samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
One is the distance between the “neutral” nominal rate of interest and the lower bound. This is plotted on the x-axis. The larger this gap (i.e. the further you are to the right) the less the lower bound is likely to matter. There may occasionally be shocks that are bad enough to take you there but they obviously become rarer the more distant the average policy rate from its floor. Maybe you can think of this a reasonable description of the 1990s (when the neutral interest rate was comfortably above zero and “forward guidance” was no more than a twinkle in Michael Woodford’s eye). The second is the scope for this committed (“Odyssean”) form of guidance. QE isn’t available to either of the policymakers in Chart 4. But one, at least, has the capacity to commit credibly to particular policies beyond the current date. The average loss in this case is plotted in blue. The red policymaker can’t do this. He takes the lower bound into account when setting current policy, but, unfettered by any sort of prior commitment, he’s free to reset policy each period as he sees fit. This may sound like a good thing (isn’t it better always to have full discretion?) and there are certainly many instances in which the blue policymaker would prefer to be released from his earlier promise.

Aside from QR codes, we have made a very good progress in terms of PromptPay, which is our electronic payment system and we have seen a very high uptake in usage of PromptPay, especially during the COVID crisis. The number of transactions per person per year increased and reached an all-time high. We have also extended to cross-border payments. We now have in place cross-border payments using QR codes with many of our neighbors such as Cambodia, Vietnam, as well as Japan. Most recently, we have connected our payment system, PromptPay, with that of Singapore, PayNow. This was the first global fast payment linkage and we have also seen a very satisfactory uptake on that front. Another opportunity for us in this area, building upon the digital infrastructure that we put in place, is mobile banking. We have seen a very rapid rise in the usage of mobile banking applications in Thailand. Thai people love their mobile phones and we have seen Thailand ranked number one globally in terms of usage of mobile banking applications for three years in a row. I think this is an example of opportunities that may arise and will come about as a result of putting in place the right kind of digital infrastructure to enable these things to happen. Aside from the initiatives I mentioned on the digital front, another important initiative that we have been undertaking is on CBDC or Central Bank Digital Currency.
There is a danger associated with this conviction, if the widening gap between what is expected of central banks and what they can realistically deliver end up undermining central bank credibility. To maintain public trust in the central banks, it is important to clearly lay out what monetary policy can and cannot achieve. I would like to highlight three areas where monetary policy limits in Thailand are particularly binding at present. Understanding these limits would also help explain our monetary policy actions. 1. Single instrument, multiple objectives  The first limitation has to do with the fact that multiple objectives cannot be targeted using one instrument, namely, the policy interest rate. This is a key reason why most central banks in the world today typically focus on a single primary objective of price stability, which is crucial to a well-functioning market economy and is what monetary policy has most control over. There are of course other equally important policy objectives, in particular financial stability, as recent global crisis clearly illustrated. The “flexible inflation targeting” is precisely designed to allow the central bank to stabilize not only inflation but also to mitigate the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances. Endowing central banks with more policy tools to achieve this additional objective has gathered a lot of support in international policy forums. The demand for monetary policy does not stop there, however.

Zdenek Tuma: Present and future challenges for the Czech National Bank Introductory remarks by Mr Zdenek Tuma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the CNB Conference: ”Challenges of EU Accession”, Prague, 1 April 2003. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, It is my pleasure and honour to welcome you here to the Czech National Bank for what I believe will be a very interesting policy-oriented conference. The Czech National Bank is this year celebrating a decade of its existence as the central bank of the Czech Republic. When we look back at that period, we can see many difficult challenges that we had to face in order to facilitate the economic transition and later on to bring our operations into line with best international practices. This experience is similar for all other central banks in the post-communist EU-accession countries. But I do not want to speak about those past challenges today. They are mostly behind us, and our situation is now very different. Therefore, I would like to be forward-looking as any modern central banker should - and to speak about the challenges that we all share at present and, most importantly, about those that lie ahead. As you all know, the accession treaties will be signed in two weeks. This will be a symbolic milestone in the EU integration process, which has been going on in the economic and political sphere for many years.
I hope our history will shed some light on those that view the undoing of large interventions as a cause for concern. Shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Central Bank of Chile began reducing the policy rate from an initial level of 7.25 percent until it reached the effective lower bound of 50 basis points in July 2009. The rate remained at that level for one year until June 2010. During that period, the Central Bank also took unconventional measures aimed at providing liquidity to the financial markets. For instance, we offered financial institutions access to a term liquidity program (FLAP) at the monetary policy rate of 0.5 percent. During January 2010 we reached a peak of 6.5 billion dollars on the liquidity program, equivalent to 40% of the banking system’s capital and reserves.2 Our exit strategy from this expansionary policy was free from major difficulties. We started unwinding these special facilities in November 2009 by gradually shortening their term. As we finished dismantling our special programs we slowly began increasing the monetary policy rate to a neutral range. The withdrawal of the monetary stimulus at an appropriate pace allowed us to maintain inflation expectations at a two year horizon close to our target of 3 percent.

