rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
By 2100, annual runoff in one-third of the 56 large-scale glacierised catchments are projected to decline by over 10%, with the most significant reductions in Central Asia and the Andes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Cryosphere related changes in floods, landslides and water availability have the potential to lead to severe consequences for people, infrastructure and the economy in most mountain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2050, environmentally critical streamflow is projected to be affected in 42% to 79% of the world’s watersheds, causing negative impacts on freshwater ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased wildfire, combined with soil erosion due to deforestation, could degrade water supplies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected climate-driven water cycle changes, including increases in evapotranspiration, altered spatial patterns and amount of precipitation, and associated changes in groundwater recharge, runoff and streamflow, will impact terrestrial, freshwater, estuarine and coastal ecosystems and the transport of materials through the biogeochemical cycles, impacting humans and societal well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In Central and South America, disruption in water flows will significantly degrade ecosystems such as high-elevation wetlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under RCP6.0 and SSP2, the population that is projected to be exposed to extreme to exceptional low total water storage will reach up to 7% over the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be exposed to water scarcity at 2°C, and the risk doubles at 3°C, with significant economic losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Above 2°C, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought are projected to double over North Africa, the western Sahel and southern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
More droughts and extreme fire weather are projected in southern and eastern Australia (high confidence) and over most of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The projected increase in precipitation intensity (high confidence) will increase rain-generated local flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Direct flood damage is projected to increase by four to five times at 4°C compared to 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A higher sea level with storm surge further inland may create more severe coastal flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected intensifications of the hydrological cycle pose increasing risks, including potential doubling of flood risk and 1.2- to 1.8-fold increase in GDP loss due to flooding between 1.5°C and 3°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected increase in heavy rainfall events at all levels of warming in many regions in Africa will cause increasing exposure to pluvial and riverine flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A 1.5°C increase would result in an increase of 100–200% in the population affected by floods in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, 300% in Ecuador and 400% in Peru (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Agricultural water use will increase globally as a consequence of population increase and dietary changes, as well as increased water requirements due to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased floods and droughts, together with heat stress, will have an adverse impact on food availability and prices, resulting in increased undernourishment in South and Southeast Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Historically rare extreme sea level events will occur annu- ally by 2100, compounding these risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These risks will be compounded where coastal development prevents upshore migration of habitats or where terrestrial sediment inputs are limited and tidal ranges are small (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of these habitats disrupts associated ecosystem services, including wave-energy attenuation, habitat provision for biodiversity, climate mitigation and food and fuel resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Near- to mid-term sea level rise will also exacerbate coastal erosion and submersion and the salinisation of coastal groundwater, expanding the loss of many different coastal habitats, ecosystems and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
High population growth and urbanisation in low-lying coastal zones will be the major driver of increasing exposure to sea level rise in the coming decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2030, 108– 116 million people will be exposed to sea level rise in Africa (compared to 54 million in 2000), increasing to 190–245 million by 2060 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying cities and settlements will be at risk from coast-specific climate hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location and adaptation action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2100, compound and cascading risks will result in the submergence of some low-lying island states and damage to coastal heritage, livelihoods and infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
For example, in Europe, coastal flood damage is projected to increase at least 10-fold by the end of the 21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation and mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2100, 158–510 million people and USD7,919–12,739 billion in assets are projected to be exposed to the 1-in-100-year coastal floodplain under RCP4.5, and 176–880 million people and USD8,813–14,178 billion assets under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected impacts reach far beyond coastal cities and settlements, with damage to ports potentially severely compromising global supply chains and maritime trade, with local to global geopolitical and economic ramifications (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Compounded and cascading climate risks, such as tropical cyclone storm surge damage to coastal infrastructure and supply chain networks, are expected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changes in wave climate superimposed on sea level rise will significantly increase coastal flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The frequency, extent and duration of coastal flooding will significantly increase from 2050 (high confidence), unless coastal and marine ecosystems are able to naturally adapt to sea level rise through vertical growth and landward migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Permafrost thaw, sea level rise, and reduced sea ice protection is projected to damage or cause loss to many cultural heritage sites, settlements and livelihoods across the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Deltaic cities and settlements characterised by high inequality and informal settlements are especially vulnerable (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although risks are distributed across cities and settlements at all levels of economic development, wealthier and more urbanised coastal cities and settlements are more likely to be able to limit impacts and risk in the near- to mid-term through infrastructure resilience and coastal protection interventions, with highly uncertain prospects in many of these locations beyond 2100 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Prospects for enabling and contributing to climate resilient development thus vary markedly within and between coastal cities and settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Health risks will be differentiated by gender, age, income, social status and region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections under mid-range emissions scenarios show an additional 250,000 deaths per year by 2050 (compared to 1961–1990) due to malaria, heat, childhood undernutrition and diarrhoea (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mortality and morbidity will continue to escalate as exposures become more frequent and intense, putting additional strain on health and economic systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerable groups include young children (<5 years old), the elderly (>65 years old), pregnant women, Indigenous Peoples, those with