In terms of quarterly performance, a significant rebound is expected over the summer in line with the removal of the most severe lockdown measures. However, the scenarios differ in terms of the duration and severity of virus-related restrictions on economic activity and the behaviour of households and firms in the rest of 2020 and throughout 2021. In all scenarios, a deep recession is envisaged: in the severe scenario, real GDP would fall by 12 percent in 2020. Chart 1 Euro area real GDP under the mild, medium and severe scenarios  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200519~e5203d3520.en.html  1/14  5/19/2020  Pandemic central banking: the monetary stance, market stabilisation and liquidity  (index, 2019 Q4 = 100)  Source: ECB calculations. Note: For details on the scenarios, see Battistini, N. and Stoevsky, G (2020), “Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 3, European Central Bank. Chart 2 shows the household savings rate, as projected in the European Commission Spring Forecast that was published a couple of weeks ago. The household savings rate is forecast to jump by a remarkable 6 percentage points to around 19 percent for 2020, and is expected to remain elevated even in 2021. Although “forced saving” during the lockdown is surely contributing to the increase in household saving, it is plausible that the precautionary motive will remain significant so long as virus-related uncertainty persists. Elevated uncertainty may also hamper investment prospects for an extended period of time.

Looking at the short to medium end of the risk-free curve in more detail, our measures (including the pandemic emergency purchase programme, or PEPP) have contributed to a lowering of the medium and long segments of the yield curve compared to the pre-crisis path (Chart 7). Chart 7 EONIA forward curve estimated from overnight index swaps  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200519~e5203d3520.en.html  5/14  5/19/2020  Pandemic central banking: the monetary stance, market stabilisation and liquidity  (percentages per annum)  Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv and ECB calculations. Note: The latest observations are for 14 May 2020 (for realised EONIA). At the long end of the curve, the combined effect of our asset purchase programmes – comprising the asset purchase programme (APP) and the PEPP – is estimated to compress the term premium significantly by around 80 basis points at the ten-year tenor. Looking just at the decisions we have taken since March, the additional € billion APP purchase envelope for 2020 and the PEPP contribute to a further easing of ten-year rates by lowering the term premium by more than 10 basis points. The total effect of these decisions on longer-term interest rates is likely to be even more substantial, given that the PEPP not only works through the well-known channels of duration extraction and portfolio rebalancing, but also addresses risks to transmission in the euro area. To the extent that this lowers risk premia, interest rates in the euro area have declined even more strongly as a result of our decisions compared with plausible counterfactual scenarios.