samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
This is where the introduction of APIs and the greater harmonisation of data through the important move to ISO 20022 can really make a difference. These building blocks have the potential to improve compliance processes and address data handling issues within legacy technology platforms, and maximise the positive impact of the technical, operational and regulatory process changes advanced under the other focus areas. Focus Area E is different: it is more exploratory and long term in nature. It includes assessing the potential for innovative new propositions such as central bank issued digital currencies (CBDCs), privately issued stablecoins and areas that are even less developed such as multilateral payment platforms. These innovations are still in their infancy on a domestic, let alone global, level. But if in time they are introduced, it is really important to consider the possible cross-border benefits they could bring. Importantly, real progress can only be made in these building blocks if work on the earlier building blocks has delivered. Issues around operating hours, AML checks and messaging harmonisation to name but a few will be relevant for these more far reaching innovations. The Roadmap  A broad set of building blocks needs a broad set of players to deliver them. And that is why the Stage 3 roadmap is so important. The FSB, working with the CPMI and other relevant international organisations and standard-setting bodies, today published an ambitious but achievable roadmap to deliver these building blocks including initial actions and milestones 7.

Cross-border Payments – Innovating in a Changing World Speech given by Victoria Cleland, Executive Director, Banking, Payments and Innovation  Central Bank Payments Conference 13 October 2020  I would like to thank Michael Pywell, Michaela Costello, Laurie Roberts and Cameron Brooks for their assistance in preparing this speech. 1  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  Introduction  I was delighted to be invited to speak at this event, during such an exciting time in central banking and the payments industry. I am sorry that we are unable to all meet face to face, not least as it was originally hoped for this conference to take place in Athens. I cannot offer you the Greek sunshine, but I would like to introduce some Greek philosophy to get us started. Plato taught us that ‘Necessity is the Mother of Invention’ - this year’s virtual conference is a great example of that. So thank you to Jean-Michel and the team for their flexibility and ingenuity in holding this conference during such challenging times. And necessity and invention are at the heart of payments too. Every one of us needs to make payments. While the medium of exchange might have undergone considerable invention and innovation since Plato’s day, the importance of being able to exchange money safely and efficiently has not.
The introduction of the SNB policy rate in June 2019 marked the end of the SNB’s use of Libor in its monetary policy strategy. With this change, the SNB also eliminated Libor as its communication instrument. The change sent a clear signal to the financial markets that the end of the Libor era is inevitable. In addition, the switch ensured that our conditional inflation forecast for the next three years, a core element of our monetary policy strategy, will continue to be based on an existing and economically meaningful interest rate over the entire forecast horizon. To be sure, the significance of the money market extends far beyond its use in the transmission of monetary policy. The money market also plays a vital role in the economy’s credit transmission process. If money markets do not function properly, the credit extension process across the entire financial system will deteriorate, with serious consequences for the real economy. In times of financial system stress, ensuring that the money markets continue to function well becomes even more consequential, because efficient liquidity redistribution between banks and unencumbered lending are especially important for the economy in such circumstances. During the Global Financial Crisis from 2007 to 2009, the money markets were regularly compared with the bloodstream of a living organism, delivering oxygen to the body’s vital organs. The coronavirus crisis has certainly confirmed the fundamental importance of having well-functioning money markets. Finally, money market interest rates serve as reference rates for the whole economy.

