rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Cascading trophic effects triggered by top predators or the largest herbivores propagate through food webs and reverberate through to the functioning of whole ecosystems, notably altering productivity, carbon and nutrient turnover and net carbon storage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Across different field experiments, the ecosystem consequences of the presence or absence of herbivores and carnivores have been found to be quantitatively as large as the effects of other environmental change drivers such as warming, enhanced CO 2, fire and variable nitrogen deposition (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
It is virtually certain that land cover changes affect regional and global climate through changes to albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
There is growing evidence that biosphere-related climate processes are being affected by climate change in combination with disturbance and LULCC (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It is virtually certain that land surface change caused by disturbances such as forest fires, hurricanes, phenological changes, insect outbreaks and deforestation affect carbon, water and energy exchanges, thereby influencing weather and climate (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Due to the positive impacts of CO 2 on vegetation growth and ecosystem carbon storage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For instance, the impacts of climate-induced altered animal composition and trophic cascades on ecosystem carbon turnover (see Sections 2.4.4.4, 2.5.3.4) could be a substantive contribu- tion to carbon–climate feedbacks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Climate-induced shifts towards forests in what is currently tundra would be expected to reduce regional albedo especially in spring, but also during parts of winter when trees are snow-free (whereas tundra vegetation would be covered in snow), which amplifies warming regionally (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While this has not yet been systematically explored, similar feedbacks might also emerge from a CO2-induced woody cover increase in savannas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Locally, both directly human-mediated and climate change-mediated changes in vegetation cover can therefore notably affect annual average freshwater availability to human societies, especially if negative feedbacks amplify the reduction of vegetation cover, evapotranspiration and precipitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As species become rare, their roles in the functioning of the ecosystem diminishes and disappears altogether if they become locally extinct (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of species and functional groups reduces the ability of an ecosystem to provide services, and lowers its resilience to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Continued climate change substantially increases the risk of carbon losses due to wildfires, tree mortality from drought and insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying, permafrost thaw and changes in the structure of ecosystems; these could exacerbate self-reinforcing feedbacks between emissions from high-carbon ecosystems and increasing global temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Thawing of Arctic permafrost alone could release 11–200 GtC (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The exact timing and magnitude of climate–biosphere feedbacks and the potential tipping points of carbon loss are characterised by broad ranges of the estimates, but studies indicate that increased ecosystem carbon losses could cause extreme future temperature increases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS | Infectious Diseases, Biodiversity and Climate: Serious Risks Posed by Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases Authors: Marie-Fanny Racault (UK/France, Chapter 3), Stavana E. Strutz (USA, Chapter 2), Camille Parmesan (France/UK/USA, Chapter 2), Rita Adrian (Germany, Chapter 2), Guéladio Cissé (Mauritania/Switzerland/France, Chapter 7), Sarah Cooley (USA, Chapter 3), Meghnath Dhimal (Nepal), Luis E. Escobar (Guatemala/USA), Adugna Gemeda (Ethiopia, Chapter 9), Nathalie Jeanne Marie Hilmi (Monaco/France, Chapter 18), Salvador E. Lluch-Cota (Mexico, Chapter 5), Erin Mordecai (USA), Gretta Pecl (Australia, Chapter 11), A. Townsend Peterson (USA), Joacim Rocklöv (Germany/Sweden), Marina Romanello (UK/Argentina/Italy), David Schoeman (Australia, Chapter 3), Jan C. Semenza (Italy, Chapter 7), Maria Cristina Tirado (USA/Spain, Chapter 7), Gautam Hirak Talukdar (India, Chapter 2), Yongyut Trisurat (Thailand, Chapter 2) Climate change is altering the life cycles of many pathogenic organisms and changing the risk of transmission of vector- and water-borne infectious diseases to humans (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There are substantial non-climatic drivers (LUC, wildlife exploitation, habitat degradation, public health and socioeconomic conditions) to the geographic and seasonal range suitability of pathogens and vectors that affect the attribution of the overall impacts on the prevalence or severity of some vector- and water-borne infectious diseases over recent decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation options that involve sustained and rapid surveillance systems as well as the preservation and restoration of natural habitats with their associated higher levels of biodiversity, both marine and terrestrial, will be key to reducing the risk of epidemics and the large-scale transmission of diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The area of coastline suitable for Cholera, Dengue or Malaria outbreak is increasing in North and West Africa, not changing in Central and East Africa, decreasing but potentially expanding in South Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
