samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
1  6  Svensk Basindustri , Ds 2001:63 (Basic industries in Sweden, Ds 2001:63)  BIS Review 56/2003  Figure 2. Capital stock per employee  M a n u fa c tu rin g  300  300  P a p e r a n d p u lp M e ta l w o rk s a n d m e ta l p ro d u c t in d u s try  250  250  1993  1991  1989  1987  1985  1983  0 1981  0 1979  50  1977  50  1975  100  1973  100  1971  150  1969  150  1967  200  1965  200  1963  SEK million  M in in g  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  So basic industries in Sweden have undergone the necessary adjustment to a modern structure and have subsequently performed very well in relation to international competitors. The contrast is striking compared with the rusting steel-industry and the problem-ridden forestry industry in the United States where attempts have been made to circumvent the necessary adjustment by way of import tariffs. While Swedish industry as a whole lost just under 20 per cent of its world market shares in relation to other OECD countries between 1970 and 1990, basic industries recovered towards the end of the 1980s.

As we know, demand and growth have been high there for many years without inflation accelerating. Demand has been stimulated by high share prices and the private sector’s financial balance has decreased markedly. The strong credit expansion that preceded the bank crises in Sweden at the beginning of the 1990s took place at the same time as a strong increase in private consumption and investments, which led to an increasing deficit in the balance of trade, considerable overheating and high inflation in the Swedish economy. It is reasonable to assume that a large expansion in credit would create inflationary pressure now as well that would motivate restrictions in monetary policy. In this way, the credit expansion should be dampened and the risk for problems in the bank system reduced. On the other hand, it cannot be excluded that situations will arise with strong credit expansion, for instance based on increasing asset prices without an increase in inflation being anticipated. Strong international competition combined with low, stable inflation expectations could possibly mean that inflation would not accelerate despite increased use of resources. It is also possible to conceive of situations with a credit expansion driven by high turnover on the asset markets. It is thus far from self-evident that a monetary policy based on stable prices would automatically be a guarantee against financial crises. These are questions to which there are no certain answers although they are discussed and investigated internationally as well as in Sweden.
The Swedish economy’s future path  Speech by Mr Urban Bäckström, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors and President of the Bank for International Settlements, to the Association of Swedish Chambers of Commerce & Industry, Stockholm, on 8 November 2000. *  *  *  First of all, a word of thanks for the invitation to discuss the economic situation in Sweden with you. As I see it, there are a number of dimensions to our economy’s favourable development at present. Today I will be considering some of them, as well as the challenges facing the Riksbank. Globalisation has created a new economic environment Conditions in general for the Swedish economy, and for the environment in which Swedish companies operate, have changed in major respects. I am referring, of course, to the globalisation that has swept over the world in recent decades, leading to more international trade, increased competitive pressure and growing cross-border capital flows. Today people can travel and work all over the world. With the removal of barriers, countries have become increasingly interdependent. These developments have benefited the international economy and raised living standards for many people throughout the world. In the course of two decades, the global level of per capita purchasing power has more than doubled. The improvement has occurred in developing countries as well as in the industrialised world.

Source: Average values by estimates of Chinn (1998), Goldstein (1998), Tornell (1998) and Berg and Pattillo (1998). BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  Chart 15 Current account balances in East Asia and the euro area East Asia (1996) – Euro area (1999)  Note: % of GDP. Source: Haver Analytics. Chart 16 Fiscal costs of recapitalisation as % of GDP  Note: high scenario. Source: IMF (1999). 16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 17 Argentina public sector debt as % of GDP  Share of foreign currency denominated debt in 2001: 97.59% Source: Haver Analytics. Chart 18 Exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD for selected emerging Asia countries  Note: 02/01/1997=100. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors. BIS central bankers’ speeches  17
In their opinion, the risk of rising inflation on account of a weak exchange rate was balanced by the risk of economic activity becoming more subdued. The other members, of whom I was one, concluded, however, that when everything was taken into account, the spectrum of inflation risks had shifted slightly upwards. The increase was a precautionary measure. It was also considered important to send a clear signal that the inflation target is taken very seriously. It was underscored that the decision did not imply anything about the repo rate’s future path. That would be considered as usual at the Riksbank’s regular monetary policy meetings in the light of the overall picture of inflation prospects. In view of some comments which suggest that the Riksbank’s action has been wrongly interpreted, I want to emphasise in particular that the interest rate increase in July did not have the aim of strengthening the krona. As I have indicated, an appreciation would be a good thing in itself but the interest rate increase was actually motivated by a need to counter the risks of inflation that were considered to stem from a weaker currency. Let there be no misunderstandings about that. During the summer the krona has become somewhat stronger, which is welcome. A major factor here has been the weakening of the dollar. A continued appreciation of our currency would also be welcome. In relation to the Swedish economy’s sound fundamentals, the krona is still weak.

