rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Immobility in the context of climate risks can reflect vulnerability and lack of agency but can also be a deliberate choice of people to maintain livelihoods, economic considerations and social and cultural attachments to place (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate hazards have affected armed conflict within countries (medium confidence), but the influence of climate is small compared to socioeconomic, political and cultural factors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate increases conflict risk by undermining food and water security, income and livelihoods in situations where there are large populations, weather-sensitive economic activities, weak institutions and high levels of poverty and inequality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In urban areas, food and water insecurity and inequitable access to services has been associated with civil unrest where there are weak institutions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate hazards are associated with increased violence against women, girls and vulnerable groups, and the experience of armed conflict is gendered (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation and mitigation projects implemented without consideration of local social dynamics have exacerbated non-violent conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
An excess of 250,000 deaths yr–1 by 2050 attributable to climate change is projected due to heat, undernutrition, malaria and diarrhoeal disease, with more than half of this excess mortality projected for Africa (compared to a 1961–1991 baseline period for a mid-range emissions scenario) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to significantly increase population exposure to heatwaves (very high confidence) and heat-related morbidity and mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, the impact of projected climate change on temperature-related mortality is expected to be a net increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heat related cardiovascular disease mortality is projected to increase by the end of this century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Strong geographical differences in heat-related mortality are projected to emerge later this century, mainly driven by population growth and aging in regions with tropical and subtropical climates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The burdens of several climate-sensitive food-borne, waterborne, and vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are projected to increase under climate change, assuming no additional adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The distribution and intensity of transmission of malaria is expected to decrease in some areas and increase in others, with increases projected mainly along the current edges of its geographic distribution in endemic areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Dengue risk will increase, with a larger spatio-temporal distribution in Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, potentially putting another 2.25 billion people at risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher incidence rates are projected for Lyme disease in the Northern Hemisphere (high confidence) and for transmission of Schistosoma mansoni in eastern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and climate change are projected to increase diet-related risk factors and related non-communicable diseasess globally and increase undernutrition, stunting and related childhood mortality particularly in Africa and Asia, with outcomes depending on the extent of mitigation and adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These projected changes are expected to slow progress towards eradication of child undernutrition and malnutrition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce the nutritional quality of wheat, rice and other major crops, potentially affecting millions of people at a doubling of carbon dioxide (very high confidence) {7.3.1}.Climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on well-being and to further threaten mental health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Mental health impacts are expected to arise from exposure to high temperatures, extreme weather events, displacement, malnutrition, conflict, climate-related economic and social losses, and anxiety and distress associated with worry about climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Future climate-related migration is expected to vary by region and over time, according to future climatic drivers, patterns of population growth, adaptive capacity of exposed populations and international development and migration policies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The wide range of potential outcomes is reflected in model projections of population displacements by 2050 in Latin America, sub- Saharan Africa and south Asia due to climate change, which vary from 31 million to 143 million people, depending on assumptions about future GHG emissions and socioeconomic development trajectories (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With every additional one degree Celsius of warming, the global risks of involuntary displacement due to flood events are projected to rise by approximately 50% (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
High emissions/low development scenarios raise the potential for higher levels of migration and involuntary displacement (high confidence) and increase the need for planned relocations and support for people exposed to climate extremes but lacking the means to move (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change may increase susceptibility to violent conflict, primarily intra-state conflicts, by strengthening climate-sensitive drivers of conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Future violent conflict risk is highly mediated by socioeconomic development trajectories (high confidence) and so trajectories that prioritise economic growth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower conflict risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Future climate change may exceed adaptation limits and generate new causal pathways not observed under current climate variability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Economic shocks are not included in many models of conflict risks currently used, and some projections do not incorporate known socioeconomic predictors of conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As such, future increases in conflict- related deaths with climate change have been estimated, but results are inconclusive (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Solutions Since AR5, the value of cross-sectoral collaboration to advance sustainable development has been more widely recognised, but despite acknowledgement of the importance of health adaptation as a key component, action has been slow (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Building climate-resilient health systems will require multi-sectoral, multi-system and collaborative efforts at all governance scales (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Globally, health systems are poorly resourced in general, and their capacity to respond to climate change is weak, with mental health support being particularly inadequate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The health sectors of some countries have focused on implementing incremental changes to policies and measures to fill the adaptation gap (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Targeted investments in health and other systems, including multi-sectoral, integrated approaches to protect against key health risks can effectively increase resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased investment in strengthening general health systems, along with targeted investments to enhance protection against specific climate-sensitive exposures (e.g., hazard early warning and response systems, and integrated vector control programmes for VBDs) will increase resilience if implemented to at least keep pace with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These short-term responses can be complemented by longer-term urban planning and design, including nature-based solutions (NbS) that mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the value of coordinated and multi-sectoral planning, social protection systems, safety nets and other capacities in societies to cope with a range of shocks and stresses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The pandemic has posed a severe shock to many socioeconomic systems, resulting in substantial changes in vulnerability and exposure of people to climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The pandemic emphasises the inter-connected and compound nature of risks, vulnerabilities, and responses to emergencies that are simultaneously local and global (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Pathways to climate resilient development can be pursued simultaneously with recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The COVID-19 pandemic has aggravated climate risks, demonstrated the global and local vulnerability to cascading shocks and illustrated the importance of integrated solutions that tackle ecosystem degradation and structural vulnerabilities in human societies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transitioning towards equitable, low-carbon societies has multiple benefits for health and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Benefits for health and well-being can be gained from wide-spread, equitable access to affordable renewable energy (high confidence); active transport (e.g., walking and cycling) (high confidence); green buildings and nature-based solutions, such as green and blue urban infrastructure (high confidence); and by transitioning to a low-carbon, well-being-oriented and equity-oriented economy consistent with the aims of the SDGs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Plant-rich diets consistent with international recommendations for healthy diets could contribute to lower GHG emissions while also generating health co-benefits, such as reducing ill health related to over-consumption of animal-based products (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reducing future risks of involuntary migration and displacement due to climate change is possible through cooperative international efforts to enhance institutional adaptive capacity and sustainable development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Institutional and cross-sectoral efforts to build adaptive capacity, coupled with policies aimed at ensuring safe and orderly movements of people within and between states, can form part of the CRDPs that reduce future risks of climate-related involuntary migration, displacement and immobility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In locations where permanent, government- assisted relocation becomes unavoidable, active involvement of local populations in planning and decision-making increases the likelihood of successful outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
People who live on small island states do not view relocation as an appropriate or desirable means of adapting to the impacts of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation and sustainable development build peace in conflict- prone regions by addressing the drivers of grievances that lead to conflict and vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Environmental peacebuilding (EP) through natural resource sharing, conflict-sensitive adaptation and climate-resilient peacebuilding offer promising avenues for addressing conflict risk, but their efficacy is still to be demonstrated through effective monitoring and evaluation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Formal institutional arrangements for natural resource management contribute to wider cooperation and peacebuilding (high confidence) and gender-based approaches provide under-utilised pathways to achieving sustainable peace (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Inclusion, cross-issue and cross-sectoral integration in policy and programming, and approaches that incorporate different geographical scales and work across national boundaries can support climate- resilient peace (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Specific observations of current impacts included the expansion of the geographical ranges of some diseases into previously unaffected areas and changes in the distributions of some food-, water- and vector- borne diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing future health risks were projected from injury, disease and death due to more intense heatwaves and fires (very high confidence), undernutrition in poor regions (high confidence), food- and waterborne diseases (very high confidence) and VBDs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
AR5 found that climate change is a multiplier of existing health vulnerabilities, including food insecurity and limited access to safe water, improved sanitation, healthcare and education, and that the most effective measures to reduce vulnerability in the near term are programmes that implement and improve basic public health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Opportunities for co-benefits from mitigation actions were identified through such actions as reducing local emissions of short-lived climate pollutants from energy systems (very high confidence) and expanding transport systems that promote active travel (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Access to green spaces was also closely associated with well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The exposure to hazards of populations, infrastructure, ecosystem capital, socioeconomic systems and cultural assets critical to health and well-being varies considerably across and within regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, pastoralists, agricultural laborers, poorer households, refugees, indigenous groups, women, children, the elderly and those who are socioeconomically marginalised (FAO et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019b) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Health, Well-Being, Migration and Conflict 7.2.1 Observed Impacts on Health and Well-Being Eleven categories of diseases and health outcomes have been identified in this assessment as being climate-sensitive through direct pathways (e.g., heat and floods) and indirect pathways mediated through natural and human systems and economic and social disruptions (e.g., disease vectors, allergens, air and water pollution, and food system disruption) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Figure 7.5 illustrates how climatic and non-climatic drivers and responses determine VBD outcomes.Evidence has increased since AR5 that the vectorial capacity has increased for dengue fever, malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases and that higher global average temperatures are making wider geographic areas more suitable for transmission (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Transmission rates of malaria are directly influenced by climatic and weather variables such as temperature, with non-climatic socioeconomic factors and health system responses counteracting the climatic drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Changing climatic patterns are facilitating the spread of CHIKV, Zika, Japanese encephalitis and Rift Valley Fever in Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity have been implicated as drivers of West Nile fever in southeastern Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change has contributed to the spread of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis, a corresponding increase in cases of Lyme disease in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ixodes ricinus, the primary vector in Europe for both Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis is sensitive to humidity and temperature (Daniel et al., 2018; Estrada- Peña and Fernández-Ruiz, 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since AR5 there is a growing body of evidence that increases in temperature (very high confidence), heavy rainfall (high confidence), flooding (medium confidence) and drought (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Heavy rainfall and higher than normal temperatures are associated with increased cholera risk in affected regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Heavy rainfall, warmer weather and drought are linked to increased risks for other GI infections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A strong association exists between increases in FBDs and high air and water temperatures and longer summer seasons (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
