rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
In North American Arctic marine systems, rapid warming is significant, with cascading impacts beyond polar regions (CCP6), and presents limited opportunities (tourism, shipping, extractive) but high risks (shipping, fishing industries, Indigenous subsistence and cultural activities) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coral reefs in the Gulf of Mexico and along the coasts of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula are facing increasing risk of bleaching and mortality from warming ocean waters interacting with non-climate stressors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Without mitigation to keep surface temperatures below a 2°C increase by the end of the century, up to 99% of coral reefs will be lost; however, 95% of reefs will still be lost even if warming is kept below 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level rise has led to flooding, erosion and damage to infrastructure along the western Gulf of Mexico, the southeast US coasts and the southern coast of the Gulf of St Lawrence (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Future seawater CO 2 levels have been shown in laboratory studies to negatively impact Pacific and Atlantic squid, bivalve, crab and fish species (Pacific cod), and indirectly alter food-web dynamics (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Open ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) are expanding in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific California Current and tropical oceans due to warming waters, stratification and changes in precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The OMZs and hypoxic events are projected to increase over the next century and may limit where fish can move (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Favourable conditions for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have expanded due to warming, more frequent extreme weather events (Gobler et al., 2017; Pershing et al., 2018; Trainer et al., 2019) and increased stratification, CO 2 concentration and nutrient inputs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Attribution of Sargassum blooms to climate change is still tenuous and complicated by multiple drivers and few observational data sources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Ocean management that utilises a portfolio of nested, multi-scale, climate-informed and ecosystem-based management approaches in North American waters can increase the resilience of marine ecosystems by addressing multiple stressors simultaneously (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Dynamic ocean management policies may improve resilience of marine species and ecosystems to climate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation will be impeded in cases where there are conflicts over competing interests or unintended consequences of uncoordinated efforts, heightening the importance of cooperative, scenario-based water resource planning and governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Damages stem from extremity of the event and prior land-use and infrastructure decisions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts have intensified tensions among competing water-use interests and accelerated depletion of groundwater resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate trends are affecting riverine, lake and reservoir water quality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Households and communities dependent on substandard wells, unimproved water sources or deficient water provision systems are more exposed than others to experience climate- related impairment of drinking water quality (Section 14.5.6.5; Allaire et al., 2018; Baeza et al., 2018; California State Water Resources Control Board, 2021; Navarro-Espinoza et al., 2021; Water and Tribes Initiative, 2021).14.5.3.2 Projected Impacts and Risks Climate change is projected to amplify current trends in water resource impacts, potentially reducing water supply security, impairing water quality and increasing flood hazards to varying degrees across North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected long-term reduction in water availability in the southwest US and northern Mexico (e.g., from the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers) will have substantial ecological and economic impacts given the region’s heavy water demands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Other aquifers, especially those farther north, face uncertain or possibly increasing recharge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected changes in temperature and precipitation present direct risks to North American water quality, varying with regional and watershed contexts (Chapra et al., 2017; Coffey et al., 2019; Paul et al., 2019a), and related to streamflow, population growth (Duran-Encalada et al., 2017) and land-use practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These changes directly influence crop productivity, quality and market price (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some crop loss events are partially attributed to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Without adaptation, climate change is projected to reduce overall yields of important North American crops (e.g., wheat, maize, soybeans) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming and heat extremes will delay or prevent chill accumulation, affecting perennial crop development (e.g., fruit set failure), yield (e.g., walnuts, pistachios, stone fruit) and quality (e.g., grapes) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Warming will alter the length of growing seasons of cold- season crops (e.g., broccoli, lettuce) and will shift suitability ranges of warm-season California crops (e.g., tomatoes) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increasing atmospheric CO 2 will enhance yields yet reduce nutrient content of many crops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Crop pest and pathogen outbreaks are expected to worsen under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is anticipated to cause declines in livestock production across North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected aridification reduces forage production in the southwest USA and northern Mexico (high confidence) (Polley et