rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Observed climate change has led to a northward movement of agro- climatic zones in Europe and earlier onset of the growing season (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming and precipitation changes since 1990 explain continent-wide reductions in yield of wheat and barley, as well as increases in maize and sugar beet (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Drought, excessive rain and the compound hazards of drought and heat (Sections 13.2.1, 13.3.1, 13.10.2) have increased costs and cause economic losses in forest productivity (Schuldt et al., 2020), annual and permanent crops, and livestock farming (Stahl et al., 2016), including losses in wheat production in the EU (van der Velde et al., 2018) and EEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regionally, warming caused increases in yields of field-grown fruiting vegetables, decreases in root vegetables, tomatoes and cucumbers (Potopová et al., 2017) and earlier flowering of olive trees (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence for growing regional differences of projected climate risks is increasing since AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While there is high agreement of the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due to differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation options are represented (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Growing regions will shift northward or expand for melons (Bisbis et al., 2019), tomatoes and grapevines reaching NEU and EEU in 2050 under 1.5°C GWL (high confidence) (Hannah et al., 2013; Litskas et al., 2019), while warming would increase yields of onions, Chinese cabbage and French beans (Bisbis et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Reductions in agricultural yields will be higher in the south at 4°C GWL, with lower losses or gains in the north (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The largest impacts of warming are projected for maize in SEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize in WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Warming causes range expansion and alters host pathogen association of pests, diseases and weeds affecting the health of European crops (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change also impacts grassland production, fodder composition and quality, particularly in SEU (Dumont et al., 2015) and EEU (Bezuglova et al., 2020), as well as alters the prevalence, distribution and load of pathogens and their vectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming increases the pasture growing season and farming period in NEU and at higher altitudes (Fuhrer et al., 2014), while longer drought periods and thunderstorms can influence abandonment of remote Alpine pastures, reducing cultural and landscape ecosystem services and losing traditional farming practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 2–4°C GWL grassland biomass production for forage-fed animals will increase in NEU and the northern Alps, while forage production will decrease in SEU and the southern Alps due to heat and water scarcity (Gauly et al., 2013; Jäger et al., 2020), causing regional reductions of cow milk production in WCE and SEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has impacted European marine food production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the North Sea, cuttlefish (van der Kooij et al., 2016; Oesterwind et al., 2020) and tuna (Bennema, 2018; Faillettaz et al., 2019) have become new target species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
European countries are assessed to be globally among the least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries-related food security risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Assuming MSY management, projections suggest reduced abundance of most commercial fish stocks in European waters of 35% (up to 90% for individual stocks) between 1.5°C and 4.0°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ocean acidification (Section 13.4; Chapter 4) will develop into a major risk for marine food production in Europe under 4°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Acidification is also projected to negatively affect marine shellfish production and aquaculture in Europe with 4°C GWL (medium confidence) (Fernandes et al., 2017; Narita and Rehdanz, 2017; Mangi et al., 2018).13.5.1.4 Forestry and Forest Products Climate change is altering the structure and function of European forests via changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2, as well as through interaction with pests and fire (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While warming and extended growing seasons have positive impacts on forest growth in cold areas in WCE and NEU (Pretzsch et al., 2014; Matskovsky et al., 2020), EEU (Tei et al., 2017) and higher altitude (Sedmáková et al., 2019), drought stress across Europe has been increasing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Water stress exacerbates the incidence from and effects of fire and other natural disturbances (Section 13.3.1), resulting in forest productivity declines or cancelling out productivity gains from CO 2 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extensive droughts during the past two decades have caused many irrigated systems in SEU to cease production (Stahl et al., 2016) indicating limited adaptive capacity to heat and drought (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changes to cultivars and sowing dates can reduce yield losses (Figure 13.15) but are insufficient to fully ameliorate losses projected >3°C GWL, with an increase of risk from north to south and for crops growing later in the season such as maize and wheat (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptations for early maturing reduce yield loss by moving the cycle towards a cooler part of year, and also constrains the increases in irrigation water demands, but reduce the period for photosynthesis and grain filling (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These options are used in indoors- reared species (Gauly et al., 2013) but are limited in mountain pastures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Dairy systems that maximise the use of grazed pasture are considered more environmentally sustainable but are not fully supported