rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
For wild fisheries, multi- model projections suggest temperate and demersal systems, especially invertebrate shallow-water species, would be more strongly affected by climate change than tropical and pelagic systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Given the value of that infrastructure and the rising damage costs, this represents a large knowledge gap that has led to an adaptation investment deficit.11.3.5.1 Observed Impacts Critical infrastructure, cities and settlements are being increasingly affected by chronic and acute climate hazards, including heat, drought, fire, pluvial and fluvial flooding and sea level rise (SLR), with consequent effects on many sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks and impacts vary with physical characteristics, location, connectivity and socioeconomic status of settlements because of the ways these influence exposure and vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Such tensions will be further challenged as temperatures rise and extreme events intensify beyond what has been experienced, thus stressing current adaptive capacities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While investment in irrigation infrastructure may reduce climate change impacts in the short term, maladaptive outcomes cannot be ruled out longer term, which means that focusing attention now on adaptive and transformational measures can help increase climate resilience in areas exposed to increasing drought and climate extremes that disrupt production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Seaports, airports, water treatment plants, desalination plants, roads and railways are increasingly exposed to sea level rise (SLR) (very high confidence), impacting their longevity and levels of service and maintenance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme heat events exacerbate problems for vulnerable people and infrastructure in urban Australia, where urban heat is superimposed upon regional warming, and there are adverse impacts for population and vegetation health, particularly for socioeconomically disadvantaged groups (Tapper et al., 2014; Heaviside et al., 2017; Filho et al., 2018; Gebert et al., 2018; Rogers et al., 2018; Longden, 2019; Marchionni et al., 2019; Tapper, 2021) (11.3.6), energy demand, energy supply and infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climatic extremes are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective adaptations to urban heat include spatial planning, expanding tree canopy and greenery, shading, sprays and heat-resistant and energy-efficient building design, including cool materials and reflective or green roofs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate risk management is evolving, but adaptive capacity, implemen- tation, monitoring and evaluation are uneven across all scales of cities, settlements and infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Infrastructure planning is lagging behind international standards for climate resilience evaluation and guidance for adaptation to climate risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected SLR will cause more frequent flooding in Australia and New Zealand before mid-century (very high confidence)(Hunter, 2012; McInnes et al., 2016; Stephens et al., 2017; Stephens et al., 2020); (Steffen et al., 2014; PCE, 2015; MfE, 2017a; Hague et al., 2019; Paulik et al., 2020) Squeeze in intertidal habitats (high confidence)(Steffen et al., 2014; Peirson et al., 2015; Mills et al., 2016a; Mills et al., 2016b; Pettit et al., 2016; Rouse et al., 2017; Rayner et al., 2021) Significant property and infrastructure exposure (high confidence)(Steffen et al., 2014; PCE, 2015; Harvey, 2019; LGNZ, 2019; Paulik et al., 2020) (Table Box 11.5.2 and Table Box 11.6.2) Loss of significant cultural and archaeological sites and projected to compound with several hazards over this century (medium confidence)(Bickler et al., 2013; Birkett-Rees et al., 2020; NZ Archaeological Association, 2020) Increasing flood risk and water insecurity with health and well-being impacts on Torres Strait Islanders (high confidence)(Steffen et al., 2014; McInnes et al., 2016; McNamara et al., 2017) Degradation and loss of freshwater wetlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
RSLR, to date, is a secondary factor influencing shoreline stability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The primary impacts of rising mean sea level (Table Box 11.6.1) are being compounded by climate-related changes in waves, storm surge, rising water tables, river flows and alterations in sediment delivery to the coast (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The cumulative direct and residual risk from RSLR and associated impacts are projected to continue for centuries, necessitating ongoing adaptive decisions for exposed coastal communities and assets (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Rapid coastal development has increased exposure of coastal communities and infrastructure (high confidence) (Helman and Tomlinson, 2018; Paulik et al., 2020), reinforcing perceptions of safety (Gibbs, 2015; Lawrence et al., 2015) and creating barriers to retreat and nature-based adaptations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Remaining adaptation barriers are social or cultural (the absence of licence and legitimacy) and institutional (the absence of regulations, policies and processes that support changes to existing property rights and the funding of retreat) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Legacy development, competing public and private interests, trade-offs among development and conservation objectives, policy inconsistencies, short- and long-term objectives and the timing and scale of impacts compound to create contestation over implementation of coastal adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Legal barriers to coastal adaptation remain (Schumacher, 2020) with a risk that the courts will become decision makers (Iorns Magallanes et al., 2018) due to legislative fragmentation, status quo leadership, lack of coordination between governance levels and agreement about who pays for what adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Risk signalling through land use