samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
But this is a collective action problem where seemingly rational individual inaction makes our collective future problems much bigger. So we must not let perfection be the enemy of progress. And after all, managing uncertainty is what you do all the time. Be brave here too. 6/7  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  I will leave you with an encouragement (again) to each play your role, and to make the most of this important network. I would like to thank Jenny Clark, Tim Rawlings, Chris Faint, David Swallow and Theresa Löber for their help producing this speech. 1 In pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, net global GHG  emissions are projected to fall by 43% below 2019 levels by 2030. See IPCC (2023), ' AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023Opens in a new window' 2 World Economic Forum (2022), 'Analysis: Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels hits  record high in 2022Opens in a new window' 3 From around 0.1% in 2012 to above 4% in 2021. See The City UK (2022), 'Green  finance: a quantitative assessment of market trendsOpens in a new window' 4 40% of homes in England now have an EPC rating of B and C or better.

Progress on climate related disclosures Third, in 2020, the quantity and quality of climate disclosures was in its infancy. We had recognised the need for it to move from the static to the strategic, for it to be forwardlooking and for it to be comparable across firms. Now, mandatory disclosures for large corporates under the TCFD are a reality in the UK, and are driving the right conversations around board tables. Here at the Bank we are soon to publish our fourth TCFD-aligned report, overcoming challenges with each new report. And internationally the ISSB is due to build on the work of the TCFD by publishing its first global standards on climate later this year – in a fraction of the time usually taken. I have very little doubt that in the future we will look back at the ISSB's work as a fundamental building block of comparable global green markets. The growth of green finance Fourth, we have seen and continue to see growth in the green finance market. The share of green finance in total finance has steadily increased, reflecting burgeoning investor demand and the financial system's ability to innovate.3 That poses new challenges, including greenwashing, and markets regulators like the FCA are responding accordingly. But it's not only green products we need to see growth in. More fundamentally, we need to see an increase in transition finance projects that help business deliver long-term emissions reductions – greening our future economy, not just investing in the currently green.
Forecasts by international and private organisations currently project euro area real GDP growth in the coming one to two years to be somewhat lower than this year’s more than 3%, but to remain at around 3%. The exchange rate of the euro has remained a cause for concern. The depreciation of the euro during 1999 and 2000 has added to upward pressures on consumer prices in the euro area. The exchange rate of the euro has now remained out of line with economic fundamentals for a prolonged period of time. The G7 expressed concern about the global repercussions of the current level of the euro exchange rate. In order to support the euro, concerted interventions by all G7 members, on the initiative of the ECB, took place on 22 September, and the Eurosystem intervened several times in November. Recent Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rates have been higher than could have been expected only a few months ago. Current inflation reflects the unexpected sharp rise in oil prices 1  BIS Review 109/2000  in recent months. Notwithstanding a possible decline in oil prices, annual HICP inflation rates are likely to remain above 2% for some time to come. It needs to be recognised that current upward pressures on consumer prices can be alleviated most smoothly if economic agents see them for what they are, namely one-off or temporary price increases resulting from external factors.

For instance, if the long-term trend growth of the economy is overestimated, the output gap (in absolute terms) would as a consequence be overestimated too and so would the deflationary risks. Monetary and fiscal policies would then be considered, ceteris paribus, as excessively tight and there would be a bias towards excessive expansion, with a view to achieving an optimistic rate of growth. The borrowing capacity of countries, households and companies would also be overestimated if their potential growth were overestimated. Ex post, the miscalculation of growth potential would result in an excessive accumulation of debt, both public and private, a misalignment between the interest rate and its long-term “neutral” level, and insufficient savings. As shown by Kydland and Prescott in their work on time inconsistency of optimal policy, which was later applied to monetary policy by Barro and Gordon, policy-makers who aim at excessively “optimistic” growth will conduct an inconsistent policy which will generate instability. The solution to this problem, at least for monetary policy, is to set a rule or establish an independent central bank which is aware of such an inconsistency and has a sufficiently long horizon to avoid it. This assumes however that the independent policy-maker knows what the right, “not over-optimistic” long-term growth of the economy is. He or she also has to know what the right model of the world economy is. This brings me back to the question I raised at the start, i.e. the impact of globalisation on the long-term growth of advanced economies.
An appreciation of the Swiss franc at the current time would again expose Switzerland to considerable risks and, once more, endanger both price stability and the stabilisation of the economy. Given this situation, the SNB will enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination. If developments in the international economy are worse than foreseen, or if the Swiss franc does not weaken further as expected, renewed downside risks for price stability could emerge. Should the economic outlook and the threat of deflation require it, the SNB is prepared at any time to take further measures. As you will probably have deduced from this account, seen from today’s vantage point, interest rates in Switzerland are likely to remain low for a while yet. This expansionary monetary policy is indispensable from the point of view of the economy as a whole. In that it has significantly reduced the threat to the economy and the threat of a deflationary trend, the current monetary policy is also contributing to financial stability – in the short term. Both a deep recession and a deflationary trend would pose a threat to the banking system. In the longer term, a period of low interest rates carries the risk that imbalances will build up. In Switzerland, the current low-interest-rate period has now lasted for over three years. We are – in fact – currently observing increasing signs of adverse developments in the Swiss mortgage and real estate market for residential property.

