rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Cascading risks from polar shipping growth include increased air emissions, underwater noise pollution, disruption to subsistence hunting and cultural activities in the Arctic (high confidence) and potential for invasive marine species and geopolitical tensions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Arctic permafrost thaw is projected to impact most infrastructure by the middle of this century, impacting millions of people and their economies, and costing billions in damages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It has negatively impacted mental health and increased risks of injury, food insecurity and foodborne and waterborne disease, with risks amplified for those reliant on the environment for subsistence, livelihoods and identity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Permafrost thaw, sea level rise and reduced sea ice protection have already damaged or destroyed many cultural heritage sites in some Arctic regions (very high confidence) and are projected to continue across all Arctic regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Polar zones will continue to contract and diminish in extent under climate change, and local adaptations will be insufficient to achieve long-term resilience of polar systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The pace and extent of change in polar regions is challenging the ability of social and natural systems to adapt (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP6 2322Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar Regions biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Governance around climate change planning, preparation and response has been limited in scope, and has often not considered interacting effects of climate change with other risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reactive management strategies will not succeed in reducing risks in polar regions given the rapid change and increasing potential for extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Greater inclusivity of stakeholders and communities, along with using diverse sources of information, including Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, can benefit robust planning and decision making, and uptake of adaptations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effectiveness in preparing for and adapting to climate risks can benefit from improved climate, weather and ice forecasting services, tools for integrating climate change data and different types of knowledge into management processes and enhanced polar search, rescue and emergency response capabilities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Development of robust pathways for climate resilience in the Arctic can be accelerated by adaptation strategies and governance that reflect local conditions, cultures and adaptive capacities of communities and sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effectiveness of adaptation strategies will be enhanced by accounting for the geographic, climatic, ecological and cultural uniqueness of the polar regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Colonialism can inhibit the development of robust climate adaptation strategies, and exacerbate climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Inclusive decision making in establishing climate adaptations can foster resilience, reflect the unique environmental, cultural and economic imperatives of the region and support both market-based and sharing economies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Arctic Indigenous self-determination in decision making can establish robust climate resilience, especially in Indigenous communities, incorporating locally derived definitions of social and economic success, culturally legitimate institutions of government, strategic visioning and thinking and public-spirited, nation-building leadership (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
These changes are causing a suite of direct and cascading risks for all polar ecosystems with larger effects to date in the Arctic than the Antarctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Driver Region Observed changes Projected changes Marine and sea ice Sea level (relative) ArcticNo consistent trend (increase in northwest America, decrease in northeast America, stable in Greenland and Arctic Russia) (WG1-12)Rise in all polar regions (except areas of substantial land uplift in northeast Canada, the west coast of Greenland) (high confidence); Increase of extreme sea levels in Russian Arctic and northwest America (high confidence) Greenland/Iceland and northeast America (given glacial isostatic adjustment) (medium confidence, WG1-12) AntarcticRise in all polar regions (except areas of substantial land uplift in west Antarctica) (high confidence, WG1-12) Sea surface temperature ArcticIncrease of ~0.5°C per decade during 1982–2017 in ice-free regions in summer (high confidence, SROCC-3)Further increases (high confidence, WG1-12) AntarcticWarmed in northern areas of Southern Ocean but cooled in its southernmost regions since the 1980s (high confidence, SROCC-3)Circumpolar increases (high confidence, WG1-12) Sea ice cover ArcticLoss (particularly of multi-year sea ice) accelerated since 2001 (very likely, WG1-9)Will become sea ice free (< 1 × 106 km2) during summer before 2050, irrespective of global warming level (likely, WG1-9) AntarcticNo significant circumpolar trend from 1979–2018 (very high confidence), but decrease off the Antarctic Peninsula (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming and wetting have persisted as key climatic impact drivers in polar regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
