samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Jacqueline Loh: Re-thinking investment strategies for growth Keynote address by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Asia Investment Management Summit, 25 November 2013. *  *  *  Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, a very good morning to all of you. 1. The global economic recovery remains uneven and fragile, five years after Lehman’s collapse. While there have been some encouraging signs over the past year, with stronger jobs growth and the housing recovery in the US and the Euro area economies stepping out of the recession zone, there continues to be heavy reliance on extraordinarily loose monetary policy and low interest rates for life support. 2. Lean economic growth since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, beset by bouts of heightened volatility, present a challenging environment for investment managers. For the insurance industry, higher payouts following natural disasters pose additional difficulties. Five of the ten costliest natural disasters, in terms of money rather than lives, occured in the past five years.1 3. As a result of economic, financial and environmental systems coming under stress at the same time, insurance companies are now operating in extremely trying conditions. Specifically, insurers’ profitability is under pressure simultaneously from all 3 sources: a.  Firstly premium income, which is correlated to weak economic growth and excess capacity;  b.  Secondly investment income, amidst a low yield environment and higher market volatility; and  c.  And thirdly, claims and expenses, given increasing claims for natural catastrophes. 4.

Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Audit as a partner of change Remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 5th PETRONAS Board Audit Committee (BAC) Forum “Audit as a partner of change”, Kuala Lumpur, 16 August 2016. *  *  *  The theme of today’s forum “Audit as a Partner of Change” is highly relevant and timely, as the events in the global market today, involving failures of large firms, frauds and market manipulation activities, underscores the criticality of the three lines of defenses in organizations. For confidence and trust to be restored in the marketplace, the role of the BAC and internal auditors as the third line of defense will be even more critical than ever. Our role as members of audit committees is much broader than what we may perceive it to be. Organisations such as PETRONAS are widely regarded as amongst the few key flag bearers for the country. Hence, it is incumbent upon the Board and the BAC members to be strong and energetic in upholding the highest standards of professionalism, ethics and integrity in discharging their roles and responsibilities. The people of Malaysia must have confidence and pride that an institution entrusted with much strategic natural resources are run with utmost integrity and professionalism. Before I proceed further on the topic for today, allow me to touch briefly on the current outlook on the global and domestic economy.
'19 MP Report  -2  -2  -4  -4 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  (1) Gray area shows lower and upper bounds of of gap estimation range, using various methods for inferring potential GDP (i.e. trivatiate, FMV-X, HP, SVAR, MEP, SSA and XMAS migration gap). See Aldunate et al. (2019). (2) Dotted lines show forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chie. Figure 7 Estimates for trend neutral real rate (percent)  3.0  3.0 10-yr DN BCP (3)  2.5 2.0  2.5  5-yr DN BCP (3)  2.0  open-economy DN (3)  1.5  1.5  HLW (2)  1.0  1.0 5 in 5 rate (1)  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0 02  04  06  08  10  12  14  16  18  (1) The 5 in 5 rate is derived from financial asset prices adjusted for term premiums. (2) Based on Holston, Laubach and Williams (2017). (3) Based on Del Negro et al. (2017), using 5-yr BCP data and assumptions for an open economy. See box V.2 in June 2019 M P Report. Source: Central Bank of Chile.

Within imports, the downward adjustment of consumer goods stands out, in response to the performance of car sales in the local market, but also to the decrease in the purchase of machinery and equipment (specifically trucks), which is estimated to continue beyond the first quarter. This is reflected in the current account, which will have deficits of somewhat under 3% of GDP in the projection horizon. III.3. Working assumptions The baseline projection scenario is made using a set of information and analysis that determine how inflation will converge to the target. This includes the expected behavior of the activity gap—which factors in potential and actual growth—, the copper price, the oil price, the dollar in the world, etcetera. Page 6 of 18  The baseline scenario also includes working assumptions for variables such as the real exchange rate, the behavior of fiscal policy and the MPR. In particular, with respect to the real exchange rate, we foresee that during the next two years it will fluctuate around its averages of the last 15 and 20 years. In the fiscal area, it is assumed that in 2019 the economy will receive a boost consistent with the approved budget. From then onwards, it is assumed that the structural deficit will follow the path of gradual descent defined by the authority. No modifications are introduced as a result of the recent announcements to streamline public investments given that, according to authorities’ statements, these will be made within the limits imposed by the structural balance target.
The Governing Council also agreed upon a guideline for the management of the foreign exchange assets by the national central banks and for the Member States’ transactions with their foreign exchange working balances. These are now being formalised in official legal documentation. (c) Statistics The Governing Council endorsed the statistical framework on the basis of a number of reports that had been prepared by the EMI - many of which had been published in the past - thereby confirming the ECB’s statistical requirements for Stage Three. I should perhaps point out that the reporting framework for the money and banking statistics of the ECB will appear in the “General Documentation” that will be released next Wednesday. (d) Euro banknotes With regard to the euro banknotes, the Governing Council confirmed (in line with previous recommendations by the EMI) that seven banknote denominations would be issued: 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500. Furthermore, it decided that there would not be any national features on the euro banknotes. As you know, the euro banknotes will be put into circulation on 1 January 2002. Thus there are fewer than 800 working days to go before their launch. The Governing Council took note that the technical preparations for the euro banknotes are proceeding according to schedule. The origination phase (i.e. the process of converting the designs into proof-prints) has now been successfully concluded and a zero-production run will be conducted in the autumn before mass production starts in early 1999.

