samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
However, in recognition of the effective lower bound on interest rates, the ECB has stated that it will also employ forward guidance, asset purchases and longer-term refinancing operations, or any other instrument, as appropriate. In this respect, let me very briefly mention some relevant elements in relation to these nonconventional monetary policy instruments. 6  Regarding forward guidance on interest rates, at end-July 2021, the ECB revised this monetary policy tool to bring it into line with the new strategy. In particular, the revised forward guidance incorporates the 2% symmetric inflation target and establishes three conditions that need to be fulfilled before the ECB Governing Council raises its interest rates. First, we have to observe “that inflation reaches 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon”. As ECB President Christine Lagarde explained following the announcement of the new forward guidance, “well ahead” basically refers to the mid-point of our projection horizon, which covers two to three years. 5 Second, inflation must be at 2% “[…] durably for the rest of the projection horizon”. And third, the Governing Council must consider "that the progress realised in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term".

Álvarez, Luis J., Hurtado, Samuel, Sánchez, Isabel y Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 422-431, January. Andreeva, D. C., and M. García-Posada (2021), “The impact of the ECB´s targeted longterm refinancing operations on banks´ lending policies: the role of competition”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 122, 105992. Banco de España (2019), “Monetary policy design in the medium and long term”, Chapter 3, Annual Report 2018. Brand, C. and F. Mazelis (2019), “Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest”, Working Paper Series, No 2257, ECB, March. Brand, C., G. Goy, and W. Lemke (2020), “Natural Rate Chimera and Bond Pricing Reality”, Working Paper Series, No 666, De Nederlandsche Bank, January. Brunnermeier, M. K. and Y. Koby (2018), “The Reversal Interest Rate”, NBER Working Paper No 25406. Costain, J., G. Nuño and C. Thomas (2021), “The term structure of interest rates in a heterogeneous monetary union”, Banco de España, mimeo. Enders, Almira, and Zeno Enders. "Second-round effects after oil-price shocks: Evidence for the Euro area and Germany." Economics Letters 159 (2017): 208-213. Fiorentini, G., A. Galesi, G. Pérez-Quirós, and E. Sentana (2018), “The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate”, Discussion Paper Series, No 13042, Centre for Economic Policy Research, July. Geiger, F. and Schupp, F. (2018), “With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound”, Discussion Paper Series, No 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Nor can it mean that we set interest rates simply by reference to those prevailing elsewhere. It is naïve to complain that our interest rates are twice those in Europe without recognising that we are operating closer to capacity than is the case in the Eurozone as a whole – or that unemployment there is running at twice the rate in this country even if – and I agree – much of that difference is to be explained by structural, supply-side, rigidities rather than simply cyclical divergence. No-one, Mr Chairman, is more conscious of the limits to what we can hope to achieve through monetary policy than I am. But operating within those limits, we have been able to achieve greater macro-economic stability, reflected in the rate of inflation, than we have seen for a generation. And that stability, together with the improved supply-side flexibility of the economy, has delivered a rate of unemployment in the economy as a whole that, despite the recent modest upturn, is still close to the lowest rate we have seen in almost 20 years. And what is true for the UK as a whole is true for most of the individual regions of the economy. That includes the West Midlands, where, on a claimant count basis, unemployment at 4.8% is actually only marginally above the national average and still just about the lowest it has been since 1980. Macro-economic stability cannot solve all our problems.

