rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Despite their relevance, RCM simulations at very high resolution (less than 10 km) are still few in South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Precipitation simulations based on ESD models are able to reproduce mean precipitation over tropical and subtropical South American regions, especially over maximum precipitation areas in western Colombia, south-eastern Peru, central Bolivia, Chile and the La Plata basin (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Overall, climate modelling has made some progress in the past decade but there is no model that performs well in simulating all aspects of the present climate over South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Finally, observational reference datasets, such as reanalysis products, used in the calibration and validation of climate models can also be quite uncertain and may explain part of the apparent biases present in climate models (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The largest warmings over the South American continent are projected for the Amazon basin (SAM and NSA) and the central Andes range (southern SAM, northern SWS and south-eastern NWS; Figure Atlas.22), especially during the dry and dry-to-wet transition seasons (austral winter and spring) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Under high RCPs, the CMIP5 ensemble projects that all Brazilian regions will experience more rainfall variability in the future, so drier dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales, despite the future changes in mean rainfall being currently uncertain (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Long-term observed precipitation trends show an increase over South-Eastern South America and decreases in most tropical land regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
On the other hand, there is still a lack of high-quality and high- resolution observational data that may explain part of the important biases present in climate models (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Climate model projections show a general increase in annual mean surface temperature over the coming century for all emissions scenarios (RCPs and SSPs) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
For a 2°C global warming level, an increase in runoff is projected for north-eastern Europe while decreases are projected in the Mediterranean region, where runoff differences between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming will be most prominent (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
According to SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b) the RCP8.5 projections lead to a loss of more than 80% of the ice mass from small glaciers by the end of century in Central Europe (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In the European Mediterranean, observed land precipitation trends show pronounced variability within the region, with magnitude and sign of trend in the past century depending on time period and exact study region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Regional warming is virtually certain to extend the observed downward trends in snow accumulation, snow water equivalent and length of the snow cover season in NEU and at low altitudes in mountainous areas in the Alps and Pyrenees (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
The representation of mean European climate features by GCMs and RCMs is improved compared to previous IPCC assessments (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The added value of regional downscaling of GCMs by RCM projections for summer mean temperature, precipitation and shortwave radiation is constrained by the representation of processes that lead to a systematic difference between RCM and driving GCM, such as aerosol forcing (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In the European Mediterranean trends in annual mean precipitation contain substantial spatial and temporal variability (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
At high latitudes and low-altitude mountain areas in Europe strong declines in snow accumulation are virtually certain to occur with further increasing regional temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
Atlas.9.1.2 Findings From Previous IPCC Assessments The IPCC AR5 (Bindoff et al., 2013; Hartmann et al., 2013) found that the climate of North America has changed due to anthropogenic causes (high confidence), in particular with primarily increasing annual precipitation and annual temperature (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
There is a detectable anthropogenic influence (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Compared to temperature, trends in annual precipitation over 1961–2015 are generally non-significant though there are consistent positive trends over parts of ENA and CNA (Figure Atlas.11 and Daymet, Interactive Atlas) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
There is evidence of a recent decline in the overall North American annual maximum snow mass, with a trend for non-alpine regions above 40°N during 1980–2018 estimated from the bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 data (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
However, reported snow-decline trends are statistically significant only for a fraction of the concerned areas or locations (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
The northern regions and ENA all show steady increases with the global warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
In summary, NEN, NWN and most of ENA will very likely experience increased annual mean precipitation, with greater increases at higher levels of warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
Projected changes in summer are highly uncertain throughout other regions apart from the far northern parts of NEN and NWN which will likely experience increases (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
These investigations demonstrate the potential of very-high-resolution simulations to add important dimensions to our understanding of regional climate change, though not necessarily to reduce uncertainty (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Across near-Arctic latitudes of North America, increases are exceptionally pronounced, greater than 0.5°C per decade (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
There is very high confidence that global mean sea level rise has accelerated in recent decades which, combined with increases in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall and increases in extreme waves, has exacerbated extreme sea level events and coastal hazards (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
It is virtually certain that during the 21st century, the ocean will transition to unprecedented conditions with further warming and acidification virtually certain, increased upper ocean stratification very likely and continued oxygen decline (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Global mean sea level will continue to rise and there is high confidence that the consequent increases in extreme levels will result in local sea levels in most locations that historically occurred once per century occurring at least annually by the end of the century under all RCP scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Recent analysis of station data showed spatial variations in the mostly decreasing but non-significant trends in annual and extreme rainfall over the western Pacific from 1961 to 2011 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
In summary, the ability of climate models to simulate the climate over the region has improved in many key respects with the application of increased model resolution and a better representation of the land surface processes of particular importance in these advances (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Regional climate models (RCMs) simulate realistically seasonal surface temperature and precipitation patterns including the bimodal rainfall in the precipitation annual cycle although with some timing biases in some regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The important regional circulation and precipitation features, the Caribbean low-level jet and the midsummer drought (MSD), are well represented over a variety of RCM domains covering the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
