rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Energy storage will be increasingly important in net-zero energy systems, especially in systems with shares of VRE (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
It is technically feasible to use very high renewable shares (e.g., above 75% of annual regional generation) to meet hourly electricity demand under a range of conditions, especially when VRE options, notably wind and solar, are complemented by other resources (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Several end uses, such as passenger transportation (light-duty electric vehicles, two and three wheelers, buses, rail) as well as building energy uses (lighting, cooling) are likely to be electrified in net- zero energy systems (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Regions endowed with cheap and plentiful low-carbon electricity resources (wind, solar, hydropower) are likely to emphasise electrification, while those with substantial bioenergy resources or availability of other liquid fuels might put less emphasis on electrification, particularly in hard-to-electrify end uses (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Electrification of most buildings services, with the possible exception of space heating in extreme climates, is expected in net-zero energy systems (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Energy systems that are 100% renewable (including all parts of the energy sector, and not only electricity generation) raise a range of technological, regulatory, market, and operational challenges that make their competitiveness uncertain (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
A significant share of transportation, especially road transportation, is expected to be electrified in net-zero energy systems (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In road transportation, two- and three-wheelers, light-duty vehicles (LDVs), and buses, are especially amenable to electrification, with more than half of passenger LDVs expected to be electrified globally in net-zero energy systems (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
A non-trivial number of industry applications could be electrified as a part of a net-zero energy system, but direct electrification of heavy industry applications such as cement, primary steel manufacturing, and chemical feedstocks is expected to be challenging (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Costs are the main barrier to synthesis of net-zero emissions fuels (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Net-zero energy systems will use energy more efficiently than those of today (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Characterising efficiency of net-zero energy systems is problematic due to measurement challenges (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Measurement issues notwithstanding, virtually all studies that address net-zero energy systems assume improved energy intensity in the future (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Net-zero energy systems will be characterised by greater efficiency and more efficient use of energy across all sectors (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Carbon-neutral energy systems are likely to be more interconnected than those of today (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system GHG emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
To decarbonise most cost- effectively, global net CO 2 emissions from electricity generation will likely reach zero before the rest of the energy sector (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires a rapid and dramatic increase in energy produced from low- or zero-carbon sources (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Low- and zero-carbon sources produce 97–99% of global electricity in 2050 in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot and 93–97% in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) (Figure 6.29) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Strong path dependencies, even in early formative stages, can have lasting impacts on energy systems, producing inertia that cuts across technological, economic, institutional and political dimensions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
These current investments combined with emissions from proposed fossil infrastructure exceed the emissions required to limit warming to 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Existing policies and the NDCs are insufficient to prevent an increase in fossil infrastructure and associated carbon lock-in (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Past and present energy sector investments have created technological, institutional, and behavioural path dependencies aligned towards coal, oil, and natural gas (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Box 6.13 | Stranded Assets Limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower will result in stranded assets (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
About 200 GW of fossil fuel electricity generation per year will likely need to be retired prematurely after 2030 to limit warming to 2°C, even if countries achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
If warming is limited to 2°C, the discounted economic impacts of stranded assets, including unburned fossil reserves, could be as high as USD1–4 trillion from 2015 through 2050 (USD10–20 trillion in undiscounted terms) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Global coal consumption without CCS needs to be largely eliminated by 2040–2050 to limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%), and 2050–2060 to limit warming to 2°C (>67%) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
New investments in coal-fired electricity without CCS are inconsistent with limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Natural gas may remain part of energy systems through mid-century, both for electricity generation and use in industry and buildings, and particularly in developed economies, even if warming is limited to 2°C (>67%) or lower (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
While policy interventions are necessary to achieve low-carbon energy system transitions, appropriate governance frameworks are crucial to ensure policy implementation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Well-designed policy mixes can support the pursuit of multiple policy goals, target effectively different types of imperfections and framework conditions and take into account the technological, economical, and societal situation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
