samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Today, I would like to share with you – our vision to realise financial well-being for Malaysians through financial literacy and financial education. Let me begin by sharing four observations on the state of financial literacy in Malaysia. First, Malaysians tend to have low financial resilience and are vulnerable to financial shocks. Among others, based on Bank Negara Malaysia’s Financial Capability and Inclusion (FCI) Survey conducted in 2015- more than 75% of Malaysians find it difficult to raise even RM1,000 of immediate cash money for emergencies. 32% of Malaysians – can only cover a week’s worth of expenses, at most, should they lose their source of income. In cases of emergencies, Malaysians resort to cutting down on spending; or borrow from external sources, such as friends and family members; or even depend on credit lines, such as credit cards and instalment plans. An ideal situation is to have a financial buffer that is sufficient to cover living expenses of at least three to six months in the event of loss of income. Second, the same survey also revealed that a significant number of Malaysians like to “live for the moment” and display short-sighted tendencies – focusing on “instant gratification”. This observation tends to be true, particularly among the millennial generation. Millennials are more passionate in keeping pace with the latest digital lifestyle.

We already fund up to 70% of course fees for training programmes. MAS funding support for manpower and leadership development has increased steadily over the last three years, with about $ million set aside for 2014 alone. I would like to urge the industry to tap on these programmes actively. Conclusion To conclude, I would like to commend the IBF Council and staff, past and present, for your commitment over this past 4 decades. Going forward, the responsibility on IBF will be greater, as it delivers the IBF Standards and the various initiatives that will help our practitioners develop the capabilities of tomorrow. I look forward to an even stronger collaboration between IBF and the industry. Let us work together to ensure that the financial sector is one that continues to enable meaningful and rewarding careers for Singaporeans. I wish you all a happy 40th Anniversary and a great evening ahead. 2  The Finance Scholarship Programme (FSP) builds expertise in specialist finance areas such as financial economics and actuarial science while the Finance Associate Management Scheme (FAMS) provides young talent with exposure to other business lines and overseas operations, through a structured fast-track programme. MAS aims to groom at least 200 young Singaporeans every year under FAMS to take on leadership positions in the future. 3  The International Posting Programme (iPOST) supports the posting of high potential Singaporeans for overseas secondments, through which we hope that they return with managerial skills, a deep understanding of global best practices and strong business networks.
Figure 2  Activity gap by different methods (*)  Other gap metrics (*)  (percent)  6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16  (percent)  10.0  4.0  Capacity utilization Electric power generation (right axis)  3.0 2.0  5.0  1.0 0.0  0.0 -1.0  Range of models  -5.0  -2.0 -3.0  02  04  06  08  10  12  14  16  18  20  -10.0  22  -4.0 15  (*) For details on its calculation, see box II.1 in June 2023 MP Report. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 9  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  Figure 3  Commodity prices  (index, 2018-2023 average=100)  Real exchange rate (RER) (4)  4.0  122  3.5  115  3.0  108  2.5  101  2.0  94  1.5  87  (% of GDP, quarterly)  Foods (1)  180  Transportation costs (3) Oil (2)  140  100  60  20  (index, 1986 average=100)  19  20  21  22  23  Average of last 15 years  80  1.0 18  RER  18  19  20  21  22  23  10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23  (1) FAO food price index. (2) WTI-Brent average.