by policy and markets (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Agroforestry, integrating trees with crops (silvoarable), livestock (silvopasture), or both (agrosilvopasture), can enhance resilience to climate change (Chapter 5), but implementation in Europe needs improved training programmes and policy support (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Agricultural policy, market prices, new technology and socioeconomic factors play a more impor - tant role in short-term farm-level investment decisions than climate- change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Inflexible and non-adaptive allocation schemes can result in conflicts among European countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The development of adaptation strategies for seafood production since the Paris Agreement is insufficient in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Successful adaptation strategies include altering the tree species composition to enhance the resilience of European forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Greater diversity of tree species reduces vulnerability to pests and pathogens (Felton et al., 2016), and increases resistance to natural disturbances (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Depending on forest successional history (Sheil and Bongers, 2020), tree composition change can increase carbon sequestration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Conservation areas can also help climate-change adaptation by keeping the forest cover intact, creating favourable microclimates and protecting biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Reforestation reduces warming rates (Zellweger et al., 2020) and extremely warm days (Sonntag et al., 2016) inside forests, reducing natural disturbances and fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Consumer demand for food and timber products can adapt to productivity changes and be mediated by price (e.g., in response to production changes or policies on food-related taxation), reflect changes in preferences (e.g., towards plant-based foods motivated by environmental, ethical or health concerns) or reductions in food waste (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although mitigation potentials of dietary changes have received increasing attention, evidence is lacking on potential for adaptation through changes in European food consumption and trade, despite these socioeconomic factors being a strong driver for change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Effectiveness of adaptation options is predominantly qualitatively mentioned but not assessed, and the effectiveness of combinations of measures is rarely assessed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The assessment of irrigation needs and the impact of CO 2 and O 3 tend to focus on individual species and processes hindering upscaling to multiple stressors and mixed production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks of rutting and blow-ups of roads (particularly in low altitudes) due to high summer temperatures are expected to increase in WCE and EEU at 3°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Current damages are mainly related to river floods and storms, but heat and drought will become major drivers in the future (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Indirect effects via supply chains, transport and electricity networks can be as high as, or substantially higher than, direct effects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Due to reduced snow availability and hotter summers, damages are projected for the European tourism industry, with larger losses in SEU (high confidence) and some smaller gains in the rest of Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A GWL of 1.5°C could result in 30,000 annual deaths due to extreme heat, with up to threefold the number under 3°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heat stress risks will be lower under SSP1 than the SSP3 or SSP4 scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In large European cities, stabilising climate warming at 1.5°C GWL would decrease premature deaths by 15–22% in summer compared with stabilisation at 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change could increase air pollution health effects, with the size of the effect differing across European regions and pollutants (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 2.5°C GWL, mortalities due to exposure to PM2.5 are projected to increase by up to 73% in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 2°C GWL, annual premature mortalities due to exposure to near-surface ozone are projected to increase up to 11% in WCE and SEU and to decrease up to 9% in NEU (under RCP4.5) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There has been a temperature-dependent range expansion of ticks that is projected to expand further north in Sweden, Norway and the Russian Arctic (Jaenson et al., 2012; Jore et al., 2014; Tokarevich et al., 2017; Waits et al., 2018), and to higher elevations in Austria and the Czech Republic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projections for Europe show the West Nile virus risk to expand: by 2025, the risk is projected to increase in SEU and southern and eastern parts of WCE (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Although climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Europe is increasing and will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors, the risk from malaria to human health in Europe remains low due to economic and social development as well as access to health care (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under further warming, the number of months with risk of Vibrio transmission increases and the seasonal transmission window expands, thereby increasing the risk to human health in the future (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Allergies and Pollen The main drivers of allergies are predominantly non-climatic (e.g., increased urbanisation, adoption of westernised lifestyles, social and genetic factors), but climate change strongly contributes to the spread of some allergenic plants, thus exacerbating existing allergies and causing new ones in people across Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Each of these major European heatwaves led to considerable economic losses in