rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities and approaches including nature-based solutions, such as wetland restoration and water storage and infiltration infrastructure, with synergies for ecosystem conservation and disaster risk reduction, have been found to be more successful for adaptation and sustainable development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation requires governance improvements and new strategies to address the changing climate; nevertheless, barriers limiting adaptive capacity persist such as lack of educational programmes for farmers, adequate knowledge of site-specific adaptation and institutional and financial constraints (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regulation, planning and control systems are central tools for reducing risk associated with the security of buildings and their location and the proper supply of basic urban services and transport (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The adoption of nature-based solutions (e.g., urban agriculture and river restoration) and hybrid (grey-green) infrastructure is still in the early stages, with weak connections to poverty and inequality reduction strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Focusing on risk reduction encompasses upgrading informal and precarious settlements, built environments and housing conditions, which offer an important but still limited contribution to urban adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Political, institutional and financial barriers reduce the feasibility of implementing these tools (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
IKLK can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of local communities to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change is projected to convert existing risks in the region into severe key risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Small fisheries and farming of seafood will be negatively affected as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events become more frequent and intense and ocean warming and acidification continues (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Disruption in water flows will significantly degrade ecosystems such as high-elevation wetlands and affect farming communities, public health and energy production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This can happen through expanded distribution of vectors, especially viral infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in transition areas between urban and suburban, or rural settings, and upslope in the mountains (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The combined effect of both impacts will lead to a long-term decrease in carbon stocks in forest biomass, compromising Amazonia’s role as a carbon sink, largely conditioned on the forest’s responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The southern portion of the Amazon has become a net carbon source to the atmosphere in the past decade (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Available studies focus mainly on vertebrates and plants of the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado in Brazil and in CA, with a large knowledge gap on freshwater ecosystems {12.3, 12.5.1, CCP1} Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region will continue to be highly impacted by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, by 2050, virtually every coral reef will experience at least one severe bleaching event per year (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under all RCP scenarios of climate change, there will be changes in the geographical distribution of marine species and ocean and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, estuaries and rocky shores, as well as those species held in fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Socioeconomic and political factors that provide some level of safety and continuity of policies and actions are critical enablers of adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Conflicts in which the direct biophysical impacts of climate change play a major role can unleash protests and strengthen social movements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Initiatives to improve informal and precarious settlement, guaranteeing access to land and decent housing, are aligned with comprehensive adaptation policies that include the development and reduction of poverty, inequality and disaster risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation policies often address climate impact drivers, but seldom include the social and economic underpinnings of vulnerability. This narrow scope limits adaptation results and compromises their continuity in the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Dialogue and agreement that include multiple actors are mechanisms to acknowledge trade-offs and promote dynamic, site-specific adaptation options (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Yet it is a region of substantial social inequality including the highest inequality in land tenure, where a large percentage of the population remains below the poverty line, unequally distributed between rural and urban areas and along aspects like gender and race; these groups are highly vulnerable to climate change and natural extreme events that frequently affect the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous Peoples and smallholder families are lacking adequate climate policies combined with institutions to protect their property rights; this could result in a more sustainable process of agricultural expansion, without substantially increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the vulnerability of those populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Inadequate governance and lack of participation escalates the vulnerability and risk to climate variability and change in the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing trends in precipitation had been observed in SES (Figure 12.1), in contrast to decreasing trends in CA and central- southern Chile (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Significant dependency on rainfed agriculture (>30% in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua) indicates high sensitivity to climatic variability and change and represents a challenge for food security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Though reduced suitability and yield for beans, coffee, maize, plantain and rice are expected in CA (SRCCL Chapter 5, Mbow et al., 2019), limiting the warming to 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, are projected to result in smaller net reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops for CSA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections of potential impacts of climate change on malaria confirm that weather and climate are among the drivers of geographic range, intensity of transmission, and seasonality; the changes of risk become more complex with additional warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
This reduction has modified the frequency, magnitude and location of related natural hazards, while the exposure of people and infrastructure has increased because of growing population, tourism and economic development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This conversion of natural ecosystems is the main cause of biodiversity and ecosystem loss and is an important source of GHG emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The combination of continued anthropogenic disturbance, particularly deforestation, with global warming may result in dieback of forest in Central and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, agricultural expansion results in large conversions in tropical dry woodlands and savannahs in SA (Brazilian Cerrado, Caatinga and Chaco) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events have increased, but droughts have mixed signals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Massive heatwave events and increase in the frequency of warm extremes are projected at the end of the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The main climate impact drivers like extreme heat, drought, relative SLR, coastal flooding, erosion, marine heatwaves, ocean aridity (high confidence) and aridity, drought and wildfires will increase by mid- century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The rainy season in CA will likely experience more pronounced MSD by the end of this century, with a signal for reduced minimum precipitation by