samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
As a result, inflation expectations represent an important link in the monetary transmission mechanism – especially through the term structure of interest rates – and greatly influence the central bank’s ability to achieve price stability. It is crucial for a central bank to monitor inflation expectations, making sure that they remain well anchored and consistent with policy objectives. Since the economy is constantly buffeted by unanticipated shocks, short-term inflation expectations should reflect the effects of these shocks. For example, if energy prices increase suddenly due to a supply disruption, short-term inflation expectations should move up. This is completely consistent with medium-term price stability, if at the same time, forward inflation expectations – that is, expectations of inflation for after the supply disruption ends – do not move. This stability of longer-term inflation expectations in the face of movements in short-term inflation expectations is the hallmark of sound, effective and credible monetary policy. In standard macroeconomic models it is trivial to measure inflation expectations: under the rational expectations assumption, any economic agent in the model could produce the unique inflation expectation for any horizon. In the real world, central banks must rely on various indirect approaches to measure inflation expectations: market-based measures, surveys of professionals such as economists and market participants, and surveys of households. All three types of measures have advantages and drawbacks. It is therefore important for a central bank to use a variety of measures that complement one another.

That is why, for example, we have clarified expectations about how firms should manage risks from cryptoassets and why, with the FCA, we set up and chaired the Artificial Intelligence Public-Private Forum to help us better understand the impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning on financial services. [3] It is also why we published this July, with the FCA and Bank as Financial Markets Infrastructure regulator, a discussion paper on critical third parties proposing proportionate measures to strengthen their resilience in a manner that supports the openness of the UK as a financial centre. [4] Good prudential regulation also changes to meet new sorts of risk, which is why we were amongst the first regulators globally to develop standards for operational resilience. [5] It turns out that white blood cells that target immune responses at threats, and direct them away from our own bodies, are called ‘regulatory T cells’, although I doubt they were named after prudential regulators! But they do what we need to do when we choose to take action. We need to boost the health of the markets we oversee, by letting our ‘regulatory T-cells’ target the threats we face in a tailored manner, leaving the healthy parts undisturbed. This is why, for example, we are  Page 4  building what we call a Strong and Simple framework for small domestic banks and building societies for whom Basel standards were not designed.
The expansionary fiscal policy provided the economic activity with the necessary impulse over the course of the year; however it was also accompanied by higher public debt and upward pressures on Government T-bill yields. The deepening of budget deficit resulted in substantial public debt increase, which as at year-end 2009 accounted for about 59.5 percent of GDP. The Bank of Albania encourages measures to reduce the budget deficit and public debt in the medium run. Lower budget deficit and public debt levels will provide more room in accessing of funds from the private sector and boost confidence in Albania’s macroeconomic stability. In addition, these measures will help to create appropriate conditions for attracting foreign capital in the form of private loans or foreign direct investment. BIS Review 78/2010  3  1.3  Monetary developments and financial markets  Financial intermediation in economy was conditioned by the contraction of financial resources, wavering of confidence in financial institutions and the decline of demand for banking loans in 2009. At the end of March, deposits fell to 55 percent of GDP compared to 63 percent in September 2008. The withdrawal of deposits during the first quarter of the year brought about the slowdown of money growth in economy. Banking activity recovered slowly during the following three quarters. Money supply grew by an average of 6 percent this year or about twice less than the previous year.