However, comprehensive evaluation of policy mixes requires a broader set of criteria that reflect different considerations, such as broader goals (e.g., SDGs) and the feasibility of policies (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Potential future policies are difficult to evaluate due to methodological challenges (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Cost reductions in key technologies, particularly in electricity and light-duty transport, have increased the economic attractiveness of near-term low-carbon energy system transitions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The near-term, economic outcomes of low-carbon energy system transitions in some sectors and regions may be on par with or superior to those of an emissions-intensive future (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The long-term economic characteristics of low-emissions energy system transitions are not well understood, and they depend on policy design and implementation along with future costs and availability of technologies in key sectors (e.g., process heat, long- distance transport), and the ease of electrification in end-use sectors (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Advances in low-carbon energy resources and carriers such as next-generation biofuels, hydrogen produced from electrolysis, synthetic fuels, and carbon-neutral ammonia would substantially improve the economics of net-zero energy systems (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Improving efficiency and energy conservation will promote sustainable consumption and production of energy and associated materials (SDG 12) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Phasing out fossil fuels in favour of low-carbon sources is likely to have considerable SDG benefits, particularly if trade-offs such as unemployment to fossil fuel workers are minimised (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
CDR and CCS can create significant land and water trade-offs (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Greater energy system integration (Sections 6.4.3 and 6.6.2) would enhance energy-SDG synergies while eliminating trade-offs associated with deploying mitigation options (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The rapid deployment of AFOLU measures is essential in all pathways staying within the limits of the remaining budget for a 1.5°C target (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change itself (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
If the managed and natural responses of all land to both anthropogenic environmental change and natural climate variability, estimated to be a gross sink of –12.5 ± 3.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 for the period 2010–2019, are included with land use emissions, then land overall, constituted a net sink of –6.6 ± 5.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 in terms of CO 2 emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
The rate of deforestation has generally declined, while global tree cover and global forest growing stock levels are likely increasing (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
AFOLU CH 4 emissions continue to increase (high confidence), the main source of which is enteric fermentation from ruminant animals (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Assisting countries to overcome barriers will help to achieve significant short-term mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Climate change could also emerge as a barrier to AFOLU mitigation, although the IPCC AR6 WGI contribution to AR6 indicated that an increase in the capacity of natural sinks may occur, despite changes in climate (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
The continued loss of biodiversity makes ecosystems less resilient to climate change extremes and this may further jeopardise the achievement of the AFOLU mitigation potentials indicated in this chapter (IPCC AR6 WGII and IPBES) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Poorly planned deployment of biomass production and afforestation options for in-forest carbon sequestration may conflict with environmental and social dimensions of sustainability (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The global technical CDR potential of BECCS by 2050 (considering only the technical capture of CO 2 and storage underground) is estimated at 5.9 mean (0.5–11.3) GtCO 2 yr–1, of which 1.6 (0.8–3.5) GtCO 2 yr–1 is available at below USD100 tCO 2–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Bioenergy and other bio-based products provide additional mitigation through the substitution of fossil fuels fossil-based products (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Such risks can best be managed if AFOLU mitigation is pursued in response to the needs and perspectives of multiple stakeholders to achieve outcomes that maximise synergies while limiting trade-offs (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Globally, the AFOLU sector has so far contributed modestly to net mitigation, as past policies have delivered about 0.65 GtCO 2 yr–1 of mitigation during 2010–2019 or 1.4% of global gross emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The majority (>80%) of emission reduction resulted from forestry measures (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
To date USD0.7 billion yr–1 is estimated to have been spent on AFOLU mitigation, which is well short of the more than USD400 billion yr–1 that is estimated to be necessary to deliver the up to 30% of global mitigation effort envisaged in deep mitigation scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
In addition to funding, these factors include governance, institutions, long-term consistent execution of measures, and the specific policy setting (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
It would also assist in assessing collective progress in a global stocktake (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
To enable a like-with- like comparison, the remaining cumulative global CO 2 emissions budget can be adjusted (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