An important external factor underlying the favourable prospects for inflation is the sharp decline in oil and commodity prices, which is partly associated with developments in Asia. Moreover, domestic sources of inflation, such as those arising from the labour market situation and capacity utilisation, are also relatively moderate at the present juncture. In my opinion, taking a euro area wide perspective, these views are also broadly compatible with current monetary and financial developments. In this connection, please take note that we should soon have new information on monetary developments on the basis of the new statistical reporting framework for money and banking. The environment of significant volatility in international financial markets, particularly stock markets, appears to account for much of the recent decline in long-term interest rates in the euro area to historically low levels, as investors have sought to protect themselves against heightened global risk. Nonetheless, it is notable that the euro area yield curve shifted downwards at all maturities, which to some extent would tend to indicate a further decline in long-term inflation expectations for the euro area as a whole. As we approach the start of Stage Three, we shall need to continue to monitor closely economic, monetary and financial developments within the euro area and in the world economy. This will allow us eventually to set the interest rate for the euro area as a whole.
This will also lead to a change in the real krone exchange rate, so that the expected return on investments in Norway and abroad become about the same. However, over time long-term real interest rates have largely followed international rates, and in line with international developments long-term interest rates in Norway have also fallen markedly. Low risk? Real interest rates abroad are unusually low, and the risk premium is also low. Savers and investors are offered a wide range of investment options. Risk and expected returns are assessed when choosing among the alternatives. The premium that investors require to take risk has fallen considerably in recent months and is now generally low. For example, there is little difference between government bond yields and yields on bonds issued by private enterprises. The extra premium that emerging economies have to pay on loans is also small. Moreover, premiums paid to hedge against future fluctuations in foreign exchange and equity markets are small. The low risk premiums may reflect fairly solid growth in the world economy and a strengthening of corporate profits and financial positions. It seems that credit risks are fairly well diversified in securities markets and international banks appear to be solid. Fewer major negative events have shaken the markets in recent periods. But another explanation may be that low interest rates have prompted investors to take more risk, thereby pushing down risk premiums. In that case, lower premiums reflect an expansionary monetary policy rather than low real risk.

Spending was also increased in response to the economic downturn. We can therefore safely affirm that the fiscal rule has been normative for fiscal policy. In the years following 1997, with strong growth in public expenditure, the fiscal rule pointed to a continued increase in the use of petroleum revenues. We had to expect this growth in spending to lead to deteriorating competitiveness in Norwegian manufacturing, either through higher wages or an appreciation of the krone. With stronger wage growth in Norway than abroad, the competitiveness of Norway’s manufacturing industry has weakened by about 15 per cent since the mid-1990s. Competitiveness is about 5 per cent weaker than the average for the past 30 years. The krone exchange rate has been influenced by high oil and gas prices and prices for other Norwegian export goods. Monetary policy has also influenced the path for Norway’s relative costs, but the nominal value of the krone is about the same as 10 years ago. Strong growth in public expenditure and expectations of moderately higher growth in the use of petroleum revenues now seem to have been factored into the cost level. Over the past 30 years manufacturing has been scaled back in waves. The last wave occurred around the turn of the millennium, but a substantial decline also occurred in the period 1977 to 1984 and from 1987 to 1992. Prior to these periods, the manufacturing sector’s competitiveness deteriorated. The usefulness of a fiscal rule is that it gives weight to long-term considerations when addressing day-to-day economic policy challenges.
Exploiting the new market opportunities takes time because institutional structures and  BIS Review 16/2006  1  operating practices need to be adapted. Some of the funds Malta is getting from the EU are being used precisely to strengthen the economy’s export potential. At the same time, it is also true that the EU economy did not grow as rapidly as anticipated in 2005. It expanded by 1.6 per cent, compared with 2.3 per cent in 2004. A higher proportion than ever of consumer demand, moreover, was satisfied by imports from more competitive producers at the expense of established suppliers. Finally, as I have already observed, the persistence of sluggish growth in the Maltese economy cannot be explained exclusively in terms of a cyclical downturn. Delays in implementing effective competitiveness-enhancing reforms were also a factor. As a result, the economy was not fully prepared to exploit the single market. 3. In these circumstances, isn’t this the worst time to be strait-jacketed by the conditions for euro adoption? Wouldn’t a fiscal boost speed up economic growth, now that your already limited monetary policy tools have been put in the shed? Allow me first to correct two misconceptions implicit in your second question. For a start, our monetary policy tools have not been put away but are available for use if needed, as was the case in April last year when the Bank’s central intervention rate was raised by 25 basis points.

