rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Early-warning systems are an adaptation that can benefit more than 5 billion people (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While insurance is increasingly accepted as an adaptation option (Linnerooth-Bayer and Hochrainer-Stigler, 2015), positive outcomes are not guaranteed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To avoid this, people simultaneously invest in insurance and adaptations that reduce vulnerability/exposure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ex-post risk management relies on national assistance, social safety nets (Section 7.4.2.1.3; Béné et al., 2012; Elmi and Minja, 2019) and support from social networks as well as lending from international institutions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Over the years, regional cooperation, such as through the regional sovereign insurance pools in the Caribbean, the Pacific and Africa, but also transboundary risk management elsewhere have become more important (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Risk financing, especially insurance, is also common in higher-income countries with well-developed insurance markets and higher levels of insurance penetration than in lower-income countries, illustrated by the purple bar in Figure 17.5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Moderate investment focused on adaptive capacity In contrast to the ‘extensive protection’ scenario, many regions of the world bear greater resemblance to the second typology in Figure 17.5 ‘moderate investment focused on adaptive capacity’ (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In conflict-affected areas similar to the third category of ‘little adaptation investment’, a combination of high vulnerability and relatively less support for adaptation means that there is a large amount of ‘residual risk’, in which residents cope with the impacts of extreme events on a regular basis (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While adaptation is rarely focused on taking advantage of opportunities presented by a changed climate, there are numerous co-benefits of adaptation opportunities, from health to reduced emissions to ecosystem services (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In contrast to a broadening literature on conceptualisation and policy proposal, there has been little evidence reported in the literature on transformational adaptation and risk management at scale of implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, several adaptations related to the RKR on risks to peace and migration, namely permanent migration, and cooperative governance, require moderate to high levels of transformation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Some behavioural adaptations, such as changing diets and reducing food waste, can also require large transformations in land use and food culture (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Spatial planning, including urban zoning, also tends to be more transformational (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
On the other end of the spectrum, disaster early-warning systems tend to be incremental rather than transformational (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For example, improvements in agricultural and fishing practices can be done with moderate transformation to systems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Similarly, insurance tends to require less transformation, as it can allow people to maintain existing systems while being more resilient to climate-related shocks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
None of the 24 adaptation options are consistently beneficial for vulnerable and marginalised groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Both RKRs and systems are facing substantial (residual) risk, characterised by adaptation limits and sharing heatwaves as the hazard, for which climate change has been considered the major driver of increasing intensity and frequency (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The discussion shows that heat has become a significant health risk globally, incurring severe mortality and morbidity in all world regions with annual heat-related deaths estimated around 300,000 with millions affected (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation, if upgraded to also consider transformational interventions, will thus help to reduce heat risks (medium to high confidence, limited evidence), albeit with reduced effectiveness at higher levels of warming, particularly in regions (Africa, Asia) where lethal heatwaves are projected to occur almost annually towards later in the 21st (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Yet, across all regions there is limited evidence on proposed transformational adaptation and very little evidence regarding implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coral reefs across the tropics have recently seen massive bleaching events (such as for the Great Barrier Reefs) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Evidence suggests that already at further warming of 1.5°C coral reefs are put at high risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Modelling has shown, however, that the effectiveness of such high-risk interventions declines beyond 2°C of global warming (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Already for limited warming beyond 1.5°C for mid-century with increasing intensity and frequency of marine heatwaves, hard limits are projected to become manifest in terms of widespread decline and loss of structural integrity (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Transformational adaptation, while requiring difficult choices to be made, is being discussed to help overcome soft limits through livelihood diversification for alternative income sources, assisted migration and planned relocation of communities dependent on the services provided by the reef ecosystem (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The pathway to a decision may not be linear, depending on when and in what detail the decision-making or consultative group may need to be understanding the climate risk and its real-world context (sense-making, modelling), has sufficient background to analyse and explore options for ameliorating the risk (analysis, exploration), or is ready for interpreting the analyses and deciding on the requirements and strategies for implementing a chosen strategy (interpretation–implementation) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The development of decision-support tools for climate risk management (Palutikof et al., 2019a; Palutikof et al., 2019b) and more generally (Papathanasiou et al., 2016), along with archives of experiences from practitioners (Watkiss and Hunt, 2013; Section 17.5; Bowyer et al., 2014; French, 2020), means that some aspects of the decision-making process can be circumvented or at least streamlined as that experience is re-used (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
