rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
CCP1 2151Biodiversity Hotspots Cross-Chapter Paper 1 Due to islands’ limited size and isolation, conventional conservation measures focused on expanding protected areas, dispersal corridors and buffer zones are of limited effectiveness on islands (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These lend to private–public partnerships, increasing the potential of solutions reaching beyond protected areas boundaries and affecting socio-political change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Much of the world’s population, economic activities and critical infrastructure are concentrated near the sea (high confidence), with nearly 11% of the global population, or 896 million people, already living on low-lying coasts directly exposed to interacting climatic and non-climatic coastal hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Low-lying cities and settlements (C&S) by the sea are experiencing adverse climate impacts that are superimposed on extensive and accelerating anthropogenic coastal change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Depending on coastal C&S characteristics, continuing existing patterns of coastal development will worsen exposure and vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and worsening climate-driven risks in a warming world, prospects for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and charting climate resilient development (CRD) pathways are dismal (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, coastal C&S are also the source of SDG and CRD solutions, because they are centres of innovation with long histories of place-based livelihoods, many of which are globally connected through maritime trade and exchange (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regardless of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, many C&S face severe disruption to coastal ecosystems and livelihoods by 2050—extending to all C&S by 2100 and beyond—caused by compound and cascading risks, including submergence of some low-lying island states (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
These risks are acute for C&S on subsiding and/or low-lying small islands, the Arctic, and open, estuarine and deltaic coasts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying C&S will be at risk from coast-specific climate hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location and adaptation action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Between USD 7 and 14 trillion of coastal infrastructure assets will be exposed by 2100, depending on warming levels and socioeconomic development trajectories (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The coastal flood risk will rapidly increase during coming decades, possibly by 2–3 orders of magnitude by 2100 in the absence of effective adaptation and mitigation, with severe impacts on coast-dependent livelihoods and socioecological systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Severely accelerated SLR resulting from rapid continental ice mass loss would bring impacts forward by decades, and adaptation would need to occur much faster and on a much greater scale than ever performed in the past (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
An adaptation-pathways approach sets out near-term ‘low-regret’ actions that align with societal goals, facilitates implementation of a locally appropriate sequence of interventions in the face of uncertain climate and development futures, and enables necessary transformation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A mix of infrastructural, nature-based, institutional and sociocultural interventions are needed to reduce the multifaceted risk facing C&S, including vulnerability-reducing measures, avoidance (i.e., disincentivising developments in high-risk areas), hard and soft protection, accommodation, advance (i.e., building up and out to sea) and retreat (i.e., landward movement of people and development) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Depending on the C&S archetype, technical limits for hard protection may be reached beyond 2100 under high-emission scenarios, with socioeconomic and governance barriers reached before then (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, hard protection can set up lock-in of assets and people to risks and, in some cases, may reach limits—due to technical and financial constraints—by 2100 or sooner depending on the scenario, local SLR effects and community tolerance thresholds (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Where sufficient space and adequate habitats are available, nature-based solutions can help to reduce coastal hazard risks and provide other benefits, but biophysical limits may be reached before end-century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As SLR is relentless on human timescales, the solution space will shrink without adoption of an adaptation-pathways planning approach (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP2 2166Cross-Chapter Paper 2 Cities and Settlements by the Sea if this is underpinned by sustained and ambitious mitigation to slow greenhouse gas emission rates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Individual and collective choices founded on public-centred values and norms, as well as pro-social behaviour, help to foster climate-resilient coastal development in C&S (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The effectiveness of different approaches (e.g., awareness and education, market-based and legal strategies) is mediated by how well they address contextual and psychosocial factors influencing adaptation choices in coastal C&S (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Locally appropriate institutional capabilities, including regulatory provisions and finances dedicated to maintaining healthy coastal socioecological systems, build adaptive capacity in C&S by the sea (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Implementing integrated multi-level coastal zone governance, pre- emptive planning, enabling behavioural change and alignment of financial resources with a wide set of values will provide C&S with greater flexibility to open up the solution space to adapt to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Insufficient financial resources are a key constraint for coastal adaptation, particularly in the Global South (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Engaging