More importantly, though, the money market continues to play a crucial role in the implementation of the SNB’s monetary policy, even though much has changed in the Swiss franc money market and in the SNB’s implementation of monetary policy in recent years. For instance, we now use the SNB policy rate rather than the Libor target range to communicate the desired level of money market interest rates. And the most representative money market rate in Swiss francs is no longer the unsecured three-month Libor, but the secured SARON (Swiss Average Rate Overnight). Moreover, since 2015, the negative interest rate on the sight deposits that banks and other financial market participants hold at the SNB has been our main instrument for steering short-term interest rates. These are some of the reasons why we are focusing on the money market today. First, we will explore the significance of the money market for the economy and the SNB. We will ask why the market is so important, and we will examine the roles played by three particular interest rates. They are the SNB policy rate, which is a communication tool; the negative interest rate on sight deposits held by banks at the SNB, which is an instrument for implementing monetary policy; and SARON, the rate for overnight funds on the secured interbank money market. We will then reflect on the current environment. How does the money market work in an environment of negative interest rates? How does the SNB steer money market rates in negative territory?
In our baseline scenario, we continue to forecast that GDP will gradually regain higher expansion rates, backed by favorable external conditions, the end of the mining investment adjustment, no big macroeconomic mismatches and a clearly expansionary monetary policy stance. This scenario also assumes that fiscal policy will remain on its consolidation path, expressed in the immediate future in the upcoming budget aligned with the Administration’s commitments. All this in a context in which potential growth steadily approaches trend-consistent levels. Accordingly, our projections show no major changes compared to our June estimates. For this year, we foresee that the economy will grow between 1.25% and 1.75% (1% to 1.75% in June). For 2018, we continue to expect growth to pick up, to a range between 2.5% and 3.5%, identical to our June forecast. On the expenditure side, our growth forecast for private consumption is slightly adjusted upward in 2017, considering the rebound of the real wage bill observed so far, the recovery of confidence indicators, the necessary replenishment of durable goods inventories and an appreciation of the real exchange rate. In investment, the downward adjustment of projections for 2017 stems primarily from construction, including the mining, infrastructure and housing components. This latter one because of the high stock of new homes for sale that still persists.

The pace of the further steps will take into account actual activity and inflation data with some optionality and gradualism, but we should at least move towards the neutral rate ii. And let me stress this: we will carefully monitor developments in the effective exchange rate, as a significant driver of imported inflation. A euro that is too weak would go against our price stability objective. More structurally, a key question is whether we are heading towards a fragmented International Financial System, at the expense of smooth trade and financial transactions? Despite the challenges, (I) we shouldn’t abandon, as a “creative frontier” on the horizon, the idea of cooperative multilateral International Financial System and (II) we should definitely develop the international role of the euro as a realistic step forward. **  Page 2 sur 7 I. We shouldn’t abandon, as a “creative frontier”, the idea of a cooperative multilateral International Financial System 1. The reasons why the topic of a renewed IFS has progressively faded to the background Since the 1970s, not much has happened to the international financial system. While the Bretton Woods system with fixed exchange rates and a gold anchor disappeared when the convertibility of the USD into gold came to end, the new international monetary system remained based on the USD. This dollar-based system gradually incorporated greater exchange rate flexibility. It allowed for a boom in trade and capital flows.
Elvira Nabiullina: Review of recent inflation developments in Russia and economic outlook Statement by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, in the follow-up to the Board of Directors meeting, Moscow, 10 September 2021. * * * Good afternoon, W e have made the decision to raise the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% per annum and we hold open the prospect of further rises at the upcoming meetings. Our today’s decision is based on the following. First, the economy is returning to a balanced growth path. Although the pandemic persists, economic activity bounced back to its pre-pandemic levels already in the second quarter of 2021. Moreover, excluding the oil sector where production is still limited due to the OPEC+ agreement, output in the economy has not only recovered, but returned to the trend, to the growth path observed before the outbreak of the pandemic. Employment has restored almost completely. According to July data, the unemployment rate is close to its record lows. In other words, a further development of the economy and output growth will predominantly depend on the growth rate of labour productivity. According to the Bank of Russia’s estimate, taking into account the structural measures implemented by the Government, the pace of such balanced, or potential GDP growth, which is the same, will equal from 2% to 3% annually. Of course, the development of the economy is uneven. The pandemic caused significant changes in the work and everyday life of both households and businesses.

