samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The third segment is better detection of economy sensitivity to shocks, which is achieved by establishing sector accounts, and in their frames financial accounts, which will disclose the links between all sectors in an economy, and therefore, the possibilities for shock spillover from one sector to another. In 2017, for the first time, the National Bank prepared financial accounts for all sectors of the economy, which were submitted to Eurostat in an experimental format. The fourth segment is the improvement of the statistical communication process. In this context, on a regular basis, we are making efforts to improve communication with the public, also by conducting surveys for the satisfaction of the reporters and users, creating the possibility for direct electronic communication on all issues related to statistics and undertaking financial education activities. In 2016, we started with a regular publication of press releases on statistics, as well as a project, which is in the final phase, for establishing a statistical internet portal for external data users. In doing so, in the basis of all these new statistical requirements, lies the need for providing granular, rather than aggregate data. The crisis has not called into question the traditional aggregate economic statistics, but has shown that it is not enough.

Christian Noyer: Monetary and financial research – its impact on policies and society Opening and closing speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Conference for the 20th anniversary of the Bank of France Foundation, Paris, 14 September 2015. *  *  *  Opening speech Ladies and Gentlemen, I will now switch to English, given the international audience and speakers that we are quite lucky to have today. I would first of all like to express the great pleasure I have to open this conference for the twentieth anniversary of the Banque de France Foundation for Monetary, banking and financial economic research. I welcome the prominent speakers who made us the honor of joining us today – Yann Algan from Sciences Po in Paris and Luigi Zingales from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business – and all our chairs and discussants who also are renowned economists in their respective fields. A few words about the topic of this conference now. The idea of this conference is to take a step back and some time to reflect on monetary and financial research in general, and its impact on policies and society. We will thus evoke the role of economics and economists within our society. The two provocative papers discussed today provide a very nice opportunity for such a discussion. They both point out several concerns about economic research and finance.
And the country most severely affected is the United States where the Federal Reserve today cut interest rates by 75 basis points – the largest reduction since August 1982 – to mitigate “increasing downside risks to growth”. The contraction in the US housing market has deepened and unemployment there is rising. I want tonight to explain the nature of the challenges facing us and why many of them originate outside our shores. Exactly five hundred years before the Bank of England was given its independence, an Italian migrant who had made his home in Bristol, Giovanni Caboto, or John Cabot as he was known, set sail from this great city in May 1497 and became the first European to land on the North American mainland since the Vikings. A seafaring voyage like Cabot’s is a good analogy for the challenges facing the British economy, which will have to navigate some distinctly choppy waters in 2008. The challenge to the Monetary Policy Committee’s ability to navigate our way through the next year reflects two strong economic winds; one from the west and one from the east. They correspond to what economists call demand and supply shocks. The former is the credit crunch which has blown across the Atlantic, and threatens a sharp slowing in output growth. The latter is the rise in energy and food prices, reflecting continued strong growth in Asia, that, together with rising import prices, threaten to lift inflation noticeably above target in the coming months.

And although consumer price inflation here is close to target at 2.1%, three developments now threaten to push it significantly above target this year. First, oil prices are around $ a barrel, although they have fallen back in recent days. In August, the price was $ Second, oil price increases have been accompanied by rising gas prices in wholesale markets. And this month we have seen announcements from suppliers of increases in household gas and electricity bills of the order of 15%. Third, world food prices have risen sharply as a result of strong demand growth on the one hand and poor harvests from South Australia to North Carolina on the other. Food prices on world markets are a third higher than they were six months ago, and that has been feeding through to prices in the shops. Food price inflation in our own Consumer Price Index reached almost 6% in December. So 2008 is likely to see higher energy prices, higher food prices and, with a lower exchange rate, higher import prices, pushing inflation above the 2% target. It is possible that inflation could rise to the level at which I would need to write an open letter of explanation, possibly more than one, to the Chancellor. Although there is little we can do now to avoid some rise in inflation this year, the task of the Monetary Policy Committee is to ensure that it is short-lived.
For Asia, the impacts have been uneven across countries, depending on the size of the initial capital inflows and the maturity composition of external debt. Nonetheless, because of the higher levels of reserves, the absence of significant currency mismatches, and greater flexibility in the exchange rate regimes, emerging markets in Asia have been able to adjust better to the shock without undermining economic and financial stability. However, it may be noted that, so far, the impact from the trade channel has been the most severe. This is because of the large share of exports and manufacturing in the region’s GDP. For example, exports from the five ASEAN economies fell by about 12 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and by 28 percent in the first quarter of this year, while GDP growth over the same two quarters fell by 0.6 percent. This decline is large and shows that Asian emerging markets remain closely tied to the global business cycle. Therefore, without improvements in the world economy, a sustained recovery in Asia will be difficult in the nearterm. Reflecting this, the focus of the policy response, at least in Thailand, has been to help the economy adjust to the impact of the crisis through a supportive stance of monetary and fiscal policies while maintaining the overall policy discipline. As for banks, the supervisory approach has been to ensure that the banking system remains healthy, and continues to operate fully to support the economy with good risk management and adequate capital.

