samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
These reforms are crucial, as monetary policy can obviously not be the  only game in town, and less and less so as we progressively close the output gap. Now, the question that comes to mind, especially here in Germany, is: given this progress, should we stop pursuing an accommodative monetary policy? At this stage, the answer is clearly no. Without monetary stimulus, the recovery in inflation would not yet be self-sustained or durable throughout the euro area. That is why we are maintaining an accommodative stance while adapting its intensity. Regarding this intensity, we decided to cut our monthly asset purchases by € – from € to € – starting next month. We did not deem it necessary to launch a new series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) after the last one today. And we – including Mario Draghi and myself – clearly stressed the limits of negative interest rates. Let me add the following: I often read comments describing our debate within the Governing Council as a “predetermined” one, between the hawks on one side and the doves on the other. I don’t think this is accurate: in all our monetary policy decisions, what I believe matters is to take a pragmatic approach, based on a thorough assessment of the present economic environment in the euro area and of the specific structure of its financing channels. This is why our forward guidance now is this one, based on our current information.

On the costs side, the digital transition involves preparing for shifts in jobs and in skills, through enhanced dialogue with social partners. Moreover, it calls for major IT investment aimed at providing services that remain aligned with customer needs, reducing structural costs and improving regulatory compliance. IT systems will need to be – and this is far from simple – more secure so that they provide strong protection against cyber-risks, but at the same time more flexible and open to interconnectivity. Our duty as regulators in this revolution is obviously not to discourage innovation, but to ensure a level playing field with FinTechs – taking into account their lifecycle according to a “proportionality principle” – and still more tomorrow with bigger data platforms, be they GAFAs or their equivalents. This level playing field will have to apply for capital or liquidity requirements, for prudential supervision as well as for data protection: if you play the same game, you have to obey the same rules. 3/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  In addition to adjustments to business models, cross-border bank consolidations in the euro area would also help tackle this efficiency issue. The Banking Union provides both the justification and the framework for such a financial integration – we still lag far behind the American market in this respect. Cross-border consolidations on a sound and safe basis would make banks better able to diversify their risks across the euro area, and channel savings more effectively towards investments across borders.
The ultimate testament to the euro's success, however, was the response of the European citizens, who accepted their new currency rapidly and with enthusiasm, as shown by the swift withdrawal of legacy currencies in the first weeks following the cash changeover. Indeed, the introduction of the euro banknotes and coins proceeded far more smoothly than we had dared to expect, and I should like to take the opportunity today, on behalf of the ECB, to express once again my gratitude to the citizens of Europe and all the other parties involved for their contribution to making the cash changeover a success and for their fruitful collaboration with the Eurosystem over the past years. Review of economic and monetary developments Let me now turn to the review of economic and monetary developments. In the light of the central role of maintaining price stability that the Treaty assigns to monetary policy, I shall start by reporting that annual average HICP inflation in the euro area was 2.5% in 2001. The lagged effects of the increase in import prices in 2000, together with the impact of livestock diseases on unprocessed food prices in 2001, contributed to the increase in annual HICP inflation rates, which peaked at 3.4% in May 2001. Since then, the effects of these factors on the annual inflation rates have gradually disappeared. We are obviously not satisfied with HICP developments in the course of last year.