CCP6.2 Observed Impacts and Future Risks CCP6.2.1 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems CCP6.2.1.1 Warming and sea ice retreat cause shifts in distribution ranges of species In Arctic seas, warming and other climate impact drivers, primarily sea ice retreat, have led to range contractions of Arctic marine and ice-associated species and poleward expansions of boreal species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Altered conditions allow more microorganisms to move poleward and provide opportunities for invasive species (Cavicchioli et al., 2019; Nielsen et al., 2020; Driver Region Observed changes Projected changes Permafrost ArcticRising permafrost temperatures over past three to four decades (high confidence, WG1-9); decreases in permafrost active layer thickness (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Submarine permafrost warming (medium confidence, WG1-9)Increases in temperature and active layer thickness (WG1-9); near-surface terrestrial permafrost extent will reduce under all scenarios by 2100 (virtually certain, WG1-9) AntarcticRising permafrost temperatures over past three to four decades (high confidence, WG1-9) Lake, river ice ArcticDeclines in seasonal lake ice cover thickness and duration over most Arctic lakes; declines in cold-season river ice extent (high confidence, WG1-12)Many lakes will lose >1 month lake ice cover by 2050 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Affected systemHazard *Cascading effectObserved impacts, future risks and natural adaptations identified in SROCC (confidence level) Arctic marine ecosystems Primary producers (PP-1)Sea ice loss * Freshening * StratificationImpact: timing (earlier and later blooms), distribution and magnitude (>30% increase in annual net primary production since 1998) (high confidence) Acidification Adaptation: phytoplankton may compensate for decrease in pH Zooplankton * PP-1 Impact: changing production and community composition (medium confidence) Benthos * PP-1 Impact: changing production and biodiversity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Numerous mammals and sea birds respond to changes in the distribution of their preferred habitats and prey by shifting their range, altering the timing or pathways for migration or switching prey (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Ice-breeding seals (e.g., harp seals – Pagophilus groenlandicus) often have little scope to shift distribution, leading to increases in strandings and pup mortality in years with little ice cover (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Recent studies confirm that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are negatively affected by changing ice and snow conditions with decreases in denning, foraging, reproduction, genetic diversity and survival rates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Such shifts have so far only been detected for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), with a poleward contraction of the highest densities of krill in the Atlantic sector (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ocean warming is expected to put pressure on Antarctic phytoplankton (Pinkerton et al., 2021) and fish species unable to move further south in shelf areas, including waters off sub-Antarctic islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Off the Antarctic Peninsula and sub-Antarctic islands, invasive benthic invertebrates and macroalgae have already been detected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
On a local to regional scale, the benthic recolonisation of the newly exposed seabed after the disintegration of ice shelves shows typical succession patterns, with mass occurrences of few pioneer species followed by gradual shifts to a more diverse typical shelf community, driven by increasing pelagic primary production upon ice-shelf collapse and strengthening of the pelagic–benthic coupling (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Range changes of Antarctic birds and marine mammals have been observed, which vary among sub- regions and are mostly attributable to changes in sea ice extent and food availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With projected sea ice retreat and associated change in prey distribution (Henley et al., 2020), foraging areas of sub-Antarctic sea birds and marine mammals will shift southwards, leading to elevated pressure on populations due to higher foraging costs during the breeding season (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These changes are particularly impacting emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) (Table CCP6.2), with the projected population declining close to extinction by 2100 under Business-As-Usual climate scenarios (medium confidence) (Jenouvrier et al., 2020; Trathan et al., 2020; Jenouvrier et al., 2021), whereas population decline is halted by 2060 under the 1.5°C climate scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
CCP6.2.1.2 Ocean warming and sea ice changes affect marine primary productivity In the central Arctic Ocean, primary productivity remains low (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In inflowing (Barents and Chukchi Sea) and interior shelf regions (Laptev, Kara, and Siberian Sea), changes in sea ice extent, thickness and seasonal timing have altered light and mixing regimes, causing increasing overall productivity in open-water and under-ice habitats, and in leads (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Productivity changes are associated with the earlier- onset phytoplankton spring blooms and the increasing occurrence of autumn blooms, particularly at lower latitudes of the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ice algal communities are expected to change in productivity and species composition in response to the transition from a predominantly multi-year to a seasonal sea ice pack (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP6 2329Polar Regions Cross-Chapter Paper 6 in Greenland (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Macroalgae and seagrass are generally expanding in the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In the future Arctic Ocean, higher light availability in response to further sea ice decline and reduced deep mixing is projected to generally increase primary productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, productivity may increase less than predicted and eventually even decrease once nutrient limitation outweighs the benefits of higher light availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Despite large-scale environmental changes in the Southern Ocean, such as the deepening of the summer mixed layer (medium confidence) (Panassa et al., 2018; Sallée et al., 2021), and the expected impacts via altered nutrient entrainment, light availability and grazer encounter rates (Chapter 3) (Behrenfeld and Boss, 2014; Llort et al., 2019), assessments indicated no consistent changes in primary production at the circumpolar scale, as sectors and regions show different trends (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Primary productivity has