samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Twenty years ago, the City was anxiously awaiting its revolution - Big Bang. If ever there was an example of structural change in response to global competition, Big Bang was it. None of the leading broking and jobbing firms of the time now survives. Yet the City, and the people who work here, are more successful today than at any time in its history. Few in 1986 could have imagined how much the City would change and how far its domain would extend - from Canary Wharf to the West End, no longer a single Square Mile but a banker’s dozen. A key ingredient of the City’s success has been, as the Lord Mayor remarked, a stable set of rules within which to play up and play the game. Simple, clear rules of the game are essential for a market economy to function. But excessive regulation makes life difficult for us all. In March of this year I received a letter from a certain government department which read as follows: “Dear Mr. King; I am writing to inform you about how the changes to Crown immunity … in relation to planning legislation, will affect flying national flags … . Flags are defined as advertisements under the Town and Country Planning (Control of Advertisements) Regulations 1992. Under these regulations you are allowed to fly the national flag of any country … from a single vertical flagpole without requiring the prior express consent of the local planning authority.

Markets need to form a view on the probabilities of different paths of future interest rates in order to price a wide range of financial instruments. So they are interested in what central banks say. In recent months both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have found it far from straightforward to convey the likely trajectory of future interest rates. And the Fed announced three weeks ago that Chairman Bernanke had established a subcommittee of the FOMC to examine a number of “communication issues”. There is now a lively debate about how, and to what extent, central banks should try to communicate their intentions with respect to future official interest rates to financial markets and the wider public. At the Bank of England, our approach is to keep it as simple as possible. We don’t say where interest rates will go next for the simple reason that we don’t know. And it would be quite misleading to pretend otherwise. The MPC reaches a new judgment each month, made afresh in the light of all the new information about the prospects for inflation. We don’t decide in advance. So trying to give direct hints on the path of interest rates over the next few months risks deceiving financial markets into believing there are definite plans for the next few months when no such plans exist. But in order to form judgements about the likely path of interest rates over somewhat longer time horizons, markets do require some information from the central bank.
Asia is therefore committed to taking the important steps today to ensure our resilience to future shocks and thus secure the stronger foundations for our collective growth and stability. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches

Our approach is preventive, pre-emptive and prescriptive (where specific rules are needed). This morning, allow me to outline three key features, namely: a)  a strong legal and regulatory framework that is in line with international standards;  b)  an effective supervisory regime; as well as  c)  a collaborative partnership with the industry. A strong legal and regulatory framework 10 A strong legal and regulatory framework is the basis of any effective regime. Over the years, MAS has updated our AML/CFT Notices for financial institutions several times, to take into account the latest global developments, as well as to incorporate emerging best practices. Our efforts to stay ahead of the curve are recognised internationally. In the 2008 FATF evaluation exercise, Singapore is assessed to have a strict and rigorous AML/CFT regime. We have agreed to undergo another evaluation in 2015. 11 We should not be complacent, for the reasons that I mentioned earlier. MAS will continue to strengthen the AML/CFT regime for financial institutions, to maintain relevance and effectiveness. Later this month, we will be issuing a public consultation on proposed amendments to a range of MAS’ AML/CFT Notices for financial institutions. This round of amendments draws reference from the revised FATF recommendations as well as international best practices, and should not be a surprise for those of you who have been following these developments. While there are a few new requirements in response to FATF recommendations, many of the proposed changes formalise existing practices and supervisory expectations.
However, with a rule of action, the application of regulations itself becomes a function of a number of variables that vary over time:  itlending  it   t ( z ( z , lt , yt ,...)) . Various institutional arrangements can be imagined, based on the distribution of responsibility for assessing the variables in the function, determining rules of action or functional form and, finally, for translating the function into actual regulations. The latter would probably require an element of discretionary decision-making. One possibility would be for the central bank to determine the policy rate ( it ) and for the supervisory authority to determine regulations, that is to say both z and z (...) , as is the case in Sweden. Another possibility would be for the central bank not only to determine the policy rate, but also to determine the time-varying regulations through taking responsibility for the application of the rule of action ( z (...) ), while the actual implementation of the non-time variable regulations ( z ) would be the responsibility of the supervisory authority. A variation of this would be for the central bank to be completely responsible for the implementation of the time-varying regulations. Finally, there is the possibility of the central bank taking responsibility for all regulation and supervision. At present, it is still too early to say whether the international debate will conclude that one form of organisation is better than any other.