Gazi Erçel: Risk management - within reserve management policies  Opening remarks by Mr Gazi Erçel, Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, in the Conference titled “Current issues in reserves management for central banks in Europe, Middle East and North Africa” which has been organized by the World Bank Treasury in Istanbul on 4-5 May 2000. *  *  *  I am delighted to be with you today to offer some general remarks about reserve management, and our approach to risk management, at the Central Bank of Turkey. Before starting my speech, I would like to thank the World Bank for organizing this conference which, I believe, will be most beneficial to all of us. I am sure most of the important subjects related to new developments in reserve management will be covered in detail at this meeting. However, let me briefly comment on recent developments in managing risk within reserve management and share our experience at the Central Bank of Turkey with you. A string of disaster stories dominated the financial news coverage during the last two decades. A variety of factors could be cited as possible causes of these events. They include shortcomings in economic policy, inadequate supervision and, in most cases, poor risk management by the market players themselves. Beyond that, the basic issue is the financial system’s vulnerability to unforeseen events. We all learned much from these bad experiences but we are living in a changing world.
The FCA has a strategic objective to ensure that the relevant markets for financial services function well. Its formal operational objectives are to secure an appropriate degree of protection for consumers; to protect and enhance the integrity of the UK financial system; and to promote effective competition in the interests of consumers in relevant markets. It is obviously important that the FCA and PRA work closely together even though they have separate, differing objectives. Perhaps the most crucial aspects joining us are (i) that all PRA-authorised firms are dual regulated by the FCA as well for conduct purposes (ii) that the FCA has a primary objective to promote effective competition and the PRA has a secondary objective to facilitate it, and (iii) the FCA and PRA depend on shared data to carry out their roles. The close co-operation of the PRA and FCA is built into the system in part through cross membership of boards. The CEO of the FCA sits on the PRA Board (and is an FPC member ex officio). The CEO of the PRA sits on the FCA Board (and is also an FPC member). The PRA has a Board because it is currently constituted as a formal subsidiary of the Bank of England. It has been proposed that this arrangement changes so that the PRA becomes an authority within the Bank, and the PRA Board would become a new Prudential Regulation Committee. These proposals are subject to public consultation and will be debated in Parliament before being finalised.

We probably won’t know for sure just how effective the new regime is until we reach another crisis. Meanwhile we need to guard against the reforms being rolled back as a result of a period without crisis. Let’s complete the programme, give it time to work, be supportive of growth wherever we can, and be open minded about change. But let’s also be cautious about the siren voices of financial self-interest that were partly responsible for luring us on the rocks in the first place. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Annex 1 – Risk based minimum capital requirements and buffers under CRDIV  14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Annex 2 – Key policy initiatives, by intended implementation date  This diagram, which appeared in the PRA Annual Report 2014/15, highlights some of the major policy work streams that will support delivery of the PRA’s strategy. It includes initiatives for which there is a publicly identified implementation date at UK or international level; however these may be subject to future revision. BIS central bankers’ speeches  15
In the event  5  BIS Review 126/1999  that a bank’s internal capital adequacy process is lacking, supervisors must have the knowledge and authority to take corrective action. There can be no doubt that implementing the supervisory review of capital will require considerable insight and flexibility on the part of supervisors because they will have to tailor their efforts to the unique risk profiles of particular institutions. At the same time, this approach should allow supervisors to draw on their cross-institutional knowledge as they assess the strengths and weaknesses of a bank’s risk management and capital allocation processes relative to those of its peers. The G10 supervisors recognize the obvious implications that this approach will have for supervisory resources. In order to keep pace with industry innovation, it is clear that we will have to step up our training and consider effective ways for making the most use of our limited resources. The Basel Committee also recognizes the importance of these issues for the non-G10 countries and is working toward providing the training and other types of support needed to allow these countries and their supervisors to move in this direction. The third element in the proposed new capital adequacy framework has to do with market discipline - another critical component of a safer and more stable financial system. More extensive disclosure and greater dependence on market forces complement improvements in risk management, banking supervision, and minimum capital standards.

