rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Permafrost thaw, sea-level rise and reduced sea ice protection also presents the potential for the introduction and propagation of invasive species (Chan et al., 2019; Rosenhaim et al., 2019), and sovereignty tensions with implications for global geopolitics (Drewniak et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP6.2.6 Human Health and Wellness in the Arctic Climate change continues to have wide-ranging physical human health risks in the Arctic, particularly for Indigenous Peoples (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has negative, widespread and cumulative impacts on mental health in the Arctic, particularly for Indigenous Peoples (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The negative mental health impacts from climate change are amplified among those most reliant on the environment for subsistence and livelihoods, those who already face chronic physical or mental health issues, and those facing socioeconomic inequities and marginalisation, particularly for Indigenous Peoples (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will increase mental health risks in the Arctic in the future (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Therefore, effective responses to climate change risks for Indigenous Peoples are self-determined and underpinned by Indigenous knowledge (IK) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
CCP6 2348Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar Regions Sector Direct and cascading risksEnabling principles of cli- mate resilience pathwaysAnticipated future condi- tions/level of certaintyCompounding risks (non-cli- matic factors) Non-renewable resource extraction (Arctic only) (CCP6.2.4.1)Reduced sea ice improves access to non-renewable resources in remote Arctic regions, while warming temperature and thawing permafrost affect production levels, quality, and reliability and season length of ice roads, leading to increased operational costsInvestment in climate-resilient infrastructure and low-emission transportation (shipping) and investment in solar powered ships and low-impact modular mining camp infrastructureIncrease in mining in newly accessible marine regions (medium confidence), frequent false starts (i.e., due to climatic and non-climatic factors) (high confidence) and high levels of operational uncertainty (i.e., commodity prices, economic trends, climate risks) (very high confidence)Commodity prices; global economic trends and shocks; Indigenous rights and decisions; changing regulatory environments, geopolitics, global demand for resources Tourism (CCP6.2.4.2)Increased demand for polar tourism activities including development of ‘last chance tourism’ market; increased tourism improves economic conditions but leads to increased environmental and cultural impactsFinancial resources for service and infrastructure development; Indigenous self-determination and development of co-management approaches for natural and cultural attractions; development of multi-stakeholder/rightsholder tourism task teamsPolar tourism demand will continue to increase, especially for cruise and yacht experiences (high confidence) and enhance risks related to ship groundings, accidents and incidents (medium confidence)Limited search and rescue capacity, poor infrastructure, aging expedition cruise ship fleet, uncharted waters, geological and sovereignty debates, global economic trends, unforeseen events (i.e., severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), COVID-19) altering tourism demand patterns Reindeer herding (CCP6.2.3.1; 6.2.3.2; 6.2.5; Box CCP6.2)Rain-on-snow events causing high mortality of herds, especially in the autumn season; shrubification of tundra pasture lowering forage qualityFlexibility in movement to respond to changes in pastures, secure land use rights; adaptive management; continued economic viability and cultural tradition; self-determination in decision making; adequate support for communication and technological services; Indigenous rights upheld and protectedIncreased frequency of extreme events and changing forage quality adding to vulnerabilities of reindeer and herders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Declines in catch impact livelihoods, coastal communities, and pose a risk to regional and global food and nutritional security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Adaptation at the local, individual, and household level under low mitigation scenarios will be costly and possibly undermined by the scale and pace of change, including climate shocks and extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Efforts to minimise and prevent extinctions; preservation of ecosystem processes and habitats during critical life stages; coordinated governance; measures and planning that consider dynamic interactions within and among social and ecological systems are more effectiveWithout institutional investment in sustaining climate resilience in ecosystems across sectors there is a high risk of failure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Human health is generally under- represented in adaptation initiatives, along with adaptations being developed within larger Arctic settlements (Ford et al., 2014; Canosa et al., 2020), and in many sectors decisions continue to be made without explicit inclusion of climate change impacts and risk in planning and design (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the Arctic, large landscapes, dispersed population centres, limited resources and settler colonialism are structural barriers to effective planning, emergency response, and relief and recovery from climate impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Large ‘responsiveness gaps’ between impacts and implementation, approaches that fail to consider dynamic responses within social and ecological systems (which amplify or attenuate climate impacts), and a paucity of a priori planning can contribute to maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Inclusive and participatory decision making underpins long-term resilience to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The rapid pace of change, such as sea ice loss, can outpace ecological processes and induce substantial ecological shifts (CCP6.2) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The speed of climate change in the Arctic limits options for adaptation in communities who rely on a narrow resource base, when adaptation involves loss of culture and livelihoods, and when the costs of adaptation make it infeasible (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Notably, terrestrial areas of greatest interest for infrastructure development, agriculture and visitation potential are often also the same areas that have been identified as culturally and ecologically significant (PEW, 2016; Eliasson et al., 2017; Grant et al., 2021) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For the Antarctic, the governance for managing climate impacts is emerging, particularly for terrestrial and nearshore habitats (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP6.4.2 Inclusive, Integrated Co-management Inclusive, low-cost participatory decision making can deliver equitable responses to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The capacity of governance systems in some Arctic regions to respond to climate change has strengthened recently (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For residents in the Arctic, a sustainable development pathway has been found to be highly effective if a self-determined development model is employed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
CCP7 2371Tropical Forests Cross-Chapter Paper 7 Executive Summary Over 420 million ha of forest were lost to deforestation from 1990 to 2020; more than 90% of that loss took place in tropical areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is altering the structure and species composition of tropical tree communities (high confidence), including transitions from moist to drier forest in regions such as the Amazon (high confidence), and movement of species from lower to higher elevations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite CO 2 fertilisation, ongoing climate change has weakened the carbon sink potential of tropical forests in Amazonia and, to a lesser extent, in Africa and Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Deforestation generally reduces rainfall and enhances temperatures, with effects depending on scales (high confidence), while often increasing surface runoff (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Continued deforestation-driven landscape drying and fragmentation will aggravate fire risk and reduce forest resilience, leading to degradation or savannisation of the tropical forest biomes, in particular in combination with climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Forest restoration using a diverse mix of native species can help rebuild the climate resilience of tropical forests, but is best implemented alongside other sustainable forest management strategies and adaptation interventions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.Community-based adaptation, built on Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IK and LK) over centuries or millennia, is often identified as an effective adaptation strategy to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For successful adaptation of tropical forest communities, it is vital to consider IK and LK in addition to modern scientific approaches, together with consideration of non-climatic vulnerabilities (e.g., poverty, gender inequality and power asymmetries) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transformative and sustainable practices are required for effective management of tropical forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Tropical deforestation is largely driven by agriculture, both from subsistence farming and industrial agriculture (e.g., oil palm, timber plantations, soybeans, livestock) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While poverty and population growth combined with poor governance often fuel subsistence agriculture (high confidence), industrial agriculture is often driven by international market forces for commodities and large- scale land acquisitions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transformative levers towards improving environmental governance and resilience of tropical forests include: incentivising and building capacity for environmental responsibility and discontinuing harmful subsidies and disincentives; reforming segmented decision-making to promote integration across sectors and jurisdictions; pursuing pre-emptive and precautionary actions; managing for resilient social and ecological systems in the face of uncertainty and complexity; strengthening environmental laws and policies and their implementation; acknowledging land tenure and rights; and inclusive stakeholder participation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP7 2372Cross-Chapter Paper 7 Tropical Forests CCP7.1 Introduction Climate change is already impacting tropical forests around the world, including through distributional shifts of forest biomes, changes in species composition, biomass, pests and diseases, and increases in forest fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reducing direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and forest degradation is therefore critical to building, maintaining or enhancing the resilience of tropical forests against climate and non-climate drivers alike (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To the degree to which forests are affected by climate change and other drivers, their resilience against these stressors is diminishing leading to a reduction in the regulating, supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services they provide (Alroy, 2017; Cadman et al., 2017; Pörtner et al., 2021) (Chapter 2) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While strong mitigation efforts are fundamental to minimising future climate impacts on forests, forest management can be improved in many places in support of enhancing the resilience of tropical forests, often with significant co-benefits for carbon storage, biodiversity, food security and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While there are numerous approaches to managing forests and forest landscapes sustainably, an element that appears to be critical is property rights and tenure arrangements allowing stewards of the land, including