samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
7  I say “respond” but, as a broad generalisation, the Gold Standard allowed for no significant degree of monetary autonomy: there might be a number of explanations for the pro-cyclicality of real short-term interest rates but they were not, by and large, a matter of free choice of the central bank (Obstfeld et al (2005); for a recent and interesting discussion, see also Morys (2012)). My point is that, had there been a lower neutral real rate, the Gold Standard would have delivered a worse outcome in co-ordinated downturns because the lower bound may have been a constraint. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Perhaps the authorities of the time were just lucky not to have run into the zero lower bound. But I think this episode illustrates that even protracted declines in prices needn’t be especially costly if, for whatever reason, the appropriate real interest rate is relatively high. Sustained deflation more costly when interest rates close to the lower bound Clearly, we are not in the same position today. Cuts in interest rates after the financial crisis were crucial in preventing a much worse downturn. They depressed the real short rate, softening what might otherwise have been a steeper rise in the saving rate. Matching the decline in productivity and income growth (Chart 6), the resulting falls in household interest rates meant deleveraging could occur without a big jump in gross debt repayments 8.

Critical infrastructure such as transport, water, power and telecommunications systems are also likely to be affected. Nearly all aspects of the economy in every country are therefore potentially at risk because of the widespread dependence on a country’s core infrastructure. The unprecedented scope of the Year 2000 problem means that a critical aspect of the issue is the management challenge. Substantial management resources are needed to coordinate the efforts to assess, repair, and test affected systems prior to the fixed deadline of BIS Review 85/1998  -2-  January 1, 2000. At the Federal Reserve, for example, we have created a number of management positions within our organization that are focused exclusively on different aspects of our Year 2000 preparations. A final point that underscores the need for urgent and sustained action is the increasing focus on the issue by the media, by the public and by market observers such as the rating agencies. Over the course of 1999, the extent of Year 2000 preparations by financial organizations will become the subject of ever more intensive scrutiny. As supervisors, therefore, we must do all we can to support the efforts of market participants to address the problem effectively, and to build confidence among others that this is being accomplished. While we must make it clear that supervisors cannot solve the problem, we can help mobilize others to take the necessary steps.
Our regular press conferences where we inform you and the general public about current economic and financial conditions, as well as about our expectations, as you know, are based entirely on data. It is not always possible to put a detailed analytical focus on everything that is available and which we produce as data. But that’s why we live in the “era of Internet statistics". Let’s take for example the interest rate statistics available on our website. If analyzed in details, its granularity is very high, offering a great deal of information on the amount of interest on different types of deposit and credit products, which can be helpful for all of us to make a 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  personal financial decision based on information. As one of the bearers of our statistical system, we also observe the public’s need for new categories of statistical data and within our competencies we try to respond to that need. Among other things, we have introduced new data on payment card transactions, the monitoring of which will be discussed today. Over the past years, aware that traditional forms of data display are no longer the most appropriate way of disseminating data, with the support of the European Union we have created a modern statistical web portal “NBStat". According to multiple analyzes conducted in the central banking community, advanced web-based statistical web portals are the most upto-date statistical tool that disseminates data in the simplest, fastest and most detailed way.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Steps to strengthen the Swiss financial system Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the news conference, Bern, 16 October 2008. *  *  *  Pursuant to art. 5 of the Swiss National Bank Act (NBA), the SNB shall contribute to the development of our economy and the proper functioning of our monetary system. This is why the SNB has decided to extend a loan not exceeding USD 54 billion to the special purpose vehicle (SPV) set up to take over illiquid assets currently held by UBS. A similar offer has also been extended to the CS Group, which has refrained from making use of such a possibility. For the SNB, this operation is highly unusual, both with regard to its scope and the reasons for it. Scope of operation As to the scope of the operation, USD 54 billion is clearly a substantial amount for the National Bank. I would like to emphasise, however, that the loan amount is entirely guaranteed by the portfolio assigned by UBS, i.e. securities valued at USD 60 billion in the UBS balance sheet. Given the fact that in the past twelve months, UBS has made aggressive write-downs on its risky positions and that its portfolio is fairly diversified (it does not only consist of toxic assets), we feel that the risk of further losses on this portfolio is limited.
23  In an effort to control debt levels incurred during the war, the British government ran huge primary surpluses during the 1920s, averaging 7% of GDP, with all the social and industrial unrest that entailed. Yet ratios of government debt to GDP didn’t fall, remaining at over 160% of GDP throughout that decade. Just as rapid inflations can eat up debt so deflations can increase it. The short-lived reinstitution of the gold standard (it was then abandoned for good in 1931) was heavily criticised at the time by Keynes. 24 The question was only formally considered – and a return to the pre-war parity recommended – by the Cunliffe Committee in 1918. 18  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  18  Chart 13a: To the extent fiscal variables matter for inflation government demand more important than debt  Chart 13b: Debt higher in wars than in 1970s but residual monetary credibility may have contained inflation, bond yields  Average debt/GDP; changes in central government expenditure less interest payments over nominal GDP; and average inflation. Sources: Thomas and Dimsdale (2017), Mitchell (1988), Feinstein (1998), O'Donoghue et al (2004), ONS and Bank calculations. Average bond yields based on consols/ long-term bonds. Sources: Thomas and Dimsdale (2017), Capie and Webber (1985), Neal (1990), Klovland (1994), Feinstein (1998), O'Donoghue et al (2004), ONS, DMO, and Bank calculations.

