samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Overall the euro area banking system is now far more resilient: in terms of capital for instance, the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of significant euro area banking groups has risen from less than 7% in 2008 to more than 14% today. In this context, and within the banking union framework, we need to allow more cross-border bank mergers. These will enable banks to better shift savings across national borders towards where investment needs are. And obviously we should preserve and complete international financial regulation on both sides of the Atlantic. Cooperation on regulation has been a win-win game. Competition on regulation would be a destructive one. 3. How I see the future of the euro area: a call for action. This leads me to the question of the future of the euro area. Let me be blunt here: I see it as promising, if we act. Obviously there are challenges today, be they domestic – euroskepticism and unemployment – or global – uncertainty in the West (US and UK) as well as in the East. But I am convinced that the answer to the current challenges is not “less Europe”. Less Europe would be a mistake if we want to remain in control of our common destiny. That said, there is room for further improvement, for a “better Europe”. Twenty-five years ago, we spoke of an “Economic and Monetary Union”. Since then, we have made a success of Monetary Union, but we have not been very effective with regard to Economic Union.

The crisis, besides all else, evoked negative public attitudes in relation to banks. Although not a lev of Bulgarian taxpayers has been spent to bail out banks and it would be unfair to place the Bulgarian banks next to those that continue to receive capital support from many governments and central banks, we should be aware of such attitudes. A short list runs like this: “… banks are the ones to blame for the crisis; besides they do not show commitment to the problems of businesses during these hard times”; “… interest rates and taxes in Bulgaria are high”; “… banks enjoy regulatory comfort,” etc, etc. 2  BIS Review 169/2010  Have we got sufficient evidence to expect that such attitudes will dissipate any time soon? And what is our response? There is more than just one side to this problem, because the majority of the population lacks a basic financial knowledge. Others are not responsible enough in managing their own money. I agree with you when you feel indignation at the lack of objectivity in much of the criticism against commercial banks. But we can’t change people. The important thing is to do anything we possibly can to give our clients the maximum correctness. You could step in and play an important role by streamlining your business practices with regard to servicing clients. “He who works, makes mistakes” Mistakes however should be owned and rectified in a prompt manner.
This differs from the natural rate when macroeconomic shocks affect the rate of inflation corresponding to any degree of excess demand in the labour market. Since the NAIRU represents the current reduced-form relationship between inflation and unemployment, it is possible to calculate the prospects for inflation without any need to refer to such a variable as the NAIRU. It is a convenient shorthand concept for purposes of exposition, but not a necessary tool for operational decisions on interest rates. Second, the contribution of monetary policy to employment objectives is to promote economic stability in its broadest sense. I referred at the outset to Keynes’ view that the “triple evils” of an unequal distribution of income, instability of expectations and unemployment were all related to an unstable and unpredictable monetary standard. The solution, Keynes suggested, was to set monetary policy to hit a target for prices, or a low and stable inflation rate. He argued 75 years ago that monetary policy should be devoted to regulating the supply of money so that “the index number of prices will never move far from a fixed point”. Keynes went on to say that: “The Bank of England since the war has always done exactly the opposite of what the latest science recommends. I conclude from this that their opposition comes, not from mere obstinacy BIS Review 103/1998  – 10 –  or conservatism, but from their not yet understanding the point.

