samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Domestic demand has posted high y-o-y growth rates, yet declining. The same has occurred with consumption, supported by a strong labor market. The unemployment rate is near its fifteen-year low, which also reflects on the evolution of wages. Consumers’ expectations have improved in the past few months. On the investment side, the dynamism of engineering works – mainly related to energy and mining projects – and the recent recovery of building are worth signaling out. Other indicators are consistent with a moderation of demand and output, such as the lower y-o-y growth rates of durable consumption and imports. In addition, the slower pace of growth in employment, labor income and consumer loans suggests a deceleration going forward. The Board’s evaluation is that output gaps are closed, which is also based on signs of a tight labor market and a rapid normalization of core inflation. Y-o-y CPI inflation is above the tolerance range, while core measures hover around 3%, growing at a faster pace than in the last quarter of 2011 and forecasts in the December Report. Still, as I just said, the level of core measures is consistent with our assessment of the state of output gaps. The recent inflation trend is also explained by the behavior of transport fares and the prices of fresh fruits & vegetables. The latter, probably affected by climatic conditions, have followed a pattern that contrasts with their usual patterns and have declined in the past few months.

Owing to their substantial day-to-day volatility and the interfaces with money laundering and other criminal activity, cryptocurrencies are unsuitable as a universal means of payment. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies are attractive as speculative assets. Crypto-assets is therefore a better term than cryptocurrencies. Central bank digital currencies Another possibility is central bank digital currencies (CBDC). A CBDC is a digital form of central bank money made available to the general public. A number of central banks, including Norges Bank, are assessing whether introducing a CBDC would be advisable and, if so, in what form. For the time being, banknotes and coins are the only form of central bank money, with a role to play both in a contingency and under normal circumstances. Effective electronic contingency arrangements are crucial for ensuring that the payment system is resilient to disruption. Cash is part of the overall contingency arrangements, in the role of last resort should the electronic contingency arrangements fail. Banknotes and coins will continue to be in use into the foreseeable future. However, the use of cash is relatively low in Norway compared with other countries and is declining. It is not impossible that cash usage, at some point in the future, will fall to such a low level that banknotes and coins can no longer be regarded as a generally accepted means of payment.
In Sweden CPI inflation has fallen from around 5 per cent in 1994 to approximately 2 per cent in 2003. Even in a more long-term perspective, inflation shows a downward trend, which is illustrated in a figure showing inflation in OECD countries. Other parts of the world have experienced a similar development. The IMF’s previous chief economist Ken Rogoff has demonstrated in an article that global inflation has fallen from 30 per cent to 4 per cent between 1993 and 2002. Which factors could lie behind this remarkable slowdown in the rate of price increase? I believe that it is mainly a combination of three factors: (1)  A change in monetary policy with independent central banks applying inflation-targeting,  (2)  IT investments enabling large-scale cost savings and  (3)  Globalisation that entails, among other things, increased competition from new low-wage countries and pressurises producer countries towards greater productivity. 1. Independent central banks with inflation targets  At the beginning of the 1990s, in the aftermath of the years of overheating and crisis, a process of reorientation of economic policy began in Sweden: the tax system was reformed and combating inflation was given priority. The Riksbank decided at the beginning of 1993 to introduce an inflation  BIS Review 21/2004  1  target, defined as 2 per cent with a tolerated deviation interval of plus/minus one percentage point, and fiscal policy was increasingly oriented towards budget consolidation. Similar developments took place at around the same time in many other countries.

