samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated some of these factors, amplifying the challenges that the world economy, and therefore the economic and monetary authorities, will now have to contend with. But beyond the impact on the global economic outlook, the war has struck the largest blow to the international economic order since the Second World War. This dramatic event has thrown into relief the need to reinvigorate and bolster the foundations of multilateralism, which are the set of rules and values that we have established to ensure peace and prosperity. But we should also view this as a chance to give fresh impetus to international cooperation, which has contributed so much to global progress in recent decades. Such impetus means strengthening the international institutions, many of  1  which date back to the mid-20th century, so that they can respond more effectively to the new crises, such as the global financial crisis and the pandemic crisis, which are more global in nature than the typically regional crises of past decades. International institutions should equip themselves, in their respective field of competence, with the appropriate tools to prevent and respond to systemic crises. In addition, the global nature of processes such as the green transition and digitalisation means these institutions must adapt in readiness to deal with these challenges and help attain the goals and fulfil the commitments we have set ourselves in these areas.

The agreement for a minimum corporate tax rate for multinational enterprises, spurred by the G20 with the OECD’s invaluable support and ratified by more than 130 countries that account for more the 90% of world GDP, is a good example of the benefits that international cooperation can generate in the digital era. Furthermore, supply issues, which have led to shortages and strains on prices during both the pandemic and now the war in Ukraine, strengthen the case for boosting international cooperation. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund concluded that these supply issues should not lead us to lessen our economic openness. On the contrary, its analyses point to the international diversification of imports and improved substitutability of the sources of inputs from different countries to boost value chains’ resilience. Signing new bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and strengthening pre-existing ones, which would afford greater certainty to trade relations while reducing their cost, would also help attain this goal. To conclude, I believe that, by sharing experiences and outlooks, fora such as this one help gain a deeper understanding of the challenges that we, the economic and monetary authorities, must face. I hope that you are able to benefit fully from the discussions held over the coming days and wish you a pleasant stay in Seville. 2
On the basis of these tenets, and within the framework of international co-ordination I have referred to, banking systems as internationalised, interdependent, liberalised, dynamic and complex as those at present require an increasingly less intrusive and more incentives-based form of regulation, along with more preventive supervision. To achieve such regulation and supervision we are, at the national and international levels, setting aside ever more resources. The relevance of all these matters has been duly reflected in the work of different groups at the international level, addressing the associated accounting, financial regulation and corporate governance facets. In the EU, we may mention the action envisaged under the Financial Services Action Plan, or the work of groups such as the High Level Group of Company Law Experts. And in the international domain we have the work of the International Accounting Standards Board. In Spain the Financial Law, currently under passage through Parliament, heralds many improvements, one of which is particularly significant for banking supervision. This is, namely, the possibility of considering as a breach of disciplinary rules the situation whereby a credit institution’s solvency and viability is jeopardised by administrative or accounting shortcomings or deficiencies in internal control procedures, including those relating to risk management. The methodology known as Supervision of Banking Activity under the Risk Approach, on which the Banco de España has been working, provides a framework suited to meeting the challenges posed to Spanish banking supervision by the aforementioned aspects.

Being the first winners of this competition also carries with it the responsibility for you to implement your business plan successfully and set a high standard for subsequent winners in the years to come. I thank you for your attention! BIS Review 103/2010  3
The participation of banks in the debt guarantee schemes is voluntary, and the very limited use of these guarantees may reflect a decline in the demand for credit and/or the desire of the banks to continue deleveraging their balance sheets. It is, however, important to ensure that other constraining factors are addressed, for example that the disincentives associated with the provision or pricing of these debt guarantees are promptly addressed, so as to help banks finance additional lending to the private sector. Possible further measures A relevant question is whether the tight financing conditions and the continuing stresses on the banking system require further measures by governments and central banks in order to help revive the extension of bank credit to the economy. The answer regarding the need and the nature of potential further measures depends on the causes or determinants of the prevailing financing conditions and on the structure of the financial system. To the extent that (i) financial market stresses, (ii) the deleveraging process, (iii) uncertainty about the economic outlook and about potential further bank losses, and (iv) low confidence impair the functioning of the credit and bank funding markets and the transmission of the effects of monetary policy, “non-standard” measures aimed at reducing funding uncertainty and enhancing the functioning of the credit market and, consequently, the monetary policy transmission mechanism, may represent possible courses of action.

