samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
From 2003 and up to the end of 2007, growth in the Norwegian economy was high and gathered momentum both more quickly and more markedly than in the business cycles in the1980s and 1990s. The interest rate has by and large curbed the effects. The interest rate was low in the years between 2003 and 2005 while activity in the economy was still moderate, and has gradually been raised since then. Because inflation was low, the interest rate was kept low in a period of high growth and increasing capacity utilisation. Three factors were important: First, labour has flowed into Norway from other countries. The opening of the labour market to the new EU countries has provided us with access to a reserve of labour. Inward labour migration rose towards the end of the cyclical upturn and has contributed to sustaining the high level of growth. In 2007, the population expanded by more than 56 000, with net immigration at 40 000. This is the highest population growth ever recorded in Norway. Second, businesses in Norway have become increasingly efficient, resulting in lower costs. It has been profitable to hire more employees despite the high wage level in Norway. The business sector has made use of new technology and businesses have been restructured. The many sweeping reforms of the 1980s and 1990s – the fundamental shift in the Norwegian economy 1 – resulted in more efficient markets. Over the past few years, we have reaped the benefits of the measures implemented then.

It will lay down minimum standards for banks to hold some resiliently liquid assets and about the funding of illiquid assets. To date, much more prominent has been the work on capital. Although there has been some dilution of the proposals from a few months ago, real substantive progress is being made in reforming the minimum standards and in introducing various buffers, taking into account credit cycle conditions and the circumstances of SIFIs. The key element of the overall package is that “capital” will mean capital. The world of hybrid instruments – pretending to be so-called capital instruments but which in fact cannot truly absorb losses in a going concern – should become more or less a thing of the past. The Bank of England would like it to be completely consigned to the past. Only equity can absorb losses. For that reason, in calculating regulatory capital, deductions from capital should really be from equity. As part of the emerging compromise, there will be some derogations from that, but the derogations should be transparent. Markets should learn to evaluate bank’s capital adequacy on the basis of what is made transparent about the makeup of that capital. The other really key change will come in stages – partly in the package this autumn and partly during next year and beyond – which is reducing the pernicious regulatory arbitrage that has existed between “banking book” capital requirements and “trading book” capital requirements.
The global expansion has also resulted in high prices for many Norwegian export goods. The increase in oil prices over the past 4-5 years has been very important. High oil prices over a longer period have  BIS Review 28/2007  3  boosted oil investments and there are prospects that the high investment level will be sustained in the coming years. Oil prices peaked around USD 75 per barrel in summer 2006. Later in autumn, prices fell. Current futures prices indicate that market participants believe prices will remain above USD 60 per barrel in the coming years. A fall in prices in a number of commodity markets at the beginning of 2007 raised the question of whether the pronounced price rise of recent years was being reversed. The experience of previous commodity price cycles indicates that rising prices gradually lead to increased supply and reduced demand. This in turn leads to a fall in prices. Following a long period of expansion, international financial markets were marked by unrest around the end of February. It is still too early to say whether the turbulence signals a weakening of global growth prospects. Increased integration of China, India and other emerging economies into world trade, in conjunction with lower tariffs and reduced trade barriers, has led to a decline in prices for imported finished goods. This effect has been strengthened by a significant increase in the share of imports from low-cost countries.

