samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Judging from the monetary indicators of these recent years, we notice that Lek supply (M2 growth) in the internal market has been declining due to the lack of government’s privatization incomes, which the Bank of Albania converted in Lek by injecting liquidity in the market. The reduced Lek supplies, together with its increased demand (due to the high interests rates of financial assets in Lek during 2003), have been exercising pressures on the Lek appreciation during 2003. 1  4  Foreign sector forecasts belong to June 2003. BIS Review 8/2004  3. Main suppositions of the monetary program of the Bank of Albania for 2004  In designing the monetary program for 2004 particular attention was given to the Bank of Albania’s target, that is keeping up the annual inflation rate within the limits of 2-4 percent. In hitting this target, the monetary program aims the control of money supply growth so that the level of real monetary assets responds to the real needs of the economy for a 6 percent economic growth. The economy demand forecast does still rely on the quasi-constant velocity forecast of money circulation. This forecast, judging from the nominal GDP level, is the bridging gap between inflation and money supply growth (intermediate objective). The monetary program guarantees the observance of quantitative objectives set by the Bank of Albania, the level of NDA and NIR of the Bank of Albania within the limits and the control of government’s domestic borrowing at the level of 2.7 of the GDP.

These benchmarks have always shown that the SNB’s portfolio management achieves good results in the long term and works cost effectively. The investment process is concluded with the fifth step, risk control. The risk control function checks compliance with guidelines and limits, and conducts a performance measurement. Furthermore, the relevant financial risks are identified, assessed and monitored on a daily basis. In addition, regular sensitivity analyses and stress tests are conducted and the results are reported to the Governing Board and the Bank Council’s Risk Committee. Organisationally, the investment process and risk control are separated from one another to the greatest possible extent. In this way, we ensure effective risk control. Monetary policy takes precedence over investment policy It is true that the structure of the SNB’s investment and risk processes is similar to that of large commercial asset managers. And yet there are also enormous differences. After all, the SNB is a central bank; for us, monetary policy objectives always take precedence over investment policy. When investing our foreign exchange reserves, we base our decisions on the criteria of security, liquidity and return. The weightings given to these criteria are derived from the monetary policy function of the foreign exchange reserves. Ensuring room for manoeuvre in the implementation of monetary policy requires, in particular, a high weighting for the liquidity criterion. As is common practice for a central bank, we invest a substantial share of our foreign exchange reserves in very liquid and highly rated foreign government bonds.
Obviously, markets are responding in a short-term  BIS Review 40/2007  1  manner, as a function of current interest differentials or of expected changes in these differentials, without fully recognising the existing economic fundamentals or fearing the possibility of sudden adjustments in exchange rates. Inevitably, this speculative attitude is risky. History has shown us that reversals on foreign exchange markets often take people by surprise, that periods of strength in the Swiss franc may alternate with periods of weakness, and that the Swiss franc has a tendency to react excessively in times of uncertainty. Therefore, caution is called for. Our exporters need to retain control of their exchange risks even at times of low volatility. After all, nobody would think of doing without fire insurance just because their house had been spared for a number of years. Domestic demand on the right path Inevitably, the strong momentum of foreign trade has spilled over into investment and domestic consumption, and especially into employment. Initially, an improvement in equipment investment and employment results from an increasing level of capacity utilisation. Thus, in manufacturing, the rate of capacity utilisation has been rising steadily since 2002 and has now reached a historical high. The corporate sector, which in 2005 was still hesitant about the soundness of the recovery, held a more favourable view last year. As a result, companies considerably stepped up their investment plans for equipment. At the same time, they created jobs – in particular full-time positions – at a faster rate.

