samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The krone exchange rate is the price of our currency measured in a foreign currency. Developments in other countries are just as important for the krone as developments in the Norwegian economy. Capital flows freely and flows can change rapidly. This can spill over to exchange rates and interest rates as well as output and employment. There is a cost involved for businesses in hedging against fluctuations in the krone. A krone that is stable - but too strong - also entails social costs in the form of low activity. Likewise, a krone that is stable - but too weak - is a source of high inflation. Norway is running a current account surplus as a result of sizeable oil and gas exports. Owing to high oil prices, the current account surplus is rising this year. An increase in the current account surplus will normally result in higher net demand for the domestic currency. In Norway, however, the additional foreign exchange revenues that accrue to the Norwegian state as a result of high oil prices will be invested in foreign securities through the Government Petroleum Fund. As a result, they will not have a direct impact on the balance in the Norwegian foreign exchange market. Oil companies hold a large share of their financial capital in foreign currency, and higher revenues in these companies therefore results in an increase in capital outflows.

1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  However, they could also reduce the efficiency of the overall financial system if their roll-out leads to a fragmentation of processes, and their interoperability and coexistence with existing systems are not properly organised, or, on the contrary, if they lead to the creation of monopolies. This latter risk stems from the growing interest of global digital giants in digital payment services. Thanks to their huge user bases and expertise in end-toend technology, Bigtechs have the potential to pose a major competitive threat to European payments’ players, who are less experienced in the digital sphere. They could also increase Europe’s reliance on foreign players for payment services, with all the data privacy and sovereignty challenges that this entails. This double-edged impact of innovation on financial system efficiency notably concerns the tokenisation of financial markets and, in general, the use cases of decentralised finance (DeFI). C) Innovation in the financial sector, especially the emergence of Bigtechs and the development of new settlement assets in the form of crypto-assets, raises new challenges for monetary sovereignty and stability. In particular, if stablecoins were rolled out on a massive scale by BigTechs (Facebook’s Diem project), they could be adopted as private settlement assets on a global scale, thanks to significant network effects.
5 years remaining maturity  Stock markets Index: 31 December 2008 = 100 120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90  80  80  70  70  60  60  50 01 January 2008  50 01 April 2008 Sw eden (O M XS)  BIS Review 7/2009  01 July 2008  01 O ctober 2008  Euro area (EuroStoxx)  01 January 2009  US (S&P 500)  11  Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Index = 50, unchanged activity 80  80  70  70  60  60  50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008  Euro area  USA  Sweden  The Riksbank’s balance sheet total ASSETS Gold Foreign currency reserve Lending in USD Lending in SEK Other assets Total LIABILITIES Banknotes and coins Fine-tuning Riksbank Certificates Liabilities to Fed Equity Other Total  12  30 June 2008 26 158 0 4 4 192  31 december 2008 30 200 196 266 7 700  Change 4 42 196 262 3 508  108 0 0 0 59 25 192  112 207 49 189 59 84 700  4 207 49 189 0 59 508  BIS Review 7/2009  Policy rates Per cent 7.00  7.00  6.00  6.00  5.00  5.00  4.00  4.00  3.00  3.00  2.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  0.00 01 January 2008  0.00 01 April 2008  01 July 2008 Sweden  Euro area  01 O ctober 2008  01 January 2009  US  Reporate and mortgage rates Per cent 7.00  7.00  6.00  6.00  5.00  5.00  4.00  4.00  3.00  3.00  2.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  0.00 01 January 2005  01 January 2006 SBAB 3 month rate  BIS Review 7/2009  01 January 2007  01 January 2008  M ortgage rate 3 months  0.00 01 January 2009  Repo rate  13  TCW-index Index: 18 November 1992 = 100 150  150 TCW index  145  145  140  140  135  135  130  130  125  125  120 01 January 2000  14  120 01 January 2002  01 January 2004  01 January 2006  01 January 2008  BIS Review 7/2009

