samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
For example as we move closer to ending too big to fail, and with standardised compensation schemes for retail depositors, one could reasonably ask why we need the same degree of regulation at all? Has the cost of providing credit to the economy been increased? Will the reforms restrict competition and innovation? Have capital markets been rendered dysfunctional? It is possible that there are degrees to which all these questions might have positive answers. But against that, the consequences of the Great Financial Crisis were so large, so negative for millions of people around the globe in terms of unemployment and reduced incomes, that more regulation, in every direction has been a necessary response. Over time one may learn where the reforms can be eased, where they  12  Bank of England/FCA/HMT, June 2015. “Fair and Effective Markets Review”. BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  need to be tightened, or whether other policies need to be introduced to offset any unwanted side effects. Let me re-state what has been said before – the authorities generally, including regulators, do not want the stability of the graveyard. We want successful, profitable, privately owned firms operating in the best interests of the global economy to support sustainable growth. The regulation of the financial services sector has to be aligned with that. But just as we don’t want growth generated by firms causing excess pollution, nor do we want it sustained by financial firms that take excessive risks with other people’s money.

This has weighed heavily on resident population growth as seen from the relatively close correlation with the TFR. There appears to be three distinct phases in the last 30 years: In the 1990s, both the TFR and resident population growth declined in tandem. In the 2000s, the TFR continued to decline but resident population growth recovered. This reflected net positive immigration as the number of new citizens and Permanent Residents grew. In this decade, the TFR appears to have stabilised at around 1.2–1.3 while resident population growth fell sharply reflecting the tightening of immigration flows. 2 / 17  BIS central bankers' speeches  The next two slides are a thought experiment. They are not a forecast or prediction but aim to illustrate the implications of having very low resident population growth. First, let us assume that we have zero net immigration starting from this year. The resident working-age population – this is defined as citizens and permanent residents between the ages of 15–64 – will begin to shrink from around 2020. The exact year is not key. What is important to note is that it is not far off. By 2035, the working-age resident population will possibly decline by a cumulative 3.5%. 3 / 17  BIS central bankers' speeches  Second, let us assume zero net increase in foreign workers from now on. The overall labour force will decline gradually from around 2022, driven fundamentally by the shrinking resident labour force. These two assumptions taken together – zero net migration (i.e.
After struggling to reach the targets in the early years, the Central Bank has managed to keep inflation within the targeted range (since 2005 at 4.5% plus or minus two percentage points) for 5 years in a row. In fact, last year, when global inflationary pressures were quite strong (at least until the third quarter), the BCB was one of the few monetary authorities, within the set of those formally targeting inflation, not to miss its target, even though economic activity, until the end of the third quarter, remained quite strong. Thus, from a narrow balance of payments viewpoint, as well as from a macroeconomic stance, the floating BRL has been remarkably successful. BIS Review 8/2009  1  That has not meant that the regime has counted with unqualified support. Time and again criticism of the floating BRL has mounted, be it because the currency is seen as not floating enough, or floating too much, or being too weak, or too strong, or helping some sectors of the economy or regions of the country at the expense of others. More fundamental is the criticism that the exchange rate is too important to be left to the markets. The recent financial crisis and misdemeanors have made this position fashionable again in mature economies. In Brazil, with a long tradition of heavy state intervention in the economy, which was characterized by close linkages between a few privileged segments and the government, this position has always had, and still has, its vocal advocates in all sorts of media.

