rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Mortality and hospital admissions for circulatory and respiratory diseases are increased after exposures to Asian dust events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ambient temperature is associated with the risk of an outbreak of mosquito-borne disease in South and Southeast Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The duration and survival rate of dengue mosquito development, mosquito density, mosquito biting activity, mosquito spatio-temporal range and distribution, and mosquito flying distance are all affected by temperature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Temperature, precipitation, humidity and air pressure are major weather factors associated with dengue fever transmission (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change alters the hydrological cycle by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events such as excess precipitation, storm surges, floods and droughts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Water-borne diseases, such as diarrhoea, leptospirosis and typhoid fever, can increase in incidence following heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones and flooding events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Crop destruction due to tropical cyclones can include salt damage from tides blowing inland (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, hurricanes and cyclones, increase injuries and mental disorders (post- traumatic stress disorder and depressive disorders) (Rataj et al., 2016), thereby negatively affecting well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The association between variations in ambient temperature and the occurrence of asthma has been reported in several Asian countries/regions such as Japan (Yamazaki et al., 2015), the Republic of Korea (Kwon et al., 2016), China (Li et al., 2016a) and Hong Kong SAR of China (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
South and Southeast Asia are projected to be among the highest-risk regions for reduced dietary iron intake among women of childbearing age and children under five years due to elevated CO 2 concentrations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For nearly five decades, integrated coastal management (ICM), advocated by several international organisations (e.g., IMO, UNEP , WHO, FAO) and adopted by over 100 countries, has been acknowledged as a holistic coastal governance approach aimed at achieving coastal sustainability and reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities in the face of multiple environmental impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some Asian countries and regions offer solutions to overcome these barriers: through use of advanced technologies (in situ observation and remote sensing, a variety of new sensor technologies, citizen science, AI and machine learning tools); regional partnerships and learning; improved forecasting capabilities; and better risk awareness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ongoing warming is projected, with more hot days and fewer cold days (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Further sea level rise (SLR), ocean warming and ocean acidification are projected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Less winter and spring rainfall is projected in southern Australia, with more winter rainfall in Tasmania, less autumn rainfall in southwestern Victoria and less summer rainfall in western Tasmania (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, more winter and spring rainfall is projected in the west and less in the east and north, with more summer rainfall in the east and less in the west and central North Island (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, ongoing glacier retreat is projected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
More extreme fire weather is projected in southern and eastern Australia (high confidence) and over northern and eastern New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased drought frequency is projected for southern and eastern Australia and northern New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased heavy rainfall intensity is projected, with fewer tropical cyclones and a greater proportion of severe cyclones (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Three marine heatwaves on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) during 2016–2020 caused significant bleaching and loss (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
For example loss of alpine vegetation communities (snow patch Feldmark and short alpine herb-fields) and increased stress on snow-dependent plant and animal species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example declining rainfall in southern Australia over the past 30 years, has led to drought- induced canopy dieback across a range of forest and woodland types and death of fire-sensitive tree species due to unprecedented wildfires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example less than 10% of giant kelp in Tasmania was remaining by 2011 due to ocean warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example for 0.5 m sea level rise (SLR), the value of buildings in New Zealand exposed to 1-in-100-year coastal inundation could increase by NZ$12.75 billion and the current 1-in-100-year flood in Australia could occur several times a year (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example by 2050, a decline in median wheat yields of up to 30% in southwestern Australia and up to 15% in South Australia and increased heat stress in livestock by 31–42 days per year (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example heat-related excess deaths in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are projected to increase by about 300/year (low emission pathway) to 600/year (high emission pathway) during the 2031–2080 period relative to 142/year in the period 1971–2020 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example in New Zealand, extreme snow, heavy rainfall and wind events have combined to impact road networks, power and water supply, interdependent wastewater and stormwater services and business activities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example the scale and scope of projected climate impacts overwhelm the capacity of institutions, organisations