samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For example, the current capital rules incentivise firms to reduce the volumes of outstanding derivative transactions on their books, as this reduces the capital charge applied. This is achieved by ”tearing up” or closing out unwanted trades. While it is not the primary intended consequence, some of this activity also makes firms simpler and more resolvable which should, in turn, reduce risks to financial stability. However, some innovation is pure regulatory arbitrage – that is, action taken by firms to reduce specific regulatory requirements without any commensurate reduction in their risk. Let me share with you a few recent examples of behaviour that might be problematic, even if they comply with the specified rules. Off-balance sheet leverage. The leverage ratio requires all on-balance sheet assets to carry a minimum level of capitalisation regardless of their risk. Off-balance sheet transactions are also captured in the leverage ratio, but if an on-balance sheet transaction can be restructured into an economically similar off-balance sheet transaction, it may not always attract the exact same capital charge. We have noticed that some  20  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  20  institutions are now moving on-balance-sheet financing to off-balance-sheet formats using special purpose vehicles, derivatives, agency structures or collateral swaps. Some of these structures might meet the detailed requirements for calculating a specific financial ratio whilst others may have a harmless motivation. But we have noticed that some carry material credit risk which escapes the detailed aspects of the capital framework.

Veerathai Santiprabhob: Monetary and financial sector policy – moving forward Speech by Dr Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT), Bangkok, 1 June 2016. *  *  *  Members of the FCCT Executive Committee, Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, Good evening to you all, It is my pleasure to be here with you tonight. Although this is my first time speaking at the FCCT, I can feel the vibes of active journalism, which underpins the club’s foundation and its long history in the community of journalists in Thailand. As one of the oldest press clubs in Southeast Asia, I would like to thank you for your continued commitment and contribution to the Thai economy and the Thai society. Public perception and expectation indeed play a large part in establishing credibility and effectiveness of economic policy. As public opinion influencers, journalists greatly contribute to achieving desired policy outcome. As we progress half way through the year, today I would like to share with you the Monetary Policy Committee’s latest economic assessment and monetary policy stance to support the current economic recovery and safeguard stability of the Thai financial system. After that, I will turn to the Bank of Thailand’s financial sector development policy, with a view to facilitating Thailand’s economic transition towards strong, sustainable and inclusive growth. Let me start by talking about recent developments in the global financial markets.
Svein Gjedrem: Economic perspectives Annual address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank, Oslo, 11 February 2010. *  *  *  This current global crisis had its origins in an abundant supply of credit, market participants who took steadily higher risk and a lack of oversight on the part of banks, companies and authorities. This is reminiscent of a play by Bjørnstjerne Bjørnson’s entitled “A Bankrupt”. In a conversation between the main character, Tjælde, a businessman, and his daughter Valborg, she says that no man of honour would keep his family or his creditors in ignorance of the events that foreshadow a crisis. Her father rebukes her: 1 “… you don’t understand what a business-man’s hope is from one day to the other – always a renewed hope. That fact does not make him a swindler. He may be unduly sanguine, perhaps – a poet, if you like, who lives in a world of dreams – or he may be a real genius, who sees land ahead when no one else suspects it.” The conversation is also reminiscent of current discussions about accounting principles. Then, as now, the mark-to-market value of assets was under debate. Tjælde says: “[…] values are fluctuating things; and [a businessman] may always have in hand some venture which, though it cannot be specified, may alter the whole situation.” Valborg has little regard for ventures at creditors’ expense. She thinks accounts should be transparent.