He urged writers to “throw away anything that is false, no matter how much he might love that page or paragraph”. In a similar vein, Malaysia’s microfinance journey has been one of trial and error, as we continuously strived to increase the social and economic impact of microfinance, sometimes working against the tide of popular thinking. This has led to a more nuanced approach to the development of microfinance over time, and an ongoing process of rethinking norms which we may take for granted today. Today, I would like to talk about three perspectives that have shaped the way we approach and implement microfinance in Malaysia. First, technology when used in a clever way, can be of great use. While technological advancements hold great promise for expanding access to financial services for the poor, we need to invest time and resources to understand the factors that affect the poor, and the suitable approach to generate income and create wealth. These insights are what will determine whether technology is central or peripheral to the inclusion agenda. Second, the tradeoffs between financial stability and inclusion requires smart management. A microfinance strategy that focuses largely or wholly on providing credit to the unserved is almost destined to fail, potentially leaving communities worse off from excessive debt burdens. Instead, implementation strategies should ensure that the provision of credit are complemented by the necessary safeguards and financial education.
This is very much work in progress, with the aim of helping the MPC to form judgements both about the most likely outturns and the uncertainty surrounding them. Handling uncertainty and disagreement Even armed with a range of economic models to aid structured discussion and enforce a degree of intellectual discipline, how is it possible for a group of nine individually accountable economists to reach sufficient agreement to publish a forecast which is described as reflecting their best collective judgement? An important part of the answer lies in the use of formal techniques to capture uncertainty and risk. These antedate the MPC. The Bank of England started publishing fan charts for its inflation projections in February 1996, following an early experiment with what might be called ‘trumpet charts’.7 The motivation was purely to illustrate the uncertainty inherent in all economic projections. While trumpets consisted of a single shaded area around a central projection, corresponding to average absolute forecast errors (see Chart 1), fan charts (see Chart 2) were graduated to show the full distribution of possible outcomes.8 Chart 1. November 1995 RPIX inflation projection – symmetric error bands  Chart 2. February 1996 projection – fan chart  RPIX  inflation  6  Ashley, J, Driver, R, Hayes S and Jeffrey, C (2005) ‘Dealing with data uncertainty’ Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Winter 2005, published on 14 March 2005. 7  I am indebted to Mark Allan and James Bell for this nice descriptor.

The same focus is required for our reports, where even footnotes contain important data that 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  ensure analytical and studious rather than only informative reporting. Accurately and precisely communicated or analyzed data is crucial for timely and professional information to the public. Unfortunately, even unintentionally inaccurate or incomplete communication or analysis of central bank data and views, especially in times when the information/news are transmitted at the speed of light, can create undesired environment for the economy, especially if it creates an unreasonable panic among the public. Comprehensive and thorough communication requires understanding of many methodological aspects, information and data that the NBRM uses, and which we feel obliged to supply you with through our communication. Among other things, guided by our firm commitment to social responsibility, for several years now we have hosted this workshop, which becomes a tradition. This year’s workshop has a different format, which is the result of our attempt to follow your interest, as well as your recommendations expressed during the successful cooperation so far. It will be focused on two very important, but so far insufficiently covered topics – the Lending Survey and the profitability of the banking sector.
The establishment of the international standard setting organizations such as the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) and the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), to formulate appropriate prudential and accounting standards that would not only facilitate the process of harmonisation but also contribute to the strengthening of the Islamic financial system. The IFSB has already formulated the prudential treatment for sukuk investment by the Islamic financial institutions as stipulated in the Capital Adequacy Standards. Malaysia's strength in the sukuk market Let me now turn to Malaysia's sukuk market. Significant progress has been achieved in the development of the Malaysian sukuk market. In 2007, Malaysia accounted for about twothirds of the global sukuk outstanding, amounting to about USD47 billion. Malaysia not only represents the largest sukuk market in terms of outstanding size, but also in terms of number of issuance. In developing the sukuk market, Malaysia provides a total solution for sukuk activities by providing a complete sukuk issuance and trading platform, that is supported by four elements: a wide range of Islamic instruments, strong legal and regulatory infrastructure, sound Shariah governance framework and the talent supply. These elements are also further strengthened by Malaysia's comprehensive Islamic financial system with all the key components of the financial system comprising the Islamic banking, takaful, Islamic money and capital markets that are now at an advanced stage of development.

Aldous Huxley who wrote the "Brave New World" in the 1930s believed technology and automation would put workers on the fast track for better pay, better hours, better relationships with bosses, and a better workplace environment. (I will let you be the judge of how far that is true today). Science-fiction writer and futurist, Sir Arthur Clarke, predicted in the 1960s, "a world in which we can be in instant contact with each other, wherever we may be, and that it will be possible for a man to conduct his business from Tahiti or Bali just as well as he could from London." This is certainly true today. In the 1980s, many predicted jobs that would be extinct and replaced by robots, such as cashiers, bank tellers, receptionists, servers, floor workers. Today, automation has changed these roles for sure, but it may interest you to know that only one occupation appears to have been fully eliminated in the last 60 years – and that is the elevator operator! 1/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Roy Amara, American scientist and researcher, in 1982 predicted that the greatest changes to come in the workplace would be cultural. He said, "the workplace would be more cooperative than adversarial, and workers will want intellectual and psychological fulfilment, not just financial reward". Certainly, it could be said of hiring today that being part of a team that creates a positive impact on society and encourages emotional and intellectual growth, has strong appeal for job seekers.
Iceland’s economic imbalances are waning and the inflation rate and current account deficit are coming down, the latter from a record level in 2006. The financial sector is on a firmer footing than a year ago. The headline of the Central Bank’s Financial Stability report for 2007 was The commercial banks are more resilient. However, the battle is not over and risks may still be present. The current account deficit is still large. Tighter conditions for funding it could undermine the exchange rate and rekindle higher inflation and instability. While the banks have strengthened their liquidity and have a larger share of deposits on the liabilities side of their balance sheets and fewer challenges in their refinancing, they still rely on easy access to international credit markets. A shift in investor sentiment about the banks, or in general risk assessment in the markets, could tighten liquidity and lead to less favourable borrowing terms. Thus prudence is called for, along with contingencies for facing tighter conditions and awareness that changes can take place very suddenly. Iceland’s currency is the smallest in the world with an inflation targeting framework and a floating currency. The króna probably tends to be more volatile than currencies of larger countries, which will cause sharper fluctuations in yields on króna-denominated investments. While major currencies are certainly prone to volatility, the crucial consideration is that exchange rate movements have a much greater impact on small, open economies than on larger ones.

