samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Although fuel prices have since receded, the effects of the price correction in the real estate sector – the root cause of the financial crisis – as well as the fall in stock market prices continue to be felt. In Europe in the third quarter, GDP recorded a second successive fall. Despite the recent depreciation of the euro, exports have been hit by the slowdown in global demand. This is especially true of Germany, which is highly export-dependent. By prompting a revision of plans to expand production capacity, first in the export industry and then in the upstream production chain, the fall in exports has led to a downturn in demand for equipment  BIS Review 157/2008  1  investment. Moreover, in some countries, for instance Spain and Ireland, construction activity has been affected by a significant correction in property prices. The picture is more mixed in Asia. Japan and some emerging economies in the region will probably not be able to escape a brief recession, but on the whole economic activity should continue to advance, albeit less strongly than previously expected. In addition, the emerging economies in Latin America and Eastern Europe, which until now have been heavily dependent on capital inflows, could experience a marked slowdown in growth. Thus, what was merely a risk scenario at our September assessment is now becoming reality. The advanced economies have more or less moved into recession simultaneously. The crisis in the financial sector has finally spread to the rest of the economy.

By contrast, the inflation outlook has improved appreciably. This has increased the SNB’s room for manoeuvre. Finally, there is a risk that the financial crisis will cause a deterioration in financing conditions for the economy as a whole. These are the considerations that have prompted today’s decision to cut the three-month Libor target range by another 50 basis points. Given the expected deterioration in the Swiss economy and the imponderables linked to the long and variable monetary policy transmission lags, a further rate cut appears appropriate. With this action we are reducing, to the extent possible, the risk of an even more pronounced economic downturn. Inflation forecast chart How has our inflation forecast been revised? The dashed red curve on the chart represents the new forecast. It covers the period from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2011, and maps the future development of inflation on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains unchanged at 0.5% over the forecasting period. For purposes of comparison, the dash-dotted green curve shows the inflation forecast of the September monetary assessment, based on a three-month Libor of 2.75%. The new forecast shows a rapid fall in inflation over the next few quarters. It drops back below the 2% mark as from the fourth quarter of this year.
With that in mind, I would like to suggest four strategic priorities for financial stability authorities as we navigate an uncertain future. First, authorities need to remain vigilant. While the global financial system is now on a stronger footing, the IMF reminded us that near-term risks to global financial stability have risen modestly, while medium term risks remain elevated. Emerging economies face mounting pressures that continue to see more volatile capital flows. Tightening financial conditions may also expose financial fragilities that have been created over an extended period of easy monetary conditions. 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  In addition, structural changes in the financial system are giving rise to new risks, including those presented by a growing shadow banking system and fintech players which might not fall within the regulatory net. Roboadvisors, algorithmic trading and other automated trading platforms powered by AI also have the potential to induce highly disruptive procyclical market behaviour, notwithstanding their substantial benefits in reducing transaction costs and increasing market liquidity. And of course, there are cyberthreats with the global cost of cybercrime projected to reach $ trillion in 2019. Both the tools and coverage of surveillance activities to support financial stability have evolved significantly in the post-crisis period. It is imperative that authorities continue to build on this to capture current and future emerging risks.

