rlacombe/ClimateX huggingface dataset:
Growing public perception and adaptation knowledge in public and private sectors, the increasing number of policy and legal frameworks, and dedicated spending on adaptation are all clear indications that the availability of options has expanded (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Many cities are taking adaptation action, but with large differences in level of ambition and implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Observed adaptation actions are largely incremental with only a few examples of local transformative action; adaptation actions have demonstrated different degrees of effectiveness in reducing impacts and feasibility of implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A gap remains between planning and implementation of adaptation action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming in Europe will continue to rise faster than the global mean, widening risk disparities across Europe in the 21st century (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Four key risks (KR) have been identified for Europe, with most becoming more severe at 2°C global warming levels (GWL) compared with 1.5°C GWL in scenarios with low to medium adaptation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
From 3°C GWL and even with high adaptation, severe risks remain for many sectors in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR1: The number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress will increase two- to threefold at 3°C compared with 1.5°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risk consequences will become severe more rapidly in Southern and Western Central Europe and urban areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Thermal comfort hours during summer will decrease significantly (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Above 3°C GWL, there are limits to the adaptation potential of people and existing health systems, particularly in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and areas where health systems are under pressure (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
KR1: Warming will decrease suitable habitat space for current terrestrial and marine ecosystems and irreversibly change their composition, increasing in severity above 2°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe, threatening biodiversity and carbon sinks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation options (e.g., coastal infrastructure and NbS) will result in risks for the integrity and function of ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
KR2: Due to a combination of heat and drought, substantive agricultural production losses are projected for most European areas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by gains in Northern Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Yields of some crops (e.g., wheat) may increase in Northern Europe if warming does not exceed 2°C (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
KR3: Risk of water scarcity will become high at 1.5°C and very high at 3°C GWL in Southern Europe (high confidence), and increase from moderate to high in Western Central Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In Southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be exposed to water scarcity at 2°C GWL; under 3°C GWL, this risk will double, and significant economic losses in water- and energy-dependent sectors may arise (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
KR4: Due to warming, changes in precipitation and sea level rise (SLR), risks to people and infrastructures from coastal, riverine and pluvial flooding will increase in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks of inundation and extreme flooding will increase with the accelerating pace of SLR along Europe’s coasts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Coastal flood damage is projected to increase at least tenfold by the end of the 21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation and mitigation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
European cities are hotspots for multiple risks of increasing temperatures and extreme heat, floods and droughts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Warming beyond 2°C GWL is projected to result in widespread impacts on infrastructure and businesses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
These impacts include increased risks for energy supply (high confidence) and transport infrastructure (medium confidence), increases in air conditioning needs (very high confidence) and high water demand (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
European regions are affected by multiple key risks, with more severe consequences in the south than in the north (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
There is high confidence that consequences for socioeconomic and natural systems will be substantial: the number of people exposed to KRs and economic losses are projected to at least double at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The risks resulting from changes in climatic and non-climatic drivers in many sectors is a key gap in knowledge (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics (e.g., very likely).Climate risks from outside Europe are emerging due to a combination of the position of European countries in the global supply chain and shared resources (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Exposure of European countries to inter-regional risks can be reduced by international governance and collaboration on adaptation in other regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
