rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
While there is a wide range in quantifications, there is high agreement that the consequences for socioeconomic and natural systems can be substantial, with more severe consequences in the south than in the north (very high confidence); and there is some indication also for a west-to-east gradient, with higher uncertainty in eastern WCE and EEU, which makes adaptation more challenging (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Furthermore, the food–water–energy–land nexus plays an important role in amplifying overall risk levels in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Southern Europe, European cities and coastal areas are projected to become hotspots of multiple risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The number of people exposed to multiple KRs in Europe are projected to at least double at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL (Forzieri et al., 2017; Byers et al., 2018; Arnell et al., 2019), but risk levels are already higher at 1.5°C GWL than today for a number of KRs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Economic losses and damages for European economies from multiple KRs are projected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The main driver for this increase in economic losses and damages is mortality due to heat stress (me- dium confidence), followed by reduced labour productivity, coastal and inland flooding, water scarcity and drought (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptation is projected to reduce macroeconomic costs, but residual costs will remain particularly for warming above 3°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Progress is also observed at the level of the EU with the adoption of the new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change in 2021 (European Comission, 2021a), and regionally, particularly in federalist and decentralised states (Steurer and Clar, 2018; EEA, 2020b; Pietrapertosa et al., 2021), and locally, with an increasing number of European cities planning for climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is evidence of action across sectors and scales, even in European countries where national adaptation frameworks are absent (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The availability of knowledge, human and financial resources appears important for proactive adaptation (Termeer et al., 2012; Sanderson et al., 2018), while adaptation is also strongly dependent on economic and social development (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yet, high GWL scenarios beyond 2100 are often not considered in climate-change adaptation planning due to a lack of perceived usability, missing socioeconomic information, constraining institutional settings and conflicting decision-making timeframes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Adaptive planning and decision making are still limited across Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since AR5, progress has been made to increase coordinated adaptation actions, but so far this is limited to a few sectors (mostly water management and agriculture) and European countries and regions (mostly SEU, and WCE depending on impact) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite evidence of emerging bottom-up (e.g., citizens and business) and top-down initiatives (e.g., governmental plans and instruments to ensure action), there are considerable barriers to mainstreaming adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
With higher warming levels, financing needs are likely to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Whereas some sectors, such as flood management, banking and insurance, and energy (Bank of England, 2015; Gasbarro and Pinkse, 2016; Bank of England, 2019; Botzen et al., 2019), have generally made moderate progress on adaptation planning across Europe, there are key vulnerable economic sectors that are in earlier stages, including aviation (Burbidge, 2018), ports and shipping (Becker et al., 2018; Ng et al., 2018), and ICT (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Perceived personal responsibility for tackling climate change remains low across the EU (Figure 13.35) and partly explains why household adaptation remains limited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Householders’ risk perception and concern about climate change fluctuates in response to media coverage and significant weather or sociopolitical events (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
On average across Europe, and particularly in relation to gradual change, compared with experts, non-experts continue to underestimate climate-change risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As well as temporal trends in climate-change risk perception, the lit- erature since AR5 continues to show much heterogeneity (both within and between nations) among householders in respect of risk percep- tion (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Stronger evidence exists since AR5 that experience of extreme weather events can shape climate-change risk perceptions, if these events are attributed to climate change or evoke negative emotions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation responses across European regions and sectors are more often incremental than transformative (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This includes extreme weather events, financial crises, for example in Malmö (Anderson, 2014; Isaksson and Heikkinen, 2018), and the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., Milan), all of which have disrupted the status quo and accelerated innovation and implementation (e.g., Milan; see Box 13.3; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7).Considerable barriers exist that prevent system transitions from taking place in Europe, including institutional and behavioural lock-ins such as administrative routines, certain types of legislation and dominant paradigms of problem solving (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Addressing these risks has been made more urgent by delays due to misinformation about climate science that has sowed uncertainty and impeded recognition of risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Immediate, widespread and coordinated implementation of adaptation measures aimed at reducing risks and focused on equity have the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans, ensure sustainable livelihoods and protect the long-term biodiversity, and ecological and economic productivity, in North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Despite scientific certainty of the anthropogenic influence on climate change, misinformation and politicisation of climate-change science has created polarisation in public and policy domains in North America, particularly in the USA, limiting climate action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vested interests have generated rhetoric and misinformation that undermines climate science and disregards risk and urgency (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Resultant public misperception of climate risks and polarised public support for climate actions is delaying urgent adaptation planning and implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
