samchain/econo-pairs-v1 huggingface dataset:
These two notions are different. I have said many times, but will keep doing so, that senior managers cannot delegate responsibility. To be fair, many have said to me over the last few years that this change does not make a difference for them as they always thought they were responsible. Good. But, set this against other conversations I have had which have doubted the enforceability of this notion of responsibility. This has concerned, but not distracted me. So, to be clear, responsibility is the central plank of the new Senior Managers Regime. We do want senior managers to feel this responsibility in all that they do and that includes a responsibility for forming and implementing a positive culture throughout the organisation. In this respect culture is no different to strategy; where are we today, where do we aspire to be tomorrow, how will we get there and what risks must we mitigate along the way. Responsibility, as embedded in the Senior Managers Regime, is therefore an important hook to assist in firms’ shaping their own culture, and also to provide regulators with the powers to conduct supervisory oversight and to act when needed. But, let me reiterate that it is not the job of regulators to enforce culture and to change culture. If we have to step in, and occasionally we do, the overriding conclusion is that management has failed. The common theme there is that the incentives facing a firm will determine its culture and will determine its success in terms of outcomes.

The introduction of the Financial Markets Committee (FMC) measures has put in place the foundation for a healthier and more vibrant financial and foreign exchange market. As a result of the strong economic performance in 2017 and the improved sentiments following these measures, the ringgit has strengthened by 14.6% in 2017 and 2018 thus far. The ringgit has also been of the most stable currency in the region. As our economic outlook remains strong, the ringgit will continue to reflect this strength. For Bank Negara, we have always indicated that market forces will determine the value of the ringgit. There has never been a target level for the ringgit exchange rate. With the economy and financial markets constantly evolving, fixation on a particular level of ringgit exchange rate is counterproductive, if not detrimental to the economy. What matters for Bank Negara and all of us here is to ensure that any adjustments taking place is done in a gradual and orderly manner, without causing undue disruptions to businesses and households. The foreign exchange market can sometimes be very fickle. Therefore, we should always remain on our guard, as the global economic and financial conditions may change rapidly following many developments such as normalisation of interest rates, geopolitical risks and the tendency to adopt policies that might curtail open trade. The ringgit’s recent appreciation and stability is not something that we should take for granted. What we have learnt in recent years is to never downplay the unexpected.
He should start his inquiry with an open mind and be ready to reject even the long held views if empirical studies do not support them. But to do so, a researcher should display a fair degree of maturity and necessarily cultivate within himself self-discipline, wisdom, objectivity and equanimity. In this sense, a perfect researcher is like the Buddha who is not guided by biased or prejudiced emotions. Hence, the most important requirement of a researcher is that he should be honest to himself. BIS Review 161/2008  5

Spain has followed the lead of the developed countries, and you should rest assured that CCM will meet all its commitments to depositors and other creditors. Second, the Maastricht Treaty prevents central banks from extending emergency liquidity assistance to an ailing institution, such as CCM, without the appropriate collateral. Given the amounts that might have to be committed, the Spanish Treasury had to provide explicit guarantees to the central bank, so as not to infringe the Treaty’s prohibition on central banks extending "monetary financing" to public Treasuries. *** Having explained the substance of and the reasons behind the urgent replacement of CCM’s directors, allow me to offer greater details on the Banco de España’s past supervisory measures in relation to CCM and its current situation. Before that, however, I should highlight what is a primordial starting point: CCM is a credit institution with a positive net worth. That is to say, and in the vernacular of the press, the institution has no "hole" in its balance sheet. Yet this does not mean it is not facing serious problems, the cause of which must be sought in an inappropriate management of risk and a forceful business expansion – especially in the real estate sector – funded largely through resort to the international bond markets, generating sizable imbalances. Past experience shows that these credit expansion policies are very dangerous if unaccompanied by the related risk control measures since, generally, they usually entail a relaxing of credit standards. Responsibility for these decisions falls on CCM's previous directors.
However, as we know from Slide 10, this masks substantial changes in the underlying density forecasts, with the lower rate mode becoming more prominent. 50  See e.g. Crump et al. (2014), and more recently Brodsky et al. (2016a). 51  Market-implied rates were derived from futures prices at the same time as responses were received from the surveys. 52  Adrian, Crump, and Moench (2013). 14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Finance models make a variety of assumptions that allows them to extract risk premia from asset prices. Once that is done, they can obtain the underlying so-called “physical” probability distribution of the marginal investor – that is, the actual probability she assigns to various outcomes. Brodsky et al. propose a complementary approach, called “tilting,” which is, in a way, the reverse of the finance approach.53 It starts from the survey probability distribution and asks: How much do I have to “tilt” the original distribution – that is, how much probability mass do I have to shift around – to obtain the market-implied path as its mean? There are many ways to tilt or alter the survey distribution such that its mean is the market rate. Our approach is to require that the tilted distribution is as close as possible to the original survey distribution, where the notion of distance is one that is commonly used in statistics, and is based on a measure called relative entropy or Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). This relative entropy approach is nothing new.