Barbro Wickman-Parak: The economy and the labour market Speech by Ms Barbro Wickman-Parak, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB), Stockholm, 29 April 2010. *  *  *  Sweden’s GDP fell by almost five per cent in 2009, compared with the previous year. We need to go back as far as the 1940s to find an individual year with a correspondingly large fall in growth. The large demand shock that followed in the wake of the financial crisis had an unavoidable and drastic impact on production and employment. It has been possible to alleviate these effects, but not to prevent them, despite forceful monetary policy measures and expansionary fiscal policy. Normally, changes in employment and unemployment occur two quarters after changes in production. This time, however, it appears as though the upturn in employment has already begun and unemployment has stopped rising, which is surprisingly early given the large fall in GDP. But unemployment is still high, and we are expecting a slow recovery in employment in the coming period. During the past three months unemployment has been around 9 per cent as a share of the labour force. Today I intend to talk about developments in the labour market in Sweden. I will begin by describing how employment usually varies over the business cycle and then discuss what is different this time. I shall conclude by discussing how we Executive Board members viewed developments in the labour market at our monetary policy meeting last week.
As discussed over the past two days, many economies in Asia have been working on this, as this reform is important not only to derivative markets, but also to bank lending. The HKMA has actively engaged our banks to identify their exposures to the benchmark rates of relevance (i.e., LIBOR and HIBOR) and to prepare for various scenarios that could play out during this process. At the same time, the Treasury Markets Association in Hong Kong has proposed HONIA as an alternative risk free overnight reference rate to HIBOR and is consulting industry stakeholders. I should take this opportunity to mention that ISDA’s leadership on two important implementation issues – namely, how to adjust new overnight reference rates for longer tenors and how to ensure credit risk premiums are reflected – helped pave the way for constructive discussions in Hong Kong. So overall, progress is being made. Managing the Risks in Financial Market Development Whether it’s facilitating fintech innovations or deepening derivatives markets, it’s critical that a robust and adaptive regulatory framework and effective international coordination are in place to mitigate potential financial stability risks. The types of regulatory framework would depend on the stage of development in the market itself. For markets that are going through innovation, particularly those that are adopting new technologies, regulations should focus on “nurturing” rather than “restraining”.

Rodrigo Vergara: Chile’s latest Monetary Policy Report Presentation by Mr Rodrigo Vergara, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, before the Finance Commission of the Honorable Senate of the Republic, Santiago de Chile, 2 April 2013. *  *  *  The Monetary Policy Report of March 2013 can be found at http://www.bcentral.cl. Introduction Mr. President of the Senate’s Finance Commission, senator Andrés Zaldívar; senators members of this Commission, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for inviting me to present the view of the Bank’s Board on recent macroeconomic developments, together with the macroeconomic outlook and its and monetary policy implications. This view is contained in detail in our March 2013 Monetary Policy Report. There is no doubt that the Chilean economy is in good standing. In a complex international context where growth in the developed world is still sluggish and particularly the Eurozone continues in recession, Chile continues to grow at over 5 percent annually, unemployment has fallen and inflation remains low. In these circumstances we must avoid complacency and be alert to the risks facing our economy to reduce their likelihood of occurrence, or otherwise be prepared to deal with them in the best way possible. Precisely our Monetary Policy Report traditionally analyzes the baseline scenario, and also risk scenarios. International economic conditions, while still complex, have improved in recent months from the deteriorated conditions of the first half of 2012.
Whether a quake seems likely to occur soon has no bearing on this. For resilience in structures, the best indicator of underlying vulnerability is how close the city is to the fault line or plate boundary. On that basis, Apple’s new California HQ uses new earthquake resilient technology. 3  For resilience in the financial system, it is how much debt there is in the economy (or economies) to which it’s exposed. That’s why, when we come to decide how big the banking system’s buffers of loss-absorbing capital should be, we don’t focus on any economic tremors we may feel. We don’t insist on tougher standards just because trade tensions threaten to slow the world economy or changes in sentiment hit financial markets, or because uncertainty is weighing on the domestic economy. Instead we focus on debt – a key driver of how far up the Richter scale economic earthquakes tend to be. 4 Think of a build-up of debt as being the economic equivalent of building close to a fault line. When a quake hits, the impact is greater and more resilience is needed in the structures. This focus means we can appear contrarian. Debt has a habit of increasing in calm periods, when those in the financial system think it’s safe to take more risks. So we can find ourselves demanding tougher standards when risks are thought by many to be low. And we don’t start demanding them when the tremors start, when risks are thought by many to suddenly be high.