In my remarks today, I would like to expand on three points. First, I want to show how a very severe double dip crisis required the ECB to deploy unconventional instruments to ensure price stability. And our measures are proving effective: incoming data confirm that the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy is becoming increasingly solid and that downside risks have further diminished. Second, I will discuss the possible side effects of these measures. I will consider the different dimensions in which our monetary policy affects people’s finances and welfare, which are sometimes overlooked in the current debate. Finally, I will outline why the ECB cannot be the only actor contributing to the recovery. Other economic, financial and fiscal policies are essential to ensure a sustained recovery. Recovering from the crisis: the role of monetary policy Let me start by recalling where we came from. The Great Recession, as it is called, resulted in a protracted period of low inflation and low growth. Specifically, the euro area faced two interlinked and successive crises – a financial crisis in 2008 and a sovereign debt crisis that started to emerge in 2011 and derailed the rebound. The recovery that began in mid-2013 lost steam in the summer of 2014 as the external environment became more uncertain. At the beginning of 2014, credit growth was contracting at an annual pace of more than 3%, while overall economic growth was stalling.
In January, the Bank forecast that inflation would average 2.6 percent between 1997 and 1998, and 2.3 percent in the course of the year. It seems clear that inflation during the first quarter of this year has been lower than expected in January. Government Finances In 1997, the Treasury recorded a welcome surplus of 1.3 billion kronur on a cash basis despite tax cuts, a rise in the wage bill and special interest payments associated with government bond redemptions. In order to compare the outcome with the budget it is necessary to exclude the special interest payments of 3.5 billion kronur. Thus adjusted, the Treasury’s surplus was 4.7 billion kronur. A Treasury surplus had not been recorded since 1984. On an accrual basis, which includes accrued interest and pension liabilities, the Treasury’s finances appear to have been close to balance in 1997. The Treasury repaid debt during the year. Amortization of foreign debt exceeded new borrowing by 6.5 billion kronur, or the equivalent of 5 percent of the Treasury’s foreign debt; this marked the first time since 1986 that amortization of foreign debt exceeded new borrowing. Domestically, new borrowing exceeded amortization by 3.4 billion kronur. While this turnaround in the Treasury’s finances is certainly to be welcomed, it is, nonetheless, a somewhat mixed blessing.

Compared to our framework for things like capital, liquidity and accountability, the regulatory framework for operational resilience is thoroughly under-developed not only here in the UK but also internationally. This matters more than it used to for a number of reasons, but let me pick out two. First, the emergence of cyber-attacks is a clear and present danger to the financial system which our forebears simply did not have to worry about. And second, as more and more of us access banks and insurance companies digitally, with a major programme of bank branch closures in full swing, and in the age of social media where problems become very visible very quickly, operational failures hurt more than they used to. For the same reasons the Treasury Select Committee is rightly taking a strong interest in this topic. 1  £ as at year-end 2017 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  We therefore published during the summer – jointly between the PRA, FCA and Bank as supervisor of market infrastructure – a discussion paper proposing a new framework for thinking about these issues. The central idea is a simple one: how much operational disruption to key business services should firms, the PRA, the FCA, and the wider Bank of England be prepared to tolerate? We call this ‘impact tolerance’. The focus of our future policy will be on the continuity of the business services that a firm’s customers and the wider economy rely upon.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The adaptation of the Spanish economy to the euro was incomplete Turning now to the Spanish economy, our adaptation to the new rules of play derived from, or imposed by, monetary union has been insufficient and belated. Our membership of the euro area compelled us to desist from long-established practices among economic agents who regarded exchange rate devaluation as the “normal” means of resolving the problems of competitiveness caused by inflation and did not consider fiscal discipline as vital for maintaining economic growth. True, in the years before we joined the euro area, we took steps to adjust economic policy rules to a low-inflation environment and set in train some reforms so it would function more flexibly. Two factors were particularly important in achieving this goal. First, the anchoring of inflation expectations, which required fulfilment of the price stability convergence criteria. And second, in the area of budgetary policy, the enactment in 2011 of an initial Stability Law laying the foundations for preventing excessive budget deficits. The transition to Monetary Union was also easier because the peseta/euro conversion rate agreed in 1999 was quite competitive as a result of the devaluations which had taken place between 1992 and 1995 during the functioning of the European Monetary System. However, those devaluations were a clear sign of the difficulties awaiting countries that make exchange rate commitments if these are not accompanied by price and cost discipline.

It would therefore reduce the likelihood of sharper adjustments ultimately taking place in the housing market, the influence of which on the overall working of the economy cannot be understated. For a sounder functioning of the complex markets for land and housing, at least two groups of measures would be required. On one hand, those aimed at influencing the determinants of house prices and, in particular, the regulations and practices restricting the supply of land. And on the other, those intended to correct the distortions behind the marked bias in the Spanish market towards owner-occupied as opposed to rented housing. With regard to the financial system, the year 2002 was, once again, a particularly complicated one. Adding to the usual effects any economic slowdown and correction of excesses built up in upturns will involve were other factors, including most notably corporate and accounting shortcomings of a structural nature, which have undermined the very institutional foundations of markets. This crisis of confidence was exceptional due above all to the doubts cast on elements as fundamental as the recording of transactions at listed companies, the veracity of information provided to investors, conflicts of interest within companies and between these and their main financial agents or auditors, and the most elementary mechanisms of corporate governance. Within this complex picture, two positive features should be underscored.
Ardian Fullani: Agreement between the Bank of Albania and the Competition Authority Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding, Tirana, 17 July 2007. *  *  *  Dear participants, I am pleased to have concluded this co-operation agreement between the Bank of Albania and the Competition Authority. In observance of the legal responsibilities of the institutions we represent, this agreement concludes the formal basis for cooperative efforts, in terms of achieving the objective of enhancing the competition conditions, in which the banking and financial activity is being conducted. Fair competition promotes the efficiency in the banking business and refines the composition and the functioning of the banking market, by providing significant services to clients and the public at large, being users of banking and financial services. It has been for some years now that the Albanian economy and the financial system are in an intensive process of integration into the regional economies and markets. This process requires the improvement of the legal and regulative framework for developing the business and the enhancement of the human and institutional capacities to cope with the challenges deriving from the economic openness and the enhancement of competition.

