samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But to set the context on what I am going to say, given that financial markets cannot be discussed separately from the real economies, I want to begin with a few observations on the current macro and finance trends in the region. In the context of key macro and finance trends in the region, I think at least four developments stand out as the current defining themes. First is the region’s much improved economic resilience and fundamentals. These qualities now offer the region a prospect of continued strong long-term growth and potentials. At the same time, the region’s financial prowess – in terms of high saving rates, current account surpluses, and strong international reserves – has continued to improve, and thereby enhances the region’s financial influence in the global economy. Next is the increased interdependency. With the growth in economic activities, we are also seeing more economic interdependency within the region, especially in trade, and especially in trade between China and the rest of the region. Intra-regional trade is now the largest component of total trade for most East Asian economies. And its momentum has been an important driver of the region’s trade and economic growth. And third is the growth of finance, flows, and market transactions, propelled by the increase in trade and investment between the region and the rest of the world and also by trade within the region.

I also have a number of specific remarks and views to make on the aspects of East Asian financial markets to be discussed in the next sessions. But for the benefit of time, I think I should leave them for later opportunity. For now, let me close by saying a little bit about the role of policy. Government policies, in my view, have played an important role in the current development of East Asian financial markets. The key policy, of course, has been the implementation of financial sector reform which has resulted in a much improved financial system, especially the banking sector. Policies have been directed at developing the region’s capital markets too, especially the bond market. Policy coordination has also been strengthened to increase regional financial integration and to develop a policy coordination framework that can help the region deal better with the likelihood of a crisis. I am referring here to the CMI or the Chiang Mai Initiative and its surveillance process. But while policies have been important, the process of financial market development in East Asia has essentially been left to the market, in the sense that the process is basically a market-driven one. But on account of what is perceived to be a slow progress, question arises whether policy should do more. My view is that the process should continue to be market-driven and not policy-driven. But there are areas that government policies can do more, especially on issues that involve efforts on a region-wide basis.
Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Transbank. 11  18  19  20  21  22  23  Figure 7  Unemployment and labor participation  Employment by occupational category  (percent)  (index, 2019-2023=100, deseasonalized series)  14  Unemployment rate  70  120  12  Labor participation rate (right axis) 65  110  10  60  Salaried  Other (*)  100 90 8  55  6  80  50 20  19  21  22  70  23  19  20  21  22  23  (*) Categories include employers, self employed, household help and unpaid family work. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute. Figure 8  Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)  (index, 2013.I=100, real deseasonalized series)  120  GFCF  Construction & works  Machinery & equipment  110 100 90 80 70 13  14  15  16  17  18  Source: Central Bank of Chile. 12  19  20  21  22  23  Figure 9 IMCE (1)  EPN: Planned investments for the year (2)  (diffusion index)  100  75  (percent of firms responding "Yes")  Commerce  Construction  Manufacturing  IMCE w/o mining  60  40 50 20  25  0 18  19  20  21  22  0  23  Abr.21  Abr.22  Abr.23  (1) Monthly Business Confidence Index.

But this step-up should not ignite an acceleration in cost and price pressures, given the remaining slack in key factor and product markets. 10. Third, there are important upside risks to this baseline assessment of inflation. We have seen within this region, a recent increase in the upstream producer prices in China, which points to temporary frictional costs as well as some eﬀect from commodity prices, but also the possibilities of the early emergence of underlying cost-push pressures. Demand-pull price increases could pick up and rise to the fore in the latter part of the year if the growth recovery continues apace, and it could interact with the concurrent firming in short-run supply-side costs. Indeed, these risks take on a particular relevance at the current conjuncture, because the near-term trajectory for inflation represents one of the key uncertainties for financial markets. Markets may be particularly vulnerable to signs of accelerating inflation in the data, which could trigger some volatility in asset prices. 11. Fourth, the interaction of the cyclical dynamics with longer-term secular trends on prices is likely to reassert going forward. Before COVID-19, many countries faced persistently low price inflation, a trend driven by a complex mix of secular factors, such as technological progress, especially automation and digitisation, wage inequality, and demographic trends. All of these factors bring about important long-term relative price shi s in their wake. But post-COVID, their pass-through into a general increase in prices comes against another key set of filters.
True, during the expansionary phase, private-sector debt grew at very high rates, although it should be clarified that the growth in asset prices – unwarranted by fundamentals – was less than in other countries. Yet during these three years the Spanish banking system has proven reasonably resilient; only two small entities had to be taken under central bank control, and the volume of public aid made available was very small compared with the public resources earmarked to this end in other countries. The explanation for this different outcome in apparently similar situations must be sought in the quality of banking regulation and supervision, and in the retail banking-based business model of banks in Spain. What happened was that the countries which saw their banking systems collapse were largely those which, in the preceding years, had most vigorously defended the benefits of a “hands-off” government approach to the functioning of the financial sector. This was quite the opposite of the approach of the Banco de España, a central bank that took to heart the lessons of the serious banking crises of the 1980s and early 1990s in Spain. BIS Review 171/2010  1  Until the crisis erupted, the prevailing doctrine had advocated light-handed regulation, considering both our supervisory approach and our banking system’s business model, centred on traditional banking activities, as outmoded. But in the wake of the crisis, the pendulum has swung. Now the predominant approach in financial regulation has gone to the other extreme.

