samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While these ever emerging technologies such as Digital transformation, Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, Cloud Computing, Enterprise Mobility and Mobile Banking, have brought about efficiency and increased innovations, they have also exposed the financial services sector to cybercrime. Some notable incidents of 1|Page  cybercrime include, the attack on the Central Bank of Bangladesh, Russian retail bank and seven banks in the United Kingdom. The financial services sector is a key target by criminals because it is the custodian of large amount of funds in the economy. For this same reason, the financial services sector has to also deal with other types of risks, which among others include, fraud, extortion, money laundering, illicit financial flows, market manipulation, data theft, and currency attacks. With statistics showing an increase of cyber-attacks in the financial sector, the importance of ensuring that our institutions are cyber resilient cannot be over-emphasized. Ladies and gentlemen, the financial services sector has to see cybersecurity for what it is, a large scale operational risk deserving the utmost attention and thus develop the necessary systems and cultures throughout the sector to deal with this risk. Key to the development and operation of these systems and cultures is the need to nurture talent capable of addressing cyber security threats through prompt detection, investigation, reporting, prosecution and prevention. Distinguished participants, let me also emphasize that cyber risks should be viewed from an enterprise-wide perspective.

And left unattended, these vulnerabilities are only likely to intensify.25 III. Policy Implications How should monetary policy makers respond to these challenges? In the short term, they must play the hand they’ve been dealt. The prevalence of dollar invoicing means using the flexibility in inflation targeting. 22  In addition to the direct costs of financing these reserves, there have been indirect costs including the crowding out of domestic investment. 23 Rachel, L and Smith, T (2015), ‘Secular drivers of the global real interest rate’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 571, estimate that the savings glut has lowered global real rates by 25 basis points over the past 30 years. 24 See ‘Real interest rates and risk’, speech by Gertjan Vlieghe given at the Society of Business Economists’ Annual conference, 15 September 2017. 25 If history serves as a guide, EMEs’ external liabilities could double as a share of GDP by 2030: market-based finance could then account for half of external liabilities and investment funds could represent 40% of market-based finance flows to EMEs. By 2030, the reduction in sustainable capital flows arising from push factors could completely cancel out the positive impact stemming from domestic reforms in EMEs over the past two decades. To offset this reduction in the sustainability of EME capital flows, their reserves would have to double over the next ten years.
But the economic outcomes have been dramatically worse. A key difference here is that property price rises – unlike big rises in equity prices – are invariably accompanied by big increases in debt. So when property prices fall they are more likely to create solvency problems – and funding problems associated with heightened solvency risks – than when equity prices fall. My colleague Adam Posen recently presented evidence that big falls in equity prices in themselves generally do much less damage than big falls in house prices. He found that the average output loss after real estate booms cumulates to over 5% of GDP over five years, and in 75% of cases at least 2% of output is lost. For equity price booms and busts, there is no output loss on average over five years, and following them only 25% of economies experience a loss of more than 4% (Posen 2009). What has happened to the hedge fund sector during this crisis is also illuminating. In Q4 2007, total assets held by hedge funds were around $ and aggregate equity capital (or what the industry refers to as assets under management, AUM) was around $ This implies that the hedge fund sector had an average leverage of around 2.8, compared to typical banking sector leverage ratios at that time of 30 or more.

