samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
The first point is how the Fund can improve its surveillance by focusing on how best to reduce the likelihood of crises in emerging markets, in particular, how to help emerging markets better cope with the challenge of the next crisis. The second is our view that the Fund’s surveillance and its works on crisis resolution should recognize the usefulness of national and regional self-insurance efforts that are being pursued by a growing number of countries. And the third is our suggestion that the Fund’s works on crisis prevention and crisis resolution can benefit from a clear separation of these two functions in terms of duties, responsibilities, and decisionmaking, so as to achieve greater effectiveness and accountability. To begin, the consensus seems to be that the Fund has not been doing a good-enough job on crisis prevention and crisis resolution. This is evidenced by a string of financial crises in emerging markets that had happened, which does not reflect well on the Fund’s surveillance mechanism. In addition, dissatisfactions were expressed in the Fund’s perceived lack of consistency and coherence in its approach to crisis resolution, in the shortcomings of its program design and conditionality, and most importantly, in the way political pressure from the major economies were allowed to influence the program content and decisions. In the Thai case, our own experience with IMF involvement was not dissimilar.

Turbo-charging sterling LIBOR transition: why 2020 is the year for action – and what the Bank of England is doing to help Speech given by Andrew Hauser, Executive Director, Markets  International Swaps and Derivatives Association/SIFMA Asset Management Group Benchmark Strategies Forum, London  Wednesday 26 February 2020  I am grateful to Sarah Hall for co-writing this speech – and to Amber Evans, Alastair Hughes, Wayne Leslie, Will Parry, Rhys Phillips, Edwin Schooling Latter, Dave Ramsden and Francesca Zwolinksy for their advice and comments. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  Introduction 2020 is a critical year for LIBOR transition. Great progress was made in 2019, particularly in sterling wholesale markets – and I want to give special thanks to the part that ISDA’s support and leadership has played in that. But, with the finish line for LIBOR now clearly in view, there is still a lot of ground to cover – particularly in the cash markets. We need to see another decisive acceleration in effort in 2020 to ensure risk-free rates are adopted across the full range of sterling business, and LIBOR is left behind for good. The motor racing analogy is apt, because LIBOR transition is complex, fast-paced and – above all – a team effort. The green lights came on some time ago, and the private sector has been decisively – and rightly – leading from the front.
Pursuing monetary policy to stabilise inflation and raising the key rate to achieve this, the Bank of Russia curbs growth in long-term interest rates in the economy. This quarter experience is a good illustration of the above. Despite the increase in the key rate on three occasions since last March for a total of 125 basis points, the yields of long-term OFZs are currently on the same level as in late March. As far as the pace of lending growth is concerned, it remains high both in corporate and particularly retail segments. Thus, mortgages are rising by more than 25% year-on-year. In addition, retail loans are heating consumer demand. We are also concerned by the fact that lending is growing due to loans to borrowers with a high debt burden. Therefore, we resume prepandemic macroprudential add-ons on unsecured loans from 1 July and on mortgage loans with a low down payment and a high debt-to-income ratio of borrowers — from August. The Bank of Russia will stand ready to further increase macroprudential add-ons to prevent the accumulation of systemic risks and to ensure financial stability. Since our meeting in April, the balance of risks has tilted even more towards proinflationary risks. Elevated inflation expectations as a response to high inflation and low interest rates still pose a major risk. With fears of future price growth, people tend to spend more today and save less for tomorrow. This makes prices grow even more rapidly. Disinflationary risks look weaker.

