rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Changes in temperature-related CIDs such as mean temperatures, growing season length, extreme heat and frost have already occurred and many of these changes have been attributed to human activities (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Mean temperatures and heat extremes have emerged above natural variability in all land regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Ocean acidification and deoxygenation have already emerged over most of the global open ocean, as has reduction in Arctic sea ice (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Increasing precipitation is projected to emerge before the middle of the century in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Decreasing precipitation will emerge in a very few regions (Mediterranean, Southern Africa, south-western Australia) (medium confidence) by mid-century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The anthropogenic forced signal in near-coast relative sea level rise will emerge by mid-century RCP8.5 in all regions with coasts, except in the West Antarctic region where emergence is projected to occur before 2100 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The signal of ocean acidification in the surface ocean is projected to emerge before 2050 in every ocean basin (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Apart from a few regions with substantial land uplift, relative sea level rise is very likely to virtually certain (depending on the region) to continue in the 21st century, contributing to increased coastal flooding in most low-lying coastal areas (high confidence) and coastal erosion along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding will increase in many regions around the world (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Increases in river flooding are also expected in Western and Central Europe and in polar regions (high confidence), most of Asia, Australasia, North America, the South American Monsoon region and South-Eastern South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Mean winds are projected to slightly decrease by 2050 over much of Europe, Asia and Western North America, and increase in many parts of South America except Patagonia, West and South Africa and the eastern Mediterranean (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Extratropical storms are expected to have a decreasing frequency but increasing intensity over the Mediterranean, increasing intensity over most of North America, and an increase in both intensity and frequency over most of Europe (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Enhanced convective conditions are expected in North America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Tropical cyclones are expected to increase in intensity despite a decrease in frequency in most tropical regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Dangerous humid heat thresholds, such as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Heat Index (NOAA HI) of 41°C, will be exceeded much more frequently under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than under SSP1-2.6 and will affect many more regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In many tropical regions, the number of days per year where an HI of 41°C is exceeded will increase by more than 100 days relative to the recent past under SSP5-8.5, while this increase will be limited to less than 50 days under SSP1-2.6 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The frequency of the present-day 1-in- 100 year extreme sea level event (represented here by extreme total water level) is also projected to increase substantially in most regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
These include both mean and extreme heat, cold, wet and dry hazards; cryospheric hazards (snow cover, ice extent, permafrost); and oceanic hazards (marine heatwaves) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
For some of these, a quantitative relation can be drawn (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
For other hazards (e.g., ice-sheet behaviour, glacier mass loss, global mean sea level rise, coastal floods and coastal erosion) the time and/or scenario dimensions remain critical and a simple relation with GWLs cannot be drawn (high confidence), but still quantitative estimates assuming specific time frames and/ or stabilized GWLs can be derived (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Model uncertainty challenges the link between specific GWLs and tipping points and irreversible behaviour, but their occurrence cannot be excluded and their chances increase with warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Section 6.5 notes that climate change will have a small burden on particulate matter (PM) pollution (medium confidence) while the main controlling factor in determining future concentrations will be future emissions policy for PM and their precursors (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over Asia, the CMIP5 multi-model mean response shows that solar radiation will decrease in South Asia and increase in East Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projected solar resources show an increasing trend throughout the 21st century in East Asia under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in CMIP5 simulations (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
More sunshine is projected over Australia in winter and spring by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In Central and South America, there is medium confidence of increasing solar radiation over the Amazon basin and the northern part of South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Increasing radiation trends are also found over southern and eastern USA, and decreasing trends over North-Western North America (Wild et al., 2015; Losada Carreño et al., 2020), despite large differences between responses from regional climate models (RCMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) over southern and eastern USA (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Mean annual temperatures have increased at a high rate since the mid-20th century, reaching 0.2°C–0.5°C per decade in some regions such as north, north- eastern, west and south-western Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