The change in economic policy was particularly revolutionary in the former communist states in Europe, in China and in developing countries that had previously been inspired by the planned economy, such as India, which contributed to these countries becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The fact that price stability has become an explicit target for monetary policy has thus played an important role in the slowdown in inflation over the past decade. It is only to be expected, given that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, which is ultimately determined by monetary policy and the confidence it inspires. Independence for central banks, the convergence criteria for EMU membership and a ban on financing budget deficits by printing more money are some examples of measures that have contributed to increasing confidence in the price stability target. In addition, improved communication and increased transparency have led to monetary policy becoming more predictable and more credible. This has resulted in low, stable inflation expectations, which in Sweden have on average remained close to the inflation target in recent years. 2. Increased investment in IT  As I have already mentioned, productivity has developed more strongly than expected over the past year. Unlike the situation during the second half of the 1990s, this upturn cannot be explained by increased production of ICT goods in general and telecommunications products in particular, as these sectors have experienced a sharp fall since 2001.
I am sure the panellists later will discuss these further when they talk about the future of banking. Let me turn to this forum’s theme question on whether we will witness an evolution or revolution in banking. I believe it will be both. A lot of attention and excitement have been created by services going digital. This digitisation of services have transformed the customer experience say for on-boarding or transactional purposes; but frankly, are not ground-breaking in themselves. As one commentary noted, this is no different from reading an actual newspaper or reading the news online. But a revolution is also happening when new digital services or business models emerge that employ say, artificial intelligence (AI) or blockchain technologies. These can fundamentally change how we borrow, save, pay, invest or insure. As an example, there is a UK bank BABB that leverages totally on blockchain and biometrics to provide peer-topeer financial services with the slogan of “everyone is a bank”. Time will determine the winners and losers as this cycle of technology disruption takes it course. Open banking Open Banking broadly captures the concept that a consumer owns information about himself, and should be able to share that information with any third party if he chooses, for example through APIs, and to transfer his money to any third party seamlessly. The effect is to give consumers ownership over their financial data, to make that data portable, and therefore enables switching and choice among financial service providers. This should promote competition to improve pricing and service quality.

The EU has started on this journey by making payment and data interconnectivity between banks and non-banks mandatory, through the Payment Services Directive 2. Australia has also announced that it will legislate a national Consumer Data Right in 2018, allowing consumers open access to all their data including banking-related ones. While these hold a lot of promise by promoting consumer interests and welfare, there are other details to consider. For example, what primary data rightfully belongs to the customer, and what about secondary data about the customer that a bank had made sense of? How should a customer’s data be packaged for onward sharing? How do we develop technical standards to share this information efficiently and securely? Who should pay for these? In Singapore, we subscribe to the notion of banks sharing their data openly as a larger good. Some of the operational details have to be worked out. In MAS’ engagement with the banking industry, there is broad consensus as to the benefits of open banking. What we see is an opening up of customer data as a ground-up process led by the banks themselves. We believe this is a constructive development, that industry players themselves see the value in doing so. Role of financial regulators In my remarks so far, it should be obvious that financial regulators will have active roles in the business and technology transformation in the banking industry. Regulators need to have a sharp understanding of emerging technologies and new business models, and to be alert to potential risks.
This process of rationalization, which occurred only a few years before the start of the crisis in 2008, made the overall economy resilient and in a better position to weather adverse events in external markets. Post-2008 growth was enabled by the smooth entry into the Euro area, which coincided with the start of the crisis in 2008. The transition was facilitated by the fact that in the preceding decades, there was no recourse to monetary financing of government debt, generally no recourse to currency depreciation to offset internal competitiveness issues, while fiscal policies were in large part prudent. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Another consideration relates to the growth of new sectors which improved the capacity of the economy to offset downturns in external demand. Diversification is often more difficult to achieve in relatively small economies. However, the degree of diversification in the private sector in Malta is remarkable, and has resulted primarily from the growth of financial services, internet related services and aviation servicing, along with the reorientation of both the tourist sector and manufacturing. Although we have experienced higher GDP growth, we must be aware that some of our competitors are starting to benefit from the structural reforms and internal devaluation that they went through in response to the impact of the financial crisis on their economies. Chart 2 displays unit labour costs in the Euro area since 2002, distinguishing between the stressed economies and the relatively unstressed ones. The path of Malta’s ULC is displayed separately.

