samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
That could potentially create some turmoil for international markets including ours and in the process we could see some potential for dislocation which is why Sri Lanka has decided to reach out to multilateral agencies like the IMF and the World Bank to assist us in terms of sheltering or protecting the economy against any adverse developments that may occur in the near future as a consequence of any turmoil in international capital markets if and when US policy makers decide to raise interest rates. That is one hurdle we have to look at. The second hurdle I would say is the lack of a structural change the way international, particularly developed countries of the world, are managing their economic affairs. A lot of the changes that we have seen in the last 5 years has had to do with monetary policy and the aggressive easing of the monetary policy. But on the fiscal side, you haven’t seen any structural changes in countries like the United States and most European countries that took the world into the great recession in 2008 as a consequence of their housing  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  bubbles. That structural change in terms of improving productivity, reducing the size of social security programs and retooling their economies to become more productive has still not started and until that happens we don’t have a sustainable basis for global growth to grow apace.

Therefore, legislative action in targeted areas is warranted. While bold action towards the completion of the single rulebook for capital markets will be beneficial, a gradual approach to harmonization could be envisaged in those areas where political sensitivities prevent action at EU level in the short term. 4. Sufficient attention should be devoted to safeguarding financial stability, such as in the area of shadow banking. 5. A single rulebook for EU capital markets needs to be complemented with strengthened supervisory convergence, delivering a common implementation and enforcement of rules. 6. Further reducing still existing fragmentation in financial market infrastructures should be at the core of CMU. It needs to be recognized that banks will continue to play an important role for the financing of the real economy and in providing access to capital markets. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1
These actions, taken together, should vaccinate the economy and protect it from the more insidious disease of too low inflation. Thank you. 1 John C. Williams, The Research-Policy Nexus: ZLB, JMCB and FOMC, Remarks at the Conference Celebrating  the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, New York (May 31, 2019). 2 John C. Williams, The Economic Outlook: The ‘New Normal’ is Now, Remarks at The Economic Club of New  York, New York (March 6, 2019). 3 David Reifschneider and John C. Williams, Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era, Journal of  Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 32, Issue 4, pp. 936–66, November 2000. 4 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC Briefing. January 2002. 5 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  5 This discussion abstracts from balance sheet policies such as quantitative easing, which can make financial  conditions even more favorable to growth. See, for example, Ben S. Bernanke, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Brian P. Sack, Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, The Brookings Institution, Volume 35, No. 2, pp. 1–100, 2004. 6 Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams, What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence  from Derivatives Prices, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Report No. 865, August 2018. 7 John C. Williams, When the Facts Change..., Remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International  Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland (May 14, 2019).

Presentation of the 2018 annual report of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR) Press conference of 28 May 2019  Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, Chairman of the ACPR  Press contact: Mark Deen (mark.deen@banque-france.fr). Page 1 of 5  Ladies and Gentlemen, [Slide 1] I am pleased to welcome you to the presentation of the 2018 annual report of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR), alongside Bernard Delas, ViceChairman of the ACPR, Rémi Bouchez, President of the Sanctions Committee, and Edouard Fernandez-Bollo, Secretary General of the ACPR. In 2018, the women and men of the ACPR continued to work tirelessly to safeguard financial stability, in a context marked by the uncertainty – and at times the emergency – of Brexit. I would like to thank them for their work. This morning, I shall focus on a topical issue – the profitability of banks and insurers in France and Europe [slide 2]. **  I. The profitability of French banks and insurers remains resilient  The return on equity of France’s largest banks edged up by 0.4 percentage points to 6.7% in 2018,i coming back in line with 2015’s level. The maintenance of profitability levels needs to be viewed alongside the sharp rise in bank capital. French banks have strengthened their solvency and are now more robust. They have more than tripled their capital since the crisis.
Diagram 4  Cumulative change in employment 1960-96 T housands 100 10 00  Public employment  800 80 0  600 60 0  Total employment  400 40 0  200 20 0  0  Private employment  -200  -4 00 60  65  70  75  80  85  90  95  Source: Statistics S weden  The great challenge Sweden faces in the future development of employment is evident from Diagram 4, which shows that for a long time there has been no net increase in private sector jobs. This is the trend that must be broken. While there has certainly been some increase in employment in boom years, in the subsequent downturns virtually as many jobs have BIS Review 38/1997  -9-  disappeared. The overall increase in employment has come from an expansion of public sector jobs; one million jobs were created in this sector between 1960 and 1990. Now that, for various reasons, the political system has been obliged to arrest the public sector’s expansion, employment has also fallen.

