rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
For example, low-income, young, poor and female- headed households face greater livelihood risks from climate hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognising Indigenous Peoples’ rights and supporting Indigenous knowledge-based adaptation are critical to reducing climate change risks and effective adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
There is evidence that present adaptation strategies do not sufficiently include poverty reduction and the underlying social determinants of human vulnerability such as gender, ethnicity and governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Compared to other socioeconomic factors, the influence of climate on conflict is exacerbated by insecure land tenure, weather-sensitive economic activities, weak institutions and fragile governance, poverty and inequality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The literature also suggests a larger climate-related influence on the dynamics of conflict than on the likelihood of initial conflict outbreak (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
More people and key assets are exposed to climate-induced impacts, and loss and damage in cities, set - tlements and key infrastructure since AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level rise, heatwaves, droughts, changes in runoff, floods, wildfires and permafrost thaw cause disruptions of key infra - structure and services such as energy supply and transmission, communications, food and water supply and transport systems in and between urban and peri-urban areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability and exposure has been in cities and settlements where adaptive capacity is limited, including informal settlements in low- and middle-in - come communities and in smaller and medium-sized urban communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability has been in unplanned and informal settlements and in smaller to medium urban centres in low- and middle-income nations where adaptive capacity is limited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since AR5, observed impacts of climate change on cities, peri-urban areas and settlements have extended from direct, climate-driven impacts to compound, cascading and systemic impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The high degree of informality limits adaptation and increases differential vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, exposure to climate-driven impacts such as heatwaves, extreme precipitation and storms in combination with rapid urbanisation and lack of climate-sensitive planning, along with continuing threats from urban heat islands, is increasing the vulnerability of marginalised urban populations and key infrastructure to climate change, for example, more frequent and/ or extreme rainfall and drought stress existing design and capacity of current urban water systems and heighten urban and peri-urban water insecurity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
COVID-19 has had a substantial urban impact and generated new climate-vulnerable populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coastal cities are disproportionately affected by interacting, cascading and climate-compounding climate- and ocean-driven impacts, in part because of the exposure of multiple assets, economic activities and large populations concentrated in narrow coastal zones (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Early impacts of accelerating sea level rise have been detected at sheltered or subsiding coasts, manifesting as nuisance and chronic flooding at high tides, water-table salinisation, ecosystem and agricultural transitions, increased erosion and coastal flood damage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Coastal settlements with high inequality, for example a high proportion of informal settlements, as well as deltaic cities prone to land subsidence (e.g., Bangkok, Jakarta, Lagos, New Orleans, Mississippi, Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas) and small island states are highly vulnerable and have experienced impacts from severe storms and floods in addition to, or in combination with, those from accelerating sea level rise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Currently, coastal cities already dependent on extensive protective works face the prospects of significantly increasing costs to maintain current protection levels, especially if the local sea level rises to the point that financial and technical limits are reached; systemic changes, such as relocation of millions of people, will be necessary (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Vulnerabilities vary by location and are shaped by intersecting processes of marginalization, including gender, class, race, income, ethnic origin, age, level of ability, sexuality and non- conforming gender orientation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Due to the connectivity of infrastructure systems, climate impacts, such as with thawing permafrost or severe storms affecting energy and transport networks, can propagate outside the reach of the hazard footprint and cause larger impacts and widespread regional disruption (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Interdependencies between infrastructure systems have created new pathways for compounding climate risk, which has been accelerated by trends in information and communication technologies, increased reliance on energy, and complex (often global) supply chains (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent extreme weather and climate-induced events have been associated with large costs through damaged property, infrastructure and supply chain disruptions, although development patterns have driven much of these increases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adverse impacts on economic growth have been identified from extreme weather events (high confidence) with large effects in developing countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Widespread climate impacts have undermined economic livelihoods, especially among vulnerable populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate impacts and projected risks have been insufficiently internalised into private- and public-sector planning and budgeting practices and adaptation finance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Greater economic losses are observed for sectors with high direct climate exposure, including regional losses to agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy and tourism (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many industrial and service sectors are indirectly affected through supply disruptions, especially during and following extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Costs are also incurred from adaptation, disaster spending, recovery and rebuilding of infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Estimates of the global effects of climate change on aggregate measures of economic performance and gross domestic product (GDP) range from negative to positive, in part due to uncertainty in how weather variability and climate impacts manifest in GDP (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is estimated to have slowed trends of decreasing economic inequality between developed and developing countries (low confidence), with particularly negative effects for Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, droughts and severe fluvial floods, have reduced economic growth in the short term (high confidence) and will continue to reduce it in the coming decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Patterns of development have augmented the exposure of more assets to extreme hazards, increasing the magnitude of the losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Small Island Developing States have reported economic losses and a wide range of damage from tropical cyclones and increases in sea level rise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-sensitive livelihoods are more concentrated in regions that have higher socioeconomic vulnerabilities and lower adaptive capacities, exacerbating existing inequalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme events have also had more pronounced adverse effects in poorer regions and on more vulnerable populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These greater economic effects have further reduced the ability of these populations to adapt to existing impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Within populations, the poor, women, children, elderly and Indigenous populations have been especially vulnerable due to a combination of factors, including gendered divisions of paid and/ or unpaid labour (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Existing adaptation has prevented greater economic losses (medium confidence), yet adaptation gaps remain due to limited financial resources, including gaps in international adaptation finance and competing priorities in budget allocations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Insufficient consideration of these impacts, however, has placed more assets in areas that are highly exposed to climate hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Threats to species and ecosystems in oceans, coastal regions and on land, particularly in biodiversity hotspots, present a global risk that will increase with every additional tenth of a degree of warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The transformation of terrestrial and ocean/ coastal ecosystems and loss of biodiversity, exacerbated by pollution, habitat fragmentation and land use changes, will threaten livelihoods and food security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks escalate with additional near-term warming in all regions and domains (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Unique and threatened ecosystems are expected to be at high risk in the very near term at 1.2°C global warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Even for less vulnerable species and systems, projected climate change risks surpass hard limits to natural adaptation, increasing species at high risk of population declines (medium confidence) and loss of critical habitats (medium to high confidence) and compromising ecosystem structure, functioning and resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At a global warming of 2°C with associated changes in precipitation global land area burned by wildfire is projected to increase by 35% (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Beginning at 1.5°C warming, natural adaptation faces hard limits, driving high risks of biodiversity decline, mortality, species extinction and loss of related livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 1.6°C (median estimate), >10% of species are projected to become endangered, increasing to >20% at 2.1°C, representing severe biodiversity risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These risks escalate with warming, most rapidly and severely in areas at both extremes of temperature and precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With warming of 3°C, >80% of marine species across large parts of the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean will experience potentially dangerous climate conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Space for nature is shrinking as large areas of forest are lost to deforestation (high confidence), peat draining and agricultural expansion, land reclamation and protection structures in urban and coastal settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Currently less than 15% of the land and 8% of the ocean are under some form of protection, and enforcement of protection is often weak (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future ecosystem vulnerability will strongly depend on developments in society, including demographic and economic change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coordinated and well-monitored habitat restoration, protection and management, combined with consumer pressure and incentives, can reduce non- climatic impacts and increase resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation and mitigation options, such as afforestation, dam construction and coastal infrastructure placements, can increase vulnerability, compete for land and water and generate risks for the integrity and functioning of ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In terrestrial ecosystems, the fertilisation effects of high atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on carbon uptake will be increasingly saturated and limited by warming and drought (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increases in wildfires, tree mortality, insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying and permafrost thaw (high confidence) all exacerbate self-reinforcing feedbacks between emissions from high-carbon ecosystems and warming with the potential to turn many ecosystems that are currently net carbon sinks into sources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In coastal areas beyond 1.5°C warming, blue carbon storage by mangroves, marshes and seagrass habitats are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels and the intensity, duration and extent of marine heatwaves, as well as adaptation options (including coastal development) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changes in ocean stratification are projected to reduce nutrient supply and alter the magnitude and efficiency of the biological carbon pump (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The median values for percentage of species at very high risk of extinction are 9% at 1.5°C, 10% at 2°C, 12% at 3°C, 13% at 4°C and 15% at 5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extinction risks are higher for species in biodiversity hotspots (medium confidence), reaching 24% of species at very high extinction risk above 1.5°C, with yet higher proportions for endemic species of 84% in mountains (medium confidence) and 100% on islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Thousands of individual populations are projected to be locally lost, which will reduce species diversity in some areas where there are no species moving in to replace them, for example, in tropical systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Novel species interactions at the cold edge of species’ distribution may also lead to extirpations and extinctions of newly encountered species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Palaeo records indicate that at extreme warming levels (>5°C), mass extinctions of species occur (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These processes will exacerbate both stress on systems already at risk from climate impacts and non-climate impacts like habitat fragmentation and pollution (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The increasing frequency and severity of extreme events will decrease the recovery time available for ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Irreversible changes will occur from the interaction of stressors and the occurrence of extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Ecosystem integrity is threatened by the positive feedback between direct human impacts (land use change, pollution, overexploitation, fragmentation and destruction) and climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the case of the Amazon forest, this could lead to large-scale ecological transformations and shifts from a closed, wet forest into a drier and lower-biomass vegetation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
If these pressures are not successfully addressed, the combined and interactive effects between climate change, deforestation and forest degradation, and forest fires are projected to lead to a reduction of over 60% of the area covered by forest in response to 2.5°C global warming level (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Some habitat-forming coastal ecosystems, including many coral reefs, kelp forests and seagrass meadows, will undergo irreversible phase shifts due to marine heatwaves with global warming levels >1.5°C and are at high risk this century even in <1.5°C scenarios that include periods of temperature overshoot beyond 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under SSP1–2.6, coral reefs are at risk of widespread decline, loss of structural integrity and transitioning to net erosion by mid-century due to the increasing intensity and frequency of marine heatwaves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In response to heatwaves, bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef is projected to occur annually if warming increases above 2.0°C, resulting in widespread decline and loss of structural integrity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Global warming of 3.0°C–3.5°C increases the likelihood of extreme and lethal heat events in western and northern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Drought risks are projected to increase in many regions over the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Invasive plant species are predicted to expand both in latitude and altitude (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Depending on location and human–wildlife interactions, climate-driven shifts in distributions of wild animals increase the risk of emergence of novel human infectious diseases, as has occurred with SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These control measures will become costlier under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, could reduce projected permafrost CO 2 losses by 2100 by 24.2 GtC (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
