samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Some argue that raising the minimum wage, despite its costs, can potentially promote investment and improves labour productivity. Some prefer to provide direct fiscal incentives for firms to invest. Others see public investment as holding the key. The jury is still out as to how successful these approaches will prove to be in catalyzing an investment up-cycle, and ultimately alleviating the labour market issue. Fortunately, the currently conducive macroeconomic environment is already providing ample incentives for businesses to invest. Financing costs are currently low. Strong baht facilitates imports of capital goods. Firms stand to gain more from AEC integration if they carry out their planned investment in a timely manner. Collective efforts by all will also generate positive externalities, and can go a long way in easing the labour shortage problem for all parties. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  One fundamental force that may exacerbate the labour shortage problem is the demographic change. Slowly but inexorably, the Thai society is aging, as the total fertility rate is consistently lower than the replacement rate. The number of people aged 65 and above will double in less than 10 years. As projected by NESDB, by 2030 the working-age population will fall from the current rate of 68 percent to just over 60 percent, making Thailand’s old age dependency ratio slightly higher than the Asian average. The government can help manage this demographic transition by speeding up the reform of immigration policy, and simplify registration procedure.

Even if it is too early to tell, we can see that the financial support plans have contributed to a certain degree of recovery in the markets. Interbank rates are falling, credit spreads are narrowing and liquidity is returning in some markets. However, most of the content of the support plans is directed at handling the most pressing problems in the financial system. In the longer term other measures will be needed, and this is what I will discuss now. What are the future challenges? Let me first say that we need to realise that times of financial turbulence are unavoidable and something that we have to learn to live with. What is important is that we learn from previous experiences and use this knowledge to lower the probability of future crises occurring, and when they actually do happen, to mitigate their costs. We also need to realise that despite the many similarities between various crises they are never exactly the same. Therefore, flexibility is needed in the policy frameworks aimed at preventing and managing financial crisis. If I may start on the prevention side, it is hard – given the present circumstances – not to get in to a discussion of what role monetary policy can play in preventing the build up of economic imbalances.
He would be responsible for defining the collective strategy with the Eurogroup, and for ensuring it was implemented in each country. He would also be tasked with managing a reinforced ESM (European Stability Mechanism). In terms of timing, this second step can only reasonably come after the elections scheduled for next year in some euro area countries, as it requires modifying the European Treaties. The third step, in the longer term, would be to complete the Economic and Monetary Union with a European fiscal capacity. This involves gaining more trust from Member States, to avoid it being seen as a one-way “transfer union”. A genuine euro budget would be a stabilisation tool and could include, for example, a European-wide unemployment insurance scheme. It could also be used to finance certain “European public goods” such as digital technology, the energy transition or the integration of refugees. And in the long term, it could directly issue common debt and even raise taxes. Page 8 sur 8 ** Let me sum up. To withstand the current global headwinds, we in Europe must safeguard our three common economic and social assets. And we cannot just wait for better conditions: as a central banker, I have given you my views on the path we can take in the economic area. It is now time for Europeans to embark on some decisive actions to be able to look to the future with confidence.

As put by José Ortega y Gasset, the famous Madrid-born philosopher: “Life is a series of collisions with the future; it is not the sum of what we have been, but what we yearn to be”. Thank you for your attention. i  European Commission, Standard Eurobarometer 85, July 2016. European Commission, European economic forecast, Autumn 2016. iii Matthieu Bussière, Laurent Ferrara and Juliana Milovich, ‘Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty’, Banque de France WP No. 571, September 2015. iv World Bank, Doing business 2017 report. ii
At the same time, it would be very unfortunate, particularly in the light of the challenges facing the Swedish economy, to be forced to manage contagion effects from the energy price rise with interest rate rises. If one looks at the economic climate, I consider the similarities between the present situation and this time last year to be more striking than a comparison with 2001. Here I am mainly referring to the fact that economic prospects were at that time very uncertain with regard to how far the adaptation process had come after the over-optimism of the previous years, which had led to abnormally high share prices  and overly large investments by companies in the USA. Let me go back in time roughly one year and see what conclusions can be drawn from last year and what implications they might have for future developments. Developments 2002 to 2003 At the beginning of last year there were signs of a light at the end of the economic outlook tunnel. I wasn’t working at the Riksbank then, so don’t be surprised if parts of my historical description differ slightly from that of the Riksbank, as expressed in the Inflation Reports. The signs of a turnaround were most pronounced in the USA, but there were also some signals that Europe was on the threshold of a recovery. The reduction in stocks appeared to be well on its way, which is usually the first requirement for an upturn in production.

