samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Within that time, Jim reviewed the claim, cross-referenced it with the policy, ran 18 fraud-detection algorithms, approved it, sent wiring instructions to the bank and notified the policyholder of the claim payment. The average claim payout in the US is about 30–45 days. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches

One element of this is the response of regulators to the financial crisis (to which I will return later), while the other is a product of the rapid development of technology and trading strategies. The effects have probably been offset to some degree by beneficial influences from central bank monetary policy actions which have increased market liquidity. Measures of risk that reflect the overall demand for and supply of financial assets, including liquidity risk premia, remain low by historical standards, notwithstanding recent events. In part, this likely reflects the continued intended effects of monetary policy setting and the communication of policy looking forward. This has, as intended, provided an incentive for risk-taking by investors, and thus the market environment has been conducive to the so-called “search for yield”. But, as described, underlying conditions in financial markets suggest that the current situation could be fragile. 5 Shocks that might prompt large-scale asset disposals are of particular concern. The global asset management industry is both large in size in its own right and relative to the size of the commercial banking system. A key issue is the degree to which asset managers (or shadow banks) typically offer shortterm redemptions against potentially illiquid assets. This capacity to realise assets without unwanted disturbance to financial markets is therefore critical and is shaping the work of authorities. The risk is inherently global in nature, thereby suggesting that internationally– coordinated policy action is the preferred outcome where necessary.
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the July 2015 Inflation Report, Ankara, 30 July 2015. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. Distinguished Guests, Welcome to the briefing held to convey the main messages of the Inflation Report of July 2015. The report typically summarizes the economic outlook underlying monetary policy decisions, shares our evaluations on macroeconomic developments and presents our medium-term inflation forecasts, which were revised in view of the developments in the last quarter, along with our monetary policy stance. In addition to the main text, the report includes six boxes entailing interesting and up-to-date analyses on various topics. These boxes in the Report look into the information content of credit in explaining inflation, scrutinize the taxation in the Turkish tobacco products market, analyze the export-inflation relationship in food products, examine the use of survey data in short-term GDP forecasts, elaborate on the effect of oil prices on exports, and present information on the government spending multiplier. The titles of the boxes are shown on the slide. All of these analyses shed light on noteworthy issues in the Turkish economy. I strongly recommend that you read these boxes, which will soon be published on our website. I would like to commence my speech by reviewing the global economic outlook, given its undeniable influence on our policies.

Such low real interest rates would normally lead to GDP and inflation abroad being unreasonably high. If reality and models differ, it is in my opinion reality that applies. In the current abnormal times, models and historical patterns do not work so well and should to a great extent be replaced by judgement. In my opinion, the forecasts for inflation and GDP abroad under the current abnormal circumstances are compatible with the low interest rates abroad. Monetary policy alternatives in October I would thus claim that the assumption in the main scenario that policy rates abroad will be high is unrealistic, and that it is more reasonable to assume a forecast for policy rates abroad that is compatible with market expectations of interest rates abroad. This also means assuming the prevailing actual long interest rates abroad with regard to the effect on the exchange rate. Figure 9 shows monetary policy alternatives, all under the assumption of a forecast for policy rates abroad in line with market expectations, that is, a forecast for policy rates abroad that follows the grey curve in Figure 7. Figure 9a shows different interest rate paths. The red broken curve, called “Main scenario repo rate path”, is the main scenario’s repo rate path. The blue broken curve, called “Riksbank’s reaction function”, shows the repo rate path arising from the Riksbank’s historical reaction function when policy rates abroad are compatible with the prevailing market expectations. The yellow broken curve, called “Market repo rate path”, shows the prevailing market expectations for the repo rate.
The first form of money is the banknotes issued by central banks, such as 8  the Adam Smith £ These account for just 3% of the stock but 40% of all consumer transactions. Next is electronic central bank money in the form of the reserves that commercial banks hold with us, including to settle transactions with one another. Finally, and most significantly, the electronic deposits that commercial banks create when they extend loans to borrowers, accounting for fully 80% of money in the system. 9  The private financial sector cannot create money without limit, but is disciplined by competition, constrained by prudential regulation, and limited by decisions of households and companies that can reduce the stock of money (by, for example, repaying existing debt). Monetary policy is the ultimate limit on money creation because it directly influences the price of money and other financial assets and therefore the demand for the money created by the private sector. 10  Most of the institutions that underpin sterling’s effectiveness as money are now housed in the Bank of England. -  11  In particular:  Our commitment to the highest quality banknotes that you and the publican can use with confidence.

