samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As interest rates fall, household and local government consumption and investment tend to pick up. Higher demand leads to higher output and employment. Wage growth may pick up. Higher wage growth combined with higher profit margins will result in higher inflation. Lower interest rates normally also lead to a depreciation of the krone. Imported goods then become more expensive and inflation accelerates. Expectations play a key role in price and wage formation, and they are influenced by the interest rate. Expectations concerning inflation and economic stability have considerable impact, not least in the foreign exchange market. Petroleum activity constitutes an important part of the Norwegian economy. Oil gives us an economic base that is not available to many other countries. At the same time, the extent of, and fluctuations in, petroleum activity pose a challenge to economic policy in Norway. In a long-term perspective, Norway’s petroleum wealth is to be distributed across generations. In the short term, the substantial capital revenues from the petroleum sector must be managed in such a way that they do not amplify cyclical fluctuations. The Government Petroleum Fund was established in 1990 with a view to safeguarding long-term considerations in the use of petroleum revenues. The idea behind the Petroleum Fund is that the cash flow from an increase in oil prices should accrue to the Fund and be invested abroad so that the  BIS Review 67/2004  1  increase in oil prices does not affect the wider budget.

The effects of changes in the current account on net demand for the Norwegian krone can be illustrated by adjusting the basic balance for transfers and earnings to the Petroleum Fund and oil companies’ estimated cash surplus. Even though the current account surplus is increasing from 2003 to 2004 as a result of high oil prices, the adjusted basic balance is falling. In isolation, this is contributing to a decline in demand for the Norwegian krone. The decline is due to high import growth, which is reducing the current account surplus. In the Government’s budget proposal, the use of petroleum revenues remains virtually unchanged between 2004 and 2005. In spite of this, the krone exchange rate has appreciated recently. This reflects short-term capital inflows and may indicate that foreign exchange market operators expect that the use of petroleum revenues will increase in the years ahead. Themes in foreign exchange markets shift. In periods, investor focus on stock returns feeds through to exchange rate movements. During periods of political and economic unrest, investors may choose individual currencies as a safe haven - often the Swiss franc. In the autumn of 2002, the Norwegian krone was probably also perceived as a safe haven. In addition oil prices rose as a result of the uncertainty associated with the war in Iraq. Fluctuations between major currencies also affect the krone exchange rate. In recent weeks, investors have withdrawn from the US dollar and a number of currencies have appreciated.
As the economic recovery took hold, the deflationary risks diminished, notwithstanding the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Over the past few years, my Governing Board colleagues and I have repeatedly emphasised that the SNB does not pursue an exchange rate target, but consistently bases its monetary policy on its legal mandate. This mandate stipulates that the Swiss National Bank is required to ensure price stability, while taking due account of economic developments. The dreaded scenario of a deflationary dynamic could thus be avoided so far. Nonetheless, the appreciation of the Swiss franc that ensued obviously impaired the price competitiveness of Swiss exporters. However, the exchange rate is only one factor to affect exports. This raises the question as to which other factors were potentially beneficial for the development of Swiss goods exports in the most recent crisis. 3 To answer this question, I would now like to take a closer look at the structure and developments of Swiss goods exports in the last 20 years. I will concentrate on three factors in particular, namely the geographical, the sectoral and the qualitative dimensions of the Swiss export industry. 2. Swiss exports: developments and an international comparison  2.1  The geographical dimension  Geographically speaking, Switzerland’s export structure has become increasingly diversified over the last two decades.

