samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Within the Bank, the Financial Stability Committee occupies a similar position in relation to financial stability as the MPC does for monetary stability. Bank staff present papers to the Financial Stability Committee evaluating the overall conjunctural position and reviewing issues of specific concern. The staff assessment of financial stability is shared with the Treasury and FSA and discussed with them in the Standing Committee, set up under the MoU, that meets each month to monitor financial stability and to consider issues of common concern. The objective is to identify sources of instability before problems emerge, to be in a position to take preventative action or to respond quickly in the event of trouble. The Bank sets out to articulate publicly its financial stability role and to communicate current concerns by the publication semi-annually of the Financial Stability Review. Each edition includes an overview of financial stability providing an assessment of current threats to the system, ranging from imbalances  1  BIS Review 70/2000  in the major industrialised economies or debt structures in EMEs, to sectoral issues such as equity market volatility or gearing in the telecoms industry. While other commentators may talk of economic miracles, you can rely on central banks to find disaster waiting in the wings! But if surveillance feeds off central bankers’ capacity to worry, then crisis prevention and crisis resolution, working on rules to minimise the risk or the cost of a financial crisis, may be the only prospect for us to get a decent night’s sleep.

But the official sector could possibly mitigate their cost by establishing a coherent framework for crisis management, with payment suspensions as one of the tools. None of this is at all to suggest that the issue of standstills - in or outside the Bank of England - is fully articulated and concluded. It is a difficult area requiring contributions from all sides and the  BIS Review 70/2000  8  intellectual argument is ongoing. Finding the right balance between rules and discretion, in this area as in so many, remains a key issue for policymakers. There is work to be done on the modalities of how standstills might operate in different crisis cases. What is the role of the IMF in the standstill process? Does the process need to be underpinned by statute or would non-statutory principles suffice? And when might a standstill require capital controls to guard against leakage? The Bank is currently working on some of these issues, practical and conceptual. I would encourage those among you with an interest in international public policy to help us in addressing them, joining the growing number of, in particular, US academics who are exploring this topic. It is very much a live debate and I have no doubt these issue will be discussed at length, at and around the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Prague later this month. Conclusion I have now talked myself - quite literally - to a standstill.
•  In 2014, 43 countries ranked China as their top export market, higher than the comparative figure for the US, at 31. The recent slowdown in the Chinese economy and volatility in its financial markets have therefore sparked fears that the Chinese economy was headed for a “hard landing” and that it would drag down much of Asia with it. But much like the dreams of a vast insatiable market two centuries ago, today’s fears are understandable but overblown. To many, China’s economy seems like what Winston Churchill described the Soviet Union half a century ago: “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. China is indeed a complex economy but is not necessarily beyond comprehension. China’s economy is at a major inflection point. It is facing three necessary but significant challenges at the same time: •  First, the Chinese economy is adjusting to a lower rate of growth. Managing this moderation without major dislocation is a key priority for China’s policymakers. •  Second, China is addressing risks and vulnerabilities in its economy and financial system. Doing this without triggering a crisis of confidence is another key priority. •  Third, China’s economy is undergoing perhaps the most comprehensive and ambitious structural reform programme of any country in modern times. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In the short term, these three objectives may at times be in conflict, presenting a trilemma of difficult trade-offs for policymakers.