increased in the Pacific sector and decreased in the Atlantic sector and the Ross Sea (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Higher productivity has also been observed in regions where rapid environmental changes occurred, such as in the vicinity of retreating IS and declining sea ice cover off the Antarctic Peninsula (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Such an increase in Southern Ocean productivity will lead to a decline in global ocean productivity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP6.2.1.3 Impacts of ocean acidification vary spatially and among biotas In Arctic seas, areas with acidification levels corrosive to organisms forming CaCO 3 shells or skeletons expanded between the 1990s and 2010 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Key species of diatom and picoeukaryote phytoplankton species yet appear relatively resilient to decreasing pH levels over a range of temperature and light conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In contrast, there is evidence for species- and stage-specific sensitivities of zooplankton, pteropods and fishes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming, rising river-sediment discharge and coastal erosion in Arctic shelf regions are expected to increase the input of labile, often permafrost-derived organic carbon, the remineralisation of which further increases acidification rates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In the Southern Ocean, calcifying organisms are also most vulnerable to ocean acidification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Calcifying species with low- magnesium calcite or mechanisms to protect their skeletons are less vulnerable to the corrosive effects of acidification than those using aragonite or high-magnesium calcite (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In diatom-dominated communities, silicification diminishes with reduced pH levels, albeit with rates differing among taxa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Species-specific responses exist regarding growth and primary production, which are further strongly modulated by iron and light availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP6.2.1.4 Climate change alters food web dynamics Climate change has transformed Arctic marine ecosystems from sea ice- associated to open-water production regimes, with profound impacts on trophic energy transfer efficiencies and pathways (high confidence) (Behrenfeld et al., 2017; Meredith et al., 2019; Huntington et al., 2020) as well as benthic–pelagic coupling (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Shifts in bloom phenology favour small phytoplankton and smaller zooplankton over large lipid-rich macro-zooplankton, leading to longer, less efficient food chains (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Species range shifts have restructured higher trophic levels in Arctic food webs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate impacts on Arctic marine food webs will be profound and intensify with GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, the exact nature of these impacts remains unclear due to attenuating and amplifying dynamics of both top-down and bottom-up processes in polar food webs and the management of fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming is expected to reduce the quantity and quality of lipid-rich copepod prey (high confidence) (Aarflot et al., 2018; Kimmel et al., 2018; Bouchard and Fortier, 2020; Møller and Nielsen, 2020; Mueter et al., 2020), leading to declines in survival and growth of multiple upper-trophic level fish species; these impacts are amplified over time under low mitigation scenarios (RCP8.5) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Marine mammals and sea birds will continue to attenuate climate change impacts by shifting their diets and behaviour (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, sea birds generally have low temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing, making them vulnerable to mismatches with their prey and limiting long-term adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The optimum habitat for Antarctic krill is expected to decline with a shortening of suitable season for krill growth and reproduction, particularly in the northern Scotia and Bellingshausen Seas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Although salps have long been considered to be competitors of Antarctic krill (Suprenand and Ainsworth, 2017; Rogers et al., 2020), they provide a third energy pathway in pelagic food webs and, given the changing ocean conditions and their preference for smaller phytoplankton, may increase in importance for copepods (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
CCP6.2.2 Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems Since the publication of AR5 (IPCC, 2014) and SROCC (IPCC, 2019) and their findings (Table CCP6.2), more studies confirm rapid changes in Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems including increased permafrost thaw, changes to tundra hydrology and vegetation (overall greening of the tundra, regional browning of tundra and boreal forests), coastal and riverbank erosion (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Further evidence shows that warming and changes to the Arctic hydrologic cycle increase the risk of wildfire (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Both the frequency of and the area burned by wildfires during recent years are unprecedented compared with the last 10,000 years (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP6 2331Polar Regions Cross-Chapter Paper 6 most tundra and boreal regions, and interactions between climate and shifting vegetation (Song et al., 2018) will influence future fire intensity and frequency (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Even though the overall regional water cycle will intensify, including increased precipitation, evapotranspiration and river discharge to the Arctic Ocean (Table CCP6.1), snow and permafrost decline may lead to further soil drying (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Soil temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula are now sufficient for germination of non-native plants; invasions by non- endemic species are expected to increase with rising temperatures (high confidence) (Bokhorst et al., 2021), posing a risk to endemic polar species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Vegetation responses to warming are contingent on water availability and local temperature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
