rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Impacts are projected to increase nonlinearly during the 21st century with higher sea level rise, because coastal flooding will progressively change from overtopping to overflow, high-tide flooding and ultimately permanent flooding and shoreline retreat (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing heat waves, combined with drought and land use change, reduce fuel moisture, thereby increasing fire risk, extending the duration of fire seasons and increasing the likelihood of large, severe fires (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will likely reduce crop yields in many areas (Table CCP4.1), mainly due to higher temperatures affecting crop phenology and the shortening of the crop growing season (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP4.3.5 Human Health and Cultural Heritage Warming is projected to impact human health, mostly through increased intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme high temperatures, hot days and nights and consequently cooling degree days will likely increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level rise will increase these risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many engineering-based coastal adaptation imply large residual impacts on coastal ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed changes include increasing temperatures, changing seasonal weather patterns, reductions in snow cover extent and duration at low elevation, loss of glacier mass, increased permafrost thaw and an increase in the number and size of glacier lakes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Around two-thirds of treeline ecotones have also shifted upwards in recent decades, though these shifts are not ubiquitous and slower than expected based on rising temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Impacts on biological communities and animal species are also increasingly being reported, with species of lower elevations increasing in mountain regions, creating more homogeneous vegetation and increasing risks to mountain-top species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These changes have variable impacts on water availability for people and economies, contributing to increasing tensions or conflicts over water resources, especially in seasonally dry regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.Climate-change-driven changes in precipitation, river flow regimes and landslides affect the production and use of energy in mountain regions, in particular hydropower (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The combined effects of climate change, hydropower development and other human interventions have exacerbated water security problems and social injustice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Agriculture has been negatively affected through increased exposure to hazards such as droughts and floods, changes in the onset of seasons, the timing and availability of water, increasing pests and decreasing pollinator diversity, which in turn have negatively influenced overall food production, dietary diversity and the nutritional value of food (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Negative climate impacts on pastoralism, such as drought- induced degradation of rangelands and pastures, have affected livestock productivity and the livelihood of pastoralists, while other non-climatic factors, such as land use change and management, also play a role (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Exposure and vulnerability exacerbate the negative effects of climate impacts on livelihoods and intertwine with power imbalances and gender and other inequalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For winter activities such as skiing, diminishing snow at lower elevations has challenged operating conditions (medium confidence), increasing the demand for and dependence on snow management measures such as snow-making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-induced hazards are negatively affecting some climbing, mountaineering and hiking routes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In some regions, options to change routes or shift seasons to reduce hazard exposure have been employed as adaptation strategies, with variable outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In some cases, higher temperatures and extreme heat conditions at lower elevations have made some mountain destinations more appealing, increasing the potential for summer visitation demand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP5 2276Cross-Chapter Paper 5 Mountains further downstream (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As a result, the number of disasters has increased; however, there is limited evidence that this is due to changes in the underlying hazard processes, pointing mainly to increasing levels of exposure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation responses to climate-driven impacts in mountain regions vary significantly in terms of goals and priorities, scope, depth and speed of implementation, governance and modes of decision-making and the extent of financial and other resources to implement them (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many low-elevation and small glaciers around the world will lose most of their total mass at a 1.5°C global warming level (GWL) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, nearly all mountain regions will face at least moderate and some regions even high risks at around 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This may enable some species to persist in a region, though it may pose a threat to cold-adapted species, including endemics, which may be outcompeted (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Intangible losses and loss of cultural values will become increasingly more widespread in mountain regions, mainly driven by a decline in snow and ice and an increase in intangible harm to people from hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Reducing climate risks will depend on addressing the root causes of vulnerability, which include poverty, marginalisation and inequitable gender dynamics (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risk management strategies that better integrate the adaptation needs of all affected sectors, account for different risk perceptions and build on multiple and diverse knowledge systems, including Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, are important enabling conditions to reduce risk severity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There are increasing calls for more ambitious climate action in mountains, providing impetus for stronger cooperation within and across mountain regions and downstream areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Mountain river systems are especially sensitive to and affected by climate change and continuing anthropogenic disturbance, including water pollution, hydropower development, water withdrawals for agriculture and human consumption and biodiversity loss and ecosystem changes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many mountain regions have one or more cryosphere components (glaciers, permafrost and perennial or seasonal snow), and the mountain cryosphere is among the natural systems most sensitive to climate change worldwide (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The SROCC assessed a decline in all cryosphere components due to climate change over recent decades, i.e., for low-elevation snow cover (high confidence), permafrost (high confidence) and glaciers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Groundwater may provide some resilience to loss of melt water from glacier and snow decline, but in the longer term groundwater recharge and contribution to streamflow are expected to decrease with ongoing climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A majority of documented adaptation efforts in mountain regions address water-related aspects (precipitation variability and extremes, including drought, water availability, floods) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Taken together, this evidence suggests that a significant risk exists of wildfire exacerbating other impacts of climate change on already vulnerable ecosystems in many