samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Finally, as we talked about earlier, the economic and operational environment we are in is somewhat unusual, and we will consider whether this has any implications for the implementation timelines of any final policy. Conclusion 4/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  A rather ingenious member of my team at the PRA came up with the title of “mutual interests” for this speech. At first I took an instinctive dislike to this title, clever though it is, because I worried it had a hint of collaboration, cosiness, or regulatory capture – all of which I consider to be pure poison for the regulator. But having thought about it further I have concluded that it is actually a pretty good summary of what I’ve been talking about today. With regards to mutuals, parliament has of course always given us specific instructions to consider the impact of our decisions on the sector.6 But more broadly, as we now move into our future phase of rulemaking outside the EU, there will be even more opportunities for us to engage with all of our stakeholders, including industry and Parliament. Across strong and simple, the leverage and MREL reviews, and mortgage risk-weights we all have a very strong mutual interest in getting it right. I would like to thank Thomas Papavranoussis and other colleagues for their help in preparing this speech.

On the one extreme, the PRC and FPC might now decide that the current scope of the framework has served us well, and that it is enough for PRC to continue with its leverage ratio supervisory expectations that currently apply to all firms. On the other extreme, the PRC and FPC might decide that there is benefit in extending the leverage ratio framework to all PRA firms, whether from a micro-prudential or a system-wide perspective. Similarly, the Bank’s MREL review is considering the thresholds for being subject to a resolution strategy requiring use of the Bank’s stabilisation powers, and in connection to that the resulting MREL calibration for mid-tier firms. These links and their implications for the different reviews are being closely coordinated across the three authorities – the PRC, the FPC and the Resolution Authority. No decisions have been made on either, but I expect all three authorities to be saying more on these reviews over the summer – so watch this space. Mortgage risk-weights Finally, I want to close with something that I hope is of interest to both the larger and smaller firms in our audience. Last time I was here, I spoke about the significant decline in UK mortgage risk-weights for firms using internal models – from an average of around 15% in 2009 to around 10% today. This has led to increased prudential risks, and an increasing divergence between firms that use these models and firms that do not.
While markets are currently rewarding those countries which liquefy public debt, they seem to be aware of some inflation “tail risks” and hedge themselves through gold and the CHF – whose prices have reached historical highs. At this stage, therefore, the euro area is paying a double price. One for its mistakes and one for its virtues. The mistake, for governments, was to allow the piling up of debt through unsustainable fiscal policies over a decade, and then to create ex nihilo a doubt as to their ability to pay those debts. And we are also paying the price for our virtue and our refusal to liquefy our debt through massive monetization of our fiscal deficits. Will our virtue be rewarded at the end? I believe so and, to explain why, I need to take a longer-term perspective. In the next decade, the world will be divided into two: on the one hand, advanced economies, with high absorption capacity, low savings and high debt with ratios between 85% and 100%; and, on the other, emerging economies, with high savings, low debt (around 30% GDP on average) and less absorption capacity. Our common prosperity will therefore depend on our ability to create stable channels and mechanisms of financial intermediation between those two parts of the world. That, in turn, will crucially depend on the existence of assets that can be considered safe stores of value.

