rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Climate change can affect the growth and geographical expansion of these fungi (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The occurrence of toxin-producing fungi will increase and expand from tropical and subtropical areas into new regions and where appropriate capacity for surveillance and risk management is lacking (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The increase in toxigenic fungi in crops, and consequent contamination of staple foods with mycotoxins, will increase the risks of human and animal exposure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In aquatic systems, toxins produced during HABs also cause food safety problems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vibrio-related mortalities from finfish consumption are expected to rise with climate change (water temperature, salinity, oxygen and pH) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For shellfish species, oxygen deficits (Mohamad et al., 2019b), sea level rise (Deeb et al., 2018) and temperature (Green et al., 2019) will be most important for food safety.Food safety is also anticipated to worsen from increased contaminant bioaccumulation under climate-induced warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Occurrence of bacterial pathogens such as Salmonella and Campylobacter will increase with rising temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increases in rainfall intensity will have some effect on the transport of heavy metals by enhancing runoff from soil and increasing the leaching of heavy metals into water systems, with magnitudes dependent on local conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change can alter insect damage in at least two ways: increases in reproductive rate from temperature increases and changes in pheromone effectiveness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change impacts will increase most global prices relative to early 21st century levels, with varying effects on the cost of food imports (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is already contributing to reduced food security and nutrition and will continue to do so (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will make efforts to reduce this threat more difficult to achieve (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Several CIDs increase the number of people experiencing food insecurity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Labour capacity, supply and productivity loss in moderate outdoor work due to heat stress is estimated between 2% and 14%, depending on the location and indicator (Ioannou et al., 2017; Kjellstrom et al., 2018), with an overall estimate of 5.3% loss in productivity for outdoor work between 2000 and 2015 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Highly vulnerable occupation groups affected by heat stress include farmers, farmworkers and livestock keepers working outdoors in low-income tropical countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Low-income urban and rural households who are net food buyers are particularly affected by food price increases, with reduction in consumption of diverse food groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous Peoples are often more vulnerable to climate change, due to conditions of poverty, limited resources, discrimination and marginalisation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change have increased food safety risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Weather variability and extreme events (Seneviratne et al., 2021) have reduced availability and access to diverse foods to sell and to purchase in rural markets, thereby reducing access to affordable, diverse foods for both rural small-scale producers and net consumers, particularly for landlocked and low-income countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Without adaptive measures, heat stress impacts on agricultural labour will increase with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation options needed to protect agricultural worker productivity outdoors and reduce occupational heat illnesses and deaths include cooled working environments, improved surveillance systems and education on the need to monitor (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While climate change impacts, including drought impacts on food security, are important risk factors for conflict, other key drivers are often more influential, including low socioeconomic development, limited state capacity, weak governance, intergroup inequities and recent histories of conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Some underline their potential in building resilience to changing climatic conditions, in the form of enhanced drought/heat tolerance, pest/disease protection and/or reduced land usage, thus serving to bolster food security and nutrition (Sainger et al., 2015; Muzhinji and Box 5.10: Food Safety Interactions with Food Security and Malnutrition Climate change significantly increases the future food safety risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Children in low-income countries will be at greater risk of undernutrition from these multiple climate change impacts, including lower food availability, quality and safety and increased risk of diarrheal disease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A more iterative and flexible adaptation approach beyond just genomic improvement to tackle the multiplicity of factors limiting smallholder production is anticipated to increase the likelihood that these promising technologies can enhance food security and nutrition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
To make breeding technologies scale-neutral, the policy structure needs to support and protect smallholders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
UPA cannot fully feed urban dwellers within its boundaries but can make an important contribution to local food security and nutrition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Land deals raise important social justice questions (Franco et al., 2017; Hunsberger et al., 2017; Borras and Franco, 2018b; Borras et al., 2020; Sekine, 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Land use dimensions Impacts and implications References (2014 to present) ForestryDirect and indirect land use change provoked by LSLAs accelerates deforestation of tropical forests globally (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
