samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is therefore probable that the increased structural changes entailed in the liberalisation of sectors such as agriculture and the textile industry would entail demands for support to manage the changes and a better business climate in many industrial nations in order to facilitate mobility between sectors. I have previously mentioned the important work conducted with regard to creating and implementing norms and standards to prevent economic crises in different countries around the world. Despite good results, historical experiences show that crises will probably occur nevertheless. In a few cases this will lead to states experiencing payment problems. We therefore need to have a multilateral framework that can efficiently deal with any problems that arise. Both the IMF and other international forums have put a lot of work into improving crisis management in recent years. Several improvements can be noted, including collective action clauses, which are increasingly used in sovereign bond contracts and will facilitate renegotiation of sovereign bond debts in the future.3 Some progress has also been made within the framework for cooperation between the public and private sectors with regard to a voluntary code of conduct for states’ payment problems. Of course these improvements are very positive. However, my impression is that we need a coherent framework for orderly renegotiations of sovereign debt in countries facing insolvency that cover all types of debt.

According to a recent report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Saudi Arabia emerged as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Arab world in 2006, attracting $ billion in FDI, an increase of 51 percent over 2005. The global rating agencies Standards & Poors and Fitch have also raised the sovereign credit ratings of the Kingdom to A+. Also, Saudi Arabia has been upgraded according to the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index from 38th place to 23rd place in 2007. The Government has encouraged the establishment and growth of value-added industries in areas where the Kingdom has competitive advantages, namely, cheaper energy, strategic locations and availability of raw materials. King Abdullah has recently launched four megaeconomic cities in Rabigh, Hail, Al-Madinah and Jazan, which are expected to draw almost  BIS Review 150/2007  1  SR 300 billion in investment and create more than a million jobs. It is worthy to note that these economic zones are located in the less developed cities and in areas away from the existing economically developed regions and are specifically selected to ensure that development and employment opportunities are spread around the Kingdom. An important indicator of progress made in diversifying the economy is provided by the trend in our non-oil exports. Such exports were insignificant in early eighties, but they have been rising sharply in recent years. Since 2000, they have risen continuously.
On the one hand, one can argue that fewer players should result in higher prices (market-power hypothesis), but on the other hand economies of scale should give rise to lower prices (efficiency-market hypothesis). So the fact that there are only three major participants in the Swedish market does not have to be a problem from the point of view of competition as long as they are exposed to pressures from potential competitors. That presupposes, though, that it is possible for new players to enter the market. In Sweden, the municipal planning process for local site development has long been an obstacle and may well have hindered competition. The fact that food prices in Sweden are higher than in many other countries could be an indication that the first effect is the dominant one. Since 2002, however, we have seen a number of changes in the retail food sector. New foreign participants have entered the market and previously local players have branched out, shops have become bigger and the proportion of own brands has increased. •  Several foreign-owned low-price chains have set up both outside cities and in city centres. In addition, Swedish low-price chains are increasing their number of establishments. An ”unscientific” random sample that we have taken for a number of common food products – with the aim of representing the most important goods categories in the CPI – points to large  2  Source: National Institute of Economic Research. 3  Source: Fri Köpenskap.

6  See, e.g., the Swedish Competition Authority 2002a, 2002b and 2000:2. 7  Swedish Competition Authority, in cooperation with the Pensioners’ National Organisation. BIS Review 39/2005  5  this reduction being compensated for in other areas. We can also see how productivity in Sweden has grown stronger than what is usual at this stage of the business cycle. In the current debate there have been claims for some time that the Riksbank is responsible for the fact that employment has not risen faster, by not having lowered the policy rate earlier and by more, which the presently low inflation would have permitted. Like other forecasters, the Riksbank underestimated the effects on inflation of the increasingly strong global competition and productivity growth. It cannot be ruled out that employment could have been somewhat higher today if we had been able to better foresee the developments, but we are talking about small differences and far from the figures that have been mentioned in the debate. It is important to remember that the repo rate is unusually low today, which means that monetary policy is already expansionary and thus not an obstacle to consumption and investment. The main reasons behind the weak employment are rather to be found in supply factors that the Riksbank cannot influence; among other things, the incentives to start businesses and hire staff as well as the willingness of people to accept employment, move and look for new jobs.
5  King M A (2006), Speech at a dinner for Kent Business Contacts in Conjunction with the Kent Messenger Group/Kent Business, Ashford, Kent, 16 January, 2006. 6  My colleague David Miles discussed this in “The Future Financial Landscape”, a speech given at Bloomberg, 16 December, 2009. 7  An earlier estimate of world broad money growth can found in Tucker P M W (2007), “Macro, asset price, and financial system uncertainties”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2007 Q1, pp. 122–130. This version takes into account resident foreign currency deposits and non-resident deposits with banks. 6  BIS Review 21/2010  market intelligence began to report a revival in financial market “animal spirits” after the telco debt problems of 2002. 8 Obviously these wider measures of money collapsed – and, again, by more than the standard M4 measure – after the Lehman crisis. Broader measures can tell us about domestic as well as global conditions, and this may be especially important for the UK. The contraction in lending to our businesses and, to a lesser extent, to our households owes a lot to withdrawal by foreign-headquartered banks (Chart 15). Cross-border lending into the UK, particularly via syndicated lending, has shrunk. And so has lending by branches and by many (but by no means all) subsidiaries of overseas banks here. The same broad pattern seems to be true in other economies, but may be rather less significant. There is an unusually large presence of non-UK banks here, due to our hosting an international financial centre.