And, I would like to invite all of you to tomorrow’s dinner to commemorate its achievements in the past quarter of a century together. Ladies and Gentlemen, May I take this opportunity to wish all of you a successful and fruitful deliberation, and an enjoyable stay in Thailand. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 88/2007
As Islamic financial activities are increasingly crossing national boundaries, it is critical for more such dialogues to take place at an international level, in order to gain wider perspectives that can contribute to the development of a legal framework for Islamic finance that is internationally facilitative. Islamic finance today has become a major industry worldwide with over 300 institutions and an estimated asset size of more than USD1 trillion. Its continuing advances in the international financial landscape have recently been accompanied by several major efforts aimed at strengthening its international financial infrastructure. A key structural enhancement achieved recently was the establishment of the Islamic Financial Services Forum (IFSF) that serves as a platform for cross-border engagement among regulators to achieve financial stability in the Islamic financial system. Another important development achieved more recently was the establishment of the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation (IILM) as a mechanism for more efficient management of liquidity across borders for Islamic financial institutions. These continuing efforts to strengthen the foundations of Islamic finance have served to ensure its preparedness in meeting the challenges on the path of internationalisation. As we open a new chapter of global growth and development with the unfolding of a new decade, Islamic finance is in a position of strength to play a greater role in the global financial landscape. Today, many jurisdictions are interested in Islamic finance and have taken initiatives to develop the industry.

But the tightness in the labor market may add inflationary pressure, a point in which I have already mentioned. Fourth, the private sector has shown much resiliency and adaptability. For example, in response to the appreciation of the baht, exporters have made increasing uses of foreign exchange hedging instruments. At the same time, the increasingly diversified export market structure has provided Thai exporters with cushions against the current slowdown in major advanced economies. As another example, many private firms, burned by the crisis experience, no longer over-leverage their balance sheets and turn to equity and retained earnings as major sources of funds. Fifth, the banking sector is now much healthier than even a few years ago. The BIS ratio of the entire banking system remained high at 15.3 per cent in May. Despite the economic slowdown, both ratios of gross NPL and net NPL to total loan declined slightly since the third quarter of last year. In fact, the outstanding amount of NPL declined in the last quarter. In addition, the implementation of IAS39 accounting standard in 2006-2007 and the preparation for the adoption of Basel II at the end of this year have together strengthened the stability of our banking system. With insignificant exposures to collateralized debt obligation (CDO) investments, the Thai banking sector as a whole is also immune to the U.S. sub-prime spillover. Last but not least, Thailand is among the world’s top places when it comes to the ease of starting and operating businesses.
Svein Gjedrem: Economic developments and monetary policy in Norway Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of the Norges Bank, at the meeting of the National Council of the Confederation of Norwegian Commercial and Service Enterprises, Oslo, 30 May 2001. *  *  *  Monetary policy objectives and guidelines  The most important objective of monetary policy is to contribute to low and stable inflation. Economic agents should be fairly certain of the future value of money. High and fluctuating inflation impairs the function of prices as an information vehicle. Agreements pertaining to sales and purchases, loans and interest rates are concluded in nominal krone amounts. The tax system is in nominal rates. When the price level displays wide variations, it is difficult to predict the real content of agreements and budgets. Unexpected swings in the price level can easily lead to fluctuations in the real economy and instability in financial and property markets. The experience of our country and that of others in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s is that periods of high inflation are followed by downturns with high unemployment. High and variable inflation also leads to an arbitrary redistribution of wealth and income. Hence price stability is the best contribution monetary policy can make to economic growth, welfare and appropriate distribution. This spring, the Government and the Storting (Norwegian parliament) issued new guidelines for economic policy.

Continued pressures in the Norwegian economy  1  6  Consensus Forecasts. BIS Review 47/2001  Available labour resources are limited in the Norwegian economy. The labour force participation rate is high. Vacancies are numerous, particularly in the health sector, schools and the construction industry due to a shortage of teachers, nurses, dentists and construction workers. Extensive use of disability and sickness benefits is limiting the supply of labour. Reforms such as contractual pension schemes, which were stepped up through the 1990s, cash allowances for families with small children and an increased number of vacation days this year and next also contribute to reducing the effective labour supply. The country as a whole is experiencing labour shortages, but the differences between regions and industries are considerable. In Eastern Norway, where service industries are very important, unemployment has declined the last year. From 1998 to 2000 alone, employment in private services rose by 26 000 nationwide. In Southern and Western Norway, unemployment rose last year, largely reflecting the decline in manufacturing employment since the beginning of 1999. Unemployment has declined again recently. Employment in the public sector has also increased markedly in recent years. Over the last 30 years, the public sector and private services have laid claim to an increasing share of labour resources in Norway, a trend that will probably continue. BIS Review 47/2001  7  The tight labour market reflects a high activity level in the Norwegian economy. The mainland economy is experiencing an upturn, but growth is low.
So we do know, I promise you, about the job losses and plant closures particularly in manufacturing. Those on the receiving end won't thank me for saying this but some of those problems at the micro-economic level are an inevitable characteristic of every economy. Needs, tastes, technologies and productive techniques are constantly changing even in the most benign macro-economic environment, and the rise and fall of individual businesses or business sectors, as comparative advantage shifts - nationally and internationally - is a painful but necessary facet of economic  BIS Review 85/2001  1  progress. Obstructing such change cannot help in anything but the short term. The more constructive approach is to encourage the redeployment of resources to alternative activities where there is a prospect of comparative advantage. Happily that is the path - the path to greater supply-side flexibility - that is increasingly being followed by UK regional and national authorities. And it's the path being followed here in Wales by the National Assembly under First Minister Rhodri Morgan. It is the path that is being followed by the WDA and its subsidiary Finance Wales, as well as ELWa. If we know at the Bank about plant closures and job losses, we know, too, about NEDS (the Welsh National Economic Development Strategy) and we know about the new activity, creating new jobs, including, for example, Technium. I said a moment ago that some of the current micro-economic problems are inevitable - a normal and necessary facet of economic progress.

