samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
In addition, there are increased concerns about financial and foreign exchange market stability in the event of a sudden reversal of capital inflows to the regional banking system. Recently dramatic changes are occurring in the global economic environment, including continuing monetary policy normalization by the U.S. Federal Reserve. These changes can potentially impact small, open economies and must be understood. Research conducted by the central Bank of Italy (BdI) is another example of research work, focused on the region, providing an interesting regional perspective for euro area policymakers regarding their policy decisions and actions. This research has formally provided researched-based evidence on the implications of their policy making on the large group of countries in the periphery of the euro area. These are just a few examples of interesting, useful and publishable research. This year we have a couple of projects that involve cooperation and joint works between Bank of Albania researchers and those from other central banks or academia. This is another way to increase the potential for publication and I would encourage you to increase the amount and scope of cooperation in research with foreign researchers. To conclude, I would like to reemphasize that we must enhance the overall efficiency of the transmission mechanism, and the resilience of the banking and financial systems so that potential and unexpected shocks do not advance to economic or systemic risk.

Philipp Hildebrand: Financial market turbulence and the economic outlook Summary of a speech by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Handels- und Industrieverein des Kantons Bern, BurgdorfEmmental section, Burgdorf, 25 October 2007. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  It is very difficult to assess how the shifts in the credit markets triggered by the US sub-prime mortgage market will impact on the real economy. As a result, the uncertainties with regard to the economic outlook have increased considerably. The evaluation of structured credit products, some of them very complex, is based on models. Because of the difficulties this evaluation poses, the market for such products gradually disappeared. The uncertainty as to the degree of exposure of individual banks in the structured credit market led to illiquidity in the unsecured interbank market. Central banks around the world have reacted to this unusual situation with injections of liquidity. An adequate supply of liquidity to the economy is essential for our economic system to function. A favourable aspect of the situation was the fact that the credit market turbulence occurred at a time when the global economy and the Swiss economy were both in good shape. BIS Review 121/2007  1
The launch of these markets, geared to luring medium-sized firms, is also contributing to the development of the capital markets. In particular, in Spain we have witnessed the development of the alternative fixed-income market MARF. That said, their size is still small in most European countries. In the future, this trend towards the greater development of capital markets might continue if progress is made on the European project to create a Capital Markets Union, as I shall later discuss. A further factor pointing in this same direction is the potential increase in long-term saving associated with population ageing. The reason is that, for this investment horizon, capital markets may be a comparatively more attractive option than in the case of short-term saving. Moreover, technological progress might prompt an increase in the activity of new non-bank competitors with innovative technologies. So far, market penetration by this type of player in the credit-supply business is limited in most European countries. Initiatives like the regulatory sandbox currently being designed in Spain, have the objective of promoting the emergence of these type of players. These controlled test environments aim to provide, with all due security measures for participants and the system as a whole, a nimble framework that provides for the viability testing of the new business models based on new technologies. They will also enable the supervisory community to gain knowledge on how new business models and technologies function and the new risks associated with them.

Switzerland: 2012 Article IV Consultation – Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion. Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland. IMF Country Report No. 12/106. May 2012. Jordan, Thomas. 2011. “Does the Swiss National Bank need equity?” SNB. Speech to the Statistisch-Volkswirtschaftliche Gesellschaft. Basel. 28 September 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  BIS central bankers’ speeches  7
The outlook for the Norwegian economy Last year, Norges Bank reported that inflation had declined to a low level, but we projected a gradual increase. We highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the inflation projection and indicated that inflation might remain low. Subsequently, inflation fell to an even lower level. Structural adjustments in goods and service markets may imply low inflation also for a period ahead. Growth is high in the Norwegian economy. Growth in the mainland economy primarily reflects higher activity in retail trade, the construction industry and the service sector. Imports are expanding at a brisk pace. There are prospects of continued strong growth in petroleum investment in 2005. Employment is rising, albeit still at a moderate pace. Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags. There is always uncertainty surrounding inflation developments. A very high oil price may also have an impact on the krone exchange rate. Historical deviations between projected and actual developments in the CPI-ATE provide an illustration of the uncertainty surrounding the inflation projections. The fall in the value of the krone through 2003, low interest rates and solid growth in the real economy will gradually push up inflation. Price developments in recent months have, nevertheless, increased the risk that inflation will remain low for a longer period. Thank you for allowing me to make the introductory statement at this hearing. BIS Review 53/2004  5

