samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
House prices (index 1986=100) 600  500  400  300  200  100  National average  Greater Stockholm  Greater Göteborg  Greater Malmö  m ar -0 6  m ar -0 4 m ar -0 5  m ar -0 2 m ar -0 3  m ar -0 0 m ar -0 1  m ar -9 8 m ar -9 9  m ar -9 6 m ar -9 7  m ar -9 4 m ar -9 5  m ar -9 2 m ar -9 3  m ar -9 0 m ar -9 1  m ar -8 8 m ar -8 9  m ar -8 6 m ar -8 7  0  Source: Statistics Sweden  4.

This broad membership makes the TMA the authoritative industry association and focal point for treasury matters in Hong Kong. I am also glad that there are four committees established to focus on the four key areas that I have spoken about. We at the HKMA consider the TMA an important new element of our financial infrastructure. We are confident that the TMA will play a pivotal role in the maintenance of the status of Hong Kong as an international financial centre. May I congratulate you all on today's inauguration a nd wish you all the very best for the future. 2  BIS Review 4/2006
The firming and intensification of these trends will largely depend on developments in the Spanish economy and on recovery taking root. The outlook for the economy remains favourable; so far, it has proven resilient to an external environment in which growth forecasts for the global economy have been revised downwards, and in which the recovery in European countries – those most important for our economy – has lost momentum. Thus, on the domestic front at least, it would be necessary to embed the reforms under way, thereby enhancing our capacity for recovery. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The start-up of the Single Supervisory Mechanism Among the challenges posed by the SSM is that of attaining quality bank supervision, applying strengthened and uniform standards and making the most use possible of the acquired knowledge of the various national authorities, while setting in place a common supervisory culture. In light of the work undertaken to date and the intense collaboration between the ECB and the national authorities, these goals are realistic. The Banco de España is striving to ensure this is a successful process, cooperating with the ECB and the other SSM participants. We have adapted our organisational arrangements and working methods to smooth interaction with the SSM and the ECB. A further key challenge will be to maintain a level playing field in the member countries, applying uniform supervisory principles. That is a major challenge, given that in Europe there is a wide diversity of banking models and legal systems.

The consultative process of the TLAC proposal will be conducted in parallel with an impact study which will include (i) an analysis of the TLAC needs for each institution which may have to be resolved; (ii) a survey to assess the depth of the market in each jurisdiction  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  involved; (iii) an analysis of the historical losses incurred by global systemic banks at the height of the crisis; and (iv) an assessment of the economic impact of the proposal, both at institution level and as to how it will affect the supply of credit. The difference from the Basel requirements lies in the instruments eligible for meeting the new requirement. Thus, in addition to all the equity instruments envisaged under Basel, the proposal permits, and in fact requires, the inclusion of debt instruments, generally subordinated debt instruments. Experience shows that capital may disappear in a crisis, and quickly so. The authorities must, therefore, have debt and equity instruments which (through debt reduction and/or conversion into equity instruments) allow them to resolve and recapitalise institutions from within, without need for bail-out by the public authorities. Will this be the end of the reforms? I think not, at least as far as other financial sectors are concerned. The considerably higher prudential requirements on banks naturally cause some credit intermediation to shift to other financial sectors, in a phenomenon commonly known as “shadow banking”.
5 See, for example, Summers (2018). 3 [24]  from 0.75 to –0.5 per cent, the cut would be 1.25 percentage points, that is much less than the estimated 2.5–3 percentage points. 6  Raising the repo rate to have ammunition ready? Here I should like to briefly touch on a particular question before I go on. If one is concerned that the repo rate will not be sufficiently high when the next economic downturn comes, can one not just raise it to a suitable level now, as a preventive measure – so that there is ammunition available when needed? This is an argument sometimes put forward in the general debate. But unfortunately there are a number of problems with this argument. Firstly, the economy will of course be affected by interest rate increases. Growth would slow down and inflation would fall. If one raises the rate quickly and substantially, one might even cause the economic downturn one was ultimately aiming to prevent. But even if this was not the case then, secondly, a very probable scenario would be that inflation nevertheless fell substantially, perhaps down to 1 per cent or lower, that is, to the level it was at some years ago. This could in turn mean that the credibility of the inflation target was questioned once again and economic agents would begin to expect that inflation on average would be 1 per cent rather than 2 per cent.