This development is primarily demand-driven, fuelled by strong growth in the global economy, and in emerging market economies in particular. More recently, oil prices have increased further as political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East has led to uncertainty regarding future oil supply. Norwegian manufacturing industries are also benefiting from high commodity prices. Increased profitability for many firms and rising real disposable income may boost the demand for labour. With the prospect of continued high commodity prices and falling import prices, Norway’s terms of trade should hold up in the period ahead. BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  This, together with a tight labour market, may fuel wage growth. Looking ahead, cost inflation is most likely to edge up. On the other hand, high net immigration may have a dampening impact on wages. In 2010, the population rose by 62 000, an increase of 1.3 per cent. Low unemployment and a relatively high wage level have made the Norwegian labour market attractive to job seekers of foreign origin. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Going forward, continued high labour immigration is expected to result in solid growth in the labour force. At the same time, improved terms of trade will led to higher activity in the Norwegian economy. Capacity utilisation is expected to revert to a normal level in the second half of 2011. In the coming years, output in the mainland economy is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3–4 per cent.
It is therefore necessary to monitor competitiveness even more closely than before through indicators such as unit production costs and the tax and regulatory framework. The close multilateral surveillance and the frank discussions provided in the context, inter alia, of the Eurogroup, will help monitor competitiveness trends with a view to ensure early warnings and appropriate reactions. Let me address, in conclusion, two questions: the issue of sustainable growth and the present diagnosis of the Eurosystem as regards the balance of risks. Growth: Central bankers are sometimes portrayed as being excessively cautious and reserved with respect to economic growth. On the contrary, we are very much in favour of growth. First and foremost, because the objective of monetary policy—price stability—is a necessary condition for longst term, robust growth. At the press conference following the ECB Governing Council on 1 February, Wim DUISENBERG said very clearly on behalf of all of us that "within the euro area, the maintenance of price stability over the medium term (…) will provide an important contribution to the achievement of sustained non-inflationary economic growth and will also support a further solid and sustainable expansion of the world economy ”. Not only are we aiming at sustainable non-inflationary steady growth through our action but also via all our recommendations : we are resolutely anti-Malthusian in all fields of the economy, that is we support innovation, liberalisation and growth incentives. We are anti-Malthusian as regards scientific and technical progress.

Mario Draghi: ECB press conference – introductory statement Introductory statement by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, Nicosia, 5 March 2015. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference, here, in Nicosia. I would like to thank Governor Georghadji for her kind hospitality and to express our special gratitude to her staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the Governing Council. Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, and in line with our forward guidance, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. As regards nonstandard monetary policy measures, the focus is now on implementation. Following up on our decisions of 22 January 2015, we will, on 9 March 2015, start purchasing euro-denominated public sector securities in the secondary market. We will also continue purchasing asset-backed securities and covered bonds, which we started last year. As previously stated, the combined monthly purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to € billion. They are intended to be carried out until the end of September 2016 and will, in any case, be conducted until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Further information on certain implementation aspects of the public sector purchase programme will be released at 3.30 p.m. CET on the ECB’s website.
The impressive advances in technology that have enhanced the industry’s ability to collect and process large amounts of information in real time could hardly have been suspected 20 years ago. Collecting risk data across many business lines has catalysed further efforts to aggregate those measures of risk by quantifying them in a more rigorous and more consistent fashion. The “ultimate expression” of risk aggregation is the summation of many types of risk into a single measure based on the concept of economic capital, which estimates the amount of capital a firm requires to protect itself against these risks with a certain degree of confidence. Using the concept of economic capital, banks can develop sound policies for monitoring exposure limits, risk-adjusted pricing policies and sound provisioning practices based on the inherent risks of the portfolios. They can also measure returns and assign capital on a risk-adjusted basis. Likewise, the progressive widening and deepening of financial markets and the continuous creation of new assets has enlarged the menu of choices available for banks to manage, share and transfer risks. The Basel II process started, more than 6 years ago, against this background of increasingly sophisticated risk management practices, heightened complexity in the financial markets and stronger interaction between the real and the financial economy. Rather than simply resetting the quantitative standards, we sought to develop a new forward-looking approach that would be more sensitive to the actual risks that banks take on. The new framework is a significant step towards achieving a more comprehensive and risk-sensitive supervisory approach.

