rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Over the last decade, forest- and biodiversity-based solutions have gained considerable political traction and social acceptability (high confidence), but in countries with economies highly dependent on the export of agricultural commodities, opportunity costs continue to hinder the expansion of these alternatives, particularly against more profitable land uses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Agro-forestry solutions have strong ecological and adaptive co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Successful implementation requires a strong socioeconomic framework and can offer diverse social, ecological and economic benefits, as well as sequestering carbon (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is extensive experience with hard coastal defence structures (e.g., sea walls), which can be cost-effective in economic terms, depending on the location (medium confidence); however, they are considered maladaptive and unsustainable in some contexts (medium confidence) due to their lack of flexibility or robustness in response to a changing climate, as well as their carbon-intensiveness and potential ecological impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There are financial barriers to implementing sustainable aquaculture and fisheries, even though they can improve employment opportunities, especially for local communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Technical resource availability is still lacking and could represent a barrier to implementing sustainable aquaculture and fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Robust institutional and legal frameworks are needed to guarantee effective adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sustainable aquaculture and fisheries are highly dependent on healthy and resilient ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
They can provide diverse ecosystem services and support coastal ecosystems restoration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This suite of strategies has strong feasibility to build resilience while improving incomes (medium confidence) and providing mitigation co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While technological and ecological feasibility is high, institutional, market and socio-political acceptability remain significant barriers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Improving water use efficiency and water resource management under land and ecosystem transitions has high technological feasibility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, economic and institutional barriers remain and are based on type, scale and location of interventions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Notably, inadequate institutional capacities to prepare for changing water availability, especially in the long term, unsustainable and unequal water use and sharing practices, and fragmented water resource management approaches remain critical barriers to feasibility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These strategies have high economic and environmental feasibility (high confidence) and substantial mitigation co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, high costs, inadequate information and technical know-how, delays between actions and tangible benefits, lack of comprehensive policies, fragmentation across different sectors, inadequate access to credit, and unequal access to resources constrain technological, institutional and socio-cultural feasibility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For urban and infrastructure system transitions, sustainable urban planning can support both adaptation and decarbonisation by mainstreaming climate concerns, including effective land use into urban policies, by promoting resilient and low-carbon infrastructure, and by protecting and integrating carbon-reducing biodiversity and ecosystem services into city planning (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Urban green infrastructure and ecosystem services have high feasibility to support climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in cities, for example to reduce flood exposure and attenuate the urban heat island (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While green infrastructure options are cost-effective and provide co-benefits in terms of ecosystem services such as improved air quality or other health benefits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Governments across scales can support urban sustainable water management by undertaking projects to recycle wastewater and runoff through green infrastructure; enabling greater coherence between urban water and riverine basin management; decentralising water systems; supporting networks for sharing best practices in water supply and storm runoff treatment to scale sustainable management; and foregrounding equity and justice concerns, especially through participation involving informal settlement residents (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Strong and equitable health systems can protect the health of populations in the face of known and unexpected stressors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Health and health systems adaptation is feasible where capacity is well developed, and where options align with national priorities and engage local and international communities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Socio-cultural acceptability of health and health systems adaptation is high and there is significant potential for risk-mitigation and social co-benefits where adaptation addresses the needs of vulnerable regions and populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Microeconomic feasibility and socioeconomic vulnerability reduction potentials are also high (high confidence), although economic feasibility may pose a significant challenge in low-income settings (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
However, inadequate institutional capacity and resource availability represent major barriers, particularly for health systems struggling to manage current health risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is strong evidence that disaster risk management (DRM) is highly feasible when supported by strong institutions, good governance, local engagement and trust across actors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
