samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The “exchange rate competitiveness” channel, through which monetary policy affects the exchange rate, meaning it changes the price of domestic goods relative to foreign goods. 3. The “financial channel”, through which monetary policy affects domestic financial conditions. When there are strong financial connections between countries, these conditions may change abroad as well. From these transmission channels, let me focus on the “financial channel” for the remainder of my talk. Financial spillovers from US monetary policy to the euro area Measuring international spillovers is not easy, because global shocks lead to economies moving in a synchronised manner for reasons unrelated to monetary policy.1 In line with previous evidence2, recent ECB research identifies large financial spillovers from US monetary policy to global financial conditions, including euro area financial conditions.3 More specifically, over the course of one month, monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve System drives up euro area corporate bond spreads4 just as much as US corporate bond spreads. It also triggers declines in euro area stock markets of a similar magnitude to the declines in US stock markets.5 However, the financial spillovers from ECB monetary policy to US bond spreads, or to foreign equity markets, are found to be less impactful. This asymmetry in the international impact of US 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  monetary policy and euro area monetary policy is rooted in the dominant role of the US dollar in global financial markets.

When you take a closer look you’ll see the new ten has the same new features as the new five: a portrait of Europa – a figure from Greek mythology – in both the hologram and the watermark, as well as the emerald number, which changes colour from green to deep blue when you tilt the note. Introducing a new banknote, especially one used as much as the ten, is a major undertaking. It requires a lot of planning and preparation to gradually replace the two billion or so ten euro notes currently in circulation. I would like to thank all who were involved in this process within the Eurosystem. I would also like to thank the banks, retailers and other cash-handling professionals, who will, in the end, put those new notes in your hands. I know that banknote equipment manufacturers and suppliers are already working hard to ensure that the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  machines are adapted in good time so that the introduction goes smoothly, and I want to thank them as well for the vital part they play. We are announcing the date of issuance and are sharing the required technical information well in advance to give all parties enough time to get ready. The new Europa series ten euro banknote will start circulating on Tuesday 23 September this year. And now it’s time to see the new ten euro banknote. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches
However, it can be said that this period of time is much shorter in case of the expectations channel, which is a part of the transmission mechanism and operates in a very effective manner in our economy. At this point, I would like to emphasize that the Turkish economy has entered a normalization process. As a matter of fact, in comparison with previous periods, the banking sector has a more robust structure and fiscal dominance has decreased considerably. As a result of this structure, any measures to be taken regarding the policy instrument should be evaluated in terms of the impacts of the monetary policy on inflation, rather than in view of the likely effects of these measures’ consequences on the above-mentioned areas. In other words, the increase in short-term interest rates, which are the policy instrument, should be evaluated merely as a necessary reaction of monetary policy for achieving the medium-term inflation targets. When the sub-indicators demonstrating the main trends in inflation are analyzed, it is observed that the targets for 2007 and 2008 seem achievable in light of the medium-term outlook as of the present date, as long as the cautious stance in monetary policy is maintained. Certainly, for the course of inflation to follow a path in line with the forecasts of the Bank, certain conditions need to be satisfied. In other words, there are some risks to the sustainability of the disinflation process in the medium-term.