agriculture and construction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mental Health and Well-Being Extreme weather events can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety and depression; this is well-documented for flooding in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It shows that substantial social–cultural and institutional barriers complicate widespread implementation of measures; studies on the implementation of new blue–green spaces in existing urban structures in, for example, Sweden (Wihlborg et al., 2019), the UK (Carter et al., 2018) and the Netherlands (Aalbers et al., 2019), point to important feasibility challenges (e.g., access to financial resources, societal opposition, competition for space) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Existing health measures, such as monitoring and early warning systems, play an important role in detecting and communicating emerging climate risks and weather extremes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Combining multiple types of adaptation options into a consistent policy portfolio may have an amplifying effect in reducing risks, particularly at higher GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Coordination of health adaptation actions across scales and between public sectors is needed to ensure timely and effective responses for a diversity of health impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urban poor and ethnic minorities often settle in more vulnerable settlement zones, and are therefore impacted more by flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While it strengthens resilience for disadvantaged households (Church et al., 2015; Boost and Meier, 2017; Promberger, 2017; Vávra et al., 2018; Ančić et al., 2019; Pungas, 2019) and renews their local knowledge, it can become a risk in regions with projected crop yield reductions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While energy poverty is much more prevalent in SEU and EEU (Bouzarovski and Petrova, 2015; Pye et al., 2015; Atsalis et al., 2016; Monge-Barrio and Sánchez-Ostiz Gutiérrez, 2018), climate change will also exacerbate energy poverty in European regions where heating thus far has been the major share of energy costs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Temperatures in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions have increased on average by 2°C over the past 30 years (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Future warming is expected to further increase winter precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming and CO 2 increase result in higher plant productivity (Section 13.3), changes in plant community composition and higher parasite harassment; unstable ice conditions affect migration; extreme weather conditions during critical winter months, more frequent forest fires and changes in plant community composition reduce pasture quality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
High snow depth and rain-on-snow events impede reindeer access to ground lichen in winter and delay spring green-up during the critical calving period; both cause malnutrition and negative impacts on reindeer health, mortality and reproductive success (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Lower slaughter weights and increased mortality reduce the income of herders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reindeer herders already autonomously adapt to changing conditions through flexible use of pastures and supplementary feeding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, adaptive herding practices have themselves added significant burden through increased workload, costs and stress (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Supplementary feeding increases the risk of infectious diseases and implies culturally undesirable herding practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Rapid land-use change reduces the ability to adapt (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
National and EU policies expand land uses for mining, wind energy and bioeconomy in the area, causing loss, fragmentation and degradation of pastures, and increasing human disturbance to animals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Herding communities face strong barriers to protecting their rights and halting further degradation of pastures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Combined with land-use conflicts, climate impacts cause reduced psycho-social health and increase suicidal thoughts among herders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
The cumulative effects of land-use and climate change have already increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding to the extent that its long-term sustainability is threatened (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Lack of control over land use is the biggest and most urgent threat to the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding and the right of Sámi to their culture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The exposure of European countries to trans-European climate impact and risk pathways varies depending on their territorial settings, national policies and position in the global supply chain (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Simultaneous breadbasket failures, and trade restrictions, increase risks to food supply (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There is emerging evidence that supporting adaptation outside Europe may generate economic co-benefits for Europe (Román et al., 2018).13.10 Detection and Attribution, Key Risks and Adaptation Pathways 13.10.1 Detection and Attribution of Impacts Since AR5, scientific documentation of observed changes attributed to global warming have proliferated (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These include ecosystem changes detected in previous assessments, such as earlier annual greening and onset of faunal reproduction processes, relocation of species towards higher latitudes and altitudes (high confidence), and impacts of heat on human health and productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In recent decades (2000–2015), economic losses intensified in SEU (high confidence) and were detected for parts of WCE and NEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The risk of human heat stress and mortality is largely