Vítor Constâncio: Reflections on financial integration and stability Speech by Mr Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the Joint ECB-EC Conference on “Financial Integration and Stability in a New Financial Architecture”, Frankfurt am Main, 28 April 2014. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, Dear colleagues and friends, It is indeed a pleasure to participate in this joint presentation of two important policy reports: the European Commission’s European financial stability and integration report 2013 and the ECB’s Financial integration in Europe 2014 report. Both studies illustrate that some steady, albeit uneven, progress is being made towards financial stabilisation. Banks are reducing their liquidity buffers, repaying our LTROs and regaining confidence from the markets. Money market integration is slowly improving, particularly in the secured segment. Quantity-based indicators confirm a stabilisation in bond markets and improved integration in equity markets. Given where we stood barely two years ago – on the edge of redenomination risks – such progress is encouraging. However, it does not mean we are entirely out of the danger zone. If we look at banking markets, there is still a large dispersion of borrowing costs for nonfinancial corporations across euro area countries. Thus, significant financial fragmentation still remains in the euro area. This is a concern for the recovery and also for monetary and macro-prudential policy. Under the pressure of the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, several solutions – both global and European – have indeed been adopted.
Yet a growing share of data storage services is being outsourced to cloud providers, most of which are foreign. In addition, the use of public cloud services, where data from multiple customers are aggregated on a single server, raises issues of data security and auditability. Several recent episodes such as the US sanctions in Crimea (2014) or the Amazon Web Services failure (2017) have illustrated the real risks to and impacts on the economy of a destabilisation of payment activities. They thus stressed the need for the community to maintain end-to-end control over an activity that is essential to industry, commerce and public services. 2. Faced with these challenges, what roles should central banks play? In this perspective, the public authorities responsible for the development of the regulatory framework applicable to financial services and European private players obviously have a major role to play. The future of Europe’s sovereignty over its payments system will be all the  more secure if it can rely in particular on the ability of its private and industrial players, FinTechs and financial intermediaries to adapt and innovate continuously in order to reap the benefits for themselves and their customers of an open, competitive and highly integrated payments market at European and international level.

But the total amount of the macroeconomically stable debt burden is, unfortunately, an absolute value not depending on the period, during which the debt is being accumulated. The lack of clear fiscal strategy in the future can destabilise the markets already now. Whether the government debt is good or bad, as I have already mentioned, is a sham question to a certain extent. Another sham question is a choice between the financial stability and economic growth. Both the central bank and the Ministry of Finance are being quite often criticised for focusing monetary and fiscal policies respectively on the problem of financial stability to the detriment of economic growth. In actual fact, economic growth is impossible without financial stability. While a stable budget is the basis of financial stability. It is possible to stake money, including government one, at the microlevel, at the level of small specific projects. To take risks at the macrolevel means to endanger economic growth and social stability. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  An important question is how to finance the deficit: through reserves or through debt? Strictly speaking, both options lead to growth in net debt (net of reserves) and consequently to debt burden accumulation. That is why this choice is also a sham one to a large extent. Nevertheless, since the commodity market risks are high, we believe that today the priority should be given to debt financing and keeping reserves for more complicated scenarios, when the access to debt financing is even more difficult.
We would not have it any other way, because the advantages of openness far outweigh the disadvantages. But the risks involved in this exposure were brought home to us by the Asian financial crisis. 20. For Hong Kong, the consequences of that crisis have been first a sharp recession, and secondly the series of attacks on our currency which I have already described. At the height of these attacks, during the summer of 1998, there was clear evidence that the free market in Hong Kong was in danger of failing to fulfil its functions. Specifically, the currency, securities and futures markets were being distorted to the point where efficient resource allocation had given way to manipulative speculation; where prices in the markets were no longer being determined by changes in underlying supply and demand; and where interest rates, instead of reflecting the supply and demand of liquidity, were being hijacked for the purpose of engineering dramatic changes in the markets. Strong evidence suggests that at the time a very small group of players were responsible for a preponderant proportion of the short futures contracts open at that time. We also estimate that currency borrowings to the tune of $ billion, arranged in advance to avoid the expected interest rate volatility they were hoping to generate in Hong Kong, had been made by a similarly small group of players to be quickly dumped at a time when the markets were most vulnerable.