DRM is constrained by lack of capacity, inadequate institutions, limited coordination across levels of government (high confidence), lack of transparency and accountability, and poor communication (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There is a preference for top-down DRM processes, which can undermine local institutions and perpetuate uneven power relationships (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Moves towards community-based and ecosystem-based DRM are promising but uneven and may increase vulnerability if they fail to address underlying and structural determinants of vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate services that are demand-driven and context-specific (e.g., to a particular crop or agricultural system) build adaptation capacity and enable short- and longer-term risk management decisions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Metrics to assess the economic outcomes of climate services remain insufficient to capture longer-term benefits of interventions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While technological capacity and political acceptance is high (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Risk insurance can be a feasible tool to adapt to climate risks and support sustainable development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Insurance mechanisms enjoy wide legal and regulatory acceptability among policymakers and are institutionally feasible (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, socio-cultural and financial barriers make insurance spatially and temporally challenging to implement (high confidence), even though it can improve the health and well-being of populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The risk of generating maladaptive outcomes can further limit the uptake of insurance, as it can provide disincentives for reducing risk over the long term (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ensuring equitable access to and benefits from innovative financial products (e.g., loans) is needed to guarantee successful uptake of insurance across all the population (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Migration has been used by millions around the world to maintain and improve their well-being in the face of changed circumstances, often as part of labour or livelihood diversification (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Properly supported and, where levels of agency and assets are high, migration as a climate response can reduce exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These households can undertake distress migration, which results in negative adaptive and resilience outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Outcomes can be improved through a systematic examination of the political economy of local and regional sectors that employ precarious communities and by addressing vulnerabilities that pose barriers to in situ adaptation and livelihood strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Migrants and their sending and receiving communities can be supported through temporary labour-migration schemes, improving discourses on migration, and matching existing migration agreements with development objectives (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Planned relocation and resettlement have low feasibility as climate responses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Previous disaster- and development-related relocation has been expensive, contentious, posed multiple challenges for governments and amplified existing, and generated new, vulnerabilities for the people involved (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Planned relocation will be increasingly required as climate change undermines habitability, especially for coastal areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Full participation of those affected, ensuring human rights-based approaches, preserving cultural, emotional and spiritual bonds to place, and dedicated governance structures and associated funding are associated with improved outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Improving the feasibility of planned relocation and resettlement is a high priority for managing climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since SR1.5, there has not been significant change in the feasibility of the first two options as they continue to be implemented successfully, allowing for power generation to maintain or increase its reliability during extreme weather events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The main difference from SR1.5 is that resilient power infrastructure now includes distributed generation utilities, such as microgrids, as there is increasing evidence of its role in reducing vulnerability, especially within underserved populations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
As with previous options, the technological means exist to create redundancy in power generation, transmission and distribution systems and their implementation ensures the continuous functionality of emergency services, such as communications, health and water pumping, amongst others, in urban, peri-urban and rural landscapes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Moreover, while once neglected, rapidly increasing attention has been paid to the equity and justice dimensions of planning and implementing green infrastructure initiatives, such as inclusion of citizens in decision making or the allocation of benefits and impacts of projects (Anguelovski et al., 2019b; Buijs et al., 2019; Langemeyer et al., 2020; Venter et al., 2020) Institutional barriers constrain the feasibility of urban green infrastructure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The major drivers of the increase are climate hazards including droughts, floods and storms.Over the past 30 years, major crop yields decreased by 4–10% globally due to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