And a few may view paper money – even the Bank of England itself – as archaic vestiges of an old centralised order of payments that will soon be swept aside by a digital, distributed future. And that’s my topic today: the future of money. Specifically, how developments in money and payments technologies could transform our economy in ways good and bad. And how, for the good of the people of the United Kingdom, the Bank of England is helping to manage the potential risks and to realise the promise of the future of money. What is money? In The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith defines money by the roles it plays in society, in particular, how well it serves as:  -  A store of value with which to transfer purchasing power from today to some future time;  -  A medium of exchange with which to make payments for goods and services; and  -  A unit of account with which to measure the value of a particular good, service, saving or loan. These functions of money operate in a hierarchy (Figure 2). There are many assets that people view as stores of value — houses, for instance — that are not used as media of exchange. By comparison, an asset can only act as a medium of exchange if at least two people are prepared to treat it as a store of value, at least temporarily.
As regards Basel II, June 2004 saw the publication of the final text of “A Revised Framework of the International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”. The most notable new developments are that it allows institutions to use internal risk measurement methodologies if they meet certain minimum requirements and are accepted by the supervisor. The possibility of using the most advanced methodologies will depend on the development of risk management systems, on the effective integration of these systems into management, on the adaptation of the technological environment and on the availability of consistent and integrated historical information databases. BIS Review 45/2005  11  Although the Accord will not enter into force until 2007, work has commenced on the long and complicated task of development, implementation, internal validation by institutions and review by the Banco de España of these methodologies, at speeds which will inevitably differ depending on the preparedness of the institutions. Furthermore, the European Parliament is debating a directive to legally implement Basel II after appropriately adapting it to the specific features of EU institutions and markets. It is difficult to state, in a nutshell, what the new Accord will signify. Perhaps most noteworthy are the three core ideas on which the three pillars rest: a recognition in regulation of sound practices in risk management, along with an incentive to encourage them; a strengthening of the supervisor’s judgement, as an added factor of safety; and the importance of market discipline, i.e.

In this way, they will contribute not only to the stable functioning of the institutions for which they are responsible, but also to that of the financial system as a whole. The inclusion as from last year of a chapter dealing with management aspects of the Banco de España allows me to be brief and to point out that in 2004 the branch restructuring plans, the staff renewal and redimensioning plan and the early retirement plan were completed and the negotiation of the 2002-04 collective bargaining agreement was finalised. All these reforms, which enable us to undertake appropriately our important mission and functions in the euro area, have been made possible by the effort and dedication of all the Bank’s staff, whom I thank for their attitude and their work. Finally, I express my gratitude to all the members of this Council for their inestimable support and collaboration. I would like to conclude by remembering two people whose untimely loss we suffered last year: Ángel Pardillos, who was one of the victims of the 11 March attacks, and Eugenio Domingo, who shared, at this table, many sessions of this Council, both before and after his term of office at the European Central Bank. Thank you. BIS Review 45/2005  13
With regard to legislation, I also believe that further supplementary measures will be needed in future. I will return to this later on. During the recent financial turbulence the Riksbank has not only had regular contacts with other authorities and the political system – we have also had closer contacts with market participants than usual. Central banks around the world have also had close cooperation with regard to reducing the strains in the financial markets in various ways. So what have we at the Riksbank done to make the markets function better? Improving the functioning of the markets The Swedish banks have mainly experienced two problems. One has been the lack of access to more long-term funding in Swedish kronor. The other has been the limited possibilities to borrow in US dollars. As I mentioned earlier, it has been much more difficult and costly for the banks to obtain financing other than at very short maturities. The banks’ possibility to finance themselves is of course important to financial stability. It also affects other interest rates in the economy and thereby the impact of monetary policy. We at the Riksbank try to counteract these effects of the financial turmoil. We have therefore offered the banks financing – against collateral and at an interest rate – at longer durations than normal, and than what is currently available in the markets. We have so far granted loans in Swedish kronor at maturities of three months and six months to a total of SEK 203 billion.