The Bank of England’s own November Discussion Paper was only one manifestation. Another is the IMF’s recent review of the macroeconomic policy framework. 11 The basic question is whether the authorities could lean against credit-fuelled booms by tightening capital or liquidity requirements for lenders or, as some economists have advocated, by raising the amount of collateral that borrowers have to put up. 12 In principle, this could be aimed at aggregate or sectoral credit conditions, and it could have a goal of making our banks more resilient. It would need to be pursued by executive agencies under clear mandates from legislators, and it would benefit greatly from transparency. A painful lesson for the Bank of England is that our warnings of “underpriced risk” and system-wide fragilities in our Financial Stability Reports were perhaps admired by some but made no difference. And, alongside our domestic and international peers, we are not in this for plaudits! People – the markets, firms, households – take notice of our Inflation Report, MPC minutes and speeches on monetary policy not, essentially, because they might sometimes be interesting or well done, but for the simple reason that the MPC is the body that sets sterling interest rates in the real world. If the authorities were able to deploy credible macroprudential tools, their stability warnings would probably be taken more seriously in future, because they would be able to follow up words with actions. Monetary policymakers would need to be attentive to the use of such instruments, as they would affect credit conditions.
Lim, C H, Krznar, I, Lipinsky, F, Otani, A and Wu, X (2013), “The macroprudential framework: policy responsiveness and institutional arrangements”, IMF Working Paper, WP/13/166. Maddison, A (1995), “Monitoring the world economy, 1820 – 1992”, OECD Publishing. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Newman, M E J (2005), “Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf’s law”, Contemporary Physics, Vol. 46, No. 5, pp. 323–351. Nier, E, Osinki, J, Jacome, L and Madrid, P (2011), “Institutional models for macroprudential policy”, IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN/11/18. North, D (1981), “Structure and change in economic history”, W.W. Norton & Company. North, D (1991), “Institutions”, The Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 5, No.1, pp 97–112. Olson, M (1982), “The rise and decline of nations: economic growth, stagflation and social rigidities”, Yale University Press. Olson, M (1991), “Autocracy, democracy, and prosperity”. In Strategy and choice, edited by Zeckhauser, R J. Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 131–57. Reinhart, C and Rogoff, K, (2009), “This time is different: eight centuries of financial crises” Princeton University Press. Sachs, J (2005), “The end of poverty: How we can make it happen in our lifetime”, Penguin. Simon, H A (1971), “Designing organizations for an information-rich world” in: Martin Greenberger, “Computers, Communication, and the Public Interest”, pp 38–52, John Hopkins Press. Smith, A (1759), “The theory of moral sentiments”, London: A. Millar. Veblen, T (1899), “The theory of the leisure class: an economic study of institutions”, Macmillan and Company, New York.

