rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Weather events and climate conditions can act as direct drivers of migration and displacement (e.g., destruction of homes by tropical cyclones) and as indirect drivers (e.g., rural income losses and/or food insecurity due to heat- or drought-related crop failures that in turn generate new population movements) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The diversity of potential migration and displacement outcomes reflects the scale and physical impacts of specific climate hazard events and the wide range of social, economic, cultural, political and other non-climatic factors that influence exposure, vulnerability, adaptation options and the contexts in which migration decisions are made (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-related migration and displacement outcomes display high variability in terms of migrant success, often reflecting pre-existing socioeconomic conditions and household wealth (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climatic conditions, events and variability are important drivers of migration and displacement (high confidence) (Table MIGRATE.1 in Chapter 7), with migration responses to specific climate hazards being strongly influenced by economic, social, political and demographic processes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Involuntary displacement occurs when adaptation alternatives are exhausted or not viable and reflects non-climatic factors that constrain adaptive capacity and create high levels of exposure and vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is strong evidence that climatic disruptions to agricultural and other rural livelihoods can generate migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Specific climate events and conditions may cause migration to increase, decrease or flow in new directions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most climate-related migration and displacement observed currently takes place within countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The climate hazards most commonly associated with displacement are tropical cyclones and flooding in most regions, with droughts being an important driver in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of south Asia and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The additional impacts of climate change anticipated to generate future migration and displacement include mean sea level rise that increases flooding and saltwater contamination of soil and/or groundwater in low-lying coastal areas and small islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is growing evidence about the future prospects of immobile populations: groups and individuals that are unable or unwilling to move away from areas highly exposed to climatic hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Managed retreat and organised relocations of people from hazardous areas in recent years have proven to be politically and emotionally charged, socially disruptive and costly (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Policy interventions can remove barriers to and expand the alternatives for safe, orderly and regular migration that allows vulnerable people to adapt to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reducing the future risk of large-scale population displacements, including those requiring active humanitarian interventions and organised relocations of people, requires the international community to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and take further action to control future warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Populations in low-income countries and small-island states that have historically had low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are at particular risk of involuntary migration and displacement due to climate change, reinforcing the urgency for industrialised countries to continue lowering GHG emissions, to support adaptive capacity-building initiatives under the UNFCCC and to meet objectives expressed in the Global Compacts regarding safe, orderly and regular migration and the support and accommodation of displaced people (Sections 4.3.7, 4.5.7, 5.12.2, 7.4.5.5, 8.4.2; Box 8.1; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3).Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE (continued) Climate-related migration originates most often in rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, with migrant destinations usually being other rural areas or urban centres within their home countries (i.e., internal migration) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regional distribution of displacement events has been consistent throughout the IDMC data collection period (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Relative to their absolute population size, small island states experience a disproportionate risk of climate-related population displacements (Desai et al., 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Tropical cyclones and extreme storms are a particularly significant displacement risk in East and Southeast Asia, the Caribbean region, the Bay of Bengal region and southeast Africa (IDMC 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Riverine flood displacement can lead to increases or decreases in temporary or short-distance migration flows, depending on the local context (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The most common response to drought is an increase in short-distance, rural–urban migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These latter may be attributable to a sense of loss or fear (Schwerdtle et al., 2018; Torres and Casey, 2017) as well as due to the interruption of healthcare; occupational injuries; sleep deprivation; non-hygienic lodgings and insufficient sanitary facilities; heightened exposure to vector- and WBDs; vulnerability to psychosocial, sexual and reproductive issues; behavioural disorders; substance abuse; and violence (Farhat et al., 2018; Wickramage et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The chapter concluded that some of the factors that increase the risk of violent conflict within states are sensitive to climate change (medium evidence, medium agreement), that people living in places affected by violent conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under the high emissions scenario, climate change was projected to result in approximately 85 deaths equivalents per 100,000 population.Temperature increases are projected to exceed critical risk thresholds for six key climate-sensitive health outcomes, highlighting the criticality of building adaptive capacity in health systems and in other sectors that influence health and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Population heat exposure will increase under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Further, for North America and Europe, where rural depopulation is projected, the predominant driver of increases in exposure is urban growth (Jones et al., 2018).Comparisons of heatwave exposure for 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming for different SSPs indicate strong geographical contrasts in potential heatwave risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regional level assessments of changes in population heat exposure for Africa, Europe, the USA, China and India corroborate general findings at the global level, that the impact of warming is amplified under divergent regional development pathways (e.g., SSP4 – inequality) compared to those fostering sustainable development (e.g., SSP1 – sustainability) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For some regions, such as Europe, changes in exposure are projected to be largely a consequence of climate change, while for others, such as Africa and to a lesser extent Asia, Oceania, North America and South America, the interactive effects of demographic and climate change are projected to be important (Jones et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2017; Russo et al., 2016; Ma and Yuan, 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Estimates of heat-related mortality based solely on changes in temperature point to elevated levels of global and regional level mortality compared to the present, with the magnitude of this increasing from RCP4.5 through to RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Further support comes from the projection that