samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In general, owners of capital and scarce skills have been well rewarded, while, less-skilled workers and those with limited access to jobs or finance have enjoyed limited gains. While it is obvious that such an outcome poses serious political risks, even from an economic point of view, inequality raises an economic issue since it implies that human resources are not being productively used. Therefore it  BIS Review 29/2008  3  follows that, unless this imbalance is addressed, it would probably manifest itself in dangerous political upheavals, which could easily negate the economic gains that may have been so painstakingly built up. In recent years, the global expansion has been supported by the ready availability of external financing at relatively reasonable interest rates. Credit has been readily available, particularly as a result of innovations in financial market instruments which were supposed to have improved liquidity and distributed risk better. But those innovative models are today facing increasing pressure, and economic planners are in the process of re-thinking these processes. Therefore, in the near future another serious issue that we may have to face in our effort to achieve sustainability in our growth momentum would be that, over time, global savings may well become more scarce, putting upward pressure on real interest rates. Mr. Chairman, twice during the first half of the last century, the prosperity of the world was severely threatened by devastating world wars.

In this background, we cannot realistically expect oil prices to reduce in the near future and therefore we would have to consciously brace ourselves to deal with the harmful effects of this highly destructive attack on future growth, if we are to maintain our growth momentum. As if the of oil shock was not enough, the international commodity prices too, have been rising sharply during the past year or so. This outcome possibly displays how tightly linked the prices of commodities are, to each other. As a result of these increases, which resulted in the global food price index recording a 54% increase over the past year, many countries are now facing their highest recorded inflation figures in the new millennium. China’s inflation in January 2008 was at its highest in 11 years. In Singapore, it was their highest in 25 years. Australia recorded their highest figure in 16 years. We, in Sri Lanka also recorded our highest rate in 18 years while we know Pakistan too is struggling with its inflation, amidst high food prices. In this volatile scenario, the challenge before the emerging countries is how to maintain price stability, without hampering the growth momentum. Unfortunately, in the backdrop of high international oil and commodity prices, there does not appear to be an easy escape route or a quick fix. Worse still, many experts are now proffering the view that the current increases in oil and commodity prices may be a “structural adjustment” rather than just another “supply shock”.
For example, the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System, commonly known as the NGFS, in which over 40 central banks and supervisors have already reached a consensus: and I quote, “climate-related risks are a source of financial risk and therefore fall squarely within the mandates of central banks and supervisors to ensure that the financial system is resilient to these risks.” The HKMA is a member of NGFS, and we are fully on board with this 7. The Bank for International Settlements is also committed to supporting green finance and investment practices, and supports the NGFS research on climate-related risks and their implications for financial stability. 8. The HKMA has many roles – as a bank regulator, one of the largest asset owners globally, and a key promoter of market development. Hence, the HKMA is in a very advantageous position to promote green and sustainable finance in Hong Kong. In May this year, we unveiled three sets of measures on green finance: 9. The first measure is a three-phased approach to promote Green and Sustainable Banking in Hong Kong. Initially, to develop a common framework to assess the existing baseline of individual banks to establish how “green” they are, by talking to the industry to identify the parameters to be included in the assessment; secondly, to engage and consult the industry on whether supervisory requirements are needed; and if needed, how the HKMA should develop our supervisory expectation or requirements; and thirdly to focus on implementation, monitoring and evaluation. 10.

