rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Modern biotechnology has not demonstrated the scale neutrality needed to serve smallholder-dominated agroecosystems, due to a combination of the kinds of traits and restrictions that come from the predominant intellectual property rights instruments used in their commercialisation, as well as the focus on a small number of major crop species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Diversification improves regulating and supporting ecosystem services such as pest control, soil fertility and health, pollination, nutrient cycling, water regulation and buffering of temperature extremes (high confidence) (Barral et al., 2015; Prieto et al., 2015; Tiemann et al., 2015; Schulte et al., 2017; Beillouin et al., 2019a; Dainese et al., 2019; Kuyah et al., 2019; Tamburini et al., 2020), which can in turn mediate yield stability and reduced risk of crop loss according to socio-ecological contexts and time since adoption (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence is accumulating that rising temperatures are increasing heat stress in domestic species and affecting productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changing seasonality, increasing frequency of drought and rising temperatures are affecting pastoral systems globally (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent stagnation in dairy production in West Africa and China may be associated with increased periods of high daily temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Escalating demand for livestock products in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) may necessitate considerable adaptation in the face of new thermal environments (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under SSP5-8.5 to mid-century, land suitability for livestock production will decrease because of increased heat stress prevalence in mid and lower latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Growing infectious disease burdens in domesticated animals may have wide- ranging impacts on the vulnerability of rural livestock producers in the future, particularly related to human health and projected increases in zoonoses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Gender inequities can act as a risk multiplier, with women being more vulnerable than men to climate-change- induced food insecurity and related risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The future makeup of grasslands under climate change is uncertain, given the variation in responses of the component species, though this variation may provide a climate buffer (Jones, 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The prevalence and occurrence of some livestock diseases are positively associated with extreme weather events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will negatively affect the provisioning of social benefits in many of the world’s grasslands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Combining adaptations can result in increases in benefits in terms of production and livelihoods over and above those attainable from single adaptations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Large pulses of tree mortality were consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions for forests throughout the temperate and boreal biomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A recent example of the impacts of climatic extremes is the European drought of 2018 (Buras et al., 2020), which led to a significant browning of the vegetation and resulted in widespread tree mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, the observed patterns of post-disturbance recovery vary with region, with reduced tree regeneration reported for the western USA (Stevens-Rumann and Morgan, 2019; Turner et al., 2019) but robust recovery observed in Canada (White et al., 2017) and Central Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate-induced disturbances could also reduce the temporal stability of ecosystem service supply (Albrich et al., 2018), increasing the volatility of timber markets (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
On a global and regional scale, there is limited evidence and high agreement (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
According to these studies, global timber supply will increase as the result of an increase in global forest growth under climate change scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Evidence emerging since the last assessment report further bolstered the notion that adapting the tree species composition to more warm-tolerant and less disturbance-prone species can significantly mitigate climate change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Furthermore, increasing the diversity of tree species within stands can have positive effects on tree growth and reduce disturbance impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Managing for continuous forest cover can also help to maintain the forest microclimate and buffer tree regeneration and the forest floor community against climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, recent evidence suggests that these measures diminish in efficiency under climate change and can have corollary effects on other important forest functions such as carbon storage and habitat quality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Also, measures targeting landscape structure and composition have proven effective for increasing the climate resilience of forest systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Experimental trials have shown that drought stresses increase phytochemical content, either by decreasing biomass or increasing metabolites production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-change-induced impacts of access to wild foods are also of concern in Arctic regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Communities across other (non-Arctic) parts of North America and Europe also report declining availability of wild foods, with climate change among the perceived drivers for decline (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Marine heatwaves have increased in frequency over the 20th century, with an approximate doubling since the 1980s (high confidence), and their intensity and duration have also increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The surface open ocean pH has declined