In these turbulent times, Europe has a special role and a special responsibility. We are at the epicenter of the crisis and very much aware of the necessity to take and implement the appropriate decisions. Like in 2009, however, the crisis itself is more global in nature. A new uncertainty has been created and the interaction between markets and governments has become more complex and more dangerous. We live in democracies and have to accept that political decisions follow their own process and obey their own constraints. In all our countries, rising public debt and the unstable state of public finances is creating enormous anxiety, which, in turn, makes it more difficult to reach the necessary decisions. There are, however, good reasons for optimism. On the supply side, our economies are robust and dynamic. Corporate balance sheets are very strong. Emerging economies are well placed to enjoy strong and sustainable growth in the years to come. Above all, the community of nations seems ready to face the extraordinary challenges we are confronted with. Coming back from the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, I am struck by the spirit of cohesion and the willingness to cooperate that has been displayed by all participants. As you well know, central banks themselves are constantly cooperating in monitoring the situation and acting when necessary, as they have done recently to provide dollar funding to international banks. This spirit of cohesion is our best asset in the current environment.
Information on New Turkish Lira deposit buying auctions will be announced on Reuters’ “CBTY” page; while information on reverse repo auctions will be announced on “CBTF” page at 10:00 a.m. on the same day. The Central Bank’s current monetary policy instruments and the general framework of liquidity management are capable of effectively providing the liquidity that may be needed by any bank or the banking system as a whole as long as they have adequate collaterals, maintaining price stability in the money markets and ensuring that the payment system functions without interruptions even in extraordinary conditions. However, as per the subparagraph (c) of the paragraph (I) of Article 40 of the CBT Law, the Central Bank, as the lender of last resort, possesses one more lending instrument for emergencies. The mentioned article enables the Central Bank to extend credits to the banks that are the subject of uncertainty and lack of confidence in the event of acceleration of fund withdrawals and uncertainty and lack of confidence in the banking system. Taking into consideration the structure of the banking system and the effectiveness of the available instruments, the Central Bank does not predict that the use of the mentioned instrument will be needed; but in order to remain cautious of any possible unfavorable conditions and to clearly inform the public of all available facilities, the Central Bank will announce the credit utilization procedures as soon as possible.

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The pilot successfully reduced the settlement duration of primary issuance from 5 days to 2 days. These are just some examples of the tremendous scope for innovation in Asian financial markets. 15. Job functions will need to adapt, and our workforce will need to be equipped with the right capabilities and skills to capture the opportunities. In 2019, MAS and the Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF) commissioned a detailed study [12] on the impact of automation and data analytics over the next 3-5 years on job tasks and skills needs in the financial sector. The study estimates that half of the job roles in the financial sector in Singapore would be augmented as individuals leverage on data analytics and automation to amplify their performance. Another one third would be https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  5/11  12/02/2021  "Riding the Growth Momentum in Asia" – Keynote Speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director (Markets & Development), …  transformed, as these technologies have the potential to substitute a significant proportion of job tasks.

Speeches Published Date: 08 December 2020  "FinTech for an Inclusive Society and a Sustainable Planet" - Remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore, at Singapore FinTech Festival 2020 on 8 December 2020 In his keynote speech at SFF x SWITCH 2020, Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director, MAS, spoke on leveraging FinTech to create a more inclusive society and a more sustainable planet. VIEW ALL NEWS  © 2021, Government of Singapore. https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2021/riding-the-growth-momentum-in-asia  11/11
But that is not the end of the matter, as investors need to do something with the proceeds from their asset sales. They could just sit on the proceeds, but it is more likely that in due course they will buy other assets, including those that offer a higher return. So, in the course of time, the whole range of equity and bond prices are driven up, lowering the cost of finance to companies and increasing its availability. Our purchases of corporate assets are intended to have the additional effect of improving the functioning of those markets. By standing ready to buy commercial paper and corporate bonds, we hope to improve their liquidity, lowering the spread above safe assets of equivalent maturity, and with it the cost of finance to business. 2  BIS Review 62/2009  There are signs that these measures are having a beneficial impact too. Spreads on commercial paper eligible for purchase have fallen by around ½ percentage point and the size of the market has increased by around 10%. Similarly, average spreads on sterling investment grade corporate bonds for industrial companies have declined by some 60 basis points and gross issuance of bonds by UK companies has been strong. These developments may reflect a range of influences, but feedback from market participants suggests that our purchases have indeed played a helpful role. In addition to these channels, the banks, finding themselves flush with extra reserves, may choose to lend them on, providing a further kick by boosting the supply of credit.

