samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This can create a tension between short-term and long-term perspectives, which is not so easy to manage. As monetary policy-maker, one must weigh the more concrete and immediate disadvantages of a slightly larger deviation from the inflation target and a somewhat weaker economy in the short run against the more abstract and uncertain, but potentially much greater cost of a really poor development further ahead. This is no easy assessment, but it is important to realise that it is indeed an assessment, where the answers are not self-evident, either in general or from one time to another. A particularly difficult situation may arise if inflation is low and falling and growth is weak, at the same time as household debt and housing prices are rising. One might think that such a situation is not very common, but this is actually to some extent what is happening in Sweden now. At the same time as inflation was surprisingly low and GDP growth very modest according to the most recent statistics, more people are now expecting housing prices to rise and the housing market is often being described as “red hot”.8 Good to have clarity regarding macroprudential supervision – but no quick fix Given this, it is fairly obvious that it is difficult for monetary policy alone to do battle to reduce the risks linked to household borrowing and developments in the housing market. Support is both desirable and necessary.

The turmoil has also affected all of the Bank’s work; from the setting of interest rates, to the scale and structure of our market operations, and to our joint work with the FSA and Treasury to deal with institutions under stress and to help design an effective international response to the crisis. For example, like other central banks, we have adapted our money market operations to provide the liquidity the banking system as a whole has required. First, we have allowed banks to increase their reserve balances at the Bank, increasing the size of our overall provision of central bank money; second, within that larger total, we have shifted the balance towards longer-term lending as the terms of market finance have shortened; third, we have widened the collateral we accept for longer-term repos. And in April, we introduced a special scheme to provide banks with up to three years’ finance for legacy assets which have become illiquid. Last week we offered extra sterling liquidity through our usual Open Market Operations and provided US dollar liquidity as part of co-ordinated action with the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. We also extended the window in which banks can swap their legacy assets under the Special Liquidity Scheme until January next year. Even once the window closes, the Scheme’s asset swap will provide liquidity for a period of up to three years, something many people have not fully appreciated.
•  The FOMC’s forward guidance on the future stance of policy has changed. In March, the Committee reaffirmed its view that the current zero to ¼ percent target for the federal funds rate remains appropriate to support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability. Noting that economic conditions were unlikely to warrant an increase in the target range at the April meeting, it advised that such an increase could be warranted at any later meeting, depending on how the economy evolves. My comments today will focus on the Federal Reserve’s readiness to implement policy firming when directed to do so by the FOMC. In this context, I will discuss the Federal Reserve’s ongoing refinement of its approach to policy normalization, with a focus on initial steps to leave the zero lower bound and some of the considerations that have directed the Committee away from a fixed-rate, full-allotment ON RRP facility. I will then review results of our testing, which inform our confidence in that approach. I will also discuss the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to adapt its operational and analytical tools to the dynamic nature of the markets in which we operate. As always, these views are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System. Ongoing refinements in the Federal Reserve’s approach to policy normalization With the conclusion of the FOMC’s asset purchase program last October and the ongoing reinvestment of principal repayments, the System Open Market Account’s (SOMA) securities portfolio stands at $ trillion.

