samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In practice it is not always so easy to distinguish between what is important for credibility and various factors can interact in a complicated manner. Two cases can, however, be discerned:  BIS Review 56/1997  -6-  - In the first case, the problem of credibility is primarily based on a lack of confidence in the central bank as such and in monetary policy. In the long-term perspective, the task is then the establishment of a trackrecord. Laws that guarantee independence can be an important support in this process. In the short term, there is probably most often not much that can be done other than to show by action--increases in interest rates--that one is sticking to one’s objectives. - More difficult to assess and manage are situations in which the currency’s depreciation is a consequence of weakening credibility in the general direction of economic policy. Investors in the financial market may, for example, think that the risk has increased for a change of regimes in the future, when the target for price stability may be abandoned at least temporarily as a result, for example, of government financial problems. In Sweden this was probably the most common explanation for the recurrent periods of exchange rate turbulence during the 1990s. In situations of this type, monetary policy itself cannot do the job, and what is worse, in the short term the costs of monetary policy measures may be considerable.

It has been agreed that all EU Member States may connect their national RTGS systems to TARGET, whether or not they join EMU. The main policy issue outstanding concerns the terms on which the European Central Bank will grant intraday credit to the “outs”. We see no monetary -- or other -- grounds for any discrimination against the “outs”. If intraday liquidity to the “outs” were to be restricted the effect would be to increase the cost of using TARGET, and to damage the efficiency of the system for both “ins” and “outs”. That would simply divert euro payments to alternative mechanisms, including correspondent banking and the EBA’s net end-of-day settlement system. It would be unlikely significantly to deter the international use of the euro -- if that were the objective -- any more than lack of direct access to national RTGS systems deters the international use of the dollar or yen or Deutsche Mark now. Its main impact would be to make intra-European payments less secure. We would regret that. Besides payments systems, the preparation of securities settlement systems for the introduction of the euro is a complex task in its own right. One of the reasons for this is that there are different approaches to securities settlement between different Member States and financial institutions. Another is that different approaches may be required to meet issuers’ requirements for re-denomination.
Once the system is up and running, supervisory coordination in terms of exchange of information, say  BIS Review 102/2001  1  on risk model validation, will also be crucial. For this reason, seminars such as this also serve to build useful networks. Ladies and Gentlemen, Let me turn now towards the second topic at hand, the issues surrounding new technological development, that is, E-Banking. Indeed the key driver of the financial landscape in the past decade has been technology. Innovations, both in finance and IT, have changed the boundaries of financial institutions' businesses, spurred vertical as well as horizontal integration in financial industry and related industries, increasing the numbers of mergers and acquisitions, and in turn, revolutionized the regulatory boundary conceptually and geographically. In short, the definition of what is a financial institution is being challenged. Advancements in technology have ramifications for real applications in many Thai businesses, and the banking industry is no exception. Changes in consumer lifestyle are amongst major factors pushing financial institutions to implement technology-based services that will deliver traditional transactions in a more timely and convenient manner. Such a trend is evidenced by the fact that many Thai banks have invested a significant amount of resources modifying their technology systems to support new on-line services and to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness of their operations.

Tanya Sirivedhin: The New Capital Accord and E-Banking Opening remarks by Mrs Tanya Sirivedhin, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the FSI Workshop for SEANZA's Forum for Banking Supervisors, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 3-7 December 2001. *  *  *  Distinguished Resource Persons and Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen: I would like to take this opportunity to personally extend a warm welcome to everyone here today, and to express our deepest appreciation to our distinguished speakers and panelists who have kindly agreed to share with us their knowledge and experience concerning the New Capital Accord and EBanking. I would also like to thank the Financial Stability Institute of the Bank for International Settlements, for their efforts in co-hosting this workshop on frontier issues. As is well known, the New Capital Accord is scheduled for implementation in 2005. Reflecting comments on the second consultative package, the draft third consultative package is scheduled for release early next year. Judging from the comments submitted in May, the new draft promises to be interesting and controversial. This is not surprising since it will mark what will be no less than the beginning of a worldwide revolution in the way financial institutions are managed, and especially how risks are supervised. The sophistication that comes with enhanced risk-sensitive capital charge should be an important incentive to drive financial institutions around the world to upgrade their expertise, organizational structure, database, IT system, and most of all their risk management process.
Our arrangement – currently the most generous and costly in Europe – should avoid what has started to happen in the United States: ten million job losses in fifteen days and possibly a lot more tomorrow; it protects employees and their incomes and maintains production capacities for the future recovery. The measures also include state-guaranteed loans, up to a total of  Page 3 of 8 EUR 300 billion, repayable over one to five years and for an amount covering up to 25% of annual revenue. Overall, banks are playing their part, but the Credit Mediation Scheme’s services, under the aegis of the Banque de France, are involved and ready to assist any businesses experiencing difficulties. Already, each week we are receiving over ten times more cases than last year. I will now turn to the monetary measures of this cash shield. All over the world, the major central banks have taken bold measures to guarantee financing for businesses in the short term, through purchases of commercial paper, and in the medium term, through purchases of corporate bonds. In this respect, the ECB was among the first to lead the way. The ECB also stands out in that it has the capacity to provide banks with immediate and almost unlimited liquidity, so that the banks can in turn finance all the economic players: businesses, government and households. To do so, during the course of two successive meetings the ECB took some exceptional decisions.