LSLAs may adversely affect local populations’ access to energy resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Agricultural intensification could meet short-term food security and livelihood goals, but reduces biological and landscape diversity, and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Land deals frequently target common land and may increase the vulnerability of customary, traditional, and Indigenous systems common property, while reducing their adaptive capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
An increasing demand for aquaculture products intensifies competition for feed supplies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increases in demands for animal protein and shifts to pescatarian diets will increase the existing competition for land resources, particularly in low- and medium-income countries, with negative impacts on food security (Makkar, 2018), but may be mitigated by dietary changes, novel feeds and food waste usage for aquatic systems (Berners-Lee et al., 2018; Hua et al., 2019; Cottrell et al., 2020).Competition over use of major aquaculture feed crops (Fry et al., 2016) with terrestrial livestock (Troell et al., 2014), and fish use by terrestrial livestock, will also place pressure on fish and crop resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Waste fish products can supplement fish meal and oil to reduce competition for feed, as well as reducing use of fish that could go to human consumption (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Shallow and microtidal estuaries will be more vulnerable to changing river runoffs and saltwater intrusions, eutrophication and hypoxia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation options that consider adverse effects for different groups reduce the risk increasing vulnerability, negatively affecting socioeconomic factors to deal with climate impacts, or impeding efforts to implement SDGs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation methods considering historical roots of current vulnerabilities can identify viable solutions, which are difficult to undertake because of path dependencies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Inclusive planning initiatives such as community-based anticipatory adaptation combined with ‘two-way learning’ that considers future scenarios and different adaptation pathways can prevent maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A/R programmes can negatively affect a range of substantial and procedural Indigenous Peoples’ rights entrenched in international human rights law (Table 5.22) and their potential for climate change adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Policies and safeguards attached to specific A/R initiatives determine their impact (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These trends are connected to climate change as financial investments are influenced by the likelihood that climate change will increase commodity and farmland price variability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change will affect the food–energy–water (FEW) nexus, commonly in the form of risk multiplier (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing demands for food, energy and water can lead to domestic and international conflict, including political instability and migration, often in the context of drought (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Several adaptation options have high to medium feasibility, with robust evidence, high agreement about the adaptive capacity resilience building potential of options in relation to climate change impact drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most adaptation options have medium to high microeconomic feasibility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher-scored options to reduce risk included increasing biodiversity (at landscape and field level), community seed banks, conventional breeding (plant and animals), mixed systems and agroecological approaches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Most options have high scores for enhancing social well-being and economic and environmental benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There were low scores for potential maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Improved design and delivery of climate services can enhance effectiveness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Bundling additional services such as market information with climate information may be effective at plugging information gaps (low confidence) (Chatuphale and Armstrong, 2018; Tsan et al., 2019; Tesfaye et al., 2019) There may be inequality in access to climate services; their use may tend to benefit large-scale operations and disadvantage small- and medium- scale farmers and others who face issues of access due to social and economic inequity; also some groups such as pastoralists have not yet benefitted from climate services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To address smallholder vulnerability to climate change impacts, however, additional policy support beyond agroecology will be needed that is context specific; for example, addressing farmer capacity, limited political power to access land, water, seeds and other key natural resources, structural gender inequities, policy and market disincentives that support large-scale monocultures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Food security and nutrition: Agroecological practices can increase household food security and nutrition for producer households, with more evidence in low- and medium-income countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Community-based participatory scenario planning can help identify multiple climate stressors and vulnerabilities to develop effective adaptation plans (Fernández- Giménez et al., 2015; Bennett et al., 2016; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter).Different dimensions of agroecological transitions as a transformative climate change adaptation strategyLinks to climate change impacts, benefits, trade-offs and constraints to imple- mentation with examples Policy tools: Investment in agroecological approaches that are designed for socio-ecological context, farmer-led