5  On this occasion, the Board considers that situations of this type are mainly of domestic origin. In particular, in the dynamics of inflation and its determinants. The upper bound is defined by events in which local inflation is more persistent than expected. In this aspect, the information provided by domestic expenditure and CPI prints will be key. The Board will evaluate the inflationary implications of these events, as they could mean that the process of reducing the MPR would be slower. Upward inflation surprises in developed economies could require higher international monetary policy rates, which would contribute to a depreciation of emerging currencies, the peso included. This would increase local inflation in the short term, although its impact on the MPR would be mitigated to the extent that it implies a greater contraction in activity and spending. The lower bound of the MPR corridor shows a scenario where the adjustment of the Chilean economy is faster than expected, leading to an earlier convergence of inflation. Different indicators of capacity gaps suggest that inflationary pressures have been gradually contained. A scenario where such gaps become more negative than expected would lead to a more accelerated reduction in the MPR. Such could be the case if a sharper deterioration occurs in the labor market and private consumption (figure 20). As for risks, these emanate mainly from the global macro-financial situation. A further deterioration could trigger episodes of high volatility, reduce liquidity and encourage capital outflows away from the emerging world.
Since June 2009, economic activity has grown – but not robustly. 2  BIS Review 141/2010  In recent months, the momentum has slowed. After rising at a 3.25 percent annual rate during the second half of 2009, real gross domestic product growth has slowed. With demand growth barely keeping pace with firms’ ability to increase productivity, job creation has been too weak to significantly reduce unemployment, which stands today at 9.6 percent. And, as is typical in such circumstances of considerable slack, the rate of inflation has declined. Why are we experiencing this soft patch now? There are several reasons:   In its first year, this recovery – as is typical – benefited from firms replenishing their inventories. But this effect is now petering out.   The growth impulse from the 2009 fiscal stimulus package is beginning to wane.   The usual hand-off from inventory-led growth to private final demand is not yet fully established. Instead, we have ongoing sluggishness in two key sectors that have led past recoveries: consumer spending and housing. The slow recovery of consumer spending and housing in the face of very substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus reflects the painful unwinding of the dynamics at work during the expansion that preceded it. Beginning around 2003, underwriting standards for residential mortgages were significantly relaxed, leading to a sharp rise in household borrowing and in home prices.

This stocktake was especially important in light of the unusual times the UK finds itself in and the 6 7  Ramsden (2017) Haldane (2017) 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  importance of supply-side developments for the economic outlook. We didn’t change our assessment of underlying productivity, but we have revised down our assessment of spare capacity within firms, which has implications for actual productivity growth in the short term. Productivity growth is the key determinant of the economy's potential growth rate, the rate at which the economy can grow without generating inflation pressures, in other words its speed limit. The most recent data show signs of productivity growth rising in the second half of 2017. But quarterly growth has been volatile of late and we’ll have to wait and see whether the pickup is sustained in the near-term. The MPC’s best collective judgement is that productivity growth will settle at just over 1% over the next three years. That is a pickup from the pace since 2010, but it is still around half the pre-crisis rate. But in terms of the economy’s potential growth rate, these hints of somewhat higher productivity growth need to be balanced by the prospect that workforce growth will slow somewhat, due to lower inward migration and demographic effects. Overall, it’s the MPC’s view that the economy’s speed limit is likely to be around 1½%.
ICLIF is also currently expanding its outreach beyond the Asia Pacific, Middle East and African regions. These initiatives are based on the conviction that human capital development needs to also include the leadership level. Human capital development in general is of strategic importance and is integral to the success of any organisation. Building human capital capability has never been more important in today’s world. Successful businesses of the future will be the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  ones that are able to fully harness their pool of talent. This more difficult operating environment demands new abilities to manage the new challenges and the new emerging opportunities, and the ability to deal with the high level of unpredictability. The role of leaders in such an environment is to create organisations that are able to effectively respond to the changing environment and at the same time nurture flexibility and innovation. Also important is that it is also supported with high values. Effective leaders in this era, will be those that can deliver results in this environment. It is all about having clarity of purpose and aligning the entire organisation to achieve these goals. Thus, the investment in leadership development is vital to equip leaders and future leaders with the necessary capability to perform their role in the organisation.

Having an understanding of the range of possibilities, having the ability to make sound strategic decisions and excelling under the different circumstances also becomes important. The ICLIF leadership centre was established in 2003 as part of Bank Negara Malaysia’s commitment towards providing a focused and coordinated approach to enhance leadership capability and to develop world-class leaders. It was initially for the financial services industry, post the Asian Financial Crisis, with the aim of producing a new generation of leaders to steer the industry in a fundamentally transformed financial landscape. It has since been extended to corporate and public sector participation. The Centre, the first of its kind in Asia, focuses on the emerging market experience, contextualized mainly to Asia. ICLIF has now grown to offer a wide range of services in the areas that include leadership development, organizational performance, corporate governance and advisory services that are designed to enable sustainable and responsible business growth. In 2010, the ICLIF has further repositioned itself through the setting up of a new governance centre with a vision to promote high impact boards and develop world class directors who are advocates of best practices and excellence in corporate governance. Known as the Financial Institutions Directors’ Education Program or FIDE, it is currently the only governance initiative in the region that focuses exclusively on the financial sector and has trained hundreds of directors since its inception. The Centre has now been renamed as the ICLIF Leadership and Governance Centre with an enhanced faculty comprising renowned experts from the world leading institutions.
Thirdly, the significant and long-lasting growth since 2003 in the prices of oil and other energy resources considerably contributed to the international imbalances, and more particularly to Bulgaria’s current account deficit. This process accounted for the considerable growth of the expenditures for imports of energy resources incurred by the importer countries, and for the enormous cash flows channeled to the exporting countries. For Bulgaria, these developments in energy resource prices resulted in an increase in the costs of import of such products from EUR 1.7 billion in 2002 (the year after which the process of sustainable oil price increase started) to almost EUR 3.0 billion in 2005. This trend was very strongly manifested in the past year, when the country’s expenditures for energy resource imports grew by 52% against 2004. These three global trends, in combination with the approaching full-fledged EU membership of our country, produce a unique environment that the Bulgarian economy has never before faced. This makes the analysis of the processes and economic policy decisionmaking very complex and difficult. As I have already noted, in the recent several years, enormous volumes of capital were channeled into the country, the banking system acting as the natural intermediary for the effective distribution of these resources. This is not surprising at all, given the successfully implemented privatization of the banking sector in Bulgaria. At present, over 80% of the Bulgarian banking sector is owned by foreign investors, the majority of which are from euro area countries.