heat-related health impacts for a 2°C increase in global temperatures will be greater than those for 1.5°C warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Estimates of future mortality that incorporate adaptation in addition to temperature change point to increases in heat-related mortality under global warming, albeit at lower levels than the case of no adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Whether adaptation is considered or not, the consensus is Central and South America, southern Europe, southern and Southeast Asia and Africa will be the most affected by climate change in terms of heat-related mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Similarly, projections of the impacts of future heat on occupational health, worker productivity and workability point to these regions as problematic under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This accords with the findings from independent projections of population heat exposure as outlined above (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The effect of climate change on productivity is projected to reduce GDP at a range of geographical scales (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future increases in heat-related deaths are expected to outweigh those related to cold (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heat risks are expected to be greater in urban areas due to changes in regional heat exacerbated by ‘heat island’ effects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is a high likelihood that climate change will contribute to increased distributional range and vectorial capacity of malaria vectors in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Malaria infections have significant potential to increase in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, with risk varying according to the warming scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Rising temperatures are likely to cause poleward shifts and overall expansion in the distribution of mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, the principal vectors of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is expected to increase dengue risk and facilitate its global spread, with the risk being greatest under high emissions scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Zika virus transmits under different temperature optimums than does dengue, suggesting environmental suitability for Zika transmission could expand with future warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Climate change can be expected to continue to contribute to the geographical spread of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis (high confidence) and the spread of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease vector Ixodes ricinus in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change is projected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to change the distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa and Asia (high confidence), with a possible increase in global land area suitable for transmission (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change is expected to increase future health risks associated with a range of other WBDs and parasites, with effects varying by region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The risk of Campylobacteriosis and other enteric pathogens could rise in regions where heavy precipitation events or flooding are projected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Demographic trends in aging and more vulnerable population are likely to be important determinants of future air quality—a human health climate penalty (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections indicate that emission reduction scenarios consistent with stabilisation of global temperature change at 2°C or below would yield substantial co-benefits for air quality-related health outcomes (Chowdhury et al., 2018b; von Schneidemesser et al., 2020; Silva et al., 2016c; Markandya et al., 2018; Orru et al., 2019; Shindell et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The burden of disease associated with aeroallergens is anticipated to grow due to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The nutritional density, including protein content, micronutrients and B-vitamins, of wheat, rice, barley and other important food crops is negatively affected by higher CO 2 concentrations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate change impacts on oceans could generate increased risks of ciguatera poisoning in some regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, changes (Hayes and Poland, 2018) in extreme events due to climate change, including floods (Baryshnikova, 2019), droughts (Carleton, 2017) and hurricanes (Kessler et al., 2008; Boscarino et al., 2013, Boscarino et al., 2017; Obradovich et al., 2018), which are projected to increase due to climate change, directly worsen mental health and well-being and increase anxiety (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Human behaviours and systems will be disrupted by climate change in a myriad of ways, and the potential consequences for mental health and well-being are correspondingly large in number and complex in mechanism (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Broad societal outcomes such as economic unrest, political conflict or governmental dysfunction assessed in Section 7.3.5 may undermine the mental health of populations in the future (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The most common drivers of observed climate- related migration and displacement are extreme storms (particularly tropical cyclones), floods and droughts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In low-lying coastal areas of most regions, future increases in mean sea levels will amplify the impacts of coastal hazards on settlements, including erosion, inland penetration of storm surges and groundwater contamination by salt water, and eventually lead to inundation of very low-lying coastal settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent evidence adds further support for such conclusions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future violent conflict risk is highly mediated by socioeconomic development trajectories (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As documented across this chapter, there is a large adaptation deficit for health and well-being, with climate change causing avoidable injuries, illnesses, disabilities, diseases and deaths (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Current global investments in health adaptation are insufficient to protect the health of populations and communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is increased understanding of exposure and vulnerabilities to climate variability and change, the capacities to manage the health risks, the effectiveness of adaptation (including a growing number of lessons learned and best practices), and the co- benefits of mitigation policies and technologies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effectively preparing for and managing the health risks of climate change requires considering the multiple interacting sectors that affect population health and the effective functioning of health systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective health risk management incorporates the magnitude and pattern of future climate risks as well as potential changes in factors that determine vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards, such as determinants of healthcare access, demographic shifts, urbanisation patterns and changes in ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Increased investment in strengthening general health systems, along with targeted investments to enhance protection against specific climate-sensitive exposures (e.g., hazard early warning and response systems and integrated vector control programmes for VBDs) will increase resilience if implemented to at least keep pace with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Investments to address the social determinants of health can reduce inequities and increase resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability, adaptation and capacity assessments include consideration of the feasibility and effectiveness of priority health adaptation options and can help decision makers identify strategies for enhancing adaptation feasibility in specific