samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Finally, problems on the financial markets resulted in a significant drop in stock market transactions. This had a negative impact on added value in the banking sector. However, the slowdown in production did not spread to all sectors of activity. Growth remained strong in the retail and wholesale business, the hotel and catering trade and the transportation and communication industries. This shows that domestic demand remains – on the whole – robust. With the first few months of 2008 seeing a steady flow of new jobs, the favourable climate on the job market continues to be conducive to private consumption in particular. Further growth in demand and production is likely over the next few quarters, albeit at a more modest pace. High prices for oil products and uncertainty related to the US real estate crisis will undoubtedly continue to hamper economic activity. However, growth in household consumption and equipment investment looks set to continue. The SNB continues to forecast GDP growth of between 1.5% and 2% for 2008. However, this average annual growth rate is boosted by the strong growth achieved in the second half of 2007. It therefore conceals what has been a noticeable slowdown in economic activity, with quarterly rates below potential throughout the rest of the year. Changes in the monetary and financial framework How have monetary conditions evolved since our last assessment in March? They have become somewhat more relaxed. This is mainly attributable to two factors.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Recent economic and financial developments in Switzerland Introductory remarks by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the half yearly media news conference, Geneva, 19 June 2008. *  *  *  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is leaving the target range for the Swiss franc three-month Libor unchanged at 2.25-3.25%. It intends to hold the rate in the middle of the target range for the time being. Despite a slowdown in economic activity, the global economy remains robust and the price of oil has continued to climb. This has led to a general increase in inflation. The situation on the financial markets is still uncertain, but less turbulent than it was a few months ago. Although the Swiss economy has also grown at a slower pace, the SNB has not changed its forecast of real GDP growth of between 1.5% and 2% for 2008. However, it has increased its inflation forecast and is now expecting an average rate of 2.7% in 2008. Nevertheless, assuming that the Libor remains unchanged at 2.75%, inflation should edge back down to 1.7% in 2009 and 1.3% in 2010, as a result of the expected economic downturn. Considerable risks are attached to this inflation forecast. Stronger price increases are likely, should energy prices rise again or the Swiss franc depreciate on the foreign exchange market.
Ardian Fullani: Recent regulatory amendments in Albania – causes and expectations Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the forum with the Albanian banking system on “Recent regulatory amendments: causes and expectations”, Tirana, 28 February 2014. *  *  *  Dear bank executives, Dear participants, I would like to welcome you to this discussion forum between the Bank of Albania and the banking system. The topic of discussion for this roundtable is to inform you on the recent decisions of the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania in more details. We are on the last day of the second month of 2014 and we are all witnessing an intensive period of discussion and suggestions between Albanian authorities on the one side and international institutions on the other. Recovery of economic activity, potential structural reforms, lending to the economy, and financial soundness have been at the core of the discussions. Taking into account its role and significance in decision-making, the Bank of Albania has been an important part of them, materialising its contribution with a number of decisions relating to both macroeconomic and banking supervision. Following, I would like to share with you in brief the reasons, expectations and the way we will monitor this decision-making. 1. Decision-making on monetary policy and money market operations  As we have constantly informed, the Albanian economy is facing cyclical weakness.

