samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Feldstein/Horioka coefficient skirted one for large parts of this period. The global financial system operated as anything but a system. Indeed, it was this which prompted Feldstein and Horioka in the early 1980s to present the “puzzle” of still-low levels of capital market integration. Yet at pretty much precisely the point this puzzle was being identified, it began to disappear. Correlations quickly moved from close to unity in the early 1980s to close to zero by the start of the 21st century. This was an astonishingly rapid evolution from a world close to financial autarky to one close to financial nirvana. In the light of the crisis, measured levels of global capital market integration have fallen somewhat. But they remain at higher levels than at any point in history. Overall, then, the picture is clear. For much of the 20th century, global finance was more patchwork than network. But the past thirty years have seen that picture change spectacularly. Today, global finance is a well-connected network, a tightly-woven and tangled web, a genuine system. The double-edged nature of financial integration So what are the implications of this increase in global financial integration? There have been large numbers of studies exploring the growth and welfare implications of these trends, using cross-country and time-series evidence (Rey (2013)). This evidence paints, at best, a mixed picture. While capital integration ought to enhance international risk-sharing, there is surprisingly little evidence of this having conferred macro-economic benefits – and some of it having imposed costs.

We must create a banking community that does not tolerate imprudent business practices and lax systems and control. These are the sins of the past. Thailand, for instance, is carefully fostering a new business culture with the right values. On our part, the Bank of Thailand has since March 2002 announced guidelines supporting the practice of good corporate governance of banks' Board and management to ensure that they look after the interests of their stakeholders in an effective manner. These rules are not ground-breaking; they are just simple common sense. But we need to communicate clearly to the private sector what our expectations are and what the consequences are if the efforts fail. Ladies and Gentlemen, The cost of financial restructuring in Thailand was, after all, too enormous in figures and too painful in real terms to allow us to continue with our old way. In addition to changing the corporate culture, we are also amending a few key laws to solidify the foundation of our financial infrastructure. The new Financial Institutions Businesses Act will empower banking authorities with the necessary power to supervise financial institutions on a consolidated basis and to take appropriate actions against weak banks, with the provisions of prompt corrective actions. The Deposit Insurance Act will support a deposit insurance system to limit the loss of public money and reduce the moral hazard inherent in the current guarantee system.
However, the data, or the explanations may not count if they do not reach the public and do not influence their decisions. According to some estimates, by 2025, 463 exabytes of data will be created each day globally. This means huge generation of data that can blur the official statistical information making it difficult for people to read and understand it. Obviously, to bring statistics closer to the public we need to place further focus on aspects such as putting numbers in perspective so that they can be easily understood by the wider public, language simplification, that sometimes is not an easy task for experts that are used to statistical taxonomy, segmentation of the audience (communicate not only to financial analysts and journalist, but to the broader audience, although through different channels), as well as creation of relatable content that considers what matters to the public and at the same time is educational and entertaining4. Along those lines, the National Bank, recognizing the importance of communication, engages in quite an array of activities. At the end, I feel that it is appropriate to conclude my address with the motto of the European Statistics Day 2021 "Statistics, a vaccine to protect democracy and combat the virus of disinformation". 1 "Survey of National Statistical Offices (NSOs) during COVID-19", World Bank and the  United Nations Statistical Division (UNSD), brief, July 6 2020.

2  BIS Review 137/2007  And finally the ongoing process of significant market correction which we experience since August should trigger a very deep and candid review in all the areas which have a substantial influence on the functioning of the global financial markets. This review process should concentrate on what could be done to promote financial stability and to diminish to the maximum extent possible the elements of procyclicality that may be inbuilt in a large number of fields. The financial stability forum, which has been set up by the G7, under the proposal of Hans Tietmeyer, to draw the lessons of the Asian crisis, is in an ideal position to identify the areas where appropriate improvements could be introduced. I encourage very strongly the Financial Stability Forum and all the Committees that are actively working at a global level, including the Basel Committee, to draw all the lessons of the present turbulences and to examine the situation without any complacency.
Benoît Cœuré: The known unknowns of central clearing Speech by Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the meeting on global economy and financial system, hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Initiative on Global Markets, Coral Gables, 29 March 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying slides can be found on the European Central Bank’s website I would like to thank Andreas Schönenberger for his contributions. I remain solely responsible for the opinions contained herein. Ladies and gentlemen, Today, I want to share some thoughts with you on central clearing. [slide 1] At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 leaders committed to have all standardised OTC derivatives contracts cleared through central counterparties (CCPs). The mandatory use of central clearing as a regulatory tool for mitigating systemic risk is a fairly new feature in financial market regulation. Central clearing definitely has the capacity to promote financial stability, provided it is appropriately used and any potential side effects are well understood and effectively mitigated. In that context, there are still a number of questions that we need to look at. Let me call them the “known unknowns” of central clearing.

