samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
On the one hand, further integration of labour, product and capital markets can be expected to reduce economic heterogeneity within the euro area. On the other hand, some degree of heterogeneity can be expected to remain and, indeed, it can be considered a natural feature of any monetary union. These propositions raise several important questions, for example: •  What kind of convergence processes has EMU set in motion? •  To what extent has EMU-induced convergence moderated economic heterogeneity within the euro area? •  What are the causes and consequences of sometimes sizeable and in some cases persistent inflation and output growth divergences across different euro area countries, in a macroeconomic environment shaped by the ECB’s monetary policy, which aims to preserve price stability for the euro area as a whole? These questions, which will be addressed in this workshop, relate to diverse but interrelated issues, such as trade integration, business cycle synchronisation, financial integration, structural reforms in product and labour markets, as well as inflation persistence and inflation differentials. I believe that the quality of the papers to be presented and the impressive group of discussants, chairpersons and panellists will contribute to fruitful debates. Looking at the titles of the various sessions of the workshop, I would like to share some thoughts with you on three specific topics. The first relates to the consequences of market integration for trade. The second, “closer to home” for a central banker, concerns inflation and output divergences across euro area countries and their implications for policy.

The third pertains to the role of the euro in fostering reforms in product, labour and financial markets. The implications of the integration of goods, services and financial markets for trade The first topic – the effects of market integration on trade – is particularly interesting, as it raises a number of issues which sometimes seem to lead to puzzling results. First, the conclusions about what we should expect as the trade effects of deeper integration are, in part, ambiguous – think, for example, of the effects of specialisation. Increased competition achieved by deregulation and the completion of the single market, as well as cross-border price transparency due to the single currency, may foster higher sectoral or industry-specific specialisation. Greater sectoral specialisation, as well as increased financial integration, should lead to increases in trade flows within the euro area. At the  BIS Review 46/2005  1  same time, however, if increased integration were to lead to more similar economic structures and business cycles, this could weaken trade flows within the euro area. But even if the expected effects of integration are not as ambiguous, appearing instead to be rather straightforward, the evidence available thus far seems not to fully conform with the expectations. Take, for example, the significant progress that has been made in the 1990s regarding product market reforms, which had positive effects on the integration and the degree of competition in goods and services markets in the euro area.
By potential output and potential growth we mean instead the output and growth that is possible without serious imbalances arising in the economy; the level of output at which supply and demand correspond and actual and expected inflation are in line with the central bank’s inflation target (assuming that there is one). The potential output level is not constant over time; it usually shows a growth trend, which is illustrated in Figure 1. This is mainly because technological developments mean that higher output can be achieved with the same amount of factors of production. Another reason could be long-term changes in the factors of production. The change in potential output from year to year is equal to the potential growth of the economy, which thus is the growth rate that is sustainable in the long term. Figure 1 shows the potential output level according to a simple statistical method where the trend, and thereby also the potential growth rate, is allowed to vary over time. The difference between actual and potential output is known as the output gap, and this reflects the cyclical variations in the economy. A negative output gap, that is to say, when actual output is lower than potential output, is usually connected with a recession. The demand pressure for goods, services and the factors of production is then small and there are ample unutilised resources in the economy. Price and wage increases are small and inflation is usually below the central bank’s target level.

Consequently, Switzerland – unlike other countries – was able to avoid introducing state-guaranteed bonds. With the drastic reduction in key rates and the subsequent decline in mortgage rates, the burden on households and companies was eased. In this way, the severity of the recession was somewhat alleviated and the risks of deflation reduced. However, the interest rate is now at a historic low and this means medium-term risks for the Swiss real estate market and financial stability. Experience shows that periods of low interest rates provide scope for excesses on the mortgage and real estate market. Consequently, in the current environment in particular, attention should be given to ensuring that past mistakes are not repeated. Caution must remain the watchword when granting loans. BIS Review 140/2009  1
This Forum seeks to address not just the question of facilitating transfers more efficiently, but how to make such transfers go further and do more to meet today’s most pressing global challenges – from access to healthcare and education, equal economic opportunity for all, to protection of the environment. Without addressing these challenges, economic freedom would remain an elusive dream for 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  many. This Forum will cover a broad range of issues – not all of which will have clear solutions. But we will most certainly learn more, understand better and hopefully, be able to determine what our next steps must be. With that in view, let me take this opportunity to offer some brief reflections on what those steps might be. Reinvigorating financial services to drive the SDGs First, we need to do more to reinvigorate financial services to drive the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Many countries in this region, including Malaysia, have made important progress in the adoption of the SDGs under the national development agenda. Certainly, Malaysia has had a long-standing commitment to the pursuit of sustainable and inclusive growth. Malaysia’s national economic development policies adopted since more than four decades ago reflect many of the SDGs. Like many central banks in this region, financial inclusion is an important priority of Bank Negara Malaysia – one that is in fact legislated as a mandate of the central bank, which is actually not all that common in many countries.