Page 1  The cost of living - speech by Andrew Bailey Given at Brunswick Group’s Cost of Living Conference, Coin Street, London  Page 2  Published on 01 March 2023  Andrew Bailey shares what we learnt from talking to people at our outreach events across the UK during the past year. Speech The latest release of data for the UK consumer price index showed an annual increase of 10.1% in January. It is down from a peak of 11.1% in October, not least because direct effects from energy prices have eased. But also, core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of the consumer price index, fell more than expected to 5.8% in January. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee spends a lot of time poring over these data. Consumer price inflation remains much too high, and it is our job to bring it back down to our 2% target. That is why we have increased Bank Rate by nearly 4 percentage points over the past 15 months. To set the appropriate level of Bank Rate over the months ahead, we have to monitor our progress towards our target very carefully. But the data can only tell us so much. At times like these, more than ever, it is important to hear the human stories behind the data. These stories help us understand both what is actually going on and the impact it has on people’s lives.
Page 10  Annex Chart 1: Bulk Purchase Annuities (BPAs) and longevity swap transactions £ billion) since 2010  Source: Lane Clark & Peacock  Page 11  Chart 2: Projected bulk annuity demand  Source: Hymans Robertson – Risk Transfer Report 2022 Demand is expected to ramp up as the majority of over £ trillion of Defined Benefit liabilities looks to find a home in the insurance market over the next 20 or so years. Projected demand averages c. £ per annum over the next 10 years, compared to a record £ in 2019. Page 12  Chart 3: Assets held in insurance firms’ Matching Adjustment (MA) portfolios at year-end 2020 £ billion)  Source: PRA analysis of Matching Adjustment (MA) Asset & Liability Data submissions by firms as at year-end 2020. Page 13  Chart 4: Matching Adjustment (MA) benefit by asset class at year-end 2020 (basis points)  Source: PRA analysis of Matching Adjustment (MA) Asset & Liability Data submissions by firms as at year-end 2020. Ranked by spread in basis points (lowest to highest) and does not show asset classes where there are limited holdings across the industry. Page 14  Chart 5: Matching Adjustment (MA) versus Market Value  Source: PRA analysis of Matching Adjustment (MA) Asset & Liability Data submissions by firms as at year-end 2020. Note: Assets shown are those in Component A of insurance firms’ Matching Adjustment (MA) portfolios only. See Paragraph 4.5 of Supervisory Statement 7/18 for further details. 1. Solvency II 2.

See John M. Hartwick (1977): “Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources”, American Economic Review, 67, December, pp. 972–974. 8  NOU (Official Norwegian Report) 1983:27 “Petroleumsvirksomhetens framtid” [The future of petroleum activity], p. 90. 9  See Ministry of Finance calculations (Norwegian only): http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/fin/tema/norsk_ okonomi/bruk-av-oljepenger-/hvor-mye-oljepenger-har-vi-brukt-sa-lang.html?id=450461  10  Torstein Bye, Ådne Cappelen, Torbjørn Eika, Eystein Gjelsvik and Øystein Olsen (1994): “Noen konsekvenser av petroleumsvirksomheten for norsk økonomi” [Some of the consequences of petroleum activity for the Norwegian economy], Statistics Norway Rapporter 94/1, p.36 (Norwegian only). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  It may be that the oil fund has exceeded a critical value so that the ambition of a perpetual fund will be achieved. But history remains to be written. The story of John Collett might also have been written with a different pen when his wealth was at its peak. Within a few years, as much as 15–20 per cent of the welfare state could be financed by the return on the oil fund. But if we squander the capital in the fund, we will either have to match the shortfall with tax increases or make substantial cuts in government welfare. The gains – not only the costs – of building up an oil fund have thus been made visible. This also attracts its defenders. Large fortunes nevertheless give rise to concerns. As a minimum requirement, the management of oil wealth must not impair the productivity of labour and real capital.
Another is the alternative scenarios for the development of the economy that we describe in our Monetary Policy Reports to highlight the most important uncertainty factors we see ahead of us. These scenarios enable us to show in an easy-tounderstand and coherent manner how a particular development might affect monetary policy and our forecasts in general. None of this would have been possible without the developments in working methods, particularly in the field of modelling, that have taken place in recent years. These have created an entirely new flexibility and new opportunities in our methods of working and communicating. Technological advances and better tools create new opportunities When we make our forecasts for developments in the economy, we have a number of different tools at our disposal. We have the assessments made by experts in the different fields. We also have economic theories, past developments and various models on which to base our analysis. All of these components are important and they complement one another. Previously, we were often more or less forced to rely to a great extent on assessments rather on the more formal analysis. This provided some restraints. Now we have the technical possibility to make model-based forecasts for the economy that are coherent and based on different factors and markets being mutually dependent. If a particular variable changes, the entire system is adapted in the model simultaneously with the change. Perhaps our most important tool in this field is the general equilibrium model known as RAMSES.

