samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
While overall labor market indicators for the second half of 2013 were not particularly strong, the overall trend in unemployment showed some improvement with the unemployment rate falling sharply over that period, from 7.5 percent in June to 6.7 percent in December. However, as has been the case since October of 2009 when the unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent, this decline in the unemployment rate was driven in large part by a decline in the labor force participation rate. Much has been written about the forces that are causing this decline of the labor force participation rate. Researchers have shown that the aging of the population is playing a role, as are changes in behavior. But our own analysis suggests that the cyclical weakness of demand for labor is an important contributing factor. As a result, I conclude that the decline of the unemployment rate significantly overstates the degree of improvement in the labor market. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Looking forward, I believe that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy have improved to the point where we can expect sustained growth above the roughly 2 1/4 percent annual pace that prevailed from mid-2009 through mid-2013. Also, the amount of fiscal drag continues to diminish. Another good piece of news is that Congress has raised the debt ceiling until March 2015. This lessens the risk that political brinkmanship in Washington could harm consumer and business confidence.

Ultimately, regulations exist to promote a safe, efficient and sound financial system that is competitive and where consumers’ interest are protected. Regulatory regimes promote the foundation of trust and confidence that is crucial in any financial system. If people do not trust the system, financial intermediation cannot take place in any shape or form. As the modalities for financial intermediation and payments are transformed by technology, regulation should play an 6/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  active role in creating a similar environment of trust to ensure overall financial stability. The boundaries of regulation will evolve to provide the freedom for participants in the Malaysian financial system to innovate and adopt technology to exploit efficiencies and create new and better solutions. Solutions that not only deliver better experience for consumers, but that better align the responsibilities that we all carry as responsible citizens, to lift people out of poverty, provide our fellow Malaysians a decent living standard, eliminate discrimination and protect our environment. Regulation is never intended to make market players ‘boring'. If they feel that way, it only tells us one thing – that they have become too complacent in their comfort zone and should undertake a reality check. Malaysia’s financial institutions especially must not lay idle as innovations will be relentless in accessing and penetrating the traditional market long enjoyed by the banks. Using the disguise of being tied by regulations is not a valid excuse.
Of course the three regulators, BoZ, PIA, and SEC have also done their bit by seconding personnel to the FSDP Secretariat and taking responsibility for the financial obligations entailed. I want to thank all of them for their commitment and dedication. It is now my singular honour and privilege to call upon the Deputy Minister of Finance, Honourable Miles Sampa, MP to formally launch the National Strategy on Financial Education for Zambia. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches

I am therefore now looking forward to first talking about what has recently affected interest rate policy on a more fundamental level and then about the factors behind the decision taken in September. High inflation and rising interest rates The Riksbank is to ensure that we keep inflation in Sweden at a low and stable rate. We have indeed experienced a long period with a fairly low rate of price increase, approximately 1.6 per cent on average since the inflation target was announced. However, over the past year inflation has been higher. In August the rate of increase in consumer prices was 4.3 per cent. This is the highest inflation rate in almost 15 years. Given this, it is perhaps not surprising that expected inflation has also risen in the short term. But expectations of inflation several years ahead are now also clearly above the Riksbank's target of 2 per cent. It is therefore not surprising that many people are concerned. As inflation has risen, the Riksbank has raised its interest on loans to the banks, the repo rate. This is now 4.75 per cent. The banks’ lending rates to companies and households are higher and have also risen. They have risen more than the Riksbank’s rate increases. This is in turn linked to the uncertainty in the financial markets, which has increased the banks’ borrowing costs around the world. At the same time, the economic activity in the world in general has weakened, which leads to a decline in exports for Swedish companies.
2  Examples include the contribution of the private sector to: the development of revised ISDA protocols as part of efforts to tackle Too Big To Fail; improvements in disclosure under the aegis of the Enhanced Disclosure Taskforce; consultation over TLAC proposals; the establishment of the Banking Standards Council; and ongoing work to develop the appropriate near-risk free reference rate for sterling markets. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  It is frustrating for us all that such major progress risks being overshadowed by misconduct problems. The fair and effective markets review We must break the back of these issues, and the Fair and Effective Markets Review shows the way forward. With its publication today, all the main building blocks are now in place for the real markets we need. I want to pay tribute to my colleagues Charles Roxburgh, Minouche Shafik and Martin Wheatley, who so ably led the Review. And to salute Elizabeth Corley, who so expertly chaired the Review’s independent Market Practitioner panel, canvassing and coalescing views from across the industry. The importance and complexity of their task is illustrated by the multiple root causes of the misconduct in FICC markets.