A typical economic earthquake – the sort that tends to occur every twenty years or so – results in a recession and subsequent recovery that leaves economic output after three years just 0.3% below where it was when the shock hit. David Aikman, Jonathan Bridges, Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, Cian O’Neill and Akash Raja, ‘How do financial vulnerabilities and bank resilience affect medium-term macroeconomic tail risk?’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper, forthcoming. 7 This work builds on research at the IMF, with whom we have collaborated closely. Governor Carney used the same analytical approach to consider ‘Capital flows at risk’ – see ‘Pull, push, pipes: sustainable capital flows for a new world order’, speech given at the 2019 Institute of International Finance Spring Membership Meeting, Tokyo, June 2019. 6  8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  8  When debt builds up, the distribution of future growth outturns shifts. It skews towards weaker growth. The red line shows how this distribution shifts in response to elevated levels of credit and a wider current account deficit. A 1-in-20 earthquake tends to be more damaging.
We may take some comfort from the fact that, when set against the millions of banking consumer transactions that take place every day, they still form a very small number. There are also many ways of explaining the increase before we start to point to the possibility of declining standards of service. But the increase is a matter of concern to the HKMA, not least because, although we are subject to just as much public scrutiny as the football referees, we do not possess their almost unlimited powers of decision. Around a year ago I spoke at your half-yearly dinner on the subject of consumer protection and the banking industry. In that speech I set out the various options identified by the HKMA for a more effective handling of consumer complaints against banks. Today I am going to address the same subject. You might be wondering whether I am running out of topics, or whether the HKMA has got stuck in a groove. But I raise the subject again for three reasons: •  First, while there has been some enhancement and standardisation of the procedures for handling complaints by the banks themselves, through the HKMA's guideline on the subject issued in February, and through the industry's own Code of Banking Practice, the basic question of what to do with complaints that are not resolved by individual banks remains unanswered. Other than the courts, there is no external dispute resolution mechanism for bank customers in Hong Kong.

Essentially we took the view that unbalanced growth was better than no growth at all - which was the only other option we had. This "two speed" economy has, I know, been reflected in the pattern of your own activity as FLA members, with consumer finance volumes growing strongly in recent years where business volumes have been relatively flat. In the past year alone new business written to consumers was nearly three times that written to business customers. Now clearly the imbalances can't go on increasingly indefinitely. The build-up of household debt and the related strong rise in house prices we saw last year in particular must begin to moderate at some point. So much of the recent debate has been about whether the eventual adjustment will occur gradually, within the context of continuing overall expansion, or more abruptly in which case the overall expansion could prove more difficult to sustain. On the macro-economic data it seems clear that the global economy in fact bottomed out around a year or so ago, and that we have since seen the beginnings of a recovery, notably in the US, on which so much of the rest of the world currently depends. And it is also clear that monetary policy generally and in some countries also fiscal policy - remains supportive.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Now let me turn to the issues that directly impact the banking industry: what might be the implications for financial institutions as a result of the measures discussed earlier, and what are the challenges ahead for the banking sector? I would like to point out a few: First, in the new financial landscape following the implementation of the Master Plan, we anticipate a structural change in the banking sector with more industry consolidation and emergence of financial conglomerates, embraced by the “One Presence” principle. Such processes should lead to larger size and falling number of financial institutions. Although not a sure ticket to success, size will allow the working of economies of scale and scope - to eliminate redundancies in administrative and operational functions, reduce costs from more diversified portfolio of clients and enhance income from provision of wider range of services. For the first time ever in the Thai banking history, banks will have the opportunity to do all these and grow through consolidation and/or forming a financial group. Up until now cost cutting and income enhancement, for example, were possible only through reorganization and re-engineering within the same organization. Of course, there were cases of mergers in the history, but they were mainly out of necessity to solve the problem of some weak  BIS Review 43/2004  3  banks, not as a calculated move for growth.

This cautiousness, which is rational for each bank and counterparty individually, is bad for the system because it constrains the supply of credit and results in tighter financial conditions. This, in turn, makes the bad economic outcome more likely. The stress assessment regime that is being implemented should help to break this dynamic. Banking institutions will end up with sufficient capital to withstand even an adverse environment. This should reassure banks and investors that the banking system will remain resilient. With more capital in place, more lending should take place. This, in turn, should reduce the likelihood that the bad economic scenario will, in fact, be realized. The result: a virtuous rather than a vicious circle! BIS Review 28/2009  5  The point of the stress assessment is not to pick winners or losers, but instead to ensure that the banking system and all the major banks have sufficient capital to withstand a very adverse environment. Following the conclusion of the stress assessment process, the government is committed to supplying whatever amount of capital is needed to ensure that all the major banks will remain viable. The second major initiative that deserves mention is the PPIF or Public-Private Investment Fund. This facility, which would be underpinned by TARP capital and private capital, would purchase illiquid, legacy assets.
The economy policy priorities specified for the years 2003-2006 in Europe are the following: (i) promoting economic growth, (ii) creating jobs, and (iii) sustainability of public finances. •  Economic growth in Europe has fallen behind its potential in the past three years. This again seems to point to the need for structural reforms. It is in the interest of Estonia that structural reforms targeted at improved efficiency in the use of resources would continue both in the recently joined countries as well as in the old EU member states. •  Regardless of the fears prevalent in the ‘old’ Europe, extensive labour influx from the new member states in the near future is unlikely. Therefore, the insufficient flexibility of the pan-European labour market has to be counterbalanced by as efficient as possible internal market, high mobility of capital, and as flexible as possible internal labour market. •  Estonia is building up a modern pension and health insurance system. This is an area where also the current ‘old’ member states will probably have to focus more on individualised contributions and securing more extensive employment. •  Yet the greatest problem the European Union faces is the budget issue due to the need to reform the pension system and in particular the healthcare system in the light of long-term sustainability and on account of the budgetary positions of the member states that deteriorated in 2003.

