rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Current unsustainable development patterns are increasing exposure of ecosystems and people to climate hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Unsustainable land-use and land cover change, unsustainable use of natural resources, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and their interactions, adversely affect the capacities of ecosystems, societies, communities and individuals to adapt to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of ecosystems and their services has cascading and long-term impacts on people globally, especially for Indigenous Peoples and local communities who are directly dependent on ecosystems, to meet basic needs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, and even within protected areas, unsustainable use of natural resources, habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem damage by pollutants increase ecosystem vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In most protected areas, there is insufficient stewardship to contribute to reducing damage from, or increasing resilience to, climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected climate change, combined with non-climatic drivers, will cause loss and degradation of much of the world’s forests (high confidence), coral reefs and low-lying coastal wetlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
While agricultural development contributes to food security, unsustainable agricultural expansion, driven in part by unbalanced diets32, increases ecosystem and human vulnerability and leads to competition for land and/or water resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Global hotspots of high human vulnerability are found particularly in West-, Central- and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Between 2010–2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability at different spatial levels is exacerbated by inequity and marginalization linked to gender, ethnicity, low income or combinations thereof (high confidence), especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Present development challenges causing high vulnerability are influenced by historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In rural areas vulnerability will be heightened by compounding processes including high emigration, reduced habitability and high reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Key infrastructure systems including sanitation, water, health, transport, communications and energy will be increasingly vulnerable if design standards do not account for changing climate conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability will also rapidly rise in low-lying Small Island Developing States and atolls in the context of sea level rise and in some mountain regions, already characterised by high vulnerability due to high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, rising population displacement, the accelerating loss of ecosystem services and limited adaptive capacities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future exposure to climatic hazards is also increasing globally due to socioeconomic development trends including migration, growing inequality and urbanization (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The level of risk will depend on concurrent near- term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development and adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Near-term risks for biodiversity loss are moderate to high in forest ecosystems (medium confidence), kelp and seagrass ecosystems (high to very high confidence), and high to very high in Arctic sea-ice and terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) and warm-water coral reefs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Continued and accelerating sea level rise will encroach on coastal settlements and infrastructure (high confidence) and commit low-lying coastal ecosystems to submergence and loss (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
If trends in urbanisation in exposed areas continue, this will exacerbate the impacts, with more challenges where energy, water and other services are constrained (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The number of people at risk from climate change and associated loss of biodiversity will progressively increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Violent conflict and, separately, migration patterns, in the near-term will be driven by socioeconomic conditions and governance more than by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regional differences exist, and risks are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks are also high where multiple non-climate drivers persist or where vulnerability is otherwise elevated (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many of these risks are unavoidable in the near-term, irrespective of emissions scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Several risks can be moderated with adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Between 1.2°C and 4.5°C global warming level very high risks emerge in all five RFCs compared to just two RFCs in AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Two of these transitions from high to very high risk are associated with near-term warming: risks to unique and threatened systems at a median value of 1.5 [1.2 to 2.0] °C (high confidence) and risks associated with extreme weather events at a median value of 2.0 [1.8 to 2.5] °C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Some key risks contributing to the RFCs are projected to lead to widespread, pervasive, and potentially irreversible impacts at global warming levels of 1.5–2°C if exposure and vulnerability are high and adaptation is low (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In ocean and coastal ecosystems, risk of biodiversity loss ranges between moderate and very high by 1.5°C global warming level and is moderate to very high by 2°C but with more ecosystems at high and very high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Very high extinction risk for endemic species in biodiversity hotspots is projected to at least double from 2% between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels and to increase at least tenfold if warming rises from 1.5°C to 3°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At approximately 2°C global warming, snowmelt water availability for irrigation is projected to decline in some snowmelt dependent river basins by up to 20%, and global glacier mass loss of 18 ± 13% is projected to diminish water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and human settlements in the mid- to long-term, with these changes projected to double with 4°C global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In Small Islands, groundwater availability is threatened by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Changes to streamflow magnitude, timing and associated extremes are projected to adversely impact freshwater ecosystems in many watersheds by the mid- to long-term across all assessed scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected increases in direct flood damages are higher by 1.4 to 2 times at 2°C and 2.5 to 3.9 times at 3°C compared to 1.5°C global warming without adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At global warming of 4°C, approximately 10% of the global land area is projected to face increases in both extreme high and low river flows in the same location, with implications for planning for all water use sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Challenges for water management will be exacerbated in the near, mid and long term, depending on the magnitude, rate and regional details of future climate change and will be particularly challenging for