an ongoing focus for the G20. Liquidity is an important and topical subject. But given our focus for today let me return to the Bank's Alternative Liquidity Facility (ALF) to illustrate my favoured approach of using the 4Cs. For many years Islamic banks have faced challenges in efficient liquidity management, unable to hold the same high-quality liquid assets as conventional banks, such as central bank reserves, sovereign debt and asset-backed securities. Further, while Basel liquidity rules gave national supervisors discretion to treat sukuk as high quality liquid assets, the amount of sukuk in issuance eligible for this treatment is modest relative to demand for it. To avoid being caught short, Islamic banks have historically needed to structure themselves in inefficient ways by, for example, holding large stocks of non-interest bearing cash, or having limited offerings of short-term deposits. The ALF – structured as a wakalah, or fund-based facility – provides a creative solution.

The net zero challenge and the UK's role as a global financial hub The transition to a low emission world brings with it a unique set of risks – such as the risk of disorderly transitions away from emissions-intensive assets. Only the financial sector has the capability to marshal the vast sums of investment needed to help businesses and individuals structurally reduce emissions and move in an as orderly way as possible towards sustainable alternatives. The IEA expects that the world will need annual clean energy investment of $ trillion by the end of the decade to limit warming to 1.5oC2, while other recent studies have estimated that between $ trillion and $ trillion of cumulative investment will be required to meet global net-zero emissions by 2050.3 One of the key areas of COP27 is mobilising climate finance for developing countries. The UK's position as a global financial centre means it has a pivotal role to play in relation to the provision of sustainable finance to tackle climate change. This was strengthened further when the UK Government published its UK Green financing framework in June 2021 followed by the launch of the first green gilt issuance in September 2021 which raised £ billion and was the largest inaugural green bond issuance ever undertaken by a sovereign. Total green gilt issuance for the financial year 2021-22 raised a total of £ billion, and further green gilt issuance of £ billion is planned in 2022-23.
They issued shares to their own membership, raised funds as bulk loans from development banks, retailed such funds among members, undertook various economic enterprises, provided quick loans to membership at affordable market interest rates and maintained accounts in terms of more stringent Sri Lanka Accounting Standards and met all the statutory requirements of getting accounts audited by qualified chartered accountants and holding annual general meetings 26 . When the Central Bank was convinced that the people’s companies had the required maturity, exposure and experience to run the Isuru Project on its own under the Bank’s general guidance and supervision, a decision was made to hand over the district level project activities on a phased-out basis to the people’s companies. This unwinding operation began in 2007 and is planned to be completed by 2010. The objective of this strategy has been for the Central Bank to withdraw from the project gradually and allow the beneficiaries who are now matured and seasoned micro financiers to run their own businesses. The first two years of power transfer has been completed successfully. All the People’s Companies have begun their operations on a sound financial footing. The recruitment of their own staff to run the operations has already commenced. The encouraging early signs foretell that the sustainability of the project has now been formally established. Part III Forward sale contract system: a mechanism to ensure price stability in agricultural produce A perennial problem faced by farmers world throughout has been the wide fluctuation of prices of agricultural produce between seasons.

Where we draw the line within that for being in scope of this initial first step of the strong and simple framework will impact the extent of simplification we can achieve while maintaining strong standards. There is also the risk that simplifying requirements for smaller firms could increase barriers to growth, if the step up to the next level of our framework is too big. That being said, we could in the long run move to a graduated approach that covers all nonsystemic firms. Under such a regime the complexity of the framework would grow 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  commensurately with the size and complexity of a firm’s activities, minimising potentially steep barriers to growth. This is in fact the long-term vision we have outlined in our paper. But doing this will take time and, rather than delaying the roll-out of a simpler framework for everyone, we thought a better approach would be to do this step-by-step. One possible first step is to start with the smallest firms that would benefit the most from a radically simpler regime – but, as with all the trade-offs in our paper, this is something we would welcome views on. We also need to consider the position of foreign banks that operate in the UK. Internationally active firms will continue to be in scope of international standards; likewise, it may be appropriate for subsidiaries of international groups to stick with the international standards. But we have an open mind on this.
At the time, we pointed out that almost 70 per cent of the Swedish national income is comprised of wages. The entry of the euro into Sweden is therefore largely determined by Swedish households. Why would they choose the euro over the krona? There is little incentive to do so, as long as their wages are used for goods, services, mortgage interest payments and other items denominated in kronor. The rest of the national income is the operating surplus generated in companies and that is used to increase the owners' wealth or paid out in dividends. A large number of these companies used have Swedish owners, who cannot be assumed to have any motive for changing over to the euro in the reporting of their balance sheets. Given this, it is reasonable to ask why we had a debate on the repression of the krona at all. I myself believe that it stemmed from the over-enthusiasm of some EMU supporters. They were quite simply convinced that Swedes would not be able to resist the attraction of the euro. As an EMU supporter, I can of course see the advantages of the euro, but to believe in a general, spontaneous transition would be going too far. This meant that the idea of a 'euroisation' was also a bad argument in the debate prior to the start of the EMU. If the Swedes are to be won over to the idea of the EMU, we should be emphasising the facts.