But if we were to find a single factor that has brought the crisis to a head and magnified its damaging effects, we should be looking, not to ‘crony capitalism’ or ‘Asian values’, but to a more specific and more universal phenomenon: the swift flow of large amounts of heavily leveraged capital into and out of the region through an international financial system that is globalised, liberalised, technologically advanced, but, from an international point of view, largely unmanaged and unregulated. 3. The freedom of capital flows is, of course, essential to effective financial intermediation in the international dimension, which has played a vital role in promoting economic development in this region. But, as the current crisis has shown, it also has the potential to distort, disrupt or even destabilise domestic financial markets: this applies not just to ailing economies, but also to sound ones. Being small and open, with predictable policy responses, their markets are susceptible to manipulation. As you know, last summer Hong Kong was exposed to this problem in an extreme form, and we took radical and controversial measures to address it. We remain convinced not only that what we did preserved our financial system 1  BIS Review 35/1999  from a serious threat to its stability at a time of stress and uncertainty, but also that our actions were entirely consistent with our responsibilities as a government mandated by law to safeguard the free operation of financial business and the free flow of capital within, into and out of Hong Kong.
Regularly canvassing the views of the public, on the economy and on the setting of monetary policy, would be one way of harnessing that wisdom. This would allow central banks to listen to a potentially much wider and richer array of views on the setting of policy, in particular from those who might otherwise be distant, disenfranchised or distrustful of central banks and their actions. It would open central banks’ ears (and eyebrows) to a wider range of societal stakeholders when setting policy. The information provided from the public could serve as another input to the policy-setting process, much as monetary policy rules (and other data) do today. What are the public telling us about the right setting of policy and why? Clearly, neither rules nor polls should be followed slavishly - the scope for misinformation and mishap is simply too great. And the whole purpose of delegating policy to an independent third-party is to avoid the short-termism that may sometimes affect the general public. Nonetheless, if crowds, like rules, sometimes contain wisdom – different perspectives, different views, different narratives – then harvesting this information could be an important additional input into the policy 79 80 81  Earle et al (2016). Mackay (1841). Tetlock and Gardner (2016). 26  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  26  process. It would help reach, and solicit direct feedback from, those parts of society otherwise out of central banks’ reach. And it may, as a by-product, also improve public understanding of policy and the economy.

For instance, in one year the inflation rate of Slovenia and Austria may differ greatly due to changes in taxes or differences in the economic cycle, but the longterm price expectations of people still remain quite similar in these countries. This is logical. In the monetary union, it is natural that there occur differences in the inflation rate across regions, but these cannot last very long. Otherwise, the competitiveness of the country with the faster inflation rate will suffer: in the best case, the country’s economic growth will slow down gradually, but in the worst case the country will have to adjust through a difficult crisis similar to the situation in Greece. One way or another – eventually, this entails a decrease in demand and price growth will be forced back to its “correct” level. For us, not much has changed after joining the monetary union. Inflation in Estonia was affected by euro-area price stability already under the fixed exchange rate system. Though for a short while, Estonia’s inflation greatly exceeded that of Europe, long-term and excessive deviations were corrected by the economy. Otherwise, it would have started pressuring the credibility of the fixed exchange rate. While in the previous monetary system, more fretful analysts might have speculated that the economy would be adjusted through devaluation – the weakening of the currency’s value – which would have allowed inflation to remain higher, luckily this is not an option in the monetary union.
House prices posted positive dynamics, albeit significantly slower than those seen in many EU countries (Figures 35 and 36), on the back of higher household income, individuals’ improved expectations on their financial standing and of further extremely low interest rates (Figure 37). Nevertheless, only a small part of real estate transactions are loanfinanced. In the medium run, the potential risks that may arise from mortgage-backed loans refer to the high interest rate sensitivity in the case of debtors having taken housing loans (Figure 38). The five risks summarised above are cyclical, being related to the developments in the business and financial cycles. They can be amplified, in the future, by a potential deceleration of GDP dynamics, which will also raise the issue of the next growth engine (after the engine of domestic consumption slows down). The increase in financial intermediation for the corporate sector could be this alternative driver, but only in the context of improving payment discipline, lower uncertainties and a reversal to a positive market sentiment. These five cyclical risks are compounded by a fundamental, structural problem specific not only to the economy, but also to the Romanian society, i.e. the demographic problem. This is generated, on the one hand, by the natural decline in population, and, on the other hand, by emigration. Although the GDP hit a 25-year high, Romania continues to see further emigration and ageing population.