Where development needs are identified through FIDE Forum’s screening process, it should be able to refer candidates to the existing director education programmes provided by ICLIF, or work with ICLIF to develop new ones to respond to an unmet need. To my mind, this clarity of role and purpose will significantly enhance the potential impact and influence of FIDE Forum and ICLIF, to the overall betterment of the industry. As members of FIDE Forum, directors have a critical role to play in setting its priorities and in driving future initiatives to ensure that FIDE Forum remains relevant and continues to add value. In this respect, members should be active in giving their views, including providing inputs to concept members, engage in propagating the common interest of the industry and enhancing the good image of the sector. Conclusion The Malaysian financial sector has taken important strides to strengthen boards, in particular through the ongoing education and increase in supply of top-quality directors. The success of ICLIF’s FIDE Programme and the industry-led initiatives by FIDE Forum in pushing frontiers in developing, sourcing and attracting board-level talent would very much depend on the collective efforts of all. It is from this perspective that the FIDE Forum should be commended for initiating this effort. I encourage the industry to continue to use FIDE Forum as a platform for promoting board-level talent management and through it, to build an effective partnership with ICLIF as the centre of excellence for directors’ education in the financial sector.
The Bank sought to do this by cutting interest rates to buoy up consumer spending. And the Government stepped up its own spending, which was helpful given the international environment. Although we couldn't avoid an overall slowdown altogether - the economy on the latest data ground to a halt in the fourth quarter of last year - we have managed for most of the time to keep the UK economy as a whole moving forward despite the recession in the internationally-exposed sectors of manufacturing. Of course we'd all have been much happier with better balanced growth. Stimulating domestic demand to offset the external weakness - the only option available to us - was very much a second best option. It was not without its own risks including the build-up of household debt and the current exuberance in the housing market. But it was better than doing nothing at all. That would have meant a much sharper slowdown, and probably recession, in the economy as a whole. And, given that inflation was well under control, it would have meant a quite unnecessary loss of overall output - and income and employment. In effect we took the view that unbalanced growth was better than no growth. It is perhaps less obvious that we could not have done more to weaken the exchange rate. At around $ - 1.50, sterling's value against the dollar through this period was not seen by most people even in the internationally - exposed sectors as a particular problem.

The global upturn, higher oil prices and low interest rates have contributed to pushing up growth. After falling sharply for several years, investment on the Norwegian shelf and oil service exports expanded last year. A number of signs indicate that capacity utilisation has continued to rise in recent months. The number of employed persons as share of the working-age population has increased, and unemployment has drifted down further. There is also an increase in the number of enterprises reporting capacity constraints. Chart: Inflation has risen Consumer price inflation has increased over the past year, partly reflecting higher wage growth. Tighter labour market conditions suggest that wage growth will increase further. The risk outlook is dominated in particular by the global developments mentioned. Over the past 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  year, rising protectionism and political uncertainty have weighted on global growth. The UK’s relations with the EU have yet to be clarified. If trade tensions deepen, growth among trading partners may be lower than projected. At the same time, the krone may remain weak, if global uncertainty persist. The target for monetary policy is annual consumer price inflation of close to 2 percent over time. Inflation targeting shall be forward-looking and flexible, so that it can contribute to high and stable output and employment and to countering the build-up of financial imbalances. At its meeting in March, the Executive Board noted that the monetary stance in Norway is accommodative. Underlying inflation is a little higher than the inflation target.
After the interest rate increase has been reversed, GDP growth will pick up again. After a period, GDP will approach the level that would have been achieved with an unchanged interest rate throughout the period. The 2 results of analyses in the Bank of England are similar, but the uncertainty, of course, is considerable. The key interest rate is set on the basis of an overall assessment of the inflation outlook two years ahead. Our inflation projections and our views on the balance of risks associated with these projections provide a summary of these assessments. Due to a number of factors, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the inflation projections. Our knowledge of the functioning of the economy is far from perfect. We base our projections on simulations using the macroeconomic model RIMIMI. As the model is not an exact replica of reality, a forecast error arises. In addition, the different economic mechanisms change. Normally, this occurs gradually, but in some cases the changes may occur quickly. Moreover, it may be difficult to assess the current situation in the light of the information available at any one time. The information is often deficient, both because statistics are published with a lag and data contain measurement errors. We must also make assumptions about a number of factors when working on the projections. The economy will occasionally be exposed to events that cannot be anticipated. The terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September represent such an extreme event.