pre-existing diseases, physical labourers and those in low socioeconomic conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Children and adolescents, particularly girls, as well as people with existing mental, physical and medical challenges, are particularly at risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mental health impacts are expected to arise from exposure to extreme weather events, displacement, migration, famine, malnutrition, degradation or destruction of health and social care systems, climate-related economic and social losses and anxiety and distress associated with worry about climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Globally, temperature- related mortality is projected to increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, urban heat-related excess deaths are projected to increase by about 300 yr-1 (low emission pathway) to 600 yr-1 (high emission pathway) during 2031–2080 relative to 142 yr-1 during 1971–2020 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reduced marine and freshwater fisheries catch potential is projected to increase malnutrition in East, West and Central Africa (medium to high confidence) and in subsistence- dependent communities across North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These projected changes will increase diet-related risk factors and related non-communicable diseases globally and increase undernutrition, stunting and related childhood mortality, particularly in Africa and Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to put 8 million (SSP1-6.0) to 80 million people (SSP3-6.0) at risk of hunger in mid-century, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These climate change impacts on nutrition could undermine progress towards the eradication of child undernutrition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Dengue vector ranges will increase in North America, Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa under RCP6 and RCP8.5, potentially putting another 2.25 billion people at risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher incidence rates of Lyme disease are projected for the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to increase malaria’s geographic distribution in endemic areas of sub-Saharan and southern Africa, Asia and South America (high confidence), exposing tens of millions more people to malaria, predominately in east and southern Africa, and up to hundreds of millions more exposed under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 2.1°C, thousands to tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are projected, mainly in central and east Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Morbidity from cholera will increase in central and east Africa (medium confidence), and increased schistosomiasis risk is projected for eastern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Asia and Africa, 1°C warming can cause a 7% increase in diarrhoea, an 8% increase in E. coli and a 3% to 11% increase in deaths (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Warming increases the risk of food-borne disease outbreaks, including Salmonella and Campylobacter infections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Warming supports the growth and geographical expansion of toxigenic fungi in crops (medium confidence) and potentially toxic marine and freshwater algae (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Food safety risks in fisheries and aquaculture are projected through harmful algal blooms (high confidence), pathogens (e.g., Vibrio) (high confidence), and human exposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Cardiovascular disease mortality could increase by 18.4%, 47.8% and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively under RCP4.5, and by 16.6%, 73.8% and 134% under RCP8.5 compared to the 1980s (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future risks of respiratory disease associated with aeroallergens and ozone exposure are expected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In many regions, the frequency and/or severity of floods, extreme storms and droughts is projected to increase in coming decades, es- pecially under high emissions scenarios, raising future risk of displacement in the most exposed areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under all global warming levels, some regions that are pres- ently densely populated will become unsafe or uninhabitable, with movement from these regions occurring autonomously or through planned relocation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future migration and displacement patterns in a changing climate will depend not only on the physical impacts of climate change, but also on future policies and planning at all scales of governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projecting the number of people migrating due to slow onset events is difficult due to the multi- causal nature of migration and the dominant role that socioeconomic factors have in determining migration responses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
High emissions/low development scenarios raise the potential for both increased rates of migration and displacement and larger involuntary immobile populations that are highly exposed to climatic risks but lack the means of moving to other locations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Uncertainties about socioeconomic development are reflected in the wide range of projected population displacements by 2050 in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia due to climate change, ranging from 31 million to 143 million people (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections of the number of people at risk of future displacement by sea level rise range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions by the end of this century, depending on the level of warmings and assumptions about exposure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Planned relocation will be increasingly required as climate change undermines livelihoods, safety and overall habitability, especially for coastal areas and small islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This will have implications for traditional livelihood practices, social cohesion and knowledge systems that have inherent value as intangible culture as well as introduce new risks for communities by amplifying existing and generating new vulnerabilities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future climate change may increase involuntary displacement, but severe impacts also undermine the capacity of households to use mobility as a coping strategy, causing high exposure to climate risks, with consequences for basic survival, health and well- being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to increase the adverse consequences of climate change since the financial consequences have led to a shift in priorities and constrain vulnerability reduction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under higher emissions scenarios and increasing climate hazards, the potential for societal risks also increases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Cultural heritage is already being impacted by climate change and variability, for example in Africa, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic, where heritage sites are exposed to future climate change risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change may produce severe risks to peace within this century through climate variability and extremes, especially in contexts marked by low economic development, high economic dependence on climate-sensitive activities, high or increasing social marginalisation and fragile governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The largest impacts are expected in weather-sensitive communities with low resilience to climate extremes and high prevalence of underlying risk factors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Trajectories that prioritise economic growth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower conflict risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In all cities and urban areas, projected risks faced by people from climate-driven impacts has increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Communities in informal settlements will have higher exposure and lower capacity to adapt (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most