the private sector in coastal adaptation action with a range of financial tools is crucial to address the coastal adaptation funding gap (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Considering the full range of economic and non-economic values will improve adaptation effectiveness and equity across C&S archetypes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Realising global aspirations for CRD depends on the extent to which coastal C&S institutionalise key enabling conditions and chart place-based adaptation pathways to close the coastal adaptation gap, and on the extent to which they take urgent action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Extensive adaptation planning has been undertaken since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), but there has not been widespread effective implementation, thus giving rise to a ‘coastal adaptation gap’ (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To date, most interventions have been reactive and often rely on protective works alone (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The effectiveness of alternative interventions differs among C&S archetypes, while their feasibility is influenced by geomorphology and socioeconomic conditions as well as cultural, political and institutional considerations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Mismatches between adaptation needs and patterns of physical development are commonplace in many coastal C&S, with particularly adverse impacts on poor and marginalised communities in the Global North and Global South (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Overcoming this gap is key to transitioning towards CRD (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Under higher warming levels and higher SLR, increasingly dichotomous coastal futures will become more entrenched (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Progress towards these ends depends on the extent to which C&S mobilise urgent and transformational changes to institutionalise enabling conditions, close the coastal adaptation gap by addressing the drivers and root causes of exposure and vulnerability to climate-compounded coastal hazard risks, and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The ocean and climate impact drivers influencing these risks are assessed in WGI (Ranasinghe et al., 2021), which include extreme heat, pluvial floods from increasing rainfall intensity, coastal erosion and coastal flood driven by increasing SLR, and tropical cyclone storm surges (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Further, Arctic coastal settlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice retreat as well as from permafrost melt (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Across these studies, by 2100, 158–510 million people and USD 7,919–12,739 billion assets under RCP4.5, and 176–880 million people and USD 8,813– 14,178 billion assets under RCP8.5 will be within the 1-in-100-year floodplain (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
However, risks facing coastal C&S are high across the globe, especially under higher SLR projections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To date, interventions are typically implemented reactively in response to extreme events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Advance has occurred in all archetypes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Moreover, drawing from places as distinct as small communities in Fiji (Neef et al., 2018) and Belize (Karlsson and Hovelsrud, 2015), and megacities like New York City and Shanghai (Oppenheimer et al., 2019), BCR provides only a limited view and consideration of feasibility, effectiveness, efficiency, equity, culture, politics and power, and attachment to place has a greater chance of fostering CRD (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In sum, prospects for addressing climate risk in archetypal coastal C&S around the world depend on the extent to which societal choices— and associated governance processes and practices—address the drivers and root causes of exposure and social vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
This cross-chapter paper shows that a range of adaptation solutions, hard and soft protection, nature-based measures, accommodate, advance, retreat and behavioural change will need to be implemented as an integrated and sequenced portfolio of responses if coastal C&S are to contain the adverse risks of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coastal C&S are on the frontline of observed climate change impacts and future risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Given the risks assessed in coastal C&S, the scale of climate impacts globally will depend to a large extent on whether coastal settlements develop and implement pre- emptive and flexible adaptation pathways, and whether a significant and timely reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is achieved in C&S and globally (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These changes have had varying and location-specific impacts on biodiversity, and have altered ecosystem carbon balance, water availability and the provision of ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is no evidence, however, of a global trend in dryland expansion based on analyses of vegetation patterns, precipitation and soil moisture, with overall, more greening than drying in drylands since the 1980s (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The impacts of climate change have affected the ecosystem services that humans can harness from drylands, with largely negative implications for livelihoods, human health and well- being, particularly in deserts and semiarid areas with lower adaptive capacities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ecosystem degradation (Section 16.5.2.3.2) and desertification threaten the abilities of both natural and human systems to adapt to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These groups also often have lower capacities to adapt, particularly given structural limitations of some drylands where healthcare, sanitation, infrastructure and efficient markets are lacking, reinforcing existing inequalities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In rural drylands in tropical and Mediterranean areas, human populations are steadily expanding with mixed implications for ecosystem services under climate