rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Compound climate hazards can overwhelm adaptive capacity and substantially increase damage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Fewer habitats, less biodiversity, lower coastal protection (medium confidence) and decreased food and water security will result (medium confidence), reducing the habitability of some small islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Losses become systemic when they affect entire systems and can even jump from one system to another (e.g., drought impacting rural food production contributing to urban food insecurity) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Flows of commodities and goods, as well as people, finance and innovation, can be driven or disrupted by distant climate change impacts on rural populations, transport networks and commodity speculation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, Europe faces climate risks from outside the area due to global supply chain positioning and shared resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate risks in Europe also impact finance, food production and marine resources beyond Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts and risks include reduced access to and productivity of future fisheries, regional and global food and nutritional security (high confidence), local livelihoods, health and well-being (high confidence) and loss to sociocultural assets, including heritage sites in all Arctic regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Deforestation, fires and urbanisation have increased the exposure of Indigenous Peoples to respiratory problems, air pollution and diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regions characterised by compound challenges of high levels of poverty, a significant number of people without access to basic services, such as water and sanitation and wealth and gender inequalities, and governance challenges are among the most vulnerable regions and are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches attempt to offset warming and ameliorate some climate risks but introduce a range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transitions from high to very high risk emerge in all five RFCs, compared to just two RFCs in AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Remaining below 2°C warming (but above 1.5°C) would imply that risk for RFC3 through RFC5 would be transitioning to high, and risk for RFC1 and RFC2 would be transitioning to very high (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2.5°C warming, RFC1 will be at very high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Once such risks materialise, the impacts would persist even if global temperatures subsequently declined to levels associated with lower levels of risk in an ‘overshooting’ scenario, for example where temperatures increase over ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial’ for multi-decadal time spans before decreasing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Even if the Paris temperature goal is still reached by 2100, this ‘overshoot’ entails severe risks and irreversible impacts on many natural and human systems (e.g., glacier melt, loss of coral reefs, loss of human life due to heat) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The exact timing and magnitude of climate–biosphere feedbacks and potential tipping points of carbon loss are characterised by large uncertainty, but studies of feedbacks indicate increased ecosystem carbon losses can cause large future temperature increases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Even the lowest estimates of species extinctions (9% lost) are 1000 times the natural background rates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
SRM effects on climate hazards are highly dependent on deployment scenarios, and substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal time scales (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
SRM would not stop CO 2 from increasing in the atmosphere or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its Indigenous Peoples, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots.Coral bleaching, mass tree and animal mortalities, species extinction; decline in sea-ice dependent species, range shifts in multiple ecosystemsIn transition from moderate to high1.1°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Adaptation progress and gaps TS.D.1 Increasing adaptation is being observed in natural and human systems (very high confidence), yet the majority of climate risk management and adaptation currently being planned and implemented are incremental (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There are gaps between current adaptation and the adaptation needed to avoid the increase of climate impacts that can be observed across sectors and regions, especially under medium and high warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Growing adaptation knowledge in public and private sectors, increasing numbers of policy and legal frameworks and dedicated spending on adaptation are all clear indications that the availability of response options has expanded (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, observed adaptation in human systems across all sectors and regions is dominated by small incremental, reactive changes to usual practices often after extreme weather events, while evidence of transformative adaptation in human systems is limited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts, pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding are the most common hazards for which adaptation is being implemented, and many of these have physical, affordability and social limits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These measures can increase the resilience, productivity and sustainability of both natural and food systems under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Investment in climate service provision has benefited the agricultural sector in many regions, with limited uptake of climate service information into decision- making frameworks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There are large gaps in risk management and risk transfer in low- income contexts, and even larger gaps in conflict-affected contexts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptive capacity is highly uneven across and within regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Current adaptation efforts are not expected to meet existing goals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many plans focus on climate risk reduction, missing opportunities to advance co- benefits of climate mitigation and sustainable development and risking compounding inequality and reduced well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The largest adaptation gaps exist in projects that manage complex risks, for example in the food–energy–water–health nexus or the inter- relationships of air quality and climate risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most innovation in adaptation has occurred through advances in social and ecological infrastructures, including disaster risk management, social safety nets and green/blue infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, most financial investment continues to be directed narrowly at large-scale hard engineering projects after climate events have caused harm (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Most of the adaptation options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Governance capacity, financial support and the legacy of past urban infrastructure investment constrain how cities and settlements are able to adapt (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Critical urban capacity gaps include limited ability to identify social vulnerability and community strengths, the absence of integrated planning to protect communities, the lack of access to innovative funding arrangements and a limited capability to manage finance and commercial insurance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For example, Africa faces severe climate data constraints and inequities in research funding and leadership that reduce adaptive capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Annual