samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In the period from February to April 2001, the three-months average of the annual growth rates of M3 adjusted for holdings by residents outside the euro area of money market fund shares was 4.6%, which roughly corresponds to the reference value of 4.5%. Although credit aggregate figures remained dynamic, some slowdown has also been observed in their case. -  in addition, there is now clear evidence that M3 figures are distorted upwards by non-euro area residents’ purchases of negotiable paper included in M3. This distortion has become more sizeable recently and can roughly be estimated to around half a percentage point. All in all, information gathered from the first pillar pointed out that there were less risks to price stability over the medium-term emanating from monetary developments. As regards the second pillar of the ECB monetary policy strategy, upward risks to price stability over the medium-term also have diminished somewhat. Still, HICP growth rate has accelerated on a year-on-year basis in April to 2.9% and possibly the figure for May will not be very good. But these developments mainly seem to be generated by temporary factors that should substantially diminish over next 12 months to permit inflation to go back below the level of 2% which is our ceiling for the definition of price stability. However, evidence as well as global uncertainties regarding the international context also require continuous monitoring of growth trends and wage developments.

Christian Noyer: “Towards Retail Payments 2.0: The New Security Challenges” Opening speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the conference “Towards Retail Payments 2.0: The New Security Challenges”, Paris, 22 October 2014. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, I am delighted to open this conference today, dedicated to the work of the Secure Pay forum and to the new security challenges that lie ahead for retail payments. On behalf of the European Central Bank and of the Banque de France, I would like to welcome you all in Paris, and thank you for accepting our invitation to participate to this event. All the authorities that have an interest in the area of security at national and European level are represented today together with the major stakeholders of the private sector. I have no doubt that this will favor fruitful debates and a comprehensive overview of major challenges and issues regarding the security of retail payments. This conference organized here in Paris illustrates the continuous support that the Banque de France has been providing to the Secure Pay forum from the very beginning, in order to promote the best practices in the field of security for retail payments in Europe. This support has its roots in the Banque de France’s mandate which, since 2001, explicitly requires that we ensure the safety of cashless payments.
The Governing Council supports the actions taken by the European Commission in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact and the subsequent outcome of the ECOFIN Council meeting last month. It is now necessary to remain vigilant in order to ensure strict adherence to the medium-term plans and rigorous implementation of the procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact. In order to further improve the fundamentals of the euro area and to put the expected recovery on a broad and sustainable basis, euro area countries must strengthen their efforts to implement comprehensive structural reforms. Over the past few years progress has been made with regard to enhancing the flexibility of euro area product and capital markets. Euro area countries have also made some headway in terms of improving the way their labour markets operate. These reforms, together with moderate wage developments, have contributed to the strong employment growth and the considerable reduction in unemployment witnessed in many euro area countries in the last cyclical upswing. However, it is worth noting that despite the continued high unemployment in the euro area, firms continue to report difficulties in terms of recruiting suitably qualified workers. This suggests that further improvements in the functioning of euro area labour markets and their ability to match labour supply and demand are needed. Evidence gathered in a recent Eurosystem analysis, which will be published shortly, supports this view. In this context I would also like to stress that structural reforms in different markets should not be seen in isolation.