Jarle Bergo: Inflation targeting and the phasing in of petroleum revenues - a dilemma for monetary policy? Address by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the seminar on foreign exchange policy issues arranged by the Association of Economists, Gausdal, 25 January 2002. *  *  *  Introduction Since last year’s seminar, new guidelines for economic policy have been introduced. As the title of my speech suggests, these guidelines will serve as the starting point for my talk. In his presentation last year, Norges Bank’s Governor said “Monetary policy cannot function effectively without a good interplay with fiscal policy”. I will start by taking a closer look at the implementation of monetary policy before I discuss the guidelines for phasing in the petroleum revenues and the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy. Finally, I will take a look at the implications that the phasing in of petroleum revenues will have for our industry structure. These implications may pose a challenge to many, but not necessarily to monetary policy. On 29 March 2001, the Stoltenberg Government issued new guidelines for monetary policy and presented guidelines for fiscal policy. Monetary policy was to be oriented towards low and stable inflation. The inflation target was set at 2½ per cent. The guidelines for fiscal policy imply that over time, the central government budget deficit shall be equivalent to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. The change in the guidelines for economic policy met widespread support in the Storting.
Financial institutions will be required to keep proper records related to employees and to provide the required information when requested by another institution. This will guard the system against disreputable staff and enact barriers against potential threats to the integrity of the system. As guardians of the system, bankers need to look at these requirements as useful enabling tools or defenses that help with their mission to successfully protect the integrity of the system. Guardians of knowledge and wisdom The complexity scientist, Samuel Arbesman in his study of how knowledge develops, postulates that knowledge behaves like radioactive decay. Every fact has a ‘half-life’ and it will inevitably decay. It means that the frontier of knowledge also changes constantly. What we know today may be untrue tomorrow. This rings true for matters concerning banking. The immediate manner in which our knowledge becomes obsolete certainly ties in with our experience in banking and society at large. For one, the complexity of economic, environmental and social challenges seems to increase exponentially. Furthermore, much of the knowledge frontier remains unexplored. Consider this. We only utilise less than 0.5% of our existing data. There is a long way to go. The potential is enormous. In all likelihood, what we know today will be vastly different in two, five and 10 years into the future. We see this happening already in the banking sector, with the greater use of technology and in particular, more creative use of data analytics to better serve consumers and business needs.

This is indeed an ambitious and complex project, and we need your support and cooperation. I am very optimistic on this venture as the collective body of professional bankers in this room today can achieve great things if we act with professionalism, courage and vigour in our respective roles. I believe that all of you here today, the brightest minds of the banking sector, will rise confidently to the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, armed with a strong foundation in banking knowledge with a renewed commitment to the nobility of the banking profession. 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Before I end, let me say a few words about the post-election environment that we are in. The Monetary Policy Committee of Bank Negara Malaysia last Thursday, the 10th of May, and we reaffirmed that the outlook of the Malaysian economy remains strong, healthy and robust. Moving ahead, the Bank will continue to ensure orderly conditions in the onshore financial markets. Malaysia is no stranger to short term volatility given that we are an open economy that is highly integrated with global markets. Our experience tells us that we must be careful not to overreact to market noises, especially when it is caused by factors which are temporary in nature. The negative but much reduced influence of the NDF market should not detract the ringgit movements over the longer term. In the medium and long term, the ringgit will reflect Malaysia’s strong economic fundamentals.
Norges Bank will be an active owner and support companies through the climate transition, encourage climate reporting, and further develop our analysis of the fund's exposure to climate risks and opportunities. At the heart of our efforts is driving portfolio companies to net zero emissions by 2050. An operationally robust organisation helps safeguard the fund's assets. Geopolitical risk may be a greater source of uncertainty in the management of the fund in the years to come. Organised cyber-criminals are becoming increasingly specialised, sophisticated and well-funded. It is difficult to identify geopolitical events before they occur or lead to financial losses for the fund. For a large, global fund, there is nowhere to hide. Risk in the Government Pension Fund Global is reduced by diversifying its investments across asset classes, countries, sectors and companies. This should continue. The Sverdrup Committee, which is centre stage in this year's white paper, found that the fund is, in principle, well equipped for an uncertain future, but that its ability to deal with various changes and crises could be improved. We share this view and strive continuously to strengthen our situational understanding, develop our work on scenarios and stress testing, and improve our contingency planning. The Ministry of Finance announced in its white paper that it will be reviewing the matter of investing in unlisted equities. Norges Bank looks positively on this review, and we will return with our advice and assessments towards the end of the year.

For a fund such as the Government Pension Fund Global, it is important to be able to stick to the fund's long-term investment strategy in times of turmoil. Changes to the fund's strategy are subject to thorough analysis and political anchoring in the Storting. This governance structure has served us well, and I am sure that it will continue to do so in a more challenging world. With that, I will pass you to my colleague. 2/2  BIS - Central bankers' speeches