quoted for future reference...


He believed one of two things: 1) Sabo was more likely than Samuel
to get a hit OR 2) that more good would be done in the long run
by leaving Sabo in regardless of the expectation of the actual outcome.

In fact you don't know what Perez had in mind when he left Sabo in.


In fact, I don't think anyone is claiming that they can predict
the future, or any particular future event.  But we can believe
that certain trends are due to a cause (whether or not we have
identified the cause) and therefore will continue.


I think seeing insults in other people's opinions is kind of silly.
After all, Mark didn't call you a total idiot, or call your work
stupid, he simply stated that it didn't change his opinion on the 
subject.


If player A hits better on Tuesdays and always has, and Mark believes
that it might be an indication that he will hit on Tuesday better next
season as well, would you respond the same way?  At some point you
might admit that all variable might not be known to you (who knows
what this guy does every Monday night?  Maybe he sees his sports
shrink on Tuesday mornings, or has his Vitamin B shots Monday nights?)

But this is something that's true of one guy only.  It doesn't
mean that there will be a meaningful correlation for the entire
league by days of the week, nor that there should be.  But it doesn't
mean we can't make predictions based on that for that particular
player.


I only see a prediction for one player here.  I don't see anything
about ALL batters.


That's exactly what Mark is trying to do though.  Find hitters
that have these correlation and ask whether we can make predictions
for these hitters based on their past performance.


Huh?  What does gambler's fallacy have to do with anything?
Whether you can know the reason for correlation or not, you can't
deny that it has existent, you can only make an argument that
you don't think it is likely to continue to exist because you
can't see a reason for it to exist.


Someone posted recently on why negative clutch would correlate.
The argument along the lines of star player with L/R splits will
always see an adverse condition in late innings of a close game
(i.e. opposing manager will always bring in a AH pitcher to
face him, where his manager will not pull him for a PH)


What about you?  If the shoe fits, will you wear it with an open mind?