The first point to acknowledge, which the opponents of the floating BRL often seem to forget, is that regardless of the exchange rate regime, the real effective exchange rate always floats. Or, putting another way, the relative price of tradeables to nontradeables changes continually. Thus, the relative prices that are relevant for production and consumption decisions for exporters, importers, households and enterprises always adjust, whether the nominal exchange rate is fixed by a group of, hopefully enlightened, civil servants, or set by the markets. But when the exchange rate is allowed to float, relative price adjustment tends to be faster, and the impact of external shocks on quantities, that is to say on income and employment, tends to be smaller than when the nominal exchange rate is fixed. The second point to highlight is that even controlling the nominal exchange rate can be a challenge, and comes at the cost of either the ability to pursue an independent monetary policy or of free capital flows. Countries cannot elude this constraint: nominal exchange rate management requires either severing linkages between the home economy and international capital markets, or shadowing some other country’s monetary policy. In sum, adopting a workable nominal exchange rate target (be it explicit or hidden, for the level or the path) imposes macroeconomic choices that fewer and fewer countries have been willing to make. It is somewhat heroic to assume that the State would be extremely competent at setting the nominal exchange rate.
This pace of growth would likely be sufficient to continue to absorb any remaining slack in the labor market and to support inflation moving back to our 2 percent objective. However, any forecast is uncertain and growth could end up higher or lower. Let me turn to an assessment of the balance of risks around my growth outlook. I believe that a sizable pickup  1  Tobias Adrian, Matthew Higgins, Jonathan McCarthy, Paolo Pesenti, Robert Rich, Giorgio Topa, Joseph Tracy and Peter Van Tassel assisted in preparing these remarks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  in the rate of growth of economic activity relative to that in my forecast seems unlikely for a number of reasons. Although consumer spending strengthened substantially in the second quarter, that stronger pace is unlikely to be sustained going forward. That is because the fundamentals supporting consumption have softened somewhat. Real income growth moderated in the second quarter as the pace of job gains slowed and the inflation rate rose, boosted by somewhat higher energy prices. Even with the surprisingly large addition of 287,000 payroll jobs in June, the pace of improvement in the U.S. labor market appears to have slowed somewhat. For example, over the past three months, payroll gains have averaged about 150,000 per month, as compared to an average of more than 200,000 per month over the course of 2015 and the first quarter of this year.

20 Current UK household debt is twice the 2002 level in aggregate but debt servicing cost is half so the debt  service ratio is unchanged 21 For example, micro data studies from the UK, US, Denmark and Norway have all found statistically significant correlations between higher levels of household debt and the size of consumption cuts in a shock. For example Andersen et al (2016), Kovacs et al (2018), Dynan and Edelberg (2013) and Fagereng and Halvorsen (2016). 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  10  One might expect to see similar effects in the corporate sector. And indeed, Bank staff estimate that the share of corporate debt owed by highly leveraged companies has now pretty much grown back to pre-crisis levels. 22  This is a risk because we know that more leveraged firms cut back on investment and employment by more in a downturn.23 All else equal therefore – and crucially, absent policy – a low for long world is likely to be one with a less resilient and riskier financial system and a more leveraged real economy that, as a consequence, is more vulnerable to macro-economic shocks. Financial stability challenges of low for long: the risk of more severe downturns And this brings me to the third challenge of low for longer for financial stability – the risk that in such an environment, economic downturns will on average be more severe.
During this period, a new credit of Lek  BIS Review 8/2004  1  70.6 billion (USD 660 million) was extended to the economy, or 45 percent more than the same period in the previous year. Based on the developments noticed during the first ten months, on the current developments of the banking system liquidity, etc., it could be summarized that monetary developments of 2003 will be a greater contribution to the consolidation of the overall macroeconomic equilibrium of the country. In order to have a clearer view of the expected economic situation by end of 2003, following is given a table showing the general indicators of the country’s economic development, including here the monetary ones as well.