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In the first quarter of 2013, the global economy was weaker than expected. The recession continued in the euro area. In the US, the recovery remained hesitant and in China, economic activity lost strength. In Switzerland, real GDP rose significantly in the first quarter. However, we expect a perceptible weakening in growth for the second quarter. Overall, we still anticipate growth of 1.0–1.5% for 2013. The risks for the Swiss economy remain high. They continue to originate, for the most part, from the international environment. A weakening in global economic momentum cannot be excluded. Further developments in the euro area financial and sovereign debt crisis remain uncertain. Tensions can reappear at any moment on global financial markets. Domestically, there is a risk that the imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets will grow, given the sustained period of exceptionally low interest rates. Global economic outlook I would now like to outline the outlook for the global economy and Switzerland in more detail. I will then look at monetary and financial conditions and the SNB’s monetary policy. In the first quarter, the growth of the global economy was weaker than expected, across the board. In many emerging markets, particularly China, economic activity lost strength. In the euro area, the recession continued, and in the US, the recovery remained hesitant. The only advanced economy to gain significant momentum was Japan. However, in the quarters ahead, global growth is likely to firm up gradually.

Thomas Jordan: Challenging economic and financial conditions for the Swiss banking sector Introductory remarks by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the media news conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 20 June 2013. *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. The Swiss franc is still high. An appreciation of the Swiss franc would compromise price stability and would have serious consequences for the Swiss economy. In the current environment, the minimum exchange rate remains important in order to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions for Switzerland in the event of sudden upward pressure on the Swiss franc. We stand ready to enforce the minimum exchange rate, if necessary, by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, and to take further measures, as required. The target range for the three-month Libor will be left unchanged at 0.0–0.25%. Since March, the SNB’s conditional inflation forecast has remained almost unchanged, apart from inflation for the current year, which is slightly lower due to a reduction in the oil price. The forecast is again based on an unchanged three-month Libor of 0.0% over the next three years. For 2013, we now anticipate slightly lower inflation of –0.3%. For 2014, the inflation forecast is unchanged at 0.2% and for 2015 at 0.7%. Consequently, inflation in Switzerland will remain very low in the foreseeable future.
I feel strongly that we should leverage our competitive advantage as the key producer to ensure the success of our futures market. Our main producers should be able to play an active role in the determination of the world prices – that is; AFET prices should be used as the world’s benchmark. I believe we are well-placed to achieve that goal. Ladies and Gentlemen, Now it is time to channel our energy and effort into making AFET a successful futures market for agricultural products, especially in the international arena. The next key question then is “How”? This task is indeed a challenge and if we all agree on this part, I think the best approach is for us to focus on one product at a time. I propose that AFET conduct an in-depth study into each of the products currently listed on the exchange and evaluate their chances of success. AFET can then prioritise whether they should first concentrate on smoked rubber sheet, block rubber, tapioca starch or white rice. Commodity Trading normally involves reference prices based on a certain futures exchange. For instance, market participants prefer to use futures prices from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange as a reference for white sugar while benchmark prices for rubber products are currently determined in the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and Singapore Commodity  BIS Review 14/2006  1  Exchange. It is worth noting that there are no well-established reference prices for white rice just yet.

The agreement for a minimum corporate tax rate for multinational enterprises, spurred by the G20 with the OECD’s invaluable support and ratified by more than 130 countries that account for more the 90% of world GDP, is a good example of the benefits that international cooperation can generate in the digital era. Furthermore, supply issues, which have led to shortages and strains on prices during both the pandemic and now the war in Ukraine, strengthen the case for boosting international cooperation. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund concluded that these supply issues should not lead us to lessen our economic openness. On the contrary, its analyses point to the international diversification of imports and improved substitutability of the sources of inputs from different countries to boost value chains’ resilience. Signing new bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and strengthening pre-existing ones, which would afford greater certainty to trade relations while reducing their cost, would also help attain this goal. To conclude, I believe that, by sharing experiences and outlooks, fora such as this one help gain a deeper understanding of the challenges that we, the economic and monetary authorities, must face. I hope that you are able to benefit fully from the discussions held over the coming days and wish you a pleasant stay in Seville. 2
Jean-Pierre Roth: The Swiss National Bank’s new inflation forecast Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the end-of-year media news conference, Zurich, 16 December 2004. *  *  *  Economic growth in Switzerland has lost some of its momentum. For this year, however, we still anticipate economic growth to be close to 2%. In the coming year, we expect the economy to expand by 1.5% to 2%. On the assumption that the three-month Libor rate will remain unchanged at 0.75%, we expect an annual inflation rate of 1.1% in 2005 and 1.3% in 2006. Less dynamic growth, the weaker US dollar and the decline in excess liquidity have dampened the anticipated inflationary pressure somewhat. The target range for the three-month Libor rate will therefore be left unchanged at 0.25-1.25% and the rate will again be kept in the middle of the range. The National Bank’s monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect. Should unexpected developments push up the Swiss franc sharply, we will take appropriate action. Allow me to explain our decision. It is based on the outlook for price developments in the coming three years as summarised in our new inflation forecast. The graph depicts the current and the previous inflation forecasts. The dash-dotted green curve reflects the September forecast. Like the current forecast, it was based on the assumption of the three-month Libor rate remaining unchanged at 0.75% in the following three years.

