rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
These impacts disproportionately affect margin- alised groups, amplifying inequalities and undermining sustainable development across all regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change increases the threat of chronic and sudden onset development challenges, such as poverty traps and food insecurity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation interventions and transformative solutions that prioritise inclusive and wide-ranging climate resilient development and the reduction of poverty and inequality are increasingly seen as necessary to minimise loss and damage from climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed average mortality from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for regions and countries ranked as very high vulnerable, such as Mozambique, Somalia, Nigeria, Afghanistan and Haiti compared to very low vulnerable regions and countries, such as UK, Australia, Canada and Sweden in the last decade (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Over 3.3 billion people are living in countries classified as very highly or highly vulnerable, while around 1.8 billion people live in countries with low or very low vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Approximately 3.6 billion people live in low and lower middle-income countries, which are most vulnerable and disproportionally bear the human costs of dis- asters due to extreme weather events and hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vulnerability is a result of many interlinked issues concerning poverty, migration, in- equality, access to basic services, education, institutions and govern- ance capacities, often made more complex by past developments, such as histories of colonialism (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
If future climate change under high emissions scenarios continues and increases risks, without strong adaptation measures, losses and damages will likely2 be concentrated among the poorest vulnerable populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under an inequality scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4) the projected number of people living in extreme poverty may increase by 122 million by 2030 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Gender inequality and discrimination are among the barriers to adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Even with moderate climate change3 people in vulner - able regions will experience a further erosion of livelihood security that can interact with humanitarian crises, such as displacement and forced migration (high confidence) and violent conflict, and lead to social tipping points (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The most vulnerable regions are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Areas of high human vulnerability are characterised by larger transboundary regional clusters (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Greater investments are required under higher levels of global warming and of inequality (Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5; RCP8.5 and SSP4) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic is also influencing the capacities of governmental institutions in developing nations to support planned adaptation and poverty reduction of most vulnerable people/groups, since the crisis also means significant reductions in tax revenues (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Enabling environments that sup- port sustainable development are essential for adaptation and climate resilient development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Enabling and supportive environments for adaptation share common governance characteristics, including multiple actors and assets, multiple centres of power at different levels and an effective vertical and horizontal integration between levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Enabling conditions can support livelihood strategies that do not undermine human well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Improving coherence between adaptations of different social groups and sectors at different scales can reduce maladaptation, enable mitigation and advance progress towards climate resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate justice and rights-based approaches are increasingly recognised as key principles within mitigation and adaptation strategies and projects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Narrowing gender gaps can play a transformative role in pursuing climate justice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Synergies between adaptation and mitigation exist, and these can have benefits for the poor (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Appropriate governance, in- cluding mainstreaming and policy coherence, supported by adaptation finance that targets the poor and marginalised, is essential for adaptation and climate compatible development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Recent research shows that climate change impacts may exacerbate poverty indirectly through increasing cost of food, housing and healthcare, among other rising costs borne by the poor (Islam et al., 2014; Ebi et al., 2017; Hallegatte et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
One of the key factors that drives disproportionate impacts among poor households globally is lost agricultural income (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Figure 8.2 reflects the fundamental threat that climate hazards pose to the survival of plants, livestock and fish, as well as the people on which livelihoods depend (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It is revealed that warming trends and droughts pose greatest risks to the widest array of livelihood resources, and are particularly detrimental to crops and human health, a long-term requirement for livelihoods and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Salinity is a secondary hazard related to droughts, coastal flooding and sea level rise, and poses a fundamental risk to agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is also robust evidence for rainfall variability driving short-term impacts to agricultural productivity as well as permanent loss of agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The hazards most prevalent in all regions include warming trends, droughts and sea level rise (Figure 8.2c), and undermine crop productivity, crop varieties, and cropland in most regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Along coastlines, climate hazards threaten livelihoods particularly exposed to extreme weather, flooding and sea level rise, and where poor populations are heavily dependent on agriculture and fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasingly, intersections of age, gender, socioeconomic class, ethnicity and race are recognised as important to the climate risks and differential impacts and losses experienced by vulnerable, marginal and poor in societies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Migration and displacement are directly induced by the impacts of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
First, climate change impacts may undermine progress toward various SDGs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At the same time, there is increasing evidence that successful adapta- tion depends on equitable development and climate justice; for exam- ple, gender inequality (SDG 5) and discrimination (SDG 16) are among the barriers to effective adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