Even the watchmaking industry – which, as a producer of luxury goods, suffered a massive drop in demand during the crisis – has seen a strong recovery in the last year thanks to the global turnaround. Accordingly, exports of watches are now only slightly below their pre-crisis level. 3. Conclusion  In closing, let me recap. The geographical orientation, the focus on products less sensitive to the business cycle, and the specialisation in top quality goods are the three factors likely to have mitigated the negative impact of the most recent financial and economic crisis on Swiss exports. On the whole, the Swiss export industry seems to be well positioned to compete successfully on a global level. Such a conclusion is reassuring, because major challenges still lie ahead. 17  For example, Credit Suisse (2006): Quality – The Export Industry’s Only Chance? BIS Review 157/2010  7  For instance, Switzerland’s increased focus on the Asian market also has its risks. A significant slowdown in Asia’s economic recovery – particularly in China – would undoubtedly impair Swiss export prospects. Needless to say, however, a renewed downturn in Europe – still Switzerland’s most important trading partner by far – would impact Swiss exports to a far greater extent. Furthermore, current exchange rate developments pose a major challenge for Swiss exporters. Since the onset of the financial crisis, the Swiss franc has appreciated in real terms by around 15%.
Assets that tend to be traded primarily by “buy-and-hold” investors may require greater warehousing of risk to facilitate the matching of trades at or close to prevailing market prices. By way of illustration, there is a sharp contrast between the frequency of trading in equities and corporate bonds. For example, McKinsey estimates that NYSE and NASDAQ-listed equities trade around 3800 times per day, compared to around 85 times per day and 65 times per day for the most liquid US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds respectively. Assets exposed to tail risks tend to exhibit larger price falls and become less liquid in times of stress. Examples of such assets include high yield/EME bonds, financial debt and OTC derivatives. Complex and/or opaque assets are less well understood and the risks can be more difficult to manage, so reducing the pool of potential buyers. Finally, assets with relatively news-insensitive cash flows like investment-grade corporate bonds may be less attractive to more active investors seeking to profit from information, but more attractive to buy-and-hold investors seeking predictable long-dated cash flows. And the related issue of how assets are traded matters. The costs of liquidity on order driven electronic platforms is much lower than in markets that depend on voice quotes from market makers. Against that backdrop, I’d like to make two observations. First, funding and monetary liquidity can exacerbate the illusion of market liquidity.

But I hope that increasingly there will be other things as well as regulation to talk about. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
They could, for instance, pay rent for children studying abroad, pay for a holiday home, or pay for services provided by European companies, e.g. mobile telephone services, insurance companies, utilities, etc. People who live, work or study outside their home country will no longer need one bank account at home and another one abroad. The use of payment cards will be more efficient, as consumers will be able to use the same card for all euro payments. This will reduce the necessity for people to carry cash. Innovative services can be offered to consumers irrespective of national borders. The long-term goal of the banking industry is that the SEPA payment instruments will only be used in electronic form. Payments can then be easily combined with other e-services in the case of both individual and corporate clients. These include e-invoicing, mobile or internet payment initiation, airline e-tickets, credit advice or e-reconciliation. As a consequence, consumers will spend less time handling payments. Everything will be easier, faster and cheaper ... in the long term. Payment cards are becoming a favourite payment instrument with consumers, and are increasingly replacing cheques and cash payments. The use of cards is thus expected to grow in the future. Thanks to the creation of a single euro payments area, acquirers will be able to process all SEPAcompliant card payments, even across borders. In the SEPA environment, merchants will be able to choose any card payment processing entity in the euro; this will increase competition and reduce costs.

To do that, it has involved not only the stakeholders in the euro area, but also those in other countries of the European Union, Poland obviously included, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Communities outside the euro area will thus have the opportunity to participate in euro payment systems, and will be able to adopt SEPA standards and practices, thereby contributing to the establishment of a single market for payment services. The EPC plans first SEPA products to come on the market at the beginning of the next year. Therefore, today’s Bank Forum is an excellent opportunity for an in-depth discussion on the role and place of the Polish payment infrastructure in the SEPA world. Ladies and Gentlemen, I am pleased to present you the discussants of our panel, in alphabetical order: Mr. Ryszard Drużyński, Vice President of Raiffeisen Bank Polska, Mr. Krzysztof Kalicki, President of the Management Board of Deutsche Bank Polska, Mr. Ronnie Richardson, President of the Management Board of Kredyt Bank, Mr. Witold Zieliński, Vice President of the Management Board of Citibank Handlowy. I would like this discussion to be broad and dynamic, that's why feel free to join it. First, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that changes ahead of us are needed to move towards a more integrated payments market, which will bring substantial economic benefits. The SEPA will not only introduce more comparable services, but will also foster competition and drive innovation.
12  Interpreting these trends is not straightforward. Household surveys may reflect consumers’ assessments of the most frequently purchased items, for example, rather than the whole CPI basket. And financial market measures reflect not only expectations about future inflation, but also investors’ required compensation for inflation risk – the inflation risk premium – and, in the UK, the wedge between CPI and RPI inflation rates. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  4. What if inflation is slow to return to target abroad? Protracted global weakness could heighten the challenge of returning inflation quickly to target in the UK. That’s because weak global conditions would tend to push down on the equilibrium interest rate that would maintain demand in line with supply and inflation at the target. This equilibrium rate has likely been falling for the last three decades and turned sharply negative in the downturn.13 This meant central banks had to turn to unconventional policy tools to stimulate their economies in order to return inflation to target. In the cases of the UK and the US, these measures have been effective in supporting domestically generated inflation. Although the equilibrium rate might be turning positive in the UK as domestic headwinds have abated, it’s likely still to be negative in many countries, reflecting an excess of saving over investment, in particular in the euro area.

