samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
It is sometimes hard to explain where this inflow comes from, but it indicates that in the economy there are sources that generate income, that create savings potential, meaning, the savings, although maybe not sufficient, is still substantial in our country and that deposit growth is just below the one in the good years, but it is positive and continuous, which is encouraging. Does this mean that the banks are more focused on collecting capital, than releasing money in the economy in form of credits? We can state that the deposit growth is higher than the one in the last several years, but the deposit growth is also a reflection of lack of enough alternatives for investments. You know  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  that the stock exchange is in standstill, we don't have some other developed financial markets where the citizens can place their savings, so every savings is mainly placed in form of banks deposit. Despite the inflation slows down, in the last several months, according to the NBRM estimations, it seems that the banks restrain over landing. Is this an indicator for the unfavorable conditions in the economy, or on the market, or is it a try for further reduction of the inflation? No, the inflation is not an issue, since it is on quite moderate level, 2.8 percentages is the latest data for August and we expect average inflation of about 2.8 percentages for the entire year, there is no probability for inflationary pressures in the following period.

It means, the foreign savings is necessary, and part of it will pour through the foreign direct investments, while part through debiting. Of course, speaking from the viewpoint of the monetary policy, we would like to see the state to borrow also from abroad, not only on the domestic market, because it gives additional security and stabilization to the Macedonian economy. The level of debt is still moderate and causes no other unfavorable implications. So, whether like it or not, we must borrow, better abroad, in order to, if not else, cover also the current expenditures? Well, the state budget is structured in such a manner that it has a deficit, meaning a need of funding, but whether that funding is used for current or capital needs, it is hard to say, because it is one account of the Government from which all those needs are covered. If a problem regarding the repayment emerges, hypothetically, does it mean that the monetary policy can feel the consequences as well? The fiscal and the monetary policy are, of course, interleaving and the monetary policy is always adjusted in order to maintain the balance in the Macedonian economy. If we come to a situation when this balance is disturbed, the monetary policy will adequately react in order to restore the balance. The foreign reserves for a month "melted" by approximately Euro 80 million. Has these reserves been spent for maintaining the stability of the Denar, or for other purposes?
Converting our quantitative and qualitative challenges into unprecedented opportunities 2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Our objective is to enhance the role of the financial system, not only to manage climate change– related risks, but also to “mobilise capital for green and low-carbon investments.”14 But  financing the transition to a low-carbon economy is both a quantitative and qualitative challenge. [slide 5] The quantitative challenge is linked to the massive investment required in three areas: first, infrastructure and technical solutions, especially in transport, energy production and consumption and agriculture; second, intangible goods, including continuous training and research; and third, the adaptation and improvement of existing structures, notably the thermal rehabilitation of buildings. The needs are so considerable that public financing alone will never be sufficient: as an illustration, the estimated global needs could reach USD 90 trillion over the next 15 years for new green infrastructure alone.15 Fortunately, the private sector is already showing a growing interest in green finance. I could cite many examples, including the sharp rise in the global green bond market, +78% in 2017,16 or the success of the issuance of France’s first green sovereign bond in January 2017 with EUR 7 billion allocated and total demand of more than EUR 23 billion, and supplemented yesterday. All this looks very promising… but it is still insufficient. The systematic oversubscription of green bonds at issuance is actually a sign that there is a lack of green financial products.

