samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
12 By doing so, we diversify risk. We are in a period marked by high oil and gas production and high prices. Substantial resources are therefore transferred from the one account to the other. Combined with high returns, the result is that the value of the Government Pension Fund is rising rapidly and may continue to do so in the years ahead. The Fund is now approaching the nominal value of one year’s GDP and may reach two in the course of the next decade. This is based on the assumption that oil prices remain high over the next few years and then fall to about USD 30 per barrel. Experience has shown that forecasts for both oil production and oil prices are highly uncertain. The government bases its withdrawals from the Fund on an average real return of 4 per cent for financing current expenditure. Given this spending rule, the return may come to finance more than 15 per cent of government expenditure in 10 years. We thus reap considerable benefits from managing our petroleum wealth well. The return represents future income that we forego if we draw on this wealth today. But even with this source of income, more than 80 per cent of expenditure must be covered by other sources. Financing the large pension payments that will have to be disbursed after 2012 will be very demanding in any event.

Of course, whether further consolidation actually takes place, and if so when, is for the players and the market to decide. But further opening up of the banking sector is inevitable. We have been negotiating FTAs with Australia and the US, and are very close to reaching agreement with both. Our FTA partners expect to be given greater access to our financial sector. The local banks must brace themselves for further liberalisation, by upgrading themselves and keeping pace with international best practices. Capital markets In the capital markets, the Stock Exchange of Singapore and SIMEX have demutualised and merged to form the Singapore Exchange (SGX). SGX is now listed and has expanded its product offerings to include single stock and bond futures, and exchange-traded funds. In the stockbroking industry, with the liberalisation of fees and opening up of access, commissions have shrunk. The brokerages have been consolidating, upgrading their capabilities and widening their service and product offerings. Now, your broker will not only buy and sell shares for you, but may also help you to invest in unit trusts or cash management accounts, or give you financial advice. But the restructuring is taking place in a very difficult bear market, and the process is not yet complete. From the point of view of growing the industry, the results of the liberalisation have been disappointing. There has been no post-liberalisation “Big Bang” in the local capital markets. This is partly the result of poor market conditions globally, and partly the way equities markets have developed.
At the same time, there has been a considerable decrease in prices for our imports, such as clothing, footwear and electronic equipment. From 2003 to 2008, this improvement in Norway’s terms of trade alone boosted national income by more than 20 per cent, or a good 4 per cent per year. The picture of Norway’s favourable situation has been reinforced by the very severe impact of the financial crisis on other western economies, while Norway seems to have emerged with nothing more than a mild downturn. Nevertheless, there are many challenges ahead. Chart 1 Relative labour costs Deviation from the average for the period 1970–2009 Per cent, 1990–20101  1  Figures for 2010 are an average for the period 1 January–19 August 2010. A rising curve indicates weaker competitiveness. Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements (TBU), OECD, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank. Norwegian labour has never been as costly as it is now. Norwegian businesses may lose out in the competition for contracts given the current high level of spare capacity in other countries. There are frequent reports of businesses relocating activities to neighbouring countries, such as Sweden. Labour in Sweden is perhaps as much as 30 per cent cheaper than in Norway and the two countries are closely connected in terms of language and culture. The management of Norway’s oil wealth poses another challenge.

