samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This is because either the desired policy rate is sufficiently below the ELB or the central bank has committed to keep 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  interest rates unchanged through forward guidance. However, conflicts of objectives between fiscal and monetary policies may arise in the future. The ongoing accumulation of public debt and the large expansion of central banks’ balance sheets increase the likelihood of such conflicts. On the one hand, large fiscal stimuli for too long may lead to concerns about debt sustainability and, via the expectation of future fiscal tightening, offsetting the favorable effects on output and inflation. On the other hand, central banks should keep the risks taken in their balance sheets under control to avoid threatening their own independence. Indeed, low inflation today is not a guarantee that it will remain low forever. They must keep a sound balance sheet with adequate capital in order to keep full control of their monetary stance all along the road. The key question is then how to reconcile the benefits of a mutual reinforcement of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the short-term with the challenges of keeping inflation under control and public debt to sustainable levels in the long-term. There is no magic answer to this question but I will try to sketch here some basic principles that are in my opinion ingredients of a sound policymix recipe: 1. Each authority should be guided by and stick to its mandate.

1 Article 3.3 of the Treaty on the European Union. 2 Article 127.5 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3 The monetary policy strategy review: some preliminary considerations, Speech by Christine Lagarde, President  of the ECB, at the “ECB and Its Watchers XXI”conference, 30 September 2020 4 www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/2020.05.25_sep_en_cl.pdf 5  See Blanchard & Summers (2020), Automatic Stabilizers in a Low-Rate Environment, AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 110, May. 5/5  BIS central bankers' speeches
Following the launch of the National Financial Inclusion Strategy in 2017, new informal financial service providers have emerged, such as, village banks and savings groups in both the rural and urban areas. As both formal and informal financial service providers are agents of financial inclusion it is important for us, the regulators, to seek effective ways of linking the two types of players with a view to reducing informality as we expand financial inclusion. Distinguished Guests, in recognition of the importance of formal financial inclusion in supporting economic growth, the Bank of Zambia is collaborating with SaveNet, to 1  KEYNOTE SPEECH BY DR DENNY KALYALYA, GOVERNOR, BANK OF ZAMBIA AT THE 2019 WORLD SAVINGS DAY EVENT ON 31ST OCTOBER 2019 AT THE INTERCONTINENTAL HOTEL, LUSAKA  develop channels to link informal savings groups to formal financial services providers. According to SaveNet data, at the end of 2018 there were 15,700 savings groups in Zambia, with cumulative savings amounting to K53.1 million. This points to a good opportunity for the formal financial service providers to mobilise deposits. In this regard, it has been observed that a number of regulated financial service providers and mobile money operators have already started designing products aimed at tapping into this market. It is hoped that this move will expedite the transition of informal groupings into the formal financial sector and enable more people gain access to a wider range of quality and affordable financial services.

Secondly, inflation expectations rose steadily – albeit from a low level – particularly in the UK and the US (cf. chart 2b). This trend was reinforced by the outcome of the US election, which fuelled expectations of a more expansionary fiscal policy and a stronger increase in US government debt. The rise in yields also reflects higher risk premia caused by generally heightened uncertainty surrounding the future course of US fiscal and monetary policy. Page 1/7  Berne, 15 December 2016 Andréa M. Maechler  News conference  Thus, the increase in yields was particularly pronounced in the US. Ten-year US government bonds recently stood at around 2.5%, 1 percentage point up from mid-year. By contrast, yield increases in Japan and Europe were on a smaller scale. Yields on ten-year Swiss Confederation bonds recently stood at –0.1%, half a percentage point up from mid-year. Approximately 60% of outstanding Confederation bonds are currently still generating negative yields, compared with around 95% at the end of June. The global rise in yields has led to a reduction in the share of negative-yielding government bonds worldwide from over 30% at the end of June to around 20% most recently. Although this trend can be seen as a step towards normalisation on the bond markets, it is important to recognise that higher US yields and the associated appreciation of the US dollar could become a burden for some emerging economies.
In this connection, it is worth offering some figures illustrating the scale of this change. Specifically, the Spanish economy’s current account balance has improved by more than 11 percentage points (pp) of GDP since the start of the crisis, turning from a deficit of 9.4% of GDP in 2007 to a surplus of around 2% in 2019. In terms of components, while all captions have contributed positively to this adjustment, of most note has been the correction of the net balance of non-energy goods and of the primary and secondary income balance. The contributions of the latter to the improvement in the total balance in this period were almost 6 pp and 3 pp, respectively. But the energy goods, tourism and non-tourist services balances have also each contributed about 1 pp. As suggested, among the key factors behind this correction of the external balance are the gains in competitiveness achieved in these past ten years. These are estimated to have contributed both to the increase in the structural level of exports and to their geographical diversification towards markets with greater growth potential, thereby resulting in a favourable market-share performance. At the same time, imports have been seen to be flatter in relation to the rise in final demand, despite the momentum of exports in firms and sectors with a high import content. That likewise points to an improvement in the competitiveness of the resident productive sector compared with foreign competitors.