In addition, INCEIF's flagship programme, the Chartered Islamic Finance Professional (CIFP) offers the world's first professional certification programme in Islamic finance aims to nurture skilled talent pool for Islamic finance. Let me conclude my remarks. The global Islamic finance industry has evolved from a faithbased to a business driven industry for all communities. With total global Islamic financial assets amounting to only 40% of the largest conventional bank and with only 300 players compared to 23,000 conventional players globally, competitive pressure moving forward are likely to be intense. But with the underlying strength inherent in Islamic finance and its potential role in bringing together different parts of the world with surplus funds in search of investment opportunities to those with financing requirements accords tremendous opportunities to be drawn from Islamic finance. The combined efforts and collaborative  4  BIS Review 6/2008  alliances will pave the way for mutually reinforcing developments that will contribute to the overall international finance system and global economic prosperity. BIS Review 6/2008  5
It is also pertinent that teachers obtain quality and professional training to harness and effectively utilise computers. I therefore urge you to consider enhancing computer literacy amongst your staff. In an information age, knowledge and effective use of computers along with sound education will be the cornerstone of a vibrant, modern society. This is why our teachers are absolutely critical to the future of our economy. I have no doubt that supporting our schools in the manner that the Bank of Zambia is doing today will lead to stronger motivation and morale amongst our students and teachers alike. I am certain that we all desire a country where our  BIS Review 14/2010  1  teachers and students are proficient in using computers and extract immense value from them. This should be the vision that we should all aspire. Ladies and Gentlemen, In conclusion, I would like to urge all students present here today take an interest in using computers. Computers will assist you in your studies and make your lessons more effective, easier and enjoyable but they will not automatically make you a genius. The computer will open doors to communication, research and opportunities. Remember that the goal of computer literacy is for the user to become an explorer, and an active seeker of information which I hope you will be, with this donation. Seize what you have been bestowed with today. Guard against vandalism and use the computer facilities to ensure a brighter future for yourselves.

This is important because in future while computer knowledge will perhaps not immediately get you a job, it will ensure that you are one step closer to being employed. Ladies and Gentlemen, I also recognize the efforts of the former Students Association who have been soliciting for donations from various organizations. As former students we all have the responsibility of helping the school that has played a key part to what you are today. Let us continue to support our beloved school. I thank you. BIS Review 14/2010  2
There are thus a number of good reasons that explain why we use cash and why we will continue to do so for some time to come. For this reason alone there is a lower limit below which cash usage cannot fall. Where exactly this limit lies and how quickly we may reach it will largely depend on what other payment services are developed. For payments from private individuals to companies there are a number of competing services such as card payments, mobile payments, Internet transfers and so on. However, for payments between private individuals there are far fewer alternatives. Despite the rapid rate of technological development, no satisfactory replacement for cheques has emerged in this context. What is required to make new payment services successful? There are a number of fundamental characteristics of the payment system that affect the chances of successfully launching new substitutes for cash and other existing payment services. Some of these characteristics raise barriers to innovation and may thus help to protect the already established payment services. If we assume that, in one way or another, new payment services will be based on payment by electronic means between accounts in one or several custodial institutions, then there at least three problems that a payment service must overcome in order to succeed. First, launching a new payment system is in itself costly.