and systems to provide necessary policies, services, resources and coordination to address socioeconomic impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There are important interactions between mitigation and adaptation policies and their implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Existing vulnerabilities expose and exacerbate inequalities between rural, regional and urban areas, Indigenous and non-Indigenous Peoples, those with health and disability needs, and between generations, incomes and health status, increasing the relative climate change risk faced by some groups and places (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the absence of proactive adaptation, climate change impacts are projected to worsen inequalities between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples and other vulnerable groups (Green et al., 2009; Manning et al., 2014; Ambrey et al., 2017) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changes to the composition and location of different demographic groups in the region contribute to increased exposure or vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Conclusions Report Our regional climate is changing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Benefits are projected for some sectors and locations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation is occurring and becoming mainstreamed in some planning processes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptive capacity is considered generally high in many human systems, but adaptation implementation faces major barriers, especially for transformational responses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some synergies and trade-offs exist between different adaptation responses and between mitigation and adaptation, with interactions occurring both within and outside the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Vulnerability remains uncertain due to incomplete consideration of socioeconomic dimensions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Further climate change is inevitable, with the rate and magnitude largely dependent on the emission pathway (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Further warming is projected, with more hot days, fewer cold days, reduced snow cover, ongoing sea level rise (SLR) and ocean acidification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Winter and spring rainfall and soil moisture are projected to decrease, with higher evaporation rates, decreased wind over southern mainland Australia, increased wind over Tasmania, and more extreme fire weather in southern and eastern Australia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heavy rainfall intensity is projected to increase, with more droughts over southern and eastern Australia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased winter rainfall is projected over Tasmania, with decreased rainfall in southwestern Victoria in autumn and in western Tasmania in summer, fewer tropical cyclones with a greater proportion of severe cyclones and decreased soil moisture in the north (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Hailstorm frequency may increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Further warming is projected, with more hot days, fewer cold days, less snow and glacial ice, ongoing sea level rise (SLR) and ocean acidification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Increases in winter and spring rainfall are projected in the west of the North and South Islands, with drier conditions in the east and north, caused by stronger westerly winds (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In summer, wetter conditions are projected in the east of both islands, with drier conditions in the west and central North Island (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Fire weather indices are projected to increase over northern and eastern New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Heavy rainfall intensity is projected to increase over most regions, with increased extreme wind speeds in eastern regions, especially in Marlborough and Canterbury, and reduced relative humidity almost everywhere, except for the west coast in winter (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Drought frequency may increase in the north (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Risk is considered in terms of vulnerability, hazards (impact driver), exposure, reasons for concern and complex and cascading risks (Chapter 1; Figure 1.2).11.3.1 Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems 11.3.1.1 Observed Impacts Widespread and severe impacts on ecosystems and species are now evident across the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Natural forest and woodland ecosystem processes are experiencing differing impacts and responses depending on the climate zone (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In southern Australia, some forest ecosystems (alpine ash, snow gum woodland, pencil pine, northern jarrah) are projected to transition to a new state or collapse due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most New Zealand native plants are not fire resistant and are projected to be replaced by fire-resistant introduced species following climate-change- related fires (Perry et al., 2014).A loss of alpine biodiversity in the southeast Australian Alps bioregion is projected in the near-term as a result of less snow on snow patch feldmark and short alpine herb fields as well as increased stress on snow- dependent plant and animal species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Australia, invasive plants’ and weeds’ response rates are expected to be faster than for native species, and climate change could foster the appearance of a new set of weed species, with many bioregions facing increased impacts from non-native plants (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, climate change is projected to enable invasive species to expand to higher elevations and southwards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Improved coastal modelling, experiments and in situ studies are reducing uncertainties at a local scale about the impact of future sea level rise (SLR) on coastal freshwater terrestrial wetlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Best practice conservation adaptation planning is informed by data on key