samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The large majority of citizens, who had nothing to do with the errors leading up to the crisis, were made destitute because their small incomes and savings declined in value. Large parts of the growing middle class in the worst hit countries in South East Asia were wiped out. Conditional support was often provided with tough requirements of economic policy restraint. A tight fiscal policy would create scope for financing restructuring in the banking sector. Stringent monetary policy would counteract an overly severe depreciation of the currency. This can be criticised with hindsight, as in South East Asia the countries often did not have problematic deficits in public finances or high inflation rates. The IMF has admitted since that the restraint was too great, as they did not realise the extent of the financial crisis. The task for the BIS, the IMF, the World Bank and other international organisations should be to continue the work on finding rules and methods, both to protect innocent people from ruination and to put the risk for bad investments on those making the investments. Work on this is underway in the organisations I mentioned earlier. It involves capital adequacy rules for banks, but also reporting,  4  BIS Review 9/2002  auditing, financial supervision, bankruptcy legislation and transparency in conducting monetary and fiscal policy.

Villy Bergström: Does globalisation have anything to do with the closing down of the ATM? Speech by Mr Villy Bergström, Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, held before “pappers avd 111” (a local union of the Swedish Paper Workers Union), Grycksbo, 11 February 2002. *  *  *  Globalisation is an unclear concept and I think that the chairman of Pappers avdelning 111, Lars Göran Johansson, who invited me to this meeting, gave me an interesting task when he formulated the heading for my talk. He phrased it as a question; "Does globalisation have anything to do with the closing down of the ATM?" I shall return to what I believe that people in general mean by globalisation and I shall also return to Lars Göran's question at the end, but allow me to begin by saying that Sweden has undergone a globalisation process for more than 100 years, in the sense that our country has been exposed to competition. A large proportion of our total production has been aimed for a long time towards the export market, while we have imported goods and received foreign investment capital. Foreign trade comprised approximately 20 per cent of the Swedish economy from the 1870s until the end of World War II. That is to say, import and export each comprised 20 per cent of the total production here in Sweden. An increase in foreign trade began during the post-war period, and export and import now comprise approximately 40 per cent each of our total production.
And the single supervisory mechanism – just a few months ago considered as out of reach in the foreseeable future – is now under construction. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Still, it is of the utmost importance that national governments and European policy makers undertake all needed structural measures to address the fundamental sources of the current crisis. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7

Reliable partners – speech by Ben Broadbent Given at Gresham College, London  Published on 30 March 2022  The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was set up 25 years ago to use monetary policy to keep the rate of inflation in the UK low and stable. Ben Broadbent talks about its work. Ben focuses on some of the theory, the practice and the pitfalls of communication about the course of monetary policy over the future (sometimes called “forward guidance”). He stresses the importance of understanding that the path of policy will depend on how the outlook for the economy evolves. Speech Good morning. It’s a pleasure to be here at Gresham College, a place that has held public lectures on important societal questions for over four hundred years. That makes it one of the few City institutions that’s been around longer than the Bank of England. I would also like to thank both NIESR and the Money, Macro and Finance Society (MMF) for organising the event. Over the years the work of both institutions has been invaluable to the UK policy community. We are living through the most extraordinary – and in many ways an extraordinarily unwelcome – time. Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine has brought war to Europe for the first time in decades, with all its terrible humanitarian consequences.
Along the way we have used three different assumptions for the policy rate – that it will remain unchanged, that it will develop according to market expectations, and, accordingly, that it will develop in the way we ourselves find most likely. Reasons why we want to present our own interest rate path Making its own forecast for the policy rate provides the central bank with a better tool for influencing expectations among households, companies and agents in the financial markets. In the cases where our view differs from the market view, we no longer need to take the rather circumstantial route via qualitative assessments of market pricing. Additionally, it becomes easier for us to show not only what we are thinking but also how we are thinking – it will be simpler to communicate how we view the driving forces behind economic developments and what monetary policy can achieve. If we succeed in communicating our view of how we think, then it will be easier for others to make good assessments on a continuous basis of how new information should affect the future development of the interest rate. This should reduce the fluctuations in the interest rate that are due to speculations regarding the Riksbank’s intentions. One aspect that may not have been given so much attention is that it has become simpler for households planning their private economy to form an impression of what the Executive Board considers to be a suitable development for the interest rate in the future.

