samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
A crisis of the depth we have now passed through leaves behind feelings of uncertainty regarding the future. Previously-observed relationships have not been able to provide us with the same guidance as before, and moreover it is difficult to know what these deviations from historical patterns will lead to further ahead. The way this situation develops in the future will depend on many different things. If the world economy returns after the recovery to a situation similar to that before the crisis, then countries which have conducted a policy that has helped companies to retain their labour force through the recession will be in a very good position. Companies in these countries will then easily be able to increase production. However, if it turns out that the world demand is for other goods and services than those prior to the crisis, these countries may instead find themselves in a situation where they need to undergo a necessary structural transformation. This could lead to a more protracted period of high unemployment and lower production. In the future, countries like China may account for an increasingly large share of world consumption. If consumption patterns differ in different countries, this could mean that different types of product will be in demand in the future. A deep recession may also affect the internal demand picture within a country permanently, for instance, by individuals changing to more energy-saving and cheaper alternatives.

Firstly, it should be said that it is not possible to point to any individual variable that will alone be a determining factor in an interest rate decision. Prior to each interest rate decision we weigh together all of the new information received since the previous decision. But employment is of course an important element; when, for example, we said in February that economic activity was now on firmer ground one of the things we were referring to was the stronger labour market. It was a contributing factor to the marginal adjustment in the repo rate path we made then; with a first repo rate increase coming slightly sooner than implied in the repo rate path from December. Our most recent repo rate decision entails both the repo rate and the repo rate path being held unchanged. A weaker GDP outcome for the fourth quarter could on its own have been a negative signal and made us more doubtful about the timing of the coming interest rate increase. But we also had surprisingly positive information on the labour market, which provided support for the assumption that the economy is moving in the right direction. Our forecasts are based on employment only increasing at a slow rate in the future and on resource utilisation being lower than normal for the greater part of the forecast period. But the situation is that the crisis has hit the export industry particularly hard, while the services sector has escaped relatively lightly.
Christian Noyer: Is inflation set for a comeback? Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, at Deutsche Bank, Paris, 19 March 2008. *  *  *  With inflation surging everywhere, it is quite natural to wonder if we could have reached the end of this worldwide era of “great moderation” in both output and price volatility which has characterized Alan Greenspan’s tenure of office. True, one could argue that we are just experiencing one-off shocks in commodity and food prices whose inflationary consequences will wane rapidly thanks to the increased flexibility of our economies. But other possible scenarios are more worrying. Second-round effects could, after years of relatively well contained wages, be triggered by shifts in inflation expectations; through the catching-up of developing economy, the globalisation process could have become inflationary; the ageing of our developed European economy, the necessary fight against global warming could structurally add inflationary pressures,.... and the room for monetary policy decisions could be restricted by the state of the financial and banking system and by the risks of slowdown of growth. I would like to review these issues. In order to avoid any misunderstanding let me immediately make my point. Even if it is clear that inflationary pressures have both increased and changed in their nature, I firmly believe that monetary policy can still ensure price stability, over the medium term.

For those of you who have not been home for a while, cleanskin wine is quality wine that is sold more cheaply because it is unlabeled. So, you are getting something good but you don’t know why because you don’t know what it is. Half an hour ago, the Thai economy this year to many of you was like cleanskin wine. You know the economy is doing better but you don’t know why. BIS Review 50/2004  3  In this brief space of time, I hope I have given you an adequate account of how we at the Bank of Thailand see the Thai economy evolving this year, and hopefully have helped improve your understandings of the economy. As with the cleanskin wine, I will definitely go back for more. I only hope you will do the same by continuing to have confidence in the Thai economy and remain a trusted friend and a dependable partner of Thailand for many many years to come. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 50/2004
This will involve curriculum design towards the attainment of professional qualifications and the provision of high quality learning solutions that fulfils the AICB’s CPD requirement for its members. A key focus area for ABS in the near to medium term is in acquiring the necessary capabilities and resources to enable it to carry out its objectives effectively. Central to this would be in developing strong in-house faculty and resources which may include visiting professors and industry subject matter experts. ABS is also expected to anticipate and spearhead cutting edge programs tailored to the evolving needs of the banking industry. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  We have high hopes that in the next 5 years, ABS will distinguish itself in the quality of its programs, developing a particular strength in delivering integrative and practice-oriented education and learning in banking and business that combine intellectual know-how with practical applications. In an increasingly interconnected world, our workforce must be empowered with the right knowledge, the tools, the skills and the mind-set to deliver worldclass performance. The value proposition of ABS in adopting contemporary approach to business and banking education that equip students for the real world will be demanded as any expertise in a particular discipline. Ultimately, the aim is to integrate the multidisciplinary nature of the banking industry with modern management and professionalism, in turn developing talents with abilities to combine traditional disciplines as they tackle the challenges of uncertainty and complexity. A monumental task is upon ABS. Its challenging and exciting.