François Villeroy de Galhau: Five lessons learned for monetary policy from the latest years Remarks by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Paris School of Economics, in discussion with Olivier Blanchard, Paris, 28 June 2023. *** Looking at the last three years, which were rich in unexpected events, I would risk two general lessons, and three more technical ones: 1. The first is that we must remain modest, humble: monetary policy is not omnipotent; it cannot be the only game in town. And we must be nimble, able to react to surprises with agility. 2. That said, monetary policy was efficient in preventing deflation during Covid-while not creating the present inflation. 3. On a more technical note: we certainly should work with less forward guidance. I wouldn't throw it away completely but if we use it again in the future, forward guidance should be (i) state dependent and not calendar based except in the very short term (ii) indicative and not committing. 4. We should keep our inflation target of 2%. It served us well, explaining in part why inflation expectations remain rather well anchored; we shouldn't change it, while keeping in mind that the target is for the medium term. 5. Transmission lags are a key question, and we should dig more into this issue.
Today, capital flows freely across borders between economies throughout the world and also contributes to growth in prosperity in many countries. In many Norwegian industries, other countries’ markets and foreign capital have been used to create jobs and generate economic growth. For example, the development of the petroleum sector in Norway, which started thirty years ago, was financed by international capital. In addition, we drew on the knowledge and experience of other countries. Foreign companies and labour played an important role during the development of the Norwegian continental shelf. Norway currently invests a large share of its petroleum revenues in foreign equities and bonds in order to be able to convert the substantial petroleum revenues we have today into greater room for manoeuvre for fiscal policy in the future. Without global goods and capital markets, it would not have been possible for the Norwegian state to diversify risk in its wealth management as it does through the Government Petroleum Fund. Globalisation also means a change in trading patterns. The lowering of trade barriers between countries has created new opportunities for many countries and industries. The textile industry is one example. Over the past decade, Norwegian clothing imports have shifted from high-cost countries in the West to low-cost countries in Eastern Europe and Asia. These developments have occurred in parallel with the gradual removal of quotas and a reduction in tariff rates on imports from these countries. Globalisation is to the advantage of Norwegian consumers.

The delegation of monetary policy decisions to a central bank is underpinned by the need to create stable expectations concerning economic developments and by the favourable experiences of countries such as the US and Germany and the less favourable experiences of countries where interest rate changes have been decided on the basis of more short-term considerations. Delegation to a central bank promotes credibility, confidence and consistency because the central bank must adhere to the mandate laid down by the political authorities. Democratic governance is safeguarded by the government authorities, who define the mandate and assess the results. The mandate provides for professional judgment in a defined area. A year and a half ago, the Government and the Storting adopted new guidelines for economic policy, which stipulate annual spending of petroleum revenues over the central government budget equivalent to the expected real return on the Government Petroleum Fund. One of the aims is to answer the question of when petroleum revenues should be used. The uncertainty and the speculation surrounding central government spending of these revenues, which could have adverse effects on the mainland economy, can thereby be reduced. At the same time, the Government issued a new operational mandate for monetary policy. Norges Bank shall set the key rate with a view to maintaining low and stable inflation.
Thus, based on better growth prospects for our trading partners, favorable external financial conditions and increased terms of trade, the baseline scenario included in our Monetary Policy Report published the first days of this month, considered that, for the next two years, the Chilean economy will receive an external impulse higher than considered at the end of 2016, when our previous report was published (figure 1). 1  / Breakfast presentation at The Council of the Americas, April 20th, 2017. Figure 1 Trading partners GDP  Terms of trade (*)  (annual change, percent)  (index; 2013=100)  4.5  4.5  4.0  4.0  105  105  Mar.17  100 Mar.17  3.5  3.5  Dec.16  3.0  100  3.0  Dec.16  95  95  Sep.16  Sep.16 2.5  2.5 Avg. 00-07  Avg. 10-15  16  17  18  90  90 13  14  15  16  17  18  (*) For comparison effects with the new 2013 Benchmark Compilation, the ToT of previous Reports are adjusted to 100 for 2013. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 3. On the domestic front, inflation has been consistent with what was expected in December. The annual variation of the CPI index fell to 2.7% in March, a significant drop compared to the 4.5% figure of a year ago. The behavior of the nominal exchange rate, which has appreciated relative to its level one year ago, has been a fundamental driver of inflationary dynamics.