First, the target the Bank of England is to pursue -- a low inflation target of 2½% -- is set by the government. In an open market economy, the conduct of an effective monetary policy is helped enormously if the authorities can be clear and open about the price stability objective they are pursuing; and in a democratic system, it is absolutely right that the elected government should set this critical strategic objective for the central bank to pursue. 5. Secondly, it is then the responsibility of the Bank of England to achieve this low inflation target, principally through management of interest rates. But this responsibility is to be conducted within a structured framework. Decisions on interest rates are taken by a Monetary Policy Committee in the Bank, consisting of nine members: five of these come from within the Bank -- the Governor, the two Deputy Governors and the two Executive Directors responsible for monetary policy; the other four are appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer and are recognised experts in their field -- in fact, four economists of outstanding reputation. A representative of the Treasury attends the meetings and can contribute to the discussion, but has no vote. The Monetary Policy Committee meets monthly. It announces its decision each month as soon as its meeting concludes, and the minutes of its meetings are published within six weeks, including details of how each member voted. 6. A third important feature is that monetary policy is conducted with a high degree of transparency.
I believe there is a great likelihood that the low interest rate environment will be part of the monetary policy landscape for the foreseeable future and, given that it took almost 20 years to reach a decision on a new Sveriges Riksbank Act, the new proposal must be robust and able to cope with different conceivable developments going forward. One critical issue concerns the Riksbank's earnings. In this respect, there are two worrying trends. One is that demand for banknotes and coins is falling and the other is that the low level of interest rates is contributing to falling earnings for the Riksbank. If the real interest rate is around zero or even negative (as it has been for most of the last ten years), the proposed funding model will not work at all, as it is based on invested equity generating a positive real return. Consequently, a ‘backstop’ will be needed if this scenario is realised. In our response to the Inquiry, we propose an interest-free reserve requirement as an alternative form of funding for the Riksbank. 22 My assessment is that, in the future, we will presumably have to conduct monetary policy in a way that has great consequences for the balance sheet. The Inquiry's proposals certainly allow purchases of government bonds but, if the Riksbank needs a large balance sheet for monetary policy purposes, we will also have to consider the consequent loss risks and will therefore need a safety margin in our equity to secure satisfactory financial independence.

Urban Bäckström: Sweden’s economy is slowing down Speech by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors and President of the Bank for International Settlements, to the Social Democrats, Härnösand, 20 August 2001. *  *  *  Thank you for the invitation to discuss economic developments in Sweden here in Härnösand. First let me say that conducting monetary policy in the past year has not been exactly easy. The repo rate was raised 0.25 percentage points last December, from 3.75 to 4.0 per cent, and this has been followed by an equally large increase to the present rate of 4.25 per cent. In June, moreover, the Riksbank intervened in the currency market in an endeavour to strengthen the Swedish krona and thereby avert a threat to the 2 per cent inflation target. This evening I shall be attempting to present the Riksbank’s actions as I see them in a wider perspective and convey my view of the challenges we will be facing. Before doing so, however, I want to underscore that a decision by the Riksbank to raise or lower the repo rate does not always appear completely self-evident. In order to avoid an unduly erratic monetary stance, these decisions have to be based on assessments of developments in the period one to two years ahead. The current consensus is that this is approximately the time it takes for an interest rate adjustment to exert its full effect and influence the economy in the desired direction.
The latest ECB staff projections foresee annual real GDP growth at –8.0% in 2020, 5.0% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. Euro area real GDP is only expected to recover to pre-crisis levels in late 2022.2 The strength of the recovery remains, however, highly dependent on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the success of containment policies. The public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity and poses downside risks to the economic outlook. The sharp drop in economic activity earlier this year has weakened price pressures. Annual headline inflation in the euro area stood at –0.2% in August and is expected to remain negative over the coming months, reflecting the effects of earlier declines in energy prices, a stronger euro, and a temporary reduction in the value-added tax rate in Germany. ECB staff project annual inflation to gradually increase, from an average of 0.3% in 2020, to an average of 1.0% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022. The ECB’s monetary policy The monetary policy measures that we have taken since early March are providing crucial support to the economic recovery and are helping to safeguard medium-term price stability. Without our measures, we would be facing a deeper economic contraction and more severe 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  disinflation. Our policy support during the crisis has been structured along two main axes: liquidity operations and asset purchases.