As it turned out, the three largest commercial banks reported record profits in 2006 and ended the year with their strongest capital adequacy ratios since the Basel Accord went into effect, as well as building up very strong liquidity. In the autumn the banks announced that they had completed refinancing of all their loans maturing that year and virtually all their 2007 maturities, thereby dispelling doubts about their ability to refinance outstanding debt. The liquidity risk that loomed in the first half of 2006 was a thing of the past. In their refinancing arrangements the banks rested the EMTN market that had been their main source of capital and successfully tapped others, mainly in the US but also in Australia and Japan. Some have now successfully returned to the EMTN market. The first signs of a change in foreign investor sentiment towards the Icelandic banks appeared in higher CDS spreads for their bonds in secondary markets, which had been in the range of 0.1 to 0.15%. They began to inch up late in 2005, rose sharply in the first half of 2006 and peaked around  2  BIS Review 60/2007  mid-year close to 0.8%. At that time, this trend was very much at odds with CDS spreads on issues by comparable banks in other countries. Towards the end of last year spreads began to decrease again and have narrowed steadily to only marginally higher than before the market turned uneasy at the end of 2005, at near 0.2% to 0.25%.
In some countries, such as Italy, productivity per employee has even stagnated in the past two decades. Low inflation is a common trait of other advanced economies and a fundamental challenge for most central banks. It therefore continues at present to be one of the central matters for discussion in the academic arena and on the monetary policy boards of the Eurosystem, the Federal Reserve and other central banks. In its latest Annual Report, the Banco de España dedicated special attention to these matters. The report highlights the considerable uncertainty over the factors that may be checking the rise in inflation at the global level. They include most notably structural phenomena, such as population ageing, globalisation, the expansion of value chains and 6  See Chapter 2, “The determinants of low inflation in the euro area and in Spain”, in the Annual Report 2018, Banco de España. 7/16  the attendant increase in competition, along with swift technological progress and the emergence of new forms of marketing and major sales platforms. Moreover, at certain times more transitory factors may have played a part, such as low oil prices and the considerable slack in some labour markets further to strong job destruction during the crisis. The monetary policy response to an extended scenario of slow growth and moderate inflation The complexity this setting poses for economic policies in Europe is most considerable. I shall refer first to monetary policy.