Thomas Jordan: Current challenges for the Swiss National Bank in the area of monetary policy Summary of a speech by Mr Thomas Jordan, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Money Market Event of the Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 27 March 2008. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  With its forecast that GDP will grow by 1.5%-2.0% and the average inflation rate will amount to 2%, the National Bank is cautiously optimistic for the Swiss economy in 2008. However, since the summer of 2007, the international environment has taken a clear turn for the worse: Financial markets are in a serious crisis, the major economies are weakening and inflation rates are rising worldwide. This means that the SNB’s monetary policy is facing challenges on several fronts simultaneously. With regard to economic growth, the SNB is called upon to assess the consequences of the international financial crisis for the Swiss economy as precisely as possible and to analyse their implications for monetary policy correctly and at an early stage. On the inflation front, it must ensure that the measures taken in connection with the financial market crisis do not jeopardise the credibility of a monetary policy geared to long-term price stability or shake established inflation expectations. Finally, the challenge in the money market is two-fold.
There are those who sometimes give the impression that they think the Euro could - by regulation or restrictions - be confined to within the territory of the Euro area, and that this would be “a good thing”. That I have to say is not our experience. In practice unnecessary or ineffective domestic regulations or restrictions have often been the cause of financial activity growing up elsewhere. In any event we live in a global financial world and the Euro is bound to become a widely-used and actively-traded currency internationally. Its liquidity is likely to be a key attraction to domestic and foreign users alike. The City of London both contributes to, and thrives upon, liquid markets, and the Euro-market, or the euro-Euro-market if we are an “out”, will be no exception. That can only be good for the development of financial activity - the provision of competitive financial services - across Europe as a whole, because we are not talking here about a zero-sum game. Euro-activity in London is likely to stimulate financial activity in other centres and vice versa; and much of that activity will be undertaken by branches or affiliates of the same major financial firms. The first ecu-Euro bond raised last week by a European borrower and managed from London by a Swiss/British and a French bank and by another French bank in Paris, is a good example not just of London’s international role as it is today, but of how it is likely to continue.

In November of 2013, the Bank outlined proposed regulatory reforms for the financial advisory industry which formed part of the “Life Insurance and Family Takaful Framework” or in short the LIFE Framework, which we published for consultation. An important aim of the reforms is to support the Bank’s desire to further diversify insurance delivery channels as one – although not the only – way to improve the quality of advice, and enhance choice and value for consumers based on their specific needs and circumstances. This in turn would contribute towards increasing the insurance and takaful penetration rate to 75 percent by 2020 as targeted under the Government’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). We received positive feedback from the financial advisory industry on the proposed reforms and while specific elements of the LIFE Framework remain under review to take into account the comments that were received, we have moved ahead to implement several changes proposed which concern the financial advisory industry. The Bank has lowered the minimum capital requirement for financial advisers to RM50,000 which will take effect from 1 January 2015 to encourage more advisers to enter the industry. This follows an increased focus on professionalism, innovation and quality of advice as the hallmark of those who are admitted to the industry.
We cannot afford over the long run a new “whatever it costs” phase if we want to preserve our capacity to invest in decarbonation and energy sovereignty in the future and not to overload future generations. To put it clearly, as a benchmark, the public share in the distribution of the cumulative burden in 2022 and the following years should not exceed current levels and reverse towards zero within let’s say two to three years. The remaining share of the burden should be distributed fairly between firms and households according to their energy consumption shares. It seems logical that a more significant share falls on firms since they are the largest ex ante consumers of energy. But the issue remains of the distribution of the burden between in particular the energy companies on the one hand and the other sectors on the other, starting with the most energy dependent. Households cannot be completely and permanently exempted from their share in this distribution. This is not easy to say, and even less easy to do; and it is essential to address the difficulties of the most disadvantaged, in particular households in rural areas who consume relatively more energy. So we need to quickly better target those who need it most. And we need to gradually but steadily reduce general support schemes which we cannot afford and do not give the right incentives over the long, or even medium, term.