The inflation rate as measured by the more familiar Retail Prices Index has fallen even more sharply, reflecting the reduction in mortgage interest payments associated with the reduction in Bank Rate and falling house prices. When the recovery does come, as it surely will, the margin of spare capacity in the economy will begin to shrink and inflationary pressures will start to build again. So at some stage, we will have to begin withdrawing the large monetary stimulus. Although this may be some way in the future, some market participants and commentators are already starting to worry about whether we will be willing and able to accomplish this sufficiently rapidly to prevent inflation taking off, particularly given the scale of the Government’s prospective financing needs. Three points are worth making. First, the timing of the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus will be governed by the need to meet the MPC’s inflation objective, not by the Government’s financing needs. Second, with Bank Rate at its effective floor, we presently have only the asset purchase programme as a tool to stimulate demand. But when it comes to tightening policy, we have two instruments at our disposal: asset sales; and raising Bank Rate. It is not necessary to unwind the asset purchases before raising Bank Rate. Third, if we felt the need to drain the extra reserves from the system rapidly, we could also do it by exchanging the reserves for short-term Bank of England bills, allowing us to stagger the sales of the gilts.
Moreover, decisions based on an arbitrary value of money cannot be sound, which is why stable and low inflation is a precondition for solid growth in the economy. The profitability of an investment project can only be calculated correctly when inflation is in line with expectations. Accounts tend to be misleading and equity prices uncertain if the purchasing power of money is not stable. The tax system, with its rates and thresholds in krone terms, impairs the distribution of resources to a greater extent when inflation is high and variable. The value of money and inflation have now been stable for almost 20 years. In earlier times, the value of money was more variable, and periods of high inflation tended to be followed by a fall in prices. The value of money fell sharply and permanently around the time of the two World Wars and earlier wars. In the 1970s and 1980s, the value of money also fell rapidly, but as a result of economic policy. The interest rate was kept at a low level and public spending was high in an attempt to achieve very low unemployment. 12  BIS Review 15/2010  Not only in Norway, but worldwide, there was a crisis in the monetary system in the 1970s. After the Second World War, the US dollar was pegged to gold while other countries held a fixed but adjustable exchange rate against the dollar.

The management of the Global financial crisis and its aftermath in the advanced economies have highlighted the importance of this aspect of leadership. How then do we unleash and harness the leadership energy to perform and be effective in this new and more challenging environment. It lies in self-hacking the mind and the heart. We can draw inspiration from the brain-training secrets of the Olympic athletes which start with oneself and the ability to tap into our internal reservoir of strength. Just like athletes, one can tap into this impressive mental prowess to train the mind to remain focussed eliminate distractions, reduce stress and anxiety and build the stamina needed to achieve optimal performance. In the business of Central Banking – a business that I have described as being “an unfinished business” because there are always new challenges on the horizon, endless demands emerging in an ever changing and more complex environment and great  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  expectations that the Central Bank will provide the solutions and the necessary actions to resolve the monetary, financial and economic problems that continue to confront our world. In conditions of financial and economic crisis, a phenomenon that has now become more frequent, in which Central Banks are at the forefront in its management. The drive to deliver in the face of great odds from my experience has been about having great focus on the results and goals to be achieved and a strong conviction of how this might be pursued.
Governor Jayawardena, there are many aspects of our new regime that I have not touched upon - including questions relating to our capital, our revenues, expenditure and allocation of profits and how they are reported and accounted for - which can also affect the degree of independence we enjoy. Perhaps we might explore these together with the other issues in our discussion. But I hope I have said enough to draw a few conclusions. My starting point had been that central bank independence in the extreme sense of exemption from democratic control is unrealistic and inappropriate. Yet wise governments in many countries around the world have recognised that they can gain advantage - in terms of public and market credibility from detached and unbiased advice in its field of competence from the central bank. The value that they put on the central bank’s role depends very much on the quality of that advice - the central bank’s objectivity and its technical expertise and professional competence. That is largely down to us. But the benefit a government derives from it depends too upon the advice being seen to be detached and unbiased, as well as technically expert and professionally competent. And that depends also upon the government.