schools, co-learning platforms, and networks of farmers, scientists, private sector and civil society can support agroecological transitions at a regional scale (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Small to mid-sized farms can more effectively integrate agroecological methods such as increasing landscape diversity, on-farm diversity and intercrops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Other drivers of agroecological transitions can include crises (environmental, economic or social), social movements, changing socio-cultural values, addressing social inequities, and discourse (Pérez-Marin et al., 2017; Mier y Terán Giménez Cacho et al., 2018; Anderson et al., 2019a).Further research could provide context-specific information about economic and ecological benefits of some practices and combinations, with effective policies to support their implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence on strengthening local and regional food systems with a food sovereignty approach, in terms of access to resources (land, seeds, water), shortened food chains and CbA strategies suggest that these strategies can positively contribute to climate change adaptation in many contexts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation strategies can have negative impacts on marginalised social groups and worsen socioeconomic inequities unless explicit efforts are made to address unequal power dynamics and differences in access to resources in agricultural, fisheries, aquaculture, livestock and forestry systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Where Indigenous Peoples have access to and control over their lands and natural resources, food systems can potentially be more sustainably managed and more resilient (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective adaptation requires a more holistic approach that includes the recognition of Indigenous rights, governance systems and laws (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Education utilising IK and LK can help prevent maladaptation options (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In general CSA programmes have tended to overlook questions of inequity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Policies around property and grazing rights are directly linked to small-scale food producer vulnerability, and land ownership changes will pose a key challenge as climate change Box 5.13: Supporting Youth Adaptation in Food Systems Young people are key agents in agrifood systems: both a vulnerable group, and one that can foster systemic change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Rural youth in these sectors are particularly vulnerable, often with less access to land, water, capital and other resources, shaped by family and social relations, and fewer opportunities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In these vulnerable regions, climate change compounds other drivers such as poverty to increase youth out-migration to urban areas or other regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Young low-income rural women may be particularly marginalised and vulnerable due to systemic gender inequities in access to land, credit, employment, institutions and other resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Youth play a critical role in all sectors of the food system (HLPE, 2021; Figure Box 5.13.1), and some are actively pursuing work and innovation in agrifood systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At the same time, due to heightened awareness about climate change, youth may be more willing to apply climate adaptation strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Harnessing youth innovation and vision to address climate change alongside other SDGs such as gender inequity and rural poverty will be a crucial strategy to ensure resilient economies in food systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Financial barriers limit implementation of adaptation options in agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Expanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks can enable and incentivise climate change adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Government agencies and multilateral institutions –Strengthen enabling environments for sustainable production and ecosystem protection (e.g., price transparency; information exchange; international coordination) –Support demonstration projects for sustainable land and resource management (e.g., grants) –Disaster risk reduction (e.g., national disaster funds; social protection programmes; contingent credit lines; sovereign/sub-sovereign insurance (Global Commission on Adaptation, 2019) –Increase resilience through early-warning systems, infrastructure, and capacity building (e.g., climate change adaptation funds) –Increase revenues for adaptation activities (e.g., income/luxury taxes) –Reduce production risks (e.g., agricultural subsidies) –Promote advanced technology implementation (e.g., tax incentives) –Coordinate and align donor funding with national priorities (e.g., multi-donor national climate change funds) –Incentivise and de-risk commercial investments (e.g., interest rate reduction programmes, structured financing, guarantee funds) (Woodard et al., 2019) Methods to strengthen adaptation finance include updating regulations and policies to support adaptation finance instruments (e.g., climate accounting standards), requiring climate-risk disclosure, improved information-sharing among public and private sector actors and devolving funding to local actors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Production insuranceCompensation for specified losses related to production (e.g., insurance indexed to specific weather events) or supply chains (e.g., shipping insurance) Market and price insurance Compensation for specified market-related losses (e.g., price or currency fluctuation) Grants: Concessionary funding provided by public or philanthropic entities to support climate adaptation costs or outcomes (no expectation of repayment) Direct supportFunding for provision of goods (e.g., fertilizer, seeds, nursery stock) or services (e.g., technical assistance, product storage) to producers, local companies or intermediaries (e.g., for agronomic or business management expertise); can reduce credit risk when part of blended