samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
21  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  21  Chart 15: Trade-off that emerged after the referendum has diminished  UK households, businesses and financial markets have reacted at different speeds and to varying degrees to the prospects for the UK’s departure from the EU. In general, some of the disinflationary shock to demand has been deferred, not least because the UK has not yet left the EU, while most of the inflationary channels have begun to appear. Financial markets, particularly sterling, marked down the UK’s relative prospects quickly and sharply. The sterling ERI has depreciated by around 20% since the Brexit process became a possibility. UK focused equities have underperformed global advanced economy equities by around 30pp since the Referendum (in common currency terms) and UK long-run real yields are down by 60bp compared to those for the US. Households looked through Brexit-related uncertainties initially. But more recently, as the consequences of sterling’s fall have shown up in the shops and squeezed their real incomes, they have cut back on spending, slowing the economy. Businesses have been somewhere in between. Since the referendum, they have invested much less aggressively than usual in response to an otherwise very favourable environment (strong external environment, low cost of capital, favourable rates of profitability and limited spare capacity).

These figures are currently distorted by the sharp fall in mobile phone fees, but the Bank of Japan continues to expect CPI inflation to be only close to 1.1% in 2022 and 2023. Not so long ago, many commentators were worried about a possible “Japanification” of the euro area. They were wrong, and should be reassured today: the ECB’s resolute action has been successful in preventing this risk and avoided falling into a trap where economic agents’ expectations remain deflationary (“deflationary mind” as the Japanese often say). These differences between the United States, Japan and the euro area explain the different paces of their monetary reactions. The ECB remains very vigilant about prices and wages dynamics, and will gradually adjust its monetary policy to firmly ensure that inflation recedes soon and then stabilises around its 2% target over the medium term. In our case, we think that 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  this gradual and sequential approach – first tapering, second lift off, and eventually downsizing – is appropriate. But we keep our full optionality about the speed of this sequence, and will definitely be data driven. II. Two great transformations are underway The present Covid crisis and inflation hump – serious though they are – should not let us forget the two “Great transformations” – the ecological and the digital ones – that we will all have to pursue in the long run.
Thus, it is not surprising that Puerto Rico did not see the sharp spike in loan delinquencies that many areas saw from late 2007 to early 2009. Instead, Puerto Rico’s delinquencies on household debt – that is, the proportion of debt where payments are 90 or more days late – have risen gradually as the recession has persisted. In 2005, households were behind on about 5 percent of the total debt. As of 2010, they were delinquent on about 9 percent of the debt, about the same as the national average – reflecting the stress imposed on many families by the deep and long recession. The outlook and exports Looking ahead to the rest of 2011, I see grounds for cautious optimism. In particular, exports, which have been so important to the economic recovery on the mainland, have the potential to contribute to growth here in Puerto Rico as well. Currently, Puerto Rico runs a sizeable trade surplus, selling more products to the world than it buys. In 2009, the latest year for which full-year data are reported, the value of exports was roughly $ billion compared with roughly $ billion of imports. Based on data through November, exports grew briskly, by about 10 percent, in 2010. What does Puerto Rico export? Pharmaceuticals are by far the island’s largest export. In addition, Puerto Rico is a successful exporter of medical equipment, computer and electronic products, and electrical equipment.