It is possible to further decompose ROE to provide additional insight into how banks increased reported returns as follows:  BIS Review 95/2010  9  Banks can boost ROE by acting on any of the terms on the right-hand side of equation (1.1): increasing assets relative to capital (financial leverage), holding a larger proportion of capital 4 other than as common equity (common equity margin), or assuming a greater degree of risk per unit of assets (return on risk-weighted assets, RoRWA) – leveraging assets, leveraging capital structure or leveraging regulation. Table 4 shows two of the elements of this breakdown for the major global banks – leverage and unit risk. For most banks, the story is one of a significant increase in assets relative to capital, with little movement into higher risk assets (unit risk makes a negative contribution for most banks). Those banks with highest leverage, however, are also the ones which have subsequently reported the largest write-downs. That suggests banks may also have invested in riskier assets, which regulatory risk-weights had failed to capture. Table 5 looks at the third component, the common equity margin, of some of the same global banks. Among at least some of these banks, this margin makes a significant contribution to ROE growth, as banks moved into hybrid Tier 1 capital instruments at the expense of core equity. As such hybrid instruments have shown themselves largely unable to absorb losses during the crisis, this boost to ROE is also likely to have been an act of risk illusion.
Monetary policy measures have contributed to the increase in activity and in inflation  Economic research shows that these measures have been effective in the recent past, in terms of easing financial conditions and encouraging lending. Bearing this in mind, the new package of measures will boost economic activity in the euro area against a background of high uncertainty and will help to bring about the convergence of inflation to levels in line with the ECB's mandate. As regards negative interest rates, although there is no conclusive evidence to date that they have adversely affected the supply of bank credit, we cannot rule out that maintaining 5/18  rates at very low levels for an additional, potentially extended, period of time, could ultimately have some negative consequences for the bank-based transmission of monetary policy. In this regard, the mitigating measures adopted by the ECB, consisting of a tiered system for remunerating excess liquidity holdings, are intended to soften the negative impact on bank profitability of the new reduction in reserve remuneration, and thus ensure the expansionary effect on activity and inflation of the interest rate cuts in the current setting. Prolongation of the current expansionary cycle, albeit at a more moderate rate than in previous years  In relation to the Spanish economy, the latest economic data point to a gradual weakening of activity. First, the indicators that measure agents’ confidence have tended to gradually deteriorate since the beginning of 2018, albeit less so than in the euro area as a whole.

13 I. Dierickx and K. Cool (1989), “Asset Stock Accumulation and Sustainability of Competitive Advantage”, Management Science, vol. 35, pp. 1504-1511. 15/18  restructuring of government organisations engaging in innovation so as to exploit synergies between them. The government research assessment systems could also be redesigned to ensure that the allocation of funds to research centres reflects their academic excellence14 and a public-private collaboration framework could be developed in which the private sector can efficiently channel government funds through the design of well-defined incentives. The demographic challenge: population ageing The challenges associated with slow productivity growth and with the transformations resulting from the technological progress I have just described above take on even greater importance when they are framed in the context of the transition to a new demographic paradigm characterised by population ageing which, although present in many Western economies, has a particularly strong impact on Spain. The ageing challenge  Indeed, the combination of a low birth rate, high longevity and the impending retirement of the generation known as the baby boomers makes Spain one of the countries where the dependency ratio, which measures the proportion of persons at least 65 years of age to those aged from 16 to 64, is increasing most sharply. Specifically, according to the latest projections by the Spanish National Statistics Institute, the dependency ratio will grow from 29.9% in 2019 to 51.8% in 2050, i.e. it will practically double in three decades.
Table 2: Weighted average bilateral tariffs Tariffs imposed by:  the US  China  US  the EU  On imports from:  China  the US  the EU  the US  Prior to any measures taken  2.6  9.1  3.3  3.0  With measures already implemented  13.7  22.4  3.7  3.3  With contemplated measures as well  25.0  25.0  6.7  7.7  Sources: Bank calculations. Notes: Measures already implemented are the US tariffs on steel and aluminium and the reciprocated 25% tariff on $ of US imports from China. Contemplated measures are 25% US tariffs on all imports from China and retaliatory measures and the US tariffs on EU motor vehicles and parts. Moreover, these estimates may underestimate the non-linear effects of tariffs on tightly integrated global supply chains. In this regard, the early indications are not promising. The more hostile and uncertain trading environment is coinciding with sharp slowdowns in global trade, manufacturing, industrial production and capital goods orders (Chart 7). As a consequence, the quality of global growth has deteriorated. Across the G7, the growth rate of business investment has almost halved since its peak in late 2017, leaving the global expansion more reliant on consumer spending (Chart 8) and reducing its resilience.6  6  BIS analysis finds that increasing shares of private consumption in GDP can be a leading indicator of future growth slowdowns.

