COMMERCIAL SPACE NEWS/SPACE TECHNOLOGY INVESTOR NUMBER 22

   This is number twenty-two in an irregular series on commercial 
space activities.  The commentaries included are my thoughts on 
these developments.  

   Sigh... as usual, I've gotten behind in getting this column 
written.  I can only plead the exigency of the current dynamics in 
the space biz.  This column is put together at lunch hour and after 
the house quiets down at night, so data can quickly build up if 
there's a lot of other stuff going on.  I've complied a lot of 
information and happenings since the last column, so I'm going to 
have to work to keep this one down to a readable length.  Have fun! 

CONTENTS:
1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993
2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS
3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD"
4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT" 
5- ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND
6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT
7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED
8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING
9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING
10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP
11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED
12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES
13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH
FINAL NOTES
  
ARTICLES
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1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993
   The US Department of Commerce projects US commercial space sales 
will remain flat in 1993, with current data showing only a 2 percent 
growth over 1992.  As published in "US Industrial Outlook 1993" 
(which was released in January), revenues from the 1993 US space 
business are currently projected to be about $4,890 M. 
   In contrast to previous years when US commercial space sales had 
shown double digits growth rates, this year's projected results are 
driven by the US satellite manufacturing industry, where sales are 
projected to drop from 12 satellites worth $1,300 M in 1992 to 7 
satellites worth $ 670 M in 1993.  The US Industrial Outlook also 
projects U.S. commercial launchers faces flat demand in coming year, 
and while predicting that 1993 revenues will increase 10 percent to 
$450 M, future sales will be "adversely affected by the downward 
revision in Department of Defense launch plans."                           
   Offsetting flat launch revenues and satellite deliveries, 
revenues for fixed and mobile satellite services are projected to 
increase to $1,900 M, primarily driven by increased revenues from 
broadcast and cable TV networks.  Similarly, remote sensing products 
and sales are projected to increase to $250 M in 1993 (up 15%). 

 US COMMERCIAL SPACE REVENUES     1989  1990   1991 1992(r) 1993(e)
 Commercial satellites             900 1,000  1,100  1,300     670
 Satellite services                750   800  1,200  1,500   1,900
   Fixed                          (700) (735)(1,115)(1,275) (1,520)
   Mobile                          (50) ( 65)(   85)(  225) (  380)
 Satellite ground equip            790   860  1,350  1,400   1,560
   Mobile equipment                (40)  (85)  (280)  (352)    ???
 Commercial launches               150   570    380    450     450
 Remote sensing data and services  125   155    190    215     250
 Private microgravity research lab  --    --     --     --      60
                                 ===== =====  ======  =====   =====
   TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUES         2,715 3,385   4,220  4,815   4,890
        (r) = revised data for 1992   (e) = estimated data for 1993
   [Commentary: This is the first look at how the US commercial 
space industry is expected to do in 1993.  In general, not a bad 
report -- with most of the bad news concentrated in the satellite 
manufacturing area.  There, changes of only a few satellites worth 
$100 M or so apiece can substantially influence the annual 
projection.  If we look forward over several years, this market 
sector should retain strong sales as US firms have been very 
successful in regaining international market share in the satellite 
business. 
   Furthermore, sales of satellite ground equipment should go up in 
the next revision of this data, expected to be released about mid-
year.  Data on mobile satellite ground equipment sales (including 
such items as GPS receivers and portable satellite terminals) 
appears to be missing from the January data set.  DoC usually 
publishes a listing of  "Space Business Indicators" in mid-year, and 
the next revision of commercial space revenues should be released 
then.  I expect the revised revenues should easily top $5,000 M, if 
the mobile satellite ground equipment are added back into the 
numbers, and the year should show about a 10% overall market growth. 
   Looking beyond this year's data, future markets look quite 
promising.  The DoC projects satellite service revenues could top 
$3,000 M by 1995 if new mobile satellite services and direct 
broadcasting are implemented as planned, and that mobile satellite 
station sales are expected to continue to growth at 15-20 % per year 
through the mid 1990's.  My numbers are somewhat more pessimistic 
for near-term market growth, but I agree the trend should be for 
substantial growth in US commercial space sales over at least the 
next 5-10 years.  (My pessimism is due to more conservative 
assumptions on market capture and growth in LEO communications and 
satellite direct broadcasting services.  I don't believe all of the 
current players in the yet-to-be-born LEO communications satellite 
market and in the yet-to-be-proven direct broadcasting market will 
be financial successes, nor that sales growth will be as explosive 
as currently projected.) 
   It should also be noted this year's DoC data is the first 
release to show revenues from privately funded microgravity research 
facilities.  The $60 M shown in the Janurary data is primarily for 
the Spacehab module, planned for launch in April on the Space 
Shuttle, but also hidden in these numbers are the projected first 
sales from the COMET orbital launch and recovery experiment module.] 