Over time, and as long as inflation is on average in line with prior expectations, the change in the ratio of debt to GDP (b) is given by (r – g)b – d, where d is the primary deficit. This is stable – for given d it tends over time to revert to a steady state level (b* = (g-r)/d) – only if the term multiplying b is negative, i.e. g > r. With risk-free real interest rates comfortably below zero in developed economies this condition seems to be fulfilled at the moment, though that’s not always been the case. When r > g the debt ratio is no longer stable – unless d changes accordingly, small changes in r or g would put b on an unstable path. For more on the implications of g > r see Blanchard (2019) and Mehrotra and Sergeyev (2019). 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  12  The blue line in Chart 8 depicts the results of a stylised experiment in which inflation rises permanently, and without any warning, by 1  Chart 8: Surprise inflations can reduce public sector debt though when g > r the effect is ultimately temporary  percentage point (from 2% to 3%). There’s a corresponding rise in inflation expectations, and therefore nominal interest rates and bond yields as well, but only at the time inflation itself goes up.
In other words, we should be ready to review our ways of working to the extent of contemplating changes in organisational structures. Again, let me refer to a case in point in the area that I am best acquainted with: the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism’s (SSM) SupTech agenda. This particular strategy rests on four key building blocks, namely: (i) implementing an innovation model based on open collaboration, (ii) fostering a shared digital culture among its staff, (iii) cultivating an innovation ecosystem that connects stakeholders from within the SSM with start-ups, academia and other institutions, and (iv) developing impactful tools and solutions. Lastly, central banks may want to take the opportunity to try out new resources such as regulatory sandboxes and innovation hubs and to assess their actual ability to foster the development of new ideas, so as to help move them closer to fruition. Similarly, central banks must upgrade the infrastructures and services that they themselves provide since these may constrain the type and depth of privately-led innovation that can take place, and will also having a bearing on overall competitiveness and competition across the industry. Central bank digital currencies are, perhaps, the most visible illustration of this trend but there are others such as the growing interest in exploring blockchain-based solutions for the settlement of payments and securities and the discussions regarding the issuance of a digital identity. 3  For a deeper insight into these topics, please see FSB (2019) “Third-party dependencies in cloud services Considerations on financial stability implications”, December.

Many countries have had to reallocate budgets, issue debt, or rely on foreign aid to finance immediate relief and reconstruction efforts. Most have yet to develop robust public disaster risk financing strategies using ex-ante risk financing solutions, which includes setting aside reserves, establishing contingent credit, and tapping on insurance and capital markets. 8. Several ASEAN countries, however, have made significant strides in the right direction. For instance, Philippines has put in place a disaster risk management strategy since 2010, and implemented a parametric insurance programme covering 25 provinces, which will provide rapid liquidity for the government to enable rebuilding and recovery efforts when disaster strikes. It is now working with the World Bank on a sovereign catastrophe bond to complement the insurance programme, which will provide cover for more extreme events. Over the years, Indonesia has consistently increased its budget allocation for disaster management. Most recently, Indonesia has adopted a new disaster risk financing and insurance strategy, which encompasses the government insuring government buildings from this year. A Coordinated approach to Disaster Risk Financing 9.
Recent developments indicate that market participants have either not been aware of existing best practices guidance or have made the conscious decision to violate such guidance in the hopes of making a short-term gain. The cost of these short-term gains has come at all of our expense and we must all be engaged to ensure that this does not happen again. Moving toward more globally harmonized guidance – and consistent adherence to such guidance – is an important step forward in maintaining the integrity of the market. In recognition of the importance of this work, a new working group of the BIS Markets Committee has been formed to facilitate the establishment of a single global code of conduct and principles and to promote greater adherence to such guidance. 14 This newly formed  13  See http://www.ny.frb.org/fxc/2015/Global%20Preamble%20March30.pdf. 14  See: http://www.bis.org/press/p150511.htm. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  structure will deepen and broaden the already initiated public-private partnership and will engage an even wider set of financial centers in order to effectively move this work on best practices forward. The work will occur on a global scale and will engage a wide variety of market infrastructures and participants, including both the buy side and sell side. It will likely draw upon a variety of efforts, including the important work done in the U.K. under the Fair and Effective Markets Review. The FXC will be actively engaged in this effort along with its counterparts abroad, at the direction of the BIS Markets Committee FX Working Group.