Before moving on to the next topic, let me close this discussion by stressing that, while central banks have been and will continue to be creative in using all available tools to achieve their mandate, we must recognize the limits of conventional monetary policy in circumstances of extreme financial distress. Conventional monetary policy alone is unlikely to be able to put back the economy on the right track and its combination with other policies certainly increases the chances of success. 4. Financial rescues and their Impact on a central bank’s balance sheet  Please allow me now to finish with another topic where Chile’s experience can contribute to the international debate: the implementation of a financial bailout and the risks it imposes on the operation of a central bank. In normal times, central banks conduct their operations maintaining only the safest assets on their balance sheets, typically government bonds or other low-risk assets. But in times of distress, acting as lender of last resort, central banks may also accept lower quality, more risky assets, as collateral for liquidity provision or in outright purchases aimed at rescuing banks, with the consequent risk to their balance sheets. This has been indeed the case in several countries during the recent financial crisis. The possibility that risk-taking by central banks may result in losses that affect their reputation and operations has recently preoccupied policymakers, especially when pondering about the possibility of a large rescue operation of troubled European banks by the ECB. The concerns are both financial and operational.
Rapid developments in technology gradually lead to higher productivity and increase our welfare, but they are also a source of concern for many people. Will my job still exist in the future, or will it be done by a robot or an algorithm? How can my company compete in these days of rapid technological advances? * I would like to thank Erik Frohm for helping prepare this speech, Elizabeth Nilsson for translating and Meredith  Beechey-Österholm, Charlotta Edler, Rebecka Hallerby, Jesper Hansson, Åsa Olli Segendorf, Marianne Sterner and Ulf Söderström for valuable comments. 1 Refers to Statistics Sweden's figures on private individuals’ access to and use of IT. 82% of all Swedes in the age range 16-85 years had access to the internet via a mobile phone in 2018. http://www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se/pxweb/sv/ssd/START__LE__LE0108__LE0108D/LE0108T14/?rxid=8f4a0041-1be9-4ed3-b6fb182251a2b5cd 2 https://www.zmescience.com/research/technology/smartphone-power-compared-to-apollo-432/  1 [12]  My speech today will not provide all the answers. Instead, I intend to discuss my thoughts on how digitalisation can affect various parts of the economy and what role it plays for monetary policy. Can the Riksbank attain its target of 2 per cent even in a world of digitalisation? Is it still desirable to aim for this target? My reply to both of these questions is yes, but I will return to that later. Focus on digitalisation – where are we now? What is digitalisation and how does it differ from the concepts of automation and technological advances?