planning, flooding events and changes in insurance availability and costs is projected to increase recognition of coastal risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adopting ‘fit for purpose’ decision tools that are flexible as sea levels rise (11.7.3) can build adaptive capacity in communities and institutions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability to detrimental effects of climate change will vary with socioeconomic conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Underlying health and economic trends affect the vulnerability of the population to extreme weather (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heatwave responses, from public education to formal heat-warning systems, are the best-developed element of adaptation planning for health in Australia, but many metropolitan centres are still not covered (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Impacts of climate change are being observed across the tourism system (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Glacier tourism, a multi-million-dollar industry in New Zealand, is potentially under threat because glacier volumes are projected to decrease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Snow skiing faces significant challenges from climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate adaptation finance is not evident (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For a 4°C global warming, the changes are −48%, −14%, +135%, +213% and +350% respectively.11.3.10.3 Adaptation Options to manage risks include adaptation of energy markets, integrated planning, improved asset design standards, smart- grid technologies, energy generation diversification, distributed generation (e.g., roof-top solar, microgrids), energy efficiency, demand management, pumped hydro storage, battery storage and improved capacity to respond to supply deficits and balance variable energy resources across the network (Table 11.8) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Fundamental shifts in the structure and composition of some ecosystems are partly due to anthropogenic climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In human systems, the costs of droughts and floods in New Zealand, and heat-related mortality and fire damage in Australia, are partly attributed to anthropogenic climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changing climate conditions are expected to exacerbate many of the social, economic and health inequalities faced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples in Australia and Māori in New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As a consequence, effective policy responses are those that take advantage of the interlinkages and dependencies between mitigation, adaptation and Indigenous Peoples’ well-being (Jones, 2019) and those that address the transformative change needed from colonial legacies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is a central role for Indigenous Peoples in climate change decision-making that helps address the enduring legacy of colonisation through building opportunities based on Indigenous governance regimes, cultural practices to care for land and water and intergenerational perspectives (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate-related impacts on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, countries (traditional estates) and cultures have been observed across Australia and are pervasive, complex and compounding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Large proportions of collectively owned land already suffer from high rates of erosion (Warmenhoven et al., 2014; Awatere et al., 2018), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate-change-induced extreme rainfalls (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-related impacts on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, country and cultures: loss of biocultural diversity (land, water and sky) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change impacts can exacerbate and/or accelerate existing threats of habitat degradation and biodiversity loss and create challenges for traditional stewardship of landscapes (Mackey and Claudie, 2015) Climate-driven loss of native title and other customary lands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changing availability of traditional foods and forced diet change (medium confidence)Human health impacts can be exacerbated by climate change through the changing availability of traditional foods and medicines, while outages and the high costs of electricity can limit the storage of fresh food and medication (Kingsley et al., 2013; Spurway and Soldatic, 2016; Hall and Crosby, 2020) Changing climatic conditions for subsistence food harvesting (medium confidence)Climate-change-induced SLR and saltwater intrusion can limit the capacity for traditional Indigenous floodplain pastoralism and affect food security, access to and affordability of healthy, nutritional food (Ligtermoet, 2016; Spurway and Soldatic, 2016) Extreme weather events triggering disasters (high confidence)Increasing frequency or intensity of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, cyclones, heatwaves) can cause disaster responses in remote communities, including infrastructure damage of essential water and energy systems and health facilities (TSRA, 2018; Hall and Crosby, 2020) Heatwave impacts on human health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, the Torres Strait Islands are already categorised under the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Heat Index as a danger zone for extreme human health risk during summer (TSRA, 2018) Health impacts from changing conditions for vector-borne diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, in the Torres Strait Islands the changing climate is affecting the range and extension of the Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that can carry and transmit dengue and other viruses (Horwood et al., 2018; TSRA, 2018) Unadaptable infrastructure for changing environmental conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Essential community-scale water and energy service infrastructure, unpaved roads, sea walls and stormwater drains can fail in extreme weather events (McNamara et al., 2017) Drinking