It has a direct impact on financing conditions; and in doing so it indirectly keeps demand in line with the economy’s supply capacity, at a time when this capacity has been squeezed by external shocks. We need to banish one false suspicion that tends to arise in this context: the idea that monetary policy aims to create a recession, and that a choice has to be made between growth and controlling inflation. This is wrong, first because persistent inflation would mean higher risk premiums and price distortions which, in the longer term, would curtail growth. Second, from a more cyclical viewpoint, euro area activity and employment have proved resilient over recent quarters. There is therefore room to act and I want to make this clear: our achieving of disinflation will not lead to a recession. The goal now is to avoid a faster re-acceleration of demand than supply in the expected 2024-25 recovery. To achieve this, financing conditions obviously cannot remain the same today as they were when there was a demand shortfall, as in the past decade when inflation was too low for too long. Technically, we are talking about monetary tightening or “restrictive” financing conditions: these words obviously sound less appealing, but what do they mean in reality? We are first aiming, through monetary tightening, for an increase in real interest rates at different maturities.
In the past year, however, house price inflation has been higher than implied by these factors. A large share of the increase in 2006 cannot be explained by previous patterns. Developments since the beginning of the 1990s may have engendered expectations that house prices will only continue to rise. This may increase house purchases for pure investment purposes and induce younger buyers to enter the housing market earlier than otherwise. The pronounced fall in saving indicates that households are taking greater chances. BIS Review 15/2007  11  The housing market may now be in a state of euphoria. After a long period of rising house prices, it may therefore be of interest to look at periods of falling prices. Earlier periods of decline have not lasted very long. Generally, the increase has been stronger than the ensuing fall. There are nevertheless examples of periods where house prices exhibited a continuous fall of up to 50 per cent. Earlier periods of declining house prices probably do not provide a perfect guide. The two most wellknown episodes are the fall in house prices around 1990 and the housing market collapse in Christiania (now Oslo) around 1900. The fall in house prices 15-20 years ago was probably ascribable to the very high real interest rates required to tame inflation and stabilise the exchange rate following two decades of very high inflation. This is not a challenge we are facing today.

Dynamic leadership  Your role in Investrust Bank Plc is very crucial. As the Management team, you are providing leadership. Your way of doing things must be exemplary, inspirational, and analytical, with drive and with integrity. Keep abreast with current affairs. As Financial Intermediaries in the economy, the public looks up to you for innovative and effective products. 2. Customer focus  The Bank of Zambia is keen to see that the Zambian public is offered quality service by the Banking industry. We wish to see more innovative products introduced on the market. I am glad to note that Investrust Bank Plc is part of some banks who teamed up under ZAMLINK to offer ATM services to their clients. Such collaboration is commended. It is in the same spirit that you have supported the RTGS and DDACC products. I will be pleased to learn that this conference will deliberate and resolve on how best the Bank will improve service delivery to greater heights. You need to develop financial products that reflect the country’s level of development and not just ape what is being done in developed countries. 3. Sound practices  In recent years, we have read of how “big” institutions have been brought down due to unprofessional conduct by their senior executives. I urge Investrust Bank Plc to pro-actively propagate Corporate governance standards at all levels of Management. I commend the Bank for the newly created dedicated function of Risk Management in its structure. This will provide prudential guidance in the other areas of operations.
BIS Review 160/2009  13  declined. When the situation on the financial markets normalises we expect the credit multiplier to return to its earlier level (Figure 14). 3 Figure 14 The credit multiplier SEK billion and ratio 2500  20 M oney supply M 2 (left scale) M onetary base (left scale) Credit multiplier (right scale)  18  2000  16 14  1500  12 10  1000  8 6  500  4 2  0  0 02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  Note. M2 consists of the general public’s holdings of banknotes and coins and their deposits in the banks on call and other deposits at longer durations. The broken line gives an example of a possible adjustment to a normal level. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. The Riksbank’s capital currently amounts to around SEK 64 billion. The return on the capital is intended to fund the Riksbank’s activities. It should also cover any losses that might arise in the Riksbank's activities. This could be losses arising in the daily management of the Riksbank's financial assets or when the Riksbank provides liquidity assistance to the banks. One item on the balance sheet that has increased over the past year is the revaluation account. This is where unrealised gains and losses are booked that comprise the difference between the purchase value and current market value of the Riksbank’s assets.