On that basis, it was possible to build a whole architecture of asset prices, whose relative riskiness is determined according to the intrinsic characteristics of assets and investors’ risk appetite. The important word here is “relative”. To price financial assets, markets need a basis – a risk free rate. That basis has now been shaken. Immediate consequences seem benign in the US. Markets have judged, and rightly so, in my view, that there is currently no alternative to US debt as the most liquid market and it remains the ultimate benchmark for assessing risk. So, if anything, the downgrade of US debt was followed by new inflows into Treasuries and a decrease in US interest rates across the yield curve. At the same time, however, a pervasive uncertainty has been created, which might be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  responsible for the strong decline in confidence and equity prices that has occurred over the last weeks. In Europe, of course, sovereign credit risk has had more immediate and dramatic consequences, with an abrupt increase in sovereign spreads for peripheral countries following the July 21st statement. It remains difficult to foresee how, in the longer run, markets will assess debt sustainability in different countries and jurisdictions. That assessment depends on a complex process, where, together with economic fundamentals, subjective probabilities, self-fulfilling beliefs and other influences play a major role. The certainty that debt would be paid in full strongly anchored market perceptions in the past.
The net banking system result for 2006 stood at a profit of ALL 7.45 billion, about 12.9 percent more than in 2005. Revenues from the principal activity (net income from interest) resulted to 31.2 percent more than in the previous year, reflecting the banking system orientation to activities of higher return and a rise in the overall volume of assets. At end of 2006, the net income from interests was 92.6 percent of the gross banking system incomes, compared to 84 percent at end of 2005. This indicator has recorded constant growth, particularly over three last years, reflecting the overall net income sustainability for the banking system. During 2006, the banking system assets grew by All 127.7 billion, or about ALL 57.6 billion more than the growth of assets noted in 2005. The main contribution to the growth of banking system assets was given by large banks, though their share in the market is downward. The estimates show that the lending activity concentration level is lower than that of assets and deposits concentration. The significant growth of lending has been associated with increased share of nonperforming loans portfolio, by about ALL 3.1 billion compared to end of 2005. The loans portfolio quality indicator, expressed as a ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans portfolio in gross terms, is estimated at 3.1 percent as at year-end, against 2.3 percent as at year-end 2005. The banking system capability of covering loss loans with capital has been downward, but still at good levels.

Let me now present another important issue in my speech, which has to do with one of the main legal responsibilities of the Bank of Albania, i.e., consumer price stability. 2. Inflation and monetary policy  Consumer goods price inflation over 2006 was generally within the Bank of Albania’s targeted range of 2 to 3 percent. Year-end recorded a 2.5 percent annual inflation rate. It was almost similar to the 2005 annual inflation rate of 2.4 percent. Inflationary pressures, though moderate, have been increasing over 2006. The average annual inflation rate amounted to  BIS Review 80/2007  3  2.7 percent during the second six-month period of the year, from 2.0 percent it was in the first half of the year. In general, the annual average inflation steadiness during the recent years, speaks for the inflation rate stability, in spite of the fluctuations in time and size of the factors that have conditioned the consumer price performance. Developments on the demand and supply side of the economy have been balanced, without creating premises for inflationary pressures. The fiscal policy has observed the programmed indicators on annual basis, stabilizing the impact of the public sector component on the aggregate demand. Also, the monetary policy has controlled liquidity conditions and interest rate developments, and has attended the exchange rate performance, monitoring through them the economic activity financial stimuli.
Beyond this, at a time when savers seem to be turning towards more liquid products, how can the industry cater for savers’ longer-term financing needs and for the financing requirements of other economic agents? Should these needs and requirements be taken into consideration in the way financial products are marketed? This will be the theme of our second session. III. Lastly, what role should regulators play? Regulators carefully monitor changes in household savings patterns and the marketing conditions of financial products. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The evolution of household savings decisions can impact the soundness of financial institutions. In fact, any sharp switch from one form of saving to another can potentially destabilise the financial system and therefore the economy as a whole. The same is true for badly calibrated financial products that can have negative consequences on the profitability of institutions, especially when the remuneration of the product clearly deviates from prevailing market interest rates. As regards product marketing, it is, I repeat, a key factor in consumer confidence, particularly with respect to longer-term investments which play such an important economic role. The ACP and the AMF will make sure that these longer-term investment opportunities are preserved and, in this context, the development of aggressive and abusive sales practices is not acceptable. More generally, we will ensure that credit institutions and insurance entities behave prudently in their quest to gather client resources and rigorously in their respect of consumer protection laws.