In 2017, Shanghai-Singapore trade amounted to $ 17.5 billion1, an increase of 33.8% from 2016. On the investment front, Singapore has been China’s largest foreign investor for five consecutive years. Shanghai was Singapore’s second largest investment destination in China while Singapore was also Shanghai’s second largest foreign investor in 2017. With growing affluence of Shanghai’s resident population, Shanghai continues to be an attractive investment destination for Singapore companies. b. Similarly, Shanghai companies view Singapore as an important Asian commercial and financial hub as they expand internationally. As of end 2017, there were close to 110 Shanghai companies in Singapore, with more than $ 6 billion in investments2. c. Notably, Singapore Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing visited Shanghai  from 4 to 6 November 2018 for the inaugural China International Import Expo (“CIIE”), which allowed Singapore companies to take part in business matching sessions and explore collaborations with Chinese partners to enter and expand into China. d . During Premier Li’s recent visit to Singapore, both sides welcomed the discussion  between Singapore and Shanghai to establish a comprehensive mechanism for cooperation. The new platform will focus on Belt and Road Initiative (“BRI”), modern and financial services, urbanisation and sustainable development, technology and innovation, and people-to-people exchange. This new strategic, progressive and comprehensive platform will expand and deepen China-Singapore engagements.
Such reforms will take time. Immune system The situation in Europe illustrates how difficult it can be to curb a crisis once it has arisen. It might therefore be wise to give priority to crisis prevention. A healthy economic system is less vulnerable. Crises can be curbed – or even avoided – by boosting the resilience of the economy. Rather than treating the disease after it has taken hold, much can be accomplished by strengthening the economy’s immune system. The financial crisis revealed deficiencies and system failures worldwide. Many governments and households had taken on too much debt. US investment banks such as Lehman Brothers operated a high-risk business model with low levels of equity. European banks were too dependent on short-term funding in international markets. In a period of growth, it is easy for banks to obtain funding. But the system is fundamentally unstable. Without adequate capital requirements in the banking system, credit growth can spiral out of control. Hayek gave lectures on this topic at the London School of Economics in the early 1930s. 4 The LSE is still home to many economists who argue against the risks of debt-financed growth. 5 Solid banks are built in good times. Solid banks bolster the resilience of the economy and make crises easier to manage. Since the financial crisis, the G20 countries have implemented substantial changes in the global regulatory framework for banks.

In such a case, what at the very beginning could be perceived as a more relaxing financial environment that would provide a competitive priority, would soon leave the place to recycling of problems that were at the root of this crisis, decreased investors’ confidence and increased financial and social costs for recovery. Naturally, each country will adapt these standards to the degree of current financial system development, its composition and depth, as well as to its outlook. It is important to emphasise that these measures would be insufficient, if not accompanied by more general policies, aiming at diversifying sources that contribute to economic equilibrium growth, financing the economic agents, improving the legal framework of business development and following sound macroeconomic policies. Allow me now to deal with the situation of our financial system and share with you some stances, which we have generally discussed even previously. The stagnant situation of the financial system during the last year was dictated by the banking system performance, because of its weight. The rest of the financial system, represented by insurance companies and other non-bank financial institutions, underwent a good growth. Regardless of this, their share to the financial system remains low. The banking sector was faced with liquidity constraints in the last quarter of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009.
While the financial economy is in principle only a reflection of the real economy and vice versa, changes can take place as to which component is in the driving seat. A well-developed analysis of both sides would probably improve the basis for decision-making in monetary policy. Structural changes in the financial markets make it difficult to interpret developments and to find stable correlations between, for instance, the quantity of money and inflation, although this is true for many parts of the economy. It BIS Review 72/2000  2  applies, for instance, to methods for estimating such central variables as how many unused resources there are in the economy and how great the potential growth can be. Different methods then produce different results. The ECB is an example of a central bank that builds up its analysis from the real side and from the financial side - monetary policy rests on two pillars. There are partly historical reasons for monetary policy strategy being conducted in this way. Their strategy is perhaps not the best way to take financial trends into consideration. The risk with such a clear division is that the fact that it is actually about mirror images is disregarded and that the consistency between the real and financial analysis is lost. The advantage is that financial trends can clearly be taken into consideration when monetary policy decisions are made. In the second place, we can make different appraisals of the risk picture for the price trend during the forecast period.