Considering this phase of economic development, it is essential that the regulatory authorities of financial markets and their institutions establish transparent and non-discriminative conditions for conducting business and moreover, develop necessary instruments to identify and eliminate cases of abuse from the financial institutions in their relationships with the other market participants and the clients. According to this agreement, the Bank of Albania shall, in fulfilling its supervisory role and in co-operation with the Competition Authority, support the latter in identifying the behaviour of banks and non-bank financial institutions, which may distort competition and ultimately, maintain an unfair position in the market, set unreal prices for banking products and services and discriminate certain clients or part of the public. In such cases, the Bank of Albania will require the Competition Authority, to start an investigation procedure, according to the law provisions. On the other hand, the Bank of Albania will continue to ensure that the regulatory framework and the supervisory practices remain transparent and provide to all entities meeting the law requirements equal terms for conducting banking and financial activity. In the context of this co-operation, the Bank of Albania and the Competition Authority shall establish the format of formal information exchange, by observing the requirements of the law in terms of its quality and characteristics. Understandably, we have taken only one step along a very long process, which requires its consistency in practice, as well. It is crucial that the importance of this agreement be fully comprehended by the staff of both institutions.
It contains a commitment, for example, to reduce the burden of public sector expenditure on the productive areas of the economy, and targets a 6 percent reduction this year. It also provides new incentives for investment in R&D by the private sector and more generous allocations for the development of industrial areas. As far as the labour market is concerned, new training and placement programmes are envisaged for persons who lack skills and for the long-term unemployed, especially those interested in setting up their own business. There are also plans to establish a register for those seeking part-time employment, along with incentives that should encourage a greater take up of temporary employment as well as labour market participation after pension age. In the education sector, a wide range of measures are envisaged aimed at improving the quality of education. There are also plans to offer land to international educational institutions interested in developing campuses in Malta. This year will also see a record amount of funds allocated for higher education, including for the creation of an ICT faculty, the modernisation of science and engineering laboratories and additional investment in e-learning facilities. In this same area, a new ICT strategy has been launched which aims to establish Malta among the top ten Smart Islands by 2010. The strategy aims at improving further the ICT infrastructure, the diffusion of next generation applications and at creating the right environment for large projects that are in the pipeline, including the Smart City by Tecom Investments of Dubai.

This stability is underscored by our latest quarterly consumer credit panel data, which shows that total household debt burdens have remained relatively low by national standards and that mortgage delinquency rates are lower in the Syracuse region than in other parts of the state and nation. However, while the national recovery has started to gain some momentum in recent months, job growth in Syracuse has remained somewhat weak. To date, the region has regained only about a third of the roughly 13,000 jobs that were lost during the downturn. So the recovery has been disappointing thus far. Despite the weak overall job growth, the region continues to undergo substantial economic restructuring. And, in fact, many parts of the economy are growing. Most prominently, the business services sector has added about 2,000 jobs since the recession ended, and the leisure and hospitality sector has also expanded. As a result of the economic restructuring in Syracuse, health and education are now among the most important industries in the region, employing roughly a fifth of all workers. While the “eds and meds” sector experienced some job losses last year, it is generally less susceptible to downturns than other sectors of the economy, and expanded before, during and after the Great Recession. No doubt, the area’s many local colleges and universities play an important role in this regard. Syracuse’s colleges and universities deserve special attention because they are important regional assets that can help Syracuse continue to actively participate in the knowledge economy.
And we must not lose sight of our collective values regarding individuals’ right to privacy. Before concluding, I would like to add a few words about Brexit. The French authorities are mobilised and committed to making Paris a leading destination for insurance undertakings. The ACPR has taken the lead with an English-language fast-track authorisation. We are holding serious and discrete discussions with various business prospects. The recent announcement by the American group Chubb, the United States’ leading property and casualty insurer, of its intention to transfer its operations to Paris demonstrates that our expertise in supervision in particular is a recognised asset. But mobilising must not mean abandoning our high standards and requirements, and Brexit cannot be an opportunity for British entities to simply set up empty shell corporations in Europe, mere company name plates, while keeping their resources in the United Kingdom. In this respect, I fully agree with the vigilance called for by EIOPA. And lastly, Brexit also brings with it certain risks, and consequently the need for contingency plans: I am thinking particularly of the French policyholders who took out insurance directly with British undertakings, and by way of symmetry, the French undertakings with commitments in the United Kingdom. Beyond what the insurance sector can do for our economy, I would like to conclude by telling you what we can do for you.

