samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In other words, a 25 basis point tightening would still leave the UK monetary policy stance significantly more accommodative than a year ago. Conclusion  So where does this leave the balance of arguments? Having weighed the evidence, I think that the balance of risks associated with tightening “too early”, on the one hand, and “too late”, on the other, has swung materially towards the latter in the past six to nine months. The risks of tightening “too early” have shrunk as growth and, to lesser extent, inflation have shown greater resilience than expected. And if policy tightened “too late”, this could result in a much steeper path of rate rises later on, contrary to the MPC’s collective expectation that Bank Rate would increase ‘at a gradual pace and to a limited extent’. 25  As the balance point between these risks has shifted over the past 9 months, that has left me judging that a partial withdrawal of the additional policy insurance the MPC put in place last year would be prudent relatively soon, provided the data come in broadly as expected in the period ahead. Certainly, I think such a tightening is likely to be needed well ahead of current market expectations. How soon is “relatively soon”? I considered the case for a rate rise at the MPC’s June meeting. I felt then there were strong grounds for holding back until later in the year, for two reasons. First, despite upwards pressure on inflation, there are still few signs of higher wage growth.

Chart 6: UK self-employment Per cent of total employment 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1855  1870  1885  1900  1915  1930  1945  1960  1975  1990  2005  Sources: ONS, Thomas and Dimsdale (2017) and Bank of England calculations. 19  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  19  Chart 7: ‘Zero hours’ contracts  Per cent of employment  3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0  2000 Q4 2002 Q4 2004 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 Q4 2010 Q4 2012 Q4 2014 Q4 2016 Q4 Sources: ONS Labour Force Survey and Bank of England calculations. Chart 8: Frequency of terms in job postings  Sources: Reed and Bank of England calculations. Notes: Chart shows the share of job postings in a data set of job vacancies posted online in the UK which include the terms ‘self-employed’, ‘flexible hours’ and ‘contractor’. 20  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  20  Chart 9: Distribution of offered wage by occupation, with and without the term ‘self-employment’ in the job advert  Sources: Reed and Bank of England calculations. Notes: ‘SOC code’ refers to standard occupational classification code. The area labelled ‘True’ shows the distribution of offered wages for job adverts which include the term ‘self-employment’, and the area labelled ‘False’ shows the distribution for adverts which do not. The data are drawn from a cross-section of online job vacancies. Distributions are constructed using data covering the period 2008-2016.
In the economic area, we must create the human and material conditions to promote appropriate growth, while keeping unemployment and inflation low. With regard to the human factor, the necessary qualification must be coupled with an adequate motivation. This motivation can be enhanced by an appropriate macroeconomic environment. A gradual development of economic and social activities seems appropriate, since this is the only way to ensure the necessary identification of individuals with the community. 1  BIS Review 106/1999  Economic situation In the course of this year, prospects for economic recovery in Switzerland have been improving, bringing to an end an unusually long period of stagnation. The human and material costs of this stagnation are of course regrettable. The causes for this period of stagnation are manifold. First, one has to bear in mind that it followed years of marked expansion. Other, more general reasons are the consequences of our past labour market policy, which helped to maintain existing structures, as well as of insufficient competition in the domestic economy. Last but not least, an already high level of achievement made it increasingly difficult to provide the necessary punch for change. The need for structural changes as well as the necessity to tackle remaining problems from the past – notably in the construction sector, in agriculture and tourism – along with the repercussions of a weak global economy, have led to a temporary decline in growth. A sustained process of adjustment, but also favourable monetary conditions have subsequently contributed to improve prospects.