Safe and efficient clearing and settlement have been in demand as banks’ trust in each other has weakened. In Norway, our systems have had to handle major problems in two Icelandic banks operating in our country. These problems have been handled smoothly. Times of crisis can also be a turning point, providing the opportunity for change. During the Norwegian banking crisis in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Norges Bank and other public authorities put pressure on banks to increase their income from bank charges, including payment services. I believe that as banks have to focus even more on running a costefficient business, the incentives for developing the payment system further will be strong in times to come. For this conference we have received a large number of high-quality papers. I know that the selected conference speakers represent some of the best researchers in this field. We are especially pleased to have as keynote speakers two of the leading scholars in the economics of payments systems: David Humphrey from Florida State University and Jean-Charles Rochet from Toulouse School of Economics. Let me also extend my thanks to the three other members of the programme committee: Gabriela Guibourg from Sveriges Riksbank, Eirik Gaard Kristiansen from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, and Bent Vale from Norges Bank. As I mentioned earlier, I visit Nice in the South of France quite often. And from my direct observations, I notice that France has developed very fancy methods of processing cheques.
Henry Ohlsson: Decision today, consequences far into the future Speech by Mr Henry Ohlsson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at a breakfast event, organised by Swedbank, Stockholm, 18 March 2016. *  *  *  I would like to thank Bo Enegren, Hanna Köhler, Gustaf Norrefeldt, Cecilia Roos-Isaksson, Marianne Sterner and Ulf Söderström for their help with this speech. Accompanying figures and the table can be found at the end of the speech. Some of the decisions we make only have significance for the here and now. Others may have consequences for many decades to come, in some cases for the rest of our lives. Our choice of education and purchase of a home are examples of decisions that have considerable significance over a long period of time. For a person who puts themselves in debt through decisions with long-term consequences, it is of course important how high the interest rates on the debt are. And this does not concern the interest rates paid now or in the medium term, but also interest rates several decades ahead. In recent years, interest rates have been at their lowest level in modern times. Several other central banks have done as the Riksbank and cut their policy rates below zero, and government bond yields at longer maturities are now at historically low levels. This is partly due to the prolonged recession following the financial crisis.

•  Several Asian regulators, such as China, India, Philippines and Singapore, have set capital requirements that exceed the Basel III standards. •  And banks in China, India, Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore were already subject to liquidity requirements prior to Basel III. Second, Asia’s financial systems emerged from the last crisis less affected than their global peers, with much of their financial resources and businesses intact. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  •  A focus on traditional banking helped Asian banks avoid the fall-outs from the collapse of complex, structured products and risks from outsized trading desks. •  This, together with their strong deposit funding, means that Asian banks do not need to deleverage or withdraw from markets in order to meet the more stringent capital ratios or new liquidity requirements. Asian banks have been able to fill the financing gaps that opened up as global banks concentrated on repairing their balance sheets back home. •  According to BIS data, between 2008 and 2014, the share of Eurozone banks in international claims on Emerging Asia more than halved to just 15% whereas the share of Asian banks almost doubled to 60%. If Asian banks continue to maintain strong buffers and manage their risks well, they are wellplaced to thrive and grow in the new regulatory environment. Technological innovation A third major force shaping Asia’s banking landscape is technology, specifically digital technology. This could prove both transformative and disruptive in a region where banking penetration remains low.
Strong support and inputs from the banking institutions to systematically analyse skills requirements and training needs of their talents on an on-going basis is much needed and should serve as important feedback mechanism for ABS so that academic curriculum is tuned to the changing needs of the industry. In closing, I would like to congratulate ABS for its launch today which opens an exciting new chapter as it seeks to contribute to the new era of growth for the banking sector. Whilst its raison d’être is to serve the Malaysian banking sector, I have every confidence that Asian Banking School as the name suggests, will in no time start to expand its reach and relevance beyond national boundaries to evolve its role in meeting learning and development needs of the banking workforce in the region. Last but not least, let me also thank everyone involved in the process that has brought us to this momentous occasion today. Without their vision and commitment, today’s occasion would not be possible. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