This is a strengthening compared to the earlier agreement among the euro area countries, changing the requirement from targeting the cyclically adjusted deficit to targeting an improvement in the structural deficit. When deciding the adjustment path, public investment and structural reforms can be taken into account. If structural reforms are to be taken into account, they should have a large and proven positive effect on the economy and there should be a safety margin to the 3% deficit floor. My view is that there is a possibility to use the newly defined MTOs in a wise manner, more closely adapted to the situation of the individual country. However, the scope for interpretation is so large that there is a high risk of lax and uneven implementation. The experiences of the first year indicate that some member states have more ambitious MTOs than required by the Pact. This is often countries with their own national budgetary rules, such as Sweden, which comprise MTOs. At the same time,  2  BIS Review 88/2006  there are other member states who need to do more to achieve their MTOs. The measures are often postponed too far ahead and are not sufficiently explicit and concrete. Changes in the corrective arm The third part of the changes refers to what happens when a country has an excessive deficit. As before, exemptions can be granted if the country is suffering from a severe economic downturn that it could not foresee, so called exceptional circumstances.
The long-term inflation expectations then play an important role. Here we can mainly have an effect by conducting a credible monetary policy. Long-term interest rates are also affected by the economic outlook and by long-term growth. The level of the repo rate is set so that inflation will be close to the target within a couple of years at the same time as inflation and the real economy should not show excessive fluctuations. What is known as the transmission mechanism is often described in terms of the different channels through which the repo rate has an effect on the real economy and inflation; the interest rate channel, the credit channel and the exchange rate channel. According to the “interest rate channel”, higher interest rates normally make it more attractive to save. A higher interest rate also means that it becomes more expensive for companies to finance investments, and for households to borrow for consumption. The “credit channel” describes how monetary policy’s impact on the economy can be reinforced by companies’ and households’ credit ratings declining when interest rates are higher. Households and companies find it more difficult to borrow money. All in all, a higher repo rate dampens household consumption and corporate investment and thereby also total demand in the economy. This in turn means that production growth slackens and resource utilisation is lower. Prices and wages then rise at a slower rate. The “exchange rate channel” describes how monetary policy affects the value of the currency.

Nor has there been reason to take any measures on the basis of our other task, safeguarding financial stability. Swedish banks are profitable and financially strong, and therefore have good opportunities to manage unexpected negative events. The role of central banks in times of financial turmoil The role of central banks is to safeguard economic stability. We can do this best by focussing on achieving our objectives, that is, price stability and financial stability. However, the recent developments in the financial markets have illustrated the importance of increased cooperation both with other Swedish financial authorities and among countries’ central banks. One important challenge is to manage financial crises which risk spreading across national borders. In December 2007 and March 2008 the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB coordinated measures to meet the banks’ needs of short-term financing. The Riksbank expressed its support for this action, although we did not consider it necessary to take corresponding measures in the Swedish financial system. BIS Review 51/2008  7  It is not self-evident what the role of the central bank should be when uncertainty and financial turmoil create problems in certain parts of the financial markets. The fact that central banks take measures to ensure the targeted interest rate is at the right level may appear reasonable. Similarly, we can observe that several central banks see arguments in favour of also influencing interest rates with a slightly longer duration.
On this front, a risk manager and a bank supervisor share similar interests. A risk manager seeks the best risk measures and management techniques to protect a bank against losses, to hone its competitiveness, and to enhance its profitability and long-term growth. Supervisors, for their part, advocate the use of sound risk management practices to ensure the adequate capitalisation and prudent management of all banks. This, in turn, strengthens the ability of financial sector to withstand periods of distress, to serve as an intermediary of credit through good times and bad, and to contribute to more sustainable growth in the economy. The Basel Committee’s landmark revision of the international bank capital standard represents one of the most important global efforts to encourage the responsible pursuit of risk and rewards and, hence, to promote greater financial stability. This represents the outgrowth of trends in many countries to build incentives into the regulatory framework that encourage banks to identify and understand the risks they face today, to consider what risks may arise tomorrow, and to respond actively and appropriately to both. You’ve been discussing this topic here in Paris for two days now, but all of us have been thinking long and hard about the New Basel Accord for many years. That should come as no surprise, as capital requirements are the foundation of the regulatory framework. Even more importantly, capital is a key ingredient to the health of the banking sector.