al., 2013; Reeves et al., 2014; Cooley, 2016; Bradford et al., 2020) and transforms grasslands into woody shrublands (Briske et al., 2015; Murray-Tortarolo et al., 2018), while warmer and wetter conditions in the northern regions (CA-PR, US-NW, US-NP) may enhance rangeland production by extending growing seasons (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased CO 2 will enhance production (medium confidence) but reduce forage quality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-change impacts on forests (Section 14.5.1; see Box 14.2) may affect timber production by altering tree species distributions, productivity, and wildfire and insect disturbances (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate-driven declines in productivity are widespread (high confidence) (Figure 14.6), although a few increases are observed in northern regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Redistribution of species has increased travel distance to fishing grounds, shifted stocks across regulatory and international boundaries, and increased interactions with protected species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate shocks have reduced yield and increased instability in fishery revenue (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Declines in yield and poleward stock redistributions (an average of ~20.6 km per decade) are expected to continue under climate change and increase in magnitude with atmospheric carbon (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Expanding HABs, pathogens and altered ocean chemistry (OA and dissolved oxygen) will reduce yields and increase closures of fisheries along all North American coasts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Warming waters and OA have impacted aquaculture production in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ecosystem-based practices and sustainable intensification (increasing yields while minimising resource demand and ecosystem impacts) (Cassman and Grassini, 2020; Rockström et al., 2021) will help the sector meet food production demands under climate change (medium confidence), but effectiveness generally declines and is less certain after 2050 in scenarios without carbon mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Across the sector, successful adaptation is underpinned by approaches that meaningfully consider the coupled social–ecological networks around food and fibre production and value IK (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Integrated modelling, participatory planning and inclusive decision making promote effective and equitable adaptation responses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Irrigation is an effective adaptation strategy in key agricultural areas (Miller, 2017; Lund et al., 2018) and could stabilise food security in rain-fed regions (e.g., southeast Mexico) (Spring, 2014); water allocation must balance multiple needs and rights (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate-informed and standardised aquaculture governance, and increased coordination with fishery and coastal management, is needed for climate resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These environmental conditions also stress natural assets (e.g., urban forests, wetlands, household gardens, green walls) and performance of green infrastructure leading to higher operation and maintenance costs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change (RCP8.5) interacting with urban form, development and systemic racism (Schell et al., 2020; Hsu et al., 2021) could worsen risks from extreme heat in North American cities, especially where there is limited adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Canada, SLR is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme high-water-level events (Greenan et al., 2018) and to create widespread impacts on natural and human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Barriers to adaptation include challenges related to the local physical and environmental setting, effects of colonialism and racism, socioeconomic attributes of the population, institutional frameworks and competing interests of city stakeholders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The current scale of adaptation is generally not commensurate with reducing risks from projected climatic hazards, although resources exist that provide guidance and examples of effective adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Public health measures to address extreme heat events are more common across North America, with a focus on vulnerable populations (e.g., City of Toronto, 2019) and innovative approaches for reaching at-risk populations with an overarching intent of prevention (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Other adaptation responses to reduce temperature effects include modifying structures (roofs, engineered materials) and the urban landscape through green infrastructure (e.g., urban trees, wetlands, green roofs), which increases climate resilience and quality of life by reducing urban heat island effects, while additionally improving air quality, capturing stormwater and delivering other co-benefits to the community (e.g., access to food, connection to nature, social connectivity) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation planning and implementation to address SLR and coastal flooding have been initiated across many cities and settlements in North America, but preparedness varies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation to the risks of wildland–urban interface fire is underway (see Box 14.2; Kovacs et al., 2020), but the scope of adaptation required to sufficiently minimise wildfire risks for cities and settlements across North America has not been assessed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Cities and settlements in North America can be susceptible to multiple flooding hazards (i.e., coastal SLR, pluvial or fluvial flooding); each presents unique adaptation challenges that can be addressed through structural (e.g., armouring coastlines, reservoirs, levees, floodgates; New York City commuter tunnels) and non-structural approaches (e.g., land- use planning and zoning, expanding green infrastructure; Chetumal, Mexico) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The civil engineering profession is playing an active role in facilitating an understanding of risks and prioritisation of adaptation investments in communities (Tye and Giovannettone, 2021).The high concentration of valuable assets in cities requires mechanisms to facilitate replacement of assets including use of existing and proposed insurance mechanisms (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Rising temperatures are projected to increase heat-related mortality across emission scenarios this century in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Warming temperatures are also projected to increase heat-related morbidity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While heat-related mortality is projected to increase across emissions scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways, fewer deaths are projected under both lower-emissions scenarios and higher-adaptation scenarios in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