2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS
   McDonnell Douglas Corporation, which builds and markets the Delta 
launch vehicle has won two important launch contracts.  Motorola 
Inc. announced in mid February that it had selected the Delta to 
launch most of the satellites in the 66-satellite Iridium LEO 
communications constellation, and in mid April, McDonnell Douglas 
was awarded the USAF Medium Launch Vehicle III contract. 
   The launch services contract with Motorola for the Iridium 
constellation launch is for at launch of least 45 Iridium 
satellites.  Another 21 satellites have been contracted to be 
launched by Khrunichev Enterprise in Russian on 3 Proton vehicle 
launches.  These 45 satellites planned for the Delta will be 
launched 5 at a time,  providing for at least 9 launches.  
Additional satellites in the Iridium constellation, such as a 
planned on-orbit spares, may also be launched on Delta.  Although 
details of the launch services contract were reported to be 
negotiation, and not yet final. 
   The USAF MLV contract also went to MDC, bidding a variant of 
their Delta II launcher.  This contract is only initially worth $7.5 
million, but establishes a set of launch options for up to 36 
launches, encompassing launches from 1996 through 2002.  These 
launches will deploy the next generation of the USAF's Global 
Positioning System Block IIR navigation satellites, plus other 
programs.  First option for to meet the USAF launch options is 
expected to be exercised this year, after which the USAF is expected 
to request launches of up to 6 Deltas per year for at least 6 years.  
Under this contract the USAF can also request "launch on demand" 
services from MDC for the 1996-2002 time period, with a launch to 
occur within 40 days of the request. 
    [Commentary:  If these two contracts are fulfilled, they should 
provide an excellent business base for MDC's Delta launch program 
through the turn of the century.  Combined, these two contracts have 
a potential for about 45 launches, worth about $2,200 M to MDC, and 
sustaining a core business base of $300-400 M/year.  Other contracts 
for international and commercial payloads, as well as for NASA 
Medium ELV-class payloads, will add to this business base -- keeping 
MDC as a viable commerical launch company. 
    However, it should be noted there are risk elements in these 
contracts.  Motorola's Iridium LEO communications constellation has 
not yet received a US Federal Communications Commission license for 
operation in the U.S., nor has Motorola lined up all the financing 
and financial partners for the Iridium venture.  Without these 
approvals or financial backing there will be no Iridium launches.  
But, hopefully, these uncertainties will be settled this year. 
   Similarly, the USAF MLV III program has been the target of 
several Congressional actions which have slowed the production of 
the GPS Block IIR satellites and deleted the funding for the MLV III 
program in favor of the USAF NLS/"Spacelifter" program.  At this 
time, while it appears the MLV III contract will be executed, future 
funding for the MLV III and other USAF commercial launch contracts 
is being reconsidered as part of national space launch strategy 
reviews.  Some opinions expressed from within the Administration and 
Congress propose cancellation of all "ELV upgrade" programs 
(including the MLV programs) in favor of the proposed "Spacelifter" 
program.  Such opinions may have some weight in this year's budget 
deliberations, particularly as DoD funds will be more difficult to 
find in the shrinking US Defense budget.] 
 