Andrew Large: Basel II and systemic stability Speech by Sir Andrew Large, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, at the British Bankers' Association - Basel II/CAD 3 Conference, London, 13 March 2003. *  *  *  Introduction Welcome to all present - particularly Bill Rutledge of the New York Fed, whose President, Bill McDonough, is rightly credited with the paternity of Basel II. Basel II is a significant step forward. It brings life to the concept of capital requirements as a function of the actual risks which banks undertake. And it extends many of the principles long developed in the area of market risk, into that of credit risk. The very essence of the banking business. This was a courageous move. And it has required Herculean labour, intellectual agility, and sheer hard work. It seeks to address the public policy objectives of regulation and supervision on the one hand, and the real-world best practice of how banks manage their businesses on the other. It has sought to provide incentives to private firms to encourage them to manage themselves in ways which reinforce their own strengths, and hence to contribute to financial stability as a whole. But equally it is designed to enable supervisors to develop resources to sharpen their own judgement, to encourage them to take account of individual circumstances, to avoid box ticking, and to add real value to the process. These are worthy ambitions. They rely on the interaction of the three pillars to achieve it.
This is then followed by a discussion on the authorities’ major policies to further strengthen financial institutions’ positions in view of more intensified competition and changing financial environment, including the implications of these policies. Finally, I will conclude this morning’s talk by highlighting some challenges and benefits of capital market development for the banking sector. The Thai financial system consists of four main institutional categories, in the order of their importance: the banking sector, the capital market, specialized financial institutions and non-bank financial intermediaries. The first two categories are the backbone of the Thai financial system, while the third provides funding for specific developmental purposes in accordance with the government policy, and the last supplements the others. Despite the stock exchange boom last year and the pick up of the bond market in recent years, the banking sector remains the primacy of our financial system in every sense. Not only does it provide the bulk of lending that amounted to about 5.5 trillion baht as of end-2003, or equivalent to 93 percent of GDP, the banking sector also mobilizes savings from the public and provides means of payment and settlements that sustain the well-functioning economy. With the recapitalization effort and commendable operational improvement, the banking sector has emerged much stronger after the 1997 crisis, with all performance indicators pointing to the direction of resiliency. The banking sector’s net profit has turned positive for the past three years; this figure more than doubled in 2003 from the previous year.

Since pegging these crypto-assets to central bank money – the only legal tender in our monetary system and hence its anchor – is complex and tricky, to say the least, allowing such settlement assets to spread unchecked could affect the transmission of monetary policy and undermine financial stability. II. Our three levers for responding to these challenges I would like to share with you what we are doing to respond to these challenges. The Banque de France is working on three complementary areas: regulation, facilitation and experimentation. A) The first of these stems from the observation that security depends on having an appropriate regulatory framework in place that guarantees financial stability, but also encourages financial innovation in order to enhance end-user services and system performances. At the European level, we have welcomed and are supporting the proposed Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), presented in September 2020:  With the publication of the MiCA proposal, the European Union was the first G20 jurisdiction to respond to the urgent need to regulate the crypto-asset market. We also support the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA). The text will create a harmonised framework for strengthening the IT security of the overall financial sector. I’m thinking in particular of cloud players, whose role in critical segments of the sector raises the question of whether they should be located in the European Union.
However, it does not specify the size of the deviation from the target that will require such an explanation. Therefore, in order to clarify this mechanism and facilitate its operation, the Central Bank has set a symmetrical uncertainty band of 2 percentage points in both directions around the point target. It has been decided to keep the uncertainty band around the target at 2 percent for 2007 as well. The path consistent with the end-year target and the uncertainty bands defined for the end of each quarter of 2007 are shown in Table 1. In case the figures go outside the band, the Central Bank shall submit a separate report to the Government disclosing the reasons for the deviation and the measures to be taken for convergence to the target and share this report with the public. The path shown in Table 1 will also be used as performance criterion for the IMF reviews within the framework of the Stand-by program.

The first session will start at 1:00 pm and will host the Central Bank authorities and specialists as well as authorities from the Undersecretariat of Treasury. In this session, the related bodies of the Central Bank will present their reports on evaluations about economic developments and inflation outlook to the Monetary Policy Committee. At the same time, the authorities from the Undersecretariat of Treasury will present their evaluations on the developments in debt management and fiscal policy to the Committee. In the second session, the Committee members will make the final evaluations about the outlook and the decision will be put to a vote. After making a decision, members of the Committee will prepare a brief report explaining the rationale of the decision. The decision and its rationale will be announced by the Central Bank in a press release before 7:00 pm on the same day, and it will also be posted on the website of the Bank. A significant change in the upcoming period is that the Turkish version and the English translation of the decision will be published on the same day. Other policy statements and important dates The Central Bank will continue to publish main policy statements regularly in 2007 as well. Within this framework: •  The Inflation Report will continue to be published quarterly. •  The Financial Stability Report will be published twice a year on previously announced dates.
6  BIS central bankers’ speeches