If the economy is close to its underlying potential, a fiscal stimulus will end up mostly in inflation rather than growth. This brings us to the next broad theme of 2017: the return of inflation and the tightening of financial conditions globally. The normalisation of US monetary policy Global inflation, which was weighed down by the fall oil prices during the past two years, has started to gradually pick up again. Energy prices have rebounded off their lows and commodity prices appear to have bottomed out. On a global basis, producer prices have started to rise since early 2016, in tandem with the recovery of commodity and industrial input prices. 3/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  Even in China, producer prices have turned positive, following 4 years of deflation. Globally, we could see a stronger pass-through from producer prices to inflation in 2017. In the US, to the extent that fiscal stimulus boosts demand and lifts inflation towards the Fed’s target, it could precipitate a faster pace of interest rate normalisation than currently priced in. The normalisation of monetary policy is a good thing and is to be welcomed. It would be in line with stronger economic growth and waning deflation risks. Faster growth in the US will be good for emerging Asia. A gradual rise in interest rates away from the zero lower bound will also be good for financial stability, helping to stem the build-up in debt and cool inflated asset prices.
Supervisory review of capital Supervisory review and market discipline are two other elements that can create incentives for responsible behavior, and are of such importance to contemporary supervisory thinking that they have also been adopted as two of the three "pillars" of the Basel Committee’s proposal to revise the international standards on bank capital requirements. There’s been a good deal of public discussion about the first pillar, in which the Committee recommended changes to the guidelines that set minimum capital requirements for banks. Tonight I will concentrate on the importance of the other two in promoting financial stability. Adequate capital is, of course, the foundation of a safe banking system, as it provides banks with a "cushion" against unexpected losses. Supervisors aim to ensure that banks set aside sufficient capital relative to the underlying risks that each institution faces, including whether the banks are addressing the relationship between different kinds of risk. This will be no easy task, as banks under the new Capital Accord will increasingly rely on their own internal models to determine the kinds of risk they face and to what degree. The Basel Committee proposed that supervisors review the methodologies through which banks set their capital levels to ensure that banks have an incentive to develop effective processes for aligning their capital levels with their risks.

In the United States, the risk-focused approach that the Federal Reserve and other bank supervisors have adopted over the past five years allows us to tailor a supervisory plan appropriate for each bank. This marks a radical shift in the way that we evaluate a bank’s condition in the United States. Rather than reviewing mainly the quality of individual loans and other items on a bank’s balance sheet, for example, our bank examiners now try to identify the most important risks to which each bank is exposed – and then determine whether bank management employs robust processes to control those risks. This is a much more "top-down" approach to supervision, as we are evaluating the integrity of the managerial process in a bank rather than only testing the strength and quality of individual transactions. This helps us to determine whether a bank that is healthy today will continue to be so in  2  BIS Review 35/2001  the future. I’m pleased to note that banks have welcomed this change in approach, as we have enhanced our ability to compare the quality of one bank’s control structure to those of other banks that face similar risks. We thus are better able to share our views of the "best practices" we see in industry risk management.
1 High income growth and a sharp rise in the number of households laid the basis for a sharp, long-term rise in house prices. Self-reinforcing mechanisms were also at work, generating an atmosphere approaching euphoria. People hurried to buy dwellings in order to take advantage of the rise in value. It now appears that the housing market is cooling after an almost three-fold rise in prices in real terms in the course of the past 14 years. House price inflation has been accompanied by strong growth in household debt. Household debt in Norway is now about twice the level of disposable income, making the debt-income ratio higher than ever. At the same time, saving is declining and now seems to be negative. This means that in addition to fully financing their housing investments through mortgages, households are also raising loans to finance current consumption. As I mentioned earlier, the favourable developments in the Norwegian economy of the past few years are primarily due to supply-side changes. A flexible inflation target for monetary policy – as in Norway and a number of other countries – provides a sound basis for coping with the shocks to our economy that have occurred in recent years. The aim of preventing  1  See Elisabeth Fevang og Knut Røed (2006): ”Veien til uføretrygd i Norge” (The road to disability pensions in Norway), Report No. 10 2006, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research. Norwegian only.