There are fewer significant trends in precipitation in these regions though several locations in the Caribbean have detectable decreasing trends (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
These modes show no sustained trend since the late 19th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The SROCC (IPCC, 2019a) finds very high confidence that global mean sea level rise has accelerated in recent decades which has exacerbated extreme sea level events and flooding (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
It will continue to rise with consequent increases in extreme levels so that the historical one-in-a-century extreme local sea level will become an annual event by the end of the century under all RCP scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Some general observed climate trends include higher magnitude and frequency of temperatures including warm extremes (high confidence) (Section 12.4.7.1, Table 11.13 and Atlas.10.2), declines in high-intensity rainfall events (low to medium confidenc e) (Table 11.14), regional sea level rises with strong storm surges and waves resulting in increased coastal flood intensity (high confidence) (Section 12.4.7.4 and Atlas.10.2), and increased intensity and intensification rates of tropical cyclones at global scale (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
No significant long-term trends are observed for annual Caribbean rainfall over the 20th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Over the western Pacific, generally decreasing but non-significant trends are noted in annual total rainfall from 1961 to 2011 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
Information on future climate changes Small Islands will very likely continue to warm this century, though at a rate less than the global average (Figure Atlas.28), with consequent increased frequency of warm extremes for the Caribbean and western Pacific islands, and heatwave events for the Caribbean (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Annual and JJA rainfall declines are likely for some Indian and southern Pacific ocean regions with drying over southern French Polynesia (attributed partially to greenhouse gas increases) and farther east clearly evident in CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
This JJA drying has been linked to a future strengthening of the Caribbean low level jet (CLLJ) (Taylor et al., 2013a), a westward expansion and intensification of the NASH, stronger low-level easterlies over the region, a southwardly-placed eastern Pacific ITCZ (Rauscher et al., 2008), and changing dynamics due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
In the AP, concomitant increase in temperature and foehn winds due to positive SAM caused increased surface melting over the Larsen ice shelves (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Strong warming between the mid-1950s and the late 1990s led to the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002, which had been intact for 11,000 years (medium confidence).Snowfall increased over the Antarctic Ice Sheet over AP and WAN, offsetting some of the 20th-century sea level rise (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Longer records suggest either a decrease in snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last 1000 years or a statistically negligible change over the last 800 years (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
There is medium agreement but limited evidence of an anthropogenic forcing effect on Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
The century-scale warming trend in the AP is very likely an emerging signal compared to natural variability, while the WAN warming trend falls in the high end of century-scale trends over the last 2000 years (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The SMB of EAN increased during the 20th century which mitigated global mean sea level rise by 0.77 ± 0.40 mm per decade during 1901–2000 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
More evidence has emerged showing the importance of the Pacific–South American pattern, ENSO and Pacific Ocean convection, and large-scale blocking causing warm-air intrusions and both extreme precipitation and melt events, responsible for large interannual SMB variability (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Significant warming trends are observed in other West Antarctic regions and at selected stations in East Antarctica (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Antarctic precipitation and SMB showed a significant positive trend over the 20th century according to the ice cores, while large interannual variability masks any existing trend over the satellite period since the end of the 1970s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Under all assessed emissions scenarios, both West and East Antarctica are very likely to have higher annual mean surface air temperatures and more precipitation, which will have a dominant influence on determining future changes in the SMB (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Arctic surface air temperatures have increased from the mid-1950s, with feedbacks from loss of sea ice and snow cover contributing to the amplified warming (high confidence) (IPCC, 2018c), and have likely increased by more than double the global average over the last two decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Arctic snow cover in June has declined from 1967 to 2018 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Arctic glaciers are losing mass (very high confidence) and this along with changes in high-mountain snowmelt have caused changes in hydrology, including river runoff, that are projected to continue in the near term (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The rate of ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased; during 2006–2015 the loss was 278 ± 11 Gt yr–1 with the rate for 2012–2016 higher than for 2002–2011 and several times higher than during 1992–2001 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The Arctic sea ice area is declining in all months of the year (very high confidence) with the September sea ice minimum very likely having reduced by 12.8 ± 2.3% per decade during the satellite era (1979–2018) to levels unprecedented for at least 1000 years (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
No further losses are projected under RCP2.6 whereas a further 15–25% reduction in snow cover duration is projected by the end of century under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
AMAP reported Arctic precipitation increases of 1.5–2.0% per decade, with the strongest increase in the cold season (October–May) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Rainfall frequency is estimated to have increased over the Arctic by 2.7–5.4% over 2000–2016 (Boisvert et al., 2018) with more frequent rainfall events reported for NEU and ARO (Svalbard; Maturilli et al., 2015; AMAP , 2019), and winter rain totals and frequency have increased in Svalbard since 2000 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The CMIP5 models reproduce the observed Arctic warming over the past century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In the south-west, north-east and north-west, SMB turns negative or close to zero after 2000 and remains above zero in other regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The Arctic warming may be as much as 4°C in the annual mean and 7°C in late autumn under 2°C global warming, regardless of which scenario is considered (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In projections from 30 CMIP5 models, winter warming over ARO varies regionally from 3°C to 5°C by mid-century and 5°C to 9°C by late-century under RCP4.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