3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD"
   The first commercial license to operate a remote sensing 
satellite was approved in early February by the US Department of 
Commerce's Office of Space Commerce.  A license was granted to 
WorldView Imaging Corporation of Oakland, California to build and 
operate a pair of LEO imaging satellites to provide multi-spectral 
images of the Earth. 
   [Commentary:  There has been little data released on this venture 
by WorldView and the DoC, other than the announcement of the 
operating and construction license.  This was reported to be at the 
request of WorldView.  Most industry speculation identifies this new 
venture as a "Star Wars" spinoff, using SDI-type technology to 
provide digital Earth sensing data, and heavily integrated into 
digital GIS databases for remote sensing/GIS users.  Most probable 
customers for this service include exploration geologists, 
agricultural planners, and urban planners.  
   It is noteworthy this is the first commercial venture under the 
1992 Land Remote Sensing Policy Act.  The Act, as passed last 
November, provides that remote sensing data gathered from private remote 
sensing craft may be sold to users at differing prices.  Prior to 
this act, remote sensing data from all satellites had to be sold to 
all users at the same prices, and private remote sensing ventures 
would have had to sell at the government-set Landsat data prices. 
   There are rumors of several other potential commercial remote 
sensing ventures working their way through the system at different 
stages of development.  I think the large Landsat and SPOT satellite 
systems will provide the majority of the satellite remote sensing 
data market for the next decade or so.  In contrast to these large, 
government-sponsored remote sensing systems, smaller market ventures 
such as WorldView and others can exploit market niches and use 
innovative technology, and I believe, can find profitability on the 
margin.  I predict there may be some very interesting ventures 
appearing in the next year or so.] 
                 
4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT" 
   Wall Street investment house Morgan Stanley thinks General 
Dynamic's Space Systems Division could still be a moneymaker, 
despite having failed in the last 3 Atlas launches.  In a recent 
analyst's report Morgan Stanley said "We are more than ever 
convinced that if the company can return the Atlas to its historical 
95%-plus success rate, this will become a highly profitable, cash-
generating unit."  Based upon discussions with GD's corporate 
management, Morgan Stanley projects that if the Atlas problems are 
cleared up the unit could see $70 M in earnings per year by 1995 and 
$100 M per year by 2000.  This is based upon GD's projection of 
capturing about 10 Atlas launches per year on the world market. 
   [Commentary:  Three failures in a row of their launch system has 
hurt General Dynamic's Space Systems Division.  Since GD has 
restructured to only keep a very few profitable core businesses, 
many market pundits have been speculating GD's space business might 
be next to be sold.  The Morgan Stanley report indicates GD's Space 
Systems Division has some potential as a moneymaker, despite current 
problems -- if they can get their act together.  Sales are projected 
to be about $560 M in 1993, which will probably generate a loss of 
about $25 M.  If GD can capture their projected share of the space 
launch market, and if they have managed to clean up the reliability 
of their Atlas launchers, then they could generate healthy profits 
from those sales.  But until they demonstrate the Atlas Centaur 
program is back on track, this division will continue to show 
substantial losses. 
   In response to the sell-off rumors, in my opinion, this operation 
is not a really good candidate for takeover and quick profitability.  
To do such a takeover, the current set corporate and divisional 
management would be replaced with another set from outside the firm.  
In GD SSD's case, to get the division back on track, the management 
team will have to concentrate hard on the technical problems with 
the Atlas Centaur, as well as in selling Atlas services.  This would 
indicate only another firm with experience in rocket launch 
operations could find such talent in-house, and be able to convince 
customers to buy their launch services.  Optimally, the firm would 
have substantial liquid rocket experience, and experience in 
marketing space technology internationally as well.  Candidates for 
this might be TRW, Rockwell, Lockheed, and Martin, and possibly 
McDonnell Douglas and Boeing.  But most of those firms have cash 
flow problems (MDC), have had a substantial business contraction 
(Boeing and MDC), are involved with other launch firms (Lockheed), 
or have taken on substantial debt (Martin).  And coming up with the 
$700-1500 M purchase price for the division is a big chunk of 
change for any company.] 
 