The low-income population in the Asia-Pacific accounts for about 70% of the global low income population. The need for protection from illnesses, natural disasters and other perils is more acute for this vulnerable segment. Although Asia now accounts for most of the global microinsurance market, covering between 350 to 400 million people the overall participation rate is still low due to liquidity constraints in this segment of households, low financial literacy and business models that are not inclined towards such low-income segments. Innovative solutions and continued efforts to improve financial education will be needed to achieve greater inroads in this area. The trends that are shaping the socio-economic landscape in East Asia suggest continued positive growth prospects for the insurance industry. This is despite a more modest outlook for the global economy. Indeed, the insurance industry will assume a much larger role in providing the essential financial underpinnings for economic activity and social development in Asia by addressing the wide range of risks that businesses and individuals face in this new and more challenging environment. While historical experience in the development of modern insurance presents a path for the future growth of the insurance industry in East Asia, there are also other important ingredients for sustainable growth going forward. The ability of insurers to internalize the new realities of the business and to execute strategies that are aligned with these realities will provide the strongest assurance for growth with stability as the industry looks ahead to the future.
17 The exact amount that can be provided will depend on a range of factors, including the type and amount of collateral, the currency composition of the lending and the concentration to individual counterparties. 18 See https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/letter/2016/governor-apf-letter-040816.pdf. 10  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  10  desire to have sufficient scope to cut Bank Rate materially – relative to the effective lower bound on Bank Rate of 0.5% at that time – if necessary to respond to adverse shocks. 19  Although the principles guiding the MPC’s choice of threshold still hold, with the lower bound on Bank Rate now permanently close to 0%, the MPC views that the level from which Bank Rate can be cut materially is now around 1.5%. Reflecting this, the MPC now intends not to reduce the stock of purchased assets until Bank Rate reaches around 1.5%. Any reductions in the stock of purchased assets will be conducted over a number of years at a gradual and predictable pace. The MPC continues to view sales and reinvestment decisions as equivalent from a monetary policy perspective. While any reduction will be solely a decision for the MPC based on meeting its objectives, the Bank will liaise with the Debt Management Office ahead of implementing any change in its asset purchase programme. As asset purchases unwind, decisions on Bank Rate will take into account any impact of changes in the stock of purchased assets on overall monetary conditions in order to achieve the inflation target.

In addition to these objections to the simple Taylor rule it can be noted that there is a lot of evidence to the effect that instead of being stable, the equilibrium interest rate in the equation varies with the potential growth rate. This is a view that can be traced back to the Swedish political economist Kurt Wicksell’s notion of a “natural interest rate”. A monetary policy based on forecasts I should now like to present some reflections on the forecast-based monetary policy we undertake at the Riksbank. First of all, an inflation targeting policy based on forecasts has several basic characteristics in common with the other alternatives I have been discussing. (This, however, does not apply to the alternative of basing policy solely on CPI outcomes.) One common denominator is the fundamental philosophy and aim of safeguarding the value of money. Monetary policy strives for price stability as a way of providing a nominal anchor for the economy. Another similarity is the medium-term perspective rather than short-term activism. This in turn calls for a forward-looking perspective when the instrumental rate is set. A further resemblance is that in the Riksbank’s strategy, monetary policy reacts systematically, though neither automatically nor mechanically; this helps households and firms to base their expectations of inflation on a monetary policy that is predictable. We have followed our rule of action relatively closely, as is evident from Diagram 1. 4  BIS Review 24/2002  1.
If you look it up in the Report you will see that according to our estimate only a very small amount of excess supply – ¼% of GDP – remained in the economy. But we couldn’t be certain of this. Even in the most benign interpretation the economy had gone through a temporary soft patch. The majority of indicators were pointing in one direction. And it felt like there was at least a risk that, perhaps reflecting the unusual position of the UK, something more material was going on – perhaps one of the risks I highlighted earlier was crystallising. That was why I, along with the majority of the Committee, decided to vote again to leave Bank Rate unchanged. How do I see the economy evolving from here? It is still early days. We are still only two thirds of the way through Q2, less far through the Q2 data cycle, and only a month has passed since our last MPC meeting. Even so, the data we have had so far suggests our interpretation of the slowdown in Q1 as temporary looks to be being borne out. Consumer confidence and consumer credit both picked up in the latest data, as did retail sales and several business surveys. That included the latest services PMI output balance, representing 80% of the economy. So far at least our May judgement looks on track. Looking ahead, my central expectation for the economy is in line with the MPC’s best collective judgement as expressed in our inflation report forecasts.