South America Endemicity EpidemicEndemic in all regions except southern South AmericaEndemic Climate driversAbundance of coastal V. cholerae: northwestern South America: SST, Plankton (low confidence)Temperature, precipitation, droughtNorthern South America: temperature (low confidence) northern and southeastern South America: Tmax, Tmin, humidity (low confidence) Direction of ChangeArea of coastline suitable for outbreak: no change (low confidence)Increasing due to urbanisation and decreased vector control programmes, not strongly linked to climateHigher elevation regions: Increase (low confidence) Europe Endemicity Not endemic Southern Europe: focal outbreaks Not endemic Climate driversNo evidence for disease incidence Abundance of coastal V. cholerae: northern Europe: SST, Plankton (medium confidence) Direction of ChangeArea of coastline suitable for outbreak: increase (low confidence)Mediterranean regions of southern Europe: outbreaks (low confidence)No change North America Endemicity Not endemicPartially endemic in southern North AmericaNot endemic Climate driversNo evidence for disease incidence Abundance of coastal V. cholerae: eastern North America: SST (low confidence due to limited evidence)Winter Tmin (low confidence) Direction of ChangeArea of coastline suitable for outbreak: increase (low confidence)Declining No change Small Islands Endemicity EpidemicEndemic on many small islands in the TropicsEndemic on many small islands in the Tropics Climate driversDisease incidence: Caribbean: SST, LST, rainfall (low to medium confidence)Caribbean: SPI, Tmin (low confidence) Direction of ChangeArea of coastline suitable for outbreak: Caribbean and Pacific small islands: Decrease (low confidence)Increasing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Warming, acidification, hypoxia, SLR and increases in extreme weather and climate events (e.g., MHWs, storm surges, flooding and drought), which are projected to intensify in the 21st century (high confidence) (IPCC, 2021b), are driving species’ geographic range shifts and global rearrangements in the location and extent of areas with suitable conditions for many harmful pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, algae, protozoa and helminths (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Our understanding of the impacts of climate-change drivers on the dynamics of Vibrio pathogens and related infections has been strengthened through improved observations from long-term monitoring programmes (Vezzulli et al., 2016) and statistical modelling supported by large-scale and high-resolution satellite observations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Already, studies have noted greater numbers of Vibrio-related human infections and, most notably, disease outbreaks linked to extreme weather events such as heat waves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe (Baker-Austin et al., 2013; Baker- Austin et al., 2017; Baker-Austin et al., 2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-driven increase in temperature, the frequency and intensity of extreme events as well as changes in precipitation and relative humidity have provided opportunities for rearrangements of disease geography and seasonality, and emergence into new areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In addition, the effective management and treatment of domestic and waste-water effluent, through better infrastructure and preservation of aquatic systems acting as natural water purifiers, have been key to securing the integrity of the surrounding water bodies, such as groundwater, reservoirs and lakes, and agricultural watersheds as well as protecting public health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The preservation and restoration of natural ecosystems, with their associated higher levels of biodiversity, have been reported as significant buffers against epidemics and large-scale pathogen transmission (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, the timely allocation of financial resources and sufficient political will in support of a ‘One Health’ scientific research approach, recognising the health of humans, animals and ecosystems as interconnected (Rubin et al., 2014; Whitmee et al., 2015; Zinsstag et al., 2018), holds potential for improving surveillance and prevention strategies that may help to reduce the risks of further spread and new emergence of pathogens and vectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A large body of evidence has demonstrated the extent to which human life, well-being and economies are dependent on healthy ecosystems and also the range of threats that these are faced with (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The health of ecosystems is, in turn, reliant upon the maintenance of natural levels of species’ richness and functional diversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Analyses suggest that 30% or even 50% of land and sea needs to be protected or restored to confer adequate protection for species and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is also increasing evidence, reported in this chapter, that the loss and degradation of natural and semi-natural habitats exacerbates the impacts of climate change and climatic extreme events on biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, there is a 38% overlap between areas of high carbon storage and high intact biodiversity (mainly in the peatland tropical forests of Asia, the western Amazon and the high Arctic), but only 12% of this is protected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL | Nature-Based Solutions for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Authors: Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK, Chapter 2), Gusti Anshari (Indonesia, Chapter 2, CCP7), Polly Buotte (USA, Chapter 4), Donovan Campbell (Jamaica, Chapter 15), Edwin Castellanos (Guatemala, Chapter 12), Annette Cowie (Australia, WGIII Chapter 12), Marta Rivera Ferre (Spain, Chapter 8), Patrick Gonzalez (USA, Chapter 2, CCP3), Elena López Gunn (Spain, Chapter 4), Rebecca Harris (Australia, Chapter 2, CCP3), Jeff Hicke (USA, Chapter 14), Rachel Bezner Kerr (USA/Canada, Chapter 5), Rodel Lasco (Philippines, Chapter 5), Robert Lempert (USA, Chapter 1), Brendan Mackey (Australia, Chapter 11), Paulina Martinetto (Argentina, Chapter 3), Robert Matthews (UK, WGIII, Chapter 3), Timon McPhearson (USA, Chapter 6), Mike Morecroft (UK, Chapter 2, CCP5), Aditi Mukherji (India, Chapter 4), Gert-Jan Nabuurs (the Netherlands, WGIII Chapter 7), Henry