samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Prospects for both the euro area and the Japanese economy seem to have worsened, if anything, at least for the coming year. In the euro area it is manufacturing which has weakened in particular, while consumption still seems to be following a relatively favourable path. Developments in the United States are still fairly strong but some slowdown is still foreseen. The situation in Brazil in recent days has created some renewed unrest in international financial markets, with a limited flight to safe assets. This, too, may affect future international activity, though the turbulence in the wake of the falling real seems, if anything, to have been less than expected. The economic statistics for Sweden suggest that industrial activity may go on weakening. The picture of total resource utilisation is still difficult to assess but there is much to suggest that the proportion of unutilised resources is still comparatively large. Forward indicators, such as incoming orders, also point to a further deterioration. At the same time, households’ expectations of their own economic situation indicate that the development of private consumption will remain relatively good. Household optimism is supported by increased employment and a favourable development of disposable income. However, the sustainability of this development is uncertain, as it was last autumn, partly because households and firms differ in their assessments of the future. Negative news from the business community may make households more pessimistic, and so may renewed unrest in financial markets.

The exchange rate The exchange rate is an important but elusive item in assessments of inflation. Last autumn, the main assessment was that the krona would become successively stronger as the financial turbulence subsided and relatively more importance was attached to the favourable economic fundamentals, which include low inflation and a growing surplus on public finances. Recently, moreover, it seems that such a process has begun. Signals of a move by Sweden towards the monetary union may perhaps have acted as a catalyst here. The new political signals about the handling of the EMU issue have brought the question of the krona’s equilibrium level to the fore. Participation in the euro area means that at some stage the krona’s exchange rate with the euro will have to be locked. In the discussion that will then be held with colleagues in Europe, the actual decision will be a matter for the Government. The Riksbank, however, is responsible for choosing the conversion rate we find reasonable on Sweden’s behalf. Meanwhile, we must bear in mind that we are dealing with negotiations between Sweden and the other EU member states, so it may be inadvisable to get tied down in matters of detail at an early stage. The Riksbank has made it clear on numerous occasions that it considers the krona to be undervalued. Much of the debate on this issue has stemmed from an article on the krona’s equilibrium exchange rate that was published early in 1996 in our Quarterly Review.
Philipp M Hildebrand: Financial Stability and Hedge Funds: Effective and Ineffective Supervision Speech by Mr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, Diskussionsforum «Nachbarn Deutschland-Schweiz: Impulse für die Zukunft», Berlin, 9 November 2005. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The hedge fund industry has grown rapidly over the past few years and it has become an important segment of global financial markets. The possibility to use leverage and a high degree of flexibility are key elements of a broad range of investment strategies which have made the hedge funds industry very profitable. Hedge funds have been an important source of innovation in the traditional asset management industry and they have rendered financial markets more liquid, more efficient and more flexible. Nonetheless, the rapid growth of the industry and the excessive use of leverage may result in potential systemic risks which are relevant to central banks, unlike prudential matters. Overall, industry leverage is difficult to measure. However, several studies suggest that it is lower than at the time of the near collapse of LTCM in 1998. Even so, temporary excessive levels of leverage with single hedge funds can not be ruled out completely. A crisis in the hedge fund industry might therefore spill over to their primary trading partners, the major investment banks.