Now let me come to the risks that a generalised move towards universal banking could entail, and the ways and means of containing them. The main risk, of course, is the emergence of conflicts of interest. One such potential conflict of interest may arise within any bank, between the bank’s own risk-taking activity and risk-taking for its customers. The classic example of this is the potential conflict of interest between credit-granting and securities underwriting, but this is only one example. The traditional way of avoiding the misuse of such conflict-creating situations is (a) to devise an organisational structure with clearly distinguishable lines of responsibility, (b) to avoid flows of “inside” information between the various activities, (c) to attribute to each activity costs, income and profits, and (d) to entrust external auditors with the surveillance of the systems put in place. The end-result will, of course, never be entirely safe. Moreover, the building of “Chinese walls” inside a multi-polar banking organisation may weaken, or even destroy, the synergy between those poles, i.e. it may undermine the rationale of a multi-polar organisation. I would not want, however, to overstate the internal conflict of interest argument. In the long run, the kind of conflict to which I have referred is unlikely to be very strong. In a longer-term perspective, no bank can afford to favour its own risk-taking activity at the expense of its customers - especially if auditing makes it certain that any misuse of the bank’s powers would come to light. 3.
In this context it is important to note that these opportunities are now also available to the other nine new Member States, so that the benefits of membership cannot be taken for granted. On a macro level, success in this endeavour will depend on the overall competitiveness of the economy; and, on a micro level, on the efficiency with which the country’s resources are utilised and on the ability of the business community to identify profitable opportunities and exploit them in the new operating environment. It is to these issues that I next turn my attention. Policy orientations for growth There are no easy or short-cut solutions to promote economic growth in Malta. Measures aimed at stimulating demand, through fiscal or monetary expansion, can only be effective in the short term. And in any case, their impact is limited. This is because they do not help to expand the economy’s supply capabilities, which is a prerequisite for sustained growth. In the current situation characterised by high fiscal and external deficits, moreover, the stimulation of aggregate demand would do more harm than good to the country’s economic prospects. Living standards can only be raised on a sustained basis if we succeed in adding value to imported inputs and by providing services in a manner that is cost-effective in relation to our competitors. With regard to growth-oriented policies, inspiration can be obtained from a number of EU programmes, including the Lisbon Agenda for Competitiveness and the Stability and Growth Pact.

Although most Member States have fallen behind in meeting the targets of the Lisbon Agenda, Malta must make even more pronounced efforts to achieve them, particularly in the areas of human resource development and innovation. The National Action Plan for Employment is a step in the right direction, but it can only produce the desired results if all social partners take ownership of it. With regard to macroeconomic stabilisation, the successful achievement of the Convergence Programme objectives would restore the use of fiscal policy as an instrument of economic management and lead to a better allocation of resources in the economy. It would also contribute to a smooth transition through ERM II and towards the adoption of the euro. As a small and highly open economy, Malta stands to benefit significantly from the introduction of the single currency, mainly through the elimination of exchange rate risk and uncertainty and lower interest rates and transaction costs. On the microeconomic level there are a number of issues which need to be tackled to improve the efficient allocation and use of resources and to raise productivity. Unlike macroeconomic policies, which tend to yield results only in the medium-term, efficiency improvements at the micro level are likely to produce more immediate benefits in terms of new economic activity and job creation. The truth is that sustained improvements in the country’s economic fundamentals cannot be attained without enhanced efficiency and productivity in both the public and private sectors. The achievement of such improvements requires efforts on a number of fronts.
So it was that, once the problems posed by the establishment of a banknote monopoly had been solved, the youthful SNB was quickly confronted, in 1914, with the problem of financing the military expenditure caused by the First World War and, after the end of hostilities, the difficulties related to normalisation. The social disruption of 1918 and the high level of inflation at the end of the war were bitterly felt and attributed to a failure of monetary management. This setback had a lasting effect on morale at the SNB and accounts to a considerable extent for the orthodoxy of the policies adopted in the decades that followed. This accounts for the determination with which the SNB worked to restore the rules of the gold standard once peace had returned. The pre-war gold parity was re-established in 1924. However, after a few good years, the economic situation again deteriorated, culminating eventually in the crisis of the 1930s. The devaluation of sterling in 1931, followed by that of the dollar in 1933, were the first episodes in the eventual collapse of the gold standard. In 1936, following the devaluation of the French franc, the Swiss federal authorities were forced, in their turn, to reduce the parity of the Swiss franc. A few years later, the challenge of administering a war economy again arose. The story of the Second World War, with its doubts, agonies and errors of judgement has been extensively analysed by historians over the past few years.

