samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This institution has supported the Romanian banking sector too, especially during the privatization process. Joining MIGA finalized the normalization process. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Throughout the 1990s and up until the EU granted Romania the functional market economy status in 2004, and later on, until the actual EU Accession in 2007, the IMF and the World Bank have been our main economic and financial external partners, during the transition. It goes without saying that one central pillar of this transition was represented by the continuous reforms of the national legislation regarding the central bank and the financial sector reforms, which have benefited from the extensive contributions of IMF and World Bank staff. For instance, the essential legislation governing the banking system was drafted with the assistance of IMF experts. In this context, I would like to mention the seven IMF Stand-by Agreements that, in addition to the Balance of Payments support, have also contributed to the implementation of structural reforms prior to the EU accession. Similarly, the World Bank's programs have contributed to the development of the Romanian financial and banking system (e.g. the Financial and Enterprise Sector Adjustment Loan (FESAL) – focused on reforming the financial sector, and the Private Sector Adjustment Loan (PSAL) – offered support towards the privatization of the Romanian banks and to the development of the monetary and capital market). During this transition period marked by major changes, I would like to highlight one element of continuity.

These two items, energy and food, are traditionally the most volatile items in headline inflation. Together they constitute about 30% of the average consumption basket, but they have by far the strongest impact on the perception of price increases: this is what consumers buy the most frequently. 1/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  On the other hand, we now face the risk of entrenched inflation, which lies in the underlying or 'core' component. It actually encompasses roughly 70% of the average consumption basket: manufactured goods, and services, which weigh roughly twice as much as manufactured goods. Core inflation has risen steadily while less fast over the past months, to reach 5.7% in March. In other words, inflation has become more widespread, and potentially more persistent. But monetary policy is most effective on core inflation, and it is our duty to bring it back under control. Our monetary policy response to rising inflation has been strong and swift. Our past rate increases (+350 basis points since last July) are in the process of passing through to the real economy, and we expect their effect to amplify in coming months. We at the ECB are now moving from a "sprint" to a "long-distance race": at our next meetings, we will make decisions on potential new rate hikes by looking at three key economic indicators: inflation outlook, underlying inflation and monetary policy transmission.
  Structural reform fatigue is settling in, with electorates weary in both creditor and debtor countries to pursue tough measures to ensure medium-term fiscal consolidation and containment of the sovereign crisis in Europe. Moreover, financial markets remain jittery as the final outcomes of agreed commitments are not a foregone conclusion.   The risk of disorderly outcomes is high, and balance sheet repair, especially of those banks most exposed to the European periphery, should be bolstered. Hoping for the best is no substitute for preparing for the worst, and the markets are well  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  aware of that. More extreme measures on debt restructuring might be unavoidable if fiscal transfers are ruled out and fatigue settles in debtor countries.   In an environment of financial uncertainty and fiscal retrenchment, monetary policy should remain supportive. Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and smaller, financially stable AEs, are threading carefully in this uncertain environment, and as we saw a few years ago, it is unlikely that full decoupling will occur under most scenarios. The Fund’s advice should properly recognize that the rebalancing challenges are not the same across this heterogeneous group of economies; thus, an adequate level of differentiation in terms of policy advice is called for.