Testifying to this is the work programme in place in the main international agencies and fora, such as the G20, the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Intense work is under way to introduce major changes into the international regulatory and supervisory framework so as to prevent similar crises from recurring and to improve the financial system’s resilience moving forward. Such changes include most notably the new rules known as Basel III, which alter the regulation of the banking sector at the international level in several fundamental respects: banks will be required to have more and better-quality capital; explicit requirements will be made in respect of liquidity risk; and measures will be taken to mitigate the procyclical behaviour of financial activity. Further, the FSB is working on the treatment of systemic banks, i.e. those considered too important to fail due to their size, the level of complexity of their operations or their interconnectedness with other financial system participants. In future, these banks will have to meet greater regulatory and supervisory demands, which will need to be adapted to the type of activity, complexity and structure of each bank. Headway has been made and is being made in many other areas, such as remuneration in the financial sector, the regulation of rating agencies, etc. Generally speaking, Spain has much to learn from other countries about economic policies.
Moderate wage growth has reduced labour costs’ share of mainland business-sector income, particularly in tradable goods sectors. In manufacturing, the wage share has shown a trend fall since the mid-1990s and the level has been the lowest since 1970 in the past few years. BIS Review 28/2007  5  The wage share has fallen also in many other OECD countries. Emerging economies’ entry into global trade has resulted in a sharp increase in the supply of labour. The result has been a fall in the global price of labour relative to the return on capital. The wage share equilibrium may therefore have been reduced. Increased possibilities for relocating production abroad may have weakened labour’s bargaining power and moderated pay demands. During the current upturn, we have also seen that the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services has been lower than implied by historical relationships between inflation and wage and productivity growth. Increased competition in product markets may have dampened the rise in prices. In a survey from Norges Bank’s regional network 58 per cent of the companies responded that competition has increased in the past 2-3 years, while only 15 per cent reported that competition has decreased. In retail trade and services, almost 70 per cent responded that competition has intensified. Many of the companies that experience increased competition attribute this to the entry of more operators, including foreign operators, into the market. 6  BIS Review 28/2007  The Norwegian business sector has been quick to integrate information technology.

The Fund is approaching the nominal value of one year’s GDP and may reach two in the course of the next decade. This is based on the assumption that oil prices remain high over the next few years and then fall to about USD 30 per barrel. The government bases its withdrawals from the Fund on an average real return of 4 per cent for financing current expenditure. Given this spending rule, the return may come to finance more than 15 per cent of government expenditure in 10 years, which clearly shows that sound management of our petroleum wealth generates considerable benefits. The return represents future income that we forego if we draw on this wealth today. But even with this source of income, more than 80 per cent of  BIS Review 28/2007  13  expenditure must be covered by other sources. Financing the large pension payments that will have to be disbursed in the coming decades will be very demanding in any event. I have talked about some of the supply-side shocks that have had a positive effect on the Norwegian economy. Norway is now reaping the benefits of globalisation through increased international trade and freer labour flows across national borders. Globalisation also has its challenges and although I have not delved into these in my speech today, I would be delighted to discuss these and other issues with you in the question and answer session. Thank you for your attention! 14  BIS Review 28/2007
In this way, it was possible to retain overall liquidity in the bank system at an appropriate level. As you will see in graph 3, the average level of bank sight deposits changed very little throughout the year, if we compare each minimum reserve period with the next. Our other operational processes have also stood up well in the turmoil of the past few months. Payment transactions carried out between banks in the SIC system ran smoothly at all times, although banks have made greater use of SNB intraday loan facilities. In order to bridge liquidity bottlenecks at the end of the day, the National Bank provides a liquidityshortage financing facility to banks. This allows them to obtain liquidity on a temporary basis 2  BIS Review 150/2007  when needed, provided they have a limit with the SNB and provided this limit is continually covered with eligible securities. The continual coverage of the limits ensures that the banks have access to a liquidity cushion, even in critical situations. Actual use of the limits is generally restrained, and this has also been the case in recent months. Lessons learnt I would like to draw your attention to some of the lessons that we have already learnt from the current crisis. I will mention four points. First, the worldwide money market upheaval clearly shows how highly integrated international financial markets are today. Local crises can spread around the globe in a flash. The money market crisis is unlikely to have been overcome yet.