The next stage in the Saudization policy is to increase the proportion of Saudis in the new jobs that are being created by our expanding economy. The government has recently launched a program to support small-and-medium-size enterprises which will also create employment opportunities for Saudis. The forthcoming stage of the Saudiization policy will focus on increasing the share of Saudis in new posts created by economic growth. The Government has recently launched a programme for supporting small and medium size companies, thereby, new jobs will be available for Saudis. There are also a number of challenges in deepening and broadening the financial sector with significant implications for the economy. These include the creation of a viable and vibrant mortgage industry, which would have significant impacts on housing, construction, durable goods and other ancillary sectors. Also, there are initiatives in place to establish sound insurance and leasing industries. These initiatives are also aimed at enlarging the institutional investors' base that can channel resources in developing a pool of expertise, professional skills and technical knowledge in the financial sector. I wish to conclude with the observation that Saudi Arabia's economy is currently undergoing through a stage of accelerated growth in all sectors of the economy at a level and pace unprecedented in the past. The Government is spearheading this dynamic growth with its avowed policy of structural reforms and liberalization in the economy, as evidenced by its success in attracting the private sector and foreign direct investment into primarily the non-oil sectors of the economy.
Among other things, the application of Basel III will entail an increase in the minimum level of core capital, which will rise from 2% to 4.5%, and the creation of a capital conservation buffer of 2.5%. Accordingly, banks must at all times maintain a level of high-quality capital of, at least, 7% of risk-weighted assets. In addition, there will be a countercyclical capital buffer of  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  up to 2.5%, which for the first time introduces a macroprudential component into the regulation of capital levels, whose ultimate aim is to smooth the fluctuations in credit over the course of the cycle. The new Basel III framework further includes other important additions. These include most notably the introduction of a leverage ratio in which assets will not be risk-weighted and the introduction, for the first time, of liquidity requirements. On one hand, the liquidity coverage ratio will require banks to hold a sufficient volume of liquid assets to withstand scenarios of tension. On the other, the introduction of a net stable funding ratio is envisaged, whose aim is to limit maturity mismatches. The new regulation envisages that these new standards, to which the changes in the definition of capital must be added, will be applied progressively, such that the transition period will finalise in 2019. The aim is to prevent the strengthening of banks’ solvency from being achieved at the expense of a reduction in the financing that banks provide to the economy as a whole.

Indeed, the current turmoil has underscored the importance of robust liquidity management by banks, as well as the need for supervisory approaches which keep pace with structural market developments. Many initiatives with a view to addressing issues and risks arising from the recent financial market turbulence that go into the right direction have already been launched, both at the international level, namely by the Financial Stability Forum, and at the EU level, with the ECOFIN agreeing to a roadmap for action by 2008, and also by the private sector. They must be pursued now with even stronger impetus. In this respect, co-ordination at the global level should be ensured. In closely interlinked financial markets, any policy measure should be agreed to and consistently applied at the international level. Fifth, in the same vein, there is a need to reflect carefully on the “originate-anddistribute” business model. The period ahead is likely to provide a first material test of changing banking business models and the increased reliance on secured funding. Although currently profitable and well capitalised, many banks will experience income and credit losses, which may trigger a re assessment by some of them of the suitability of the so-called originate-and-distribute business model. The current episode has also shown that the transfer of credit risk outside the banking sector may ultimately not be effective. This is related with reputational and other concerns, which induce banks to take credit risk back onto their balance sheets.
It is possible to assess these things with the aid of the so-called four-panel figures that I usually refer to at the monetary policy meetings, and which are included in the minutes of the meetings. These figures are central to monetary policy, as they make it possible to compare different repo-rate paths and to see what level of target fulfilment for inflation and unemployment they result in. I consider these figures very useful when choosing a repo-rate path, when justifying the choice of the repo-rate path and when evaluating monetary policy. In Figure 1 I summarise some possible policy choices at the monetary policy meeting in April. The figure is based on the assessment of the current situation and the economic outlook presented in the Monetary Policy Update (Sveriges Riksbank 2012c). 5 The figures show clearly that a lower repo-rate path entails better target fulfilment, with inflation closer to the target and unemployment closer to a long-run sustainable rate. At the monetary policy meeting in April I considered that the forecast for foreign policy rates presented in the Update was too high, and that a much lower forecast in line with implied forward rates was more realistic. I also considered that the forecast for euro area growth was too optimistic. As I illustrated with a further figure at the meeting, an even lower repo-rate path would then be needed to best stabilise inflation and unemployment.