Next Steps  I started this talk by noting that we may be in the midst of a leap forwards in payments. This is good news. Innovation – including the innovation some of you in this room are pushing forward as part of the New Payments Architecture project, and the work that the Bank of England is pursuing on RTGS renewal promises to deliver easier, faster, cheaper, and more stable payments. But to ensure that this period of innovation does not end in a leap backwards we need to be sure that regulation keeps pace. Regulation needs to facilitate innovation by avoiding picking winners or losers. Instead we should focus on delivering same risk, same regulation. The protections regulation delivers for your payments should not depend on whether you are paying by cash, card, interbank, or stablecoin. Fortunately, here in the UK we have an opportunity to ensure that regulation remains fit for purpose through this period of change. HM Treasury is currently leading a welcome review of the payments landscape. And there is related work underway in the cross-authority Cryptoassets Task Force that was launched by 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  HM Treasury in 2018, bringing together Bank, FCA and Treasury thinking. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee is supporting this work by providing insight into the financial stability implications of innovation in payments – in December, for the first time ever, its semi-annual Financial Stability Report included a chapter on payments.
The current situation is very different, and while the pace of the recovery is yet to be seen, forecasts for the three-year period 20092011 point at the world economy growing by an average of 2.1% per year, 0.8% for the U.S. 11 In the 1930s, U.S. unemployment soared to 25%, much higher than the 10% projected this time. Also, the world faced a severe deflation in the early 1930s, in some cases sinking  8  Although the evidence shows that financial development is good for economic growth, excessive credit expansion can exacerbate a crisis, as happened during the debt crisis in Latin America (De Gregorio and Guidotti, 1995). 9  One example is the new households’ financial survey of the Central Bank of Chile, which seeks to strengthen the analysis of a sector that is becoming ever more important in our financial system. 10  Evidence provided by Eichengreen and O’Rourke (2009) shows that the first few months of the current crisis are pretty similar to the Great Depression, although in recent months they seem to diverge, because the current episode has begun to show signs of recovery while in the Great Depression the fall continued. 11  For the 1930s, the data come from Maddison (2009), while current growth projections come from Consensus Forecast and investment banks. BIS Review 112/2009  5  below -10%. We do not see that today, and while inflation has fallen dramatically around the world, it remains far from the levels seen during the Great Depression.

However, China’s rapid growth also presents major domestic challenges. The Chinese leadership understands well the dangers of overheating in the economy and has been applying the brakes to bring about a soft landing. In addition, China has to grapple with capital account liberalisation and financial system reforms. India, too, is rising but along a different path. It is rapidly becoming a powerhouse for “soft” infrastructure businesses such as software development, business process outsourcing and creative industries. India, too, has its own set of challenges, particularly in the areas of fiscal and structural reforms. But the Congress-led coalition Government, under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, is committed to the path of reform and liberalisation. Japan appears to be shaking off a decade of sluggish growth. Its recovery is due to the effects of many years of structural reform and strong external demand. But not everyone is convinced that this recovery is self-sustaining. BIS Review 72/2004  1  In ASEAN, peaceful elections and leadership transitions have taken place in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Singapore, too, we have a new Prime Minister and several new Ministers. The new leaders in ASEAN will have the opportunity to address economic and security challenges together, hopefully in a bold, creative and pragmatic manner. The rise of China and India presents both opportunities and challenges for ASEAN. To seize the opportunities and meet the challenges, these new leaders must work with their other colleagues to speed up the integration of the ASEAN economies.
What ASEAN central banks are aiming for is to enable businesses and individuals to make and receive electronic payments more conveniently yet less costly. A prominent example here is the “Asian Payment Network” which translates to full regional ATM interoperability. Through this initiative, an ASEAN  1  World Bank website (2014) (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD)  2  ASEAN-6 includes Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  resident, for instance, can use his or her local ATM card to withdraw cash from a machine in another ASEAN country without having to pay the fees charged by third-party payment providers. 8. We can see that the upcoming realization of the AEC is a springboard for a more vibrant GMS region. However, the benefits for the region go beyond the AEC. I can see some points where tangible outcomes will take place in the near future. 9. The first one is the more integrated production networks of the main industries which dominate the GMS. We all know that the region has a comparative advantage in primary industries which are demanded by other ASEAN countries. This is why we have observed the large inflows of investment into agro-industry, garment and mining sectors. Realizing the high potentials of these sectors, we have also seen contract farming practices in Laos, where key commodities such as corn and sugarcane are produced using advanced technology and practices. 10. The other point concerns the development of infrastructure.