Both elements will mitigate the risk of financial fragmentation due to non-coordinated measures taken by the different authorities, namely, “ring fencing” initiatives. Spanish G-SIBs fully comply with the pre-conditions to be considered “Multiple Point” groups: they are organised through local retail banking subsidiaries; critical economic functions, e.g. payment systems, are organized at the local level; subsidiaries are selfsufficient in capital and funding; and they rely on separate firms detached from the bank for operational support, for instance, on information systems. So, although there are still many issues to be clarified, we think that the most realistic resolution approach for the Spanish international banking groups is the “Multiple Point” strategy, provided that, in the event of resolution, their organisational and financial structures are suitable for healthy parts to be sold or maintained as a surviving group, split from their distressed sister companies, using other resolution tools such as asset transfers or bridge banks. Now, I will go to the second main element of the new framework, the bail-in instrument. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Next year, most of the FSB work on resolution will focus on preparing proposals on the adequacy of G-SIFI loss absorbing capacity in resolution, namely, what we call “gone concern loss absorbing capacity” or GLAC. This concept is similar to the Minimum Requirement of Eligible Liabilities (MREL) set up in the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive.
A counter-cyclical fiscal policy also helped reinforce the credibility of the choice of monetary policy regime, since unemployment in this period was lower than would otherwise have been the case. 1  BIS Review 67/2000  •  In December 1992, the fixed exchange rate system had to be abandoned following a sustained period of unrest and extensive speculation in European exchange markets. After this the krone remained stable for several years without any significant changes to Norges Bank’s policy response pattern. The stability of the krone during this period was largely due to the Norwegian economy entering a period of balanced growth. Fiscal policy was well suited to economic developments, while wage inflation was moderate and oil prices were relatively stable. The monetary policy instruments merely accompanied these developments. Chart 2 Daily variation in the krone exchange rate  NOK per ECU/EUR  Daily variation in the krone exchange rates against ECU/EUR. Percent  •  From late 1996 the krone became less stable: the value of the krone fluctuated substantially, despite more active use of monetary policy instruments to dampen the fluctuations. This period saw high levels of economic activity in Norway, coupled with marked cost inflation. This coincided with considerable fluctuations in oil revenues and turbulence in international financial markets, which had a contagion effect on the krone. Developments since the end of 1996 indicate that the exchange rate is no longer ideally suited as an operational short-term objective for monetary policy.

Ardian Fullani: Recent economic and financial developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the press conference on monetary policy decision of the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, Tirana, 27 January 2010. *  *  *  The Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania, in its meeting of January 27, 2010, dwelt with the Monetary Policy Statement for the second half of 2009, analysing in detail the performance of monetary and economic indicators for the second half of 2009, as well as the macroeconomic projections and the balance of risks that may associate them in the coming month. At the end of the analysis, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep unchanged the key interest rate of repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements, at 5.25 percent. The Supervisory Council assessed that this interest rate is in line with Bank of Albania’s goal to keep inflation close to the medium-term target. *** The Albanian economy has just left behind a difficult year. The deep global economic crisis was soon felt even in Albania, testing the foundations of the economy: the financial stability and the macroeconomic balances. However, the good initial state of our economy and the proper response of macroeconomic policies helped to successfully cope with this test.
But the social costs, the damage to the public and the confusion it creates, the harm to the integrity of the institutions and their credibility is enormous. Uninformed agent can base their financial decision on unsound grounds, thus incurring personal  2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  economic losses. And we as institutions might suffer erosion of our credibility that could hamper us in delivering on our public goods. What can be done to mitigate the impact of misinformation in the modern world? Let me refer on this note on the Study on "Societal Costs of Fake News in the Digital Single Market"3 and transpose it to economics. First, it is the self-regulation of the industry – raising awareness of misinformation, costs that it can entail for the society and need of fact-checking. Second is the regulation – creating clear and transparent rules of game. Third, education - media and information literacy can lead to increased public awareness and capacity to critically asses the news, including fake news. Against this background, how can we as producers of statistics contribute in this regard? It appears that adequate communication of our data to the public can help crowd out low quality statistics. We need to consider how to bring closer the statistical products of our work to the public. It is true, that we as central banks have provided to the public a vast portfolio of statistical data, with many dimensions, metadata and public explanations.