It is important to differentiate between Table 14.5 | A summary of adaptation options for different health outcomes in North America Health outcome Adaptation options Heat-related mortality and morbidityFuture temperature-related health impacts can be reduced by adaptation measures (Petkova et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2014; Mills et al., 2015b; Kingsley et al., 2016; Anderson et al., 2018b; Marsha et al., 2018; Morefield et al., 2018), including more effective warning and response systems and building designs, enhanced pollution controls, urban planning strategies and resilient health infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Water-borne diseaseClimate change is projected to increase water-borne disease risks (medium confidence), particularly in areas with ageing water and wastewater infrastructure in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Food-borne diseaseFood safety programmes play important roles in reducing the risk of climate-related food-borne disease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warmer temperatures do not always equate to lower winter mortality: many cold-related deaths do not occur during the coldest times of year or in the coldest places (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to increase disease spread into new geographic regions, lengthen the season of disease transmission and increase tick-borne disease risk in North America across emissions scenarios throughout this century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate change is projected to impact the distribution, abundance and infection rates of mosquitoes in North America (high confidence), which will increase risk of mosquito-borne diseases including West Nile virus, chikungunya and dengue (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In North America, stormwater and water treatment infrastructure play important roles in reducing water-borne disease risk during precipitation events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to increase food safety risks (medium confidence); however, the actual burden of food-borne disease will depend on the efficacy of public health interventions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to increase human food-borne exposure to chemical contaminants (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate-related food-borne disease risks vary temporally, and are influenced, in part, by food availability, accessibility, preparation and preferences (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Substitution of seafood with non-traditional foods (e.g., chicken, canned tuna) would not replace the projected nutrients lost (Marushka et al., 2019), challenging assumptions that market food substitutions could be effective adaptation strategies for Indigenous Peoples 14.5.6.8 Mental Health and Wellness Climate change has had, and will continue to have, negative impacts on mental health in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Season length for snowmobiling and cross-country skiing is projected to decrease more dramatically (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The risk of a major accident or incident among Arctic-going yachts and some expedition passenger vessels is very high relative to other ships (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, the cascading nature of climate impacts related to trade (see Box 14.5), labour productivity (Section 14.5.8.1.5) and infrastructure (Section 14.5.8.1.2) means that there is no economic sector in North America that will be unaffected by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Operational efficiency and human safety at mining and energy production sites is expected to be adversely affected by increases in extreme events (Section 14.2), including storms, heavy rains, riverine flooding and wildfires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
General remoteness of many mining sites (especially in the North American Arctic) exacerbates risks related to emergency responses to extreme events such as wildfire (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Permafrost thaw in northern North America will result in increased construction and reconstruction needs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate risks may create shocks to the trade system by damaging infrastructure and disrupting supply chains in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Due to the transnational nature of trade, extreme weather disruptions in one region are likely to lead to cascading effects in other regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-change impacts may alter current trade practices and patterns with implications for regional economic development in North America, especially in the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Effective and equitable trade policies can act as important adaptation strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These differences have been often underpinned by social and economic inequalities and have been observed between households, social groups, rural and urban communities, and Indigenous Peoples (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These vulnerabilities have also been observed to contribute to maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Social and economic trends and development will determine near-term impacts on livelihoods from projected climate hazards; livelihoods will also adapt to the risks and opportunities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Actions