Since the start of the crisis, output per hour worked has fallen by around 5%, leaving it more than 15% below where it would have been if it had simply continued growing at its pre-crisis trend rate. As discussed in past Inflation Reports, as well as numerous speeches by MPC members, there are a variety of explanations for this weak productivity performance. These include: specific factors, such as the decline in North Sea oil production and an exaggeration of productivity growth in the financial sector before the crisis; the hoarding of overhead and skilled labour through the downturn; unusually low rates of investment on the back of heightened uncertainty about the outlook; the adoption of more labour-intensive production techniques, encouraged by the high degree of wage moderation; thick-market externalities, which make it easier to find and transact business when demand is strong; and a misallocation of credit as banks repair their balance sheets, with heightened forbearance shown on existing loans to low productivity firms, coupled with caution as regards lending to risky businesses that offer the prospect of higher productivity. Some of these mechanisms depressing productivity can be expected to unwind naturally as demand recovers. But others might take longer and require the restoration of the banking system to full health. And some of the lost productivity growth may prove to be permanent, for instance because of the foregone opportunities for learning by doing.
On the other hand, some evidence appears to suggest that digitalisation in the retail trade leads to faster pass-through – that is to say, it increases the responsiveness of prices to shocks affecting the economy, such as the strong appreciation of a nation’s currency. Studies show that the growth of online trade in recent years may have helped to almost double the speed of price adjustments in the US retail industry. 4 Switzerland too has seen a trend towards faster price adjustments over the last few years. 5 Thus, shocks such as strong appreciation or depreciation of the Swiss franc could feed through to inflation more rapidly in the future. The SNB is therefore analysing the repercussions of digitalisation in depth, in order to understand the impact on inflation as thoroughly as possible and ensure that it is able to take action where necessary. 1 For a discussion about the causes and implications of low inflation, cf. Constâncio, Vítor (2017) ‘Understanding and overcoming low inflation’; remarks at conference on Understanding inflation: lessons from the past, lessons for the future? Frankfurt am Main, 21–22 September. 2 BAK Economics AG and Swiss Association of Distance Selling. 3 This term describes the impact of booming online trade on the traditional retail trade as well as on economic growth and inflation. 4 The costs to companies of price changes (‘menu costs’) are generally lower for online traders as they only have to modify their prices online; traditional traders on the other hand have to produce new labels, brochures, etc. Cf.