Global Money Week takes place on the 10–17 March and is a worldwide celebration through events and activities to help empower children and youth to be confident and responsible economic citizens. During this week, children are encouraged to engage in learning on how money works, including saving, creating livelihoods, gaining employment and entrepreneurship as well as living financially smart lives. And so for Samoa’s contribution to the event, the Central Bank decided to conduct a financial literacy poster competition to encourage kids to use their imaginations and knowledge about money choices, and help provide a creative outlet to demonstrate their knowledge. For this year’s poster competition theme “I can grow my money by...” myself and Mrs Vicseta Meredith of Business System Limited had the pleasure AND the hard task of judging the entries. We were very impressed with the quality of entries that were presented to us – so it pains us that there are only a limited number of awards we can give out for the competition. “Financial literacy” or “the set of skills and knowledge that allows an individual to make informed and effective decisions with all of their financial resources” is an important life-skill in our diverse capacities as students, employees, consumers, savers and investors etc. In short, it is important for all responsible economic citizens to have. – So why not start now and start young? Start young on financial fitness...it will be fun and worth it!
They affect people’s lives greatly, supporting jobs and incomes, a stable cost of living, an adequate supply of credit, confidence in money. But the impact of central banks’ tools is often indirect and lagged; it is difficult for people to observe these benefits in their everyday lives. When people get a job or a pay rise or a loan, they tend to attribute this to their own good luck or good management. Rarely do they link it to actions taken by central banks, months or perhaps years earlier. The benefits of central bank actions are, for most people, articles of faith rather than fact. These days, with trust needing to be earned, this puts central banks at a natural disadvantage. We see this pattern in other professions. In surveys, the general public are typically mistrustful of politicians and bankers, who appear close to bottom of their trust league table. Yet their trust scores for local MPs and local bank branch managers have remained high because of their closer connection with people’s lives. Central banks, operating economy-wide, perhaps face some of the same challenges as bankers and politicians. 6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  6  The second reason trust proved fragile is because its foundation is public understanding. Once public trust is lost, public understanding becomes crucial to restore it. The hope was that the revolution in central bank transparency initiatives had provided that improved public understanding of the economy and central banks.

For a review of Norway’s monetary history, see Eitrheim, Ø., J.T. Klovland and L.F. Øksendal (2017). A monetary history of Norway, 1816-2016, Cambridge University Press. 7 Deposit money is also reduced when customers withdraw cash. However, since cash is part of the money  supply, the total money supply in the economy does not change. 8 8/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  8 In isolation, diversification reduces banks’ funding risk. Increased use of wholesale funding may lead to slower  growth in the money supply than in credit. Banks also hold liquidity portfolios containing highly liquid securities that can be sold to compensate for deposit withdrawals. This also reduces banks’ risk. 9 For a more detailed explanation of how money is created by banks, see “Money creation in a modern economy”,  Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin2014/Q1, and Bernhardsen, T., A. Kloster and O. Syrstad (2016) “Alternative virkemidler i pengepolitikken – Den nødvendige monetære økosirk” . Staff Memo12/2016. Norges Bank (Norwegian only). 10 Lehman Brothers was an investment bank and did not accept customer deposits. However, as the bank issued  short-term paper and took part in repurchase agreements, which are included in M3, Lehman Brothers created money. The closure of Lehman Brothers led to investor flight from money market funds, very high money market volatility and higher demand for cash from US bank customers. 9/9  BIS central bankers' speeches
I entirely agree with Howard Davies that it is essential that the Basel framework, if it is to remain a global standard, continues to encompass a menu of options which accommodate different needs. I also do not wish to gloss over the fact that there are some very knotty areas in the proposals that have to be tackled before the Basel Committee can deliver on its objectives of greater risk sensitivity and comprehensiveness. The FSA is today going to tackle four of the most difficult, namely credit risk mitigation, operational risk, internal ratings, and interest rate risk in the banking book. I would like to take this opportunity to make a few observations on those areas that are of particular interest to us. Use of internal credit ratings The Bank has, as some of you may know, been devoting considerable thought to development of the internal ratings based approach to setting capital for credit risk. This is in part because we have been able to utilise the expertise we have built up in the course of our work on credit risk modelling, on which the Bank and the FSA held a joint conference last year. But more importantly, it is also because we consider this part of the Basel proposals to be of the utmost importance to achieving a balanced and stable framework. In particular, the availability of this approach is a very important safety valve for the market pressures and distortions that could otherwise arise from the use of external ratings.

