rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
In particular, coastal socio-ecological systems (RKR-A), living standards (RKR-D), food security (RKR-F), water security (RKR-G) and peace and human mobility (RKR-H), have strong linkages with SDG 2 (zero hunger), for which there are significant to major challenges for all regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Almost all the RKRs are strongly linked to SDGs 8 (decent work and economic growth) and 11 (sustainable cities and communities) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
All regions also face major to significant challenges affecting SDGs 14 (life below water) and 15 (life on land), which relate to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems (RKR-B) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
They also will be indirectly linked to, and thus affect, the SDGs overall, due to the interactions between the key risks (Section 16.5) and between the SDGs themselves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In the near term, the strength of connection between the RKRs and the SDGs, with respect to existing SDG challenges, indicate probable systemic vulnerabilities and issues in responding to climatic hazards (UN-IATFFD, 2019; Leal Filho et al., 2020; Weaver et al., 2020; Tiedemann et al., 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Species extinction is irreversible, and Chapter 2 assesses that, at ~1.6°C, >10% of species are projected to become endangered as compared with >20% at ~2.1°C (median), representing high and very high biodiversity risk, respectively (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Based on observed and modelled impacts to unique and threatened systems, including in particular coral reefs, sea-ice-dependent systems and biodiversity hotspots, AR6 assesses that the transition to high risks for RFC1 have already occurred at a median level of 0.9°C, with a lower bound at 0.7°C and an upper bound at the present-day level of global warming of 1.2°C (WMO, 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Small island communities are confronted by socio-ecological limits to adaptation well before 2100, especially those reliant on coral reef systems for their livelihoods, even for a low-emissions pathway (Chapter 3) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At warming levels beyond 1.5°C, the potential to reach biophysical limits to adaptation due to limited water resources are reported for small islands (medium confidence) and unique systems dependent on glaciers and snowmelt (Chapter 4) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In AR6, risks are considered to start to transition from high to very high risks above 1.2°C warming (present day, WMO, 2020), with a median value of 1.5°C, owing in particular to the observation of a present-day onset of ecosystem degradation in coral reefs, which are projected in the SR15 report ‘to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Warming of 1.5°C is also assessed (Chapter 3) to reduce the habitability of small islands, due to the combined impacts of several key risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This includes increases in hot extremes over most land regions (virtually certain), increases in heavy precipitation at the global scale and over most regions with sufficient observations (high confidence), and increases in agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, food security and livelihoods are being affected by short-term food shortages caused by climate extremes (Section 5.12.1; Chapter 16, Food Security RKR) which have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In particular, heavy precipitation and associated flooding are projected to intensify and be more frequent in most regions in Africa and Asia (high confidence), North America (medium to high confidence depending on the region) and Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Also, more frequent and/or severe agricultural and ecological droughts are projected in a few regions in all continents except Asia, compared with 1850–1900 (medium confidence); increases in meteorological droughts are also projected in a few regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In SR15 Section 3.5.2.4 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018b), economic literature on potential socioeconomic threshold events and empirical studies of global economic damages, combined with new evidence on biome shifts, extinction risk, species range loss (especially noting the integral role of insects in ecosystem function) and ecosystem degradation, were assessed, and the upper bound of the transition to moderate risk was lowered to 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels, and the transition from moderate and high risk was lowered to between 1.5°C and 2.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Cross-Working Group Box ECONOMIC in this chapter includes a more thorough discussion of advancements and limitations of global economic impact estimates and methodologies, finding significant variation in estimates that increases with warming, indicating higher risk in terms of economic costs at higher temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce the nutritional quality of wheat, rice and other major crops, potentially affecting millions of people at a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to pre-industrial (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Section 16.5.2.3.2 (RKR-B, risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems) finds that substantial biodiversity loss globally, abrupt local ecosystem mortality impacts, and ecological species disruption are all projected at global warming levels below 3°C, with insular systems and biodiversity hotspots at risk below 2°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under a 4°C warming scenario, models project global annual damages associated with SLR of $31,000 billion yr–1 in 2100 (Brown et al., 2021) In terms of global economic impact, while an emerging economic literature is addressing many gaps and critiques of previous damage estimates for high warming (e.g., Jensen and Traeger, 2014; Burke et al., 2015; Lontzek et al., 2015; Moore and Diaz, 2015; Lemoine and Traeger, 2016; Moore et al., 2017a; Cai and Lontzek; Takakura et al., 2019, discussed further in Cross-Working Group Box ECONOMIC; Carleton et al., 2020; Méjean et al., 2020; Rode et al., 2021), there remains wide variation across disparate methodologies, though the spread of estimates increases with warming in all methodologies, indicating higher risk in terms of economic costs at higher temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks to aggregate economic output would become severe at the global scale at high warming (~4.4°C) and minimal adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Chapter 4 finds that, at 4°C, 4 billion people are projected to be exposed to physical water scarcity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The wide range of estimates, and the lack of comparability between methodologies, does not allow for identification of a robust range of estimates with confidence (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evaluating and reconciling differences in methodologies is a research priority for facilitating use of the different lines of evidence (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Chapter 2 has assessed ecosystem carbon loss from tipping points in tropical forest and loss of Arctic permafrost, and finds a transition to moderate risk over the range 0.6–0.9°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Technical issues with past and current modelling (e.g., Pezzey, 2019; Pindyck, 2019; EPRI, 2021) and the challenge of comparability across methodologies imply that many estimates are not robust (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Better representation of uncertainty in methods can improve robustness, while detailed methodology assessment and comparison will help define the relative biases of methods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Therefore, we assess an increasing link between MISI, WAIS collapse and Antarctic mass loss, for increasing temperature levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
