rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in Southern Australia (high confidence in south-west Western Australia), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and in the north and east of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Hydrological droughts are projected to increase in Southern Australia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, mean wind patterns are projected to become more north-easterly in summer, and westerlies to become more intense in winter (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
CMIP5 projections of severe winds indicate a general increase in north-eastern Australia, and decreases in some parts in Southern and Central Australia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Due to the intensification and the shift of the austral storm track by the end of the century (Yin, 2005), increases in extreme wind speed in New Zealand are projected over the South Island and the southern part of the North Island by mid- and end-century for all RCPs (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Tropical cyclone: In Australia, the number of TCs has generally declined since 1982, and the frequency of intense TCs that make landfall in north-eastern Australia has declined significantly since the 19th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
While projections suggest a decrease in severe winds in Central and Southern Australia, changes in vegetation due to increased aridity and hydrological drought could be expected to result in increased wind erosion and dust emission across the country (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Tropical cyclones in north-eastern and North Australia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) while their intensity is projected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Projections for Southern Australia and New Zealand show a continuing reduction in snowfall during the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Glacier: Glacier mass and areal extent in New Zealand is projected to continue to decease over the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In summary, snowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, glacier ice mass and extent are expected to decrease over the 21st century for all scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections indicate that a majority of sandy coasts in the region will experience shoreline retreat, throughout the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Relative sea level rise is virtually certain to continue in the oceans around Australasia, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
IPCC AR5 projections (IPCC, 2014b) pointed to increases in mean temperature between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the century (high confidence) and increases in the occurrence of warm days and nights under various future climate scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The AR5 also pointed to patterns of changes in precipitation (medium confidence), changes in the duration of dry spells (medium confidence) and decreases in water supply (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Climate change projections point to major increases in several heat indices across the region for all scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Cold spells and frost days will have a decreasing trend (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections indicate a drying signal for SCA (medium confidence) (Coppola et al., 2014a; Nakaegawa et al., 2014), NES and SWS (high confidence) (Atlas.7.2.5) and the well-known dipole for South America, meaning increasing precipitation over subtropical regions like the Río de La Plata basin (SES) (high confidence) and decreasing precipitation in the Amazon (NSA) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Available projections for the region show increases in river floods in SES and SAM (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Heavy precipitation and pluvial flood: Table 11.14 indicated that there is low confidence due to limited evidence of extreme precipitation trends in almost all Central and South America, except in SES where increases in the magnitude and frequency of heavy precipitation have been observed (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In NWS, a wide range of changes is projected (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Sections 8.3.2.4 and 8.4.1.6 point to two important drying hotspots in South America with long-term soil moisture decline and precipitation declines: the Amazon basin (SAM and NSA) and SWS (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Regional projections for Central and South America also indicate an increase in dryness in SCA and NES by mid- to end-century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Agricultural and ecological drought: Section 11.9 assessed low confidence in observed changes in agricultural and ecological drought across Central and South America due to regional heterogeneity and differences depending on the drought metrics used, except in NES, which has seen a dominant increase in drought severity (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projections indicate that the Amazon will be one of the regions in the world with the highest increase in fire weather indices over the 21st century and under all RCPs (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections of fire weather indices also show an increased risk in SWS (high confidence), SSA and SCA (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Mean precipitation is projected to change in a dipole pattern with increases in NWS and SES and decreases in NES and SWS (high confidence) with further decreases in NSA and SCA (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The strongest signal of future increase in agricultural and ecological drought, aridity and fire weather is over the Amazon region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Global climate models project an increase in wind speeds, under all future scenarios, augmenting wind power potential in most parts of Central and South America, especially in NES, where changes lie in the range 0–20% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and 0–40% under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Tropical cyclone: CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, including the new High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America for the mid-century or under a 2°C GWL, accompanied with an increased frequency of intense cyclones (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Climate projections indicate a decrease in frequency of tropical cyclones in Central America accompanied with an increased frequency of intense cyclones, and an increase in mean wind speed and wind power potential in most parts of Central and South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projections (based on process understanding) in Section 9.5.3.3 point to decreases in seasonal snow cover extent and duration across South America as global climate continues to warm (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Glaciers across South America are expected to continue to lose mass and glacier area in the coming century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In conclusion, glacier volume loss and permafrost thawing will continue in the Andes Cordillera under all climate scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
ETWL magnitude and occurrence frequency are expected to increase throughout the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Projections indicate that a majority of sandy coasts in the region will experience shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In summary, relative sea level rise is extremely likely to continue in the oceans around Central and South America, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Future warming leads to the exceedance of different temperature thresholds relevant for vector-borne diseases (medium confidence) (Caminade et al., 2012; Medlock et al., 2013), invasive allergens (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Future warming is also projected to lead to the exceedance of cooling degree day index (>22°C) thresholds, characterizing a potential increase in energy demand for cooling in southern Europe with increases likely exceeding 40% in some areas (Spinoni et al., 2015) by 2050 under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme heat will exceed critical thresholds for health, agriculture and other sectors more frequently (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Chapter 11 assesses that agricultural and ecological droughts will increase in the Mediterranean regions (high confidence) and Western and Central Europe (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather conditions have been increasing since about 1980 over a few regions in Europe including Mediterranean areas (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