The ultimate vision is for the Asia School of Business to be a premier business school that develops transformative and principled leaders who will contribute to the advancement of the emerging world, particularly in Asia. Bank Negara Malaysia’s commitment to this collaboration is not only in providing the 20-acre land that is in the green lung of Kuala Lumpur for the campus and in building state-of-the-art facilities for the School, but being very much part of the Asian region, we hope that Malaysia, and more specifically, the Central Bank, will also be leveraged upon for our knowledge and experience in the region. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Located in the heart of Asia, Malaysia offers an eclectic mix of cultures and ethnic backgrounds that reflects the heterogeneity of Asia. As a highly open economy, Malaysia has strong economic and financial inter-linkages with the world, from Asia to the advanced economies and other emerging economies, including Latin America, the Middle East and Central Asia. The School will, therefore, draw extensively from the network of businesses in the emerging world to provide a platform for learning and research, and thus offer an extensive experience of the diversity that exists, in particular, in Asia. With the strength founded in the collaboration, I am confident of our potential to develop the Asia School of Business on solid foundations. The Bank looks forward to working with MIT Sloan in making this collaboration a success.
2  In a more restrictive experiment in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes still occur. See Vivian Lei, Charles N. Noussair, and Charles R. Plott. 2001. “Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality.” Econometrica 69, no. 4 (July): 831–59. 3  One might argue that an innovation is not a necessary condition for an asset bubble. For example, the run-up of the dollar in the mid-1980s was not associated with any particular innovation. Instead, a sharp shift in fiscal policy led to high real interest rates that stimulated a strong demand for the dollar, which caused the dollar to appreciate sharply. This eventually unwound as the dollar’s rise undercut U.S. trade competitiveness. This caused the U.S. economy to slow, interest rates to decline and the dollar to fall. The lack of experience with a floating exchange rate regime undoubtedly played a role here. The world moved to a floating exchange rate system in the early 1970s. There was not much experience with how an expansive fiscal policy would affect exchange rates. This undoubtedly increased uncertainty about the sustainability of the dollar’s appreciation. 2  BIS Review 43/2010  For example, the technology stock market boom in the late 1990s coincided with the development of the Internet, which fostered the reorganization of many business processes and generated significant productivity improvements.

For example, the technology stocks associated with initial public offerings were very difficult to short because the available supply or “float” was small – a high proportion of the shares in the companies were held by the original venture capital investors and subject to lock-up periods before the shares could be lent out to short sellers or sold. Similarly, housing is notoriously difficult to short. The option of selling one’s home in order to rent is expensive not only in terms of time and effort, but also in terms of transaction costs. And, shorting complex structured finance products was difficult because there were no standardized instruments; the securities rarely traded and were very difficult to value. It was not until the development of the ABX indexes – which allowed investors to buy and sell credit default swaps on pools of structured finance obligations – that investors had a vehicle that allowed them to short subprime mortgagebacked securities more easily. 6 Asset bubbles often come to an end when the basic belief system is contradicted by events. This can happen very naturally as a matter of course because economic fundamentals deteriorate, or because there is a change in rules or regulations that disrupts the balance between supply and demand. In the technology boom, this might occur because each company cannot get to the market first. So even if there is a first-mover advantage, not everyone will be able to take advantage of it.
Loans with homes and other kinds of property as collateral make up about 80 per cent of the major banks’ loans to Swedish households and companies. Loans to households for mortgage purposes make up the very greatest part of this. This exposure has increased over the last decade. Therefore, as I have pointed out on a number of previous occasions, what has happened is that the major banks that are usually described as commercial banks, have, in fact, become ‘mortgage banks’. The increased lending depends, among other factors, on rapidly rising housing prices and historically low interest rates, but also on the number of households and completed homes having increased over the period. 11 The banks fund these mortgages to a high degree on the capital market, in particular with covered bonds, the collateral for which is made up of mortgages. As mortgages have grown, so have the volumes of covered bonds, some of which are issued in foreign currency. Developments on the housing market can thus also affect confidence in the banks and, in a bad situation, their funding could also become both more expensive and more difficult to obtain. The fact that the major banks also own one another’s covered bonds increases the risks still further. Housing policy benefits certain groups Apart from rising housing prices leading to increased indebtedness for households, there are also other aspects of the housing market that are problematic.

