samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
8/18  There thus seems to be a need to improve the employability of this more vulnerable group notable for the presence of very young and very old workers, as well as individuals with fewer skills. To do this, it would be desirable to increase the human capital of these workers, a task which, in particular, would need training tailored to employers’ requirements. Furthermore, it should not be overlooked that the higher inequality in household income emerging in the crisis was, above all, a consequence of job destruction, which underscores the need to ensure that these people can get a job as soon as possible. In addition, the incidence of temporary employment remains very high (nearly 27% in the third quarter of 2019), which, among other things, makes for high employment volatility and reduces worker productivity. Main vulnerabilities of the Spanish economy  A second source of vulnerability originating as a legacy of the crisis is the high government debt, which in the second quarter of 2019 stood at around 99% of GDP, more than 60 pp above that in 2007. It is in this terrain where headway has been less satisfactory in the last few years, as evidenced by the fact that the budget deficit continues to have a high structural component, estimated by the European Commission at above 2.5 pp of GDP.

All but few prices are completely liberalized and driven by healthy market conditions. Fourth, in respect to so-called Ballassa Samuelson Effect, I agree with President Duisenberg, that it is mostly an empirical issue. I think the extent of this effect has been overstated and overdone in many theoretical studies. Empirical data in respect to Poland has shown, that in the past the contribution of BS Effect to the overall inflation rate has been in the range from 1% to 1.5%. As a matter of fact, BS Effect is also present in the Eurozone, in countries like Greece and Portugal. This is not the reason for, as some people heralded, a weak euro. Problems of Greece are not responsible for weak euro that is, if one thinks euro is weak. The already mentioned disinflation, limited scope for future corrective inflation, and manageable level of BS Effect make the Maastricht Inflation criteria achievable. Fiscal criteria must be met in the interest of the countries concerned, as it would contribute to their economic growth. Fifth, there is an intermediate period between the date of entry of Poland and other candidate countries into the European Union and membership of the Monetary Union. The question is, what is the optimal length of this period. I would like to point out, that it might be a rather turbulent time. BIS Review 1/2002  1  Economic forces behind convergence and rapid capital flows might create an economic roller caster.
Mean squared gap for inflation and resource utilisation forecasts Average values of squared deviations during the forecast period 10.0 9.0 Higher repo rate  8.0  Resource utilisation  Main scenario  7.0 6.0  Lower repo rate  5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0  0.1  0.2  0.3  0.4  0.5  0.6  0.7  0.8  Inflation  Note. Resource utilisation is measured as the deviation in GDP from the HP trend and the inflation deviation as the CPIF’s deviation from the inflation target. Source: The Riksbank  Figure 14. Yield curves Per cent 4  4 Yield curve for the repo-rate path Yield curve for government bonds  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 11  12  13  14  15  16  Note. The yield curve for the repo-rate path is calculated using the expectations hypothesis and the government bonds curve is a zero coupon curve Sources: Reuters and the Riksbank  BIS central bankers’ speeches  17

Although such a euro area stance is prevailing, the contribution of individual Member States to the aggregate outcome is suboptimal. Some of them need to take additional measures to ensure compliance with the fiscal rules, while others have scope to use available fiscal space. In addition, all euro area countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies by prioritising public investment and reducing the tax burden on labour. The current political and economic momentum in Europe also provides an opportunity to strengthen our Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Further integration needs to be achieved 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  above all by implementing what has been agreed and by completing the common projects we have started. This includes completing the banking union and building a capital markets union. A more complete EMU, with further steps towards a deeper financial, fiscal and economic union, will be the foundation for a stable, flourishing and resilient euro area economy. That is the best contribution which Europe can make to global economic growth and financial stability. By delivering on its mandate, the ECB will continue to play its part in this endeavour. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches
It is, therefore, appropriate on this occasion to acknowledge the valuable work carried out by the National Euro Changeover Committee and its Steering Committee. I would also like to pay tribute to the staff of the Central Bank of Malta for their contribution in preparing the Bank for its role as a member of the Eurosystem and in planning and executing the currency changeover. During more than two millennia the Maltese people have used many different currencies in circumstances often dictated by the changing balance of power in the Mediterranean, and reflective of Malta’s status as a dependency of some larger and more powerful nation. The adoption of the euro, however, is a change of currency with a difference. This time it will occur because Malta, out of its own choice, will join fourteen other sovereign Member States of the EU in an economic and monetary union designed to complement the Single European Market, a venture that could rightly be described as an epoch-making development in the history of our continent. Since Malta joined the EU in 2004, and particularly since the Maltese lira entered ERM II in 2005, the Central Bank of Malta has been making the case for an early adoption of the euro. And for good reason.