We as a central bank also vested enormous efforts making many adjustments in data collection, production and communication process that helped us smoothing the pandemics effect on the production and dissemination of statistics. The pandemic in the initial phase tested the resilience of the statistical system, i.e., the ability to continue with timely supply of statistical data. But it also created demand pressures for new data that was not produced by the official statistics. Data on the epidemiological curve became highly needed as they are leading indicator on how the economy will evolve and how economic and social policies should be calibrated. At the same time, there has been growing demand for real-time high-frequency data on the economy, as many of the historical systematic linkages that policy decisions were based on were broken. For instance, we have been intensively using google mobility data during the lockdowns to assess the behaviour of consumers. We have also leveraged on the private sector data for payment card transactions, as an indicator to assess the personal consumption dynamics and its structure. Although highly useful, the abundance of data also poses a challenge for statisticians, as accentuated by the health crisis. As we go further down the road, the need for quick and granular data, for example on the changes of the economic behaviour of the agents, the longer term scarring to the economy, or the impact of the policy actions on economy will be a "must".
It is usually said that when global production increases by 1 unit, international trade increases by two units and capital movements by four. The increased commercial possibilities that arise as countries become more economically integrated are perhaps the greatest driving force. Another force that is driving the internationalisation process is IT. In spite of the IT crash, there is still considerable potential afforded by information technology. While IT companies have suffered badly on the stock market, the use of the technology itself does not represent a "bubble". IT has resulted in better accessibility to both customers and markets as well as to information. For example, it enables mortgage institutions to find buyers of their services in several locations without having a physical presence there. Moreover, it reduces costs for administration, given the initial costs, and this ought to lead to better conditions for consumers. Yet another driving force is the growth of international organisations such as the EU. With 13 accession countries, the EU could soon be enlarged to include 10 new members, and this is leading toward the creation of a very large and important common capital market. Contacts with our neighbours in the Baltic States and Poland will be stimulated even further through co-operation in the EU. The euro area, which is now four years old, is developing and could include a greater number of countries in the future. Another important development that has affected the financial markets is the introduction of minimum standards in a number of different areas, e.g.

The economy is now undergoing a slow recovery, driven by the normal cyclical course of events but subdued by balance sheet adjustments and geopolitical uncertainty. Balance sheet adjustments will continue, however, as there are still substantial savings imbalances between different regions of the world. At the same time, the risk of war has caused flight to safer assets and thereby resulted in low interest rates. Recently, there has been an improvement in earnings and a slight fall in credit spreads. Nevertheless, the effects of asset price adjustments on pension funds, life insurance companies and non-financial enterprises are still been felt through various parts of the economy. Should the economy follow a debt cycle in the future, there is also a risk that the currently low interest rates will lead to the implementation of projects that would be unprofitable at normal rate levels. How has housing finance in Sweden been affected in recent years by internationalisation, regulatory changes and balance sheet adjustments? Developments in the Swedish asset and debt markets have largely been the same as those abroad. Shares and commercial property have declined in value since 2000. Investment in residential property and prices of permanent single-family dwellings have risen by 8 and 15 per cent respectively for the past two years. Prices of tenant-owner apartments have also increased.
This – along with the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market – has helped to relieve pressure on the Swiss franc. The effect of the negative interest rate on the exchange rate is currently playing a decisive role in enabling the SNB to fulfil its monetary policy mandate. It allows the SNB to counter the aforementioned consequences of the Swiss franc appreciation on economic developments and inflation. Without the negative interest rate, inflation and economic growth in Switzerland would be lower. 3  Low interest rates and Swiss banks’ profitability The negative interest rate thus remains indispensable from a monetary policy perspective, and has, as explained, achieved the desired effect. A monetary policy geared to price and economic stability is also a precondition for a profitable, stable financial system. An environment of decreasing prices and low growth would lead to reduced demand for banking business and increased credit defaults, losses and write-downs. At the same time, the exceptionally low interest rates are fraught with significant challenges. Above all, over time they can have economically undesirable consequences for financial stability. We have arrived at the main topic of my remarks today, namely, how does the SNB assess the effects of low interest rates on financial stability? The answer to this question largely depends on the extent to which low interest rates affect banks’ profitability.