BIS Review 28/2007  7  The experience of previous business cycles has shown that wage and price inflation may increase markedly in a late phase of the upturn. Higher interest rates will counter such a development. However, we must also prevent inflation from becoming entrenched well below 2.5 per cent. We will therefore be mindful of the effects of higher interest rates on the krone exchange rate when inflation is low. Positive supply-side conditions that have held down inflation so far suggest a gradual approach, so that we can assess the effects of interest rate increases and other new information on economic developments. At the meeting on 15 March, Norges Bank’s Executive Board presented the interest rate path shown in the chart. The Board decided that the key policy rate should lie in the interval 4-5 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Monetary Policy Report on 27 June, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with projections. Furthermore, the key policy rate is expected to move up to about 5 per cent around the end of 2007. Economic developments are uncertain. The uncertainty surrounding the interest rate ahead is illustrated by the shaded area in the chart, which is intended to capture the outcome with a 70 per cent probability. Long-term interest rates, income growth and house prices Favourable economic developments in Norway have had an impact on developments in our property markets. House prices have risen sharply over the past 14 years.
This will involve: 1.  enhancing the timeliness, completeness and consistency of the quarterly euro area accounts, so that they become available within 90 days of the end of the reference period;  2.  compiling more accurate, frequent and timely statistics on assets and liabilities of investment funds from early next year (based on an ECB Regulation adopted in July 2007);  3.  compiling frequent, timely and harmonised statistics on insurance corporations and pension funds, which will become increasingly important in our ageing society;  4.  compiling comprehensive statistics on the securitisation of bank loans and the financial vehicle corporations which handle these securitisations, as well as improving the measurement of credit risk transfers, including credit default swaps, in close cooperation with bank supervisors;  5.  enhancing statistics on bank credit lines, bank balance sheets and interest rates on deposits and loans, for instance by gaining more insight into loan collateral; and  6.  looking at user requirements for micro-data, for example for household consumption and finance.

And this month marks just one year to go to our first key milestone on this journey: to move to the global standard for financial messaging in payments, ISO 20022 (on a like-for-like basis), in June 2022 for CHAPS. We will transition to enhanced ISO 20022 messaging in February 2023. And in September 2023, introduce a state-of-the-art core settlement engine: the heartbeat of the new RTGS service, and of the UK’s financial system. To achieve our milestones and to realise the benefits of RTGS renewal, we – and I mean all of us here today and the payments industry as a whole – must work together to be ready. We must turn excitement into action, following in the footsteps of our Neolithic predecessors to build an infrastructure for the future. An infrastructure that supports the needs of industry, the needs of their customers, and crucially the needs of the end users. The criticality and evolution of payments Payments sit at the heart of the financial system, and whilst the methods and nature of transactions have progressed considerably since the days of barley bartering, their importance has not faltered. Within the UK, payments are a crucial part of everyday life and the past decade especially has seen a transformation in how people pay for goods and services.
Although the latest statement by the Federal Reserve has attenuated the possibility of drastic changes, the risk is still present. On the other hand, there is the situation some emerging markets are enduring, where the macroeconomic scenario could be further complicated if their commodities continue to trade at low prices. This risk is most important for Latin America, as it compounds with complex economic and political factors. Furthermore, in several countries in the region, fiscal and current-account deficits persist, making the necessary adjustments more difficult and costly. This is not the case of Chile, where the policy framework has allowed for a timely macroeconomic adjustment in the last year and a half. And let’s not forget the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and parts of Europe, with which we have sadly lived for quite some time. In Europe, there is the Greek situation and the quirks that have characterized the agreements to finance the debt. On the positive side of risks, it could also happen that the recovery is stronger in the Eurozone, which could mean a stronger boost to the world economy and Chile. In addition, it is possible that the effects of the drop in the oil price is larger than projected and also that this price remains low for longer. Finally, there is still the risk associated to lower growth in China and its consequences on the price of copper. The state of the Chinese financial system and real estate sector continue to draw the most attention.