In this regard, we would like to note that:   If the external scenario should worsen significantly, many EMEs with flexible exchange rates and inflation-targeting regimes would have scope to adjust monetary policy, thanks to a timely process of raising interest rates to contain overheating risks. Going forward, these economies will be able to react flexibly to changing global circumstances in a context of anchored inflationary expectations.   Other EMEs have limited room for maneuver, as their economies have expanded beyond their potential output, with widening fiscal and external deficits, and thus today face the risk that external shocks might unhinge inflationary expectations and force pro-cyclical monetary and fiscal policy adjustments.   A third group of EMEs has maintained structurally high national saving rates throughout the expansion phase of the global cycle and might be subject to a natural deceleration as the global economy cools down. In these cases, undertaking reforms to boost domestic demand would help sustain both medium-term global rebalancing and short-term policy accommodation.   Economies that are being affected by high commodity prices, particularly LowIncome Countries (LICs), should strive to develop targeted policies to the most vulnerable groups through efficient cash transfers, instead of across-the-board subsidies. The international community should strive to support these efforts through similar measures, as demand subsidies or export constraints in non-LIC economies exacerbate commodity price pressures. Policy advice by the Fund should be tailored to these different groups of economies.
It is therefore important to publish forecasts for inflation and the real economy, which the Riksbank does. We will never live in a world where it is possible to fully predict the future. Moreover, our knowledge of how the transmission mechanism works, that is, how an interest rate change works its way through the economy, is far from perfect. But given the available information and with the knowledge available we shall make the best possible forecasts and it shall be possible to evaluate our forecasts. When inflation deviates from the target it shall be possible to understand why this happened and to assess the deliberations that were held. To publish a forecast for the repo rate on top of all this, which is something few central banks do, makes it easier for us to find the most reasonable balance between attaining the inflation target and stabilising the real economy. It also helps us explain our policy. We also do this by presenting a number of alternative scenarios for the economy and showing what consequences these would have for monetary policy. Popular and unpopular interest rate decisions In the long run it is the actual "delivery” of low and stable inflation that creates confidence in long-term stable prices. But the economy can be subjected to unforeseen shocks that affect inflation and monetary policy cannot have the precision required to constantly maintain inflation at the target level. Deviations from the inflation target have happened before and will happen again. The important thing is that they are temporary.

According to Friedman, it is therefore best for monetary policy to create the right conditions for a stable price level and to focus on the variables that a central bank can control, such as the money supply. In the 1970s and 1980s a number of countries applied a monetary policy regime that was based on steering the money supply. However, research has shown that there is no stable relationship between the money supply and inflation. The rapid financial developments and the use of new, alternative methods of payment have contributed to the money supply not functioning well as a target variable for monetary policy in our present society. Nor is the rate of circulation of money constant; it can vary substantially. It is therefore more natural to focus on trying to directly steer inflation and allow the money supply to remain one indicator among many. The past few decades’ research has pointed to the importance of inflation expectations. Although there is a relationship in the short run between unemployment and inflation, the central bank cannot make use of this in the long run, as companies and individuals will realise what policy is being conducted and adapt their expectations accordingly. For example, wage-earners may demand higher wages as compensation for coming inflation. This will in turn have a negative effect on employment. Monetary policy thus cannot have a lasting influence on real economic variables.
But credibility starts with the strength of the institutional framework of the central bank and its independence from pressure to compromise price stability. Economic outcomes will be worse where that framework is vulnerable to political challenge. The rate of growth in real economies will be higher, more stable and more durable where central bank independence is beyond challenge. Thank you for allowing me to share these thoughts with you today.

2  BIS Review 35/2006  Globalisation involves both challenges and opportunities The increasing competition from, for instance, China, India and eastern Europe means that there is increasing pressure on the early industrialised nations to transform their trade and industry structure. This structural transformation will affect people, places and regions in different ways. However, history shows that free trade and increased economic integration lead to increased economic welfare for the world as a whole. The international division of labour that follows in the wake of globalisation leads to lower production costs and productivity gains, which in turn means that labour and investment in the industrialised nations can be moved to other sectors with more refined products and services. In that sectors and companies that are not internationally competitive are knocked out, scope is created for new employment in areas where different countries and regions have comparative advantages. However, for an individual country or region to benefit in this process, the “creative destruction” entailed in the structural transformation must lead to new jobs with a higher value added factor being created at the same rate as the old ones disappear. Effects on the labour market China’s and India’s integration into the world economy is sometimes described in the debate as a supply shock in the global labour market, which will result in rapidly-falling wages in the western world.
Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB and ESCB – ten-year anniversary Address by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the ceremony to mark the 10th anniversary of the European Central Bank and the European System of Central Banks, Frankfurt am Main, 2 June 2008. *  *  *  Mr President of the Republic, Sehr geehrte Frau Bundeskanzlerin, Mr President of the European Parliament, Mr President of the European Union, Mr President of the European Commission, Mr President of the Eurogroup, Ministers, Excellencies, fellow Governors, Ladies and gentlemen, Ten years ago, on 1 June 1998, the European Central Bank was founded, together with the European System of Central Banks, the ESCB. The primary mandate of the ECB and the ESCB was, and is, to preserve price stability and to safeguard the credibility of Europe's single currency, the euro, which was created seven months later. It was the will of the democracies of Europe that led to the creation of the ECB. Its mandate and its independence in fulfilling its mandate were given by the people of Europe on a multinational and multi-partisan basis. We are faithful to our mandate because we are faithful to the democratic will of the Member States. Jean Monnet writes in his Mémoires: “Rien n’est possible sans les hommes. Rien n’est durable sans les institutions”. “Nothing is possible without men.