The list goes on. Yet, based on a recent survey report by GlobeScan, only one third of the private sector 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  respondents reflected on SDGs in setting long-term sustainability strategies for their organisations. This should concern us. In 2015, 15 years after the Millennium Development Goals were adopted, the United Nations itself conceded that the Millennium Development Goals, despite propelling significant progress, fell short for many people. So a different approach was taken for the SDGs. One that was more encompassing and inclusive. Five million people from 88 countries shared their deepest, most pressing concerns and aspirations to create the SDGs. These aspirations would ring hollow without the dedication and commitment of those with the influence and position to make a difference. For the financial sector, this needs to go beyond the cursory initiatives that have generally been associated with “corporate social responsibilities”. Greater progress by financial institutions to more fully embrace sustainable principles in their business strategies will play an important catalytic role in delivering the SDGs. Among other things, it would provide a stronger focus on needs-based selling, increase financial resources that are directed at economic activities that promote sustainable goals, and encourage support for businesses to adopt sustainable practices. Looking beyond remittances Turning more specifically to remittances which is the focus of this Forum, more can and should be done to amplify the developmental impact of remittances.
Published assessments of policy impact can improve public understanding of, and debate about, often difficult distributional choices. 9  When it comes to monetary policy, the position until recently has been rather different. There has been no particular clamour for published assessments of the distributional impact of monetary policy. Why? Because monetary policy has benefitted from, not one, but two “Get Out of Jail” cards. Both have their origin in Milton Friedman’s 1968 Presidential Address to the American Economic Association, half a century ago. 10  The first follows from the neutrality of monetary policy with respect to real variables over the longer run. 11  Typically, this neutrality is associated with the total level of resources in the economy, such as employment or output – the vertical long-run Phillips curve. But neutrality applies, with no less force, to the distribution of resources in the economy, whether between sectors or regions. In theory, monetary policy ought also to be neutral in its longer-run impact on economic inequality. 9 10 11  For example, Ball et al (2013) and Büchs et al (2011). Friedman (1968). Patinkin (1987) traces the history of thought relating to the neutrality of money. 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  The second Friedman point is that the monetary policy tools of the trade should be simple and singular – for example, the money supply or short-term interest rate. These instruments are levied at an economy-wide level.

Prasarn Trairatvorakul: Monetary policy in an interconnected global economy Opening remarks by Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at a conference co-hosted by the Bank of Thailand and the International Monetary Fund, Bangkok, 1 November 2013. *  *  *  Distinguished Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to welcome you to this conference on “Monetary Policy in an Interconnected Global Economy,” co-hosted by the Bank of Thailand and the International Monetary Fund. I would like to especially thank our international guests who have travelled a long way to be with us today. This conference will focus on several issues pertaining to cross-country linkages, international shock transmission, and how monetary policy should be conducted in response to global spillovers. One of the most important trends over the past decades is the rapid integration of international trade and finance. Trade in goods and services, as a share of world GDP, increased from around 15 percent in the early 1980s to around 25 percent before the start of the crisis in 2007. These developments reflect, in part, the increasing internationalization of production through vertical trade linkages. We have also seen a significant increase in financial integration. While the annual growth in world trade over the past 40 years has exceeded the growth in world GDP by around 2.6 percent on average, growth in international external positions outpaced growth in world GDP by almost double that – around 4.8 percent. What are the implications of these tighter trade and financial linkages?
Our main concern is that across euro area countries domestic vulnerabilities are still very large, which implies a limited ability to withstand adverse external shocks and to kick start a new phase of sustainable growth. The vulnerabilities of many euro area countries are related to the high stock of debt, both public and private, and to a number of structural rigidities and institutional bottlenecks that prevent an optimal allocation of resources across factors of production, and thus limit total factor productivity growth. The current environment not only urgently calls for the implementation of structural reforms, but also provides the right conditions for their implementation. With our monetary policy, the ECB is greatly contributing to an environment favourable to implementing structural reforms: our accommodative monetary policy stance helps countries to gain time, time to implement the necessary measures to increase resilience and thus support sustainable growth. However, there is only a limited role for demand-side policies. Fiscal space is limited and monetary policy cannot carry the burden of the adjustment alone. For the euro area to become more resilient and sustain stronger growth, national governments need to bring about further structural change 1. Work in this regard has already started, and the reform wave of the countries hardest hit by the crisis is showing some initial results, such as a GDP recovery related to comprehensive labour market reforms. Other reforms, mainly on product markets, are expected to bring about GDP gains, but they need to be implemented in full.