This “credit expansion externality” implies a market failure and may justify public intervention. As experience has shown that it is precisely the bursting of property bubbles that has played such a decisive role in several financial crises, there exists reason to believe that such credit expansion externality may be particularly great on the property market. According to one view, a central bank should try to counteract the increase of property prices and credit volumes by keeping the policy rate higher than would otherwise be necessary during the upturn. Central banks should lean against the wind, as this is usually described. The idea is that the increase in property prices and credit volumes will thus be smaller, but also that the decline, in return, will be significantly less dramatic (Figure 8). If the development of property prices and credit volumes becomes more balanced, it is also assumed that the real economy and inflation will be more stable. While growth will undoubtedly be somewhat lower in the upturn, it will, on the other hand, make it possible to avoid the deep recession that may be the consequence of a fall in property prices. BIS Review 68/2010  13  Figure 8 Leaning against the wind Property prices and lending Without ” leaning” With ” leaning”  time  One complication arising in this context is that it is not entirely easy to incorporate the risks that may be associated with the rapid increase of property prices and credit volumes into the normal work of forecasting and analysis.
Our CBDC experiments, on which I will elaborate in a few minutes, also led us to develop our own permissioned blockchain (called DL3S- Distributed Ledger for Securities Settlement System) in collaboration with an IT provider. We have also drawn on artificial intelligence for various uses, such as a new forex trading tool and supervisory tools. The question that now attracts public attention is whether central banks’ investigation phases will lead to the development of CBDCs. Almost all of that attention is focused on retail CBDCs. At the same time, we can sometimes hear, and not only from commercial banks, that they are “a solution in search of a problem”. iii In my view, this phrase simply misses the point. What we are currently doing is keeping our eyes and minds open on this new way of making “public money” available. In Europe, we are halfway through our  Page 4 sur 5 investigation phase: the Eurosystem will make its decision by the end of 2023, before a potential launch in 2026 or 2027. I am sure President Christine Lagarde will be able to shed some light on the project. Beyond purely technical considerations, a retail CBDC could play an anchor role in the digital world, similar to the role played by banknotes in the physical world,iv and hence preserve the accessibility and usability of central bank money.