Indigenous Peoples, securing long- term access and utilisation of forest resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Overall, the net loss rate has slightly decreased (−4%) since 1990 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP7.2.3 Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Deforestation and forest degradation both affect carbon stocks, biodiversity loss and the provision of ecosystem services, leading to a reduction in resilience to climate change and exacerbating forest landscape vulnerability even in the absence of direct anthropogenic action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is also clear evidence of deforestation influencing temperatures and the hydrological cycle at local to regional scales resulting in reduced precipitation and evaporation and increased runoff relative to unaffected areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Therefore, besides greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, reducing the driving forces leading to deforestation and forest degradation is of the utmost importance for forest resilience, biodiversity protection, avoiding regional climatic changes and the provision of critical ecosystem services, and communities whose livelihoods depend on forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Though not as visible as direct drivers, indirect or underlying causes can greatly influence direct drivers, and must be addressed to reduce pressures on forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP7 2376Cross-Chapter Paper 7 Tropical Forests International and market forces, particularly commodity markets and, increasingly, large-scale land acquisitions are also key underlying drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP7 2378Cross-Chapter Paper 7 Tropical Forests CCP7.3.3 Fire Risks from Climate Change in Tropical Forests Temperature rise and prolonged droughts increase the danger of fires in drained peatlands and tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the Amazon (da Silva et al., 2018; Pan et al., 2018; Sullivan Martin et al., 2020), resulting in large carbon emissions, which reached 11.3 Tg CO 2 day−1 during September–October 2015 (Huijnen et al., 2016; Yin et al., 2020) and changes in forest composition and biodiversity (Asner et al., 2000; Hoffmann et al., 2003) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In many cases, tree mortality due to fire is poorly recorded in the literature, but the available data suggest that fire-induced mortality has increased in recent years (Figure CCP7.2) (Malhi et al., 2014; Brando et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observational data show that structurally intact old-growth tropical forests have been net sinks of atmospheric carbon in recent decades, but there is evidence that the capacity of such intact tropical forests to build up carbon stock may be limited as biomass peaked during the 1990s and has since weakened by 30% in the Amazon since the 1990s (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (Jia et al., 2019) and IPCC AR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) both describe significant climate-related changes resulting from tropical deforestation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Deforestation generally reduces rainfall and enhances temperatures and landscape dryness; effects that increase with the scale of forest loss, whereas reforestation and afforestation generally reverses these effects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Modelling studies estimate that large-scale tropical deforestation will contribute to average warming of the deforested areas with +0.61 ± 0.48°C and will lead to large changes in diurnal temperature ranges owing to a reduction of nocturnal cooling (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Large-scale deforestation will also strongly decrease average regional precipitation and evapotranspiration and further delay the onset of the wet season, enhancing the chance of dry spells and intensifying dry seasons, but the magnitude of the decline depends on the scale and type of land-cover change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Continued forest landscape drying and fragmentation in connection with deforestation may also enhance surface flow variability (Farinosi et al., 2019; Souza et al., 2019) and will aggravate the risk of forest dieback (Zemp et al., 2017), elevate forest flammability (Alencar et al., 2015) and increase fire incidence (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The dearth of data for tropical forest regions other than the Amazon makes assessments of deforestation-related changes in temperature, precipitation and streamflow difficult (high confidence), and hampers estimates of tropical forest ecosystem health, biodiversity loss and vulnerability to current and future climatic and other pressures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Livelihoods, gender, land-use change and dependency on forest resources for food, fuel, housing and other needs have been identified as key elements of vulnerability in Indigenous Peoples and rural communities in Africa and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globalised trade relations, agricultural expansion, illegal activities and violent conflicts have been identified as important non-climatic drivers of forest degradation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Actions to protect the extent or reduce the disturbance pressure on forest systems contribute to the capacity of these systems to respond to climate change (increasing resistance and resilience) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous knowledge systems, embedded in social and cultural structures, are integral to climate resilience and adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Role of IK and LK and CBA for Climate Change Adaptation in Tropical Forests Local forest and Indigenous forest management systems have developed over long time periods, generating social practices and institutions that have supported livelihoods and cultures for generations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Archaeological evidence shows that humans have manipulated tropical forests for at least 45,000 years (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Integration