influenced by underlying socioeconomic pathways, with consequences being more severe under SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios than SSP1 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The impact of warming in marine systems are often synergistic with SLR in coastal systems and ocean acidification driven by the rise in CO 2, while habitat fragmentation and land use have important synergies in terrestrial systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The transition to moderate risk is currently happening as warming already results in changes in timing of development, species migration northward and upwards, and desynchronisation of species interactions, especially at the range limits, with cascading and cumulative impacts through ecosystems and food webs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The transition is happening at slightly higher warming in terrestrial systems due to a higher number of thermal refugia in terrestrial systems causing relocation but not already severe impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Whether or not adaptation measures are effective to reduce risk severity for people’s health depends on local context (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some adaptation options are found to be highly effective across Europe irrespective of warming levels, including air conditioning and urban planning (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To reach high adaptation, a combination of low, medium and high effectiveness measures in different sectors and sub-regions is needed, many of which entail systems’ transformations (e.g., heat-proof land management) (Chapter 16) and remain effective at higher warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A reduction of non-climatic stressors, such as nutrient loads, resource extraction, habitat fragmentation or pesticides on land, are considered important adaptation options to increase the resilience to climate-change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A major governance tool to reduce climatic and non-climatic impacts is the establishment of networks of protected areas (Sections 13.3.2, 13.4.2) especially when aggregated, zoned or linked with corridors for migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reforestation, rewilding and habitat restoration are long-term strategies for reducing risk for biodiversity loss supported by assisted migration and evolution (Section 13.3.2, 13.4), though current laws and regulations do not include species migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected SLR will strongly impact coastal ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There will be also broader adverse impacts such as reduction of grassland biomass production for fodder, increases in weeds and reduction in pollination (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under high adaptation, the use of irrigation can substantially reduce risk by both reducing canopy temperature and drought impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Crop production is a major consumer of water in agriculture (Gerveni et al., 2020), yet a potentially scarcer supply of water in some regions must be distributed across many needs (KR3, Section 13.10.2.3), limiting availability to agriculture which is currently the main user of water in many regions of Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Where the ability to irrigate is limited by water availability, other adaptation options are insufficient to mitigate crop losses in some sub-regions, particularly at 3°C GWL and above, with an increase in risk from north to south and higher risk for late-season crops such as maize (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under these conditions, land abandonment is projected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Evidence from the detected changes and attribution assessment suggests that the risk is already moderate in SEU (e.g., 48 million people exposed to moderate water scarcity between 1981 and 2010) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Socioeconomic conditions contributing to severe consequences are when more residents settle in drought-prone regions, or when the share of agriculture in GDP declines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For Europe, risks of water scarcity will be higher under SSP5 and SSP3 than under SSP1 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This transition will happen at higher warming in WCE since risks are projected to increase less rapidly (transition between 2°C and 3°C GWL) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 3°C GWL and beyond, water scarcity will become much more widespread and severe in already water-scarce areas in SEU (high confidence) and will expand to currently non-water-scarce regions in WCE (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Coastal areas have already started to be affected by SLR (see Box 13.1; Section 13.10.1) and human exposure to coastal hazards is projected to increase in the next decades (high confidence), but less under SSP1 (20%) than SSP5 (50%) by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under low adaptation (i.e., coastal defences are maintained but not further strengthened), severe consequences include an increase in expected annual damage by a factor of at least 20 for 1.5°C–2.1°C GWL (i.e., high risks) and by two to three orders of magnitude between 2°C and 3°C GWL in EU-28 (i.e., very high risk) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Pluvial and riverine flood events in Europe have been attributed to climate change, but the associated damages and losses also depend on land-use planning and flood risk management practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Soft limits to protection have been identified under high GWL, in particular due to the rate of change and delayed impacts of long-term SLR (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ecosystem-based solutions, such as wetlands, can reduce waves’ propagation, provide co-benefits for the environment and climate mitigation, and reduce costs for flood defences (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Both protection and flood retention are effective in reducing inland flooding risk across Europe, but with regional variation in the benefit-to-cost ratio (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)