

Cool.  And thank you for an intelligent response devoid of the silly
name-calling of others.  :)


 One of the basic things you need to 

OK.


Actually, I think the large-scale sample size is part of the problem.
It seems to me that if we were to plot all the players in baseball
in regard to BA vs. Clutch BA deviation we would get some kind of
bell curve.  (The X-axis being the +/- deviation in clutch hitting
vs. non-clutch;  the Y-axis being the number of players.)  Certainly
there would be *some* players on the extreme ends of the bell.  My
*supposition* is that if we were to find the SAME players consistently
(year after year) at one end of the bell or the other, then we might
be able to make some reasonable conclusions about *those* players
(as opposed to all baseball players).

  As a counterexample to 

You won't hear those kind of accusations from me.  It is interesting
that you selected Maldonado, because he is someone whom I have also 
looked at.  He has been a very inconsistent hitter (in terms of BA),
hitting in 1989 - 92  .217, .273, .250, .272    Admittedly, he has
been traded between leagues as well as clubs.  His clutch hitting 
record is equally inconsistent.  So, for my purposes in 1993 I would
not draw any conclusions about his ability to hit in the clutch based
on his prior performance.  I don't know how I would have felt in 1988,
but you may indeed be right.  

When I looked at Sabo I found a more consistent record of hitting, and
a more consistent pattern of his clutch hitting being proportionately
below his non-clutch BA.  Ditto for Joe Carter.

This probably brings us to the heart of the disagreement I am having
with others on this topic.  Must any conclusion based on statistical
history be able to be applied broadly throughout a data base before
it has any validity?  Is it impossible (or irrational) to apply
statistical analysis to selected components of the data base?



I completely accept that reasoning.  Again, what if we were to find
the same individuals at each end of the spectrum on a consistent
basis? 

amen.



--	The Beastmaster