•  Local governments are now allowed to raise funds in the bond market, reducing their reliance on land sales to fund expenditures. •  And earlier this week, on 1 May, China replaced all business turnover taxes with a more efficient value-added tax (VAT). But work remains in the areas of reducing off-budget spending, strengthening social spending, and refining environmental and property taxes. Domestic financial liberalisation is another area where the glass is half full and half empty. A lack of depth and sophistication in China’s domestic financial market has limited the returns on household savings, indirectly crimping their purchasing power. It has also restricted financing to promising businesses. •  China has taken the important step of liberalising interest rates. •  But it also needs to develop deeper and broader capital markets. This will help better price risk capital and ensure that financing flows to more productive economic activities. China has proceeded with capital account liberalisation in a careful and systematic way, “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. •  Since 2008, the use of RMB outside China has been permitted for all current account transactions. •  Capital account transactions in RMB were subject to various quotas and schemes, which have been progressively expanded. •  And late last year, China allowed foreign institutions to issue bonds in China’s onshore interbank bond market for the first time.
The events range from small random informal gatherings to large-scale highly organised events to celebrate women’s advancement while highlighting the need for continued vigilance and action. A good number of Governments around the world, have made commitments to promote gender equality, by among other things, taking initiatives to integrate gender perspectives into national budgets or development plans in order to reflect the differentiated needs of women and men. Zambia is no exception. In Zambia, it is recognised that the creation of the Ministry of Gender and Women in Development, is a deliberate effort by the Government to ensure that the needs of women are addressed. Through the Ministry we are able to recognise the strides that have been made by women in national development and we look ahead to the challenges that are before us as we strive to achieve our goal of gender equality. In addition, Zambia is a signatory to the SADC Declaration on Gender and Development. This declaration calls for the equal representation of women and men in the decision making process of member states at all levels. I must concede here that, although we have made significant strides as a country in women representation, more still needs to be done. We are however encouraged that there are a good number of women with potential and ability to rise above any form of challenge.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Fifteen months of financial crisis – a status report Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Associazione Bancaria Ticinese, Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 3 December 2008. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The financial crisis broke out a little over fifteen months ago. The magnitude of the turmoil experienced by the financial industry has been greater than all the forecasts. So far, our entire attention has been focused on the problems of the financial industry, while the real economy appeared to be passing through this difficult period without too many problems. We now realise that this view was deceptive: the situation in the non-financial sector is deteriorating substantially. This could lead to new challenges in 2009. After having benefitted extensively from the international expansion of the past few years, we are currently experiencing the consequences of a widespread recession. This situation is difficult for our country, but we may be better placed than others for coping with it. BIS Review 150/2008  1
Well-trained directors can be firm hands in steering companies through pitfalls which may appear. In such an uncertain environment, it will be critical to reinforce the confidence of stakeholders in how our companies are run. This will require both the government and the private sector to play our part. 6. On the regulators’ end, we will continue to make sensible rules that are practical and outcome focused. We will also continue to keep our rules up to date. The Corporate Governance Council, established by MAS, is reviewing the Singapore Code of Corporate Governance and will submit its recommendations to MAS. On its part, the private sector must nurture a pool of well-trained and ethical directors. 7. Being a director will become increasingly demanding. Companies’ operations are getting more international, and the markets for raising capital becoming more complex. Expectations of directors by stakeholders are also growing. 8. Directors are now exposed to substantial legal and reputational risk if they do not, or are perceived not to have, discharged their fiduciary duties for the company. For example, directors of BP have been sued by shareholders over the costs associated with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Directors of AIG were also sued for not adequately monitoring the firm’s exposure to the subprime mortgage market. BIS Review 164/2010  1  9. Directors should not become defensive or legalistic in face of these challenges.

We all know that stable conditions make it easier to arrive at wise economic decisions. When wages and prices chase each other in an unpredictable way, and both interest rates and the exchange rate fluctuate widely as a result of this, with a certain amount of luck or smartness it is sometimes possible to do good business. But most people surely realise that this is not the best setting for either long-term investment or for those who have to live on an earned income or a pension. The head of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, has formulated his view of what monetary policy’s objective should be in roughly these words: inflation should be so low that economic agents do not have to worry about it. Limited room for employment policy Why, then, are there those who still argue that higher inflation would be a good thing? I believe this is mainly because they perceive a conflict between price stability and low unemployment. This perception in turn has its roots in a short-run, cyclical perspective. When economic activity is rising or falling on account of transitory demand fluctuations around a long-term trend, this negative relationship does exist. Rising demand for goods and services generates increased demand for labour and lower unemployment; this tends to be accompanied by rising wages and higher inflation. The opposite also applies. But this does not mean that higher inflation results in permanently higher employment and lastingly lower unemployment.
At the Banque de France and the ECB we have been conducting extensive listening exercises and the issue has been frequently raised by the general public. Moreover, to what extent financial stability concerns should figure in monetary policy decisions is a perennial debate. Most central banks have a separation principle in which monetary policy and financial stability, to be dealt with by macroprudential policy, are kept entirely distinct. This clear division of responsibilities has worked well but I think recent developments have tipped the balance in favour of more integrated approach. First, we are no longer in a linear world. When r* is very low, there is a fundamental asymmetry created by the effective lower bound on interest rates. We have created substitute instruments to compensate for the impotence of conventional monetary policy at the effective lower bound but these instruments, although still effective, have some adverse side effects on excessive risk taking. Second, the macroprudential instruments we actually have, while remaining the first and main line of defense, are insufficient to address the whole range of financial stability concerns. We should not be Panglossian, in the phrase of Charlie Bean vii. Consequently we must accept that financial stability concerns have to be a factor in the setting of other instruments, and in particular monetary policy. This is the more integrated approach that I want to plead for. This does not imply a systematic (mechanical) reaction to financial stability indicators, and it is very different from the leaning against the wind strategy.

