samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This is the pathology I worry most about. So I ask: Can my colleagues and I at the Fed cure this with monetary policy? Obviously, businesses cannot create jobs without the means for investing in job-creating expansion, so, yes, monetary policy is necessary to propel job creation. But as I have shown you tonight, the store of bank reserves awaiting discharge into the economy through our banking system is vast, yet it lies fallow. Take a look at this chart of total reserves of depository institutions: They have ballooned from a precrisis level of $ billion to $ trillion. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  There is plenty of money available for businesses to work with. Consider this: In fourth quarter 2007 the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) was $ trillion; at year-end 2013 it was estimated to be $ trillion. Had we continued on the path we were on before the crisis, real GDP would currently be roughly $ trillion in size. That’s a third larger than it was in 2007. Yet the amount of money lying fallow in the banking system is 60 times greater now than it was at year-end 2007. One is hard pressed to argue that there is insufficient money available for businesses to put people back to work. Now, bear in mind that we at the Fed only control the monetary base (cash plus bank reserves), not the velocity with which money is used.

This way of organizing regulation will be an even bigger challenge when new regulation designed to hinder the build-up of systemic risk is introduced, since a host country and the home countries of banks operating in the host country may be in different stages of the business cycle. Output gap in the Nordic countries  This is illustrated in this chart showing output gaps in the Nordic countries. Today most economies are closely integrated with other economies, both through trade and through  8  BIS Review 113/2010  financial markets. Still there may be significant differences both in the timing (and amplitude) of peaks and troughs in the business cycle and in the functioning of financial markets. Asymmetries between countries mean that the appropriate regulatory parameters to dampen systemic risk will not necessarily be the same for all countries at the same time. To be effective, regulatory parameters, for instance those calibrated to ensure the buildup of countercyclical buffers, need to encompass all banks operating in the same jurisdiction, as put forward in the July 2010 BIS proposal. Finally, I will say a few words on crisis resolution. Resolution actions taken in one country in response to a crisis can have effects on banks in other countries that do not choose to introduce the same resolution actions. For instance, issuance of government guarantees in one country can weaken banks in neighboring countries without such guarantees (since government guarantees provide an incentive to move deposits to banks in these countries).
We can note that the real repo rate is presently below zero, and according to the Riksbank’s forecast it is not expected to be above zero until the end of this year. If the forecast proves correct, the real repo rate will have been negative for a two-year period – this is very unusual in an historical perspective. The Riksbank’s assessment is that a long-term normal level for the real repo rate is around 2 per cent. 9 Seen from this perspective, the repo rate path thus indicates a very expansionary monetary policy. We have previously seen that in April the market was expecting a lower nominal repo rate in relation to the Riksbank’s forecast. Figure 6 shows that this also appeared to apply to the real repo rate. Figure 6 The Riksbank’s real repo rate forecast Per cent  Note. See footnote 8 for a description of the calculation of the real repo rate expectations. Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank. 8  The real repo rate forecast is calculated as a mean value of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecast for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Prospera’s interest rate and inflation expectations are based on surveys carried out on 28 April and 28 April–7 May respectively. Interpolation has been used for the interest rate and inflation expectations to produce the expected repo rate for the coming year and inflation expectations for the corresponding period.