change, while rapid urbanisation in new and existing dryland megacities puts additional pressure on water ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks and adaptation under warming pathways Some drylands will expand by 2100, while others will shrink (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections are nevertheless uncertain and not well supported by observed trends, while different methodological approaches and indices exhibit different strengths and weaknesses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Nevertheless, the utility of the AI in delineating dryland biomes is limited under an increasing CO 2 environment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The characteristics and speed of human responses and adaptations also affect future risks and impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased temperature and rainfall variability will significantly change the interannual variability in the global carbon cycle, which is strongly influenced by the world’s drylands and the ways they are managed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increased variability of precipitation would generally contribute to increased vulnerability for people in drylands, intensifying the challenges that people living in deserts and semiarid areas will face for their sustainable development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Key enablers include supportive policies, institutions and governance approaches that strengthen the adaptive capacities of dryland farmers, pastoralists and other dryland resource users (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Land-based adaptations can help manage dryland changes, including sand and dust storms and desertification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, there is no evidence of a global trend in dryland expansion based on vegetation patterns, precipitation and soil moisture, based on the satellite record from the 1980s to the present (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These systems are highly sensitive to annual precipitation and temperature variations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Tree regeneration by farmers has also increased woody cover, particularly next to villages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP3.2.1.5 Tree Death and Woody Cover Decline Field measurements have also detected tree mortality and loss of mesic tree species at some Sahel sites during drought periods (Gonzalez et al., 2012; Kusserow, 2017; Brandt et al., 2018; Ibrahim et al., 2018; Trichon et al., 2018; Zwarts et al., 2018; Bernardino et al., 2020; Zida et al., 2020) and a reduction of mesic species in favour of drought-tolerant species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The spread of invasive Bromus tectorum may be enhanced by altered precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Arid grassland has expanded (between 10–100 km) into the eastern Karoo, South Africa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP3.2.1.7 Sand and Dust Storms Soil dust emissions are highly sensitive to changing climate conditions but also to changing land use and management practices (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP3.2.2 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Human Systems in Desert and Semiarid Areas Climate change and desertification, alongside other drivers of degra- dation, reduce dryland ecosystem services, leading to losses of bio- diversity, water, food and impacts on human health (Section CCP4.2.3) and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
SDS negatively impact human health through various pathways, causing respiratory, cardiovascular diseases and facilitating infections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
AI projections indicate potentially severe aridification in the Amazon, Australia, Chile, the Mediterranean region, northern, southern and western Africa, southwestern USA and South America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Supportive policies, institutions and good governance approaches can strengthen the adaptive capacities of dryland farmers, pastoralists and other resource users (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Building capacity by improving the knowledge base and access to information, as well as to financial and other resources, encourages vulnerable economic sectors and people to adopt more self-reliant measures that promote more integrated and sustainable use of natural resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Trends in precipitation are variable across the basin (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Droughts have become more frequent and intense, especially in the north Mediterranean (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level has risen by 1.4±0.2 mm yr-1 during the 20th century (2.8±0.1 mm yr-1 over 1993–2018) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean acidity is increasing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Air and sea temperature and their extremes (notably heat waves) are likely2 to continue to increase more than the global average (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The projected annual mean warming on land at the end of the century is in the range of 0.9–5.6°C compared to the last two decades of the 20th century, depending on the emission scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Precipitation will likely decrease in most areas by 4–22%, depending on the emission scenario (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Rainfall extremes will likely increase in the northern part of the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts will become more prevalent in many areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher values cannot be excluded (low confidence) and the process is irreversible at the scale of centuries to millennia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The number of people exposed to sea level rise is projected to increase up to 2050, especially in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region, and may reach up to 130% compared to present in 2100 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Coastal settlements, World Heritage sites and ecosystems are at longer-term risk from sustained sea level rise over at least the coming three centuries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The low-lying areas are the most vulnerable