Gratitude also to the leaders who maintained a steady hand during the 1990s in the run-up to the euro, in a very difficult environment. This anniversary is no time for complacency. But for continuous efforts, because the challenges lying ahead for Monetary Union will be numerous and demanding. As one of the major central banks in the industrialised world, we, like the others, have three challenges to cope with in our monetary policy-making: rapid technological progress, globalisation in all its dimensions, including the transformation of global finance, and population ageing. On top of those three major challenges, the ECB and the Eurosystem have to cope with two other important, self-assigned challenges. The first is the deepening of economic and financial integration at continental level, the progressive completion of a single economy with a single currency; we are the only central bank which is actively contributing to a major structural transformation of its own economy. The second is enlargement: we are called upon to extend progressively the euro area across the European Union as a whole; we are also the only central bank to undertake such an endeavour. Economic Union itself has its own challenges. I see three major challenges for the Eurogroup, for the governments of the euro area and for the Commission. The full and complete implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is a crucial component of EMU in the absence of a European federal budget.
As I said to a group of foreign firms a few weeks ago, all firms, regardless of size, need to keep this information in mind and get better at planning in advance, ensuring their recruiting efforts are providing a steady stream of qualified candidates, and looking for opportunities to move people around within the organization, particularly between the front office and control functions, to develop more well-rounded professionals. This is likely to mean more aggressive, creative and targeted searches and a commitment to ongoing training. As the competitive landscape and regulatory requirements change, firms will need to find the right balance between hiring new talent with specific expertise and training current staff to keep them up to speed and capitalize on institutional knowledge. 3. Continuing to Build Resilience – Stress Testing and Risk Management: No, I am not suggesting that all firms, regardless of size, are going to be required to participate in CCAR. However, I believe that incorporating the motivating principles behind stress testing into your planning – namely thinking about the many ways that tomorrow could be different from today and what that could mean for your business – is at the heart of managing your risk and your business with foresight and prudence. Sound risk management demands a thorough understanding of the organization’s full risk profile today and how it could evolve tomorrow. 1  Employee Tenure in 2014. 2  Talent Report: What Workers Want in 2012.

According to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median tenure of workers ages 25 to 34 is only three years – less than a third of the tenure among people aged 55 to 64 years old. 1 And, according a Future Workplace “Multiple Generations@Work” survey, 91 percent of “millennials” (that is, a person born between 1977 and 1997) expect to stay in a job for less than three years. Job-hopping can speed career advancement. Getting a promotion in the process of changing jobs allows employees to avoid the “dues paying” that can keep workers in a painfully slow rise up the corporate ladder. Job hopping can also lead to greater job fulfillment. A 2012 survey by Net Impact 2 found that 88 percent of all workers considered “positive culture” important or essential to their dream job, and 86 percent said the same for work they found “interesting.” The same survey found that millennials are the least satisfied in their careers. I also recognize that firms are no longer just competing with others in the financial sector for talent. With skills that can be adapted across multiple industries, the talent pool that was once specialized for financial firms is now spread thin. This puts pressure on the firms and gives talented workers the advantage of being selective in their roles. They demand more from hiring managers and sense other opportunities out there if they’re not satisfied.