The second session, chaired by Axel Weber, President of the Bundesbank, will analyse the impact of these developments on international capital allocation and global imbalances. The third session, chaired by Rodrigo de Rato, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will consider economic policy responses and the spontaneous adjustment of markets and economic agents. Lastly, the round table, chaired by Roger Ferguson, will draw out the consequences in terms of international financial stability. Stanley Fischer has agreed to take on the difficult task of summarising this symposium. Stanley, like a few others here, is a symbol in himself of the diverse backgrounds of the participants in this symposium: he is a former Professor at MIT, an ex-Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, ex-ViceChairman of Citigroup and currently Governor of the Bank of Israel. As an introduction, I will touch briefly on a few of the questions raised by each of these sessions. The first session will consider some of the decisive changes in trends in productivity and competitiveness that occurred in the 1990s. First change: as from the mid-1990s, productivity growth accelerated in the United States as a result of the gains arising from the production and use of information and communication technologies (ICT) but slowed down in Europe and Japan. For instance, over the last ten years, productivity growth in Europe has been more than one annual percentage point below that of the United States.
This is, of course, partly due to the central banks conducting a monetary policy that has succeeded in bringing down the average level of inflation from the high levels of the 1980s, which has been good. But it is also due to a global development towards lower real interest rates (see Figure 3), something that most say has not had anything to do with monetary policy, but instead is explained by real economic factors. 6 Holston, Laubach and Williams (2017) have carried out empirical research into how the ‘equilibrium real interest rate’ has developed in some leading economies, and they find a clear downturn after the financial crisis 2008-2009. Three of the several attempts to explain why real interest rates are now much lower than before are particularly worth mentioning. The first explanation is based on fundamental economic theory, according to which the real interest rate, at least in a closed economy, will be in proportion to growth in the economy, and the latter has slowed down in recent years. The second concerns the ‘global savings glut’, that is that (primarily) the major economies in Asia and the Middle East have generated large trade surpluses and thereby increased demand for savings, which tended to push down interest rates as the supply of safe assets is limited. The third explanation highlights demographic developments. The idea is that an ageing population needs to save for its pension, which once again leads to an increased tendency to save, which in turn pushes down the real interest rate.

I will take a longer perspective and discuss which tools the Riksbank may need to use, especially if the low interest rate scenario that has characterised the past 10 years becomes even more prolonged. The fact that monetary policy measures affect a central bank’s balance sheet has become increasingly common in large parts of the world. This development has been driven by the very low interest rates and the need to make monetary policy even more expansionary. Essentially, it is nothing new – if we go back in time, there are many examples of central banks that have used variation in their asset portfolios as a means of conducting monetary policy. The monetary policy toolbox also needs to take into account changes in the financial system; for instance, we in 1 [25] ---------------------------*This speech grew out of many long discussions held over the spring of 2020. The opinions expressed are my own. At the same time, I would like to thank David Vestin for his help in writing this speech and Petra Frid for her help with the diagrams. I would also like to thank Mattias Erlandsson, Jesper Hansson, Pernilla Meyersson, Ulf Söderström, Anders Vredin, Frida Fallan, Charlotta Edler, Ann-Leena Mikiver, Cecilia Roos-Isaksson and Marianne Sterner for their valuable comments on the speech and Elizabeth Nilsson, Calum McDonald and Gary Watson for their assistance translating it into English. Sweden have, in recent years, seen a development towards a higher share of market financing for Swedish companies.
Case Study 4: The creation of our present day “virtuous cycle” Mr. Chairman, I would like to now place before you, yet another significant example of harmonization between the Monetary and Fiscal policies, which led to the creation of a new “virtuous cycle” in relation to inflation, interest rates, investor confidence and sustained growth, in our country. As we are all aware, Sri Lanka had been long trapped in a “vicious cycle” of high fiscal deficits leading to high inflation; high inflation leading to high interest rates; high interest rates leading to low investor confidence; low investor confidence leading to sluggish investment; sluggish investment leading to low growth; low growth leading to high debt; and high debt once again leading to high fiscal deficits. This was the vicious cycle that we had been trapped, for more than 5 decades since independence. It is true that we have had one-off spurts of high growth or short periods of low inflation at various times in our history. However, we have to acknowledge that, other than in 2010 and 2011, we have never had over 8% growth in consecutive years, or, for that matter, been even able to record an average growth of over 5% over a 5 year period, prior to 2006! At the same time, other than the period February 2009, till now, Sri Lanka had never enjoyed a period of even two continuous years of single digit inflation, and, believe it or not, our level of average inflation was over 12% prior to that!