2  “Principles for the sound management of operational risk”, BCBS 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  This systemic risk derives first from the dramatic development of interdependencies across financial intermediaries due to increased automation in financial activities, including in clearing and payment activities, which are a major vector of interconnection. The systemic risk also derives from the possible loss of confidence from the general public in electronic payments that would be triggered by a failure to protect the integrity and reliability of data processed by these payment systems. However, responses to cyber threats can conflict with other established priorities. This is particularly true for financial market infrastructures. For instance, the principle 17 of the CPSS-IOSCO on operational risk clearly states the business continuity requirements for financial market infrastructures. Business continuity plans should aim for the timely recovery of operations, resuming operations within two hours after disruption, and settlement should be ensured before the end of the day in extreme conditions. However, meeting this requirement is raising specific challenges in case of a cyber-attack or in case data is found to be corrupted, when the highest priority might no longer be a swift resumption of operations, but to first recover the quality and integrity of data in order to avoid any risk of contagion. This is also true for the access that could be granted to third parties for accessing online a payment account in order to assist in the initiation of payments.
This is an essential step towards their possible end later; a step that is justified by our confidence in the gradual convergence of inflation towards our target of 2% over the medium term: we consider the economic recovery in Europe to be “increasingly robust and broad-based". In parallel, we said that we will continue to ensure “ample” monetary support, rather than “very substantial” support as mentioned in our previous statements – thanks to the whole range of our instruments, including the sizeable stock of assets that we will continue to hold in line with our policy of reinvestment, and our forward guidance on interest rates. In this new paragraph, the Governing Council stresses an essential point that I have often referred to over these past few weeks: our non-standard monetary policy is not a solo – it is not simply about net monthly purchases, and we shouldn’t focus too much on them –; it is a group of instruments that we can play, by following a predictable sequence, as part of our gradual normalisation strategy. It is therefore important that insurers continue to adapt their business models to the low interest rate environment. In particular, I welcome the gradual moderation of interest rates paid out on life insurance contracts, which should be pursued in order to maintain, in the long run, insurers’ solvency and their ability to meet all their commitments vis-à-vis policyholders.

During time, the banking sector has increased the number of branches, has improved its products to the public and has increased its intermediating role to provide an important contribution in the economic development of the country. At the same time, the entrance of well-know European banking groups from Austria, Greece, Italy and France, has been associated with consolidation in the banking industry. As it is the case in the entire region, the banking sector dominates the financial sector in our country. Our supervisory work aims at adopting the best international standards in the field. As a result, our legal and regulatory framework is considered to be consistent in achieving our objective of a stable and sound development of the banking activity, and is continuously improved. From the practical aspect, we combine both regulatory and risk based supervision. BIS Review 43/2009  1  The data reported from the banking sector are analyzed off-site and verified on-site. We also try to stay in close contacts and cooperate with foreign supervisory authorities, as an important instrument in improving the effectiveness of the supervisory work. Nowadays, the assets of the banking sector represent around 87 percent of the country’s GDP. Loan portfolio has reached around 37 percent of GDP. Due to increasing competition after the privatization, its growth has been very strong in the last 4 years, albeit starting from a low base. Deposits represent around 80 percent of the banking sector liabilities, and the loan/deposit ratio stood at around 62 percent.
Florin Georgescu: Challenging the status quo in management and economics Opening remarks by Mr Florin Georgescu, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Romania, at the Strategica International Academic Conference "Challenging the Status Quo in Management and Economics", Bucharest, 11 October 2018. * * * Distinguished guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am glad to welcome you at the National Bank of Romania, as we host today the 6th edition of this prestigious international conference, together with the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, and the Romanian Academic Society of Management. The debates today will be held under a generous and timely topic: “Challenging the Status Quo in Management and Economics”. We couldn’t have a better moment to discuss challenges to the status quo than today, as we witness a whole range of economic, social and political forces pushing for change all over the world. If this change is in the sense of progress or not, that remains to be seen. I trust that your presentations and insights will shed more light on these trends. I confess that I had a look at the titles of the presentations in both days of the conference, and the word that appears most frequently in these titles is knowledge. And I realize that not less than 50 years ago, Peter Drucker, the philosopher and management guru, launched the concept of knowledge economy. Since then, economists and management specialists of all doctrines, put knowledge at the forefront of their views of the world.