contexts.7.4.2.3 Adaptation Options for Vector-borne, Water-borne and Food-Borne Diseases Integrated vector control approaches are crucial to effectively manage the geographic spread, distribution and transmission of VBDs associated with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation options for climate-related risks for WBDs and FBDs are strongly associated with wider, multi-sectoral initiatives to improve sustainable development in low-income communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While well-designed and operationalisable HAPs possess the potential to reduce the likelihood of mortality from extreme heat events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Evaluations of heatwave early warning systems as a component within HAPs show inconsistent results in terms of their impact on predicting mortality rates (Nitschke et al., 2016; Benmarhnia et al., 2016; Heo et al., 2019a; Heo et al., 2019b; Ragettli and Roosli, 2019; Martinez et al., 2019; De’Donato et al., 2018; Weinberger et al., 2018b), indicating climate-based heat warning systems, which use a range of heat stress metrics (Schwingshackl et al., 2021), are not sufficient as a stand-alone approach to heat risk management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To support HAP and heat risk-related policy development, identification and mapping of heat vulnerability ‘hot spots’ within urban areas have been proposed (Chen et al., 2019; Hatvani-Kovacs et al., 2018) A multi-sectoral approach, including the engagement of a range of stakeholders will likely benefit the response to longer-term heat risks through the implementation of measures such as climate- sensitive urban design and planning that mitigates UHI effects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation actions include access to healthy, affordable diverse diets from sustainable food systems (high confidence); a combination of access to health— including maternal, child and reproductive health— and nutrition services, water and sanitation (high confidence); access to nutrition- sensitive and shock-responsive social protection (high confidence); and early warning systems (high agreement), risk sharing, transfer, and risk reduction schemes such as index-based weather insurance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Common enablers across adaptation actions that enhance the effectiveness and feasibility of the adaptation include: education, women’s and girls’ empowerment (high confidence), rights-based governance and peacebuilding social cohesion initiatives such as the framework of the Humanitarian Development and Peace Nexus (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Nutrition-sensitive and integrated agroecological farming systems offer opportunities to increase dietary diversity at household levels while building local resilience to climate-related food insecurity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Because mental health is fundamentally inter-twined with social and economic well-being, adaptation for climate-related mental health risks benefits from wider multi-sectoral initiatives to enhance well- being, with the potential for co-benefits to emerge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptive urban design that provides access to healthy natural spaces—an option for reducing risks associated with heat stress—also promotes social cohesion and mitigates mental health challenges (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
An effective early warning system for malaria was implemented in the Amhara region of Ethiopia (Merkord et al., 2017).Early warning systems are effective at detecting and potentially reducing food security and nutrition risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Financial investments to develop early warning systems are cost-effective and reduce human suffering (Choularton and Krishnamurthy, 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
No universal standardised approach exists for monitoring or evaluating adaptation activities in the health sector (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Successful adaptation to the health impacts of climate change in Indigenous Peoples requires recognition of their rights to self-determination, focusing on indigenous conceptualisations of well-being, prioritising Indigenous knowledge and understanding the broader agenda of decolonisation, health and human rights (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate resilient development pursued in these other sectors, and in cooperation with the health sector, simultaneously increases the potential for adaptation and climate resilience in terms of health and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Efficacy beliefs, social norms and subjective resilience also affect adaptation behaviour (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Subsequent research indicates that the circumstances under which migration occurs and the degree of agency under which household migration decisions are made are important determinants of whether migration outcomes are successful in terms of advancing the well- being of the household and providing benefits to sending and receiving communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Attitudes of residents in migrant-receiving areas with respect to climate-related migration warrant consideration when formulating adaptation policy (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Disruptive and expensive relocations of low-lying coastal settlements in many regions would become increasingly necessary in coming decades under high levels of warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Formal institutional arrangements for natural resource management can contribute to transnational cooperation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recognising that conflict results from underlying vulnerabilities, development that reduces vulnerability offers the best win-win option for building sustainable, climate- resilient peace rather than specific security-focused interventions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Given the overlap in sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and co-pollutants in energy systems, strategies that pursue GHG emission reductions and improvements in energy efficiency hold significant potential health co-benefits through air pollution emission reductions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transitioning to affordable clean energy sources for all presents opportunities for substantial well-being, health, and equity co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transformative approaches that reduce climate-related risks and deliver enhanced social inclusion and development opportunities for the urban poor are most likely where local governments act in partnership with local communities and other civil society actors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Multi-level leadership, institutional capacity and financial resources to support inclusive adaptation in the context of multiple pressures and inter-connected risks can help ensure that the additional 2.5 billion people projected to live in urban areas by 2050 are less exposed to climate-related hazards and contribute less to global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Stimulating active mobility (walking and bicycling) can bring physical and mental health benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urban green and blue spaces contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation and improve physical and mental health and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate adaptation and mitigation policies in the building sector offer multiple well-being and health co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shifting to sustainable food systems that provide affordable, diverse and plant-rich diets with moderate quantities of GHG-intensive animal protein can bring health co-benefits and substantially reduce GHG emissions, especially in high income countries and where ill health related to overconsumption of animal-based products is prevalent (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Transforming the food system by limiting the demand for GHG-intensive animal foods, reducing food over-consumption and transitioning to nutritious, plant-rich diets can have significant co-benefits to health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)