Recent developments suggest that the expose of inflationary pressures is being shifted in general on the falling direction. The higher transmission of the recent increasing trend of the raw material prices in the world market composes a risk in terms of the increasing direction of consumer prices. The performance of exchange rate, of inflationary expectations and the country fiscal position, shall continue to condition the balance of risks in future. 2  BIS Review 122/2009  The expected relaxation of these occurrences in terms of a well-stabilised financial environment shall provide the needed spaces for the growth of monetary stimulus in the economy. BIS Review 122/2009  3
In this regard, payment systems researchers warn that if left unattended or unresolved these challenges could eventually overwhelm us and hinder the effectiveness of payment systems and hence commerce. Ladies and Gentlemen, I would therefore like to salute the SADC Payment Systems Project Team for showing good leadership. This has ensured that the basis of the evolution of payment systems in the region is collaborative and consultative, which is critical to the overarching objective of regional economic co-operation and integration. In this regard, not only have most SADC member country implemented real time settlement systems, but these developments have also been anchored on common and jointly developed business and technical specifications. Other developments include the introduction of automated clearing houses. This particular development has positively contributed to improving the processing efficiency and reducing risks associated with cheque transactions. Most importantly, perhaps, is that this development has enabled the introduction of systems such as direct deposits (or credits) and direct payments (or debits) which are truly convenient mechanisms for handling the direct deposits of salaries and wages of workers amongst others. These direct-credit and direct-debit systems are also used to handle regular monthly bills for utilities and could potentially be used in administering pensions and many other government benefits. It is also instructive to note that these developments are supported by sound legal bases that ensure that payment systems in the region are safe, practical and meet international best practice. Ladies and Gentlemen, payment instruments and mechanisms are not new in this region.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish to conclude by reminding all delegates that it is my hope that at the end of the Conference all of you will have obtained a better understanding of payment systems best practice. Equally important you will also have obtained a clearer view of the purpose of payment systems within a developmental context and the need for concerted efforts in balancing our responses in a manner that is supportive of the objective of attaining economic inclusion and growth, regional economic co-operation and integration. With these remarks, I declare the Conference officially open and wish you successful deliberations. I thank you. 2  BIS Review 36/2007
SPEECH DATE:  13/11/2019  SPEAKER:  Deputy Governor Martin Flodén  VENUE:  Örebro University and Kommuninvest, Örebro  SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm (Brunkebergstorg 11) Tel +46 8 787 00 00 Fax +46 8 21 05 31 registratorn@riksbank.se www.riksbank.se  Monetary policy in a changing world* Over the past year it has become increasingly clear that economic growth is slowing down, both in Sweden and abroad. It is not surprising that growth is slightly lower than during the strong years 2014-2018. But there have recently been increasing signs that the slowdown will be larger and occur faster than we at the Riksbank have been expecting. To determine how monetary policy should react to this, we need to understand why growth is falling. Is it due to weaker cyclical economic activity, or to deeper, structural changes in the economy? Today I intend to first briefly discuss some structural changes that may have had significance for economic developments in recent years. These are changes that may have entailed lower underlying interest rates and growth and lower inflationary pressures, and which may affect the conditions for the Riksbank's work going forward. After that, I will say a few words about the possibilities open to monetary policy if economic developments become weaker than we have forecast. In conclusion, I would like to say a few words about climate change, one of the structural changes that affects the way the economy functions.

With greater financial literacy and awareness, consumers will be protected from being exploited by predatory  2  BIS Review 4/2010  lending and investment scams, and will be able to make better informed financial decisions. To protect the rights of consumers, a Consumer Protection Framework has been developed to enhance the disclosure standards of financial products and services, the various dispute resolution mechanisms and to institute fair practice amongst the financial service providers. The Central Bank has also established a one-stop service centre for the public, providing advisory services on financial matters. Finally, a Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency has been established to provide counselling related to credit and debt management for individuals as well as to inculcate responsible money management habits. Fifth, the supporting financial infrastructure to facilitate the operations of financial institutions is an important feature of the financial system. A hurdle to access to financing is the lack of credit history. In this regard, credit bureaus have been established to enhance access to financing by encouraging borrowers to build such credit records. In Malaysia, the Central Credit Reference Information System or CCRIS, has provided credit information via an on-line system since 2001. More recently in July 2008, the SME Credit Bureau commenced operations to assist SMEs to build track records thereby providing a balanced profile of the credit standing of SMEs thus, enhancing access to financing on more favourable terms. Sixth, sufficient well trained finance professionals is vital to the performance of the financial sector.
The low water levels in the Rhine this summer – for decades a moniker for a successful social economic model that has inspired the very objectives of the European Union – show how traditional sources of economic welfare are being upended by the climate crisis. 2/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  At the same time, Russia's terrible war against Ukraine has hardened the EU's determination to make progress with the energy transition. It's true that, in the very near term, the energy crisis will lead to an increase in the use of non-gas fossil fuels. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a transition towards a low-carbon economy consistent with the EU's commitment to reaching net-zero by 2050 has increased. The main message from this should be clear. And it's identical to what I had in my notes for last year, though I will express it even more forcefully today. Climate-related and environmental risks are a source of financial risk. Even if the exact outcome is uncertain, a combination of physical and transition risks from the ongoing crises will materialise. And with global temperature increases drawing ever closer to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and the world being on track for a 2.8-degree increase by the end of the century, these risks are increasingly likely to materialise in a disruptive fashion.