Through these Lecture Series, which have successfully ended today, it has been highlighted that the central bank, like the rest of the economy, adapts to changes in the market environment. In the case of the Bank of Zambia, prior to 1991, the Bank had numerous roles, including the promotion of economic growth through the provision of credit to critical sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, mining, etc, as well as issuance of export guarantees to exporters. As expected, the multiplicity of functions led to conflict of interest. For instance, on one hand, the Bank was expected to control the growth of money supply while, on the other hand, it was required to inject money into the system through the provision of credit to the selected sectors. The introduction of economic reforms by the Government beginning the end of 1991 therefore brought about enormous challenges for the Bank of Zambia. To meet the new challenges, the Bank’s operations needed to be more focused. In this respect, the Bank of Zambia Act was amended in 1996 to reflect the changed nature of the operating environment. By amending the Act, the Bank’s primary role was solely “to formulate and implement monetary and supervisory policies that will ensure the maintenance of price and financial system stability”. This was deliberate, as experience world-over has shown that you can only achieve sustained and high economic growth in an economic environment characterised by low and stable inflation.
Allow me to highlight a few. 3  IMF – International Monetary Fund; FSF – Financial Stability Forum; BCBS – Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; IOSCO - International Organisation of Securities Commissions; IAIS - International Association of Insurance Supervisors. 2  BIS Review 147/2008  First, one of the most significant lessons about the crisis is also the most basic, that is, finance needs to return to its basic function of allocating scarce capital to the most productive uses, with the capital earning an appropriate risk-adjusted return. In this regard, the underlying Shariah precept in Islamic Finance of not using capital for speculation, but to build productive capacity and generate sustainable economic growth, takes on great relevance. By adhering to this basic precept, I am confident that Islamic Finance will assume a more prominent role in the coming years. Second, whatever the forms of intermediation, we must remain focused on the types and nature of risks, and how these risks are distributed among the players. Before this crisis, the main focus was on risks posed by hedge funds. As it turns out, a large part of the risks were sitting in the core banking system, in the form of off-balance sheet items held in SIVs. Mortgage lenders which originated subprime mortgages were outside the regulatory ambit. The main lesson here is that we have to examine risks holistically, across the value chain of activities and across different asset classes and markets, and not be blinkered in pre-judging where risks sit.

Combined with high productivity growth, this has resulted in high corporate earnings and solid growth in employment. At the same time, wage-earners share of corporate value added has been reduced, from around 75 per cent at the end of the 1980s to 70 per cent at the end of the 1990s, and now  BIS Review 121/2007  1  stands at below 65 per cent. Solid productivity growth and high prices for export goods and deliveries to the petroleum sector have contributed to the reduction in the wage share over the past few years. The ample supply of labour has probably had a dampening effect on wage growth. Increased globalisation may have provided greater opportunities for Norwegian enterprises to relocate production to other countries if labour costs become too high. This probably places some restraint on wage demands among workers in sectors where enterprises have such opportunities. Historically, a high wage share has tended to be accompanied by low unemployment. Developments in recent years have provided the basis for strong growth in employment while the wage share has fallen. Is it possible to sustain the combination of low unemployment and a low wage share? First, it partly depends on whether the positive supply-side conditions are sustained. There is probably symmetry here. Should the terms of trade deteriorate, productivity growth slacken and foreign workers return to their home country, the wage share will increase, profits fall and unemployment increase. There is now a prospect of slower global growth.
Policymakers tie themselves to the mast of this rule or criterion, sacrificing some of their short-run freedom of action in order to achieve what they hope will be superior outcomes over the long term. In monetary policy, commitment can in theory reduce the risk of future recession and more tightly control medium-horizon inflation expectations at the cost of a somewhat poorer near-term inflation or unemployment performance. Commitments come in lots of different flavors and styles, and forward guidance isn’t necessarily helpful or wise just because it’s Odyssean. Tying yourself to the mast isn’t an especially good idea if your ship is sinking, or if enemy forces are directing fire toward your deck. Committing to a particular path for the funds rate, or to a time schedule for funds-rate liftoff, is not something in which I or many of my colleagues have any interest. Commitments that are contingent on future economic conditions, in contrast, enjoy at least some support on the FOMC. President (Narayana) Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed, for example, has notably proposed that the committee promise to delay liftoff at least until either the unemployment rate reaches 5 1/2 percent or forecasted inflation hits 2 1/4 percent (provided longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and possible risks to financial stability remain well-contained). My own view is that commitments aren’t always credible, especially if they purport to extend far into the future. It’s hard to bind future policymakers, and it’s difficult to anticipate all the various economic circumstances that might arise down the road.