finance flows targeting adaptation for Africa, for example, are billions of US dollars less than the lowest adaptation cost estimates for near-term climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Tracked private-sector finance for climate change action has grown substantially since 2015, but the proportion directed towards adaptation has remained small (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, private-sector financing of adaptation has been limited, especially in developing countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The success of adaptation will depend on our understanding of which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To close the adaptation gap, political commitment, persistent and consistent action across scales of government and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital are key (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In some natural systems, hard limits have been reached (high confidence) and more will be reached beyond 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Surpassing such hard, evolutionary limits causes local species extinctions and displacements if suitable habitats exist (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Otherwise, species’ existence is at very high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In human, managed and natural systems, soft limits are already being experienced (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Financial constraints are key determinants of adaptation limits in human and managed systems, particularly in low-income settings (high confidence), while in natural systems key determinants for limits are inherent traits of the species or ecosystem (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Hard limits will increasingly emerge at higher levels of warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence and signals of the thresholds at which constraints result in limits is still sparse and, in human systems, are expected to remain contested even with increasing knowledge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Beginning at below 1.5°C, autonomous and evolutionary adaptation responses by more terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems will face hard limits, resulting in species extinctions, loss of ecosystem integrity and a resulting loss of livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Soft limits are currently being experienced in particular by individuals, households, cities and settlements along the coast and by small-scale farmers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Hard limits beginning at 1.5°C are also projected for coastal communities reliant on nature-based coastal protection (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation to address the risks of heat stress, heat mortality and reduced capacities for outdoor work for humans face soft and hard limits across regions that become significantly more severe at 1.5°C and are particularly relevant for regions with warm climates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Beginning at 3°C, hard limits are projected for water management measures, leading to decreased water quality and availability, negative impacts on health and well-being, economic losses in water and energy-dependent sectors and potential migration of communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Soft and hard limits for agricultural production are related to water availability and the uptake and effectiveness of climate resilient crops, which are constrained by socioeconomic and political challenges (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In terms of settlements, limits to adaptation are often most pronounced in smaller and rapidly growing towns and cities, including those without dedicated local government (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At the same time, legacy infrastructure in large and mega cities, designed without taking climate change risk into account, constrains innovation, leading to stranded assets and with increasing numbers of people unable to avoid harm, including heat stress and flooding, without transformative adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Information, awareness and technological constraints are also high in multiple regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, awareness of anthropogenic climate change ranges between 23% and 66% of people across 33 African countries, with low climate literacy limiting potential for transformative adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The ability of actors to overcome socioeconomic constraints determines whether additional adaptation can be implemented and prevent soft limits from becoming hard limits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Above 1.5°C of warming, limits to adaptation are reported for human and natural systems, including coral reefs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Decreasing maladaptation requires attention to justice and a shift in enabling conditions towards those that enable timely adjustments for avoiding or minimising damage and for seizing opportunities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Policy decisions that ignore the risks of adverse effects can be maladaptive by worsening the impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Examples include in coastal systems (e.g., sea walls that enable further exposure through intensification of developments in low-lying coastal areas), urban areas (e.g., inflexible infrastructure in cities and settlements that cannot be adjusted easily or affordably for increased heavy rainfall), agriculture (e.g., the use of high cost irrigation in areas that are projected to have more intense drought conditions), forestry (e.g., planting of unsuitable trees species which displace Indigenous Peoples and other forest- dependent communities) and human settlements (e.g., stranded assets and stranded vulnerable communities that cannot afford to shift away or adapt and require an increase in social safety nets) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Rights-based approaches to adaptation, participatory methodologies and inclusion of local and Indigenous knowledge, combined with informed consent, deliver mechanisms to avoid these pitfalls (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation solutions benefit from engagement with Indigenous and marginalised groups, solve past equity and justice issues and offer novel approaches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Indigenous knowledge is a powerful tool to assess interlinked ecosystem functions across terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, bypassing siloed approaches and sectoral problems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Lastly, engagement with Indigenous knowledge and marginalised groups often offers an intergenerational context for adaptation solutions needed to avoid maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Avoiding maladaptive responses to sea level rise depends on immediate mitigation and application of adaptive planning that sets out near-term, low-regret actions while keeping open options to account for ongoing committed sea level rise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Such forward-looking adaptive pathway planning and iterative risk management can address the current path dependencies that lead to maladaptation and can enable timely adaptation alignment with long implementation lead times, as well as addressing uncertainty about rate and magnitude of local sea level rise, and ensuring that adaptation will be more effective (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As sea level rise advances, only avoidance and relocation will eliminate coastal risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Other measures only delay impacts for a time, increasing residual risk, perpetuating risk and creating ongoing legacy effects and inevitable property and ecosystem losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While relocation may in the near term appear socially unacceptable, economically inefficient or technically infeasible, it may become the only feasible option as protection costs