samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In addition, the yield on ten-year Confederation bonds attained a new historical low. This shows that the demand for safe investments remains high. Over the past few months, as before, movements in the Swiss franc mainly reflected the changing risk assessment of market participants. Following the ECB’s announcement in early September that it would purchase unlimited quantities of bonds of crisis-hit euro area countries under certain conditions, the upward pressure on the Swiss franc lessened. The M1, M2 and M3 monetary aggregates, which measure the amount of money held by households and companies, have increased substantially over the past few months. For this reason, some fear that we are heading for high rates of inflation. However, this is not the case. The inflation forecast for Switzerland continues to be low. At present, the inflation rate is still in negative territory. Inflationary pressure remains minimal because of the strong Swiss franc and the relatively unfavourable global growth outlook. Moreover, the underutilisation of production capacities in Switzerland is restraining the inflation outlook. Surveys on inflation expectations show that households and companies continue to assume that prices will remain stable, also in the medium term. Given the current low interest environment worldwide, enforcement of the minimum exchange rate is necessary to ensure suitable monetary conditions in Switzerland. Global uncertainty will persist for the foreseeable future and drive demand for secure investments.

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  As a result the exchange rate situation will remain fragile, despite the calmer environment that has come about as a result of the measures taken by the ECB. However, the very low interest rates around the world are also associated with risks. The longer a low interest rate phase persists, the greater the potential danger of speculative price developments and misallocations. Investors searching for yields could place increasing amounts in real estate, and this can lead, in particular, to a rise in real estate prices and thus, to a distorted pattern of incentives. Momentum in the domestic residential mortgage and real estate markets remains exceptionally strong. Mortgage lending continues to grow briskly compared to the economy as a whole. In addition, real estate prices, already at a high level, continued to rise. As a result, risks for financial stability increased further. My colleague, Jean-Pierre Danthine, will give you an assessment of the situation in the financial sector from the point of view of the SNB. Monetary and investment policy The minimum exchange rate provides us with new challenges for our monetary policy but also for our investment policy. I would therefore like to close with a few words on our foreign currency investments. As you know, in the months May to August, in particular, we had to purchase large quantities of foreign currency in order to enforce the minimum exchange rate. Consequently, the SNB’s foreign currency investments have significantly increased.
Some companies have longstanding pension fund deficits that need to be fed, if not eliminated. Others, particularly some SMEs, ought to be leveraging up as they grow but may be struggling to get sufficient credit (at least in aggregate). And many firms borrow to fund activity in the commercial property sector which remains relatively weak. Collectively the economy as a whole also needs to rebalance. The significant external trade deficit built up pre-crisis needs to close up further to be sustainable in the medium term. If this description of the changing economy is correct, why has it happened and how does that affect the outlook? Until 2008 it did not appear that the UK economy was growing faster than the very long established trend. Maybe that trend had shifted without anyone noticing? Perhaps the growth of the financial sector crowded out other industries and the financial crisis has left a hole that needs to be filled by other sectors? Perhaps globalisation has shifted activity from developed to emerging economies? The rise in global energy prices clearly makes us all worse off and is likely to be an important factor. Or maybe it is just that the crisis in Europe has turned out to be such a big drag on the UK – not just through trade but through financial markets and through general household and business confidence? The source – or sources – of the revision to income expectations will matter in the medium to long term.