The further development of our financial centre will depend on whether we succeed in continuing to guarantee the attributes mentioned earlier on: integrity, stability and quality. This requires efforts both on an individual and on an overall economic level. A sustained commitment in both spheres will permit existing opportunities to be used. BIS Review 106/1999  6
Third, successful microfinance programs are fundamentally compatible with sound commercial and management principles and practice, and normally have two things in common; an obsessive focus on operational innovations and the ability to create powerful synergies. We have built on these premises to continuously adapt, amplify and align our approach. This year, we have embarked on an initiative, working with the Credit Guarantee Corporation in Malaysia, to develop behavioral insights that will enable microfinance providers to integrate business and technological strategies that best serve the poor. The initiative will leverage on analytics to identify drivers of borrower behavior, and expand the use of psychometric tools by financial providers to develop financial solutions that are more responsive to the needs and circumstances of micro borrowers. A deeper understanding of borrower behaviors also provides a solid foundation for executing successful operational strategies. In fact, operational innovations – even those that represent small adjustments to existing processes – can have a far more important impact on smart design than a costly, hi-tech re-tooling of financial services. Our experience in Malaysia suggests that simple changes in application procedures and faster processing times have encouraged a higher take-up of microfinance. Flexible repayment schedules have also enabled borrowers to better manage irregular cashflows while continuing to meet their repayment commitments. Repayment reminders, delivered in ways that are relatable 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  to the poor (for example, “your repayment can help your friend in need”), can help keep repayments current.

Malaysia’s journey will not track exactly the same path as others, nor should we expect it to. But we can all learn something from the footsteps left by others as we move forward. I hope that our collective journeys, as shared in this forum and others like it, will help us harness the full potential of microfinance to build stronger, fairer and more resilient communities. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches
It may take time for a weakening to spill over to output and employment, but when the turnaround first occurs it takes place rapidly and on a large scale. Primary industries, in contrast, are scaled back gradually. These developments will take place in addition to the effects associated with the increased spending of petroleum revenues. All in all, employment in manufacturing and agriculture may fall by 2 - 5 per cent of total employment in the period to 2010. Employment in manufacturing may drop towards 10 per cent of the total. Agriculture may employ less than 2 per cent of total employment. BIS Review 20/2002  7  Changes in industry structure, with an increase in the number employed in services and a decrease in manufacturing, will probably reduce the role of pay increases in manufacturing as a benchmark for wage determination. Among many of Norway’s trading partners, similar developments have occurred. However, the share of employment in manufacturing and agriculture in Norway is already relatively low. Pensions While high oil prices have resulted in sizeable revenues and surpluses on the current account and government budgets, growth in mainland output has been low over the last three years, at only 1 ¼ per cent per year. The sluggish growth rate may be attributed to the supply side of the Norwegian economy. Extensive labour reforms have limited the supply of labour. Measured by person-hours, employment has fallen by 0.4 per cent annually in this period.

The current evaluation of our public pension system must focus on the incentives to work and the effects on the average retirement age. A fund-based system may be an appropriate approach and at the same time make pension savings transparent for each individual. This may in itself provide an incentive to increase working hours. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 20/2002  11
But we would, in my view, have had a much better chance of a more orderly, less damaging correction of an overleveraged banking system.” 5 Available here. 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  3  The FSB highlighted that greater transparency would support the credibility of reforms already made, and that it would continue to encourage appropriate levels of disclosures on resolvability from authorities. The Bank led the way on efforts to increase transparency in the publication of its Approach to Resolution in 2014.6 A credible and transparent resolution regime is in firms’ interests, further increasing the resilience of the UK banking system by reducing systemic risk and giving the public and investors confidence that any failure, should it occur, will be orderly. To somewhat quantify this benefit: in December 2019 the Financial Policy Committee (FPC), of which I am a member, reaffirmed its 2015 judgement that effective resolution arrangements reduce the appropriate level of Tier 1 capital requirements by about 5 percentage points for the UK banking system.7  The benefit is quantifiable in market pricing too. The hidden subsidies given to the largest banks have been reduced; estimates of the value of these implicit subsidies to UK bank shareholders fell from c. £ in 2010 to less than c. £ at end-2016. This was also corroborated in the FSB Consultation Report, which noted that the funding cost advantages enjoyed by SIBs are negatively correlated with the degree to which resolution reforms have been implemented.