As the fundamental role of the financial system is financial intermediation, or the channelling of funds from those who have a surplus of it to those in need of it, the comparison should usefully be made in respect of the three channels of financial intermediation, namely, that of banking, equity and debt. The total assets of the banking system of Hong Kong are equivalent to 21% of those of the Mainland. You may think that this is not high; but if you put this along with similar comparisons for population, which is only 0.5%, or gross domestic product, which is 8%, you can appreciate the significance of the banking system of Hong Kong in the context of the country as a whole. What is more, the quality of assets in the banking system of Hong Kong is superior and the efficiency in financial intermediation, in mobilising savings in the form of deposits into the hands of borrowers who are credit-worthy, is also a lot higher. Capitalisation of the equity market of Hong Kong is 2.6 times that of the Mainland. The amount of funds raised in the past ten years in Hong Kong, through Initial Public Offerings (IPO) and other fundraising activities, is nine times that on the Mainland. The turnover value in 2005 was about 1.5 times that on the Mainland, and Hong Kong also has an active derivatives market, which traded 25 million contracts in stock futures and options last year.
In the absence of abrupt shocks, inflation is expected to drop further and stay within the target band of the Bank of Albania during the time span of the monetary policy action. Risks distribution remains overall symmetric: slower than projected economic growth would lead to a rapid reduction of inflation, while a further consolidation of imported inflation could keep inflationary pressures high for a longer time. At the end of discussions, the Supervisory Council concluded that the monetary conditions remain appropriate for meeting the medium-term inflation target and decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 5.25 %. In the near future, the downward inflation trend and shift to the downward section of the risks balance may establish the premises for a revision of the monetary policy. In any case, the future its future position shall factorise the new information obtained, aiming to adopt monetary conditions to respect our objectives. The Bank of Albania remains fully committed to anchor inflation expectations in accordance with its inflation target and to support sustainable and long-term development of the Albanian economy. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3

This is not a choice. If we don’t act effectively, the repercussions on the U.S. economy—and the global economy—are severe. In each of the past two notable market dislocations, the dysfunctions arose swiftly, and we, too, acted quickly to take steps that were effective in restoring the functioning and confidence in markets. But each event exposed weaknesses. Over time, weaknesses can erode confidence. So now, the challenge before us is this: How do we strengthen the most important market in the world in a way that helps us avoid having to take dramatic steps to cure impairments during the middle of a future crisis? How do we prepare for what we can’t foresee and can’t predict? Think Differently One thing that is clear when examining the causes of these market disruptions is that they were not primarily driven by economic forces, but rather by a failure of the markets to function in the ways they were expected to do in response to those particular circumstances. These sharp market disruptions teach us important lessons. A number of experts in this field— including the IAW G—have been doing excellent work in identifying potential solutions to ensure that similar disruptions don’t happen again. It’s essential that we all continue to work together to increase the resilience of the Treasury market—and this conference is a great opportunity to move that process forward. It’s also clear that we need not start from a position of how things are, but instead, how they should be.
Having the honour of speaking at the American Chamber of Commerce, I will – you will not be surprised – draw some comparisons with the United States of America. The first is that the euro area is an economically integrated and large economic block that, in many respects, is similar to the US. These two economies are the two largest economic areas in the world. In 1999, the euro area GDP (including Greece) was equivalent to 16% of world GDP, whereas the share of the United States was 22%. In terms of population, the United States (with 272 million inhabitants) is slightly smaller than the euro area (with 302 million inhabitants). Underlying institutional and political structures The euro is both a product and part of the process of European integration, which began already fifty years ago. This is a process that continues to evolve. The Eurosystem, comprising the ECB and the national central banks of the euro area, operates within the broader underlying framework of the European Union. In order to put this framework into perspective, allow me to draw a few simple comparisons with the US. Beginning with the similarities, I should first point out that both the EU and the US benefit from having written constitutions or constitution-like treaties. For the US, this is the constitution issued by the Philadelphia convention of 1787, while the EU's "constitution" is set out by the successive treaties which established first the European Community and later the European Union.