In the area of trade finance for example, recent data shows that European banks are increasing their trade finance activities and have even regained some market share in Singapore. Three dimensions of a successful finance professional The financial industry in Asia and Singapore will continue to grow and generate good jobs. •  In 2013, Singapore’s financial sector grew by 11%, against an overall GDP growth rate of 4.1%. Growth was supported by increased activities in areas such as corporate transaction banking, trade finance, fund management, private banking and re/insurance. •  Last year, a total of 4,500 jobs were created in the financial sector, most of them in higher value-added activities. The demand for highly qualified finance professionals will only grow in the coming years. To take advantage of this opportunity, our finance professionals must acquire three things: •  depth in core competencies  •  cross-functional adaptability  •  Asian knowledge and expertise  First, depth in core competencies. Jobs in the financial industry are becoming more complex, requiring deeper knowledge, expertise, and skill sets. Take for example, a client adviser working in a wealth management function. Ten years ago, maybe he was only expected to offer advice on simple loans and basic investment products. Today, the client is more sophisticated and demanding – he expects more comprehensive  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  and customised wealth management solutions. The banker must be able to offer advice on alternative investments, options for intergenerational wealth transfer, and risk management strategies.
I believe that this is a critical component of the interest rate benchmark reform agenda. Structure of the group The Working Group we have initiated today is a private-sector group comprised of senior subject matter experts from major sterling swap dealers. Participation is at the invitation of the Bank of England, and we have convened this particular group because our experience of derivatives reform suggests that the swap dealer community can be most influential in catalysing a transition. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  It will of course be necessary to reach out to a wide range of stakeholders – but the commitment to change must originate from this group, and this group is best placed to promote adoption amongst the swap user community. In particular, we expect that you will reach out to CCPs, exchanges, benchmark administrators, and end users – including institutional investors and corporate treasures. The Bank is prepared to facilitate this outreach process by hosting roundtable meetings at the request of the Working Group. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association will participate in a non-voting capacity and provide guidance on contract robustness and reference rate transition. Representatives from the Bank of England and the FCA will participate as ex-officio members. The Bank will also provide a secretariat, host meetings, and publish the terms of reference of the Group, meeting agendas and minutes on our website. 1 Aims of the group and timeline The rest is up to you.

Chris Salmon: Remarks given at the first meeting of the Working Group on Sterling Risk-Free Reference Rates Remarks by Mr Chris Salmon, Executive Director for Markets of the Bank of England, at the first meeting of the Working Group on Sterling Risk-Free Reference Rates, London, 18 March 2015. *  *  *  Over the past two and a half years, the Bank of England has been firmly committed to benchmark reform. Much has already been achieved by regulators, administrators and market participants. Those achievements include the Wheatley Review of Libor, the development of IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks, the FSB’s recommendations on interest rate benchmark reform, and most recently the extension of the UK regulatory framework to cover additional critical benchmarks – including the interest rate benchmarks, SONIA and RONIA. But there is still much to do. The way ahead was signposted in the July 2014 Financial Stability Board Report, “Reforming Major Interest Rate Benchmarks”. That Report recommended a “multi-rate” approach involving the strengthening of existing “IBOR” rates (such as LIBOR) by using, to the greatest extent possible, transactions data; and developing alternative near risk-free reference rates (RFRs) for use in derivatives contracts.
This was the case after the emergence of the railway at the end of the 19th century and the crash of 1929 followed on from the breakthrough of electricity and the internal combustion engine at the beginning of the 20th century. I do not intend to make an in-depth analysis of the causes here, but to point out that even very promising developments in the growth of productivity can live up to the profit expectations created during speculative bubbles. Monetary policy implications It is evident that large, IT-driven and IT-supported structural changes are underway and that these affect productivity and price levels in a way that needs to be taken into account when assessing inflationary pressure in the economy. We do not know how long the technological changes will have an effect, but I have every reason to believe that IT will affect developments in Sweden for the next few years, which basically comprises the monetary policy target horizon. On the other hand, there is in my opinion nothing to indicate that the “new economy” has invalidated any fundamental economic connections. At the same time, rapid changes such as those we are now experiencing involve greater uncertainty. No one can say with any great precision how productivity will develop over the next few years and how large a role IT will play in its development. This uncertainty is enhanced by the difficulty in measuring the IT sector’s significance as a result of shortcomings in Swedish statistics.