The transformation of Institut Bank-Bank Malaysia (IBBM) – the industry’s former training outfit, into AICB – the new professional body for the banking sector, in 2013 was an important step in this direction. The AICB champions the vision of professionalising bankers and advocates for high standards of professionalism via the introduction of its new membership framework, subjecting its members to a strict code of conduct, professionalism and ethics. Every effort now needs to be made to build on, and elevate further, the quality and value of AICB’s award of the Chartered Banker qualification so that it can be truly regarded as a gold standard for the banking professionals. In this regard, the banking industry ought to give appropriate recognition to individuals and staff who attain this prestigious qualification. Of equal importance is the demand for higher and specialist skills for high value added jobs, there are also merits in introducing more specialised qualification and certification according to functional areas or business lines, beyond the current certification offerings for treasury traders and credit officers. The suite of qualifications and certifications would then allow the banking profession to raise the bar of competence higher across sector. In taking on its mandate as the training and educational institution for the industry, we envisage the ABS to play a central role in supporting AICB as its premium learning partner in the move toward professionalising the banking sector.
We must, moreover, act with the urgency demanded by our responsibilities as active members of the common European project in defence of stability and the success of this project. The report I present today is specifically geared to contribute to this task. From spring last year, the economic indicators offered signs that the world economy was emerging from the most critical phase of the gravest real and financial crisis since the Great Depression. Progress since along the path to recovery has been much more evident in the emerging economies, for which the latest projections indicate growth rates above 6% for 2010. By contrast, the developed countries’ economies are recovering at a considerably less dynamic rate, of around 2%. This turnaround confirms that the rapid and energetic economic policy action to support financial systems, to stimulate demand and to sustain confidence was pivotal in halting a spiral of recession and financial instability which, had it continued, would have undoubtedly had disastrous consequences for the world economy. Halting this recessionary spiral was crucial for placing the world economy once again on a path of sustained output and employment growth. But if the incipient recovery – still subject to considerable uncertainty and risks – is to take root, further measures on various fronts will be needed. The bulk of the measures adopted to check the accelerated economic and financial downturn were exceptional. Accordingly, they have to be withdrawn.

This meant that private sector solutions were prioritised, as has been seen in the processes that have unfolded in the past few months. Today, it is fair to say that the restructuring and recapitalisation of Spain’s financial institutions is well under way. It is now just a case of formalising and implementing the agreements reached. As a result, Spain’s deposit institutions that did not already have sufficient capital have now secured it, either from the markets or from the FROB. The Banco  8  BIS Review 86/2010  de España has conducted stress tests to verify that all institutions – banks, savings banks and credit co-operatives – will actually have sufficient capital available, not only for what would currently seem to be the most reasonable scenarios, but also for complex growth scenarios in the near future. Accordingly, before end-June, the Banco de España will take the steps necessary to formalise the processes already agreed and to ensure they are correctly implemented. If, by month-end, any of these processes has failed, or any institution has been left behind, the Bank will act, using the mechanisms envisaged for this purpose in the FROB legislation. Moreover, the Bank intends to publish the results of these stress tests, to reveal the deterioration estimated, the consequent capital requirements and the capital funding committed, to provide the markets with a perfectly clear idea of the situation of the Spanish banking system.
They usually refer to the financial crisis and developments in other countries as a warning example of how badly things can go if one allows debt to build up and housing prices to rise. They then express concern for Swedish household sector debt and say – without mentioning the research that has shown that monetary policy has very little effect on housing prices and debt – that a higher repo rate is necessary to prevent developments similar to those in the countries that were hit hardest in the financial crisis. Sometimes one adds an argument that basically states that even if we cannot see any immediate threats in Sweden at present, this does not mean that they do not exist. In many of the countries where things have gone very badly, people did not see the risks, they say, so not seeing a risk doesn’t mean there isn’t one – a variation of the argument that “this time is (not) different”.12 Let me emphasise that I certainly do not mean that risks linked to high indebtedness should be ignored. In the light of events in recent years I find it difficult to imagine that anyone would fail to agree that governments, legislators and financial supervisory authorities should do everything in their power to prevent and limit the consequences of future crises. But I nevertheless feel that the argument that household debt entails major risks and needs to be addressed must be substantiated in a sufficiently convincing manner.

