samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
Second, the euro area is experiencing a protracted recession and growth in many of the largest emerging economies has slowed. This has resulted in a very sharp slowing of U.S. exports, with an associated slowing in production and employment growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Thus, I continue to see the economy as being in a tug-of-war between fiscal drag and underlying fundamental improvement, with a great deal of uncertainty over which force will prevail in the near-term. This tug-of-war is clearly seen in the monthly employment data. Over April and May, the average monthly gain in employment in the private service-providing sector has been well maintained at 175,000. In contrast, employment in the manufacturing sector and the federal government declined a combined 20,000 per month. And the resulting uncertainty is, I believe, an important contributing factor behind the relatively sluggish pace of business investment spending. My best guess is that growth for all of 2013, measured on a Q4/Q4 basis, will be about what it has been since the end of the recession. But I believe a strong case can be made that the pace of growth will pick up notably in 2014. The private sector of the economy should continue to heal, while the amount of fiscal drag will begin to subside. I also see some indications that growth prospects among our major trading partners have begun to improve; for example, the rise in the June euro area composite Purchasing Managers’ Index.

However, growth in New York State has slowed, and Puerto Rico’s economy is not faring well at all; the activity index produced by the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico shows that the Island’s economy has yet to show any signs of bottoming out. The job situation has varied somewhat across our region. Improvement has generally been broad-based, with New York City and Long Island doing particularly well, though Puerto Rico continues to weaken. Both Connecticut and New Jersey have recently been growing roughly in line with the nation thus far in 2013. Unemployment rates across the region are roughly matching the national rate, with the exception of the relatively high rate that has characterized Puerto Rico’s labor market for some time. Housing continues to be a focus of our regional monitoring efforts and home prices in our region appear to have bottomed. Our economists will elaborate on these points this morning. Are recent college graduates finding good jobs? The special topic of today’s press briefing is a look at how well recent college graduates are faring in the job market, both nationally and here in our region. A college education represents an important investment in one’s human capital, meaning the knowledge and skills people build. Historically, it’s been pretty clear that those who’ve invested in a college education have tended to earn a sizeable economic return. And the benefits of collegeeducated citizens go well beyond the individual.
The central banks became independent during a period that one might be able to call the “golden age” of inflation targeting, when everything looked relatively straightforward – when the policy rate was in principle set to attain price stability and when one took financial stability more or less for granted. The world that now appears to be emerging is more complicated. It is necessary to reconsider where the boundary lines should be drawn between what should be delegated to independent central banks and what should be managed by the political system. Finding the best way of doing this is one of the major challenges ahead of us. 17  See Gerlach (2013). Results from a study by Bech, Gambacorta and Kharroubi (2012) indicate that monetary policy is less efficient when it comes to counteracting a recession and contributing to a recovery after a financial crisis. Posen (2013) says that more powerful quantitative easing would have facilitated the recovery in the United Kingdom, but that the fact that this was not implemented has nothing to do with inflation targeting and it would not have been easier with a different type of monetary policy. 18  See, for example, Banerjee, Cecchetti and Hofmann (2013). Whelan (2013) says that inflation targeting should actually be abandoned in favour of a solution where the central banks are given a broader mandate and more instruments at their disposal.