This is particularly important given the lack of well-developed road and rail networks of the region. Countries in the GMS are addressing this through various projects, the main one being the road corridors. The North-South Corridor which connects Yunnan in China, with Myanmar, Laos and Thailand has been completed. Also, the East-West Corridor which links Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar is near completion. This will make the whole region more closely interconnected, hence investments in any of the GMS country stand to benefit the rest. 11. The final point is on the demand side. The GMS will enjoy a larger consumer market base with distinct needs and increased purchasing power. The AEC is home to over 600 million people. In tandem with this is the significant rise of the middle class population. The Asian Development Bank estimates that the share of ASEAN’s middle class is expected to increase to 65% by 2030.3 Moreover, ASEAN continues to pursue closer integration into the global economy through various Free Trade Agreements. This includes China and India, both superpowers at the crossroads of the GMS. Therefore, the AEC will also be an important gateway, connecting the GMS to major markets of the Asia-Pacific region. 12. The bright future is ours for the making. The GMS economies are blessed with abundant resources and promising growth prospects. With the realization of the AEC, the region’s opportunities will be multiplied. Yet there remain important challenges. The bright future is ours only if we work to overcome the challenges together.
The G20 has agreed a wide range of regulatory standards and put in place the mechanisms for deep supervisory cooperation. These Financial Stability Board (FSB) reforms create a platform for cross border financial services between different legal systems and regulatory approaches that achieve similar outcomes for financial stability. This avoids unnecessary  25  See Carney, M (2016), ‘The Spectre of Monetarism’. Rodrik, D. (2011). The globalization paradox: Democracy and the future of the world economy. 27 See Carney, M (2017), ‘A Fine Balance’. 28 Sales are increasingly taking place on-line and over platforms, rather than on the high street. Intangible capital is now more important than physical capital. A hyper-connected, capital-light world, could offers a future that increasingly belongs to small and medium-sized firms, with platforms (such as taskrabbit, Amazon, Etsy, Shopify, and SamaHub) giving them direct stakes in local and global markets. 26  16  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  16  duplication and costly fragmentation while promoting greater competition, enhanced resilience and improved efficiency to the benefit of all our citizens. Conclusion: Is this How the Expansion Ends? Although the economic and financial imbalances in the global economy do not yet appear to contain the seeds of their own demise, global momentum is softening. Monetary policymakers may need to be disciplined and macroprudential authorities, vigilant. Risks from China and from de-globalisation are significant and growing. Could they be how the expansion ends? Protectionism appears already to be having an impact.

This specific point highlights the more general progress that has been made improving the resilience of the core of the financial sector. Banks in most regions are now more likely to be stabilisers rather than amplifiers of shocks. Regulation has made banks less complex and more focused. They lend more to the real economy and less to each other. Trading assets have been cut in half, and interbank lending is down by one-third. And their resilience in most jurisdictions has been transformed. For example, UK banks have CET1 ratios of about 15%, more than three times their pre-crisis level. Their aggregate MREL is 26%. They hold £ trillion  21  Based on all widely traded CLOs in the US and Europe. 12  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  12  of high quality liquid assets, a four-fold increase over the past decade. And their short-term wholesale funding has fallen from 15% to 4% of balance sheets. There is also greater supervisory scrutiny, not least through stringent stress tests. Indeed, in the past few years, major UK banks have been tested against all the major risks I will cover today (from China to inflation scares plus a few others for good measure). The Story Thus Far While there are pockets of risk and global growth is still decelerating, the combination of the policy response and the state of the current imbalances in advanced economies suggest that global growth is more likely than not to stabilise eventually around its new, modest trend.
Ravi Menon: Financial regulation - the way forward Speech by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) City Lecture, Washington DC, 20 April 2017. * * * Lord Meghnad Desai, Chairman of the OMFIF Advisory Board, Mr David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF, Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. I am grateful to OMFIF for organising this City Lecture and giving me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you. The world experienced nine years ago a most devastating financial crisis. In response, we saw the implementation of perhaps the most wide-ranging reforms in financial regulation ever in history. We are now at an inflection point. The phase of active rule-making is drawing to a close. Where do we go from here? The 19th century Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard once said: “Life must be understood backwards, but it must be lived forward.” In the spirit of Kierkegaard, I see two key priorities in the next phase of financial regulation: First, to take stock of the reforms to-date – evaluate their effects, consolidate what we need to preserve, and fine-tune what we need to improve. Second, to position regulation for the technological changes sweeping the financial industry – harness the opportunities they present while managing their risks. Taking stock of post-crisis regulatory reforms Reaffirming the rationale In taking stock of the reforms, let us begin with why we embarked on them.