More generally, by emphasising principles in the rules - that an AMA must be credible, that it must adequately capture the  4  BIS Review 45/2003  risk of extreme events, that it must be used by banks in the daily management of their operational risk and not just for regulatory capital purposes - enhanced disclosure and transparency may actually result in more consistency in the application of advanced approaches than detailed quantitative criteria. Conclusion The Committee will need to spend the next few months discussing these three themes internally and with the industry to refine the qualifying criteria for the AMA, to determine how best to allocate operational risk capital, and to ensure a level playing field in the application of the operational risk framework. As we conclude today’s conference, I think all of us have a better sense of the work that is ahead for both bankers and supervisors. At the same time, it’s clear from the issues and themes that you’ve been discussing at this conference that we’ve moved beyond a discussion of the principles behind the rules and to a focus on preparing for their implementation. This seems appropriate, since we expect that, given the very good progress that we have noted in banks preparing to adopt the New Accord, supervisors and the industry will be ready to implement the new rules by the end of 2006.
(2009), Fiscal Policy with Credit Constrained Households, European Economy Economic Paper No 357 and ECB Monthly Bulletin Box (2012), Fiscal multipliers based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model, December 2012, pages 83–85  11  See Reinhart C., V. Reinhart, K. Rogoff (2012), Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800, Journal of Economic Perspective, 26(3), pages 69–86, and Checherita-Westphal C., P. Rother (2012), The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: an empirical investigation for the euro area, European Economic Review, 56, pages 1392–1405. 12  See De Fiore F., H. Uhlig, 2011, Bank Finance versus Bond Finance, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 43, pages 1399–1421. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  alleviated the funding constraints of banks extending loans to SMEs by accepting such loans, and asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by pools of loans, as collateral in its monetary policy operations. The Banco de Portugal has been proactive in implementing these measures. Additional credit claims alone account for around 15 percent of total collateral posted by Portuguese banks with the ECB, and help to generate a large collateral buffer. The ECB will support a revival of the ABS market in the euro area, which would help SMEs to benefit from the improving financing conditions. Let me also point out that the restructuring and strong capitalisation of banks is an important condition for restoring the smooth provision of credit to euro area corporates and households.

In countries where the banking sector has experienced large balance sheet shocks related to deteriorating sovereign debt, access to bank credit has tightened substantially. Elevated risk premia in the stressed countries have in turn had repercussions on access to finance, in particular for SMEs. In contrast, large corporations can resort to corporate debt instead of bank loans, especially during financial crises, or to foreign loans instead of domestic loans in the case of large multinationals, as happened, for instance, in Ireland.12 SMEs employ around three-quarters of the euro area’s workforce and they generate around 60% of its value added. Their restricted access to finance in a number of euro area countries is clearly a threat to economic recovery. A number of governments, including Portugal’s, are implementing measures to support the financing of SMEs. We see these measures together with the use of EU financial instruments (EIB and EU structural funds) as very important in unlocking access to funding and investment growth. The ECB has  9  See Blanchard O., D. Leigh (2012), Global Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Working Paper No 13/1. 10  See Roeger W., in ‘t Veld J.
For example, a body whose members are appointed by the King would not be “independent” of the King (or the ministry).” Source: “The constitutional power to delegate decision-making authority to “independent” bodies”. Appendix 5 to NOU [Official Norwegian Report] 1997:19: Better privacy protection. 42  We can refer to Norges Bank’s reputation survey. In an otherwise positive report, some respondents were of the view that Norges Bank is closed and somewhat unresponsive. See Press release 24 June 2010. 43  See Section 3 of the Norges Bank Act. BIS Review 154/2010  13  Financial stability A challenge for the central bank is that there is a gap between the instruments at the Bank’s disposal in the area of financial stability and the existing expectations that the Bank can ensure the stability of the financial system. If liquidity dries up among banks in Norway or abroad, they are certain to turn to the central bank. The central bank acts as lender of last resort, as it can always supply liquidity in Norwegian kroner. Moreover, the central bank holds foreign exchange reserves that can be made available to the banks in critical situations. But we have no formal competence with regard to financial market regulation and prevention. What we can do is offer advice concerning regulation and set terms for banks’ loans from the central bank.

And there will be more to come. We look forward to the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and looking further ahead, the Mainland authorities have announced plans to consider implementing the Qualified Domestic Individual Investors scheme (QDII2) on a trial basis. It’s certainly true that individuals on the Mainland have shown a great deal of interest in diversifying their investment holdings. This is an area where we see Hong Kong having a strong competitive advantage, with our strategic location, our expertise in private banking and wealth management business, coupled with our strong client networks on the Mainland. To  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  capitalise on these emerging opportunities, we have been liaising closely with the Mainland authorities on QDII2.The second trend is that not only is Chinese capital “going out”, Chinese companies are also increasingly "going out". Outward direct investments (ODI) by China to the rest of the world amounted to RMB758.5 billion in 2014, a 63% rise over the past five years. And, it’s interesting to note that 16% of these flows are settled in RMB, up from a mere 3.7% in 2011. This “going out” trend has been continuing for some time, but has been given fresh impetus by the greater desire of Chinese enterprises to diversify into other non-RMB asset classes. New policy measures by the Mainland authorities, notably the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, has also played a key role.
The rationale of our regime, i.e., providing support to the currency, does indeed require us to mirror interest rates offered by other currencies – primarily the euro since we moved to a full peg last May – , but in addition we also need to offer a premium to holders of Maltese lira assets to compensate for the small size and vulnerability of our economy. Our judgement on the appropriate size of that premium at any point in time, complemented by considerations relating to financial market sentiment and economic conditions generally, determines our decisions on the Bank’s central intervention rate. The markets have so far judged the interest rate premium on the lira as being appropriate. 4  BIS Review 16/2006  7. It would be ironic if the government were to meet the fiscal criterion for euro adoption, but fail because of the inflation rate. What interest rate policy will the Bank adopt in this regard? I have already explained that the focus of monetary policy in a fixed peg regime is the exchange rate. Unlike most countries with a floating regime, we are not inflation targeters. The Bank’s ability to influence price levels directly through its power to change short-term interest rates in the money market is, therefore, rather limited.