regions with constrained resources for water management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increases in frequency, intensity and severity of droughts, floods and heatwaves, and continued sea level rise will increase risks to food security (high confidence) in vulnerable regions from moderate to high between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming level, with no or low levels of adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 2°C or higher global warming level in the mid-term, food security risks due to climate change will be more severe, leading to malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiencies, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central and South America and Small Islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Global warming will progressively weaken soil health and ecosystem services such as pollination, increase pressure from pests and diseases, and reduce marine animal biomass, undermining food productivity in many regions on land and in the ocean (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 3°C or higher global warming level in the long term, areas exposed to climate-related hazards will expand substantially compared with 2°C or lower global warming level (high confidence), exacerbating regional disparity in food security risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, population exposure to heatwaves will continue to increase with additional warming, with strong geographical differences in heat-related mortality without additional adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate-sensitive food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne disease risks are projected to increase under all levels of warming without additional adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In particular, dengue risk will increase with longer seasons and a wider geographic distribution in Asia, Europe, Central and South America and sub-Saharan Africa, potentially putting additional billions of people at risk by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mental health challenges, including anxiety and stress, are expected to increase under further global warming in all assessed regions, particularly for children, adolescents, elderly, and those with underlying health conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Globally, population change in low-lying cities and settlements will lead to approximately a billion people projected to be at risk from coastal-specific climate hazards in the mid-term under all scenarios, including in Small Islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The population potentially exposed to a 100-year coastal flood is projected to increase by about 20% if global mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to 2020 levels; this exposed population doubles at a 0.75 m rise in mean sea level and triples at 1.4 m without population change and additional adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Sea level rise poses an existential threat for some Small Islands and some low-lying coasts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
By 2100 the value of global assets within the future 1-in-100 year coastal floodplains is projected to be between US$7.9 and US$12.7 trillion (2011 value) under RCP4.5, rising to between US$8.8 and US$14.2 trillion under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Costs for maintenance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure, including building, transportation, and energy will increase with global warming level (medium confidence), the associated functional disruptions are projected to be substantial particularly for cities, settlements and infrastructure located on permafrost in cold regions and on coasts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The existence of higher estimates than assessed in AR5 indicates that global aggregate economic impacts could be higher than previous estimates (low confidence).36 Significant regional variation in aggregate economic damages from climate change is projected (high confidence) with estimated economic damages per capita for developing countries often higher as a fraction of income (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Economic damages, including both those represented and those not represented in economic markets, are projected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 3°C or higher global warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At progressive levels of warming, involuntary migration from regions with high exposure and low adaptive capacity would occur (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Compared to other socioeconomic factors the influence of climate on conflict is assessed as relatively weak (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Along long-term socioeconomic pathways that reduce non-climatic drivers, risk of violent conflict would decline (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At higher global warming levels, impacts of weather and climate extremes, particularly drought, by increasing vulnerability will increasingly affect violent intrastate conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There is evidence that some regions could benefit from low levels of warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Multiple risks interact, generating new sources of vulnerability to climate hazards, and compounding overall risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing concurrence of heat and drought events are causing crop production losses and tree mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Above 1.5°C global warming increasing concurrent climate extremes will increase risk of simultaneous crop losses of maize in major food-producing regions, with this risk increasing further with higher global warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Future sea level rise combined with storm surge and heavy rainfall will increase compound flood risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks to health and food production will be made more severe from the interaction of sudden food production losses from heat and drought, exacerbated by heat-induced labour productivity losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These interacting impacts will increase food prices, reduce household incomes, and lead to health risks of malnutrition and climate-related mortality with no or low levels of adaptation, especially in tropical regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks to food safety from climate change will further compound the risks to health by increasing food contamination of crops from mycotoxins and contamination of seafood from harmful algal blooms, mycotoxins, and chemical contaminants (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These hazards and cascading risks also trigger tipping points in sensitive ecosystems and in significantly and rapidly changing social-ecological systems impacted by ice melt, permafrost thaw and changing hydrology in polar regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Amazonia, and in some mountain regions, cascading impacts from climatic (e.g., heat) and non-climatic stressors (e.g., land use change) will result in irreversible and severe losses of ecosystem services and biodiversity at 2°C global warming level and beyond (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Unavoidable sea level rise will bring cascading and compounding impacts resulting in losses of coastal ecosystems and ecosystem services, groundwater salinisation, flooding and damages to coastal infrastructure that cascade into risks to livelihoods, settlements, health, well-being, food and water security, and cultural values in the near to long-term (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change causes the redistribution