rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Finance de- ployed at the interface of multiple, integrated adaptation measures can support climate resilient development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Multi-level leadership and institutional capacity, together with financial resources (including climate finance) to support inclusive and sustainable adaptation in the context of multiple pressures and interconnected risks, can help to ensure that global urbanisation of an additional 2.5 billion people by 2050 reduces rather than generates climate risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The great- est gains in well-being in urban areas can be achieved by prioritising investment to reduce climate risk for low-income and marginalised residents and targeting informal settlements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Providing opportunities for marginalised people, including women, to take on leadership and par - ticipation in local projects can enhance climate governance and its outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
More comprehensive and clearly articulated global ambitions for city and community adaptation will contribute to inclusive urbanisation, by addressing the root causes of social and economic inequalities that drive social exclusion and marginalisation, so that adaptation can directly support the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2050, over two thirds of the world’s population is expected to be urban, many living in unplanned and informal settlements and in smaller urban centres in Africa and Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The IPCC 1.5°C Special Report commented that ‘The extent of risk depends on human vulnerability and the effectiveness of adaptation for regions (coastal and non-coastal), informal settlements, and infrastructure sectors (energy, water, and transport) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence since AR5 confirms that occupants of informal settlements are particularly exposed to climate events given low-quality housing, limited capacity to adapt, and limited or no risk-reducing infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Box 6.1 | Planetary Urbanisation and Climate Risk The scale, reach and complexity of contemporary urbanisation compounds climate risks and conditions adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The fragmentation of the hinterland for extractivist purposes depletes ecosystem services and further exacerbates cascading risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Cities can be effective change agents when supported by networked local and national institutions, including professional bodies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The conclusions of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C noted that ‘Global warming of 2°C is expected to pose greater risks to urban areas than global warming of 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Additionally, carbon-intensive economic growth, increasing inequalities, global pandemics, and uncontrolled or unmanaged urbanisation will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of urban systems modelled in existing climate scenarios and pathways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change can have direct impacts on the functioning of urban systems, while the nature of those systems plays a substantial role in modifying the effects of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future urbanisation will amplify projected local air temperature increase, particularly by strong influence on minimum temperatures, which is approximately comparable in magnitude to global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The risks to cities, settlements and infrastructure from heatwaves will worsen (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heat risk is associated with a range of health issues for urban residents, with the consequences of higher urban temperatures being unevenly distributed across urban populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is an emerging risk of diminished indoor thermal comfort due to climate change, evidenced by research into negatively affected thermal comfort indices and/or increased number of overheating hours under future emissions scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Higher urban temperatures result in lower labour productivity levels and economic outputs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Higher urban temperatures place unequal economic stresses on residents and households through higher utilities demand during warm periods, for example, electricity in regions where air conditioning is predicted to become more prevalent, and due to medical costs associated with care for heat illnesses and related health effects, missed work and other related impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Social surveys from temperate and tropical cities highlight the risk of reduced quality of life during heat events, including increased incidence of personal discomfort in indoor and outdoor settings, elevated anxiety, depression and other indicators of adverse psychological health, and reductions in physical activity, social interactions, work attendance, tourism and recreation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sea level increase and increases in tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Globally, the increase in frequencies and intensities of extreme precipitation from global warming will likely4 expand the global land area affected by flood hazards (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Urban flooding risks are also increased by urban expansion and land use and land cover change which enlarges impermeable surface areas through soil sealing, impacting drainage of floodwaters with consequent sewer overflows (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Future risks of urban flooding is increasing in conjunction with continued increases in global surface temperature (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks arising from urban water scarcity worldwide are very likely increasing due to climate drivers (e.g., warmer temperatures and droughts) and urbanisation processes (e.g., land use changes, migration to cities and changing patterns of water use including over extraction of surface and groundwater resources) affecting supply and demand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Decreased regional precipitation and associated changes in runoff and storage from droughts is exacerbating urban scarcity by impairing the quality of water available for its resource management in cities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks of urban water scarcity and security are compounded by vulnerabilities such as service availability and quality of infrastructure to supply water for increased urban demand from in-migration to cities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Risks to local water security in cities are also exacerbated by drivers such as dependence on imported water resources from distant locales that may be exposed to additional drought risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In particular, there is evidence from North American cities that tornado damage are likely fundamentally driven by growing built-environment exposure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Future climate risk of fires at the WUI are likely (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The mortality risk for several pollutants, for example PM 2.5, is considerable (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The impacts of future climate change on air quality and consequent risks on human health have been studied at urban (Knowlton et al., 2004; Physick, Cope and Lee, 2014) and national scales (Fann et al., 2015; Orru et al., 2013; Doherty, Heal and O’Connor, 2017); globally, these studies have found a likely net increased risk of climate change on air pollution-related health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