It seeks to provide banks with stronger incentives to employ the most advanced techniques to calculate risk exposures and, hence, to push risk-management towards the best available practices. Specifically, Basel II makes these general principles operative by building on three complementary pillars. The first pillar is intended to achieve a more precise and sensitive mapping between banks’ actual risks and the minimum regulatory capital requirements. Under the new framework, banks are allowed and, indeed, encouraged to rely on their own measures of certain risk parameters, thus fostering a wider usage of the best available techniques and tools for that purpose. The Committee firmly believes that a better alignment between regulatory and economic capital is conducive to a more efficient allocation of credit and a less distortionary regulatory system. The framework is also extended to operational risks, which have proved to be more relevant in an increasingly complex world that demands highly sophisticated processes. The second pillar, supervisory review, requires banks to assess their own capital needs for their overall risk profiles, including whether any activities or exposures may incorporate more risk – and hence may require more capital – than is assumed in Pillar 1. Supervisors, in turn, must evaluate the banks’ assessments and processes, and respond if these are not appropriate.
Thomas J Jordan: Systemic risk and regulation – managing the challenges Speech by Mr Thomas J Jordan, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the 5th Annual Meeting of the Swiss Finance Institute, Zurich, 3 November 2010. *  *  *  I would like to thank Dr. Claudia Strub, Till Ebner and Dr. Robert Bichsel for their valuable support in drafting this speech. Introduction The handling of systemic risk in financial systems is an immense challenge. First, because it is not always possible to pinpoint the precise sources of systemic risk due to complex interdependences in global financial markets. Second, because before the outbreak of a crisis it is almost impossible to identify which domino will be the first to fall and thereby bear the ultimate responsibility for causing the financial system suddenly to falter and even collapse. Finally, the impact of systemic risk can extend way beyond the system that is initially affected. When the financial system is close to collapse, the costs are enormous, as was clearly apparent in the latest financial and economic crisis. In my presentation today, I will talk to you about where we currently stand in our examination of the background to this latest crisis and how we can best address the diverse challenges in relation to systemic risk in the financial system.

However, irrespective of this fact, at this point I would like to stress how important it is that we use all the resources at our disposal to try and contain the effects of systemic crises or lessen the probability that such a crisis will occur, at the very least, even if we are unable to prevent crises altogether. First, systemic crises are enormously costly. Naturally, that alone does not justify state intervention. However, the legitimation for active state intervention can be derived from the fact that systemic risk gives rise to negative externalities, i.e. market failure, if it is not taken into account in the decision-making considerations of market participants. This means that the social costs of systemic crises are higher than the private costs. In the financial sector, this issue is particularly delicate, because of specific characteristics that can give rise to negative systemic externalities of the kind I have just described. 1 I will return to this important topic later in my presentation. Second, based on historic experience, I am convinced that both the magnitude of systemic risk and the probability that systemic crises will occur can actually be reduced through intelligent regulation. Sure, they can also be sharply increased by incorrect regulation or lack of regulation. Yet, improvement can be achieved even if it is not easy to identify the accumulation of systemic risk and even if regulation will never be perfect.
Rising commodity prices are an indicator of strengthening demand around the globe. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3    Higher energy prices likely to boost overall inflation in the near term. Whether energy and commodity prices raise inflationary levels for the medium term depends on the persistence of the commodity price rises.   Because commodity price changes have shown less persistence over the last 20 or more years, economists have seen little evidence of pass-through of higher commodity prices into underlying inflation (Chart 39). In the past, sustained rising prices for energy and commodities have been tempered over time by business and household adopting more energy-efficient practices, as well as investment in and adoption of substitute sources. Sixth, what does the market expect the Federal Reserve to do in the near-term? The last statement of the Federal Open Market Committee said:   The Committee…continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.   Current market expectations, inferred from the federal funds (overnight interest rate) futures curve, are that:      The Fed will purchase the full $ billion of Treasury securities by mid 2011.   The Fed will begin to raise the federal funds rate in the second half of 2011 (Chart 41). The Committee has stressed that policy is conditional on the performance of the economy.