Michael C Bonello: The Maltese lira Interview with Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, by The Malta Business Weekly, 9 December 2004. *  *  *  I must first of all point out that decisions regarding the external value of the Maltese lira can only be taken by the Minister of Finance on the recommendation of the Central Bank of Malta and with the consent of the Prime Minister. Decisions on such a complex, technical issue can have far-reaching economic and social implications and are understandably not taken lightly. They must, for that same reason, be made on the basis of facts not supposition. Having said that, I must make it equally clear that at this point in time the Bank cannot responsibly make a recommendation in this sense for the simple reason that it has no conclusive evidence that such a change is warranted, still less that it would deliver the expected benefits. Nor is the Bank aware that anybody else has made a credible case for changing the value of the currency. The conclusions of the Bank’s study on the equilibrium exchange rate have been shared with several local and foreign experts, including the IMF mission that was in Malta last May.
The further development of our financial centre will depend on whether we succeed in continuing to guarantee the attributes mentioned earlier on: integrity, stability and quality. This requires efforts both on an individual and on an overall economic level. A sustained commitment in both spheres will permit existing opportunities to be used. BIS Review 106/1999  6

On the basis of the discussions at this conference, I draw the conclusion that there is no disagreement in the economics profession on this central tenet, but a  BIS Review 110/2006  1  lot of different views on how to organise the monetary analysis so that it has an appropriate influence on interest rate decisions. And this is the second issue mentioned at the opening of the conference. As was pointed out by Prof. Christiano and his co-authors Rostagno and Motto, including informational asymmetries, transactions costs and financial frictions in “state-of-the-art” macroeconomic models allows to better reflect the role of money and credit aggregates within such frameworks. I found compelling the argument that monetary analysis be used to monitor (and possibly offset) macroeconomic risks which are not related to price stability at shorter horizons, but which may nevertheless have important consequences for maintaining price stability over the medium and long run, like risks to financial stability. On this point in particular Lucas Papademos’ remarks yesterday evening were particularly stimulating. Although the use of such models for policy purposes is in its infancy, their further development is a promising way forward and should, therefore, remain an important field of ongoing research. However, at present the practical challenge of conducting the monetary analysis requires the adoption and employment of practical and fully operational tools. Conducting such an analysis has not always proven to be an easy task.
The models within each class may contain different variables or be variants of one another. For a detailed discussion, see Aastveit, K.A, K. Gerdrup, A.S. Jore (2011) “Short-term forecasting of GDP and inflation in real time: Norges Bank’s system for averaging models”, Staff Memo 9/2011, Norges Bank  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  subsequent round. The Bank has a similar system including almost 250 models for forecasting mainland GDP. The projections from these systems of models extend four quarters ahead in time and are published at regular intervals on the Bank’s website. We call this apparatus SAM (System for Averaging Models). For projections with slightly longer horizons, the Bank parts company with weather forecasters. While meteorologists are unlikely to influence the weather with their predictions, Norges Bank’s interest rate setting can actually influence economic developments in the medium term. This places particular demands on the system of analysis and involves other demands than if the sole purpose were to make forecasts. Norges Bank has developed the Norwegian Economy Model (NEMO), which we use as an aid when drawing up one-yearahead to four-year-ahead forecasts. NEMO is a model for analysing fluctuations in the Norwegian economy around a long-term trend. In the medium term, the economy may in periods deviate substantially from trend, referred to as cyclical fluctuations. When the fluctuations subside, we must assume that the economy is moving towards equilibrium. The long-term trend is not determined by monetary policy, but by assumptions regarding technological developments and the supply of labour and capital.