Neufeldt (Denmark/Germany, Chapter 5), Roque Pedace (Argentina, WGIII Chapter 3), Julio Postigo (USA/Peru, Chapter 12), Jeff Price (UK, Chapter 2, CCP1), Juan Pulhin (Philippines, Chapter 10), Joeri Rogelj (UK/Belgium, WGI Chapter 5), Daniela Schmidt (UK/Germany, Chapter 13), Dave Schoeman (Australia, Chapter 3), Pramod Kumar Singh (India, Chapter 18), Pete Smith (UK, WGIII Chapter 12), Nicola Stevens (South Africa, Chapter 2, CCP3), Stavana E. Strutz (USA, Chapter 2), Raman Sukumar (India, Chapter 1), Gautam Hirak Talukdar (India, Chapter 2, CCP1), Maria Cristina Tirado (USA/Spain, Chapter 7), Christopher Trisos (South Africa, Chapter 9) Nature-based solutions provide adaptation and mitigation benefits for climate change as well as contributing to other sustainable development goals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Poorly conceived and poorly designed nature-based mitigation efforts have the potential for multiple negative impacts, including competing for land and water with other sectors, reducing human well-being and failing to provide mitigation that is sustainable in the long term (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Agro-ecological practices mitigate and adapt to climate change and can promote native biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Supporting local livelihoods and providing benefits to indigenous local communities and millions of private landowners, together with their active engagement in decision-making, are critical to ensuring support for NbS and their successful delivery (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Forests Intact natural forest ecosystems are major stores of carbon and support large numbers of species that cannot survive in degraded habitats (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Deforestation and land degradation continue to be a source of global GHG emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Protection of existing natural forests and sustainable management of semi-natural forests that continue to provide goods and services are highly effective NbS (Bauhus et al., 2009) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Natural forests and sustainably managed biodiverse forests play important roles in climate change mitigation and adaptation while providing many other ecosystem goods and services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Reforestation of previously forested land can help to protect and recover biodiversity and is one of the most practical and cost-effective ways of sequestering and storing carbon (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It can also restore hydrological processes, thereby improving water supply and quality (Ellison et al., 2017) and reducing the risk of soil erosion and floods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation measures, such as increasing the diversity of forest stands through ecological restoration rather than monoculture plantations can help to reduce these risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
When plantations are established without effective landscape planning and meaningful engagement including free prior and informed consent, they can present risks to biodiversity and the rights, well-being and livelihoods of indigenous and local communities as well as being less climate-resilient than natural forests (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Afforesting areas such as savannas and temperate peatlands, which would not naturally be forested, damages biodiversity and increases vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Draining, cutting and burning peat lead to oxidation and the release of CO2 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Re-wetting by blocking drainage and preventing cutting and burning can reverse this process on temperate peatlands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Naturally treeless temperate and boreal peatlands have, in some cases, been drained to enable trees to be planted, which then leads to CO 2 emissions, and restoration requires the removal of trees as well as re-blocking drainage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Therefore, blue carbon strategies, referring to climate change mitigation and adaptation actions based on the conservation and restoration of blue carbon ecosystems, can be effective NbS, with evidence of the recovery of carbon stocks following restoration, although their global or regional carbon sequestration potential and net mitigation potential may be limited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
They can also significantly attenuate wave energy, raise the seafloor (thereby counteracting the effects of SLR) and buffer storm surges and erosion from flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Additionally, they provide a suite of cultural (e.g., tourism and the livelihoods and well-being of native and local communities), provision (e.g., mangrove wood, edible fish and shellfish) and regulation (e.g., nutrient cycling) services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Agro-forestry, cover crops and other practices that increase vegetation cover and enhance soil organic matter, carefully managed and varying by agro-ecosystem, mitigate climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The adoption of agro-ecology principles and practices will therefore be highly beneficial to maintaining healthy, productive food systems under climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
AF practices such as hedgerows and poly-cultures maintain habitat and connectivity for biodiversity, thus aiding the ability of wild species to respond to climate change via range shifts, and support ecosystem functioning under climate stress compared to conventional agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Biodiverse agro-forestry systems increase ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits compared to simple agro-forestry and conventional agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