When goods are transported to consumers via our physical infrastructure, such as the road network or by air, the payment for the product is sent to the end recipient by means of the “financial infrastructure”. If the financial infrastructure did not function, the economy would more or less grind to a halt. The financial system also makes it possible to manage various risks that can arise in the financial markets. This is important to both households and companies. Another important function is to be able to save and borrow money via the financial system. This gives households and companies the possibility to distribute incomes and consumption over time. The funds that are saved can be borrowed by companies and households to finance various investments which can then create employment and growth. When there is distrust and disturbances in the financial system, this function may be impaired, which can  BIS Review 138/2008  1  lead to a credit crunch. First the financial sector is affected, but then it gradually becomes more difficult for households and companies to borrow, too. Consumption and investment then decline, which can lead to a substantial economic downturn. A credit market that functions well is thus an important condition for good growth. To summarise, one can say that the financial system’s functions are very important for economic development. It is important that the system is stable for our society to function properly on the whole. But financial stability is something that most people probably often take for granted.
For sure, potential output estimates are chronically unreliable and often subject to substantial revisions ex post. Faced with the despair of failure, we often tend to underestimate our ability to overcome crises – a phenomenon I will return to in a minute. Moreover, recessions often tend to have a permanent effect on the level of potential output. It is much less clear, however, whether the crisis will also leave a permanent footprint on the trend 1/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  potential growth rate – something Laurence Ball called “super-hysteresis” effects. In fact, on the right-hand side of the first slide you can see that potential output growth had been slowing in the euro area well before the crisis, mainly reflecting a long-term slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP). So the question I would like to ask today is not so much why potential output growth appears to be decelerating in the long run, or whether we are entering a period of secular stagnation – the jury is still out on this. It is whether the crisis, and the persistent shortfall in aggregate demand, has accelerated, or not, the decline in potential growth. The first point to consider is whether the crisis has had a significant effect on labour participation – that is, the size of the total labour force. Hysteresis effects might be caused by unemployed workers becoming discouraged and discontinuing their search for employment, leading them to become detached from the workforce and lose their skills over time.

Both are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the franc. This is important given that the franc remains significantly overvalued. Our expansionary monetary policy is aimed at stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Our new conditional inflation forecast suggests that inflation will rise faster over the coming quarters than we predicted in March, principally due to the significant increase in oil prices in the intervening period. The effect of this oil price rise on annual inflation vanishes after the first quarter of 2017. The new conditional forecast moves closer to that of the last quarter from then on, and is in line with it from 2018. This forecast shows that our expectations for the medium-term development of inflation and the Swiss economy remain essentially unchanged. At –0.4%, our inflation forecast for the current year is 0.4 percentage points higher than in March. For 2017, we expect inflation to be 0.3%, somewhat higher than assumed in the previous quarter. For 2018, we continue to anticipate inflation of 0.9%. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor will remain at – 0.75% over the entire forecast horizon. Global economic outlook Since the assessment of the inflation and economic outlook for Switzerland is heavily influenced by economic developments abroad, let me now present our assessment of the global economy. The moderate recovery in the global economy is continuing, supported by ongoing highly expansionary monetary policy worldwide.
Let me start with an important one, the so-called “liquidity narrative 1” which sets up in order to knock down, and attributes to regulators, the view that the financial crisis (indeed crises more generally) was caused by a lack of liquidity rather than solvency in the banking system, and this blinded people, notably regulators, to the real cause of the problem, namely solvency and capital. Whatever happened in the past, it is most certainly not true today. Loss of liquidity is much more the symptom than the cause of crises, and while symptoms have to be observed, and some actions taken to minimise their effects, I am in no doubt that the cause is usually either an actual solvency problem or critically rising expectations that there will be such a problem in the future. If you spend time in the PRA, you would quickly learn that capital is front and centre in what we do as supervisors. Why is that so? Banks are different from other financial firms because they provide deposit contracts to their customers. A deposit is a very particular form of debt contract. For all of us the essential feature of a deposit contract is simple – we put our money (our asset) on deposit at a bank, and we expect all of it back, with whatever rate of return is agreed, and we expect to have access to it in line with the terms of the contract. Let’s contrast that with non-deposit debt (bonds) and equity contracts.