8  BIS Review 34/2002  Chart 1: average committee scores over time1  A ve rag e s core 80 70  Tre nd  60 50  Score  40 30 20  In d iv id u a l games  10  In d iv id u a l games  C o m m it t e e games  0 0  1  2  3  4  5  6 7 8 9 10 G a m e Nu m b e r  11  12  13  14  15  16  1  Players are scored according to their ability to keep inflation close to a pre-specified target and to minimise output fluctuations across each of the sixteen, ten period games. The Chart shows the evolution of scores over time: • For the individual games, numbers 1-4 and 13-16, each diamond represents the mean individual score across the 170 participants. • For the committee games, numbers 5-12, the diamonds represent the mean score across the 34 committees. In these stages, the five members of the committee vote in each period and the ‘majority’ - or more precisely - the median interest rate is set. Each committee is then scored according to this median outcome.
It had an impact on the UK through a number of different channels – global financial markets, the financial health of our banks and other financial institutions, world trade and economic activity, and through business and consumer confidence. Because the shock was much bigger than earlier shocks the MPC had faced, the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  policy response was more dramatic, featuring deep cuts in interest rates and direct injections of money into the economy through Quantitative Easing. In my view, this was entirely right and appropriate given the risks of a deepening recession and deflationary pressures. Chart 4 Strong emerging market growth to continue Annual percentage growth rates of real GDP 10  Advanced Economies *  8  Emerging & Developing Economies *  6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  2012  *: 2011 and 2012 growth rates are IMF forecasts. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook  However, the trends in the global economy have now turned around. As Chart 4 shows, global growth in both the advanced economies and emerging and developing market economies – dominated by Asia – has recovered to rates very similar to our experience before the recession. And the upward pressure on global energy and commodity prices we saw before the recession have resumed.

In economies across the world, new issuance of corporate debt and listing of new companies came to a halt, posing an enormous challenge for the banking channel to sustain economic activities: as we have seen, in many cases that challenge was insurmountable. At the same time, the financial crisis grew to such exceptional proportions that governments worldwide had to implement a series of rescue measures of a kind never seen before, using public money to bail out the banking system. In a globalised world, it would be complacent to say that Hong Kong will continue to be less affected than their counterparts in Europe and the US: it is likely that the falling prices of financial assets, the economic downturn and other unfavourable factors will inevitably affect banks' asset quality and drive up the ratio of nonperforming loans. Nevertheless, it is also true that Hong Kong has entered this crisis in a position of strength and should be able to weather it relatively well. Despite the complex and stressful financial environment, the fundamentals of the banking sector in Hong Kong has remained strong and sound. The local banking sector here is well capitalised, at 13.8%, with a strong liquidity position averaging 45% in the fourth quarter of last year. The asset quality of retail banks is also high by historical standards, with preliminary figures showing overall non-performing loan ratio edging marginally from below 1% before the global financial crisis to just above 1% at the end of 2008.
Source: Average values by estimates of Chinn (1998), Goldstein (1998), Tornell (1998) and Berg and Pattillo (1998). BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  Chart 15 Current account balances in East Asia and the euro area East Asia (1996) – Euro area (1999)  Note: % of GDP. Source: Haver Analytics. Chart 16 Fiscal costs of recapitalisation as % of GDP  Note: high scenario. Source: IMF (1999). 16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 17 Argentina public sector debt as % of GDP  Share of foreign currency denominated debt in 2001: 97.59% Source: Haver Analytics. Chart 18 Exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD for selected emerging Asia countries  Note: 02/01/1997=100. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors. BIS central bankers’ speeches  17