The Bank of England now has extensive powers as a micro supervisor of individual firms and a macro supervisor of the financial system as a whole. Parliament has set objectives for both – primarily, safety and soundness for the PRA,  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  and the resilience of the system for the FPC. But unlike in monetary policy, we do not have a quantified target – and, to be clear, we do not think that that would be possible. To have such power with limited transparency would be uncomfortable. If nothing else, it would leave the Bank in a position where supervision was of interest only when it obviously goes wrong. We need to engage society – public, Parliament – in debates about the resilience of the financial system and how we are supervising it in the good times as well as in bad times. The FPC and PRA have already taken various steps to help with this – the six-monthly Financial Stability Review, the published Record of FPC policy meetings, the Committee’s statement on the use of its directive powers, the PRA’s Approach document and annual report, and so on. But stress testing can provide a quantum leap in transparency and accountability. For example, the FPC will need to be able to defend its choice of stress against questions and criticisms that the scenarios are too extreme or not tough enough. That will implicitly be a healthy debate about objectives.
As an explanation for the inflation we’ve experienced I think this fits the actual data better than the single fact of strong household money growth during the pandemic. It’s always possible, at least with the benefit of hindsight, to construct an alternative path for monetary policy over the past that would have kept inflation on target, even in the face of these subsequent shocks. But that’s not the same thing as saying that the actual policy was “inevitably” going to result in excessive inflation. Simulations suggest that, had that alternative (much tighter) policy path been followed, and then had Russia failed to invade Ukraine, inflation would now be materially below target. Anyhow, what follows is a walk – rather a long walk, I’m afraid – through these various points. Less ink is spilled on the second question, concerning QT: should the MPC not include in its forecasts some identifiable and separate effects of asset sales on activity and inflation? Having argued that the policy is transmitted to demand and inflation largely via asset prices my answer to this will be “no”. The Committee has said that the size of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF), the vehicle through which QE and QT are conducted) will be reduced gradually and predictably and, to that end, announced last September the exact planned reduction of the APF over the following twelve months. As such, it’s reasonable to suppose that the impact of QT, even in prospect, is already captured in the prices of assets on which we condition our forecasts.

The implication would be that central banks can control broad money more or less directly and as precisely as they do their own balance sheets. In practice, however, as we saw in the introduction, the two have behaved rather differently. I’ll discuss this more fully in a moment. Monetarist objections to IS-LM None of this is fatal for IS-LM. The model can be adapted and expanded to accommodate some of these complications. And, during the debates about inflation control in the 1960s and 1970s, most economists – of all persuasions – would have accepted that Chart 7 captured an important part of the transmission of policy (open-market operations, at least). But the “monetarists” raised a deeper objection – and it concerned precisely this assumption that an increase in the supply of money worked only by lowering the level of interest rates. They argued that it could also affect spending more directly. In essence, if one is at least to preserve the language of the model, their point was that a rise in the supply of money – broad money at least – should shift not just the “LM” curve to the right but the “IS” curve as well (Chart 8). Chart 8: Monetarists argued that money affected spending directly, not just via interest rates and asset prices  Imagine something like Friedman’s “helicopter drop” – a sudden, windfall addition to everyone’s bank account. On its own, if nothing else happened, this would push up household wealth (the “W” term in [1]).
Christian Noyer: Euro area’s situation – analysis, challenges and solutions Lunch-debate by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Montreal conference: “Demographic shifts – threats or opportunities?”, Montreal, 11 June 2012. *  *  *  Prime Minister, Governor, Mr Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure and honour to participate in this lunch-debate with you today. I would especially like to thank the International Economic Forum of the Americas and its Chairman for organising this Montreal Conference, which for the past 18 years has been a major international economic event. I would also like to take this opportunity to share my analysis of the euro area’s situation, the challenges we face and the solutions available to us. Before doing so, I think that it would be useful to say a few words about the international economic situation. At the global level, growth is expected to slow down slightly in 2012 compared with 2011, notably due to a moderation in growth in Europe and a little bit also in emerging countries, in particular China. The United States is recovering relatively rapidly, but faces a number of challenges, especially with regard to its fiscal situation and the housing market. Overall, – and this is one of the things that the crisis has clearly highlighted since 2008 – the world’s economic areas are closely interlinked and problems end up being shared.

