rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Streams in North America are expected to continue to warm, with important ramifications for aquatic ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming and drying coupled with other stressors (e.g., pollutants, nutrients and invasive species) pose a risk to ecosystem structure and function in lakes, streams and reservoirs across many parts of North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR7: Risk to human health and well-being, including mental health Heat-related human mortality is projected to increase in North America as a result of climate change and ageing populations, poverty, chronic diseases and inadequate public health systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Gradual changes to temperature and precipitation are impacting urban ecosystems and creating ecosystem regime changes resulting in the poleward expansion among insects that bring risks related to vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus and Lyme disease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is expected to lead to wide-ranging mental health challenges related to an increase in the psychological burdens of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR8: Risk to food and nutritional security through changes in agriculture, livestock, hunting, fisheries and aquaculture productivity and access Cascading and interacting impacts of climate change threatens food systems as well as food and nutritional security for many North Americans, especially those already experiencing food and nutritional scarcity, women and children with high nutritional needs and Indigenous Peoples reliant on subsistence resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In agricultural regions experiencing aridification and where water scarcity precludes substantial expansion of irrigation, warming and extreme heat pose a risk to food and forage crop and livestock production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean warming and MHWs will continue to disrupt commercial capture fisheries through species redistribution and changes to yield (high confidence), and warming waters and OA will increasingly impact aquaculture production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR9: Risks to major infrastructure supporting commerce and trade with implications for sustainable economic development, regional connections and livelihoods Climate change and extreme events are expected to increase risks to the North American economy via infrastructure damage and deterioration (high confidence), disruption to operations, unsafe conditions for workers (medium confidence) and interruptions to international and inter-regional supply chains (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These climatic impacts will have cascading implications for local livelihoods, sustainable economic development pathways and regional connectivity, and will reinforce pre-existing social inequities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Infrastructure damage will also disrupt economic activities, including manufacturing, tourism, fisheries, natural resource extraction and energy production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR10: Risk to the quality of life in North American communities, cities and towns In major North American cities and settlements, vulnerability to climate change has increased and is projected to continue to rise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Coastal, riverine and urban flooding displacing communities and coastal ecosystems (Section 14.5.5.2) will become a dominant risk to urban centres (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under low- mitigation scenarios, compounding risks and higher-carbon-emission scenarios increase the potential that amplifying feedback loops and fatal synergies across sectors could lead to existential threats to the social–ecological systems of North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Multiple lines of evidence across sectors assessed in this chapter suggest that after mid-century and without carbon mitigation, climate-driven changes to ecological and social boundary conditions may rapidly push many systems into disequilibrium (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Support for, and implementation of, adaptation policies, plans and measures have not been equal across the public and private sectors, regions or varying levels of governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To date, reactive (coping-based) and incremental adaptations have helped North Americans avoid greater damages from observed climate impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There is increasing agreement that worsening impacts and expanding risk conditions may exceed current adaptation capacities by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These efforts largely have focused on planning and less on implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some subnational governments, namely states and provinces, have engaged in advanced adaptation planning efforts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The absence of evidence about the current effectiveness of proposed adaptation actions to guide future actions and investments presents a serious risk to North America, especially at higher GWLs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At current warming levels, social–ecological systems have been reaching limits to adaptation in regions with high exposure and high sensitivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation actions in one place or sector can have adverse side effects elsewhere (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Incorporating different values and knowledge systems, consideration of equity and justice as core objectives and addressing underlying vulnerabilities are principles that can guide transformational adaptation and resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Successful nature-based adaptation draws from existing adaptation approaches (Borsje et al., 2011; Temmerman et al., 2013; Law et al., 2018; Reguero et al., 2018; Buotte et al., 2019) and is applied across ecological and human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nature-based adaptation is generally less expensive and strengthens over time, as compared with built infrastructure which erodes with time (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Effective nature-based adaptation requires a well-coordinated suite of adaptation efforts (e.g., assessment, planning, funding, implementation and evaluation) that is co- produced among stakeholders and across sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The observed impacts of climate change differ between urban and rural contexts, island types and tropical and non-tropical islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is also affecting settlements and infrastructure, health and well-being, water and food security, and economies and culture, especially through compound events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
TCs are severely impacting small islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Scientific evidence has confirmed that globally and in small islands tropical corals are presently at high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Severe coral bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance, has been observed in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific and Indian oceans (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Due to the large range of insular- related vulnerabilities, almost 50% of terrestrial species presently considered at risk of global extinction also occur on islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected Impacts Projected climate and ocean-related changes will significantly affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, which will in turn have cascading impacts across both natural and human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changes in wave climate superimposed on SLR will significantly increase coastal flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The frequency, extent, duration and consequences of coastal flooding will significantly increase from 2050 (high confidence), unless coastal and marine ecosystems are able to naturally adapt to SLR through vertical growth (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Projected changes in the wave climate superimposed on SLR will rapidly increase flooding in small islands, despite highly contrasting exposure profiles between ocean sub-regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Modelling of both temperature and ocean acidification effects under future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) suggest that some small islands will experience severe coral bleaching on an annual basis before 2040 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Intact coral reefs, seagrass meadows and mangroves provide a variety of ecosystem services that are important to island communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These include provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and those that support community resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