Although I see why it is difficult to define inflation targeting, I consider the definition given by Ben Bernanke as being the appropriate one. Accordingly, inflation targeting is “a framework for monetary policy characterised by the public announcement of official quantitative targets […] for the inflation rate over one or more time horizons, and by explicit acknowledgement that low, stable inflation is monetary policy’s primary long-run goal. Among other important features of inflation targeting are vigorous efforts to communicate with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary authorities, and, in many cases, mechanisms that strengthen the central bank’s accountability for attaining these objectives.” The definition can be wrapped up by adding instrument independence for the Central Bank and the lack of an explicit intermediate target, as all factors affecting inflation are taken into consideration. An important feature of inflation targeting is the need for accountability of the central bank. Within the inflation targeting framework, this is enhanced by the public announcement and commitment to attain an inflation target. The explicit target and the public and transparent nature of inflation targeting also enable the central bank to withstand political pressures more easily and to overcome the so-called time inconsistency problem. In this sense, as Frederic Mishkin1 argues, central bank independence and inflation targeting are mutually reinforcing. Adopting inflation targeting is not just a matter of choice, but also of fulfilling a number of key requirements.
On 15 December 2020, the Federal Reserve Board announces it has formally joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, or NGFS. ii Responsible Investment Report of the Banque de France 2019, June 2020. iii Article 3 of the Treaty on European Union. iv Seppänen et al. (2006), « Room Temperature and Productivity in Office Work », LBNL-60952, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA. ou Niemelä et al. (2002), « The effects of air temperature on labour productivity in call centres – a case study », Energy and Buildings 34(8), 759-64. v Weidmann, J. (2021), “What role should central banks play in combating climate change?”, Remarks at the ILF conference Green Banking and Green Central Banking: What are the right concepts?, Goethe University Frankfurt, 25 January. vi NGFS (2020), “Survey on monetary policy operations and climate change: key lessons for further analysis”. vii Bolton, P., Després, M., Pereira da Silva, L., Samama, F., Svartzman, R. (2020), “The green swan: central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change”, Bank for International Settlements and Banque de France. viii Objective defined in the Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries, of which the European Union. ix Schnabel, I.

With the implementation of TARGET2 and BISERA7, banks and their customers have at their disposal a reliable and secure infrastructure for processing small and large payments in euro. This is a proper opportunity to invite any of you who, for one reason or another, have not yet availed of the advantages entailed in joining these two systems to do so. The most direct and broadest everyday contact of the general public with the banking system is through the banknote and coin related services provided to individuals and businesses. This year’s great event in this area was the commencement of operations of the BNB Cash Centre in Sofia. Our Cash Centre is one of the state-of-the-art facilities for storage and processing of banknotes and coins within the European System of Central Banks, meeting the highest requirements to security and convenience of the serviced banks and CIT companies. Through it the BNB has also met its obligations with regard to currency distribution and destruction of unfit currency. In its newly opened cash centre the BNB continues to provide to its customers standard currency-related services. However, this is the proper time to share with you that more and more often we receive at the BNB complaints by citizens that banks have refused to exchange damaged Bulgarian banknotes or that customers have received such banknotes in ATM cash withdrawal transactions. This necessitates the conclusion that banks do not strictly observe the BNB requirements to the quality of banknotes and coins.
Mark Yallop is due to join on 1/12/14 and David Belsham on 1/5/15. 5  http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Pages/about/default.aspx. 6  See for example, AJ Hughes Hallett (1989) ‘Econometrics and the Theory of Economic Policy: The TinbergenTheil Contributions 40 Years On.’ in Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 41, issue 1, pages 189–214. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  there should be at least as many independent and effective policy instruments as there are independent policy targets. By an instrument I mean any policy setting which can be changed: such as Bank Rate or the required amount of capital to be held by firms. To be satisfied, the Tinbergen rule requires that the policy tools being used must each have an impact on at least one of the objectives in sufficient size to make a substantial contribution towards achieving it. And that the pattern of effects of one tool on all objectives cannot be perfectly reproduced by changing any other tools singly or in combination ie the policy tools are each unique in their precise pattern of effects. Additional conditions are necessary if the objectives are assigned to different policy making bodies. So I will add a number of other sufficient conditions to cover this case. •  Each policy tool should be assigned to meeting a target that it is relatively effective upon (ie to exploit comparative advantage). This may seem obvious, but is less so if one is uncertain about a particular policy’s effectiveness.