By 2019, the largest growth in absolute emissions occurred in CO2 from fossil fuels and industry followed by CH4, whereas the highest relative growth occurred in fluorinated gases, starting from low levels in 1990 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Net anthropogenic CO2 emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (CO2-LULUCF) are subject to large uncertainties and high annual variability, with low confidence even in the direction of the long-term trend.9 (Figure SPM.1) {Figure 2.2, Figure 2.5, 2.2, Figure TS.2} B.1.3 Historical cumulative net CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019 were 2400 ± 240 GtCO2 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The annual average CO2-FFI emissions reduction in 2020 relative to 2019 was about 5.8% [5.1–6.3%], or 2.2 [1.9–2.4] GtCO2 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Emissions growth in AFOLU, comprising emissions from agriculture (mainly CH4 and N2O) and forestry and other land use (mainly CO2) is more uncertain than in other sectors due to the high share and uncertainty of CO2-LULUCF emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
About half of total net AFOLU emissions are from CO2-LULUCF, predominantly from deforestation14 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
For comparison, the carbon intensity of primary energy is projected to decrease globally by about 3.5% yr–1 between 2020 and 2050 in modelled scenarios that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), and by about 7.7% yr–1 globally in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot.16 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have much lower per capita emissions (1.7 tCO2-eq and 4.6 tCO2-eq, respectively) than the global average (6.9 tCO2-eq), excluding CO2-LULUCF.18 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Innovation has provided opportunities to lower emissions and reduce emission growth and created social and environmental co-benefits (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
For example, sensors, internet of things, robotics, and artificial intelligence can improve energy management in all sectors, increase energy efficiency, and promote the adoption of many low-emission technologies, including decentralised renewable energy, while creating economic opportunities (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
However, some of these climate change mitigation gains can be reduced or counterbalanced by growth in demand for goods and services due to the use of digital devices (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Digital technology supports decarbonisation only if appropriately governed (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
At least 18 countries that had Kyoto targets for the first commitment period have had sustained absolute emission reductions for at least a decade from 2005, of which two were countries with economies in transition (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: very high)
The Paris Agreement, with near universal participation, has led to policy development and target-setting at national and sub-national levels, in particular in relation to mitigation, as well as enhanced transparency of climate action and support (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
By 2020, over 20% of global GHG emissions were covered by carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, although coverage and prices have been insufficient to achieve deep reductions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
By 2020, there were ‘direct’ climate laws focused primarily on GHG reductions in 56 countries covering 53% of global emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Policy coverage remains limited for emissions from agriculture and the production of industrial materials and feedstocks (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Multiple lines of evidence suggest that mitigation policies have led to avoided global emissions of several GtCO2-eq yr–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
These financial flows remained heavily focused on mitigation, are uneven, and have developed heterogeneously across regions and sectors (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In 2018, public and publicly mobilised private climate finance flows from developed to developing countries were below the collective goal under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement to mobilise USD100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Public and private finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
A gap remains between global GHG emissions in 2030 associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26 and those associated with modelled mitigation pathways assuming immediate action (for quantification see Table SPM.1).26 The magnitude of the emissions gap depends on the global warming level considered and whether only unconditional or also conditional elements of NDCs27 are considered.28 (high confidence) {3.5, 4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 4} B.6.2 Global emissions in 2030 associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26 are lower than the emissions implied by the original NDCs29 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The original emissions gap has fallen by about 20% to one-third relative to pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action (category C3a in Table SPM.2), and by about 15–20% relative to pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (category C1 in Table SPM.2) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Continued investments in unabated high-emitting infrastructure and limited development and deployment of low-emitting alternatives prior to 2030 would act as barriers to this acceleration and increase feasibility risks (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Without a strengthening of policies beyond those that are implemented by the end of 2020, GHG emissions are projected to rise beyond 2025, leading to a median global warming of 3.2 [2.2 to 3.5] °C by 210038, 39 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
This compares with reductions of 43% [34–60%] by 2030 and 84% [73–98%] by 2050 in pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (C1, Table SPM.2) (high confidence).41 In modelled pathways that return warming to 1.5°C (>50%) after a high overshoot,42 GHG emissions are reduced by 23% [0–44%] in 2030 and by 75% [62–91%] in 2050 (C2, Table SPM.2) (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Modelled pathways that are consistent with NDCs announced prior to COP26 until 2030 and assume no increase in ambition thereafter have higher emissions, leading to a median global warming of 2.8 [2.1–3.4] °C by 2100 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