They do not have uniform climate risk profiles, and not all adaptations are equally appropriate in all contexts (Nurse et al., 2014) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent literature provides evidence that impacts of climate change together with non-climatic drivers can create poverty– environment traps that may increase the probability of long-term and chronic poverty (Figure 8.4; Hallegatte et al., 2015; Djalante et al., 2020; Malhi et al., 2020; McCloskey et al., 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This literature underscores that approaches to assess resilience, vulnerability and human well-being include global assessments that can inform strategies and priority settings for adaptation and risk reduction in the context of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is high agreement that, with global warming of about 3°C, such undermining of poverty reduction efforts will intensify and more regions will face development setbacks due to the spatial and temporal expansion of climate hazards, including the further erosion of capital that enables people to develop adaptive capacities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reducing vulnerability to climate change is therefore indispensable for climate justice and just transitions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The sale of property particularly reduces the asset base, creates long-term vulnerabilities to future events and can trigger chronic poverty (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In South Asia, there is robust evidence of economic impacts of climate change (Cao et al., 2021), for example in the Sundarbans (a transboundary ecosystem with components in both India and Bangladesh, with the problem of unproductive livelihoods being common across residents of both countries) observations show local livelihoods are rapidly becoming unproductive (loss of fish, and increasing salination making agriculture increasingly difficult) (Ghosh, 2018); conditions that are exacerbated by climate change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Non-economic losses are particularly relevant for understanding adverse consequences of climate change on the poor and most vulnerable population groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Examples of livelihood shifts across Asia and Southeast Asia (e.g., Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Vietnam) include rural communities in coastal areas, urban settlements that are experiencing economic losses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change-related extreme weather events, such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, can have detrimental impacts on crop production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Africa, many communities already experience drought- and flood- related disasters (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Food security and agriculture productivity are examples of livelihood resources most at risk to climate hazards (see Figure 8.2) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The multiple shocks of extreme events reduce crop yields, destroy homes, and lead to loss of infrastructure and displacement (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the Himalayas (part of the Hindu Kush Himalaya, HKH) temperature warming is expected to increase up to 2°C by 2050 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Likewise, in the Amazon basin, climate change hazards of severe droughts and floods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The increase in global temperature level up to 2°C will exacerbate food and water insecurity in the Amazon (Betts et al., 2018; Hoegh- Guldberg et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The categories in Table 8.5 also represent important future compounding and complex risks that can emerge due to maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In SRCCL (IPCC, 2019a), land degradation and climate change compounded to highly expose the livelihoods of the poor to climate hazards and caused food insecurity (high confidence), migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Some authors suggest including Indigenous knowledge in the IPCC assessment process should be of high priority, as it is becoming increasingly relevant for climate services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CSA, carbon-forestry programmes and the water–energy–climate nexus show trade-offs across levels and sectors with identified winners and losers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Depending on the farming and pastoral systems and level of development, reductions in the emissions intensity of livestock products may lead to absolute reductions in GHG emissions (IPCC, 2019a) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Significant synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, for example, through SLM approaches (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Meanwhile, the livelihood resources that are globally at greatest risk include people’s bodily health, food security and agricultural productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence suggests that the fundamental challenge of climate change to livelihoods is that rising temperatures, drought and other hazards endanger human life, and the lives of plants and animals that humans rely on to survive (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This chapter builds on AR5 and the IPCC SR 1.5°C on key limits to the adaptation of natural and social systems that are compounded by the effects of poverty and inequality, such as on water scarcity, ecosystems alteration and degradation, coastal cities in relation to sea level rise, cyclones and coastal erosion, food systems and human health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change risks could have substantial negative impacts on climate-sensitive livelihoods of smallholder farmers, fisheries communities, Indigenous People, urban poor and informal settlements, with limits to adaptation evidenced in the loss income, ecosystems, health and increasing migration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For instance, a hard limit associated with losses of coral reefs in a 1.5°C warmer world will lead to substantial loss of income and livelihoods for coastal communities (high confidence), including loss of culture- and place-based attachment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Their threshold will affect residents of Arctic regions dependent on hunting and fishing livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Thus, without sustainable, equitable and urgent adaptation measures, maladaptation risks are likely to further increase vulnerability, marginalisation and ecological tipping points among the poor within countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce damages to African economies, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems compared to higher levels of global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Finance has not targeted more vulnerable countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing public and private finance flows by billions of dollars per year, increasing direct access to multilateral funds, strengthening project pipeline development and shifting more finance to project implementation would help realise transformative adaptation in Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Concessional finance will be required for adaptation in low-income settings (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, climate change adaptation benefits pandemic preparedness, ‘One Health’ approaches benefit human and ecosystem health, and ecosystem-based adaptation can deliver adap- tation and emissions mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Africa), increasing exposure to pluvial and riverine flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although yield declines for some crops may be partially compensated by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, global warming above 2°C will result in yield reductions for staple crops across most of Africa compared to 2005 yields (e.g., 20–40% decline in west African maize yields), even when considering adaptation options and increasing CO 2 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Above 2°C of global warming, distribution and seasonal transmission of vector-borne diseases is expected to increase, exposing tens of millions more people, mostly in west, east and southern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Above 1.5°C risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Above 2°C global warming, thousands to tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are projected, mainly in west, central and east Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