5 - ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND
   Arianespace, the operator of the Ariane launch system, is 
projecting a dip in launch demand in the late 1990's.  In early 
February, Arianespace released their annual market survey, which 
detailed their projection of the space transportation market for the 
next decade. 
   Over short run, Arianespace expects to retain their dominant 
position and sustain a majority share of the launch market.  Of 54 
international and commercial launches planned through 1995, Ariane 
holds contracts for 31, General Dynamics' Atlas vehicle holds 14 
contracts, McDonnell Douglas' Delta holds 7, and Great Wall's Long 
March vehicle holds 2 launch contracts. 
   Three-quarters of future launch contracts for which Ariane can 
compete are projected to come from communications satellites with 
the remaining 25% split between weather, Earth observation, and 
scientific satellites.  Most of the future telecommunications demand 
growth is predicted to come from the Asia/Pacific region. 
   Arianespace expects the current market consolidation of 
individual satellite operators into regional or national groups will 
continue, with these groups investing in heavier satellites with 
larger communications payloads carrying more transponders. 
Arianespace predicts the average mass of telecommunications 
satellites should increase by 20 % over today's average level, to 
about 3000 kg in GEO. 
   Demand for commercial launch services is expected to remain 
strong over the next three years, but in the second half of the 
decade, Arianespace predicts demand will decrease.  Arianespace 
bases this prediction upon a matching of satellite transponder 
demand and supply,  particularly as new data compression techniques 
appear to could double or triple transponder capacity using existing 
or near-term transponders. 
   One of the significant possible changes in the market was 
identified as the arrival of new launch vehicles, including Russian 
launch systems.  But Arianespace predicts that in the long term, 
investors purchasing launch services are looking for the best trade 
off between launch service quality and price, and that Russian and 
other new launch services will have to prove out their capabilities 
and service quality, and their market penetration will be minimal. 
   [Commentary:  Ariane releases their market surveys annually, and 
I reported on their prior market survey in a past issue of CSN/STI.  
Comparing the two surveys, there aren't outstanding differences in 
the numbers.   The most notable change is the consideration of new 
data compression techniques, reducing the demand for new physical 
transponders on orbit.
   I note that in contrast to some predictions, demand for space-
based communications transponders appears to be remain strong. While 
fiber optic lines are making substantial inroads into the 
established point-to-point telecommunications markets, growing 
demand for telecommunications services world wide and for point-to-
multipoint broadcast services have prevented a decrease in space 
transponder demand.  Fiberoptic cables provide a higher capability 
service, but only from established point A to established point B. 
To establish a fiberoptic link it is necessary to install cable 
between the points, and while there are improved network solutions, 
installing a large network of distributed fiberoptic links can cost 
millions or billions of dollars.  
   For broadcast services where there is not an existing ground 
network structure, satellites still offer the most cost effective 
solution.  And if new services are required into a new region, it is 
cheaper to install a small satellite link costing only a few tens of 
thousands of dollars and tie into the existing global satellite 
network.  This allows rapid growth of new satellite services, and 
has kept demand high.  The replacement market for fiberoptics is 
growing as well, since as demand grows between the points serviced, 
it becomes cost effective to later install a fiberoptic link to 
handle the increase in traffic. 
   Since the telecommunications and data transfer markets are still 
growing rapidly, satellite market projections remain rosy.  But 
satellites are also getting longer orbital lifetimes.  Current 
generation satellites are now getting guarantees of at 15 years of 
on-orbit service or more, in contrast to 10 years of service from 
last generation's satellites.  This has cut back some of the launch 
demand, as satellite owners are rescheduling replacement satellite 
launches over longer intervals. 
   And as last note; Arianespace didn't flag it this year, but it 
looks like the space transportation market will be rather over-
supplied by existing launch systems in the near term.  The annual 
commercial launch demand is for about 15-20 medium sized satellites 
per year.  From the supply side, Ariane is capable of launching up 
to about a dozen medium sized satellites a year, Delta is capable of 
about 9-12 per year, Atlas is capable of 6-12, Long March 4-8, 
Japan's H-Vehicle 2-4, Russia's Proton capable of 8, and other 
systems such as Zenit and Soyuz another 10-20 medium launches per 
year.  That's a lot of capability for a small market. 
   We can only expect the competition to intensify for commercial 
launches.]