An increase in fire weather is projected for most of Europe, especially western, eastern and central regions, by 2080 (current 100-year events will occur every 5–50 years), with a progressive increase in confidence and model agreement along the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
With increased drying and heat combined, in Mediterranean areas, an increase in fire weather indices is projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, or SRES A1B, as early as by mid-century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The declining trend has induced a corresponding decline in wind power potential indices across Europe (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Due to changes in mean surface wind speed patterns (C. Li et al., 2018) and the poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet stream exit, mean surface wind speeds are projected to decrease in the Mediterranean areas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by the middle of the century and beyond, or for GWLs of 2°C and higher (high confidence), with a subsequent decrease in wind power potential (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
However, sub-regional patterns of change are shown in regional climate models, such as an increase in wind speeds in the Aegean Sea and in the northern Adriatic Sea, where a reduction of Bora events and an increase of Scirocco events are projected for mid-century and beyond under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Daily and interannual wind variability is projected to increase under RCP8.5 only in Northern Europe (low confidence) (Moemken et al., 2018), which can influence electrical grid management and wind energy production (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Wind stagnation events may become more frequent in future climate scenarios in some areas of Europe in the second half of the 21st century (Horton et al., 2014; Vautard et al., 2018), with potential consequences on air quality (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Strong winds and extratropical storms are projected to have a slightly increasing frequency and amplitude in the future in northern, western and Central Europe (Outten and Esau, 2013; Feser et al., 2015; Forzieri et al., 2016; Mölter et al., 2016; Ruosteenoja et al., 2019a; Vautard et al., 2019) under RCP8.5 and SRES A1B by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The frequency of storms, including Medicanes, is projected to decrease in Mediterranean regions, and their intensities are projected to increase, by the middle of the century and beyond for SRES A1B, A2 and RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The frequency of Medicanes is projected to decrease (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Proxies of intense convection indicate that the large-scale conditions conducive to severe convection will tend to increase in the future climate (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
The change in snowpack in the Alps is expected to lead to a possible reduction in overall avalanche activity by end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Heavy snowfalls have decreased in frequency in the past decades and this is expected to continue in the future climate (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Freezing rain is projected to increase in western, central and southern Europe by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
In summary, future snow cover extent and seasonal duration will reduce (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
A reduction of glacier ice volume is projected in the European Alps and Scandinavia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Most of the Northern Europe periglacial will disappear by the end of the century even for a lower emissions scenario (medium confidence) and the debris-flow season may last longer in a warming climate (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projections indicate that sandy coasts throughout the continent (except those bordering the northern Baltic Sea) will experience shoreline retreat through the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Relative sea level rise is extremely likely to continue around Europe (except in the northern Baltic Sea), contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Warmer temperatures reduce heating degree days and increase cooling degree days (high confidence) (Bartos et al., 2016; US EPA, 2016; Craig et al., 2018; X. Zhang et al., 2019; Coppola et al., 2021b) Extreme heat: Section 11.9 assessed that extreme temperatures in North America have increased in recent decades (medium evidence , medium agreement) other than in Central and Eastern North America (low confidence), and extreme heat in all regions is projected to increase with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Cold spells are projected to decrease over North America under climate change, with the largest decreases most common in the winter season (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Frost: An expansion of the frost-free season is underway and projections for North America indicate a continuation of this trend in the future (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Frosts are projected to persist as an episodic hazard in many regions given natural variability and cold air outbreaks even as mean temperature rises (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Section 11.4 found that high precipitation is projected to increase across North America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Landslide frequency has increased in British Columbia (Canada; Geertsema et al., 2006) and is expected to increase in North-Western North America given the combination of these factors (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather: Climatic conditions conducive to wildfire have increased in Mexico, Western and North-Western North America, primarily due to warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Climate change drives future increases in North American fire weather, particularly in the south-west (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The mean wind speeds decline in North America – as in other Northern Hemisphere areas – over the past four decades has reversed in the last decade (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Mean wind speeds are expected to decline over much of North America (Figure 12.4m–o), but the only broad signal of consistent change across model types is a reduction in wind speed in Western North America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Tropical cyclones, severe wind and dust storms in North America are shifting towards more extreme characteristics, with a stronger signal towards heightened intensity than increased frequency, although specific regional patterns are more uncertain (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Mean wind speed and wind power potential are projected to decrease in Western North America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Climate change is expected to reduce the total snow amount and the length of the snow cover season over most of North America, with a corresponding decrease in the proportion of total precipitation falling as snow and a reduction in end-of-season snowpack (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Glacier: Section 9.5.1 assessed that glaciers in Alaska, western Canada and the western USA are expected to continue to lose mass and areal extent (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Continued shrinkage of glaciers is projected to create further glacial lakes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Permafrost: Warmer ground temperatures are expected to extend the geographical extent and depth of permafrost thaw across northern North America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
