BIS Review 98/2008  7  Market-driven financial market developments need the support of critical infrastructure, namely: (1) Information that allows efficient decision making and pricing on various asset markets, financial as well as related markets such as real estate market, which are still very lacking in many emerging markets, and may be an area of public support. (2) Legal reforms to ensure an enabling environment for innovation in products and business models for the financial system. And (3) Human resource with proper competency in modern financial and risk management are scarce and is becoming a bottleneck for development. The authority may need to step in to facilitate training and accredition of professional standards, if it has external benefits. Notwithstanding these challenges, however, notable progress has been made by emerging markets in the past decade, much of which is catalysed by comprehensive economic reform in which market-oriented economic and financial liberalization have been the main features. For East Asia, despite the progress made, significant gap still exists in diversification, efficiency and robustness when compared to the role played by financial markets in developed economies. Looking ahead, in addition to the pressure from globalization, the shift in demographic structure will also be an additional pressure. This is to say some smaller emerging markets will face an aging population and the increase in demand for wealth management, while the supply of local products are limited for diversification. This will pose challenges for inter-temporal allocation of resource and risk.

This is perhaps the toughest challenge for emerging markets in this regard. In particular, a heavy focus on maintaining immediate financial and economic stability can often hinder efforts to deliver these very same goals in the long run. Thus, ensuring that the outcome of such trade-offs turn out favorable to the attainment of monetary and financial stability in the long term is perhaps the toughest challenge for emerging markets in the present context. Ladies and Gentlemen, To conclude, despite the challenges presented above, the overall direction of change in emerging market countries in the past decade is fundamentally reassuring. Much has been achieved in terms of strengthening the monetary framework and financial system development, reducing vulnerability to external shocks through the establishment of sizable foreign reserves cushion as well as significant restructuring of external debt currency denomination and maturity profile. These changes make it more likely that the process towards further global financial integration will bring substantial benefits in terms of growth and fewer risks, in terms of financial distress, and ultimately contribute towards a more stable macroeconomic outcome. And with that note, let me now end my lecture this evening. Thank you. References Aguiar, M. and G. Gopinath (2007), “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 115, No. 1, pp. 69-102. Arbache, J. (2004), “Do Structural Reforms Always Succeed?” United Nations University Research Paper No. 2004/58. Bank for International Settlements.