6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT 
   The 9 Feb Pegasus launch by Orbital Sciences Corporation has 
spawned an investigation over an apparent violation of range safety 
rules.  A valid abort order from a NASA range safety officer to halt 
the mission was overridden and the Pegasus was launched in violation 
of range safety rules.  
   In the last few minutes of the Pegasus launch countdown, one of 
two abort command receivers aboard the Pegasus failed.  Such a failure 
typically scrubs a launch,and a NASA range safety officer at 
Wallops Island, VA issued a mission abort order about a minute 
before the scheduled Pegasus launch.  Somehow this command was 
overridden by the OSC launch team or the message was lost in the 
communications channels, and the Pegasus was launched despite the 
valid abort call. 
   Fortunately, the Pegasus functioned as expected, and the abort 
command receiver was not needed.  But this incident did spark an 
investigation since a valid abort order was given under agreed-to 
launch constraint rules, and was not obeyed. 
   Leading the investigation is the National Transportation Safety 
Board (NTSB) with support from NASA, OSC, and the Air Force.  This 
investigation marks the first time NTSB has taken the lead on an 
incident involving a space launch.  According to the NTSB, their 
investigation will take about 6 months, and is primarily looking at 
lines of authority, communications links and safety procedures used 
in the launch. 
  [Commentary: This is the first time that the NTSB has led an 
investigation into a space launch.  Their leadership was requested 
by the Department of Commerce's Office of Commercial Space 
Transportation, who had licensed the commercial launch.  
   At the time of writing this column, some of the initial 
investigations have been concluded, and some of the results are 
starting to leak out into the trade press.  Apparently, 3 or four 
different communications channels were in use during the test. After 
the abort destruct receiver stopped responding, the NASA test 
director and range controller in the Mission Control room at Wallops 
Island gave abort orders about a minute before the launch.  
According to the mission rules, this should have stopped the launch. 
Somehow, the OSC test conductor ordered the abort reversed, and the 
NASA communicator on the net relayed that order to the B-52 carrying 
the Pegasus at about 22 seconds before launch.  Differing 
explainations of exactly how this happened are proposed -- with the 
best set being that clear lines of communications and clear 
definition of the responsibilities of the mission control team, and 
understanding of the mission rules were not established before the 
launch.  
   As we see more and more commercial launches, more of these 
procedural issues are going to crop up and will have to be resolved.   
This case is interesting because it is the first time the NTSB has 
been called in to investigate a commercial launch problem (as they 
do with commercial aircraft problems).  
   I think this problem will turn out to be primarily problems with 
procedures and communications, and will be cleared up with issuance 
of guidelines on how launch communications should be set up and how 
specific lines of authority should be delineated.] 

7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED
   Tsniimach Enterprise in Russia announced it is marketing a new 
small space launch system, based upon converted ICBM components.  
Two versions of the launcher are being marketed: the "Aerokosmos" 
winged vehicle launched like the OSC Pegasus, and the "Severkosmos", 
launched from a mobile ground transporter.  The Aerokosmos is 
projected to deliver 900 kg to a 200 km circular orbit or 580 kg to 
an 800 km circular orbit, and the Severkosmos to be capable of 430 
kg to 200 km orbits and 225 kg to 800 km.  Also proposed to be used 
with these launch systems is a LEO data relay system called 
'Sineva'.  Tsniimach Enterprise is described as a ex-military 
establishment, focusing on aerodynamics and thermal protection of 
spacecraft and which has participated in the development of the 
Buran shuttle system,  They are located near the NPO Energia 
facility in Kaliningrad, outside of Moscow. 
   [Commentary: There's very little released information on this new 
venture.  My suspicion is it is another Russian enterprise looking 
for hard currency and trying to capitalize upon their in-house 
knowledge of ex-Soviet launch systems.  It adds to the list of numerous 
commercial space startups announced from the ex-Soviet Union. 
   This one's a little different in that they are offering variants 
of ex-Soviet ICBMs, but I can't identify any key customers being 
targeted or substantial financial backing.]

