rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
As sea level rises as a result of global climate change, storm surge floods will become more frequent in this densely populated area, particularly in low-lying areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme events, including storm surges and coastal inundation/ flooding, cause injuries and economic/environmental losses on the urbanised coastline of Southern Brazil (States of São Paulo and Santa Catarina) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heat islands affect ecosystems by increasing the energy consumption for cooling, the concentration of pollutants and the incidence of fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming temperatures have been implicated in the emergence of dengue in temperate latitudes, increasing populations of Aedes aegypti (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Cerrado savannahs are projected to be the hotspot most negatively impacted by climate change within SA, mostly though range contraction of plant species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In particular, a significant increment in the duration and frequency of heatwaves mainly in central Chile from 1961 to 2016 has been observed (Piticar, 2018).A robust drying trend for Chile (30°S–48°S) has been recorded (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, inconsistent trends over the region in the magnitude of precipitation extremes with both decreases and increases (Chou et al., 2014; Giorgi et al., 2014; Heidinger et al., 2018; Meseguer-Ruiz et al., 2018) (WGI AR6 Table 11.14) (Seneviratne et al., 2021) have been observed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
From 1946 to 2017, the number of fires and areas burned have increased significantly in Chile (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The glaciers of the southern Andes (including the SWS and SSA regions) show the highest glacier mass loss rates worldwide (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models (Chou et al., 2014) projected warmer conditions (more than 1°C) for the entire sub-region by 2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Drier conditions (medium confidence), by means of a decrease in total annual and extreme precipitation, are expected to increase for southern Chile, but inconsistent changes are expected in the sub-region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Profound social inequalities, urban expansion and inadequate city planning (e.g., drainage network) increase exposure to flooding events and landslides (high confidence) (Müller and Höfer, 2014; Rojas et al., 2017; Lara et al., 2018), heat hazards such as heatwaves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In particular, human communities living in coastal cities show a negative safety perception about the performance of the infrastructure and coastal defences to flood events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Terrestrial ecosystems dominated by exotic species (e.g., pine) with lower landscape heterogeneity and degraded soils and that are close to settlements and roads are highly vulnerable to wildfires in comparison to forests dominated by native trees (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The water sector shows a very high vulnerability (high confidence) (Figure 12.7) mainly due to weak water governance focused on market aspects (e.g., inter-sectoral water transactions, setting rates, granting concessions, waiving the water right) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Potable water and adequate sanitation are available in SWS; however, water availability in Chile is unevenly distributed in rural communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Spatial differences in water availability are enhanced by strong population growth, economic development, mining activities and the high dependence of agriculture on irrigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts in SWS are a major threat to water security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urban and agriculture sectors are vulnerable to climate change (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Figure 12.7), increasing problems and demand for water (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Important health problems (e.g., pathogenic infections, changes in vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, lower neurobehavioural performance) have been associated with agriculture, mining and thermal power production activities in SWS (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Large-scale agricultural growth has increased vulnerability to climate change by disfavouring traditional agriculture, the homogenisation of the biophysical landscape and the replacement of traditional crops and native forests with exotic species like pines and eucalyptus (high confidence) (Torres et al., 2015), where farmers’ perceptions of climate change are highly dependent on educational level and access to meteorological information (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Agricultural systems owned by Indigenous Peoples (i.e., Mapuche, Quechua and Aymara farmers) seem to pose a lower level of vulnerability to drought and higher response capacity than non-Indigenous farmers thanks to the use of the traditional knowledge of specific management techniques and the tendency to conserve species or varieties of crops tolerant to water scarcity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Fishery- and aquaculture- related livelihoods are vulnerable to climate and non-climate drivers (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement), such as sea surface warming and precipitation reduction (Handisyde et al., 2017; Soto et al., 2019; González et al., 2021), changes in upwelling intensity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The Chilean healthcare system has become more equitable and responsive to the population’s needs (e.g., the Bono AUGE healthcare reform programme); however, the high relative inequalities in terms of income (OECD, 2018), education level and rural–urban factors are determinants of quality of care, health system barriers and differential access to healthcare (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Exposure and vulnerability to psychosocial risks in SWS show significant inequalities