In fact I think we probably tend to err on the side of drawing too much, rather than too little, attention to differences of opinion within the Committee which are often largely a question of nuance. But it is better in my view to err on that side rather than to attempt to submerge the differences. We do not, however, attribute particular views to particular individuals. To do so would invite prepared statements and militate against the inter-active debate which is an outstanding and immensely valuable characteristic of our meetings. It would suppress the kind of “what if” discussion in which the same individual may explore alternative views. No attempt is made to concert the outcome of the policy decision; in fact I go out of my way to discourage any kind of collusion, whether between the internal or external members of the Committee - we are, and must remain, nine independent members, individually accountable for our decisions as to how we vote. This, of course, means that the Committee is divided as often as not; but although this initially led to public comment to the effect that the Committee did not know what it was doing and could not make up its mind, it is now generally accepted as the natural order of things and helps to underline to the public at large that monetary policy making cannot be a precise science - however much it needs to be informed by all the science available to us.
Second, the Fed, as the financial system’s lender of last resort, should play an important role in the consolidated supervision of those institutions that have access to central bank liquidity and play a critical role in market functioning. Our ability to directly oversee the risk profile of these institutions is essential to our capacity to make the judgments necessary for using our lender of last resort tools, including critical judgments about liquidity and solvency for individual institutions and for the system as a whole. Those judgments require the knowledge that can only come from a direct, established role in supervision. And replacing our ongoing role as consolidated supervisor with stand-by, contingent authority to intervene would risk exacerbating moral hazard and adding to uncertainty about the rules of the game. Third, the Federal Reserve should be granted explicit responsibility and clear authority over systemically important payment and settlement systems, and the ability to continue to encourage broader improvements in the over-the-counter derivatives markets. Fourth, the Federal Reserve Board should have an important consultative role in judgments about official intervention where there is potential for systemic risk, as is currently the case for bank resolutions under FDICIA. And, finally, the responsibilities for market and financial stability that are accorded the Fed in current and any future legislation will require that the Fed adopt a more comprehensive  4  BIS Review 95/2008  approach to financial supervision and market oversight.

Sustained employment gains, which are also benefiting from past structural reforms, and still relatively low oil prices provide additional support for households’ real disposable income and thus for private consumption. In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is expected to be mildly expansionary in 2016 and to turn broadly neutral in 2017 and 2018. At the same time, headwinds to the economic recovery in the euro area include the outcome of the UK referendum and other geopolitical uncertainties, subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and a  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms. Against this background, the risks to the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. According to Eurostat, euro area annual HICP inflation in June 2016 was 0.1%, up from 0.1% in May, mainly reflecting higher energy and services price inflation. Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates are likely to remain very low in the next few months before starting to pick up later in 2016, in large part owing to base effects in the annual rate of change of energy prices. Supported by our monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should increase further in 2017 and 2018. Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) continued to increase at a robust pace in May 2016, with its annual rate of growth standing at 4.9%, after 4.6% in April.
At the moment, although the European and US government bond markets are of comparable size, the non-government bond market in Europe is ‘only’ a third to half the size of that in the US; and much of that is bank issued debt. I would expect the euro corporate bond market to develop significantly in the medium term. And with it, I would expect to see other product markets develop, as they have elsewhere (in the UK, but especially in the US) – for instance markets for asset backed securities and commercial paper. As part of this I think we will see a trend to greater issuance at the lower credit end of the market (or ‘high yield’, as it is politely named). In the euro area around 70% or corporate bond issuance is by issuers  3  BIS Review 43/1999  rated Aa2 and above. In the US, it is around 30%. I would expect that gap to close a bit, and I think there are already signs of life in the European high yield market. While I am on the subject of European bond markets, I would like to make just a few remarks about the proposed EU withholding tax. The stated objectives of the scheme – reducing tax evasion and reducing structural unemployment – are clearly desirable ones. But in thinking about any kind of withholding tax a judgement has to be made about the trade off between the efficiency of tax collection and the efficiency of capital markets.

Real GDP growth has decelerated in 2018 compared with the growth we have seen since the second half of 2014. This slowdown mainly reflects weakness in net trade. Looking forward, global protectionism and weakening conditions in emerging markets represent further downside risks to growth. Internally, the present low savings rate of Spanish households and the need to restore savings in the near term, points to moderation in consumption going forward. Let me point to the three main challenges that the Spanish economy is facing at present, in my view. The first relates to the process of fiscal consolidation. While well advanced, it is still incomplete. The government deficit ratio is still the highest in the EU and it needs to be further reduced to bring the government debt ratio on to a downward path. In fact, adequate buffers need to be rebuilt now, in times of solid growth and favourable financing conditions. This would enable fiscal policy to support the economy in the event of any future shock. Secondly, unemployment remains very high, as does the share of temporary employment. Spain’s unemployment rate remains well above pre-crisis levels and is roughly the double of the euro area rate. This situation calls for further reforms to address the duality of the labour market and more effective active labour market policies to re-integrate young people and the long-term unemployed. Finally, productivity remains low and needs to be raised to maintain economic growth and enable sustainable wage growth.