These results have guided changes introduced to questions in the survey, which have gone some way towards reducing the commonly observed upwards bias in surveyed consumer inflation expectations. Conclusion  18. To conclude, inflation dynamics and expectations are important underpinnings of the macroeconomic dynamics confronting the region in the period ahead. The organisations represented here are at the forefront of analysis into the various aspects of these developments. I am sure there will be interesting insights and perspectives from this Seminar. [1] See for example, Crust, E, Daly, M, and Hobijn, B (2020), “The Illusion of Wage Growth”, Federal  Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letters, 2020-26. [2] International Monetary Fund (2021), “Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies”, World Economic  Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries, April. [3] See for example: Shiller, R. J. (1981), “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent  Changes in Dividends?”, American Economic Review, Vol. 71(3), pp.421 – 436; Akerlof, G. A. (1970), “The Market for ‘Lemons’: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84(3), pp.488 – 500. [4] Akerlof, G. A. and Shiller, R. J. (2009), Animal Spirits, Princeton University Press. [5] Gennaioli, N. and Shleifer, A. (2018), A Crisis of Beliefs, Princeton University Press. [6] Representativeness entails a judgement error of overestimating the likelihood of representative  attributes which appear with higher relative frequency in a class. See reference in note 4. [7] Agarwal, S. and Yeung, B, (2021), “Inflation Expectations and Household Consumption”,  Macroeconomic Review, Vol.
It does appear likely that the high level of productivity growth has to some extent been cyclical and a result of the composition of growth. It is reasonable to believe that productivity will increase at a slower rate in future as growth is expected to be linked to a greater extent to strong domestic demand and increased production in the private services sector. All in all, declining productivity growth and higher wage increases as the labour market improves ought to lead to a gradual rise in companies' production costs. However, the cost increases look to be moderate, and we expect that cost pressures will remain relatively low over the coming years. It should be emphasised that it is difficult to determine exactly how far productivity growth will slow down and thereby how much companies’ costs may increase in future. It is likely that the rate of increase in productivity has risen as a result of the large-scale investment in information technology made by companies at the end of the 1990s and due to the effects of globalisation on competition and output. However, it is fully possible that we will have reason to revise up our forecast for productivity growth even more in coming years. It is just as conceivable that productivity growth will prove to be weaker than estimated. Gradually rising inflation Inflation has remained low since the end of 2003.