All societies, whether open or closed, must find ways of ensuring that people are not excluded when technological progress makes old industries unprofitable. All societies also have a responsibility for production and consumption not having too great an impact on the environment since the welfare and health of future generations will otherwise be imperilled. We must be clear that development and collaboration are good. Almost everyone, including many of the poor in the world, has experienced great improvements in the past decades. In many respects, it is exactly the increased contacts and trade between countries that has contributed to it being possible to solve the problems that I have just mentioned. Growth in the industrialised countries has led to us being able to afford to conserve our environment, which most poor countries cannot afford to do. To reverse the trend - to attempt to isolate countries from one another - is not the way forward. Globalisation makes new demands I will now make some remarks on challanges specifically related to globalisation. Like all other development, globalisation is not without problems. These were clearly expressed in the severe economic crises that we have seen in recent years - in Mexico in 1994-95, in South-East Asia in 1997-98, in Russia in 1998 and in Brazil in 1999. These crises illustrate that increased trade and financial flows makes new demands public policy. Firstly, requirements increase on the national institutional settings - on laws, authorities and practices.
As described  10  In addition to improving competition in money markets, by conducting a daily operation with a known, fixed rate, the Fed can reduce uncertainty and absorb day-to-day variations in the supply of and demand for funds and collateral. An eligible lender that cannot earn the IOER rate and that has an unexpectedly large amount of funds to invest would be able to place the funds in the ON RRP facility rather than sell them in the market at an unusually low rate. This should reduce downward pressure on money market rates. 11  See the discussion in the minutes to the June and July FOMC meetings, http://www.federalreserve. gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20140618.htm and http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes 20140730.htm. 12  See the Survey of Primary Dealers and the Survey of Market Participants. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  earlier, if the magnetic pull of IOER alone is insufficient, ON RRPs should help to form a floor on rates by providing a risk-free, overnight asset to a broad range of non-bank investors. As a result of these forces, the effective funds rate should generally print within the target range. That said, as the Chair noted during her September press conference, the Committee expects that the effective fed funds rate may vary within the target range and could even move outside of it on occasion. For example, the effective rate could move outside the target for a day or two around key financial reporting dates, such as quarter-ends, when some banks’ marginal balance sheet costs are particularly high.

Prior to the crisis, many banks typically borrowed fed funds in order to satisfy reserve requirements or obtain short-term  1  2  The effective fed funds rate is a measure of the prevailing rate in the market each day. This is calculated as a volume-weighted average of rates on trades arranged by major brokers, and is published by the New York Fed. See http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm. BIS central bankers’ speeches  financing. In recent years, however, the Fed’s LSAPs have led to very high levels of reserve balances, and thus reduced the need for banks to borrow fed funds to meet reserve requirements and clear payments. 2 As a result, trading activity in the fed funds market today is smaller and the nature of that activity is different than it was prior to the crisis. 3 Nevertheless, a new Federal Reserve data collection that captures both brokered and bilateral transactions shows that trading activity in fed funds remains significant. 4 These data indicate that daily trading volumes are about $ billion and are relatively stable. Moreover, longer-term correlations between the fed funds rate and other money market rates remain robust. As a result, the fed funds rate continues to be a suitable measure of the marginal cost of funding for banks, and remains connected over medium-term horizons to other short-term interest rates that also matter for the transmission of monetary policy.
139 of the 199 authorized institutions in Hong Kong are either branches or subsidiaries of banking groups incorporated outside of the territory. An important function of the new service is to enable financial institutions to make use of securities held in one of the partner systems as collateral to conduct secured borrowing in the Hong Kong dollar or renminbi in Hong Kong. As an example, a bank in Europe can make use of its securities held with Euroclear Bank or J.P. Morgan to borrow Hong Kong dollar to meet the liquidity needs of its Hong Kong subsidiary. The enhanced capability of authorized institutions to manage the liquidity needs in the local currency, no doubt, will help to maintain financial stability in Hong Kong. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The facility will also substantially strengthen Hong Kong’s role as the global hub for offshore renminbi business. Being the first mover in developing offshore renminbi business, Hong Kong has the largest offshore renminbi liquidity pool, amounting to RMB 674 billion at the end of April 2012, and has developed a vibrant CNH market and the largest offshore RMB bond market. More foreign banks are either choosing to have a base in Hong Kong or are using RMB correspondent banking services provided by banks in Hong Kong. As at the end of May 2012, there were 196 banks participating in Hong Kong’s renminbi clearing platform. Of these, 170 are foreign-owned or located overseas.