It remains to be seen how well they will succeed and how confidence in the central bank as an independent institution will be affected, as well as what consequences this might have. Independence not a given – the central bank may also need to adapt I think that it is important that the central bank never takes its independence for granted. It should always ask the question of whether the policy it conducts can be expected to result in the economic development that was aimed at when the central bank was granted its independence. An important part of this is, of course, that the central bank does its best to attain the objectives it has been allocated. But another part, which has perhaps not received as much attention, is that the central bank must also take into account fundamental changes in the economy that may make it necessary to adapt its behaviour. There could be many examples of changes in the functioning of the economy that could trigger such a need to adapt. But let me illustrate what I mean with an example that has been highlighted, for instance, in the IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook. A slightly surprising observation in recent years is that inflation has not fallen very much during the recession connected to the financial crisis, despite a dramatic fall in demand in many countries and a sharp rise in unemployment. The contrast in relation to earlier economic downturns, when inflation fell much more, is fairly surprising.
This can sorely test the coordination of the exchange of information and the decision making. The Swedish bank’s substantial activities abroad have therefore meant that the Riksbank has entered into a number of agreements on cooperation in the event of financial crises with the central banks in the other Nordic countries and in the Baltic states. There is now also an overall agreement on crisis management at EU level – a Memorandum of Understanding, MoU. This covers central banks, supervisory authorities and finance ministries in all of the member states. Agreements of this nature are valuable because they create orderly forms for cooperation. They create necessary contact networks and not least a common parlance, which can be of great importance when managing a crisis. But these MoUs also have shortcomings. They are often worded in a vague and general manner and are not usually legally binding; more a declaration of intent. But the most serious deficiency is that they do not take into account the conflicts between national interests which may arise in a crisis situation. These should be added to all of the other conflicts which may arise between different interested parties and authorities with different objectives. Conflicts between national interests can be particularly prominent if the socioeconomic costs of a crisis in a cross-border institution are unevenly or unreasonably distributed between different countries. This could in some situations affect the willingness to contribute constructively to an overall solution of the crisis.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam: Update on the Singaporean economy Statement by Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, delivered at the MAS Annual Report 2000/2001 media conference in Singapore on 12 July 2001. * 1  *  *  Introduction  MAS has had an eventful year, shaping monetary policy in a challenging and uncertain environment and continuing to liberalise and enhance standards in the financial sector. 2  Monetary policy  In January this year, MAS decided to maintain the existing exchange rate policy stance of allowing a modest appreciation of the trade-weighted Singapore dollar within an unchanged policy band. This policy was aimed at capping medium-term inflationary pressures, while continuing to be supportive of economic activity as growth came off its cyclical high and moderated to a slower pace. Economic activity slowed much more in the first half of 2001 than was expected, causing market sentiment to shift against the Singapore dollar. Strong demand for US dollars to fund merger and acquisition activities by domestic corporates, and a strengthening of the US dollar against the major currencies, exerted further downward pressure on the Singapore dollar. The $ weakened over the period, from the top of the policy band at the start of the year to the lower half of the band at end June. This trend was consistent with the change in underlying economic and market conditions.
For instance, we at the Federal Reserve have gone to great lengths to ensure that barriers are in place to prevent Y2K problems with a Fedwire participant from causing problems on the Fedwire system itself. We are also now actively researching additional steps that the Federal Reserve could take to better prepare the financial markets as a whole to function in spite of disruptions at individual firms. It is also important to realize that contingency planning for Y2K is not solely an operational issue. Financial firms may seek to adopt a defensive posture in the marketplace well ahead of Monday, January 3, 2000 (the first business day of the new year in the United States). For example, market participants may seek to minimize the number of transactions that would be scheduled for settlement on January 3 or January 4, or that would require open positions to be maintained over the century date change weekend. Contingency planning involves a series of elements, many of which must be put in place well before January 2000. For example, we must consider many possible sources of disruption and determine what approaches could be available to limit the impact of each possible disruption. The sooner such thinking occurs, the more opportunity we have to plan around the possible disruptions. In this context, members of our External Consultative Committee noted that one of the key obstacles to effective contingency planning is the inability to list and consider all possible disruption scenarios.

