samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Further, the major advantage for the Spanish economy that maintaining a comparatively low public debt/GDP ratio entails should be preserved. Watchfulness will also be needed to prevent current expenditure overruns that reduce the leeway available to undertake public investment programmes and fulfil other productive expenditure commitments made in the Budget. We should not forget that when public overspending occurs, the subsequent adjustment usually falls on productive spending and, most particularly, on public investment, with adverse consequences for long-term growth potential. In the current circumstances, moreover, having some scope to carry out the infrastructure investment plans under way is crucial for smoothing the adjustment in the construction sector. The State Budget should, in my view, comply with these premises. But the regional and local governments also have a major role to play in this task, since they account for a most significant portion of public spending – and, in particular, of public investment – and are facing a phase of rapid decline in their revenue-raising capacity. Elsewhere, a worrying aspect of the scenario I have described is the speed and intensity of the response by employment, which is amplifying the effect of the correction of the housing sector on the rest of the economy. This reveals the persistence of inadequacies in the workings of factor and product markets that mean that the weight of the adjustment falls on the level of employment, hindering the necessary reallocation of productive factors across sectors.

The far-reaching changes in the Spanish economy in recent decades have equipped it with the wherewithal to overcome this difficult stage and to subsequently resume a path of sustained growth, allowing convergence to continue. But if these factors are to operate, the authorities and all agents must face up to the current circumstances and make the required efforts, and economic policies must prevent any slippage and enable the factors conducive to the resumption of sustained growth to come into play. Naturally, I shall focus today on the diagnosis of the situation of the Spanish economy and on its economic policy implications. But these would both be incomplete without some, albeit brief, reference to the deterioration of the international setting and to the economic outlook in the euro area which, as you know, will determine monetary policy developments. Last year, the growth of the world economy reached 5%. The forecasts available for this year, however, place the figure below 4%, with scarcely any scope for the start of a recovery in 2009. Moreover, any recovery will be moderate, slow and subject to a degree of uncertainty fuelled, among other developments, by a rise in major inflationary pressures in most economies. In my view, there are three basic factors behind this deterioration of the global economic situation. The first is the adverse behaviour of the US economy, weighted down by the continuing decline in its real estate sector, which is depressing household and investor confidence.
I see commitment to this basic “blocking and tackling” as essential to financial institutions’ continuing to be competitive – and relevant – in the digital world. While the legacy issues need to be addressed in the near-term and quickly, we can’t hold off on addressing the vast number of issues around cyber – since cyber is upon us now. Information technology and cybersecurity The area where I will spend most of my time discussing today is cybersecurity. Suffice it to say that as I think about the kinds of risks that might cause the next crisis, cybersecurity is the one that worries me the most. While I will focus my remarks on the financial sector, my concern is not limited to the financial sector. This is much bigger than just banks or financial institutions; it includes many other sectors as well. As it relates to the financial industry in particular, the interconnectedness of firms continues to pose a particular risk to financial stability; from trading systems to settlement activities, we are at risk of a major disruption to financial stability. During the last financial crisis, we began to get a glimpse into the challenges faced as a result of interconnectedness and systemic failures. Years later, we are still faced with some of the same challenges, with only a limited view into the true complexities behind how firms are linked, connected, and ultimately intertwined to form the fabric of the financial industry.