8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING
   In late January, Georgia Tech Research Institute released the 
results of a preliminary study on the feasibility of a commercial 
rocket launching site in Camden County, Georgia at the old Kingsland 
Missile Test Launching Site on the Atlantic coast.  The preliminary 
study recommended the site not be pursued as a commercial launch 
site, stating reopening the site was not feasible due to projected 
low investment returns, plus environmental and other geographic 
considerations.  However, the report did say the site might be ideal 
for other aerospace uses, and recommended other potential uses. 
   [Commentary:  This should put the nails in the coffin of the 
Kingsland Commercial Launch Site.  While other sites are still 
proceeding with commercial launch site development plans, Kingsland 
found without a key customer to act as anchor tenant, and if 
substantial infrastructure had to be put in, then the expected 
returns were too low to justify the cost of development.  
   This might point out some key discriminators in judging the 
feasibility of a commercial launch site.  These include:
  - Is there an identified key customer to provide core usage 
sufficient to recover setup costs?
  - Is there a market advantage of using the site?
  - Can existing infrastructure be used or modified at the site?
  - Can financing be found at low enough cost to support the 
investment?  
   Other commercial launch site ventures -- including those at 
Woomera, Poker Flat, Cape York, White Sands, Alabama Off-Shore 
Platform, Hawaii, and Vandenberg have to also be judged against 
these criteria.  In my opinion, some of these ventures are flying 
on hope and speculation, and not on sound financial grounds.]

9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING
   In one of his last official acts, former President Bush 
authorized space technology transfer for several joint space 
ventures between US and other firms.  One of these was a proposed 
use of US technology by Spain to build a small booster.  With that 
regulatory impediment removed, the 3-stage Capricornia launch 
vehicle will start development later this year, planning for a first 
launch in the 1995/96 time period.  The Capricornia is described as 
a small 3-stage all solid booster designed to put 250-500 Kg into 
LEO.  Several launch sites are being examined for the system, 
including 2 on the Iberian peninsula and 1 on the Canary Islands.  
Originated by INTA in Spain, the project reports it has $ 30 M in 
development funding, and will use technology from Argentina's Condor 
launch vehicle as well as from the US. 
   [Commentary:  Several firms have identified a market opportunity 
in providing a small launcher for the European market.  Small 
payloads from European firms or organizations currently use either 
Ariane piggyback launches or the US/Italian Scout launcher.  
However, Ariane piggyback opportunities are limited, and the Scout 
program is being phased out (accompanied by some disarray in the 
Italian government and space industry regarding any follow-on 
system).  
   This has left an apparent niche for a new European small launch 
system.  Surprisingly enough, ESA has not supported development of 
such a system within the current space funding structure.  Studies 
have been performed by British Aerospace, Aerospatiale, Deutsche 
Aerospace, and Italian organizations, but with the exception of the 
Swedish/PacAstro system (reported below), I have not been able to 
find any other European development work with even a rumor of 
funding for hardware. 
   Also of interest is the linking of the Capricornia to the 
Argentinian Condor launcher.  There have been some interesting 
rumors surfacing out of Argentina over the past year about a space 
launcher/IRBM program funded under the military junta which ruled 
the country in the 1970's and early 1980's. 
   What is known is in Feb 1992, the Argentinian Air Force formally 
transferred control of the Condor 2 missile program to the new 
civilian Argentinian national space agency (Comison Nacional de 
Atividades Espaciales - CNAE).  The Condor 2 program was described 
as originating in 1983, expanding upon the smaller Condor 1 rocket 
program in collaboration with Egypt and with support of German 
firms.  The Condor 2 was also reportedly funded indirectly by Iraq 
in the mid-1980's.  Fairly large solid rocket motors were built and 
tested, but Argentinan development of a suitable guidance package 
lagged that of the propulsion system. 
   It should be noted CNAE is planning to launch its first 
scientific satellite in late 1994.  The US$ 9 M, 181 Kg, SAC-B 
satellite will study the Earth's upper atmosphere and includes 
cooperative experiments from Italy and the US. No launch vehicle has 
yet been selected, but OSC's Pegasus and the Russian Burlak Air 
launched rocket are reported to be strong contenders for this 
contract.] 