A very likely warming with ranges between 0.5°C and 2.5°C is projected by the mid-century for all scenarios depending on the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme heat: Warm extremes have increased in most of the regions (high confidence), NEAF, SEAF and MDG (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
A substantial increase in heatwave magnitude and frequency over most of the Africa domain is projected for even 2°C global warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Heating degree days will have a substantial decrease by the end of the century for up to about one month under RCP8.5 in North and Southern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Heatwaves and deadly heat stress and the frequency of exceedance of hot temperature thresholds (e.g., 35°C) will drastically increase by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The Western Africa region features a gradient in which precipitation decreases in the west and increases in the east and increase is also projected over Eastern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
A change in monsoon seasonality is also reported in Western Africa and Sahel (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
In particular, over Western Africa, upward trends in hydrological extremes such as maximum peak discharge have likely occurred during the last few decades (i.e., after 1980) and have caused increased flood events in riparian countries of rivers such as Niger, Senegal and Volta (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In Southern Africa, trends in flood occurrences were decreasing prior to 1980 and increasing afterwards (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In addition, East Africa has experienced strong precipitation variability and intense wet spells leading to widespread pluvial flooding events hitting most countries including Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Finally, with respect to Southern Africa, heavy precipitations events have increased in frequency (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Extreme precipitation intensity is also increasing in several other regions, such as SAH, NEAF, SEAF, ESAF and MDG (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Hydrological drought: Section 11.9 noted observed decreases in hydrological drought over the Mediterranean (high confidence) and diminished summer river flows in West Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Section 11.9 assesses increases in agricultural and ecological drought at 2°C GWL for North Africa and West Southern Africa (high confidence) and for East Southern Africa and Madagascar (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Days prone to fire conditions are going to increase in all extratropical Africa until the end of the century and fire weather indices are projected to largely increase in North and Southern Africa, where increasing aridity trends occur (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Most African regions will undergo an increase in heavy precipitation that can lead to pluvial floods (high confidence), even as increasing dry climatic impact-drivers (aridity, hydrological, agricultural and ecological droughts, fire weather) are generally projected in the North Africa and Southern African regions (high confidence) and western portions of West Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Over Western Africa and Southern Africa a future significant increase in wind speeds and wind energy potential is expected (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The frequency of Mediterranean wind storms reaching North Africa, including Medicanes, is projected to decrease, but their intensities are projected to increase, by the mid-century and beyond under SRES A1B, SRES A2 and RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
However, there is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, South Eastern Africa and East Southern Africa in a 1°C, 2°C and 3°C warmer world (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Dust loadings and related air pollution hazards (from fine particles that affect health) are projected to generally decrease in many regions of the Sahara and Sahel due to the changing winds (Evan et al., 2016) and slightly increase over the Guinea coast and West Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Observation and future projection of African glacier mass changes are assessed in Section 9.5.1 within the low-latitude glacier region, which is one of the regions with the largest mass loss even under low-emissions scenarios (assessment of this region is dominated by glaciers in the South American Andes, however) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Snow water equivalent and snow cover season duration also decline in the East African mountains, Ethiopian Highlands and Atlas Mountains with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme total water level (ETWL) magnitude and occurrence frequency are expected to increase throughout the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections indicate that a vast majority of sandy coasts in the region will experience shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Relative sea level rise is virtually certain to continue around Africa, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Marine heatwaves are also expected to increase around the region over the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Records also indicate a higher rate of warming in minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures in Asia, leading to more frequent warm nights and warm days, and less frequent cold days and cold nights (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections show continued warming over Asia in the future with contrasted regional patterns across the continent (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
For RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 at the end of the century, the mean estimated warming exceeds 5°C in WSB, ESB and RFE and 7°C in some parts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In these regions, the increase in number of days with exceedance of 35°C of high heat stress is also expected to increase substantially for the mid- century under SSP5-8.5 (typically by 10–50 days except in Arctic and Siberian regions), and by more than 60 days in areas of SEA, and a large difference is found between low- and high-end scenarios in the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over WSB, ESB and RFE also, an increase of extreme heat durations and frequency is expected in all scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Cold spell and frost: Cold spells intensity and frequency, as well as the number of frost days, in most Asian regions have been decreasing since the beginning of the 20th century (high confidence) (Chapter 11; Sheikh et al., 2015; Donat et al., 2016; Erlat and Türkeş, 2016; S. Dong et al., 2018; Liao et al., 2018, 2020; Lu et al., 2018; van Oldenborgh et al., 2019), except for the central Eurasian regions, where there was a cooling trend during 1995–2014, which is linked to sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In Asia, temperatures have warmed during the last century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme heat episodes have become more frequent in most regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Mean precipitation is likely to increase in most areas of northern (WSB, ESB, RFE), southern (ECA, TIB, SAS) and East Asia (EAS) in different scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
River flood: Flood risk has grown in many places in China from 1961 to 2017 (Kundzewicz et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
In SAS, the numbers of flood events and human fatalities have increased in India during 1978–2006 (Singh and Kumar, 2013), whereas the average country-wide inundation depth has been decreasing during 2002–2010 in Bangladesh, attributed to improved flood management (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Over China floods will increase with different levels under different warming scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Monsoon floods will be more intense in SAS (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
A changing snowmelt regime in the mountains may contribute to a shift of spring floods to earlier periods in Central Asia in future (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-21st century in major Siberian rivers, and annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2–5% relative to the baseline period (1990–1999) under RCP8.5 scenario (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Heavy precipitation is very likely to become more intense and frequent in all areas of Asia except in ARP (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Aridity: Aridity in West Central Asia and parts of South Asia increased in recent decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
There was a drying tendency in the dry season and significant wetting in the wet season in the Philippines during 1951–2010 (Villafuerte et al., 2014), and slight wetting in Vietnam during 1980–2017 (Stojanovic et al., 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Hydrological drought: Section 11.9 indicates that limited evidence and inconsistent regional trends gives low confidence to observed and projected changes in hydrological drought in all Asian regions at a 2°C GWL (approximately mid-century), although West Central Asia hydrological droughts increase at the 4°C GWL (approximately end- of-century under higher emissions scenarios) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Higher future temperatures are expected to alter the seasonal profile of hydrologic droughts given reduced summer snowmelt (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Studies examining a 2°C GWL give low confidence for projected broad changes to agricultural and ecological drought across all Asia regions, although at 4°C GWL agricultural and ecological drought increases are projected for West Central Asia and East Asia along with a decrease in South Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather: Under the global warming scenario of 2°C, the magnitude of length and frequency of fire seasons are projected to increase with strong effects in India, China and Russia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The potential burned areas in five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) will increase by 2–8% in the 2030s and 3–13% in the 2080s compared with the baseline (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify particularly in the northern regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
But a short-term strengthening in SWS was observed during the winter since 2000 in eastern China (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Tropical cyclone: There was an increase in the number and intensification rate of intense tropical cyclones (TC), such as Category 4–5 (wind speeds >58 m s–1), in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Bay of Bengal since the mid-1980s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
However, while the analysis shows fewer typhoons, more extreme TCs have affected the Philippines (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
The frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has significantly increased over time over the Arabian Sea and insignificantly decreased over the Bay of Bengal during 1977–2018 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
As a consequence, the intensity of TCs affecting the Japan Islands would increase in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario (Yoshida et al., 2017), whereas the frequency of TCs affecting the Philippine region and Vietnam is projected to decrease (Kieu-Thi et al., 2016; C. Wang et al., 2017; Gallo et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Dust storm frequency in most regions of northern China show a decreasing trend since the 1960s due to the decrease in surface wind speed (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In conclusion, surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Observations do show significant changes in the seasonal timing of Eurasian snow cover extent (especially for earlier spring snowmelt) since the 1970s, with seasonal changes expected to continue in the future (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