A rational domestic demand and import policies will be required (with a 5.3% rise in imports, given the oil price growth), in order to keep the current account deficit at about 6.5% of GDP (EUR 3 billion), the same as in the current year. Of course, this implies a continuation of heavy dependence on foreign sources of financing in 2010. (2)  Given stagnation in direct and portfolio investments (EUR 2.1 billion in 2009 vs. EUR 2.3 billion in 2010), this would mean that: −  the current account deficit will have to be financed by foreign borrowing;  −  the external debt-to-GDP ratio will increase from 83% last year and about 93% in 2009, to about 100%, which is feasible, but will certainly not improve the country’s credit rating, and the question is to what extent the global downward trend in interest rates can carry over to this country. This is all too important, as we know that in 2010:  (3)  −  total debt repayments (EUR 8.3 billion in principal and EUR 1.4 billion in interest) will amount to EUR 9.6 billion (EUR 10.8 billion in 2009); and  −  total utilisation of foreign sources of financing will stand at EUR 12.6 billion (13.5 billion in 2009). The anticipated fiscal deficit reduction, in terms of consolidated general government (including HAC), from HRK 15 billion to HRK 12.1 billion, i.e.
Muhammad bin Ibrahim: Reflection on professionalism, Hippocratic oath and the banking industry Remarks by Mr Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the 20th AICB Chartered Banker's Graduation and Awards Ceremony, Kuala Lumpur, 13 May 2017. * * * Thank you for the opportunity to speak at the 20th AICB Chartered Banker’s Graduation and Awards Ceremony. My congratulations to the 1,062 graduates who have been certified across 15 qualifications. Today, you join the ranks of the over 18,600 banking professionals in the nation. Your graduation is not only an important step in your own careers, but also contributes to our shared aspirations of elevating the banking profession towards greater heights. When we reflect about professionalism, the medical profession often comes to mind for its dedication, devotion, care and interest for society. Over 2,000 years ago, the Hippocratic Oath was first introduced to the world. Today, most medical school students profess some form of the oath upon graduation. While written in antiquity, its principles are held sacred by doctors to this day. Its words have evolved with history. But its message remains the same: treat the sick to the best of one’s ability, preserve patient privacy, teach the secrets of medicine to the next generation, and much more. What is interesting is not the oath itself, but the principles it expounds and the deep philosophical values that have firmly grounded the medical profession over the years.

To echo the words of the poet William Butler Yeats: “Though the leaves are many, the root is one.” As a community of bankers, we should have one overriding root purpose – to serve and steward our community. The services we offer are to serve the larger interest of the community. We do not originate a loan merely to meet business targets, but to enable individuals to own homes, businesses to create jobs and for overall societal wellbeing Finance exists for society, not society for finance. We can no more detach ourselves from this social purpose than we can separate humanity from humans. It ought to be an inherent part of us, our profession’s DNA. This sense of identity and purpose should ground all our pursuits. It is also the thread that ties all 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  functions of banking together. Whether you are in the credit, compliance, IT, risk management or audit functions, you share a common purpose to society and duty to serve the public interest. As we reflect back over the centuries, the first banks in the ancient world made grain loans to farmers and traders who travelled between cities. During the 15th – 18th century, banks also catalysed the financing of international trade, subsequently ushering in a new age of maritime discovery and exploration. The banking world then served the real needs of the economy.
Timothy F Geithner: Perspectives on the US financial system Remarks by Mr Timothy F Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, before the Economic Club of New York, New York, 27 May 2004. *  *  *  It is a pleasure to join you today at the Economic Club of New York. And it’s a pleasure to share the program with John Thain. Today I want to talk about the U.S. financial system at this point of transition in the U.S. economy. The U.S. financial system is currently enjoying a period of considerable strength. Financial institutions are strong. Financial innovation has spurred advances in risk management. Market practices surrounding key products such as OTC derivatives have been strengthened. And the industry’s payments infrastructure has been improved by additional safeguards and new clearing and settlement arrangements. The system has been remarkably resilient in the face of a range of recent challenges. The recent record is reassuring, but no financial system is without vulnerability. Periods of relatively favorable economic and financial conditions, such as we are experiencing today, are good times to reflect on the capacity of the system to withstand future stress. I want to focus today not only on developments that have improved the overall stability of the system, but also on some continuing challenges, and on the implications of these for risk management and supervision. The history of shocks to the U.S. financial system is highly varied.

For the Federal Reserve, this means that we will devote even greater attention to the institutions that now constitute the center of our financial system, as well as to the clearance and settlement backbone. It means we need to make a greater investment in looking at risks in the financial system as a whole, not just those that have their origin in banks. And it means that we will have to continue to intensify our cooperation with other supervisory and regulatory authorities. The U.S. financial system is of course only as strong as our economy as a whole. Overall, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy look quite strong. But the size of our fiscal deficit, and the risks posed by our large external imbalance, place a greater burden than would otherwise be the case on the credibility of U.S. monetary policy. In this context, it is particularly important that we preserve the high degree of confidence that now seems to exist that U.S. monetary policy will respond appropriately to the evolving balance of risks in the overall economic outlook, and particularly that we will maintain price stability. This is critically important to sustaining the current expansion, and to sustaining confidence in U.S. financial markets over time. And getting monetary policy right is one of the most important things we can to do contribute to financial stability as well. BIS Review 33/2004  5