26.06.2018  Taking up of office by the Governor of the Banco de España  Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor  Honourable Ministers and Authorities, ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues and friends, I believe today calls, above all, for a round of gratitude. First, I wish to thank Ministers Calviño and Montero for their presence here today. May they rest assured I am firmly committed to maintaining the close and loyal collaboration traditionally offered by the Banco de España to the Ministries for the Economy and Finance. I also wish to thank the previous minister, Román Escolano, for his presence at this ceremony, and for his proposal and defence of my appointment before the Parliamentary Committee for the Economy and Competitiveness. And my gratitude extends to the representatives of the Committee accompanying us today. I undertake to make every effort to improve the capacity of the Banco de España to face the challenges addressed during the Parliamentary Committee hearing. Ministers, as I am surrounded above all by colleagues, I trust you will allow me to continue in a more informal tone. As you know, including a three-year tour at the European Central Bank, I now have two decades behind me at the Banco de España. Professionally speaking, this is, then, my home. It is a real honour for me to have been appointed governor.
Takaful must shed its image as being an imitator, a follower or impersonator of conventional insurance. Takaful operators, including the financial groups to which they belong, must see beyond takaful as yet another line of insurance products. In this, we need the right leadership, shareholders included, to set the right tone from the senior leadership that takaful must offer distinctive benefits highly valued by all. Its impact must be lasting and profound. This is especially so in our system, where takaful is competing side by side with the insurance industry. 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  All this considered, allow me to suggest three priorities for the industry to embark on to realise the full potential of takaful: First, fulfill the promise of takaful in helping protect people and businesses. Takaful is derived from the Arabic word “kafal”, which means ‘to help’. To my mind, this calls for the industry to reach out beyond its comfort zone of focusing on mandatory products, such as motor and fire, or those that are easy to sell, namely mortgage related products. It must make serious inroads in other areas where protection gaps exist, such as in agricultural risk, annuity and trade credit. Something that is consistent with the needs of our economy. Ultimately, the industry must be ahead of the curve to innovate and deliver solutions that are truly needed and highly valued by customers, both individuals and businesses. In family takaful, the industry must position itself as a trusted and valued solution provider for all Malaysians.

When I was finalising my speech, I was told by my staff that the average turnaround time to process damage motor claims has increased by 10, from an already miserable record of 83 days. In the 19th century, Jules Verne wrote that anyone can travel around the world in 80 days. We can’t settle an insurance claim any earlier in the 21st century. Go figure. My own experience suggests that the turnaround time is the most important aspect of takaful operations that shapes the industry’s image in the eyes of the customer. The industry has to seriously look at this. It should relentlessly pursue changes in processes, rules and parameters that are necessary to improve the experience for customers. This requires creativity and persistence. The situation is not much better in the family takaful business, although we are putting in place the infrastructure to tackle this problem. The Bank, the insurance and takaful industry, and the National Registration Department will roll out a new, automated mechanism this year to expedite the process for claiming death benefits. With this, the industry will be better able to help those in their hour of need. The Bank, through the LIFE Framework and other initiatives, is determined to ensure that customers receive a fair deal. The recent implementation of the balanced scorecard will increase the professionalism of takaful intermediaries. It is now incumbent upon the industry to establish and maintain trust and goodwill with its customers.
We have also been conducting several initiatives to help raise awareness of the importance of this issue, including workshops and meetings with the industry to learn more about how the sector is coping with climate change. Despite all these efforts, there are still obstacles and methodological challenges to overcome. These include the longer and uncertain horizon that must be applied to assess these risks, and the finalisation of a common taxonomy enabling us to distinguish what is "green" and what is "brown". I am sure our outstanding speakers today will help us to shed light on these issues, and I look forward to the discussions this morning. As I mentioned earlier, the slogan of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP25, is “Time for Action is now”, so I believe it is time for me to stop talking and move to Lord Stern´s presentation. Thank you very much. 9  Single Supervisory Mechanism. 5/5

In yesterday’s tender offer, 30 of the 500 million dollars were awarded, which is evidence that the international liquidity problems are being properly managed by banks without having to resort to our credit lines. Notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Chile will continue to monitor the external financial conditions in order to mitigate the domestic impact of potentially bigger complications. From the inflationary standpoint, our latest Monetary Policy Report assumed that the international scenario would not contribute in any significant manner to reduce inflation. However, our risk scenario also assumed that a further deterioration of the world economy could not be ruled out, and we are seeing it today. Most likely, in the near future world growth projections will be significantly adjusted downward, helping to reduce inflationary pressures  1  As a function of the benchmark basket of the investment portfolio. BIS Review 123/2008  3  in the medium term. In addition, commodity prices have dropped recently, including a sharp reduction in the prices of oil and grains, especially wheat. Our objective and commitment is that annual inflation gradually converge, over a two-year period, to its 3% target, so monetary policy will continue to be oriented to complying with said objective. The potential inflationary consequences of events occurring internationally will be duly pondered. We have in place a flexible monetary policy that allows for gradual adjustments to both changing international conditions and domestic developments, strongly committed with inflation control, because low inflation ensures the necessary stability for sustained economic growth.
However, I personally thought there were a number of factors in the global economy that made the forecast unusually uncertain. Prior to the meeting in July, there had been considerable fluctuations in the financial markets, which were largely due to the uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will begin phasing out its quantitative easing. There was also uncertainty over what effects the problems in the Chinese banking sector would have on the Chinese economy and also, as has been the case for a long time now, over developments in the euro area. Economic developments in the euro area are still marked by the need for the private and public sectors to reduce their debt, which is a process that will of course take a long time. However, compared with one year ago, developments had been in the right direction in most of the problem countries and a number of measures had been taken that led to interest rates  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  falling to lower levels. Our assessment in July was based on the assumption that the reform process would continue and the forecast was that GDP growth in the euro area would remain weak but gradually increase. However, the slow recovery means that GDP will not reach the same level as prior to the decline in 2009 until 2015.