Arthur Yuen: Transforming risk management and compliance harnessing the power of regtech Speech by Mr Arthur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Hong Kong FinTech Week 2020, Hong Kong, 2 November 2020. * * *  Opening 1. Ladies and Gentlemen, a very good morning or good afternoon to you, wherever you are in the world! Welcome to the Fifth Annual Hong Kong Fintech Week. 2. The focus of this session is how we can harness the power of technology to transform risk management and regulatory compliance. 3. COVID-19 has sparked many changes for all of us. The fact that I am speaking virtually to you today as part of a fully virtual Hong Kong FinTech Week is one of those changes. And those changes once again reminded us of how important it is for government, regulators, banks and other industries to be adaptive. More importantly, these are not changes to be feared or avoided. Rather, we should embrace them in order to move forward. 4. At the HKMA, we have always been passionate about promoting and implementing technology solutions to make our banking system smarter. This, we reckon, is the only way to ensure that our banking sector remains internationally competitive. Along this same line of thinking, we are launching a White Paper today that sets out a glide path for the wider adoption of Regtech in Hong Kong. This White Paper outlines a series of actions that we would take to accelerate Regtech adoption. 5.
This system, called the Malta Real-time Inter-Bank Settlement System (MARIS), provides for the immediate delivery and settlement of wholesale financial payments in line with the principle of finality adopted in the acquis and will eventually be integrated with the EU’s TARGET system. In the meantime, the Central Bank has already set up two committees to identify the changes which need to be made to the instruments, contracts and control procedures which the Bank uses for monetary and foreign exchange operations. In both cases the necessary changes have been identified and are in the course of implementation. With the cooperation of the Malta Police, the Central Bank is also strengthening its capacity to detect cases involving counterfeit notes and to report such cases to the ECB and Europol. Finally, the Bank is analysing ways in which the composition of its official reserves could be revised as Malta progresses towards EMU membership. As noted above, a key aspect of the smooth operation of EMU is fiscal discipline. Earlier on, I made reference to the Stability and Growth Pact. This, however, is but one element in the framework which applies to the co-ordination of economic policy and fiscal surveillance in the euro area. In particular, euro area members are also required to submit reports outlining their policy intentions over the medium-term. As part of the preparations for their eventual participation in EU surveillance efforts in this area, accession countries have already started to submit Pre-Accession Economic Programmes (PEP).

The rationale behind ERM II is that, if a country succeeds in maintaining the value of its currency against the euro within the fluctuation bands for a period of two years, then it would be reasonable to assume that the country would be able to deal with the binding constraints of EMU. During this phase, accession countries will have to prove that they are able to put up with the disciplines inherent in a fixed exchange rate without imbalances arising in other sectors of the economy. That is why accession to EMU is conditional on prior participation in ERM II. Furthermore, it would be unfair on the twelve euro area countries if the EU were to demand less stringent conditions of the present wave of accession countries. Upon EU accession and during the ERM II phase, Malta, like the other accession countries, would have the status of a “country with a derogation”. Since ERM II neither entails the formal transfer of monetary policy responsibilities to the ECB nor the replacement of the domestic currency by the euro, it will not, as I have already indicated, involve any significant departure from current practice, although it offers more flexibility than our current fixed exchange rate regime, which does not involve any fluctuation band. Another difference is that the obligation to defend the central exchange rate under ERM II would be binding on both the ECB and the Central Bank of Malta. Both institutions would be expected to intervene to preserve that value.
In any case, whatever the financial  2  BIS Review 48/2009  outcome, it must be borne in mind that the only motive behind our intervention was to keep the uncertainty with regard to the value of UBS’s illiquid assets from destabilising the bank and thereby our financial system and economy. When public funds are employed to restore financial stability, the rules governing the functioning of markets need to be adapted to ensure that such a situation can never arise again. We therefore strongly supported the SFBC’s stance in favour of a gradual strengthening of the big banks’ capital levels, of capping their leverage ratios and reforming their compensation systems. In addition, the SNB is currently working together with FINMA to impose more stringent liquidity requirements. As I already pointed out last year, a small country like ours is entitled to define specific conditions under which the systemic risks involved with having two large international banks domiciled on its territory must be limited. The Federal Council and the SFBC clearly recognised this situation and took appropriate preventive measures. For the future, it would also be advisable to examine the expediency of putting into place a legal framework and organisational measures that permit an orderly liquidation of systemically important banks. The crisis spreads to the real economy Ultimately, it was inevitable that the financial market crisis would spread to the real economy. And yet the year 2008 began well.