7  In a recent contribution, Nicholas Bloom and co-authors showed that US multinationals obtained higher productivity from IT than non-US multinationals and that establishments taken over by US multinationals (but not by non-US multinationals) increased the productivity of their IT. They attributed a bulk of productivity differences to differing people management practices across US and non-US firms. See Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen, 2012, “Americans do I.T. better: US multinationals and the productivity miracle”. American Economic Review 102(1), pp. 167–201. 8  For more information about the Network visit http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/researcher_compnet.en.html. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
For example, when in late 2004 the Bank announced our intention to introduce reforms, the European treasury department of one of the largest companies in the world wrote to me in the following terms: “I write to express our support and appreciation ….. The excessive volatility in the overnight market precluded high-quality issuers .. from participating. …The steps you are taking will surely increase the depth, stability and overall liquidity of the sterling money market.” That kind of support has been a great encouragement. In terms of risk management, many companies swap fixed-rate term borrowing (and other cash flows) into floating-rate. This can be into a six or three-month LIBOR rate of interest, or into a stream of payments linked to the overnight money market rate. In the UK, the Overnight-Index-Swap market has developed rather less than its counterpart in the euro area, which is used by large non-financial companies. One obstacle seems to have been the intra-day volatility in the sterling market, which has entailed uncertainty about the spread between the average overnight rate on any particular day (as measured by the Sterling Overnight Rate Index Average, or SONIA) and the rate actually paid on overnight cash at different times during the day. Many market participants believe that if the reforms introduced yesterday significantly reduce intra-day volatility, the sterling OIS swap market will grow, making it a more useful risk management tool. The evidence of corporate treasurers as placers of short-term money is more concrete.

Thomas Jordan: Innovation and entrepreneurship - key success factors in a changing business environment Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Award ceremony 2018, De Vigier Foundation, Solothurn, 30 May 2018. * * * The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). For many decades, Switzerland has been among the world’s most successful economies. If it is to maintain this position in future, openness to new technology will be essential. In addition to taking over technologies created elsewhere, Switzerland will need to ensure that domestic companies are able to develop their own market-ready innovations. Various factors can facilitate success on this front, whether in established companies or startups. Above-average operating conditions – including low bureaucratic hurdles for the set-up and day-to-day running of companies, reliable patent law and ready access to financing, for example – are crucial. Another important parameter is open market access, not least for foreign competitors; barriers to entry for new firms are extremely harmful to economic wellbeing. The education system is also a significant determinant of a country’s innovative potential. Switzerland invests heavily in high-quality education, both at university level and in the form of specialist vocational training schemes, which helps explain its status as a global leader in research and development. And finally, it is vital to promote a culture of entrepreneurship.
Figure 10 Companies' financial indicators (percent) 120  9  100  8  80  7  60  6  40  5  20  4 07  08  09  Debt/GDP (1)  10  11  12  13  14.III  Profitability of SVS companies (2)  (1) Based on firm-level information. 2007 and 2008 figures estimated using aggregate data. (2) Profits accumulated in 12 months before financial expenses and taxes on total assets of nonfinancial SVS companies. Source: Central Bank Chile based on Achef, SBIF, SII, and SVS data. BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Figure 11 New home prices and office-space vacancy rate (Metropolitan region) (index, 2008 average = 100; percent) 150  12  140  10  130  8  120  6  110  4  100  2  90  0 08  09  10  Housing prices CChC  11  12  13  14  Office-space vacancy rate  Source: Central Bank of Chile based on Global Property Solutions and CChC data. Figure 12 Household indebtedness and financial burden (percent of disposable income) 60  18  55  16  50  14  45  12  40  10 06  07  08  09  Debt-to-income  10  11  12  13  14  Financial-burden-to-income  Source: Central Bank of Chile based on SBIF, SuSeSo, and SVS data.