For this very reason, the award ceremony for the best diploma thesis has become a consolidated activity of the Bank of Albania geared toward supporting promising students in the field of scientific research within the scope of central banking. This year, students also showed a high interest in presenting their diploma theses. We received 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  27 studies on a wide range of economic, financial, and legal topics focused mostly on the Albanian economy. It is a delight to see how these studies use contemporary research methodologies and valuable information intelligently to analyse economic phenomena, employing theoretical and empirical arguments. In spite of the challenge of choosing the most interesting studies, we now have our verdict on the “Governor’s Award for the Best Diploma Thesis 2018”. The selection has not been easy. Each year, we receive increasingly more qualitative studies in terms of research methodology, topic originality and methods applied in research. I take this opportunity to congratulate all the contestants for the high quality of the presented studies. I hope and encourage you to further enrich your theoretical and empirical capacities as you advance in your careers, wherever that may lead, in academia or as experts in specific fields. I hope you will be unremittingly engaged in scientific research, in a relationship of which only the starting date is known. Thank you and happy holidays! 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
We seek to clarify in advance what we might or might not regulate, in order to help entities to roll out their services. Our regulations are reactive; necessarily so because we have to respond to market and industry developments. However, we must respond to market changes promptly, and complement prompt reaction with a forward-looking perspective, seeding innovation and attracting players in electronic financial services (EFS). The MAS intends to set up a venture capital fund and a grant assistance scheme, to incentivise electronic financial services in Singapore. Our purpose is to position Singapore as a test-bed for innovative electronic financial services, and a centre for incubators of electronic financial services start-ups. The fund is not intended to replace the venture capital industry, but will instead act as a catalyst to develop Singapore into a leading EFS hub. The objectives of these two schemes are twofold: •  To raise efficiency of financial sector players through the employment of EFS technology. •  To attract players to base their regional or global capabilities in Singapore. We aim to build a strong industry base of major EFS players, develop in the requisite skills and expertise, build supporting e-frastructure, and "electronicise" existing brick-and-mortar financial services. Conclusion Barring mishaps, the global industry trend towards greater integration and openness will continue. This will confront both regulators and industry practitioners with complex challenges.

But do not expect a zero risk environment - and do not demand it. Fear of failure is the antidote for instability. It will go a long way to underpin the long term health of the financial system. 5  Governor Lars Heikensten “The Riksbank’s Work on Financial Stability”: Speech at Göteborgs University, 25 November 2003. BIS Review 5/2004  9
The Central Bank as the banker to the Government maintains accounts of the General Treasury and Government institutions and agencies. The Treasury Account, known as DST Account, is the main transaction account to handle public debt flows. In terms of the MLA, Government or Government institutions and agencies must obtain the advice of the Monetary Board on the implications if any borrowing on the monetary conditions before raising such debts. This is to ensure that Government borrowing is made with the concurrence of the Monetary Board in line with the monetary policy. Two other important agency functions are the management of Employees’ Provident Fund and administration of Exchange Control Act, both of which have evolved controversy. In the case of Employees’ Provident Fund, the Monetary Board is empowered to manage the fund including investment of surplus funds in securities the Monetary Board considers fit. I know you have heard enough on some of the EPF investments made in the recent past. Given the nature of the EPF and responsibilities of the Government, EPF funds are, I would submit meant only for safer investments. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  The Exchange Control Act is to regulate and manage foreign exchange flows of the country which is essentially a part of macroeconomic management. In economics, exchange controls are about the regulation of the quantity or volume in the foreign exchange market. Conversely, the Central Bank regulates the price or exchange rate in the market under the MLA.

There were, of course, “cold turkey” alternatives, but they were considered too risky at the time. The Central Bank of Iceland’s effective policy rate peaked at 18% in early 2009 (at the time, the seven-day collateral lending rate) but has now been reduced to around 5½% (now the average of the rates on certificates of deposit and current accounts). The exchange rate stabilised in the second half of 2009 with no supporting intervention since early November 2009. So far this year, the exchange rate has appreciated by 11% in trade-weighted terms, again without any supporting intervention. This has alleviated pressures on impaired private sector balance sheets and contributed to relatively speedy disinflation. Fiscal policy was set within a medium-term fiscal consolidation programme covering the period 2009–2013. The programme aims at a primary surplus in 2011 and a substantial overall surplus in 2013, making it possible to reduce Treasury debt from that year onwards. The announcement of a medium-term plan made it possible for automatic fiscal stabilisers to work more or less unhindered in 2009, with fiscal consolidation taking hold in 2010. This was important in two respects. First, it limited the negative demand effects of fiscal consolidation precisely when the recession was at its steepest. Second, it sent a signal that adverse public sector debt dynamics would be addressed over the medium term, thus reducing risk premia in domestic and foreign interest rates facing the sovereign.
In a period of increased cross-border labour flows, substantial technological advances, changes in competitive conditions and new trading patterns, we may, with our very open economy, have to accept a somewhat greater variation in inflation and deviations from the target, as we have witnessed over the past two to three years. Even though economic growth has been strong over the past 15 years, economic cycles have varied. A clear upturn in the years from 1993 to 1998 was followed by a period of more moderate growth and  3  Interview in Adresseavisen, 27 December 1980. 4  Based on an analysis conducted by Norges Bank of price indices for more than 130 different groups of goods and services for the period 1980-2005. 5  Alan Greenspan: Testimony before the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, July 13, 1988. BIS Review 10/2006  3  a mild downturn in 2002 and into 2003. Since summer 2003, the Norwegian economy has again experienced a marked upturn. Wage developments reflect and influence business cycles. Strong employment growth in the 1990s resulted in a rise in labour costs, which in turn had a dampening impact on growth. Moderate wage growth in recent years is being accompanied by a strong cyclical upturn. The Norwegian economy has continued to exhibit high growth this year. Low interest rates, higher petroleum investment and strong global growth have been the most important driving forces.