How we fulfil our tasks Ladies and gentlemen, in light of the high loss potential of mortgage and real estate market crises, the question is: How can systemic risks originating in these markets be contained? From a macroprudential perspective, three elements stand out: identifying the risks at an early stage, containing their growth, and strengthening banks’ resilience. I would like to explain these three elements in greater detail. Let me begin with the SNB’s risk monitoring, before speaking about the macroprudential instruments we have at our disposal. 5  Cf. the SNB focus article Household wealth in Switzerland: concepts and trends in an international comparison, available online on the SNB’s data portal: data.snb.ch/en/topics/texts#!/doc/focus_20210429 (consulted on 30 August 2021). Page 4/12  Risk monitoring  In identifying risks at an early stage, we are interested in vulnerabilities on the mortgage and real estate markets and in their possible consequences for the banking sector. Vulnerabilities manifest themselves primarily in inflated real estate prices and unsustainable mortgage lending. Both entail a heightened susceptibility to corrections in the form of sudden drops in prices and sharp rises in loan defaults. Our assessment of these risks is based on a broad range of data and methods. The fact that such a broad range is required reflects the high level of uncertainty involved in measuring these risks, as well as the different strengths and weaknesses of the individual indicators used. The more indicators there are pointing to a certain development, the clearer the assessment becomes.
In recent decades, however, the real rate of interest – i.e. the nominal interest rate less consumer price inflation – has likewise been falling (cf. chart 3). As central banks have only limited influence on the development of the long-term real rate of interest, other factors must have been at work. First, population ageing in the advanced economies has resulted in an increased propensity to save, which in turn has increased the supply of investable capital. 4 1 2 3  4  The percentage rate applied to retirement savings to calculate the annual old-age pension. The minimum rate for the interest payable on retirement savings. The parameters apply first and foremost to mandatory insurance cover. Under the BVG, it is the portion of a salary between CHF 24,885 and 85,320 (the ‘coordinated salary’) that has to be insured. However, many pension funds pay benefits over and above this statutory minimum (‘non-mandatory’ pension insurance). Pension funds that provide ‘comprehensive’ insurance cover in excess of the minimum benefits prescribed by law can define a conversion rate applicable to all retirement savings, provided the pension actually paid is at least as high as the pension payable under the mandatory insurance. If life expectancy increases while the retirement age stays the same, the number of post-retirement years rises. Thus employees have to save more money than previously if they are to be able to spend the same amount each year in their old age. Page 3/8  Second, productivity growth is declining.

Caleb M Fundanga: The importance of cross border information exchange for Zambia Remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the launch of the Alumniportal Deutschland, Lusaka, 25 November 2008. *  *  *  • Her Excellency the Ambassador of the Germany Embassy in Zambia • Management and staff from the Germany Embassy in Zambia • Fellow alumni • Members of the press • Distinguished invited guests • Ladies and gentlemen Guten Abend meine Damen und Herren. I am truly honoured to officiate at this important Launch of the Alumniportal Deutschland. I am informed that Africa has a rare honour of being the first continent to implement the Alumniportal Deutschland. I am certain that our implementation process will define the failure or success of the whole project. We thus have a huge challenge to ensure that we achieve success and provide a benchmark for others to emulate. However, looking at the many beaming faces present in this room, I have no doubt that we will provide more than just a benchmark for others to follow. I am glad to note that we are all optimistic on the success of this project in Zambia in particular and Africa in general. We have a duty to represent our continent and give it the honour that it so deserves. Your Excellency, the Launch of the Alumniportal could not have come at more opportune time when cross border information exchange has become cardinal in every aspects of life especially trade.