At the same time, business start-ups remain at a record level, at over 400,000 excluding microentrepreneurs. Similarly, we do not have any general concerns about the reimbursement of SGLs. Since February 2022, we have received 671 requests, covering less than 0.1% of the total number of SGLs. Of the EUR 143 billion that have helped close to 700,000 businesses, EUR 46 billion have already been repaid. And today, over 95% of businesses are repaying their SGL correctly. The Banque de France's Credit Mediation remains mobilised in each of your départements to address the most difficult cases, within the framework of the "local agreement" renewed for 2023. Regarding households, growth in housing loans still amounted to +5.3% in December (and +5.1% in January) in the context of a gradual rise in the average rate, which then stood at 2.05%,2 compared with 2.9% on average in the euro area and 3.5% in Germany. In France, housing credit remains the cheapest,  1 2  Business failures | Banque de France (banque-france.fr) Excl. fees and insurance; Loans to individuals — December 2022, Banque de France, 3 February 2023  Page 4 sur 5 most abundant and safest in Europe - with 97% of outstanding loans at fixed rates. Source: ECB Of course, we have come out of the years of exceptionally easy credit. Nevertheless, the financing needs of the real economy are still largely met, thanks to the soundness of French banks.
The third point is the risk to growth. For the most part, we still see developments in the global economy as a key downside risk to Thailand’s growth this year. A key risk at this time is the strength of global recovery in the second-half of the year, given a more limited room in the advanced economies for using fiscal stimulus to drive growth because of concern over longer-term fiscal sustainability and the risk of eroding inflation expectations. Another issue is the possible spillover of concerns over sovereign debt onto the European banking sector. Domestically, the drought situation seems to have improved substantially after a bout of plentiful rainfall country-wide. Finally, we have risks relating to how Thailand’s political situation will evolve going forward. This is an issue which remains a known-unknown to most Thais. For this evening, I have been asked to dwell a bit more into the interactions between politics and the economy in the context of what has been happening in Thailand. Without getting too much off track, let me end my remark with three personal observations on this point. First, it is clear that politics does affect the economy and its performance. The channels of impact come largely through: (1) disruption to normal businesses from unsettling political events as we have seen in the last two years; (2) its effects on the country’s image internationally which negatively effects our international sectors such as tourism and exports; and (3) its impact on investor confidence due to the perception of political instability.

I hope this brief remark has been useful. Again I want to thank the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce for the invitation. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 101/2010
Looking ahead, on the basis of current oil futures prices, headline inflation is likely to pick up further in the near term, largely reflecting movements in the annual rate of change of energy prices. However, measures of underlying inflation are expected to rise more gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the expected economic recovery and the corresponding gradual absorption of slack. Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) continues to expand at a robust pace, with its annual rate of growth increasing to 4.8% in November 2016, up from 4.4% in October. As in previous months, annual growth in M3 was mainly supported by its most liquid components, with the narrow monetary aggregate M1 expanding at an annual rate of 8.7% in November, up from 8.0% in October. Loan dynamics followed the path of gradual recovery observed since the beginning of 2014. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations was 2.2% in November 2016, after 2.1% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of loans to households was 1.9% in November, after 1.8% in October. Although developments in bank credit continue to reflect the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and nonfinancial sector balance sheets, the monetary policy measures put in place since June 2014 are significantly supporting borrowing conditions for firms and households and thereby credit flows across the euro area.

The euro area bank lending survey for the fourth quarter of 2016 indicates that credit standards for loans to enterprises are broadly stabilising, while loan demand has continued to expand at a robust pace across all loan categories. To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the need for a continued very substantial degree of monetary accommodation to secure a sustained return of inflation rates towards levels that are below, but close to, 2% without undue delay. Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance supports economic activity. In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute much more decisively, both at the national and at the European level. The implementation of structural reforms needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost investment, productivity and potential output growth in the euro area. Structural reforms are necessary in all euro area countries. In particular, reforms are needed to improve the business environment, including the provision of an adequate public infrastructure. In addition, the enhancement of current investment initiatives, progress on the capital markets union and reforms that will improve the resolution of non-performing loans, are a priority. Fiscal policies should also support the economic recovery, while remaining in compliance with the fiscal rules of the European Union.
Figure8 Real MPR (*) (9ercent) 8  Brazil  6  8 6  Indonesia  4 2 South Africa  0  Mexico  New Zealand  Colombia  4  Peru 2 0  Chile -2  Australia  -2  (*) Calculated as the current MPR minus inflation expected at December 2016. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and central banks of respective countries. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 9 Total corporate debt (*) (percent of GDP) 125  125  External Debt  Local Debt  100  100  75  75  50  50  25  25  0  09  10  11  13  12  14  15  0  III  (*) Excludes banks. Based on firm-level administrative information. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on Achef, SBIF and SVS data. Figure 10 Corporate financial indicators (1) (percent; times) 12  0,8 Indebtedness (right axis) (3)  9  0,6  6  0,4 Profitability (2)  3  0,2  0  0,0 95  97  99  01  03  05  07  09  11  13  15  (1) Data at December of each year, except 2015 which uses information up to September. (2) Accumulated profits in twelve months before financial expenses plus taxes over total assets. (3) Debt to equity ratio. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on SVS data.