There is a strong association observed between the increase in average ambient temperature and increases in Salmonella infections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Significant associations exist between FBDs due to Campylobacter, precipitation and temperature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
COVID-19 and environmental connections Infectious diseases may emerge and spread through multiple climate-related avenues, including direct effects of climatic conditions on disease reproduction and transmission and various indirect effects, often interlinked with ecosystem degradation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is affecting the risk of emerging infectious diseases by contributing to factors that drive the movements of species, including vectors and reservoirs of diseases, into novel human populations and vice versa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Human-to-human transmission is the prominent driver in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than climatic drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The impact of COVID-19 containment measures resulted in a temporary reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced air pollution (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
During the pandemic, extreme weather and climate events such as droughts, storms, floods, wildfires and heatwaves continued, resulting in disastrous compounding impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Responses and implications for adaptation and climate resilient development The pandemic emphasises the inter-connected and compound nature of risks, vulnerabilities and responses to emergencies that are simultaneously local and global (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The management of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of scientific (including medical and epidemiological) expertise and the importance of fast, accurate and comprehensive data to inform policy decisions and to anticipate and manage risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is a considerable evidence base of specific actions that have co-benefits for reducing pandemic and climate change risks while enhancing social justice and biodiversity conservation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In particular, given their immense scale, COVID-19 recovery investments may offer an opportunity to contribute to climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) through a green, resilient, healthy and inclusive recovery (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, windows of opportunity to enable such transitions are only open for a limited period and need to be swiftly acted upon to effect change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In addition, heightened societal and political attention to one crisis often comes at the cost of other policy priorities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change affects the risk of CVD through high temperatures and extreme heat (assessed in Section 7.2.4.1) and through other mechanisms (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Several non-communicable respiratory diseases are climate sensitive based on their exposure pathways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Burdens of allergic disease, particularly allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma may be changing in response to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
People with chronic illnesses are at particular risk during and after extreme weather events due to treatment interruptions and lack of access to medication (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Heat continues to pose a significant health risk due to increases in exposure, changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population, mounting vulnerability and an increase in extreme heat events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some regions are already experiencing heat stress conditions approaching the upper limits of labour productivity and human survivability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Several lines of evidence point to a possible decrease in population sensitivity to heat, albeit mainly for high-income countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Excess deaths during extreme heat events occur predominantly in older individuals and are overwhelmingly cardiovascular in origin (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Heat- and cold-related health outcomes vary by location (Dialesandro et al., 2021; Hu et al., 2019; Phung et al., 2016), suggesting outcomes are highly moderated by socioeconomic, occupational and other non-climatic determinants of individual health and socioeconomic vulnerability (Åström et al., 2020; McGregor et al., 2017; McGregor et al., 2017; Schuster et al., 2017; Benmarhnia et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It is as likely as not that climate change has increased the current burden of disease from injuries related to extreme weather, particularly in low- income settings (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Consumption of mercury-contaminated fish has been found to be linked to neurological disorders due to methyl mercury poisoning (i.e., Minamata disease) that is associated with climate change-contaminant interactions that alter the bioaccumulation and biomagnification of toxic and fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (Alava et al., 2017) in seafood and marine mammals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There is an observable association between high temperatures and mental health decrements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Discrete climate hazards including storms (Kessler et al., 2008; Boscarino et al., 2013; Boscarino et al., 2017; Obradovich et al., 2018), floods (Baryshnikova and Pham, 2019), heatwaves, wildfires and drought (Hanigan et al., 2012; Carleton, 2017; Zhong et al., 2018; Charlson et al., 2021) have significant negative consequences for mental health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Mental health impacts can emerge as result of climate impacts on economic, social and food systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Anxiety about the potential risks of climate change and awareness of climate change itself can affect mental health even in the absence of direct impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Heat is one of the best-studied aspects of climate change observed to reduce well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Both heat and air pollution also impair human capabilities through a negative effect on cognitive performance (Taylor et al., 2016b) and even impair skills acquisition, reducing the ability to learn (Park et al., 2021) and affecting marginalised groups more strongly (Park et al., 2020), although findings are inconsistent and depend in part on the nature of the task (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Systematic reviews have found an association between higher ambient levels of fine airborne particles with cognitive impairment in the elderly and with behavioural problems (related to impulsivity and attention problems) in children (Power et al., 2016; Yorifuji et al., 2017; Younan et al., 2018; Zhao et al., 2018b) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A general theme across studies from all regions is that climate-related migration outcomes are diverse (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The diversity of potential migration and displacement outcomes reflects (a) the variable nature of climate hazards in terms of the rate of onset, intensity, duration, spatial extent and severity of damage caused to housing, infrastructure and livelihoods and (b) the wide range of social, economic, cultural, political and other non-climatic factors that influence exposure, vulnerability, adaptation options and the contexts in which migration decisions are made (Neumann and Hermans, 2015; McLeman, 2017; Barnett and McMichael, 2018; Cattaneo et al., 2019; Hoffmann et al., 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)