of marine fish stocks, increasing risk of transboundary management conflicts among fisheries users, and negatively affecting equitable distribution of food provisioning services as fish stocks shift from lower to higher latitude regions, thereby increasing the need for climate-informed transboundary management and cooperation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Precipitation and water availability changes increases the risk of planned infrastructure projects, such as hydropower in some regions, having reduced productivity for food and energy sectors including across countries that share river basins (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Deployment of afforestation of naturally unforested land, or poorly implemented bioenergy, with or without carbon capture and storage, can compound climate-related risks to biodiversity, water and food security, and livelihoods, especially if implemented at large scales, especially in regions with insecure land tenure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Solar radiation modification approaches have potential to offset warming and ameliorate some climate hazards, but substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal timescales (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Solar radiation modification would not stop atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from increasing or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Depending on the mag- nitude and duration of overshoot, some impacts will cause release of additional greenhouse gases (medium confidence) and some will be irreversible, even if global warming is reduced (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Additional warming, e.g., above 1.5°C during an overshoot period this century, will result in irreversible impacts on certain ecosystems with low resilience, such as polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet, glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise (high confidence).38 Risks to human systems will increase, including those to infrastructure, low-lying coastal settlements, some ecosystem-based adaptation measures, and associated livelihoods (high confidence), cultural and spiritual values (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected impacts are less severe with shorter duration and lower levels of overshoot (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In high-carbon ecosystems (currently storing 3,000 to 4,000 GtC) such impacts are already observed and are projected to increase with every additional increment of global warming, such as increased wildfires, mass mortality of trees, drying of peatlands, and thawing of permafrost, weakening natural land carbon sinks and increasing releases of greenhouse gases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The resulting contribution to a potential amplification of global warming indicates that a return to a given global warming level or below would be more challenging (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, adaptation progress is unevenly distributed with observed adaptation gaps40 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many initiatives prioritize immediate and near-term climate risk reduction which reduces the opportunity for transformational adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Growing public and political awareness of climate impacts and risks has resulted in at least 170 countries and many cities including adaptation in their climate policies and planning processes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Decision support tools and climate services are increasingly being used (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Pilot projects and local experiments are being implemented in different sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation can generate multiple additional benefits such as improving agricultural productivity, innovation, health and well-being, food security, livelihood, and biodiversity conservation as well as reduction of risks and damages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Most observed adaptation is fragmented, small in scale, incremental, sector-specific, designed to respond to current impacts or near-term risks, and focused more on planning rather than implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed adaptation is unequally distributed across regions (high confidence), and gaps are partially driven by widening disparities between the estimated costs of adaptation and documented finance allocated to adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The largest adaptation gaps exist among lower income population groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At current rates of adaptation planning and implementation the adaptation gap will continue to grow (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As adaptation options often have long implementation times, long-term planning and accelerated implementation, particularly in the next decade, is important to close adaptation gaps, recognising that constraints remain for some regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The feasibility of implementing adaptation options in the near-term differs across sectors and regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The effec- tiveness of adaptation to reduce climate risk is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence) and will decrease with increasing warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that address social in- equities, differentiate responses based on climate risk and cut across systems, increase the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation in multiple sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For inland flooding, combinations of non-structural measures like early warning systems and structural measures like levees have reduced loss of lives (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Enhancing natural water retention such as by restoring wetlands and rivers, land use planning such as no build zones or upstream forest management, can further reduce flood risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
On-farm water management, water storage, soil moisture conservation and irrigation are some of the most common adaptation responses and provide economic, institutional or ecological benefits and reduce vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Irrigation is effective in reducing drought risk and climate impacts in many regions and has several livelihood benefits, but needs appropriate management to avoid potential adverse outcomes, which can include accelerated depletion of groundwater and other water sources and increased soil salinization (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Large scale irrigation can also alter local to regional temperature and precipitation patterns (high confidence), including both alleviating and exacerbating temperature extremes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The effectiveness of most water-related adaptation options to reduce projected risks declines with increasing warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective options include cultivar improvements, agroforestry, community-based adaptation, farm and landscape diversification, and urban agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Agroecological principles and practices, ecosystem-based management in fisheries and aquaculture, and other approaches that work with natural processes support food security, nutrition, health and well-being, livelihoods and biodiversity, sustainability and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These services include pest control, pollination, buffering of temperature extremes, and carbon sequestration and storage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)