water security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Further, many Māori-owned lands and cultural assets, such as marae and urupa, are located on coastal lowlands vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Māori tribal investment in fisheries and aquaculture faces substantial risks from changes in ocean temperature and acidification and the downstream impacts on species distribution, productivity and yields (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Changing climate conditions are projected to exacerbate health inequities faced by Māori (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The production and ecology of some keystone cultural flora and fauna may be impacted by projected warming temperatures and reductions in rainfall (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Obstruction of access to keystone species is expected to adversely impact customary practice, cultural identity and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Māori tribal organisations have a critical role in defining climate risks and policy responses (Bargh et al., 2014; Parsons et al., 2019), as well as entering into strategic partnerships with business, science, research and government to address these risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
More integrated assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation and socioeconomic risk for different Māori groups and communities, in the context of multiple stresses, inequities and different ways of knowing and being (King et al., 2013; Schneider et al., 2017; Henwood et al., 2019), would assist those striving to evaluate impacts and risks and how to integrate these assessments into adaptation plans (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Intergenerational approaches to climate change planning will become increasingly important, elevating political discussions about conceptions of rationality, diversity and the rights of non-human entities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Anticipatory governance and agile decision-making can build resilience to cascading, compounding and aggregate impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Delaying adaptation to climate risks may result in higher overall costs in future when adaptation is more urgent and impacts more extreme (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Loss and degradation of tropical shallow coral reefs and associated biodiversity and ecosystem service values in Australia due to ocean warming and marine heatwaves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Loss of alpine biodiversity in Australia due to less snow (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transition or collapse of alpine ash, snow gum woodland, pencil pine and northern jarrah forests in southern Australia due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of kelp forests in southern Australia and southeast New Zealand due to ocean warming, marine heatwaves and overgrazing by climate-driven range extensions of herbivore fish and urchins (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of human and natural systems in low-lying coastal areas from ongoing SLR (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity for people and wildlife in Australia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Cascading, compounding and aggregate impacts on cities, settlements, infrastructure, supply chains and services due to extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Inability of institutions and governance systems to manage climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Short-term benefits from climate change may include reduced winter mortality, reduced energy demand for winter heating, increased agriculture productivity and forest growth in south and west New Zealand and increased forest and pasture growth in southern Australia, except where rainfall and soil nutrients are limiting (11.3.4, 11.3.6, 11.3.10) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Large gaps remain, especially in effective implementation, monitoring and evaluation (Supplementary Material SM 11.1) (CCATWG, 2017; Warnken and Mosadeghi, 2018), and current adaptation is largely incremental and reactive (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Opportunities for integrated adaptation and mitigation planning in regional policies and plans have arisen through the Resource Management Amendment Act 2020 (Dickie, 2020), the National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (MfE, 2020b) and the revised national coastal guidance (MfE, 2017a), but rely on funding instruments to be in place and statutes are aligned for their effectiveness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
There is growing awareness of the need for more proactive adaptation planning at multiple scales and across sectors, and a better understanding of future risks and limits to adaptation is emerging (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
New tools are available in the region (Table 11.17), but uptake cannot be assumed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Resilience and adaptation approaches are beginning to converge (White and O’Hare, 2014; Aldunce et al., 2015) (Supplementary Material SM 11.1) but widespread ‘bounce-back’ resilience-driven responses that lock in risk by discounting ongoing and changing climate risk (Leitch and Bohensky, 2014; O’Hare et al., 2016; Wenger, 2017; Torabi et al., 2018) can create maladaptation and impede long- term adaptation goals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nature-based adaptations (Colloff et al., 2016; Lavorel et al., 2019; Della Bosca and Gillespie, 2020) and ‘green infrastructure’ (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Effective cooperation and a positive innovation culture can contribute to the collaborative development of climate change adaptation pathways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Learning and experimentation across governance boundaries and between agencies and local communities enable adaptation to be better aligned with changing climate risks and community (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is increasing focus on improving adaptive capacity for transitional and transformational responses, but reactive responses dominate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
