West Virginia Code of State Rules › Agency 76 - Senior Services › Title 76 - INTERPRETIVE RULE WEST VIRGINIA BUREAU OF SENIOR SERVICES › Series 76-03 - WV State Plan For Aging Programs › Section 76-03-2 - Economic Projections and Impact

Current through Register Vol. XLI, No. 28, July 12, 2024
Long-term Projections for Jobs in Industries and
				  Occupations
According to the United States Census Bureau, West
				  Virginia's population totaled 1,852,994 during the last conducted census in
				  2010. The total number of West Virginians age 55 and older totaled 562,229,
				  comprising 30.4% of the state's total population. Table 1 illustrates the total
				  population categorized by age ranges.
Table 1
Total Population Categorized by Age Range
Age Range
Total
Percentage
55 to 59
139,368
7.5%
60 to 64 years
125,457
6.8%
65 to 69 years
91,728
5%
70 to 74 years
71,792
3.9%
75 to 79 years
54,725
3%
80 to 84 years
43,238
2.3%
85 years and over
35,921
1.9%
(Source: Census Bureau, fact finder, 2010)
Figure 1 shows the age distribution of West Virginia's
				  working age population in all industries that are broken down into twenty
				  sectors. These sectors include Finance and Insurance; Real Estate;
				  Professional; Scientific, and Technical Services; Management of Companies and
				  Enterprises; Administrative Support; Waste Management and Remediation Services;
				  Educational Services; Health Care and Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment,
				  and Recreation; Accommodation and Food Services; Other Services; and Public
				  Administration.
Figure 2 narrows down the population results showing only
				  SCSEP's target audience (55+) in all industries. As depicted in the figures,
				  there is evidence of continuous increase in the representation of (55+) seniors
				  entering the workforce.
Figure 1
.
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Figure 2
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(Source: Figure 1 & 2, QWI Explorer Appendix
				  97-2018)
According to the Quarterly Workforce Indications (QWI), out
				  of the twenty industries, the industry sectors that represented the largest
				  numbers of employed seniors during 2018 were Health Care and Social Assistance
				  (20%), Education Services (13%), Retail Trade (11%) and Manufacturing (8%).
				  These sectors were the top four employers for older workers 55+ during 2018.
				  Table 2 illustrates the industries during 2018 that had the largest number of
				  older workers.
Table 2 Industry Sector Employment of Older Working
				  West Virginians 55+ in 2018
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(Source: Table 2; QWI, NAICS Sectors, 2018)
Information from the QWI was narrowed down to display which
				  of the 20 Industry Sectors had the highest percentage of hiring older workers
				  (55+). Industry Sectors with the largest percent of new hires of older workers
				  during 2018 were Construction (17%), Health Care and Social Assistance (11%)
				  and Retail Trade (10%). Table 3 illustrates the industries during 2018 that had
				  the largest number of 55+ seniors.
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(Source: QWI, NCAICS Sectors, 2018)
From the information gathered in Table 3, the staffing
				  patterns from the top three Industry Sectors of New Hires show employment in
				  Construction (17%), Healthcare and Social Assistance (11%) and Retail Trade
				  (10%). We can forecast that these industries will continue to hire older
				  workers, thus providing employment opportunities in the following Equal
				  Employment Opportunities (EEO) Occupations Groups based off the Industry Sector
				  of New Hires: Transportation, Natural Resources, Contruction & Maintenance
				  Occupations, Sales and Office Occupations, Service Occupations, Education,
				  Legal, Community Service, Arts & Media Occupations, Management, Business
				  & Science. EEO Occupational Groups are categorized into 14 groups and
				  further categorized into nine job categories.
Table 4
illustrates
				  the twelve Occupational Groups that were narrowed down from the top three
				  Industries.
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( Source: EEO Tabulation 2006-2010 (5yr ACS)
Strategic Training Plan for Participants to be
				  placed in Unsubsidized Employment
In order to maximize SCSEP participant placement in
				  unsubsidized employment in high demand jobs, the statewide SCSEP network will
				  focus their on-the-job training opportunities and host agency recruitment
				  efforts on agencies that can provide training for the types of occupations that
				  are listed in
Table 4
that are forecasted based on Industry Sector
				  of New Hires 2018 to hire older workers.
Training opportunities will be increased to provide a variety
				  of opportunities that have a higher percentage of developing into unsubsidized
				  employment. Training for computer literacy will continue to be at the
				  forefront, as this is a necessity in a majority of the occupations that
				  forecast continued employment. Computer training opportunities are provided
				  through many entities, such as local American Job Centers (AJC), local
				  Community Colleges, and public libraries. When appropriate, program
				  coordinators and host agencies will encourage participation in specialized
				  computer training opportunities.
Access to training classes offered by the local American Job
				  Center and other non-profit organizations will help increase the skills that
				  enrollees will need to continue to pursue employment.
Another strategy for older workers to be placed into
				  unsubsidized employment would be to look into occupations that require minimum
				  training, as this would help the statewide SCSEP meet the employment goals
				  listed in the core measures that are set forth by DOL.
State Current and Projected Employment
				  Opportunities
Per the Workforce West Virginia (WFWV), Labor Market
				  Information (LMI) Ten(10) year projections of the high demand occupations that
				  require minimum education and fit our SCSEP participants' education and
				  training levels include the following:
* Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
* Customer Service Clerks
* Social and Human Service Assistants
* Community Health Workers
* Animal Caretakers
* Post Secondary School
* Personal Care Aides
* Home Health Aides
* Rehabilitation
* Janitors
* Counter Attendants
Some of these occupations require less than a high school
				  education. Others require a high school diploma or some college. Per the data
				  received from SPARQ, the majority of our participants meet the education
				  requirements for the jobs listed above. Hourly wages for the listed occupations
				  start at a minimum of $10.41.