habitats, including refugia, and restoration that facilitates species movements and employs adaptive pathways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Adaptation planning for ecosystems and species requires monitoring and evaluation to identify trigger points and thresholds for new actions to be implemented (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There remains a gap between the knowledge generated, potential adaptation strategies and their incorporation into conservation instruments (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased fire activity in southeast Australia associated with climate change has been observed since 1950 (Abram et al., 2021), though trends vary regionally (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, there has been an increased frequency of major wildfires in plantations (FENZ, 2018) and at the rural–urban interface (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In Australia, the frequency and severity of dangerous fire weather conditions is increasing, with partial attribution to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Fire weather is projected to increase in frequency, severity and duration for southern and eastern Australia (high confidence) and most of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ocean carbon storage and acidification has led to decreased surface pH in the region (Table 11.2), including the sub-Antarctic waters off the East Coast of New Zealand’s South Island (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The depth of the Aragonite Saturation Horizon has shallowed by 50–100 m over much of New Zealand, which may limit and/or increase the energetic costs of growth of calcifying species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Extensive changes in the life history and distribution of species have been observed in Australia’s (very high confidence) (Gervais et al., 2021) and New Zealand’s marine systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme climatic events in Australia from 2011 to 2017 led to abrupt and extensive mortality of key habitat-forming organisms — corals, kelps, seagrasses and mangroves — along over 45% of the continental coastline of Australia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In 2016 and 2017, the GBR experienced consecutive occurrences of the most severe coral bleaching in recorded history (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Coral reefs in Australia are at very high risk of continued negative effects on ecosystem structure and function (very high confidence) (Hughes et al., 2019b), cultural well-being (very high confidence) (Goldberg et al., 2016; Lyons et al., 2019), food provision (medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017), coastal protection (high confidence) (Ferrario et al., 2014) and tourism (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Acidification may alter sex determination (e.g., in the oyster Saccostrea glomerate), resulting in changes in sex ratios (Parker et al., 2018), and may thus affect reproductive success (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The GBR is already severely impacted by climate change, particularly ocean warming, through more frequent and severe coral bleaching (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In 2017, the central third of the reef was the most severely affected and the back-to-back regional-scale bleaching events has led to an unprecedented shift in the composition of GBR coral assemblages, transforming the northern and middle sections of the reef system (Hughes et al., 2018c) to a highly degraded state (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Increased heat exposure also affects the abundance and distribution of associated fish, invertebrates and algae (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recovery of coral reefs following repeated disturbance events is slow (Hughes et al., 2019b; IPCC, 2019b), and it takes at least a decade after each bleaching event for the very fastest growing corals to recover (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Estimates of future levels of thermal stress, measured as degree heating months, which incorporates both the magnitude and duration of warm season SST anomalies, suggest that achieving the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target would be insufficient to prevent more frequent mass bleaching events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The pH of surface waters around New Zealand is projected to decline by 0.33 under RCP 8.5 by 2090 (Tait et al., 2016), and the depth at which carbonate dissolves is projected to be significantly shallower (Mikaloff-Fletcher et al., 2017), affecting the distribution of some species of calcifying cold water corals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The runoff decline in southern Australia is projected to be further accentuated by higher temperature and potential evapotranspiration (Potter and Chiew, 2011; Chiew et al., 2014), transpiration from tree regrowth following more frequent and severe wildfires (Brookhouse et al., 2013) (Box 11.1), interceptions from farm dams (Fowler et al., 2015) and reduced surface–groundwater connectivity (limiting groundwater discharge to rivers) in long dry spells (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Groundwater recharge across southern Australia has decreased in recent decades (Fu et al., 2019), and this trend is expected to continue (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is also projected to impact water quality in rivers and water bodies, particularly through higher temperature and low flows (Jöhnk et al., 2008) (Box 11.5) and increased sediment and nutrient load following wildfires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation initiatives and mechanisms, like significant government investment to enhance the Bureau of Meteorology online water information (Vertessy, 2013; BoM, 2016), funding to improve agricultural water use and irrigation efficiency (Koech and Langat, 2018), enhanced supply through inter-basin transfers and upgrading water infrastructure and an active water trading market (Wheeler et al., 2013; Kirby et al., 2014; Grafton et al., 2016) are helping to buffer regional systems against droughts and facilitating some adaptation to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The impact of declining water resources on