There are a growing range of adaptation options available today to deal with future climate risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Nature-based Solutions for flood protection and heat alleviation are themselves under threat from warming, extreme heat, drought and SLR (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In many parts of Europe, existing and planned adaptation measures are not sufficient to avoid the residual risk, especially beyond 1.5° C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Residual risk can result in losses of habitat and ecosystem services, heat related deaths (KR1), crop failures (KR2), water rationing during droughts in Southern Europe (KR3) and loss of land (KR4) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 3°C GWL and beyond, a combination of many, maybe even all, adaptation options are needed, including transformational changes, to reduce residual risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Although adaptation is happening across Europe, it is not implemented at the scale, depth and speed needed to avoid the risks (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Forward-looking and adaptive planning can prevent path dependencies and maladaptation, and ensure timely action (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Most of the adaptation options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources, creating competition and trade-offs, also with mitigation options and socioeconomic developments (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Several windows of opportunity emerge to accelerate climate resilient development (CRD) (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These windows can be used to accelerate action through mainstreaming and transformational actions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Private-sector adaptation takes place mostly in response to extreme events or regulatory, shareholder or consumer pressures and incentives (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond short-term planning and ensuring timely and adequate implementation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
To close the adaptation gap, political commitment, persistence and consistent action across scales of government, and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital, is key (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Mean and maximum temperatures, frequencies of warm days and nights, and heatwaves have increased since 1950, while the corresponding cold indices have decreased (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Average warming will be larger than the global mean in all of Europe, with largest winter warming in NEU and EEU and largest summer warming in MED (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections suggest a substantial reduction in European ice glacier volumes and in snow cover below elevations of 1500–2000 m, as well as further permafrost thawing and degradation, during the 21st century, even at a low GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The assessment of climate change in WGI AR6 concludes that during recent decades mean precipitation has increased over NEU, WCE and EEU, while magnitude and sign of observed trends depend substantially on time period and study region in MED (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Precipitation extremes have increased in NEU and EEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For >2°C GWL, of mean precipitation in NEU in winter is increasing and decreasing in MED in summer (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
A widespread increase of precipitation extremes is projected for >2°C GWL for all sub-regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
MED is projected to be most affected within Europe with all types of droughts increasing for 1.5°C (medium confidence) and 4°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
At 4°C GWL, hydrological droughts in NEU, WCE and EEU will increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Projections for the 21st century show increases in storms across all of Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Salinity has increased in the SEUS and decreased in NEUS and is projected to continue (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This SLR will very likely continue to increase during the 21st century (Figure 13.4k,l) (high confidence), with regional deviations from global mean SLR (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Extreme water levels, coastal floods and sandy coastline recession are projected to increase along many European coastlines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Without further adaptation (Section 13.2.2), flood risks along Europe’s low-lying coasts and estuaries will increase due to SLR compounded by storm surges, rainfall and river runoff (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
SLR will increase coastal erosion of sandy shorelines (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projections indicate a continuation of the observed trends of river flood hazards in WCE (high confidence) of 10% at 2°C GWL and 18% at 4.4°C GWL, and a decrease in NEU and SEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected to increase (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This path dependency limits the solution space and may hamper implementation of transformative measures, such as land-use change, to accommodate the water system (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
A combination with structural defences could reduce risk in urbanised coastal regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Retreat is rarely applied in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While measures taken at household level can reduce the risk of flooding, there is often insufficient investment (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Early warning systems, insurance and behaviour change can complement protect and accommodate measures to limit residual risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increasing future flood risks due to both climatic and socioeconomic change could overburden government budgets (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Wastewater reuse is considered a low-cost and effective measure where wastewater is available (Lavrnic et al., 2017; De Roo et al., 2020), but public acceptance for domestic reuse is presently limited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Increased irrigation efficiency has reduced water scarcity, particularly in SEU (Section 13.5; De Roo et al., 2020), and occur at farm level in WCE and NEU (Papadaskalopoulou et al., 2015b; van Duinen et al., 2015; Rey et al., 2017) but come with increasing path dependency on supply and trade-offs which may not be sustainable in the long term (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Interacting with climate change are non-climatic hazards, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, overexploitation, water abstraction, nutrient enrichment and pollution, all of which reduce resilience of biotas and ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Extirpation (e.g., local losses of species) have been observed in response to climate change in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Range shifts are leading to northward and upwards expansions of warm-adapted taxa (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Microclimatic variability in some locations can buffer warming impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The timing of many processes, including spring leaf unfolding, autumn senescence and flight rhythms, have changed in response to changes in seasonal temperatures, water and light availability (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Land- use changes will increase extirpation and extinction risk (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: very high)