Looking at the prospects and having in mind the country’s strategy for expeditious accession to the euro area, however, this is a macroeconomic variable which faces the country with the greatest challenges. The inflation criterion, as defined in the Maastricht Treaty (this is not the place to deal with the issue how good this definition is), is very strict and requires a purposeful policy going beyond the monetary and fiscal policies. In Bulgaria’s case, under the currency regime of fixed exchange rate and extremely conservative fiscal policy, untapped prospects should be sought in encouraging competition and improving the business climate, thus ensuring to the economy the flexibility to respond to exogenous changes (including with regard to the prices of raw materials) and enabling supply to react more promptly to increases in demand (both domestic and external). In the past year, inflation reached 6.5 % under the strong proinflationary impact of the increase in the prices of energy resources (direct contribution of 1.0 % in the overall price increase).In addition, the largescale floods resulted in an unexpected increase in foodstuff prices (contribution of 2.6 % in the overall price increase). This year, inflation is expected to decline to 6.0%. The slow process of decreasing inflation is mainly determined by the harmonization of indirect taxes with the minimum levels in the EU, pursued early in the year.
Since the vast majority of household debt is related to housing, it is not surprising that debtto-income ratios were highest and rose most in places that experienced rapid rises in home prices. So, for example, debt-to-income ratios are among the highest in the nation in those places most associated with the housing bubble, such as California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. This relationship can also be seen within our region. For example, household debt grew more slowly than nationally and has remained relatively low in upstate New York, which was largely bypassed by the housing boom. The key exception is New York City, where a large share of residents rent their homes. Overall, city residents still have relatively low levels of mortgage debt, even though these debt levels rose during the run-up to the recession. Elsewhere in the region, debt levels tended to rise most in places where housing prices increased the most, such as Long Island and parts of New Jersey. During the crisis, in most parts of our region, households reduced their debts. But, because they had not accumulated as much during the run-up, the decline was well below the national average. In general, households in our region – with some exceptions that I will mention in a moment – have not been under as much pressure to deleverage. It’s particularly notable that in upstate New York, where debt levels are well below the national level, households have actually continued to very slowly add to their debt.