West Antarctica is showing evidence of greening in the dominant cryptogrammic vegetation, with greater growth in mosses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Peatland ecosystems may increase on the west Antarctic Peninsula with future warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
In contrast, some parts of East Antarctica and the subantarctic islands to the north have been experiencing a drying climate, with declining health of mosses and other vegetation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, this trend is not as great in southern colder locations (medium confidence) (e.g., Kim et al., 2018; Newsham et al., 2019), as the microbial community structure is affected by vegetation cover and water availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Antarctic terrestrial invertebrate communities on the West Antarctic Peninsula may be controlled more by vegetation and water availability than by air temperature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Evidence from laboratory studies, field programmes and sedimentary records indicate that Antarctic freshwater ecosystems may become more productive under climate warming scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Since SROCC, there is further evidence that climate change alterations of polar ecosystems increasingly challenge production of, and access to, sufficient, healthy and nutritious food, posing risks to future food and nutritional security within and beyond polar regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has impacted Indigenous subsistence resources across the Arctic (very high confidence) (SMCCP6.2), and future food systems and ecological connections are at risk from future climate change hazards interacting with non-climate pressures, some of which are mediated or amplified by novel conditions and opportunities in Arctic regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing heatwaves, wildfires, extreme precipitation, permafrost loss and rapid seasonal snow and ice thaw events will further threaten terrestrial subsistence food resources across the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Shifting spatial distributions of fish stocks have led to transboundary management challenges in the Atlantic, Bering Sea and Arctic areas previously inaccessible due to sea ice (Table CCP6.6) (Gullestad et al., 2020).Cascading and interacting effects of climate change impacts in polar regions (Table CCP6.1) will reduce access to, and productivity of, future fisheries, and pose significant risks to regional and global food and nutritional security that increase with atmospheric carbon levels and declines in sea ice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some global- scale models project increases in potential fishery yields in Arctic Canada (Cheung, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Tai et al., 2019), whereas many observational studies and high-resolution regional projections suggest overall declines in biomass, productivity and yield associated with warming and loss of sea ice in multiple regions such as the Bering Sea (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Reduced production of macronutrients and protein by polar marine sources will disproportionately impact people already experiencing food and nutritional scarcity (Myers et al., 2017), marine-dependent communities within and beyond polar regions, and women and children who require higher quantities of macronutrients (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP6 2334Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar Regions Large-scale commercial fisheries are expected to continue to operate in polar regions (high confidence) (Barange et al., 2018; Cavanagh et al., 2021; Grant et al., 2021), and will shift poleward (high confidence) toward geopolitical and management boundaries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased distances from ports to redistributed fishing grounds as well as increased frequency of storms and other extreme events are expected to increase risks and costs for fishery operations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There will be increased demand for new port infrastructure across the Arctic (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coupling adaptation measures with global carbon mitigation strategies substantially decreases climate change risks to polar fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
CCP6.2.4 Economic Activities Climate change presents significant risks to economic activities in the polar regions (very high confidence) and simultaneously enables development possibilities for fisheries (CCP6.2.3.3), agriculture (CCP6.2.3.2), the sharing and subsistence economy (CCP6.2.3.1) (SMCCP6.2) (high confidence), maritime trade (Box CCP6.1), natural resource development (CCP6.2.4.1) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP6.2.4.1 Changing access to natural resources with consequences for safety, economic development and climate mitigation Climate change is improving access to natural resources in the Arctic with consequences for human safety (high confidence), economic development (very high confidence) and global mitigation efforts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change has increased risks to, and demand for, polar tourism experiences with the development of a ‘last chance tourism market’ (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate hazards create risks to transportation sectors with consequences for economic development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Fog (low confidence) and an increase in precipitation falling as ice pellets or hail (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Polar settlements are at significant risk from climate change through shoreline erosion, permafrost thaw and flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Degradation of ice-rich permafrost can threaten the structural stability and functional capacities of community-based infrastructure (i.e., airports and roads; CCP6.2.5) and can have implications for local economies with coupled impacts for local livelihoods, health and well- being (CCP6.2.5, CCP6.2.6) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)