10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP
   PacAstro, a small launch firm in Herndon, Virginia announced in 
late February it had received a $6 M launch reservation contract 
from the Swedish Space Corp to launch a satellite on PacAstro's PA-2 
launch vehicle.   This will be performed as part of the Polar 
Satellite Service (PSS), a joint Norwegian Space Center/ Swedish 
Space Corp. program to upgrade the Andoya Rocket Range in Norway and 
offering small satellite launches into the polar regions.  According 
to PacAstro, PSS is also performing an $8 M upgrade of the Andoya 
launch facilities, including a new integration facility and a fully-
enclosed vertical assembly building for small launch vehicles like 
the PacAstro PA-2.  PacAstro has been chosen as "the main 
alternative rocket supplier" for the small satellite launch service 
to be offered by PSS from Andoya.  The date of the launch of the 
Swedish satellite was not specified. 
   [Commentary:  PacAstro has been trying to line up customers and 
funding for their launch vehicle for some time now.  The PA-2 is a 
small, two stage rocket fueled by RP-1 and Liquid Oxygen.  From 
PacAstro's literature, the engines designed for the PA-series 
rockets are built of "off the shelf" components based upon the Lunar 
MOdule Descent Engines built by TRW, and are capable of putting a 
225 Kg satellite into a 750 km circular polar orbit.  
   PacAstro is trying to arrange construction financing for its 
first three PA-2 vehicles, with a first launch planned for 1995, and 
2 orbital launches planned for 1996.  My records show PacAstro hired 
TRW to provide marketing support and systems design,  with primary 
engineering to be done by AeroAstro, a small satellite builder 
closely associated with PacAstro (headquartered in the same 
building).  The Swedish Space Corporation would supply engineering, 
launch operations, vehicle subsystems, and marketing support. 
Sumitomo Corp. of Tokyo, is a first round investor and sits on the 
board of directors.  
   PacAstro has gotten a first round financial package of at least 
$550 K  (Some sources place this of high as $1 M), but has been 
searching for about a year for the additional $20-30 M needed to 
design, build and launch their first set of vehicles. 
   The launch reservation from SSC can possibly be used to help 
bring some investors on board, but by my estimate, they will need 
much more than the single $6 M sale to put their venture into real 
hardware.] 

11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED
    In early March, it was reported a joint satellite communications 
venture between a Taiwanese and mainland Chinese was in the works.  
As reported in the Taipei press, China Development Corp. (CDC), 
headquartered in Taiwam and with links to the ruling Nationalist 
Party, is planning to set up a joint venture in Hong Kong with China 
Great Wall Industry Corp. with the objective of launching a regional 
communications satellite. CDC would cover about 10% of the satellite 
system cost (US $10 M) in exchange for rights to 10% of the 
satellite's communications channels.  
   [Commentary:  This announcement came close on the heels of the 
release of Taiwanese plans for space development (released in mid 
January).   In those plans, the National Space Program Office of 
Taiwan will launch 3 satellites, starting with ROCSAT-1, a 400 Kg 
scientific spacecraft, planned for launch in 1997.  Two additional 
satellites are planned, both communications satellites.   TRW has 
been helping Taiwan plan this program, budgeted at T$13.6 B (US $530 
M) through 2006.  
   I haven't been able to establish any relationship between this 
venture and those of the NSPOT, but there might be a connection.  
While Taiwan has the financing to pursue several ventures, the 
current Taiwanese telecommunications market might not support two 
separate sastellite ventures. 
   The reported name for the Tiawanese/Chinese system is "Asiasat-
2", but I don't thinks this has any relationship with the existing 
Hong Kong-based "Asiasat" program involving Chinese, Hong Kong, and 
other Asian investors, other than using it as an organizational 
model.  There are some obvious advantages to pursuing such a joing 
venture -- it could provide excellent first-hand experience to 
Taiwan for a very low cost, which then can be used in later 
satellite ventures.  But there are internal political issues between 
Taiwanese and Chinese ventures, but putting any joint venture 
through a  Hong Kong intermediary corporation might allow it to 
proceed. 
   In any case, the East Asian satellite market is lighting up with 
substantially growth projected in space services and revenues.  This 
is just another indicator to add to the list.] 