Exchange rates displayed similar fluctuations and movements in the short term, surpassed their immediate levels, but the main tendency did not change. Due to the nature of the floating exchange rate regime and the exchange rate policy, similar movements may also be observed in the future, as a result of similar or different factors. The similar impacts of internal and external shocks on the exchange rate and interest rates and therefore, on the economy, will be weaker and last for a shorter period of time, on condition that the policies and implementations of the program continue without any compromise, the dynamism and the self-feeding nature of the reform process is kept in mind, the related steps are taken decisively in time and macroeconomic foundations get stronger. It should not be forgotten that the macroeconomic foundations, current policies, structural reforms and long-term expectations have an impact on the long-term movements of the Turkish lira. However, as the exchange rate is a variable that bears importance with respect to our economy and is a component of financial stability, the activity in the exchange rates is monitored closely by the Central Bank. It should be kept in mind that such movements in the exchange rate pose a risk as well as causing uncertainty. It is possible to protect us from the upward and downward fluctuations in exchange rates. The techniques for risk aversion should definitely be used. The İzmir Derivatives Exchange provides an important opportunity in this respect.
Interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the interest rate peak has been reached, and that it will be lowered in the course of summer 2007. An increase in policy rates is expected in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland in the coming year, but the increase is expected to be somewhat smaller than a few months ago. On the whole, the framework conditions for the Norwegian economy are favourable. Strong international growth implies solid growth for the export industry. The rise in export prices is high while the rise in import prices is low. The petroleum sector is generating growth impulses to the broader economy and the interest rate level is low. However, there is little slack in the Norwegian economy. A steadily rising share of enterprises lacks the capacity to accommodate increased demand, largely because of labour shortages. This must be taken into account in the formulation of monetary policy. Monetary policy In 2001, the Government and the Storting (Norwegian parliament) adopted new economic policy guidelines in Norway, partly against the background of the experience of the 1970s and 1980s. In the period 1972 to 1986, we experienced high and variable inflation. Consumer prices rose almost twice as much as in Germany.

As global capacity utilisation increases to a more normal level, demand for Norwegian exports might remain buoyant. A growing number of export enterprises are facing capacity constraints, particularly in the production of metals and refined petroleum products. Export growth in the years ahead will probably occur in industries such as the engineering and shipbuilding industries. Production growth is now high in these sectors, and employment is rising after declining for several years. High growth in the global economy has also pushed up prices for non-oil commodities. Rising commodity prices and buoyant activity in markets that are important for Norway have generated growth impulses to the Norwegian economy. Since May this year, commodity prices have varied  BIS Review 80/2006  3  widely, but on the whole edged up since end-June. International equity markets have stabilised since the turbulence in May, and have edged up since the previous monetary policy meeting. The benchmark index on the Oslo Stock Exchange is now about 15 per cent higher than at the beginning of the year. Interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the rate tightening cycle is nearing an end, and that the policy rate will be lowered in the course of next summer. A rise in key rates is expected over the next year in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland.
Consequently, to this end, the June Inflation Report in 2001 presented an inflation measure that was  1  See Heikensten, L, "The Riksbank's inflation target - clarifications and evaluation", Sveriges Riksbank Quarterly Review 1, 1999. 2  BIS Review 26/2004  adjusted to exclude temporary rises in prices. On that occasion there was no forecast for this adjusted measure. The third and most recent example is when the Riksbank decided last year to highlight UND1X excluding energy as an especially important index for assessing longer-lasting inflationary pressures. Energy prices had risen steeply around the turn of the year 2002/2003. We judged this rise to be temporary and expected energy prices to fall back again. This meant that the inflation rate would come to be affected for a reasonably long period by these temporary fluctuations in energy prices. At the monetary policy meeting in April 2003 the Riksbank judged that inflation towards the end of the forecast period would be somewhat below target if the repo rate were left unchanged. A strict application of our simple rule would have resulted in a repo rate cut, but since temporary fluctuations in energy prices were the chief reason for the inflation forecast being below 2 per cent, the Riksbank decided to leave the repo rate unchanged.