Mr Chairman, I have discussed the current international conjuncture at some length to illustrate that even though we all have broadly common economic objectives, that does not make them easy to achieve. We all face our own domestic uncertainties and are exposed to the international repercussions of developments elsewhere. Financial stability One of the greatest difficulties we face is the problem of how to cope with movements in financial asset prices, including exchange rates. That problem has become an increasing preoccupation with increasing financial wealth in our economies and with global financial integration. In the context of macro-economic stabilisation we can, and of course do, take account of asset prices as best we can in both our projections and our policy decisions. The strength and subsequent weakening of stock markets in all our economies, for example, will have been one of the factors influencing both investment and consumer demand to varying degrees for all of us; and the behaviour of exchange rates is clearly a factor influencing inflationary pressures in our respective economies, both through its direct effect on prices and indirectly through its impact on net external demand. But while we can try to make allowance for these effects we cannot predict future asset price movements and we certainly cannot seek to control them. They remain a major source of uncertainty. They also, of course, represent a major potential threat to financial stability which is a necessary concomitant to monetary stability.
Implementation of the investment policy  Our investment policy has not fundamentally changed with the new Act. The monetary reserves continue to constitute core assets for monetary policy. They allow the National Bank to exert an influence on the Swiss franc exchange rate in exceptional situations and are available as an internationally accepted means of payment in a crisis situation. This presupposes a minimum degree of liquidity of these assets. Moreover, monetary reserves enhance the credibility of monetary policy and foster confidence in the Swiss franc. The security of these investments and growth of the monetary reserves in step with the development of the Swiss economy is an important consideration in this context. This is why monetary reserves ought to provide an adequate return, while taking into account the monetary policy restrictions. It is the aim of our investment policy to strike an optimal balance between the criteria of liquidity, security, and return. We assess and regularly review the National Bank’s liquidity requirements - i.e. its need for easily realisable and hence easily accessible assets - on the basis of our experience and taking due account of the current situation. Given the Bank’s large portfolio holdings in US dollar and euro government bonds, the liquidity requirements are currently more than met. This creates a certain amount of leeway for investing in instruments that are less liquid but generate a higher return. The investment criterion “security” must be seen in the context of the monetary reserves as a whole.

The Investment Policy Guidelines of the Swiss National Bank, which have just been published for the first time, contain additional information on the investment and risk control process and on the investment universe. They define the principles of investment policy and the investment categories underlying the strategy, and describe the areas of responsibility. The quantitative information already published in the Annual Report will also be published on a quarterly basis in the future, thus providing the public with even more comprehensive information on our investment activities. 2  BIS Review 39/2004  5. Conclusion  The management of the monetary reserves has gained in importance. The National Bank Act requires the National Bank to manage its monetary reserves professionally, subject to the primacy of monetary policy. After the new Act entered into force, we began to further optimise the investment structure. The increased leeway for investment is used for greater diversification. The structure of the National Bank’s investments is thus becoming more efficient overall, yet without compromising monetary policy requirements in terms of the liquidity and security of these investments. We will also take advantage of the extended legal scope with regard to the free assets, i.e. the proceeds from the sale of gold reserves no longer required. Investment Policy Guidelines of the Swiss National Bank (235 kb)  BIS Review 39/2004  3
Contacts in the regional network in Central Norway believe that a rise in retail trade and household services is contributing somewhat to growth in the region, as is the case in the rest of the country. Growth now appears to be strong enough to hold up the level of employment. Manufacturing output increased slightly in the previous quarter. There is continued growth in retail trade. 1  Gjelsvik, M and T. Høyvarde Clausen. (2003). Verdiskapingsevnen i norske storbyregioner. Rapport 2003/144. Rogalandsforskning. BIS Review 50/2003  7  The construction industry continues to report some growth in Central Norway. Increased activity in rural districts has reduced the previous differences between urban and rural areas. House sales are on the increase and there has been an appreciable rise in house prices. A rise in the number of new orders in manufacturing and the construction industry is generating expectations that growth will continue. Most markets report intensified competition. This is partly a result of a rise in imports in some industries and increased capacity in retail trade. Margins are being reduced. In Central Norway, as in the rest of the country, lower interest rates have contributed to more positive expectations concerning future developments. There are wide regional variations in unemployment. At the end of October, 3.9 per cent of the labour force in Central Norway was registered as unemployed. This is slightly higher than the national average of 3.8 per cent.