Given the information at the Bank’s disposal and the assessments made by the Bank at the time the projections are made, the interest rate forecast in the Inflation Report will reflect a monetary policy that provides a reasonable balance between the objectives of stabilising inflation at target and stabilising output and employment. This forecast might in many cases be close to market expectations, but this will not necessarily be the case. When the interest rate forecast reflects a monetary policy that provides a reasonable balance, it contributes to monetary policy predictability. With a predictable monetary policy, market participants can react to new information in a way that contributes to stabilising developments in output and inflation. This makes monetary policy more effective, especially if market participants share the central bank’s analyses and assessments. To be successful, monetary policy must be capable of influencing expectations. This is essential to effective monetary policy. The essence of this argument is that it is primarily through the expectations channel that the central bank can influence economic developments. The expectations channel is the most important channel for monetary policy transmission. 3 The central bank determines the shortest money market rates via the key rate. The shortest rates, however, are of limited importance to economic agents’ consumption and investment decisions. These decisions depend more on agents’ expectations with regard to future developments in the key rate. The key rate is primarily effective because it influences market expectations concerning future interest rates.
Improved confidence has also benefited from the changes in certain external conditioning factors, such as those linked to the ECB’s monetary policy and to the progress in economic and monetary union, which have prompted an easing in financing conditions. On top of these are other more transitory effects, such as those linked to the low level of oil prices or to the depreciation of the euro. I shall continue with the analysis contained in the Annual Report, briefly reviewing the key factors behind the recovery. Budgetary consolidation Firstly, regarding public finances, the general government deficit met the objective set by the European Council (5.8% of GDP) for the third year running. In 2014, fiscal policy had a less restrictive impact than in the preceding years and was a less prominent conditioning factor of macroeconomic developments. The reduction in the deficit in 2014 came about as a result of the greater adjustment made at the central and local government levels, since most of the regional governments exceeded the targets set. The budgetary improvement was also the consequence of a similar-sized contribution by revenue and public spending (once the impact of the financial assistance to the banking system is stripped out of spending). The tax take progressively picked up during the year, in step with the cyclical improvement and the change in the composition of GDP.

Nonetheless, the correction of the International Investment Position (IIP), a debtor position equivalent to 93.5% of GDP at the close of 2014, is proving very gradual, which denotes the need to maintain the gains in competitiveness achieved, so as to improve the current account balance and reduce our still-high level of external debt. The role of external conditioning factors Let me now refer to the external conditioning factors in the recovery of the Spanish economy. The world economy lost momentum in 2014, particularly so in the euro area. Euro area growth was very weak in the second and third quarters of the year and only thereafter did it begin to show somewhat greater strength. On this occasion, moreover, Germany and France – the area’s two biggest economies and two of our biggest trading partners – were also affected. The latest ECB projections point to a moderate recovery, whereby the area’s GDP is expected to grow 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2016. These are, then, clearly lower rates than those projected for our economy. Other external developments have provided a boost to activity. I have already mentioned the fall in oil prices. Unquestionably, though, the most durable positive external impulses stemmed from the ECB’s monetary policy and the start-up of the Banking Union. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Throughout last year and in 2015 to date, the ECB has continued to deepen its expansionary monetary policy stance.
The targets for the less discretionary items taken as a whole are in line with the estimates of the models used by the Banco de España. This is particularly so for pension expenditure (the behaviour of which is determined by the increases agreed for 2019 and population ageing), unemployment benefits (which depend mainly on the behaviour of unemployment) and interest in National Accounts terms (which reflects the behaviour of government debt and of interest rates). 2.2  Projected revenue in the Draft Budget  On the revenue side, a broad set of legislative changes is proposed, including notably an increase in personal income tax and in wealth tax at higher income levels, the establishment of a minimum rate of 15% of taxable income for large corporations, the limitation of double taxation exemptions, and an increase in hydrocarbons tax, focused on diesel. On official estimates, these changes would raise government revenue by some € billion in 2019. Also, the Draft Budget includes the new taxes on financial transactions and certain digital services, with an officially estimated impact on revenue of some € billion in 2019. The Draft Budget revenue projections are also affected by the introduction in July 2017 of the system known as “immediate supply of VAT information” (SII by its Spanish initials).