This level is 1 pp of GDP higher than the average volume of this type of investment during the crisis. In any event, foreign direct investment in Spain was impacted to a lesser extent than portfolio investment during the recession, with no divestment recorded in any year, in contrast to what occurred with portfolio investment. That reveals its greater stability compared with other forms of international investment. Another notable characteristic of the recent trend of this item is the decline in the relative weight of these capital inflows in the form of debt liabilities – which comprise intra-group loans and have scarcely accounted for 12% of the total since 2013, compared with over 30% during the pre-crisis years (average between 1999 and 2007) – and the increase in investment in the form of equity. Thus, while in recent years the volume of foreign direct investment has, in terms of GDP, been around 1.5 pp below that observed during the pre-crisis expansion, its composition is sounder, since it is less vulnerable to adverse shocks. Challenges The future outlook for the foreign sector will be influenced by protectionist tensions and by the uncertainty still surrounding the final shape of EU-United Kingdom relations in the wake of Brexit. On the evidence available, the protectionist tensions between the United States and China may be expected to affect global trade flows in two ways: on one hand, a notable direct impact via the global value chains; and on the other, indirect adverse repercussions via their effects on global confidence and investment.
Encik Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Prevention of corruption in project management Opening remarks by Mr Encik Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Talk entitled "Prevention of Corruption in Project Management", Kuala Lumpur, 3 April 2017. * * * It is my great honour and pleasure to welcome officers from the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), particularly the speaker for today, Assistant Commissioner Mr Mohan Munusamy. A warm welcome is also extended to the project teams comprising the steering committees, contractors and consultants. My appreciation also goes to all my fellow Bank staff who are here today. In more recent times, the Bank and MACC have collaborated on a number of fronts. The recent strategic cooperation between the Bank and MACC, together with LHDN to combat financial crime, particularly corruption, signifies our commitment to work together in this area. From the Bank’s perspective, this demonstrates our effort to instil integrity for and beyond our regulatees in the financial market. Integrity is taken very seriously at the Bank where we continually and consciously maintain the highest standards, given that we enforce these standards on our regulatees in our supervisory capacity. We proactively manage integrity hazards and corruption risks and tackle those risks pre-emptively. Corruption is not simply a crime on its own. Its consequences can be far-reaching in terms of economic losses and irreparable reputation damage. Thus, we must actively keep abreast of the management of integrity risks.

Our scope of responsibilities and stakeholder groups have also expanded in tandem. In order to ensure continuous integrity safeguards, the Bank has refreshed its framework and guidelines to include the procurement process, project management and whistle blowing to mitigate current and emerging project risks. Third parties which are engaged by the Bank must adhere to ethical practices as outlined in the vendor code of conduct, to be made publicly available soon. In closing, I would like to express my deep appreciation to Assistant Commissioner Tuan Mohan and his colleagues from MACC. We are very privileged to have had the opportunity to benefit 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  from their insight and experience and it will help us do our part in combating corruption. May this occasion foster an even closer cooperation between the Bank and MACC, and herald many more joint events to come. 2/2  BIS central bankers' speeches
We supplement this survey evidence with assessments from internal models. These models are data-driven and estimate percentiles of the distribution of possible forecast outcomes for growth and inflation. Our estimated models have indicated a greater degree of uncertainty than reflected in the U.S. SPF, and suggest downside risk to both the growth and inflation forecast. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  But, I would caution that these models are still relatively new in terms of their development and their results need to be supplemented by judgment. Now, putting these inputs and my judgment together, I see the uncertainties around my forecast to be greater than the typical levels of the past. This assessment reflects the divergent economic signals I highlighted earlier, and is consistent with the turbulence we have seen in global financial markets. At this moment, I judge that the balance of risks to my growth and inflation outlooks may be starting to tilt slightly to the downside. The recent tightening of financial market conditions could have a greater negative impact on the U.S. economy should this tightening prove persistent and the continuing decline in energy and commodity prices may signal greater and more persistent disinflationary pressures in the global economy than I currently anticipate. I am closely monitoring global economic and financial market developments to assess their implications for my outlook and the balance of risks. U.S. Monetary Policy in a Global Environment Thus far, my remarks have focused on the U.S. outlook and the risks relative to this outlook.