globally over the last 40 years by 0.003–0.026 pH per decade (virtually certain), and a decline in the ocean interior pH has been observed in all ocean basins over the past two to three decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed impacts in some inland aquatic systems indicate substantial productivity reductions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These changes are of particular concern in regions with few nutrition alternatives, such as low-income countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, and Central and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Freshwater ecosystems that support most inland fisheries are under continuing threat from changes in land use, water availability and pollution and other pressures that will be exacerbated by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The concern over aquatic food products’ safety due to climate change is increasing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The social vulnerability can differ largely between locations, even between relatively close coastal or inland communities (Bennett et al., 2014; Maina et al., 2016; Ndhlovu et al., 2017; Martins et al., 2019) and among inhabitants within a location, depending on factors such as access to other economic activities, education, health, adults in the household, and political connections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In general, gendered division of labour tends to cause lower salaries for women and different perception and experience of risk to climate change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coordinated fisheries management can substantially expand capacity to respond to a changing climate (Pinsky et al., 2020), but a great deal of political will, capacity building and collective action will be necessary (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Today, approximately half the world’s population (~4 billion out of 7.8 billion people) are assessed as being currently subject to severe water scarcity for at least 1 month per year (medium confidence) (Box 4.1), and freshwater inland fisheries are particularly vulnerable as they are given lower priority for water resources than other sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward by the end of the century under RCP8.5, while skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to increase abundance in tropical areas of the eastern Pacific but decrease in the equatorial western Pacific (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, in general, where land barriers constrain the latitudinal shifts, the expected impacts of climate change are population declines and reduced productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Besides direct impacts on the abundance of fisheries-targeted species, climate-change-induced proliferation of invasive species could also affect fisheries’ productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Shifting marine fisheries will affect national economies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean acidification is also expected to drive large global economic impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In addition to temperature and water availability stress, climate change will bring new water quality challenges in freshwater systems, including increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate warming may enhance northward colonisation of water bodies of commercial freshwater species in the Arctic, where there are few ecological competitors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Specifically, overfishing is the most critical non-climatic driver affecting the sustainability of fisheries, and therefore improving management could help rebuild fish stocks, reduce ecosystem impacts and increase the adaptive capacity of fishing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For Pacific Islands and Coastal Territories, fisheries adaptation will require significant investment from local governments and the private sector (Rosegrant et al., 2016), and reducing dependence on or finding alternatives to vulnerable marine resources (Johnson et al., 2020; Mabe and Asase, 2020).Adaptive capacity is strongly associated with social capital (i.e., the networks, shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Improving information flows allows for a more efficient co-management implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities as partners across climate research ensures this knowledge is utilised, enhancing the usefulness of assessments (Bindoff et al., 2019) and facilitating the co-construction and implementation of sustainable solutions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems are already experiencing species shifts in response to climate change (very high confidence) (see also Sections 2.4.2.1. and 3.4.3., Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), with subsequent impacts on food provisioning services, pests and diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nutritional dependency, cultural importance, livelihood, or economic reliance on shifting species will increase impacts of climate change, especially for small-scale fishers (marine and freshwater), farmers, women and communities highly dependent on local sources of food and nutrition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shifting species have negative implications for the equitable distribution of food provisioning services, increasing the complexity of resolving sovereignty claims and climate justice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Flexible and rapid policy reform and management adaptation will help to meet sustainability targets (Nguyen et al., 2016; Pentz and Klenk, 2020), and may only be available for countries with the scientific, technical and institutional capacity to implement these (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Overall, decreases in GHG emissions under future scenarios would reduce increases in global temperatures and limit species shifts, thereby lowering the likelihood of conflicts and food insecurity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Terrestrial Species Shifts There is robust evidence of shifts that terrestrial species have shifted poleward in high latitudes, with general declines of sea-ice dependent as well as some extreme-polar-adapted species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ecosystem-based