12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES
   South Korea's Trade, Industry and Resources Ministry recently 
announced plans to invest US$22 B in research and development and 
another US$17 B into manufacturing and research facilities for 
advanced aerospace technologies.  Space technologies have been 
specifically targeted as part of this program, beginning with 
manufacture and launch of an advanced multi-purpose satellite by 
1997.  The objective of this investment is to raise South Korea's 
aerospace technology to the level of the world's top 10 countries by 
2000.                                 
   [Commentary: South Korea has been quietly working to develop its 
national aerospace industry, specifically including space 
activities. I'm noting this as a flag that potential new players are 
coming into the commercial space market. 
   As part of their national effort, 2 national telecommunications 
satellites for Korea Telecom will be launched in April and Oct 1995 
on Delta. Designated Koreasat 1 and 2, the platforms will provide 
television and telephone service throughout the Korean Peninsula, 
southwestern Japan and portions of China bordering North Korea. 
   South Korea launched its first small satellite piggyback on 
Ariane in Aug 1992, called Uribyol-1 (Our Star) and costing about US 
$8.8 M.  Uribyol-2 is planned for piggyback launch in October of 
this year, again on Ariane, and will be entirely "made in Korea."  
Uribyol-3, projected for a 1995 launch, will be an environment-
monitoring micro-satellite. 
   This satellite may be the precursor to a series of small Earth 
observation satellites,  The KEOS (Korean Earth Observation System) 
project, which has been submitted for approval to the South Korean 
government, would use two or three 300-kg spacecraft equipped with 
optical and microwave sensors.
   South Korean press reports claim there is also a parallel 
military effort to establish the capabilities for building and 
launching small military satellites by 2001.  Supposedly a 
government panel had been established to oversee such an effort, 
funded at US $ 500 M between 1993 and 2001, in anticipation of an  
expected pullout of U.S. intelligence-gathering systems from the 
Korean peninsula.       
   In conjunction with all of these reported efforts, South Korean 
is also pursuing production work either as off-sets to existing 
aerospace technology contracts (for example, McDonnell Douglas is 
offsetting production of some Delta parts to South Korean firms as 
part of the Koreasat launch contracts), or for production of 
consumer space items (among other products, South Korea exports 
satellite receiver television setups to Japan, and Samsung has 
announced teaming for production of OSC's Orbcomm user terminals.).  
   This looks like a very aggressive push into space technologies.  
Considering that East Asia is currently the fastest growing sector 
for commercial space services (primarily for telecommunications), a 
South Korean push into space technologies may change the composition 
of commercial space market there over the next decade.] 

13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH
   As announced in the last CSN/STI, each issue will give the 
results of stock indexes and portfolios regarding space stocks and 
investments.  The table below summarizes results to the end of 
March.  The Space Technology Index did quite a bit better than the 
market as a whole, as represented by the S&P 500 index.  Since 90+% 
of the values included in the index are US firms, this represents a 
general increase in the market value of space-related firms.  The 
increase in the first quarter is more than in all of 1992 -- which 
is a very promising sign, although future months may reverse this 
trend. The Commercial Space Technology Index has also done quite 
well, but the Pure Play portfolio -- consisting of stocks of firms 
which are pure plays in space technologies -- has also surpassed its 
results in all of 1993.  We'll keep an eye on these ....

   INDEX RESULTS THROUGH MARCH
                           Beginning  Beginning      1 Jan 93 to
                           1992       1993           31 Mar 1993
                           -------    --------       --------
   S&P 500                 416        436  (+4.7%)   452  (+3.7%)
   Space Tech Index        267        304 (+13.6%)   373 (+22.7%)
   Comm'l Space Tech Index 167        194 (+16.3%)   222 (+14.2%)
   Space Tech Pure Plays   147        169 (+15.4%)   197 (+16.2%)


FINAL NOTES - 
    What?  This column's already full?  And I still have bunches of 
commercial space developments to report on.  As I said at the start 
of this, column there's been a lot of interesting happenings - but 
I'll have to put them into the next issue.  
   Looking ahead, I've got several articles in the works on new 
happenings with Iridium and the LEO communications satellite market, 
more news on international launchers appearing (and disappearing) on 
the market, new international commercial space ventures,  and other 
interesting developments. 
   And as always, I hope you folks find this stuff useful and 
interesting -- Any and all comments are welcome. 