There are many barriers to starting adaptation pre-emptively (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Communities’ vulnerabilities are dynamic and uneven (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In some human systems, fundamental limits to adaptation include thermal thresholds and safe freshwater (Alston et al., 2018) (Table 11.14) and the inability of some low-lying coastal communities to adapt in place (Box 11.6) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
A lack of robust and timely adaptation means key risks will increasingly manifest as impacts, and numerous systems, communities and institutions are projected to reach limits (Table 11.14, Figure 11.6), compounding current adaptation deficits and undermining society’s capacity to adapt to future impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Decision makers face the challenge of how to adapt when there are ongoing knowledge gaps and uncertainties about when some climate change impacts will occur and their scale, for example coastal flooding (Box 11.6) or extreme rainfall events and their cascading effects (Box 11.4) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
More inclusive, collaborative and learning-oriented community engagement processes are fundamental to effective adaptation outcomes (11.7.3.2) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Regular monitoring, evaluation, communication and coordination of adaptation are essential for accelerating learning and adjusting to dynamic climate impacts and changes in socioeconomic and cultural conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nevertheless, New Zealanders have a tendency to overestimate the amount of sea level rise (SLR), especially among those most concerned about climate change and incorrectly associate it with melting sea ice, which has implications for engagement and communication strategies (Priestley et al., 2021).The use of more systemic, collaborative and future-oriented engagement approaches is facilitating adaptation in local contexts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
All of these approaches depend on adequate resourcing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Current global emissions reduction policies are projected to lead to a global warming of 2.1°C–3.9°C by 2100 (Liu and Raftery, 2021), leaving many of the region’s human and natural systems at very high risk and beyond adaptation limits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Building cities and settlements that are resilient to the impacts of climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of infrastructural, ecological, social, economic, institutional and political dimensions of resilience, including political will, leadership, commitment, community support, multi-level governance and policy continuity (Torabi et al., 2021).11.8.2 Challenges for Climate Resilient Development Pathways Implementing enablers can help drive adaptation ambition and action consistent with climate resilient development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Whatever the outcome, adaptation and mitigation are essential and urgent (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
High levels of widespread poverty, weak water governance, unequal access to safe water and sanitation services and lack of infrastructure and financing reduce adaptation capacity, increasing and creating new population vulnerabilities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This resulted in high tree mortality rates and basin-wide reductions in forest productivity, momentarily turning pristine forest areas from a carbon sink into a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The combined effect of anthropogenic land use change and climate change increases the vulnerabilities of terrestrial ecosystems to extreme climate events and fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Species have shifted upslope, leading to range contractions for highland species and range contractions and expansions for lowland species, including crops and vectors of diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Glacier retreat, temperature increase and precipitation variability, together with land use changes, have affected ecosystems, water resources and livelihoods through landslides and flood disasters (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In several areas of the Andes, flood and landslide disasters have increased, and water availability and quality and soil erosion have been affected by both climatic and non-climatic factors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
On average, people in the region were more exposed to high fire danger between 1 and 26 additional days depending on the sub-region for the years 2017–2020 compared to 2001–2004 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Conversely, reduced precipitation and altered rainfall at the start and end of the rainy season and during the mid-summer drought (MSD) is impacting rainfed subsistence farming, particularly in the Dry Corridor in CA and in the tropical Andes, compromising food security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Examples are the effects of warming temperatures on increasing the suitability of transmission of vector-borne diseases, including endemic and emerging arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The reproduction potential for the transmission of dengue increased between 17% and 80% for the period 1950–1954 to 2016–2021, depending on the sub-region, as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Often they have less capacity to adapt, further widening structural gender gaps (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The adaptation measures in place, however, are insufficient to safeguard terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the CSA from the negative impacts of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The main adaptation measures are ocean zoning, the prohibition of productive activities (e.g., fisheries, aquaculture, mining and tourism) on marine ecosystems, the improvement of research and education programmes and the creation of specific national policies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)