finance arrangements Performance-based grantsGrants or other concessionary funding contingent on achievement of defined adaptation outcomes (with possible third-party verification requirement); may support development and testing of new approaches (i.e., design funding; challenges/prizes) Governmental instruments Policy incentivesPublic policies designed to stimulate adaptation action among targeted groups (e.g., producers, consumers, agri-businesses, financiers) including direct or indirect subsidies (e.g., producer payments, tax breaks, health insurance), procurement policies (e.g., low carbon and sustainability criteria; nutrition-sensitive school feeding programmes) and other fiscal measures (e.g., infrastructure development; funding R&D in climate-resilient practices or technologies) (Shukla et al., 2019) Development aidInternational or domestic programmes that directly or indirectly fund adaptation actions including financial transfers (e.g., producer support or anti-poverty programmes) and subsidised credit (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased technology innovation, stakeholder integration and transparent governance structures and procedures at local to global scales are key to successful bioeconomy deployment maximising benefits and managing trade-offs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Limited global land and biomass resources accompanied by growing demands for food, feed, fibre and fuels, together with prospects for a paradigm shift towards phasing out fossil fuels, set the frame for potentially fierce competition for land and biomass to meet burgeoning demands even as climate change increasingly limits natural resource potentials (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sustainable agriculture and forestry, technology innovation in bio-based production within a circular economy and international cooperation and governance of global trade in products to reflect and disincentivise their environmental and social externalities can provide mitigation and adaptation via bioeconomy development that responds to the needs and perspectives of multiple stakeholders to achieve outcomes that maximise synergies while limiting trade-offs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In summary, there is significant scope for optimising use of land resources to produce more biomass while reducing adverse effects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Context-specific prioritisation, technology innovation in bio-based production, integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms to enhance synergies and minimise trade-offs can mitigate the pressure on managed as well as natural and semi-natural ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Yet, energy conservation and efficiency measures, and deployment of technologies and systems that do not rely on carbon-based energy and materials, are essential for mitigating biomass demand growth as countries pursue ambitious climate goals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urbanisation processes generate vulnerability and exposure which combine with climate change hazards to drive urban risk and impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, the most rapid growth in urban vulnerability and exposure has been in cities and settlements where adaptive capacity is limited, especially in unplanned and informal settlements in low- and middle-income nations and in smaller and medium-sized urban centres (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Losses become systemic when affecting entire systems and can even jump from one system to another (e.g., drought impacting on rural food production contributing to urban food insecurity) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Vulnerabilities are shaped by drivers of inequality, including gender, class, race, ethnic origin, age, level of ability, sexuality and non-conforming gender orientation, framed by cultural norms, diverse values and practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have pushed an additional 119 to 124 million people into poverty in 2020, with South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa each contributing roughly two-fifths of this total (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Sea level increase and increases in tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding, with more than a billion people located in low-lying cities and settlements expected to be at risk from coastal-specific climate hazards by 2050 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level rise, increases in tropical cyclone storm surges and more frequent and intense extreme precipitation will increase the number of people, area of urban land, and damages from flood hazard (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many of these plans focus narrowly on climate risk reduction, missing opportunities to advance co-benefits of climate mitigation and sustainable development, compounding inequality and reducing well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The greatest gaps between policy and action are in failures to manage adaptation of social infrastructure (community facilities, services and networks) and failure to address complex interconnected risks for example in the food–energy–water– health nexus or the inter-relationships of air quality and climate risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Governance capacity, financial support and the legacy of past urban infrastructure investment constrain how all cities and settlements are able to adapt (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These include the limited ability to identify social vulnerability and community strengths; the absence of integrated planning to protect communities; and the lack of access to innovative funding arrangements and limited capability to manage finance and commercial insurance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Private and business investment in key infrastructure, housing construction and through insurance requirements can also drive widespread adaptive action, though at times excluding the priorities of the poor (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Transnational networks of local government can also enhance city level capacity, share lessons and advocacy (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)