Touching briefly on the stock market, equity trading in Iceland has risen very rapidly in recent years, as has the number of publicly listed companies and their total market capitalisation. Among other things, the depth of the market is increasing because of the incorporation and privatisation of public enterprises, including the banks. The laws and regulations pertaining to the stock market, including disclosure requirements, are similar to those in other European countries. The conduct of monetary policy Turning more specifically to the Central Bank of Iceland and the conduct of monetary policy, the current legislation stipulates many goals for the Bank. With the liberalisation of financial markets and the opening up of the capital account, as well as with international developments towards greater independence for central banks and simplified policy targets, the main target of the Central Bank of Iceland has gradually become that of maintaining a low rate of inflation. The Bank has also gained greater independence than is strictly provided for in the current law, which it has achieved with the tacit approval of the Government, but partly in agreements on specific aspects. In my view, this is important for enhancing the credibility of monetary policy and the Central Bank. Credibility is very fragile and it takes strong effort and careful policy and policy implementation to enhance and maintain it. Another objective of the Central Bank is to monitor the stability of the financial system.
A key initiative in this regard is the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), a health check-up of national financial sectors made in collaboration with the World Bank. Switzerland volunteered to undergo such a check-up in 2002. Once more, it was a useful and gratifying experience to interact with outside experts. And the reason I am saying this has nothing to do with the fact that the Swiss financial center came out of this surveillance exercise with very high marks. 3. Financial crisis resolution  Let me now turn to the second part of my presentation, the Fund’s role in crisis resolution. Here I have no direct Swiss experience to report on since my country, fortunately, never had to resort to financial support from the Fund. I will therefore speak from the perspective of a medium-size shareholder that believes that financial crises are market failures with potential systemic risks and that the Fund can and should play an important role in resolving them. The nature, scale and spread of financial crises have changed dramatically since the Tequila turmoil in Mexico in 1994. Financial integration and capital account liberalization brought about a huge increase in financial flows. Emerging economies did benefit from this new reallocation of international savings and some staggering economic results were obtained (annual GDP growth between 1986 and 1996 for countries in South-East Asia averaged close to 8 percent). However, the new financial setting also made emerging countries particularly vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Potential for new linkages and opportunities between Japan and Malaysia Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the Malaysia-Japan Business Forum "Enhancing New Linkages And Opportunities", Kuala Lumpur, 24 August 2007. *  *  *  It is my honour and great pleasure to be here to speak at this important forum which brings together government leaders and the business community from our two countries. I would like to take the opportunity to thank the Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO) for inviting me to speak at this Forum. JETRO has played an important role in fostering the economic relations between Malaysia and Japan. While Japan and Malaysia has established strong economic ties, the environment in which we are operating has experienced pronounced changes. These changes present the potential for new linkages and opportunities between Japan and Malaysia. Enhancing interlinkages and integration in Asia Asia today is increasingly recognised as a dynamic growth region in the global economy. Asia's previous success was accomplished in part by strengthening its global interlinkages by exports to the rest of the world. Today, new regional interlinkages are emerging as Asia expands further its trade and investment within the region, a trend that has generated mutually reinforcing regional growth. The Asian economic integration is now already well advanced through the intensification of intra-regional trade and investment. Trade within Asia now accounts for more than half of the total trade of the region.
Eva Srejber: Price stability and growth in Sweden  Speech by Ms Eva Srejber, Second Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, in Malmö, on 4 September 2000. *  *  *  Sweden is now entering its third year with growth of over 3%. This year, GDP is expected to increase by over 4% and our assessments indicate continued annual growth rates averaging over 3% for the next two years. Despite the strength of the economy, inflation is low. Why doesn’t inflation rise more? What balances do we have to strike as monetary policy decisionmakers? These are the issues that I want to give my view on in today’s speech. Monetary policy strategy I would like to start by drawing attention to what guides us when we make monetary policy decisions, ie how we have formulated the monetary policy strategy. The new Riksbank Act, that came into force on 1 January 1999, confirmed by law that the objective of monetary policy is price stability. This objective was formulated in 1993 as an inflation target, where CPI is to total 2% with a tolerance interval of plus/minus one percentage point. One reason for adopting CPI was because it is well-known and measures the prices consumers encounter for a large part of their consumption. Two per cent was chosen, among other reasons, because it was considered to be at a good European level at that time.