End-of-the-century warming is approximately twice as large under RCP8.5 demonstrating the impact of the lower emissions under RCP4.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Consistent with the generally higher warming in CMIP6, compared to CMIP5, the projected precipitation increase is also higher (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The pattern and amplitude of precipitation changes agree in CORDEX simulations with their driving CMIP5 models (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The CMIP5 models show a decrease in annual Arctic snowfall under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
With ongoing warming and polar amplification in the Arctic, the Greenland Ice Sheet SMB will inevitably continue to change (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The CMIP5 models reproduce the observed Arctic warming over the past century but overestimate the amplified Arctic warming in the recent decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Arctic CORDEX simulations show adequate skill in capturing regional temperature and precipitation patterns and precipitation extremes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
SMB models have improved due to increased availability and quality of remotely sensed and in situ observations, and an ensemble mean of SMB model simulations provides the best estimate of the present- day SMB (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
These include increased heat-related human mortality (medium confidence), warm-water coral bleaching and mortality (high confidence), and increased drought-related tree mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adverse impacts from tropical cyclones, with related losses and damages19, have increased due to sea level rise and the increase in heavy precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts in natural and human systems from slow-onset processes29 such as ocean acidification, sea level rise or regional decreases in precipitation have also been attributed to human induced climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The extent and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Widespread deterioration of ecosystem structure and function, resilience and natural adaptive capacity, as well as shifts in seasonal timing have occurred due to climate change (high confidence), with adverse socioeconomic consequences (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Approximately half of the species assessed globally have shifted polewards or, on land, also to higher elevations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Hundreds of local losses of species have been driven by increases in the magnitude of heat extremes (high confidence), as well as mass mortality events on land and in the ocean (very high confidence) and loss of kelp forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some losses are already irreversible, such as the first species extinctions driven by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Other impacts are approaching irreversibility such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers, or the changes in some mountain (medium confidence) and Arctic ecosystems driven by permafrost thaw (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although overall agricultural productivity has increased, climate change has slowed this growth over the past 50 years globally (medium confidence), related negative impacts were mainly in mid- and low latitude regions but positive impacts occurred in some high latitude regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean warming and ocean acidification have adversely affected food production from shellfish aquaculture and fisheries in some oceanic regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity30 and reduced water security, with the largest impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Jointly, sudden losses of food production and access to food compounded by decreased diet diversity have increased malnutrition in many communities (high confidence), especially for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income households (high confidence), with children, elderly people and pregnant women particularly impacted (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Roughly half of the world’s population currently experience severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year due to climatic and non-climatic drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change impacts on health are mediated through natural and human systems, including economic and social conditions and disruptions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In all regions extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The incidence of vector-borne diseases has increased from range expansion and/or increased reproduction of disease vectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, are emerging in new areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although diarrheal diseases have decreased globally, higher temperatures, increased rain and flooding have increased the occurrence of diarrheal diseases, including cholera (very high confidence) and other gastrointestinal infections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from weather and climate extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens have been associated with climate-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory distress (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as floods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Multiple climate and non-climate hazards impact cities, settlements and infrastructure and sometimes coincide, magnifying damage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hot extremes including heatwaves have intensified in cities (high confidence), where they have also aggravated air pollution events (medium confidence) and limited functioning of key infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed impacts are concentrated amongst the economically and socially marginalized urban residents, e.g., in informal settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and impacts to well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some positive economic effects have been identified in regions that have benefited from lower energy demand as well as comparative advantages in agricultural markets and tourism (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, with regional effects to agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism (high confidence), and through outdoor labour productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, have reduced economic growth in the short-term (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Non-climatic factors including some patterns of settlement, and siting of infrastructure have contributed to the exposure of more assets to extreme climate hazards increasing the magnitude of the losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Individual livelihoods have been affected through changes in agricultural productivity, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, with adverse effects on gender and social equity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in all regions (high confidence), with Small Island States disproportionately affected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Flood and drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa (high confidence) and Central and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While non-climatic factors are the dominant drivers of existing intrastate violent conflicts, in some assessed regions extreme weather and climate events have had a small, adverse impact on their length, severity or frequency, but the statistical association is weak (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme weather and climate events, climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A high proportion of species is vulnerable to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)