These measures proved successful in curtailing the negative consequences and in fully restoring confidence in the banking system. Subsequently, the Albanian banking system maintained sound balance sheets and was in full capacity to carry out its function as a financial intermediary and supplier of the economy with payment instruments. The developments of the first quarter of 2010 attest to the full restoring of public confidence in the banking system. Currently, the level of deposits has exceeded that of end September 2008, prior to the beginning of the withdrawal of deposits. In what follows, I would like to dwell on the aforementioned topics. 1. Monetary policy and price stability  In accordance with its legal mandate, the Bank of Albania’s monetary policy has been designed and implemented in order to achieve and maintain price stability. During 2009, the main risks to price stability have arisen from the slowdown of economic activity, wavering of economic agents’ confidence, imbalanced external position of the Albanian economy and the exchange rate depreciation. Despite these challenges, the Bank of Albania managed to keep the CPI inflation within the target. Let us dwell on these elements further. 1.1  Economic growth  The global context that accompanied Albania’s economic and financial performance over the past year was not at all favourable. The year 2009 featured contracted global economic activity as a result of the economic downturn in advanced economies and considerable economic slowdown in emerging countries. Global economy posted the first negative growth rate of the last 50 years.
Mr King explores lessons from the UK labour market Text of the Employment Policy Institute’s Fourth Annual Lecture delivered by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mervyn King, held in London on 1/12/98. It is both an honour and a challenge to deliver the fourth EPI lecture. It is an honour to follow in such distinguished footsteps, and it is a challenge to tackle the subject of the link between monetary policy and the labour market. Few subjects are as emotive. Wages, jobs and unemployment feature as frequently in the popular press as they do in academic articles. The Bank of England must learn from one in order to convey our message in the other. And we are fortunate in that labour economics is a field in which British economists have been – and continue to be – at the forefront of research. That I can say objectively because I am not myself a labour economist. So tonight I shall be exploring lessons from the labour market for the Monetary Policy Committee. The Employment Policy Institute has played an important role in bringing together those undertaking research on labour markets and those involved with policy decisions. In particular, its Employment Audit provides a valuable commentary on current developments. The labour market is unlike any other market. Indeed, for many people the very language of economists – equilibrium unemployment, market-clearing wages – seems incompatible with the human dimension of unemployment and deprivation.

For the day when this event will not only be our dream, but also our reality, the National Bank will continue to promote the fulfillment of its goals and tasks in accordance with European standards and best practices, which is of exceptional importance for the future the process of admission of the country into the membership of the European Union. Therefore, I assure you that we, the management and the employees of the National Bank, will be committed to this Project, we will openly and constructively cooperate during the implementation of all project activities, and use this opportunity provided by the European Union for further strengthening the capacity and credibility of our institution. At the end of my speech, let me wish the successful work of the project leaders and all the experts participating in the Project. I believe that after eight months we will be able to summarize a successfully completed Project, and in the period after that, after we have implemented the recommendations, we will write one of the many historical pages about the contribution of our institutions to the European integration processes of our country. Thank you! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
If I compare the euro area – but I think this would also be true for Europe as a whole – with the US, we have public spending as a proportion of GDP that is significantly higher than in the US. We have a social safety net and social protection in general which is more comprehensive than in the US, and hence the role of automatic stabilisers is significantly more important. It represents a much larger part of GDP. An order of magnitude could be that for the same decrease of GDP, you would have perhaps twice as much influence of automatic stabilisers as a percentage of GDP in the euro area as compared with the US. A large level of public spending as a proportion of GDP is not something that we necessarily have to be very proud of, but it is some kind of “amortiser” in periods that are very difficult. FT: In Britain you’re looking at a potential 8 per cent budget deficit next year of GDP, and in America the word is for the next fiscal boost, name a number and go higher. And the doctrine of overwhelming force, the Powell doctrine, will be used to throw everything at this problem. Now, do you see risks in that approach, or are you sympathetic?