Lake, river and sea ice: Anthropogenic warming reduces the seasonal extent of lake and river ice over many North American freshwater systems, with ice-free winter conditions pushing further north with rising temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Observations and projections agree that snow and ice CIDs over North America are characterized by reduction in glaciers and the seasonality of snow and ice formation, loss of shallow permafrost, and shifts in the rain/snow transition line that alters the seasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions in the coming decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
Projections indicate that sandy coasts in most of the region will experience shoreline retreat through the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
An observed increase in relative sea level rise is virtually certain to continue in North America (other than around the Hudson Bay and southern Alaska) contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Marine heatwaves are also expected to increase all around the region over the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme heat: Observational records indicate warming trends in the temperature extremes since the 1950s in CAR and the Pacific small islands (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
A detectable anthropogenic increase in summer heat stress has been identified over a number of island regions in CAR, western tropical Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean, based on wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index trends for 1973–2012 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Although there are spatial variations, annual rainfall trends in the western Indian Ocean are mostly decreasing, with generally non-significant trends in the western tropical Pacific since the 1950s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Significant drying trends are noted in the southern Pacific subtropics and south-western French Polynesia during the 1951–2015 period (McGree et al., 2019), and in some areas of Hawaii during the 1920–2012 period (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Atlas.10.4 projects precipitation reduction over the Caribbean (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Heavy precipitation and pluvial flood: Heavy precipitation days in CAR have increased in magnitude, and have been more frequent in the northern part during the latter part of the 20th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
The direction of change in extreme precipitation varies across the Pacific and depends on the season (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
From 1950 to 2016, a heterogeneous but prevalent drying trend is found in CAR (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Increased aridity is projected for the majority of the small islands, such as in CAR, southern Pacific and western Indian Ocean, by 2041–2059 relative to 1981–1999 under RCP8.5 or at 1.5°C and 2°C GWLs, which will further intensify by 2081–2099 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Agricultural and ecological droughts are projected to increase in frequency, duration, magnitude, and extent in small islands, such as in CAR (medium confidence) and parts of the Pacific (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Higher evapotranspiration under a warming climate are projected to partially offset future increases or amplify future reductions in rainfall, resulting in drier conditions and increased water stress in the small islands (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projections estimate up to 0.4 m s–1 (8%) increase in annual winds in CAR under RCP8.5, which is associated with changes in the extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High that enhances the Caribbean low-level jet during the wet season, and stronger local easterlies due to enhanced land–ocean temperature differences in the dry season (Costoya et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Other, less data-sensitive tropical cyclone features, such as the poleward migration of where tropical cyclones reach peak intensity in the western North Pacific since the 1940s (medium confidence) and the slowdown in tropical cyclone translational speed over contiguous USA since 1900 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projections of global changes in tropical cyclones indicate more frequent Category 4–5 storms (high confidence) and increased rain rates (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over CAR, tropical cyclone intensity is expected to increase by the end of the century under RCP8.5 due to higher sea surface temperatures but can be inhibited by increases in vertical wind shear in the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Given projected reductions to the overall number of tropical cyclones but increases in storm intensity, total rainfall and storm surge potential, we assess medium confidence of overall changes to tropical cyclones affecting the Caribbean and Pacific small islands.Projections indicate that small islands will generally face fewer but more intense tropical cyclones (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
As relative sea levels increase, the potential for coastal flooding increases in the small islands (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Coastal erosion: Recent studies have indicated variable and dynamic changes in shorelines of reef islands (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Projections indicate that shoreline retreat will occur over most of the small islands in the Pacific and CAR throughout the 21st century with spatial variability (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels is projected to increase SST, resulting in the exceedance of numerous hazard thresholds for pathogens, seagrasses, mangroves, kelp forests, rocky shores, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
It is virtually certain that upper- ocean stratification has increased at a rate of 4.9 ± 1.5% during 1970–2018 and that this will continue to increase in the 21st century (Section 9.2.1.3), potentially leading to reduced nutrient supply and total productivity (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Marine heatwave: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased in frequency over the 20th century, with an approximate doubling since the 1980s (high confidence), and their intensity and duration have also increased (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Ocean acidity: With the increasing CO 2 concentration, the global mean ocean surface pH is decreasing and is now the lowest it has been for at least a thousand years (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
Declining ocean pH will exacerbate negative impacts on marine species (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In recent decades, low-oxygen zones in ocean ecosystems have expanded, and projections indicate an acceleration with global warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
It is virtually certain that global mean SST will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, resulting in the exceedance of numerous climatic impact-driver thresholds relevant to marine ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Future projections also indicate freshening of the Pacific, Southern and Indian oceans and a saltier Atlantic Ocean (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Higher Arctic precipitable water totals are also connected with observed increases in heavy precipitation and convective activity (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Aridity and drought: Recent decades have seen a general decrease in Arctic aridity, with projections indicating a continuing trend towards reduced aridity (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Trends towards more frequent fires in tundra regions are expected to continue, driven in particular by increasing potential evapotranspiration and changes in vegetation (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In the Arctic, mid-winter snowpack increases in some of the coldest and high- elevation locations given higher precipitation totals (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Higher temperatures result in a higher percentage of Arctic precipitation falling as rain (particularly in autumn and spring) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)