of IK and LK Systems, CBA and Modern Scientific Systems Several authors have highlighted the need to foster a respectful dialogue between Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) and modern science towards a holistic research model (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Forest management strategies must take into account the wider picture if they seek to be not just temporally effective (at best), but transformative and sustainable over time (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Maximising tropical forest extent has well-described benefits in mitigating CO2 emissions and in the role of forests regulating global climate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ensuring forested areas are large and/or interconnected including the use of specific climate refugia and climate corridors is recommended for climate adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP7.6 Governance of Tropical Forests for Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change Deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests has grown in prominence as priorities for environmental governance in the face of climate change, given the large share of forest and land use GHG emissions in the national profiles of tropical forest countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Policy responses towards conservation and ecosystem resilience are found to be insufficient to stem the direct and indirect drivers of nature deterioration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For governance measures to be effective, it is necessary to alter the direct and underlying drivers that are leading to forest destruction or impeding the implementation of sustainable forest management practices and actions to restore degraded forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is also stronger evidence for impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems, including the observed widespread mortality of warm water corals, far reaching shifts in phenology in marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the expansion of tropical species into the ranges of temperate species, and boreal species moving into Arctic regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A negative impact of long-term climate change on crop yields has been identified in some regions (e.g., wheat yields in Europe) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Overall, there is extensive observational evidence that extreme ambient temperatures increase human mortality (high confidence) and that the occurrence of water- and vector-borne diseases is sensitive to weather conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate variability and extremes are associated with increased prevalence of conflict, with more consistent evidence for low- intensity organised violence than for major armed conflict. Compared with other socioeconomic drivers, the link is relatively weak and conditional on high population size, low socioeconomic development, high political marginalisation and high agricultural dependence (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Literature suggests a larger climate-related influence on the dynamics of conflict than on the likelihood of initial conflict outbreak (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Evidence focuses on constraints that may lead to limits at some point of the adaptation process, with less information on how limits may be related to different levels of socioeconomic or climatic change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Beginning at 1.5°C, autonomous and evolutionary adaptation responses by terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems face hard limits, resulting in biodiversity decline, species extinction and loss of related livelihoods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation to address risks of heat stress, heat mortality and reduced capacities for outdoor work for humans face soft and hard limits across regions beginning at 1.5°C, and are particularly relevant for regions with warm climates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As sea levels rise and extreme events intensify, coastal communities face soft limits due to financial, institutional and socioeconomic constraints reducing the efficacy of coastal protection and accommodation approaches and resulting in loss of life and economic damages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Soft and hard limits for agricultural production are related to water availability and the uptake and effectiveness of climate-resilient crops which are constrained by socioeconomic and political challenges (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While the rate, extent and timing of climate hazards largely determine hard limits of biophysical systems, these factors appear to be less influential in determining soft limits for human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts of climate change may increase financial constraints (high confidence) and contribute to soft limits to adaptation being reached (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These key risk are represented in eight so-called Representative Key Risks (RKRs) clusters of key risks relating to low-lying coastal systems; terrestrial and ocean ecosystems; critical physical infrastructure, networks and services; living standards; human health; food security; water security; and peace and human mobility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For most Representative Key Risks (RKRs), potentially global and systemically pervasive risks become severe in the case of high warming, combined with high exposure/vulnerability, low adaptation, or both (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Under these conditions, there would be severe and pervasive risks to critical infrastructure (high confidence) and to human health from heat-related mortality, to low-lying coastal areas, aggregate economic output, and livelihoods (all medium confidence), of armed conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Under these conditions, there would be severe and pervasive risks associated with water scarcity and water-related disasters (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)