The resolute pursuit of structural reforms in line with the Lisbon process, which are decisive in order to raise the long-term growth potential of Europe. And the lucid monitoring of the national competitive indicators, including unit labour costs. 2  BIS Review 69/2008  Mr President of the Parliament, Mr President of the Union, Mr President of the Commission, Mr President of the Eurogroup, Europe can count on the ECB and on the Eurosystem to implement in this century the historic task which was assigned to us at the end of the last century. We will be faithful to the primary mandate given to us by the Treaty. We know that our fellow citizens are asking us to deliver price stability. We know also that price stability is a prerequisite for financial stability, a very important objective at the current juncture. All the members of the Governing Council make their decisions taking into account the interests of the whole of the euro area, of 15 countries. We do not consider any particular country, but all 15 of them. Sehr geehrte Frau Bundeskanzlerin, This year in Aachen, upon receiving the Charlemagne Prize, you quoted Konrad Adenauer: “Gerade in Aachen wird man die Mahnung verstehen, dass Europa uns heute Schicksalsgemeinschaft ist. Dieses Schicksal zu gestalten ist uns übergeben”. “In Aachen, above all, people will understand the call: that Europe, for us today, is a community with a common destiny.
There are many examples of fraud that undermines said trust, such as identity theft when opening payment accounts, in “know your customer” procedures or to arrange and draw loans and credit; payment fraud, mainly in card transactions, transfers and remittances; and fraudulent offers of financial operations or services by unauthorised or unregistered operators, which are typically a prelude to actual fraud. More recently, though, new technologies and business models have paved the way for platforms and operators that, engaging in regulatory arbitrage, offer payment, credit or investment services without sufficient safeguards and transparency. Here I would specifically mention operators in the crypto-asset arena, which promise handsome rewards via apps, websites and apparently innocuous advertising, and sometimes even embed such offers in traditional payment service chains, making them harder to identify. Unfortunately, these practices do not distinguish between social groups, levels of financial literacy or risk profiles, and ultimately take a far greater toll on the more vulnerable groups, in particular young people and even teenagers, which is of particular concern. Against this background, and notwithstanding any action that might be taken by the public prosecution service, the courts or law enforcement authorities in relation to criminal offences, our role as supervisors is primarily a preventive one. This means oversight of advertising, ensuring that the registry of operators is fit for purpose and, very importantly, raising awareness of the risks among potential users and fostering their financial and digital education.