AF significantly improves food security and nutrition by increasing access to healthy, diverse diets and raising incomes for food producers, due to the increased biodiversity of crops, animals and landscapes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yields of agro- forestry and organic farming can be lower than high-input agricultural systems but, conversely, AF can boost productivity and profit, varying according to the time frame and the socioeconomic, political or ecosystem context (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Conclusions NbS provide adaptation and mitigation benefits for climate change as well as contributing to achieving other sustainable development goals (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Conversely, well- designed and implemented mitigation efforts have the potential to provide co-benefits in terms of climate change adaptation as well as providing multiple goods and services, including the conservation of biodiversity, clean and abundant water resources, flood mitigation, sustainable livelihoods, food and fibre security and human health and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Meta-analyses of 162 studies involving 51,738 people documented that individuals with high levels of contact with nature throughout their lives felt significantly happier, healthier and more satisfied with their lives, and engaged in more pro-nature behaviours than those with little or no contact with nature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Meta-analyses of manipulative human trials across 65 studies documented a significant increase in positive feelings and attitudes and a decline in negative feelings after experimental treatments involving nature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Observations: vulnerabilities and impacts Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ocean and coastal ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia (high confidence2), and this has greatly impacted life in the ocean and along its coasts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Fundamental changes in the physical and chemical characteristics of the ocean acting individually and together are changing the timing of seasonal activities (very high confidence), distribution (very high confidence) and abundance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Geographic range shifts of marine species generally follow the pace and direction of climate warming (high confidence): surface warming since the 1950s has shifted marine taxa and communities poleward at an average (mean ± very likely3 range) of 59.2 ± 15.5 km per decade (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Seasonal events occur 4.3 ± 1.8 d to 7.5 ± 1.5 d earlier per decade among planktonic organisms (very high confidence) and on average 3 ± 2.1 d earlier per decade for fish (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Warming, acidification and deoxygenation are altering ecological communities by increasing the spread of physiologically suboptimal conditions for many marine fish and invertebrates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These and other responses have subsequently driven habitat loss (very high confidence), population declines (high confidence), increased risks of species extirpations and extinctions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Marine heatwaves lasting weeks to several months are exposing species and ecosystems to environmental conditions beyond their tolerance and acclimation limits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
WGI AR6 concluded that marine heatwaves are more frequent (high confidence), more intense and longer (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Open-ocean, coastal and shelf-sea ecosystems, including coral reefs, rocky shores, kelp forests, seagrasses, mangroves, the Arctic Ocean and semi-enclosed seas, have recently undergone mass mortalities from marine heatwaves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Marine heatwaves, including well-documented events along the west coast of North America (2013–2016) and east coast of Australia (2015–2016, 2016–2017 and 2020), drive abrupt shifts in community composition that may persist for years (very high confidence), with associated biodiversity loss (very high confidence), collapse of regional fisheries and aquaculture (high confidence) and reduced capacity of habitat-forming species to protect shorelines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Although impacts of multiple climate and non-climate drivers can be beneficial or neutral to marine life, most are detrimental (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming exacerbates coastal eutrophication and associated hypoxia, causing ‘dead zones’ (very high confidence), which drive severe impacts on coastal and shelf-sea ecosystems (very high confidence), including mass mortalities, habitat reduction and fisheries disruptions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Overfishing exacerbates effects of multiple climate-induced drivers on predators at the top of the marine food chain (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Urbanisation and associated changes in freshwater and sediment dynamics increase the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems like sandy beaches, salt marshes and mangrove forests to sea level rise and changes in wave energy (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Although these non-climate drivers confound attribution of impacts to climate change, adaptive, inclusive and evidence-based management reduces the cumulative pressure on ocean and coastal ecosystems, which will decrease their vulnerability to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Interacting climate- induced drivers and non-climate drivers are enhancing movement and bioaccumulation of toxins and contaminants into marine food webs (medium evidence, high agreement), and increasing salinity of coastal waters, aquifers and soils (very high confidence), which endangers human health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Combined climate- induced drivers and non-climate drivers decrease physical protection of people, property and culturally important sites from flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Marine species richness near the equator and in the Arctic is projected to continue declining, even with less than 2°C warming by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)