management approaches exist for terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, but have proved successful only with early engagement of local small-scale, subsistence fishers/harvesters, utilising Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and needs, in addition to those of larger-scale operators (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Aquaculture can contribute to SDGs by reducing poverty and food insecurity, filling increasing aquatic food demand shortages from declining capture fisheries production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Marine heatwaves have been increasing in both incidence and longevity over the past century (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Oliver et al., 2018; Bricknell et al., 2021), with productivity consequences for marine aquaculture (mariculture), carbon sequestration and local species extinctions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Temperature increases related to El Niño climatic oscillations have caused mass fish mortalities either through warming waters (e.g., Pacific threadfin in Hawaii (McCoy et al., 2017)) or associated HABs (e.g., 12% loss of Atlantic salmon as well as other fish and shellfish in Chile in 2016, with estimated USD 800 million in losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increases in sea lice parasite infestations on salmon are related to higher salinity and warmer waters (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ocean acidification is having negative impacts on the sustainability of mariculture production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean oxygen levels are declining due to climate change (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, 2021), and decreased oxygen (hypoxia) has negative impacts on fish physiology (Cadiz et al., 2018; Hvas and Oppedal, 2019; Martos-Sitcha et al., 2019; Perera et al., 2021), fish growth, behaviour and sensitivity to concurrent stressors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed climate impacts on inland aquaculture systems have generally been site and region specific (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Salinity intrusions into freshwater aquaculture systems have changed oxygen and water quality of inland ponds, resulting in mortalities in areas such as India and Bangladesh (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Rapid changes in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods and erosion have created significant production losses for aquatic farmers in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam and Ghana (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Common vulnerabilities to inland and marine aquaculture include increasing incidence and toxicity of HABs related to warming waters, causing fish kills and product consumption risks, negatively impacting the productivity and stability of production sectors and reliant communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate uncertainty and data limitations hinder vulnerability assess- ments (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Filling data gaps with mon- itoring (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the majority of lower-middle-income countries, seaweed culture is dominated by women in family-owned businesses as in Zanzibar and the Philippines (Brugere et al., 2020; Ramirez et al., 2020), where women are not always paid directly but contribute to family incomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Women employed in aquaculture cooperatives gained adaptive capacity, which reduced gender inequities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Women in aquaculture experience competing roles between employment, childcare and home duties (high confidence) (Morgan et al., 2015; Lauria et al., 2018; Chávez et al., 2019; see Cross- Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18) and differ from men in terms of perceptions of environmental risk, climate change and adaptation behaviour, with limited contributions to decision making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Sensitivities for marine finfish may be high even under +1.5–2.0°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Marine heatwaves are predicted to increase in occurrence, intensity and persistence under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 by 2100 (Oliver et al., 2019; Bricknell et al., 2021), with risk partly mitigated by husbandry (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change is predicted to affect the incidence, magnitude and virulence of finfish disease such as Vibriosis (Barber et al., 2016; Mohamad et al., 2019a; Mohamad et al., 2019b), but specific host–pathogen–climate relationships are not yet established (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shellfish growth will increase with warming waters until tolerances are reached, such as through extreme El Niño events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Rising temperatures and ocean acidification will result in losses of primary productivity and farmed species from tropical and subtropical regions, and gains in higher latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shellfish Vibrio infections will increase with warming waters and extreme events, increasing shellfish mortalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Bivalve larvae are known to be highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (high confidence) (see Section 3.3, Bindoff et al., 2019), with projected regional and species-specific levels of impact (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean acidification is also projected to weaken shells, affecting productivity and processing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected thermal increases of 1.5°C will reduce ecosystem services, further reduced under 2°C warming, with associated increases in acidification, hypoxia, dead zones, flooding and water restrictions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Sudden production losses from extreme climate events can exacerbate food security challenges across production sectors, including aquaculture, increasing global hunger (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mangrove reforestation efforts in Asia may have some effectiveness in re-creating important nursery grounds for aquatic species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Families