I think you are right that winning in 2019 is pretty tough, but 2023 is much better.  Nonetheless I can see the Liberals being reduced to a minority as its not just the Tories there is also the NDP who do have some capable candidates like Jagmeet Singh who could siphon off many progressive Liberals.  Also a lot depends on voter turnout, otherwise if voter turnout stays as high Trudeau will probably get back in, but if it falls enough that will help the Tories as Tory supporters may be smaller in numbers but are more likely to vote so like in US and UK, generally high turnout favours progressive parties and low turnout more conservative ones.

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