There are also those who believe that to maintain Hong Kong’s competitive edge, we must be the only conduit for foreign capital going into and out of the Mainland. It means a “single access” model, with Hong Kong as the only link and conduit between the onshore and offshore markets. The rationale for Hong Kong to continue to monopolise the access to the onshore market is understandable. It also serves practical purposes at the initial stage of the renminbi’s internationalisation. But as the renminbi internationalisation progresses, this model is not sustainable in the long run. The aim of opening up the capital account and internationalising the renminbi is to foster general acceptance of renminbi in global trade and investment and as a reserve currency. To promote the extensive use of renminbi by corporations and investors around the world, renminbi business must flourish in different parts of the world. The development of the offshore renminbi market must shift from a “single access” model to a “multiple accesses” model. We pride ourselves as the world’s most important offshore renminbi centre, still far ahead of other centres in terms of the size of the liquidity pool and various financial intermediation activities. But there is no time for complacency. Our task is to consolidate Hong Kong’s unique advantages and leverage our first-mover position by incessantly upgrading our renminbi platform, making it the ideal choice for companies and financial institutions, on the Mainland and around the world alike, to conduct various types of offshore renminbi business.
iZettle, another Swedish company, has a service that converts your smartphone into a card terminal. There are several other innovative payment services on the market and under development. 9 There is a growing interest in this issue in the central bank world. For instance, the Bank of England has begun to study this question, as has the Bank of Canada, see http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2016/886.aspx and http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/06/fintech-financial-ecosystemevolution-revolution/  7 [10]  In the first case, with accounts in the Riksbank, the e-krona would be fairly similar to the central bank money that we currently have in our payment system. These e-krona would not be lost if, for instance, the consumer lost his or her telephone, if that is where they are stored. The amount of central bank money can also change rapidly and at the pace determined by the demand from the general public. It is possible, although it does not need to be the case, that this would make it more difficult for the Riksbank to carry out the fine-tuning operations that we use to steer the short-term rate, that is, the starting point for interest-rate setting in Sweden. If we instead have a digital unit that can be transferred decentralised between two people, other complications will arise. Could such a solution be compatible with the regulations on counteracting money laundering and terrorist financing? How would we prevent digital units of value being copied, that is, counterfeited? Convey e-krona directly to the general public or through the banks?

All these developments reflect Singapore’s ideal position for asset managers to deepen and broaden their activities in the Asian time-zone. Annual accounts 28. On our financial statements, MAS recorded a net profit of $ billion for the financial year. The profits comprised mainly interest income, as changes in the valuation of foreign assets and the foreign exchange effects of a stronger Singapore dollar largely offset each other. Total assets, including the Currency Fund, grew by $ billion during the year to $ billion at end-March 2008. 4  BIS Review 94/2008  Remaining vigilant 29. We need to remain vigilant in the face of a number of risks in the global economic and financial environment. We will continue to work closely with the industry to identify vulnerabilities and threats to financial stability through macro surveillance and stress testing. MAS’ work in the coming year will continue to be driven by our mission of supporting noninflationary economic growth, and fostering a sound and reputable financial centre. 30. Thank you. BIS Review 94/2008  5
Since last winter a “Monetary Policy Update” is published on these occasions, a report which contains a more limited number of forecasts. On the basis of the work described above, the Executive Board establishes its majority view of what is considered a well-balanced monetary policy, giving consideration to inflation and the developments in the real economy during the forecast period. Last Wednesday we published the first Monetary Policy Update of the year. We observed in this report that the financial turmoil has persisted since the monetary policy meeting in February. It has contributed to subduing households’ and companies’ expectations for the future in many countries. At the same time, energy and food prices have risen more than expected. All in all, this means that international economic activity is showing weaker development than the Riksbank had earlier anticipated. Economic activity is still good in Sweden, with high growth in consumption and employment. Exports have also shown good growth. The weaker international economic activity will contribute to a slowdown in the Swedish economy. Rising energy and food prices mean that inflation is high and it is expected to be slightly higher next year than was forecast in February. As before, the Riksbank has to take into account different counteracting factors. On the one hand, inflation is still high, as are inflation expectations. On the other hand, the increasingly weak international economic activity will have an effect on Swedish growth and inflation.

Nor has there been reason to take any measures on the basis of our other task, safeguarding financial stability. Swedish banks are profitable and financially strong, and therefore have good opportunities to manage unexpected negative events. The role of central banks in times of financial turmoil The role of central banks is to safeguard economic stability. We can do this best by focussing on achieving our objectives, that is, price stability and financial stability. However, the recent developments in the financial markets have illustrated the importance of increased cooperation both with other Swedish financial authorities and among countries’ central banks. One important challenge is to manage financial crises which risk spreading across national borders. In December 2007 and March 2008 the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB coordinated measures to meet the banks’ needs of short-term financing. The Riksbank expressed its support for this action, although we did not consider it necessary to take corresponding measures in the Swedish financial system. BIS Review 51/2008  7  It is not self-evident what the role of the central bank should be when uncertainty and financial turmoil create problems in certain parts of the financial markets. The fact that central banks take measures to ensure the targeted interest rate is at the right level may appear reasonable. Similarly, we can observe that several central banks see arguments in favour of also influencing interest rates with a slightly longer duration.