This deviation gives an average unemployment rate of 7.3 per cent. The left-hand square corresponds to an average inflation that is on target, at 2 per cent, which gives an average unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent. The difference between these figures is thus 0.8 percentage points. For Sweden it thus appears that an average inflation rate 0.6 percentage points below the target has led to an 0.8 percentage points higher average unemployment rate over the past 15 years than would have been the case if average inflation has been on target. 16 This estimate appears fairly robust for various assumptions. If one, for example, uses CPIX and CPIF inflation (which on average have undershot the target by less than the CPI inflation) the estimated long-run Phillips curve becomes somewhat flatter and gives roughly the same increased average unemployment. The fact that average unemployment that is compatible with average inflation on target is so much lower than actual average unemployment also indicates that estimates of the long-run sustainable unemployment based on historical averages may have a significant upward bias. 16  A 95-per cent confidence interval for the increased average unemployment is limited by 0.8 ± 0.3 percentage points and thus lies between 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points. Alternative assumptions and sample periods give roughly the same or a larger increase in average unemployment. For details, see Svensson (2012).
The third point in developments in the Turkish economy is that tight fiscal policy and sound debt management brought substantial improvement to the debt dynamics, which was in the centre of concerns together with inflation four years ago. So, the gross public debt declined from 107.5 percent in 2001 to 74.6 percent by the second quarter of 2005. The Maastricht criterion on gross public debt may be met in the near future. These achievements on the macroeconomic front, the improvement in the debt dynamics and the positive outlook for growth have brought more resilience to shocks and contributed to financial stability. Volatility in the financial markets has decreased; maturities are now longer; derivatives markets finally begin to develop. 5  The World Bank. Own calculations. 3/8  6  Though it is essentially a political decision, the negotiations between the EU and Turkey would not have started at all if we had not made all these achievements. Distinguished participants, Turkey’s membership implies an expansion of the EU market. The Turkish economy is among the biggest 20 economies in the world. It is the largest economy in Eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Middle East, second in the Black Sea Basin and sixth among emerging market economies. Unlike most of the new member states at the start of negotiations, Turkey already has a functioning market economy, which is far advanced in meeting the economic chapters of the acquis communautaire.

In principle, by relating new information to our most recent forecast, market players are in a good position to form a picture of policy’s direction and we can see that when we compare their forecasts of the repo rate with our own. However, one should be aware that there is a risk that an unduly simple rule or decision-making model will oblige the central bank itself to disregard other relevant information. Monetary policy is not mechanics. For this reason we have elaborated our view in various respects. We have underscored that there are also grounds for considering the periods before as well as beyond the 1–2 year horizon on which we focus. Strictly speaking, it is a matter of optimising over all future time, including both inflation and output. For a long time now we have also declared that there are transitory factors we should disregard; more recently we noted that there can be grounds for weighing a prompt return to inflation’s targeted rate against the risk of avoidable fluctuations in output. Finally, we have said that departures from our simple rule may be warranted by problems with financial stability. What is important, however, is our ambition to provide a clear explanation and motivation for such departures. Given our ambitions in this field we would risk severe criticism if we were to do so without good arguments. I should also say that if our application of the rule would continuously be modified and altered, much of its communicative and educational value would be lost.
There is also scope to recycle capital by taking loans off the balance sheets of commercial banks and multilateral development banks and structuring them in a form that could be subscribed by institutional investors, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds. Several blended finance models have been piloted. But they need to be substantially scaled up to channel the extra $ trillion in financing needed for the net zero transition. Singapore is building a comprehensive ecosystem for green and transition finance to facilitate Asia’s net zero journey. We are building capabilities in environmental risk management in the financial sector through climate stress tests. We are providing grants to defray the costs of issuing green and sustainability-linked loans and bonds. We are supporting industry efforts to build the infrastructure for a liquid and transparent voluntary carbon credit market in Asia. 7/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  We are deploying technology to address data challenges, such as through an ESG registry to maintain provenance of green certifications and an ESG disclosure platform to allow listed companies to upload corporate sustainability data in a structured and efficient manner. SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLE The fifth and last key to achieving net zero: a sustainable lifestyle. While many of the changes necessary to mitigate climate change are in the realm of public policies, business practices, financial decisions, and technological advances, people will also need to make lifestyle adjustments.