In short, given the current conjuncture, the avoidance of excessive borrowing both by the public and private sector; preference of longer maturities in all borrowings, opting to borrow in TL as much as possible and managing risks efficiently will considerably strengthen the resilience of Turkish economy against external shocks. The monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank is composed in a way to make price stability and financial stability complementary. In this context, I would like to evaluate how the CBRT will use policy tools in the upcoming period within the framework of possible scenarios provided in the inflation reports. As also demonstrated on the slide, the current conjuncture supports the CBRT’s stance of keeping policy rates constant for some time, and at low levels for a long period. On the other hand, developments in the aggregate demand composition necessitated that instruments other than the policy rate be brought to pre-crisis levels. In this respect, we have largely completed the exit strategy measures that we announced in April 2010. 2  BIS Review 174/2010  In the October Inflation Report, we stated that our baseline scenario was based on an outlook where domestic demand is stronger compared to the previous reporting period, external demand continues to restrain economic activity, and thus aggregate demand conditions continue to support disinflation, albeit to a lesser degree.
While the leu was strengthening, up until the summer of 2007, the issue of adopting the euro was not on the agenda of economic agents. The crisis highlighted the fact that the leu was overappreciated and the market made the necessary correction. Over a relatively short period – from July 2007 to date – the leu weakened by around 35 percent. Over the same period, the prospects of economic growth changed dramatically: from an almost 9.4 percent growth rate in 2008 Q3 to a most likely significant decline in 2009 Q1. The monetary and fiscal policies will be resorted to with a view to adjusting to the new environment. In face of the crisis, the relatively large stock of private foreign debt and the increased market volatility made some economic agents believe that the early adoption of the euro could supersede the need for economic policy adjustments. Yet this is not a viable option, as adopting the euro prior to having achieved the main stages of convergence with the EU might pose serious threats in the future. The adoption of the euro today would mean to relinquish monetary policy before having ensured convergence sustainability, namely before removing all the imbalances we are facing today. The outcome would consist in monetary policy being designed by the European Central Bank (ECB). But the ECB policy might prove inadequate from the standpoint of the specific problems facing the Romanian economy.

But the bigger impact on financial services, and the broader economy, is likely to come from the technology behind Bitcoins – namely the block-chain or, more generally, the distributed ledger system. •  A block chain is essentially a decentralised ownership record. •  It allows a document or asset to be codified into a digital record that is irrevocable once it has been committed into the system. •  The digital record can be accessed and verified by other parties in the system without going through a central authority. •  The potential benefits of such a distributed ledger system include: –  faster and more efficient processing;  –  lower cost of operation; and  –  greater resilience against system failure. There are many potential applications of distributed ledger systems in the financial sector: •  Ripple in the US offers a solution, based on distributed ledgers, for real-time gross settlement, currency exchange, and remittance. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  The same solution could potentially allow regulators to plug into the network to conduct surveillance of risks and to track transactions to detect money laundering or terrorist financing. In fact - and this would be of interest to the lawyers gathered here - distributed ledger systems could potentially be applied in any area which involves contracts or transactions that currently rely on trusted third parties for verification.