By the way, let me note that this pause occurred before mid-December, so it cannot be attributed to the recent spate of heavy snow storms. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  By contrast, New Jersey’s economy has seen no pick-up in activity and, in fact, activity there continued to decline at a modest pace through the end of 2010. We monitor Puerto Rico using an index produced by the Government Development Bank of Puerto Rico. This index shows that the recession there, which started back in 2005 – well before that experienced in the mainland – appears to have subsided. As of November of last year, activity was no longer falling, although indications of a recovery are still mixed. Turning to jobs, the latest data indicate that businesses in the region, on balance, were not expanding their workforces at the end of last year. As a result, the total number of jobs in the region has held steady, lagging behind the job growth rate experienced nationally. Much of this recent weakness in employment stems from job losses in the retail, wholesale and manufacturing sectors in our region. In the rest of the nation, these sectors expanded during the last quarter. Moreover, our state and local governments cut jobs much more severely than governments did elsewhere. At the same time, job gains in some of the region’s strongest sectors – professional and business services, finance, education and health – were not large enough to completely offset these losses.
This market for short-term credit evolved in the United States in a manner in which transactions between lenders and borrowers covered only part of each day – from late afternoon to early morning. During the middle of the day, the two large clearing banks supplied huge amounts of intraday credit to the major securities dealers. Borrowers’ assumed this credit would always be available to them, and did not appreciate the rollover risk to which they could be exposed if a clearing bank decided not to lend to them during the day. Similarly, triparty lenders underestimated their exposure to borrowers, believing that the clearing banks would always return their funds each morning. When triparty borrowers encountered funding pressures, these assumptions were starkly called into question. The private sector Triparty Repo Infrastructure Task Force, created in 2009, has made progress toward the objective of creating a more stable triparty market, but deeper change is needed to achieve real systemic risk reduction in this market. I will return to this subject later. As part of our financial stability effort, we also need to build in short-circuit mechanisms that help to dampen shocks and increase resilience. This is reflected in work underway in implementing the Basel III agreements relating to the capital conservation buffer and also on capital planning in our supervisory process. This includes requirements for financial intermediaries to cease paying dividends when economic circumstances deteriorate.

Results of the comprehensive asset-assessment exercise As you probably all know, the European bank assessment exercise, covering 130 banks, most of which will be directly overseen by the SSM, essentially comprised two components. First, an asset quality review (the AQR), which basically involved an analysis of the rigour with which bank balance sheets reflect the value of different assets. The review evaluated, as appropriate, accounting classifications, collateral values, fair value calculation methods and the recognition of borrowers’ impaired creditworthiness. Second, a stress test, evaluating how solvency would fare in two macroeconomic scenarios: a baseline scenario, considered likely, and another highly adverse scenario. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  In addition to increasing the transparency of banks’ financial position and to providing information to help ensure the effective functioning of the SSM as a supervisory authority from the outset, the analysis aimed to detect potential capital shortfalls that needed to be rapidly redressed. To do this, quantitative benchmarks were set for capital adequacy ratios – measured by the ratio of common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital to risk-weighted assets – for each part of the exercise (8% in the AQR and in the baseline scenario of the stress test, and 5.5% for the adverse scenario). The exercise was designed to high standards. This was manifest in the breadth of the field work done for the review of bank balance sheets, in the severity of the adverse macroeconomic scenario envisaged and in the wide range of risk (credit, market, sovereign, etc.) factors considered.
David Carse: The state of the banking industry in Hong Kong Speech by Mr David Carse, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, to the Hong Kong Foreign Bank Representatives Association, Hong Kong, 6 May 2003. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Thank you for the opportunity to speak again to the Hong Kong Foreign Bank Representatives Association. I want to use this opportunity to take stock of the state of the banking industry at what is a more than usually uncertain period for Hong Kong as it battles with the impact of atypical pneumonia. In Hong Kong you need to be prepared for the unexpected. At the beginning of the year, we were all worried about the looming war in Iraq and the damage that it might cause to the global economy and to Hong Kong. Little did we know that the main threat to the people and the economy of Hong Kong would come from the SARS virus. The recent performance of the banking industry The outbreak of the disease is one of a number of shocks that the banks in Hong Kong have had to cope with over the last five years. I will not dwell on the list, which will be familiar to you, but it includes two recessions, five consecutive years of consumer price deflation, a collapse in property prices of 65% from the peak in October 1997 and a surge in personal bankruptcies.

The capacity of the Bank to react to a global worsening has been already proven during the episode of 2008–2009. The Board, as has been said time and again, has the flexibility and disposition to use these tools as needed. In this scenario, our latest Monetary Policy Report assumed that a somewhat more expansionary monetary policy would be necessary in order to accommodate and reduce the negative effects of the forecast external developments. The 25 basis point reduction in the monetary policy rate we applied in our last monetary policy meeting goes in this direction. At present our policy rate is at normal levels, and projected inflation and expectations two years ahead are aligned with the target for this variable. This situation grants us the flexibility we  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  need to conduct monetary policy in the eventuality of a sharper deterioration of the external scenario with significant consequences to the Chilean economy. The financial markets have exhibited an increase in external credit premiums paid by Chilean banks and firms abroad, offset to some extent by base rates in record lows. In the local money market we have seen some frictions. As a response, the Bank has applied more active management of liquidity in domestic currency, in order to make sure that the money market operates in consistency with the orientation of our monetary policy.