Current economic and monetary policy outlook Today, a mild recession in the euro area around the turn of the year is quite plausible, as ECB President Christine Lagarde recently highlighted.1 Today, we face euro area inflation that continues to be far too high, having reached double digits in October. Today, long-term interest rates in the euro area are around 2.5 percentage points higher than when I was first due to speak to you last year. Today, as Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said just last week, - "muss die Geldpolitik auf der Hut sein".2 Monetary policy must be on its guard. And monetary policy is not just on its guard but is taking action. The increase in interest rates reflects several steps in the monetary policy normalisation which the ECB started in December 2021. These were the phasing-out of our pandemic support measures, the subsequent full phasing-out of our net asset purchases, and three consecutive policy rate hikes across our July, September and October monetary policy meetings totalling an unprecedented 200 basis points. Today, it is not evident that the observed turn in macroeconomic sentiment will substantially alter the inflation outlook, even if a mild recession were indeed to materialise. Against this backdrop, we have communicated that we will continue to promptly withdraw monetary policy support and move policy rates further to a level that is consistent with inflation reverting back to our 2% target in the medium term.
30  9  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  9  During the first three Industrial Revolutions, the skills workers needed to keep one step ahead of the machine were largely cognitive. Machines undertook largely manual (“doing”) tasks, which had previously used labour-intensive technologies. Cognitive (“thinking”) tasks remained, by and large, the exclusive domain of humans. So institutions emerged to nurture thinking skills, largely in children and young adults, to increase the chances of successful transition to the cognitively-intensive future world of work. In children, the most important of these institutional innovations was probably compulsory schooling. For children between the ages of 5 and 10, this was formally introduced in the UK with the Elementary Education Act of 1880. It was extended to age 11 in 1893 and age 12 in 1899. The Fisher Act of 1918 provided for compulsory education to age 14 and part-time education to age 18. Compulsory full-time education was extended to age 15 in 1947 and age 16 in 1972. 33  As these pieces of social infrastructure developed, so too did standards of educational attainment and cognitive skills. The fraction of the population aged 15 and over that attended secondary school rose from 23% to 60% between 1950 and 2010. 34  In the 1950s, less than 11% of the relevant age group passed five  or more GCSE O levels in England and Wales. By 2010, that had reached almost 80%.

In this edition, to the very illustrious list of previous winners of the Germán Bernácer Prize, we add, with all due merit, Professor Nicholas Bloom, a British economist, who is today Professor in the Economics Department at Stanford University. Professor Bloom graduated in Economics from Cambridge University, obtained his masters at Oxford University and his Ph.D. at University College London. He has been awarded the 2010 Frisch Medal of the Econometric Society, is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and an associate editor of, among other journals, Econometrica and the Quarterly Journal of Economics and Management Science. He has published many articles on economic and management issues in top journals, including the American Economic Review, Econometrica and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Professor Bloom’s two main areas of research are macroeconomic uncertainty and firm organization and productivity. In the first area, his main contributions are to show that macroeconomic uncertainty increases substantially in the aftermath of significant shocks. He also shows that during these periods of uncertainty firm’s investment responds less to demand shocks. This set of contributions has promoted research that explores the importance of variations in volatility to explain macroeconomic fluctuations and the decisions of agents in the economy. In the second area, firm organization and productivity, he shows that social capital, represented by trust, increases aggregate productivity by affecting the organization of firms. He also shows the implications of these organization techniques on the implementation of Information and Telecommunication technologies across firms.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  If monetary policy only took into account the low level of inflation, the key policy rate would be rapidly reduced and kept close to zero for a good while. Inflation might then pick up faster, partly as a result of a weaker krone. In the light of the trade-off against other considerations, however, the Bank does not want to accelerate the pace of inflation. The result would be a pronounced impact on output and employment and increase the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. When weight is also given to robustness and to stabilising developments in the real economy, the interest rate path will be higher. As a result of ample cross-border labour flows, changes in competitive conditions and new trade patterns, consumer price inflation has now been below 2.5 percent for a period. Prices for domestically produced goods have risen considerably more than consumer prices, reflecting the improvement in Norway’s terms of trade. Incomes, output and employment are growing at a solid pace and capacity utilisation is estimated to be above a normal level. Household debt and house prices have increased more than incomes. In today’s situation, it is appropriate to use a few years to bring up inflation. The interest rate has therefore not been reduced further. A higher key policy rate could have curbed debt growth and demand pressures in the Norwegian economy.