These facts oblige us to realize that challenging the status quo means in the end challenging mentalities, both those of policymakers and of citizens. It is a very complex process, but we see it as an opportunity as well. We can transform education and awareness in very effective policy tools, to everybody’s benefit. We can surpass the objective limits of our policy actions, by making people more aware of these very objective limits. Bridging the knowledge gap can lead to more financial inclusion, to more access to finance, which is good news for banks, companies, citizens and public authorities alike. Ladies and gentlemen, My conclusion and my message for you, distinguished participants to this conference, and I do not want to sound old fashioned, is that we need research and economic analysis that is practical and can fill the real deficits of our society. And if you really want to challenge the status quo, my advice is to have in mind also the way your research will be disseminated and materialized in real life. On the other hand, let’s not forget to preserve what is valuable in the current establishment. As an old word of wisdom is saying, we need courage to change the things which should be changed, serenity to accept the things that cannot be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other. I wish you success with the debates! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  I am an optimist, and I am convinced that our country has the right institutions to help us out of these challenging times. Over the years we have combined our efforts to make reforms, that are deep and long-lasting. Actually, our country is recognized around the world, precisely for its strong institutions. The capacity of our leaders to reach agreements is proof of such strength and, therefore, we have appreciated the agreement led by the Finance minister, Congress representatives and political leaders around the tax reform. The question we must ask ourselves, putting aside our individual positions, is how we can all move forward to create a better country. Naturally, discrepancies will arise about the reasons for the slowdown. We believe, however, that a fruitful use for our time is to think about ways to reactivate our economy and, more importantly, how to boost growth into the medium to long term. Beware also with being over-optimistic or over-pessimistic. When things go well we see no limit and indulge in the we-are-so-good fantasy. But when the table turns we become pessimistic and see no possible solution. It’s neither this nor that. The country we have built, though not perfect, is an example among emerging economies. There is a long way ahead, but let us not underestimate what we have achieved. Mistrust will not bring the solution. The only way is to work hand in hand, which is what has brought us so many good results as a society.

Page 7  The views expressed in this speech are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would particularly like to thank Saba Alam, Andrew Bailey, Harvey Daniell, Swati Dhingra, Jonathan Haskell, Catherine Mann and Martin Seneca for helpful comments on earlier drafts of these remarks. The responsibility for all remaining errors is my own. Endnotes 1. Friedman, M. (1961). ‘The lag in effect of monetary policy,’ Journal of Political Economy 69(5), pp. 447-466. ↑ 2. Goodfriend, M. (1998). ‘Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy,’ Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 84(3), pp. 13-30. ↑ 3. In commenting on Capie et al. (1993) ‘The future of central banking: The tercentenary symposium of the Bank of England,’ former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan remarked: ‘Implicit in any monetary policy action or inaction is an expectation of how the future will unfold, that is, a forecast. There is no way to avoid making a forecast, explicitly or implicitly.’ ↑ 4. King, M. (2010). ‘Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy making – Art or science?’ Lecture at the Royal Society conference on “Handling Uncertainty in Science”, London, 22 March. ↑ 5. Evans, C., J. Fisher, F. Gourio and S. Krane (2015). ‘Risk management for monetary policy near the zero lower bound,’ Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring), pp. 141-196. ↑ 6. In December, on a seasonally adjusted, 3-month average on the same 3 months a year ago basis. ↑ 7. Churchman, C. (1967). ‘Wicked problems,’ Management Science 14(4), pp.
One reason for this is that after the Asian crisis and its repercussions, there is still unutilised capacity in the world economy. Another important factor is increased price competition. In addition, the pass-through from external price increases to prices in Sweden will be dampened by an appreciating krona. In our main scenario, moreover, the barrel price of crude oil is assumed to fall back from the present level around $ to just over $ The stronger international growth has also contributed to an upward revision of the Riksbank’s forecast for the domestic economy. Growth is now expected to be 3.6% this year, followed by 3.8% and 3.0% in 2000 and 2001. The upward revision also mirrors higher domestic demand growth. Firms as well as households are optimistic about the future. Real wages and employment are now rising rapidly and so is household income, particularly as fiscal policy is less restrictive. This is accompanied by rising corporate investment in the coming years. (Figure 2). BIS Review 111/1999  4  One component of the present picture that warrants the Riksbank’s attention is the development of asset prices. Share prices are high and a nationwide increase in house prices has started in the past year. House prices in Greater Stockholm, for example, had already risen substantially before that. This increases the consumption and investment propensities of households and firms.