mid-century for the June July August (JJA) and September October November (SON) quarters, and a broader second peak is projected, consistent with the future south displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CA is one of the regions most exposed to climatic phenomena; with long coastlines and lowland areas, the region is repeatedly affected by drought, intense rains, cyclones and ENSO events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability in most sectors is considered high or very high (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hydro-meteorological events, such as storm surges and TCs, are the most frequent extreme events and have the highest impact (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Food insecurity is a serious impact of climate change in a region where 10% of the GDP depends on agriculture, livestock and fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Studies have shown that the incidence of some vector-borne and zoonotic diseases in CA is correlated to climatic variables, particularly temperature and rainfall (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heat stress is another health concern in this already warm and humid part of the world (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Decreasing water availability is another impact of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Impacts on rural livelihoods, particularly for small and medium-sized farmers and Indigenous Peoples in mountains, include an overall reduction in production, yield (Table 12.4), suitable farming area and water availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The extent and quality of suitable areas for basic grains are expected to contract (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mesoamerica, a biodiversity hotspot spanning across CA and southern Mexico, is a global priority for terrestrial biodiversity conservation, and it is projected to be negatively impacted by climate change, especially through the contraction of distribution of native species as the area becomes increasingly dryer (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Significant increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and significant decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes (Dereczynski et al., 2020; Dunn et al., 2020) were likely observed. Insufficient data coverage and trends in available data are generally not significant for heavy precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Nevertheless, models project inconsistent changes in the region for extreme precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The Eastern Tropical Pacific, particularly Sector Niño 3.4, will see the worst increase in SST, affecting industrial and small-scale fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The Andean piedmont (500–1200 metres above sea level [MASL]) ecosystems and crops and elevation ranges above the treeline are more exposed to thermal anomalies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Temperature rise, combined with precipitation and floods, leaves people more exposed to epidemics (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
A more significant exposure is related to lower socioeconomic conditions, poor health and marginalisation (Oliver- Smith, 2014).12.3.2.3 Vulnerability Local economies reliant on limited and specialised resources, highly dependent on ecosystem services such as water and soil fertility, such as alpaca and llama herders or small-scale fishers, are among the more vulnerable (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Their vulnerabilities increase as a result of unequal chains of value, incomplete transfers of technology and other socioeconomic and environmental drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Informal housing and settlements, usually located in areas exposed to the highest level of risk, exacerbates vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Most cities and infrastructure are considered highly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Also biodiversity and water-dependent activities where seasonality and rainfall patterns are changing and where other non-climatic sources of change, such as land use, affect the capacity of ecosystems to provide hydrological services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Scale studies indicate an increase of flood risk during the 21st century, consistent with more frequent floods, with the risk being worse in higher emission scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Those living on riverbanks and in slums built on steep slopes are among the most affected by floods of all kinds (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased SST, coupled with stronger ENSO events, will affect marine life and fisheries by loss of productive habitat, disruption of nutrient structure, productivity and alteration of species migration patterns, leading to changes in fishing rates, which will impact coastal livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Irrigation, potable water, health and education infrastructures, as well as roads, bridges, cities and residential constructions, are frequently damaged or destroyed by extreme precipitation events, which also impact sediment transport, river erosion and annual discharge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The increasing variability of precipitation has compromised rainfed agriculture and power generation, particularly in the dry season (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For the Amazon–Andes transition zone, the impacts of hydrological variability and transport of sediments have been noticed in riparian agriculture and biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increases in vector-borne diseases can be related to increases in rainfall and minimum temperatures during ENSO events (Stewart- Ibarra and Lowe, 2013) and the expansion of the diseases’ altitudinal distribution (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will contribute to increased malaria vectorial capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Glacier volume loss and permafrost thawing will continue in all scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changing glaciers, snow and permafrost (Figure 12.13), in synergy with land use change, have implications for the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of derived floods and landslides (high confidence) (Huggel et al., 2007; Iribarren Anacona et al., 2015; Emmer, 2017; Mark et al., 2017), as well as for landscape transformation through lake formation or drying and for alterations in hydrological dynamics, with impacts on water for human consumption, agriculture, industry, hydroelectric generation, carbon sequestration and biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Water flow has decreased in several basins, such as the Shullcas River in the Cordillera Huaytapallana in Peru, and is expected to decrease in the near future in places such as the Cordillera Blanca in Peru (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Disruptions in water flows will significantly degrade or eliminate high-elevation wetlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Glacier retreat impacts Andean pastoralists (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Species distribution is changing upslope due to increasing air temperature, leading to range contraction and local extinctions of highland species, whereas lowland species are experiencing range contractions at the rear end and expansions in the front end, including vectors of diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shifts in tree species distribution may result in decreased above-ground carbon stocks and productivity in tropical mountain forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The agricultural frontier of crops, such as potatoes or maize, is moving upwards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Modelling exercises agree with the observed impacts in species, ecosystem processes, crop impacts and related pests and diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts presented mixed trends between sub-regions, but evidence indicates an increasing length of dry periods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The LECZ of Venezuela, Guyana and Suriname are highly vulnerable to climate change due to SLR (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Deforestation, temperature increase and any factor affecting forest ecosystem dynamics will have an impact on atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and, hence, on