An ordinary person, with a few hundred or a few thousand dollars to invest, may find it perfectly convenient to invest in currency, and to store most of it in a safety-deposit box, one that the person may well have already rented to store important papers or other valuables. A large corporation, in contrast, likely would find dealing in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  currency extremely costly. So the proposition may be refined further to state that different economic agents will be more or less willing to invest in negative rate investments to the extent that diseconomies of scale make their costs of handling currency higher or lower than others’. Vaults introduce some additional considerations affecting the costs of holding currency. Often, the costs of holding currency securely, by having a safety deposit box or a vault, are fixed costs. Once one has a vault, or has rented a safety deposit box, the costs of storing additional currency in it, up to its capacity, is nil. This suggests that there is a dynamic element to the economics of avoiding negative interest rates: the longer the negative rates are expected to persist, and the lower they are, the more favorable are the returns to investing in a vault. Once the vault investment has been made, maintaining negative rates would likely become more difficult.
It bridges time. The money we spend today could have been earned from past accomplishments or could be borrowed from future ones. Money is also Memory for a country and its people. Money, after all, can be a piece of art in everyone’s pocket. Far from being “barren”, our banknotes are a celebration of the UK’s heritage, a salute to its culture, a testament to the great achievements of its most notable individuals. In short, money has not just economic value; it has cultural value. By depicting characters on our banknotes, we celebrate those who have advanced British thought, spurred innovation, shown exceptional leadership, shaped this diverse society and forged our common values. The great statesman Sir Winston Churchill will feature on the next £ note, unveiled on 2nd June, and issued in September, replacing the prison reformer Elizabeth Fry. The renowned author Jane Austen will feature on the £ note, which will be issued in 2017, replacing the ground-breaking scientist Darwin. 1  Hicks, J R (1967), Critical Essays in Monetary Theory. 2  “I am what I am” or “Stupid is as Stupid Does”. 3  A moniker used by Kocherlakota. See Kocherlakota, N (1998), “Money is Memory”, Journal of Economic Theory, 81 (2). 4  Book I, Chapter 4 “On the Origin and Use of Money” of Smith, A (1776), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. 5  Kocherlakota (Ibid.)

Equity and derivatives exchanges are consolidating globally in the bid to establish greater market share and to expand product offerings. The New York Stock Exchange-EURONEXT cross-Atlantic merger to create the first multi-time-zone exchange, and the recently announced merger between the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange could lead to more centralized liquidity pool for derivatives trading in the US and Europe. Asian exchanges can do more - TSE can take greater leading role The consolidation trend has yet to reach Asia and Asian exchanges may face the risk of marginalisation. In order to remain relevant, the Asian exchanges may need to explore ways to deepen collaboration and product differentiation in the face of strong competition. In Asia, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is the largest stock exchange by market capitalization. Since its establishment in 1878, it has grown to be the 2nd largest bourse globally, with a market capitalization of its listed companies exceeding $ trillion, second only to the New York Stock Exchange. It also registers high average daily trading volume for domestic equities of about $ billion for 2005. I understand that the Tokyo Stock Exchange is currently in talks with major exchanges about alliances and I am heartened to hear its efforts to work more closely with the Asian exchanges. For example, the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Singapore Exchange have been discussing about such strategic cooperation which would benefit both markets and their investors, including the possible trading linkage, and I urge both parties to work together more closely.
Rajan, “Has financial development made the world riskier?”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No 11728, 2005; G. Jiménez, S. Ongena, J.-L. Peydro and J. Saurina, “Hazardous times for monetary policy: what do 23 million loans say about the impact of monetary policy on credit risk?”, CEPR Discussion Paper, No 6514, 2007; V. Ioannidou, S. Ongena and J.-L. Peydro, “Monetary policy, risk-taking and pricing: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment”, NBER Summer Institute, 2009; A. Maddaloni and J.-L. Peydro, “Bank risk-taking, securitisation, supervision and low interest rates: evidence from lending standards”, ECB Working Paper Series, forthcoming. 32  BIS Review 10/2010  process. I will obviously not go into all of them, given the extent of the work in progress, but I will mention a few initiatives. First of all, the regulation of the banking system must be reviewed, with new rules constraining its assets and balance sheet structure. In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced a reform package aiming to strengthen global capital and liquidity regulations. Capital requirements will be more stringent, thanks to the improved quality, consistency and transparency of the regulatory capital base. Proposals include a counter-cyclical capital buffer, and measures to promote provisioning over the cycle and to mitigate the possible excess cyclicality arising from the minimum capital requirements. 12 Measures concerning the role of external ratings and the treatment of securitisation have also been announced. Better risk coverage is also needed, which is capable of capturing major on and off-balance sheet risks and derivative-related exposures.