No single approach to decision-making best suits an individual climate risk across any adaptation context (Richards et al., 2013), although there is now a greater awareness of the methods and approaches that are available and their requirements for best practice (Hurlbert et al., 2019) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sections 8.4.5.6, 16.4 and 17.2 corroborate these findings concluding that, depending on mitigation and adaptation pathways, residual risks in key systems in many regions will create potential for negative impacts beyond adaptation limits (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This ambiguity has persisted, and a policy space for L&D has not clearly been delimited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is evidence that, without strong risk management and adaptation, losses and damages will continue to affect the poorest vulnerable populations, potentially creating poverty traps (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The existential dimension There has been less and often implicit discussion on the existential dimension of climate-related risk as pertaining to L&D (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
As national and donor-related funding for impacts and risk management remains limited (Schäfer and Künzel, 2019; 17.2; Serdeczny, 2019) even at current global warming, many highly exposed developing countries remain financially constrained in their capacity to attend to residual impacts and risk management needs (Linnerooth-Bayer and Hochrainer-Stigler, 2015; Roberts et al., 2017; UNEP , 2021a) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Liability and compensation, implying legally defined reimbursement of losses and damages attributable to climate change, remain contentious in L&D dialogue (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Overall, the L&D dialogue under the WIM supported by an increasing body of research has made important advances with regard to the two functions of knowledge generation and coordination, yet less so on action and support (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Resolution on the last item will need additional attention as, despite the coalescence of themes, the L&D dialogue continues to proceed across interlinked yet contested discussion strands.Cross-Chapter Box LOSS (continued) Processes and methods to facilitate decision-making, from problem recognition to implementing a solution, have evolved in many contexts, disciplines and applications over the last century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
It focuses on decision-analytic methods, noting that decision-support tools will underpin many of these methods by organising information (Bourne et al., 2016; Papathanasiou et al., 2016; Ceccato et al., 2018; Haße and Kind, 2018) or support modelling (Papathanasiou et al., 2016; Kwakkel, 2017; Gardiner et al., 2018), sometimes with a particular decision-analytic process in mind (Hadka et al., 2015; Torresan et al., 2016; Tonmoy et al., 2018).17.3.1.1 Factors to Consider in Selecting Methods to Facilitate Decision-Making The choice of methods and approaches to decision-making for climate risks (next section) will depend on (i) the cognitive needs of the deliberations, otherwise considered to be the phase in developing a decision, (ii) the types of models and modelling available to facilitate the deliberations, (iii) the degree of uncertainty surrounding the choices and (iv) the context of a choice (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sensitivity and robustness analyses can be useful if conditions are favourable to supplement the decision analysis, setting bounds on some of the residual uncertainty (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Validation of models and verification of data (Tittensor et al., 2018) are becoming highlighted as important steps in this phase or in the sense- making phase, particularly in their capacity to understand and test decision makers and stakeholders’ perceptions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Randomisation methods, Bayesian methods, interval methods, multi- criteria decision analysis (MCDA), decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) and economic and financial approaches (e.g., Real Options Analysis) are tools of choice in this phase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Decision-support tools in the provision of data and/or modelling methods are regularly used in this and the sense-making phase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Decision process management tools and methods for communicating choices, outcomes and implementation are expected to be used to provide support in this phase, particularly for understanding whether the advice is fit for purpose, and the efficacy of choices are clear (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Decision makers will be better able to choose decision-analytic methods when they have an understanding of the types, scale and breadth of uncertainties around the climate risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The Cynefin framework (Snowden, 2002; French, 2013) is a policy-driven framework that broadly categorises the decision context of uncertainty within which decision makers and policy analysts may find themselves (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Some analyses partially ignore uncertainties relating to the former in order to focus on conflicts in the values held by different stakeholders and help structure debate (Korhonen and Wallenius, 2020; French, 2020), while others build very sophisticated models of the external world to predict potential consequences, but in doing so lose transparency and risk becoming untrustworthy black boxes to many stakeholders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Elicitation methods help reduce these uncertainties (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In