Scope for major differences, despite a common strategy Even if there is agreement on the strategy for monetary policy, there is, of course, considerable scope for differences in assessments of where the interest rate should be in each situation. In the first place, the Executive Board can make different assessments of the most probable price tendency. As we know, economics is not an exact science and forecasts of prices and growth potential always rest on many assessments of an enormous mass of information and correlations. Models can never capture the complexity of the economy and how people’s economic decisions interact and must therefore always be regarded as one of many aids in assessments. The Riksbank uses a lot of different approaches and indicators to make assessments. The focus of the Riksbank’s analysis has been until now on the real economy and how it affects price trends. In many areas, we have come further than other central banks, while we have not come so far as regards the analysis of different financial aggregates and their linkage with inflation and real demand. An endeavour has certainly been made to take into account information provided by the development of the quantity of money and growth of credit. However, we have not for instance developed methods that can give guidance as to the level of indebtedness and the quantity of money that is compatible with the long-term sustainable growth of the economy on the basis of the inflation target.
Despite very high demand for Swiss francs, the percentage fell from 21% to 15% between 2008 and 2014; since negative interest was introduced, it has fallen further and now stands at only about 11% (cf. chart 7). Conversely, the share of domestic investors has risen. This group often favours domestic bonds for their long-term investments, or is obliged to hold a given percentage of such bonds for regulatory reasons. Nonetheless, demand from foreign investors remains strong in some segments of the Swiss franc bond market, notably that for money market debt register claims. How do we explain this apparent paradox? One contributory factor is the distortions on the FX swap market mentioned before. While they make borrowing more expensive for foreign issuers, they have the opposite effect for foreign investors and offer special arbitrage opportunities. This allows investors from the US dollar or euro areas to achieve higher returns on a hedged basis. 5 The weekly auctions have been clearly oversubscribed, as can be seen from chart 8. Although the average yield to maturity is very low, bids have been significantly higher than actual allocation (blue), with some 60% of outstanding money market debt register claims currently in the hands of foreign investors. All in all, we can say that, despite strong demand for Swiss francs and low interest rates in Switzerland, the outstanding volume of the Swiss franc bond market has barely changed.

chart 12).4 The negative interest rate affected the entire banking system, and Danmarks Nationalbank found itself in uncharted monetary policy terrain.5 The introduction of negative interest in Denmark showed that moderately negative deposit rates are a viable monetary policy instrument. Concerns that lowering interest rates into negative territory could potentially precipitate a flight to cash had previously dissuaded central banks from using this measure. When interest must be paid on bank deposits or money market instruments, holding cash in a vault may appear more advantageous. However, this too entails high risk, and, in the case of large sums, sizeable costs in terms of logistics, storage and insurance. Such costs can outweigh those of moderately negative interest rates; in Denmark, a flight to cash did not take place. What is my interim conclusion for this second phase? Once the interest rate instrument had come up against its limits, the euro crisis forced central banks in neighbouring countries to deploy unconventional measures. In doing so, these central banks were able to regain a certain room for manoeuvre in influencing monetary conditions. At the same time, they had crossed into uncharted monetary policy terrain, since practical experience of calibrating these unconventional measures and of gauging their effects was still limited in comparison to that of the conventional interest rate instrument. This second phase shows that unconventional measures can have a role to play in influencing monetary conditions.
In other words, the impact of the fluctuations observed in financial markets in May and June on the consumption tendency is likely to be of a temporary nature. Therefore, the said impact is expected to lead only to a limited decline in total demand. Furthermore, it is estimated that the relative depreciation of the New Turkish lira will boost net foreign demand. Despite the likely positive impact of the demand conditions observed in the second half of the year on inflation, it does not seem possible to attain the 5-percent inflation target set for end-2006. However, as a result of the measures taken by the Central Bank from June onwards, we expect the secondary effects of the developments in exchange rates and commodity prices on inflation to remain limited, the likely pressure on 2007 inflation to diminish along with the recovery observed and the downward trend in inflation to continue. Parallel to the recovery - albeit limited - observed in inflation expectations in August and the relatively more favorable course of international liquidity conditions observed recently, the Monetary Policy Committee stated at its last meeting that the medium-term inflation outlook was much better compared to previous months and decided to keep short-term interest rates unchanged. However, as the risks against the disinflation process still persist, the cautious stance of monetary policy will be maintained. In this framework, if any development that would deteriorate inflation in the medium term arises, the Central Bank will not hesitate to resort to further monetary tightening.

Lastly, I would like to emphasize that the level of the current account deficit is not so important in terms of ensuring that it does not follow a volatile course and is not perceived as a significant risk factor. However, in an environment where turbulences are observed in the markets and uncertainty perceptions are increasing, it is reasonable to expect a surge in the perceptions of fragility in the current account deficit, as well as the popularity of these perceptions. The current account deficit is a closely followed indicator. We are also aware of the risk potential of the current account deficit and have been carefully monitoring it in coordination with other agents responsible for the economy. Dear guests, I was most honored to be here in Malatya and to have the chance to share my views on the Bank’s policies and macroeconomic developments with you today. Thank you. 10  BIS Review 89/2006