But as far as other durables are concerned, the pace of new buying has meant that the stock of them, relative to income, has been rising and is now significantly above average. This suggests that the current pace is unlikely to be maintained indefinitely (there are only so many cars and cookers you need). Chart 10. Shipping congestion has intensified in recent months though cost down a bit 80  Dollars (thousands)  Days  75 70  Chart 11. In the UK, recovery of consumer-facing services output suggests demand is rotating back, but some sectors lag behind Per cent change on 2019Q4  20  Average number of days (lhs)  18 Average freight rate (rhs)  16 14  65  12  60  10  55  8 6  50  Retail goods Hotels and restaurants Travel  4 45 40 Nov 18  2 Nov 19  Nov 20  Nov 21  Average number of days: end-to-end (factory to warehouse) shipments between China and the US. Average freight rate: shipments from China/East Asia to North America West Coast. Sources: Freightos.com and Freightos Baltic Index. Jan 20  Jun 20  Nov 20  Apr 21  20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100  Sep 21  ‘Retail goods’ series is retail sales in volumes. The other series are output measures. Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.
Unit labour cost growth declined to an annual average of 0.6% during 2005-2007, compared to 3.9% during 2001-2004. This improvement was driven by a pick-up in productivity and moderate wage awards. Wages and productivity drifted significantly apart in 2008, however, a divergence which will have harmful consequences if allowed to persist. Progress has been registered in other areas too, though at times not to the same extent as in other EU countries. In the labour market, the employment rate increased from 54% in 2004 to 55.2% in 2008, driven by a steady rise in the female employment rate, while the unemployment rate fell to a record low of 5.9% in 2008. In education, early school leavers declined from 42% in 2004 to 37.3% in 2007, although this is still well above the 15% average EU ratio. 4 Education attainment levels increased from 51% to 55% during the same period. 5 Since the start of this decade, the student population pursuing further and higher education has increased by an annual average of over 5%. 6 An improvement in human capital goes hand in hand with greater employability. In 2008, the employment rate of those with a tertiary level of education stood at 86%, compared to 46% for those with only a secondary level of education.

In 2005 the decision was taken to join ERM II with a unilateral commitment to maintain the exchange rate at its central parity. This was supported by a process of fiscal consolidation, driven both by revenue enhancing and expenditure cutting measures; the first stage of pension reform; the liquidation of loss-making State enterprises and the privatization of others; and further liberalization measures, including in telecommunications and the postal and port services. Measures were also taken in pursuit of the Lisbon Agenda objectives, especially to improve labour market participation and to enhance educational attainment levels. Finally, EU accession also saw the adoption of a new framework for product market regulation. The decision to meet the Maastricht criteria at the earliest possible opportunity seemed overly ambitious to some at the time, but a combination of appropriate policies implemented within a clear strategic framework and an improvement in Malta’s external environment led to the desired objective being achieved just three years after EU accession. In July 2007, in fact, the European Commission recommended to the EU Council that Malta be allowed to adopt the euro on the grounds that it had achieved the high degree of sustainable convergence required by the Treaty. Achievements of the past five years The implementation of reforms began to pay dividends after 2004. Also with the help of stronger external demand, growth accelerated to an average annual rate of 3.4% between 2005-2008, compared with 0.5% in the preceding four years.
The risk of fast deterioration in investor sentiment in emerging economies is high, given that the uncertainties about the strengthening of global economic growth and international trade are still significant, amid the risks arising from economic and monetary policies, the build-up of structural imbalances in the emerging economies and heightening geopolitical tensions. An abrupt adjustment of the risk premium attached to emerging economies may trigger sizeable negative consequences on the domestic environment. This is, in fact, the credit risk, or the risk of an increase in interest rate, stemming from the monetary policies of the advanced economies, the external uncertainties and the way the market reacts to these. Against this background, credit risk refers to an increase in the cost of foreign funding for both the Romanian government (Figures 19 and 20) and the banking and corporate sectors. It is noted that, in recent months, this risk has already started materialising. The Federal Reserve initiated the monetary policy tightening cycle. The Bank of England decided to increase the bank rate, which, in spite of keeping the real rate strongly negative, may act as a signal – especially amid growing uncertainties about Brexit. In one of the peer economies in the region, the Czech National Bank raised the policy rate twice – under special circumstances, after exiting from the exchange rate commitment, and in the context of a rising inflation. The European Central Bank decided to taper the asset purchase programme, even though no date has been set as yet for ending this programme.