The "leader" – the social partners – can internalise the monetary policy response and take the "follower’s" – Norges Bank’s – response to their actions into account. This approach is most relevant when wage setting is centralised. A number of studies2 have shown that countries with a relatively high degree of centralisation and coordination, such as Norway, can achieve relatively low unemployment. When wage-setting is decentralised, monetary policy will instead influence wage growth via market mechanisms, by stabilising aggregate demand for goods, services and labour. Monetary policy that is flexibly oriented towards low and stable inflation will function well whether wages are set at the central, local or individual level. 2 In the initial period after the introduction of the inflation target in 2001, it appeared that the social partners had not yet internalised the response pattern ensuing from the monetary policy mandate. We are now well into a cyclical phase with very high capacity utilisation and low unemployment. In this situation, there may be a risk that wage growth will again accelerate. On the other hand, the experience gained by the social partners that large pay rises push up interest rates may have the effect of curbing pay increases. In local wage negotiations at enterprise level, competition, the supply of foreign labour and the possibility of outsourcing or relocating activities may dampen the impact. Low and stable inflation should not be taken for granted. Norway’s and other countries’ economic history shows that inflation and inflation expectations can become unhinged.
Also, in cooperation with the Institute of Archaeology, a one-week seminar was organised on Ancient coins, attended by the students of history, archaeology and cultural heritage. This year commemorates the pan-national Year of Skanderbeg, our National Hero. The Museum 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  has organised temporary exhibitions, displayed both inside and outside the Museum, on the figure of Skanderbeg, featured in the Albanian currency. Financial education has been given an important focus in the work of the Museum. Throughout the year, many students and young people have been involved in educational activities and projects, actively participating during the Money Week events, attending the lectures held at the Museum, and using our educational publications and products. The Museum will continue to work in these two aspects by supporting: i) the scientific, economic, and monetary history of the country; and ii) the financial education of the new generations, with the support and cooperation with the most distinguished actors in these fields. As an institution that keeps and promotes an important part of the cultural heritage of the country, such as the currency, we are privileged and obliged to collaborate in order for the Museum of the Bank of Albania not to be just an exposition of the rare collections, but a place where the public may find adequate and specialised literature and expertise to learn about the economic and monetary history, and become more financially educated.

Consequently, the availability and quality of economic data represent a key factor to the development of timely and accurate economic research, to the maximisation of benefiting from them, as well as to the minimization of wrong decision-making and the costs it carries over. Unfortunately, the availability and quality of these data cannot be labelled as satisfactory. In addition to problems of collecting and calculating the statistical basis, the data base is related to and influenced by the speed and various stages of the development of the Albanian economy and by the changes of policies promoted by the taking place of these stages. The Bank of  BIS Review 132/2007  1  Albania has continuously and will constantly call on the improvement of economic data. In this context, today’s workshop places special emphasis on the discussion of the estimations and approximation of some economic time series for some important economic indicators, as well as on their role in the development, ethics and the quality of research of empirical nature. Economic research is essential for a wide range of areas. Hence, no institution can and less can a small central bank cope by itself with all the needs for economic research. Quite contrary, the institutions need to identify the areas and issues of economic research where they possess certain comparative advantages and then, closely cooperate with each other.
Hence, the auditor, including the internal auditor, is still a watchdog and not a bloodhound. 4  BIS Review 143/2007

Norway emerged from the crisis at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s without a persistent fall in employment. This is because wage formation functioned well. Wage determination was coordinated, with substantial emphasis on overall employment. Wage discipline provided the authorities with the leeway to stimulate the economy, with limited risk of higher inflation. This policy yielded positive results. As regards unemployment and inflation in Europe in the 1990s, Norway is among the top performers. There may be many explanations for the wide differences in labour market performance across countries. Historical and cultural factors may play a significant role. On the other hand, certain common features and systematic differences should be duly noted. Among other things, the effectiveness of labour market programmes, the degree of coordination in wage formation, employment protection legislation (EPL), social security schemes and the education system may be important factors. 8  BIS Review 11/2002  As in Norway, labour markets in continental Europe are marked by extensive employment protection legislation, which implies substantial restructuring costs for companies. The higher the level of employment protection, the more an employee is perceived as a long-term investment and the more cautious the employer must be with regard to hiring. On the other hand, a high level of employment protection can motivate employers to develop skills among their employees. With a centralised and coordinated wage formation process, the social partners can take account of overall employment in wage negotiations. The Scandinavian countries and Austria have organised wage determination in this way.
And it is founded on the belief that we can have a far greater impact by coming together, than we could acting alone. This is embodied in the National Strategy for Financial Literacy 2019 – 2023 which is a product of FEN. The National Strategy is centred around five Strategic Priorities that serve to anchor initiatives by FEN members to enhance the financial capability of Malaysians, thereby encouraging alignment and creating synergies. So what are these Strategic Priorities? First, nurturing values from young; Second, increasing access to financial management information, tools and resources; Third, inculcating positive behaviour among targeted groups, including the youth, selfemployed and those entering the workforce; Fourth, boosting long term financial and retirement planning; and Fifth, building and safeguarding wealth. Since the launch of the National Strategy in July 2019, FEN members and partners, working in collaboration with the government, business community and education sectors have undertaken over 400 education programmes and initiatives, covering a wide and diverse spectrum of the public that saw more than 47 million interactions with FEN’s various outreach programmes. A key achievement by FEN members working collaboratively has been the integration of financial education elements into all levels of the formal school curriculum, from pre-school right up to upper secondary levels. Financial education modules have also been introduced as electives in college programmes.