High temperatures have increased mortality and morbidity (very high confidence), with impacts that vary by age, gender, location and socioeconomic conditions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.increased risk of vector-borne (very high confidence), water-borne (high confidence) and food-borne diseases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Changes in climate and extreme events have been linked to wide- ranging negative mental health outcomes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The loss of access to marine and terrestrial sources of protein has impacted the nutrition of subsistence-dependent communities across North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has increased the extent of warmer and drier conditions favourable for wildfires (medium confidence) that increase respiratory distress from smoke (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate change and extreme weather events have impacted North American agroecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has generally reduced agricultural productivity by 12.5% since 1961, with progressively greater losses moving south from Canada to Mexico and in drought-prone rain-fed systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Loss of availability and access to marine and terrestrial sources of protein has impaired food security and nutrition of subsistence-dependent Indigenous Peoples across North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change has impacted aquaculture (high confidence) and induced rapid redistribution of species (very high confidence), and population declines of multiple key fisheries (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reduced snowpack and earlier runoff (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent severe droughts, floods and harmful algal and pathogen events have caused harm to large populations and key eco- nomic sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Heavy exploitation of limited water supplies, especially in the western USA and northern Mexico, and deteriorating freshwater management infrastructure, have heightened the risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective examples of freshwater resource adaptation planning are already underway, but coordinated adapta- tion implementation across multiple conflicting interests and users is complicated and time-consuming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Larger losses and adaptation costs are observed for sectors with high climate exposures, including tourism, fisheries, and agriculture (high confidence) and outdoor labour (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Disaster planning and spending, insurance, markets, and individual and household-level adaptation have acted to moderate effects to date (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts are particularly apparent for Indigenous Peoples for whom culture, identity, commerce, health and well-being are closely connected to a resilient environment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Higher temperatures have been associated with violent and property crime in the USA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Rising air, water, ocean and ground temperatures have restructured ecosystems and contributed to the redistribution (very high confidence) and mortality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Extreme heat and precipitation trends on land have increased vegetation stress and mortality, reduced soil quality and altered ecosystem processes including carbon and freshwater cycling (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Warm and dry conditions associated with climate change have led to tree die-offs (high confidence) and increased prevalence of catastrophic wildfire (medium confidence) with an increase in the size of severely burned areas in western North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and ecosystem-based management have been effective adaptation approaches in the past but are increasingly exceeded by climate extremes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change has contributed to cascading environmental and sociocultural impacts in the Arctic (high to very high confidence) that have adversely, and often irreversibly, altered Northern livelihoods, cultural activities, essential services, health, food and nutritional security, community connectivity and well-being (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Humidity-enhanced heat stress, aridification and extreme precipitation events that lead to severe flooding, erosion, debris flows and ultimately loss of ecosystem function, life and property are projected to intensify (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming is projected to increase heat-related mortality (very high confidence) and morbidity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Vector-borne disease transmission, water-borne disease risks, food safety risks and mental health outcomes are projected to increase this century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Available adaptation options will be less effective or unable to protect human health under high-emission scenarios (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change will continue to shift North American agricultural and fishery suitability ranges (high confidence) and intensify production losses of key crops (high confidence), livestock (medium confidence), fisheries (high confidence) and aquaculture products (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In the absence of mitigation, incremental adaptation measures may not be sufficient to address rapidly changing conditions and extreme events, increasing the need for cross-sectoral coordination in implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Combining sustainable intensification, approaches based on Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, and ecosystem-based methods with inclusive and self- determined decision making, will result in more equitable food and nutritional security (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hotter droughts and progressive loss of seasonal water storage in snow and ice will tend to reduce summer season stream flows in much of western North America, while population growth, extensive irrigated agriculture and the needs of threatened and endangered aquatic species will continue to place high demands on those flows (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Hard limits to adaptation may be reached for outdoor labour (medium confidence) and nature-based winter tourism activities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
At higher levels of warming, climate impacts may pose systemic risks to financial markets through impacts on transportation systems, supply chains and major infrastructure, as well as global-scale challenges to trade (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognising Indigenous Peoples’ Rights, and supporting adaptation underpinned by Indigenous knowledge are critical to reducing climate-change risks to achieve adaptation success (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Widespread adoption of these practices and tools for infrastructure planning, disaster risk reduction, ecosystem management, budgeting practices, insurance, and climate risk reporting supports planning for a future with more climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased capacity to support the equitable resolution of existing and emerging resource disputes (local to international) will reduce climate impacts on livelihoods and improve the effectiveness of resource management (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recognition of the need for adaptation across North America is increasing, but action has been mostly gradual, incremental and reactive (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Current practices will be increasingly insufficient without coordination and integration of efforts through equitable policy focused on modifying land-use impacts, consumption patterns, economic activities and emphasising NbS (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Transformational, long-term adaptation action that reduces risk and increases resilience can address rapidly escalating impacts in the long-term, especially if coupled with moderate to high mitigation measures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Annual precipitation has increased in recent decades in northern and eastern areas (CA-PR, CA-QU, US-NP , US-SP , US-MW, US-NE, US-AK) (high confidence), and has decreased across the western part of the continent (CA-BC, US-SW, US-NW, MX-NW) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Snowpack and snow extent across much of Canada and the western USA have declined as temperatures have increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