Fintech, as it is known, seems to be the next big thing. It’s true that, in continental Europe, fintechs still account for just a small share of the markets for banking, payment services and asset management. Still, over the past years, they have received a lot of attention and a lot of funds. Fintechs are on the rise. They have entered the markets, and they are competing with banks – at least in some parts of the value chain. The question is: where will this innovation take us? Is it the end of banking as we know it? Will it create new risks? As I said before, it is hard to guess how innovations will evolve and easy to get it wrong. That said, let us take a very brief look at some potential futures. Scenario one: banks might embrace the digital trend and team up with fintechs. For banks this would be one of the more benign outcomes. And it seems to be happening right now. Scenario two: fintechs might break up the value chain of banking. Banks would end up losing revenue, market share and direct contact with clients. The result might be a more fragmented market where some players operate outside the scope of regulation and supervision. Scenario three: banks might still end up being crowded out. At the same time, however, the fintechs could be swallowed up by big tech companies, such as Google, Amazon and Facebook. The market would become more concentrated, less competitive and less diversified.
Through this program, several opportunities for collaboration on training have been identified, particularly in the context of existing plans for human resource development at the central bank, the CBM’s strategic plan for onsite and offsite supervision, and a future CBM training institute. And today, with the opening of this Maybank branch, marks another milestone in the relationship between Myanmar and Malaysia. The granting of a banking license to Maybank provides Malaysia with yet another avenue to participate and contribute towards the economic development of Myanmar. Being a responsible corporate citizen It is in the interest of financial institutions to be a responsible corporate citizen and contribute to the flourishing and wellbeing of society. Financial institutions must adapt to their domestic environment and be mindful of the needs of the community in which they operate in. Access to financial services for all segments of society is important for inclusive and sustainable growth for an economy. The low and moderate income households must be served as they represent the future. There are at least two dimensions to being a responsible corporate citizen. The first dimension is to design and grow business responsibly, by providing ethical and sustainable financial products and services to all segments of society. Part of this essential component is promoting greater levels of financial literacy and understanding of financial products among the local community. Banks need to strive to deliver the highest standards of service to all. The second dimension is the act itself of giving back to the community.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: ASEAN financial integration, collaboration with Myanmar and other challenges for Malaysia Speech by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Maybank Myanmar Grand Opening, Yangon, Myanmar, 2 October 2015. *  *  *  A very good evening, it is an auspicious occasion. Congratulations to Maybank on the opening of its branch in Yangon, Myanmar. I am very confident that the launching of this first branch marks the beginning of a productive, innovative and meaningful journey for Maybank in contributing to the economic transformation of Myanmar and in particular the development of its financial sector. I am confident that this branch will be the first of many to come. My remarks today will touch on three subjects: Firstly, the importance of ASEAN financial integration; secondly, the close and long-standing friendship between Myanmar and Malaysia; and the role of financial institution as a responsible corporate citizen. ASEAN: Story of the future that begins today Members of ASEAN have adopted an ambitious, unique and comprehensive vision for an economically and financially integrated region. I term it as unique since we are embarking on this process in a phased and gradual manner. Each member country is given the flexibility to progress towards integration based on its state of readiness. It is an inclusive approach and a long term strategic plan to unlock the growth potential of our region in the coming decades. The case for integration is self-evident.
The problems I have seen are based on a combination of inflation having clearly undershot the target, the Riksbank’s inflation forecasts having been more optimistic than those of other analysts, the Executive Board’s repo-rate paths having indicated a tighter monetary policy than the market and analysts have expected and the repo-rate paths having been revised down time after time. I have said that in such a situation it is better to cut the rate immediately rather than continuing to present a repo-rate path that is not perceived by outsiders as entirely credible. However, these problems have become a little less important in recent months as other analysts’ forecasts of inflation and the repo rate have been revised up. Thirdly, it is not self-evident that taking into account household debt means setting a higher repo rate than we would otherwise have done. The current repo rate, 1 per cent, is undeniably low. In the long run, the repo rate will be raised to much higher levels. But we cannot raise the repo rate until we see that inflation has clearly begun to move towards the target of 2 per cent. And when this happens will of course depend on monetary policy. If we cut the repo rate now, inflation will rise faster towards the target. If the repo rate is left unchanged it will take longer before inflation begins to rise, and this in turn means that it will take a long time before the repo rate can be raised.

In our latest Financial Stability Report and Monetary Policy Report we conveyed clear messages, as to the need to prioritize initiatives that contribute to strengthening the functioning of the financial system and avoid those that could harm it. The Chilean economy is in the process of resolving macroeconomic imbalances and has the task of repairing the buffers that have allowed it to mitigate the impacts of external shocks in the past. For this reason, it is particularly important to prioritize those aimed at promoting savings, strengthening the resilience of financial systems, promoting innovation and financial inclusion. A properly regulated financial system contributes to financial stability and inclusion and is also critical to support economic development and the population’s well-being. 17
For example, we have witnessed how the interconnections between internal and external markets have been changing the way in which different factors affect inflation and how communication has become increasingly important for policy effectiveness. All this in an environment where we have been able to access and process massive amounts of data and a wealth of information. In the next few days, the CBC will publish a new supplement that brings together research on these topics and highlights their relevance to our work. This publication complements those we have already released in previous years on trend growth and the labor market and is part of the Bank’s ongoing research agenda. Back to our central projection scenario: it assumes that, going forward, consumption will continue to be driven by the withdrawal of pension savings, although the second withdrawal is estimated to have a weaker impact than the first, partly because the drop in income caused by the pandemic has already been more than offset by the measures adopted, and the resources that could be withdrawn are concentrated in the higher income quintiles—which are less motivated to use them in consumption (Figure 8). Combining the effects of the recovery in labor income, government transfers and the withdrawal of pension savings, private consumption es forecast to increase by about 11% in 2021, after receding some 7% this year. The increased mobility and sectoral disparity of the economic recovery has also been reflected in the labor market.