Further, the Government is actively engaging new investors to take over the running of the closed mining operations as well as negotiating with the owners of the bigger mines on modalities of continuing with operations at the mines to forestall further job losses. The 2009 Budget has prioritised infrastructure development with the view to opening investment opportunities for diversification, particularly in agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing sectors. Some specific measures include the following: Agricultural sector: Increased allocation of funds to the sector for livestock development and creation of at least one disease-free livestock zone, Farm Block infrastructural development and irrigation projects. Further, the value added tax on selected agricultural equipment and spares, has been zero rated as incentive to increase agricultural production and productivity. Tourism sector: In order to diversify the economy and attain broad based economic growth, Government has increased the allocation to the sector to improve access to the Northern Tourism Circuit (infrastructural development in Mbala and Kasaba Bay). Further, Government will embark on the development of a new world class tourism area in Livingstone, and step-up the development of road infrastructure in key national parks namely, Luangwa and Kafue. Manufacturing: In order to expand the manufacturing base, Government is promoting the establishment of Multi-Facility Economic Zones (MFEZ) on the Copperbelt (Chambishi), and Lusaka (Lusaka south and east) provinces by providing for fiscal incentives and quality infrastructure development in the budget. The construction of the Chambishi MFEZ has already commenced.
10  BIS Review 36/2005  Table 2: The persistence of inflation 1950-2005 Persistence 1950-59  0.5  1960-69  0.3  1970-79  0.7  1980-92  0.8  1993-2005  0.2  Source: ONS and Bank of England calculations. Note: Persistence in this table is the sum of the coefficients on lagged inflation in a regression of quarterly inflation on a constant and 4 lags. The measure of inflation is RPI before 1976 and RPIX from 1976, seasonally adjusted. Chart 4: Catching a cricket ball  ball A  F  BIS Review 36/2005  11  Chart 5: The variability of expected future interest rates, US and UK Basis points 20  15 US  10  5 UK 0 1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  Source: Bank of England calculations. Note: variability is calculated as the standard deviation of daily changes in the ten year instantaneous nominal forward rate over a yearly window. 12  BIS Review 36/2005  Chart 6: The variability of inflation and output, 1955-2004 standard de viation of inflation, pe r cent  8 A  7 1970-1979  6 5 1980-1992  4 3 1955-1959  2 A  1960-1969  1  1993-2004  0 0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  standard de viation of GDP growth, pe r cent  Source: ONS and Bank of England calculations.