On asset purchases: “If incoming information broadly supports the committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps ...” On the timing of liftoff: “The committee continues to anticipate ... that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends ...” On the post-liftoff path of the funds rate: “The committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the committee views as normal in the longer run.” As a former practitioner, I can tell you that market operators prefer Odyssean guidance to Delphic guidance, and within the Odyssean model, tend to prefer inflexible, calendar-based guidance to guidance that’s either conditional or qualitative. Life in my former incarnation would naturally be much more pleasant if I could dial in the specific dates and levels of interest rate movements. But as a central banker, I am haunted by a comment made by Winston Churchill in 1926, shortly before things began to unravel in the global financial  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  markets.
In particular, the employment growth rate has reached levels unknown since the start of the decade, and this has been duly reflected in the indicators of consumer confidence. Overall, the information available suggests the expansionary phase of euro area output will continue over the coming quarters, though possibly at a somewhat lower rate than in the first half of 2006. In any event, around the turn of the year the economic situation will foreseeably be perturbed by the temporary impact of the rise in the main VAT rate in Germany in early 2007. Against this background, medium-term risks of a growth downswing cannot be ruled out if the slowdown in the US economy becomes more intense. Adding to this uncertainty is the possibility that oil prices will resume the upward course interrupted in August and, over a longer horizon, that there will be a disorderly correction of the macro-financial imbalances between the main world areas. The most recent changes in the growth rate of the harmonised index of consumer prices have been much assisted by the marked decline in oil prices since mid-August and by the stripping out of the base effects from the previous year. These factors have meant that, for the first time since early 2005, inflation has stood below 2%, the ECB target (it stood in fact at 1.6% in October). Beyond the temporary variations in this variable, the index that excludes energy goods prices has also performed  BIS Review 117/2006  1  more favourably throughout the year.

2  BIS central bankers’ speeches    Second, monetary policy is about setting interest rates, but also involves observing and analyzing leverage and liquidity. Monetary aggregates as well as the volume and modalities of maturity transformation reveal very useful information on the transmission mechanism. This is actually the conventional wisdom within the Eurosystem, through the use of the second pillar. Although less acceptable outside the euro area, I conjecture that the lessons of the crisis will trigger some rethinking here and there.   Finally, the debate on whether monetary policy should also aim at financial stability must give more consideration to the awkward interaction between instruments and the diversity of accountability regimes. Both create the potential for additional confusion about the ultimate objectives of each policy. It seems to me that most of the discussions are conducted under the implicit assumption that price stability will be as easy to maintain in the next decade as it was in the past. So, there would not be much to lose in “diverting” some of the power and credibility of monetary policy to seeking financial stability. It is very clear that this assumption is severely tested, perhaps sooner than we thought. It will be important, in this environment, to maintain clarity of purpose and robustness in institutional arrangements in order to limit the risk of weakening the benefits of Central Bank independence, which were so hardly won over the last decades. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
We are expecting employment to fall by around 300,000 persons from the peak in 2008 to a trough in 2011 and that unemployment will continue to rise to around 11 per cent (see Figures 15 and 16)  5  See the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators, 7 August, 2009, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/45/9/43453886.pdf. 6  Economic Tendency Survey, July 2009, National Institute of Economic Research, 30 July 2009. 7  Institute for Supply Management (SILF) and Swedbank, 3 August 2009. 4  BIS Review 98/2009  After the recent monetary policy meeting new information was received from the Labour Force Surveys, which was roughly in line with our assessment. Employment fell by 1.7 per cent in June compared with the same month in the previous year and unemployment increased to 9.8 per cent. This was respectively two-tenths and one-tenth of a percentage point better than we had forecast. 8 Underlying inflation is in line with the inflation target of 2 per cent Inflation has fallen rapidly in recent months and is expected to become negative for a large part of the year. However, CPI inflation is strongly affected by interest rate changes and by changes in energy prices. It is therefore better to study the underlying inflation rate. Underlying inflation measured as the CPIF, where mortgage rates are held constant, is expected to be close to 2 per cent throughout the forecast period (see Figure 17). New inflation figures published after the most recent monetary policy meeting have also been roughly in line with our assessments.

Current account and public finances Per cent of GDP 12  12 Government net lending Current account  8  8  4  4  0  0  -4  -4  -8  -8  -12  -12 90  92  94  96  98  00  Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’ s forecasts. 02  04  06  08  10  12  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  22. Low repo rate over long period of time Per cent, quarterly average 7  7  6  6  90% 75% 50% Repo rate  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2 04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Note. The uncertainty interval is calculated using historical forecasting errors. 18  12  Source: The Riksbank  BIS Review 98/2009  23.