While some individuals, including children, may be able to exercise agency to reduce their risk (Treichel, 2020), and some indicators are culturally specific, overall, poor, marginalised, socially isolated and informal urban households are particularly at risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-induced migration is not necessarily higher among poorer households whose mobility is more likely to be limited due to the poverty trap (i.e., lack of financial resources) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Migration can also be maladaptive for the receiving contexts, whether due to the pressure on and/or conflict over land and/or the urban resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Regardless of the reasons and the initiators for migration, community control over resettlement both at the origin and destination leads to more positive outcomes for both the communities being resettled and the receiving communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The protection of livelihoods contributes to ensuring the well-being (physical and mental) and the protection of the rights of communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Current climate variability is already causing impacts on infrastructure systems around the world (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected global compound risks will increase in the future, with significant risks across energy, food and water sectors that likely overlap spatially and temporally while affecting increasing numbers of people and regions particularly in Africa and Asia (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extending into urban areas within stable states, alienation and loss of trust between local populations and the state can be exacerbated by top-down adaptation planning and delivery; socially and spatially uneven adaptation investment; and in the economic and administrative limits of government that can lead to some places being excluded from formal planned investment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence from both richer countries and the Global South reveals that conventional zoning is more effective when governance systems facilitate the implementation of land use policies for climate adaptation that preclude negative human-nature interactions and that curb spatial inequity, both of which can trigger climate gentrification and increase the vulnerability of economically disadvantaged groups to climate-related risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation actions through zoning and land use are more effective when combined with other planning measures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Local government reform at different levels can improve local adaptation, whether this is by strengthening specific teams or building cross-departmental linkages (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Multi-level governance measures that support local governments can foster robust adaptation approaches and address risks and vulnerabilities across scales (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective action by local government requires national government’s support (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
National urban adaptation directives can influence municipal governments’ action and planning, but evidence suggests that national policy alone is not sufficient to deliver action on the ground without understanding local conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation actions, even where financed effectively, do not always deliver positive outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Individual coping strategies are generally ineffective in reducing extreme risks and they rarely address the underlying structural causes of vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, individual coping strategies can provide foundations for the implementation of collaborative action in communities, building on people’s experiences, in ways which may have a longer-term, durable impact on developing resilience (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Corporate, private sector interventions in urban risk reduction more broadly remain limited, with a mix of public and private responsibility for planning, implementing and maintaining adaptations in the built environment, and yet limited engagement of private sector actors in providing healthcare measures for heat prevention (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Local authorities are an important enabling actor that can guide the private sector and communities to take responsibility for creating policy and regulatory environments that encourage private sector participation aligned with the SDGs’ equity and ecological sustainability principles (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The integration of climate adaptation in local policies in cities and settlements has often been seen as maintaining business-as-usual and not always aligned with transformative efforts to address structural drivers of vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Access to private finance can support infrastructure development through private provisioning, public–private partnerships (PPP) and public debt arrangements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urbanisation: A Megatrend Driving Global Climate Risk and Potential for Low-Carbon and Resilient Futures Severe weather events, exacerbated by anthropogenic emissions, are already having devastating impacts on people who live in urban areas, and on the infrastructure that supports these communities and those of many other distant places (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Urban settlements are drivers of climate change, generating about 70% of global CO 2-eq emissions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As urbanisation unfolds, its legacy continues to be the locking in of emissions and vulnerabilities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Enabling Action Innovative governance and finance solutions are required to manage complex and interconnected risks across essential key infrastructures, networks and services and meet basic human needs in urban areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increasing investment at pace will put pressure on governance capability and transparency and accountability of decision making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate hazards are a growing driver of involuntary migration and displacement (high confidence) and are a contributing factor to violent conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These impacts are often inter-connected, are unevenly distributed across and within societies, and will continue to be experienced inequitably due to differences in exposure and vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Cascading and compounding risks affecting health due to extreme weather events have been observed in all inhabited regions, and risks are expected to increase with further warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Since AR5, new evidence and awareness of current impacts and projected risks of climate change on health, well-being, migration and conflict have emerged, including greater evidence of the detrimental impacts of climate change on mental health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
New international agreements were reached on climate change (Paris Agreement), disaster risk reduction (DRR) (Sendai Agreement), sustainable development (the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)), urbanisation (The New Urban Agenda), migration (Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration) and refugees (Global Compact on Refugees) that, if achieved, would reduce the impacts of climate change on health, well-being, migration and conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
However, the challenges with implementing these agreements are highlighted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which exposed systemic weaknesses at community, national and international levels in the ability of societies to anticipate and respond to global risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Incremental changes in policies and strategies have proven insufficient to reduce climate-related risks to health, well-being, migration and conflict, highlighting the value of more integrated approaches and frameworks for solutions across systems and sectors that are embodied in these new international agreements (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With proactive, timely and effective adaptation, many risks for human health and well-being could be reduced and some potentially avoided (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