More widely, the future Prudential Regulation Authority will work to transform the climate of prudential regulation. The Bank’s prudential supervision will avoid ticking boxes, instead being centred on making judgments about big risks to safety and soundness. We want this to be as collaborative, open and honest as possible – a different relationship between banks and their supervisors. One that revolves around penetrating and forensic analysis of the business and, where necessary, frank discussions with senior management and the board. Not a negotiation. And a regime where the Bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority has the powers to underpin pursuit of material concerns about safety and soundness, based largely on whether firms meet the broad statutory criteria – the Threshold Conditions – for being authorised. Macroprudential policy: keeping the regime up to speed, and taking away the punchbowl No set of static rules, regulations and structures will keep the system safe for ever. As time passes, and the financial system evolves we cannot put an ever increasing burden on microsupervisors of individual firms to compensate for outdated regulatory regimes. The market will eventually take the system to the edges of the box the authorities have tried to put it in. Policymakers therefore need to be able to move the box when circumstances warrant. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  This is where macroprudential comes in – keeping the rules of the game up to date, and leaning against exuberance. In the UK, the Financial Policy Committee is charged precisely with those tasks.
A key facet of the economic reforms has been the active participation of the private sector in all aspects of the economy particularly in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. Now turning to the Kingdom’s goals and aspirations for the next decades. We have a clear vision that Saudi Arabia will represent an industrial hub among the region's countries, leveraging off on its strategic location, competitive supply of energy, size of the local market, ease of access to global markets, and the growing partnerships between the public and private sectors. This strategy fulfils our State’s goal of diversifying our economic production base away from Oil. For this purpose, we have encouraged and will continue to encourage the private sector by providing attractive incentives, including the setting up of industrial zones in various parts of the country, equipping them with various infrastructural facilities and by increasing the capital base of specialized credit institutions to provide long-term loans to entrepreneurs. Nevertheless, the Saudi economy is facing a number of challenges the most important of which is the increasing rate of inflation. Although inflation was less than 1 percent on average in the last two decades, it rose to 2.2 percent in 2006 and it continued to increase during the last months, exceeding 4 percent in last August according to the Central Department of Statistics and Information. Our concern is that factors that caused accelerating inflation are still in existence.

ahap Kavcolu: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr ahap Kavcolu, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the 91st Ordinary Meeting of the General Assembly, Ankara, 28 March 2023. *** Esteemed Shareholders, Distinguished Guests, Before I start my speech, I would like to wish Allah Almighty's mercy on our citizens who lost their lives in the devastating earthquakes in February, I extend my condolences to their grieving families, and I wish a speedy recovery to those who are still being treated. I would like to commemorate again Prof. Yusuf Tuna, our esteemed professor and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, who passed away last year. Before moving on to the agenda items to be discussed at the General Assembly, I would like to share with you our assessments regarding the macroeconomic outlook and our monetary policy implementations. In the last part of my speech, I will summarize our activities in 2022. Distinguished Participants, In 2022, while the negative effects of the pandemic had not yet been fully eliminated, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war that took place in Türkiye's immediate region, supply constraints appeared again and particularly energy prices and global commodity and food prices rose rapidly. In addition to the geopolitical uncertainties that emerged due to the war, the supply-demand imbalances that persisted in the aftermath of the pandemic caused inflation to increase rapidly on a global scale, reaching historically high levels.
For the Federal Reserve, this means that we will devote even greater attention to the institutions that now constitute the center of our financial system, as well as to the clearance and settlement backbone. It means we need to make a greater investment in looking at risks in the financial system as a whole, not just those that have their origin in banks. And it means that we will have to continue to intensify our cooperation with other supervisory and regulatory authorities. The U.S. financial system is of course only as strong as our economy as a whole. Overall, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy look quite strong. But the size of our fiscal deficit, and the risks posed by our large external imbalance, place a greater burden than would otherwise be the case on the credibility of U.S. monetary policy. In this context, it is particularly important that we preserve the high degree of confidence that now seems to exist that U.S. monetary policy will respond appropriately to the evolving balance of risks in the overall economic outlook, and particularly that we will maintain price stability. This is critically important to sustaining the current expansion, and to sustaining confidence in U.S. financial markets over time. And getting monetary policy right is one of the most important things we can to do contribute to financial stability as well. BIS Review 33/2004  5