Table 1 Domestic scenario (annual change, percent)  2015  GDP Domestic demand Domestic demand (w/o inventory change) Gross fixed capital formation Total consumption Goods and services exports Goods and services imports Current account (% of GDP) Gross national saving (% of GDP) GFCF (% of nominal GDP)  2.3 2.0 1.7 -0.8 2.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.0 21.4 23.6  2016 (e)  2017 (f)  2018 (f)  Dec.16 Report  Mar.17 Report  Dec.16 Report  Mar.17 Report  Mar.17 Report  1.5 1.1 2.0 -0.6 2.8 0.1 -1.4 -1.7 19.3 22.2  1.6 1.1 2.0 -0.8 2.8 -0.1 -1.6 -1.4 20.2 23.2  1.5-2.5 2.6 2.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 4.1 -1.9 19.2 21.7  1.0-2.0 2.3 1.9 0.2 2.5 1.6 4.3 -0.9 20.3 22.5  2.25-3.25 4.1 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 7.2 -2.1 20.5 22.6  (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 14. Or growth scenario also assumes that monetary policy will remain expansionary throughout the policy horizon. Following our communication in December, when we signaled that an additional impulse was necessary for inflation to converge to the target, during the first months of the year, we reduced the monetary policy rate (MPR) by 50 basis points (bp), leaving it at 3%. These actions meant anticipating our December announcement. Later, in our March Report, we announced the need of a slightly greater monetary policy impulse.
Our new conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon (cf. chart 1). Stronger second-round effects and the fact that inflationary pressure from abroad has increased again mean that, despite the raising of the SNB policy rate, the new forecast is higher through to mid-2025 than in December. The new forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.6% for 2023, and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025 (cf. table 1). Without today’s policy rate increase, the inflation forecast would be even higher over the medium term. Uncertainty regarding price developments going forward remains high, and there is above all the risk of elevated inflation becoming embedded. Global economic outlook  What is the economic outlook? The global economy hardly grew in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 will likely be slightly less weak overall than expected in December. Inflation is currently clearly above central banks’ targets in many countries. Against this background, numerous central banks have tightened their monetary policy further. The growth outlook for the global economy in the coming quarters remains subdued. At the same time, inflation is likely to remain elevated worldwide for the time being. Over the medium term, however, it should return to more moderate levels, not least thanks to monetary policy and due to the economic slowdown. Our scenario for the global economy is subject to significant risks, in particular due to the recent turmoil in the global financial sector.

Swiss economic outlook  I now turn to the economic outlook for Switzerland. GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter. For 2022 as a whole, GDP grew by 2.1%. The labour market remained robust, and overall production capacity has been well utilised. Page 3/6  Zurich, 23 March 2023 Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  Despite the slight upturn in economic activity in recent months, growth is likely to remain modest for the rest of the year. Subdued demand from abroad and the loss of purchasing power due to inflation are having a dampening effect. Overall, Swiss GDP is likely to increase by around 1% this year. The forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to high uncertainty. In the short term, the main risks are an economic downturn abroad and adverse effects of the turmoil in the global financial sector. Monetary policy outlook  Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy. Inflation is currently higher than we had expected in December, and inflationary pressure has risen again also due to second-round effects. The renewed increase in our policy rate is therefore necessary to ensure that inflation returns to the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. It cannot be ruled out that a further tightening of monetary policy will be necessary to ensure price stability.