Employment developments were also influenced by substantial labour inflows from central Europe following EU enlargement in 2004. Strong growth in labour productivity is not due to any substantial increase in the real capital behind each hour worked, but is related to a considerably more efficient utilisation of labour and capital. In addition, growth in labour productivity reflected a marked fall in sickness absence in 2004. The national accounts show more moderate productivity growth in recent quarters. However, since the figures are provisional and can often be revised considerably, we should be cautious about reaching any conclusions. The strong rate of growth has only to a limited extent fed through to a higher rise in prices for consumer goods and services. The rise in prices has none the less accelerated in recent months. In August, the year-on-year rise in the CPI-ATE was 1.8 per cent. Underlying inflation has long been projected to be between 1½ and 2 per cent in the second half of this year. The year-on-year rise in the total consumer price index (CPI) has been just under ½ per cent in recent months. This is because electricity prices have been substantially lower this year than in 2006, when unusually high electricity prices due to low precipitation levels pushed up the year-on-year rise in the CPI close to the inflation target. In recent months, electricity prices have been at their lowest level since 2002.
In Europe, there would be little sense in giving a cheque to every household, which forms part of the US recovery plan. We do not have – fortunately, to my way of thinking – the same social model. Given the various social protection schemes in place in Europe, to which we can add forced saving during periods of lockdown, household demand should recover quite spontaneously. In terms of total demand, greater uncertainty remains around investment and external demand, particularly with regard to the time needed for the global economy to overcome the public health crisis. Supply from businesses could remain stymied in some sectors due to lasting loss of capacity (bankruptcies) and supply chain difficulties. This is therefore likely to require investment programmes and climate transition programmes that sustain demand while improving production capacity; and for that, priority will have to be given to financing joint initiatives at the European level , particularly given its higher "debt capacity". In this instance, our remedies for the crisis will be in step with our long-term priorities. At the national level, any initiatives to further education, professional training and more skilled employment will continue to be the best investment for growth: France had fortunately created one million extra jobs during the four years preceding the coronavirus shock; tomorrow, it will still be through our wealth-producing work that we will cover the price of this shock. 2/ How to treat the debts inherited from the crisis? Secondly, the question of public and private debt will arise.

The Exchange Rate Regulation of 6 May 1994 states that monetary policy in Norway should be aimed at maintaining a stable exchange rate in relation to European currencies over time. Norges Bank has defined “European currencies” as the euro. What we mean by a “stable exchange rate…. over time” needs to be made more precise. The krone exchange rate has fluctuated in recent years, in spite of Norges Bank’s active use of instruments, indicating that Norges Bank cannot fine-tune movements in the krone exchange rate. Thus, in its use of the interest rate Norges Bank focuses on the fundamental preconditions for stability of the krone exchange rate over time. Empirical work on the Norwegian economy suggests that there is mean reversion in the real exchange rate. This implies that higher inflation in Norway than among its trading partners tends to be followed by a nominal exchange rate depreciation. Thus, in order to stabilise the nominal exchange rate against the euro, monetary policy instruments must be oriented towards bringing inflation down to the level aimed at by the Eurosystem. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that a shock that leads to a change in the equilibrium real exchange rate occurs. Examples of such shocks are a large permanent shock to the oil price or a permanent increase in the government expenditure. If such shocks occur, Norges Bank must prevent monetary policy from contributing to higher inflation or a deflationary recession, since that would undermine the confidence in the krone.
9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  9  Equally important, utilising ML and AI to analyse the data could free up supervisors’ time to add the greatest value where humans excel over machines: judgement. That is why the Bank is today launching a Review to explore a transformation of the hosting and use of regulatory data over the next decade. This review will be conducted in close consultation with banks, insurers and financial market infrastructures. We are also embarking on proofs of concepts, in collaboration with firms and the tech sector, to test how we can automatically extract regulatory firm data. And we will identify and implement near term improvements in how we use data, including greater use of AI and ML to interpret the information. Support the transition to a carbon-neutral economy My final example of how the new finance can serve the new economy is the most fundamental. Indeed, it is existential. This year, the threats from climate change spurred demonstrations across the country and prompted Parliament to declare a ‘climate emergency’. In response, last week, the Prime Minister announced legislation that would make the UK the first G7 country to commit to net zero emissions by 2050. The changes required to achieve this are enormous. Carbon emissions will have to decline by 45% from 2010 levels over the next decade.26 This will require a massive reallocation of capital creating unprecedented risks and opportunities.