addition, informal decision processes can assist in developing consensus in approaches and outcomes (Orlove et al., 2020).17.3.1.2 Decision-Analytic Methods Used in Decision-Making and Climate Risk Management Entities making decisions (countries, regions, organisations and individuals) select methods that best suit them in their context (Fünfgeld et al., 2018; Shi et al., 2019; French, 2020) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Well-designed decision processes recognise the informal and seek to gain information from it without introducing bias (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A higher degree of public participation can lead to more transformational adaptation as well as to higher ambition for local mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Challenges to stakeholder participation are access to state-of-the-art science, capacity to recognise and respond to non-reliable or false climate science information, and the removal of cognitive and other biases (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Participatory and elicitation approaches, where the concerns and involvement of a broader range of interest groups and stakeholders are taken into account, can improve the effectiveness of decision-making (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Specifically, for climate change adaptation, these decision- making strategies can incorporate expert, Indigenous and local knowledge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Bayesian methods are increasingly used in advancing approaches for decision-making and support in climate adaptation (Sperotto et al., 2017), by being able to include stakeholder and decision-maker perceptions and biases (Dias et al., 2018; Engler et al., 2019; Phan et al., 2019; Fulton, 2021) in a transparent modelling environment, thereby facilitating consensus and impartiality (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Increasing computational efficiency means that these methods can enable different approaches to be addressed and different descriptive and prescriptive models to be included within a single probabilistic environment, which also can be updated in iterative processes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Scenarios and pathways, combined with elicitation methods, are becoming widely used to assess adaptation and resilience strategies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
They can support the consideration of a wide range of alternative possible futures (Catenacci and Giupponi, 2013; Jäger et al., 2018), enabling identification of potential path dependencies caused by adaptation options (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Trade-offs are often directly compared in cost–benefit analyses which require rigorous estimation of the monetised costs and benefits, where monetisation is feasible and values uncontested (such as for infrastructure) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reducing risk and building resilience under the context of these types of wicked problems require asking ‘what if’ questions about the future, remaining flexible in the face of uncertainty and seeking out policies that provide good outcomes no matter what the future climate might bring (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In these cases, trade- offs can be assessed and options can be prioritised through iterative decision-making processes, such as multi-criteria decision-making, robust decision-making and dynamic adaptation pathway planning (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptive feedback management is important for managing climate risks that fall within the Cynefin context of chaos, relying on observations and indicators to learn about the system and to trigger actions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
It has been a valued approach for managing wildfish fisheries in many oceans (high confidence) (Fulton et al., 2019; Hollowed et al., 2020; Bahri et al., 2021) and is important for responding to the challenges of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
While the benefits of investment in data and assessments can outweigh the costs of implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
An emerging field in adapting fisheries to climate change is to embed the decision- making system in the scenario models in order to assess the capability of feedback management (decision-making, monitoring and capacity for adjustment of the options over time) to achieve satisfactory trade- offs among the objectives of the different stakeholders (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Since AR5, recognition of the importance of using integrated adaptation to improve climate risk management across the nexus between many sectors and across regions has increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This was highlighted in the Special Report on Climate Change and Land (Hurlbert et al., 2019); advanced planning and integration of adaptation responses are needed over many levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The complexity of managing this nexus may be compounded by the potential for antagonistic or synergistic effects among and between climate impacts, and changes arising from local sectoral activities and independent adaptation responses to those risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Literature assessed in sectoral and regional chapters of this report present several examples of potential risks to achieving development goals under climate change, at global as well as national and local levels (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Deep uncertainty approaches enhance the value of monitoring to detect signals of change in a timely manner (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