Warming <1.5°C GWL would limit risks to biodiversity, while 4°C GWL and intensive land use could lead to a loss of suitable climate and habitat space for most species (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Average wetland area is not projected to change at 1.7°C GWL across Europe, while for >4°C GWL expanding sites in NEU are not sufficient to balance losses in SEU and WCE (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The largest losses of suitable climatic conditions are projected for plants and insects, with different taxon-specific regions of highest risk, while proportions of species projected to lose suitable climates are lower for other groups (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Temperatures >1.5°C GWL will lead to a progressive subtropicalisation in SEU, expanding into WCE at >3°C GWL, a northward shift in the temperate domain into NEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Risks emerging from climate change for phenology are uncertain, given asynchrony between species, taxa and trophic responses (Thackeray et al., 2016; Posledovich et al., 2018; Keogan et al., 2021) and the complexity of phenological events and their cues (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Fire hazard conditions, including heatwaves (Boer et al., 2017), increased throughout Europe from 1980 to 2019 (Figure 13.10), with substantive increases in SEU and WCE (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Forest expansion in boreal regions results in net warming (Bright et al., 2017), possibly influencing cloud formation and rainfall patterns (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
If not managed through increased reforestation and/or revegetation or peatland restoration, future climate-change impacts will progressively limit the climate regulation capacity of European terrestrial ecosystems (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Predominantly positive CO 2 fertilisation effects at current warming will change into increasingly negative effects of warming and drought on forests at higher temperatures (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Declines in pollinator ranges in response to climate change are occurring for many groups in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected climate impacts on pollinators show mixed responses across Europe but are greater under 3°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Soil erosion varies across Europe, with higher rates in parts of SEU and WCE, but lower rates in NEU (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Projected increase in rainfall could increase soil erosion, while warming enhances vegetation cover, leading to overall mixed responses (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Lowering vulnerability by reducing other anthropogenic impacts (Gillingham et al., 2015), such as land-use change, habitat fragmentation (Eigenbrod et al., 2015; Oliver et al., 2017; Wessely et al., 2017), pollution and deforestation (Chapter 2), enhances adaptation capacity and biodiversity conservation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Protected areas, such as the EU Natura 2000 network, have contributed to biodiversity protection (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Most protected areas are static and thus do not take species migration into consideration (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Their success will depend on consideration of the future climate niche when restoring peatlands (Bellis et al., 2021) or long-lived species with limited mobility (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
The capacity to implement and maintain these options remains limited, however (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Ecosystem-based adaptations (EbA) and NbS that restore or recreate ecosystems, build resilience and produce synergies with adaptation and mitigation in other sectors are increasingly used in Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Appropriately implemented ecosystem-based mitigation, such as reforestation with climate-resilient native species (Section 13.3.1.4), peatland and wetland restoration, and agroecology (Section 13.5.2), can enhance carbon sequestration or storage (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Trade-offs between ecosystem protection, their services and human adaptation and mitigation needs can generate challenges, such as loss of habitats, increased emissions from restored wetlands (Günther et al., 2020) and conflicts between carbon capture services, and provisioning of bioenergy, food, timber and water (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The solution space for responding to climate-change risks for terrestrial ecosystems has increased in parts of Europe (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Despite an expanding solution space, widespread implementation and monitoring of natural and planned adaptation across Europe is currently limited, due to high management costs, undervaluation of nature, and conservation laws and regulations that do not consider species shifts under future socioeconomic and climatic changes (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Limited financial resources prevent widespread implementation of large-scale and connected conservation areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are rarely integrated into regional and local land-use planning, land development plans, and agro-system management (medium confidence) (Nila et al., 2019; Heikkinen et al., 2020a).13.3.3 Knowledge Gaps Despite growing evidence of climate-change impacts and risks, including attributed changes to terrestrial ecosystems (Section 13.10.1), this information is geographically not equally distributed, leaving clear gaps for some processes or regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