Caleb M Fundanga: Growing investor confidence in Zambia’s economy Opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Afreximbank/PTA Bank Financing Agreements Signing Ceremony, Lusaka, 10 June 2008. *  *  *  • The President of AFREXIM Bank • The President of PTA Bank • Chief Executives and representatives of Financial Institutions Present • Distinguished ladies and gentlemen I am greatly honoured to be given an opportunity to make these brief remarks at this signing ceremony of two important financing agreements. I wish to extend a warm welcome to all of you gathered here today, particularly those who have travelled from outside the country. I hope that you will not only have a pleasant ceremony today but also have fruitful deliberations at the Euromoney Conferences starting tomorrow at this same venue. I also hope you will find time to explore the beautiful scenery and experience the warm hospitality that Zambia has to offer. Mr President, Ladies and Gentlemen, over the recent past, the Zambian economy has performed relatively well. This is reflected in the overall macroeconomic stability which has been underpinned by positive growth rates in real Gross Domestic Product, low inflation, relative stability in the exchange rate of the Kwacha against major currencies, stable financial sector and improved banking services. However, although incomes have generally increased, the challenge that still remains is that of meeting the basic needs of the majority of Zambians in order to uplift their living standards.
And the reason I am doing so now is that it may be a good starting point for distinguishing what monetary policy may achieve in the short and long run. We can note already that the policy areas I recently mentioned concern politics in a broad sense and not monetary policy. It is thus not monetary policy that can affect these most fundamental conditions for long-term growth. One illustration of monetary policy’s limited potential to affect employment in the long term is the disparate regional developments in one and the same country. In Sweden, for instance, there are large regional differences in employment levels, despite monetary policy being the same for all regions. These differences appear to be lasting, which might indicate that they are due to underlying, structural factors that are beyond the control of monetary policy. However, monetary policy can affect the conditions for long-term growth on one very essential point, namely by keeping inflation close to the target and inflation expectations anchored around the target. If inflation deviates from the target the Riksbank’s aim is normally to bring it back on target within a couple of years. Depending on how large the deviation is and its cause, the time horizon may be extended. This flexibility makes it possible for the Riksbank to take into account developments in the real economy in its monetary policy considerations. In the short term, monetary policy can contribute to reducing the fluctuations in production and employment that arise during an economic cycle.

Kalin Hristov: Monetary unions in history Welcome remarks by Mr Kalin Hristov, Deputy Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the Conference “Monetary Unions in History”, jointly organised by the Bulgarian National Bank and the European Association for Banking and Financial History (eabh) e.V., Sofia, 1 July 2022. * * * Dear Members of the Association, Dear conference participants, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is an honour to welcome you to this conference which the Bulgarian National Bank organises in cooperation with the European Association for Banking and Financial History. I am also delighted to have this event, together with yesterday’s workshop on the “Digital rebirth of historical datasets”, taking place in Sofia alongside the annual meeting of the Association. This year marks twenty years since the Bulgarian National Bank became a member of the Association; this is the first time, however, that an annual meeting and events of the Association are hosted in Bulgaria. Let me, therefore, extend words of gratitude for the excellent cooperation with the Association regarding the organisation of this series of events. The Bulgarian National Bank is one of the oldest central banks in the world, thirteenth by order of its establishment in 1879. Our institution has understandably cultivated a profound respect for banking and financial history, as seen from our topical publications and research projects we take part in. For us history is also vibrantly present today – exactly twenty-five years ago, 1 July 1997 was the day of introduction of the currency board in Bulgaria.
Niklaus Blattner: The demographic challenge – macroeconomic perspectives Summary of a speech by Mr Niklaus Blattner, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Conference "Die alternde Gesellschaft als sozio-ökonomische Herausforderung" (the aging society: a socio-economic challenge), University of Basel, Basel, 9 February 2007. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  Demographic aging, i.e. the growing average age of the population, or the reversal of the age pyramid, is also a matter of concern for a central bank. Without a careful analysis of the long-term developments in the real economy, any monetary policy assessment, and consequently any inflation forecast, will be inadequate. In addition to the activities in the money and capital markets, the longterm growth outlook – and thus also the population perspectives – are factored into the Swiss National Bank's monetary policy assessment. The aging of the population is a fact. It is linked to three main trends, which will greatly influence Switzerland's demographic landscape in the decades to come: first, the economically active population will decrease, second, the old-age ratio, i.e. the ratio of people over 65 to those between 20 and 64 is on the rise, and third, longevity is increasing. In future, Switzerland will have to produce more with fewer resources. "Fewer resources" because the economically active population is declining, "produce more" because the old-age ratio is worsening and longevity increasing.