There are similar reductions of non-CO2 emissions by 2050 in both types of pathways: CH4 is reduced by 45% [25–70%]; N2O is reduced by 20% [–5 to +55%]; and F-gases are reduced by 85% [20–90%].43 Across most modelled pathways, this is the maximum technical potential for anthropogenic CH4 reductions in the underlying models (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Further emissions reductions, as illustrated by the IMP-SP pathway, may be achieved through changes in activity levels and/or technological innovations beyond those represented in the majority of the pathways (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Pathways that exceed warming of >4°C (≥50%) (C8, SSP5-8.5, Table SPM.2) would imply a reversal of current technology and/or mitigation policy trends (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Such warming could occur in emission pathways consistent with policies implemented by the end of 2020 if climate sensitivity is higher than central estimates (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In modelled pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) (C3 category), there is no significant difference in warming by 2100 between those pathways that reach net zero GHGs (around 30%) and those that do not (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) or lower and that do reach net zero GHG, net zero GHG occurs around 10–40 years later than net zero CO2 emissions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
As indicated by the ranges, choices in one sector can be compensated for by choices in another while being consistent with assessed warming levels.52 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Depending on its availability, CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing stranded assets (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
The combined global discounted value of the unburned fossil fuels and stranded fossil fuel infrastructure has been projected to be around USD1–4 trillion from 2015 to 2050 to limit global warming to approximately 2°C, and it will be higher if global warming is limited to approximately 1.5°C (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
About 50–80% of CH4 emissions from these fossil fuels could be avoided with currently available technologies at less than USD50 tCO2-eq–1 (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
With ambitious and immediate mitigation efforts, including high levels of electrification and improved energy and material efficiency, global consumption-based urban CO2 and CH4 emissions could be reduced to 3 GtCO2-eq in 2050 in the modelled scenario with very low GHG emissions (SSP1-1.9).56 (medium confidence) {8.3} C.6.2 The potential and sequencing of mitigation strategies to reduce GHG emissions will vary depending on a city’s land use, spatial form, development level, and state of urbanisation (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
New and emerging cities will have significant infrastructure development needs to achieve high quality of life, which can be met through energy efficient infrastructures and services, and people-centred urban design (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
For cities, three broad mitigation strategies have been found to be effective when implemented concurrently: (i) reducing or changing energy and material use towards more sustainable production and consumption; (ii) electrification in combination with switching to low-emission energy sources; and (iii) enhancing carbon uptake and storage in the urban environment, for example through bio-based building materials, permeable surfaces, green roofs, trees, green spaces, rivers, ponds and lakes. (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: very high)
Demand-focused interventions can reduce demand for all transport services and support the shift to more energy efficient transport modes (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Electric vehicles powered by low-emissions electricity offer the largest decarbonisation potential for land-based transport, on a life cycle basis (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Sustainable biofuels can offer additional mitigation benefits in land-based transport in the short and medium term (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Sustainable biofuels, low-emissions hydrogen, and derivatives (including synthetic fuels) can support mitigation of CO2 emissions from shipping, aviation, and heavy-duty land transport but require production process improvements and cost reductions (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Many mitigation strategies in the transport sector would have various co-benefits, including air quality improvements, health benefits, equitable access to transportation services, reduced congestion, and reduced material demand (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
In both categories of scenarios, the transport sector likely does not reach zero CO2 emissions by 2100 so negative emissions are likely needed to counterbalance residual CO2 emissions from the sector (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Investments in public inter- and intra-city transport and active transport infrastructure (e.g., bicycle and pedestrian pathways) can further support the shift to less GHG-intensive transport modes (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Combinations of systemic changes, including teleworking, digitalisation, dematerialisation, supply chain management, and smart and shared mobility may reduce demand for passenger and freight services across land, air, and sea (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Some of these changes could lead to induced demand for transport and energy services, which may decrease their GHG emissions reduction potential (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)
Costs of electrified vehicles, including automobiles, two- and three-wheelers, and buses, are decreasing and their adoption is accelerating, but they require continued investments in supporting infrastructure to increase scale of deployment (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: high)
Advances in battery technologies could facilitate the electrification of heavy-duty trucks and complement conventional electric rail systems (IPCC AR6_WGIII, confidence: medium)