We expect largely unchanged unit labour costs over the next three years due to low wage increases and rising productivity. We also expect the Swedish krona to continue to strengthen (Figure 22). This will mean that inflationary pressure will be low during the forecast period. Repo rate at all-time low At the monetary policy meeting in December, the Riksbank decided to maintain the repo rate at the all-time low of 0.25 per cent, standing fast by its previous assessment that it will not be necessary to raise the repo rate until the autumn of 2010 (Figure 23). The background to this decision is that a low level of resource utilisation, together with a slow development of prices and wages, is expected over the next three years. In order to meet the inflation target and to support economic recovery, the repo rate must remain low for a long time. This is the same repo rate path that we adopted as long ago as July. Since then, the forecasts for GDP growth and employment have certainly been revised upwards. The forecast for resource utilisation has accordingly been revised upwards. However, at the same time, the forecasts for inflation have been revised downwards. These two changes largely cancel each other out as regards their effect on monetary policy. Wage formation has functioned well for more than a decade Wage formation has functioned well over the last ten to fifteen years. The development of wages has been compatible with low and stable inflation.
The Central Bank also introduced a Monetary Policy Consultative Committee (MPCC) comprising academics, professionals and private sector representatives, enabling the Central Bank to obtain views of the private sector to be used in the monetary policy formulation process. In addition, the Central Bank started to enunciate its monetary  13  and financial policies for a medium-term horizon though a Road Map, which was unveiled at the beginning of each year. 105 Consecutive Months of Single Digit Inflation In spite of these modifications to the framework of conducting monetary policy over time, Sri Lanka continued to suffer from double digit inflation until 2009 as a combined outcome of high budget deficits and loose fiscal policy, reactive rather than proactive monetary policy, frequent domestic supply disruptions and international commodity price shocks. In June 2008, inflation increased to 28.2 per cent, the highest level of inflation since 1980s. In order to manage this situation within the monetary targeting framework, the Central Bank used strict quantitative monetary targets with increased policy interest rates while also imposing restrictions on access to the Central Bank reverse repurchase facility. In a display of validity of monetary targeting, the Central Bank was able to bring down inflation from the peak to near zero levels within a 12-month period. It was the sharpest disinflation the country has experienced in the history of Sri Lanka, but it must also be noted that the weak global commodity prices also contributed to this decline to some extent.

The monetary targets were then translated into a permissible level of credit to the private sector by commercial banks after allowing for the impact of the behaviour of the external sector and the credit requirements of the government.” This is a classic characterisation of an annual monetary programme, which is a crucial element in monetary aggregate targeting. Based on Irving Fisher’s Quantity Theory of Money, monetary aggregate targeting seeks to explain the relationship between money growth and nominal economic growth (which is the combination of real economic growth and inflation). In this framework, as monetary policy instruments attempt to influence the final objective of inflation by first affecting monetary aggregates, broad money supply was considered the intermediate target. For operational purposes, reserve money or base money, which could be influenced and monitored by the Central Bank on a daily basis, was considered the operating target. The operating target and the intermediate target, both being monetary aggregates, were linked to each other through the money multiplier. 9  An Evolving Exchange Rate System While monetary aggregate targeting remained the framework for the conduct of monetary policy in Sri Lanka, the exchange rate regime also underwent a gradual evolution. The managed floating exchange rate system broadly remained a crawling band arrangement as the margin associated with the foreign exchange transactions was increased from time to time.