If coastal ecosystems are degraded and lost, then the benefits they provide cannot be easily replaced (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected changes in aridity are expected to impose freshwater stress on many small islands, especially SIDS (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
SIDS with high projected population growth rates are expected to experience the most severe freshwater stress by 2030 under a 2°C warming threshold scenario {15.3.3.2} The continued degradation and transformation of terrestrial and marine ecosystems of small islands due to human- dominated will amplify the vulnerability of island peoples to the impacts of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reef island and coastal area habitability in small islands is expected to decrease because of increased temperature, extreme sea levels and degradation of buffering ecosystems, which will increase human exposure to sea-related hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
On small islands, coastal land loss attributable to higher sea level, increased extreme precipitation and wave impacts and increased aridity have contributed to food and water insecurities that are likely to become more acute in many places (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future Risks The reduced habitability of small islands is an overarching significant risk caused by a combination of several key risks facing most small islands even under a global temperature scenario of 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Moreover, it can distil the benefits and/or disadvantages and long-term implications of choosing such options (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The vulnerability of communities in small islands, especially those relying on coral reef systems for livelihoods, may exceed adaptation limits well before 2100 even for a low greenhouse gas emission pathway (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The impacts of climate change on vulnerable low-lying and coastal areas present serious threats to the ability of land to support human life and livelihood (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Options, Limits and Opportunities of Adaptation Some island communities are resilient with strong social safety nets and social capital that support responses and actions already occurring, but there is limited information on the effectiveness of the adaptation practices and the scale of action needed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In small islands, despite the existence of adaptation barriers several enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes and to build resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These enablers include better governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and gender considerations; building human resource capacity; increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness programmes; increased access to climate information; adequately downscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) as well as integrating cultural resources into decision-making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Small islands present the most urgent need for investment in capacity building and adaptation strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Additionally, institutional and legal systems are often inadequately prepared for managing adaptation strategies such as large-scale settlement relocation and other planned and/or autonomous responses to climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation strategies are already being implemented on some small islands although barriers are encountered including inadequate up-to-date and locally relevant information, limited availability of finance and technology, lack of integration of IKLK in adaptation strategies, and institutional constraints (high confidence) {15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5}.For many small islands, adaptation actions are often incremental and do not match the scale of extreme or compounding events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To address these shortcomings, enablers are being integrated into National Adaptation Plans and Disaster Risk Reduction Plans (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although international climate finance has increased in magnitude, small islands face challenges in accessing adaptation finance to cope with slow- and rapid-onset events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Also, scientific evidence since AR5 has confirmed that tropical corals are presently at high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Even achieving emission reduction targets consistent with the ambitious goal of 1.5°C of global warming under the Paris Agreement will result in the further loss of 70–90% of reef-building corals compared to today, with 99% of corals being lost under warming of 2°C or more above the pre-industrial period (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Stronger evidence confirms that education and awareness-raising enhance household and community adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Knowledge has improved on limits to adaptation, including projected timeframes of limits for hard protection (high confidence) and EbA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There is also a better understanding that barriers and governance challenges vary by island and island groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In small islands the methods and mechanisms to assess climate-induced losses and damages remain undeveloped (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This is true on all types of islands (Figure 15.2).15.3.1 Synthesis of Observed and Projected Changes in the Physical Basis There is increased evidence of warming in the small islands, particularly in the latter half of the 20th century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reconstructions of past storm surges and modelling studies assessing storm surge risk similarly highlighted high variations of risk along island coasts, due to variations in exposure, topography and bathymetry (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Larger-scale studies confirmed that projected changes in the wave climate superimposed on SLR will rapidly increase flooding in small islands, despite highly contrasting exposure profiles between ocean sub-regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since the 1950s–1970s, and even in regions exhibiting higher than global-averaged SLR rates, atoll islands maintained their land area (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The rates of change did not correlate with SLR rates, suggesting that the impact of SLR on island land area was obscured by other climate drivers and human disturbances on some islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite important knowledge gaps on coastal erosion in high tropical islands, recent studies confirmed increasing shoreline retreat and beach loss over the past decades, mainly due to TC and ETC waves and human disturbances (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite storm-induced erosion prevailing along some shoreline sections, recent studies reaffirmed the contribution of TC and ETC waves to coastal and reef island vertical building through massive reef- to-island sediment transfer (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Similarly, El Niño and La Niña were involved in rapid and highly contrasting shoreline changes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Small reef islands and narrow coastal systems affected by human disturbances will increasingly be at risk of disappearance due to SLR (KR2 in Figure 15.5), enhanced sediment loss caused by extreme events (Duvat et