AR6 assesses that it is virtually certain that sea level was higher than today at that time, likely by 5–10 m (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, a transition from high to very high risk is provided for the first time in this AR6 assessment, between 2.0°C and 3.5°C warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In summary, risks to unique and threatened systems (RFC1) are higher at recent and projected levels of warming than assessed previously (very high confidence); risks associated with extreme weather events (RFC2) are assessed comparably to AR5 and SR15 at recent and low levels of warming, but notably much higher at projected warming above 1.8°C (medium confidence); risks associated with distribution of impacts (RFC3) and global aggregate impacts (RFC4) are similar to SR15 and higher than AR5 above 2°C (medium confidence); and those associated with large-scale singular events (RFC5) are similar to SR15 and higher at both recent and projected warming than AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would ensure risk levels remain moderate for RFC3, RFC4 and RFC5 (medium confidence), but risk for RFC2 would have transitioned to a high risk at 1.5°C and RFC1 would be well into the transition to very high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, in some circumstances, expanded global adaptation could slow some of these transitions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Many options are widely applicable and could be scaled up to reduce vulnerability or exposure for the majority of the world’s population and the ecosystems they depend on (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These include nature restoration (high confidence), changing diets and reducing food waste (high confidence), infrastructure retrofitting (high confidence), building codes (medium confidence), disaster early warning (high confidence) and cooperative governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The portfolio of adaptation options that could be successfully implemented varies across locations, with resource-limited and conflict-affected contexts bearing large amounts of residual risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The majority of climate risk management and adaptation currently being planned and implemented is incremental (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transformational adaptation will become increasingly necessary at higher global warming levels (medium confidence) but can be associated with significant and inequitable trade-offs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptations with some of the highest transformative potential include migration (high confidence), spatial planning (medium confidence), governance cooperation (medium confidence), universal access to health care (medium confidence) and changing food systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Options that tend to modify existing systems incrementally include early-warning systems (high confidence), insurance (medium confidence) and improved water use efficiency (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Governance, especially when inclusive and context sensitive, is an important enabling condition for climate risk management and adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.arrangements of public, private and community actors, is being increasingly recognised as important across many decision- making settings (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Public governance leadership has the largest role for social safety nets, spatial planning and building codes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Private sector governance is important for insurance and for minimising the stressors that can negatively impact ecosystems and their functions, especially in the absence of public regulations or enforcement (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Communities and individuals play the largest role in governance of adaptations to farming and fishery practices and ecosystem-based adaptations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Informal or individual-led decision-making is more common in food security and livelihood-related adaptations, such as changes to diets, livelihood diversification and seasonal migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
People who have experienced climate shocks are more likely to take on informal adaptation measures, and in places where people are more exposed to extreme events, autonomous adaptation is more common (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
National and international legal and policy frameworks and instruments support the planning and implementation of adaptation and climate risk management across scales, especially when combined with guidelines for action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have been drivers of national adaptation planning, with cascading effects on sectors and sub-national action, especially in developing countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nearly all developing countries (particularly Small Island Developing States [SIDS]) that included an adaptation component in their NDCs consider adaptation the most urgent aspect of their national climate change response (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A steady increase in national and sub-national laws, policies and regulations that mandate reporting and risk disclosure has promoted adaptation response across public agencies, private firms and community organisations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Greater adaptation is present where national climate laws and policies require adaptation action from lower levels of government and include guidelines on how to do so (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Recognition of the critical role of financing for adaptation and resilience as an important enabler for climate risk management has strengthened (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yet, since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the gap between the estimated costs of adaptation and the documented (tracked) finance allocated to adaptation has widened (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Estimated global and regional costs of adaptation vary widely due to differences in assumptions, methods and data; the majority of more recent estimates are higher than the figures presented in AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A high proportion of developing country NDC adaptation contributions are conditional on external financial support, emphasising the crucial role of international finance to achieving adaptation efforts commensurate with climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Private sector financing for adaptation has been increasingly promoted as a response to realised adaptation finance needs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, private sector financing of adaptation has been limited, especially in developing countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Tracked private sector finance for climate change action has grown substantially since 2015, but the proportion directed towards adaptation has remained small (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A key challenge for private sector financing of adaptation is demonstrating financial return on investment, as many benefits of adaptation arise as avoided damages or public goods, rather than direct revenue streams (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Leveraging private finance in developing countries is often more difficult because of risk (perceived and real) to investors, reducing the pool of potential investors and/or raising the cost (interest) of investment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Information and knowledge on climate risk and adaptation options, derived from different knowledge systems, can support risk management and adaptation decisions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Processes, such as co-production, that link scientific, Indigenous, local, practitioner and other forms of knowledge can make climate risk management processes and outcomes more effective and sustainable (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate services that provide reliable, relevant and usable climate information for the short or long term are increasingly being produced and used in climate risk management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In many regions and sectors, the utility of climate services is strengthened by sustained engagement between stakeholders and experts and by