The bank’s capital is examined in relation to all of its assets, even offbalance sheet items. And to meet the requirements, the capital must not fall below a certain ratio. One does not take into account historical risk relationships and other aspects usually used in the banks’ risk calculations. The leverage ratio thus limits risk taking regardless of whether the banks’ models show that their risk is low. Alternatively, the banks are forced to allocate much larger capital reserves than they do now. Otherwise, the leverage ratio will hamper growth in their lending. In this way, gross solvency functions as an additional protective layer against the type of incorrect assumptions in the banks’ models and measurements that were revealed during the crisis. Because the leverage ratio is a relatively uncomplicated measure, it is also more difficult to manipulate or misunderstand. This reduces the probability of the banks’ boards of directors, financial supervisory authorities, shareholders and others being deceived or else  6  BIS Review 159/2010  misinterpreting information. In connection with this, I can mention that the Basel Committee recently agreed on a number of principles that aim to clarify the role and responsibilities of the board of directors and to reinforce the independence and competence of the risk management function. Security and costs – a balancing act A valid question here is how all this will affect the banks and the Swedish economy. Various representatives of the bank sector have complained about the new liquidity regulations, for instance.
Ardian Fullani: The Albanian economy and the banking sector in 2010 Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the reception of the Albanian Association of Banks, with bankers and representatives of banks operating in Albania, Tirana, 17 December 2010. *  *  *  Dear bank executive managers, Dear participants, It is always a pleasure to meet once the year-end approaches to make a summary of events that characterized the Albanian economy and the banking sector over the course of 2010. The Albanian economy is forecast to grow in 2010 slightly higher than in 2009. Industry and services provided the largest contribution to the positive economic growth, yielding as well a relative improvement in the balance of payments’ current account. Lek’s exchange rate was more stable compared with the preceding year, whilst consumer prices fluctuated within the Bank of Albania’s target of 3%. Fiscal policy engaged in a process of fiscal consolidation during the present year, which we consider as critical in order to preserve the budget deficit and domestic debt levels and keep the level of interest payments in check. Developments in the financial system attest to the full recovery of public confidence in the banking system. As at end of the third quarter of 2010, total banking sector assets accounted for 81.7% of GDP, up 12.2% y-o-y versus merely 0.9% in the same period in 2009. Deposit growth and higher capital account provided the major positive contribution to the expansion of banking sector activity.

Deposits have grown by 18% y-o-y, out of which more than 2/3 of this figure represents foreign currency-denominated deposit growth. Banking sector treasury and interbank operations declined versus the same period in 2009. Liabilities to non-residents have dropped by 32% y-o-y. Concerning the composition of banking sector assets, we note that lending has grown by 8% on a yearly basis. The annual growth rate of lending has been constantly downward in the last couple of years. Banking sector and interbank operations have grown by about 25% on a yearly basis. Banking sector investments in non-resident assets increased by 53% y-o-y. Net profit was positive and substantially higher than in the same period in 2009. Return on Assets and Equity stood at 0.6% and 6%, respectively. Capitalization and liquidity figures were at adequate levels. Capital adequacy ratio was estimated at 15.7%, while liquid assets accounted for 28.9% of total assets. As part of the regular stress-test analyses conducted by the Bank of Albania, in the context of a more comprehensive risk evaluation, the banking sector results stable. Let me now elaborate on some issues I find critically important for the future. The banking sector weathered the hard liquidity situation in year-end 2008 and early 2009 successfully. Following that period, public deposits in banks have grown at stable rates and liquidity has improved markedly. However, lending has contracted pronouncedly, initially as a result of the higher credit risk and later, due to the fall of business and consumer demand for loans.
It is thus not only import prices, but also domestic price pressure that has increased more slowly. This could be connected with the higher productivity I mentioned. In this case, it would mean that the economy could grow at a slightly faster rate without inflation accelerating. Particularly as inflation expectations have also declined slightly. Inflation picture and monetary policy When we look ahead somewhat, we can conclude that the temporary fluctuations in energy prices, which have had a strong effect on inflation since the end of 2002 and pushed it down significantly in recent months, are expected to have abated by mid-2005. As Swedish and international economic activity improve, price pressure is also expected to increase. However, in the main scenario inflation is expected to be below the Riksbank’s target both one and two years ahead, mainly due to lower wage cost increases and improved productivity growth. During 2004 UND1X inflation is expected to amount to an average of 0.6 per cent, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the December forecast. The corresponding figure for 2005 is 1.2 per cent, which entails a revision of 0.4 percentage points for the year. At the end of the two-year period that comprises the main focus of the forecasts, inflation according to UND1X is expected to be 1.6 per cent, on the assumption of an unchanged repo rate. So what are the risks that might upset the picture I have just presented?