However, in contrast to the uncertainties created by securities valuations in 2008 and 2009, banks should largely be in good positions to forecast the loan losses facing them, using their internal models, and they should thus be in a better position to manage the potential future write-downs without unexpected capital shortages. The second risk that we have identified within the euro area financial system relates to vulnerabilities of financial institutions associated with concentrations of lending exposures to commercial property and to Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. You may recall that, in the December issue of the FSR, we drew your attention to these two types of exposures. Since then, in the commercial real estate sector, prices and rents have continued to fall in most euro area countries, although at a moderating pace. Reflecting this deterioration, estimates of losses facing banks on their commercial property loan portfolios had been revised upwards by almost 50% over the past six months, as shown in Chart 7 on slide 12, and concerns remain about concentrations of such exposures among some euro area banks. This increase in estimated losses on commercial property loans is expected to more than offset the recovery in the valuations of commercial mortgage-backed securities held by banks in the euro area. As regards banks’ exposures to the CEE region, since December, the economic outlook in the region has improved.
6  15  0  -5  2  1983-2011 Wage Fitted 1971-1982 inflation 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4 6 8 10 12 Unemployment rate  Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream  Chart 14: Inflation Report forecast errors on wage growth and unemployment Unemployment  Wages  Percentage points  4 2 0 -2 -4 -6  2005Q2  2007Q2  2009Q2  2011Q2  2013Q2  Source: ONS and Bank calculations. Notes: Chart shows one year ahead errors. Wage forecasts were for Average Earnings Index until 2010Q2 and Average Weekly Earnings thereafter. The discontinuation of the AEI series in 2010Q2 means it is not possible to calculate wage forecast errors for forecasts made between 2009Q3 and 2010Q2, so those observations are left blank. See Yellen (2014). BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Even after making these adjustments, however, the wage puzzle has persisted. This can be seen by comparing the actual and estimated paths of wages from the Bank’s suite of wage equations, using as inputs the Bank’s estimates of “slack” in the labour market, as well as productivity and other wage determinants. Wage growth has consistently and significantly undershot its expected path, even after controlling for slack and other shocks. Cumulatively, this undershoot is large, with the level of wages more than 2% below predicted estimates over the past two years. There are a number of possible explanations for this wage puzzle. These have potentially quite different implications for future wage growth and hence policy.

Finally, and crucially, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, we are working with our colleagues in Washington, D.C., and at other agencies to help put the nation’s financial system on a firmer footing. Yet, much remains to be done and we are determined to keep at it. I recognize fully that there can be no return to pre-crisis business as usual – whether on the part of the financial sector or on the part of regulators like ourselves. All in all, there is a lot to keep my colleagues busy. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  National economic conditions Now, let me update you on national economic conditions. We stand here today several years after the worst financial crisis in modern times. The origins of the crisis are complex, but it had its roots in the bursting of a credit bubble that had grown to great size during the middle part of the last decade. Prior to the onset of the crisis, a combination of rapid financial innovation and imbalanced global economic integration resulted in a mispricing of risk worldwide. This was particularly extreme in certain markets such as U.S. housing and housing finance. This mispricing of risk led to a misallocation of resources and an excessive build-up of debt in many parts of the global economy. Many – though not all – U.S. households responded to the easy availability of credit and rising home prices by taking on more debt.
Are we doomed to end up like the ancient civilisation dwelling on Easter island, which prospered for hundreds of years, living off a tree whose reproductive cycle exceeded the life-time of an individual, and for which reason no one had ever bothered to replant as existing trees died off? The second question probably provides a clue towards understanding the issue surrounding the first. If a section of society makes a sacrifice to reform, the benefits derived in the process may accrue to the rest of society in a greater proportion than to the people making the sacrifice. The obvious solution to this dilemma would be for all sectors of society to share in the costs and benefits of reform in an equitable manner. And this is where Government and all the other social partners have a crucial role to play. It is to take the lead in agreeing on a programme of reforms and carrying their respective constituencies with them. The Malta Council for Economic and Social Development could, I believe, provide a congenial forum for this purpose. But try we must because the challenge is a formidable one and we should not labour under any illusion that it can be wished away. This is not a time for carrying on as usual. Nor is it a time for behaving as though the universal laws of economics or current world realities do not apply to us.

