samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As an anniversary usually brings up both a tally of what was done in the past, and wishes for the future, I will try to have some measure of both in my congratulatory address to you. Practicing our profession involves our capability to serve society and help the Bulgarian economy. Because, as we are all very well aware, banks have high responsibilities in a market economy – the ongoing technological innovation, developing and offering new products and services, as well as the predictability and stability of banks are a mandatory prerequisite for economic prosperity. From my first day as a BNB Governor to this very day, I have never stopped reiterating and instilling the idea that this responsibility requires the individual efforts of each one of us to be governed by a long-term goal – let’s call it a sense of mission – which goes beyond the specific financial or market considerations of the current day. It is exactly a jubilee like today’s that reminds us of the historic horizons behind the daily statistics, balance sheets or income statements, which ultimately mark the road of new and democratic Bulgaria. Speaking of history, exactly the current crisis stirs the need to examine the past. It is often said about this crisis that it has been the biggest one globally in the recent decades.

Please note that these numbers do not even take into account the contribution by the central bank. Therefore, all that is good for the banking system and allows it to perform its traditional functions, is also good for the Bulgarian economy. Our country can ill afford to do without the banks’ considerable positive contribution to economic growth – which will be the effect, unfortunately, if the policymakers succumbed to certain populist sentiments that have been promoted recently by some figures who would use every occasion to come onto the media stage. There is no reason for the banks in Bulgaria to be additionally burdened by ill-considered administrative regulations and the related costs. Quite the contrary, the weight of such additional burden would turn back as a boomerang against the interests of our society and the Bulgarian economy in general. The nihilistic attitudes to our own achievements in the past hold back enterprise and the ability to plan for the future. That slows down the economy. Simply not knowing one’s own economic history, however, could lead to making decisions with very adverse implications. Therefore, the best we could wish ourselves for the future with regard to the sector and the economy as a whole is that in the future the public interference in the banking area in Bulgaria continues mainly within the confines of prudential and conservative regulations and supervisory practices.
In this context, I would like to start my speech by once more underlining that inflation developments in Turkey in the first quarter of 2009 should be considered in the light of these global conditions. In the first quarter of 2009, consumer prices increased by 1.05 percent and annual consumer inflation became 7.89, remaining within the limits of the uncertainty band. Backed by the significant slowdown in economic activity and improvement in cost-based effects, the decline in inflation gained ground and spread across all subgroups. In addition, the short-term exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices remained limited in the previous quarter. The contribution of all main groups excluding tobacco and gold, which posted high-rated price hikes to annual inflation weakened in the first quarter of the year. While the contribution of food and energy to annual inflation decreased especially due to the marked decline of annual inflation in energy prices, the contribution of services prices also continued to diminish owing to the fall in costs and the slowdown in domestic demand (Figure 1).

The contraction in economic activity in the last quarter of 2008, which was mainly driven by the contraction in the export-oriented industrial sector, accelerated the deterioration in nonagricultural employment and unemployment climbed to a record high with the additional effect of the significant rise in the labor force participation rate (Graph 24 and 25). The most recent data indicate that the rise in the unemployment rate continued with further acceleration in the first quarter of 2009. Within this framework, it is estimated that the current conditions will continue to curb the upward trend in unit labor costs and the rise in domestic demand. BIS Review 67/2009  15  Graph 24: Non-Agricultural Employment  Graph 25: Non-Agricultural Unemployment  (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People)  (Seasonally Adjusted, Percent)  16.5  16  16.0  15  15.5 14 15.0 13  14.5 14.0  12 1  2  3  2005  4  1  2  3  4  1  2006  2  3  2007  4  1  2  3  2008  Source: TURSTAT, CBT. 4  1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  Source: TURKSTAT, CBT. The rapid policy rate cuts coupled with the fiscal stimulus plan designed to revive domestic economic activity are expected to underpin domestic demand as of the second quarter of 2009.
I will close my presentation with a practitioner's conviction: yes, transformation and management of public services are indeed possible! (III) ** I. Our public finances have steadily deteriorated over time The "strange defeat": getting left behind in Europe Our public finances have been steadily deteriorating for over forty years. In 1980, our public debt amounted to only 20% of GDP. It currently represents almost 112%, a figure that has barely come down since the Covid shock, and by less than our European neighbours. This steady increase can be explained  Page 2 of 19 by the government expenditure ratio, which has risen from 46% in 1980 to 58% at present, systematically generating annual deficits. For these two key ratios, France is currently well above the average for the euro area excluding France (i.e. government expenditure ratio of 49%, public debt ratio of 86% in 2022). Page 3 of 19 France joined the euro area with a public debt ratio equal to that of Germany (59% in 2001); since then, Germany's debt has increased by 8 points, while France's has risen by 53 points. This sets France apart from most of its European neighbours, who all share the same social model, in which I am a firm believer. Let us take two comparisons: Germany and Sweden. Between 1995 (beginning of the OECD statistical series) and 2021, Germany reduced its government expenditure ratio from 55% to 51%, and Sweden from 63% to 49%.