The banking market in Hong Kong is of course a very international one, with a total of 182 licensed banks, 151 of which are incorporated outside Hong Kong. 81 of the largest 100 banks in the world are licensed in Hong Kong. Collectively they provide a wide range of banking and other financial services, not just for Hong Kong but for the region as a whole. The banking sector of Hong Kong is reputed to be amongst the most efficient and profitable in the world. 9. Hong Kong’s debt market, which has developed quite rapidly in the past eight years, is also playing a significant role in the region. Financial intermediation through the debt market is still relatively underdeveloped in the region, but the prospects are good. As the very substantial savings of the region is increasingly institutionalized through the establishment of provident funds and pension funds, the demand for debt securities would grow, perhaps much faster than that for banking and equity instruments. At the same time, the huge investments envisaged for the development of the physical infrastructure in the region will require much debt financing, thus increasing the supply of debt securities. With the first class infrastructure in our newly developed debt market, Hong Kong is in a very favourable position to take advantage of these good prospects. 10. Hong Kong’s equity market is of course one of the largest and most liquid in the world, and, notwithstanding recent volatility, is the favourite market for institutional investors and for those wishing to raise funds.
One of their papers published in the Journal of Economic Literature in March, 1996 under the title “The Standard Error of Regressions” has made the following eyeopening comment: “Such misuses of statistical significance appear to depend in part on a vintage effect, measured by date of Ph.D. conferral. The papers authored by Ph.D.s conferred between 1975 and 1979, when inexpensively generated t-tests first reached the masses, were considerably worse than the papers of others at making a distinction between economic and statistical significance. They used the word “significance” in ambiguous ways more often than did early or later Ph.D.s and they were less likely to separate statistical significance from other types of significance in the sections on scientific and policy implications” (p 111). The other findings of McCloskey and Ziliak are also startling. Of the 182 articles in the American Economic Review they have surveyed, 70 percent had not distinguished statistical significance from economic, policy or scientific significance. While they had referred to largeness of the estimators, 72 percent had not asked “how large was large?” At the same time, 59 percent had used the word “significance” in ambiguous ways. A more pronounced failure has been the non-reporting of descriptive statistics such as the means of the regression variables by 69 percent of the authors. (p 106). The problem with econometric studies is that the computations made by authors remain as a “black box” to ordinary readers.

Lim Hng Kiang: Trade links and business opportunities for Singapore Congratulatory remarks by Mr Lim Hng Kiang, Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Minister for Trade and Industry, at the Daiwa Securities Group 35th Anniversary, Singapore, 25 June 2007. *  *  *  Your Excellency Mr Takaaki Kojima, Ambassador of Japan to Singapore, Mr. Shigehara Suzuki, President & CEO Daiwa Securities Group Inc., Mr. Shin Yoshidome, President Daiwa Securities SMBC, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen. Good Evening, I am delighted to be here this evening for the joyous occasion of Daiwa Securities Group’s 35th anniversary in Singapore. This marks yet another important milestone for Daiwa, and your continued commitment to Singapore. Daiwa’s growth story in Singapore Set up in 1972, Daiwa has grown from strength to strength over the years. From the early collaboration in 1971 with Development Bank of Singapore to issue the first Asian Dollar Bond, Daiwa has over the years expanded to provide a full spectrum of financial services. Today, all of Daiwa’s major business units are represented in Singapore, covering securities brokerage, investment banking, asset management and more recently, wealth management as well. Singapore has also grown to become a key node in Daiwa’s overseas network, managing your business operations in South Asia & Oceania. I am encouraged to hear that on the occasion of Daiwa’s 35th anniversary celebrations, you have also announced plans to boost activities in Singapore and the region. I understand these new activities include M&A and private equity investments.