The cost level began to rise, although this was related to the sharp improvement in Norway’s terms of trade at that time and a gradual pickup in growth abroad. Prices for Norwegian exports such as oil, gas, metals, minerals, fish and freight, rose markedly, while prices for imported goods fell. From 2003 to 2008, terms-of-trade gains alone pushed up national income by more than 20 per cent, or a good 4 per cent per year. Institutions and mechanisms had also been put in place to manage the sharp increase in income. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which is now called the Government Pension Fund Global, and the fiscal guidelines were established with the express purpose of preventing fluctuations in oil prices from feeding through to the mainland economy. Improved terms of trade, higher revenues and increased government spending contributed to a shift in real resources towards sheltered sectors and to a stronger krone, but at the same time the fiscal rule provided a basis for growth in business sectors other than just the oil industry and the public sector through the decade. Norway had a plentiful supply of labour from new EU  6  BIS Review 15/2010  countries and experienced several years of high output growth. At the same time, the inflation target for monetary policy provided a sound anchor for inflation expectations. In 2008 the expansionary period was drawing to a close. Costs had risen sharply, credit growth had been strong, the interest rate had been raised and house prices had started to fall.
Personally, I think this is quite natural, as it is clearly difficult for a central bank to even attain its traditional objectives of price stability and macroeconomic stability under such circumstances. Trying to uphold financial stability then becomes a way of attaining the traditional monetary policy objectives. Many people believe that to achieve this it is necessary for the central banks to play an important role in the emerging macroprudential policy field. Another conclusion is that the central banks’ toolboxes should be expanded to include tools that can be used once a crisis has occurred and the policy rate has been cut as far as it can, that is, tools of the type used in the crisis should be made into a more permanent part of the monetary policy toolbox, although they hopefully will not need to be used too often. If this is done, it will mean that the central banks’ operational frameworks after the crisis will become both slightly more flexible and slightly more complex than they were before. One might say that we are going from a situation with one instrument and a relatively straightforward and clear objective, to a situation with several instruments and a more multifaceted objective. This sounds quite logical and natural to my ears, given what has happened in recent years, and I believe that this is the direction in which we are headed. But as I mentioned in my discussion of independence, there are some problems that need to be resolved along the way.

This development has caused some analysts to talk about “the missing deflation”.5 The so-called Phillips curve, which shows the relationship between the rate of inflation and economic activity, appears to have flattened compared with before.6 One possible explanation for this development is that the monetary policy conducted in recent decades around the world – where independent central banks have primarily focussed on attaining low and stable inflation – has gradually succeeded in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. This has meant that the Phillips curve has stabilised in a situation with low average inflation. It is not entirely clear why this would also have contributed to reducing the slope of the Phillips curve, but we cannot rule out the possibility that if expectations are anchored better, price-setting and wage formation will be less sensitive to changes in economic activity. So, even if a monetary policy aimed at keeping inflation low and stable was perhaps not the main explanation for the Great Moderation, it is possible that it made an enduring impression in the form of a flatter Phillips curve. We cannot know whether this phenomenon is temporary or permanent. But if it is the case that we have had a fundamental change in the way the economy functions, it is also possible that this should lead to the central bank adapting, at least to some extent, the policy it conducts. A flatter Phillips curve implies that inflation has become less sensitive to the domestic demand situation – that it varies less with cyclical phases.
In my view, however, the technical innovations are not the only explanation. The deregulations that began in the 1980s, as well as the consolidation of the federal budget during the 1990s, should also be mentioned as major factors. The deregulations have helped to strengthen America’s corporate sector and the improvement in the federal finances led to increased confidence among households and firms as well as somewhat lower long bond rates. Low interest rates and higher productivity growth then paved the way for the massive wave of investment. The U.S. economy’s growth rate shot up and unemployment dropped to levels that hardly anyone believed could be combined with low, stable inflation. As outcomes proved earlier forecasts wrong, assessments of how strong demand’s long-term growth could be without generating rising inflation were adjusted gradually upwards. Turning then to share prices in the United States, in the first place the Nasdaq exchange with its predominance of high-tech companies, we can see that expectations of corporate profits rose rapidly  BIS Review 20/2001  1  to levels that had not been seen since the 1930s. The trend peaked last year with share prices at record levels and a GDP growth rate above five per cent, in some quarters even higher. The reverse side of the medal lies in the imbalances that have built up during this period. The United States has been living on borrowed money; even though the federal budget was first consolidated and then generated a growing surplus, investment exceeded aggregate saving.

 Completion of important files, such as the prudential treatment of banks’ exposures to sovereign risk (the bank-sovereign link), EDIS (European Deposit Insurance Scheme), euro area reforms.  2020 budget – better use of resources.  Aligning the budgetary provisions of the NATO with those of the EU. Exemption of the rise in military expenditure, for NATO countries that are EU Member States, from the EDP (excessive deficit procedure) rule and from the MTO (medium-term objective).  Monetary policy normalisation and fiscal policy sustainability. 4
A March 2021 survey shows that central banks’ interest in big data and machine learning has increased markedly over the last few years. 8 The SNB is no exception. The COVID-19 pandemic brought the need to exploit non-standard data into sharp focus. In normal times, official economic indicators and surveys are sufficient to monitor economic developments. But such standard data are only available at lower frequency and with a certain time delay. With events unfolding rapidly during the first wave of the COVID19 crisis, the need for non-standard, real-time data that are available at higher frequency became more pressing than ever before. To monitor economic activity, daily mobility and daily card transaction data became particularly useful as concurrent economic indicators. During the first lockdown in spring  8  Sebastian Doerr, Leonardo Gambacorta and José María Serena Garralda (2021), ‘Big data and machine learning in central banking’, BIS Working Papers, No. 930, March 2021. Page 7/10  2020, card payments data showed the sharp drop in economic activity in real time. 9 While online payments in retail trade – represented by the red bars in Chart 7 – increased, stationary card payments fell by more than 20% in March and April compared to the previous year, as can be seen from the blue bars. Such data also allow a sectoral and regional breakdown. We could thus observe the pronounced payment shifts that took place from urban to suburban and rural areas, and across cantons.