In addition, strategically important markets, such as telecommunications and broadcasting media have been opened up to competition. It is especially important that Sweden had a broad base of users of various technical systems at an early stage. A broad base is essential for users and producers to gain a real exchange from working in the networks comprised by the new technology. Ericsson’s successful broadening of its operations from fixed to mobile telephony and Sweden’s rapid licensing of first NMT and then GSM gave Sweden one of the world’s broadest bases of mobile phone users. The subsidised provision of personal computers to employees also broadened the user base and gave Sweden the highest PC density in Europe. This of course facilitated the use of the internet and thus the general e-mail revolution in Swedish companies and homes. The combination of internet usage and the high density of mobile phones means that mobile internet, despite its slow start, has already come further here than in the USA. Slide 4 shows a summary of Sweden’s position in various technological, network-based systems. As the internet is still in a phase of development, these figures can primarily serve as indicators of future growth. 4.
It will be equally  2  BIS Review 110/2007  important, in both the private and public sectors, for wage growth to be compatible with productivity growth, labour market conditions and cost developments in competitor countries. The further strengthening of competition in both product and resource markets and the creation of more incentives to work are also necessary in order to raise the participation rate. It also needs to be realized that these reforms are essential for safeguarding our social model. In recent decades we have been successful in reducing income inequality and in securing universal access to all levels of education, to health care and to pensions. These benefits, however, can only continue to be enjoyed by future generations if today’s generation implements the necessary reforms. The next phase in Malta’s economic history, therefore, promises to be a challenging one, but it should also be an exciting time. For a country with a population of 400,000 and a GDP of just four-and-a-half billion euro, having a major reserve unit as its domestic currency is indeed a significant advantage. We thus have good reason to feel encouraged and, as a people that has suffered repeatedly as a consequence of divisions on the European mainland, also reassured that we are about to reinforce our integration in Europe with full economic and monetary union.

This implies a gradual reduction in the effect on actual M3 growth arising from the downward impact of the steep yield curve and the associated allocation of funds into longer-term deposits and securities outside M3. At the same time, the annual growth rate of M1 has continued to moderate, although it remained strong at 9.2% in June 2010. In part, this reflects somewhat higher opportunity costs of holding overnight deposits relative to other short-term deposits. The still weak annual growth rate of bank loans to the private sector continues to conceal countervailing developments, with increasingly positive growth in loans to households and stabilised negative annual growth in loans to non-financial corporations. A lagged response of loans to non-financial corporations to developments in economic activity is a normal feature of the business cycle. The data up to June indicate that, after expanding for a few months earlier in the year, the size of banks’ overall balance sheets has not increased further. The challenge remains for banks to expand the availability of credit to the non-financial sector when demand picks up. Where necessary, to address this challenge, banks should retain earnings, turn to the market to strengthen further their capital bases or take full advantage of government support measures for recapitalisation. In this respect, we welcome the EU-wide stress-testing exercise, which was prepared and conducted by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) and national supervisory authorities, in close cooperation with the ECB.
Those with long memories know we have achieved low inflation and steady growth before - though never for so long - only to see them slip away. They ask: what’s to prevent that happening again? A lot has changed in the past fifteen years. We now have an approach to setting interest rates which provides much better incentives for policy makers to take the right decisions. This - and the strong track record built up over the past decade - has stabilised expectations, with the result that it takes more to throw inflation off course. This is crucial insurance against the risks of a more turbulent decade ahead. A trickier issue - and one on which I want to spend some time tonight - is the vexed question of information. Statisticians get an even worse press than economists. But they are indispensable. Just as well run businesses need good management information, so successful monetary policy depends on having good information about the economy. The statistical fog surrounding the true state of the economy has proved a particularly potent breeding ground for policy errors in the past. Are we yet in sight of a clearer view? The policy framework But let me start first with the policy framework: what grounds are there for being confident that it provides the right incentives for policy makers to take good decisions?

Or as Joseph Schumpeter put it in 1934: “He (the banker) stands between those who wish to form new combinations and the possessors of productive means… He is the ephor (the overseer) of the exchange economy.”10 In fact, all the elements that have been identified in the finance and economics literature as the key functions of the financial sector are eventually directed towards the support of the real economy:   providing information about investment projects and allocating capital;    monitoring investments and exerting corporate governance after providing finance;    facilitating trading, diversification and management of risk;    and mobilizing and pooling savings.11  In providing these services, the financial industry plays its role to contribute to sustainable economic growth. I would argue that, during the recent years, the financial sector has lost focus in playing this role. In a period characterized   by search-for-yield with inadequate risk assessment and pricing,    by weak underwriting standards,    by inadequate risk management practices,    by fragile short-term funding of long-term assets,    by a proliferation of opaque financial products,    and by excessive leverage,  the financial sector has become to some extent self-referential. Rather than helping with a proper diversification and management of risk, the financial sector itself created a huge tail risk for the rest of the economy.