Stories of destitution among retirees is one but many of the sad stories, I would like you to avoid. Guard the assets that you have acquired in your working life jealously, because retirement does not give you multiple chances to make amends when you make unsound business decisions. It is for this reason that the Bank, through Human Resources Department, has engaged Future Search a Consultancy firm to give you tips on how to live in retirement, I urge you to attend the upcoming workshop. I therefore wish you God’s blessings as your pursue the challenges of life in retirement. Thank you. BIS Review 1/2007  1
That is to say, if economic activity in Q3 has managed to pick up in keeping with the more benign scenario of the two projected in September, the path of the disease and the necessary containment measures introduced in recent weeks might be running more in step with the assumptions included under scenario 2. Thus, for example, the composite PMI, which habitually acts as a leading indicator of the future performance of the economy, fell in Spain in August and September, interrupting the rising path on which it had held in the previous months. Further, the improvements seen since the latter part of Q2 in Google’s daily mobility indicators, and in those for air and motorway traffic, are estimated to have halted (and even reversed in some cases) since midJuly. 9  This economic recovery path in Q3, and the fact that, in Q4 to date, the epidemiological situation has worsened acutely in Spain and in most of our neighbouring countries, have prompted the relatively widespread application of fresh restrictions on mobility and activity in certain sectors. On the basis of these developments, it seems plausible to anticipate that economic activity in the final stretch of the year and in early 2021 will be less dynamic than was expected under September’s scenario 1 (which envisaged a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9% in 2020 Q4 and of 1% in 2021 Q1). However, it is important to note that the volume of conjunctural information currently available to us to estimate economic developments in Q4 is still very limited.

04.11.2020  Testimony before the Parliamentary Budget Committee in relation to the Draft State Budget for 2021* Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  *Traducción al inglés del discurso original en español  Ladies and gentlemen, I appear before this Committee as part of the process to discuss and approve the State and Social Security Budget for 2021. The main aim of this Budget should, in my view, be to provide for the recovery of the Spanish economy in the coming quarters and to mitigate the considerable adverse impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to our economic growth and welfare. I shall begin by first describing the recent behaviour of the Spanish economy and, against a background marked by exceptional uncertainty, its possible course in the coming quarters, in light of the Banco de España’s projections. This description will allow me to assess the Government’s macroeconomic forecast which, as is habitually the case, frames the Draft Budget. Secondly, I shall offer my view of the main aspects of the Draft Budget for 2021, including the fiscal policy stance, its composition and the risks to the budget deficit target being met. Lastly, I shall set out what I consider to be the most significant challenges for Spanish fiscal policy in the medium term.
I’m a lawyer, and I like to say that legal expertise is what gets you into the room. Knowing the law is necessary for professional legitimacy. But, in my view, it is not sufficient. Lawyers also have to consider the bigger picture—the purpose of relevant laws, the client’s needs, common sense, and fairness. Those same inquiries should be on the minds of other professionals—including risk professionals in the first line of defense. I mentioned earlier the recent “beneficial owner” regulations. Those rules are part of the customer due diligence regime for financial institutions. The rules tell you the information firms are required to gather and retain to help keep financial crime out of the banking and payment systems. They do not, however, directly answer the question, “Is this the type of customer we want to do business with?” That question requires judgment that is not the exclusive domain of lawyers. The answer will depend not on laws and regulations, but on your institution’s purpose and principles. Manage Account Relationships One area where the difference between what’s legal and what’s right is immediately relevant is the management of customer account relationships, including accounts for respondent banks. I know that this can be tricky. Banks do not want to take on unnecessary legal and reputational risk for the weaknesses and failures of account holders. Nor do banks want to needlessly disrupt or impair the efficiency and speed of the payment system. But that system is under attack. Perhaps we need to think differently about risks, benefits, and costs.

Some of those funds have been recovered, but Bangladesh Bank is still working to recover most of its loss. We at the New York Fed are still helping them to do so. Simply put, it was not just Bangladesh Bank that was wronged. The New York Fed—my client and employer of more than 20 years—was wronged as well. So I come to you today not as a dispassionate observer. I come to you today bearing the scrapes and bruises and scars of our own experience at the New York Fed. This morning, I will speak about where we are and where I think we should go from here. My message, in brief, is that we are all in this together. The integrity of the payment system is critical to the U.S. and global economy. Financial institutions and the official sector must do their utmost to protect the system from financial crime. 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  Where Are We Now? The payment system can be used to facilitate many types of crime. Fraud and theft have accompanied money transfers for as long as there has been money. The Romans considered counterfeiting to be a form of falsum, which was a fraud against the public.2 And, of course, Willie Sutton provided the timeless, common-sense explanation for bank robbery. Money laundering is, by contrast, a more recent development in criminal law. In the United States, anti-money laundering law reflects an evolution in focus from banknote tracking to combatting narco-trafficking to counterterrorism.