As I have noted, to the extent that these are sensible regulatory improvements in line with global norms intended to enable delegation and global business models to operate effectively and practically while managing risk, one would have little concern. To the extent, however, that they are motivated by Brexit and a desire to pull activity and risk back within jurisdictional boundaries,  22  contrary to current global practice, I do have a concern that they could act as the  harbinger of fragmentation to come. That would raise the cost and reduce the efficiency of market-based intermediation of savings in the EU and, if it led to wider effects, further afield. It would also slow, and perhaps frustrate, the development of market-based finance globally as a way of diversifying economic risks and benefits across jurisdictions and of dampening economic and financial shocks. And from a macroprudential perspective, for the reasons I have set out earlier this morning, that could be the biggest long-term loss. 22  The stated aims of the European Commission’s proposal are to ensure effectively supervision of outsourcing, delegation and risk transfer arrangements in third countries.
So early action is important to lower the cost of the transition. If we are ever to reach net zero, a number of sectors are going to have to adapt their business models on a fundamental level. As  Page 6  the report sets out, it will be in the collective interests of financial institutions to support counterparties that have credible plans to adapt – and ultimately reduce their exposures to those sectors of the economy that are inconsistent with a net zero policy. [10] At the same time, the financial sector cannot run ahead of the real economy: we need real change to make the economy more energy efficient and expand the provision of renewable energy. While that process takes place, banks and insurers need to provide finance to more carbon-intensive sectors of the economy, precisely in order to allow them to invest in the transition. Cutting off finance to these corporates too quickly could prove counterproductive, and have wide-ranging macroeconomic and societal consequences, including through elevated energy prices – potentially akin to those whose negative effects we are experiencing today. Another key point for me is that no action on climate delivers the worst outcome from our scenarios. A naïve comparison of loss rates in the two net-zero scenarios and the NAA scenario might suggest otherwise; in fact for banks, credit losses were lower under no action than for late action. But this is misleading because of the very different end-points of the scenarios.

With the world economy now beginning to catch a cold from the slowdown in the US economy, the quality and competitiveness of our exports means that our companies are better equipped than others to hold their own in the global marketplace. Foreign trade not only represents Switzerland's growth driver, but it is also our friend when economic times are hard. BIS Review 45/2008  1
Miguel Fernández Ordóñez: Recent decisions adopted by the Bank of Spain Testimony of Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Parliamentary Committee on Financial Affairs, Madrid, 2 April 2009. *  *  *  Honourable Members of Parliament, Let me begin this testimony by thanking you for the opportunity to explain the recent decisions adopted by the Banco de España as supervisor of the banking system in relation to Caja de Ahorros de Castilla La Mancha (CCM). Last Saturday, the Executive Commission of the Banco de España adopted the decision to replace the governing bodies of the institution with three provisional central bank nominees. On Sunday, 29 March 2009, the government, in an extraordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers, passed a Royal Decree-Law authorising guarantees by the Treasury for a maximum amount of € billion backing the loan the Banco de España could grant to CCM. These two decisions have allowed CCM to continue operating normally and to meet all its payment obligations and commitments. This solution was adopted once a "private" solution to CCM's problems under the Savings Bank Deposit Guarantee Fund had been deemed inviable. As you know, CCM has held talks (exploratory in some cases, more advanced in others) with other savings banks with a view to participating in a merger process giving rise to a new economically and financially viable institution. In this connection, assistance from the Savings Bank Deposit Guarantee Fund had been envisaged to smooth the process.