Table 5
Education
PY 18 Q4 Final YTD %
8th grade and under
2
9th grade -
							 11th grade
15
High school Diploma
49
1-3 years college
21
Post- Secondary certificate
0
Associate's Degree
1
Bachelor's Degree or equivalent
11
Some graduate School
1
Master's Degree
1
Doctoral Degree
0
( Source: SPARQ, Quarterly Progress Report Program Year 2018,
				  Quarter 4 Final)
Table 5a
provides employment projections based
				  on eight education levels in West Virginia.
Table 5A:
Projections by Level of
				  Education
(Figure shows employment projections based on eight education
				  levels for the year 2026.)
2016-2026 Occupational Projections by Level of
							 Education
Education Level
2016
Employment
2016% of
Workforce
2026 Projected Employment
2026% of
Workforce
Less than high school
204,905
27.18%
217,467
27.34%
High school diploma or equivalent
321,770
42.68%
330,507
41.55%
Some college, no degree
935
0.12%
1,036
0.13%
Postsecondary non- degree award
27,534
3.65%
29,974
3.77%
Associate degree
29,988
3.98%
32,412
4.07%
Bachelor's degree
75,584
10.02%
81,073
10.19%
Master's degree
12,755
1.69%
14,523
1.83%
Doctoral or professional degree
10,027
1.33%
11,012
1.38%
Not applicable
70,476
9.35%
77,496
9.74%
Total
753,974
795,500
(Source: Workforce West Virginia, Occupational Employment
				  Statistics (OES)
Table 6
illustrates the required level of
				  education, on-the job training, work experience required, and growth rate of
				  each occupation.
Table 6
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( Source: WV LMI Long term Occupation Projections
				  2016-2026)
The Workforce West Virginia (WFWV) office divides the state
				  into seven geographic regions that covers all 55 counties shown on the map in
				  Appendix B. As shown below, each region shows their specific region's greatest
				  growth occupation. Not only does the WFWV consist of seven (7) geographic
				  regions, the seven (7) regions each have at least one comprehensive AJC, at
				  minimum. In total, the seven regions hold Ten (10) comprehensive centers, five
				  (5) satellite centers and seventeen (17) affiliate sites throughout the State.
				  One of the goals of the AJCWV is to offer job seekers and employers ready
				  access to the many workforce development resources available in a local region.
				  The WVWF office offering resources equally across the state as stated above,
				  The SCSEP Network will continue to utilize resources such as transition
				  programs, adult displacement resources, resume enhancement, computer classes,
				  mock interviews and all other events that are offered at the AJCWV.
Within the seven (7) regions that WFWV has divided the state
				  into, each region shows that Host Agency recruitment and enrollee training will
				  have to be individualized to adapt to that particular Region's occupational
				  demands. The SCSEP Network will maintain working relationships with all WFWV
				  offices to obtain relevant employment and training information that pertains to
				  that Region. Sub-grantees will continue to inform enrollees of their specific
				  region's occupational projections.
WIOA Region 1 Occupational Employment
							 Projections 2016-2026
Occupational Projects 2016-2026
WIOA 1
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Home Health Aides
Photographers
Occupational Therapy Assistants
Legal Secretaries
Nurse Practitioners
Mine Shuttle Car Operators
Physician Assistants
Switchboard Operations, Including Answering
							 Service
Personal Care Aides
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative
							 Assistants
WIOA Region 2 Occupational Employment
							 Projections 2016-2026
Occupational Projects 2016-2026
WIOA 2
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Occupational Therapy Assistants
Legal Secretaries
Nurse Practitioners
Mine Shuttle Car Operators
Physician Assistants
Switchboard Operations, Including Answering Service
Physical Therapist Assistants
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative
							 Assistants
Massage Therapists
Labor Relations Specialist
WIOA Region 3 Occupational Employment
							 Projections 2016-2026
Occupational Projects 2016-2026
WIOA 3
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Personal Care Aides
Computer Operators
Occupational Therapy Assistants
Legal Secretaries
Nurse Practitioners
Medical Transcriptionists
Physician Assistants
Data Entery Keyrs
Operations Research Analysts
Switchboard Operations, Including Answering
							 Service
WIOA Region 4 Occupational Employment
							 Projections 2016-2026
Occupational Projects 2016-2026
WIOA 4
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Home Health Aides
Legal Secretaries
Personal Care Aides
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative
							 Assistants
Nurse Practitioners
Medical Transcriptionists
Occupational Therapy Assistants
Labor Relations Specialist
Respiratory Therapists
Floral Designers
WIOA Region 5 Occupational Projects
							 2016-2026
Occupational Projects 2016-2026
WIOA 5
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Home Health Aides
Data Entry Keyrs
Personal Care Aides
Legal Secretaries
Nurse Practitioners
Mine Shuttle Car Operators
Physician Assistants
Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal
							 Services
Software Developers, Applications
Labor Relations Specialist
WIOA Region 6 Occupational Projects
							 2016-2026
Occupational Projects
							 2016-2026
WIOA 6
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Home Health Aides
Data Entry Keyrs
Personal Care Aides
Legal Secretaries
Nurse Practitioners
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative
							 Assistants
Software Developers, Applications
Mine Shuttle Car Operators
Statisticians
Medical Transcriptionists
WIOA Region 7 Occupational Projects
							 2016-2026
Occupational Projects
							 2016-2026
WIOA 7
Greatest Growth Occupations
Greatest Declining Occupations
Nurse Practitioners
Legal Secretaries
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters,
							 Operators, and Tenders
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative
							 Assistants
Personal Care Aides
Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other
Healthcare Social Workers
Team Assemblers
Software Developers, Applications
Floral Designers