For processes such as wildfire, the Fire Weather index (Section 13.3.1.3) suggests increasing risk of fires in Europe, but robust projections on incidents and magnitudes of wildfire and their impacts on ecosystems and other sectors is currently limited, particularly for NEU, EEU and WCE (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
This creates uncertainty about the emergence of extinctions and the magnitudes of impacts for European ecosystems and the services they provide (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Furthermore, adaptation actions will depend on local implementation and benefit from being assessed using cultural and Indigenous knowledge where applicable, but this is hardly studied (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Particularly habitat loss in shallow coastal waters and at the coasts themselves, and northward distribution shifts of populations and communities, are evident across all European marine sub-regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Marine heatwaves have had severe ecological impacts in SEUS (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Range contractions, extirpations (medium confidence) (Smale, 2020) and species redistributions have been observed (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Reductions in growth and reproductive success of calcifying species are not yet unambiguously detected and attributed in European seas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Biodiversity changes depend on region, habitat and taxon (medium confidence) (Figure 13.11) overall resulting in the redistribution of biodiversity in Europe (García Molinos et al., 2016), and biodiversity declines in some sub-regions (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
In TEUS, increased water-column stratification (Section 13.1) and decreasing eutrophication, result in reduced primary production (high confidence) (Figure 13.11; Capuzzo et al., 2018) and productivity at higher trophic levels (high confidence) (Free et al., 2019), while in NEUS sea ice decline has resulted in primary production increase by 40–60% (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Climate-related deoxygenation impacts are small in most European waters (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Here warming and eutrophication have altered ecosystem functioning (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Since the capacity of natural systems for autonomous adaptation is limited (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
At 1.5°C GWL, particularly in winter, Mediterranean coastal fish communities are projected to lose ~10% of species, increasing to ~60% at 4°C GWL (Dahlke et al., 2020), exacerbating regime shifts linked to overexploitation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Marine primary production is projected to further decrease by 2100 in most European seas between 0.3% at 1.5°C GWL to 2.7% at 4°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
Ocean acidification and its biological and ecological risks are projected to rise in European waters by impeding growth and reproductive success of vulnerable calcifying organisms (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Coralline algae are projected to reduce skeletal performance at 3°C GWL, with negative consequences for habitat formation (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Regionally (Brodie et al., 2014), differences in species-specific vulnerability will result in community shifts from calcifying macroalgae (medium confidence) (Ragazzola et al., 2013) to non-calcifying macroalgae (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)
However, if not supported by sufficient food availability (Thomsen et al., 2013; Clements and Darrow, 2018), such energy reallocation will negatively impact growth or reproduction (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
This suggests that acidification risks will be amplified by increased stratification and reduced primary production (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The emergence of harmful algal blooms and pathogens at higher GWLs is unclear across all European seas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Elevated CO2 levels predicted at 4°C GWL will affect the C/N ratio of organic-matter export and, hence, the efficiency of the biological pump (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) will benefit with enhanced larval growth and survival from indirect food- web effects (Sswat et al., 2018a), whereas Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) will face overall negative impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Losses are projected for Posidonia oceanica seagrass habitats in the Mediterranean by up to 75% at 2.5°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: low)
For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the critical rate of 6–10 mm yr–1, at which intertidal flats will start to ‘drown’, will be reached by 2030 at 1.5°C GWL (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
European coastal zones provided a total of 494 billion EUR of ecosystem services in 2018, and 4.2–5.1% of this value will be lost due to coastal erosion by 2100 at 2.5°C and 4.6°C GWL, respectively (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
These MPAs provide protection from local stressors, such as commercial exploitation, and enhance the resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems, thus lessening the impacts of climate change (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
In some partially protected MPAs, local stressors, such as fishing, are higher than adjacent unprotected areas (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
Conservation approaches (e.g., MPAs, climate refugia), habitat restoration efforts (Bekkby et al., 2020) and further ecosystem-based management policies do support alleviation of, or adaptation to, climate-change impacts (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
While rising sea levels will also directly threaten intertidal and beach ecosystems, coastal wetlands will benefit (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The ‘Blue Growth’ strategy of the European Commission with the aim to increase offshore activities (European Comission, 2012) will increase the pressures on the marine environments (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: medium)
The introduction of novel hard-substrate intertidal habitats has, and will continue to have, profound ecological ramifications for marine systems, including hydrodynamic changes, stepping stones for non-native species, noise and vibration, and changes in the food web (IPCC AR6_WGII, confidence: high)