rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
In summary, institutional constraints (governance, institutions, policy), including path dependency and financial and information constraints, are the main challenge to adaptation implementation in the water sector (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Water-related losses and damages that manifest despite or beyond implemented adaptation have been observed across world regions, primarily for exposed and vulnerable communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
So, while there is general agreement about negative impacts on GDP due to water-related risks in the future, the magnitude of GDP loss estimates varies substantially and depends on various model assumptions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In summary, climate change impacts on water resources are projected to lower GDP in many low-and middle-income countries without adequate adaptation measures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Still, more work needs to be done on actual benefits and costs of adaptation strategies and residual impacts and risks of delaying adaptation action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In addition, better evidence on the costs and benefits of low-regret solutions, such as water pricing, increasing water use efficiency through technology and service improvements, and enhanced support for autonomous adaptation, is also needed for informed decision-making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Different mitigation pathways can either increase or decrease water withdrawals or water consumption (or both, or either) depending on the specific combination of mitigation technologies deployed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some DAC technologies that include solid sorbents also produce water as a by-product, but not in quantities that can offset total water losses (Beuttler et al., 2019; Fasihi et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Results from a simulation study on retrofitting coal- fired power plants built after 2000 with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies show an increase in global water consumption, currently at 9.66 km3 yr–1, by 31–50% (to 12.66 km3 yr–1 and 14.47 km3 yr–1, respectively) depending on the cooling and CCS technology deployed, and hence are best deployed in locations which are not water scarce (Rosa et al., 2020c) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Carbon can be ‘scrubbed’ from thermoelectric power plant emissions and injected for storage in deep geological strata (Turner et al., 2018), but this can lead to pollution of deep aquifers (Chen et al., 2021) and have health consequences (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Overall, extensive BECCS and afforestation/reforestation deployment can alter the water cycle at regional scales (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many mitigation measures have a considerable water footprint (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The effectiveness of technology in reducing climate-related risks depends on its appropriateness to the local context (Biagini et al., 2014; Mfitumukiza et al., 2020) and other factors, including institutional and governance frameworks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Water-related technologies can also have adverse distributional outcomes when gains from technology adoption accrue disproportionately to a small section of the population; for example, only rich and male farmers can adopt high-cost technologies like solar irrigation pumps (Gupta, 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Such financing focuses on returns and scale (Cholibois, 2020), and as such, local needs, especially those of the poor, may not be adequately represented (Manuamorn et al., 2020; Williams, 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In summary, water garners a significant share of public and private adaptation funds (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The necessity of water collection takes away time from income-generating activities and education (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hence, a lack of gender-sensitive analysis before implementing water management projects can lead to maladaptation and increase gender vulnerability (Phan et al., 2019; Eriksen et al., 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
SRCCL found that IKLK contribute to enhancing resilience against climate change and combating desertification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Community-led actions and restoration measures are helping to ameliorate climate impacts and provide ‘safe havens’ to affected freshwater species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Community-led applications of IKLK in conjunction with external knowledge and funding can improve water security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In summary, IKLK are dynamic and have developed over time to adapt to climate and environmental change in culturally specific and place-based ways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective participation of these actors in climate change adaptation planning in the water sector can contribute to more just adaptation actions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Therefore, the legitimacy of the decisions taken by multiple decision-makers at different levels of water governance derives from the perceived fairness of the decision-making process (Baldwin et al., 2018) and the inclusion of women, Indigenous Peoples and young people (Iza, 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Polycentric governance systems require cross- scale information sharing, coordination and democratic participation to work appropriately (Pahl-Wostl and Knieper, 2014; Carlisle and Gruby, 2017; Morrison et al., 2017; Biesbroek and Lesnikowski, 2018; Frey et al., 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These, in turn, can produce better environmental outcomes and improve water governance outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For instance, historical inequities and injustices due to settler colonialism and top-down water policies, governance and laws (Collins et al., 2017; Arsenault et al., 2018; Johnson et al., 2018; Robison et al., 2018) have resulted in long-term water insecurity in many indigenous communities in North America (Simms et al., 2016; Medeiros et al., 2017; Conroy-Ben and Richard, 2018; Diver, 2018; Emanuel, 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In summary, polycentric governance can enable improved water governance and effective climate change adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, it can also exacerbate existing inequalities as long as less powerful actors, such as women, Indigenous Peoples and young people, are not adequately involved in the decision-making process (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence suggests that adaptation failure in the water sector is due to policy and regulatory failures (Keohane and Victor, 2016; Oberlack and Eisenack, 2018; Javeline et al., 2019), reflecting political myopia (Muller, 2018; Empinotti et al., 2019; Pralle, 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