Among the buffers Hong Kong banks have built up are a capital adequacy ratio of above 20%, and a liquidity coverage ratio of above 150% – well above international standards. The classified loan ratio is just 0.56%. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  22. At the same time, with a return on equity of 13% last year, the Hong Kong banking industry is also among the most profitable in Asia. Capacity 23. Next, I would like to look at the capacity of the industry – skills and training. 24. It is not a coincidence that one of the financial industry’s main professional bodies – the cohost of today’s gathering – is the Hong Kong Institute of Bankers, which was founded back in 1963 to enhance the profession. 25. Everything in the financial services industry goes back to people. Since the financial crisis 10 years ago, we have seen a significant increase in the complexity in capital, liquidity, risk management and other requirements. On top of that, we have rapid developments in technology and related areas like cybersecurity. The industry has to constantly upgrade its professional expertise and standards just to keep pace. 26. But unlike some other financial sectors, our regulatory framework for banks focuses on authorizing corporate entities. There is no formal licensing regime that applies to individual banking practitioners. Our approach has therefore focused on encouragement and guidance – and to benchmarking.
Also, in the first five months of 2021, the growth amounted around ALL 10 billion. Meeting the demand of market for cash is achieved through ensuring and planning the sufficient stock of cash at the Bank of Albania, which guarantees the security for both the present and future. Allow me to detail briefly some of the features of these two denominations: The 1000 lek banknote, part of the new series, has a refreshed design, but it retains the same motives presented in the existing one, embedding changes related to the whole configuration of all added and improved elements. The theme of the 10000 lek banknote are the symbol of flag and national anthem - the main symbols of our national identity - accompanied with the portrait of the distinguished poet of the Albanian National Renaissance, at the same time, author the “National Anthem”, Aleksandër Stavre Drenova - commonly known by the pen name “Asdreni”. The presentation of a new series of banknotes means more than a simple change of its image. The Bank of Albania continuously improves the quality of the banknote in circulation, aiming to preserve its integrity. Both new banknotes, like all the other denominations of the new series, contain advanced security features. They are produced with cutting-edge technologies for banknote printing and personalised by denomination. The 1000 lek banknote integrates the raised print in the portrait of Pjetër Bogdani, numerals, lettering, and in the short lines, which help the visually-impaired people to easily identify and recognise the banknote.

Thus, our banknotes promote the historical and cultural heritage of our country and highlight the most powerful achievements of many prominent historical figures through centuries. I feel good when I see that the two first denominations of this series, 200 lek and 5000 lek, put in circulation since September 2019, are welcomed by the public, have met the expectations of the Bank, and already are gradually becoming a sustainable part of currency in circulation, by supporting the continuous strengthening the quality of banknotes in circulation, aimed at preserving their integrity, in relation with the public, and upholding a dignified image of both the Bank of Albania and the Albanian state. Today, nearly two years later following the launching and the successful issuance in circulation of the first two denominations, the Bank of Albania is launching the two other banknotes, part of the new series of the Albanian banknotes, the denominations: 1000 lek and 10000 lek. The latter is a completely new denomination in the series of the Albanian banknotes. The printing and issue into circulation for the first time of the new banknote with the largest value, 10000 lekë, represents in itself, the adoption of the banknotes’ structure to the evolution of the structure of prices and wages, the development the electronic payments, and of the other indicators related to the management of currency.