in times of disasters such as earthquakes according to socioeconomic, geographic and gender factors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous Peoples have the highest levels of vulnerability in Chile in terms of income, basic needs and access to services to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation have increased the impacts of wildfires on terrestrial ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future projections show important changes in the productivity, structure and biogeochemical cycles of SWS temperate and rainforests (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Gutiérrez et al., 2014; Correa-Araneda et al., 2020) and their fauna (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Species are projected to suffer changes in their distribution, including a decrease in climatic refugia for vertebrates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Increasing temperatures have enlarged the number and areal extent of glacier lakes in the central Andes, northern Patagonia and southern Patagonia (high confidence) (Wilson et al., 2018), while decreased rainfall and rapid glacier melting have provoked changes in the environmental, biogeochemical and biological properties of central- southern and Andes Chilean lakes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation regimes and an unprecedented long-term drought have decreased the annual average river streamflows that supply SWS megacities such as Santiago (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Drought has affected wetlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
There is low evidence on shoreline retreat attributed to climate change (Martínez et al., 2018; Ministerio de Medio Ambiente de Chile, 2019), although increasing wind intensity along the central Chilean coast has caused serious damage in coastal infrastructure and buildings (Winckler et al., 2017) and changes in seawater properties and processes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Ocean and coastal ecosystems in SWS are sensitive to upwelling intensity, which affects the abundance, diversity, physiology and survivorship of coastal species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing radiation and temperatures and reduced precipitation, in conjunction with increased nutrient load, have increased HAB events, producing massive fauna mortalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Multiple resources subjected to fisheries and aquaculture are highly vulnerable to storms, alluvial disasters, ocean warming, ocean acidification, increasing ENSO extreme events and lower oxygen availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean and coastal ecosystems, especially EEZs, will be highly impacted by climate change in the near and long term (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation are expected to impact the agriculture sector (i.e., fruits crops and forests) across the entire sub-region, with the largest impacts in the northern and central zone (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed impacts and future projections warn that increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation will largely impact water demand by agricultural sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing temperature and heat extreme events in cities have increased the demand for water, damage to urban infrastructure (Monsalves- Gavilán et al., 2013) and accelerated ageing and death of trees (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
An increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and a decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes are projected to be likely (WGI AR6 Table 11.13, Seneviratne et al., 2021); CMIP6 models project an increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
It is expected that an increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation, droughts and fire weather will intensify through the 21st century in SSA, but mean wind will decrease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The observed area and the elevation changes indicate that the Echaurren Norte glacier may disappear in the coming years if negative mass balance rates prevail (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Thus, if evapotranspiration and drought stress increase as temperature increases and rainfall decreases in water-limited ecosystems, a greater exposure of ranchers to a reduction in stocking rate and, therefore, family income would be expected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Vaca Muerta is the major region in SA, where those techniques are used to extract oil and gas, and this will lead to an exacerbation of current water scarcity issues and to competition with irrigated agriculture (Rosa and D’Odorico, 2019), which in the context of drought may exacerbate socioenvironmental conflicts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Most calving glaciers in the southern Patagonia ice field retreated during the last century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Suitable areas for meadows (very productive areas for livestock production) will decrease by 7.85% by 2050 given predicted changes in climate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The Patagonian Steppe may suffer pronounced expansion in invasive species’ ranges under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
A synthesis of these impacts (Figure 12.10) indicates the following: Climate change has or will have a major impact on the observed and future decline of Andean glaciers and snow (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many aspects and assets of ocean and coastal ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, coral reefs, saltmarshes) were identified as being strongly impacted by climate change, both for observed and future periods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Assessment of key observed and projected impacts and risks shows that in the CSA region several systems are already approaching critical thresholds under current warming levels, in particular glaciers in the Andes, coral reefs in CA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some systems could cross these thresholds with different levels of reversibility depending on the degree of future warming, that is, glaciers in the Andes and coral reefs in CA, which will show partial but irreversible loss already under low levels of warming (RCP2.6) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In particular, the high vulnerability of large populations, infrastructure and service systems, such as health, food and energy production and supply, are important factors, along with high levels of inequality and poor governance, for creating and increasing key risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