First, greater labour market efficiency, through lower temporary employment and improved employability, especially in the case of less skilled workers, could boost economic growth potential. Second, productivity gains thanks to investment in human capital, greater innovation and the elimination of inappropriate barriers to competition would also have beneficial effects on economic progress in the medium term. Before I close I would like to mention, among the structural challenges facing the Spanish economy, those facing the banking sector. Spanish banks do indeed still face challenges, such as reducing their volume of non-productive assets, improving their capital structure and profitability, strengthening their reputation and making optimum use of technological developments.
One day, when he was returning from the river after a fishing expedition, a beggar, sitting by the side of the road, was reported to have asked him for a fish. “I’ll not give you a fish. Instead, I’ll tell you how you could catch a fish” Confucius is reported to have told the beggar. The moral of the story was that if the beggar was given a fish, he would get used to the free fish and beg for it everyday. Then, it would have been a severe burden on Confucius. So, he advised the beggar to depend on himself rather than begging from others. The experience in poverty alleviation throughout the globe has shown that safety nets in the form of outright grants do not work in the long run. Hence, the safety nets that were introduced earlier were converted to “safety ropes”. Those safety ropes were expected to provide a means for the poor to hang onto and then climb upward with the support given to them. Thus came the era of microfinance which indeed was a safety rope through which the poor could cross the poverty line. Such microfinance would help them to attain the goal of getting out of poverty, provided certain conditions are met. The training program conducted by CAB teaches us these conditions which are needed for the sustenance of microfinance schemes. The experience throughout the world tells us that microfinance alone is not sufficient to eliminate poverty. This is because microfinance satisfies only the funding requirements of micro-enterprises.

Bwalya K E Ng’andu: The National Strategy on Financial Education for Zambia Remarks by Dr Bwalya K E Ng’andu, Deputy Governor (Operations) of the Bank of Zambia, at the launch of the National Strategy on Financial Education for Zambia, Lusaka, 12 July 2012. *  *  *  The Deputy Minister of Finance, Honourable Miles Sampa, M.P; The Minister of Education, Honourable Dr. John Phiri, M.P; The Chief Executive Officer of the Securities & Exchange Commission, Dr. Wala Chabala; The Registrar, Pensions and Insurance Authority, Mr. Martin Libinga; Your Excellencies, Heads and Representatives of Diplomatic Missions invited; Senior Government and financial sector industry officials; Distinguished Invited Guests; Members of the Press; Ladies and Gentlemen. Honourable Ministers, I am delighted to welcome you, on behalf of the three financial sector regulators, i.e. the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Pensions and Insurance Authority and the Bank of Zambia, to the launching of the National Strategy on Financial Education for Zambia. The launch is being done under the auspices of the Financial Sector Development Plan and represents a culmination of a wide range of activities which have been carried out within the scope of the Plan since 2002 with the objective of addressing challenges in the financial sector and strengthening and broadening access to financial services in Zambia.
Are we doomed to end up like the ancient civilisation dwelling on Easter island, which prospered for hundreds of years, living off a tree whose reproductive cycle exceeded the life-time of an individual, and for which reason no one had ever bothered to replant as existing trees died off? The second question probably provides a clue towards understanding the issue surrounding the first. If a section of society makes a sacrifice to reform, the benefits derived in the process may accrue to the rest of society in a greater proportion than to the people making the sacrifice. The obvious solution to this dilemma would be for all sectors of society to share in the costs and benefits of reform in an equitable manner. And this is where Government and all the other social partners have a crucial role to play. It is to take the lead in agreeing on a programme of reforms and carrying their respective constituencies with them. The Malta Council for Economic and Social Development could, I believe, provide a congenial forum for this purpose. But try we must because the challenge is a formidable one and we should not labour under any illusion that it can be wished away. This is not a time for carrying on as usual. Nor is it a time for behaving as though the universal laws of economics or current world realities do not apply to us.