The matters of economic policy that are up for EU discussions are also more specific than before. How is economic policy to be formulated? How can the labour market be made to function better? At the European Central Bank we have missed the train on which the participating central banks designed their monetary policy strategy and decided how the functions of the system of central banks are to be performed. If we join the monetary union in the future, influencing the procedures of the ECB and the formation of monetary policy will be more difficult. In the economic domain the European Union is also increasingly tending to establish joint European positions, for example on such matters as the crises in Russia and Brazil, the role of the IMF, etc. Here, too, I consider we are in a formative phase. Guidelines are now being drawn up for how Europe is to be represented on international bodies and in the work of developing a new international financial structure. The questions include the future status of the G7, G10, G33 and other informal groups. In these contexts we are now becoming rather isolated. Conclusion Now for a brief summary and some conclusions. EMU is a part of the effort that has been in progress for more than five decades to bring the countries of Europe closer together. Today the monetary union is perhaps the most important EU project and as a member of the Community we cannot disregard it.
The surveys are also useful in forming an assessment of the prospects for capital spending, as this is an area where statistical models are particularly poor – and I should know, having spent some of my formative years at the Treasury unsuccessfully trying to build econometric models to predict investment! Both the CBI and BCC surveys collect information on investment intentions, and it is also something we ask our Agents to take a view on, based on their contact interviews (see Chart 4). We look closely at this information when assessing the outlook for business investment. Other forward-looking questions can also prove valuable. For instance, at the current juncture, with CPI inflation well above our 2% target, we need to judge how much further it will rise and for how long that might persist. Past experience gives us some guide as to the speed at which higher commodity prices pass down the supply chain and the extent to which those movements are amplified or attenuated by movements in other costs and prices. But the questions on pricing intentions contained in the business surveys represent a valuable additional source of information on near-term inflation pressures. A third use of surveys is in helping the MPC diagnose the causes of recent developments. Here, the quarterly Industrial Trends survey stands out as particularly useful because it has a rich set of questions that explore companies concerns. For example, it has questions about the factors limiting investment, exports, and output.

Yves Mersch: Euro clearing - the open race Keynote speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Frankfurt Finance Summit, Frankfurt am Main, 29 May 2018. * * * During the 2008 financial crisis, counterparty risks became infamous. Obviously, every finance textbook deals with the risk that, when you enter into a financial contract, the other party may not fulfil their part of the agreement and may even default on their obligation. But the failure of Lehman Brothers and the large losses suffered by AIG in over-the-counter derivatives markets revealed that there were counterparty risks throughout the entire financial system. This was due to the domino effect of counterparty defaults in leveraged products. As a response, G20 leaders agreed at the 2009 summit in Pittsburgh to move all standardised derivatives contracts to clearing through central counterparties (or CCPs). CCPs address the weaknesses exposed during the crisis by insulating counterparties from each other’s default risk. They specialise in managing counterparty credit risk, and by doing so they reduce the risk of defaults spreading across the financial system. But CCPs can only make the financial system safer if they are safe themselves. In the European Union, they are subject to a comprehensive regulatory framework. The European Market Infrastructure Regulation (or EMIR) ensures that they hold robust resources to deal with financial distress.