In addition, the euro zone has undergone tremendous changes in the institutional settings by the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism by the ECB, along with the Single Resolution Mechanism and other accompanied ongoing or upcoming reforms. Another area of reforms in the European Union was the strengthening of fiscal and macroeconomic policy through the Fiscal Compact and accompanying macroeconomic surveillance mechanism, aiming at sound public finances and preventing from macroeconomic imbalances. What urgently came to our knowledge during the last crisis was the importance of the financial stability for the overall macroeconomic stability, but also the so-called “doom loop” between banks and sovereign that emerged from this crisis, adding yet another specific experience that we should all be aware of in the future. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  On the recovery process and sustainable growth The data since mid of the last year and the forecast for this year are pointing to an upturn of the global economy, although it is still fragile and surrounded by risks. The economic recovery of the European Union is crucial for stronger revival of the region, considering the trade relations, although due to specific factors, countries in the region differ in terms of their position in the economic cycle. In 2013, the Macedonian economy grew by 3.1%, mainly driven by the strong net export and the strengthening of private consumption in line with curbing down of the unemployment.
6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6  Chart 5 Quoted spreads over risk-free rates on  Chart 6 Annual growth rates for mortgage  two-year fixed-rate mortgages  lending and nominal GDP  75% LTV 90% LTV 95% LTV  Percentage points  Mortgages  6  Per cent  20  Nominal GDP 5  15  4 10  3 2  5  1 0 0 -5  -1 2004 06  08  10  12  14  16  1994 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18  18  Sources: Bank of England, FCA Product Sales Database and Bank calculations. Sources: Bank of England and ONS. Notes: Spreads are taken relative to the risk-free rate of the same maturity. Dashed line is an estimate of historical 90% LTV spreads, which uses rates reported on new mortgages in the FCA Product Sales Database. Notes: Mortgage lending defined as twelve-month growth rate of total sterling net secured lending to individuals seasonally adjusted. Nominal GDP is gross domestic product at current prices seasonally adjusted. Chart 7 UK household debt to income ratio  Chart 8 Percentage of households with mortgage DSRs of 40% or greater  Other  BHPS / Understanding Society Survey  Per cent of disposable income  Consumer credit Mortgages Total (ex.

Thomas Jordan: Repercussions of the financial markets crisis in Switzerland Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Zuger Wirtschaftskammer, Zug, 28 April 2008. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The turbulence in the financial markets that began in August 2007 is having a generally negative impact on the Swiss economy and is spreading through different transmission channels. The downgraded growth prospects for the US economy are resulting in fewer imports from the rest of the world. Since net exports and the global economic developments are of particular importance for Switzerland, they are having a negative effect, which may be reinforced by the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Because of the major importance of banking in the industrial structure of the Swiss economy, falling turnover on the financial markets can also affect Switzerland more severely than other countries. Moreover, rising credit risk premiums result in higher financing costs for companies, and the deterioration in bank balance sheets could be an additional factor in compromising the availability of credit in Switzerland. Finally, the increase in commodity prices has had a significant impact on the inflation rate in Switzerland. Despite the fallout from the financial crisis, the outlook for Switzerland‘s economy remains good. In Europe – which is crucial for Switzerland – the economy will probably weaken only gradually.
I congratulate the Board, Senior Management team and the staff of INCOME, both past and present, for bringing INCOME to where it is today. 20. I wish you continued success in the years to come. BIS Review 163/2010  3

In Portugal, real GDP has started its recovery path, fiscal developments have been positive and the unemployment rate has started to fall. And consumer and business confidence has been on an upward trend for many months. A similar improvement in confidence has also occurred in other countries that had been affected by the crisis. Expectations regarding incomes and employment are steadily being upgraded. This is a sign that households and firms are starting to internalise the benefits of the reforms implemented so far. Looking ahead, the task of all euro area policymakers is to ensure that the improvement in confidence will be validated by actual outcomes. If implementation of structural reforms is pursued ambitiously and the reform momentum upheld, it seems likely that growth will surprise on the upside in the coming years. 3  See Varga J., J. in’t Ved (2013), The growth impact of structural reforms, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission Vol. 12/4, page 17–27. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7