agricultural, ecosystems and communities in southeastern Australia would escalate with ongoing climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In New Zealand, many water supplies are at risk from drought, extreme rainfall events and sea level rise (SLR), exacerbated by underinvestment in existing water infrastructure (in part due to funding constraints) and urban densification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to substantially reduce water resources in the MDB (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This reduction, plus increased demand for water in hot and dry conditions, would increase the already intense competition for water (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite contestation, the reforms have resulted in some substantive achievements, including returning an equivalent of about one-fifth of consumptive water to the environment through the purchase of irrigation water entitlements and infrastructure projects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Reform initiatives such as water markets, improving agriculture water use efficiency (Koech and Langat, 2018), and increasing environmental water are helping buffer the system against droughts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The intense drought conditions in 2017–2019 (BoM, 2021b), the South Australian Royal Commission investigation into the MDB reforms (SA Government, 2019b) and major fish kills in the lower Darling River in the summer of 2018/2019 (AAS, 2019; Vertessy et al., 2019) have increased concerns about the Basin Plan’s climate adaptation deficit (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme rainfall intensity in northern Australia and New Zealand has been increasing, particularly for shorter (sub-daily) duration and more extreme high rainfall (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme rainfall is projected to become more intense (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In urban areas, extreme rainfall intensity is projected to increase pluvial flood risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Modelling studies project increases in flood magnitudes in northern and eastern Australia and in western and northern New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is some recognition of the need for flood management and planning to adapt to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation to changing flood risks is currently mostly reactive and incremental in response to flood and heavy rainfall events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nevertheless, adaptation planning that is pre-emptive and incorporates uncertainties into flood projections is emerging (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts resulting from climate change are observed across sectors and the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the longer term, transformative adaptation, including land use change, will be required (Cradock-Henry et al., 2020a), both as a result of sectoral adaptations and mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Future adaptive capacity may be limited by declining institutional and community capacity resulting from high debt, unavailability of insurance, increasing regulatory requirements and funding mechanisms that lock in ongoing exposure to climate risk, creating mental health impacts (Rickards et al., 2014; Wiseman and Bardsley, 2016; McNamara and Buggy, 2017; McNamara et al., 2017; Moyle et al., 2017; Robinson et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2020; Yazd et al., 2020).11.3.4.1 Field Crops and Horticulture 11.3.4.1.1 Observed impacts Drought, heat and frost in recent decades have shown the vulnerability of Australian field crops and horticulture to climate change (Cai et al., 2014; Howden et al., 2014; CSIRO and BOM, 2015; Lobell et al., 2015; Hughes and Lawson, 2017; King et al., 2017; Webb et al., 2017; Harris et al., 2020) as recognised by policymakers (CoA, 2019a) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Winegrape maturity is projected to occur earlier due to warmer temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to shift agro-ecological zones (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shifts in agro-ecological zones present some opportunities, for example warming is projected to be beneficial for wine production in Tasmania (Harris et al., 2020).11.3.4.1.3 Adaptation Some farmers are adapting to drier and warmer conditions through more effective capture of non-growing-season rainfall (e.g., stubble retention to store soil water), improved water use efficiency and matching sowing times and cultivars to the environment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While there is potential for a greater proportion of agriculture to be located to northern Australia, there are significant and complex agronomic, environmental, institutional, financial and social challenges for successful transformation, including the risk of disruption (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme climatic events (droughts, floods and heatwaves) are projected to adversely impact productivity for livestock systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased heat stress in livestock is projected to decrease milk production and livestock reproduction rates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In New Zealand, an extra 5 (RCP2.6) to 7 (RCP8.5) moderate heat stress days per year are projected for 2046– 2060 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Elevated CO 2 is projected to increase forest growth if other biophysical factors are not limiting (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Forestry plantations are projected to be negatively impacted from increases in fire weather (Box 11.1), particularly in southern Australia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective management of the interactions between mitigation and adaptation policies can be achieved through governance and institutions, including Māori tribal organisations and sectoral adaptation, to ensure effective and continued carbon sequestration and storage as the climate changes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changes in ocean temperature and acidification and the downstream impacts on species distribution, productivity and catch are projected concerns (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)