IKLK play an important role in adaptation and are vital components of many socioecological systems, while also being threatened by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Investing in actions aimed at protection, restoration and the sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems represents a good approach to maintaining critical ecosystem services and constitutes part of a common strategy for adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction in the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Protected area in CSA are underfunded (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In their NCs, NDCs and/or NAPs, most countries identified inadequate financing and access to technology as barriers to adaptation relevant to terrestrial and freshwater socioecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Poverty is a driver of climate-change risk, while the sustainable use of ecosystems fosters adaptation (Kasecker et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is, therefore, great potential for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem adaptation to climate change in CSA, provided the right incentives and sociocultural protective measures are in place (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nevertheless, research on Latin American forests tend to focus on mitigation, while studies on agriculture are usually oriented towards adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
They increase ecosystems’ adaptive potential, reducing climate risk and delivering numerous ecosystem services and sustainable development benefits while playing an important role in climate-change mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In addition to better managing and expanding protected area networks, other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), recently defined by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (Dudley et al., 2018), could also enhance ecosystem resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Large-scale restoration is also seen as pivotal to limiting both climate change (IPCC, 2019a) and species extinction (IPBES, 2018a) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Projections for CSA ocean and coastal ecosystems warn about significant and negative impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation measures in mangrove ecosystems are mainly focused on the application of EbA strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The use of territorial planning tools, the promotion of sustainable resource exploitation, the adherence to certification schemes and the implementation of management instruments, such as ecosystem-based management (EbM), followed by the use of an integrated coastal zone management, coastal marine spatial planning and capacity building, ecological risk assessments, have been the main strategies used to ensure the sustainability of marine resources in fisheries across EEZs of CSA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, some important advances are visible in Colombian Pacific areas with coral reefs (new conservation plans, research monitoring and conservation practices) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
In Panama, actions taken have allowed the protection of a high number of marine areas with coral reefs, as well as the incorporation of management approaches that include several sectors such as fisheries, tourism, coral protection and coral conservation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
In the case of Costa Rica, 80% of coral habitats are located inside of MPAs, multiple research coral-related activities have been performed, and several training activities have favoured the engagement of the local community in their protection against climate and non-climate hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
In Brazil, between 75–84% of mangroves are under some level of protection which has improved the forest structures, and multiple research programmes (e.g., Mangrove Dynamics and Management, MADAM, and ‘GEF-Mangle’) have been developed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In Colombia, research projects (e.g., Mangroves of Colombia Projects, MCP), the installation of a geographic information system for mangroves (e.g., SIGMA Sistema de Información para la Gestión de los Manglares en Colombia), surveillance monitoring plans (e.g., EGRETTA Herramientas para el Control y Vigilancia de los Manglares), and the establishment of protected areas have contributed to decrease loss of the mangrove forest (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In addition, MPAs in Chile play a key role in climate-change adaptation for fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Uruguay is incorporating stakeholders in its climate- change adaptation strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
However, the amount and type of adaptation goals differ enormously from country to country (Figure 12.12).12.5.2.4 Limits and Barriers to Adaptation in Ocean and Coastal Ecosystems Although current NAPs and many other actions and strategies focus on improving the conservation and restoration of ocean and coastal ecosystems, as well as the suitability of marine resources throughout CSA, these measures are still not able to reduce the vulnerability and sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate-change hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is high confidence that sandy beach ecosystems of CSA countries have suffered significant losses of dunes as a consequence of the construction of infrastructures that have caused interruptions in the natural dynamic of beaches, reducing protection against tides, waves, extreme events or tsunamis (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These include the Dry Corridor in CA, coastal areas of Peru (SWS) and northern Chile (SWS), the Bolivian- Peruvian Altiplano (NWS, SAM), the Dry Andes of Central Chile (SWS), Western Argentina and Chaco in northwestern Paraguay (SES) and Sertão in northeastern Brazil (NES) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In NWS and SWS, downstream areas are increasingly affected by decreasing and unreliable river runoff due to rapid glacier shrinkage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