While the financial economy is in principle only a reflection of the real economy and vice versa, changes can take place as to which component is in the driving seat. A well-developed analysis of both sides would probably improve the basis for decision-making in monetary policy. Structural changes in the financial markets make it difficult to interpret developments and to find stable correlations between, for instance, the quantity of money and inflation, although this is true for many parts of the economy. It BIS Review 72/2000  2  applies, for instance, to methods for estimating such central variables as how many unused resources there are in the economy and how great the potential growth can be. Different methods then produce different results. The ECB is an example of a central bank that builds up its analysis from the real side and from the financial side - monetary policy rests on two pillars. There are partly historical reasons for monetary policy strategy being conducted in this way. Their strategy is perhaps not the best way to take financial trends into consideration. The risk with such a clear division is that the fact that it is actually about mirror images is disregarded and that the consistency between the real and financial analysis is lost. The advantage is that financial trends can clearly be taken into consideration when monetary policy decisions are made. In the second place, we can make different appraisals of the risk picture for the price trend during the forecast period.
It is not optimal to pre-commit to any specific interest rate path, much less so in the current highly uncertain context. We will act with total flexibility and adopt the measures needed to fulfil our mandate and contribute to safeguarding financial stability. Along the path to a more neutral interest rate configuration, flexibility is particularly important to preventing the emergence of threats to the correct transmission of monetary policy throughout the euro area. The pandemic has shown that, under stressed conditions, flexibility in asset purchases helps to effectively counter these threats. Within our mandate, this flexibility will remain a key element of our monetary policy. In step with the communication of this process of monetary policy normalisation, market expectations of policy rate hikes have been brought forward since December. The prospect of a normalisation of the monetary policy stance has likewise been reflected in an upturn in short and long-term interest rates in the euro area. Specifically, the 10-year OIS rate, which proxies the euro area risk-free interest rate, has risen by about 133 basis points (bp) since the beginning of the year, while the 12-month EURIBOR has increased by 85 bp. Meanwhile, the risk premium on Spanish government debt increased by 34 bp in this period. European policies European policies are playing an increasingly important role in contending with common shocks to the European Union (EU) economies as a whole. This was thrown into relief when the pandemic broke out and NGEU was launched, among other measures.

This translates to at least 6,000–7,000 new jobs for the financial industry annually. We should come together to invest in adding to the talent pool here, and avoid unproductive poaching from within the industry. MAS and IBF will continue to work with the industry to see how we can extend more competency-based skills training to new entrants joining the industry. More than any other industry perhaps, the financial industry depends on talent. Identifying, nurturing, and developing talent must therefore be the number one priority of every financial industry CEO. IBF has been organising these Annual Conferences – to bring together industry leaders to deliberate on how we can do better in building talent for the industry. Today's Conference will focus on leadership development – how we can build a robust pipeline of leaders in our organisations and develop our talent base. I wish you a fruitful session ahead and I look forward to your continuous partnership in our common journey of learning and growing in the year ahead. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
The general improvement in the availability of foreign exchange necessitated the Bank of Zambia’s participation in the market. In this regard, the Bank recorded a net purchase of US $ million compared with net purchase or sale of US $ million in the third quarter. Balance of payments 35. Preliminary data show that Zambia recorded an overall balance of payments (BoP) deficit of US $ million during the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to the surplus of US $ million recorded in the third quarter of the year. This was largely due to the unfavourable performance in both the current account balance and the capital and financial account. 36. During the period under review, the current account surplus declined to US $ million from US $ million recorded the previous quarter, largely on account of a decline in the merchandise trade surplus and widening of the net income deficit. 37. The merchandise trade surplus declined by 9.2% to US $ million in the fourth quarter of 2010, from US $ million recorded in the third quarter, following an increase in imports, which outweighed the rise in exports. Merchandise export earnings, rose by 5.2% to US $ million from US $ million recorded in the previous quarter. This was due to an increase in metal exports earnings by 7.3% to US $ million from US $ million in the previous quarter. 38.

There are also a wide range of investment and treasury instruments, as well as fund and wealth management products for the management of portfolios of businesses. In terms of takaful, there is also a broad range of products, including takaful coverage for physical properties and assets of businesses, as well as protection for employees. The growing significance of the international dimension of Islamic finance in this recent decade has witnessed its increasing role in bridging economies through the mobilisation and channelling of funds to productive investment activities across borders. Despite the challenging global environment and the increased uncertainties, the Islamic finance industry has continued to experience the double digit growth of 21 percent, and total Shariahcompliant assets have surpassed the USD1 trillion mark. There are now more than 600 Islamic financial institutions operating in more than 75 countries in both Muslim and nonMuslim jurisdictions. The emergence of new financial centres in Asia and the Middle East and their increased connectivity has strengthened the foundations for intra- and inter-regional linkages in trade and investments. More recently, Islamic finance is also being introduced in the EU region. The establishment of Islamic finance in key financial centres, namely London and Luxembourg, presents opportunities for businesses in the EU to raise funds using Islamic financial instruments such as the sukuk, and to diversify investment portfolios with Islamic fund and wealth management products. The development of Islamic finance has also been initiated in several other European economies.