Among these reforms I believe that particular attention needs to be given to all legal, administrative and bureaucratic impediments that can lead to an increase of the overall costs for debt workouts, make the distinction between viable and non-viable firms more difficult, and hamper firms’ exit from and entry to markets as well as investment. In concrete terms, this means improving the efficiency of insolvency regimes. In corporate debt restructuring, experience to date shows that an effective insolvency regime is critical to facilitate the early rescue of viable firms and the speedy exit of non-viable ones. IMF analysis also shows that weak debt enforcement and ineffective insolvency frameworks tend to lower the recovery values of problem loans 3. Our internal analysis finds that in order to be able to cope with high private debt ratios and to deleverage reasonably quickly, the strength of the insolvency framework is important. Also, recent analysis from the European Commission found evidence that in the presence of a high stock of private debt, the quality of insolvency frameworks is important for financial stability and for spurring entrepreneurship and thereby mitigating the impact of deleveraging on growth. In particular, it was found that a good insolvency framework is associated with speedier adjustment of non-performing loan ratios. 4  2  See OECD, “Economic Policy Reforms 2015: Going for Growth”, 2015.
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Modern central banks have to have open communication with the public Address by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, at the at the Journalist Workshop - 2019, organized by the NBRNM, Skopje, 27 December 2019. * * * Distinguished media representatives,  It is my honor and pleasure to welcome you at the beginning of our fifth workshop dedicated to you, journalists and the media. As a central bank, we are constantly investing in new ways and forms of public communication. But you – the seventh power in modern society, are the key link in the process of communicating our views to the general public, which is extremely important, given its heterogeneity. We all differ, we belong to different educational profiles and age groups, we have different interests and attitudes about risk, we respond differently to certain changes in the economy. Through your informative and research articles, you enable our analysis and data to be not only accessible but also understandable to more target groups. For us, this is very important, especially because as a central bank, we have an increasingly active role in both financial education and fostering financial inclusion. In modern times, communication with the public is actually part of the central banks’ set of instruments.