When you look at the level of savings as a proportion of household revenue in the various countries, you see to what extent some of them are already largely taking into account the expectation that tomorrow you’ll have to face up to additional taxation and additional financing needs for public funds. FT: In the US, what is really striking about Europeans is that some of them understand that this crisis is so exceptional that in a way you may have to put aside the rules. These are exceptional circumstances. But on the other hand there are other Europeans who just feel that we’ve used so much effort and political will to put together and agree on those rules that whatever we do, we mustn’t abandon them. Now, where do you come down on these two sides of the equation? Trichet: Incidentally, we had an exceptional relationship with the other side of the Atlantic in a large number of areas, including the supply of dollar liquidity. We have had a lot of “premiers” in terms of our own decisions, and “premiers” in terms of the close cooperation and very confident cooperation with other central banks. This is something which is important. But I’m cautious. I take the Stability and Growth Pact as it is, with its provision for exceptional circumstances. But it would be a mistake not to take into account fully the situation of the various economies.
The recent experience of the credit derivatives market shows that ambiguities can arise even in standardised documentation, and the sponsors and users of the documentation need to be alert to this and make changes where necessary. The link with operational risk But the bottom line is that standardisation will reduce the risk that something goes wrong with the documentation. This feeds in turn into reduced legal risk, which is included within the definition of operational risk adopted by the Basel Committee. This defines operational risk as “the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people or systems or from external events”. This definition focuses on the causes of operational risk - internal processes, people, systems or external events. Operational risk losses can be further classified into various “event types” and assigned to each of a bank’s major business lines. By classifying losses in this way, banks are better placed to identify appropriate risk controls and to assess the impact of these. In its draft paper on Sound Practices for the Management and Supervision of Operational Risk, the Basel Committee has identified seven main loss event types for operational risk. These include losses related to “execution, delivery and process management” within which resides documentation risk. Why has the Basel Committee decided to focus on operational risk? The answer lies in the growing diversity and complexity of banking operations arising from well-known phenomena such as globalisation, the growing sophistication of financial technology and outsourcing.

Dear participants, At the conclusion of my address today, I would like to draw your attention on a consolidated annual publication of the Bank of Albania – our Calendar 2012, the jubilee year of the 100th anniversary of Albania’s Declaration of Independence. Calendar 2012 features a cycle of contemporary works of art, which elegantly combine traditional and modern elements. This artistic ingenuity provides a varicoloured and loyal depiction of the long and toilsome journey of the Bank of Albania and the Lek through good and bad days, times of war and peace, subtle and radical changes. These fellow travellers have always succeeded in renewing and strengthening their shared foundation, which is your trust and confidence. This thread sews together in this calendar, art and the Bank of Albania, as two components that create, uphold and promote values. The Calendar is an artful portraying of our central banks traits such as stability, independence, confidence, transparency and financial literacy, which nourish our dream of a common European future. This future rests in our hands like a golden globe of prosperity and happiness.
•  Singapore’s total market capitalisation has grown by over 150% in the last decade, to 270 billion US dollars in 2011. We are the fourth largest foreign exchange trading centre in the world. •  FX and FX derivatives turnover in Singapore has more than tripled in the last decade, with an average daily traded volume of about 360 billion US dollars. We are Asia’s leading commodity derivatives trading hub. •  Most of the major global banks have their regional hubs in Singapore. •  According to some estimates, Singapore accounts for more than half of Asia’s OTC commodity derivatives trades. To succeed in the new financial landscape, Singapore must comprehensively support Asia’s long-term financing needs. Let me highlight two strategic areas where we will harness our diverse financial ecosystem: debt capital market and infrastructure financing. Debt capital market In a world of deleveraging and higher regulatory constraints on banks, it is now more urgent than ever to develop strong capital markets to complement bank lending and help to provide a better match for longer term funding requirements. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The fundamentals for a strong debt capital market are in place. •  The Singapore bond market is fully accessible to all issuers and investors globally with no capital controls, hedging restrictions, or withholding taxes. •  There is diversity of issuers – financial institutions, corporations and government agencies. •  There is variety in instruments issued, including structured and securitised debt.