Rodrigo Vergara: The Monetary Policy Report and the Financial Stability Report Presentation by Mr Rodrigo Vergara, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, before the Finance Commission of the Honorable Senate of the Republic, Santiago de Chile, 21 December 2015. *  *  *  Both Reports can be found at http://www.bcentral.cl/en. Accompanying figures and tables can be found at the end of the speech. Introduction Mr. President of the Finance Commission of the Senate, senator Andrés Zaldívar, senators members of the Commission, ladies and gentlemen, I appreciate your invitation to present the vision of the Board of the Central Bank of Chile on recent macroeconomic and financial developments, the respective outlook and its implications for monetary and financial policy. This view is contained in detail in our Monetary Policy Report of December 2015 and in our Financial Stability Report for the second half of 2015. In the past few months, annual CPI inflation evolved in line with September’s estimates, although its core component – the CPIEFE – posted a slightly larger increase, reflecting the further depreciation of the peso in the period, with still bounded output gaps and within the historical indexing patterns. GDP growth for the third quarter matched the projections, while domestic demand was somewhat higher. Thus, the economy continued to grow in the range of 2 to 2.5 percent. The external scenario has worsened, due to the drop in the terms of trade, particularly the price of copper, sluggish growth of our trading partners, and notso favorable financial conditions.
Domestic policymakers have greater understanding of the local economic and financial conditions, with the necessary experience in dealing with countryspecific circumstances. In this regard, multilateral institutions must respect that individual countries, as independent institutions, have made the tough but necessary choices after careful and deliberate considerations. Multilateral institutions possess great breadth of cross-country information to dispense prescription for its member countries. But there is no such thing as a ‘one-pill-cures-all’ remedy. Instead, tailored policy responses are essential given the unique and diverse nature of emerging economies. As the world becomes increasingly more integrated and harmonised, we welcome the value of global coordination and interaction if it adds to the betterment of society at large. But where peculiarities exist, member institutions ought to be given the space to exercise their autonomy. We must also avoid the rush towards greater cross-country standardisation that impinge on policy flexibility or where policies are judged based on pre-subscribed narrow definitions, theories and concepts rather than the actual outcomes. The never-ending debate on the categorisation of policies as capital flow management measures or macro prudential policies is one such contention. In an increasingly integrated and complex environment, the impact of shocks varies between countries. The policy would also vary. Even if policies are similar, the outcomes might be different. The work of multilateral institutions becomes even more difficult and complex. For instance, any mis-categorisation of policy could prematurely reverse the effectiveness of that policy, given the impact it might have on investor perception and sentiment.

Frankly, it’s too early to tell: we know the final rate of inflation, 2%; but we don’t know yet the « terminal interest rate », or the policy rates that will ensure a timely return of inflation to our target, while seeing no reasons for increased expectations on these. Let me rather give some light on the first part of the journey, the normalisation till neutral rate; for sure it’s unobservable, but this one can be estimated, in the euro area at below or close to 2% according to me. I sometimes use a simple metaphor: as long as it is about lifting off the accelerator, we have to act for sure, in a determined but orderly way, and we should be there by the end of the year. Afterwards, the question could come of pressing the brake, and tightening if needed: but this part of the journey remains today an open question, and will deserve further assessment and reflection, in due time. Let me only stress one last and obvious point of yesterday’s decision: it marks the return of interest rates in positive territory. This historical step brings with it multiple dimensions that need to be revisited: on our operational framework, on our TLTRO operations, on our remuneration mechanisms of bank’s reserves. This is a matter that, as Christine Lagarde said yesterday, we will take up without delay. May I add that with a long view, monetary policy cannot be the only game in town?