Further decisive steps towards establishing a genuine banking union are needed so as to further reduce financial fragmentation, enhance the resilience of the banking sector and strengthen the institutional framework of the euro area. The ECB welcomes the approval of the legal framework of the single supervisory mechanism (SSM) by the European Parliament on 12 September and we look forward to its urgent adoption by the EU Council in the course of October. The entry into force of the SSM legal framework will allow us to further speed up the preparation process, which is well under way. We are committed to delivering on our new supervisory responsibilities by November 2014. We also strongly support the envisaged timeline for the establishment by the end of 2014 of the single resolution mechanism (SRM), which is a necessary complement to the SSM. The Commission’s proposal for the SRM contains three essential elements for the effective resolution of banks, namely: a single system, a single authority and a single fund. The ECB’s forthcoming comprehensive assessment of banks’ balance sheets, which will take place before the ECB assumes its supervisory responsibilities, will be an important confidence-building tool, and we are committed to ensuring its consistency and transparency. The effectiveness of this exercise will also depend on the availability of necessary arrangements for recapitalising banks, if and when needed, including through the provision of a public backstop, if private funds cannot be acquired.
After many years of exceptional growth, a rapid cooling off is now taking place in the American economy. The indicators that have been received in recent months have mainly led to successively downward adjustments of future GDP growth in the United States by most forecasters. What argues in favour of a brief downturn is the fact that the effects of the IT development in spreading to the rest of the economy can hardly be regarded as exhausted. Investments in the American economy have been of a record size and a lot of these investments have been related in fact to IT investments. Depreciation periods are also short there, which in itself reduces the risk for locking-in effects in large mistaken investments. However, it can also be noted that both households and companies have a high level of debt. They have invested and consumed more than they have produced during the period in question and the current account has therefore been in substantial deficit for a number of years. (See Diagram 1). The savings deficit indicates high indebtedness in both households and businesses. If optimism about the future were to be replaced by considerable uncertainty, the high indebtedness would per se reinforce the cyclical downturn and make it more prolonged. Uncertainty about the future can lead to businesses and households restraining demand in order to consolidate. BIS Review ?

Despite oil prices more than tripling from the beginning of 1999 to the end of last year, inflation expectations stayed at the Riksbank’s target. If expectations also increase, monetary policy must be made considerably more stringent to expel inflationary expectations from the economy. From this point of view, it is important that monetary policy is reviewed and that a discussion takes place on the Riksbank’s actions, although the importance of the bank should not be exaggerated. Having said that to provide a perspective on the tasks we have at the Riksbank, I should like to move on to discuss the economic situation in Sweden. Favourable growth During the past three years, GDP has increased in Sweden by an average a bit more than 3.5 per cent. The rate of growth is increasingly higher than what is possible in the long term. The Swedish economy has expanded approximately a half per cent more quickly per year than the euro area in the past four years, although over one per cent more slowly than in the United States during the same period. BIS Review ? ?/2001  1  Strong foreign trade has made a positive contribution to growth in Sweden for large parts of the 1990s and since 1994, the current account has been in surplus. The weak exchange rate for the krona throughout almost the whole of this period with a floating exchange rate, combined with the vigorous growth in the telecommunications sector have been the driving forces underlying the increase in exports.
However, the appreciation since 2007 is of an entirely different quality and even the appreciation shocks of the 1970s and 1990s pale in comparison. In particular, it must be borne in mind that the speed of appreciation was particularly high this time around. It is much more difficult to digest a rapid appreciation since it leaves companies with less time to initiate the process of adaptation. Even companies that would normally be in a position to absorb an appreciation and maintain their competitiveness are coming under pressure. Second, it must be emphasised that, on average, the export volume of Swiss products has reacted comparatively little to exchange rate movements. The qualification on average is an important one. In fact, the dependence on exchange rate movements of the two largest sectors in terms of export share (chemicals, including pharmaceutical products, and precision instruments and watches) is distinctly below average. Thus, these sectors’ share of total exports has gone up over time. By contrast, the adjustments some companies and industries have made to the strong franc have been – and still are – so far-reaching that they are having to completely rethink their future in Switzerland. Third, I am aware that it is easy for an outside observer to talk about the advantages of a strong currency. At the same time, the SNB’s various direct contacts with companies allow us to gain concrete insights into current problems.