Controls over the rating system  Of course, a ratings system is useless without the necessary system of checks and balances, or control structure, which is the second area I will discuss as needing banks’ attention. Banks must have the proper controls in place to ensure that the rating system is performing as intended, and that its ratings are accurate - that is, that a "5" rating really is a "5" and that a "7" really is a "7." There are at least three major structural elements that are necessary in any good ratings system control structure: •  The first is independence in the process of assigning ratings; the people assigning ratings (and even approving loans) should be independent of the marketing department and revenue producers. •  A second check is having a subsequent review of ratings by an independent review group. This group is charged with reviewing ratings after the fact - that is, after origination - for accuracy, timeliness and consistency. Moreover, both the ratings system and individual ratings should be subject to review by the internal audit department. •  A third and final critical element is transparency in the ratings process. Here, what we would expect is that the ratings criteria are objective, and that the bank has in place policies and procedures that clearly document the rationale for each ratings category. The more transparent the process is, the easier it is for a third party to audit the ratings through some form of replication of the analysis.
01.10.2020  The role of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy in the COVID-19 crisis Deusto Business Alumni Meeting Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure for me to be able to participate in this meeting organised by Deusto Business Alumni. I would like to take this opportunity to share firstly with you some thoughts on how money monetary policy has helped stave off some of the more serious consequences, at least from the economic standpoint, of the COVID-19 crisis. In the second part of my speech, I would also like to reflect on certain challenges that the gradual reduction in the so-called “natural interest rate” poses for monetary policy conduct in advanced economies. This is an issue which will be particularly significant in the context of the monetary policy review initiated at the European Central Bank (ECB). The monetary policy reaction during the crisis The outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe in late February and early March was a shock of great magnitude which triggered an unprecedented economic impact due to the reduction in both the supply and demand for goods and services. The serious, temporary and global nature of the shock initially required powerful economic policy actions. The objective of this “shock therapy” was to avoid a temporary shock from generating effects which persist over time.

One problem with these compensation strategies is their symmetry, understood as the central bank’s commitment to react equally to below-target inflation deviations (which, as we have seen, are the really problematic ones in the current setting) and above-target deviations; i.e., following a period of above target inflation, the central bank would have to reduce inflation below the target, which would require depressing economic activity and employment. Given that a commitment of this type may not be fully credible, it has recently been proposed that these strategies should be temporary: the central bank would normally operate under a traditional inflation targeting regime, but, in the event of a crisis with low inflation and interest rates close to the lower bound, the strategy would be to compensate in future for the “lost inflation” in this period.11 In recent years, various central banks have initiated monetary policy strategy reviews (including the ECB and the US Federal Reserve). In fact, the Federal Reserve has recently announced the main results of its strategic review, which, among other changes, has led to the adoption of a new average inflation targeting strategy, albeit with an undefined timeframe for calculating the average inflation that is to be stabilised. 11  See, for example, Bernanke et al. (2019).
Similarly, customers must also be engaged, as they play a crucial role in creating much needed demand for Fintech led transformation. Therefore stakeholders have to consider how to educate consumers and businesses about the benefits of Fintech as well as making them aware of risks and challenges, so that they build trust, and can make informed financial services decisions. Let me conclude with a final thought. The digitalisation of the financial sector will continue to accelerate over the coming years. To help capture the greatest benefit from continuing waves of innovation, we must build trust in new financial technologies - by promoting an atmosphere that encourages creativity and innovations to the benefit of our societies, but without sacrificing consumer protection or undermining the financial system stability. Thank you! 1 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/12/03/fintech-market-reports-  rapid-growth-during-covid-19-pandemic  4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches

Against this background, the authorities had two options: either to use the fact that Malta did not meet the fiscal criteria to maintain the status quo and delay the implementation of sensitive reforms, with the risk of undermining growth prospects; or to use the adverse impact of globalization on Malta’s current account and the vulnerability of the fixed exchange rate regime to highlight the urgent need for a faster pace of reform, while holding out the promise of the expected benefits of the euro. The authorities chose the latter approach, including a rather ambitious programme of fiscal consolidation and a unilateral commitment to maintain the Maltese lira/euro exchange rate at the central parity rate in ERM II. This appeared a natural way to buttress the economy’s long record of exchange rate stability, though it was also dictated by the need to counter harmful speculation at the time about the level of the exchange rate. Three years after EU accession, that bold decision appears to have paid off. Economic growth rose to 3.3% in 2005 and 2006, and is expected to stay around that level; the unemployment rate stabilised, then eased slightly; and FDI flows, which have always been important, strengthened further. The gap between productivity growth and wages narrowed to the point that unit labour costs are now increasing negligibly or falling, depending on the measure used.
A second issue I would like to touch upon is the need for an in-depth analysis of the framework for smaller retail institutions, particularly those typically funded by deposits. By now, there is a common understanding that we need to rethink the way to treat those in crisis. I am sure we are all aware of initiatives to develop special administrative liquidation procedures, and of alternative proposals on the need to extend the scope of resolution by reassessing the concept of public interest. My personal feeling right now is that both ways could be workable, and the argument I would like to present is that we should first try to agree on an optimal way to absorb losses and facilitate eventual restructuring costs. In non-systemic crises, bailing-in depositors or bailing-out institutions are socially costly options. At the same time, high MREL levels could be very expensive to achieve for many of these institutions. Therefore, I would suggest striking the right balance between, on the one hand, the internalisation of losses above capital requirements and, on the other, collective industry funding to facilitate the transfer tools. Connected to the previous topic is the issue of the level playing field. Failing banks that do not satisfy the public interest test are subject to insolvency procedures in accordance with national regulations that vary substantially across jurisdictions. At the end of the day, this results in an unlevelled playing field as some have upgraded their insolvency proceedings to quasi-resolution frameworks.

If the Riksbank launches an e-krona with a positive interest rate, it can in some situations be very attractive for both the general public and companies to convert their account balances in the banks to e-krona with the Riksbank. The banking system could then be drained of the funding for its lending, and become unstable, which could damage the supply of credit in the economy. In addition to the questions I have just mentioned, there are a number of other questions, such as technological solutions, consumer integrity and how a solution can be adapted to suite different groups in society. As you hear, I have only been able to take up a lot of questions here. I don't have all the answers. And I don’t think anyone else has at present. The only thing we can be fairly certain of is that whatever direction the Riksbank chooses to take - whether or not to issue e-krona - it can have a major impact on the payment market, the banks’ business models, the way interest rate setting functions, financial stability, and so on. The Riksbank will investigate e-krona Now I have given my view on the situation for Sweden as one of the countries where the use of cash is declining the most and the fastest and where the general public are finding it increasingly difficult to get access to central bank money.
Svein Gjedrem: Hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs Introduction by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a public hearing before the Storting's Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs, together with Mrs Kristin Halvorsen, Minister of Finance, and Mr Bjørn Skogstad Aamo, Director General of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, Oslo, 13 February 2009. *  *  *  Government finance fund and government bond fund The crisis in the banking sector was initially a problem of liquidity. In October and November, there was considerable turbulence and fear was spreading among banks. Credit premiums were high. The situation has improved. The improvement is to a considerable extent the result of action taken by the authorities. The swap arrangement whereby banks can exchange covered bonds for government paper has been important. The arrangement is oriented towards larger banks, and a number of banks have made use of this facility, in an amount so far totalling more than NOK 70 billion. Norges Bank has proposed an extension of the arrangement to provide banks with funding at 5-year maturities. Maturities so far have been up to 3 years. The extension is important to ensure that maturity dates do not all fall within a short period. The arrangement provides banks with Treasury bills. Banks have used these as collateral for loans, sold them or kept them as liquidity reserves. There has been high demand for Treasury bills.

John Gieve: Economic prospects and the policy challenge Speech by Sir John Gieve, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the Cityco Breakfast Meeting, Manchester, 16 January 2009. *  *  *  Introduction One of the things that strikes me most on coming back to Manchester is the pace at which the fabric of the city changes – and I was looking at this yesterday from up on the 23rd floor. It’s not much more than two years since I was last here but in that time the city centre has added about half a million square feet of retail space, more than 1½ million sq ft of new office space and nearly 8000 extra hotel beds (a 40% increase). All this development reflects the attractiveness of Manchester as a location for inward investment and even more importantly the strong growth in businesses indigenous to the city, many of which are represented today. But while I gather that nearly a million square feet of office space has been let again in 2008 it is clear that in Manchester, as elsewhere, the past year has been increasingly challenging for businesses of all types and the prospect is forbidding. The severity and nature of the challenges we face particularly in the banking sector makes it very difficult to predict where we will be in a year from now. And the pace of change means that it is even more true today than usual that we cannot rely for navigation on official statistics alone.