Permit me to return to last year's discussion about energy prices in order to illustrate what I believe could be one of the problems. As I mentioned, the repo rate was not lowered in April 2003 despite the fact that our forecasts pointed to below-target CPI inflation two years ahead. The reason was that the forecast of CPI inflation was depressed by energy price effects that were judged to be transitory and that were expected to subside just beyond the forecast horizon. However, the measure that was considered a better reflection of longer-term cyclical inflation, UND1X excluding energy, was forecast to be in line with the inflation target at the end of the forecast period. One perhaps likely interpretation, and an interpretation that was obviously common, was that the Riksbank had not departed from its policy rule of adjusting the repo rate when inflation deviates from the target, but that the target variable itself had been changed. And since the new supposed target variable was in line with the inflation target there was no reason to change the repo rate. Our intention, however, was rather the reverse, i.e. to highlight UND1X excluding energy to point out that fluctuations in CPI inflation were driven to a great extent by temporary variations in energy prices, also somewhat beyond the normal two-year horizon, and that this was an occasion on which there was reason to depart from the rule.
Nowadays, the Chancellor specifies the inflation target each year, in a letter to the Governor, but decisions about interest rates are taken by a Committee of nine independent experts who have strong incentives to keep inflation close to target. That is not just because a measurable target provides a clear focus for decisions, important as that is. The regime is intentionally highly transparent with a heavy emphasis on accountability to Parliament and the general public as well as the government of the day. Our individual votes are a matter of public record, and we regularly appear in front of the Treasury Committee to explain our decisions. Minutes of MPC meetings are published within a fortnight. And every three months, we publish an Inflation Report, with the MPC s views on the outlook for growth and inflation over the next three years. This is the subject of regular briefings to business audiences around the country as well as a high profile press conference fronted by the Governor. All this gives monetary policy watchers - in financial markets and in the country at large - plenty of information by which to judge how we are doing, as well as to form their own expectations of future inflation and growth. How successful have we been in establishing a credible policy regime? A key test is what people expect about inflation, and in particular how those expectations react to unexpected economic news. If the regime is credible, people should expect inflation to stay close to target.

Bank staff grade data series on a number of quality criteria, and we use this grading to make the best use of the available information. The basic principle is simple: a sensible approach to economic assessment takes a weighted average of all available indicators, where the weight placed on each reflects the quality of that indicator relative to other available data. Generally speaking, in terms of overall accuracy the highest quality data come from the ONS and other national statistical agencies. This is scarcely surprising, since they have a very comprehensive information base. For example, ONS data on manufacturing output are based on surveys of 10,000 of the UK’s 160,000 manufacturers. All firms with more than 150 employees are surveyed, supplemented by stratified random sampling of smaller companies. Some private-sector business organisations - such as the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, the CBI and the British Chambers of Commerce - also publish surveys of manufacturers. But these samples are typically less than one-tenth of the size of those used by the ONS. On top of that, the private-sector surveys ask only whether activity has risen or fallen, rather than recording exactly how much activity has changed. This can be a particular problem when sub-sectors of an industry are experiencing dramatic movements in output compared with the rest of the sector.
Speeches 07 Jun 2022  Opening remarks at the Alliance for Green Commercial Banks Cornerstone Members Memorandum of Understanding Signing Ceremony Eddie Yue, Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Distinguished guests and friends, 1. Good afternoon. It is my great pleasure to join you to celebrate another milestone of the Alliance for Green Commercial Banks. Today we are going to witness the signing of a memorandum of understanding that brings in five Cornerstone Members to the Alliance, welcome the on-boarding of four Global Partners and a Knowledge Partner, and publish the Alliance’s first thought leadership paper. 2. My special thanks to the IFC advisory team and the HKMA market outreach team for their hard work and close collaboration that brings out the biggest common denominator among various stakeholders. I would also like to personally thank the Cornerstone Members and Partners for their strong support and contribution throughout the engagement process. What we have achieved today is the product of collective efforts. 3. We at the HKMA feel privileged to have partnered with the IFC in launching the Asia chapter of the Alliance for Green Commercial Banks. This is an important joint commitment and undertaking to support financial institutions in Asia on their journey to become leading green institutions 4. Indeed Asia has the largest need for climate finance among the geographical regions. It is estimated that 66 trillion USD of climate investment is required for the region in the coming three decades.