The SNB reacted swiftly to the deteriorating economic situation, and many people hoped that the monetary policy adopted could shield our country from the turmoil experienced elsewhere. However, it was not in our power to meet these expectations. We did all we could within the framework of our legal mandate. 2009 will be a difficult year for our economy, and the signs are that 2010 will be so too because, even if the downward trend is halted, the under-utilisation of our production resources will still be considerable. Dear Shareholders Dear Guests In such a challenging environment, we shall once again need the support of everyone, in particular our shareholders. We thank you for the unfailing trust you placed in us throughout the year and the interest you have shown in the SNB’s activities. BIS Review 48/2009  5
In normal times, central banks cut their key rates, and this passes through to the yield curve. However, in order to deal with the financial crisis, the ECB like other central banks have brought their key interest rates to very low levels, around zero. This means that our traditional monetary policy tools had to be supplemented by other instruments, known as non-standard instruments, in order to reach our prices stability objective. I will return to this point later. b) The second challenge, which stems from the first, is the risk of an unanchoring of expectations, which would make it harder for us to achieve our 2% target again. Indeed, if inflation stayed too low for too long, economic agents may revise downwards their inflation expectations, which would create second round effects. Lower inflation expectations influence economic agents’ price- and wage-setting behaviour, which in turn keeps inflation low. It can even raise the risk of deflation, defined as a cumulative process of falling prices, including those of assets, or even wages and production, as the world economy experienced in the 1930s or Japan partially underwent in the 1990s. Such deflationary dynamics are not at play today; but that is why our inflation target is symmetrical. We consider too low inflation to be just as costly as too high inflation. And, therefore, it is more risky for central banks to act too late than too early. Since the start of the year, we have observed that market-based measures of inflation expectations have fallen.

At European level, we need to move finally towards a true economic union, in addition to the monetary union embodied in the Eurosystem. Only by optimising the governance of the euro area can we optimise growth. The current extremely accommodative monetary policy stance creates the ideal conditions for carrying out much-needed reforms. It should not be used instead as an excuse for putting them off: Europe and France urgently need to make the most of this opportunity, right now. Thank you for your attention. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches
To repeat, inflation has been above the 2% target for most of the past five years. There are good reasons why policy wasn’t tightened in order to bring inflation back to target more quickly. But ultimately, the MPC will be judged by the success of our actions, not the elegance of our arguments. We need to demonstrate our commitment to bring inflation back to target and to keep it there. But we have also needed to trade off the speed with which we bring inflation back to target against the support that monetary policy can provide to the recovery. The MPC’s forward guidance gives greater clarity about our view of the appropriate trade-off. More important for us today, our guidance is rooted in the recognition that it’s a long way back to the economy being fully recovered. The damage and losses associated with the financial crisis and the years of frustration and disappointment that followed won’t be reversed simply by one or two quarters of strong growth. Our guidance makes clear that we intend to maintain the current exceptionally stimulative stance of monetary policy until we’ve  BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  seen a sustained period of strong growth and the margin of slack in the economy has narrowed significantly, as long as this does not pose risks to either price or financial stability. As you may know, our guidance was framed in terms of so-called thresholds and knockouts.

Australia is one example. Fluctuations in commodity prices entail changes in countries’ terms of trade, which measures the ratio of export to import prices. Changes in the terms of trade have an impact on the exchange rate, which in turn dampens the impact on profitability. The exchange rate acts as a buffer. In the 1990s, the  BIS Review 20/2002  1  fluctuations in Norway’s terms of trade were especially wide. Changes in oil prices were an important reason for this. The krone exchange rate has not fluctuated much compared with other countries. The Petroleum Fund acts as a buffer against fluctuations in the oil price, because the Fund’s capital is invested abroad. This contributes to stabilising the krone exchange rate. We must, nevertheless, be prepared for fluctuations in the krone that are more in line with the fluctuations observed in other countries. Changes in the global economy can affect the krone exchange rate. The exchange rate may also react to and contribute to curbing the effects of domestic disturbances. The floating exchange rate is by and large a well-suited instrument for absorbing unforeseen disturbances to the economy. A stronger krone may, for example, prevent demand pressures from translating into higher price inflation. As history and the experience of other countries have taught us, the real economic losses associated with eliminating high inflation and curbing inflation expectations are considerably higher than those associated with a variable nominal exchange rate.