The very high growth figures for productivity during the latter part of the 1990s reflected both the macroeconomic stabilisation, an expansion in the private sector relative to the public sector, and in particular the IT expansion. It is unlikely that the development will continue in the same way in the future. However, we know that productivity growth has been surprisingly high in recent years. Many economists are busy working on the question of which factors lie behind this development. It is clear that, unlike the 1990s, it is not a question of high productivity growth in the IT sector and major investment in IT. One theory that has been put forward is that it may perhaps be explained by delayed effects in other sectors of earlier IT investment; that it has quite simply taken time for companies to adjust and to take advantage of the new technology. It is thus difficult to say anything about the durability of the most recent development. However, there are many indications that the long-term increase in productivity now is higher than it was during the 1980s. The widespread structural changes that took place during the 1990s are also an indication of this. Nor should it be forgotten, that the labour force is better educated today than it was ten years ago, particularly with regard to the percentage of those with a university education. There are studies indicating that the improvement in qualifications has also contributed to the growth in productivity.
What’s more, the national supervisors will continuously carry out centrally steered checks to make sure that these institutions, which are often essential to the financing of the local economy, do not as a group pose any relevant risk. Additionally, we have identified, besides the 120 largest banks, 100 others that we will keep a close eye on. We do so because they are either regionally relevant, in bad shape or have specific business models. Will restoring robustness and transparency in the banking system suffice to start credit flowing again in the euro area? With a robust and resilient European banking system, we move a big step forward. Although such a banking system is a necessary condition for sustainable credit growth, it is not the only condition for banks to increase lending to the real economy. At the national level, structural reforms are required that will help firms to regain competitiveness and become sound enough for banks to lend to them. Banks take credit risk when lending to the real economy. They need to be convinced that their customers, such as small and medium-sized enterprises, will make enough profits to repay the loans they receive. The growth prospects for national GDP as well as economic and structural factors such as labour market rules and sound fiscal budgets are therefore relevant criteria for banks’ decision to do business. The ECB will, from now on, have two missions: steering monetary policy and supervising banks. How will a conflict of interests be avoided?

As supervisors we do not think in terms of countries, but of banks’ business and risk profiles. Each bank operates differently and therefore has to face different problems; it would be unwise not to see them individually. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Unemployment varied between 6 and 8 per cent around an average of 7 per cent during the ten years preceding the financial crisis.16 If the current rate of fall in unemployment continues, it will reach a normal level in the autumn of 2011. Although, the assessment in the Monetary Policy Report is that this will not take place so quickly, we should remember that both the Riksbank and others have underestimated the strengthening of the labour market in recent years (see Figure 20). Monetary policy must also take into account how the development of the economy affects wage formation. Monetary policy must resist the temptation to stimulate production and employment in the short term over and above the level that is compatible with a stable development of wages and inflation. A very rapid improvement of the labour market may lead to problems in the wage negotiations that will begin in the autumn. Wage formation has worked well in the last 15 years and this has helped to keep inflation at a low and stable level. It would be unfortunate if wage negotiations had to be conducted in a situation where there is overheating on the labour market. In the current situation, the shortage of labour is probably a better measure of how strained the labour market is than unemployment. The shortage of labour in the business sector was back to an almost normal level in the fourth quarter of 2010.

If instead we, members of the Executive Board, had followed the results of the simulations in the Riksbank’s model Ramses when the crisis hit, then the repo rate would have been reduced very slowly. Applied to the current situation in Sweden, the Taylor rule would give a repo rate of 3 to 4 per cent. This indicates that the repo-rate path should be even higher than it is. Repo rate changes Even though there are thus factors that with the current forecasts indicate that the repo rate should be increased more rapidly, I believe that there is a value in changing the repo rate at a steady pace in small steps. Unexpected, substantial changes may entail costs for households and companies and could cause instability on the financial markets. This was also my reasoning in 2006 and 2007 when the Riksbank was in a period of repo rate increases. I entered a reservation at every meeting in 2007 when the majority did not want to increase the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points. The most important thing for me therefore is that the repo rate continues to be raised in small steps meeting by meeting. My assessment at the latest monetary policy meeting was that it will need to be raised by 0.25 percentage points at every meeting this year so that it reaches 2.75 per cent at the end of the year. However, it is more difficult to assess the situation after the turn of the year.