Least of all should the impression be given that it is somehow possible to have all the gain without any of the pain. We all know, for instance, that virtually all public sector expenditures are in the nature of fixed charges to revenue in the form of wages, social benefits and other handouts, subsidies and debt-servicing costs, leaving relatively few discretionary items of expenditure. This probably explains why we hear many calls for cuts in Government spending, but no specific proposals on where and how much to cut. Likewise, the rigidities which pervade the labour market and work practices have become so fundamentally ingrained in the behavioural patterns of society that they have assumed the status of acquired rights. A number of institutions remain characterised by outdated cultures and practices, while a sizeable part of the population remains stubbornly dependent on subsidies and artificial protection. Under such circumstances it is clear – and recent electoral experience has underscored the fact – that the quest for competitiveness cannot, and indeed should not, be attempted by the Government alone. The change in culture and behaviour that this requires can only be successfully undertaken through the joint efforts of all the interested parties. Faced with similar circumstances, other countries have successfully injected a new dynamism into their economies on the strength of a broad consensus on reform measures among the political and social forces.
That recovery is assisted by the continued support the MPC is providing through low interest rates and quantitative easing, and in my view it amply justifies our current stance on monetary policy. But let me dwell for a moment on three important elements of the MPC’s decisions. First, we will continue to execute the announced programme of asset purchases, which we expect to be completed by around the end of 2021. Second, we have in place an important piece of forward guidance, which states that: “If the outlook for inflation weakens the Committee stands ready to take whatever additional action is necessary to achieve its remit. The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably”. This guidance is a recognition of the scale of the shock, the high level of uncertainty and the risks around the Covid recovery, which are still on balance distributed on the downside, though less so as time goes by. It is deliberately state contingent, in other words it sets out that there is a burden of proof we will need on the sustainability of the recovery. But it does not deviate from the usual medium-term nominal anchor, the 2% inflation target. And in this context it is encouraging that measures of inflation expectations have remained relatively stable in the UK, despite the seismic shocks and unprecedented policy response we’ve experienced over the past year.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Currently, consumers are not fully aware of the avenues for redress when they have complaints on the financial services being produced. In a survey undertaken by the consumer associations indicate that the level of awareness of the existence of the Banking Mediation Bureau was very low. The consumer education programme seeks to provide consumers with information on the avenues available to them if they have issues relating to the financial services or products they have acquired. Banking institutions are required to have a special unit to deal with complaints. Where this cannot be resolved, it can be referred to the Banking Mediation Bureau. In addition to the Banking Mediation Bureau, there is also the Unit in Bank Negara Malaysia. With the infrastructure in place, banking customers therefore have a number of channels to address grievances in a consultative and constructive manner. Ladies and Gentlemen, The existence of a single point of reference on retail banking products and services is expected to provide consumers with a fast and convenient way of looking for information and accelerate their learning curve. It is hoped that this one stop centre will improve financial literacy amongst the Malaysian banking population and create a more financially savvy population. This has prompted the development of a long term programme to promote consumer education in Malaysia. The primary objective of the programme is to raise the level of financial literacy among the Malaysian public.
And fiscal policy was expansive for too long – we created a dangerous entitlement economy in which the state was the rich uncle who helped with almost everything. When an economy such as this one (especially one with a huge surplus of money and incomplete price convergence) was hit by a strong supplyside shock after the lockdowns, the Czech Republic ended up with the highest core inflation in the EU (from November 2021 to October 2022). We address the causes of inflation in the Czech Republic in our blog article (Adam and Michl, 2022). Bullard (2023) also wrote an article on this topic last week. The central bank's large balance sheet can lead to changes in monetary policy transmission. This is also because when key interest rates are raised, monetary policymaking expenses increase. We pay interest to commercial banks for their excess liquidity deposits. To give you an idea, the CNB paid CZK 14.7 billion to the banks in interest on deposited liquidity in April 2023, which may amount to CZK 180 billion for 2023 as a whole. This can lead to a change in the behaviour of banks, i.e. how and to whom they provide loans, by how much they raise deposit rates. In a system with excess liquidity, banks easily buy government bonds and government debt is monetised. An important lesson for me is that we will try not to repeat 2017 at the CNB and conduct monetary policy in a conventional manner.

The establishment of the credit bureau is likely to increase credit business, lead to more competitive pricing of credit facilities and lower credit loan defaults and delinquency rates. To address the concerns over the treatment of credit data, MAS would follow two broad principles. 1  Refers to the submission of customer’s payment histories on their credit facilities. Positive data refers to timely payment (i.e. a good customer) and negative data refers to overdue payments. 2  BIS Review 7/2002  First, it is important that individuals have access to their own credit files and to have any inaccurate information corrected. Any dispute resolution process should be timely and effective, and should also be covered in the Consumer Banking Code that ABS is currently working on. Second, it is also important that individual privacy is respected and customer data are not misused for purposes other than what they were originally intended for. A good starting point is the principle of reciprocity on data usage, which all participating members to the bureau will need to adhere to. High standards of confidentiality is also expected of both the bureau operators and participating members. The ABS will continue to work with MAS to ensure that these principles are observed. The launch of the consumer credit bureau will mark the beginning of a new risk management process in Singapore. It will further bolster the integrity and transparency of Singapore’s financial sector.