Out of this came the three European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs), namely the European Banking Authority (EBA) in London, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) in Frankfurt and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in Paris. We discussed whether these three authorities could be merged into one, but that was considered premature. Suggesting such a merger might have delayed the whole political process (Figure 5). Trying to move the three to the same city was considered equally impossible. Figure 5 The EU’s new supervisory structure European Banking Authority (EBA) European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)  European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA)  The second pillar was the European Systemic Risk Board, the ESRB. The main idea with the ESRB was to look beyond the supervision of individual institutions and focus on the risks relevant to the financial system as a whole. There was a widespread feeling that supervisors in many countries could not see the wood for the trees – and certainly not any woods in any other countries. So the new body should work with issues systemic to parts or to the whole of Europe. As time has passed, this task has become known as “macro-prudential supervision”. The institutional set-up of the ESRB Legally, the ESRB is an independent EU body located in Frankfurt and with a Secretariat provided by the European Central Bank. The President of the ECB is also the Chair of the ESRB. The ESRB has no binding powers.
Nonetheless, the transformation of the financial crisis into a real recession has given rise to a second wave of risks to financial stability, whose nature is this time eminently macroeconomic. The Spanish financial system is facing this second wave with the relative advantage of having been less damaged by the first. But that is no guarantee of immunity since the deterioration of the Spanish economy exerts pressure, through various channels,  BIS Review79/2009  3  on banks’ and savings banks’ income statements. I shall discuss this when I turn to the financial system, after having analysed the situation of and outlook for the Spanish economy. The Spanish economy did not escape unscathed from the global contractionary trends, and in 2008 it underwent a far-reaching adjustment. Declines in GDP were evident from the third quarter, leading the economy to post a 0.7% fall in output at year-end in terms of its year-onyear rate. This recessionary pattern became more visible in the first quarter of 2009, when GDP decreased at a year-on-year rate of 3%, while employment was down 6% on its level a year earlier. As at world level, the improvement since in the latest indicators appears to point to some easing of the contractionary trends. The adjustment of the Spanish economy is impacting particularly those domestic spending components which showed the greatest excesses during the long upturn. The origin of this behaviour lies in the overlapping of a series of differing shocks.

However, it remains stronger than expected, mainly supported by private consumption, with households continuing to spend their stock of savings, strong and widespread jobs growth and unemployment at very low levels. In addition, the inflation path may be conditioned by the end of the zero-COVID policy in China and the subsequent reopening of the Chinese economy. Once the surge in infections has passed, the Chinese economy will foreseeably regain dynamism supported by consumption, amid a recovery in mobility and the more contact-intensive activities, along with the release of pent-up demand. Although there is much uncertainty about the extent of this reopening, in January the IMF revised up China's GDP growth outlook for 2023 by 0.8 pp to 5.4%. This growth will have an impact on global economic activity and inflation. Increased Chinese demand will boost euro area activity through the exports channel and thus also drive inflation. In addition, China will exert significant inflationary pressures on energy commodities and metals, as it is one of the world's largest consumers of these items. IMF staff estimated that Chinese domestic demand rising by 1 pp of GDP would lead to an increase in oil prices of almost 10% and in metals prices of between 6% and 12% over a one-year horizon. 12 An increase in China’s gas consumption could also have a particularly strong impact on gas prices, taking into account that China played a very significant dampening role in 2022, when its demand for liquefied natural gas declined by 20%.