For early warning signals to be decision relevant, they need to have institutional connectivity to enable action (Haasnoot et al., 2018; Sections 1.4, 11.4, 11.7; Table 11.18) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Even at the lowest emissions scenarios, some local species will become extinct, but estimates of extinction risk are highly uncertain, typically varying by factors of two to three even for one species (Section 2.5) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In view of these multiple and diverse examples, it is evident that the application of deep uncertainty methods is enabling decisions to be made in a timely manner that avoid foreseeable and undesirable outcomes and take opportunities as they arise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Prospects for adaptation decision-making Deep uncertainty is increasingly salient for decision-making as recognition of climate-related risks and related uncertainties has increased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These risks can compound and cascade to become new risks, increasing the breadth, frequency and severity of climate change impacts and the consequently increasing scale and scope of adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Overall, there is growing evidence that effective implementation of strategies developed for deeply uncertain problems require adequate mandates and funding frameworks, preparedness and disaster response plans, and monitoring and evaluation of the strategy outcomes, against how the future unfolds (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Collaborative and adaptive governance arrangements, and education and awareness raising, promote learning environments for community engagement, and are essential for the effective implementation of robust adaptation plans (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The importance of supportive governance arrangements is re- iterated widely across regional and sectoral chapters in this report, in multiple different contexts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
The successful implementation of national and sub-national climate change and related policies and strategies are often contingent upon the underlying legislative framework empowering, mandating or guiding their review, implementation and enforcement (Averchenkova and Matikainen, 2017; Scotford et al., 2017) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Substantial developments in adaptation policy have occurred since AR5 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Capacity is a necessary enabling condition for knowledge to be put to use in adaptation activities (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, there is wide agreement across these definitions that climate finance refers to financial resources devoted to addressing climate change, both mitigation and adaptation to current and projected climate change, and that these resources can come from both public and private sources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Finance can be delivered through a range of instruments including grants, concessional and non-concessional debt, and internal budget reallocations (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nonetheless, there remain differences of opinion on the types of finance that should count towards this goal, with several issues identified (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Progress towards the 100 Billion target has shown an upward trend over the last several years (high confidence), but will fall short in 2020, even when the most generous criteria are included (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The distribution between adaptation and mitigation has remained strongly weighted towards mitigation, although the proportion allocated to adaptation has increased from 17–25% in 2013/2014 to 19–30% in 2017/2018 (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Adaptation finance needs Estimates of global, regional or national finance needs for adaptation and resilience vary depending on both analysis approach, the level of climate change, and the geographic and sectoral scope of analysis (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Recent case studies and global level analyses continue to support the conclusion in IPCC AR5 WGII Chapter 17 (Chambwera et al., 2014) that the benefits of adaptation generally remain larger than the costs (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Across these different sources, the main instruments used are grants, concessional debt, market debt, internal budget allocation, insurance, as well as personal savings in households (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The proportion of finance allocated to adaptation has remained small throughout, between 4% and 8% (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The large majority of tracked adaptation finance is from public sources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Literature indicates the importance of effective governance for promoting integration of local and practitioner knowledge with scientific knowledge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Co-production promotes iterative dialogue, experimentation, the tailoring of knowledge to context, needs and priorities, and learning, often promoting integration of Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge and practitioner knowledge with scientific knowledge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate services are more effective and more widely used when they are tailored to specific decisions and decision makers (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Sustained iterative engagement between climate information users, producers and translators can improve the quality of the information and the decision-making and avoid maladaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
It has been noted that some climate services, such as weather forecasts and early warnings, are an example of a public good, best provided by public agencies (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Evidence from many sectors (including water (Section 4.5.2), ocean and coastal ecosystems (Section 3.6.2), and agriculture (Section 5.4.2) and regions (including Africa [Section 9.8.4], Asia [Section 10.4.6] and North America [Section 10.4.5] shows that building capacity (e.g., adaptive capacity, institutional capacity, education/training in human capacity) can support adaptation and limited governance capacity can constrain it (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A moderate level of urgency serves as an important driver of climate action, but both high and low levels of urgency impede response (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
First, greater levels of response to climate change- induced challenges can be motivated by communication strategies that move decision makers from low to moderate levels of urgency (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Second, very high levels of urgency are a barrier to effective action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)