As regards, banks’ securities portfolios, only 1.6% of their holdings stems from sectors characterized by high CO2 emissions, with 5.2% invested in mid CO2 intensive sectors. Insurance companies and investment funds turn out to be more invested in high and mid CO2 intensive sectors, at about 14% and 10% of their securities portfolio respectively. (FSR Interim 2021) Overall, this paints a fairly favourable picture for the Maltese financial system: the potential impact from climate risks is judged as relatively contained, although data limitations and early-stage nature of such exercise caution against an exceedingly benign interpretation. Addressing climate change will require substantial investment, both in shifting away from dependence on fossil fuels and in adapting to higher temperatures, droughts and more extreme weather events. This investment will need to be financed. A growing segment of financial markets relates to “green” instruments, which allocate resources to finance environmentally-friendly investment. Whichever the starting point, the transition to “green finance” is to be supported. The green bond market, for example, has been growing strongly in recent years, reaching a volume of cumulative issuance of about 1.5 trillion USD in 2021. While it remains a niche relative to the overall bond market, there is evidence of investors’ interest for instruments aimed at financing environmental projects. 6  According to the ECB trading in secondary markets bears evidence of a “greenium”, that is a premium that investors are willing to pay to hold green bonds compared to securities with identical characteristics.
Combined with continuous capacity building initiatives and institutional development, it has resulted in the opportunity to achieve scale and has allowed the Islamic financial services industry to transition into a dynamic, fast growing and competitive form of financial intermediation for the global community. The IFSB today is celebrating its tenth anniversary in a world which is changing profoundly. A new growth and development agenda is unfolding before us. Given the severe damage and devastation caused by the global financial crisis and the ensuing economic downturns, the road to an enduring recovery and lasting prosperity demands a global policy response that brings about a new economic trajectory built on a strong, more inclusive and more sustainable growth path. Common challenges that have also come to the forefront, such as poverty, increasing inequality and the imperative for greater social cohesion, have also called for the construction of policy objectives and strategies that can enhance stability, social well-  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  being and environmental sustainability. In the wake of the global financial crisis, there is consensus on the need for a return to financial systems that serve the real economy, and the demands for more responsible financial practices from the financial sector, that also includes the commitment to achieve socio-economic goals. In response, the international community is prioritizing financial stability by strengthening financial regulation. This includes financial reforms aimed at protecting depositors from excessive risk-taking, over-leveraging and unfettered innovation.

Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Raising the bar for the next phase of growth and development – sustaining transformative momentum Welcoming address by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 10th IFSB (Islamic Financial Services Board) Summit 2013 “The future of the Islamic financial services industry – resilience, stability and inclusive growth”, Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur, 16 May 2013. *  *  *  It is a great pleasure to welcome you to this 10th IFSB Summit, on the “The Future of the Islamic Financial Services Industry: Resilience, Stability and Inclusive Growth”. Bank Negara Malaysia is most honored to host this year’s summit, which is held in conjunction with the 10th anniversary of the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). It was here in Kuala Lumpur 10 years ago that we witnessed the momentous occasion of the IFSB inauguration, that was the culmination of international collaboration among the founding member countries with the support of several key international and multilateral institutions. Its landmark establishment in 2002 as the international prudential standard setting body for the Islamic finance marked a major milestone in the effort to strengthen the international infrastructure for the Islamic financial system, steering the path for its successful integration as a viable component of the global financial system.
Statistical data is used in various negotiations. There are many examples. Wage bargaining is strongly affected by the evolution of prices. So-called “inflation clauses” form part of many agreements, for example rental contracts. Statistical data also serve as a basis for the decisions of various authorities. Central banks are a specific category. They significantly affect the economic environment. To be able to perform their duties properly, central banks need high-quality statistical information. “Nothing is more important for monetary policy than good statistics”. This is how Alexander Lamfalussy, the former President of the European Monetary Institute, the predecessor of the European Central Bank, characterised the importance of statistics for successful monetary policymaking. This year marks the fifteenth anniversary on the path of transformation from a centrally controlled economy to a market economy. All areas of our life underwent dramatic changes, statistics being no exception. In the early 1990s, the Czech National Bank worked in close co-operation with the International Monetary Fund. Individual missions visited us several times a year. Statistics was one of the first areas in which such co-operation was established. This is entirely logical, since without the creation of a basic statistical framework it would not have been possible to communicate on monetary policy matters. Among the most important outcomes was a creation of monetary survey. This survey made it possible to compile monetary and credit aggregates. One of the preconditions for influencing the money supply was to establish what is known as the “monetary base”.

What I believe most people understand by this concept is a return to the standard operating mode of monetary policy, i.e. the withdrawal of the unconventional policy tools deployed during the crisis, which would entail a gradual increase in short-term interest rates and a gradual unwinding of bloated central bank balance sheets. The latter is by far the most challenging process, as the impact on global asset prices is a delicate issue, which not only requires good planning and favorable macroeconomic conditions, but is also bound to be lengthy. As regards the other element of policy normalisation – the increase in short-term interest rates –, while less controversial, it is by no means problem-free, considering its implications for financial stability. To quote the BIS Annual Report 2017, “policy normalisation presents unprecedented challenges, given the current high debt levels and unusual uncertainty”. The increase in short-term interest rates is an element of normalisation that also applies to the central banks that did not step out of the conventional framework – and this is the case in most Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries. Personally, I see normalisation as amounting ultimately to a return to real positive interest rates. I doubt, however, that this will be a swift process. In the case of Romania, the steps taken so far along the road to policy normalisation, were facilitated by two favourable developments in the banking sector.