Price stability is essential for sustained economic prosperity, and we are strongly committed to using our tools as needed to achieve our price stability and maximum employment goals. 1 International Monetary Fund, Database of Fiscal Policy Responses to COVID-19,  October 2021. 2 Olivier Armantier, Fatima Boumahdi, Leo Goldman, Gizem Koar, Jessica Lu, Giorgio  Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, "Have Consumers' Long-Run Inflation Expectations Become Un-Anchored?," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, September 24, 2021; Olivier Armantier, Leo Goldman, Gizem Koar, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams, "What Are Consumers' Inflation Expectations Telling Us Today?," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, February 14, 2022. 3 Olivier Armantier, Leo Goldman, Gizem Koar, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw,  and John C. Williams, "What Are Consumers' Inflation Expectations Telling Us Today?," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, February 14, 2022. 4 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC  Statement, March 16, 2022. 5 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic  Projections, March 16, 2022. 4/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  6 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Principles for Reducing the Size  of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, January 26, 2022. 5/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Josef Bonnici: Strengthening economic resilience Address by Professor Josef Bonnici, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the Annual Dinner of the Institute of Financial Services, Saint Julian’s, 20 November 2015. *  *  *  Honourable Minister, members of the Institute, distinguished guests, I would like to thank the President and Committee of ifs Malta for once again organising this Annual Dinner and giving me the opportunity to share my thoughts with such a distinguished audience. Mr President, I am pleased to hear you speak about the Institute’s commitment towards raising the standards of financial services education, as this is exactly what we need for our dynamic financial sector to remain successful and a key contributor to our economic development. Over the years, the Central Bank of Malta has worked closely with the Institute, and more recently participated in the successful ifs Annual Conference on The Future of Pensions. This national conference acted as a catalyst to rekindle the debate on private pensions in Malta. I commend the Institute for this important initiative. I wish you success in all the Institute’s future endeavours. Introduction The current international economic environment poses a number of key challenges, including the weak recovery in the euro area, the slowdown in emerging economies, the enduring geopolitical tensions, and possible spill-overs from the US monetary policy that could affect financial conditions on a global scale. Clearly, our economy is not immune from developments beyond our shores.

In a recent report, the Malta Competition and Consumer Affairs Authority made a number of recommendations to address issues primarily related to price transparency, barriers to expansion and consumer mobility in view of improving competition and borrowing costs for SMEs. Bank charges on SME loans and charges for credit transfers need to be revised downwards to facilitate access to finance and also to encourage the use of electronic money, which would ultimately result in lower processing costs to banks. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 9 – Credit growth to households and businesses  In keeping constant focus on maintaining competitiveness, the Government took a significant step by committing itself to set up the Malta Development Bank. Preparatory work on the establishment of the Bank is well advanced. The development bank will strengthen and diversify the local financial base and will contribute to economic growth by funding sectors and projects that are not catered for by commercial banks on their own. It will provide attractive wholesale financing and risk sharing facilities. It will be a powerful tool to bring to realisation more economically feasible projects. The delay in tackling non-performing loans (NPL) on the bank’s books is another factor that puts a drag on credit growth and reflects a dimension of credit risk that should be resolved. An efficient judiciary system that deals with insolvency cases in a timely and cost efficient manner facilitates credit risk management by bringing down the stock of NPLs.