Its implementation would entail far-reaching implications on a wide range of issues relating to areas such as legal, regulatory, policy, financial stability, privacy, cybersecurity, and interaction with existing payment methods. We also understand that e-HKD would be a critical and complex financial infrastructure project that may take years to complete. Therefore, we announced in September last year that we would adopt a three-rail approach to pave the way for possible implementation of e-HKD: Rail 1 aims to lay the technology and legal foundations for supporting the implementation of e-HKD. Rail 2 focuses on application research and pilots, and it runs in parallel with Rail 1. Rail 3 is concerned about launching e-HKD, which will depend on the actual progress made under Rail 1 and Rail 2, as well as the pace of relevant market development. This comprehensive three-rail approach will ensure that Hong Kong continues to play a leading role in the global financial landscape by getting ourselves ready as best as we can in terms of implementing retail CBDC. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  e-HKD Pilot Programme Today's event marks the commencement of the e-HKD Pilot Programme, which is a key component under Rail 2. It is a tremendous opportunity for the HKMA to work with the industry to consider different use cases and design choices, and co-create new payment functionalities and infrastructures that could add value to society. We look forward to this public-private partnership in shaping the future of money in Hong Kong.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Speech - National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia 8th Research Conference Speech by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia 8th Research Conference, co-organised with the European Investment Bank, Skopje, 28 April 2022. *** Respectable Minister of Finance, Mr.Besimi, Governors and central bank board members, VP of European Investment Bank, Ms Pavlova VP of European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, Mr.Bowman, Alternate Executive Director of IMF, Mr Dresse, Representatives of IMF, EIB, EBRD and BIS, Representatives of the banking sector, Representatives of academia, Distinguished guests, It is my great pleasure and honour to address you at the opening of the Conference co-organised with the EIB. This conference holds a special meaning for us. It marks three decades of monetary sovereignty, denoted by an independent central bank and stable national currency. It has been a long journey requiring a lot of efforts, knowledge and courage to withstand many turbulences. We have confronted many mountains at the very beginning of the transition in particular. However, as it is said "No matter how high a mountain you think has come in front of you- take small steps every day and you will eventually reach its summit''. Indeed, continuous prudent steps have resulted in a long-lasting delivery of low and stable inflation and exchange rate, as a foundation for the overall macroeconomic stability. Unfortunately, at this very moment we have once again faced new challenges, i.e.

The main questions in the LFS are about employment status: do you have a job and, if not, are you looking for one? (If your answer to the second question is “yes” you are counted as unemployed, if “no”, economically “inactive”.) As well as these headline numbers,  the UK and the terms of trade have been broadly constant in recent years. Thus the only source of real wage growth, over time, is productivity growth. 4  The inverse relationship between the NAIRU and productivity growth has been noted in many countries (Staiger et al (2001), Slacacek (2005)) nor is real wage resistance the only possible reason for the link. More micro-founded approaches to the labour market, based on the costs of job search, also predict a negative relationship between trend productivity growth and the natural rate of unemployment. In that setting, in which employers trade off the cost of search against the prospective surplus from a new job, lower expected growth in productivity reduces the present value of that surplus and lowers the rate of job creation. The canonical description of this “capitalisation” effect is due to Pissarides (2000). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the ONS’s monthly labour market release publishes standard summary statistics about the duration of unemployment and the reasons for inactivity. But, at least since 1994, the LFS has also included a host of questions about the characteristics of employees and their jobs. These are listed in Table 1.