the global climate (Ruiz-Vásquez et al., 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020).There is robust scientific evidence of the high vulnerability of Amazon rainforests to increasing temperature and repeated extreme drought events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nevertheless, the combined effect of increasing tree mortality with variations in growth results in a long- term decrease in C stocks in forest biomass, compromising the role of these forests as a C sink (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The occurrence of extreme droughts has affected the carbon and water cycles in large areas of the Amazon rainforest (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Protected areas—Indigenous lands included—have significantly reduced forest clear-cutting in the Amazon deforestation arc (most of which is inside SAM) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The agriculture in the region is highly dependent on the climate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The rise of a large-scale soybean agroindustry in the early 2000s led to a faster increase in human development indicators in some regions, tightly linked to the agricultural production chain (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The populations of some of these cities are reported as being highly vulnerable considering the enormous social inequalities embedded in these cities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Inequalities and uneven access to infrastructure, housing and healthcare increase populations’ vulnerability to atmospheric pollution and drier conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most diverse savannah in the world, with more than 12,600 plant species, with 35% being endemic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Historic land cover change and concurrent climate change in the region strongly impacted the biodiversity and led to the extinction of 657 plant species for the Cerrado, which is more than four times the global recorded plant extinctions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Due to the tight relationship between drought and fire occurrence, an increase of 39% to 95% of burned area is modelled to impact the Cerrado region under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while under RCP2.6, a 22% overshoot in temperature is estimated to impact the area in 2050 decreasing to 11% overshoot by 2100 (Silva et al., 2019d), leading to a high impact on agricultural production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme floods in the southern Amazon and Bolivian Amazon floodplains were described and related to the exceptionally warm sub-tropical South Atlantic ocean (high confidence) (Espinoza et al., 2014), causing high economic impacts (losses in crop and livestock production and infrastructure) and number of fatalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The climatic connection of Pantanal regions to the Amazon, and the influence of deforestation in local precipitation (Marengo et al., 2018) has implications for conservation of ecosystem services and water security in Pantanal (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The projected impacts of climate change will lead to profound changes in the annual flood dynamics for Pantanal wetlands, altering ecosystem functioning and severely affecting biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Soybean and corn yields in the Cerrado region will suffer one of the strongest negative impacts under the estimates of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and will require high levels of investment in adaptation should they continue to be cultivated in the same areas as currently (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Thus, the future socioeconomic vigour of the region will be, to a large extent, connected to an unlikely stability of the regional climate and eventual fluctuations of global markets potentially affecting the agricultural supply chain (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Northwest SAM had an approximately 54% increase in the incidence of respiratory diseases associated with forest fires during the 2005 drought compared to a no-drought 10-year mean (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increases in hospital admissions, asthma, DNA damage and lung cell death due to the inhalation of fine particulate matter represent an increase in public health system costs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Global-scale studies indicate an increase of flood risk for the SAM region during the 21st century (consistent with floods that are more frequent) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A decrease in total precipitation is projected with high confidence, with an increase in heavy precipitation events and an increase in dryness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
People are exposed to intense drought and famine (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
People, infrastructure and economic activities are exposed to SLR in the 3800 km of coastline (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Caatinga’s high vulnerability to climate change is further increased by the extensive conversion of native vegetation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Studies with terrestrial animals show that habitat loss increases the vulnerability of species to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
NES’s coral reefs have shown some resilience to bleaching, but vulnerability is intensified by the synergy between chronic heat stress caused by increased SST (Teixeira et al., 2019) and other well-documented stressors, such as coastal runoff, urban development, marine tourism, overexploitation of reef organisms and oil extraction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
More than 10 million people have been impacted by the drought of 2012/2014 in the region, which was responsible for water shortage and contamination, increasing death by diarrhoea (Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015; Government of Brazil, 2020).There is growing evidence of the impacts of climate change on human health in NES, mostly linked to food and water insecurity caused by recurrent long droughts (e.g., gastroenteritis and hepatitis) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent studies predict strong negative impacts of climate change on NES’s agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Over SES most stations have registered an increase in annual rainfall, largely attributable to changes in the warm season; this is one of few sub-regions where a robust positive trend in precipitation and significant intensification of heavy precipitation have been detected since the early 20th century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing trends in mean air temperature and extreme heat and decreasing cold spells are projected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increases in mean precipitation (high confidence), pluvial floods and river floods are projected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Droughts in the River Plate basin will be more frequent in the medium term (2011–2040) and the distant future (2071–2100) (with respect to the 1979–2008 period), but also shorter and more severe, for the more extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
All coastal and oceanic climate impact drivers (relative sea level, coastal flood and erosion, marine heatwaves and ocean aridity) are expected to increase by mid-century in the RCP8.5 scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the River Plate basin, urban floods have become more frequent, causing infrastructure damage and sometimes substantial mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A large increase in landslides and flash floods is also predicted for the Brazilian portion of SES, where they are responsible for the majority of deaths related to disasters in the country (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urban heat islands are already a reality in large cities in the region, such as Buenos Aires (high confidence) (Wong et al., 2013; Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019; Wu et al., 2019; Mettler-Grove, 2020), Rio de Janeiro (high confidence) (Ceccherini et al., 2016; Neiva et al., 2017; Geirinhas et al., 2018; Peres et al., 2018; Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019; Wu et al., 2019; de Farias et al., 2021) and São Paulo (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)