co-production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Catalysing conditions and windows of opportunity can drive shifts in motivation and adaptation effort, stimulating more rapid uptake of existing and new adaptation options (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Disaster events or shocks such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, heatwaves or coral bleaching have catalysing characteristics (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Additional types of catalysing conditions include climate litigation and the presence of individuals and organisations that act as policy and decision innovators, including government and business innovators in cities (medium confidence), stimulating action within and beyond their immediate contexts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Litigation on failure of government and business to adapt is becoming more frequent and is expected to increase as climate impact attribution science matures further (high confidence) {Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in this Chapter; 17.4.5.2, 17.4.5.3}.Urgency can stimulate prompt climate risk management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A moderate level of urgency contributes to enhanced climate action, while both high and low levels of urgency can impede response (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As conditions approach a crisis state, however, urgency can weaken decision-making rather than support it (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Decision support tools and decision-analytic methods are available and are being applied for managing climate risks in varied contexts, including where deep uncertainty is present (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These tools and methods have been shown to support deliberative processes where stakeholders jointly consider factors such as the rate and magnitude of change and their uncertainties, associated impacts and timescales of adaptation needed along multiple pathways and scenarios of future risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, comparative evidence on the relative utility of different analytical methods in their use by decision makers for managing climate risks is an important gap (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Nevertheless, robust decision-making, using pathway analyses to determine ‘no regrets’ options among trade-offs, has been shown to be a useful starting point under deep uncertainty (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Methods for analysing options differ across geo- political scales, with modelling studies being a particularly prominent method across scales from community and urban to regional and national (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Successful adaptation and maladaptation form the opposite poles of a continuum (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The evaluation of an adaptation option and its location on this continuum are context specific and vary across time, place and evaluation perspectives (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite knowledge gaps, adaptation options can be assessed according to several criteria, such as benefits to humans, benefits to ecosystem services, benefits to equity (marginalised ethnic groups, gender, low-income populations), transformational potential and contribution to greenhouse gas emission reduction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These factors can aid evaluation of co-benefits and trade- offs within and between adaptation responses (high confidence) facilitating successful adaptation and reducing the likelihood of maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation options across a range of climate risk settings (Representative Key Risks) have potential for some degree of maladaptation alongside varied potential for success (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Maladaptation can result from unaccounted trade- offs with low-income groups and the transformational potential of adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Success is greatest when adaptation enhances gender equity (medium confidence) and supports ecosystem function and services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Examples of options with high potential for successful adaptation are nature restoration (medium confidence), social safety nets (medium confidence) and adaptations relating to changes of diets and reducing food waste (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
M&E application has increased since AR5 at the local, project and national level, but is still at an early stage in most countries (high confidence) and underutilised as a way to assess adaptation outcomes at longer time frames (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
About one-third of countries have undertaken steps to develop national adaptation M&E systems, but fewer than half of these are reporting on implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
M&E, as well as tracking global progress on adaptation, are confronted with a number of challenges (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Understanding of residual impacts and risks in vulnerable regions and implications for Loss and Damage (L&D) has become increasingly relevant as the limits to adaptation are projected to be reached in natural and human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yet, the policy space and concrete remit for L&D has remained vague, which renders policy formulation complex (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective management of climate risks is dependent on systematically integrating adaptations across interacting climate risks, ensuring that measures of success include factors important to climate resilient development, and accounting for the dynamic nature of climate risks over time (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate risks can emerge at different rates and time horizons, and the interactions between risks vary from region to region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The need to manage these risks in an integrated manner is demonstrated by the diverse and interacting impacts of climate risks on ecosystems, cities, health, and poverty and livelihoods, such as in the water–energy– food nexus (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Expertise and resources for integrated risk management vary between the developed and developing countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Integrated pathways for managing climate risks will be most suitable when ‘low regrets’ anticipatory options are established jointly across sectors in a timely manner, path dependencies are avoided in order to not limit future options for climate resilient development, and maladaptations across sectors are avoided (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Of this list of adaptation options, many focus on reducing vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Next to vulnerability reduction, a large number of adaptation options focus on reducing exposure to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation efforts can have negative impacts on ecosystems and vulnerable groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
When it comes to decision-making, most of these 24 adaptations rely strongly on formal decision-making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In contrast, informal or individual-led decision-making is more common in several food security-related and livelihood-related adaptations, such as changes to diets, livelihood diversification and seasonal migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
All adaptation options can occur under a range of governance arrangements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This is particularly true for social safety nets and spatial planning, where governments are often required to lead adaptation efforts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There are a number of adaptation options that tend to be governed by communities and individuals, including adaptations to farming and fishery practices and ecosystem-based adaptations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many of the more generalisable adaptations have also been shown to have benefits to ecosystem services, such as nature restoration and changes to diets/food waste (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)