At the time, pension payments from the public system were still somewhat larger than those from the occupational pension funds, but the difference was slight and, as the total pensions paid out by the occupational pension funds were growing much faster, they did overtake the public system in subsequent years. It is instructive in this regard that, according to OECD, the balance between public and private provision of mandatory pensions is heavily in favour of the private provision in Iceland, or 84%, which is the highest rate amongst OECD countries. As a result, public pension spending in Iceland is 2% of GDP, compared to the OECD average of 7.2%. The occupational pension funds have grown very fast in the last few decades, through mandatory contributions from all wages and salaries, low operational costs, and long spells of good returns. Around the turn of the century, they were the third-largest in EU and EFTA countries in terms of assets as a share of GDP, at around 80%, after Switzerland and the Netherlands. Shortly before the international financial crisis struck, Iceland had overtaken even these countries. The funds were bound to grow much more, as they were far from reaching maturity in the sense that most of those receiving pensions had not accumulated rights based on their lifetime earnings. The clearest measure of this was the fact that the pension burden, or pensions as a share of contributions, was still below 50%.
While these frictions may vary over time, they should generally do so only slowly. 7 The pull of IOER should also be affected by the quantity of reserves in the system. An increase in bank reserves that increases bank assets makes regulatory leverage ratios more binding, raising the shadow marginal cost of bank balance sheets. It also accentuates the competitive frictions I described above, and reduces individual bank demand for additional reserves. 8 As a result, as the level of reserves declines during normalization, marginal balance sheet costs should fall, competitive frictions should lessen, and the demand for additional reserves from individual banks should increase. These factors should strengthen the magnetic attraction of IOER and pull the fed funds rate and other market rates up toward – and at some point equal to or above – the IOER rate. However, excess reserves will remain plentiful for some time, and while that’s the case the FOMC intends to use an ON RRP facility and other tools as needed to complement IOER in controlling the fed funds rate. 9 When the Desk conducts ON RRPs, as in its current testing program, it sells Treasury securities held in the SOMA with an agreement to buy them back the next business day at a pre-determined price. This leaves the size of the SOMA portfolio unchanged, but shifts some of the liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet from bank reserves to reverse repos.

The results of the testing over the first year suggest that the operations have been successful working with IOER to establish a floor for the level of money market rates. Our analysis has found that, offered at a spread of 20 basis points to the IOER rate, ON RRPs have kept overnight repo rates above where they would otherwise have been, in part by influencing the bargaining power of our counterparties. All of the Desk’s eligible RRP counterparty types participate in the operations, with money funds accounting for the largest share of take-up. Take-up generally increases when the spread between market rates and the ON RRP offered rate narrows. Take-up also rises substantially around quarter- and year-end financial reporting dates, when some money market participants’ access to other overnight investments is more limited. To further examine how ON RRPs might best be structured to supplement IOER in controlling the fed funds rate while limiting the potential for unintended effects in financial markets, the FOMC recently directed the Desk to make several changes to the design of its ON RRP operations.
The Islamic Financial Services Board or IFSB, established in 2002 as an international prudential standard setting body for Islamic finance, now has a membership of 50 regulatory authorities. It has developed prudential standards ranging from capital adequacy requirements to standards for governance and risk management. There has also been the development of degree programmes and professional qualifications in Islamic finance that are now being offered by major institutions of higher learning and training organisations from around the world. More recently, conscious efforts to initiate platforms for greater engagement among practitioners, scholars and regulators have brought about greater convergence and standardisation of Shariah interpretations and thus enhancing the potential for product harmonisation which has in turn supported greater cross border transactions in Islamic finance. BIS Review 95/2010  1  Challenges faced by the Islamic financial industry During this same decade, despite enjoying rapid growth, Islamic finance has also experienced its most challenging period. Today we face an environment of financial uncertainties and economic turmoil. The global economy and international financial system has been shaken by a series of unprecedented financial meltdowns in the international environment. Much has been said and documented about the financial mess that the crisis has created. Unprecedented policy responses were initiated to stabilise conditions. Now, significant steps are being taken by the international community to reform and strengthen the international financial system. The aim is to build the foundations for a stronger international financial system and global economy that is built on the premise of sustainable growth and a greater shared prosperity.

