rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
There is no consensus from models for a systematic change in amplitude of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the 21st century in any of the SSP scenarios assessed (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Internal variability is the main driver of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) observed since the start of the instrumental records (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Multiple lines of evidence, combining multi-model ensemble global projections with those coming from single-model initial-condition large ensembles, show that internal variability is largely contributing to the delayed or absent emergence of the anthropogenic signal in long-term regional mean precipitation changes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Internal variability in ocean dynamics dominates regional patterns on annual to decadal time scales (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The anthropogenic signal in regional sea level change will emerge in most regions by 2100 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Time evolution of mechanisms operating at different time scales can modify the amplitude of the regional-scale response of temperature, and both the amplitude and sign of the response of precipitation, to anthropogenic forcing (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Land-use and aerosol forcings and land–atmosphere feedback play important roles in modulating regional changes, for instance in weather and climate extremes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Multi-model mean and ensemble spread are not sufficient to characterize situations where different models simulate substantially different or even opposite changes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In addition, single-model initial-condition large ensembles of many realizations of internal variability are required to separate internal variability from forced changes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Northern Hemispheric anthropogenic aerosols weakened the regional monsoon circulations in South Asia, East Asia and West Africa during the second half of the 20th century, thereby offsetting the expected strengthening of monsoon precipitation in response to GHG-induced warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
During the 21st century, global land monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in response to GHG warming in all time horizons and scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over South and South East Asia, East Asia and the central Sahel, monsoon precipitation is projected to increase, whereas over North America and the far western Sahel it is projected to decrease (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
At global and regional scales, near-term monsoon changes will be dominated by the effects of internal variability (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Contrary to the expected increase of precipitation under global warming, the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions experienced declining precipitation from the 1950s to 1980s, which is partly attributable to the influence of anthropogenic aerosols (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
A slowdown of the tropical circulation with global warming can partly offset the warming-induced strengthening of precipitation in monsoon regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In the near term, global monsoon changes are likely to be dominated by the effects of internal variability and model uncertainties (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In the long term, global monsoon rainfall change will feature a robust north–south asymmetry characterized by a greater increase in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere and an east–west asymmetry characterized by enhanced Asian– African monsoons and a weakened North American monsoon (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The recent partial recovery and enhanced intensity of monsoon precipitation over West Africa is related to the growing influence of GHGs with an additional contribution due to the reduced cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols, emitted largely from North America and Europe (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The annual contrast between the wettest and driest month of the year is likely to increase by 3–5% per degree Celsius in most monsoon regions in terms of precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, and runoff (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
For the North American monsoon, projections indicate a decrease in precipitation, whereas increased monsoon rainfall is projected over South and South East Asia and over East Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
West African monsoon precipitation is projected to increase over the central Sahel and decrease over the far western Sahel (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken the African and Asian monsoons but strengthen the Southern Hemisphere monsoons (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
It is very likely that mean temperatures have increased in all land regions and will continue to increase at rates greater than the global average (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
These changes are attributed to human influence in almost all regions (medium to high confidence) and will continue through the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In particular, extreme heat would exceed critical thresholds for health, agriculture and other sectors more frequently by the mid 21st century with 2°C of global warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Relative sea level rise is very likely to virtually certain (depending on the region) to continue during the 21st century, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low- lying areas (high confidence) and coastal erosion along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Sea level will continue to rise beyond 2100 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Every region of the world will experience concurrent changes in multiple CIDs by mid-century or at 2°C global warming and above (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Changes in many other regional CIDs have higher confidence later in the 21st century or at higher GWLs (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In tropical regions, recent past temperature distributions have already shifted to a range different to that of the early 20th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
On regional-to-continental scales, trends of increased frequency of hot extremes and decreased frequency of cold extremes are generally consistent with the global-scale trends in mean temperature (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
At increasing warming levels, extreme heat will exceed critical thresholds for health, agriculture and other sectors more frequently (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
For example, by the end of the 21st century, dangerous humid heat thresholds, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) heat index (HI) threshold of 41°C, will be exceeded much more frequently under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than under SSP1-2.6 and will affect many regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In many tropical regions, the number of days per year where a heat index of 41°C is exceeded would increase by more than 100 days relative to the recent past under SSP5-8.5, while this increase will be limited to less than 50 days under SSP1-2.6 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The number of days per year where temperature exceeds 35°C would increase by more than 150 days in many tropical areas, such as the Amazon basin and South East Asia, by the end of century for the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while it is expected to increase by less than 60 days in these areas under SSP1-2.6 (except for the Amazon Basin) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
However, GHG forcing has driven increased contrasts in precipitation amounts between wet and dry seasons and weather regimes over tropical land areas (medium confidence), with a detectable precipitation increase in the northern high latitudes (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased over a majority of land regions with good observational coverage (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