For instance, among the many findings in the report released by the Senior Supervisors Group is that firms which weathered the recent crisis better have senior management members who have expertise in a range of risks. This underscores the need to attract and develop talent not only in the frontline, but across critical functions and at various levels of the organisation. Financial institutions planning to expand must treat talent development as a strategic priority, and such development has to be undertaken in a holistic way, across the entire organisation. But this is not an easy task. There is a Chinese saying that it takes ten years to grow a tree, and a hundred years to develop an individual. Talent development requires consistent focus and commitment, from leaders at all levels of the organization. The efforts need to be sustained over many years, through good times and difficult times. The demographic changes in Asia coupled with rapid growth in the economies will make this task even more challenging in the coming years. Building a world class financial sector workforce IBF is committed to working with the industry to drive the development of talent in the financial sector. Let me now turn to some of the key initiatives undertaken in the last twelve months. Last year, we focused on increasing the industry’s adoption of the Financial Industry Competency Standards (FICS). The FICS is a comprehensive framework for continual development of our financial professionals. We reached an important milestone in July 2007 with the appointment of 5 lead providers.
With China now a member of the WTO, the global labour force expanded considerably. Low wages and cheap goods from China exerted downward pressure on goods prices. As China’s substantial savings surplus continued to grow, large amounts of savings were exported to the West. Inflation slowed in the decade following the turn of the millennium, in spite of high growth and falling unemployment. Combined with China’s savings surplus, this resulted in persistently low interest rates. Low interest rates coincided with weaker regulation of the banking and financial sectors, particularly in the US, but also in Europe. That proved to be a dangerous cocktail. Banks took more risk and levels of equity capital were too low. Household debt rose substantially. In many European countries, government debt ballooned in the shadow of low interest rates. When the crisis erupted in 2008, many were ill-prepared. 1  Chap. 8 and 9 in Lie, Einar and Christian Venneslan (2010), Over Evne: Finansdepartementet 1965 – 1992, Pax, Oslo (Norwegian only). 2  The expression “counterstructural policy” was used by Hermod Skånland in autumn 1977 when he wrote “The countercyclical policy conducted in Norway has to some extent also become a counterstructural policy”. Skånland (1977): “Konjunkturperspektiver og norsk næringsliv” in Sosialøkonomen 10/1977, p.10 (Norwegian only). 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Two aftershocks – China and Europe The global economy is still struggling with the repercussions of the crisis, with record-low interest rates and overcapacity. Growth is low.

Crises can and should be curbed, using measures to strengthen the economy’s immune system as well as measures that reduce the impact once the crisis has erupted. This means that government intervention using public funds may be the right approach in a situation of decline and deflation, low interest rates, high unemployment and pessimism. But crisis-related measures must also be focused on the deeper causes of the crisis in order to strengthen economic sustainability over time. Countercyclical policy must not become counterstructural policy. Crises are not necessarily just an evil. A crisis can lead to reforms and measures that foster progress, as it did in Norway in the 1990s. The regulation of the banking sector in the wake of the global financial crisis is another example. Experiences such as these may give us some comfort in the bleakest of times. The world will go on, even after a deep crisis. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
Strategic priorities to further develop the financial advisory industry The Bank has identified a number of strategic priorities to further develop the full potential of the financial advisory industry in delivering better outcomes to consumers and increasing the level of insurance penetration in Malaysia. I should say that we benefitted significantly from our engagements with the industry on the direction that we intend to take and the key issues that need to be addressed moving forward. Today, let me mention four key priorities. Our first priority is to ensure that financial advisers are highly competent and professional when they provide advice. We understand from our engagements with AFA that recruiting the right talent continues to be a major challenge given that financial advisory firms are competing with larger financial institutions for a limited pool of qualified individuals. The Bank will continue to work in close collaboration with AFA to increase the talent pool. This includes reviewing on a regular basis, the programmes and qualifications that meet the minimum standards for financial advisors and working with academia, training providers and accreditation bodies to broaden the qualifications recognized without compromising on quality. There is also a need to lift the competency requirements for financial advisers. The current emphasis has been largely on ensuring that financial advisers have sound product knowledge and the core competencies to understand and analyse their client’s needs.

The song “Roll out the Barrel” was written by the Czech composer Jaromir Vejvoda, and the New World Symphony was composed by the world famous Czech composer Antonín Dvořák. So you can find at least some Czech marks in many areas of everyday life. How about my domain, finance? Well at least one thing originates in this country. You sometimes pay with US dollars, or Canadian dollars or Australian dollars for that matter, so you should know that the name dollar comes from the original Czech name tolar – TOLAR – which was a small silver coin minted in Western Bohemia in the 16th century. Now it is world famous. And while I am talking about the traces left by the Czech language, I should not forget that there is at least one Czech word which has spread from my very complicated mother tongue to almost all languages. That word is robot – the invention of Czech writer Karel Čapek. It comes from the Czech word “robota”, which means unfree and unpaid labour, or corvée in English. Ladies and gentlemen, I can only hope that I have succeeded in convincing you that this is a country with a long track record in many areas and that it is not a waste of your time to explore its history, beauties and treasures, be it here in Prague or elsewhere. I’d say you might find many other surprises as well. I wish you every success with your conference. Enjoy it, enjoy Prague and enjoy the Czech republic.