We presume that oil prices will tend to go down. Consequently, inflationary pressure will subside somewhat, particularly towards the end of 2005. With an unchanged monetary policy, we are likely to see an inflation rate of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2006. 2. Continued recovery  In order to assess inflation in the medium term, economic prospects are paramount. During a phase of economic recovery, as we are currently experiencing, how rapidly the capacity utilisation rate increases is important from a monetary policy perspective. Even though GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2004 is likely to be lower than we projected in the September assessment, we expect the Swiss economy to expand by close to 2% this year. The upswing will continue next year. We anticipate a growth rate of 1.5% to 2% for the whole of 2005. The fact that the economy braved the oil price hike and the stronger franc is testimony to a robust recovery. There is less uncertainty now as to the inflation prospects for next year. Utilisation of economic resources, which is slowly increasing, will not lead to any additional pressure on prices in 2005. As can be gleaned from the new inflation forecast, improved capacity utilisation is likely to have an impact on price development only in the course of 2006. 1/3  The current inflation forecast for the medium term, ie for the coming two years, is characterised by a similar course to the one charted in September.
In the committee stages, the majority - or more precisely the median - vote was implemented once all committee members had entered a vote into their respective computers. Participants were told nothing at the start of the experiment about the structure of the economic model with which they were playing, or the disturbances that it was subject to, other than that a structural change occurred at some point during each play of the game. In short, they were operating - much like real-life monetary policy makers - in uncertain conditions, doing their best to identify the shocks that hit the economy and offsetting their impact by adjusting the short-term interest rate. To quantify their performance, players were scored according to their ability to keep inflation close to a pre-specified target and to minimise output fluctuations, and were paid a modest amount for doing so. Chart 1 shows the pattern of average scores over the different stages of the game. Three features are striking: (i)  The significant upward trend in the results. Players clearly learned how to play the game as time went on. (ii)  The large upward movement in scores when players moved to committee decision-making. (iii)  The large downward move in scores when participants returned to playing as individuals. These results support the idea that committee decisions represent a significant improvement over those of the individuals that comprise them. What might account for these results? The Blinder and Morgan and Bank studies suggest two main reasons.

The mandate: price stability The Eurosystem has been entrusted with a very clear mandate by the European treaties;1 its primary objective is to “maintain price stability”, in other words to avoid prolonged periods of excessive inflation – as seen in Germany after World Wars I and II – or deflation – seen following the crisis of 1929 –, which have consistently negative effects on the economy. Some observers still advocate a “dual mandate” to target both inflation and growth or full employment, as is the case with the US Federal Reserve, for example. This would have been politically unattainable given the traumatic history of inflation in some European countries. Besides, let me recall two elements: price stability is to be maintained “over the medium term”. As stressed inter alia by F. Smets, there is an “equivalence between the length of the policy horizon and the weight on output gap stabilisation”,2 and hence employment. as stated by the treaty, "without prejudice to the objective of price stability”, the Eurosystem should support “the general economic policies in the Union” Let me add that the more precise and focused the mandate, the more accountable the ECB can and must be. Yet, those who advocate a broader mandate are often the same people who quite inconsistently are quick to criticise the lack of accountability of the ECB. In 1998, the ECB established a quantitative definition of price stability that it went on to clarify in 2003: to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
About our external scenario, incoming data show improved performance of exports across sectors (figure 9). Still, examining numbers of the first half, we foresee that the export volumes will contract during the year. However, by 2018 they should recover thanks to improvements in the world economy, which coupled with better prices increase our estimated 5  trade balance for next year. The low comparison base due to the Escondida mine strike downtime early this year will also result in higher mining exports in 2018. Thus, in 2018, the current account deficit should be lower than we expected in September, close to 1% of GDP, similar to our 2017 projection. At trend prices, the current account deficit remains at 2.6% on average in 2017-2018 (table 1). Aside from the scenario I have just described for domestic activity and spending, the convergence of inflation to the target also considers a mild depreciation of the real exchange rate that will cause it to converge from where it was at the closing of this Report to its longterm equilibrium within the projection horizon. The baseline scenario also contemplates that the prices of foods, particularly fresh fruits and vegetables, will return to their normal patterns, so their annual inflation will be rising over the course of 2018. About monetary policy, the Board estimates that in the baseline scenario the surprises that have pulled inflation down below expectations do not compromise the convergence of inflation to the target.