to enhance the livelihoods of the most vulnerable social groups in North America will lessen the impacts of climate hazards on them (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Past and current patterns of development in North America have propagated and perpetuated vulnerabilities that have created differential impacts on livelihoods from climate hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Direct, indirect and non-market economic damages from extreme events have increased in some parts of North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The effect of climate change has been identified in aggregate measures of economic performance, such as GDP, in North America and globally (medium confidence), although the magnitude of these changes is difficult to constrain (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change has been observed to affect national GDP level and economic growth (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Projected Risks Projections of market and non-market economic damages demonstrate the substantial economic risks of climate impacts associated with high-temperature pathways (RCP8.5) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Market and non-market risks and costs will not be experienced equally across countries, sectors and regions in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Economics of Adaptation Opportunities Economic analysis can help reveal where the avoided economic damages are greater than the costs of adaptation, improving decision making for adaptation planning and efforts in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate impacts have damaged livelihoods across North America, especially those of marginalised people (high confidence) and deepened inequalities for these groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Migration and mobility have been an important part of livelihoods in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Temporary or semi- permanent labour migration, generally followed by remittances, has been an important part of livelihoods for rural areas in Mexico (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Pre-existing social vulnerabilities have also led to forced displacement from extreme weather events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Improving projections of future economic risk and damages facilitates the development of tools that can be used for economic analysis of climate policies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Livelihoods, however, can be undermined by many of the projected climate risks with the impacts depending on adaptive capacity and adaptation limits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future climate hazards will deepen patterns of social inequality as vulnerable groups may also experience intersecting impacts that adversely affect their livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Displacement, migration and resettlement will increase along higher- emission pathways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Many actions that enhance and promote resilient livelihoods can have substantial benefit for adaptation to climate hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Migration is a common adaptation strategy to maintain and diversify people’s livelihoods and will continue to play an important role when households manage climate and social risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
If social relationships prevailing now and in the recent past continue, projections show future crime rates in the USA and Mexico increasing with increasing temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
While there is expert scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, rhetoric, misinformation and politicisation of science have contributed to misperceptions, polarisation on the severity of impacts and risks to society, indecision and delayed action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR2: Risk to life, safety and property from intensifying extreme events Human life and safety across North America, and especially along the coasts of Mexico, the Hawaiian Islands, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Canada and southeast USA, will be placed at risk from SLR and severe storms and hurricanes, even at 1.5°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
KR3: Cumulative damages from climate hazards which pose a substantial risk to economic well-being and shared prosperity Climate-change impacts are projected to cause large market and non- market damages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR4: Risk of degradation of marine and coastal ecosystems, including loss of biodiversity, function and related services with cascading effects for communities and livelihoods Ocean warming will increase the frequency and intensity of MHWs (see Box 14.3), accelerate unprecedented rates of sea ice loss, and alter ocean circulation, chemistry and nutrient cycling in ways that profoundly impact marine productivity, biodiversity and food webs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Collectively these impacts pose a risk to nearshore ecological and human systems (high confidence), increasing the probability of phenological mismatches, large-scale redistribution of species, and species population declines (Section 14.5.4) with cascading impacts that strain cultural and economic systems reliant on marine productivity across North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR5: Risk to major terrestrial ecosystems leading to disruptions of species, ecosystems and their services Major risks to terrestrial ecosystems across North America, such as semiarid landscapes, rangelands, boreal and temperate forests, and Arctic tundra, include significant ecosystem transformations and shifts in species abundances and ranges, and major vegetation types (e.g., transitions from forests to grasslands), with cascading implications for regional biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Warming increases the risk of permafrost thaw with propagating impacts on species and communities in the Canadian and US Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These changes will reduce services provided by terrestrial ecosystems, including timber yields and carbon sequestration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)