For example, Etsy, the popular e-commerce website, which in many ways resembles a retail company, relies on technology to underpin its business model. But it’s not just New York City that is growing nicely. Employment levels on Long Island and in parts of upstate New York—most notably the Albany, Buffalo and Rochester metro areas—have also climbed and are at or near record highs. During my recent trip to upstate New York, I saw first-hand some of the positive developments in Rochester and Buffalo. After undergoing a prolonged period of economic transformation and reinvention, Rochester’s economy is now more diverse and dynamic than ever before. Meanwhile, the growth in Buffalo was striking. The numbers show a dramatic uptick in construction 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  employment, and the visual evidence of development was widespread. I was especially impressed with the downtown and waterfront areas, as well as the new SolarCity factory—all of which looked dramatically different than when I visited the area less than two years ago. Both of these places are well positioned for future success. On the other hand, the employment recovery has been slow to take hold in both Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, where jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak despite employment growing steadily. For Northern New Jersey, this lag is due, in part, to a stall in the growth of jobs in professional and business services. But the education and health sectors continue to add jobs, and construction employment is seeing a rebound.
The most notable example here is perhaps in the UK where the government will abolish the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and transfer its regulatory responsibility back to the Bank of England. While the UK may be an extreme case, a growing consensus has emerged that central banks should play a key role in preserving the overall stability and smooth functioning of the financial system. In this respect, having supervisory authority over systemically important financial institutions, such as commercial banks, would make the central bank’s job a little easier. Clearly, having monetary policy, lender of last resort function, and macroprudential policy under the same roof allows for better policy coordination. Ladies and Gentlemen, Against the backdrop of the changing policy philosophy in the global central banking community, let me now turn to the second part of my talk which is what the Bank of Thailand has been doing in the past few years with regard to the maintenance of financial stability. Through the 1997 Asian financial crisis, we learnt firsthand the importance of financial stability to the real economy as well as the need to preserve it. Indeed, that the Thai economy recovered rapidly from the global financial crisis this time can be attributed in part to policies that put a strong emphasis on the health of the financial system.

Since the introduction of the MPESA mobile banking service in Kenya, the number of adults with access to financial services has increased from 42% in 2011 to 75% today. Agent banking in Malaysia has provided consumers with an innovative and alternative channel to access financial services, resulting in the percentage of sub-districts served by financial services access point to increase from 46% in 2011 to 96% in 2014. This has enabled 99% of Malaysians, particularly those in rural areas, to conveniently access and benefit from financial services. The microfinance  1  “Global Financial Development Report 2014”, World Bank, 2014. 2  Discussion note “Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth”, IMF, 2014. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  institution Grameen Bank in Bangladesh has extended credit through its 2,500 branches to almost 8 million people, with 60% of them lifted from poverty. The loan recovery rate is higher than 98 percent. The experience in Bangladesh, in particular, dispels the myth that the poor is not bankable. Of proportionate regulation and the global standards The proportionate application of Global Standards for financial regulation is a critical factor in enabling innovative financial inclusion solutions, ensuring its delivery in a safe and sound manner. My remarks today will touch on the following topics: Recent developments in global standards and financial inclusion; Focus areas to advance Proportionality in Practice; and The importance of the Global Symposium to galvanise action.
That has been true of every industrial revolution. Nowhere have these costs been felt more acutely than here in Glasgow.   These disruptive side-effects do not self-heal. They need to be managed if the fruits of innovation are not to rot in the fields. That means social safety nets to protect the livelihoods of those disrupted by innovation. And it means social institutions supporting the up-skilling of people. The GSA is a social institution created precisely to meet the latter need. 2  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  2    The next 50 years may bring opportunities and challenges every bit as great as any in the past. The Fourth Industrial Revolution will offer huge potential to individuals, economies and societies. But the engine of growth may change, with artificial rather than human intelligence playing a much larger role. Some have called this Life Version 3.0.   The creative forces unleashed by the Fourth Industrial Revolution will need to be carefully managed to avoid a tear in the social fabric. This is likely to require new sets of skills, with creative and social skills at a greater premium. It may require new sets of social institutions and safety nets. And it may require a reorientation of our approach to education, training and work.   The “creative industries” are a thriving sector of the UK economy, generating £ billion of value-added each year. But, in future, we may need every industry and every worker to see themselves as creative.