This has prompted several emerging economies to restructure their fuel subsidies in an effort to create more efficient economies and to achieve more sustainable fiscal positions. This has been followed by the consequent adjustments in consumer prices as the gap between international market prices and domestic prices narrow. In Malaysia , petrol prices were adjusted by  BIS Review 90/2008  1  40.6% while diesel prices by 63.3%. This adjustment would be reflected in the consumer price inflation in June, which is expected to exceed 6%. Beginning 1 July, electricity tariffs have also been raised by up to 18% for households and an average of 26% for some commercial and industry users. While domestic inflation is expected to remain elevated for the remaining part of this year and early next year, it is expected to moderate in the second half of 2009. In the current international environment, the policy response needs to be contextualised to the conditions prevailing in each individual economy. In those economies that are experiencing overheating and strong demand conditions, there is greater clarity in terms of the need for policy to rein in demand. However, for economies that are experiencing moderating growth, the risks to growth and inflation need to be carefully evaluated. In addition, consideration needs to be given to the deflationary impact of the fuel price increases on consumption.
For these assessments, we consult our researchers and add critical information that we learn from listening to our boards of directors, regional advisory councils and community leaders, such as you and others I’ll meet on this visit. For example, last month members of our small business advisory council told us that for the first time in several years, employees were leaving for other jobs and that they would need to replace those who left for better opportunities elsewhere. The fact that some people with jobs felt confident enough to seek and take other job opportunities was another signal to us that the job market may be improving – although, to be sure, we read such signals cautiously. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  To help me gather more information about the region, yesterday, I had breakfast in Syracuse with business and community leaders at the Center for Economic Development. Then I met with the staff of PathStone, a community development organization, met faculty and students at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University and had lunch with university officials who manage the tech transfer process. In the afternoon, we drove to Skaneateles Falls to tour Welch Allyn, a manufacturer of medical diagnostic instruments. Dr. Julie Shimer is the president and CEO. Dr. Shimer was also recently appointed chair of the Empire State Development Corporation, and we talked about challenges and opportunities for economic development in New York State. After this morning’s gathering, I will speak with staff of the Empire Justice Center, meet with Lt.

Growth in public demand, stronger confidence in financial markets and low key rates are fuelling investment abroad. Even though the global economic situation now seems to have stabilised, there is still a risk of continued low growth for a fairly long period ahead. The severe downturn and fall in commodity prices has led to very low or negative consumer price inflation in many countries. Inflation is still moving down and is now negative in for instance the US, the euro area, Sweden, Japan and China. Core inflation is more stable, but has also shown a slight decline recently. The current low level of activity and high unemployment will also act as a brake on inflation in the period ahead. One characteristic of the crisis was the substantial increase in money market rates. Confidence between banks evaporated. Banks reacted by raising interest rates on loans to businesses and households. They started to turn off the lending tap. Measures implemented by central banks and governments have had a stabilising effect. The most important markets have also gradually become less disorderly, with less distrust among participants. The risk that issuers of credit will go bankrupt has diminished. Activity in money and bond markets has picked up and fluctuations are less pronounced. The situation in the interbank market has improved. The spread between money market rates and expected key rates, which is an indicator of risk premiums in the money market, has decreased. Money market premiums in Norway have also fallen. Equity markets have risen since early 2009.