A further reason for tackling the problem at its roots is that the inefficient use of resources in the public sector can have serious long-term repercussions. At best, these include a growth rate below the economy’s potential because the private sector is deprived of resources it could use more profitability; and, because of the persistence of the deficit, the loss of fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical stabilisation mechanism. At worst, the inefficient use of resources can threaten the viability of the economy itself. Many a financial crisis has been sparked off by the behaviour of profligate and inefficient governments. In today’s globalized financial markets, the retribution for such excesses is quick and unforgiving. Implications for fiscal management It would appear that, like all human endeavours, the benevolent, interventionist role of governments was developed with the best of intentions but, as often happens, something went wrong along the way. Judging by the present state of its public finances, Malta is no exception. For a start, fiscal deficits have become a permanent feature of the economic landscape, which suggests that they do not reflect temporary slippages or cyclical downturns, but rather fundamental policy choices and inefficiencies. Since 1990 the annual shortfall between revenue and expenditure has averaged 6% of GDP, or Lm1 out of every Lm16 earned by the economy.1 There were periods when the deficit tended to fall, but these were not sustained.
Jaime Caruana: Overview of the Spanish economy in 2005 Address by Mr Jaime Caruana, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to the Governing Council of the Bank of Spain on the occasion of the presentation of the Annual Report 2005, Madrid, 15 June 2006. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, The vigour of the world economy in 2005 confirmed that the current expansionary phase is proving one of the most dynamic of recent decades. In the past few years, average growth rates not seen since the late seventies have been attained. There are two particularly notable facets to this expansion. First, unlike in previous booms, the world economy has benefited from the salient contribution of the emerging economies. And further, this high growth rate has been accompanied by very moderate inflation rates, a most significant development in the light of their concurrence with a marked and persistent rise in oil prices. The vagaries of oil prices have, indeed, been central to international economic developments in recent years. The momentum of worldwide demand for energy, combined with its slowly expanding supply which is, moreover, fairly volatile owing to geopolitical tensions and climate-related shocks, pushed oil prices up throughout 2005 and the opening months of 2006 to an all-time high in early May. In turn, other commodities, including most notably industrial metals, have risen substantially.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Launch of the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) Malaysia Bond Index Fund Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the launching of the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) Malaysia Bond Index Fund, Kuala Lumpur, 18 July 2005. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen, The "Exchange Traded Fund" is a significant and highly successful product of financial innovation that is found in more developed financial markets. First introduced in Canada in the early 1990's, the use of Exchange Traded Funds gathered momentum after the listing of the S&P Depository Receipts Trust Series 1 (also known as "Spiders") on the American Stock Exchange in 1993. Since then, the Exchange Traded Funds have grown tremendously and there are currently a total of 350 such funds on the global exchanges with about USD313 billion in assets, comprising not only stocks and bonds but also currencies and commodities. Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my great pleasure to be here today at this ceremony of the inaugural listing of the ABF Malaysian Bond Index Fund, the first Exchange Traded Fund in Malaysia. In the EMEAP region, (the East Asia Pacific region) the ABF Malaysian Bond Index Fund represents the second country sub-fund to be launched, following the successful listing of the ABF Hong Kong Bond Index Fund on 21 June 2005. Six other EMEAP country sub-funds will be launched in due course.
Its objective was to identify issues of legal uncertainty which might give rise to material risks, and to consider how such issues might best be addressed. The Committee seeks to meet this objective, first, via liaison with industry and market participants to identify those areas of legal uncertainty with potentially adverse impacts, and, second, by working with market experts to propose solutions. One area in which the FMLC has been active in recent years is in encouraging the development of a smoothly functioning legal framework for cross-border transfers of intermediated securities. In 2005, the Committee undertook a thorough analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of harmonisation of the private international law in this area, as reflected in the Hague Convention. It was, and still is, widely accepted that such harmonisation would contribute to legal certainty by facilitating a clear identification of the law governing the holding and transfer of indirectly-held securities. This is  BIS Review 77/2007  7  particularly important in the context of the cross-border use of collateral: a key element of banks’ global liquidity management strategies. Early in 2006, the FMLC published a paper that undertook a full analysis of the Convention and expressed strong support for its central propositions. The FMLC’s work in this (and other) areas has been well received and has contributed to the decisionmaking process for government at the national and supra17 national level. Indeed, overall, the Committee has had some notable successes in addressing and ameliorating legal uncertainty in the financial markets context.

Market failures in infrastructure provision and single points of failure It is instructive to consider why providers of the market infrastructure and their members might, left to their own devices, invest too little in resilience and risk-mitigation. The answer lies in the microeconomics of infrastructure provision, and, in particular, the presence of market characteristics such as network externalities, increasing returns to scale and coordination failures. By network externality, I refer to the incremental benefit derived by existing owners of a particular good or service when another party purchases that good or service. For instance, the broader the participation in a particular exchange or trading facility, the more extensive the trading opportunities and the deeper the liquidity; as a result, the greater the potential benefits from membership of that exchange. Equally, in the case of post-trade infrastructure – clearing and settlement systems – the greater the volume of transactions cleared or settled, the greater the potential for netting exposures and/or cash-flows (or in gross payment and settlement systems, the more efficiently liquidity can be recycled). BIS Review 77/2007  3  Increasing returns to scale reflect the fact that infrastructure provision is, by and large, a fixed-cost business: once an investment has been made in the information technology supporting the trade, clearing or settlement of a given volume of transactions, the marginal cost of each transaction up to the capacity of the system is very low.