Rosling, H (2018), Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About The World – And Why Things Are Better Than You Think, Sceptre. Smith, H, Parker, F, Kotze, S and Laurin, M (2013), ‘Multiple independent appearances of the cecal appendix in mammalian evolution and an investigation of related ecological and anatomical factors’, Comptes Rendus Palevol, Vol. 12, No. 6, pp. 339-354. Tegmark, M (2017), Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Allen Lane. Unger, R (2019), The Knowledge Economy, Verso. Viereck (1929), What Life Means to Einstein: An Interview by George Sylvester Viereck, The Saturday Evening Post. 22  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  22
Furthermore, developments in the domestic economy at the end of last decade were such that the stable exchange rate policy was gradually undermined. During the second half of the 1990´s, the Icelandic economy entered a period of high economic growth. Growth was initially well balanced and led by exports and increased investment in the private sector. But as it unfolded it became increasingly driven by consumption and investment in the non-traded goods sector, fuelled by a foreign financed credit expansion in the wake of intensified competition among lending institutions and a significant increase in credit availability. By 1998, signs of overheating were already increasingly visible in rising inflation and the ballooning current account deficit which climaxed in 2000 at 10 per cent of GDP. The Central Bank responded to the imbalances in the economy by tightening monetary policy. Through the effects of the tighter monetary policy, the exchange rate of the króna gradually appreciated as can be seen from Chart 1. In the spring of the year 2000 expectations in the market shifted for a variety of reasons; but concerns about the current account deficit and lower expectations of future economic growth were the most important. Subsequently the króna began to depreciate and continued to do so more or less uninterrupted, but on the whole in an orderly fashion, over a period of a year and a half until the end of November 2001. By that time, it had fallen from its peak by about a third against other currencies.

5 [6]  References Diewert, W.E and Fox, K.J. (2020), “Measuring real consumption and CPI bias under lockdown conditions”, NBER working paper series, No. 27144. Statistics Sweden (2020), press release (2020), ”Svårare beräkna inflation under coronapandemin”, (More difficult to calculate inflation during the corona pandemic) www,scb,se Statistics Sweden (2020), report to Consumer Price Index Board, ”Hantering av effekter av Corona-pandemin i KPI och HIKP”, (Managing the effects of the corona pandemic on the CPI and HICP) www,scb,se  Appendix Table 1. Products affected by lack of consumption Weight in CPI (per cent) Air package tours  1.2. Foreign air travel  0.6. Tickets to sporting events  0.4. Cinema tickets  0.2  Theatre tickets and entertainment  0.2  Entry tickets to entertainment  0.3  Total weight in CPI  2.9  Source: Statistics Sweden  6 [6]
But there are still issues and concerns about the real extent of changes in lending standards and the potential problems that rapid credit growth might pose if the global economy were to turn to a slower gear. Similarly, Asian banking systems remain relatively close to the participation of foreign banking, as compared to other emerging market regions, a development which may be foregoing important benefits in terms of modernization and competition. All in all, I would conclude that the financial sector in Asia is still lagging behind when compared to other very dynamic and exemplary sectors in the region, such as certain industries, education and technology. I believe that this imbalance may eventually become a drag for the consolidation of a sustained growth path. Therefore, the development of the financial system is of central importance for the long-term growth perspectives. Under these circumstances, banking reform and restructuring is an important challenge that many Asian economies are inclined to face. Let me tell you that in Spain we know well this challenge and its rewards. The highly successful performance of the Spanish economy over the past 20 years cannot be explained without taking into account the significant contribution by the financial sector and, in particular, by the banking system. In turn, the transformation – and improvement – of our banking system in this period has been outstanding. This is evidenced, for example, by its favourable performance in terms of profitability, efficiency and solvency, both on an absolute basis and in comparison with other countries.