5 Today, I would like to discuss how we can balance today's challenges against tomorrow’s gains. In my opinion, we must adopt measures that can be seen as costly today to solve problems that could improve the housing market in the long term. And managing the problems on the housing market will require other/more measures than those falling within the framework of macroprudential policy. For the Riksbank, it is important to monitor the housing market: it is well documented by empirical studies that a rapid increase in debt increases the probability of financial crises and falling prices on the housing market. The economy can also become more sensitive to various shocks if households (and companies) are highly  4 See, for example, Bäckman, C, C Lutz (2018) and Cunliffe, J (2019). 5 See Finocchario et al. (2016). 2 [13]  indebted. The studies also show that, if the banking system has large exposures to the housing market, financial stability can be threatened. 6 In the Riksbank’s task of promoting financial stability 7, it is therefore important to ensure that the banks and their borrowers have resilience to shocks that could threaten financial stability. In addition, if financial stability should start to falter, there exists a risk that it would become more difficult to conduct monetary policy.
However, activity is expected to continue to be dampened somewhat by the process of balance sheet adjustment in various sectors. This assessment is also reflected in the June 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between 1.5% and 2.3 % in 2011 and between 0.6% and 2.8% in 2012. Compared with the March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the range for 2011 has been revised upwards, while the range for 2012 remains broadly unchanged. The June 2011 Eurosystem staff projections are broadly in line with recent forecasts by international organisations. In the Governing Council’s assessment, the risks to this economic outlook remain broadly balanced in an environment of elevated uncertainty. On the one hand, favourable business confidence could provide more support to domestic economic activity in the euro area than currently expected and higher foreign demand could also contribute more strongly to growth than expected. On the other hand, downside risks relate to the ongoing tensions in some segments of the financial markets that may potentially spill over to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to further increases in energy prices, protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.7% in May according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, after 2.8% in April. The relatively high inflation rates seen over the past few months largely reflect higher energy and commodity prices.

Without appropriate, 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  quality, timely and sufficiently granular data, a good evaluation is not possible. In the private sector they talk about the data economy. New sectors of activity have risen round data compilation and monetisation; and other, more traditional sectors have seen their competitive dynamics crucially affected by the use of data or by technology, as the changes in the financial sector – to use an example close to home – testify. The public sector cannot fall behind in data processing. Greater data storage and processing capacity has increased exponentially the possibilities of extending our knowledge of reality. The general government sector is not impervious to these developments. Indeed, as part of its daily activity it amasses a vast amount of information which, once appropriately processed, can be crucial in making a reliable diagnosis of the problems society faces, and also of the most suitable policies to address them. The crossing and sharing of data by the different segments of government increases diagnosis and evaluation capacities in an accelerated fashion. Making these appropriately anonymised data available to the research community is an opportunity to enhance our knowledge. And it also adds a further control mechanism for the authorities, which reinforces the quality of public debate and of democracy. The data laboratory recently launched by the Banco de España (BELab) is a good example of this service to society, since it places the microdata of many of our main databases at the disposal of researchers.
Vickery, James and Joshua Wright (2013). “TBA Trading and Liquidity in the Agency MBS Market.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, Forthcoming. Wright, Jonathan H. (2012). “What Does Monetary Policy Do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?” NBER Working Paper Series 17154. Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, June. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  While capital flow risks have become more complicated, the issue faced by policymakers remains unchanged – that is, how can we better manage these risks and yet maximise the benefits that come with capital flows. The experience of our economies in dealing with capital flow volatility underscores the need to ensure our economic fundamentals are robust. While this is necessary, it is not sufficient. We have seen how external developments that are beyond our control, such as Taper Tantrum and trade tensions, could trigger periods of sharp capital flow volatility in emerging economies with severe consequences. There are “innocent bystanders” who are gravely impacted. It is therefore imperative that collectively, we continue to urge the global community to better manage the risks arising from financial openness. More needs to be done at the international level to have, to quote IMF MD Christine Lagarde, “safer capital flows". Nevertheless, we have to recognise that it is not easy to expect change at the international level. It will definitely take time. While the global community continues to debate and explore possible solutions to manage spillovers and spillbacks of policies in advanced economies, our economies will have to continue to grapple with capital flow volatility and its consequences on financial and macroeconomic stability. Therefore, I strongly believe that emerging economies must have the necessary domestic policy space in dealing with capital flows.
The reasons for this relatively strong performance are manifold: To start with, Switzerland did not suffer from a housing market correction or over-indebtedness of the private sector. Moreover, favourable labour market conditions and migration have remained a constant support to private consumption. Chart 5 shows the level of GDP for different countries, indexed to 100 at the respective precrisis peak. Swiss GDP is now nearly 8% above its pre-crisis peak. As can be seen in the chart, among large advanced economies this performance is matched only by the US. Economic growth held up relatively well even in years when the economy faced a strong and abrupt exchange rate appreciation. A major factor here is monetary policy: With its monetary policy measures, the SNB was able to absorb some of the risks affecting the economy during the various episodes of the financial crisis. Another factor is the Swiss economy’s high degree of competiveness. Chart 6 shows that Switzerland topped the global competitiveness ranking once again in the World Economic Forum’s report for 2015–2016. Swiss companies’ technological readiness, business sophistication and flexibility are among the factors that make Switzerland one of the most competitive countries in the world. This is not to say that adjustment is painless. Far from it: Organisational changes are never easy and cost-cutting is often painful – especially for employees. Moreover, the relative resilience of real GDP growth is to some extent due to companies’ willingness to accept lower profit margins. Chart 7 shows real, i.e. inflation-adjusted, export volumes and nominal export turnover.

