
I don't personally, but Clay just posted it.  Yes, we do.  

Unfortunately, it shows that Lopez wasn't as good an example as Nieves would
have been, since his last year numbers were out of line with the previous
years (which I didn't have access to).

The point remains, though; knowing a guy's minor league history is as good
as knowing his major league history, if you know how to read it.


The MLE is not a *projection*, it's an *equivalence*.  It's a "this is how
well he hit *last* year, in major league terms" rating.  So, in essence, he
has *already* reached it.  I would guess (Bob?  Clay?) that essentially half
of all players surpass their previous MLEs in their rookie seasons.  Maybe
more than half, since all of these players are young and improving.


Did they?  Offerman may have been the difference between 4th or 5th place
and last place, but no more.


Sure; they didn't have anyone better.  I suppose they might have gutted the
farm system to acquire Jay Bell or Spike Owen or somebody if they were really
in contention. 


If you'd read what I wrote, you'd be less amazed.  Nowhere do I claim to put
any credence in spring training.  Quite the contrary; I said that Lopez hadn't
done anything that even the bozos who *do* put credence in spring training
could interpret as "failure".  Just because I think spring training numbers
are meaningless doesn't mean that Bobby Cox does; it's just a case of ruling
out one possible explanation for sending Lopez down.


Keith Mitchell did very very well at AA, AAA, and the majors over a season,
then did very, very poorly for a year in AAA.