Starting with monetary policy, the primary aim at the current juncture is to strike the right balance between accommodating domestic recovery while ensuring stability in the long-term. As mentioned earlier, recent monetary policy actions were geared towards temporarily addressing risks to growth. In the context of a sharp contraction in economic 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  activity from the floods, moderating inflationary risks, and pronounced headwinds from the global economy, the MPC judged this to be most appropriate. Such policy actions have helped to shore up confidence and hasten the recovery process. However, with clearer signs of a pickup in economic activity and the recent rise in global oil prices, upside risks to inflation has become more elevated. It is unlikely though that inflation would accelerate to the extent that would threaten economic stability. Nonetheless, monetary policy will remain watchful as the pick-up in public and private spending and cost-side pressure stemming from various government stimulus packages may add extra inflationary pressure in the period ahead. From a longer-term perspective, let me reiterate our commitment to the inflation targeting framework. Since its adoption over 10 years ago, this framework has endowed monetary policy with a degree of flexibility and credibility that has proved extremely valuable. Especially through trying times with high levels of uncertainty, the framework has imparted a degree of stability by helping to anchor public expectations of monetary policy. In delivering our primary mandate of macroeconomic stability, inflation targeting will continue to be a central pillar.
Credit lines were closed, margin calls were made, and all but the safest assets sold off at fire sale prices. Emerging market assets experienced a sell-off as a part of this process, and funds were repatriated back to the US in order to meet margin calls and repay debt. In normal times, managing liquidity across currencies from countries with free movement of capital and relatively developed capital markets is not much of an issue. In these conditions, FX swap markets can speedily be used to convert liquidity from one currency to another at spreads that closely reflect the differences in domestic money market rates in the two countries concerned. In other words, the covered interest parity condition broadly holds. Visà-vis the US dollar, this relationship showed periodic strain for most currencies after the  BIS Review 9/2010  3  financial turmoil erupted in late summer 2007, but it broke down almost completely after Lehman. There are probably several reasons for this, some of which were analysed in BIS publications such as the Quarterly Review during the period when I was still there. 2 Thus, for instance, we know that before the crisis, European banks had a structural imbalance where they had invested in longer-maturity USD assets and financed them partly in USD interbank markets at shorter maturities. When these dried up, there was probably a scramble to get USD liquidity through FX swap markets, with the result that those markets became dysfunctional as well.

This is not a side issue for central bankers, as we are now in charge of financial stability as well as price stability. Moreover, a robust and profitable financial sector is one of the prerequisites for the proper transmission of our monetary policy. 1. Where do we stand in the euro area with respect to monetary policy? I am fully aware of the heated debate here in Germany surrounding our monetary policy. A debate that is fully legitimate, but let us try to keep it rational, and avoid getting emotional. “Mehr Licht!” (more light!) if you allow me to quote Goethe’s last words. This is exactly what I would like to do today: to shed light on our reasons and our progress. As you know, the ECB was shaped according to the model of the Bundesbank, and I do believe that the Eurosystem’s collective monetary policy is very much aligned with the German values that I fully share and admire: independence, respect of the Treaties, price stability and a longterm approach. As price stability is the mission entrusted to us by the European Treaties, we have a duty to make it our primary focus. Price stability means an inflation rate of close to, but below, 2% over the medium-term. This has been our definition since 2003, and it is a definition that most central banks in developed countries share – what Jean-Claude Trichet rightly terms as “a great convergence".