Let me emphasise that, in Bank of Albania’s vision, the monetary policy oriented toward price stability, and the supervisory and regulatory policy oriented toward financial stability contribute to the sustainable and long-term development, and are complementary to each other. This creed is fully tested by experience, both in the world and in Albania. In the long-term horizon, the Bank of Albania is confident that the investment we have made in promoting financial stability will bear its fruit with regard to sustainable development, and will increase the space for monetary policy manoeuvring. In addition, accomplishing our price stability objective would enhance the confidence in the national currency, reduce volatility and foster transparency in financial markets, thus contributing to the sustainable development of the financial system. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the coordination of monetary policy and financial stability often present challenges and compromises. In this context, setting clear priorities, using the right instruments, and communicating transparently central bank actions and objectives are key elements for the success of our work. Concluding, I would like to reiterate that I am fully confident that in the course of the day, all the issues I posed above will be elaborated in greater detail. I do believe that the contribution of the eminent panellists and active input from all participants will be an added value in this regard. I wish the best of success look forward with the greatest interest to the outcome of your deliberations. ***  Thank you for your attention! 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
To this day, I can probably tell you as much about Benito Juarez, journalist-turned-jurist-turned-president Jose Maria Iglesias and other Reformistas as I can about Houston or Lamar or Washington or Lincoln.1 Alejandro and Rosa Laura, seeing you tonight has revived school-day memories of some 53 years ago! It is a delight and honor to be with you. I will do two things tonight. First, I will give you an update on the performance of the Texas economy and what lies ahead. Second, I will give you my personal view of what the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee – the FOMC – announced after our meeting last week. Then, time permitting, I will be happy to avoid answering any questions you might have. An update on the Texas economy The economic performance of Texas since December 2007 – the beginning of the U.S. recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research – can be summarized with the chart being projected on the screen denoting employment growth in the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and its branches in Houston, San Antonio and El Paso administer the business of the Eleventh District (depicted by the red line), which includes Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico; 96 percent of the economic production of my district comes from the 25.7 million people of Texas. In 2011, Texas created 211,600 jobs. We now have more people at work than we had before we felt the effects of the Great Recession in the United States.

MAS is involved in the discussions on both the capital and liquidity proposals and supports the broad thrust of these initiatives. As MAS’ regulatory framework has generally been regarded as conservative, we are in a good position to comfortably adopt these more stringent standards. However, we are aware that more regulation on its own is not a panacea. It would be undesirable for the regulatory pendulum to swing towards extreme conservatism and for over-prescriptive rules to severely restrict financial innovation. MAS will adopt a balanced approach and will work closely with and consult all stakeholders in implementing the new regulatory standards. Role of industry participants Supervision has to work in concert with effective risk governance in the financial institutions. The Boards and senior management of financial institutions must take ownership and responsibility to manage risks. A report issued by the Senior Supervisors Group 2 in March 2008, on observations on risk management practices highlighted many risk management practices that improved the resilience of financial institutions during a crisis. Let me highlight three areas. First, effective capital planning. Banks need to conduct a thorough and comprehensive assessment of their levels of capital. These have to be “forward-looking”, taking into account the nature and level of the bank’s risk, not only under “normal” business conditions, but also  2  The Senior Supervisors Group comprises senior financial supervisors from seven countries (United States, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, United Kingdom). It is chaired by William L. Rutledge from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.