Agents have always been and will continue to be important agents, including agents of change in the insurance sector as they are uniquely positioned to read the pulse of customers. This change could involve the insurer-agent relationship and the balancing of customers’ interests. The time could be appropriate for general insurance agents to reorganise themselves into an industry 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  association that can effectively mobilise the power of collective action and enable the agents as a cohesive force to better serve customers’ interests. This will also put in place a foundation for the possibility of setting standards on conduct, education and self-regulation of individual agents. Cultivating a solid industry association is neither an easy nor a short-term task but the benefits are immense. The Bank remains optimistic that agents will continue to play a key role in Malaysia’s insurance industry, and will be crucial to take us to the next level. In all this, agents must not deviate from their raison d’etre, i.e. intermediating between the insurer and the customer. Ultimately, we all should recognize that it is the interests of the customers, which is at the heart of it. Jack Ma of Alibaba, aptly said it, “Customers should be number one.” The challenge presented upon you today, is to embrace the Digital Economy and not lose sight of this. On that note, let me once again thank PIAM for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you today and I wish you a productive convention ahead.
If interest rate changes are to have the intended effect, confidence in monetary policy among financial market participants is an important precondition. Without such confidence, it is not possible to predict the impact of monetary policy on the real economy or on inflation. The difference between expected short-term rates in Norway and Germany 10 years ahead is a measure of confidence in monetary policy. In the period following the introduction of the inflation target, long-term forward rates have largely been around 1 percentage point higher than in Germany. Between ½ and 1 percentage point can probably be ascribed to Norway’s inflation target, which is higher than the price stability objective for the euro area. The narrow differential between Norwegian and German forward rates indicates that there is confidence that the inflation target will be achieved. If this confidence did not exist, the forward rate differential would probably have been far wider. Difference between Norwegian and German forward interest rates 10 years ahead. Per cent 1.4  1.4  1.2  1.2  1.0  1.0  0.8  0.8  0.6  0.6  0.4  0.4  0.2  0.2  0.0 01/01/99  0.0 01/10/99  01/07/00  01/04/01  01/01/02  01/10/02  Source: Norges Bank SG Gausdal 31.01.03  The forward rate differential against Germany has narrowed somewhat recently to around ½ percentage point. German forward rates have risen, while Norwegian forward rates have been more stable. The forward rate differential between the US and Germany is now close to zero.

Furthermore, recovery varies from one industry to another. Overall, the situation today is much better than many observers had expected at the beginning of 2015. The Swiss economy has once again demonstrated its flexibility by, for example, making swift adjustments to working hours and taking measures to improve production processes. In view of the structural changes taking place, this adaptability will remain key, regardless of developments in the international economy and exchange rates. I’m thinking here of traditional retailing, which increasingly has to compete with internet trading. Digitalisation, too, presents new challenges for manufacturing and finance that will continue to call for major efforts on the part of companies and staff in all the industries concerned. Current monetary policy  What challenges does this situation pose for our monetary policy? We have the statutory mandate to ensure price stability. In so doing, we must take due account of economic developments. Since the beginning of the year, the inflation rate in Switzerland has climbed above zero again (cf. chart 4). As is the case with our trading partners, this is largely driven by oil and food prices. Core inflation is somewhat lower, primarily because of underutilised production capacity. Our current forecast puts inflation in mid-2019 at around 1%. Given low inflation and underutilisation of production capacity, maintaining an expansionary monetary policy in Switzerland is the right course of action to take. The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued.
People who receive unemployment benefit are mainly found in the lower part of the distribution, as are those with sickness benefit and other benefits such as activity compensation and financial support. 9 It is also clear that the group with the lowest income includes people who according to the Swedish Public Employment Service have a vulnerable position on the labour market, for instance, those born outside of Europe. The strong economic activity in recent years has meant that demand for labour has increased, which has meant that employment has shown a rising trend. Unemployment has also fallen, which is impressive given that the number of people in the labour force has at the same time increased. This development has reasonably, all else being equal, had a levelling effect on the distribution of income. An observation supporting this argument is that employment among those born outside of Europe has actually also begun to increase, albeit from a much lower level than for the other groups. Of course, it is not possible to ascribe the whole of this distributional effect to monetary policy – in the same way as it cannot account for the whole distributional effect of rising asset prices. But it is quite clear that the expansionary monetary policy has contributed to the strong development of the labour market in recent years. Another aspect of the improvements in the labour market that is relevant here is the link to future pensions.