29.04.2022  Presentation of the Action Plan against Financial Fraud* Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  *iEnglish translation of the original speech in Spanish. First Deputy Prime Minister, State Secretary for Security, Chair of the National Securities Market Commission, authorities, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. The protocol we sign here today stands as a milestone in our efforts to enhance and reinforce action against potentially fraudulent offers of financial products and services. It comes at a particularly opportune time, with several factors giving rise to an increase in financial fraud, most notably growing digitalisation. Moreover, it is an excellent example of how a problem for citizens can be addressed far more effectively through collaboration between different stakeholders, be they public or private. In the case of the Banco de España, apart from the evident microprudential and macroprudential concern for the security and resilience of the supervised entities’ IT systems, the impact that fraudulent use of technology may have on the citizens and firms that use banking or credit services has been a concern of ours for some time. Such fraud can also come at a high reputational cost to the financial system, the proper functioning of which depends on mutual trust between supply and demand.
Organisational changes to address the challenge of financial innovation The role of regulators and supervisors is to contribute to harnessing in full the benefits of innovation while maintaining risks within reasonable and socially acceptable limits. As you can imagine, this is no easy task and requires the authorities themselves to undertake internal transformation processes so as to be able to appropriately meet these challenges. As a result of this need, the Banco de España has in recent years assigned growing resources to monitoring and analysing financial innovation. The first step was the creation, in February 2017, of an internal group with representatives from different business areas within our central bank to gain a cross-departmental view of the phenomenon and to promote coordination among these different areas. One year on, we have deemed it necessary to take a further step, assigning specific resources to the analysis of financial innovation. To do this, a new Associate Directorate General was created last March. This new area pursues three major aims: (i) to understand the dimension of the changes taking place, (ii) to analyse the consequences of the new developments, and (iii) to provide for coordination and contact with the market and the other authorities involved, including those from other jurisdictions since, in short, financial technological innovation is a global phenomenon. The ultimate aim is to develop an overview of the main features and challenges facing financial services-providers.

In this respect, cryptoassets or cryptotokens are one of the most striking developments in this area, going by the extensive media coverage some of them – such as the bitcoin – are receiving. But this does not mean that they are the most important or even the most promising innovation. Indeed, in my view, their current use poses more risks than benefits: they have a low level of acceptance as a means of payment, they are subject to extreme 3/6  volatility, they have numerous operating vulnerabilities and they have been related to fraudulent or illicit activities in many cases. I shall not, however, give an exhaustive list of the risks of crypto assets, since the position of the Banco de España in this connection is well-known. But I will draw attention to how important it is to disassociate cryptoassets or tokens from their underlying distributed ledger technology. Distributed ledger technology offers interesting possibilities insofar as it allows, in short, a ledger book to be shared securely among various agents. Although this technology is not yet sufficiently mature, it has the potential to generate efficiency gains and cost cuts in activities that require continuous reconciliations among various agents, either because such activities are relatively non-standardised, involve a high number of intermediaries or require complex processes. Areas such as securities trading and post-trading, international settlements, collateral management, trade finance and the management of digital identities might benefit from the use of this technology once it ultimately matures.
I have noted before the much greater degree of attention to the supply side given by the post-crisis MPC 4  relative to its pre-crisis predecessors. This is clearly accounted for by the much greater inability to forecast the evolution of supply and its impact on inflation (Charts 3 & 4). 2  Mark Carney’s recent speech illustrates that bank rate might have risen by 2-3 percentage points between August 2013 and the end of 2014 if the post crisis MPC’s had followed the reaction function of its pre-crisis predecessors. And the important role that forward guidance played in preventing financial markets and real economy agents acting in expectation of such tightening. 3 Miles (2015) 4 The rate of mentions of ‘supply’ and ‘productivity’ in the minutes of MPC meetings in the past decade has been about twice that in the decade prior to the crisis.

If this is confirmed, as I think probable, the overall picture is of an economy expanding around or a little above its potential rate of growth. The combination of lower rates of productivity and labour force growth mean that potential is growing at around 1.5% about a percentage point below its pre-crisis rate. 9  Trying to make very precise forecasts of the output gap is a fool’s errand but the balance of evidence is there appears to be little slack left in the labour market and little spare capacity in firms. Unemployment is at 4.2% – pretty much the MPC’s revised estimate of the natural rate. Underemployment is low. 10  Non-price measures – for example, surveys of recruitment difficulties and measures of churn in the  labour market – have been signalling increasing labour market tightness for a number of years. 11  Whole economy regular pay growth reached 2.5% in December and has stayed above that level through the first few months of 2018 though there has been a slight slowing in the latest – April – data (from 2.9% in March to 2.8% in April). The higher frequency measure of pay growth, 3 month on 3 month growth, has been above 2.5% for 11 months between last May and March this year – the longest run of such consistent wage growth since the crisis (Chart 7).