It also serves as an antidote to groupthink. These may be baby steps but they are, I hope, steps in the right direction. 65  Deloitte University Press (2013). 66  Please see the One Bank Research Agenda, available here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/documents/onebank/discussion.pdf. The full discussion paper is available here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/documents/onebank/discussion.pdf. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  (b)  Experiential diversity  A related, but distinct, dimension to diversity is the background and experience of individuals. Again, this is multi-faceted. One dimension which has attracted some attention recently is the socio-economic status of individuals. That has been found to have a striking impact on levels of educational attainment, employment and income prospects, independent of ability. Here, the seeds appear to be sown early in childhood. Studies have looked at the educational evolution of sets of children from different socio-economic backgrounds over time. Parental income and wealth has been found to be a key, if not the key, determinant of a child’s educational progression. 67 Indeed, these socio-economic effects are sufficiently large that they may dwarf factors such as a child’s cognitive ability. 68 For example, imagine testing the cognitive ability of children when two years old. How does socio-economic status then affect their educational progression? Some studies have found that a low-ability child from a high-status group will exhibit higher levels of attainment by the age of six than a high-ability child from a low-status group. 69 And, thereafter, the differences begin to widen further.
Lars Nyberg: The framework of modern central banking Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Conference on Reforming the State Bank of Vietnam, Hanoi, 21 March 2006. *  *  *  Thank you for inviting me to this conference on reforming the State Bank of Vietnam. I imagine that one reason why I have been invited here is that the central bank I represent, Sveriges Riksbank in Sweden, just over a decade ago was in a situation which resembles the one the State Bank of Vietnam is experiencing now. At that time we had reached a situation where there were strong reasons – if not imperative ones – for reconsidering the way in which we used to think about monetary policy. It became clear that a reform of monetary policy and its framework was both desirable and necessary. Of course, Sweden is by no means the only country where monetary policy has undergone major changes in recent times. The view of how best to conduct monetary policy has changed fairly radically over the past twenty years and this has been reflected in a more or less worldwide reform process. What I hope to be able to contribute here today – as an introduction to the discussions – is to provide an overall picture of the ideas that formed the basis for this process and to describe what are today considered to be the guiding principles for a modern central bank, according to established research and practical experiences.

The data processing power of the computer allowed the industry to design new products, scale up operations and increase efficiency. Fast forward to today, we are at the brink of another great technological revolution and disruption. Artificial intelligence, big data and robotics will reshape the way we live, work and play. In many ways, the industry is in a prime position to seize the opportunities arising from these technologies given that the ability to manage risks remains the single most compelling proposition of insurance. For example, e-hailing services have become part and parcel of modern life. Many of the drivers do not benefit from generic motor insurance products. Perhaps usage-based or pay-as-you-drive insurance policies would be better suited for these consumers. Technology such as telematics could also be adopted to incentivise drivers to good behaviour. Artificial intelligence and blockchain can be utilised to enhance the efficiency of the claims settlement process. As a service industry, it is important for insurance companies to address the user experience. From our extensive engagements with the public, many Malaysians still find purchasing insurance too much of a hassle. Products are perceived to be too convoluted, complicated and non-transparent. We are taking this very seriously, particularly given the measures we have taken to encourage the use of plain language coupled with clear and concise disclosures. 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Clearly, these measures have not had the desired effect. There is an urgent need for the industry to design a more positive customer experience.