These options could support more specific NDCs with 2 Bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models.AFOLU measures that enable mitigation while also contributing to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem functioning, livelihoods for millions of farmers and foresters, and many other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the share of AFOLU to anthropogenic GHG emissions had remained largely unchanged at 13–21% of total GHG emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
While there is low agreement in the trend of global AFOLU CO 2 emissions over the past few decades (Section 7.2.2), they have remained relatively constant (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
This showed a removal of –12.5 ± 3.2 GtCO 2 yr–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Following changes in land conditions, CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O fluxes are quickly mixed into the atmosphere and dispersed, resulting in the biogeochemical effects being dominated by the biophysical effects at local scales (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
If implemented at appropriate scales and in a sustainable manner, land-based mitigation practices have the capacity to reduce emissions and sequester billions of tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere over coming decades, while also preserving or enhancing biodiversity, water quality and supply, air quality, soil fertility, food and wood security, livelihoods, resilience to droughts, floods and other natural disasters, and positively contributing to ecosystem health and human well-being (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The SRCCL assessed the full range of technical, economic and sustainability mitigation potentials in AFOLU for the period 2030–2050 and identified reduced deforestation and forest degradation to have greatest potential for reducing supply-side emissions (0.4 to 5.8 GtCO 2-eq yr–1) (high confidence) followed by combined agriculture measures, 0.3 to 3.4 GtCO 2-eq yr–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
For the demand-side estimates, shifting towards healthy, sustainable diets (0.7 to 8.0 GtCO 2-eq yr–1) (high confidence) had the highest potential, followed by reduced food loss and waste (0.8 to 4.5 GtCO 2-eq yr–1) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Measures with greatest potential for CDR were afforestation/reforestation (0.5 to 10.1 GtCO 2-eq yr–1) (medium confidence), soil carbon sequestration in croplands and grasslands (0.4 to 8.6 GtCO 2-eq yr–1) (medium confidence) and BECCS (0.4 to 11.3 GtCO 2-eq yr–1) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
The feasibility of implementing AFOLU mitigation measures, including those with multiple co-benefits, depends on varying economic, technological, institutional, socio- cultural, environmental and geophysical barriers (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Reducing deforestation and forest degradation represents one of the most effective options for climate change mitigation, with technical potential estimated at 0.4–5.8 GtCO 2 yr–1 by 2050 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Based on studies since AR5, the technical mitigation potential for reducing deforestation and degradation is significant, providing 4.5 (2.3–7) GtCO 2 yr–1 globally by 2050, of which 3.4 (2.3–6.4) GtCO 2 yr–1 is available at below USD100 tCO 2–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
The SRCCL remained with a reported wide range of mitigation potential for A/R of 0.5–10.1 GtCO 2 yr–1 by 2050 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
In the SRCCL, forest management activities have the potential to mitigate 0.4–2.1 GtCO 2-eq yr–1 by 2050 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
In the SRCCL, fire management is among the nine options that can deliver medium-to-large benefits across multiple land challenges (climate change mitigation, adaptation, desertification, land degradation, and food security) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In the SRCCL (Chapters 2 and 6), it was estimated that avoided peat impacts could deliver 0.45–1.22 GtCO 2-eq yr–1 technical potential by 2030–2050 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
According the SRCCL, peatland restoration could deliver technical mitigation potentials of 0.15 – 0.81GtCO 2-eq yr–1 by 2030–2050 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: low)
Peatlands are highly sensitive to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Like AE, it is likely that RA can contribute to mitigation, the extent to which is currently unclear and by its case-specific design, will vary (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
There is evidence that CA can contribute to mitigation, but its contribution is depended on multiple factors including climate and residue returns (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The SRCCL reported a technical CDR potential for BECCS at 0.4–11.3 GtCO 2 yr–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Based on studies to date, the technical net CDR potential of BECCS (including LUC and other supply chain emissions, but excluding energy carrier substitution) by 2050 is 5.9 (0.5–11.3) GtCO 2 yr–1 globally, of which 1.6 (0.5–3.5) GtCO 2 yr–1 is available at below USD100 tCO 2–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Shifting to sustainable healthy diets has large potential to achieve global GHG mitigation targets as well as public health and environmental benefits (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
A shift to more sustainable and healthy diets is generally feasible in many regions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
In line with these SDG targets, it is estimated that reducing FLW can free up several million km2 of land (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Regionally, FLW reduction is feasible anywhere but its potential needs to be understood in a wider and changing socio-cultural context that determines nutrition (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The SRCCL (Chapters 2 and 6) finds that some studies indicate significant mitigation potentials for material substitution, but concludes that the global, technical mitigation potential for material substitution for construction applications ranges from 0.25–1 GtCO 2-eq yr–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