There is no reason to believe that fewer countries should apply the new rules. The work in the international organisations is laborious and complicated, as there are many countries that have to reach agreement. In other words, it requires both patience and foresight. A large portion of humility is also good, as our knowledge of these issues is limited. As the financial markets are constantly undergoing change, the work on improving their methods of working should be a constantly ongoing process. Conclusion Over the past few decades, there has been an extensive process of deregulation in many countries, particularly on the financial markets. And exactly as in the latter part of the 19th century, capital can move more or less freely between different countries. Deregulation has gone hand in hand with rapid technological developments, particularly within the field of information and communication. This has, just as in earlier periods of internationalisation, led to an accelerated global growth. The process has created opportunities for many countries to escape from the poverty trap. The work on implementing the single market and introducing the euro can be seen as part of the larger international pattern. The deregulation on the single market strengthens competitive pressure and increases flexibility in the European economies. The euro has lain the foundation for continued integration of the financial markets. Sweden is actively participating in the work on developing the single market, but has so far chosen to remain outside the single currency co-operation.
6/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  If data cannot cross borders, the digital economy cannot cross borders and we will be poorer for it. Not all data localisation is bad: there may be some legitimate concerns about national security. But a good part of data localisation that is happening in the world today is due to misguided notions of cyber security or data privacy or, worse still, old-fashioned protectionism. This is a key challenge for the technolgy community to solve together with policy makers – how to enhance data connectivity while taking into account the issues of data sovereignty. Many of the technologies do exist today: end-to-end encryption, anonymisation. Some experiments are already underway. For example, here in Singapore, UOB Bank is collaborating with Intel to test out an interesting solution. It will allow the bank’s staff in Singapore to run a federated analysis of data residing in other countries and obtain an integrated output of that analysis, without seeing any actual data. MAS and Bank of Thailand are very keen on this project and are participating as observers of the project. We need common data standards across countries so that data can flow freely in environment of trust and security. In the digital economy of future, data connectivity agreements among countries will become as important as today’s free trade agreements. Applied Research Another important element of FinTech ecosystem is applied research. Last year, MAS launched the $ million grant scheme to support R&D in AI and data analytics for the financial sector.

Responsibility would lie with the national supervisor to determine the approach most suitable for its banks. We expect that the new capital treatment will provide much better support for the healthy growth of equity financing and venture capital markets than the current Accord. 4  BIS Review 27/2001  Summary of changes and need for standards These important changes – modifying the capital charges, permitting greater recognition of collateral and trade receivables, and increasing the flexibility of the treatment of equity – should go a long way toward ensuring that banks that lend to small and medium-sized businesses are not disadvantaged under the internal ratings-based approach of the new Accord. I’d like to take a moment to speak more broadly about the internal ratings-based approach. I think it is a significant and innovative step for banks’ internal ratings to play a major role in their capital requirements – a step that plays very strongly into our goal of better aligning capital requirements and risks. To do this effectively, we need to ensure that a bank’s internal rating system enjoys an appropriate degree of credibility and consistency when used in determining regulatory capital. Accordingly, we are striving to develop a meaningful set of minimum standards. While I have focused on the first “pillar” of the new Accord, namely the minimum capital requirements, it’s important to remember that there are two other pillars vital to the new framework: supervisory review and market discipline.