A majority of land areas have experienced decreases in available water in dry seasons due to human-induced climate change associated with changes in evapotranspiration (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Global hydrological models project a larger fraction of land areas to be affected by an increase rather than by a decrease in river floods (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding will increase in many regions around the world on almost all continents (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The proportion of intense TCs, average peak TC wind speeds, and peak wind speeds of the most intense TCs will increase on the global scale with increasing global warming (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Glaciers will continue to shrink and permafrost to thaw in all regions where they are present (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Regional sea level change has been the main driver of changes in extreme sea levels across the quasi-global tide gauge network over the 20th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
With the exception of a few regions with substantial land uplift, relative sea level rise is very likely to virtually certain (depending on the region) to continue during the 21st century, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and coastal erosion along most sandy coasts (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In the open ocean, acidification, changes in sea ice, and deoxygenation have already emerged in many areas (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Marine heatwaves are also expected to increase around the globe over the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The probability of compound events has increased in the past due to human-induced climate change and will likely continue to increase with further global warming, including for concurrent heatwaves and droughts, compound flooding, and the possibility of connected sectors experiencing multiple regional extreme events at the same time (for example, in multiple breadbaskets) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In a number of regions (Southern Africa, the Mediterranean, North Central America, Western North America, the Amazon regions, South-Western South America, and Australia), increases in one or more of drought, aridity and fire weather (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
In another group of regions (North-Western, Central and Eastern North America, Arctic regions, North- Western South America, Northern, Western and Central and Eastern Europe, Siberia, Central, South and East Asia, Southern Australia and New Zealand), decreases in snow and/or ice or increases in pluvial/river flooding (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Increases in heavy precipitation that can lead to pluvial floods (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
North Eastern Africa, East Southern Africa and Central Africa have experienced a decline in rainfall since about 1980 and parts of West Africa an increase (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Increases in the frequency and/or the intensity of heavy rainfall have been observed in East and West Southern Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Increasing trends in river flood occurrence can be identified beyond 1980 in East and West Southern Africa (medium confidence) and Western Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over West Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel subregion and increase along the Guinea Coast subregion (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Rainfall is projected to increase over Eastern Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Trends towards increased hydrological droughts have been observed in the Mediterranean (high confidence) and Western Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
These trends correspond with projected regional increases in aridity and fire weather conditions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over Western Africa and Southern Africa, a future significant increase in wind speed and wind energy potential is projected (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
There is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, East Southern Africa and East Africa (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Additional regional changes in Asia, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include historical trends of annual precipitation that show considerable regional differences (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
East Asian Monsoon precipitation has changed, with drying in the north and wetting in the south since the 1950s, and annual mean precipitation totals very likely have increased over most territories of North Asia since the mid-1970s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
South Asian summer monsoon precipitation decreased over several areas since the mid-20th century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Aridity in East and West Central Asia is projected to increase, especially beyond the middle of the 21st century and global warming levels beyond 2°C (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather seasons are projected to lengthen and intensify everywhere except South East Asia, Tibetan Plateau and Arabian Peninsula (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Over North Asia, increases in permafrost temperature and its thawing have been observed over recent decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Future projections indicate continuing decline in seasonal snow duration, glacial mass, and permafrost area by mid-century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease in most regions of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21st century, and snowline elevations will rise (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Heavy snowfall is increasing in East Asia and North Asia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Daily precipitation extremes have increased over part of the region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Extreme hydrological drought frequency has increased in a region extending from south-west to north-east China, with projected increases of agricultural and ecological drought for 4°C GWL and fire weather for 2°C and above (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Concurrently, total soil moisture is projected to decline extensively (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The frequency of heavy precipitation and flood events has increased over several areas during the last few decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Most of the region has experienced an increase in rainfall intensity but with a reduced number of wet days (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Rainfall is projected to increase in the northern parts of South East Asia and decrease in areas in the Maritime Continent (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Since the mid 1980’s, there has been an increase in the number and intensification rate of intense TCs (medium confidence), with a significant north-westward shift in tracks and a northward shift in their average latitude, increasing exposure over East China, the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Archipelago (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Heavy snowfall is projected to occur more frequently in some parts of Japan (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
More than 60% of glacier mass in the Caucasus is projected to disappear under RCP8.5 emissions by the end of the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
This will contribute to more frequent coastal flooding and higher ETWL in low-lying areas and coastal erosion along sandy beaches (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Agricultural and ecological droughts and hydrological droughts have increased over Southern Australia (medium confidence), and meteorological droughts have decreased over Northern and Central Australia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Relative sea level has increased over the period 1993–2018 at a rate higher than GMSL around Australasia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Agricultural and ecological droughts are projected to increase in Southern and Eastern Australia (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fire weather is projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Snowfall is expected to decrease throughout the region at high altitudes in both Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (medium confidence), with glaciers receding in New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in the south and west of New Zealand (medium confidence) and is projected to decrease in south-west Southern Australia (high confidence), Eastern Australia (medium confidence), and in the north and east of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Aridity is projected to increase with medium confidence in Southern Australia (high confidence in south-west Southern Australia), Eastern Australia (medium confidence) and in the north and east of New Zealand (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