At the same time, the high productivity and relatively good corporate profitability can be expected to be reflected in favourable wage growth in the period ahead. Altogether, this means that the prospects for good for firm growth in domestic demand and employment over the coming years. 2/4  Compared with the assessment in June, we today have somewhat more expansionary monetary policy. The budget bill that was presented in September also suggests that fiscal policy, particularly in 2006, will be slightly more expansionary that we anticipated then. That indicates that we might have to revise up our growth forecasts for the Swedish economy somewhat in the years ahead. All in all, this means that growth appears able to remain firm in the coming years. Gradually, however, growth should slacken somewhat, which is in line with a normal cyclical pattern with a normalisation of growth in investment and productivity. Less expansionary economic policy is also expected to contribute to somewhat lower growth in 2007 and 2008. Capacity pressures to rise gradually As regards developments in the labour market, the assessment of the current tendencies has been made more difficult by the change in methods in the labour force survey. With this reservation, it can nevertheless be said that there are signs that the situation in the labour market is improving. According to the National Accounts the number of hours worked began to rise in the second quarter this year.
It would be rather strange if such differentiation were to make it more difficult for us to 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  provide liquidity to EU than to third-country CCPs. This does not mean that we would seek to substitute our judgement for that of EU or thirdcountry CCP supervisors: their primary responsibility to guarantee the resilience of CCPs, and more broadly the stability of our financial system, cannot and should not be questioned. But we need a set of safeguards so that our concerns are appropriately taken into account in the regulation and supervision of CCPs. I see three such safeguards: The first is adequate information on the operation and risk management of CCPs clearing in euro, and the capacity to assess how they would fare in times of market stress, including through stress testing. A second is meaningful involvement in the supervisory process, to ascertain that CCPs’ compliance with prudential and operational requirements provides sufficient guarantees from our perspective as a central bank. And third, we should be able to adopt requirements to address critical central bank concerns. For instance, it would be our prerogative to determine when CCPs should hold central bank accounts for deposit and settlement purposes, and to require targeted enhancements to CCP liquidity risk management when necessary in exceptional market environments. Everyone should be clear that our ability to carry out our mandate and, where appropriate, to provide liquidity to CCPs, relies on enshrining these safeguards in our regulatory framework.

So, the only way to ensure debt sustainability is to raise productivity, invest and increase the employment rate, and this implies structural reforms. Q: None of these factors are present. There is hardly any growth, investment or jobs. A: I am aware that the situation is still very difficult in Spain and that the Spanish people have suffered a lot in the process of reducing imbalances and implementing reforms. However, they can rest assured that Spain has turned the corner, and that the outlook is once again improving. This will encourage firms to invest and to start recruiting again, not only Spanish firms but also foreign ones. In a way, Spain can stand as an example not only for other countries that have been hit by the crisis, but for other large countries at Europe’s core, that have not been so active in reforming their economies. Spain is an example of how, through reforms, it is possible to redress imbalances and get out of the doldrums. Q: Which reforms are urgent? A: It depends on the country. The European Commission has already issued so-called “country specific recommendations”. The worrying thing, as the Commission acknowledges, is that these recommendations are too rarely followed. It would be preferable if countries took them seriously and felt collectively committed. In the case of Spain, my personal view is that much remains to be done to support the young people and help find jobs. They are the future.
In this light, the recent increase in borrowing among younger individuals is consistent with an improvement in labor market prospects and some loosening of credit standards, although the increase in borrowing by younger age cohorts is modest and remains below their pre-crisis level. The high level of student debt may create the risk of a drag on future consumption growth. In fact, while highly skilled young workers have traditionally provided a vital influx of new, affluent consumers to U.S. housing and auto markets, the unprecedented growth in student debt and the persistently high student loan delinquency rates are likely to dampen the influence of this group in today’s marketplace and may represent a structural or longlasting change in household credit markets. To summarize, I have reviewed the many positive signals we should take from the fact that in 2013 we observed the first year-over-year increase in borrowing by U.S. households since 2008. The willingness of U.S. households to increase their debt levels in aggregate likely reflects the restorative influences of significant turnarounds in house prices and stock market values since their lows in 2009–10, somewhat better employment outcomes, and much stronger household balance sheets as a result of write-offs and pay-downs of earlier indebtedness. In addition, a gradual loosening of credit availability is likely to have accommodated the increased demand for credit, although mortgage lending continues to be subject to high credit standards.

Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems. Borio, C. (2012). The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt? BIS Working Paper No 395. Commission of Experts for limiting the economic risks posed by large companies (2010). Final report. www.sif.admin.ch/dokumentation/00522/00724/00725/index.html?lang=en. Schularick M., and Taylor, A. (2012). Credit booms gone bust: Monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises, 1870–2008. American Economic Review, American Economic Association, Vol. 102(2), pages 1029–61. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5