Exploiting the new market opportunities takes time because institutional structures and  BIS Review 16/2006  1  operating practices need to be adapted. Some of the funds Malta is getting from the EU are being used precisely to strengthen the economy’s export potential. At the same time, it is also true that the EU economy did not grow as rapidly as anticipated in 2005. It expanded by 1.6 per cent, compared with 2.3 per cent in 2004. A higher proportion than ever of consumer demand, moreover, was satisfied by imports from more competitive producers at the expense of established suppliers. Finally, as I have already observed, the persistence of sluggish growth in the Maltese economy cannot be explained exclusively in terms of a cyclical downturn. Delays in implementing effective competitiveness-enhancing reforms were also a factor. As a result, the economy was not fully prepared to exploit the single market. 3. In these circumstances, isn’t this the worst time to be strait-jacketed by the conditions for euro adoption? Wouldn’t a fiscal boost speed up economic growth, now that your already limited monetary policy tools have been put in the shed? Allow me first to correct two misconceptions implicit in your second question. For a start, our monetary policy tools have not been put away but are available for use if needed, as was the case in April last year when the Bank’s central intervention rate was raised by 25 basis points.
From that, we articulate a strategy of actions by the bank to mitigate the likelihood and the consequence of those risks. The nature and intensity of the supervisory strategy for a firm – and the resources we allocate – are proportional to the scale of the risks to its safety and soundness, and to the threat the firm poses to the wider economy. We then monitor progress against the delivery of the strategy, as well as the underlying risks themselves. This approach relies on judgement – about where the key risks lie, the supervisory strategy required to mitigate those risks, and how to respond to risks crystallising. It is a matter of debate how far and how fast AI will be able to move in the direction of making complex judgements. It seems to me to be highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. Perhaps the main contribution it will make is to improve the efficiency and productiveness of strategy-setting. A typical problem faced by supervisors, for example, is the ‘needle-in-a-haystack’ problem: if something is going wrong in a firm, it can be necessary to find out who in the firm made relevant decisions, based on what information, and why the checks and balances of the firm – the board, and second and third lines of defence – did not work. Advanced analytics can assist. The information to investigate would likely come in many forms – spreadsheets, regulatory returns, management information, e-mails, meeting agendas and minutes.

Fundanga: Islamic banking – building partnerships for development Opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, to the Islamic Banking Conference “Building partnerships for development”, Lusaka, 20 October 2008. *  *  *  The Guest Speaker, Mr. Ahmad Zaini Bin Othman Chief Executive Officers of Banks and Non bank financial institutions; Distinguished invited guests; Colleagues; Ladies and gentlemen; On behalf of the Bank of Zambia and indeed on my own behalf, I would like to extend a very warm welcome to you all to this important conference on Islamic Banking. To our Guest Speaker, Mr Ahmed Zaini Othman, I wish to extend a special welcome to you to Zambia and in particular to Lusaka, the capital city. Like the rest of Zambia, Lusaka is a city of tranquility with an easygoing African charm. The city is not short of interesting sites and places to visit. I therefore urge you to find time or indeed stay an extra day or more to sample this special menu that Lusaka offers. I also wish to extend my sincere thanks to Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, the Islamic Council of Zambia and the Eastern Province Chamber of Commerce and Industry for graciously accepting to make presentations at this conference. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Bank of Zambia is honoured and delighted to host the first Islamic Banking Conference in Zambia that begins today, the 20th and ends on 21st October, 2008.