However, they also reflect supply and demand factors. On the whole, developments in credit appear to have been, up to now, in line with historical regularities, according to which loans to firms typically lag the economic cycle by a couple of quarters. In fact, credit flows remained positive, even during the period of the most severe contraction in economic activity, presumably as a result of the growing use of credit lines and revolving credit facilities. 23 Therefore, lending to firms can be expected to remain subdued even in the early stages of economic recovery, but it cannot be ruled out that supply factors will continue to restrict credit for some months. 24 The flow of loans to households began to grow again at the end of last year. The quarterly survey on bank lending indicates that the degree of tightening adopted by banks for the granting of credit to firms declined over the last few months of 2009, but remain positive (see Figure 1). It is interesting to note that among the factors that affect banks’ restrictive intentions, neither the one concerning the liquidity position of the banks themselves nor the one concerning access to financial markets seems significant any longer. Both factors now contribute in a positive way to the intentions of banks to grant credit. Considerations relating to the prospects for economic growth and those linked to specific sectors of the economy remain restrictive, but the degree of restriction is declining sharply.
Indeed, in the aforementioned article, the German Minister of Finance also refers to the need to have a common insolvency framework for all euro area banks, while acknowledging the existence of national barriers, which would have to be eliminated to avoid a fragmented financial market. Financial union Allow me in the final part of my address to look beyond the Banking Union and refer to the Financial Union. I earlier signalled the importance of introducing a genuine deposit guarantee scheme, eliminating national barriers and harmonising specific regulatory areas. But other elements are also needed to further progress towards a true Financial Union. In this respect, developing deep and integrated capital markets will undoubtedly help strengthen the euro area’s capacity to cushion itself against macrofinancial shocks. Naturally, I am talking about the Capital Markets Union (CMU). This is a project that will complement the Banking Union, promoting a cross-border financial sector enabling economic agents to mitigate national asymmetric shocks. The Capital Markets Union project was launched in 2015 with the aim of “unlocking funding for European growth”, i.e. promoting not only the development but also the integration of European capital markets with a view to diversifying the funding sources available. However, the project has languished until recently. Testifying to this is the fact that the year scheduled for its launch was, originally, 2019. Evidently, this goal has not been achieved. That said, the importance of this project has but increased since 2015, particularly in the context of Brexit.

14.1.2020  Informational breakfast “The European Banking Union” Club Diálogos para la Democracia Margarita Delgado Deputy Governor  Good morning. Many thanks, Miguel, for your kind introductory words. My appreciation, too, to Unicaja and the Club Diálogos para la Democracia, in particular their chairman, Antonio Gavilanes, for inviting me to take part in today’s colloquium. As you well know, Diálogos para la Democracia was founded in 1976 as a debate forum that sought to provide ideas and solutions to the numerous problems arising in a society which, at that time, was in transition towards democracy. Evidently, societies evolve, and new problems arise which we must address. This is why this type of forum remains as necessary today as ever. Undoubtedly, since our democratic transition, one of the key landmarks has been our accession to what was then known as the European Economic Community on 1 January 1986, over 34 years ago. The importance of this landmark in shaping our society and our economy has been enormous. Despite this importance, I believe that knowledge in Spanish society of Europe’s institutions and regulatory framework is, very often, scant. This is why I greatly appreciate this opportunity to discuss a European project I consider most important, namely the Banking Union. Allow me to begin by acknowledging that this is a topic I am somewhat biased about.