Caleb M Fundanga: Achievements and accomplishments at the Bank of Zambia during the past forty years Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the 40th anniversary celebrations, Lusaka, 5-6 August 2004. *  *  *  Chairperson, Baroness Lynda Chalker of Wallasey The Guest of Honour, His Excellency, the President of the Republic of Zambia, Mr Levy Patrick Mwanawasa, State Counsel Honourable Ministers Honourable Deputy Ministers Your Excellencies Members of the Diplomatic Corps Honourable Members of Parliament present Special Guest, Governor Tito Mboweni, Governor Reserve Bank of South Africa Distinguished Past Governors of the Bank of Zambia Senior Government Officials Distinguished Invited Guests Ladies and Gentlemen On behalf of the Bank of Zambia and indeed on my own behalf, it is my singular honour and rare privilege to extend a warm welcome to you all as we commemorate the 40th Anniversary of the establishment of the Bank of Zambia. I would also like to thank, His Excellency, the President of the Republic of Zambia, for accepting our invitation to officiate at this special occasion. Further, special thanks go to Governor Mboweni for accepting to deliver a key note speech and all foreign participants for coming. Mr President may I mention that amidst this gathering are participants from sister central banks in the region that have come to celebrate this anniversary with us as well as Zambians based outside the Republic.
This means practicing what you preach, as General Colin Powell advised: “You can issue all the memos you want and give all the motivational speeches…but if the rest of the people in your organisation don’t see you putting forth your best effort every single day, they won’t either.”  6  Catalysing action means listening to and empowering colleagues, who are more likely to follow a new direction if they have been consulted during its development. And it then means getting out of the way. As Teddy Roosevelt said, “The best executive is the one who has sense enough to pick good people to do what [the leader] wants done, and self-restraint enough to keep from meddling with them while they do it.”  7  Such delegation has traditionally been an anathema for central banks. But when following the crisis the Bank of England doubled in size and tripled in responsibilities, we knew our rigid hierarchy had to change. To start that process, we surveyed widely and met with colleagues across the Bank in order to develop our new strategy. We then slashed the number of internal committees by two thirds and instituted a policy that the author of every analysis had to be in the room whenever it was discussed. We’re now devolving decisions to the right level, changing the way we meet and making the Bank more permeable to the outside world by multiplying our channels of communications and the number of our spokespeople.

Before they do so, a good leader assesses the context in which their organisation operates. That process starts with discussions with all stakeholders, including clients, senior managers and, via roundtables and surveys, colleagues at all levels. Understanding context requires developing intuitions about global developments and shifting technologies. This has always been second nature to central banking, but there are few organisations today that are not affected by the mega trends of shifting demographics, the accelerating pace of technological disruption and the search for a more inclusive capitalism. When setting priorities, time is of the essence because of both the rapid pace of global change and the arc of a leader’s personal capital within their organisation. As the global head of McKinsey Dominic Barton observes, “Great leaders set a clear agenda early on and then act on it fast. They never have as much power or impact as when they first take on the role.”  5  4  This is part of the Bank’s Vision 2020 Strategic Plan launched in 2017, which aims to overhaul ‘how we work’ and ‘how we communicate’. See: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/governance-and-funding 5 Barton, D (2017) p. 3 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  3  The third thing leaders do is to catalyse action. Specific catalysts vary with an organisation’s structure and culture, but in all cases they require the full and visible commitment of the leader before devolving power to colleagues.
I expect the unemployment rate to edge down to slightly below 3.5 percent next year, the lowest level in nearly 50 years. In keeping with this strong economic outlook, I expect price inflation to move up a bit above 2 percent. Importantly, I don’t see any signs of greater inflationary pressures on the horizon. This is all very good news, especially in the context of the slow recovery and low inflation that has persisted in the years since the financial crisis. In light of the progress we’ve made on our monetary policy goals, the FOMC has been in the process of gradually normalizing monetary policy for the past few years. Looking forward, I continue to expect that further gradual increases in interest rates will best foster a sustained economic expansion and achievement of our dual mandate goals. Since first raising rates from near-zero back in December 2015, the FOMC has continued to 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  raise the target range for the federal funds rate as the economy has improved and moved toward our maximum employment and 2 percent longer-run inflation objective. Our most recent rate increase came in late September, when the FOMC set the target range between 2 and 2.25 percent.2 Throughout, we’ve repeatedly stressed that we foresaw this to be a process of gradual normalization, reflecting the balancing of risks to reaching our goals.