The last decade has seen strong global economic growth, while, at the same time, output volatility have dropped. In practice, two paths have emerged for achieving price stability. One way is through a fixed exchange rate regime, such as a currency board. Under such an arrangement, a country simply imports the monetary policy of a country with a highly credible low-inflation regime. This path has emerged as the weapon of choice of many emerging economies. These countries want to achieve price stability, while avoiding the costly deflations which otherwise might be necessary to anchor inflation expectations. The other way is through an independent central bank with a mandate to maintain price stability. This mandate is often formulated in terms of an inflation target. The inflation target operated by the Swedish Riksbank stipulates that consumer price inflation should be 2 per cent per year, with a tolerance interval of plus/minus 1 percentage point. For all practical purposes this arrangement is close to what is found in, for example, the UK, Australia, Norway and the Eurozone. It should also be said that there is a general consensus that the inflation target in Sweden has been a successful one. Financial stability As I mentioned earlier, many central banks today also have an objective to promote financial stability. While there is close to universal agreement on what price stability means, there has yet to emerge, some attempts none withstanding, a consensus on a working definition of  BIS Review 101/2007  1  financial stability.
Compensation for the gold price risk and the dollar exchange rate risk, in particular, is relatively poor. It is therefore inevitable that tighter bounds will be set on SNB profit distribution, once the existing distribution reserve has been exhausted. BIS Review 123/2006  3

In addition, through the supervisory process, we will continue to look for weaknesses in our supervised institutions that expose them to potential fraud. While the Bank of Thailand is here to support institutions in this manner, please keep in mind that the primary responsibility for fraud prevention remains with the board of directors and management. I would be remiss in not addressing the upcoming launch of the revised Basel Capital Accord. Basel II, as it is more commonly known, establishes expectations for financial institutions’ risk management processes. In addition to requiring an explicit calculation of capital requirements for credit and operational risk, Basel II requires institutions to have robust consolidated risk management processes. Institutions are expected to ensure that they have adequate capital for all other risks as well. Through the supervisory process, regulators may also require additional capital for institutions whose risk management processes are not fully compliant. Institutions can best address the expectations of Basel II by maintaining or establishing sound risk management processes. In Thailand, the implementation of Basel II will start at the end of this year, and the preparation for its implementation is progressing on schedule. As our institutions complete  2  BIS Review 52/2008  the implementation of Basel II, I firmly believe that we will see a commensurate improvement in the quality of risk management among our banks, particularly in the operational risk area.
Signing a bank deposit agreement or a loan agreement or buying an insurance product, individuals should have comprehensive information on the conditions, expected returns, the full cost of all services, their rights and obligations. The issue of hard selling of services has also been discussed at the State Duma for many years. We are developing an instrument whereby key information documents on financial products disclose compact and clear data to consumers regarding all the conditions. We are also addressing the topic of hard selling of extra services and various fees when individuals sign 5/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  a consumer loan agreement. At the end of last year, we issued an information letter obliging banks to include such additional ‘services’ (only so-called services because they generally provide no benefits to people) into the calculation of the total cost of credit. I have said ‘an information letter obliging’, but there is a contradiction here since these are only recommendations and, accordingly, they cannot oblige anybody. We propose that organisations should specify the total cost of credit from the very start so that people understand the actual costs for loan servicing. This will enable people to select more advantageous offers. However, we certainly need legislative changes. Such amendments have been drafted with the engagement of the Central Bank. They propose the introduction of a so-called open-ended cooling-off period, which will enable consumers to fully abandon any services foisted on them together with a loan (with the refund of all related payments).

This amount will also be 1.4 million rubles. We would like to continue the discussion of this topic with deputies. In our opinion, we are fully prepared to generally extend the insurance system to them in the medium term. I will now speak on another type of insurance — OSAGO. Last year, a key reform in OSAGO (compulsory third-party liability motor insurance) was accomplished. It involved the customisation of insurance premiums. This reform was complex and implemented in several stages. We discussed every stage of it with you, at parliament proceedings, and in the course of various panel discussions. Finally, last year, we switched to this scheme of significant 4/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  customisation of insurance premiums. In our opinion, this solution is really the fairest one for people — a good driver should not pay for those whose driving involves risks and causes accidents. This approach is in line with the concept of balanced development in this segment. We can see that the number of complaints regarding OSAGO decreased already by a quarter last year. Moreover, a similar reduction was recorded in complaints about the calculation of the bonus-malus coefficient. This was an acute issue, and we also discussed it here, in the Parliament. Furthermore, although prices for components and imported spare parts were up, insurance rates remained the same, and OSAGO was affordable.