13  Note that it may sometimes instead be a case of refraining from cutting the rate where this might otherwise have been justified. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  developments, but it is rather the communication in itself that has the dampening effect. In this case, the impact on the rest of the economy need not be so great either. The fact that communication on monetary policy can play an important role in this context is emphasised by, for instance, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada and soon to be Governor of the Bank of England: “[P]rivate agents may choose to accumulate less debt if they understand that a broad-based build-up of debt is likely to cause the central bank to raise interest rates.”14 Monetary policy is expansionary It should be fairly clear that it is precisely this type of "signalling strategy" that the Riksbank has used. Monetary policy since the crisis has not entailed using sky-high interest rates to stop an upswing in lending and housing prices, at any cost. What we have tried to do is to find a suitable balance to be able to support the recovery, without “pressing too hard on the accelerator”, thereby contributing at least at the margin to a calmer development in house prices and lending to households. It can hardly be claimed that the policy conducted by the Riksbank during the recovery from the crisis has been tight or that the current policy rate level does not contribute to boosting economic activity.
In the movie, several millions of refugees fled their villages and towns to go to Xi’an（西安）, where they hoped they could find food and help, but most of them did not make it and perished during the long journey. In desperation, many parents sold their children for a tiny sum of money or just a bowl of rice in order to survive a few more days. The movie presented graphically a shocking story, a tragedy of the very harsh reality and unspeakable human sufferings endured by our parents’ generation not that long ago. 3. Well, this very depressing and horrible scene was only a movie. We now live in a comfortable world in which food is abundant and there is no shortage of daily necessities. Most of us take good lives for granted. The ugly and unpleasant scenes of parents selling their children as depicted in the movie “1942” were something of the past and do not seem to have any relevance in modern times. Is it so? 4. For those of us who are parents, we are absolutely convinced and determined that we will do our utmost to protect our children. We will give them nothing but the best that we can afford so that they have a good life and a bright future. All of us here would find it unthinkable why any parents would want to give away or mortgage their children. So, why should I choose this subject for tonight’s theme?

There were, I think, times when the pessimists among us wondered whether there would be the resources, and the will, for this initiative to get off the ground. But, thanks to the enormous effort and co-operation among those involved, implementation, over the course of the next few years, appears now to be very much a certainty. Over the past few months, regulators around the world, including those in this region, have been setting out the approaches they intend to adopt in implementing Basel II, and banks have been preparing themselves energetically for implementation. Approaches vary from one jurisdiction to another: one of the key features of Basel II is its flexibility. In Hong Kong, our aim is to switch over to Basel II at the start of 2007, in line with the approach being adopted in other major international financial centres, and of the Basel Committee members themselves. We see value in being among the first in adopting Basel II, not only because of the intrinsic merits of the New Accord, but also because this city has one of the highest concentrations of banking institutions in the world, with a strong presence of international banking groups. Many people all over the world have been involved in Basel II. But there is no-one more qualified to speak on the subject than our guest today. Governor Caruana is the current Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Strategic alliances with third parties, including those within and outside Malaysia, provides efficient opportunities to capitalize on the strengths of each partner and in the process promote development, the transfer of skills and improvement of best practices and pave the way for successful cross-border ventures. The second relates to the area of international standard setting. With the gaining momentum of international standards in such important and pervasive areas such as capital adequacy standards, financial reporting and cross-border activities, it is important for financial institutions to participate more constructively in the standard setting process together with the regulatory community in order for such developments to take into account domestic circumstances and risks. The third is in the area of ongoing negotiations on trade agreements. Banking institutions need to follow these developments and negotiations closely to consider implications it would have to their organisations and future business strategies. The last area of influence relates to communication strategies. With increasing market discipline, effective communications has become more critical. Institutions will need to be more active in responding to consumer and business expectations and the building of long term customer relationships in order to be able to implement longer term business strategies. This is a significant challenge which demands deliberate, planned and well-designed communication strategies and resources dedicated for this effort. Conclusion Ladies and gentlemen,  BIS Review 83/2007  5  This decade has demonstrated the capacity of the banking sector to reinvent and transform.

Going forward, the changes in the global economy and international financial landscape will continue to accelerate beyond expectations. The ability of financial institutions to remain relevant in the future will depend on the actions that are taken now in the current environment. The leadership of the industry will be instrumental in charting the future growth path and cultivating a performance culture that will steer financial institutions towards continued success. There therefore needs to be an awareness of the emerging cyclical and structural forces that will impact the economy as well as their linkages with the banking industry , to anticipate new developments and opportunities, and most importantly, to be equipped to respond to the new opportunities and to remain competitive and relevant. The challenge for banking institutions is in being able to balance between demands of the immediate term with a longer term outlook and how this would feed into the organisation's continuous renewal and transformation process. On that note, I wish you a successful Seminar. 6  BIS Review 83/2007