Over twenty-five years we have moved from monetary targets to an inflation target and from a medium term financial strategy to rules for fiscal policy over the cycle. Yet the essential objective of maintaining monetary and fiscal discipline remains the same. All major political parties in the UK now agree that stability is the key to economic success. We do not know whether the Great Stability will continue, as it has for more than a decade now. In part, it will depend upon whether our framework of inflation targeting can respond to the economic shocks that will undoubtedly be visited upon us in the years ahead. And that is the subject of my lecture. In only fifteen years inflation targeting has taken the central banking world by storm. Table 1 shows that there are now 22 countries in which monetary policy is based on an inflation targeting regime. So tonight I want to discuss what inflation targeting really means, why it has been successful in Britain and elsewhere, and what challenges it faces in the years ahead. The lecture tries to answer three questions. First, what can monetary policy do and how has our understanding of that changed over time? Second, what are the challenges for central banks that result from incomplete knowledge of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? Third, is inflation targeting the answer to those challenges? I believe that it is. Inflation targeting, I shall argue,  1 2  This proposition is documented in detail by Batini and Nelson (2005).
We should thus rekindle trust in our economic and fiscal framework, by making it more effective in ensuring sound policy making at national level. These actions can also be further supported at the European level by the recent decisions to launch an instrument for convergence and competitiveness for the euro area. To tackle future cyclical crises, the two layers of protection against shocks – the diversification of risk through the private financial system on the one hand, and public countercyclical support through fiscal instruments at the national and European levels on the other – need to interact in a complete and efficient manner. Achieving these reforms is not idealistic, nor utopian if we work together. And at the Euro Summit in December, leaders renewed their political commitment to strengthen EMU. If we want to realise in full the benefits of the euro, we need to capitalise on this commitment and translate it into concrete policy actions. Conclusion Mr Chairman, Honourable members of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  I have used the word “together” several times today. As this is the last time that we will be together in this legislative term, let me add a few words to you personally. I would like to thank you all for the role that this Committee has played over the past years. In my first hearing here, I remember saying that was my first exercise in democratic accountability with the European Parliament and how grateful I was for it.

Many more would follow and you effectively ensured that the ECB would be accountable and therefore could legitimately be independent in carrying out its monetary policy. But I am also grateful for the support that this Committee always expressed for the actions of the ECB, a sincere support because it built on the voice of European citizens and an important support that helped the ECB through the many difficult times of the past years. As co-legislators your role was also essential in delivering reforms that further strengthened our Union. This Committee, and the European Parliament more generally, has been in my experience an attentive interpreter of the demands of European citizens. It is only by doing so that the trust in the legitimacy of the EU’s institutions and policies is built, making it possible to achieve a more effective and inclusive Union. As I have argued elsewhere, citizens demand, and Parliament may help in achieving, a “more perfect Union”. A Union that will continue providing its citizens with physical and economic security, while also promoting the values of an open, democratic and peaceful society. Thank you for your attention. I am now at your disposal for questions. 1 See Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, at the plenary debate of the European  Parliament on the ECB’s Annual Report 2017, Strasbourg, 15 January 2019.
William C Dudley: Making globalization work Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Central Bank of Brazil, São Paulo, 1 March 2018. * * * Thank you, Ilan, and thanks to the Central Bank of Brazil for organizing this event. It is a pleasure to have the opportunity today to talk about the issue of globalization. As always, what I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Federal Reserve System.1 Although the debate about the benefits and challenges of globalization is not new, it has recently come into sharper focus. This debate is important to all of us, and I think it is particularly relevant to Brazil given its importance in the global economy. Globalization means different things to different people. In my remarks today, I will focus on the role of globalization as a force for international economic integration and economic development. I will highlight three themes: First, the important role that trade plays in promoting higher standards of living globally. Second, how changes in trade can create challenges for industries and their workers when they lose competitiveness. Insufficient attention has been given to this issue. We must do better in addressing the very large costs that can be imposed on particular communities and households. Third, the answer to those challenges is not greater protectionism.

Withdrawals from the fund at 4 per cent can therefore finance 15 per cent of public spending in 10 years’ time. This can continue on a permanent basis without reducing the capital in the fund. The fund will therefore lead to smaller cuts in government welfare spending than would have been the case without the fund as the costs related to the ageing of the population have an impact on government budgets. The actual building up of the fund may span a short generation. A fund with investment abroad enables Norway to separate the revenues generated by oil and gas production from petroleum revenue spending. An alternative could have been to regulate the production rate, keeping our wealth under the sea bed for a longer period, as was attempted in the 1970s when the production ceiling was set at 90 million standard cubic metres per year. Oil companies currently produce 240 million standard cubic metres per year. The fund acts as a buffer between widely fluctuating oil revenues and domestic expenditure. The annual spending decision can be made independently of the size of the revenues. Thus, the fluctuations in government oil revenues do not have an automatic impact on the Norwegian economy. The fund also has a stabilising effect on the krone exchange rate as capital outflows increase when Norway’s petroleum revenues rise. As a savings plan, the fund enables petroleum revenues to be used by not only the current generation but also future generations. The fiscal rule ensures that this is the case.