Spain has followed the lead of the developed countries, and you should rest assured that CCM will meet all its commitments to depositors and other creditors. Second, the Maastricht Treaty prevents central banks from extending emergency liquidity assistance to an ailing institution, such as CCM, without the appropriate collateral. Given the amounts that might have to be committed, the Spanish Treasury had to provide explicit guarantees to the central bank, so as not to infringe the Treaty’s prohibition on central banks extending "monetary financing" to public Treasuries. *** Having explained the substance of and the reasons behind the urgent replacement of CCM’s directors, allow me to offer greater details on the Banco de España’s past supervisory measures in relation to CCM and its current situation. Before that, however, I should highlight what is a primordial starting point: CCM is a credit institution with a positive net worth. That is to say, and in the vernacular of the press, the institution has no "hole" in its balance sheet. Yet this does not mean it is not facing serious problems, the cause of which must be sought in an inappropriate management of risk and a forceful business expansion – especially in the real estate sector – funded largely through resort to the international bond markets, generating sizable imbalances. Past experience shows that these credit expansion policies are very dangerous if unaccompanied by the related risk control measures since, generally, they usually entail a relaxing of credit standards. Responsibility for these decisions falls on CCM's previous directors.
Further, the value added tax on selected agricultural equipment and spares, was zero rated as incentive to increase agricultural production and productivity. (ii)  Tourism sector: – In order to diversify the economy and attain broad based economic growth, Government increased the allocation to the sector to improve access to the Northern Tourism Circuit (infrastructural development in Mbala and Kasaba Bay). Further, Government will embark on the development of a new world class tourism area in Livingstone, and step-up the development of road infrastructure in key national parks namely, Luangwa and Kafue. (iii)  Manufacturing: – In order to expand the manufacturing base, Government is promoting the establishment of Multi-Facility Economic Zones (MFEZ) on the Copperbelt (Chambishi), and Lusaka (Lusaka south and east) provinces by providing for fiscal incentives and quality infrastructure development in the budget. Operations at the Chambishi MFEZ have already commenced. Further, the budget reclassified and re-categorised certain manufacturing materials with the aim of lowering customs duty rates. (iv)  Mining sector: – In light of the adverse impact of the global economic crisis on the mining sector and with the view of easing these effects, the Zambian Government introduced tax concessions, which included removal of the windfall tax, increasing capital allowance to 100 percent as an investment incentive, and reduction of customs duty on Heavy Fuel Oils.

Conclusion  The Bank of Zambia and the Government will continue with efforts to deal with challenges from the global economic and financial crisis, which still remain significant and continue to threaten macroeconomic stability and the long term growth path of the economy. In this regard, focus will be on attainment of the following objectives: •  Maintaining macroeconomic stability;  •  Maintaining fiscal prudence to ensure that it does not become the source of instability;  •  Increasing or consolidating public and private sector investment in infrastructure that builds the long term productive capacity of the economy and helps to diversify the economic base;  •  Improving the business climate by lowering the cost of doing business; and  •  Harnessing regional markets as an alternative source of demand for exports as well as source of supply for goods and services, including energy. 6  BIS Review 161/2009
Our policy works much better and more efficiently when we are open and clear about our objectives and the reasons for our decisions. An important piece of the puzzle is that we now have a "direct” and clear inflation target. Although the fixed exchange rate was aimed "indirectly” at providing low and stable inflation, this was not really as clear. But with a fixed exchange rate monetary policy is also governed by external events, which has both advantages and disadvantages. Up to the beginning of the 1990s, the Riksbank was on the whole a closed and rather secretive institution, just like most other central banks at that time. Today the situation is the opposite. We are now considered one of the world’s most open central banks. The fact that an independent authority must provide opportunities for insight and evaluation is natural in our society. Another aspect that may be of importance is that the openness puts a little extra pressure on us to develop and do our job as well and as efficiently as possible. And I can note that our methods have changed substantially. Willingness to change and rapid development in our working methods The fact that a lot has happened since the mid-1970s when we sat and drew diagrams and forecasts by hand on graph paper is not surprising. But even during my period in office the last six years our methods of working have shown a rapid development.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Foreign trade is Switzerland’s growth driver Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at OSEC Business Network Switzerland, Zurich, 17 April 2008. The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Foreign trade has played a major role during the present economic cycle. Over the past two years, it has made an exceptional contribution to GDP growth – with figures that bear comparison to the two upswing periods of the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. This strong export performance not only reflects a reorientation to accommodate the world economy’s new growth hubs, but is also the result of successful sector specialisation and the Swiss export industry’s premium-quality positioning. Switzerland’s watchmaking and pharmaceutical industries have been particularly impressive in this regard. Thanks to the speed at which its export industry has been able to adapt to global demand, Switzerland is well placed to benefit from the prevailing increase in earnings within the emerging markets. By specialising in the technology segment and tailoring its exports to customer needs, Switzerland is not only able to reap the rewards of upswings in the global economic cycle.