That said, the trend going forward is less favourable, calling for mobilisation  2.1  Three factors are currently raising concerns  Despite the quality of this snapshot for 2018, the outlook – the medium/long-term trend – calls for vigilance and mobilisation. Three factors are effectively weighing on the profitability of both French and European banks. The first two mainly concern retail banking: continuing low interest rates and digitalisation. The maintenance of a low interest rate environment is completely justified and necessary in light of the economic situation in the euro area. However, it is also squeezing net interest margins for retail banks, which finance themselves with deposits and not at variable rates in the market, as well as reducing returns on insurers’ investments. In the case of banks in particular, the issue should certainly not be ignored, but we also need to avoid blowing it out of proportion by claiming it is the only factor weighing on euro area bank profits. On April 10 the Governing Council explicitly said: “In the context of our regular assessment, we will also consider whether the preservation of the favourable implications of negative interest rates for the economy requires the mitigation of their possible side effects, if any, on bank intermediation.”ii Let’s allow time for this work to be done and for the necessary decision to be taken.
In May of 1995, the OTS approved the application of a new thrift, the Security First Network Bank (“SFNB”), that sought explicitly to provide the majority of its electronic banking services over the Internet.5 In May of 1996, the Board of Governors approved the application of SFNB’s parent, a bank holding company, for SFNB to acquire a data-processing firm specializing in data processing activities that would provide nationwide banking and financial services over the Internet.6 In December of 1996, the Board of Governors approved the application of a Minnesota bank holding company and two foreign banks to join a consortium of 15 North 4  Alan Greenspan, Banking in the Global Marketplace, address before the Federation of Bankers Associations of Japan (Nov. 18, 1996). 5  See OTS Order No. 95-88 (May 8, 1995). See Cardinal Bancshares, Inc., 82 Fed. Res. Bull. 674 (1996). In this Board Order, the Board stated that “The Board believes the provision of computer banking services by SFNB to its customers in accordance with the authority granted by the OTS, and as specifically described in this proposal, is consistent with Cardinal’s existing authority under the [Bank Holding Company Act] and Regulation Y to operate a savings association.” Id. at n.1.

In 1996, when the Board of Governors issued its proposed regulations concerning the applicability of Regulation E to stored-value cards, the Board of Governors explicitly requested that commenters to the proposed revisions indicate whether the commenters believed that part or all of Regulation E should apply to electronic “money” or “value” residing on a computer system or a personal-computer hard drive.12 Similarly, the FDIC, while holding public hearings on its General Counsel Opinion No. 8 on stored-value cards and Federal deposit insurance coverage,13 specifically requested additional commentary on Federal deposit insurance coverage and electronic value represented on computer systems or personal computers. I believe the message is clear: as bank supervisors, we are open to what the banking community has to say on this rapidly evolving market. New ideas and reasoned arguments are welcome. We must try not to restrain important new services developed by the banking industry but should remain vigilant as banking-type services are offered by nonbank institutions. A Payments Systems Overseer’s View From the perspective of a payments system overseer, I see much activity, but thus far, few genuinely revolutionary innovations with respect to banking and the Internet in the United States. Mainly, I see the application of faster, cheaper electronic processing of older, more established paper-based methods of transferring payments between parties. Credit card payments on the Internet are one example.