Kevin Stiroh: A perspective on supervisory objectives and tradeoffs Keynote remarks by Mr Kevin Stiroh, Executive Vice President of the Financial Institution Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Clearing House Association Conference on “Optimal Bank Capital Regulation,” Columbia University, New York City, 23 February 2017. * * * Accompanying charts  Introduction Good afternoon. Thank you very much for the kind introduction. Since the financial crisis, the topic of today’s conference—Optimal Bank Capital Regulation— has been of considerable interest to academics, the official sector, and market participants. Some have argued for dramatically higher capital requirements, while others have argued with equal conviction for substantially lower capital requirements. I am happy to be here today to offer some thoughts about potential trade-offs across supervisory tools and objectives, and how one might consider those trade-offs within the current supervisory framework. I conclude that the U.S. banking system has become considerably more resilient since the financial crisis, which is a necessary condition for the sustainable provision of financial services to households and businesses that supports the growth and stability of the U.S. economy. My comments today are my own and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Supervisory Objectives and Trade-Offs A well-functioning financial system intermediates between savers and borrowers, supports a robust payments system, and facilitates risk transfer and the efficient allocation of capital.
In addition to offsite and onsite, modern supervision includes closer, more frequent and less formal contacts between supervisors and banks. These contacts take place on different levels – on the top level of Boards and managements but also on various mid-levels and staff levels. Sometimes also the owners are contacted. The aim of the contacts is to “know your banks” meaning that the supervisors should assess how the banks operate, and if the bank managements and owners are competent and honest. Contacts, onsite and offsite supervision should  6  BIS Review 104/2006  be integrated so that the onsite supervisor benefits from the knowledge gained from the offsite monitoring, the contacts and vice versa. A good way to achieve this is to establish bank-specific groups of supervisors composed of offsite as well as onsite staff who are responsible for the supervision of a specific banking group. There is a strong development towards what is known as risk-based supervision although a globally agreed definition of this concept is still lacking. Under risk-based supervision the supervisory authority uses its main resources on the major risks. With this approach, the focus is on larger banks but also on banks with more risky activities and on banks which have shown to be weaker or more vulnerable than the others. A risk-based approach also means that the supervisor focuses on collecting information from banks about those activities or operations where there might be material risks.

There is a natural demand for good banking services in all countries and if you, the authorities and policy-makers, set up a reasonable framework for banking, I am convinced that you will soon see applications for new banks or for existing banks to change their structures, activities or mode of operations. In achieving an efficient banking system, the authorities are faced by a number of questions: What is the optimal number of banks? In modernising a banking system you would like to have a “reasonable number” of banks – not too few but not too many. In many countries the lifting of the old and restrictive regulations leads to an influx of a large number of mostly small “family-owned” banks but many of these tend to have overoptimistic plans for their activities and are closed rather soon leading to consolidation of the banking sector. Some depositors and other counterparties could suffer losses from dealing with these banks. Are such events necessary steps in the development or could they be avoided? In my experience, some countries after scrapping their old regulations became ultraliberals and provided licenses for banking on too lenient grounds. They did not properly evaluate the prospects for the banks to conduct profitable business in a competitive environment and they set the requirement for basic minimum capital far too low. But having said that I would warn against doing the opposite – to let the authorities decide how many banks there ought to be and then distribute a fixed number of licenses.