High Arctic sea ice retreat since 1971 and increases in open- water duration in the most recent decade are unprecedented (Box et al., 2019) and most pronounced in the Chukchi, Bering and Beaufort seas (US-AK, CA-NW) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming of North American offshore waters is significant and attributable to human activities, particularly along the Atlantic coast, contributing to sea level rise (SLR) through thermal expansion (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Acidification of North American coastal waters has occurred in conjunction with increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration (Mathis et al., 2015; Jewett and Romanou, 2017; Claret et al., 2018) combined with other local acidifying inputs such as nitrogen and sulphur deposition (Doney et al., 2007) and freshwater nutrient input (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Total precipitation is projected to increase across the northern half of North America (very high confidence) and decrease in southwest North America (MX-SW, MX-NW, US-SW) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As temperatures rise, snow extent, duration of snow cover and accumulated snowpack are virtually certain to decline in subarctic regions of North America (Gutierrez et al., 2021a; McCrary and Mearns, 2019; Mudryk et al., 2021), with corresponding effects on snow- related hydrological changes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate change is projected to magnify the impact of tropical cyclones in US-NE, MX-NE, US-SP, and US-SE by increasing rainfall (Patricola and Wehner, 2018) and extreme wind speed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The coastal region at severe risk from tropical storms is projected to expand northward within US- NE (medium confidence) (Kossin et al., 2017).Additional reduction in polar sea ice is virtually certain (Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Mudryk et al., 2021), with the North American Arctic projected to be seasonally ice free at least once per decade under 2°C of global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Duration of freshwater lake ice across the northern USA and southern Canada is projected to diminish (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean acidification (OA) along North American coastlines is projected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Despite expert scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, there is polarisation and an ongoing debate over the reality of anthropogenic climate change in the public and policy domains, with attendant risks to society (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Rhetoric and misinformation on climate change and the deliberate undermining of science have contributed to misperceptions of the scientific consensus, uncertainty, disregarded risk and urgency, and dissent (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Vocal groups can affect public discourse and weaken public support for climate mitigation and adaptation policies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Political affiliation and partisan group identity contribute to polarisation on the causes and state of climate change, most notably in the USA (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Communicating to educate or enhance knowledge on climate-change science or consensus can, but does not necessarily lead individuals to revise their beliefs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Psychological distancing–the perception that the greatest impacts occur sometime in the distant future and to people and places far away–can lead to discounting of risk and the need for adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Defining coherent groups based on variations in beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences offers opportunities for effectively engaging with segments of the population instead of using the same approach for everyone (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Current and projected climate-change impacts disproportionately harm Indigenous Peoples’ livelihoods and economies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Climate-change impacts have harmful effects on Indigenous Peoples’ public health, physical health and mental health, including harmful effects connected to the cultural and community foundations of health (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Such IK underpins successful climate-change adaptation and mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Indigenous self-determination and self-governance are the foundations of adaptive strategies that improve understanding and research on climate change, develop actionable community plans and policies on climate change, and have demonstrable influence in improving the design and allocation of national, regional and international programmes relating to climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Ranges and abundances of species continue to shift in response to warming throughout North America (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Future climate change will continue to affect species and ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-induced shifts in the timing of biological events (phenology) continue to be a well-documented ecological response (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Severe ecosystem consequences of warming and drying are well documented (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Significant ecosystem changes are expected from projected climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-change impacts on natural disturbances have affected ecosystems (very high confidence) (Table 14.2; see Box 14.2), and these impacts will increase with future climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Effects include widespread tree mortality (Allen et al., 2015; Kane et al., 2017; van Mantgem et al., 2018) and accelerated ecosystem transformation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected climate change will cause habitat loss, alter physical and bio- logical processes, and decrease water quality in freshwater ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Effective climate-informed ecosystem management requires a well- coordinated suite of adaptation efforts (e.g., assessment, planning, funding, implementation and evaluation) that is co-produced among stakeholders, Indigenous Peoples and across sectors (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Higher ocean temperatures have directly affected food-web structure (Gibert, 2019) and altered physiological rates, distribution, phenology and behaviour of marine species with cascading effects on food-web dynamics (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Pacific coastal waters from Mexico to Canada and US mid-Atlantic coastal waters have a high proportion of species (>5% of all marine species) near their upper thermal limit, representing hotspots of risk from MHWs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change has induced phenological and spatial shifts in primary productivity with cascading impacts on food webs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In response, increased burned area in recent decades in western North America has been facilitated by anthropogenic climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Climate change is projected to increase fire activity in many places in North America during the coming decades (see also AR6, WGI, Chapter 12, Ranasinghe et al., 2021) (Boulanger et al., 2014; Williams et al., 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020), via longer fire seasons (Wotton and Flannigan, 1993; USGCRP , 2017), long-term warming (Villarreal et al., 2019; Wahl et al., 2019) and increased lightning frequency in some areas of the USA and Canada (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts on Natural Systems Although fire is a natural process in many North American ecosystems, increases in burned area and severity of wildland fires have had significant impacts on natural ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projected future fire activity will continue to affect ecosystems and alter their structure and function (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Impacts on Human Systems Increased fire activity, partly attributable to anthropogenic climate change, has had direct and indirect effects on mortality and morbidity, economic losses and costs, key infrastructure, cultural resources and water resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Poor air quality from fires caused increased respiratory distress (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Adaptation Wildland fire risks are not equitably distributed as they intersect with exposure and socioeconomic attributes (e.g., age, income, ethnicity) to influence vulnerability and adaptive capacity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Although innovative, holistic approaches to wildland fire management are becoming more common across North America, broader application is necessary to address the growing risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)