Within that time, Jim reviewed the claim, cross-referenced it with the policy, ran 18 fraud-detection algorithms, approved it, sent wiring instructions to the bank and notified the policyholder of the claim payment. The average claim payout in the US is about 30–45 days. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
General principles that should inform economic policy in the face of climate change The optimal economic policy strategy to guide the transition to a more sustainable economy requires striking a balance between, on one hand, encouraging decisive action before it is too late and, on the other, mitigating the social costs associated with the transition process. And this requires an appropriate sequence of measures to be adopted. “Early” intervention would mitigate Mark Carney’s “tragedy of the horizon”.1 But, there is no way of hiding that this strategy also comes at a cost, since the economy would have to go through the process of becoming more sustainable with current technology. This would make it impossible to exploit all the potential cost savings and effectiveness improvements of future innovations that are currently not available, but would be if the timing of measures was more orderly and less hasty. With regard to this balance between speed of action and the costs associated with the transition process, the European Union as a whole appears to have decided to take the lead on early action.2 In the case of Spain, some sociological studies3 suggest that most of society is aware of the risks of failing to act and seems to be prepared to accept some of the possible costs that may arise from starting to intervene now. That said, this is a collective decision that can only be legitimately taken by our political representatives.

I am acutely aware of the fact that the HKMA is only one of eleven central banks and monetary authorities in the EMEAP group and that the ABF project is an EMEAP project, and not an HKMA project. As I said earlier, I cannot speak for EMEAP, although ABF1 and ABF2 were developed while the HKMA had the honour of chairing the relevant Working Group. Indeed, we are scheduled to hand over chairmanship in May next year, having exceptionally provided the chair for two consecutive two-year terms. But allow me to tell you, nevertheless, what we in the HKMA think could be possible directions to be explored. 20. There are two such directions, which hopefully could lead to an ABF3. First is to enlarge the scope of credit acceptable to the central banks as investors, but address the problem of inadequate credit quality through credit enhancement or guarantee arrangements. Second is the securitisation of bank assets. Both are familiar concepts to the financial markets, and so there is no need for me to elaborate, other than to say perhaps that we favour simple products that can be readily understood not just by simple-minded central bankers but also by the not-so-sophisticated investors in the region. We  BIS Review 79/2005  3  support the EMEAP and other regional fora to further look into these ideas. And we look to the private sector to participate fully in this continuing effort. 21.
While the export sector has continuously managed to achieve high productivity growth rates, productivity has lagged behind dramatically in the domestic sector of the economy. Since the domestic sector continues to represent the bulk of the Swiss economy (approximately 60% of GDP), the poor performance of the domestically oriented sectors undermines the growth potential of the Swiss economy.9 In light of the rapidly deteriorating  7  There are numerous useful definitions of globalization. Here I make reference to the one used by Ngaire Woods, ed. (2000): “The Political Economy of Globalization”, New York: St. Martin’s Press. 8  As a percentage of GDP, Switzerland’s current account surplus is exceeded only by that of Singapore. Switzerland holds net foreign assets of about 135% of GDP which is unmatched in the world. The biggest part of the Swiss current account surplus is therefore derived from the interest earned on these assets (36 billion CHF vs. a surplus of 25 billion CHF from services and a 4.5 billion surplus from trade in 2002). 9  GDP growth in Switzerland is underestimated by the official statistics because these do not fully take into account the improvement of the terms of trade that are regularly realised by the tradable sector (see Ulrich Kohli (2002): “Veränderungen der Terms of Trade und reales BIP” (Terms-of-Trade Changes and Real GDP: Evidence from Switzerland (with English summary), Schweizerische Nationalbank Quartalsheft, June, pp. 54-63.

Both figures are well below those of our regional peers, suggesting that we are relatively more immune to abrupt capital flights. On the external stability front, Thailand continues to perform well across most indicators. Last year, our current account recorded a large surplus of over 8% of GDP, and it is expected to grow further this year. Moreover, we continue to have more than enough international reserves to cover our foreign debt obligations. Our banking system continues to be strong, with ample capital buffer and cushion against bad loans. Their capital adequacy ratio continues to be well above the required level of 8.5%, and has increased slightly since my last address. Moreover, amid the gradual economic recovery, banks continue to accumulate high level of loan loss provision to cushion for deteriorating loan quality. The aggregate NPL figure remains manageable at around 2.7% and the combined profits of the banking sector remain sizeable despite being slightly trimmed by the additional loan-loss provisioning. Ladies and Gentlemen, Maintaining sufficient buffers have proved essential in coping with the financial turbulence of the past year, as they helped to shield the economy from facing the full impacts of external shocks. Besides the financial system, the real economy has also been a beneficiary of stable financial environment. In the first half of this year, the Thai economy expanded by 3.4%.