Rest assured that the ECB Governing Council is fully committed to rein in inflation, and to ensure that it returns towards 2% by end 2024 or end 2025. II. Paris' momentum as financial centre Amidst this geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and despite the recent turmoil in the United States and in Switzerland, financial stability has been preserved in Europe. EU banks are robust, with substantial capital and liquidity buffers: they are in their overwhelming majority subject to stringent Basel requirements – which makes a big difference with the many mid-sized US banks. We have in the euro area no "Sorgenkind" or "problem child", such as Crédit Suisse; and since 2014 we have had a single and strong supervisor thanks to Banking Union. As President of the French prudential authority (the ACPR), I can in particular attest to how solid and diversified French banks are nowadays. Four of them are categorised as global systemically important banks (G-SIBS), and they act as catalysts for Paris as a financial centre. Indeed, Paris stands out as unique in the network of European financial centres: it is the only one to offer such a wide range of financial activities, from global asset management to insurance and banking, and it has further reinforced its position since Brexit.
Households’ repo-rate expectations and estimated long-run interest rates Per cent 7  7  6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2 Variable mortgage rate, expectations 5 years ahead  1  1  Variable mortgage rate, outcome  0  0 10  11  12  13  Note. The broken lines show an interval for the long-term level of the variable mortgage rate. The interval is calculated as the total of an interval for the long-term repo rate of 3.5–4.5 per cent and an interval for the difference between a three-month mortgage rate and the repo rate of 1.7–2 percentage points. Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13

To ensure that Thailand reaps the benefits of the changing landscape and is in the position to mobilize resources for investment and support economic growth, the Bank of Thailand is set to launch the second phase of our financial sector Master Plan this year to further enhance efficiency, robustness, and competitiveness of the Thai banking system. Our Financial Master Plan Phase II aims to promote financial system efficiency so that financial institutions can perform their functions more efficiently, becoming more competitive, with increased financial access to the public. The plan essentially comprises three pillars. The first pillar is to improve the regulatory environment and to reduce the unnecessary regulatory and legacy costs. The focus in this pillar will be on streamlining regulation, and on promoting measures and incentives to deal with legacy NPA and NPL, without compromising prudential oversight or good risk management. The second pillar is to enhance efficiency by injecting more competition into the financial system. The focus will be on financial liberalization, increasing competition from the current and new players, and promoting greater financial access. The latter will give importance to expanding the retail banking businesses and promoting new microfinance business models and players. And the third pillar is to substantially improve the economy’s financial infrastructure in the areas of risk management, credit information system, legal reform, information technology, and upgrading the quality of human resource. Such infrastructure is crucial for banks so that they can attain greater efficiency and more effective risk management at a lower cost.
There is reason to believe that this time is different: that technology will indeed transform financial services in a way that has not happened before. It has much to do with the concept of mobility. First, mobility of technology. •  Mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets, have become common-place. •  People do not just connect and surf from their home computers anymore – they also do so from their mobile devices, while on the go. This has profound implications for how financial services are offered and consumed. Second, mobility of ideas. •  Today, online platforms provide a variety of social networking and peer-to-peer services. And people are increasingly comfortable using these services. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  •  These services have compressed time and space: interaction is real-time and information exchange transcends physical boundaries. •  They allow information, knowledge and ideas to be shared widely across communities and geographies. Third, mobility of payments. •  In the past, it used to take several days and cost quite a bit to pay someone in another country or currency. •  Today, online payment services have made it possible for people and businesses to transfer funds safely at very low cost. •  This has not only allowed e-commerce to flourish, but also enabled faster and more efficient cross-border financial services, like lending and borrowing. We are looking at a financial services industry that will be increasingly driven and powered by technology.

•  Honduras is developing a land title registry system based on distributed ledgers  •  Other potential applications talked about include registry of intellectual property rights, supply chain management, electronic voting systems, medical records, etc. Fourth, cloud computing. Cloud computing is an innovative service and delivery model that enables on-demand access to a shared pool of computing resources. It provides economies of scale, potential cost-savings, as well as the flexibility to scale up or down computing resources as requirements change. There is a view among some quarters that “MAS does not like the cloud”. This is an urban myth, not true. •  Well, MAS did have concerns about cloud computing previously. •  This was because cloud services were at the time not sufficiently secure to safeguard the sensitive information that FIs held. •  But cloud technology has evolved considerably and there are now solutions available to address these concerns. •  –  For example, FIs can now implement strong authentication and data encryption to protect their data in the cloud. –  MAS has been in dialogue with both FIs and cloud service providers  –  Providers have now become more aware of our security considerations while we have gained a deeper understanding of the safeguards they have put in place. I am pleased to say that several FIs in Singapore have successfully rolled out cloud solutions in the past two years. Fifth, big data. The world is exploding with information.