International donors and supranational/transnational legislation (e.g., EU law) can support the capacity of national and sub-national governments to act and remove possible barriers to the effective implementation of climate change adaptation policies in the water sector, including obstacles posed due to lack of financial support for the developing countries (Massey et al., 2014; Tilleard and Ford, 2016; Biesbroek et al., 2018; Rahman and Tosun, 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Human-induced warming has slowed growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years in mid and low latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At higher latitudes, warming has expanded potential area but has also altered phenology (high confidence), potentially causing plant–pollinator and pest mismatches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At low latitude, temperatures have crossed upper tolerance thresholds, more frequently leading to heat stress (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts, floods and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food security, nutrition and livelihoods of millions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts induced by the 2015–2016 El Niño, partially attributable to human influences (medium confidence), caused acute food insecurity in various regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the dry corridor of Central America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the northeast Pacific, a recent 5-year warm period impacted the migration, distribution and abundance of key fish resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing competition for land, energy and water exacerbates impacts of climate change on food security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Current global crop and livestock areas will increasingly become climatically unsuitable under a high- emission scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased, potentially concurrent climate extremes will periodically increase simultaneous losses in major food-producing regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change will increase the number of people at risk of hunger in mid-century, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased CO 2 concentrations will reduce nutrient density of some crops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The number of days with climatically stressful conditions for outdoor workers will increase by up to 250 workdays per year by century’s end in some parts of South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central and South America under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5, with negative consequences such as reduced food productivity, higher costs and prices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Meat and milk productivity will be reduced (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Greenhouse-gas emissions will negatively impact air, soil and water quality, exacerbating direct climatic impacts on yields (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will reduce marine fisheries and aquaculture productivity, altering the species that will be fished or cultured, and reducing aquaculture habitat in tropical and subtropical areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Global ocean animal biomass will decrease by 5–17% under RCP2.6 and 8.5, respectively, from 1970 to 2100 with an average decline of 5% for every 1°C of warming, affecting food provisioning, revenue value and distribution (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Global marine aquaculture will decline under warming and acidification from 2020 to 2100, with potential short-term gains for temperate finfish and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture from habitat reduction (50–100% for some countries in the Northern Hemisphere) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changes in precipitation, sea level, temperature and extreme climate events will affect food provisioning from inland and coastal aquatic systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level rise and altered precipitation will increase coastal inundation and water conflicts between water-dependent sectors, such as rice production, direct human use and hydropower (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In temperate and boreal regions, some productivity gains are projected, but tree mortality will increase in some areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In tropical forests, change in species composition and forest structure will lower production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Some models project a possible increase in global wood supply and lowering of average wood prices, but they do not account for the negative impacts of extreme events and thus possibly overestimate the wood supply (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Higher temperatures and humidity will favour toxigenic fungi, plant and animal-based pathogens, and harmful algal blooms (HABs) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
More frequent and intense flood events and in- creased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Incidence and severity of HABs and water-borne diseases will increase, as will indirect effects from infrastructure damage during extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Autonomous responses include livestock and farm management, switching varieties/species and altered timing of key farm activities such as planting or stocking (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, because of limited adaptive capacities and non-climatic compounding drivers of food insecurity, SDG2 will not be met (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ecosystem-based approaches support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes (high confidence), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A sustainable bioeconomy relying on bioresources will need to be supported by technology innovation and international cooperation and governance of global trade to disincentivise environmental and social externalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Other options include shared quotas and access rights considering trade-offs, shifting livelihoods to follow target species, new markets for emerging species, and technology {Cross Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, 5.8.4, 5.14.3.4} Implemented adaptation in crop production will be insufficient to offset the negative effects of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Currently available management options have the potential to compensate global crop production losses due to climate change up to ~2°C warming, but the negative impacts even with adaptation will grow substantially from the mid-century under high temperature change scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regionally, the negative effects will prevail sooner where current temperatures are already higher as in lower latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Policies that support system transitions include shifting subsidies, removing perverse incentives, regulation and certification, green public procurement, investment in sustainable value chains, support for capacity-building, access to insurance premiums, payments for ecosystem services, and social protection, among others (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation strategies that address power inequities lead to co-benefits in equity outcomes and resilience for vulnerable groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge facilitate adaptation strategies for ecosystem provisioning, especially when combined with scientific knowledge using participatory and community-based approaches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Lacking sufficient stakeholder participation, large-scale land acquisitions have had mostly negative implications for vulnerable groups and climate change adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Policy and programme appraisal of adaptation options that consider the risks of adverse effects across different groups at different scales and use inclusive rights-based approaches help avoid maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Successful forest adaptation involves recognition of land rights and cooperation with Indigenous Peoples and other local communities who depend on forest resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Public-sector investment in adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries has grown four-fold since 2010, but adaptation costs will be much higher to meet future adaptation needs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Expanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks will enable and incentivise climate change adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Robust analyses are needed that detail plausible path- ways to move towards more resilient, equitable and sustainable food systems in ways that are socially, economically and environmentally acceptable through time (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Appropriate monitoring and rapid feedback to food system