at risk are women and children who make up the majority populations of these settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks to critical physical infrastructure in cities can be severe and pervasive under higher warming levels, potentially resulting in compound and cascading risks, and can disrupt livelihoods both within and across cities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In coastal cities and settlements, risks to people and infrastructure will get progressively worse in a changing climate, sea level rise and with ongoing coastal development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Growth is most pronounced in smaller and medium- sized urban settlements of up to one million people (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These could amplify pre-existing stresses related to poverty, informality, exclusion and governance, such as in African cities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change increases heat stress risks in cities (high confidence) and amplifies the urban heat island across Asian cities at 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels, both substantially larger than under present climates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Urban population exposure to extreme heat in Africa is projected to increase from 2 billion person-days per year in 1985–2005 to 45 billion person-days by the 2060s (1.7°C global warming with low population growth) and to 95 billion person- days (2.8°C global warming with medium-high population growth) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Risks driven by flooding and droughts will also increase in cities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urban populations exposed to severe droughts in West Africa will increase (65.3±34.1 million) at 1.5°C warming and increase further at 2°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Higher risks from temperature and precipitation extremes are projected for almost all Asian cities under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Unplanned rapid urbanisation is a major driver of risk, particularly where increasing climate-driven risks affect key infrastructure and potentially result in compounding and cascading risks as cities expand into coastal and mountain regions prone to flooding or landslides that disrupt transportation networks, or where water and energy resources are inadequate to meet the needs of growing settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These infrastructure risks expand beyond city boundaries; climate-related transport and energy infrastructure damage is projected to be a significant financial burden for African countries, reaching tens to hundreds of billions of US dollars under moderate and high emissions scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected changes in both the hydrological cycle and the cryosphere will threaten urban water infrastructure and resource management in most regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
South and Southeast Asian coastal cities can experience significant increases in average annual economic losses between 2005 and 2050 due to flooding, with very high losses in east Asian cities under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In small islands, degraded terrestrial ecosystems decrease resource provision (e.g., potable water) and amplify the vulnerability of island inhabitants (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections suggest that 350 million (± 158.8 million) more people in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5°C warming and 410.7 million (± 213.5) at 2°C warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Climate change risks, including sea level rise, interact in intricate ways with non-climatic drivers of coastal change, such as land subsidence, continued infrastructure development in coastal floodplains, the rise of asset values and landward development adversely impacting coastal ecosystems, to shape future risk in coastal settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some recent estimates of projected global economic damage from climate impacts are higher than previous estimates and generally increase with global average temperature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, the spread in the estimates of the magnitude of this damage is substantial and does not allow for robust range to be established (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Non-market, non-economic damage and adverse impacts on livelihoods will be concentrated in regions and populations that are already more vulnerable (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Socioeconomic drivers and more inclusive development will largely determine the extent of this damage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In addition to market damage and disaster management costs, substantial costs of climate inaction are projected for human health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At higher levels of warming, climate impacts will pose risks to financial and insurance markets, especially if climate risks are incompletely internalised (medium confidence), with adverse implications for the stability of markets (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Much smaller effects are estimated for less warming, lower vulnerability and more adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regional estimates of GDP damage vary (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Severe risks are more likely in (typically hotter) developing countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For Africa, GDP damage is projected to be negative across models and approaches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
If future climate change under high emissions scenarios continues and increases risks, without strong adaptation measures, losses and damage will likely be concentrated among the poorest vulnerable populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher growth scenarios along higher warming levels increase exposure to hazards and assets at risk, such as sea level rise for coastal regions, which will have large implications for economic activities, including shipping and ports (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The high sensitivity of developing economies to climate impacts will pose increasing challenges to economic growth and performance, although projections depend as much or more on future socioeconomic development pathways and mitigation policies as on warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This wide range of effects underscore the impact of climate change on welfare and the adverse effects on vulnerable populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
They exacerbate existing stressors and constrain adaptation options (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Some compound and cascading impacts occur locally, some spread across sectors and socioeconomic and natural systems, while others can be driven by events in other regions, for instance through trade and flows of commodities and goods through supply chain linkages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, cascading effects on food webs have been reported in the Baltic due to detrimental oxygen levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Compound risks to health and food systems (especially in tropical regions) are projected from simultaneous reductions in food production across crops, livestock and fisheries (high confidence), heat-related loss of labour productivity in agriculture (high confidence), increased heat-related mortality (high confidence), contamination of seafood (high confidence), malnutrition (high confidence) and flooding from sea level rise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Malnourished populations will increase through direct impacts on food production with cascading impacts on food prices and household incomes, reducing access to safe and nutritious food (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Food safety will be undermined from increased food contamination for seafood with marine toxins from harmful algal blooms and chemical contaminants, worsening health risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme weather events result in cascading and compounding risks that affect health and are expected to increase with warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)