2  BIS Review 94/2010  As for the banking system, we have built up sufficient bank capital, partly benefited from our prudent risk management. Our supervision developments have also come a long way. With intensive and continuous legal and regulatory reforms since the 1997 Asian crisis, our financial system is now resilient and in a good position to support growth. On this note, let me also say that the Bank of Thailand holds regular meetings with representatives from both Thai and Foreign Banks Associations, as well as meetings with their top management to discuss current issues and policy implications. This dialogue helps us to continuously strengthen risk management such that the financial system will remain in a strong position to serve the real economy efficiently. Third, thanks partly to export diversification over the years, Thai export is now recovering strongly despite a considerable shock to trades. A decade ago, Thailand relied mostly on G3 countries as our export market, but now, ASEAN market as well as BRIC (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and other new destinations are emerging strongly and help diversify risk from the G3 countries. We also did not get much impact from the European debt crisis since our exports to PIIGS countries (i.e., Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) account for only 1.8 percent of total exports. Despite an impressive export growth now, Thailand needs to become more resilient against greater competition by an increasing number of emerging markets.
One is hard pressed to find examples in history, where sovereign nation states voluntarily chose to cede or share sovereignty in the monetary field. It is therefore clear that European Economic and Monetary Union has been and will continue to be part of the wider economic and political project that the process of European integration process has represented from the very start. Monetary union is certainly not only about money. It is an important element in the very successful quest for lasting peace, stability and prosperity in Europe. This quest involves the building of trust and the sharing of sovereignty among European partners and the building of common institutions, in cases where this is desirable for the benefit of all. Europe is more than a collection of nation states, but it also stops far short of becoming a single federal entity. I do not believe that a stable monetary regime necessarily must have its root at the level of the nation state. Going back in history the international gold standard coincided with an era of stability. It was a system that was fundamentally based on rules and which transcended the nation state. Nevertheless, as a currency that is new and not linked in the traditional way to the nation state the euro does face particular challenges in winning the trust and the hearts of the people. Money is clearly regarded as more than simply a medium of exchange or a unit of account.

Norges Bank became a member of the NGFS in December 2018. The primary objective of this network is to create an arena for central banks and financial supervisors to exchange experiences and share best practices in developing environment and climate risk management in the financial sector. We consider this network to be an important meeting place to arrive at a well-considered understanding of the role and activities of central banks in this field. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
Available statistics and survey indicators continue to signal further weakness in activity in the last quarter of the year, although more recently some indicators have stabilised at low levels and financial market confidence has improved further. Over the shorter term, weak activity is expected to extend into next year, reflecting the adverse impact on domestic expenditure of weak consumer and investor sentiment and subdued foreign demand. A gradual recovery should start later in 2013 as our accommodative monetary policy stance and significant improvement in financial market confidence work their way through to private domestic expenditure, and a strengthening of foreign demand should support export growth. This assessment is reflected in the December 2012 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between –0.6% and –0.4% for 2012, between –0.9% and 0.3% for 2013 and between 0.2% and 2.2% for 2014. Compared with the September 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downwards. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The Governing Council continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook for the euro area. These are mainly related to uncertainties about the resolution of sovereign debt and governance issues in the euro area, geopolitical issues and fiscal policy decisions in the United States possibly dampening sentiment for longer than currently assumed and delaying further the recovery of private investment, employment and consumption.

Niklaus Blattner: System stability and monetary policy Summary of a speech by Mr Niklaus Blattner, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Berne, Berne, 31 January 2006. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  For a number of years the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been devoting considerable attention to the interaction between system stability and monetary policy. The aim is to arrive at an assessment of the current situation. The results obtained so far have been very useful, but there is still work to be done in implementing them and developing them further. Our point of departure is an analysis comparable to that presented in the 2005 Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). From basic research papers published by the BIS we can conclude that, where financial systems are liberalised, a monetary policy that responds exclusively to short-term risks to price stability will promote the elasticity of economic systems. Only if monetary policy also responds to cumulative disequilibria in financial markets can this elasticity be limited. A monetary policy response of this kind can be achieved through coordination with macroprudential and microprudential instruments. With this in mind, we turn to the activities of the SNB. The primary objective of the National Bank’s monetary policy and its contribution to the stability of the financial system is to supply the economy with liquidity.