High population growth and urbanisation in low-elevation coastal zones will be a major driver of exposure to sea level rise in the next 50 years (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Further increasing CO 2 concentrations could increase woody plant cover, but increasing aridity could counteract this, destabilising forest and peatland carbon stores in central Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Changes in vegetation cover could occur rapidly if tipping points are crossed {9.6.1, 9.6.2, 9.8.2} African biodiversity loss is projected to be widespread and escalating with every 0.5°C increase above present-day global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most African heritage sites are neither prepared for, nor adapted to, future climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Integrated water management measures including sub-national financing, demand management through subsidies, rates and taxes, and sustainable water technologies can reduce water insecurity caused by either drought or floods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate information services, institutional capacity building, secure land tenure, and strategic financial investment can help overcome these barriers to adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The contribution of Africa is among the lowest of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions responsible for human-induced climate change and it has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions currently (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yet Africa has already experienced widespread impacts from human-induced climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent; heatwaves have also become longer. Drying is projected particularly for west and southwestern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-related research in Africa faces severe funding constraints with unequal funding relationships between countries and with research partners in Europe and North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These unequal funding relations influence inequalities in climate-related research design, participation and dissemination between African researchers and researchers from high-income countries outside Africa, in ways that can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
In scenarios with low adaptation (that is largely localised and incremental), the transition to high risk—widespread and severe impacts—has already begun at the current level of global warming for biodiversity loss (high confidence), and begins below 1.5°C global warming for both food production (medium confidence) and mortality and morbidity from heat and infectious disease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation costs in Africa are expected to rise rapidly as global warming increases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The amounts of finance being mobilised internationally to support adaptation in African countries are billions of US dollars less than adaptation cost estimates, and finance has targeted mitigation more than adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Africa, placing cross-sectoral approaches at the core of CRD provides significant opportunities to deliver large benefits and/or avoided damages across multiple sectors including water, health, ecosystems and economies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Despite these challenges, the inclusive nature of co-production has had a positive influence on the uptake of CS into decision making where it has been applied (Table 9.4; Figure 9.12; Vincent et al., 2018; Vogel et al., 2019; Carter et al., 2020; Chiputwa et al., 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Most African countries are expected to experience high temperatures unprecedented in their recent history earlier in this century than generally wealthier, higher latitude countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A shift to a later onset and end of the west African monsoon is also reported in west Africa and Sahel (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought in the region has increased in frequency since the 1950s (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Although there are uncertainties in rainfall projections over the Sahel (Klutse et al., 2018; Gutiérrez et al., 2021), CMIP6 models project monsoon rainfall amounts to increase by approximately 2.9% per degree of warming (Jin et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020a), therefore, at higher levels of warming and towards the end of the century, a wetter monsoon is projected in the eastern Sahel (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
According to CMIP6 and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) models, the annual average number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will increase between 14–27 days at GWL 2°C and 33–59 days at GWL 3°C above the 61–63 days for 1995 –2014 (Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is some evidence of drying since the mid-20th century through decreased mean rainfall and increased precipitation deficits (Gutiérrez et al., 2021), as well as increases in meteorological, agricultural and ecological drought (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At GWL 3°C and GWL 4.4°C, an increased mean annual rainfall of 10–25% is projected by regional climate models (Coppola et al., 2014; Pinto et al., 2015) and the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heavy rainfall events are projected to increase over the region at global warming of 2°C and higher (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since the 1960s, decreasing precipitation trends have been detected over the South African winter rainfall region (high confidence) and the far eastern parts of South Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Mean annual rainfall in the summer rainfall region of South Afria is projected to decrease by 10–20%, accompanied by an increase in the number of consecutive dry days during the rainy season under RCP8.5. The western parts of the region are projected to become drier, with increasing drought frequency, intensity and duration likely under RCP8.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in the region at 1°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming, however, they are projected to become more intense with higher wind speeds so when they do make landfall the impacts are expected to be high (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Reducing emissions and limiting warming to lower levels reduces risk to these systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In Africa, IKLK are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge, with the potential to enhance the management of natural hazards and climate variability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased temperature, changes in rainfall and reduced wind speed altered the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, affecting water quality and productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs support nursery habitats for fish, sequester carbon, trap sediment and provide shoreline protection (Ghermandi et al., 2019). Climate change is compromising these ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The magnitude and extent of local extinctions predicted across Africa increase substantially under all future GWLs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing global extinction risk and biodiversity loss across more of Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 1.5°C of global warming, mangroves will be exposed to sedimentation and sea level rise, while seagrass ecosystems will be most affected by heat extremes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Over 90% of east African coral reefs are projected to be destroyed by bleaching at 2°C of global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
This declining carbon storage may be offset by CO 2 fertilization (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Climate change is projected to change patterns of invasive species spread (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is already negatively affecting tourism in Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the effectiveness of African protected areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)