TCs in north-eastern and north Australia are projected to decrease in number (high confidence) but increase in intensity except for ‘east coast lows’ (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: low)
The present day 1-in-100-year ETWL is between 0.5–2.5 m around most of Australia, except the north-western coast where 1-in-100-year ETWL can be as high as 6–7 m. {Box 9.1, 12.3.1.5, 12.4.3.5} TS.4.3.2.4 Central and South America Additional regional changes in Central and South America, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include increases in mean and extreme precipitation in South- Eastern South America since the 1960s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Decreasing trends in mean precipitation and increasing trends in agricultural and ecological drought are observed over North-Eastern South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and pluvial floods is projected to increase over South-Eastern South America, Southern South America, Northern South America, South American Monsoon and North-Eastern South America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Increases of agricultural and ecological drought are projected in South America Monsoon and Southern South America, and fire weather is projected to increase over several regions (Northern South America, the South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South America and South-Western South America) (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Increased mean precipitation amounts at high latitudes in boreal winter and reduced summer precipitation in southern Europe are projected starting from a 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Aridity, agricultural and hydrological droughts and fire weather conditions will increase in the Mediterranean region starting from 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Pluvial flooding will increase everywhere with high confidence except for medium confidence in the Mediterranean; in Western and Central Europe this also applies to river flooding starting from a 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Most periglacial processes in Northern Europe are projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century, even for a low warming scenario (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In the European Mediterranean, the magnitude and sign of observed land precipitation trends depend on time period and exact study region (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
The frequency of Medicanes (tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean) is projected to decrease (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Severe wind storms, tropical cyclones and dust storms in North America are shifting toward more extreme characteristics (medium confidence), and both observations and projections point to strong changes in the seasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions in the coming decades (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
Mean wind speed and wind power potential are projected to decrease in Western North America (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
At sustained GWLs between 3°C and 5°C, nearly all glacial mass in Western Canada and Western North America will disappear (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Fewer but more intense tropical cyclones are projected starting from a 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Higher evapotranspiration under a warming climate can partially offset future increases or amplify future reductions in rainfall, resulting in increased aridity as well as more severe agricultural and ecological drought in the Caribbean (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Shoreline retreat is projected along sandy coasts of most small islands (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
An intensification of the polar water cycle will increase mean precipitation, with precipitation intensity becoming stronger and more likely to be rainfall rather than snowfall (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Permafrost warming, loss of seasonal snow cover, and glacier melt will be widespread (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Relative sea level and coastal flooding are projected to increase in areas other than regions with substantial land uplift (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
In the Arctic, this will result in higher river flood potential and earlier meltwater flooding, altering seasonal characteristics of flooding (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
A lengthening of the fire season (medium confidence) and encroachment of fire regimes into tundra regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Permafrost warming and thawing have been widespread in the Arctic since the 1980s (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
The Pacific and Southern Ocean are projected to freshen and the Atlantic to become more saline (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Anthropogenic warming is very likely to further decrease ocean oxygen concentrations, and this deoxygenation is expected to persist for thousands of years (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Arctic sea ice losses are projected to continue, leading to a practically ice-free Arctic in September by the end of the 21st century under high CO 2 emissions scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Global warming of 2°C above 1850–1900 levels would result in the exceedance of numerous hazard thresholds for pathogens, seagrasses, mangroves, kelp forests, rocky shores, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
These include biodiversity hot spots that will very likely see even more extreme heat and droughts, mountain areas where a projected raising in the freezing level height will alter snow and ice conditions (high confidence), and tropical forests that are increasingly prone to fire weather (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Extreme precipitation is projected to increase in major mountainous regions (medium to high confidence depending on location), with potential cascading consequences of floods, landslides and lake outbursts in all scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
Water cycle changes bring prolonged drought, longer dry seasons and increased fire weather to many tropical forests (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
With global warming, increasing relative sea level compounded by increasing tropical cyclone storm surge and rainfall intensity will increase the probability of coastal city flooding (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Arctic coastal settlements are particularly exposed to climate change due to sea ice retreat (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Improvements in urban climate modelling and climate monitoring networks have contributed to understanding the mutual interaction between regional and urban climate (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
Compared to present day, large implications are expected from the combination of future urban development and more frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, with more hot days and warm nights adding to heat stress in cities (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: very high)
However, the NDCs submitted as of 2020 are insufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to be consistent with trajectories limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)
There was likely a net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0 –0.3 W m–2 in 1850 –1900 relative to 1750 (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: medium)
At the current level of global warming, an observed signal of temperature change relative to the 1850–1900 baseline has emerged above the levels of background variability over virtually all land regions (IPCC AR6_WGI, confidence: high)