Both commercial property prices and housing prices have risen substantially for many years and although we have been able to see that the rates of increase have slowed down slightly in recent months, they are still high. I believe that property prices may well continue rising at a fairly high rate over the coming period. But in the slightly longer term such a rapid increase is not sustainable. Why is the Riksbank interested in the property market? The fact that the Riksbank is interested in what is happening in the property market is based on the tasks we have been given by the Swedish Parliament. One is that we shall ensure that inflation is kept at a reasonable level, more precisely at two per cent a year. The other is that we shall safeguard the stability of the financial system. The way the property market develops can have significance for both of these tasks. Property often functions as collateral for the loans the banks grant to households and companies. If the properties are not reasonably valued; if prices have been pushed up through exaggerated optimism or speculation, there is a risk of a heavy price fall. During the crisis of the 1990s it was falling property prices, particularly office premises, that were the cause of major losses for the Swedish banks. Developments in the property market can also affect activity in the real economy. For instance, rising house prices reduce households’ loans in relation to the value of their assets.
Ajith Nivard Cabraal: Overview of financial and economic developments in Sri Lanka Keynote address by Mr Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at the Opening of the Financial Services Academy at the Centre for Banking Studies, Rajagiriya, 5 March 2007. *  *  *  Ladies and Gentlemen: Today we all have gathered here to witness an important step towards the development of the financial landscape and knowledge pool of the country, the establishment of the Financial Services Academy, a landmark organization that we hope, would shape the future of our financial services industry. As we know, the Sri Lankan economy recorded a growth of 7.8 per cent in the first three quarters of 2006 and according to current available data, it is very likely that the economic growth in 2006 would be well over 7 per cent. This will be the highest since 1978. Towards such growth, the contribution of the services sector was easily the highest and of such high growth sector, the growth in financial services was highly significant. It is therefore widely acknowledged that the contribution of the financial sector for the achievement of growth of the country is enormous, and whatever we do in that connection, would be of overall immense value. The developments in the financial sector also helps the economic growth through several other channels as well: It improves the efficiency of business processes, attracts investment, reduces unemployment and enhances access to finance, to name a few.

2/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  There is also uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments and the impact on the supply side if events on the ground worsen and they create further energy and commodity price shocks and disruptions. In such case, inflation and output would be worse than projected in 2023 and 2024. On the other hand, if there is an improvement in geopolitics, energy prices may fall as rapidly as they rose. Therefore monetary policy has to act in the middle of a lot of uncertainty in a number of areas, hence monitoring and pacing is still very important. Domestic economic developments Let me now turn to domestic economic developments. The Cyprus economy, continued to record noteworthy GDP growth, despite the outbreak of the war. Real GDP growth in Cyprus expanded by about 6 percent during the first half of 2022, mainly driven by a faster than expected recovery in tourism-related activities and, to a lesser extent, by growth in information and communication activities and in professional services. At the same time, weakness in the Cyprus GDP performance could be expected to become visible towards the end of 2022 and the first half of 2023, primarily owing to the anticipated worsening in the international economic outlook, which also has an impact on the domestic developments. For 2023, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.5 per cent. In terms of inflation, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reached 9 percent in September 2022 compared with 3.6 percent in September 2021.
Caleb M Fundanga: An appeal to the Zambian microfinance industry to offer affordable financial services Opening speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the 8th Annual General Meeting of the Association of Microfinance Institutions of Zambia, Lusaka, 7 July 2006. *  *  *  •  The Chairperson;  •  Senior Government Officials present;  •  His Excellencies, member of the diplomatic corps present;  •  Members of the Association of Microfinance Institutions of Zambia (AMIZ);  •  Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen  It gives me great pleasure and gratitude to be amongst you this afternoon to officiate at the 8th Annual General Meeting of the Association of Microfinance Institutions in Zambia. Mr Chairperson, as you are aware, micro-lenders are credit providers to people with limited or no access to traditional credit sources. It follows therefore that the primary impact of microfinance in Zambia has been the broadening of access to formalised financial services particularly to many people both in urban and peri-urban areas. The microfinance sector in Zambia has grown rapidly in recent years in terms of the number of service providers as well as outreach which is currently estimated at over 60,000 persons.