The total amounts to 0.66 GtCO 2 yr–1 for the period 2010–2019, which is 1.2% of total global, and 5.5% of AFOLU emissions reported in Table 7.1, over the same time period (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In total, reported funding for AFOLU projects and programmes has been USD4.4 billion over the past decade, or about USD569 million yr–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: low)
Despite widespread effort, AFOLU measures have thus far failed to achieve the large potential for climate mitigation described in earlier IPCC WG III reports (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The limited gains from AFOLU to date appear largely to result from lack of investment and other institutional and social barriers, rather than methodological concerns (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
A large literature has investigated whether PES programmes have successfully protected habitats. Despite concerns, the many lessons learned from PES programme implementation provide critical information that will help policymakers refine future PES programmes to increase their effectiveness (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
When combined with increased non-CO 2 gas emissions, the emission intensity of US agriculture increased from 1.5 to 1.7 tCO 2 ha–1 between 2005 and 2018 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The extent to which the combined influence of these regulations has enhanced carbon storage in ecosystems is not quantified although they are likely to explain some of the persistent carbon sink that has emerged in temperate forests of OECD countries (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Because protected areas limit not just land- use change, but also logging or harvesting non-timber forest products, they may be relatively costly approaches for forest conservation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Efforts to expand property rights, especially community forest management, have reduced carbon emissions from deforestation in tropical forests in the last two decades (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Supply chain management in the food sector encourages more widespread use of conservation measures in agriculture (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
While these analyses establish that many projects to reduce deforestation have overcome hurdles related to additionality (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The protocols to quantify emission reductions in the agricultural sector are available and have been tested, and the main limitation appears to be the lack of available financing or the unwillingness to re-direct current subsidies (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
The presence of significant subsidy programmes intended to improve farmer welfare and rural livelihoods makes it more difficult to implement regulatory programmes aimed at reducing net emissions in agriculture, however, it may increase the potential to implement new subsidy programmes that encourage practices aimed at reducing net emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
It is argued that a carbon tax on only fossil fuel derived emissions, may lead to massive deployment of bioenergy, although the effects of such a policy can be mitigated when combined with policies that encourage sustainable forest management and protection of forest carbon stocks as well as forest management certification (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
However, if private markets emerge for biomass and BECCS on the scale suggested in the SR1.5, policy efforts must ramp up to substantially value, encourage, and protect terrestrial carbon stocks and ecosystems to avoid outcomes inconsistent with many SDGs (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The lack of resources thus far committed to implementing AFOLU mitigation, income and access to alternative sources of income in rural households that rely on agriculture or forests for their livelihoods remains a considerable barrier to adoption of AFOLU (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Without quickly ramping up spending, the lack of funding to implement projects remains a substantial barrier (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Barriers to adoption of AFOLU mitigation will be strongest where historical practices represent long-standing traditions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
AR6 presents new estimates of the mitigation potential for shifts in diets and reductions in food waste, but given long-standing dietary traditions within most cultures, some of the strongest barriers exist for efforts to change diets (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Implementation of nature-based solution may have local or regionally important consequences for other ecosystem services, some of which may be negative (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Climate is expected to reduce crop yields, increase crop and livestock prices, and increase pressure on undisturbed forest land for food production creating new barriers and increasing costs for implementation of many nature-based mitigation techniques (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Factors that reduce permanence or slow forest growth will drive up costs of forest mitigation measures, suggesting that climate change presents a formidable challenge to implementation of nature-based solutions beyond 2030 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Forest management strategies based on biodiversity and ecosystems functioning interactions can augment the effectiveness of forests in reducing climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
There are synergies, trade-offs and co- benefits between ecosystem services and mitigation options with impacts on ecosystem services differing by scale and contexts (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services is critical to sustaining the well-being and livelihoods of poor and marginalised people, and indigenous communities who depend on natural resources (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Nature-based solutions (NBS) with safeguards has immense potential for cost-effective adaptation to climate change; but their impacts will vary by scale and contexts (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)