First, MSB has an important role in supporting an inclusive financial system and facilitating economic transactions that add to growth and prosperity. However, this role has not been fully exploited. For example, there are still significant number of businesses and migrant workers who still prefer informal remittance channels as their choice. It is timely for MSB providers to reassess their products and services in terms of cost, speed, convenience and trusts so that we can draw this group of users away from the informal channels. I believe innovation is key to achieve this and it has to be facilitated by a regulatory framework that is facilitative. Second, global and national efforts to address risks associated with the financial proceeds from criminal activity have turned the spotlight on the MSB industry. The industry’s long term prospects and its contribution to socio-economic development could be undermined if these risks are not properly understood and sensibly managed. The industry may choose to ignore such risks; regulators are inclined to exaggerate them; customers complain about the inconveniences caused by risks mitigants; and criminals exploit them. The regulatory community and the industry present here today have a responsibility to bridge these gaps in a way that protects the industry from abuse for criminal purposes and the integrity of the financial system and undermine the legitimate expectations by users of financial services. There are 3 areas which we should focus collectively and try to find suitable solutions.
Local depositors would be exposed to possible contagion or a crisis of confidence arising from problems in the bank’s home market, or from problems related to its wholesale banking activities. MAS imposes a number of regulatory requirements on the locally-incorporated banks to protect depositors, including the higher capital adequacy requirements that I mentioned earlier and a minimum paid-up capital of $ billion. However, there are Qualified Full Banks (QFBs) and foreign full banks which operate as branches and accept retail deposits without any capital in Singapore. MAS’ approach has been to closely supervise these branches. They are also required to be members of the deposit insurance scheme, which provides a safety net for all non-bank depositors by insuring their deposits up to $ per depositor per bank. There are clear benefits, however, for foreign banks with a large retail presence to operate their retail business from a locally-incorporated subsidiary. Where the banks have corporate or investment banking businesses, these activities can continue to operate as part of their existing branches. This will allow banks to continue to benefit from cost efficiencies associated with a branch structure and minimise changes to their business models. Moreover, by conducting retail activities from a separate locally-incorporated entity, the bank will be seen by local retail customers as being strongly committed to the local market for the long-term. International discussions on this topic are ongoing and MAS is monitoring the debate closely. Conclusion To conclude, Singapore has built a reputation for credibility and prudence in the last 40 years.

If, as expected, second round effects remain contained, the rate of inflation should drop back below 2% during the course of 2009, and long-term inflation expectations should remain low. Based on these assumptions, current monetary policy is appropriate. However, if inflation does not fall back due to second round effects as expected, the SNB would need to counter this development in order to anchor price stability. BIS Review 103/2008  1
Heng Swee Keat: The sale of structured products to retail investors Opening remarks by Mr Heng Swee Keat, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Press Conference on the Sale of Structured Products to Retail Investors, Singapore, 17 October 2008. *  *  *  Many individuals who purchased structured products linked to Lehman Brothers are worried about their investments. MAS has been actively working to ensure a fair resolution for these investors. We have also been communicating our actions to the public since the issue first came to light in the middle of September. Our first priority has always been to help affected investors. Let me touch on what we have done and how we have put in place a serious and impartial resolution process to deal with investors’ legitimate concerns. First, we are making sure that HSBC Institutional Trust Services (Singapore) Ltd, the trustee for the Lehman Minibond Programme, carefully considers all options and acts in the interests of investors. If a new swap counterparty is available, investors would have the opportunity to vote on this option. In order to assist investors make an informed decision, MAS will appoint an independent financial adviser. We expect the trustee to know whether options will be available to noteholders by the end of next week.