Real GDP growth in Cyprus expanded by about 6 percent over 2022H1, mainly driven by a faster than expected recovery in tourismrelated activities and, to a lesser extent, by growth in information and communication activities and in professional services. At the same time, weakness in the Cyprus GDP performance could be expected to become visible over 2022H2 and 2023, primarily owing to the anticipated worsening in the international environment outlook. More specifically, the impact of the war is expected to be channelled directly, via the disruption in trade of services and the rise in commodity prices, in particular oil and wheat, as well as indirectly, via the impact on business and consumer confidence. Our exposure to Russia via the export of services side is the most significant vulnerability, with the most important exposure relating to financial and other business services and, to a lesser extent, tourism, transport as well as telecommunications, computer and information services. At the same time, it is important to mention significant adaptation effects for example in the area of tourism, losses from the Russian market have been covered to a large extent by other markets such as the UK, Poland, Germany, Israel and Scandinavian countries. The labour market has also been exhibiting continued resilience. Over 2022H1, the unemployment rate reached 6,7 percent, well below the 7,5 percent rate recorded in 2021. The resilience of the Cyprus labour market is in line with business views about expecting a relatively small impact from the war.
So I am very grateful for the opportunity to expand on our role here today. I want to cover three main themes. First, I want to explain the Bank's approach to the exercise of monetary policy, and then, second, give you some assessment of the current state of the British economy. And, third, I want to discuss the Bank's other key role - that of maintaining financial stability in the system as a whole. That role is, I think, less well understood than our monetary policy responsibilities. But financial stability is every bit as crucial to our national welfare. So I'd like to spend a few minutes setting out our objectives, and picking up on one or two themes of current concern. Maintaining monetary stability I turn first, though, to the Bank's better known role, that of maintaining monetary stability. Our target for monetary policy is extremely clear. We aim for 2½% inflation in retail prices (excluding mortgage payments) at all times. That target is set by the Chancellor. And it is symmetric: that is to say, we worry as much about being below the target as we do about being above it. That makes sense because the problems of severe deflation are just as great as the problems of severe inflation. Since May 1997, when the current arrangements were put in place, RPIX inflation has averaged 2.3%.

It is clear that the events of 11 September, and their aftermath, have given rise to considerable uncertainties. There is plenty, particularly overseas, for central bankers to concern themselves with. When I spoke at a conference last week, one newspaper commented that I always looked worried. Well, of course, central bankers are paid to worry. But when reviewing the economic situation we need to achieve a sense of balance. The data do not all point in a single direction. Certainly in the run-up to the November MPC meeting we will need to take a careful look, as I indicated earlier, at all the data. Our feet will be on the ground, but our eyes will scan the horizon! Thank you very much. 4  BIS Review 87/2001
So despite these crises elsewhere, growth in Sweden remained stable at an average annual rate of 3 to 4%. When the unrest had subsided, the repo rate was raised to the current level of 3.75%. The Riksbank has heralded a repo rate increase for some time During the past year, Riksbank representatives have frequently said that sooner or later, a continuation of strong economic activity will make a further repo rate increase necessary. This is because an annual GDP growth rate of 3 to 4% is more than the economy can achieve without generating imbalances. Higher economic growth is, however, feasible for a time if there are unutilised resources in the economy. But when tensions arise between total demand and supply, various bottleneck problems are liable to result in price and wage increases that ultimately threaten price stability. 1  BIS Review 109/2000  Perhaps the best illustration of this is to be found in the labour market. The increase in employment in recent years has exceeded what demographic factors are contributing to labour force growth by around 40,000 to 70,000 persons a year. Employment growth is in fact the strongest for several decades. Considering how high unemployment has been, this is welcome. But sooner or later, such a development means that firms will have difficulties in recruiting labour. Then, if not before, wage costs are liable to accelerate and push prices up.

This includes expansion of gig workers, increased remote or flexible working arrangements, and a dynamic workforce with more frequent career switches. We have already witnessed, for example, a rise in digital nomads who travel freely and work remotely. Third, an ageing population and the need for diverse participation. Malaysia is swiftly ageing, requiring changes in the labour market policies to cater to an older working segment as well as encouraging higher workforce participation among women and other minority groups. At the same time, we need to resolve the issue of relatively higher unemployment rates among youths. And fourth, the growing generational gap in the workforce. Up to four different generations now coexist in many workplaces. Each have varying perspectives on leadership, learning and workplace culture. We can thus expect a host of opportunities, but also the need the navigate deep-seated differences. 1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  The digital revolution is expected to increase our labour productivity by 30% and create up to 500,000 jobs by 2025. However, the reconfiguration also poses challenges. The need for specialised skills can lead to a widening talent gap, if left unaddressed. Already, 51% of firms surveyed by BNM faced difficulty in hiring workers, largely due to mismatches of skills for the mid and high-skilled segments1. What does this mean for us? Looking ahead, the local and global outlook means organisations need to embrace the 'new normal' by adopting new business models to address overall productivity and challenges at work.