For example, by 2100, 18.8% ± 19.0% to 38.9% ± 9.4% of the ocean will very likely undergo a change of more than 20 days (advances and delays) in the start of the phytoplankton growth period under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 respectively (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
This altered timing increases the risk of temporal mismatches between plankton blooms and fish spawning seasons (medium to high confidence) and increases the risk of fish recruitment failure for species with restricted spawning locations, especially in mid- to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere (low confidence) but provide short-term opportunities to countries benefiting from shifting fish stocks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Major risks include loss of coastal ecosystems such as wetlands and marshlands from committed sea level rise associated with overshoot warming (medium confidence), coral reefs and kelps from heat-related mortality and associated ecosystem transitions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With every increment of warming, exposure to climate hazards will grow substantially (high confidence), and adverse impacts on all food sectors will become prevalent, further stressing food security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regional disparity in risks to food security will grow with warming levels, increasing poverty traps, particularly in regions characterised by a high level of human vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Compared to 1.5°C global warming level, 2°C global warming level will even further negatively impact food production where current temperatures are already high as in lower latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased and potentially concurrent climate extremes will increase simultaneous losses in major food-producing regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The adverse effects of climate change on food production will become more severe when global temperatures rise by more than 2°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 3°C or higher global warming levels, exposure to climate hazards will grow substantially (high confidence), further stressing food production, notably in sub-Saharan Africa and South and South East Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Catch composition will change regionally, and the vulnerability of fishers will partially depend on their ability to move, diversify and leverage technology (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Global marine aquaculture will decline under increasing temperature and acidification conditions by 2100, with potential short-term gains for finfish aquaculture in some temperate regions and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture due to habitat reduction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changes in precipitation, sea level rise, temperature and extreme events will negatively affect food provisioning from inland aquatic systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme weather events will increase risks of food insecurity via spikes in food prices, reduced food diversity and reduced income for agricultural and fishery livelihoods (high confidence), preventing achievement of the UN SDG 2 (‘Zero Hunger’) by 2030 in regions with limited adaptive capacities, including Africa, small island states and South Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With about 2°C warming, climate-related changes in food availability and diet quality are estimated to increase nutrition-related diseases and the number of undernourished people by 2050, affecting tens (under low vulnerability and low warming) to hundreds of millions of people (under high vulnerability and high warming, i.e., SSP-3-RCP6.0), particularly among low-income households in low- and middle-income countries in sub- Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 3°C or higher global warming levels, adverse impacts on all food sectors will become prevalent, further stressing food availability (high confidence), agricultural labour productivity and food access (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regional disparity in risks to food security will grow at these higher warming levels, increasing poverty traps, particularly in regions characterised by a high level of human vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased CO 2 concentrations promote crop growth and yield but reduce the density of important nutrients in some crops (high confidence) with projected increases in undernutrition and micronutrient deficiency, particularly in countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency (high confidence) and regions with low access to diverse foods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Marine-dependent communities, including Indigenous Peoples and local peoples, will be at increased risk of malnutrition due to losses of seafood-sourced nutrients (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollination as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness will be disrupted in some regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Greenhouse gas emissions will negatively impact air, soil and water quality, exacerbating direct climatic impacts on yields (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher temperatures and humidity will expand the risk of aflatoxin contamination into higher- latitude regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
More frequent and intense flood events and increased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Aquatic food safety will decrease through increased detrimental impacts from harmful algal blooms (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These negative food safety impacts will be greater without adaptation and fall disproportionately on low-income countries and communities with high consumption of seafood, including coastal Indigenous communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regions and populations with higher exposure and vulnerability are pro- jected to face greater risks than others (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected changes in the water cycle, water quality, cryosphere changes, drought and flood will negatively impact natural and human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
About 800 million to 3 billion people at 2°C and about 4 billion at 4°C warming are projected to experience different levels of water scarcity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 4°C global warming by the end of the century, approximately 10% of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, affecting over 2.1 billion people (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Globally, the greatest risks to attaining global sustainability goals come from risks to water security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw and decline in snow cover are projected to continue beyond the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many low- elevation and small glaciers around the world will lose most of their total mass at 1.5°C warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Glacier lake outburst flood will threaten the security of local and downstream communities in High Mountain Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)