National planning on health and climate change is advancing, but the comprehensiveness of strategies and plans need to be strengthened, and implementing action on key health and climate change priorities remains challenging (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.adaptation is only 0.5% of dispersed multi-lateral climate finance projects (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This level of investment is insufficient to protect population health and health systems from most climate- sensitive health risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate resilient development has a strong potential to generate substantial co-benefits for health and well-being and to reduce risks of involuntary displacement and conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Sustainable and climate resilient development that decreases exposure, vulnerability and societal inequity and that increases timely and effective adaptation and mitigation more broadly, has the potential to reduce but not necessarily eliminate climate change impacts on health, well-being, involuntary migration and conflict (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This development includes greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions through clean energy and transport; climate-resilient urban planning; sustainable food systems that lead to healthier diets; universal access to healthcare and social protection systems; wide-scale, proactive adaptive capacity building for climate change; and achievement of the SDGs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The net global financial gains from these co-benefits to health and well- being, including avoided hospitalisations, morbidity and premature deaths, exceed the financial costs of mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As an example of co-benefits, the financial value of health benefits from improved air quality alone is projected to be greater than the costs of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
All pathways to climate resilient development, including those for the health and healthcare systems, involve balancing complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways and the options that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation pathways (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Key transformations are needed to facilitate climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) for health, well- being, migration and conflict avoidance (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The transformational changes will be more effective if they are responsive to regional, local and Indigenous knowledge and consider the many dimensions of vulnerability, including those that are gender- and age-specific (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A key pathway towards climate resilience in the health sector is universal access to primary healthcare, including mental healthcare (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Investments in other sectors and systems that improve upon the social determinants of health have the potential to reduce vulnerability to climate-related health risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Links between climate risks, adaptation, migration and labour markets highlight the value of providing better mobility options as part of transformative change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Observed Impacts Climate hazards are increasingly contributing to a growing number of adverse health outcomes (including communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs)) in multiple geographical areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The net impacts are largely negative at all scales (very high confidence), and there are very few examples of beneficial outcomes from climate change at any scale (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While malaria incidence has declined globally due to non- climatic socioeconomic factors and health system responses, a shift to higher altitudes has been observed as the climate warms (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate variability and change (including temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and population mobility are significantly and positively associated with observed increases in dengue globally; chikungunya virus in Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe (high confidence); Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in North America (high confidence); and Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis vector Ixodes ricinus in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Higher temperatures (very high confidence), heavy rainfall events (high confidence) and flooding (medium confidence) are associated with an increase of diarrhoeal diseases in affected regions, including cholera (very high confidence), other gastrointestinal infections (high confidence) and food-borne diseases due to Salmonella and Campylobacter (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Floods have led to increases in vector- and waterborne diseases and to disturbances of public health services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate extremes increase the risks of several types of respiratory tract infections (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-related extreme events such as wildfires, storms and floods are followed by increased rates of mental illness in exposed populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Several chronic, non-communicable respiratory diseases are climate-sensitive based on their exposure pathways (e.g., heat, cold, dust, small particulates, ozone, fire smoke and allergens) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Worldwide, rates of adverse health impacts associated with small particulate matter (PM) exposure have decreased steadily due to decreasing primary emissions (very high confidence), while rates of adverse health impacts from ozone air pollution exposure have increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Exposure to wildland fires and associated smoke has increased in several regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Heat is a growing health risk due to burgeoning urbanisation, an increase in high temperature extremes and demographic changes in countries with aging populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Potential hours of work lost due to heat has increased significantly over the past two decades (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A significant proportion of warm-season heat-related mortality in temperate regions is linked to observed anthropogenic climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For some heatwave events over the last two decades, associated health impacts can be at least partially attributed to observed climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme heat has negative impacts on mental health, well-being, life satisfaction, happiness, cognitive performance and aggression (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate variability and change contribute to food insecurity, which can lead to malnutrition, including undernutrition, overweight and obesity, and to disease susceptibility in low- and middle-income countries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Populations exposed to extreme weather and climate events may consume inadequate or insufficient food, leading to malnutrition and increasing the risk of disease (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Children and pregnant women experience disproportionately greater adverse nutrition and health impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climatic influences on nutrition are strongly mediated by socioeconomic factors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Extreme climate events act as both direct drivers (e.g., destruction of homes by tropical cyclones) and as indirect drivers (e.g., rural income losses during prolonged droughts) of involuntary migration and displacement (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Most documented examples of climate-related displacement occur within national boundaries, with international movements occurring primarily within regions, particularly between countries with contiguous borders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Global statistics collected since 2008 by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) show an annual average of over 20 million people internally displaced by weather-related extreme events, with storms and floods the most common drivers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)