An important aspect of the recent developments to strengthen Islamic financial services industry is that this is being undertaken during the stable and good times. This will position Islamic finance to deal with future challenges. A clear indication of that is the growing relevance and importance of the sukuk market. This event in Kuala Lumpur is commemorating the talent, expertise and the successes of the Islamic financial community. BIS Review 95/2010  3
Adjusting the global imbalances is not made easier by the crisis The third challenge – that some countries must begin to rely more on exports and others more on domestic demand – was debated intensively even before the crisis. After the crisis the problems of this global imbalance have in some way become even clearer. One means of maintaining demand and creating scope for consolidation of public finances is to increase exports. And one means by which exports can increase is if the currency weakens so that the country’s own goods become cheaper for other countries to buy. The problem is that all countries cannot by definition export their way out of the crisis at the same time. All countries can conduct an expansionary policy, but all countries’ currencies cannot weaken at the same time. Despite this insight being relatively widespread, fears have been expressed of a currency war, where countries deliberately try to weaken their own currencies. And if a currency war begins, it is only a short step to a trade war, where countries begin to introduce tariffs to protect their own manufacturing. This was what happened during the great depression of the 1930s, and it of course only made the problems worse. Such a development would be very unfortunate and have a considerable negative impact on small economies with extensive foreign trade, such as Sweden. At present there are major efforts being made in various international forums to avoid the global economy spinning off in this direction.

The Riksdag has decided that an inquiry shall be made, and hopefully this work will begin soon. Natural explanations for Sweden’s current account surplus With regard to the third of the challenges – the changeover from exports to domestic demand or vice versa – one can note that Sweden is one of the countries with large current account surpluses. This has in principle been the case since the previous crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. However, the surplus is hardly the result of a deliberate policy to build up a strong external position. The fact that we are saving as much as we are is partly due to our public finances being in good order and partly due to commercial decisions in the private sector. Nor have we tried to benefit exports by holding our currency artificially low. We conduct inflation targeting, and the exchange rate is simply left to its own devices. There are thus natural explanations for our current account surplus and there have not been any strong requests from abroad for us to reduce it. So really, one can say that the third challenge does not have any direct implications for Sweden, either. The forecast and the interest rate decision It has thus become increasingly clear that the Swedish economy is growing strongly. Many indicators of developments in the real economy are now at very high levels and GDP outcomes have been surprisingly strong. How do we see developments in the coming period? And what monetary policy is needed now?
Lars Heikensten: Inflation targeting in Sweden - implementation, communication and effectiveness Opening remarks by Mr Lars Heikensten, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Conference on inflation targeting: implementation, communication and effectiveness, Stockholm, 10 June 2005. *  *  *  I would like to begin by welcoming you all to Stockholm and to this conference on inflation targeting. The idea of holding this conference was hatched a couple of years ago, when Lars Svensson and I were talking about how the thinking in this area has evolved in recent years both in theory and in practice. Where do we stand today in research terms as well as in practice? And what can we learn from each other on the basis of our experiences? The fact that the conference was planned to take place this year provided added incentive, as it is ten years since Sweden’s inflation targeting regime was fully implemented in accordance with the original decision in 1993. We decided to spread the word in our respective networks: Lars on the academic side and I on the practical side. We are delighted that you, our colleagues and friends, have accepted our invitation, and believe we can look forward to a rewarding discussion of where inflation targeting stands today and how it can be developed further. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that monetary policy today is, on the whole, being conducted better and more prudently than ever before.

Early last year, renminbi was estimated to represent 1% of the global foreign exchanges reserves, and the share will grow. Recently, we have also started to see interests in SDR bonds, with the inaugural issuance by the World Bank in China’s domestic bond market, followed by subsequent interests from commercial entities. Having this seminar thus at this juncture is indeed very timely. Uneven global growth with gravity shifting to Asia, particularly China For the past couple of years, the global economy had softened, with a marked slowdown observed throughout both the developed and emerging economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised their global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2016, from 3.2% previously, reflecting softer-than-expected growth in advanced economies and the impact of Brexit. Global trade continued to be subdued, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) expecting only a 1.7% expansion in 2016, marking the slowest pace of global trade growth since the global financial crisis. While China is also contending with moderation in growth during its economic transition, it continued to become the largest contributor to global growth. The gravity centre of global growth has for now, shifted to emerging economies, particularly Asia. China’s slowdown is not all negative – as China’s economic transformation, through various efforts to restructure its economy and internationalise its markets, are important towards a more sustainable path of development. Furthermore, a 6.7% growth rate is an economic performance many would aspire to.