The success of the reforms will indeed hinge on perseverance – as no reform has a one-year pay-back – and on their overall consistency, as all reforms are in a close interaction. Let me start first with the interaction between the public debt, efficient public spending and the tax system. Although some progress has already been achieved, structural public finance reforms are still needed. Thanks to the strong economic growth in 2017, the headline deficit fell below the 3% threshold, reaching 2.6% of GDP, and finally complies with the Stability and Growth Pact deficit rule. A tax reform was voted last Fall, lowering the tax burden on companies and on capital: the corporate tax rate will gradually fall from 33% to 25% in 2022 and personal capital income will be taxed by a flat rate from 2018. And last week, the French government published its revised medium-term targets: the public deficit is projected to turn into a slight surplus by 2022, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio – which reached 97.0% of GDP in 2017 – would decline by almost 8 percentage points at the same 5-year horizon. This ambition is very welcome but the better-thanexpected results of 2017 should not make us complacent about the remaining challenges. Even with favourable cyclical conditions and persistently above-trend GDP growth forecasts, the success of the consolidation strategy will depend on capping public spending growth.
It is by all means a very ambitious project that includes more than 55 activities and benchmarks, more than 10 directives to be transposed, several legal acts to be prepared, and many internal procedures to be created for a better supervision that complies with the international best practices. This project comes at a very specific moment for the global financial sector. It aims to create conditions for long term economic stability and growth by strengthening the regulatory and supervisory frameworks of the capital and financial markets and by improving the institutional and regulatory capacities of the financial sector regulators to supervise financial markets and institutions in line with the EU acquis. Therefore, the objectives of the Twinning Project are fully in line with the main lesson from the crisis – that stability and growth cannot be maintained without a stable and well functioning financial sector. First, let me present our consortium and the project team. The consortium unites the experience of a Еurosystem central bank (De Netherlandsche Bank) – with a proven track record of successful technical assistance projects for accession country institutions – together with the expertise of the Bulgarian National Bank and the Financial Supervision Commission, both having the most recent and relevant experience in EU harmonization in a new Member State. This combination of experience is further strengthened by the longstanding and successful cooperation between the consortium members. The advantage of having a consortium is that it offers larger experience and a broader pull of experts from the twinning partner institutions.

Ivan Iskrov: Strengthening the regulatory and supervisory capacity of the financial regulators Opening remarks by Mr Ivan Iskrov, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the official opening ceremony of the Twinning Project “Strengthening the Regulatory and Supervisory Capacity of the Financial Regulators”, Podgorica, Montenegro, 15 December 2009. *  *  *  Dear Twinning Partners, Your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, We have gathered here to start the Twinning Project “Strengthening the Regulatory and Supervisory Capacity of the Financial Regulators” funded by the European Union. It is my pleasure and privilege as the Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, which is the lead institution managing this project, to express on behalf of the management of the BNB our strong commitment to work with the twinning partners during the next 18 months to achieve the targeted results. In times of trouble when all financial supervisors are under severe pressure and when many projects in the financial sector tendered by the European Commission failed to find interest among EU member states, we are committing our resources, our best experts, expertise and knowledge to this project. The Republic of Bulgaria supports the European prospects for the Western Balkans, and Montenegro in particular. We strongly believe that our joint work will contribute to the country’s progress on the path of European integration.