All regions show continuing decline in glacier mass and area in the coming century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Although enhanced meltwater from snow and glaciers largely offsets hydrological drought-like conditions (Pritchard, 2019), this effect is unsustainable and may reverse as these cryospheric buffers disappear (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In the Himalayas and the TIB region higher temperatures will lead to higher glacier melt rates and significant glacier shrinkage and a summer runoff decrease (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Glacier runoff in the Asian high mountains will increase up to mid-century, and after that runoff might decrease due to the loss of glacier storage (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
As many of these lakes will develop at the immediate foot of steep icy peaks with degrading permafrost and decreasing slope stability, the risk of glacier lake outburst floods and floods from landslides into moraine-dammed lakes is increasing in Asian high mountains (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Permafrost : Permafrost is thawing in Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The permafrost area is projected to decline by 13.4–27.7% and 60–90% in TIB (L. Zhao et al., 2020) and 32% ± 11% and 76% ± 12% in Russia (Guo and Wang, 2016) by the end of the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Lake and river ice: Lake ice cover duration got shorter in many lakes in TIB (Yao et al., 2016; Cai et al., 2019; Guo et al., 2020) and some other areas such as north-west China (Cai et al., 2020) and north-east China (Yang et al., 2019) in the last two decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Climate warming also leads to a significant reduction in the period with ice phenomena and the decrement of ice regime hazard in Russian lowland rivers (Agafonova et al., 2017), and the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River in northern China (Wan et al., 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Lake ice and river ice in Asia are expected to decline with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Observational results generally show a decrease in the frequency and an increase in the mean intensity of snowfalls in most Chinese regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Because of the decrease in the snow frequency, the occurrence of large-scale snow disasters in TIB decreased (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Large parts of northern high-latitude continents (including Siberia and RFE) have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls in the past few winters, and the reduction of Arctic sea ice would increase the chance of heavy snowfall events in those regions in the coming decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Heavy snowfall is projected to occur more frequently in Japan’s Northern Alps, the inland areas of Honshu Island and Hokkaido Island (Kawase et al., 2016, 2020; MOE et al., 2018), and the heavy wet snowfall can be enhanced over the mountainous regions in central Japan and northern part of Japan (Ohba and Sugimoto, 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Tree-ring-based snow avalanche reconstructions in the Indian Himalayas show an increase in avalanche occurrence and runout distances in recent decades (Ballesteros-Cánovas et al., 2018).In summary, snowpack and glaciers are projected to continue decreasing and permafrost to continue thawing in Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
RSL change in many coastal areas in Asia, especially in EAS, is affected by land subsidence due to sediment compaction under building mass and groundwater extraction (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Sea level rise and land subsidence will jointly lead to more flooding in delta areas in Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme total water level magnitude and occurrence frequency are expected to increase throughout the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections indicate that a majority of sandy coasts in the Asia region will experience shoreline retreat (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Relative sea level rise is very likely to continue around Asia, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low- lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The SROCC also projects an increase of mean significant wave height across the Southern Ocean (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Heat thresholds potentially affecting agriculture and health, such as 35°C or 40°C, are projected to be exceeded more frequently over the 21st century in Australia under all RCPs (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The projected frequency of exceeding dangerous humid heat thresholds is increasing in Australia, with a strong increase in Northern Australia for RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Cold spell and frost: Excepting parts of Southern Australia, the Australasian region has a significant trend of decreasing frequency in cold extremes since the 1950s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The mean temperature in Australasia is virtually certain to continue to rise through the 21st century, accompanied by less frequent cold extremes (virtually certain) and frost days (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Heat stress is projected to increase in Australia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in Central and north-east Australia (low confidence) and in the south and west of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
While median annual runoff is projected to decrease in most of Australia (Chiew et al., 2017), consistent with projected decreases in average rainfall (CSIRO and BOM, 2015; Alexander and Arblaster, 2017), river floods are projected to increase due to more intense extreme rainfall events and associated increase in runoff (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Aridity: In terms of dry climatic impact-drivers, a substantial decrease in precipitation has been observed across Southern Australia during the cool season (April–October) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather indices are projected to increase in most of Australia (high confidence) and many parts of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)