Before I conclude, allow me to mention one area of concern not only to the microfinance sector, but the entire financial sector in general, and that is money laundering. In the absence of effective cooperation among the various players in the financial sector, there will be no realistic change of defeating or significantly curbing money laundering. It is therefore imperative that the microfinance sector becomes more alert and report suspected cases of money laundering to the Anti-Money Laundering Investigations Unit for corrective action. Money laundering, if left unchecked can erode the integrity of our financial system. Ladies and Gentlemen, in conclusion I wish to state that the Bank of Zambia is committed to the development of a robust financial sector in Zambia, and I would therefore like in this particular instance, to call upon the microfinance industry to play its role effectively by expanding its outreach so that more poor people can have access to financial services. I implore you to discuss issues openly and now declare this 8th Annual General Meeting of AMIZ officially opened. Thank you and God bless you. 2  BIS Review 72/2006
As the member responsible for monetary policy preparations, I am in a position to influence discussions and decisions, apart from those at Board meetings, mainly as chairman of the internal monetary policy group that is made up of leading members of the Bank’s competent departments. Matters on the monetary policy agenda are discussed by this group on a continuous basis. In the light of that discussion, at Board meetings I also present proposals about the direction of policy. However, all the members of the group attend Board meetings and are able to present their own views. The arrangements we have chosen for internal discussions and preparations build on experiences at other central banks. A proposal for the approach we have used since autumn 1999 was drafted by some of us after talks with colleagues at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve. There are some important differences, however. The officials who prepare the Board’s material are in a stronger position compared with other central banks. We ask them to produce a comprehensive assessment of inflation independently, whereas in the Bank of England, for instance, the counterpart to our Executive Board is involved in this work. And at neither the Bank of England nor the ECB are staff present at policy meetings. In other central banks, moreover, before the preparatory material is presented to the counterpart to our Executive Board, it has to be approved by the competent board member. So in all these respects our internal process is very open.

We care about the health and stability of the tri-party repo market both because of our interest in promoting stable and liquid financial markets and because we use it to implement monetary policy. The recent financial crisis showed us that the tri-party repo market was inherently unstable due to deficiencies in the settlement infrastructure. Prior to 2008, there was limited recognition of the ways in which adverse developments in this market could quickly transmit risk to other parts of the financial system with unforeseen consequences. We now know, with the benefit of hindsight, that the market was overly reliant on massive extensions of intraday credit by the clearing banks to the broker-dealers, that market participants did not adequately appreciate the magnitude of the risk embedded in the role played by the clearing banks, and, as a result, market participants underpriced risk in ways that undermined the market’s resiliency during periods of stress. These vulnerabilities were made apparent in the spring of 2008 when the events surrounding Bear Stearns demonstrated the run risk that existed more broadly in the tri-party repo market, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene in order to restore confidence and market functioning. This intervention took the form of the creation of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility in March 2008, and a subsequent expansion of the facility in September 2008. The scope and scale of the market disruption were clearly very troublesome.
The structural dimension addresses the concentration of risk and interlinking The structural (or cross-sectional dimension) relates to how the concentration of risk and the links between different parts of the financial system at any given time affect the risk of a crisis hitting the system as whole. I have already discussed the links between financial institutions and the contagion risks these entail. Existing and newly-invented tools have been proposed and applied to deal with these structural risks. The former include stricter capital adequacy requirements and limits on activities and exposures. The newly-invented tools include plans to manage banks in crisis (so-called recovery and resolution plans), liquidity requirements and special capital adequacy requirements for institutions that are deemed to be systemically important. Work is underway within the framework of the Basel Committee to identify globally systemically important banks which will be subject to stricter capital adequacy requirements. The Swedish authorities’ demand for a higher level of capital adequacy in our major Swedish banks is of course an example of the same thinking. The cyclical dimension addresses risk management over time The cyclical dimension (also referred to as the dynamic dimension or the time dimension) relates to how risks in the system as a whole can develop over time. The crisis and the period preceding it clearly illustrate the tendencies towards exaggerated cyclical behaviour that often characterise the financial markets. The demand for loans usually increases during periods of strong growth, and the perception of risk often appears to weaken.

8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  have been able to keep risk weights low, which has meant that they have not had to maintain so much equity. New frameworks are being established on the basis of these insights. Here, I will briefly explain what Basel III – the new regulatory framework for the banks – entails. I will also briefly discuss the thinking behind macroprudential policy, which has become something of an in-word in recent years. Basel III increases demands on the banks The most important areas of the global Basel III Accord deal with the quantitative demands for capital and liquidity being placed on the banks. The banks are to have sufficient equity… As financial crises can lead to considerable losses, the Basel Committee maintains that the banks need substantial resilience. So capital requirements are being increased in Basel III, above all for Common Equity Tier 1.10 The minimum requirement for the banks’ equity is being set at 4.5 per cent of risk-weighted assets – more than double the requirement under Basel II. A capital conservation buffer of 2.5 per cent, added to a counter-cyclical buffer, has created a stronger shock absorber than previously existed. I will return to the counter-cyclical buffer when I discuss macroprudential policy. The capital adequacy requirement can also be complemented with a pure gross solvency measure, meaning that equity may not fall below 3 per cent of total assets.