become unaffordable and technical limits are reached (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Integrated approaches, such as the water–energy–food nexus and inter-regional considerations of risks can reduce the risk of maladaptation, building on existing adaptation strategies, increasing community participation and consultation, integration of Indigenous knowledge and local 7 Ecosystem-based adaptation is defined as the use of ecosystem management activities to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to climate change.knowledge, focusing on the most vulnerable small-scale producers, anticipating risks of maladaptation in decision-making for long-lived activities, including infrastructure decisions, and the impact of trade- offs and co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Better ecosystem protection and management is key to reduce the risks that climate change poses to biodiversity and ecosystem services and build resilience; it is also essential that climate change adaptation be integrated into the planning and implementation of conservation and environmental management if it is to be fully effective in future (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks to ecosystems from climate change can be reduced by protection and restoration and also by a range of targeted actions to adapt conservation practice to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ambitious and swift global mitigation offers more adaptation options and pathways to sustain ecosystems and their services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Even under current climate change, it is necessary to take account of climate change impacts, which are already occurring or are inevitable, in environmental management to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches are increasingly being used as part of strategies to manage flood risk, at the coast in the face of rising sea levels and inland in the context of more extreme rainfall events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Flood-risk measures that work with nature by allowing flooding within coastal and wetland ecosystems and support sediment accretion can reduce costs and bring substantial co-benefits to ecosystems, liveability and livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In urban areas, trees and natural areas can lower temperatures by providing shade and cooling from evapotranspiration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Restoration of ecosystems in catchments can also support water supplies during periods of variable 8 Actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits.rainfall and maintain water quality and, combined with inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities, provide disaster risk reduction and sustainable development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Restoration of wetlands could support livelihoods and help sequester carbon (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Taking account of interdisciplinary scientific information, Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and practical expertise is essential to effective ecosystem-based adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is a large risk of maladaptation where this does not happen (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation responses reduce future climate risks at 1.5°C warming, but effectiveness decreases above 2°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Resilience is strengthened by eco- system-based adaptation (high confidence) and sustainable resource management of terrestrial and aquatic species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Competition, trade-offs and conflict between mitigation and adaptation priorities will in- crease with climate change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Integrated, multi-sectoral, inclusive and systems-oriented solutions reinforce long-term resilience (high confidence), along with supportive public policies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Frequently documented options include rainwater harvesting, soil moisture conservation, cultivar improvements, community-based adaptation, agricultural diversification, climate services and adaptive eco-management in fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Roughly 25% of assessed water-related adaptations have co-benefits, while 33% of the assessed reported current or future maladaptive outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Integration of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge increase their effectiveness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Currently known adaptation responses generally perform more effectively at 1.5°C than at 2°C or more, with increasing risks remaining after adaptation at higher warming levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Irrigation expansion will face increasing limits due to water availability beyond 1.5°C (medium confidence), with a potential doubling of regional risks to irrigation water availability between 2°C and 4°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Negative risks even with adaptation will become greater beyond 2°C warming in an increasing number of regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Options such as ecosystem approaches to fisheries, agricultural diversification, agroforestry and other ecological practices support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes (high confidence), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ecosystem-based approaches support food security, nutrition and livelihoods when inclusive equitable governance processes are used (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation options exist to reduce the vulnerability of fisheries through better management, governance and socioeconomic dimensions (medium confidence) to eliminate overexploitation and pollution (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can facilitate adaptation in small-scale fisheries, especially when combined with scientific knowledge and utilised in management regimes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptive transboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood diversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing will reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably harvested wild products and revenues (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Agricultural intensification addresses short-term food security and livelihood goals but has trade-offs in equity, biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Irrigation is widely used and effective for yield stability, but with several negative outcomes, including water demand (high confidence), groundwater depletion (high confidence), alteration of local to regional climates (high confidence), increasing soil salinity (medium confidence), widening inequalities and loss of rural smallholder livelihoods with weak governance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Genetic improvements through modern biotechnology have the potential to increase climate resilience in food production systems (high confidence), but with biophysical ceilings, and technical, agroecosystem, socioeconomic and political variables strongly influence and limit the uptake of climate resilient crops, particularly for smallholders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Large-scale land deals for climate mitigation have trade-offs with livelihoods, water and food security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Afforestation programmes without adequate safeguards adversely affect Indigenous Peoples’ rights, land tenure and adaptive capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some mitigation measures, such as carbon capture and storage, bio-energy and afforestation, have a high water footprint (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased demand for aquaculture, animal and marine foods and energy products will intensify competition and potential conflict over land and water resources, particularly in low- and medium-income countries (high confidence), with negative impacts on food security and deforestation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)