River fragmentation and corresponding loss of habitat connectivity due to dam constructions have been described for, for example, the NSA, SAM, NES and SES (high confidence) (Grill et al., 2015; Anderson et al., 2018a), with important implications for freshwater biota, such as fish migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, examples in, for instance, NWS (Carey et al., 2012; Duarte-Abadía et al., 2015; Hommes and Boelens, 2018) and SWS (Muñoz et al., 2019b) showcase unresolved water-related conflicts between local villagers, peasant communities, hydropower operators and governmental institutions in a context of distrust and lack of water governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Declining water quality can be observed, for example, due to intense agricultural and industrial activities in SWS, SES and SSA (medium confidence) (Mekonnen et al., 2015; Gomez et al., 2021), mining in Andean headwaters (NWS, SWS and Western SAM) and tropical lowlands (eastern SAM and NSA) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Water scarcity risks are projected to affect a growing number of people in the near and mid-term future in view of growing water demand in most regions (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Veldkamp et al., 2017; Schoolmeester et al., 2018; Viviroli et al., 2020), expected precipitation reductions in western and northern SAM and SWS (medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement) (Neukom et al., 2015; Schoolmeester et al., 2018), substantial vanishing of glacier extent in NWS, SAM and SWS (Table SM12.6; Rabatel et al., 2018; Vuille et al., 2018; Cuesta et al., 2019; Drenkhan et al., 2019) and increasing evaporation rates in CA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, flood risk is a serious concern (Arnell et al., 2016) and expected to increase, especially in NWS, SAM, SES and SWS in the mid- and long-term future (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Central and South America, about 26% (130 million people) of the population have no access to safe drinking water, and strong disparities prevail regarding its spatial distribution; for example, in Chile, 99% of the population have access, compared to 50% in Peru, 73% in Colombia, 52% in Nicaragua or 56% in Guatemala (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The most vulnerable people belong to low- income groups in rural areas and informal settlements of large urban areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The combination of (seasonally) reduced water supply, growing water demand, declining water quality, ecosystem deterioration and habitat loss and low water governance could lead to increasing competition and conflict associated with high economic losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This situation threatens human water security in the long term and poses an increasing risk to adaptation success in CSA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, ‘hard path’ interventions are now strongly contested because negative effects exacerbate local water conflicts (Carey et al., 2012; Boelens et al., 2019; Drenkhan et al., 2019), potentially leading to increasing water demand, vulnerabilities and water shortage risks (Di Baldassarre et al., 2018), thereby limiting adaptive capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In recent years, the inclusion of IKLK in current adaptation baselines has attracted increasing attention, particularly in regions with a high share of Indigenous Peoples (NWS, SAN, SWS, NSA) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, current realities in all regions show major challenges in implementing IWRM mechanisms and policies, related but not limited to political and institutional instabilities, governance structures, fragmented service provision, lack of economies of scale and scope, corruption and social conflicts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many water-related conflicts in CSA are rooted in inequitable water governance that excludes water users from decisions on water allocation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nevertheless, only a few experiences have been evaluated as successful due to insufficient implementation, low decision-making ability of some stakeholder groups and poor evidence-based approaches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These funding deficits set important limitations on future water provision, adaptation to changing water resources and the achievement of the SDGs by 2030 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In many parts of CSA the level of success of adaptation measures depends largely on the governance of projects and stakeholder-based processes and is closely related to their effectiveness, efficiency, social equity and sociopolitical legitimacy (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Several PES experiences across CSA have been described as successful measures for watershed conservation and adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most barriers to advance adaptation in CSA correspond to soft limits associated with missing links of science–society–policy processes, institutional fragilities, pronounced hierarchies, unequal power relations and top-down water governance regimes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The direct social and economic consequences for the sector are evident in CA’s so-called Dry Corridor, with a growing dependence on food imports (Porkka et al., 2013), and these degrees of dependency make the region more vulnerable to price variability, climatic conditions (Bren d’Amour et al., 2016; ECLAC, 2018) and, therefore, to food insecurity in the absence of adaptation actions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Meanwhile, the more temperate part of SA in the south is projected to have agricultural production surpluses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)