mountain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The combined effects of climate change, hydropower development and further anthropogenic effects in upstream mountain basins have increased and are expected to further negatively affect several aspects of ecosystem functioning and water security (e.g., negative effects on river geometry, water chemistry, sediment transport, fish composition and migration) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With respect to hydropower, mountains play a unique role in the production of renewable energy for large downstream populations, but it also comes with important trade-offs affecting mountain ecosystems and populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Medicinal and aromatic plants and their secondary metabolites are also observed to be affected by climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Experimental trials have shown that when medicinal plants are stressed by drought, phytochemical content increases, either by a decrease in biomass or by an increase in the actual production of metabolites (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Energy provision in and around mountain settlements is another key sector affected by climate-related impacts (Hock et al., 2019; CCP5.2.2.2), which bears relevance for the adaptation prospects for urban mountain settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP5.2.6 Natural Hazards and Disasters Climate- and weather-related disasters in mountain regions have increased over the last three decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Disaster frequency shows increasing trends in the HKH, the Andes and mountain regions in Africa, whereas no clear trends are observed for the European Alps and Central Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Floods, debris flows, landslides and avalanches are the most frequent hazards affecting the highest number of people in mountain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Overview of key observed impacts on mountain communities and adaptation responses References and relevant AR6 WGII sections Mountain livelihoods and poverty Impacts –In some mountain regions, the incidence of poverty can be higher compared to other areas, with observed impacts of climate change intensifying the deterioration of socioeconomic conditions that support livelihoods, thereby exacerbating already existing conditions of non-climate-related vulnerabilities and livelihood insecurity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Capacity-building interventions strengthen adaptation capacity and links to access institutional support (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Overview of key observed impacts and adaptation on select livelihood activities and economic sectorsReferences and relevant AR6 WGII sections Mountain agriculture and pastoralism Impacts –Changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns affect the timing and availability of water for agricultural activities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP5 2288Cross-Chapter Paper 5 Mountains The characteristics of natural hazards in mountain areas have been widely explored, and evidence suggests that conditions favouring cascading impacts are a common feature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence from different mountain regions shows that adaptation and risk reduction efforts are less successful if they focus on hazards or risks without considering diverse risk and value perceptions of the affected people (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Previous experience and local social contexts of exposure to climate-related disasters affect people’s perceptions and influence the patterns associated with disaster risk management and associated coping strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Important synergies exist between disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development in mountain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, the vast majority of detected impacts imply negative impacts on natural and human systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since IPCC AR5, the evidence for meaningful climate change impacts being reported using local knowledge sources has increased substantially (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation measures most commonly found include farming- related changes (e.g., resilient or drought-tolerant crop varieties, irrigation techniques, crop storage and livestock insurance schemes), infrastructure development, Indigenous knowledge, community- based capacity-building and ecosystem-based adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Several lines of evidence converge, indicating that most observed adaptations in mountains are incremental in nature and not transformative (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Limits to adaptation are found in a majority (>80%) of the assessed adaptation studies; around half of the studies reported soft limits, and less than a third identified both hard and soft limits to adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Overall, adaptation in mountain regions is taking place in various ways, in different sectors, scales, levels, quality, and effectiveness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change impacts on food, fibre and ecosystem products will be highly variable across mountain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Water resources in mountains and dependent lowlands will continue to be strongly impacted by climate change throughout the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The difference in impacts will be particularly strong in regions that greatly depend on glacier and snowmelt and, in pronounced dry seasons (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many low- elevation and small glaciers around the world will lose most of their total mass at 1.5°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For tropical and mid-latitude mountains, around half of the current ice mass can be preserved under low-emission scenarios, while between two-thirds and up to more than 90% will be lost under high emission scenarios compared to the 2000s (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources will grow by mid-century across several climate and socioeconomic scenarios, and several seasonally dry or semiarid mountain regions (e.g., parts of South Asia, North America) are projected to be highly dependent on such resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, water supply from glacier melt will decrease once source glaciers pass peak discharge (Huss and Hock, 2018), and the areas with available sediment will grow as glaciers shrink, posing potential risks to downstream populations and assets (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher-latitude and high-elevation locations generally exhibit delayed declines in snow reliability compared to lower-latitude and lower-elevation locations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In general, climate change impacts and risks to ski tourism are found to be spatially heterogeneous, within and across local and international markets, with potential for significant disruptions to related socioeconomic sectors due to a growing mismatch between ski area supply and skier demand in the coming decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Severe damage and disruptions to people and infrastructure from floods are projected to increase in Northwestern South America (NWS), South Asia (SAS), Tibetan Plateau (TIB) and Central Asia (WCA) between 1.5°C and 3°C GWL, mainly driven by river floods and an increase in the number of glacial lakes with high potential for outburst (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected changes in ice and snowmelt, as well as seasonal increases in extreme rainfall and permafrost thaw, will favour chain reactions and cascading processes, which can have devastating downstream effects well beyond the site of the original event (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The incidence of disasters is projected to increase in the future because some hazards will become more pervasive, with an increase in the exposure of people and infrastructure with future environmental and socioeconomic changes either contributing to reduce or enhance these disaster risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extreme precipitation in major mountain regions is projected to increase, leading to consequences such as floods and landslides (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Comparatively, more severe risk consequences are expected under SSP3 and/or SSP4 given the high population projections in certain regions compared to SSP1 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Consequences that are considered severe refer to the magnitude (number of people and economic activities affected), timing (increase of water stress as early as mid-century in several regions) and likelihood (severe risk consequences are more likely where high population density is projected) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hotspot regions are those with large lowland populations depending on essential mountain water resource contributions and include river catchments such as the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Yangtze, Nile, Niger, Indus, Euphrates-Tigris or Pearl (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Limited governance and integrated management of water resources, power and gender inequalities and level of disruption of local community practices also contribute to making risks more severe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, the extent of adaptation in terms of time (i.e., speed), scale of change (i.e., scope) and depth of change (i.e., degree to which a change is substantial) is low in mountain regions, with the level of agreement across studies varying from one region to the other (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation responses in mountains are mainly incremental changes from existing practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The portfolio of adaptation options to mitigate risks from changing water resources (KR2) is large but challenging and includes integrated catchment management, implementation of multiple use of water strategies, improved water governance (including community-based and participatory water governance), overcoming power inequalities among users and sectors and balancing economic pressure and sustainable development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, repeated and recurrent disturbances that increase recovery times can reduce the effectiveness of EbA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation in mountain areas is currently constrained predominantly by soft limits related to existing social, economic and political conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Progress in overcoming soft limits is currently minimal due to insufficient engagement with socioeconomic and political issues in existing adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, varied and dynamic biophysical characteristics as well as high sociocultural diversity preclude one- size-fits-all responses; adaptation planning and action in mountains rooted in context-specific socioecological and climatic realities are more effective (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Autonomous responses can be appropriate when local resilience is high (Mishra et al., 2019; Ford et al., 2020); however, many mountain communities continue to face socioeconomic challenges that constrain their adaptive capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Such limits are already observed and are likely to become more widespread as climatic stressors move beyond historical experience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The potential for adaptation to contribute to sustainable development and transformative change in mountains is also becoming increasingly evident (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
To better achieve the adaptation potential in mountains, adaptation finance and private-sector inclusion and contribution are key enablers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Progress in addressing climate risks requires targeting the root causes of vulnerability, which are often socioeconomic in origin and can include poverty, marginalisation and inequitable gender dynamics (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that key conventions related to mountains, such as the Alpine Climate Board (SROCC section 2.4 (Hock et al., 2019)), provide opportunities for accelerating adaptation efforts through mainstreaming responses into other policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
More inclusive adaptation approaches, engagement with the root causes of vulnerability, improved coordination and monitoring activities and upscaling of support for adaptation are key enablers and are indicative of a substantial solution space for adaptation in mountain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP5.4.3 Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Development in Mountains With accelerating warming and compounding risks increasing above 1.5°C warming, the need for climate resilient development in mountains is evident and intricately linked to achieving the SDGs and equity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
NbS can be pursued in mountains that will mitigate climate change and its impacts while at the same time contributing to improving livelihoods, social and economic well-being and sustainable environmental management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge reinforce community adaptive capacity, yet governance structures and processes, including the deliberate design and implementation of climate policy, can constrain that capacity from being realised (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP6 2321Polar Regions Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Executive Summary Observed Impacts and Future Risks Climate change impacts and cascading impacts in polar regions, particularly the Arctic, are already occurring at a magnitude and pace unprecedented in recent history (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The polar regions, notably the Arctic and maritime Antarctic, are experiencing impacts from climate change at magnitudes and rates that are among the highest in the world, and will become profoundly different in the near-term future (by 2050) under all warming scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the Arctic, accelerated sea ice loss (particularly during summer), increased permafrost thaw and extreme high temperatures have substantially impacted marine, freshwater and terrestrial sociological–ecological systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Multiple physical, ecological and societal elements of polar regions are approaching a level of change potentially irreversible for hundreds of years, if not millennia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence of borealisation of terrestrial and marine systems is emerging (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of multi-year sea ice and the occurrence of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by the middle of this century will result in substantial range contraction, if not the disappearance of several Arctic fish, crab, bird and marine mammal species, including possible extinction of seals and polar bears in certain regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In the Arctic, permafrost thaw and snowfall decrease lead to profound hydrological changes, an overall greening of the tundra and regional browning of tundra and boreal forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has induced food web changes resulting in population declines in polar sea birds, including penguins, and marine and terrestrial mammals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally and regionally important harvested fish and invertebrate species are also contracting ranges and declining productivity, including Pacific cod, salmon, snow and king crab in the Arctic and krill in the Antarctic (medium confidence), with implications for global food systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.shipping, tourism (very high confidence) and Arctic maritime trade and resource extraction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Navigational risks have grown due to increasingly mobile multi-year ice, poor hydrographic charting in newly open areas, and limited weather, water, ice and climate data and services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)