Overall wage growth may then be lower than projected and provide the basis for an easing of monetary policy. The global economy appears to be vulnerable to new disturbances. Since summer 2002, international financial market developments have been marked by increased optimism concerning the growth outlook. Equity prices and long-term interest rates have risen. The increase has been uneven, however, and there have been wide fluctuations between major currencies. This may be a reflection of the uncertainty about the strength of the global economic recovery. Developments in the krone exchange rate represent a source of considerable uncertainty. The relationship between the krone exchange rate and the interest rate differential against other countries  6  BIS Review 50/2003  is not necessarily stable over time. Themes in international financial markets shift. We may not yet have seen the full effects of the interest rate reductions on the krone exchange rate. Even though Norges Bank is forward-looking in its conduct of monetary policy, thorough knowledge of the current economic situation is extremely important. An up-to-date and correct picture of the current situation is necessary to make accurate projections for the period ahead. In autumn 2002, Norges Bank established a regional network as a tool to gauge the level of activity in the Norwegian economy. Official statistics and evaluations of developments in financial markets will continue to be the main basis for our assessments, but due to the time lag and revisions of such statistics, supplementary information is useful.
Therein lie my earlier point that I alluded, that we need to create a culture of greater collaboration and respect between the world of academia, regulators and industry players. My hope is that applied research and the development Islamic finance becomes mutually-reinforcing, a “virtuous circle”, where extensive research translates itself into great solutions which can then be used to propel Islamic Finance to a new level of excellence. But it will require us to strengthen the linkages in transforming research insights into practice. You can do your part in promoting this close association through active engagements with the industry or by being a member of working groups to look into specific areas with the regulatory authorities. Conclusion I certainly hope you would find time to reflect on your past, and to think about what you could contribute for Islamic finance and the ummah in the future. You were once ISRA scholarshipholders, but even as you enter a different phase of your career, you continue to remain life-long scholars. Continue to pursue the love of knowledge, and use it to make the world a better place. Let me conclude this remarks by quoting a hadith; “He who introduced some good practice in Islam which was followed after him (by people), he would be assured of reward like one who followed it”. (Narrated by Sahih Muslim). 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches

This strongly implies it is not the greater incidence of ideas-fuelled booms after 1750 that accounts for the growth inflexion. The explanation lies instead in the dramatic fall in both the probability and cost of GDP contractions. Recessions have occurred only 30% of the time since 1700 and only 17% of the time since 1900. During these periods, growth has averaged minus 2.2% per year since 1700 and minus 3.4% per year since 1900. Since 1750, recessions have become far less frequent and less painful. It is the avoidance of deep recessions that differentiates the Golden Era from its Malthusian predecessor. Where does this leave our story of growth? Well, the story that better fits the facts appears to be one in which the conveyor belt of ideas and innovation has been continuous over the centuries, causing lengthy if lumpy ideas-fuelled expansions. But whereas prior to the Industrial Revolution this conveyor belt was regularly halted by recessions, more recently these interruptions have been far fewer and less costly. Put differently, the real revolution in living standards after 1750 came about not exclusively, or perhaps even mainly, from the surge in ideas and technologies. Rather, it resulted from societies having found some means of avoiding the subsequent recessionary bullets. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, these killed expansions dead. After it, societies appear to have found some effective means of dodging them. A Second “i” on Growth  To understand growth, then, we need to explain why economies become less recession-prone after 1750.