al., 2019a) and/or human activities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Severe coral bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance have been documented in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean (e.g., Guam, Fiji, Palau, Vanuatu, Chagos, Comoros, Mauritius, Seychelles, and the Maldives (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Median return time between two severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years (e.g., Hughes et al., 2017b; Hughes et al., 2018) and is often associated with warm phase of ENSO events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Modelling of both bleaching and ocean acidification effects under future climate scenarios suggested that some Pacific small islands (e.g., Nauru, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands) will experience conditions that cause severe bleaching on an annual basis before 2040 and that 90% of the world reefs are projected to experience conditions that result in severe bleaching annually by 2055 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Despite their vital social and ecological value, substantial declines in seagrass communities have been documented in many small islands (Section 3.4.2.5; Arias-Ortiz et al., 2018; Kendrick et al., 2019; Brodie et al., 2020), including Fiji (Joseph et al., 2019), Reunion Island (Cuvillier et al., 2017), Bermuda, Cayman Islands, US Virgin Islands (Waycott et al., 2009), Kiribati (Brodie et al., 2020), Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau (Short et al., 2016), but attribution of such declines to climatic influences remains weak (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
In the Mediterranean, seagrass meadows are already showing signs of regression, which may have been aggravated by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Whether or not such events are related to long-term climate change remains unclear; however, it has been suggested that the influx may be related to strong Amazon discharge, enhanced West African upwelling, together with rising seawater temperatures in the Atlantic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
In small islands where the risk of loss to ecosystem services is high (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17), many of these ecosystem services cannot be easily replaced (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As corals, mangroves and seagrasses disappear, so do fish and other dependent organisms that directly benefit industries such as ecotourism and fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
On high volcanic and granitic islands, freshwater ecosystems are often closely connected with coastal spaces, and changes in freshwater supply from river systems have direct implications for salinity and sediment loads (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate impacts on streamflow patterns in tropical islands also create shifts in water supply for downstream users and habitat conditions for organisms supporting a wide range of ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the Mediterranean region, freshwater resources will decline by 10–30% (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Such changes in SLR could increase salinity in estuarine and aquifer water, affecting ground and surface water resources for drinking and irrigation water (Mycoo, 2018a) across the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This is likely to hinder the adaptation response of terrestrial biota–increasing the risk of biodiversity loss and, in turn, impairing the resilience capacity of ecosystem functioning and services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This is due to projected strong shifts, reductions or even complete losses of climatic niches resulting from inadequate geographic space for species to track suitable climate envelopes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indirect impacts of SLR may potentially result in equal or more biodiversity loss than direct impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Tropical island natural habitats/systems are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as TCs, due to their small size, unique ecological systems and often low socioeconomic capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There are too few studies available to suggest potential future response trends of these ecosystems to this increased intensity; however, it seems plausible that present resilience capacities may be adversely impacted (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These may ultimately increase the risk of multiple extinctions, negatively impacting upon global biodiversity levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These are likely to enhance IAS impacts on islands including: restructuring of ecological communities leading to declines and extinctions/extirpations in flora and fauna, habitat degradation, declining ecosystem functioning, services and resilience and, in extreme cases, potential community homogenisation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Compared to continents, terrestrial IAS are disproportionately prevalent on islands (almost three quarters of global species currently threatened by IAS and disease are found on islands) and also generate stronger impacts (e.g., within alpine ecosystems of high islands) than on continents (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The main settlements of small islands are located along the coast and with decades of high-density coastal urban development, their population, buildings and infrastructure are currently exposed to multiple climate change-related hazards (Kumar and Taylor, 2015; Mycoo, 2017) and face key risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These authors concluded that nine of 17 Pacific Island entities (Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu) could experience ≥50% declines in maximum catch potential by 2100 relative to 1980–2000 under both an RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The small islands that show the largest anticipated decrease in the maximum catch potential of fisheries by the end of the century (according to an RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario) include the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tokelau, Tuvalu, São Tomé and Príncipe, whereas some other small islands such as Bermuda, Easter Island (Chile), and Pitcairn Islands (UK), might actually witness increases in fish catch potential (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These KRs include loss of marine and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services (high confidence) (KR1; for details on KR coverage, see Section 15.3.3.1); submergence of reef islands (low confidence) (KR2; Section 15.3.3.1.1); loss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services (high confidence) (KR3; Section 15.3.3.3); water insecurity (medium- high confidence) (KR4; Section 15.3.4.3); destruction of settlements and infrastructure (high confidence) (KR5; Section 15.3.4.1); degradation of human health and well-being (low confidence) (KR6; Section 15.3.4.2); economic decline and livelihood failure (high confidence) (KR7; Sections 15.3.4.4 and 15.3.4.5); and loss of cultural resources and heritage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Risk accumulation and amplification through cascading effects from ecosystems and ecosystem services to human systems will likely cause reduced habitability of some small islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The geographic ranges of the animal and plant species assessed have shifted from low to high latitudes in response to climate warming on land and in the ocean (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
On land, climate change-induced shifts towards higher elevations are also common in biodiversity hotspots (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the ocean, abrupt mortality of habitat- forming species on coral reefs and kelp forests, especially following heatwaves, are increasing in frequency in biodiversity hotspots (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
All of these reduce climate resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In spite of the lower climate velocities inside terrestrial hotspots, these areas are not projected to serve as effective climate refugia from the effects of global warming, especially for endemic species (unique to a hotspot) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)