At the Federal Reserve, we try to meet with a diverse array of people in order to get a comprehensive picture of economic conditions in the regions we serve and a fuller understanding of the major issues. Earlier today, I met with developers and local community leaders to learn about the redevelopment of the Atlantic Yards, was welcomed to a roundtable breakfast meeting with members of the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce and then traveled to Brownsville to learn about the challenges faced by that community. Following this visit to Brooklyn College, I’m headed to Bush Terminal in Sunset Park to meet with city officials and learn about an important redevelopment project and then I’ll end the day at Etsy – a successful innovative start-up and a major private-sector employer here in Brooklyn. These trips are only one of the many ways in which we seek to engage with the people and businesses in our region. We also reach out to our local communities through web resources, workshops and conferences. To assess the performance of the regional economy, we monitor economic activity on a monthly basis, we tap into the insights of the members of our Small Business and Agriculture Advisory Council and Upstate Advisory Board, and we have constructed a consumer credit panel that allows us to better understand the financial condition of homeowners and students at the local level.
In part, this communication strategy is anchored by our forward guidance on policy measures, so that everyone understands that the conditional future policy path supports convergence to the aim. It is also supported by demonstrating agility, with the central bank communicating that it stands ready to adjust its policy measures at any time to avoid undue delay in returning to the inflation goal and combat any adverse shock to inflation dynamics. It is also crucial to the successful anchoring of inflation expectations that the central bank shows it is a learning organisation that is committed in its search for the most effective policy tools in delivering its mandate. This general principle is especially relevant during phases when economic and financial conditions pose new challenges and require novel policy responses. 16 / 19  BIS central bankers' speeches  Whether through innovations such as the Outright Monetary Transactions programme during the sovereign debt crisis or through the package of innovative policy measures that have been launched in recent years, the ECB has shown itself to be creative and proactive in responding to new challenges. In common with other central banks, the ECB must always be open to new ideas and new methods, drawing from internal and external research and examples of best practice from around the world. Of course, not all new ideas withstand sustained scrutiny, but the exploration of new methods and formulations is essential for successful performance.

14 / 19  BIS central bankers' speeches  The medium term refers to a time span that is long enough to be consistent with a central bank’s capacity to control inflation, taking into account the typical transmission lag. The horizon should be short enough for the public to be able to assess the performance of the central bank in delivering its inflation goal. At the same time, too long a span of time obstructs accountability. However, the definition of the medium term cannot be reduced to a fixed interval: it must be interpreted as state-dependent. A demand shock that pushes inflation away from its desired level and output away from potential in the same direction calls for a policy horizon as short as the typical transmission lag: the policy response to such a shock is faster and stronger than otherwise. By contrast, if the economy is hit by persistent supply-side shocks, for example, the medium-term interval can stretch well beyond the standard transmission lag of monetary policy. Furthermore, a medium-term orientation implies that inflation can deviate from our aim in both directions, so long as the path of inflation can be expected to converge back to the objective. Maintaining a medium-term orientation is facilitated by a credible commitment to the inflation goal, such that inflation expectations remain well anchored even during a prolonged phase of inflation deviation.
They should tell people whether we are meeting our commitments to regulate in a way that harnesses the UK’s strengths as a global financial centre, that maintains trust, and that is tailored to UK circumstances. They should also be designed in a way that is consistent with how Parliament has  Page 8  ranked our objectives – they should make it easy to see how we have pursued our new objective properly subject to advancing our primary objectives. For example, we know that the operational effectiveness of the PRA is important for the UK’s success as a global financial centre. That is why we have committed to increasing the frequency with which we report on our efficiency handling regulatory transactions, including authorisations. We will also provide more information on the time taken to determine cases and provide new breakdowns of these metrics by type of firm. [25] Amongst other things, this will help people understand how long it takes to set up a new bank or insurer – which clearly matters for the UK’s competitiveness. Conclusion Let me briefly sum up. Be in no doubt that our new objective will lead to big changes in how we make rules. We have already been working hard developing our ideas about what competitiveness means for the financial services industry and how it is connected to growth. We have a plan for pursuing the new objective. That plan recognizes the hierarchy of our objectives and it is focussed on what we can control.