According to an IPCC study, everyday behavioural changes by people which reduce demand for energy – such as adjusting temperature settings in buildings and reducing air travel – can cumulatively lead to substantial reductions in carbon emissions. People across the world are increasingly concerned about climate change and want to do something about it. Climate change is inspiring people to step up to a higher cause, to take collective action for the common good of our planet. Singaporeans too are becoming more environmentally conscious. According to a 2020 study by the Institute of Policy Studies, 61% of Singaporeans surveyed felt that protecting the environment should be prioritised even if it results in slower economic growth and some loss of jobs. More individuals are taking climate-friendly actions, motivated by a desire to preserve a liveable world for future generations. There are many things we can do as individuals to minimise our impact on the climate. We can do energy audits of our homes to identify ways to be more energy efficient. We can reduce food and plastic waste. We can become a zero-waste nation and a circular economy, where we use less resources and re-cycle resources. We can eat lower in the food chain and shift towards more plant-based protein. University of Oxford researchers have found that reducing meat and dairy products from our diet can help to shrink our carbon footprint from food by up to 73%. We can drive less and take public transport more.
In particular, we should set in place mechanisms for the monitoring of and individualised guidance for the unemployed, based on statistical profiling techniques targeting the unemployed and available vacancies. Possible changes in the sectoral structure of employment also advise reinforcing lifelong learning. It would also be desirable to retain the possibility of training contracts, with the greatest possible flexibility, for youths and firms. Finally, the current arrangements on hiring rebates should be reviewed and priority given to those aimed at the elderly and lesserskilled, with ongoing monitoring of their effectiveness. 4.3. Addressing the challenge of population ageing Population ageing is one of the biggest challenges the Spanish economy faces. Illustrating this is the foreseeable course of the dependency ratio, which currently stands at 29.5% and will increase by more than 25 pp in the next 25 years. The determinants include most notably one of the highest rates of life expectancy in the world and a very low fertility rate. This suggests it would be worth introducing measures promoting life-work balance, increasing support for families and offering more opportunities in the labour market, especially for young women with children. The latter are frequently economically affected to  7  a greater extent by the decision to become mothers. Further, migratory policy should be adapted to bring it better into line with labour market needs. Population ageing effects weigh down particularly on public finances.

The asset management industry continued to grow well last year, with assets under management posting a 9% increase to reach $ trillion. Singapore will introduce a new corporate and regulatory framework to encourage fund domiciliation in Singapore and build up fund administration capabilities. MAS is working closely with the private equity/venture capital (PE/VC) industry to see how we can enhance financing for growth-stage companies, both local and from around the region. PE/VC financing has been increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 30% over the last 5 years. In the Renminbi (RMB) market, we are expanding two-way flows between China and Singapore. Besides Suzhou and Tianjin, Singapore has established cross-border RMB initiatives with the rapidly growing city of Chongqing. Corporates in Chongqing that issue RMB bonds in Singapore can fully repatriate the proceeds raised for infrastructure and other development projects in western China. We are witnessing a healthy volume of transactions now. In foreign exchange trading, we are working on electronification of the market. Digitisation, competition, and consolidation are rapidly transforming the global foreign  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  exchange (FX) landscape. MAS’ focus is to position Singapore as Asia’s e-trading hub to build on our FX centre, which is already the largest in Asia. We are working with FIs and FX trading platforms to build relevant infrastructure such as matching and pricing engines that will anchor liquidity in our marketplace. In infrastructure finance, the focus now is on enabling capital recycling.