actors will be critical to the success of many current and future adaptation actions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change impacts on fisheries will be particularly high in tropical regions, where reductions in catch are expected to be among the largest globally, leading to negative economic and social effects for fishing communities and with implications for the supply of fish and shellfish (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has caused regionally different, but mostly negative, impacts on crop yields and quality and marketability of products (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Methane emissions significantly impact crop yields by increasing temperatures as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and surface ozone concentrations as a precursor (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Although these estimates were not linked with historical yield changes, more than half of the estimated yield loss is attributable to increasing temperature and ozone concentrations from methane emissions, suggesting the importance of methane mitigation in alleviating yield losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change is already affecting livestock production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In aquatic systems, more evidence has accumulated since AR5 on warming-induced shifts (mainly poleward) of species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The effects of climate change on aquaculture are apparent but diverse, depending on the types and species of aquaculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will increase malnourished populations through direct impacts on food production and have cascading impacts on food prices and household incomes, all of which will reduce access to safe and nutritious food (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme climate events will become more frequent and force some of the current food production areas beyond the safe climatic space for production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The safety challenges arise from contamination caused by increased prevalence of pathogens, HAB and toxic inorganic bioaccumulation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent warming trends have generally shortened the life cycle of major crops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Conversely, in mid-to-low latitudes in Asia, a review study found that farmers favoured early maturing cultivars to reduce risks of damages due to drought, flood and/or heat (Shaffril et al., 2018), suggesting that region-specific adaptations are already occurring in different parts of the world (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Plant breeding, fertilisation, irrigation and integrated pest management have been the major drivers, but many studies have found significant impacts from recent climate trends on crop yield (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nevertheless, yield variability in less productive regions has severe impacts on local food availability and livelihood (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Different pest species populations respond differently to ongoing climate change, with some shifting, contracting or expanding their current distribution range and others persisting or disappearing in their current range (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations greatly influence global yield of major crops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some studies showed that crop yields in different regions covaried with SST oscillations, suggesting occurrences of tele-connected yield failures (crop losses caused by related factors in distant regions; Table Box 5.1.1) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Surface ozone concentration has increased substantially since the late 19th century (Cooper et al., 2014; Forster et al., 2021; Gulev et al., 2021; Szopa et al., 2021) and in some locations and times reaches levels that harm plants, animals and human (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Social inequity How social inequity increases vulnerability to climate change in cropping systems Gender inequity can create and worsen social vulnerability to climate change impacts within cropping systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, smallholder food producers are more vulnerable than large-scale producers to climate change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Farmworkers are another social group with heightened vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Recent FACE studies found that the effects of elevated CO 2 are greater under water-limited conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There are significant interactions between CO 2, temperature, cultivars, nitrogen and phosphorous nutrients (Kimball, 2016; Toreti et al., 2020): positive effects of rising CO 2 on yield are significantly reduced by higher temperatures for soybean, wheat and rice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Elevated CO 2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, zinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending on crop species and cultivars (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Elevated CO2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, zinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending on crop species and cultivars (Mattos et al., 2014; Myers et al., 2014; Dong et al., 2018; Scheelbeek et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2018a; Jin et al., 2019; Ujiie et al., 2019). TThis is of particular relevance for fruit and vegetable crops given their importance in human nutrition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Additional research confirms that climate change will disproportionately affect crop yields among regions, with more negative than positive effects being expected in most areas, especially in currently warm regions, including Africa and Central and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent warming trends have advanced flowering, maturity and harvest (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Developmental phases are projected to proceed faster in response to warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In regions where low temperature is a limiting factor, warming will enable growers to grow a wider range of varieties and obtain better-quality wines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Subtropical and Mediterranean regions will experience major declines in fruit quality for high-quality wines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Box 5.3: Pollinators Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increase in soil temperature will negatively impact SOC, but primarily in higher latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Soil C sequestration is an important strategy to improve crop and livestock production sustainably that could be applied at large scales and at a low cost, if there was adequate institutional support and labour, using agroforestry, conservation agriculture, mixed cropping and targeted application of fertilizer and compost (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on CES (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There are still large uncertainties in the crop model projections (Müller et al., 2021a), but these multiple lines of evidence suggest that warming beyond +2°C (projected to be reached by mid-century under high-emission scenarios) will substantially increase the cost of adaptation and the residual damage to major crops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Plant breeding biotechnology will contribute to adaptation for large-scale producers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Genome sequencing significantly increases the rate and accuracy for identifying genes of agronomic traits that are relevant to climate change, including adaptation to stress from pests and disease, temperature and water extremes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Other breeding approaches assisted by genomics have been making steady gains in introducing traits that adapt crops to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)