are highly vulnerable to climate change where nutritional needs are being met by self-production, such as in Mozambique, Namibia (Villasante et al., 2015), Zambia (Kaminski et al., 2018) and Bangladesh (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will therefore affect multiple ecosystem services where ultimately decisions on balance or trade-offs will vary with regional perceptions of service value (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Early participation of stakeholders in adaptive planning has promoted action and ownership of results (high confidence), such as in India and the USA (Link et al., 2015; FAO, 2018c; Soto et al., 2018) Early outreach, education and knowledge gap assessments raise awareness, where utilisation of local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge and scientific involvement support informed adaptive planning and uptake for all stakeholders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Supporting the active involvement of women helps address gender inequity and perceived risk, particularly for smallholder farmers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, regional and national political influences, financial and technical capacity, governance planning and policy development will ultimately support or hinder adaptation for aquaculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Species diversification through co-culture, integrated aquaculture– agriculture (e.g., rice–fish) or integrated multi-trophic culture (e.g., shrimp–tilapia–seaweed or finfish–bivalve–seaweed) may maintain farm long-term performance and viability by: creating new aquaculture opportunities; promoting societal and environmental stability; reducing GHG emissions through reduced feed usage and waste; and carbon sequestration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Selective breeding of species in aquaculture systems can promote climate resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projections of climate on aquaculture production traits are not well understood (Lhorente et al., 2019); therefore, genetic diversity needs to be maintained to ensure population fitness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, land-based aquaculture requires large capital and operational costs and use of land, increasing conflicts between land and water use, have increased energy demands (increasing GHG if fossil fuels are the primary energy source), require necessary expertise and will not reduce outgrowing exposures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Geographical selection of marine farm sites may prevent climate productivity declines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Building coastal protection, stronger cages and mooring systems, and deeper ponds and using sheltered bays can reduce escapees and mortalities related to flooding, increased storms and extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Other adaptation options for limited water supply are government equitable water allocations and water storage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Feed formulations and improved feed conversion can reduce climate- associated stress for freshwater species, significantly reducing waste and increase sustainability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Improved farm management is a key opportunity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Specialised industry portals (Pacific shellfish) and government-established monitoring programmes (Chilean salmon) and other observational networks (e.g., Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON)) can provide real-time monitoring and early-warning event alerts and facilitate aquaculture decision making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Seasonal forecasting, downscaled models and early-warning systems provide valuable regional or farm site risk information (Hobday et al., 2018; Galappaththi et al., 2020b; Whitney et al., 2020), but monitoring will need to be useful for farmers, involve farmers, and be accurate, timely, cost-effective, reviewed and maintained in order to ensure uptake (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Early-warning systems for HABs enable rapid decision making and risk mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
New tools, strategies and observations are needed to predict HAB occurrences and range shifts with changing climate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous groups differ in opinions on aquaculture acceptability, implications for coastal management and territorial rights (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Therefore policy, economic, knowledge and other support must ensure representation with traditional and other stakeholder ecological knowledge at national, regional and local levels to facilitate climate change adaptation and safeguard human rights for poor and vulnerable groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Research indicates that mixed crop–livestock systems are often more resilient to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The adoption and maintenance of agroforestry practices require appropriate incentives or the removal of barriers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The relative environmental impact of hydroponic systems is lower com- pared with conventional systems owing to the significant reductions in land use and fertilizer usage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While studies indicate that aquaponics and hydroponics have higher yields and a lower environmental footprint than conventional agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The vulnerability of many crop–livestock keepers to climate change is particularly affected by property and grazing rights (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shade-grown cocoa and coffee agroforestry systems provide an array of ecosystem services, including regulating pests and diseases, maintaining soil fertility, maintaining biodiversity and carbon sequestration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation measures in such systems need to consider co-benefits and negative trade-offs, especially in vulnerable communities, to avoid widening further the inequities, rural livelihood loss, migration and marginalisation, and ensure progress towards the SDGs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)