Therefore, we devote considerable effort to monitoring and analysis of developments around the world to understand how our actions affect the global economy and indirectly feed back to our own economy. These considerations play an important role in my thinking about the economic outlook and the appropriate path for monetary policy, as well as how we best communicate our perspectives and plans. Moreover, we actively engage with international counterparts in a range of forums, such as today’s. These exchanges help us understand economic and financial conditions affecting our respective regions and provide opportunities to share perspectives and insights. A key lesson about policy-making in an interconnected world is that transparency and open lines of communication are critical to minimizing misunderstanding, market disruption, and volatility that can interfere with our common goals of having strong and stable economies. As I have mentioned a number of times already, effective communication that provides clarity and predictability to our policy actions is a critical component of successful policy-making. Conclusion Monetary policy-making has perhaps never been more challenging than it was following the financial crisis. But, as we move toward more “normal” conduct of monetary policy, we must not rest easy. We will confront our own fair share of future challenges. The most important monetary policy challenge in the United States today is sustaining the long economic expansion 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  without allowing risks to grow that ultimately undermine economic prosperity.
Øystein Olsen: Ensuring financial stability in turbulent times Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Finance Norway conference, Oslo, 12 April 2011. The text below may differ from the actual presentation. This speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or current interest rate setting. *  *  *  Introduction The experience of the past few years has clearly shown the cost of financial instability. The near seizure of the financial system in autumn 2008 gave rise to the most severe economic downturn of our time. There was a dramatic decline in international trade and in 2009 world GDP decreased for the first time in generations. Economic policy was used actively in most countries to curb the economic downturn. Substantial resources were deployed in the form of stimulus packages and measures to prevent financial market collapse. Nonetheless, unemployment in the OECD area rose by 15 million in the first year after the outbreak of the crisis. The downturn also led to a sharp fall in tax revenues. Budget deficits ballooned and government debt rose rapidly. Global economic growth has recovered, but the effects of the financial crisis are still evident and will continue to be for some time yet. Unemployment is still high and the current situation and prospects for several countries bear evidence of strained government finances.

Norges Bank has therefore devoted considerable resources to developing a suite of models for analysing this interaction. Somewhat simplified, the interplay can be illustrated by developments during the previous banking crisis in the early 1990s in Norway. Households had accumulated excessive debt at that time. They had to tighten spending in order to reduce debt. They increased their financial saving markedly and reduced spending on consumption and housing investment correspondingly. This resulted in a sharp fall in earnings among companies that provided goods and services to households. Banks sustained substantial losses on their loans to these companies. Bankruptcies and lower activity resulted in lower household income and further spillovers to the economy. Such interaction effects are important in explaining that financial crises tend to follow in the wake of imbalances in the property market. It is difficult to determine with certainty when asset prices exceed levels that are not sustainable over time. Nevertheless, a long period of debt-financed increases in house prices seems to be a potent signal of a build-up of risk in the financial system, a signal that should be taken seriously. If we can restrain the build-up of such imbalances, we also reduce the risk of financial instability. The question can be raised as to whether the interest rate should be used to a further extent in preventing the build-up of systemic risk. Higher interest rates can curb the rise in both debt  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  and house prices during an economic upturn.
Page 1/3  • In addition, the development of crypto-asset and DeFi comes with significant policy challenges for public authorities, that were highlighted in our discussions today: o First, they raise the question of how to regulate market players, which are not easily captured by existing regulation as they either lack central authority or may require close coordination between several regulatory and supervisory agencies due to the variety of their activities. o Second, the rise of these new assets has led central banks to reflect on the appropriate balance between public money and private assets and the way in which access to public money could be ensured in the digital era through the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currency. The second takeaway is that private players identify substantial benefits associated with distributed ledger technologies and consider that an appropriate regulatory framework would help make the most of these technologies. •  But we know from experience that public authorities need to act quickly, while this ecosystem is still nascent, to guide its development in a way that suits our public policy objectives. We are now at a tipping point. If we do fail to act, there is a risk that inefficient, fragmented, monopolistic solutions could develop in a silo mode, harming financial stability. But if we act early, we can foster the development of an innovative ecosystem, which will improve the efficiency of post-trading processes and infrastructures.

Fatos Ibrahimi: Business development opportunities in Albania Speech by Mr Fatos Ibrahimi, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Forum on Business Activity, with Governors and Managing Board of the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank, Tirana, 20 June 2011. *  *  *  Distinguished participants, It is a great pleasure for me to take the floor at this forum organized by the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank, which this time has on focus the promotion of development opportunities in Albania. Allow me say that the time of holding this forum coincides with the need to ensure the economy’s revival at home, after weathering the direct impacts of the global economic and financial crisis. The economy’s revival needs to become more sustainable, promoting the development of sectors that provide a competitive advantage by developing specific public policies and taking the public-private investment partnership to a new level. Allow me to dwell in more details on the contribution that the financial system and the banking sector can provide to support valuable business projects. The development and good financial position of the financial system in general and the banking sector in particular is a prerequisite for carrying out a successful financial intermediation activity. In fact, over the last decade, the banking sector has experienced a rapid development. Well-known European banking groups have entered the market, bringing about knowledge and best technologies, as well as enhancing competition in the interbank market.