areas for coastal climate-related risks (e.g., sea level rise, floods, erosion) and other consequent risks (e.g., saltwater intrusion and agriculture damage) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change threatens water availability, reducing river low flows and annual runoff by 5–70%, reducing hydropower capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yields of rain- fed crops may decrease by 64% in some locations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean warming and acidification will impact marine ecosystems, with uncertain consequences on fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Desertification will affect additional areas, notably in the south and southeast (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Beyond 3°C, 13–30% of the Natura 2000 protected area and 15–23% of Natura 2000 sites could be lost due to climate-driven habitat change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP4 2236Cross-Chapter Paper 4 Mediterranean Region The adaptive capacity of ecosystems and human systems is expected to encounter hard limits due to the interacting, cumulative and cascading effects of droughts, heat waves, sea level rise, ocean warming and acidification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coastal protection can reduce risks from sea level rise in some regions, but the costs of such interventions and their consequences for coastal ecosystems are high (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
To equitably enhance regional adaptive capacity and sustainable development, while safeguarding the rights of the most vulnerable people, regional cooperation can be strengthened with a focus on the link between adaptation, costs and financial limitation, and climate justice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Cooperative policies across various sectors, involving all user groups and considering all regional and sectorial differences may enhance sustainable resource use in the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With the changing climate, marine ecosystems have already undergone changes in structure, including the spread of tropical species from the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Wetlands and mountain summits are hotspots for biodiversity loss and extinctions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Since the 1980s, Mediterranean atmospheric warming has exceeded global average rates (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Temperature extremes and heat waves have increased in intensity, number, and length during recent decades, particularly in summer, and are projected to continue increasing (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea surface temperatures have increased in recent decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP4 2238Cross-Chapter Paper 4 Mediterranean Region 21st century, ocean warming in the range 0.8°C–3.8°C is projected near the surface (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The duration and intensity of marine heat waves have increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Salinity is projected to increase, with anomalies from +0.48 to +0.89 psu by the end of the century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Observed trends in annual precipitation are significant only in some areas and some periods, and they are stationary over the long term throughout the region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Precipitation extremes have increased in some northern areas (medium confidence), and are projected to increase in the north (high confidence for global warming levels above 2°C), potentially accompanied by an increase in of flash floods (Llasat et al., 2016), with no change in the south (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Widespread increase of evaporative demand and some decrease of precipitation explain the drying of the Mediterranean region during recent decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Droughts are projected to become more severe, more frequent and longer under moderate emission scenarios, and strongly enhanced under severe emission scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mediterranean waters have acidified since the pre-industrial period, more rapidly than the global ocean, due to faster ventilation times (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP4 2240Cross-Chapter Paper 4 Mediterranean Region Mediterranean mean sea level has risen by 1.4±0.2 mm yr−1 during the 20th century (Wöppelmann and Marcos, 2012) and accelerated to 2.4±0.5 mm yr−1 for 1993 to 2012 (Bonaduce et al., 2016) and 3.4 mm yr−1 for 1990 to 2009 in the northwest (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For 2150, sea level is likely to reach 0.52 m [0.32–0.81] for SSP1- 1.9, to 1.22 [0.91–1.78] for SSP5-8.5 relative to 1996–2014 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
CCP4.1.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts New evidence published since Working Group II Assessment Report 5 (WGII AR5) confirms that climate change is increasingly affecting many systems and sectors in the Mediterranean region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite increasing wildfire hazard, forest fires are generally decreasing in the European part of the basin, due to more efficient risk management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While land use and fisheries are still major non-climatic drivers of changing hazards and biodiversity losses (Aguilera et al., 2015; Turco et al., 2016; IPBES, 2018a; 2018b; Tramblay et al., 2019; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019), impacts of climate change are now being observed in all parts of the Mediterranean region (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warm-water fish species are expected to move northwards, while cold-water species will decline, and invasions of thermal-tolerant tropical species will increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
CCP4.3.2 Coastal Systems Sea level rise is the origin of multiple risks for low-lying areas in the Mediterranean Basin; for example, the further increase in flooding at high tide in some locations, such as Venice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Overall, sea level rise is projected to increase the risk of coastal flooding despite the potential slight reductions of marine storms (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)