These new measures led to an average annual growth of 7.5% over the four years, 2010 to 2013 and thus, the vicious cycle was converted into a new virtuous cycle, with inflation in single digits, shrinking debt to GDP ratios, and low interest rates. In 2009, Sri Lanka also faced another major challenge: the threat to its external account. The effect of Global Financial Crisis had impacted Sri Lanka, and large scale overseas bond redemptions had resulted. It was soon clear that some external support was required to stave off this challenge, and Sri Lanka decided to avail itself of the IMF facilities via a stand-by arrangement (SBA). The key  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  objective of the SBA was for Sri Lanka to build up its foreign reserves to more comfortable levels to meet the uncertain global environment. The issue however was that the IMF, in its conventional wisdom, was insisting that Sri Lanka sharply depreciates its currency in order to curb its trade and current account deficits which, in their view, would help the country to build up reserves. The IMF also held the view that Sri Lanka must significantly increase government revenue by raising taxes. In theory and normal circumstances, IMF’s suggestions may have had merit. However, the Sri Lankan authorities who had a deep practical understanding of the socio-economic challenges facing Sri Lanka, held a different view.
High and chronic inflation culminated in the adoption of short-term approaches, by adversely affecting expectations, investment and production decisions and deteriorating resource allocation in the economy, which brought along low and volatile rates of growth and employment and aggravated injustice in income and wealth distribution. We have experienced all the damage of inflation in Turkey, so we expect all sections of the public to support our fight against inflation and defend the achievements we have made so far. It should be borne in mind that striving for price stability means striving for creating an environment where people can make a living, make investments and can look to the future with confidence. With this respect, price stability is a goal that cannot be sacrificed for any other priority or target. Thanks to the policies implemented by our Bank, great progress was made in the disinflation process: inflation, which was 73.2 percent at the beginning of 2002, was recorded as 10.26 percent in August 2006. Within the framework of the fight against inflation, the Central Bank of Turkey adopted the formal inflation-targeting regime as the monetary policy strategy at the beginning of 2006. Now, I would like to mention a few points that I believe are important with respect to the adoption of the inflation targeting regime. Studies on the inflation targeting regime as a monetary policy strategy were initiated at our Bank in 2000.

Lastly, I would like to emphasize that the level of the current account deficit is not so important in terms of ensuring that it does not follow a volatile course and is not perceived as a significant risk factor. However, in an environment where turbulences are observed in the markets and uncertainty perceptions are increasing, it is reasonable to expect a surge in the perceptions of fragility in the current account deficit, as well as the popularity of these perceptions. The current account deficit is a closely followed indicator. We are also aware of the risk potential of the current account deficit and have been carefully monitoring it in coordination with other agents responsible for the economy. Dear guests, I was most honored to be here in Malatya and to have the chance to share my views on the Bank’s policies and macroeconomic developments with you today. Thank you. 10  BIS Review 89/2006