Both the incidence of student loans and average loan size are by far greater in for-profit institutions than in comparable public colleges. Given the importance of post-secondary education in our nation’s future, and the key role that human capital plays in our nation’s growth, we at the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  New York Fed will continue to analyze the growth of the private for-profits in particular, and post-secondary institutions in general, in our region and the nation. I will now ask Jaison Abel to discuss economic conditions in our region. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
As regards the euro area crisis management instruments, we welcome the decisions of the Heads of State or Government of the euro area to strengthen the EFSF and the ESM in a number of areas. First, there is now greater flexibility in the euro area crisis mechanisms to act as backstops, thanks to the decision to accelerate the entry into force of the European Stability Mechanism, ESM, to July 2012 and for the European Financial Stability Facility, EFSF, to remain active in financing programmes that have started until mid-2013. Second, the clarification that as regards private sector involvement, the euro area will adhere to established IMF practice is also helpful in reassuring investors. Third, the decision to include an emergency procedure into the voting rules of the ESM1 is essential for effective decision making procedure, especially in crisis situations. As regards the EFSF, the Governing Council of the ECB has decided that the ECB will be able to act as agent for the EFSF in its market operations. The ECB – probably supported by a number of National Central Banks – will make its technical infrastructure and know-how available to the EFSF. The technical and legal preparations have started and we hope to complete them in January. III. Credit rating agencies  The activities of credit rating agencies, notably in relation to sovereigns as well as the EFSF, have lately occupied centre stage in the debate in Europe. Calls for better regulation have become louder.

As you know, regarding interest rates, the Governing Council early December decided to lower the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, following a 25 basis point decrease on 3 November 2011. As regards the short-term growth outlook for the euro area, the intensified financial market tensions are continuing to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty. Euro area economic activity should recover, albeit very gradually, in the course of 2012, as also projected by Eurosystem staff in early December. Substantial downside risks to this economic outlook nevertheless remain. With regard to price developments, inflation was 3.0% in November. Inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%, which view is also broadly confirmed in the December staff projections. Given the environment of weaker growth in the euro area and globally, underlying cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should also remain modest. Risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain broadly balanced. The latest monetary data reflect the heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Looking beyond short-term volatility, the monetary analysis indicates that the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate. The Governing Council of the ECB is determined to ensure that inflation expectations continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Let me now turn to the latest non-standard measures.
The factors that could trigger such a sequence of events include, for instance, US share prices continuing to fall or a decline in house prices. On the other hand, developments in the USA could be stronger and the positive spread effects to the surrounding world greater than we have estimated. A large part of Sweden’s exports is to the euro area and economic activity in these countries is therefore particularly important to us. The improved growth prospects in the USA will contribute to the recovery in Europe. However, a continued weak development on the European labour market and an unexpectedly high inflation rate will probably subdue the recovery somewhat. Germany, which is an important market for Swedish products, is still showing a very weak development. According to some leading indicators, European companies have become more optimistic recently. However, profit margins have been pushed down by the fact that productivity has fallen and when productivity falls, labour unit costs rise, which in turn reduces the scope for investment. This could be an explanation for the recent high inflation rate in the euro area. When the level of economic activity rises and productivity increases, the inflation rate is expected to subside. In addition, the high inflation rate can be partly explained by “secondary” effects from earlier price increases on food and energy, and possibly by rounding-off effects on the introduction of euro banknotes. (Diagram 3 - inflation in the euro area) Growth prospects are good for several important Swedish export markets in the rest of Europe.

The criticism of a Swedish membership of the Eurosystem has often concerned the possibility of being able to conduct an independent stabilisation policy under these circumstances. This is based on a supposition that the Swedish economy could for some reason become out of synch with the economic developments in the euro are, what is termed an asymmetric shock. An independent monetary policy and currency, in addition to fiscal policy, gives us the opportunity to stabilise our economy ourselves a form of shock-absorber that will be lost if we have a joint monetary policy steered by inflation and economic prospects throughout the entire euro area. This was the primary reason why the Calmfors Commission, which examined the consequences for Sweden of participation in the third stage of EMU, concluded that Sweden should wait before joining the Eurosystem until the Swedish labour market and wage formation showed sufficient flexibility to be 1 able to manage a serious shock. It is often forgotten that one of the points of the EU is that the union shall function as an insurance; that the countries are strong standing together than they are standing alone. In practice, it is also the case that when the Swedish economy has come out of synch with the euro area, this has not been due to shocks over which we had no control, but to mistakes made in our own economic policy.