In general, we will always listen to arguments when people disagree with us, and we will always take into account new evidence. This includes tailoring rules that are already in place in response to our own evaluations or to evidence from industry, broader civil society and other stakeholders. Page 6  This is what we did when we implemented an earlier Basel regulatory package known as CRR2. In that case, we implemented a new standard for banks’ long term funding after tailoring it to be more risk sensitive for activities that are important for the UK. That was a change we made in response to evidence-based arguments we received during the consultation. We are now taking the same approach to work on Solvency II rules for insurers. Debates between us and the Government have got a lot of public attention. But there are many areas where we fully agree about the benefits from simplifying the regime to better reflect the needs of the UK. And with the high-level policy decisions now clear, we are focused on implementation and on delivering detailed proposals for consultation. My colleague Sam Woods recently set out what we are committed to doing. [18] All of this will be on top of what we are already doing to remove unnecessary rules we inherited from our time in the EU. We have so far deleted 13 guidelines issued by EU regulators, five superseded Supervisory Statements and 26 technical standards onshored from the EU. This work will continue.
Central banks issue money in the form of cash and book money. Everyone can hold cash. Central bank book money, on the other hand, can only be held by regulated commercial banks 1 in the form of sight deposits at the central bank. The diagram shows the central bank, in dark blue, as the bank of commercial banks. It manages the accounts of commercial banks, implements monetary policy, and performs its role as lender of last resort by providing liquidity to commercial banks in the form of sight deposits.2 Commercial banks create private money in the form of book money that customers deposit with them. They compete with each other and are therefore interested in offering their customers the banking services, such as credit and payment solutions, that best meet their needs. They are also responsible for complying with anti-money-laundering and know-yourcustomer rules. Commercial banks are thus the link between the financial system, shown in light blue with the central bank at its centre, and the rest of the economy (in green). Sound and appropriate regulation plays a key role here. Banks are authorised to create private money and can obtain liquidity from the central bank, but must at the same time comply with strict capital and liquidity requirements. This brings me to the second principle: All payments that are important for the system as a whole are to be settled in risk-free central bank money (cf. slide 2). 3 These payments are represented by the dark blue lines.

And from August 2024, the largest commercial banks active in retail payment transactions will be offering their customers the possibility of receiving instant payments. However, for instant payments actually to be available to commercial banks’ end customers, private sector solutions are still needed. According to surveys, many commercial banks are also planning to offer the possibility of sending instant payments from August 2024 onward. Competition among commercial banks should ensure that efficient payment solutions are offered to end customers, for example in ebanking. What do instant payments mean for the two-tier financial system? Instant payments settled in central bank money are an example of how our first principle – the division of labour between the central bank and the private sector in the two-tier financial system – enables successful implementation of innovations. With the introduction of instant payments, the end customers of SIC participants will also be able to settle their payments securely, quickly and in central bank money. In Switzerland, the irrevocable and secure transfer of value in central bank money in real time has to date only been possible for participants directly connected to the SIC system. This expansion of the group of participants brought about by instant payments corresponds to our second principle: the secure settlement of payments in central bank money. What about our third principle, the seamless integration of payment methods and forms of money? It is precisely here that we find the most significant innovation prompted by instant payments.
What matters is that the system as a whole has the right level of liquidity to cope with volatility in derivatives markets in a stress and that liquidity is in the right place  We need to understand which market participants were caught flat-footed and why. Thanks to post- 2008 liquidity reforms, banks seemed able to handle the liquidity pressures they faced in March, including from margin calls. But non-banks such insurers, pension funds, hedge funds and asset managers have grown in importance over the past decade - we need to examine how well prepared they were to face the liquidity demands around margins. It’s too early to reach policy conclusions. But to preview the options in front of us: It’s possible we’ll want to explore solutions that could reduce the need for CCP margin to rise as much in stress by pre-positioning more liquidity at CCPs during quiet periods. It’s possible we could accomplish this by spreading existing good practices in CCP model design. It’s equally possible we’ll want to focus on better liquidity risk management, particularly for non-banks. This could make sure market participants self-insure against margin calls on their own balance sheets – rather than pre-positioning initial margin at the CCP. Improving transparency around potential margin calls could help support this. It’s possible that we’ll want to do some of both. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  10  The right balance of policy responses will depend on what evidence we find.

To be clear, the question here is not about whether CCP margin is to “blame” for the dash-for-cash. The question is did the system have enough liquidity ready in the right places to respond to derivative market volatility without adverse consequences for financial stability. Whatever we conclude, our policy response will need to take into account the whole story- including the essential role that margin played in preventing panic. We don’t want to return to the pre-Lehman world of a spaghetti bowl of counterparty credit risk. 4. Conclusion  So going back to my original questions. First, what has the experience of March and April told us about the reforms we put in place post-2008 to make the global financial system simpler? A: The headline answer is: It worked. When it comes to the crucial goal of preventing panic fuelled by a spaghetti bowl of bilateral derivatives exposures, the new system held up despite unprecedented stress. Second, where do we go from here? A: I have two recommendations:  First, we need global regulatory cooperation in order to avoid reverting to fragmentation and spaghetti. Trust based on proportionate, informed reliance. Second, if we want the simpler system to keep working, global regulators need to stay ahead of the curve and keep the system under review. We cannot ignore the fire the financial system experienced in March and April last year just because central banks did a good job putting it out. We need to look behind the walls and address any faults in the wiring.