8  BIS Review 95/2010  To some extent, these strategies and their implications were captured to a degree in performance measures. For example, the rise in reported average ROEs of banks over the past few decades occurred alongside a rise in its variability. At the same time as average ROEs in banking were trebling, so too was their standard deviation (Chart 17). In that sense, the banking “productivity miracle” may have been, at least in part, a mirage – a simple, if dramatic, case of risk illusion by banks, investors and regulators. (a)  Increased leverage  Banks’ balance sheets have grown dramatically in relation to underlying economic activity over the past century. Charts 19 and 20 plot this ratio for the UK and the US over the past 130 years. For the US, there has been a secular rise in banks’ assets from around 20% to over 100% of GDP. For the UK, a century of flat-lining at around 50% of GDP was broken in the early 1970s, since when banks’ assets in relation to national income have risen tenfold to over 500% of GDP. This century has seen an intensification of this growth. According to data compiled by the Banker, the balance sheets of the world’s largest 1000 banks increased by around 150% between 2001 and 2009 (Chart 21). In cross-section terms, the scale of assets in the banking system now dwarfs that in other sectors.
The ideal post-EU regulatory framework Speech given by Victoria Saporta, Executive Director of Prudential Policy  International Business & Diplomatic Exchange 2020 Annual Conference, London 10 March 2020  I would like to thank Matthew Willison, Hugh Burns, Nicolo Fraccaroli and David Swallow for their assistance in preparing these remarks 1  A lot has changed since the last global financial crisis. Banks are much more resilient. The PRA has authorised 18 new banks in the past five years, with further banks in the pipeline to be authorised. The role of non-banks and market-based finance has been growing. And digitalisation is transforming a number of financial services. In spite of these changes, the fundamental market failures that justify the need for prudential regulation remain. This is because financial firms can take actions that create “negative externalities” – jargon for someone making bets that hurt innocent bystanders when they go wrong. And in the case of “systemic” negative externalities they hurt the economy at large, as the Great Financial Crisis reminded us. Equally, these market failures need to be dealt with in a manner that does not introduce frictions that hurt innovation and long-term productivity and economic growth. Prudential regulation that deals effectively with these market failures has to be underpinned by an appropriate institutional structure: a set of clear responsibilities enshrined in law on who sets the objective for prudential regulation and how, who regulates, and where the details of prudential regulation should sit.

Remote communication has not yet displaced human contact completely as the medium for doing business; indeed, face-to-face contact has survived much more extensively than some had predicted; and, to the extent that it is necessary or desirable to get people round a table in order to expedite some project, Hong Kong, because it is small, is one of the easiest places in which to do so. •  A third factor supporting the "can do" culture is the general quality and spread of people who are on tap to help get things done: Hong Kong has a good critical mass of expertise in all areas of financial and related services. Of course, I am not deaf to the difficulties sometimes expressed about finding extra people at a particular time with particular skills, but this is almost inevitable in a growing economy. Even then, some relief is normally available through drawing in temporary resources from outside Hong Kong if the occasion demands. •  Finally I would cite the work ethic. People work for long hours and with much loyalty in Hong Kong. Of course, this is not enough in itself. It is productivity that counts, but that is probably where Hong Kong scores; I don't have the impression that many people are passing the day gazing idly out of the window. The corollary of high productivity is that, as I noted earlier, by international comparison a lot of people here receive high salaries, but they certainly earn them. Otherwise they would not hold onto their jobs.
Overall, economic activity is likely to be very weak for the remainder of this year, before gradually recovering in the course of 2010. In particular, the substantial fall in commodity prices since the summer of 2008 is supporting real disposable income and thus consumption. In addition, external as well as domestic demand should increasingly benefit from the effects of the significant macroeconomic stimulus under way as well as from the measures taken so far to restore the functioning of the financial system both inside and outside the euro area. Taking all these measures and their effects into account, as well as the pronouncedly negative growth in the first quarter of this year and the most recently published forecasts by public institutions, the risks to this outlook remain broadly balanced. On the downside, there are concerns that the turmoil in financial markets could have a stronger impact on the real economy, as well as that protectionist pressures could intensify and that there could be adverse developments in the world economy stemming from a disorderly correction of global imbalances. At the same time, there may be stronger than anticipated positive effects due to the decrease in commodity prices and to the policy measures taken. Annual HICP inflation was, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, 0.6% in April, unchanged from March. As explained on earlier occasions, the decline in inflation since last summer primarily reflects the sharp fall in global commodity prices over this period. Moreover, signs of a more broad-based reduction in inflationary pressure are increasingly emerging.

This will preserve the public’s trust in the sustainability of public finances and will support both the recovery and long-term economic growth. The credibility of fiscal consolidation commitments will be strengthened if they are part of national policy frameworks oriented to the medium term. BIS Review 56/2009  3  Turning to structural policies, it is crucial that the focus is now on strengthening the adjustment capacity and flexibility of the euro area economy in line with the principle of an open market economy. This calls for an accelerated implementation of labour market reforms to facilitate appropriate wage-setting and labour mobility across sectors and regions as well as product market reforms to foster competition and speed up restructuring. We are now at your disposal for questions. 4  BIS Review 56/2009